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How Many COVID Fatalities Died in the Prime of Their Careers?
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A question that is still largely unanswered about the large death toll from the coronavirus is how much have we lost in terms of societal contribution from people with the prime of their careers still ahead of them.

For example, will anybody write a famous song about the young geniuses struck down by COVID the way “American Pie” commemorates the plane crash that killed Buddy Holly, age 22, and Ritchie “La Bamba” Valens, then only 17 and on a trajectory to perhaps be the most famous Mexican-American ever.

Wikipedia has a “List of Fatalities from Aviation Accidents” of people with their own Wikipedia pages who died in a crash (leaving out military shootdowns, but including 9-11 victims like Todd Beamer). They list 220 Americans. Of course, many are aviators like Amelia Earhart and Dick Bong. Many are race car drivers. And many are musicians. Dying in a plane crash is a sizable theme of 20th Century American music.

Besides Holly, Valens, and the Big Bopper, here are some of the American musicians who died in their primes: Glenn Miller 1944 age 40, Patsy Cline 1963 age 30, Otis Redding 1967 age 26, Jim Croce 1973 age 30, Ronnie Van Zant 1977 age 29, Randy Rhoads 1982 age 25, Stevie Ray Vaughan 1990 age 35, and Aaliyah 2001 age 22. And that’s leaving out somewhat older musicians like John Denver (age 53) and Ricky Nelson (age 45).

In short, American music lost a lot from plane crashes.

There is probably a correlation between peak of career and dying in a plane crash because concert tours are likely booked more densely when your act is hot, so there is more motivation to take a risky flight to get to the next stop early rather than take the tour bus.

UK musicians haven’t died as often in plane crashes, probably because it’s a smaller country.

How many Americans have ever died in aircraft accidents? I’m guessing it’s not that different from COVID deaths so far. I’ve seen an estimate of 21,000 non-combat aircraft deaths during WWII, which I imagine was a peak period for flying accidents due to the stress of events.

So, it’s not unreasonable to compare losses from aircraft accidents to losses from coronavirus.

To be crass about it, COVID may win on quantity but so far plane crashes are winning on quality.

Here’s the current version of Wikipedia’s

List of deaths due to COVID-19

This is a list of notable people who have died from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), as a result of infection by the virus SARS-CoV-2 during the COVID-19 pandemic.

This article is about deaths of notable people. …This is a dynamic list and may never be able to satisfy particular standards for completeness. You can help by expanding it with reliably sourced entries.

I think their working definition of “notable” is having a Wikipedia page already, although I can’t confirm that. This list appears to be updated about a half dozen times per day, so it’s not abandoned. How complete it is, I don’t know, but it seems complete for the famous cases I can recall.

One of my usual analytical techniques from the bag of tricks I’ve assembled over the decades is to check out my theories against other people’s lists which they assembled for purposes not related to my theory. That way I can’t be accused of cherry-picking my data. (Of course, I still am accused of cherry-picking …)

Below are the 167 more or less American deaths. The table is organized by country of death, so I’m counting everybody who died in the U.S, plus a small number of people whose place of death was not recorded but who are described as Americans. There are a handful of Americans who died abroad whom I am not including because it would have been more work than it was worth.

The lists include live links to the Wikipedia page of the dead person and the Ref. column takes you to a footnote linking you to a news account of the death. So you can read up on the individuals, perhaps find a picture, see what they’ve been doing lately, and do your own analyses.

If you aren’t American, I encourage you to do your own analysis for the country you know best.

Among these 167 deaths, the mean age of death was 78.6 and the median age was 83.0.

These are not, on the whole, hugely famous people. I think I recognized 15 of the 167 names, and I’m reasonably well informed. Many of them were never celebrities but instead high achievers in low profile fields like nephrology or corporate law, or obscure figures in more publicized fields like sports or music.

What strikes me is that only a few of them were struck down in the prime of their careers. Actor Nick Cordero was 41 and working steadily, songwriter Adam Schlesinger was 52 and had recently done excellent work for Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, Herman Cain was 74 and still doing Herman Cain stuff. But your take on this data may differ from mine:

Name Age Occupation Ref. Date
Chris Trousdale 34 Actor and singer [499] 2-Jun
Lynika Strozier 35 Biologist [511] 7-Jun
Fred the Godson 35 DJ and rapper [364] 23-Apr
Nick Cordero 41 Canadian actor [567] 5-Jul
Bruce Williamson 49 Lead singer of The Temptations [686] 6-Sep
Nashom Wooden 50 Drag queen [68] 23-Mar
Ken Snow 50 Soccer player [543] 21-Jun
Anick Jesdanun 51 Technology reporter and editor, first internet writer for the Associated Press [161] 2-Apr
Troy Sneed 52 Gospel musician [388] 27-Apr
Adam Schlesinger 52 Songwriter, member of Fountains of Wayne [152] 1-Apr
Morris Hood III 54 Member of the Michigan Senate (2010–2018) and Michigan House of Representatives (2002–2008) [451] 12-May
Mike Huckaby 54 Deep house DJ [369] 24-Apr
Maria Mercader 54 Television news producer and journalist [117] 29-Mar
Reggie Bagala 54 Member of the Louisiana House of Representatives (since 2020) [240] 9-Apr
Olan Montgomery 56 Actor and artist [192] 4-Apr
Brian Axsmith 57 Paleobotanist and ecology professor [423] 5-May
Scott Erskine 57 Serial killer [562] 3-Jul
Carlos Ernesto Escobar Mejía 57 U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement detainee [367] 24-Apr
Ceybil Jefferies 57 House and R&B vocalist [251] 10-Apr
Orlando McDaniel 59 American football player [100] 27-Mar
Floyd Cardoz 59 Chef and television personality [82] 25-Mar
Lorena Borjas 59 Mexican American transgender and immigrant rights activist [124] 30-Mar
Wallace Roney 59 Jazz trumpeter [141] 31-Mar
H. G. Carrillo 59 Novelist [344] 20-Apr
Joe Diffie 61 Country singer [115] 29-Mar
Tootie Robbins 62 American football player [634] 2-Aug
James Mahoney 62 Pulmonologist and internist [384] 27-Apr
Howard Schoenfield 62 Tennis player [576] 8-Jul
Maurice Berger 63 Chief curator of the Center for Art, Design and Visual Culture [56] 23-Mar
Justa Barrios 63 American home care worker and labor organizer [406] 2 May[a]
Cristina Monet-Palaci 64 Musician [139] 31-Mar
Hal Willner 64 Music producer [231] 7-Apr
David Owen Brooks 65 Convicted murderer, accomplice to serial killer Dean Corll [491] 28-May
Brahm Kanchibhotla 66 Journalist [206] 6-Apr
Noach Dear 66 Justice of the New York Supreme Court (since 2015) [337] 19-Apr
Jerry Givens 67 Executioner and anti-death penalty advocate [280] 13-Apr
Pearson Jordan 69 Barbadian Olympic Sprinter [108] 28-Mar
Mark Blum 69 Actor [81] 25-Mar
Alan Merrill 69 Lead singer of Arrows and songwriter [118] 29-Mar
Philip Foglia 69 Lawyer, civic activist and advocate for Italian American rights issues [351] 21-Apr
Kamala 70 Professional wrestler [648] 9-Aug
Michael Sorkin 71 Architect and critic [93] 26-Mar
Riad Ismat 72 Minister of Culture of Syria (2010–2012) [456] 13-May
Alan Finder 72 Journalist [74] 24-Mar
John Prine 73 Singer and songwriter [225] 7-Apr
Tom Dempsey 73 American football player [185] 4-Apr
James T. Goodrich 73 Professor of Neurosurgery at the Albert Einstein College of Medicine [126] 30-Mar
Herman Cain 74 Business executive, writer, 2012 Presidential candidate and political activist [626] 30-Jul
Bhakti Charu Swami 74 Indian spiritual teacher (International Society for Krishna Consciousness) [563] 4-Jul
William B. Helmreich 74 Professor of Sociology at The Graduate Center, CUNY [106] 28-Mar
Ted Monette 74 FEMA Director of the Office of Federal Coordinating Officer Operations [129] 30-Mar
Bob Glanzer 74 Member of the South Dakota House of Representatives (since 2017) [174] 3-Apr
Tom Seaver 75 Hall of Fame baseball player [676] 31-Aug
Arthur Whistler 75 Professor of Ethnobotany at the University of Hawaii [170] 2-Apr
Roy Horn 75 Member of Siegfried & Roy, stage magician and lion tamer [438] 8-May
Brandis Kemp 76 Actress [564] 4-Jul
Madeline Kripke 76 Book collector [374] 25-Apr
Carole Brookins 76 Executive director of the World Bank (2001–2005) [58] 23-Mar
Patrick Ellis 77 Radio personality [596] 16-Jul
Allen Daviau 77 Cinematographer (E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial, The Color Purple, Empire of the Sun) [302] 15-Apr
Muhammad Sirajul Islam 77 Member of the Jatiya Sangsad (1973–1982) [191] 4-Apr
Stanley Chera 77 Real estate executive [259] 11-Apr
Burton Rose 77 Nephrologist [368] 24-Apr
Bernie Juskiewicz 77 Member of the Vermont House of Representatives (2013–2019) [236] 8-Apr
Dobby Dobson 78 Jamaican reggae singer and record producer [613] 21-Jul
Adlin Mair-Clarke 78 Jamaican Olympic sprinter and hurdler [211] 6-Apr
Robert H. Garff 78 Speaker of the Utah House of Representatives (1985–1987) [116] 29-Mar
Stephen Schwartz 78 Professor of pathology at University of Washington [33] 17-Mar
Stephen Susman 79 Attorney [594] 14-Jul
Rick May 79 Canadian-American voice actor and theatrical performer, director and teacher [239] 8-Apr
Allen Garfield 80 Actor [216] 7-Apr
Steve Dalkowski 80 Baseball player [336] 19-Apr
Wilhelm Burmann 80 German-born ballet master and teacher [132] 30-Mar
Frank A. Howard 81 Member of the Louisiana House of Representatives (2008–2020) [621] 27-Jul
John Pfahl 81 Photographer [308] 15-Apr
Bob Lazier 81 Race car driver [332] 18-Apr
Frank Cullotta 81 Mobster and movie consultant [666] 20-Aug
Terrence McNally 81 Playwright and screenwriter [75] 24-Mar
Thomas Kunz 81 American biologist [282] 13-Apr
Dennis G. Peters 82 Electrochemist [285] 13-Apr
Marv Luster 82 American CFL player [487] 25-May
John Horton Conway 82 British mathematician [260] 11-Apr
Bootsie Barnes 82 Jazz saxophonist [362] 22-Apr
Daniel S. Kemp 83 Organic chemist [409] 2-May
Denis Farkasfalvy 83 Hungarian-born Cistercian abbot and theologian [477] 20-May
Mike Longo 83 Jazz pianist [55] 22-Mar
Trini Lopez 83 Singer and actor [652] 11-Aug
Mary J. Wilson 83 First African-American senior zookeeper at the Maryland Zoo in Baltimore [478] 21-May
Robert Beck 83 Olympic pentathlete and fencer [171] 2-Apr
Stephen F. Williams 83 Judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit (since 1986) [644] 7-Aug
Michael McKinnell 84 Architect [101] 27-Mar
David Boe 84 Organist [390] 28-Apr
Gil Bailey 84 Jamaican radio broadcaster [278] 13-Apr
Henry Grimes 84 Jazz bassist [303] 15-Apr
Milena Jelinek 84 Czech-American screenwriter [306] 15-Apr
Giuseppi Logan 84 Jazz musician [320] 17-Apr
Jack Taylor 84 Member of the Colorado Senate (2000–2008) and House of Representatives (1992–2000) [352] 21-Apr
Rabbi Yehudah Jacobs 84 Mashgiach ruchani at Beth Medrash Govoha [383] 27-Apr
Robert M. Laughlin 85 Anthropologist and linguist. Preserver of the Tzotzil language [493] 28-May
Emilio Allué 85 Spanish-born auxiliary bishop emeritus of Boston [377] 26-Apr
Ellis Marsalis Jr. 85 Jazz pianist [149] 1-Apr
Gene Shay 85 Disc jockey [325] 17-Apr
Nicholas Rinaldi 86 Poet and novelist [490] 27-May
Patricia Bosworth 86 Actress and author [155] 2-Apr
Arlene Stringer-Cuevas 86 Member of the New York City Council (1976–1977) [181] 3-Apr
Joel M. Reed 86 Filmmaker and screenwriter [271] 12-Apr
Iris Love 86 Archaeologist and dog breeder [321] 17-Apr
Jack Lotz 86 Wrestling referee [333] 18-Apr
Bennie G. Adkins 86 United States Army soldier and recipient of the Medal of Honor [317] 17-Apr
Dick Lucas 86 American football player [395] 29-Apr
Kevin Duffy 87 Judge for the U.S. District Court for Southern New York (1972–1998) [146] 1-Apr
Lila Fenwick 87 Chief of the United Nations Human Rights Council [188] 4-Apr
Jim Cross 87 Ice hockey player and coach [407] 2-May
Joel Rogosin 87 Television producer and writer (The Virginian, Ironside, Magnum, P.I.) [355] 21-Apr
David Driskell 88 Visual artist and academic [145] 1-Apr
Bill Mack 88 American singer, songwriter, and radio host [627][628] 31-Jul
Julie Bennett 88 Voice actor [133] 31-Mar
Leib Groner 88 Chabad-Lubavitch Rabbi [218] 7-Apr
Teruyuki Okazaki 88 Japanese karate master [354] 21-Apr
Donald Kennedy 88 Scientist, public administrator, and academic [353] 21-Apr
Yu Lihua 88 Chinese-American writer [401] 1-May
Helen Damico 89 Scholar of Old English literature [291] 14-Apr
Ken Farnum 89 Barbadian-born Jamaican Olympic cyclist [187] 4-Apr
Helène Aylon 89 Ecofeminist artist [203] 6-Apr
Yaakov Perlow 89 Hasidic rabbi [224] 7-Apr
Leila Benitez-McCollum 89 Filipino-American television and radio host [232] 8-Apr
Henry Miller 89 Lawyer and jurist [314] 16-Apr
Arlene Saunders 89 Operatic soprano [323] 17-Apr
Felicia F. Campbell 89 Professor of English at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas [619] 27-Jul
Chaim Dov Keller 90 Haredi rabbi [663] 17-Aug
Margit Feldman 90 Holocaust survivor [294] 14-Apr
Kenneth Church 90 Canadian born Thoroughbred racing jockey [591] 13-Jul
Lee Fierro 91 Actress [199] 5-Apr
Romi Cohn 91 Czechoslovakian-born American rabbi and real estate developer [70] 24-Mar
Dietmar Seyferth 91 German-born American chemist [508][509] 6-Jun
Ann Sullivan 91 Animator [289] 13-Apr
Walter Robb 91 Engineer [65] 23-Mar
Wilson Roosevelt Jerman 91 White House butler to 11 U.S. presidents [466] 16-May
Alan Abel 91 Percussionist and music educator [371] 25-Apr
William H. Gerdts 91 American art historian [295] 14-Apr
Ralph McGehee 92 Intelligence officer [410] 2-May
Tommy DeVito 92 Musician, founding member of The Four Seasons [709] 21-Sep
Arnold Demain 92 Professor of Industrial Microbiology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology [172] 3-Apr
Aaron Rubashkin 92 Businessman [166] 2-Apr
Lee Konitz 92 Jazz composer and alto saxophonist [307] 15-Apr
Motoko Fujishiro Huthwaite 92 Preservationist (Monuments Men) [421] 4-May
Benjamin Levin 93 Lithuanian-born Israeli partisan and Holocaust survivor [283] 13-Apr
Bill Pursell 94 Composer [680] 3-Sep
William Wolf 94 Film and theater critic [111] 28-Mar
Beryl Bernay 94 Journalist and children’s television creator [112] 29-Mar
Ella King Russell Torrey 94 Human rights activist and aide to Eleanor Roosevelt [299] 14-Apr
Bucky Pizzarelli 94 Jazz guitarist [151] 1-Apr
Forrest Compton 94 Actor [184] 4-Apr
Richard Passman 94 Aeronautical engineer and space scientist [150] 1-Apr
Stephen Sulyk 95 Ukrainian Catholic Archeparch emeritus of Philadelphia [209] 6-Apr
Martin S. Fox 95 American publisher [234] 8-Apr
Trần Ngọc Châu 96 Vietnamese soldier and politician [533] 17-Jun
Meyer Rubin 96 Geologist [413] 2-May
Roy Lester 96 American football player and coach [418] 3-May
Helen Jones Woods 96 Musician [617] 25-Jul
Wynn Handman 97 Artistic director [261] 11-Apr
Nina Popova 97 Ballet dancer [643] 7-Aug
Henry Graff 98 Historian [217] 7-Apr
Annie Glenn 100 Disability rights advocate and widow of John Glenn [471] 19-May
Steve dePyssler 101 United States Air Force colonel [615] 25-Jul
Henrietta Boggs 102 First Lady of Costa Rica (1948–1949) [688] 9-Sep
Katherine B. Hoffman 105 Chemist [604] 18-Jul
Count 167
Mean 78.6
Median 83

What do you think?

 
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  1. Maybe RBG died of COVID too considering she was out officiating weddings without a mask just over two weeks before her death. In fact if I was a Dem I would be putting COVID on the death certificate to stick it to Trump even more.

    • Agree: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Replies: @MarkinLA
    @Tusk

    And get Covid a Presidential Medal of Freedom?

    , @Bill Jones
    @Tusk

    " In fact if I was a Dem I would be putting COVID on the death certificate to stick it to Trump even more."

    To which Trump could point out that the loon died by not following the rules, that being Chosen somehow made her feel special.

  2. I only recognized four names from that list: Allen Garfield, Trini Lopez, Annie Glenn, and Elis Marsalis Jr., and the latter only because it’s an unusual name and I’ve heard of his son.

    • Replies: @Father O'Hara
    @Mr. Anon

    What about Kamala?

    , @The Germ Theory of Disease
    @Mr. Anon

    Wait, didn't Trini Lopez get killed way back in The Dirty Dozen?

    We all come out like it's Halloween.

    Replies: @Wielgus

    , @Federalist
    @Mr. Anon


    Ellis Marsalis Jr.
     
    He was only 85.
    , @ScarletNumber
    @Mr. Anon

    This says more about you than the people on the list, as several are legitimately famous.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Achmed E. Newman

    , @Ben tillman
    @Mr. Anon

    It’s similar for me. Tom Dempsey and Tom Seaver were truly famous when I was a kid. I know of Herman Cain from his recent political career, and that’s it.

    Replies: @ScarletNumber

  3. A question that is still largely unanswered about the large death toll from the coronavirus is how much have we lost in terms of societal contribution from people with the prime of their careers still ahead of them.

    One question unanswered about the death toll is what it really is. As of Aug. 29th, the CDC recorded some 169,000 deaths “involving COVID-19”. In only 6% of that total was the sole cause of death listed as COVID-19. The remaining 94% had an average of 2.6 co-morbidities. Of that 169,000, in nearly 22,000 cases, the contributing cause of death was listed as “cardiac arrest”. Cardiac arrest is not a “contributing cause of death”. It is the proximate cause of death. COVID-19 may have led to the cardiac arrest and no-doubt did in thousands of cases. But how many people simply keeled over of a heart-attack, were subsequently found to have SARS-COV-2, or – according to CDC guidelines – were simply “presumed” to have had it, and were then listed as COVID-19 deaths. In over 5,000 of those 169,000 cases, the contributing cause of death was “accidental or intentional poisoning, accident, or other causes”. I.e., drug overdoses, suicides, motorcycle accidents (in at least one notorious case)…………..what else? It is entirely possible that essentially none of those 5,000+ deaths really had anything much to do with COVID-19.

    • Agree: Muggles, Polynikes
  4. Very few young people, most of whom may readily be inferred to maintain poor health habits. Judging from their names, occupations, and personal histories where available.

    Yes of course I’m being very naughty in making connections like that. I’m also being smart. Which reminds me, is there a consensus estimate on how many of the 200K deaths are excess?

    According to the MSM and social media, Trump has killed well over 200K, and that’s just counting the ones he’s killed with his bare hands.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Mike Pierson, Davenport Rector, Midfielder

    Lots of graphs of excess deaths here:

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

    New York City in the week ending April 11, 2020 had about 7.5 times as many deaths as would normally be expected for that week.

    That was really scary. After that, however, the excess deaths in NYC rapidly diminished and soon disappeared.

    Replies: @Wilkey, @AnotherDad, @Jus' Sayin'...

    , @Polynikes
    @Mike Pierson, Davenport Rector, Midfielder

    The part about excess deaths is that for the 65+ age group, the excess deaths track covid hospitizations and icu beds. Younger excess deaths do not. Excess deaths in younger groups (where it’s evident) rise and stayed elevated, indicating they may be due to lockdowns. For example, a 2% increase in the high school aged suicides would lead to more excess days in that age group from that singular cause than all the covid deaths in that age group.

    Similarly, we can look to our control group of Sweden who is on track to experience almost zero excess deaths for the year.

    Long story short: excess deaths aren’t going to be a pancea for untangling all of this.

    , @The King is a Fink
    @Mike Pierson, Davenport Rector, Midfielder

    Based on CDC 2017 US population and mortality statistics, there are about 7700 deaths in the US each day. If we consider the pandemic as having started in the beginning of February, under the normal course of events there would have been 1.8 million deaths in the US since then. This should hopefully put the 200k deaths attributed to C19 into perspective. As Steve indicates, the excess death rates will tell the tale, unfortunately only after the fact.

    I had read somewhere that the two previous flu seasons had been particularly mild, so C19 has had an effect similar to the first big storm of the year clearing out old trees. I can't find a reference to this though.

    , @Inquiring Mind
    @Mike Pierson, Davenport Rector, Midfielder

    "Trump has killed well over 200K, and that's just counting the ones he's killed with his bare hands."

    This reminds me of the "President Reagan, Mastermind" sketch on SNL, where he presented himself as a senile doofus in public, but behind closed doors, he was the mastermind and the person actually getting the job done in his Administration.

    https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=snl+sketch+competent+reagan&view=detail&mid=CF9F8BE9232ADB074015CF9F8BE9232ADB074015&FORM=VIRE

    I have always called that sketch "competent Reagan" because the general Narrative was that Mr. Reagan was incompetent, either owing to advancing age, early signs of dementia or just plain having a simplistic view of a complicated world.

    I call the Woodward tapes where Mr. Trump explains his understanding that "this is more deadly than even a rigorous flu" and "it is airborne, easily spread" as "competent Trump."

    Contrary to the Narrative that Mr. Trump is either an un-read, un-tutored boob or is delusional and needs to be replaced under the 25th Amendment, describing COVID illness as "more deadly than even a rigorous flu" is a concise, on-target explanation of what the medical community is telling us, even if it isn't couched in buzzwords like "spike protein", "novel virus" or "cytokine storm."

    As to his supposed Pollyannaish pronouncements on the need to take precautions, it seems that the most serious breaches of social-distancing and mask protocol occur among college students and minorities, two demographics who are said to regard Mr. Trump negatively? Who among the people who take Mr. Trump seriously are spreading the virus right now? Did he force schools to open? Did he mandate that nursing homes admit COVID patients?

  5. Mean 78.6

    That’s exactly the general US life expectancy according to the CDC:

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/life-expectancy.htm

    • Agree: Alden
    • Thanks: William Oliver
  6. @Mr. Anon
    I only recognized four names from that list: Allen Garfield, Trini Lopez, Annie Glenn, and Elis Marsalis Jr., and the latter only because it's an unusual name and I've heard of his son.

    Replies: @Father O'Hara, @The Germ Theory of Disease, @Federalist, @ScarletNumber, @Ben tillman

    What about Kamala?

  7. Steve, please address the fact that states (and most countries) are counting as covid deaths anybody who had covid within the past two months and…died. Of anything. In some cases even of traffic accidents!

    The covid death count is not just suspect it is blatantly untrue and, at this point, just a power grab by those already in power. They are not letting (what seemed to the masses as) a crisis go to waste.

    • Agree: Adam Smith, Alden
    • Thanks: Achmed E. Newman
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @moshe

    They don't count George Floyd as dying of COVID19.

    Replies: @Anon, @Hippopotamusdrome, @AnotherDad, @Reg Cæsar

    , @Achmed E. Newman
    @moshe


    The covid death count is not just suspect it is blatantly untrue and, at this point, just a power grab by those already in power. They are not letting (what seemed to the masses as) a crisis go to waste.
     
    I could not have summed this up any better than this, Moshe.

    The incentives to log deaths as FROM COVID are many, insurance money, and political pressure. Oh, and so "our" healthcare workers can be lauded as HEROES.

    Leaving the COVID-19-fatality gunshot and motorcycle wreck victims aside, here's the gist of how it really works, from Peak Stupidity's post "6% dying from Kung Flu alone - Vindication, bitchez!":

    Now let me discuss the co-morbidity thing for a bit. It's not like the COVID-19 virus couldn't be a big factor in many of those other 94%. It's just that, for lots of them, the older patients especially, who ARE lots of them, combined problems can go wrong quickly.

    If you've dealt with an older family member or friend in the hospital for serious illness (not the same as with young people hurt in a car wreck), you may know how this goes. This one condition requires this treatment, but we can't do that until he gets his XYZ readings up. For that, we will prescribe drug ABC, which does have a worsening effect on this OTHER condition. Additionally, the same drug, that he really needs to take, has a side effect causing this OTHER problem, which hopefully will not be bad enough to stop us from doing that original treatment we were going to do ... It gets pretty sad and/or scary, as things as up in the fashion of a puzzle. Solving the puzzle is the way to get through it all, until something else crops up next month. I hope all you readers can somehow avoid this, but ... as opposed to what, right?

    After all that, for some months, if the patient doesn't make it home, then the cause of death must be logged. What was it, exactly? Note that 2.6 average co-conditions. But, we need a code or two, and "old age" is not one of them.
     
    Worth causing an early death and taking away a few GDP-years of the American economy, oh, and introducing additional Totalitarianism to boot? You decide.

    Replies: @moshe

  8. Had Nick Cordero stayed home in bed instead of going to the hospital he would be alive today

    This is why when your narcissist wife tries to get you to the hospital so she can get in the news, ignore her and stay home

    Same with Kate garraways hubbie

    • Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @Anonymous

    He did not even have CV when he checked into the hospital in February, but he must have had some serious illness which required hospitalization.

  9. OT: Glenn Beck agrees with Matt Yglesias – wants one billion Americans:

    Ben Shapiro agrees too. Well, maybe not with the one-billion figure, but he wants more immigration.

    With “conservatives” like these…………………..

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @Mr. Anon

    We already have 1 billion Americans. The total population of North, Central, and South America combined is currently almost exactly 1 billion, slightly more than 1 billion in fact.

    With the Monroe Doctrine, US hegemony in the Americas, weak border controls, and a total population of the Americas already at 1 billion, we already effectively have the 1 billion Americans scenario.

    What Yglesias is calling for is for every person currently in Central and South America to move to the US so that 1 billion people are concentrated in the US.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Alice in Wonderland

    , @MarkinLA
    @Mr. Anon

    These guys are seriously mentally defective. The idea that we need one billion people to somehow counter China makes no sense. With nuclear weapons and an ocean to cross there is no likelihood of needing a 100 million man army to fight them. On economic terms we don't have to open our markets any more than they have to open theirs. This thinking is the same as the stupid idea that GDP has to increase no matter how it is achieved.

    Even if China is "the top economic power" there is no way they can dictate to Europe, Japan, India, and the Americas on the economic order. The really sad thing is people listen to these clowns.

    , @Anonymous Jew
    @Mr. Anon

    I’m long past the point where I’m willing to support any standard, old school Progressive that is opposed to invade the world invite the world.

    A conservative approach to various public policies is just dandy and all, but I’d take 1990’s Sweden over a Brazil run by ‘conservatives’. Any day and twice on Sunday.

    On topic. From a policy standpoint COVID-19 simply doesn’t kill enough people to justify a lockdown. That’s really all there is to it.

    Replies: @Libre

  10. songwriter Adam Schlesinger was 52 and had recently done excellent work for Crazy Ex-Girlfriend,

    Horny teenage boys will probably remember him best for “Stacy’s Mom”…..Although Rachel Hunter doubtless made a more indelible impression as the eponymous MILF:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZLfasMPOU4&feature=youtu.be&app=desktop

    • Agree: Ron Mexico
    • Replies: @Ganderson
    @syonredux

    While Stacy’s Mom is a fun song, and quite clever, and Mrs. Rod Stewart is VA VA VOOM!, there are many other FOW songs more worthy of consideration Among my favorites: Red Dragon Tattoo, No Better Place, Valley Winter Song, Acela... the list goes on. Schlesinger will be missed, at least in my house.
    Oh, and the opening of Stacy’s Mom is an homage to The Cars.

    And, didn’t Tom Seaver die of a degenerative disease?

    Replies: @syonredux, @ScarletNumber, @Steve Sailer

  11. Anonymous[386] • Disclaimer says:

    Jeez Steve you are a data & statistics guy.

    Look at the age distribution.

    COME ON. What are the odds?

    Someone who travelled away from earth for a year and totally unaware of recent events could come back take one look at the data and make the simple deduction:

    The virus is a weakling that preys on people with seriously compromised immune systems.

    That’s all.

    And we should doubt the transparency of the cause of death info for any supposed young healthy victim of this virus.

    And we all wish a higher % of our middle aged and elderly were healthier. Truth is we have a Type 2 epidemic and an obesity epidemic and a junk food epidemic and a drug use epidemic etc.

    So yeah victims cut down in the prime of their lives are hard to find. Go figure.

  12. @Mr. Anon
    I only recognized four names from that list: Allen Garfield, Trini Lopez, Annie Glenn, and Elis Marsalis Jr., and the latter only because it's an unusual name and I've heard of his son.

    Replies: @Father O'Hara, @The Germ Theory of Disease, @Federalist, @ScarletNumber, @Ben tillman

    Wait, didn’t Trini Lopez get killed way back in The Dirty Dozen?

    We all come out like it’s Halloween.

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    @The Germ Theory of Disease

    "Two - the guards are through" etc...

  13. They leave out a lot of context. Some people get the flu that would make most of us feel terrible for a few days, it kills them. Same with infections, blood clots, and allergic reactions. Bee stings, lightning bolts, and moonshine. C19 has a lot of patrons because it’s politically expedient to blame your ideological rivals for its horrible results.

    • Agree: Buffalo Joe
  14. I wish I knew how many of them actually died of Covid. But I don’t.

    • Replies: @Alden
    @JimDandy

    About 9,500 Americans actually died of covid hoax. The average age of all true and alleged , fraudulent, fake 200,000 deaths is 78, is about the average age of death for all races and the numerous genders of Americans.

    I knew from day one it’s a hoax. How did I know? I read it in the NYSLIMES, Washington Post, and other newspapers and heard about it on the TV news.

    Tried and true rule; if it’s in the newspapers, it’s a lie.

  15. for Germany: two people I have never heard of, mean and median age 92.

  16. Yawn. Heck, this Xi virus isn’t even doing a very good job of killing off people who had–once upon a time–done something notable.

    We’ve know since the Diamond Princess that this simply was going to be an early harvest and no big crisis–on the medical side–for the nation. (What politicians–Democrats–decided to do in terms of the economy and the rule of law, has been a crisis.)

    Seriously, i don’t want to die from this thing. I’ve still got stuff i want to do in this life. But if Xi gets to to chalk me up as a victim it would be a big loss, a tragedy for my family. (At least i hope they’d think so.) But it won’t be any big loss for the nation.

    Old people dying is … life. Just make sure you do some good stuff and leave some fine progeny as your legacy, before your number is up.

    • Replies: @Ganderson
    @AnotherDad

    My question about this whole panic, and I mostly blame Dem governors like Walz, Whittmer, Cuomo, Murphy, as well as RHINOS like Charlie “Charlie Parker” Baker, is, what has the President really done to fight back against the panickers- I realize we still have the tattered remains of a federal system, so his power has limits, but with his emphasis on VACCINES!, TESTING!!, as well as his general unwillingness to fight back against the panic patrol, fuels my Trump Disappointment syndrome.

    , @britausnzbrainsize1325ccsnicker
    @AnotherDad

    Your generation created AIDS and spread it to the world, not that i am saying covid came from China theres evedince it came from US or europe, so stuff it degenerate boommer .

  17. looking at casualty figures is only a small piece of the problem. the real issue with corona seems to be the way it can deal permanent, lasting damage to the organs of young, healthy people. im afraid we’re only going to understand the full impact of this pandemic after some time has passed

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @raven lunatic


    looking at casualty figures is only a small piece of the problem. the real issue with corona seems to be the way it can deal permanent, lasting damage to the organs of young, healthy people. im afraid we’re only going to understand the full impact of this pandemic after some time has passed
     
    What's also bad is how it can cause Kawasawi syndrome in children. You remember that?

    Except it doesn't. It turns out that claim was wrong.

    Maybe the oft-repeated one about permanent organ damage is too.

    This is the first pandemic in history that the authorities wanted to be worse than it is.

    Replies: @Thirdtwin, @raven lunatic

    , @Anonymous
    @raven lunatic

    Raven Lunatic: "Over 20 comments since 2015."

    Shill.

    , @Libre
    @raven lunatic

    Yea in 1 out of 1000 cases it gives bronchitis. Shattup clown

  18. @moshe
    Steve, please address the fact that states (and most countries) are counting as covid deaths anybody who had covid within the past two months and...died. Of anything. In some cases even of traffic accidents!

    The covid death count is not just suspect it is blatantly untrue and, at this point, just a power grab by those already in power. They are not letting (what seemed to the masses as) a crisis go to waste.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Achmed E. Newman

    They don’t count George Floyd as dying of COVID19.

    • Troll: JimDandy, Cloudbuster
    • Replies: @Anon
    @Steve Sailer

    If Floyd was still able to go out and pass counterfeit bills and deal drugs while sick with Covid, then he wasn't very ill.

    , @Hippopotamusdrome
    @Steve Sailer

    How do we know he wasn't? Can the public inspect the appropriate documents?

    , @AnotherDad
    @Steve Sailer



    They don’t count George Floyd as dying of COVID19.
     
    Yep, the one man in the known universe who can not be Covid19 death.

    And weird, while his death--from the video to the autopsy--screams "OD", it's not outside the realm of possibility the having the Xi virus had damaged his heart and was a contributing factor.
    , @Reg Cæsar
    @Steve Sailer

    How can the host be a "troll"? He's on deck, supervising the toll plaza!


    https://www.mmarchitecturalphotography.com/chicago-architectural-photographer/uploads/2020/01/chicago-skyway-toll-bridge.jpg

  19. @Mike Pierson, Davenport Rector, Midfielder
    Very few young people, most of whom may readily be inferred to maintain poor health habits. Judging from their names, occupations, and personal histories where available.

    Yes of course I'm being very naughty in making connections like that. I'm also being smart. Which reminds me, is there a consensus estimate on how many of the 200K deaths are excess?

    According to the MSM and social media, Trump has killed well over 200K, and that's just counting the ones he's killed with his bare hands.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Polynikes, @The King is a Fink, @Inquiring Mind

    Lots of graphs of excess deaths here:

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

    New York City in the week ending April 11, 2020 had about 7.5 times as many deaths as would normally be expected for that week.

    That was really scary. After that, however, the excess deaths in NYC rapidly diminished and soon disappeared.

    • Replies: @Wilkey
    @Steve Sailer


    New York City in the week ending April 11, 2020 had about 7.5 times as many deaths as would normally be expected for that week. That was really scary. After that, however, the excess deaths in NYC rapidly diminished and soon disappeared.
     
    And I would guess that death rates in NYC for the remaining eight months of the year, and perhaps into next year, will be below normal - before taking Black Lives Matter into account, anyway.

    Not to make light of coronavirus or those who died, but this virus is killing a lot of people who would have died soon, anyway. In some cases, coronavirus may have played the part of "the old man's friend," as pneumonia is often called, bringing an end to the lives of people with a host of other painful ailments.

    As for early deaths, I count only 24 deaths under the age of 60. Of those deaths 11 were black, 4 were Hispanic, and 1 was Thai. The rest were white. So about half of the famous under-60s (one of whom was a famous...lab technician?) were black. Were famous blacks more likely to die because they had pre-existing conditions, or because of lower Vitamin D levels, or because they were less careful and exposed themselves to the virus?

    OTOH, coronavirus did do us the service of killing at least two serial killers, one of whom was one of the under-60 whites.

    Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome

    , @AnotherDad
    @Steve Sailer


    New York City in the week ending April 11, 2020 had about 7.5 times as many deaths as would normally be expected for that week.

    That was really scary. After that, however, the excess deaths in NYC rapidly diminished and soon disappeared.
     
    That's cause Cuomo--citing "discrimination"--pushed the virus into every nursing home--slaughtering NYC's elderly who were in the "just need a push" bucket.

    So now for this absolutely glaring incompetence, he's a Democratic party hero.

    Separate nations.

    Replies: @prosa123, @moshe

    , @Jus' Sayin'...
    @Steve Sailer

    Mr. Sailer:

    Something of which the public and policy makers need to be aware and which remains almost entirely unaddressed in accounts of the current pandemic is that there is a clear distinction between becoming infected with the SARS-COV-2 virus and having any symptoms of Covid-19, let alone a serious or fatal case. Infection with SARS-COV-2 is a necessary but not sufficient condition for exhibiting symptoms of Covid-19. As an extreme illustration, the local news outlets in my area are rife with accounts of how thousands of returning college students are testing positive for SARS-COV-2. No one has seen fit to remark that very few if any of these have developed even a mild case of Covid-19.

    This pattern goes beyond just being the result of elderly and other high risk groups being susceptible to the potential ravages of Covid-19. It suggests that a very large proportion of the population has a natural immunity to Covid-19. These persons seem to be immune to Covid-19 in the sense that they are susceptible to SARS-COV-2 infection but not any serious consequences from such an infection. Although I've not run across any analyses of this, it seems that the proportion of the population with this natural immunity may run higher than 70%. I suspect that such immunity to Covid-19 (not infection by SARS-COV-2) is due to some combination of genetics and prior exposure to other pathogens.

    This observation has obvious policy implications. Where herd immunity to Covid-19 needs to develop is among the 30% or less of the population susceptible to the disease. This will not be achieved by current public health policies. It is not clear how it can be achieved. We might well be better off, socially, economically, politically, and even from the public health perspective letting the current of SARS-COV-2 infections burn its natural way through the population. My back of the envelope calculations suggest that the end result will be a number of excess deaths not proportionally exceeding those associated with the 1968 Hong Kong Flu pandemic. The world got through that without any drastic policies based solely on public health concerns.

    BTW, I have some limited expertise in this area. I'm a Ph.D. with over a quarter of a century of off-again-on-again experience conducting epidemiological analyses in various fields. My epi modeling of the spread of AIDS back in 1990 generated estimates that proved an order of magnitude better, i.e. lower, than Dr. Fauci's early and politically motivated projections. I ended the last fifteen years of my professional life working with the title of Epidemiologist in my state's Department of Public Health.

  20. As long as Bob Dylan is still alive, we haven’t killed enough musicians yet.

    • LOL: AnotherDad
    • Replies: @Gary in Gramercy
    @Anon

    "As long as Bob Dylan is still alive, we haven't killed enough musicians yet."


    Philistine.

  21. Ones I noticed are

    Lee Konitz – famous saxophonist, who performed in “Birth of the Cool” in 1949 with Miles Davis.

    Madelin Kripke – I recognized this strange name, as it is the sister of a famous philosopher Saul Kripke.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madeline_Kripke

    Ellis Marsalis – I don’t think he is a very important musician by himself, but he is the father of “jazz conservative” Wynton Marsalis.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Dmitry


    Ellis Marsalis – I don’t think he is a very important musician by himself, but he is the father of “jazz conservative” Wynton Marsalis.

     

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ix1QRe2wI6I
    , @Federalist
    @Dmitry


    Ellis Marsalis – I don’t think he is a very important musician by himself...
     
    Wrong.
  22. This study claims the average number years of life lost due to COVID was 10.8 years. See below.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.08.20050559v2

    Background: COVID-19 was the leading cause of death in the United States over the three-month period March through May 2020. Another perspective is COVID-19s toll in terms of years of life lost. We calculated years of life lost for COVID-19 and other leading causes of death over those three months in the US. We also predicted years of life lost for COVID-19 and ischemic heart diseases (which includes heart attacks) for March through August 2020. Methods: Years of life lost are the sum of differences between life expectancy at age of death and age at death. Average years of life lost, years of life lost divided by the number of deaths, were also calculated. We used the COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning model to predict years of life lost from COVID-19 through the end of August 2020. Results: COVID-19 caused 12,035 more deaths than ischemic heart diseases during March through May 2020 but ischemic heart diseases years of life lost were 1.5% greater than those for COVID-19. Average years of life lost were 10.8 and 12.4 for COVID-19 and ischemic heart diseases, respectively. At the end of August, COVID-19 may overtake ischemic heart diseases as the leading cause of deaths and years of life lost in the US. Conclusion: Each COVID-19 death causes more than a decade of lost life in the US. We are reminded of a Danish Proverb that states Prediction is difficult, especially when dealing with the future. We suggest that while dying is bad, losing life is even worse.

    Here’s another study. See below. 13 years lost for men, 11 years for women (after adjustments for long-term conditions).

    https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75

    Results: Using the standard WHO life tables, YLL per COVID-19 death was 14 for men and 12 for women. After adjustment for number and type of LTCs, the mean YLL was slightly lower, but remained high (13 and 11 years for men and women, respectively). The number and type of LTCs led to wide variability in the estimated YLL at a given age (e.g. at ≥80 years, YLL was >10 years for people with 0 LTCs, and <3 years for people with ≥6).

    Another study (see below) calculated that the median age of COVID death in the United States was 78. For people who are 78, life expectancy is roughly 10.1 years.

    I believe the median age of death in the United States is 82.4.

    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6928e1.htm

    Median decedent age was 78 years

    Here’s another interesting study (see below). The study claims that if 1 million Americans died of COVID, the average loss of life expectancy would be 11.7 years for those who died. For those who lived through COVID, the loss of life life expectancy would be 0.2 years at age 80. For the entire country as a whole, average life expectancy would drop by 2.9 years in 2020.

    https://www.pnas.org/content/117/36/22035

    What would a hypothetical 1 million US deaths in the COVID-19 epidemic mean for mortality of individuals at the population level? Life expectancy for 2020 would drop by 2.9 y. Those dying would lose an average of 11.7 y of expected remaining life, while for the general population the loss of remaining life would be 0.2 y for elders (at age 80) and much less at younger ages. Mortality per person would be less than that of the Spanish flu, but closer to that of the opioid and HIV/AIDS epidemics, while far more concentrated in time. The standard valuation of averting 1.75 million deaths would be many trillions of dollars.

    The above study claimed that if America avoided 1.75 million deaths, $10.2-$17.5 trillion would be saved.

    Avoiding 1.75 million deaths or 20.5 trillion person years of life lost would be valued at $10.2 to $17.5 trillion.

    I haven’t personally evaluated any of the above studies, but they’re worth reading for sure. The studies seem to suggest 10-13 years of life expectancy are lost by those who die from COVID.

    • Replies: @Mark G.
    @JohnnyWalker123


    The studies seem to suggest 10-13 years of life expectancy are lost by those who die from COVID.
     
    These studies use the average remaining life expectancy of someone like an average 78 year old so the assumption being made is that the average 78 year old who dies from Covid is the same thing as the average 78 year old. Almost forty percent of Covid deaths, though, are in long term care facilities where the average remaining life expectancy is 8 months. The 78 year old people passing away from this are among the least healthy 78 year olds. Ninety percent of them have other health issues.

    Overall weekly deaths in the U.S. are currently at a decade low. Some of the people who might have normally died around now died from Covid-19 in March or April so their deaths were just pushed forward a few months. For many people who die from this, it was probably almost their time to go anyway.
    , @Jack D
    @JohnnyWalker123

    I haven't read the studies either but I smell a methodological rat. Usually these estimates are predicated on the idea that the average Covid victim is in average health. If the average Covid victim is 78 years old and the average 78 year old has a 10 year life expectancy, we call it 10 years average life lost - as simple as that.

    That's simple and it's wrong because we know that Covid is an opportunistic killer. It doesn't randomly kill members of the herd like a lightning bolt. Rather it is like a lion who preys on the weakest members of the herd. Maybe the average 78 year old is going to live 10 more years but the average 78 year old who has Alzheimers and is living in a nursing home (a frequent profile of a Covid victim) is not.

    Replies: @Federalist

    , @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Speculative bunk.

    CDC admitted late August that in 94% of deaths attributed to BULL$$HIT-2020, the decedent had an average of 2.6 other fatal illnesses. So take this list and multiply by .06: at best, ten of the people on this list died of BS20 and the other 147 died of other diseases. Only their lying, money-grubbing doctors know for sure.

    It's a medical coding fraud, you imbecile diaperfaces.

    , @Hippopotamusdrome
    @JohnnyWalker123



    Methods: Years of life lost are the sum of differences between life expectancy at age of death and age at death

     

    That is a very rough calculation. Nursing home inmates have life expectancy measured in single digit months, and these are around half of all Covid deaths.

    It is logical to assume that people who die will be those with the weakest constitutions first, and these have lower life expectancy than average.
    , @res
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Do you have a sense of how many of those studies accounted for the typical poorer health of COVID-19 victims?

    I discussed Andrew Brigg's analysis of COVID-19 QALYs in this comment back in May.
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/how-many-quality-adjusted-life-years-is-coronavirus-costing/#comment-3915503

    The numbers in your comment seem more like his SMR1 (normal risk) US estimate of about 10.5 years. His more realistic (I think) SMR2 estimate (2x normal risk) was about 7 years. His SMR3 estimate (3x normal risk) was a bit over 5 years.

    P.S. Also see Jack D's comment. I am just giving some numbers for that point.

    , @AnotherDad
    @JohnnyWalker123


    I haven’t personally evaluated any of the above studies, but they’re worth reading for sure. The studies seem to suggest 10-13 years of life expectancy are lost by those who die from COVID.
     
    A guy who believes that should certainly believe Epstein killed himself.

    Replies: @moshe

    , @Shaq
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Don't mean to seem to crass given we're dealing with the loss of life, but if those most affected are obese, have underlying medical conditions, etc., wouldn't their deaths improve per capita income/wealth? My assumption is that they aren't net savers (e.g., they are older, living off social security), and they likely are consuming more healthcare resources than the average person.

    I'm sure there are other unintended consequences and secondary/tertiary impacts that benefit society. It's just uncomfortable thinking about them.

    , @Jus' Sayin'...
    @JohnnyWalker123


    Avoiding 1.75 million deaths or 20.5 trillion person years of life lost would be valued at $10.2 to $17.5 trillion.
     
    I'm backing up Shaq's earlier comment. The vast majority of those dying of Covid-19 are net drains on the economy. They're deadwood, pensioners sucking up resources that later generations will be paying for. Every such life lost is actually cost beneficial. BTW, I was born on the front end of the baby boom, in the late 1940s. I'm part of the deadwood, not some bitter Gen-Xer, Gen-Yer, or Millenial, just a realist who's done a lot of real cost-benefit analyses over the course of my professional life.
  23. There are about 300 mil people in USA. How many of them are “truly” famous and in their prime time? 3000? That would be 1 in 100 k, no?

    How many death in USA already? 200,000? We’d “expect” 2 truly famous people who have died. The chance that it has not happened yet, someone who knows his Statistics & Probability can make the calculation.

    When you take into consideration of other factors like those famous people must have better access to med. The heck is the problem we are discussing?

  24. @Steve Sailer
    @moshe

    They don't count George Floyd as dying of COVID19.

    Replies: @Anon, @Hippopotamusdrome, @AnotherDad, @Reg Cæsar

    If Floyd was still able to go out and pass counterfeit bills and deal drugs while sick with Covid, then he wasn’t very ill.

  25. @Dmitry
    Ones I noticed are

    Lee Konitz - famous saxophonist, who performed in "Birth of the Cool" in 1949 with Miles Davis.

    Madelin Kripke - I recognized this strange name, as it is the sister of a famous philosopher Saul Kripke.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madeline_Kripke

    Ellis Marsalis - I don't think he is a very important musician by himself, but he is the father of "jazz conservative" Wynton Marsalis.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Federalist

    Ellis Marsalis – I don’t think he is a very important musician by himself, but he is the father of “jazz conservative” Wynton Marsalis.

  26. Just to mention a few of the better-known ones:
    Tom Seaver had been suffering from dementia for years. When the Meta had a big ceremony for him in June 2019 he was in no physical shape to attend. Tom Dempsey also had dementia, severe enough that he had been in a nursing home for quite some time.
    John Prine had had surgery for cancer on two occasions that had left him disfigured. Terence McNally wasn’t that young, and had been suffering from lung cancer and had so many breathing problems he had been largely confined to home.

    • Agree: ScarletNumber
  27. Anonymous[110] • Disclaimer says:
    @Mr. Anon
    OT: Glenn Beck agrees with Matt Yglesias - wants one billion Americans:

    https://twitter.com/glennbeck/status/1307472038123073536

    Ben Shapiro agrees too. Well, maybe not with the one-billion figure, but he wants more immigration.

