Hillary's 2016 Strategy Against Trump in Michigan: Don't Mention the Election!
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From the new book Shattered: Inside Hillary’s Doomed Campaign about the 2016 run by Hillary Clinton, history’s best-qualified Presidential candidate.
(From Jeff Stein at Vox)
Surprisingly, a reasonably balanced piece…
OT: LA Times, 04/20/17 – Immigrants flooded California construction. Worker pay sank. Here’s why
"half citizen, half immigrant": Are citizens and immigrants disjoint sets? Are no immigrants citizens?
Steve, if you’re reading the book, I hope you’ll post a review when you’re done.
It would take a heart of stone not to laugh at this.
OT: LA Times, 04/20/17 - Immigrants flooded California construction. Worker pay sank. Here’s whyReplies: @Steve Sailer, @Charles Erwin Wilson, @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY)
No mention of blacks in the whole article, though.
So, basically, Mook’s clique took the lesson to be: campaign anywhere but the battleground states.
That’s so incredibly stupid it sounds…incredibly stupid.
Of course, if they had all unionized they could have had some type of recourse. Or did they all sign away what few rights they had? ;pReplies: @Lugash
A couple weeks after the election there was an article (Daily Beast? Daily Caller maybe?) where it recounted how Dem operatives in Michigan told campaign HQ that they needed to get more money and volunteers in Michigan, Hillary needed a better ground game to win Michigan. HQ refused. No they said, let's keep up efforts in Iowa (where their own internals had them losing by 5-7 points). That will fake Trump out, make him think we are competitive there.
So yes, quite stupid. Hillary's HQ dumped money and time into states they had in the bag and states they were pretty confident they'd lose, and just took it for granted that divine providence and gender-neutral deities would deliver victory in the states on the fence.
That's so incredibly stupid it sounds...incredibly stupid.Replies: @Ivy, @Barnard, @Jack D, @IAmCorn
As more observations filter out about the failed Democrat campaign, here is one of the trends. The people involved seem like they are all suffering from emotional abuse from the mouth (and hands? Hide your cell phones!) of their candidate.
Of course, if they had all unionized they could have had some type of recourse. Or did they all sign away what few rights they had? ;p
I think Primary Colors was an accurate description of the WJC election machine. Didn't the Hillary character go into a plate throwing rage in one of the scenes?Replies: @Ivy
That's so incredibly stupid it sounds...incredibly stupid.Replies: @Ivy, @Barnard, @Jack D, @IAmCorn
They didn’t consider Michigan a battleground state. They thought if they ignored the white working class they would stay home while Hillary could still pull the same level of support Obama did among minority voters. No wonder Bill wanted to fire Mook.
Can you imagine the seething that inspired Bill to throw hurl his cell phone off the building? Here you have his wife who only ever won an election due to her opponent dying in a light plane crash, and Robbie Mook who was still wet behind the ears wilfully ignoring the advice of a two term POTUS and former Governor. What the hell would Bill know about how to win an election? Lol, all the stars were truly aligned for the 2016 election of Trump.Replies: @Gary in Gramercy, @James Kabala
Martinez makes much of his money on the side, often earning more than $500 in a day on jobs over the weekend and after regular work hours…
We see this a lot in Texas. These guys do jobs on the side using the trucks and equipment of their bosses. They’ll hand you a business card with the Anglo name scratched out and their name and cell phone written in, and tell you to call them directly.
All through the General, there was an inverse relation between how much she was exposed to the public and her standing in the polls. The more appearances she made, the more people learned/remembered how much they hate her, and her poll standings would sink …
Hillary didn’t have much to offer non college educated whites.
To conclude her best chance was to rely on the black urban base, let Trump be Trump, and slide by with what their polling indicated would be a modest lead? It was a strategy.
The election was close enough that dozens of things could have swung it. My personal favorite is her opposition to fracking ruined her in Pennsylvania. It was unforced, since she was sorta, officially not against it. But she had to come out and say that after she was through with properly regulating it, there wouldn’t be much left. Why? Unconventional oil and gas is bigger than coal, in my opinion. And there was never really any reason for Obama to pile on coal. It is being killed by natural gas prices. But he put his thumb on the scale and forced firms like Peabody into bankruptcy a year or two before it was necessary.
The official green view is that natural gas is the bridge fuel — from coal to — the unknown but miracle clean fuel of 2050. Hillary had the greens without any pandering.
Meanwhile, Gary Coen was shown extensively on Bloomberg today. Here is one clip: https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/videos/2017-04-20/cohn-says-white-house-will-permit-more-lng-plants-video
Overall, he looked great, highly rational,efficient, effective and every other Trump alleged defect while laying out the Trump strategy. Bloomberg has been weird lately, as they seem to go out of their way to at times to show him in the worst possible light.
In terms of specifics, a few weeks ago they interviewed Wilber Ross who also acquitted himself well. The Japanese don’t want to negotiate with him and have requested that Pence take his place.
Coen kept emphasizing that every policy area they are working on ties directly into Trump’s campaign message. He was on for over 1/2 hour.
