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Pretty big.
FiveThirtyEight’s finding that homicides in the 59 biggest cities were up 16% in 2015 through the first anniversary of Ferguson compared to the same time period in 2014 has been put into perspective by a website called Numbers Box:
A 16% Increase in Murders would be Unprecedented
In response to recent news articles that cited a few cities worth of evidence to show a surge in crime rates, fivethirtyeight compiled a fantastic set of 2015 data for 60 cities to ask how the murder rate has actually changed. They found the rate has risen by 16%, but oddly used that to argue that reports have been exaggerated. But 16% would be an unprecedented increase.
Of course, the odds are that the spike in homicides will be not quite as high for the whole year. But still …
To put this in perspective, there hasn’t been a double digit percent increase in annual homicides since 1990 at the peak of the Crack Wars.
What could be the problem ?
Congo Square :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SyW0AJHKvUk
If you haven't seen it, stop whatever you are doing and watch this video.
You may even have to watch it twice to understand, yes, you just watched what you thought you watched, lol!
The song and the video do NOT match, but they match for HER, apparently.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcOxhH8N3Bo
Sorry wrong link . This is Congo Square :
Any talk of a spike in homicides might get in the way of prison reform.
You know how the hayseeds are. The media class has to corral us.
I really hope that it won’t be as high when the rest of this year is added in, but if #hashtaggednonsense is anything to go by it won’t.
IMO, this is the Ferguson effect, but try to get the left to admit that….what concerns me is what is going to happen with AAs when Obama is gone, the economy is still changing in ways that are devastating to them, the chickens of 2nd gen. family breakdown come home to roost (to quote that great black leader), etc., and so on. There’s a perfect storm of horror awaiting Black America, and it will spill over onto vulnerable whites. The question is how, and where.
And Serena lost.
On a off-topic sidenote, I spotted these blog posts from Mike Smith's political commentary and from Sienervanrensburg predictions and a recent news about "Ferguson effect" in Seattle.
The homicide level about which the media gnashes it’s teeth is really just an all-black affair isn’t it? The level of murder committed by whites is actually quite low, comparable to European numbers. Perceptions about white homicide are distorted by things such as the splashy theater shootings or those who kill their families, stories which get a lot of airtime. Then there’s the television programs which always portray whites as evil and blacks as noble beings. The gangster culture is constantly being lionized which probably contributes something towards forming the black mindset. If they get the message that societal constraints are being relaxed then they’ll take it to the limit as per the officially sanctioned looting in Ferguson and Baltimore. For the vast majority of whites there is no ‘homicide rate’ about which to be worried, particularly if they don’t live or work near blacks, although an occasional one gets picked off. As has been said ‘it’s a black thang, you wouldn’t understand’.
If we assume the true expected number of murders is last year’s number to date, 2955, we can use Excel’s binomial distribution function to test the hypothesis that a 482 increase this year is just chance. The probability of this year’s outcome is 0.00000000000000000000000…%. Excel doesn’t have enough significant digits to show a value.
Another way to look at it: to get a 10% increase in murders in these large cities without a change in the underlying parameters is a one in twenty-three million event.
Not that this is a good model for murders but does show there is something to be explained.
In that guy’s graphs the 16% seems to measure a three year span, whereas all other percentages measure one year spans. Seems like not a fair comparison – am I missing something?
If the August temperature registered 1.6° above average, you know that far from poo-pooing that, the news media would predict a 160° rise over the next century.
What is the Ferguson effect? Is it blacks becoming more violent because the professional agitators are agitating them? Is it cops staying safely and blindly in their cars in order to avoid being fired and jailed for doing their jobs? Either one might do it, but I’m lost as to what is being claimed.
My guess would be a bit of both.
For the 59 cities ytd #homicides in 2014 = 2955 and 2015 = 3437, so that assuming homicides occur in Poisson fashion (mostly true, when we exclude incidents of multiple homicides) we have:
(3437-2955)/sqrt(2955) = 482/54.4 =8.9, yup just your typical everyday 9 sigma increase in the number of homicides. Nothing to see here, move along. #BlackLivesMatter
Assuming this statistical increase is black retribution for Ferguson and other (mostly) justifiable shootings of blacks by cops would be a little premature at this point. While the recent murders of mostly white cops (another one in KY this morning) are almost certainly retribution, the murder rate at large might reflect something else.
Looking at prior police records and parole info for those caught and charged to see if there’s a trend there would be useful. Remember, Holder had been pushing for shorter prison sentences for blacks before he left, and his replacement feels the same way. There might be many in the criminal justice system who are taking the plight of poor violent misunderstood black youth to heart.
Speaking of which, is there any evidence that this summer has been much hotter on average across the US? If it has, what about the correlation between the spike in homicides and the rise in average summer temperatures?
it is surprising 538 would try and use such statistics to argue the murder rate has not actually increased much….would not surprise me coming from the NY times, but they were smart enough not to attempt any analysis..
Obama’s rhetoric has been very destructive since he became President, doing great damage to African Americans by highlighting supposed racism again and again and inciting racism against whites
Every single one of these graphs starts in the 60s, I’d like to see the 50s data added in.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcOxhH8N3Bo
I’m not sure what that video has to do with the post, but that is the craziest music video ever made. Even weirder was that I made it well into my thirties without ever hearing about the wonderfulness that is the “Total Eclipse of the Heart” music video.
