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FBI: the Murder Offender Ratio for Blacks to Nonblacks Is Greater Than the Ratio for Males to Females
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According to recently released FBI crime data for 2019, here is an extraordinary statistic: although males were an unsurprising 7.6 times as likely to be murder offenders as females, blacks were 8.2 times as likely to be murder offenders as nonblacks:

 
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  1. The Department of Justice (DOJ) charged 345 people across 51 federal districts in the largest healthcare fraud takedown in the agency’s history.

    • Replies: @Negrolphin Pool
    @Anon

    A quick review of the largest healthcare fraud cases leads to the impression that the nonwhite — including Jews — to white ratio of healthcare fraud perps is possibly even higher than the black:nonblack murder ratio.

  2. Are blacks in Africa as violent as blacks are in the United States?

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    @Anonymous

    Ask the White farmers there.

    Replies: @Gary in Gramercy

    , @NickG
    @Anonymous


    Are blacks in Africa as violent as blacks are in the United States?
     
    Greetings from Pretoria — yes.
    , @Andy
    @Anonymous

    South Africa has one of the highest murder rates in the world. Other African countries seem less violent (if you look at the homicide rates) only because the population is often too poor to even afford guns

    Replies: @Cloudbuster, @Anonymous

    , @PaceLaw
    @Anonymous

    I understand that South Africa is quite violent, but hey Africa is a HUGE continent! Lol! It may be anecdotal, but I know many African immigrants in this country who are alarmed by the high-crime rate of African Americans. Not surprisingly a lot of these immigrant Africans look down on African American culture.

  3. @Anonymous
    Are blacks in Africa as violent as blacks are in the United States?

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @NickG, @Andy, @PaceLaw

    Ask the White farmers there.

    • Replies: @Gary in Gramercy
    @Buzz Mohawk

    While you can still find some live ones?

  4. Yet another stat you’d better not even hint about with ‘normies’.

    Funny thing though: they can tolerate the male/female disparity just fine.

    • Replies: @ben tillman
    @Mr McKenna

    I disagree. This is the perfect thing to mention to normies. This is a provable fact.

    , @AnotherDad
    @Mr McKenna


    Yet another stat you’d better not even hint about with ‘normies’.

    Funny thing though: they can tolerate the male/female disparity just fine.
     

    Agree with Ben. This package is particularly good for challenging the narrative. Especially with liberals who mouth feminist platitudes.

    The fact that the police overwhelmingly kill *men* ... doesn't seem to be a big issue with anyone.

    Because, of course, everyone who has been through high school actually understands that the "gender is a social construct" thing is complete nonsense. Men commit much more violent crime (female dysfunction manifests in BPD attention seeking in drama, less direct physical aggression) and correspondingly get shot by the cops an order of magnitude more.

    But blacks are only shot by the cops 2X more than their population percentage, while committing 7-8X more violent crime ... national crisis!

    Replies: @SINCERITY.net, @Anon

  5. The official stats wildly understate the case. They don’t account for the many examples where closure (and conviction) cannot be obtained since snitches get stitches. Those examples skew (also wildly) in just one direction.

    • Agree: TWS
    • LOL: Charon
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @Charon


    The official stats wildly understate the case. They don’t account for the many examples where closure (and conviction) cannot be obtained since snitches get stitches. Those examples skew (also wildly) in just one direction.
     
    Is there any data to back this up?

    Replies: @SaneClownPosse

    , @SMK
    @Charon

    Yes, what percentage and number of blacks who commit murder aren't even arrested and thus aren't counted statistically?

    What percentage and number of the "nonblack murder offenders" are Mestizos and pure Amerindians, or black "Hispanics" who are not defined as "black," rather than whites and "Asians"? Racially, the category "Hispanic" causes nothing but confusion and ignorance, and should be abolished, both in the census and in crime statistics.

    And what percentage and number of female "murder offenders" are black? Is the disparity in murder rates between blacks and "nonblacks," including millions of Muslims and tens of millions of Mestizos/Amerindians, even greater for females than for males? For example: black males on average are hundreds of times more likely to commit murder than "East Asian" women.

    Replies: @HammerJack

    , @Athletic and Whitesplosive
    @Charon

    I've seen some estimates where they use "reported race", i.e. what the victim/witness called the race in as. Of course, not all murders have witnesses, but for things like assault you'd think those numbers would be fairly complete (most people who are assaulted will report it) and accurate (most people won't mistake or lie about the race of their assailant, except maybe the most deranged anti-racist who doesn't want non whites to look bad).

    Replies: @TWS

  6. If you watch any kind of true-crime show on TV – COPS, Live PD, First 48, Homicide Hunter with Joe Kenda etc. – judging by the suspects and the convicted you’d think that the USA was 75% black. And they are more dangerous now than ever before. Ever notice on these shows that if one is stopped in his car, he most likely has a firearm on him?

    From Homicide Hunter with Joe Kenda, I first learned about biorhythms. When one big city experiences a major uptick in crime, invariably all the big cities across the nation are experiencing the same thing. Unsurprisingly, with surging crime rates today, whites are en masse relocating to more homogeneous communities.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @NoobSpyBot

    Flawless name.

    , @Dan Smith
    @NoobSpyBot

    Live PD is returning to the air. I never understood the reason why A&E yanked it but not First 48, which shows over and over why black aggression is so over the top against other ghetto residents. Live PD had some comedic moments and many of the perps were white.

    Replies: @Anonymous

    , @Flip
    @NoobSpyBot


    Unsurprisingly, with surging crime rates today, whites are en masse relocating to more homogeneous communities.
     
    There are lots of 90%+ white small towns all over America.
    , @Pop Warner
    @NoobSpyBot

    LivePD went out if its way to find white criminals and would avoid entertaining black counties for more boring white meth counties. It was a running joke among fans that when something good was starting to happen in Gwinnett County, Georgia or another mostly black county, the host Dan Abrams would cut it off and go to Nye County, Nevada.

    Of course the woke mob got the show canceled because pandering like that didn't work and portraying police as anything but blue-clad Klansmen is forbidden to the Cult of Woke (brought to you by Proctor and Gamble)

    Replies: @NoobSpyBot

  7. But I don’t see this on ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, or FOX! How can it be true?

  8. @Anon
    The Department of Justice (DOJ) charged 345 people across 51 federal districts in the largest healthcare fraud takedown in the agency's history.

    Replies: @Negrolphin Pool

    A quick review of the largest healthcare fraud cases leads to the impression that the nonwhite — including Jews — to white ratio of healthcare fraud perps is possibly even higher than the black:nonblack murder ratio.

    • Agree: Travis
  9. Why is Steve Sailer and other manoids silent on the manoid crisis? If pointing out black propensity to violence is legitimate – and it is – the same principle must apply to manoids. Yet almost nothing is mentioned on the huge crisis of manoid violence and dysfunction in society.

    • Replies: @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY)
    @Thulean Friend

    Hi, Thulean Friend. What is a manoid? https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Manoid says, "manoid = a woman that sounds or looks like a man". What is the evidence that manoids are prone to violence?

    , @Athletic and Whitesplosive
    @Thulean Friend

    If by "manoid" you mean male, and you're trying to imply that (especially white) males aren't commonly portrayed in media as the violent abusers of women, you may want to emerge from your cave and join us in the real world.

    Of course males being particularly prone to general "dysfunction" only exists in your addled delusions.

  10. Yes, Blacks are violent everywhere.
    Wherever there are Blacks, there is Africa

    You can check murder rates by country. And add corrections for bad statistics. Black countries have huge murder rates, SE Asians are lowest, White countries quite low. Russia seems a bit high for a white country.

    Haiti with 200 years of black independence without racist white repressors is an example. (they genocided the Whites) and are worse than many African nations.

    Blacks have low IQ and low self control. Of course, social environment can make things much worse or a bit better.

    There is absolutely no reason for BLM “peaceful protests” by blacks about crime victimizations, once the taboo #RacistFacts can be said. But you risk getting Watsoned for engaging in #TrueSpeech telling #RacistFacts about Black crime.

    James Watson’s Inquisition #2:
    James D. Watson, perhaps the most distinguished living American scientist, has now been kicked to the curb by the Cold Spring Harbor genetics laboratory he rescued and rebuilt over the last 40 years for making politically (but not scientifically) incorrect statements about African IQs.
    https://4racism.org/james-watson-bell-curve.html

    James Watson Racist:
    Nobel James Watson Top 20 most influential Americans of all times, top 100 Person of all times, was socially and scientifically destroyed for a well meaning comment about race differences.
    https://4racism.org/james-watson.html

  11. Anonymous[203] • Disclaimer says:

    Nothing really shocking here:

    This inference has been more or less obvious to anyone who takes the trouble to ponder on such things.

    A more challenging hypothesis, packing more of a punch, so to speak, is that if, on a capita basis, are black women more murderous than white men?
    Quick and dirty analysis seems to indicate a rough sort of equality here, although it would be illuminating to see a thorough analysis.

    • Replies: @Harry Baldwin
    @Anonymous

    are black women more murderous than white men?

    I've seen a statistical comparison that indicated they are, but I haven't been able to find it again. Seems likely, though, doesn't it?

    Replies: @JosephB

    , @stillCARealist
    @Anonymous

    Were blacks always this bad? My vague impression, as Steve likes to say, is that they weren't this violent before the Civil rights revolution. You'd have to compare shootings/stabbings with today's murder rate since our medicine has gotten so much better, and since guns are more prevalent today... maybe they aren't? These gang punks have an awful lot of them.... but I suspect that the drugs and gangs have made this all much worse than it should be.

