The Unz Review • An Alternative Media Selection
A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media
 TeasersiSteve Blog
Guardian: Actually, Boris Johnson's Virus Strategy Is Sensible
Email This Page to Someone

 Remember My Information



=>

Bookmark Toggle AllToCAdd to LibraryRemove from Library • BShow CommentNext New CommentNext New ReplyRead More
ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
AgreeDisagreeThanksLOLTroll
These buttons register your public Agreement, Disagreement, Thanks, LOL, or Troll with the selected comment. They are ONLY available to recent, frequent commenters who have saved their Name+Email using the 'Remember My Information' checkbox, and may also ONLY be used three times during any eight hour period.
Ignore Commenter Follow Commenter
Search Text Case Sensitive  Exact Words  Include Comments
List of Bookmarks

From The Guardian on the British government’s virus strategy:

UK government’s coronavirus advice – and why it gave it

The action plan’s recommendations differed significantly from measures imposed in other countries

Kate Proctor

Thu 12 Mar 2020

While school closures can be effective in the case of a flu pandemic, large-scale shutdowns are not thought to be an obvious next step in dealing with the virus in the UK, the government said. Closures would have to be at least 13 weeks long to reduce the peak of Covid-19 by 10-15%.

Considering how bad the peak is likely to be, a 10-15% reduction sounds okay to me.

Measures such as self-isolation for seven days for those with symptoms, as advised by the government, have been modelled and are shown to be much more effective.

The British have been relying on a 2011 planning process. A big question is whether they’ve fully updated from their 2011 simulation to the realities of the 2020 virus.

That reminds me that America has a lot of modeling talent in its baseball analyst hobbyists. Since there probably won’t be any baseball for some time, let me point out that epidemics are interesting to analyze statistically too. We could use some independent perspectives from bright young outsiders.

The 2020 Society for American Baseball Research analytics conference is supposed to begin this afternoon in Phoenix. I don’t know whether it will happen or not, but a good topic would be how sabermetricians can contribute to The Effort. Us oldsters are too old to wrap our brains around a new discipline, at least below the Nick Patterson-level of intelligence, but the younger men could pitch in and help.

Experts also believe it would be difficult for school closures to work in practice, as children off school would end up socialising anyway or spending time with grandparents, who would be worse-affected by the virus. Schools will be asked to stop foreign trips.

As we all know, kids these days are insatiable for face to face socializing. They refuse to stay in their rooms and stare at their screens.

Self-isolation

Guardian Today: the headlines, the analysis, the debate – sent direct to you
Read more
The updated guidance asks people to self-isolate at home for seven days if they have a new and persistent cough for up to four hours and a temperature of 37.8C and above. These are considered to be mild symptoms of coronavirus and people do not need to ring 111 for advice unless their condition dramatically worsens, the government said. Following this advice is thought to be an effective way of reducing the peak number of cases by up to 20%. The seven-day period is based on people being infectious just as their symptoms start to show and for a week afterwards. In the future, the government may ask a whole household to isolate for two weeks if one person is affected.

Why wait for “the future?”

The future is NOW.

The government believes that banning large gatherings is one of the least effective measures a country can take, reducing the peak of the coronavirus by less than 5%. The virus is just as likely to spread within a smaller group such as those watching football in the pub as it would in a large crowd.

How about people watch soccer at home?

Scotland has taken a different decision, banning events of more than 500 people from Monday to free up emergency services.

Experts have warned consistently about the importance of not moving ahead too quickly with dramatic lifestyle changes to try to deal with the virus. Anything too onerous suggested by the government – such as a two-week isolation period for a whole household – might be adopted enthusiastically for a few weeks but then people get bored and leave their homes just as the peak of the illness hits, the government fears. A complete and immediate “lockdown” on movement could suppress the virus for a short time but it would return once measures are lifted, the government believes. Instead, the aim is to push the peak back toward the summer months and bring in more stringent measures down the line.

I don’t know … This sounds to me like exactly the wrong idea, but what do I know? My thinking is that if you slam it hard now when there aren’t many cases, it’s more likely to die out than if you slam it hard later when there a million cases.

Am I wrong about this?

Flights
Donald Trump has banned citizens from 26 European Schengen area countries from travelling to the US for 30 days. The decision will not be replicated in the UK following the advice of the chief medical officer and chief scientific adviser. The measure is not effective unless 95% of flights are stopped, the government said, when in reality only 50% stoppage is likely to be achievable. If you are to fly, the World Health Organization guidance suggests the highest-risk area is the two rows in front, behind or next to an infected person.

Lotsa luck with getting a seat more than 2 rows from the infected person …

There will now be a shift in testing. The contain phase was about isolating individual cases, getting a diagnosis and then “contact-tracing” the people they have spent time with and asking them to self-isolate. Many people will no longer be tested if they are showing mild symptoms. Instead, those with the most serious symptoms will be given a blood test in a hospital, and the NHS will move into a phase of prioritising the most seriously ill.

Also, passengers on the London Tube are advised to lick handrails.

The peak
Scientists and medics are using this phrase a lot, and it means the highest potential rate of cases. For the UK, the peak is expected to fall in three months’ time, likely in the summer months, and tail off throughout the autumn, the government said. Vallance said that the UK is around four weeks behind Italy, where there have been 1,000 deaths and more than 15,000 cases.

So … Italy is still two months away from the peak? This peak thing that you speak of blithely, it does not sound so good to me.

The peak also brings the biggest period of challenge for the NHS. There are 5,000 ventilated beds but the service is looking to increase that number. Without a cure, the main treatment is oxygen therapy, which can be provided through a mask, and the NHS is looking to increase supplies.

