The Unz Review: An Alternative Media Selection
A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media
 TeasersiSteve Blog
Germans to Micro-Focus on How Germ Is Spread
🔊 Listen RSS
Email This Page to Someone

 Remember My Information



=>

Bookmark Toggle AllToCAdd to LibraryRemove from Library • BShow CommentNext New CommentNext New ReplyRead More
ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
AgreeDisagreeThanksLOLTroll
These buttons register your public Agreement, Disagreement, Thanks, LOL, or Troll with the selected comment. They are ONLY available to recent, frequent commenters who have saved their Name+Email using the 'Remember My Information' checkbox, and may also ONLY be used three times during any eight hour period.
Ignore Commenter Follow Commenter
Search Text Case Sensitive  Exact Words  Include Comments
List of Bookmarks

From The Guardian:

Worst-hit German district to become coronavirus ‘laboratory’
Study will follow 1,000 people in Heinsberg to create plan for how to deal with virus

Kate Connolly in Berlin

Tue 31 Mar 2020 08.11 EDT

German scientists have announced what they described as a first-of-its-kind study into how coronavirus spreads and how it can be contained, using the country’s worst-hit district as a real-life laboratory.

The virus has spread more widely among the 250,000 residents of Heinsberg – a district in North Rhine-Westphalia bordering the Netherlands – than anywhere else in Germany, with 1,281 confirmed infections and 34 deaths. ///

Over the coming weeks the district will be used by leading virologists and a team of 40 medical students as a sort of laboratory for studying the virus. The “Covid-19 case cluster study”, launched on Tuesday morning, will follow 1,000 people who have been chosen because they are representative of the German population as a whole. …

The scientists will go into 500 households, as well as kindergartens and hospitals, to study how the infection is spread. They will look at every aspect ofeveryday life, from the extent to which children pass it on to adults, how it is spread within families – from mobile phones to door handles, to cups and TV remote controls – to whether pets can spread it, and whether it is transferred via certain types of food. “If there are ways of preventing the illness from spreading in our environment, we want to know what they are, with the goal of finding out how we can freely move about in the environment together,” Streeck said.

“On the basis of our findings we’ll be able to make recommendations, which politicians can use to guide their decision-making,” Streeck said. “It could be that the measures currently in place are fine, and we say: ‘Don’t reduce them.’ But I don’t expect that, I expect the opposite, that we will be able to come up with a range of proposals as to how the curfews can be reduced.”

This seems like a good idea. I look forward to some super-methodical Germans coming up with good advice for how to safely do things around the house that either I’m ignoring (e.g., maybe I should take my vitamins with a spoon rather than touching my hand to my lips?) or am over-obsessing about (the Infinite Loop of washing my hands and turning off the water without starting the process all over again).

 
Hide 106 CommentsLeave a Comment
Commenters to Ignore...to FollowEndorsed Only
Trim Comments?
  1. This is good. This is good. No doubt a fine application of German qualities. Let’s just hope their methods are not as complex as a Mercedes AIRMATIC suspension.

    • LOL: snorlax
    • Replies: @Redneck farmer
    Good luck with that!
    , @Neoconned
    LOL.

    Zee Germ-Mens are going to do what the Italians could not. I still think its weird that China & Iran were the hardest hit initially....
  2. jon says:

    OT – As a proud Judeo-Christian, it always stings when one of my people acts out of character:

    Baruch Feldheim, 43, is facing charges of assault and making false statements to the feds on Sunday outside his Borough Park home where he allegedly peddled and stored massive amounts of N95 respirator masks, federal officials said.

    There, the doctor reported to investigators that Feldheim was allegedly hoarding enough medical supplies “to outfit an entire hospital.”

    https://nypost.com/2020/03/30/brooklyn-man-arrested-for-hoarding-masks-coughing-on-fbi-agents/

    • Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome


    Feldheim is also accused of price-gouging. ... selling a New Jersey doctor about 1,000 of the masks for $12,000, a markup of roughly 700 percent

     

    It should be against the law to sell critical items at the normal price during emergencies.

    Donald Boudreaux: In defense of so-called ‘price gouging’
    In Defense of “Price Gouging”
    , @James Forrestal

    Baruch Feldheim, 43, is facing charges of assault and making false statements to the feds
     
    The assault charge is apparently because he deliberately coughed on the feds and then told them that he was infected with the Rona.

    Kinda reminds me of this incident:

    https://i.postimg.cc/43FL6qYz/COVID-19-Hasidic-jews-Deliberately-Infect-Firefighter.png

    Both of these seem like rather tropish occurrences -- almost canard-like, even.

  3. German physician and microbiologist Sucharit Bhakdi on Coronavirus:

    • Replies: @Hail
    See also the same in written form,

    https://swprs.org/open-letter-from-professor-sucharit-bhakdi-to-german-chancellor-dr-angela-merkel/

    An Open Letter from Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi, Professor Emeritus of Medical Microbiology at the Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, to the German Chancellor Dr. Angela Merkel.

    Professor Bhakdi calls for an urgent reassessment of the response to Covid-19 and asks the Chancellor five crucial questions. The let­ter is dated March 26. This is an inofficial translation; see the original letter in German as a PDF.
     

    Open Letter

    Dear Chancellor,

    As Emeritus of the Johannes-Gutenberg-University in Mainz and longtime director of the Institute for Medical Microbiology, I feel obliged to critically question the far-reaching restrictions on public life that we are currently taking on ourselves in order to reduce the spread of the COVID-19 virus.

    It is expressly not my intention to play down the dangers of the virus or to spread a political message. However, I feel it is my duty to make a scientific contribution to putting the current data and facts into perspective – and, in addition, to ask questions that are in danger of being lost in the heated debate.

    The reason for my concern lies above all in the truly unforeseeable socio-economic consequences of the drastic containment measures which are currently being applied in large parts of Europe and which are also already being practiced on a large scale in Germany.

    My wish is to discuss critically – and with the necessary foresight – the advantages and disadvantages of restricting public life and the resulting long-term effects. [.....]
     
    https://swprs.org/open-letter-from-professor-sucharit-bhakdi-to-german-chancellor-dr-angela-merkel/

    German Infectologist Decimates COVID Doomsday Cult in Open Letter to Merkel

    A medical expert with integrity asks the German Chancellor five devastating questions about her mindless coronavirus lockdown
     
    The five questions are:

    My question: Did the projections make a distinction between symptom-free infected people and actual, sick patients – i.e. people who develop symptoms?
     

    My question: How does the current workload of intensive care units with patients with diagnosed COVID-19 compare to other coronavirus infections, and to what extent will this data be taken into account in further decision-making by the federal government? In addition: Has the above study been taken into account in the planning so far? Here too, of course, „diagnosed“ means that the virus plays a decisive role in the patient’s state of illness, and not that previous illnesses play a greater role.
     

    My question: Has there already been a random sample of the healthy general population to validate the real spread of the virus, or is this planned in the near future?
     

    My question: Has Germany simply followed this trend of a COVID-19 general suspicion? And: is it intended to continue this categorisation uncritically as in other countries? How, then, is a distinction to be made between genuine corona-related deaths and accidental virus presence at the time of death?
     

    My question: What efforts are being made to make the population aware of these elementary differences and to make people understand that scenarios like those in Italy or Spain are not realistic here?
     
    , @Kratoklastes
    German [] Sucharit Bhakdi.

    Nothing against the dude - maybe he fully embraces German culture (i.e., beer, sauerkraut, leather shorts and successfully invading France).

    But 'German'?

    Krautische-Wikipedia (Vikipedia) says NEIN!!!...

    Sucharit Bhakdi (* 1. November 1946 in Washington, D.C.) ist ein thailändischer Mediziner und Facharzt für Mikrobiologie und Infektionsepidemiologie
     
    KEIN SAUERKRAUT FÜR IHNEN, Herr Professor Doktor.

    KEK
  4. @Buzz Mohawk
    This is good. This is good. No doubt a fine application of German qualities. Let's just hope their methods are not as complex as a Mercedes AIRMATIC suspension.

    Good luck with that!

  5. @Buzz Mohawk
    This is good. This is good. No doubt a fine application of German qualities. Let's just hope their methods are not as complex as a Mercedes AIRMATIC suspension.

    LOL.

    Zee Germ-Mens are going to do what the Italians could not. I still think its weird that China & Iran were the hardest hit initially….

    • Replies: @Sam Malone
    If you're implying that the origin of the current crisis was an attack orchestrated by the U.S. deep state, wouldn't it have been RUSSIA rather than China that was the target along with Iran? In all the years prior to this, I heard very little serious criticism of China from the establishment in contrast with the systematic shrieking about Russia even prior to the 2016 election. Yet Russia has been relatively unscathed so far.

    I think the deep state is certainly nefarious, and this would not be beyond them, but I really don't think in this case they are responsible. It really does sound like something that inadvertently escaped from a Chinese lab into the nearby wet market.

  6. Excellent, excellent, excellent.
    Anything that can liberate us from the current approach.

    There’s also a paragraph in there that says they’ll be doing antibody testing and that some results should be out pretty quickly:

    By testing the immunity to Covid-19 of the study’s participants, the scientists will also be able to establish what the estimated number of undetected cases might be nationwide. The first results are expected to be made public next week, though the entire gathering of evidence will take several weeks and its analysis is likely to be carried out over months and years.

  7. This idea is great!
    The only problem I can think of is – are these German Germans doing the study, or is it Pang Pow and Rajan Pajeet Germans doing it?

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna
    One hopes there are enough German Germans permitted to run the study. If anyone on Earth can do this well, it's German Germans.

    Oh, and re: Steve's remark


    (the Infinite Loop of washing my hands and turning off the water without starting the process all over again)
     
    It's a great time to have one of these

    https://media.deltafaucet.com/elvis/OnWhite/md/472-DST-B1.png

    Easily operated with your forearm. Next step is the step-operated kind in medical facilities, or maybe motion-detected.

  8. @anon
    This idea is great!
    The only problem I can think of is - are these German Germans doing the study, or is it Pang Pow and Rajan Pajeet Germans doing it?

    One hopes there are enough German Germans permitted to run the study. If anyone on Earth can do this well, it’s German Germans.

    Oh, and re: Steve’s remark

    (the Infinite Loop of washing my hands and turning off the water without starting the process all over again)

    It’s a great time to have one of these

    Easily operated with your forearm. Next step is the step-operated kind in medical facilities, or maybe motion-detected.

    • Agree: James Forrestal
    • Replies: @Lot
    My last airplane trip involved a lot of paranoid handwashing in the nearly empty airport and plane.

    The typical motion sink in the airport bathrooms and push down sink on the plane are bad. No way to get a good 20 second flow of hot water. The motion sink required lots of repeated hand flailing under it.
  9. I’m getting an image of German researchers walking around wearing Ettinauer 226XL virus-proof camera helmets, along the lines of the hilarious Albert Brooks send-up of the 1970s PBS documentary, “An American Family,” “Real Life.”

  10. O/T

    The prices of heroin, methamphetamine, and fentanyl have increased as drug traffickers struggle to get precursor chemicals from laboratories in China

    Link – https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/prices-of-heroin-and-meth-increase-as-coronavirus-pandemic-hits-drug-trade
    These chinese chaps are solid citizens of the world. What would we ever do without them?

    • Replies: @Wilkey
    It will be interesting to see the changes that come out of this mess, good and bad. I suspect a lot of drug addicts will get a headstart on cleaning up due to their inability to get a fix. We could be seeing crowded maternity wards in nine months, thanks to couples locked up at home with nothing better to do. Almost certainly a drastic reduction in anchor babies/birth tourism, as international travel declines (remember that about half of our illegal immigrants are people who arrive legally but don’t leave).

    Alcoholism and obesity rates will be interesting to observe, whether higher or lower. More couples possibly divorcing, thanks to cabin fever, or perhaps more couples finding ways to get along better. Accelerated adoption of eBooks and eLearning. Definitely a a decline in deaths for a while, as the pandemic has accelerated the thinning of the herd. Hopefully a long term reduction in spread of other respiratory diseases, as people become more conscientious about hygiene. And of course we will probably see at least small changes in unemployment laws, public health programs, etc., for better and for worse.

    And of course one hopes, above all else, a serious reduction in global dependency on Chinese production. They can criticize Trump all they want, but he certainly has been getting that one right.

    It would be interesting to speculate on other changes that will follow. Any thoughts?
  11. Germany’s Dr Wolfgang Wodarg, a pulmonary (lung) specialist, has become a leading voice amongst the busload of physicians in the counter-movement of coronavirus-panic scepticism … How every year there are tens and hundreds of thousands of similar ‘flu-linked’ deaths of weak and elderly, with rather deceptive labelling as to who dies FROM the coronavirus, versus dying WITH the virus (like a dying cancer patient with cold or flu or hemmorhoids as well)

    Dr Wodarg suggests doctors and scientists are insanely affiliating themselves with ‘official’ narratives to better get government ‘research funds’ & professional brownie points – English subtitles, 11 minutes

    More German sceptical doctors on the corona panic, in this video after about the 10-minute mark, reposted in a far-right format after being censored on Google’s YouTube


    Other major sceptics amongst the ”Physicians & Experts for Coronavirus Truth’ going against prevailing narratives –

    Suggesting we should be more worried about life-destroying lockdowns and mass quarantines, and worldwide economic destruction … rather than panic about another flu season of mortality, with the majority of deaths actually people who would be dying in the next year anyway from other causes

    Swiss doctor collating much material from colleagues – see extensive updates below initial article
    https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/12-experts-question-covid-19-panic

    https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/28/10-more-experts-criticising-the-coronavirus-panic/

    Some summaries and highlights of above citing the physicians by name –

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8163587/PETER-HITCHENS-Great-Panic-foolish-freedom-broken-economy-crippled.html

    https://www.henrymakow.com/2020/03/coronavirus-is-a-fraud.html

    http://aanirfan.blogspot.com/2020/03/coronavirus-false-flag-part-2.html

    • Replies: @ThreeCranes
    Every day I find myself more drawn to this way of looking at it. A sort of “If I’m going to get the thing then I might as well get it over with so I can get on with my life (or death, as the case may be)” way of thinking.

    On the other hand, 90% of what we do is unnecessary and wasteful. We would all be better off—and the environment as well—if we just took a break and cultivated our own selves.

    A woman the other day was whining about how her two daughters were distraught because they missed school and couldn’t socialize with their friends. How, she too was bored and getting fed up with social isolation.

    Well, here’s a thought lady. How about you teach your daughters to bake? As in cookies, biscuits and bread? Or how to sew? How about you act like a Mother for a change instead of a pain in the ass business woman who’s doing nothing essential and only adding to the world’s sum total of pollution?

    It’s humbling to be made aware that you’re really not that essential, but you will be a better person for admitting it.