    Why, after all the changes after WWII regarding civil rights, did the black crime rate, and specifically the murder rate rise so significantly?

    Replies: @ATBOTL, @res, @SaneClownPosse

  12. @NoobSpyBot
    If you watch any kind of true-crime show on TV - COPS, Live PD, First 48, Homicide Hunter with Joe Kenda etc. - judging by the suspects and the convicted you'd think that the USA was 75% black. And they are more dangerous now than ever before. Ever notice on these shows that if one is stopped in his car, he most likely has a firearm on him?

    From Homicide Hunter with Joe Kenda, I first learned about biorhythms. When one big city experiences a major uptick in crime, invariably all the big cities across the nation are experiencing the same thing. Unsurprisingly, with surging crime rates today, whites are en masse relocating to more homogeneous communities.

    Replies: @J.Ross, @Dan Smith, @Flip, @Pop Warner

    Flawless name.

  13. @Anonymous
    Are blacks in Africa as violent as blacks are in the United States?

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @NickG, @Andy, @PaceLaw

    Are blacks in Africa as violent as blacks are in the United States?

    Greetings from Pretoria — yes.

  14. @Anonymous
    Nothing really shocking here:

    This inference has been more or less obvious to anyone who takes the trouble to ponder on such things.

    A more challenging hypothesis, packing more of a punch, so to speak, is that if, on a capita basis, are black women more murderous than white men?
    Quick and dirty analysis seems to indicate a rough sort of equality here, although it would be illuminating to see a thorough analysis.

    Replies: @Harry Baldwin, @stillCARealist

    are black women more murderous than white men?

    I’ve seen a statistical comparison that indicated they are, but I haven’t been able to find it again. Seems likely, though, doesn’t it?

    • Replies: @JosephB
    @Harry Baldwin

    I chatted about this statistics with a high-volume defense attorney. The attorney said relatively few women are the triggerman, but are typically act as lookouts or getaway drivers, and are charged under felony murder rules. So while the statistics aren't in dispute, as a practical matter, it is far from obvious whether a 25-year old black woman or a 25-year old white man is more of a threat if you're walking alone late at night.

    I'd hoped to look at rates of aggravated assault by race, but did not find it in the FBI report. I realize aggravated assault isn't as good from a "moneyball" aspect, but I don't think DAs are as keen on going after drivers in such cases.

    Any other ideas on how to attack the problem?

    Replies: @Art Deco, @Truth

  15. I guess this this isn’t so when you only take cases with non-black victims.

  16. Imagine* you’re waiting at the city bus stop one night. There are two shelters to chose from. In one there is a young, able-bodied black man. In the other, an elderly Asian lady using a walker. You choose the latter.

    You’re accused of racial profiling, and guilty as charged. But you’re equally guilty of sex, age, and disability profiling.

    So why is only one of the four seen as a problem?

    *I don’t have to imagine, having been in such situations many times. Particularly in Frogtown.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Reg Cæsar

    Yeah, but you got at least ONTO the bus in one piece and with all your money.


    You’re accused of racial profiling, and guilty as charged. But you’re equally guilty of sex, age, and disability profiling.
     
    Pay the ticket for it, start accounting for it in the cost of bus rides, and then do the accounting again re: public transportation vs. driving yourself.

    In answer to your question, Reg, it's because old disabled women don't riot in the streets, if you ignore the accusations. They find it difficult to smash windows without one of those special tool-steel-tipped walkers.

  17. @Thulean Friend
    Why is Steve Sailer and other manoids silent on the manoid crisis? If pointing out black propensity to violence is legitimate - and it is - the same principle must apply to manoids. Yet almost nothing is mentioned on the huge crisis of manoid violence and dysfunction in society.

    Replies: @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY), @Athletic and Whitesplosive

    Hi, Thulean Friend. What is a manoid? https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Manoid says, “manoid = a woman that sounds or looks like a man”. What is the evidence that manoids are prone to violence?

  18. @Harry Baldwin
    @Anonymous

    are black women more murderous than white men?

    I've seen a statistical comparison that indicated they are, but I haven't been able to find it again. Seems likely, though, doesn't it?

    Replies: @JosephB

    I chatted about this statistics with a high-volume defense attorney. The attorney said relatively few women are the triggerman, but are typically act as lookouts or getaway drivers, and are charged under felony murder rules. So while the statistics aren’t in dispute, as a practical matter, it is far from obvious whether a 25-year old black woman or a 25-year old white man is more of a threat if you’re walking alone late at night.

    I’d hoped to look at rates of aggravated assault by race, but did not find it in the FBI report. I realize aggravated assault isn’t as good from a “moneyball” aspect, but I don’t think DAs are as keen on going after drivers in such cases.

    Any other ideas on how to attack the problem?

    • Agree: danand, TTSSYF
    • Replies: @Art Deco
    @JosephB

    I chatted about this statistics with a high-volume defense attorney. The attorney said relatively few women are the triggerman, but are typically act as lookouts or getaway drivers, and are charged under felony murder rules.

    I'm going to wager if you unpacked it that few women are charged with felony murder, and that women they're tracking are largely people who killed family members / paramours in domestic settings (or, in slum zones, killed someone they got into a dispute with at a house party).

    Replies: @JosephB

    , @Truth
    @JosephB

    You (as a man) would be more afraid of a 25 year-old black woman than a 25 year-old white man?

    Am I reading this correctly?

    Replies: @SINCERITY.net, @JosephB

  19. Thank you, Steve. That is an amazing comparison. You have put your ranges ~ 7 to 11, IIRC (narrowing it down recently) before on this ratio, but I would have thought the men/women ratio was even higher than that.

    Just think of what that means. We know men and women are pretty much different creatures in lots of ways based on that extra chromosome. Even without that chromosome difference, and in a situation in which DNA can result in a blend of infinite proportions, blacks and whites are different … somethings.

    If that wasn’t clear above, I mean there are variations from white to black, gene-wise, with any ratio in between, on a continuum. Yet even the sickest of the genderbender/tranny people don’t say there are blends between men and woman. You can’t even identify as 62.75% man, much less be that. Maybe that’s an upcoming piece of stupidity we can look forward to.

  20. @Buzz Mohawk
    @Anonymous

    Ask the White farmers there.

    Replies: @Gary in Gramercy

    While you can still find some live ones?

  21. @Reg Cæsar
    Imagine* you're waiting at the city bus stop one night. There are two shelters to chose from. In one there is a young, able-bodied black man. In the other, an elderly Asian lady using a walker. You choose the latter.

    You're accused of racial profiling, and guilty as charged. But you're equally guilty of sex, age, and disability profiling.

    So why is only one of the four seen as a problem?


    *I don't have to imagine, having been in such situations many times. Particularly in Frogtown.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    Yeah, but you got at least ONTO the bus in one piece and with all your money.

    You’re accused of racial profiling, and guilty as charged. But you’re equally guilty of sex, age, and disability profiling.

    Pay the ticket for it, start accounting for it in the cost of bus rides, and then do the accounting again re: public transportation vs. driving yourself.

    In answer to your question, Reg, it’s because old disabled women don’t riot in the streets, if you ignore the accusations. They find it difficult to smash windows without one of those special tool-steel-tipped walkers.

  22. OK, OK … blacks are better at sports and violent crime.

    • LOL: Yawrate
  23. @NoobSpyBot
    If you watch any kind of true-crime show on TV - COPS, Live PD, First 48, Homicide Hunter with Joe Kenda etc. - judging by the suspects and the convicted you'd think that the USA was 75% black. And they are more dangerous now than ever before. Ever notice on these shows that if one is stopped in his car, he most likely has a firearm on him?

    From Homicide Hunter with Joe Kenda, I first learned about biorhythms. When one big city experiences a major uptick in crime, invariably all the big cities across the nation are experiencing the same thing. Unsurprisingly, with surging crime rates today, whites are en masse relocating to more homogeneous communities.

    Replies: @J.Ross, @Dan Smith, @Flip, @Pop Warner

    Live PD is returning to the air. I never understood the reason why A&E yanked it but not First 48, which shows over and over why black aggression is so over the top against other ghetto residents. Live PD had some comedic moments and many of the perps were white.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @Dan Smith


    I never understood the reason why A&E yanked it but not First 48, which shows over and over why black aggression is so over the top against other ghetto residents.
     
    Why is black aggression so over the top against other ghetto residents?
  24. @NoobSpyBot
    If you watch any kind of true-crime show on TV - COPS, Live PD, First 48, Homicide Hunter with Joe Kenda etc. - judging by the suspects and the convicted you'd think that the USA was 75% black. And they are more dangerous now than ever before. Ever notice on these shows that if one is stopped in his car, he most likely has a firearm on him?

    From Homicide Hunter with Joe Kenda, I first learned about biorhythms. When one big city experiences a major uptick in crime, invariably all the big cities across the nation are experiencing the same thing. Unsurprisingly, with surging crime rates today, whites are en masse relocating to more homogeneous communities.

    Replies: @J.Ross, @Dan Smith, @Flip, @Pop Warner

    Unsurprisingly, with surging crime rates today, whites are en masse relocating to more homogeneous communities.

    There are lots of 90%+ white small towns all over America.

  25. So does that mean I can judge them on their skin due to the content of their collective character? It is even worse news for the black male when you consider the women are less likely to commit murder. More mind boggling is blacks rather cry slavery then deal with a problem that currently victimizes them.

  26. @JosephB
    @Harry Baldwin

    I chatted about this statistics with a high-volume defense attorney. The attorney said relatively few women are the triggerman, but are typically act as lookouts or getaway drivers, and are charged under felony murder rules. So while the statistics aren't in dispute, as a practical matter, it is far from obvious whether a 25-year old black woman or a 25-year old white man is more of a threat if you're walking alone late at night.

