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Final Moderna Vaccine Results: 30 Out of 30 for Severe COVID Cases. But Will Blacks Trust the White(/Asian) Man's Vaccine?
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From Moderna’s new press release:

Moderna Announces Primary Efficacy Analysis in Phase 3 COVE Study for Its COVID-19

Vaccine Candidate and Filing Today with U.S. FDA for Emergency Use Authorization
November 30, 2020 at 6:59 AM EST

Primary efficacy analysis of the Phase 3 COVE study of mRNA-1273 involving 30,000 participants included 196 cases of COVID-19, of which 30 cases were severe

Vaccine efficacy against COVID-19 was 94.1%; vaccine efficacy against severe COVID-19 was 100% …

Moderna plans today to request EUA from the U.S. FDA, to apply for a conditional marketing authorization with the European Medicines Agency (EMA) and to progress with the rolling reviews, which have already been initiated with international regulatory agencies

FDA has told Company to expect VRBPAC meeting for mRNA-1273 likely on December 17, 2020 …

The primary endpoint of the Phase 3 COVE study is based on the analysis of COVID-19 cases confirmed and adjudicated starting two weeks following the second dose of vaccine. Vaccine efficacy has been demonstrated at the first interim analysis with a total of 95 cases based on the pre-specified success criterion on efficacy. Today’s primary analysis was based on 196 cases, of which 185 cases of COVID-19 were observed in the placebo group versus 11 cases observed in the mRNA-1273 group, resulting in a point estimate of vaccine efficacy of 94.1%. A secondary endpoint analyzed severe cases of COVID-19 and included 30 severe cases (as defined in the study protocol) in this analysis. All 30 cases occurred in the placebo group and none in the mRNA-1273 vaccinated group. There was one COVID-19-related death in the study to date, which occurred in the placebo group

So, out of about 15,000 people in the placebo group, 185 were infected and symptomatic (I believe Moderna and Pfizer haven’t been looking for asymptomatic cases while Astra-Zeneca has) over a few months, with 30 getting severe cases of COVID and one dying. It looks like case counts were slow to accumulate during the late summer/early fall lull between the second wave that hit the US sunbelt in July and the current third wave that started in the north central states with the coming of cold weather. But then the number of cases apparently doubled over the last few weeks as this third wave is now hitting hard.

In contrast, 11 in the vaccine arm came down with non-severe cases of symptomatic COVID.

A big unanswered question is whether these vaccines protect not only the recipients from severe symptoms, which they apparently do, quite well, but also protect the unvaccinated from being infected by vaccine recipients with no or only mild symptoms. If only the former, COVID would become Just The Flu, Bro for only the vaccinated, while it would continue to spread from the vaccinated to the unvaccinated. But, hopefully, if the vaccine also reduces infectiousness as well as severity, it can take a bite out of the pandemic’s spread fairly quickly.

Efficacy was consistent across age, race and ethnicity, and gender demographics. The 196 COVID-19 cases included 33 older adults (ages 65+) and 42 participants identifying as being from diverse communities (including 29 Hispanic or LatinX, 6 Black or African Americans, 4 Asian Americans and 3 multiracial participants).

I wish they would report how many of the 33 cases in 65+ volunteers were in the two arms. But, still, the worst case scenario of 11 in vaccine arm, 22 in the placebo arm is still pretty good.

My assumption is that they didn’t recruit volunteers who were both elderly and severely debilitated, the kind most likely to die in nursing homes. But it’s good news that it works at all in 65+.

The safety profile of the Phase 3 study of mRNA-1273 was previously described on November 16. A continuous review of safety data is ongoing and no new serious safety concerns have been identified by the Company. Based on prior analysis, the most common solicited adverse reactions included injection site pain, fatigue, myalgia, arthralgia, headache, and erythema/redness at the injection site. Solicited adverse reactions increased in frequency and severity in the mRNA-1273 group after the second dose.

Once again, some percentages would be useful.

The Company will submit data from the Phase 3 COVE study to a peer-reviewed publication.

… Additionally, Moderna announced that the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) meeting to review the safety and efficacy data package for mRNA-1273 will likely be scheduled for Thursday, December 17. The Company expects that the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) will make a recommendation on immunization priorities. The Company anticipates that the shipping of mRNA-1273 to designated distribution points throughout the U.S. will occur shortly after an Emergency Use Authorization is granted.

Moderna is working with the U.S. CDC, Operation Warp Speed and McKesson (NYSE: MCK), a COVID-19 vaccine distributor contracted by the U.S. government, as well as global stakeholders to be prepared for distribution of mRNA-1273, in the event that it receives an EUA and similar global authorizations and approvals. By the end of 2020, the Company expects to have approximately 20 million doses of mRNA-1273 available in the U.S.

So, 20 million doses at 2 doses each equals 10 million innoculees. Pfizer could supply an equivalent amount or more. Pfizer, which is a week ahead, is beginning to practice flying dry ice containers around the country to work the bugs out of distribution.

Keep in mind that this is a 2-shot regimen, so it is assumed it takes about a month for the vaccine to have full effect.

A big question is whether, following the Democrats’ and Prestige Media’s months of declaring that white people are out to get blacks, and the Democratic candidates’ anti-vaxx dogwhistling against Trump’s emphasis on rapid vaccine development, whether enough blacks will allow themselves to be vaccinated. From a late summer Kaiser survey:

 
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  1. If Moderna had been allowed to design, produce and sell a vaccine without testing the vaccine, how many people would have died from the vaccine versus how many would have people would have died from the disease given eight months of production at 20 million doses of the vaccine?

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Goatweed

    In retrospect it would have been better, but if you put all your money into Lotto tickets and you win, that was a great investment in hindsight also. What if they gave it to 20 million people and then they found out that people who take the vaccine suffer severe side effects a month or two after they get the shot? By then it's too late to take it back. This is why we have drug trials.

    Replies: @unit472, @lysias

    , @Johann Ricke
    @Goatweed


    If Moderna had been allowed to design, produce and sell a vaccine without testing the vaccine, how many people would have died from the vaccine versus how many would have people would have died from the disease given eight months of production at 20 million doses of the vaccine?
     
    This falls into the category of "it would be great if I could invest only in things that worked out in the end". The power of foresight is something that even farmers don't have for the profitability of next year's wheat crop - something that's been grown for thousands of years - never mind the efficacy and safety of a vaccine for a bug variant that may have not existed prior to 2019.
    , @AnotherDad
    @Goatweed


    If Moderna had been allowed to design, produce and sell a vaccine without testing the vaccine, how many people would have died from the vaccine versus how many would have people would have died from the disease given eight months of production at 20 million doses of the vaccine?
     
    There's a contradiction at the heart of Xi virus hysteria:

    If this really is the killer plague of the millennium, you really ought to be kicking aside tedious bureaucracy and regulations and yes incurring some *risk* to get the vaccine out and halt this killer ASAP. (Centuries ago in various places people would actually get "vaccinated" with the less lethal form of smallpox variola-minor which still had a 1% chance of killing you!)

    But they have no interest in doing the risky things you'd do if this was actually deadly.

    Cause ... that's not what this hysteria is about. It's about
    -- our increasingly feminized risk aversion
    -- political control--enabling Big Sister--and expertism
    -- whacking small business, the independent and self-reliant ... people who vote wrong
    -- and most of all ... getting Trump

    When you actually look at the plague ... it's not real impressive.

    It was looking impressive briefly last spring while Cuomo was slaughtering the frail in New York's nursing homes under the rubric of "fighting discrimination"--a performance which wins him the Democrats plaudits and awards.

    But since then it's been an unimpressive cull of the "dry tinder" who were destined to go this year or in the next few. Beyond that it's a blip. They'll be lucky to peg even 10% excess deaths.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

    Replies: @utu, @Mr. Anon, @Hypnotoad666, @Captain Tripps, @Redman

    , @Yancey Ward
    @Goatweed

    The really important delay was in not doing challenge trials with any of the vaccines. They had enough safety data 4 months ago to proceed with voluntary vaccinations by late August. The reason no challenge trials were done had nothing to do with ethical considerations- the trials were lengthened so that no vaccine would be available until after November 3rd. These people literally have blood on their hands to get Biden elected.

    Replies: @Steve Richter

    , @Colin Wright
    @Goatweed

    'If Moderna had been allowed to design, produce and sell a vaccine without testing the vaccine, how many people would have died from the vaccine versus how many would have people would have died from the disease given eight months of production at 20 million doses of the vaccine?'

    That's bit like saying 'if I had been given a copy of today's Wall Street Journal eight months ago, how much money could I have made?'

    Of course, now that we know it bloody works and won't cause you to have a seizure...

  2. Outstanding. The sacrifices over 2020 to my standard of living have been significant, but with these encouraging developments it looks like the local 2021 triathlon season will be a go – and I can’t wait for the races to begin to get dressed up in my racer outfit and play jock! It is time now for all of us to transition from cautious to exuberant optimism.

    • Replies: @Anon
    @John Achterhof


    I can’t wait for the races to begin to get dressed up in my racer outfit
     
    You'd look good in Lycra shorts. Super Sexy. Can I private message you, Mr hot stuff?

    Replies: @John Achterhof

    , @peterike
    @John Achterhof


    the local 2021 triathlon season
     
    Participation in endurance sports is a sign of psychological imbalance.

    Replies: @Old Prude

    , @Buffalo Joe
    @John Achterhof

    John, meanwhile in California, San Mateo County has banned travel of over 150 miles. If you chose to travel that far then you MUST quarantine for 10 days. I wonder, how do you enforce this, why 150 miles and why 10 days? Good luck with your training. Probably will have to mask up for the actual event.

    Replies: @John Achterhof

  3. Another big question, in my humble opinion, is what are the potential negative effects of a rushed vaccine? It raises interesting questions, such as: whites tend to be more willing to follow the established laws than black people, but is there a negative flipside to that, such as a greater willingness to obey in situations where they should be skeptical ?

    • Replies: @Polynikes
    @JimDandy

    That is a fair question and the reason I, in the non risk group, will not be getting one. The national vaccine compensation fund was started after the failed 1976 swine flu vaccine. There are still unresolved legal claims from the 09 H1N1 vaccine. Both rushed out like this one.

    That isn’t to say that the vaccine isn’t worth it, especially for higher risk groups. But I see zero reason healthy children or even adults up to the age of ~55 should be rushing into this thing.

    Replies: @JimDandy, @epebble, @Nico

  4. Steve:

    What is the basis for your claim that Covid is worse than the flu (or a bad flu)?

    • Agree: botazefa
    • Replies: @Old Prude
    @Anonymous

    Cootie 19 has killed a lot more small businesses than the flu. So there.

    It has also, from my observation killed more small buisnesses than people. It has also caused Mrs Prude to drink and eat and argue to excess. The flu never did that...

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe

    , @Polynikes
    @Anonymous

    According to the most recent CDC estimate of total infections, the Infection Fatality Rate would come in somewhere between .2-.3. An average flu year has an IFR of about .1, with a bad flu year (2018, most recently) being about .1-.3. So this is a little worse than a bad flu year, or about a once in a generation flu year.

    That’s also using the current ~200,000+ death toll which almost certainly contains a fair amount of “with” covid deaths along with the “from” covid deaths.

  5. Anonymous[383] • Disclaimer says:

    Blacks might as well trust the “white man’s vaccine”, because I’m quite certain, that there will not be, a “black man’s vaccine .” Is this really where we are now? If people are only going to use things invented by their own race, there’s going to be a lot of desperate people running around with nothing.

    • Replies: @Lockean Proviso
    @Anonymous

    Maybe the legacy media can find a black lab worker at one of the vaccine makers and promote the idea that they are the actual creator of the vaccine, it having been stolen from them by white scientists. Netflix could make a movie about it, "Black Antibodies.". Whatever it takes to reassure blacks that the vaccine is actually theirs so that they will take it when they're placed at the front of the line.

    Replies: @Anon, @Alan Mercer

    , @Hannah Katz
    @Anonymous

    I suppose they could wait for a vaccine that will be developed in Zimbabwe or Zambia or maybe even by the scholars in Haiti. Let them choose.

    To give them some confidence, or something, here is an article about the Ugandan space program.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2069222/Not-exactly-NASA-Ugandan-space-chief-builds-test-craft-mothers-yard-says-shuttle-orbit-2015.html

    , @Nicholas Stix
    @Anonymous

    They trust the White man's money, the White man's cell phones, the White man's computers, etc. It's a combination of black supremacist paranoia and posturing.

    Besides, who cares if they want to take the vax?! Whatever they do, they'll find a way to blame the White devils for something. And many will publicly claim they won't get the vax, but will privately.

  6. From Military.com:

    Surgeon General Cites Horrific Tuskegee Experiment, Voices Vaccine Distribution Concerns

    U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams is warning that some American populations may be reluctant to take a COVID-19 vaccine because of the nation’s dark history of racial discrimination.

    On an Oct. 23 conference call, he cited the infamous Tuskegee Institute syphilis experiments from 1932-1972, in which hundreds of African-American sharecroppers with the disease were studied and deceptively given ineffective treatments instead of penicillin

    For those who don’t know, Dr. Adams is black. So that’s it then.

    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666
    @Anon7


    On an Oct. 23 conference call, he cited the infamous Tuskegee Institute syphilis experiments from 1932-1972 . . .
     
    The problem with Tuskegee is that they didn't give the white man's new magic shot to the blacks. You'd think the lesson learned would be to get to the front of the line this time.

    But then again, 99% of blacks and probably 80% of whites think the Tuskegee experiments involved intentionally injecting blacks with a disease.

    Replies: @Jack Armstrong

  7. If people are too stupid to take the vaccine and they die as a result, this will be a tragedy for their family, but can only improve the national gene pool.

    • Replies: @Anon
    @Anon

    How many people is COVID killing who would have gone on to have children later if they'd lived? Probably not many.

    Replies: @Bard of Bumperstickers

    , @Bard of Bumperstickers
    @Anon

    People stupid enough to take this intravenous mass-assassination will improve the gene pool. FIFY

    Replies: @Anon

  8. @Goatweed
    If Moderna had been allowed to design, produce and sell a vaccine without testing the vaccine, how many people would have died from the vaccine versus how many would have people would have died from the disease given eight months of production at 20 million doses of the vaccine?

    Replies: @Jack D, @Johann Ricke, @AnotherDad, @Yancey Ward, @Colin Wright

    In retrospect it would have been better, but if you put all your money into Lotto tickets and you win, that was a great investment in hindsight also. What if they gave it to 20 million people and then they found out that people who take the vaccine suffer severe side effects a month or two after they get the shot? By then it’s too late to take it back. This is why we have drug trials.

    • Agree: ic1000
    • Replies: @unit472
    @Jack D

    When you go from giving any medicine from a trial involving a few tens of thousands to tens of millions expect the unexpected. The NSAID Viox seemed safe in clinical trials and was approved but when it became widely prescribed it was quickly pulled from the market as it was killing people. Lots of people. Then there was Thalidomide, whose gruesome effects on pregnant women and their babies only was discovered after it became widely available in Europe.

    Replies: @gcochran, @Jack D

    , @lysias
    @Jack D

    We still don't know what the effects will be just one year after taking the shot.

    Replies: @Jack D

  9. Good twist for pushing pro-vaccine propaganda to Unz readership.
    Anybody promoting these vaccines should be required to receive them.
    Guinea pig much?

    • Agree: republic
    • Replies: @Kaz
    @SparkyLyle92

    Docs/nurses are getting the vaccines first.Us pro-vaxxers couldn't get the vaccine early even if we wanted..

    , @AnotherDad
    @SparkyLyle92

    There's nothing crazy about these vaccines.

    Yes, they make your ribosomes produce the spike protein. The virus makes them do that as well ... along with the rest of the virus!

    Yes, the vaccines were just cooked up in some lab in the US or Germany or the UK or Russia this year The virus was cooked up in a lab in China last year.

    I'm recommending the jab, and will get one myself.

    However, if you go in and the technician looks up your name, then skips the vials on her desk and goes to freezer and pulls out a red vial that has "Unz" written on it ... get outta there quick!

  10. So, once this vaccine is administered, there would be immunity until the next mutation occurs.

    Would that be correct to say?

    • Replies: @gcochran
    @JohnnyWalker123

    The next mutation that materially changes the factors recognized by the immune system - most mutations don't do that.

    Replies: @U. Ranus, @tyrone

    , @That Would Be Telling
    @JohnnyWalker123


    So, once this vaccine is administered, there would be immunity until the next mutation occurs.

    Would that be correct to say?
     
    Define "mutation." If you mean a new novel coronavirus, call is COVID-21 or -22 if cooked up by the PRC/CCP as a real bioweapon coupled with a mass inoculation campaign for COVID-19 that just happens to cover COVID-22, yep, we'll need a new one, including new Phase III tests. A campaign officially for COVID-19 is essential, since a developed enough country doing a mass vaccination campaign out of the blue is a clear sign they're preparing to set loose an infectious bioweapon. On the other hand, the CCP would be really insane to try to do this, given how bad their researchers are at keeping the bugs in their labs (COVID-19, if it's from a lab, is just one of many such incidents, civilian and military).

    If you mean SARS-CoV-2 mutating into something that isn't stopped by these vaccines, we can't say. In our favor, coronaviruses have a proofreading mechanism unique to RNA viruses. And we have plenty of "eternal" vaccines for RNA viruses, because the body latches onto something "conserved," it can't change much or "the virus won't virus." We're hoping the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein is just such a conserved thing (or rather, whatever parts of it the immune system latches onto).

    Not in our favor is that with a lot of the virus circulating, if it comes under selection pressure due to herd immunity beginning to develop due to vaccines, it just might happen, and get propagated, that is, become a dominate strain. This all is an ecological thing ... and it's curiously already pretty well adapted to humans, compared to many standard zoonotic jumps which are more lethal and less transmissible (the words of art you want here are "gain of function" experiments...).

    Replies: @Hypnotoad666

    , @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia
    @JohnnyWalker123

    For a vaccine to work well, it has to do two things.

    First, the antibodies it generates has to target accessible protein formations on the virus. The antibody has to bind/lock onto a physical feature of the virus terrain. As a coronavirus, the Wuhan has very spiky spikes, so there's room for the antibodies to slide in and get ahold of the virus at the spike (sounds faintly pornographic, no?).

    Second, the antibodies should target a "conserved" protein on the virus spike -- that is, a protein confirmation that will remain constant, or constant enough, thorough multiple generations.

    All the vaccines under development do both those things. It's not only likely that these vaccines will work against Corona-chan, but also against other variations of corona viruses.

  11. I knew a guy who had been a recipient of one of the early antibiotics. He said it had saved his life.

    The medicine had not been “approved” (it pre-dated FDA/bureaucratic regulations), but since the guy had exhausted all his other medical options, he figured that he had nothing to lose by becoming a guinea pig.

  12. First, it would be right decent of them to release the actual study instead of only the press release. It would also be nice if data was presented in a table.

    “30,000 participants included 196 cases of COVID-19, of which 30 cases were severe” one death

    From the cdc: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/flu.htm
    1 death in 15000 or 6.7 per 100,000 would be similar to past Influenza and pneumonia deaths of 18 per 100,000. Is that a lot?

    Mortality
    Influenza and pneumonia deaths

    Number of deaths: 59,120
    Deaths per 100,000 population: 18.1
    Cause of death rank: 8
    Source: National Vital Statistics System – Mortality Data (2018) via CDC WONDER

    Influenza

    Number of deaths: 11,164
    Deaths per 100,000 population: 3.4

    • Replies: @epebble
    @George

    I have some questions on the design of tests too:

    1. Covid-19 is killing about 1,000 per day in a population of 330 million in U.S.

    2. = 1 per day per 330,000 population

    3. In 60 days, that will be 60 deaths.

    4. For a Placebo group of 15,000, over 60 days, that should be about 3 deaths

    5. But they saw only one death.

    6. Hence, they undersampled risk by about 66%

    It would have been better, if they had sampled risk group better (i.e. get 3 deaths in placebo group) and even better if test sample was 100,000 instead of 30,000 so as to get 10 deaths in (well sampled) placebo group. Then, they could have pointed out, look, our vaccine saves lives, by a factor of 90% (assuming only one person max in vaccinated group dies).

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  13. it would have been better, but if you put all your money into Lotto tickets and you win

    Epstein seems to have done something like that.

    Hidden Epstein Records Indicate He ‘Won’ an $41 Million Oklahoma Lottery Jackpot Payout

    On July 2, 2008 — just one day after convicted sex offender Jeffery Epstein started to serve an 18-month jail term in Florida as Inmate No. W35755 — his New Mexico “financial planning company,” called Zorro Trust, won the Oklahoma Power Lottery payout of $41.3 million and ultimately collected nearly $30 million in after tax winnings.

    Jeffrey Epstein’s, “New Mexico” spread in his black book identifies a column as Epstein, Jeffrey, Zorro Ranch, with a phone listing for Brice & Karen. The very same Brice M. Gordon, who is a manager of Zorro Trust.

    Only in cartoon world would it be believable that a so-called “sophisticated investor” who typically is looking to scalp every arbitrage and every basis point instead tosses money at awful-odds lotteries. This stinks to high heaven.

    This heist was facilitated by “computer glitch”” the day of the public drawing on July 2, 2008.

    TLDR Summary:

    -Jeffrey Epstein won $41 million in the 2008 Oklahoma lotto.
    -Lotto is a good way to get rich.
    -Invest all your money in buying Lotto tickets and you, too, could get really “lucky.”
    -A computer “glitch” might spontaneously happen in your favor.

    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666
    @JohnnyWalker123

    And election fraud is not possible.

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123

    , @kaganovitch
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Jeffrey Epstein won $41 million in the 2008 Oklahoma lotto.

    The money turned out to be a mixed blessing. I don't know if you're aware, but sadly he ended up killing himself.

    Replies: @anon, @JohnnyWalker123

    , @Old Prude
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Running Powerball would be (is?) a great way for covert ops (Mossad?) to get ready money...

    Replies: @Muggles

  14. vaccine efficacy against severe COVID-19 was 100% …

    The value of preventing “severe COVID-19,” depends largely on how they define that term in the protocol. In particular: (a) are the “severe” symptoms really health endangering; and (b) what are the odds these “severe” symptoms were actually caused by the corona virus and not something else.

    If the severity level level of (a) is pretty trivial, and/or the causal relationship of (b) is weak or non-existent, then the 94% prevention rate is not a big deal, because the study would show that covid rarely or never results in severe health problems, anyway.

    OTOH, if they prove both health damage and causation from covid, then they are on to something useful. But even in that case, preventing 30 “severe” cases out of 15,000 placebo participants (.2%), hardly seems like the health outcome bonanza of the century.

    All doubts could be answered if only they would release their effing raw data. But, like all the other big pharma vaccine companies, it seems they prefer to just issue press releases.

    • Replies: @BenKenobi
    @Hypnotoad666

    I'm at 100% effectiveness already by going on with my life.

  15. @JohnnyWalker123

    it would have been better, but if you put all your money into Lotto tickets and you win
     
    Epstein seems to have done something like that.

    Hidden Epstein Records Indicate He ‘Won’ an $41 Million Oklahoma Lottery Jackpot Payout
     
    https://www.winterwatch.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Epstein-the-lotto-winner.jpg

    On July 2, 2008 — just one day after convicted sex offender Jeffery Epstein started to serve an 18-month jail term in Florida as Inmate No. W35755 — his New Mexico “financial planning company,” called Zorro Trust, won the Oklahoma Power Lottery payout of $41.3 million and ultimately collected nearly $30 million in after tax winnings.

    Jeffrey Epstein’s, “New Mexico” spread in his black book identifies a column as Epstein, Jeffrey, Zorro Ranch, with a phone listing for Brice & Karen. The very same Brice M. Gordon, who is a manager of Zorro Trust.
     
    https://www.winterwatch.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/rhdu7hwoxjf31-600x267.png

    Only in cartoon world would it be believable that a so-called “sophisticated investor” who typically is looking to scalp every arbitrage and every basis point instead tosses money at awful-odds lotteries. This stinks to high heaven.

    This heist was facilitated by “computer glitch”” the day of the public drawing on July 2, 2008.
     
    https://www.winterwatch.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Capture-22-600x323.png

    TLDR Summary:

    -Jeffrey Epstein won $41 million in the 2008 Oklahoma lotto.
    -Lotto is a good way to get rich.
    -Invest all your money in buying Lotto tickets and you, too, could get really "lucky."
    -A computer "glitch" might spontaneously happen in your favor.

    Replies: @Hypnotoad666, @kaganovitch, @Old Prude

    And election fraud is not possible.

    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
    @Hypnotoad666

    Except when done by Russian hackers.

  16. @Goatweed
    If Moderna had been allowed to design, produce and sell a vaccine without testing the vaccine, how many people would have died from the vaccine versus how many would have people would have died from the disease given eight months of production at 20 million doses of the vaccine?

    Replies: @Jack D, @Johann Ricke, @AnotherDad, @Yancey Ward, @Colin Wright

    If Moderna had been allowed to design, produce and sell a vaccine without testing the vaccine, how many people would have died from the vaccine versus how many would have people would have died from the disease given eight months of production at 20 million doses of the vaccine?

    This falls into the category of “it would be great if I could invest only in things that worked out in the end”. The power of foresight is something that even farmers don’t have for the profitability of next year’s wheat crop – something that’s been grown for thousands of years – never mind the efficacy and safety of a vaccine for a bug variant that may have not existed prior to 2019.

    • Agree: Twinkie
  17. That survey will have to be memoryholed, doesn’t fit the narrative. That said, I am a white that probably does fit the narrative, somewhat – I don’t have a lot of confidence in vaccines that were rushed like this, particularly because many of them are based on the relatively new mRNA tech.

    A poll on the attitudes of the readers on this blog would be interesting. My views:
    I am encouraging my parents to get it as soon as it becomes available to them. They are older, and both have a few comorbidities that could make catching COVID-19 lethal.
    I would probably get it for myself and my wife without making too much of a fuss if it becomes a requirement for work/travel (and I will do a lot more research on it if this becomes reality), but I will probably not get it otherwise.
    I will fight to the death to stop them from giving it to my kids. That, to me, is absolutely insane. Covid seems to pose almost no risk to people under 18, and there isn’t even any good evidence that kids are big source of the spread to people who are at risk. And just for the record, I gave my kids all of the normal vaccines on the normal schedule. I am not against vaccines for kids in general, just this one in particular.

    • Agree: The King is a Fink
    • Thanks: JimDandy
  18. @Hypnotoad666

    vaccine efficacy against severe COVID-19 was 100% …
     
    The value of preventing "severe COVID-19," depends largely on how they define that term in the protocol. In particular: (a) are the "severe" symptoms really health endangering; and (b) what are the odds these "severe" symptoms were actually caused by the corona virus and not something else.

    If the severity level level of (a) is pretty trivial, and/or the causal relationship of (b) is weak or non-existent, then the 94% prevention rate is not a big deal, because the study would show that covid rarely or never results in severe health problems, anyway.

    OTOH, if they prove both health damage and causation from covid, then they are on to something useful. But even in that case, preventing 30 "severe" cases out of 15,000 placebo participants (.2%), hardly seems like the health outcome bonanza of the century.

    All doubts could be answered if only they would release their effing raw data. But, like all the other big pharma vaccine companies, it seems they prefer to just issue press releases.

    Replies: @BenKenobi

    I’m at 100% effectiveness already by going on with my life.

  19. How about the Feds put a billion dollars on the table for the first black scientist who develops a vaccine for blacks. Call it part of the reparations. And I meant a vaccine for Covid, not a vaccine to prevent blacks.

    • LOL: William Badwhite
    • Replies: @Alan Mercer
    @Buffalo Joe

    For such a cash prize they would find a black lab tech and retcon. Her media handlers would get a piece. As Lockean Proviso suggests elsewhere in these comments, they may do it for free. Demoralization of the actual scientists and their ilk is its own reward.

  20. @Goatweed
    If Moderna had been allowed to design, produce and sell a vaccine without testing the vaccine, how many people would have died from the vaccine versus how many would have people would have died from the disease given eight months of production at 20 million doses of the vaccine?

    Replies: @Jack D, @Johann Ricke, @AnotherDad, @Yancey Ward, @Colin Wright

    If Moderna had been allowed to design, produce and sell a vaccine without testing the vaccine, how many people would have died from the vaccine versus how many would have people would have died from the disease given eight months of production at 20 million doses of the vaccine?

    There’s a contradiction at the heart of Xi virus hysteria:

    If this really is the killer plague of the millennium, you really ought to be kicking aside tedious bureaucracy and regulations and yes incurring some *risk* to get the vaccine out and halt this killer ASAP. (Centuries ago in various places people would actually get “vaccinated” with the less lethal form of smallpox variola-minor which still had a 1% chance of killing you!)

    But they have no interest in doing the risky things you’d do if this was actually deadly.

    Cause … that’s not what this hysteria is about. It’s about
    — our increasingly feminized risk aversion
    — political control–enabling Big Sister–and expertism
    — whacking small business, the independent and self-reliant … people who vote wrong
    — and most of all … getting Trump

    When you actually look at the plague … it’s not real impressive.

    It was looking impressive briefly last spring while Cuomo was slaughtering the frail in New York’s nursing homes under the rubric of “fighting discrimination”–a performance which wins him the Democrats plaudits and awards.

    But since then it’s been an unimpressive cull of the “dry tinder” who were destined to go this year or in the next few. Beyond that it’s a blip. They’ll be lucky to peg even 10% excess deaths.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

    • Replies: @utu
    @AnotherDad


    If this really is the killer plague of the millennium, you really ought to be kicking aside tedious bureaucracy and regulations and yes incurring some *risk* to get the vaccine out and halt this killer ASAP.
     
    You create fallacious arguments just to satisfy your bias. Actually you do not make arguments, you engage in rhetorical demagoguery for masturbatory purpose that you can resist to share with others because of your apparent exhibitionist tendency: Let me show how I jerk off and make a fool of myself.

    In the sentence the premise 'the killer plague of the millennium' needs to be defied and quantified and in the the conclusion part the 'risk' needs to be quantified. Risks can be high and past experiences teach us to be very careful:


    The Cutter Incident: How America's First Polio Vaccine Led to a Growing Vaccine Crisis
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1383764/

    In April 1955 more than 200 000 children in five Western and mid-Western USA states received a polio vaccine in which the process of inactivating the live virus proved to be defective. Within days there were reports of paralysis and within a month the first mass vaccination programme against polio had to be abandoned. Subsequent investigations revealed that the vaccine, manufactured by the California-based family firm of Cutter Laboratories, had caused 40 000 cases of polio, leaving 200 children with varying degrees of paralysis and killing 10.
     

    , @Mr. Anon
    @AnotherDad

    Tsk-tsk, you have angered Utu, our resident COVID-hysteric. Why, he'll get spittle all over the mask he probably wears while sitting alone in his den in front of his computer.

    Replies: @William Badwhite

    , @Hypnotoad666
    @AnotherDad


    But they have no interest in doing the risky things you’d do if this was actually deadly.
     
    "They" know the score. When the cameras are off and no proles are around, they take off their masks, gather in close groups, and laugh at you.

    Like Newsome at French Laundry. If he believed he was risking the lives of his wife, his health lobyist friends, and himself, by having a maskless indoor dinner party, he would have jumped from the table and run out. But he and his fancy friends know better and aren't the least bit scared.

    Same with Cuomo having Thanksgiving dinner with his girlfriend and 89 year-old mother. Take note of what they do, not what they say
    , @Captain Tripps
    @AnotherDad

    I know its only one data point, but it demonstrates how much noise is in the data collection in this strange year: wife friend of my in-laws got very sick in late October/early November; family pleaded with her to go to the hospital, but she refused; too afraid of catching COVID. She died two weeks later; kidney malfunction. how much of that fear of COVID was induced by consuming 24/7 media driven hysteria? We'll never know, but it was a contributing factor.

    , @Redman
    @AnotherDad

    This is spot on. It’s always been about the excess deaths and those numbers aren’t changing a lot.

    I’ve been watching them closely for a while and they haven’t changed at all in almost 3 months. We’re at still at 10-12% while the dreaded “let her rip” Sweden is still at about 0%.

    And our numbers need to be considered in light of iatrogenic deaths as well as deaths of despair caused by the lockdown. Yet the MSM’s drumbeat for more panic rolls on. We’ve come so far from a country with nothing to fear but fear itself.

    Replies: @Travis

  21. @JohnnyWalker123
    So, once this vaccine is administered, there would be immunity until the next mutation occurs.

    Would that be correct to say?

    Replies: @gcochran, @That Would Be Telling, @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

    The next mutation that materially changes the factors recognized by the immune system – most mutations don’t do that.

    • Thanks: JohnnyWalker123
    • Replies: @U. Ranus
    @gcochran

    most mutations don’t do that

    Sure, most mutations are duds.

    On the other hand, if there is a mutational path towards antibody-dependent enhancement, I trust nature to find it.

    , @tyrone
    @gcochran

    Or the next gain of function…..such a splendid weapon must be used again….it's like shooting dodo birds.

  22. @Hypnotoad666
    @JohnnyWalker123

    And election fraud is not possible.

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123

    Except when done by Russian hackers.

  23. I don’t get Steve on this one. No mRNA vaccine has ever been used in humans before. Its effects are unknown. What about potential autoimmunity? What about fatalities. Who pays? Hint: it’s NOT Moderna.

    OK, so we have a study with a few participants over a few months. Science? Right……

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @aleksander


    I don’t get Steve on this one. No mRNA vaccine has ever been used in humans before. Its effects are unknown.
     
    But unpredictable? And have the predictions been borne out starting with the run in parallel animal and Phase I human testing?

    They have a tremendous advantage in being very much like live virus vaccines, particularly the newer "replication deficient" ones that can't make more copies of themselves in your body, while being much simpler in only introducing one sequence of genetic code into the cells it hijacks, to make only one protein, a stabilized version of the infamous spike.

    The only thing that's new and exotic about them is their lipid protection, which is similar to that of enveloped viruses like the coronaviruses, the envelope being a bit of cell membrane, a lipid bi-layer. So in terms of general vaccine technology, only one new variable, and our bodies obviously have a great deal of machinery to handle lipids, plus see the toxicologist's maxim, "the dose makes the poison."

    What about potential autoimmunity? What about fatalities. Who pays? Hint: it’s NOT Moderna.
     
    The former is certainly possible, the latter is certain, when you give vaccines to tens, hundreds of millions or billions, you absolutely know some people will be maimed and killed by them; see also peanuts. It's all about risk/reward trade-offs.

    And like others, you're ignoring the criminal court system, if Moderna engages in that level of malfeasance. We also should check to see exactly to whom the civil liability immunity extends, how much beyond individuals who took the vaccine. It should include states, AG stands for Aspiring Governor after all.

    OK, so we have a study with a few participants over a few months. Science? Right……
     
    Yeah, SCIENCE!!! Which believes the vast majority of bad vaccine side effects happen in the first month and half, so the gate turned out not to be efficacy, but two months of data from half of those who got the vaccines. This data is enough to apply for a FDA Emergency Use Authorization (EUA), which is just the beginning of the process. An EUA is good for giving it to limited populations, like "essential workers," and the very most vulnerable.

    More time, these Phase III trials last for two years as I think I saw the Phase II do, more data, including those who get it under the EUA, and the FDA will consider approving it for the general population. Or subsets, presumably not those under 18 unless they're severely at risk. Moderna is now mooting a Phase III test on adolescents, I presume officially for herd immunity, but COVID-19 is killing or making severely ill some people below 18. Again, the FDA will be making risk/reward calculations if they approve it for a lower age cohort.
    , @The King is a Fink
    @aleksander

    Agree. Also it just me or do these results seem to good to be true for a treatment produced in such a short period of time?

    Didn't another article a few days ago state that the vaccine does not confer immunity, it simply mitigates the symptoms? Which doesn't really make it a vaccine unless I'm mistaken.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Jack D

  24. @JohnnyWalker123
    So, once this vaccine is administered, there would be immunity until the next mutation occurs.

    Would that be correct to say?

    Replies: @gcochran, @That Would Be Telling, @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

    So, once this vaccine is administered, there would be immunity until the next mutation occurs.

    Would that be correct to say?

    Define “mutation.” If you mean a new novel coronavirus, call is COVID-21 or -22 if cooked up by the PRC/CCP as a real bioweapon coupled with a mass inoculation campaign for COVID-19 that just happens to cover COVID-22, yep, we’ll need a new one, including new Phase III tests. A campaign officially for COVID-19 is essential, since a developed enough country doing a mass vaccination campaign out of the blue is a clear sign they’re preparing to set loose an infectious bioweapon. On the other hand, the CCP would be really insane to try to do this, given how bad their researchers are at keeping the bugs in their labs (COVID-19, if it’s from a lab, is just one of many such incidents, civilian and military).

    If you mean SARS-CoV-2 mutating into something that isn’t stopped by these vaccines, we can’t say. In our favor, coronaviruses have a proofreading mechanism unique to RNA viruses. And we have plenty of “eternal” vaccines for RNA viruses, because the body latches onto something “conserved,” it can’t change much or “the virus won’t virus.” We’re hoping the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein is just such a conserved thing (or rather, whatever parts of it the immune system latches onto).

    Not in our favor is that with a lot of the virus circulating, if it comes under selection pressure due to herd immunity beginning to develop due to vaccines, it just might happen, and get propagated, that is, become a dominate strain. This all is an ecological thing … and it’s curiously already pretty well adapted to humans, compared to many standard zoonotic jumps which are more lethal and less transmissible (the words of art you want here are “gain of function” experiments…).

    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666
    @That Would Be Telling


    In our favor, coronaviruses have a proofreading mechanism unique to RNA viruses.
     
    Then how come we don't have a vaccine for the "common cold," which I understand is just a number of coronavirus strains? Serious question.

    I thought it was because they were constantly mutating. But you say they are actually genetically stable.

    Replies: @James B. Shearer, @That Would Be Telling, @AnotherDad, @Jack D

  25. But Will Blacks Trust the White(/Asian) Man’s Vaccine?

    Murders take more lives than COVID in South Africa.

    Suicides are the same story in Japan.

    Japan: A month’s suicides surpass total death toll of Covid-19

    • Replies: @Kibernetika
    @Reg Cæsar

    Murders take more lives than COVID in South Africa.

    Of course! Even now Don Limone of CNN is winging his sugary fairy wings to SA to report on this. Wouldn't it be weird to wake up one morning and find "news outlets" discussing stats like that? Bzzzzzzzzz, bzzzzzzzzzz go wee Don's wings! (anyone got a .22 handy?)

    Suicides are the same story in Japan.

    This makes sense. The suicide rate's always pretty high. Japan seems pretty open, not so shut down. Pretty much masked. Folks commuting to work as they normally would. Same for Taiwan and most of mainland China, from what I see and hear (not there, just communicating).

  26. ‘Final Moderna Vaccine Results: 30 Out of 30 for Severe COVID Cases. But Will Blacks Trust the White(/Asian) Man’s Vaccine?’

    Jeepers! Whatever would happen if they refused to take it?

    I don’t suppose we could have a law that only blacks need to wear masks?

    Well, I thought I would ask…

  27. “ If only the former, COVID would become Just The Flu, Bro”

    Ummm Steve, that’s exactly what it is now.

  28. Ever feel like if you were to organize your life around doing the opposite of what blacks generally do, you’d end up pretty successful?

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    @Daniel Williams

    Dan, or pretty normal, by most standards.

  29. @AnotherDad
    @Goatweed


    If Moderna had been allowed to design, produce and sell a vaccine without testing the vaccine, how many people would have died from the vaccine versus how many would have people would have died from the disease given eight months of production at 20 million doses of the vaccine?
     
    There's a contradiction at the heart of Xi virus hysteria:

    If this really is the killer plague of the millennium, you really ought to be kicking aside tedious bureaucracy and regulations and yes incurring some *risk* to get the vaccine out and halt this killer ASAP. (Centuries ago in various places people would actually get "vaccinated" with the less lethal form of smallpox variola-minor which still had a 1% chance of killing you!)

    But they have no interest in doing the risky things you'd do if this was actually deadly.

    Cause ... that's not what this hysteria is about. It's about
    -- our increasingly feminized risk aversion
    -- political control--enabling Big Sister--and expertism
    -- whacking small business, the independent and self-reliant ... people who vote wrong
    -- and most of all ... getting Trump

    When you actually look at the plague ... it's not real impressive.

    It was looking impressive briefly last spring while Cuomo was slaughtering the frail in New York's nursing homes under the rubric of "fighting discrimination"--a performance which wins him the Democrats plaudits and awards.

    But since then it's been an unimpressive cull of the "dry tinder" who were destined to go this year or in the next few. Beyond that it's a blip. They'll be lucky to peg even 10% excess deaths.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

    Replies: @utu, @Mr. Anon, @Hypnotoad666, @Captain Tripps, @Redman

    If this really is the killer plague of the millennium, you really ought to be kicking aside tedious bureaucracy and regulations and yes incurring some *risk* to get the vaccine out and halt this killer ASAP.

    You create fallacious arguments just to satisfy your bias. Actually you do not make arguments, you engage in rhetorical demagoguery for masturbatory purpose that you can resist to share with others because of your apparent exhibitionist tendency: Let me show how I jerk off and make a fool of myself.

    In the sentence the premise ‘the killer plague of the millennium’ needs to be defied and quantified and in the the conclusion part the ‘risk’ needs to be quantified. Risks can be high and past experiences teach us to be very careful:

    The Cutter Incident: How America’s First Polio Vaccine Led to a Growing Vaccine Crisis
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1383764/

    In April 1955 more than 200 000 children in five Western and mid-Western USA states received a polio vaccine in which the process of inactivating the live virus proved to be defective. Within days there were reports of paralysis and within a month the first mass vaccination programme against polio had to be abandoned. Subsequent investigations revealed that the vaccine, manufactured by the California-based family firm of Cutter Laboratories, had caused 40 000 cases of polio, leaving 200 children with varying degrees of paralysis and killing 10.

  30. Keep in mind that this is a 2-shot regimen, so it is assumed it takes about a month for the vaccine to have full effect.

    How many got infected between the two shots? Were they included in the study or were they rejected? If rejected, were the placebo infections in the first month also rejected?