Hey, they’re looking. You can’t expect them to necessarily find more supplies. This isn’t World War II when Six Companies, led by Henry Kaiser, built a new Liberty-class cargo ship every 18 hours.

iSteve commenter eugyppius writes in response to the UK’s rather laissez-faire response to the virus:

Look, nobody will read this down here at the bottom, but in response to comments supporting the UK strategy above:

1) Measures necessary to flatten the curve (slow the rate of new infections so it does not swamp hospitals) and squash the curve (drive r0 under 1), as people have been pointing out for a while, look very similar to each other. They are both extreme.

2) What the UK is openly confessing to doing, what Germany is secretly planning on doing (but now they are closing schools, so they are taking more steps), along with perhaps also Spain, is not very much of anything. Banning large gatherings is not going to slow the curve. It will have no measurable effect.

3) Germany at least, and I assume other EU countries aside from Italy, is reacting to the virus in the moment. They are speaking as if the known state of the infection today is the actual state. They are saying “of course many more people with mild symptoms are not recorded.” They are saying that they will take measures later if things get worse. Things are *already guaranteed to be several orders of magnitude worse* because a portion of those mild cases will become critical and a portion of incubating invisible cases will become mild. By the time they get worse they will be *several orders of magnitude worse again* This will keep happening.

4) I find it very doubtful that populations will find merely enduring a sudden pandemic wave acceptable. We are talking about the vast majority of all healthcare resources, maybe 75% to 80%, going to supporting the respiration of people 65 years and older. We are talking about apparent mortality creeping up to 6% as now in Italy. We are talking about parents and grandparents being turned away and left to suffocate outside in a tent. We are talking about vastly reduced resources for almost all other health problems. You are in a car accident, you have a stroke, you break your arm, you get a kidney infection, you have a heart attack: All of that happens, for several months, in a world where healthcare resources are 25% what they are now.

iSteve commenter DanHessInMD says:

The CDC has been saying masks are ineffective. What a mistake!

That is completely wrong. Simple masks are obviously very effective! East asians have known this for at least a generation.

The Chinese and Koreans instantly stopped CoronaVirus cold the minute everyone started wearing masks. I think that alone might be enough to get the R0 value below 1, which stops an outbreak.

President Xi just toured Wuhan and declared victory. He was wearing a simple facemask.

Famed Yale Virologist Iwasaki on twitter recently to her 15000 followers, “A mask will certainly keep your nose and mouth warmer and more humidified. I always wear a mask on international flights for this reason, where 10% relative humidity and closed environment makes for a perfect transmission incubator.”

Useful info?

I would once have said not to wear a facemask on account of not causing panic, but I really don’t think the panic can get any worse at this point.

We need about 10 billion N95 facemasks per month in America. At the moment, we are ridiculously short of N95s. I bought 20 a couple of weeks ago for some absurd price per unit that I only agreed to because I’d hit the Stolichnaya hard. But it was one of the better decisions I ever made. Every household needs some in case a member gets the virus so everybody needs to mask up.

Then, when it’s time to get the economy going again, everybody should wear a mask, perhaps until they’ve gotten inoculated with the vaccine, which is likely to be in the spring of 2021.

 
Hide 50 CommentsLeave a Comment
Commenters to Ignore...to FollowEndorsed Only
Trim Comments?
  1. The people who are great at modelling things are actuaries. Unfortunately only about 0.5% of humanity have the brains to be an actuary, they are all doing this privately, for money.

    Insurance companies are pretty good with the risk management by and large – AIG excepted with their credit default swaps.

    • Replies: @dearieme
    @Hodag

    A great friend of mine is an actuary. He is, as you say, a clever chap. Of course he had the advantage of my coaching him in maths.

  2. As we all know, kids these days are insatiable for face to face socializing. They refuse to stay in their rooms and stare at their screens.

    Forums will be full of summerfags, and that in spring!

    There may even be a porn epidemic, followed by a Tourette’s syndrome epidemic followed by a mad p0wnage in First-Person-Shooter epidemic.

    Meanwhile, the graph has suspiciously flattened out. Is it just missing data?

    • Replies: @Smithsonian
    @El Dato


    Meanwhile, the graph has suspiciously flattened out. Is it just missing data?
     
    Yes, the data comes in during the day and does not give an accurate result until the day ends.

    Bear in mind that this is just test-confirmed cases and is therefore a MINIMUM value.
  3. How about people watch soccer at home?

    It costs about £80 ($100) per month to get Sky Sports, the Murdoch owned behemoth which broadcasts the soccer matches. Pubs pay for a special feed and there are actual apps that allow fans to find a pub nearby that plays their fixtures: Match Pint Sky Sports Pubfinder
    Soccer fans in England and Scotland notoriously tend to belong the lower income brackets…

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Richard S

    How about Rupert Murdoch announce that everybody can watch Sky Sports at home for the next 12 months for FREE?

    Replies: @Richard S, @R.G. Camara, @eugyppius

  4. See the Words of the Prophet – Written on a Subway Wall – Simon & Garfunkel – Sounds of Silence

    bOB dYLAN

    sENOR – tALES oF yANKEE pOWER

    Señor, señor
    Can you tell me where we’re headin’?
    Lincoln County Road or Armageddon?
    Seems like I been down this way before
    Is there any truth in that, señor?

    Señor, señor
    Do you know where she is hidin’?
    How long are we gonna be ridin’?
    How long must I keep my eyes glued to the door?
    Will there be any comfort there, señor?

    There’s a wicked wind still blowin’ on that upper deck
    There’s an iron cross still hanging down from around her neck
    There’s a marchin’ band still playin’ in that vacant lot
    Where she held me in her arms one time and said, “Forget me not”

    Señor, señor
    I can see that painted wagon
    Smell the tail of the dragon
    Can’t stand the suspense anymore
    Can you tell me who to contact here, señor?

