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Excess Deaths Graphed
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A lot of people seem to be under the misperception that the pandemic isn’t causing excess deaths. Here’s a CDC graph showing weekly deaths in the United States from all causes going back to the beginning of 2017.

The blue bars represent how many people died each week in the US from any and all causes: whether COVID, cancer, a broken heart, or BASE-jumping.

The orange line tracks long-term average deaths for that week of the year, while the red line shows what the CDC considers the bottom of the range of definitely excessive deaths, which are marked with red crosses on the blue bars. For example, there was a brief spell of excess deaths in January 2018, and then the three humps of the COVID pandemic: the big one that peaked in mid-April 2020, the summer hump largely in the sunbelt, and the current Third Hump that began in early autumn in the Dakotas and has been spreading steadily since.

Keep in mind this technical methodology decision: that the CDC chose to graph actual date of death rather than when the data trickled in to the CDC. So the blue bars keep growing in height for up to 8 weeks after the death takes place. Therefore, you can see the current Third Hump of deaths at the right edge of the graph, but please don’t get the impression that because the very latest week shows a sudden drop in deaths that that means the country is out of the woods. The latest week being very low is just an artifact of how long it takes death notices to trickle in. The Third Hump is likely already worse than the Second Hump in the mid-summer if the CDC had notice of all the recent deaths.

Here are the weekly data for 2020. Keep in mind that the most recent weeks at the bottom of this table understate the actual number of deaths due to not all death reports having trickled in yet. And December is likely to be pretty bad when finally counted up sometime in February.

Week Ending Date State Observed Deaths Average Expected Count Excess Deaths Excess Deaths % Cumulative 2020 Excess Deaths Cumulative 2020 Excess Deaths %
1/4/20 USA 60,164 59,667 497 1% 497 1%
1/11/20 USA 60,709 60,034 675 1% 1,172 1%
1/18/20 USA 59,358 60,197 -839 -1% 333 0%
1/25/20 USA 59,136 60,199 -1,063 -2% (730) 0%
2/1/20 USA 58,792 59,681 -889 -1% (1,619) -1%
2/8/20 USA 59,366 59,490 -124 0% (1,743) 0%
2/15/20 USA 58,782 59,316 -534 -1% (2,277) -1%
2/22/20 USA 58,868 59,040 -172 0% (2,449) -1%
2/29/20 USA 59,280 58,598 682 1% (1,767) 0%
3/7/20 USA 59,623 58,386 1,237 2% (530) 0%
3/14/20 USA 58,633 58,019 614 1% 84 0%
3/21/20 USA 59,181 57,632 1,549 3% 1,633 0%
3/28/20 USA 62,985 57,139 5,846 10% 7,479 1%
4/4/20 USA 72,241 56,548 15,693 28% 23,172 3%
4/11/20 USA 79,029 55,988 23,041 41% 46,213 5%
4/18/20 USA 76,744 55,405 21,339 39% 67,552 7%
4/25/20 USA 73,831 54,786 19,045 35% 86,597 9%
5/2/20 USA 69,256 54,180 15,076 28% 101,673 10%
5/9/20 USA 66,759 53,724 13,035 24% 114,708 10%
5/16/20 USA 64,407 53,362 11,045 21% 125,753 11%
5/23/20 USA 61,544 53,034 8,510 16% 134,263 11%
5/30/20 USA 59,610 52,823 6,787 13% 141,050 11%
6/6/20 USA 58,817 52,687 6,130 12% 147,180 11%
6/13/20 USA 57,949 52,506 5,443 10% 152,623 11%
6/20/20 USA 58,244 52,468 5,776 11% 158,399 11%
6/27/20 USA 58,734 52,317 6,417 12% 164,816 11%
7/4/20 USA 60,090 52,128 7,962 15% 172,778 11%
7/11/20 USA 62,165 51,980 10,185 20% 182,963 12%
7/18/20 USA 63,431 51,841 11,590 22% 194,553 12%
7/25/20 USA 64,474 51,696 12,778 25% 207,331 12%
8/1/20 USA 64,474 51,546 12,928 25% 220,259 13%
8/8/20 USA 63,932 51,512 12,420 24% 232,679 13%
8/15/20 USA 63,822 51,489 12,333 24% 245,012 13%
8/22/20 USA 62,696 51,563 11,133 22% 256,145 14%
8/29/20 USA 61,045 51,619 9,426 18% 265,571 14%
9/5/20 USA 59,613 51,840 7,773 15% 273,344 14%
9/12/20 USA 58,469 52,025 6,444 12% 279,788 14%
9/19/20 USA 58,320 52,317 6,003 11% 285,791 14%
9/26/20 USA 59,258 52,650 6,608 13% 292,399 14%
10/3/20 USA 58,290 53,027 5,263 10% 297,662 14%
10/10/20 USA 60,091 53,342 6,749 13% 304,411 14%
10/17/20 USA 58,728 53,737 4,991 9% 309,402 13%
10/24/20 USA 60,187 54,157 6,030 11% 315,432 13%
10/31/20 USA 61,007 54,594 6,413 12% 321,845 13%
11/7/20 USA 63,786 54,953 8,833 16% 330,678 13%
11/14/20 USA 64,177 55,296 8,881 16% 339,559 13%
11/21/20 USA 63,347 55,830 7,517 13% 347,076 13%
11/28/20 USA 55,890 56,290 -400 -1% 346,676 13%
 
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  1. Anonymous[248] • Disclaimer says:

    I live in a city with millions. All this would be more believable if I knew of a single person who died from it. LOL

    Yeah a few grandpas in their late 70s got sick but got over it.

    But I’m sure there’s an uptick, what you’d expect with kind of a bad bug going around. It happens. No reason to destroy the country. And overall, I’m sorry, but this was no biggie.

    • Replies: @PiltdownMan
    @Anonymous

    I knew three people who died of Covid-19. One was a relative by marriage, in his early 60s, another, a college friend about the same age, and the third, a 93 year old father of another college buddy. All were well, and had no medical issues or chronic conditions prior to their illness.

    Replies: @Buck Ransom, @Old Prude, @Hippopotamusdrome

    , @dataBro
    @Anonymous

    Dunbar's number is 150. You know 150 people, that you can plausibly keep track of give or take. Covid has killed 1 out of 1000 people in the US. Most folks don't know anyone who died. Once we get to 1 in 300, 50% of people will have someone in their network who has died. It's worse than that though, most peoples 150 is not random, so how many actually over 70 folks are in your network. If you are young not too many.

    The numbers don't lie, my wife is a nurse, hospital is full, people are dying, I only know friends of friends who've died. But the CDC is not making this shit up. Maybe you have a someone in your network who works at a hospital? Ask them.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Hippopotamusdrome

    , @Lurker
    @Anonymous

    Anecdote alert! I work in an extended group of over 100 people, some were furloughed for a while but other than that we worked all year mixing with the public. None of us have got ill and tested positive. None of us have died. I was sent home with a cold for a day or two in March - just in case.

    , @My SIMPLE Pseudonymic Handle
    @Anonymous

    Of all those excess deaths due to Covid how many can be attributed to Cuomo forcing old geyzers out of hospitals and back into nursing homes? I don't remember but weren't other Governors also quilty of this practice? Whitmer and Wolf? I think it might be better to label those deaths as murdered by Governor instead of dying of Covid.

    Also, weren't quite a few folks murdered earlier in the year when people were placed on ventilators destroying their lung function? So, maybe we should subtract those deaths from the official statistics since they died by ventilator, or shall we just say physician malpractice?

    Wouldn't it also be appropriate to separate out the people that may have tested positive for Covid at some point in the year but then later died asymptomatic? I mean if you didn't have any symptoms did your really die of Covid? You know, like you died in an automobile accident on the way home from the Covid testing center but your results came back positive?

    Now, shouldn't we also subtract out all the people that died as a result of BLM/Antifa peaceful protests? Is that guy that had the statue dropped on him still alive? Didn't you like the way the white chick that was instrumental in helping bring down the statue slinked out of the area instead of sticking around to make sure the poor shlub was still ok?

    I mean Rittenhouse is responsible for two. Did they count those as Covid deaths also?

    And, how can we count anyone that died that had more than one co-morbidity as a Covid death? Can we really ascertain with certainty that they actually died of Covid and not their co-morbidity?

    Luckily with hospitals shut down and doctors not seeing patients we should be able to subtract the approximate 250k they kill a year. But, as others point out in the comments the toll taken on the mental and physical health of people out of work should really be subtracted off the totals as well. (But, that shouldn't stop us from including them in the indictments of Crimes Against Humanity for the top perpetrators of this technocratic nightmare like Bill Gates, Fauci, Cuomo, Wolf, Whitmer, Newsome, etc.)

    I'm sure if we apply the appropriate filters we can get the count of possible actual Corona Virus deaths down to less than 20K this year. But, that would go against the narrative of this being the most deadly pandemic well since the 1918 Spanish Flu.


    Now, if anyone wants to see a film showcasing the coming Technocratic Fascist State they should watch the movie "The Day the Earth Stood Still". I watched it last night on TCM and the parallels with whats going on today were pretty much evident in a film from the 50's.

    The ramping of fear over some unknown external event, military takeover of police functions, politicians being subordinated, all the while the brilliant minds of the time would provide the answers. You know them as technocrats. You'll be surprised how it parallels with what's going on today sans the face diapers. And, it did cover depopulation if the people of Earth didn't fall into line with the all knowing all powerful Cosmic Technocrats.

    , @Occasional lurker
    @Anonymous

    It's not the black death, but it's also not the flu. All of western Europe (UK, Netherlands, France, belgium, Spain, Italy) tried hard to ignore the virus ("less severe than the flu") and do essentially nothing. but it didn't work, there is a point when in fact everyone knows someone who is in hospital, when care homes are no longer functioning because staff are off sick or are too scared to treat the sick (no one wore masks and distanced so viral loads in the average infection were high), when hospitals get overwhelmed.
    Whether you take official measures or not, about one third of the population severely restricted their contacts and their free time activities, and that's what brings the economy down. My parents, who are great travellers, haven' travelled at all this years, although most of the year they would have been able to, and istead of 5 times per month the went to a restaurant only two or three times during this whole years, and than was in summer when incidences were very low in Germany and they could sit outside.

    Warm Countries with young populations and low rates of A blood type can easily ignore COVID, for others, it's more difficult.

  2. An extra line to show the economic cost of the lockdowns would be great. Have we spent the equivalent of a couple Manhattan Projects to slide the end date for octogenarians one way or the other a bit?

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
    • Replies: @Alden
    @Farenheit

    Not just octogenarians, but octogenarians with cancer, COPD, severe cardiovascular problems and other conditions. That’s why nursing home deaths were so high.

    I don’t know one person who had covid. We’re old and all our friends and many relatives are old. Hundreds of tenants, clients and employees, no covid. Big extended family, no covid no one in this big family knows anyone who had covid

    No one. I know knows anyone who had covid.

    Replies: @Hhsiii

  3. Yet the valleys of the viruses peaks remain well above baseline. Lockdowns kill.

  4. It would be good to go back many more years for perspective. Also, how many of those excess deaths are due to lockdown? And will there be below average deaths in the period following the epidemic, because of the most vulnerable dying a little sooner than otherwise?

    • Agree: Redman, ziggurat
    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Luke Lea

    We'll see in a couple of years if there's not a deeper and wider valley afterwards. Of course, it's hard to account for all the additional deaths due to non-diagnosed or non-treated illness of people who were told to stay away from the hospitals due to their becoming overwhelmed. We had one big section (that used to be a separate hospital company) closed down for months, and I saw a hospital parking lot in another city last week with the parking lot more than 1/2 empty.

    Oh, and nice job again, Ben Kenobi! Thanks for that one.

    , @Hypnotoad666
    @Luke Lea

    What the hell happened in January 2018? That month had more deaths than any month this entire year except April.

    Replies: @Billy Shears

    , @JR Ewing
    @Luke Lea

    Keep in mind as well that 2019 was a mild flu year and there were NO excess deaths following the peak at the beginning of 2018. So for 24 months we were below the baseline.

    This means that not only should we be looking for "pull ahead deaths", we should also recognize that 2020 has had some "borrowed time" deaths of people who hung on longer than they would have otherwise until the the 'rona got them. Yes CV19 has been bad, but influenza in 2018 was more benign than usual. Both of those factors contributed to the 2020 observations.

    And the lower number in 2019 is what caused the 2020 baseline to be lower. Rather than try to catch up, it appears the model inadvertently averaged down.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief, @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    , @stillCARealist
    @Luke Lea

    I know nobody who has died of this virus, and only one who had long-term complications. For everyone else the reality is a somewhere between a mild cold and a bad flu.

    However, I do know many people who have died this year of non-Covid deaths, from cancer to heart problems, to old age, and even an unborn baby (sob). There's been more memorials this year than I've ever seen in my middle age and there's still more of December to get through, ack. Two friends are in the hospital right now, one with a bum heart, and the other is on a suicide watch (Thanks lockdown for ruining her career and life!).

    So my conclusion is this is a big death year. virus or not, there were going to be more deaths for a ton of reasons that we'll only comprehend with careful study in the years ahead. Ain't none of us getting out of this alive.

  5. The leading scholar on the Influenza Pandemic of 1918, Alfred Crosby (America’s Forgotten Pandemic), used a simple methodology to accurately estimate pandemic deaths. He subtracted the total USA deaths in 1917 from the total USA deaths in 1918, and came up with 600,000 excess deaths in 1918 in a population of about 100 million. So total 2020 deaths less total 2019 deaths should result in a good estimate of the number of deaths attributable to the wu-wu virus in 2020. It is interesting to note that the Great Influenza of 1918 according to the author, Barry, probably started in Haskell County, Kansas, and was spread around the world knowingly by Woodie Wilson’s war effort, ultimately killing at least 50 million. US propagandists at the time called it the Spanish Flu to deflect blame. History can be quite malleable. Wiki has recently been edited to claim the 1918 pandemic originated in…..you guessed it……..everyone’s favorite whipping boy…..China.

    • Replies: @Gordo
    @nsa

    The 1918 flu was sequenced as coming from China spread by Chinese labour battalions working behind the Western Front.

  6. Not corona again! Steve, you don’t seem to be able to talk about that subject without going full retard.

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
  7. Steve,

    This is beneath you, and, frankly, saddening. Only the tin-hat crowd ever claimed the Covid-19 wasn’t real.

    Yes, Steve, Covid-19 is real. You got us.

    Okay, back to adult world, which, inexplicably, you seem to have abandoned on this subject. The question with Covid was never “Is it real?” but was “How bad is it, and what is the cost/benefit of various measures to slow its spread?”

    Covid appears to be on track to accelerating (not generally causing) the deaths of an additional ~320k Americans (funny how that term no longer means much to me), i.e. 0.1% of the population. That’s no joke, but it’s not the Black Death either.

    But the question was always (and remains) how many people would have died (actually, had their death accelerated) if we had simply warned vulnerable groups to be careful and let the virus spread quickly among the healthy population vs how many people would have died (sorry, had their deaths accelerated) if we had massive shutdowns?

    In addition, we would consider the negative externalities of a shutdown, such as businesses being destroyed, increased suicides, increased substance abuse, kids not learning because they’re not in school, increased domestic abuse, etc.

    Then, we would weigh to the expected number of additional accelerated deaths (admittedly, a guess) vs all of those negative consequences (again, a guess). Because, you know, that’s what serious adults do. We make hard choices based on the facts available.

    Instead, we had Harpies (and some internet pundits) throwing logic and facts out the window and demanding the world shut down for an admittedly very, very nasty flu-like virus because, well, because they didn’t like it.

    Steve, wake up! Instead of showing a graph pretty much all of us have seen, why don’t you analyze the numbers. This post is marginally – and just marginally – above the Today Show ladies clutching their pearls about the rising case count. Jesus, it’s embarrassing.

    You’re one of the best columnists of the past 30 years, a person who’s writings hopefully will be read by (White) generations to come. Don’t let it end this way.

    • Replies: @Kaz
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Deaths aren't the only thing.

    Hospital systems are overwhelmed. This is with a 'soft' lockdown.

    The people who don't die can face debilitating effects, no understanding of long term effects.

    Lots of things to consider aside from simple deaths. It's just the easiest thing to measure.

    Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country, @RichardTaylor, @Mr. Anon, @epebble, @Bill Jones, @JR Ewing

    , @vhrm
    @Citizen of a Silly Country


    But the question was always (and remains) how many people would have died (actually, had their death accelerated) if we had simply warned vulnerable groups to be careful and let the virus spread quickly among the healthy population vs how many people would have died (sorry, had their deaths accelerated) if we had massive shutdowns?
     
    AFAIK it's entirely unknown. One somewhat surprising (to me) thing is that the lockdowns don't appear to have had much effect on the spread of the virus at all. Like i have yet to see a graph where you can see a lockdown start and then 5-10 days later there's a significant downturn in new cases. So far i haven't seen one. I'd be curious to see a study that shows what impact various measures have had, but haven't seen one of those either.

    This article concurs on the shutdowns:
    https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/10/stats-hold-a-surprise-lockdowns-may-have-had-little-effect-on-covid-19-spread/

    Also worth noting that (based on the is Aug article about a paper by some economists) only 12% of the decrease in mobility to retail businesses in the US was caused by government action. The rest was consumer choice, but that 60% of the job losses were driven by government action (basically because restaurants were really hard hit by government shutdowns).

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-lockdowns-economy-pandemic-recession-business-shutdown-sweden-coronavirus-11598281419
    That article is a really good review how untested and seat of the pants these tactics have been.

    Judging by the effects so far, at least in the US, the effects on contagion have been minimal.

    That said, i think Steve's post is a good review because in some recent threads this week some of the skeptics really have forgotten that there are excess deaths.

    Replies: @utu, @Jack D

    , @Old Prude
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    How can this be when we are all diapered up all the time? Diaper harder, everyone! Diaper harder!

    , @Anon
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Assuming your 320k holds it's 0.001% of the population (320,000/330,000,000). 80% of deaths were 64 or older. Not the plague confirmed.

    , @OutsideMan
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Given everything you have just outlined, do you think the folks in charge of making this risk/benefit analysis had as their goal the reduction of mortality and economic harm? Because it sure looks like they maximized both. Incompetent or deliberate is the real question.

    , @Anon87
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    I tend to agree with you, but perhaps with Steve's earlier health issues in life that might justifiably make him a bit more nervous on the topic? But him dropping those sedentary induced lbs a bit ago was probably a good idea.

    And also, who do you ever agree with 100% of the time? For example Pat Buchanan usually is always on point, but I don't agree with his take on Hebdo cartoons. And that's ok. It's easy to skip Steve's covid related articles if you want, kind of like I do when he has a super detailed golf course architecture post. Sorry Steve!

    Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country, @Citizen of a Silly Country

  8. The pandemic has certainly caused excess deaths, many of them were the result of the lockdowns as suicides and drug deaths increased. This is to be expected when millions lose their jobs, businesses and social lives were destroyed. Increased stress and anxiety is bad for ones health.

    A whopping 12 million people have remained jobless since March, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The risk of depression, substance abuse, and suicide increases the longer one is unemployed. Researchers at the Well Being Trust estimated there could be 75,000 “deaths of despair” directly related to the pandemic. https://wellbeingtrust.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/WBT_Deaths-of-Despair_COVID-19-FINAL-FINAL.pdf

    A U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention survey found that U.S. adults reported substantially more symptoms of anxiety disorder and depressive disorder in June 2020 than in June 2019. Reported symptoms of stress and trauma, as well as thoughts about suicide, also rose this year. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6932a1.htm?s_cid=mm6932a1_w

    Another national survey conducted from March 31 through April found that 27.8 percent of the U.S. adult population reported depression symptoms, compared with 8.5 percent of U.S. adults surveyed in 2017 and 2018. These survey results appear in the September JAMA Network Open. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2770146

    Before the coronavirus even arrived, the U.S. was in the midst of the deadliest drug overdose epidemic in its history, with a record 71,000 overdose deaths last year. This year’s tally will surpass that, according to preliminary death data, we should expect about 75,000 drug deaths this year. The average death being under 40 years-old.

  9. Really, that graph doesn’t look scary at all. I’ve seen graphs showing comparisons of this excess death amounts to that in previous Oriental-bug epidemic years, going back through a big one in the late 1960s. Especially as compared to total population, and knowing that this doesn’t effect the young at all hardly, I don’t see a reason society should be expected to all comply together to new totalitarianism as if this were The Big One, dubya, dubya II.

    It’s not the Black Plague 2.0, or else that graph would go up farther than we could scroll. As for B.A.S.E. (Buildings, Antennas, Spans, Earth) jumping, if this LOCKDOWN and mandatory face-diapering shit goes on much longer there may be a lot of new BASE jumpers who’ve never skydived before in their lives.

    • Agree: RichardTaylor, Alden, Catdog
    • Replies: @HA
    @Achmed E. Newman

    "Really, that graph doesn’t look scary at all."

    So what? The graph is of those we DIDN'T save. The fact that locking down and distancing and masking managed to keep the death rates at what you claim is a "not scary at all" level is just, if anything, a high-five for those who mandated all those restrictions.

    In other words, if you were trying to shoot yourself in the foot, that was pretty good aim.

    The scarier graph is the one that showing how many WOULD have died with let-'er-rip. If you want to pretend that's not in the 7 figures (which would have been a lot easier to argue before the number we didn't save got as high as it did) then go and show it. As it is, the fact that the first peak -- the one that happened before the lockdowns really got underway -- is the scariest one is going to make that effort all the more difficult.

    Likewise, arguing over whether those those we didn't save from COVID is larger than those who died because of what was done to prevent that 7-figure death toll is not going to help you, either. Neither is trying to compare the ones we didn't save from COVID to the let-'er-rip deaths from the Hong Kong flu. Apples and oranges.

    The fact that you keep mixing these numbers up makes your argument all the more pathetic. But again, if that's what you were trying to do, then just keep on doing it.

    Replies: @anonymous coward, @Catdog, @Achmed E. Newman

  10. @Luke Lea
    It would be good to go back many more years for perspective. Also, how many of those excess deaths are due to lockdown? And will there be below average deaths in the period following the epidemic, because of the most vulnerable dying a little sooner than otherwise?

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Hypnotoad666, @JR Ewing, @stillCARealist

    We’ll see in a couple of years if there’s not a deeper and wider valley afterwards. Of course, it’s hard to account for all the additional deaths due to non-diagnosed or non-treated illness of people who were told to stay away from the hospitals due to their becoming overwhelmed. We had one big section (that used to be a separate hospital company) closed down for months, and I saw a hospital parking lot in another city last week with the parking lot more than 1/2 empty.

    Oh, and nice job again, Ben Kenobi! Thanks for that one.

    • Thanks: BenKenobi
  11. It’s nice to have an adult in the room.

    • Replies: @Anoymouse
    @obwandiyag

    Who would that be?

    , @Mike Tre
    @obwandiyag

    To make sure you don’t start eating the crayons again?

    Steve, look at who’s on your side in this issue: Newsom, Pritzker, Cuomo, Corvinus, and obwhineybag. That alone should give you pause.

    Replies: @HA

    , @Desiderius
    @obwandiyag

    We’re all adults here.

    Imagining oneself to have cornered that particular market is a decidedly adolescent affectation.

    Replies: @Jack D

  12. Is there any information on the demographic profile and cause of death of the “excess death” group? While acknowledging the reality of Covid, it clearly isn’t as much of a risk for healthy under 65 year-olds as it is for 80 year-olds with pre-existing conditions. Has the panic of the response been worth stunting the education of the younger population and destroying the local economy?

    • Replies: @JimDandy
    @tertius

    How much has locking the elderly down, inhibiting their exercise, exposure to the sun, social activities, and interactions with their loved ones hastened their deaths?

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    , @Citizen of a Silly Country
    @tertius

    Think of how many people we could save each year if we reduced the speed limit to 45 mph. Better yet, just eliminate interstate highways.

    Can't Steve think of the children!

  13. Since so many of the deaths are in people over 75, it is almost inevitable that at some point we will see a trough of less-than-normal numbers of deaths that represent when all these people would actually have died. It may not be for a couple years.

    The death rate in the winter of 2018-2019 was well below average so some of the 2020 deaths probably represent catch-up.

    The mortality rate for being human is 100%. It’s just a matter of when.

  14. @Citizen of a Silly Country
    Steve,

    This is beneath you, and, frankly, saddening. Only the tin-hat crowd ever claimed the Covid-19 wasn't real.

    Yes, Steve, Covid-19 is real. You got us.

    Okay, back to adult world, which, inexplicably, you seem to have abandoned on this subject. The question with Covid was never "Is it real?" but was "How bad is it, and what is the cost/benefit of various measures to slow its spread?"

    Covid appears to be on track to accelerating (not generally causing) the deaths of an additional ~320k Americans (funny how that term no longer means much to me), i.e. 0.1% of the population. That's no joke, but it's not the Black Death either.

    But the question was always (and remains) how many people would have died (actually, had their death accelerated) if we had simply warned vulnerable groups to be careful and let the virus spread quickly among the healthy population vs how many people would have died (sorry, had their deaths accelerated) if we had massive shutdowns?

    In addition, we would consider the negative externalities of a shutdown, such as businesses being destroyed, increased suicides, increased substance abuse, kids not learning because they're not in school, increased domestic abuse, etc.

    Then, we would weigh to the expected number of additional accelerated deaths (admittedly, a guess) vs all of those negative consequences (again, a guess). Because, you know, that's what serious adults do. We make hard choices based on the facts available.

    Instead, we had Harpies (and some internet pundits) throwing logic and facts out the window and demanding the world shut down for an admittedly very, very nasty flu-like virus because, well, because they didn't like it.

    Steve, wake up! Instead of showing a graph pretty much all of us have seen, why don't you analyze the numbers. This post is marginally - and just marginally - above the Today Show ladies clutching their pearls about the rising case count. Jesus, it's embarrassing.

    You're one of the best columnists of the past 30 years, a person who's writings hopefully will be read by (White) generations to come. Don't let it end this way.

    Replies: @Kaz, @vhrm, @Old Prude, @Anon, @OutsideMan, @Anon87

    Deaths aren’t the only thing.

    Hospital systems are overwhelmed. This is with a ‘soft’ lockdown.

    The people who don’t die can face debilitating effects, no understanding of long term effects.

    Lots of things to consider aside from simple deaths. It’s just the easiest thing to measure.

    • Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country
    @Kaz

    You seem to be missing my point.

    Yes, there may be additional complications with some portion of people who get Covid, just as there are with the flu.

    But the societal question was and remains how many people do we think we prevent from getting Covid from various measures vs the cost of those measures.

    I'm sorry bad things happen, but adults weigh the costs and benefits of preventive measures. We could prevent 100% of highway deaths by just shutting down highways, but we've decided that the benefits of such a measure aren't worth the costs.

    Why Steve and you feel a highway death of a child isn't worth as much as an elderly Covid death is beyond me.

    Replies: @DoniaBrava, @Anon

    , @RichardTaylor
    @Kaz

    Every doctor tells me there is no "run on the hospitals", except those few places we kept getting images from. This was true 6 months ago. Most hospitals were ghost towns.

    Elderly people didn't go for procedures they needed. Lots of suffering as a result. Professionals in the field (in private) say the lockdown has been silly. But, they say it in hushed tones now due to the New Authoritarianism that's been established.

    , @Mr. Anon
    @Kaz


    Hospital systems are overwhelmed.
     
    No, they aren't.
    , @epebble
    @Kaz

    15 million people have been infected and when it is all over, may be upwards of 30 million would have been infected. If even a few millions of these become long haulers, that will have a major impact on the socio-economics of the country - like PTSD or Polio survivors.

    https://health.ucdavis.edu/coronavirus/covid-19-information/covid-19-long-haulers.html

    https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/the-tragedy-of-the-post-covid-long-haulers-2020101521173

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    , @Bill Jones
    @Kaz


    Hospital systems are overwhelmed. This is with a ‘soft’ lockdown.
     
    This is a lie
    Dept of Health and Human Services numbers
    Number Percentage (%)
    Inpatient Beds Occupied (All Patients) 537,196 75.39
    Inpatient Beds Occupied (COVID-19 Patients) 105,570 14.82
    ICU Beds Occupied (All Patients) 67,665 63.57

    Unz removes formatting. But you can get your very own copy here.
    https://protect-public.hhs.gov/pages/hospital-capacity

    I found it via
    https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/its-panic-porn-clickbait-media-scare-stories-about-hospitals-are-misleading

    The line about the NYT lies is hardly surprising.

    Hospitals are in the business of filling beds not keeping them empty. Those numbers are low.

    , @JR Ewing
    @Kaz

    Every virus has potential long term complications.

    This is yet another way of saying, "I don't want to admit I was hysterical about a flu bug, so I'm going to pretend that it was worse than it really is."

    All the BS about "asymptomatic spread" is in the same vein, except that's something that was invented (rather than was exaggerated) in order to make covid appear worse than it really is and justify the continued panic.

    Humans have been dealing with respiratory viruses since the start of history. There is nothing unique about the one we found in 2020.

    Replies: @LondonBob

  15. These guys, as usual, were way ahead of their time:

    • Replies: @Mike Tre
    @Reg Cæsar

    Yep, obese negro females have culturally appropriated the subtle art of wearing a dirty mask pulled down below their noses.

    Replies: @vhrm

    , @Wielgus
    @Reg Cæsar

    The guy in the background is probably thinking, "What strange behaviour." If he is still alive (and he looks 30-ish so would perhaps be in his 90s now) he may well be wearing a mask himself.

    , @Hail Caesar
    @Reg Cæsar

    They arrived in the USA within months of JFK's assassination, with a guy named Epstein. That might be him.

  16. Killing ourselves to live

  17. @obwandiyag
    It's nice to have an adult in the room.

    Replies: @Anoymouse, @Mike Tre, @Desiderius

    Who would that be?

  18. Be interesting to break up excess deaths by age bands.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Larry, San Francisco

    The CDC has a set of graphs for that.

    Replies: @Alice in Wonderland

    , @Anon
    @Larry, San Francisco

    Here are the current numbers as of December 9t when the CDC updated their database.

    All ages: 255,257
    Over 65: 203,981 79%
    Under 44: 7,041 2%
    Under 34: 2,238 0%
    Under 24: 403 0%

  19. So Excess Deaths would include all the bonus, altruistic/for-great-justice suicides, yes? And then the people who offed themselves after losing their businesses?

    And from the terminal inconvenience of having your non-essential surgery or treatment deferred in order that Real Heroes In Scrubs could better mentally prepare themselves for righteous battle against the dread COVID wendigo, correct?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Anonymous

    Yes. And yet the biggest spike in Excess Deaths was the first, which peaked in the second week of April, only three weeks into serious shutdowns.

  20. And December is likely to be pretty bad when finally counted up sometime in February.

    Yep. Many of the writers (and perhaps most of the commenters) on this website seem to have a very different view of the dangers of Covid-19 than Steve or myself. Given over-counting and under-counting problems, for months I’ve been emphasizing that “excess deaths” were the most reliable metric to evaluate the true impact of the epidemic.

    Since October I’d also predicted that such total fatalities might approach 500K by the end of the year. Offhand, it looks like we easily broke 350K by the end of November, and given the terrible numbers so far in December, my projection might not be too far off.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @Ron Unz

    I am in agreement with both Steve and Ron. I find myself with a different point of view to a lot of the commentariat.

    It seems that the individualism/atomism of the US combined with the hamfisted initial response has made it a situation where the US will bumble through until a vaccine is rolled out as there is no alternative. Australia, New Zealand and China have shown that yes, you can eliminate the virus and deal with outbreaks locally. A key is to contain and limit the travel so that the measures felt are localized.

    If there was another epidemic of greater severity and similar infectivity, the USA would be in a real pickle. If nothing else, this was a useful drill for such an event. The countries I mentioned and others have shown they have the toolkit to deal with even a virus as infectious as COVID, without waiting for a vaccine. In fact, most would be shutting the international borders far earlier than we have in future, completely avoiding the problem, or dealing with the small outbreaks. The key is to act early. Some short term pain is endured but then life goes on!

    It is notable that the Swedish model has failed and it's not for the Swedes lack of trying it. They have ended their experiment.

    Somehow, COVID has gotten politicized and it seems I am at odds with most republican types unfortunately. There is still much common ground, no need to get nasty or rude with our hosts. You might also realize that they are older gentlemen who have a non-trivial risk of death with COVID. I would prefer both stick around as long as possible.

    Replies: @utu, @Federalist, @RadicalCenter, @Polynikes

    , @Dutch Boy
    @Ron Unz

    There is a justifiable skepticism about government data and recommendations, since the relevant agency (the CDC) is a creature of the pharmaceutical industry and you are all too aware of the nature of that beast.

    , @BobX
    @Ron Unz

    So does this mean you are open to an annual US border shutdown drill? I suggest we take a week in December each year to practice pandemic border shutdown preparedness. Every 5th or 10th year perhaps we should extend it for the whole month.

    A US with actual control of it border, what a strange world that would be.

    Given my health history I am with Steve & Ron on personal reaction to Wuflu I have no desire to have my inevitable death "accelerated" as one of the other posters so callously put it.

    , @AnotherDad
    @Ron Unz

    Striking thing here:

    The Diamond Princess gave us the first complete/closed data set, we've had and a really good box on the severity of this thing.
    -- not "just the flu"
    -- 10--50x normal flu
    -- likely 0.2-0.7 IFR for American aged demographic profile
    -- probably would kill 1-1.5 million Americans if every single person was exposed
    -- but probably 600k-1m and you'd start wobbling toward "herd immunity"; everyone would else would eventually get exposed but over the next decade as with the flu antigen shifts
    -- most critically, a geezer killer; quality of life years lost are small

    As i've noted, i was really worried about this back in January, AnotherMom and I kicked around tossing a foreign trip we had booked for the family. But once the Diamond Princess came back, i was relieved. My kids--future generations growing up--were gong to be fine. Unpleasant, but no threat to civilization, simply a lot of people--almost all old and/or ill health--were going to die a bit early. Some who would have gone in the last couple low-flu years, most borrowed from the next five years' or so deaths.

    Nothing has changed that picture. Confess i didn't expect the summer wave. I thought the first wave would die out with summer--end of flu season--then would get going big again in fall with traditional flu season. AnotherMom thinks summer AC--people more indoors--in the South had something to do with it. Mostly south--people less indoors--didn't get hit as hard in first wave.

    But other than that, anyone could write a road map out of the Diamond Princess data and we've more or less driven right on down it.

    But ... doesn't matter. All sorts of nonsense from the "just the flu bros" whining about wearing a mask to the store (BFD), to the hysterics screaming about the apocalypse, pushing lockdowns (and wanting to kill Swedes for their heresy). We're going to lose way more years of life in unconceived, unborn children than the Xi virus will take.

    One thing i have 100% confidence in: The Xi virus isn't what's killing America.

    America is being killed by minoritarianism. By mass immigration and by low/dysgenic fertility. Xi virus is a speed bump.

    Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome

    , @Hippopotamusdrome
    @Ron Unz

    I believe the death stastistics like I believe the Biden vote stastistics. Wouldn't they have thought of the total death numbers in their scam?

  21. Rather than repeating the excellent comments above and in previous threads, I will come right out with it.

    WTF if wrong with you Steve? You are, for perhaps the first time in the 20 years I’ve been reading your screeds, in full agreement with your trolls and on the verge of being mocked by your most loyal fans.

    My suspicion is that you harbor some intense personal fear that you are unable to subsume in objectivity. I doubt it is your cancer history because I would rather have my cancer back, see remission vanish, and deal with metastasis than see the bullshit viral panic festival for milquetoast jacobins continue. Is it your parents? Spouse or kids? We can all forgive you cowering and trembling in terror, soaked in your own urine, shrieking “the virus is falling!” if the neurosis is rooted in something like that.

    • Agree: Marco de Wit, Polynikes
    • Disagree: Sam Malone, AnotherDad
    • Replies: @John Achterhof
    @Stan d Mute

    The impression I get, looking over this commentariat revolt to Sailer's presentation of factual information, is that while Steve is an independent thinker those drawn to his thought on taboo subjects are overwhelmingly anti-establishment, contrarian thinkers. If the powers-that-be had been determined at the outset of this pandemic to prioritize economic well-being over public health in lockdowns and mandates I suspect that those same commentators now braying against the course of action taken would be braying about the indifference to public health (death, long and shorter term sickness) in their prioritizing of tax-revenue-generating economic function.

    I was unsure at the outset about the call to shut down indefinitely so much economic and social activity - which has taken a great toll - in the unsure prospect of developing soon a vaccine, or at least effective treatment. But it turns out the drug companies have come through in flying colors, and while the US has floundered in its effort to quash the virus, the example of New Zealand shows just how effective social suppression/eradication efforts can be with competent, widely respected leadership and social solidarity. Indeed, an assortment of approaches have been deployed by different countries. What country can you point to as a model of sensibility according to your view of the seriousness of the virus? Sweden?

    Maybe, Stan, you and your reflexively contrarian fellows should just pass by informative posts such as this that upset your contratianism and just lap up the lower-nutrient stuff, such as some of the other posts offered today, that is more the common fare.

    Replies: @Anonymous Jew

    , @Sam Malone
    @Stan d Mute

    Uncalled for, man. I'm skeptical of the cost of the lockdowns too and can't help feeling a little contemptuous of all the unctuous sermonizing on the dangers of letting human life going on as normal, but insulting Steve so vituperatively and personally simply for leaning the other way - particularly after the all the years of outstanding insight and commentary he's given us - is totally necessary and doesn't reflect well on you or your mindset. Just dial it down a little, Steve's our guy.

    , @Servant of Gla'aki
    @Stan d Mute


    WTF if wrong with you Steve? You are, for perhaps the first time in the 20 years I’ve been reading your screeds, in full agreement with your trolls and on the verge of being mocked by your most loyal fans.
     
    It's just a graph, bro. It's just raw data. I must've missed the part where Steve endorsed continuing Universal House Arrest.
  22. What’s the graph of baby-boomer age in relation? What number are reaching 78 (average age of death in the US) and how did that change from 2017/18/19? The leading edge of the boomer generation must be hitting that target now and the average number of deaths are going to go up every year until we reach the boomer peak.

    • Replies: @Travis
    @Louis Renault

    good point...the number of yearly deaths in the United States climbed significantly since 2010 when boomers started turning 65. Now they are turning 75 and we see another increase in deaths because so many boomers are getting older.

    Year - US deaths
    2000 - 2,403,351
    2005 - 2,448,017
    2010 - 2,418,435
    2015 - 2,712,630
    2018 - 2,839,205
    2020- 2,991,000

    why did deaths jump 300,000 in 2015 from 2010 ?
    looks similar to the increase in deaths when we compare 2015 to 2020

    with the dramatic reduction of smoking and better healthcare , why did so many more Americans die in 2015 compared to 2010 ? Did anyone investigate this ? More significant for the future of America is the dramatic drop in White births. From 3 million white births per year in the 1960's to under 2 million white births per year since 2015

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    , @Mark G.
    @Louis Renault


    What’s the graph of baby-boomer age in relation? What number are reaching 78 (average age of death in the US) and how did that change from 2017/18/19? The leading edge of the boomer generation must be hitting that target now and the average number of deaths are going to go up every year until we reach the boomer peak.
     
    The oldest Boomers are now in their seventies. Boomers haven't led a particularly healthy lifestyle, with excessive drug and alcohol use in their youth and higher levels of obesity than previous generations as they got older. Close to 90% of Covid deaths have involved people who were overweight or obese. Boomers may end up being the first generation of Americans to live less long than their parents.

    Some commenters have expressed an interest in charts over a longer time period. Journalist Alex Berenson, who has been covering Covid, recently said U.S. deaths went up slowly from 2000 to 2008 but then there was a big jump by about three hundred thousand a year from 2009 to the present. Most likely this change happened because of the 2008 economic crash. The following recession seems to have hit a lot of people, especially the working class, really hard. Substance abuse increased and the opioid crisis really took off during this time period. Many people also no longer had enough money to purchase items needed for good health such as healthy food, medical care, a house in a safe neighborhood and so on. The extensive lockdowns this year have disproportionately hit this same working class and made an already bad situation for them even worse. This has probably helped to further increase deaths and also add additional deaths in the future as the economic after effects of the lockdowns and bailouts continue.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  23. @tertius
    Is there any information on the demographic profile and cause of death of the "excess death" group? While acknowledging the reality of Covid, it clearly isn't as much of a risk for healthy under 65 year-olds as it is for 80 year-olds with pre-existing conditions. Has the panic of the response been worth stunting the education of the younger population and destroying the local economy?

    Replies: @JimDandy, @Citizen of a Silly Country

    How much has locking the elderly down, inhibiting their exercise, exposure to the sun, social activities, and interactions with their loved ones hastened their deaths?

    • Agree: Marco de Wit
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @JimDandy

    Keeping them from getting that lump checked out, etc.

    Probably the long-run toll will be high. On the other hand, the first hump in All Causes death was spectacularly steep, and it's unlikely that the long run had set in by the week ending April 11, when national deaths (all causes) were 41% above the expected level. In New York City that week, deaths were running at 600+% of normal.

    Replies: @JimDandy, @Redman

  24. @Kaz
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Deaths aren't the only thing.

    Hospital systems are overwhelmed. This is with a 'soft' lockdown.

    The people who don't die can face debilitating effects, no understanding of long term effects.

    Lots of things to consider aside from simple deaths. It's just the easiest thing to measure.

    Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country, @RichardTaylor, @Mr. Anon, @epebble, @Bill Jones, @JR Ewing

    You seem to be missing my point.

    Yes, there may be additional complications with some portion of people who get Covid, just as there are with the flu.

    But the societal question was and remains how many people do we think we prevent from getting Covid from various measures vs the cost of those measures.

    I’m sorry bad things happen, but adults weigh the costs and benefits of preventive measures. We could prevent 100% of highway deaths by just shutting down highways, but we’ve decided that the benefits of such a measure aren’t worth the costs.

    Why Steve and you feel a highway death of a child isn’t worth as much as an elderly Covid death is beyond me.

    • Replies: @DoniaBrava
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Because they are boomers! Boomers are terrified of their own mortality and they lose their critical thinking skills when somebody scares them with a vi-hi-hi-rus.

    I am bitterly disappointed in Steve’s take on this covid nonsense. Whoever set this up must have run remarkable preparatory simulations to achieve this level of collective boomer amygdala hijacking.
    Sad.

    , @Anon
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    In light of Chuck Yeager's death, I've been pondering what COVID response would best indicate The Right Stuff.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

  25. @tertius
    Is there any information on the demographic profile and cause of death of the "excess death" group? While acknowledging the reality of Covid, it clearly isn't as much of a risk for healthy under 65 year-olds as it is for 80 year-olds with pre-existing conditions. Has the panic of the response been worth stunting the education of the younger population and destroying the local economy?

    Replies: @JimDandy, @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Think of how many people we could save each year if we reduced the speed limit to 45 mph. Better yet, just eliminate interstate highways.

    Can’t Steve think of the children!

    • Agree: Marco de Wit
  26. @JimDandy
    @tertius

    How much has locking the elderly down, inhibiting their exercise, exposure to the sun, social activities, and interactions with their loved ones hastened their deaths?

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    Keeping them from getting that lump checked out, etc.

    Probably the long-run toll will be high. On the other hand, the first hump in All Causes death was spectacularly steep, and it’s unlikely that the long run had set in by the week ending April 11, when national deaths (all causes) were 41% above the expected level. In New York City that week, deaths were running at 600+% of normal.

    • Replies: @JimDandy
    @Steve Sailer

    Yeah, that first bump in New York was startling. A few years ago, when the flu killed, what, 80,000 Americans, was there a dramatic spike of excess deaths?

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    , @Redman
    @Steve Sailer

    The first hump is also when iatrogenic deaths (typically, the third highest cause of death nationally) were likely at their peak. Back when ventilators were being used ubiquitously here in NYC.

    Is it possible to determine how many people would have survived but for the use of ventilators? Probably not. But ventilators sure went from being a prized commodity to a dirty word in about 6 weeks.

  27. @Anonymous
    So Excess Deaths would include all the bonus, altruistic/for-great-justice suicides, yes? And then the people who offed themselves after losing their businesses?

    And from the terminal inconvenience of having your non-essential surgery or treatment deferred in order that Real Heroes In Scrubs could better mentally prepare themselves for righteous battle against the dread COVID wendigo, correct?

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    Yes. And yet the biggest spike in Excess Deaths was the first, which peaked in the second week of April, only three weeks into serious shutdowns.

  28. @Larry, San Francisco
    Be interesting to break up excess deaths by age bands.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Anon

    The CDC has a set of graphs for that.

    • Replies: @Alice in Wonderland
    @Steve Sailer

    CDC graphs by age and race.

    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm#F1_down

    they state that the baseline is the average of 2015-2019.

    Obviously the baseline should be the 2019 plus some small % increase. So, excess deaths are certainly overstated, but how much? maybe 5-10% ?

    Whites show smallest % increase. reason?

  29. @Kaz
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Deaths aren't the only thing.

    Hospital systems are overwhelmed. This is with a 'soft' lockdown.

    The people who don't die can face debilitating effects, no understanding of long term effects.

    Lots of things to consider aside from simple deaths. It's just the easiest thing to measure.

    Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country, @RichardTaylor, @Mr. Anon, @epebble, @Bill Jones, @JR Ewing

    Every doctor tells me there is no “run on the hospitals”, except those few places we kept getting images from. This was true 6 months ago. Most hospitals were ghost towns.

    Elderly people didn’t go for procedures they needed. Lots of suffering as a result. Professionals in the field (in private) say the lockdown has been silly. But, they say it in hushed tones now due to the New Authoritarianism that’s been established.

    • Agree: Marco de Wit
  30. Again with the Covid?

  31. @Citizen of a Silly Country
    @Kaz

    You seem to be missing my point.

    Yes, there may be additional complications with some portion of people who get Covid, just as there are with the flu.

    But the societal question was and remains how many people do we think we prevent from getting Covid from various measures vs the cost of those measures.

    I'm sorry bad things happen, but adults weigh the costs and benefits of preventive measures. We could prevent 100% of highway deaths by just shutting down highways, but we've decided that the benefits of such a measure aren't worth the costs.

    Why Steve and you feel a highway death of a child isn't worth as much as an elderly Covid death is beyond me.

    Replies: @DoniaBrava, @Anon

    Because they are boomers! Boomers are terrified of their own mortality and they lose their critical thinking skills when somebody scares them with a vi-hi-hi-rus.

    I am bitterly disappointed in Steve’s take on this covid nonsense. Whoever set this up must have run remarkable preparatory simulations to achieve this level of collective boomer amygdala hijacking.
    Sad.

    • Agree: Marco de Wit
  32. @Steve Sailer
    @JimDandy

    Keeping them from getting that lump checked out, etc.

    Probably the long-run toll will be high. On the other hand, the first hump in All Causes death was spectacularly steep, and it's unlikely that the long run had set in by the week ending April 11, when national deaths (all causes) were 41% above the expected level. In New York City that week, deaths were running at 600+% of normal.

    Replies: @JimDandy, @Redman

    Yeah, that first bump in New York was startling. A few years ago, when the flu killed, what, 80,000 Americans, was there a dramatic spike of excess deaths?

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @JimDandy


    Yeah, that first bump in New York was startling. A few years ago, when the flu killed, what, 80,000 Americans, was there a dramatic spike of excess deaths?
     
    Who needs the Flu when you've got Andrew "The Grim Reaper" Cuomo?
  33. The fear with covid 19 was that it was going to be like the flu. It’s here forever, it doesn’t confer long lasting immunity, and there are a wave of die offs every year. Once the virus got out into the wild, the toothpaste was out of the tube. That was the worst cast scenario. I’m not an epidemiologist and I have no access to any data. One of you geniuses should enlighten me, how many people who have had Covid 19 have been re infected, and on average how long does the immunity last, if any? Adjacently how long does the immunity from the vaccine last? Those are the only important questions. The lockdowns and holding kids out of school were always asinine. The burden of proof is on you to prove that shutting down my work for 6 weeks and holding kids out of school accomplished anything. Of course there are a lot of excess deaths. Look at how many excess flu deaths there were in 2018, a there’s a vaccine for that. And guess what, not everyone is going to take the COVID-19 vaccine either, so there will probably always be a bunch of excess deaths from it every winter… unless of course this is like Sars 1 and it confers a fairly long lasting immunity. I don’t think that possibility has been disproven. In that case the virus will probably burn itself to an extent, but still always be around and dangerous. I was locked down for 6 weeks, That can’t happen again because if it did somebody would actually kidnap the governess and heads would roll. If I was over 30 I probably would be fearful of covid and that’s perfectly reasonable. If you’re afraid of covid there’s no reason for you to ever leave your house, you can order in food, and essential workers will keep the water running and the lights on. Of course there are excess deaths. That’s the conflict inherent to COVID-19 politics, it’s easy to frame it as Us versus Them. Are We willing to sacrifice Our quality of life years for Your quality of life years? Rational, self interested human beings should answer no to that question. Boomers still answer no to that question, and good for them. But Gen X and younger don’t seem to be rational nor self interested.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Kyle


    One of you geniuses should enlighten me, how many people who have had Covid 19 have been re infected, and on average how long does the immunity last, if any?
     
    When you factor in that our immune systems are wild and crazy, but mostly in a good way, effectively no one has been reinfected. Novel virus being novel, we only have evidence the immunity lasts as long as it's been out there in large numbers. Based on serological (blood) testing, it shows every sign of producing a life-long immunity, which may be the rule rather than an exception like the flu.

    The theory behind that is based on what our immune systems latch onto to provide long term immunity, is it "conserved," something that must stay more or less the same or "the virus won't virus," or is it like the flu, something that can change enough that previous immune system responses won't help (much) when it changes a lot? So the fact that fairly recent serological study of survivors of the 1918-9 flu pandemic still are ready to stop that particular strain doesn't help them (much) with significantly different H1N1 strains today, let alone the H3N2 from Asia in the late 1960.

    TL;DR: we have every reason to believe infections and vaccines that invoke the adaptive immune system will provide life long immunity, as I gather is true for every virus we vaccine against except for the flu.

    Extra credit: we have a couple of advantages with SARS-CoV-2 that means its less likely to mutate to something that's again novel, a unique among RNA viruses proofreading mechanism, and it's awfully well adapted to humans.

    Replies: @Anon

    , @Travis
    @Kyle

    The evidence is mounting that people can get re-infected with COVID. The antibodies quickly fade , as shown by all the antibody studies. Thankfully we also gain T-cell immunity which lasts longer, but may not prevent reinfection. Back in April over 30% of New Yorkers had the antibodies, this faded to 25% by June and 21% in September.

    The Pfizer study actually claims that the COVID infection rate was the same for those who already had COVID compared to those who had no previous coronavirus infection. "The placebo group attack rate from enrollment to the November 14, 2020, data cut-off date was 1.3% both for participants without evidence of prior infection at enrollment and for participants with evidence of prior infection at enrollment." While limited, these data do suggest that previously infected individuals can be at risk of COVID-19 (i.e., reinfection) From page 28 of the FDA briefing.