    If the study lasted 3 months from the first shot and all 11 got infected in the last two months that would be odd. The time distribution of infections for the placebo group should be looked at.

    If infections from then first month were not rejected then the effectiveness of the vaccine could be even higher.

  31. @Jack D
    @Goatweed

    In retrospect it would have been better, but if you put all your money into Lotto tickets and you win, that was a great investment in hindsight also. What if they gave it to 20 million people and then they found out that people who take the vaccine suffer severe side effects a month or two after they get the shot? By then it's too late to take it back. This is why we have drug trials.

    Replies: @unit472, @lysias

    When you go from giving any medicine from a trial involving a few tens of thousands to tens of millions expect the unexpected. The NSAID Viox seemed safe in clinical trials and was approved but when it became widely prescribed it was quickly pulled from the market as it was killing people. Lots of people. Then there was Thalidomide, whose gruesome effects on pregnant women and their babies only was discovered after it became widely available in Europe.

    • Replies: @gcochran
    @unit472

    Not pulled quickly.

    , @Jack D
    @unit472

    Thalidomide was not approved by the FDA and that happened 60 years ago. This has nothing to do with testing standards in 2020.

    Vaccines are among the safest of all medicines in part because you only take them once or twice and not every day. There is a remote possibility that effects not observed during the trial will occur once the # of recipients is broadened from thousands to millions but only a very remote one and when balanced against the risks associated with the disease the vaccine wins.

    Replies: @botazefa, @That Would Be Telling

  32. A big question is whether, following the Democrats’ and Prestige Media’s months of declaring that white people are out to get blacks, and the Democratic candidates’ anti-vaxx dogwhistling against Trump’s emphasis on rapid vaccine development, whether enough blacks will allow themselves to be vaccinated.

    Who cares? I mean, I understand that the purpose of this blog is, in large part, to identify interesting and unspoken trends. But, beyond the academic, who cares? Blacks suffer and die in large numbers already all the time because they’re susceptible to irresponsible and ill-considered messages from the media. Nothing new there. And, frankly, the rest of us should take any opportunity we can to not have to Drop Everything And Worry About The Blacks. The Uplift of the American Negro is a neverending national project that will never lack for energy, no matter how much it lacks for guidance or honesty.

    • Agree: Buffalo Joe, Redman
  33. @Reg Cæsar

    But Will Blacks Trust the White(/Asian) Man's Vaccine?
     
    Murders take more lives than COVID in South Africa.

    Suicides are the same story in Japan.


    Japan: A month’s suicides surpass total death toll of Covid-19

    Replies: @Kibernetika

    Murders take more lives than COVID in South Africa.

    Of course! Even now Don Limone of CNN is winging his sugary fairy wings to SA to report on this. Wouldn’t it be weird to wake up one morning and find “news outlets” discussing stats like that? Bzzzzzzzzz, bzzzzzzzzzz go wee Don’s wings! (anyone got a .22 handy?)

    Suicides are the same story in Japan.

    This makes sense. The suicide rate’s always pretty high. Japan seems pretty open, not so shut down. Pretty much masked. Folks commuting to work as they normally would. Same for Taiwan and most of mainland China, from what I see and hear (not there, just communicating).

  34. anonymous[751] • Disclaimer says:

    I’m sorry, where is the Steve post where he just says,

    “I apologize for being totally wrong about this coronavirus hoax where clearly the goal is to simply ruin your lives. It turns out total deaths aren’t up and it literally cannot affect you at all if you’re not already in a nursing home and all of the data has proven this time and time again. No increase in total deaths, no evidence it can or does affect normal people and even for sick people the reason flu deaths and heart disease deaths are down is because they simply decided to code–for no reason–all deaths as covid deaths if you test positive or they think you had covid “symptoms” which include literally everything that normally kills all of the 85 year olds who are going to die which is why total deaths haven’t increased at all. So it’s probably a bad thing they ruined your life and your kids’ lives and are ramming through globalist corporatist communism based on a completely fake disease hoax. Oops, my mistake.”

    I’m not sure I understand these posts where he’s taking the hoax at face value and “analyzing” it in terms of the evil hoax being pushed on us by people who hate us.

    • Replies: @SparkyLyle92
    @anonymous

    "’m not sure I understand these posts where he’s taking the hoax at face value and “analyzing” it in terms of the evil hoax being pushed on us by people who hate us."

    What's to understand? Steve is a paid agent of influence. He'll promote whatever BS his bosses tell him to promote.

    , @Muggles
    @anonymous

    Everyone is free to take their own risk assessment and draw conclusions about potential vaccines.

    You can call it a "hoax" but few medical doctors/epidemiologists appear to agree.

    Yes, things are shut down, etc. due to fear of this. People are getting sick (or are they all hoaxers too?) Fear does strange things. Like start foreign wars that never end, etc.

    Then some here bitch because Mr. Sailer chooses to write about it or excerpt writings about it. If you don't want to read about the "hoax" go elsewhere, how 'bout that?

    As for all the chest thumpers here yelling 'hoax', I have yet to read anyone doing that who cites their own advanced medical or biological credentials or clinical experience. Not A Single One.

    We already know this is a puzzling development, this WuFlu. Stopping it is very difficult.

    But a lot of people on right wing sites (and others) claimed about 30 years ago that AIDS was also a hoax caused by various minor aliments or nutritional deficiencies. Eventually these people vanished. The science proved out and their cries of hoax all wrong.

    So rant and vent, that's what is done here. But to savagely berate others because they have a different take on things is childish if not a form of mental illness. If you don't like what iSteve posts here, feel free to run your own blog. Or just wait patiently until science proves you right.

    Also, the Biden-Harris era is soon upon us. You'll find better things to complain about with that.

    Replies: @anonymous

  35. @JohnnyWalker123

    it would have been better, but if you put all your money into Lotto tickets and you win
     
    Epstein seems to have done something like that.

    Hidden Epstein Records Indicate He ‘Won’ an $41 Million Oklahoma Lottery Jackpot Payout
     
    https://www.winterwatch.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Epstein-the-lotto-winner.jpg

    On July 2, 2008 — just one day after convicted sex offender Jeffery Epstein started to serve an 18-month jail term in Florida as Inmate No. W35755 — his New Mexico “financial planning company,” called Zorro Trust, won the Oklahoma Power Lottery payout of $41.3 million and ultimately collected nearly $30 million in after tax winnings.

    Jeffrey Epstein’s, “New Mexico” spread in his black book identifies a column as Epstein, Jeffrey, Zorro Ranch, with a phone listing for Brice & Karen. The very same Brice M. Gordon, who is a manager of Zorro Trust.
     
    https://www.winterwatch.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/rhdu7hwoxjf31-600x267.png

    Only in cartoon world would it be believable that a so-called “sophisticated investor” who typically is looking to scalp every arbitrage and every basis point instead tosses money at awful-odds lotteries. This stinks to high heaven.

    This heist was facilitated by “computer glitch”” the day of the public drawing on July 2, 2008.
     
    https://www.winterwatch.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Capture-22-600x323.png

    TLDR Summary:

    -Jeffrey Epstein won $41 million in the 2008 Oklahoma lotto.
    -Lotto is a good way to get rich.
    -Invest all your money in buying Lotto tickets and you, too, could get really "lucky."
    -A computer "glitch" might spontaneously happen in your favor.

    Replies: @Hypnotoad666, @kaganovitch, @Old Prude

    Jeffrey Epstein won $41 million in the 2008 Oklahoma lotto.

    The money turned out to be a mixed blessing. I don’t know if you’re aware, but sadly he ended up killing himself.

    • Replies: @anon
    @kaganovitch

    I don’t know if you’re aware, but sadly he ended up killing himself.

    I've heard that sudden wealth can do that.

    Replies: @kaganovitch

    , @JohnnyWalker123
    @kaganovitch

    https://twitter.com/KirbySommers/status/1333456432239415299

    Replies: @kaganovitch

  36. Anon[240] • Disclaimer says:

    I read some time ago that vaccine developers were required to take-on diversity people as a condition to receiving funding. I predict that this will soon be publicized so as to characterize the vaccine success as a joint white/black success. It won’t be quite as absurd as Project 1619, but it will suffice to motivate diversity inoculation. Remember, Edison did not invent the light bulb, and the unrest was mostly peaceful.

  37. @AnotherDad
    @Goatweed


    If Moderna had been allowed to design, produce and sell a vaccine without testing the vaccine, how many people would have died from the vaccine versus how many would have people would have died from the disease given eight months of production at 20 million doses of the vaccine?
     
    There's a contradiction at the heart of Xi virus hysteria:

    If this really is the killer plague of the millennium, you really ought to be kicking aside tedious bureaucracy and regulations and yes incurring some *risk* to get the vaccine out and halt this killer ASAP. (Centuries ago in various places people would actually get "vaccinated" with the less lethal form of smallpox variola-minor which still had a 1% chance of killing you!)

    But they have no interest in doing the risky things you'd do if this was actually deadly.

    Cause ... that's not what this hysteria is about. It's about
    -- our increasingly feminized risk aversion
    -- political control--enabling Big Sister--and expertism
    -- whacking small business, the independent and self-reliant ... people who vote wrong
    -- and most of all ... getting Trump

    When you actually look at the plague ... it's not real impressive.

    It was looking impressive briefly last spring while Cuomo was slaughtering the frail in New York's nursing homes under the rubric of "fighting discrimination"--a performance which wins him the Democrats plaudits and awards.

    But since then it's been an unimpressive cull of the "dry tinder" who were destined to go this year or in the next few. Beyond that it's a blip. They'll be lucky to peg even 10% excess deaths.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

    Replies: @utu, @Mr. Anon, @Hypnotoad666, @Captain Tripps, @Redman

    Tsk-tsk, you have angered Utu, our resident COVID-hysteric. Why, he’ll get spittle all over the mask he probably wears while sitting alone in his den in front of his computer.

    • LOL: clyde, Old Prude, peterike
    • Replies: @William Badwhite
    @Mr. Anon


    while sitting alone in his den in front of his computer.
     
    in some country other than the US, weirdly spending his days constantly chiming in on US-specific issues...

    Replies: @Bert

  38. A big question is whether, following the Democrats’ and Prestige Media’s months of declaring that white people are out to get blacks, and the Democratic candidates’ anti-vaxx dogwhistling against Trump’s emphasis on rapid vaccine development, whether enough blacks will allow themselves to be vaccinated.

    Blacks trust the MSM media because they tell them what they want to hear. So when the same media tell them to vaccinate one would expect higher compliance among blacks than among recalcitrant whites who distrust the MSM media for the same reason blacks trust them. However among blacks there is also a recalcitrant subpopulation ready to believe all kinds of crazy theories which are not much different form the theories believed among the recalcitrant white libertarians.

  39. IRS sent “millions” in covid relief funds to foreigners living overseas in their own countries. How many millions? They don’t know and they don’t care.

    https://mol.im/a/9003179

    Most common homelands of recipients? India, China, Korea, Vietnam. So of course the Daily Mail features two recipients, one in Sweden and one in Australia.

    • Replies: @Anon
    @Charon


    Daily Mail features two recipients, one in Sweden and one in Australia
     
    And the "Australian" was probably chinese or indian.
    30% of "Australians" were born overseas.

    Replies: @Supply and Demand

    , @Anon
    @Charon

    Well, I got mine mailed to me as an expat overseas. My wife was impressed by Trump's name on the check.

    I also got my deposit from the Japanese government, but months later. The Japanese government had a complicated qualification system, and tens of thousands of civil servants, who could otherwise have worked from home, spent weeks checking everything. In some cases residents had to go into city offices to get ID documents issued. Who knows how many came down with Covid from this.

    The perfect is the enemy of the good. You can get help immediately to people who need it, with some goofs, or you can avoid all goofs but get the money sent out three months late.

    .

  40. @kaganovitch
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Jeffrey Epstein won $41 million in the 2008 Oklahoma lotto.

    The money turned out to be a mixed blessing. I don't know if you're aware, but sadly he ended up killing himself.

    Replies: @anon, @JohnnyWalker123

    I don’t know if you’re aware, but sadly he ended up killing himself.

    I’ve heard that sudden wealth can do that.

    • Replies: @kaganovitch
    @anon

    Yes, one has to have a strong moral foundation ,like say Jed Clampett, to resist the siren call of Mammon.

  41. If your African American with some combination of

    uncontrolled hypertension,
    untreated asthma,
    type 2 diabetes,
    COPD,
    sickle cell anemia,
    morbid obesity,
    COPD and/or
    the ravages of drug abuse. . .

    decides NOT to get the vaccine because Tuskegee and because White People want to see him die…

    …well, OK then.

    Gotta keep the store front funeral directors busy.

    Small business, after all!

  42. @unit472
    @Jack D

    When you go from giving any medicine from a trial involving a few tens of thousands to tens of millions expect the unexpected. The NSAID Viox seemed safe in clinical trials and was approved but when it became widely prescribed it was quickly pulled from the market as it was killing people. Lots of people. Then there was Thalidomide, whose gruesome effects on pregnant women and their babies only was discovered after it became widely available in Europe.

    Replies: @gcochran, @Jack D

    Not pulled quickly.

  43. @unit472
    @Jack D

    When you go from giving any medicine from a trial involving a few tens of thousands to tens of millions expect the unexpected. The NSAID Viox seemed safe in clinical trials and was approved but when it became widely prescribed it was quickly pulled from the market as it was killing people. Lots of people. Then there was Thalidomide, whose gruesome effects on pregnant women and their babies only was discovered after it became widely available in Europe.

    Replies: @gcochran, @Jack D

    Thalidomide was not approved by the FDA and that happened 60 years ago. This has nothing to do with testing standards in 2020.

    Vaccines are among the safest of all medicines in part because you only take them once or twice and not every day. There is a remote possibility that effects not observed during the trial will occur once the # of recipients is broadened from thousands to millions but only a very remote one and when balanced against the risks associated with the disease the vaccine wins.

    • Replies: @botazefa
    @Jack D


    Vaccines are among the safest of all medicine
     
    Even if that is true, the mRNA vaccines are a new type of vaccine. It's a mistake to extend the halo of vaccine safety to mRNA vaccines at this time.

    Replies: @MGB

    , @That Would Be Telling
    @Jack D


    Vaccines are among the safest of all medicines in part because you only take them once or twice and not every day.
     
    Another reason is that they demand a much higher margin of safety than treatments for someone who's already sick, seeing as how they're administrated to ostensibly healthy populations. That sick guy who may or will die unless some intervention is successful? You might be willing to take really big risks....
  44. Anon[314] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anon
    If people are too stupid to take the vaccine and they die as a result, this will be a tragedy for their family, but can only improve the national gene pool.

    Replies: @Anon, @Bard of Bumperstickers

    How many people is COVID killing who would have gone on to have children later if they’d lived? Probably not many.

    • Replies: @Bard of Bumperstickers
    @Anon

    Yeah, but the lockdown/econ destruction:
    Killing The Future: COVID Madness Will Lead To Half A Million Fewer US Births In 2021
    https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/killing-future-covid-madness-will-lead-half-million-fewer-us-births-2021

    From the above article:

    The US birthrate is already at its lowest level on record, and according to clinics, there has been a 50% jump in requests for birth control since the beginning of the pandemic, and a 40% increase in requests for Plan B.

    CDC research notes that the birth rate in the US has been below replacement level since 1971. It is now a problem across all major racial groups including Hispanics, non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic blacks, and non-Hispanic Asians. All have below replacement birth levels.

    A recent survey from the Guttmacher Institute discovered that 34% of women able to have babies in the US have made a decision to either delay having a child, or to just have fewer children because of COVID.

    Replies: @anon

  45. @John Achterhof
    Outstanding. The sacrifices over 2020 to my standard of living have been significant, but with these encouraging developments it looks like the local 2021 triathlon season will be a go - and I can't wait for the races to begin to get dressed up in my racer outfit and play jock! It is time now for all of us to transition from cautious to exuberant optimism.

    Replies: @Anon, @peterike, @Buffalo Joe

    I can’t wait for the races to begin to get dressed up in my racer outfit

    You’d look good in Lycra shorts. Super Sexy. Can I private message you, Mr hot stuff?

    • LOL: Charon
    • Replies: @John Achterhof
    @Anon

    The odds are long, but if you're a good looking young lady feel free.

  46. @kaganovitch
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Jeffrey Epstein won $41 million in the 2008 Oklahoma lotto.

    The money turned out to be a mixed blessing. I don't know if you're aware, but sadly he ended up killing himself.

    Replies: @anon, @JohnnyWalker123

    • Replies: @kaganovitch
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Well, it would explain how he suddenly morphed into David Souter.

    Replies: @tyrone, @Lot

  47. @That Would Be Telling
    @JohnnyWalker123


    So, once this vaccine is administered, there would be immunity until the next mutation occurs.

    Would that be correct to say?
     
    Define "mutation." If you mean a new novel coronavirus, call is COVID-21 or -22 if cooked up by the PRC/CCP as a real bioweapon coupled with a mass inoculation campaign for COVID-19 that just happens to cover COVID-22, yep, we'll need a new one, including new Phase III tests. A campaign officially for COVID-19 is essential, since a developed enough country doing a mass vaccination campaign out of the blue is a clear sign they're preparing to set loose an infectious bioweapon. On the other hand, the CCP would be really insane to try to do this, given how bad their researchers are at keeping the bugs in their labs (COVID-19, if it's from a lab, is just one of many such incidents, civilian and military).

    If you mean SARS-CoV-2 mutating into something that isn't stopped by these vaccines, we can't say. In our favor, coronaviruses have a proofreading mechanism unique to RNA viruses. And we have plenty of "eternal" vaccines for RNA viruses, because the body latches onto something "conserved," it can't change much or "the virus won't virus." We're hoping the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein is just such a conserved thing (or rather, whatever parts of it the immune system latches onto).

    Not in our favor is that with a lot of the virus circulating, if it comes under selection pressure due to herd immunity beginning to develop due to vaccines, it just might happen, and get propagated, that is, become a dominate strain. This all is an ecological thing ... and it's curiously already pretty well adapted to humans, compared to many standard zoonotic jumps which are more lethal and less transmissible (the words of art you want here are "gain of function" experiments...).

    Replies: @Hypnotoad666

    In our favor, coronaviruses have a proofreading mechanism unique to RNA viruses.

    Then how come we don’t have a vaccine for the “common cold,” which I understand is just a number of coronavirus strains? Serious question.

    I thought it was because they were constantly mutating. But you say they are actually genetically stable.

    • Replies: @James B. Shearer
    @Hypnotoad666

    "Then how come we don’t have a vaccine for the “common cold,” which I understand is just a number of coronavirus strains? Serious question."

    Some common colds are caused by coronaviruses. Most are caused by other viruses. Since common colds aren't very serious the cost benefit of developing a vaccine that would only prevent a small fraction of them never seemed favorable.

    Replies: @TTSSYF

    , @That Would Be Telling
    @Hypnotoad666



    In our favor, coronaviruses have a proofreading mechanism unique to RNA viruses.
     
    Then how come we don’t have a vaccine for the “common cold,” which I understand is just a number of coronavirus strains? Serious question.
     
    It's at least 8 families or subfamilies of viruses including the flu, with over 200 distinct types. Four "normal" human retroviruses are thought to cause only 15% of the cases of "the common cold."

    I thought it was because they were constantly mutating. But you say they are actually genetically stable.
     
    "Embrace the healing power of 'and'."
    , @AnotherDad
    @Hypnotoad666


    Then how come we don’t have a vaccine for the “common cold,” which I understand is just a number of coronavirus strains? Serious question.
     
    The "common cold" is probably--currently--a few hundred different viruses. Most, i understand, are rhinoviruses. Coronaviruses, adenoviruses have smaller market share.

    My guess is over the next few decades you will start to see more mRNA viruses for "colds". "Hey there's a new rhinovirus strain that's causing bad colds this winter ... we've got a vaccine."

    But there's an obvious risk/reward deal with this. Most people would happily take--pay for, go get the jab--a vaccine that would knock out say all the rhinovirus colds. But going going strain for strain you need more motivation than just one strain of something that you may not get that gives you the sniffles for a week.
    , @Jack D
    @Hypnotoad666

    which I understand is just a number of coronavirus strains?

    You understand wrong. There are 4 coronaviruses that together cause around 15% of human colds, the other 85% being cause by hundreds of other viruses. Using the same mRNA technology, they could probably create a vaccine for all 4 coronaviruses but this would only take care of 15% of colds. It costs maybe $1 billion to bring a vaccine to market. How many people would sign up for a vaccine that reduces the incidence of colds by 15%?

  48. @Anon
    @Anon

    How many people is COVID killing who would have gone on to have children later if they'd lived? Probably not many.

    Replies: @Bard of Bumperstickers

    Yeah, but the lockdown/econ destruction:
    Killing The Future: COVID Madness Will Lead To Half A Million Fewer US Births In 2021
    https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/killing-future-covid-madness-will-lead-half-million-fewer-us-births-2021

    From the above article:

    The US birthrate is already at its lowest level on record, and according to clinics, there has been a 50% jump in requests for birth control since the beginning of the pandemic, and a 40% increase in requests for Plan B.

    CDC research notes that the birth rate in the US has been below replacement level since 1971. It is now a problem across all major racial groups including Hispanics, non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic blacks, and non-Hispanic Asians. All have below replacement birth levels.

    A recent survey from the Guttmacher Institute discovered that 34% of women able to have babies in the US have made a decision to either delay having a child, or to just have fewer children because of COVID.

    • Replies: @anon
    @Bard of Bumperstickers

    From a certain point of view this is a feature, not a bug. Surely that's obvious.

    On the anecdotal front, here in flyover I know of a few newborns and a couple of preggers. All but one are actively religious, and the other is passively so.

  49. @Anon
    If people are too stupid to take the vaccine and they die as a result, this will be a tragedy for their family, but can only improve the national gene pool.

    Replies: @Anon, @Bard of Bumperstickers

    People stupid enough to take this intravenous mass-assassination will improve the gene pool. FIFY

    • Thanks: JimDandy
    • Replies: @Anon
    @Bard of Bumperstickers


    People stupid enough to take this intravenous mass-assassination will improve the gene pool. FIFY
     
    Vaccines are generally intramuscular, sometimes intradermal.

    Replies: @Bard of Bumperstickers

  50. @AnotherDad
    @Goatweed


    If Moderna had been allowed to design, produce and sell a vaccine without testing the vaccine, how many people would have died from the vaccine versus how many would have people would have died from the disease given eight months of production at 20 million doses of the vaccine?
     
    There's a contradiction at the heart of Xi virus hysteria:

    If this really is the killer plague of the millennium, you really ought to be kicking aside tedious bureaucracy and regulations and yes incurring some *risk* to get the vaccine out and halt this killer ASAP. (Centuries ago in various places people would actually get "vaccinated" with the less lethal form of smallpox variola-minor which still had a 1% chance of killing you!)

    But they have no interest in doing the risky things you'd do if this was actually deadly.

    Cause ... that's not what this hysteria is about. It's about
    -- our increasingly feminized risk aversion
    -- political control--enabling Big Sister--and expertism
    -- whacking small business, the independent and self-reliant ... people who vote wrong
    -- and most of all ... getting Trump

    When you actually look at the plague ... it's not real impressive.

    It was looking impressive briefly last spring while Cuomo was slaughtering the frail in New York's nursing homes under the rubric of "fighting discrimination"--a performance which wins him the Democrats plaudits and awards.

    But since then it's been an unimpressive cull of the "dry tinder" who were destined to go this year or in the next few. Beyond that it's a blip. They'll be lucky to peg even 10% excess deaths.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

    Replies: @utu, @Mr. Anon, @Hypnotoad666, @Captain Tripps, @Redman

    But they have no interest in doing the risky things you’d do if this was actually deadly.

    “They” know the score. When the cameras are off and no proles are around, they take off their masks, gather in close groups, and laugh at you.

    Like Newsome at French Laundry. If he believed he was risking the lives of his wife, his health lobyist friends, and himself, by having a maskless indoor dinner party, he would have jumped from the table and run out. But he and his fancy friends know better and aren’t the least bit scared.

    Same with Cuomo having Thanksgiving dinner with his girlfriend and 89 year-old mother. Take note of what they do, not what they say

  51. @Hypnotoad666
    @That Would Be Telling


    In our favor, coronaviruses have a proofreading mechanism unique to RNA viruses.
     
    Then how come we don't have a vaccine for the "common cold," which I understand is just a number of coronavirus strains? Serious question.

    I thought it was because they were constantly mutating. But you say they are actually genetically stable.

    Replies: @James B. Shearer, @That Would Be Telling, @AnotherDad, @Jack D

    “Then how come we don’t have a vaccine for the “common cold,” which I understand is just a number of coronavirus strains? Serious question.”

    Some common colds are caused by coronaviruses. Most are caused by other viruses. Since common colds aren’t very serious the cost benefit of developing a vaccine that would only prevent a small fraction of them never seemed favorable.

    • Thanks: Hypnotoad666
    • Replies: @TTSSYF
    @James B. Shearer

    We also don't have vaccines to prevent infection with HIV or herpesviruses. They mutate too frequently -- it's like chasing a wizard. Same with the annual flu shot, which is effective, at best, only about 65% of the time. There are all kinds of therapeutics for the common cold. I have little doubt that, if an annual shot could be developed for it that was at least as effective as the annual flu shot is, it would be on the market. The cost would be made up in volume.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @gcochran

  52. @Bard of Bumperstickers
    @Anon

    Yeah, but the lockdown/econ destruction:
    Killing The Future: COVID Madness Will Lead To Half A Million Fewer US Births In 2021
    https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/killing-future-covid-madness-will-lead-half-million-fewer-us-births-2021

    From the above article:

    The US birthrate is already at its lowest level on record, and according to clinics, there has been a 50% jump in requests for birth control since the beginning of the pandemic, and a 40% increase in requests for Plan B.

    CDC research notes that the birth rate in the US has been below replacement level since 1971. It is now a problem across all major racial groups including Hispanics, non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic blacks, and non-Hispanic Asians. All have below replacement birth levels.

    A recent survey from the Guttmacher Institute discovered that 34% of women able to have babies in the US have made a decision to either delay having a child, or to just have fewer children because of COVID.

    Replies: @anon

    From a certain point of view this is a feature, not a bug. Surely that’s obvious.

    On the anecdotal front, here in flyover I know of a few newborns and a couple of preggers. All but one are actively religious, and the other is passively so.

  53. @JohnnyWalker123
    @kaganovitch

    https://twitter.com/KirbySommers/status/1333456432239415299

    Replies: @kaganovitch

    Well, it would explain how he suddenly morphed into David Souter.

    • Agree: YetAnotherAnon
    • Replies: @tyrone
    @kaganovitch

    That, and those two blond haired blue eyed children from "South America"(wink,wink)

    , @Lot
    @kaganovitch

    “he suddenly morphed into David Souter.”

    He did not.

    This Pizzagate garbage makes nationalists look stupid.

    Replies: @Getaclue, @kaganovitch

  54. “A big unanswered question is whether these vaccines protect not only the recipients from severe symptoms, which they apparently do, quite well, but also protect the unvaccinated from being infected by vaccine recipients with no or only mild symptoms.”
    I don´t understand why Modern and Biontech have not included weekly PCR-testing in their study. Somebody who is infected will in most cases show a positive test at least for a week, so testing everyone once per week would be enough to catch almost all positive infections. So they could know whether they have as many asymptomatic cases in the Vaccine-arm as in the Placebo-arm or whether this number is higher in the Vaccine-arm. And thus they would know whether the vaccine only helps against getting ill or whether it also help against getting infected (and being able to infect others). Maybe I am forgetting something but this should have cost probably less then 20 million Dollar. In this contest a negligible sum of money.

    • Replies: @U. Ranus
    @Erik Sieven

    I don´t understand why Modern and Biontech have not included weekly PCR-testing in their study.

    Low prevalence means many false-positives, lots of noise over not a lot of signal. So basically a coin-flip chance of getting the wrong outcome, which they would have had to explain away by making clear that those positive PCR tests without symptoms were quite meaningless. But since PCR testing is a main plank of their marketing campaign, that would have been like shooting themselves in the foot.

    , @Erik Sieven
    @Erik Sieven

    The specificity of these tests is known, so this would be a mere statistical problem, wouldn't it?

  55. @Goatweed
    If Moderna had been allowed to design, produce and sell a vaccine without testing the vaccine, how many people would have died from the vaccine versus how many would have people would have died from the disease given eight months of production at 20 million doses of the vaccine?

    Replies: @Jack D, @Johann Ricke, @AnotherDad, @Yancey Ward, @Colin Wright

    The really important delay was in not doing challenge trials with any of the vaccines. They had enough safety data 4 months ago to proceed with voluntary vaccinations by late August. The reason no challenge trials were done had nothing to do with ethical considerations- the trials were lengthened so that no vaccine would be available until after November 3rd. These people literally have blood on their hands to get Biden elected.

    • Replies: @Steve Richter
    @Yancey Ward


    The reason no challenge trials were done had nothing to do with ethical considerations- the trials were lengthened so that no vaccine would be available until after November 3rd. These people literally have blood on their hands to get Biden elected.
     
    all true. But what does this say for the competence of Trump, his chief of staff, VP ??? The Trump people were not competent enough to study how the vaccine worked, see that they had a clear winner, hire PR people to make the case for trial volunteers. Trump did not counter what Fauci and his allies were doing to slow vaccine trials.
  56. I suppose now Pfizer will have to claim that their vaccine is not only 100% effective at keeping people from dying, but will also cure male pattern baldness…..or cancer.

  57. @SparkyLyle92
    Good twist for pushing pro-vaccine propaganda to Unz readership.
    Anybody promoting these vaccines should be required to receive them.
    Guinea pig much?

    Replies: @Kaz, @AnotherDad

    Docs/nurses are getting the vaccines first.Us pro-vaxxers couldn’t get the vaccine early even if we wanted..

  58. @anon
    @kaganovitch

    I don’t know if you’re aware, but sadly he ended up killing himself.

    I've heard that sudden wealth can do that.

    Replies: @kaganovitch

    Yes, one has to have a strong moral foundation ,like say Jed Clampett, to resist the siren call of Mammon.

  59. @Charon
    IRS sent "millions" in covid relief funds to foreigners living overseas in their own countries. How many millions? They don't know and they don't care.


    https://mol.im/a/9003179

    Most common homelands of recipients? India, China, Korea, Vietnam. So of course the Daily Mail features two recipients, one in Sweden and one in Australia.

    Replies: @Anon, @Anon

    Daily Mail features two recipients, one in Sweden and one in Australia

    And the “Australian” was probably chinese or indian.
    30% of “Australians” were born overseas.

    • Replies: @Supply and Demand
    @Anon

    Australia has the weakest claim to being a white country in the entire Anglosphere. White Portuguese settlements in Angola are 200 years older than the first white settlement in Oz.

    Replies: @sb

  60. @gcochran
    @JohnnyWalker123

    The next mutation that materially changes the factors recognized by the immune system - most mutations don't do that.

    Replies: @U. Ranus, @tyrone

    most mutations don’t do that

    Sure, most mutations are duds.

    On the other hand, if there is a mutational path towards antibody-dependent enhancement, I trust nature to find it.

    • Agree: Jack Armstrong
  61. the White(/Asian) Man’s Vaccine

    You take those parentheses back!

  62. @Bard of Bumperstickers
    @Anon

    People stupid enough to take this intravenous mass-assassination will improve the gene pool. FIFY

    Replies: @Anon

    People stupid enough to take this intravenous mass-assassination will improve the gene pool. FIFY

    Vaccines are generally intramuscular, sometimes intradermal.

    • Replies: @Bard of Bumperstickers
    @Anon

    Yeah, that was the point, bud. Pardon the med-tech mistake typed two hours after bedtime, while trying to do something about this impending planet-wide manufactured Hegelian crisis. The point remains valid. It's a murderous scam of unprecedented dimensions. Nuremberg 2.0 is called for, immediately.

    Replies: @Muggles, @Anon

  63. @Erik Sieven
    "A big unanswered question is whether these vaccines protect not only the recipients from severe symptoms, which they apparently do, quite well, but also protect the unvaccinated from being infected by vaccine recipients with no or only mild symptoms."
    I don´t understand why Modern and Biontech have not included weekly PCR-testing in their study. Somebody who is infected will in most cases show a positive test at least for a week, so testing everyone once per week would be enough to catch almost all positive infections. So they could know whether they have as many asymptomatic cases in the Vaccine-arm as in the Placebo-arm or whether this number is higher in the Vaccine-arm. And thus they would know whether the vaccine only helps against getting ill or whether it also help against getting infected (and being able to infect others). Maybe I am forgetting something but this should have cost probably less then 20 million Dollar. In this contest a negligible sum of money.

    Replies: @U. Ranus, @Erik Sieven

    I don´t understand why Modern and Biontech have not included weekly PCR-testing in their study.

    Low prevalence means many false-positives, lots of noise over not a lot of signal. So basically a coin-flip chance of getting the wrong outcome, which they would have had to explain away by making clear that those positive PCR tests without symptoms were quite meaningless. But since PCR testing is a main plank of their marketing campaign, that would have been like shooting themselves in the foot.

  64. I mentioned on Unz that a close friend of mine (white, male, 50’s) passed away from Covid several months ago (he had a comorbidity that was highly survivable without Covid). I learned in the last few weeks that two more of my friends have caught it. One (white, male, 60’s) is doing fine. He only had mild symptoms and seems to have recovered. The other one (white, male, and 50’s), whose family called me last week with the news, is NOT doing well and is currently at a hospital. He had substantial contacts with the local Hispanic population, which has been hit hard by the virus in my county.

    Today I sat down with my wife, who is the head of a local hospital, but not an immunologist nor a epidemiologist, and had a long conversation about Covid, the vaccines, and where the American society will be in a year. The conclusion we came to was that, once the vaccines turn out to be efficacious and (relatively) safe, we will still have lingering pockets of Covid floating about the segment of the population that refuses to be vaccinated and/or practices poor hygiene.

    So what we think might happen is that the pandemic will be fairly well-controlled once there is mass-vaccination, but we will never go back to the time before. Eventually, we hope that, with the vaccines and improve therapies, this will become like a flu – another coronavirus that has relatively mild symptoms and very low mortality among the vaccinated and those with good hygiene, but one that will continue to infect and kill a small, but significant segment of the infected and persist in pockets of the population. So even after the vaccines, we will likely continue to see some Americans wearing masks in public during “Covid season” (or all the time, I guess), like a traditional flu season in Hong Kong, Japan or Korea.

    What my wife and I both hope is that this was a big wakeup call for the country, and will lead to us having a much more robust and rapid-reacting, (true) public health system that is ready to deal with future pandemics, including an effective contact-tracing and quarantine system, a system that will be able to greatly minimize damage in lives and livelihood until vaccines and appropriate therapies can be developed.

    • Thanks: Dissident
    • Troll: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Replies: @peterike
    @Twinkie


    Eventually, we hope that, with the vaccines and improve therapies, this will become like a flu – another coronavirus that has relatively mild symptoms and very low mortality among the vaccinated and those with good hygiene, but one that will continue to infect and kill a small, but significant segment of the infected and persist in pockets of the population.
     
    Your description of "eventually" is exactly what Covid is right now, without any vaccine -- relatively mild symptoms, very low mortality, kills a small but significant segment of the infected. 100% accurate description of Covid RIGHT NOW.

    Replies: @Twinkie

    , @candid_observer
    @Twinkie

    Suppose it were true that Covid is here to stay, in the sense that, among certain groups, there will always be enough people who refuse to be vaccinated to keep it going.

    Here's the thing: they would have chosen their own fate by that refusal. And, perhaps, if they were a group generally invulnerable to Covid, that may not be a bad fate anyway. If you're under 40 and in good health, how irrational is it to refuse the vaccine? At most your decision might require those who are vulnerable to be vaccinated.

    In any case, the vaccines would offer them a clear way out if they really wanted it. It would be, or at least should be, hard to convince the rest of society to shut down or wear masks if they were so obviously responsible for their own plight.

    Replies: @candid_observer

    , @botazefa
    @Twinkie


    What my wife and I both hope is that this was a big wakeup call for the country
     
    Sure sure, Twinkie, but where does your mom stand on this? What about your sister? And where do Ellen and Oprah and the Church Lady stand?

    If you're going to join the estrogen aristocracy, you need to dot all your i's and cross all your t's.

    Are you authorized to speak for all women?

    , @vhrm
    @Twinkie


    So what we think might happen is that the pandemic will be fairly well-controlled once there is mass-vaccination, but we will never go back to the time before.
     
    It looks like in the EU he rate of daily new cases peaked 3 weeks ago already and it's on quick decline. Deaths per day seems to be peaking now (it's been stable for about a week).

    UK new cases peaked around 2 weeks ago and are in slow decline. Deaths are fairly stable.

    In the US the past week's numbers are unreliable due to Thanksgiving, but the "hardest hit" third wave states peaked around 3 weeks ago in new cases per day are a down by half since then.
    US overall may or may not have peaked... looks like CA and NY are still on the way up (slowly) so maybe not.

    (all via https://91-divoc.com )

    The point being that wave 3 is already receding in the EU and maybe even the US.

    The development of these vaccines had been a technological and institutional marvel, but its clinical impact will be modest in 2020 and early 2021.

    It'll prevent the late 2021 aftershocks, I guess, but those n-th waves will be smaller echoes anyway.

    If have hoped that the lockdown overreaction around inoculate us against similar panic for Sars-cov3 whenever it comes, but so far it seems most people have been drawing the lesson that arbitrary government lockdowns are a good and desirable thing...
    maybe reflection after the fact in the months and years to come will lead to a reassessment.

    , @AnotherDad
    @Twinkie


    Eventually, we hope that, with the vaccines and improve therapies, this will become like a flu
     
    Twinkie, that's more or less what i thought back in the spring.

    But with this vaccine, that's not what i see happening now. Mainly because the vaccine is so effective, and because coronaviruses have this replication proof-reading and so are much less mutation prone than the flu viruses. (My thanks to the iSteve commenters who explained this to me.)

    It is these continual antigen shifts that keep the flu popping. I've been exposed to the Asian (H2N2) the Hong Kong (H3N2), the Swine (H1N1) and had the '76 swine jab as well as plenty of seasonal shots aimed at this or that strain over the years. But the flu has kicked my ass a few times.

    In contrast, once i get my jab for this (like Moderna, but will take whatever) i should be done with it. (If it turns out a booster every 10 or 20 is called for, i'll get that.)

    Yeah, this will wizzle on in pockets. And old folks whose immune systems have crashed, will die from it, as they do the flu. Though, i suspect less so, because even the nursing homes hiring the Somali attendants will have them vaccination.

    Basically the vaccine is going to really put the whoop ass on this thing. If it doesn't mutate, it's playlist is going to only be anti-vaxers and those with poor immune systems. The measles--just way less virulent.

    Replies: @Twinkie, @That Would Be Telling, @MEH 0910

  65. @Anonymous
    Blacks might as well trust the “white man’s vaccine”, because I’m quite certain, that there will not be, a “black man’s vaccine .” Is this really where we are now? If people are only going to use things invented by their own race, there’s going to be a lot of desperate people running around with nothing.

    Replies: @Lockean Proviso, @Hannah Katz, @Nicholas Stix

    Maybe the legacy media can find a black lab worker at one of the vaccine makers and promote the idea that they are the actual creator of the vaccine, it having been stolen from them by white scientists. Netflix could make a movie about it, “Black Antibodies.”. Whatever it takes to reassure blacks that the vaccine is actually theirs so that they will take it when they’re placed at the front of the line.

    • Replies: @Anon
    @Lockean Proviso


    Maybe the legacy media can find a black lab worker at one of the vaccine makers and promote the idea that they are the actual creator of the vaccine, it having been stolen from them by white scientists. Netflix could make a movie about it, “Black Antibodies.”. Whatever it takes to reassure blacks that the vaccine is actually theirs so that they will take it when they’re placed at the front of the line.
     
    Hahaa! But in this day and age I could see nationwide protests and looting based on getting all the royalties to Mr. Black Antibody, who hints that it might be a big payday for the black community since he is feeling charitable. The legacy media would buy into it.

    Replies: @Lockean Proviso

    , @Alan Mercer
    @Lockean Proviso

    Rejoice, for she has been found.

    https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/national/coronavirus/vaccine-developed-by-an-african-american-woman-says-fauci-responding-to-concerns-mistrust

    "The vaccine that you're going to be taking was developed by an African American woman. And that is just a fact. I mean, that is a fact."
    - Dr. Fauci

  66. Well, Steve, considering that the vast majority of the anti-vaxers are white, and conservative, methinks you might be pushing it with the whole race-baiting. Good luck convincing whites of midwestern red states to take the vaccine.

    • Replies: @TTSSYF
    @Rockford Tyson

    You and others with so much contempt for conservative whites in flyover country should give it a rest. Your labeling of conservative whites who are adopting a "wait-and-see" attitude as being "anti-vaxers" is on a par with disparaging those of us with a less than favorable outlook on where this economy and country are headed and take what we believe are reasonable measures to protect our lives and wealth as "preppers." It isn't Mr. Sailer who's the race-baiter.

    Replies: @Rockford Tyson

    , @That Would Be Telling
    @Rockford Tyson


    considering that the vast majority of the anti-vaxers are white, and conservative
     
    Citation Needed. Especially since one epidemiology technique for dealing with them is to draw circles of a certain radius centered on Whole Food stores. See also the Kennedy who's a leading anti-vax figure ... OK, by today's standards JFK would be a Literally Worse Than Hitler Nazi, but what about this guy?

    Replies: @Rockford Tyson

  67. At this level of knowledge/ignorance, I’d rather skip those three vaccines & use Russian & Chinese. Moderna & Pfizer have too many questions about them, and all that RNA-for life stuff is too suspicious.
    I’d rather wait.

    • Agree: Supply and Demand
    • Replies: @Travis
    @Bardon Kaldian

    most will have to wait until the FDA approves it. Will probably not get approved by the FDA for another 12 months. The FDA may grant Emergency Use Authorizations later this month. But this will be restricted to those who face serious or life-threatening diseases or conditions. COVID is not life threatening for 90% of the population. So those under the age of 60 will not have access to this vaccine until the FDA grants full approval. I suppose those who work in hospitals will be granted access to the vaccine next year, but the average person will not be granted emergency use of these vaccines.