    I'd hoped to look at rates of aggravated assault by race, but did not find it in the FBI report. I realize aggravated assault isn't as good from a "moneyball" aspect, but I don't think DAs are as keen on going after drivers in such cases.

    Any other ideas on how to attack the problem?

    Replies: @Art Deco, @Truth

    I chatted about this statistics with a high-volume defense attorney. The attorney said relatively few women are the triggerman, but are typically act as lookouts or getaway drivers, and are charged under felony murder rules.

    I’m going to wager if you unpacked it that few women are charged with felony murder, and that women they’re tracking are largely people who killed family members / paramours in domestic settings (or, in slum zones, killed someone they got into a dispute with at a house party).

    • Replies: @JosephB
    @Art Deco

    I agree that it's plausible that most female-led murders are domestic disputes. As a consequence, I would be much more willing to walk past a 25-year old black woman late at night than a 25-year old white man.

  27. Crime stats be wayciss and sheeit, yo. Dem pOleeze be makin’ dis sheeit, up, word. Dem boyz dindu nuffin, dey be good chilren.

  28. @Art Deco
    @JosephB

    I chatted about this statistics with a high-volume defense attorney. The attorney said relatively few women are the triggerman, but are typically act as lookouts or getaway drivers, and are charged under felony murder rules.

    I'm going to wager if you unpacked it that few women are charged with felony murder, and that women they're tracking are largely people who killed family members / paramours in domestic settings (or, in slum zones, killed someone they got into a dispute with at a house party).

    Replies: @JosephB

    I agree that it’s plausible that most female-led murders are domestic disputes. As a consequence, I would be much more willing to walk past a 25-year old black woman late at night than a 25-year old white man.

  29. @Anonymous
    Are blacks in Africa as violent as blacks are in the United States?

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @NickG, @Andy, @PaceLaw

    South Africa has one of the highest murder rates in the world. Other African countries seem less violent (if you look at the homicide rates) only because the population is often too poor to even afford guns

    • Replies: @Cloudbuster
    @Andy

    Also because of the way different violent deaths are counted. Somali has rather a low homicide rate, but that seems to be accomplished by not including the half a million deaths due to the never-ending civil war .

    Replies: @Cloudbuster

    , @Anonymous
    @Andy

    South Africa has a ridiculously liberal judicial system. It's notably the only African country with no death penalty. An African country with Swedish laws. Blacks misbehave everywhere but they behave worst in places where they risk no serious punishment for their actions.

  30. @Charon
    The official stats wildly understate the case. They don't account for the many examples where closure (and conviction) cannot be obtained since snitches get stitches. Those examples skew (also wildly) in just one direction.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @SMK, @Athletic and Whitesplosive

    The official stats wildly understate the case. They don’t account for the many examples where closure (and conviction) cannot be obtained since snitches get stitches. Those examples skew (also wildly) in just one direction.

    Is there any data to back this up?

    • Replies: @SaneClownPosse
    @Anonymous

    Nice troll.

    No one in the 'hood is going to talk to the police about anything.

    The police try, but get nowhere.

  31. Steve,

    Slightly O/T, but another “mostly peaceful” wake occurs in Milwaukee, WI:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8791507/Five-people-shot-inside-Milwaukee-funeral-home.html

    Money quotes:

    “Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett condemned the shooting as ‘insanity’.

    ‘It’s the insanity of people solving their problems with guns. It’s just completely insane and we’re seeing way too much of that in this community this year,’ Barrett said at the scene.

    Barrett said that shootings in Milwaukee had declined in the past several years, only for them to skyrocket this year.”

    Gee, don’t know why. 🤷🏻‍♂️ Those crazy Germans and their gunplay.

  32. @Mr McKenna
    Yet another stat you'd better not even hint about with 'normies'.

    Funny thing though: they can tolerate the male/female disparity just fine.

    Replies: @ben tillman, @AnotherDad

    I disagree. This is the perfect thing to mention to normies. This is a provable fact.

  33. SMK says: • Website
    @Charon
    The official stats wildly understate the case. They don't account for the many examples where closure (and conviction) cannot be obtained since snitches get stitches. Those examples skew (also wildly) in just one direction.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @SMK, @Athletic and Whitesplosive

    Yes, what percentage and number of blacks who commit murder aren’t even arrested and thus aren’t counted statistically?

    What percentage and number of the “nonblack murder offenders” are Mestizos and pure Amerindians, or black “Hispanics” who are not defined as “black,” rather than whites and “Asians”? Racially, the category “Hispanic” causes nothing but confusion and ignorance, and should be abolished, both in the census and in crime statistics.

    And what percentage and number of female “murder offenders” are black? Is the disparity in murder rates between blacks and “nonblacks,” including millions of Muslims and tens of millions of Mestizos/Amerindians, even greater for females than for males? For example: black males on average are hundreds of times more likely to commit murder than “East Asian” women.

    • Replies: @HammerJack
    @SMK

    We're just like you!


    Defund police. Shatter model minority myth

    By The Berkeley Law Asian American Law Journal, Berkeley Law Asian Pacific American Law Students Association, and Berkeley Law South Asian Law Students Association

    Since the conclusion of World War II, Asian Americans have been used as a racial wedge between White Americans and other minority groups.


    Today, Asian Americans should stand in solidarity with Black Americans to actively combat the rampant police brutality and racism in society..

    Our challenge, as Asian Americans, is to unite with other minority communities against White supremacy, while centering Black voices and acknowledging the disparate impact police brutality and COVID-19 has had on Black communities.


    https://asamnews.com/2020/09/28/asian-american-tired-of-being-used-as-racial-wedge-call-for-change-in-criminal-justice-system/
     

  34. @JosephB
    @Harry Baldwin

    I chatted about this statistics with a high-volume defense attorney. The attorney said relatively few women are the triggerman, but are typically act as lookouts or getaway drivers, and are charged under felony murder rules. So while the statistics aren't in dispute, as a practical matter, it is far from obvious whether a 25-year old black woman or a 25-year old white man is more of a threat if you're walking alone late at night.

    I'd hoped to look at rates of aggravated assault by race, but did not find it in the FBI report. I realize aggravated assault isn't as good from a "moneyball" aspect, but I don't think DAs are as keen on going after drivers in such cases.

    Any other ideas on how to attack the problem?

    Replies: @Art Deco, @Truth

    You (as a man) would be more afraid of a 25 year-old black woman than a 25 year-old white man?

    Am I reading this correctly?

    • Replies: @SINCERITY.net
    @Truth

    No, you misread. .
    Rather
    A white woman should, statistically, be equally afraid of a white man as a white man afraid of a black man.

    A black woman would be equally afraid of a black woman or a white man.
    Tell that to BLM!!
    Why are white men not peacefully protesting? White Lives Matter! Violence against white men act

    VAWWA should be more prominent than VAWA Violence against women act, because in DOMESTIC violence women and men are actually EQUAL

    2. Interracial domestic violence is high
    Your Racist Father was Right.s Domestic violence rates are much higher in Black couples than white couples and slightly higher in mixed couples.
    https://4racism.org/domestic-violence-interracial.html

    3. Science Fraud (DV) by PC:
    Female domestic violence is rampant, violates the feminist politically correct narrative. This leading academic researcher describes all the tricks hw this fraud is committed.
    https://4racism.org/science-fraud-dv.html

    , @JosephB
    @Truth


    You (as a man) would be more afraid of a 25 year-old black woman than a 25 year-old white man?

    Am I reading this correctly?
     
    Not quite. I was expressing uncertainty about whom I should be more afraid of for committing violent crime. Someone pointed out that most female violence is probably domestic in nature rather than against strangers, so I lean towards being more afraid of the white guy.

    For murder, weapons are a huge equalizer. Even a surprise attack with a knife can result in a fatal encounter. Even if not fatal, I could wind up missing an eye. Maybe I'll just stay home when it's late.
  35. Steve, I think you cheated a little with this study by lumping the warm, friendly Latinos in with yourselves. Everyone knows as Unz and Reed say, that they are less violent than you are.

    • Disagree: throtler
  36. We can be certain that the always responsible MSM will report these numbers in response to the hysteria surrounding Black Lives Matter and the claim that Blacks are noble and peaceful people under constant assault by systemic racism.

  37. @Charon
    The official stats wildly understate the case. They don't account for the many examples where closure (and conviction) cannot be obtained since snitches get stitches. Those examples skew (also wildly) in just one direction.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @SMK, @Athletic and Whitesplosive

    I’ve seen some estimates where they use “reported race”, i.e. what the victim/witness called the race in as. Of course, not all murders have witnesses, but for things like assault you’d think those numbers would be fairly complete (most people who are assaulted will report it) and accurate (most people won’t mistake or lie about the race of their assailant, except maybe the most deranged anti-racist who doesn’t want non whites to look bad).

    • Replies: @TWS
    @Athletic and Whitesplosive

    Certain populations are notoriously unhelpful even as the victim of a crime they will not report it.

  38. @Thulean Friend
    Why is Steve Sailer and other manoids silent on the manoid crisis? If pointing out black propensity to violence is legitimate - and it is - the same principle must apply to manoids. Yet almost nothing is mentioned on the huge crisis of manoid violence and dysfunction in society.

    Replies: @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY), @Athletic and Whitesplosive

    If by “manoid” you mean male, and you’re trying to imply that (especially white) males aren’t commonly portrayed in media as the violent abusers of women, you may want to emerge from your cave and join us in the real world.

    Of course males being particularly prone to general “dysfunction” only exists in your addled delusions.