If you haven’t seen it, stop whatever you are doing and watch this video.
You may even have to watch it twice to understand, yes, you just watched what you thought you watched, lol!
The song and the video do NOT match, but they match for HER, apparently.
Who are the Nonblacks who are getting wealthy selling guns to urban inner city Blacks thugs?
All I can say is: “Pants up, don’t shoot!” #BlackCrimeMatters.
Official crime statistics lag a couple of years, so he doesn’t have 2013 or 2014 from official sources yet, so he’s graphing 538′s mid-year increase of 16% versus official full year to year changes from 1984-2012, which don’t get much above 12%.
One way to interpret the bar chart shown is that the 16% increase caused by Ta et al. is larger than any of the annual increases due to the spread of crack cocaine.
Perhaps we should call Ta a “crack black intellectual”.
Important to remember that similar percentage changes in the late 80s and early 90s meant fluctuations that were twice as big in total numbers (due to higher base rate). Still, 16% is a lot and should not be downplayed.
Blacks on discussion boards are complaining that the new AMC television show “Fear The Walking Dead” is not racially diverse enough and that it is too White, even though they cast a New Zealand Maori and a couple of Mexicans.
So Blacks are basically saying that all Nonblacks are not diverse. Blacks are the only diverse race on the planet. They are such egotistical narcissists. I am not surprised because this is the same race that produced Kanye West.
The value of an increase depends on who is spinning the narrative. Double digit increases in migrants, that’s a good thing. Tax increases to fund education, that’s a good thing. More criminals in jail, that’s a bad thing. Increased homicides in majority minority cities….well that’s….”Look a squirrel.”
It could be either 1)police holding back thus making gangstas bolder or 2) the media’s incitement making black people more angry so more disputes and arguments end in a killing because people are on a shorter fuse.
My guess would be a bit of both.
Peter
more gun control!
My guess would be a bit of both.
The police might be holding back, but only to an extent. In addition to patrolling their sectors they also respond to calls for assistance. There’s not much they can do to avoid responding
Peter
And Serena lost.
Does the storm of horror will also spill over Hispanics, Indians and East Asians (Chinese, Koreans, Fillipos)?
On a off-topic sidenote, I spotted these blog posts from Mike Smith’s political commentary and from Sienervanrensburg predictions and a recent news about “Ferguson effect” in Seattle.
On a off-topic sidenote, I spotted these blog posts from Mike Smith's political commentary and from Sienervanrensburg predictions and a recent news about "Ferguson effect" in Seattle.
I’m not sure what you mean. I was saying that the Ferguson effect (so called, I’d call it the Obama effect) will manifest in the black community in coming years very obviously. It’s gonna be a horror show. Not that things are so pretty now. But just you wait.
As a conflict with Hispanics, Fred Reed have some posts on the subject http://www.fredoneverything.net/Ferguson2.shtml
http://www.fredoneverything.net/Assimilation.shtml
“They are such egotistical narcissists. I am not surprised because this is the same race that produced Kanye West.”
For every Kanye West blacks “produce”, whites “create” a Strom Thurmond. So, there is really no advantage, unless, of course for the race baiters out there like yourself, Jefferson.
But even a deluded sort like you would have to admit that a race producing too many guys who think they deserve extra credit on their life test for taking care of their offspring or showing up for work every day has a tad more narcissism than the norm. Of course, it's the people like you that GIVE them the extra credit that are exacerbating the problem.
It goes beyond the homicides. Since medical care is always getting better, there is likely a 20-30% increase in aggravated assaults. These numbers are huge, and medical care is masking. I’d like to see increase in shootings. Like a bit more than 16%.
Anyway, Obama has blood on his hands.
For every Kanye West blacks "produce", whites "create" a Strom Thurmond. So, there is really no advantage, unless, of course for the race baiters out there like yourself, Jefferson.
A Donald Trump would be more apt. For every Thurmond, there are three Farrakhans.
But even a deluded sort like you would have to admit that a race producing too many guys who think they deserve extra credit on their life test for taking care of their offspring or showing up for work every day has a tad more narcissism than the norm. Of course, it’s the people like you that GIVE them the extra credit that are exacerbating the problem.
“For every Thurmond, there are three Farrakhans.”
[Laughs] that’s exactly what a race baiter states.
“But even a deluded sort like you would have to admit that a race producing too many guys who think they deserve extra credit on their life test for taking care of their offspring or showing up for work every day has a tad more narcissism than the norm.”
Yeah, whites are known for cutting corners and believing in their own press clippings.
“Of course, it’s the people like you that GIVE them the extra credit that are exacerbating the problem.”
I’m not giving anyone extra credit, son. Indeed, a number of the problems among the black population are self-inflicted, but there are extenuating circumstances.
When I mentionned the Koreans, I thought mainly of the ones who protected their stores during the LA Riots of 1992.
As a conflict with Hispanics, Fred Reed have some posts on the subject http://www.fredoneverything.net/Ferguson2.shtml
http://www.fredoneverything.net/Assimilation.shtml