The one thing he emphasized on regulation (over regulation) is that ‘personnel is policy’ and that major changes can be made simply by getting more reasonable regulators. Specifically, the CCAR is a Dodd Frank mandate, but it has been used more like waterboarding than an objective capital adequacy test. Nothing needs to change except a new regulator (who is coming soon) that will perform the tests in an straightforward and unbiased manner.
That's so incredibly stupid it sounds...incredibly stupid.Replies: @Ivy, @Barnard, @Jack D, @IAmCorn
Because working class whites are so stupid and nodded out that they wouldn’t notice that there was a Presidential election as long as Hillary didn’t draw their attention to it. No one has any agency but Democrat overlords.
Isn’t there a kernel of truth to this? Hillary’s issues are not in touch with the white working class, and if she would have had to debate Trump over trade and immigration, she would have poked the sleeping bear.
So perhaps if she had campaigned harder in the Great Lakes, she would have lost by an even greater margins as more would-be voters would have learned that she was in support of the policies that had gutted those areas.
If Hillary and the democrats still cared about the working man, like your grandfather’s democrat party, she wouldn’t have had anything to fear in those states.
To conclude her best chance was to rely on the black urban base, let Trump be Trump, and slide by with what their polling indicated would be a modest lead? It was a strategy.
The election was close enough that dozens of things could have swung it. My personal favorite is her opposition to fracking ruined her in Pennsylvania. It was unforced, since she was sorta, officially not against it. But she had to come out and say that after she was through with properly regulating it, there wouldn't be much left. Why? Unconventional oil and gas is bigger than coal, in my opinion. And there was never really any reason for Obama to pile on coal. It is being killed by natural gas prices. But he put his thumb on the scale and forced firms like Peabody into bankruptcy a year or two before it was necessary.
The official green view is that natural gas is the bridge fuel -- from coal to -- the unknown but miracle clean fuel of 2050. Hillary had the greens without any pandering.
Meanwhile, Gary Coen was shown extensively on Bloomberg today. Here is one clip: https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/videos/2017-04-20/cohn-says-white-house-will-permit-more-lng-plants-video
Overall, he looked great, highly rational,efficient, effective and every other Trump alleged defect while laying out the Trump strategy. Bloomberg has been weird lately, as they seem to go out of their way to at times to show him in the worst possible light.
In terms of specifics, a few weeks ago they interviewed Wilber Ross who also acquitted himself well. The Japanese don't want to negotiate with him and have requested that Pence take his place.
Coen kept emphasizing that every policy area they are working on ties directly into Trump's campaign message. He was on for over 1/2 hour.
The one thing he emphasized on regulation (over regulation) is that 'personnel is policy' and that major changes can be made simply by getting more reasonable regulators. Specifically, the CCAR is a Dodd Frank mandate, but it has been used more like waterboarding than an objective capital adequacy test. Nothing needs to change except a new regulator (who is coming soon) that will perform the tests in an straightforward and unbiased manner.Replies: @Steve Sailer
Fracking seems like something that can be regulated well at the state level. California doesn’t allow it, while Pennsylvania does.
Pennsylvania is the only blue state in the list. Traditional big production states Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana are familiar with the industry and have infrastructure and regulatory processes in place to be development friendly.
It's also tax revenue which makes it less of a theoretical argument. State governments will take it where it finds it -- Lottery? Other gambling? Not a problem.
Intrastate pipelines are regulated at the state level. Interstate? FERC. Right now, the unconventional oil industry is focused on the Permian in TX as the lowest cost source of oil. The economics of dry gas are a bit different, and the PA Marcellus is competitive at surprisingly low prices.
The producers (E&P) are trying to get their costs as low as possible, and a robust infrastructure including pipelines and gas and liquids processing is either in place or less expensive there. The Gulf is also booming with processing businesses, which vary from refining to production of chemical feedstock and finished chemicals.
The Permian is now claiming mid $20's/bbl as a breakeven price. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-company-breakeven-prices-tumbling-4-top-permian-basin-stocks-to-buy-now-2017-02-01
They tend to use non standard accounting, but these are probably reasonable cash break even prices (ignoring various longer term investments) and the business mentality is to drill until they are out of cash.
The 2009 stimulus bill was around $500 billion. Unconventional Oil capital expenditures is around $200 billion per year and has been for the last decade. Its not easy to get anything remotely like a 'clean' figure for this, but the so called midstream infrastructure is maybe $100 billion/year. Including big pipelines, little pipelines, lots of cost for natural gas processing, storage, terminals, docks, etc. A lot of studies don't combine upstream and midstream, or they spend a lot of effort on the various knock on effects of the spending. Finally, it has cleared up close to half the peak US balance of payments deficit.
The industry developed in response to $100-$150 bbl oil. I'm not sure that the core industry will have reasonable returns on investment, but they generate a lot of economic activity. A lot of smaller players have gone bankrupt. But that simply wipes out debt and someone else picks up the better pieces and goes back to it. The US is essentially energy independent, and US industry will have a cost advantage in energy inputs. It is also the only thing that provided significant growth after the collapse of the housing bubble.