    , @Federalist
    Are an unusually large number of people dying? From what I've read, the answer appears to be no. Perhaps that is not correct but it should be easy to figure out. It's suspicious that we don't hear much about it.

    The news media breathlessly report the number of new "cases" everyday. Of course the numbers keep going up as more people are tested. When it comes to deaths, the issue is what deaths are caused by the coronavirus. Is every death of a person who tested positive reported as a coronavirus death? How many would have died anyway? Are more people dying from this particular virus that has a name than would have died from a genetic flu-like virus?

    Are more people dying than usual for this time of the year? If so, how many more?
    , @moshe
    The great thing about the coronavirus is that nobody will "die from the flu" this year!

    In fact, hospitals and doctors will be able to demonstrate incredible statistics regarding almost every sort of illness and injury.

    Cone in for severe brain damage but die of.....Corona!

    He came in for lung cancer but died from the Corona he caught here.

    In lesser hospitals everyone who was admitted for anything serious is actually statistically Dead from Corona.
    , @obwandiyag
    Some surmise that coronovirus skepticism is a cover for the trillion-dollar giveaway. A diversion.
    , @James Forrestal

    Germany’s Dr Wolfgang Wodarg, a pulmonary (lung) specialist, has become a leading voice amongst the busload of physicians in the counter-movement of coronavirus-panic scepticism … How every year there are tens and hundreds of thousands of similar ‘flu-linked’ deaths of weak and elderly, with rather deceptive labelling as to who dies FROM the coronavirus, versus dying WITH the virus
     
    Yeah, it's not as if there's a specific clinical syndrome, or specific radiologic findings associated with this new disease, or anything...

    Clearly those people were all "really" dying of cancer, car accidents, heart attacks, etc., and this Wodarg crank is entirely correct in his claim that the whole thing is just a big fake hoax.

    Uh huh. Das rite. Because, as Wodarg so astutely points out, coronaviruses only cause colds, and are "not allowed" to cause serious disease.

    It's not really clear how Wodarg managed to scrape through medical school while remaining entirely ignorant of the concept of Koch's postulates and the distinction between mortality rate and case fatality rate (ratio).

    Sad!

    Not everyone who has a beard, and looks very serious when he talks, actually knows what he's talking about...
    , @Corvinus
    Rebuttals and fact checks to Dr Wolfgang Wodarg. Use Google Translate.

    https://www.swr.de/wissen/dr-wodarg-versucht-corona-zu-verharmlosen-100.html

    https://www.br.de/nachrichten/deutschland-welt/ohne-fundament-arzt-nennt-corona-massnahmen-panikmache,RtaPFlQ

    https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/faktencheck-wolfgang-wodarg-verbreitet-thesen-die-wichtige-tatsachen-ignorieren/25654104.html
    , @Corvinus
    Let us fact check Dr Wolfgang Wodarg. Use Google Translate.

    https://www.swr.de/wissen/dr-wodarg-versucht-corona-zu-verharmlosen-100.html

    https://www.br.de/nachrichten/deutschland-welt/ohne-fundament-arzt-nennt-corona-massnahmen-panikmache,RtaPFlQ

    https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/faktencheck-wolfgang-wodarg-verbreitet-thesen-die-wichtige-tatsachen-ignorieren/25654104.html
  12. Anonymous[247] • Disclaimer says:

    These are the men who will find the cure

    • Replies: @Cortes
    “Mr Harding” never fails to make me laugh.

    Thanks!
  13. “bordering the Netherlands” = diseased, vibrant, mobile dopers who want both German gibs and Dutch ganja and whores.

    Of course every goodthinking German scientist is fully aware the teevee remote is to blame –
    but the unwashed masses might not yet be as firm in New German Science so a window dressing field study is indicated nonetheless.

  14. If your doors have doorknobs, you might want to replace them with door levers.

    • Replies: @Redneck farmer
    Automatic openers, like some stores. Only way to be sure. Of course, that will create more work for the air overpressure system Steve has to keep the germs out.
  15. @Kylie
    If your doors have doorknobs, you might want to replace them with door levers.

    Automatic openers, like some stores. Only way to be sure. Of course, that will create more work for the air overpressure system Steve has to keep the germs out.

    • Replies: @Kylie
    How did they manage that on the U.S.S. Enterprise?
  16. Anonymous[264] • Disclaimer says:

    Since the die has been cast, with the winner’s and loser’s strategies on display, I think we’re going to have to notice a pattern regarding globalism being social poison.

    • Agree: Coemgen
  17. I do wonder what all of this is doing to those with OCD.

    BTW, aren’t there a lot of Central Asian immigrants in that region?

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    OCD here. The kind of attention we now have to pay to minor details is familiar to me and has been a source of suffering and interruption for 45 years. This is actually easier for me to adapt to than it is for people without OCD. I have been checking and rechecking little steps of daily life since 1975.

    So, I say to my fellow humans: Welcome to my world.

    , @anon

    BTW, aren’t there a lot of Central Asian immigrants in that region?
     
    That's something that two-weeks-ago Steve Sailer would've asked...
  18. @Brabantian
    Germany's Dr Wolfgang Wodarg, a pulmonary (lung) specialist, has become a leading voice amongst the busload of physicians in the counter-movement of coronavirus-panic scepticism ... How every year there are tens and hundreds of thousands of similar 'flu-linked' deaths of weak and elderly, with rather deceptive labelling as to who dies FROM the coronavirus, versus dying WITH the virus (like a dying cancer patient with cold or flu or hemmorhoids as well)

    Dr Wodarg suggests doctors and scientists are insanely affiliating themselves with 'official' narratives to better get government 'research funds' & professional brownie points - English subtitles, 11 minutes
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_AyuhbnPOI

    More German sceptical doctors on the corona panic, in this video after about the 10-minute mark, reposted in a far-right format after being censored on Google's YouTube
    https://www.bitchute.com/video/glac70ZjcH5N/

    Other major sceptics amongst the ''Physicians & Experts for Coronavirus Truth' going against prevailing narratives -

    Suggesting we should be more worried about life-destroying lockdowns and mass quarantines, and worldwide economic destruction ... rather than panic about another flu season of mortality, with the majority of deaths actually people who would be dying in the next year anyway from other causes

    Swiss doctor collating much material from colleagues - see extensive updates below initial article
    https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/12-experts-question-covid-19-panic

    https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/28/10-more-experts-criticising-the-coronavirus-panic/

    Some summaries and highlights of above citing the physicians by name -

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8163587/PETER-HITCHENS-Great-Panic-foolish-freedom-broken-economy-crippled.html

    https://www.henrymakow.com/2020/03/coronavirus-is-a-fraud.html

    http://aanirfan.blogspot.com/2020/03/coronavirus-false-flag-part-2.html

    Every day I find myself more drawn to this way of looking at it. A sort of “If I’m going to get the thing then I might as well get it over with so I can get on with my life (or death, as the case may be)” way of thinking.

    On the other hand, 90% of what we do is unnecessary and wasteful. We would all be better off—and the environment as well—if we just took a break and cultivated our own selves.

    A woman the other day was whining about how her two daughters were distraught because they missed school and couldn’t socialize with their friends. How, she too was bored and getting fed up with social isolation.

    Well, here’s a thought lady. How about you teach your daughters to bake? As in cookies, biscuits and bread? Or how to sew? How about you act like a Mother for a change instead of a pain in the ass business woman who’s doing nothing essential and only adding to the world’s sum total of pollution?

    It’s humbling to be made aware that you’re really not that essential, but you will be a better person for admitting it.

    • Agree: Chrisnonymous
  19. Yeah, I’d heard about that. Frankly, I wonder what the plan is for measuring all those variables validly. We might end up with lots of correlations driven by measurement error.

  20. I do wonder what all of this is doing to those with OCD.

    It may be that when the pandemic has passed it will be the hikikomori with OCD who are left standing.

    Btw, the pandemic has shown a use for my Chromebook. I don’t even have to ask my family to not touch it. No-one else knows, or wants to learn, how to use it.

  21. All post-hoc studies are low-quality.

  22. Maybe studying clusters of cases is good in infectious disease study. On the other hand, studying cancer clusters has led to all kinds of wrong conclusions and Erin Brockovitch lawsuits that enrich plaintiff attorneys but don’t help medicine. Look at the way the New Yorker stirred the pot with the later disproved assertion that EMF from power lines caused cancer.

    • Replies: @obwandiyag
    Anybody who doesn't believe that power lines cause cancer is a boob.
  23. @Anonymous
    These are the men who will find the cure

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QH4NRIDjRjk

    “Mr Harding” never fails to make me laugh.

    Thanks!

  24. German scientists have announced what they described as a first-of-its-kind study into how coronavirus spreads and how it can be contained

    You mean actually looking for meaningful data on which to base policy? No, that will never catch on. The data might not tell us what we want it to tell us. We need to continue to formulate policy based on ideology and emotion and blind panic.

    We don’t need no stinkin’ facts.

  25. Germany so far has been held up as a place where things seem to be going much better than expected especially when compared to, say, Italy. But will that remain the case? If you look at the reported death numbers, Germany suddenly is starting to look a lot like Italy was 2 and a half weeks ago.

    That’s the thing with exponential processes: things can look fine for a while until suddenly they don’t and it explodes rapidly.

    Go to wikipedia and look at the number of German deaths from 3/20 – 4/1 then compare it to Italy from 3/1 – 3/11. The numbers and rates are very close. If Germany continues to show 20%+ increases in death rates for the next few days, people are going to start to notice.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    Germany is four days behind Britain. Almost all European countries are on about the same path, although I notice the least vibrant parts of England, the South West, the East and certain parts of London, still have by far the lowest infections. I still think Nordics will fare the best.
  26. I am convinced that Steve is barely alive, having succumbed to the virus, and recent posts have been created by a sophisticated AI. Look for subtle mistakes in his forthcoming post about which golf course designs are best for avoiding social contact.

  27. I do wonder what all of this is doing to those with OCD.

    I know what they should be doing. They should be telling society “And you say that I am crazy?”

    The whole World is OCD now.

  28. @jon
    OT - As a proud Judeo-Christian, it always stings when one of my people acts out of character:

    Baruch Feldheim, 43, is facing charges of assault and making false statements to the feds on Sunday outside his Borough Park home where he allegedly peddled and stored massive amounts of N95 respirator masks, federal officials said.
     

    There, the doctor reported to investigators that Feldheim was allegedly hoarding enough medical supplies “to outfit an entire hospital.”
     
    https://nypost.com/2020/03/30/brooklyn-man-arrested-for-hoarding-masks-coughing-on-fbi-agents/

    Feldheim is also accused of price-gouging. … selling a New Jersey doctor about 1,000 of the masks for $12,000, a markup of roughly 700 percent

    It should be against the law to sell critical items at the normal price during emergencies.

    Donald Boudreaux: In defense of so-called ‘price gouging’
    In Defense of “Price Gouging”

    • Agree: vhrm
  29. What if the immigrants among these representative Germans disproportionately practice risky behaviors?

    Will we ever know about those behaviors, or who it is who engages in them?

    Asking for 7 billion friends.

  30. If this experiment is carried out with German precision and unmitigated transparency, it could prove one of the most important studies of this century.

    I have a foreboding that this virus, or one of its cousins, will be around for a long time, and will be wreaking damage both obvious and subtle.

    It seems possible to me that we will never go back to the old normal. Living without real fear of infection was a latter half of 20th century thing.

    • Agree: sayless
  31. @The Alarmist
    I do wonder what all of this is doing to those with OCD.

    BTW, aren't there a lot of Central Asian immigrants in that region?

    OCD here. The kind of attention we now have to pay to minor details is familiar to me and has been a source of suffering and interruption for 45 years. This is actually easier for me to adapt to than it is for people without OCD. I have been checking and rechecking little steps of daily life since 1975.

    So, I say to my fellow humans: Welcome to my world.

    • Replies: @moshe
    Hah! :-)

    "welcome to my world...."

    So that's why housebound elderly folk are so cheery these days.

    Misery loves conpany.

    So much so that my elderly friends and relatives are actually *inviting* me to visit, what with not being abke to go anywhere *else*.

    , @anonymous

    So, I say to my fellow humans: Welcome to my world.
     
    Normal people looking at a fork in the road.

    On the left is Buzz's lifestyle, on the right is death by Coronavirus.

    Smiles as they take that right turn.
    , @Kylie
    You have my sincere sympathy. I'm not the hours-every-day-spent-washing-my-hands type but I do have my quirks.

    For the last year or two, I've been arranging my life so that, except for walking the dog, I only have to leave my property once or twice a month. I'm not agoraphobic, just not very social. Last January, I stayed on my property for 3 weeks without running out of any necessities. For me, this really is "Welcome to my world".

    I hope this crisis will not cause your OCD to go into overdrive.
  32. Achtung! Vee must have Order! Order!

  33. @Brabantian
    Germany's Dr Wolfgang Wodarg, a pulmonary (lung) specialist, has become a leading voice amongst the busload of physicians in the counter-movement of coronavirus-panic scepticism ... How every year there are tens and hundreds of thousands of similar 'flu-linked' deaths of weak and elderly, with rather deceptive labelling as to who dies FROM the coronavirus, versus dying WITH the virus (like a dying cancer patient with cold or flu or hemmorhoids as well)

    Dr Wodarg suggests doctors and scientists are insanely affiliating themselves with 'official' narratives to better get government 'research funds' & professional brownie points - English subtitles, 11 minutes
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_AyuhbnPOI

    More German sceptical doctors on the corona panic, in this video after about the 10-minute mark, reposted in a far-right format after being censored on Google's YouTube
    https://www.bitchute.com/video/glac70ZjcH5N/

    Other major sceptics amongst the ''Physicians & Experts for Coronavirus Truth' going against prevailing narratives -

    Suggesting we should be more worried about life-destroying lockdowns and mass quarantines, and worldwide economic destruction ... rather than panic about another flu season of mortality, with the majority of deaths actually people who would be dying in the next year anyway from other causes

    Swiss doctor collating much material from colleagues - see extensive updates below initial article
    https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/12-experts-question-covid-19-panic

    https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/28/10-more-experts-criticising-the-coronavirus-panic/

    Some summaries and highlights of above citing the physicians by name -

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8163587/PETER-HITCHENS-Great-Panic-foolish-freedom-broken-economy-crippled.html

    https://www.henrymakow.com/2020/03/coronavirus-is-a-fraud.html

    http://aanirfan.blogspot.com/2020/03/coronavirus-false-flag-part-2.html

    Are an unusually large number of people dying? From what I’ve read, the answer appears to be no. Perhaps that is not correct but it should be easy to figure out. It’s suspicious that we don’t hear much about it.

    The news media breathlessly report the number of new “cases” everyday. Of course the numbers keep going up as more people are tested. When it comes to deaths, the issue is what deaths are caused by the coronavirus. Is every death of a person who tested positive reported as a coronavirus death? How many would have died anyway? Are more people dying from this particular virus that has a name than would have died from a genetic flu-like virus?