  39. @Anonymous
    Nothing really shocking here:

    This inference has been more or less obvious to anyone who takes the trouble to ponder on such things.

    A more challenging hypothesis, packing more of a punch, so to speak, is that if, on a capita basis, are black women more murderous than white men?
    Quick and dirty analysis seems to indicate a rough sort of equality here, although it would be illuminating to see a thorough analysis.

    Replies: @Harry Baldwin, @stillCARealist

    Were blacks always this bad? My vague impression, as Steve likes to say, is that they weren’t this violent before the Civil rights revolution. You’d have to compare shootings/stabbings with today’s murder rate since our medicine has gotten so much better, and since guns are more prevalent today… maybe they aren’t? These gang punks have an awful lot of them…. but I suspect that the drugs and gangs have made this all much worse than it should be.

    Why, after all the changes after WWII regarding civil rights, did the black crime rate, and specifically the murder rate rise so significantly?

    • Replies: @ATBOTL
    @stillCARealist

    Years ago, a study was discussed on this blog that showed the differential in homicide rates between blacks and whites in Philadelphia was the same in the 19th Century as it is today.

    , @res
    @stillCARealist


    Were blacks always this bad? My vague impression, as Steve likes to say, is that they weren’t this violent before the Civil rights revolution.
     
    This document has race specific arrest rates based on the FBI UCR data from 1965-1992 on pages 138/172 through 143/177 (first number is page in PDF, second is printed page number).
    https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/Digitization/148356NCJRS.pdf

    On page 139/173 hey give murder data as arrests per 100,000 population.

    In 1965 we had a ratio of 27.5 / 2.3 = 12
    In 1972 (peak black and overall murder arrest rate year at 10.5) we had a ratio of 48.2 / 4.9 = 9.8
    In 1981 (peak white murder arrest rate) we had a ratio of 34.6 / 5.8 = 6.0
    In 1992 we had a ratio of 33.0 / 4.8 = 6.9

    So the overall arrest rate disparity has actually decreased since 1965. The black murder arrest rate was over 40 from 1969-1974.

    P.S. Here is some deaths data from 1950-1964 which should help if I can't find arrest rate data.
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/series/sr_20/sr20_006acc.pdf
    Figure 1 shows the overall homicide rate from 1900-1964. It increased slowly from 1950-1964 with major changes earlier in the century.

    Replies: @res, @stillCARealist

    , @SaneClownPosse
    @stillCARealist

    Unofficial Jim Crow laws. Few guns in their hands before CRA. Step out of line and the locals took care of it. No TV coverage. No social media. What happens locally, stayed local.

    WW2 was when they started pushing white and black soldiers and sailors together.

    CRA was the weapon used to break up the black family unit. Feral children raised on the streets.

  40. Actor Rick Moranis was polar-beared in Manhattan:

    https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/10/02/rick-moranis-random-attack-on-upper-west-side/

    I hope he wasn’t injured too bad.

    The distinguising feature of the attacker? He was wearing an “I Love New York” sweatshirt.

    • Replies: @HammerJack
    @Mr. Anon

    Funny how when we're attacked, every day of the f*ing year, it's all "Defund the Police" and "Disparate Impact" and "Systemic Racism" but when it's one of their own, it's "I hope the police catch the bad guy" "Find This Man!" etc, and BTW the DM did manage to find his pic..

    https://i.ibb.co/G3QBHDQ/Capture-2020-10-02-20-27-50-2.png

    https://i.ibb.co/tpg7QM3/Capture-2020-10-02-20-31-33-2.png

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

  41. @Anonymous
    Are blacks in Africa as violent as blacks are in the United States?

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @NickG, @Andy, @PaceLaw

    I understand that South Africa is quite violent, but hey Africa is a HUGE continent! Lol! It may be anecdotal, but I know many African immigrants in this country who are alarmed by the high-crime rate of African Americans. Not surprisingly a lot of these immigrant Africans look down on African American culture.

  42. Steve,

    O/T again, but still in Wisconsin. Meghan lost her potential voter:

    https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/crime-and-courts/police-federal-law-enforcement-find-no-evidence-biracial-madison-woman-was-attacked/article_391b86cf-5253-5cde-bf22-7320c61255e8.html#tracking-source=home-breaking

    “But in a statement Friday morning, Madison police said it is “closing the investigation into this case. After an exhaustive probe, detectives were unable to corroborate or locate evidence consistent with what was reported.””

    Will “mostly peaceful” demonstrations break out in Madison?

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna
    @mmack

    Reminds me of the Charlottesville Police: "We couldn't locate Haven Monahan, but that doesn't mean he doesn't exist, and Believe All Women!"


    Bernstein's family said in a statement that they appreciated "the detailed investigative efforts by all involved in this case," asked for privacy and said they would not be granting interviews.
     
    It's a sensitive time, and this poor family has been traumatized. Why won't you people just leave us alone? I bet if the cops tried harder, they could have found those frat boys, but you know, systemic racism. Right Meghan?
  43. @NoobSpyBot
    If you watch any kind of true-crime show on TV - COPS, Live PD, First 48, Homicide Hunter with Joe Kenda etc. - judging by the suspects and the convicted you'd think that the USA was 75% black. And they are more dangerous now than ever before. Ever notice on these shows that if one is stopped in his car, he most likely has a firearm on him?

    From Homicide Hunter with Joe Kenda, I first learned about biorhythms. When one big city experiences a major uptick in crime, invariably all the big cities across the nation are experiencing the same thing. Unsurprisingly, with surging crime rates today, whites are en masse relocating to more homogeneous communities.

    Replies: @J.Ross, @Dan Smith, @Flip, @Pop Warner

    LivePD went out if its way to find white criminals and would avoid entertaining black counties for more boring white meth counties. It was a running joke among fans that when something good was starting to happen in Gwinnett County, Georgia or another mostly black county, the host Dan Abrams would cut it off and go to Nye County, Nevada.

    Of course the woke mob got the show canceled because pandering like that didn’t work and portraying police as anything but blue-clad Klansmen is forbidden to the Cult of Woke (brought to you by Proctor and Gamble)

    • Replies: @NoobSpyBot
    @Pop Warner

    Admittedly, of all the shows I mentioned, Live PD was the one I watched the least.

  44. The male female ratio is skewed by all the craziest men deciding to identify as women, so the overall gap you mention is likely much larger. You will not believe the number of cases, especially involving sexual abuse of children, where an obvious man (who is pictured) is referred, with a straight face, as “she”.

  45. @stillCARealist
    @Anonymous

    Were blacks always this bad? My vague impression, as Steve likes to say, is that they weren't this violent before the Civil rights revolution. You'd have to compare shootings/stabbings with today's murder rate since our medicine has gotten so much better, and since guns are more prevalent today... maybe they aren't? These gang punks have an awful lot of them.... but I suspect that the drugs and gangs have made this all much worse than it should be.

    Why, after all the changes after WWII regarding civil rights, did the black crime rate, and specifically the murder rate rise so significantly?

    Replies: @ATBOTL, @res, @SaneClownPosse

    Years ago, a study was discussed on this blog that showed the differential in homicide rates between blacks and whites in Philadelphia was the same in the 19th Century as it is today.

  46. @Andy
    @Anonymous

    South Africa has one of the highest murder rates in the world. Other African countries seem less violent (if you look at the homicide rates) only because the population is often too poor to even afford guns

    Replies: @Cloudbuster, @Anonymous

    Also because of the way different violent deaths are counted. Somali has rather a low homicide rate, but that seems to be accomplished by not including the half a million deaths due to the never-ending civil war .

    • Replies: @Cloudbuster
    @Cloudbuster

    Lol. the most dangerous Western European nation by homicide rate?

    Lichtenstein ... they had one homicide in 2018 that gave them a rate of 2.64!

    Don't want to be walking down those dangerous alpine alleys at night!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate#By_region

  47. @Cloudbuster
    @Andy

    Also because of the way different violent deaths are counted. Somali has rather a low homicide rate, but that seems to be accomplished by not including the half a million deaths due to the never-ending civil war .

    Replies: @Cloudbuster

    Lol. the most dangerous Western European nation by homicide rate?

    Lichtenstein … they had one homicide in 2018 that gave them a rate of 2.64!

    Don’t want to be walking down those dangerous alpine alleys at night!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate#By_region

  48. @Anonymous
    @Charon


    The official stats wildly understate the case. They don’t account for the many examples where closure (and conviction) cannot be obtained since snitches get stitches. Those examples skew (also wildly) in just one direction.
     
    Is there any data to back this up?

    Replies: @SaneClownPosse

    Nice troll.

    No one in the ‘hood is going to talk to the police about anything.

    The police try, but get nowhere.

  49. @stillCARealist
    @Anonymous

    Were blacks always this bad? My vague impression, as Steve likes to say, is that they weren't this violent before the Civil rights revolution. You'd have to compare shootings/stabbings with today's murder rate since our medicine has gotten so much better, and since guns are more prevalent today... maybe they aren't? These gang punks have an awful lot of them.... but I suspect that the drugs and gangs have made this all much worse than it should be.

    Why, after all the changes after WWII regarding civil rights, did the black crime rate, and specifically the murder rate rise so significantly?

    Replies: @ATBOTL, @res, @SaneClownPosse

    Were blacks always this bad? My vague impression, as Steve likes to say, is that they weren’t this violent before the Civil rights revolution.

    This document has race specific arrest rates based on the FBI UCR data from 1965-1992 on pages 138/172 through 143/177 (first number is page in PDF, second is printed page number).
    https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/Digitization/148356NCJRS.pdf

    On page 139/173 hey give murder data as arrests per 100,000 population.