    Replies: @Redman

  34. First it was two weeks to flatten the curve and since then other restrictions, which according to this graph all failed. The area under the curve never changed, nor should anyone have expected that to occur without a vaccine. We’ve allowed irreparable harm on our society and economy for fancy notions.
    BTW, the graph you show indicates both actual and weighted (predicted) numbers. Their is another graph showing the difference (with/without weighting).

    • Replies: @mousey
    @mousey

    It’s actually worse than that. If you look at the chart with/without Covid, you’ll see that the other causes of death spiked during this same period. The lockdowns, isolation, hospital restrictions all led to a worse outcome than if we didn’t do anything at all.

  35. @Citizen of a Silly Country
    @Kaz

    You seem to be missing my point.

    Yes, there may be additional complications with some portion of people who get Covid, just as there are with the flu.

    But the societal question was and remains how many people do we think we prevent from getting Covid from various measures vs the cost of those measures.

    I'm sorry bad things happen, but adults weigh the costs and benefits of preventive measures. We could prevent 100% of highway deaths by just shutting down highways, but we've decided that the benefits of such a measure aren't worth the costs.

    Why Steve and you feel a highway death of a child isn't worth as much as an elderly Covid death is beyond me.

    Replies: @DoniaBrava, @Anon

    In light of Chuck Yeager’s death, I’ve been pondering what COVID response would best indicate The Right Stuff.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Anon

    Clearly, being terrified of getting a vaccine shot indicates heaping quantities of the Right Stuff.

    Replies: @the one they call Desanex, @Chrisnonymous, @SunBakedSuburb, @Federalist, @MB

  36. @Anon
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    In light of Chuck Yeager's death, I've been pondering what COVID response would best indicate The Right Stuff.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    Clearly, being terrified of getting a vaccine shot indicates heaping quantities of the Right Stuff.

    • Replies: @the one they call Desanex
    @Steve Sailer

    Steve “COWID-19” Sailer sez:

    “If you won’t take the shot, you’re a coward!”
    Black Pot was with Brillo-pad scoured;
    “I’m bright shiny metal,”
    Said Pot to friend Kettle,
    “You’re black!” Their relationship soured.

    Replies: @Dutch Boy

    , @Chrisnonymous
    @Steve Sailer

    Of course, machismo always suffers from survivorship bias fallacy. That's why black ghetto culture propagates itself.

    , @SunBakedSuburb
    @Steve Sailer

    "terrified"

    Best not to be terrified about anything. But to be wary of a vaccine produced for a new virus that likely began in a lab at Fort Dietrich is a rational response. During my military service I was given several inoculations for god knows what in the same day. I was knocked flat with a fever and was confined to my bunk in the squad bay for 48 hours, missing out on critical training. Like Gavin Newsom, I believe in Science and vaccines. My personal experience with the technocrat's nectar, however, has made me leery. I'm a 51 year old white man; last on the list to receive the COVID cure. So I won't be rolling up my sleeve anytime soon.

    , @Federalist
    @Steve Sailer


    Clearly, being terrified of getting a vaccine shot indicates heaping quantities of the Right Stuff.
     
    Says the guy who hides in a closet and wants everyone to wear a napkin on their face.
    , @MB
    @Steve Sailer

    Terrified or skeptical?
    There's a big difference.
    At least for some of us despicables shoehorned in between the jingoistic Deplorables and the Riden' with Biden crew.

    Not to be a complete contrarian, but big govt. and big pharma don't have the most encouraging track records. Anybody remember the '76 or '09 Swine flu vaccine fiascos? You gotta love the no liability riders for the vaccine makers because of the same.

    (Jon Rappaport says it's all bunk according to various studies. Historically deaths were falling before vaccines were implemented. IOW the post hoc propter hoc fallacy.)

    YMM definitely vary but having the military "deliver" the vaccine has all the earmarks, if not fine print ability to morph into another cattle drive/coerced lemmings clown show. Joey and the K would love to run with that setup. Why they might even be willing to waive the arrest and show trial of Donny in the new regime. No medals though.

  37. • Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist
    @Bernard

    The scenario in that story is cringe-worthy for all involved. The level of condescension/patronizing is grotesque.

  38. More kung flu pizz fear.

  39. A lot of people seem to be under the misperception that the pandemic isn’t causing excess deaths. Here’s a CDC graph showing weekly deaths in the United States from all causes going back to the beginning of 2017.

    What, all the way back to 2017? Who was President then? It was Warren Harding, wasn’t it?

    I’d like to see a comparable graph going back to 1950. That might put some of this in real perspective. It would encompass both the Asian Flu and Hong Kong Flu pandemics, neither of which precipitated a World-wide hair-on-fire, oh-my-God-we’re-all-gonna-die freakout like the Great Reset Corona Pandemic has done.

    I’ve looked for that data, but have not found it. And why is that? As you often say, Steve, death statistics are some of the most accurate social statistics there are. What the Hell good is the CDC if they don’t have, or can not make available, time-series data of vital statistics.

    Since it is pretty clear that a lot of those excess deaths are not due to COVID (based on the CDC’s own statistics), it begs the question……..what are they due to? Old people prematurely dying from loneliness? Stress-induced heart-attacks? Aggressive use of the Vent, even in cases where it was not warranted? How many of those deaths could have been prevented if the Anthony Fauci and the media had not demonized the HCL/Zinc cocktail for the sole reason that Bad Orange Man said a few nice things about it (well, that and because it wouldn’t make Gilead any money)?

  40. @JimDandy
    @Steve Sailer

    Yeah, that first bump in New York was startling. A few years ago, when the flu killed, what, 80,000 Americans, was there a dramatic spike of excess deaths?

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    Yeah, that first bump in New York was startling. A few years ago, when the flu killed, what, 80,000 Americans, was there a dramatic spike of excess deaths?

    Who needs the Flu when you’ve got Andrew “The Grim Reaper” Cuomo?

    • Agree: JimDandy
  41. @Kaz
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Deaths aren't the only thing.

    Hospital systems are overwhelmed. This is with a 'soft' lockdown.

    The people who don't die can face debilitating effects, no understanding of long term effects.

    Lots of things to consider aside from simple deaths. It's just the easiest thing to measure.

    Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country, @RichardTaylor, @Mr. Anon, @epebble, @Bill Jones, @JR Ewing

    Hospital systems are overwhelmed.

    No, they aren’t.

  42. we can only be horrified about what happened in this country in winter 2017-2018. That peak in mortality easily exceeds all peaks in the picture except the winter 2020 peak. That is for the height. The area under that broader peak is in fact quite similar or exceeding the covid-19 first peak.

    This is hardly just the USA. You repeat this analysis for Sweden data, which has excellent records, and you can see that in Sweden with no lockdowns 2020 was the fifth worst winter since 1988.

    So this the barbarous civilization we all come from. No lockdowns ever for severe die-offs, in Europe or the USA. Fortunately an intrepid band of governors, supported by our superbly unbiased press, is putting things to right. from now on, lockdowns for any peak in mortality will be supported and implemented.

    • Agree: vhrm
    • Replies: @HA
    @anonimo11

    "we can only be horrified about what happened in this country in winter 2017-2018... The area under that broader peak is in fact quite similar or exceeding the covid-19 first peak."

    If you're blind or crazy or both, then yeah. Otherwise, no.

    "You repeat this analysis for Sweden data, which has excellent records, and you can see that in Sweden with no lockdowns 2020 was the fifth worst winter since 1988."

    "No lockdowns"? As in people mostly being willing to isolate when sick because of the generous government funded sick-leave that paid them for doing so? And to avoid theatres and restaurants because they still trust their governmental health experts as opposed to sending them death threats?

    OK, fine, if you want a socialized medical system that does what Sweden does, then I guess that might work (though even in Sweden it worked badly for the not-like-Canada segment of the population, and it worked REALLY badly for the third-world immigrants taking care of the residents of nursing homes. Those were mostly shift-workers and those jobs don't get that cushy government-paid sick-leave, so if they get the sniffles and feel feverish, they just decide to power through as opposed to losing out on a shift regardless of how many grandmas die.)

    In other words, scratch that -- it actually wouldn't work at all in the vast not-like-Canada portions of the US that took the biggest COVID hits.

    Besides, given how much worse Sweden did than its neighbors, that was at best going to be an uphill battle.

    Replies: @anonimo11, @RichardTaylor

  43. Conclusion: It’s bad, but not apocalyptic. One’s view of the subject depends on whether you’re an old person who desperately wants a few more years of life, or a young person who desperately wants to have a life.

    I met a middle-aged nurse a year younger than me who got it last March. She was very sick for weeks, and still had tightness in her chest months later. So I won’t die of it, but lasting organ damage is a real possibility.

    • Replies: @anonymous coward
    @Dave


    So I won’t die of it, but lasting organ damage is a real possibility.
     
    That's bullshit. I had Covid, and I know dozens of people who had it. Nobody experienced anything out of the ordinary for a common respiratory viral infection.

    Yes, some people get severe autoimmune reactions to Covid, but those people are very rare, and if you're one of them you'll know immediately.

    Replies: @Jack D, @Dave

  44. Two problems with this graph:1) many of the deaths are caused by lockdowns, not the virus, and 2) the CDC average death baseline is too low for 2020, in other words, there are less “excess” deaths than indicated.

    • Replies: @Redman
    @MattinLA

    Agreed. And nobody seems to want to talk about #2. According to UN projections, the US is in the early part of a very sharp spike in the projected national death rate, which started on 2009. My guess is this has to do with our rapidly aging population (i.e. boomers).

    https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate

    But it does not appear the the CDC factors that into their chart of excess deaths. It appears they take an average of the last 4 years and assume that's what to predict for a baseline (i.e. normal).

  45. @mousey
    First it was two weeks to flatten the curve and since then other restrictions, which according to this graph all failed. The area under the curve never changed, nor should anyone have expected that to occur without a vaccine. We’ve allowed irreparable harm on our society and economy for fancy notions.
    BTW, the graph you show indicates both actual and weighted (predicted) numbers. Their is another graph showing the difference (with/without weighting).

    Replies: @mousey

    It’s actually worse than that. If you look at the chart with/without Covid, you’ll see that the other causes of death spiked during this same period. The lockdowns, isolation, hospital restrictions all led to a worse outcome than if we didn’t do anything at all.

    • Agree: Travis
  46. Anonymous[417] • Disclaimer says:
    @Ron Unz

    And December is likely to be pretty bad when finally counted up sometime in February.
     
    Yep. Many of the writers (and perhaps most of the commenters) on this website seem to have a very different view of the dangers of Covid-19 than Steve or myself. Given over-counting and under-counting problems, for months I've been emphasizing that "excess deaths" were the most reliable metric to evaluate the true impact of the epidemic.

    Since October I'd also predicted that such total fatalities might approach 500K by the end of the year. Offhand, it looks like we easily broke 350K by the end of November, and given the terrible numbers so far in December, my projection might not be too far off.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Dutch Boy, @BobX, @AnotherDad, @Hippopotamusdrome

    I am in agreement with both Steve and Ron. I find myself with a different point of view to a lot of the commentariat.

    It seems that the individualism/atomism of the US combined with the hamfisted initial response has made it a situation where the US will bumble through until a vaccine is rolled out as there is no alternative. Australia, New Zealand and China have shown that yes, you can eliminate the virus and deal with outbreaks locally. A key is to contain and limit the travel so that the measures felt are localized.

    If there was another epidemic of greater severity and similar infectivity, the USA would be in a real pickle. If nothing else, this was a useful drill for such an event. The countries I mentioned and others have shown they have the toolkit to deal with even a virus as infectious as COVID, without waiting for a vaccine. In fact, most would be shutting the international borders far earlier than we have in future, completely avoiding the problem, or dealing with the small outbreaks. The key is to act early. Some short term pain is endured but then life goes on!

    It is notable that the Swedish model has failed and it’s not for the Swedes lack of trying it. They have ended their experiment.

    Somehow, COVID has gotten politicized and it seems I am at odds with most republican types unfortunately. There is still much common ground, no need to get nasty or rude with our hosts. You might also realize that they are older gentlemen who have a non-trivial risk of death with COVID. I would prefer both stick around as long as possible.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Anonymous


    It is notable that the Swedish model has failed and it’s not for the Swedes lack of trying it. They have ended their experiment.
     
    The chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell found Jesus, rejected the pursuit of herd immunity as immoral and wants vaccine now.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-herd-immunity-sweden-covid-cases-anders-tegnell-b1421541.html
    It is “futile and immoral” to seek herd immunity as a protection from a pandemic, and the transmission of an infectious disease like Covid-19 cannot be fully halted without a vaccine, Sweden’s chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell has said. (October 29)
     
    The question is should Sweden get vaccine before Finland, Norway and other countries that sacrificed their economy to postpone the deaths of their citizens while Sweden kept economy going while letting their people die? Perhaps Tegnell could answer since he is now a moralist.

    And bty, he is mistaken. You can get herd immunity by letting the virus spread so it is not futile and you can halt the epidemic without vaccine. Look at Taiwan and New Zealand.

    , @Federalist
    @Anonymous


    I am in agreement with both Steve and Ron. I find myself with a different point of view to a lot of the commentariat.
     
    Go back and read what they said at the height of the panic (or better yet, don't). There's a reason Steve almost completely stopped talking about Covid.
    , @RadicalCenter
    @Anonymous

    No, unless they have some preexisting respiratory condition, suffer from poorly treated / controlled diabetes or hypertension, or are immunocompromised, they are not at high risk of dying from this virus at all. As they should know by now.

    My elderly and generally healthy but not svelte mother — Much older than sailer or our host — has continued to live life completely normally, as have most of her friends of like age. They are neither so hysterical nor so arrogant as to demand that everyone submit to a police state and live like isolated, state-surveilled, unduly frightened freaks in a vain attempt to make life almost risk-free or reduce the mortality risks of old or infirm people to the mortality profile of younger and healthier people.

    Moreover, anyone in the position of unz and sailer who is so afraid of covid exposure — rationally or irrationally — has always been free to wear a mask and faceshield. And these men because of their achievements and earnings, and the nature of steve’s work, can readily financially afford to stay home; tens of millions of Americans cannot afford that.

    People who have both the intelligence and ample free time to honestly ascertain the risk posed by this virus are selfish or ill informed if they fail or refuse to do so competently. They have a lot of damn nerve and are wrong to support destroying our liberty and dignity and privacy, destroying many millions of small businesses and livelihoods, impoverishing owners snd employees alike, causing a coming surge in evictions and foreclosures and thus homelessness and despair and crime, wrecking and deadening our neighborhoods and our very way of life.

    I wonder whether unz and sailer would thoroughly read and consider www.swprs.org and its medical sources. Rather than insult or attack me, or point out that I am not an MD or epidemiologist, one could specifically address the points made by the people running that site who ARE experienced MDs and medical scientists.

    Replies: @Oizd

    , @Polynikes
    @Anonymous

    Sweden has no excess death. Their model is superior to whatever you’re crying about.

  47. @Kaz
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Deaths aren't the only thing.

    Hospital systems are overwhelmed. This is with a 'soft' lockdown.

    The people who don't die can face debilitating effects, no understanding of long term effects.

    Lots of things to consider aside from simple deaths. It's just the easiest thing to measure.

    Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country, @RichardTaylor, @Mr. Anon, @epebble, @Bill Jones, @JR Ewing

    15 million people have been infected and when it is all over, may be upwards of 30 million would have been infected. If even a few millions of these become long haulers, that will have a major impact on the socio-economics of the country – like PTSD or Polio survivors.

    https://health.ucdavis.edu/coronavirus/covid-19-information/covid-19-long-haulers.html

    https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/the-tragedy-of-the-post-covid-long-haulers-2020101521173

    • Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @epebble

    15 million have tested positive, but most people did not bother to get tested. The CDC estimates that about 100 million Americans were infected with COVID 19. When the virus was spreading rapidly thru the tri-State area in April it was difficult to get tested here in NJ. You to wait for hours in long lines, and they were not testing asymptomatic people. Many people were turned away from the testing centers and told to come back tomorrow because they ran out of swabs...and Everyone we knew who got sick in April stayed home, nobody wanted to go to the hospital when they had no effective treatments.

    Replies: @Redman, @epebble

  48. How many of those excess deaths were caused by cancelled cancer screenings and surgeries? How many by cancellation of heart monitoring for people with chronic heart disease? How many deaths from uncontrolled diabetes due to doctors who think that a phone call constitutes health care?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Bill H

    Many in the future. Not many in early April.

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco, @Ryan Andrews, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

  49. @Bill H
    How many of those excess deaths were caused by cancelled cancer screenings and surgeries? How many by cancellation of heart monitoring for people with chronic heart disease? How many deaths from uncontrolled diabetes due to doctors who think that a phone call constitutes health care?

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    Many in the future. Not many in early April.

    • Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @Steve Sailer

    The hospitals killed many patients by putting them on ventilators and sending sick patients to the nursing homes. Once we realized our mistakes the fatality rates started to decline.

    There was no need to keep New York beaches closed for the The Fourth of July. No reason to keep schools closed in September. Here in NJ the churches remained closed all summer , months after the curve was flattened.. little league was cancelled...some school districts in NJ have yet to open. Our local district was closed until November. There was no justification for this. Excess deaths in NJ were below zero after May, yet the lockdowns continued...

    Replies: @HA

    , @Ryan Andrews
    @Steve Sailer

    Right. That's why we probably should not expect a trough of deaths over the next few years. We'll likely be paying the price for these lockdowns for years, decades. It's not just the skipped medical visits, but the social, economic, and educational fallout will exert a negative pull on life expectancy for most of the rest of the century. We're seeing reports of schools where 40% of the grades are Fs. 40%.

    A couple observations:
    Why would the baseline assumption for deaths this year be lower than the last few years, as the graph suggests? The population is only getting larger and older, so I would assume the default assumption would be for the number of deaths to tick-up a bit every year.

    To me, the worst part of the pandemic hysteria is that at no point have "The Experts" bothered to offer a liming principle to their madness. What is the standard for when we have to mask-up, ban large public gatherings, etc? Maybe I'm out-of-touch, but imagining we had been given an accurate assessment of the situation beforehand—there's going to be a new and highly contagious virus circulating for the next year or two and we expect the mortality rate to be 10-20% higher, the profile of the people dying will be the same as usual, but there will 10-20% more of them—I would think that the average person would react to that by saying, "Wow, that sucks," and not give the matter a whole lot more thought. Of course we would hear about it in the news from time-to-time, and maybe we'd go out a bit less because of it, but I certainly would not expect the reaction to be anything like this.

    Now we know that a 10-20% increase in the mortality rate means that movie theaters, concert venues, and sporting areas must all be shuddered, and we must wear masks into the few public venues that are open, which may or may no include restaurants and schools. Well, ok, but what about when a bug comes around that causes a 5% increase in mortality? Do we continue as normal? Or do some of the measures we're doing now kick-in again? Or do all of them kick-in? What about a 2% increase in mortality? Do we have to wear masks every flu season? Should we stop holding large indoor public gatherings during flu season, or maybe all together? What are the standards going forward?

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Joseph Doaks

    , @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @Steve Sailer

    Is it not reasonable to expect those second and third peaks to include deaths caused by lockdown? Especially the third peak: I'm thinking aggressive tumours that would've been picked by routine screenings earlier in the year would've started killing people by now.

  50. @Louis Renault
    What's the graph of baby-boomer age in relation? What number are reaching 78 (average age of death in the US) and how did that change from 2017/18/19? The leading edge of the boomer generation must be hitting that target now and the average number of deaths are going to go up every year until we reach the boomer peak.

    Replies: @Travis, @Mark G.

    good point…the number of yearly deaths in the United States climbed significantly since 2010 when boomers started turning 65. Now they are turning 75 and we see another increase in deaths because so many boomers are getting older.

    Year – US deaths
    2000 – 2,403,351
    2005 – 2,448,017
    2010 – 2,418,435
    2015 – 2,712,630
    2018 – 2,839,205
    2020- 2,991,000

    why did deaths jump 300,000 in 2015 from 2010 ?
    looks similar to the increase in deaths when we compare 2015 to 2020

    with the dramatic reduction of smoking and better healthcare , why did so many more Americans die in 2015 compared to 2010 ? Did anyone investigate this ? More significant for the future of America is the dramatic drop in White births. From 3 million white births per year in the 1960’s to under 2 million white births per year since 2015

    • Agree: Marco de Wit
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Travis

    So that's why deaths climbed 40% from early March to the second week in April?

    Replies: @RVS, @Travis, @MGB, @Anon

  51. @Achmed E. Newman
    Really, that graph doesn't look scary at all. I've seen graphs showing comparisons of this excess death amounts to that in previous Oriental-bug epidemic years, going back through a big one in the late 1960s. Especially as compared to total population, and knowing that this doesn't effect the young at all hardly, I don't see a reason society should be expected to all comply together to new totalitarianism as if this were The Big One, dubya, dubya II.

    It's not the Black Plague 2.0, or else that graph would go up farther than we could scroll. As for B.A.S.E. (Buildings, Antennas, Spans, Earth) jumping, if this LOCKDOWN and mandatory face-diapering shit goes on much longer there may be a lot of new BASE jumpers who've never skydived before in their lives.

    Replies: @HA

    “Really, that graph doesn’t look scary at all.”

    So what? The graph is of those we DIDN’T save. The fact that locking down and distancing and masking managed to keep the death rates at what you claim is a “not scary at all” level is just, if anything, a high-five for those who mandated all those restrictions.

    In other words, if you were trying to shoot yourself in the foot, that was pretty good aim.

    The scarier graph is the one that showing how many WOULD have died with let-‘er-rip. If you want to pretend that’s not in the 7 figures (which would have been a lot easier to argue before the number we didn’t save got as high as it did) then go and show it. As it is, the fact that the first peak — the one that happened before the lockdowns really got underway — is the scariest one is going to make that effort all the more difficult.

    [MORE]

    Likewise, arguing over whether those those we didn’t save from COVID is larger than those who died because of what was done to prevent that 7-figure death toll is not going to help you, either. Neither is trying to compare the ones we didn’t save from COVID to the let-‘er-rip deaths from the Hong Kong flu. Apples and oranges.

    The fact that you keep mixing these numbers up makes your argument all the more pathetic. But again, if that’s what you were trying to do, then just keep on doing it.

    • Replies: @anonymous coward
    @HA


    The fact that locking down and distancing and masking managed to keep the death rates at what you claim is a “not scary at all” level is just, if anything, a high-five for those who mandated all those restrictions.
     
    Covid deaths are due to autoimmune reactions. Masks and lockdown do absolutely nothing to fight against autoimmune disorders.

    The masks and lockdowns didn't save a single person from Covid.

    Replies: @HA, @John Achterhof

    , @Catdog
    @HA

    You are justifying panick because more people *didn't* die.

    Replies: @HA

    , @Achmed E. Newman
    @HA

    What graph that shows how many people would have died? Do you mean the 2 million that the shrill hysterics got from their mathematical models based on mortality rates with uncertain numerators and denominators? My point is that there have been bugs before that have given higher excess deaths. Society didn't go nuts those other times.

    Aren't you the big Healthcare Hero, talking about who "we didn't save"! Who do you think you are, Alan Alda in a M*A*S*H* unit? You have no idea how much damage people like you, HA, have done to society with your PanicFest. Those numbers aren't in yet.

    I'm not mixing up any numbers, because I didn't lay out any numbers to mix up. The mix-up is in your head, HA. I am somebody with some PERSPECTIVE who can see from the general numbers around him that this is no Black Plague 2.0. Were it that, we STILL wouldn't need mandatory LOCKDOWNS, as people would be holing up on their own with their beans, bullets, and band-aids.

    Replies: @HA

  52. @Farenheit
    An extra line to show the economic cost of the lockdowns would be great. Have we spent the equivalent of a couple Manhattan Projects to slide the end date for octogenarians one way or the other a bit?

    Replies: @Alden

    Not just octogenarians, but octogenarians with cancer, COPD, severe cardiovascular problems and other conditions. That’s why nursing home deaths were so high.

    I don’t know one person who had covid. We’re old and all our friends and many relatives are old. Hundreds of tenants, clients and employees, no covid. Big extended family, no covid no one in this big family knows anyone who had covid

    No one. I know knows anyone who had covid.

    • Replies: @Hhsiii
    @Alden

    I had it, my niece had it, my brother-in-law had it. He had it the worst but he’s fine now. I barely noticed it.

    My 4 year old’s class just got put on remote for two weeks, 2 days after starting back up. Someone in the class tested positive. We think a teacher but they won’t say. My wife is worried, of course. She just kicked me to the couch for coughing. And she keeps checking the little one. She says he’s stopped up, stuffy nose. I said he always has a stuffy nose, comes with kids going to school.

    I’ve had some colleagues (no one I really knew) die. It doesn’t seem to affect kids much even if a teacher gets it. And yes mostly the old and people with comorbidities. And I feel for people in affected businesses. It sucks. Hopefully just a few more months to go. One last push.

    You take care now. Good to hear your circle is unaffected.

  53. @Steve Sailer
    @Bill H

    Many in the future. Not many in early April.

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco, @Ryan Andrews, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    The hospitals killed many patients by putting them on ventilators and sending sick patients to the nursing homes. Once we realized our mistakes the fatality rates started to decline.

    There was no need to keep New York beaches closed for the The Fourth of July. No reason to keep schools closed in September. Here in NJ the churches remained closed all summer , months after the curve was flattened.. little league was cancelled…some school districts in NJ have yet to open. Our local district was closed until November. There was no justification for this. Excess deaths in NJ were below zero after May, yet the lockdowns continued…

    • Agree: Marco de Wit
    • Thanks: Mark G.
    • Replies: @HA
    @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    "Excess deaths in NJ were below zero after May, yet the lockdowns continued…"

    Ah yes, the old Fox Butterfield fallacy, as in "why are we still locking people up in prison even though crime rates have come down?"

    We get it. When death rates go up, it means lockdowns are ineffective. When they go down, it means lockdowns are no longer needed. I could almost go for it were it not for the fact that there's all this research showing a new, highly contagious respiratory disease floating around. They've sequenced it, and modeled it, and despite empty promises that this thing would fizzle out in summer, or that we were "almost at herd immunity", it stubbornly keeps hanging around -- just the way the experts said it would -- to the point where it's getting really hard to take seriously the loons who want to pretend we should just ignore it or shrug it off.

    Replies: @Travis, @Travis

  54. anonymous[239] • Disclaimer says:

    Steve, it’s sad to see your readership is filled with dumb people. How hard would it be for some of the people commenting above to simply declare covid is very deadly but the lockdown isn’t worth the cost? Instead they attack you for unvarnished insights and screech like leftists confronted with hate facts and numbers.

    • Agree: Bert
    • Replies: @ken
    @anonymous

    COVID can be deadly, but so are the lockdowns. A great sadness for me has been viewing people, healthy, rational people prior to COVID, who now operate in a constant climate of fear. If I had cancer and the doctor told me I had a 99% survival rate I'd be doing handstands, but the same stats for COVID and I need to hide in my house?

    Replies: @Trinity

  55. @anonimo11
    we can only be horrified about what happened in this country in winter 2017-2018. That peak in mortality easily exceeds all peaks in the picture except the winter 2020 peak. That is for the height. The area under that broader peak is in fact quite similar or exceeding the covid-19 first peak.

    This is hardly just the USA. You repeat this analysis for Sweden data, which has excellent records, and you can see that in Sweden with no lockdowns 2020 was the fifth worst winter since 1988.

    So this the barbarous civilization we all come from. No lockdowns ever for severe die-offs, in Europe or the USA. Fortunately an intrepid band of governors, supported by our superbly unbiased press, is putting things to right. from now on, lockdowns for any peak in mortality will be supported and implemented.

    Replies: @HA

    “we can only be horrified about what happened in this country in winter 2017-2018… The area under that broader peak is in fact quite similar or exceeding the covid-19 first peak.”

    If you’re blind or crazy or both, then yeah. Otherwise, no.

    “You repeat this analysis for Sweden data, which has excellent records, and you can see that in Sweden with no lockdowns 2020 was the fifth worst winter since 1988.”

    “No lockdowns”? As in people mostly being willing to isolate when sick because of the generous government funded sick-leave that paid them for doing so? And to avoid theatres and restaurants because they still trust their governmental health experts as opposed to sending them death threats?

    OK, fine, if you want a socialized medical system that does what Sweden does, then I guess that might work (though even in Sweden it worked badly for the not-like-Canada segment of the population, and it worked REALLY badly for the third-world immigrants taking care of the residents of nursing homes. Those were mostly shift-workers and those jobs don’t get that cushy government-paid sick-leave, so if they get the sniffles and feel feverish, they just decide to power through as opposed to losing out on a shift regardless of how many grandmas die.)

    In other words, scratch that — it actually wouldn’t work at all in the vast not-like-Canada portions of the US that took the biggest COVID hits.

    Besides, given how much worse Sweden did than its neighbors, that was at best going to be an uphill battle.

    • Agree: utu
    • Replies: @anonimo11
    @HA

    I am sorry I did not use the sarcasm font. It is not provided.

    , @RichardTaylor
    @HA

    There are important voices that agree with you. This woman gets it:

    https://twitter.com/shanermurph/status/1335756575605202944

    Replies: @Old Prude, @HA, @Achmed E. Newman

  56. Questions that should be asked by all those who object to countermeasures.

    (1) How many more deaths would we have if no countermeasures were taken? (2) Could smarter and less intrusive countermeasures produce similar or better results?

    (1) By looking at the very similar Nordic countries we keep the confounding variables to the minimum, so we can get a good idea how effective lockdowns can be by comparing Sweden with its Nordic neighbors.

    The factor of 10 lower fatality rate in Sweden’s neighbors is due to lockdowns and more effective tracing and isolating ability. May we conclude that if the US opted for the Swedish approach, as many here advocate, we would have 2.5 million deaths by now? It is hard to say because we are not doing as well as Finland or Norway and on the other hand the US has higher effective density of population than Sweden and has higher occupancy per apartment in the citries than Sweden so it has lower natural social distance than Sweden. But there is no doubt that the death toll would be significantly higher if the Swedish model was adopted in the US.

    Effective tracing and isolating is the key to success but it can be effective only when the infection rate is low enough to be manageable. For this reason it often had to be preceded by a lockdown which is the fastest way to get the infection rate down to the manageable level. Japan avoided a lockdown because it already had in place an excellent system of tracing and isolating plus they used the universal masking to keep R0 close or below one. Sooner you start the lockdown the better off you are. Italian data show, what any reasonable person would expect, that number of deaths is directly proportional to the number of days from the first case to the start of lockdown. If on the East coast in NY and NJ lockdowns were two weeks earlier the first peak would be greatly attenuated and the lockdowns themselves would be shorter.

    (2) Many things could have been done differently starting in February and March. But there was no vision and no leadership. For instance it was possible still in February or even March to go for the complete elimination of the virus in the continental United States. It would require (1) Five week lockdown, (2) Strict border control with mandatory (no BS) quarantine, (2) Effective tracing and isolating and (4) Universal masking. By the end of May we would be getting back to normal providing that we would keep strict border control and mandatory (no BS) quarantine to prevent virus importation. New Zealand and Taiwan pretty much succeed in the virus elimination strategy. Taiwan’s last death (out of 7) was on May 11.

    Instead we are in, what Karlin called, idiot’s limbo. Still there is no leadership and no vision except there is now the hope that vaccination will get us out of the limbo.

    Would it be possible to isolate the most vulnerable population and let the majority conduct normal life? In theory yes. But nobody has tried it. Observed reduction of the IFR since the start of the epidemic in several countries suggests that the vulnerable are protected better now.

    • Replies: @BenKenobi
    @utu


    May we conclude that if the US opted for the Swedish approach, as many here advocate, we would have 2.5 million deaths by now?
     
    That’s a good start.

    Also, show us on the doll where the Swedes hurt you.
    , @Mark G.
    @utu


    The factor of 10 lower fatality rate in Sweden’s neighbors is due to lockdowns and more effective tracing and isolating ability.
     
    Sweden has a larger number of immigrants than nearby Scandinavian countries. The police have little control in some of the large immigrant areas. Government officials there have said privately one reason lockdowns were not instituted was because they could not be successfully enforced in immigrant areas.

    Many of these immigrants in Sweden are unemployable because of low IQ and being unable to follow directions due to not understanding the native language. The Swedish government set up a government program to find jobs for these unemployable immigrants and gave many of them jobs working in nursing homes. This was a bad idea. It led to higher levels of deaths in nursing homes there.

    In the most recent wave of cases, Sweden has had a lower death rate than several other European countries that had hard lockdowns in the Spring. The countries that locked down hard earlier may have just spread some of their deaths over a longer period of time and shifted some deaths to a later point in time.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief, @utu, @LondonBob

    , @Bert
    @utu


    Would it be possible to isolate the most vulnerable population and let the majority conduct normal life? In theory yes. But nobody has tried it.
     
    The Trump administration undoubtedly received much vague advice about "flattening the curve" from supposedly competent epidemiologists like Carl Bergstrom. Whether Trump ever saw a plan for isolating the vulnerable while encouraging other citizens to continue as normal we will never know. But I did send such a plan to seven Republican senators in March and also posted it here on Steve Sailer's comments. It included measures like on-site residence by nursing home staff, and until that was organized by moving mobile homes on site, etc., staffing by military reserves and National Guard personnel. Mandatory but paid home sequestration for everyone over a certain age, unless they were essential workers, e.g., medical personnel or supply-chain supervisors. Two or three openminded people could have created a workable plan in a day or two.

    The fact is that this country currently has no will to handle any public problem, be it an epidemic, the debt load, a Carrington Event, whatever. And I don't really believe that's because of any uniquely American moral failure. It results from the intersection of two phenomena.

    The first is the increasing influence of sociopaths in positions of power. Bureaucracies are catnip to the high-functioning sociopaths. In the U.S., bureaucracies are a feature of only the last 80 years, but one that has exerted greater influence every one of those years. Bureaucratic sociopaths don't want to solve problems but rather are focused on what they can win or lose in a crisis. So no leadership from Government.

    The second phenomenon is a hypothesized mental module that was adaptive in hunter-gatherers. The module monitors one's local social environment. If social conditions are tolerable, natural selection would work against any psychological tendency to upset the status quo or to leave the group. Only when the module detects truly unsustainable social conditions does it signal an executive function module to do something about what or who is causing the problem. Americans' lives are not so bad yet that their social condition monitoring-module would signal them to clean out the sociopaths and restructure their government from the sociopathic heaven of democracy to the sociopath's nightmare of demarchy.
    , @peterike
    @utu


    If on the East coast in NY and NJ lockdowns were two weeks earlier the first peak would be greatly attenuated and the lockdowns themselves would be shorter.
     
    Except that after a huge spike (due largely to horrendously bad policy), the death rates in NY and NJ fell to almost nothing for months (hey, summer!), yet little changed in the political response. And now it's rising again (hey, winter is here!) while things have been locked and masked and distanced non-stop since March.


    Observed reduction of the IFR since the start of the epidemic in several countries suggests that the vulnerable are protected better now.
     
    Or that the virus isn't nearly are dangerous as it was at the start. We aren't seeing many of those "I got the virus and was really ill for five weeks" stories anymore. Mostly everyone just shrugs it off now. My guess is that Covid "deaths" being recorded now are even more ludicrously over-counted then they were at the start of this fiasco.
    , @Anonymous Jew
    @utu

    See my comment at #170

    , @AnotherDad
    @utu


    The factor of 10 lower fatality rate in Sweden’s neighbors is due to lockdowns and more effective tracing and isolating ability. May we conclude that <i>if the US opted for the Swedish approach, as many here advocate, we would have 2.5 million deaths by now?
     
    Politely as possible: utter innumeracy.

    2.5 million Xi deaths is a 90% bump in mortality.

    Is Sweden at even 100K deaths for the year? They have to get to 100K deaths to be even reach a 10% death bump! They may make it--maybe. That's your Swedish apocalypse.

    The US also looks to be headed about a 10% bump. In fact, if you believe that the reported Corona deaths are really all excess deaths, we should be there now. We may well be doing a bit worse than Sweden. It's more or less the same.

    We wouldn't have 2.5 million covid-19 deaths if the US had done absolutely nothing at all. We wouldn't have 2.5 million deaths if we'd had everyone in the US exposed. Now to be fair, we have 50m 65+ seniors, and 12m or so 80+ers, so i'm sure you could find a way to kill 2.5m of 'em with a Xi-laced nasal spray to give them an enormous viral load upfront. But that's not what the exposure people get normally. The normal course--full run--of this epidemic wouldn't even match a years normal deaths.

    ~~~


    US has higher effective density of population than Sweden ...
     
    You nattering about Sweden's population density--especially with regard to its neighbors (like the graph above)--is ridiculous.

    People are not scattered randomly throughout Sweden. Basically everyone lives in the south--Stockholm (or Uppsala) on down. It's essentially like Ohio--10 millionish people, three large metros--with a big empty Wyoming attached. The Ohio part is what matters--the large urban areas where essentially all the Swedes live. The Wyoming part up north is completely irrelevant to the virus. It's like blathering that the land area in Alaska has anything to do with the virus situation in the US. (Next you'll start blathering about how poorly the Canadians are doing given all that land!)

    (I've now explain this reality to you clearly, so you should stop with your "low density" nonsense.)

    In reality Sweden is a very highly urbanized country. And--just the way their welfare system works--they have a higher percentage of their elderly in group care homes compared to their neighbors. In other words, in terms of the density that actually matters Sweden is considerably more dense than their neighbors.

    And--they admit it--they did a poor job keeping the virus out of their care homes. This wasn't intentional "discrimination!" slaughter like we saw from Cuomo, but it was poor management. They were vulnerable and weren't/didn't rally fast enough to protect their elderly in care.

    ~~

    You don't like the Swedes not following your desired "lockdown!" protocol. Fine.

    But deal with the reality. The US is in pretty much exactly the same place as Sweden--a 10% death bump. Whatever good the lockdown nonsense did--very little i suspect--it was completely swallowed up by the US having a fatter, somewhat less healthy population.

    Replies: @utu

  57. @Dave
    Conclusion: It's bad, but not apocalyptic. One's view of the subject depends on whether you're an old person who desperately wants a few more years of life, or a young person who desperately wants to have a life.

    I met a middle-aged nurse a year younger than me who got it last March. She was very sick for weeks, and still had tightness in her chest months later. So I won't die of it, but lasting organ damage is a real possibility.

    Replies: @anonymous coward

    So I won’t die of it, but lasting organ damage is a real possibility.

    That’s bullshit. I had Covid, and I know dozens of people who had it. Nobody experienced anything out of the ordinary for a common respiratory viral infection.

    Yes, some people get severe autoimmune reactions to Covid, but those people are very rare, and if you’re one of them you’ll know immediately.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @anonymous coward

    Even if you know dozens of people who had Covid, that doesn't mean squat. The number of people in the US alone who have had Covid is in the millions, not dozens. I don't know anyone who died in an auto crash this year (so according to your logic, I can conclude that all car crashes are just fender benders) but in fact every year 35,000 people in the US die in car crashes.

    The effects of Covid seem to vary wildly - kids experience it as a mild cold or sometimes even have no symptoms despite being positive. Old people often die from it, as do middle aged people who are obese, diabetic, have pre-existing respiratory conditions, etc.. In between it is somewhat unpredictable. Most recover after a week or two with no after effects but a certain % (including people who were previously fit and with no comorbidities) have lingering after effects. Something like 20% are not ready to resume their normal activities after 2 weeks. When you apply these percentages to a large population like that of the US, this adds up to hundreds of thousands of deaths and millions of people with long term (ranging from months to years to lifetime ) impairment.

    What is amusing to me is that the same people who poo poo the long term effects and risk of death from Covid speculate wildly over the possible side effects of the vaccine. People are really lousy at assessing relative risks and wildly overestimate some and underestimate others.

    Replies: @Desiderius

    , @Dave
    @anonymous coward

    If I get HCQ, Zithro, and zinc (the Trump cocktail) within a few days of infection, I'll probably be fine. But the government might not let me have those drugs because they want people like me to suffer organ damage to justify their lockdowns. If I could legally buy those drugs ahead of time (they only cost a few dollars), I'd be much less worried about Covid.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief

  58. @HA
    @Achmed E. Newman

    "Really, that graph doesn’t look scary at all."

    So what? The graph is of those we DIDN'T save. The fact that locking down and distancing and masking managed to keep the death rates at what you claim is a "not scary at all" level is just, if anything, a high-five for those who mandated all those restrictions.

    In other words, if you were trying to shoot yourself in the foot, that was pretty good aim.

    The scarier graph is the one that showing how many WOULD have died with let-'er-rip. If you want to pretend that's not in the 7 figures (which would have been a lot easier to argue before the number we didn't save got as high as it did) then go and show it. As it is, the fact that the first peak -- the one that happened before the lockdowns really got underway -- is the scariest one is going to make that effort all the more difficult.

    Likewise, arguing over whether those those we didn't save from COVID is larger than those who died because of what was done to prevent that 7-figure death toll is not going to help you, either. Neither is trying to compare the ones we didn't save from COVID to the let-'er-rip deaths from the Hong Kong flu. Apples and oranges.

    The fact that you keep mixing these numbers up makes your argument all the more pathetic. But again, if that's what you were trying to do, then just keep on doing it.

    Replies: @anonymous coward, @Catdog, @Achmed E. Newman

    The fact that locking down and distancing and masking managed to keep the death rates at what you claim is a “not scary at all” level is just, if anything, a high-five for those who mandated all those restrictions.

    Covid deaths are due to autoimmune reactions. Masks and lockdown do absolutely nothing to fight against autoimmune disorders.

    The masks and lockdowns didn’t save a single person from Covid.

    • Replies: @HA
    @anonymous coward

    "Covid deaths are due to autoimmune reactions...."

    If you mean cytokine storms, then a good way to avoid dying from those is to avoid coming down with COVID.

    "The masks and lockdowns didn’t save a single person from Covid."

    Not a single person, you say? That's the hill you want to die on? If this that's the most convincing case you can make, then again, it's no wonder that what you call "hysteria" won out, especially given the above graph. If you want to blame anyone for that loss, look within.

    , @John Achterhof
    @anonymous coward


    Covid deaths are due to autoimmune reactions. Masks and lockdown do absolutely nothing to fight against autoimmune disorders.
     
    Deaths of falls of great distance are not caused by the fall itself but rather the sudden stop.
  59. @Citizen of a Silly Country
    Steve,

    This is beneath you, and, frankly, saddening. Only the tin-hat crowd ever claimed the Covid-19 wasn't real.

    Yes, Steve, Covid-19 is real. You got us.

    Okay, back to adult world, which, inexplicably, you seem to have abandoned on this subject. The question with Covid was never "Is it real?" but was "How bad is it, and what is the cost/benefit of various measures to slow its spread?"

    Covid appears to be on track to accelerating (not generally causing) the deaths of an additional ~320k Americans (funny how that term no longer means much to me), i.e. 0.1% of the population. That's no joke, but it's not the Black Death either.

    But the question was always (and remains) how many people would have died (actually, had their death accelerated) if we had simply warned vulnerable groups to be careful and let the virus spread quickly among the healthy population vs how many people would have died (sorry, had their deaths accelerated) if we had massive shutdowns?

    In addition, we would consider the negative externalities of a shutdown, such as businesses being destroyed, increased suicides, increased substance abuse, kids not learning because they're not in school, increased domestic abuse, etc.

    Then, we would weigh to the expected number of additional accelerated deaths (admittedly, a guess) vs all of those negative consequences (again, a guess). Because, you know, that's what serious adults do. We make hard choices based on the facts available.

    Instead, we had Harpies (and some internet pundits) throwing logic and facts out the window and demanding the world shut down for an admittedly very, very nasty flu-like virus because, well, because they didn't like it.

    Steve, wake up! Instead of showing a graph pretty much all of us have seen, why don't you analyze the numbers. This post is marginally - and just marginally - above the Today Show ladies clutching their pearls about the rising case count. Jesus, it's embarrassing.

    You're one of the best columnists of the past 30 years, a person who's writings hopefully will be read by (White) generations to come. Don't let it end this way.

    Replies: @Kaz, @vhrm, @Old Prude, @Anon, @OutsideMan, @Anon87

    But the question was always (and remains) how many people would have died (actually, had their death accelerated) if we had simply warned vulnerable groups to be careful and let the virus spread quickly among the healthy population vs how many people would have died (sorry, had their deaths accelerated) if we had massive shutdowns?

    AFAIK it’s entirely unknown. One somewhat surprising (to me) thing is that the lockdowns don’t appear to have had much effect on the spread of the virus at all. Like i have yet to see a graph where you can see a lockdown start and then 5-10 days later there’s a significant downturn in new cases. So far i haven’t seen one. I’d be curious to see a study that shows what impact various measures have had, but haven’t seen one of those either.

    This article concurs on the shutdowns:
    https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/10/stats-hold-a-surprise-lockdowns-may-have-had-little-effect-on-covid-19-spread/

    Also worth noting that (based on the is Aug article about a paper by some economists) only 12% of the decrease in mobility to retail businesses in the US was caused by government action. The rest was consumer choice, but that 60% of the job losses were driven by government action (basically because restaurants were really hard hit by government shutdowns).

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-lockdowns-economy-pandemic-recession-business-shutdown-sweden-coronavirus-11598281419
    That article is a really good review how untested and seat of the pants these tactics have been.

    Judging by the effects so far, at least in the US, the effects on contagion have been minimal.

    That said, i think Steve’s post is a good review because in some recent threads this week some of the skeptics really have forgotten that there are excess deaths.

    • Replies: @utu
    @vhrm

    "This article concurs on the shutdowns" - This might be faith based science. Shouldn't you be cautious about the book titled:

    The Price of Panic: How the Tyranny of Experts Turned a Pandemic into a Catastrophe

    written by Jay W. Richards who is "analytic theologian and intelligent design and free market advocate"

    Douglas Axe who authored "Undeniable: How Biology Confirms Our Intuition That Life Is Designed"

    blogger William M. Briggs with entries like "The Politicization Of Coronadoom", "The Cult Of The Mask: Coronavirus", "Bend Over And Take The Experimental Vaccine, Or Be Kicked Out Of Society"

    Do you think these men can approach the subject objectively w/o bringing their biases?

    Replies: @vhrm

    , @Jack D
    @vhrm


    The rest was consumer choice, but that 60% of the job losses were driven by government action (basically because restaurants were really hard hit by government shutdowns).
     
    Restaurants were already being hard hit before the shutdowns. Dem mayors were BEGGING people to come downtown and enjoy a nice Chinese meal but the restaurants were empty. Even after the lockdowns were eased, many restaurants stayed pretty empty for indoor dining. Part of that was that the offices were closed too, but part of it is that a restaurant is a really good place to catch Covid and (some) people have enough sense to stay out of them, with or without a lockdown.

    Replies: @RadicalCenter

  60. @epebble
    @Kaz

    15 million people have been infected and when it is all over, may be upwards of 30 million would have been infected. If even a few millions of these become long haulers, that will have a major impact on the socio-economics of the country - like PTSD or Polio survivors.

    https://health.ucdavis.edu/coronavirus/covid-19-information/covid-19-long-haulers.html

    https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/the-tragedy-of-the-post-covid-long-haulers-2020101521173

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    15 million have tested positive, but most people did not bother to get tested. The CDC estimates that about 100 million Americans were infected with COVID 19. When the virus was spreading rapidly thru the tri-State area in April it was difficult to get tested here in NJ. You to wait for hours in long lines, and they were not testing asymptomatic people. Many people were turned away from the testing centers and told to come back tomorrow because they ran out of swabs…and Everyone we knew who got sick in April stayed home, nobody wanted to go to the hospital when they had no effective treatments.

    • Replies: @Redman
    @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    I got Covid on 3/10 here in NYC. The only people I know who had Covid got it around that same time, give or take a couple weeks. When I went to the doctor on 3/12 (after starting to feel a bit better) they didn't even have a test to give me. I only "confirmed" that I had had Covid a month ago with an antibody test.

    I suspect that well over 50% of the NYC population has had it by now, and most either had mild flu-like symptoms or their T-cells fought off the infection. Today, Manhattan's PCR positivity rate is a mere 2.5% with thousands of tests being given daily. Yet the midtown area continues to look like a post-apocalyptic nightmare.

    , @epebble
    @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    The CDC estimates that about 100 million Americans were infected with COVID 19.

    If so, we should be on our way to herd immunity even without vaccine. But, I agree, tested positive may not mean a lot, especially if someone is asymptomatic. But, based on deaths, if 500,000 deaths are assumed to be the final count, multiple number of this will be long haulers. If, say, 5 million people become long haulers, that may impact labor force participation rate.

    https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  61. @Bernard
    Once again, diversity is our strength.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/09/us/african-american-scientists-vaccine-development-trnd/index.html

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist

    The scenario in that story is cringe-worthy for all involved. The level of condescension/patronizing is grotesque.

  62. @HA
    @anonimo11

    "we can only be horrified about what happened in this country in winter 2017-2018... The area under that broader peak is in fact quite similar or exceeding the covid-19 first peak."

    If you're blind or crazy or both, then yeah. Otherwise, no.

    "You repeat this analysis for Sweden data, which has excellent records, and you can see that in Sweden with no lockdowns 2020 was the fifth worst winter since 1988."

    "No lockdowns"? As in people mostly being willing to isolate when sick because of the generous government funded sick-leave that paid them for doing so? And to avoid theatres and restaurants because they still trust their governmental health experts as opposed to sending them death threats?

    OK, fine, if you want a socialized medical system that does what Sweden does, then I guess that might work (though even in Sweden it worked badly for the not-like-Canada segment of the population, and it worked REALLY badly for the third-world immigrants taking care of the residents of nursing homes. Those were mostly shift-workers and those jobs don't get that cushy government-paid sick-leave, so if they get the sniffles and feel feverish, they just decide to power through as opposed to losing out on a shift regardless of how many grandmas die.)

    In other words, scratch that -- it actually wouldn't work at all in the vast not-like-Canada portions of the US that took the biggest COVID hits.

    Besides, given how much worse Sweden did than its neighbors, that was at best going to be an uphill battle.

    Replies: @anonimo11, @RichardTaylor

    I am sorry I did not use the sarcasm font. It is not provided.

  63. @vhrm
    @Citizen of a Silly Country


    But the question was always (and remains) how many people would have died (actually, had their death accelerated) if we had simply warned vulnerable groups to be careful and let the virus spread quickly among the healthy population vs how many people would have died (sorry, had their deaths accelerated) if we had massive shutdowns?
     
    AFAIK it's entirely unknown. One somewhat surprising (to me) thing is that the lockdowns don't appear to have had much effect on the spread of the virus at all. Like i have yet to see a graph where you can see a lockdown start and then 5-10 days later there's a significant downturn in new cases. So far i haven't seen one. I'd be curious to see a study that shows what impact various measures have had, but haven't seen one of those either.