    Are more people dying than usual for this time of the year? If so, how many more?

    • Replies: @eD
    "Are more people dying than usual for this time of the year?"

    Actually, no.

    The key number is number of deaths during the outbreak compared to normal number of deaths during similar periods in non-outbreak years. And even in the hardest hit areas, there is just not a big difference.

    As some of the other commentators have caught on, number of cases is really just a function of how many people have been tested (and sometimes not even that, since cases have been diagnosed without any testing, similar to HIV in Africa). And there is enough evidence that enough deaths that have little to nothing to do with the virus are being classified as due to the virus that number of deaths is useless without comparing the total to previous years at about the same time.
    , @Hail

    Are an unusually large number of people dying?
     
    A good question to ask.

    You refer to Total Mortality Rate, total deaths per capita, tracked over time. Nowhere in the world, not even epicenters, has registered a particularly higher-than-usual total mortality rate.

    But don't take my word for it. I think I can answer your question with real data, very good data out of Europe over a period of years:

    It turns out that flu season was mild for the first months of the 2019-20 winter season (for whatever reason) compared to most recent years, as you'll see below. People of the future trying to make sense of this CoronaHysteria of 2020 may point to this (an unusually mild flu season) as a partial explanation for the panic. A slight pick-up in late-season, a kind of statistical correction for a previously mild season, created conditions that allowed the media to induce panic, triggering vague memories of movies people had seen, basically.

    Here is a convenient, rolling line-graph of continuous data for the past four years (European Monitoring of Excess Mortality for Public Health Action). This is All Deaths. The regular rise and fall of winter flu season is evident:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUkB8CnWoAETwNv.png

    The data is current through Week 12 of 2020; we've just completed Week 13.

    (If you translated the bumps in marginal deaths into a Big Scary Number, attributed these deaths to a mysterious, distant-foreign origin New Virus!, then flashed pictures of Chinese in hazmat suits, then colluded with a lockstep, frenzied media to just begin drumbeating it, over and over and over, nonstop, saturation coverage, I am sure one could artificially induce a panic in any of those previous years, too.)

    _________________

    Good ongoing coverage of the Corona Mass Panic is at a website called Off Guardian. They have some maps based on this data, showing the spatial component of some of the peaks you see in the graph above.

    https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/30/covid19-yet-to-impact-europes-overall-mortality

    Here is the map showing Europe’s excess mortality for Week 12 of 2020 (19th-25th March):
     
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUkFWjtXQAEgRQy.jpg

    As you can see, currently, the vast majority of Europe shows “no excess”. That means deaths are either at or below expected levels. Italy is the one obvious exception. But note it is only on “high”, not “very high”.

    For some context, maybe we should compare it to previous years.

    Here is week 6 of 2019:
     
    Week 6 of 2019 was a peak of flu season that year:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUkFWjsXYAA-3Rc.jpg

    And 2017-18 season reached heights in the following places:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUkFWjrWAAAZaJe.jpg

    Note which are the hard-hit countries by the peak flu seasons of the 2010s. Compare to the present.
    , @Mr. Anon

    Are an unusually large number of people dying? From what I’ve read, the answer appears to be no. Perhaps that is not correct but it should be easy to figure out. It’s suspicious that we don’t hear much about it.
     
    That's really the key question. The Cable News Death Counters keep rolling up every day, but are these people who died from coronavirus or people who died from what old people (and it is mostly old people) die of everyday and they happen to have SARS-COV-2? When we say somebody died of old age, we often mean they were in poor overall health, had one or more chronic diseases, came down with pneumonia, either through normal pathogen transmission or they acquired it after being hospitalized (often for a fall), and die from that.

    The news media breathlessly report the number of new “cases” everyday. Of course the numbers keep going up as more people are tested. When it comes to deaths, the issue is what deaths are caused by the coronavirus. Is every death of a person who tested positive reported as a coronavirus death?
     
    Well.................

    COVID-19 Alert No. 2March 24, 2020 New ICD code introduced for COVID-19 deaths

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf

    Will COVID-19 be the underlying cause? The underlying cause depends upon what and where conditions are reported on the death certificate. However, the rules for coding and selection of the underlying cause of death are expected to result in COVID-19 being the underlying cause more often than not.

    Should “COVID-19” be reported on the death certificate only with a confirmed test?COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death.
     

    Are more people dying than usual for this time of the year? If so, how many more?
     
    That is the key question, and yet nobody in the media is asking that question.
  34. Steve, if you’re worried about faucet touching it sounds like your home has people coming in and out. I had assumed from your prior posts that your home was as quarantined as can be but I suppose you can’t control the actions of other members of tour household.

    Assuming that other members of your household are indeed leaving the home and returning, ny syrongest suggestion would be to explain to them your own concerns for your health and why you must self quarantine within your home somehow – including using a bathroom reserved for yourself alone.

    My assumption is that viral load is a problem. This means that you’re less likely to catch it from eating a contaminated pear than from having twenty minutes of conversation with an asymptomatic infected family member.

    I know this virus is a great concern to you and that you’re staying quarantined so I hope you find a way to communicate to whomever else you live with that they can help ease your concerns with a few simple steps.

    Stay healthy.

    .

  35. @Brabantian
    Germany's Dr Wolfgang Wodarg, a pulmonary (lung) specialist, has become a leading voice amongst the busload of physicians in the counter-movement of coronavirus-panic scepticism ... How every year there are tens and hundreds of thousands of similar 'flu-linked' deaths of weak and elderly, with rather deceptive labelling as to who dies FROM the coronavirus, versus dying WITH the virus (like a dying cancer patient with cold or flu or hemmorhoids as well)

    Dr Wodarg suggests doctors and scientists are insanely affiliating themselves with 'official' narratives to better get government 'research funds' & professional brownie points - English subtitles, 11 minutes
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_AyuhbnPOI

    More German sceptical doctors on the corona panic, in this video after about the 10-minute mark, reposted in a far-right format after being censored on Google's YouTube
    https://www.bitchute.com/video/glac70ZjcH5N/

    Other major sceptics amongst the ''Physicians & Experts for Coronavirus Truth' going against prevailing narratives -

    Suggesting we should be more worried about life-destroying lockdowns and mass quarantines, and worldwide economic destruction ... rather than panic about another flu season of mortality, with the majority of deaths actually people who would be dying in the next year anyway from other causes

    Swiss doctor collating much material from colleagues - see extensive updates below initial article
    https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/12-experts-question-covid-19-panic

    https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/28/10-more-experts-criticising-the-coronavirus-panic/

    Some summaries and highlights of above citing the physicians by name -

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8163587/PETER-HITCHENS-Great-Panic-foolish-freedom-broken-economy-crippled.html

    https://www.henrymakow.com/2020/03/coronavirus-is-a-fraud.html

    http://aanirfan.blogspot.com/2020/03/coronavirus-false-flag-part-2.html

    The great thing about the coronavirus is that nobody will “die from the flu” this year!

    In fact, hospitals and doctors will be able to demonstrate incredible statistics regarding almost every sort of illness and injury.

    Cone in for severe brain damage but die of…..Corona!

    He came in for lung cancer but died from the Corona he caught here.

    In lesser hospitals everyone who was admitted for anything serious is actually statistically Dead from Corona.

    • Agree: Federalist
    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    Yeah, it will be a jubilee year for medical malpractice.
  36. @Buzz Mohawk
    OCD here. The kind of attention we now have to pay to minor details is familiar to me and has been a source of suffering and interruption for 45 years. This is actually easier for me to adapt to than it is for people without OCD. I have been checking and rechecking little steps of daily life since 1975.

    So, I say to my fellow humans: Welcome to my world.

    Hah! 🙂

    “welcome to my world….”

    So that’s why housebound elderly folk are so cheery these days.

    Misery loves conpany.

    So much so that my elderly friends and relatives are actually *inviting* me to visit, what with not being abke to go anywhere *else*.

  37. @Redneck farmer
    Automatic openers, like some stores. Only way to be sure. Of course, that will create more work for the air overpressure system Steve has to keep the germs out.

    How did they manage that on the U.S.S. Enterprise?

  38. anonymous[379] • Disclaimer says:

    Coronavirus?

    Pakistan says, “hold my Koran…”

  39. It seems like outbreaks are correlated with dense clusters of people breathing the same air for an extended period of time, like in a nursing home, subway or house of worship. It’s no secret that aerosol transmission is likely to be important, but it seems like it takes more than just being within six feet of one infected person. Is it possible air handling systems are somehow concentrating or cultivating the virus and spewing it all over people standing near vents, like happened with Legionnaires’ Disease?

    • Replies: @anon
    It seems like outbreaks are correlated with dense clusters of people breathing the same air for an extended period of time, like in a nursing home, subway or house of worship.

    Or Army barracks.

    https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-1988-04-08-8803070326-story.html

    Have not yet found the 1980's Walter Reed study referred to in the Trib article above.

    There is supposedly an older Army flu study in which volunteers walked right through an older 40-man barracks - in one door, down the hall or between the bunks, out the other door - without talking, or touching, or even getting close to the sick men in the barracks. Some percentage of volunteers who just walked through the room later contracted flu. I'm looking for this study as well, no success so far.

    Contagion is still confusing with COVD-19. There is clearly a fecal route. There is obviously a nasal mucous route. Almost certainly a sneeze cloud route. But also people who share a cruise ship with obviously sick people who don't develop it - asymptomatic, or what?

    Avoiding sharing enclosed spaces with people in unknown health is prudent, for sure.

    We can expect the Germans to produce good data.

  40. anonymous[379] • Disclaimer says:
    @Buzz Mohawk
    OCD here. The kind of attention we now have to pay to minor details is familiar to me and has been a source of suffering and interruption for 45 years. This is actually easier for me to adapt to than it is for people without OCD. I have been checking and rechecking little steps of daily life since 1975.

    So, I say to my fellow humans: Welcome to my world.

    So, I say to my fellow humans: Welcome to my world.

    Normal people looking at a fork in the road.

    On the left is Buzz’s lifestyle, on the right is death by Coronavirus.

    Smiles as they take that right turn.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Normal people looking at a fork in the road.

    On the left is Buzz’s lifestyle, on the right is death by Coronavirus.

    Smiles as they take that right turn.
     
    As Yogi advised, when you come to a fork in the road, take it.
  41. @The Alarmist
    I do wonder what all of this is doing to those with OCD.

    BTW, aren't there a lot of Central Asian immigrants in that region?

    BTW, aren’t there a lot of Central Asian immigrants in that region?

    That’s something that two-weeks-ago Steve Sailer would’ve asked…

    • Replies: @Sam Haysom
    Closets aren’t conducive to much noticing. I hope when Steve emerges his reputation isn’t as completely destroyed as Greg Cochran’s will be. It’s hard to think that anyone younger than 40 will have much interest in him.
  42. While Germany has a deserved reputation for doing good science, I’m always a bit concerned when I read the phrase “German human medical research.”

    “Paging Dr. Mengele! Paging Dr. Mengele!”

    • Replies: @GermanReader2
    I once talked to a guy, whose sister worked as an anesthesiologist. He told me, that his sister had told him, that about 70% of the knowledge she uses in her job was gained between the years 1933 and 1945.
  43. there won’t be any more super methodical Germans in 50 years, so get them while they’re hot.

    Germany closed it’s borders to everyone…except brown third world invaders. have to keep that pipeline to Germany 2.0 wide open.

    thanks for the Haber–Bosch, but the vibrants will take it from here.

  44. @anonymous

    So, I say to my fellow humans: Welcome to my world.
     
    Normal people looking at a fork in the road.

    On the left is Buzz's lifestyle, on the right is death by Coronavirus.

    Smiles as they take that right turn.

    Normal people looking at a fork in the road.

    On the left is Buzz’s lifestyle, on the right is death by Coronavirus.

    Smiles as they take that right turn.

    As Yogi advised, when you come to a fork in the road, take it.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    Yogi is one of my favorite philosophers, but when I come to a fork in the road, I always wonder who dropped it. It's always one of the plastic kind, like Occam's butter knife. Having OCD, I don't take it.

    (Note: My disorder manifests itself in other types of checking behavior and obsessions. I am actually not a germophobe, and would have no problem picking up a plastic fork in the road.)

  45. @anon

    BTW, aren’t there a lot of Central Asian immigrants in that region?
     
    That's something that two-weeks-ago Steve Sailer would've asked...

    Closets aren’t conducive to much noticing. I hope when Steve emerges his reputation isn’t as completely destroyed as Greg Cochran’s will be. It’s hard to think that anyone younger than 40 will have much interest in him.

    • Replies: @Hail

    I hope when Steve emerges his reputation isn’t as completely destroyed as Greg Cochran’s will be.
     
    Is Greg Cochran a pedal-to-the-metal CoronaPanic person?

    Whatever this is, this split in reactions, I don't think it's necessarily (or maybe better said, 'fully') an 'Age' thing.

    I've been doing some noticing, myself. I've noticed quite lot of the leading anti-CoronaPanic experts/specialists are of the b.1940s cohort; the younger experts are holding their tongues.

    So these b.1940s experts are choosing to not mask-up, wrap their bodies in an blanket inside a special-made anti-Corona toiler-paper fort and pray to one or more gods (depending on their tradition), instead using their voices as elder statesmen of their fields to sound the alarm and try to limit the serious damage CoronaHysteria is doing.

  46. Carnival Cruise lines (CCL) still has about 6,000 passengers at sea on various cruise ships.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/carinval-cruise-ship-6000-passengers-at-sea-coronavirus/

    Several are now off the coast of Florida. These are floating petri dishes worthy of investigation.

    • Replies: @moshe
    Bill Burr told us he would do this! It's pretty funny to watch him actually go through with it.
  47. Lot says:
    @Mr McKenna
    One hopes there are enough German Germans permitted to run the study. If anyone on Earth can do this well, it's German Germans.

    Oh, and re: Steve's remark


    (the Infinite Loop of washing my hands and turning off the water without starting the process all over again)
     
    It's a great time to have one of these

    https://media.deltafaucet.com/elvis/OnWhite/md/472-DST-B1.png

    Easily operated with your forearm. Next step is the step-operated kind in medical facilities, or maybe motion-detected.

    My last airplane trip involved a lot of paranoid handwashing in the nearly empty airport and plane.

    The typical motion sink in the airport bathrooms and push down sink on the plane are bad. No way to get a good 20 second flow of hot water. The motion sink required lots of repeated hand flailing under it.

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna
    Seriously dude--stop travelling, stop going to the store!
    I need you here to argue with.
    , @Coemgen
    All the hand washing is for naught if the public bathroom's air has aerosolized COVID-19 from the urine, feces, and breath of infected persons.