    With "conservatives" like these.......................

    Replies: @Anonymous, @MarkinLA, @Anonymous Jew

    We already have 1 billion Americans. The total population of North, Central, and South America combined is currently almost exactly 1 billion, slightly more than 1 billion in fact.

    With the Monroe Doctrine, US hegemony in the Americas, weak border controls, and a total population of the Americas already at 1 billion, we already effectively have the 1 billion Americans scenario.

    What Yglesias is calling for is for every person currently in Central and South America to move to the US so that 1 billion people are concentrated in the US.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @Anonymous

    You are being obtuse. America means the US in coloquial usage.

    , @Alice in Wonderland
    @Anonymous




    What Yglesias is calling for is for every person currently in Central and South America to move to the US so that 1 billion people are concentrated in the US.
     
    Wouldn't that make the USA much whiter?

    This is like the joke about moving the border between Iowa and Minnesota thereby making both states smarter. In this case it would make both the USA and South America whiter.
  28. On a much happier (?) note, the governing body of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, which runs mass transit in New York, is expected to enact a rule that will make it illegal to go Number Two in the subway. There’s already a rule against going Number One, and a vaguer one against creating unsanitary conditions, but until recently Dropping a Deuce wasn’t explicitly prohibited, probably because it was difficult to imagine anyone doing such a thing. No one is so naive anymore.

    It should be noted that the subway closure between 1am and 5am is ostensibly for “deep cleaning,” but by now that’s an obvious fiction. Only by shutting down service do the police have any legal grounds for ejecting skells from trains and stations.

    • Replies: @PiltdownMan
    @prosa123


    ... probably because it was difficult to imagine anyone doing such a thing.
     
    Not hard to imagine, at all, for anyone who actually lived in New York City in the 1970s and early 1980s.

    Replies: @prosa123

    , @Dan Hayes
    @prosa123

    Subway closures 1-5 AM have also long been sought for cost savings. Grand Central Terminal has long been closed overnight, whereas NE Corridor service precludes Penn Station closure.

    Replies: @prosa123, @Jim Don Bob

  29. The list resembles more a who’s who file. And there, average age must be around 60 zone versus 43 for population. A median of 83 is substantially older.

    It should be compared to average age of death in hospitals from Covid but I believe it’s around 83 too here in France

  30. Anonymous[232] • Disclaimer says:

    Man I wish no one had to die from this sick lab creation sent over to us by Xi & the Chi-coms. They designed the entire operation to inflict maximum economic and psychological carnage.

    Their plan worked beautifully. Solved all of Xi’s problems domestically and in Hong Kong and in competitor economies around the world.

    There is real evil in this world. But also there is good.

    So let’s salute the debunking heroes.

    Berenson deserves a medal. Tony Heller deserves a medal. Ethical Skeptic deserves a medal.

    So many other brave brilliant professionals stood up against the corrupt establishment at great personal cost.

    The sh!thead politicians & bureaucrats threatened to pull medical licenses as a form of mass coercion.

    Big Media and Big Pharma orchestrated a giant defamation and fear campaign against a common safe and effective 70 year old generic drug!

    Nationwide hospital administrators went on a lunatic “MARK IT DOWN COVID” cause of death recoding binge in pursuit of fat reimbursements from WashDC.

    Damn what a demonic spasm of dark deceit the country has been dragged through! Maybe after the election the whole thing will fade completely away quick as it came…

    • Agree: Jus' Sayin'..., Redman
  31. And what are your statistics on permanent inner organ damage?

    Or could you be indulging in, uh, diversion?

  32. Bruce Williamson 49 Lead singer of The Temptations

    I had no idea the Temptations were still around, thanks to the lineup being refreshed periodically. That more recent lead singer was born only a year before Papa Was A Rolling Stone was recorded.

    John Horton Conway is, of course, the highest IQ name on the list. But he did most of his best work in the 1960s and 1970s.

  33. @prosa123
    On a much happier (?) note, the governing body of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, which runs mass transit in New York, is expected to enact a rule that will make it illegal to go Number Two in the subway. There's already a rule against going Number One, and a vaguer one against creating unsanitary conditions, but until recently Dropping a Deuce wasn't explicitly prohibited, probably because it was difficult to imagine anyone doing such a thing. No one is so naive anymore.

    It should be noted that the subway closure between 1am and 5am is ostensibly for "deep cleaning," but by now that's an obvious fiction. Only by shutting down service do the police have any legal grounds for ejecting skells from trains and stations.

    Replies: @PiltdownMan, @Dan Hayes

    … probably because it was difficult to imagine anyone doing such a thing.

    Not hard to imagine, at all, for anyone who actually lived in New York City in the 1970s and early 1980s.

    • Replies: @prosa123
    @PiltdownMan

    Not hard to imagine, at all, for anyone who actually lived in New York City in the 1970s and early 1980s.

    While the city was more violent and run-down at the time, the huge increase in the skell population is much more recent. Back then there were a lot more violent crimes on the subway, but a lot fewer skells taking dumps.

  34. When my county has a Covid death, “nursing home resident” is a common description of the deceased.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    @Redneck farmer

    Redneck, for a short period the Buffalo News featured victims of C-19 who were in their nineties. They never would have mentioned their passing if it was cardiac arrest. Best though, and I know I have mentioned this before, was the headline..."She would have lived to be 105 but Covid-19 claims the life of a 99 year old." Top that.

  35. Cordero was the only name under age 80 i recognize & that’s because Steve mentioned him….

  36. Anonymous[504] • Disclaimer says:

    Mike Huckaby, the DJ who changed deep house… Or rather was merely “influential” in it? That’s the kind of solid info on relative historical significance you get from these wiki pages, the great “human achievement” flattener– one day not far off, when your SI-worthy consensus taxonomy of pop music genres has arrived, thank a Wikipedian

  37. You should include Standard Deviation, Max, & Min to your summary stats.

  38. Steve, it’s only occasionally, but you come across as celebrity obsessed and overly concerned (again) about another in an every-decade-or-so bad flu season.

    Who cares about these people any more than an average productive hard-working guy? There are a few engineers on the list, yet there are millions of engineers not on the list. Just because people are famous, in this case slightly famous, doesn’t make them better than plenty of others who do the same thing just as well who are not. You have a real problem with this, maybe from being around Hollywood or something.

    Secondly, excess deaths may or may not mean FROM COVID either, as there were millions of people kept away from hospitals because to the Panic-fest, who may have lived longer having been checked out earlier, etc. I say, wait until the end of 2020 or even 2021 to see if there was truly a significant number of people taken who wouldn’t have died within months or a year with no COVID.

    • Replies: @Redman
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Oh come on. It’s ok to talk about celebrities if you’re not just lionizing them. And better yet, if you’re taking them down a peg. Or mocking them in SNL fashion.

    It’s atavistic among men. Women worship them, and men mock them because of the woman worship. Steve’s pretty much always treated celebrity with a healthy dose of skepticism and irony.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

  39. @moshe
    Steve, please address the fact that states (and most countries) are counting as covid deaths anybody who had covid within the past two months and...died. Of anything. In some cases even of traffic accidents!

    The covid death count is not just suspect it is blatantly untrue and, at this point, just a power grab by those already in power. They are not letting (what seemed to the masses as) a crisis go to waste.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Achmed E. Newman

    The covid death count is not just suspect it is blatantly untrue and, at this point, just a power grab by those already in power. They are not letting (what seemed to the masses as) a crisis go to waste.

    I could not have summed this up any better than this, Moshe.

    The incentives to log deaths as FROM COVID are many, insurance money, and political pressure. Oh, and so “our” healthcare workers can be lauded as HEROES.

    Leaving the COVID-19-fatality gunshot and motorcycle wreck victims aside, here’s the gist of how it really works, from Peak Stupidity‘s post “6% dying from Kung Flu alone – Vindication, bitchez!”:

    Now let me discuss the co-morbidity thing for a bit. It’s not like the COVID-19 virus couldn’t be a big factor in many of those other 94%. It’s just that, for lots of them, the older patients especially, who ARE lots of them, combined problems can go wrong quickly.

    If you’ve dealt with an older family member or friend in the hospital for serious illness (not the same as with young people hurt in a car wreck), you may know how this goes. This one condition requires this treatment, but we can’t do that until he gets his XYZ readings up. For that, we will prescribe drug ABC, which does have a worsening effect on this OTHER condition. Additionally, the same drug, that he really needs to take, has a side effect causing this OTHER problem, which hopefully will not be bad enough to stop us from doing that original treatment we were going to do … It gets pretty sad and/or scary, as things as up in the fashion of a puzzle. Solving the puzzle is the way to get through it all, until something else crops up next month. I hope all you readers can somehow avoid this, but … as opposed to what, right?

    After all that, for some months, if the patient doesn’t make it home, then the cause of death must be logged. What was it, exactly? Note that 2.6 average co-conditions. But, we need a code or two, and “old age” is not one of them.

    Worth causing an early death and taking away a few GDP-years of the American economy, oh, and introducing additional Totalitarianism to boot? You decide.

    • Agree: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Replies: @moshe
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Thanks Achmed (lol),

    The truth is that at least 60% of the Covid Deaths either were deaths caused by other things and labeled as Covid or deaths caused by The Panic of March and April when nursing homes and hospitals were absent of "heroes" and family members were barred from ensuring that their loved ones received proper treatment. This was true all over the world - for example in Spain a nursing home was found in May to contain 50 odd dead bodies lying their beds.

    And then of course there are the deaths by medicine that you alluded to. Not only was the obviously dangerous ventilator rush a muderous decision that killed many, especially in New York, but iatrogenic deaths of all kinds resulted from the fear instilled in the public regarding Covid.

    To be clear, I believe that the primary fault lies with The People, most of whom in America and Europe longed for a life and death crisis to jar them out of their first world ennui.

    The authorities around the world, both political and medical, originally tried to caom the panicked masses but when tue press started labelling them as murderers for doing so they all got with the program.

    Only THEN did the governments of the world recognize this awesome opportunity to grab immense power and ran with it.

    You'll recall that even Steve Sailer called for some civil rights to be suspended, such as keeping one's medical records private. And if HE was irrationally panicked enough to turn to mommy government for authoritarian solace one can only imagine how the rest of the country felt.

  40. Stephen Williams was 83 and went “Senior” to allow a Republican to pick his replacement, but finished a book two years ago, was mentally sharp as a tack, and bicycling to work every day.

    I didn’t see Stephen Susman, who wasn’t in the prime of his career, but was still making seven digits at the top national law firm that bore his name.

  41. I was browsing that list and saw Lloyd Cadena, aged 26.
    26! So, I clicked the link to his Wikipedia page…

    He’s a fatty.

    – zinc
    – quercetin
    – Vitamin D
    – N acetylcysteine
    – sunlight/nature exposure
    – moderate exercise
    – lots of sleep
    – lose weight/low-GI diet
    – say your prayers
    – buy an oximeter

    • Agree: Mark G.
    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @Chrisnonymous

    Before Coronavirus, PD Mangan used to Tweet that being obese and being old were the same thing--being obese is like aging yourself unnaturally. That's overstated, but we can see from the pattern of deaths some kind of relationship between the two.

    Is my previous comment sitting in moderation after other later comments have been approved because Steve has started censoring? Inquiring minds....

  42. @prosa123
    On a much happier (?) note, the governing body of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, which runs mass transit in New York, is expected to enact a rule that will make it illegal to go Number Two in the subway. There's already a rule against going Number One, and a vaguer one against creating unsanitary conditions, but until recently Dropping a Deuce wasn't explicitly prohibited, probably because it was difficult to imagine anyone doing such a thing. No one is so naive anymore.

    It should be noted that the subway closure between 1am and 5am is ostensibly for "deep cleaning," but by now that's an obvious fiction. Only by shutting down service do the police have any legal grounds for ejecting skells from trains and stations.

    Replies: @PiltdownMan, @Dan Hayes

    Subway closures 1-5 AM have also long been sought for cost savings. Grand Central Terminal has long been closed overnight, whereas NE Corridor service precludes Penn Station closure.

    • Replies: @prosa123
    @Dan Hayes

    Subway closures 1-5 AM have also long been sought for cost savings. Grand Central Terminal has long been closed overnight, whereas NE Corridor service precludes Penn Station closure.

    Whatever cost savings might exist, 24 hour subway service has always been a tradition in New York, so an overnight shutdown - whether for "deep cleaning" or ejecting skells - is quite revolutionary. So far the MTA hasn't announced anything about return of overnight service, but with the deep cleaning cover story getting harder and harder to believe they'll have to do something soon.

    Penn Station also gets a small amount of Long Island Rail Road service in the overnight hours. For example, a train to Huntington leaves at 3:07 am and an inbound train from Ronkonkoma arrives three minutes later. There may also be some New Jersey Transit train service in those hours, though I'm not sure.

    Replies: @Jack D

    , @Jim Don Bob
    @Dan Hayes

    I used to take the 3am train from NYC's Penn Station to DC after the opera. The cops do a pretty good job of running off the bums (can we still call them that?) and there is no public seating. You have to show a ticket to enter the Amtrak waiting area. NJ Transit and Long Island RR run some late night early morning trains, so I don't think Penn Station ever really closes.

  43. According to Wikipedia, Cordero and Schlesinger were hospitalized in late March/early April, and both were put on ventilators, something that is now considered to do more harm than good for most patients. It would be interesting to see if other youngish deaths were more common early on when doctors were just guessing on a lot of the treatment issues.

    • Replies: @Anon
    @jon

    The protocols suggested by WHO, in turn from China, were wrong: use of ventilators, no antiinflamatories. Plus, wage war on HCQ.

  44. @Dan Hayes
    @prosa123

    Subway closures 1-5 AM have also long been sought for cost savings. Grand Central Terminal has long been closed overnight, whereas NE Corridor service precludes Penn Station closure.

    Replies: @prosa123, @Jim Don Bob

    Subway closures 1-5 AM have also long been sought for cost savings. Grand Central Terminal has long been closed overnight, whereas NE Corridor service precludes Penn Station closure.

    Whatever cost savings might exist, 24 hour subway service has always been a tradition in New York, so an overnight shutdown – whether for “deep cleaning” or ejecting skells – is quite revolutionary. So far the MTA hasn’t announced anything about return of overnight service, but with the deep cleaning cover story getting harder and harder to believe they’ll have to do something soon.

    Penn Station also gets a small amount of Long Island Rail Road service in the overnight hours. For example, a train to Huntington leaves at 3:07 am and an inbound train from Ronkonkoma arrives three minutes later. There may also be some New Jersey Transit train service in those hours, though I’m not sure.

    • Thanks: Dan Hayes
    • Replies: @Jack D
    @prosa123

    There are a lot of "traditions" that are going to have to go. The MTA has a HUGE hole in its budget. Revenues are way down, state and local tax collections are down. Their only real hope is for (more) massive Federal relief. If the Dems sweep the election, Schumer will write them a check with lots and lots of digits.

    The trains that ran in the middle of the night must have been ESPECIALLY loss making. They probably could have bought Uber rides for everyone on the subway at 3AM and saved money vs. running the trains. The subway makes a lot of sense at rush hour when you could not possibly move that many people on surface streets but at 3AM there is no traffic and it does no harm to push the subway riders to cheaper means of surface transportation. Most cities around the world close their metros in the middle of the night. For essential workers you can run night buses on limited routes.

    Replies: @Alden, @AnotherDad

  45. @PiltdownMan
    @prosa123


    ... probably because it was difficult to imagine anyone doing such a thing.
     
    Not hard to imagine, at all, for anyone who actually lived in New York City in the 1970s and early 1980s.

    Replies: @prosa123

    Not hard to imagine, at all, for anyone who actually lived in New York City in the 1970s and early 1980s.

    While the city was more violent and run-down at the time, the huge increase in the skell population is much more recent. Back then there were a lot more violent crimes on the subway, but a lot fewer skells taking dumps.

  46. @Mike Pierson, Davenport Rector, Midfielder
    Very few young people, most of whom may readily be inferred to maintain poor health habits. Judging from their names, occupations, and personal histories where available.

    Yes of course I'm being very naughty in making connections like that. I'm also being smart. Which reminds me, is there a consensus estimate on how many of the 200K deaths are excess?

    According to the MSM and social media, Trump has killed well over 200K, and that's just counting the ones he's killed with his bare hands.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Polynikes, @The King is a Fink, @Inquiring Mind

    The part about excess deaths is that for the 65+ age group, the excess deaths track covid hospitizations and icu beds. Younger excess deaths do not. Excess deaths in younger groups (where it’s evident) rise and stayed elevated, indicating they may be due to lockdowns. For example, a 2% increase in the high school aged suicides would lead to more excess days in that age group from that singular cause than all the covid deaths in that age group.

    Similarly, we can look to our control group of Sweden who is on track to experience almost zero excess deaths for the year.

    Long story short: excess deaths aren’t going to be a pancea for untangling all of this.

  47. There is a sayinng that ‘quantity is a form of quality’ so we might want to consider the impact of Covid on the 2020 election. For example Michael Bloomberg is spending a lot of money to pay the fines of negro and hispanic ex cons so they can register to vote in November. His groups is looking for criminals owing $1500 or less ( and white ex cons need not apply) and he as enough money to pay for 20 thousand votes.

    The problem is how many nice AME church going ladies who vote Democrat or overweight Latino women have been lost to covid. According to APM, a leftist data crunching organization, Covid might be the best thing going for Donald Trump.


    APMresearchlab.org
    /covid/deaths by race

    Negroes are dying at a rate of 97.9 per hundred thousand, Latinos at 64.7 per hundred thousand and whites at 46.6 per hundred thousand. At a more granular level we find that places like Philadelphia, Miami, Chicago etc have very high rates of covid deaths. This may make Bloombergs effort to ‘buy’ Ron De Santis’ victory margin in Florida or close Trumps margin in Pennsylvania harder. As Bloomberg has admitted he is unable to change voters minds with Biden TV ads so he has decided to just buy reliably Democrat voters but, as APM points out he has already lost 20,800 Negroes and 10,900 Latinos, 700 Amer Indians voters had they died at the same rate of covid as whites.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @unit472

    I'd like to share your optimism, Unit-472, but cheating yields a benefit 1 or 2 orders of magnitude higher than the Kung Flu disparities can.

  48. anon[388] • Disclaimer says:

    I am honestly perplexed how this not only flummoxed the occasionally nutty US, but the whole world, including the Red Chinese and Russians. The responses globally have been quite varried, but no one has been able to just ignore it.

    If you go back and look at traditional infectious diseases that were conquered in the US, the number of deaths prior to eradication programs was surprisingly low. Polio as an example.

    In the United States, the 1952 polio epidemic became the worst outbreak in the nation’s history. Of the nearly 58,000 cases reported that year, 3,145 died and 21,269 were left with mild to disabling paralysis.[146] Intensive care medicine has its origin in the fight against polio.[147] Most hospitals in the 1950s had limited access to iron lungs for patients unable to breathe without mechanical assistance. Respiratory centers designed to assist the most severe polio patients, first established in 1952 at the Blegdam Hospital of Copenhagen by Danish anesthesiologist Bjørn Ibsen, were the precursors of modern intensive care units (ICU). (A year later, Ibsen would establish the world’s first dedicated ICU.)[148]

    Of note: Not that many deaths 3,000. Not that many cases of severely disabled children. Note, out of 21,269 cases of mild to severe paralysis, how many were both severe and children? Maybe 10,000?

    The innovative medical interventions created a dread of hospital hallways lined with iron lungs.

    A child dying is tragic, a ward of kids in iron lungs is horrifying.

    Go through the other diseases on the list, and most of them didn’t cause a large number of deaths.

    “In the US there are about 30 cases [of tetnus] per year, almost all of which have not been vaccinated.”

    Was this a situation where a bacterial infection was well known, a preventive intervention discovered, so it was decided to make universal inoculations mandatory absent any formal cost/benefit analysis. Most doctors in the US have never seen a case.

    In 1884, Arthur Nicolaier isolated the strychnine-like toxin of tetanus from free-living, anaerobic soil bacteria. The etiology of the disease was further elucidated in 1884 by Antonio Carle and Giorgio Rattone, two pathologists of the University of Turin, who demonstrated the transmissibility of tetanus for the first time. They produced tetanus in rabbits by injecting pus from a person with fatal tetanus into their sciatic nerves

    Per the CDC, prior to routine vaccination, there were about 500 cases/year. Out of which maybe 100 would die?

    The point being that we will put a lot of effort into preventing a relatively small number of deaths historically. So even if US Covid deaths are overstated 10x, the resulting number (20,000) is still large compared to Polio or tetanus fatalities.

    • Replies: @Jus' Sayin'...
    @anon


    So even if US Covid deaths are overstated 10x, the resulting number (20,000) is still large compared to Polio or tetanus fatalities.
     
    But 200,000 or 300,000 excess deaths in the USA is in line -proportional to population size - with what the USA experienced during the Hong Kong Flu pandemic in 1968. I was a college student at the time and recall nothing like the drastic public health measures now in place. Everyone back then took the excess deaths in stride.

    Replies: @Wielgus

  49. The one name that stood out to me was Roy Horn. Maybe being almost fatally mauled by a Tiger counts as a co-morbidity.

    • Agree: Muggles
  50. @JohnnyWalker123
    This study claims the average number years of life lost due to COVID was 10.8 years. See below.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.08.20050559v2

    Background: COVID-19 was the leading cause of death in the United States over the three-month period March through May 2020. Another perspective is COVID-19s toll in terms of years of life lost. We calculated years of life lost for COVID-19 and other leading causes of death over those three months in the US. We also predicted years of life lost for COVID-19 and ischemic heart diseases (which includes heart attacks) for March through August 2020. Methods: Years of life lost are the sum of differences between life expectancy at age of death and age at death. Average years of life lost, years of life lost divided by the number of deaths, were also calculated. We used the COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning model to predict years of life lost from COVID-19 through the end of August 2020. Results: COVID-19 caused 12,035 more deaths than ischemic heart diseases during March through May 2020 but ischemic heart diseases years of life lost were 1.5% greater than those for COVID-19. Average years of life lost were 10.8 and 12.4 for COVID-19 and ischemic heart diseases, respectively. At the end of August, COVID-19 may overtake ischemic heart diseases as the leading cause of deaths and years of life lost in the US. Conclusion: Each COVID-19 death causes more than a decade of lost life in the US. We are reminded of a Danish Proverb that states Prediction is difficult, especially when dealing with the future. We suggest that while dying is bad, losing life is even worse.

     

    Here's another study. See below. 13 years lost for men, 11 years for women (after adjustments for long-term conditions).

    https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75

    Results: Using the standard WHO life tables, YLL per COVID-19 death was 14 for men and 12 for women. After adjustment for number and type of LTCs, the mean YLL was slightly lower, but remained high (13 and 11 years for men and women, respectively). The number and type of LTCs led to wide variability in the estimated YLL at a given age (e.g. at ≥80 years, YLL was >10 years for people with 0 LTCs, and <3 years for people with ≥6).

     

    Another study (see below) calculated that the median age of COVID death in the United States was 78. For people who are 78, life expectancy is roughly 10.1 years.

    I believe the median age of death in the United States is 82.4.

    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6928e1.htm

    Median decedent age was 78 years

     

    Here's another interesting study (see below). The study claims that if 1 million Americans died of COVID, the average loss of life expectancy would be 11.7 years for those who died. For those who lived through COVID, the loss of life life expectancy would be 0.2 years at age 80. For the entire country as a whole, average life expectancy would drop by 2.9 years in 2020.

    https://www.pnas.org/content/117/36/22035

    What would a hypothetical 1 million US deaths in the COVID-19 epidemic mean for mortality of individuals at the population level? Life expectancy for 2020 would drop by 2.9 y. Those dying would lose an average of 11.7 y of expected remaining life, while for the general population the loss of remaining life would be 0.2 y for elders (at age 80) and much less at younger ages. Mortality per person would be less than that of the Spanish flu, but closer to that of the opioid and HIV/AIDS epidemics, while far more concentrated in time. The standard valuation of averting 1.75 million deaths would be many trillions of dollars.

     

    The above study claimed that if America avoided 1.75 million deaths, $10.2-$17.5 trillion would be saved.

    Avoiding 1.75 million deaths or 20.5 trillion person years of life lost would be valued at $10.2 to $17.5 trillion.

     

    I haven't personally evaluated any of the above studies, but they're worth reading for sure. The studies seem to suggest 10-13 years of life expectancy are lost by those who die from COVID.

    Replies: @Mark G., @Jack D, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Hippopotamusdrome, @res, @AnotherDad, @Shaq, @Jus' Sayin'...

    The studies seem to suggest 10-13 years of life expectancy are lost by those who die from COVID.

    These studies use the average remaining life expectancy of someone like an average 78 year old so the assumption being made is that the average 78 year old who dies from Covid is the same thing as the average 78 year old. Almost forty percent of Covid deaths, though, are in long term care facilities where the average remaining life expectancy is 8 months. The 78 year old people passing away from this are among the least healthy 78 year olds. Ninety percent of them have other health issues.

    Overall weekly deaths in the U.S. are currently at a decade low. Some of the people who might have normally died around now died from Covid-19 in March or April so their deaths were just pushed forward a few months. For many people who die from this, it was probably almost their time to go anyway.

  51. Nick Cordero was on a ventilator in a coma after his heart stopped for several minutes. Months after admission to the hospital he tested positive for covid. He tested negative for covid at the hospital at least twice before that, maybe three times. The tendentious reporting on this bothers me because it is so obvious, as many want a young, vibrant death.

    It’s common for immune systems to break down for dying people, and if you are in a hospital (lots of covid, etc), on a ventilator (bad for natural lung health), it’s unsurprising all types of respiratory infections would arise while dying.

    • Agree: Ron Mexico
  52. @Mike Pierson, Davenport Rector, Midfielder
    Very few young people, most of whom may readily be inferred to maintain poor health habits. Judging from their names, occupations, and personal histories where available.

    Yes of course I'm being very naughty in making connections like that. I'm also being smart. Which reminds me, is there a consensus estimate on how many of the 200K deaths are excess?

    According to the MSM and social media, Trump has killed well over 200K, and that's just counting the ones he's killed with his bare hands.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Polynikes, @The King is a Fink, @Inquiring Mind

    Based on CDC 2017 US population and mortality statistics, there are about 7700 deaths in the US each day. If we consider the pandemic as having started in the beginning of February, under the normal course of events there would have been 1.8 million deaths in the US since then. This should hopefully put the 200k deaths attributed to C19 into perspective. As Steve indicates, the excess death rates will tell the tale, unfortunately only after the fact.

    I had read somewhere that the two previous flu seasons had been particularly mild, so C19 has had an effect similar to the first big storm of the year clearing out old trees. I can’t find a reference to this though.

  53. Isn’t the real question how many Covid deaths are Covid deaths?

    Given the sheer gigantic level of Medical Fraud that has already been exposed, the only thing we can say with certainty is that all the information we have is suspect. Really, the only way to know for sure would be to autopsy suspected Covid deaths, but the official policy of both the WHO and the CDC is not to autopsy suspected Covid deaths. Add that to the two week post-death altering of Death Certificates, and you have some major league corruption going on. In the meantime, the lung scarring and other issues, 100% associated with Tuberculosis, the weird radiation poisoning type symptoms, all labelled Covid….. Not to mention the auto accident and gunshot wound victims……

    All of the diagnoses dependent upon a set of tests so unreliable, that if you put 1000 people in a room and ran multiple independent tests on them, eventually every one of them would test both positive, and negative, for the “Covid” multiple times.

    The silver lining is that all boomer age people in the USA now have a massive dose of Medical Reality as to just how stupendously corrupt and utterly incompetent the Medical Community in the USA rally is.

    • Agree: Je Suis Omar Mateen
  54. @Mr. Anon
    I only recognized four names from that list: Allen Garfield, Trini Lopez, Annie Glenn, and Elis Marsalis Jr., and the latter only because it's an unusual name and I've heard of his son.

    Replies: @Father O'Hara, @The Germ Theory of Disease, @Federalist, @ScarletNumber, @Ben tillman

    Ellis Marsalis Jr.

    He was only 85.

  55. @Dan Hayes
    @prosa123

    Subway closures 1-5 AM have also long been sought for cost savings. Grand Central Terminal has long been closed overnight, whereas NE Corridor service precludes Penn Station closure.

    Replies: @prosa123, @Jim Don Bob

    I used to take the 3am train from NYC’s Penn Station to DC after the opera. The cops do a pretty good job of running off the bums (can we still call them that?) and there is no public seating. You have to show a ticket to enter the Amtrak waiting area. NJ Transit and Long Island RR run some late night early morning trains, so I don’t think Penn Station ever really closes.

    • Agree: Dan Hayes
  56. I think a list of famous people dying from drug or alcohol abuse would be longer and the average would be younger. The time span wouldn’t be the same. Seriously though, a ninety year is so frail that falls can kill.

  57. I read that we were about to hit 1 million death globally from covid. That is between 5 and 6000 a day globally. During the plague during Diocletian’s reign the death toll in Rome alone was 5000 a day. Alexandria lost half its population. Now that’s a plague!

    Here’s my standard response to anyone who brings covid up to me. “It’s not real. It’s been 6 months, if it were real we would both know a lots of dead people”

    And then there’s the standard back and forth. I swear it’s like it’s a script. They say you don’t think the virus exists I say yes of course it exist will they say well so it’s a real and I say well if they counted the flu cases every year and told you how many people died you’d freaked out about that too and it goes on. Truly amazing

  58. I’d never heard of Nashom Wooden the drag queen. And now we’ve lost him. Reading his Wikipedia article, it seems he was a homosexual (doesn’t actually state that, but I assume he was) who performed at gay bars in drag. Seems kinda old-fashioned. I see an analogy between drag queens to transgendered, and blackface to Blacks. By the way, if we now capitalize “Blacks”, do we also capitalize “Blackface”? After all, we capitalize “Blackfeet”, but then that’s a horse of a different color.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Silber
    @ES

    I'd never heard of Nashom Wooden the drag queen. And now we've lost him

    What is the formula for calculating quality-adjusted lost Story Hours?

  59. How many of these “notable people” were only “notable” because they died of COVID? Note that Lynika Strozier (RIP) only gained a Wikipedia entry after her death.

    • Agree: Sollipsist
    • Replies: @Sollipsist
    @Paco Wové

    This is my main takeaway from the "celebrity" fixation. The media was eager to create the impression of unusual levels of mortality, and the number of obituaries that were promoted to front page or news feed status went up significantly.

    They tried to be somewhat subtle about it; not everybody who died of CoVid-19 got posthumously promoted (you can only stretch justifications for distinction so far) and not everybody who was featured had a Covid-19 connection.

    It was nicely done to make guys like me look paranoid if we tried too hard to make a big deal about it :D

    , @Steve Sailer
    @Paco Wové

    My impression is that these aren't terribly notable names. What is yours?

    Replies: @Paco Wové

  60. @syonredux

    songwriter Adam Schlesinger was 52 and had recently done excellent work for Crazy Ex-Girlfriend,
     
    Horny teenage boys will probably remember him best for "Stacy's Mom".....Although Rachel Hunter doubtless made a more indelible impression as the eponymous MILF:


    https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-JEnBhfxDmyU/Tgvnh0x76tI/AAAAAAAAAGU/_YAo5odkDM8/s1600/RachelHunter029.jpg


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZLfasMPOU4&feature=youtu.be&app=desktop

    Replies: @Ganderson

    While Stacy’s Mom is a fun song, and quite clever, and Mrs. Rod Stewart is VA VA VOOM!, there are many other FOW songs more worthy of consideration Among my favorites: Red Dragon Tattoo, No Better Place, Valley Winter Song, Acela… the list goes on. Schlesinger will be missed, at least in my house.
    Oh, and the opening of Stacy’s Mom is an homage to The Cars.

    And, didn’t Tom Seaver die of a degenerative disease?

    • Replies: @syonredux
    @Ganderson


    Oh, and the opening of Stacy’s Mom is an homage to The Cars.
     
    Speaking of The Cars, if you ever wanted proof that even a legitimately hideous guy can land a mega-babe, check out Ric Ocasek and Paulina Porizkova:


    https://www.coloradomusic.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Ric-Ocasek.jpg

    https://i.pinimg.com/736x/8e/d0/eb/8ed0eb9ea8cae942c931ff8661b819c8.jpg


    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/d8/98/e7/d898e7e5bf3867675717375858cc6343.jpg

    Replies: @Feryl

    , @ScarletNumber
    @Ganderson


    the opening of Stacy’s Mom is an homage to The Cars
     
    And later in the video is an homage to Fast Times at Ridgemont High, which uses The Cars' Moving in Stereo.
    , @Steve Sailer
    @Ganderson

    My impression is that these aren't terribly notable names. What is yours?

    Replies: @Wielgus, @Ganderson

  61. @Anonymous
    @Mr. Anon

    We already have 1 billion Americans. The total population of North, Central, and South America combined is currently almost exactly 1 billion, slightly more than 1 billion in fact.

    With the Monroe Doctrine, US hegemony in the Americas, weak border controls, and a total population of the Americas already at 1 billion, we already effectively have the 1 billion Americans scenario.

    What Yglesias is calling for is for every person currently in Central and South America to move to the US so that 1 billion people are concentrated in the US.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Alice in Wonderland

    You are being obtuse. America means the US in coloquial usage.

  62. @AnotherDad
    Yawn. Heck, this Xi virus isn't even doing a very good job of killing off people who had--once upon a time--done something notable.

    We've know since the Diamond Princess that this simply was going to be an early harvest and no big crisis--on the medical side--for the nation. (What politicians--Democrats--decided to do in terms of the economy and the rule of law, has been a crisis.)

    Seriously, i don't want to die from this thing. I've still got stuff i want to do in this life. But if Xi gets to to chalk me up as a victim it would be a big loss, a tragedy for my family. (At least i hope they'd think so.) But it won't be any big loss for the nation.

    Old people dying is ... life. Just make sure you do some good stuff and leave some fine progeny as your legacy, before your number is up.

    Replies: @Ganderson, @britausnzbrainsize1325ccsnicker

    My question about this whole panic, and I mostly blame Dem governors like Walz, Whittmer, Cuomo, Murphy, as well as RHINOS like Charlie “Charlie Parker” Baker, is, what has the President really done to fight back against the panickers- I realize we still have the tattered remains of a federal system, so his power has limits, but with his emphasis on VACCINES!, TESTING!!, as well as his general unwillingness to fight back against the panic patrol, fuels my Trump Disappointment syndrome.

  63. @raven lunatic
    looking at casualty figures is only a small piece of the problem. the real issue with corona seems to be the way it can deal permanent, lasting damage to the organs of young, healthy people. im afraid we're only going to understand the full impact of this pandemic after some time has passed

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Anonymous, @Libre

    looking at casualty figures is only a small piece of the problem. the real issue with corona seems to be the way it can deal permanent, lasting damage to the organs of young, healthy people. im afraid we’re only going to understand the full impact of this pandemic after some time has passed

    What’s also bad is how it can cause Kawasawi syndrome in children. You remember that?

    Except it doesn’t. It turns out that claim was wrong.

    Maybe the oft-repeated one about permanent organ damage is too.

    This is the first pandemic in history that the authorities wanted to be worse than it is.

    • Replies: @Thirdtwin
    @Mr. Anon

    I’m hoping he has some flexibility with Covid panic management after the election, but I’m not sure what he realistically can do. Any ideas? The Covid Hoax was a masterstroke of evil manipulation which seems to have permanently changed the culture.

    , @raven lunatic
    @Mr. Anon

    im absolutely willing to believe that the establishment would lie in exactly this fashion-- i mean after 9/11, iraq, libya, yemen and so on you would have to be mad to consider them anything other than incompetent and evil... but what kind of conspiracy gets china, russia, israel, the us, western europe, india and the koreas all on the same page??

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8427625/As-half-coronavirus-patients-NO-symptoms-silently-suffer-lung-damage.html

    i think ron's hypothesis that the corona was a bioweapon that got spectacularly out of control is more credible than the idea the whole shabang is an information op. look at a REAL information op; 'russiagate'. hardly a masterwork of planning and execution, nu?

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

  64. @Mr. Anon
    I only recognized four names from that list: Allen Garfield, Trini Lopez, Annie Glenn, and Elis Marsalis Jr., and the latter only because it's an unusual name and I've heard of his son.

    Replies: @Father O'Hara, @The Germ Theory of Disease, @Federalist, @ScarletNumber, @Ben tillman

    This says more about you than the people on the list, as several are legitimately famous.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @ScarletNumber


    This says more about you than the people on the list, as several are legitimately famous.
     
    Yes, I had never heard of Kamala (wrestler), Jack Lotz (wrestling referee), Nashom Wooden (Drag Queen), or Kenneth Church (Jockey).

    I guess I'm just a philistine.
    , @Achmed E. Newman
    @ScarletNumber

    Mr. Number, seriously, why do you take it so badly when people tell you they don't know or care about the people from People magazine or people or ANYTHING else on TV? Do you work in that business?

    Wait for it...



    • Troll: @ScarletNumber

    Replies: @ScarletNumber

  65. @Mr. Anon
    I only recognized four names from that list: Allen Garfield, Trini Lopez, Annie Glenn, and Elis Marsalis Jr., and the latter only because it's an unusual name and I've heard of his son.

    Replies: @Father O'Hara, @The Germ Theory of Disease, @Federalist, @ScarletNumber, @Ben tillman

    It’s similar for me. Tom Dempsey and Tom Seaver were truly famous when I was a kid. I know of Herman Cain from his recent political career, and that’s it.

    • Replies: @ScarletNumber
    @Ben tillman

    Tom Dempsey is the epitome of that Whitney Houston song. The guy was under 50 percent in his career on field goal attempts of 40+ yards.

    Replies: @William Badwhite

  66. Whoever put down Roy Horn’s occupation as “lion tamer” has a twisted sense of humor.

  67. Feeling a bit philosophical, if the upper class famous people are not dying of covid, is it really a pandemic?

  68. It looks to me like an ordinary list of people who have died of a virus in any given year.

  69. @Ben tillman
    @Mr. Anon

    It’s similar for me. Tom Dempsey and Tom Seaver were truly famous when I was a kid. I know of Herman Cain from his recent political career, and that’s it.

    Replies: @ScarletNumber

    Tom Dempsey is the epitome of that Whitney Houston song. The guy was under 50 percent in his career on field goal attempts of 40+ yards.

    • Replies: @William Badwhite
    @ScarletNumber


    The guy was under 50 percent in his career on field goal attempts of 40+ yards.
     
    You can't really compare generations when it comes to kickers. FG percentages in the 50's and 60's weren't unusual until fairly recently (say the early 90's or so).

    Kickers were often good athletes that played other positions in HS or even college (Mark Moseley was a quarterback at Stephen F. Austin) and then focused on kicking when they got to the NFL because that was the only way to stay on the team. Today virtually every kicker has focused on kicking and only kicking from the start, they go to summer camps, have private coaches, etc. The reason? Money. Even kickers can make life-changing money today.

    Someone making 65% of their field goals wouldn't get a college scholarship today, much less be able to play professionally.
  70. Anon[165] • Disclaimer says:

    I get the general point of the post.

    However, I live in a major city. I have quite a few friends/acquaintances (40s – 50s) with the following pattern:
    got Covid, got home treatment (maybe w Oxygen concentrator), got bad pneumonia, rushed to hospital, got better, back home.

    How many Covid pneumonia hospitalizations?

  71. @Tusk
    Maybe RBG died of COVID too considering she was out officiating weddings without a mask just over two weeks before her death. In fact if I was a Dem I would be putting COVID on the death certificate to stick it to Trump even more.

    Replies: @MarkinLA, @Bill Jones

    And get Covid a Presidential Medal of Freedom?

  72. @AnotherDad
    Yawn. Heck, this Xi virus isn't even doing a very good job of killing off people who had--once upon a time--done something notable.

    We've know since the Diamond Princess that this simply was going to be an early harvest and no big crisis--on the medical side--for the nation. (What politicians--Democrats--decided to do in terms of the economy and the rule of law, has been a crisis.)

    Seriously, i don't want to die from this thing. I've still got stuff i want to do in this life. But if Xi gets to to chalk me up as a victim it would be a big loss, a tragedy for my family. (At least i hope they'd think so.) But it won't be any big loss for the nation.

    Old people dying is ... life. Just make sure you do some good stuff and leave some fine progeny as your legacy, before your number is up.

    Replies: @Ganderson, @britausnzbrainsize1325ccsnicker

    Your generation created AIDS and spread it to the world, not that i am saying covid came from China theres evedince it came from US or europe, so stuff it degenerate boommer .

  73. Being holocaust survivor puts you on a list of famous people? What about getting your wisdom teeth removed?

  74. @jon
    According to Wikipedia, Cordero and Schlesinger were hospitalized in late March/early April, and both were put on ventilators, something that is now considered to do more harm than good for most patients. It would be interesting to see if other youngish deaths were more common early on when doctors were just guessing on a lot of the treatment issues.

    Replies: @Anon

    The protocols suggested by WHO, in turn from China, were wrong: use of ventilators, no antiinflamatories. Plus, wage war on HCQ.

  75. @Mr. Anon
    OT: Glenn Beck agrees with Matt Yglesias - wants one billion Americans:

    https://twitter.com/glennbeck/status/1307472038123073536

    Ben Shapiro agrees too. Well, maybe not with the one-billion figure, but he wants more immigration.

    With "conservatives" like these.......................

    Replies: @Anonymous, @MarkinLA, @Anonymous Jew

    These guys are seriously mentally defective. The idea that we need one billion people to somehow counter China makes no sense. With nuclear weapons and an ocean to cross there is no likelihood of needing a 100 million man army to fight them. On economic terms we don’t have to open our markets any more than they have to open theirs. This thinking is the same as the stupid idea that GDP has to increase no matter how it is achieved.

    Even if China is “the top economic power” there is no way they can dictate to Europe, Japan, India, and the Americas on the economic order. The really sad thing is people listen to these clowns.

  76. These are not, on the whole, hugely famous people. I think I recognized 15 of the 167 names, and I’m reasonably well informed. Many of them were never celebrities but instead high achievers in low profile fields like nephrology or corporate law, or obscure figures in more publicized fields like sports or music.

    Ken Snow was pretty famous in soccer circles. His problem was in he was born a decade too early.

    By the time the USA had a first division outdoor soccer league in Major League Soccer, he was in his mid 30s — generally too old for most professional soccer players, and certainly too old for a forward, a position that needs lightning speed and is the province of players in their late teens and early to mid 20s, mostly.

    The only professional option in the USA during his prime years was indoor soccer.

    Had he been born in, say 1979, instead of 1969, he would have likely been on the US national team in the 1994 World Cup that was played in the the USA. His career arc might have resembled more successful American players like John Harkes, Cobi Jones, Brian McBride, or Claudio Reyna, who did stints in European first division soccer and made some decent money.

  77. @JohnnyWalker123
    This study claims the average number years of life lost due to COVID was 10.8 years. See below.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.08.20050559v2

    Background: COVID-19 was the leading cause of death in the United States over the three-month period March through May 2020. Another perspective is COVID-19s toll in terms of years of life lost. We calculated years of life lost for COVID-19 and other leading causes of death over those three months in the US. We also predicted years of life lost for COVID-19 and ischemic heart diseases (which includes heart attacks) for March through August 2020. Methods: Years of life lost are the sum of differences between life expectancy at age of death and age at death. Average years of life lost, years of life lost divided by the number of deaths, were also calculated. We used the COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning model to predict years of life lost from COVID-19 through the end of August 2020. Results: COVID-19 caused 12,035 more deaths than ischemic heart diseases during March through May 2020 but ischemic heart diseases years of life lost were 1.5% greater than those for COVID-19. Average years of life lost were 10.8 and 12.4 for COVID-19 and ischemic heart diseases, respectively. At the end of August, COVID-19 may overtake ischemic heart diseases as the leading cause of deaths and years of life lost in the US. Conclusion: Each COVID-19 death causes more than a decade of lost life in the US. We are reminded of a Danish Proverb that states Prediction is difficult, especially when dealing with the future. We suggest that while dying is bad, losing life is even worse.

     

    Here's another study. See below. 13 years lost for men, 11 years for women (after adjustments for long-term conditions).

    https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75

    Results: Using the standard WHO life tables, YLL per COVID-19 death was 14 for men and 12 for women. After adjustment for number and type of LTCs, the mean YLL was slightly lower, but remained high (13 and 11 years for men and women, respectively). The number and type of LTCs led to wide variability in the estimated YLL at a given age (e.g. at ≥80 years, YLL was >10 years for people with 0 LTCs, and <3 years for people with ≥6).

     

    Another study (see below) calculated that the median age of COVID death in the United States was 78. For people who are 78, life expectancy is roughly 10.1 years.

    I believe the median age of death in the United States is 82.4.

    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6928e1.htm

    Median decedent age was 78 years

     

    Here's another interesting study (see below). The study claims that if 1 million Americans died of COVID, the average loss of life expectancy would be 11.7 years for those who died. For those who lived through COVID, the loss of life life expectancy would be 0.2 years at age 80. For the entire country as a whole, average life expectancy would drop by 2.9 years in 2020.

    https://www.pnas.org/content/117/36/22035

    What would a hypothetical 1 million US deaths in the COVID-19 epidemic mean for mortality of individuals at the population level? Life expectancy for 2020 would drop by 2.9 y. Those dying would lose an average of 11.7 y of expected remaining life, while for the general population the loss of remaining life would be 0.2 y for elders (at age 80) and much less at younger ages. Mortality per person would be less than that of the Spanish flu, but closer to that of the opioid and HIV/AIDS epidemics, while far more concentrated in time. The standard valuation of averting 1.75 million deaths would be many trillions of dollars.

     

    The above study claimed that if America avoided 1.75 million deaths, $10.2-$17.5 trillion would be saved.

    Avoiding 1.75 million deaths or 20.5 trillion person years of life lost would be valued at $10.2 to $17.5 trillion.

     

    I haven't personally evaluated any of the above studies, but they're worth reading for sure. The studies seem to suggest 10-13 years of life expectancy are lost by those who die from COVID.

    Replies: @Mark G., @Jack D, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Hippopotamusdrome, @res, @AnotherDad, @Shaq, @Jus' Sayin'...

    I haven’t read the studies either but I smell a methodological rat. Usually these estimates are predicated on the idea that the average Covid victim is in average health. If the average Covid victim is 78 years old and the average 78 year old has a 10 year life expectancy, we call it 10 years average life lost – as simple as that.

    That’s simple and it’s wrong because we know that Covid is an opportunistic killer. It doesn’t randomly kill members of the herd like a lightning bolt. Rather it is like a lion who preys on the weakest members of the herd. Maybe the average 78 year old is going to live 10 more years but the average 78 year old who has Alzheimers and is living in a nursing home (a frequent profile of a Covid victim) is not.

    • Replies: @Federalist
    @Jack D


    Maybe the average 78 year old is going to live 10 more years but the average 78 year old who has Alzheimers and is living in a nursing home (a frequent profile of a Covid victim) is not.
     
    For example, Tom Dempsey (who for a long time had the longest NFL field goal) is listed as dying at the not-particularly-old age of 73. However, he had been diagnosed with dementia some time before and was a resident of a nursing home in New Orleans that was particularly hard hit by Covid 19 early on. Dempsey was already in very poor health. So, the virus was likely the immediate cause of his death (unlike in many cases where someone "with" coronavirus died of another cause). But he was very unlikely to live much longer had Covid-19 never existed.

    Replies: @Jack D

  78. The first person on the list was Chris Trousdale , a gay man. Wonder if he had HIV
    I never heard of any of these people. To describe them as celebrities is dishonest.

    By now it is quite obvious that CV has a very low fatality rate, closer to .2% than 1%. The vast majority of those infected never develop any symptoms. the high numbers of asymptomatics is how we know that pre-existing immunity is real. How else could we explain so many people brushing off infection with the “novel” coronavirus For most people, it’s just another coronavirus…no big deal.

    Data from the prisons confirms that 95% of those with CV will have zero symptoms.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-prisons-testing-in-idUSKCN2270RX

    • Replies: @anon
    @Travis

    Thanks for the information on prisoners. I am surprised this its from April!

    I'm sure the incidence of problems sin ce then has been. favorable, since we have not heard any more about it.

    Total institutions, which include prisons, boarding schools/college, and cruise ships should have been a good source of semi controlled natural experiments. But alas, nada.

  79. How old is Soros?

    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob
    @Stick

    Soros is 90.

  80. The entry for Ken Snow notes he was not tested. He assumed he had “lingering” covid 19.

    I bet some of these people never had covid 19. Not a criticism, just another example of how frustrating it is to try to work with the available info to make meaningful decisions about family/work safety.

  81. I don’t know whether it is the result of more effective medical treatment or the lockdowns or the fact that people are wearing masks, or that all of the low hanging fruit has been picked, but at least in my county people have largely (if not entirely) stopped dying from Covid. In the 3 month period April 1 – June 30 in my county of 800,000 there were almost 800 Covid attributed deaths (average age 80.75) and since then there have been 30, or about 1 every 3 days. In other places that had a big first wave (e.g. NYC) I think that the ratios are similar.

    Now maybe, to use Ginsburg’s analogy, the lockdowns are the umbrella that is the very thing that is keeping us from getting wet and so as soon as we discard the umbrella wetness will follow, but it’s hard to justify keeping the economy still largely closed for a disease that is no longer a major cause of death.