    In 1965 we had a ratio of 27.5 / 2.3 = 12
    In 1972 (peak black and overall murder arrest rate year at 10.5) we had a ratio of 48.2 / 4.9 = 9.8
    In 1981 (peak white murder arrest rate) we had a ratio of 34.6 / 5.8 = 6.0
    In 1992 we had a ratio of 33.0 / 4.8 = 6.9

    So the overall arrest rate disparity has actually decreased since 1965. The black murder arrest rate was over 40 from 1969-1974.

    P.S. Here is some deaths data from 1950-1964 which should help if I can’t find arrest rate data.
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/series/sr_20/sr20_006acc.pdf
    Figure 1 shows the overall homicide rate from 1900-1964. It increased slowly from 1950-1964 with major changes earlier in the century.

    • Replies: @res
    @res

    Another paper.
    Homicide Trends in the United States, 1900-74
    https://europepmc.org/backend/ptpmcrender.fcgi?accid=PMC1435670&blobtype=pdf

    That and the PS link in my earlier comment have race and sex breakdowns which indicate non-white females commit murder at about twice the rate of white males pre-1975.

    More precisely, Table 2 in the earlier link gives age adjusted rates and ratios for non-white females to white males of:
    1950 11.5 / 3.9 = 2.9
    1974 16.0 / 8.7 = 1.8

    The earlier link has Table C indicating that:
    In 1950 non-whites were 10.4% of the population and committed 55.5% of the homicides.
    In 1960 non-whites were 11.4% of the population and committed 52.9% of the homicides.

    I guess some things don't change very much.

    Replies: @lavoisier, @James B. Shearer

    , @stillCARealist
    @res

    So the conclusion is that the black homicide rate has always been high?

    Also, what caused the jump in homicide right after 1900? Maybe the admittance to the union of AZ and NM.

    Replies: @res

  50. @stillCARealist
    @Anonymous

    Were blacks always this bad? My vague impression, as Steve likes to say, is that they weren't this violent before the Civil rights revolution. You'd have to compare shootings/stabbings with today's murder rate since our medicine has gotten so much better, and since guns are more prevalent today... maybe they aren't? These gang punks have an awful lot of them.... but I suspect that the drugs and gangs have made this all much worse than it should be.

    Why, after all the changes after WWII regarding civil rights, did the black crime rate, and specifically the murder rate rise so significantly?

    Replies: @ATBOTL, @res, @SaneClownPosse

    Unofficial Jim Crow laws. Few guns in their hands before CRA. Step out of line and the locals took care of it. No TV coverage. No social media. What happens locally, stayed local.

    WW2 was when they started pushing white and black soldiers and sailors together.

    CRA was the weapon used to break up the black family unit. Feral children raised on the streets.

  51. @res
    @stillCARealist


    Were blacks always this bad? My vague impression, as Steve likes to say, is that they weren’t this violent before the Civil rights revolution.
     
    This document has race specific arrest rates based on the FBI UCR data from 1965-1992 on pages 138/172 through 143/177 (first number is page in PDF, second is printed page number).
    https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/Digitization/148356NCJRS.pdf

    On page 139/173 hey give murder data as arrests per 100,000 population.

    In 1965 we had a ratio of 27.5 / 2.3 = 12
    In 1972 (peak black and overall murder arrest rate year at 10.5) we had a ratio of 48.2 / 4.9 = 9.8
    In 1981 (peak white murder arrest rate) we had a ratio of 34.6 / 5.8 = 6.0
    In 1992 we had a ratio of 33.0 / 4.8 = 6.9

    So the overall arrest rate disparity has actually decreased since 1965. The black murder arrest rate was over 40 from 1969-1974.

    P.S. Here is some deaths data from 1950-1964 which should help if I can't find arrest rate data.
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/series/sr_20/sr20_006acc.pdf
    Figure 1 shows the overall homicide rate from 1900-1964. It increased slowly from 1950-1964 with major changes earlier in the century.

    Replies: @res, @stillCARealist

    Another paper.
    Homicide Trends in the United States, 1900-74
    https://europepmc.org/backend/ptpmcrender.fcgi?accid=PMC1435670&blobtype=pdf

    That and the PS link in my earlier comment have race and sex breakdowns which indicate non-white females commit murder at about twice the rate of white males pre-1975.

    More precisely, Table 2 in the earlier link gives age adjusted rates and ratios for non-white females to white males of:
    1950 11.5 / 3.9 = 2.9
    1974 16.0 / 8.7 = 1.8

    The earlier link has Table C indicating that:
    In 1950 non-whites were 10.4% of the population and committed 55.5% of the homicides.
    In 1960 non-whites were 11.4% of the population and committed 52.9% of the homicides.

    I guess some things don’t change very much.

    • Thanks: ic1000, lavoisier
    • Replies: @lavoisier
    @res

    Quite a surprise this data. I would not have predicted these results.

    Replies: @res

    , @James B. Shearer
    @res

    "That and the PS link in my earlier comment have race and sex breakdowns which indicate non-white females commit murder at about twice the rate of white males pre-1975."

    I read somewhere once that the creation of women's shelters has cut the rate at which black women kill abusive husbands/lovers. Don't know if it is true.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @res

  52. anon[320] • Disclaimer says:

    Less OT than in other threads: Here is a series of timestamped images of Althea Bernstein’s vehicle on the Night of the Hawaiian Monahans.

    https://www.djournal.com/news/national/surveillance-images-show-path-of-althea-bernsteins-car-in-the-early-morning-hours-of-june/collection_d9ea20cb-7bd3-582d-a681-3e4340946f34.html#28

    There are a lot of cameras out there that most people do not even know about.

    Oh, and Althea is a liar who should be publicly shamed and ordered to pay the costs of the investigation. For a start.

  53. @Truth
    @JosephB

    You (as a man) would be more afraid of a 25 year-old black woman than a 25 year-old white man?

    Am I reading this correctly?

    Replies: @SINCERITY.net, @JosephB

    No, you misread. .
    Rather
    A white woman should, statistically, be equally afraid of a white man as a white man afraid of a black man.

    A black woman would be equally afraid of a black woman or a white man.
    Tell that to BLM!!
    Why are white men not peacefully protesting? White Lives Matter! Violence against white men act

    VAWWA should be more prominent than VAWA Violence against women act, because in DOMESTIC violence women and men are actually EQUAL

    2. Interracial domestic violence is high
    Your Racist Father was Right.s Domestic violence rates are much higher in Black couples than white couples and slightly higher in mixed couples.
    https://4racism.org/domestic-violence-interracial.html

    3. Science Fraud (DV) by PC:
    Female domestic violence is rampant, violates the feminist politically correct narrative. This leading academic researcher describes all the tricks hw this fraud is committed.
    https://4racism.org/science-fraud-dv.html

  54. @Truth
    @JosephB

    You (as a man) would be more afraid of a 25 year-old black woman than a 25 year-old white man?

    Am I reading this correctly?

    Replies: @SINCERITY.net, @JosephB

    You (as a man) would be more afraid of a 25 year-old black woman than a 25 year-old white man?

    Am I reading this correctly?

    Not quite. I was expressing uncertainty about whom I should be more afraid of for committing violent crime. Someone pointed out that most female violence is probably domestic in nature rather than against strangers, so I lean towards being more afraid of the white guy.

    For murder, weapons are a huge equalizer. Even a surprise attack with a knife can result in a fatal encounter. Even if not fatal, I could wind up missing an eye. Maybe I’ll just stay home when it’s late.

  55. @Mr McKenna
    Yet another stat you'd better not even hint about with 'normies'.

    Funny thing though: they can tolerate the male/female disparity just fine.

    Replies: @ben tillman, @AnotherDad

    Yet another stat you’d better not even hint about with ‘normies’.

    Funny thing though: they can tolerate the male/female disparity just fine.

    Agree with Ben. This package is particularly good for challenging the narrative. Especially with liberals who mouth feminist platitudes.

    The fact that the police overwhelmingly kill *men* … doesn’t seem to be a big issue with anyone.

    Because, of course, everyone who has been through high school actually understands that the “gender is a social construct” thing is complete nonsense. Men commit much more violent crime (female dysfunction manifests in BPD attention seeking in drama, less direct physical aggression) and correspondingly get shot by the cops an order of magnitude more.

    But blacks are only shot by the cops 2X more than their population percentage, while committing 7-8X more violent crime … national crisis!

    • Replies: @SINCERITY.net
    @AnotherDad

    “Liberals” (aka the illiberal Left) only care about protected historically repressed classes
    Men are a NOT “minority” compared to the 52% femalie “minority”, and women’s minority rights are weaker than Black’s, Muslim’s rights to be protected against true speech

    And muslim rape gangs in Rotherham, Telford, Swedish rock concerts, Cologne New Year’s festivities, and everywhere enjoy the Muslim rape cover-up privilege, which aces out women’s privilege to not be raped.

    , @Anon
    @AnotherDad

    I've tried it. It doesn't work.

    Facts and logic. Right.

  56. @SteveSailer is my great idol. But
    Even the great Steve forgets to always mention, to always hammer home the full truth, as pointed out in TruthRevolution.net
    Statistics are way way biased with the explicit purpose to reduce “prejudice”, to diminish the black – white race gap. In reality the TRUE black white crime gap is, thusly, BIGGER than the male-female crime gap.
    How many million BLM peaceful protest crimes are forgotten in the crime statistics?