    Well, the last thing I remember before I stripped and kneeled
    Was that trainload of fools bogged down in a magnetic field
    A gypsy with a broken flag and a flashing ring****
    He said, “Son, this ain’t a dream no more, it’s the real thing”

    Señor, señor
    You know their hearts is as hard as leather
    Well, give me a minute, let me get it together
    Just gotta pick myself up off the floor
    I’m ready when you are, señor

    Señor, señor
    Let’s overturn these tables
    Disconnect these cables
    This place don’t make sense to me no more
    Can you tell me what we’re waiting for, señor?

    ****
    may I say that these words remind me of my Chancelloresse Angela Merkel?

  5. • Replies: @Hhsiii
    @MEH 0910

    Notice how Sophie Trudeau, Tom Hanks, the head of Port Authority of NY NJ, have no issue getting tested. Helots don’t get tested.

  6. @Richard S

    How about people watch soccer at home?
     
    It costs about £80 ($100) per month to get Sky Sports, the Murdoch owned behemoth which broadcasts the soccer matches. Pubs pay for a special feed and there are actual apps that allow fans to find a pub nearby that plays their fixtures: Match Pint Sky Sports Pubfinder
    Soccer fans in England and Scotland notoriously tend to belong the lower income brackets...

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    How about Rupert Murdoch announce that everybody can watch Sky Sports at home for the next 12 months for FREE?

    • Replies: @Richard S
    @Steve Sailer

    Lol, that old bastard is more likely to raise the price if people are stuck at home!

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    , @R.G. Camara
    @Steve Sailer

    I still think cancelling all these major sports completely will lead to worse problems. Playing them in front of empty stadiums and giving away the games for free is a much better plan to keep people at home and entertained watching TV, as Boston with a James Brown concert to quell the MArtin Luther King assassination riots.

    https://www.bostonmagazine.com/news/2017/04/05/james-brown-saved-boston-king/

    , @eugyppius
    @Steve Sailer

    This is a really great idea actually, and the clubs could tell everyone to stay at home and watch the games. I could even see getting big players to do PSAs: "beer is cheaper, couch more comfortable, stay home and out of the bars so we can stay healthy and keep playing".

    Replies: @eugyppius

  7. @Steve Sailer
    @Richard S

    How about Rupert Murdoch announce that everybody can watch Sky Sports at home for the next 12 months for FREE?

    Replies: @Richard S, @R.G. Camara, @eugyppius

    Lol, that old bastard is more likely to raise the price if people are stuck at home!

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Richard S



    How about Rupert Murdoch announce that everybody can watch Sky Sports at home for the next 12 months for FREE?
     
    Lol, that old bastard is more likely to raise the price if people are stuck at home!
     
    Murdoch is, of course, a Scottish name.

    If you want to get a good horse laugh in Australia, just suggest that Jews control investment banking.

    Scottish investors and the Australian banking crisis


    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macquarie_Group
    Aberdeen Australia Equity Fund, Inc.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jardine_Matheson
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keswick_family

  8. @Steve Sailer
    @Richard S

    How about Rupert Murdoch announce that everybody can watch Sky Sports at home for the next 12 months for FREE?

    Replies: @Richard S, @R.G. Camara, @eugyppius

    I still think cancelling all these major sports completely will lead to worse problems. Playing them in front of empty stadiums and giving away the games for free is a much better plan to keep people at home and entertained watching TV, as Boston with a James Brown concert to quell the MArtin Luther King assassination riots.

    https://www.bostonmagazine.com/news/2017/04/05/james-brown-saved-boston-king/

  9. OT:

    Obama and Seinfeld chatting. Obama doesn’t sound like a smart person.

  10. 13 weeks of people at home?

    That might have been feasible in the wintertime , especially a cold winter. But we’re heading into spring and summer. 13 weeks would take us till the end of June. You are NEVER going to be able to get black and brown kids to stay in their homes for 13 weeks in warm weather. You might as well demand that they study astrophysics while they do it.

    • Agree: jim jones
    • Replies: @Anon
    @R.G. Camara

    13 weeks indoors will reduce the amount of sunlight people get and drop their Vitamin D levels. This means they'll be less able to fight off the virus. Bad idea.

    Replies: @eugyppius

  11. 3) Germany at least, and I assume other EU countries aside from Italy, is reacting to the virus in the moment. They are speaking as if the known state of the infection today is the actual state.

    Germany had a two-digit set of cases when Italy had a one-digit set. As we speak, there are in Germany over 3,000 active cases of which 9 are coded ‘serious or critical’. Italy has about 4x as many active cases but 120x as many ‘serious or critical’ cases. Seems to me we might be able to go to school on Germany’s measures to date.

    • Agree: Sean
    • Replies: @eugyppius
    @Art Deco

    How long did it take Germany to go from zero deaths to (as of now) seven?

    5 days: 8-13 March.

    What about France, Italy, Spain, South Korea?

    9 days for France to go from 1 (longstanding) death to 7 between 25 Feb and 5 March, then 11 deaths by 6 March as if to make up for the delay.

    4 days for Italy to go from 0 to 7 deaths, 20-24 Feb.

    4 days for Spain, 2-6 March.

    4 days for South Korea, 19-23 February.

    The course of the virus is the same everywhere.

    We are dealing with different testing regimes in different healthcare systems giving us different pictures of the epidemic. Once all hospitals know to test and are in a position to, though, we have a better means of comparison.

    Replies: @Jim from Boston

    , @eugyppius
    @Art Deco


    over 3,000 active cases of which 9 are coded ‘serious or critical’.