    , @MEH 0910
    @Bardon Kaldian


    At this level of knowledge/ignorance, I’d rather skip those three vaccines & use Russian & Chinese.
     
    Crawling To The U.S.A.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_YeKztCOYc

    Crawling To The U.S.A. · Elvis Costello & The Attractions
     
    http://www.elviscostello.info/wiki/index.php/Crawling_To_The_USA

    Everybody is on their knees except the Russians and the Chinese
     
  68. Vaccine efficacy against COVID-19 was 94.1%; vaccine efficacy against severe COVID-19 was 100% …

    This doesn’t describe a vaccine … it describes a therapeutic.

    • Agree: TTSSYF, TheTrumanShow
    • Disagree: That Would Be Telling
  69. Another way of looking at these results would be to use the data to estimate the difference in the incidence of infection that would result from the mass administration of this particular vaccine.

    In approximate terms, the proportion infected in the experimental group was 0.073%, the proportion in the control group was 1.233%, and the difference in proportions infected was 1.16%. Hence, the results suggest that, under current conditions, mass vaccination would reduce the incidence of infection by 1.16%.

    Having said this, by my estimation, the Confidence Interval for the difference in proportions infected is CI= 1.16 (-1.54 to 3.36). Since the interval includes the zero value the observed difference between experimental and control groups is not statistically significant.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Julian of Norwich

    "Hence, the results suggest that, under current conditions, mass vaccination would reduce the incidence of infection by 1.16%."

    Nah, that's not how an infectious epidemic works. It doesn't rise to 1.16% infected and then just stop.

    Against this, your either winning or losing. Let's try winning.

    Replies: @kihowi

    , @John Achterhof
    @Julian of Norwich


    In approximate terms, the proportion infected in the experimental group was 0.073%, the proportion in the control group was 1.233%, and the difference in proportions infected was 1.16%. Hence, the results suggest that, under current conditions, mass vaccination would reduce the incidence of infection by 1.16%.

    Having said this, by my estimation, the Confidence Interval for the difference in proportions infected is CI= 1.16 (-1.54 to 3.36). Since the interval includes the zero value the observed difference between experimental and control groups is not statistically significant.
     
    I'm no expert in the field but the relevant analysis of the data seems to me to consist in the rate of infection of control group being 17 times higher than the rate of infection of experimental group.

    Did you stay at a Holiday Inn last night, or what?
    , @candid_observer
    @Julian of Norwich

    The actual rate of infection at a given time in the population sample is irrelevant. It could be 1% or 100% -- what's key is the proportion of those infected who are in the vaccine group vs the placebo group. The relevant statistics derive from the numbers in those groups.

    This the marvel of a randomized control trial, and we should all take off our hats to RA Fisher.

    , @utu
    @Julian of Norwich


    "the proportion infected in the experimental group was 0.073%, the proportion in the control group was 1.233%"
     
    These numbers are for T=3 months. If we set T to infinity all 15,000 in control group will get infected while only 15,000*(o.073/1.233)=888 will get infected in the vaccinated group which is 6% of 15,000.

    By vaccinating everybody you save 94% of population as opposed to not vaccinating anybody. However to save 94% of population you do not have to vaccinate everybody because the herd immunity will kick in at much lower level of vaccination prevalence and actually you may save more than 94%. This is true for a well mixed model. In not well mixed vaccinated-to-not-vaccinated population at say 70% prevalence local clusters of flare ups may happen like at libertarian conventions, bikers rallies and anti-vaxxer seances.

    Replies: @Anon

    , @AnotherDad
    @Julian of Norwich

    Some minds were not built for math.

  70. Anon[242] • Disclaimer says:
    @Charon
    IRS sent "millions" in covid relief funds to foreigners living overseas in their own countries. How many millions? They don't know and they don't care.


    https://mol.im/a/9003179

    Most common homelands of recipients? India, China, Korea, Vietnam. So of course the Daily Mail features two recipients, one in Sweden and one in Australia.

    Replies: @Anon, @Anon

    Well, I got mine mailed to me as an expat overseas. My wife was impressed by Trump’s name on the check.

    I also got my deposit from the Japanese government, but months later. The Japanese government had a complicated qualification system, and tens of thousands of civil servants, who could otherwise have worked from home, spent weeks checking everything. In some cases residents had to go into city offices to get ID documents issued. Who knows how many came down with Covid from this.

    The perfect is the enemy of the good. You can get help immediately to people who need it, with some goofs, or you can avoid all goofs but get the money sent out three months late.

    .

  71. In darkest Yorkshire, “the struggle against ignorance and superstition continues”.

    https://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/18609000.conspiracy-theories-rumours-bradford-ahead-coronavirus-vaccine-trials/

    He also wrote about a healthcare assistant at the hospital, who didn’t want to be named, who has seen Covid patients on the ward, but still believes many of the conspiracy theories online and will not watch ‘mainstream media’ reports.

    She said she feels there’s a “big lie in the world”.

    Giselle Rwegema, is a TB nurse at St Luke’s Hospital and does volunteer work with East African refugees.

    She said many believe that the vaccine is “a way of getting rid of black people” and a video claiming the vaccine would be trialled on very poor people in Africa was shared by millions.

    One young mother, Corrine, said she would not have a vaccine.

    She said: “Because obviously, me being black and everything that we know about the work that’s going on to just take a black number down – that’s been going on for years and I wouldn’t take it just based on that, because there are so many things that will be hidden in the vaccine.”

    You’ll all have noticed the collapse in the African population of the last 70 years. I think our host has a graph.

    Meanwhile, A&E ward sister Emma Clinton told the story of one Asian gentleman in his early 60s.

    He was afraid to go to hospital and by the time his family called an ambulance, was already dying and passed away in the department with an hour.

    She said: “And then of course the family were absolutely distraught. The son was saying, ‘What lethal injection did you give him? How has he died? Have you killed him?’”

    So Muslim figures are having their arms twisted.

    https://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/18909949.bradfords-novavax-vaccine-trial-boosted-conspiracy-q/

    More than 2,000 people have signed up to covid-19 vaccine trials in Bradford following a myth-busting Q&A with some of the district’s top health figures.

    Hosted by Bradford Foundation Trust, the live Q&A saw residents question conspiracy theories and express their fears about the Novavax vaccine.

    Guest speakers not only included well-known health experts such as Professor John Wright and Professor Dinesh Saralaya but also Hassan Joudi from the Muslim Council of Britain and Islamic scholar Mufti Amjad M. Mohammed.

    It set out to understand mistrust and provide answers to rumours about the vaccine that are widely spread and unchallenged on social media.

    With mixed results.

    https://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/18880863.bradford-vaccine-trial-needs-bame-volunteers/

    A top Bradford doctor has urged more volunteers from black, Asian and minority ethnic backgrounds (BAME) to sign up to a major vaccine trial.

    Professor Dinesh Saralaya said there had been a “disappointing” response and moved to address rumours people may have heard around the vaccine.

    Prof Saralaya is a Brahmin IIRC.

  72. @Anonymous
    Steve:

    What is the basis for your claim that Covid is worse than the flu (or a bad flu)?

    Replies: @Old Prude, @Polynikes

    Cootie 19 has killed a lot more small businesses than the flu. So there.

    It has also, from my observation killed more small buisnesses than people. It has also caused Mrs Prude to drink and eat and argue to excess. The flu never did that…

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    @Old Prude

    OP, I can't believe that you haven't LOLed for this gem. Good luck with Mrs.Prude...a chubby wife with a drinking problem who finds fault with everything. Stay safe. Take walks. Buy a pet.

  73. @Anon
    @John Achterhof


    I can’t wait for the races to begin to get dressed up in my racer outfit
     
    You'd look good in Lycra shorts. Super Sexy. Can I private message you, Mr hot stuff?

    Replies: @John Achterhof

    The odds are long, but if you’re a good looking young lady feel free.

  74. @JohnnyWalker123

    it would have been better, but if you put all your money into Lotto tickets and you win
     
    Epstein seems to have done something like that.

    Hidden Epstein Records Indicate He ‘Won’ an $41 Million Oklahoma Lottery Jackpot Payout
     
    https://www.winterwatch.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Epstein-the-lotto-winner.jpg

    On July 2, 2008 — just one day after convicted sex offender Jeffery Epstein started to serve an 18-month jail term in Florida as Inmate No. W35755 — his New Mexico “financial planning company,” called Zorro Trust, won the Oklahoma Power Lottery payout of $41.3 million and ultimately collected nearly $30 million in after tax winnings.

    Jeffrey Epstein’s, “New Mexico” spread in his black book identifies a column as Epstein, Jeffrey, Zorro Ranch, with a phone listing for Brice & Karen. The very same Brice M. Gordon, who is a manager of Zorro Trust.
     
    https://www.winterwatch.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/rhdu7hwoxjf31-600x267.png

    Only in cartoon world would it be believable that a so-called “sophisticated investor” who typically is looking to scalp every arbitrage and every basis point instead tosses money at awful-odds lotteries. This stinks to high heaven.

    This heist was facilitated by “computer glitch”” the day of the public drawing on July 2, 2008.
     
    https://www.winterwatch.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Capture-22-600x323.png

    TLDR Summary:

    -Jeffrey Epstein won $41 million in the 2008 Oklahoma lotto.
    -Lotto is a good way to get rich.
    -Invest all your money in buying Lotto tickets and you, too, could get really "lucky."
    -A computer "glitch" might spontaneously happen in your favor.

    Replies: @Hypnotoad666, @kaganovitch, @Old Prude

    Running Powerball would be (is?) a great way for covert ops (Mossad?) to get ready money…

    • Replies: @Muggles
    @Old Prude


    Running Powerball would be (is?) a great way for covert ops (Mossad?) to get ready money…
     
    Yes, about as likely as Mossad running Ft. Knox.

    While I read of one state lottery (Iowa?) where the insiders managed to rig payoffs, that is otherwise unknown. Also, the group in Iowa got quickly caught.

    These lotteries do hire math consultants to review drawing results. So far, so good.

    I doubt if the Jewish bureaucrats who run Mossad think lotteries are a way to get rich quick.

    However, it was interesting to learn that Voltaire "got rich" or substantially increased his wealth by playing the then brand new French national lottery. It had many design flaws which he and his partners quickly exploited. The French king soon fired his treasurer and killed the lottery.
  75. @Julian of Norwich
    Another way of looking at these results would be to use the data to estimate the difference in the incidence of infection that would result from the mass administration of this particular vaccine.

    In approximate terms, the proportion infected in the experimental group was 0.073%, the proportion in the control group was 1.233%, and the difference in proportions infected was 1.16%. Hence, the results suggest that, under current conditions, mass vaccination would reduce the incidence of infection by 1.16%.

    Having said this, by my estimation, the Confidence Interval for the difference in proportions infected is CI= 1.16 (-1.54 to 3.36). Since the interval includes the zero value the observed difference between experimental and control groups is not statistically significant.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @John Achterhof, @candid_observer, @utu, @AnotherDad

    “Hence, the results suggest that, under current conditions, mass vaccination would reduce the incidence of infection by 1.16%.”

    Nah, that’s not how an infectious epidemic works. It doesn’t rise to 1.16% infected and then just stop.

    Against this, your either winning or losing. Let’s try winning.

    • Replies: @kihowi
    @Steve Sailer

    When Americans start using war metaphors against a non-human enemy, I know the problem is about to be solved.

    Replies: @Hypnotoad666

  76. @James B. Shearer
    @Hypnotoad666

    "Then how come we don’t have a vaccine for the “common cold,” which I understand is just a number of coronavirus strains? Serious question."

    Some common colds are caused by coronaviruses. Most are caused by other viruses. Since common colds aren't very serious the cost benefit of developing a vaccine that would only prevent a small fraction of them never seemed favorable.

    Replies: @TTSSYF

    We also don’t have vaccines to prevent infection with HIV or herpesviruses. They mutate too frequently — it’s like chasing a wizard. Same with the annual flu shot, which is effective, at best, only about 65% of the time. There are all kinds of therapeutics for the common cold. I have little doubt that, if an annual shot could be developed for it that was at least as effective as the annual flu shot is, it would be on the market. The cost would be made up in volume.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @TTSSYF


    We also don’t have vaccines to prevent infection with HIV or herpesviruses.
     
    Bzzzt! (Chickenpox vaccine.)

    They mutate too frequently — it’s like chasing a wizard. Same with the annual flu shot, which is effective, at best, only about 65% of the time.
     
    It all depends on what our adaptive immune system latches onto, is it parts of the virus that can mutate frequently, or are they "conserved." An analogy for enzymes is a lock into which a key must precisely fit, change the lock too much and it doesn't work, and "the virus can't virus."

    So we have many "eternal" vaccines against viruses that mutate rapidly, and a lot more rapidly than the cornaviruses, which have an imperfect proofreading mechanism that's unique in RNA viruses. See previous comments about there being too many virus types for a complete vaccine for the common cold to be feasible. HIV I have no informed opinions about, but I have read a credible claim is has ways to hide out from the immune system, and it is after all the cause of "acquired immune deficiency syndrome."

    Replies: @TTSSYF

    , @gcochran
    @TTSSYF

    We do have vaccines for some herpesviruses. Chickenpox/shingles, for example. While we're working on others.

    Replies: @TTSSYF

  77. @Rockford Tyson
    @Steve Sailer

    Well, Steve, considering that the vast majority of the anti-vaxers are white, and conservative, methinks you might be pushing it with the whole race-baiting. Good luck convincing whites of midwestern red states to take the vaccine.

    Replies: @TTSSYF, @That Would Be Telling

    You and others with so much contempt for conservative whites in flyover country should give it a rest. Your labeling of conservative whites who are adopting a “wait-and-see” attitude as being “anti-vaxers” is on a par with disparaging those of us with a less than favorable outlook on where this economy and country are headed and take what we believe are reasonable measures to protect our lives and wealth as “preppers.” It isn’t Mr. Sailer who’s the race-baiter.

    • Agree: Kylie
    • Replies: @Rockford Tyson
    @TTSSYF

    I am not picking on conservative whites. I am just pointing out the hypocrisy of Sailer questioning whether black people will accept being vaccinated by the "white man's vaccine" when the majority of people that refuse to be vaccinated are white.

    I agree, and I won't be taking the vaccine until a thorough meta-analysis on chronic effects is made. I will give it at least one year.

    Replies: @TTSSYF

  78. I’m no microbiologist, but it’s my understanding that this new class of vaccine contains genetic material of some kind. Could it ultimately prove to be carcinogenic? Probably. Does anyone care? Probably not.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @VivaLaMigra


    I’m no microbiologist [or virologist], but it’s my understanding that this new class of vaccine contains genetic material of some kind.
     
    Not precisely new in that all live virus vaccines "contain genetic material," that's how they achieve high quality immunization. All of them use that material to hijack some number of your cells to make more copies of themselves for the old fashioned attenuated viruses, or lots of copies of I'm assuming a variety of proteins for modern viral vector vaccines, including one or more targeted proteins from the real virus, and for the mRNA viruses, exactly one protein.

    This presents the body with a very good simulation of the real disease, and all things being equal results in a very thorough immune system response, including the killing of cells making the target protein.

    I've read in these last few months that killed virus and protein only vaccines don't provide such a broad immunity, which stands to reason. We can take the Salk type killed virus polio vaccine as an example, it only protects the recipient from getting a paralytic infection, he can absolutely get a normal? gut infection, and pass the wild type virus on to other people (it's almost entirely a fecal-oral route disease).

    Could it ultimately prove to be carcinogenic? Probably. Does anyone care? Probably not.
     
    On what do you base this theory? The body is constantly being presented with viruses "with genetic material," and I'm sure you got sick with a number of examples of the common cold and "stomach flu" while you were growing up. Why would these particularly precise mRNA (that's the "genetic material") vaccines qualitatively add to that burden?
    , @Thoughts
    @VivaLaMigra

    Molecular Mimicry and autoimmune disorders are the bigger problem

    If some of your liver cells look a bit like the spike protein, then your T-Cells may eat your liver

    Just hope none of your cells bare resemblance to the spike protein!

    , @Jack D
    @VivaLaMigra

    If the new mRNA vaccines make you uncomfortable because they contain"genetic material" (they shouldn't and they won't give you cancer) then the Astra-Zeneca vaccine (and the Russian vaccine) is based on a different technology. It contains a (genetically altered) cold virus that has been reprogrammed to make the Covid spike protein. Of course a virus is also a kind of "genetic material" but since humans have been getting common colds for millions of years without getting cancer from them, you should rest easy.

    "Genetic material" sounds scary but it isn't. Your body is designed to search out and destroy foreign genetic material. Whatever the vaccine is, your body is going to attack it and clear it from your system in a few days. All that will be left are the antibodies against whatever proteins the vaccine generates which will continue to circulate (no one knows for how long) and protect you from real Covid.

  79. @Steve Sailer
    @Julian of Norwich

    "Hence, the results suggest that, under current conditions, mass vaccination would reduce the incidence of infection by 1.16%."

    Nah, that's not how an infectious epidemic works. It doesn't rise to 1.16% infected and then just stop.

    Against this, your either winning or losing. Let's try winning.

    Replies: @kihowi

    When Americans start using war metaphors against a non-human enemy, I know the problem is about to be solved.

    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666
    @kihowi


    When Americans start using war metaphors against a non-human enemy, I know the problem is about to be solved.
     
    You're either with the virus or against it.
  80. @Hypnotoad666
    @That Would Be Telling


    In our favor, coronaviruses have a proofreading mechanism unique to RNA viruses.
     
    Then how come we don't have a vaccine for the "common cold," which I understand is just a number of coronavirus strains? Serious question.

    I thought it was because they were constantly mutating. But you say they are actually genetically stable.

    Replies: @James B. Shearer, @That Would Be Telling, @AnotherDad, @Jack D

    In our favor, coronaviruses have a proofreading mechanism unique to RNA viruses.

    Then how come we don’t have a vaccine for the “common cold,” which I understand is just a number of coronavirus strains? Serious question.

    It’s at least 8 families or subfamilies of viruses including the flu, with over 200 distinct types. Four “normal” human retroviruses are thought to cause only 15% of the cases of “the common cold.”

    I thought it was because they were constantly mutating. But you say they are actually genetically stable.

    “Embrace the healing power of ‘and’.”

  81. @Anonymous
    Blacks might as well trust the “white man’s vaccine”, because I’m quite certain, that there will not be, a “black man’s vaccine .” Is this really where we are now? If people are only going to use things invented by their own race, there’s going to be a lot of desperate people running around with nothing.

    Replies: @Lockean Proviso, @Hannah Katz, @Nicholas Stix

    I suppose they could wait for a vaccine that will be developed in Zimbabwe or Zambia or maybe even by the scholars in Haiti. Let them choose.

    To give them some confidence, or something, here is an article about the Ugandan space program.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2069222/Not-exactly-NASA-Ugandan-space-chief-builds-test-craft-mothers-yard-says-shuttle-orbit-2015.html

  82. @kaganovitch
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Well, it would explain how he suddenly morphed into David Souter.

    Replies: @tyrone, @Lot

    That, and those two blond haired blue eyed children from “South America”(wink,wink)

  83. @Erik Sieven
    "A big unanswered question is whether these vaccines protect not only the recipients from severe symptoms, which they apparently do, quite well, but also protect the unvaccinated from being infected by vaccine recipients with no or only mild symptoms."
    I don´t understand why Modern and Biontech have not included weekly PCR-testing in their study. Somebody who is infected will in most cases show a positive test at least for a week, so testing everyone once per week would be enough to catch almost all positive infections. So they could know whether they have as many asymptomatic cases in the Vaccine-arm as in the Placebo-arm or whether this number is higher in the Vaccine-arm. And thus they would know whether the vaccine only helps against getting ill or whether it also help against getting infected (and being able to infect others). Maybe I am forgetting something but this should have cost probably less then 20 million Dollar. In this contest a negligible sum of money.

    Replies: @U. Ranus, @Erik Sieven

    The specificity of these tests is known, so this would be a mere statistical problem, wouldn’t it?

  84. @aleksander
    I don't get Steve on this one. No mRNA vaccine has ever been used in humans before. Its effects are unknown. What about potential autoimmunity? What about fatalities. Who pays? Hint: it's NOT Moderna.

    OK, so we have a study with a few participants over a few months. Science? Right......

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @The King is a Fink

    I don’t get Steve on this one. No mRNA vaccine has ever been used in humans before. Its effects are unknown.

    But unpredictable? And have the predictions been borne out starting with the run in parallel animal and Phase I human testing?

    They have a tremendous advantage in being very much like live virus vaccines, particularly the newer “replication deficient” ones that can’t make more copies of themselves in your body, while being much simpler in only introducing one sequence of genetic code into the cells it hijacks, to make only one protein, a stabilized version of the infamous spike.

    The only thing that’s new and exotic about them is their lipid protection, which is similar to that of enveloped viruses like the coronaviruses, the envelope being a bit of cell membrane, a lipid bi-layer. So in terms of general vaccine technology, only one new variable, and our bodies obviously have a great deal of machinery to handle lipids, plus see the toxicologist’s maxim, “the dose makes the poison.”

    What about potential autoimmunity? What about fatalities. Who pays? Hint: it’s NOT Moderna.

    The former is certainly possible, the latter is certain, when you give vaccines to tens, hundreds of millions or billions, you absolutely know some people will be maimed and killed by them; see also peanuts. It’s all about risk/reward trade-offs.

    And like others, you’re ignoring the criminal court system, if Moderna engages in that level of malfeasance. We also should check to see exactly to whom the civil liability immunity extends, how much beyond individuals who took the vaccine. It should include states, AG stands for Aspiring Governor after all.

    OK, so we have a study with a few participants over a few months. Science? Right……

    Yeah, SCIENCE!!! Which believes the vast majority of bad vaccine side effects happen in the first month and half, so the gate turned out not to be efficacy, but two months of data from half of those who got the vaccines. This data is enough to apply for a FDA Emergency Use Authorization (EUA), which is just the beginning of the process. An EUA is good for giving it to limited populations, like “essential workers,” and the very most vulnerable.

    More time, these Phase III trials last for two years as I think I saw the Phase II do, more data, including those who get it under the EUA, and the FDA will consider approving it for the general population. Or subsets, presumably not those under 18 unless they’re severely at risk. Moderna is now mooting a Phase III test on adolescents, I presume officially for herd immunity, but COVID-19 is killing or making severely ill some people below 18. Again, the FDA will be making risk/reward calculations if they approve it for a lower age cohort.

  85. @aleksander
    I don't get Steve on this one. No mRNA vaccine has ever been used in humans before. Its effects are unknown. What about potential autoimmunity? What about fatalities. Who pays? Hint: it's NOT Moderna.

    OK, so we have a study with a few participants over a few months. Science? Right......

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @The King is a Fink

    Agree. Also it just me or do these results seem to good to be true for a treatment produced in such a short period of time?

    Didn’t another article a few days ago state that the vaccine does not confer immunity, it simply mitigates the symptoms? Which doesn’t really make it a vaccine unless I’m mistaken.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @The King is a Fink


    Agree. Also it just me or do these results seem to good to be true for a treatment produced in such a short period of time?
     
    They would if we hadn't been working on coronavirus vaccines for a couple of decades. SARS shocked the world, and MERS, which has a camel reservoir and thus is still with us proved SARS was not a one off. So for example a lab in Saint Fauci's institute first figured out a solution to the RSV vaccine problem, then a solution to that for SARS/MERS type spike proteins, and told Moderna and I'm sure others exactly what modified spike protein to use.

    Now we get into the modern vaccine technology of mRNA and viral vectors. The former are trivially made to order, and Moderna had their vaccine candidate within two days of the initial publication of sequences of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that produces the COVID-19 disease. The viral vector vaccines can also be made to order pretty quickly assuming you have a platform to begin with, like Janssen's which they've used for an Ebola vaccine. Replace some of the DNA in the virus vector with DNA that codes for the spike protein and you have a vaccine candidate.

    The mRNA companies, seeing as how this was an emergency and all, and Moderna at least having a few years of experience with them, none public though, Phase I trials don't have to be reported to the FDA, then took a gamble and started animal testing and human Phase I testing in parallel. More risky for the very few human participants, only 45 for Moderna, but it paid off fantastically.

    Another thing that slows down a lot of vaccine development is researchers having to write grants applications, wait for one of them to be approved, and then do the next block of study, and repeat the process until they think they have a good candidate. At the other end, human testing is expensive, for Phase III trials of 30,000 or more people we're talking a billion dollars or more, so drug companies normally do extra investigation to judge if it's worth trying a Phase III trial, and that poor researcher previously mentioned first has to get their serious attention. Here there was no doubt, and many other advantages, like a very large pool of altruistic volunteers for the trials.

    Another minor detail is that the work so far is only good enough for a FDA Emergency Use Authorization (EUA), which if granted in 17+ days will only allow the use of the vaccine on the very highest priority people. Much more data, from those people as well as the trials which run for more than a year will be needed before the FDA grants wider approval for general populations.

    Didn’t another article a few days ago state that the vaccine does not confer immunity, it simply mitigates the symptoms? Which doesn’t really make it a vaccine unless I’m mistaken.

     

    Again, note that we're only at the Emergency Use Authorization stage.

    The results are only a mitigation of the symptoms if they're truly below symptomatic, if enough of the the subjects were diligent in following their instructions, they were for example taking their temperatures every day, and otherwise on the lookout for even the slightest of symptoms for the purposes of calling in and maybe getting checked out. They also get called like every week as I recall for one trial; all this is part of how the costs of a Phase III trial get so high, it's a "high touch" operation.

    We also have reason to believe based on looking at their blood for immune system responses they're getting a real immunization like those who recovered from the wild type virus (minus a reaction to the nucleocapsid protein), but it'll take more time for the Phase III trials to prove that. As well as if it prevents a well vaccinated individual from passing the virus to others.
    , @Jack D
    @The King is a Fink


    Didn’t another article a few days ago state that the vaccine does not confer immunity, it simply mitigates the symptoms? Which doesn’t really make it a vaccine unless I’m mistaken.
     
    What you said makes no sense - the way that the vaccine prevents you from getting sick is that it confers immunity. If it prevents you from getting sick, then it's a vaccine.

    What they don't know (yet) is whether the level of immunity is such that you might be asymptomatically infectious and still able to pass the disease to others. This is possible but very doubtful. People who write articles have lots of column inches to fill up (and TV networks have lots of air time) which they like to fill up with idle speculations like this. Our lack of knowledge creates a void which can be filled with all sorts of bloviating speculation. This is unfortunate because people who are anti-vax or just confused seize upon these speculations as if they were sure things.

    Sure it is POSSIBLE that being vaccinated could allow you to be an asymptomatic carrier (a "Typhoid Mary") for a few days but it's not bloody likely. If you are not getting sick it's probably because your immune system has killed the virus before it can reproduce in large numbers and you are probably not shedding much if any virus. We'll know for sure eventually but if I had to bet, based upon the high effectiveness the vaccines have shown so far, for most people getting vaccinated will mean that if you are later exposed to Covid, not only will you not get sick but you won't be a carrier either. Remember that the vaccine is only 95% effective - 5% of the vaccinated will still get sick if later exposed because the vaccine did not provoke enough of an immune response. Maybe it will turn out that another 5% will have enough immunity not to get sick themselves but will be carriers for a few days. If we can get enough people vaccinated to confer herd immunity, this won't make any difference - eventually the virus stops circulating in the community so you won't be exposed to it in the first place.

    Replies: @Libre

  86. @Rockford Tyson
    @Steve Sailer

    Well, Steve, considering that the vast majority of the anti-vaxers are white, and conservative, methinks you might be pushing it with the whole race-baiting. Good luck convincing whites of midwestern red states to take the vaccine.

    Replies: @TTSSYF, @That Would Be Telling

    considering that the vast majority of the anti-vaxers are white, and conservative

    Citation Needed. Especially since one epidemiology technique for dealing with them is to draw circles of a certain radius centered on Whole Food stores. See also the Kennedy who’s a leading anti-vax figure … OK, by today’s standards JFK would be a Literally Worse Than Hitler Nazi, but what about this guy?

    • Replies: @Rockford Tyson
    @That Would Be Telling

    Most anti-vaxers, like most people who are into government conspiracy theories, tend to vote Republican. I never thought someone would ask a citation for that, because I thought it was common knowledge. How many Manhattan liberals have been implicated in fcampaigning against the evil dangers of vaccines?

  87. @gcochran
    @JohnnyWalker123

    The next mutation that materially changes the factors recognized by the immune system - most mutations don't do that.

    Replies: @U. Ranus, @tyrone

    Or the next gain of function…..such a splendid weapon must be used again….it’s like shooting dodo birds.

  88. Anon[200] • Disclaimer says:
    @Lockean Proviso
    @Anonymous

    Maybe the legacy media can find a black lab worker at one of the vaccine makers and promote the idea that they are the actual creator of the vaccine, it having been stolen from them by white scientists. Netflix could make a movie about it, "Black Antibodies.". Whatever it takes to reassure blacks that the vaccine is actually theirs so that they will take it when they're placed at the front of the line.

    Replies: @Anon, @Alan Mercer

    Maybe the legacy media can find a black lab worker at one of the vaccine makers and promote the idea that they are the actual creator of the vaccine, it having been stolen from them by white scientists. Netflix could make a movie about it, “Black Antibodies.”. Whatever it takes to reassure blacks that the vaccine is actually theirs so that they will take it when they’re placed at the front of the line.

    Hahaa! But in this day and age I could see nationwide protests and looting based on getting all the royalties to Mr. Black Antibody, who hints that it might be a big payday for the black community since he is feeling charitable. The legacy media would buy into it.

    • Replies: @Lockean Proviso
    @Anon

    Well, at least f the money gets to blacks then it would get spent pretty quickly on locally purchased things like rims, home entertainment, jewelry, restaurants, and hairstyles instead of put into an offshore bank account or parked in a stock portfolio. Maybe passing out cash to blacks who would then spend it would turn out to be a good economic stimulus plan. Just make sure to include automatic tips into restaurant bills so that wait staff don't miss out on the gravy train. I wouldn't be surprised if this economic rationale for reparations has been mooted among the elites. I don't like it but look for the silver lining...

  89. @JimDandy
    Another big question, in my humble opinion, is what are the potential negative effects of a rushed vaccine? It raises interesting questions, such as: whites tend to be more willing to follow the established laws than black people, but is there a negative flipside to that, such as a greater willingness to obey in situations where they should be skeptical ?

    Replies: @Polynikes

    That is a fair question and the reason I, in the non risk group, will not be getting one. The national vaccine compensation fund was started after the failed 1976 swine flu vaccine. There are still unresolved legal claims from the 09 H1N1 vaccine. Both rushed out like this one.

    That isn’t to say that the vaccine isn’t worth it, especially for higher risk groups. But I see zero reason healthy children or even adults up to the age of ~55 should be rushing into this thing.

    • Replies: @JimDandy
    @Polynikes

    I agree with everything you say, although I think that relatively healthy people under the age of 70 should shun this vaccine. At least for now.

    , @epebble
    @Polynikes

    There are about 60+ million persons above 65. By the time those who are healthy, under 65, not having comorbidities or not a front line worker get a chance at the vaccine, there will be a lot (many months) of Phase 4 data (post marketing/mass use).

    , @Nico
    @Polynikes


    That isn’t to say that the vaccine isn’t worth it, especially for higher risk groups.
     
    Like you I won't be getting the vaccine as I am under 55, not obese, not diabetic and not with any serious cardiovascular history. Incidentally 90% of the hospitalized patients fit into one of the latter three categories with most belonging to more than one.

    It is past time we stopped torpedoing the economy for the sake of people who do not know to skip the fries and order a salad once in a while.
  90. @Anon
    @Bard of Bumperstickers


    People stupid enough to take this intravenous mass-assassination will improve the gene pool. FIFY
     
    Vaccines are generally intramuscular, sometimes intradermal.

    Replies: @Bard of Bumperstickers

    Yeah, that was the point, bud. Pardon the med-tech mistake typed two hours after bedtime, while trying to do something about this impending planet-wide manufactured Hegelian crisis. The point remains valid. It’s a murderous scam of unprecedented dimensions. Nuremberg 2.0 is called for, immediately.

    • Replies: @Muggles
    @Bard of Bumperstickers


    It’s a murderous scam of unprecedented dimensions. Nuremberg 2.0 is called for, immediately.
     
    Get this man some happy pills stat!

    Whatever you are eating or taking before bedtime, cut the dose!

    No one is saying getting a COVID vax is going to be mandatory. Relax, take deep breaths.

    A lot of these tough guys here complain about hysterical women, but yeesh. Just read what they write when they get the vapors!

    Replies: @J.Ross, @vhrm

    , @Anon
    @Bard of Bumperstickers

    Missing (aka ignoring) the point was the point.

  91. It’s panic city over “cases” and “positives” on the NY/CT airwaves — “hospitals dangerously close to capacity,” Cuomo intones — so why is my county hospital laying off 27 people, including 12 bedside nurses?

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Known Fact


    It’s panic city over “cases” and “positives” on the NY/CT airwaves — “hospitals dangerously close to capacity,” Cuomo intones — so why is my county hospital laying off 27 people, including 12 bedside nurses?
     
    If it was like the first wave, because either people who aren't in dire straits are avoiding your county hospital for "normal," "elective" and so on procedures and care, or your county isn't get hit hard right now?? Or it's enemy action against a county filled with deplorables? Cuomo did more than a little of that when he panicked. You'd have to partly dox yourself by telling us your county for us to be able to say more.

    All I can say is that for 150 miles in all directions my region's hospitals are at capacity with COVID-19 cases, and locally perhaps 100 or more healthcare workers are out sick, out taking care of sick family members, or are in quarantine after an exposure, probably from outside the hospital they work at (actually, those figures are about a week old now, I should see if I can get updates). And other parts of these hospital complexes have definitely permanently laid off staff, including one non-acute care specialist doctor who saved my life. On the other hand, I have a friend in ex-urban Maryland who's county hospital at last count is at half capacity or so for COVID-19.

    Replies: @Jack D

    , @botazefa
    @Known Fact


    so why is my county hospital laying off 27 people, including 12 bedside nurses?
     
    Covid hospital beds probably provide considerably less revenue than non-covid beds.

    Always good to follow the money.

    , @John Up North
    @Known Fact

    I went to an er here on the Northside of Chicago almost two weeks ago for severe back pain I was experiencing. There were probably seven or eight people in the waiting room. I was in and out of the er, having gotten an x-ray and a prescription, within about two hours.

    A couple of days before my er visit I saw an MD official from the same hospital on the boob tube saying they were filling up fast with Covid victims. What a crock of shite. Listening to the Chicago media one would think we are living in the 14th century amidst the Bubonic Plague.

    , @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @Known Fact

    Same here in NJ. Back in April there were over 8,300 patients hospitalized for Coronavirus at the peak, yesterday we had 2,900 in the hospital with COVID.

    Daily deaths are way below April when 300 were dying each day. So far in November daily deaths have been about 30 , similar to the daily deaths we had in July here in New Jersey.

    Replies: @Travis

  92. @Twinkie
    I mentioned on Unz that a close friend of mine (white, male, 50's) passed away from Covid several months ago (he had a comorbidity that was highly survivable without Covid). I learned in the last few weeks that two more of my friends have caught it. One (white, male, 60's) is doing fine. He only had mild symptoms and seems to have recovered. The other one (white, male, and 50's), whose family called me last week with the news, is NOT doing well and is currently at a hospital. He had substantial contacts with the local Hispanic population, which has been hit hard by the virus in my county.

    Today I sat down with my wife, who is the head of a local hospital, but not an immunologist nor a epidemiologist, and had a long conversation about Covid, the vaccines, and where the American society will be in a year. The conclusion we came to was that, once the vaccines turn out to be efficacious and (relatively) safe, we will still have lingering pockets of Covid floating about the segment of the population that refuses to be vaccinated and/or practices poor hygiene.

    So what we think might happen is that the pandemic will be fairly well-controlled once there is mass-vaccination, but we will never go back to the time before. Eventually, we hope that, with the vaccines and improve therapies, this will become like a flu - another coronavirus that has relatively mild symptoms and very low mortality among the vaccinated and those with good hygiene, but one that will continue to infect and kill a small, but significant segment of the infected and persist in pockets of the population. So even after the vaccines, we will likely continue to see some Americans wearing masks in public during "Covid season" (or all the time, I guess), like a traditional flu season in Hong Kong, Japan or Korea.

    What my wife and I both hope is that this was a big wakeup call for the country, and will lead to us having a much more robust and rapid-reacting, (true) public health system that is ready to deal with future pandemics, including an effective contact-tracing and quarantine system, a system that will be able to greatly minimize damage in lives and livelihood until vaccines and appropriate therapies can be developed.

    Replies: @peterike, @candid_observer, @botazefa, @vhrm, @AnotherDad

    Eventually, we hope that, with the vaccines and improve therapies, this will become like a flu – another coronavirus that has relatively mild symptoms and very low mortality among the vaccinated and those with good hygiene, but one that will continue to infect and kill a small, but significant segment of the infected and persist in pockets of the population.

    Your description of “eventually” is exactly what Covid is right now, without any vaccine — relatively mild symptoms, very low mortality, kills a small but significant segment of the infected. 100% accurate description of Covid RIGHT NOW.

    • Replies: @Twinkie
    @peterike


    Covid RIGHT NOW.
     
    Yes, after three waves on top of a lockdown. That’s not analogous to the flu in recent memory.
  93. OT:

    From the Newspeak Dictionary:

    “Cis liberty”: Having a “doctor” perform “gender reassignment surgery”, possibly while you are under the impression that it is “reversible”. A thing promoted by so-called “trans people”.

  94. @John Achterhof
    Outstanding. The sacrifices over 2020 to my standard of living have been significant, but with these encouraging developments it looks like the local 2021 triathlon season will be a go - and I can't wait for the races to begin to get dressed up in my racer outfit and play jock! It is time now for all of us to transition from cautious to exuberant optimism.

    Replies: @Anon, @peterike, @Buffalo Joe

    the local 2021 triathlon season

    Participation in endurance sports is a sign of psychological imbalance.

    • Replies: @Old Prude
    @peterike

    Ron needs a
    “Quite possibly so” button

  95. @TTSSYF
    @James B. Shearer

    We also don't have vaccines to prevent infection with HIV or herpesviruses. They mutate too frequently -- it's like chasing a wizard. Same with the annual flu shot, which is effective, at best, only about 65% of the time. There are all kinds of therapeutics for the common cold. I have little doubt that, if an annual shot could be developed for it that was at least as effective as the annual flu shot is, it would be on the market. The cost would be made up in volume.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @gcochran

    We also don’t have vaccines to prevent infection with HIV or herpesviruses.

    Bzzzt! (Chickenpox vaccine.)

    They mutate too frequently — it’s like chasing a wizard. Same with the annual flu shot, which is effective, at best, only about 65% of the time.

    It all depends on what our adaptive immune system latches onto, is it parts of the virus that can mutate frequently, or are they “conserved.” An analogy for enzymes is a lock into which a key must precisely fit, change the lock too much and it doesn’t work, and “the virus can’t virus.”

    So we have many “eternal” vaccines against viruses that mutate rapidly, and a lot more rapidly than the cornaviruses, which have an imperfect proofreading mechanism that’s unique in RNA viruses. See previous comments about there being too many virus types for a complete vaccine for the common cold to be feasible. HIV I have no informed opinions about, but I have read a credible claim is has ways to hide out from the immune system, and it is after all the cause of “acquired immune deficiency syndrome.”

    • Replies: @TTSSYF
    @That Would Be Telling

    Yes, for some herpesviruses, but not for herpes simplex I or II, nor for HIV.

  96. @Buffalo Joe
    How about the Feds put a billion dollars on the table for the first black scientist who develops a vaccine for blacks. Call it part of the reparations. And I meant a vaccine for Covid, not a vaccine to prevent blacks.

    Replies: @Alan Mercer

    For such a cash prize they would find a black lab tech and retcon. Her media handlers would get a piece. As Lockean Proviso suggests elsewhere in these comments, they may do it for free. Demoralization of the actual scientists and their ilk is its own reward.

    • Thanks: Buffalo Joe
  97. @Yancey Ward
    @Goatweed

    The really important delay was in not doing challenge trials with any of the vaccines. They had enough safety data 4 months ago to proceed with voluntary vaccinations by late August. The reason no challenge trials were done had nothing to do with ethical considerations- the trials were lengthened so that no vaccine would be available until after November 3rd. These people literally have blood on their hands to get Biden elected.

    Replies: @Steve Richter

    The reason no challenge trials were done had nothing to do with ethical considerations- the trials were lengthened so that no vaccine would be available until after November 3rd. These people literally have blood on their hands to get Biden elected.

    all true. But what does this say for the competence of Trump, his chief of staff, VP ??? The Trump people were not competent enough to study how the vaccine worked, see that they had a clear winner, hire PR people to make the case for trial volunteers. Trump did not counter what Fauci and his allies were doing to slow vaccine trials.

  98. @Julian of Norwich
    Another way of looking at these results would be to use the data to estimate the difference in the incidence of infection that would result from the mass administration of this particular vaccine.

    In approximate terms, the proportion infected in the experimental group was 0.073%, the proportion in the control group was 1.233%, and the difference in proportions infected was 1.16%. Hence, the results suggest that, under current conditions, mass vaccination would reduce the incidence of infection by 1.16%.

    Having said this, by my estimation, the Confidence Interval for the difference in proportions infected is CI= 1.16 (-1.54 to 3.36). Since the interval includes the zero value the observed difference between experimental and control groups is not statistically significant.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @John Achterhof, @candid_observer, @utu, @AnotherDad

    In approximate terms, the proportion infected in the experimental group was 0.073%, the proportion in the control group was 1.233%, and the difference in proportions infected was 1.16%. Hence, the results suggest that, under current conditions, mass vaccination would reduce the incidence of infection by 1.16%.

    Having said this, by my estimation, the Confidence Interval for the difference in proportions infected is CI= 1.16 (-1.54 to 3.36). Since the interval includes the zero value the observed difference between experimental and control groups is not statistically significant.

