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How Many Children Under 18 Have Been Orphaned by Covid?
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With 500,000 official deaths in the U.S., here’s a question for helping come up with an objective assessment of how bad covid has been. The Spanish flu of 1918 hit men between 20 and 40 the hardest, thus leaving many widows and orphans. With 500,000 Americans now having died from covid, how many orphans (under 18 years old) did this toll create by killing one of their parents who was providing either substantial financial support or substantial in-home child care?

I did a little superficial research and found a WSJ article on covid orphans.

The last time Roberto Tobias Jr. talked to his father he put on a face mask and shield, gloves and a gown. Then the 17-year-old entered the room in Mount Sinai Queens where his father, Roberto Sr., 72, lay dying of Covid-19 complications.

Then he lost his mother (only 61) to the pandemic. The article goes on before I hit the paywall to say:

… it’s difficult to figure out exactly how many children have lost a caregiver or have been orphaned, but experts say the scale of the losses is likely staggering.

I’m not one of these experts, but I’d guess 4 figures or low 5 figures.

 
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  1. Anonymous[366] • Disclaimer says:

    I know of one man in his 40s with 5 kids who died. Appeared to be main breadwinner. But other than that, everyone I heard of anecdotally was well into their late 60s, early 70s or higher. I think COVID-19 was different than Spanish Flu deaths by a generation. Maybe lots of grandkids left grandparentless for this Pandemic. The WSJ article you mention seems like an outlier of a woman and man who had a kid in their mid-forties and warly fifties…..

  2. 17-year-old who lost both his father (age 72) and mother (61)

    Having a kid at 55 and 44, respectively? And I thought I was late to the game. We were getting close to giving up. At some point, as hard as it would be, people should, otherwise …
    I can’t read the whole thing, but I am curious what the story is behind that.

    • Replies: @jon
    @jon


    I can’t read the whole thing, but I am curious what the story is behind that.
     
    Found this more detailed article on the family (he also has a sister) for anyone that's interested.
    https://nypost.com/2020/07/15/nyc-student-lost-parents-to-covid-19-raises-over-20k-in-two-days/

    Replies: @Hypnotoad666

  3. I guess a lot of kids are raised by grandmothers, but even they aren’t usually in their 70s.

  4. Having your nation’s political leaders in the most likely to die age group tends to NOT get rational appraisals of what’s happening.

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman
    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666
    @Redneck farmer


    Having your nation’s political leaders in the most likely to die age group tends to NOT get rational appraisals of what’s happening.
     
    Good point. That's like asking how many wars would have been approved if they had to be fought by 60+ year-old rich guys.
  5. How many children under 18 have parents over 85?

  6. Anonymous[302] • Disclaimer says:

    “Listen here fat, you just don’t understand how bad that coof was. Ohhhh ho ho, maaan… You shoulda seen how bubonically heinous and pandemic the R-noughts and R-squareds were, before we got in here, chief, and put some real solid civil servants on it. We saved you all from a truly bad deal, pardner. But you see, that’s how building back better is done, man. Only dog-faced pony soldiers claim otherwise. I am so proud of my son”

    • Replies: @JimB
    @Anonymous

    Until I got to the mention of dog-faced pony soldiers, I thought you were quoting Burma Jones from Confederacy of Dunces.

    , @Ron Mexico
    @Anonymous

    How about his latest verbal f up? Using the N word with the R. Youtube's CC spelled it out just as it sounded. Biden is more retarded than W.

  7. Here’s some more of the article:

    The pandemic has disproportionately affected Black and Hispanic communities, as well as lower-income families, who often have no choice but to continue working outside the home.

    Social workers and therapists say they have been inundated with phone calls from relatives asking how to help grieving children.

    “Children are asking who will be taking care of me, or will it happen to me, or will it happen to the next person who is taking care of me…and it’s not so easy to answer those questions because we don’t have the answers,” said Gilly Cannon, director of children’s bereavement services at Maryland-based nonprofit CaringMatters.

    The Administration for Children and Families, a division of the U.S. Department for Health and Human Services, said it doesn’t collect data on the cause of death for caregivers that leads to a child entering foster care. Children must have a legal guardian until age 18. If they don’t have a relative who can be one, local child welfare officials enter them into the foster care system.

    In New York City, an area hit early by the pandemic, the Administration for Children’s Services has given guidance to social workers at hospitals on how to find relatives in the event of a caregiver dying, so they’d be able to potentially place children with family instead of moving them into the foster care system, a spokeswoman for ACS said.

    The rest of the story consists of a couple of tearjerker anecdotes. No actual, you know, numbers.

    • Thanks: Gabe Ruth
  8. COVID is a political disease. Skepticism is warranted.

    Lies, darned lies, and statistics. Then, after fifty feet of crap, there’s government medical statistics.

    • Agree: Polite Derelict
  9. Orphaned–almost none. <100.

    Lost a parent while still under 18. Sure there's got to be a fair number of those. Low five digits.

    Would have been nice if "the authorities" weren't such utter asswipes.

    Vitamin D, zinc, quercetin (or something else). Humidification. Cutting out the "killer beaches", "stay inside!" crap–i.e. don't let the sun touch your face, perhaps the worst medical advice ever. Masks for crowded indoor situations. Along with simple, absolute–"stay home if you're sick"–no excuses. Could have sailed on through this, to a vaccine.

    • Agree: Peterike, Ron Mexico
  10. Probably about the same as the number of black children who were orphaned by police during the same period.

    And subject to the very same kind of hysteria and overestimation.

  11. Most of the ‘kids’ are not White Americans, so they’re not really kids (joggers aged 12-17) and I don’t particularly care.

  12. People are still taking this shit seriously?

    • Replies: @Barnard
    @Colin Wright

    Haven't you heard? The latest survey I saw said 70% of people planned on continuing to wear masks after requirements were dropped where they live. A significant number must be waiting for High Priest Fauci to give them permission to stop wearing it.

    Replies: @Colin Wright, @utu

  13. Good lord. Anyone that thinks 500k Americans died from Covid is wholly unqualified to blog on the topic.

    • Replies: @Farenheit
    @Marquis

    Whenever I read any article on deaths from the Wuhan Tiara Flu (WTF, for short), and the author can't differentiate between dying with and dying from this flu, I normally just arch my eyebrows and skip on through. This applies here as well.

  14. The Guardian gave a great deal of attention to an illegal 11 year old Honduran immigrant who died in his 40 year old trailer supposedly of hypothermia but, to me, if you take your child to Minot,North Dakota in winter and can’t keep them warm enough to live whose fault is that? Ted Kazynski lived in a shack in Montana for decades and managed to build bombs by hand and send them all over the US.

    • Replies: @duncsbaby
    @unit472

    Minot, ND, has a HUGE problem not being able to adequately house the poor underclass of Honduras.

    This is being reported as straight news.

    , @Chris Mallory
    @unit472

    It was outside Houston, Texas, not anywhere in North Dakota.

  15. 18.5K deaths among the 30-50 age group. Then 70K for those 50-64. Plus 1700 people in their 20s. Dunno you are almost certainly talking 5 figures. If you look at fertility rates for 45 year olds (particularly hispanic 45 year olds who have been hit the hardest) you are talking about a lot of people with with 15 year old kids.