     

    That needle has been stuck at 9 for a few days despite the last several deaths at least. Before a death it is at 9. Then somebody dies it stays at 9. Did the dead go from mild to deceased in hours? The serious/critical numbers for Germany are not real.

    Replies: @Sean, @Calculator

    , @danand
    @Art Deco


    “Seems to me we might be able to go to school on Germany’s measures to date.”
     
    Art Deco, the Italians have surrendered; they are bringing in the most experienced experts now:

    https://youtu.be/FAIVNRh_9qc
  12. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/coronavirus-science-chief-defends-uk-measures-criticism-herd-immunity

    Vallance sought to underline that it is the epidemiology that is guiding the decision not to impose more draconian restrictions on the public’s day-to-day lives immediately.

    “If you suppress something very, very hard, when you release those measures it bounces back and it bounces back at the wrong time,” he said. The government is concerned that if not enough people catch the virus now, it will re-emerge in the winter, when the NHS is already overstretched.

    By the way

    Nassim Nicholas Taleb
    @nntaleb
    ·
    10h
    Actually, it is not obvious. Medication might be accelerating their problems.
    Quote Tweet

    Jack Posobiec
    @JackPosobiec
    · 11h
    New Wuhan virus symptoms that medical professionals are noting in some cases:

    High blood pressure

    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    @Sean


    Medication may be accelerating their problems.
     
    I just read a blurb today about ACE inhibitors, often used for blood pressure and diabetes medications, presenting a risk factor for Coronavirus transmissibility....

    https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m810/rr-2
  13. I honestly don’t think it would hurt kids to miss an entire year or two of school. Once they’re back in, the smart ones will have caught up, and the dumb ones won’t be any dumber. Just let them know about Khan Academy, if they’re interested. This endless summer generation might end up more successful and in more leadership positions in adulthood than their predecessors.

  14. If you are to fly, the World Health Organization guidance suggests the highest-risk area is the two rows in front, behind or next to an infected person.

    So, the WHO is now saying that being near an infected person is more risky than being further away?

    Do the infected now wear signs in public? Have airlines suddenly decided that passengers can choose whatever seat they like after boarding?

    Trump clearly should have cut off the U.K. at the same time as Europe, which was already late.

    Trump wasn’t able to cut off Asia because racism.

    • Agree: Travis
  15. I bet the UK ends up having the right approach. It seems like most of the people giving dire predictions and making the most drastic suggestions are math guys but not really medical guys. I could be wrong. But I’ve heard from a toxicologist who thinks people are going a bit crazy.

    There’s a lot of talk about exponential growth. But obviously, there are limiting factors. On the positive side, even if it fades this will be a good shake down cruise for the CDC. I have no clue why South Korea can test so many people but we still can’t.

    • Replies: @Anno
    @RichardTaylor


    I bet the UK ends up having the right approach. It seems like most of the people giving dire predictions and making the most drastic suggestions are math guys but not really medical guys.
     
    Some medical people on the news have mentioned serioius permanent lung damage among some proportion of recovered patients. So I wouldn't cavalierly expose everyone to the disease.

    And there are reports of people getting a second hit of the disease after recovery. For "herd immunity" you need two things: (1) a herd, and (2) immunity. If people don't always get immunity from having had the disease ...
  16. @Steve Sailer
    @Richard S

    How about Rupert Murdoch announce that everybody can watch Sky Sports at home for the next 12 months for FREE?

    Replies: @Richard S, @R.G. Camara, @eugyppius

    This is a really great idea actually, and the clubs could tell everyone to stay at home and watch the games. I could even see getting big players to do PSAs: “beer is cheaper, couch more comfortable, stay home and out of the bars so we can stay healthy and keep playing”.

    • Replies: @eugyppius
    @eugyppius

    updating, I don't watch much football, but indeed as of yesterday we are getting sky for free here in Germany as they are closing the football stadiums. the next step is then for a) the pubs to stop screening matches, b) the players to do some PSAs telling everyone to stay home and watch with close friends (redundant contacts).

  17. How about people watch soccer at home?

    You think these louts pay their telly licence fees?

    Also, passengers on the London Tube are advised to lick handrails.

    Kids in London, Ontario are taught very young not to do this.

  18. @Art Deco
    3) Germany at least, and I assume other EU countries aside from Italy, is reacting to the virus in the moment. They are speaking as if the known state of the infection today is the actual state.

    Germany had a two-digit set of cases when Italy had a one-digit set. As we speak, there are in Germany over 3,000 active cases of which 9 are coded 'serious or critical'. Italy has about 4x as many active cases but 120x as many 'serious or critical' cases. Seems to me we might be able to go to school on Germany's measures to date.

    Replies: @eugyppius, @eugyppius, @danand

    How long did it take Germany to go from zero deaths to (as of now) seven?

    5 days: 8-13 March.

    What about France, Italy, Spain, South Korea?

    9 days for France to go from 1 (longstanding) death to 7 between 25 Feb and 5 March, then 11 deaths by 6 March as if to make up for the delay.

    4 days for Italy to go from 0 to 7 deaths, 20-24 Feb.

    4 days for Spain, 2-6 March.

    4 days for South Korea, 19-23 February.

    The course of the virus is the same everywhere.

    We are dealing with different testing regimes in different healthcare systems giving us different pictures of the epidemic. Once all hospitals know to test and are in a position to, though, we have a better means of comparison.

    • Replies: @Jim from Boston
    @eugyppius

    It’s all in the metrics.

    http://www.talkstats.com/threads/wanted-rational-coronavirus-analysis.74951/


    The ratio of total-infected per fatality (fatality rate is the inverse) for COVID-19, by age:

    80 and older... 7
    50-something ... 77
    40-something ... 250
    10-39 ............. 500

    NOTE: This Chinese CDC data may not be totally credible, but that uncertainty factor would apply to all categories equally, presumably.
     