    I’m no expert in the field but the relevant analysis of the data seems to me to consist in the rate of infection of control group being 17 times higher than the rate of infection of experimental group.

    Did you stay at a Holiday Inn last night, or what?

  99. @VivaLaMigra
    I'm no microbiologist, but it's my understanding that this new class of vaccine contains genetic material of some kind. Could it ultimately prove to be carcinogenic? Probably. Does anyone care? Probably not.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Thoughts, @Jack D

    I’m no microbiologist [or virologist], but it’s my understanding that this new class of vaccine contains genetic material of some kind.

    Not precisely new in that all live virus vaccines “contain genetic material,” that’s how they achieve high quality immunization. All of them use that material to hijack some number of your cells to make more copies of themselves for the old fashioned attenuated viruses, or lots of copies of I’m assuming a variety of proteins for modern viral vector vaccines, including one or more targeted proteins from the real virus, and for the mRNA viruses, exactly one protein.

    This presents the body with a very good simulation of the real disease, and all things being equal results in a very thorough immune system response, including the killing of cells making the target protein.

    I’ve read in these last few months that killed virus and protein only vaccines don’t provide such a broad immunity, which stands to reason. We can take the Salk type killed virus polio vaccine as an example, it only protects the recipient from getting a paralytic infection, he can absolutely get a normal? gut infection, and pass the wild type virus on to other people (it’s almost entirely a fecal-oral route disease).

    Could it ultimately prove to be carcinogenic? Probably. Does anyone care? Probably not.

    On what do you base this theory? The body is constantly being presented with viruses “with genetic material,” and I’m sure you got sick with a number of examples of the common cold and “stomach flu” while you were growing up. Why would these particularly precise mRNA (that’s the “genetic material”) vaccines qualitatively add to that burden?

  100. our side should make the case for the free market. No need for FDA to have authority to prevent drugs from being sold. Without FDA, there would be certification companies that would be paid by drug companies to certify the safety and efficacy of their products. Product liability insurance providers would oversee how the products they insure were manufactured and distributed. Individuals should be free to research a vaccine and be inoculated at their own risk.

    • Replies: @botazefa
    @Steve Richter


    Without FDA, there would be certification companies that would be paid by drug companies to certify the safety and efficacy of their products
     
    You already have your wish as it is clear that the FDA is in bed with the drug industry. If you don't like the FDA, you'd like your solution even less.
  101. OT, I happened to stumble on this:

    »It was the wedding of the year in the Hasidic world. More than 10,000 guests arrived at the Sanz Hasidic headquarters in Netanya to celebrate the wedding of Meir Meshulam, son of Sanz Grand Rabbi Tzvi Elimelech Halberstam, the Klausenberger Rebbe of Netanya, to his cousin, Bracha Unsdorfer.«

    • Replies: @Thoughts
    @theo the kraut

    The mark of a strong culture

    Christians should learn a thing or two about how the Orthodox have handled Covid

    Doesn't mean you have to copy them per se, but giving credit where credit is due is important

    When you are a member of a strong culture (and there are 50 more 'yous' per you), you don't care so much about dying

    Would Steve or Scott Adams be as worried if they knew 50 more Baby Steve's and Baby Scott Adam's?

    Course not, because the work would go on

    , @Inquiring Mind
    @theo the kraut

    The look on the bride's face -- she just doesn't look turned on by that dude.

    Is that a Hassidic expression of a bride's public modesty, or with the celebrity status of Hubby, is she the Hassidic Princess Diana?

    , @Jack D
    @theo the kraut

    That video was from 2009.

    , @Dissident
    @theo the kraut


    It was the wedding of the year in the Hasidic world.
     
    That year being 2009, as Jack D pointed-out. You don't have to take his or my word for it, though; it's right there in the video title,

    Chosson Kallah Mitzvah Tanz - Sanz Klausenburg Wedding In Israel 2009 Part 27
     
    It should perhaps be noted, as well, that there a number of indications that this particular Hasidic sect (Sanz-Klausenburg) is among those that have taken the threat of the SARS-COV-2/Covid-19 far more seriously than many others. Examples include the funeral of the bridegroom's grandmother (limited to immediate family members) who died this past April at the age of 96; and public exhortations and chastisements delivered/issued to congregants by some of their top rabbis.

    Replies: @theo the kraut

  102. given the kinds of responses this topic always garners on Unz (and elsewhere) (but especially here), you should probably also ask whether white people (especially, ‘muricans) will accept the white/asian man’s vaccine.

    it’s especially funny given those same people will turn around in the next breath and drone on about how white men are supposedly the only ones whose behaviour is governed by reason and science…

  103. Why does it matter if the blacks trust it or not? Did I miss something here?

    • Agree: TTSSYF
  104. @Twinkie
    I mentioned on Unz that a close friend of mine (white, male, 50's) passed away from Covid several months ago (he had a comorbidity that was highly survivable without Covid). I learned in the last few weeks that two more of my friends have caught it. One (white, male, 60's) is doing fine. He only had mild symptoms and seems to have recovered. The other one (white, male, and 50's), whose family called me last week with the news, is NOT doing well and is currently at a hospital. He had substantial contacts with the local Hispanic population, which has been hit hard by the virus in my county.

    Today I sat down with my wife, who is the head of a local hospital, but not an immunologist nor a epidemiologist, and had a long conversation about Covid, the vaccines, and where the American society will be in a year. The conclusion we came to was that, once the vaccines turn out to be efficacious and (relatively) safe, we will still have lingering pockets of Covid floating about the segment of the population that refuses to be vaccinated and/or practices poor hygiene.

    So what we think might happen is that the pandemic will be fairly well-controlled once there is mass-vaccination, but we will never go back to the time before. Eventually, we hope that, with the vaccines and improve therapies, this will become like a flu - another coronavirus that has relatively mild symptoms and very low mortality among the vaccinated and those with good hygiene, but one that will continue to infect and kill a small, but significant segment of the infected and persist in pockets of the population. So even after the vaccines, we will likely continue to see some Americans wearing masks in public during "Covid season" (or all the time, I guess), like a traditional flu season in Hong Kong, Japan or Korea.

    What my wife and I both hope is that this was a big wakeup call for the country, and will lead to us having a much more robust and rapid-reacting, (true) public health system that is ready to deal with future pandemics, including an effective contact-tracing and quarantine system, a system that will be able to greatly minimize damage in lives and livelihood until vaccines and appropriate therapies can be developed.

    Replies: @peterike, @candid_observer, @botazefa, @vhrm, @AnotherDad

    Suppose it were true that Covid is here to stay, in the sense that, among certain groups, there will always be enough people who refuse to be vaccinated to keep it going.

    Here’s the thing: they would have chosen their own fate by that refusal. And, perhaps, if they were a group generally invulnerable to Covid, that may not be a bad fate anyway. If you’re under 40 and in good health, how irrational is it to refuse the vaccine? At most your decision might require those who are vulnerable to be vaccinated.

    In any case, the vaccines would offer them a clear way out if they really wanted it. It would be, or at least should be, hard to convince the rest of society to shut down or wear masks if they were so obviously responsible for their own plight.

    • Replies: @candid_observer
    @candid_observer

    In general, the very high efficacy of the vaccine changes the moral and societal calculus regarding taking the vaccine. Infectiousness becomes a minor issue when the efficacy is so high that those who are vulnerable are nearly fully protected by vaccination -- to the point that it is likely less damaging than an ordinary flu. If the efficacy were only, say, 60%, then their ongoing vulnerability even after vaccination would be an important issue.

  105. @John Achterhof
    Outstanding. The sacrifices over 2020 to my standard of living have been significant, but with these encouraging developments it looks like the local 2021 triathlon season will be a go - and I can't wait for the races to begin to get dressed up in my racer outfit and play jock! It is time now for all of us to transition from cautious to exuberant optimism.

    Replies: @Anon, @peterike, @Buffalo Joe

    John, meanwhile in California, San Mateo County has banned travel of over 150 miles. If you chose to travel that far then you MUST quarantine for 10 days. I wonder, how do you enforce this, why 150 miles and why 10 days? Good luck with your training. Probably will have to mask up for the actual event.

    • Replies: @John Achterhof
    @Buffalo Joe

    Yeah, the Covid mandates aren't all that enforceable. What is required for a society to do well against the virus, as the example of New Zealand demonstrates, is competent and broadly respected leadership and high social solidarity in complying with the guidelines. We Americans are lacking in both of these attributes. I'm hoping though that by the June start of the tri season here in MI most Americans will with the fantastic work of big pharma have immunity and we'll be off and running again.

  106. @candid_observer
    @Twinkie

    Suppose it were true that Covid is here to stay, in the sense that, among certain groups, there will always be enough people who refuse to be vaccinated to keep it going.

    Here's the thing: they would have chosen their own fate by that refusal. And, perhaps, if they were a group generally invulnerable to Covid, that may not be a bad fate anyway. If you're under 40 and in good health, how irrational is it to refuse the vaccine? At most your decision might require those who are vulnerable to be vaccinated.

    In any case, the vaccines would offer them a clear way out if they really wanted it. It would be, or at least should be, hard to convince the rest of society to shut down or wear masks if they were so obviously responsible for their own plight.

    Replies: @candid_observer

    In general, the very high efficacy of the vaccine changes the moral and societal calculus regarding taking the vaccine. Infectiousness becomes a minor issue when the efficacy is so high that those who are vulnerable are nearly fully protected by vaccination — to the point that it is likely less damaging than an ordinary flu. If the efficacy were only, say, 60%, then their ongoing vulnerability even after vaccination would be an important issue.

  107. @The King is a Fink
    @aleksander

    Agree. Also it just me or do these results seem to good to be true for a treatment produced in such a short period of time?

    Didn't another article a few days ago state that the vaccine does not confer immunity, it simply mitigates the symptoms? Which doesn't really make it a vaccine unless I'm mistaken.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Jack D

    Agree. Also it just me or do these results seem to good to be true for a treatment produced in such a short period of time?

    They would if we hadn’t been working on coronavirus vaccines for a couple of decades. SARS shocked the world, and MERS, which has a camel reservoir and thus is still with us proved SARS was not a one off. So for example a lab in Saint Fauci’s institute first figured out a solution to the RSV vaccine problem, then a solution to that for SARS/MERS type spike proteins, and told Moderna and I’m sure others exactly what modified spike protein to use.

    Now we get into the modern vaccine technology of mRNA and viral vectors. The former are trivially made to order, and Moderna had their vaccine candidate within two days of the initial publication of sequences of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that produces the COVID-19 disease. The viral vector vaccines can also be made to order pretty quickly assuming you have a platform to begin with, like Janssen’s which they’ve used for an Ebola vaccine. Replace some of the DNA in the virus vector with DNA that codes for the spike protein and you have a vaccine candidate.

    The mRNA companies, seeing as how this was an emergency and all, and Moderna at least having a few years of experience with them, none public though, Phase I trials don’t have to be reported to the FDA, then took a gamble and started animal testing and human Phase I testing in parallel. More risky for the very few human participants, only 45 for Moderna, but it paid off fantastically.

    Another thing that slows down a lot of vaccine development is researchers having to write grants applications, wait for one of them to be approved, and then do the next block of study, and repeat the process until they think they have a good candidate. At the other end, human testing is expensive, for Phase III trials of 30,000 or more people we’re talking a billion dollars or more, so drug companies normally do extra investigation to judge if it’s worth trying a Phase III trial, and that poor researcher previously mentioned first has to get their serious attention. Here there was no doubt, and many other advantages, like a very large pool of altruistic volunteers for the trials.

    Another minor detail is that the work so far is only good enough for a FDA Emergency Use Authorization (EUA), which if granted in 17+ days will only allow the use of the vaccine on the very highest priority people. Much more data, from those people as well as the trials which run for more than a year will be needed before the FDA grants wider approval for general populations.

    Didn’t another article a few days ago state that the vaccine does not confer immunity, it simply mitigates the symptoms? Which doesn’t really make it a vaccine unless I’m mistaken.

    Again, note that we’re only at the Emergency Use Authorization stage.

    The results are only a mitigation of the symptoms if they’re truly below symptomatic, if enough of the the subjects were diligent in following their instructions, they were for example taking their temperatures every day, and otherwise on the lookout for even the slightest of symptoms for the purposes of calling in and maybe getting checked out. They also get called like every week as I recall for one trial; all this is part of how the costs of a Phase III trial get so high, it’s a “high touch” operation.

    We also have reason to believe based on looking at their blood for immune system responses they’re getting a real immunization like those who recovered from the wild type virus (minus a reaction to the nucleocapsid protein), but it’ll take more time for the Phase III trials to prove that. As well as if it prevents a well vaccinated individual from passing the virus to others.

  108. @theo the kraut
    OT, I happened to stumble on this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O33gPFvFXvI

    »It was the wedding of the year in the Hasidic world. More than 10,000 guests arrived at the Sanz Hasidic headquarters in Netanya to celebrate the wedding of Meir Meshulam, son of Sanz Grand Rabbi Tzvi Elimelech Halberstam, the Klausenberger Rebbe of Netanya, to his cousin, Bracha Unsdorfer.«

    Replies: @Thoughts, @Inquiring Mind, @Jack D, @Dissident

    The mark of a strong culture

    Christians should learn a thing or two about how the Orthodox have handled Covid

    Doesn’t mean you have to copy them per se, but giving credit where credit is due is important

    When you are a member of a strong culture (and there are 50 more ‘yous’ per you), you don’t care so much about dying

    Would Steve or Scott Adams be as worried if they knew 50 more Baby Steve’s and Baby Scott Adam’s?

    Course not, because the work would go on

  109. @Julian of Norwich
    Another way of looking at these results would be to use the data to estimate the difference in the incidence of infection that would result from the mass administration of this particular vaccine.

    In approximate terms, the proportion infected in the experimental group was 0.073%, the proportion in the control group was 1.233%, and the difference in proportions infected was 1.16%. Hence, the results suggest that, under current conditions, mass vaccination would reduce the incidence of infection by 1.16%.

    Having said this, by my estimation, the Confidence Interval for the difference in proportions infected is CI= 1.16 (-1.54 to 3.36). Since the interval includes the zero value the observed difference between experimental and control groups is not statistically significant.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @John Achterhof, @candid_observer, @utu, @AnotherDad

    The actual rate of infection at a given time in the population sample is irrelevant. It could be 1% or 100% — what’s key is the proportion of those infected who are in the vaccine group vs the placebo group. The relevant statistics derive from the numbers in those groups.

    This the marvel of a randomized control trial, and we should all take off our hats to RA Fisher.

  110. @Anonymous
    Steve:

    What is the basis for your claim that Covid is worse than the flu (or a bad flu)?

    Replies: @Old Prude, @Polynikes

    According to the most recent CDC estimate of total infections, the Infection Fatality Rate would come in somewhere between .2-.3. An average flu year has an IFR of about .1, with a bad flu year (2018, most recently) being about .1-.3. So this is a little worse than a bad flu year, or about a once in a generation flu year.

    That’s also using the current ~200,000+ death toll which almost certainly contains a fair amount of “with” covid deaths along with the “from” covid deaths.

  111. @VivaLaMigra
    I'm no microbiologist, but it's my understanding that this new class of vaccine contains genetic material of some kind. Could it ultimately prove to be carcinogenic? Probably. Does anyone care? Probably not.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Thoughts, @Jack D

    Molecular Mimicry and autoimmune disorders are the bigger problem

    If some of your liver cells look a bit like the spike protein, then your T-Cells may eat your liver

    Just hope none of your cells bare resemblance to the spike protein!

  112. “A big unanswered question is whether these vaccines protect not only the recipients from severe symptoms, which they apparently do, quite well, but also protect the unvaccinated from being infected by vaccine recipients with no or only mild symptoms.”

    It almost definitely will. I don’t recall many examples of vaccines which protect the recipient but don’t prevent spread. One of the polio vaccines is like that but the circumstances and reasons are unusual.

    Early contact tracing studies indicated that asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic people were about a tenth as likely to spread it as those with moderate to severe symptoms. Makes sense, if you shed less virus and don’t cough, you are less likely to spread it.

    This doesn’t mean that the vaccine will make it impossible for person to spread it anymore than it makes it impossible for him to get it. At a societal level it will absolutely reduce the spread and if enough people get the shot, spread will be close enough to zero

  113. @Known Fact
    It's panic city over "cases" and "positives" on the NY/CT airwaves -- "hospitals dangerously close to capacity," Cuomo intones -- so why is my county hospital laying off 27 people, including 12 bedside nurses?

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @botazefa, @John Up North, @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    It’s panic city over “cases” and “positives” on the NY/CT airwaves — “hospitals dangerously close to capacity,” Cuomo intones — so why is my county hospital laying off 27 people, including 12 bedside nurses?

    If it was like the first wave, because either people who aren’t in dire straits are avoiding your county hospital for “normal,” “elective” and so on procedures and care, or your county isn’t get hit hard right now?? Or it’s enemy action against a county filled with deplorables? Cuomo did more than a little of that when he panicked. You’d have to partly dox yourself by telling us your county for us to be able to say more.

    All I can say is that for 150 miles in all directions my region’s hospitals are at capacity with COVID-19 cases, and locally perhaps 100 or more healthcare workers are out sick, out taking care of sick family members, or are in quarantine after an exposure, probably from outside the hospital they work at (actually, those figures are about a week old now, I should see if I can get updates). And other parts of these hospital complexes have definitely permanently laid off staff, including one non-acute care specialist doctor who saved my life. On the other hand, I have a friend in ex-urban Maryland who’s county hospital at last count is at half capacity or so for COVID-19.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @That Would Be Telling

    Covid has really spiked in my suburban Philly county. The number of daily cases recorded is much much higher than the previous April peak, despite the fact that people are supposed to be wearing masks everywhere. When we had far fewer cases in April, people were much more panicked about it but I guess you can only stay in a panic state for so long.

    The number of deaths has not kept up with the rise in cases. During the last wave they were recording up to 60 deaths/day. Then during the summer lull it fell to zero 0r at most 1/day. Now they are back up to as many as 4 per day, but this is nowhere near the previous peak despite there being many more cases.

    Has the disease become less dangerous? Are there better treatments available? Are people getting attenuated cases because they were wearing masks and got a smaller dose of the virus? Has the disease already burned thru the most vulnerable populations so those getting it now are less likely to die from it? I am glad for the fact that this is not killing as many folks, but what is the explanation?

    Replies: @MGB, @Old Prude, @AnotherDad, @prosa123, @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia, @Redman

  114. @VivaLaMigra
    I'm no microbiologist, but it's my understanding that this new class of vaccine contains genetic material of some kind. Could it ultimately prove to be carcinogenic? Probably. Does anyone care? Probably not.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Thoughts, @Jack D

    If the new mRNA vaccines make you uncomfortable because they contain”genetic material” (they shouldn’t and they won’t give you cancer) then the Astra-Zeneca vaccine (and the Russian vaccine) is based on a different technology. It contains a (genetically altered) cold virus that has been reprogrammed to make the Covid spike protein. Of course a virus is also a kind of “genetic material” but since humans have been getting common colds for millions of years without getting cancer from them, you should rest easy.

    “Genetic material” sounds scary but it isn’t. Your body is designed to search out and destroy foreign genetic material. Whatever the vaccine is, your body is going to attack it and clear it from your system in a few days. All that will be left are the antibodies against whatever proteins the vaccine generates which will continue to circulate (no one knows for how long) and protect you from real Covid.

  115. @That Would Be Telling
    @Known Fact


    It’s panic city over “cases” and “positives” on the NY/CT airwaves — “hospitals dangerously close to capacity,” Cuomo intones — so why is my county hospital laying off 27 people, including 12 bedside nurses?
     
    If it was like the first wave, because either people who aren't in dire straits are avoiding your county hospital for "normal," "elective" and so on procedures and care, or your county isn't get hit hard right now?? Or it's enemy action against a county filled with deplorables? Cuomo did more than a little of that when he panicked. You'd have to partly dox yourself by telling us your county for us to be able to say more.

    All I can say is that for 150 miles in all directions my region's hospitals are at capacity with COVID-19 cases, and locally perhaps 100 or more healthcare workers are out sick, out taking care of sick family members, or are in quarantine after an exposure, probably from outside the hospital they work at (actually, those figures are about a week old now, I should see if I can get updates). And other parts of these hospital complexes have definitely permanently laid off staff, including one non-acute care specialist doctor who saved my life. On the other hand, I have a friend in ex-urban Maryland who's county hospital at last count is at half capacity or so for COVID-19.

    Replies: @Jack D

    Covid has really spiked in my suburban Philly county. The number of daily cases recorded is much much higher than the previous April peak, despite the fact that people are supposed to be wearing masks everywhere. When we had far fewer cases in April, people were much more panicked about it but I guess you can only stay in a panic state for so long.

    The number of deaths has not kept up with the rise in cases. During the last wave they were recording up to 60 deaths/day. Then during the summer lull it fell to zero 0r at most 1/day. Now they are back up to as many as 4 per day, but this is nowhere near the previous peak despite there being many more cases.

    Has the disease become less dangerous? Are there better treatments available? Are people getting attenuated cases because they were wearing masks and got a smaller dose of the virus? Has the disease already burned thru the most vulnerable populations so those getting it now are less likely to die from it? I am glad for the fact that this is not killing as many folks, but what is the explanation?

    • Thanks: That Would Be Telling
    • Replies: @MGB
    @Jack D

    well, that's a good point. the case hysteria. it's a new spike, with record numbers of cases! no, it's not exactly. according to my state's govt. statistics, november 'cases' have reached the Spring spike numbers. the problem with this half-baked analysis, is that the number of tests are 5-6 fold higher in november than they were in april. total tests administered never reached 20k in the april/may 'spike', but have surpassed 120k in november based on a seven-day average according to the govt. graph. further, in the october/november time frame, the overwhelming majority of tests administered are repeat tests, i presume people double checking a positive test result, although i cannot confirm that from the open records i have seen, only anecdotally from people i know who have had the test. (i do not see any data on repeat tests in the april/may time frame, but presume that less tests were available, so that repeated tests were not nearly as frequent.) on november 23rd, over 120k tests were administered, about 90k of which were repeat tests, for example. hospitalizations and deaths during the november spike were nowhere near april/may numbers, confirmed deaths in november being about 1/5 of the april/may spike height. (in my state, 65% of deaths have occurred in nursing homes, and the average age of death is 81/82, slightly higher than the average life expectancy, with over 98% of decedents having an 'underlying condition', i presume meaning a comorbidity.) that's their numbers. i don't think that any of the numbers can be relied upon what with no uniform pcr protocol. lastly, the 'case' definition seems to be lacking. there is an IFR and a CFR, but the published case numbers don't seem to make any distinction between an infection and a case.

    , @Old Prude
    @Jack D

    More people getting tested

    , @AnotherDad
    @Jack D


    Has the disease become less dangerous? Are there better treatments available? Are people getting attenuated cases because they were wearing masks and got a smaller dose of the virus? Has the disease already burned thru the most vulnerable populations so those getting it now are less likely to die from it? I am glad for the fact that this is not killing as many folks, but what is the explanation?
     
    All of those could be in play.

    Since hysteria is what's on offer, there seems to be little appetite for our "public health authorities" (LOL) to figure anything out. The most glaring example--kids. Is there any point in the schools still being closed? (There are open down in our Florida neighborhood--neighbor friends have kids back in school. But still closed here in Insleeandia by order of Dear Leader.)


    Taking an absolute flyer--the simple explanation:

    In the spring, absolutely naive populations and rapid spread--especially in urban areas with public transit. (Remember Faucci told everyone they didn't need a mask. The common people should stop this silly masking up.) Cuomo cleaning out NY's frail nursing home populations with a good hard Covid "no discrimination!" shove.

    Now, almost everyone's system has now "seen" a virus or two. And people--vulnerable people especially--are generally more on top of--masking, distancing--making sure they don't a big dose. (My dad skipped out on Thanksgiving dinner and just swung by and chatted with everyone briefly outside.) Still takes out the "ready to go" elderly and immuno-compromised when it successfully reaches them, but it's reaching them now only in trickles. No-Cuomo.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @gcochran

    , @prosa123
    @Jack D

    Fatality rates among hospitalized patients are way down from what they were in the spring. The latest numbers I saw were froom 25% down to 7%. One possibility is that hospitals aren't putting virus patients on ventilators anywhere nearly as much, as those have been shown to be pretty much of a death sentence.

    , @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia
    @Jack D


    Has the disease become less dangerous? Are there better treatments available? Are people getting attenuated cases because they were wearing masks and got a smaller dose of the virus? Has the disease already burned thru the most vulnerable populations so those getting it now are less likely to die from it? I am glad for the fact that this is not killing as many folks, but what is the explanation?
     
    @AnotherDad said, all of above, except for "less dangerous" perhaps. It was likely never THAT dangerous for healthy people under 60. For the 80 year old with coronary disease? Potentially deadly in April, and equally deadly now, but then again, so is the ordinary flu or run of the mill pneumonia. Weak lung function makes you vulnerable all day and all of the night, to borrow from the great Ray Davies.

    Our pal Greg Cochran has reappeared in this thread, so I would remind everyone that he said at the very beginning of this insantiy "there is no substitute for victory." Of course, that's a silly statement, because (a) what does "victory" actually look like? and (b) however you define "victory," said "victory" has its costs, as surely as "defeat" does, however THAT is defined.

    As your statement suggests, there are a lot more questions that answers. Epidemiology is a very weak science--unlike, say, physics. There are no falsifiable testable hypotheses; the underlying "theories," if you can even call them that, are very weak. EVERYONE and I mean everyone is guessing, which is why the pontificators, whether they work on some White House task force or blog it out, are beyond annoying.

    We're nine months into this fiasco, and everyone is modeling, modeling modeling. The CDC the IHME, -- the spreadsheets and databases are working overtime. The "data" is supposed to tell us stuff, but what is it actually saying -- and even more important, how valid is it to begin with? No real scientist would be caught dead with data inputs he couldn't justify, but we make policy decisions after the equivalent of tossing grass in the air to see which way the wind blows.

    Are "cases" and "infectivity rates" the right metric? How many of the vaunted "deaths per million" are effectively weak elderly individuals who deaths have been simply "pushed forward" but 6-12 months, while the averaging out of life expectancy on the population scale shows little or no change?

    Sorry, for the rant, the whole thing just drives me nuts. We need Richard Feynman to come back from the dead and rip Anthony Fauci a new one. Or better yet, they can trade places.
    , @Redman
    @Jack D

    More tests. It’s hardly rocket science Jack.

  116. @Jack D
    @unit472

    Thalidomide was not approved by the FDA and that happened 60 years ago. This has nothing to do with testing standards in 2020.

    Vaccines are among the safest of all medicines in part because you only take them once or twice and not every day. There is a remote possibility that effects not observed during the trial will occur once the # of recipients is broadened from thousands to millions but only a very remote one and when balanced against the risks associated with the disease the vaccine wins.

    Replies: @botazefa, @That Would Be Telling

    Vaccines are among the safest of all medicine

    Even if that is true, the mRNA vaccines are a new type of vaccine. It’s a mistake to extend the halo of vaccine safety to mRNA vaccines at this time.

    • Replies: @MGB
    @botazefa

    MRNA and the super duper proprietary nano goop wrapping the vaccine engineered to trick your immune system not to obliterate the vaccine. Oh and it stops the vaccine from collapsing like a soufflé, just ask DARPA, I mean moderna. It’s a desert topping and a floor cleaner all in one.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  117. @The King is a Fink
    @aleksander

    Agree. Also it just me or do these results seem to good to be true for a treatment produced in such a short period of time?

    Didn't another article a few days ago state that the vaccine does not confer immunity, it simply mitigates the symptoms? Which doesn't really make it a vaccine unless I'm mistaken.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Jack D

    Didn’t another article a few days ago state that the vaccine does not confer immunity, it simply mitigates the symptoms? Which doesn’t really make it a vaccine unless I’m mistaken.

    What you said makes no sense – the way that the vaccine prevents you from getting sick is that it confers immunity. If it prevents you from getting sick, then it’s a vaccine.

    What they don’t know (yet) is whether the level of immunity is such that you might be asymptomatically infectious and still able to pass the disease to others. This is possible but very doubtful. People who write articles have lots of column inches to fill up (and TV networks have lots of air time) which they like to fill up with idle speculations like this. Our lack of knowledge creates a void which can be filled with all sorts of bloviating speculation. This is unfortunate because people who are anti-vax or just confused seize upon these speculations as if they were sure things.

    Sure it is POSSIBLE that being vaccinated could allow you to be an asymptomatic carrier (a “Typhoid Mary”) for a few days but it’s not bloody likely. If you are not getting sick it’s probably because your immune system has killed the virus before it can reproduce in large numbers and you are probably not shedding much if any virus. We’ll know for sure eventually but if I had to bet, based upon the high effectiveness the vaccines have shown so far, for most people getting vaccinated will mean that if you are later exposed to Covid, not only will you not get sick but you won’t be a carrier either. Remember that the vaccine is only 95% effective – 5% of the vaccinated will still get sick if later exposed because the vaccine did not provoke enough of an immune response. Maybe it will turn out that another 5% will have enough immunity not to get sick themselves but will be carriers for a few days. If we can get enough people vaccinated to confer herd immunity, this won’t make any difference – eventually the virus stops circulating in the community so you won’t be exposed to it in the first place.

    • Agree: AnotherDad
    • Thanks: The King is a Fink
    • Replies: @Libre
    @Jack D

    They've yet to provide any evidence of asymptomatic transmission. They keep saying could might maybe. Which of course makes sense because that's never been a concept until this year, as it is completely absurd. But they need it to justify their facediapers and shutdowns. Its a lazy copout for what is probably "we don't know" and people forgetting they sneezed yesterday.

  118. @Jack D
    @Goatweed

    In retrospect it would have been better, but if you put all your money into Lotto tickets and you win, that was a great investment in hindsight also. What if they gave it to 20 million people and then they found out that people who take the vaccine suffer severe side effects a month or two after they get the shot? By then it's too late to take it back. This is why we have drug trials.

    Replies: @unit472, @lysias

    We still don’t know what the effects will be just one year after taking the shot.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @lysias

    This is true but from other vaccines it is known that the vast majority of side effects appear no later than 45 days from taking the shot. While it is not completely impossible that there will be long term side effects it's highly unlikely. Anything is possible but when the possibilities are really really small you can make a decision that the risks are outweighed by the benefits. If you go out to your mailbox you might be hit by an out of control car but I still fetch the mail every day.

  119. @Twinkie
    I mentioned on Unz that a close friend of mine (white, male, 50's) passed away from Covid several months ago (he had a comorbidity that was highly survivable without Covid). I learned in the last few weeks that two more of my friends have caught it. One (white, male, 60's) is doing fine. He only had mild symptoms and seems to have recovered. The other one (white, male, and 50's), whose family called me last week with the news, is NOT doing well and is currently at a hospital. He had substantial contacts with the local Hispanic population, which has been hit hard by the virus in my county.

    Today I sat down with my wife, who is the head of a local hospital, but not an immunologist nor a epidemiologist, and had a long conversation about Covid, the vaccines, and where the American society will be in a year. The conclusion we came to was that, once the vaccines turn out to be efficacious and (relatively) safe, we will still have lingering pockets of Covid floating about the segment of the population that refuses to be vaccinated and/or practices poor hygiene.

    So what we think might happen is that the pandemic will be fairly well-controlled once there is mass-vaccination, but we will never go back to the time before. Eventually, we hope that, with the vaccines and improve therapies, this will become like a flu - another coronavirus that has relatively mild symptoms and very low mortality among the vaccinated and those with good hygiene, but one that will continue to infect and kill a small, but significant segment of the infected and persist in pockets of the population. So even after the vaccines, we will likely continue to see some Americans wearing masks in public during "Covid season" (or all the time, I guess), like a traditional flu season in Hong Kong, Japan or Korea.

    What my wife and I both hope is that this was a big wakeup call for the country, and will lead to us having a much more robust and rapid-reacting, (true) public health system that is ready to deal with future pandemics, including an effective contact-tracing and quarantine system, a system that will be able to greatly minimize damage in lives and livelihood until vaccines and appropriate therapies can be developed.

    Replies: @peterike, @candid_observer, @botazefa, @vhrm, @AnotherDad

    What my wife and I both hope is that this was a big wakeup call for the country

    Sure sure, Twinkie, but where does your mom stand on this? What about your sister? And where do Ellen and Oprah and the Church Lady stand?

    If you’re going to join the estrogen aristocracy, you need to dot all your i’s and cross all your t’s.

    Are you authorized to speak for all women?

    • LOL: Polynikes
  120. @TTSSYF
    @Rockford Tyson

    You and others with so much contempt for conservative whites in flyover country should give it a rest. Your labeling of conservative whites who are adopting a "wait-and-see" attitude as being "anti-vaxers" is on a par with disparaging those of us with a less than favorable outlook on where this economy and country are headed and take what we believe are reasonable measures to protect our lives and wealth as "preppers." It isn't Mr. Sailer who's the race-baiter.

    Replies: @Rockford Tyson

    I am not picking on conservative whites. I am just pointing out the hypocrisy of Sailer questioning whether black people will accept being vaccinated by the “white man’s vaccine” when the majority of people that refuse to be vaccinated are white.

    I agree, and I won’t be taking the vaccine until a thorough meta-analysis on chronic effects is made. I will give it at least one year.

    • Replies: @TTSSYF
    @Rockford Tyson

    You very clearly were criticizing conservative whites. How do you know that the majority of people who refuse to be vaccinated are white? It isn't even available yet to accept or refuse...and you yourself say you'll wait a year or so to see how it works out. What makes you so quick to assume that the majority of whites in flyover country aren't doing the same?

  121. It’s black people taking vaccines developed by white people that created the situation captured in Mr Sailer’s “worlds most important graph”. Perhaps we should not jump to conclusions.

  122. @That Would Be Telling
    @Rockford Tyson


    considering that the vast majority of the anti-vaxers are white, and conservative
     
    Citation Needed. Especially since one epidemiology technique for dealing with them is to draw circles of a certain radius centered on Whole Food stores. See also the Kennedy who's a leading anti-vax figure ... OK, by today's standards JFK would be a Literally Worse Than Hitler Nazi, but what about this guy?

    Replies: @Rockford Tyson

    Most anti-vaxers, like most people who are into government conspiracy theories, tend to vote Republican. I never thought someone would ask a citation for that, because I thought it was common knowledge. How many Manhattan liberals have been implicated in fcampaigning against the evil dangers of vaccines?

  123. @Known Fact
    It's panic city over "cases" and "positives" on the NY/CT airwaves -- "hospitals dangerously close to capacity," Cuomo intones -- so why is my county hospital laying off 27 people, including 12 bedside nurses?

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @botazefa, @John Up North, @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    so why is my county hospital laying off 27 people, including 12 bedside nurses?

    Covid hospital beds probably provide considerably less revenue than non-covid beds.

    Always good to follow the money.

  124. @Jack D
    @That Would Be Telling

    Covid has really spiked in my suburban Philly county. The number of daily cases recorded is much much higher than the previous April peak, despite the fact that people are supposed to be wearing masks everywhere. When we had far fewer cases in April, people were much more panicked about it but I guess you can only stay in a panic state for so long.

    The number of deaths has not kept up with the rise in cases. During the last wave they were recording up to 60 deaths/day. Then during the summer lull it fell to zero 0r at most 1/day. Now they are back up to as many as 4 per day, but this is nowhere near the previous peak despite there being many more cases.

    Has the disease become less dangerous? Are there better treatments available? Are people getting attenuated cases because they were wearing masks and got a smaller dose of the virus? Has the disease already burned thru the most vulnerable populations so those getting it now are less likely to die from it? I am glad for the fact that this is not killing as many folks, but what is the explanation?

    Replies: @MGB, @Old Prude, @AnotherDad, @prosa123, @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia, @Redman

    well, that’s a good point. the case hysteria. it’s a new spike, with record numbers of cases! no, it’s not exactly. according to my state’s govt. statistics, november ‘cases’ have reached the Spring spike numbers. the problem with this half-baked analysis, is that the number of tests are 5-6 fold higher in november than they were in april. total tests administered never reached 20k in the april/may ‘spike’, but have surpassed 120k in november based on a seven-day average according to the govt. graph. further, in the october/november time frame, the overwhelming majority of tests administered are repeat tests, i presume people double checking a positive test result, although i cannot confirm that from the open records i have seen, only anecdotally from people i know who have had the test. (i do not see any data on repeat tests in the april/may time frame, but presume that less tests were available, so that repeated tests were not nearly as frequent.) on november 23rd, over 120k tests were administered, about 90k of which were repeat tests, for example. hospitalizations and deaths during the november spike were nowhere near april/may numbers, confirmed deaths in november being about 1/5 of the april/may spike height. (in my state, 65% of deaths have occurred in nursing homes, and the average age of death is 81/82, slightly higher than the average life expectancy, with over 98% of decedents having an ‘underlying condition’, i presume meaning a comorbidity.) that’s their numbers. i don’t think that any of the numbers can be relied upon what with no uniform pcr protocol. lastly, the ‘case’ definition seems to be lacking. there is an IFR and a CFR, but the published case numbers don’t seem to make any distinction between an infection and a case.

  125. @peterike
    @John Achterhof


    the local 2021 triathlon season
     
    Participation in endurance sports is a sign of psychological imbalance.

    Replies: @Old Prude

    Ron needs a
    “Quite possibly so” button

  126. @Jack D
    @That Would Be Telling

    Covid has really spiked in my suburban Philly county. The number of daily cases recorded is much much higher than the previous April peak, despite the fact that people are supposed to be wearing masks everywhere. When we had far fewer cases in April, people were much more panicked about it but I guess you can only stay in a panic state for so long.

    The number of deaths has not kept up with the rise in cases. During the last wave they were recording up to 60 deaths/day. Then during the summer lull it fell to zero 0r at most 1/day. Now they are back up to as many as 4 per day, but this is nowhere near the previous peak despite there being many more cases.

    Has the disease become less dangerous? Are there better treatments available? Are people getting attenuated cases because they were wearing masks and got a smaller dose of the virus? Has the disease already burned thru the most vulnerable populations so those getting it now are less likely to die from it? I am glad for the fact that this is not killing as many folks, but what is the explanation?

    Replies: @MGB, @Old Prude, @AnotherDad, @prosa123, @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia, @Redman

    More people getting tested

  127. @Hypnotoad666
    @That Would Be Telling


    In our favor, coronaviruses have a proofreading mechanism unique to RNA viruses.
     
    Then how come we don't have a vaccine for the "common cold," which I understand is just a number of coronavirus strains? Serious question.

    I thought it was because they were constantly mutating. But you say they are actually genetically stable.

    Replies: @James B. Shearer, @That Would Be Telling, @AnotherDad, @Jack D

    Then how come we don’t have a vaccine for the “common cold,” which I understand is just a number of coronavirus strains? Serious question.

    The “common cold” is probably–currently–a few hundred different viruses. Most, i understand, are rhinoviruses. Coronaviruses, adenoviruses have smaller market share.

    My guess is over the next few decades you will start to see more mRNA viruses for “colds”. “Hey there’s a new rhinovirus strain that’s causing bad colds this winter … we’ve got a vaccine.”

    But there’s an obvious risk/reward deal with this. Most people would happily take–pay for, go get the jab–a vaccine that would knock out say all the rhinovirus colds. But going going strain for strain you need more motivation than just one strain of something that you may not get that gives you the sniffles for a week.

  128. @Anon
    @Charon


    Daily Mail features two recipients, one in Sweden and one in Australia
     
    And the "Australian" was probably chinese or indian.
    30% of "Australians" were born overseas.

    Replies: @Supply and Demand

    Australia has the weakest claim to being a white country in the entire Anglosphere. White Portuguese settlements in Angola are 200 years older than the first white settlement in Oz.

    • Replies: @sb
    @Supply and Demand

    New Zealand was the last Anglosphere country to have white settlement .
    ( although at that time it was seen as part of Australia or ,to be specific , New South Wales )

  129. Leading by example in New York…that ain’t 2 meter distancing Gubernator Andy. Not even close.

    https://nypost.com/2020/11/30/gov-cuomo-top-aides-brief-reporters-indoors-without-face-coverings/

    • Thanks: Dissident
  130. How do they determine that it works against severe cases? Don’t vaccines get administered before?

  131. OT: A fitting tribute to Weimar Collapse

    Nasdaq threatens 75% of listed companies with order to appoint women & LGBT or other ‘diverse’ directors to board – or else

    US stock exchange Nasdaq has warned listed companies they must appoint at least two “diverse” directors to their board – a ‘self-identified’ female and an “underrepresented minority” or LGBTQ person – or possibly face delisting.

    Those end-of-year company gangbangs are going to get better and better.

    Meanwhile:

    World’s most powerful radio telescope COLLAPSES in Puerto Rico, after decades of hunting alien signals from space

    The observatory had been closed since August, after an auxiliary cable snapped and tore a 100-foot gash in the dish. Following another cable breakage in early November, the NSF announced that its engineers were working on decommissioning the giant telescope.

    Prior to its series of mishaps, funding for the telescope had been steadily reduced over the past decade, despite protest from the scientific community.

    As this is going on:

    INBOX: Credit Suisse introduces the “LGBT-350”, a market-cap weighted basket of LGBT-inclusive companies.

    More like a basket case, right?

    • Replies: @S. Anonyia
    @El Dato

    Will probably just result in lots of trannies getting appointed.

  132. @Jack D
    @The King is a Fink


    Didn’t another article a few days ago state that the vaccine does not confer immunity, it simply mitigates the symptoms? Which doesn’t really make it a vaccine unless I’m mistaken.
     
    What you said makes no sense - the way that the vaccine prevents you from getting sick is that it confers immunity. If it prevents you from getting sick, then it's a vaccine.

    What they don't know (yet) is whether the level of immunity is such that you might be asymptomatically infectious and still able to pass the disease to others. This is possible but very doubtful. People who write articles have lots of column inches to fill up (and TV networks have lots of air time) which they like to fill up with idle speculations like this. Our lack of knowledge creates a void which can be filled with all sorts of bloviating speculation. This is unfortunate because people who are anti-vax or just confused seize upon these speculations as if they were sure things.