California, no doubt, is above it for now. But if their public pensions start to collapse, maybe it will start to look good. As far as I'm concerned, if any country is going to be using hydrocarbons, including coal, I would prefer it to be done in the US. We have among the best environmental standards. Maybe Germany or Norway or somewhere does better, but they aren't an option. We import basic materials made using 3rd world coal (and I'm including China's older, state owned plants).
As far as Hillary, the current Trump stock market boom has a lot to do with simple, expected recovery that was delayed by the 2015-2016 oil and basic materials price collapse and the strong US dollar. Trump's perceived pro business bias also raised the animal spirits from the dead -- which never would have happened under Hillary. Trump doesn't even need to be pro business -- just less anti business.Replies: @Steve Sailer
OT: LA Times, 04/20/17 - Immigrants flooded California construction. Worker pay sank. Here’s whyReplies: @Steve Sailer, @Charles Erwin Wilson, @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY)
And the rich got richer.
Of course, if they had all unionized they could have had some type of recourse. Or did they all sign away what few rights they had? ;pReplies: @Lugash
My guess is that it’s like the partner/associate law firm model, but without the structure. People on the bottom slave away sucking up the abuse, hoping to get a government sinecure if their candidate wins, and then become a Podesta/Mook/Brazile honcho after putting in the time. Mook is probably getting shit on in part since he ascended to power so early. It’s an adhoc, contract job though, so any demands from the bottom to the top will get you cut out.
I think Primary Colors was an accurate description of the WJC election machine. Didn’t the Hillary character go into a plate throwing rage in one of the scenes?
B: Don't throw the furniture, we'll need that back in Little Rock!
H: What, so you can bring more of your bimbos around? (Hurls plates and cups)
Because working class whites want JOBS not WELFARE, and they want LOWER taxes not HIGHER????
No wonder Bill wanted to fire Mook.
Can you imagine the seething that inspired Bill to throw hurl his cell phone off the building? Here you have his wife who only ever won an election due to her opponent dying in a light plane crash, and Robbie Mook who was still wet behind the ears wilfully ignoring the advice of a two term POTUS and former Governor. What the hell would Bill know about how to win an election? Lol, all the stars were truly aligned for the 2016 election of Trump.
To whom are you referring here? Hillary won her New York U.S. Senate seat in 2000 over Republican Rick Lazio (Rudy Giuliani was going to run, but his prostate cancer and marital woes intervened). There was no Democratic primary, as then NYS Democratic chairman Judith Hope cleared the field for HRC.
Which of Hillary's opponents -- real or potential -- died in a plane crash?Replies: @Bastion, @InsideLaLaland
Hillary is going to run again in 2020.
https://youtu.be/2ILqbD6XXkA
I think Primary Colors was an accurate description of the WJC election machine. Didn't the Hillary character go into a plate throwing rage in one of the scenes?Replies: @Ivy
It is easy to imagine the Bill and Hill interchanges:
B: Don’t throw the furniture, we’ll need that back in Little Rock!
H: What, so you can bring more of your bimbos around? (Hurls plates and cups)
You mean, she’s going to run for office dead, like El Cid’s last charge, propped up dead on his horse?
Another quote:
I think the problem was that Hillary was such an unappealing character that showing her face REDUCED her numbers. For this same reason, they were only able to run negative ads – Hillary is such a damaged brand that it was impossible to run Hillary’s numbers UP with advertising, they could only try to run Trump’s DOWN even lower than hers.
That's so incredibly stupid it sounds...incredibly stupid.Replies: @Ivy, @Barnard, @Jack D, @IAmCorn
Yup. Stupid. Remember Donna Brazile pouring campaign funds into deep blue cities and states? Didn’t want Hillary “winning the Electoral College but losing the popular vote”!
A couple weeks after the election there was an article (Daily Beast? Daily Caller maybe?) where it recounted how Dem operatives in Michigan told campaign HQ that they needed to get more money and volunteers in Michigan, Hillary needed a better ground game to win Michigan. HQ refused. No they said, let’s keep up efforts in Iowa (where their own internals had them losing by 5-7 points). That will fake Trump out, make him think we are competitive there.
So yes, quite stupid. Hillary’s HQ dumped money and time into states they had in the bag and states they were pretty confident they’d lose, and just took it for granted that divine providence and gender-neutral deities would deliver victory in the states on the fence.
Fracking already -is- well regulated at the state level. There are more than a few shaleionaires in PA, WV, and OH. I know some of them.
Can you imagine the seething that inspired Bill to throw hurl his cell phone off the building? Here you have his wife who only ever won an election due to her opponent dying in a light plane crash, and Robbie Mook who was still wet behind the ears wilfully ignoring the advice of a two term POTUS and former Governor. What the hell would Bill know about how to win an election? Lol, all the stars were truly aligned for the 2016 election of Trump.Replies: @Gary in Gramercy, @James Kabala
“Here you have his wife who only ever won an election due to her opponent dying in a light plane crash,…”
To whom are you referring here? Hillary won her New York U.S. Senate seat in 2000 over Republican Rick Lazio (Rudy Giuliani was going to run, but his prostate cancer and marital woes intervened). There was no Democratic primary, as then NYS Democratic chairman Judith Hope cleared the field for HRC.