    • Replies: @Travis
    @Jack D

    The lockdowns did not work. The lockdowns here in NJ started on March 12. They started shutting down the schools here on March 12. The local Costco was sold out of rice on March 7th. I know because I though I was ahead of the curve when I went to prepare for the coming pandemic and took a picture of the barren shelves to show my wife. So People in NY and NJ were preparing for the coming pandemic and taking precautions already, washing hands, buying masks etc...

    Yet the peak in cases and deaths occurred weeks later. Deaths peaked during the third week in April in NJ. 4 weeks after the lockdowns, 4 weeks after all the schools were closed, 4 weeks after they closed the stock exchange, 4 weeks after the lockdowns indicates that they had little to no effect on the pandemic here in NJ

    As the lockdowns ended in places across the world we have never seen a rise in fatalities. The same patterns are observed in Europe and Asia. When the lockdowns ended there was no spike in fatalities. If you look at places like Arizona, Texas, Florida and Georgia, the reproduction number, Rt, is lower than during lockdown.

    The lockdowns were supposedly done to flatten the curve and spread out the deaths over a few months instead of having all the vulnerable die over a few weeks. Maybe a few more people would have died in April without the lockdowns. But it is well past time to end the lockdowns and open the schools. Sad that the lockdowns continue and the schools remain mostly closed here in NJ. Sweden kept their schools open and not a single child died from Covid of over 1.8 million kids.

    Replies: @Jack D, @utu

  82. There appears to be a disproportionate toll on serial killer-Americans and their accomplices. In our deranged times , we should doubtless expect a grass roots SKLM movement.

    • Replies: @Wilkey
    @kaganovitch

    Well we were repeatedly told that we needed to let people out of prison because coronavirus was going to rage through the prisons and kill them all. A more rational society might have seen that as a good thing.

    That's sort of the irony of the coronavirus response. Two of the big complaints of modern society, and why we're going broke, are the enormous cost of prisons and the enormous cost of elder care.

    No, I'm not really suggesting that we should have let it happen. Just that this is one of the reasons that the costs of government are getting so out of hand. We shut down the productive parts of our economy and borrowed (or printed) a shitload of money in order to keep the net liabilities alive. And then we watched as people spent four months (and counting) rioting and looting on behalf of another unproductive part of our society. It really is a conundrum.

    , @Feryl
    @kaganovitch

    The Houston homosexual serial killings by Dean Corll/David Brooks/Elmer Henley of the early 1970's is still quite possibly the most appalling crime series in "modern" US history (dozens of kids were horribly tortured). I think it's been memory holed because for one thing, it was just...Gay. For another thing, the local police were terribly negligent, dismissing report after report of missing male youths as typical 70's runaways (even though many of the victims were known to be reliable and studious and not the type to run away and get into trouble).

    Replies: @Tina Trent

  83. @Steve Sailer
    @Mike Pierson, Davenport Rector, Midfielder

    Lots of graphs of excess deaths here:

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

    New York City in the week ending April 11, 2020 had about 7.5 times as many deaths as would normally be expected for that week.

    That was really scary. After that, however, the excess deaths in NYC rapidly diminished and soon disappeared.

    Replies: @Wilkey, @AnotherDad, @Jus' Sayin'...

    New York City in the week ending April 11, 2020 had about 7.5 times as many deaths as would normally be expected for that week. That was really scary. After that, however, the excess deaths in NYC rapidly diminished and soon disappeared.

    And I would guess that death rates in NYC for the remaining eight months of the year, and perhaps into next year, will be below normal – before taking Black Lives Matter into account, anyway.

    Not to make light of coronavirus or those who died, but this virus is killing a lot of people who would have died soon, anyway. In some cases, coronavirus may have played the part of “the old man’s friend,” as pneumonia is often called, bringing an end to the lives of people with a host of other painful ailments.

    As for early deaths, I count only 24 deaths under the age of 60. Of those deaths 11 were black, 4 were Hispanic, and 1 was Thai. The rest were white. So about half of the famous under-60s (one of whom was a famous…lab technician?) were black. Were famous blacks more likely to die because they had pre-existing conditions, or because of lower Vitamin D levels, or because they were less careful and exposed themselves to the virus?

    OTOH, coronavirus did do us the service of killing at least two serial killers, one of whom was one of the under-60 whites.

    • Agree: BB753, Alden
    • Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome
    @Wilkey



    Were famous blacks more likely to die because they had pre-existing conditions

     

    Black mostly live in D run cities.
  84. It’s interesting to see “Serial killer” listed as an occupation.

    Apparently the most sinister of viruses took Scott Erskine from this world prematurely.

    Damn you SARS-CoV-2!

    • LOL: Achmed E. Newman
  85. @JohnnyWalker123
    This study claims the average number years of life lost due to COVID was 10.8 years. See below.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.08.20050559v2

    Background: COVID-19 was the leading cause of death in the United States over the three-month period March through May 2020. Another perspective is COVID-19s toll in terms of years of life lost. We calculated years of life lost for COVID-19 and other leading causes of death over those three months in the US. We also predicted years of life lost for COVID-19 and ischemic heart diseases (which includes heart attacks) for March through August 2020. Methods: Years of life lost are the sum of differences between life expectancy at age of death and age at death. Average years of life lost, years of life lost divided by the number of deaths, were also calculated. We used the COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning model to predict years of life lost from COVID-19 through the end of August 2020. Results: COVID-19 caused 12,035 more deaths than ischemic heart diseases during March through May 2020 but ischemic heart diseases years of life lost were 1.5% greater than those for COVID-19. Average years of life lost were 10.8 and 12.4 for COVID-19 and ischemic heart diseases, respectively. At the end of August, COVID-19 may overtake ischemic heart diseases as the leading cause of deaths and years of life lost in the US. Conclusion: Each COVID-19 death causes more than a decade of lost life in the US. We are reminded of a Danish Proverb that states Prediction is difficult, especially when dealing with the future. We suggest that while dying is bad, losing life is even worse.

     

    Here's another study. See below. 13 years lost for men, 11 years for women (after adjustments for long-term conditions).

    https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75

    Results: Using the standard WHO life tables, YLL per COVID-19 death was 14 for men and 12 for women. After adjustment for number and type of LTCs, the mean YLL was slightly lower, but remained high (13 and 11 years for men and women, respectively). The number and type of LTCs led to wide variability in the estimated YLL at a given age (e.g. at ≥80 years, YLL was >10 years for people with 0 LTCs, and <3 years for people with ≥6).

     

    Another study (see below) calculated that the median age of COVID death in the United States was 78. For people who are 78, life expectancy is roughly 10.1 years.

    I believe the median age of death in the United States is 82.4.

    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6928e1.htm

    Median decedent age was 78 years

     

    Here's another interesting study (see below). The study claims that if 1 million Americans died of COVID, the average loss of life expectancy would be 11.7 years for those who died. For those who lived through COVID, the loss of life life expectancy would be 0.2 years at age 80. For the entire country as a whole, average life expectancy would drop by 2.9 years in 2020.

    https://www.pnas.org/content/117/36/22035

    What would a hypothetical 1 million US deaths in the COVID-19 epidemic mean for mortality of individuals at the population level? Life expectancy for 2020 would drop by 2.9 y. Those dying would lose an average of 11.7 y of expected remaining life, while for the general population the loss of remaining life would be 0.2 y for elders (at age 80) and much less at younger ages. Mortality per person would be less than that of the Spanish flu, but closer to that of the opioid and HIV/AIDS epidemics, while far more concentrated in time. The standard valuation of averting 1.75 million deaths would be many trillions of dollars.

     

    The above study claimed that if America avoided 1.75 million deaths, $10.2-$17.5 trillion would be saved.

    Avoiding 1.75 million deaths or 20.5 trillion person years of life lost would be valued at $10.2 to $17.5 trillion.

     

    I haven't personally evaluated any of the above studies, but they're worth reading for sure. The studies seem to suggest 10-13 years of life expectancy are lost by those who die from COVID.

    Replies: @Mark G., @Jack D, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Hippopotamusdrome, @res, @AnotherDad, @Shaq, @Jus' Sayin'...

    Speculative bunk.

    CDC admitted late August that in 94% of deaths attributed to BULL$$HIT-2020, the decedent had an average of 2.6 other fatal illnesses. So take this list and multiply by .06: at best, ten of the people on this list died of BS20 and the other 147 died of other diseases. Only their lying, money-grubbing doctors know for sure.

    It’s a medical coding fraud, you imbecile diaperfaces.

    • Agree: Travis, Adam Smith
  86. @Chrisnonymous
    I was browsing that list and saw Lloyd Cadena, aged 26.
    26! So, I clicked the link to his Wikipedia page...

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/3/3c/Lloydcadena.jpg

    He's a fatty.


    - zinc
    - quercetin
    - Vitamin D
    - N acetylcysteine
    - sunlight/nature exposure
    - moderate exercise
    - lots of sleep
    - lose weight/low-GI diet
    - say your prayers
    - buy an oximeter

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous

    Before Coronavirus, PD Mangan used to Tweet that being obese and being old were the same thing–being obese is like aging yourself unnaturally. That’s overstated, but we can see from the pattern of deaths some kind of relationship between the two.

    Is my previous comment sitting in moderation after other later comments have been approved because Steve has started censoring? Inquiring minds….

  87. @prosa123
    @Dan Hayes

    Subway closures 1-5 AM have also long been sought for cost savings. Grand Central Terminal has long been closed overnight, whereas NE Corridor service precludes Penn Station closure.

    Whatever cost savings might exist, 24 hour subway service has always been a tradition in New York, so an overnight shutdown - whether for "deep cleaning" or ejecting skells - is quite revolutionary. So far the MTA hasn't announced anything about return of overnight service, but with the deep cleaning cover story getting harder and harder to believe they'll have to do something soon.

    Penn Station also gets a small amount of Long Island Rail Road service in the overnight hours. For example, a train to Huntington leaves at 3:07 am and an inbound train from Ronkonkoma arrives three minutes later. There may also be some New Jersey Transit train service in those hours, though I'm not sure.

    Replies: @Jack D

    There are a lot of “traditions” that are going to have to go. The MTA has a HUGE hole in its budget. Revenues are way down, state and local tax collections are down. Their only real hope is for (more) massive Federal relief. If the Dems sweep the election, Schumer will write them a check with lots and lots of digits.

    The trains that ran in the middle of the night must have been ESPECIALLY loss making. They probably could have bought Uber rides for everyone on the subway at 3AM and saved money vs. running the trains. The subway makes a lot of sense at rush hour when you could not possibly move that many people on surface streets but at 3AM there is no traffic and it does no harm to push the subway riders to cheaper means of surface transportation. Most cities around the world close their metros in the middle of the night. For essential workers you can run night buses on limited routes.

    • Thanks: Dan Hayes
    • Replies: @Alden
    @Jack D

    Don’t forget that public transit is a massive affirmative action program for blacks and now immigrants.

    Evening shifts end at 10 or 11 pm. They should be able to get home by 12 when service ends . The only people commuting at 4am are food and postal workers who start at 5am. Postal workers have cars.

    Perhaps the employers of the food workers could pay them enough to afford cars. Or arrange some sort of van pick up for them. Many of those 5 am food workers work in hospital and college cafeterias and the big chains like Denny’s , Burger King McDonald’s and IHOP Starbuck’s that do a big breakfast business. Surely some kind of employee van or carpool can be arranged

    Therefore, the taxpayers are subsidizing the low wages of the food workers by providing public transit so they can get to work at 5 am.

    Cutting off public transit at 11/30 or midnight lowers the crime rate. Fewer victims waiting for subways and buses.

    Replies: @Johann Ricke

    , @AnotherDad
    @Jack D


    If the Dems sweep the election, Schumer will write them a check with lots and lots of digits.
     
    Immigration is always critical issue #1--it's what is destroying America.

    But you are spot on here.

    The premise of federalism is that people in the various states--and below them counties, cities, towns--will govern themselves in the manner appropriate to their own culture and circumstances... but--critically--be responsible for their decisions. If a state or city's decisions are spendthrift or destructive that state or city suffers the costs, the consequences.

    The Democrats intend to blow that up. To bail out the Democrat states and cities that have made a complete hash of governing--taxes, spending, welfare, criminal justice--dug themselves a deep fiscal hole and that people are fleeing ... and dump the bill on the rest of us by tapping the status of the US as the world's reserve currency, the Fed's money printing power.

    The Democrats are intent on blowing up federalism and blowing up the fiscal future of the nation.

    Trump needs to be tooting on this 24-7: Democrat politicians are going to loot you to bail out their mistakes and misgoverning. And Trump should insist that all corona spending go to the people. If greedy, grasping Democrat politicians want it, they have to tax their voters to get it. No bailouts for spendthrift, incompetent politicians.
  88. I recognized 10 of the names, and then recognized about 5 others after reading the description section.

    Question- was it reported at the time of his death that Tom Seaver had COVID? I don’t remember any of the stories mentioning it at the time.

  89. Did you break down male/female? Seems heavily male to me. Is it that more men than women are famous, or that this virus kills more men generally?

    I know three people personally who’ve had it and they’re all male. Granted, that includes two of my immediate family members.

    • Replies: @prosa123
    @stillCARealist

    Men have a higher death rate than women. It's likely because men are more likely to have comorbidities. In addition, obesity is a major risk factor for men but not for women; the difference is that women tend to carry extra weight on their hips and rear ends, where it's generally harmless, while men carry extra weight on their abdomens, where it's a recognized health risk and not just for the virus.

  90. No great losses among the youngish, and the rest are mostly old farts who would have died anyway sooner or later. Sorry to be blunt.

  91. @kaganovitch
    There appears to be a disproportionate toll on serial killer-Americans and their accomplices. In our deranged times , we should doubtless expect a grass roots SKLM movement.

    Replies: @Wilkey, @Feryl

    Well we were repeatedly told that we needed to let people out of prison because coronavirus was going to rage through the prisons and kill them all. A more rational society might have seen that as a good thing.

    That’s sort of the irony of the coronavirus response. Two of the big complaints of modern society, and why we’re going broke, are the enormous cost of prisons and the enormous cost of elder care.

    No, I’m not really suggesting that we should have let it happen. Just that this is one of the reasons that the costs of government are getting so out of hand. We shut down the productive parts of our economy and borrowed (or printed) a shitload of money in order to keep the net liabilities alive. And then we watched as people spent four months (and counting) rioting and looting on behalf of another unproductive part of our society. It really is a conundrum.

  92. @Jack D
    I don't know whether it is the result of more effective medical treatment or the lockdowns or the fact that people are wearing masks, or that all of the low hanging fruit has been picked, but at least in my county people have largely (if not entirely) stopped dying from Covid. In the 3 month period April 1 - June 30 in my county of 800,000 there were almost 800 Covid attributed deaths (average age 80.75) and since then there have been 30, or about 1 every 3 days. In other places that had a big first wave (e.g. NYC) I think that the ratios are similar.

    Now maybe, to use Ginsburg's analogy, the lockdowns are the umbrella that is the very thing that is keeping us from getting wet and so as soon as we discard the umbrella wetness will follow, but it's hard to justify keeping the economy still largely closed for a disease that is no longer a major cause of death.

    Replies: @Travis

    The lockdowns did not work. The lockdowns here in NJ started on March 12. They started shutting down the schools here on March 12. The local Costco was sold out of rice on March 7th. I know because I though I was ahead of the curve when I went to prepare for the coming pandemic and took a picture of the barren shelves to show my wife. So People in NY and NJ were preparing for the coming pandemic and taking precautions already, washing hands, buying masks etc…

    Yet the peak in cases and deaths occurred weeks later. Deaths peaked during the third week in April in NJ. 4 weeks after the lockdowns, 4 weeks after all the schools were closed, 4 weeks after they closed the stock exchange, 4 weeks after the lockdowns indicates that they had little to no effect on the pandemic here in NJ

    As the lockdowns ended in places across the world we have never seen a rise in fatalities. The same patterns are observed in Europe and Asia. When the lockdowns ended there was no spike in fatalities. If you look at places like Arizona, Texas, Florida and Georgia, the reproduction number, Rt, is lower than during lockdown.

    The lockdowns were supposedly done to flatten the curve and spread out the deaths over a few months instead of having all the vulnerable die over a few weeks. Maybe a few more people would have died in April without the lockdowns. But it is well past time to end the lockdowns and open the schools. Sad that the lockdowns continue and the schools remain mostly closed here in NJ. Sweden kept their schools open and not a single child died from Covid of over 1.8 million kids.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Travis


    People in NY and NJ were preparing for the coming pandemic and taking precautions already, washing hands, buying masks etc…
     
    On the one hand, the masks disappeared from the shelves almost immediately but OTOH, people were not actually wearing them. It was mostly speculators grabbing them up for resale.

    I ordered a few N95s (not nearly enough in retrospect) in mid-February and they were already starting to disappear from the shelves.

    But remember this?

    https://twitter.com/surgeon_general/status/1233725785283932160?lang=en

    On Feb. 29, the Surgeon General told us to "STOP BUYING MASKS! They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus". But, OTOH, they have the magical property that they ARE effective for health care providers so we should save them for them. (The photo adds a special twist).

    The way that this works is that the virus checks if you have a medical or nursing license in your wallet. If you do, then it will not penetrate your mask. But if you don't, then the mask is NOT effective for you. Anyway, health care providers under go very special training on how to put a mask on their face, which you don't have. Did you know that 3 years out of the 4 year med school curriculum are devoted ONLY to mask fitting?

    Replies: @utu, @Jonathan Mason

    , @utu
    @Travis

    " The lockdowns here in NJ started on March 12. " - NJ went to near-lockdown mode on Sat March 21
    https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/03/new-jersey-lockdown-rules-what-residents-need-to-know-about-stay-at-home-order.html

    The peak of NJ daily deaths occurred around April 21 which is about 4 weeks after the start of the lockdown.
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-jersey/

    3 week delay would be expected so there is an extra week that would need to be explained. Clearly infections were occurring after the lockdown for many reasons. The lockdown was not strict. Many people were going to work and doing shopping and most importantly they were not wearing masks and the Chasidic Jews were having weddings and whatnot.

    As the lockdowns ended in places across the world we have never seen a rise in fatalities. The same patterns are observed in Europe and Asia. - Different places have different explanations. People wear masks in NY so infections do not grow. Then mortality dropped because treatment improved possibly by factor of 5. Then old people are being taken care of better to shield them: more awareness. In Czech Republic fatalities in the second wave are growing pretty strong.

    "Sweden kept their schools open and not a single child died from Covid of over 1.8 million kids." - Not all of them. Only for those under 16 schools were closed. Closing schools was not about kids dying but about spreading the virus to the vulnerable. Not surprisingly Sweden ended up having 10 times higher per capita death rate than its neighboring Nordic countries (when population density is taken into account).

    Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter, @Travis

  93. @Steve Sailer
    @moshe

    They don't count George Floyd as dying of COVID19.

    Replies: @Anon, @Hippopotamusdrome, @AnotherDad, @Reg Cæsar

    How do we know he wasn’t? Can the public inspect the appropriate documents?

  94. Premises, Premises, Premises.

    “large death toll from the coronavirus”

    Steve, give it up. You were wrong, spectacularly so.

    • Agree: Je Suis Omar Mateen
  95. In the UK ONLY 307 people under 60 yrs (without illnesses) have died of COVID.

    307!

  96. @JohnnyWalker123
    This study claims the average number years of life lost due to COVID was 10.8 years. See below.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.08.20050559v2

    Background: COVID-19 was the leading cause of death in the United States over the three-month period March through May 2020. Another perspective is COVID-19s toll in terms of years of life lost. We calculated years of life lost for COVID-19 and other leading causes of death over those three months in the US. We also predicted years of life lost for COVID-19 and ischemic heart diseases (which includes heart attacks) for March through August 2020. Methods: Years of life lost are the sum of differences between life expectancy at age of death and age at death. Average years of life lost, years of life lost divided by the number of deaths, were also calculated. We used the COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning model to predict years of life lost from COVID-19 through the end of August 2020. Results: COVID-19 caused 12,035 more deaths than ischemic heart diseases during March through May 2020 but ischemic heart diseases years of life lost were 1.5% greater than those for COVID-19. Average years of life lost were 10.8 and 12.4 for COVID-19 and ischemic heart diseases, respectively. At the end of August, COVID-19 may overtake ischemic heart diseases as the leading cause of deaths and years of life lost in the US. Conclusion: Each COVID-19 death causes more than a decade of lost life in the US. We are reminded of a Danish Proverb that states Prediction is difficult, especially when dealing with the future. We suggest that while dying is bad, losing life is even worse.

     

    Here's another study. See below. 13 years lost for men, 11 years for women (after adjustments for long-term conditions).

    https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75

    Results: Using the standard WHO life tables, YLL per COVID-19 death was 14 for men and 12 for women. After adjustment for number and type of LTCs, the mean YLL was slightly lower, but remained high (13 and 11 years for men and women, respectively). The number and type of LTCs led to wide variability in the estimated YLL at a given age (e.g. at ≥80 years, YLL was >10 years for people with 0 LTCs, and <3 years for people with ≥6).

     

    Another study (see below) calculated that the median age of COVID death in the United States was 78. For people who are 78, life expectancy is roughly 10.1 years.

    I believe the median age of death in the United States is 82.4.

    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6928e1.htm

    Median decedent age was 78 years

     

    Here's another interesting study (see below). The study claims that if 1 million Americans died of COVID, the average loss of life expectancy would be 11.7 years for those who died. For those who lived through COVID, the loss of life life expectancy would be 0.2 years at age 80. For the entire country as a whole, average life expectancy would drop by 2.9 years in 2020.

    https://www.pnas.org/content/117/36/22035

    What would a hypothetical 1 million US deaths in the COVID-19 epidemic mean for mortality of individuals at the population level? Life expectancy for 2020 would drop by 2.9 y. Those dying would lose an average of 11.7 y of expected remaining life, while for the general population the loss of remaining life would be 0.2 y for elders (at age 80) and much less at younger ages. Mortality per person would be less than that of the Spanish flu, but closer to that of the opioid and HIV/AIDS epidemics, while far more concentrated in time. The standard valuation of averting 1.75 million deaths would be many trillions of dollars.

     

    The above study claimed that if America avoided 1.75 million deaths, $10.2-$17.5 trillion would be saved.

    Avoiding 1.75 million deaths or 20.5 trillion person years of life lost would be valued at $10.2 to $17.5 trillion.

     

    I haven't personally evaluated any of the above studies, but they're worth reading for sure. The studies seem to suggest 10-13 years of life expectancy are lost by those who die from COVID.

    Replies: @Mark G., @Jack D, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Hippopotamusdrome, @res, @AnotherDad, @Shaq, @Jus' Sayin'...

    Methods: Years of life lost are the sum of differences between life expectancy at age of death and age at death

    That is a very rough calculation. Nursing home inmates have life expectancy measured in single digit months, and these are around half of all Covid deaths.

    It is logical to assume that people who die will be those with the weakest constitutions first, and these have lower life expectancy than average.

  97. @JimDandy
    I wish I knew how many of them actually died of Covid. But I don't.

    Replies: @Alden

    About 9,500 Americans actually died of covid hoax. The average age of all true and alleged , fraudulent, fake 200,000 deaths is 78, is about the average age of death for all races and the numerous genders of Americans.

    I knew from day one it’s a hoax. How did I know? I read it in the NYSLIMES, Washington Post, and other newspapers and heard about it on the TV news.

    Tried and true rule; if it’s in the newspapers, it’s a lie.

    • Agree: Piglet
    • Thanks: JimDandy
  98. The claims to fame of some of the younger people on the list are tenuous at best. One of them is supposedly famous for being a drag queen. Another is a “Deep house DJ” (whatever the hell that means). Fred the Godson was apparently a DJ and a rapper. The famous “biologist” apparently didn’t have a PhD.

    I’ve lived in Louisiana my whole life but I don’t think I’ve ever heard of Reggie Bagala, who apparently served in the Louisiana Legislature for four months.

  99. @Wilkey
    @Steve Sailer


    New York City in the week ending April 11, 2020 had about 7.5 times as many deaths as would normally be expected for that week. That was really scary. After that, however, the excess deaths in NYC rapidly diminished and soon disappeared.
     
    And I would guess that death rates in NYC for the remaining eight months of the year, and perhaps into next year, will be below normal - before taking Black Lives Matter into account, anyway.

    Not to make light of coronavirus or those who died, but this virus is killing a lot of people who would have died soon, anyway. In some cases, coronavirus may have played the part of "the old man's friend," as pneumonia is often called, bringing an end to the lives of people with a host of other painful ailments.

    As for early deaths, I count only 24 deaths under the age of 60. Of those deaths 11 were black, 4 were Hispanic, and 1 was Thai. The rest were white. So about half of the famous under-60s (one of whom was a famous...lab technician?) were black. Were famous blacks more likely to die because they had pre-existing conditions, or because of lower Vitamin D levels, or because they were less careful and exposed themselves to the virus?

    OTOH, coronavirus did do us the service of killing at least two serial killers, one of whom was one of the under-60 whites.

    Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome

    Were famous blacks more likely to die because they had pre-existing conditions

    Black mostly live in D run cities.

  100. @Anonymous
    @Mr. Anon

    We already have 1 billion Americans. The total population of North, Central, and South America combined is currently almost exactly 1 billion, slightly more than 1 billion in fact.

    With the Monroe Doctrine, US hegemony in the Americas, weak border controls, and a total population of the Americas already at 1 billion, we already effectively have the 1 billion Americans scenario.

    What Yglesias is calling for is for every person currently in Central and South America to move to the US so that 1 billion people are concentrated in the US.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Alice in Wonderland

    What Yglesias is calling for is for every person currently in Central and South America to move to the US so that 1 billion people are concentrated in the US.

    Wouldn’t that make the USA much whiter?

    This is like the joke about moving the border between Iowa and Minnesota thereby making both states smarter. In this case it would make both the USA and South America whiter.

  101. Whatever happened to zero population growth?

    I thought liberals were all about lower population and lower per capita consumption and lower CO2 emissions?

    No one moves to the USA to consume less of anything. 100% of immigrants are greedy for more more more.

  102. @Jack D
    @prosa123

    There are a lot of "traditions" that are going to have to go. The MTA has a HUGE hole in its budget. Revenues are way down, state and local tax collections are down. Their only real hope is for (more) massive Federal relief. If the Dems sweep the election, Schumer will write them a check with lots and lots of digits.

    The trains that ran in the middle of the night must have been ESPECIALLY loss making. They probably could have bought Uber rides for everyone on the subway at 3AM and saved money vs. running the trains. The subway makes a lot of sense at rush hour when you could not possibly move that many people on surface streets but at 3AM there is no traffic and it does no harm to push the subway riders to cheaper means of surface transportation. Most cities around the world close their metros in the middle of the night. For essential workers you can run night buses on limited routes.

    Replies: @Alden, @AnotherDad

    Don’t forget that public transit is a massive affirmative action program for blacks and now immigrants.

    Evening shifts end at 10 or 11 pm. They should be able to get home by 12 when service ends . The only people commuting at 4am are food and postal workers who start at 5am. Postal workers have cars.

    Perhaps the employers of the food workers could pay them enough to afford cars. Or arrange some sort of van pick up for them. Many of those 5 am food workers work in hospital and college cafeterias and the big chains like Denny’s , Burger King McDonald’s and IHOP Starbuck’s that do a big breakfast business. Surely some kind of employee van or carpool can be arranged

    Therefore, the taxpayers are subsidizing the low wages of the food workers by providing public transit so they can get to work at 5 am.

    Cutting off public transit at 11/30 or midnight lowers the crime rate. Fewer victims waiting for subways and buses.

    • Thanks: Dan Hayes
    • Replies: @Johann Ricke
    @Alden


    Don’t forget that public transit is a massive affirmative action program for blacks
     
    Blacks are definitely very well-represented in the MTA. By the time the layoffs are done, it might be majority black.

    https://comptroller.nyc.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/7_Race_Pie.png
  103. Coronavirus-hawks have psychological risk-aversion issues*. They should get checked out by a psychologist.

    Or they are just manufacturing Trump administration schadenfreude.

    * I realize that a few people on our side of the fence are like this. We love you anyway!
    ** Liberalism could almost be defined as “hyper risk-aversion plus ignorance of unintended consequences”.

  104. I would like to note that I wrote the following as a comment here ON MARCH 15, at the very height of the covid panic, and I have never wavered from this view.

    In a rational world I would receive public aclaim for having seen through the whole sham from the very start, and my thoughts and advice would be sought over those (almost everyone) who fell for The Panic.

    But we’re not living in that world now are we?

    Assuming a recognizable future, a Pinker-type book will have a footnote about the hilarious Great Coronavirus Panic of 2020 that will sound too exaggerated to take seriously.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @moshe

    OK, so you've got me beat by 4 days - "The Kung Flu - SHTF or Infotainment Panic-Fest?". Still, please keep me in mind when People magazine calls you for an interview.

    , @Travis
    @moshe

    So true. The media started this panic to derail the economy, and it worked....but it also resulted in massive civil unrest as people went insane due to the lockdowns, the closing of schools, sports, clubs, bars, churches etc...

    Yet the panic continues, despite knowing that this virus hardly makes people sick. Most infected people are asymptomatic. The fatality rate is now being estimated at .2% and is actually lower than the Flu fatality rate for those under the age of 50.

  105. Let’s talk about folks 65+ dying.

    As long as they live, money is transferred to them from productive younger Americans and disproportionally spent by them on health services.

    If they die, their heirs inherit from them and productive workers don’t have to pay their medical and support costs.

    There is no way that their deaths cost trillions of dollars.

    …unless this is some “complex” who/whom analysis of who should benefit and who should not.

  106. @Mr. Anon
    OT: Glenn Beck agrees with Matt Yglesias - wants one billion Americans:

    https://twitter.com/glennbeck/status/1307472038123073536

    Ben Shapiro agrees too. Well, maybe not with the one-billion figure, but he wants more immigration.

    With "conservatives" like these.......................

    Replies: @Anonymous, @MarkinLA, @Anonymous Jew

    I’m long past the point where I’m willing to support any standard, old school Progressive that is opposed to invade the world invite the world.

    A conservative approach to various public policies is just dandy and all, but I’d take 1990’s Sweden over a Brazil run by ‘conservatives’. Any day and twice on Sunday.

    On topic. From a policy standpoint COVID-19 simply doesn’t kill enough people to justify a lockdown. That’s really all there is to it.

    • Agree: Lot
    • Replies: @Libre
    @Anonymous Jew

    Really? Sweden which is turning into afroarabia?

    And no shiznit, anyone with a brain knew that from the start. They could've said nothing and nobody would've noticed anything

  107. I got excited when I saw David Brooks on the list — but sorry, false alarm.

  108. @JohnnyWalker123
    This study claims the average number years of life lost due to COVID was 10.8 years. See below.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.08.20050559v2

    Background: COVID-19 was the leading cause of death in the United States over the three-month period March through May 2020. Another perspective is COVID-19s toll in terms of years of life lost. We calculated years of life lost for COVID-19 and other leading causes of death over those three months in the US. We also predicted years of life lost for COVID-19 and ischemic heart diseases (which includes heart attacks) for March through August 2020. Methods: Years of life lost are the sum of differences between life expectancy at age of death and age at death. Average years of life lost, years of life lost divided by the number of deaths, were also calculated. We used the COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning model to predict years of life lost from COVID-19 through the end of August 2020. Results: COVID-19 caused 12,035 more deaths than ischemic heart diseases during March through May 2020 but ischemic heart diseases years of life lost were 1.5% greater than those for COVID-19. Average years of life lost were 10.8 and 12.4 for COVID-19 and ischemic heart diseases, respectively. At the end of August, COVID-19 may overtake ischemic heart diseases as the leading cause of deaths and years of life lost in the US. Conclusion: Each COVID-19 death causes more than a decade of lost life in the US. We are reminded of a Danish Proverb that states Prediction is difficult, especially when dealing with the future. We suggest that while dying is bad, losing life is even worse.

     

    Here's another study. See below. 13 years lost for men, 11 years for women (after adjustments for long-term conditions).

    https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75

    Results: Using the standard WHO life tables, YLL per COVID-19 death was 14 for men and 12 for women. After adjustment for number and type of LTCs, the mean YLL was slightly lower, but remained high (13 and 11 years for men and women, respectively). The number and type of LTCs led to wide variability in the estimated YLL at a given age (e.g. at ≥80 years, YLL was >10 years for people with 0 LTCs, and <3 years for people with ≥6).

     

    Another study (see below) calculated that the median age of COVID death in the United States was 78. For people who are 78, life expectancy is roughly 10.1 years.

    I believe the median age of death in the United States is 82.4.

    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6928e1.htm

    Median decedent age was 78 years

     

    Here's another interesting study (see below). The study claims that if 1 million Americans died of COVID, the average loss of life expectancy would be 11.7 years for those who died. For those who lived through COVID, the loss of life life expectancy would be 0.2 years at age 80. For the entire country as a whole, average life expectancy would drop by 2.9 years in 2020.

    https://www.pnas.org/content/117/36/22035

    What would a hypothetical 1 million US deaths in the COVID-19 epidemic mean for mortality of individuals at the population level? Life expectancy for 2020 would drop by 2.9 y. Those dying would lose an average of 11.7 y of expected remaining life, while for the general population the loss of remaining life would be 0.2 y for elders (at age 80) and much less at younger ages. Mortality per person would be less than that of the Spanish flu, but closer to that of the opioid and HIV/AIDS epidemics, while far more concentrated in time. The standard valuation of averting 1.75 million deaths would be many trillions of dollars.

     

    The above study claimed that if America avoided 1.75 million deaths, $10.2-$17.5 trillion would be saved.

    Avoiding 1.75 million deaths or 20.5 trillion person years of life lost would be valued at $10.2 to $17.5 trillion.

     

    I haven't personally evaluated any of the above studies, but they're worth reading for sure. The studies seem to suggest 10-13 years of life expectancy are lost by those who die from COVID.

    Replies: @Mark G., @Jack D, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Hippopotamusdrome, @res, @AnotherDad, @Shaq, @Jus' Sayin'...

    Do you have a sense of how many of those studies accounted for the typical poorer health of COVID-19 victims?

    I discussed Andrew Brigg’s analysis of COVID-19 QALYs in this comment back in May.
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/how-many-quality-adjusted-life-years-is-coronavirus-costing/#comment-3915503

    The numbers in your comment seem more like his SMR1 (normal risk) US estimate of about 10.5 years. His more realistic (I think) SMR2 estimate (2x normal risk) was about 7 years. His SMR3 estimate (3x normal risk) was a bit over 5 years.

    P.S. Also see Jack D’s comment. I am just giving some numbers for that point.

  109. Just realized I did a 90-minute profile interview with someone on that list, someone who did perhaps die before their time but for years had been dealing with serious illness

  110. Steve, any idea if we could get statistics for the number of people who meet your criteria along with their age demographics? That would help for establishing rates. The closest thing I have been able to find is the estimate of 973,309 total pages in category “Living people” at
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Living_people

  111. @JohnnyWalker123
    This study claims the average number years of life lost due to COVID was 10.8 years. See below.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.08.20050559v2

    Background: COVID-19 was the leading cause of death in the United States over the three-month period March through May 2020. Another perspective is COVID-19s toll in terms of years of life lost. We calculated years of life lost for COVID-19 and other leading causes of death over those three months in the US. We also predicted years of life lost for COVID-19 and ischemic heart diseases (which includes heart attacks) for March through August 2020. Methods: Years of life lost are the sum of differences between life expectancy at age of death and age at death. Average years of life lost, years of life lost divided by the number of deaths, were also calculated. We used the COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning model to predict years of life lost from COVID-19 through the end of August 2020. Results: COVID-19 caused 12,035 more deaths than ischemic heart diseases during March through May 2020 but ischemic heart diseases years of life lost were 1.5% greater than those for COVID-19. Average years of life lost were 10.8 and 12.4 for COVID-19 and ischemic heart diseases, respectively. At the end of August, COVID-19 may overtake ischemic heart diseases as the leading cause of deaths and years of life lost in the US. Conclusion: Each COVID-19 death causes more than a decade of lost life in the US. We are reminded of a Danish Proverb that states Prediction is difficult, especially when dealing with the future. We suggest that while dying is bad, losing life is even worse.

     

    Here's another study. See below. 13 years lost for men, 11 years for women (after adjustments for long-term conditions).

    https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75

    Results: Using the standard WHO life tables, YLL per COVID-19 death was 14 for men and 12 for women. After adjustment for number and type of LTCs, the mean YLL was slightly lower, but remained high (13 and 11 years for men and women, respectively). The number and type of LTCs led to wide variability in the estimated YLL at a given age (e.g. at ≥80 years, YLL was >10 years for people with 0 LTCs, and <3 years for people with ≥6).

     

    Another study (see below) calculated that the median age of COVID death in the United States was 78. For people who are 78, life expectancy is roughly 10.1 years.

    I believe the median age of death in the United States is 82.4.

    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6928e1.htm

    Median decedent age was 78 years

     

    Here's another interesting study (see below). The study claims that if 1 million Americans died of COVID, the average loss of life expectancy would be 11.7 years for those who died. For those who lived through COVID, the loss of life life expectancy would be 0.2 years at age 80. For the entire country as a whole, average life expectancy would drop by 2.9 years in 2020.

    https://www.pnas.org/content/117/36/22035

    What would a hypothetical 1 million US deaths in the COVID-19 epidemic mean for mortality of individuals at the population level? Life expectancy for 2020 would drop by 2.9 y. Those dying would lose an average of 11.7 y of expected remaining life, while for the general population the loss of remaining life would be 0.2 y for elders (at age 80) and much less at younger ages. Mortality per person would be less than that of the Spanish flu, but closer to that of the opioid and HIV/AIDS epidemics, while far more concentrated in time. The standard valuation of averting 1.75 million deaths would be many trillions of dollars.

     

    The above study claimed that if America avoided 1.75 million deaths, $10.2-$17.5 trillion would be saved.

    Avoiding 1.75 million deaths or 20.5 trillion person years of life lost would be valued at $10.2 to $17.5 trillion.

     

    I haven't personally evaluated any of the above studies, but they're worth reading for sure. The studies seem to suggest 10-13 years of life expectancy are lost by those who die from COVID.

    Replies: @Mark G., @Jack D, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Hippopotamusdrome, @res, @AnotherDad, @Shaq, @Jus' Sayin'...

    I haven’t personally evaluated any of the above studies, but they’re worth reading for sure. The studies seem to suggest 10-13 years of life expectancy are lost by those who die from COVID.

    A guy who believes that should certainly believe Epstein killed himself.

    • Replies: @moshe
    @AnotherDad

    Welcome to the side of sanity.

  112. @Steve Sailer
    @Mike Pierson, Davenport Rector, Midfielder

    Lots of graphs of excess deaths here:

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

    New York City in the week ending April 11, 2020 had about 7.5 times as many deaths as would normally be expected for that week.

    That was really scary. After that, however, the excess deaths in NYC rapidly diminished and soon disappeared.

    Replies: @Wilkey, @AnotherDad, @Jus' Sayin'...

    New York City in the week ending April 11, 2020 had about 7.5 times as many deaths as would normally be expected for that week.

    That was really scary. After that, however, the excess deaths in NYC rapidly diminished and soon disappeared.

    That’s cause Cuomo–citing “discrimination”–pushed the virus into every nursing home–slaughtering NYC’s elderly who were in the “just need a push” bucket.

    So now for this absolutely glaring incompetence, he’s a Democratic party hero.

    Separate nations.

    • Replies: @prosa123
    @AnotherDad

    As much as I loathe Cuomo, he may not be to blame for most of the nursing home deaths. The big surge in deaths began before he started transferring Covid patients to nursing homes, and likely resulted from employees bringing the virus into the facilities. Consider the recent outbreak at a wedding reception in Maine. Out of about 150 cases there were seven deaths, which happened because one of the attendees worked at a nursing home.

    The only effective way of protecting nursing home patients is what the owner of a Connecticut facility did. At the very beginning of the outbreak he moved several trailers onto the nursing home's property and had some of his employees move into them. The employees agreed not to leave the property, even when off-duty, until things quieted down, as far as I know they followed this arrangement for about three months. While this unorthodox approach prevented any cases from spreading to the nursing home, it was extremely expensive, with each participating employee being paid $15,000 per month.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    , @moshe
    @AnotherDad

    One of us!
    One of us!
    One of us!!!

    You’re exactly right. Or almost exactly. The Panic is what caused all those deaths – more iatrogenic deaths of people who never should have gone to the hospital, should not have been ventilated and in both hospitals and nursing homes a situation tantamount to murder where thousands of old people around the world were abandoned to die because their carers feared approaching anyone and there was no family in the nursing homes and hospitals to hold them to account.

    That’s why we mask.

    The powers that be are covering their asses for killing so many people in order to satisfy the public’s demand that they Do Something so they have to continue pretending that covid is serious.

    Furthermore, they now get to claim that those early deaths weren’t due to their incompetence as experts and leaders but to a serious disease that now has almost no more deaths because we are masking. That’s a hilariously ridiculous claim. 20% of New York City residents caught the rona DURING THE LOCKDOWN, but now we’re safe because some people occasionally mask up.

  113. @JohnnyWalker123
    This study claims the average number years of life lost due to COVID was 10.8 years. See below.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.08.20050559v2

    Background: COVID-19 was the leading cause of death in the United States over the three-month period March through May 2020. Another perspective is COVID-19s toll in terms of years of life lost. We calculated years of life lost for COVID-19 and other leading causes of death over those three months in the US. We also predicted years of life lost for COVID-19 and ischemic heart diseases (which includes heart attacks) for March through August 2020. Methods: Years of life lost are the sum of differences between life expectancy at age of death and age at death. Average years of life lost, years of life lost divided by the number of deaths, were also calculated. We used the COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning model to predict years of life lost from COVID-19 through the end of August 2020. Results: COVID-19 caused 12,035 more deaths than ischemic heart diseases during March through May 2020 but ischemic heart diseases years of life lost were 1.5% greater than those for COVID-19. Average years of life lost were 10.8 and 12.4 for COVID-19 and ischemic heart diseases, respectively. At the end of August, COVID-19 may overtake ischemic heart diseases as the leading cause of deaths and years of life lost in the US. Conclusion: Each COVID-19 death causes more than a decade of lost life in the US. We are reminded of a Danish Proverb that states Prediction is difficult, especially when dealing with the future. We suggest that while dying is bad, losing life is even worse.

     

    Here's another study. See below. 13 years lost for men, 11 years for women (after adjustments for long-term conditions).

    https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75

    Results: Using the standard WHO life tables, YLL per COVID-19 death was 14 for men and 12 for women. After adjustment for number and type of LTCs, the mean YLL was slightly lower, but remained high (13 and 11 years for men and women, respectively). The number and type of LTCs led to wide variability in the estimated YLL at a given age (e.g. at ≥80 years, YLL was >10 years for people with 0 LTCs, and <3 years for people with ≥6).

     

    Another study (see below) calculated that the median age of COVID death in the United States was 78. For people who are 78, life expectancy is roughly 10.1 years.

    I believe the median age of death in the United States is 82.4.

    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6928e1.htm

    Median decedent age was 78 years

     

    Here's another interesting study (see below). The study claims that if 1 million Americans died of COVID, the average loss of life expectancy would be 11.7 years for those who died. For those who lived through COVID, the loss of life life expectancy would be 0.2 years at age 80. For the entire country as a whole, average life expectancy would drop by 2.9 years in 2020.

    https://www.pnas.org/content/117/36/22035

    What would a hypothetical 1 million US deaths in the COVID-19 epidemic mean for mortality of individuals at the population level? Life expectancy for 2020 would drop by 2.9 y. Those dying would lose an average of 11.7 y of expected remaining life, while for the general population the loss of remaining life would be 0.2 y for elders (at age 80) and much less at younger ages. Mortality per person would be less than that of the Spanish flu, but closer to that of the opioid and HIV/AIDS epidemics, while far more concentrated in time. The standard valuation of averting 1.75 million deaths would be many trillions of dollars.

     

    The above study claimed that if America avoided 1.75 million deaths, $10.2-$17.5 trillion would be saved.

    Avoiding 1.75 million deaths or 20.5 trillion person years of life lost would be valued at $10.2 to $17.5 trillion.

     

    I haven't personally evaluated any of the above studies, but they're worth reading for sure. The studies seem to suggest 10-13 years of life expectancy are lost by those who die from COVID.

    Replies: @Mark G., @Jack D, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Hippopotamusdrome, @res, @AnotherDad, @Shaq, @Jus' Sayin'...

    Don’t mean to seem to crass given we’re dealing with the loss of life, but if those most affected are obese, have underlying medical conditions, etc., wouldn’t their deaths improve per capita income/wealth? My assumption is that they aren’t net savers (e.g., they are older, living off social security), and they likely are consuming more healthcare resources than the average person.

    I’m sure there are other unintended consequences and secondary/tertiary impacts that benefit society. It’s just uncomfortable thinking about them.

    • Agree: Jus' Sayin'...
  114. @Steve Sailer
    @moshe

    They don't count George Floyd as dying of COVID19.

    Replies: @Anon, @Hippopotamusdrome, @AnotherDad, @Reg Cæsar

    They don’t count George Floyd as dying of COVID19.

    Yep, the one man in the known universe who can not be Covid19 death.

    And weird, while his death–from the video to the autopsy–screams “OD”, it’s not outside the realm of possibility the having the Xi virus had damaged his heart and was a contributing factor.

  115. @Steve, it is more likely that people will write songs about Kyle Rittenhouse.

    BTW, if you want to donate to his defense, you can do so at https://fightback.law/

  116. @Steve Sailer
    @moshe

    They don't count George Floyd as dying of COVID19.

    Replies: @Anon, @Hippopotamusdrome, @AnotherDad, @Reg Cæsar

    How can the host be a “troll”? He’s on deck, supervising the toll plaza!

  117. @Jack D
    @prosa123

    There are a lot of "traditions" that are going to have to go. The MTA has a HUGE hole in its budget. Revenues are way down, state and local tax collections are down. Their only real hope is for (more) massive Federal relief. If the Dems sweep the election, Schumer will write them a check with lots and lots of digits.

    The trains that ran in the middle of the night must have been ESPECIALLY loss making. They probably could have bought Uber rides for everyone on the subway at 3AM and saved money vs. running the trains. The subway makes a lot of sense at rush hour when you could not possibly move that many people on surface streets but at 3AM there is no traffic and it does no harm to push the subway riders to cheaper means of surface transportation. Most cities around the world close their metros in the middle of the night. For essential workers you can run night buses on limited routes.

    Replies: @Alden, @AnotherDad

    If the Dems sweep the election, Schumer will write them a check with lots and lots of digits.

    Immigration is always critical issue #1–it’s what is destroying America.

    But you are spot on here.

    The premise of federalism is that people in the various states–and below them counties, cities, towns–will govern themselves in the manner appropriate to their own culture and circumstances… but–critically–be responsible for their decisions. If a state or city’s decisions are spendthrift or destructive that state or city suffers the costs, the consequences.

    The Democrats intend to blow that up. To bail out the Democrat states and cities that have made a complete hash of governing–taxes, spending, welfare, criminal justice–dug themselves a deep fiscal hole and that people are fleeing … and dump the bill on the rest of us by tapping the status of the US as the world’s reserve currency, the Fed’s money printing power.

    The Democrats are intent on blowing up federalism and blowing up the fiscal future of the nation.

    Trump needs to be tooting on this 24-7: Democrat politicians are going to loot you to bail out their mistakes and misgoverning. And Trump should insist that all corona spending go to the people. If greedy, grasping Democrat politicians want it, they have to tax their voters to get it. No bailouts for spendthrift, incompetent politicians.

    • Agree: Mark G., Adam Smith
  118. @Dmitry
    Ones I noticed are

    Lee Konitz - famous saxophonist, who performed in "Birth of the Cool" in 1949 with Miles Davis.

    Madelin Kripke - I recognized this strange name, as it is the sister of a famous philosopher Saul Kripke.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madeline_Kripke

    Ellis Marsalis - I don't think he is a very important musician by himself, but he is the father of "jazz conservative" Wynton Marsalis.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Federalist

    Ellis Marsalis – I don’t think he is a very important musician by himself…

    Wrong.

  119. Toots Maytal-who is credited as the inventor of reggae music– is believed to have died of Covid-19, but I think he was 78. He was Jamaican, though, and I believe he had a history of smoking.

    Boris Johnson, had he succumbed, would have been the most famous person to die from it, though if Queen Elizabeth II or her hubby caught a dose of corona, then I guess she would grab a few headlines and millions would be banned from attending the funeral, which would have to be held in secret at midnight.

    Yes, what we need to really put Covid-19 on the map is for someone in their prime to be cut down, like Jimi Hendrix, who was a victim of the heroin epidemic–Taylor Swift, perhaps, or Hugh Jackman.

    Otherwise it might all seem like a hoax.

    • Replies: @prosa123
    @Jonathan Mason

    Boris Johnson has admitted that he was so ill from the virus because he is fat.