    Say you ballpark it as 1 kid for every 2 people age 30-50, plus one kid for every 10 men age 50-65 and one kid for every 20 women in that group. That’s roughly 16K kids give or take.

    I’d estimate it at 20 thousand kids under 18 who have lost a parent

    • LOL: 3g4me
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Goorin

    Thanks.

    But are the kind of youngish people most likely to die of covid -- diabetics, the very obese, the demented, etc. -- as likely to have children or to be substantially supporting them? I'd say half as many supported kids per person for those who died, so, using your math, I'd say 10k.

  16. Or one might ask how many couples were left childless?

    We were very lucky this time. The next Chinese virus may not be so magnanimous.

    • Agree: Gordo
    • Replies: @Rob
    @B36

    Yeah. Imagine if COVID were exactly the same, but had a 30% IFR. We would have had a National or international collapse, and would be in a multiparty civil war right now.

    Trump or no Trump, the federal government utterly failed. It was failure that took decades to build up to. The AMA and CDC were doing public service announcements on the dangers or racism and firearms. They were not preparing for a pandemic. While no one can predict when a serious respiratory disease will arise, the odds that one will within the next 20(?) years are pretty high. Call it 2-3% chance a year. They should have had contingency plans in place of how to set up regional quarantines to slow the spread of a disease. They should have had a plan in place to quarantine NYC in particular, the public transport and international travel mean it will be hit hard and fast by any new communicable disease.

    When I was 13 or so, I would have thought that there are experts in the CDC, as in experts who know a lot of things that are true about their field, with spreadsheets of current and potential zoonotic diseases, where they are endemic, how they spread, what do we do to keep them in check currently, what might cause them to grow exponentially, how we could treat them if millions were infected... now I am sure that guy was replaced by an AA hire who has trouble remembering her password and think a Brazilian is a number.

    Neoliberal economic and trade policy, the forever war, and the absolutely insane federal deficit and debt mean we have no cushion at all. We cannot afford disaster preparedness plans. Israel needs another war, billionaires want to move production to the third world. Political donors won’t let us tax capital...

    We cannot have nice things. People who broke America should be (metaphorically) swinging from lampposts. They will all get raises.

    , @Gordo
    @B36


    We were very lucky this time. The next Chinese virus may not be so magnanimous.
     
    Especially with the kind of leadership we have in the West.
    , @ken
    @B36

    In 2020 I couldn't go a week without hearing some idiot state that they weren't worried about COVID but didn't want their kids to get it. The average American is stupid.

  17. @jon

    17-year-old who lost both his father (age 72) and mother (61)
     
    Having a kid at 55 and 44, respectively? And I thought I was late to the game. We were getting close to giving up. At some point, as hard as it would be, people should, otherwise ...
    I can't read the whole thing, but I am curious what the story is behind that.

    Replies: @jon

    I can’t read the whole thing, but I am curious what the story is behind that.

    Found this more detailed article on the family (he also has a sister) for anyone that’s interested.
    https://nypost.com/2020/07/15/nyc-student-lost-parents-to-covid-19-raises-over-20k-in-two-days/

    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666
    @jon

    The First Rule of Current Year journalism is: don't believe anything you read in Current Year Journalism.

    The only evidence these old folks died of covid is the claim of a guy trying to raise money off the fact he is supposedly an orphan of covid. Maybe they were really his grandparents. Maybe he's not even related. Maybe they didn't die of Covid.

    There is no verification of anything. So if you believe, it's only because you have chosen this as the reality you want to be true.

    Replies: @jon

  18. Poor Steve must have a daily quota of covid propaganda. My god, the crap people close to retirement have to do.

  19. @Goorin
    18.5K deaths among the 30-50 age group. Then 70K for those 50-64. Plus 1700 people in their 20s. Dunno you are almost certainly talking 5 figures. If you look at fertility rates for 45 year olds (particularly hispanic 45 year olds who have been hit the hardest) you are talking about a lot of people with with 15 year old kids.

    Say you ballpark it as 1 kid for every 2 people age 30-50, plus one kid for every 10 men age 50-65 and one kid for every 20 women in that group. That's roughly 16K kids give or take.

    I'd estimate it at 20 thousand kids under 18 who have lost a parent

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    Thanks.

    But are the kind of youngish people most likely to die of covid — diabetics, the very obese, the demented, etc. — as likely to have children or to be substantially supporting them? I’d say half as many supported kids per person for those who died, so, using your math, I’d say 10k.

    • Troll: Je Suis Omar Mateen
  20. So an establishment approved megaphone (race denying libertarian) is now concerned about children with only one parent?

    How touching.

  21. Won’t somebody think of the orphans!!!11

  22. This site has a good discussion of the age-related risk from Covid and also the actual pathology of the disease: https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/ How many people actually die of Covid as opposed to just with it? We do know that it’s vastly less fatal for healthy under 75’s – ie parents who are still working – and also less fatal for women. Even a woman who has a kid at 45 would only be 63 by the time he’s 18, and absent any other serious conditions very unlikely to die from catching Covid. So I would guess the figure is low, even low 4 figures.

  23. @Marquis
    Good lord. Anyone that thinks 500k Americans died from Covid is wholly unqualified to blog on the topic.

    Replies: @Farenheit

    Whenever I read any article on deaths from the Wuhan Tiara Flu (WTF, for short), and the author can’t differentiate between dying with and dying from this flu, I normally just arch my eyebrows and skip on through. This applies here as well.

    • Agree: Alden, Polite Derelict
  24. The average age of a covid death is a couple of years higher than the overall average age of death. This is unprecedented for a pandemic, which usually averages 20-40 years below the overall average age.

  25. Losing a caregiver for some kids would mean losing an aunt or grandmother, maybe quite elderly.

  26. @Colin Wright
    People are still taking this shit seriously?

    Replies: @Barnard

    Haven’t you heard? The latest survey I saw said 70% of people planned on continuing to wear masks after requirements were dropped where they live. A significant number must be waiting for High Priest Fauci to give them permission to stop wearing it.

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
    @Barnard

    'Haven’t you heard? The latest survey I saw said 70% of people planned on continuing to wear masks after requirements were dropped where they live...'

    It's weird. Think it's some sort of generalized anxiety and inchoate fear?

    It is noticeable that people in stable, mono-ethnic communities with an assurance of shared values -- be they white, black, or Hispanic -- tend to ignore this shit a lot more than people on the leading edge of the new, diverse America do.

    , @utu
    @Barnard


    70% of people planned on continuing to wear masks after requirements were dropped where they live
     
    This could be a rational thing to do. Possibly a universal masking could reduce annual mortality from flu epidemics more than vaccination.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/24/world/asia/japan-deaths.html
    TOKYO Feb. 24, 2021 — Deaths in Japan fell last year for the first time in more than a decade, a jarring contrast to the huge death tolls suffered by many countries in the pandemic and a signal that Japan’s coronavirus measures have had positive spillover effects. The Health Ministry reported this week that deaths in Japan had dropped by more than 9,300 in 2020 to around 1.4 million. The decrease — seven-tenths of 1 percent from the year before — was a surprising turnabout for a nation with the oldest population in the world.