Which of Hillary’s opponents — real or potential — died in a plane crash?
Pennsylvania has been doing pretty well over the last decade. Unlike Ohio, it didn’t get hammered by the Mortgage Mess because Pennsylvania regulators were pretty cynical about mortgage lenders. And it’s been more accommodating to fracking than, say, New York State, so a lot of landowners have been getting checks for their mineral rights.
I’m not wholly confident that fracking will turn out to be wholly benign environmentally, but it seems like a stupid thing for candidate Hillary to meddle in.
The worst of it is the Canadian Tar Sands, which the sanctimonious Canadians can deal with. As much as they would like clean hands, they are just another nation that is dependent on exports from extractive industry.
I would like to see more intensive conservation efforts, but the public seems uninterested in any sort of sacrifice. Especially the celebrity greens with their massive carbon footprints.
The choices are the old peak oil with the associated economic disaster porn. Fracking keeps us out of paying KSA and Islamic barbarians $150/bbl to promote anti American ideology, etc.
The US developed this industry with private capital and a under temperamentally hostile Federal regulatory structure. The price collapse has incentivized the industry to become extremely innovative with respect to cost reductions, and no one predicted the massive reduction in production costs.
And for Russia haters, Putin is an opponent and has put his powerful propaganda apparatus to work opposing it wherever possible. It is rumored that he has directly funded green NGO's in Europe as well as Ukraine.
Ukraine actually has resources, but simply doesn't have the economy or institutions to develop it. Unfortunately, there was some exploration in Romania, but it didn't pan out. The rest of Europe is too ideological green to do much.
In the not too distant future, it will be as unthinkable to fight over oil as it is to imagine fighting over coal.Replies: @Mr. Anon, @TWS
Can you imagine the seething that inspired Bill to throw hurl his cell phone off the building? Here you have his wife who only ever won an election due to her opponent dying in a light plane crash, and Robbie Mook who was still wet behind the ears wilfully ignoring the advice of a two term POTUS and former Governor. What the hell would Bill know about how to win an election? Lol, all the stars were truly aligned for the 2016 election of Trump.Replies: @Gary in Gramercy, @James Kabala
? Rick Lazio is alive and well and was never exactly an impressive candidate to begin with. Are you somehow confusing him with Mel Carnahan?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_F._Kennedy_Jr.Replies: @Captain Tripps, @Jim Don Bob
And Missouri with New York.
That’s what I thought at first, but Carnahan’s widow Jean stepped in, and beat GOP incumbent John Ashcroft to win the Missouri U.S. Senate seat in 2000. The only remotely close analogy is Paul Wellstone’s untimely death in Minnesota in 2002, leading to Norm Coleman’s victory over stand-in Walter Mondale to win that Senate race.
Feel the Well. Feel the 'Stone.
OT: LA Times, 04/20/17 - Immigrants flooded California construction. Worker pay sank. Here’s whyReplies: @Steve Sailer, @Charles Erwin Wilson, @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY)
“The immigrant entrants shifted the balance of the local union from around 80% native-born Americans to half citizen, half immigrant”
“half citizen, half immigrant”: Are citizens and immigrants disjoint sets? Are no immigrants citizens?
My first thought was JFK Jr, timing works out.
But John-John had no way of knowing another aviation incident (9/11) would intervene in the meantime, and that Pataki's poll numbers would be unbeatable, even by a Kennedy.
But even if he had chosen the Senate race instead, there were other states Hillary could have parachuted into.
To whom are you referring here? Hillary won her New York U.S. Senate seat in 2000 over Republican Rick Lazio (Rudy Giuliani was going to run, but his prostate cancer and marital woes intervened). There was no Democratic primary, as then NYS Democratic chairman Judith Hope cleared the field for HRC.
Which of Hillary's opponents -- real or potential -- died in a plane crash?Replies: @Bastion, @InsideLaLaland
I presume he means JFK Jr. If not for his crash, he would have been the one steam rolling Rick Lazio.
Never mention Mel Carnahan!
To whom are you referring here? Hillary won her New York U.S. Senate seat in 2000 over Republican Rick Lazio (Rudy Giuliani was going to run, but his prostate cancer and marital woes intervened). There was no Democratic primary, as then NYS Democratic chairman Judith Hope cleared the field for HRC.
Which of Hillary's opponents -- real or potential -- died in a plane crash?Replies: @Bastion, @InsideLaLaland
JFK, Jr.
John F Kennedy Jr may have been considering a run for the Senate to replace Daniel Patrick Moynihan before he was killed in a light plane crash in 1999.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_F._Kennedy_Jr.
Then three months later in October, pro golfer Payne Stewart and 5 others died when their Learjet depressurized at altitude, causing incapacitating hypoxia and loss of consciousness of all on board. I remember that because Stewart won the U.S. Open in June at Pinehurst (one of my favorite courses), and played in September on the Ryder Cup team that came from behind on the last day to win the trophy after Justin Leonard holed a 45-foot birdie putt.
https://youtu.be/nhoEd6mF_hk?t=2m42s
The huge assumption here is that initiating fractures in the earth’s crust has zero effect outside the political jurisdiction in which they are executed.