    If you can smell it, you are breathing it.
  48. @Donkey Hire Albania LLC
    O/T

    The prices of heroin, methamphetamine, and fentanyl have increased as drug traffickers struggle to get precursor chemicals from laboratories in China
     
    Link - https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/prices-of-heroin-and-meth-increase-as-coronavirus-pandemic-hits-drug-trade
    These chinese chaps are solid citizens of the world. What would we ever do without them?

    It will be interesting to see the changes that come out of this mess, good and bad. I suspect a lot of drug addicts will get a headstart on cleaning up due to their inability to get a fix. We could be seeing crowded maternity wards in nine months, thanks to couples locked up at home with nothing better to do. Almost certainly a drastic reduction in anchor babies/birth tourism, as international travel declines (remember that about half of our illegal immigrants are people who arrive legally but don’t leave).

    Alcoholism and obesity rates will be interesting to observe, whether higher or lower. More couples possibly divorcing, thanks to cabin fever, or perhaps more couples finding ways to get along better. Accelerated adoption of eBooks and eLearning. Definitely a a decline in deaths for a while, as the pandemic has accelerated the thinning of the herd. Hopefully a long term reduction in spread of other respiratory diseases, as people become more conscientious about hygiene. And of course we will probably see at least small changes in unemployment laws, public health programs, etc., for better and for worse.

    And of course one hopes, above all else, a serious reduction in global dependency on Chinese production. They can criticize Trump all they want, but he certainly has been getting that one right.

    It would be interesting to speculate on other changes that will follow. Any thoughts?

    • Replies: @dfordoom

    We could be seeing crowded maternity wards in nine months, thanks to couples locked up at home with nothing better to do.
     
    Because there's no such thing as contraceptives so every time people have sex it leads to babies. Because it's still the 1950s and the contraceptive pill hasn't been invented yet.

    And in a situation where the health system is entirely focused on COVID-19 (and where the health system might even collapse completely) and normal health care for things like pregnancy and childbirth might well become almost impossible to obtain lots of women will suddenly want to get pregnant.

    And in a situation in which many businesses are likely to close their doors forever and lots of jobs are likely to disappear forever lots of couples will think to themselves, "This would be a great time to start a family."
  49. I have a better idea: how ’bout studying ways we can permanently quarantine Third World Shit Holes like China from the civilized world? There are over one BILLION, four hundred million poverty-stricken peasants there in daily contact with various and sundry animal species. They hold primitive cultural beliefs such as that ground-up rhino horns can cure impotence! They don’t know what a microbe is, let alone that many of them are human pathogens. This massive population serves as human petri dishes for the incubation of viruses and bacteria that can sicken and kill people. Five decades ago, Nixon told us that their [then] 600,000,000 people would be a burgeoning market for US goods. That was a lie.

  50. @Brabantian
    Germany's Dr Wolfgang Wodarg, a pulmonary (lung) specialist, has become a leading voice amongst the busload of physicians in the counter-movement of coronavirus-panic scepticism ... How every year there are tens and hundreds of thousands of similar 'flu-linked' deaths of weak and elderly, with rather deceptive labelling as to who dies FROM the coronavirus, versus dying WITH the virus (like a dying cancer patient with cold or flu or hemmorhoids as well)

    Dr Wodarg suggests doctors and scientists are insanely affiliating themselves with 'official' narratives to better get government 'research funds' & professional brownie points - English subtitles, 11 minutes
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_AyuhbnPOI

    More German sceptical doctors on the corona panic, in this video after about the 10-minute mark, reposted in a far-right format after being censored on Google's YouTube
    https://www.bitchute.com/video/glac70ZjcH5N/

    Other major sceptics amongst the ''Physicians & Experts for Coronavirus Truth' going against prevailing narratives -

    Suggesting we should be more worried about life-destroying lockdowns and mass quarantines, and worldwide economic destruction ... rather than panic about another flu season of mortality, with the majority of deaths actually people who would be dying in the next year anyway from other causes

    Swiss doctor collating much material from colleagues - see extensive updates below initial article
    https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/12-experts-question-covid-19-panic

    https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/28/10-more-experts-criticising-the-coronavirus-panic/

    Some summaries and highlights of above citing the physicians by name -

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8163587/PETER-HITCHENS-Great-Panic-foolish-freedom-broken-economy-crippled.html

    https://www.henrymakow.com/2020/03/coronavirus-is-a-fraud.html

    http://aanirfan.blogspot.com/2020/03/coronavirus-false-flag-part-2.html

    Some surmise that coronovirus skepticism is a cover for the trillion-dollar giveaway. A diversion.

  51. @jon
    OT - As a proud Judeo-Christian, it always stings when one of my people acts out of character:

    Baruch Feldheim, 43, is facing charges of assault and making false statements to the feds on Sunday outside his Borough Park home where he allegedly peddled and stored massive amounts of N95 respirator masks, federal officials said.
     

    There, the doctor reported to investigators that Feldheim was allegedly hoarding enough medical supplies “to outfit an entire hospital.”
     
    https://nypost.com/2020/03/30/brooklyn-man-arrested-for-hoarding-masks-coughing-on-fbi-agents/

    Baruch Feldheim, 43, is facing charges of assault and making false statements to the feds

    The assault charge is apparently because he deliberately coughed on the feds and then told them that he was infected with the Rona.

    Kinda reminds me of this incident:

    Both of these seem like rather tropish occurrences — almost canard-like, even.

  52. @Dan Smith
    Maybe studying clusters of cases is good in infectious disease study. On the other hand, studying cancer clusters has led to all kinds of wrong conclusions and Erin Brockovitch lawsuits that enrich plaintiff attorneys but don’t help medicine. Look at the way the New Yorker stirred the pot with the later disproved assertion that EMF from power lines caused cancer.

    Anybody who doesn’t believe that power lines cause cancer is a boob.

  53. @nixxer
    Germany so far has been held up as a place where things seem to be going much better than expected especially when compared to, say, Italy. But will that remain the case? If you look at the reported death numbers, Germany suddenly is starting to look a lot like Italy was 2 and a half weeks ago.

    That's the thing with exponential processes: things can look fine for a while until suddenly they don't and it explodes rapidly.

    Go to wikipedia and look at the number of German deaths from 3/20 - 4/1 then compare it to Italy from 3/1 - 3/11. The numbers and rates are very close. If Germany continues to show 20%+ increases in death rates for the next few days, people are going to start to notice.

    Germany is four days behind Britain. Almost all European countries are on about the same path, although I notice the least vibrant parts of England, the South West, the East and certain parts of London, still have by far the lowest infections. I still think Nordics will fare the best.

  54. @Brabantian
    Germany's Dr Wolfgang Wodarg, a pulmonary (lung) specialist, has become a leading voice amongst the busload of physicians in the counter-movement of coronavirus-panic scepticism ... How every year there are tens and hundreds of thousands of similar 'flu-linked' deaths of weak and elderly, with rather deceptive labelling as to who dies FROM the coronavirus, versus dying WITH the virus (like a dying cancer patient with cold or flu or hemmorhoids as well)

    Dr Wodarg suggests doctors and scientists are insanely affiliating themselves with 'official' narratives to better get government 'research funds' & professional brownie points - English subtitles, 11 minutes
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_AyuhbnPOI

    More German sceptical doctors on the corona panic, in this video after about the 10-minute mark, reposted in a far-right format after being censored on Google's YouTube
    https://www.bitchute.com/video/glac70ZjcH5N/

    Other major sceptics amongst the ''Physicians & Experts for Coronavirus Truth' going against prevailing narratives -

    Suggesting we should be more worried about life-destroying lockdowns and mass quarantines, and worldwide economic destruction ... rather than panic about another flu season of mortality, with the majority of deaths actually people who would be dying in the next year anyway from other causes

    Swiss doctor collating much material from colleagues - see extensive updates below initial article
    https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/12-experts-question-covid-19-panic

    https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/28/10-more-experts-criticising-the-coronavirus-panic/

    Some summaries and highlights of above citing the physicians by name -

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8163587/PETER-HITCHENS-Great-Panic-foolish-freedom-broken-economy-crippled.html

    https://www.henrymakow.com/2020/03/coronavirus-is-a-fraud.html

    http://aanirfan.blogspot.com/2020/03/coronavirus-false-flag-part-2.html

    Germany’s Dr Wolfgang Wodarg, a pulmonary (lung) specialist, has become a leading voice amongst the busload of physicians in the counter-movement of coronavirus-panic scepticism … How every year there are tens and hundreds of thousands of similar ‘flu-linked’ deaths of weak and elderly, with rather deceptive labelling as to who dies FROM the coronavirus, versus dying WITH the virus

    Yeah, it’s not as if there’s a specific clinical syndrome, or specific radiologic findings associated with this new disease, or anything…

    Clearly those people were all “really” dying of cancer, car accidents, heart attacks, etc., and this Wodarg crank is entirely correct in his claim that the whole thing is just a big fake hoax.

    Uh huh. Das rite. Because, as Wodarg so astutely points out, coronaviruses only cause colds, and are “not allowed” to cause serious disease.

    It’s not really clear how Wodarg managed to scrape through medical school while remaining entirely ignorant of the concept of Koch’s postulates and the distinction between mortality rate and case fatality rate (ratio).

    Sad!

    Not everyone who has a beard, and looks very serious when he talks, actually knows what he’s talking about…

  55. GermanReader2 [AKA "GermanReader2_new"] says:
    @Muggles
    While Germany has a deserved reputation for doing good science, I'm always a bit concerned when I read the phrase "German human medical research."

    "Paging Dr. Mengele! Paging Dr. Mengele!"

    I once talked to a guy, whose sister worked as an anesthesiologist. He told me, that his sister had told him, that about 70% of the knowledge she uses in her job was gained between the years 1933 and 1945.

  56. @Reg Cæsar

    Normal people looking at a fork in the road.

    On the left is Buzz’s lifestyle, on the right is death by Coronavirus.

    Smiles as they take that right turn.
     
    As Yogi advised, when you come to a fork in the road, take it.

    Yogi is one of my favorite philosophers, but when I come to a fork in the road, I always wonder who dropped it. It’s always one of the plastic kind, like Occam’s butter knife. Having OCD, I don’t take it.

    (Note: My disorder manifests itself in other types of checking behavior and obsessions. I am actually not a germophobe, and would have no problem picking up a plastic fork in the road.)

    • LOL: MBlanc46
    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson Three
    I share your perspective Buzz. Folie a deux, my friend, folie a deux.
    , @Reg Cæsar

    It’s always one of the plastic kind...
     
    What if you come to a spork in the road?


    https://cdn3.volusion.com/no4tr.u43q3/v/vspfiles/photos/705330-2T.jpg


    Not to be confused with "spork[s]", the overheated hoplophobe who wrote for lefty sites in the previous decade.

    https://www.dailykos.com/user/sporks
  57. I have been listening to the advice of the medical experts. I observe social distancing and wear an N-95 mask, nitrile gloves, and clear safety glasses at the supermarket, where I shop when I know the store is the least likely to be crowded. However, I remain skeptical about some of the risks and I would like to see some research on them. For example, they say I could get the virus when I take my mail from the mailbox, because the postal worker may have left traces of it on the envelopes, where it can remain dangerous for hours. How realistic is it that I could be infected from that level of contact? Are there any other diseases that can be communicated that easily? Is this the most communicable disease of all time?

    • Replies: @moshe
    Imagine if this level of attention was paid to car accidents.

    If you are an American, your likelihood of dying in a car accident is 1/70.

    Your likelihood of being permanently damaged in a car accident is 1/40.

    ____________

    Look, this corona thing is real but it's no more real than other, more serious, dangers.

    What it is is *New!* *Fresh off the Lot!* *Something to Get Excited About!*

    So what caused the worldwide shutdown?

    Israel, Iran, China and the US can't all be equally childish and *IMMENSELY IGNORANT OF BASIC STATISTICS* so as to agree that this is a Big Deal. So what happened?

    Well, what caused The Great War? or The Great Awakening? or any other craze that broke up the humdrum of regular life for a while?

    A whole lot of different straws on the back of one poor camel.

    Which one broke the camel's back isn't too relevant but it IS the one that makes it into the history books. Gavrilo Princip, Coronavirus, etc.

    But it isn't the true answer. The true answer is more complex and way too deep to get at.

    What's more productive however is to look at the newfound thing, be it terror of doorknobs or Mormonism and see whether we like it. Is it good.

    Ought we join or oppose this latest religious craze or just sit it out.

    And the answer is likely to be different for different people.

    But one thing is for sure: We're in the midst of a craze and propaganda is shouted from every avenue. Even going along with the demands of the new religious craze is propaganda to whomever sees you obediently doing so.

    All in all, I don't mind this religion.

    It impeeds upon my life (I'm one of the few non-agoraphobes here) but it seems to have a salutory effect upon the national conversation.

    In any case, I can do no more about this religion than I can about the speed limit so I acceot it for what it is but BY GOD don't mistake me for someone who takes it seriously. I may spend hours on the phone advising my father in New York City but had the national conversation been about car accidents I might have spent those hours speaking with him about that subject.

    In short, the world's reaction to the novo-coronavirus may or may not be good but the stated reasons for that reaction are not honest.
    , @Chrisnonymous
    No. There are viruses like norovirus that are probably much more transmissible. Also, I believe if mail were an issue, this would have been identified vis-a-vis annual flu outbreaks years ago. There would be clear patterns, like suddenly everyone on X mail route is sick at the same time.
  58. @Buzz Mohawk
    OCD here. The kind of attention we now have to pay to minor details is familiar to me and has been a source of suffering and interruption for 45 years. This is actually easier for me to adapt to than it is for people without OCD. I have been checking and rechecking little steps of daily life since 1975.

    So, I say to my fellow humans: Welcome to my world.

    You have my sincere sympathy. I’m not the hours-every-day-spent-washing-my-hands type but I do have my quirks.

    For the last year or two, I’ve been arranging my life so that, except for walking the dog, I only have to leave my property once or twice a month. I’m not agoraphobic, just not very social. Last January, I stayed on my property for 3 weeks without running out of any necessities. For me, this really is “Welcome to my world”.

    I hope this crisis will not cause your OCD to go into overdrive.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    Good luck to you, Kylie. Your ability to camp out without any outside supplies is commendable. No OCD overdrive here. It was worse when I was younger: I was what today you would call a STEM student, but could no longer concentrate on that. A dream job for me would have been working at JPL in Pasadena, or at an observatory somewhere, had I been so lucky, but, alas, I ended up in banking and investments, which I have always thought is a good career for people who can only apply a fraction of their brains to work.
  59. anon[852] • Disclaimer says:
    @Faraday's Bobcat
    It seems like outbreaks are correlated with dense clusters of people breathing the same air for an extended period of time, like in a nursing home, subway or house of worship. It's no secret that aerosol transmission is likely to be important, but it seems like it takes more than just being within six feet of one infected person. Is it possible air handling systems are somehow concentrating or cultivating the virus and spewing it all over people standing near vents, like happened with Legionnaires' Disease?