    One might suggest that these different senses-of-urgency may be skewing decisions and policy, as we head into Election 2020.

    Personally, I'm just steamed about the ongoing lack of bathhouse options in San Fran.

    Replies: @eugyppius

  19. @Art Deco
    3) Germany at least, and I assume other EU countries aside from Italy, is reacting to the virus in the moment. They are speaking as if the known state of the infection today is the actual state.

    Germany had a two-digit set of cases when Italy had a one-digit set. As we speak, there are in Germany over 3,000 active cases of which 9 are coded 'serious or critical'. Italy has about 4x as many active cases but 120x as many 'serious or critical' cases. Seems to me we might be able to go to school on Germany's measures to date.

    Replies: @eugyppius, @eugyppius, @danand

    over 3,000 active cases of which 9 are coded ‘serious or critical’.

    That needle has been stuck at 9 for a few days despite the last several deaths at least. Before a death it is at 9. Then somebody dies it stays at 9. Did the dead go from mild to deceased in hours? The serious/critical numbers for Germany are not real.

    • Replies: @Sean
    @eugyppius

    With the oldest population in Europe, Germany has 7 coronavirus deaths, while Italy already has over 1000 such deaths. The dead in Germany are every bit as dead as the dead in Italy.

    Replies: @eugyppius

    , @Calculator
    @eugyppius

    Your math is flawed. The calculations are as follows:
    Opening number reported as dead=9
    Add number expected to be dead =5
    Multiply by a factor of 2 to anticipate effect of future infections= (9+5) x 2=28
    Subtract 1 (an individual certified dead recovered)= 27
    Divide by 3(the 5 expected to die per above less the factor of 2)= 27/3=9

    Hope this helps !

    Replies: @anon

  20. @Hodag
    The people who are great at modelling things are actuaries. Unfortunately only about 0.5% of humanity have the brains to be an actuary, they are all doing this privately, for money.

    Insurance companies are pretty good with the risk management by and large - AIG excepted with their credit default swaps.

    Replies: @dearieme

    A great friend of mine is an actuary. He is, as you say, a clever chap. Of course he had the advantage of my coaching him in maths.

  21. Genius idea: Maximize ‘herd’ immunity by exposing the 40 and under as much as possible. Large events would be 40 and under only. The younger people exposed will get milder cases if any. Then mass conscription, our armies of immuno-superior warriors will rule the world!!!!!!!

    Closing schools in particular seems counter productive, the under 20 are the ones who can develop immunity with less cost.

    I don’t get the point to ending europe to us travel, seems too late to be useful so it is counter productive. Trump is disappointing for caving and pretending to do something.

  22. @Richard S
    @Steve Sailer

    Lol, that old bastard is more likely to raise the price if people are stuck at home!

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    How about Rupert Murdoch announce that everybody can watch Sky Sports at home for the next 12 months for FREE?

    Lol, that old bastard is more likely to raise the price if people are stuck at home!

    Murdoch is, of course, a Scottish name.

    If you want to get a good horse laugh in Australia, just suggest that Jews control investment banking.

    Scottish investors and the Australian banking crisis

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macquarie_Group
    Aberdeen Australia Equity Fund, Inc.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jardine_Matheson
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keswick_family

  23. @eugyppius
    @Art Deco


    over 3,000 active cases of which 9 are coded ‘serious or critical’.

     

    That needle has been stuck at 9 for a few days despite the last several deaths at least. Before a death it is at 9. Then somebody dies it stays at 9. Did the dead go from mild to deceased in hours? The serious/critical numbers for Germany are not real.

    Replies: @Sean, @Calculator

    With the oldest population in Europe, Germany has 7 coronavirus deaths, while Italy already has over 1000 such deaths. The dead in Germany are every bit as dead as the dead in Italy.

    • Replies: @eugyppius
    @Sean


    The dead in Germany are every bit as dead as the dead in Italy.
     
    Hence my other comment.
  24. Didn’t I read somewhere there are (the Home Office reckons) over half a million illegal immigrants in London alone- and these people, who live, work, and socialise under the radar unknown to the authorities, live crammed in overcrowded share houses?

    Has HM government factored in these people as virus spreaders who will either refuse to come forward for treatment- or flood the hospital A&Es?

    What about the (god knows how many but up to) 25 million illegal aliens in the US? Medicare for all?

  25. @Sean
    @eugyppius

    With the oldest population in Europe, Germany has 7 coronavirus deaths, while Italy already has over 1000 such deaths. The dead in Germany are every bit as dead as the dead in Italy.

    Replies: @eugyppius

    The dead in Germany are every bit as dead as the dead in Italy.

    Hence my other comment.

  26. I bought 20 a couple of weeks ago for some absurd price per unit that I only agreed to because I’d hit the Stolichnaya hard. But it was one of the better decisions I ever made.

    “We were running horses out of Nogales.” Or some other line delivered by actor James Gammon from that 1990 Revenge movie co-written by Jim Harrison and Jeff Fiskin from a novel by Harrison.

    Every household needs some in case a member gets the virus so everybody needs to mask up.

    “Don’t wait for orders from headquarters. Mount up, and ride to the sound of the guns.” Maybe a quote from one of Napolean’s generals or Pat Buchanan in 1996.

  27. @eugyppius
    @Steve Sailer

    This is a really great idea actually, and the clubs could tell everyone to stay at home and watch the games. I could even see getting big players to do PSAs: "beer is cheaper, couch more comfortable, stay home and out of the bars so we can stay healthy and keep playing".