  120. Anon[229] • Disclaimer says:

    I only care about brilliant young people who can contribute to society by: 1) making movies and shows that force whites to understand the value of diversity and the browning of America 2) becoming a pansexual pop star to influence the next generation 3) lobbying Congress to bring in more immigrants so we can have ONE BILLION “Americans” 3) being the next “conservative” hack and con artist like Ben Shapiro and Glenn Beck

    Everyone else can drop dead. Their lives don’t matter.

  121. @Jack D
    @JohnnyWalker123

    I haven't read the studies either but I smell a methodological rat. Usually these estimates are predicated on the idea that the average Covid victim is in average health. If the average Covid victim is 78 years old and the average 78 year old has a 10 year life expectancy, we call it 10 years average life lost - as simple as that.

    That's simple and it's wrong because we know that Covid is an opportunistic killer. It doesn't randomly kill members of the herd like a lightning bolt. Rather it is like a lion who preys on the weakest members of the herd. Maybe the average 78 year old is going to live 10 more years but the average 78 year old who has Alzheimers and is living in a nursing home (a frequent profile of a Covid victim) is not.

    Replies: @Federalist

    Maybe the average 78 year old is going to live 10 more years but the average 78 year old who has Alzheimers and is living in a nursing home (a frequent profile of a Covid victim) is not.

    For example, Tom Dempsey (who for a long time had the longest NFL field goal) is listed as dying at the not-particularly-old age of 73. However, he had been diagnosed with dementia some time before and was a resident of a nursing home in New Orleans that was particularly hard hit by Covid 19 early on. Dempsey was already in very poor health. So, the virus was likely the immediate cause of his death (unlike in many cases where someone “with” coronavirus died of another cause). But he was very unlikely to live much longer had Covid-19 never existed.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Federalist

    Yes. The life expectancy of a 73 year old male is 12.4 years so according to these studies if someone who is 73 dies of Covid then we have experienced 12.4 life years lost (because the studies have no way of knowing or weighting the comorbidities). But there was no way that Dempsey was going to live another 12.4 years.

    And if you go by quality of life years lost it's even lower - his life was effectively over already. To the extent that Xi and Cuomo cleared out all of our nursing home memory loss wards they did everyone a big favor, even the families of those affected. People say they are sad when grandma (who no longer recognizes them when they visit and who wears diapers) dies but secretly they are relieved. Of course they would never do anything to speed up the process but when the Lord takes them He is doing them a favor. He is even doing grandma a favor. The only ones that benefit from those places are the nursing home operators who are making big $ sucking off of Medicaid.

    Replies: @Jim Don Bob

  122. Can’t Trump just write an executive order to declare that the pandemic is over?

  123. @ScarletNumber
    @Ben tillman

    Tom Dempsey is the epitome of that Whitney Houston song. The guy was under 50 percent in his career on field goal attempts of 40+ yards.

    Replies: @William Badwhite

    The guy was under 50 percent in his career on field goal attempts of 40+ yards.

    You can’t really compare generations when it comes to kickers. FG percentages in the 50’s and 60’s weren’t unusual until fairly recently (say the early 90’s or so).

    Kickers were often good athletes that played other positions in HS or even college (Mark Moseley was a quarterback at Stephen F. Austin) and then focused on kicking when they got to the NFL because that was the only way to stay on the team. Today virtually every kicker has focused on kicking and only kicking from the start, they go to summer camps, have private coaches, etc. The reason? Money. Even kickers can make life-changing money today.

    Someone making 65% of their field goals wouldn’t get a college scholarship today, much less be able to play professionally.

  124. @Jonathan Mason
    Toots Maytal-who is credited as the inventor of reggae music-- is believed to have died of Covid-19, but I think he was 78. He was Jamaican, though, and I believe he had a history of smoking.

    Boris Johnson, had he succumbed, would have been the most famous person to die from it, though if Queen Elizabeth II or her hubby caught a dose of corona, then I guess she would grab a few headlines and millions would be banned from attending the funeral, which would have to be held in secret at midnight.

    Yes, what we need to really put Covid-19 on the map is for someone in their prime to be cut down, like Jimi Hendrix, who was a victim of the heroin epidemic--Taylor Swift, perhaps, or Hugh Jackman.

    Otherwise it might all seem like a hoax.

    Replies: @prosa123

    Boris Johnson has admitted that he was so ill from the virus because he is fat.

  125. This may be a lot of work, but you can go into the “History” section of each Wikipedia page and see when the last pre-COVID update was made.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Nachum

    That's clever.

    We'd need a control group to compare this metric to, but that would be a good measure of in-the-newsness.

  126. A nice additional column would be any medical issues associated with each person…..so we can see the prevalence of the comorbidities.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @interesting

    You can look up the medical problems for the most famous, such as Tom Seaver, who retired from public appearances last year due to dementia.

  127. @stillCARealist
    Did you break down male/female? Seems heavily male to me. Is it that more men than women are famous, or that this virus kills more men generally?

    I know three people personally who've had it and they're all male. Granted, that includes two of my immediate family members.

    Replies: @prosa123

    Men have a higher death rate than women. It’s likely because men are more likely to have comorbidities. In addition, obesity is a major risk factor for men but not for women; the difference is that women tend to carry extra weight on their hips and rear ends, where it’s generally harmless, while men carry extra weight on their abdomens, where it’s a recognized health risk and not just for the virus.

  128. @Federalist
    @Jack D


    Maybe the average 78 year old is going to live 10 more years but the average 78 year old who has Alzheimers and is living in a nursing home (a frequent profile of a Covid victim) is not.
     
    For example, Tom Dempsey (who for a long time had the longest NFL field goal) is listed as dying at the not-particularly-old age of 73. However, he had been diagnosed with dementia some time before and was a resident of a nursing home in New Orleans that was particularly hard hit by Covid 19 early on. Dempsey was already in very poor health. So, the virus was likely the immediate cause of his death (unlike in many cases where someone "with" coronavirus died of another cause). But he was very unlikely to live much longer had Covid-19 never existed.

    Replies: @Jack D

    Yes. The life expectancy of a 73 year old male is 12.4 years so according to these studies if someone who is 73 dies of Covid then we have experienced 12.4 life years lost (because the studies have no way of knowing or weighting the comorbidities). But there was no way that Dempsey was going to live another 12.4 years.

    And if you go by quality of life years lost it’s even lower – his life was effectively over already. To the extent that Xi and Cuomo cleared out all of our nursing home memory loss wards they did everyone a big favor, even the families of those affected. People say they are sad when grandma (who no longer recognizes them when they visit and who wears diapers) dies but secretly they are relieved. Of course they would never do anything to speed up the process but when the Lord takes them He is doing them a favor. He is even doing grandma a favor. The only ones that benefit from those places are the nursing home operators who are making big $ sucking off of Medicaid.

    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob
    @Jack D

    There was one conspiracy theory I read that said Xi engineered and released the Kung Flue to kill off China's elderly.

  129. @Steve Sailer
    @Mike Pierson, Davenport Rector, Midfielder

    Lots of graphs of excess deaths here:

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

    New York City in the week ending April 11, 2020 had about 7.5 times as many deaths as would normally be expected for that week.

    That was really scary. After that, however, the excess deaths in NYC rapidly diminished and soon disappeared.

    Replies: @Wilkey, @AnotherDad, @Jus' Sayin'...

    Mr. Sailer:

    Something of which the public and policy makers need to be aware and which remains almost entirely unaddressed in accounts of the current pandemic is that there is a clear distinction between becoming infected with the SARS-COV-2 virus and having any symptoms of Covid-19, let alone a serious or fatal case. Infection with SARS-COV-2 is a necessary but not sufficient condition for exhibiting symptoms of Covid-19. As an extreme illustration, the local news outlets in my area are rife with accounts of how thousands of returning college students are testing positive for SARS-COV-2. No one has seen fit to remark that very few if any of these have developed even a mild case of Covid-19.

    This pattern goes beyond just being the result of elderly and other high risk groups being susceptible to the potential ravages of Covid-19. It suggests that a very large proportion of the population has a natural immunity to Covid-19. These persons seem to be immune to Covid-19 in the sense that they are susceptible to SARS-COV-2 infection but not any serious consequences from such an infection. Although I’ve not run across any analyses of this, it seems that the proportion of the population with this natural immunity may run higher than 70%. I suspect that such immunity to Covid-19 (not infection by SARS-COV-2) is due to some combination of genetics and prior exposure to other pathogens.

    This observation has obvious policy implications. Where herd immunity to Covid-19 needs to develop is among the 30% or less of the population susceptible to the disease. This will not be achieved by current public health policies. It is not clear how it can be achieved. We might well be better off, socially, economically, politically, and even from the public health perspective letting the current of SARS-COV-2 infections burn its natural way through the population. My back of the envelope calculations suggest that the end result will be a number of excess deaths not proportionally exceeding those associated with the 1968 Hong Kong Flu pandemic. The world got through that without any drastic policies based solely on public health concerns.

    BTW, I have some limited expertise in this area. I’m a Ph.D. with over a quarter of a century of off-again-on-again experience conducting epidemiological analyses in various fields. My epi modeling of the spread of AIDS back in 1990 generated estimates that proved an order of magnitude better, i.e. lower, than Dr. Fauci’s early and politically motivated projections. I ended the last fifteen years of my professional life working with the title of Epidemiologist in my state’s Department of Public Health.

    • Thanks: Mark G., HammerJack
    • Troll: Je Suis Omar Mateen
  130. @AnotherDad
    @Steve Sailer


    New York City in the week ending April 11, 2020 had about 7.5 times as many deaths as would normally be expected for that week.

    That was really scary. After that, however, the excess deaths in NYC rapidly diminished and soon disappeared.
     
    That's cause Cuomo--citing "discrimination"--pushed the virus into every nursing home--slaughtering NYC's elderly who were in the "just need a push" bucket.

    So now for this absolutely glaring incompetence, he's a Democratic party hero.

    Separate nations.

    Replies: @prosa123, @moshe

    As much as I loathe Cuomo, he may not be to blame for most of the nursing home deaths. The big surge in deaths began before he started transferring Covid patients to nursing homes, and likely resulted from employees bringing the virus into the facilities. Consider the recent outbreak at a wedding reception in Maine. Out of about 150 cases there were seven deaths, which happened because one of the attendees worked at a nursing home.

    The only effective way of protecting nursing home patients is what the owner of a Connecticut facility did. At the very beginning of the outbreak he moved several trailers onto the nursing home’s property and had some of his employees move into them. The employees agreed not to leave the property, even when off-duty, until things quieted down, as far as I know they followed this arrangement for about three months. While this unorthodox approach prevented any cases from spreading to the nursing home, it was extremely expensive, with each participating employee being paid $15,000 per month.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @prosa123


    Consider the recent outbreak at a wedding reception in Maine. Out of about 150 cases there were seven deaths, which happened because one of the attendees worked at a nursing home.
     
    The way the press spun this story seems highly deceptive: seven people died due to an outbreak at an event.................that they didn't even attend. Those seven deaths didn't necessarily have anything to do with the wedding reception. The nursing home employee might have gotten it anywhere.

    The press is highly invested in promoting the panic, in case you hadn't noticed. Look at all the stories about this or that obscure "anti-vaxxer" or "anti-masker" or "COVID-skeptic" who dies from COVID. What about all the other such people who are, and remain, just fine? And what about all the people who did everything that Anthony Fauci said to do on that particular day - shut themselves in their homes, wore masks while they drove alone in their cars, etc. - who still died. Why don't we hear similar news stories about them?
  131. @JohnnyWalker123
    This study claims the average number years of life lost due to COVID was 10.8 years. See below.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.08.20050559v2

    Background: COVID-19 was the leading cause of death in the United States over the three-month period March through May 2020. Another perspective is COVID-19s toll in terms of years of life lost. We calculated years of life lost for COVID-19 and other leading causes of death over those three months in the US. We also predicted years of life lost for COVID-19 and ischemic heart diseases (which includes heart attacks) for March through August 2020. Methods: Years of life lost are the sum of differences between life expectancy at age of death and age at death. Average years of life lost, years of life lost divided by the number of deaths, were also calculated. We used the COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning model to predict years of life lost from COVID-19 through the end of August 2020. Results: COVID-19 caused 12,035 more deaths than ischemic heart diseases during March through May 2020 but ischemic heart diseases years of life lost were 1.5% greater than those for COVID-19. Average years of life lost were 10.8 and 12.4 for COVID-19 and ischemic heart diseases, respectively. At the end of August, COVID-19 may overtake ischemic heart diseases as the leading cause of deaths and years of life lost in the US. Conclusion: Each COVID-19 death causes more than a decade of lost life in the US. We are reminded of a Danish Proverb that states Prediction is difficult, especially when dealing with the future. We suggest that while dying is bad, losing life is even worse.

     

    Here's another study. See below. 13 years lost for men, 11 years for women (after adjustments for long-term conditions).

    https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75

    Results: Using the standard WHO life tables, YLL per COVID-19 death was 14 for men and 12 for women. After adjustment for number and type of LTCs, the mean YLL was slightly lower, but remained high (13 and 11 years for men and women, respectively). The number and type of LTCs led to wide variability in the estimated YLL at a given age (e.g. at ≥80 years, YLL was >10 years for people with 0 LTCs, and <3 years for people with ≥6).

     

    Another study (see below) calculated that the median age of COVID death in the United States was 78. For people who are 78, life expectancy is roughly 10.1 years.

    I believe the median age of death in the United States is 82.4.

    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6928e1.htm

    Median decedent age was 78 years

     

    Here's another interesting study (see below). The study claims that if 1 million Americans died of COVID, the average loss of life expectancy would be 11.7 years for those who died. For those who lived through COVID, the loss of life life expectancy would be 0.2 years at age 80. For the entire country as a whole, average life expectancy would drop by 2.9 years in 2020.

    https://www.pnas.org/content/117/36/22035

    What would a hypothetical 1 million US deaths in the COVID-19 epidemic mean for mortality of individuals at the population level? Life expectancy for 2020 would drop by 2.9 y. Those dying would lose an average of 11.7 y of expected remaining life, while for the general population the loss of remaining life would be 0.2 y for elders (at age 80) and much less at younger ages. Mortality per person would be less than that of the Spanish flu, but closer to that of the opioid and HIV/AIDS epidemics, while far more concentrated in time. The standard valuation of averting 1.75 million deaths would be many trillions of dollars.

     

    The above study claimed that if America avoided 1.75 million deaths, $10.2-$17.5 trillion would be saved.

    Avoiding 1.75 million deaths or 20.5 trillion person years of life lost would be valued at $10.2 to $17.5 trillion.

     

    I haven't personally evaluated any of the above studies, but they're worth reading for sure. The studies seem to suggest 10-13 years of life expectancy are lost by those who die from COVID.

    Replies: @Mark G., @Jack D, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Hippopotamusdrome, @res, @AnotherDad, @Shaq, @Jus' Sayin'...

    Avoiding 1.75 million deaths or 20.5 trillion person years of life lost would be valued at $10.2 to $17.5 trillion.

    I’m backing up Shaq’s earlier comment. The vast majority of those dying of Covid-19 are net drains on the economy. They’re deadwood, pensioners sucking up resources that later generations will be paying for. Every such life lost is actually cost beneficial. BTW, I was born on the front end of the baby boom, in the late 1940s. I’m part of the deadwood, not some bitter Gen-Xer, Gen-Yer, or Millenial, just a realist who’s done a lot of real cost-benefit analyses over the course of my professional life.

  132. @Travis
    @Jack D

    The lockdowns did not work. The lockdowns here in NJ started on March 12. They started shutting down the schools here on March 12. The local Costco was sold out of rice on March 7th. I know because I though I was ahead of the curve when I went to prepare for the coming pandemic and took a picture of the barren shelves to show my wife. So People in NY and NJ were preparing for the coming pandemic and taking precautions already, washing hands, buying masks etc...

    Yet the peak in cases and deaths occurred weeks later. Deaths peaked during the third week in April in NJ. 4 weeks after the lockdowns, 4 weeks after all the schools were closed, 4 weeks after they closed the stock exchange, 4 weeks after the lockdowns indicates that they had little to no effect on the pandemic here in NJ

    As the lockdowns ended in places across the world we have never seen a rise in fatalities. The same patterns are observed in Europe and Asia. When the lockdowns ended there was no spike in fatalities. If you look at places like Arizona, Texas, Florida and Georgia, the reproduction number, Rt, is lower than during lockdown.

    The lockdowns were supposedly done to flatten the curve and spread out the deaths over a few months instead of having all the vulnerable die over a few weeks. Maybe a few more people would have died in April without the lockdowns. But it is well past time to end the lockdowns and open the schools. Sad that the lockdowns continue and the schools remain mostly closed here in NJ. Sweden kept their schools open and not a single child died from Covid of over 1.8 million kids.

    Replies: @Jack D, @utu

    People in NY and NJ were preparing for the coming pandemic and taking precautions already, washing hands, buying masks etc…

    On the one hand, the masks disappeared from the shelves almost immediately but OTOH, people were not actually wearing them. It was mostly speculators grabbing them up for resale.

    I ordered a few N95s (not nearly enough in retrospect) in mid-February and they were already starting to disappear from the shelves.

    But remember this?

    On Feb. 29, the Surgeon General told us to “STOP BUYING MASKS! They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus”. But, OTOH, they have the magical property that they ARE effective for health care providers so we should save them for them. (The photo adds a special twist).

    The way that this works is that the virus checks if you have a medical or nursing license in your wallet. If you do, then it will not penetrate your mask. But if you don’t, then the mask is NOT effective for you. Anyway, health care providers under go very special training on how to put a mask on their face, which you don’t have. Did you know that 3 years out of the 4 year med school curriculum are devoted ONLY to mask fitting?

    • Thanks: utu
    • LOL: Jus' Sayin'...
    • Replies: @utu
    @Jack D

    Masks are imperfect and wearing a mask among people who do not wear them will only delay the time of being infected. So in this sense the SG was correct but obviously he was I would say criminally irresponsible. Masks have a more imported purpose than saving your sorry ass from being infected. Masks purpose is to save everybody's ass from being infected. They are effective when mask wearing is a concerted group effort and more than, say about 80% people wear them. Then the epidemic can be stopped to the point of R0-->0.

    https://www.unz.com/announcement/31000-words-missing-from-the-atlantic-and-the-new-york-times-sunday-magazine/#comment-4166108

    Why did we get such a bad advice from Surgeon General and CDC? Was it just incompetence? Trying to stop people depleting the masks supply for medical workers? Or was it a result of old policy of CDC to not stress masks role in stopping epidemics of flu which would undercut the mass flu vaccination program which Big Pharma supports?


    https://www.unz.com/announcement/31000-words-missing-from-the-atlantic-and-the-new-york-times-sunday-magazine/#comment-4164501

    My theory is that historically in the West unlike in the East Asia we depend more on vaccines and it is in the interest of Big Pharma to have high demand for vaccines, so CDC does not promote mask wearing which if worn by 80% of society could make vaccines for flu like diseases practically unnecessary. Even this May in the middle of the epidemic CDC published a misleading article about the ineffectiveness of masks (to cover their asses I presume). The article was not about R0 reduction which is the most important reason for the universal mask wearing but about chances of being infected while wearing mask among people who do not wear masks. (*).

    You are right that the decision was catastrophic. It suffices to look at Taiwan which was producing 19 millions of masks every day and supplying them to its citizens. The end results: only 499 cases and 7 deaths in population larger than NY state.

     

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Jack D, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Mr. Anon, @anon

    , @Jonathan Mason
    @Jack D

    Anyway, medical personnel get their masks from medical suppliers, not from Walmart or eBay. Even prison medical departments are not allowed to buy from retail suppliers. Something to do with accreditation.

    It is the similar with toilet paper. Businesses, institutions, and government offices do not get their toilet paper from the same supply chains as retail buyers.

    If they had wanted to divert all masks to health care providers, the intervention should have been much higher up the supply chain.

    The fact of the matter is that the people in charge in the CDC or the White House are really no smarter than the people in equivalent government jobs in places like St. Lucia (has super-low Covid-19, but has endemic dengue fever), or Bermuda, which also has super low numbers. Even lowly Jamaica has its "Resilient Corridors" that are being kept safe for tourists and its infection rate is nowhere as bad as in the US.

    Several countries in the region have had elections this year (Trinidad, Guyana, Jamaica, Dominican Republic, Suriname, St. Kitts and Nevis) and yet in none of them have political parties been divided on how to deal with Covid-19, or has masks or no masks been an election issue, and all of them seem to be doing better than the US.

    When do you ever hear good news coming out of the US where some county, city, or state has done something remarkable or innovative to combat Covid-19?

    Replies: @nebulafox

  133. @Ganderson
    @syonredux

    While Stacy’s Mom is a fun song, and quite clever, and Mrs. Rod Stewart is VA VA VOOM!, there are many other FOW songs more worthy of consideration Among my favorites: Red Dragon Tattoo, No Better Place, Valley Winter Song, Acela... the list goes on. Schlesinger will be missed, at least in my house.
    Oh, and the opening of Stacy’s Mom is an homage to The Cars.

    And, didn’t Tom Seaver die of a degenerative disease?

    Replies: @syonredux, @ScarletNumber, @Steve Sailer

    Oh, and the opening of Stacy’s Mom is an homage to The Cars.

    Speaking of The Cars, if you ever wanted proof that even a legitimately hideous guy can land a mega-babe, check out Ric Ocasek and Paulina Porizkova:


    • Replies: @Feryl
    @syonredux

    Ocasek might've had Marfan's syndrome or something. Very gaunt, tall(ish), and oddly proportioned features. He also looked like a middle aged lesbian in the 80's, a good 20 years before that became common among some aging white men. Too much veganism and not enough physical activity? Regardless, he got to the major leagues of music for a reason. Talent. BTW, Ben Orr was much better looking and he was an asset once music videos took off in the 80's (similarly, Rush got away with the really ugly young version of Geddy Lee because Alex and Neil were good looking by the low standards of the 70's and early 8o's.

  134. @anon
    I am honestly perplexed how this not only flummoxed the occasionally nutty US, but the whole world, including the Red Chinese and Russians. The responses globally have been quite varried, but no one has been able to just ignore it.

    If you go back and look at traditional infectious diseases that were conquered in the US, the number of deaths prior to eradication programs was surprisingly low. Polio as an example.


    In the United States, the 1952 polio epidemic became the worst outbreak in the nation's history. Of the nearly 58,000 cases reported that year, 3,145 died and 21,269 were left with mild to disabling paralysis.[146] Intensive care medicine has its origin in the fight against polio.[147] Most hospitals in the 1950s had limited access to iron lungs for patients unable to breathe without mechanical assistance. Respiratory centers designed to assist the most severe polio patients, first established in 1952 at the Blegdam Hospital of Copenhagen by Danish anesthesiologist Bjørn Ibsen, were the precursors of modern intensive care units (ICU). (A year later, Ibsen would establish the world's first dedicated ICU.)[148]
     
    Of note: Not that many deaths 3,000. Not that many cases of severely disabled children. Note, out of 21,269 cases of mild to severe paralysis, how many were both severe and children? Maybe 10,000?

    The innovative medical interventions created a dread of hospital hallways lined with iron lungs.

    A child dying is tragic, a ward of kids in iron lungs is horrifying.

    Go through the other diseases on the list, and most of them didn't cause a large number of deaths.

    "In the US there are about 30 cases [of tetnus] per year, almost all of which have not been vaccinated."

    Was this a situation where a bacterial infection was well known, a preventive intervention discovered, so it was decided to make universal inoculations mandatory absent any formal cost/benefit analysis. Most doctors in the US have never seen a case.


    In 1884, Arthur Nicolaier isolated the strychnine-like toxin of tetanus from free-living, anaerobic soil bacteria. The etiology of the disease was further elucidated in 1884 by Antonio Carle and Giorgio Rattone, two pathologists of the University of Turin, who demonstrated the transmissibility of tetanus for the first time. They produced tetanus in rabbits by injecting pus from a person with fatal tetanus into their sciatic nerves
     
    Per the CDC, prior to routine vaccination, there were about 500 cases/year. Out of which maybe 100 would die?

    The point being that we will put a lot of effort into preventing a relatively small number of deaths historically. So even if US Covid deaths are overstated 10x, the resulting number (20,000) is still large compared to Polio or tetanus fatalities.

    Replies: @Jus' Sayin'...

    So even if US Covid deaths are overstated 10x, the resulting number (20,000) is still large compared to Polio or tetanus fatalities.

    But 200,000 or 300,000 excess deaths in the USA is in line -proportional to population size – with what the USA experienced during the Hong Kong Flu pandemic in 1968. I was a college student at the time and recall nothing like the drastic public health measures now in place. Everyone back then took the excess deaths in stride.

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    @Jus' Sayin'...

    I was too young to remember much about that time (one event that year I do remember was the assassination of Robert Kennedy) but then and the following year were nothing like now. No social distancing at Woodstock, for God's sake, to judge from the photos and film from that event. There has been an air of the unreal about this year.

  135. anon[622] • Disclaimer says:
    @Travis
    The first person on the list was Chris Trousdale , a gay man. Wonder if he had HIV
    I never heard of any of these people. To describe them as celebrities is dishonest.

    By now it is quite obvious that CV has a very low fatality rate, closer to .2% than 1%. The vast majority of those infected never develop any symptoms. the high numbers of asymptomatics is how we know that pre-existing immunity is real. How else could we explain so many people brushing off infection with the “novel” coronavirus For most people, it’s just another coronavirus...no big deal.

    Data from the prisons confirms that 95% of those with CV will have zero symptoms.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-prisons-testing-in-idUSKCN2270RX

    Replies: @anon

    Thanks for the information on prisoners. I am surprised this its from April!

    I’m sure the incidence of problems sin ce then has been. favorable, since we have not heard any more about it.

    Total institutions, which include prisons, boarding schools/college, and cruise ships should have been a good source of semi controlled natural experiments. But alas, nada.

  136. @ScarletNumber
    @Mr. Anon

    This says more about you than the people on the list, as several are legitimately famous.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Achmed E. Newman

    This says more about you than the people on the list, as several are legitimately famous.

    Yes, I had never heard of Kamala (wrestler), Jack Lotz (wrestling referee), Nashom Wooden (Drag Queen), or Kenneth Church (Jockey).

    I guess I’m just a philistine.

    • LOL: Mike Tre
    • Troll: ScarletNumber
  137. @Redneck farmer
    When my county has a Covid death, "nursing home resident" is a common description of the deceased.

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe

    Redneck, for a short period the Buffalo News featured victims of C-19 who were in their nineties. They never would have mentioned their passing if it was cardiac arrest. Best though, and I know I have mentioned this before, was the headline…”She would have lived to be 105 but Covid-19 claims the life of a 99 year old.” Top that.

  138. @Achmed E. Newman
    Steve, it's only occasionally, but you come across as celebrity obsessed and overly concerned (again) about another in an every-decade-or-so bad flu season.

    Who cares about these people any more than an average productive hard-working guy? There are a few engineers on the list, yet there are millions of engineers not on the list. Just because people are famous, in this case slightly famous, doesn't make them better than plenty of others who do the same thing just as well who are not. You have a real problem with this, maybe from being around Hollywood or something.

    Secondly, excess deaths may or may not mean FROM COVID either, as there were millions of people kept away from hospitals because to the Panic-fest, who may have lived longer having been checked out earlier, etc. I say, wait until the end of 2020 or even 2021 to see if there was truly a significant number of people taken who wouldn't have died within months or a year with no COVID.

    Replies: @Redman

    Oh come on. It’s ok to talk about celebrities if you’re not just lionizing them. And better yet, if you’re taking them down a peg. Or mocking them in SNL fashion.

    It’s atavistic among men. Women worship them, and men mock them because of the woman worship. Steve’s pretty much always treated celebrity with a healthy dose of skepticism and irony.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Redman

    Yeah, Redman, Mr. Sailer does't lionize them, but he sure acts like they are the cat's meow. Haha, I didn't even mean to make a joke of sorts there, but they not the same. He does mock celebrities when they say the stupid stuff that most of us on here detest and make fun of too, but that goes the same for NY Times/Atlantic/Twitter writers, and politicians too.

    I think Mr. Sailer worships them a little bit. Otherwise, why single them out, such as in this post? Famous people and their (supposed) COVID deaths. What does that matter vs. regular people and their (supposed) COVID deaths? If this table is just there to analyze statistics on, OK, but it's not a big sample, in that case.

    I've read this blog a good long time. First of all, the actor/actresses - who cares? They are just doing a fairly easy job, and most of them are good looking. Movies are a hobby of our host, and I respect his specific interests, though occasionally making fun of them, just in jest. However, there's no reason to look up to these people.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Steve Sailer

  139. @Ganderson
    @syonredux

    While Stacy’s Mom is a fun song, and quite clever, and Mrs. Rod Stewart is VA VA VOOM!, there are many other FOW songs more worthy of consideration Among my favorites: Red Dragon Tattoo, No Better Place, Valley Winter Song, Acela... the list goes on. Schlesinger will be missed, at least in my house.
    Oh, and the opening of Stacy’s Mom is an homage to The Cars.

    And, didn’t Tom Seaver die of a degenerative disease?

    Replies: @syonredux, @ScarletNumber, @Steve Sailer

    the opening of Stacy’s Mom is an homage to The Cars

    And later in the video is an homage to Fast Times at Ridgemont High, which uses The Cars’ Moving in Stereo.

  140. @Achmed E. Newman
    @moshe


    The covid death count is not just suspect it is blatantly untrue and, at this point, just a power grab by those already in power. They are not letting (what seemed to the masses as) a crisis go to waste.
     
    I could not have summed this up any better than this, Moshe.

    The incentives to log deaths as FROM COVID are many, insurance money, and political pressure. Oh, and so "our" healthcare workers can be lauded as HEROES.

    Leaving the COVID-19-fatality gunshot and motorcycle wreck victims aside, here's the gist of how it really works, from Peak Stupidity's post "6% dying from Kung Flu alone - Vindication, bitchez!":

    Now let me discuss the co-morbidity thing for a bit. It's not like the COVID-19 virus couldn't be a big factor in many of those other 94%. It's just that, for lots of them, the older patients especially, who ARE lots of them, combined problems can go wrong quickly.

    If you've dealt with an older family member or friend in the hospital for serious illness (not the same as with young people hurt in a car wreck), you may know how this goes. This one condition requires this treatment, but we can't do that until he gets his XYZ readings up. For that, we will prescribe drug ABC, which does have a worsening effect on this OTHER condition. Additionally, the same drug, that he really needs to take, has a side effect causing this OTHER problem, which hopefully will not be bad enough to stop us from doing that original treatment we were going to do ... It gets pretty sad and/or scary, as things as up in the fashion of a puzzle. Solving the puzzle is the way to get through it all, until something else crops up next month. I hope all you readers can somehow avoid this, but ... as opposed to what, right?

    After all that, for some months, if the patient doesn't make it home, then the cause of death must be logged. What was it, exactly? Note that 2.6 average co-conditions. But, we need a code or two, and "old age" is not one of them.
     
    Worth causing an early death and taking away a few GDP-years of the American economy, oh, and introducing additional Totalitarianism to boot? You decide.

    Replies: @moshe

    Thanks Achmed (lol),

    The truth is that at least 60% of the Covid Deaths either were deaths caused by other things and labeled as Covid or deaths caused by The Panic of March and April when nursing homes and hospitals were absent of “heroes” and family members were barred from ensuring that their loved ones received proper treatment. This was true all over the world – for example in Spain a nursing home was found in May to contain 50 odd dead bodies lying their beds.

    And then of course there are the deaths by medicine that you alluded to. Not only was the obviously dangerous ventilator rush a muderous decision that killed many, especially in New York, but iatrogenic deaths of all kinds resulted from the fear instilled in the public regarding Covid.

    To be clear, I believe that the primary fault lies with The People, most of whom in America and Europe longed for a life and death crisis to jar them out of their first world ennui.

    The authorities around the world, both political and medical, originally tried to caom the panicked masses but when tue press started labelling them as murderers for doing so they all got with the program.

    Only THEN did the governments of the world recognize this awesome opportunity to grab immense power and ran with it.

    You’ll recall that even Steve Sailer called for some civil rights to be suspended, such as keeping one’s medical records private. And if HE was irrationally panicked enough to turn to mommy government for authoritarian solace one can only imagine how the rest of the country felt.

  141. @ES
    I'd never heard of Nashom Wooden the drag queen. And now we've lost him. Reading his Wikipedia article, it seems he was a homosexual (doesn't actually state that, but I assume he was) who performed at gay bars in drag. Seems kinda old-fashioned. I see an analogy between drag queens to transgendered, and blackface to Blacks. By the way, if we now capitalize "Blacks", do we also capitalize "Blackface"? After all, we capitalize "Blackfeet", but then that's a horse of a different color.

    Replies: @Jonathan Silber

    I’d never heard of Nashom Wooden the drag queen. And now we’ve lost him

    What is the formula for calculating quality-adjusted lost Story Hours?

    • LOL: kaganovitch
  142. Here’s a notional bet for you commentators:

    In one year from today will or won’t we still be reading iSteve features about COVID-19?

    All filled with charts, graphs, links, excerpts from MD’s, etc. about this thing.

    So all of our speculation is premature. Epidemiology is hard. Arriving at scientific, valid conclusions from a jumble of early data is like figuring out who will win a major war by reading the first week’s battle reports.

    Bonus bet question: A year from now, will or won’t the major questions and answers about the WuFlu be definitively known? (I.e., lockdowns good/bad, vaccine effective/not, masks helpful/theater, border controls useful/political, COVID-19 US death toll >200,000 properly measured yes/no, etc.)

    We’ve been reading tons of this materiel for over six months and how much more do we really know now? How much more certain are we now of answers given.

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @Muggles

    We won't learn much. The main problem is that our response is not a scientific question. You can't say what we should do by simply having the best data on IFR, etc. It is fundamentally a political question about values, and no one is having this discussion. Instead people are arguing about the facts and trying to make them fit their unstated values. In this situation of unspoken combat, it will be very difficult to agree on facts, not to mention appropriate future responses.

  143. @Travis
    @Jack D

    The lockdowns did not work. The lockdowns here in NJ started on March 12. They started shutting down the schools here on March 12. The local Costco was sold out of rice on March 7th. I know because I though I was ahead of the curve when I went to prepare for the coming pandemic and took a picture of the barren shelves to show my wife. So People in NY and NJ were preparing for the coming pandemic and taking precautions already, washing hands, buying masks etc...

    Yet the peak in cases and deaths occurred weeks later. Deaths peaked during the third week in April in NJ. 4 weeks after the lockdowns, 4 weeks after all the schools were closed, 4 weeks after they closed the stock exchange, 4 weeks after the lockdowns indicates that they had little to no effect on the pandemic here in NJ

    As the lockdowns ended in places across the world we have never seen a rise in fatalities. The same patterns are observed in Europe and Asia. When the lockdowns ended there was no spike in fatalities. If you look at places like Arizona, Texas, Florida and Georgia, the reproduction number, Rt, is lower than during lockdown.

    The lockdowns were supposedly done to flatten the curve and spread out the deaths over a few months instead of having all the vulnerable die over a few weeks. Maybe a few more people would have died in April without the lockdowns. But it is well past time to end the lockdowns and open the schools. Sad that the lockdowns continue and the schools remain mostly closed here in NJ. Sweden kept their schools open and not a single child died from Covid of over 1.8 million kids.

    Replies: @Jack D, @utu

    ” The lockdowns here in NJ started on March 12. ” – NJ went to near-lockdown mode on Sat March 21
    https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/03/new-jersey-lockdown-rules-what-residents-need-to-know-about-stay-at-home-order.html

    The peak of NJ daily deaths occurred around April 21 which is about 4 weeks after the start of the lockdown.
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-jersey/

    3 week delay would be expected so there is an extra week that would need to be explained. Clearly infections were occurring after the lockdown for many reasons. The lockdown was not strict. Many people were going to work and doing shopping and most importantly they were not wearing masks and the Chasidic Jews were having weddings and whatnot.

    As the lockdowns ended in places across the world we have never seen a rise in fatalities. The same patterns are observed in Europe and Asia. – Different places have different explanations. People wear masks in NY so infections do not grow. Then mortality dropped because treatment improved possibly by factor of 5. Then old people are being taken care of better to shield them: more awareness. In Czech Republic fatalities in the second wave are growing pretty strong.

    “Sweden kept their schools open and not a single child died from Covid of over 1.8 million kids.” – Not all of them. Only for those under 16 schools were closed. Closing schools was not about kids dying but about spreading the virus to the vulnerable. Not surprisingly Sweden ended up having 10 times higher per capita death rate than its neighboring Nordic countries (when population density is taken into account).

    • Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter
    @utu


    Sweden kept their schools open and not a single child died from Covid of over 1.8 million kids.” – Not all of them. Only for those under 16 schools were closed. Closing schools was not about kids dying but about spreading the virus to the vulnerable. Not surprisingly Sweden ended up having 10 times higher per capita death rate than its neighboring Nordic countries (when population density is taken into account).
     
    In case you are not simply ignoring what others have already told you, here is a credible list of reasons that Sweden's death rate was higher, and they do not relate to the lack of lock downs.

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3674138
    , @Travis
    @utu

    all schools were shuttered in New Jersey by order of the Governor on March 16. All casinos and restaurants were shuttered March 16 also.

    Rutgers, the State University, was shut down in March 10. Princeton had closed the day before.
    by March 16 most of the schools were already shut down. My kids school was closed on March 12, as was the school my wife taught at. Train passenger volume was down 50% the week of March 12. New Jersey was in full panic mode by March 9th, which is when the schools started closing.

    Yet despite the lockdowns which were in full force by March 16 , Coronavirus cases and deaths would not peak for another 31 days....which indicates the lockdowns failed. We now know the incubation period is typically 6 days. The people hospitalized in the middle of April did not catch the disease until 2 weeks after the lockdowns began.

    To suggest the lockdowns began on March 21 and not March 16 is misleading. By March 16 most everyone we knew was working at home, the gyms , restuarants, museums , schools were all closed. People began social distancing by March first, 2 weeks before the "official lockdowns". The panic was clearly visible across the NY metro region, and most of the bigger stores sold out of many goods.

    The NY Post , among other media outlets, covered the panic buying. https://nypost.com/2020/03/01/panicked-new-york-shoppers-stock-up-at-costco-amid-coronavirus-fears/
    Panicked purchasers — many of them wearing face masks — jammed into the warehouse, eagerly grabbing cases of bottled water in case they’re forced to quarantine at home as the virus spreads in the US. “The coronavirus has them panicked … they think the world is coming to an end,” the store’s manager, who would only give his name as Jerry, told The Post on March 1st.

    One reason the CDC opposed school closures and lockdowns and quarantines is because they have been shown not to work well. Sad to see many here fell for the media inspired panic.

    Replies: @eD

  144. @Paco Wové
    How many of these "notable people" were only "notable" because they died of COVID? Note that Lynika Strozier (RIP) only gained a Wikipedia entry after her death.

    Replies: @Sollipsist, @Steve Sailer

    This is my main takeaway from the “celebrity” fixation. The media was eager to create the impression of unusual levels of mortality, and the number of obituaries that were promoted to front page or news feed status went up significantly.

    They tried to be somewhat subtle about it; not everybody who died of CoVid-19 got posthumously promoted (you can only stretch justifications for distinction so far) and not everybody who was featured had a Covid-19 connection.

    It was nicely done to make guys like me look paranoid if we tried too hard to make a big deal about it 😀

  145. @unit472
    There is a sayinng that 'quantity is a form of quality' so we might want to consider the impact of Covid on the 2020 election. For example Michael Bloomberg is spending a lot of money to pay the fines of negro and hispanic ex cons so they can register to vote in November. His groups is looking for criminals owing $1500 or less ( and white ex cons need not apply) and he as enough money to pay for 20 thousand votes.

    The problem is how many nice AME church going ladies who vote Democrat or overweight Latino women have been lost to covid. According to APM, a leftist data crunching organization, Covid might be the best thing going for Donald Trump.


    APMresearchlab.org
    /covid/deaths by race

    Negroes are dying at a rate of 97.9 per hundred thousand, Latinos at 64.7 per hundred thousand and whites at 46.6 per hundred thousand. At a more granular level we find that places like Philadelphia, Miami, Chicago etc have very high rates of covid deaths. This may make Bloombergs effort to 'buy' Ron De Santis' victory margin in Florida or close Trumps margin in Pennsylvania harder. As Bloomberg has admitted he is unable to change voters minds with Biden TV ads so he has decided to just buy reliably Democrat voters but, as APM points out he has already lost 20,800 Negroes and 10,900 Latinos, 700 Amer Indians voters had they died at the same rate of covid as whites.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    I’d like to share your optimism, Unit-472, but cheating yields a benefit 1 or 2 orders of magnitude higher than the Kung Flu disparities can.

  146. @Alden
    @Jack D

    Don’t forget that public transit is a massive affirmative action program for blacks and now immigrants.

    Evening shifts end at 10 or 11 pm. They should be able to get home by 12 when service ends . The only people commuting at 4am are food and postal workers who start at 5am. Postal workers have cars.

    Perhaps the employers of the food workers could pay them enough to afford cars. Or arrange some sort of van pick up for them. Many of those 5 am food workers work in hospital and college cafeterias and the big chains like Denny’s , Burger King McDonald’s and IHOP Starbuck’s that do a big breakfast business. Surely some kind of employee van or carpool can be arranged

    Therefore, the taxpayers are subsidizing the low wages of the food workers by providing public transit so they can get to work at 5 am.

    Cutting off public transit at 11/30 or midnight lowers the crime rate. Fewer victims waiting for subways and buses.

    Replies: @Johann Ricke

    Don’t forget that public transit is a massive affirmative action program for blacks

    Blacks are definitely very well-represented in the MTA. By the time the layoffs are done, it might be majority black.

  147. @ScarletNumber
    @Mr. Anon

    This says more about you than the people on the list, as several are legitimately famous.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Achmed E. Newman

    Mr. Number, seriously, why do you take it so badly when people tell you they don’t know or care about the people from People magazine or people or ANYTHING else on TV? Do you work in that business?

    Wait for it…

    [MORE]

    • Troll:

    • Replies: @ScarletNumber
    @Achmed E. Newman

    I don't take it badly, but bragging about ignorance is something black people do.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

  148. @utu
    @Travis

    " The lockdowns here in NJ started on March 12. " - NJ went to near-lockdown mode on Sat March 21
    https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/03/new-jersey-lockdown-rules-what-residents-need-to-know-about-stay-at-home-order.html

    The peak of NJ daily deaths occurred around April 21 which is about 4 weeks after the start of the lockdown.
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-jersey/

    3 week delay would be expected so there is an extra week that would need to be explained. Clearly infections were occurring after the lockdown for many reasons. The lockdown was not strict. Many people were going to work and doing shopping and most importantly they were not wearing masks and the Chasidic Jews were having weddings and whatnot.

    As the lockdowns ended in places across the world we have never seen a rise in fatalities. The same patterns are observed in Europe and Asia. - Different places have different explanations. People wear masks in NY so infections do not grow. Then mortality dropped because treatment improved possibly by factor of 5. Then old people are being taken care of better to shield them: more awareness. In Czech Republic fatalities in the second wave are growing pretty strong.

    "Sweden kept their schools open and not a single child died from Covid of over 1.8 million kids." - Not all of them. Only for those under 16 schools were closed. Closing schools was not about kids dying but about spreading the virus to the vulnerable. Not surprisingly Sweden ended up having 10 times higher per capita death rate than its neighboring Nordic countries (when population density is taken into account).

    Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter, @Travis

    Sweden kept their schools open and not a single child died from Covid of over 1.8 million kids.” – Not all of them. Only for those under 16 schools were closed. Closing schools was not about kids dying but about spreading the virus to the vulnerable. Not surprisingly Sweden ended up having 10 times higher per capita death rate than its neighboring Nordic countries (when population density is taken into account).

    In case you are not simply ignoring what others have already told you, here is a credible list of reasons that Sweden’s death rate was higher, and they do not relate to the lack of lock downs.

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3674138

    • Thanks: Mark G.
  149. The only one of these deaths I had previously noted and was shocked by was John Horton Conway, a fellow Brit and well-known to geeks because anyone who owned a first generation personal computer used it to program Conway’s Game of Life. I don’t understand his work on group theory which proved him to be a mathematician of genius.

    The median age of death is higher than the mean. This is the reverse of the normal pattern in which the median is the midpoint between the youngest age at death and the oldest and the mean is the point at which equal number of people die at a younger or older age. The reason, presumably, is that these people were mostly past the mean age of death from all causes and thus marginally less likely to die of the major killers like cancer and more from minor diseases or sheer bad luck. Or is there another explanation?

  150. @Redman
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Oh come on. It’s ok to talk about celebrities if you’re not just lionizing them. And better yet, if you’re taking them down a peg. Or mocking them in SNL fashion.

    It’s atavistic among men. Women worship them, and men mock them because of the woman worship. Steve’s pretty much always treated celebrity with a healthy dose of skepticism and irony.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    Yeah, Redman, Mr. Sailer does’t lionize them, but he sure acts like they are the cat’s meow. Haha, I didn’t even mean to make a joke of sorts there, but they not the same. He does mock celebrities when they say the stupid stuff that most of us on here detest and make fun of too, but that goes the same for NY Times/Atlantic/Twitter writers, and politicians too.

    I think Mr. Sailer worships them a little bit. Otherwise, why single them out, such as in this post? Famous people and their (supposed) COVID deaths. What does that matter vs. regular people and their (supposed) COVID deaths? If this table is just there to analyze statistics on, OK, but it’s not a big sample, in that case.

    I’ve read this blog a good long time. First of all, the actor/actresses – who cares? They are just doing a fairly easy job, and most of them are good looking. Movies are a hobby of our host, and I respect his specific interests, though occasionally making fun of them, just in jest. However, there’s no reason to look up to these people.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Achmed E. Newman

    It's a list made up for a different purpose than I used it for. Anybody can check it for honesty: Is Tom Seaver on it? Yes. Is Herman Cain on it? Yes. etc etc.

    I take a couple of lessons away from this list:

    - COVID isn't killing a lot of people. I only heard of 15 names on this list.

    - COVID is mostly killing the old and/or decrepit.

    Replies: @utu

    , @Steve Sailer
    @Achmed E. Newman

    It's a list made up for a different purpose than I used it for. Anybody can check it for honesty: Is Tom Seaver on it? Yes. Is Herman Cain on it? Yes. etc etc.

    I take a couple of lessons away from this list:

    - COVID isn't killing a lot of people. I only heard of 15 names on this list.

    - COVID is mostly killing the old and/or decrepit.

  151. @Jack D
    @Travis


    People in NY and NJ were preparing for the coming pandemic and taking precautions already, washing hands, buying masks etc…
     
    On the one hand, the masks disappeared from the shelves almost immediately but OTOH, people were not actually wearing them. It was mostly speculators grabbing them up for resale.

    I ordered a few N95s (not nearly enough in retrospect) in mid-February and they were already starting to disappear from the shelves.

    But remember this?

    https://twitter.com/surgeon_general/status/1233725785283932160?lang=en

    On Feb. 29, the Surgeon General told us to "STOP BUYING MASKS! They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus". But, OTOH, they have the magical property that they ARE effective for health care providers so we should save them for them. (The photo adds a special twist).

    The way that this works is that the virus checks if you have a medical or nursing license in your wallet. If you do, then it will not penetrate your mask. But if you don't, then the mask is NOT effective for you. Anyway, health care providers under go very special training on how to put a mask on their face, which you don't have. Did you know that 3 years out of the 4 year med school curriculum are devoted ONLY to mask fitting?

    Replies: @utu, @Jonathan Mason

    Masks are imperfect and wearing a mask among people who do not wear them will only delay the time of being infected. So in this sense the SG was correct but obviously he was I would say criminally irresponsible. Masks have a more imported purpose than saving your sorry ass from being infected. Masks purpose is to save everybody’s ass from being infected. They are effective when mask wearing is a concerted group effort and more than, say about 80% people wear them. Then the epidemic can be stopped to the point of R0–>0.

    https://www.unz.com/announcement/31000-words-missing-from-the-atlantic-and-the-new-york-times-sunday-magazine/#comment-4166108

    Why did we get such a bad advice from Surgeon General and CDC? Was it just incompetence? Trying to stop people depleting the masks supply for medical workers? Or was it a result of old policy of CDC to not stress masks role in stopping epidemics of flu which would undercut the mass flu vaccination program which Big Pharma supports?

    https://www.unz.com/announcement/31000-words-missing-from-the-atlantic-and-the-new-york-times-sunday-magazine/#comment-4164501

    My theory is that historically in the West unlike in the East Asia we depend more on vaccines and it is in the interest of Big Pharma to have high demand for vaccines, so CDC does not promote mask wearing which if worn by 80% of society could make vaccines for flu like diseases practically unnecessary. Even this May in the middle of the epidemic CDC published a misleading article about the ineffectiveness of masks (to cover their asses I presume). The article was not about R0 reduction which is the most important reason for the universal mask wearing but about chances of being infected while wearing mask among people who do not wear masks. (*).

    You are right that the decision was catastrophic. It suffices to look at Taiwan which was producing 19 millions of masks every day and supplying them to its citizens. The end results: only 499 cases and 7 deaths in population larger than NY state.

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @utu

    It's simple myopia. Within health care in the west, masks had come to be thought of as protective of the wearer rather than others, despite the fact that they were originally introduced in ORs to prevent surgical infections of the patient.