    This article concurs on the shutdowns:
    https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/10/stats-hold-a-surprise-lockdowns-may-have-had-little-effect-on-covid-19-spread/

    Also worth noting that (based on the is Aug article about a paper by some economists) only 12% of the decrease in mobility to retail businesses in the US was caused by government action. The rest was consumer choice, but that 60% of the job losses were driven by government action (basically because restaurants were really hard hit by government shutdowns).

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-lockdowns-economy-pandemic-recession-business-shutdown-sweden-coronavirus-11598281419
    That article is a really good review how untested and seat of the pants these tactics have been.

    Judging by the effects so far, at least in the US, the effects on contagion have been minimal.

    That said, i think Steve's post is a good review because in some recent threads this week some of the skeptics really have forgotten that there are excess deaths.

    Replies: @utu, @Jack D

    “This article concurs on the shutdowns” – This might be faith based science. Shouldn’t you be cautious about the book titled:

    The Price of Panic: How the Tyranny of Experts Turned a Pandemic into a Catastrophe

    written by Jay W. Richards who is “analytic theologian and intelligent design and free market advocate”

    Douglas Axe who authored “Undeniable: How Biology Confirms Our Intuition That Life Is Designed”

    blogger William M. Briggs with entries like “The Politicization Of Coronadoom”, “The Cult Of The Mask: Coronavirus”, “Bend Over And Take The Experimental Vaccine, Or Be Kicked Out Of Society”

    Do you think these men can approach the subject objectively w/o bringing their biases?

    • Replies: @vhrm
    @utu

    You may have a point there; people of that tone don't have the highest credibility.

    However the point still stands. I first noticed it when that @res was around in the spring and we were looking at some graphs related to the first wave lockdowns. But it's been the same since then: i haven't seen any graph of new cases/day or deaths/day that's shown any clear "signal" from the government lockdowns even at a lag.

    Eh, que sera sera. At this point whether it dies down in by itself in the next month or two or because of vaccine in the months after that it'll be done with.. and hopefully some research gets done on this stuff before Sars-cov-3 (and i remember to buy some powered respirators once the bruhaha dies down)

    Replies: @utu, @Steve Sailer

  64. Rudy Gulliani beat the virus!

  65. anon[299] • Disclaimer says:

    Steve, thank you for the sensible coverage on the topic. And also tolerating the comments of those that consider it a scamdemic (for lack of a better concise description). As a result, people who have followed the topic here have been exposed to an unusually broad set of viewpoints. Which is rare these days.

    To me, the most compelling argument that it is the disease itself that blows up modern, developed economies (as opposed to irrational responses) is the fact that it has been extremely difficult in all countries. Starting with China and covering the globe. Otherwise, I would have been highly suspicious of anti Trump deep staters. Not that they didn’t actively resist each and every measure tried by Trump. Even the countries that have done better than average found it extremely challenging.

    • Replies: @Redman
    @anon

    Except the deep state's real enemy isn't (just) Trump. It's populism and Trump's supporters. Which is the same enemy of the ruling elites in all of the western countries that went along with the bizarre lockdown plan in the name of science.

    Maybe you should broaden your skeptical perceptions.

  66. @Luke Lea
    It would be good to go back many more years for perspective. Also, how many of those excess deaths are due to lockdown? And will there be below average deaths in the period following the epidemic, because of the most vulnerable dying a little sooner than otherwise?

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Hypnotoad666, @JR Ewing, @stillCARealist

    What the hell happened in January 2018? That month had more deaths than any month this entire year except April.

    • Replies: @Billy Shears
    @Hypnotoad666

    I would guess bad flu season picked off a lot of the vulnerable. Notice the next years winter peak is below average.

    Replies: @Polynikes

  67. @Anonymous
    @Ron Unz

    I am in agreement with both Steve and Ron. I find myself with a different point of view to a lot of the commentariat.

    It seems that the individualism/atomism of the US combined with the hamfisted initial response has made it a situation where the US will bumble through until a vaccine is rolled out as there is no alternative. Australia, New Zealand and China have shown that yes, you can eliminate the virus and deal with outbreaks locally. A key is to contain and limit the travel so that the measures felt are localized.

    If there was another epidemic of greater severity and similar infectivity, the USA would be in a real pickle. If nothing else, this was a useful drill for such an event. The countries I mentioned and others have shown they have the toolkit to deal with even a virus as infectious as COVID, without waiting for a vaccine. In fact, most would be shutting the international borders far earlier than we have in future, completely avoiding the problem, or dealing with the small outbreaks. The key is to act early. Some short term pain is endured but then life goes on!

    It is notable that the Swedish model has failed and it's not for the Swedes lack of trying it. They have ended their experiment.

    Somehow, COVID has gotten politicized and it seems I am at odds with most republican types unfortunately. There is still much common ground, no need to get nasty or rude with our hosts. You might also realize that they are older gentlemen who have a non-trivial risk of death with COVID. I would prefer both stick around as long as possible.

    Replies: @utu, @Federalist, @RadicalCenter, @Polynikes

    It is notable that the Swedish model has failed and it’s not for the Swedes lack of trying it. They have ended their experiment.

    The chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell found Jesus, rejected the pursuit of herd immunity as immoral and wants vaccine now.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-herd-immunity-sweden-covid-cases-anders-tegnell-b1421541.html
    It is “futile and immoral” to seek herd immunity as a protection from a pandemic, and the transmission of an infectious disease like Covid-19 cannot be fully halted without a vaccine, Sweden’s chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell has said. (October 29)

    The question is should Sweden get vaccine before Finland, Norway and other countries that sacrificed their economy to postpone the deaths of their citizens while Sweden kept economy going while letting their people die? Perhaps Tegnell could answer since he is now a moralist.

    And bty, he is mistaken. You can get herd immunity by letting the virus spread so it is not futile and you can halt the epidemic without vaccine. Look at Taiwan and New Zealand.

  68. @Louis Renault
    What's the graph of baby-boomer age in relation? What number are reaching 78 (average age of death in the US) and how did that change from 2017/18/19? The leading edge of the boomer generation must be hitting that target now and the average number of deaths are going to go up every year until we reach the boomer peak.

    Replies: @Travis, @Mark G.

    What’s the graph of baby-boomer age in relation? What number are reaching 78 (average age of death in the US) and how did that change from 2017/18/19? The leading edge of the boomer generation must be hitting that target now and the average number of deaths are going to go up every year until we reach the boomer peak.

    The oldest Boomers are now in their seventies. Boomers haven’t led a particularly healthy lifestyle, with excessive drug and alcohol use in their youth and higher levels of obesity than previous generations as they got older. Close to 90% of Covid deaths have involved people who were overweight or obese. Boomers may end up being the first generation of Americans to live less long than their parents.

    Some commenters have expressed an interest in charts over a longer time period. Journalist Alex Berenson, who has been covering Covid, recently said U.S. deaths went up slowly from 2000 to 2008 but then there was a big jump by about three hundred thousand a year from 2009 to the present. Most likely this change happened because of the 2008 economic crash. The following recession seems to have hit a lot of people, especially the working class, really hard. Substance abuse increased and the opioid crisis really took off during this time period. Many people also no longer had enough money to purchase items needed for good health such as healthy food, medical care, a house in a safe neighborhood and so on. The extensive lockdowns this year have disproportionately hit this same working class and made an already bad situation for them even worse. This has probably helped to further increase deaths and also add additional deaths in the future as the economic after effects of the lockdowns and bailouts continue.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Mark G.


    The oldest Boomers are now in their seventies.
     
    74 to be specific, that demographic cohort starts in 1946. While I haven't done any serious analysis local or broader, I'm pretty sure in my region it's mostly people from the Silent Generation who are dying.

    I'll also add that in my region, for 150 miles in all directions hospitals are overfull with COVID-19 patients, we've edged into the new purple zone that was added because red was getting exceeded. Enough that people are getting substandard care, but not quite to the point of the system getting "overwhelmed."

  69. @utu
    Questions that should be asked by all those who object to countermeasures.

    (1) How many more deaths would we have if no countermeasures were taken? (2) Could smarter and less intrusive countermeasures produce similar or better results?

    (1) By looking at the very similar Nordic countries we keep the confounding variables to the minimum, so we can get a good idea how effective lockdowns can be by comparing Sweden with its Nordic neighbors.

    https://i.ibb.co/dMdwyfr/Graph1-4-NOrdic.png

    The factor of 10 lower fatality rate in Sweden's neighbors is due to lockdowns and more effective tracing and isolating ability. May we conclude that if the US opted for the Swedish approach, as many here advocate, we would have 2.5 million deaths by now? It is hard to say because we are not doing as well as Finland or Norway and on the other hand the US has higher effective density of population than Sweden and has higher occupancy per apartment in the citries than Sweden so it has lower natural social distance than Sweden. But there is no doubt that the death toll would be significantly higher if the Swedish model was adopted in the US.

    Effective tracing and isolating is the key to success but it can be effective only when the infection rate is low enough to be manageable. For this reason it often had to be preceded by a lockdown which is the fastest way to get the infection rate down to the manageable level. Japan avoided a lockdown because it already had in place an excellent system of tracing and isolating plus they used the universal masking to keep R0 close or below one. Sooner you start the lockdown the better off you are. Italian data show, what any reasonable person would expect, that number of deaths is directly proportional to the number of days from the first case to the start of lockdown. If on the East coast in NY and NJ lockdowns were two weeks earlier the first peak would be greatly attenuated and the lockdowns themselves would be shorter.

    (2) Many things could have been done differently starting in February and March. But there was no vision and no leadership. For instance it was possible still in February or even March to go for the complete elimination of the virus in the continental United States. It would require (1) Five week lockdown, (2) Strict border control with mandatory (no BS) quarantine, (2) Effective tracing and isolating and (4) Universal masking. By the end of May we would be getting back to normal providing that we would keep strict border control and mandatory (no BS) quarantine to prevent virus importation. New Zealand and Taiwan pretty much succeed in the virus elimination strategy. Taiwan's last death (out of 7) was on May 11.

    Instead we are in, what Karlin called, idiot's limbo. Still there is no leadership and no vision except there is now the hope that vaccination will get us out of the limbo.

    Would it be possible to isolate the most vulnerable population and let the majority conduct normal life? In theory yes. But nobody has tried it. Observed reduction of the IFR since the start of the epidemic in several countries suggests that the vulnerable are protected better now.

    Replies: @BenKenobi, @Mark G., @Bert, @peterike, @Anonymous Jew, @AnotherDad

    May we conclude that if the US opted for the Swedish approach, as many here advocate, we would have 2.5 million deaths by now?

    That’s a good start.

    Also, show us on the doll where the Swedes hurt you.

  70. European countries are also showing similar excess death rate percentages, about 15% higher

    But notably, when excess deaths are broken down by age group, it is nearly all over age 65, and especially over age 75

    And aside from the question of how many of these deaths are caused by lockdowns, loneliness, not doing needed medical care etc

    And how many of these deaths are just accelerations of deaths which would have taken place within 18 months or so anyway

    There is the question of hurling the world economy into catastrophe, with hundreds of millions now truly facing starvation

    That is worth it so some largely sick seniors might have lived a few months longer, plus dying in loneliness with their family unable to visit them?

  71. @Steve Sailer
    @Bill H

    Many in the future. Not many in early April.

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco, @Ryan Andrews, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    Right. That’s why we probably should not expect a trough of deaths over the next few years. We’ll likely be paying the price for these lockdowns for years, decades. It’s not just the skipped medical visits, but the social, economic, and educational fallout will exert a negative pull on life expectancy for most of the rest of the century. We’re seeing reports of schools where 40% of the grades are Fs. 40%.

    A couple observations:
    Why would the baseline assumption for deaths this year be lower than the last few years, as the graph suggests? The population is only getting larger and older, so I would assume the default assumption would be for the number of deaths to tick-up a bit every year.

    To me, the worst part of the pandemic hysteria is that at no point have “The Experts” bothered to offer a liming principle to their madness. What is the standard for when we have to mask-up, ban large public gatherings, etc? Maybe I’m out-of-touch, but imagining we had been given an accurate assessment of the situation beforehand—there’s going to be a new and highly contagious virus circulating for the next year or two and we expect the mortality rate to be 10-20% higher, the profile of the people dying will be the same as usual, but there will 10-20% more of them—I would think that the average person would react to that by saying, “Wow, that sucks,” and not give the matter a whole lot more thought. Of course we would hear about it in the news from time-to-time, and maybe we’d go out a bit less because of it, but I certainly would not expect the reaction to be anything like this.

    Now we know that a 10-20% increase in the mortality rate means that movie theaters, concert venues, and sporting areas must all be shuddered, and we must wear masks into the few public venues that are open, which may or may no include restaurants and schools. Well, ok, but what about when a bug comes around that causes a 5% increase in mortality? Do we continue as normal? Or do some of the measures we’re doing now kick-in again? Or do all of them kick-in? What about a 2% increase in mortality? Do we have to wear masks every flu season? Should we stop holding large indoor public gatherings during flu season, or maybe all together? What are the standards going forward?

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Ryan Andrews


    To me, the worst part of the pandemic hysteria is that at no point have “The Experts” bothered to offer a liming principle to their madness. What is the standard for when we have to mask-up, ban large public gatherings, etc?
     
    They're flying blind, and now we know for sure the truth of "Inside of many liberals is a fascist struggling to get out."

    But there is one valid limiting principle, which I see locally in my very red Red state region, and my Red state in general. The metric is hospital capacity, we edge into the new purple zone that's been added beyond red in this current third wave, and we tighten up, mostly by extorting people to take more care about not transmitting it, and leave the coercive measures up to counties and cities. Which remain limited in my immediate region.

    Replies: @Lurker

    , @Joseph Doaks
    @Ryan Andrews

    "What are the standards going forward?"

    This is really the key question. The CDC and the WHO are both highly politicized, and the university researchers are in the pay of Big Pharma. Where will sane and reasonable policies come from?

  72. @Travis
    @Louis Renault

    good point...the number of yearly deaths in the United States climbed significantly since 2010 when boomers started turning 65. Now they are turning 75 and we see another increase in deaths because so many boomers are getting older.

    Year - US deaths
    2000 - 2,403,351
    2005 - 2,448,017
    2010 - 2,418,435
    2015 - 2,712,630
    2018 - 2,839,205
    2020- 2,991,000

    why did deaths jump 300,000 in 2015 from 2010 ?
    looks similar to the increase in deaths when we compare 2015 to 2020

    with the dramatic reduction of smoking and better healthcare , why did so many more Americans die in 2015 compared to 2010 ? Did anyone investigate this ? More significant for the future of America is the dramatic drop in White births. From 3 million white births per year in the 1960's to under 2 million white births per year since 2015

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    So that’s why deaths climbed 40% from early March to the second week in April?

    • Replies: @RVS
    @Steve Sailer

    You misunderstand the point. All-cause mortality is up substantially since 2000. Apparently people are less healthy now than they were 20 years ago, and more susceptible to dying from a viral infection. A possible explanation is the epidemic of metabolic disorder in older people, which is revealed in surging rates of obesity and diabetes.

    , @Travis
    @Steve Sailer

    The death rate climbed in March and April mostly due to the first wave of COVID, but a significant number of the excess deaths this year are due to the lockdowns and from the rapidly aging baby boomers turning 75 this year. We have millions more elderly people today than 5 years ago.

    Year - 65-and-older population
    2000 - 35 million
    2010 - 40 million
    2020 - 54 million

    The dramatic growth in the elderly population since 2010 will result in more deaths each year. Excess deaths cannot be calculated by comparing 2020 to 2018. They need to age-adjust the data. https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/65-older-population-grows.html

    Replies: @Louis Renault

    , @MGB
    @Steve Sailer

    You have no idea why there are as many deaths this year, so far. None. But to imply that the lockdowns have had no impact on deaths of despair is another sign of your generational narcissism. Instead of myopic bar graphs, why don't you provide us with some verifiable statistics for Covid deaths. Not deaths with Covid. Not deaths with an accompanying PCR test proving the existence of viral debris in an 80-year old nursing home resident with a history of congestive heart failure and alzheimer's. There are no such statistics as far as I know. And just as important, no one seems interested in finding out why the most advanced country in the world when it comes to medical science cannot come up with a uniform policy on masking, transmission (or not) of the virus by asymptomatic v. symptomatic infected. (Fauci alone has changed his tune several times on these matters, never mind the fact that he is regularly seen not wearing a mask in public after advising everyone else to wear one.) I am not a virus denier, however I am humble enough to know that I don't know exactly what is going on, and a couple of bar graphs, or references to the '12%' as proof of the seriousness of the virus and illness is disingenuous at best. (You know why the US has 4% of the world population, while it has almost 20% of reported Covid deaths? No, you don't know. No one does. I suspect it has to do with the piss poor state of health of Americans, and the way we count Covid deaths, but that's just a guess based on co-morbidity statistics and other factors.) And why does the average age of a Covid decedent seem to be consistent with life expectancy statistics? The BBC, for example, reported in October that for Scotland that "the age profile for those dying with Covid was significantly older than that for deaths in general." In my state, the average age of a Covid reported death is equal to the average life expectancy. Wouldn't it make sense that there are more deaths this year because, as others have pointed out, the Boomers (the pig in the birth rate python) are starting to approach their average life expectancy? I don't know, and neither do you, but you at any rate don't seem interested in the question.

    It is an unappealing characteristic of the science types who insist that something must be done, when in fact they still have no idea what they are dealing with. And the condescending attitude towards those who do deny the existence of or seriousness of the virus is nauseating. When people are constantly lied to, after a while they begin to make up their own narratives to deal with what is going on. Why am I losing my job while all these smug yuppies are still making their comfortable six figures working in their pyjamas at their computer at home? Why does the stock market seem to have no connection to the economy as a whole during this crisis? Why is my elderly mother being shut up in a medical prison for the last months of her life, dying surrounded by strangers in hazmat suits? Trump is a buffoon but to lay blame at his feet for 'mass murder' is ludicrous, and is just part of the spoiled sportery of liberal asses who cannot get over the fact that their preferred candidate lost, or that anyone without a master's degree might disagree with their perspective on the world.

    , @Anon
    @Steve Sailer

    You have done a bangup job of dodging all the very logical and reasonable points levied against you in this comment section, you fucking hack. Great work. The coof really has made like half the internet punditry class lose their goddamn mind.

  73. @HA
    @anonimo11

    "we can only be horrified about what happened in this country in winter 2017-2018... The area under that broader peak is in fact quite similar or exceeding the covid-19 first peak."

    If you're blind or crazy or both, then yeah. Otherwise, no.

    "You repeat this analysis for Sweden data, which has excellent records, and you can see that in Sweden with no lockdowns 2020 was the fifth worst winter since 1988."

    "No lockdowns"? As in people mostly being willing to isolate when sick because of the generous government funded sick-leave that paid them for doing so? And to avoid theatres and restaurants because they still trust their governmental health experts as opposed to sending them death threats?

    OK, fine, if you want a socialized medical system that does what Sweden does, then I guess that might work (though even in Sweden it worked badly for the not-like-Canada segment of the population, and it worked REALLY badly for the third-world immigrants taking care of the residents of nursing homes. Those were mostly shift-workers and those jobs don't get that cushy government-paid sick-leave, so if they get the sniffles and feel feverish, they just decide to power through as opposed to losing out on a shift regardless of how many grandmas die.)

    In other words, scratch that -- it actually wouldn't work at all in the vast not-like-Canada portions of the US that took the biggest COVID hits.

    Besides, given how much worse Sweden did than its neighbors, that was at best going to be an uphill battle.

    Replies: @anonimo11, @RichardTaylor

    There are important voices that agree with you. This woman gets it:

    • Agree: Marco de Wit
    • Replies: @Old Prude
    @RichardTaylor

    What is she so worked up about? It’s just the flu, honey. (I wonder how many cooties she got on those people).

    , @HA
    @RichardTaylor

    "There are important voices that agree with you."

    You really think that the anti-maskers are going to win the viral video sympathy wars? Let's just say that they've got a lot of catching up to do.

    But then, you're the same expert who told us that far fewer than 5,000 would die from this thing once it was over and done with. Let's check the above graph and see how that prediction played out.

    , @Achmed E. Newman
    @RichardTaylor

    It'll be OK. Those germs can't cross double yellow lane markers. I learned that from Dr. Fauci.

  74. @utu
    @vhrm

    "This article concurs on the shutdowns" - This might be faith based science. Shouldn't you be cautious about the book titled:

    The Price of Panic: How the Tyranny of Experts Turned a Pandemic into a Catastrophe

    written by Jay W. Richards who is "analytic theologian and intelligent design and free market advocate"

    Douglas Axe who authored "Undeniable: How Biology Confirms Our Intuition That Life Is Designed"

    blogger William M. Briggs with entries like "The Politicization Of Coronadoom", "The Cult Of The Mask: Coronavirus", "Bend Over And Take The Experimental Vaccine, Or Be Kicked Out Of Society"

    Do you think these men can approach the subject objectively w/o bringing their biases?

    Replies: @vhrm

    You may have a point there; people of that tone don’t have the highest credibility.

    However the point still stands. I first noticed it when that @res was around in the spring and we were looking at some graphs related to the first wave lockdowns. But it’s been the same since then: i haven’t seen any graph of new cases/day or deaths/day that’s shown any clear “signal” from the government lockdowns even at a lag.

    Eh, que sera sera. At this point whether it dies down in by itself in the next month or two or because of vaccine in the months after that it’ll be done with.. and hopefully some research gets done on this stuff before Sars-cov-3 (and i remember to buy some powered respirators once the bruhaha dies down)

    • Replies: @utu
    @vhrm

    Here is a graph based on data from Italy. Each day of delay to lockdown increases death toll by 8/100k.

    https://i.ibb.co/rZFpQC8/Silverio-Nov2020.png

    I have looked at some papers that come to conclusion that lockdowns do not work and all of them have some fatal flaw. The well know one published in Lancet by Canadian anesthesiologists (why anesthesiologists?) takes data from 50 countries that are very different and never should have been put together if you can't remove influence of confounding variables that are much stronger than the lockdown effects.

    This paper should have never been accepted for publication


    https://thefatemperor.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/1.-LANCET-LOCKDOWN-NO-MORTALITY-BENEFIT-A-country-level-analysis-measuring-the-impact-of-government-actions.pdf
    A country level analysis measuring the impact of government actions, country preparedness and socioeconomic factors on COVID-19 mortality and related health outcomes
    Rabail Chaudhrya, George Dranitsarisb, Talha Mubashirc, Justyna Bartoszkoa, Sheila Riazia
     
    but obviously it gets mileage among the covid skeptics and anti-lockdown advocates. Debunking each paper like that on its internal data and methodology is like trying to debunk each papers on free energy and perpetual motion w/o invoking the law of energy conservation and the second law of thermodynamics.

    It is OK to question lockdowns for their costs but any claims that a lockdown in a finite time period does not reduce mortality should be rejected out of hand just like the perpetual motion and free energy papers are rejected out of hand.

    Replies: @Cloudbuster, @Polynikes

    , @Steve Sailer
    @vhrm

    NYC never locked down its subway but ridership still dropped 90%. It's almost as if people make decisions about what's in their individual best interest...

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @prosa123, @stillCARealist, @Redman

  75. @Anonymous
    I live in a city with millions. All this would be more believable if I knew of a single person who died from it. LOL

    Yeah a few grandpas in their late 70s got sick but got over it.

    But I’m sure there’s an uptick, what you’d expect with kind of a bad bug going around. It happens. No reason to destroy the country. And overall, I’m sorry, but this was no biggie.

    Replies: @PiltdownMan, @dataBro, @Lurker, @My SIMPLE Pseudonymic Handle, @Occasional lurker

    I knew three people who died of Covid-19. One was a relative by marriage, in his early 60s, another, a college friend about the same age, and the third, a 93 year old father of another college buddy. All were well, and had no medical issues or chronic conditions prior to their illness.

    • Agree: AndrewR
    • Replies: @Buck Ransom
    @PiltdownMan

    My condolences to your college friend who lost his father tragically and unexpectedly at the age of 93. I wonder if he was one of those in a New York nursing home last spring. In any case, his family can take comfort knowing that the fine old fellow was still able to vote, possibly 2 or 3 times, for Joe Biden in November.

    Replies: @PiltdownMan, @AndrewR

    , @Old Prude
    @PiltdownMan

    I know many people who have gotten COVID. I don’t know one who had anything worse than the flu, much less died. Over the same time I know at least three people who died from non COVID.

    When will the hysteria stop so we can get on with living?

    Replies: @PiltdownMan

    , @Hippopotamusdrome
    @PiltdownMan

    You do know entering a hospital for any reason you automatically get tested, and if poz and if you subsequently die for any reason they write it up Covid and get paid an extra 20% from the CARES Act?

    Do you happen to know if it was a PCR test, and if so, do you know the number of cycles they used?

  76. @utu
    Questions that should be asked by all those who object to countermeasures.

    (1) How many more deaths would we have if no countermeasures were taken? (2) Could smarter and less intrusive countermeasures produce similar or better results?

    (1) By looking at the very similar Nordic countries we keep the confounding variables to the minimum, so we can get a good idea how effective lockdowns can be by comparing Sweden with its Nordic neighbors.

    https://i.ibb.co/dMdwyfr/Graph1-4-NOrdic.png

    The factor of 10 lower fatality rate in Sweden's neighbors is due to lockdowns and more effective tracing and isolating ability. May we conclude that if the US opted for the Swedish approach, as many here advocate, we would have 2.5 million deaths by now? It is hard to say because we are not doing as well as Finland or Norway and on the other hand the US has higher effective density of population than Sweden and has higher occupancy per apartment in the citries than Sweden so it has lower natural social distance than Sweden. But there is no doubt that the death toll would be significantly higher if the Swedish model was adopted in the US.

    Effective tracing and isolating is the key to success but it can be effective only when the infection rate is low enough to be manageable. For this reason it often had to be preceded by a lockdown which is the fastest way to get the infection rate down to the manageable level. Japan avoided a lockdown because it already had in place an excellent system of tracing and isolating plus they used the universal masking to keep R0 close or below one. Sooner you start the lockdown the better off you are. Italian data show, what any reasonable person would expect, that number of deaths is directly proportional to the number of days from the first case to the start of lockdown. If on the East coast in NY and NJ lockdowns were two weeks earlier the first peak would be greatly attenuated and the lockdowns themselves would be shorter.

    (2) Many things could have been done differently starting in February and March. But there was no vision and no leadership. For instance it was possible still in February or even March to go for the complete elimination of the virus in the continental United States. It would require (1) Five week lockdown, (2) Strict border control with mandatory (no BS) quarantine, (2) Effective tracing and isolating and (4) Universal masking. By the end of May we would be getting back to normal providing that we would keep strict border control and mandatory (no BS) quarantine to prevent virus importation. New Zealand and Taiwan pretty much succeed in the virus elimination strategy. Taiwan's last death (out of 7) was on May 11.

    Instead we are in, what Karlin called, idiot's limbo. Still there is no leadership and no vision except there is now the hope that vaccination will get us out of the limbo.

    Would it be possible to isolate the most vulnerable population and let the majority conduct normal life? In theory yes. But nobody has tried it. Observed reduction of the IFR since the start of the epidemic in several countries suggests that the vulnerable are protected better now.

    Replies: @BenKenobi, @Mark G., @Bert, @peterike, @Anonymous Jew, @AnotherDad

    The factor of 10 lower fatality rate in Sweden’s neighbors is due to lockdowns and more effective tracing and isolating ability.

    Sweden has a larger number of immigrants than nearby Scandinavian countries. The police have little control in some of the large immigrant areas. Government officials there have said privately one reason lockdowns were not instituted was because they could not be successfully enforced in immigrant areas.

    Many of these immigrants in Sweden are unemployable because of low IQ and being unable to follow directions due to not understanding the native language. The Swedish government set up a government program to find jobs for these unemployable immigrants and gave many of them jobs working in nursing homes. This was a bad idea. It led to higher levels of deaths in nursing homes there.

    In the most recent wave of cases, Sweden has had a lower death rate than several other European countries that had hard lockdowns in the Spring. The countries that locked down hard earlier may have just spread some of their deaths over a longer period of time and shifted some deaths to a later point in time.

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    @Mark G.

    The Germans speaking (the bigger) part of Switzerland is interesting. The numbers there get closer to Sweden every day. The two hard data points - numbers of excess deaths and the number of intensive care hospital beds did not show any bigger irregularities. The most striking fact: In the firsts half of 2020 there were fewer people on a ventilator than in the first half of 20119.

    Now - Geman politicians make a big deal of the fact, that the Covid-statistics differ widely if compared to Switzerland. The astonishing thing is: Nobody, not a single political party in Switzerland, be it right, left or in the middle, does follow this argument. Everybody is just fine, if a bit under stress, of course.

    The Swiss like it, that there is no lockdown and that normal life persues by and large.
    They also like, that their economy has not suffered a hard hit so far.

    Are the elderly in Switzerland opposed to that policy (the ones who - as the only group, do does indeed face a 20% higher death)? - Not at all.

    , @utu
    @Mark G.

    The meme blaming it on immigrants is the Swedish cope initially meant for liberal Swedes who are ticked off that countries they historically were looking down upon like Finland and Norway and Denmark that they have historical animosity with did 10 times better than them. The psychological essence of the meme is : We were bad because we are better (accepting immigrants unlike the people we look down upon).

    The other meme used by the butthurt Swedes is that of the "dry tinder" that supposedly in recent years during seasonal flues mortality was lower in Sweden than, say in Finland. Again the meme has the same psychologically consoling content: We are bad because we are so good (in protecting our old people in the past flu epidemics).

    Both meme get traction among the rightoids who peppered them up with the IQism.

    And one more thing, Swedish officials in the beginning were claiming that they could not have lockdown because their constitution prohibits putting restrictions on free movements of citizens. Some people ate it up because it so noble and lofty.

    Denmark has comparable fraction of foreign born residents (14%) to Sweden while Norway has higher fraction (16%) than Sweden.

    Replies: @Mark G., @Mr. Anon

    , @LondonBob
    @Mark G.

    Sweden has their half term break in the spring later than their Scandi neighbours, skiing in the Alps is very popular so it got seeded in Stockholm in a way it didn't elsewhere.

    Afraid Steve referencing Carl Bergstrom was a low point. No doubt covid 19 is a nasty bug but it came and went very quickly, the question was whether there was much you could do and how proportionate was the response.

    I know dozens of people of various ages who had it and they have all been fine, except for a South Asian lady who still hasn't got her sense of smell back after getting it in the spring, before a lockdown was imposed in London.

  77. Anonymous[307] • Disclaimer says:

    I have to ask this again: why is death automatically seen as bad among the rational crowd here? What is the actual economic cost? As far as I know even among all sides of this debate there can be agreed on the notion that people are dying as a result of actions and inactions taken thereupon. Is it actually bad that these people perished? The weak, the infirm, the unhealthy and diseased, isn’t that who met a timely demise? The anguish can be converted into fervor for war with one’s various enemies: the globalists, the Chinese, and, yes, the man Trump himself. Death seems a great business.

  78. @Alden
    @Farenheit

    Not just octogenarians, but octogenarians with cancer, COPD, severe cardiovascular problems and other conditions. That’s why nursing home deaths were so high.

    I don’t know one person who had covid. We’re old and all our friends and many relatives are old. Hundreds of tenants, clients and employees, no covid. Big extended family, no covid no one in this big family knows anyone who had covid

    No one. I know knows anyone who had covid.

    Replies: @Hhsiii

    I had it, my niece had it, my brother-in-law had it. He had it the worst but he’s fine now. I barely noticed it.

    My 4 year old’s class just got put on remote for two weeks, 2 days after starting back up. Someone in the class tested positive. We think a teacher but they won’t say. My wife is worried, of course. She just kicked me to the couch for coughing. And she keeps checking the little one. She says he’s stopped up, stuffy nose. I said he always has a stuffy nose, comes with kids going to school.

    I’ve had some colleagues (no one I really knew) die. It doesn’t seem to affect kids much even if a teacher gets it. And yes mostly the old and people with comorbidities. And I feel for people in affected businesses. It sucks. Hopefully just a few more months to go. One last push.

    You take care now. Good to hear your circle is unaffected.

  79. @Kaz
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Deaths aren't the only thing.

    Hospital systems are overwhelmed. This is with a 'soft' lockdown.

    The people who don't die can face debilitating effects, no understanding of long term effects.

    Lots of things to consider aside from simple deaths. It's just the easiest thing to measure.

    Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country, @RichardTaylor, @Mr. Anon, @epebble, @Bill Jones, @JR Ewing

    Hospital systems are overwhelmed. This is with a ‘soft’ lockdown.

    This is a lie
    Dept of Health and Human Services numbers
    Number Percentage (%)
    Inpatient Beds Occupied (All Patients) 537,196 75.39
    Inpatient Beds Occupied (COVID-19 Patients) 105,570 14.82
    ICU Beds Occupied (All Patients) 67,665 63.57

    Unz removes formatting. But you can get your very own copy here.
    https://protect-public.hhs.gov/pages/hospital-capacity

    I found it via
    https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/its-panic-porn-clickbait-media-scare-stories-about-hospitals-are-misleading

    The line about the NYT lies is hardly surprising.

    Hospitals are in the business of filling beds not keeping them empty. Those numbers are low.

    • Agree: Marco de Wit
  80. Steve, I wholeheartedly recommend you read this Facebook post from Mike Rowe (of Dirty Jobs fame) Mike points to a Joe Rogan interview with Dr. Michael Osterholm.
    Even watched in the rearview mirror, Dr. Osterholm’s predictions still seems quite convincing:

    Dr. Osterholm is the Director of Infectious Disease Research and Policy. This is the same epidemiologist who ten years ago, predicted a coronavirus would come from China and turn our country upside down. In his book “Deadliest Enemies,” he anticipated the utterly irresponsible way in which the media would report on the situation, the completely opportunistic and shamelessly political way our leaders would likely react, and the unprecedented chaos and confusion that would arise from all the mixed messages from the medical community.

    …and further on:

    I say all of this because Dr. Osterholm publicly predicted – in early March – that we could conservatively see over 100 million COVID cases in this country, with a very strong possibility of 480,000 fatalities – even if we successfully “flattened the curve.”

    It took me a few weeks to accept this scenario, because 480,000 fatalities is a frightening number, and lot of other experts were saying lots of conflicting things. But eventually, I came to the conclusion that Dr. Osterholm was probably correct, and quickly navigated the four stages of grief that usually precede acceptance – denial, anger, bargaining, and depression. By late April, I had come to accept Dr. Osterholm’s predictions as a matter of fact. Since then, I’ve had three full months to come to terms with the fact that, a) I am probably going to get COVID-19 at some point, b), I am almost certainly going to survive it, and c), I might very well give it to someone else.

    https://www.facebook.com/TheRealMikeRowe/posts/3445993122077473

  81. It is all tiresome, this counting of deaths, lockdowns,…..

    1. COVID-19 (or C-Chan/CC) is a serious influenza. It kills, perhaps, 3 times more people than any ordinary flue. People, not infrequently, die in agony.

    2. usual talk about “patients with prior conditions” is meaningless. Now, virtually all people have some “conditions”, thanks to the advancement of medicine. 100 or 200 years ago, perhaps 30-50% of the population would not be alive. So, the underlying conditions meme is a crap.

    3. medical personnel is highly affected, unlike during other flues.

    4. many CC people seem to suffer prolonged long-term effects after recovery: fatigue, chest pain, depression, painful joints, headaches, impotence, sometimes chronic fatigue syndrome, muscle pain, brain fog, dizziness, ….

    5. it looks like, judging from reliable data, that even harshest measures either don’t work at all, or do work, temporarily, due to complete paralysis of a society. I would say that CC mostly, with perhaps some exceptions, is random- it kills, then dies down of itself, and then, it is, probably, resurrected after some time, probably mutated.

    6. masks, generally, don’t work. Only physical distance works.

    7. one cannot rely on data from China, Africa & most Latin America.

    So- what is to be done?

    What most countries do already.

    If not, to save economy, life & everything, any serious country should consider life-changing measures:

    1. build instantly 5-10 new CC hospitals in any suspect area.

    2. organize quick education of medical personnel at that, operating level & give them significantly higher wages

    3. continue life as usual in most areas that matter (manufacturing, food production, the military,..)

    4. pass national laws enabling quick & easy euthanasia for all CC patients needing intubation, if necessary.

    5. since panem & circenses has always been the law of the land, continue with entertainment for the masses.

    6. work hard on medicines, vaccines, treatment etc.

    7. work of keeping freedom & security, as much as possible, in these circumstances. Strongly reject proposals by anthill east Asian societies (China, Japan).

    So, you’ll preserve a current way of life, with a bit of uber- Belgium/Netherlands measures (euthanasia).

    • Thanks: Joseph Doaks
    • Replies: @HA
    @Bardon Kaldian

    "6. masks, generally, don’t work. Only physical distance works."

    It's true that physical distance (and I don't mean just the paltry 6 feet we keep pretending is adequate) is preferable to masks, but so far, the evidence indicates that masks do indeed help both in limiting the transmission and also the severity of the disease for those who still catch it despite the maskx.

    Plus, if agreeing to wear mask allows us to witness conniptions like these, then my only gripe is that masks should always be handed out with a side of popcorn.

  82. @Kyle
    The fear with covid 19 was that it was going to be like the flu. It’s here forever, it doesn’t confer long lasting immunity, and there are a wave of die offs every year. Once the virus got out into the wild, the toothpaste was out of the tube. That was the worst cast scenario. I’m not an epidemiologist and I have no access to any data. One of you geniuses should enlighten me, how many people who have had Covid 19 have been re infected, and on average how long does the immunity last, if any? Adjacently how long does the immunity from the vaccine last? Those are the only important questions. The lockdowns and holding kids out of school were always asinine. The burden of proof is on you to prove that shutting down my work for 6 weeks and holding kids out of school accomplished anything. Of course there are a lot of excess deaths. Look at how many excess flu deaths there were in 2018, a there’s a vaccine for that. And guess what, not everyone is going to take the COVID-19 vaccine either, so there will probably always be a bunch of excess deaths from it every winter... unless of course this is like Sars 1 and it confers a fairly long lasting immunity. I don’t think that possibility has been disproven. In that case the virus will probably burn itself to an extent, but still always be around and dangerous. I was locked down for 6 weeks, That can’t happen again because if it did somebody would actually kidnap the governess and heads would roll. If I was over 30 I probably would be fearful of covid and that’s perfectly reasonable. If you’re afraid of covid there’s no reason for you to ever leave your house, you can order in food, and essential workers will keep the water running and the lights on. Of course there are excess deaths. That’s the conflict inherent to COVID-19 politics, it’s easy to frame it as Us versus Them. Are We willing to sacrifice Our quality of life years for Your quality of life years? Rational, self interested human beings should answer no to that question. Boomers still answer no to that question, and good for them. But Gen X and younger don’t seem to be rational nor self interested.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Travis

    One of you geniuses should enlighten me, how many people who have had Covid 19 have been re infected, and on average how long does the immunity last, if any?

    When you factor in that our immune systems are wild and crazy, but mostly in a good way, effectively no one has been reinfected. Novel virus being novel, we only have evidence the immunity lasts as long as it’s been out there in large numbers. Based on serological (blood) testing, it shows every sign of producing a life-long immunity, which may be the rule rather than an exception like the flu.

    The theory behind that is based on what our immune systems latch onto to provide long term immunity, is it “conserved,” something that must stay more or less the same or “the virus won’t virus,” or is it like the flu, something that can change enough that previous immune system responses won’t help (much) when it changes a lot? So the fact that fairly recent serological study of survivors of the 1918-9 flu pandemic still are ready to stop that particular strain doesn’t help them (much) with significantly different H1N1 strains today, let alone the H3N2 from Asia in the late 1960.

    TL;DR: we have every reason to believe infections and vaccines that invoke the adaptive immune system will provide life long immunity, as I gather is true for every virus we vaccine against except for the flu.

    Extra credit: we have a couple of advantages with SARS-CoV-2 that means its less likely to mutate to something that’s again novel, a unique among RNA viruses proofreading mechanism, and it’s awfully well adapted to humans.

    • Replies: @Anon
    @That Would Be Telling

    What about choosing a vaccine for our elderly?

    If you had the choice between the live-attenuated at 70% effectiveness or the mRNA at 90% for an over 80 yr old, which would be better?

    And if you had the choice, how soon/late would you get the shot? Thank you in advance.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  83. @nsa
    The leading scholar on the Influenza Pandemic of 1918, Alfred Crosby (America's Forgotten Pandemic), used a simple methodology to accurately estimate pandemic deaths. He subtracted the total USA deaths in 1917 from the total USA deaths in 1918, and came up with 600,000 excess deaths in 1918 in a population of about 100 million. So total 2020 deaths less total 2019 deaths should result in a good estimate of the number of deaths attributable to the wu-wu virus in 2020. It is interesting to note that the Great Influenza of 1918 according to the author, Barry, probably started in Haskell County, Kansas, and was spread around the world knowingly by Woodie Wilson's war effort, ultimately killing at least 50 million. US propagandists at the time called it the Spanish Flu to deflect blame. History can be quite malleable. Wiki has recently been edited to claim the 1918 pandemic originated in.....you guessed it........everyone's favorite whipping boy.....China.

    Replies: @Gordo

    The 1918 flu was sequenced as coming from China spread by Chinese labour battalions working behind the Western Front.

  84. I am not sure whether this will be considered off-topic, but I have seen some commenters dealing with related issues, so maybe they will find it interesting.

    ‘Can we predict the severe course of COVID-19 – a systematic review and meta-analysis of indicators of clinical outcome?’
    by Stephan Katzenschlager et al.
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.09.20228858v1.full.pdf

    Summary:
    “In this systematic review we meta-analyzed 88 articles for risk factors of ICU admission and mortality in COVID-19. We found age, cerebrovascular disease, CRP, LDH and cTnI are the most important risk-factors for ICU admission or mortality.”

    CRP = C-reactive protein
    LDH = lactate dehydrogenase
    cTnI = cardiac troponin I

  85. @Mark G.
    @Louis Renault


    What’s the graph of baby-boomer age in relation? What number are reaching 78 (average age of death in the US) and how did that change from 2017/18/19? The leading edge of the boomer generation must be hitting that target now and the average number of deaths are going to go up every year until we reach the boomer peak.
     
    The oldest Boomers are now in their seventies. Boomers haven't led a particularly healthy lifestyle, with excessive drug and alcohol use in their youth and higher levels of obesity than previous generations as they got older. Close to 90% of Covid deaths have involved people who were overweight or obese. Boomers may end up being the first generation of Americans to live less long than their parents.

    Some commenters have expressed an interest in charts over a longer time period. Journalist Alex Berenson, who has been covering Covid, recently said U.S. deaths went up slowly from 2000 to 2008 but then there was a big jump by about three hundred thousand a year from 2009 to the present. Most likely this change happened because of the 2008 economic crash. The following recession seems to have hit a lot of people, especially the working class, really hard. Substance abuse increased and the opioid crisis really took off during this time period. Many people also no longer had enough money to purchase items needed for good health such as healthy food, medical care, a house in a safe neighborhood and so on. The extensive lockdowns this year have disproportionately hit this same working class and made an already bad situation for them even worse. This has probably helped to further increase deaths and also add additional deaths in the future as the economic after effects of the lockdowns and bailouts continue.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    The oldest Boomers are now in their seventies.

    74 to be specific, that demographic cohort starts in 1946. While I haven’t done any serious analysis local or broader, I’m pretty sure in my region it’s mostly people from the Silent Generation who are dying.

    I’ll also add that in my region, for 150 miles in all directions hospitals are overfull with COVID-19 patients, we’ve edged into the new purple zone that was added because red was getting exceeded. Enough that people are getting substandard care, but not quite to the point of the system getting “overwhelmed.”

  86. @vhrm
    @utu

    You may have a point there; people of that tone don't have the highest credibility.

    However the point still stands. I first noticed it when that @res was around in the spring and we were looking at some graphs related to the first wave lockdowns. But it's been the same since then: i haven't seen any graph of new cases/day or deaths/day that's shown any clear "signal" from the government lockdowns even at a lag.

    Eh, que sera sera. At this point whether it dies down in by itself in the next month or two or because of vaccine in the months after that it'll be done with.. and hopefully some research gets done on this stuff before Sars-cov-3 (and i remember to buy some powered respirators once the bruhaha dies down)

    Replies: @utu, @Steve Sailer

    Here is a graph based on data from Italy. Each day of delay to lockdown increases death toll by 8/100k.

    I have looked at some papers that come to conclusion that lockdowns do not work and all of them have some fatal flaw. The well know one published in Lancet by Canadian anesthesiologists (why anesthesiologists?) takes data from 50 countries that are very different and never should have been put together if you can’t remove influence of confounding variables that are much stronger than the lockdown effects.

    This paper should have never been accepted for publication

    https://thefatemperor.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/1.-LANCET-LOCKDOWN-NO-MORTALITY-BENEFIT-A-country-level-analysis-measuring-the-impact-of-government-actions.pdf
    A country level analysis measuring the impact of government actions, country preparedness and socioeconomic factors on COVID-19 mortality and related health outcomes
    Rabail Chaudhrya, George Dranitsarisb, Talha Mubashirc, Justyna Bartoszkoa, Sheila Riazia

    but obviously it gets mileage among the covid skeptics and anti-lockdown advocates. Debunking each paper like that on its internal data and methodology is like trying to debunk each papers on free energy and perpetual motion w/o invoking the law of energy conservation and the second law of thermodynamics.

    It is OK to question lockdowns for their costs but any claims that a lockdown in a finite time period does not reduce mortality should be rejected out of hand just like the perpetual motion and free energy papers are rejected out of hand.

    • Replies: @Cloudbuster
    @utu

    That graph has so many confounding data points, it is worthless.

    Replies: @utu

    , @Polynikes
    @utu


    but any claims that a lockdown in a finite time period does not reduce mortality should be rejected out of hand
     
    Starting with a conclusion and working your data backwards. Science!

    You’re now qualified to work at the cdc.
  87. @Steve Sailer
    @Bill H

    Many in the future. Not many in early April.

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco, @Ryan Andrews, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    Is it not reasonable to expect those second and third peaks to include deaths caused by lockdown? Especially the third peak: I’m thinking aggressive tumours that would’ve been picked by routine screenings earlier in the year would’ve started killing people by now.

  88. @Mark G.
    @utu


    The factor of 10 lower fatality rate in Sweden’s neighbors is due to lockdowns and more effective tracing and isolating ability.
     
    Sweden has a larger number of immigrants than nearby Scandinavian countries. The police have little control in some of the large immigrant areas. Government officials there have said privately one reason lockdowns were not instituted was because they could not be successfully enforced in immigrant areas.

    Many of these immigrants in Sweden are unemployable because of low IQ and being unable to follow directions due to not understanding the native language. The Swedish government set up a government program to find jobs for these unemployable immigrants and gave many of them jobs working in nursing homes. This was a bad idea. It led to higher levels of deaths in nursing homes there.

    In the most recent wave of cases, Sweden has had a lower death rate than several other European countries that had hard lockdowns in the Spring. The countries that locked down hard earlier may have just spread some of their deaths over a longer period of time and shifted some deaths to a later point in time.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief, @utu, @LondonBob

    The Germans speaking (the bigger) part of Switzerland is interesting. The numbers there get closer to Sweden every day. The two hard data points – numbers of excess deaths and the number of intensive care hospital beds did not show any bigger irregularities. The most striking fact: In the firsts half of 2020 there were fewer people on a ventilator than in the first half of 20119.

    Now – Geman politicians make a big deal of the fact, that the Covid-statistics differ widely if compared to Switzerland. The astonishing thing is: Nobody, not a single political party in Switzerland, be it right, left or in the middle, does follow this argument. Everybody is just fine, if a bit under stress, of course.

    The Swiss like it, that there is no lockdown and that normal life persues by and large.
    They also like, that their economy has not suffered a hard hit so far.

    Are the elderly in Switzerland opposed to that policy (the ones who – as the only group, do does indeed face a 20% higher death)? – Not at all.

    • Thanks: LondonBob
  89. @Ryan Andrews
    @Steve Sailer

    Right. That's why we probably should not expect a trough of deaths over the next few years. We'll likely be paying the price for these lockdowns for years, decades. It's not just the skipped medical visits, but the social, economic, and educational fallout will exert a negative pull on life expectancy for most of the rest of the century. We're seeing reports of schools where 40% of the grades are Fs. 40%.

    A couple observations:
    Why would the baseline assumption for deaths this year be lower than the last few years, as the graph suggests? The population is only getting larger and older, so I would assume the default assumption would be for the number of deaths to tick-up a bit every year.

    To me, the worst part of the pandemic hysteria is that at no point have "The Experts" bothered to offer a liming principle to their madness. What is the standard for when we have to mask-up, ban large public gatherings, etc? Maybe I'm out-of-touch, but imagining we had been given an accurate assessment of the situation beforehand—there's going to be a new and highly contagious virus circulating for the next year or two and we expect the mortality rate to be 10-20% higher, the profile of the people dying will be the same as usual, but there will 10-20% more of them—I would think that the average person would react to that by saying, "Wow, that sucks," and not give the matter a whole lot more thought. Of course we would hear about it in the news from time-to-time, and maybe we'd go out a bit less because of it, but I certainly would not expect the reaction to be anything like this.

    Now we know that a 10-20% increase in the mortality rate means that movie theaters, concert venues, and sporting areas must all be shuddered, and we must wear masks into the few public venues that are open, which may or may no include restaurants and schools. Well, ok, but what about when a bug comes around that causes a 5% increase in mortality? Do we continue as normal? Or do some of the measures we're doing now kick-in again? Or do all of them kick-in? What about a 2% increase in mortality? Do we have to wear masks every flu season? Should we stop holding large indoor public gatherings during flu season, or maybe all together? What are the standards going forward?

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Joseph Doaks

    To me, the worst part of the pandemic hysteria is that at no point have “The Experts” bothered to offer a liming principle to their madness. What is the standard for when we have to mask-up, ban large public gatherings, etc?

    They’re flying blind, and now we know for sure the truth of “Inside of many liberals is a fascist struggling to get out.”

    But there is one valid limiting principle, which I see locally in my very red Red state region, and my Red state in general. The metric is hospital capacity, we edge into the new purple zone that’s been added beyond red in this current third wave, and we tighten up, mostly by extorting people to take more care about not transmitting it, and leave the coercive measures up to counties and cities. Which remain limited in my immediate region.

    • Agree: vhrm
    • Replies: @Lurker
    @That Would Be Telling


    Inside of many liberals is a fascist struggling to get out.
     
    Inside of many liberals is a Stalinist struggling to get out.
  90. @Steve Sailer
    @Anon

    Clearly, being terrified of getting a vaccine shot indicates heaping quantities of the Right Stuff.

    Replies: @the one they call Desanex, @Chrisnonymous, @SunBakedSuburb, @Federalist, @MB

    Steve “COWID-19” Sailer sez:

    “If you won’t take the shot, you’re a coward!”
    Black Pot was with Brillo-pad scoured;
    “I’m bright shiny metal,”
    Said Pot to friend Kettle,
    “You’re black!” Their relationship soured.