Think about that, Steve, then get back to us.
Most states are pretty big.
We took the kids to State College, PA today to tour the Penn State campus and we’re flabbergasted by the place. The buildings are mostly new, beautiful and immaculate, while the sports facilities are amazing. The campus is enormous but well run. Seems like PA is doing something right.
The wrestling team, this year, won 5 weight classes in a row! - first time in US history, in the NCAA finals in St. Louis. Needless to say, Penn State won the NCAA tournament.
Here are the (red) states with all the gas and oil: http://www.api.org/~/media/files/news/2015/15-may/state-rankings-among-top-energy-producing-nations-may-2015.pdf
Pennsylvania is the only blue state in the list. Traditional big production states Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana are familiar with the industry and have infrastructure and regulatory processes in place to be development friendly.
It’s also tax revenue which makes it less of a theoretical argument. State governments will take it where it finds it — Lottery? Other gambling? Not a problem.
Intrastate pipelines are regulated at the state level. Interstate? FERC. Right now, the unconventional oil industry is focused on the Permian in TX as the lowest cost source of oil. The economics of dry gas are a bit different, and the PA Marcellus is competitive at surprisingly low prices.
The producers (E&P) are trying to get their costs as low as possible, and a robust infrastructure including pipelines and gas and liquids processing is either in place or less expensive there. The Gulf is also booming with processing businesses, which vary from refining to production of chemical feedstock and finished chemicals.
The Permian is now claiming mid $20’s/bbl as a breakeven price. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-company-breakeven-prices-tumbling-4-top-permian-basin-stocks-to-buy-now-2017-02-01
They tend to use non standard accounting, but these are probably reasonable cash break even prices (ignoring various longer term investments) and the business mentality is to drill until they are out of cash.
The 2009 stimulus bill was around $500 billion. Unconventional Oil capital expenditures is around $200 billion per year and has been for the last decade. Its not easy to get anything remotely like a ‘clean’ figure for this, but the so called midstream infrastructure is maybe $100 billion/year. Including big pipelines, little pipelines, lots of cost for natural gas processing, storage, terminals, docks, etc. A lot of studies don’t combine upstream and midstream, or they spend a lot of effort on the various knock on effects of the spending. Finally, it has cleared up close to half the peak US balance of payments deficit.
The industry developed in response to $100-$150 bbl oil. I’m not sure that the core industry will have reasonable returns on investment, but they generate a lot of economic activity. A lot of smaller players have gone bankrupt. But that simply wipes out debt and someone else picks up the better pieces and goes back to it. The US is essentially energy independent, and US industry will have a cost advantage in energy inputs. It is also the only thing that provided significant growth after the collapse of the housing bubble.
California, no doubt, is above it for now. But if their public pensions start to collapse, maybe it will start to look good. As far as I’m concerned, if any country is going to be using hydrocarbons, including coal, I would prefer it to be done in the US. We have among the best environmental standards. Maybe Germany or Norway or somewhere does better, but they aren’t an option. We import basic materials made using 3rd world coal (and I’m including China’s older, state owned plants).
As far as Hillary, the current Trump stock market boom has a lot to do with simple, expected recovery that was delayed by the 2015-2016 oil and basic materials price collapse and the strong US dollar. Trump’s perceived pro business bias also raised the animal spirits from the dead — which never would have happened under Hillary. Trump doesn’t even need to be pro business — just less anti business.
hmmm. Fracking can be easier in granite heavy states like in the Northeast. Oklahoma, with red rock/sand soil/sedimentary stone, is having a lot of earthquakes. California would fall into the Pacific! Ok, I know, I know…duh, I’m not a geologist…but sheesh, fracking in CA, fougetaboudid. My family members are so worried about earthquakes in CA…is there truth to that?
Pennsylvania is the only blue state in the list. Traditional big production states Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana are familiar with the industry and have infrastructure and regulatory processes in place to be development friendly.
It's also tax revenue which makes it less of a theoretical argument. State governments will take it where it finds it -- Lottery? Other gambling? Not a problem.
Intrastate pipelines are regulated at the state level. Interstate? FERC. Right now, the unconventional oil industry is focused on the Permian in TX as the lowest cost source of oil. The economics of dry gas are a bit different, and the PA Marcellus is competitive at surprisingly low prices.
The producers (E&P) are trying to get their costs as low as possible, and a robust infrastructure including pipelines and gas and liquids processing is either in place or less expensive there. The Gulf is also booming with processing businesses, which vary from refining to production of chemical feedstock and finished chemicals.
The Permian is now claiming mid $20's/bbl as a breakeven price. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-company-breakeven-prices-tumbling-4-top-permian-basin-stocks-to-buy-now-2017-02-01
They tend to use non standard accounting, but these are probably reasonable cash break even prices (ignoring various longer term investments) and the business mentality is to drill until they are out of cash.