    If you survey the literature on masks, you see lots of attempts to verify their effectiveness for preventing the wearer's infection, but not as much for the wearer's infectivity. The evidence for protecting the wearer is weak, and is derived from hospitals rather than communities. That is why the CDC's rules were as they were.

    If you could go back and trace all the CDC's comments, you would find that when they began to embrace masks, it was first a recognition of the difference between different possible uses of the mask.

    Just going by the literature, their efficacy is still in question, and reportedly Swedes are not wearing them as much as other peoples.

    Hopefully, some epidemiologist will come up with an ingenious way of analyzing their effect rather than just pointing to Asian countries and saying "See! See!"

    Replies: @utu

    , @Jack D
    @utu


    So in this sense the SG was correct but obviously he was I would say criminally irresponsible.
     
    Allegedly he has 200,000 deaths on his hands which puts him in jr. Pol Pot territory or at least on par with Baby Kim. If we still had a serious society he would be publicly executed but of course we don't. This might give future bureaucrats 2nd thoughts about lying to the people in order to help the elites. Of course this guy is black (no doubt the absolutely best doctor they could find for this critical job) and so there's no way they are going to hold him responsible for anything. Everyone knows that blacks have no agency.

    Replies: @nebulafox

    , @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @utu

    Face diapers cause disease, faggot. Face diapers are deeply irresponsible and must be outlawed, bearing STIFF penalties:

    $1000 fine if caught diapering publicly

    One year jail for second public diaper

    Five years prison on third violation

    Death penalty on fourth diapering

    They are disgusting, bacteria-infested sacs.

    , @Mr. Anon
    @utu


    They are effective when mask wearing is a concerted group effort and more than, say about 80% people wear them. Then the epidemic can be stopped to the point of R0–>0.
     
    The number of infections started to rise in July - far above the numbers in March/April - and lots of people were wearing masks by then. Lots of places had mask mandates. The use of masks seems to be uncorrelated with the spread of the virus. Just as degree of lockdown is uncorrelated with the overall death-rate (in other words - lockdowns didn't work).

    There is no evidence that cloth masks provide any significant protection. You can go to the CDC's website and find a handful of poorly designed and executed studies purporting to show that masks work and studies (equally poor) purporting to show that masks don't work. It kind of begs the question - what the Hell does the CDC do all day? Shouldn't they have figured this out by now? Why haven't there been large, controlled studies on, for example, the efficacy of masks in preventing the spread of seasonal flu? Fauci and the rest of them are always invoking "Science!!!!". Do they actually do any? The best mask study I've seen, conducted in Sweden about 30 years ago, indicates that masks worn by surgeons have no effect on the incidence of post-operative infections. Think about that - surgical masks may not actually even be necessary for surgeons (as far as the patients are concerned - they may help the surgeon).

    Replies: @utu, @Jack D

    , @anon
    @utu

    Doesn't matter effectiveness or purpose of mask.
    Like distancing, not needed.

  152. @utu
    @Jack D

    Masks are imperfect and wearing a mask among people who do not wear them will only delay the time of being infected. So in this sense the SG was correct but obviously he was I would say criminally irresponsible. Masks have a more imported purpose than saving your sorry ass from being infected. Masks purpose is to save everybody's ass from being infected. They are effective when mask wearing is a concerted group effort and more than, say about 80% people wear them. Then the epidemic can be stopped to the point of R0-->0.

    https://www.unz.com/announcement/31000-words-missing-from-the-atlantic-and-the-new-york-times-sunday-magazine/#comment-4166108

    Why did we get such a bad advice from Surgeon General and CDC? Was it just incompetence? Trying to stop people depleting the masks supply for medical workers? Or was it a result of old policy of CDC to not stress masks role in stopping epidemics of flu which would undercut the mass flu vaccination program which Big Pharma supports?


    https://www.unz.com/announcement/31000-words-missing-from-the-atlantic-and-the-new-york-times-sunday-magazine/#comment-4164501

    My theory is that historically in the West unlike in the East Asia we depend more on vaccines and it is in the interest of Big Pharma to have high demand for vaccines, so CDC does not promote mask wearing which if worn by 80% of society could make vaccines for flu like diseases practically unnecessary. Even this May in the middle of the epidemic CDC published a misleading article about the ineffectiveness of masks (to cover their asses I presume). The article was not about R0 reduction which is the most important reason for the universal mask wearing but about chances of being infected while wearing mask among people who do not wear masks. (*).

    You are right that the decision was catastrophic. It suffices to look at Taiwan which was producing 19 millions of masks every day and supplying them to its citizens. The end results: only 499 cases and 7 deaths in population larger than NY state.

     

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Jack D, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Mr. Anon, @anon

    It’s simple myopia. Within health care in the west, masks had come to be thought of as protective of the wearer rather than others, despite the fact that they were originally introduced in ORs to prevent surgical infections of the patient.

    If you survey the literature on masks, you see lots of attempts to verify their effectiveness for preventing the wearer’s infection, but not as much for the wearer’s infectivity. The evidence for protecting the wearer is weak, and is derived from hospitals rather than communities. That is why the CDC’s rules were as they were.

    If you could go back and trace all the CDC’s comments, you would find that when they began to embrace masks, it was first a recognition of the difference between different possible uses of the mask.

    Just going by the literature, their efficacy is still in question, and reportedly Swedes are not wearing them as much as other peoples.

    Hopefully, some epidemiologist will come up with an ingenious way of analyzing their effect rather than just pointing to Asian countries and saying “See! See!”

    • Thanks: utu
    • Replies: @utu
    @Chrisnonymous

    "the wearer’s infection, but not as much for the wearer’s infectivity" - Obviously the reduction of probabilities is not symmetric. The latter case is more important and masks are more effective. If only the infected were wearing the mask the effect would be greater than if only the non-infected were wearing the masks. But determination of probabilities while interesting is really academic because the objective of universal mask wearing is to lower R0 and one shroud concentrate on studies including simulations that measure R0 reduction when say 50%, 70% or 90% of population wears masks.

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.13553.pdf

    "If you could go back and trace all the CDC’s comments, you would find that when they began to embrace masks, it was first a recognition of the difference between different possible uses of the mask." - OK, but there is a reason they began with a wrong paradigm and took some time to shift to the right one is because they never thought of masks as a mean of controlling the epidemics and R0 reduction on the whole population scale unlike the Asian countries. My hypothesis is that this was so because their paradigm of fighting flu and flu like epidemics was vaccination based.

    "Hopefully, some epidemiologist will come up with an ingenious way of analyzing their effect rather than just pointing to Asian countries and saying “See! See!”" - I am sure more evidence will be accumulated but this is not physics that you necessarily need to have explanations on a 'micro' level. Comparative epidemiological studies and yes, including the Asian countries will do.

    Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter

  153. @Stick
    How old is Soros?

    Replies: @Jim Don Bob

    Soros is 90.

  154. @Anonymous
    Had Nick Cordero stayed home in bed instead of going to the hospital he would be alive today

    This is why when your narcissist wife tries to get you to the hospital so she can get in the news, ignore her and stay home

    Same with Kate garraways hubbie

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    He did not even have CV when he checked into the hospital in February, but he must have had some serious illness which required hospitalization.

  155. @Muggles
    Here's a notional bet for you commentators:

    In one year from today will or won't we still be reading iSteve features about COVID-19?

    All filled with charts, graphs, links, excerpts from MD's, etc. about this thing.

    So all of our speculation is premature. Epidemiology is hard. Arriving at scientific, valid conclusions from a jumble of early data is like figuring out who will win a major war by reading the first week's battle reports.

    Bonus bet question: A year from now, will or won't the major questions and answers about the WuFlu be definitively known? (I.e., lockdowns good/bad, vaccine effective/not, masks helpful/theater, border controls useful/political, COVID-19 US death toll >200,000 properly measured yes/no, etc.)

    We've been reading tons of this materiel for over six months and how much more do we really know now? How much more certain are we now of answers given.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous

    We won’t learn much. The main problem is that our response is not a scientific question. You can’t say what we should do by simply having the best data on IFR, etc. It is fundamentally a political question about values, and no one is having this discussion. Instead people are arguing about the facts and trying to make them fit their unstated values. In this situation of unspoken combat, it will be very difficult to agree on facts, not to mention appropriate future responses.

  156. The Democrats are intent on blowing up federalism and blowing up the fiscal future of the nation.

    Just got through reading Michael Anton’s latest book The Stakes and he goes into great detail about what the Left has in store for us. An excellent book by a very smart guy.

    Steve gets credited for inventing the phrase The Megaphone, but does not make the (rather short) index. ;-(

  157. @Jack D
    @Federalist

    Yes. The life expectancy of a 73 year old male is 12.4 years so according to these studies if someone who is 73 dies of Covid then we have experienced 12.4 life years lost (because the studies have no way of knowing or weighting the comorbidities). But there was no way that Dempsey was going to live another 12.4 years.

    And if you go by quality of life years lost it's even lower - his life was effectively over already. To the extent that Xi and Cuomo cleared out all of our nursing home memory loss wards they did everyone a big favor, even the families of those affected. People say they are sad when grandma (who no longer recognizes them when they visit and who wears diapers) dies but secretly they are relieved. Of course they would never do anything to speed up the process but when the Lord takes them He is doing them a favor. He is even doing grandma a favor. The only ones that benefit from those places are the nursing home operators who are making big $ sucking off of Medicaid.

    Replies: @Jim Don Bob

    There was one conspiracy theory I read that said Xi engineered and released the Kung Flue to kill off China’s elderly.

  158. @utu
    @Jack D

    Masks are imperfect and wearing a mask among people who do not wear them will only delay the time of being infected. So in this sense the SG was correct but obviously he was I would say criminally irresponsible. Masks have a more imported purpose than saving your sorry ass from being infected. Masks purpose is to save everybody's ass from being infected. They are effective when mask wearing is a concerted group effort and more than, say about 80% people wear them. Then the epidemic can be stopped to the point of R0-->0.

    https://www.unz.com/announcement/31000-words-missing-from-the-atlantic-and-the-new-york-times-sunday-magazine/#comment-4166108

    Why did we get such a bad advice from Surgeon General and CDC? Was it just incompetence? Trying to stop people depleting the masks supply for medical workers? Or was it a result of old policy of CDC to not stress masks role in stopping epidemics of flu which would undercut the mass flu vaccination program which Big Pharma supports?


    https://www.unz.com/announcement/31000-words-missing-from-the-atlantic-and-the-new-york-times-sunday-magazine/#comment-4164501

    My theory is that historically in the West unlike in the East Asia we depend more on vaccines and it is in the interest of Big Pharma to have high demand for vaccines, so CDC does not promote mask wearing which if worn by 80% of society could make vaccines for flu like diseases practically unnecessary. Even this May in the middle of the epidemic CDC published a misleading article about the ineffectiveness of masks (to cover their asses I presume). The article was not about R0 reduction which is the most important reason for the universal mask wearing but about chances of being infected while wearing mask among people who do not wear masks. (*).

    You are right that the decision was catastrophic. It suffices to look at Taiwan which was producing 19 millions of masks every day and supplying them to its citizens. The end results: only 499 cases and 7 deaths in population larger than NY state.

     

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Jack D, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Mr. Anon, @anon

    So in this sense the SG was correct but obviously he was I would say criminally irresponsible.

    Allegedly he has 200,000 deaths on his hands which puts him in jr. Pol Pot territory or at least on par with Baby Kim. If we still had a serious society he would be publicly executed but of course we don’t. This might give future bureaucrats 2nd thoughts about lying to the people in order to help the elites. Of course this guy is black (no doubt the absolutely best doctor they could find for this critical job) and so there’s no way they are going to hold him responsible for anything. Everyone knows that blacks have no agency.

    • LOL: Johann Ricke
    • Replies: @nebulafox
    @Jack D

    I agree wholly on the sentiment: lack of consequences for mandarinate incompetence is as much responsible for America's current situation as anything. But the comparison... eh, no, not even a reduced version of that. The Khmer Rouge deliberately killed a third of their own population, and would have killed more if the Vietnamese didn't invade.

    Older Khmers still visibly deal with the scars of the experience.

  159. The news of Muhammad Sirajul Islam’s untimely death has sent my family into utter despair. He left us too soon.

    In lieu of a votive candle the wife found an old Bic and briefly lit it. (She also found an ancient birthday cake candle in the kitchen junk drawer but we’re saving that for future Juneteenth celebrations.)

    Reminded me of Frank O’Hara again: “oh Lana Turner we love you get up”

    Oh, Muhammad Sirajul Islam we love you — get up! We have no idea who the heck you were or how you ended up dying in Queens, but it sure would’ve been grand to meet you at a picnic in the park, knock back a few brews together and eat crappy hot dogs. So here’s a friendly punch on your arm, big guy. We hardly — well, never — knew ye.

    • LOL: Achmed E. Newman
  160. @raven lunatic
    looking at casualty figures is only a small piece of the problem. the real issue with corona seems to be the way it can deal permanent, lasting damage to the organs of young, healthy people. im afraid we're only going to understand the full impact of this pandemic after some time has passed

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Anonymous, @Libre

    Raven Lunatic: “Over 20 comments since 2015.”

    Shill.

  161. @moshe
    I would like to note that I wrote the following as a comment here ON MARCH 15, at the very height of the covid panic, and I have never wavered from this view.

    In a rational world I would receive public aclaim for having seen through the whole sham from the very start, and my thoughts and advice would be sought over those (almost everyone) who fell for The Panic.

    But we're not living in that world now are we?

    Assuming a recognizable future, a Pinker-type book will have a footnote about the hilarious Great Coronavirus Panic of 2020 that will sound too exaggerated to take seriously.

     

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Travis

    OK, so you’ve got me beat by 4 days – “The Kung Flu – SHTF or Infotainment Panic-Fest?”. Still, please keep me in mind when People magazine calls you for an interview.

  162. @Jack D
    @Travis


    People in NY and NJ were preparing for the coming pandemic and taking precautions already, washing hands, buying masks etc…
     
    On the one hand, the masks disappeared from the shelves almost immediately but OTOH, people were not actually wearing them. It was mostly speculators grabbing them up for resale.

    I ordered a few N95s (not nearly enough in retrospect) in mid-February and they were already starting to disappear from the shelves.

    But remember this?

    https://twitter.com/surgeon_general/status/1233725785283932160?lang=en

    On Feb. 29, the Surgeon General told us to "STOP BUYING MASKS! They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus". But, OTOH, they have the magical property that they ARE effective for health care providers so we should save them for them. (The photo adds a special twist).

    The way that this works is that the virus checks if you have a medical or nursing license in your wallet. If you do, then it will not penetrate your mask. But if you don't, then the mask is NOT effective for you. Anyway, health care providers under go very special training on how to put a mask on their face, which you don't have. Did you know that 3 years out of the 4 year med school curriculum are devoted ONLY to mask fitting?

    Replies: @utu, @Jonathan Mason

    Anyway, medical personnel get their masks from medical suppliers, not from Walmart or eBay. Even prison medical departments are not allowed to buy from retail suppliers. Something to do with accreditation.

    It is the similar with toilet paper. Businesses, institutions, and government offices do not get their toilet paper from the same supply chains as retail buyers.

    If they had wanted to divert all masks to health care providers, the intervention should have been much higher up the supply chain.

    The fact of the matter is that the people in charge in the CDC or the White House are really no smarter than the people in equivalent government jobs in places like St. Lucia (has super-low Covid-19, but has endemic dengue fever), or Bermuda, which also has super low numbers. Even lowly Jamaica has its “Resilient Corridors” that are being kept safe for tourists and its infection rate is nowhere as bad as in the US.

    Several countries in the region have had elections this year (Trinidad, Guyana, Jamaica, Dominican Republic, Suriname, St. Kitts and Nevis) and yet in none of them have political parties been divided on how to deal with Covid-19, or has masks or no masks been an election issue, and all of them seem to be doing better than the US.

    When do you ever hear good news coming out of the US where some county, city, or state has done something remarkable or innovative to combat Covid-19?

    • Replies: @nebulafox
    @Jonathan Mason

    >When do you ever hear good news coming out of the US where some county, city, or state has done something remarkable or innovative to combat Covid-19?

    I'd highly recommend Tanner Greer's post on how the US is no longer a "building culture".

    Replies: @res

  163. @utu
    @Travis

    " The lockdowns here in NJ started on March 12. " - NJ went to near-lockdown mode on Sat March 21
    https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/03/new-jersey-lockdown-rules-what-residents-need-to-know-about-stay-at-home-order.html

    The peak of NJ daily deaths occurred around April 21 which is about 4 weeks after the start of the lockdown.
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-jersey/

    3 week delay would be expected so there is an extra week that would need to be explained. Clearly infections were occurring after the lockdown for many reasons. The lockdown was not strict. Many people were going to work and doing shopping and most importantly they were not wearing masks and the Chasidic Jews were having weddings and whatnot.

    As the lockdowns ended in places across the world we have never seen a rise in fatalities. The same patterns are observed in Europe and Asia. - Different places have different explanations. People wear masks in NY so infections do not grow. Then mortality dropped because treatment improved possibly by factor of 5. Then old people are being taken care of better to shield them: more awareness. In Czech Republic fatalities in the second wave are growing pretty strong.

    "Sweden kept their schools open and not a single child died from Covid of over 1.8 million kids." - Not all of them. Only for those under 16 schools were closed. Closing schools was not about kids dying but about spreading the virus to the vulnerable. Not surprisingly Sweden ended up having 10 times higher per capita death rate than its neighboring Nordic countries (when population density is taken into account).

    Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter, @Travis

    all schools were shuttered in New Jersey by order of the Governor on March 16. All casinos and restaurants were shuttered March 16 also.

    Rutgers, the State University, was shut down in March 10. Princeton had closed the day before.
    by March 16 most of the schools were already shut down. My kids school was closed on March 12, as was the school my wife taught at. Train passenger volume was down 50% the week of March 12. New Jersey was in full panic mode by March 9th, which is when the schools started closing.

    Yet despite the lockdowns which were in full force by March 16 , Coronavirus cases and deaths would not peak for another 31 days….which indicates the lockdowns failed. We now know the incubation period is typically 6 days. The people hospitalized in the middle of April did not catch the disease until 2 weeks after the lockdowns began.

    To suggest the lockdowns began on March 21 and not March 16 is misleading. By March 16 most everyone we knew was working at home, the gyms , restuarants, museums , schools were all closed. People began social distancing by March first, 2 weeks before the “official lockdowns”. The panic was clearly visible across the NY metro region, and most of the bigger stores sold out of many goods.

    The NY Post , among other media outlets, covered the panic buying. https://nypost.com/2020/03/01/panicked-new-york-shoppers-stock-up-at-costco-amid-coronavirus-fears/
    Panicked purchasers — many of them wearing face masks — jammed into the warehouse, eagerly grabbing cases of bottled water in case they’re forced to quarantine at home as the virus spreads in the US. “The coronavirus has them panicked … they think the world is coming to an end,” the store’s manager, who would only give his name as Jerry, told The Post on March 1st.

    One reason the CDC opposed school closures and lockdowns and quarantines is because they have been shown not to work well. Sad to see many here fell for the media inspired panic.

    • Replies: @eD
    @Travis

    When to date the lockdown is a question of historical interest. And I keep seeing commentators maintaining that they started on March 20th in the Northeast. This seems to be coming mostly from pro-lockdown commentators for some reason.

    In Philadelphia, I had to take a class in a commercial building on March 20th and 21st. I called during the previous week to see if the class would actually take place, since everything was closed. They weren't sure, but it did take place, but I remember having trouble getting into the building on March 20th because it was closed, and everything was closed and the center of the city was deserted, more so than normal on a weekend. So obviously the lockdown in Philly was in place by March 20th. I paid a visit to New York on March 12-13 and the city was close to "normal", though the panic had obviously set in and my visit was complicated by stuff being closed.

  164. @Mr. Anon
    @raven lunatic


    looking at casualty figures is only a small piece of the problem. the real issue with corona seems to be the way it can deal permanent, lasting damage to the organs of young, healthy people. im afraid we’re only going to understand the full impact of this pandemic after some time has passed
     
    What's also bad is how it can cause Kawasawi syndrome in children. You remember that?

    Except it doesn't. It turns out that claim was wrong.

    Maybe the oft-repeated one about permanent organ damage is too.

    This is the first pandemic in history that the authorities wanted to be worse than it is.

    Replies: @Thirdtwin, @raven lunatic

    I’m hoping he has some flexibility with Covid panic management after the election, but I’m not sure what he realistically can do. Any ideas? The Covid Hoax was a masterstroke of evil manipulation which seems to have permanently changed the culture.

  165. @Anonymous Jew
    @Mr. Anon

    I’m long past the point where I’m willing to support any standard, old school Progressive that is opposed to invade the world invite the world.

    A conservative approach to various public policies is just dandy and all, but I’d take 1990’s Sweden over a Brazil run by ‘conservatives’. Any day and twice on Sunday.

    On topic. From a policy standpoint COVID-19 simply doesn’t kill enough people to justify a lockdown. That’s really all there is to it.

    Replies: @Libre

    Really? Sweden which is turning into afroarabia?

    And no shiznit, anyone with a brain knew that from the start. They could’ve said nothing and nobody would’ve noticed anything

  166. @raven lunatic
    looking at casualty figures is only a small piece of the problem. the real issue with corona seems to be the way it can deal permanent, lasting damage to the organs of young, healthy people. im afraid we're only going to understand the full impact of this pandemic after some time has passed

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Anonymous, @Libre

    Yea in 1 out of 1000 cases it gives bronchitis. Shattup clown

  167. @Jack D
    @utu


    So in this sense the SG was correct but obviously he was I would say criminally irresponsible.
     
    Allegedly he has 200,000 deaths on his hands which puts him in jr. Pol Pot territory or at least on par with Baby Kim. If we still had a serious society he would be publicly executed but of course we don't. This might give future bureaucrats 2nd thoughts about lying to the people in order to help the elites. Of course this guy is black (no doubt the absolutely best doctor they could find for this critical job) and so there's no way they are going to hold him responsible for anything. Everyone knows that blacks have no agency.

    Replies: @nebulafox

    I agree wholly on the sentiment: lack of consequences for mandarinate incompetence is as much responsible for America’s current situation as anything. But the comparison… eh, no, not even a reduced version of that. The Khmer Rouge deliberately killed a third of their own population, and would have killed more if the Vietnamese didn’t invade.

    Older Khmers still visibly deal with the scars of the experience.

  168. @Jonathan Mason
    @Jack D

    Anyway, medical personnel get their masks from medical suppliers, not from Walmart or eBay. Even prison medical departments are not allowed to buy from retail suppliers. Something to do with accreditation.

    It is the similar with toilet paper. Businesses, institutions, and government offices do not get their toilet paper from the same supply chains as retail buyers.

    If they had wanted to divert all masks to health care providers, the intervention should have been much higher up the supply chain.

    The fact of the matter is that the people in charge in the CDC or the White House are really no smarter than the people in equivalent government jobs in places like St. Lucia (has super-low Covid-19, but has endemic dengue fever), or Bermuda, which also has super low numbers. Even lowly Jamaica has its "Resilient Corridors" that are being kept safe for tourists and its infection rate is nowhere as bad as in the US.

    Several countries in the region have had elections this year (Trinidad, Guyana, Jamaica, Dominican Republic, Suriname, St. Kitts and Nevis) and yet in none of them have political parties been divided on how to deal with Covid-19, or has masks or no masks been an election issue, and all of them seem to be doing better than the US.

    When do you ever hear good news coming out of the US where some county, city, or state has done something remarkable or innovative to combat Covid-19?

    Replies: @nebulafox

    >When do you ever hear good news coming out of the US where some county, city, or state has done something remarkable or innovative to combat Covid-19?

    I’d highly recommend Tanner Greer’s post on how the US is no longer a “building culture”.

    • Replies: @res
    @nebulafox


    I’d highly recommend Tanner Greer’s post on how the US is no longer a “building culture”.
     
    This?
    https://scholars-stage.blogspot.com/2020/06/on-cultures-that-build.html

    Looks interesting. Thanks.
  169. Can all the big guns, including Tucker, MM, AC, SS, Scott Adams and others on the (truly) alternative right, start meming a national No F’n Mask day? Where everyone just says, I’m done.

    Its retarded that this has not already happened. Tucker could drop the date every night until doomsday and off they come…and never go back. Literally like a union walk out.

    • Replies: @Inquiring Mind
    @OscarWildeLoveChild

    Could we hold off on No Fine Mask Day until after the election?

    Until then, let's keep wearing those masks and tell the Guy In The Basement, "What d'ya mean you would order a National Mask Mandate, you senile old coot? We are already wearing our f'ne masks! C'mon, man, do you think your National Mask Mandate will have any effect on your voters holding 'block parties'? What are you going to do, send the police? Federal Marshals like in Portland?"

  170. @utu
    @Jack D

    Masks are imperfect and wearing a mask among people who do not wear them will only delay the time of being infected. So in this sense the SG was correct but obviously he was I would say criminally irresponsible. Masks have a more imported purpose than saving your sorry ass from being infected. Masks purpose is to save everybody's ass from being infected. They are effective when mask wearing is a concerted group effort and more than, say about 80% people wear them. Then the epidemic can be stopped to the point of R0-->0.

    https://www.unz.com/announcement/31000-words-missing-from-the-atlantic-and-the-new-york-times-sunday-magazine/#comment-4166108

    Why did we get such a bad advice from Surgeon General and CDC? Was it just incompetence? Trying to stop people depleting the masks supply for medical workers? Or was it a result of old policy of CDC to not stress masks role in stopping epidemics of flu which would undercut the mass flu vaccination program which Big Pharma supports?


    https://www.unz.com/announcement/31000-words-missing-from-the-atlantic-and-the-new-york-times-sunday-magazine/#comment-4164501

    My theory is that historically in the West unlike in the East Asia we depend more on vaccines and it is in the interest of Big Pharma to have high demand for vaccines, so CDC does not promote mask wearing which if worn by 80% of society could make vaccines for flu like diseases practically unnecessary. Even this May in the middle of the epidemic CDC published a misleading article about the ineffectiveness of masks (to cover their asses I presume). The article was not about R0 reduction which is the most important reason for the universal mask wearing but about chances of being infected while wearing mask among people who do not wear masks. (*).

    You are right that the decision was catastrophic. It suffices to look at Taiwan which was producing 19 millions of masks every day and supplying them to its citizens. The end results: only 499 cases and 7 deaths in population larger than NY state.

     

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Jack D, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Mr. Anon, @anon

    Face diapers cause disease, faggot. Face diapers are deeply irresponsible and must be outlawed, bearing STIFF penalties:

    $1000 fine if caught diapering publicly

    One year jail for second public diaper

    Five years prison on third violation

    Death penalty on fourth diapering

    They are disgusting, bacteria-infested sacs.

  171. @kaganovitch
    There appears to be a disproportionate toll on serial killer-Americans and their accomplices. In our deranged times , we should doubtless expect a grass roots SKLM movement.

    Replies: @Wilkey, @Feryl

    The Houston homosexual serial killings by Dean Corll/David Brooks/Elmer Henley of the early 1970’s is still quite possibly the most appalling crime series in “modern” US history (dozens of kids were horribly tortured). I think it’s been memory holed because for one thing, it was just…Gay. For another thing, the local police were terribly negligent, dismissing report after report of missing male youths as typical 70’s runaways (even though many of the victims were known to be reliable and studious and not the type to run away and get into trouble).

    • Replies: @Tina Trent
    @Feryl

    In the case of Scott Erskine, it can be said that Covid did the job the California Department of Corrections refused to do.

  172. @syonredux
    @Ganderson


    Oh, and the opening of Stacy’s Mom is an homage to The Cars.
     
    Speaking of The Cars, if you ever wanted proof that even a legitimately hideous guy can land a mega-babe, check out Ric Ocasek and Paulina Porizkova:


    https://www.coloradomusic.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Ric-Ocasek.jpg

    https://i.pinimg.com/736x/8e/d0/eb/8ed0eb9ea8cae942c931ff8661b819c8.jpg


    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/d8/98/e7/d898e7e5bf3867675717375858cc6343.jpg

    Replies: @Feryl

    Ocasek might’ve had Marfan’s syndrome or something. Very gaunt, tall(ish), and oddly proportioned features. He also looked like a middle aged lesbian in the 80’s, a good 20 years before that became common among some aging white men. Too much veganism and not enough physical activity? Regardless, he got to the major leagues of music for a reason. Talent. BTW, Ben Orr was much better looking and he was an asset once music videos took off in the 80’s (similarly, Rush got away with the really ugly young version of Geddy Lee because Alex and Neil were good looking by the low standards of the 70’s and early 8o’s.

  173. @moshe
    I would like to note that I wrote the following as a comment here ON MARCH 15, at the very height of the covid panic, and I have never wavered from this view.

    In a rational world I would receive public aclaim for having seen through the whole sham from the very start, and my thoughts and advice would be sought over those (almost everyone) who fell for The Panic.

    But we're not living in that world now are we?

    Assuming a recognizable future, a Pinker-type book will have a footnote about the hilarious Great Coronavirus Panic of 2020 that will sound too exaggerated to take seriously.

     

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Travis

    So true. The media started this panic to derail the economy, and it worked….but it also resulted in massive civil unrest as people went insane due to the lockdowns, the closing of schools, sports, clubs, bars, churches etc…

    Yet the panic continues, despite knowing that this virus hardly makes people sick. Most infected people are asymptomatic. The fatality rate is now being estimated at .2% and is actually lower than the Flu fatality rate for those under the age of 50.

  174. Steve,
    Seriously. What the fuck is the deal with moderation… sheesh.

  175. @utu
    @Jack D

    Masks are imperfect and wearing a mask among people who do not wear them will only delay the time of being infected. So in this sense the SG was correct but obviously he was I would say criminally irresponsible. Masks have a more imported purpose than saving your sorry ass from being infected. Masks purpose is to save everybody's ass from being infected. They are effective when mask wearing is a concerted group effort and more than, say about 80% people wear them. Then the epidemic can be stopped to the point of R0-->0.

    https://www.unz.com/announcement/31000-words-missing-from-the-atlantic-and-the-new-york-times-sunday-magazine/#comment-4166108

    Why did we get such a bad advice from Surgeon General and CDC? Was it just incompetence? Trying to stop people depleting the masks supply for medical workers? Or was it a result of old policy of CDC to not stress masks role in stopping epidemics of flu which would undercut the mass flu vaccination program which Big Pharma supports?


    https://www.unz.com/announcement/31000-words-missing-from-the-atlantic-and-the-new-york-times-sunday-magazine/#comment-4164501

    My theory is that historically in the West unlike in the East Asia we depend more on vaccines and it is in the interest of Big Pharma to have high demand for vaccines, so CDC does not promote mask wearing which if worn by 80% of society could make vaccines for flu like diseases practically unnecessary. Even this May in the middle of the epidemic CDC published a misleading article about the ineffectiveness of masks (to cover their asses I presume). The article was not about R0 reduction which is the most important reason for the universal mask wearing but about chances of being infected while wearing mask among people who do not wear masks. (*).

    You are right that the decision was catastrophic. It suffices to look at Taiwan which was producing 19 millions of masks every day and supplying them to its citizens. The end results: only 499 cases and 7 deaths in population larger than NY state.

     

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Jack D, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Mr. Anon, @anon

    They are effective when mask wearing is a concerted group effort and more than, say about 80% people wear them. Then the epidemic can be stopped to the point of R0–>0.

    The number of infections started to rise in July – far above the numbers in March/April – and lots of people were wearing masks by then. Lots of places had mask mandates. The use of masks seems to be uncorrelated with the spread of the virus. Just as degree of lockdown is uncorrelated with the overall death-rate (in other words – lockdowns didn’t work).

    There is no evidence that cloth masks provide any significant protection. You can go to the CDC’s website and find a handful of poorly designed and executed studies purporting to show that masks work and studies (equally poor) purporting to show that masks don’t work. It kind of begs the question – what the Hell does the CDC do all day? Shouldn’t they have figured this out by now? Why haven’t there been large, controlled studies on, for example, the efficacy of masks in preventing the spread of seasonal flu? Fauci and the rest of them are always invoking “Science!!!!”. Do they actually do any? The best mask study I’ve seen, conducted in Sweden about 30 years ago, indicates that masks worn by surgeons have no effect on the incidence of post-operative infections. Think about that – surgical masks may not actually even be necessary for surgeons (as far as the patients are concerned – they may help the surgeon).

    • Replies: @utu
    @Mr. Anon

    "The number of infections started to rise in July – far above the numbers in March/April – and lots of people were wearing masks by then. " - I would like to see studies on the data comparing state by state with some estimates of mask wearing prevalence for state. The latter might bee hard to get. A study similar to this one:


    Association of country-wide coronavirus mortality with demographics, testing, lockdowns, and public wearing of masks
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342198360_Association_of_country-wide_coronavirus_mortality_with_demographics_testing_lockdowns_and_public_wearing_of_masks_Update_June_15_2020
     
    that looked at coronavirus deaths across 198 countries and this study:

    Countries with early adoption of face masks showed modest COVID-19 infection rates
    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200624082657.htm
     
    There is no evidence that cloth masks provide any significant protection. - This is not true. Look at this study.

    Assessment of Fabric Masks as Alternatives to Standard Surgical Masks in Terms of Particle Filtration Efficiency
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20069567v2.full.pdf
     
    "You can go to the CDC’s website and find a handful of poorly designed and executed studies purporting to show that masks work and studies (equally poor) purporting to show that masks don’t work. It kind of begs the question – what the Hell does the CDC do all day? Shouldn’t they have figured this out by now? Why haven’t there been large, controlled studies on, for example, the efficacy of masks in preventing the spread of seasonal flu?". Yes, this annoying and exasperating. Apart from incompetence of CDC I stick to my hypothesis that CDC is vested in Big Pharma interests of fighting epidemics with vaccines so they never put much thought into using masks as means of stopping flu like epidemics. See this paper:

    Universal Masking is Urgent in the COVID-19 Pandemic: SEIR and Agent Based Models, Empirical Validation, Policy Recommendations
    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.13553.pdf


    which was published in April 20, 2020 while CDC on May 20, 2020 was still endorsing this anti-mask meta study paper:

    “Nonpharmaceutical Measures for Pandemic Influenza in Nonhealthcare Settings—Personal Protective and Environmental Measures”
    https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article


    which IMO was prepared in a rush to cover their ass for the early public 'mask are not needed' pronouncements. And then finally they saw the light in September:

    CDC director Robert Redfield said face masks may be more effective than a vaccine in preventing individual coronavirus infections
    https://www.businessinsider.com/cdc-director-masks-better-than-vaccines-at-stopping-coronavirus-2020-9
     
    In an efficient authoritarian system all top officials of the CDC would end up in prison.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Peripatetic Commenter

    , @Jack D
    @Mr. Anon


    Just as degree of lockdown is uncorrelated with the overall death-rate (in other words – lockdowns didn’t work).
     
    Lockdowns and mask wearing have worked in China (they are basically down to zero - 7 cases/day for a billion+ people) because they still have a serious government while we live in Clown World where even the laws against looting and arson are no longer enforced, let along mask wearing and congregating. A lot of Americans approach the lockdown and mask wearing the way some blacks approach submitting to arrest - "I'll comply with the law if I feel like it". And we have the results to show for it.

    Now it's great that Americans have freedom, even freedom to violate the law and that we don't have massive concentration camps out in the desert where we are forced to assemble cheap electronics for the export market. But freedom isn't free - if we err on the side of freedom, there's a price to be paid for those errors.

    Replies: @Johann Ricke, @Mr. Anon, @Jonathan Mason

  176. @Achmed E. Newman
    @Redman

    Yeah, Redman, Mr. Sailer does't lionize them, but he sure acts like they are the cat's meow. Haha, I didn't even mean to make a joke of sorts there, but they not the same. He does mock celebrities when they say the stupid stuff that most of us on here detest and make fun of too, but that goes the same for NY Times/Atlantic/Twitter writers, and politicians too.

    I think Mr. Sailer worships them a little bit. Otherwise, why single them out, such as in this post? Famous people and their (supposed) COVID deaths. What does that matter vs. regular people and their (supposed) COVID deaths? If this table is just there to analyze statistics on, OK, but it's not a big sample, in that case.

    I've read this blog a good long time. First of all, the actor/actresses - who cares? They are just doing a fairly easy job, and most of them are good looking. Movies are a hobby of our host, and I respect his specific interests, though occasionally making fun of them, just in jest. However, there's no reason to look up to these people.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Steve Sailer

    It’s a list made up for a different purpose than I used it for. Anybody can check it for honesty: Is Tom Seaver on it? Yes. Is Herman Cain on it? Yes. etc etc.

    I take a couple of lessons away from this list:

    – COVID isn’t killing a lot of people. I only heard of 15 names on this list.

    – COVID is mostly killing the old and/or decrepit.

    • Thanks: Achmed E. Newman
    • Replies: @utu
    @Steve Sailer

    "COVID isn’t killing a lot of people. I only heard of 15 names on this list" - 540,000 people die of cancer per year which is 360,00 in last 8 months. How many people from among the notable people who died of cancer so far this year you know? Is it about 15*360/200=27?

  177. @Achmed E. Newman
    @Redman

    Yeah, Redman, Mr. Sailer does't lionize them, but he sure acts like they are the cat's meow. Haha, I didn't even mean to make a joke of sorts there, but they not the same. He does mock celebrities when they say the stupid stuff that most of us on here detest and make fun of too, but that goes the same for NY Times/Atlantic/Twitter writers, and politicians too.

    I think Mr. Sailer worships them a little bit. Otherwise, why single them out, such as in this post? Famous people and their (supposed) COVID deaths. What does that matter vs. regular people and their (supposed) COVID deaths? If this table is just there to analyze statistics on, OK, but it's not a big sample, in that case.

    I've read this blog a good long time. First of all, the actor/actresses - who cares? They are just doing a fairly easy job, and most of them are good looking. Movies are a hobby of our host, and I respect his specific interests, though occasionally making fun of them, just in jest. However, there's no reason to look up to these people.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Steve Sailer

    It’s a list made up for a different purpose than I used it for. Anybody can check it for honesty: Is Tom Seaver on it? Yes. Is Herman Cain on it? Yes. etc etc.

    I take a couple of lessons away from this list:

    – COVID isn’t killing a lot of people. I only heard of 15 names on this list.

    – COVID is mostly killing the old and/or decrepit.

  178. @Steve Sailer
    @Achmed E. Newman

    It's a list made up for a different purpose than I used it for. Anybody can check it for honesty: Is Tom Seaver on it? Yes. Is Herman Cain on it? Yes. etc etc.

    I take a couple of lessons away from this list:

    - COVID isn't killing a lot of people. I only heard of 15 names on this list.

    - COVID is mostly killing the old and/or decrepit.

    Replies: @utu

    “COVID isn’t killing a lot of people. I only heard of 15 names on this list” – 540,000 people die of cancer per year which is 360,00 in last 8 months. How many people from among the notable people who died of cancer so far this year you know? Is it about 15*360/200=27?

  179. @AnotherDad
    @JohnnyWalker123


    I haven’t personally evaluated any of the above studies, but they’re worth reading for sure. The studies seem to suggest 10-13 years of life expectancy are lost by those who die from COVID.
     
    A guy who believes that should certainly believe Epstein killed himself.

    Replies: @moshe

    Welcome to the side of sanity.

  180. @Anon
    As long as Bob Dylan is still alive, we haven't killed enough musicians yet.

    Replies: @Gary in Gramercy

    “As long as Bob Dylan is still alive, we haven’t killed enough musicians yet.”

    Philistine.

  181. @AnotherDad
    @Steve Sailer


    New York City in the week ending April 11, 2020 had about 7.5 times as many deaths as would normally be expected for that week.

    That was really scary. After that, however, the excess deaths in NYC rapidly diminished and soon disappeared.
     
    That's cause Cuomo--citing "discrimination"--pushed the virus into every nursing home--slaughtering NYC's elderly who were in the "just need a push" bucket.

    So now for this absolutely glaring incompetence, he's a Democratic party hero.

    Separate nations.

    Replies: @prosa123, @moshe

    One of us!
    One of us!
    One of us!!!

    You’re exactly right. Or almost exactly. The Panic is what caused all those deaths – more iatrogenic deaths of people who never should have gone to the hospital, should not have been ventilated and in both hospitals and nursing homes a situation tantamount to murder where thousands of old people around the world were abandoned to die because their carers feared approaching anyone and there was no family in the nursing homes and hospitals to hold them to account.

    That’s why we mask.

    The powers that be are covering their asses for killing so many people in order to satisfy the public’s demand that they Do Something so they have to continue pretending that covid is serious.

    Furthermore, they now get to claim that those early deaths weren’t due to their incompetence as experts and leaders but to a serious disease that now has almost no more deaths because we are masking. That’s a hilariously ridiculous claim. 20% of New York City residents caught the rona DURING THE LOCKDOWN, but now we’re safe because some people occasionally mask up.

  182. @Chrisnonymous
    @utu

    It's simple myopia. Within health care in the west, masks had come to be thought of as protective of the wearer rather than others, despite the fact that they were originally introduced in ORs to prevent surgical infections of the patient.

    If you survey the literature on masks, you see lots of attempts to verify their effectiveness for preventing the wearer's infection, but not as much for the wearer's infectivity. The evidence for protecting the wearer is weak, and is derived from hospitals rather than communities. That is why the CDC's rules were as they were.

    If you could go back and trace all the CDC's comments, you would find that when they began to embrace masks, it was first a recognition of the difference between different possible uses of the mask.

    Just going by the literature, their efficacy is still in question, and reportedly Swedes are not wearing them as much as other peoples.

    Hopefully, some epidemiologist will come up with an ingenious way of analyzing their effect rather than just pointing to Asian countries and saying "See! See!"

    Replies: @utu

    “the wearer’s infection, but not as much for the wearer’s infectivity” – Obviously the reduction of probabilities is not symmetric. The latter case is more important and masks are more effective. If only the infected were wearing the mask the effect would be greater than if only the non-infected were wearing the masks. But determination of probabilities while interesting is really academic because the objective of universal mask wearing is to lower R0 and one shroud concentrate on studies including simulations that measure R0 reduction when say 50%, 70% or 90% of population wears masks.

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.13553.pdf

    “If you could go back and trace all the CDC’s comments, you would find that when they began to embrace masks, it was first a recognition of the difference between different possible uses of the mask.” – OK, but there is a reason they began with a wrong paradigm and took some time to shift to the right one is because they never thought of masks as a mean of controlling the epidemics and R0 reduction on the whole population scale unlike the Asian countries. My hypothesis is that this was so because their paradigm of fighting flu and flu like epidemics was vaccination based.

    “Hopefully, some epidemiologist will come up with an ingenious way of analyzing their effect rather than just pointing to Asian countries and saying “See! See!”” – I am sure more evidence will be accumulated but this is not physics that you necessarily need to have explanations on a ‘micro’ level. Comparative epidemiological studies and yes, including the Asian countries will do.

    • Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter
    @utu

    From the internet archive:

    Why Face Masks Don’t Work: A Revealing Review



    * The filter material of surgical masks does not retain or filter out submicron particles;
    * Surgical masks are not designed to eliminate air leakage around the edges;
    * Surgical masks do not protect the wearer from inhaling small particles that can remain airborne for long periods of time. 31



    While this is worded from the point of view of the wearer, it also applies to submicron particles exhaled by the wearer ... so it seems to provide dubious protection for others as well.
     

     

     
  183. @Mr. Anon
    @raven lunatic


    looking at casualty figures is only a small piece of the problem. the real issue with corona seems to be the way it can deal permanent, lasting damage to the organs of young, healthy people. im afraid we’re only going to understand the full impact of this pandemic after some time has passed
     
    What's also bad is how it can cause Kawasawi syndrome in children. You remember that?

    Except it doesn't. It turns out that claim was wrong.

    Maybe the oft-repeated one about permanent organ damage is too.

    This is the first pandemic in history that the authorities wanted to be worse than it is.

    Replies: @Thirdtwin, @raven lunatic

    im absolutely willing to believe that the establishment would lie in exactly this fashion– i mean after 9/11, iraq, libya, yemen and so on you would have to be mad to consider them anything other than incompetent and evil… but what kind of conspiracy gets china, russia, israel, the us, western europe, india and the koreas all on the same page??

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8427625/As-half-coronavirus-patients-NO-symptoms-silently-suffer-lung-damage.html

    i think ron’s hypothesis that the corona was a bioweapon that got spectacularly out of control is more credible than the idea the whole shabang is an information op. look at a REAL information op; ‘russiagate’. hardly a masterwork of planning and execution, nu?

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @raven lunatic


    look at a REAL information op; ‘russiagate’. hardly a masterwork of planning and execution, nu?
     
    And yet it got about half the population to believe it. There are liberal suburban housewives who refer to Mitch McConnell as "Moscow Mitch".
  184. @prosa123
    @AnotherDad

    As much as I loathe Cuomo, he may not be to blame for most of the nursing home deaths. The big surge in deaths began before he started transferring Covid patients to nursing homes, and likely resulted from employees bringing the virus into the facilities. Consider the recent outbreak at a wedding reception in Maine. Out of about 150 cases there were seven deaths, which happened because one of the attendees worked at a nursing home.

    The only effective way of protecting nursing home patients is what the owner of a Connecticut facility did. At the very beginning of the outbreak he moved several trailers onto the nursing home's property and had some of his employees move into them. The employees agreed not to leave the property, even when off-duty, until things quieted down, as far as I know they followed this arrangement for about three months. While this unorthodox approach prevented any cases from spreading to the nursing home, it was extremely expensive, with each participating employee being paid $15,000 per month.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    Consider the recent outbreak at a wedding reception in Maine. Out of about 150 cases there were seven deaths, which happened because one of the attendees worked at a nursing home.

    The way the press spun this story seems highly deceptive: seven people died due to an outbreak at an event……………..that they didn’t even attend. Those seven deaths didn’t necessarily have anything to do with the wedding reception. The nursing home employee might have gotten it anywhere.

    The press is highly invested in promoting the panic, in case you hadn’t noticed. Look at all the stories about this or that obscure “anti-vaxxer” or “anti-masker” or “COVID-skeptic” who dies from COVID. What about all the other such people who are, and remain, just fine? And what about all the people who did everything that Anthony Fauci said to do on that particular day – shut themselves in their homes, wore masks while they drove alone in their cars, etc. – who still died. Why don’t we hear similar news stories about them?

  185. @Mr. Anon
    @utu


    They are effective when mask wearing is a concerted group effort and more than, say about 80% people wear them. Then the epidemic can be stopped to the point of R0–>0.
     
    The number of infections started to rise in July - far above the numbers in March/April - and lots of people were wearing masks by then. Lots of places had mask mandates. The use of masks seems to be uncorrelated with the spread of the virus. Just as degree of lockdown is uncorrelated with the overall death-rate (in other words - lockdowns didn't work).

    There is no evidence that cloth masks provide any significant protection. You can go to the CDC's website and find a handful of poorly designed and executed studies purporting to show that masks work and studies (equally poor) purporting to show that masks don't work. It kind of begs the question - what the Hell does the CDC do all day? Shouldn't they have figured this out by now? Why haven't there been large, controlled studies on, for example, the efficacy of masks in preventing the spread of seasonal flu? Fauci and the rest of them are always invoking "Science!!!!". Do they actually do any? The best mask study I've seen, conducted in Sweden about 30 years ago, indicates that masks worn by surgeons have no effect on the incidence of post-operative infections. Think about that - surgical masks may not actually even be necessary for surgeons (as far as the patients are concerned - they may help the surgeon).

    Replies: @utu, @Jack D

    “The number of infections started to rise in July – far above the numbers in March/April – and lots of people were wearing masks by then. ” – I would like to see studies on the data comparing state by state with some estimates of mask wearing prevalence for state. The latter might bee hard to get. A study similar to this one:

    Association of country-wide coronavirus mortality with demographics, testing, lockdowns, and public wearing of masks
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342198360_Association_of_country-wide_coronavirus_mortality_with_demographics_testing_lockdowns_and_public_wearing_of_masks_Update_June_15_2020

    that looked at coronavirus deaths across 198 countries and this study:

    Countries with early adoption of face masks showed modest COVID-19 infection rates
    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200624082657.htm

    There is no evidence that cloth masks provide any significant protection. – This is not true. Look at this study.

    Assessment of Fabric Masks as Alternatives to Standard Surgical Masks in Terms of Particle Filtration Efficiency
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20069567v2.full.pdf

    “You can go to the CDC’s website and find a handful of poorly designed and executed studies purporting to show that masks work and studies (equally poor) purporting to show that masks don’t work. It kind of begs the question – what the Hell does the CDC do all day? Shouldn’t they have figured this out by now? Why haven’t there been large, controlled studies on, for example, the efficacy of masks in preventing the spread of seasonal flu?”. Yes, this annoying and exasperating. Apart from incompetence of CDC I stick to my hypothesis that CDC is vested in Big Pharma interests of fighting epidemics with vaccines so they never put much thought into using masks as means of stopping flu like epidemics. See this paper:

    Universal Masking is Urgent in the COVID-19 Pandemic: SEIR and Agent Based Models, Empirical Validation, Policy Recommendations
    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.13553.pdf

    which was published in April 20, 2020 while CDC on May 20, 2020 was still endorsing this anti-mask meta study paper:

    “Nonpharmaceutical Measures for Pandemic Influenza in Nonhealthcare Settings—Personal Protective and Environmental Measures”
    https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

    which IMO was prepared in a rush to cover their ass for the early public ‘mask are not needed’ pronouncements. And then finally they saw the light in September:

    CDC director Robert Redfield said face masks may be more effective than a vaccine in preventing individual coronavirus infections
    https://www.businessinsider.com/cdc-director-masks-better-than-vaccines-at-stopping-coronavirus-2020-9

    In an efficient authoritarian system all top officials of the CDC would end up in prison.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @utu

    Thanks for the link to the studies.