    The most recent Japanese government data does not break down mortality by category, so it is difficult to say with certainty what caused the decrease in deaths. But data from earlier in the year suggests that it was spurred in large part by a drastic decline in respiratory illnesses, a likely side effect of the country’s almost ubiquitous adoption of mask wearing and social distancing.

     

    Replies: @Mike Tre

  27. There’s an easy way to tell: how many nightly news stories have been ran on it? This would obviously be a huge narrative driver that they would highlight and emphasize every chance they got. The fact that you haven’t heard much on it tells you everything you need to know; not that many have been orphaned.

    You can now gain more from what they don’t say on the “news” than what they do say…

  28. One way to get a rough estimate is to go to that Wikipedia list of people who’ve died from the virus and extrapolate from the best-known 25 or so of them. Information on their children might be available.

  29. @Barnard
    @Colin Wright

    Haven't you heard? The latest survey I saw said 70% of people planned on continuing to wear masks after requirements were dropped where they live. A significant number must be waiting for High Priest Fauci to give them permission to stop wearing it.

    Replies: @Colin Wright, @utu

    ‘Haven’t you heard? The latest survey I saw said 70% of people planned on continuing to wear masks after requirements were dropped where they live…’

    It’s weird. Think it’s some sort of generalized anxiety and inchoate fear?

    It is noticeable that people in stable, mono-ethnic communities with an assurance of shared values — be they white, black, or Hispanic — tend to ignore this shit a lot more than people on the leading edge of the new, diverse America do.

  30. I’m not one of these experts, but I’d guess 4 figures or low 5 figures.

    Fwiw, I personally know of 23 Covid orphans under the age of 18 in the Orthodox Jewish community in NY-NJ.(six different families)

    • Troll: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @kaganovitch

    Not representative. Unique community order, unique reaction to lockdown, unique physiology, unique childbirth pattern, unique living arrangements, and unique tendency to lie on government forms, especially about family.

    Replies: @kaganovitch

  31. The number of children kidnapped by child protective services when parents relapsed on drugs and/or suffered mental breakdowns after losing their jobs and housing – thanks to Democratic terrorism lockdowns – is a thousand times the handful orphaned by all Hoax20-attributed deaths.

    What a stupid fucking question, Sailer.

    • Disagree: Polemos
    • Replies: @Alden
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    There’s 3 sides to every story; his hers and the truth.

    The usual people who call CPS are non custodial parents, and buttinsky relatives. Often it’s grandma or aunt who wants the welfare money Blame them, not CPS. The foster home system is horrible. But so are many natural families.

  32. Average age of death is about 73 years old. I would guess 1 out of fifty 70+ year old men (because there are no women giving birth in their 50’s) may have a child under the age of 18. And those are probably men who have money so they have better health and better access to care.

    Also considering the 500k number you are pushing is a lie; those are covid related deaths. Big difference, since co-morbidity is 90%. So the deaths that are actually from covid are more likely around 50,000 people, not 500,000, and a majority of those people were well past the child bearing/rearing years. So I’m going to say less than 100 kids orphaned.

    Compared to the millions of kids under 18 who have been locked in their houses for the last year and subject to the psychological manipulation and crualty known as mandatory mask wearing and social distancing.

    Hey Sailer, why don’t you estimate how many additional under 18 suicides there have been in the last 12 months. Or narcotics related deaths. You know, something that’s actually a reality.

    • Agree: Travis
    • Replies: @MGB
    @Mike Tre

    Because he doesn’t give a shit about teen suicides, or other deaths of despair. He just wants to feel secure through the forced vaccination of others and endless debates on demographics and vaccine efficacy based on bogus numbers applied to bogus premises. It’s 50s nostalgia that there still is a competent scientific and technical elite in the West, when there clearly isn’t.

    Replies: @Travis

  33. @Anonymous
    "Listen here fat, you just don't understand how bad that coof was. Ohhhh ho ho, maaan... You shoulda seen how bubonically heinous and pandemic the R-noughts and R-squareds were, before we got in here, chief, and put some real solid civil servants on it. We saved you all from a truly bad deal, pardner. But you see, that's how building back better is done, man. Only dog-faced pony soldiers claim otherwise. I am so proud of my son"

    Replies: @JimB, @Ron Mexico

    Until I got to the mention of dog-faced pony soldiers, I thought you were quoting Burma Jones from Confederacy of Dunces.

  34. I’d think NYT, WaPo, and WSJ would be the minimum media subscription armamentarium for a political/cultural writer. You really go “Alpine style.”

  35. @Anonymous
    "Listen here fat, you just don't understand how bad that coof was. Ohhhh ho ho, maaan... You shoulda seen how bubonically heinous and pandemic the R-noughts and R-squareds were, before we got in here, chief, and put some real solid civil servants on it. We saved you all from a truly bad deal, pardner. But you see, that's how building back better is done, man. Only dog-faced pony soldiers claim otherwise. I am so proud of my son"

    Replies: @JimB, @Ron Mexico

    How about his latest verbal f up? Using the N word with the R. Youtube’s CC spelled it out just as it sounded. Biden is more retarded than W.

  36. How many children have lost a year now of their childhoods? How many have not gotten to play their favorite sport, and/or haven’t seen their best friends in person in a year due to a hysterical Mom and henpecked Dad? I’d say it’s in the 10’s of millions.

    How many small businesses have been orphaned at a young age as their customer base and profits have both died in the same year? It’s in the 10’s and maybe 100’s of thousands.

    How many babies don’t know that a face mask is not part of a normal human face outside their house? How many babies have not been conceived at all since their potential parents do not have a life, with their potential Dad depended on unemployment money and occasional stimulus checks and potential Mom walking around with a mask covering that potentially cute face?

    I doubt that there’s been any single Kung Flu orphan in my medium sized city, or, as Rooster10 noted, it would have been all over the news.

    • Agree: J.Ross, 3g4me
  37. Little Orphan Funkhouser

  38. @jon
    @jon


    I can’t read the whole thing, but I am curious what the story is behind that.
     
    Found this more detailed article on the family (he also has a sister) for anyone that's interested.
    https://nypost.com/2020/07/15/nyc-student-lost-parents-to-covid-19-raises-over-20k-in-two-days/

    Replies: @Hypnotoad666

    The First Rule of Current Year journalism is: don’t believe anything you read in Current Year Journalism.

    The only evidence these old folks died of covid is the claim of a guy trying to raise money off the fact he is supposedly an orphan of covid. Maybe they were really his grandparents. Maybe he’s not even related. Maybe they didn’t die of Covid.

    There is no verification of anything. So if you believe, it’s only because you have chosen this as the reality you want to be true.

    • Agree: Alden
    • Replies: @jon
    @Hypnotoad666


    Maybe they were really his grandparents. Maybe he’s not even related.
     
    Given that they don't say anything about the sister's age, I assume she is probably much older. Him being a grandkid or other relative besides son is pretty likely.
    ETA: Also, the family sounds pretty poor, so this miracle baby at 44 for the mom would have to have been sans any modern fertility magic.
  39. @Redneck farmer
    Having your nation's political leaders in the most likely to die age group tends to NOT get rational appraisals of what's happening.