    • LOL: Mike Tre
    • Replies: @Dutch Boy
    @the one they call Desanex

    Really, who would be be concerned about getting an experimental vaccine for a disease that is of no consequence to the large majority? Only cowardice could explain such an attitude!

  91. Funny, Social Security recipient data doesn’t show these increases in deaths, Market Ticker has analyzed this, yet the vast majority of people dying from Covid are over 70…I smell a rat…
    And we personally know 20+ people who have had actual Covid cases, and none of them were even hospitalized, while most had very light symptoms…

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @pyrrhus


    Funny, Social Security recipient data doesn’t show these increases in deaths, Market Ticker has analyzed this, yet the vast majority of people dying from Covid are over 70…I smell a rat…
    And we personally know 20+ people who have had actual Covid cases, and none of them were even hospitalized, while most had very light symptoms…
     
    How many of those dying were illegal aliens? Those people who "live in the shadows" to use the hackneyed phrase. Maybe the large COVID death rate in America is partly due to us not only having our own COVID epidemic, but a few other country's epidemics as well.
    , @huwhyte ppl
    @pyrrhus

    Thanks, great blog this Karl Denninger guy has.

    For those interested, basically, he retrieves the data from the SSA on payments to older folks and identifies that it does NOT deviate significantly from the previous years, except the spike in April deaths which Karl attributes mostly to Cuomo's decision to put sick people into nursing homes, which probably accelerated the death pace and people died who would've otherwise have died a bit later. Which kind of makes sense as NJ + NY corona deaths during that period dwarf the whole country.

    He also did some blogging about DNRs and quotes a research from a NJ hospital which basically states that most folks who died at that time (~90%) had signed a document that prescribes not to put much effort into reanimating them when they are dead, which is a sign that these people expected that they are going to die from OTHER cause than the coronavirus.

    Highly recommend.

    , @Achmed E. Newman
    @pyrrhus

    At the university near us, there were over 1200 cases of the Kung Flu. The number of hospitalizations was ... wait for it ...

    ZERO. That's a big goose egg, 0.

    Now someone tell me why they are not attending most classes but using zoom instead, yet still paying their $12,000 in tuition yearly that will have to be paid back by probably my tax money once they get load forgiveness.

    Peak Stupidity is nigh.

    , @Hippopotamusdrome
    @pyrrhus

    Hey, now. Just because someone is cashing the checks doesn't neccesarily mean they didn't die...

  92. @Mark G.
    @utu


    The factor of 10 lower fatality rate in Sweden’s neighbors is due to lockdowns and more effective tracing and isolating ability.
     
    Sweden has a larger number of immigrants than nearby Scandinavian countries. The police have little control in some of the large immigrant areas. Government officials there have said privately one reason lockdowns were not instituted was because they could not be successfully enforced in immigrant areas.

    Many of these immigrants in Sweden are unemployable because of low IQ and being unable to follow directions due to not understanding the native language. The Swedish government set up a government program to find jobs for these unemployable immigrants and gave many of them jobs working in nursing homes. This was a bad idea. It led to higher levels of deaths in nursing homes there.

    In the most recent wave of cases, Sweden has had a lower death rate than several other European countries that had hard lockdowns in the Spring. The countries that locked down hard earlier may have just spread some of their deaths over a longer period of time and shifted some deaths to a later point in time.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief, @utu, @LondonBob

    The meme blaming it on immigrants is the Swedish cope initially meant for liberal Swedes who are ticked off that countries they historically were looking down upon like Finland and Norway and Denmark that they have historical animosity with did 10 times better than them. The psychological essence of the meme is : We were bad because we are better (accepting immigrants unlike the people we look down upon).

    The other meme used by the butthurt Swedes is that of the “dry tinder” that supposedly in recent years during seasonal flues mortality was lower in Sweden than, say in Finland. Again the meme has the same psychologically consoling content: We are bad because we are so good (in protecting our old people in the past flu epidemics).

    Both meme get traction among the rightoids who peppered them up with the IQism.

    And one more thing, Swedish officials in the beginning were claiming that they could not have lockdown because their constitution prohibits putting restrictions on free movements of citizens. Some people ate it up because it so noble and lofty.

    Denmark has comparable fraction of foreign born residents (14%) to Sweden while Norway has higher fraction (16%) than Sweden.

    • Replies: @Mark G.
    @utu


    Denmark has comparable fraction of foreign born residents (14%) to Sweden while Norway has higher fraction (16%) than Sweden.

     

    According to the following article, Sweden has a much higher number of immigrants than other Scandinavian countries, both in absolute terms and in relation to the population. Sweden has three times as many immigrants as Norway and Denmark.

    https://www.ssb.no/en/befolkning/artikler-og-publikasjoner/_attachment/204333?_ts=1497ab864

    The composition of immigrants also differs. Sweden has taken in many more refugees from poor nonwhite countries than other Scandinavian countries. Many of the immigrants in Norway are people going there for jobs from other EU countries. People who compare total numbers of immigrants without also looking at the composition of immigrants are either not aware of this or are aware of this and are being a bit disingenuous. Sweden also instituted a program to put many of their nonwhite immigrants into nursing home jobs rather than use native workers in those jobs. Not only would native workers probably have done a better job due to higher IQ and better language skills but they would also probably care more about elderly Swedes than immigrants of other ethnic groups and would have done a better job for that reason also.

    Many Americans, especially older ones, still thinks everyone in Sweden looks like members of Abba or characters in an Ingmar Bergman film and have children who look like Pippi Longstocking. That is not the case.

    Replies: @utu

    , @Mr. Anon
    @utu


    And one more thing, Swedish officials in the beginning were claiming that they could not have lockdown because their constitution prohibits putting restrictions on free movements of citizens. Some people ate it up because it so noble and lofty.
     
    Imagine that! Being proud of - and actually believing that you have - constitutionally guaranteed rights. That you are a free person, not a subject of an all-powerful state. What a bunch of weirdos!

    You know how I know that lockdowns are wrong? Because they are called "lockdowns" - a term from prison administration.

    But clearly most people in government seem to share your creepy totalitarian belief - often expressed here with barely restrained glee - that citizens are inmates and government their warden.
  93. “The blue bars represent how many people died each week in the US from any and all causes: whether COVID, cancer, a broken heart, or BASE-jumping.”

    Hey Steve, don’t forget excess suicides, drug overdoses, and who knows how many other disparity related deaths that were the direct result of basically placing the entire country under house arrest.

    Not to mention that some of our dumber governors sent sick people off to quarantine in nursing homes, (occupied by the one and only demographic truly at risk of dying from the vYhrus) which is what caused the originally jump in corona-related deaths to begin with.

    Once of the best isteve commenters that used to be here, HAIL, who I’ve not seen in some time, would regularly explain things like this that you would ignore. I guess you ran him off or he gave up on your dogmatic perspective on the worst pandemic to ever exist.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Mike Tre

    No data on suicides in the US for 2020. In Australia that had strict lockdowns there its no change in suicides.
    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(20)30435-1/fulltext

    In Japan where they did not have lockdowns suicides declined by 12% in the first five months of the epidemic and increased by 13% from July to September
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.30.20184168v3.full.pdf

    and recent reports indicate that in October there was a huge 39.9% spike from October 2019. Among women it was 80% increase.
    https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h00864/

    Could one reverse the argument not infrequently heard here that covid does not kill people but their accompanying diseases, particularly the self-inflicted ones like obesity, high blood pressure and diabetes do and say that lockdowns and economic hardships do not suicide people but their accompanying mental health problems do? Obviously neither is valid nor fair. The suicides need to be accounted as a part of the cost of the epidemic and countermeasures.

    Replies: @Mike Tre

    , @Achmed E. Newman
    @Mike Tre

    Mike and others: Mr. E.H. Hail got tired of the hysteria. He is up to part 19 of his very thorough numerical analyses of this PanicFest on his Hail to You blog.

  94. @utu
    @Mark G.

    The meme blaming it on immigrants is the Swedish cope initially meant for liberal Swedes who are ticked off that countries they historically were looking down upon like Finland and Norway and Denmark that they have historical animosity with did 10 times better than them. The psychological essence of the meme is : We were bad because we are better (accepting immigrants unlike the people we look down upon).

    The other meme used by the butthurt Swedes is that of the "dry tinder" that supposedly in recent years during seasonal flues mortality was lower in Sweden than, say in Finland. Again the meme has the same psychologically consoling content: We are bad because we are so good (in protecting our old people in the past flu epidemics).

    Both meme get traction among the rightoids who peppered them up with the IQism.

    And one more thing, Swedish officials in the beginning were claiming that they could not have lockdown because their constitution prohibits putting restrictions on free movements of citizens. Some people ate it up because it so noble and lofty.

    Denmark has comparable fraction of foreign born residents (14%) to Sweden while Norway has higher fraction (16%) than Sweden.

    Replies: @Mark G., @Mr. Anon

    Denmark has comparable fraction of foreign born residents (14%) to Sweden while Norway has higher fraction (16%) than Sweden.

    According to the following article, Sweden has a much higher number of immigrants than other Scandinavian countries, both in absolute terms and in relation to the population. Sweden has three times as many immigrants as Norway and Denmark.

    https://www.ssb.no/en/befolkning/artikler-og-publikasjoner/_attachment/204333?_ts=1497ab864

    The composition of immigrants also differs. Sweden has taken in many more refugees from poor nonwhite countries than other Scandinavian countries. Many of the immigrants in Norway are people going there for jobs from other EU countries. People who compare total numbers of immigrants without also looking at the composition of immigrants are either not aware of this or are aware of this and are being a bit disingenuous. Sweden also instituted a program to put many of their nonwhite immigrants into nursing home jobs rather than use native workers in those jobs. Not only would native workers probably have done a better job due to higher IQ and better language skills but they would also probably care more about elderly Swedes than immigrants of other ethnic groups and would have done a better job for that reason also.

    Many Americans, especially older ones, still thinks everyone in Sweden looks like members of Abba or characters in an Ingmar Bergman film and have children who look like Pippi Longstocking. That is not the case.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Mark G.

    I am convinced that you are barking at the wrong tree. Bringing up immigrants to account for the factor of 10 difference between Sweden and its neighbors is crazy and it is in fact a red herring as I wrote in the previous comment. I will not be addressing your fantasies on the immigration as factor in mortality discrepancy among Scandinavia countries beyond this comment.

    I looked at the document you have linked (thanks) - Have you read it? If you did you would not present it here in support of your hypothesis.- the data are from 2011 and 2012 and they do not show significant differences among three Scandinavian countries. They have similar number of immigrants (8-15%) (Fig. 2). Denmark has more immigrants from Asia, Africa and S. America than Sweden (Fig.3). Norway and Denmark have more immigrant who lived there less than 3 years than Sweden (Fig. 4), Norway and Sweden have the same number of Somalis per capita (Table 1). Yes, Sweden has more immigrants form Iraq. Norway and Sweden have similar number of immigrants in higher education (Fig.7). Sweden has less employed immigrants (Fig. 9). This can't imply as you claim that Sweden employs more immigrant who cannot read or speak the language and that would be a reason for greater damage they have done in Sweden.

    Replies: @Mark G.

  95. Those data show about 60k dying per week before COVID-19, and about 60k per week since, with a big spike in April.

    Most of the supposed excess death appear as an artifact of the seasonal adjustment. Usually a seasonal winter flu kills more in the winter, with no flu deaths in the summer. Now we have COVID-19 replacing the flu, and it does not follow the same seasonal pattern. So yes, the deaths are in excess of the seasonally adjusted predictions, but still only about 60k per week.

  96. @vhrm
    @utu

    You may have a point there; people of that tone don't have the highest credibility.

    However the point still stands. I first noticed it when that @res was around in the spring and we were looking at some graphs related to the first wave lockdowns. But it's been the same since then: i haven't seen any graph of new cases/day or deaths/day that's shown any clear "signal" from the government lockdowns even at a lag.

    Eh, que sera sera. At this point whether it dies down in by itself in the next month or two or because of vaccine in the months after that it'll be done with.. and hopefully some research gets done on this stuff before Sars-cov-3 (and i remember to buy some powered respirators once the bruhaha dies down)

    Replies: @utu, @Steve Sailer

    NYC never locked down its subway but ridership still dropped 90%. It’s almost as if people make decisions about what’s in their individual best interest…

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @Steve Sailer

    Have there been any attempts to correlate population/sub-population IQ or education levels with containment? My sense in Japan is that people are vacillating between risk taking and risk avoidance week to week and must be making their decisions by constantly updating based on news reports and reading the room.

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist

    , @prosa123
    @Steve Sailer

    NYC never locked down its subway but ridership still dropped 90%. It’s almost as if people make decisions about what’s in their individual best interest…

    In early May the transit authority made the unprecedented step of ending 24/7 service and shut down subway service from 1 am to 5 am each day. Ostensibly it's for "deep cleaning" while in reality it's a means of keeping out skells, who had been moving into the trains in huge numbers and using them as bedrooms and, to a disturbing extent, restrooms.

    Overall ridership numbers never quite dropped by 90%. Ridership declines vary by line and by station, and systemwide seem to be in the 65% to 70% range. As a general rule Manhattan stations have seen the heaviest fare count drops, while local ridership numbers in the other boroughs have dropped by much lesser amounts. The transit authority makes weekly station fare count data available, though the numbers can be difficult to interpret. One thing to remember is that unlike many other transit systems the NYC subway does not require turnstile swipes on exit, so tracking ridership is more complicated that elsewhere.

    Something which may seem odd is that most trains keep running, albeit without passengers, during the overnight shutdown hours. As the system was designed for 24/7 operation there is far too little yard space to store trains during extended shutdowns. In addition, transit workers use the otherwise passenger-less trains to get to the terminals to start their morning shifts.

    Replies: @Jack D

    , @stillCARealist
    @Steve Sailer

    What? If people's jobs and events are canceled, why would they be riding the subway like they used to?

    , @Redman
    @Steve Sailer

    Actually, since most of the businesses here were shut down there wasn't much to take the subway to. Also no tourists. Unfortunately, I don't think much of this had to do with people making their own choices.

    OTOH, the Metronorth and LIRR (the 2 major suburban rail lines) have been dead since March. Deader than the subways in fact. And continue to be so. That reflects the white collar workforce's universal permission to work from home, which many if not most have chosen to be in their own best interest.

    Replies: @hhsiii, @prosa123

  97. @utu
    @vhrm

    Here is a graph based on data from Italy. Each day of delay to lockdown increases death toll by 8/100k.

    https://i.ibb.co/rZFpQC8/Silverio-Nov2020.png

    I have looked at some papers that come to conclusion that lockdowns do not work and all of them have some fatal flaw. The well know one published in Lancet by Canadian anesthesiologists (why anesthesiologists?) takes data from 50 countries that are very different and never should have been put together if you can't remove influence of confounding variables that are much stronger than the lockdown effects.

    This paper should have never been accepted for publication


    https://thefatemperor.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/1.-LANCET-LOCKDOWN-NO-MORTALITY-BENEFIT-A-country-level-analysis-measuring-the-impact-of-government-actions.pdf
    A country level analysis measuring the impact of government actions, country preparedness and socioeconomic factors on COVID-19 mortality and related health outcomes
    Rabail Chaudhrya, George Dranitsarisb, Talha Mubashirc, Justyna Bartoszkoa, Sheila Riazia
     
    but obviously it gets mileage among the covid skeptics and anti-lockdown advocates. Debunking each paper like that on its internal data and methodology is like trying to debunk each papers on free energy and perpetual motion w/o invoking the law of energy conservation and the second law of thermodynamics.

    It is OK to question lockdowns for their costs but any claims that a lockdown in a finite time period does not reduce mortality should be rejected out of hand just like the perpetual motion and free energy papers are rejected out of hand.

    Replies: @Cloudbuster, @Polynikes

    That graph has so many confounding data points, it is worthless.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Cloudbuster

    You are wrong. Correlation R=0.78 (60% variance explained) is very high (for comparison brain size vs. IQ correlation is 0.3 (9% variance explained)). It would be even higher if the fatalities attributed to infections prior to lockdowns were subtracted. The main source of the scatter are data from Southern Italy where infection rates were low and spotty which added to scatter when data were expressed in terms of per capita. When infections are not well mixed in population per capita numbers add noise, Aosta with the skiing resorts in Valle d'Aosta is a large outlier. Its population is 125k only, so its weight on data is small.

    Replies: @Cloudbuster

  98. @obwandiyag
    It's nice to have an adult in the room.

    Replies: @Anoymouse, @Mike Tre, @Desiderius

    To make sure you don’t start eating the crayons again?

    Steve, look at who’s on your side in this issue: Newsom, Pritzker, Cuomo, Corvinus, and obwhineybag. That alone should give you pause.

    • Replies: @HA
    @Mike Tre

    "Steve, look at who’s on your side in this issue: Newsom, Pritzker, Cuomo, Corvinus, and obwhineybag."

    You forgot Putin and Netanyahu -- the latter is sending out cops on horseback into Orthodox neighborhoods to see that the restrictions are being kept. They've had two lockdowns so far.

    And if the people on "your" side are anti-vaxxers or else the just-a-flu bros who come here telling us the US needs to be more like Sweden (or Belarus, for that matter) -- or else maybe someone like this -- then you clearly didn't think that argument through before you started typing.

    Replies: @BenKenobi

  99. @Reg Cæsar
    These guys, as usual, were way ahead of their time:



    https://i2-prod.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/incoming/article11949878.ece/ALTERNATES/s1200c/JS100896473.jpg

    Replies: @Mike Tre, @Wielgus, @Hail Caesar

    Yep, obese negro females have culturally appropriated the subtle art of wearing a dirty mask pulled down below their noses.

    • Replies: @vhrm
    @Mike Tre


    Yep,
    ... the subtle art of wearing a dirty mask pulled down below their noses.
     
    have noticed that too disproportionately with some groups. Is it a style thing, like the sagging pants, or what?
  100. @Luke Lea
    It would be good to go back many more years for perspective. Also, how many of those excess deaths are due to lockdown? And will there be below average deaths in the period following the epidemic, because of the most vulnerable dying a little sooner than otherwise?

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Hypnotoad666, @JR Ewing, @stillCARealist

    Keep in mind as well that 2019 was a mild flu year and there were NO excess deaths following the peak at the beginning of 2018. So for 24 months we were below the baseline.

    This means that not only should we be looking for “pull ahead deaths”, we should also recognize that 2020 has had some “borrowed time” deaths of people who hung on longer than they would have otherwise until the the ‘rona got them. Yes CV19 has been bad, but influenza in 2018 was more benign than usual. Both of those factors contributed to the 2020 observations.

    And the lower number in 2019 is what caused the 2020 baseline to be lower. Rather than try to catch up, it appears the model inadvertently averaged down.

    • Agree: Polynikes, Travis
    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    @JR Ewing


    And the lower number in 2019 is what caused the 2020 baseline to be lower. Rather than try to catch up, it appears the model inadvertently averaged down.
     
    Yep, that has to be considered. - This is one of - how many important factors? Five?

    Let me see:

    2) Treatments prevented by hospital lock-downs (a big one - for cancer alone, there is a serious estimation for Britain of 50 000 deaths).

    3) Sick patients moved from hospitals to care homes due to lack of beds (NY problem not least).

    4) Patients put on ventilators too early and too often (a deadly mistake in many cases).

    5) A lack of staff in care homes and hospitals due to false positives of the PCR tests.

    (to be continued...)
    , @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @JR Ewing

    Also the elderly population in America has been growing by 1.5 million per year.
    In 2020 there are 54 million over the age of 65
    In 2015 there were 47 million over 65
    In 2010 there were 40 million over 65

    Replies: @Polynikes

  101. @Kaz
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Deaths aren't the only thing.

    Hospital systems are overwhelmed. This is with a 'soft' lockdown.

    The people who don't die can face debilitating effects, no understanding of long term effects.

    Lots of things to consider aside from simple deaths. It's just the easiest thing to measure.

    Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country, @RichardTaylor, @Mr. Anon, @epebble, @Bill Jones, @JR Ewing

    Every virus has potential long term complications.

    This is yet another way of saying, “I don’t want to admit I was hysterical about a flu bug, so I’m going to pretend that it was worse than it really is.”

    All the BS about “asymptomatic spread” is in the same vein, except that’s something that was invented (rather than was exaggerated) in order to make covid appear worse than it really is and justify the continued panic.

    Humans have been dealing with respiratory viruses since the start of history. There is nothing unique about the one we found in 2020.

    • Agree: Redman
    • Replies: @LondonBob
    @JR Ewing

    Long covid is no more common than long term issues with any other virus.

    https://www.england.nhs.uk/2020/10/nhs-to-offer-long-covid-help/

    One in ten, but a tiny number after more than three weeks, a fair number of whom will psychosomatic.

  102. @Stan d Mute
    Rather than repeating the excellent comments above and in previous threads, I will come right out with it.

    WTF if wrong with you Steve? You are, for perhaps the first time in the 20 years I’ve been reading your screeds, in full agreement with your trolls and on the verge of being mocked by your most loyal fans.

    My suspicion is that you harbor some intense personal fear that you are unable to subsume in objectivity. I doubt it is your cancer history because I would rather have my cancer back, see remission vanish, and deal with metastasis than see the bullshit viral panic festival for milquetoast jacobins continue. Is it your parents? Spouse or kids? We can all forgive you cowering and trembling in terror, soaked in your own urine, shrieking “the virus is falling!” if the neurosis is rooted in something like that.

    Replies: @John Achterhof, @Sam Malone, @Servant of Gla'aki

    The impression I get, looking over this commentariat revolt to Sailer’s presentation of factual information, is that while Steve is an independent thinker those drawn to his thought on taboo subjects are overwhelmingly anti-establishment, contrarian thinkers. If the powers-that-be had been determined at the outset of this pandemic to prioritize economic well-being over public health in lockdowns and mandates I suspect that those same commentators now braying against the course of action taken would be braying about the indifference to public health (death, long and shorter term sickness) in their prioritizing of tax-revenue-generating economic function.

    I was unsure at the outset about the call to shut down indefinitely so much economic and social activity – which has taken a great toll – in the unsure prospect of developing soon a vaccine, or at least effective treatment. But it turns out the drug companies have come through in flying colors, and while the US has floundered in its effort to quash the virus, the example of New Zealand shows just how effective social suppression/eradication efforts can be with competent, widely respected leadership and social solidarity. Indeed, an assortment of approaches have been deployed by different countries. What country can you point to as a model of sensibility according to your view of the seriousness of the virus? Sweden?

    Maybe, Stan, you and your reflexively contrarian fellows should just pass by informative posts such as this that upset your contratianism and just lap up the lower-nutrient stuff, such as some of the other posts offered today, that is more the common fare.

    • Replies: @Anonymous Jew
    @John Achterhof

    See my comment at #170

    When faced with the trolley problem - and Coronavirus policy is one giant trolley problem - people tend to have responses predicted by their ideology. Leftists/Progressives get hysterical and won’t accept the hypothetical. Conservatives mull it over and then reluctantly pull the switch. Libertarians (and I suspect many on the far right) see a child’s math problem.

    The commentariat here skews very male brain - low empathy and high systematizers. That’s where the bias is coming from. And it’s not just here. There’s a pretty clear ideological divide on the lockdowns. Here in Seattle I can predict pretty well where someone is on the left-right spectrum based solely on their mask etiquette. Have you ever tried to argue with a leftist that you can put a cost on human life? Have you ever tried to persuade a Libertarian that you can NOT put a cost on human life?

    Steve is just getting old, previously had cancer and doesn’t want to die. So he avoids the $64,000 question; this is about policy, not science. And sometimes - as with traffic accidents and so many other policy dilemmas - you’re better off killing some people for the greater good. Otherwise you end up with a 10-mph speed limit.

    *When corrected for years of life lost, our annual deaths from traffic accidents is equal to roughly 260,000 Coronavirus deaths.

    https://babylonbee.com/news/biden-to-defeat-skin-cancer-by-ordering-americans-to-wear-sunscreen-for-100-days

  103. @Anonymous
    @Ron Unz

    I am in agreement with both Steve and Ron. I find myself with a different point of view to a lot of the commentariat.

    It seems that the individualism/atomism of the US combined with the hamfisted initial response has made it a situation where the US will bumble through until a vaccine is rolled out as there is no alternative. Australia, New Zealand and China have shown that yes, you can eliminate the virus and deal with outbreaks locally. A key is to contain and limit the travel so that the measures felt are localized.

    If there was another epidemic of greater severity and similar infectivity, the USA would be in a real pickle. If nothing else, this was a useful drill for such an event. The countries I mentioned and others have shown they have the toolkit to deal with even a virus as infectious as COVID, without waiting for a vaccine. In fact, most would be shutting the international borders far earlier than we have in future, completely avoiding the problem, or dealing with the small outbreaks. The key is to act early. Some short term pain is endured but then life goes on!

    It is notable that the Swedish model has failed and it's not for the Swedes lack of trying it. They have ended their experiment.

    Somehow, COVID has gotten politicized and it seems I am at odds with most republican types unfortunately. There is still much common ground, no need to get nasty or rude with our hosts. You might also realize that they are older gentlemen who have a non-trivial risk of death with COVID. I would prefer both stick around as long as possible.

    Replies: @utu, @Federalist, @RadicalCenter, @Polynikes

    I am in agreement with both Steve and Ron. I find myself with a different point of view to a lot of the commentariat.

    Go back and read what they said at the height of the panic (or better yet, don’t). There’s a reason Steve almost completely stopped talking about Covid.

  104. @Cloudbuster
    @utu

    That graph has so many confounding data points, it is worthless.

    Replies: @utu

    You are wrong. Correlation R=0.78 (60% variance explained) is very high (for comparison brain size vs. IQ correlation is 0.3 (9% variance explained)). It would be even higher if the fatalities attributed to infections prior to lockdowns were subtracted. The main source of the scatter are data from Southern Italy where infection rates were low and spotty which added to scatter when data were expressed in terms of per capita. When infections are not well mixed in population per capita numbers add noise, Aosta with the skiing resorts in Valle d’Aosta is a large outlier. Its population is 125k only, so its weight on data is small.

    • Replies: @Cloudbuster
    @utu

    It's easy to come up with two sets of numbers that generate a high correlation value. That's not the same as the correlation meaning anything. As you yourself as much as said, each of those data points is a different place, under a different circumstance. The different contributing variables on the ground are so numerous as to be uncountable. It's nothing like a controlled experiment. The simple math trick of identifying a high correlation between two things you *want* to be related is unconvincing. It's "How to Lie with Statistics 101."

    Replies: @utu

  105. That chart is a graphic representation of Vitamin D deficiency. Never saw such before. Thanks, Steve.

  106. Anon[306] • Disclaimer says:

    I don’t particularly favor lockdowns, but for all the Covidiots here, how many have really gone through lockdowns? Poor New Yorkers and who else? America has not done lockdowns.

    The way commenters here who go on and on about just letting the old geezers die, or how 320,000 dead is just 0.1% of population.. know that that is just how radicals think about the negligible percentage of White Bodies on Earth.

    Being callous is trendy. Generosity and responsibility to others is the price we pay in order to remain fully human.

  107. @Steve Sailer
    @Anon

    Clearly, being terrified of getting a vaccine shot indicates heaping quantities of the Right Stuff.

    Replies: @the one they call Desanex, @Chrisnonymous, @SunBakedSuburb, @Federalist, @MB

    Of course, machismo always suffers from survivorship bias fallacy. That’s why black ghetto culture propagates itself.

  108. @Steve Sailer
    @vhrm

    NYC never locked down its subway but ridership still dropped 90%. It's almost as if people make decisions about what's in their individual best interest...

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @prosa123, @stillCARealist, @Redman

    Have there been any attempts to correlate population/sub-population IQ or education levels with containment? My sense in Japan is that people are vacillating between risk taking and risk avoidance week to week and must be making their decisions by constantly updating based on news reports and reading the room.

    • Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist
    @Chrisnonymous


    My sense in Japan is that people are vacillating between risk taking and risk avoidance week to week and must be making their decisions by constantly updating based on news reports and reading the room.

     

    Thanks for this, Chris. I think it's much the same here in HK, although I'm worried that HK is developing a hard core of risk-avoidance fanatics, both in government and scattered through the general population, who are going to make it very, very hard to get back to anything like normal life here.

    We are being ratcheted into a growing set of restrictions that is getting gradually closer to full lockdown. At this point, we're working from home; restaurants can only seat groups of two people, and must close at 6:00 pm; and all churches, gyms, and public facilities of all sorts are closed. Shops and public transport are still open.

    HK is now on its (purported) fourth wave, which must lead the world. Translated, this means we are averaging about 100 'cases' a day in a population of almost 8 million.

    The genesis of this latest outbreak would be hilarious if it weren't causing so much disruption and suffering: COVID cases started breaking out in profusion amongst a certain set of late-middle-aged to elderly rich 'ladies who lunch', and who like to frequent 'dance halls' where they rumba and waltz with hunky 20- and 30-something toyboys -- all un-masked, of course. Supposedly the beat carried on into some horizontal tango-ing in local hotels also. There have been over 600 cases linked to this cluster already.

    Anyway, our universally-loathed Chief Executive, the estimable Carrie Lam, has officially announced that HK's goal should be zero cases, in perpetuity, forever. And this is going to be achieved strictly by cracking down on the population and its movements, because although the HK government has made a sort of off-hand, lukewarm 'commitment' to taking care of vaccinating the population, they have suggested they might think about getting around to it in late 2021, maybe, or probably more likely 2022. So we've got a solid year of busybodying to look forward to.

    It's getting really hard on kids here. As is well-known, the vast majority of HK people live in high-rise towers, and flats are generally tiny. Lots of kids here are essentially being imprisoned, as schools have been off more than on for the past year. They're totally online again at the moment. The apotheosis of this rage for risk-avoidance (for a demographic segment that isn't even at risk) came last month, when the HK education department shut down all kindergartens (the equivalent of preschool + kindergarten in the USA), not because of COVID infections, but because there were kids coming home with -- just wait for it -- the common cold.

    Anyway, if anyone's still reading, thanks for letting me vent. 2020's been a long haul.
  109. @utu
    @Cloudbuster

    You are wrong. Correlation R=0.78 (60% variance explained) is very high (for comparison brain size vs. IQ correlation is 0.3 (9% variance explained)). It would be even higher if the fatalities attributed to infections prior to lockdowns were subtracted. The main source of the scatter are data from Southern Italy where infection rates were low and spotty which added to scatter when data were expressed in terms of per capita. When infections are not well mixed in population per capita numbers add noise, Aosta with the skiing resorts in Valle d'Aosta is a large outlier. Its population is 125k only, so its weight on data is small.

    Replies: @Cloudbuster

    It’s easy to come up with two sets of numbers that generate a high correlation value. That’s not the same as the correlation meaning anything. As you yourself as much as said, each of those data points is a different place, under a different circumstance. The different contributing variables on the ground are so numerous as to be uncountable. It’s nothing like a controlled experiment. The simple math trick of identifying a high correlation between two things you *want* to be related is unconvincing. It’s “How to Lie with Statistics 101.”

    • Replies: @utu
    @Cloudbuster

    You are incoherent.

  110. @Steve Sailer
    @vhrm

    NYC never locked down its subway but ridership still dropped 90%. It's almost as if people make decisions about what's in their individual best interest...

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @prosa123, @stillCARealist, @Redman

    NYC never locked down its subway but ridership still dropped 90%. It’s almost as if people make decisions about what’s in their individual best interest…

    In early May the transit authority made the unprecedented step of ending 24/7 service and shut down subway service from 1 am to 5 am each day. Ostensibly it’s for “deep cleaning” while in reality it’s a means of keeping out skells, who had been moving into the trains in huge numbers and using them as bedrooms and, to a disturbing extent, restrooms.

    Overall ridership numbers never quite dropped by 90%. Ridership declines vary by line and by station, and systemwide seem to be in the 65% to 70% range. As a general rule Manhattan stations have seen the heaviest fare count drops, while local ridership numbers in the other boroughs have dropped by much lesser amounts. The transit authority makes weekly station fare count data available, though the numbers can be difficult to interpret. One thing to remember is that unlike many other transit systems the NYC subway does not require turnstile swipes on exit, so tracking ridership is more complicated that elsewhere.

    Something which may seem odd is that most trains keep running, albeit without passengers, during the overnight shutdown hours. As the system was designed for 24/7 operation there is far too little yard space to store trains during extended shutdowns. In addition, transit workers use the otherwise passenger-less trains to get to the terminals to start their morning shifts.

    • Thanks: vhrm
    • Replies: @Jack D
    @prosa123

    These are all interesting points, but they don't negate Steve's main point that even in the absence of government mandated lockdowns, people were and are staying away from public places anyway. So a lot of what people are blaming on the government really should be blamed on the disease itself (although OTOH you could argue that even that is due to gov/media created panic). If you recall February, there were no lockdowns but the Northeast big city restaurants (esp. Chinese restaurants) had already emptied out and the Dem mayors were pleading with people not to be racists and to come to Chinatown and enjoy their dinners (but people didn't listen and business sucked anyway). (Of course it is all memory holed that Dems were against lockdowns before they were for them).

    Transit may not be the best example because if your workplace is closed then of course you are not going to commute to it, so the drop in ridership is not entirely voluntary but a side effect of the lockdown.

  111. @Steve Sailer
    @Travis

    So that's why deaths climbed 40% from early March to the second week in April?

    Replies: @RVS, @Travis, @MGB, @Anon

    You misunderstand the point. All-cause mortality is up substantially since 2000. Apparently people are less healthy now than they were 20 years ago, and more susceptible to dying from a viral infection. A possible explanation is the epidemic of metabolic disorder in older people, which is revealed in surging rates of obesity and diabetes.

    • Agree: Dutch Boy, Thoughts
  112. @PiltdownMan
    @Anonymous

    I knew three people who died of Covid-19. One was a relative by marriage, in his early 60s, another, a college friend about the same age, and the third, a 93 year old father of another college buddy. All were well, and had no medical issues or chronic conditions prior to their illness.

    Replies: @Buck Ransom, @Old Prude, @Hippopotamusdrome

    My condolences to your college friend who lost his father tragically and unexpectedly at the age of 93. I wonder if he was one of those in a New York nursing home last spring. In any case, his family can take comfort knowing that the fine old fellow was still able to vote, possibly 2 or 3 times, for Joe Biden in November.

    • Troll: AndrewR
    • Replies: @PiltdownMan
    @Buck Ransom


    My condolences to your college friend who lost his father tragically and unexpectedly at the age of 93.
     
    Thanks. I'll convey your sympathy.
    , @AndrewR
    @Buck Ransom

    What a disgusting comment

  113. @Mike Tre
    "The blue bars represent how many people died each week in the US from any and all causes: whether COVID, cancer, a broken heart, or BASE-jumping."

    Hey Steve, don't forget excess suicides, drug overdoses, and who knows how many other disparity related deaths that were the direct result of basically placing the entire country under house arrest.

    Not to mention that some of our dumber governors sent sick people off to quarantine in nursing homes, (occupied by the one and only demographic truly at risk of dying from the vYhrus) which is what caused the originally jump in corona-related deaths to begin with.

    Once of the best isteve commenters that used to be here, HAIL, who I've not seen in some time, would regularly explain things like this that you would ignore. I guess you ran him off or he gave up on your dogmatic perspective on the worst pandemic to ever exist.

    Replies: @utu, @Achmed E. Newman

    No data on suicides in the US for 2020. In Australia that had strict lockdowns there its no change in suicides.
    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(20)30435-1/fulltext

    In Japan where they did not have lockdowns suicides declined by 12% in the first five months of the epidemic and increased by 13% from July to September
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.30.20184168v3.full.pdf

    and recent reports indicate that in October there was a huge 39.9% spike from October 2019. Among women it was 80% increase.
    https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h00864/

    Could one reverse the argument not infrequently heard here that covid does not kill people but their accompanying diseases, particularly the self-inflicted ones like obesity, high blood pressure and diabetes do and say that lockdowns and economic hardships do not suicide people but their accompanying mental health problems do? Obviously neither is valid nor fair. The suicides need to be accounted as a part of the cost of the epidemic and countermeasures.

    • Replies: @Mike Tre
    @utu

    Please keep your daily covid church services out of replies to me.
    As I am sure social distancing is one of your sacraments, please do so with me.
    Amen, I mean stay safe, or whatever you people say to each other at the end of mass.

  114. @Kyle
    The fear with covid 19 was that it was going to be like the flu. It’s here forever, it doesn’t confer long lasting immunity, and there are a wave of die offs every year. Once the virus got out into the wild, the toothpaste was out of the tube. That was the worst cast scenario. I’m not an epidemiologist and I have no access to any data. One of you geniuses should enlighten me, how many people who have had Covid 19 have been re infected, and on average how long does the immunity last, if any? Adjacently how long does the immunity from the vaccine last? Those are the only important questions. The lockdowns and holding kids out of school were always asinine. The burden of proof is on you to prove that shutting down my work for 6 weeks and holding kids out of school accomplished anything. Of course there are a lot of excess deaths. Look at how many excess flu deaths there were in 2018, a there’s a vaccine for that. And guess what, not everyone is going to take the COVID-19 vaccine either, so there will probably always be a bunch of excess deaths from it every winter... unless of course this is like Sars 1 and it confers a fairly long lasting immunity. I don’t think that possibility has been disproven. In that case the virus will probably burn itself to an extent, but still always be around and dangerous. I was locked down for 6 weeks, That can’t happen again because if it did somebody would actually kidnap the governess and heads would roll. If I was over 30 I probably would be fearful of covid and that’s perfectly reasonable. If you’re afraid of covid there’s no reason for you to ever leave your house, you can order in food, and essential workers will keep the water running and the lights on. Of course there are excess deaths. That’s the conflict inherent to COVID-19 politics, it’s easy to frame it as Us versus Them. Are We willing to sacrifice Our quality of life years for Your quality of life years? Rational, self interested human beings should answer no to that question. Boomers still answer no to that question, and good for them. But Gen X and younger don’t seem to be rational nor self interested.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Travis

    The evidence is mounting that people can get re-infected with COVID. The antibodies quickly fade , as shown by all the antibody studies. Thankfully we also gain T-cell immunity which lasts longer, but may not prevent reinfection. Back in April over 30% of New Yorkers had the antibodies, this faded to 25% by June and 21% in September.

    The Pfizer study actually claims that the COVID infection rate was the same for those who already had COVID compared to those who had no previous coronavirus infection. “The placebo group attack rate from enrollment to the November 14, 2020, data cut-off date was 1.3% both for participants without evidence of prior infection at enrollment and for participants with evidence of prior infection at enrollment.” While limited, these data do suggest that previously infected individuals can be at risk of COVID-19 (i.e., reinfection) From page 28 of the FDA briefing.

    • Replies: @Redman
    @Travis


    Back in April over 30% of New Yorkers had the antibodies, this faded to 25% by June and 21% in September.
     
    It's important to know who was being tested. Was this the random testing or people who reported as sick?

    I recently tested positive for the antibodies about 8 months after having Covid.

    Replies: @HA

  115. @pyrrhus
    Funny, Social Security recipient data doesn't show these increases in deaths, Market Ticker has analyzed this, yet the vast majority of people dying from Covid are over 70...I smell a rat...
    And we personally know 20+ people who have had actual Covid cases, and none of them were even hospitalized, while most had very light symptoms...

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @huwhyte ppl, @Achmed E. Newman, @Hippopotamusdrome

    Funny, Social Security recipient data doesn’t show these increases in deaths, Market Ticker has analyzed this, yet the vast majority of people dying from Covid are over 70…I smell a rat…
    And we personally know 20+ people who have had actual Covid cases, and none of them were even hospitalized, while most had very light symptoms…

    How many of those dying were illegal aliens? Those people who “live in the shadows” to use the hackneyed phrase. Maybe the large COVID death rate in America is partly due to us not only having our own COVID epidemic, but a few other country’s epidemics as well.

  116. @Anonymous
    I live in a city with millions. All this would be more believable if I knew of a single person who died from it. LOL

    Yeah a few grandpas in their late 70s got sick but got over it.

    But I’m sure there’s an uptick, what you’d expect with kind of a bad bug going around. It happens. No reason to destroy the country. And overall, I’m sorry, but this was no biggie.

    Replies: @PiltdownMan, @dataBro, @Lurker, @My SIMPLE Pseudonymic Handle, @Occasional lurker

    Dunbar’s number is 150. You know 150 people, that you can plausibly keep track of give or take. Covid has killed 1 out of 1000 people in the US. Most folks don’t know anyone who died. Once we get to 1 in 300, 50% of people will have someone in their network who has died. It’s worse than that though, most peoples 150 is not random, so how many actually over 70 folks are in your network. If you are young not too many.

    The numbers don’t lie, my wife is a nurse, hospital is full, people are dying, I only know friends of friends who’ve died. But the CDC is not making this shit up. Maybe you have a someone in your network who works at a hospital? Ask them.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @dataBro

    The hospitals are not full. That’s what they told us six months ago and that was a lie. Except for a few hotspots most of them were Desert Islands.

    I talked to a doctor just recently who said there was no problem getting in for any procedure.

    , @Hippopotamusdrome
    @dataBro



    my wife is a nurse, hospital is full

     

    Wat?
  117. @utu
    @Mark G.

    The meme blaming it on immigrants is the Swedish cope initially meant for liberal Swedes who are ticked off that countries they historically were looking down upon like Finland and Norway and Denmark that they have historical animosity with did 10 times better than them. The psychological essence of the meme is : We were bad because we are better (accepting immigrants unlike the people we look down upon).

    The other meme used by the butthurt Swedes is that of the "dry tinder" that supposedly in recent years during seasonal flues mortality was lower in Sweden than, say in Finland. Again the meme has the same psychologically consoling content: We are bad because we are so good (in protecting our old people in the past flu epidemics).

    Both meme get traction among the rightoids who peppered them up with the IQism.

    And one more thing, Swedish officials in the beginning were claiming that they could not have lockdown because their constitution prohibits putting restrictions on free movements of citizens. Some people ate it up because it so noble and lofty.

    Denmark has comparable fraction of foreign born residents (14%) to Sweden while Norway has higher fraction (16%) than Sweden.

    Replies: @Mark G., @Mr. Anon

    And one more thing, Swedish officials in the beginning were claiming that they could not have lockdown because their constitution prohibits putting restrictions on free movements of citizens. Some people ate it up because it so noble and lofty.

    Imagine that! Being proud of – and actually believing that you have – constitutionally guaranteed rights. That you are a free person, not a subject of an all-powerful state. What a bunch of weirdos!

    You know how I know that lockdowns are wrong? Because they are called “lockdowns” – a term from prison administration.

    But clearly most people in government seem to share your creepy totalitarian belief – often expressed here with barely restrained glee – that citizens are inmates and government their warden.

  118. @Steve Sailer
    @Travis

    So that's why deaths climbed 40% from early March to the second week in April?

    Replies: @RVS, @Travis, @MGB, @Anon

    The death rate climbed in March and April mostly due to the first wave of COVID, but a significant number of the excess deaths this year are due to the lockdowns and from the rapidly aging baby boomers turning 75 this year. We have millions more elderly people today than 5 years ago.

    Year – 65-and-older population
    2000 – 35 million
    2010 – 40 million
    2020 – 54 million

    The dramatic growth in the elderly population since 2010 will result in more deaths each year. Excess deaths cannot be calculated by comparing 2020 to 2018. They need to age-adjust the data. https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/65-older-population-grows.html

    • Agree: Redman
    • Replies: @Louis Renault
    @Travis


    They need to age-adjust the data.
     
    Yes, but that would violate the narrative and not allow social changes driven by the left's ideology.
  119. @obwandiyag
    It's nice to have an adult in the room.

    Replies: @Anoymouse, @Mike Tre, @Desiderius

    We’re all adults here.

    Imagining oneself to have cornered that particular market is a decidedly adolescent affectation.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Desiderius


    We’re all adults here.
     
    You could have fooled me. It's possible for reasonable (adult) men to differ over important questions such as whether the costs of the lockdowns outweigh their benefits or whether it is wise to take a newly approved vaccine, but some people here, especially on the "it's just the flu"/anti-vaxx side have behaved more like dogs frightened of going to the vet than adult humans capable of reason. If you allow fear to take over your brain, it becomes difficult to have an adult conversation.

    Replies: @Desiderius, @Old Prude

  120. I don’t personally know a single person who has died of COVID-19. But I did know a person (a co-worker, mid-to-late-sixties, not obviously in bad health) who died of the Flu a few years ago.

  121. @Steve Sailer
    @JimDandy

    Keeping them from getting that lump checked out, etc.

    Probably the long-run toll will be high. On the other hand, the first hump in All Causes death was spectacularly steep, and it's unlikely that the long run had set in by the week ending April 11, when national deaths (all causes) were 41% above the expected level. In New York City that week, deaths were running at 600+% of normal.

    Replies: @JimDandy, @Redman

    The first hump is also when iatrogenic deaths (typically, the third highest cause of death nationally) were likely at their peak. Back when ventilators were being used ubiquitously here in NYC.

    Is it possible to determine how many people would have survived but for the use of ventilators? Probably not. But ventilators sure went from being a prized commodity to a dirty word in about 6 weeks.

  122. Who was the guy who was tested four times for the (((coronavirus))) and he received two results that were positive and two results that were negative? Oh, that was Elon Musk. haha.

    ROTFLMMFWAO.

    The virus is real, but not lethal and IMO, the virus was MANUFACTURED and it wasn’t the IRA that did it. You have a 99.5-99.8% chance of surviving the “deadly coronavirus” IF you are reasonably healthy and under the age of 70-75 depending of course how well you take care of yourself. The late Jack LaLanne was more fit in his 80s than the average 20 year old of today, fitter in fact than the average 20 year old of 2020 without a doubt.

    You know what will play havoc on a person’s health worse than the coronavirus? Stress. Stress breaks down your immune system and can cause a variety of illnesses, not to mention a mental breakdown. Lack of sunshine breaks down the immune system as well. People, you are being fed a load of horseshit just like before. Remember Weapons Of Mass Destruction, anyone? Hasn’t been that long ago, surely you haven’t forgotten. How about Assad gassing children?

    Do you stop driving your car because there are automobile accidents? Hell, try driving in and around Atlanta or Washington, D.C. and see if that doesn’t scare you more than this “deadly disease.” Better stop camping or hiking as well, after all, people are bitten by poisonous snakes every year and every now and then there are bear attacks. smdh and lol.

    And lastly, this virus is making a FEW people LOTS OF MONEY and it is a test to figure out how well the sheeple can be controlled to do as they are told. Go figure.

    • Agree: peterike
  123. Here’s the thing…

    Minorities made the mistake of going to their local minority hospitals at the beginning of Covid, and were killed by minority nurses and doctors

    It was and probably still is a slaughterhouse in minority communities

    Just wait for the report in 10 years

  124. @MattinLA
    Two problems with this graph:1) many of the deaths are caused by lockdowns, not the virus, and 2) the CDC average death baseline is too low for 2020, in other words, there are less "excess" deaths than indicated.

    Replies: @Redman

    Agreed. And nobody seems to want to talk about #2. According to UN projections, the US is in the early part of a very sharp spike in the projected national death rate, which started on 2009. My guess is this has to do with our rapidly aging population (i.e. boomers).

    https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate

    But it does not appear the the CDC factors that into their chart of excess deaths. It appears they take an average of the last 4 years and assume that’s what to predict for a baseline (i.e. normal).

  125. @anonymous coward
    @Dave


    So I won’t die of it, but lasting organ damage is a real possibility.
     
    That's bullshit. I had Covid, and I know dozens of people who had it. Nobody experienced anything out of the ordinary for a common respiratory viral infection.

    Yes, some people get severe autoimmune reactions to Covid, but those people are very rare, and if you're one of them you'll know immediately.

    Replies: @Jack D, @Dave

    Even if you know dozens of people who had Covid, that doesn’t mean squat. The number of people in the US alone who have had Covid is in the millions, not dozens. I don’t know anyone who died in an auto crash this year (so according to your logic, I can conclude that all car crashes are just fender benders) but in fact every year 35,000 people in the US die in car crashes.

    The effects of Covid seem to vary wildly – kids experience it as a mild cold or sometimes even have no symptoms despite being positive. Old people often die from it, as do middle aged people who are obese, diabetic, have pre-existing respiratory conditions, etc.. In between it is somewhat unpredictable. Most recover after a week or two with no after effects but a certain % (including people who were previously fit and with no comorbidities) have lingering after effects. Something like 20% are not ready to resume their normal activities after 2 weeks. When you apply these percentages to a large population like that of the US, this adds up to hundreds of thousands of deaths and millions of people with long term (ranging from months to years to lifetime ) impairment.

    What is amusing to me is that the same people who poo poo the long term effects and risk of death from Covid speculate wildly over the possible side effects of the vaccine. People are really lousy at assessing relative risks and wildly overestimate some and underestimate others.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    @Jack D

    You seem oblivious to the fact that our research community operates under a reign of terror so the level of confidence you credit to all the facts you cite is entirely unwarranted.

    In such situations those who fail to give at least some weight to their own experiences (in my case still not knowing anyone who even knows anyone*, empty ERs and nearly empty ICUs, mysteriously unable to get an order for a COVID test when I’m regularly tested for everything under the sun, schools terrified to do anything in the face of even the recognized science).

    Situation not normal.

    * - now some of the people I know know some people who at least think they had it, but of course the article about all the false positives from the highly reputable source has now gone down the memory hole like everything else.

    Replies: @Jack D

  126. @Citizen of a Silly Country
    Steve,

    This is beneath you, and, frankly, saddening. Only the tin-hat crowd ever claimed the Covid-19 wasn't real.

    Yes, Steve, Covid-19 is real. You got us.

    Okay, back to adult world, which, inexplicably, you seem to have abandoned on this subject. The question with Covid was never "Is it real?" but was "How bad is it, and what is the cost/benefit of various measures to slow its spread?"

    Covid appears to be on track to accelerating (not generally causing) the deaths of an additional ~320k Americans (funny how that term no longer means much to me), i.e. 0.1% of the population. That's no joke, but it's not the Black Death either.

    But the question was always (and remains) how many people would have died (actually, had their death accelerated) if we had simply warned vulnerable groups to be careful and let the virus spread quickly among the healthy population vs how many people would have died (sorry, had their deaths accelerated) if we had massive shutdowns?

    In addition, we would consider the negative externalities of a shutdown, such as businesses being destroyed, increased suicides, increased substance abuse, kids not learning because they're not in school, increased domestic abuse, etc.

    Then, we would weigh to the expected number of additional accelerated deaths (admittedly, a guess) vs all of those negative consequences (again, a guess). Because, you know, that's what serious adults do. We make hard choices based on the facts available.

    Instead, we had Harpies (and some internet pundits) throwing logic and facts out the window and demanding the world shut down for an admittedly very, very nasty flu-like virus because, well, because they didn't like it.