The 2009 stimulus bill was around $500 billion. Unconventional Oil capital expenditures is around $200 billion per year and has been for the last decade. Its not easy to get anything remotely like a 'clean' figure for this, but the so called midstream infrastructure is maybe $100 billion/year. Including big pipelines, little pipelines, lots of cost for natural gas processing, storage, terminals, docks, etc. A lot of studies don't combine upstream and midstream, or they spend a lot of effort on the various knock on effects of the spending. Finally, it has cleared up close to half the peak US balance of payments deficit.
The industry developed in response to $100-$150 bbl oil. I'm not sure that the core industry will have reasonable returns on investment, but they generate a lot of economic activity. A lot of smaller players have gone bankrupt. But that simply wipes out debt and someone else picks up the better pieces and goes back to it. The US is essentially energy independent, and US industry will have a cost advantage in energy inputs. It is also the only thing that provided significant growth after the collapse of the housing bubble.
California, no doubt, is above it for now. But if their public pensions start to collapse, maybe it will start to look good. As far as I'm concerned, if any country is going to be using hydrocarbons, including coal, I would prefer it to be done in the US. We have among the best environmental standards. Maybe Germany or Norway or somewhere does better, but they aren't an option. We import basic materials made using 3rd world coal (and I'm including China's older, state owned plants).
As far as Hillary, the current Trump stock market boom has a lot to do with simple, expected recovery that was delayed by the 2015-2016 oil and basic materials price collapse and the strong US dollar. Trump's perceived pro business bias also raised the animal spirits from the dead -- which never would have happened under Hillary. Trump doesn't even need to be pro business -- just less anti business.Replies: @Steve Sailer
The energy industry has pretty much saved the American economy after 2008.
The ECB, Bank of Japan, the Chinese central bank, Bank of England, the Federal Reserve Bank and other globalized central banks have all conjured up trillions of currency units. This is what has kept the dead-man-walking global financial system from expiring. The global financial system should be allowed to expire. That is when mass immigration will end and mass deportations will begin.
The oil and gas industry in the United States has made good use of the easy credit and cheap money from the central banks. Taking a chance on oil and gas extraction seems better than using the cheap money from central banks to reinflate the stock, bond and real estate bubbles.
Penn State is a great U. Penn State produces the most amount of entrepreneurs…kid you not. They have the largest and most active/friendly alumni association. BTW, I have no connection to PS, but have many friends and friends’ children who thrived there.
The wrestling team, this year, won 5 weight classes in a row! – first time in US history, in the NCAA finals in St. Louis. Needless to say, Penn State won the NCAA tournament.
yea … It’s hard to love it. It’s no worse than coal, and it eliminates oil as a reason for nations to fight and die. The standard anti fracking propaganda is baseless and fake (I’m referring to Hollywood movies). Not to say there aren’t real problems, many of which can be improved upon.
The worst of it is the Canadian Tar Sands, which the sanctimonious Canadians can deal with. As much as they would like clean hands, they are just another nation that is dependent on exports from extractive industry.
I would like to see more intensive conservation efforts, but the public seems uninterested in any sort of sacrifice. Especially the celebrity greens with their massive carbon footprints.
The choices are the old peak oil with the associated economic disaster porn. Fracking keeps us out of paying KSA and Islamic barbarians $150/bbl to promote anti American ideology, etc.
The US developed this industry with private capital and a under temperamentally hostile Federal regulatory structure. The price collapse has incentivized the industry to become extremely innovative with respect to cost reductions, and no one predicted the massive reduction in production costs.
And for Russia haters, Putin is an opponent and has put his powerful propaganda apparatus to work opposing it wherever possible. It is rumored that he has directly funded green NGO’s in Europe as well as Ukraine.
Ukraine actually has resources, but simply doesn’t have the economy or institutions to develop it. Unfortunately, there was some exploration in Romania, but it didn’t pan out. The rest of Europe is too ideological green to do much.
In the not too distant future, it will be as unthinkable to fight over oil as it is to imagine fighting over coal.
In much of America, $40/hr would qualify one as “rich”. Where I’ve lived, so would $27.50.
Wellstone was the Bernie Sanders of the 1990s. Right down to the gushing goyish fan club.
Feel the Well. Feel the ‘Stone.
Best of all, Mr Sandusky has transferred to another state institution.
By the way, why isn’t Pennsylvania Commonwealth University? Like in Virginia?
Daily Mail on First Daughter’s Ego Trip to Germany *:
*After all spicer & honey fluff, the real cherry comes is in the last paragraph:
Because Ecumenism Is Meant To Be Only Goyim’s Favorite Pastime, And After Hours Holiday-Crossover Mingling Is Strictly Torah! Torah! Torah! Verboten For All Pure Souls
Who Don’t Bomb On Shabbos.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C9o89d2XUAETRwx.jpg
Sailer’s 2017. Strategy Pro Trump : Don’t Mention Nepotism & Tribalism !
Blacks are simply not a reliable voting block. The Dems have kept their eyes off the culture. If they didn’t, they’d notice that African-Americans are declining culturally. Young AAs are further confined to social media or thuggery, they’re just by into politics, society or much of anything.
Are you somehow confusing him with Mel Carnahan?
And Missouri with New York.
Apparently though, at the time of his 1999 death, John-John had decided to skip the Senate race in 2000 and gear up for a run against George Pataki as Governor in 2002.