    Replies: @Hypnotoad666

    Having your nation’s political leaders in the most likely to die age group tends to NOT get rational appraisals of what’s happening.

    Good point. That’s like asking how many wars would have been approved if they had to be fought by 60+ year-old rich guys.

  40. @Barnard
    @Colin Wright

    Haven't you heard? The latest survey I saw said 70% of people planned on continuing to wear masks after requirements were dropped where they live. A significant number must be waiting for High Priest Fauci to give them permission to stop wearing it.

    Replies: @Colin Wright, @utu

    70% of people planned on continuing to wear masks after requirements were dropped where they live

    This could be a rational thing to do. Possibly a universal masking could reduce annual mortality from flu epidemics more than vaccination.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/24/world/asia/japan-deaths.html
    TOKYO Feb. 24, 2021 — Deaths in Japan fell last year for the first time in more than a decade, a jarring contrast to the huge death tolls suffered by many countries in the pandemic and a signal that Japan’s coronavirus measures have had positive spillover effects. The Health Ministry reported this week that deaths in Japan had dropped by more than 9,300 in 2020 to around 1.4 million. The decrease — seven-tenths of 1 percent from the year before — was a surprising turnabout for a nation with the oldest population in the world.

    The most recent Japanese government data does not break down mortality by category, so it is difficult to say with certainty what caused the decrease in deaths. But data from earlier in the year suggests that it was spurred in large part by a drastic decline in respiratory illnesses, a likely side effect of the country’s almost ubiquitous adoption of mask wearing and social distancing.

    • Troll: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Replies: @Mike Tre
    @utu

    "This could be a rational thing to do. Possibly a universal masking could reduce annual mortality from flu epidemics more than vaccination."

    You've revealed yourself to be a nasty little Mao wanna-be. I'd dismiss you as a clown but your insect like social engineering plans have a particularly detached and evil tinge to them. I hope you don't reproduce.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous

  41. @kaganovitch
    I’m not one of these experts, but I’d guess 4 figures or low 5 figures.

    Fwiw, I personally know of 23 Covid orphans under the age of 18 in the Orthodox Jewish community in NY-NJ.(six different families)

    Replies: @J.Ross

    Not representative. Unique community order, unique reaction to lockdown, unique physiology, unique childbirth pattern, unique living arrangements, and unique tendency to lie on government forms, especially about family.

    • Replies: @kaganovitch
    @J.Ross

    Not representative. Unique community order, unique reaction to lockdown, unique physiology, unique childbirth pattern, unique living arrangements, and unique tendency to lie on government forms, especially about family.

    Agreed basically. Don't understand the relevance of lying on govt. forms to this, though.

    Replies: @J.Ross

  42. The Spanish flu directly targeted those in the prime of life and left the young and the old go free. This is explained by the fact that the virus hijacked strong immune systems and turned them against people. So the Spanish flu was more like a kind of immune disorder, like lupus or something. The immune systems of the young and the old were not as strong, and thus could not be as strongly turned against them.

  43. @unit472
    The Guardian gave a great deal of attention to an illegal 11 year old Honduran immigrant who died in his 40 year old trailer supposedly of hypothermia but, to me, if you take your child to Minot,North Dakota in winter and can't keep them warm enough to live whose fault is that? Ted Kazynski lived in a shack in Montana for decades and managed to build bombs by hand and send them all over the US.

    Replies: @duncsbaby, @Chris Mallory

    Minot, ND, has a HUGE problem not being able to adequately house the poor underclass of Honduras.

    This is being reported as straight news.

  44. a likely side effect of the country’s almost ubiquitous adoption of mask wearing and social distancing.

    Pure speculation. As I’ve said before, I live in a Japanese metropolitan area that is under the “state of emergency” order. Mask-wearing is close to 100% now and has been since probably November or maybe late October, but over the summer it was closer to 50% outside and 70%-80% on public transportation. Moreover, many, many people wear their masks incorrectly. Example: over the weekend, my wife and I went out to eat and the chef wore his mask with the top edge barely covering his mouth. Then, whenever he wanted to talk to us, he would pull the mask down by the front to uncover his mouth entirely. In my universities, the kids don’t pay any attention to how their masks are and also don’t observe any social distancing except when forced by seating assignments (for example, in the cafeteria). And in addition, a lot of people wear masks of questionable value because they are made out of poor materials.

    Anyhow, if you look at the curve of daily new cases and compare it to mask compliance, it’s quite clear that is not the intervention controlling the shape of the graph. The “state of emergency” is not a universal lockdown but a request that restaurants and bars close at 8pm. This intervention is meant to prevent after-work drinking parties, which can turn into super-spreader events. I think it’s possible that the daily new cases have just responded to weather, but if they responded to anything else it was the early closing times.

    Social distancing in Japan is imaginary. Buses and trains are full. There is nothing you can do about it.

    The low number of elderly deaths is probably because of strict measures to protect elder care facilities. We have not been able to visit my wife’s grandmother most of the year. Verboten.

    Absolute distancing via isolation and preventing conditions for superspreader events. This is how Japan is controlling its outbreaks.

    The article is just speculation meant to bolster the common narratives from authorities in the west.

    • Troll: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Replies: @Lurker
    @Chrisnonymous

    I wonder if lots of attention to cleaning is more effective than masking. Lots of hand washing and sanitizing. While door handles, keyboards, phones, screens and suchlike are being cleaned regularly.

    I suspect that infection via hand to face contact is far more significant than airborne transmission.

    I've only been ill once 2020-21, a cold back in March yet for most of that time most people have not worn masks.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous

  45. @B36
    Or one might ask how many couples were left childless?

    We were very lucky this time. The next Chinese virus may not be so magnanimous.

    Replies: @Rob, @Gordo, @ken

    Yeah. Imagine if COVID were exactly the same, but had a 30% IFR. We would have had a National or international collapse, and would be in a multiparty civil war right now.

    Trump or no Trump, the federal government utterly failed. It was failure that took decades to build up to. The AMA and CDC were doing public service announcements on the dangers or racism and firearms. They were not preparing for a pandemic. While no one can predict when a serious respiratory disease will arise, the odds that one will within the next 20(?) years are pretty high. Call it 2-3% chance a year. They should have had contingency plans in place of how to set up regional quarantines to slow the spread of a disease. They should have had a plan in place to quarantine NYC in particular, the public transport and international travel mean it will be hit hard and fast by any new communicable disease.

    When I was 13 or so, I would have thought that there are experts in the CDC, as in experts who know a lot of things that are true about their field, with spreadsheets of current and potential zoonotic diseases, where they are endemic, how they spread, what do we do to keep them in check currently, what might cause them to grow exponentially, how we could treat them if millions were infected… now I am sure that guy was replaced by an AA hire who has trouble remembering her password and think a Brazilian is a number.

    Neoliberal economic and trade policy, the forever war, and the absolutely insane federal deficit and debt mean we have no cushion at all. We cannot afford disaster preparedness plans. Israel needs another war, billionaires want to move production to the third world. Political donors won’t let us tax capital…

    We cannot have nice things. People who broke America should be (metaphorically) swinging from lampposts. They will all get raises.