    Association of country-wide coronavirus mortality with demographics, testing, lockdowns, and public wearing of masks
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342198360_Association_of_country-wide_coronavirus_mortality_with_demographics_testing_lockdowns_
     
    The authors admit right in the abstract that their findings are not statistically significant.

    Assessment of Fabric Masks as Alternatives to Standard Surgical Masks in Terms of Particle Filtration Efficiency
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20069567v2.full.pdf
     
    38% filtration efficiency, if you wrap a nylon stocking around your cloth mask. Which nobody does. Anyway, the study says they measured filtration efficiencies using 0.04 micrometer particles (+/- two standard deviations). But mask efficiencies are always quoted for 0.3 micrometer particles because that size is the most difficult to filter. 0.3 micrometer is pretty common for aersolized water-droplets in exhalation. If the filtration efficiency at 0.04 microns is 38%, it's probably considerably lower at 0.3%. The study authors might have at least bothered to consult the wikipedia article on N95 masks before going to the trouble. Like I said - poor studies.

    And, like I said, cloth masks are worthless.

    Replies: @utu

    , @Peripatetic Commenter
    @utu

    And this paper seems to have been driven into the shadows as well:

    Masks Don’t Work: A review of science relevant to COVID-19 social policy

    Replies: @utu

  186. @Paco Wové
    How many of these "notable people" were only "notable" because they died of COVID? Note that Lynika Strozier (RIP) only gained a Wikipedia entry after her death.

    Replies: @Sollipsist, @Steve Sailer

    My impression is that these aren’t terribly notable names. What is yours?

    • Replies: @Paco Wové
    @Steve Sailer

    I would agree. I'd say maybe 10-20 would count as 'notable' by most criteria.

  187. @Ganderson
    @syonredux

    While Stacy’s Mom is a fun song, and quite clever, and Mrs. Rod Stewart is VA VA VOOM!, there are many other FOW songs more worthy of consideration Among my favorites: Red Dragon Tattoo, No Better Place, Valley Winter Song, Acela... the list goes on. Schlesinger will be missed, at least in my house.
    Oh, and the opening of Stacy’s Mom is an homage to The Cars.

    And, didn’t Tom Seaver die of a degenerative disease?

    Replies: @syonredux, @ScarletNumber, @Steve Sailer

    My impression is that these aren’t terribly notable names. What is yours?

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    @Steve Sailer

    Just about the only one I recognise was Trini Lopez, and that is because I like The Dirty Dozen. And he was in his early eighties, ie. in the typical age group for this thing.

    , @Ganderson
    @Steve Sailer

    Agree. I’m just sad Adam Schlesinger is gone. Fun live band,too. The corona Panic is the greatest sham ever perpetuated on the American public, which will have many long term effects, almost all of them bad.

  188. @interesting
    A nice additional column would be any medical issues associated with each person.....so we can see the prevalence of the comorbidities.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    You can look up the medical problems for the most famous, such as Tom Seaver, who retired from public appearances last year due to dementia.

  189. @Nachum
    This may be a lot of work, but you can go into the "History" section of each Wikipedia page and see when the last pre-COVID update was made.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    That’s clever.

    We’d need a control group to compare this metric to, but that would be a good measure of in-the-newsness.

  190. Speaking of obesity, have you checked out the the U.S. ranking in international obesity comparisons? The only countries near our obesity rate are South Pacific islands and a few Middle East countries. In other words, places where men don’t work, just eat.

    And yes, obesity is a COVID risk factor itself, and it drives heat disease, high blood pressure and diabetes, other co-morbidities.

    We should be kicking the world’s ass in COVID fatalities.

  191. How Many COVID Fatalities Died in the Prime of Their Careers?

    How many fentanyl fatalities died in the prime of their infancy?

    Police: Couple Charged With Homicide After Toddler Dies With Fentanyl In His System

  192. @The Germ Theory of Disease
    @Mr. Anon

    Wait, didn't Trini Lopez get killed way back in The Dirty Dozen?

    We all come out like it's Halloween.

    Replies: @Wielgus

    “Two – the guards are through” etc…

  193. The high death rate in March and April seems related to the early protocols. Ventilators were initially seen as the key, though it turns out this was counterproductive. This is so common there is a word for this, ‘iatrogenic,’ which means the unintended harmful effect of medical care. Mortality rate on ventilators was much higher than average (ie, conditional upon the poor health of a person assigned to a ventilator), something like 90% vs. 40%. There are several very different ways to ventilate people, from the simple nose tube (high-flow nasal cannula), to the face mask (non-invasive positive pressure ventilation), to tracheal tube pressure ventilation. Then there are parameters such as how much pressure or oxygen, and there is always a happy medium, neither too high or too low, that varies by individual.

    The initial worry was this would be like SARS, where a large fraction of nurses and hospital workers died because of their direct contact with patients. This led to unprecedented patient neglect when their was unprecedented use of ventilators, which need careful monitoring.

    Ventilator use is way down and the media do not talk much about it because they were so complicit in its early use. It seems like a case ripe for a class-action medical malpractice lawsuit.

    • Agree: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Replies: @Travis
    @eric

    Good point about the ventilators being over-used. A big reason of this was to keep the nurses and doctors safe, as ventilators reduce the amount of aerosolized virus in the hospitals. So they put patients at risk to reduce their own risk of getting COVID. Doctors and hospitals were also encouraged to ventilate patients to increase the hospital bills. the Federal government gave hospitals cash incentives to encourage the use of ventilators. The billions of dollars spent to encourage the use of ventilators cost us thousands of lives. These hospitals took billions of taxpayer money to increase the fatality rate of this coronavirus. Thankfully a few doctors realized early in that ventilators did not save lives, but too many acted on their greed and fear to ventilate far too many patients.

  194. @Jus' Sayin'...
    @anon


    So even if US Covid deaths are overstated 10x, the resulting number (20,000) is still large compared to Polio or tetanus fatalities.
     
    But 200,000 or 300,000 excess deaths in the USA is in line -proportional to population size - with what the USA experienced during the Hong Kong Flu pandemic in 1968. I was a college student at the time and recall nothing like the drastic public health measures now in place. Everyone back then took the excess deaths in stride.

    Replies: @Wielgus

    I was too young to remember much about that time (one event that year I do remember was the assassination of Robert Kennedy) but then and the following year were nothing like now. No social distancing at Woodstock, for God’s sake, to judge from the photos and film from that event. There has been an air of the unreal about this year.

  195. @Steve Sailer
    @Ganderson

    My impression is that these aren't terribly notable names. What is yours?

    Replies: @Wielgus, @Ganderson

    Just about the only one I recognise was Trini Lopez, and that is because I like The Dirty Dozen. And he was in his early eighties, ie. in the typical age group for this thing.

  196. @utu
    @Mr. Anon

    "The number of infections started to rise in July – far above the numbers in March/April – and lots of people were wearing masks by then. " - I would like to see studies on the data comparing state by state with some estimates of mask wearing prevalence for state. The latter might bee hard to get. A study similar to this one:


    Association of country-wide coronavirus mortality with demographics, testing, lockdowns, and public wearing of masks
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342198360_Association_of_country-wide_coronavirus_mortality_with_demographics_testing_lockdowns_and_public_wearing_of_masks_Update_June_15_2020
     
    that looked at coronavirus deaths across 198 countries and this study:

    Countries with early adoption of face masks showed modest COVID-19 infection rates
    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200624082657.htm
     
    There is no evidence that cloth masks provide any significant protection. - This is not true. Look at this study.

    Assessment of Fabric Masks as Alternatives to Standard Surgical Masks in Terms of Particle Filtration Efficiency
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20069567v2.full.pdf
     
    "You can go to the CDC’s website and find a handful of poorly designed and executed studies purporting to show that masks work and studies (equally poor) purporting to show that masks don’t work. It kind of begs the question – what the Hell does the CDC do all day? Shouldn’t they have figured this out by now? Why haven’t there been large, controlled studies on, for example, the efficacy of masks in preventing the spread of seasonal flu?". Yes, this annoying and exasperating. Apart from incompetence of CDC I stick to my hypothesis that CDC is vested in Big Pharma interests of fighting epidemics with vaccines so they never put much thought into using masks as means of stopping flu like epidemics. See this paper:

    Universal Masking is Urgent in the COVID-19 Pandemic: SEIR and Agent Based Models, Empirical Validation, Policy Recommendations
    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.13553.pdf


    which was published in April 20, 2020 while CDC on May 20, 2020 was still endorsing this anti-mask meta study paper:

    “Nonpharmaceutical Measures for Pandemic Influenza in Nonhealthcare Settings—Personal Protective and Environmental Measures”
    https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article


    which IMO was prepared in a rush to cover their ass for the early public 'mask are not needed' pronouncements. And then finally they saw the light in September:

    CDC director Robert Redfield said face masks may be more effective than a vaccine in preventing individual coronavirus infections
    https://www.businessinsider.com/cdc-director-masks-better-than-vaccines-at-stopping-coronavirus-2020-9
     
    In an efficient authoritarian system all top officials of the CDC would end up in prison.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Peripatetic Commenter

    Thanks for the link to the studies.

    Association of country-wide coronavirus mortality with demographics, testing, lockdowns, and public wearing of masks
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342198360_Association_of_country-wide_coronavirus_mortality_with_demographics_testing_lockdowns_

    The authors admit right in the abstract that their findings are not statistically significant.

    Assessment of Fabric Masks as Alternatives to Standard Surgical Masks in Terms of Particle Filtration Efficiency
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20069567v2.full.pdf

    38% filtration efficiency, if you wrap a nylon stocking around your cloth mask. Which nobody does. Anyway, the study says they measured filtration efficiencies using 0.04 micrometer particles (+/- two standard deviations). But mask efficiencies are always quoted for 0.3 micrometer particles because that size is the most difficult to filter. 0.3 micrometer is pretty common for aersolized water-droplets in exhalation. If the filtration efficiency at 0.04 microns is 38%, it’s probably considerably lower at 0.3%. The study authors might have at least bothered to consult the wikipedia article on N95 masks before going to the trouble. Like I said – poor studies.

    And, like I said, cloth masks are worthless.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Mr. Anon

    "38% filtration efficiency, if you wrap a nylon stocking around your cloth mask" - No, look at Fig. 5. With nylon stocking the removal rate is about 70% (grey bars) while w/o nylon stocking it is above 30% (blue bars).

    "If the filtration efficiency at 0.04 microns is 38%, it’s probably considerably lower at 0.3 [ microns]" - I think you got it wrong. It would be other way around. The value 0.04 is nominal value of their particle generator. The measured the removal rate for particles "in size range 0.02 to >1 μm".

    "Like I said – poor studies." - It is a decent study. They could have shown the particle size distribution, though.

    While Medical/Dental mask are twice as good in particle removal rate than for cloth masks (w/o nylon) still the over 30% removal rate can do the trick when almost everybody wears the mask. The test does not tell how much virus shedding is reduced by wearing mask by those who are infected but obviously it must be much bigger effect than as a protective device particularly for the coughing and sneezing bursts that introduce humongous amount of particles and droplets into the environment. Furthermore lower viral load may mean lower chance of infection and milder course of disease and possibly as some speculate may lead to some form of variolation.

    Facial Masking for Covid-19 — Potential for “Variolation” as We Await a Vaccine
    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2026913

    Perhaps the much lower mortality in the 2nd wave can be partly due to this "Variolation" effect.

    The public policy should recommend/require usage of Surgical/Medical/Dental masks which are cheap. The reason cloth masks were allowed was better something than nothing in the US which could not produce/import enough medical masks. Otoh Taiwan was producing 17 million masks daily for population of about 20 millions.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

  197. @utu
    @Chrisnonymous

    "the wearer’s infection, but not as much for the wearer’s infectivity" - Obviously the reduction of probabilities is not symmetric. The latter case is more important and masks are more effective. If only the infected were wearing the mask the effect would be greater than if only the non-infected were wearing the masks. But determination of probabilities while interesting is really academic because the objective of universal mask wearing is to lower R0 and one shroud concentrate on studies including simulations that measure R0 reduction when say 50%, 70% or 90% of population wears masks.

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.13553.pdf

    "If you could go back and trace all the CDC’s comments, you would find that when they began to embrace masks, it was first a recognition of the difference between different possible uses of the mask." - OK, but there is a reason they began with a wrong paradigm and took some time to shift to the right one is because they never thought of masks as a mean of controlling the epidemics and R0 reduction on the whole population scale unlike the Asian countries. My hypothesis is that this was so because their paradigm of fighting flu and flu like epidemics was vaccination based.

    "Hopefully, some epidemiologist will come up with an ingenious way of analyzing their effect rather than just pointing to Asian countries and saying “See! See!”" - I am sure more evidence will be accumulated but this is not physics that you necessarily need to have explanations on a 'micro' level. Comparative epidemiological studies and yes, including the Asian countries will do.

    Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter

    From the internet archive:

    Why Face Masks Don’t Work: A Revealing Review

    * The filter material of surgical masks does not retain or filter out submicron particles;
    * Surgical masks are not designed to eliminate air leakage around the edges;
    * Surgical masks do not protect the wearer from inhaling small particles that can remain airborne for long periods of time. 31

    While this is worded from the point of view of the wearer, it also applies to submicron particles exhaled by the wearer … so it seems to provide dubious protection for others as well.

  198. @raven lunatic
    @Mr. Anon

    im absolutely willing to believe that the establishment would lie in exactly this fashion-- i mean after 9/11, iraq, libya, yemen and so on you would have to be mad to consider them anything other than incompetent and evil... but what kind of conspiracy gets china, russia, israel, the us, western europe, india and the koreas all on the same page??

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8427625/As-half-coronavirus-patients-NO-symptoms-silently-suffer-lung-damage.html

    i think ron's hypothesis that the corona was a bioweapon that got spectacularly out of control is more credible than the idea the whole shabang is an information op. look at a REAL information op; 'russiagate'. hardly a masterwork of planning and execution, nu?

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    look at a REAL information op; ‘russiagate’. hardly a masterwork of planning and execution, nu?

    And yet it got about half the population to believe it. There are liberal suburban housewives who refer to Mitch McConnell as “Moscow Mitch”.

  199. @utu
    @Mr. Anon

    "The number of infections started to rise in July – far above the numbers in March/April – and lots of people were wearing masks by then. " - I would like to see studies on the data comparing state by state with some estimates of mask wearing prevalence for state. The latter might bee hard to get. A study similar to this one:


    Association of country-wide coronavirus mortality with demographics, testing, lockdowns, and public wearing of masks
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342198360_Association_of_country-wide_coronavirus_mortality_with_demographics_testing_lockdowns_and_public_wearing_of_masks_Update_June_15_2020
     
    that looked at coronavirus deaths across 198 countries and this study:

    Countries with early adoption of face masks showed modest COVID-19 infection rates
    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200624082657.htm
     
    There is no evidence that cloth masks provide any significant protection. - This is not true. Look at this study.

    Assessment of Fabric Masks as Alternatives to Standard Surgical Masks in Terms of Particle Filtration Efficiency
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20069567v2.full.pdf
     
    "You can go to the CDC’s website and find a handful of poorly designed and executed studies purporting to show that masks work and studies (equally poor) purporting to show that masks don’t work. It kind of begs the question – what the Hell does the CDC do all day? Shouldn’t they have figured this out by now? Why haven’t there been large, controlled studies on, for example, the efficacy of masks in preventing the spread of seasonal flu?". Yes, this annoying and exasperating. Apart from incompetence of CDC I stick to my hypothesis that CDC is vested in Big Pharma interests of fighting epidemics with vaccines so they never put much thought into using masks as means of stopping flu like epidemics. See this paper:

    Universal Masking is Urgent in the COVID-19 Pandemic: SEIR and Agent Based Models, Empirical Validation, Policy Recommendations
    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.13553.pdf


    which was published in April 20, 2020 while CDC on May 20, 2020 was still endorsing this anti-mask meta study paper:

    “Nonpharmaceutical Measures for Pandemic Influenza in Nonhealthcare Settings—Personal Protective and Environmental Measures”
    https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article


    which IMO was prepared in a rush to cover their ass for the early public 'mask are not needed' pronouncements. And then finally they saw the light in September:

    CDC director Robert Redfield said face masks may be more effective than a vaccine in preventing individual coronavirus infections
    https://www.businessinsider.com/cdc-director-masks-better-than-vaccines-at-stopping-coronavirus-2020-9
     
    In an efficient authoritarian system all top officials of the CDC would end up in prison.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Peripatetic Commenter

    And this paper seems to have been driven into the shadows as well:

    Masks Don’t Work: A review of science relevant to COVID-19 social policy

    • Replies: @utu
    @Peripatetic Commenter

    "And this paper seems to have been driven into the shadows as well": Good. That's where it belongs: Ontario Civil Liberties Association

    Replies: @utu

  200. @nebulafox
    @Jonathan Mason

    >When do you ever hear good news coming out of the US where some county, city, or state has done something remarkable or innovative to combat Covid-19?

    I'd highly recommend Tanner Greer's post on how the US is no longer a "building culture".

    Replies: @res

    I’d highly recommend Tanner Greer’s post on how the US is no longer a “building culture”.

    This?
    https://scholars-stage.blogspot.com/2020/06/on-cultures-that-build.html

    Looks interesting. Thanks.

  201. @utu
    @Jack D

    Masks are imperfect and wearing a mask among people who do not wear them will only delay the time of being infected. So in this sense the SG was correct but obviously he was I would say criminally irresponsible. Masks have a more imported purpose than saving your sorry ass from being infected. Masks purpose is to save everybody's ass from being infected. They are effective when mask wearing is a concerted group effort and more than, say about 80% people wear them. Then the epidemic can be stopped to the point of R0-->0.

    https://www.unz.com/announcement/31000-words-missing-from-the-atlantic-and-the-new-york-times-sunday-magazine/#comment-4166108

    Why did we get such a bad advice from Surgeon General and CDC? Was it just incompetence? Trying to stop people depleting the masks supply for medical workers? Or was it a result of old policy of CDC to not stress masks role in stopping epidemics of flu which would undercut the mass flu vaccination program which Big Pharma supports?


    https://www.unz.com/announcement/31000-words-missing-from-the-atlantic-and-the-new-york-times-sunday-magazine/#comment-4164501

    My theory is that historically in the West unlike in the East Asia we depend more on vaccines and it is in the interest of Big Pharma to have high demand for vaccines, so CDC does not promote mask wearing which if worn by 80% of society could make vaccines for flu like diseases practically unnecessary. Even this May in the middle of the epidemic CDC published a misleading article about the ineffectiveness of masks (to cover their asses I presume). The article was not about R0 reduction which is the most important reason for the universal mask wearing but about chances of being infected while wearing mask among people who do not wear masks. (*).

    You are right that the decision was catastrophic. It suffices to look at Taiwan which was producing 19 millions of masks every day and supplying them to its citizens. The end results: only 499 cases and 7 deaths in population larger than NY state.

     

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Jack D, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Mr. Anon, @anon

    Doesn’t matter effectiveness or purpose of mask.
    Like distancing, not needed.

  202. @eric
    The high death rate in March and April seems related to the early protocols. Ventilators were initially seen as the key, though it turns out this was counterproductive. This is so common there is a word for this, 'iatrogenic,' which means the unintended harmful effect of medical care. Mortality rate on ventilators was much higher than average (ie, conditional upon the poor health of a person assigned to a ventilator), something like 90% vs. 40%. There are several very different ways to ventilate people, from the simple nose tube (high-flow nasal cannula), to the face mask (non-invasive positive pressure ventilation), to tracheal tube pressure ventilation. Then there are parameters such as how much pressure or oxygen, and there is always a happy medium, neither too high or too low, that varies by individual.

    The initial worry was this would be like SARS, where a large fraction of nurses and hospital workers died because of their direct contact with patients. This led to unprecedented patient neglect when their was unprecedented use of ventilators, which need careful monitoring.

    Ventilator use is way down and the media do not talk much about it because they were so complicit in its early use. It seems like a case ripe for a class-action medical malpractice lawsuit.

    Replies: @Travis

    Good point about the ventilators being over-used. A big reason of this was to keep the nurses and doctors safe, as ventilators reduce the amount of aerosolized virus in the hospitals. So they put patients at risk to reduce their own risk of getting COVID. Doctors and hospitals were also encouraged to ventilate patients to increase the hospital bills. the Federal government gave hospitals cash incentives to encourage the use of ventilators. The billions of dollars spent to encourage the use of ventilators cost us thousands of lives. These hospitals took billions of taxpayer money to increase the fatality rate of this coronavirus. Thankfully a few doctors realized early in that ventilators did not save lives, but too many acted on their greed and fear to ventilate far too many patients.

  203. @Mike Pierson, Davenport Rector, Midfielder
    Very few young people, most of whom may readily be inferred to maintain poor health habits. Judging from their names, occupations, and personal histories where available.

    Yes of course I'm being very naughty in making connections like that. I'm also being smart. Which reminds me, is there a consensus estimate on how many of the 200K deaths are excess?

    According to the MSM and social media, Trump has killed well over 200K, and that's just counting the ones he's killed with his bare hands.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Polynikes, @The King is a Fink, @Inquiring Mind

    “Trump has killed well over 200K, and that’s just counting the ones he’s killed with his bare hands.”

    This reminds me of the “President Reagan, Mastermind” sketch on SNL, where he presented himself as a senile doofus in public, but behind closed doors, he was the mastermind and the person actually getting the job done in his Administration.

    https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=snl+sketch+competent+reagan&view=detail&mid=CF9F8BE9232ADB074015CF9F8BE9232ADB074015&FORM=VIRE

    I have always called that sketch “competent Reagan” because the general Narrative was that Mr. Reagan was incompetent, either owing to advancing age, early signs of dementia or just plain having a simplistic view of a complicated world.

    I call the Woodward tapes where Mr. Trump explains his understanding that “this is more deadly than even a rigorous flu” and “it is airborne, easily spread” as “competent Trump.”

    Contrary to the Narrative that Mr. Trump is either an un-read, un-tutored boob or is delusional and needs to be replaced under the 25th Amendment, describing COVID illness as “more deadly than even a rigorous flu” is a concise, on-target explanation of what the medical community is telling us, even if it isn’t couched in buzzwords like “spike protein”, “novel virus” or “cytokine storm.”

    As to his supposed Pollyannaish pronouncements on the need to take precautions, it seems that the most serious breaches of social-distancing and mask protocol occur among college students and minorities, two demographics who are said to regard Mr. Trump negatively? Who among the people who take Mr. Trump seriously are spreading the virus right now? Did he force schools to open? Did he mandate that nursing homes admit COVID patients?

  204. Remember when Steve had many postings about Calculations of R0 ? Remember when we discussed how lockdowns may not save lives, but would flatten the curve ? Remember the obsession over the infection fatality ratio (IFR) and the many attacks on Stanford’s Dr. John Ioannidis when he calculated a fatality rate closer to the flu.

    Appears Dr. Ioannidis was more correct than his critics. 80% of those infected will never even develop symptoms. The prison studies confirm this, as does the antibody testing. unfortunatley the antibodies only can be detected for one to 3 months and not all infected will even produce antibodies because their T cells can easily defeat this virus.

    A recent study in Tokyo demonstrated that almost half the people tested had antibodies, but they do not last. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.21.20198796v1 Conclusions and Relevance: COVID-19 infection may have spread widely across the general population of Tokyo despite the very low fatality rate. Given the temporal correlation between the rise in seropositivity and the decrease in reported COVID-19 cases that occurred without a shut-down, herd immunity may be implicated.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Travis

    Remember when Steve had many postings about Calculations of R0 ? Remember when we discussed how lockdowns may not save lives, but would flatten the curve ? Remember the obsession over the infection fatality ratio (IFR) and the many attacks on Stanford’s Dr. John Ioannidis when he calculated a fatality rate closer to the flu.

    Ioannidis was wrong for the first wave but he may have chanced by pure coincidence that his numbers are closer to the mortality in the 2nd wave. His IFR estimates were wrong. Much better job was done by the team of physics form Berkeley: Modi, Chirag, Vanessa Boehm, Simone Ferraro, George Stein, and Uros Seljak who processed Diamond Princess data and data from three regions in Italy to get estimates of age dependent IFR.


    Total COVID-19 Mortality in Italy: Excess Mortality and Age Dependence through Time-Series Analysis
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20067074v2.full.pdf
     
    Ioannidis could not have known the efficacy of the early treatment and by how much it will improve by a better usage of ventilators and introduction of anti-inflammatory drugs which initially had guidelines against their usage.

    Coronavirus breakthrough: dexamethasone is first drug shown to save lives (June 2020)
    In a large trial, a cheap and widely available steroid cut deaths by one-third among patients critically ill with COVID-19.
    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01824-5
     

    More covid-19 patients are surviving ventilators in the ICU (July 2020)
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/more-covid-19-patients-are-surviving-ventilators-in-the-icu/2020/07/03/2e3c3534-bbca-11ea-8cf5-9c1b8d7f84c6_story.html

    In a May 26 study in the journal Critical Care Medicine, Martin and a group of colleagues found that 35.7 percent of covid-19 patients who required ventilators died — a significant percentage but much lower than early reports that put the figure in the upper 80 percent range.

     

    Still the numbers for the second wave in Spain suggest that mortality rate is even lower. Probably the vulnerable people are protected better so they get lower infection rate than the general population and mask wearing may reduce virus load that may have several consequences such us milder disease and even a potential 'variolation'.

    “Facial Masking for Covid-19 — Potential for “Variolation” as We Await a Vaccine”
    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2026913
     

    Replies: @Travis

  205. @OscarWildeLoveChild
    Can all the big guns, including Tucker, MM, AC, SS, Scott Adams and others on the (truly) alternative right, start meming a national No F'n Mask day? Where everyone just says, I'm done.

    Its retarded that this has not already happened. Tucker could drop the date every night until doomsday and off they come...and never go back. Literally like a union walk out.

    Replies: @Inquiring Mind

    Could we hold off on No Fine Mask Day until after the election?

    Until then, let’s keep wearing those masks and tell the Guy In The Basement, “What d’ya mean you would order a National Mask Mandate, you senile old coot? We are already wearing our f’ne masks! C’mon, man, do you think your National Mask Mandate will have any effect on your voters holding ‘block parties’? What are you going to do, send the police? Federal Marshals like in Portland?”

  206. @Travis
    @utu

    all schools were shuttered in New Jersey by order of the Governor on March 16. All casinos and restaurants were shuttered March 16 also.

    Rutgers, the State University, was shut down in March 10. Princeton had closed the day before.
    by March 16 most of the schools were already shut down. My kids school was closed on March 12, as was the school my wife taught at. Train passenger volume was down 50% the week of March 12. New Jersey was in full panic mode by March 9th, which is when the schools started closing.

    Yet despite the lockdowns which were in full force by March 16 , Coronavirus cases and deaths would not peak for another 31 days....which indicates the lockdowns failed. We now know the incubation period is typically 6 days. The people hospitalized in the middle of April did not catch the disease until 2 weeks after the lockdowns began.

    To suggest the lockdowns began on March 21 and not March 16 is misleading. By March 16 most everyone we knew was working at home, the gyms , restuarants, museums , schools were all closed. People began social distancing by March first, 2 weeks before the "official lockdowns". The panic was clearly visible across the NY metro region, and most of the bigger stores sold out of many goods.

    The NY Post , among other media outlets, covered the panic buying. https://nypost.com/2020/03/01/panicked-new-york-shoppers-stock-up-at-costco-amid-coronavirus-fears/
    Panicked purchasers — many of them wearing face masks — jammed into the warehouse, eagerly grabbing cases of bottled water in case they’re forced to quarantine at home as the virus spreads in the US. “The coronavirus has them panicked … they think the world is coming to an end,” the store’s manager, who would only give his name as Jerry, told The Post on March 1st.

    One reason the CDC opposed school closures and lockdowns and quarantines is because they have been shown not to work well. Sad to see many here fell for the media inspired panic.

    Replies: @eD

    When to date the lockdown is a question of historical interest. And I keep seeing commentators maintaining that they started on March 20th in the Northeast. This seems to be coming mostly from pro-lockdown commentators for some reason.

    In Philadelphia, I had to take a class in a commercial building on March 20th and 21st. I called during the previous week to see if the class would actually take place, since everything was closed. They weren’t sure, but it did take place, but I remember having trouble getting into the building on March 20th because it was closed, and everything was closed and the center of the city was deserted, more so than normal on a weekend. So obviously the lockdown in Philly was in place by March 20th. I paid a visit to New York on March 12-13 and the city was close to “normal”, though the panic had obviously set in and my visit was complicated by stuff being closed.

  207. @Mr. Anon
    @utu


    They are effective when mask wearing is a concerted group effort and more than, say about 80% people wear them. Then the epidemic can be stopped to the point of R0–>0.
     
    The number of infections started to rise in July - far above the numbers in March/April - and lots of people were wearing masks by then. Lots of places had mask mandates. The use of masks seems to be uncorrelated with the spread of the virus. Just as degree of lockdown is uncorrelated with the overall death-rate (in other words - lockdowns didn't work).

    There is no evidence that cloth masks provide any significant protection. You can go to the CDC's website and find a handful of poorly designed and executed studies purporting to show that masks work and studies (equally poor) purporting to show that masks don't work. It kind of begs the question - what the Hell does the CDC do all day? Shouldn't they have figured this out by now? Why haven't there been large, controlled studies on, for example, the efficacy of masks in preventing the spread of seasonal flu? Fauci and the rest of them are always invoking "Science!!!!". Do they actually do any? The best mask study I've seen, conducted in Sweden about 30 years ago, indicates that masks worn by surgeons have no effect on the incidence of post-operative infections. Think about that - surgical masks may not actually even be necessary for surgeons (as far as the patients are concerned - they may help the surgeon).

    Replies: @utu, @Jack D

    Just as degree of lockdown is uncorrelated with the overall death-rate (in other words – lockdowns didn’t work).

    Lockdowns and mask wearing have worked in China (they are basically down to zero – 7 cases/day for a billion+ people) because they still have a serious government while we live in Clown World where even the laws against looting and arson are no longer enforced, let along mask wearing and congregating. A lot of Americans approach the lockdown and mask wearing the way some blacks approach submitting to arrest – “I’ll comply with the law if I feel like it”. And we have the results to show for it.

    Now it’s great that Americans have freedom, even freedom to violate the law and that we don’t have massive concentration camps out in the desert where we are forced to assemble cheap electronics for the export market. But freedom isn’t free – if we err on the side of freedom, there’s a price to be paid for those errors.

    • Replies: @Johann Ricke
    @Jack D


    Lockdowns and mask wearing have worked in China (they are basically down to zero – 7 cases/day for a billion+ people) because they still have a serious government
     
    I'm inclined to disagree. Once again, no one knows how many cases China has. Xi doesn't want to know, and what he doesn't want to know, nobody tells him. Or else*. Apart from that, China shares with its Far Eastern neighbors with very different types of governance a fairly low BMI.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_body_mass_index

    This may be the common link rather than any particular government policy or mode of governance.

    * When Mao's Great Leap Forward was mowing down tens of millions of Chinese like so many acres of wheat, he executed, as counter-revolutionaries, provincial chiefs who came to him with news about mass starvation. Xi's methods are presumably less draconian, but getting busted down a few ranks is probably enough motivation not to forward data that would anyhow promptly be deposited into the circular filing cabinet.

    Replies: @Jack D

    , @Mr. Anon
    @Jack D


    A lot of Americans approach the lockdown and mask wearing the way some blacks approach submitting to arrest – “I’ll comply with the law if I feel like it”. And we have the results to show for it.
     
    There is no law. There are edicts issued by governors and mayors. None of these policies were ever debated or discussed in public. Had you ever even heard the term "social distancing" prior to last March?

    If your argument is - it works when tyrannical governments like that in China do it, then my answer to you would be - go live in China then.


    But freedom isn’t free – if we err on the side of freedom, there’s a price to be paid for those errors.
     
    The price to be paid is a death toll (maybe) in line with that of past pandemics like the Asian Flu.

    There is a price to be paid for normalizing tyranny too.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    , @Jonathan Mason
    @Jack D

    I agree. At my local Walmart there are signs posted saying that masks are required to enter, and yet about half the customers do not comply.

    There is a "one way" system on most aisles, but again most people completely ignore that attempt to enforce social distancing.

    Never mind if it is the law, it is just a matter of simple courtesy to comply with requests on someone else's property, like removing your shoes in someone's house if requested.

    I was in a small produce store yesterday and there was a man there ranting about how he did not care if he went overseas and killed innocent people, because he was defending his country and its flag.

    He was not wearing a mask as he ranted (I was) and presumably did not care if he killed people with Corona virus either, as long as they were not card-carrying flag wavers.

    Incidentally, is the US the only nation in the world where people make war overseas to kill people to defend their flag, and the only country where the national flag is primarily a Memorial Day shibboleth whose main function is to act as a reminder people of military deaths before sports events? Is this in the Constitution?

    In most other countries the national flag is just a ceremonial tool for official functions, and has little or no connection with honoring the dead.

    Olympic games medal ceremonies where national anthems are played and flags displayed have no connection with honoring the dead.

    This sounds irrelevant, but I have noticed that people who don't wear masks in supermarkets often have flags displayed on their vehicle, so perhaps it is just that they don't understand cause and effect very well, leading them to make poor decisions.

  208. @Steve Sailer
    @Paco Wové

    My impression is that these aren't terribly notable names. What is yours?

    Replies: @Paco Wové

    I would agree. I’d say maybe 10-20 would count as ‘notable’ by most criteria.

  209. @Tusk
    Maybe RBG died of COVID too considering she was out officiating weddings without a mask just over two weeks before her death. In fact if I was a Dem I would be putting COVID on the death certificate to stick it to Trump even more.

    Replies: @MarkinLA, @Bill Jones

    ” In fact if I was a Dem I would be putting COVID on the death certificate to stick it to Trump even more.”

    To which Trump could point out that the loon died by not following the rules, that being Chosen somehow made her feel special.

  210. anon[327] • Disclaimer says:

    A reminder it began with fakery:

    … the video’s recent spread appears to have been a classic case of fake news being shared thanks to social media hysteria.

    While many claimed that the video was filmed in Wuhan—and went so far as to point to the video as proof of the “dirty” eating habits of the Chinese people—the video was actually filmed in the Pacific island nation of Palau where the bat dish is eaten locally.

    And while regional scientists had suggested that the latest novel coronavirus outbreak began at the Wuhan Seafood Market—where various exotic creatures including snakes, rats, bats, koala meat, and wolf pups were sold—a new study has shown that while the virus seems to have originated with bats, the earliest reported victims didn’t have any contact with the market.

    https://themindunleashed.com/2020/01/bat-soup-girl-china-apologizes-viral-video-death-threats.html

    Continued with deception:

    Term “Wet Market”

    and

    CBS Caught Using Footage of Italian ER During Coverage of Wuhan Coronavirus in NYC

    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2020/03/30/cbs-nyc-italian-er-n2565961

  211. @Peripatetic Commenter
    @utu

    And this paper seems to have been driven into the shadows as well:

    Masks Don’t Work: A review of science relevant to COVID-19 social policy

    Replies: @utu

    “And this paper seems to have been driven into the shadows as well”: Good. That’s where it belongs: Ontario Civil Liberties Association

    • Replies: @utu
    @utu

    Ontario Civil Liberties Association (OCLA) is a libertarian outfit. They will oppose mandatory mask wearing policy on their principle. Whatever papers and data they collect they can't be taken too seriously. Libertarians fit the definition of "social skeptics" introduced on The Ethical Skeptic blog:


    https://theethicalskeptic.com/2012/05/01/what-is-social-skepticism/

    "The social skeptic is a catalyseur, a third party exploitation specialist fomenting conflict between the public and science (see footnote article and its excerpt on right).1 They are not scientists, nor do they bear experience in science. They do not pursue truth in any specific matter; rather, they seek to twist the principles of skepticism such that they just happen to rule out alternatives and ideas which threaten the self-identifying skeptic. They bolster their confidence in this corrupted approach through the reassuring power of their club, cronies and figurehead celebrities. A cabal which only functions to promote conflict between science and its at-risk stakeholders. They presume to tender preferred final conclusions in lieu of science, without having to account under any semblance of scientific rigor, save for at most skepticism itself. They afford no method of peer review, eschew any assessment of entailed risk or the harm they serve to cause to both persons and science; yet promote stacks of highly questionable conclusivity..."

    "Instead of investigators involved in curious inquiry, they interpret the purpose of skepticism to be promoting polarized controversialism. They seek compensation and salve for some past emotional offense, through the process of belittling others and being hailed by their club for how clever they can appear or how many of the enemy they can harm. Their legacy is often iatrogenic – one for which they do not bear even an inkling of guilt, because they are convinced that they represent reason and science. Therefore, they are justified in ignoring their deeper stultification on what is considered truth. They ‘establish’ their method correctness by armchair or social debunking ghosts, homeopathy, Bigfoot and UFO’s and then ply this false-method (humbly deeming it as a mechanism of ‘best evidence’) credibility into directing what everyone else can do with their body, doctor, voting, research, thoughts, nation, open-mind, rights, political choices, faith choice and their health. They could care less about the topic under discussion; their focus is upon you. "

    "Fake and celebrity skeptics generally define skepticism as a set of various self-licensed forms of scoffing, doubt, disposition promulgation, comprehensive denial of knowledge (de rigueur bullshit to appear academic in pedigree), criticism targeting only disdained objects or systematic culling of ‘wrong’ evidence – all under the authority of skeptics or scientists (they do not possess mere mortal opinion). Generally any weaponized philosophy which allows them to dismiss that which threatens them, and keep that specific conclusion which they want to enforce on you. The goal being to issue a final disposition as quickly and as devastatingly as possible. In other words the exact opposite of skepticism. "
     
    So what kind of science do we get from libertarian fake skeptics and who do they work for? They argue that safety regulation bring 'risk compensation effect' that undermine the safety. Here is an example from 1970s against the seat belts:

    The Effects of Automobile Safety Regulation, Sam Peltzman, Journal of Political Economy
    Vol. 83, No. 4 (Aug., 1975), pp. 677-726

    “Technological studies imply that annual highway deaths would be 20 percent greater without legally mandated installation of various safety devices on automobiles. However, this literature ignores offsetting effects of nonregulatory demand for safety and driver response to the devices. This article indicates that these offsets are virtually complete, so that regulation has not decreased highway deaths.”
     
    And this from few months ago by some hacks from a business schools in UK against the masks:

    Risk compensation during COVID-19: The impact of face mask usage on social distancing
    https://osf.io/rb8he/
     

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

  212. @Mr. Anon
    @utu

    Thanks for the link to the studies.


    Association of country-wide coronavirus mortality with demographics, testing, lockdowns, and public wearing of masks
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342198360_Association_of_country-wide_coronavirus_mortality_with_demographics_testing_lockdowns_
     
    The authors admit right in the abstract that their findings are not statistically significant.

    Assessment of Fabric Masks as Alternatives to Standard Surgical Masks in Terms of Particle Filtration Efficiency
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20069567v2.full.pdf
     
    38% filtration efficiency, if you wrap a nylon stocking around your cloth mask. Which nobody does. Anyway, the study says they measured filtration efficiencies using 0.04 micrometer particles (+/- two standard deviations). But mask efficiencies are always quoted for 0.3 micrometer particles because that size is the most difficult to filter. 0.3 micrometer is pretty common for aersolized water-droplets in exhalation. If the filtration efficiency at 0.04 microns is 38%, it's probably considerably lower at 0.3%. The study authors might have at least bothered to consult the wikipedia article on N95 masks before going to the trouble. Like I said - poor studies.

    And, like I said, cloth masks are worthless.

    Replies: @utu

    “38% filtration efficiency, if you wrap a nylon stocking around your cloth mask” – No, look at Fig. 5. With nylon stocking the removal rate is about 70% (grey bars) while w/o nylon stocking it is above 30% (blue bars).

    “If the filtration efficiency at 0.04 microns is 38%, it’s probably considerably lower at 0.3 [ microns]” – I think you got it wrong. It would be other way around. The value 0.04 is nominal value of their particle generator. The measured the removal rate for particles “in size range 0.02 to >1 μm”.

    “Like I said – poor studies.” – It is a decent study. They could have shown the particle size distribution, though.

    While Medical/Dental mask are twice as good in particle removal rate than for cloth masks (w/o nylon) still the over 30% removal rate can do the trick when almost everybody wears the mask. The test does not tell how much virus shedding is reduced by wearing mask by those who are infected but obviously it must be much bigger effect than as a protective device particularly for the coughing and sneezing bursts that introduce humongous amount of particles and droplets into the environment. Furthermore lower viral load may mean lower chance of infection and milder course of disease and possibly as some speculate may lead to some form of variolation.

    Facial Masking for Covid-19 — Potential for “Variolation” as We Await a Vaccine
    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2026913

    Perhaps the much lower mortality in the 2nd wave can be partly due to this “Variolation” effect.

    The public policy should recommend/require usage of Surgical/Medical/Dental masks which are cheap. The reason cloth masks were allowed was better something than nothing in the US which could not produce/import enough medical masks. Otoh Taiwan was producing 17 million masks daily for population of about 20 millions.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @utu


    “38% filtration efficiency, if you wrap a nylon stocking around your cloth mask” – No, look at Fig. 5. With nylon stocking the removal rate is about 70% (grey bars) while w/o nylon stocking it is above 30% (blue bars).
     
    I quoted that from their abstract. Not my problem if they got their abstract wrong.

    “If the filtration efficiency at 0.04 microns is 38%, it’s probably considerably lower at 0.3 [ microns]” – I think you got it wrong. It would be other way around. The value 0.04 is nominal value of their particle generator. The measured the removal rate for particles “in size range 0.02 to >1 μm”.
     
    No, particles of about 0.3 micron size are generally the hardest to filter:

    https://multimedia.3m.com/mws/media/410364O/filtration-mechanisms-for-particulate-respirators.pdf

    That's why respirators are rated at that size. N95 masks are pretty good (at least 95% filtration at 0.3 microns). Quoting a filtration efficiency at essentially 0.04 microns doesn't permit any comparison with N95 masks. If the authors had researched the matter a little, they might have found that out.

    “Like I said – poor studies.” – It is a decent study. They could have shown the particle size distribution, though.
     
    No, it's a poor study, for the reasons I gave above.

    Perhaps the much lower mortality in the 2nd wave can be partly due to this “Variolation” effect.
     
    Or perhaps it's due to a majority of the people who were likely to die from it already having died.

    The public policy should recommend/require usage of Surgical/Medical/Dental masks which are cheap. The reason cloth masks were allowed was better something than nothing in the US which could not produce/import enough medical masks. Otoh Taiwan was producing 17 million masks daily for population of about 20 millions.
     
    No, public policy should be to not assume powers that the government does not and ought not to have. It does not have the right to tell people to wear masks just because it makes you feel better. You want to wear a mask? Knock yourself out. The personal concerns of nervous people are not sufficient justification to order people to muzzle themselves.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @utu

  213. @Travis
    Remember when Steve had many postings about Calculations of R0 ? Remember when we discussed how lockdowns may not save lives, but would flatten the curve ? Remember the obsession over the infection fatality ratio (IFR) and the many attacks on Stanford’s Dr. John Ioannidis when he calculated a fatality rate closer to the flu.

    Appears Dr. Ioannidis was more correct than his critics. 80% of those infected will never even develop symptoms. The prison studies confirm this, as does the antibody testing. unfortunatley the antibodies only can be detected for one to 3 months and not all infected will even produce antibodies because their T cells can easily defeat this virus.

    A recent study in Tokyo demonstrated that almost half the people tested had antibodies, but they do not last. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.21.20198796v1 Conclusions and Relevance: COVID-19 infection may have spread widely across the general population of Tokyo despite the very low fatality rate. Given the temporal correlation between the rise in seropositivity and the decrease in reported COVID-19 cases that occurred without a shut-down, herd immunity may be implicated.

    Replies: @utu

    Remember when Steve had many postings about Calculations of R0 ? Remember when we discussed how lockdowns may not save lives, but would flatten the curve ? Remember the obsession over the infection fatality ratio (IFR) and the many attacks on Stanford’s Dr. John Ioannidis when he calculated a fatality rate closer to the flu.

    Ioannidis was wrong for the first wave but he may have chanced by pure coincidence that his numbers are closer to the mortality in the 2nd wave. His IFR estimates were wrong. Much better job was done by the team of physics form Berkeley: Modi, Chirag, Vanessa Boehm, Simone Ferraro, George Stein, and Uros Seljak who processed Diamond Princess data and data from three regions in Italy to get estimates of age dependent IFR.

    Total COVID-19 Mortality in Italy: Excess Mortality and Age Dependence through Time-Series Analysis
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20067074v2.full.pdf

    Ioannidis could not have known the efficacy of the early treatment and by how much it will improve by a better usage of ventilators and introduction of anti-inflammatory drugs which initially had guidelines against their usage.

    Coronavirus breakthrough: dexamethasone is first drug shown to save lives (June 2020)
    In a large trial, a cheap and widely available steroid cut deaths by one-third among patients critically ill with COVID-19.
    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01824-5

    More covid-19 patients are surviving ventilators in the ICU (July 2020)
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/more-covid-19-patients-are-surviving-ventilators-in-the-icu/2020/07/03/2e3c3534-bbca-11ea-8cf5-9c1b8d7f84c6_story.html

    In a May 26 study in the journal Critical Care Medicine, Martin and a group of colleagues found that 35.7 percent of covid-19 patients who required ventilators died — a significant percentage but much lower than early reports that put the figure in the upper 80 percent range.

    Still the numbers for the second wave in Spain suggest that mortality rate is even lower. Probably the vulnerable people are protected better so they get lower infection rate than the general population and mask wearing may reduce virus load that may have several consequences such us milder disease and even a potential ‘variolation’.

    “Facial Masking for Covid-19 — Potential for “Variolation” as We Await a Vaccine”
    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2026913

    • Replies: @Travis
    @utu

    The antibody testing done in NYC is further evidence that the IFR was always very low, even when we were ventilating too many. ultimately, it’s all about trying to identify an accurate denominator to determine the IFR. This was difficult in April and May when you needed to have symptoms to get tested (unless you were a prisoner in Ohio). If we know how many have been infected, we can accurately calculate IFR. In NYC during the month of April 30% were infected , based in the antibody tests. Yet few were getting tested, because you needed to show symptoms. Since most of those ingfected never show symptoms the IFR was not calculated correctly. Today the IFR appears lower because more asymptomatic people are getting tested.

    In four U.S. state prisons, nearly 3,300 inmates test positive for coronavirus -- 96% without symptoms. This was back in April. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-prisons-testing-in/in-four-u-s-state-prisons-nearly-3300-inmates-test-positive-for-coronavirus-96-without-symptoms-idUSKCN2270RX -

    The antibody testing done in NYC indicated that almost half the population was infected by May. So the IFR was always much lower than .05%. A recent study done in Tokyo indicated that 50% of asymptomatic workers had the antibodies. These people never had symptoms and never tested positive for CV , yet half of them had the antibodies. So ultimately, it’s all about trying to identify an accurate denominator. The high numbers of asymptomatics is how we know that pre-existing immunity is real. How else could we explain so many people brushed off infection with the “novel” coronavirus. For most people, it’s just another coronavirus...no big deal.

    The data on asymptomatics sheds an important light on Covid-19
    -Not nearly as deadly as thought
    -Significant pre-existing immunity
    -We are much closer to herd immunity than anybody thinks

    a Japanese study confirms further confirms that most people who contracted CV never realized it. Almost 50% of those tested in Tokyo had the antibodies to CV. Yet none of those in the study had any symptoms. The study also demonstrated that the antibodies only last for about a month for these asymptomatic people. Below is a link to the study.
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.21.20198796v1

    so when you are able to test asymptomatic people the IFR will be below .2%. When only sick people get tested the IFR will be closer to 1%. This is the reason the IFR has fallen quickly as testing was ramped up. If testing was widespread in NYC we would have realized this sooner, but testing was not available unless you were sick enough to qualify. Ioannidis was correct because he used better data, the antibody testing done in CA at the time was able to detect many more people had CV than the official numbers at the time , which were based on sick people who were able to get tested when most people were unable to get tested.

    Replies: @utu

  214. @Jack D
    @Mr. Anon


    Just as degree of lockdown is uncorrelated with the overall death-rate (in other words – lockdowns didn’t work).
     
    Lockdowns and mask wearing have worked in China (they are basically down to zero - 7 cases/day for a billion+ people) because they still have a serious government while we live in Clown World where even the laws against looting and arson are no longer enforced, let along mask wearing and congregating. A lot of Americans approach the lockdown and mask wearing the way some blacks approach submitting to arrest - "I'll comply with the law if I feel like it". And we have the results to show for it.