    Sure it is POSSIBLE that being vaccinated could allow you to be an asymptomatic carrier (a "Typhoid Mary") for a few days but it's not bloody likely. If you are not getting sick it's probably because your immune system has killed the virus before it can reproduce in large numbers and you are probably not shedding much if any virus. We'll know for sure eventually but if I had to bet, based upon the high effectiveness the vaccines have shown so far, for most people getting vaccinated will mean that if you are later exposed to Covid, not only will you not get sick but you won't be a carrier either. Remember that the vaccine is only 95% effective - 5% of the vaccinated will still get sick if later exposed because the vaccine did not provoke enough of an immune response. Maybe it will turn out that another 5% will have enough immunity not to get sick themselves but will be carriers for a few days. If we can get enough people vaccinated to confer herd immunity, this won't make any difference - eventually the virus stops circulating in the community so you won't be exposed to it in the first place.

    Replies: @Libre

    They’ve yet to provide any evidence of asymptomatic transmission. They keep saying could might maybe. Which of course makes sense because that’s never been a concept until this year, as it is completely absurd. But they need it to justify their facediapers and shutdowns. Its a lazy copout for what is probably “we don’t know” and people forgetting they sneezed yesterday.

  133. @Hypnotoad666
    @That Would Be Telling


    In our favor, coronaviruses have a proofreading mechanism unique to RNA viruses.
     
    Then how come we don't have a vaccine for the "common cold," which I understand is just a number of coronavirus strains? Serious question.

    I thought it was because they were constantly mutating. But you say they are actually genetically stable.

    Replies: @James B. Shearer, @That Would Be Telling, @AnotherDad, @Jack D

    which I understand is just a number of coronavirus strains?

    You understand wrong. There are 4 coronaviruses that together cause around 15% of human colds, the other 85% being cause by hundreds of other viruses. Using the same mRNA technology, they could probably create a vaccine for all 4 coronaviruses but this would only take care of 15% of colds. It costs maybe $1 billion to bring a vaccine to market. How many people would sign up for a vaccine that reduces the incidence of colds by 15%?

  134. @Jack D
    @That Would Be Telling

    Covid has really spiked in my suburban Philly county. The number of daily cases recorded is much much higher than the previous April peak, despite the fact that people are supposed to be wearing masks everywhere. When we had far fewer cases in April, people were much more panicked about it but I guess you can only stay in a panic state for so long.

    The number of deaths has not kept up with the rise in cases. During the last wave they were recording up to 60 deaths/day. Then during the summer lull it fell to zero 0r at most 1/day. Now they are back up to as many as 4 per day, but this is nowhere near the previous peak despite there being many more cases.

    Has the disease become less dangerous? Are there better treatments available? Are people getting attenuated cases because they were wearing masks and got a smaller dose of the virus? Has the disease already burned thru the most vulnerable populations so those getting it now are less likely to die from it? I am glad for the fact that this is not killing as many folks, but what is the explanation?

    Replies: @MGB, @Old Prude, @AnotherDad, @prosa123, @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia, @Redman

    Has the disease become less dangerous? Are there better treatments available? Are people getting attenuated cases because they were wearing masks and got a smaller dose of the virus? Has the disease already burned thru the most vulnerable populations so those getting it now are less likely to die from it? I am glad for the fact that this is not killing as many folks, but what is the explanation?

    All of those could be in play.

    Since hysteria is what’s on offer, there seems to be little appetite for our “public health authorities” (LOL) to figure anything out. The most glaring example–kids. Is there any point in the schools still being closed? (There are open down in our Florida neighborhood–neighbor friends have kids back in school. But still closed here in Insleeandia by order of Dear Leader.)

    Taking an absolute flyer–the simple explanation:

    In the spring, absolutely naive populations and rapid spread–especially in urban areas with public transit. (Remember Faucci told everyone they didn’t need a mask. The common people should stop this silly masking up.) Cuomo cleaning out NY’s frail nursing home populations with a good hard Covid “no discrimination!” shove.

    Now, almost everyone’s system has now “seen” a virus or two. And people–vulnerable people especially–are generally more on top of–masking, distancing–making sure they don’t a big dose. (My dad skipped out on Thanksgiving dinner and just swung by and chatted with everyone briefly outside.) Still takes out the “ready to go” elderly and immuno-compromised when it successfully reaches them, but it’s reaching them now only in trickles. No-Cuomo.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @AnotherDad


    The most glaring example–kids. Is there any point in the schools still being closed? (There are open down in our Florida neighborhood–neighbor friends have kids back in school. But still closed here in Insleeandia by order of Dear Leader.)
     
    You didn't know that an estimated 300 school employees have been killed by COVID-19!?!?!!! And that they're one of the most important factions in the Democratic Party? Like in previous years, about 1 out of 5 delegates to a presidential nominating (ha) convention?
    , @gcochran
    @AnotherDad

    "Now, almost everyone’s system has now “seen” a virus or two."

    Nope.

  135. @AnotherDad
    @Goatweed


    If Moderna had been allowed to design, produce and sell a vaccine without testing the vaccine, how many people would have died from the vaccine versus how many would have people would have died from the disease given eight months of production at 20 million doses of the vaccine?
     
    There's a contradiction at the heart of Xi virus hysteria:

    If this really is the killer plague of the millennium, you really ought to be kicking aside tedious bureaucracy and regulations and yes incurring some *risk* to get the vaccine out and halt this killer ASAP. (Centuries ago in various places people would actually get "vaccinated" with the less lethal form of smallpox variola-minor which still had a 1% chance of killing you!)

    But they have no interest in doing the risky things you'd do if this was actually deadly.

    Cause ... that's not what this hysteria is about. It's about
    -- our increasingly feminized risk aversion
    -- political control--enabling Big Sister--and expertism
    -- whacking small business, the independent and self-reliant ... people who vote wrong
    -- and most of all ... getting Trump

    When you actually look at the plague ... it's not real impressive.

    It was looking impressive briefly last spring while Cuomo was slaughtering the frail in New York's nursing homes under the rubric of "fighting discrimination"--a performance which wins him the Democrats plaudits and awards.

    But since then it's been an unimpressive cull of the "dry tinder" who were destined to go this year or in the next few. Beyond that it's a blip. They'll be lucky to peg even 10% excess deaths.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

    Replies: @utu, @Mr. Anon, @Hypnotoad666, @Captain Tripps, @Redman

    I know its only one data point, but it demonstrates how much noise is in the data collection in this strange year: wife friend of my in-laws got very sick in late October/early November; family pleaded with her to go to the hospital, but she refused; too afraid of catching COVID. She died two weeks later; kidney malfunction. how much of that fear of COVID was induced by consuming 24/7 media driven hysteria? We’ll never know, but it was a contributing factor.

  136. @Polynikes
    @JimDandy

    That is a fair question and the reason I, in the non risk group, will not be getting one. The national vaccine compensation fund was started after the failed 1976 swine flu vaccine. There are still unresolved legal claims from the 09 H1N1 vaccine. Both rushed out like this one.

    That isn’t to say that the vaccine isn’t worth it, especially for higher risk groups. But I see zero reason healthy children or even adults up to the age of ~55 should be rushing into this thing.

    Replies: @JimDandy, @epebble, @Nico

    I agree with everything you say, although I think that relatively healthy people under the age of 70 should shun this vaccine. At least for now.

  137. @theo the kraut
    OT, I happened to stumble on this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O33gPFvFXvI

    »It was the wedding of the year in the Hasidic world. More than 10,000 guests arrived at the Sanz Hasidic headquarters in Netanya to celebrate the wedding of Meir Meshulam, son of Sanz Grand Rabbi Tzvi Elimelech Halberstam, the Klausenberger Rebbe of Netanya, to his cousin, Bracha Unsdorfer.«

    Replies: @Thoughts, @Inquiring Mind, @Jack D, @Dissident

    The look on the bride’s face — she just doesn’t look turned on by that dude.

    Is that a Hassidic expression of a bride’s public modesty, or with the celebrity status of Hubby, is she the Hassidic Princess Diana?

  138. Moderna shares were up big yesterday, which was weird considering we knew about their vaccine’s effectiveness two weeks ago.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Dave Pinsen


    Moderna shares were up big yesterday, which was weird considering we knew about their vaccine’s effectiveness two weeks ago.
     
    What's turned out to be the gate for it and Pfizer/BioNTech is two months of safety data from half the vaccine arm's participants to be able to apply for an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA), which they did Monday the 30th. That's actually a very big thing, you need both in the "safe and effective" duo.

    Replies: @candid_observer

  139. @Julian of Norwich
    Another way of looking at these results would be to use the data to estimate the difference in the incidence of infection that would result from the mass administration of this particular vaccine.

    In approximate terms, the proportion infected in the experimental group was 0.073%, the proportion in the control group was 1.233%, and the difference in proportions infected was 1.16%. Hence, the results suggest that, under current conditions, mass vaccination would reduce the incidence of infection by 1.16%.

    Having said this, by my estimation, the Confidence Interval for the difference in proportions infected is CI= 1.16 (-1.54 to 3.36). Since the interval includes the zero value the observed difference between experimental and control groups is not statistically significant.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @John Achterhof, @candid_observer, @utu, @AnotherDad

    “the proportion infected in the experimental group was 0.073%, the proportion in the control group was 1.233%”

    These numbers are for T=3 months. If we set T to infinity all 15,000 in control group will get infected while only 15,000*(o.073/1.233)=888 will get infected in the vaccinated group which is 6% of 15,000.

    By vaccinating everybody you save 94% of population as opposed to not vaccinating anybody. However to save 94% of population you do not have to vaccinate everybody because the herd immunity will kick in at much lower level of vaccination prevalence and actually you may save more than 94%. This is true for a well mixed model. In not well mixed vaccinated-to-not-vaccinated population at say 70% prevalence local clusters of flare ups may happen like at libertarian conventions, bikers rallies and anti-vaxxer seances.

    • Replies: @Anon
    @utu

    @ “ local clusters of flare ups may happen like at libertarian conventions, bikers rallies and anti-vaxxer seances.”

    😂 damn I don’t have a bigger emoji

  140. @Polynikes
    @JimDandy

    That is a fair question and the reason I, in the non risk group, will not be getting one. The national vaccine compensation fund was started after the failed 1976 swine flu vaccine. There are still unresolved legal claims from the 09 H1N1 vaccine. Both rushed out like this one.

    That isn’t to say that the vaccine isn’t worth it, especially for higher risk groups. But I see zero reason healthy children or even adults up to the age of ~55 should be rushing into this thing.

    Replies: @JimDandy, @epebble, @Nico

    There are about 60+ million persons above 65. By the time those who are healthy, under 65, not having comorbidities or not a front line worker get a chance at the vaccine, there will be a lot (many months) of Phase 4 data (post marketing/mass use).

  141. @George
    First, it would be right decent of them to release the actual study instead of only the press release. It would also be nice if data was presented in a table.

    "30,000 participants included 196 cases of COVID-19, of which 30 cases were severe" one death

    From the cdc: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/flu.htm
    1 death in 15000 or 6.7 per 100,000 would be similar to past Influenza and pneumonia deaths of 18 per 100,000. Is that a lot?

    Mortality
    Influenza and pneumonia deaths

    Number of deaths: 59,120
    Deaths per 100,000 population: 18.1
    Cause of death rank: 8
    Source: National Vital Statistics System – Mortality Data (2018) via CDC WONDER

    Influenza

    Number of deaths: 11,164
    Deaths per 100,000 population: 3.4

    Replies: @epebble

    I have some questions on the design of tests too:

    1. Covid-19 is killing about 1,000 per day in a population of 330 million in U.S.

    2. = 1 per day per 330,000 population

    3. In 60 days, that will be 60 deaths.

    4. For a Placebo group of 15,000, over 60 days, that should be about 3 deaths

    5. But they saw only one death.

    6. Hence, they undersampled risk by about 66%

    It would have been better, if they had sampled risk group better (i.e. get 3 deaths in placebo group) and even better if test sample was 100,000 instead of 30,000 so as to get 10 deaths in (well sampled) placebo group. Then, they could have pointed out, look, our vaccine saves lives, by a factor of 90% (assuming only one person max in vaccinated group dies).

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @epebble


    4. For a Placebo group of 15,000, over 60 days, that should be about 3 deaths

    5. But they saw only one death.

    6. Hence, they undersampled risk by about 66%

    It would have been better, if they had sampled risk group better (i.e. get 3 deaths in placebo group)
     
    Besides these being very small numbers, one issue is see is limits to how sick a person can be and enroll in the study. By the time they're either starting the Phase III trial, or adding the more elderly and/or more sick, they have some idea of the basic side effect profile, but I assume "not enough" for many people. I would also assume if someone is quite sick, but through quarantine quality not judged at great immediate risk from COVID-19, to make an solid informed choice about taking the vaccine I'd want the trials and emergency vaccinations to have provided more data.

    There's also the critical PR aspect of this, they want absolutely no gratuitous deaths in the vaccine arm of the trial, that would at minimum delay all approvals for some time, and could kill an otherwise very good vaccine.

    and even better if test sample was 100,000 instead of 30,000 so as to get 10 deaths in (well sampled) placebo group.
     
    That would require time we've judged we don't have for the vaccines we can put on a really fast track, and a lot more money. That said, Janssen is very ambitious, trying a long term, higher risk (only one dose), high gain strategy to vaccinate one billion by the end of 2021, and is enrolling 60,000 people in their Phase III trial.
  142. @Daniel Williams
    Ever feel like if you were to organize your life around doing the opposite of what blacks generally do, you’d end up pretty successful?

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe

    Dan, or pretty normal, by most standards.

  143. @JohnnyWalker123
    So, once this vaccine is administered, there would be immunity until the next mutation occurs.

    Would that be correct to say?

    Replies: @gcochran, @That Would Be Telling, @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

    For a vaccine to work well, it has to do two things.

    First, the antibodies it generates has to target accessible protein formations on the virus. The antibody has to bind/lock onto a physical feature of the virus terrain. As a coronavirus, the Wuhan has very spiky spikes, so there’s room for the antibodies to slide in and get ahold of the virus at the spike (sounds faintly pornographic, no?).

    Second, the antibodies should target a “conserved” protein on the virus spike — that is, a protein confirmation that will remain constant, or constant enough, thorough multiple generations.

    All the vaccines under development do both those things. It’s not only likely that these vaccines will work against Corona-chan, but also against other variations of corona viruses.

    • Thanks: JohnnyWalker123
  144. @Jack D
    @That Would Be Telling

    Covid has really spiked in my suburban Philly county. The number of daily cases recorded is much much higher than the previous April peak, despite the fact that people are supposed to be wearing masks everywhere. When we had far fewer cases in April, people were much more panicked about it but I guess you can only stay in a panic state for so long.

    The number of deaths has not kept up with the rise in cases. During the last wave they were recording up to 60 deaths/day. Then during the summer lull it fell to zero 0r at most 1/day. Now they are back up to as many as 4 per day, but this is nowhere near the previous peak despite there being many more cases.

    Has the disease become less dangerous? Are there better treatments available? Are people getting attenuated cases because they were wearing masks and got a smaller dose of the virus? Has the disease already burned thru the most vulnerable populations so those getting it now are less likely to die from it? I am glad for the fact that this is not killing as many folks, but what is the explanation?

    Replies: @MGB, @Old Prude, @AnotherDad, @prosa123, @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia, @Redman

    Fatality rates among hospitalized patients are way down from what they were in the spring. The latest numbers I saw were froom 25% down to 7%. One possibility is that hospitals aren’t putting virus patients on ventilators anywhere nearly as much, as those have been shown to be pretty much of a death sentence.

  145. @Old Prude
    @Anonymous

    Cootie 19 has killed a lot more small businesses than the flu. So there.

    It has also, from my observation killed more small buisnesses than people. It has also caused Mrs Prude to drink and eat and argue to excess. The flu never did that...

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe

    OP, I can’t believe that you haven’t LOLed for this gem. Good luck with Mrs.Prude…a chubby wife with a drinking problem who finds fault with everything. Stay safe. Take walks. Buy a pet.

  146. @Jack D
    @That Would Be Telling

    Covid has really spiked in my suburban Philly county. The number of daily cases recorded is much much higher than the previous April peak, despite the fact that people are supposed to be wearing masks everywhere. When we had far fewer cases in April, people were much more panicked about it but I guess you can only stay in a panic state for so long.

    The number of deaths has not kept up with the rise in cases. During the last wave they were recording up to 60 deaths/day. Then during the summer lull it fell to zero 0r at most 1/day. Now they are back up to as many as 4 per day, but this is nowhere near the previous peak despite there being many more cases.

    Has the disease become less dangerous? Are there better treatments available? Are people getting attenuated cases because they were wearing masks and got a smaller dose of the virus? Has the disease already burned thru the most vulnerable populations so those getting it now are less likely to die from it? I am glad for the fact that this is not killing as many folks, but what is the explanation?

    Replies: @MGB, @Old Prude, @AnotherDad, @prosa123, @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia, @Redman

    Has the disease become less dangerous? Are there better treatments available? Are people getting attenuated cases because they were wearing masks and got a smaller dose of the virus? Has the disease already burned thru the most vulnerable populations so those getting it now are less likely to die from it? I am glad for the fact that this is not killing as many folks, but what is the explanation?

    said, all of above, except for “less dangerous” perhaps. It was likely never THAT dangerous for healthy people under 60. For the 80 year old with coronary disease? Potentially deadly in April, and equally deadly now, but then again, so is the ordinary flu or run of the mill pneumonia. Weak lung function makes you vulnerable all day and all of the night, to borrow from the great Ray Davies.

    Our pal Greg Cochran has reappeared in this thread, so I would remind everyone that he said at the very beginning of this insantiy “there is no substitute for victory.” Of course, that’s a silly statement, because (a) what does “victory” actually look like? and (b) however you define “victory,” said “victory” has its costs, as surely as “defeat” does, however THAT is defined.

    As your statement suggests, there are a lot more questions that answers. Epidemiology is a very weak science–unlike, say, physics. There are no falsifiable testable hypotheses; the underlying “theories,” if you can even call them that, are very weak. EVERYONE and I mean everyone is guessing, which is why the pontificators, whether they work on some White House task force or blog it out, are beyond annoying.

    We’re nine months into this fiasco, and everyone is modeling, modeling modeling. The CDC the IHME, — the spreadsheets and databases are working overtime. The “data” is supposed to tell us stuff, but what is it actually saying — and even more important, how valid is it to begin with? No real scientist would be caught dead with data inputs he couldn’t justify, but we make policy decisions after the equivalent of tossing grass in the air to see which way the wind blows.

    Are “cases” and “infectivity rates” the right metric? How many of the vaunted “deaths per million” are effectively weak elderly individuals who deaths have been simply “pushed forward” but 6-12 months, while the averaging out of life expectancy on the population scale shows little or no change?

    Sorry, for the rant, the whole thing just drives me nuts. We need Richard Feynman to come back from the dead and rip Anthony Fauci a new one. Or better yet, they can trade places.

  147. @AnotherDad
    @Jack D


    Has the disease become less dangerous? Are there better treatments available? Are people getting attenuated cases because they were wearing masks and got a smaller dose of the virus? Has the disease already burned thru the most vulnerable populations so those getting it now are less likely to die from it? I am glad for the fact that this is not killing as many folks, but what is the explanation?
     
    All of those could be in play.

    Since hysteria is what's on offer, there seems to be little appetite for our "public health authorities" (LOL) to figure anything out. The most glaring example--kids. Is there any point in the schools still being closed? (There are open down in our Florida neighborhood--neighbor friends have kids back in school. But still closed here in Insleeandia by order of Dear Leader.)


    Taking an absolute flyer--the simple explanation:

    In the spring, absolutely naive populations and rapid spread--especially in urban areas with public transit. (Remember Faucci told everyone they didn't need a mask. The common people should stop this silly masking up.) Cuomo cleaning out NY's frail nursing home populations with a good hard Covid "no discrimination!" shove.

    Now, almost everyone's system has now "seen" a virus or two. And people--vulnerable people especially--are generally more on top of--masking, distancing--making sure they don't a big dose. (My dad skipped out on Thanksgiving dinner and just swung by and chatted with everyone briefly outside.) Still takes out the "ready to go" elderly and immuno-compromised when it successfully reaches them, but it's reaching them now only in trickles. No-Cuomo.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @gcochran

    The most glaring example–kids. Is there any point in the schools still being closed? (There are open down in our Florida neighborhood–neighbor friends have kids back in school. But still closed here in Insleeandia by order of Dear Leader.)

    You didn’t know that an estimated 300 school employees have been killed by COVID-19!?!?!!! And that they’re one of the most important factions in the Democratic Party? Like in previous years, about 1 out of 5 delegates to a presidential nominating (ha) convention?

  148. @Julian of Norwich
    Another way of looking at these results would be to use the data to estimate the difference in the incidence of infection that would result from the mass administration of this particular vaccine.

    In approximate terms, the proportion infected in the experimental group was 0.073%, the proportion in the control group was 1.233%, and the difference in proportions infected was 1.16%. Hence, the results suggest that, under current conditions, mass vaccination would reduce the incidence of infection by 1.16%.

    Having said this, by my estimation, the Confidence Interval for the difference in proportions infected is CI= 1.16 (-1.54 to 3.36). Since the interval includes the zero value the observed difference between experimental and control groups is not statistically significant.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @John Achterhof, @candid_observer, @utu, @AnotherDad

    Some minds were not built for math.

  149. @Dave Pinsen
    Moderna shares were up big yesterday, which was weird considering we knew about their vaccine’s effectiveness two weeks ago.

    https://youtu.be/3K-ic-y57qc

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    Moderna shares were up big yesterday, which was weird considering we knew about their vaccine’s effectiveness two weeks ago.

    What’s turned out to be the gate for it and Pfizer/BioNTech is two months of safety data from half the vaccine arm’s participants to be able to apply for an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA), which they did Monday the 30th. That’s actually a very big thing, you need both in the “safe and effective” duo.

    • Replies: @candid_observer
    @That Would Be Telling

    I've gotta believe that another part of the rise was due to the 30-0 partition of severe cases between the placebo and vaccinated. It was only 10-0 before, and Pfizer's was 10-1.

    30-0 is a pretty big deal, entailing statistically that the true rate of reduction in severe cases is at least above 90%, and is probably well above.

  150. @Known Fact
    It's panic city over "cases" and "positives" on the NY/CT airwaves -- "hospitals dangerously close to capacity," Cuomo intones -- so why is my county hospital laying off 27 people, including 12 bedside nurses?

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @botazefa, @John Up North, @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    I went to an er here on the Northside of Chicago almost two weeks ago for severe back pain I was experiencing. There were probably seven or eight people in the waiting room. I was in and out of the er, having gotten an x-ray and a prescription, within about two hours.

    A couple of days before my er visit I saw an MD official from the same hospital on the boob tube saying they were filling up fast with Covid victims. What a crock of shite. Listening to the Chicago media one would think we are living in the 14th century amidst the Bubonic Plague.

    • Thanks: vhrm
  151. @Jack D
    @unit472

    Thalidomide was not approved by the FDA and that happened 60 years ago. This has nothing to do with testing standards in 2020.

    Vaccines are among the safest of all medicines in part because you only take them once or twice and not every day. There is a remote possibility that effects not observed during the trial will occur once the # of recipients is broadened from thousands to millions but only a very remote one and when balanced against the risks associated with the disease the vaccine wins.

    Replies: @botazefa, @That Would Be Telling

    Vaccines are among the safest of all medicines in part because you only take them once or twice and not every day.

    Another reason is that they demand a much higher margin of safety than treatments for someone who’s already sick, seeing as how they’re administrated to ostensibly healthy populations. That sick guy who may or will die unless some intervention is successful? You might be willing to take really big risks….

  152. @TTSSYF
    @James B. Shearer

    We also don't have vaccines to prevent infection with HIV or herpesviruses. They mutate too frequently -- it's like chasing a wizard. Same with the annual flu shot, which is effective, at best, only about 65% of the time. There are all kinds of therapeutics for the common cold. I have little doubt that, if an annual shot could be developed for it that was at least as effective as the annual flu shot is, it would be on the market. The cost would be made up in volume.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @gcochran

    We do have vaccines for some herpesviruses. Chickenpox/shingles, for example. While we’re working on others.

    • Replies: @TTSSYF
    @gcochran

    We don't have them for HIV, nor do we have them herpes simplex I or II.

  153. @AnotherDad
    @Jack D


    Has the disease become less dangerous? Are there better treatments available? Are people getting attenuated cases because they were wearing masks and got a smaller dose of the virus? Has the disease already burned thru the most vulnerable populations so those getting it now are less likely to die from it? I am glad for the fact that this is not killing as many folks, but what is the explanation?
     
    All of those could be in play.

    Since hysteria is what's on offer, there seems to be little appetite for our "public health authorities" (LOL) to figure anything out. The most glaring example--kids. Is there any point in the schools still being closed? (There are open down in our Florida neighborhood--neighbor friends have kids back in school. But still closed here in Insleeandia by order of Dear Leader.)


    Taking an absolute flyer--the simple explanation:

    In the spring, absolutely naive populations and rapid spread--especially in urban areas with public transit. (Remember Faucci told everyone they didn't need a mask. The common people should stop this silly masking up.) Cuomo cleaning out NY's frail nursing home populations with a good hard Covid "no discrimination!" shove.

    Now, almost everyone's system has now "seen" a virus or two. And people--vulnerable people especially--are generally more on top of--masking, distancing--making sure they don't a big dose. (My dad skipped out on Thanksgiving dinner and just swung by and chatted with everyone briefly outside.) Still takes out the "ready to go" elderly and immuno-compromised when it successfully reaches them, but it's reaching them now only in trickles. No-Cuomo.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @gcochran

    “Now, almost everyone’s system has now “seen” a virus or two.”

    Nope.

  154. It just gets better and better! A 94.1% effective vaccine is PHENOMENAL. Bravo!

    And yet…… my GenX immune system is 295 times better than this fake vax in the War On Sniffles. (My previous maths viz the various and assorted fakezines were off by one order of magnitude – totes my bad).

    Womp womp.

    Oh, and outside New York’s murder-by-ventilator campaign back in March-April, total deaths in the US and Europe are average. The maths definitively prove it’s a hoax. Exponential Unz wept.

  155. @Mr. Anon
    @AnotherDad

    Tsk-tsk, you have angered Utu, our resident COVID-hysteric. Why, he'll get spittle all over the mask he probably wears while sitting alone in his den in front of his computer.

    Replies: @William Badwhite

    while sitting alone in his den in front of his computer.

    in some country other than the US, weirdly spending his days constantly chiming in on US-specific issues…

    • Replies: @Bert
    @William Badwhite

    Consider his options: Live in a moldy basement apartment in a grimy town in Moldova and work from home for Open Societies, or live in a moldy basement apartment in a grimy town in Moldova and spend weekdays working in a grimy factory inhaling toxic fumes. Seems to me that he's making the best of his situation.

    Replies: @utu

  156. anon[265] • Disclaimer says:

    OT

    NASDAQ exchange to demand social engineering on company boards to be listed.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-proposes-new-listing-standards-requiring-board-diversity-and-disclosure-2020-12-01

    If approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission, all companies listing on the Nasdaq exchange will have to publicly disclose “consistent, transparent diversity statistics” regarding their board of directors. And most Nasdaq companies would have to have, or explain why they don’t have, at least two “diverse” directors, including one female and one who self-identifies as either “an underrepresented minority” or LGBTQ+. “Nasdaq’s purpose is to champion inclusive growth and prosperity to power stronger economies,” said Chief Executive Adena Friedman.

    Norway already requires 50% female Board of Directors (BOD’s).

    I’m sure only good things will result from this. Such as companies being taken private.

  157. @Known Fact
    It's panic city over "cases" and "positives" on the NY/CT airwaves -- "hospitals dangerously close to capacity," Cuomo intones -- so why is my county hospital laying off 27 people, including 12 bedside nurses?

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @botazefa, @John Up North, @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    Same here in NJ. Back in April there were over 8,300 patients hospitalized for Coronavirus at the peak, yesterday we had 2,900 in the hospital with COVID.

    Daily deaths are way below April when 300 were dying each day. So far in November daily deaths have been about 30 , similar to the daily deaths we had in July here in New Jersey.

    • Replies: @Travis
    @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    nearly all of the present surge in cases is among 20-60 year olds, but this component of surge has had negligible impact on hospitalizations and even less on deaths (almost non-existent in this cohort)...The main factor in reduced hospitalizations and deaths in present surge appears to be lower COVID case rates among over-80s thus far as compared to spring...the focus of media on cases, while ignoring the much lower death rates in fall recurrence, is needlessly feeding anxiety.

  158. @That Would Be Telling
    @Dave Pinsen


    Moderna shares were up big yesterday, which was weird considering we knew about their vaccine’s effectiveness two weeks ago.
     
    What's turned out to be the gate for it and Pfizer/BioNTech is two months of safety data from half the vaccine arm's participants to be able to apply for an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA), which they did Monday the 30th. That's actually a very big thing, you need both in the "safe and effective" duo.

    Replies: @candid_observer

    I’ve gotta believe that another part of the rise was due to the 30-0 partition of severe cases between the placebo and vaccinated. It was only 10-0 before, and Pfizer’s was 10-1.

    30-0 is a pretty big deal, entailing statistically that the true rate of reduction in severe cases is at least above 90%, and is probably well above.

  159. @William Badwhite
    @Mr. Anon


    while sitting alone in his den in front of his computer.
     
    in some country other than the US, weirdly spending his days constantly chiming in on US-specific issues...

    Replies: @Bert

    Consider his options: Live in a moldy basement apartment in a grimy town in Moldova and work from home for Open Societies, or live in a moldy basement apartment in a grimy town in Moldova and spend weekdays working in a grimy factory inhaling toxic fumes. Seems to me that he’s making the best of his situation.

    • LOL: William Badwhite
    • Replies: @utu
    @Bert

    Lots of room in cellars and basements in Moldova. Plenty of wine and no mold.

    The World’s Largest Wine Cellar is in Moldova
    https://www.thevintagenews.com/2019/03/12/wine-cellar-in-moldova/

    Replies: @Captain Tripps

  160. @Bardon Kaldian
    At this level of knowledge/ignorance, I'd rather skip those three vaccines & use Russian & Chinese. Moderna & Pfizer have too many questions about them, and all that RNA-for life stuff is too suspicious.
    I'd rather wait.

    Replies: @Travis, @MEH 0910

    most will have to wait until the FDA approves it. Will probably not get approved by the FDA for another 12 months. The FDA may grant Emergency Use Authorizations later this month. But this will be restricted to those who face serious or life-threatening diseases or conditions. COVID is not life threatening for 90% of the population. So those under the age of 60 will not have access to this vaccine until the FDA grants full approval. I suppose those who work in hospitals will be granted access to the vaccine next year, but the average person will not be granted emergency use of these vaccines.

  161. @Twinkie
    I mentioned on Unz that a close friend of mine (white, male, 50's) passed away from Covid several months ago (he had a comorbidity that was highly survivable without Covid). I learned in the last few weeks that two more of my friends have caught it. One (white, male, 60's) is doing fine. He only had mild symptoms and seems to have recovered. The other one (white, male, and 50's), whose family called me last week with the news, is NOT doing well and is currently at a hospital. He had substantial contacts with the local Hispanic population, which has been hit hard by the virus in my county.

    Today I sat down with my wife, who is the head of a local hospital, but not an immunologist nor a epidemiologist, and had a long conversation about Covid, the vaccines, and where the American society will be in a year. The conclusion we came to was that, once the vaccines turn out to be efficacious and (relatively) safe, we will still have lingering pockets of Covid floating about the segment of the population that refuses to be vaccinated and/or practices poor hygiene.

    So what we think might happen is that the pandemic will be fairly well-controlled once there is mass-vaccination, but we will never go back to the time before. Eventually, we hope that, with the vaccines and improve therapies, this will become like a flu - another coronavirus that has relatively mild symptoms and very low mortality among the vaccinated and those with good hygiene, but one that will continue to infect and kill a small, but significant segment of the infected and persist in pockets of the population. So even after the vaccines, we will likely continue to see some Americans wearing masks in public during "Covid season" (or all the time, I guess), like a traditional flu season in Hong Kong, Japan or Korea.

    What my wife and I both hope is that this was a big wakeup call for the country, and will lead to us having a much more robust and rapid-reacting, (true) public health system that is ready to deal with future pandemics, including an effective contact-tracing and quarantine system, a system that will be able to greatly minimize damage in lives and livelihood until vaccines and appropriate therapies can be developed.

    Replies: @peterike, @candid_observer, @botazefa, @vhrm, @AnotherDad

    So what we think might happen is that the pandemic will be fairly well-controlled once there is mass-vaccination, but we will never go back to the time before.

    It looks like in the EU he rate of daily new cases peaked 3 weeks ago already and it’s on quick decline. Deaths per day seems to be peaking now (it’s been stable for about a week).

    UK new cases peaked around 2 weeks ago and are in slow decline. Deaths are fairly stable.

    In the US the past week’s numbers are unreliable due to Thanksgiving, but the “hardest hit” third wave states peaked around 3 weeks ago in new cases per day are a down by half since then.
    US overall may or may not have peaked… looks like CA and NY are still on the way up (slowly) so maybe not.

    (all via https://91-divoc.com )

    The point being that wave 3 is already receding in the EU and maybe even the US.

    The development of these vaccines had been a technological and institutional marvel, but its clinical impact will be modest in 2020 and early 2021.

    It’ll prevent the late 2021 aftershocks, I guess, but those n-th waves will be smaller echoes anyway.

    If have hoped that the lockdown overreaction around inoculate us against similar panic for Sars-cov3 whenever it comes, but so far it seems most people have been drawing the lesson that arbitrary government lockdowns are a good and desirable thing…
    maybe reflection after the fact in the months and years to come will lead to a reassessment.

  162. @Twinkie
    I mentioned on Unz that a close friend of mine (white, male, 50's) passed away from Covid several months ago (he had a comorbidity that was highly survivable without Covid). I learned in the last few weeks that two more of my friends have caught it. One (white, male, 60's) is doing fine. He only had mild symptoms and seems to have recovered. The other one (white, male, and 50's), whose family called me last week with the news, is NOT doing well and is currently at a hospital. He had substantial contacts with the local Hispanic population, which has been hit hard by the virus in my county.

    Today I sat down with my wife, who is the head of a local hospital, but not an immunologist nor a epidemiologist, and had a long conversation about Covid, the vaccines, and where the American society will be in a year. The conclusion we came to was that, once the vaccines turn out to be efficacious and (relatively) safe, we will still have lingering pockets of Covid floating about the segment of the population that refuses to be vaccinated and/or practices poor hygiene.

    So what we think might happen is that the pandemic will be fairly well-controlled once there is mass-vaccination, but we will never go back to the time before. Eventually, we hope that, with the vaccines and improve therapies, this will become like a flu - another coronavirus that has relatively mild symptoms and very low mortality among the vaccinated and those with good hygiene, but one that will continue to infect and kill a small, but significant segment of the infected and persist in pockets of the population. So even after the vaccines, we will likely continue to see some Americans wearing masks in public during "Covid season" (or all the time, I guess), like a traditional flu season in Hong Kong, Japan or Korea.

    What my wife and I both hope is that this was a big wakeup call for the country, and will lead to us having a much more robust and rapid-reacting, (true) public health system that is ready to deal with future pandemics, including an effective contact-tracing and quarantine system, a system that will be able to greatly minimize damage in lives and livelihood until vaccines and appropriate therapies can be developed.

    Replies: @peterike, @candid_observer, @botazefa, @vhrm, @AnotherDad

    Eventually, we hope that, with the vaccines and improve therapies, this will become like a flu

    Twinkie, that’s more or less what i thought back in the spring.

    But with this vaccine, that’s not what i see happening now. Mainly because the vaccine is so effective, and because coronaviruses have this replication proof-reading and so are much less mutation prone than the flu viruses. (My thanks to the iSteve commenters who explained this to me.)

    It is these continual antigen shifts that keep the flu popping. I’ve been exposed to the Asian (H2N2) the Hong Kong (H3N2), the Swine (H1N1) and had the ’76 swine jab as well as plenty of seasonal shots aimed at this or that strain over the years. But the flu has kicked my ass a few times.

    In contrast, once i get my jab for this (like Moderna, but will take whatever) i should be done with it. (If it turns out a booster every 10 or 20 is called for, i’ll get that.)

    Yeah, this will wizzle on in pockets. And old folks whose immune systems have crashed, will die from it, as they do the flu. Though, i suspect less so, because even the nursing homes hiring the Somali attendants will have them vaccination.

    Basically the vaccine is going to really put the whoop ass on this thing. If it doesn’t mutate, it’s playlist is going to only be anti-vaxers and those with poor immune systems. The measles–just way less virulent.

    • Replies: @Twinkie
    @AnotherDad


    Basically the vaccine is going to really put the whoop ass on this thing.
     
    I hope so. We’ll find out one way or another.
    , @That Would Be Telling
    @AnotherDad


    It is these continual antigen shifts that keep the flu popping.
     
    The key detail to that, which gets around mutation rates, is the body's ability to latch onto some part of the virus that is "conserved." For an enzyme, imagine a lock that a key has to fit more or less precisely into. Change the lock too much, and it can't function, "the virus won't virus." So for a lot of RNA viruses without the unique for RNA viruses coronavirus proofreading mechanism, we have "eternal" vaccines because they attack conserved regions.

    For the flu, our bodies simply don't latch onto anything conserved, either in a real wild type flu infection, or our vaccines to date.

    Another note on mutation in this context: it's ecological, potentially many organisms and variants of them are fighting for their niches.

    To take the flues you've experienced, H2N2 displaced the H1N1 family that had been dominate since 1918. Over the next decade, it was under increasing selection pressure to transmit more effectively, so I assume it "mutated," adapted better to humans (a dead or stuck in bed human doesn't transmit it well). It displaced H1N1 in the first place because it transmitted much better because the population was naive, had never seen this variation.

    H3N2, a smaller change, displaced H2N2 a decade later. Again, the population was naive to newer variant, and it transmitted much more effectively than H2N2. Then some #$*@#([email protected]& who had stored a circa 1947-57 H1N1 strain let it escape from their lab around 1976. I assume it didn't make much headway against those over 23 years of age (found that number on Wikipedia, it's right in the middle of the 1947-57 range), but created a reservoir in those younger who'd never before been exposed to an H1N1 strain, or it's strain. That is, while it wasn't new enough to displace H3N2, it got a foothold, and since then we'd have to deal with both H1N1 and H3N2.

    So the current SARS-CoV-2 serotype still has 230 million people who've never seen it if you go by the CDC's estimate of 8X the number of confirmed cases, which is as reasonable guess as any, and thus is under no real selection pressure to change, that is, for a mutation to out compete it, it's transmitting wildly just as it is (in fact, it seems rather well adapted to humans, which you can't say about those new flu variants which we believe jumped over to humans (sort of, flu also hybridizes because its genome is segmented instead of being one long strand); that furthers our suspicions about an artificial origin (ask for details)).

    If between immunity from normal infections and vaccines it starts running out of targets, it would come under selection pressure to get around this immunity. If possible, a mutation that transmits better might replace the existing one. But we might not even care, or notice any time soon, if it say ditched the existing spike as such in favor of one that resulted in it being of true common cold severity. Not in its favor is the proofreading mechanism which limits mutation rates, and various things have to come together for a mutation that's adaptive, "more fit," to actually become a major thing, to move from a toehold in one human to a widely circulating strain.

    So we'll see, but for the foreseeable future, I'm not worried.

    I hope the above adds understanding, I don't think I did quite as good a job explaining it as I could have. Please ask for more if you think it'll help.

    Replies: @AnotherDad, @Twinkie

    , @MEH 0910
    @AnotherDad


    Yeah, this will wizzle on in pockets.
     
    Razzle In My Pocket · Ian Dury
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=om6gF02Qqqo
  163. @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @Known Fact

    Same here in NJ. Back in April there were over 8,300 patients hospitalized for Coronavirus at the peak, yesterday we had 2,900 in the hospital with COVID.

    Daily deaths are way below April when 300 were dying each day. So far in November daily deaths have been about 30 , similar to the daily deaths we had in July here in New Jersey.

    Replies: @Travis

    nearly all of the present surge in cases is among 20-60 year olds, but this component of surge has had negligible impact on hospitalizations and even less on deaths (almost non-existent in this cohort)…The main factor in reduced hospitalizations and deaths in present surge appears to be lower COVID case rates among over-80s thus far as compared to spring…the focus of media on cases, while ignoring the much lower death rates in fall recurrence, is needlessly feeding anxiety.

  164. @epebble
    @George

    I have some questions on the design of tests too:

    1. Covid-19 is killing about 1,000 per day in a population of 330 million in U.S.

    2. = 1 per day per 330,000 population

    3. In 60 days, that will be 60 deaths.

    4. For a Placebo group of 15,000, over 60 days, that should be about 3 deaths

    5. But they saw only one death.

    6. Hence, they undersampled risk by about 66%

    It would have been better, if they had sampled risk group better (i.e. get 3 deaths in placebo group) and even better if test sample was 100,000 instead of 30,000 so as to get 10 deaths in (well sampled) placebo group. Then, they could have pointed out, look, our vaccine saves lives, by a factor of 90% (assuming only one person max in vaccinated group dies).

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    4. For a Placebo group of 15,000, over 60 days, that should be about 3 deaths

    5. But they saw only one death.

    6. Hence, they undersampled risk by about 66%

    It would have been better, if they had sampled risk group better (i.e. get 3 deaths in placebo group)

    Besides these being very small numbers, one issue is see is limits to how sick a person can be and enroll in the study. By the time they’re either starting the Phase III trial, or adding the more elderly and/or more sick, they have some idea of the basic side effect profile, but I assume “not enough” for many people. I would also assume if someone is quite sick, but through quarantine quality not judged at great immediate risk from COVID-19, to make an solid informed choice about taking the vaccine I’d want the trials and emergency vaccinations to have provided more data.