    2. Black crime much worse than statistics indicate
    Snitches get stitches, witness intimidation, Blacks don’t report crime (shot spotter), Bronx Juries, ,Hispanics criminals counted as “White” increase white crime statistics
    https://4racism.org/worse-black-crime.html

    2. Multi-Level coverup – Compounded repression – Victims of minority criminals under-report, police hesitate …
    Victims of minority criminals under-report, police hesitate to investigate and to report minority criminals to media, media downplay, ignore, hide minority crime. Knowledge of police and media coverup makes victims… …
    https://sincerity.net/multi-level-coverup/

    Our own site focuses on the fact that all this cover-up and mis-reporting by lying press and by police is actually mandated by explicity written anti-racist Press style book ethics (APA, NYT, German PresseKodex 12.1 and more). @SteveSailer, your comments there would be more than welcome!

  57. @AnotherDad
    @Mr McKenna


    Yet another stat you’d better not even hint about with ‘normies’.

    Funny thing though: they can tolerate the male/female disparity just fine.
     

    Agree with Ben. This package is particularly good for challenging the narrative. Especially with liberals who mouth feminist platitudes.

    The fact that the police overwhelmingly kill *men* ... doesn't seem to be a big issue with anyone.

    Because, of course, everyone who has been through high school actually understands that the "gender is a social construct" thing is complete nonsense. Men commit much more violent crime (female dysfunction manifests in BPD attention seeking in drama, less direct physical aggression) and correspondingly get shot by the cops an order of magnitude more.

    But blacks are only shot by the cops 2X more than their population percentage, while committing 7-8X more violent crime ... national crisis!

    Replies: @SINCERITY.net, @Anon

    “Liberals” (aka the illiberal Left) only care about protected historically repressed classes
    Men are a NOT “minority” compared to the 52% femalie “minority”, and women’s minority rights are weaker than Black’s, Muslim’s rights to be protected against true speech

    And muslim rape gangs in Rotherham, Telford, Swedish rock concerts, Cologne New Year’s festivities, and everywhere enjoy the Muslim rape cover-up privilege, which aces out women’s privilege to not be raped.

  58. @Andy
    @Anonymous

    South Africa has one of the highest murder rates in the world. Other African countries seem less violent (if you look at the homicide rates) only because the population is often too poor to even afford guns

    Replies: @Cloudbuster, @Anonymous

    South Africa has a ridiculously liberal judicial system. It’s notably the only African country with no death penalty. An African country with Swedish laws. Blacks misbehave everywhere but they behave worst in places where they risk no serious punishment for their actions.

  59. @Athletic and Whitesplosive
    @Charon

    I've seen some estimates where they use "reported race", i.e. what the victim/witness called the race in as. Of course, not all murders have witnesses, but for things like assault you'd think those numbers would be fairly complete (most people who are assaulted will report it) and accurate (most people won't mistake or lie about the race of their assailant, except maybe the most deranged anti-racist who doesn't want non whites to look bad).

    Replies: @TWS

    Certain populations are notoriously unhelpful even as the victim of a crime they will not report it.

  60. @Mr. Anon
    Actor Rick Moranis was polar-beared in Manhattan:

    https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/10/02/rick-moranis-random-attack-on-upper-west-side/

    I hope he wasn't injured too bad.

    The distinguising feature of the attacker? He was wearing an "I Love New York" sweatshirt.

    Replies: @HammerJack

    Funny how when we’re attacked, every day of the f*ing year, it’s all “Defund the Police” and “Disparate Impact” and “Systemic Racism” but when it’s one of their own, it’s “I hope the police catch the bad guy” “Find This Man!” etc, and BTW the DM did manage to find his pic..

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @HammerJack

    Yeah, Hollywood types are often a**holes. As you say, they'll support BLM, until it's a fellow Actors Equity member who is attacked. Still, I have no reason to believe that Rick Moranis is an a**hole - he's just an innocent guy who was senselessly assaulted. I hope he's okay, and I hope they nail the guy who did it.

  61. @SMK
    @Charon

    Yes, what percentage and number of blacks who commit murder aren't even arrested and thus aren't counted statistically?

    What percentage and number of the "nonblack murder offenders" are Mestizos and pure Amerindians, or black "Hispanics" who are not defined as "black," rather than whites and "Asians"? Racially, the category "Hispanic" causes nothing but confusion and ignorance, and should be abolished, both in the census and in crime statistics.

    And what percentage and number of female "murder offenders" are black? Is the disparity in murder rates between blacks and "nonblacks," including millions of Muslims and tens of millions of Mestizos/Amerindians, even greater for females than for males? For example: black males on average are hundreds of times more likely to commit murder than "East Asian" women.

    Replies: @HammerJack

    We’re just like you!

    Defund police. Shatter model minority myth

    By The Berkeley Law Asian American Law Journal, Berkeley Law Asian Pacific American Law Students Association, and Berkeley Law South Asian Law Students Association

    Since the conclusion of World War II, Asian Americans have been used as a racial wedge between White Americans and other minority groups.

    Today, Asian Americans should stand in solidarity with Black Americans to actively combat the rampant police brutality and racism in society..

    Our challenge, as Asian Americans, is to unite with other minority communities against White supremacy, while centering Black voices and acknowledging the disparate impact police brutality and COVID-19 has had on Black communities.

    https://asamnews.com/2020/09/28/asian-american-tired-of-being-used-as-racial-wedge-call-for-change-in-criminal-justice-system/

  62. @mmack
    Steve,

    O/T again, but still in Wisconsin. Meghan lost her potential voter:

    https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/crime-and-courts/police-federal-law-enforcement-find-no-evidence-biracial-madison-woman-was-attacked/article_391b86cf-5253-5cde-bf22-7320c61255e8.html#tracking-source=home-breaking

    "But in a statement Friday morning, Madison police said it is "closing the investigation into this case. After an exhaustive probe, detectives were unable to corroborate or locate evidence consistent with what was reported.""

    Will "mostly peaceful" demonstrations break out in Madison?

    Replies: @Mr McKenna

    Reminds me of the Charlottesville Police: “We couldn’t locate Haven Monahan, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t exist, and Believe All Women!”

    Bernstein’s family said in a statement that they appreciated “the detailed investigative efforts by all involved in this case,” asked for privacy and said they would not be granting interviews.

    It’s a sensitive time, and this poor family has been traumatized. Why won’t you people just leave us alone? I bet if the cops tried harder, they could have found those frat boys, but you know, systemic racism. Right Meghan?

  63. @res
    @res

    Another paper.
    Homicide Trends in the United States, 1900-74
    https://europepmc.org/backend/ptpmcrender.fcgi?accid=PMC1435670&blobtype=pdf

    That and the PS link in my earlier comment have race and sex breakdowns which indicate non-white females commit murder at about twice the rate of white males pre-1975.

    More precisely, Table 2 in the earlier link gives age adjusted rates and ratios for non-white females to white males of:
    1950 11.5 / 3.9 = 2.9
    1974 16.0 / 8.7 = 1.8

    The earlier link has Table C indicating that:
    In 1950 non-whites were 10.4% of the population and committed 55.5% of the homicides.
    In 1960 non-whites were 11.4% of the population and committed 52.9% of the homicides.

    I guess some things don't change very much.

    Replies: @lavoisier, @James B. Shearer

    Quite a surprise this data. I would not have predicted these results.

    • Replies: @res
    @lavoisier

    I was expecting the "blacks much worse during/after civil rights than before" idea rather than "everybody became worse 1965 to 1974 with whites relatively (but not by absolute numbers) being affected more." Is that what you were thinking? Or did you mean the sex data?

    Don't know how much you looked at the data, but I thought those were some excellent long time series sets of data. I need to see If I can find something similar to tie them all the way into the present.

    Replies: @lavoisier

  64. The UK used to have a small number of random autopsies where there was no reason to suspect foul play. They discovered that women were as likely as men to murder their spouse. That was reported in the 1990s and I have no idea whether that program continues.

    Have you ever noticed that women are small and weak. They don’t beat their man to death. They poison him. As it starts with a punishment dose, he survives and the doctor “knows” what the problem is because his treatment “worked”. After years of treatment for his illness, he dies. The doctor knows exactly why he died because his treatment always appeared to work. The reason for death is “obvious” and another woman gets away with murder.

    The poisons used were very east to detect but had never been tested for by a doctor.

    There is now a move to eliminate the cost of autopsies because doctors “know” what is wrong with their patients. That ignores the cost of tests.

    Murder outside the home is dissimilar but it’s possible that women are more afraid of being caught. That could mean avoiding murder or taking more precautions. Women are better at murder but perhaps most are nervous about doing it unless they’re the cook.

    Does a woman-bashing man insist his woman do the cooking? Perhaps he should think that over. [email protected]

  65. @Pop Warner
    @NoobSpyBot

    LivePD went out if its way to find white criminals and would avoid entertaining black counties for more boring white meth counties. It was a running joke among fans that when something good was starting to happen in Gwinnett County, Georgia or another mostly black county, the host Dan Abrams would cut it off and go to Nye County, Nevada.

    Of course the woke mob got the show canceled because pandering like that didn't work and portraying police as anything but blue-clad Klansmen is forbidden to the Cult of Woke (brought to you by Proctor and Gamble)

    Replies: @NoobSpyBot

    Admittedly, of all the shows I mentioned, Live PD was the one I watched the least.

  66. @lavoisier
    @res

    Quite a surprise this data. I would not have predicted these results.

    Replies: @res

    I was expecting the “blacks much worse during/after civil rights than before” idea rather than “everybody became worse 1965 to 1974 with whites relatively (but not by absolute numbers) being affected more.” Is that what you were thinking? Or did you mean the sex data?

    Don’t know how much you looked at the data, but I thought those were some excellent long time series sets of data. I need to see If I can find something similar to tie them all the way into the present.

    • Replies: @lavoisier
    @res

    The former.