    Steve, wake up! Instead of showing a graph pretty much all of us have seen, why don't you analyze the numbers. This post is marginally - and just marginally - above the Today Show ladies clutching their pearls about the rising case count. Jesus, it's embarrassing.

    You're one of the best columnists of the past 30 years, a person who's writings hopefully will be read by (White) generations to come. Don't let it end this way.

    Replies: @Kaz, @vhrm, @Old Prude, @Anon, @OutsideMan, @Anon87

    How can this be when we are all diapered up all the time? Diaper harder, everyone! Diaper harder!

    • LOL: Trinity
  127. @Desiderius
    @obwandiyag

    We’re all adults here.

    Imagining oneself to have cornered that particular market is a decidedly adolescent affectation.

    Replies: @Jack D

    We’re all adults here.

    You could have fooled me. It’s possible for reasonable (adult) men to differ over important questions such as whether the costs of the lockdowns outweigh their benefits or whether it is wise to take a newly approved vaccine, but some people here, especially on the “it’s just the flu”/anti-vaxx side have behaved more like dogs frightened of going to the vet than adult humans capable of reason. If you allow fear to take over your brain, it becomes difficult to have an adult conversation.

    • LOL: Old Prude
    • Replies: @Desiderius
    @Jack D

    No fool like a willing fool, Jack.

    Your fondness, and naturally that of your age and socioeconomic cohort, for the presumption of regularity is no substitute for a clear-eyed empirical skepticism borne out of years of noticing certain fundamental inputs tending toward the irregular.

    The absence of irregularity altogether would itself be highly irregular historically, so it’s only prudent to keep an eye out for places we are most likely to be missing it.

    , @Old Prude
    @Jack D

    Right-o, Jack: The “It’s just the flu” crowd is addled by fear. Did you really write that?

    Oooo-Kay, then...

    Replies: @MGB, @BenKenobi

  128. @Luke Lea
    It would be good to go back many more years for perspective. Also, how many of those excess deaths are due to lockdown? And will there be below average deaths in the period following the epidemic, because of the most vulnerable dying a little sooner than otherwise?

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Hypnotoad666, @JR Ewing, @stillCARealist

    I know nobody who has died of this virus, and only one who had long-term complications. For everyone else the reality is a somewhere between a mild cold and a bad flu.

    However, I do know many people who have died this year of non-Covid deaths, from cancer to heart problems, to old age, and even an unborn baby (sob). There’s been more memorials this year than I’ve ever seen in my middle age and there’s still more of December to get through, ack. Two friends are in the hospital right now, one with a bum heart, and the other is on a suicide watch (Thanks lockdown for ruining her career and life!).

    So my conclusion is this is a big death year. virus or not, there were going to be more deaths for a ton of reasons that we’ll only comprehend with careful study in the years ahead. Ain’t none of us getting out of this alive.

  129. @utu
    @Mike Tre

    No data on suicides in the US for 2020. In Australia that had strict lockdowns there its no change in suicides.
    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(20)30435-1/fulltext

    In Japan where they did not have lockdowns suicides declined by 12% in the first five months of the epidemic and increased by 13% from July to September
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.30.20184168v3.full.pdf

    and recent reports indicate that in October there was a huge 39.9% spike from October 2019. Among women it was 80% increase.
    https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h00864/

    Could one reverse the argument not infrequently heard here that covid does not kill people but their accompanying diseases, particularly the self-inflicted ones like obesity, high blood pressure and diabetes do and say that lockdowns and economic hardships do not suicide people but their accompanying mental health problems do? Obviously neither is valid nor fair. The suicides need to be accounted as a part of the cost of the epidemic and countermeasures.

    Replies: @Mike Tre

    Please keep your daily covid church services out of replies to me.
    As I am sure social distancing is one of your sacraments, please do so with me.
    Amen, I mean stay safe, or whatever you people say to each other at the end of mass.

  130. @RichardTaylor
    @HA

    There are important voices that agree with you. This woman gets it:

    https://twitter.com/shanermurph/status/1335756575605202944

    Replies: @Old Prude, @HA, @Achmed E. Newman

    What is she so worked up about? It’s just the flu, honey. (I wonder how many cooties she got on those people).

  131. @PiltdownMan
    @Anonymous

    I knew three people who died of Covid-19. One was a relative by marriage, in his early 60s, another, a college friend about the same age, and the third, a 93 year old father of another college buddy. All were well, and had no medical issues or chronic conditions prior to their illness.

    Replies: @Buck Ransom, @Old Prude, @Hippopotamusdrome

    I know many people who have gotten COVID. I don’t know one who had anything worse than the flu, much less died. Over the same time I know at least three people who died from non COVID.

    When will the hysteria stop so we can get on with living?

    • Replies: @PiltdownMan
    @Old Prude

    One anecdotal deserves another, I figured. As you did, after I posted. We could keep going in circles, forever.


    When will the hysteria stop so we can get on with living?
     
    When we get a populace, governing class, intelligentsia, and mass media that aren't addicted to it for psychological sustenance.
  132. @prosa123
    @Steve Sailer

    NYC never locked down its subway but ridership still dropped 90%. It’s almost as if people make decisions about what’s in their individual best interest…

    In early May the transit authority made the unprecedented step of ending 24/7 service and shut down subway service from 1 am to 5 am each day. Ostensibly it's for "deep cleaning" while in reality it's a means of keeping out skells, who had been moving into the trains in huge numbers and using them as bedrooms and, to a disturbing extent, restrooms.

    Overall ridership numbers never quite dropped by 90%. Ridership declines vary by line and by station, and systemwide seem to be in the 65% to 70% range. As a general rule Manhattan stations have seen the heaviest fare count drops, while local ridership numbers in the other boroughs have dropped by much lesser amounts. The transit authority makes weekly station fare count data available, though the numbers can be difficult to interpret. One thing to remember is that unlike many other transit systems the NYC subway does not require turnstile swipes on exit, so tracking ridership is more complicated that elsewhere.

    Something which may seem odd is that most trains keep running, albeit without passengers, during the overnight shutdown hours. As the system was designed for 24/7 operation there is far too little yard space to store trains during extended shutdowns. In addition, transit workers use the otherwise passenger-less trains to get to the terminals to start their morning shifts.

    Replies: @Jack D

    These are all interesting points, but they don’t negate Steve’s main point that even in the absence of government mandated lockdowns, people were and are staying away from public places anyway. So a lot of what people are blaming on the government really should be blamed on the disease itself (although OTOH you could argue that even that is due to gov/media created panic). If you recall February, there were no lockdowns but the Northeast big city restaurants (esp. Chinese restaurants) had already emptied out and the Dem mayors were pleading with people not to be racists and to come to Chinatown and enjoy their dinners (but people didn’t listen and business sucked anyway). (Of course it is all memory holed that Dems were against lockdowns before they were for them).

    Transit may not be the best example because if your workplace is closed then of course you are not going to commute to it, so the drop in ridership is not entirely voluntary but a side effect of the lockdown.

  133. @Steve Sailer
    @vhrm

    NYC never locked down its subway but ridership still dropped 90%. It's almost as if people make decisions about what's in their individual best interest...

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @prosa123, @stillCARealist, @Redman

    What? If people’s jobs and events are canceled, why would they be riding the subway like they used to?

  134. @Ryan Andrews
    @Steve Sailer

    Right. That's why we probably should not expect a trough of deaths over the next few years. We'll likely be paying the price for these lockdowns for years, decades. It's not just the skipped medical visits, but the social, economic, and educational fallout will exert a negative pull on life expectancy for most of the rest of the century. We're seeing reports of schools where 40% of the grades are Fs. 40%.

    A couple observations:
    Why would the baseline assumption for deaths this year be lower than the last few years, as the graph suggests? The population is only getting larger and older, so I would assume the default assumption would be for the number of deaths to tick-up a bit every year.

    To me, the worst part of the pandemic hysteria is that at no point have "The Experts" bothered to offer a liming principle to their madness. What is the standard for when we have to mask-up, ban large public gatherings, etc? Maybe I'm out-of-touch, but imagining we had been given an accurate assessment of the situation beforehand—there's going to be a new and highly contagious virus circulating for the next year or two and we expect the mortality rate to be 10-20% higher, the profile of the people dying will be the same as usual, but there will 10-20% more of them—I would think that the average person would react to that by saying, "Wow, that sucks," and not give the matter a whole lot more thought. Of course we would hear about it in the news from time-to-time, and maybe we'd go out a bit less because of it, but I certainly would not expect the reaction to be anything like this.

    Now we know that a 10-20% increase in the mortality rate means that movie theaters, concert venues, and sporting areas must all be shuddered, and we must wear masks into the few public venues that are open, which may or may no include restaurants and schools. Well, ok, but what about when a bug comes around that causes a 5% increase in mortality? Do we continue as normal? Or do some of the measures we're doing now kick-in again? Or do all of them kick-in? What about a 2% increase in mortality? Do we have to wear masks every flu season? Should we stop holding large indoor public gatherings during flu season, or maybe all together? What are the standards going forward?

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Joseph Doaks

    “What are the standards going forward?”

    This is really the key question. The CDC and the WHO are both highly politicized, and the university researchers are in the pay of Big Pharma. Where will sane and reasonable policies come from?

    • Agree: Dutch Boy
  135. @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @epebble

    15 million have tested positive, but most people did not bother to get tested. The CDC estimates that about 100 million Americans were infected with COVID 19. When the virus was spreading rapidly thru the tri-State area in April it was difficult to get tested here in NJ. You to wait for hours in long lines, and they were not testing asymptomatic people. Many people were turned away from the testing centers and told to come back tomorrow because they ran out of swabs...and Everyone we knew who got sick in April stayed home, nobody wanted to go to the hospital when they had no effective treatments.

    Replies: @Redman, @epebble

    I got Covid on 3/10 here in NYC. The only people I know who had Covid got it around that same time, give or take a couple weeks. When I went to the doctor on 3/12 (after starting to feel a bit better) they didn’t even have a test to give me. I only “confirmed” that I had had Covid a month ago with an antibody test.

    I suspect that well over 50% of the NYC population has had it by now, and most either had mild flu-like symptoms or their T-cells fought off the infection. Today, Manhattan’s PCR positivity rate is a mere 2.5% with thousands of tests being given daily. Yet the midtown area continues to look like a post-apocalyptic nightmare.

    • Thanks: vhrm
  136. @anon
    Steve, thank you for the sensible coverage on the topic. And also tolerating the comments of those that consider it a scamdemic (for lack of a better concise description). As a result, people who have followed the topic here have been exposed to an unusually broad set of viewpoints. Which is rare these days.

    To me, the most compelling argument that it is the disease itself that blows up modern, developed economies (as opposed to irrational responses) is the fact that it has been extremely difficult in all countries. Starting with China and covering the globe. Otherwise, I would have been highly suspicious of anti Trump deep staters. Not that they didn't actively resist each and every measure tried by Trump. Even the countries that have done better than average found it extremely challenging.

    Replies: @Redman

    Except the deep state’s real enemy isn’t (just) Trump. It’s populism and Trump’s supporters. Which is the same enemy of the ruling elites in all of the western countries that went along with the bizarre lockdown plan in the name of science.

    Maybe you should broaden your skeptical perceptions.

  137. @Hypnotoad666
    @Luke Lea

    What the hell happened in January 2018? That month had more deaths than any month this entire year except April.

    Replies: @Billy Shears

    I would guess bad flu season picked off a lot of the vulnerable. Notice the next years winter peak is below average.

    • Replies: @Polynikes
    @Billy Shears

    You are correct

  138. Transit may not be the best example because if your workplace is closed then of course you are not going to commute to it, so the drop in ridership is not entirely voluntary but a side effect of the lockdown.

    Which is why the biggest declines in subway traffic have been in Manhattan, with so many people working from home. I’m really wondering why so many companies are continuing to allow WFH when they’re so often stuck paying expensive rent on empty office space. Commercial leases aren’t one-year deals like with apartments, but can last for ten years or longer.

  139. @Jack D
    @Desiderius


    We’re all adults here.
     
    You could have fooled me. It's possible for reasonable (adult) men to differ over important questions such as whether the costs of the lockdowns outweigh their benefits or whether it is wise to take a newly approved vaccine, but some people here, especially on the "it's just the flu"/anti-vaxx side have behaved more like dogs frightened of going to the vet than adult humans capable of reason. If you allow fear to take over your brain, it becomes difficult to have an adult conversation.

    Replies: @Desiderius, @Old Prude

    No fool like a willing fool, Jack.

    Your fondness, and naturally that of your age and socioeconomic cohort, for the presumption of regularity is no substitute for a clear-eyed empirical skepticism borne out of years of noticing certain fundamental inputs tending toward the irregular.

    The absence of irregularity altogether would itself be highly irregular historically, so it’s only prudent to keep an eye out for places we are most likely to be missing it.

  140. @Steve Sailer
    @Travis

    So that's why deaths climbed 40% from early March to the second week in April?

    Replies: @RVS, @Travis, @MGB, @Anon

    You have no idea why there are as many deaths this year, so far. None. But to imply that the lockdowns have had no impact on deaths of despair is another sign of your generational narcissism. Instead of myopic bar graphs, why don’t you provide us with some verifiable statistics for Covid deaths. Not deaths with Covid. Not deaths with an accompanying PCR test proving the existence of viral debris in an 80-year old nursing home resident with a history of congestive heart failure and alzheimer’s. There are no such statistics as far as I know. And just as important, no one seems interested in finding out why the most advanced country in the world when it comes to medical science cannot come up with a uniform policy on masking, transmission (or not) of the virus by asymptomatic v. symptomatic infected. (Fauci alone has changed his tune several times on these matters, never mind the fact that he is regularly seen not wearing a mask in public after advising everyone else to wear one.) I am not a virus denier, however I am humble enough to know that I don’t know exactly what is going on, and a couple of bar graphs, or references to the ‘12%’ as proof of the seriousness of the virus and illness is disingenuous at best. (You know why the US has 4% of the world population, while it has almost 20% of reported Covid deaths? No, you don’t know. No one does. I suspect it has to do with the piss poor state of health of Americans, and the way we count Covid deaths, but that’s just a guess based on co-morbidity statistics and other factors.) And why does the average age of a Covid decedent seem to be consistent with life expectancy statistics? The BBC, for example, reported in October that for Scotland that “the age profile for those dying with Covid was significantly older than that for deaths in general.” In my state, the average age of a Covid reported death is equal to the average life expectancy. Wouldn’t it make sense that there are more deaths this year because, as others have pointed out, the Boomers (the pig in the birth rate python) are starting to approach their average life expectancy? I don’t know, and neither do you, but you at any rate don’t seem interested in the question.

    It is an unappealing characteristic of the science types who insist that something must be done, when in fact they still have no idea what they are dealing with. And the condescending attitude towards those who do deny the existence of or seriousness of the virus is nauseating. When people are constantly lied to, after a while they begin to make up their own narratives to deal with what is going on. Why am I losing my job while all these smug yuppies are still making their comfortable six figures working in their pyjamas at their computer at home? Why does the stock market seem to have no connection to the economy as a whole during this crisis? Why is my elderly mother being shut up in a medical prison for the last months of her life, dying surrounded by strangers in hazmat suits? Trump is a buffoon but to lay blame at his feet for ‘mass murder’ is ludicrous, and is just part of the spoiled sportery of liberal asses who cannot get over the fact that their preferred candidate lost, or that anyone without a master’s degree might disagree with their perspective on the world.

    • Agree: Thoughts
    • Thanks: Achmed E. Newman
  141. not this bullshit again. at this point we’re just getting a glimpse into the boomer mind.

    18 million posts about a virus that he doesn’t want to die from and won’t let the rest of us live our lives either until he’s safe. a thousand posts about baseball statistics. 1 or 2 posts about the biggest election fraud in US history and the clear transition of America into a third world country from Mr Statistics himself.

    BOOMERS LOST US THE COUNTRY. boomers have largely been in control for over 30 years now , and are the main reason we have now lost about a decade of economic activity to a minor virus with a 99.9% survival rate. shut down everything forever, they commanded. give up all hard fought American freedoms for a pissant virus that will come and go in a year or two. leftist politicians will NEVER give up the powers they have assumed during the 2020 virus scare, but at least boomers will eek out a few more years, and that’s what matters.

    the greatest gen and silent gen are NOT the main reason we lost the country to leftists.

    • Replies: @Trinity
    @prime noticer

    WRONG. I, and many Boomers WANT YOU TO LIVE YOUR LIFE AND ENJOY BEING YOUNG. AND YOU ARE DEAD WRONG ABOUT THE GREATEST GENERATION AND THE SILENT GENERATION, as much damage as SOME SELLOUT boomers have done to America, they contributed not 1/100th of the damage the so-called greatest generation did and when you add the additional damage done by the silent generation, you have to be kidding me. And WHAT ABOUT THE LOSERS THAT CAME AFTER THE BABY BOOMERS. The post Baby Boomer generations might very well end up putting the nail in the coffin of what was once America. I will match up the Baby Boomers worst against those who came before us or after us. Anyone who criticizes the baby boomers causes my Jewdar alarm to sound. IF you decide to be dumb enuff to go along with this corona horseshit, that is on you, not anyone else. Man up and live your life like you want and quit being a soy boy listening to others tell you how to live. smdh in utter disgust. I can't go out because of "corona" wah, wah, wah, you can do whatever the hell you want.

    How many Baby Boomers do you see marching with Antifa by the way?

    Replies: @MGB

    , @anonymous
    @prime noticer


    boomers have largely been in control
     
    This country should be run by people in their teens and twenties. It would be handled much better. Don't trust anyone over thirty.

    Replies: @My SIMPLE Pseudonymic Handle

  142. @Anonymous
    I live in a city with millions. All this would be more believable if I knew of a single person who died from it. LOL

    Yeah a few grandpas in their late 70s got sick but got over it.

    But I’m sure there’s an uptick, what you’d expect with kind of a bad bug going around. It happens. No reason to destroy the country. And overall, I’m sorry, but this was no biggie.

    Replies: @PiltdownMan, @dataBro, @Lurker, @My SIMPLE Pseudonymic Handle, @Occasional lurker

    Anecdote alert! I work in an extended group of over 100 people, some were furloughed for a while but other than that we worked all year mixing with the public. None of us have got ill and tested positive. None of us have died. I was sent home with a cold for a day or two in March – just in case.

    • Agree: Desiderius
  143. @Mark G.
    @utu


    Denmark has comparable fraction of foreign born residents (14%) to Sweden while Norway has higher fraction (16%) than Sweden.

     

    According to the following article, Sweden has a much higher number of immigrants than other Scandinavian countries, both in absolute terms and in relation to the population. Sweden has three times as many immigrants as Norway and Denmark.

    https://www.ssb.no/en/befolkning/artikler-og-publikasjoner/_attachment/204333?_ts=1497ab864

    The composition of immigrants also differs. Sweden has taken in many more refugees from poor nonwhite countries than other Scandinavian countries. Many of the immigrants in Norway are people going there for jobs from other EU countries. People who compare total numbers of immigrants without also looking at the composition of immigrants are either not aware of this or are aware of this and are being a bit disingenuous. Sweden also instituted a program to put many of their nonwhite immigrants into nursing home jobs rather than use native workers in those jobs. Not only would native workers probably have done a better job due to higher IQ and better language skills but they would also probably care more about elderly Swedes than immigrants of other ethnic groups and would have done a better job for that reason also.

    Many Americans, especially older ones, still thinks everyone in Sweden looks like members of Abba or characters in an Ingmar Bergman film and have children who look like Pippi Longstocking. That is not the case.

    Replies: @utu

    I am convinced that you are barking at the wrong tree. Bringing up immigrants to account for the factor of 10 difference between Sweden and its neighbors is crazy and it is in fact a red herring as I wrote in the previous comment. I will not be addressing your fantasies on the immigration as factor in mortality discrepancy among Scandinavia countries beyond this comment.

    I looked at the document you have linked (thanks) – Have you read it? If you did you would not present it here in support of your hypothesis.- the data are from 2011 and 2012 and they do not show significant differences among three Scandinavian countries. They have similar number of immigrants (8-15%) (Fig. 2). Denmark has more immigrants from Asia, Africa and S. America than Sweden (Fig.3). Norway and Denmark have more immigrant who lived there less than 3 years than Sweden (Fig. 4), Norway and Sweden have the same number of Somalis per capita (Table 1). Yes, Sweden has more immigrants form Iraq. Norway and Sweden have similar number of immigrants in higher education (Fig.7). Sweden has less employed immigrants (Fig. 9). This can’t imply as you claim that Sweden employs more immigrant who cannot read or speak the language and that would be a reason for greater damage they have done in Sweden.

    • Replies: @Mark G.
    @utu


    This can’t imply as you claim that Sweden employs more immigrant who cannot read or speak the language and that would be a reason for greater damage they have done in Sweden.
     
    Former chief epidemiologist Johan Giesecke explains the failure to protect the elderly in nursing homes with reference to “asylum seekers” and “refugees” on the staff, who “may not always be understanding the information”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/may/01/sweden-coronavirus-strategy-nationalists-Britain

    “We had a huge spread in Stockholm at the beginning, which was much more similar to the spread you saw in London, Amsterdam, and Brussels, which in many ways are more similar to Sweden than our neighboring countries.

    “Stockholm and these other cities have large populations from other countries, which is important because the spread is greater and faster among these populations,” Tegnell said in an interview with the British magazine New Statesman.

    According to the Swedish statistical agency Statistics Sweden and Norwegian Statistics Norway, the proportion of the population with a foreign background according to the Swedish definition, i.e., born abroad or born domestically with two immigrant parents, is about a third in both Stockholm and Oslo.

    Tegnell also said that Sweden, in practice, had a lockdown on a par with neighboring countries – not because of government measures, but because the population changed their habits.

    https://norwaytoday.info/news/tegnell-larger-immigrant-population-led-to-faster-corona-spread-in-stockholm/

    Replies: @HA, @utu

  144. @the one they call Desanex
    @Steve Sailer

    Steve “COWID-19” Sailer sez:

    “If you won’t take the shot, you’re a coward!”
    Black Pot was with Brillo-pad scoured;
    “I’m bright shiny metal,”
    Said Pot to friend Kettle,
    “You’re black!” Their relationship soured.

    Replies: @Dutch Boy

    Really, who would be be concerned about getting an experimental vaccine for a disease that is of no consequence to the large majority? Only cowardice could explain such an attitude!

  145. @Jack D
    @anonymous coward

    Even if you know dozens of people who had Covid, that doesn't mean squat. The number of people in the US alone who have had Covid is in the millions, not dozens. I don't know anyone who died in an auto crash this year (so according to your logic, I can conclude that all car crashes are just fender benders) but in fact every year 35,000 people in the US die in car crashes.

    The effects of Covid seem to vary wildly - kids experience it as a mild cold or sometimes even have no symptoms despite being positive. Old people often die from it, as do middle aged people who are obese, diabetic, have pre-existing respiratory conditions, etc.. In between it is somewhat unpredictable. Most recover after a week or two with no after effects but a certain % (including people who were previously fit and with no comorbidities) have lingering after effects. Something like 20% are not ready to resume their normal activities after 2 weeks. When you apply these percentages to a large population like that of the US, this adds up to hundreds of thousands of deaths and millions of people with long term (ranging from months to years to lifetime ) impairment.

    What is amusing to me is that the same people who poo poo the long term effects and risk of death from Covid speculate wildly over the possible side effects of the vaccine. People are really lousy at assessing relative risks and wildly overestimate some and underestimate others.

    Replies: @Desiderius

    You seem oblivious to the fact that our research community operates under a reign of terror so the level of confidence you credit to all the facts you cite is entirely unwarranted.

    In such situations those who fail to give at least some weight to their own experiences (in my case still not knowing anyone who even knows anyone*, empty ERs and nearly empty ICUs, mysteriously unable to get an order for a COVID test when I’m regularly tested for everything under the sun, schools terrified to do anything in the face of even the recognized science).

    Situation not normal.

    * – now some of the people I know know some people who at least think they had it, but of course the article about all the false positives from the highly reputable source has now gone down the memory hole like everything else.

    • Agree: Redman
    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Desiderius

    Giving weight to your own experiences on matters of national scope can be misleading because we all tend to live in a certain social/economic/regional bubble. Remember Pauline Kael, the New Yorker film critic who didn't understand how it was possible that Nixon had been elected President since no one she knew voted for him? I can tell you that the opioid crisis is not real because I don't know a single junkie personally.

    And in the case of Covid, the first wave especially was very spotty. New York, and in particular parts of Queens, was badly infected while certainly flyover states (many of the ones being hit hard now) were largely untouched.

    As far as the research community living under a reign of terror, in certain areas (e.g. if you were interested in investigating the genetic roots of the black IQ differential or whether gayness is a mental illness) you are correct but I have seen nothing that indicates that there has been any obstacles to legitimate scientific work on Covid (outside of China).

    Replies: @Desiderius

  146. @Ron Unz

    And December is likely to be pretty bad when finally counted up sometime in February.
     
    Yep. Many of the writers (and perhaps most of the commenters) on this website seem to have a very different view of the dangers of Covid-19 than Steve or myself. Given over-counting and under-counting problems, for months I've been emphasizing that "excess deaths" were the most reliable metric to evaluate the true impact of the epidemic.

    Since October I'd also predicted that such total fatalities might approach 500K by the end of the year. Offhand, it looks like we easily broke 350K by the end of November, and given the terrible numbers so far in December, my projection might not be too far off.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Dutch Boy, @BobX, @AnotherDad, @Hippopotamusdrome

    There is a justifiable skepticism about government data and recommendations, since the relevant agency (the CDC) is a creature of the pharmaceutical industry and you are all too aware of the nature of that beast.

  147. 20 or 30 years ago i used to dislike the occasional, mild bashing of boomers that i heard once in a while. these days i don’t think they go nearly far enough.

    yes, there were lots of great people in this generation that helped build and expand America too. but holy shit, on average they are BY FAR the most selfish and clueless generation EVER.

    who would argue that at this point? look at how they DESPERATELY cling to power even as they become senile. holding up all the jobs, property, and wealth, and blocking the younger generations from accumulating much. and they’ve mostly gone along with the leftists on every America destroying initiative and campaign.

    • Replies: @hhsiii
    @prime noticer

    LOL, you could replace boomers with white people in that rant. Gib me dats boomers. Stop hogging all the wealth you accumulated.

    I'm not really a boomer, though. Tail end. Born '64

  148. @Steve Sailer
    @vhrm

    NYC never locked down its subway but ridership still dropped 90%. It's almost as if people make decisions about what's in their individual best interest...

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @prosa123, @stillCARealist, @Redman

    Actually, since most of the businesses here were shut down there wasn’t much to take the subway to. Also no tourists. Unfortunately, I don’t think much of this had to do with people making their own choices.

    OTOH, the Metronorth and LIRR (the 2 major suburban rail lines) have been dead since March. Deader than the subways in fact. And continue to be so. That reflects the white collar workforce’s universal permission to work from home, which many if not most have chosen to be in their own best interest.

    • Replies: @hhsiii
    @Redman

    I've been taking the subway on relatively short jaunts. Not to go to work but once a week or so. Midtown is indeed dead but parts of the City have stuff open, mostly bars, restaurants, some shops, Citarella's, etc. Yeah, I'm gettin' on that train like Christopher Walken playing Russian Roulette in Deerhunter all the time. :)

    Speaking of shops, I just went to Phoebe Cates' place on Madison and 91st to pick up some xmas trinkets. Overpriced but worth it to get a glimpse of Miss Fast Times her own self. She's charming. I do it every xmas.

    Her ancestral name is Katz, btw. 3/4s MOT, 1/4 asian. Didn't turn out bad, eh? A PS 6 grad.

    Replies: @Wielgus

    , @prosa123
    @Redman

    OTOH, the Metronorth and LIRR (the 2 major suburban rail lines) have been dead since March. Deader than the subways in fact. And continue to be so. That reflects the white collar workforce’s universal permission to work from home, which many if not most have chosen to be in their own best interest.

    I live not far from one of the busiest LIRR stations, which has an enormous main parking lot with around 6,000 spaces. In normal times the lot is completely filled by 8am on weekdays. Twice in the last few weeks I've driven through the lot around midday on weekdays, and my very rough estimate is that it was about 30% full both times. So a significant reduction to be sure, but not completely dead by any means.
    The station also has a couple of smaller lots on the other side of the tracks that have maybe 350 to 500 spaces, they were completely full on both my visits. There's also a six-level parking garage, but I wasn't able to see inside other than to note that there were some cars, the garage wasn't empty in other words.
    Further note: there's a sizeable commercial and industrial area south of the station, and judging by cars in parking lots it seems as busy as ever. I woudn't imagine that many of the jobs in that area are suitable for WFH.

  149. @That Would Be Telling
    @Ryan Andrews


    To me, the worst part of the pandemic hysteria is that at no point have “The Experts” bothered to offer a liming principle to their madness. What is the standard for when we have to mask-up, ban large public gatherings, etc?
     
    They're flying blind, and now we know for sure the truth of "Inside of many liberals is a fascist struggling to get out."

    But there is one valid limiting principle, which I see locally in my very red Red state region, and my Red state in general. The metric is hospital capacity, we edge into the new purple zone that's been added beyond red in this current third wave, and we tighten up, mostly by extorting people to take more care about not transmitting it, and leave the coercive measures up to counties and cities. Which remain limited in my immediate region.

    Replies: @Lurker

    Inside of many liberals is a fascist struggling to get out.

    Inside of many liberals is a Stalinist struggling to get out.

  150. @utu
    Questions that should be asked by all those who object to countermeasures.

    (1) How many more deaths would we have if no countermeasures were taken? (2) Could smarter and less intrusive countermeasures produce similar or better results?

    (1) By looking at the very similar Nordic countries we keep the confounding variables to the minimum, so we can get a good idea how effective lockdowns can be by comparing Sweden with its Nordic neighbors.

    https://i.ibb.co/dMdwyfr/Graph1-4-NOrdic.png

    The factor of 10 lower fatality rate in Sweden's neighbors is due to lockdowns and more effective tracing and isolating ability. May we conclude that if the US opted for the Swedish approach, as many here advocate, we would have 2.5 million deaths by now? It is hard to say because we are not doing as well as Finland or Norway and on the other hand the US has higher effective density of population than Sweden and has higher occupancy per apartment in the citries than Sweden so it has lower natural social distance than Sweden. But there is no doubt that the death toll would be significantly higher if the Swedish model was adopted in the US.

    Effective tracing and isolating is the key to success but it can be effective only when the infection rate is low enough to be manageable. For this reason it often had to be preceded by a lockdown which is the fastest way to get the infection rate down to the manageable level. Japan avoided a lockdown because it already had in place an excellent system of tracing and isolating plus they used the universal masking to keep R0 close or below one. Sooner you start the lockdown the better off you are. Italian data show, what any reasonable person would expect, that number of deaths is directly proportional to the number of days from the first case to the start of lockdown. If on the East coast in NY and NJ lockdowns were two weeks earlier the first peak would be greatly attenuated and the lockdowns themselves would be shorter.

    (2) Many things could have been done differently starting in February and March. But there was no vision and no leadership. For instance it was possible still in February or even March to go for the complete elimination of the virus in the continental United States. It would require (1) Five week lockdown, (2) Strict border control with mandatory (no BS) quarantine, (2) Effective tracing and isolating and (4) Universal masking. By the end of May we would be getting back to normal providing that we would keep strict border control and mandatory (no BS) quarantine to prevent virus importation. New Zealand and Taiwan pretty much succeed in the virus elimination strategy. Taiwan's last death (out of 7) was on May 11.

    Instead we are in, what Karlin called, idiot's limbo. Still there is no leadership and no vision except there is now the hope that vaccination will get us out of the limbo.

    Would it be possible to isolate the most vulnerable population and let the majority conduct normal life? In theory yes. But nobody has tried it. Observed reduction of the IFR since the start of the epidemic in several countries suggests that the vulnerable are protected better now.

    Replies: @BenKenobi, @Mark G., @Bert, @peterike, @Anonymous Jew, @AnotherDad

    Would it be possible to isolate the most vulnerable population and let the majority conduct normal life? In theory yes. But nobody has tried it.

    The Trump administration undoubtedly received much vague advice about “flattening the curve” from supposedly competent epidemiologists like Carl Bergstrom. Whether Trump ever saw a plan for isolating the vulnerable while encouraging other citizens to continue as normal we will never know. But I did send such a plan to seven Republican senators in March and also posted it here on Steve Sailer’s comments. It included measures like on-site residence by nursing home staff, and until that was organized by moving mobile homes on site, etc., staffing by military reserves and National Guard personnel. Mandatory but paid home sequestration for everyone over a certain age, unless they were essential workers, e.g., medical personnel or supply-chain supervisors. Two or three openminded people could have created a workable plan in a day or two.

    The fact is that this country currently has no will to handle any public problem, be it an epidemic, the debt load, a Carrington Event, whatever. And I don’t really believe that’s because of any uniquely American moral failure. It results from the intersection of two phenomena.

    The first is the increasing influence of sociopaths in positions of power. Bureaucracies are catnip to the high-functioning sociopaths. In the U.S., bureaucracies are a feature of only the last 80 years, but one that has exerted greater influence every one of those years. Bureaucratic sociopaths don’t want to solve problems but rather are focused on what they can win or lose in a crisis. So no leadership from Government.

    The second phenomenon is a hypothesized mental module that was adaptive in hunter-gatherers. The module monitors one’s local social environment. If social conditions are tolerable, natural selection would work against any psychological tendency to upset the status quo or to leave the group. Only when the module detects truly unsustainable social conditions does it signal an executive function module to do something about what or who is causing the problem. Americans’ lives are not so bad yet that their social condition monitoring-module would signal them to clean out the sociopaths and restructure their government from the sociopathic heaven of democracy to the sociopath’s nightmare of demarchy.

  151. Are these excessive deaths real or just nursing home deaths brought forward? Just asking, not for a friend obviously.

  152. I think that everyone agrees that millions have been terrified to go to the hospital for treatment and simultaneously the medical community has been terrorized into delaying said treatments, in some cases indefinitely.

    If you asked me what the effect of such a development would be a year ago I’d say a 10% or so rise in the death rate, skewed heavily toward the extremes of age and infirmity, and that is what that graph shows.

    Am I just supposed to pretend not to be aware that such a course of action is just what Zeke Emmanuel and many of my savvy doc/public policy friends have been advocating for years?

    • Agree: Travis
    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Desiderius

    That's ridiculous because the treatments that have been deferred (e.g. surgeries for cancer, heart bypasses, etc.) have nothing to do with the increases in reported deaths. Even if you don't believe that these were due to Covid, they were almost all due to respiratory failure. If people were dying because they were afraid to go to the hospital, the excess deaths would be distributed across all the common causes of death.

    I don't know why you are resistant to the common sense understanding of the Covid pandemic but your unwillingness to accept it leads you to feats of pretzel logic because you have to explain away everything that contradicts your POV. It's like what geocentric astronomers had to do in order to explain planetary motion - if you accept that the planets rotate around the sun then their movements in the sky make perfect sense but if you deny that you have to come up with all sorts of epicycles, etc. in order to explain why they keep wandering around the celestial sphere.

    Maybe you could accept that the authorities in the US were in some kind of conspiracy to lie to us and turn us all into Communist zombies controlled by Microsoft or something, but this is a global pandemic. Some of the places that have experienced the pandemic (Russia, Iran, etc.) are ideologically quite different than the US. Are Putin and Rouhani in on the conspiracy too?

    , @SunBakedSuburb
    @Desiderius

    "terrified to go to the hospital"

    I've been dragging the old man in and out of medical centers and specialist units throughout the plandemic. The protocols they follow encourage confidence. It's still a pain in the arse, but the old man was the stepdad who actually paid the rent and filled the refrigerator. Keep your appointments!

    Replies: @Desiderius

  153. @Jack D
    @Desiderius


    We’re all adults here.
     
    You could have fooled me. It's possible for reasonable (adult) men to differ over important questions such as whether the costs of the lockdowns outweigh their benefits or whether it is wise to take a newly approved vaccine, but some people here, especially on the "it's just the flu"/anti-vaxx side have behaved more like dogs frightened of going to the vet than adult humans capable of reason. If you allow fear to take over your brain, it becomes difficult to have an adult conversation.

    Replies: @Desiderius, @Old Prude

    Right-o, Jack: The “It’s just the flu” crowd is addled by fear. Did you really write that?

    Oooo-Kay, then…

    • Replies: @MGB
    @Old Prude

    “It’s just the flu” crowd is addled by fear.

    That's some retort that JackD and Stevo have come up with because their feelings have been hurt. Here's the translation: "I know you are but what am I?". Not to worry, they'll have a vaccine to prevent hurt feelings soon enough.

    , @BenKenobi
    @Old Prude

    Now we have the "It's Just A Totally Safe and Definitely Necessary Vaccine, Bro" crowd.

  154. @Stan d Mute
    Rather than repeating the excellent comments above and in previous threads, I will come right out with it.

    WTF if wrong with you Steve? You are, for perhaps the first time in the 20 years I’ve been reading your screeds, in full agreement with your trolls and on the verge of being mocked by your most loyal fans.

    My suspicion is that you harbor some intense personal fear that you are unable to subsume in objectivity. I doubt it is your cancer history because I would rather have my cancer back, see remission vanish, and deal with metastasis than see the bullshit viral panic festival for milquetoast jacobins continue. Is it your parents? Spouse or kids? We can all forgive you cowering and trembling in terror, soaked in your own urine, shrieking “the virus is falling!” if the neurosis is rooted in something like that.

    Replies: @John Achterhof, @Sam Malone, @Servant of Gla'aki

    Uncalled for, man. I’m skeptical of the cost of the lockdowns too and can’t help feeling a little contemptuous of all the unctuous sermonizing on the dangers of letting human life going on as normal, but insulting Steve so vituperatively and personally simply for leaning the other way – particularly after the all the years of outstanding insight and commentary he’s given us – is totally necessary and doesn’t reflect well on you or your mindset. Just dial it down a little, Steve’s our guy.

    • LOL: 3g4me
  155. @HA
    @Achmed E. Newman

    "Really, that graph doesn’t look scary at all."

    So what? The graph is of those we DIDN'T save. The fact that locking down and distancing and masking managed to keep the death rates at what you claim is a "not scary at all" level is just, if anything, a high-five for those who mandated all those restrictions.

    In other words, if you were trying to shoot yourself in the foot, that was pretty good aim.

    The scarier graph is the one that showing how many WOULD have died with let-'er-rip. If you want to pretend that's not in the 7 figures (which would have been a lot easier to argue before the number we didn't save got as high as it did) then go and show it. As it is, the fact that the first peak -- the one that happened before the lockdowns really got underway -- is the scariest one is going to make that effort all the more difficult.

    Likewise, arguing over whether those those we didn't save from COVID is larger than those who died because of what was done to prevent that 7-figure death toll is not going to help you, either. Neither is trying to compare the ones we didn't save from COVID to the let-'er-rip deaths from the Hong Kong flu. Apples and oranges.

    The fact that you keep mixing these numbers up makes your argument all the more pathetic. But again, if that's what you were trying to do, then just keep on doing it.

    Replies: @anonymous coward, @Catdog, @Achmed E. Newman

    You are justifying panick because more people *didn’t* die.

    • Replies: @HA
    @Catdog

    "You are justifying panick because more people *didn’t* die."

    I'm justifying -- on the basis of gene sequencing, epidemiological models and contact tracing reports -- the existence of a disease that, if allowed to go unchecked, will take out a million people or more in this country alone. At this point, you need to start saving up the "panick" name-calling for all the little snowflakes who are already melting down at the thought of getting a jab full of ground up bits of a virus that they claim isn't anything to be concerned about even in its pristine "live" form. Now THAT is some genuine panick.

    Sure, I suppose we could have asked -- for the sake of that dear economy we all love so much -- for all the old people to please step out onto the ice floe, along with diabetics, the obese, the hypertensive, asthmatics, and who knows who else, to see if a winning election campaign could be fashioned out of that. We could also have asked everyone else paying for their own Obamacare policy to pony up an extra 10-30K if they happened to land in an ICU unit (note this doesn't apply to all the groups who expect Medicaid and Medicare to pay for that), but that might have gotten some resistance as well. And I've already noted that "let's do it like Sweden" isn't a realistic option for anyone who has even tried to think this through, given how much it depends on the government being willing to pay you for your sick-leave and being a high-trust society in general.

    So, if anything like that is the best you've got by way of an alternate approach, I can see why it hasn't gotten more traction.

  156. @utu
    Questions that should be asked by all those who object to countermeasures.

    (1) How many more deaths would we have if no countermeasures were taken? (2) Could smarter and less intrusive countermeasures produce similar or better results?

    (1) By looking at the very similar Nordic countries we keep the confounding variables to the minimum, so we can get a good idea how effective lockdowns can be by comparing Sweden with its Nordic neighbors.

    https://i.ibb.co/dMdwyfr/Graph1-4-NOrdic.png

    The factor of 10 lower fatality rate in Sweden's neighbors is due to lockdowns and more effective tracing and isolating ability. May we conclude that if the US opted for the Swedish approach, as many here advocate, we would have 2.5 million deaths by now? It is hard to say because we are not doing as well as Finland or Norway and on the other hand the US has higher effective density of population than Sweden and has higher occupancy per apartment in the citries than Sweden so it has lower natural social distance than Sweden. But there is no doubt that the death toll would be significantly higher if the Swedish model was adopted in the US.

    Effective tracing and isolating is the key to success but it can be effective only when the infection rate is low enough to be manageable. For this reason it often had to be preceded by a lockdown which is the fastest way to get the infection rate down to the manageable level. Japan avoided a lockdown because it already had in place an excellent system of tracing and isolating plus they used the universal masking to keep R0 close or below one. Sooner you start the lockdown the better off you are. Italian data show, what any reasonable person would expect, that number of deaths is directly proportional to the number of days from the first case to the start of lockdown. If on the East coast in NY and NJ lockdowns were two weeks earlier the first peak would be greatly attenuated and the lockdowns themselves would be shorter.

    (2) Many things could have been done differently starting in February and March. But there was no vision and no leadership. For instance it was possible still in February or even March to go for the complete elimination of the virus in the continental United States. It would require (1) Five week lockdown, (2) Strict border control with mandatory (no BS) quarantine, (2) Effective tracing and isolating and (4) Universal masking. By the end of May we would be getting back to normal providing that we would keep strict border control and mandatory (no BS) quarantine to prevent virus importation. New Zealand and Taiwan pretty much succeed in the virus elimination strategy. Taiwan's last death (out of 7) was on May 11.

    Instead we are in, what Karlin called, idiot's limbo. Still there is no leadership and no vision except there is now the hope that vaccination will get us out of the limbo.

    Would it be possible to isolate the most vulnerable population and let the majority conduct normal life? In theory yes. But nobody has tried it. Observed reduction of the IFR since the start of the epidemic in several countries suggests that the vulnerable are protected better now.

    Replies: @BenKenobi, @Mark G., @Bert, @peterike, @Anonymous Jew, @AnotherDad

    If on the East coast in NY and NJ lockdowns were two weeks earlier the first peak would be greatly attenuated and the lockdowns themselves would be shorter.

    Except that after a huge spike (due largely to horrendously bad policy), the death rates in NY and NJ fell to almost nothing for months (hey, summer!), yet little changed in the political response. And now it’s rising again (hey, winter is here!) while things have been locked and masked and distanced non-stop since March.

    Observed reduction of the IFR since the start of the epidemic in several countries suggests that the vulnerable are protected better now.

    Or that the virus isn’t nearly are dangerous as it was at the start. We aren’t seeing many of those “I got the virus and was really ill for five weeks” stories anymore. Mostly everyone just shrugs it off now. My guess is that Covid “deaths” being recorded now are even more ludicrously over-counted then they were at the start of this fiasco.

  157. @Ron Unz

    And December is likely to be pretty bad when finally counted up sometime in February.
     
    Yep. Many of the writers (and perhaps most of the commenters) on this website seem to have a very different view of the dangers of Covid-19 than Steve or myself. Given over-counting and under-counting problems, for months I've been emphasizing that "excess deaths" were the most reliable metric to evaluate the true impact of the epidemic.

    Since October I'd also predicted that such total fatalities might approach 500K by the end of the year. Offhand, it looks like we easily broke 350K by the end of November, and given the terrible numbers so far in December, my projection might not be too far off.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Dutch Boy, @BobX, @AnotherDad, @Hippopotamusdrome

    So does this mean you are open to an annual US border shutdown drill? I suggest we take a week in December each year to practice pandemic border shutdown preparedness. Every 5th or 10th year perhaps we should extend it for the whole month.

    A US with actual control of it border, what a strange world that would be.

    Given my health history I am with Steve & Ron on personal reaction to Wuflu I have no desire to have my inevitable death “accelerated” as one of the other posters so callously put it.

  158. @anonymous coward
    @HA


    The fact that locking down and distancing and masking managed to keep the death rates at what you claim is a “not scary at all” level is just, if anything, a high-five for those who mandated all those restrictions.
     
    Covid deaths are due to autoimmune reactions. Masks and lockdown do absolutely nothing to fight against autoimmune disorders.

    The masks and lockdowns didn't save a single person from Covid.

    Replies: @HA, @John Achterhof

    “Covid deaths are due to autoimmune reactions….”

    If you mean cytokine storms, then a good way to avoid dying from those is to avoid coming down with COVID.

    “The masks and lockdowns didn’t save a single person from Covid.”

    Not a single person, you say? That’s the hill you want to die on? If this that’s the most convincing case you can make, then again, it’s no wonder that what you call “hysteria” won out, especially given the above graph. If you want to blame anyone for that loss, look within.

  159. @Desiderius
    @Jack D

    You seem oblivious to the fact that our research community operates under a reign of terror so the level of confidence you credit to all the facts you cite is entirely unwarranted.

    In such situations those who fail to give at least some weight to their own experiences (in my case still not knowing anyone who even knows anyone*, empty ERs and nearly empty ICUs, mysteriously unable to get an order for a COVID test when I’m regularly tested for everything under the sun, schools terrified to do anything in the face of even the recognized science).

    Situation not normal.

    * - now some of the people I know know some people who at least think they had it, but of course the article about all the false positives from the highly reputable source has now gone down the memory hole like everything else.

    Replies: @Jack D

    Giving weight to your own experiences on matters of national scope can be misleading because we all tend to live in a certain social/economic/regional bubble. Remember Pauline Kael, the New Yorker film critic who didn’t understand how it was possible that Nixon had been elected President since no one she knew voted for him? I can tell you that the opioid crisis is not real because I don’t know a single junkie personally.

    And in the case of Covid, the first wave especially was very spotty. New York, and in particular parts of Queens, was badly infected while certainly flyover states (many of the ones being hit hard now) were largely untouched.

    As far as the research community living under a reign of terror, in certain areas (e.g. if you were interested in investigating the genetic roots of the black IQ differential or whether gayness is a mental illness) you are correct but I have seen nothing that indicates that there has been any obstacles to legitimate scientific work on Covid (outside of China).

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    @Jack D

    You’ve seen nothing alright.

    Took until last week for a study to finally look at the actual HCQ treatment regimen docs have been using all along and sure enough works great.

    I remember Megan McArdle, usually the voice of reason and well measured respectability, dunking all over anyone who even thought about HCQ while requesting literature on abolishing police.

    All this shit is off. Flu disappearance, research on asymptomatic spread (Nature said last week not a thing) systematically ignored, false positives, NY temporary hospitals/hospital ship empty at height of deaths, ICU utilization below average even in areas supposedly slammed.

    As with the election it’s as if someone or something is trying to overload the noticers. In that spirit I’m glad Steve is providing the null hypothesis if for nothing else than comparison sake. Still prudent to Peter Lynch this thing too given the interesting times.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  160. If the Rona is so deadly to the older set, why hasn’t a single geriatric Congress person died? Or even really been sick, that we know of?

    The one benefit of this thing would have been wiping out a huge percentage of the over 70 Senators and Representatives. That might even have made the bullshit lockdowns and other farcical nonsense worth the trouble. Yet none of them croaked, as far as I know. Just dumb luck, or something else?

    • Replies: @Kaz
    @peterike

    Did you consider that they're being extremely cautious?

  161. @RichardTaylor
    @HA

    There are important voices that agree with you. This woman gets it:

    https://twitter.com/shanermurph/status/1335756575605202944

    Replies: @Old Prude, @HA, @Achmed E. Newman

    “There are important voices that agree with you.”

    You really think that the anti-maskers are going to win the viral video sympathy wars? Let’s just say that they’ve got a lot of catching up to do.

    But then, you’re the same expert who told us that far fewer than 5,000 would die from this thing once it was over and done with. Let’s check the above graph and see how that prediction played out.

  162. By late Spring, as substance abuse, suicide, fast cancers, preventable stroke/heart attack, diabetes, prostate, malnutrition related infectious disease, ovarian, and about 1 million other preventable death maladies begin to multiply, I assume the “because we say it is” upsurge in “Covid-19” deaths will be all the proof the Medical/ Totalitarian goons need to double down, on doubling down , on crushing our Rights and Liberties.

    In the meantime, we can safely ignore the rising tide of Medical Professionals screaming fraud, as they are just conspiracy theorists.

  163. @Desiderius
    I think that everyone agrees that millions have been terrified to go to the hospital for treatment and simultaneously the medical community has been terrorized into delaying said treatments, in some cases indefinitely.

    If you asked me what the effect of such a development would be a year ago I’d say a 10% or so rise in the death rate, skewed heavily toward the extremes of age and infirmity, and that is what that graph shows.

    Am I just supposed to pretend not to be aware that such a course of action is just what Zeke Emmanuel and many of my savvy doc/public policy friends have been advocating for years?

    Replies: @Jack D, @SunBakedSuburb

    That’s ridiculous because the treatments that have been deferred (e.g. surgeries for cancer, heart bypasses, etc.) have nothing to do with the increases in reported deaths. Even if you don’t believe that these were due to Covid, they were almost all due to respiratory failure. If people were dying because they were afraid to go to the hospital, the excess deaths would be distributed across all the common causes of death.

    I don’t know why you are resistant to the common sense understanding of the Covid pandemic but your unwillingness to accept it leads you to feats of pretzel logic because you have to explain away everything that contradicts your POV. It’s like what geocentric astronomers had to do in order to explain planetary motion – if you accept that the planets rotate around the sun then their movements in the sky make perfect sense but if you deny that you have to come up with all sorts of epicycles, etc. in order to explain why they keep wandering around the celestial sphere.

    Maybe you could accept that the authorities in the US were in some kind of conspiracy to lie to us and turn us all into Communist zombies controlled by Microsoft or something, but this is a global pandemic. Some of the places that have experienced the pandemic (Russia, Iran, etc.) are ideologically quite different than the US. Are Putin and Rouhani in on the conspiracy too?

  164. I would respectfully ask all the people arguing here to take 3 minutes and read this VDare John Derbyhire article – Coronavirus Overreaction: Ruling Class Hypocrisy And Absolutism. (It’s not on unz, but I don’t blame that on any unfairness of Ron Unz. He may be damn close to a nutcase, but he is extremely fair in his inclusion of articles).