    There’s also the critical PR aspect of this, they want absolutely no gratuitous deaths in the vaccine arm of the trial, that would at minimum delay all approvals for some time, and could kill an otherwise very good vaccine.

    and even better if test sample was 100,000 instead of 30,000 so as to get 10 deaths in (well sampled) placebo group.

    That would require time we’ve judged we don’t have for the vaccines we can put on a really fast track, and a lot more money. That said, Janssen is very ambitious, trying a long term, higher risk (only one dose), high gain strategy to vaccinate one billion by the end of 2021, and is enrolling 60,000 people in their Phase III trial.

  165. @kaganovitch
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Well, it would explain how he suddenly morphed into David Souter.

    Replies: @tyrone, @Lot

    “he suddenly morphed into David Souter.”

    He did not.

    This Pizzagate garbage makes nationalists look stupid.

    • Replies: @Getaclue
    @Lot

    Go check out the Social Media of the owner of that restaurant and some of the actual evidence at issue (as opposed to the Mainslime Media lies/cover up) -- it's actually on here -- then tell me it's "garbage" and shows nothing... - nobody not into Pedo has that type of stuff around, nobody -- or do you think that is normal? Normal in your world? Look at the damn photos and tell me this is "normal":
    https://www.unz.com/article/pizzagate/




    https://www.unz.com/article/precedents-for-pizzagate/

    , @kaganovitch
    @Lot

    He did not.

    Forget about why; Is it your contention that Roberts has shown no signs of "growth" over the last few years?

  166. @anonymous
    I'm sorry, where is the Steve post where he just says,

    "I apologize for being totally wrong about this coronavirus hoax where clearly the goal is to simply ruin your lives. It turns out total deaths aren't up and it literally cannot affect you at all if you're not already in a nursing home and all of the data has proven this time and time again. No increase in total deaths, no evidence it can or does affect normal people and even for sick people the reason flu deaths and heart disease deaths are down is because they simply decided to code--for no reason--all deaths as covid deaths if you test positive or they think you had covid "symptoms" which include literally everything that normally kills all of the 85 year olds who are going to die which is why total deaths haven't increased at all. So it's probably a bad thing they ruined your life and your kids' lives and are ramming through globalist corporatist communism based on a completely fake disease hoax. Oops, my mistake."


    I'm not sure I understand these posts where he's taking the hoax at face value and "analyzing" it in terms of the evil hoax being pushed on us by people who hate us.

    Replies: @SparkyLyle92, @Muggles

    “’m not sure I understand these posts where he’s taking the hoax at face value and “analyzing” it in terms of the evil hoax being pushed on us by people who hate us.”

    What’s to understand? Steve is a paid agent of influence. He’ll promote whatever BS his bosses tell him to promote.

    • Troll: Muggles
  167. @peterike
    @Twinkie


    Eventually, we hope that, with the vaccines and improve therapies, this will become like a flu – another coronavirus that has relatively mild symptoms and very low mortality among the vaccinated and those with good hygiene, but one that will continue to infect and kill a small, but significant segment of the infected and persist in pockets of the population.
     
    Your description of "eventually" is exactly what Covid is right now, without any vaccine -- relatively mild symptoms, very low mortality, kills a small but significant segment of the infected. 100% accurate description of Covid RIGHT NOW.

    Replies: @Twinkie

    Covid RIGHT NOW.

    Yes, after three waves on top of a lockdown. That’s not analogous to the flu in recent memory.

    • Agree: MEH 0910
  168. @AnotherDad
    @Twinkie


    Eventually, we hope that, with the vaccines and improve therapies, this will become like a flu
     
    Twinkie, that's more or less what i thought back in the spring.

    But with this vaccine, that's not what i see happening now. Mainly because the vaccine is so effective, and because coronaviruses have this replication proof-reading and so are much less mutation prone than the flu viruses. (My thanks to the iSteve commenters who explained this to me.)

    It is these continual antigen shifts that keep the flu popping. I've been exposed to the Asian (H2N2) the Hong Kong (H3N2), the Swine (H1N1) and had the '76 swine jab as well as plenty of seasonal shots aimed at this or that strain over the years. But the flu has kicked my ass a few times.

    In contrast, once i get my jab for this (like Moderna, but will take whatever) i should be done with it. (If it turns out a booster every 10 or 20 is called for, i'll get that.)

    Yeah, this will wizzle on in pockets. And old folks whose immune systems have crashed, will die from it, as they do the flu. Though, i suspect less so, because even the nursing homes hiring the Somali attendants will have them vaccination.

    Basically the vaccine is going to really put the whoop ass on this thing. If it doesn't mutate, it's playlist is going to only be anti-vaxers and those with poor immune systems. The measles--just way less virulent.

    Replies: @Twinkie, @That Would Be Telling, @MEH 0910

    Basically the vaccine is going to really put the whoop ass on this thing.

    I hope so. We’ll find out one way or another.

  169. @Buffalo Joe
    @John Achterhof

    John, meanwhile in California, San Mateo County has banned travel of over 150 miles. If you chose to travel that far then you MUST quarantine for 10 days. I wonder, how do you enforce this, why 150 miles and why 10 days? Good luck with your training. Probably will have to mask up for the actual event.

    Replies: @John Achterhof

    Yeah, the Covid mandates aren’t all that enforceable. What is required for a society to do well against the virus, as the example of New Zealand demonstrates, is competent and broadly respected leadership and high social solidarity in complying with the guidelines. We Americans are lacking in both of these attributes. I’m hoping though that by the June start of the tri season here in MI most Americans will with the fantastic work of big pharma have immunity and we’ll be off and running again.

  170. @AnotherDad
    @Twinkie


    Eventually, we hope that, with the vaccines and improve therapies, this will become like a flu
     
    Twinkie, that's more or less what i thought back in the spring.

    But with this vaccine, that's not what i see happening now. Mainly because the vaccine is so effective, and because coronaviruses have this replication proof-reading and so are much less mutation prone than the flu viruses. (My thanks to the iSteve commenters who explained this to me.)

    It is these continual antigen shifts that keep the flu popping. I've been exposed to the Asian (H2N2) the Hong Kong (H3N2), the Swine (H1N1) and had the '76 swine jab as well as plenty of seasonal shots aimed at this or that strain over the years. But the flu has kicked my ass a few times.

    In contrast, once i get my jab for this (like Moderna, but will take whatever) i should be done with it. (If it turns out a booster every 10 or 20 is called for, i'll get that.)

    Yeah, this will wizzle on in pockets. And old folks whose immune systems have crashed, will die from it, as they do the flu. Though, i suspect less so, because even the nursing homes hiring the Somali attendants will have them vaccination.

    Basically the vaccine is going to really put the whoop ass on this thing. If it doesn't mutate, it's playlist is going to only be anti-vaxers and those with poor immune systems. The measles--just way less virulent.

    Replies: @Twinkie, @That Would Be Telling, @MEH 0910

    It is these continual antigen shifts that keep the flu popping.

    The key detail to that, which gets around mutation rates, is the body’s ability to latch onto some part of the virus that is “conserved.” For an enzyme, imagine a lock that a key has to fit more or less precisely into. Change the lock too much, and it can’t function, “the virus won’t virus.” So for a lot of RNA viruses without the unique for RNA viruses coronavirus proofreading mechanism, we have “eternal” vaccines because they attack conserved regions.

    For the flu, our bodies simply don’t latch onto anything conserved, either in a real wild type flu infection, or our vaccines to date.

    Another note on mutation in this context: it’s ecological, potentially many organisms and variants of them are fighting for their niches.

    To take the flues you’ve experienced, H2N2 displaced the H1N1 family that had been dominate since 1918. Over the next decade, it was under increasing selection pressure to transmit more effectively, so I assume it “mutated,” adapted better to humans (a dead or stuck in bed human doesn’t transmit it well). It displaced H1N1 in the first place because it transmitted much better because the population was naive, had never seen this variation.

    H3N2, a smaller change, displaced H2N2 a decade later. Again, the population was naive to newer variant, and it transmitted much more effectively than H2N2. Then some #$*@#([email protected]& who had stored a circa 1947-57 H1N1 strain let it escape from their lab around 1976. I assume it didn’t make much headway against those over 23 years of age (found that number on Wikipedia, it’s right in the middle of the 1947-57 range), but created a reservoir in those younger who’d never before been exposed to an H1N1 strain, or it’s strain. That is, while it wasn’t new enough to displace H3N2, it got a foothold, and since then we’d have to deal with both H1N1 and H3N2.

    So the current SARS-CoV-2 serotype still has 230 million people who’ve never seen it if you go by the CDC’s estimate of 8X the number of confirmed cases, which is as reasonable guess as any, and thus is under no real selection pressure to change, that is, for a mutation to out compete it, it’s transmitting wildly just as it is (in fact, it seems rather well adapted to humans, which you can’t say about those new flu variants which we believe jumped over to humans (sort of, flu also hybridizes because its genome is segmented instead of being one long strand); that furthers our suspicions about an artificial origin (ask for details)).

    If between immunity from normal infections and vaccines it starts running out of targets, it would come under selection pressure to get around this immunity. If possible, a mutation that transmits better might replace the existing one. But we might not even care, or notice any time soon, if it say ditched the existing spike as such in favor of one that resulted in it being of true common cold severity. Not in its favor is the proofreading mechanism which limits mutation rates, and various things have to come together for a mutation that’s adaptive, “more fit,” to actually become a major thing, to move from a toehold in one human to a widely circulating strain.

    So we’ll see, but for the foreseeable future, I’m not worried.

    I hope the above adds understanding, I don’t think I did quite as good a job explaining it as I could have. Please ask for more if you think it’ll help.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad
    @That Would Be Telling

    Thanks TWB Telling.

    I have the general "intelligent layman's" knowledge about a lot of stuff that is not opera. I've taken more interest in matters biological the last decade or two as i've gotten older. (Want to know what this or that supplement might do for me and how it affects cellular function or is supposed to work.)
    But am generally at that layman level. Your info on viruses has been clear and useful and informative for me. Appreciate it.

    , @Twinkie
    @That Would Be Telling


    that furthers our suspicions about an artificial origin (ask for details)).
     
    Razib Khan seems to find Alina Chan credible, what, might I ask, is your take on her claims?

    Replies: @MEH 0910, @That Would Be Telling

  171. It must be Christmastime: “German” men are driving cars into Christmas markets.

  172. @Bardon Kaldian
    At this level of knowledge/ignorance, I'd rather skip those three vaccines & use Russian & Chinese. Moderna & Pfizer have too many questions about them, and all that RNA-for life stuff is too suspicious.
    I'd rather wait.

    Replies: @Travis, @MEH 0910

    At this level of knowledge/ignorance, I’d rather skip those three vaccines & use Russian & Chinese.

    Crawling To The U.S.A.

    Crawling To The U.S.A. · Elvis Costello & The Attractions

    http://www.elviscostello.info/wiki/index.php/Crawling_To_The_USA

    Everybody is on their knees except the Russians and the Chinese

  173. Anon[240] • Disclaimer says:

    I saw Henninger of the WSJ expressing his dismay about prisoners being prioritized for vaccination over the elderly. So here’s my plan, as an elderly fellow. I will commit some sort of minor crime that will get me a 30-day sentence. That will be exactly long enough for the first shot and then the booster. Am seeking an elderly cellmate, preferably someone else with lots of interesting stories. Chess player a plus.

  174. Forget blacks refusing to take a vaccine. Imagine what would happen if it was announced that a vaccine had adverse effects on trans individuals.

  175. @anonymous
    I'm sorry, where is the Steve post where he just says,

    "I apologize for being totally wrong about this coronavirus hoax where clearly the goal is to simply ruin your lives. It turns out total deaths aren't up and it literally cannot affect you at all if you're not already in a nursing home and all of the data has proven this time and time again. No increase in total deaths, no evidence it can or does affect normal people and even for sick people the reason flu deaths and heart disease deaths are down is because they simply decided to code--for no reason--all deaths as covid deaths if you test positive or they think you had covid "symptoms" which include literally everything that normally kills all of the 85 year olds who are going to die which is why total deaths haven't increased at all. So it's probably a bad thing they ruined your life and your kids' lives and are ramming through globalist corporatist communism based on a completely fake disease hoax. Oops, my mistake."


    I'm not sure I understand these posts where he's taking the hoax at face value and "analyzing" it in terms of the evil hoax being pushed on us by people who hate us.

    Replies: @SparkyLyle92, @Muggles

    Everyone is free to take their own risk assessment and draw conclusions about potential vaccines.

    You can call it a “hoax” but few medical doctors/epidemiologists appear to agree.

    Yes, things are shut down, etc. due to fear of this. People are getting sick (or are they all hoaxers too?) Fear does strange things. Like start foreign wars that never end, etc.

    Then some here bitch because Mr. Sailer chooses to write about it or excerpt writings about it. If you don’t want to read about the “hoax” go elsewhere, how ’bout that?

    As for all the chest thumpers here yelling ‘hoax’, I have yet to read anyone doing that who cites their own advanced medical or biological credentials or clinical experience. Not A Single One.

    We already know this is a puzzling development, this WuFlu. Stopping it is very difficult.

    But a lot of people on right wing sites (and others) claimed about 30 years ago that AIDS was also a hoax caused by various minor aliments or nutritional deficiencies. Eventually these people vanished. The science proved out and their cries of hoax all wrong.

    So rant and vent, that’s what is done here. But to savagely berate others because they have a different take on things is childish if not a form of mental illness. If you don’t like what iSteve posts here, feel free to run your own blog. Or just wait patiently until science proves you right.

    Also, the Biden-Harris era is soon upon us. You’ll find better things to complain about with that.

    • Replies: @anonymous
    @Muggles

    i worked as a researcher in a bsl4 lab on virology (specifically, ebola) with nobel laureates and have a way higher IQ than steve as well as plenty of way better degrees from way better schools in fields related to medical science.

    so i guess now you have heard one.


    aids was also a hoax, you moron. it was a hoax in that it was used to terrify people of my generation when in fact it never, ever affected middle class heterosexual american white people. that is an absolute fact. you're not even a "conspiracy theorist" if you argue otherwise. you're just ignorant of the bare facts.


    and when i have a different opinion from steve i'm also free to tell him, you child. i don't need my own blog to do so--i'm doing it right now.

  176. @Old Prude
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Running Powerball would be (is?) a great way for covert ops (Mossad?) to get ready money...

    Replies: @Muggles

    Running Powerball would be (is?) a great way for covert ops (Mossad?) to get ready money…

    Yes, about as likely as Mossad running Ft. Knox.

    While I read of one state lottery (Iowa?) where the insiders managed to rig payoffs, that is otherwise unknown. Also, the group in Iowa got quickly caught.

    These lotteries do hire math consultants to review drawing results. So far, so good.

    I doubt if the Jewish bureaucrats who run Mossad think lotteries are a way to get rich quick.

    However, it was interesting to learn that Voltaire “got rich” or substantially increased his wealth by playing the then brand new French national lottery. It had many design flaws which he and his partners quickly exploited. The French king soon fired his treasurer and killed the lottery.

  177. @SparkyLyle92
    Good twist for pushing pro-vaccine propaganda to Unz readership.
    Anybody promoting these vaccines should be required to receive them.
    Guinea pig much?

    Replies: @Kaz, @AnotherDad

    There’s nothing crazy about these vaccines.

    Yes, they make your ribosomes produce the spike protein. The virus makes them do that as well … along with the rest of the virus!

    Yes, the vaccines were just cooked up in some lab in the US or Germany or the UK or Russia this year The virus was cooked up in a lab in China last year.

    I’m recommending the jab, and will get one myself.

    However, if you go in and the technician looks up your name, then skips the vials on her desk and goes to freezer and pulls out a red vial that has “Unz” written on it … get outta there quick!

  178. @Anon7
    From Military.com:

    Surgeon General Cites Horrific Tuskegee Experiment, Voices Vaccine Distribution Concerns

    U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams is warning that some American populations may be reluctant to take a COVID-19 vaccine because of the nation's dark history of racial discrimination.

    On an Oct. 23 conference call, he cited the infamous Tuskegee Institute syphilis experiments from 1932-1972, in which hundreds of African-American sharecroppers with the disease were studied and deceptively given ineffective treatments instead of penicillin
     
    For those who don’t know, Dr. Adams is black. So that’s it then.

    Replies: @Hypnotoad666

    On an Oct. 23 conference call, he cited the infamous Tuskegee Institute syphilis experiments from 1932-1972 . . .

    The problem with Tuskegee is that they didn’t give the white man’s new magic shot to the blacks. You’d think the lesson learned would be to get to the front of the line this time.

    But then again, 99% of blacks and probably 80% of whites think the Tuskegee experiments involved intentionally injecting blacks with a disease.

    • Replies: @Jack Armstrong
    @Hypnotoad666

    The tragedy of Tuskeegee is that these men, who who won the air war in the ETO, weren’t given the life saving vaccine developed from peanuts by Dr. George Washington Carver.

    Let that sink in before you criticize African-Americans.

  179. @Polynikes
    @JimDandy

    That is a fair question and the reason I, in the non risk group, will not be getting one. The national vaccine compensation fund was started after the failed 1976 swine flu vaccine. There are still unresolved legal claims from the 09 H1N1 vaccine. Both rushed out like this one.

    That isn’t to say that the vaccine isn’t worth it, especially for higher risk groups. But I see zero reason healthy children or even adults up to the age of ~55 should be rushing into this thing.

    Replies: @JimDandy, @epebble, @Nico

    That isn’t to say that the vaccine isn’t worth it, especially for higher risk groups.

    Like you I won’t be getting the vaccine as I am under 55, not obese, not diabetic and not with any serious cardiovascular history. Incidentally 90% of the hospitalized patients fit into one of the latter three categories with most belonging to more than one.

    It is past time we stopped torpedoing the economy for the sake of people who do not know to skip the fries and order a salad once in a while.

    • Agree: Travis
  180. @Bard of Bumperstickers
    @Anon

    Yeah, that was the point, bud. Pardon the med-tech mistake typed two hours after bedtime, while trying to do something about this impending planet-wide manufactured Hegelian crisis. The point remains valid. It's a murderous scam of unprecedented dimensions. Nuremberg 2.0 is called for, immediately.

    Replies: @Muggles, @Anon

    It’s a murderous scam of unprecedented dimensions. Nuremberg 2.0 is called for, immediately.

    Get this man some happy pills stat!

    Whatever you are eating or taking before bedtime, cut the dose!

    No one is saying getting a COVID vax is going to be mandatory. Relax, take deep breaths.

    A lot of these tough guys here complain about hysterical women, but yeesh. Just read what they write when they get the vapors!

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @Muggles

    Why wouldn't it be mandatory? They sent police after barbers who cut hair and old ladies who wouldn't wear a medically meaningless mask. They deliberately grievously wounded the entire small business sector. There is no reason to expect several small businesses will return and, at least in Michigan, restaurant owners are talking about a kind of revolt in about a week, re-opening no matter what the whim of the monarch is on that day, because if they don't re-open then, they never will re-open at all. If before this you had been offered two possibilities to evaluate for likelihood -- mandatory vaccination against a global plague, or the American government deliberately (and not just through passive means like over-regulation and enabling the tech monopolies) eliminating small business -- wouldn't you choose the first as much more likely? It at least makes sense.

    , @vhrm
    @Muggles


    No one is saying getting a COVID vax is going to be mandatory. Relax, take deep breaths.

     

    Several people and groups (and i mean powerful and influential ones, not just random tweeters) are openly discussing or recommending it:


    https://www.today.com/health/will-covid-19-vaccine-be-mandatory-t190838

    In August, Australia’s prime minister suggested the vaccine would be mandatory in his country, but later backtracked on those comments.

    That same month in Virginia, the health commissioner said he planned on mandating the vaccine, but a spokeswoman for the state’s governor later said there were no plans to do so, local media reported.

    In November, the New York State Bar Association recommended the state consider making it mandatory for all residents to get the shot, except those exempted by doctors.
     

    Cities have powers, too: In 2019, New York City required people living in four ZIP codes in Williamsburg, Brooklyn, to get the measles vaccine, prove they've already had it or face a $1,000 fine.
     

    Can an employer fire you if you refuse to get immunized?

    Yes, with some exceptions.

    “It's perfectly legitimate for an employer to regulate to make the workplace safer,” Reiss said. “They can certainly fire you if you don't want to follow health and safety rules.”
     
    and it goes on.

    So... in the current rather hysterical environment it's more likely than not imo that the vaccine will be _practically_, if not technically required, especially in the blue states and internationally. The same way that having identification, a phone and bank account are not required, but you have to feel QUITE strongly about it to live your life without them.

    And given the unprecedented government trampling of civil liberties at the state and county levels and how it was welcome by large majorities in blue areas I think it's quite likely that blue areas will just outright mandate it, because why not?

    Ironically (?) it will probably not be enforced in communities of color, just like the distancing hasn't been and then the fact that vaccination rates are lower among POC will be used as further proof of systemic racism in the US. Wheel in the sky keeps on turning...
  181. @That Would Be Telling
    @AnotherDad


    It is these continual antigen shifts that keep the flu popping.
     
    The key detail to that, which gets around mutation rates, is the body's ability to latch onto some part of the virus that is "conserved." For an enzyme, imagine a lock that a key has to fit more or less precisely into. Change the lock too much, and it can't function, "the virus won't virus." So for a lot of RNA viruses without the unique for RNA viruses coronavirus proofreading mechanism, we have "eternal" vaccines because they attack conserved regions.

    For the flu, our bodies simply don't latch onto anything conserved, either in a real wild type flu infection, or our vaccines to date.

    Another note on mutation in this context: it's ecological, potentially many organisms and variants of them are fighting for their niches.

    To take the flues you've experienced, H2N2 displaced the H1N1 family that had been dominate since 1918. Over the next decade, it was under increasing selection pressure to transmit more effectively, so I assume it "mutated," adapted better to humans (a dead or stuck in bed human doesn't transmit it well). It displaced H1N1 in the first place because it transmitted much better because the population was naive, had never seen this variation.

    H3N2, a smaller change, displaced H2N2 a decade later. Again, the population was naive to newer variant, and it transmitted much more effectively than H2N2. Then some #$*@#([email protected]& who had stored a circa 1947-57 H1N1 strain let it escape from their lab around 1976. I assume it didn't make much headway against those over 23 years of age (found that number on Wikipedia, it's right in the middle of the 1947-57 range), but created a reservoir in those younger who'd never before been exposed to an H1N1 strain, or it's strain. That is, while it wasn't new enough to displace H3N2, it got a foothold, and since then we'd have to deal with both H1N1 and H3N2.

    So the current SARS-CoV-2 serotype still has 230 million people who've never seen it if you go by the CDC's estimate of 8X the number of confirmed cases, which is as reasonable guess as any, and thus is under no real selection pressure to change, that is, for a mutation to out compete it, it's transmitting wildly just as it is (in fact, it seems rather well adapted to humans, which you can't say about those new flu variants which we believe jumped over to humans (sort of, flu also hybridizes because its genome is segmented instead of being one long strand); that furthers our suspicions about an artificial origin (ask for details)).

    If between immunity from normal infections and vaccines it starts running out of targets, it would come under selection pressure to get around this immunity. If possible, a mutation that transmits better might replace the existing one. But we might not even care, or notice any time soon, if it say ditched the existing spike as such in favor of one that resulted in it being of true common cold severity. Not in its favor is the proofreading mechanism which limits mutation rates, and various things have to come together for a mutation that's adaptive, "more fit," to actually become a major thing, to move from a toehold in one human to a widely circulating strain.

    So we'll see, but for the foreseeable future, I'm not worried.

    I hope the above adds understanding, I don't think I did quite as good a job explaining it as I could have. Please ask for more if you think it'll help.

    Replies: @AnotherDad, @Twinkie

    Thanks TWB Telling.

    I have the general “intelligent layman’s” knowledge about a lot of stuff that is not opera. I’ve taken more interest in matters biological the last decade or two as i’ve gotten older. (Want to know what this or that supplement might do for me and how it affects cellular function or is supposed to work.)
    But am generally at that layman level. Your info on viruses has been clear and useful and informative for me. Appreciate it.

    • Thanks: That Would Be Telling
  182. @Steve Richter
    our side should make the case for the free market. No need for FDA to have authority to prevent drugs from being sold. Without FDA, there would be certification companies that would be paid by drug companies to certify the safety and efficacy of their products. Product liability insurance providers would oversee how the products they insure were manufactured and distributed. Individuals should be free to research a vaccine and be inoculated at their own risk.

    Replies: @botazefa

    Without FDA, there would be certification companies that would be paid by drug companies to certify the safety and efficacy of their products

    You already have your wish as it is clear that the FDA is in bed with the drug industry. If you don’t like the FDA, you’d like your solution even less.

  183. @Bert
    @William Badwhite

    Consider his options: Live in a moldy basement apartment in a grimy town in Moldova and work from home for Open Societies, or live in a moldy basement apartment in a grimy town in Moldova and spend weekdays working in a grimy factory inhaling toxic fumes. Seems to me that he's making the best of his situation.

    Replies: @utu

    Lots of room in cellars and basements in Moldova. Plenty of wine and no mold.

    The World’s Largest Wine Cellar is in Moldova
    https://www.thevintagenews.com/2019/03/12/wine-cellar-in-moldova/

    • Replies: @Captain Tripps
    @utu

    That's all fine and dandy, but is the wine GOOD? I've not read anywhere that Moldovan wines are top of the line internationally; but it could be true that this is an undiscovered treasure trove. Then again, wine is not my thing, though I do enjoy an occasional glass. I am more of a whiskey (or whisky, if you prefer) man...

    Replies: @Jack D, @utu

  184. @gcochran
    @TTSSYF

    We do have vaccines for some herpesviruses. Chickenpox/shingles, for example. While we're working on others.

    Replies: @TTSSYF

    We don’t have them for HIV, nor do we have them herpes simplex I or II.

  185. @That Would Be Telling
    @TTSSYF


    We also don’t have vaccines to prevent infection with HIV or herpesviruses.
     
    Bzzzt! (Chickenpox vaccine.)

    They mutate too frequently — it’s like chasing a wizard. Same with the annual flu shot, which is effective, at best, only about 65% of the time.
     
    It all depends on what our adaptive immune system latches onto, is it parts of the virus that can mutate frequently, or are they "conserved." An analogy for enzymes is a lock into which a key must precisely fit, change the lock too much and it doesn't work, and "the virus can't virus."

    So we have many "eternal" vaccines against viruses that mutate rapidly, and a lot more rapidly than the cornaviruses, which have an imperfect proofreading mechanism that's unique in RNA viruses. See previous comments about there being too many virus types for a complete vaccine for the common cold to be feasible. HIV I have no informed opinions about, but I have read a credible claim is has ways to hide out from the immune system, and it is after all the cause of "acquired immune deficiency syndrome."

    Replies: @TTSSYF

    Yes, for some herpesviruses, but not for herpes simplex I or II, nor for HIV.

  186. @Muggles
    @Bard of Bumperstickers


    It’s a murderous scam of unprecedented dimensions. Nuremberg 2.0 is called for, immediately.
     
    Get this man some happy pills stat!

    Whatever you are eating or taking before bedtime, cut the dose!

    No one is saying getting a COVID vax is going to be mandatory. Relax, take deep breaths.

    A lot of these tough guys here complain about hysterical women, but yeesh. Just read what they write when they get the vapors!

    Replies: @J.Ross, @vhrm

    Why wouldn’t it be mandatory? They sent police after barbers who cut hair and old ladies who wouldn’t wear a medically meaningless mask. They deliberately grievously wounded the entire small business sector. There is no reason to expect several small businesses will return and, at least in Michigan, restaurant owners are talking about a kind of revolt in about a week, re-opening no matter what the whim of the monarch is on that day, because if they don’t re-open then, they never will re-open at all. If before this you had been offered two possibilities to evaluate for likelihood — mandatory vaccination against a global plague, or the American government deliberately (and not just through passive means like over-regulation and enabling the tech monopolies) eliminating small business — wouldn’t you choose the first as much more likely? It at least makes sense.

    • Agree: vhrm
  187. @Rockford Tyson
    @TTSSYF

    I am not picking on conservative whites. I am just pointing out the hypocrisy of Sailer questioning whether black people will accept being vaccinated by the "white man's vaccine" when the majority of people that refuse to be vaccinated are white.

    I agree, and I won't be taking the vaccine until a thorough meta-analysis on chronic effects is made. I will give it at least one year.

    Replies: @TTSSYF

    You very clearly were criticizing conservative whites. How do you know that the majority of people who refuse to be vaccinated are white? It isn’t even available yet to accept or refuse…and you yourself say you’ll wait a year or so to see how it works out. What makes you so quick to assume that the majority of whites in flyover country aren’t doing the same?

  188. A big question is whether, following the Democrats’ and Prestige Media’s months of declaring that white people are out to get blacks, and the Democratic candidates’ anti-vaxx dogwhistling against Trump’s emphasis on rapid vaccine development, whether enough blacks will allow themselves to be vaccinated.


    [MORE]

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @MEH 0910

    It would be fine with me if every single Black Muslim got covid, starting with Minister Farrakhan. Lou is 87 so a whiff of the 'rona might well send him back to Allah.


    If they don't want the white man's medicine, fine with me. Good luck making a black vaccine.

  189. @theo the kraut
    OT, I happened to stumble on this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O33gPFvFXvI

    »It was the wedding of the year in the Hasidic world. More than 10,000 guests arrived at the Sanz Hasidic headquarters in Netanya to celebrate the wedding of Meir Meshulam, son of Sanz Grand Rabbi Tzvi Elimelech Halberstam, the Klausenberger Rebbe of Netanya, to his cousin, Bracha Unsdorfer.«

    Replies: @Thoughts, @Inquiring Mind, @Jack D, @Dissident

    That video was from 2009.

  190. @MEH 0910

    A big question is whether, following the Democrats’ and Prestige Media’s months of declaring that white people are out to get blacks, and the Democratic candidates’ anti-vaxx dogwhistling against Trump’s emphasis on rapid vaccine development, whether enough blacks will allow themselves to be vaccinated.
     
    https://twitter.com/OfficialNOI/status/1333895041941647363

    https://twitter.com/NOIResearch/status/1333801341509017604

    Replies: @Jack D

    It would be fine with me if every single Black Muslim got covid, starting with Minister Farrakhan. Lou is 87 so a whiff of the ‘rona might well send him back to Allah.

    If they don’t want the white man’s medicine, fine with me. Good luck making a black vaccine.

  191. @lysias
    @Jack D

    We still don't know what the effects will be just one year after taking the shot.

    Replies: @Jack D

    This is true but from other vaccines it is known that the vast majority of side effects appear no later than 45 days from taking the shot. While it is not completely impossible that there will be long term side effects it’s highly unlikely. Anything is possible but when the possibilities are really really small you can make a decision that the risks are outweighed by the benefits. If you go out to your mailbox you might be hit by an out of control car but I still fetch the mail every day.

  192. @Muggles
    @Bard of Bumperstickers


    It’s a murderous scam of unprecedented dimensions. Nuremberg 2.0 is called for, immediately.
     
    Get this man some happy pills stat!

    Whatever you are eating or taking before bedtime, cut the dose!

    No one is saying getting a COVID vax is going to be mandatory. Relax, take deep breaths.

    A lot of these tough guys here complain about hysterical women, but yeesh. Just read what they write when they get the vapors!

    Replies: @J.Ross, @vhrm

    No one is saying getting a COVID vax is going to be mandatory. Relax, take deep breaths.

    Several people and groups (and i mean powerful and influential ones, not just random tweeters) are openly discussing or recommending it:

    https://www.today.com/health/will-covid-19-vaccine-be-mandatory-t190838

    In August, Australia’s prime minister suggested the vaccine would be mandatory in his country, but later backtracked on those comments.

    That same month in Virginia, the health commissioner said he planned on mandating the vaccine, but a spokeswoman for the state’s governor later said there were no plans to do so, local media reported.

    In November, the New York State Bar Association recommended the state consider making it mandatory for all residents to get the shot, except those exempted by doctors.

    Cities have powers, too: In 2019, New York City required people living in four ZIP codes in Williamsburg, Brooklyn, to get the measles vaccine, prove they’ve already had it or face a $1,000 fine.

    Can an employer fire you if you refuse to get immunized?

    Yes, with some exceptions.

    “It’s perfectly legitimate for an employer to regulate to make the workplace safer,” Reiss said. “They can certainly fire you if you don’t want to follow health and safety rules.”

    and it goes on.

    So… in the current rather hysterical environment it’s more likely than not imo that the vaccine will be _practically_, if not technically required, especially in the blue states and internationally. The same way that having identification, a phone and bank account are not required, but you have to feel QUITE strongly about it to live your life without them.

    And given the unprecedented government trampling of civil liberties at the state and county levels and how it was welcome by large majorities in blue areas I think it’s quite likely that blue areas will just outright mandate it, because why not?

    Ironically (?) it will probably not be enforced in communities of color, just like the distancing hasn’t been and then the fact that vaccination rates are lower among POC will be used as further proof of systemic racism in the US. Wheel in the sky keeps on turning…

    • Agree: Pierre de Craon
  193. @El Dato
    OT: A fitting tribute to Weimar Collapse

    Nasdaq threatens 75% of listed companies with order to appoint women & LGBT or other 'diverse' directors to board – or else

    US stock exchange Nasdaq has warned listed companies they must appoint at least two “diverse” directors to their board – a ‘self-identified’ female and an “underrepresented minority” or LGBTQ person – or possibly face delisting.

     

    Those end-of-year company gangbangs are going to get better and better.

    Meanwhile:

    World’s most powerful radio telescope COLLAPSES in Puerto Rico, after decades of hunting alien signals from space

    The observatory had been closed since August, after an auxiliary cable snapped and tore a 100-foot gash in the dish. Following another cable breakage in early November, the NSF announced that its engineers were working on decommissioning the giant telescope.

    Prior to its series of mishaps, funding for the telescope had been steadily reduced over the past decade, despite protest from the scientific community.
     
    As this is going on:

    https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1333760338848780288

    INBOX: Credit Suisse introduces the “LGBT-350”, a market-cap weighted basket of LGBT-inclusive companies.
     
    More like a basket case, right?

    Replies: @S. Anonyia

    Will probably just result in lots of trannies getting appointed.

  194. @Bard of Bumperstickers
    @Anon

    Yeah, that was the point, bud. Pardon the med-tech mistake typed two hours after bedtime, while trying to do something about this impending planet-wide manufactured Hegelian crisis. The point remains valid. It's a murderous scam of unprecedented dimensions. Nuremberg 2.0 is called for, immediately.

    Replies: @Muggles, @Anon

    Missing (aka ignoring) the point was the point.

  195. @Hypnotoad666
    @Anon7


    On an Oct. 23 conference call, he cited the infamous Tuskegee Institute syphilis experiments from 1932-1972 . . .
     
    The problem with Tuskegee is that they didn't give the white man's new magic shot to the blacks. You'd think the lesson learned would be to get to the front of the line this time.

    But then again, 99% of blacks and probably 80% of whites think the Tuskegee experiments involved intentionally injecting blacks with a disease.

    Replies: @Jack Armstrong

    The tragedy of Tuskeegee is that these men, who who won the air war in the ETO, weren’t given the life saving vaccine developed from peanuts by Dr. George Washington Carver.

    Let that sink in before you criticize African-Americans.

  196. OT. but in keeping with all things black, an elected Buffalo School Board member, Paulette Woods, was caught on camera during a video board meeting, drinking wine and, throwing an angry middle finger at the screen and yelling “Fuck you bitch.” Woods’ mic was muted but a board memeber, who is white, mentioned what was happening. So, long story short, calls for her to resign, her strong denial, then today she apologised but I mention this because a member of the black clergy said ..”this is nothing more than the high tech lynching of a black woman.” There, another lynching. Mark your calendar, it is 2020 and we are still lynching blacks. Reparations now.

  197. @Anon
    @Lockean Proviso


    Maybe the legacy media can find a black lab worker at one of the vaccine makers and promote the idea that they are the actual creator of the vaccine, it having been stolen from them by white scientists. Netflix could make a movie about it, “Black Antibodies.”. Whatever it takes to reassure blacks that the vaccine is actually theirs so that they will take it when they’re placed at the front of the line.
     
    Hahaa! But in this day and age I could see nationwide protests and looting based on getting all the royalties to Mr. Black Antibody, who hints that it might be a big payday for the black community since he is feeling charitable. The legacy media would buy into it.

    Replies: @Lockean Proviso

    Well, at least f the money gets to blacks then it would get spent pretty quickly on locally purchased things like rims, home entertainment, jewelry, restaurants, and hairstyles instead of put into an offshore bank account or parked in a stock portfolio. Maybe passing out cash to blacks who would then spend it would turn out to be a good economic stimulus plan. Just make sure to include automatic tips into restaurant bills so that wait staff don’t miss out on the gravy train. I wouldn’t be surprised if this economic rationale for reparations has been mooted among the elites. I don’t like it but look for the silver lining…

  198. “It has been suggested that molecular mimicry may contribute to this problem, with antibodies to SARS-Cov-2 spike glycoproteins cross-reacting with structurally similar host heptapeptide protein sequirences (for example, interleukin 7 and alveolar surfactant proteins) and raising an acute autoimmune response against them. Autoinflammatory dysregulation in genetically susceptible individuals, and other autoimmune mechanisms such as epitope spreading and bystander activation, might also contribute to acute by also chronic autoimmunity during and after Covid-19.

    In the understandable socioeconomic rush towards mass vaccination without longer-term safety testing it would seem that an essential stage in any vaccine licensing process should involve careful analysis of the human proteome against vaccine peptide sequences.”

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7499017/

    and alot more papers (just google)

    Anyone in a non-high risk group who takes the mRNA vaccine (or any vaccine) before 2-5 years has passed is a fool.

    End of Discussion.

    And Steve, you have a duty of care to ask this question.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad
    @Thoughts

    Thanks Thoughts.

    But here's the deal--my way of thinking:

    I'm going to get the Xi virus eventually if i don't get the vaccine. (Granted i might be able to slide if a bunch of others get vaccinated ... but eventually i'll get it.)

    The bug will cause me to replicate not just the spike protein, but the whole virus. And keep doing it and doing it until my body's immune system can squash it.

    In contrast the mRNA vaccines are just making my body replicate the spike protein ... and only until they flame out. (I.e. the mRNA vaccine itself is not replicated.)

    , @Twinkie
    @Thoughts


    Anyone in a non-high risk group who takes the mRNA vaccine (or any vaccine) before 2-5 years has passed is a fool.
     
    Define “non-high risk group,” please. Why “2-5 years”?
    , @Jack D
    @Thoughts

    If you were weighing just the vaccine against nothing you might be right but, even for low risk individuals, you have to weigh the vaccine against the risk of getting Covid, which you will sooner or later the way things are going. If the spike protein from the vaccine is going to give you an autoimmune reaction, the one from the virus is going to give you one bigtime, because the virus is much more infectious. So do you want a little spike protein now or a WHOLE LOT later? Your choice.

    Also how is it that none of the vaccines have produced autoimmune reactions to date? It's possible that these are late occurring side effects but doubtful. You would expect the autoimmune reaction to be the strongest when you have the most antibodies in your system, i.e. shortly after you have taken the vaccine. How many years do you have to wait to see if these effects don't occur? One? Two? Ten? Twenty?

  199. Life imitates Steve Sailer.

    ‘Joy Reid: Black People May Not Trust Vaccine Due To History of Experimentations, Was Developed Under Trump’

    So suit yourself. I should care? Oh gee…black people are unwilling to take the vaccine. Whatever should I do?

  200. More…

    Molecular mimicry between SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein and mammalian proteomes: implications for the vaccine

    The ethiopathology of the diseasome induced by the SARS-CoV-2 infection in the human host [1] is under intensive investigation. A likely mechanism is that the multitude of the diseases encompassed within COVID-19 derives from molecular mimicry phenomena between the virus and human proteins [2]. The rationale is that, following an infection, the immune responses raised against the pathogen can cross-react with human proteins that share peptide sequences (or structures) with the pathogen, in this way, leading to harmful autoimmune pathologies [3, 4]. Accordingly, lungs and airways dysfunctions associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection might be explained by the sharing of peptides between SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein and alveolar lung surfactant proteins [2]. In support of this thesis, additional reports [5,6,7,8] highlight molecular mimicry and cross-reactivity as capable of explaining the SARS-CoV diseases. Of special interest, cross-reactive T cell recognition between circulating “common cold” coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2 has been also suggested [9].

    https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12026-020-09152-6?fbclid=IwAR15G6j_LLeasVNN9sjvMD7S7ZKHazkzOWQKayXi4F8R3LsYgNWFGrNsCpc

    • Thanks: vhrm
  201. @Goatweed
    If Moderna had been allowed to design, produce and sell a vaccine without testing the vaccine, how many people would have died from the vaccine versus how many would have people would have died from the disease given eight months of production at 20 million doses of the vaccine?

    Replies: @Jack D, @Johann Ricke, @AnotherDad, @Yancey Ward, @Colin Wright

    ‘If Moderna had been allowed to design, produce and sell a vaccine without testing the vaccine, how many people would have died from the vaccine versus how many would have people would have died from the disease given eight months of production at 20 million doses of the vaccine?’

    That’s bit like saying ‘if I had been given a copy of today’s Wall Street Journal eight months ago, how much money could I have made?’

    Of course, now that we know it bloody works and won’t cause you to have a seizure…

  202. @Lot
    @kaganovitch

    “he suddenly morphed into David Souter.”

    He did not.

    This Pizzagate garbage makes nationalists look stupid.

    Replies: @Getaclue, @kaganovitch

    Go check out the Social Media of the owner of that restaurant and some of the actual evidence at issue (as opposed to the Mainslime Media lies/cover up) — it’s actually on here — then tell me it’s “garbage” and shows nothing… – nobody not into Pedo has that type of stuff around, nobody — or do you think that is normal? Normal in your world? Look at the damn photos and tell me this is “normal”:
    https://www.unz.com/article/pizzagate/

    https://www.unz.com/article/precedents-for-pizzagate/

  203. @botazefa
    @Jack D


    Vaccines are among the safest of all medicine
     
    Even if that is true, the mRNA vaccines are a new type of vaccine. It's a mistake to extend the halo of vaccine safety to mRNA vaccines at this time.