    Now it's great that Americans have freedom, even freedom to violate the law and that we don't have massive concentration camps out in the desert where we are forced to assemble cheap electronics for the export market. But freedom isn't free - if we err on the side of freedom, there's a price to be paid for those errors.

    Replies: @Johann Ricke, @Mr. Anon, @Jonathan Mason

    Lockdowns and mask wearing have worked in China (they are basically down to zero – 7 cases/day for a billion+ people) because they still have a serious government

    I’m inclined to disagree. Once again, no one knows how many cases China has. Xi doesn’t want to know, and what he doesn’t want to know, nobody tells him. Or else*. Apart from that, China shares with its Far Eastern neighbors with very different types of governance a fairly low BMI.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_body_mass_index

    This may be the common link rather than any particular government policy or mode of governance.

    * When Mao’s Great Leap Forward was mowing down tens of millions of Chinese like so many acres of wheat, he executed, as counter-revolutionaries, provincial chiefs who came to him with news about mass starvation. Xi’s methods are presumably less draconian, but getting busted down a few ranks is probably enough motivation not to forward data that would anyhow promptly be deposited into the circular filing cabinet.

    • Thanks: HammerJack
    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Johann Ricke


    Xi’s methods are presumably less draconian, but getting busted down a few ranks is probably enough motivation not to forward data that would anyhow promptly be deposited into the circular filing cabinet.
     
    The virus spread for several weeks because, while the China central government had put into place a reporting system for unknown infections, the local authorities subverted the system and would not let the local doctors report the epidemic to Beijing, even having the police threaten them.

    Replies: @Johann Ricke, @Johann Ricke, @Johann Ricke

  215. What’s the difference between dying from flu related complications and flu related complications aka Covid19?

    Sanity?

  216. @utu
    @Peripatetic Commenter

    "And this paper seems to have been driven into the shadows as well": Good. That's where it belongs: Ontario Civil Liberties Association

    Replies: @utu

    Ontario Civil Liberties Association (OCLA) is a libertarian outfit. They will oppose mandatory mask wearing policy on their principle. Whatever papers and data they collect they can’t be taken too seriously. Libertarians fit the definition of “social skeptics” introduced on The Ethical Skeptic blog:

    https://theethicalskeptic.com/2012/05/01/what-is-social-skepticism/

    “The social skeptic is a catalyseur, a third party exploitation specialist fomenting conflict between the public and science (see footnote article and its excerpt on right).1 They are not scientists, nor do they bear experience in science. They do not pursue truth in any specific matter; rather, they seek to twist the principles of skepticism such that they just happen to rule out alternatives and ideas which threaten the self-identifying skeptic. They bolster their confidence in this corrupted approach through the reassuring power of their club, cronies and figurehead celebrities. A cabal which only functions to promote conflict between science and its at-risk stakeholders. They presume to tender preferred final conclusions in lieu of science, without having to account under any semblance of scientific rigor, save for at most skepticism itself. They afford no method of peer review, eschew any assessment of entailed risk or the harm they serve to cause to both persons and science; yet promote stacks of highly questionable conclusivity…”

    “Instead of investigators involved in curious inquiry, they interpret the purpose of skepticism to be promoting polarized controversialism. They seek compensation and salve for some past emotional offense, through the process of belittling others and being hailed by their club for how clever they can appear or how many of the enemy they can harm. Their legacy is often iatrogenic – one for which they do not bear even an inkling of guilt, because they are convinced that they represent reason and science. Therefore, they are justified in ignoring their deeper stultification on what is considered truth. They ‘establish’ their method correctness by armchair or social debunking ghosts, homeopathy, Bigfoot and UFO’s and then ply this false-method (humbly deeming it as a mechanism of ‘best evidence’) credibility into directing what everyone else can do with their body, doctor, voting, research, thoughts, nation, open-mind, rights, political choices, faith choice and their health. They could care less about the topic under discussion; their focus is upon you. ”

    “Fake and celebrity skeptics generally define skepticism as a set of various self-licensed forms of scoffing, doubt, disposition promulgation, comprehensive denial of knowledge (de rigueur bullshit to appear academic in pedigree), criticism targeting only disdained objects or systematic culling of ‘wrong’ evidence – all under the authority of skeptics or scientists (they do not possess mere mortal opinion). Generally any weaponized philosophy which allows them to dismiss that which threatens them, and keep that specific conclusion which they want to enforce on you. The goal being to issue a final disposition as quickly and as devastatingly as possible. In other words the exact opposite of skepticism. “

    So what kind of science do we get from libertarian fake skeptics and who do they work for? They argue that safety regulation bring ‘risk compensation effect’ that undermine the safety. Here is an example from 1970s against the seat belts:

    The Effects of Automobile Safety Regulation, Sam Peltzman, Journal of Political Economy
    Vol. 83, No. 4 (Aug., 1975), pp. 677-726

    “Technological studies imply that annual highway deaths would be 20 percent greater without legally mandated installation of various safety devices on automobiles. However, this literature ignores offsetting effects of nonregulatory demand for safety and driver response to the devices. This article indicates that these offsets are virtually complete, so that regulation has not decreased highway deaths.”

    And this from few months ago by some hacks from a business schools in UK against the masks:

    Risk compensation during COVID-19: The impact of face mask usage on social distancing
    https://osf.io/rb8he/

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @utu


    So what kind of science do we get from libertarian fake skeptics and who do they work for?
     
    What kind of science do we get from totalitarian lickspittles? And whom do you work for?
  217. @utu
    @Travis

    Remember when Steve had many postings about Calculations of R0 ? Remember when we discussed how lockdowns may not save lives, but would flatten the curve ? Remember the obsession over the infection fatality ratio (IFR) and the many attacks on Stanford’s Dr. John Ioannidis when he calculated a fatality rate closer to the flu.

    Ioannidis was wrong for the first wave but he may have chanced by pure coincidence that his numbers are closer to the mortality in the 2nd wave. His IFR estimates were wrong. Much better job was done by the team of physics form Berkeley: Modi, Chirag, Vanessa Boehm, Simone Ferraro, George Stein, and Uros Seljak who processed Diamond Princess data and data from three regions in Italy to get estimates of age dependent IFR.


    Total COVID-19 Mortality in Italy: Excess Mortality and Age Dependence through Time-Series Analysis
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20067074v2.full.pdf
     
    Ioannidis could not have known the efficacy of the early treatment and by how much it will improve by a better usage of ventilators and introduction of anti-inflammatory drugs which initially had guidelines against their usage.

    Coronavirus breakthrough: dexamethasone is first drug shown to save lives (June 2020)
    In a large trial, a cheap and widely available steroid cut deaths by one-third among patients critically ill with COVID-19.
    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01824-5
     

    More covid-19 patients are surviving ventilators in the ICU (July 2020)
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/more-covid-19-patients-are-surviving-ventilators-in-the-icu/2020/07/03/2e3c3534-bbca-11ea-8cf5-9c1b8d7f84c6_story.html

    In a May 26 study in the journal Critical Care Medicine, Martin and a group of colleagues found that 35.7 percent of covid-19 patients who required ventilators died — a significant percentage but much lower than early reports that put the figure in the upper 80 percent range.

     

    Still the numbers for the second wave in Spain suggest that mortality rate is even lower. Probably the vulnerable people are protected better so they get lower infection rate than the general population and mask wearing may reduce virus load that may have several consequences such us milder disease and even a potential 'variolation'.

    “Facial Masking for Covid-19 — Potential for “Variolation” as We Await a Vaccine”
    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2026913
     

    Replies: @Travis

    The antibody testing done in NYC is further evidence that the IFR was always very low, even when we were ventilating too many. ultimately, it’s all about trying to identify an accurate denominator to determine the IFR. This was difficult in April and May when you needed to have symptoms to get tested (unless you were a prisoner in Ohio). If we know how many have been infected, we can accurately calculate IFR. In NYC during the month of April 30% were infected , based in the antibody tests. Yet few were getting tested, because you needed to show symptoms. Since most of those ingfected never show symptoms the IFR was not calculated correctly. Today the IFR appears lower because more asymptomatic people are getting tested.

    In four U.S. state prisons, nearly 3,300 inmates test positive for coronavirus — 96% without symptoms. This was back in April. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-prisons-testing-in/in-four-u-s-state-prisons-nearly-3300-inmates-test-positive-for-coronavirus-96-without-symptoms-idUSKCN2270RX

    The antibody testing done in NYC indicated that almost half the population was infected by May. So the IFR was always much lower than .05%. A recent study done in Tokyo indicated that 50% of asymptomatic workers had the antibodies. These people never had symptoms and never tested positive for CV , yet half of them had the antibodies. So ultimately, it’s all about trying to identify an accurate denominator. The high numbers of asymptomatics is how we know that pre-existing immunity is real. How else could we explain so many people brushed off infection with the “novel” coronavirus. For most people, it’s just another coronavirus…no big deal.

    The data on asymptomatics sheds an important light on Covid-19
    -Not nearly as deadly as thought
    -Significant pre-existing immunity
    -We are much closer to herd immunity than anybody thinks

    a Japanese study confirms further confirms that most people who contracted CV never realized it. Almost 50% of those tested in Tokyo had the antibodies to CV. Yet none of those in the study had any symptoms. The study also demonstrated that the antibodies only last for about a month for these asymptomatic people. Below is a link to the study.
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.21.20198796v1

    so when you are able to test asymptomatic people the IFR will be below .2%. When only sick people get tested the IFR will be closer to 1%. This is the reason the IFR has fallen quickly as testing was ramped up. If testing was widespread in NYC we would have realized this sooner, but testing was not available unless you were sick enough to qualify. Ioannidis was correct because he used better data, the antibody testing done in CA at the time was able to detect many more people had CV than the official numbers at the time , which were based on sick people who were able to get tested when most people were unable to get tested.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Travis

    "The antibody testing done in NYC indicated that almost half the population was infected by May. " and "So the IFR was always much lower than .05%."

    As of May 1 and June 12 NYC had 19.9% and 21.6% test positive prevalence, respectively.
    https://www.6sqft.com/new-york-covid-antibody-test-preliminary-results/

    The total death in NYC was about 23,000. (Probably higher when excess death stats are used.)
    https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

    NYC population = 8.4 mil. (Probably lower when about 0.4 mil of NYC covid refugees are taken into account)

    Use the three numbers: 20%, 23k and 8.4 mil and calculate IFR. I get IFR=1.37% for NYC.

    Don't you have somebody who could quality control your statements? I just do not understand where are you coming from.

    Replies: @Travis

  218. @Travis
    @utu

    The antibody testing done in NYC is further evidence that the IFR was always very low, even when we were ventilating too many. ultimately, it’s all about trying to identify an accurate denominator to determine the IFR. This was difficult in April and May when you needed to have symptoms to get tested (unless you were a prisoner in Ohio). If we know how many have been infected, we can accurately calculate IFR. In NYC during the month of April 30% were infected , based in the antibody tests. Yet few were getting tested, because you needed to show symptoms. Since most of those ingfected never show symptoms the IFR was not calculated correctly. Today the IFR appears lower because more asymptomatic people are getting tested.

    In four U.S. state prisons, nearly 3,300 inmates test positive for coronavirus -- 96% without symptoms. This was back in April. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-prisons-testing-in/in-four-u-s-state-prisons-nearly-3300-inmates-test-positive-for-coronavirus-96-without-symptoms-idUSKCN2270RX -

    The antibody testing done in NYC indicated that almost half the population was infected by May. So the IFR was always much lower than .05%. A recent study done in Tokyo indicated that 50% of asymptomatic workers had the antibodies. These people never had symptoms and never tested positive for CV , yet half of them had the antibodies. So ultimately, it’s all about trying to identify an accurate denominator. The high numbers of asymptomatics is how we know that pre-existing immunity is real. How else could we explain so many people brushed off infection with the “novel” coronavirus. For most people, it’s just another coronavirus...no big deal.

    The data on asymptomatics sheds an important light on Covid-19
    -Not nearly as deadly as thought
    -Significant pre-existing immunity
    -We are much closer to herd immunity than anybody thinks

    a Japanese study confirms further confirms that most people who contracted CV never realized it. Almost 50% of those tested in Tokyo had the antibodies to CV. Yet none of those in the study had any symptoms. The study also demonstrated that the antibodies only last for about a month for these asymptomatic people. Below is a link to the study.
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.21.20198796v1

    so when you are able to test asymptomatic people the IFR will be below .2%. When only sick people get tested the IFR will be closer to 1%. This is the reason the IFR has fallen quickly as testing was ramped up. If testing was widespread in NYC we would have realized this sooner, but testing was not available unless you were sick enough to qualify. Ioannidis was correct because he used better data, the antibody testing done in CA at the time was able to detect many more people had CV than the official numbers at the time , which were based on sick people who were able to get tested when most people were unable to get tested.

    Replies: @utu

    “The antibody testing done in NYC indicated that almost half the population was infected by May. ” and “So the IFR was always much lower than .05%.”

    As of May 1 and June 12 NYC had 19.9% and 21.6% test positive prevalence, respectively.
    https://www.6sqft.com/new-york-covid-antibody-test-preliminary-results/

    The total death in NYC was about 23,000. (Probably higher when excess death stats are used.)
    https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

    NYC population = 8.4 mil. (Probably lower when about 0.4 mil of NYC covid refugees are taken into account)

    Use the three numbers: 20%, 23k and 8.4 mil and calculate IFR. I get IFR=1.37% for NYC.

    Don’t you have somebody who could quality control your statements? I just do not understand where are you coming from.

    • Replies: @Travis
    @utu

    The antibodies only can be detected for a month. The first week of testing found 61% of New Yorkers had antibodies, the second week found 44% had antibodies, the third week 33% had antibodies

    The Japanese study is one of many which demonstrate that the antibodies are only detectable for about a month, which is the reason the NYC antibody testing results indicate the numbers of New Yorkers with antibodies fell to 20% because only 20% have long lasting antibodies which can be detected after 30 days.

    https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1305215126379917314

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco, @utu

  219. @utu
    @Travis

    "The antibody testing done in NYC indicated that almost half the population was infected by May. " and "So the IFR was always much lower than .05%."

    As of May 1 and June 12 NYC had 19.9% and 21.6% test positive prevalence, respectively.
    https://www.6sqft.com/new-york-covid-antibody-test-preliminary-results/

    The total death in NYC was about 23,000. (Probably higher when excess death stats are used.)
    https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

    NYC population = 8.4 mil. (Probably lower when about 0.4 mil of NYC covid refugees are taken into account)

    Use the three numbers: 20%, 23k and 8.4 mil and calculate IFR. I get IFR=1.37% for NYC.

    Don't you have somebody who could quality control your statements? I just do not understand where are you coming from.

    Replies: @Travis

    The antibodies only can be detected for a month. The first week of testing found 61% of New Yorkers had antibodies, the second week found 44% had antibodies, the third week 33% had antibodies

    The Japanese study is one of many which demonstrate that the antibodies are only detectable for about a month, which is the reason the NYC antibody testing results indicate the numbers of New Yorkers with antibodies fell to 20% because only 20% have long lasting antibodies which can be detected after 30 days.

    • Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @Travis

    It is clear by now that the antibodies do not last long and the tests miss detecting antibodies in those who recovered from CV.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/07/26/health/coronvirus-antibody-tests.amp.html

    , @utu
    @Travis

    Even if the infection rate in NYC was 40% as you insist then IFR would be 0.65% which is over 10 times higher than 0.05% that you claimed. But I do not accept the 40% number.

    I do not think that interpretations provided by you on the antibody tests graph
    https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-testing.page
    are correct. One would need to know more about the tests that were used, testing procedure and sampling. First two tests in April had relatively small sample. How representative were the samples? I am not aware of any publication using the data.

    The Tokyo paper is interesting indeed. The sample is small and not necessarily representative: subjects worked for the same company in several offices in Tokyo. The reversal rate was 12%. While the estimate of IFR for Tokyo are extremely low, orders of magnitude lower than in other countries, the result show what was observed in other countries that IFR of the 2nd wave is significantly lower than in the first wave. But they can only speculate why IFR is that low in Tokyo.


    During the second surge, only 31 fatal cases (observed between June 22 and August 25) were reported in Tokyo, while the first surge (March 20 to May 20) claimed 244 lives. Assuming an infection rate of 40 % within the Tokyo urban population (14 million), the infection fatality rate (IFR) during this period could potentially be as low as 0.0006%, which is as low as the lowest IFR observed among teens in Switzerland4. Future studies may consider evaluating whether lifestyle/habits, viral strain, the widespread use of masks, and/or host factors such as immunological memory are responsible for the observed low fatality.
     
    The paper has not been reviewed for publication yet.

    Replies: @Travis

  220. @Steve Sailer
    @Ganderson

    My impression is that these aren't terribly notable names. What is yours?

    Replies: @Wielgus, @Ganderson

    Agree. I’m just sad Adam Schlesinger is gone. Fun live band,too. The corona Panic is the greatest sham ever perpetuated on the American public, which will have many long term effects, almost all of them bad.

  221. @Travis
    @utu

    The antibodies only can be detected for a month. The first week of testing found 61% of New Yorkers had antibodies, the second week found 44% had antibodies, the third week 33% had antibodies

    The Japanese study is one of many which demonstrate that the antibodies are only detectable for about a month, which is the reason the NYC antibody testing results indicate the numbers of New Yorkers with antibodies fell to 20% because only 20% have long lasting antibodies which can be detected after 30 days.

    https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1305215126379917314

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco, @utu

    It is clear by now that the antibodies do not last long and the tests miss detecting antibodies in those who recovered from CV.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/07/26/health/coronvirus-antibody-tests.amp.html

  222. @Johann Ricke
    @Jack D


    Lockdowns and mask wearing have worked in China (they are basically down to zero – 7 cases/day for a billion+ people) because they still have a serious government
     
    I'm inclined to disagree. Once again, no one knows how many cases China has. Xi doesn't want to know, and what he doesn't want to know, nobody tells him. Or else*. Apart from that, China shares with its Far Eastern neighbors with very different types of governance a fairly low BMI.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_body_mass_index

    This may be the common link rather than any particular government policy or mode of governance.

    * When Mao's Great Leap Forward was mowing down tens of millions of Chinese like so many acres of wheat, he executed, as counter-revolutionaries, provincial chiefs who came to him with news about mass starvation. Xi's methods are presumably less draconian, but getting busted down a few ranks is probably enough motivation not to forward data that would anyhow promptly be deposited into the circular filing cabinet.

    Replies: @Jack D

    Xi’s methods are presumably less draconian, but getting busted down a few ranks is probably enough motivation not to forward data that would anyhow promptly be deposited into the circular filing cabinet.

    The virus spread for several weeks because, while the China central government had put into place a reporting system for unknown infections, the local authorities subverted the system and would not let the local doctors report the epidemic to Beijing, even having the police threaten them.

    • Replies: @Johann Ricke
    @Jack D


    The virus spread for several weeks because, while the China central government had put into place a reporting system for unknown infections, the local authorities subverted the system and would not let the local doctors report the epidemic to Beijing, even having the police threaten them.
     
    This has been the standard issue excuse for royal ineptness/indifference literally since anyone started keeping count. If only the Tsar knew. Meanwhile, we have a high-ranking Party official sentenced to almost 2 decades in prison for giving Xi a hard time because he doesn't want to hear bad news.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/22/asia/china-ren-zhiqiang-xi-jinping-intl-hnk/index.html

    Xi is emperor in all but name. If he wants to know, he can find out. Nobody can hold information back from him. He can literally have the people doing this killed. His whole narrative is three card monte for the masses. And the foreign media, which is all too glad to contrast the calm efficiency of this Oriental potentate with the incompetence of Orange Hitler. All this despite the fact that Trump has a tiny fraction of the authority over the US that Xi holds over the Chinese population, including, quite literally, the power of life and death.

    Replies: @utu

    , @Johann Ricke
    @Jack D

    Here's an article on a number of people who risked their welfare to report on what was happening in China with respect to the pandemic:


    Chinese lawyer-turned-citizen journalist Chen Qiushi, who was detained after reporting from the front line of the coronavirus epidemic in the central city of Wuhan, remains "under the supervision" of the authorities, a close friend has said.

    Chen's friend and mixed martial arts (MMA) star Xu Xiaodong said via a statement on YouTube that Chen is in good health, but has yet to return home.

    "[Chen] Qiushi is still under the supervision of a certain agency and hasn't come home yet," Xu said.

    "According to sources in China, Hong Kong and Japan, he has no money ... and never incited anyone [to subversion]," Xu said. "He has never been in touch with any opposition groups overseas."

    "For the time being, there will be no prosecution or trial."

    Taiwan's Central News Agency also quoted friends of Chen's as saying he remains under incommunicado detention.

    Chen was taken away by police on Feb. 6 after he started livestreaming from hospitals in Wuhan.

    Similar treatment was meted out to rights activist and citizen journalist Fang Bin, who was detained on Feb. 9, and to a former anchor with state broadcaster CCTV, Li Zehua, who was detained on Feb. 26.

    One of Chen's last broadcasts was from the newly built prefabricated hospital in Wuhan, which he had reached on a borrowed electric motor scooter, and which he described as "not fit to house infectious disease patients, as it was obviously designed to be a battlefield hospital."

    'I will carry on reporting'

    In a video posted about the events of Jan. 29, Chen had already expressed concerns that the authorities were on his trail.

    "I have the coronavirus in my face, and the entire law enforcement system of China on my tail," he said. "But I will carry on reporting from Wuhan for as long as I am still alive."

    "If I'm not afraid to die, why would I fear the Communist Party?"
     
    If Xi really wanted to know, he would have sentenced the people who kept this information from him to multi-decade prison terms or even execution while lavishing awards on whistleblowers. Given that this pandemic has taken relations with the US and much of the world to multi-decade lows, he would be justified in simply having his designated scapegoats shot. Instead, the people risking all to inform the public are being held incommunicado, perhaps pending a quiet, unannounced execution.
    , @Johann Ricke
    @Jack D

    Given the fairly mild punishments meted out to officials for supposedly keeping information from Xi, vs the draconian ones imposed on people who tried to get the word out, it's a stretch to believe that he wants to know what is really happening out there. Some online Chinese commenters have expressed reservations about the news they are being fed:


    Many Chinese netizens expressed worries that the dishonesty of the Chinese officials would sooner or later lead to a catastrophic outbreak.

    If officials hide all the domestic cases and only report imported cases, on the days when there are no imported cases, they won’t have any reason to place the close contacts of domestic cases under quarantine or medical observation. Therefore, such people are freely mingling and pose a danger to everyone they come in contact with, they said.

    Moreover, locals will let down their guard because the city’s pandemic reports say there are no domestic cases.

    “How is it possible that there are zero domestic cases when the same virus is spreading like wildfire in foreign countries?” a netizen who is a Ph.D. student at Peking University asked.

    The recent outbreak in Ruili city in southwestern Yunnan Province might be a case in point.

    Ruili is a small city bordering Burma, with a population of approximately 300,000, and its main industries are foreign trade and tourism. It is well-known for its jewelry wholesale market, as a large number of residents engage in selling and processing jade imported from Burma.

    Chinese authorities locked down Ruili on Sept. 14, after the city reported two new cases of the CCP virus. Local officials claimed that there had been no domestic cases of CCP virus infections for months and the two cases confirmed on Sept. 13 were “imported” from Burma, as the patients had returned to Ruili by illegally crossing the Burma-Yunnan border.

    Yunnan News reported that Deputy Governor Ruan Chengfa inspected Ruili’s makeshift hospital, known in China as a “fangcang” hospital, on Sept. 14. Fangcang hospitals are used to isolate patients exhibiting only mild symptoms; they are not set up for treatment. Based on photos of the hospital provided by Yunnan News, it can house hundreds of patients.

    Netizens believe that placing a city under lockdown seems to be a drastic measure if there are only two confirmed cases. In addition, the fact that a fangcang hospital was completed the day after authorities identified new cases suggests that authorities are hiding the true situation—just as they did in early January in Wuhan.

    By Sept. 19, the city proudly announced that it tested all 280,000 residents, and all were negative. However, the Yunnan governor declared on the same day that the entire Yunnan Province is now in a “wartime state,” even though no additional new domestic cases have been reported in the province to date.

    These confusing messages led to heated discussions on the internet. Some warned others that the governor’s use of “wartime state” is telling everyone the outbreak is very serious; while others, who plan to vacation in Yunnan in October, are reluctant to give up their travel plans.
     
    Note that that big months for flu-related deaths are November thru February. Between scapegoating and coverups, we'll see how well China does through this year's flu season.
  223. @Jack D
    @Johann Ricke


    Xi’s methods are presumably less draconian, but getting busted down a few ranks is probably enough motivation not to forward data that would anyhow promptly be deposited into the circular filing cabinet.
     
    The virus spread for several weeks because, while the China central government had put into place a reporting system for unknown infections, the local authorities subverted the system and would not let the local doctors report the epidemic to Beijing, even having the police threaten them.

    Replies: @Johann Ricke, @Johann Ricke, @Johann Ricke

    The virus spread for several weeks because, while the China central government had put into place a reporting system for unknown infections, the local authorities subverted the system and would not let the local doctors report the epidemic to Beijing, even having the police threaten them.

    This has been the standard issue excuse for royal ineptness/indifference literally since anyone started keeping count. If only the Tsar knew. Meanwhile, we have a high-ranking Party official sentenced to almost 2 decades in prison for giving Xi a hard time because he doesn’t want to hear bad news.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/22/asia/china-ren-zhiqiang-xi-jinping-intl-hnk/index.html

    Xi is emperor in all but name. If he wants to know, he can find out. Nobody can hold information back from him. He can literally have the people doing this killed. His whole narrative is three card monte for the masses. And the foreign media, which is all too glad to contrast the calm efficiency of this Oriental potentate with the incompetence of Orange Hitler. All this despite the fact that Trump has a tiny fraction of the authority over the US that Xi holds over the Chinese population, including, quite literally, the power of life and death.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Johann Ricke

    "If only the Tsar knew." - Became "If only Comrade Stalin knew" for communists imprisoned in Gulag camps.

  224. @utu
    @Mr. Anon

    "38% filtration efficiency, if you wrap a nylon stocking around your cloth mask" - No, look at Fig. 5. With nylon stocking the removal rate is about 70% (grey bars) while w/o nylon stocking it is above 30% (blue bars).

    "If the filtration efficiency at 0.04 microns is 38%, it’s probably considerably lower at 0.3 [ microns]" - I think you got it wrong. It would be other way around. The value 0.04 is nominal value of their particle generator. The measured the removal rate for particles "in size range 0.02 to >1 μm".

    "Like I said – poor studies." - It is a decent study. They could have shown the particle size distribution, though.

    While Medical/Dental mask are twice as good in particle removal rate than for cloth masks (w/o nylon) still the over 30% removal rate can do the trick when almost everybody wears the mask. The test does not tell how much virus shedding is reduced by wearing mask by those who are infected but obviously it must be much bigger effect than as a protective device particularly for the coughing and sneezing bursts that introduce humongous amount of particles and droplets into the environment. Furthermore lower viral load may mean lower chance of infection and milder course of disease and possibly as some speculate may lead to some form of variolation.

    Facial Masking for Covid-19 — Potential for “Variolation” as We Await a Vaccine
    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2026913

    Perhaps the much lower mortality in the 2nd wave can be partly due to this "Variolation" effect.

    The public policy should recommend/require usage of Surgical/Medical/Dental masks which are cheap. The reason cloth masks were allowed was better something than nothing in the US which could not produce/import enough medical masks. Otoh Taiwan was producing 17 million masks daily for population of about 20 millions.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    “38% filtration efficiency, if you wrap a nylon stocking around your cloth mask” – No, look at Fig. 5. With nylon stocking the removal rate is about 70% (grey bars) while w/o nylon stocking it is above 30% (blue bars).

    I quoted that from their abstract. Not my problem if they got their abstract wrong.

    “If the filtration efficiency at 0.04 microns is 38%, it’s probably considerably lower at 0.3 [ microns]” – I think you got it wrong. It would be other way around. The value 0.04 is nominal value of their particle generator. The measured the removal rate for particles “in size range 0.02 to >1 μm”.

    No, particles of about 0.3 micron size are generally the hardest to filter:

    https://multimedia.3m.com/mws/media/410364O/filtration-mechanisms-for-particulate-respirators.pdf

    That’s why respirators are rated at that size. N95 masks are pretty good (at least 95% filtration at 0.3 microns). Quoting a filtration efficiency at essentially 0.04 microns doesn’t permit any comparison with N95 masks. If the authors had researched the matter a little, they might have found that out.

    “Like I said – poor studies.” – It is a decent study. They could have shown the particle size distribution, though.

    No, it’s a poor study, for the reasons I gave above.

    Perhaps the much lower mortality in the 2nd wave can be partly due to this “Variolation” effect.

    Or perhaps it’s due to a majority of the people who were likely to die from it already having died.

    The public policy should recommend/require usage of Surgical/Medical/Dental masks which are cheap. The reason cloth masks were allowed was better something than nothing in the US which could not produce/import enough medical masks. Otoh Taiwan was producing 17 million masks daily for population of about 20 millions.

    No, public policy should be to not assume powers that the government does not and ought not to have. It does not have the right to tell people to wear masks just because it makes you feel better. You want to wear a mask? Knock yourself out. The personal concerns of nervous people are not sufficient justification to order people to muzzle themselves.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Mr. Anon

    Shouldn't we have a gazillion N95 masks for sale by now?

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    , @utu
    @Mr. Anon

    "I quoted that from their abstract." - No, you did not. Their abstract did not imply that 38% was for masks with a nylon stocking. They mention efficiency improvements due to nylon stocking in the next sentence.

    "Not my problem if they got their abstract wrong." - You jump to wrong conclusion and then you display an attitude.


    No, particles of about 0.3 micron size are generally the hardest to filter:

    https://multimedia.3m.com/mws/media/410364O/filtration-mechanisms-for-particulate-respirators.pdf
     

    The Figure 2: Filter Efficiency vs. Particle Size is just for illustration purpose and it does not apply to any filtration in particular and it is not based on empirical data but on very simple theoretical model that took into account several physical mechanism to illustrate different filtration regimes . The Figure 2 is replicated from the Figure 1 in this paper:

    Lee, KW and BYH Liu. On the Minimum Efficiency and the Most Penetrating Particle Size for Fibrous Filters. Air Pollution Control Association Journal 30(4): 337-381, 1980
     
    where it has a caption: Schematic filter efficiency illustrating the different filtration regimes. 'Schematic" is the key word. The position of the minimum filter efficiency depends on many factors that Liu and Lin analyze and compare with empirical data. It depends on fiber diameter, velocity, solidity... See Figs. 5,6, 7, 8 in Lee and Liu. The range of the position of the minimum is very wide. The 0.3 micron was established as industry standard by some bureaucrats based not on actually data but on an illustration. It is arbitrary and does not reflect the reality. The 0.3 micron standard is a bureaucratic fiction. So what is the size of most penetrating particles for N95 masks? It depends on manufacturers. It can be 0.2 or lower. But it is not measured for very small particles below 100 nm where actually it can be even worse. See Figure 2 in:

    Performance of N95 Respirators: Filtration Efficiency for Airborne Microbial and Inert Particles, Yinge Qian et al. American Industrial Hygiene Association Journal 59:128–132 (1998)
     
    "Quoting a filtration efficiency at essentially 0.04 microns doesn’t permit any comparison with N95 masks." - The paper fails to show the PSD (particle size distribution). But if the PSD was relatively flat which most likely it was because the nominal geometric standard deviation was 2.2 micron (" based on instrument specifications") then it really is not that important because the dip in the filtration efficiency curve is shallow and broad and for some masks there is no dips at all as the next paper shows.

    Here is a paper where the PSD was measured with high resolution and in wide range (10 nm and 6 micron) for various fabric masks and N96 and surgical masks.


    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7185834/
    Aerosol Filtration Efficiency of Common Fabrics Used in Respiratory Cloth Masks, ACS Nano. 2020 Apr 24
     
    See Figure 4 where Cotton/Flannel mask outperforms the N95 mask. One reason for it is the "o.3 micron cut-off" industrial standard:

    "These cloth hybrids are slightly inferior to the N95 mask above 300 nm, but superior for particles smaller than 300 nm. The N95 respirators are designed and engineered to capture more than 95% of the particles that are above 300 nm and therefore, their underperformance in filtering particles below 300 nm is not surprising."
     
    So if you are concerned with filtering the free floating Covid-19 virus (100 nm diameter) you are better off with the Cotton/Flannel mask than the N95 mask because of the industry standard of 0.3 micron cut-off that you are so obsessing about here, though you and I know that for rhetorical reasons only, meaning not in a good faith.

    The biggest problem of masks is "the gap".


    Our studies also imply that gaps (as caused by an improper fit of the mask) can result in over a 60% decrease in the filtration efficiency, implying the need for future cloth mask design studies to take into account issues of “fit” and leakage, while allowing the exhaled air to vent efficiently.
     
    N95 mask also have a gap problem. Only 34% efficiency for 300nm. Surgical masks are better than N95 when you allow for a gap (probably because they have large surface area) (see Table 1).

    Finally about your libertarian credo:


    "No, public policy should be to not assume powers that the government does not and ought not to have. It does not have the right to tell people to wear masks... "
     
    So why do you argue about mask efficiency? That should not matter for you, righ? "...the government does not and ought not to..." Case closed. But you do argue and I would say with your beliefs you fall into the pseudo-scientific practice where you collect only the data that undermine the case when "...the government does and ought to..." because it goes against your credo.

    You definitively fall into the "social skeptics" category that I brought up in my #217 comment while not really thinking of you to which you responded and put me in a category of "totalitarian lickspittles". Now I can say you are a perfect example of "social skeptic" a according to:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/how-many-covid-fatalities-died-in-the-prime-of-their-careers/#comment-4183841

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

  225. @utu
    @utu

    Ontario Civil Liberties Association (OCLA) is a libertarian outfit. They will oppose mandatory mask wearing policy on their principle. Whatever papers and data they collect they can't be taken too seriously. Libertarians fit the definition of "social skeptics" introduced on The Ethical Skeptic blog:


    https://theethicalskeptic.com/2012/05/01/what-is-social-skepticism/

    "The social skeptic is a catalyseur, a third party exploitation specialist fomenting conflict between the public and science (see footnote article and its excerpt on right).1 They are not scientists, nor do they bear experience in science. They do not pursue truth in any specific matter; rather, they seek to twist the principles of skepticism such that they just happen to rule out alternatives and ideas which threaten the self-identifying skeptic. They bolster their confidence in this corrupted approach through the reassuring power of their club, cronies and figurehead celebrities. A cabal which only functions to promote conflict between science and its at-risk stakeholders. They presume to tender preferred final conclusions in lieu of science, without having to account under any semblance of scientific rigor, save for at most skepticism itself. They afford no method of peer review, eschew any assessment of entailed risk or the harm they serve to cause to both persons and science; yet promote stacks of highly questionable conclusivity..."

    "Instead of investigators involved in curious inquiry, they interpret the purpose of skepticism to be promoting polarized controversialism. They seek compensation and salve for some past emotional offense, through the process of belittling others and being hailed by their club for how clever they can appear or how many of the enemy they can harm. Their legacy is often iatrogenic – one for which they do not bear even an inkling of guilt, because they are convinced that they represent reason and science. Therefore, they are justified in ignoring their deeper stultification on what is considered truth. They ‘establish’ their method correctness by armchair or social debunking ghosts, homeopathy, Bigfoot and UFO’s and then ply this false-method (humbly deeming it as a mechanism of ‘best evidence’) credibility into directing what everyone else can do with their body, doctor, voting, research, thoughts, nation, open-mind, rights, political choices, faith choice and their health. They could care less about the topic under discussion; their focus is upon you. "

    "Fake and celebrity skeptics generally define skepticism as a set of various self-licensed forms of scoffing, doubt, disposition promulgation, comprehensive denial of knowledge (de rigueur bullshit to appear academic in pedigree), criticism targeting only disdained objects or systematic culling of ‘wrong’ evidence – all under the authority of skeptics or scientists (they do not possess mere mortal opinion). Generally any weaponized philosophy which allows them to dismiss that which threatens them, and keep that specific conclusion which they want to enforce on you. The goal being to issue a final disposition as quickly and as devastatingly as possible. In other words the exact opposite of skepticism. "
     
    So what kind of science do we get from libertarian fake skeptics and who do they work for? They argue that safety regulation bring 'risk compensation effect' that undermine the safety. Here is an example from 1970s against the seat belts:

    The Effects of Automobile Safety Regulation, Sam Peltzman, Journal of Political Economy
    Vol. 83, No. 4 (Aug., 1975), pp. 677-726

    “Technological studies imply that annual highway deaths would be 20 percent greater without legally mandated installation of various safety devices on automobiles. However, this literature ignores offsetting effects of nonregulatory demand for safety and driver response to the devices. This article indicates that these offsets are virtually complete, so that regulation has not decreased highway deaths.”
     
    And this from few months ago by some hacks from a business schools in UK against the masks:

    Risk compensation during COVID-19: The impact of face mask usage on social distancing
    https://osf.io/rb8he/
     

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    So what kind of science do we get from libertarian fake skeptics and who do they work for?

    What kind of science do we get from totalitarian lickspittles? And whom do you work for?

  226. @Jack D
    @Mr. Anon


    Just as degree of lockdown is uncorrelated with the overall death-rate (in other words – lockdowns didn’t work).
     
    Lockdowns and mask wearing have worked in China (they are basically down to zero - 7 cases/day for a billion+ people) because they still have a serious government while we live in Clown World where even the laws against looting and arson are no longer enforced, let along mask wearing and congregating. A lot of Americans approach the lockdown and mask wearing the way some blacks approach submitting to arrest - "I'll comply with the law if I feel like it". And we have the results to show for it.

    Now it's great that Americans have freedom, even freedom to violate the law and that we don't have massive concentration camps out in the desert where we are forced to assemble cheap electronics for the export market. But freedom isn't free - if we err on the side of freedom, there's a price to be paid for those errors.

    Replies: @Johann Ricke, @Mr. Anon, @Jonathan Mason

    A lot of Americans approach the lockdown and mask wearing the way some blacks approach submitting to arrest – “I’ll comply with the law if I feel like it”. And we have the results to show for it.

    There is no law. There are edicts issued by governors and mayors. None of these policies were ever debated or discussed in public. Had you ever even heard the term “social distancing” prior to last March?

    If your argument is – it works when tyrannical governments like that in China do it, then my answer to you would be – go live in China then.

    But freedom isn’t free – if we err on the side of freedom, there’s a price to be paid for those errors.

    The price to be paid is a death toll (maybe) in line with that of past pandemics like the Asian Flu.

    There is a price to be paid for normalizing tyranny too.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Mr. Anon

    Thank you, Mr. Anon! You just saved me from typing very much the same thing. Jack D has been very reasonable in general regarding this Kung Flu Panic-Fest, along with most everything else he writes about. However, yes, that logic comparing people who understand what tyranny is about to black people who won't comply with Constitutional laws is bogus.

    98& of black people (Thomas Sowell is in the 2%) wouldn't know the Constitution if it came up and bit them on the ass. Maybe only 10% of white Americans really understand why long-term emergency orders and edicts are wrong, but a lot more than that kind of understand the concept. Contrary to what the mask scolds will tell us in comments here, it's not all about US. It's about the point of it, and the mandatory stupidity, not about the inconvenience. (That's why when I do put one on to go to the store, I make it a point to pull out a rolled up one that's been in my pocket since last month. I like to demo how stupid the whole thing is.)

  227. @Mr. Anon
    @utu


    “38% filtration efficiency, if you wrap a nylon stocking around your cloth mask” – No, look at Fig. 5. With nylon stocking the removal rate is about 70% (grey bars) while w/o nylon stocking it is above 30% (blue bars).
     
    I quoted that from their abstract. Not my problem if they got their abstract wrong.

    “If the filtration efficiency at 0.04 microns is 38%, it’s probably considerably lower at 0.3 [ microns]” – I think you got it wrong. It would be other way around. The value 0.04 is nominal value of their particle generator. The measured the removal rate for particles “in size range 0.02 to >1 μm”.
     
    No, particles of about 0.3 micron size are generally the hardest to filter:

    https://multimedia.3m.com/mws/media/410364O/filtration-mechanisms-for-particulate-respirators.pdf

    That's why respirators are rated at that size. N95 masks are pretty good (at least 95% filtration at 0.3 microns). Quoting a filtration efficiency at essentially 0.04 microns doesn't permit any comparison with N95 masks. If the authors had researched the matter a little, they might have found that out.

    “Like I said – poor studies.” – It is a decent study. They could have shown the particle size distribution, though.
     
    No, it's a poor study, for the reasons I gave above.

    Perhaps the much lower mortality in the 2nd wave can be partly due to this “Variolation” effect.
     
    Or perhaps it's due to a majority of the people who were likely to die from it already having died.

    The public policy should recommend/require usage of Surgical/Medical/Dental masks which are cheap. The reason cloth masks were allowed was better something than nothing in the US which could not produce/import enough medical masks. Otoh Taiwan was producing 17 million masks daily for population of about 20 millions.
     
    No, public policy should be to not assume powers that the government does not and ought not to have. It does not have the right to tell people to wear masks just because it makes you feel better. You want to wear a mask? Knock yourself out. The personal concerns of nervous people are not sufficient justification to order people to muzzle themselves.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @utu

    Shouldn’t we have a gazillion N95 masks for sale by now?

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @Steve Sailer


    Shouldn’t we have a gazillion N95 masks for sale by now?
     
    N95 masks really do offer some protection if used properly. I have no objection to people using them to protect themselves or others as they see fit. I object to the government arbitrarily mandating things, especially things that have little-to-no value.

    Pre COVID, you could buy a box of forty N95 masks made by 3M for about $18 at Home Depot. Now such masks can't be found at Home Depot, and a box of twenty 3M N95 masks is going for as much as $170 online. You can buy KN95 masks from China for less, allthough they're still not cheap. And, being from China, who knows how good they are, or whether they weren't previously used by tuberculosis patients or nuclear power-plant workers.
  228. @Jack D
    @Johann Ricke


    Xi’s methods are presumably less draconian, but getting busted down a few ranks is probably enough motivation not to forward data that would anyhow promptly be deposited into the circular filing cabinet.
     
    The virus spread for several weeks because, while the China central government had put into place a reporting system for unknown infections, the local authorities subverted the system and would not let the local doctors report the epidemic to Beijing, even having the police threaten them.

    Replies: @Johann Ricke, @Johann Ricke, @Johann Ricke

    Here’s an article on a number of people who risked their welfare to report on what was happening in China with respect to the pandemic:

    Chinese lawyer-turned-citizen journalist Chen Qiushi, who was detained after reporting from the front line of the coronavirus epidemic in the central city of Wuhan, remains “under the supervision” of the authorities, a close friend has said.

    Chen’s friend and mixed martial arts (MMA) star Xu Xiaodong said via a statement on YouTube that Chen is in good health, but has yet to return home.

    “[Chen] Qiushi is still under the supervision of a certain agency and hasn’t come home yet,” Xu said.

    “According to sources in China, Hong Kong and Japan, he has no money … and never incited anyone [to subversion],” Xu said. “He has never been in touch with any opposition groups overseas.”

    “For the time being, there will be no prosecution or trial.”

    Taiwan’s Central News Agency also quoted friends of Chen’s as saying he remains under incommunicado detention.

    Chen was taken away by police on Feb. 6 after he started livestreaming from hospitals in Wuhan.

    Similar treatment was meted out to rights activist and citizen journalist Fang Bin, who was detained on Feb. 9, and to a former anchor with state broadcaster CCTV, Li Zehua, who was detained on Feb. 26.

    One of Chen’s last broadcasts was from the newly built prefabricated hospital in Wuhan, which he had reached on a borrowed electric motor scooter, and which he described as “not fit to house infectious disease patients, as it was obviously designed to be a battlefield hospital.”

    ‘I will carry on reporting’

    In a video posted about the events of Jan. 29, Chen had already expressed concerns that the authorities were on his trail.

    “I have the coronavirus in my face, and the entire law enforcement system of China on my tail,” he said. “But I will carry on reporting from Wuhan for as long as I am still alive.”

    “If I’m not afraid to die, why would I fear the Communist Party?”

    If Xi really wanted to know, he would have sentenced the people who kept this information from him to multi-decade prison terms or even execution while lavishing awards on whistleblowers. Given that this pandemic has taken relations with the US and much of the world to multi-decade lows, he would be justified in simply having his designated scapegoats shot. Instead, the people risking all to inform the public are being held incommunicado, perhaps pending a quiet, unannounced execution.

  229. @Jack D
    @Johann Ricke


    Xi’s methods are presumably less draconian, but getting busted down a few ranks is probably enough motivation not to forward data that would anyhow promptly be deposited into the circular filing cabinet.
     
    The virus spread for several weeks because, while the China central government had put into place a reporting system for unknown infections, the local authorities subverted the system and would not let the local doctors report the epidemic to Beijing, even having the police threaten them.

    Replies: @Johann Ricke, @Johann Ricke, @Johann Ricke

    Given the fairly mild punishments meted out to officials for supposedly keeping information from Xi, vs the draconian ones imposed on people who tried to get the word out, it’s a stretch to believe that he wants to know what is really happening out there. Some online Chinese commenters have expressed reservations about the news they are being fed:

    Many Chinese netizens expressed worries that the dishonesty of the Chinese officials would sooner or later lead to a catastrophic outbreak.

    If officials hide all the domestic cases and only report imported cases, on the days when there are no imported cases, they won’t have any reason to place the close contacts of domestic cases under quarantine or medical observation. Therefore, such people are freely mingling and pose a danger to everyone they come in contact with, they said.

    Moreover, locals will let down their guard because the city’s pandemic reports say there are no domestic cases.

    “How is it possible that there are zero domestic cases when the same virus is spreading like wildfire in foreign countries?” a netizen who is a Ph.D. student at Peking University asked.

    The recent outbreak in Ruili city in southwestern Yunnan Province might be a case in point.

    Ruili is a small city bordering Burma, with a population of approximately 300,000, and its main industries are foreign trade and tourism. It is well-known for its jewelry wholesale market, as a large number of residents engage in selling and processing jade imported from Burma.

    Chinese authorities locked down Ruili on Sept. 14, after the city reported two new cases of the CCP virus. Local officials claimed that there had been no domestic cases of CCP virus infections for months and the two cases confirmed on Sept. 13 were “imported” from Burma, as the patients had returned to Ruili by illegally crossing the Burma-Yunnan border.

    Yunnan News reported that Deputy Governor Ruan Chengfa inspected Ruili’s makeshift hospital, known in China as a “fangcang” hospital, on Sept. 14. Fangcang hospitals are used to isolate patients exhibiting only mild symptoms; they are not set up for treatment. Based on photos of the hospital provided by Yunnan News, it can house hundreds of patients.

    Netizens believe that placing a city under lockdown seems to be a drastic measure if there are only two confirmed cases. In addition, the fact that a fangcang hospital was completed the day after authorities identified new cases suggests that authorities are hiding the true situation—just as they did in early January in Wuhan.

    By Sept. 19, the city proudly announced that it tested all 280,000 residents, and all were negative. However, the Yunnan governor declared on the same day that the entire Yunnan Province is now in a “wartime state,” even though no additional new domestic cases have been reported in the province to date.

    These confusing messages led to heated discussions on the internet. Some warned others that the governor’s use of “wartime state” is telling everyone the outbreak is very serious; while others, who plan to vacation in Yunnan in October, are reluctant to give up their travel plans.

    Note that that big months for flu-related deaths are November thru February. Between scapegoating and coverups, we’ll see how well China does through this year’s flu season.

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman
  230. @Steve Sailer
    @Mr. Anon

    Shouldn't we have a gazillion N95 masks for sale by now?

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    Shouldn’t we have a gazillion N95 masks for sale by now?

    N95 masks really do offer some protection if used properly. I have no objection to people using them to protect themselves or others as they see fit. I object to the government arbitrarily mandating things, especially things that have little-to-no value.

    Pre COVID, you could buy a box of forty N95 masks made by 3M for about $18 at Home Depot. Now such masks can’t be found at Home Depot, and a box of twenty 3M N95 masks is going for as much as $170 online. You can buy KN95 masks from China for less, allthough they’re still not cheap. And, being from China, who knows how good they are, or whether they weren’t previously used by tuberculosis patients or nuclear power-plant workers.

  231. @Jack D
    @Mr. Anon


    Just as degree of lockdown is uncorrelated with the overall death-rate (in other words – lockdowns didn’t work).
     
    Lockdowns and mask wearing have worked in China (they are basically down to zero - 7 cases/day for a billion+ people) because they still have a serious government while we live in Clown World where even the laws against looting and arson are no longer enforced, let along mask wearing and congregating. A lot of Americans approach the lockdown and mask wearing the way some blacks approach submitting to arrest - "I'll comply with the law if I feel like it". And we have the results to show for it.

    Now it's great that Americans have freedom, even freedom to violate the law and that we don't have massive concentration camps out in the desert where we are forced to assemble cheap electronics for the export market. But freedom isn't free - if we err on the side of freedom, there's a price to be paid for those errors.

    Replies: @Johann Ricke, @Mr. Anon, @Jonathan Mason

    I agree. At my local Walmart there are signs posted saying that masks are required to enter, and yet about half the customers do not comply.