    Replies: @eugyppius

    updating, I don’t watch much football, but indeed as of yesterday we are getting sky for free here in Germany as they are closing the football stadiums. the next step is then for a) the pubs to stop screening matches, b) the players to do some PSAs telling everyone to stay home and watch with close friends (redundant contacts).

  28. @eugyppius
    @Art Deco


    over 3,000 active cases of which 9 are coded ‘serious or critical’.

     

    That needle has been stuck at 9 for a few days despite the last several deaths at least. Before a death it is at 9. Then somebody dies it stays at 9. Did the dead go from mild to deceased in hours? The serious/critical numbers for Germany are not real.

    Replies: @Sean, @Calculator

    Your math is flawed. The calculations are as follows:
    Opening number reported as dead=9
    Add number expected to be dead =5
    Multiply by a factor of 2 to anticipate effect of future infections= (9+5) x 2=28
    Subtract 1 (an individual certified dead recovered)= 27
    Divide by 3(the 5 expected to die per above less the factor of 2)= 27/3=9

    Hope this helps !

    • LOL: eugyppius
    • Replies: @anon
    @Calculator

    Are you another Hidden Figure, or do you work for the NY Times editorial staff?
    Either way, thanks!

  29. Slightly depressing comment in the Guardian, it’s the top comment. It looks as if London is Spit Central.

    https://discussion.theguardian.com/comment-permalink/138904315

    They thought this after the Spanish flu.

    A century later, spitting in public is largely accepted, people sneeze into their hands, washing hands before eating is uncommon and coming into work with a cold is normal.

    Followed by

    “Spitting in public is not largely accepted.”

    “What happens when people spit on the street? Nothing. That is “accepted”, even if people inwardly tut and disapprove. Some bus shelters are surrounded by phlegm bogs. Nothing happens.”

    “I watched at least three blokes at various stations cough violently, without putting hands over mouths, and then lurch to the edge of the platform to expectorate in grandiose and gross fashion in the last two days.”

    “But so many people do it…I see examples of that everyday in my London commute.”

    “If only it was just on the streets. I have seen people spit in buses and on tube trains, on the doors and windows and seats.”

    “I was in London last week, plenty of gobbing in evidence. One oyster-sized flob landed near me in Notting Hill, delivered by a tall gentleman wearing a suit.”

    “Not among middle class white people, no. Everyone else spits snot and sputum everywhere.”

    I thought London was rough 30 years back when I worked there, but you rarely if ever saw anyone spit.

  30. Well that settles it. I was agnostic on the UK strategy, but if the Guardian is for it, then it must be wrong and bad.

  31. @R.G. Camara
    13 weeks of people at home?

    That might have been feasible in the wintertime , especially a cold winter. But we're heading into spring and summer. 13 weeks would take us till the end of June. You are NEVER going to be able to get black and brown kids to stay in their homes for 13 weeks in warm weather. You might as well demand that they study astrophysics while they do it.

    Replies: @Anon

    13 weeks indoors will reduce the amount of sunlight people get and drop their Vitamin D levels. This means they’ll be less able to fight off the virus. Bad idea.

    • Replies: @eugyppius
    @Anon

    1) we want them not to get it, at least not right now. they can get it later.
    2) my apartment has a balcony in the sun. my downstairs neighbors have little gardens. put a psa on the radio: sunbathe if you have sun access.

    it’s not perfect but this is a battle. a war. there are potential downsides to strategies, but catastrophic downsides to no strategies.

    do you flank them, and risk getting caught in a closed space by the heavy cavalry. do you fight them head on and risk getting overwhelmed. the point is, either strategy is better than standing there in the field like a houseplant, which is what we are doing now.

  32. @Art Deco
    3) Germany at least, and I assume other EU countries aside from Italy, is reacting to the virus in the moment. They are speaking as if the known state of the infection today is the actual state.

    Germany had a two-digit set of cases when Italy had a one-digit set. As we speak, there are in Germany over 3,000 active cases of which 9 are coded 'serious or critical'. Italy has about 4x as many active cases but 120x as many 'serious or critical' cases. Seems to me we might be able to go to school on Germany's measures to date.

    Replies: @eugyppius, @eugyppius, @danand

    “Seems to me we might be able to go to school on Germany’s measures to date.”

    Art Deco, the Italians have surrendered; they are bringing in the most experienced experts now:

  33. They’re right that banning 50% of flights is insufficient, which is why we need to ban 100% of flights — from anywhere. All international flights need to be grounded, period. No flights can come in to the US internationally for the next 60 days, least of all the UK.

    Eventually, we are going to have to ground all flights even within the US, no air travel in the US for 30 days, period. I read that all the dumb college kids are taking advantage of cheap airfares and flying all over the place, to help spread the virus everywhere. One girl was even talking about going to visit grandma. The stupid girl will probably just bring grandma her death! Thoughtlessness and selfishness will do the West in.

    Italy was the first country to ban all flights from China, on Jan. 31. Unfortunately the other European countries are too stupid to follow suit, so travelers coming out of China still got to Italy by flying to other European countries then took the train to Italy.

  34. Sailer likes the virus because it allows him to talk and talk and talk about a lot of meaningless statistical gibberish. His forte.

  35. @Sean

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/coronavirus-science-chief-defends-uk-measures-criticism-herd-immunity


    Vallance sought to underline that it is the epidemiology that is guiding the decision not to impose more draconian restrictions on the public’s day-to-day lives immediately.

    “If you suppress something very, very hard, when you release those measures it bounces back and it bounces back at the wrong time,” he said. The government is concerned that if not enough people catch the virus now, it will re-emerge in the winter, when the NHS is already overstretched.
     