    It seems like outbreaks are correlated with dense clusters of people breathing the same air for an extended period of time, like in a nursing home, subway or house of worship.

    Or Army barracks.

    https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-1988-04-08-8803070326-story.html

    Have not yet found the 1980’s Walter Reed study referred to in the Trib article above.

    There is supposedly an older Army flu study in which volunteers walked right through an older 40-man barracks – in one door, down the hall or between the bunks, out the other door – without talking, or touching, or even getting close to the sick men in the barracks. Some percentage of volunteers who just walked through the room later contracted flu. I’m looking for this study as well, no success so far.

    Contagion is still confusing with COVD-19. There is clearly a fecal route. There is obviously a nasal mucous route. Almost certainly a sneeze cloud route. But also people who share a cruise ship with obviously sick people who don’t develop it – asymptomatic, or what?

    Avoiding sharing enclosed spaces with people in unknown health is prudent, for sure.

    We can expect the Germans to produce good data.

    • Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome
    Were the test subjects black?
  60. @Neoconned
    LOL.

    Zee Germ-Mens are going to do what the Italians could not. I still think its weird that China & Iran were the hardest hit initially....

    If you’re implying that the origin of the current crisis was an attack orchestrated by the U.S. deep state, wouldn’t it have been RUSSIA rather than China that was the target along with Iran? In all the years prior to this, I heard very little serious criticism of China from the establishment in contrast with the systematic shrieking about Russia even prior to the 2016 election. Yet Russia has been relatively unscathed so far.

    I think the deep state is certainly nefarious, and this would not be beyond them, but I really don’t think in this case they are responsible. It really does sound like something that inadvertently escaped from a Chinese lab into the nearby wet market.

    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson Three

    If you’re implying that the origin of the current crisis was an attack orchestrated by the U.S. deep state, wouldn’t it have been RUSSIA rather than China that was the target along with Iran?
     
    Excellent point Sam. May your post travel from your keystrokes to the eyes of Ron Unz.
  61. @Harry Baldwin
    I have been listening to the advice of the medical experts. I observe social distancing and wear an N-95 mask, nitrile gloves, and clear safety glasses at the supermarket, where I shop when I know the store is the least likely to be crowded. However, I remain skeptical about some of the risks and I would like to see some research on them. For example, they say I could get the virus when I take my mail from the mailbox, because the postal worker may have left traces of it on the envelopes, where it can remain dangerous for hours. How realistic is it that I could be infected from that level of contact? Are there any other diseases that can be communicated that easily? Is this the most communicable disease of all time?

    Imagine if this level of attention was paid to car accidents.

    If you are an American, your likelihood of dying in a car accident is 1/70.

    Your likelihood of being permanently damaged in a car accident is 1/40.

    ____________

    Look, this corona thing is real but it’s no more real than other, more serious, dangers.

    What it is is *New!* *Fresh off the Lot!* *Something to Get Excited About!*

    So what caused the worldwide shutdown?

    Israel, Iran, China and the US can’t all be equally childish and *IMMENSELY IGNORANT OF BASIC STATISTICS* so as to agree that this is a Big Deal. So what happened?

    Well, what caused The Great War? or The Great Awakening? or any other craze that broke up the humdrum of regular life for a while?

    A whole lot of different straws on the back of one poor camel.

    Which one broke the camel’s back isn’t too relevant but it IS the one that makes it into the history books. Gavrilo Princip, Coronavirus, etc.

    But it isn’t the true answer. The true answer is more complex and way too deep to get at.

    What’s more productive however is to look at the newfound thing, be it terror of doorknobs or Mormonism and see whether we like it. Is it good.

    Ought we join or oppose this latest religious craze or just sit it out.

    And the answer is likely to be different for different people.

    But one thing is for sure: We’re in the midst of a craze and propaganda is shouted from every avenue. Even going along with the demands of the new religious craze is propaganda to whomever sees you obediently doing so.

    All in all, I don’t mind this religion.

    It impeeds upon my life (I’m one of the few non-agoraphobes here) but it seems to have a salutory effect upon the national conversation.

    In any case, I can do no more about this religion than I can about the speed limit so I acceot it for what it is but BY GOD don’t mistake me for someone who takes it seriously. I may spend hours on the phone advising my father in New York City but had the national conversation been about car accidents I might have spent those hours speaking with him about that subject.

    In short, the world’s reaction to the novo-coronavirus may or may not be good but the stated reasons for that reaction are not honest.

    • Troll: Corvinus
    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    I've heard people express the notion that the Corona Pandemic must be real and serious (I agree it is now serious, I'm still highly doubtful about it being real) because the Chinese were going apes**t over it. Surely, the Chinese wouldn't do anything so foolish as to knee-cap themselves for no good reason?

    Yeah - sure - the same people who inflicted the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution on themselves. The same people who are notorious tetraphobes and who drink tiger-dick soup to promote virility. They would never do anything crazy.

    , @HA
    "Imagine if this level of attention was paid to car accidents. If you are an American, your likelihood of dying in a car accident is 1/70. Your likelihood of being permanently damaged in a car accident is 1/40."

    Your analogy comparing coronavirus to car accident deaths is bad

    Again, a car wreck is in general NOT a contagious disease. It does NOT exhibit exponential growth (unless we're talking about the special of pile-ups for which the R_0 at most approaches 1). The uncertainties are NOT in the exponent.

    I realize people keep wanting to make this lame analogy, and this won't be the last time we hear of it, but it's not a winning argument except possibly to other math illiterates who also have no idea what exponential growth is like, and those people are already on your side.

  62. If you look at the curve, the German are just 5 days behind the britts and 9 behind the French and 18 behind Italians .

    Their very low death rate is only a consequence of the big testing.

    Their low death numbers is the consequence of having less than 1% of the population infected, when it’s around 2% in the UK, 3% in France and 15% in Spain.

    Soon having twice more ICU will give them another 2 weeks reflief, but there is no reason they wouldn’t be overwhelmed.

    The best hope now is the masks mitigation and the French treatment …

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    Can you explain how testing is keeping the death rate low?

    (I am actually interested to know what people think. I don't see how testing helps with either treating the disease or preventing its spread--just with letting people go on with their normal lives in the event of a negative result.)
  63. eD says:
    @Federalist
    Are an unusually large number of people dying? From what I've read, the answer appears to be no. Perhaps that is not correct but it should be easy to figure out. It's suspicious that we don't hear much about it.

    The news media breathlessly report the number of new "cases" everyday. Of course the numbers keep going up as more people are tested. When it comes to deaths, the issue is what deaths are caused by the coronavirus. Is every death of a person who tested positive reported as a coronavirus death? How many would have died anyway? Are more people dying from this particular virus that has a name than would have died from a genetic flu-like virus?

    Are more people dying than usual for this time of the year? If so, how many more?

    “Are more people dying than usual for this time of the year?”

    Actually, no.

    The key number is number of deaths during the outbreak compared to normal number of deaths during similar periods in non-outbreak years. And even in the hardest hit areas, there is just not a big difference.

    As some of the other commentators have caught on, number of cases is really just a function of how many people have been tested (and sometimes not even that, since cases have been diagnosed without any testing, similar to HIV in Africa). And there is enough evidence that enough deaths that have little to nothing to do with the virus are being classified as due to the virus that number of deaths is useless without comparing the total to previous years at about the same time.

    • Thanks: Federalist
    • Replies: @Hail
    Good comment.

    It's for these reasons, among others, that experts and specialists are now largely coming around to the view that fatality rates are <0.1%, in other words a laughably minor affair. Measurement problems will linger but one thing is for sure: It simply isn't a mass-killer.

    The commenter Je Suis Omar Mateen is using the phrase CoronaHoax to describe a bloodlusting media drumbeating Big Scary Numbers, terrifying people, shutting down society, and still lazily and histrionically implying a 3, 4, 5, 8% death rate.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUCxwxbWAAM8xz0.jpg

    Those who've studied enough math to know the difference between 5%, 0.5%, and 0.05% (the latter the actual fatality rate emerging), will know what Je Suis Omar Mateen means by "CoronaHoax."

  64. @Harry Baldwin
    I have been listening to the advice of the medical experts. I observe social distancing and wear an N-95 mask, nitrile gloves, and clear safety glasses at the supermarket, where I shop when I know the store is the least likely to be crowded. However, I remain skeptical about some of the risks and I would like to see some research on them. For example, they say I could get the virus when I take my mail from the mailbox, because the postal worker may have left traces of it on the envelopes, where it can remain dangerous for hours. How realistic is it that I could be infected from that level of contact? Are there any other diseases that can be communicated that easily? Is this the most communicable disease of all time?

    No. There are viruses like norovirus that are probably much more transmissible. Also, I believe if mail were an issue, this would have been identified vis-a-vis annual flu outbreaks years ago. There would be clear patterns, like suddenly everyone on X mail route is sick at the same time.

  65. @Bruno
    If you look at the curve, the German are just 5 days behind the britts and 9 behind the French and 18 behind Italians .

    Their very low death rate is only a consequence of the big testing.

    Their low death numbers is the consequence of having less than 1% of the population infected, when it’s around 2% in the UK, 3% in France and 15% in Spain.

    Soon having twice more ICU will give them another 2 weeks reflief, but there is no reason they wouldn’t be overwhelmed.

    The best hope now is the masks mitigation and the French treatment ...

    Can you explain how testing is keeping the death rate low?

    (I am actually interested to know what people think. I don’t see how testing helps with either treating the disease or preventing its spread–just with letting people go on with their normal lives in the event of a negative result.)

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    More testing finds more cases out there that otherwise would not have been counted.

    The vast majority of cases are not serious: a person with a mild cough and some slight illness doesn't go to a hospital or doctor, so he probably doesn't get tested unless there is an aggressive, wide-ranging test program in place.

    Adding those cases to the total makes the death rate lower, because the death rate = Deaths / Total cases.

  66. NC says:

    Steve, drop the pills into the cap and then drop the pills from cap to mouth. If you take the pills out with your hands you risk contaminating the entire bottle.

    Heavy handwashing will cause skin cracks around the nail bed and between the knuckles, which can cause infections. Avoid hand sanitizers and use a good soap with aloe instead when possible.

    Use elbows, wrists, knees, feet or whatever if possible instead of hands when you have to touch public stuff. Also obvious stuff like using your own pen, washing hands immediately when leaving a public place, using a paper towel then immediately disposing of it when you have to touch a door knob or something in public.

    I’m not personally OCD or a germophobe. I was a volunteer EMT for a while and these were the typical, casual precautions we took in dirty environments.

  67. @Brabantian
    Germany's Dr Wolfgang Wodarg, a pulmonary (lung) specialist, has become a leading voice amongst the busload of physicians in the counter-movement of coronavirus-panic scepticism ... How every year there are tens and hundreds of thousands of similar 'flu-linked' deaths of weak and elderly, with rather deceptive labelling as to who dies FROM the coronavirus, versus dying WITH the virus (like a dying cancer patient with cold or flu or hemmorhoids as well)

    Dr Wodarg suggests doctors and scientists are insanely affiliating themselves with 'official' narratives to better get government 'research funds' & professional brownie points - English subtitles, 11 minutes
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_AyuhbnPOI

    More German sceptical doctors on the corona panic, in this video after about the 10-minute mark, reposted in a far-right format after being censored on Google's YouTube
    https://www.bitchute.com/video/glac70ZjcH5N/

    Other major sceptics amongst the ''Physicians & Experts for Coronavirus Truth' going against prevailing narratives -

    Suggesting we should be more worried about life-destroying lockdowns and mass quarantines, and worldwide economic destruction ... rather than panic about another flu season of mortality, with the majority of deaths actually people who would be dying in the next year anyway from other causes

    Swiss doctor collating much material from colleagues - see extensive updates below initial article
    https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/12-experts-question-covid-19-panic

    https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/28/10-more-experts-criticising-the-coronavirus-panic/

    Some summaries and highlights of above citing the physicians by name -

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8163587/PETER-HITCHENS-Great-Panic-foolish-freedom-broken-economy-crippled.html

    https://www.henrymakow.com/2020/03/coronavirus-is-a-fraud.html

    http://aanirfan.blogspot.com/2020/03/coronavirus-false-flag-part-2.html
  68. @Brabantian
    Germany's Dr Wolfgang Wodarg, a pulmonary (lung) specialist, has become a leading voice amongst the busload of physicians in the counter-movement of coronavirus-panic scepticism ... How every year there are tens and hundreds of thousands of similar 'flu-linked' deaths of weak and elderly, with rather deceptive labelling as to who dies FROM the coronavirus, versus dying WITH the virus (like a dying cancer patient with cold or flu or hemmorhoids as well)

    Dr Wodarg suggests doctors and scientists are insanely affiliating themselves with 'official' narratives to better get government 'research funds' & professional brownie points - English subtitles, 11 minutes
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_AyuhbnPOI

    More German sceptical doctors on the corona panic, in this video after about the 10-minute mark, reposted in a far-right format after being censored on Google's YouTube
    https://www.bitchute.com/video/glac70ZjcH5N/

    Other major sceptics amongst the ''Physicians & Experts for Coronavirus Truth' going against prevailing narratives -

    Suggesting we should be more worried about life-destroying lockdowns and mass quarantines, and worldwide economic destruction ... rather than panic about another flu season of mortality, with the majority of deaths actually people who would be dying in the next year anyway from other causes

    Swiss doctor collating much material from colleagues - see extensive updates below initial article
    https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/12-experts-question-covid-19-panic

    https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/28/10-more-experts-criticising-the-coronavirus-panic/

    Some summaries and highlights of above citing the physicians by name -

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8163587/PETER-HITCHENS-Great-Panic-foolish-freedom-broken-economy-crippled.html

    https://www.henrymakow.com/2020/03/coronavirus-is-a-fraud.html

    http://aanirfan.blogspot.com/2020/03/coronavirus-false-flag-part-2.html
  69. @Buzz Mohawk
    Yogi is one of my favorite philosophers, but when I come to a fork in the road, I always wonder who dropped it. It's always one of the plastic kind, like Occam's butter knife. Having OCD, I don't take it.

    (Note: My disorder manifests itself in other types of checking behavior and obsessions. I am actually not a germophobe, and would have no problem picking up a plastic fork in the road.)

    I share your perspective Buzz. Folie a deux, my friend, folie a deux.

  70. @Sam Malone
    If you're implying that the origin of the current crisis was an attack orchestrated by the U.S. deep state, wouldn't it have been RUSSIA rather than China that was the target along with Iran? In all the years prior to this, I heard very little serious criticism of China from the establishment in contrast with the systematic shrieking about Russia even prior to the 2016 election. Yet Russia has been relatively unscathed so far.