    It’s really just the 2nd part that I’d like people to read. The hypocricy of the elites during this PanicFest is well known by the commenters here and there’s not much of any argument, I doubt. Mr. Derbyshire has been anti-panic from the beginning, but just mildly so, with a little hedging early on. He’s very civil about it all, even know, as he always is. Peak Stupidity does not stoop to that level of civility.

    I’ve never seen a country act like it’s occupied by a majority of hysterical menopausal women before. Interesting …

    • Thanks: vhrm
    • Replies: @Anon87
    @Achmed E. Newman

    When the elites disappear into their bunkers, panic rooms, pedo islands, etc. is when I might start to think this is serious (for those under 80). By all of their behavior we can be pretty sure this is a bad virus, but nothing to really worry about.

    Makes me wonder, is someone making sure Clint Eastwood is ok and not around anyone close to being infected? That would be a real capper to 2020.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Hippopotamusdrome

  165. @Bardon Kaldian
    It is all tiresome, this counting of deaths, lockdowns,.....

    1. COVID-19 (or C-Chan/CC) is a serious influenza. It kills, perhaps, 3 times more people than any ordinary flue. People, not infrequently, die in agony.

    2. usual talk about "patients with prior conditions" is meaningless. Now, virtually all people have some "conditions", thanks to the advancement of medicine. 100 or 200 years ago, perhaps 30-50% of the population would not be alive. So, the underlying conditions meme is a crap.

    3. medical personnel is highly affected, unlike during other flues.

    4. many CC people seem to suffer prolonged long-term effects after recovery: fatigue, chest pain, depression, painful joints, headaches, impotence, sometimes chronic fatigue syndrome, muscle pain, brain fog, dizziness, ....

    5. it looks like, judging from reliable data, that even harshest measures either don't work at all, or do work, temporarily, due to complete paralysis of a society. I would say that CC mostly, with perhaps some exceptions, is random- it kills, then dies down of itself, and then, it is, probably, resurrected after some time, probably mutated.

    6. masks, generally, don't work. Only physical distance works.

    7. one cannot rely on data from China, Africa & most Latin America.

    So- what is to be done?

    What most countries do already.

    If not, to save economy, life & everything, any serious country should consider life-changing measures:

    1. build instantly 5-10 new CC hospitals in any suspect area.

    2. organize quick education of medical personnel at that, operating level & give them significantly higher wages

    3. continue life as usual in most areas that matter (manufacturing, food production, the military,..)

    4. pass national laws enabling quick & easy euthanasia for all CC patients needing intubation, if necessary.

    5. since panem & circenses has always been the law of the land, continue with entertainment for the masses.

    6. work hard on medicines, vaccines, treatment etc.

    7. work of keeping freedom & security, as much as possible, in these circumstances. Strongly reject proposals by anthill east Asian societies (China, Japan).

    So, you'll preserve a current way of life, with a bit of uber- Belgium/Netherlands measures (euthanasia).

    Replies: @HA

    “6. masks, generally, don’t work. Only physical distance works.”

    It’s true that physical distance (and I don’t mean just the paltry 6 feet we keep pretending is adequate) is preferable to masks, but so far, the evidence indicates that masks do indeed help both in limiting the transmission and also the severity of the disease for those who still catch it despite the maskx.

    Plus, if agreeing to wear mask allows us to witness conniptions like these, then my only gripe is that masks should always be handed out with a side of popcorn.

  166. 51 of the 52 weeks prior to February 2020 had less than expected number of deaths….resulting in more vulnerable , elderly people still alive when COVID hit in March 2020.

    The CDC report released in October stated that excess deaths were estimated at 224,000 to 299,000 excess deaths with 66% due to COVID 19. According to the CDC “adults aged 25–44 years have experienced the largest percentage increase in the number of deaths from all causes from late January through October 3, 2020.” The age distribution of deaths shifted toward younger age groups from May through August; however, these disproportionate increases might also be related to underlying trends in other causes of death.https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm

    “there is uncertainty associated with the models used to generate the expected numbers of deaths in a given week. A range of values for excess death estimates is provided elsewhere, but these ranges might not reflect all of the sources of uncertainty… different methods or models for estimating the expected numbers of deaths might lead to different results.….using the average numbers of deaths from past years might underestimate the total expected numbers because of population growth or aging, or because of increasing trends in certain causes such as drug overdose mortality.

    Using the upper bound of the 95% prediction interval for the expected numbers (the upper bound threshold), an estimated 224,173 excess deaths occurred during this period….Weeks when the observed numbers of deaths were below the average numbers from 2015 to 2019 were excluded from the total numbers of excess deaths above average levels (i.e., negative values were treated as 0 excess deaths).

    basically the CDC structured the study to produce the maximum number of excess deaths and excluded weeks which reported lower than expected deaths. We cannot fully trust the CDC. Excess deaths are probably around 250,000 this year and in 2019 deaths were below 2018.

  167. @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @epebble

    15 million have tested positive, but most people did not bother to get tested. The CDC estimates that about 100 million Americans were infected with COVID 19. When the virus was spreading rapidly thru the tri-State area in April it was difficult to get tested here in NJ. You to wait for hours in long lines, and they were not testing asymptomatic people. Many people were turned away from the testing centers and told to come back tomorrow because they ran out of swabs...and Everyone we knew who got sick in April stayed home, nobody wanted to go to the hospital when they had no effective treatments.

    Replies: @Redman, @epebble

    The CDC estimates that about 100 million Americans were infected with COVID 19.

    If so, we should be on our way to herd immunity even without vaccine. But, I agree, tested positive may not mean a lot, especially if someone is asymptomatic. But, based on deaths, if 500,000 deaths are assumed to be the final count, multiple number of this will be long haulers. If, say, 5 million people become long haulers, that may impact labor force participation rate.

    https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @epebble


    The CDC estimates that about 100 million Americans were infected with COVID 19.

    If so, we should be on our way to herd immunity even without vaccine.
     
    This 8x the number of confirmed infections is one of the very few things outside their all cause mortality accounting that I trust (especially since I've been using an easier to do in your head 10x guess :-). But in previous discussions ... actually, I think it was on Gab, no one could think of an example of something like COVID-19 dying out on its own, whereas we have eradicated smallpox and rinderpest (which is probably where measles came from, anywhere in the 5th to 15th Century) a lot of vaccinations. Of course, way back when, many things might have naturally come and gone and stayed gone.

    Eradication is of course way beyond herd immunity, and note either requires there being no reservoir you can't hit of the disease, why SARS died out (much less transmissible than COVID-19, and that was predominately super spreaders), while MERS is still with us because it comes from camels. Herd immunity for measles is really tough, but it's wildly transmissible, at least twice that of COVID-19. Anyone have any other relevant data?
  168. @vhrm
    @Citizen of a Silly Country


    But the question was always (and remains) how many people would have died (actually, had their death accelerated) if we had simply warned vulnerable groups to be careful and let the virus spread quickly among the healthy population vs how many people would have died (sorry, had their deaths accelerated) if we had massive shutdowns?
     
    AFAIK it's entirely unknown. One somewhat surprising (to me) thing is that the lockdowns don't appear to have had much effect on the spread of the virus at all. Like i have yet to see a graph where you can see a lockdown start and then 5-10 days later there's a significant downturn in new cases. So far i haven't seen one. I'd be curious to see a study that shows what impact various measures have had, but haven't seen one of those either.

    This article concurs on the shutdowns:
    https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/10/stats-hold-a-surprise-lockdowns-may-have-had-little-effect-on-covid-19-spread/

    Also worth noting that (based on the is Aug article about a paper by some economists) only 12% of the decrease in mobility to retail businesses in the US was caused by government action. The rest was consumer choice, but that 60% of the job losses were driven by government action (basically because restaurants were really hard hit by government shutdowns).

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-lockdowns-economy-pandemic-recession-business-shutdown-sweden-coronavirus-11598281419
    That article is a really good review how untested and seat of the pants these tactics have been.

    Judging by the effects so far, at least in the US, the effects on contagion have been minimal.

    That said, i think Steve's post is a good review because in some recent threads this week some of the skeptics really have forgotten that there are excess deaths.

    Replies: @utu, @Jack D

    The rest was consumer choice, but that 60% of the job losses were driven by government action (basically because restaurants were really hard hit by government shutdowns).

    Restaurants were already being hard hit before the shutdowns. Dem mayors were BEGGING people to come downtown and enjoy a nice Chinese meal but the restaurants were empty. Even after the lockdowns were eased, many restaurants stayed pretty empty for indoor dining. Part of that was that the offices were closed too, but part of it is that a restaurant is a really good place to catch Covid and (some) people have enough sense to stay out of them, with or without a lockdown.

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    @Jack D

    For most people, almost all people, there is no good reason to live like a hermit. There is nothing sensible about avoiding restaurants because of an exaggerated and ignorant perception about the virus’s lethality.

    It is much worse to support the government forcing less hysterical and better informed people to “live” in such a bizarre constricted constantly-surveilled manner. The government thugs and liars and their sheeple enablers need to get the Hell out of our lives or be made to do so.

  169. I’m still waiting for a cost-benefit analysis of this most controversial public policy. Eg, life lost, in terms of lowered quality of life from the lockdowns, multiplied by the number of people who would not be significantly impacted by Coronavirus vs how many lives the lockdown is saving multiplied by years of life extended.

    For example, let’s say – conservatively – that the average person views the impact of the lockdowns as the equivalent to one week of lost life (ie would you rather die one week earlier at the end of your life or endure a year and a half of lockdowns?). In this case, subtract really young children (they don’t notice) and you have roughly 280 million Americans losing one week of their life for a total of 5.4 million years of life lost.

    Compare that to how many lives you’re saving. Even with the most generous estimates. Let’s say we could even save 300,000 by locking down hard and waiting for a vaccine. But coronavirus only reduces the average victim’s life expectancy by 5 years. So in this scenario we’re saving 1.5 million years of life.

    In sum, even a simple analysis with numbers favorable to the lockdowns results in the lockdowns causing 5.4 million years of life lost while saving only 1.5 million years of life.

    This is just like global warming. Even if the “science” is sound the policy is irrational according to a cost-benefit analysis. (**As a global warming example, if every country spent many trillions complying with the Paris Agreement the current climate models show this would only lower the Earth’s temperature by a small fraction of a degree over the next 50 years or so. Not a good allocation of our limited resources – there are far more efficient ways to combat global warming such as investing in infrastructure or engineering the atmosphere etc).

    People on the right are inherently better at understanding cost-benefit analysis than people on the left. But the Coronavirus crisis shows that even many on the right and even here on Unz are prone to emotional and irrational thinking.

    What say you, iSteve? Let’s assume it’s all “settled science”. That still doesn’t make the lockdowns good public policy.

    • Agree: Desiderius
    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    @Anonymous Jew

    Right! This is a point we do not hear often enough. Even if the systematically exaggerated and dishonest “covid-19 death” statistics were close to accurate, lockdowns are not even close to justified.

    Historically, quarantines have not entailed treating people as prisoners en masse who have not tested positive for a virus and are not symptomatic. Even without all the lying as to cause of death, taking these measures is obviously disproportionate overkill.

    Funny how people who will remain economically comfortable — or rich — despite lengthy lockdowns seem to be the ones most often waxing indignant in defense of these bizarre and cruel measures.

    https://swprs.org/covid19-facts/

  170. @Jack D
    @Desiderius

    Giving weight to your own experiences on matters of national scope can be misleading because we all tend to live in a certain social/economic/regional bubble. Remember Pauline Kael, the New Yorker film critic who didn't understand how it was possible that Nixon had been elected President since no one she knew voted for him? I can tell you that the opioid crisis is not real because I don't know a single junkie personally.

    And in the case of Covid, the first wave especially was very spotty. New York, and in particular parts of Queens, was badly infected while certainly flyover states (many of the ones being hit hard now) were largely untouched.

    As far as the research community living under a reign of terror, in certain areas (e.g. if you were interested in investigating the genetic roots of the black IQ differential or whether gayness is a mental illness) you are correct but I have seen nothing that indicates that there has been any obstacles to legitimate scientific work on Covid (outside of China).

    Replies: @Desiderius

    You’ve seen nothing alright.

    Took until last week for a study to finally look at the actual HCQ treatment regimen docs have been using all along and sure enough works great.

    I remember Megan McArdle, usually the voice of reason and well measured respectability, dunking all over anyone who even thought about HCQ while requesting literature on abolishing police.

    All this shit is off. Flu disappearance, research on asymptomatic spread (Nature said last week not a thing) systematically ignored, false positives, NY temporary hospitals/hospital ship empty at height of deaths, ICU utilization below average even in areas supposedly slammed.

    As with the election it’s as if someone or something is trying to overload the noticers. In that spirit I’m glad Steve is providing the null hypothesis if for nothing else than comparison sake. Still prudent to Peter Lynch this thing too given the interesting times.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Desiderius


    Took until last week for a study to finally look at the actual HCQ treatment regimen docs have been using all along and sure enough works great.
     
    Where the h*** did this happen? Since it became The Trump Drug, and learned people sneered at our pointing out the whole treatment per the PRC medical community was never followed, I've been assuming no one in the West could give it get a fair shake without ending their career, and that's before you get to the issue of funding. Japan or another east Asian country?

    All this shit is off. Flu disappearance,
     
    I doubt the normal flu surveillance system is working well, it depends on people coming into a specific set of offices and clinics and getting point of contact tests. As in, I suspect a lot fewer lower grade cases are getting counted. Hospitalizations though will test for flu as well as COVID-19 for differential diagnosis as well as having both at once (a human, pig, or maybe bird having two flu infections at once is a or the major source of the antigenic shifts that cause pandemics).

    [...] NY temporary hospitals/hospital ship empty at height of deaths,
     
    We've discussed this before, in the latter part of 2019 Cuomo was blindsided by a 6 billion hole in his next fiscal year's budget, 2/3rds from Medicaid, a lot of which is all assets expended Silent Generation and a few boomers in long term care facilities. Jack D. I think said reasonably enough this cui bono approach wasn't enough, I still think anyone in the Cuomo crime family is psychopathic enough to do it without hesitation.

    ICU utilization below average even in areas supposedly slammed.
     
    Citation? Because that's not exactly my local experience. But note you'd expect exactly that to happen as we learn how to better diagnose and treat the disease, have learned respirators are an extremely dire last resort, and perhaps the demographics of the third wave are different, more moderate instead of dire cases?

    As of yet, after I apply the cold civil war filter, I don't see anything really odd, but for 150 miles in all directions my regions hospitals are generally at the new purple level added because the old highest red wasn't enough; YMMV.

    Replies: @Desiderius

  171. @Anonymous
    @Ron Unz

    I am in agreement with both Steve and Ron. I find myself with a different point of view to a lot of the commentariat.

    It seems that the individualism/atomism of the US combined with the hamfisted initial response has made it a situation where the US will bumble through until a vaccine is rolled out as there is no alternative. Australia, New Zealand and China have shown that yes, you can eliminate the virus and deal with outbreaks locally. A key is to contain and limit the travel so that the measures felt are localized.

    If there was another epidemic of greater severity and similar infectivity, the USA would be in a real pickle. If nothing else, this was a useful drill for such an event. The countries I mentioned and others have shown they have the toolkit to deal with even a virus as infectious as COVID, without waiting for a vaccine. In fact, most would be shutting the international borders far earlier than we have in future, completely avoiding the problem, or dealing with the small outbreaks. The key is to act early. Some short term pain is endured but then life goes on!

    It is notable that the Swedish model has failed and it's not for the Swedes lack of trying it. They have ended their experiment.

    Somehow, COVID has gotten politicized and it seems I am at odds with most republican types unfortunately. There is still much common ground, no need to get nasty or rude with our hosts. You might also realize that they are older gentlemen who have a non-trivial risk of death with COVID. I would prefer both stick around as long as possible.

    Replies: @utu, @Federalist, @RadicalCenter, @Polynikes

    No, unless they have some preexisting respiratory condition, suffer from poorly treated / controlled diabetes or hypertension, or are immunocompromised, they are not at high risk of dying from this virus at all. As they should know by now.

    My elderly and generally healthy but not svelte mother — Much older than sailer or our host — has continued to live life completely normally, as have most of her friends of like age. They are neither so hysterical nor so arrogant as to demand that everyone submit to a police state and live like isolated, state-surveilled, unduly frightened freaks in a vain attempt to make life almost risk-free or reduce the mortality risks of old or infirm people to the mortality profile of younger and healthier people.

    Moreover, anyone in the position of unz and sailer who is so afraid of covid exposure — rationally or irrationally — has always been free to wear a mask and faceshield. And these men because of their achievements and earnings, and the nature of steve’s work, can readily financially afford to stay home; tens of millions of Americans cannot afford that.

    People who have both the intelligence and ample free time to honestly ascertain the risk posed by this virus are selfish or ill informed if they fail or refuse to do so competently. They have a lot of damn nerve and are wrong to support destroying our liberty and dignity and privacy, destroying many millions of small businesses and livelihoods, impoverishing owners snd employees alike, causing a coming surge in evictions and foreclosures and thus homelessness and despair and crime, wrecking and deadening our neighborhoods and our very way of life.

    I wonder whether unz and sailer would thoroughly read and consider http://www.swprs.org and its medical sources. Rather than insult or attack me, or point out that I am not an MD or epidemiologist, one could specifically address the points made by the people running that site who ARE experienced MDs and medical scientists.

    • Replies: @Oizd
    @RadicalCenter

    Good for your mother. I’m a doc (allergist/immunologist, actually), and at this point, we all should be able to assess our risk. My 81 yo father (a widower with a bad heart) has decided that sitting at hone staring at four walls isn’t living. He’s out and about most days and is heading to Dubai to celebrate New Year. If he gets covid and doesn’t do well, he’ll have no regrets, I won’t have any for him either.

    I think the vaccine should be assessed in terms of risk/benefit as well. I’ve recommended that my dad get it when available, but I don’t want it until it’s been looked at long term for a few years, and there’s no way I’d recommend it to my healthy teenagers. Their risk of Covid is minimal, and the vaccine hasn’t been studied long term. As a pediatric resident in the late ‘90s, I got to see a lot of infants with intussuseption (where the bowel telescopes into itself). Turns out the rotavirus vaccine, which had done well in initial studies put kids at significant risk. Didn’t show up until the vaccine went into general use.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

  172. @prime noticer
    not this bullshit again. at this point we're just getting a glimpse into the boomer mind.

    18 million posts about a virus that he doesn't want to die from and won't let the rest of us live our lives either until he's safe. a thousand posts about baseball statistics. 1 or 2 posts about the biggest election fraud in US history and the clear transition of America into a third world country from Mr Statistics himself.

    BOOMERS LOST US THE COUNTRY. boomers have largely been in control for over 30 years now , and are the main reason we have now lost about a decade of economic activity to a minor virus with a 99.9% survival rate. shut down everything forever, they commanded. give up all hard fought American freedoms for a pissant virus that will come and go in a year or two. leftist politicians will NEVER give up the powers they have assumed during the 2020 virus scare, but at least boomers will eek out a few more years, and that's what matters.

    the greatest gen and silent gen are NOT the main reason we lost the country to leftists.

    Replies: @Trinity, @anonymous

    WRONG. I, and many Boomers WANT YOU TO LIVE YOUR LIFE AND ENJOY BEING YOUNG. AND YOU ARE DEAD WRONG ABOUT THE GREATEST GENERATION AND THE SILENT GENERATION, as much damage as SOME SELLOUT boomers have done to America, they contributed not 1/100th of the damage the so-called greatest generation did and when you add the additional damage done by the silent generation, you have to be kidding me. And WHAT ABOUT THE LOSERS THAT CAME AFTER THE BABY BOOMERS. The post Baby Boomer generations might very well end up putting the nail in the coffin of what was once America. I will match up the Baby Boomers worst against those who came before us or after us. Anyone who criticizes the baby boomers causes my Jewdar alarm to sound. IF you decide to be dumb enuff to go along with this corona horseshit, that is on you, not anyone else. Man up and live your life like you want and quit being a soy boy listening to others tell you how to live. smdh in utter disgust. I can’t go out because of “corona” wah, wah, wah, you can do whatever the hell you want.

    How many Baby Boomers do you see marching with Antifa by the way?

    • Replies: @MGB
    @Trinity


    And WHAT ABOUT THE LOSERS THAT CAME AFTER THE BABY BOOMERS. The post Baby Boomer generations might very well end up putting the nail in the coffin of what was once America. I will match up the Baby Boomers worst against those who came before us or after us. Anyone who criticizes the baby boomers causes my Jewdar alarm to sound.
     
    Ladies and gentlemen, a big round of applause for Joan Rivers.
  173. @epebble
    @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    The CDC estimates that about 100 million Americans were infected with COVID 19.

    If so, we should be on our way to herd immunity even without vaccine. But, I agree, tested positive may not mean a lot, especially if someone is asymptomatic. But, based on deaths, if 500,000 deaths are assumed to be the final count, multiple number of this will be long haulers. If, say, 5 million people become long haulers, that may impact labor force participation rate.

    https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    The CDC estimates that about 100 million Americans were infected with COVID 19.

    If so, we should be on our way to herd immunity even without vaccine.

    This 8x the number of confirmed infections is one of the very few things outside their all cause mortality accounting that I trust (especially since I’ve been using an easier to do in your head 10x guess :-). But in previous discussions … actually, I think it was on Gab, no one could think of an example of something like COVID-19 dying out on its own, whereas we have eradicated smallpox and rinderpest (which is probably where measles came from, anywhere in the 5th to 15th Century) a lot of vaccinations. Of course, way back when, many things might have naturally come and gone and stayed gone.

    Eradication is of course way beyond herd immunity, and note either requires there being no reservoir you can’t hit of the disease, why SARS died out (much less transmissible than COVID-19, and that was predominately super spreaders), while MERS is still with us because it comes from camels. Herd immunity for measles is really tough, but it’s wildly transmissible, at least twice that of COVID-19. Anyone have any other relevant data?

  174. @Steve Sailer
    @Anon

    Clearly, being terrified of getting a vaccine shot indicates heaping quantities of the Right Stuff.

    Replies: @the one they call Desanex, @Chrisnonymous, @SunBakedSuburb, @Federalist, @MB

    “terrified”

    Best not to be terrified about anything. But to be wary of a vaccine produced for a new virus that likely began in a lab at Fort Dietrich is a rational response. During my military service I was given several inoculations for god knows what in the same day. I was knocked flat with a fever and was confined to my bunk in the squad bay for 48 hours, missing out on critical training. Like Gavin Newsom, I believe in Science and vaccines. My personal experience with the technocrat’s nectar, however, has made me leery. I’m a 51 year old white man; last on the list to receive the COVID cure. So I won’t be rolling up my sleeve anytime soon.

  175. @Anonymous Jew
    I’m still waiting for a cost-benefit analysis of this most controversial public policy. Eg, life lost, in terms of lowered quality of life from the lockdowns, multiplied by the number of people who would not be significantly impacted by Coronavirus vs how many lives the lockdown is saving multiplied by years of life extended.

    For example, let’s say - conservatively - that the average person views the impact of the lockdowns as the equivalent to one week of lost life (ie would you rather die one week earlier at the end of your life or endure a year and a half of lockdowns?). In this case, subtract really young children (they don’t notice) and you have roughly 280 million Americans losing one week of their life for a total of 5.4 million years of life lost.

    Compare that to how many lives you’re saving. Even with the most generous estimates. Let’s say we could even save 300,000 by locking down hard and waiting for a vaccine. But coronavirus only reduces the average victim’s life expectancy by 5 years. So in this scenario we’re saving 1.5 million years of life.

    In sum, even a simple analysis with numbers favorable to the lockdowns results in the lockdowns causing 5.4 million years of life lost while saving only 1.5 million years of life.

    This is just like global warming. Even if the “science” is sound the policy is irrational according to a cost-benefit analysis. (**As a global warming example, if every country spent many trillions complying with the Paris Agreement the current climate models show this would only lower the Earth’s temperature by a small fraction of a degree over the next 50 years or so. Not a good allocation of our limited resources - there are far more efficient ways to combat global warming such as investing in infrastructure or engineering the atmosphere etc).

    People on the right are inherently better at understanding cost-benefit analysis than people on the left. But the Coronavirus crisis shows that even many on the right and even here on Unz are prone to emotional and irrational thinking.

    What say you, iSteve? Let’s assume it’s all “settled science”. That still doesn’t make the lockdowns good public policy.

    Replies: @RadicalCenter

    Right! This is a point we do not hear often enough. Even if the systematically exaggerated and dishonest “covid-19 death” statistics were close to accurate, lockdowns are not even close to justified.

    Historically, quarantines have not entailed treating people as prisoners en masse who have not tested positive for a virus and are not symptomatic. Even without all the lying as to cause of death, taking these measures is obviously disproportionate overkill.

    Funny how people who will remain economically comfortable — or rich — despite lengthy lockdowns seem to be the ones most often waxing indignant in defense of these bizarre and cruel measures.

    https://swprs.org/covid19-facts/

  176. @utu
    @Mark G.

    I am convinced that you are barking at the wrong tree. Bringing up immigrants to account for the factor of 10 difference between Sweden and its neighbors is crazy and it is in fact a red herring as I wrote in the previous comment. I will not be addressing your fantasies on the immigration as factor in mortality discrepancy among Scandinavia countries beyond this comment.

    I looked at the document you have linked (thanks) - Have you read it? If you did you would not present it here in support of your hypothesis.- the data are from 2011 and 2012 and they do not show significant differences among three Scandinavian countries. They have similar number of immigrants (8-15%) (Fig. 2). Denmark has more immigrants from Asia, Africa and S. America than Sweden (Fig.3). Norway and Denmark have more immigrant who lived there less than 3 years than Sweden (Fig. 4), Norway and Sweden have the same number of Somalis per capita (Table 1). Yes, Sweden has more immigrants form Iraq. Norway and Sweden have similar number of immigrants in higher education (Fig.7). Sweden has less employed immigrants (Fig. 9). This can't imply as you claim that Sweden employs more immigrant who cannot read or speak the language and that would be a reason for greater damage they have done in Sweden.

    Replies: @Mark G.

    This can’t imply as you claim that Sweden employs more immigrant who cannot read or speak the language and that would be a reason for greater damage they have done in Sweden.

    Former chief epidemiologist Johan Giesecke explains the failure to protect the elderly in nursing homes with reference to “asylum seekers” and “refugees” on the staff, who “may not always be understanding the information”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/may/01/sweden-coronavirus-strategy-nationalists-Britain

    “We had a huge spread in Stockholm at the beginning, which was much more similar to the spread you saw in London, Amsterdam, and Brussels, which in many ways are more similar to Sweden than our neighboring countries.

    “Stockholm and these other cities have large populations from other countries, which is important because the spread is greater and faster among these populations,” Tegnell said in an interview with the British magazine New Statesman.

    According to the Swedish statistical agency Statistics Sweden and Norwegian Statistics Norway, the proportion of the population with a foreign background according to the Swedish definition, i.e., born abroad or born domestically with two immigrant parents, is about a third in both Stockholm and Oslo.

    Tegnell also said that Sweden, in practice, had a lockdown on a par with neighboring countries – not because of government measures, but because the population changed their habits.

    https://norwaytoday.info/news/tegnell-larger-immigrant-population-led-to-faster-corona-spread-in-stockholm/

    • Replies: @HA
    @Mark G.

    "Former chief epidemiologist Johan Giesecke explains the failure to protect the elderly in [Swedish] nursing homes with reference to 'asylum seekers' and 'refugees' on the staff, who 'may not always be understanding the information'”.

    Which is exactly the kind of thing that happens when you decide to lean into a disease instead of trying to hold it off for at least long enough to figure out what isn't working. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

    But apart from stuff like that, the policy worked fine! Yeah, real convincing.

    , @utu
    @Mark G.

    Finland or Norway could have said exactly the same yjinhs about immigrants but they do not need to look for scapegoats as Sweden because they did well. Actually 10 times better than Sweden All what you keep repeating here are Swedish excuse. The same Gaurdian article you are citing has this: "The public debate is inflamed with a sense of wounded national pride." This all about national pride and self-image.

  177. @anonymous
    Steve, it's sad to see your readership is filled with dumb people. How hard would it be for some of the people commenting above to simply declare covid is very deadly but the lockdown isn't worth the cost? Instead they attack you for unvarnished insights and screech like leftists confronted with hate facts and numbers.

    Replies: @ken

    COVID can be deadly, but so are the lockdowns. A great sadness for me has been viewing people, healthy, rational people prior to COVID, who now operate in a constant climate of fear. If I had cancer and the doctor told me I had a 99% survival rate I’d be doing handstands, but the same stats for COVID and I need to hide in my house?

    • Replies: @Trinity
    @ken

    The stress will kill them before the virus.

  178. @Jack D
    @vhrm


    The rest was consumer choice, but that 60% of the job losses were driven by government action (basically because restaurants were really hard hit by government shutdowns).
     
    Restaurants were already being hard hit before the shutdowns. Dem mayors were BEGGING people to come downtown and enjoy a nice Chinese meal but the restaurants were empty. Even after the lockdowns were eased, many restaurants stayed pretty empty for indoor dining. Part of that was that the offices were closed too, but part of it is that a restaurant is a really good place to catch Covid and (some) people have enough sense to stay out of them, with or without a lockdown.

    Replies: @RadicalCenter

    For most people, almost all people, there is no good reason to live like a hermit. There is nothing sensible about avoiding restaurants because of an exaggerated and ignorant perception about the virus’s lethality.

    It is much worse to support the government forcing less hysterical and better informed people to “live” in such a bizarre constricted constantly-surveilled manner. The government thugs and liars and their sheeple enablers need to get the Hell out of our lives or be made to do so.

  179. @Desiderius
    I think that everyone agrees that millions have been terrified to go to the hospital for treatment and simultaneously the medical community has been terrorized into delaying said treatments, in some cases indefinitely.

    If you asked me what the effect of such a development would be a year ago I’d say a 10% or so rise in the death rate, skewed heavily toward the extremes of age and infirmity, and that is what that graph shows.

    Am I just supposed to pretend not to be aware that such a course of action is just what Zeke Emmanuel and many of my savvy doc/public policy friends have been advocating for years?

    Replies: @Jack D, @SunBakedSuburb

    “terrified to go to the hospital”

    I’ve been dragging the old man in and out of medical centers and specialist units throughout the plandemic. The protocols they follow encourage confidence. It’s still a pain in the arse, but the old man was the stepdad who actually paid the rent and filled the refrigerator. Keep your appointments!

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    @SunBakedSuburb

    Sounds like a certain stepdad I know.

    Unfortunately he’s a fake news fan so we’ll be missing Christmas this year too. Given my own immunosuppressive status I haven’t been taking too many chances myself (staying outside as much as possible with everyone else sane/healthy), and of course masking up indoors in public is simple courtesy, regardless of the dubiety of the whole rigamarole.

    Doesn’t mean anything about it is legit.

  180. @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @Steve Sailer

    The hospitals killed many patients by putting them on ventilators and sending sick patients to the nursing homes. Once we realized our mistakes the fatality rates started to decline.

    There was no need to keep New York beaches closed for the The Fourth of July. No reason to keep schools closed in September. Here in NJ the churches remained closed all summer , months after the curve was flattened.. little league was cancelled...some school districts in NJ have yet to open. Our local district was closed until November. There was no justification for this. Excess deaths in NJ were below zero after May, yet the lockdowns continued...

    Replies: @HA

    “Excess deaths in NJ were below zero after May, yet the lockdowns continued…”

    Ah yes, the old Fox Butterfield fallacy, as in “why are we still locking people up in prison even though crime rates have come down?”

    We get it. When death rates go up, it means lockdowns are ineffective. When they go down, it means lockdowns are no longer needed. I could almost go for it were it not for the fact that there’s all this research showing a new, highly contagious respiratory disease floating around. They’ve sequenced it, and modeled it, and despite empty promises that this thing would fizzle out in summer, or that we were “almost at herd immunity”, it stubbornly keeps hanging around — just the way the experts said it would — to the point where it’s getting really hard to take seriously the loons who want to pretend we should just ignore it or shrug it off.

    • Replies: @Travis
    @HA

    the purpose of the lockdowns , which began here in NJ began mid March, was to flatten the curve prevent the hospitals from being overwhelmed. They should have ended in May when the hospitals were well below capacity. Yet the lockdowns continued thru the summer, the majority of the schools did not open until October. Our school district did not open the schools until November. My wife is a teacher in Plainfield and they have remained closed and will stay closed until February. This is insanity. The lockdowns failed, yet they remain in-effect.

    The Lockdowns here little to no effect on the spread of COVID. Hospitalizations peaked 4 weeks after the lockdowns, 4 weeks after all the schools were closed and 3 weeks after masks were mandated by the governor. In reality most schools were shuttered a week before the Governor mandated all schools to be closed. Rutgers, Princeton and all the other big colleges were closed by March 9th. All the stores required masks by March 15th. Yet hospitalizations peaked April 17th and deaths peaked April 19th. There is no evidence that the lockdowns worked. The virus ran rampant thru the population quickly despite the lockdowns and mandated mask wearing imposed by our Governor.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Wielgus

    , @Travis
    @HA

    the purpose of the lockdowns , which began here in NJ began mid March, was to flatten the curve prevent the hospitals from being overwhelmed. They should have ended in May when the hospitals were well below capacity. Yet the lockdowns continued thru the summer, the majority of the schools did not open until October. Our school district did not open the schools until November. My wife is a teacher in Plainfield and they have remained closed and will stay closed until February. This is insanity. The lockdowns failed, yet they remain in-effect.

    The Lockdowns here little to no effect on the spread of COVID. Hospitalizations peaked 4 weeks after the lockdowns, 4 weeks after all the schools were closed and 3 weeks after masks were mandated by the governor. In reality most schools were shuttered a week before the Governor mandated all schools to be closed. Rutgers, Princeton and all the other big colleges were closed by March 9th. All the stores required masks by March 15th. Yet hospitalizations peaked April 17th and deaths peaked April 19th. There is no evidence that the lockdowns worked. The virus ran rampant thru the population quickly despite the lockdowns and mandated mask wearing imposed by our Governor.

    Replies: @vhrm

  181. @Desiderius
    @Jack D

    You’ve seen nothing alright.

    Took until last week for a study to finally look at the actual HCQ treatment regimen docs have been using all along and sure enough works great.

    I remember Megan McArdle, usually the voice of reason and well measured respectability, dunking all over anyone who even thought about HCQ while requesting literature on abolishing police.

    All this shit is off. Flu disappearance, research on asymptomatic spread (Nature said last week not a thing) systematically ignored, false positives, NY temporary hospitals/hospital ship empty at height of deaths, ICU utilization below average even in areas supposedly slammed.

    As with the election it’s as if someone or something is trying to overload the noticers. In that spirit I’m glad Steve is providing the null hypothesis if for nothing else than comparison sake. Still prudent to Peter Lynch this thing too given the interesting times.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    Took until last week for a study to finally look at the actual HCQ treatment regimen docs have been using all along and sure enough works great.

    Where the h*** did this happen? Since it became The Trump Drug, and learned people sneered at our pointing out the whole treatment per the PRC medical community was never followed, I’ve been assuming no one in the West could give it get a fair shake without ending their career, and that’s before you get to the issue of funding. Japan or another east Asian country?

    All this shit is off. Flu disappearance,

    I doubt the normal flu surveillance system is working well, it depends on people coming into a specific set of offices and clinics and getting point of contact tests. As in, I suspect a lot fewer lower grade cases are getting counted. Hospitalizations though will test for flu as well as COVID-19 for differential diagnosis as well as having both at once (a human, pig, or maybe bird having two flu infections at once is a or the major source of the antigenic shifts that cause pandemics).

    […] NY temporary hospitals/hospital ship empty at height of deaths,

    We’ve discussed this before, in the latter part of 2019 Cuomo was blindsided by a 6 billion hole in his next fiscal year’s budget, 2/3rds from Medicaid, a lot of which is all assets expended Silent Generation and a few boomers in long term care facilities. Jack D. I think said reasonably enough this cui bono approach wasn’t enough, I still think anyone in the Cuomo crime family is psychopathic enough to do it without hesitation.

    ICU utilization below average even in areas supposedly slammed.

    Citation? Because that’s not exactly my local experience. But note you’d expect exactly that to happen as we learn how to better diagnose and treat the disease, have learned respirators are an extremely dire last resort, and perhaps the demographics of the third wave are different, more moderate instead of dire cases?

    As of yet, after I apply the cold civil war filter, I don’t see anything really odd, but for 150 miles in all directions my regions hospitals are generally at the new purple level added because the old highest red wasn’t enough; YMMV.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    @That Would Be Telling

    Spent all summer sharing links and whatnot and just seemed like a black hole out there sucking in all meaningful info. HCQ article was Washington Times (Examiner?) I believe. ICU utilization was up to 86% in LA hospitals usually at 90-95%.

    I’m hearing from sources I trust that there really is a rush of cases this time but haven’t seen anything first hand here but the usual hysteria/security theater, and even that hasn’t been awful outside institutional settings, and even there it’s just abundance of caution gone wild.

  182. @Old Prude
    @Jack D

    Right-o, Jack: The “It’s just the flu” crowd is addled by fear. Did you really write that?

    Oooo-Kay, then...

    Replies: @MGB, @BenKenobi

    “It’s just the flu” crowd is addled by fear.

    That’s some retort that JackD and Stevo have come up with because their feelings have been hurt. Here’s the translation: “I know you are but what am I?”. Not to worry, they’ll have a vaccine to prevent hurt feelings soon enough.

    • LOL: Old Prude
  183. There are only three certainties in life:

    Death, taxes, and the media admitting they were really, really wrong about something.

  184. @Stan d Mute
    Rather than repeating the excellent comments above and in previous threads, I will come right out with it.

    WTF if wrong with you Steve? You are, for perhaps the first time in the 20 years I’ve been reading your screeds, in full agreement with your trolls and on the verge of being mocked by your most loyal fans.

    My suspicion is that you harbor some intense personal fear that you are unable to subsume in objectivity. I doubt it is your cancer history because I would rather have my cancer back, see remission vanish, and deal with metastasis than see the bullshit viral panic festival for milquetoast jacobins continue. Is it your parents? Spouse or kids? We can all forgive you cowering and trembling in terror, soaked in your own urine, shrieking “the virus is falling!” if the neurosis is rooted in something like that.

    Replies: @John Achterhof, @Sam Malone, @Servant of Gla'aki

    WTF if wrong with you Steve? You are, for perhaps the first time in the 20 years I’ve been reading your screeds, in full agreement with your trolls and on the verge of being mocked by your most loyal fans.

    It’s just a graph, bro. It’s just raw data. I must’ve missed the part where Steve endorsed continuing Universal House Arrest.

  185. @anonymous coward
    @HA


    The fact that locking down and distancing and masking managed to keep the death rates at what you claim is a “not scary at all” level is just, if anything, a high-five for those who mandated all those restrictions.
     
    Covid deaths are due to autoimmune reactions. Masks and lockdown do absolutely nothing to fight against autoimmune disorders.

    The masks and lockdowns didn't save a single person from Covid.

    Replies: @HA, @John Achterhof

    Covid deaths are due to autoimmune reactions. Masks and lockdown do absolutely nothing to fight against autoimmune disorders.

    Deaths of falls of great distance are not caused by the fall itself but rather the sudden stop.

  186. @That Would Be Telling
    @Kyle


    One of you geniuses should enlighten me, how many people who have had Covid 19 have been re infected, and on average how long does the immunity last, if any?
     
    When you factor in that our immune systems are wild and crazy, but mostly in a good way, effectively no one has been reinfected. Novel virus being novel, we only have evidence the immunity lasts as long as it's been out there in large numbers. Based on serological (blood) testing, it shows every sign of producing a life-long immunity, which may be the rule rather than an exception like the flu.

    The theory behind that is based on what our immune systems latch onto to provide long term immunity, is it "conserved," something that must stay more or less the same or "the virus won't virus," or is it like the flu, something that can change enough that previous immune system responses won't help (much) when it changes a lot? So the fact that fairly recent serological study of survivors of the 1918-9 flu pandemic still are ready to stop that particular strain doesn't help them (much) with significantly different H1N1 strains today, let alone the H3N2 from Asia in the late 1960.

    TL;DR: we have every reason to believe infections and vaccines that invoke the adaptive immune system will provide life long immunity, as I gather is true for every virus we vaccine against except for the flu.

    Extra credit: we have a couple of advantages with SARS-CoV-2 that means its less likely to mutate to something that's again novel, a unique among RNA viruses proofreading mechanism, and it's awfully well adapted to humans.

    Replies: @Anon

    What about choosing a vaccine for our elderly?

    If you had the choice between the live-attenuated at 70% effectiveness or the mRNA at 90% for an over 80 yr old, which would be better?

    And if you had the choice, how soon/late would you get the shot? Thank you in advance.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Anon


    What about choosing a vaccine for our elderly?

    If you had the choice between the live-attenuated at 70% effectiveness or the mRNA at 90% for an over 80 yr old, which would be better?
     
    I can't responsibly answer that question today, I have too much reading to do about the mRNA vaccines, which I won't start until they are approved, too busy to waste time on hypotheticals. And the virus hypothetical vaccine isn't even in the menu, as far as I know it takes a long time to create attenuated virus strains.

    Instead, we've got genetically engineered adenovirus vector vaccines, an existing technology platform, they have the spike protein splicing into them, and their ability to reproduce is gimped. AZ/Oxford is a clown show, Sputnik V is a political stunt so far, Janssen is taking a long term, high risk of only one dose, massive Phase III trial ambitious approach to try to vaccinate one billion people by the end of 2021. That is, not much, and no really good data on any of them yet.

    And if you had the choice, how soon/late would you get the shot? Thank you in advance.
     
    I don't think I'm the sort of person who can answer unrealistic hypotheticals like that, and haven't put any thought into it. But go by numbers, 1, 10, 50 million get it first? Somewhere in there after a few million for a couple of months, or perhaps enough so that the Phase III trials have six months of safety data, I'd be willing to take one. And I'm inclined towards the mRNA ones, they follow two important principles I use towards evaluating risk, simplicity, and being close to the natural (which you probably have to have done some serious molecular genetics to really believe).
  187. @Old Prude
    @Jack D

    Right-o, Jack: The “It’s just the flu” crowd is addled by fear. Did you really write that?

    Oooo-Kay, then...

    Replies: @MGB, @BenKenobi

    Now we have the “It’s Just A Totally Safe and Definitely Necessary Vaccine, Bro” crowd.

  188. @Steve Sailer
    @Larry, San Francisco

    The CDC has a set of graphs for that.

    Replies: @Alice in Wonderland

    CDC graphs by age and race.

    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm#F1_down

    they state that the baseline is the average of 2015-2019.

    Obviously the baseline should be the 2019 plus some small % increase. So, excess deaths are certainly overstated, but how much? maybe 5-10% ?

    Whites show smallest % increase. reason?

  189. @JR Ewing
    @Luke Lea

    Keep in mind as well that 2019 was a mild flu year and there were NO excess deaths following the peak at the beginning of 2018. So for 24 months we were below the baseline.

    This means that not only should we be looking for "pull ahead deaths", we should also recognize that 2020 has had some "borrowed time" deaths of people who hung on longer than they would have otherwise until the the 'rona got them. Yes CV19 has been bad, but influenza in 2018 was more benign than usual. Both of those factors contributed to the 2020 observations.

    And the lower number in 2019 is what caused the 2020 baseline to be lower. Rather than try to catch up, it appears the model inadvertently averaged down.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief, @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    And the lower number in 2019 is what caused the 2020 baseline to be lower. Rather than try to catch up, it appears the model inadvertently averaged down.

    Yep, that has to be considered. – This is one of – how many important factors? Five?

    Let me see:

    2) Treatments prevented by hospital lock-downs (a big one – for cancer alone, there is a serious estimation for Britain of 50 000 deaths).

    3) Sick patients moved from hospitals to care homes due to lack of beds (NY problem not least).

    4) Patients put on ventilators too early and too often (a deadly mistake in many cases).

    5) A lack of staff in care homes and hospitals due to false positives of the PCR tests.

    (to be continued…)

  190. @Travis
    @Steve Sailer

    The death rate climbed in March and April mostly due to the first wave of COVID, but a significant number of the excess deaths this year are due to the lockdowns and from the rapidly aging baby boomers turning 75 this year. We have millions more elderly people today than 5 years ago.

    Year - 65-and-older population
    2000 - 35 million
    2010 - 40 million
    2020 - 54 million

    The dramatic growth in the elderly population since 2010 will result in more deaths each year. Excess deaths cannot be calculated by comparing 2020 to 2018. They need to age-adjust the data. https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/65-older-population-grows.html

    Replies: @Louis Renault

    They need to age-adjust the data.

    Yes, but that would violate the narrative and not allow social changes driven by the left’s ideology.

  191. @prime noticer
    20 or 30 years ago i used to dislike the occasional, mild bashing of boomers that i heard once in a while. these days i don't think they go nearly far enough.

    yes, there were lots of great people in this generation that helped build and expand America too. but holy shit, on average they are BY FAR the most selfish and clueless generation EVER.

    who would argue that at this point? look at how they DESPERATELY cling to power even as they become senile. holding up all the jobs, property, and wealth, and blocking the younger generations from accumulating much. and they've mostly gone along with the leftists on every America destroying initiative and campaign.

    Replies: @hhsiii

    LOL, you could replace boomers with white people in that rant. Gib me dats boomers. Stop hogging all the wealth you accumulated.

    I’m not really a boomer, though. Tail end. Born ’64

  192. @dataBro
    @Anonymous

    Dunbar's number is 150. You know 150 people, that you can plausibly keep track of give or take. Covid has killed 1 out of 1000 people in the US. Most folks don't know anyone who died. Once we get to 1 in 300, 50% of people will have someone in their network who has died. It's worse than that though, most peoples 150 is not random, so how many actually over 70 folks are in your network. If you are young not too many.

    The numbers don't lie, my wife is a nurse, hospital is full, people are dying, I only know friends of friends who've died. But the CDC is not making this shit up. Maybe you have a someone in your network who works at a hospital? Ask them.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Hippopotamusdrome

    The hospitals are not full. That’s what they told us six months ago and that was a lie. Except for a few hotspots most of them were Desert Islands.

    I talked to a doctor just recently who said there was no problem getting in for any procedure.

  193. @Redman
    @Steve Sailer

    Actually, since most of the businesses here were shut down there wasn't much to take the subway to. Also no tourists. Unfortunately, I don't think much of this had to do with people making their own choices.

    OTOH, the Metronorth and LIRR (the 2 major suburban rail lines) have been dead since March. Deader than the subways in fact. And continue to be so. That reflects the white collar workforce's universal permission to work from home, which many if not most have chosen to be in their own best interest.

    Replies: @hhsiii, @prosa123

    I’ve been taking the subway on relatively short jaunts. Not to go to work but once a week or so. Midtown is indeed dead but parts of the City have stuff open, mostly bars, restaurants, some shops, Citarella’s, etc. Yeah, I’m gettin’ on that train like Christopher Walken playing Russian Roulette in Deerhunter all the time. 🙂

    Speaking of shops, I just went to Phoebe Cates’ place on Madison and 91st to pick up some xmas trinkets. Overpriced but worth it to get a glimpse of Miss Fast Times her own self. She’s charming. I do it every xmas.

    Her ancestral name is Katz, btw. 3/4s MOT, 1/4 asian. Didn’t turn out bad, eh? A PS 6 grad.

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    @hhsiii

    She certainly appears so in TV interviews.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWauw-RnYX8

  194. @anonymous coward
    @Dave


    So I won’t die of it, but lasting organ damage is a real possibility.
     
    That's bullshit. I had Covid, and I know dozens of people who had it. Nobody experienced anything out of the ordinary for a common respiratory viral infection.

    Yes, some people get severe autoimmune reactions to Covid, but those people are very rare, and if you're one of them you'll know immediately.

    Replies: @Jack D, @Dave

    If I get HCQ, Zithro, and zinc (the Trump cocktail) within a few days of infection, I’ll probably be fine. But the government might not let me have those drugs because they want people like me to suffer organ damage to justify their lockdowns. If I could legally buy those drugs ahead of time (they only cost a few dollars), I’d be much less worried about Covid.

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    @Dave

    Try a walk around noontime and black and green tea, and red wine. Wear a mask etc. Should do. For those who still haven't: Lose some weight. If you are under 80 without a lot of comorbidities, everything should turn out just like ever.

  195. @Redman
    @Steve Sailer

    Actually, since most of the businesses here were shut down there wasn't much to take the subway to. Also no tourists. Unfortunately, I don't think much of this had to do with people making their own choices.

    OTOH, the Metronorth and LIRR (the 2 major suburban rail lines) have been dead since March. Deader than the subways in fact. And continue to be so. That reflects the white collar workforce's universal permission to work from home, which many if not most have chosen to be in their own best interest.

    Replies: @hhsiii, @prosa123

    OTOH, the Metronorth and LIRR (the 2 major suburban rail lines) have been dead since March. Deader than the subways in fact. And continue to be so. That reflects the white collar workforce’s universal permission to work from home, which many if not most have chosen to be in their own best interest.

    I live not far from one of the busiest LIRR stations, which has an enormous main parking lot with around 6,000 spaces. In normal times the lot is completely filled by 8am on weekdays. Twice in the last few weeks I’ve driven through the lot around midday on weekdays, and my very rough estimate is that it was about 30% full both times. So a significant reduction to be sure, but not completely dead by any means.
    The station also has a couple of smaller lots on the other side of the tracks that have maybe 350 to 500 spaces, they were completely full on both my visits. There’s also a six-level parking garage, but I wasn’t able to see inside other than to note that there were some cars, the garage wasn’t empty in other words.
    Further note: there’s a sizeable commercial and industrial area south of the station, and judging by cars in parking lots it seems as busy as ever. I woudn’t imagine that many of the jobs in that area are suitable for WFH.

  196. Id love to see an overlay graph of ICU admittance and capacity for the same time period.

  197. @ken
    @anonymous

    COVID can be deadly, but so are the lockdowns. A great sadness for me has been viewing people, healthy, rational people prior to COVID, who now operate in a constant climate of fear. If I had cancer and the doctor told me I had a 99% survival rate I'd be doing handstands, but the same stats for COVID and I need to hide in my house?

    Replies: @Trinity

    The stress will kill them before the virus.

  198. @peterike
    If the Rona is so deadly to the older set, why hasn't a single geriatric Congress person died? Or even really been sick, that we know of?

    The one benefit of this thing would have been wiping out a huge percentage of the over 70 Senators and Representatives. That might even have made the bullshit lockdowns and other farcical nonsense worth the trouble. Yet none of them croaked, as far as I know. Just dumb luck, or something else?

    Replies: @Kaz

    Did you consider that they’re being extremely cautious?

  199. @Steve Sailer
    @Anon

    Clearly, being terrified of getting a vaccine shot indicates heaping quantities of the Right Stuff.