    By the way

    Nassim Nicholas Taleb
    @nntaleb
    ·
    10h
    Actually, it is not obvious. Medication might be accelerating their problems.
    Quote Tweet

    Jack Posobiec
    @JackPosobiec
    · 11h
    New Wuhan virus symptoms that medical professionals are noting in some cases:

    High blood pressure
     

    Replies: @The Alarmist

    Medication may be accelerating their problems.

    I just read a blurb today about ACE inhibitors, often used for blood pressure and diabetes medications, presenting a risk factor for Coronavirus transmissibility….

    https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m810/rr-2

  36. @MEH 0910
    https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1238364200625455105
    https://twitter.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1238149727616667653
    https://twitter.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1238310863137918977

    Replies: @Hhsiii

    Notice how Sophie Trudeau, Tom Hanks, the head of Port Authority of NY NJ, have no issue getting tested. Helots don’t get tested.

  37. @Anon
    @R.G. Camara

    13 weeks indoors will reduce the amount of sunlight people get and drop their Vitamin D levels. This means they'll be less able to fight off the virus. Bad idea.

    Replies: @eugyppius

    1) we want them not to get it, at least not right now. they can get it later.
    2) my apartment has a balcony in the sun. my downstairs neighbors have little gardens. put a psa on the radio: sunbathe if you have sun access.

    it’s not perfect but this is a battle. a war. there are potential downsides to strategies, but catastrophic downsides to no strategies.

    do you flank them, and risk getting caught in a closed space by the heavy cavalry. do you fight them head on and risk getting overwhelmed. the point is, either strategy is better than standing there in the field like a houseplant, which is what we are doing now.

  38. @El Dato

    As we all know, kids these days are insatiable for face to face socializing. They refuse to stay in their rooms and stare at their screens.
     
    Forums will be full of summerfags, and that in spring!

    There may even be a porn epidemic, followed by a Tourette's syndrome epidemic followed by a mad p0wnage in First-Person-Shooter epidemic.

    Meanwhile, the graph has suspiciously flattened out. Is it just missing data?

    https://i.imgur.com/unu2RGc.png

    Replies: @Smithsonian

    Meanwhile, the graph has suspiciously flattened out. Is it just missing data?

    Yes, the data comes in during the day and does not give an accurate result until the day ends.

    Bear in mind that this is just test-confirmed cases and is therefore a MINIMUM value.

  39. “Am I wrong about this?”

    Yes.

  40. @eugyppius
    @Art Deco

    How long did it take Germany to go from zero deaths to (as of now) seven?

    5 days: 8-13 March.

    What about France, Italy, Spain, South Korea?

    9 days for France to go from 1 (longstanding) death to 7 between 25 Feb and 5 March, then 11 deaths by 6 March as if to make up for the delay.

    4 days for Italy to go from 0 to 7 deaths, 20-24 Feb.

    4 days for Spain, 2-6 March.

    4 days for South Korea, 19-23 February.

    The course of the virus is the same everywhere.

    We are dealing with different testing regimes in different healthcare systems giving us different pictures of the epidemic. Once all hospitals know to test and are in a position to, though, we have a better means of comparison.

    Replies: @Jim from Boston

    It’s all in the metrics.

    http://www.talkstats.com/threads/wanted-rational-coronavirus-analysis.74951/

    The ratio of total-infected per fatality (fatality rate is the inverse) for COVID-19, by age:

    80 and older… 7
    50-something … 77
    40-something … 250
    10-39 …………. 500

    NOTE: This Chinese CDC data may not be totally credible, but that uncertainty factor would apply to all categories equally, presumably.

    One might suggest that these different senses-of-urgency may be skewing decisions and policy, as we head into Election 2020.

    Personally, I’m just steamed about the ongoing lack of bathhouse options in San Fran.

    • Replies: @eugyppius
    @Jim from Boston

    Current fatalities provide a picture of the state of the pandemic in the past, because it takes 15-20 days for most fatalities to be realised from new cases, perhaps a month for all of them.

    So using those numbers we could say very very roughly, ignoring the demographics of the current fatalities and many other questions, purely mathematically, this: As of 15-20 days ago, say 26 Feb, Germany (now 8 dead) had officially 26 infections, but actually had

    56 infected 80+ year-olds OR
    616 infected 50ish year-olds OR
    2000 infected 40ish year.olds OR
    4000 infected under 10-39s OR
    untold numbers of under 10s.

    In truth, some mixture from all five categories. But almost surely not many olds at that point. Anecdotally, infections were already common in some German cities after 20 Feb, with doctors eying all patients with fevers and coughs who failed flu tests as potential covid19 cases. Of course nobody could be tested that early, nobody was quarantined, literally nothing was done.

    The earlier infections skewed towards children and out-and-about demographics, but of course it will travel up the age ladder now.

  41. Things are getting hot here in the Northwest. K-12 schools are closed in OR and WA.

    OR doctors are fearing they may have to do triage in 2 weeks.

    https://www.kgw.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/oregon-doctors-demand-more-state-action-on-coronavirus/283-111d78f0-3764-48bc-b43a-1698759e90bf

  42. I see that London Mayor Trump—I mean, Khan—is postponing the mayoral election for a year because Wuhan virus. Sounds to me like he’s not down with the national virus immersion strategy.

  43. Someone smarter than me made the point that a mask will not stop the aerosol lised virus but it will stop you from touching your nose and Mouth with your own contaminated hands.
    I think this point is under emphasized.