    I think the deep state is certainly nefarious, and this would not be beyond them, but I really don't think in this case they are responsible. It really does sound like something that inadvertently escaped from a Chinese lab into the nearby wet market.

    If you’re implying that the origin of the current crisis was an attack orchestrated by the U.S. deep state, wouldn’t it have been RUSSIA rather than China that was the target along with Iran?

    Excellent point Sam. May your post travel from your keystrokes to the eyes of Ron Unz.

  71. @anon
    Carnival Cruise lines (CCL) still has about 6,000 passengers at sea on various cruise ships.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/carinval-cruise-ship-6000-passengers-at-sea-coronavirus/

    Several are now off the coast of Florida. These are floating petri dishes worthy of investigation.

    Bill Burr told us he would do this! It’s pretty funny to watch him actually go through with it.

  72. Hail says: • Website
    @Mr. Anon
    German physician and microbiologist Sucharit Bhakdi on Coronavirus:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsExPrHCHbw

    See also the same in written form,

    https://swprs.org/open-letter-from-professor-sucharit-bhakdi-to-german-chancellor-dr-angela-merkel/

    An Open Letter from Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi, Professor Emeritus of Medical Microbiology at the Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, to the German Chancellor Dr. Angela Merkel.

    Professor Bhakdi calls for an urgent reassessment of the response to Covid-19 and asks the Chancellor five crucial questions. The let­ter is dated March 26. This is an inofficial translation; see the original letter in German as a PDF.

    [MORE]

    Open Letter

    Dear Chancellor,

    As Emeritus of the Johannes-Gutenberg-University in Mainz and longtime director of the Institute for Medical Microbiology, I feel obliged to critically question the far-reaching restrictions on public life that we are currently taking on ourselves in order to reduce the spread of the COVID-19 virus.

    It is expressly not my intention to play down the dangers of the virus or to spread a political message. However, I feel it is my duty to make a scientific contribution to putting the current data and facts into perspective – and, in addition, to ask questions that are in danger of being lost in the heated debate.

    The reason for my concern lies above all in the truly unforeseeable socio-economic consequences of the drastic containment measures which are currently being applied in large parts of Europe and which are also already being practiced on a large scale in Germany.

    My wish is to discuss critically – and with the necessary foresight – the advantages and disadvantages of restricting public life and the resulting long-term effects. […..]

    https://swprs.org/open-letter-from-professor-sucharit-bhakdi-to-german-chancellor-dr-angela-merkel/

    German Infectologist Decimates COVID Doomsday Cult in Open Letter to Merkel

    A medical expert with integrity asks the German Chancellor five devastating questions about her mindless coronavirus lockdown

    The five questions are:

    My question: Did the projections make a distinction between symptom-free infected people and actual, sick patients – i.e. people who develop symptoms?

    My question: How does the current workload of intensive care units with patients with diagnosed COVID-19 compare to other coronavirus infections, and to what extent will this data be taken into account in further decision-making by the federal government? In addition: Has the above study been taken into account in the planning so far? Here too, of course, „diagnosed“ means that the virus plays a decisive role in the patient’s state of illness, and not that previous illnesses play a greater role.

    My question: Has there already been a random sample of the healthy general population to validate the real spread of the virus, or is this planned in the near future?

    My question: Has Germany simply followed this trend of a COVID-19 general suspicion? And: is it intended to continue this categorisation uncritically as in other countries? How, then, is a distinction to be made between genuine corona-related deaths and accidental virus presence at the time of death?

    My question: What efforts are being made to make the population aware of these elementary differences and to make people understand that scenarios like those in Italy or Spain are not realistic here?

  73. Hail says: • Website
    @eD
    "Are more people dying than usual for this time of the year?"

    Actually, no.

    The key number is number of deaths during the outbreak compared to normal number of deaths during similar periods in non-outbreak years. And even in the hardest hit areas, there is just not a big difference.

    As some of the other commentators have caught on, number of cases is really just a function of how many people have been tested (and sometimes not even that, since cases have been diagnosed without any testing, similar to HIV in Africa). And there is enough evidence that enough deaths that have little to nothing to do with the virus are being classified as due to the virus that number of deaths is useless without comparing the total to previous years at about the same time.

    Good comment.

    It’s for these reasons, among others, that experts and specialists are now largely coming around to the view that fatality rates are <0.1%, in other words a laughably minor affair. Measurement problems will linger but one thing is for sure: It simply isn't a mass-killer.

    The commenter Je Suis Omar Mateen is using the phrase CoronaHoax to describe a bloodlusting media drumbeating Big Scary Numbers, terrifying people, shutting down society, and still lazily and histrionically implying a 3, 4, 5, 8% death rate.

    Those who’ve studied enough math to know the difference between 5%, 0.5%, and 0.05% (the latter the actual fatality rate emerging), will know what Je Suis Omar Mateen means by “CoronaHoax.”

    • Thanks: The Wild Geese Howard
  74. @Buzz Mohawk
    Yogi is one of my favorite philosophers, but when I come to a fork in the road, I always wonder who dropped it. It's always one of the plastic kind, like Occam's butter knife. Having OCD, I don't take it.

    (Note: My disorder manifests itself in other types of checking behavior and obsessions. I am actually not a germophobe, and would have no problem picking up a plastic fork in the road.)

    It’s always one of the plastic kind…

    What if you come to a spork in the road?

    Not to be confused with “spork[s]”, the overheated hoplophobe who wrote for lefty sites in the previous decade.

    https://www.dailykos.com/user/sporks

  75. @anon
    It seems like outbreaks are correlated with dense clusters of people breathing the same air for an extended period of time, like in a nursing home, subway or house of worship.

    Or Army barracks.

    https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-1988-04-08-8803070326-story.html

    Have not yet found the 1980's Walter Reed study referred to in the Trib article above.

    There is supposedly an older Army flu study in which volunteers walked right through an older 40-man barracks - in one door, down the hall or between the bunks, out the other door - without talking, or touching, or even getting close to the sick men in the barracks. Some percentage of volunteers who just walked through the room later contracted flu. I'm looking for this study as well, no success so far.

    Contagion is still confusing with COVD-19. There is clearly a fecal route. There is obviously a nasal mucous route. Almost certainly a sneeze cloud route. But also people who share a cruise ship with obviously sick people who don't develop it - asymptomatic, or what?

    Avoiding sharing enclosed spaces with people in unknown health is prudent, for sure.

    We can expect the Germans to produce good data.

    Were the test subjects black?

  76. Hail says: • Website
    @Federalist
    Are an unusually large number of people dying? From what I've read, the answer appears to be no. Perhaps that is not correct but it should be easy to figure out. It's suspicious that we don't hear much about it.

    The news media breathlessly report the number of new "cases" everyday. Of course the numbers keep going up as more people are tested. When it comes to deaths, the issue is what deaths are caused by the coronavirus. Is every death of a person who tested positive reported as a coronavirus death? How many would have died anyway? Are more people dying from this particular virus that has a name than would have died from a genetic flu-like virus?

    Are more people dying than usual for this time of the year? If so, how many more?

    Are an unusually large number of people dying?

    A good question to ask.

    You refer to Total Mortality Rate, total deaths per capita, tracked over time. Nowhere in the world, not even epicenters, has registered a particularly higher-than-usual total mortality rate.

    But don’t take my word for it. I think I can answer your question with real data, very good data out of Europe over a period of years:

    It turns out that flu season was mild for the first months of the 2019-20 winter season (for whatever reason) compared to most recent years, as you’ll see below. People of the future trying to make sense of this CoronaHysteria of 2020 may point to this (an unusually mild flu season) as a partial explanation for the panic. A slight pick-up in late-season, a kind of statistical correction for a previously mild season, created conditions that allowed the media to induce panic, triggering vague memories of movies people had seen, basically.

    Here is a convenient, rolling line-graph of continuous data for the past four years (European Monitoring of Excess Mortality for Public Health Action). This is All Deaths. The regular rise and fall of winter flu season is evident:

    The data is current through Week 12 of 2020; we’ve just completed Week 13.

    (If you translated the bumps in marginal deaths into a Big Scary Number, attributed these deaths to a mysterious, distant-foreign origin New Virus!, then flashed pictures of Chinese in hazmat suits, then colluded with a lockstep, frenzied media to just begin drumbeating it, over and over and over, nonstop, saturation coverage, I am sure one could artificially induce a panic in any of those previous years, too.)

    _________________

    Good ongoing coverage of the Corona Mass Panic is at a website called Off Guardian. They have some maps based on this data, showing the spatial component of some of the peaks you see in the graph above.

    https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/30/covid19-yet-to-impact-europes-overall-mortality

    Here is the map showing Europe’s excess mortality for Week 12 of 2020 (19th-25th March):

    As you can see, currently, the vast majority of Europe shows “no excess”. That means deaths are either at or below expected levels. Italy is the one obvious exception. But note it is only on “high”, not “very high”.

    For some context, maybe we should compare it to previous years.

    Here is week 6 of 2019:

    Week 6 of 2019 was a peak of flu season that year:

    And 2017-18 season reached heights in the following places:

    Note which are the hard-hit countries by the peak flu seasons of the 2010s. Compare to the present.

    • Thanks: Federalist
    • Replies: @Hail
    A follow-up with the Week 13 numbers, just released, taking us into late March:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/masks-inbound-and-outbound-protection/#comment-3811940


    There is no sudden skyrocketing of total mortality rates even among the most-at-risk-cohort, with this total-mortality data now available through March 28, which is well into the crisis [and] corroborates the skeptics’ view that has been argued for over the past three weeks.
     
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUm9JJRXsAIOQg9.png
  77. Hail says: • Website
    @Sam Haysom
    Closets aren’t conducive to much noticing. I hope when Steve emerges his reputation isn’t as completely destroyed as Greg Cochran’s will be. It’s hard to think that anyone younger than 40 will have much interest in him.

    I hope when Steve emerges his reputation isn’t as completely destroyed as Greg Cochran’s will be.

    Is Greg Cochran a pedal-to-the-metal CoronaPanic person?

    Whatever this is, this split in reactions, I don’t think it’s necessarily (or maybe better said, ‘fully’) an ‘Age’ thing.

    I’ve been doing some noticing, myself. I’ve noticed quite lot of the leading anti-CoronaPanic experts/specialists are of the b.1940s cohort; the younger experts are holding their tongues.

    So these b.1940s experts are choosing to not mask-up, wrap their bodies in an blanket inside a special-made anti-Corona toiler-paper fort and pray to one or more gods (depending on their tradition), instead using their voices as elder statesmen of their fields to sound the alarm and try to limit the serious damage CoronaHysteria is doing.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    I do know one thing. I will never pay any attention to Tucker Carlson again. He's been one of the chief flame-fanners in all this.
  78. @Hail

    I hope when Steve emerges his reputation isn’t as completely destroyed as Greg Cochran’s will be.
     
    Is Greg Cochran a pedal-to-the-metal CoronaPanic person?

    Whatever this is, this split in reactions, I don't think it's necessarily (or maybe better said, 'fully') an 'Age' thing.

    I've been doing some noticing, myself. I've noticed quite lot of the leading anti-CoronaPanic experts/specialists are of the b.1940s cohort; the younger experts are holding their tongues.

    So these b.1940s experts are choosing to not mask-up, wrap their bodies in an blanket inside a special-made anti-Corona toiler-paper fort and pray to one or more gods (depending on their tradition), instead using their voices as elder statesmen of their fields to sound the alarm and try to limit the serious damage CoronaHysteria is doing.

    I do know one thing. I will never pay any attention to Tucker Carlson again. He’s been one of the chief flame-fanners in all this.

    • Replies: @Hail
    I unfortunately agree with you.

    Tucker Carlson's reputation is going to take a big hit on this, I am sad to say.
    , @Charles Erwin Wilson Three

    I will never pay any attention to Tucker Carlson again. He’s been one of the chief flame-fanners in all this.
     
    Tucker understood Trump's vulnerability by Trump taking a hands-off approach. That is why he went to see the President. Tucker is beating the drum for America getting back to work.

    Baby..., bathwater.
  79. @Federalist
    Are an unusually large number of people dying? From what I've read, the answer appears to be no. Perhaps that is not correct but it should be easy to figure out. It's suspicious that we don't hear much about it.

    The news media breathlessly report the number of new "cases" everyday. Of course the numbers keep going up as more people are tested. When it comes to deaths, the issue is what deaths are caused by the coronavirus. Is every death of a person who tested positive reported as a coronavirus death? How many would have died anyway? Are more people dying from this particular virus that has a name than would have died from a genetic flu-like virus?

    Are more people dying than usual for this time of the year? If so, how many more?

    Are an unusually large number of people dying? From what I’ve read, the answer appears to be no. Perhaps that is not correct but it should be easy to figure out. It’s suspicious that we don’t hear much about it.

    That’s really the key question. The Cable News Death Counters keep rolling up every day, but are these people who died from coronavirus or people who died from what old people (and it is mostly old people) die of everyday and they happen to have SARS-COV-2? When we say somebody died of old age, we often mean they were in poor overall health, had one or more chronic diseases, came down with pneumonia, either through normal pathogen transmission or they acquired it after being hospitalized (often for a fall), and die from that.

    The news media breathlessly report the number of new “cases” everyday. Of course the numbers keep going up as more people are tested. When it comes to deaths, the issue is what deaths are caused by the coronavirus. Is every death of a person who tested positive reported as a coronavirus death?

    Well……………..

    COVID-19 Alert No. 2March 24, 2020 New ICD code introduced for COVID-19 deaths

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf

    Will COVID-19 be the underlying cause? The underlying cause depends upon what and where conditions are reported on the death certificate. However, the rules for coding and selection of the underlying cause of death are expected to result in COVID-19 being the underlying cause more often than not.

    Should “COVID-19” be reported on the death certificate only with a confirmed test?COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death.

    Are more people dying than usual for this time of the year? If so, how many more?

    That is the key question, and yet nobody in the media is asking that question.

  80. @moshe
    Imagine if this level of attention was paid to car accidents.

    If you are an American, your likelihood of dying in a car accident is 1/70.

    Your likelihood of being permanently damaged in a car accident is 1/40.

    ____________

    Look, this corona thing is real but it's no more real than other, more serious, dangers.

    What it is is *New!* *Fresh off the Lot!* *Something to Get Excited About!*

    So what caused the worldwide shutdown?

    Israel, Iran, China and the US can't all be equally childish and *IMMENSELY IGNORANT OF BASIC STATISTICS* so as to agree that this is a Big Deal. So what happened?

    Well, what caused The Great War? or The Great Awakening? or any other craze that broke up the humdrum of regular life for a while?

    A whole lot of different straws on the back of one poor camel.