    • Troll: Je Suis Omar Mateen
  46. @B36
    Or one might ask how many couples were left childless?

    We were very lucky this time. The next Chinese virus may not be so magnanimous.

    Replies: @Rob, @Gordo, @ken

    We were very lucky this time. The next Chinese virus may not be so magnanimous.

    Especially with the kind of leadership we have in the West.

  47. @J.Ross
    @kaganovitch

    Not representative. Unique community order, unique reaction to lockdown, unique physiology, unique childbirth pattern, unique living arrangements, and unique tendency to lie on government forms, especially about family.

    Replies: @kaganovitch

    Not representative. Unique community order, unique reaction to lockdown, unique physiology, unique childbirth pattern, unique living arrangements, and unique tendency to lie on government forms, especially about family.

    Agreed basically. Don’t understand the relevance of lying on govt. forms to this, though.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @kaganovitch

    Now that I reflect on it every sentient being above a certain level of intelligence holds government in contempt and lies on forms. Jus' tryin' to talk about Lakewood welllllfarrrre.
    ---------
    OT look at that Smith College story blow up. Are we not doomed? Is there still some instinct that young white women ought not to be abused?
    I chose freedom [instead of comfort]
    I would respond directly to this, madam, but it would be mistaken by sad, confused people for "harassment." You are an example.

  48. @Chrisnonymous

    a likely side effect of the country’s almost ubiquitous adoption of mask wearing and social distancing.
     
    Pure speculation. As I've said before, I live in a Japanese metropolitan area that is under the "state of emergency" order. Mask-wearing is close to 100% now and has been since probably November or maybe late October, but over the summer it was closer to 50% outside and 70%-80% on public transportation. Moreover, many, many people wear their masks incorrectly. Example: over the weekend, my wife and I went out to eat and the chef wore his mask with the top edge barely covering his mouth. Then, whenever he wanted to talk to us, he would pull the mask down by the front to uncover his mouth entirely. In my universities, the kids don't pay any attention to how their masks are and also don't observe any social distancing except when forced by seating assignments (for example, in the cafeteria). And in addition, a lot of people wear masks of questionable value because they are made out of poor materials.

    Anyhow, if you look at the curve of daily new cases and compare it to mask compliance, it's quite clear that is not the intervention controlling the shape of the graph. The "state of emergency" is not a universal lockdown but a request that restaurants and bars close at 8pm. This intervention is meant to prevent after-work drinking parties, which can turn into super-spreader events. I think it's possible that the daily new cases have just responded to weather, but if they responded to anything else it was the early closing times.

    Social distancing in Japan is imaginary. Buses and trains are full. There is nothing you can do about it.

    The low number of elderly deaths is probably because of strict measures to protect elder care facilities. We have not been able to visit my wife's grandmother most of the year. Verboten.

    Absolute distancing via isolation and preventing conditions for superspreader events. This is how Japan is controlling its outbreaks.

    The article is just speculation meant to bolster the common narratives from authorities in the west.

    Replies: @Lurker

    I wonder if lots of attention to cleaning is more effective than masking. Lots of hand washing and sanitizing. While door handles, keyboards, phones, screens and suchlike are being cleaned regularly.

    I suspect that infection via hand to face contact is far more significant than airborne transmission.

    I’ve only been ill once 2020-21, a cold back in March yet for most of that time most people have not worn masks.

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @Lurker

    Unlikely. Research out of Germany shows contact transmission is not very significant. Furthermore, Japanese people, despite stereotypes, are not particularly hygenic. They have developed a reputation for hygiene because they were more hygienic than westerners up to the 1940s or so. However, they have continued in the same practices, which include belief--even if through social convention--in the purifying nature of water. 100 years ago, believing that pouring water on things was good was beneficial. But today, it results in people tossing water on things that would be better disinfected and scrubbed. Similarly, Japanese chefs continue to make sushi with bare hands. Chefs who have adopted gloves are subject to losing customers.

    Actually, I think this is a good thing in the long term. But hand-washing leading to low Japanese COVID numbers? No.

  49. @Mike Tre
    Average age of death is about 73 years old. I would guess 1 out of fifty 70+ year old men (because there are no women giving birth in their 50's) may have a child under the age of 18. And those are probably men who have money so they have better health and better access to care.

    Also considering the 500k number you are pushing is a lie; those are covid related deaths. Big difference, since co-morbidity is 90%. So the deaths that are actually from covid are more likely around 50,000 people, not 500,000, and a majority of those people were well past the child bearing/rearing years. So I'm going to say less than 100 kids orphaned.

    Compared to the millions of kids under 18 who have been locked in their houses for the last year and subject to the psychological manipulation and crualty known as mandatory mask wearing and social distancing.

    Hey Sailer, why don't you estimate how many additional under 18 suicides there have been in the last 12 months. Or narcotics related deaths. You know, something that's actually a reality.

    Replies: @MGB

    Because he doesn’t give a shit about teen suicides, or other deaths of despair. He just wants to feel secure through the forced vaccination of others and endless debates on demographics and vaccine efficacy based on bogus numbers applied to bogus premises. It’s 50s nostalgia that there still is a competent scientific and technical elite in the West, when there clearly isn’t.

    • Replies: @Travis
    @MGB

    Elderly folks like Sailer were fooled badly by the COVID disinformation campaign. Steve will run another 20 articles blaming BLM for the increase in Black murders but will never address the damage done by the lockdowns, which caused far more deaths and economic detruction to whites than all those Black killers across urban America. The lockdowns were an utter failure and did not stop the spread of this virus, as was predicted by the CDC and the WHO. Lockdowns do not work against a highly contagious respiratory virus. This was known before 2020 and has been confirmed across the globe. Available data reveal lockdowns have been completely ineffective at lowering positive test rates, while extracting a huge cost in terms of human suffering and societal health.

    Replies: @Polite Derelict

  50. @kaganovitch
    @J.Ross

    Not representative. Unique community order, unique reaction to lockdown, unique physiology, unique childbirth pattern, unique living arrangements, and unique tendency to lie on government forms, especially about family.

    Agreed basically. Don't understand the relevance of lying on govt. forms to this, though.

    Replies: @J.Ross

    Now that I reflect on it every sentient being above a certain level of intelligence holds government in contempt and lies on forms. Jus’ tryin’ to talk about Lakewood welllllfarrrre.
    ———
    OT look at that Smith College story blow up. Are we not doomed? Is there still some instinct that young white women ought not to be abused?
    I chose freedom [instead of comfort]
    I would respond directly to this, madam, but it would be mistaken by sad, confused people for “harassment.” You are an example.

  51. @utu
    @Barnard


    70% of people planned on continuing to wear masks after requirements were dropped where they live
     
    This could be a rational thing to do. Possibly a universal masking could reduce annual mortality from flu epidemics more than vaccination.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/24/world/asia/japan-deaths.html
    TOKYO Feb. 24, 2021 — Deaths in Japan fell last year for the first time in more than a decade, a jarring contrast to the huge death tolls suffered by many countries in the pandemic and a signal that Japan’s coronavirus measures have had positive spillover effects. The Health Ministry reported this week that deaths in Japan had dropped by more than 9,300 in 2020 to around 1.4 million. The decrease — seven-tenths of 1 percent from the year before — was a surprising turnabout for a nation with the oldest population in the world.