    Replies: @the one they call Desanex, @Chrisnonymous, @SunBakedSuburb, @Federalist, @MB

    Clearly, being terrified of getting a vaccine shot indicates heaping quantities of the Right Stuff.

    Says the guy who hides in a closet and wants everyone to wear a napkin on their face.

  200. @Catdog
    @HA

    You are justifying panick because more people *didn't* die.

    Replies: @HA

    “You are justifying panick because more people *didn’t* die.”

    I’m justifying — on the basis of gene sequencing, epidemiological models and contact tracing reports — the existence of a disease that, if allowed to go unchecked, will take out a million people or more in this country alone. At this point, you need to start saving up the “panick” name-calling for all the little snowflakes who are already melting down at the thought of getting a jab full of ground up bits of a virus that they claim isn’t anything to be concerned about even in its pristine “live” form. Now THAT is some genuine panick.

    [MORE]

    Sure, I suppose we could have asked — for the sake of that dear economy we all love so much — for all the old people to please step out onto the ice floe, along with diabetics, the obese, the hypertensive, asthmatics, and who knows who else, to see if a winning election campaign could be fashioned out of that. We could also have asked everyone else paying for their own Obamacare policy to pony up an extra 10-30K if they happened to land in an ICU unit (note this doesn’t apply to all the groups who expect Medicaid and Medicare to pay for that), but that might have gotten some resistance as well. And I’ve already noted that “let’s do it like Sweden” isn’t a realistic option for anyone who has even tried to think this through, given how much it depends on the government being willing to pay you for your sick-leave and being a high-trust society in general.

    So, if anything like that is the best you’ve got by way of an alternate approach, I can see why it hasn’t gotten more traction.

    • Thanks: That Would Be Telling
  201. What about the extra 15% payment that was instituted for a Covid death? Didn’t that also skew the results?

  202. The ‘expected deaths’ numbers are far too low. Including US population growth, they should average about 59,000 per week, meaning this year is running about 1 to 2% higher than “expected.” Why? Could be despair, drug overdoses, maladies untreated because hospitals were bracing for a surge of CoronaHoax patients that never materialized. The official CoronaHoax body count is polluted by financial, political, and narcissism incentives.

  203. @Mark G.
    @utu


    This can’t imply as you claim that Sweden employs more immigrant who cannot read or speak the language and that would be a reason for greater damage they have done in Sweden.
     
    Former chief epidemiologist Johan Giesecke explains the failure to protect the elderly in nursing homes with reference to “asylum seekers” and “refugees” on the staff, who “may not always be understanding the information”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/may/01/sweden-coronavirus-strategy-nationalists-Britain

    “We had a huge spread in Stockholm at the beginning, which was much more similar to the spread you saw in London, Amsterdam, and Brussels, which in many ways are more similar to Sweden than our neighboring countries.

    “Stockholm and these other cities have large populations from other countries, which is important because the spread is greater and faster among these populations,” Tegnell said in an interview with the British magazine New Statesman.

    According to the Swedish statistical agency Statistics Sweden and Norwegian Statistics Norway, the proportion of the population with a foreign background according to the Swedish definition, i.e., born abroad or born domestically with two immigrant parents, is about a third in both Stockholm and Oslo.

    Tegnell also said that Sweden, in practice, had a lockdown on a par with neighboring countries – not because of government measures, but because the population changed their habits.

    https://norwaytoday.info/news/tegnell-larger-immigrant-population-led-to-faster-corona-spread-in-stockholm/

    Replies: @HA, @utu

    “Former chief epidemiologist Johan Giesecke explains the failure to protect the elderly in [Swedish] nursing homes with reference to ‘asylum seekers’ and ‘refugees’ on the staff, who ‘may not always be understanding the information’”.

    Which is exactly the kind of thing that happens when you decide to lean into a disease instead of trying to hold it off for at least long enough to figure out what isn’t working. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

    But apart from stuff like that, the policy worked fine! Yeah, real convincing.

  204. @Buck Ransom
    @PiltdownMan

    My condolences to your college friend who lost his father tragically and unexpectedly at the age of 93. I wonder if he was one of those in a New York nursing home last spring. In any case, his family can take comfort knowing that the fine old fellow was still able to vote, possibly 2 or 3 times, for Joe Biden in November.

    Replies: @PiltdownMan, @AndrewR

    My condolences to your college friend who lost his father tragically and unexpectedly at the age of 93.

    Thanks. I’ll convey your sympathy.

  205. @Mike Tre
    @obwandiyag

    To make sure you don’t start eating the crayons again?

    Steve, look at who’s on your side in this issue: Newsom, Pritzker, Cuomo, Corvinus, and obwhineybag. That alone should give you pause.

    Replies: @HA

    “Steve, look at who’s on your side in this issue: Newsom, Pritzker, Cuomo, Corvinus, and obwhineybag.”

    You forgot Putin and Netanyahu — the latter is sending out cops on horseback into Orthodox neighborhoods to see that the restrictions are being kept. They’ve had two lockdowns so far.

    And if the people on “your” side are anti-vaxxers or else the just-a-flu bros who come here telling us the US needs to be more like Sweden (or Belarus, for that matter) — or else maybe someone like this — then you clearly didn’t think that argument through before you started typing.

    • Replies: @BenKenobi
    @HA

    You're not gonna shame us into compliance, you odious weasel.

    Replies: @HA

  206. @JR Ewing
    @Luke Lea

    Keep in mind as well that 2019 was a mild flu year and there were NO excess deaths following the peak at the beginning of 2018. So for 24 months we were below the baseline.

    This means that not only should we be looking for "pull ahead deaths", we should also recognize that 2020 has had some "borrowed time" deaths of people who hung on longer than they would have otherwise until the the 'rona got them. Yes CV19 has been bad, but influenza in 2018 was more benign than usual. Both of those factors contributed to the 2020 observations.

    And the lower number in 2019 is what caused the 2020 baseline to be lower. Rather than try to catch up, it appears the model inadvertently averaged down.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief, @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    Also the elderly population in America has been growing by 1.5 million per year.
    In 2020 there are 54 million over the age of 65
    In 2015 there were 47 million over 65
    In 2010 there were 40 million over 65

    • Replies: @Polynikes
    @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    Exactly. And you don’t even have to age adjust it, but if you go back ten out twenty years you see this year isn’t much of an outlier. If you age adjust it, you’ll see this year is unremarkable in the last few decades.

  207. @Old Prude
    @PiltdownMan

    I know many people who have gotten COVID. I don’t know one who had anything worse than the flu, much less died. Over the same time I know at least three people who died from non COVID.

    When will the hysteria stop so we can get on with living?

    Replies: @PiltdownMan

    One anecdotal deserves another, I figured. As you did, after I posted. We could keep going in circles, forever.

    When will the hysteria stop so we can get on with living?

    When we get a populace, governing class, intelligentsia, and mass media that aren’t addicted to it for psychological sustenance.

  208. @That Would Be Telling
    @Desiderius


    Took until last week for a study to finally look at the actual HCQ treatment regimen docs have been using all along and sure enough works great.
     
    Where the h*** did this happen? Since it became The Trump Drug, and learned people sneered at our pointing out the whole treatment per the PRC medical community was never followed, I've been assuming no one in the West could give it get a fair shake without ending their career, and that's before you get to the issue of funding. Japan or another east Asian country?

    All this shit is off. Flu disappearance,
     
    I doubt the normal flu surveillance system is working well, it depends on people coming into a specific set of offices and clinics and getting point of contact tests. As in, I suspect a lot fewer lower grade cases are getting counted. Hospitalizations though will test for flu as well as COVID-19 for differential diagnosis as well as having both at once (a human, pig, or maybe bird having two flu infections at once is a or the major source of the antigenic shifts that cause pandemics).

    [...] NY temporary hospitals/hospital ship empty at height of deaths,
     
    We've discussed this before, in the latter part of 2019 Cuomo was blindsided by a 6 billion hole in his next fiscal year's budget, 2/3rds from Medicaid, a lot of which is all assets expended Silent Generation and a few boomers in long term care facilities. Jack D. I think said reasonably enough this cui bono approach wasn't enough, I still think anyone in the Cuomo crime family is psychopathic enough to do it without hesitation.

    ICU utilization below average even in areas supposedly slammed.
     
    Citation? Because that's not exactly my local experience. But note you'd expect exactly that to happen as we learn how to better diagnose and treat the disease, have learned respirators are an extremely dire last resort, and perhaps the demographics of the third wave are different, more moderate instead of dire cases?

    As of yet, after I apply the cold civil war filter, I don't see anything really odd, but for 150 miles in all directions my regions hospitals are generally at the new purple level added because the old highest red wasn't enough; YMMV.

    Replies: @Desiderius

    Spent all summer sharing links and whatnot and just seemed like a black hole out there sucking in all meaningful info. HCQ article was Washington Times (Examiner?) I believe. ICU utilization was up to 86% in LA hospitals usually at 90-95%.

    I’m hearing from sources I trust that there really is a rush of cases this time but haven’t seen anything first hand here but the usual hysteria/security theater, and even that hasn’t been awful outside institutional settings, and even there it’s just abundance of caution gone wild.

  209. @HA
    @Mike Tre

    "Steve, look at who’s on your side in this issue: Newsom, Pritzker, Cuomo, Corvinus, and obwhineybag."

    You forgot Putin and Netanyahu -- the latter is sending out cops on horseback into Orthodox neighborhoods to see that the restrictions are being kept. They've had two lockdowns so far.

    And if the people on "your" side are anti-vaxxers or else the just-a-flu bros who come here telling us the US needs to be more like Sweden (or Belarus, for that matter) -- or else maybe someone like this -- then you clearly didn't think that argument through before you started typing.

    Replies: @BenKenobi

    You’re not gonna shame us into compliance, you odious weasel.

    • Thanks: Trinity
    • Replies: @HA
    @BenKenobi

    "You’re not gonna shame us into compliance, you odious weasel."

    Of course not. You're way beyond shame at this point. And hysterical, panicky little snowflakes gotta melt, after all, so I expect you to just keep on doing what you do best.

    But if shaming people into compliance is not your thing, then direct the above sentence to the guy wagging his little index finger at Steve because Corvinus and Cuomo are supposedly on his side. Because if Steve wants a leg to stand on the next time some leftist tries to deny test-score-gaps or sexual dimorphism because science is just a bunch of white men, or because math is sexist and racist and "Western" or whatever, then then teaming up with the anti-vaxxers is the last thing he needs to be doing.

    Replies: @My SIMPLE Pseudonymic Handle, @BenKenobi

  210. @utu
    Questions that should be asked by all those who object to countermeasures.

    (1) How many more deaths would we have if no countermeasures were taken? (2) Could smarter and less intrusive countermeasures produce similar or better results?

    (1) By looking at the very similar Nordic countries we keep the confounding variables to the minimum, so we can get a good idea how effective lockdowns can be by comparing Sweden with its Nordic neighbors.

    https://i.ibb.co/dMdwyfr/Graph1-4-NOrdic.png

    The factor of 10 lower fatality rate in Sweden's neighbors is due to lockdowns and more effective tracing and isolating ability. May we conclude that if the US opted for the Swedish approach, as many here advocate, we would have 2.5 million deaths by now? It is hard to say because we are not doing as well as Finland or Norway and on the other hand the US has higher effective density of population than Sweden and has higher occupancy per apartment in the citries than Sweden so it has lower natural social distance than Sweden. But there is no doubt that the death toll would be significantly higher if the Swedish model was adopted in the US.

    Effective tracing and isolating is the key to success but it can be effective only when the infection rate is low enough to be manageable. For this reason it often had to be preceded by a lockdown which is the fastest way to get the infection rate down to the manageable level. Japan avoided a lockdown because it already had in place an excellent system of tracing and isolating plus they used the universal masking to keep R0 close or below one. Sooner you start the lockdown the better off you are. Italian data show, what any reasonable person would expect, that number of deaths is directly proportional to the number of days from the first case to the start of lockdown. If on the East coast in NY and NJ lockdowns were two weeks earlier the first peak would be greatly attenuated and the lockdowns themselves would be shorter.

    (2) Many things could have been done differently starting in February and March. But there was no vision and no leadership. For instance it was possible still in February or even March to go for the complete elimination of the virus in the continental United States. It would require (1) Five week lockdown, (2) Strict border control with mandatory (no BS) quarantine, (2) Effective tracing and isolating and (4) Universal masking. By the end of May we would be getting back to normal providing that we would keep strict border control and mandatory (no BS) quarantine to prevent virus importation. New Zealand and Taiwan pretty much succeed in the virus elimination strategy. Taiwan's last death (out of 7) was on May 11.

    Instead we are in, what Karlin called, idiot's limbo. Still there is no leadership and no vision except there is now the hope that vaccination will get us out of the limbo.

    Would it be possible to isolate the most vulnerable population and let the majority conduct normal life? In theory yes. But nobody has tried it. Observed reduction of the IFR since the start of the epidemic in several countries suggests that the vulnerable are protected better now.

    Replies: @BenKenobi, @Mark G., @Bert, @peterike, @Anonymous Jew, @AnotherDad

    See my comment at #170

  211. @SunBakedSuburb
    @Desiderius

    "terrified to go to the hospital"

    I've been dragging the old man in and out of medical centers and specialist units throughout the plandemic. The protocols they follow encourage confidence. It's still a pain in the arse, but the old man was the stepdad who actually paid the rent and filled the refrigerator. Keep your appointments!

    Replies: @Desiderius

    Sounds like a certain stepdad I know.

    Unfortunately he’s a fake news fan so we’ll be missing Christmas this year too. Given my own immunosuppressive status I haven’t been taking too many chances myself (staying outside as much as possible with everyone else sane/healthy), and of course masking up indoors in public is simple courtesy, regardless of the dubiety of the whole rigamarole.

    Doesn’t mean anything about it is legit.

  212. @RadicalCenter
    @Anonymous

    No, unless they have some preexisting respiratory condition, suffer from poorly treated / controlled diabetes or hypertension, or are immunocompromised, they are not at high risk of dying from this virus at all. As they should know by now.

    My elderly and generally healthy but not svelte mother — Much older than sailer or our host — has continued to live life completely normally, as have most of her friends of like age. They are neither so hysterical nor so arrogant as to demand that everyone submit to a police state and live like isolated, state-surveilled, unduly frightened freaks in a vain attempt to make life almost risk-free or reduce the mortality risks of old or infirm people to the mortality profile of younger and healthier people.

    Moreover, anyone in the position of unz and sailer who is so afraid of covid exposure — rationally or irrationally — has always been free to wear a mask and faceshield. And these men because of their achievements and earnings, and the nature of steve’s work, can readily financially afford to stay home; tens of millions of Americans cannot afford that.

    People who have both the intelligence and ample free time to honestly ascertain the risk posed by this virus are selfish or ill informed if they fail or refuse to do so competently. They have a lot of damn nerve and are wrong to support destroying our liberty and dignity and privacy, destroying many millions of small businesses and livelihoods, impoverishing owners snd employees alike, causing a coming surge in evictions and foreclosures and thus homelessness and despair and crime, wrecking and deadening our neighborhoods and our very way of life.

    I wonder whether unz and sailer would thoroughly read and consider www.swprs.org and its medical sources. Rather than insult or attack me, or point out that I am not an MD or epidemiologist, one could specifically address the points made by the people running that site who ARE experienced MDs and medical scientists.

    Replies: @Oizd

    Good for your mother. I’m a doc (allergist/immunologist, actually), and at this point, we all should be able to assess our risk. My 81 yo father (a widower with a bad heart) has decided that sitting at hone staring at four walls isn’t living. He’s out and about most days and is heading to Dubai to celebrate New Year. If he gets covid and doesn’t do well, he’ll have no regrets, I won’t have any for him either.

    I think the vaccine should be assessed in terms of risk/benefit as well. I’ve recommended that my dad get it when available, but I don’t want it until it’s been looked at long term for a few years, and there’s no way I’d recommend it to my healthy teenagers. Their risk of Covid is minimal, and the vaccine hasn’t been studied long term. As a pediatric resident in the late ‘90s, I got to see a lot of infants with intussuseption (where the bowel telescopes into itself). Turns out the rotavirus vaccine, which had done well in initial studies put kids at significant risk. Didn’t show up until the vaccine went into general use.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Oizd

    Your 81 year old father is vacationing in Dubai, which has been giving out a Chinese vaccine for a few months?

    Sounds smart.

  213. @John Achterhof
    @Stan d Mute

    The impression I get, looking over this commentariat revolt to Sailer's presentation of factual information, is that while Steve is an independent thinker those drawn to his thought on taboo subjects are overwhelmingly anti-establishment, contrarian thinkers. If the powers-that-be had been determined at the outset of this pandemic to prioritize economic well-being over public health in lockdowns and mandates I suspect that those same commentators now braying against the course of action taken would be braying about the indifference to public health (death, long and shorter term sickness) in their prioritizing of tax-revenue-generating economic function.

    I was unsure at the outset about the call to shut down indefinitely so much economic and social activity - which has taken a great toll - in the unsure prospect of developing soon a vaccine, or at least effective treatment. But it turns out the drug companies have come through in flying colors, and while the US has floundered in its effort to quash the virus, the example of New Zealand shows just how effective social suppression/eradication efforts can be with competent, widely respected leadership and social solidarity. Indeed, an assortment of approaches have been deployed by different countries. What country can you point to as a model of sensibility according to your view of the seriousness of the virus? Sweden?

    Maybe, Stan, you and your reflexively contrarian fellows should just pass by informative posts such as this that upset your contratianism and just lap up the lower-nutrient stuff, such as some of the other posts offered today, that is more the common fare.

    Replies: @Anonymous Jew

    See my comment at #170

    When faced with the trolley problem – and Coronavirus policy is one giant trolley problem – people tend to have responses predicted by their ideology. Leftists/Progressives get hysterical and won’t accept the hypothetical. Conservatives mull it over and then reluctantly pull the switch. Libertarians (and I suspect many on the far right) see a child’s math problem.

    The commentariat here skews very male brain – low empathy and high systematizers. That’s where the bias is coming from. And it’s not just here. There’s a pretty clear ideological divide on the lockdowns. Here in Seattle I can predict pretty well where someone is on the left-right spectrum based solely on their mask etiquette. Have you ever tried to argue with a leftist that you can put a cost on human life? Have you ever tried to persuade a Libertarian that you can NOT put a cost on human life?

    Steve is just getting old, previously had cancer and doesn’t want to die. So he avoids the $64,000 question; this is about policy, not science. And sometimes – as with traffic accidents and so many other policy dilemmas – you’re better off killing some people for the greater good. Otherwise you end up with a 10-mph speed limit.

    *When corrected for years of life lost, our annual deaths from traffic accidents is equal to roughly 260,000 Coronavirus deaths.

    https://babylonbee.com/news/biden-to-defeat-skin-cancer-by-ordering-americans-to-wear-sunscreen-for-100-days

  214. @Ron Unz

    And December is likely to be pretty bad when finally counted up sometime in February.
     
    Yep. Many of the writers (and perhaps most of the commenters) on this website seem to have a very different view of the dangers of Covid-19 than Steve or myself. Given over-counting and under-counting problems, for months I've been emphasizing that "excess deaths" were the most reliable metric to evaluate the true impact of the epidemic.

    Since October I'd also predicted that such total fatalities might approach 500K by the end of the year. Offhand, it looks like we easily broke 350K by the end of November, and given the terrible numbers so far in December, my projection might not be too far off.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Dutch Boy, @BobX, @AnotherDad, @Hippopotamusdrome

    Striking thing here:

    The Diamond Princess gave us the first complete/closed data set, we’ve had and a really good box on the severity of this thing.
    — not “just the flu”
    — 10–50x normal flu
    — likely 0.2-0.7 IFR for American aged demographic profile
    — probably would kill 1-1.5 million Americans if every single person was exposed
    — but probably 600k-1m and you’d start wobbling toward “herd immunity”; everyone would else would eventually get exposed but over the next decade as with the flu antigen shifts
    — most critically, a geezer killer; quality of life years lost are small

    As i’ve noted, i was really worried about this back in January, AnotherMom and I kicked around tossing a foreign trip we had booked for the family. But once the Diamond Princess came back, i was relieved. My kids–future generations growing up–were gong to be fine. Unpleasant, but no threat to civilization, simply a lot of people–almost all old and/or ill health–were going to die a bit early. Some who would have gone in the last couple low-flu years, most borrowed from the next five years’ or so deaths.

    Nothing has changed that picture. Confess i didn’t expect the summer wave. I thought the first wave would die out with summer–end of flu season–then would get going big again in fall with traditional flu season. AnotherMom thinks summer AC–people more indoors–in the South had something to do with it. Mostly south–people less indoors–didn’t get hit as hard in first wave.

    But other than that, anyone could write a road map out of the Diamond Princess data and we’ve more or less driven right on down it.

    But … doesn’t matter. All sorts of nonsense from the “just the flu bros” whining about wearing a mask to the store (BFD), to the hysterics screaming about the apocalypse, pushing lockdowns (and wanting to kill Swedes for their heresy). We’re going to lose way more years of life in unconceived, unborn children than the Xi virus will take.

    One thing i have 100% confidence in: The Xi virus isn’t what’s killing America.

    America is being killed by minoritarianism. By mass immigration and by low/dysgenic fertility. Xi virus is a speed bump.

    • Thanks: dcthrowback
    • Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome
    @AnotherDad

    Re: Diamond Princess

    2,666 [LOL] passengers
    ...
    14 people, all of them passengers, died
    ...
    the median age of the passengers was 69
    ...
    passengers were 55% female

     

    14 ÷ 2,666 = 0.5% died (allegedly)

    Deaths of men: 10, average age 77.3
    Deaths of women: 3, average age 74.6
    Deaths of sex undetermined: 1, average age ??

    Period Life Table: 69yrs death probability: 1.75%
    Therefore, a population of 2,666 69 year olds naturally will have 7.8 die in any 2 month period under normal circumstances.

    The 14 that did die represents 6 excess deaths, or 0.2% in a population of 69 year olds.

    Not including of course possible deaths from the physical hardships of the quarantine (bet you didn't take a 2 month supply of pills on your 2 week cruise) and psychological stress from being told you are in a real life pandemic movie.

    PS
    Only 3/14 entries give a precise age. 8/14 entries give a 60s 70s or 80s. 3/14 entries give just a --. Their identities are State secrets or something.

  215. @pyrrhus
    Funny, Social Security recipient data doesn't show these increases in deaths, Market Ticker has analyzed this, yet the vast majority of people dying from Covid are over 70...I smell a rat...
    And we personally know 20+ people who have had actual Covid cases, and none of them were even hospitalized, while most had very light symptoms...

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @huwhyte ppl, @Achmed E. Newman, @Hippopotamusdrome

    Thanks, great blog this Karl Denninger guy has.

    For those interested, basically, he retrieves the data from the SSA on payments to older folks and identifies that it does NOT deviate significantly from the previous years, except the spike in April deaths which Karl attributes mostly to Cuomo’s decision to put sick people into nursing homes, which probably accelerated the death pace and people died who would’ve otherwise have died a bit later. Which kind of makes sense as NJ + NY corona deaths during that period dwarf the whole country.

    He also did some blogging about DNRs and quotes a research from a NJ hospital which basically states that most folks who died at that time (~90%) had signed a document that prescribes not to put much effort into reanimating them when they are dead, which is a sign that these people expected that they are going to die from OTHER cause than the coronavirus.

    Highly recommend.

  216. @Anon
    @That Would Be Telling

    What about choosing a vaccine for our elderly?

    If you had the choice between the live-attenuated at 70% effectiveness or the mRNA at 90% for an over 80 yr old, which would be better?

    And if you had the choice, how soon/late would you get the shot? Thank you in advance.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    What about choosing a vaccine for our elderly?

    If you had the choice between the live-attenuated at 70% effectiveness or the mRNA at 90% for an over 80 yr old, which would be better?

    I can’t responsibly answer that question today, I have too much reading to do about the mRNA vaccines, which I won’t start until they are approved, too busy to waste time on hypotheticals. And the virus hypothetical vaccine isn’t even in the menu, as far as I know it takes a long time to create attenuated virus strains.

    Instead, we’ve got genetically engineered adenovirus vector vaccines, an existing technology platform, they have the spike protein splicing into them, and their ability to reproduce is gimped. AZ/Oxford is a clown show, Sputnik V is a political stunt so far, Janssen is taking a long term, high risk of only one dose, massive Phase III trial ambitious approach to try to vaccinate one billion people by the end of 2021. That is, not much, and no really good data on any of them yet.

    And if you had the choice, how soon/late would you get the shot? Thank you in advance.

    I don’t think I’m the sort of person who can answer unrealistic hypotheticals like that, and haven’t put any thought into it. But go by numbers, 1, 10, 50 million get it first? Somewhere in there after a few million for a couple of months, or perhaps enough so that the Phase III trials have six months of safety data, I’d be willing to take one. And I’m inclined towards the mRNA ones, they follow two important principles I use towards evaluating risk, simplicity, and being close to the natural (which you probably have to have done some serious molecular genetics to really believe).

  217. @BenKenobi
    @HA

    You're not gonna shame us into compliance, you odious weasel.

    Replies: @HA

    “You’re not gonna shame us into compliance, you odious weasel.”

    Of course not. You’re way beyond shame at this point. And hysterical, panicky little snowflakes gotta melt, after all, so I expect you to just keep on doing what you do best.

    But if shaming people into compliance is not your thing, then direct the above sentence to the guy wagging his little index finger at Steve because Corvinus and Cuomo are supposedly on his side. Because if Steve wants a leg to stand on the next time some leftist tries to deny test-score-gaps or sexual dimorphism because science is just a bunch of white men, or because math is sexist and racist and “Western” or whatever, then then teaming up with the anti-vaxxers is the last thing he needs to be doing.

    • Disagree: BenKenobi
    • Replies: @My SIMPLE Pseudonymic Handle
    @HA

    Now that you bring it up:


    science is just a bunch of white men, or because math is sexist and racist and “Western”

     

    Why aren't the same culprits saying the same thing about the Corona Virus scam. Aren't all the usual perpetrators of the Covid scam mostly white men?
    , @BenKenobi
    @HA

    Appropriation and misuse of traditionally dissident-right insults, false-equivalency, poisoning the well and straw-manning.

    https://thumbs.gfycat.com/HappyPrestigiousGoldfinch-small.gif

    Replies: @HA

  218. @prime noticer
    not this bullshit again. at this point we're just getting a glimpse into the boomer mind.

    18 million posts about a virus that he doesn't want to die from and won't let the rest of us live our lives either until he's safe. a thousand posts about baseball statistics. 1 or 2 posts about the biggest election fraud in US history and the clear transition of America into a third world country from Mr Statistics himself.

    BOOMERS LOST US THE COUNTRY. boomers have largely been in control for over 30 years now , and are the main reason we have now lost about a decade of economic activity to a minor virus with a 99.9% survival rate. shut down everything forever, they commanded. give up all hard fought American freedoms for a pissant virus that will come and go in a year or two. leftist politicians will NEVER give up the powers they have assumed during the 2020 virus scare, but at least boomers will eek out a few more years, and that's what matters.

    the greatest gen and silent gen are NOT the main reason we lost the country to leftists.

    Replies: @Trinity, @anonymous

    boomers have largely been in control

    This country should be run by people in their teens and twenties. It would be handled much better. Don’t trust anyone over thirty.

    • LOL: Trinity
    • Replies: @My SIMPLE Pseudonymic Handle
    @anonymous

    You need to watch the movie from the 60's called "Wild in the Streets" to see how all that works out.

  219. If any here have read the excellent series of articles on this very website addressing the origins of the virus, they would not be denying its existence or parroting mindless statements like “It’s just a cold, bro”. No, it’s probably a bio-weapon which is working pretty much as intended. A large percentile of the populace has been gaslighted by Mockingbird media into thinking it’s the black death – which the nascent totalitarians in various states have used as an opportunity to seize much power (while they make outrageous exemptions to the lockdown rules for themselves and their pals). Another portion of the populace, noticing this behavior on the part of both ‘leaders’ and ‘experts’, concludes it’s a big scam and acts like it doesn’t exist – which ends up spreading the weaponized virus so the usual suspects can take even greater power into their criminal hands.

    The fact the the usual suspects are not letting an opportunity to commit evil acts – even murder – go to waste does not mean the virus is fake. The fact that it’s not works greatly to the advantage in this regard for the bad actors in this sordid show.

  220. @utu
    Questions that should be asked by all those who object to countermeasures.

    (1) How many more deaths would we have if no countermeasures were taken? (2) Could smarter and less intrusive countermeasures produce similar or better results?

    (1) By looking at the very similar Nordic countries we keep the confounding variables to the minimum, so we can get a good idea how effective lockdowns can be by comparing Sweden with its Nordic neighbors.

    https://i.ibb.co/dMdwyfr/Graph1-4-NOrdic.png

    The factor of 10 lower fatality rate in Sweden's neighbors is due to lockdowns and more effective tracing and isolating ability. May we conclude that if the US opted for the Swedish approach, as many here advocate, we would have 2.5 million deaths by now? It is hard to say because we are not doing as well as Finland or Norway and on the other hand the US has higher effective density of population than Sweden and has higher occupancy per apartment in the citries than Sweden so it has lower natural social distance than Sweden. But there is no doubt that the death toll would be significantly higher if the Swedish model was adopted in the US.

    Effective tracing and isolating is the key to success but it can be effective only when the infection rate is low enough to be manageable. For this reason it often had to be preceded by a lockdown which is the fastest way to get the infection rate down to the manageable level. Japan avoided a lockdown because it already had in place an excellent system of tracing and isolating plus they used the universal masking to keep R0 close or below one. Sooner you start the lockdown the better off you are. Italian data show, what any reasonable person would expect, that number of deaths is directly proportional to the number of days from the first case to the start of lockdown. If on the East coast in NY and NJ lockdowns were two weeks earlier the first peak would be greatly attenuated and the lockdowns themselves would be shorter.

    (2) Many things could have been done differently starting in February and March. But there was no vision and no leadership. For instance it was possible still in February or even March to go for the complete elimination of the virus in the continental United States. It would require (1) Five week lockdown, (2) Strict border control with mandatory (no BS) quarantine, (2) Effective tracing and isolating and (4) Universal masking. By the end of May we would be getting back to normal providing that we would keep strict border control and mandatory (no BS) quarantine to prevent virus importation. New Zealand and Taiwan pretty much succeed in the virus elimination strategy. Taiwan's last death (out of 7) was on May 11.

    Instead we are in, what Karlin called, idiot's limbo. Still there is no leadership and no vision except there is now the hope that vaccination will get us out of the limbo.

    Would it be possible to isolate the most vulnerable population and let the majority conduct normal life? In theory yes. But nobody has tried it. Observed reduction of the IFR since the start of the epidemic in several countries suggests that the vulnerable are protected better now.

    Replies: @BenKenobi, @Mark G., @Bert, @peterike, @Anonymous Jew, @AnotherDad

    The factor of 10 lower fatality rate in Sweden’s neighbors is due to lockdowns and more effective tracing and isolating ability. May we conclude that <i>if the US opted for the Swedish approach, as many here advocate, we would have 2.5 million deaths by now?

    Politely as possible: utter innumeracy.

    2.5 million Xi deaths is a 90% bump in mortality.

    Is Sweden at even 100K deaths for the year? They have to get to 100K deaths to be even reach a 10% death bump! They may make it–maybe. That’s your Swedish apocalypse.

    The US also looks to be headed about a 10% bump. In fact, if you believe that the reported Corona deaths are really all excess deaths, we should be there now. We may well be doing a bit worse than Sweden. It’s more or less the same.

    We wouldn’t have 2.5 million covid-19 deaths if the US had done absolutely nothing at all. We wouldn’t have 2.5 million deaths if we’d had everyone in the US exposed. Now to be fair, we have 50m 65+ seniors, and 12m or so 80+ers, so i’m sure you could find a way to kill 2.5m of ’em with a Xi-laced nasal spray to give them an enormous viral load upfront. But that’s not what the exposure people get normally. The normal course–full run–of this epidemic wouldn’t even match a years normal deaths.

    ~~~

    US has higher effective density of population than Sweden …

    You nattering about Sweden’s population density–especially with regard to its neighbors (like the graph above)–is ridiculous.

    People are not scattered randomly throughout Sweden. Basically everyone lives in the south–Stockholm (or Uppsala) on down. It’s essentially like Ohio–10 millionish people, three large metros–with a big empty Wyoming attached. The Ohio part is what matters–the large urban areas where essentially all the Swedes live. The Wyoming part up north is completely irrelevant to the virus. It’s like blathering that the land area in Alaska has anything to do with the virus situation in the US. (Next you’ll start blathering about how poorly the Canadians are doing given all that land!)

    (I’ve now explain this reality to you clearly, so you should stop with your “low density” nonsense.)

    In reality Sweden is a very highly urbanized country. And–just the way their welfare system works–they have a higher percentage of their elderly in group care homes compared to their neighbors. In other words, in terms of the density that actually matters Sweden is considerably more dense than their neighbors.

    And–they admit it–they did a poor job keeping the virus out of their care homes. This wasn’t intentional “discrimination!” slaughter like we saw from Cuomo, but it was poor management. They were vulnerable and weren’t/didn’t rally fast enough to protect their elderly in care.

    ~~

    You don’t like the Swedes not following your desired “lockdown!” protocol. Fine.

    But deal with the reality. The US is in pretty much exactly the same place as Sweden–a 10% death bump. Whatever good the lockdown nonsense did–very little i suspect–it was completely swallowed up by the US having a fatter, somewhat less healthy population.

    • Replies: @utu
    @AnotherDad

    ....population density... - If you read the graph's abscissa label and the annotation you would not waste time on writing four unnecessary paragraphs on population density in your comment. Arithmetic population density was not used but what I call the effective pop. density that excludes large empty areas by counting only populated 1 km squares was used. The reference for the method and the effective pop. density data is in the graph annotation. Sweden effective pop. density is 84/sq.km while the arithm. pop. density is 25/sq.km. Spain has the largest unpopulated areas in Europe, so its effective pop. density is 8 times higher than the arithmetic. pop. density. This is one of the factors why Spain was hit so hard with covid.

    ...“low density” nonsense... - This is not a nonsense. Population density may account for up to 50% of variance in covid death stats between countries. Obviously there are outliers for other reasons like lockdown or no lockdown as the graph from my comment demonstrates.

    The question whether the no-lockdown/lockdown factor of 10 derived from the case of Nordic countries to scale in the as if no-lockdown/lockdown scenarios can be used for other countries is legitimate. Note that the 2.5 million figure appears within the statement that is a question that is followed with a qualifying noncommittal answer. Under what condition the US can have 2.5 mil deaths? With 50% infection prevalence which is below the herd immunity threshold for covid and with IFR=1% it gets close. Or as you suggest we may look at the 50 mil of 65 yo and older where IFR varies from 1% to 10%. Personally I believe that w/o any countermeasure by now we would have about 750,000 deaths.

  221. What about suicides? I have heard that the suicide rate has tripled from June onwards. Perhaps COVID isn’t killing extra people, but our response to COVID is killing extra people.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @HorriblyDepressed

    Were the long-term effects of the shutdown what killed all those people in April?

    Replies: @HorriblyDepressed

  222. @Billy Shears
    @Hypnotoad666

    I would guess bad flu season picked off a lot of the vulnerable. Notice the next years winter peak is below average.

    Replies: @Polynikes

    You are correct

  223. @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @JR Ewing

    Also the elderly population in America has been growing by 1.5 million per year.
    In 2020 there are 54 million over the age of 65
    In 2015 there were 47 million over 65
    In 2010 there were 40 million over 65

    Replies: @Polynikes

    Exactly. And you don’t even have to age adjust it, but if you go back ten out twenty years you see this year isn’t much of an outlier. If you age adjust it, you’ll see this year is unremarkable in the last few decades.

  224. @Anonymous
    @Ron Unz

    I am in agreement with both Steve and Ron. I find myself with a different point of view to a lot of the commentariat.

    It seems that the individualism/atomism of the US combined with the hamfisted initial response has made it a situation where the US will bumble through until a vaccine is rolled out as there is no alternative. Australia, New Zealand and China have shown that yes, you can eliminate the virus and deal with outbreaks locally. A key is to contain and limit the travel so that the measures felt are localized.

    If there was another epidemic of greater severity and similar infectivity, the USA would be in a real pickle. If nothing else, this was a useful drill for such an event. The countries I mentioned and others have shown they have the toolkit to deal with even a virus as infectious as COVID, without waiting for a vaccine. In fact, most would be shutting the international borders far earlier than we have in future, completely avoiding the problem, or dealing with the small outbreaks. The key is to act early. Some short term pain is endured but then life goes on!

    It is notable that the Swedish model has failed and it's not for the Swedes lack of trying it. They have ended their experiment.

    Somehow, COVID has gotten politicized and it seems I am at odds with most republican types unfortunately. There is still much common ground, no need to get nasty or rude with our hosts. You might also realize that they are older gentlemen who have a non-trivial risk of death with COVID. I would prefer both stick around as long as possible.

    Replies: @utu, @Federalist, @RadicalCenter, @Polynikes

    Sweden has no excess death. Their model is superior to whatever you’re crying about.

  225. @HorriblyDepressed
    What about suicides? I have heard that the suicide rate has tripled from June onwards. Perhaps COVID isn't killing extra people, but our response to COVID is killing extra people.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    Were the long-term effects of the shutdown what killed all those people in April?

    • Replies: @HorriblyDepressed
    @Steve Sailer

    @SteveSailer

    That is a good point. Let me try to reason through this more clearly.

    Let's just consider the graph up through October 3. That eliminates the 8-week lag in reporting and leaves us with two "humps" to consider.

    First, some of these excess deaths are due to COVID. What I really want to know is how many excess deaths are due to COVID and how does that compare to something like a bad flu season.

    We know that suicides and drug overdoses increased this year. I assume that the excess "deaths of despair" would become greater as the year progressed. Deaths of despair might not account for much of the first hump, but would account for more of the second hump and might account for a majority of excess deaths as summer turns to fall and then winter.

    There are also some causes of death that we would expect to decrease due to the lockdown, such as vehicular accidents and workplace accidents.

    Plus, there is one more broad factor to consider. The average person dying of COVID is 80 years old or older and has an average of 2 to 3 co-morbidities. What are the most common causes of death for people in that category? I assume that heart failure and stroke would be two major causes of death for these people. What other causes are commonly listed on the death certificate? Cancer? (I don't know.) I would expect that the deaths due to heart failure, stroke, etc. for octogenarians with two or three co-morbidities has decreased this year.

    So, what would this graph look like if we took All Excess Deaths, subtracted Excess "Deaths of Despair", added Deficit Deaths due to Accident and subtracted Deficit Deaths due to Heart Failure, Stroke, etc.? That formula might look like:

    [All Excess Death] - [Excess Death of Despair] + [Deficit Accidental Death] - [Deficit Old Age Deaths] = [Excess Death due to COVID]

    All of these numbers should be available, somewhere. Then we can take that number and compare it to some past epidemics in the United States. I assume that would be flu epidemics for the most part. I can't think of any other major epidemics in the last 30 or 40 years.

    That would give us a good starting point for a discussion of the COVID Crisis and how we have responded to it. I am not much of a statistician, but what do you think, Mr. Sailer? Does that sound like a reasonable approach? Would you be interested in crunching those numbers? If not, where would one search for the data to make these computations?

    :-)

  226. @Oizd
    @RadicalCenter

    Good for your mother. I’m a doc (allergist/immunologist, actually), and at this point, we all should be able to assess our risk. My 81 yo father (a widower with a bad heart) has decided that sitting at hone staring at four walls isn’t living. He’s out and about most days and is heading to Dubai to celebrate New Year. If he gets covid and doesn’t do well, he’ll have no regrets, I won’t have any for him either.

    I think the vaccine should be assessed in terms of risk/benefit as well. I’ve recommended that my dad get it when available, but I don’t want it until it’s been looked at long term for a few years, and there’s no way I’d recommend it to my healthy teenagers. Their risk of Covid is minimal, and the vaccine hasn’t been studied long term. As a pediatric resident in the late ‘90s, I got to see a lot of infants with intussuseption (where the bowel telescopes into itself). Turns out the rotavirus vaccine, which had done well in initial studies put kids at significant risk. Didn’t show up until the vaccine went into general use.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    Your 81 year old father is vacationing in Dubai, which has been giving out a Chinese vaccine for a few months?

    Sounds smart.

  227. @Anonymous
    I live in a city with millions. All this would be more believable if I knew of a single person who died from it. LOL

    Yeah a few grandpas in their late 70s got sick but got over it.

    But I’m sure there’s an uptick, what you’d expect with kind of a bad bug going around. It happens. No reason to destroy the country. And overall, I’m sorry, but this was no biggie.

    Replies: @PiltdownMan, @dataBro, @Lurker, @My SIMPLE Pseudonymic Handle, @Occasional lurker

    Of all those excess deaths due to Covid how many can be attributed to Cuomo forcing old geyzers out of hospitals and back into nursing homes? I don’t remember but weren’t other Governors also quilty of this practice? Whitmer and Wolf? I think it might be better to label those deaths as murdered by Governor instead of dying of Covid.

    Also, weren’t quite a few folks murdered earlier in the year when people were placed on ventilators destroying their lung function? So, maybe we should subtract those deaths from the official statistics since they died by ventilator, or shall we just say physician malpractice?

    Wouldn’t it also be appropriate to separate out the people that may have tested positive for Covid at some point in the year but then later died asymptomatic? I mean if you didn’t have any symptoms did your really die of Covid? You know, like you died in an automobile accident on the way home from the Covid testing center but your results came back positive?

    Now, shouldn’t we also subtract out all the people that died as a result of BLM/Antifa peaceful protests? Is that guy that had the statue dropped on him still alive? Didn’t you like the way the white chick that was instrumental in helping bring down the statue slinked out of the area instead of sticking around to make sure the poor shlub was still ok?

    I mean Rittenhouse is responsible for two. Did they count those as Covid deaths also?

    And, how can we count anyone that died that had more than one co-morbidity as a Covid death? Can we really ascertain with certainty that they actually died of Covid and not their co-morbidity?

    Luckily with hospitals shut down and doctors not seeing patients we should be able to subtract the approximate 250k they kill a year. But, as others point out in the comments the toll taken on the mental and physical health of people out of work should really be subtracted off the totals as well. (But, that shouldn’t stop us from including them in the indictments of Crimes Against Humanity for the top perpetrators of this technocratic nightmare like Bill Gates, Fauci, Cuomo, Wolf, Whitmer, Newsome, etc.)

    I’m sure if we apply the appropriate filters we can get the count of possible actual Corona Virus deaths down to less than 20K this year. But, that would go against the narrative of this being the most deadly pandemic well since the 1918 Spanish Flu.

    Now, if anyone wants to see a film showcasing the coming Technocratic Fascist State they should watch the movie “The Day the Earth Stood Still”. I watched it last night on TCM and the parallels with whats going on today were pretty much evident in a film from the 50’s.

    The ramping of fear over some unknown external event, military takeover of police functions, politicians being subordinated, all the while the brilliant minds of the time would provide the answers. You know them as technocrats. You’ll be surprised how it parallels with what’s going on today sans the face diapers. And, it did cover depopulation if the people of Earth didn’t fall into line with the all knowing all powerful Cosmic Technocrats.

  228. @anonymous
    @prime noticer


    boomers have largely been in control
     
    This country should be run by people in their teens and twenties. It would be handled much better. Don't trust anyone over thirty.

    Replies: @My SIMPLE Pseudonymic Handle

    You need to watch the movie from the 60’s called “Wild in the Streets” to see how all that works out.

  229. @HA
    @BenKenobi

    "You’re not gonna shame us into compliance, you odious weasel."

    Of course not. You're way beyond shame at this point. And hysterical, panicky little snowflakes gotta melt, after all, so I expect you to just keep on doing what you do best.

    But if shaming people into compliance is not your thing, then direct the above sentence to the guy wagging his little index finger at Steve because Corvinus and Cuomo are supposedly on his side. Because if Steve wants a leg to stand on the next time some leftist tries to deny test-score-gaps or sexual dimorphism because science is just a bunch of white men, or because math is sexist and racist and "Western" or whatever, then then teaming up with the anti-vaxxers is the last thing he needs to be doing.

    Replies: @My SIMPLE Pseudonymic Handle, @BenKenobi

    Now that you bring it up:

    science is just a bunch of white men, or because math is sexist and racist and “Western”

    Why aren’t the same culprits saying the same thing about the Corona Virus scam. Aren’t all the usual perpetrators of the Covid scam mostly white men?

  230. @utu
    @vhrm

    Here is a graph based on data from Italy. Each day of delay to lockdown increases death toll by 8/100k.

    https://i.ibb.co/rZFpQC8/Silverio-Nov2020.png

    I have looked at some papers that come to conclusion that lockdowns do not work and all of them have some fatal flaw. The well know one published in Lancet by Canadian anesthesiologists (why anesthesiologists?) takes data from 50 countries that are very different and never should have been put together if you can't remove influence of confounding variables that are much stronger than the lockdown effects.

    This paper should have never been accepted for publication


    https://thefatemperor.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/1.-LANCET-LOCKDOWN-NO-MORTALITY-BENEFIT-A-country-level-analysis-measuring-the-impact-of-government-actions.pdf
    A country level analysis measuring the impact of government actions, country preparedness and socioeconomic factors on COVID-19 mortality and related health outcomes
    Rabail Chaudhrya, George Dranitsarisb, Talha Mubashirc, Justyna Bartoszkoa, Sheila Riazia
     
    but obviously it gets mileage among the covid skeptics and anti-lockdown advocates. Debunking each paper like that on its internal data and methodology is like trying to debunk each papers on free energy and perpetual motion w/o invoking the law of energy conservation and the second law of thermodynamics.

    It is OK to question lockdowns for their costs but any claims that a lockdown in a finite time period does not reduce mortality should be rejected out of hand just like the perpetual motion and free energy papers are rejected out of hand.

    Replies: @Cloudbuster, @Polynikes

    but any claims that a lockdown in a finite time period does not reduce mortality should be rejected out of hand

    Starting with a conclusion and working your data backwards. Science!

    You’re now qualified to work at the cdc.

  231. If I remember correctly both Ron Unz and Steve Sailer were totally hysterical on March-April and were predicting enormous numbers of deaths. (Can somebody find links? Why is nobody writing an article on this travesty? Ron Unz is so honest that he would probably publish it. Steve certainly would not because he seems much more emotional than Unz.)

    They were embarrassingly wrong and now instead of retreating they are doubling down. After being totally falsified one would think that Sailer at least would try to present better graphs. So a few questions (sorry my bad English skills):

    1. Why not per million?
    – inexplicable. I cannot think of an explanation. The graph seems disingenuous.

    2.Why only 3 years?
    – inexplicable and highly misleading
    – 20-30 year mortality graphs from Sweden and England show previous very high peaks  

    3.Why is the baseline getting lower??
    – population during those 3 years has increased about 3 percent. Furthermore, more and more boomers are now in their 70s and dying off in accelerated rate.
    – note that my background is in history and methodology. I am not mathematically inclined so if I noticed this immediately why not Steve?? Or am I missing something??
    – plus 2019 was a quite mild flu year

    4. Why no break-down of age?
    – if virtually all the dead are over 60 why the lockdown?

    5. Why no break-down of the cause of death?
    – dying from covid vs. with purported covid
    – is thera a substantial or even greater increase of deaths from other causes?

    6. Why no break-down of race
    – Vitamin D deficiencies are obviously greatest among dark skinned
    – would this lead to the study of nutritional deficiencies which seem a taboo subject in America
    – why is nobody and certainly not Steve proposing we give everybody free Vitamin D supplements 50-150 mcg per day? Can we at least agree that would decrease deaths and make America much healthier? Btw, how much does Steve take Vitamin D?

    7. Why no break-down of the locations of death
    – I assume virtually all possible April excess deaths occurred in a few areas like in New York while most states noticed nothing. This is like saying that because in notoriously polluted and totally incompetent hospital ridden North Italy there were excess deaths then Europe had a pandemic.
    The graph Sailer provided does not prove that there has been excess yearly mortality  There may have been excess mortality in April but that also does not prove anything about covid. There could be various explanations including: 

    1. Vitamin D-deficiencies are greatest in April and among obese and the dark skinned (especially in New York)

    2. Pollution created toxic air currents for example from oil refineries that refine fracked oil which has much more toxic ingredients. This coupled with traffic pollution, etc. can create toxic cocktails which can be spread under special circumstances by air currents into cities (especially New York)

    3. Effectively shutting down hospitals and normal health care must have killed many people already in April and even more afterwards. (Especially in New York under Cuomo)

    4. Tuberculosis, etc bacteria spread by the immigrants and subways and diagnosed as Covid deaths. (Especially in New York) Note that 1 and 2 and 3 would help spread tuberculosis. The situation became even worse when people were asked to stay home already in February and early March. This is dangerous especially for immigrants and their elders who live in crowded apartments

    5. 1,2,3,4 must have a deadly impact in nursing homes especially since the elderly cannot absorb Vitamin D very effectively and they a prevented by murderous AMA doctors from both sunshine and vitamin supplements. Add toxic air currents and you have a death trap.

    6. Nursing homes doubled as hospitals which is insane especially if you have tuberculosis and other bacteria flying around infecting old people who are very weak anyway and pumped up with toxic drugs and vaccinations instead of vitamins and other natural nutrients. (Especially New York and also North Italy) (In fact 1-6 both New York and North Italy are very simmilar.)

    7. Doctors misdiagnosing and killing patients with ventilators or toxic drugs in silmilar manner that they killed AIDS patients.

    I know that Steve hates Duesberg’s theory that AIDS does not exist but Kary Mullis found it convincing. So I do think that we might again have a wrong diagnosis and thus especially in April doctors were killing patients again on a mass scale.

    The reason why I am calling Steve hysteerical is that he refuses to take seriously alternative explanations just like he treats Duesberg’s theory with childish contempt.

    It also seems to me that only recently he has grudgingly started to accept the importance of Vitamin D but refuses to tell how much he himself takes. I suspect he takes very little because he worships Big Pharma even in this topic.

    However, I am open to other explanations after Sailer and other hysterics have provided better charts. After all, if you want to destroy the economy, save U$Srael and create a police state then you have the burden on proof.

  232. @HA
    @BenKenobi

    "You’re not gonna shame us into compliance, you odious weasel."

    Of course not. You're way beyond shame at this point. And hysterical, panicky little snowflakes gotta melt, after all, so I expect you to just keep on doing what you do best.

    But if shaming people into compliance is not your thing, then direct the above sentence to the guy wagging his little index finger at Steve because Corvinus and Cuomo are supposedly on his side. Because if Steve wants a leg to stand on the next time some leftist tries to deny test-score-gaps or sexual dimorphism because science is just a bunch of white men, or because math is sexist and racist and "Western" or whatever, then then teaming up with the anti-vaxxers is the last thing he needs to be doing.