    Which one broke the camel's back isn't too relevant but it IS the one that makes it into the history books. Gavrilo Princip, Coronavirus, etc.

    But it isn't the true answer. The true answer is more complex and way too deep to get at.

    What's more productive however is to look at the newfound thing, be it terror of doorknobs or Mormonism and see whether we like it. Is it good.

    Ought we join or oppose this latest religious craze or just sit it out.

    And the answer is likely to be different for different people.

    But one thing is for sure: We're in the midst of a craze and propaganda is shouted from every avenue. Even going along with the demands of the new religious craze is propaganda to whomever sees you obediently doing so.

    All in all, I don't mind this religion.

    It impeeds upon my life (I'm one of the few non-agoraphobes here) but it seems to have a salutory effect upon the national conversation.

    In any case, I can do no more about this religion than I can about the speed limit so I acceot it for what it is but BY GOD don't mistake me for someone who takes it seriously. I may spend hours on the phone advising my father in New York City but had the national conversation been about car accidents I might have spent those hours speaking with him about that subject.

    In short, the world's reaction to the novo-coronavirus may or may not be good but the stated reasons for that reaction are not honest.

    I’ve heard people express the notion that the Corona Pandemic must be real and serious (I agree it is now serious, I’m still highly doubtful about it being real) because the Chinese were going apes**t over it. Surely, the Chinese wouldn’t do anything so foolish as to knee-cap themselves for no good reason?

    Yeah – sure – the same people who inflicted the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution on themselves. The same people who are notorious tetraphobes and who drink tiger-dick soup to promote virility. They would never do anything crazy.

    • Agree: Federalist, Kratoklastes
  81. @Kylie
    You have my sincere sympathy. I'm not the hours-every-day-spent-washing-my-hands type but I do have my quirks.

    For the last year or two, I've been arranging my life so that, except for walking the dog, I only have to leave my property once or twice a month. I'm not agoraphobic, just not very social. Last January, I stayed on my property for 3 weeks without running out of any necessities. For me, this really is "Welcome to my world".

    I hope this crisis will not cause your OCD to go into overdrive.

    Good luck to you, Kylie. Your ability to camp out without any outside supplies is commendable. No OCD overdrive here. It was worse when I was younger: I was what today you would call a STEM student, but could no longer concentrate on that. A dream job for me would have been working at JPL in Pasadena, or at an observatory somewhere, had I been so lucky, but, alas, I ended up in banking and investments, which I have always thought is a good career for people who can only apply a fraction of their brains to work.

  82. @moshe
    The great thing about the coronavirus is that nobody will "die from the flu" this year!

    In fact, hospitals and doctors will be able to demonstrate incredible statistics regarding almost every sort of illness and injury.

    Cone in for severe brain damage but die of.....Corona!

    He came in for lung cancer but died from the Corona he caught here.

    In lesser hospitals everyone who was admitted for anything serious is actually statistically Dead from Corona.

    Yeah, it will be a jubilee year for medical malpractice.

  83. @Chrisnonymous
    Can you explain how testing is keeping the death rate low?

    (I am actually interested to know what people think. I don't see how testing helps with either treating the disease or preventing its spread--just with letting people go on with their normal lives in the event of a negative result.)

    More testing finds more cases out there that otherwise would not have been counted.

    The vast majority of cases are not serious: a person with a mild cough and some slight illness doesn’t go to a hospital or doctor, so he probably doesn’t get tested unless there is an aggressive, wide-ranging test program in place.

    Adding those cases to the total makes the death rate lower, because the death rate = Deaths / Total cases.

    • Agree: vhrm
    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    Yeah, but finding hidden cases to quarantine only works if you're testing everyone or testing randomly. In the case where someone has a mild cough, they just need to stay home. You don't need to test them, just tell people to go home. Likewise, your close co-worker gets sick? Okay, you stay home now for 2 weeks. Testing is only needed to let people return to work.

    When South Korea has antibody testing in the future, which every country will no doubt do, we will see if SK actually prevented spread with testing. It should be possible to tell with social network models combined with antibody data.
  84. @Lot
    My last airplane trip involved a lot of paranoid handwashing in the nearly empty airport and plane.

    The typical motion sink in the airport bathrooms and push down sink on the plane are bad. No way to get a good 20 second flow of hot water. The motion sink required lots of repeated hand flailing under it.

    Seriously dude–stop travelling, stop going to the store!
    I need you here to argue with.

    • Replies: @Lot
    I hear ya!

    This was the 2nd week of March, my outgoing flight was just before the SHTF. Won’t be flying again until June at soonest, I already cancelled a couple more trips.
  85. @Buzz Mohawk
    More testing finds more cases out there that otherwise would not have been counted.

    The vast majority of cases are not serious: a person with a mild cough and some slight illness doesn't go to a hospital or doctor, so he probably doesn't get tested unless there is an aggressive, wide-ranging test program in place.

    Adding those cases to the total makes the death rate lower, because the death rate = Deaths / Total cases.

    Yeah, but finding hidden cases to quarantine only works if you’re testing everyone or testing randomly. In the case where someone has a mild cough, they just need to stay home. You don’t need to test them, just tell people to go home. Likewise, your close co-worker gets sick? Okay, you stay home now for 2 weeks. Testing is only needed to let people return to work.

    When South Korea has antibody testing in the future, which every country will no doubt do, we will see if SK actually prevented spread with testing. It should be possible to tell with social network models combined with antibody data.

  86. @Lot
    My last airplane trip involved a lot of paranoid handwashing in the nearly empty airport and plane.

    The typical motion sink in the airport bathrooms and push down sink on the plane are bad. No way to get a good 20 second flow of hot water. The motion sink required lots of repeated hand flailing under it.

    All the hand washing is for naught if the public bathroom’s air has aerosolized COVID-19 from the urine, feces, and breath of infected persons.

    If you can smell it, you are breathing it.

    • Agree: dfordoom
  87. @Mr. Anon
    I do know one thing. I will never pay any attention to Tucker Carlson again. He's been one of the chief flame-fanners in all this.

    I unfortunately agree with you.

    Tucker Carlson’s reputation is going to take a big hit on this, I am sad to say.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    Tucker Carlson had Alex Berenson on, I hope to see the segment somewhere on the internet.
  88. HA says:
    @moshe
    Imagine if this level of attention was paid to car accidents.

    If you are an American, your likelihood of dying in a car accident is 1/70.

    Your likelihood of being permanently damaged in a car accident is 1/40.

    ____________

    Look, this corona thing is real but it's no more real than other, more serious, dangers.

    What it is is *New!* *Fresh off the Lot!* *Something to Get Excited About!*

    So what caused the worldwide shutdown?

    Israel, Iran, China and the US can't all be equally childish and *IMMENSELY IGNORANT OF BASIC STATISTICS* so as to agree that this is a Big Deal. So what happened?

    Well, what caused The Great War? or The Great Awakening? or any other craze that broke up the humdrum of regular life for a while?

    A whole lot of different straws on the back of one poor camel.

    Which one broke the camel's back isn't too relevant but it IS the one that makes it into the history books. Gavrilo Princip, Coronavirus, etc.

    But it isn't the true answer. The true answer is more complex and way too deep to get at.

    What's more productive however is to look at the newfound thing, be it terror of doorknobs or Mormonism and see whether we like it. Is it good.

    Ought we join or oppose this latest religious craze or just sit it out.

    And the answer is likely to be different for different people.

    But one thing is for sure: We're in the midst of a craze and propaganda is shouted from every avenue. Even going along with the demands of the new religious craze is propaganda to whomever sees you obediently doing so.

    All in all, I don't mind this religion.

    It impeeds upon my life (I'm one of the few non-agoraphobes here) but it seems to have a salutory effect upon the national conversation.

    In any case, I can do no more about this religion than I can about the speed limit so I acceot it for what it is but BY GOD don't mistake me for someone who takes it seriously. I may spend hours on the phone advising my father in New York City but had the national conversation been about car accidents I might have spent those hours speaking with him about that subject.

    In short, the world's reaction to the novo-coronavirus may or may not be good but the stated reasons for that reaction are not honest.

    “Imagine if this level of attention was paid to car accidents. If you are an American, your likelihood of dying in a car accident is 1/70. Your likelihood of being permanently damaged in a car accident is 1/40.”

    Your analogy comparing coronavirus to car accident deaths is bad

    Again, a car wreck is in general NOT a contagious disease. It does NOT exhibit exponential growth (unless we’re talking about the special of pile-ups for which the R_0 at most approaches 1). The uncertainties are NOT in the exponent.

    I realize people keep wanting to make this lame analogy, and this won’t be the last time we hear of it, but it’s not a winning argument except possibly to other math illiterates who also have no idea what exponential growth is like, and those people are already on your side.

  89. @Hail

    Are an unusually large number of people dying?
     
    A good question to ask.

    You refer to Total Mortality Rate, total deaths per capita, tracked over time. Nowhere in the world, not even epicenters, has registered a particularly higher-than-usual total mortality rate.

    But don't take my word for it. I think I can answer your question with real data, very good data out of Europe over a period of years:

    It turns out that flu season was mild for the first months of the 2019-20 winter season (for whatever reason) compared to most recent years, as you'll see below. People of the future trying to make sense of this CoronaHysteria of 2020 may point to this (an unusually mild flu season) as a partial explanation for the panic. A slight pick-up in late-season, a kind of statistical correction for a previously mild season, created conditions that allowed the media to induce panic, triggering vague memories of movies people had seen, basically.

    Here is a convenient, rolling line-graph of continuous data for the past four years (European Monitoring of Excess Mortality for Public Health Action). This is All Deaths. The regular rise and fall of winter flu season is evident:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUkB8CnWoAETwNv.png

    The data is current through Week 12 of 2020; we've just completed Week 13.

    (If you translated the bumps in marginal deaths into a Big Scary Number, attributed these deaths to a mysterious, distant-foreign origin New Virus!, then flashed pictures of Chinese in hazmat suits, then colluded with a lockstep, frenzied media to just begin drumbeating it, over and over and over, nonstop, saturation coverage, I am sure one could artificially induce a panic in any of those previous years, too.)

    _________________

    Good ongoing coverage of the Corona Mass Panic is at a website called Off Guardian. They have some maps based on this data, showing the spatial component of some of the peaks you see in the graph above.

    https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/30/covid19-yet-to-impact-europes-overall-mortality

    Here is the map showing Europe’s excess mortality for Week 12 of 2020 (19th-25th March):
     
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUkFWjtXQAEgRQy.jpg

    As you can see, currently, the vast majority of Europe shows “no excess”. That means deaths are either at or below expected levels. Italy is the one obvious exception. But note it is only on “high”, not “very high”.

    For some context, maybe we should compare it to previous years.

    Here is week 6 of 2019:
     
    Week 6 of 2019 was a peak of flu season that year:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUkFWjsXYAA-3Rc.jpg

    And 2017-18 season reached heights in the following places:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUkFWjrWAAAZaJe.jpg

    Note which are the hard-hit countries by the peak flu seasons of the 2010s. Compare to the present.

    A follow-up with the Week 13 numbers, just released, taking us into late March:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/masks-inbound-and-outbound-protection/#comment-3811940

    There is no sudden skyrocketing of total mortality rates even among the most-at-risk-cohort, with this total-mortality data now available through March 28, which is well into the crisis [and] corroborates the skeptics’ view that has been argued for over the past three weeks.

    • Replies: @Gabe Ruth
    This strikes me as an important line of inquiry, but I'm not ready to call hoax quite yet, because the death counts have only recently started to jump in the last week (I understand the issues with attribution to CV, just not ready to call the approach absurd) and also because the death count lags the case count, and that is going up at a pretty good rate.
    , @Kratoklastes
    That's such a good bit of evidence for the CTFD[1] hypothesis (the country-by-country one below is even better).

    Now I have to track down their data sources and grab everything required to do the same thing - this will be a key part of the "CTFD" tab if I ever get this fucking SEIR GUI finished.

    <sarc>

    If you squint and the light catches the charts 'just so', it's almost as if there's a pattern there... something that happens about the same time every year, give or take a week.

    Seems almost to have something to do with the seasons.

    A seasonal pattern, if you will.

    I bet nobody in the history of statistics has ever heard of a seasonal pattern.

    I'll go you halvsies on the patent fee and we will be rich.

     

    </sarc>

    (The sarc wasn't aimed at you - I've just had a lot of coffee today).

    Also, as far as the probabilities are concerned, the z-score bands look like they're based on σ for the fitted GLM, not σ for the underlying data.

    4σ bands should contain 99.994% of all observations, and the expected interval between 4σ events is once in 15,787 observations: with weekly data that's once every 302½ years. The bands ought to be wider, is what I'm getting at lol.


    [1] CTFD: Calm The Fuck Down.

  90. @Mr McKenna
    Seriously dude--stop travelling, stop going to the store!
    I need you here to argue with.

    I hear ya!

    This was the 2nd week of March, my outgoing flight was just before the SHTF. Won’t be flying again until June at soonest, I already cancelled a couple more trips.

  91. @Hail
    A follow-up with the Week 13 numbers, just released, taking us into late March:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/masks-inbound-and-outbound-protection/#comment-3811940


    There is no sudden skyrocketing of total mortality rates even among the most-at-risk-cohort, with this total-mortality data now available through March 28, which is well into the crisis [and] corroborates the skeptics’ view that has been argued for over the past three weeks.
     
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUm9JJRXsAIOQg9.png

    This strikes me as an important line of inquiry, but I’m not ready to call hoax quite yet, because the death counts have only recently started to jump in the last week (I understand the issues with attribution to CV, just not ready to call the approach absurd) and also because the death count lags the case count, and that is going up at a pretty good rate.

    • Replies: @Hail
    The graph you see above indicates deaths in the core countries of the EU, named in the graphic and on the reporting agency's website; digging a little more into their methodology, I see that reporting countries report deaths a median of about three days after death. Some 'straggler deaths' in some reporting countries for some reason can take up to 7 days to register (and in a few cases, not many but some cases in some countries, up to 10 days+). Notably for our purposes, though, Italy has a 100% reporting rate by Death+3Days.

    EuroMOMO does their best to correct for reporting delays and adjust their data on a rolling basis. It's a great dataset, really interesting to look at if you're like me.

    As best I can tell, this all implies that the "2020 Week 13" data you see there, the right-most slight movement of the lines, indicates deaths that occurred about March 19 to March 27, with some room for error especially in some countries' cases, but not Italy's (as they report their data promptly).

  92. @Mr. Anon
    I do know one thing. I will never pay any attention to Tucker Carlson again. He's been one of the chief flame-fanners in all this.

    I will never pay any attention to Tucker Carlson again. He’s been one of the chief flame-fanners in all this.

    Tucker understood Trump’s vulnerability by Trump taking a hands-off approach. That is why he went to see the President. Tucker is beating the drum for America getting back to work.