But John-John had no way of knowing another aviation incident (9/11) would intervene in the meantime, and that Pataki’s poll numbers would be unbeatable, even by a Kennedy.
But even if he had chosen the Senate race instead, there were other states Hillary could have parachuted into.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_F._Kennedy_Jr.Replies: @Captain Tripps, @Jim Don Bob
That was a weird year for small plane crashes and celebrities. First JFK Jr. dies in July while flying and getting disoriented at night. And don’t forget his wife and and sister-in-law died in the crash as well.
Then three months later in October, pro golfer Payne Stewart and 5 others died when their Learjet depressurized at altitude, causing incapacitating hypoxia and loss of consciousness of all on board. I remember that because Stewart won the U.S. Open in June at Pinehurst (one of my favorite courses), and played in September on the Ryder Cup team that came from behind on the last day to win the trophy after Justin Leonard holed a 45-foot birdie putt.
Sailer’s 2017. Strategy Pro Trump : Don’t Mention Nepotism & Tribalism !
Very incisive Steve, non economists tend not to notice that, happened in spite of Obama too. Strip out energy and the US economy has done dreadfully, although your banks are now back solvent.
Mook is a perfect example of what happens when mediocre white men are given power and great responsibility
E.g. US DOJ 2009-2016.
Incompetence starts at the top; Hillary has always been a hapless, ham-handed nincompoop. She could be the cover-girl for the Dunning-Kruger effect.
The worst of it is the Canadian Tar Sands, which the sanctimonious Canadians can deal with. As much as they would like clean hands, they are just another nation that is dependent on exports from extractive industry.
I would like to see more intensive conservation efforts, but the public seems uninterested in any sort of sacrifice. Especially the celebrity greens with their massive carbon footprints.
The choices are the old peak oil with the associated economic disaster porn. Fracking keeps us out of paying KSA and Islamic barbarians $150/bbl to promote anti American ideology, etc.
The US developed this industry with private capital and a under temperamentally hostile Federal regulatory structure. The price collapse has incentivized the industry to become extremely innovative with respect to cost reductions, and no one predicted the massive reduction in production costs.
And for Russia haters, Putin is an opponent and has put his powerful propaganda apparatus to work opposing it wherever possible. It is rumored that he has directly funded green NGO's in Europe as well as Ukraine.
Ukraine actually has resources, but simply doesn't have the economy or institutions to develop it. Unfortunately, there was some exploration in Romania, but it didn't pan out. The rest of Europe is too ideological green to do much.
In the not too distant future, it will be as unthinkable to fight over oil as it is to imagine fighting over coal.Replies: @Mr. Anon, @TWS
It is not immediately apparent that fracking is no worse than coal. The long term effects of fracking on ground-waters are unknown.
My relatively intelligent brother believes this shite because he heard it on the Today Show, that fount of all that is Right and True.Replies: @Mr. Anon
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_F._Kennedy_Jr.Replies: @Captain Tripps, @Jim Don Bob
John F Kennedy Jr may have been considering a run for the Senate to replace Daniel Patrick Moynihan before he killed himself, his wife, and her sister by flying in bad weather and not turning on his instruments. Every pilot I knew said the same thing. “Dumb shit”.
Only if the well completion company doesn’t properly put a concrete sleeve in the well at groundwater level. Most fracking happens below that.
Texas City Refinery Explosion
or use a drilling platform with a faulty blowout preventer. Those things just don't happen.
The worst of it is the Canadian Tar Sands, which the sanctimonious Canadians can deal with. As much as they would like clean hands, they are just another nation that is dependent on exports from extractive industry.
I would like to see more intensive conservation efforts, but the public seems uninterested in any sort of sacrifice. Especially the celebrity greens with their massive carbon footprints.
The choices are the old peak oil with the associated economic disaster porn. Fracking keeps us out of paying KSA and Islamic barbarians $150/bbl to promote anti American ideology, etc.
The US developed this industry with private capital and a under temperamentally hostile Federal regulatory structure. The price collapse has incentivized the industry to become extremely innovative with respect to cost reductions, and no one predicted the massive reduction in production costs.
And for Russia haters, Putin is an opponent and has put his powerful propaganda apparatus to work opposing it wherever possible. It is rumored that he has directly funded green NGO's in Europe as well as Ukraine.
Ukraine actually has resources, but simply doesn't have the economy or institutions to develop it. Unfortunately, there was some exploration in Romania, but it didn't pan out. The rest of Europe is too ideological green to do much.
In the not too distant future, it will be as unthinkable to fight over oil as it is to imagine fighting over coal.Replies: @Mr. Anon, @TWS
You write ‘unknown’ when you mean ‘De minimis’.
*After all spicer & honey fluff, the real cherry comes is in the last paragraph:Because Ecumenism Is Meant To Be Only Goyim's Favorite Pastime, And After Hours Holiday-Crossover Mingling Is Strictly Torah! Torah! Torah! Verboten For All Pure Souls
Who Don't Bomb On Shabbos.Replies: @bored identity
Here We Go…down the multi-schmulti drain:
What crawls around, kush-lashes around:
I know that reading a whole article could be a hard task for his trumpauthisticly captured psyche.