    The most recent Japanese government data does not break down mortality by category, so it is difficult to say with certainty what caused the decrease in deaths. But data from earlier in the year suggests that it was spurred in large part by a drastic decline in respiratory illnesses, a likely side effect of the country’s almost ubiquitous adoption of mask wearing and social distancing.

     

    Replies: @Mike Tre

    “This could be a rational thing to do. Possibly a universal masking could reduce annual mortality from flu epidemics more than vaccination.”

    You’ve revealed yourself to be a nasty little Mao wanna-be. I’d dismiss you as a clown but your insect like social engineering plans have a particularly detached and evil tinge to them. I hope you don’t reproduce.

    • Agree: Chrisnonymous
    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @Mike Tre

    Indeed. utu is a special kind of evil.

  52. 120 million Americans have already recovered from COVID, which is 36% of the US population and 67 million adults have been vaccinated…we should be getting close to herd immunity which explains why cases are down 80% since the peak in January. https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/06/964527835/why-the-pandemic-is-10-times-worse-than-you-think

    There are 140 million Americans are over the age of 44. The majority of the 66 million vaccinated are over the age of 44 so the majority of those over the age of 44 now have immunity because they have recovered from COVID (~35%) or they have been vaccinated (~40%). There is overlap, since half of those who recovered from COVID had zero symptoms and do not know they recovered from it so we can estimate that ~60% of those over the age of 45 are now immune to COVID from either a past infection or via vaccinations. This explains why hospitalization are down 60% from the January peak, fewer and fewer Americans are susceptible to this virus.

    • Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @Travis

    Good point, the pandemic will be over by April, as most Americans will have immunity to CV by then.

  53. Half the 500,000 who died from CV would have passed away within the year without COVID. 60% were elderly nursing home residents. The average lifespan for a nursing home patient is 12 months from the day they are admitted.

    The lockdowns caused far more psychological and economic damage to our youth than Deaths attributed to CV

    • Agree: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    You're a little high on your numbers. The total # of dead from nursing homes (patients and staff combined) is 160,000 which is less than 1/3 of the total.

    https://www.aarp.org/ppi/issues/caregiving/info-2020/nursing-home-covid-dashboard.html

    I don't know what the breakdown is on staff vs. patient - I assume the vast majority were patients but the staff # was not zero so it's even less than 1/3. Also this number is for "nursing homes and other long term care facilities" (which includes places like "assisted living". ) While the average lifespan of a nursing home patient may be only 1 year, there are people who live in assisted living facilities for many years.

    The average age of a Covid victim is around 80 and the average 80 year old has a life expectancy of around 8 years so that would be a rough measure of the average # of life years lost. You could argue that Covid is picking the low hanging fruit but I don't think you could come up with a plausible # that is less than say 4 average life years lost.

    Aside from the elderly, the other group that is hardest hit by Covid are those with comorbidities. Given modern medical treatment. people with comorbidities such as obesity who died of covid might have lived for decades more.

    Replies: @Wilkey

  54. @B36
    Or one might ask how many couples were left childless?

    We were very lucky this time. The next Chinese virus may not be so magnanimous.

    Replies: @Rob, @Gordo, @ken

    In 2020 I couldn’t go a week without hearing some idiot state that they weren’t worried about COVID but didn’t want their kids to get it. The average American is stupid.

  55. @unit472
    The Guardian gave a great deal of attention to an illegal 11 year old Honduran immigrant who died in his 40 year old trailer supposedly of hypothermia but, to me, if you take your child to Minot,North Dakota in winter and can't keep them warm enough to live whose fault is that? Ted Kazynski lived in a shack in Montana for decades and managed to build bombs by hand and send them all over the US.

    Replies: @duncsbaby, @Chris Mallory

    It was outside Houston, Texas, not anywhere in North Dakota.

  56. put me officially on record as not believing the 500,000 figure. i could believe half of that, maybe. i’ve now started to question the usual flu deaths numbers as well. do 50,000 old people really die every year from a flu infection? not during covid they don’t, anyway.

    there’s a lot of old people in my extended family. nobody has even gotten a symptomatic case. we don’t even know a single person who has died from it, including ANY friend or relative of every person in the entire extended family – that’s hundreds of people. not one single report thru the grapevine that so and so’s great uncle Pappy over in Indiana kicked the bucket from this thing last month.

    at some point, the anecdotal evidence has to start to add up. add up to this bullshit being completely overblown in the extreme. i’d say there is a 100% chance of this entire event being largely a cataloging phenomenon of old people dying in hospitals and retirement homes where deaths are just counted as covid and that’s that. the virus is real, and kills old people and fat people. but not at the national crisis, world war mobilization level. not even remotely close to that.

    • Agree: Polite Derelict
    • Replies: @Jack D
    @prime noticer

    350 million people in America and around 500,000 dead or 1 in 700. So unless you know 700 people you may not know anyone who died of Covid. Personally I knew one guy who died of it but he was literally 100 years old. He wasn't totally senile but he was definitely declining. Absent the 'rona he might have made it another 2 or 3 years and then died in the next flu epidemic.

    He got it from his black caretaker. If you're not black your chances of knowing someone who died of Covid are lower. Lots and lots of blacks and browns who have died of Covid. A very high % of the non-elderly dead. They tend to live in multi-generational households, work in occupations that can't be done from home, were more often obese, asthmatic, etc. and did not adhere to social distancing rules.

    So if your social circles don't include the elderly and non-whites, there's a very good chance that you don't know anyone who died of Covid.

    This doesn't mean that they didn't - it just means that the victims are not in your social circle. Over 500,000 excess deaths in 2020 vs. an average year so more people than usual are dying of SOMETHING. People die in hospitals and nursing homes all the time (and the same this year) but if in an average year there are 2.8 million deaths and in 2020 there were 3.3 million, something was going on and if you are not in denial that something was Covid.

    Now it's true that the media image of the average Covid victim being a young slim healthy white mom or something like that is more or less a lie - the average Covid victim is more like an 80 yr old white man living his last days in a nursing home. Yes a few rare victims were the former but they were the exceptions, not the rule. However, this doesn't mean that the Covid dead didn't die of Covid or that Covid didn't trim a few years off of their life expectancy.

    Again the media picture has been a complete distortion (I assume driven by the fact that the other victim group aside from the elderly were non-whites and they were afraid to tell you that for the same reason they don't want you to know that criminals are disproportionately black) so I don't blame you for being suspicious. The numbers are real but the composition of the dead is mostly being hidden behind the facade of the lying press. They are rightly afraid that if Americans knew that as non-elderly white people they had little risk of dying (virtually zero for under 40s), then they would not have put up with all the lockdowns, etc.

  57. @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    The number of children kidnapped by child protective services when parents relapsed on drugs and/or suffered mental breakdowns after losing their jobs and housing - thanks to Democratic terrorism lockdowns - is a thousand times the handful orphaned by all Hoax20-attributed deaths.