    • Replies: @Anno
    @dr kill

    And remember, even the most rudimentary masks help if everyone is wearing one. You catch some of the sneeze or cough on the way out, as well as some of the sneeze or cough on the way in.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

  44. @Calculator
    @eugyppius

    Your math is flawed. The calculations are as follows:
    Opening number reported as dead=9
    Add number expected to be dead =5
    Multiply by a factor of 2 to anticipate effect of future infections= (9+5) x 2=28
    Subtract 1 (an individual certified dead recovered)= 27
    Divide by 3(the 5 expected to die per above less the factor of 2)= 27/3=9

    Hope this helps !

    Replies: @anon

    Are you another Hidden Figure, or do you work for the NY Times editorial staff?
    Either way, thanks!

  45. Extremely plausible conspiracy theory: Sir Humphrey/whoever wants this pandemic to be a millstone round Boris Johnson’s neck

    • Replies: @Rob
    @anon

    I wondered this about the #Resistance among the permanent bureaucrats at the FDA. Screw up the testing, recommend that people don’t use masks, recommend no quarantines, and recommend that domestic flights don’t get grounded. Then when tens (hundreds) of thousands die, Trump gets blamed, and Zombie Biden replaces him.

    The Swamp and the British equivalent hate Trump and BoJo. I could easily see them failing on purpose. Trump should make it clear that the Justice Department will prosecute people from bottom to top for malfeasance. At minimum, heads need to roll for the testing fiasco alone.

    On the testing. Is the problem that we’re a C- country with A+ standards? Were AA employees designing primers?

  46. @RichardTaylor
    I bet the UK ends up having the right approach. It seems like most of the people giving dire predictions and making the most drastic suggestions are math guys but not really medical guys. I could be wrong. But I've heard from a toxicologist who thinks people are going a bit crazy.

    There's a lot of talk about exponential growth. But obviously, there are limiting factors. On the positive side, even if it fades this will be a good shake down cruise for the CDC. I have no clue why South Korea can test so many people but we still can't.

    Replies: @Anno

    I bet the UK ends up having the right approach. It seems like most of the people giving dire predictions and making the most drastic suggestions are math guys but not really medical guys.

    Some medical people on the news have mentioned serioius permanent lung damage among some proportion of recovered patients. So I wouldn’t cavalierly expose everyone to the disease.

    And there are reports of people getting a second hit of the disease after recovery. For “herd immunity” you need two things: (1) a herd, and (2) immunity. If people don’t always get immunity from having had the disease …

  47. @dr kill
    Someone smarter than me made the point that a mask will not stop the aerosol lised virus but it will stop you from touching your nose and Mouth with your own contaminated hands.
    I think this point is under emphasized.

    Replies: @Anno

    And remember, even the most rudimentary masks help if everyone is wearing one. You catch some of the sneeze or cough on the way out, as well as some of the sneeze or cough on the way in.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Anno

    What are the medical terms for:

    A. Wearing a mask to protect yourself from the germs of others?
    B. Wearing a mask to protect others from your germs?

  48. @Anno
    @dr kill

    And remember, even the most rudimentary masks help if everyone is wearing one. You catch some of the sneeze or cough on the way out, as well as some of the sneeze or cough on the way in.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    What are the medical terms for:

    A. Wearing a mask to protect yourself from the germs of others?
    B. Wearing a mask to protect others from your germs?

  49. @Jim from Boston
    @eugyppius

    It’s all in the metrics.

    http://www.talkstats.com/threads/wanted-rational-coronavirus-analysis.74951/


    The ratio of total-infected per fatality (fatality rate is the inverse) for COVID-19, by age:

    80 and older... 7
    50-something ... 77
    40-something ... 250
    10-39 ............. 500

    NOTE: This Chinese CDC data may not be totally credible, but that uncertainty factor would apply to all categories equally, presumably.
     

    One might suggest that these different senses-of-urgency may be skewing decisions and policy, as we head into Election 2020.

    Personally, I'm just steamed about the ongoing lack of bathhouse options in San Fran.

    Replies: @eugyppius

    Current fatalities provide a picture of the state of the pandemic in the past, because it takes 15-20 days for most fatalities to be realised from new cases, perhaps a month for all of them.

    So using those numbers we could say very very roughly, ignoring the demographics of the current fatalities and many other questions, purely mathematically, this: As of 15-20 days ago, say 26 Feb, Germany (now 8 dead) had officially 26 infections, but actually had

    56 infected 80+ year-olds OR
    616 infected 50ish year-olds OR
    2000 infected 40ish year.olds OR
    4000 infected under 10-39s OR
    untold numbers of under 10s.

    In truth, some mixture from all five categories. But almost surely not many olds at that point. Anecdotally, infections were already common in some German cities after 20 Feb, with doctors eying all patients with fevers and coughs who failed flu tests as potential covid19 cases. Of course nobody could be tested that early, nobody was quarantined, literally nothing was done.

    The earlier infections skewed towards children and out-and-about demographics, but of course it will travel up the age ladder now.

  50. @anon
    Extremely plausible conspiracy theory: Sir Humphrey/whoever wants this pandemic to be a millstone round Boris Johnson's neck

    Replies: @Rob

    I wondered this about the #Resistance among the permanent bureaucrats at the FDA. Screw up the testing, recommend that people don’t use masks, recommend no quarantines, and recommend that domestic flights don’t get grounded. Then when tens (hundreds) of thousands die, Trump gets blamed, and Zombie Biden replaces him.

    The Swamp and the British equivalent hate Trump and BoJo. I could easily see them failing on purpose. Trump should make it clear that the Justice Department will prosecute people from bottom to top for malfeasance. At minimum, heads need to roll for the testing fiasco alone.

    On the testing. Is the problem that we’re a C- country with A+ standards? Were AA employees designing primers?

Comments are closed.

Subscribe to All Steve Sailer Comments via RSS