    The data you presented suggests that excess black criminality appears to be persistent across various social environments.

    I really thought that black criminality would have exploded after the Civil Rights Era and our society wallowing in making excuses for black dysfunction.

    Its persistence over different periods of time is deeply troubling and calls into question our ability to solve this problem in a reasonable manner.

    Thank you for taking the time to present the information.

    Replies: @res

  67. @res
    @res

    Another paper.
    Homicide Trends in the United States, 1900-74
    https://europepmc.org/backend/ptpmcrender.fcgi?accid=PMC1435670&blobtype=pdf

    That and the PS link in my earlier comment have race and sex breakdowns which indicate non-white females commit murder at about twice the rate of white males pre-1975.

    More precisely, Table 2 in the earlier link gives age adjusted rates and ratios for non-white females to white males of:
    1950 11.5 / 3.9 = 2.9
    1974 16.0 / 8.7 = 1.8

    The earlier link has Table C indicating that:
    In 1950 non-whites were 10.4% of the population and committed 55.5% of the homicides.
    In 1960 non-whites were 11.4% of the population and committed 52.9% of the homicides.

    I guess some things don't change very much.

    Replies: @lavoisier, @James B. Shearer

    “That and the PS link in my earlier comment have race and sex breakdowns which indicate non-white females commit murder at about twice the rate of white males pre-1975.”

    I read somewhere once that the creation of women’s shelters has cut the rate at which black women kill abusive husbands/lovers. Don’t know if it is true.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @James B. Shearer

    Right, I think the female murder rate is down considerably.

    , @res
    @James B. Shearer

    Thanks. That is an interesting point. This link has some relevant statistics.
    Domestic Violence in Communities of Color WOCN, Inc. FAQ Collection
    https://wocninc.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/DVFAQ-1.pdf

    I'm actually surprised the B/W disparity in DV is this small. Also, anyone have any thoughts on the relatively low Hispanic rate?


    Based on the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), between 2003-2012 at the rate of 4.7 per 1,000 Black/African/African Americans had the highest rates of intimate partner violence compared to Whites (3.9 per 1,000) and Hispanics (2.3 per 1,000).7
     
    I had hoped I would be able to tie this publication into my earlier data, but unfortunately they present race/sex data without tables and only in age bins. I miss the clarity of the old data. See Figures 22a-d.
    Homicide Trends in the United States, 1980-2008
    https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/htus8008.pdf

    I see two conclusions relevant to this whole thread which we can draw from that data.

    1. A steady and strong (factor of 2-4 depending on age group) decline in black female homicide rates over that time. I think that supports your point.

    2. Over that period white males have gone from having comparable or lower homicide rates than black females to being significantly (~2x for age 18-24) higher.

    The stability of white female homicide rates over that period is stunning compared to the variation seen in the other three groups.
  68. @Dan Smith
    @NoobSpyBot

    Live PD is returning to the air. I never understood the reason why A&E yanked it but not First 48, which shows over and over why black aggression is so over the top against other ghetto residents. Live PD had some comedic moments and many of the perps were white.

    Replies: @Anonymous

    I never understood the reason why A&E yanked it but not First 48, which shows over and over why black aggression is so over the top against other ghetto residents.

    Why is black aggression so over the top against other ghetto residents?

  69. @James B. Shearer
    @res

    "That and the PS link in my earlier comment have race and sex breakdowns which indicate non-white females commit murder at about twice the rate of white males pre-1975."

    I read somewhere once that the creation of women's shelters has cut the rate at which black women kill abusive husbands/lovers. Don't know if it is true.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @res

    Right, I think the female murder rate is down considerably.

  70. @HammerJack
    @Mr. Anon

    Funny how when we're attacked, every day of the f*ing year, it's all "Defund the Police" and "Disparate Impact" and "Systemic Racism" but when it's one of their own, it's "I hope the police catch the bad guy" "Find This Man!" etc, and BTW the DM did manage to find his pic..

    https://i.ibb.co/G3QBHDQ/Capture-2020-10-02-20-27-50-2.png

    https://i.ibb.co/tpg7QM3/Capture-2020-10-02-20-31-33-2.png

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    Yeah, Hollywood types are often a**holes. As you say, they’ll support BLM, until it’s a fellow Actors Equity member who is attacked. Still, I have no reason to believe that Rick Moranis is an a**hole – he’s just an innocent guy who was senselessly assaulted. I hope he’s okay, and I hope they nail the guy who did it.

  71. “here is an extraordinary statistic:”

    Why is this “extraordinary”?

    As far back as I’ve looked at the stats, it’s the way things are, always and everywhere.

    Anybody even vaguely aware of Human Biodiversity knows that.

  72. @res
    @lavoisier

    I was expecting the "blacks much worse during/after civil rights than before" idea rather than "everybody became worse 1965 to 1974 with whites relatively (but not by absolute numbers) being affected more." Is that what you were thinking? Or did you mean the sex data?

    Don't know how much you looked at the data, but I thought those were some excellent long time series sets of data. I need to see If I can find something similar to tie them all the way into the present.

    Replies: @lavoisier

    The former.

    The data you presented suggests that excess black criminality appears to be persistent across various social environments.

    I really thought that black criminality would have exploded after the Civil Rights Era and our society wallowing in making excuses for black dysfunction.

    Its persistence over different periods of time is deeply troubling and calls into question our ability to solve this problem in a reasonable manner.

    Thank you for taking the time to present the information.

    • Replies: @res
    @lavoisier

    Thanks for clarifying.


    I really thought that black criminality would have exploded after the Civil Rights Era and our society wallowing in making excuses for black dysfunction.
     
    Same here. If you look more closely at the data you can see that happened in terms of the absolute rate of black crime. But white crime (here murders) increased enough in relative terms to more than offset that when we look at the ratio of black and white murder rates.

    Does that make sense or should I go to the trouble of running through the numbers?

    Replies: @lavoisier

  73. @AnotherDad
    @Mr McKenna


    Yet another stat you’d better not even hint about with ‘normies’.

    Funny thing though: they can tolerate the male/female disparity just fine.
     

    Agree with Ben. This package is particularly good for challenging the narrative. Especially with liberals who mouth feminist platitudes.

    The fact that the police overwhelmingly kill *men* ... doesn't seem to be a big issue with anyone.

    Because, of course, everyone who has been through high school actually understands that the "gender is a social construct" thing is complete nonsense. Men commit much more violent crime (female dysfunction manifests in BPD attention seeking in drama, less direct physical aggression) and correspondingly get shot by the cops an order of magnitude more.

    But blacks are only shot by the cops 2X more than their population percentage, while committing 7-8X more violent crime ... national crisis!

    Replies: @SINCERITY.net, @Anon

    I’ve tried it. It doesn’t work.

    Facts and logic. Right.

  74. @res
    @stillCARealist


    Were blacks always this bad? My vague impression, as Steve likes to say, is that they weren’t this violent before the Civil rights revolution.
     
    This document has race specific arrest rates based on the FBI UCR data from 1965-1992 on pages 138/172 through 143/177 (first number is page in PDF, second is printed page number).
    https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/Digitization/148356NCJRS.pdf

    On page 139/173 hey give murder data as arrests per 100,000 population.

    In 1965 we had a ratio of 27.5 / 2.3 = 12
    In 1972 (peak black and overall murder arrest rate year at 10.5) we had a ratio of 48.2 / 4.9 = 9.8
    In 1981 (peak white murder arrest rate) we had a ratio of 34.6 / 5.8 = 6.0
    In 1992 we had a ratio of 33.0 / 4.8 = 6.9

    So the overall arrest rate disparity has actually decreased since 1965. The black murder arrest rate was over 40 from 1969-1974.

    P.S. Here is some deaths data from 1950-1964 which should help if I can't find arrest rate data.
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/series/sr_20/sr20_006acc.pdf
    Figure 1 shows the overall homicide rate from 1900-1964. It increased slowly from 1950-1964 with major changes earlier in the century.

    Replies: @res, @stillCARealist

    So the conclusion is that the black homicide rate has always been high?

    Also, what caused the jump in homicide right after 1900? Maybe the admittance to the union of AZ and NM.

    • Replies: @res
    @stillCARealist


    So the conclusion is that the black homicide rate has always been high?
     
    I think so. Figure 2 in the 1900-1974 paper shows that quite clearly for 1940-1973.
    https://europepmc.org/backend/ptpmcrender.fcgi?accid=PMC1435670&blobtype=pdf

    That is a good graphic to look at to understand my conversation with lavoisier. It quite clearly shows the dramatic increase in black (non-white here) male murder rate from 40 per 100,000 in (these numbers are all rough, I am reading from a graph) to 70 in 1972. Less clear, but visible, is an increase in the white male rate from maybe 4 to 8 over the same period. Hopefully that makes apparent what I mean in talking about relative vs. absolute numbers.

    1964: 40 / 4 = 10
    1972: 70/8 = 9


    Also, what caused the jump in homicide right after 1900? Maybe the admittance to the union of AZ and NM.
     
    Good question. That is seen in Figure 1. In the text of the paper we see:

    Unless otherwise noted, the rates shown in this report are based on deaths that occurred in the death registration States from 1900 to 1932
     
    I think this note on page 200 offers a clue.

    NOTE: Death rates for years prior to 1932 are not shown because of the break in continuity of homicide rates resulting from the rapidly expanding group of States in the "Death Registration Area."
     
    Page 8 of this document has maps of the death registration states for 1900, 1910, and 1920.
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsushistorical/mortrates_1910-1920.pdf

    They also give estimates of coverage for population and area at each time. Note that they state there are more cities (in 1900 133 additional cities) included.