    What a stupid fucking question, Sailer.

    Replies: @Alden

    There’s 3 sides to every story; his hers and the truth.

    The usual people who call CPS are non custodial parents, and buttinsky relatives. Often it’s grandma or aunt who wants the welfare money Blame them, not CPS. The foster home system is horrible. But so are many natural families.

  58. @prime noticer
    put me officially on record as not believing the 500,000 figure. i could believe half of that, maybe. i've now started to question the usual flu deaths numbers as well. do 50,000 old people really die every year from a flu infection? not during covid they don't, anyway.

    there's a lot of old people in my extended family. nobody has even gotten a symptomatic case. we don't even know a single person who has died from it, including ANY friend or relative of every person in the entire extended family - that's hundreds of people. not one single report thru the grapevine that so and so's great uncle Pappy over in Indiana kicked the bucket from this thing last month.

    at some point, the anecdotal evidence has to start to add up. add up to this bullshit being completely overblown in the extreme. i'd say there is a 100% chance of this entire event being largely a cataloging phenomenon of old people dying in hospitals and retirement homes where deaths are just counted as covid and that's that. the virus is real, and kills old people and fat people. but not at the national crisis, world war mobilization level. not even remotely close to that.

    Replies: @Jack D

    350 million people in America and around 500,000 dead or 1 in 700. So unless you know 700 people you may not know anyone who died of Covid. Personally I knew one guy who died of it but he was literally 100 years old. He wasn’t totally senile but he was definitely declining. Absent the ‘rona he might have made it another 2 or 3 years and then died in the next flu epidemic.

    He got it from his black caretaker. If you’re not black your chances of knowing someone who died of Covid are lower. Lots and lots of blacks and browns who have died of Covid. A very high % of the non-elderly dead. They tend to live in multi-generational households, work in occupations that can’t be done from home, were more often obese, asthmatic, etc. and did not adhere to social distancing rules.

    So if your social circles don’t include the elderly and non-whites, there’s a very good chance that you don’t know anyone who died of Covid.

    This doesn’t mean that they didn’t – it just means that the victims are not in your social circle. Over 500,000 excess deaths in 2020 vs. an average year so more people than usual are dying of SOMETHING. People die in hospitals and nursing homes all the time (and the same this year) but if in an average year there are 2.8 million deaths and in 2020 there were 3.3 million, something was going on and if you are not in denial that something was Covid.

    Now it’s true that the media image of the average Covid victim being a young slim healthy white mom or something like that is more or less a lie – the average Covid victim is more like an 80 yr old white man living his last days in a nursing home. Yes a few rare victims were the former but they were the exceptions, not the rule. However, this doesn’t mean that the Covid dead didn’t die of Covid or that Covid didn’t trim a few years off of their life expectancy.

    Again the media picture has been a complete distortion (I assume driven by the fact that the other victim group aside from the elderly were non-whites and they were afraid to tell you that for the same reason they don’t want you to know that criminals are disproportionately black) so I don’t blame you for being suspicious. The numbers are real but the composition of the dead is mostly being hidden behind the facade of the lying press. They are rightly afraid that if Americans knew that as non-elderly white people they had little risk of dying (virtually zero for under 40s), then they would not have put up with all the lockdowns, etc.

  59. @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    Half the 500,000 who died from CV would have passed away within the year without COVID. 60% were elderly nursing home residents. The average lifespan for a nursing home patient is 12 months from the day they are admitted.

    The lockdowns caused far more psychological and economic damage to our youth than Deaths attributed to CV

    Replies: @Jack D

    You’re a little high on your numbers. The total # of dead from nursing homes (patients and staff combined) is 160,000 which is less than 1/3 of the total.

    https://www.aarp.org/ppi/issues/caregiving/info-2020/nursing-home-covid-dashboard.html

    I don’t know what the breakdown is on staff vs. patient – I assume the vast majority were patients but the staff # was not zero so it’s even less than 1/3. Also this number is for “nursing homes and other long term care facilities” (which includes places like “assisted living”. ) While the average lifespan of a nursing home patient may be only 1 year, there are people who live in assisted living facilities for many years.

    The average age of a Covid victim is around 80 and the average 80 year old has a life expectancy of around 8 years so that would be a rough measure of the average # of life years lost. You could argue that Covid is picking the low hanging fruit but I don’t think you could come up with a plausible # that is less than say 4 average life years lost.

    Aside from the elderly, the other group that is hardest hit by Covid are those with comorbidities. Given modern medical treatment. people with comorbidities such as obesity who died of covid might have lived for decades more.

    • Replies: @Wilkey
    @Jack D


    The average age of a Covid victim is around 80 and the average 80 year old has a life expectancy of around 8 years so that would be a rough measure of the average # of life years lost.
     
    When the numbers first started rolling in, along with stories about nursing home deaths, I assumed COVID was mostly picking off people in their last few months of life. If that had been the case then COVID would have been something like pneumonia, which is often referred to as “the old man’s friend” - dealing the final blow to elderly people who are in a lot of pain and misery and ready to depart this life.

    Then I started hearing of people I knew personally who died. While they were all elderly or had comorbidities, only one struck me as having one foot in the grave. The rest seemed to be in pretty decent health for their age. So yes, this disease has probably cut a year or two from the life of the average victim, at least.

    However, rereading Hernan’s comment, he only states that half the victims would have died within a year. That may very well be true. Time will tell.

  60. @Travis
    120 million Americans have already recovered from COVID, which is 36% of the US population and 67 million adults have been vaccinated...we should be getting close to herd immunity which explains why cases are down 80% since the peak in January. https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/06/964527835/why-the-pandemic-is-10-times-worse-than-you-think

    There are 140 million Americans are over the age of 44. The majority of the 66 million vaccinated are over the age of 44 so the majority of those over the age of 44 now have immunity because they have recovered from COVID (~35%) or they have been vaccinated (~40%). There is overlap, since half of those who recovered from COVID had zero symptoms and do not know they recovered from it so we can estimate that ~60% of those over the age of 45 are now immune to COVID from either a past infection or via vaccinations. This explains why hospitalization are down 60% from the January peak, fewer and fewer Americans are susceptible to this virus.

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    Good point, the pandemic will be over by April, as most Americans will have immunity to CV by then.

  61. Other people have already said this, but there are a lot of children, especially in the ghetto, who are raised by grandparents and sometimes even great-grandparents. COVID hit black communities a lot harder than it hit white communities.

    The virus mostly hit the elderly. Yes, it sometimes killed people under 60, but now you’re dealing with the odds that it killed two parents under that age. Yes, there are plenty of couples where both are severely obese or have other comorbidities, but the odds are still diminishing.

    So the number of minors who lost both biological parents is probably fairly small (four figures, at the very most), and probably outnumbered by the number of minors who lost their primary guardians, mostly grandparents.