    Replies: @MGB

    MRNA and the super duper proprietary nano goop wrapping the vaccine engineered to trick your immune system not to obliterate the vaccine. Oh and it stops the vaccine from collapsing like a soufflé, just ask DARPA, I mean moderna. It’s a desert topping and a floor cleaner all in one.

    • LOL: botazefa
    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @MGB


    MRNA and the super duper proprietary nano goop wrapping the vaccine engineered to trick your immune system not to obliterate the vaccine. Oh and it stops the vaccine from collapsing like a soufflé, just ask DARPA, I mean moderna. It’s a desert topping and a floor cleaner all in one.
     
    Nothing in the mRNA technology per se stops the spike protein "from collapsing like a soufflé, just ask DARPA." Per this article, it was a lab in Saint Fauci's institute that found a solution for the antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) that ruined the first attempt at an RSV vaccine with deadly results, see also dengue, and in a research effort derived from it this was successfully applied to first a safer to work with human coronavirus and then SARS/MERS type spike proteins, all this before SARS-CoV-2 showed up.

    This work involves a slight modification of the spike protein to stabilize it (see the above link and its great illustrations), and thus the mRNA or DNA coding for it in the Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, and Janssen vaccines. I've read an unreliable report that the clown show of Oxford didn't use it, and now that I think of it, I haven't investigated this for Sputnik V, but neither are of much interest to me until they get their first good safety and efficacy results from their Phase III trials.

    Everyone was told, make this slight tweak, and you'll almost certainly avoid ADE, which might or did also ruin the first attempt at a SARS vaccine (need to double check that someday). Prior to Phase III trials, the blood work done on participants would have shown ADE was very unlikely. The Phase III trials of the first two companies and their mRNA vaccines show ADE has indeed been avoided, else the people who got the vaccine would have gotten a lot of symptomatic COVID-19 infections, probably a lot of severe infections, and probably a number of deaths.

    Replies: @MGB, @Jack D

  204. @Lot
    @kaganovitch

    “he suddenly morphed into David Souter.”

    He did not.

    This Pizzagate garbage makes nationalists look stupid.

    Replies: @Getaclue, @kaganovitch

    He did not.

    Forget about why; Is it your contention that Roberts has shown no signs of “growth” over the last few years?

  205. @AnotherDad
    @Goatweed


    If Moderna had been allowed to design, produce and sell a vaccine without testing the vaccine, how many people would have died from the vaccine versus how many would have people would have died from the disease given eight months of production at 20 million doses of the vaccine?
     
    There's a contradiction at the heart of Xi virus hysteria:

    If this really is the killer plague of the millennium, you really ought to be kicking aside tedious bureaucracy and regulations and yes incurring some *risk* to get the vaccine out and halt this killer ASAP. (Centuries ago in various places people would actually get "vaccinated" with the less lethal form of smallpox variola-minor which still had a 1% chance of killing you!)

    But they have no interest in doing the risky things you'd do if this was actually deadly.

    Cause ... that's not what this hysteria is about. It's about
    -- our increasingly feminized risk aversion
    -- political control--enabling Big Sister--and expertism
    -- whacking small business, the independent and self-reliant ... people who vote wrong
    -- and most of all ... getting Trump

    When you actually look at the plague ... it's not real impressive.

    It was looking impressive briefly last spring while Cuomo was slaughtering the frail in New York's nursing homes under the rubric of "fighting discrimination"--a performance which wins him the Democrats plaudits and awards.

    But since then it's been an unimpressive cull of the "dry tinder" who were destined to go this year or in the next few. Beyond that it's a blip. They'll be lucky to peg even 10% excess deaths.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

    Replies: @utu, @Mr. Anon, @Hypnotoad666, @Captain Tripps, @Redman

    This is spot on. It’s always been about the excess deaths and those numbers aren’t changing a lot.

    I’ve been watching them closely for a while and they haven’t changed at all in almost 3 months. We’re at still at 10-12% while the dreaded “let her rip” Sweden is still at about 0%.

    And our numbers need to be considered in light of iatrogenic deaths as well as deaths of despair caused by the lockdown. Yet the MSM’s drumbeat for more panic rolls on. We’ve come so far from a country with nothing to fear but fear itself.

    • Replies: @Travis
    @Redman

    Serologic testing of U.S. blood donations from December 2019 were found to have COVID antibodies. Demonstrating that this virus was already spreading for a few months before we even noticed. 7,000 Blood donations were tested and over 100 had the COVID-19 antibodies. https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472

    there is strong evidence that COVID-19 was found in blood donations from the 7 states in the study. Pretty clear this virus was being spread for months before the spike in fatalities occurred when all the nursing homes were hit by the virus. 2021 will see a drop in excess deaths, despite the rise in deaths of despair we are observing. The increase in drugs and suicide deaths year exceeds the COVID deaths for those under the age of 60. We are on track to have a record high number of drug deaths this year, about 10,000 more deaths than in 2019. Suicides are also up by about 5,000 this year. Both suicides and drugs deaths will be at record highs in 2020.

    19,000 Americans under the age of 55 have perished from COVID.
    74,000 Americans under the age of 55 will die of drugs this year.
    30,000 Americans under the age of 55 will commit suicide this year

    Replies: @Jack D, @Twinkie

  206. @Jack D
    @That Would Be Telling

    Covid has really spiked in my suburban Philly county. The number of daily cases recorded is much much higher than the previous April peak, despite the fact that people are supposed to be wearing masks everywhere. When we had far fewer cases in April, people were much more panicked about it but I guess you can only stay in a panic state for so long.

    The number of deaths has not kept up with the rise in cases. During the last wave they were recording up to 60 deaths/day. Then during the summer lull it fell to zero 0r at most 1/day. Now they are back up to as many as 4 per day, but this is nowhere near the previous peak despite there being many more cases.

    Has the disease become less dangerous? Are there better treatments available? Are people getting attenuated cases because they were wearing masks and got a smaller dose of the virus? Has the disease already burned thru the most vulnerable populations so those getting it now are less likely to die from it? I am glad for the fact that this is not killing as many folks, but what is the explanation?

    Replies: @MGB, @Old Prude, @AnotherDad, @prosa123, @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia, @Redman

    More tests. It’s hardly rocket science Jack.

  207. @Thoughts
    "It has been suggested that molecular mimicry may contribute to this problem, with antibodies to SARS-Cov-2 spike glycoproteins cross-reacting with structurally similar host heptapeptide protein sequirences (for example, interleukin 7 and alveolar surfactant proteins) and raising an acute autoimmune response against them. Autoinflammatory dysregulation in genetically susceptible individuals, and other autoimmune mechanisms such as epitope spreading and bystander activation, might also contribute to acute by also chronic autoimmunity during and after Covid-19.

    In the understandable socioeconomic rush towards mass vaccination without longer-term safety testing it would seem that an essential stage in any vaccine licensing process should involve careful analysis of the human proteome against vaccine peptide sequences."

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7499017/

    and alot more papers (just google)

    Anyone in a non-high risk group who takes the mRNA vaccine (or any vaccine) before 2-5 years has passed is a fool.

    End of Discussion.

    And Steve, you have a duty of care to ask this question.

    Replies: @AnotherDad, @Twinkie, @Jack D

    Thanks Thoughts.

    But here’s the deal–my way of thinking:

    I’m going to get the Xi virus eventually if i don’t get the vaccine. (Granted i might be able to slide if a bunch of others get vaccinated … but eventually i’ll get it.)

    The bug will cause me to replicate not just the spike protein, but the whole virus. And keep doing it and doing it until my body’s immune system can squash it.

    In contrast the mRNA vaccines are just making my body replicate the spike protein … and only until they flame out. (I.e. the mRNA vaccine itself is not replicated.)

  208. @That Would Be Telling
    @AnotherDad


    It is these continual antigen shifts that keep the flu popping.
     
    The key detail to that, which gets around mutation rates, is the body's ability to latch onto some part of the virus that is "conserved." For an enzyme, imagine a lock that a key has to fit more or less precisely into. Change the lock too much, and it can't function, "the virus won't virus." So for a lot of RNA viruses without the unique for RNA viruses coronavirus proofreading mechanism, we have "eternal" vaccines because they attack conserved regions.

    For the flu, our bodies simply don't latch onto anything conserved, either in a real wild type flu infection, or our vaccines to date.

    Another note on mutation in this context: it's ecological, potentially many organisms and variants of them are fighting for their niches.

    To take the flues you've experienced, H2N2 displaced the H1N1 family that had been dominate since 1918. Over the next decade, it was under increasing selection pressure to transmit more effectively, so I assume it "mutated," adapted better to humans (a dead or stuck in bed human doesn't transmit it well). It displaced H1N1 in the first place because it transmitted much better because the population was naive, had never seen this variation.

    H3N2, a smaller change, displaced H2N2 a decade later. Again, the population was naive to newer variant, and it transmitted much more effectively than H2N2. Then some #$*@#([email protected]& who had stored a circa 1947-57 H1N1 strain let it escape from their lab around 1976. I assume it didn't make much headway against those over 23 years of age (found that number on Wikipedia, it's right in the middle of the 1947-57 range), but created a reservoir in those younger who'd never before been exposed to an H1N1 strain, or it's strain. That is, while it wasn't new enough to displace H3N2, it got a foothold, and since then we'd have to deal with both H1N1 and H3N2.

    So the current SARS-CoV-2 serotype still has 230 million people who've never seen it if you go by the CDC's estimate of 8X the number of confirmed cases, which is as reasonable guess as any, and thus is under no real selection pressure to change, that is, for a mutation to out compete it, it's transmitting wildly just as it is (in fact, it seems rather well adapted to humans, which you can't say about those new flu variants which we believe jumped over to humans (sort of, flu also hybridizes because its genome is segmented instead of being one long strand); that furthers our suspicions about an artificial origin (ask for details)).

    If between immunity from normal infections and vaccines it starts running out of targets, it would come under selection pressure to get around this immunity. If possible, a mutation that transmits better might replace the existing one. But we might not even care, or notice any time soon, if it say ditched the existing spike as such in favor of one that resulted in it being of true common cold severity. Not in its favor is the proofreading mechanism which limits mutation rates, and various things have to come together for a mutation that's adaptive, "more fit," to actually become a major thing, to move from a toehold in one human to a widely circulating strain.

    So we'll see, but for the foreseeable future, I'm not worried.

    I hope the above adds understanding, I don't think I did quite as good a job explaining it as I could have. Please ask for more if you think it'll help.

    Replies: @AnotherDad, @Twinkie

    that furthers our suspicions about an artificial origin (ask for details)).

    Razib Khan seems to find Alina Chan credible, what, might I ask, is your take on her claims?

    • Replies: @MEH 0910
    @Twinkie

    https://twitter.com/Ayjchan/status/1328098336684052483

    , @That Would Be Telling
    @Twinkie



    (in fact, it seems rather well adapted to humans, which you can’t say about those new flu variants which we believe jumped over to humans (sort of, flu also hybridizes because its genome is segmented instead of being one long strand); that furthers our suspicions about an artificial origin (ask for details)).
     
    Razib Khan seems to find Alina Chan credible, what, might I ask, is your take on her claims?
     
    I took the liberty of including the complete parenthetical comment you're replying to. Based on a doubly unreliable Boston Magazine article ("Wet streets cause rain" inversion of causality per the Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect, and/or falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus), her first conclusion is exactly the one I cite above, "it was already well adapted for human transmission."

    And now you've increased my workload, I've saved three of her papers starting with the one that comes to the above conclusion with supposedly solid molecular genetics data comparing SARS-CoV(-1) evolution to SARS-CoV-2 non-evolution. Thanks!

    Replies: @Twinkie

  209. @Thoughts
    "It has been suggested that molecular mimicry may contribute to this problem, with antibodies to SARS-Cov-2 spike glycoproteins cross-reacting with structurally similar host heptapeptide protein sequirences (for example, interleukin 7 and alveolar surfactant proteins) and raising an acute autoimmune response against them. Autoinflammatory dysregulation in genetically susceptible individuals, and other autoimmune mechanisms such as epitope spreading and bystander activation, might also contribute to acute by also chronic autoimmunity during and after Covid-19.

    In the understandable socioeconomic rush towards mass vaccination without longer-term safety testing it would seem that an essential stage in any vaccine licensing process should involve careful analysis of the human proteome against vaccine peptide sequences."

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7499017/

    and alot more papers (just google)

    Anyone in a non-high risk group who takes the mRNA vaccine (or any vaccine) before 2-5 years has passed is a fool.

    End of Discussion.

    And Steve, you have a duty of care to ask this question.

    Replies: @AnotherDad, @Twinkie, @Jack D

    Anyone in a non-high risk group who takes the mRNA vaccine (or any vaccine) before 2-5 years has passed is a fool.

    Define “non-high risk group,” please. Why “2-5 years”?

  210. anonymous[751] • Disclaimer says:
    @Muggles
    @anonymous

    Everyone is free to take their own risk assessment and draw conclusions about potential vaccines.

    You can call it a "hoax" but few medical doctors/epidemiologists appear to agree.

    Yes, things are shut down, etc. due to fear of this. People are getting sick (or are they all hoaxers too?) Fear does strange things. Like start foreign wars that never end, etc.

    Then some here bitch because Mr. Sailer chooses to write about it or excerpt writings about it. If you don't want to read about the "hoax" go elsewhere, how 'bout that?

    As for all the chest thumpers here yelling 'hoax', I have yet to read anyone doing that who cites their own advanced medical or biological credentials or clinical experience. Not A Single One.

    We already know this is a puzzling development, this WuFlu. Stopping it is very difficult.

    But a lot of people on right wing sites (and others) claimed about 30 years ago that AIDS was also a hoax caused by various minor aliments or nutritional deficiencies. Eventually these people vanished. The science proved out and their cries of hoax all wrong.

    So rant and vent, that's what is done here. But to savagely berate others because they have a different take on things is childish if not a form of mental illness. If you don't like what iSteve posts here, feel free to run your own blog. Or just wait patiently until science proves you right.

    Also, the Biden-Harris era is soon upon us. You'll find better things to complain about with that.

    Replies: @anonymous

    i worked as a researcher in a bsl4 lab on virology (specifically, ebola) with nobel laureates and have a way higher IQ than steve as well as plenty of way better degrees from way better schools in fields related to medical science.

    so i guess now you have heard one.

    aids was also a hoax, you moron. it was a hoax in that it was used to terrify people of my generation when in fact it never, ever affected middle class heterosexual american white people. that is an absolute fact. you’re not even a “conspiracy theorist” if you argue otherwise. you’re just ignorant of the bare facts.

    and when i have a different opinion from steve i’m also free to tell him, you child. i don’t need my own blog to do so–i’m doing it right now.

  211. @utu
    @Julian of Norwich


    "the proportion infected in the experimental group was 0.073%, the proportion in the control group was 1.233%"
     
    These numbers are for T=3 months. If we set T to infinity all 15,000 in control group will get infected while only 15,000*(o.073/1.233)=888 will get infected in the vaccinated group which is 6% of 15,000.

    By vaccinating everybody you save 94% of population as opposed to not vaccinating anybody. However to save 94% of population you do not have to vaccinate everybody because the herd immunity will kick in at much lower level of vaccination prevalence and actually you may save more than 94%. This is true for a well mixed model. In not well mixed vaccinated-to-not-vaccinated population at say 70% prevalence local clusters of flare ups may happen like at libertarian conventions, bikers rallies and anti-vaxxer seances.

    Replies: @Anon

    @ “ local clusters of flare ups may happen like at libertarian conventions, bikers rallies and anti-vaxxer seances.”

    😂 damn I don’t have a bigger emoji

  212. @Twinkie
    @That Would Be Telling


    that furthers our suspicions about an artificial origin (ask for details)).
     
    Razib Khan seems to find Alina Chan credible, what, might I ask, is your take on her claims?

    Replies: @MEH 0910, @That Would Be Telling

  213. @utu
    @Bert

    Lots of room in cellars and basements in Moldova. Plenty of wine and no mold.

    The World’s Largest Wine Cellar is in Moldova
    https://www.thevintagenews.com/2019/03/12/wine-cellar-in-moldova/

    Replies: @Captain Tripps

    That’s all fine and dandy, but is the wine GOOD? I’ve not read anywhere that Moldovan wines are top of the line internationally; but it could be true that this is an undiscovered treasure trove. Then again, wine is not my thing, though I do enjoy an occasional glass. I am more of a whiskey (or whisky, if you prefer) man…

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Captain Tripps

    I wouldn't say top of the line, but some Moldovan wines, such as those from the Purcari winery meet international standards of quality and get decent if not amazing reviews (Lafite has nothing to worry about). Maybe because they are not widely distributed in the US, they aren't particularly great bargains here - frankly for $25/ bottle you could do better. Probably they sell mostly to homesick Moldovans. But I'll bet that in Moldova these wines go for a small fraction of that price.

    https://www.vivino.com/chateau-purcari-negru-de-purcari/w/1984742

    The one with the largest wine cellar, Mileștii Mici, is more akin to Gallo, if Gallo was state-0wned. The emphasis is on quantity and low price. OTOH, it may be among the finest $2.34 bottles of wine you can get, if you can get it:

    https://www.vivino.com/milestii-mici-cabernet-sauvignon/w/1125744?cart_item_source=referrer-www.google.com

    Many are sweet wines in a style that is not popular in the West.

    I assume back in Moldova this stuff goes for pennies. OTOH, the average Moldovan only makes pennies - their per capita GDP is at African levels.

    , @utu
    @Captain Tripps

    I do not know about Moldovan wines, but in 1980s Trader's Joe in Pasadena had inexpensive Romanian wines and they were good.

    Replies: @Twinkie

  214. @Thoughts
    "It has been suggested that molecular mimicry may contribute to this problem, with antibodies to SARS-Cov-2 spike glycoproteins cross-reacting with structurally similar host heptapeptide protein sequirences (for example, interleukin 7 and alveolar surfactant proteins) and raising an acute autoimmune response against them. Autoinflammatory dysregulation in genetically susceptible individuals, and other autoimmune mechanisms such as epitope spreading and bystander activation, might also contribute to acute by also chronic autoimmunity during and after Covid-19.

    In the understandable socioeconomic rush towards mass vaccination without longer-term safety testing it would seem that an essential stage in any vaccine licensing process should involve careful analysis of the human proteome against vaccine peptide sequences."

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7499017/

    and alot more papers (just google)

    Anyone in a non-high risk group who takes the mRNA vaccine (or any vaccine) before 2-5 years has passed is a fool.

    End of Discussion.

    And Steve, you have a duty of care to ask this question.

    Replies: @AnotherDad, @Twinkie, @Jack D

    If you were weighing just the vaccine against nothing you might be right but, even for low risk individuals, you have to weigh the vaccine against the risk of getting Covid, which you will sooner or later the way things are going. If the spike protein from the vaccine is going to give you an autoimmune reaction, the one from the virus is going to give you one bigtime, because the virus is much more infectious. So do you want a little spike protein now or a WHOLE LOT later? Your choice.

    Also how is it that none of the vaccines have produced autoimmune reactions to date? It’s possible that these are late occurring side effects but doubtful. You would expect the autoimmune reaction to be the strongest when you have the most antibodies in your system, i.e. shortly after you have taken the vaccine. How many years do you have to wait to see if these effects don’t occur? One? Two? Ten? Twenty?

  215. @MGB
    @botazefa

    MRNA and the super duper proprietary nano goop wrapping the vaccine engineered to trick your immune system not to obliterate the vaccine. Oh and it stops the vaccine from collapsing like a soufflé, just ask DARPA, I mean moderna. It’s a desert topping and a floor cleaner all in one.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    MRNA and the super duper proprietary nano goop wrapping the vaccine engineered to trick your immune system not to obliterate the vaccine. Oh and it stops the vaccine from collapsing like a soufflé, just ask DARPA, I mean moderna. It’s a desert topping and a floor cleaner all in one.

    Nothing in the mRNA technology per se stops the spike protein “from collapsing like a soufflé, just ask DARPA.” Per this article, it was a lab in Saint Fauci’s institute that found a solution for the antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) that ruined the first attempt at an RSV vaccine with deadly results, see also dengue, and in a research effort derived from it this was successfully applied to first a safer to work with human coronavirus and then SARS/MERS type spike proteins, all this before SARS-CoV-2 showed up.

    This work involves a slight modification of the spike protein to stabilize it (see the above link and its great illustrations), and thus the mRNA or DNA coding for it in the Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, and Janssen vaccines. I’ve read an unreliable report that the clown show of Oxford didn’t use it, and now that I think of it, I haven’t investigated this for Sputnik V, but neither are of much interest to me until they get their first good safety and efficacy results from their Phase III trials.

    Everyone was told, make this slight tweak, and you’ll almost certainly avoid ADE, which might or did also ruin the first attempt at a SARS vaccine (need to double check that someday). Prior to Phase III trials, the blood work done on participants would have shown ADE was very unlikely. The Phase III trials of the first two companies and their mRNA vaccines show ADE has indeed been avoided, else the people who got the vaccine would have gotten a lot of symptomatic COVID-19 infections, probably a lot of severe infections, and probably a number of deaths.

    • Thanks: MEH 0910
    • Replies: @MGB
    @That Would Be Telling

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/17/935563377/why-does-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-need-to-be-kept-colder-than-antarctica


    Vaccines made from mRNA can be made much faster than older vaccines could, explains Margaret Liu, a vaccine researcher who chairs the board of the International Society for Vaccines and specializes in genetic vaccines. The problem, says Liu, is that mRNA is "really easily destroyed, and that's because there are many, many enzymes that will just break it apart."

    Here's an analogy: Think of the vaccine as a chocolate bar that melts easily. Just as there are ways to keep the chocolate from melting into goo, there are things the drugmakers did to protect their COVID-19 vaccines.

    The first step, Liu says, was to modify the mRNA nucleosides — the "building blocks" of the RNA vaccine. "They've used modified versions because those are more stable," she says. This would be like changing the chocolate recipe so it's not quite so melty.

    The next step was to use lipid nanoparticles, which, Liu explains, "is kind of like putting your chocolate inside a candy coating — you have an M&M, so the chocolate doesn't melt."

    But even with the stabilized building blocks and lipid coating, the mRNA could still fall apart easily, which is why the vaccine is frozen.

    "Everything happens more slowly as you lower the temperature," Liu says. "So your chemical reactions — the enzymes that break down RNA — are going to happen more slowly." It's the same idea as freezing food to keep it from spoiling.

    Because the specific formulations are secret, Liu says, it's not clear exactly why these two mRNA vaccines have different temperature requirements.

    "It just comes down to what their data is," she says of Moderna's vaccine. "If their data shows that it's more stable at a certain temperature, that's it."

    Moderna spokesperson Colleen Hussey explained to NPR in an email that its vaccine doesn't need to be kept so cold because of its particular "lipid nanoparticle properties and structure," and because the company has learned from experience — it's developed ten mRNA vaccine candidates already. "Now we don't need [ultra-cold conditions] as the quality of product has improved and [it] doesn't need to be highly frozen to avoid mRNA degradation," Hussey explained.

     

    moderna has been roundly criticized for its emphasis on the press release as a medium for scientific review, and i am not optimistic that the 'development of ten mRNA vaccine candidates' necessarily includes 'extensive, time-consuming thermostability studies needed to figure out a vaccine's temperature requirements' referred to elsewhere in the article. noone will be able to analyze the nano component of the vaccine any time soon, and i am not aware of any release of data about thermostability studies, by moderna or pfizer, but i'd be happy to read it if it's available. 'if moderna's data says it's more stable at a certain temperature, then that's it', is not all that reassuring.
    , @Jack D
    @That Would Be Telling

    Great article. Thanks for the link. The shorter version is that the real spike protein is like a folded up spring which unfolds when it grabs onto and fuses with a cell and the spike protein in the vaccine has had some molecular twist ties added so that the spring can never unfold and actually fuse with your cells. But the pre-fusion (unfolded) shape of the spike protein is the same so that the antibodies that your body creates for the vaccine spike protein also work against the real spike protein in the virus. But ADE is triggered only by injected the post-fusion (unfolded) form of the protein and since you are not doing that there is no ADE reaction.

    Replies: @Jack D, @That Would Be Telling

  216. @That Would Be Telling
    @MGB


    MRNA and the super duper proprietary nano goop wrapping the vaccine engineered to trick your immune system not to obliterate the vaccine. Oh and it stops the vaccine from collapsing like a soufflé, just ask DARPA, I mean moderna. It’s a desert topping and a floor cleaner all in one.
     
    Nothing in the mRNA technology per se stops the spike protein "from collapsing like a soufflé, just ask DARPA." Per this article, it was a lab in Saint Fauci's institute that found a solution for the antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) that ruined the first attempt at an RSV vaccine with deadly results, see also dengue, and in a research effort derived from it this was successfully applied to first a safer to work with human coronavirus and then SARS/MERS type spike proteins, all this before SARS-CoV-2 showed up.

    This work involves a slight modification of the spike protein to stabilize it (see the above link and its great illustrations), and thus the mRNA or DNA coding for it in the Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, and Janssen vaccines. I've read an unreliable report that the clown show of Oxford didn't use it, and now that I think of it, I haven't investigated this for Sputnik V, but neither are of much interest to me until they get their first good safety and efficacy results from their Phase III trials.

    Everyone was told, make this slight tweak, and you'll almost certainly avoid ADE, which might or did also ruin the first attempt at a SARS vaccine (need to double check that someday). Prior to Phase III trials, the blood work done on participants would have shown ADE was very unlikely. The Phase III trials of the first two companies and their mRNA vaccines show ADE has indeed been avoided, else the people who got the vaccine would have gotten a lot of symptomatic COVID-19 infections, probably a lot of severe infections, and probably a number of deaths.

    Replies: @MGB, @Jack D

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/17/935563377/why-does-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-need-to-be-kept-colder-than-antarctica

    Vaccines made from mRNA can be made much faster than older vaccines could, explains Margaret Liu, a vaccine researcher who chairs the board of the International Society for Vaccines and specializes in genetic vaccines. The problem, says Liu, is that mRNA is “really easily destroyed, and that’s because there are many, many enzymes that will just break it apart.”

    Here’s an analogy: Think of the vaccine as a chocolate bar that melts easily. Just as there are ways to keep the chocolate from melting into goo, there are things the drugmakers did to protect their COVID-19 vaccines.

    The first step, Liu says, was to modify the mRNA nucleosides — the “building blocks” of the RNA vaccine. “They’ve used modified versions because those are more stable,” she says. This would be like changing the chocolate recipe so it’s not quite so melty.

    The next step was to use lipid nanoparticles, which, Liu explains, “is kind of like putting your chocolate inside a candy coating — you have an M&M, so the chocolate doesn’t melt.”

    But even with the stabilized building blocks and lipid coating, the mRNA could still fall apart easily, which is why the vaccine is frozen.

    “Everything happens more slowly as you lower the temperature,” Liu says. “So your chemical reactions — the enzymes that break down RNA — are going to happen more slowly.” It’s the same idea as freezing food to keep it from spoiling.

    Because the specific formulations are secret, Liu says, it’s not clear exactly why these two mRNA vaccines have different temperature requirements.

    “It just comes down to what their data is,” she says of Moderna’s vaccine. “If their data shows that it’s more stable at a certain temperature, that’s it.”

    Moderna spokesperson Colleen Hussey explained to NPR in an email that its vaccine doesn’t need to be kept so cold because of its particular “lipid nanoparticle properties and structure,” and because the company has learned from experience — it’s developed ten mRNA vaccine candidates already. “Now we don’t need [ultra-cold conditions] as the quality of product has improved and [it] doesn’t need to be highly frozen to avoid mRNA degradation,” Hussey explained.

    moderna has been roundly criticized for its emphasis on the press release as a medium for scientific review, and i am not optimistic that the ‘development of ten mRNA vaccine candidates’ necessarily includes ‘extensive, time-consuming thermostability studies needed to figure out a vaccine’s temperature requirements’ referred to elsewhere in the article. noone will be able to analyze the nano component of the vaccine any time soon, and i am not aware of any release of data about thermostability studies, by moderna or pfizer, but i’d be happy to read it if it’s available. ‘if moderna’s data says it’s more stable at a certain temperature, then that’s it’, is not all that reassuring.

  217. @That Would Be Telling
    @MGB


    MRNA and the super duper proprietary nano goop wrapping the vaccine engineered to trick your immune system not to obliterate the vaccine. Oh and it stops the vaccine from collapsing like a soufflé, just ask DARPA, I mean moderna. It’s a desert topping and a floor cleaner all in one.
     
    Nothing in the mRNA technology per se stops the spike protein "from collapsing like a soufflé, just ask DARPA." Per this article, it was a lab in Saint Fauci's institute that found a solution for the antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) that ruined the first attempt at an RSV vaccine with deadly results, see also dengue, and in a research effort derived from it this was successfully applied to first a safer to work with human coronavirus and then SARS/MERS type spike proteins, all this before SARS-CoV-2 showed up.

    This work involves a slight modification of the spike protein to stabilize it (see the above link and its great illustrations), and thus the mRNA or DNA coding for it in the Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, and Janssen vaccines. I've read an unreliable report that the clown show of Oxford didn't use it, and now that I think of it, I haven't investigated this for Sputnik V, but neither are of much interest to me until they get their first good safety and efficacy results from their Phase III trials.

    Everyone was told, make this slight tweak, and you'll almost certainly avoid ADE, which might or did also ruin the first attempt at a SARS vaccine (need to double check that someday). Prior to Phase III trials, the blood work done on participants would have shown ADE was very unlikely. The Phase III trials of the first two companies and their mRNA vaccines show ADE has indeed been avoided, else the people who got the vaccine would have gotten a lot of symptomatic COVID-19 infections, probably a lot of severe infections, and probably a number of deaths.

    Replies: @MGB, @Jack D

    Great article. Thanks for the link. The shorter version is that the real spike protein is like a folded up spring which unfolds when it grabs onto and fuses with a cell and the spike protein in the vaccine has had some molecular twist ties added so that the spring can never unfold and actually fuse with your cells. But the pre-fusion (unfolded) shape of the spike protein is the same so that the antibodies that your body creates for the vaccine spike protein also work against the real spike protein in the virus. But ADE is triggered only by injected the post-fusion (unfolded) form of the protein and since you are not doing that there is no ADE reaction.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Jack D

    " But the pre-fusion (unfolded) shape " should read "(folded)".

    Here is a picture of the folded up spike protein and the little red things are the twist ties that have been added to the natural protein to keep it from unfolding.

    https://acs-h.assetsadobe.com/is/image//content/dam/cen/98/38/WEB/09838-feature1-hexapro.jpg

    , @That Would Be Telling
    @Jack D

    You made a couple of typos with this marvelous analogy that's I'm now using to help explain the spike protein stabilization, "But the pre-fusion (unfolded) shape of the spike protein...." The "unfolded" in parens should be folded. And "injection" should be dropped in the last sentence. Otherwise quite a marvelous explanation, really the only thing you might add is that ADE come from an initial weak immune system response, which too much of the unfolded form in a vaccine can generate.

  218. @Twinkie
    @That Would Be Telling


    that furthers our suspicions about an artificial origin (ask for details)).
     
    Razib Khan seems to find Alina Chan credible, what, might I ask, is your take on her claims?

    Replies: @MEH 0910, @That Would Be Telling

    (in fact, it seems rather well adapted to humans, which you can’t say about those new flu variants which we believe jumped over to humans (sort of, flu also hybridizes because its genome is segmented instead of being one long strand); that furthers our suspicions about an artificial origin (ask for details)).

    Razib Khan seems to find Alina Chan credible, what, might I ask, is your take on her claims?

    I took the liberty of including the complete parenthetical comment you’re replying to. Based on a doubly unreliable Boston Magazine article (“Wet streets cause rain” inversion of causality per the Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect, and/or falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus), her first conclusion is exactly the one I cite above, “it was already well adapted for human transmission.”

    And now you’ve increased my workload, I’ve saved three of her papers starting with the one that comes to the above conclusion with supposedly solid molecular genetics data comparing SARS-CoV(-1) evolution to SARS-CoV-2 non-evolution. Thanks!

    • Replies: @Twinkie
    @That Would Be Telling


    “it was already well adapted for human transmission.”
     
    Yes, indeed. That's why I brought up Alina Chan.

    And now you’ve increased my workload, I’ve saved three of her papers starting with the one that comes to the above conclusion with supposedly solid molecular genetics data comparing SARS-CoV(-1) evolution to SARS-CoV-2 non-evolution. Thanks!
     
    If you could read her papers and opine, the appreciation will be all from my end! Sorry about the extra work and I look forward to reading your view.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  219. @Jack D
    @That Would Be Telling

    Great article. Thanks for the link. The shorter version is that the real spike protein is like a folded up spring which unfolds when it grabs onto and fuses with a cell and the spike protein in the vaccine has had some molecular twist ties added so that the spring can never unfold and actually fuse with your cells. But the pre-fusion (unfolded) shape of the spike protein is the same so that the antibodies that your body creates for the vaccine spike protein also work against the real spike protein in the virus. But ADE is triggered only by injected the post-fusion (unfolded) form of the protein and since you are not doing that there is no ADE reaction.

    Replies: @Jack D, @That Would Be Telling

    ” But the pre-fusion (unfolded) shape ” should read “(folded)”.

    Here is a picture of the folded up spike protein and the little red things are the twist ties that have been added to the natural protein to keep it from unfolding.

  220. @Redman
    @AnotherDad

    This is spot on. It’s always been about the excess deaths and those numbers aren’t changing a lot.

    I’ve been watching them closely for a while and they haven’t changed at all in almost 3 months. We’re at still at 10-12% while the dreaded “let her rip” Sweden is still at about 0%.

    And our numbers need to be considered in light of iatrogenic deaths as well as deaths of despair caused by the lockdown. Yet the MSM’s drumbeat for more panic rolls on. We’ve come so far from a country with nothing to fear but fear itself.

    Replies: @Travis

    Serologic testing of U.S. blood donations from December 2019 were found to have COVID antibodies. Demonstrating that this virus was already spreading for a few months before we even noticed. 7,000 Blood donations were tested and over 100 had the COVID-19 antibodies. https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472

    there is strong evidence that COVID-19 was found in blood donations from the 7 states in the study. Pretty clear this virus was being spread for months before the spike in fatalities occurred when all the nursing homes were hit by the virus. 2021 will see a drop in excess deaths, despite the rise in deaths of despair we are observing. The increase in drugs and suicide deaths year exceeds the COVID deaths for those under the age of 60. We are on track to have a record high number of drug deaths this year, about 10,000 more deaths than in 2019. Suicides are also up by about 5,000 this year. Both suicides and drugs deaths will be at record highs in 2020.

    19,000 Americans under the age of 55 have perished from COVID.
    74,000 Americans under the age of 55 will die of drugs this year.
    30,000 Americans under the age of 55 will commit suicide this year

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Travis

    Sure if you slice and dice the numbers just so, Covid doesn't seem that bad. There's no question that Covid kills mainly old people but it kills a LOT of old people - so far 80,000 from 55-74 and 140,000 age 75 and up. That's a seriously large # of old people, many of whom had a good few years of life left before this came along.

    Replies: @MGB

    , @Twinkie
    @Travis


    Serologic testing of U.S. blood donations from December 2019 were found to have COVID antibodies. Demonstrating that this virus was already spreading for a few months before we even noticed. 7,000 Blood donations were tested and over 100 had the COVID-19 antibodies. https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472
     
    This was a big topic of discussion at my wife's hospital today.

    It just so happens, one employee of hers had mysterious, flu-like symptoms in December of last year, followed by several more employees. I think almost everyone on the floor got it. My wife also eventually had this "flu" and she spread it to me, leading me to have a "flu" for the first time in a decade or more (it was certainly the worst flu I had in my life). One of our children had a very mild flu-like symptoms at the time and two had even milder cold-like symptoms. The rest of the children were asymptomatic. All of us were immunized for the flu.

    We just all assumed this was the seasonal flu, a variant not covered by the vaccine (my wife tested positive for the flu while I tested negative).

    Also, a local long-term care facility had a spread of mysterious flu-like symptoms about the same time and several residents died.

    My wife and I are going to donate blood and see what the screening says.

    Replies: @MGB

  221. @Travis
    @Redman

    Serologic testing of U.S. blood donations from December 2019 were found to have COVID antibodies. Demonstrating that this virus was already spreading for a few months before we even noticed. 7,000 Blood donations were tested and over 100 had the COVID-19 antibodies. https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472

    there is strong evidence that COVID-19 was found in blood donations from the 7 states in the study. Pretty clear this virus was being spread for months before the spike in fatalities occurred when all the nursing homes were hit by the virus. 2021 will see a drop in excess deaths, despite the rise in deaths of despair we are observing. The increase in drugs and suicide deaths year exceeds the COVID deaths for those under the age of 60. We are on track to have a record high number of drug deaths this year, about 10,000 more deaths than in 2019. Suicides are also up by about 5,000 this year. Both suicides and drugs deaths will be at record highs in 2020.

    19,000 Americans under the age of 55 have perished from COVID.
    74,000 Americans under the age of 55 will die of drugs this year.
    30,000 Americans under the age of 55 will commit suicide this year

    Replies: @Jack D, @Twinkie

    Sure if you slice and dice the numbers just so, Covid doesn’t seem that bad. There’s no question that Covid kills mainly old people but it kills a LOT of old people – so far 80,000 from 55-74 and 140,000 age 75 and up. That’s a seriously large # of old people, many of whom had a good few years of life left before this came along.

    • Replies: @MGB
    @Jack D

    i don't see travis slicing and dicing any numbers. he is pointing out that there are serious consequences to the covid responses that people ignore. somehow you've glossed over that opining about the old people who lost many goods years. i don't know how you would know that given the state of health of the majority of 'covid deaths', an imprecise term to begin with. and if 2/3 of the deaths in my state occurred in long term care facilities, a clinical euphemism for nursing homes, as gruesome as it may sound, people are sent to nursing homes to die. this pandemic is more an indictment of the general state of health of americans, and, yes, the piss poor care most elderly get in nursing homes, than the deadliness of the virus.

  222. @Captain Tripps
    @utu

    That's all fine and dandy, but is the wine GOOD? I've not read anywhere that Moldovan wines are top of the line internationally; but it could be true that this is an undiscovered treasure trove. Then again, wine is not my thing, though I do enjoy an occasional glass. I am more of a whiskey (or whisky, if you prefer) man...

    Replies: @Jack D, @utu

    I wouldn’t say top of the line, but some Moldovan wines, such as those from the Purcari winery meet international standards of quality and get decent if not amazing reviews (Lafite has nothing to worry about). Maybe because they are not widely distributed in the US, they aren’t particularly great bargains here – frankly for $25/ bottle you could do better. Probably they sell mostly to homesick Moldovans. But I’ll bet that in Moldova these wines go for a small fraction of that price.

    https://www.vivino.com/chateau-purcari-negru-de-purcari/w/1984742

    The one with the largest wine cellar, Mileștii Mici, is more akin to Gallo, if Gallo was state-0wned. The emphasis is on quantity and low price. OTOH, it may be among the finest $2.34 bottles of wine you can get, if you can get it:

    https://www.vivino.com/milestii-mici-cabernet-sauvignon/w/1125744?cart_item_source=referrer-www.google.com

    Many are sweet wines in a style that is not popular in the West.

    I assume back in Moldova this stuff goes for pennies. OTOH, the average Moldovan only makes pennies – their per capita GDP is at African levels.

  223. @Jack D
    @Travis

    Sure if you slice and dice the numbers just so, Covid doesn't seem that bad. There's no question that Covid kills mainly old people but it kills a LOT of old people - so far 80,000 from 55-74 and 140,000 age 75 and up. That's a seriously large # of old people, many of whom had a good few years of life left before this came along.

    Replies: @MGB

    i don’t see travis slicing and dicing any numbers. he is pointing out that there are serious consequences to the covid responses that people ignore. somehow you’ve glossed over that opining about the old people who lost many goods years. i don’t know how you would know that given the state of health of the majority of ‘covid deaths’, an imprecise term to begin with. and if 2/3 of the deaths in my state occurred in long term care facilities, a clinical euphemism for nursing homes, as gruesome as it may sound, people are sent to nursing homes to die. this pandemic is more an indictment of the general state of health of americans, and, yes, the piss poor care most elderly get in nursing homes, than the deadliness of the virus.

  224. @Captain Tripps
    @utu

    That's all fine and dandy, but is the wine GOOD? I've not read anywhere that Moldovan wines are top of the line internationally; but it could be true that this is an undiscovered treasure trove. Then again, wine is not my thing, though I do enjoy an occasional glass. I am more of a whiskey (or whisky, if you prefer) man...

    Replies: @Jack D, @utu

    I do not know about Moldovan wines, but in 1980s Trader’s Joe in Pasadena had inexpensive Romanian wines and they were good.

    • Replies: @Twinkie
    @utu

    I still remember when Australian Shiraz was a bargain at just about every price level.

    Good times don't last.

  225. @theo the kraut
    OT, I happened to stumble on this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O33gPFvFXvI

    »It was the wedding of the year in the Hasidic world. More than 10,000 guests arrived at the Sanz Hasidic headquarters in Netanya to celebrate the wedding of Meir Meshulam, son of Sanz Grand Rabbi Tzvi Elimelech Halberstam, the Klausenberger Rebbe of Netanya, to his cousin, Bracha Unsdorfer.«

    Replies: @Thoughts, @Inquiring Mind, @Jack D, @Dissident

    It was the wedding of the year in the Hasidic world.

    That year being 2009, as Jack D pointed-out. You don’t have to take his or my word for it, though; it’s right there in the video title,

    Chosson Kallah Mitzvah Tanz – Sanz Klausenburg Wedding In Israel 2009 Part 27

    It should perhaps be noted, as well, that there a number of indications that this particular Hasidic sect (Sanz-Klausenburg) is among those that have taken the threat of the SARS-COV-2/Covid-19 far more seriously than many others. Examples include the funeral of the bridegroom’s grandmother (limited to immediate family members) who died this past April at the age of 96; and public exhortations and chastisements delivered/issued to congregants by some of their top rabbis.

    • Replies: @theo the kraut
    @Dissident

    > That year being 2009, as Jack D pointed-out

    It didn't claim otherwise.