    This document has the annual homicide rates from 1900-1940.
    http://www.nber.org/vital-stats-books/vsrates1900_40.CV.pdf

    Page 96/102 has Table AD which gives the year each state was added to the death registration system.

    In 1906 CA, CO, MD, PA, and SD were added so that is probably a big part of the increase you observe.

    It turns out the also give data limited to the 1900, 1910, and 1920 states separately. Probably best to look at them together for trend information and use the first for 1900-1909, second for 1910-1919, and third for 1920-1929.

    Table 17 shows homicide mortality rates for the 1900 death registration states. We see a sharp increase from 1.3 in 1904 to 3.9 in 1907 so that is NOT a statistical artifact caused just by adding states. But the rate is fairly stable after until we see 4.2 in 1920. See pp. 301-302. BTW, they include victim data by race starting in 1910 which makes it possible to get a first order estimate on offender rates by race by assuming all murder is intraracial.

    From 4.6 in 1921 we see a slow increase to 5.3 in 1931 followed by a drop to 2.7 in 1940. See pp. 309-310.

    Table 18 has similar data for the 1910 death registration states. There we see similar trends, but with somewhat higher numbers (4.6 in 1910, 4.9 in 1920, 5.7 in 1931, 3.2 in 1940). So the additional states do contribute something to the increase you observed.

    Table 19 has similar data for the 1920 death registration states. There we see similar trends, but with substantially higher numbers (6.8 in 1920, 8.5 in 1931, 5.4 in 1940).

    Table 16 has the overall numbers which I believe are what appear in Figure 1. 1.3 in 1904, 4.9 in 1907 (so 2.6 of that increase due to change in original states and an additional 1.0 due to new states), 6.8 in 1920, 9.2 in 1931, and 6.2 in 1940.

    So you were definitely right about adding states making a difference, but for1904-1907 the larger part of the increase was contributed by a tripling of the rate in the original states.

    Any idea what might have caused that? The only historical event that strikes me is the Panic of 1907, but that was in October and the increase was spread out over the entire 1904-1907 interval.

    P.S. There is a similar document focusing on annual statistics for 1900-1904 at
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsushistorical/mortstatsh_1900-1904.pdf

  75. @James B. Shearer
    @res

    "That and the PS link in my earlier comment have race and sex breakdowns which indicate non-white females commit murder at about twice the rate of white males pre-1975."

    I read somewhere once that the creation of women's shelters has cut the rate at which black women kill abusive husbands/lovers. Don't know if it is true.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @res

    Thanks. That is an interesting point. This link has some relevant statistics.
    Domestic Violence in Communities of Color WOCN, Inc. FAQ Collection
    https://wocninc.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/DVFAQ-1.pdf

    I’m actually surprised the B/W disparity in DV is this small. Also, anyone have any thoughts on the relatively low Hispanic rate?

    Based on the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), between 2003-2012 at the rate of 4.7 per 1,000 Black/African/African Americans had the highest rates of intimate partner violence compared to Whites (3.9 per 1,000) and Hispanics (2.3 per 1,000).7

    I had hoped I would be able to tie this publication into my earlier data, but unfortunately they present race/sex data without tables and only in age bins. I miss the clarity of the old data. See Figures 22a-d.
    Homicide Trends in the United States, 1980-2008
    https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/htus8008.pdf

    I see two conclusions relevant to this whole thread which we can draw from that data.

    1. A steady and strong (factor of 2-4 depending on age group) decline in black female homicide rates over that time. I think that supports your point.

    2. Over that period white males have gone from having comparable or lower homicide rates than black females to being significantly (~2x for age 18-24) higher.

    The stability of white female homicide rates over that period is stunning compared to the variation seen in the other three groups.

  76. @lavoisier
    @res

    The former.

    The data you presented suggests that excess black criminality appears to be persistent across various social environments.

    I really thought that black criminality would have exploded after the Civil Rights Era and our society wallowing in making excuses for black dysfunction.

    Its persistence over different periods of time is deeply troubling and calls into question our ability to solve this problem in a reasonable manner.

    Thank you for taking the time to present the information.

    Replies: @res

    Thanks for clarifying.

    I really thought that black criminality would have exploded after the Civil Rights Era and our society wallowing in making excuses for black dysfunction.

    Same here. If you look more closely at the data you can see that happened in terms of the absolute rate of black crime. But white crime (here murders) increased enough in relative terms to more than offset that when we look at the ratio of black and white murder rates.

    Does that make sense or should I go to the trouble of running through the numbers?

    • Replies: @lavoisier
    @res

    Makes perfect sense. Regardless of the absolute crime numbers in different periods, black people commit these crimes at rates far greater than do white people.

    Have you looked at the inter-racial rape statistics? Just a cursory overview of this serious crime suggests overwhelming black participation.

    The more you look at these things the color of crime becomes even darker.

  77. @stillCARealist
    @res

    So the conclusion is that the black homicide rate has always been high?

    Also, what caused the jump in homicide right after 1900? Maybe the admittance to the union of AZ and NM.

    Replies: @res

    So the conclusion is that the black homicide rate has always been high?

    I think so. Figure 2 in the 1900-1974 paper shows that quite clearly for 1940-1973.
    https://europepmc.org/backend/ptpmcrender.fcgi?accid=PMC1435670&blobtype=pdf

    That is a good graphic to look at to understand my conversation with lavoisier. It quite clearly shows the dramatic increase in black (non-white here) male murder rate from 40 per 100,000 in (these numbers are all rough, I am reading from a graph) to 70 in 1972. Less clear, but visible, is an increase in the white male rate from maybe 4 to 8 over the same period. Hopefully that makes apparent what I mean in talking about relative vs. absolute numbers.

    1964: 40 / 4 = 10
    1972: 70/8 = 9

    Also, what caused the jump in homicide right after 1900? Maybe the admittance to the union of AZ and NM.

    Good question. That is seen in Figure 1. In the text of the paper we see:

    Unless otherwise noted, the rates shown in this report are based on deaths that occurred in the death registration States from 1900 to 1932

    I think this note on page 200 offers a clue.

    NOTE: Death rates for years prior to 1932 are not shown because of the break in continuity of homicide rates resulting from the rapidly expanding group of States in the “Death Registration Area.”

    Page 8 of this document has maps of the death registration states for 1900, 1910, and 1920.
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsushistorical/mortrates_1910-1920.pdf

    They also give estimates of coverage for population and area at each time. Note that they state there are more cities (in 1900 133 additional cities) included.

    This document has the annual homicide rates from 1900-1940.
    http://www.nber.org/vital-stats-books/vsrates1900_40.CV.pdf

    Page 96/102 has Table AD which gives the year each state was added to the death registration system.

    In 1906 CA, CO, MD, PA, and SD were added so that is probably a big part of the increase you observe.

    It turns out the also give data limited to the 1900, 1910, and 1920 states separately. Probably best to look at them together for trend information and use the first for 1900-1909, second for 1910-1919, and third for 1920-1929.

    Table 17 shows homicide mortality rates for the 1900 death registration states. We see a sharp increase from 1.3 in 1904 to 3.9 in 1907 so that is NOT a statistical artifact caused just by adding states. But the rate is fairly stable after until we see 4.2 in 1920. See pp. 301-302. BTW, they include victim data by race starting in 1910 which makes it possible to get a first order estimate on offender rates by race by assuming all murder is intraracial.

    From 4.6 in 1921 we see a slow increase to 5.3 in 1931 followed by a drop to 2.7 in 1940. See pp. 309-310.

    Table 18 has similar data for the 1910 death registration states. There we see similar trends, but with somewhat higher numbers (4.6 in 1910, 4.9 in 1920, 5.7 in 1931, 3.2 in 1940). So the additional states do contribute something to the increase you observed.

    Table 19 has similar data for the 1920 death registration states. There we see similar trends, but with substantially higher numbers (6.8 in 1920, 8.5 in 1931, 5.4 in 1940).

    Table 16 has the overall numbers which I believe are what appear in Figure 1. 1.3 in 1904, 4.9 in 1907 (so 2.6 of that increase due to change in original states and an additional 1.0 due to new states), 6.8 in 1920, 9.2 in 1931, and 6.2 in 1940.

    So you were definitely right about adding states making a difference, but for1904-1907 the larger part of the increase was contributed by a tripling of the rate in the original states.

    Any idea what might have caused that? The only historical event that strikes me is the Panic of 1907, but that was in October and the increase was spread out over the entire 1904-1907 interval.

    P.S. There is a similar document focusing on annual statistics for 1900-1904 at
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsushistorical/mortstatsh_1900-1904.pdf

  78. @res
    @lavoisier

    Thanks for clarifying.


    I really thought that black criminality would have exploded after the Civil Rights Era and our society wallowing in making excuses for black dysfunction.
     
    Same here. If you look more closely at the data you can see that happened in terms of the absolute rate of black crime. But white crime (here murders) increased enough in relative terms to more than offset that when we look at the ratio of black and white murder rates.

    Does that make sense or should I go to the trouble of running through the numbers?

    Replies: @lavoisier

    Makes perfect sense. Regardless of the absolute crime numbers in different periods, black people commit these crimes at rates far greater than do white people.

    Have you looked at the inter-racial rape statistics? Just a cursory overview of this serious crime suggests overwhelming black participation.

    The more you look at these things the color of crime becomes even darker.

  79. Whoa. Something’s wrong here: Blacks are about 13% of the population. They commit just over half of homicides, call it 52%. So the Black rate for homicides is about four times the expected rate, not eight times. Why such a big difference? I don’t have those figures handy, but I’d believe 8x ratio compared to Whites, etc. Careful with your statistics, guys.

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