  62. @Jack D
    @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    You're a little high on your numbers. The total # of dead from nursing homes (patients and staff combined) is 160,000 which is less than 1/3 of the total.

    https://www.aarp.org/ppi/issues/caregiving/info-2020/nursing-home-covid-dashboard.html

    I don't know what the breakdown is on staff vs. patient - I assume the vast majority were patients but the staff # was not zero so it's even less than 1/3. Also this number is for "nursing homes and other long term care facilities" (which includes places like "assisted living". ) While the average lifespan of a nursing home patient may be only 1 year, there are people who live in assisted living facilities for many years.

    The average age of a Covid victim is around 80 and the average 80 year old has a life expectancy of around 8 years so that would be a rough measure of the average # of life years lost. You could argue that Covid is picking the low hanging fruit but I don't think you could come up with a plausible # that is less than say 4 average life years lost.

    Aside from the elderly, the other group that is hardest hit by Covid are those with comorbidities. Given modern medical treatment. people with comorbidities such as obesity who died of covid might have lived for decades more.

    Replies: @Wilkey

    The average age of a Covid victim is around 80 and the average 80 year old has a life expectancy of around 8 years so that would be a rough measure of the average # of life years lost.

    When the numbers first started rolling in, along with stories about nursing home deaths, I assumed COVID was mostly picking off people in their last few months of life. If that had been the case then COVID would have been something like pneumonia, which is often referred to as “the old man’s friend” – dealing the final blow to elderly people who are in a lot of pain and misery and ready to depart this life.

    Then I started hearing of people I knew personally who died. While they were all elderly or had comorbidities, only one struck me as having one foot in the grave. The rest seemed to be in pretty decent health for their age. So yes, this disease has probably cut a year or two from the life of the average victim, at least.

    However, rereading Hernan’s comment, he only states that half the victims would have died within a year. That may very well be true. Time will tell.

  63. See https://archive.is/Ltx1z for the OP-referenced WSJ “A Toll of Coronavirus in New York Is a New Group of Orphans” article.

    I see little or no evidence in the piece for piece’s the sub-headline’s claim of “the scale of the losses is likely staggering”.

  64. @Hypnotoad666
    @jon

    The First Rule of Current Year journalism is: don't believe anything you read in Current Year Journalism.

    The only evidence these old folks died of covid is the claim of a guy trying to raise money off the fact he is supposedly an orphan of covid. Maybe they were really his grandparents. Maybe he's not even related. Maybe they didn't die of Covid.

    There is no verification of anything. So if you believe, it's only because you have chosen this as the reality you want to be true.

    Replies: @jon

    Maybe they were really his grandparents. Maybe he’s not even related.

    Given that they don’t say anything about the sister’s age, I assume she is probably much older. Him being a grandkid or other relative besides son is pretty likely.
    ETA: Also, the family sounds pretty poor, so this miracle baby at 44 for the mom would have to have been sans any modern fertility magic.

  65. If you can call a middle-aged man or woman an “orphan”, then there must be quite a few of orphaned “children” around. Most dead are over 70 years old.

  66. @MGB
    @Mike Tre

    Because he doesn’t give a shit about teen suicides, or other deaths of despair. He just wants to feel secure through the forced vaccination of others and endless debates on demographics and vaccine efficacy based on bogus numbers applied to bogus premises. It’s 50s nostalgia that there still is a competent scientific and technical elite in the West, when there clearly isn’t.

    Replies: @Travis

    Elderly folks like Sailer were fooled badly by the COVID disinformation campaign. Steve will run another 20 articles blaming BLM for the increase in Black murders but will never address the damage done by the lockdowns, which caused far more deaths and economic detruction to whites than all those Black killers across urban America. The lockdowns were an utter failure and did not stop the spread of this virus, as was predicted by the CDC and the WHO. Lockdowns do not work against a highly contagious respiratory virus. This was known before 2020 and has been confirmed across the globe. Available data reveal lockdowns have been completely ineffective at lowering positive test rates, while extracting a huge cost in terms of human suffering and societal health.

    • Agree: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Replies: @Polite Derelict
    @Travis

    Well put.

  67. @Lurker
    @Chrisnonymous

    I wonder if lots of attention to cleaning is more effective than masking. Lots of hand washing and sanitizing. While door handles, keyboards, phones, screens and suchlike are being cleaned regularly.

    I suspect that infection via hand to face contact is far more significant than airborne transmission.

    I've only been ill once 2020-21, a cold back in March yet for most of that time most people have not worn masks.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous

    Unlikely. Research out of Germany shows contact transmission is not very significant. Furthermore, Japanese people, despite stereotypes, are not particularly hygenic. They have developed a reputation for hygiene because they were more hygienic than westerners up to the 1940s or so. However, they have continued in the same practices, which include belief–even if through social convention–in the purifying nature of water. 100 years ago, believing that pouring water on things was good was beneficial. But today, it results in people tossing water on things that would be better disinfected and scrubbed. Similarly, Japanese chefs continue to make sushi with bare hands. Chefs who have adopted gloves are subject to losing customers.

    Actually, I think this is a good thing in the long term. But hand-washing leading to low Japanese COVID numbers? No.

  68. @Mike Tre
    @utu

    "This could be a rational thing to do. Possibly a universal masking could reduce annual mortality from flu epidemics more than vaccination."

    You've revealed yourself to be a nasty little Mao wanna-be. I'd dismiss you as a clown but your insect like social engineering plans have a particularly detached and evil tinge to them. I hope you don't reproduce.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous

    Indeed. utu is a special kind of evil.

  69. “With 500,000 Americans now having died from covid…”

    We’re a year into this thing, and Sailer still doesn’t grasp the difference between “dying from” and “dying with.” He still accepts the official numbers without any scrutiny whatsoever.

    He and James Thompson are apparently in a competition to see which of Unz’s HBD experts can offer the most credulously blue-pilled takes on this rather obvious scam of a pandemic.

  70. @Travis
    @MGB

    Elderly folks like Sailer were fooled badly by the COVID disinformation campaign. Steve will run another 20 articles blaming BLM for the increase in Black murders but will never address the damage done by the lockdowns, which caused far more deaths and economic detruction to whites than all those Black killers across urban America. The lockdowns were an utter failure and did not stop the spread of this virus, as was predicted by the CDC and the WHO. Lockdowns do not work against a highly contagious respiratory virus. This was known before 2020 and has been confirmed across the globe. Available data reveal lockdowns have been completely ineffective at lowering positive test rates, while extracting a huge cost in terms of human suffering and societal health.

    Replies: @Polite Derelict

    Well put.

  71. OT: reposting a PSA i made in the comments of an earlier isteve post since Steve indicated he was stopped by the WSJ paywall:

    is anyone gonna tell these boomer retards that they can read literally any paywalled article on the internet using https://archive.is/ ?

    i love you guys but you are an awfully goofy group of copyright worshipping geriatrics who need to be apprised of the utility of the aforesaid circumvention as well as http://www.outline.com which also works for most paywalled articles but with better formatting (notably not for wapo, nyt, wsj tho).

    (you should also be given a tutorial on the use of torrents but thats beyond the scope of my giving a shit.)

    information wants to be free.
    piracy is a moral duty.
    pay content creaters you like directly and eff the intermediary.

  72. so, for example, here’s the unpaywalled version of the quoted article:

    https://archive.is/Ltx1z

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