Calling The Orangutan from Queens for what he is : a volatile, capricious, opportunistic, Real Estatesman in Chief that, according to Patrick Buchanan, had his embarrassing Jerry,Jerry, Jerry-white -trash-kissing-triple-patentheses-ring-of-power-moment has to be a new, and devastating carnal knowledge experience to CK.
Is Patrick troll, too?
And , again FYI, this article comes directly from a Godfather of Paleoconservatism.
It was not a question of turning on the instruments. AFAIK, all the instruments (artificial horizon, altimeter, etc.) on his plane were on and working when he flew the plane into the ocean. But Kennedy was not instrument rated – he was only qualified to fly under visual flight rules (flying the plane the same way you drive a car – by seeing where you are going). It takes a lot of training to overcome your natural instinct to orient yourself by your eyes and sense of balance and to learn to trust and fly by the little gauges instead. If the natural horizon is obscured due to haze or fog and you are flying over featureless water then it is remarkably easy to lose track of which way is the ocean and which way is the sky and become “spatially disoriented”.
As a rich kid, he was also flying too much airplane for his level of training – it was like giving a 16yr old a Ferrari – it’s just a matter of time before they wrap it around a pole.
John-john was not the sharpest pencil in the drawer – flunked the NY Bar exam twice and he was also an adrenaline junkie (at the time of the crash he was recovering from breaking his ankle in a paragliding accident). Stupid and bold are a dangerous combination. More mature pilots stayed grounded that night. He also could have flown along the coast where he could have seen the lights on the ground instead of taking a shortcut over open dark water. They say that there are old pilots and bold pilots but no old, bold pilots.
Spoken by one who knows mediocrity well.
My cousin and his wife once took up flying lessons. The first time she donned that special hood to simulate a total blackout she had the plane upside down in a minute. Fortunately the instructor was their to set things alright, just part of the learning process. One is nuts to fly a plane without instrument certification.
Suggesting that fracking and the energy industry has somehow “saved” the American economy since 2008 is to put the resource cart before the monetary horse. The globalized central banks have worked in coordination to reinflate asset bubbles. The monetary extremism emanating from the central banks is the key to what has transpired in the United States since 2008. Fracking and the energy industry is a smaller part of that monetary phenomenom.
The ECB, Bank of Japan, the Chinese central bank, Bank of England, the Federal Reserve Bank and other globalized central banks have all conjured up trillions of currency units. This is what has kept the dead-man-walking global financial system from expiring. The global financial system should be allowed to expire. That is when mass immigration will end and mass deportations will begin.
The oil and gas industry in the United States has made good use of the easy credit and cheap money from the central banks. Taking a chance on oil and gas extraction seems better than using the cheap money from central banks to reinflate the stock, bond and real estate bubbles.
Many other incidents from his life strongly suggest that, like most of his family relations, John-John had a really piss-poor sense of risk management, which is why I think that even if that crash hadn’t happened in 1999, at some point he would have managed to off himself (and probably others) in something stupid. In turn that makes making him out to be the temporal “random element” that would have derailed Hillary is wrong–even if he had run for the Senate in 2000 instead of N.Y. Governor in 2002, as his uncle Teddy was pushing him to.
Of course, my favorite inanity from that whole incident was the Clinton Administration having the Navy pull out all the stops in a multi-million dollar wreckage search effort, and recovering the body–after which his corpse was then dropped back into the drink where it had been before. No ordinary citizen’s dead body would have been treated as so important.
This is a standard objection to fracking and it is flat out Wrong. The water table is less than 1000 feet down, usually much less. Fracking in the Marcellus shale formation is greater than 5000 feet. As someone else pointed out, the well is surrounded by a concrete casing all the way down.
My relatively intelligent brother believes this shite because he heard it on the Today Show, that fount of all that is Right and True.
I know a guy who flew search and rescue copters off carriers, and he said that out over the Pacific at night, if you don’t trust your instruments you can be upside down and dead real easily as your eyes and brain try to find the horizon. That’s what happened to John-John.
Mediocrity is colour blind.
E.g. US DOJ 2009-2016.
My relatively intelligent brother believes this shite because he heard it on the Today Show, that fount of all that is Right and True.Replies: @Mr. Anon
And as the Oroville Dam proved………..concrete, like diamonds, is forever.
And surely, they would never do that. Just like a major oil company (such as BP) would never let a refinery go to seed:
Texas City Refinery Explosion
or use a drilling platform with a faulty blowout preventer. Those things just don’t happen.
DWK: Driving While Kennedy
Or flying.
‘See Keii’ says :Troll among us!
I know that reading a whole article could be a hard task for his trumpauthisticly captured psyche.
Calling The Orangutan from Queens for what he is : a volatile, capricious, opportunistic, Real Estatesman in Chief that, according to Patrick Buchanan, had his embarrassing Jerry,Jerry, Jerry-white -trash-kissing-triple-patentheses-ring-of-power-moment has to be a new, and devastating carnal knowledge experience to CK.
Is Patrick troll, too?
And , again FYI, this article comes directly from a Godfather of Paleoconservatism.