    > the wedding of Meir Meshulam ... to his cousin, Bracha Unsdorfer.

    That's what I find remarkable. I'd expect them to not divulge that gratuitously, given that there's widespread opprobrium against cousin marriage in Western countries, still, they don't seem to care. The very fact seems important to their dynasty, they're likely proud of keeping the bloodline pure.

    Replies: @Jack D

  226. @That Would Be Telling
    @Twinkie



    (in fact, it seems rather well adapted to humans, which you can’t say about those new flu variants which we believe jumped over to humans (sort of, flu also hybridizes because its genome is segmented instead of being one long strand); that furthers our suspicions about an artificial origin (ask for details)).
     
    Razib Khan seems to find Alina Chan credible, what, might I ask, is your take on her claims?
     
    I took the liberty of including the complete parenthetical comment you're replying to. Based on a doubly unreliable Boston Magazine article ("Wet streets cause rain" inversion of causality per the Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect, and/or falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus), her first conclusion is exactly the one I cite above, "it was already well adapted for human transmission."

    And now you've increased my workload, I've saved three of her papers starting with the one that comes to the above conclusion with supposedly solid molecular genetics data comparing SARS-CoV(-1) evolution to SARS-CoV-2 non-evolution. Thanks!

    Replies: @Twinkie

    “it was already well adapted for human transmission.”

    Yes, indeed. That’s why I brought up Alina Chan.

    And now you’ve increased my workload, I’ve saved three of her papers starting with the one that comes to the above conclusion with supposedly solid molecular genetics data comparing SARS-CoV(-1) evolution to SARS-CoV-2 non-evolution. Thanks!

    If you could read her papers and opine, the appreciation will be all from my end! Sorry about the extra work and I look forward to reading your view.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Twinkie


    If you could read [Alina Chan's] papers and opine, the appreciation will be all from my end! Sorry about the extra work and I look forward to reading your view.
     
    It won't be any time soon unless on a whim, I can't justify the diversion from my other STEM work, for biomedicine, just a focus on the vaccines for my friends and myself, and even that not very intense yet because none of us are in the US Phases 1a and 1b, and for some of them only in Phase 1c by being over 65. But I have set a reminder to update you when I do. Thanks again for pointing me at her work.
  227. @utu
    @Captain Tripps

    I do not know about Moldovan wines, but in 1980s Trader's Joe in Pasadena had inexpensive Romanian wines and they were good.

    Replies: @Twinkie

    I still remember when Australian Shiraz was a bargain at just about every price level.

    Good times don’t last.

  228. @Travis
    @Redman

    Serologic testing of U.S. blood donations from December 2019 were found to have COVID antibodies. Demonstrating that this virus was already spreading for a few months before we even noticed. 7,000 Blood donations were tested and over 100 had the COVID-19 antibodies. https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472

    there is strong evidence that COVID-19 was found in blood donations from the 7 states in the study. Pretty clear this virus was being spread for months before the spike in fatalities occurred when all the nursing homes were hit by the virus. 2021 will see a drop in excess deaths, despite the rise in deaths of despair we are observing. The increase in drugs and suicide deaths year exceeds the COVID deaths for those under the age of 60. We are on track to have a record high number of drug deaths this year, about 10,000 more deaths than in 2019. Suicides are also up by about 5,000 this year. Both suicides and drugs deaths will be at record highs in 2020.

    19,000 Americans under the age of 55 have perished from COVID.
    74,000 Americans under the age of 55 will die of drugs this year.
    30,000 Americans under the age of 55 will commit suicide this year

    Replies: @Jack D, @Twinkie

    Serologic testing of U.S. blood donations from December 2019 were found to have COVID antibodies. Demonstrating that this virus was already spreading for a few months before we even noticed. 7,000 Blood donations were tested and over 100 had the COVID-19 antibodies. https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472

    This was a big topic of discussion at my wife’s hospital today.

    It just so happens, one employee of hers had mysterious, flu-like symptoms in December of last year, followed by several more employees. I think almost everyone on the floor got it. My wife also eventually had this “flu” and she spread it to me, leading me to have a “flu” for the first time in a decade or more (it was certainly the worst flu I had in my life). One of our children had a very mild flu-like symptoms at the time and two had even milder cold-like symptoms. The rest of the children were asymptomatic. All of us were immunized for the flu.

    We just all assumed this was the seasonal flu, a variant not covered by the vaccine (my wife tested positive for the flu while I tested negative).

    Also, a local long-term care facility had a spread of mysterious flu-like symptoms about the same time and several residents died.

    My wife and I are going to donate blood and see what the screening says.

    • Replies: @MGB
    @Twinkie

    Both Italy and Spain have evidence of the virus earlier in 2019. IIRC whatever institute measures such things found the virus in samples of waste water in Barcelona dating from the summer of 2019. My son and I both had a respiratory issue of some sort also December 2019. The only significant symptom was decreased lung capacity during exercise. FWIW.

  229. @Twinkie
    @Travis


    Serologic testing of U.S. blood donations from December 2019 were found to have COVID antibodies. Demonstrating that this virus was already spreading for a few months before we even noticed. 7,000 Blood donations were tested and over 100 had the COVID-19 antibodies. https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472
     
    This was a big topic of discussion at my wife's hospital today.

    It just so happens, one employee of hers had mysterious, flu-like symptoms in December of last year, followed by several more employees. I think almost everyone on the floor got it. My wife also eventually had this "flu" and she spread it to me, leading me to have a "flu" for the first time in a decade or more (it was certainly the worst flu I had in my life). One of our children had a very mild flu-like symptoms at the time and two had even milder cold-like symptoms. The rest of the children were asymptomatic. All of us were immunized for the flu.

    We just all assumed this was the seasonal flu, a variant not covered by the vaccine (my wife tested positive for the flu while I tested negative).

    Also, a local long-term care facility had a spread of mysterious flu-like symptoms about the same time and several residents died.

    My wife and I are going to donate blood and see what the screening says.

    Replies: @MGB

    Both Italy and Spain have evidence of the virus earlier in 2019. IIRC whatever institute measures such things found the virus in samples of waste water in Barcelona dating from the summer of 2019. My son and I both had a respiratory issue of some sort also December 2019. The only significant symptom was decreased lung capacity during exercise. FWIW.

  230. @Dissident
    @theo the kraut


    It was the wedding of the year in the Hasidic world.
     
    That year being 2009, as Jack D pointed-out. You don't have to take his or my word for it, though; it's right there in the video title,

    Chosson Kallah Mitzvah Tanz - Sanz Klausenburg Wedding In Israel 2009 Part 27
     
    It should perhaps be noted, as well, that there a number of indications that this particular Hasidic sect (Sanz-Klausenburg) is among those that have taken the threat of the SARS-COV-2/Covid-19 far more seriously than many others. Examples include the funeral of the bridegroom's grandmother (limited to immediate family members) who died this past April at the age of 96; and public exhortations and chastisements delivered/issued to congregants by some of their top rabbis.

    Replies: @theo the kraut

    > That year being 2009, as Jack D pointed-out

    It didn’t claim otherwise.

    > the wedding of Meir Meshulam … to his cousin, Bracha Unsdorfer.

    That’s what I find remarkable. I’d expect them to not divulge that gratuitously, given that there’s widespread opprobrium against cousin marriage in Western countries, still, they don’t seem to care. The very fact seems important to their dynasty, they’re likely proud of keeping the bloodline pure.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @theo the kraut

    The wedding took place in Israel where such marriages are completely legal under both secular and Jewish religious law. Even in the US, the states are almost equally divided on cousin marriage and NY, where most Hasidim live, it is fully legal. The Catholic Church, for some strange reason, had a strong taboo against any sort of cousin marriage (and not just 1st cousins) but, like polygamy, the majority of societies permit it. The Western Christian POV is not the only POV possible. It was not (as far as people of other religions are concerned) decreed by God. They had absolutely no reason to hide this as far as they were concerned.

    Replies: @Twinkie, @Dissident, @Hypnotoad666

  231. @Anonymous
    Blacks might as well trust the “white man’s vaccine”, because I’m quite certain, that there will not be, a “black man’s vaccine .” Is this really where we are now? If people are only going to use things invented by their own race, there’s going to be a lot of desperate people running around with nothing.

    Replies: @Lockean Proviso, @Hannah Katz, @Nicholas Stix

    They trust the White man’s money, the White man’s cell phones, the White man’s computers, etc. It’s a combination of black supremacist paranoia and posturing.

    Besides, who cares if they want to take the vax?! Whatever they do, they’ll find a way to blame the White devils for something. And many will publicly claim they won’t get the vax, but will privately.

  232. @theo the kraut
    @Dissident

    > That year being 2009, as Jack D pointed-out

    It didn't claim otherwise.

    > the wedding of Meir Meshulam ... to his cousin, Bracha Unsdorfer.

    That's what I find remarkable. I'd expect them to not divulge that gratuitously, given that there's widespread opprobrium against cousin marriage in Western countries, still, they don't seem to care. The very fact seems important to their dynasty, they're likely proud of keeping the bloodline pure.

    Replies: @Jack D

    The wedding took place in Israel where such marriages are completely legal under both secular and Jewish religious law. Even in the US, the states are almost equally divided on cousin marriage and NY, where most Hasidim live, it is fully legal. The Catholic Church, for some strange reason, had a strong taboo against any sort of cousin marriage (and not just 1st cousins) but, like polygamy, the majority of societies permit it. The Western Christian POV is not the only POV possible. It was not (as far as people of other religions are concerned) decreed by God. They had absolutely no reason to hide this as far as they were concerned.

    • Replies: @Twinkie
    @Jack D


    The Catholic Church, for some strange reason, had a strong taboo against any sort of cousin marriage
     
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/51710349-the-weirdest-people-in-the-world

    You’re welcome.

    Replies: @Jack D, @theo the kraut

    , @Dissident
    @Jack D

    Agree, certainly, with what you wrote concerning the legality of cousin marriage, and its normativity among Hasidim.

    Not sure, though, that I would go so far as to characterize the taboo against the practice-- whether from the Church of Rome or anyone else-- as "strange".

    What about risk of genetic defects? This may no longer be much, if any, of a concern, thanks to pre-marriage screening for such traits (which is common, perhaps even near-universal among Orthodox Jews). But what about in the past, prior to the availability of such bio-testing?

    @theo the kraut:

    If it is your contention that you did not intend to imply that the inordinately large event depicted in the video took place in the present SARS-COV-2/Covid-19 era, then I will take you at your word. (The assumption of good faith, to the extent reasonably plausible, is a prerequisite for civilized discourse.)

    Nonetheless, in light of the factors I shall proceed to enumerate, you surely could not expect one not to at least suspect otherwise.

    The relevant factors are (a) the attention that has been focused upon other segments within the demographic-in-question for conspicuous instances of disregard for COVID restrictions; (b) the obvious and decidedly other-than-unbiased, other-than-benign interest that many here have amply demonstrated for drawing attention to said instances and others; and (c) the topic of this thread.

    , @Hypnotoad666
    @Jack D


    Even in the US, the states are almost equally divided on cousin marriage and NY, where most Hasidim live, it is fully legal.
     
    Can cousins marry if they are both male, or both female. If not, why not? After all, love is love.

    Replies: @Dissident

  233. @Jack D
    @theo the kraut

    The wedding took place in Israel where such marriages are completely legal under both secular and Jewish religious law. Even in the US, the states are almost equally divided on cousin marriage and NY, where most Hasidim live, it is fully legal. The Catholic Church, for some strange reason, had a strong taboo against any sort of cousin marriage (and not just 1st cousins) but, like polygamy, the majority of societies permit it. The Western Christian POV is not the only POV possible. It was not (as far as people of other religions are concerned) decreed by God. They had absolutely no reason to hide this as far as they were concerned.

    Replies: @Twinkie, @Dissident, @Hypnotoad666

    The Catholic Church, for some strange reason, had a strong taboo against any sort of cousin marriage

    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/51710349-the-weirdest-people-in-the-world

    You’re welcome.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Twinkie

    It wasn't really a strange reason. I was being nice. The Church opposed cousin marriage for the same reason that cults try to cut you off from your family. Without close family ties you were more likely to leave your money to the church.

    Westerners like the idea of individualism, but when does individualism become atomization?

    Replies: @Twinkie

    , @theo the kraut
    @Twinkie

    https://wp.me/papuj6-s
    Consanguinity and mental health in Muslim majority countries, links and studies

  234. @Jack D
    @theo the kraut

    The wedding took place in Israel where such marriages are completely legal under both secular and Jewish religious law. Even in the US, the states are almost equally divided on cousin marriage and NY, where most Hasidim live, it is fully legal. The Catholic Church, for some strange reason, had a strong taboo against any sort of cousin marriage (and not just 1st cousins) but, like polygamy, the majority of societies permit it. The Western Christian POV is not the only POV possible. It was not (as far as people of other religions are concerned) decreed by God. They had absolutely no reason to hide this as far as they were concerned.

    Replies: @Twinkie, @Dissident, @Hypnotoad666

    Agree, certainly, with what you wrote concerning the legality of cousin marriage, and its normativity among Hasidim.

    Not sure, though, that I would go so far as to characterize the taboo against the practice– whether from the Church of Rome or anyone else– as “strange”.

    What about risk of genetic defects? This may no longer be much, if any, of a concern, thanks to pre-marriage screening for such traits (which is common, perhaps even near-universal among Orthodox Jews). But what about in the past, prior to the availability of such bio-testing?

    :

    If it is your contention that you did not intend to imply that the inordinately large event depicted in the video took place in the present SARS-COV-2/Covid-19 era, then I will take you at your word. (The assumption of good faith, to the extent reasonably plausible, is a prerequisite for civilized discourse.)

    Nonetheless, in light of the factors I shall proceed to enumerate, you surely could not expect one not to at least suspect otherwise.

    The relevant factors are (a) the attention that has been focused upon other segments within the demographic-in-question for conspicuous instances of disregard for COVID restrictions; (b) the obvious and decidedly other-than-unbiased, other-than-benign interest that many here have amply demonstrated for drawing attention to said instances and others; and (c) the topic of this thread.

  235. @Twinkie
    @Jack D


    The Catholic Church, for some strange reason, had a strong taboo against any sort of cousin marriage
     
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/51710349-the-weirdest-people-in-the-world

    You’re welcome.

    Replies: @Jack D, @theo the kraut

    It wasn’t really a strange reason. I was being nice. The Church opposed cousin marriage for the same reason that cults try to cut you off from your family. Without close family ties you were more likely to leave your money to the church.

    Westerners like the idea of individualism, but when does individualism become atomization?

    • Replies: @Twinkie
    @Jack D

    Well, you can thank this “cult” for shaping the West into what it is - the most advanced and livable part of the earth without the clan-vs-clan war/competition mentality that exists in other parts of the world. Cousin marriages tend to lower average IQ and makes it difficult to foster a sense of res publica. There was wisdom without peer in what the Catholic Church did (it also provided for the right of women to refuse to be forced into marriage).

    Try the book.


    In The WEIRDest People in the World, Joseph Henrich draws on cutting-edge research in anthropology, psychology, economics, and evolutionary biology to explore these questions and more. He illuminates the origins and evolution of family structures, marriage, and religion, and the profound impact these cultural transformations had on human psychology. Mapping these shifts through ancient history and late antiquity, Henrich reveals that the most fundamental institutions of kinship and marriage changed dramatically under pressure from the Roman Catholic Church. It was these changes that gave rise to the WEIRD psychology that would coevolve with impersonal markets, occupational specialization, and free competition—laying the foundation for the modern world.
     

    Replies: @Jack D

  236. @Twinkie
    @That Would Be Telling


    “it was already well adapted for human transmission.”
     
    Yes, indeed. That's why I brought up Alina Chan.

    And now you’ve increased my workload, I’ve saved three of her papers starting with the one that comes to the above conclusion with supposedly solid molecular genetics data comparing SARS-CoV(-1) evolution to SARS-CoV-2 non-evolution. Thanks!
     
    If you could read her papers and opine, the appreciation will be all from my end! Sorry about the extra work and I look forward to reading your view.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    If you could read [Alina Chan’s] papers and opine, the appreciation will be all from my end! Sorry about the extra work and I look forward to reading your view.

    It won’t be any time soon unless on a whim, I can’t justify the diversion from my other STEM work, for biomedicine, just a focus on the vaccines for my friends and myself, and even that not very intense yet because none of us are in the US Phases 1a and 1b, and for some of them only in Phase 1c by being over 65. But I have set a reminder to update you when I do. Thanks again for pointing me at her work.

    • Thanks: Twinkie
  237. @Jack D
    @Twinkie

    It wasn't really a strange reason. I was being nice. The Church opposed cousin marriage for the same reason that cults try to cut you off from your family. Without close family ties you were more likely to leave your money to the church.

    Westerners like the idea of individualism, but when does individualism become atomization?

    Replies: @Twinkie

    Well, you can thank this “cult” for shaping the West into what it is – the most advanced and livable part of the earth without the clan-vs-clan war/competition mentality that exists in other parts of the world. Cousin marriages tend to lower average IQ and makes it difficult to foster a sense of res publica. There was wisdom without peer in what the Catholic Church did (it also provided for the right of women to refuse to be forced into marriage).

    Try the book.

    In The WEIRDest People in the World, Joseph Henrich draws on cutting-edge research in anthropology, psychology, economics, and evolutionary biology to explore these questions and more. He illuminates the origins and evolution of family structures, marriage, and religion, and the profound impact these cultural transformations had on human psychology. Mapping these shifts through ancient history and late antiquity, Henrich reveals that the most fundamental institutions of kinship and marriage changed dramatically under pressure from the Roman Catholic Church. It was these changes that gave rise to the WEIRD psychology that would coevolve with impersonal markets, occupational specialization, and free competition—laying the foundation for the modern world.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Twinkie


    Cousin marriages tend to lower average IQ
     
    Yes, this is exactly why Ashkenazi Jews are famously stupid.

    Replies: @Twinkie

  238. @Jack D
    @That Would Be Telling

    Great article. Thanks for the link. The shorter version is that the real spike protein is like a folded up spring which unfolds when it grabs onto and fuses with a cell and the spike protein in the vaccine has had some molecular twist ties added so that the spring can never unfold and actually fuse with your cells. But the pre-fusion (unfolded) shape of the spike protein is the same so that the antibodies that your body creates for the vaccine spike protein also work against the real spike protein in the virus. But ADE is triggered only by injected the post-fusion (unfolded) form of the protein and since you are not doing that there is no ADE reaction.

    Replies: @Jack D, @That Would Be Telling

    You made a couple of typos with this marvelous analogy that’s I’m now using to help explain the spike protein stabilization, “But the pre-fusion (unfolded) shape of the spike protein….” The “unfolded” in parens should be folded. And “injection” should be dropped in the last sentence. Otherwise quite a marvelous explanation, really the only thing you might add is that ADE come from an initial weak immune system response, which too much of the unfolded form in a vaccine can generate.

  239. @Twinkie
    @Jack D

    Well, you can thank this “cult” for shaping the West into what it is - the most advanced and livable part of the earth without the clan-vs-clan war/competition mentality that exists in other parts of the world. Cousin marriages tend to lower average IQ and makes it difficult to foster a sense of res publica. There was wisdom without peer in what the Catholic Church did (it also provided for the right of women to refuse to be forced into marriage).

    Try the book.


    In The WEIRDest People in the World, Joseph Henrich draws on cutting-edge research in anthropology, psychology, economics, and evolutionary biology to explore these questions and more. He illuminates the origins and evolution of family structures, marriage, and religion, and the profound impact these cultural transformations had on human psychology. Mapping these shifts through ancient history and late antiquity, Henrich reveals that the most fundamental institutions of kinship and marriage changed dramatically under pressure from the Roman Catholic Church. It was these changes that gave rise to the WEIRD psychology that would coevolve with impersonal markets, occupational specialization, and free competition—laying the foundation for the modern world.
     

    Replies: @Jack D

    Cousin marriages tend to lower average IQ

    Yes, this is exactly why Ashkenazi Jews are famously stupid.

    • Replies: @Twinkie
    @Jack D


    Yes, this is exactly why Ashkenazi Jews are famously stupid.
     
    First of all, isn’t high average Ashkenazi IQ a European (and later American) phenomenon?

    I was under the impression that Ashkenazi Jews also have higher out marriage rates (and indeed higher religious non-observance) and lower cousin marriage rates than Sephardic Jews. In any case, the higher IQ seems to be among the non-Orthodox Jews rather than the Orthodox ones who have considerably lower average IQ, no?

    https://www.discovermagazine.com/mind/cousin-marriage-can-reduce-iq-a-lot

    Replies: @Dissident

  240. @Jack D
    @Twinkie


    Cousin marriages tend to lower average IQ
     
    Yes, this is exactly why Ashkenazi Jews are famously stupid.

    Replies: @Twinkie

    Yes, this is exactly why Ashkenazi Jews are famously stupid.

    First of all, isn’t high average Ashkenazi IQ a European (and later American) phenomenon?

    I was under the impression that Ashkenazi Jews also have higher out marriage rates (and indeed higher religious non-observance) and lower cousin marriage rates than Sephardic Jews. In any case, the higher IQ seems to be among the non-Orthodox Jews rather than the Orthodox ones who have considerably lower average IQ, no?

    https://www.discovermagazine.com/mind/cousin-marriage-can-reduce-iq-a-lot

    • Replies: @Dissident
    @Twinkie


    In any case, the higher IQ seems to be among the non-Orthodox Jews rather than the Orthodox ones who have considerably lower average IQ, no?
     
    Is there reliable data to suggest that?

    Remember, there is an inverse correlation among Jews between level or degree of Orthodoxy (i.e., how strictly/seriously/traditionally religiously Orthodox they are) and level of (or even interest in) secular education. For Haredi/ so-called Ultra-Orthodox Jews, have a statistically significant number even bothered with IQ tests at all?

    At any rate, the whole phenomenon of the secular Jew is a relatively recent one; prior to the early nineteenth century, nearly all Jews would more-or-less be considered Orthodox. For anyone who may be interested in this and related topics, I have copied below the bulk of a rather lengthy comment I had posted back in August 2019 to an Audacious Epigone thread.


    Judaism is a deeply traditionalist, conservative, patriarchal religion. Up until the beginning of the 19th-century, nearly all Jews in Europe were practicing adherents of Judaism and there was really no Jewish identity or culture to speak-of that was distinct from the religion.

    That reality became inverted as a result of the Haskalah or Jewish Enlightenment, "a late 18th- and 19th-century intellectual movement among the Jews of central and eastern Europe" (Britannica.com) which had a vast, overwhelming influence upon European Jewry. By the end of the Haskalah period, most Jews had, at the very least become lapsed to a considerable degree in traditional Judaic observance, and a very large number had abandoned it entirely. Many such Jews were drawn to various radical Left-wing and Utopian movements. (I would hardly be the first to suggest that this was a means of trying to fill an obvious void in their life left by their abandonment of Judaic practice and community.) Most of the remainder of Jews were drawn to Zionism, a Judaic heresy* which was a predominately secular and even overtly anti-religious movement*. (*See note at end) Within Zionism were both Leftist as well as Rightist factions.

    The term Orthodox Judaism is in a sense redundant, for only by radically redefining Judaism from any traditional understanding of the term can any of the so-called other forms of Judaism be considered Judaism at all. Nonetheless, to differentiate authentic Judaism from the ersatz forms, use of the term Orthodox has become necessary.

    The most well-known of such ersatz "Judaisms" are, respectively, Reform Judaism [sic]; Conservative Judaism [sic]; Liberal Judaism [sic]; Reconstructionist Judaism [sic]; and Renewal Judaism [sic]. All are, from any traditional Judaic perspective, perversions of Judaism that qualify as heresies on any number of counts. And, in sharp contradistinction to Orthodoxy, all of them have embraced radical social values, going so far as to ordain openly homosexual "rabbis" and recognize same-sex "marriages".

    Within the broad outer category of Orthodoxy, there are many sub-categories, factions and sub-factions. Thus, there really is no single Orthodox Jewish community to speak-of but many. To take just one salient example, all Hasidim are Orthodox but not all Orthodox Jews are Hasidim. And Hasidim themselves are highly fractured, with many different sects.

    *Initially fiercely opposed by a nearly-unanimous consensus of the foremost rabbis, the relationship between Zionism and religious Jews had become rather complicated by the time the Zionist State that calls itself 'Israel' was established. Since then, there are basically three main groups that Orthodox Jews fall into as concerns their position on Zionism and its State. The first are those who are emphatically anti-Zionist, often zealously so. Not recognizing the Zionist State, they refrain from voting in its elections or serving in its government. The second group are those who are at least de jure non-Zionist but nonetheless recognize the State and participate quite actively in its politics and government. Such participation was at least initially based on a rationale that once the State was established, the best way to defend and promote traditional religious observance and values is to work from within the State. The third and final group are those that are explicitly and fully Zionist, insisting that Zionism is not only inherently perfectly compatible with Judaism but actually mandated by it. (I would contend that such a position can only be maintained by selective and tendentious treatment of both the relevant canonical texts as well as of the received traditions from rabbinical authorities.) Within each of these three main groups are many sub-groups with variously differing and nuanced positions. There are also more than a few Orthodox Jews who straddle the fence either between between the anti-Zionist and non-Zionist camps or between the Zionist and (at least nominally) non-Zionist ones.
     

    Replies: @Twinkie

  241. @Twinkie
    @Jack D


    The Catholic Church, for some strange reason, had a strong taboo against any sort of cousin marriage
     
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/51710349-the-weirdest-people-in-the-world

    You’re welcome.

    Replies: @Jack D, @theo the kraut

    https://wp.me/papuj6-s
    Consanguinity and mental health in Muslim majority countries, links and studies

    • Agree: Twinkie
  242. @Twinkie
    @Jack D


    Yes, this is exactly why Ashkenazi Jews are famously stupid.
     
    First of all, isn’t high average Ashkenazi IQ a European (and later American) phenomenon?

    I was under the impression that Ashkenazi Jews also have higher out marriage rates (and indeed higher religious non-observance) and lower cousin marriage rates than Sephardic Jews. In any case, the higher IQ seems to be among the non-Orthodox Jews rather than the Orthodox ones who have considerably lower average IQ, no?

    https://www.discovermagazine.com/mind/cousin-marriage-can-reduce-iq-a-lot

    Replies: @Dissident

    In any case, the higher IQ seems to be among the non-Orthodox Jews rather than the Orthodox ones who have considerably lower average IQ, no?

    Is there reliable data to suggest that?

    Remember, there is an inverse correlation among Jews between level or degree of Orthodoxy (i.e., how strictly/seriously/traditionally religiously Orthodox they are) and level of (or even interest in) secular education. For Haredi/ so-called Ultra-Orthodox Jews, have a statistically significant number even bothered with IQ tests at all?

    At any rate, the whole phenomenon of the secular Jew is a relatively recent one; prior to the early nineteenth century, nearly all Jews would more-or-less be considered Orthodox. For anyone who may be interested in this and related topics, I have copied below the bulk of a rather lengthy comment I had posted back in August 2019 to an Audacious Epigone thread.

    [MORE]

    Judaism is a deeply traditionalist, conservative, patriarchal religion. Up until the beginning of the 19th-century, nearly all Jews in Europe were practicing adherents of Judaism and there was really no Jewish identity or culture to speak-of that was distinct from the religion.

    That reality became inverted as a result of the Haskalah or Jewish Enlightenment, “a late 18th- and 19th-century intellectual movement among the Jews of central and eastern Europe” (Britannica.com) which had a vast, overwhelming influence upon European Jewry. By the end of the Haskalah period, most Jews had, at the very least become lapsed to a considerable degree in traditional Judaic observance, and a very large number had abandoned it entirely. Many such Jews were drawn to various radical Left-wing and Utopian movements. (I would hardly be the first to suggest that this was a means of trying to fill an obvious void in their life left by their abandonment of Judaic practice and community.) Most of the remainder of Jews were drawn to Zionism, a Judaic heresy* which was a predominately secular and even overtly anti-religious movement*. (*See note at end) Within Zionism were both Leftist as well as Rightist factions.

    The term Orthodox Judaism is in a sense redundant, for only by radically redefining Judaism from any traditional understanding of the term can any of the so-called other forms of Judaism be considered Judaism at all. Nonetheless, to differentiate authentic Judaism from the ersatz forms, use of the term Orthodox has become necessary.

    The most well-known of such ersatz “Judaisms” are, respectively, Reform Judaism [sic]; Conservative Judaism [sic]; Liberal Judaism [sic]; Reconstructionist Judaism [sic]; and Renewal Judaism [sic]. All are, from any traditional Judaic perspective, perversions of Judaism that qualify as heresies on any number of counts. And, in sharp contradistinction to Orthodoxy, all of them have embraced radical social values, going so far as to ordain openly homosexual “rabbis” and recognize same-sex “marriages”.

    Within the broad outer category of Orthodoxy, there are many sub-categories, factions and sub-factions. Thus, there really is no single Orthodox Jewish community to speak-of but many. To take just one salient example, all Hasidim are Orthodox but not all Orthodox Jews are Hasidim. And Hasidim themselves are highly fractured, with many different sects.

    *Initially fiercely opposed by a nearly-unanimous consensus of the foremost rabbis, the relationship between Zionism and religious Jews had become rather complicated by the time the Zionist State that calls itself ‘Israel’ was established. Since then, there are basically three main groups that Orthodox Jews fall into as concerns their position on Zionism and its State. The first are those who are emphatically anti-Zionist, often zealously so. Not recognizing the Zionist State, they refrain from voting in its elections or serving in its government. The second group are those who are at least de jure non-Zionist but nonetheless recognize the State and participate quite actively in its politics and government. Such participation was at least initially based on a rationale that once the State was established, the best way to defend and promote traditional religious observance and values is to work from within the State. The third and final group are those that are explicitly and fully Zionist, insisting that Zionism is not only inherently perfectly compatible with Judaism but actually mandated by it. (I would contend that such a position can only be maintained by selective and tendentious treatment of both the relevant canonical texts as well as of the received traditions from rabbinical authorities.) Within each of these three main groups are many sub-groups with variously differing and nuanced positions. There are also more than a few Orthodox Jews who straddle the fence either between between the anti-Zionist and non-Zionist camps or between the Zionist and (at least nominally) non-Zionist ones.

    • Replies: @Twinkie
    @Dissident


    At any rate, the whole phenomenon of the secular Jew is a relatively recent one; prior to the early nineteenth century, nearly all Jews would more-or-less be considered Orthodox.
     
    Unsurprisingly, the astounding burst of Jewish intellectual achievements also coincided with the period beginning with Jewish emancipation in Europe. Prior to that, they might have had a reputation for avarice and mercantile facility, but their intellectual output was comparatively meager.

    By the way, I’ve read that the ill effects of cousin marriages can be obviated readily with even a small number of generational out-marriages.

    Replies: @Dissident

  243. @Dissident
    @Twinkie


    In any case, the higher IQ seems to be among the non-Orthodox Jews rather than the Orthodox ones who have considerably lower average IQ, no?
     
    Is there reliable data to suggest that?

    Remember, there is an inverse correlation among Jews between level or degree of Orthodoxy (i.e., how strictly/seriously/traditionally religiously Orthodox they are) and level of (or even interest in) secular education. For Haredi/ so-called Ultra-Orthodox Jews, have a statistically significant number even bothered with IQ tests at all?

    At any rate, the whole phenomenon of the secular Jew is a relatively recent one; prior to the early nineteenth century, nearly all Jews would more-or-less be considered Orthodox. For anyone who may be interested in this and related topics, I have copied below the bulk of a rather lengthy comment I had posted back in August 2019 to an Audacious Epigone thread.


    Judaism is a deeply traditionalist, conservative, patriarchal religion. Up until the beginning of the 19th-century, nearly all Jews in Europe were practicing adherents of Judaism and there was really no Jewish identity or culture to speak-of that was distinct from the religion.

    That reality became inverted as a result of the Haskalah or Jewish Enlightenment, "a late 18th- and 19th-century intellectual movement among the Jews of central and eastern Europe" (Britannica.com) which had a vast, overwhelming influence upon European Jewry. By the end of the Haskalah period, most Jews had, at the very least become lapsed to a considerable degree in traditional Judaic observance, and a very large number had abandoned it entirely. Many such Jews were drawn to various radical Left-wing and Utopian movements. (I would hardly be the first to suggest that this was a means of trying to fill an obvious void in their life left by their abandonment of Judaic practice and community.) Most of the remainder of Jews were drawn to Zionism, a Judaic heresy* which was a predominately secular and even overtly anti-religious movement*. (*See note at end) Within Zionism were both Leftist as well as Rightist factions.

    The term Orthodox Judaism is in a sense redundant, for only by radically redefining Judaism from any traditional understanding of the term can any of the so-called other forms of Judaism be considered Judaism at all. Nonetheless, to differentiate authentic Judaism from the ersatz forms, use of the term Orthodox has become necessary.

    The most well-known of such ersatz "Judaisms" are, respectively, Reform Judaism [sic]; Conservative Judaism [sic]; Liberal Judaism [sic]; Reconstructionist Judaism [sic]; and Renewal Judaism [sic]. All are, from any traditional Judaic perspective, perversions of Judaism that qualify as heresies on any number of counts. And, in sharp contradistinction to Orthodoxy, all of them have embraced radical social values, going so far as to ordain openly homosexual "rabbis" and recognize same-sex "marriages".

    Within the broad outer category of Orthodoxy, there are many sub-categories, factions and sub-factions. Thus, there really is no single Orthodox Jewish community to speak-of but many. To take just one salient example, all Hasidim are Orthodox but not all Orthodox Jews are Hasidim. And Hasidim themselves are highly fractured, with many different sects.

    *Initially fiercely opposed by a nearly-unanimous consensus of the foremost rabbis, the relationship between Zionism and religious Jews had become rather complicated by the time the Zionist State that calls itself 'Israel' was established. Since then, there are basically three main groups that Orthodox Jews fall into as concerns their position on Zionism and its State. The first are those who are emphatically anti-Zionist, often zealously so. Not recognizing the Zionist State, they refrain from voting in its elections or serving in its government. The second group are those who are at least de jure non-Zionist but nonetheless recognize the State and participate quite actively in its politics and government. Such participation was at least initially based on a rationale that once the State was established, the best way to defend and promote traditional religious observance and values is to work from within the State. The third and final group are those that are explicitly and fully Zionist, insisting that Zionism is not only inherently perfectly compatible with Judaism but actually mandated by it. (I would contend that such a position can only be maintained by selective and tendentious treatment of both the relevant canonical texts as well as of the received traditions from rabbinical authorities.) Within each of these three main groups are many sub-groups with variously differing and nuanced positions. There are also more than a few Orthodox Jews who straddle the fence either between between the anti-Zionist and non-Zionist camps or between the Zionist and (at least nominally) non-Zionist ones.
     

    Replies: @Twinkie

    At any rate, the whole phenomenon of the secular Jew is a relatively recent one; prior to the early nineteenth century, nearly all Jews would more-or-less be considered Orthodox.

    Unsurprisingly, the astounding burst of Jewish intellectual achievements also coincided with the period beginning with Jewish emancipation in Europe. Prior to that, they might have had a reputation for avarice and mercantile facility, but their intellectual output was comparatively meager.

    By the way, I’ve read that the ill effects of cousin marriages can be obviated readily with even a small number of generational out-marriages.

    • Replies: @Dissident
    @Twinkie


    Unsurprisingly, the astounding burst of Jewish intellectual achievements also coincided with the period beginning with Jewish emancipation in Europe. Prior to that, they might have had a reputation for avarice and mercantile facility, but their intellectual output was comparatively meager.
     
    Wow, you sure did manage to pack quite a bit of gratuitous condescension, contempt and hostility into those two sentences, didn't you? As I cannot recall demonstrating anything less-than-civility and respect toward you, I can only conclude one of two possibilities. Either you confused me with a different commentator, or I had overestimated you.
  244. @Supply and Demand
    @Anon

    Australia has the weakest claim to being a white country in the entire Anglosphere. White Portuguese settlements in Angola are 200 years older than the first white settlement in Oz.

    Replies: @sb

    New Zealand was the last Anglosphere country to have white settlement .
    ( although at that time it was seen as part of Australia or ,to be specific , New South Wales )

  245. @AnotherDad
    @Twinkie


    Eventually, we hope that, with the vaccines and improve therapies, this will become like a flu
     
    Twinkie, that's more or less what i thought back in the spring.

    But with this vaccine, that's not what i see happening now. Mainly because the vaccine is so effective, and because coronaviruses have this replication proof-reading and so are much less mutation prone than the flu viruses. (My thanks to the iSteve commenters who explained this to me.)

    It is these continual antigen shifts that keep the flu popping. I've been exposed to the Asian (H2N2) the Hong Kong (H3N2), the Swine (H1N1) and had the '76 swine jab as well as plenty of seasonal shots aimed at this or that strain over the years. But the flu has kicked my ass a few times.

    In contrast, once i get my jab for this (like Moderna, but will take whatever) i should be done with it. (If it turns out a booster every 10 or 20 is called for, i'll get that.)

    Yeah, this will wizzle on in pockets. And old folks whose immune systems have crashed, will die from it, as they do the flu. Though, i suspect less so, because even the nursing homes hiring the Somali attendants will have them vaccination.

    Basically the vaccine is going to really put the whoop ass on this thing. If it doesn't mutate, it's playlist is going to only be anti-vaxers and those with poor immune systems. The measles--just way less virulent.

    Replies: @Twinkie, @That Would Be Telling, @MEH 0910

    Yeah, this will wizzle on in pockets.

    Razzle In My Pocket · Ian Dury

  246. @kihowi
    @Steve Sailer

    When Americans start using war metaphors against a non-human enemy, I know the problem is about to be solved.

    Replies: @Hypnotoad666

    When Americans start using war metaphors against a non-human enemy, I know the problem is about to be solved.

    You’re either with the virus or against it.

  247. @Jack D
    @theo the kraut

    The wedding took place in Israel where such marriages are completely legal under both secular and Jewish religious law. Even in the US, the states are almost equally divided on cousin marriage and NY, where most Hasidim live, it is fully legal. The Catholic Church, for some strange reason, had a strong taboo against any sort of cousin marriage (and not just 1st cousins) but, like polygamy, the majority of societies permit it. The Western Christian POV is not the only POV possible. It was not (as far as people of other religions are concerned) decreed by God. They had absolutely no reason to hide this as far as they were concerned.

    Replies: @Twinkie, @Dissident, @Hypnotoad666

    Even in the US, the states are almost equally divided on cousin marriage and NY, where most Hasidim live, it is fully legal.

    Can cousins marry if they are both male, or both female. If not, why not? After all, love is love.

    • Replies: @Dissident
    @Hypnotoad666


    Can cousins marry if they are both male, or both female. If not, why not? After all, love is love.
     
    Indeed, it hardly seems logical or reasonable for the state to sanction the travesty of "marriage" between two members of the same sex, while prohibiting two individuals of opposite sex to marry if they are cousins.

    Is that any more illogical or unreasonable, though, than simultaneously maintaining insisting (by force of Law) that homosexuality is invariably both innate as well as immutable (except when it isn't*), but that "gender"-- i.e. the objective reality of sex-- is neither?

    * See also: here.

    Any more illogical or unreasonable than condemning as Islamophobic merely wishing to curtail Muslim immigration, while simultaneously championing the mass killing of Muslims in their lands?

    Just two salient examples out of countless that could be cited.

  248. @Twinkie
    @Dissident


    At any rate, the whole phenomenon of the secular Jew is a relatively recent one; prior to the early nineteenth century, nearly all Jews would more-or-less be considered Orthodox.
     
    Unsurprisingly, the astounding burst of Jewish intellectual achievements also coincided with the period beginning with Jewish emancipation in Europe. Prior to that, they might have had a reputation for avarice and mercantile facility, but their intellectual output was comparatively meager.

    By the way, I’ve read that the ill effects of cousin marriages can be obviated readily with even a small number of generational out-marriages.

    Replies: @Dissident

    Unsurprisingly, the astounding burst of Jewish intellectual achievements also coincided with the period beginning with Jewish emancipation in Europe. Prior to that, they might have had a reputation for avarice and mercantile facility, but their intellectual output was comparatively meager.

    Wow, you sure did manage to pack quite a bit of gratuitous condescension, contempt and hostility into those two sentences, didn’t you? As I cannot recall demonstrating anything less-than-civility and respect toward you, I can only conclude one of two possibilities. Either you confused me with a different commentator, or I had overestimated you.

  249. @Hypnotoad666
    @Jack D


    Even in the US, the states are almost equally divided on cousin marriage and NY, where most Hasidim live, it is fully legal.
     
    Can cousins marry if they are both male, or both female. If not, why not? After all, love is love.

    Replies: @Dissident

    Can cousins marry if they are both male, or both female. If not, why not? After all, love is love.

    Indeed, it hardly seems logical or reasonable for the state to sanction the travesty of “marriage” between two members of the same sex, while prohibiting two individuals of opposite sex to marry if they are cousins.

    Is that any more illogical or unreasonable, though, than simultaneously maintaining insisting (by force of Law) that homosexuality is invariably both innate as well as immutable (except when it isn’t*), but that “gender”– i.e. the objective reality of sex— is neither?

    * See also: here.

    Any more illogical or unreasonable than condemning as Islamophobic merely wishing to curtail Muslim immigration, while simultaneously championing the mass killing of Muslims in their lands?

    Just two salient examples out of countless that could be cited.

  250. @Lockean Proviso
    @Anonymous

    Maybe the legacy media can find a black lab worker at one of the vaccine makers and promote the idea that they are the actual creator of the vaccine, it having been stolen from them by white scientists. Netflix could make a movie about it, "Black Antibodies.". Whatever it takes to reassure blacks that the vaccine is actually theirs so that they will take it when they're placed at the front of the line.

    Replies: @Anon, @Alan Mercer

    Rejoice, for she has been found.

    https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/national/coronavirus/vaccine-developed-by-an-african-american-woman-says-fauci-responding-to-concerns-mistrust

    “The vaccine that you’re going to be taking was developed by an African American woman. And that is just a fact. I mean, that is a fact.”
    – Dr. Fauci

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