    Baby…, bathwater.

    • Replies: @Hail

    Tucker is beating the drum for America getting back to work.
     
    Is this true? When? If so, very good news.

    I agree with Mr. Anon and others' sentiment that Tucker faltered bad when he or those above him decided to publicly endorse CoronaPanic and fan the flames. What the heck, Tucker, why did you suspend his spirit of skeptical inquiry right now, of all times? That was not the Tucker Carlson we needed.

    This really is your people's hour of need. All those great monologues of the past matter for naught, if the maniacs succeed in plunging the US into a Great Depression of the 2020s and ruining lives for nothing. Tucker and his team should be on the ball on this, seeing a quasi-coup d'etat for what it is.

  93. Hail says: • Website
    @Charles Erwin Wilson Three

    I will never pay any attention to Tucker Carlson again. He’s been one of the chief flame-fanners in all this.
     
    Tucker understood Trump's vulnerability by Trump taking a hands-off approach. That is why he went to see the President. Tucker is beating the drum for America getting back to work.

    Baby..., bathwater.

    Tucker is beating the drum for America getting back to work.

    Is this true? When? If so, very good news.

    I agree with Mr. Anon and others’ sentiment that Tucker faltered bad when he or those above him decided to publicly endorse CoronaPanic and fan the flames. What the heck, Tucker, why did you suspend his spirit of skeptical inquiry right now, of all times? That was not the Tucker Carlson we needed.

    This really is your people’s hour of need. All those great monologues of the past matter for naught, if the maniacs succeed in plunging the US into a Great Depression of the 2020s and ruining lives for nothing. Tucker and his team should be on the ball on this, seeing a quasi-coup d’etat for what it is.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Note that Carlson originally supported the Iraq invasion and said that those who opposed Bush’s invasion were just like Osama bin Laden. He also supported a preemptive strike on Iran and said that Iran “deserved” to be “annihilated”. And he also said the US should wage war to seize oil. He has a jingoistic streak and pays attention to which way the wind is blowing.
  94. @Wilkey
    It will be interesting to see the changes that come out of this mess, good and bad. I suspect a lot of drug addicts will get a headstart on cleaning up due to their inability to get a fix. We could be seeing crowded maternity wards in nine months, thanks to couples locked up at home with nothing better to do. Almost certainly a drastic reduction in anchor babies/birth tourism, as international travel declines (remember that about half of our illegal immigrants are people who arrive legally but don’t leave).

    Alcoholism and obesity rates will be interesting to observe, whether higher or lower. More couples possibly divorcing, thanks to cabin fever, or perhaps more couples finding ways to get along better. Accelerated adoption of eBooks and eLearning. Definitely a a decline in deaths for a while, as the pandemic has accelerated the thinning of the herd. Hopefully a long term reduction in spread of other respiratory diseases, as people become more conscientious about hygiene. And of course we will probably see at least small changes in unemployment laws, public health programs, etc., for better and for worse.

    And of course one hopes, above all else, a serious reduction in global dependency on Chinese production. They can criticize Trump all they want, but he certainly has been getting that one right.

    It would be interesting to speculate on other changes that will follow. Any thoughts?

    We could be seeing crowded maternity wards in nine months, thanks to couples locked up at home with nothing better to do.

    Because there’s no such thing as contraceptives so every time people have sex it leads to babies. Because it’s still the 1950s and the contraceptive pill hasn’t been invented yet.

    And in a situation where the health system is entirely focused on COVID-19 (and where the health system might even collapse completely) and normal health care for things like pregnancy and childbirth might well become almost impossible to obtain lots of women will suddenly want to get pregnant.

    And in a situation in which many businesses are likely to close their doors forever and lots of jobs are likely to disappear forever lots of couples will think to themselves, “This would be a great time to start a family.”

    • Agree: Harry Baldwin
    • Replies: @The Alarmist

    And in a situation in which many businesses are likely to close their doors forever and lots of jobs are likely to disappear forever lots of couples will think to themselves, “This would be a great time to start a family.”
     
    When TPTB March the great unwashed masses into the fields in our “brave” brutish new world, children will once again be the extra pairs of hands that make the difference between life and death of a family ... a sort of social security safety net, one might say.
  95. Hail says: • Website
    @Gabe Ruth
    This strikes me as an important line of inquiry, but I'm not ready to call hoax quite yet, because the death counts have only recently started to jump in the last week (I understand the issues with attribution to CV, just not ready to call the approach absurd) and also because the death count lags the case count, and that is going up at a pretty good rate.

    The graph you see above indicates deaths in the core countries of the EU, named in the graphic and on the reporting agency’s website; digging a little more into their methodology, I see that reporting countries report deaths a median of about three days after death. Some ‘straggler deaths’ in some reporting countries for some reason can take up to 7 days to register (and in a few cases, not many but some cases in some countries, up to 10 days+). Notably for our purposes, though, Italy has a 100% reporting rate by Death+3Days.

    EuroMOMO does their best to correct for reporting delays and adjust their data on a rolling basis. It’s a great dataset, really interesting to look at if you’re like me.

    As best I can tell, this all implies that the “2020 Week 13” data you see there, the right-most slight movement of the lines, indicates deaths that occurred about March 19 to March 27, with some room for error especially in some countries’ cases, but not Italy’s (as they report their data promptly).

    • Replies: @Hail
    Even more useful is the country-by-country data. Here is the Week 13 data:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUpfxveXYAAYu9y.png

    Take a look at Italy and Spain.

    Italy has matched its 2017 flu peak and slightly exceeded its 2018 flu peak. Armageddon, not in sight.

    Spain is matching its 2017, 2018, and 2019 flu peaks. A similar-but-less-so story holds in Switzerland.

    France has barely moved. England has matched again its own mild early-2020 flu peak, but is way below its 2017 and 2018 flu peaks. Everyone else appears to be normal.

    Remember that "Shut It All Down, Ruining the Economy is Worth It" is based on the coronavirus of 2020 being a "once in a century mass killer," or something. Even in the most hard-hit spot, Italy, it has not even exceeded a seasonal flu peak within the last five years.
  96. Hail says: • Website
    @Hail
    The graph you see above indicates deaths in the core countries of the EU, named in the graphic and on the reporting agency's website; digging a little more into their methodology, I see that reporting countries report deaths a median of about three days after death. Some 'straggler deaths' in some reporting countries for some reason can take up to 7 days to register (and in a few cases, not many but some cases in some countries, up to 10 days+). Notably for our purposes, though, Italy has a 100% reporting rate by Death+3Days.

    EuroMOMO does their best to correct for reporting delays and adjust their data on a rolling basis. It's a great dataset, really interesting to look at if you're like me.

    As best I can tell, this all implies that the "2020 Week 13" data you see there, the right-most slight movement of the lines, indicates deaths that occurred about March 19 to March 27, with some room for error especially in some countries' cases, but not Italy's (as they report their data promptly).

    Even more useful is the country-by-country data. Here is the Week 13 data:

    Take a look at Italy and Spain.

    Italy has matched its 2017 flu peak and slightly exceeded its 2018 flu peak. Armageddon, not in sight.

    Spain is matching its 2017, 2018, and 2019 flu peaks. A similar-but-less-so story holds in Switzerland.

    France has barely moved. England has matched again its own mild early-2020 flu peak, but is way below its 2017 and 2018 flu peaks. Everyone else appears to be normal.

    Remember that “Shut It All Down, Ruining the Economy is Worth It” is based on the coronavirus of 2020 being a “once in a century mass killer,” or something. Even in the most hard-hit spot, Italy, it has not even exceeded a seasonal flu peak within the last five years.

  97. @Hail
    I unfortunately agree with you.

    Tucker Carlson's reputation is going to take a big hit on this, I am sad to say.

    Tucker Carlson had Alex Berenson on, I hope to see the segment somewhere on the internet.

  98. @dfordoom

    We could be seeing crowded maternity wards in nine months, thanks to couples locked up at home with nothing better to do.
     
    Because there's no such thing as contraceptives so every time people have sex it leads to babies. Because it's still the 1950s and the contraceptive pill hasn't been invented yet.

    And in a situation where the health system is entirely focused on COVID-19 (and where the health system might even collapse completely) and normal health care for things like pregnancy and childbirth might well become almost impossible to obtain lots of women will suddenly want to get pregnant.

    And in a situation in which many businesses are likely to close their doors forever and lots of jobs are likely to disappear forever lots of couples will think to themselves, "This would be a great time to start a family."

    And in a situation in which many businesses are likely to close their doors forever and lots of jobs are likely to disappear forever lots of couples will think to themselves, “This would be a great time to start a family.”

    When TPTB March the great unwashed masses into the fields in our “brave” brutish new world, children will once again be the extra pairs of hands that make the difference between life and death of a family … a sort of social security safety net, one might say.

  99. @Hail
    A follow-up with the Week 13 numbers, just released, taking us into late March:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/masks-inbound-and-outbound-protection/#comment-3811940


    There is no sudden skyrocketing of total mortality rates even among the most-at-risk-cohort, with this total-mortality data now available through March 28, which is well into the crisis [and] corroborates the skeptics’ view that has been argued for over the past three weeks.
     
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUm9JJRXsAIOQg9.png

    That’s such a good bit of evidence for the CTFD[1] hypothesis (the country-by-country one below is even better).

    Now I have to track down their data sources and grab everything required to do the same thing – this will be a key part of the “CTFD” tab if I ever get this fucking SEIR GUI finished.

    <sarc>

    If you squint and the light catches the charts ‘just so’, it’s almost as if there’s a pattern there… something that happens about the same time every year, give or take a week.

    Seems almost to have something to do with the seasons.

    A seasonal pattern, if you will.

    I bet nobody in the history of statistics has ever heard of a seasonal pattern.

    I’ll go you halvsies on the patent fee and we will be rich.

    </sarc>

    (The sarc wasn’t aimed at you – I’ve just had a lot of coffee today).

    Also, as far as the probabilities are concerned, the z-score bands look like they’re based on σ for the fitted GLM, not σ for the underlying data.

    4σ bands should contain 99.994% of all observations, and the expected interval between 4σ events is once in 15,787 observations: with weekly data that’s once every 302½ years. The bands ought to be wider, is what I’m getting at lol.

    [1] CTFD: Calm The Fuck Down.

  100. @Mr. Anon
    German physician and microbiologist Sucharit Bhakdi on Coronavirus:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsExPrHCHbw

    German [] Sucharit Bhakdi.

    Nothing against the dude – maybe he fully embraces German culture (i.e., beer, sauerkraut, leather shorts and successfully invading France).

    But ‘German‘?

    Krautische-Wikipedia (Vikipedia) says NEIN!!!

    Sucharit Bhakdi (* 1. November 1946 in Washington, D.C.) ist ein thailändischer Mediziner und Facharzt für Mikrobiologie und Infektionsepidemiologie

    KEIN SAUERKRAUT FÜR IHNEN, Herr Professor Doktor.

    KEK

    • Replies: @gfhändel
    FÜR SIE.
    , @glib
    Obviously, I will take a Thai with integrity anytime rather than Fauci, or anyone at the WHO. And Wodarg is as kraut as they come. This is a time for people like Bhakdi to step out of the shadows, and he did.
  101. Anonymous[307] • Disclaimer says:
    @Hail

    Tucker is beating the drum for America getting back to work.
     
    Is this true? When? If so, very good news.

    I agree with Mr. Anon and others' sentiment that Tucker faltered bad when he or those above him decided to publicly endorse CoronaPanic and fan the flames. What the heck, Tucker, why did you suspend his spirit of skeptical inquiry right now, of all times? That was not the Tucker Carlson we needed.

    This really is your people's hour of need. All those great monologues of the past matter for naught, if the maniacs succeed in plunging the US into a Great Depression of the 2020s and ruining lives for nothing. Tucker and his team should be on the ball on this, seeing a quasi-coup d'etat for what it is.

    Note that Carlson originally supported the Iraq invasion and said that those who opposed Bush’s invasion were just like Osama bin Laden. He also supported a preemptive strike on Iran and said that Iran “deserved” to be “annihilated”. And he also said the US should wage war to seize oil. He has a jingoistic streak and pays attention to which way the wind is blowing.

  102. @Kratoklastes
    German [] Sucharit Bhakdi.

    Nothing against the dude - maybe he fully embraces German culture (i.e., beer, sauerkraut, leather shorts and successfully invading France).

    But 'German'?

    Krautische-Wikipedia (Vikipedia) says NEIN!!!...

    Sucharit Bhakdi (* 1. November 1946 in Washington, D.C.) ist ein thailändischer Mediziner und Facharzt für Mikrobiologie und Infektionsepidemiologie
     
    KEIN SAUERKRAUT FÜR IHNEN, Herr Professor Doktor.

    KEK

    FÜR SIE.

  103. @Kratoklastes
    German [] Sucharit Bhakdi.

    Nothing against the dude - maybe he fully embraces German culture (i.e., beer, sauerkraut, leather shorts and successfully invading France).

    But 'German'?

    Krautische-Wikipedia (Vikipedia) says NEIN!!!...

    Sucharit Bhakdi (* 1. November 1946 in Washington, D.C.) ist ein thailändischer Mediziner und Facharzt für Mikrobiologie und Infektionsepidemiologie
     
    KEIN SAUERKRAUT FÜR IHNEN, Herr Professor Doktor.

    KEK

    Obviously, I will take a Thai with integrity anytime rather than Fauci, or anyone at the WHO. And Wodarg is as kraut as they come. This is a time for people like Bhakdi to step out of the shadows, and he did.

    • Replies: @Twodees Partain
    BTW, there's a book comparing Fauci with Bernie Madoff in reference to the fraud he has promoted in the past:
    https://www.amazon.com/Fauci-Science-Concealed-Syndrome-Epidemic/dp/B086C33Y64/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=fauci+ponzi&qid=1586137199&sr=8-1

    It's funny, but lots of Fauci-is-my-hero souvenir crap is also being sold on Amazon, while this book is listed there.
  104. @glib
    Obviously, I will take a Thai with integrity anytime rather than Fauci, or anyone at the WHO. And Wodarg is as kraut as they come. This is a time for people like Bhakdi to step out of the shadows, and he did.

    BTW, there’s a book comparing Fauci with Bernie Madoff in reference to the fraud he has promoted in the past:

    It’s funny, but lots of Fauci-is-my-hero souvenir crap is also being sold on Amazon, while this book is listed there.

Comments are closed.

Subscribe to All Steve Sailer Comments via RSS
PastClassics
The unspoken statistical reality of urban crime over the last quarter century.
Which superpower is more threatened by its “extractive elites”?
How a Young Syndicate Lawyer from Chicago Earned a Fortune Looting the Property of the Japanese-Americans, then Lived...
Becker update V1.3.2