    There is a “one way” system on most aisles, but again most people completely ignore that attempt to enforce social distancing.

    Never mind if it is the law, it is just a matter of simple courtesy to comply with requests on someone else’s property, like removing your shoes in someone’s house if requested.

    I was in a small produce store yesterday and there was a man there ranting about how he did not care if he went overseas and killed innocent people, because he was defending his country and its flag.

    He was not wearing a mask as he ranted (I was) and presumably did not care if he killed people with Corona virus either, as long as they were not card-carrying flag wavers.

    Incidentally, is the US the only nation in the world where people make war overseas to kill people to defend their flag, and the only country where the national flag is primarily a Memorial Day shibboleth whose main function is to act as a reminder people of military deaths before sports events? Is this in the Constitution?

    In most other countries the national flag is just a ceremonial tool for official functions, and has little or no connection with honoring the dead.

    Olympic games medal ceremonies where national anthems are played and flags displayed have no connection with honoring the dead.

    This sounds irrelevant, but I have noticed that people who don’t wear masks in supermarkets often have flags displayed on their vehicle, so perhaps it is just that they don’t understand cause and effect very well, leading them to make poor decisions.

  232. @Achmed E. Newman
    @ScarletNumber

    Mr. Number, seriously, why do you take it so badly when people tell you they don't know or care about the people from People magazine or people or ANYTHING else on TV? Do you work in that business?

    Wait for it...



    • Troll: @ScarletNumber

    Replies: @ScarletNumber

    I don’t take it badly, but bragging about ignorance is something black people do.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @ScarletNumber

    It's not ignorance. It takes some knowledge and wisdom to know when you're being lied to or at least having your limited time in this world wasted and to make a decision to spend your time and money elsewhere.

  233. @Travis
    @utu

    The antibodies only can be detected for a month. The first week of testing found 61% of New Yorkers had antibodies, the second week found 44% had antibodies, the third week 33% had antibodies

    The Japanese study is one of many which demonstrate that the antibodies are only detectable for about a month, which is the reason the NYC antibody testing results indicate the numbers of New Yorkers with antibodies fell to 20% because only 20% have long lasting antibodies which can be detected after 30 days.

    https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1305215126379917314

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco, @utu

    Even if the infection rate in NYC was 40% as you insist then IFR would be 0.65% which is over 10 times higher than 0.05% that you claimed. But I do not accept the 40% number.

    I do not think that interpretations provided by you on the antibody tests graph
    https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-testing.page
    are correct. One would need to know more about the tests that were used, testing procedure and sampling. First two tests in April had relatively small sample. How representative were the samples? I am not aware of any publication using the data.

    The Tokyo paper is interesting indeed. The sample is small and not necessarily representative: subjects worked for the same company in several offices in Tokyo. The reversal rate was 12%. While the estimate of IFR for Tokyo are extremely low, orders of magnitude lower than in other countries, the result show what was observed in other countries that IFR of the 2nd wave is significantly lower than in the first wave. But they can only speculate why IFR is that low in Tokyo.

    During the second surge, only 31 fatal cases (observed between June 22 and August 25) were reported in Tokyo, while the first surge (March 20 to May 20) claimed 244 lives. Assuming an infection rate of 40 % within the Tokyo urban population (14 million), the infection fatality rate (IFR) during this period could potentially be as low as 0.0006%, which is as low as the lowest IFR observed among teens in Switzerland4. Future studies may consider evaluating whether lifestyle/habits, viral strain, the widespread use of masks, and/or host factors such as immunological memory are responsible for the observed low fatality.

    The paper has not been reviewed for publication yet.

    • Replies: @Travis
    @utu

    I suspect closer to 70% of New Yorkers were infected back in March. the NYC data confirms that 61% of those tested in April had CV antibodies on April 11. Link is below
    https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-testing.page

    The antibody tests done in April indicate 61% of NYC tested had CV antibodies on April 11
    In addition 5% of the those infected never develop antibodies and the detectable amount of antibodies drops quickly , vanishing completely for most people in 30 days. So the graph demonstrates what we would expect if 70% of New Yorkers were infected with coronavirus by April.

    on April 18 44% of New Yorkers tested had the antibodies, confirming that the antibodies fade rapidly , especially from asymptomatic people. The following week just 34% had the antibodies, further confirming that the antibodies do not last for most people. We should expect the number of New Yorkers with antibodies to fall quickly after May 1 , since the epidemic peaked in early April. Also the antibody tests were given to healthy people, those who were sick were quarantined at home during the antibody testing in April and May.

    25% of the New Yorkers took the antibody test from April 5 to Septmber. 24% of those tested over this 6 month period had the antibodies, yet the percentage with the antibodies keep falling, as the antibodies are no longer detected in the blood of most COVID survivors 3 months after infection.

    Most of them no longer have the antibodies, as they fade rapidly so we should expect that if 70% had CV at one point many of them would not have the antibodies 3 months later when they were finally tested. We know several people who were infected with CV and when they were tested for the antibodies they had no antibodies...because the antibodies vanish after a few weeks

    Studies Report Rapid Loss of COVID-19 Antibodies
    https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/studies-report-rapid-loss-of-covid-19-antibodies-67650
    studies published show patients lose their IgG antibodies—the virus-specific, slower-forming antibodies associated with long-term immunity—within weeks after recovery. With COVID-19, most people who become infected do produce antibodies, and even small amounts can still neutralize the virus in vitro, according to earlier work. These latest studies could not determine if a lack of antibodies leaves people at risk of reinfection.

    Replies: @utu

  234. @Johann Ricke
    @Jack D


    The virus spread for several weeks because, while the China central government had put into place a reporting system for unknown infections, the local authorities subverted the system and would not let the local doctors report the epidemic to Beijing, even having the police threaten them.
     
    This has been the standard issue excuse for royal ineptness/indifference literally since anyone started keeping count. If only the Tsar knew. Meanwhile, we have a high-ranking Party official sentenced to almost 2 decades in prison for giving Xi a hard time because he doesn't want to hear bad news.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/22/asia/china-ren-zhiqiang-xi-jinping-intl-hnk/index.html

    Xi is emperor in all but name. If he wants to know, he can find out. Nobody can hold information back from him. He can literally have the people doing this killed. His whole narrative is three card monte for the masses. And the foreign media, which is all too glad to contrast the calm efficiency of this Oriental potentate with the incompetence of Orange Hitler. All this despite the fact that Trump has a tiny fraction of the authority over the US that Xi holds over the Chinese population, including, quite literally, the power of life and death.

    Replies: @utu

    “If only the Tsar knew.” – Became “If only Comrade Stalin knew” for communists imprisoned in Gulag camps.

  235. @ScarletNumber
    @Achmed E. Newman

    I don't take it badly, but bragging about ignorance is something black people do.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    It’s not ignorance. It takes some knowledge and wisdom to know when you’re being lied to or at least having your limited time in this world wasted and to make a decision to spend your time and money elsewhere.

  236. @Mr. Anon
    @Jack D


    A lot of Americans approach the lockdown and mask wearing the way some blacks approach submitting to arrest – “I’ll comply with the law if I feel like it”. And we have the results to show for it.
     
    There is no law. There are edicts issued by governors and mayors. None of these policies were ever debated or discussed in public. Had you ever even heard the term "social distancing" prior to last March?

    If your argument is - it works when tyrannical governments like that in China do it, then my answer to you would be - go live in China then.


    But freedom isn’t free – if we err on the side of freedom, there’s a price to be paid for those errors.
     
    The price to be paid is a death toll (maybe) in line with that of past pandemics like the Asian Flu.

    There is a price to be paid for normalizing tyranny too.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    Thank you, Mr. Anon! You just saved me from typing very much the same thing. Jack D has been very reasonable in general regarding this Kung Flu Panic-Fest, along with most everything else he writes about. However, yes, that logic comparing people who understand what tyranny is about to black people who won’t comply with Constitutional laws is bogus.

    98& of black people (Thomas Sowell is in the 2%) wouldn’t know the Constitution if it came up and bit them on the ass. Maybe only 10% of white Americans really understand why long-term emergency orders and edicts are wrong, but a lot more than that kind of understand the concept. Contrary to what the mask scolds will tell us in comments here, it’s not all about US. It’s about the point of it, and the mandatory stupidity, not about the inconvenience. (That’s why when I do put one on to go to the store, I make it a point to pull out a rolled up one that’s been in my pocket since last month. I like to demo how stupid the whole thing is.)

  237. @utu
    @Travis

    Even if the infection rate in NYC was 40% as you insist then IFR would be 0.65% which is over 10 times higher than 0.05% that you claimed. But I do not accept the 40% number.

    I do not think that interpretations provided by you on the antibody tests graph
    https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-testing.page
    are correct. One would need to know more about the tests that were used, testing procedure and sampling. First two tests in April had relatively small sample. How representative were the samples? I am not aware of any publication using the data.

    The Tokyo paper is interesting indeed. The sample is small and not necessarily representative: subjects worked for the same company in several offices in Tokyo. The reversal rate was 12%. While the estimate of IFR for Tokyo are extremely low, orders of magnitude lower than in other countries, the result show what was observed in other countries that IFR of the 2nd wave is significantly lower than in the first wave. But they can only speculate why IFR is that low in Tokyo.


    During the second surge, only 31 fatal cases (observed between June 22 and August 25) were reported in Tokyo, while the first surge (March 20 to May 20) claimed 244 lives. Assuming an infection rate of 40 % within the Tokyo urban population (14 million), the infection fatality rate (IFR) during this period could potentially be as low as 0.0006%, which is as low as the lowest IFR observed among teens in Switzerland4. Future studies may consider evaluating whether lifestyle/habits, viral strain, the widespread use of masks, and/or host factors such as immunological memory are responsible for the observed low fatality.
     
    The paper has not been reviewed for publication yet.

    Replies: @Travis

    I suspect closer to 70% of New Yorkers were infected back in March. the NYC data confirms that 61% of those tested in April had CV antibodies on April 11. Link is below
    https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-testing.page

    The antibody tests done in April indicate 61% of NYC tested had CV antibodies on April 11
    In addition 5% of the those infected never develop antibodies and the detectable amount of antibodies drops quickly , vanishing completely for most people in 30 days. So the graph demonstrates what we would expect if 70% of New Yorkers were infected with coronavirus by April.

    on April 18 44% of New Yorkers tested had the antibodies, confirming that the antibodies fade rapidly , especially from asymptomatic people. The following week just 34% had the antibodies, further confirming that the antibodies do not last for most people. We should expect the number of New Yorkers with antibodies to fall quickly after May 1 , since the epidemic peaked in early April. Also the antibody tests were given to healthy people, those who were sick were quarantined at home during the antibody testing in April and May.

    25% of the New Yorkers took the antibody test from April 5 to Septmber. 24% of those tested over this 6 month period had the antibodies, yet the percentage with the antibodies keep falling, as the antibodies are no longer detected in the blood of most COVID survivors 3 months after infection.

    Most of them no longer have the antibodies, as they fade rapidly so we should expect that if 70% had CV at one point many of them would not have the antibodies 3 months later when they were finally tested. We know several people who were infected with CV and when they were tested for the antibodies they had no antibodies…because the antibodies vanish after a few weeks

    Studies Report Rapid Loss of COVID-19 Antibodies
    https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/studies-report-rapid-loss-of-covid-19-antibodies-67650
    studies published show patients lose their IgG antibodies—the virus-specific, slower-forming antibodies associated with long-term immunity—within weeks after recovery. With COVID-19, most people who become infected do produce antibodies, and even small amounts can still neutralize the virus in vitro, according to earlier work. These latest studies could not determine if a lack of antibodies leaves people at risk of reinfection.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Travis

    I got the picture of your belief system and your methodology which is hypothesis driven not giving any consideration to alternative hypotheses and to the quality of data. As long any bit of data you can find supports your hypothesis you accept it. This is what defines pseudo-science. As I said:


    One would need to know more about the tests that were used, testing procedure and sampling. First two tests in April had relatively small sample. How representative were the samples? I am not aware of any publication using the data.
     
    Certainly your bold hypothesis is interesting but most likely it is a total crap. If indeed "70% of New Yorkers were infected back in March" that is probably enough to cross the threshold of herd immunity in NYC we would not have 100k new infections in April and another 100k in May and another 5k-10k deaths in May.

    If 70% were infected by the end of March, as you believe, and then one month later only 32% are antibody positive that would imply over 54% seroreversion rate in 30 days. The Tokyo paper

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.21.20198796v1.full.pdf

    using IgM/IgG test where the same sample was repeatedly tested observed 12% seroreversion in 2 months.

    It is interesting that skeptics of the so called 'official narratives' are not skeptics at all. They are strong believers in an alternative as long as it opposes the 'official narrative' and their 'skepticism' goes out of the window every time they find a bit of data that supports their beliefs. The so called skeptics are in fact the worst kind of doctrinaires.

    Replies: @Travis

  238. @Mr. Anon
    @utu


    “38% filtration efficiency, if you wrap a nylon stocking around your cloth mask” – No, look at Fig. 5. With nylon stocking the removal rate is about 70% (grey bars) while w/o nylon stocking it is above 30% (blue bars).
     
    I quoted that from their abstract. Not my problem if they got their abstract wrong.

    “If the filtration efficiency at 0.04 microns is 38%, it’s probably considerably lower at 0.3 [ microns]” – I think you got it wrong. It would be other way around. The value 0.04 is nominal value of their particle generator. The measured the removal rate for particles “in size range 0.02 to >1 μm”.
     
    No, particles of about 0.3 micron size are generally the hardest to filter:

    https://multimedia.3m.com/mws/media/410364O/filtration-mechanisms-for-particulate-respirators.pdf

    That's why respirators are rated at that size. N95 masks are pretty good (at least 95% filtration at 0.3 microns). Quoting a filtration efficiency at essentially 0.04 microns doesn't permit any comparison with N95 masks. If the authors had researched the matter a little, they might have found that out.

    “Like I said – poor studies.” – It is a decent study. They could have shown the particle size distribution, though.
     
    No, it's a poor study, for the reasons I gave above.

    Perhaps the much lower mortality in the 2nd wave can be partly due to this “Variolation” effect.
     
    Or perhaps it's due to a majority of the people who were likely to die from it already having died.

    The public policy should recommend/require usage of Surgical/Medical/Dental masks which are cheap. The reason cloth masks were allowed was better something than nothing in the US which could not produce/import enough medical masks. Otoh Taiwan was producing 17 million masks daily for population of about 20 millions.
     
    No, public policy should be to not assume powers that the government does not and ought not to have. It does not have the right to tell people to wear masks just because it makes you feel better. You want to wear a mask? Knock yourself out. The personal concerns of nervous people are not sufficient justification to order people to muzzle themselves.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @utu

    “I quoted that from their abstract.” – No, you did not. Their abstract did not imply that 38% was for masks with a nylon stocking. They mention efficiency improvements due to nylon stocking in the next sentence.

    “Not my problem if they got their abstract wrong.” – You jump to wrong conclusion and then you display an attitude.

    No, particles of about 0.3 micron size are generally the hardest to filter:

    https://multimedia.3m.com/mws/media/410364O/filtration-mechanisms-for-particulate-respirators.pdf

    The Figure 2: Filter Efficiency vs. Particle Size is just for illustration purpose and it does not apply to any filtration in particular and it is not based on empirical data but on very simple theoretical model that took into account several physical mechanism to illustrate different filtration regimes . The Figure 2 is replicated from the Figure 1 in this paper:

    Lee, KW and BYH Liu. On the Minimum Efficiency and the Most Penetrating Particle Size for Fibrous Filters. Air Pollution Control Association Journal 30(4): 337-381, 1980

    where it has a caption: Schematic filter efficiency illustrating the different filtration regimes. ‘Schematic” is the key word. The position of the minimum filter efficiency depends on many factors that Liu and Lin analyze and compare with empirical data. It depends on fiber diameter, velocity, solidity… See Figs. 5,6, 7, 8 in Lee and Liu. The range of the position of the minimum is very wide. The 0.3 micron was established as industry standard by some bureaucrats based not on actually data but on an illustration. It is arbitrary and does not reflect the reality. The 0.3 micron standard is a bureaucratic fiction. So what is the size of most penetrating particles for N95 masks? It depends on manufacturers. It can be 0.2 or lower. But it is not measured for very small particles below 100 nm where actually it can be even worse. See Figure 2 in:

    Performance of N95 Respirators: Filtration Efficiency for Airborne Microbial and Inert Particles, Yinge Qian et al. American Industrial Hygiene Association Journal 59:128–132 (1998)

    “Quoting a filtration efficiency at essentially 0.04 microns doesn’t permit any comparison with N95 masks.” – The paper fails to show the PSD (particle size distribution). But if the PSD was relatively flat which most likely it was because the nominal geometric standard deviation was 2.2 micron (” based on instrument specifications”) then it really is not that important because the dip in the filtration efficiency curve is shallow and broad and for some masks there is no dips at all as the next paper shows.

    Here is a paper where the PSD was measured with high resolution and in wide range (10 nm and 6 micron) for various fabric masks and N96 and surgical masks.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7185834/
    Aerosol Filtration Efficiency of Common Fabrics Used in Respiratory Cloth Masks, ACS Nano. 2020 Apr 24

    See Figure 4 where Cotton/Flannel mask outperforms the N95 mask. One reason for it is the “o.3 micron cut-off” industrial standard:

    “These cloth hybrids are slightly inferior to the N95 mask above 300 nm, but superior for particles smaller than 300 nm. The N95 respirators are designed and engineered to capture more than 95% of the particles that are above 300 nm and therefore, their underperformance in filtering particles below 300 nm is not surprising.”

    So if you are concerned with filtering the free floating Covid-19 virus (100 nm diameter) you are better off with the Cotton/Flannel mask than the N95 mask because of the industry standard of 0.3 micron cut-off that you are so obsessing about here, though you and I know that for rhetorical reasons only, meaning not in a good faith.

    The biggest problem of masks is “the gap”.

    Our studies also imply that gaps (as caused by an improper fit of the mask) can result in over a 60% decrease in the filtration efficiency, implying the need for future cloth mask design studies to take into account issues of “fit” and leakage, while allowing the exhaled air to vent efficiently.

    N95 mask also have a gap problem. Only 34% efficiency for 300nm. Surgical masks are better than N95 when you allow for a gap (probably because they have large surface area) (see Table 1).

    Finally about your libertarian credo:

    “No, public policy should be to not assume powers that the government does not and ought not to have. It does not have the right to tell people to wear masks… “

    So why do you argue about mask efficiency? That should not matter for you, righ? “…the government does not and ought not to…” Case closed. But you do argue and I would say with your beliefs you fall into the pseudo-scientific practice where you collect only the data that undermine the case when “…the government does and ought to…” because it goes against your credo.

    You definitively fall into the “social skeptics” category that I brought up in my #217 comment while not really thinking of you to which you responded and put me in a category of “totalitarian lickspittles”. Now I can say you are a perfect example of “social skeptic” a according to:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/how-many-covid-fatalities-died-in-the-prime-of-their-careers/#comment-4183841

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @utu

    The 0.3 micron standard was adopted for a reason. Anyway, you were wholly ignorant of it, just as were the authors of the study you cite.

    The test in the study you cited above doesn't say much about how an actual mask works. Their sample is tightly fitted on to a sample tube. Ever seen a cloth-mask that is tightly sealed on somebody's face? What kind of cloth do they use? And gloth weave gets looser with wear. And, anyway, when looking at studies, I look for ones pre-2020, given how political everything surrounding the topic has become.


    So why do you argue about mask efficiency? That should not matter for you, righ? “…the government does not and ought not to…” Case closed. But you do argue and I would say with your beliefs you fall into the pseudo-scientific practice where you collect only the data that undermine the case when “…the government does and ought to…” because it goes against your credo.
     
    Because facts are important. To some of us anyway.

    You definitively fall into the “social skeptics” category that I brought up in my #217 comment while not really thinking of you to which you responded and put me in a category of “totalitarian lickspittles”. Now I can say you are a perfect example of “social skeptic” a according to:
     
    I really don't care what you think of me. And you do seem to be a totalitarian lickspittle. Or a hysterical panic-monger. Whichever. I don't care. The rest of us have no interest in taking direction from your kind. If you want a society in which the government snaps its fingers and you dance, go live in China.

    Replies: @utu

  239. @utu
    @Mr. Anon

    "I quoted that from their abstract." - No, you did not. Their abstract did not imply that 38% was for masks with a nylon stocking. They mention efficiency improvements due to nylon stocking in the next sentence.

    "Not my problem if they got their abstract wrong." - You jump to wrong conclusion and then you display an attitude.


    No, particles of about 0.3 micron size are generally the hardest to filter:

    https://multimedia.3m.com/mws/media/410364O/filtration-mechanisms-for-particulate-respirators.pdf
     

    The Figure 2: Filter Efficiency vs. Particle Size is just for illustration purpose and it does not apply to any filtration in particular and it is not based on empirical data but on very simple theoretical model that took into account several physical mechanism to illustrate different filtration regimes . The Figure 2 is replicated from the Figure 1 in this paper:

    Lee, KW and BYH Liu. On the Minimum Efficiency and the Most Penetrating Particle Size for Fibrous Filters. Air Pollution Control Association Journal 30(4): 337-381, 1980
     
    where it has a caption: Schematic filter efficiency illustrating the different filtration regimes. 'Schematic" is the key word. The position of the minimum filter efficiency depends on many factors that Liu and Lin analyze and compare with empirical data. It depends on fiber diameter, velocity, solidity... See Figs. 5,6, 7, 8 in Lee and Liu. The range of the position of the minimum is very wide. The 0.3 micron was established as industry standard by some bureaucrats based not on actually data but on an illustration. It is arbitrary and does not reflect the reality. The 0.3 micron standard is a bureaucratic fiction. So what is the size of most penetrating particles for N95 masks? It depends on manufacturers. It can be 0.2 or lower. But it is not measured for very small particles below 100 nm where actually it can be even worse. See Figure 2 in:

    Performance of N95 Respirators: Filtration Efficiency for Airborne Microbial and Inert Particles, Yinge Qian et al. American Industrial Hygiene Association Journal 59:128–132 (1998)
     
    "Quoting a filtration efficiency at essentially 0.04 microns doesn’t permit any comparison with N95 masks." - The paper fails to show the PSD (particle size distribution). But if the PSD was relatively flat which most likely it was because the nominal geometric standard deviation was 2.2 micron (" based on instrument specifications") then it really is not that important because the dip in the filtration efficiency curve is shallow and broad and for some masks there is no dips at all as the next paper shows.

    Here is a paper where the PSD was measured with high resolution and in wide range (10 nm and 6 micron) for various fabric masks and N96 and surgical masks.


    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7185834/
    Aerosol Filtration Efficiency of Common Fabrics Used in Respiratory Cloth Masks, ACS Nano. 2020 Apr 24
     
    See Figure 4 where Cotton/Flannel mask outperforms the N95 mask. One reason for it is the "o.3 micron cut-off" industrial standard:

    "These cloth hybrids are slightly inferior to the N95 mask above 300 nm, but superior for particles smaller than 300 nm. The N95 respirators are designed and engineered to capture more than 95% of the particles that are above 300 nm and therefore, their underperformance in filtering particles below 300 nm is not surprising."
     
    So if you are concerned with filtering the free floating Covid-19 virus (100 nm diameter) you are better off with the Cotton/Flannel mask than the N95 mask because of the industry standard of 0.3 micron cut-off that you are so obsessing about here, though you and I know that for rhetorical reasons only, meaning not in a good faith.

    The biggest problem of masks is "the gap".


    Our studies also imply that gaps (as caused by an improper fit of the mask) can result in over a 60% decrease in the filtration efficiency, implying the need for future cloth mask design studies to take into account issues of “fit” and leakage, while allowing the exhaled air to vent efficiently.
     
    N95 mask also have a gap problem. Only 34% efficiency for 300nm. Surgical masks are better than N95 when you allow for a gap (probably because they have large surface area) (see Table 1).

    Finally about your libertarian credo:


    "No, public policy should be to not assume powers that the government does not and ought not to have. It does not have the right to tell people to wear masks... "
     
    So why do you argue about mask efficiency? That should not matter for you, righ? "...the government does not and ought not to..." Case closed. But you do argue and I would say with your beliefs you fall into the pseudo-scientific practice where you collect only the data that undermine the case when "...the government does and ought to..." because it goes against your credo.

    You definitively fall into the "social skeptics" category that I brought up in my #217 comment while not really thinking of you to which you responded and put me in a category of "totalitarian lickspittles". Now I can say you are a perfect example of "social skeptic" a according to:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/how-many-covid-fatalities-died-in-the-prime-of-their-careers/#comment-4183841

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    The 0.3 micron standard was adopted for a reason. Anyway, you were wholly ignorant of it, just as were the authors of the study you cite.

    The test in the study you cited above doesn’t say much about how an actual mask works. Their sample is tightly fitted on to a sample tube. Ever seen a cloth-mask that is tightly sealed on somebody’s face? What kind of cloth do they use? And gloth weave gets looser with wear. And, anyway, when looking at studies, I look for ones pre-2020, given how political everything surrounding the topic has become.

    So why do you argue about mask efficiency? That should not matter for you, righ? “…the government does not and ought not to…” Case closed. But you do argue and I would say with your beliefs you fall into the pseudo-scientific practice where you collect only the data that undermine the case when “…the government does and ought to…” because it goes against your credo.

    Because facts are important. To some of us anyway.

    You definitively fall into the “social skeptics” category that I brought up in my #217 comment while not really thinking of you to which you responded and put me in a category of “totalitarian lickspittles”. Now I can say you are a perfect example of “social skeptic” a according to:

    I really don’t care what you think of me. And you do seem to be a totalitarian lickspittle. Or a hysterical panic-monger. Whichever. I don’t care. The rest of us have no interest in taking direction from your kind. If you want a society in which the government snaps its fingers and you dance, go live in China.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Mr. Anon


    (1) The 0.3 micron standard was adopted for a reason. Anyway, (2) you were wholly ignorant of it, (3) just as were the authors of the study you cite.
     
    (1). There is always a reason and sometimes one can't tell the difference between the reason and rationalization. The reason was purely theoretical based on a simple model:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6800048/#R3
    In the literature, the NIOSH challenge aerosol is often referred to as “0.3 μm in size”, which technically means the mass median aerodynamic diameter discussed here. The above indicated aerodynamic diameter was selected based upon a most penetrating particle size (MPPS) predicted by single fiber filtration theory of mechanical filters
     
    This is not true that 0.3 μm size particle are the most penetrating in N95 or surgical masks as you can find in papers I gave links to in my previous comments.

    What are NIOSH test regime requirements? See page 607 in 42 CFR:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6800048/#R3

    "The sodium chloride test aerosol shall have a particle size distribution with count median diameter of 0.075 ±0.020 micrometer and a standard geometric deviation not exceeding 1.86."
     
    Where is the 0.3 micrometer? You need to convert to 0.075 count median diameter to mass median aerodynamic diameter (which becomes 347 nm ≈0.3 micrometer) and the standard geometry deviation to range and median of the logarithmic distribution to see how broad is the distribution. Then you get that 95% of particles are within the range 186nm - 645 nm in terms of aerodynamic diameter. This gives you an idea that particle size distribution is not very narrow around 0.3 micrometer but rather broad. Your yapping at the 0.3 micrometer tree was really pointless. But I am not surprised because you do not argue in a good faith. Pretty typical for lolbertarians.

    (3) Were the authors wholly ignorant as you impute? I doubt it but they could be because it did not matter. They followed right procedures and used the particle generator: TSI Particle Generator Model 8026 which is sold to people who do mask tests. The particle size distribution was right.

    PORTACOUNT® Plus Respirator Fit Tester and N95-Companion
    https://www.tsi.com/getmedia/e39e2877-cf0d-43d3-8667-b8041f94df55/PortaCount2980083RevE?ext=.pdf
     
    TSI however is not explicit on particle size specs so I did find this PhD dissertation where the same generator was used and the particle size distribution was measured with Wide Range Aerosol Spectrometer.

    https://etd.ohiolink.edu/!etd.send_file?accession=ucin1535374058309808&disposition=inline

    In Figure 2-3 you can see the PSD curve. Is it close to what NIOSH specifies? I do not know. Depends what diameter is on the abscissa: count diameter, mass diameter or mass aerodynamic diameter? But since TSI sells the generators to people doing N95 mask testing with NaCl particles I assume they know what they are doing.

    (2). You re right I did not know about the 0.3 micrometer issue. I did not have to because I was right pointing you to two articles that did tests of various fabric masks. The 2nd one was better because they measured particle size distribution. The bottom line is that fabric masks are OK and even can be better than the N95 mask for small nm range particles.. One needs to mind "the gap" just like for N95 masks.

    "I look for ones pre-2020, given how political everything surrounding". - I understand your concern. Thousands of people want to jump on the bandwagon of Covid-19. Probably the number of papers in relation to Covid-19 reached above 100,000 by now. There are opportunist doing meaningless paper and then there are people like the hacks from the business school osf.io/rb8he/ who do a disservice to people. But I am sure your lolbertarian heart loved it because it argued that mask could do more harm than good on the account of people engaging in risk "compensation nation."

    Now to the hilarious part and your "Because facts are important. To some of us anyway.". Do not fool yourself that you can overcome your bias. You can tell yourself that you care about facts but you really do not. Only the facts that you can use pushing your ideology. You are a servant of your ideology. You showed both bad attitude and bad faith in this exchange.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

  240. @Travis
    @utu

    I suspect closer to 70% of New Yorkers were infected back in March. the NYC data confirms that 61% of those tested in April had CV antibodies on April 11. Link is below
    https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-testing.page

    The antibody tests done in April indicate 61% of NYC tested had CV antibodies on April 11
    In addition 5% of the those infected never develop antibodies and the detectable amount of antibodies drops quickly , vanishing completely for most people in 30 days. So the graph demonstrates what we would expect if 70% of New Yorkers were infected with coronavirus by April.

    on April 18 44% of New Yorkers tested had the antibodies, confirming that the antibodies fade rapidly , especially from asymptomatic people. The following week just 34% had the antibodies, further confirming that the antibodies do not last for most people. We should expect the number of New Yorkers with antibodies to fall quickly after May 1 , since the epidemic peaked in early April. Also the antibody tests were given to healthy people, those who were sick were quarantined at home during the antibody testing in April and May.

    25% of the New Yorkers took the antibody test from April 5 to Septmber. 24% of those tested over this 6 month period had the antibodies, yet the percentage with the antibodies keep falling, as the antibodies are no longer detected in the blood of most COVID survivors 3 months after infection.

    Most of them no longer have the antibodies, as they fade rapidly so we should expect that if 70% had CV at one point many of them would not have the antibodies 3 months later when they were finally tested. We know several people who were infected with CV and when they were tested for the antibodies they had no antibodies...because the antibodies vanish after a few weeks

    Studies Report Rapid Loss of COVID-19 Antibodies
    https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/studies-report-rapid-loss-of-covid-19-antibodies-67650
    studies published show patients lose their IgG antibodies—the virus-specific, slower-forming antibodies associated with long-term immunity—within weeks after recovery. With COVID-19, most people who become infected do produce antibodies, and even small amounts can still neutralize the virus in vitro, according to earlier work. These latest studies could not determine if a lack of antibodies leaves people at risk of reinfection.

    Replies: @utu

    I got the picture of your belief system and your methodology which is hypothesis driven not giving any consideration to alternative hypotheses and to the quality of data. As long any bit of data you can find supports your hypothesis you accept it. This is what defines pseudo-science. As I said:

    One would need to know more about the tests that were used, testing procedure and sampling. First two tests in April had relatively small sample. How representative were the samples? I am not aware of any publication using the data.

    Certainly your bold hypothesis is interesting but most likely it is a total crap. If indeed “70% of New Yorkers were infected back in March” that is probably enough to cross the threshold of herd immunity in NYC we would not have 100k new infections in April and another 100k in May and another 5k-10k deaths in May.

    If 70% were infected by the end of March, as you believe, and then one month later only 32% are antibody positive that would imply over 54% seroreversion rate in 30 days. The Tokyo paper

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.21.20198796v1.full.pdf

    using IgM/IgG test where the same sample was repeatedly tested observed 12% seroreversion in 2 months.

    It is interesting that skeptics of the so called ‘official narratives’ are not skeptics at all. They are strong believers in an alternative as long as it opposes the ‘official narrative’ and their ‘skepticism’ goes out of the window every time they find a bit of data that supports their beliefs. The so called skeptics are in fact the worst kind of doctrinaires.

    • Replies: @Travis
    @utu

    it is more likley that that only 40% of New Yorkers were infected in the first 4 months of the year. Just speculating that it is quite possible that 70% of New Yorkers contracted CV in the first 3 months of 2020. this would indicate the antibodies do not last for most people, thus many people who had COVID in March were reinfected in June. Thankfully most people who contract CV will recover, but if the infection rate was 70% by April it would indicate that immunity fades rapidly for most people.

    Most likely 40% of New Yorkers were infected in the first 5 months of the year, based on what we now understand about CV

    Current evidence indicates that the virus has an IFR below well below .5%.
    Knowing the IFR we can calculate how many New Yorkers were infected. If the IFR was .5% and NY had 15,000 COVID deaths by May, this would indicate that 3 million New Yorkers were infected by May which is ~40% of the NYC population.

    I understand that the data is not perfect. My fear is that we do not have long lasting immunity and this virus will be coming back this winter. Here in NJ 14,000 have died from COVID. Based on an IFR of .25% indicates that almost 6 million adults were infected in my state, which is 65% of the population. If the IFR is closer to .2% than we should expect COVID has run its course in NJ and we should not have many more deaths if immunity last a year. But if immunity fades after 6 months we may see another wave of deaths this winter.

  241. @Mr. Anon
    @utu

    The 0.3 micron standard was adopted for a reason. Anyway, you were wholly ignorant of it, just as were the authors of the study you cite.

    The test in the study you cited above doesn't say much about how an actual mask works. Their sample is tightly fitted on to a sample tube. Ever seen a cloth-mask that is tightly sealed on somebody's face? What kind of cloth do they use? And gloth weave gets looser with wear. And, anyway, when looking at studies, I look for ones pre-2020, given how political everything surrounding the topic has become.


    So why do you argue about mask efficiency? That should not matter for you, righ? “…the government does not and ought not to…” Case closed. But you do argue and I would say with your beliefs you fall into the pseudo-scientific practice where you collect only the data that undermine the case when “…the government does and ought to…” because it goes against your credo.
     
    Because facts are important. To some of us anyway.

    You definitively fall into the “social skeptics” category that I brought up in my #217 comment while not really thinking of you to which you responded and put me in a category of “totalitarian lickspittles”. Now I can say you are a perfect example of “social skeptic” a according to:
     
    I really don't care what you think of me. And you do seem to be a totalitarian lickspittle. Or a hysterical panic-monger. Whichever. I don't care. The rest of us have no interest in taking direction from your kind. If you want a society in which the government snaps its fingers and you dance, go live in China.

    Replies: @utu

    (1) The 0.3 micron standard was adopted for a reason. Anyway, (2) you were wholly ignorant of it, (3) just as were the authors of the study you cite.

    (1). There is always a reason and sometimes one can’t tell the difference between the reason and rationalization. The reason was purely theoretical based on a simple model:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6800048/#R3
    In the literature, the NIOSH challenge aerosol is often referred to as “0.3 μm in size”, which technically means the mass median aerodynamic diameter discussed here. The above indicated aerodynamic diameter was selected based upon a most penetrating particle size (MPPS) predicted by single fiber filtration theory of mechanical filters

    This is not true that 0.3 μm size particle are the most penetrating in N95 or surgical masks as you can find in papers I gave links to in my previous comments.

    What are NIOSH test regime requirements? See page 607 in 42 CFR:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6800048/#R3

    “The sodium chloride test aerosol shall have a particle size distribution with count median diameter of 0.075 ±0.020 micrometer and a standard geometric deviation not exceeding 1.86.”

    Where is the 0.3 micrometer? You need to convert to 0.075 count median diameter to mass median aerodynamic diameter (which becomes 347 nm ≈0.3 micrometer) and the standard geometry deviation to range and median of the logarithmic distribution to see how broad is the distribution. Then you get that 95% of particles are within the range 186nm – 645 nm in terms of aerodynamic diameter. This gives you an idea that particle size distribution is not very narrow around 0.3 micrometer but rather broad. Your yapping at the 0.3 micrometer tree was really pointless. But I am not surprised because you do not argue in a good faith. Pretty typical for lolbertarians.

    (3) Were the authors wholly ignorant as you impute? I doubt it but they could be because it did not matter. They followed right procedures and used the particle generator: TSI Particle Generator Model 8026 which is sold to people who do mask tests. The particle size distribution was right.

    PORTACOUNT® Plus Respirator Fit Tester and N95-Companion
    https://www.tsi.com/getmedia/e39e2877-cf0d-43d3-8667-b8041f94df55/PortaCount2980083RevE?ext=.pdf

    TSI however is not explicit on particle size specs so I did find this PhD dissertation where the same generator was used and the particle size distribution was measured with Wide Range Aerosol Spectrometer.

    https://etd.ohiolink.edu/!etd.send_file?accession=ucin1535374058309808&disposition=inline

    In Figure 2-3 you can see the PSD curve. Is it close to what NIOSH specifies? I do not know. Depends what diameter is on the abscissa: count diameter, mass diameter or mass aerodynamic diameter? But since TSI sells the generators to people doing N95 mask testing with NaCl particles I assume they know what they are doing.

    (2). You re right I did not know about the 0.3 micrometer issue. I did not have to because I was right pointing you to two articles that did tests of various fabric masks. The 2nd one was better because they measured particle size distribution. The bottom line is that fabric masks are OK and even can be better than the N95 mask for small nm range particles.. One needs to mind “the gap” just like for N95 masks.

    “I look for ones pre-2020, given how political everything surrounding”. – I understand your concern. Thousands of people want to jump on the bandwagon of Covid-19. Probably the number of papers in relation to Covid-19 reached above 100,000 by now. There are opportunist doing meaningless paper and then there are people like the hacks from the business school osf.io/rb8he/ who do a disservice to people. But I am sure your lolbertarian heart loved it because it argued that mask could do more harm than good on the account of people engaging in risk “compensation nation.”

    Now to the hilarious part and your “Because facts are important. To some of us anyway.”. Do not fool yourself that you can overcome your bias. You can tell yourself that you care about facts but you really do not. Only the facts that you can use pushing your ideology. You are a servant of your ideology. You showed both bad attitude and bad faith in this exchange.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @utu

    From that article you cited:


    We conclude, therefore, that the existing NIOSH certification protocol may not represent a “worst-case” assessment for electret filters because it has limited ability to determine the contribution of ultrafine aerosols, which include the most penetrating particle size for electret filters.
     
    Great - so maybe N95 masks aren't as good as advertised. Does that make your case?

    The fact remains - according to one of the papers you cited - that cloth masks likely have no better than ~35% filtration efficiency. And those were under ideal circumstances. I've seen estimates as low as 10%. I've seen people walking around with plastic face-shields - perfectly okay under the face-covering mandates in most places - utterly useless for preventing you from breathing in aersolized exhalation. The masks, like the lockdowns, are nothing but totalitarian theater.

    Look, I'm hardly a libertarian. I'm just not interested in arguing with you. I don't care what you think. You want to wear a mask? Wear a mask. Go out in public wearing an old-timey diving suit with iron helmet if you like. Wear a dry-cleaner bag over your head for all I care.

    Don't expect the rest of us to take part in your hysterical panic-attack.

    Replies: @utu

  242. @utu
    @Travis

    I got the picture of your belief system and your methodology which is hypothesis driven not giving any consideration to alternative hypotheses and to the quality of data. As long any bit of data you can find supports your hypothesis you accept it. This is what defines pseudo-science. As I said:


    One would need to know more about the tests that were used, testing procedure and sampling. First two tests in April had relatively small sample. How representative were the samples? I am not aware of any publication using the data.
     
    Certainly your bold hypothesis is interesting but most likely it is a total crap. If indeed "70% of New Yorkers were infected back in March" that is probably enough to cross the threshold of herd immunity in NYC we would not have 100k new infections in April and another 100k in May and another 5k-10k deaths in May.

    If 70% were infected by the end of March, as you believe, and then one month later only 32% are antibody positive that would imply over 54% seroreversion rate in 30 days. The Tokyo paper

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.21.20198796v1.full.pdf

    using IgM/IgG test where the same sample was repeatedly tested observed 12% seroreversion in 2 months.

    It is interesting that skeptics of the so called 'official narratives' are not skeptics at all. They are strong believers in an alternative as long as it opposes the 'official narrative' and their 'skepticism' goes out of the window every time they find a bit of data that supports their beliefs. The so called skeptics are in fact the worst kind of doctrinaires.

    Replies: @Travis

    it is more likley that that only 40% of New Yorkers were infected in the first 4 months of the year. Just speculating that it is quite possible that 70% of New Yorkers contracted CV in the first 3 months of 2020. this would indicate the antibodies do not last for most people, thus many people who had COVID in March were reinfected in June. Thankfully most people who contract CV will recover, but if the infection rate was 70% by April it would indicate that immunity fades rapidly for most people.

    Most likely 40% of New Yorkers were infected in the first 5 months of the year, based on what we now understand about CV

    Current evidence indicates that the virus has an IFR below well below .5%.
    Knowing the IFR we can calculate how many New Yorkers were infected. If the IFR was .5% and NY had 15,000 COVID deaths by May, this would indicate that 3 million New Yorkers were infected by May which is ~40% of the NYC population.

    I understand that the data is not perfect. My fear is that we do not have long lasting immunity and this virus will be coming back this winter. Here in NJ 14,000 have died from COVID. Based on an IFR of .25% indicates that almost 6 million adults were infected in my state, which is 65% of the population. If the IFR is closer to .2% than we should expect COVID has run its course in NJ and we should not have many more deaths if immunity last a year. But if immunity fades after 6 months we may see another wave of deaths this winter.

  243. @utu
    @Mr. Anon


    (1) The 0.3 micron standard was adopted for a reason. Anyway, (2) you were wholly ignorant of it, (3) just as were the authors of the study you cite.
     
    (1). There is always a reason and sometimes one can't tell the difference between the reason and rationalization. The reason was purely theoretical based on a simple model:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6800048/#R3
    In the literature, the NIOSH challenge aerosol is often referred to as “0.3 μm in size”, which technically means the mass median aerodynamic diameter discussed here. The above indicated aerodynamic diameter was selected based upon a most penetrating particle size (MPPS) predicted by single fiber filtration theory of mechanical filters
     
    This is not true that 0.3 μm size particle are the most penetrating in N95 or surgical masks as you can find in papers I gave links to in my previous comments.

    What are NIOSH test regime requirements? See page 607 in 42 CFR:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6800048/#R3

    "The sodium chloride test aerosol shall have a particle size distribution with count median diameter of 0.075 ±0.020 micrometer and a standard geometric deviation not exceeding 1.86."
     
    Where is the 0.3 micrometer? You need to convert to 0.075 count median diameter to mass median aerodynamic diameter (which becomes 347 nm ≈0.3 micrometer) and the standard geometry deviation to range and median of the logarithmic distribution to see how broad is the distribution. Then you get that 95% of particles are within the range 186nm - 645 nm in terms of aerodynamic diameter. This gives you an idea that particle size distribution is not very narrow around 0.3 micrometer but rather broad. Your yapping at the 0.3 micrometer tree was really pointless. But I am not surprised because you do not argue in a good faith. Pretty typical for lolbertarians.

    (3) Were the authors wholly ignorant as you impute? I doubt it but they could be because it did not matter. They followed right procedures and used the particle generator: TSI Particle Generator Model 8026 which is sold to people who do mask tests. The particle size distribution was right.

    PORTACOUNT® Plus Respirator Fit Tester and N95-Companion
    https://www.tsi.com/getmedia/e39e2877-cf0d-43d3-8667-b8041f94df55/PortaCount2980083RevE?ext=.pdf
     
    TSI however is not explicit on particle size specs so I did find this PhD dissertation where the same generator was used and the particle size distribution was measured with Wide Range Aerosol Spectrometer.

    https://etd.ohiolink.edu/!etd.send_file?accession=ucin1535374058309808&disposition=inline

    In Figure 2-3 you can see the PSD curve. Is it close to what NIOSH specifies? I do not know. Depends what diameter is on the abscissa: count diameter, mass diameter or mass aerodynamic diameter? But since TSI sells the generators to people doing N95 mask testing with NaCl particles I assume they know what they are doing.

    (2). You re right I did not know about the 0.3 micrometer issue. I did not have to because I was right pointing you to two articles that did tests of various fabric masks. The 2nd one was better because they measured particle size distribution. The bottom line is that fabric masks are OK and even can be better than the N95 mask for small nm range particles.. One needs to mind "the gap" just like for N95 masks.

    "I look for ones pre-2020, given how political everything surrounding". - I understand your concern. Thousands of people want to jump on the bandwagon of Covid-19. Probably the number of papers in relation to Covid-19 reached above 100,000 by now. There are opportunist doing meaningless paper and then there are people like the hacks from the business school osf.io/rb8he/ who do a disservice to people. But I am sure your lolbertarian heart loved it because it argued that mask could do more harm than good on the account of people engaging in risk "compensation nation."

    Now to the hilarious part and your "Because facts are important. To some of us anyway.". Do not fool yourself that you can overcome your bias. You can tell yourself that you care about facts but you really do not. Only the facts that you can use pushing your ideology. You are a servant of your ideology. You showed both bad attitude and bad faith in this exchange.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    From that article you cited:

    We conclude, therefore, that the existing NIOSH certification protocol may not represent a “worst-case” assessment for electret filters because it has limited ability to determine the contribution of ultrafine aerosols, which include the most penetrating particle size for electret filters.

    Great – so maybe N95 masks aren’t as good as advertised. Does that make your case?

    The fact remains – according to one of the papers you cited – that cloth masks likely have no better than ~35% filtration efficiency. And those were under ideal circumstances. I’ve seen estimates as low as 10%. I’ve seen people walking around with plastic face-shields – perfectly okay under the face-covering mandates in most places – utterly useless for preventing you from breathing in aersolized exhalation. The masks, like the lockdowns, are nothing but totalitarian theater.

    Look, I’m hardly a libertarian. I’m just not interested in arguing with you. I don’t care what you think. You want to wear a mask? Wear a mask. Go out in public wearing an old-timey diving suit with iron helmet if you like. Wear a dry-cleaner bag over your head for all I care.

    Don’t expect the rest of us to take part in your hysterical panic-attack.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Mr. Anon

    Obstinate idiot.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

  244. @Mr. Anon
    @utu

    From that article you cited:


    We conclude, therefore, that the existing NIOSH certification protocol may not represent a “worst-case” assessment for electret filters because it has limited ability to determine the contribution of ultrafine aerosols, which include the most penetrating particle size for electret filters.
     
    Great - so maybe N95 masks aren't as good as advertised. Does that make your case?

    The fact remains - according to one of the papers you cited - that cloth masks likely have no better than ~35% filtration efficiency. And those were under ideal circumstances. I've seen estimates as low as 10%. I've seen people walking around with plastic face-shields - perfectly okay under the face-covering mandates in most places - utterly useless for preventing you from breathing in aersolized exhalation. The masks, like the lockdowns, are nothing but totalitarian theater.

    Look, I'm hardly a libertarian. I'm just not interested in arguing with you. I don't care what you think. You want to wear a mask? Wear a mask. Go out in public wearing an old-timey diving suit with iron helmet if you like. Wear a dry-cleaner bag over your head for all I care.

    Don't expect the rest of us to take part in your hysterical panic-attack.

    Replies: @utu

    Obstinate idiot.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @utu


    Obstinate idiot.
     
    Funny - I thought the same of you.

    You've haunted the various 911 pages on this site, and you seem to believe in a wider conspiracy surrounding that event. Yet on COVID, you just take whatever the government spoonfeeds you. Strange.
  245. @utu
    @Mr. Anon

    Obstinate idiot.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    Obstinate idiot.

    Funny – I thought the same of you.

    You’ve haunted the various 911 pages on this site, and you seem to believe in a wider conspiracy surrounding that event. Yet on COVID, you just take whatever the government spoonfeeds you. Strange.

  246. “Funny – I thought the same of you.” – You do realize there is no symmetry. I have provided a lot of material and data while all you did was to engage in distracting arguments like the 0.3 micron issue. You could work on Johnnie Lee Cochran team:with ‘If it doesn’t fit, you must acquit’ shenanigans. So how are you doing Johnnie Lee Cochran? You need to a moral spine. Perhaps this is still possible. I the mean time you are a piece of shit like most libertarians of your ilk.

  247. @Feryl
    @kaganovitch

    The Houston homosexual serial killings by Dean Corll/David Brooks/Elmer Henley of the early 1970's is still quite possibly the most appalling crime series in "modern" US history (dozens of kids were horribly tortured). I think it's been memory holed because for one thing, it was just...Gay. For another thing, the local police were terribly negligent, dismissing report after report of missing male youths as typical 70's runaways (even though many of the victims were known to be reliable and studious and not the type to run away and get into trouble).

    Replies: @Tina Trent

    In the case of Scott Erskine, it can be said that Covid did the job the California Department of Corrections refused to do.

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