    Replies: @My SIMPLE Pseudonymic Handle, @BenKenobi

    Appropriation and misuse of traditionally dissident-right insults, false-equivalency, poisoning the well and straw-manning.

    • Replies: @HA
    @BenKenobi

    "Appropriation and misuse of traditionally dissident-right insults..."

    Clearly you have attention-deficit issues so I will remind you that the "shaming" line of inquiry was introduced into this thread by those on your side of the fence. But when I serve it back, you say I'm guilty of "appropriation"?

    Wow, this convergence of black folks and alt-right anti-vaxxers is getting tighter by the day. First it was lining up on the impertinence of those who dared to request that they don masks, then it was agreeing that they don't need no white man's vaccines no-how, and now they're finishing each others sentences on the matter of the microagression known as cultural appropriation. TinyDuck would be so pleased -- in another day or two they'll be throwing down rap duets or something.

  233. @Trinity
    @prime noticer

    WRONG. I, and many Boomers WANT YOU TO LIVE YOUR LIFE AND ENJOY BEING YOUNG. AND YOU ARE DEAD WRONG ABOUT THE GREATEST GENERATION AND THE SILENT GENERATION, as much damage as SOME SELLOUT boomers have done to America, they contributed not 1/100th of the damage the so-called greatest generation did and when you add the additional damage done by the silent generation, you have to be kidding me. And WHAT ABOUT THE LOSERS THAT CAME AFTER THE BABY BOOMERS. The post Baby Boomer generations might very well end up putting the nail in the coffin of what was once America. I will match up the Baby Boomers worst against those who came before us or after us. Anyone who criticizes the baby boomers causes my Jewdar alarm to sound. IF you decide to be dumb enuff to go along with this corona horseshit, that is on you, not anyone else. Man up and live your life like you want and quit being a soy boy listening to others tell you how to live. smdh in utter disgust. I can't go out because of "corona" wah, wah, wah, you can do whatever the hell you want.

    How many Baby Boomers do you see marching with Antifa by the way?

    Replies: @MGB

    And WHAT ABOUT THE LOSERS THAT CAME AFTER THE BABY BOOMERS. The post Baby Boomer generations might very well end up putting the nail in the coffin of what was once America. I will match up the Baby Boomers worst against those who came before us or after us. Anyone who criticizes the baby boomers causes my Jewdar alarm to sound.

    Ladies and gentlemen, a big round of applause for Joan Rivers.

    • Thanks: Trinity
  234. Not quite OT:

    India buys 1.6b vaccine doses, said to be most in the world

    https://www.straitstimes.com/world/india-buys-16b-vaccine-doses-said-to-be-most-in-the-world

    But a billion of those doses are for Novavax, which is still being tested (though the early results look promising.)

    After Facing Delays, Does The Novavax Covid Vaccine Still Matter?


    While the Novavax vaccine might arrive later than expected, it still holds promise. Firstly, based on data from early trials there are indicators that it might be highly effective. For example, the antibody responses for the Novavax vaccine were meaningfully stronger than other vaccines that have been reported at that time, per data from its Australian trials that were available in August.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2020/12/03/after-facing-delays-does-the-novavax-covid-vaccine-still-matter/?sh=3fd26a0268b7

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @PiltdownMan

    On Indian and US advance I assume contingent on approvals purchases, India has half a billion out of their 1.6 billion, and the US as I recall off the top of my head 610 million out of 1,010 billion cited in the table from AZ/Oxford, which is still a testing clown show. So it'll be quite some time before we know if that version pans out as they essentially restart their Phase III trials with a new, accidentally found dosing regime, probably dealing with a problem anticipated by the developers of Sputnik V, 100 million for India, which in its "unaligned" days was very close to. On the other hand, who knows about Russia's production capacity, and they're still doing their Phase III trial.

  235. @Chrisnonymous
    @Steve Sailer

    Have there been any attempts to correlate population/sub-population IQ or education levels with containment? My sense in Japan is that people are vacillating between risk taking and risk avoidance week to week and must be making their decisions by constantly updating based on news reports and reading the room.

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist

    My sense in Japan is that people are vacillating between risk taking and risk avoidance week to week and must be making their decisions by constantly updating based on news reports and reading the room.

    Thanks for this, Chris. I think it’s much the same here in HK, although I’m worried that HK is developing a hard core of risk-avoidance fanatics, both in government and scattered through the general population, who are going to make it very, very hard to get back to anything like normal life here.

    We are being ratcheted into a growing set of restrictions that is getting gradually closer to full lockdown. At this point, we’re working from home; restaurants can only seat groups of two people, and must close at 6:00 pm; and all churches, gyms, and public facilities of all sorts are closed. Shops and public transport are still open.

    HK is now on its (purported) fourth wave, which must lead the world. Translated, this means we are averaging about 100 ‘cases’ a day in a population of almost 8 million.

    The genesis of this latest outbreak would be hilarious if it weren’t causing so much disruption and suffering: COVID cases started breaking out in profusion amongst a certain set of late-middle-aged to elderly rich ‘ladies who lunch’, and who like to frequent ‘dance halls’ where they rumba and waltz with hunky 20- and 30-something toyboys — all un-masked, of course. Supposedly the beat carried on into some horizontal tango-ing in local hotels also. There have been over 600 cases linked to this cluster already.

    Anyway, our universally-loathed Chief Executive, the estimable Carrie Lam, has officially announced that HK’s goal should be zero cases, in perpetuity, forever. And this is going to be achieved strictly by cracking down on the population and its movements, because although the HK government has made a sort of off-hand, lukewarm ‘commitment’ to taking care of vaccinating the population, they have suggested they might think about getting around to it in late 2021, maybe, or probably more likely 2022. So we’ve got a solid year of busybodying to look forward to.

    It’s getting really hard on kids here. As is well-known, the vast majority of HK people live in high-rise towers, and flats are generally tiny. Lots of kids here are essentially being imprisoned, as schools have been off more than on for the past year. They’re totally online again at the moment. The apotheosis of this rage for risk-avoidance (for a demographic segment that isn’t even at risk) came last month, when the HK education department shut down all kindergartens (the equivalent of preschool + kindergarten in the USA), not because of COVID infections, but because there were kids coming home with — just wait for it — the common cold.

    Anyway, if anyone’s still reading, thanks for letting me vent. 2020’s been a long haul.

  236. @AnotherDad
    @utu


    The factor of 10 lower fatality rate in Sweden’s neighbors is due to lockdowns and more effective tracing and isolating ability. May we conclude that <i>if the US opted for the Swedish approach, as many here advocate, we would have 2.5 million deaths by now?
     
    Politely as possible: utter innumeracy.

    2.5 million Xi deaths is a 90% bump in mortality.

    Is Sweden at even 100K deaths for the year? They have to get to 100K deaths to be even reach a 10% death bump! They may make it--maybe. That's your Swedish apocalypse.

    The US also looks to be headed about a 10% bump. In fact, if you believe that the reported Corona deaths are really all excess deaths, we should be there now. We may well be doing a bit worse than Sweden. It's more or less the same.

    We wouldn't have 2.5 million covid-19 deaths if the US had done absolutely nothing at all. We wouldn't have 2.5 million deaths if we'd had everyone in the US exposed. Now to be fair, we have 50m 65+ seniors, and 12m or so 80+ers, so i'm sure you could find a way to kill 2.5m of 'em with a Xi-laced nasal spray to give them an enormous viral load upfront. But that's not what the exposure people get normally. The normal course--full run--of this epidemic wouldn't even match a years normal deaths.

    ~~~


    US has higher effective density of population than Sweden ...
     
    You nattering about Sweden's population density--especially with regard to its neighbors (like the graph above)--is ridiculous.

    People are not scattered randomly throughout Sweden. Basically everyone lives in the south--Stockholm (or Uppsala) on down. It's essentially like Ohio--10 millionish people, three large metros--with a big empty Wyoming attached. The Ohio part is what matters--the large urban areas where essentially all the Swedes live. The Wyoming part up north is completely irrelevant to the virus. It's like blathering that the land area in Alaska has anything to do with the virus situation in the US. (Next you'll start blathering about how poorly the Canadians are doing given all that land!)

    (I've now explain this reality to you clearly, so you should stop with your "low density" nonsense.)

    In reality Sweden is a very highly urbanized country. And--just the way their welfare system works--they have a higher percentage of their elderly in group care homes compared to their neighbors. In other words, in terms of the density that actually matters Sweden is considerably more dense than their neighbors.

    And--they admit it--they did a poor job keeping the virus out of their care homes. This wasn't intentional "discrimination!" slaughter like we saw from Cuomo, but it was poor management. They were vulnerable and weren't/didn't rally fast enough to protect their elderly in care.

    ~~

    You don't like the Swedes not following your desired "lockdown!" protocol. Fine.

    But deal with the reality. The US is in pretty much exactly the same place as Sweden--a 10% death bump. Whatever good the lockdown nonsense did--very little i suspect--it was completely swallowed up by the US having a fatter, somewhat less healthy population.

    Replies: @utu

    ….population density… – If you read the graph’s abscissa label and the annotation you would not waste time on writing four unnecessary paragraphs on population density in your comment. Arithmetic population density was not used but what I call the effective pop. density that excludes large empty areas by counting only populated 1 km squares was used. The reference for the method and the effective pop. density data is in the graph annotation. Sweden effective pop. density is 84/sq.km while the arithm. pop. density is 25/sq.km. Spain has the largest unpopulated areas in Europe, so its effective pop. density is 8 times higher than the arithmetic. pop. density. This is one of the factors why Spain was hit so hard with covid.

    …“low density” nonsense… – This is not a nonsense. Population density may account for up to 50% of variance in covid death stats between countries. Obviously there are outliers for other reasons like lockdown or no lockdown as the graph from my comment demonstrates.

    The question whether the no-lockdown/lockdown factor of 10 derived from the case of Nordic countries to scale in the as if no-lockdown/lockdown scenarios can be used for other countries is legitimate. Note that the 2.5 million figure appears within the statement that is a question that is followed with a qualifying noncommittal answer. Under what condition the US can have 2.5 mil deaths? With 50% infection prevalence which is below the herd immunity threshold for covid and with IFR=1% it gets close. Or as you suggest we may look at the 50 mil of 65 yo and older where IFR varies from 1% to 10%. Personally I believe that w/o any countermeasure by now we would have about 750,000 deaths.

  237. @Citizen of a Silly Country
    Steve,

    This is beneath you, and, frankly, saddening. Only the tin-hat crowd ever claimed the Covid-19 wasn't real.

    Yes, Steve, Covid-19 is real. You got us.

    Okay, back to adult world, which, inexplicably, you seem to have abandoned on this subject. The question with Covid was never "Is it real?" but was "How bad is it, and what is the cost/benefit of various measures to slow its spread?"

    Covid appears to be on track to accelerating (not generally causing) the deaths of an additional ~320k Americans (funny how that term no longer means much to me), i.e. 0.1% of the population. That's no joke, but it's not the Black Death either.

    But the question was always (and remains) how many people would have died (actually, had their death accelerated) if we had simply warned vulnerable groups to be careful and let the virus spread quickly among the healthy population vs how many people would have died (sorry, had their deaths accelerated) if we had massive shutdowns?

    In addition, we would consider the negative externalities of a shutdown, such as businesses being destroyed, increased suicides, increased substance abuse, kids not learning because they're not in school, increased domestic abuse, etc.

    Then, we would weigh to the expected number of additional accelerated deaths (admittedly, a guess) vs all of those negative consequences (again, a guess). Because, you know, that's what serious adults do. We make hard choices based on the facts available.

    Instead, we had Harpies (and some internet pundits) throwing logic and facts out the window and demanding the world shut down for an admittedly very, very nasty flu-like virus because, well, because they didn't like it.

    Steve, wake up! Instead of showing a graph pretty much all of us have seen, why don't you analyze the numbers. This post is marginally - and just marginally - above the Today Show ladies clutching their pearls about the rising case count. Jesus, it's embarrassing.

    You're one of the best columnists of the past 30 years, a person who's writings hopefully will be read by (White) generations to come. Don't let it end this way.

    Replies: @Kaz, @vhrm, @Old Prude, @Anon, @OutsideMan, @Anon87

    Assuming your 320k holds it’s 0.001% of the population (320,000/330,000,000). 80% of deaths were 64 or older. Not the plague confirmed.

  238. @Larry, San Francisco
    Be interesting to break up excess deaths by age bands.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Anon

    Here are the current numbers as of December 9t when the CDC updated their database.

    All ages: 255,257
    Over 65: 203,981 79%
    Under 44: 7,041 2%
    Under 34: 2,238 0%
    Under 24: 403 0%

  239. @Mark G.
    @utu


    This can’t imply as you claim that Sweden employs more immigrant who cannot read or speak the language and that would be a reason for greater damage they have done in Sweden.
     
    Former chief epidemiologist Johan Giesecke explains the failure to protect the elderly in nursing homes with reference to “asylum seekers” and “refugees” on the staff, who “may not always be understanding the information”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/may/01/sweden-coronavirus-strategy-nationalists-Britain

    “We had a huge spread in Stockholm at the beginning, which was much more similar to the spread you saw in London, Amsterdam, and Brussels, which in many ways are more similar to Sweden than our neighboring countries.

    “Stockholm and these other cities have large populations from other countries, which is important because the spread is greater and faster among these populations,” Tegnell said in an interview with the British magazine New Statesman.

    According to the Swedish statistical agency Statistics Sweden and Norwegian Statistics Norway, the proportion of the population with a foreign background according to the Swedish definition, i.e., born abroad or born domestically with two immigrant parents, is about a third in both Stockholm and Oslo.

    Tegnell also said that Sweden, in practice, had a lockdown on a par with neighboring countries – not because of government measures, but because the population changed their habits.

    https://norwaytoday.info/news/tegnell-larger-immigrant-population-led-to-faster-corona-spread-in-stockholm/

    Replies: @HA, @utu

    Finland or Norway could have said exactly the same yjinhs about immigrants but they do not need to look for scapegoats as Sweden because they did well. Actually 10 times better than Sweden All what you keep repeating here are Swedish excuse. The same Gaurdian article you are citing has this: “The public debate is inflamed with a sense of wounded national pride.” This all about national pride and self-image.

  240. @RichardTaylor
    @HA

    There are important voices that agree with you. This woman gets it:

    https://twitter.com/shanermurph/status/1335756575605202944

    Replies: @Old Prude, @HA, @Achmed E. Newman

    It’ll be OK. Those germs can’t cross double yellow lane markers. I learned that from Dr. Fauci.

    • LOL: RichardTaylor
  241. @Cloudbuster
    @utu

    It's easy to come up with two sets of numbers that generate a high correlation value. That's not the same as the correlation meaning anything. As you yourself as much as said, each of those data points is a different place, under a different circumstance. The different contributing variables on the ground are so numerous as to be uncountable. It's nothing like a controlled experiment. The simple math trick of identifying a high correlation between two things you *want* to be related is unconvincing. It's "How to Lie with Statistics 101."

    Replies: @utu

    You are incoherent.

  242. @pyrrhus
    Funny, Social Security recipient data doesn't show these increases in deaths, Market Ticker has analyzed this, yet the vast majority of people dying from Covid are over 70...I smell a rat...
    And we personally know 20+ people who have had actual Covid cases, and none of them were even hospitalized, while most had very light symptoms...

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @huwhyte ppl, @Achmed E. Newman, @Hippopotamusdrome

    At the university near us, there were over 1200 cases of the Kung Flu. The number of hospitalizations was … wait for it …

    ZERO. That’s a big goose egg, 0.

    Now someone tell me why they are not attending most classes but using zoom instead, yet still paying their $12,000 in tuition yearly that will have to be paid back by probably my tax money once they get load forgiveness.

    Peak Stupidity is nigh.

    • Agree: Marco de Wit
  243. @Mike Tre
    "The blue bars represent how many people died each week in the US from any and all causes: whether COVID, cancer, a broken heart, or BASE-jumping."

    Hey Steve, don't forget excess suicides, drug overdoses, and who knows how many other disparity related deaths that were the direct result of basically placing the entire country under house arrest.

    Not to mention that some of our dumber governors sent sick people off to quarantine in nursing homes, (occupied by the one and only demographic truly at risk of dying from the vYhrus) which is what caused the originally jump in corona-related deaths to begin with.

    Once of the best isteve commenters that used to be here, HAIL, who I've not seen in some time, would regularly explain things like this that you would ignore. I guess you ran him off or he gave up on your dogmatic perspective on the worst pandemic to ever exist.

    Replies: @utu, @Achmed E. Newman

    Mike and others: Mr. E.H. Hail got tired of the hysteria. He is up to part 19 of his very thorough numerical analyses of this PanicFest on his Hail to You blog.

  244. @BenKenobi
    @HA

    Appropriation and misuse of traditionally dissident-right insults, false-equivalency, poisoning the well and straw-manning.

    https://thumbs.gfycat.com/HappyPrestigiousGoldfinch-small.gif

    Replies: @HA

    “Appropriation and misuse of traditionally dissident-right insults…”

    Clearly you have attention-deficit issues so I will remind you that the “shaming” line of inquiry was introduced into this thread by those on your side of the fence. But when I serve it back, you say I’m guilty of “appropriation”?

    Wow, this convergence of black folks and alt-right anti-vaxxers is getting tighter by the day. First it was lining up on the impertinence of those who dared to request that they don masks, then it was agreeing that they don’t need no white man’s vaccines no-how, and now they’re finishing each others sentences on the matter of the microagression known as cultural appropriation. TinyDuck would be so pleased — in another day or two they’ll be throwing down rap duets or something.

  245. The best all-deaths data comes from irregular Friday tweet threads by genius demographer Lyman Stone. His ability to model the near-term eventual numbers from the current trickle of data is amazing.

    He measured passage of the 350K level a while back, in agreement with Ron Unz’s comment.

    Most recent (abbreviated) death thread from Nov. 20:

    Nov. 13 thread:

    If you can’t read graphs you shouldn’t be offering opinions in this thread.

  246. @Steve Sailer
    @HorriblyDepressed

    Were the long-term effects of the shutdown what killed all those people in April?

    Replies: @HorriblyDepressed

    @SteveSailer

    That is a good point. Let me try to reason through this more clearly.

    Let’s just consider the graph up through October 3. That eliminates the 8-week lag in reporting and leaves us with two “humps” to consider.

    First, some of these excess deaths are due to COVID. What I really want to know is how many excess deaths are due to COVID and how does that compare to something like a bad flu season.

    We know that suicides and drug overdoses increased this year. I assume that the excess “deaths of despair” would become greater as the year progressed. Deaths of despair might not account for much of the first hump, but would account for more of the second hump and might account for a majority of excess deaths as summer turns to fall and then winter.

    There are also some causes of death that we would expect to decrease due to the lockdown, such as vehicular accidents and workplace accidents.

    Plus, there is one more broad factor to consider. The average person dying of COVID is 80 years old or older and has an average of 2 to 3 co-morbidities. What are the most common causes of death for people in that category? I assume that heart failure and stroke would be two major causes of death for these people. What other causes are commonly listed on the death certificate? Cancer? (I don’t know.) I would expect that the deaths due to heart failure, stroke, etc. for octogenarians with two or three co-morbidities has decreased this year.

    So, what would this graph look like if we took All Excess Deaths, subtracted Excess “Deaths of Despair”, added Deficit Deaths due to Accident and subtracted Deficit Deaths due to Heart Failure, Stroke, etc.? That formula might look like:

    [All Excess Death] – [Excess Death of Despair] + [Deficit Accidental Death] – [Deficit Old Age Deaths] = [Excess Death due to COVID]

    All of these numbers should be available, somewhere. Then we can take that number and compare it to some past epidemics in the United States. I assume that would be flu epidemics for the most part. I can’t think of any other major epidemics in the last 30 or 40 years.

    That would give us a good starting point for a discussion of the COVID Crisis and how we have responded to it. I am not much of a statistician, but what do you think, Mr. Sailer? Does that sound like a reasonable approach? Would you be interested in crunching those numbers? If not, where would one search for the data to make these computations?

    🙂

  247. @HA
    @Achmed E. Newman

    "Really, that graph doesn’t look scary at all."

    So what? The graph is of those we DIDN'T save. The fact that locking down and distancing and masking managed to keep the death rates at what you claim is a "not scary at all" level is just, if anything, a high-five for those who mandated all those restrictions.

    In other words, if you were trying to shoot yourself in the foot, that was pretty good aim.

    The scarier graph is the one that showing how many WOULD have died with let-'er-rip. If you want to pretend that's not in the 7 figures (which would have been a lot easier to argue before the number we didn't save got as high as it did) then go and show it. As it is, the fact that the first peak -- the one that happened before the lockdowns really got underway -- is the scariest one is going to make that effort all the more difficult.

    Likewise, arguing over whether those those we didn't save from COVID is larger than those who died because of what was done to prevent that 7-figure death toll is not going to help you, either. Neither is trying to compare the ones we didn't save from COVID to the let-'er-rip deaths from the Hong Kong flu. Apples and oranges.

    The fact that you keep mixing these numbers up makes your argument all the more pathetic. But again, if that's what you were trying to do, then just keep on doing it.

    Replies: @anonymous coward, @Catdog, @Achmed E. Newman

    What graph that shows how many people would have died? Do you mean the 2 million that the shrill hysterics got from their mathematical models based on mortality rates with uncertain numerators and denominators? My point is that there have been bugs before that have given higher excess deaths. Society didn’t go nuts those other times.

    Aren’t you the big Healthcare Hero, talking about who “we didn’t save”! Who do you think you are, Alan Alda in a M*A*S*H* unit? You have no idea how much damage people like you, HA, have done to society with your PanicFest. Those numbers aren’t in yet.

    I’m not mixing up any numbers, because I didn’t lay out any numbers to mix up. The mix-up is in your head, HA. I am somebody with some PERSPECTIVE who can see from the general numbers around him that this is no Black Plague 2.0. Were it that, we STILL wouldn’t need mandatory LOCKDOWNS, as people would be holing up on their own with their beans, bullets, and band-aids.

    • Replies: @HA
    @Achmed E. Newman

    "My point is that there have been bugs before that have given higher excess deaths. Society didn’t go nuts those other times."

    Sure, and civilizations come and go and sometimes the immigrants wind up wiping out the prior inhabitants (or at least their menfolk). It's no big deal, really. Just sit back and enjoy it and stop clinging to your way of life so much. Or else, decide that, no, sitting back and taking it is not always the best strategy given that alternatives are not possible. But if you're going with the second route, like Steve has chosen to do, then do it consistently.

    And the only people going nuts right now are those apoplectic about the existence of a vaccine some of them were assuring us was impossible (hence the only alternative was to sit back and enjoy it), and how people are lining up to get a jab of ground up virus parts that will turn them into "dog-boy and pig-girl" even though according to people like you, those virus parts are no big deal even when they're an actual full-blown virus.

    The only people who have time and again been proven to be nuts are the ones who told us this was just a flu like any other and would take out only 5K, or else maybe just 10K, that this thing would fizzle out in the summer (Yeah, baby) because...humidity!!, that this thing would disappear from the news once the election was over because it's only a conspiracy to unseat Trump, and that we were "almost at herd immunity". One failed prediction after another. Stacked against that, a two million worst case scenario (for a "let-'er-rip strategy that no one went with) is not something anyone needs to apologize for given that we might make it to half a million even with all the precautions (however slipshod scattered) we did take.

    As for Black Death 2.0, put that into any search engine and tell me how many links come back telling you that you've just described coronavirus. Go ahead, do it and report back to us, but be forewarned, if the results make it clear that the only time Black Death and coronavirus were used in the same sentence was to create a strawman, then you've got no business calling other people nuts.

    And you're going to cite me Alan Alda from M*A*S*H? Really? You're telling me those TVLand reruns are still occupying real estate in your brain? Wow. That says a lot more about what's wrong with you than what's wrong with me.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @utu, @Hippopotamusdrome

  248. @Buck Ransom
    @PiltdownMan

    My condolences to your college friend who lost his father tragically and unexpectedly at the age of 93. I wonder if he was one of those in a New York nursing home last spring. In any case, his family can take comfort knowing that the fine old fellow was still able to vote, possibly 2 or 3 times, for Joe Biden in November.

    Replies: @PiltdownMan, @AndrewR

    What a disgusting comment

  249. @Ron Unz

    And December is likely to be pretty bad when finally counted up sometime in February.
     
    Yep. Many of the writers (and perhaps most of the commenters) on this website seem to have a very different view of the dangers of Covid-19 than Steve or myself. Given over-counting and under-counting problems, for months I've been emphasizing that "excess deaths" were the most reliable metric to evaluate the true impact of the epidemic.

    Since October I'd also predicted that such total fatalities might approach 500K by the end of the year. Offhand, it looks like we easily broke 350K by the end of November, and given the terrible numbers so far in December, my projection might not be too far off.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Dutch Boy, @BobX, @AnotherDad, @Hippopotamusdrome

    I believe the death stastistics like I believe the Biden vote stastistics. Wouldn’t they have thought of the total death numbers in their scam?

  250. So, uh, this chart shows us that, uh, lockdowns and masks don’t work? Put little arrows where masks were mandated in big states.

  251. @Mark G.
    @utu


    The factor of 10 lower fatality rate in Sweden’s neighbors is due to lockdowns and more effective tracing and isolating ability.
     
    Sweden has a larger number of immigrants than nearby Scandinavian countries. The police have little control in some of the large immigrant areas. Government officials there have said privately one reason lockdowns were not instituted was because they could not be successfully enforced in immigrant areas.

    Many of these immigrants in Sweden are unemployable because of low IQ and being unable to follow directions due to not understanding the native language. The Swedish government set up a government program to find jobs for these unemployable immigrants and gave many of them jobs working in nursing homes. This was a bad idea. It led to higher levels of deaths in nursing homes there.

    In the most recent wave of cases, Sweden has had a lower death rate than several other European countries that had hard lockdowns in the Spring. The countries that locked down hard earlier may have just spread some of their deaths over a longer period of time and shifted some deaths to a later point in time.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief, @utu, @LondonBob

    Sweden has their half term break in the spring later than their Scandi neighbours, skiing in the Alps is very popular so it got seeded in Stockholm in a way it didn’t elsewhere.

    Afraid Steve referencing Carl Bergstrom was a low point. No doubt covid 19 is a nasty bug but it came and went very quickly, the question was whether there was much you could do and how proportionate was the response.

    I know dozens of people of various ages who had it and they have all been fine, except for a South Asian lady who still hasn’t got her sense of smell back after getting it in the spring, before a lockdown was imposed in London.

  252. Looking through all the graphs at https://public.tableau.com/profile/dataviz8737#!/vizhome/COVID_excess_mort_withcauses_12092020/WeeklyExcessDeaths and have a few questions. Why is the New England area not getting a second wave? They seem to have had a spike in early April and now, it’s over. Why are White people experiencing a massive second peak, that no other race is experiencing? Why are malignant neoplasms and alzheimer’s cases increasing due to Covid-19?

  253. @JR Ewing
    @Kaz

    Every virus has potential long term complications.

    This is yet another way of saying, "I don't want to admit I was hysterical about a flu bug, so I'm going to pretend that it was worse than it really is."

    All the BS about "asymptomatic spread" is in the same vein, except that's something that was invented (rather than was exaggerated) in order to make covid appear worse than it really is and justify the continued panic.

    Humans have been dealing with respiratory viruses since the start of history. There is nothing unique about the one we found in 2020.

    Replies: @LondonBob

    Long covid is no more common than long term issues with any other virus.

    https://www.england.nhs.uk/2020/10/nhs-to-offer-long-covid-help/

    One in ten, but a tiny number after more than three weeks, a fair number of whom will psychosomatic.

  254. @Anonymous
    I live in a city with millions. All this would be more believable if I knew of a single person who died from it. LOL

    Yeah a few grandpas in their late 70s got sick but got over it.

    But I’m sure there’s an uptick, what you’d expect with kind of a bad bug going around. It happens. No reason to destroy the country. And overall, I’m sorry, but this was no biggie.

    Replies: @PiltdownMan, @dataBro, @Lurker, @My SIMPLE Pseudonymic Handle, @Occasional lurker

    It’s not the black death, but it’s also not the flu. All of western Europe (UK, Netherlands, France, belgium, Spain, Italy) tried hard to ignore the virus (“less severe than the flu”) and do essentially nothing. but it didn’t work, there is a point when in fact everyone knows someone who is in hospital, when care homes are no longer functioning because staff are off sick or are too scared to treat the sick (no one wore masks and distanced so viral loads in the average infection were high), when hospitals get overwhelmed.
    Whether you take official measures or not, about one third of the population severely restricted their contacts and their free time activities, and that’s what brings the economy down. My parents, who are great travellers, haven’ travelled at all this years, although most of the year they would have been able to, and istead of 5 times per month the went to a restaurant only two or three times during this whole years, and than was in summer when incidences were very low in Germany and they could sit outside.

    Warm Countries with young populations and low rates of A blood type can easily ignore COVID, for others, it’s more difficult.

  255. @PiltdownMan
    Not quite OT:

    India buys 1.6b vaccine doses, said to be most in the world

    https://www.straitstimes.com/world/india-buys-16b-vaccine-doses-said-to-be-most-in-the-world
     
    But a billion of those doses are for Novavax, which is still being tested (though the early results look promising.)



    After Facing Delays, Does The Novavax Covid Vaccine Still Matter?


    While the Novavax vaccine might arrive later than expected, it still holds promise. Firstly, based on data from early trials there are indicators that it might be highly effective. For example, the antibody responses for the Novavax vaccine were meaningfully stronger than other vaccines that have been reported at that time, per data from its Australian trials that were available in August.

     

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2020/12/03/after-facing-delays-does-the-novavax-covid-vaccine-still-matter/?sh=3fd26a0268b7

     

    https://i.imgur.com/gTrlN3v.jpg

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    On Indian and US advance I assume contingent on approvals purchases, India has half a billion out of their 1.6 billion, and the US as I recall off the top of my head 610 million out of 1,010 billion cited in the table from AZ/Oxford, which is still a testing clown show. So it’ll be quite some time before we know if that version pans out as they essentially restart their Phase III trials with a new, accidentally found dosing regime, probably dealing with a problem anticipated by the developers of Sputnik V, 100 million for India, which in its “unaligned” days was very close to. On the other hand, who knows about Russia’s production capacity, and they’re still doing their Phase III trial.

  256. Weird fucking pandemic when you have to be constantly browbeating people about how bad it is or else they wouldn’t know.

  257. Look at the area underneath the orange curve. Deaths had been running somewhat below average for the last three years. Then all those overdue geezers where forcibly confined to infectious nursing homes and denied the basic necessities of life by Cuomo and other likeminded fanatics. Presto, excess deaths.

  258. @Steve Sailer
    @Travis

    So that's why deaths climbed 40% from early March to the second week in April?

    Replies: @RVS, @Travis, @MGB, @Anon

    You have done a bangup job of dodging all the very logical and reasonable points levied against you in this comment section, you fucking hack. Great work. The coof really has made like half the internet punditry class lose their goddamn mind.

  259. @Achmed E. Newman
    @HA

    What graph that shows how many people would have died? Do you mean the 2 million that the shrill hysterics got from their mathematical models based on mortality rates with uncertain numerators and denominators? My point is that there have been bugs before that have given higher excess deaths. Society didn't go nuts those other times.

    Aren't you the big Healthcare Hero, talking about who "we didn't save"! Who do you think you are, Alan Alda in a M*A*S*H* unit? You have no idea how much damage people like you, HA, have done to society with your PanicFest. Those numbers aren't in yet.

    I'm not mixing up any numbers, because I didn't lay out any numbers to mix up. The mix-up is in your head, HA. I am somebody with some PERSPECTIVE who can see from the general numbers around him that this is no Black Plague 2.0. Were it that, we STILL wouldn't need mandatory LOCKDOWNS, as people would be holing up on their own with their beans, bullets, and band-aids.

    Replies: @HA

    “My point is that there have been bugs before that have given higher excess deaths. Society didn’t go nuts those other times.”

    Sure, and civilizations come and go and sometimes the immigrants wind up wiping out the prior inhabitants (or at least their menfolk). It’s no big deal, really. Just sit back and enjoy it and stop clinging to your way of life so much. Or else, decide that, no, sitting back and taking it is not always the best strategy given that alternatives are not possible. But if you’re going with the second route, like Steve has chosen to do, then do it consistently.

    And the only people going nuts right now are those apoplectic about the existence of a vaccine some of them were assuring us was impossible (hence the only alternative was to sit back and enjoy it), and how people are lining up to get a jab of ground up virus parts that will turn them into “dog-boy and pig-girl” even though according to people like you, those virus parts are no big deal even when they’re an actual full-blown virus.

    The only people who have time and again been proven to be nuts are the ones who told us this was just a flu like any other and would take out only 5K, or else maybe just 10K, that this thing would fizzle out in the summer (Yeah, baby) because…humidity!!, that this thing would disappear from the news once the election was over because it’s only a conspiracy to unseat Trump, and that we were “almost at herd immunity”. One failed prediction after another. Stacked against that, a two million worst case scenario (for a “let-‘er-rip strategy that no one went with) is not something anyone needs to apologize for given that we might make it to half a million even with all the precautions (however slipshod scattered) we did take.

    As for Black Death 2.0, put that into any search engine and tell me how many links come back telling you that you’ve just described coronavirus. Go ahead, do it and report back to us, but be forewarned, if the results make it clear that the only time Black Death and coronavirus were used in the same sentence was to create a strawman, then you’ve got no business calling other people nuts.

    And you’re going to cite me Alan Alda from M*A*S*H? Really? You’re telling me those TVLand reruns are still occupying real estate in your brain? Wow. That says a lot more about what’s wrong with you than what’s wrong with me.

    • Thanks: That Would Be Telling
    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @HA

    My point is, HA, that people like you are ACTING like this is the Black Death 2.0. Why would you want to forcibly lock people up (China's way) or force them to shut down businesses and wear silly face diapers, unless you were scared hysterical? The Black Plague would have scared the hell of all of us. This time, you, Mr. Unz, Mr. Sailer only to a slighter, more reasonable degree, and millions of others have let this Infotainment PanicFest get the better of you.

    I brought up Alan Alda, as he was the righteous lefty who new it all, and wanted to save everyone. That sounds like your "we could have done so much more!" BS from your comment, only you don't have any skills like a M*A*S*H* surgeon, but just speculation on the internet.

    Your 2 million dead(!) in a year did not happen. The masks aren't doing squat for anyone who is not very very vulnerable (people I'd personally stay away from out of courtesy, or wear a mask upon request for, as with my Mom). For the rest of us it's a joke. There is no proof in the numbers that the face masks have done anything to change the number of fatalities.

    Regarding the vaccine, I had no clue whether one could be created or not. I never wrote about that because I just didn't care that much. This wave will be over soon enough, vaccine or not. As I wrote up top, I'm not really averse to taking it, but I see no reason to be a guinea pig when I'm not worried about this disease much.

    HA, your savior complex doesn't impress me one bit. I'd rather see a free country again someday. That's what I'd like to be a little bit responsible for.

    Replies: @utu, @Travis, @HA

    , @utu
    @HA


    just a flu like any other and would take out only 5K, or else maybe just 10K, that this thing would fizzle out in the summer (Yeah, baby) because…humidity!!, that this thing would disappear from the news once the election was over because it’s only a conspiracy to unseat Trump, and that we were “almost at herd immunity”. One failed prediction after another.
     
    An anthology or taxonomy of all idiotic utterances should be compiled and their authors should be remembered.
    , @Hippopotamusdrome
    @HA



    nuts are the ones who told us this was just a flu like any other

     

    It's not a flu, it's a coronavirus, which is the cold.


    would take out only 5K, or else maybe just 10

     

    Wern't they right?


    would disappear from the news once the election was over

     

    That was optimistic. Corona is forever.

    Replies: @HA

  260. @Citizen of a Silly Country
    Steve,

    This is beneath you, and, frankly, saddening. Only the tin-hat crowd ever claimed the Covid-19 wasn't real.

    Yes, Steve, Covid-19 is real. You got us.

    Okay, back to adult world, which, inexplicably, you seem to have abandoned on this subject. The question with Covid was never "Is it real?" but was "How bad is it, and what is the cost/benefit of various measures to slow its spread?"

    Covid appears to be on track to accelerating (not generally causing) the deaths of an additional ~320k Americans (funny how that term no longer means much to me), i.e. 0.1% of the population. That's no joke, but it's not the Black Death either.

    But the question was always (and remains) how many people would have died (actually, had their death accelerated) if we had simply warned vulnerable groups to be careful and let the virus spread quickly among the healthy population vs how many people would have died (sorry, had their deaths accelerated) if we had massive shutdowns?

    In addition, we would consider the negative externalities of a shutdown, such as businesses being destroyed, increased suicides, increased substance abuse, kids not learning because they're not in school, increased domestic abuse, etc.

    Then, we would weigh to the expected number of additional accelerated deaths (admittedly, a guess) vs all of those negative consequences (again, a guess). Because, you know, that's what serious adults do. We make hard choices based on the facts available.

    Instead, we had Harpies (and some internet pundits) throwing logic and facts out the window and demanding the world shut down for an admittedly very, very nasty flu-like virus because, well, because they didn't like it.

    Steve, wake up! Instead of showing a graph pretty much all of us have seen, why don't you analyze the numbers. This post is marginally - and just marginally - above the Today Show ladies clutching their pearls about the rising case count. Jesus, it's embarrassing.

    You're one of the best columnists of the past 30 years, a person who's writings hopefully will be read by (White) generations to come. Don't let it end this way.

    Replies: @Kaz, @vhrm, @Old Prude, @Anon, @OutsideMan, @Anon87

    Given everything you have just outlined, do you think the folks in charge of making this risk/benefit analysis had as their goal the reduction of mortality and economic harm? Because it sure looks like they maximized both. Incompetent or deliberate is the real question.

  261. @Citizen of a Silly Country
    Steve,

    This is beneath you, and, frankly, saddening. Only the tin-hat crowd ever claimed the Covid-19 wasn't real.

    Yes, Steve, Covid-19 is real. You got us.

    Okay, back to adult world, which, inexplicably, you seem to have abandoned on this subject. The question with Covid was never "Is it real?" but was "How bad is it, and what is the cost/benefit of various measures to slow its spread?"

    Covid appears to be on track to accelerating (not generally causing) the deaths of an additional ~320k Americans (funny how that term no longer means much to me), i.e. 0.1% of the population. That's no joke, but it's not the Black Death either.

    But the question was always (and remains) how many people would have died (actually, had their death accelerated) if we had simply warned vulnerable groups to be careful and let the virus spread quickly among the healthy population vs how many people would have died (sorry, had their deaths accelerated) if we had massive shutdowns?

    In addition, we would consider the negative externalities of a shutdown, such as businesses being destroyed, increased suicides, increased substance abuse, kids not learning because they're not in school, increased domestic abuse, etc.

    Then, we would weigh to the expected number of additional accelerated deaths (admittedly, a guess) vs all of those negative consequences (again, a guess). Because, you know, that's what serious adults do. We make hard choices based on the facts available.

    Instead, we had Harpies (and some internet pundits) throwing logic and facts out the window and demanding the world shut down for an admittedly very, very nasty flu-like virus because, well, because they didn't like it.

    Steve, wake up! Instead of showing a graph pretty much all of us have seen, why don't you analyze the numbers. This post is marginally - and just marginally - above the Today Show ladies clutching their pearls about the rising case count. Jesus, it's embarrassing.

    You're one of the best columnists of the past 30 years, a person who's writings hopefully will be read by (White) generations to come. Don't let it end this way.

    Replies: @Kaz, @vhrm, @Old Prude, @Anon, @OutsideMan, @Anon87

    I tend to agree with you, but perhaps with Steve’s earlier health issues in life that might justifiably make him a bit more nervous on the topic? But him dropping those sedentary induced lbs a bit ago was probably a good idea.

    And also, who do you ever agree with 100% of the time? For example Pat Buchanan usually is always on point, but I don’t agree with his take on Hebdo cartoons. And that’s ok. It’s easy to skip Steve’s covid related articles if you want, kind of like I do when he has a super detailed golf course architecture post. Sorry Steve!

    • Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country
    @Anon87

    Agreed that Steve might be particularly vulnerable to Covid, but that doesn't excuse his inability to analyze the data, which is kind of Steve's thing.

    If this is just too personal for him, he should say so and step back.

    Regarding not agreeing with someone 100% of the time, I also agree. However, there are times and issues that matter more than others. This is one of those times, and this is one of those issues.

    As I said, Steve is one of the greats. We all owe him our thanks - and money which I send him every month - but his writing on this subject - a hugely important subject - deserves criticism.

    , @Citizen of a Silly Country
    @Anon87

    Agreed that Steve might be particularly vulnerable to Covid, but that doesn't excuse his inability to analyze the data, which is kind of Steve's thing.

    If this is just too personal for him, he should say so and step back.

    Regarding not agreeing with someone 100% of the time, I also agree. However, there are times and issues that matter more than others. This is one of those times, and this is one of those issues.

    As I said, Steve is one of the greats. We all owe him our thanks - and money which I send him every month - but his writing on this subject - a hugely important subject - deserves criticism.

  262. @Achmed E. Newman
    I would respectfully ask all the people arguing here to take 3 minutes and read this VDare John Derbyhire article - Coronavirus Overreaction: Ruling Class Hypocrisy And Absolutism. (It's not on unz, but I don't blame that on any unfairness of Ron Unz. He may be damn close to a nutcase, but he is extremely fair in his inclusion of articles).

    It's really just the 2nd part that I'd like people to read. The hypocricy of the elites during this PanicFest is well known by the commenters here and there's not much of any argument, I doubt. Mr. Derbyshire has been anti-panic from the beginning, but just mildly so, with a little hedging early on. He's very civil about it all, even know, as he always is. Peak Stupidity does not stoop to that level of civility.

    I've never seen a country act like it's occupied by a majority of hysterical menopausal women before. Interesting ...

    Replies: @Anon87

    When the elites disappear into their bunkers, panic rooms, pedo islands, etc. is when I might start to think this is serious (for those under 80). By all of their behavior we can be pretty sure this is a bad virus, but nothing to really worry about.

    Makes me wonder, is someone making sure Clint Eastwood is ok and not around anyone close to being infected? That would be a real capper to 2020.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Anon87

    "Go ahead, Kung Flu, make my day."

    , @Hippopotamusdrome
    @Anon87



    When the elites disappear into their bunkers, panic rooms, pedo islands, etc. is when I might start to think this is serious

     

    Masque[less] of the Red Death:
    Newsom at maskless party
  263. Anon[551] • Disclaimer says:

    Sure, and civilizations come and go and sometimes the immigrants wind up wiping out the prior inhabitants (or at least their menfolk). It’s no big deal, really. Just sit back and enjoy it and stop clinging to your way of life so much

    If preserving civilization is the goal, then it’s not clear that putting a generation+ of younger people under major, extended restrictions is a net positive. The people at greatest risk will have almost no additional children, and people who are in or approaching prime childbearing years are at very low risk.

    From a civilization-preservation POV, the optimal approach is probably major protection of the very old, moderate protection of the moderately old, and a mostly laissez faire approach for those under forty or so.

  264. @HA
    @Achmed E. Newman

    "My point is that there have been bugs before that have given higher excess deaths. Society didn’t go nuts those other times."

    Sure, and civilizations come and go and sometimes the immigrants wind up wiping out the prior inhabitants (or at least their menfolk). It's no big deal, really. Just sit back and enjoy it and stop clinging to your way of life so much. Or else, decide that, no, sitting back and taking it is not always the best strategy given that alternatives are not possible. But if you're going with the second route, like Steve has chosen to do, then do it consistently.

    And the only people going nuts right now are those apoplectic about the existence of a vaccine some of them were assuring us was impossible (hence the only alternative was to sit back and enjoy it), and how people are lining up to get a jab of ground up virus parts that will turn them into "dog-boy and pig-girl" even though according to people like you, those virus parts are no big deal even when they're an actual full-blown virus.

    The only people who have time and again been proven to be nuts are the ones who told us this was just a flu like any other and would take out only 5K, or else maybe just 10K, that this thing would fizzle out in the summer (Yeah, baby) because...humidity!!, that this thing would disappear from the news once the election was over because it's only a conspiracy to unseat Trump, and that we were "almost at herd immunity". One failed prediction after another. Stacked against that, a two million worst case scenario (for a "let-'er-rip strategy that no one went with) is not something anyone needs to apologize for given that we might make it to half a million even with all the precautions (however slipshod scattered) we did take.

    As for Black Death 2.0, put that into any search engine and tell me how many links come back telling you that you've just described coronavirus. Go ahead, do it and report back to us, but be forewarned, if the results make it clear that the only time Black Death and coronavirus were used in the same sentence was to create a strawman, then you've got no business calling other people nuts.

    And you're going to cite me Alan Alda from M*A*S*H? Really? You're telling me those TVLand reruns are still occupying real estate in your brain? Wow. That says a lot more about what's wrong with you than what's wrong with me.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @utu, @Hippopotamusdrome

    My point is, HA, that people like you are ACTING like this is the Black Death 2.0. Why would you want to forcibly lock people up (China’s way) or force them to shut down businesses and wear silly face diapers, unless you were scared hysterical? The Black Plague would have scared the hell of all of us. This time, you, Mr. Unz, Mr. Sailer only to a slighter, more reasonable degree, and millions of others have let this Infotainment PanicFest get the better of you.

    I brought up Alan Alda, as he was the righteous lefty who new it all, and wanted to save everyone. That sounds like your “we could have done so much more!” BS from your comment, only you don’t have any skills like a M*A*S*H* surgeon, but just speculation on the internet.

    Your 2 million dead(!) in a year did not happen. The masks aren’t doing squat for anyone who is not very very vulnerable (people I’d personally stay away from out of courtesy, or wear a mask upon request for, as with my Mom). For the rest of us it’s a joke. There is no proof in the numbers that the face masks have done anything to change the number of fatalities.

    Regarding the vaccine, I had no clue whether one could be created or not. I never wrote about that because I just didn’t care that much. This wave will be over soon enough, vaccine or not. As I wrote up top, I’m not really averse to taking it, but I see no reason to be a guinea pig when I’m not worried about this disease much.

    HA, your savior complex doesn’t impress me one bit. I’d rather see a free country again someday. That’s what I’d like to be a little bit responsible for.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Why would you want to forcibly lock people up (China’s way) or force them to shut down businesses and wear silly face diapers, unless you were scared hysterical?

    Why? To drive R0 below 1 to stop the epidemics. It is possible to eliminate virus by non-pharmaceutical means. Taiwan and New Zealand pretty much did that.


    The masks aren’t doing squat for anyone who is not very very vulnerable
     
    Masks are not to protect vulnerable but to lower R0. This happens when they are used universally. A mask worn by an individual among mask-less population does not protect this individual in a long term because masks are not perfect and the individual will eventually get infected. But when almost everybody wears a mask then a miracle happens and R0 goes below 1 and everybody is protected from infection whether vulnerable or not. The reason behind the miracle is a simple fact that the period of infectiousness is finite so the masked population can outlast the virus.

    I have noticed that many people do not get masks and wonder whether it is a willful ignorance or just a plain ignorance. Not sure about your case. It may have something to do with the fact that many people are unable to do the calculus for cooperative strategies and persist in optimizing individualistic strategies which in some situations get them and everybody else screwed. Scott Alexander addressed this issue:

    The Prisoner’s Dilemma, as played by two very dumb libertarians who keep ending up on defect-defect. There’s a much better outcome available if they could figure out the coordination, but coordination is hard. From a god’s-eye-view, we can agree that cooperate-cooperate is a better outcome than defect-defect, but neither prisoner within the system can make it happen. – Scott Alexander
     

    Your 2 million dead(!) in a year did not happen.
     
    It did not happen because of combination of all countermeasures. The 301k dead (in the US as of todays) did not have to happen either if we were smarter about countermeasures. Finland and Norway applied countermeasures that Sweden did not and they ended up with 10 times lower death toll.
    , @Travis
    @Achmed E. Newman

    the masks actually increased the number of infected. Fauci, the CDC, the WHO and the Surgeon General all agreed on this in March because this is what the science tells us. People are always adjusting their masks (myself included) when walking around, they end up touching their faces much more than when not wearing a mask. Most people wear the same filthy cloth mask each day , not properly washing them, thus wearing a filthy bacteria infested rag over their mouth everyday.

    Back in April when we knew less about COVID Steve had plenty of posts about the fatality rate and speculating on how many people had been infected based in the antibody testing, etc...Now we know the case fatality rate is much lower than 1% and probably below .4%. For the majority of Americans, those under the age of 50 , the fatality rate is around 1 in 1000, which is similar to the flu fatality rate. The CDC estimates that 100 million Americans have already recovered from COVID, which puts the fatality rate at under .3% for Americans.

    Back in April Steve posted charts about the benefits of flattening the curve. The reason was to reduce hospitalizations and the science predicted this would prolong the epidemic but not actually reduce fatalities. After the curve was flattened the justification for the lock-downs changed, without any debate about the long term damage this was doing to the well being of Americans. People over 60 certainly have reason to be concerned, but closing schools and businesses causes more harm than keeping them open.

    , @HA
    @Achmed E. Newman

    "My point is, HA, that people like you are ACTING like this is the Black Death 2.0"

    No, somewhere in the low 7 figures is not the Black Death. Enough with the strawman already. Again, the people screaming that the end is near are the ones who think the ground up bits of this supposedly innocuous virus are somehow going to combine so as to transmogrify us into (and this is a direct quote) "dog-boy and pig-girl". And you dare lecture me on panicking? Get over yourself.

    That's about as hypocritical as guy whoWhite-Knights for Mr. "facediapers", and then has the gall to accuse me of trying to shame people into compliance. Pot, meet kettle.

    If you'd have been honest enough to admit from the start that this may indeed be far worse than any flu we've seen in decades, but note that despite that, we still have to worry about the costs, then even those who disagreed with you would probably be muttering to themselves under their breath how you might well be right. Instead, you got sidetracked with idiotic grasping at straws about how it's just the flu, and how less than 10,000 will die, and how being asked to mask up in a pandemic (and getting hostile stares for refusing) is somehow the "greatest seizure of individual liberties ever perpetrated on the American people, and how this was bound to disappear in summer, or else come the election (because something that Chinese, and Iranians, and Israelis, and Italians, and Chechens, and Russians all agree on HAS to be a conspiracy against Trump), or that we were almost at herd immunity, or that calling people "diaperface" and "chemo-tard" is a worthwhile addition to the discussion, or that anti-vaxxers and militia loons are worthy allies. You allowed clowns like that to sidetrack what could have been a genuine (albeit brutal) argument. Now, some of you want to pretend that fiscal responsibility was your point all along? Sorry, if that were true, you wouldn't have let the freaks to monopolize the discussion.

    I'm not Fauci's biggest fan by any stretch, and I worry plenty about what the response is going to do to us. But if you're the alternative, then I'll stick with what I got. Fix your own house before pointing out the cracks in mine.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @BenKenobi

  265. @Steve Sailer
    @Anon

    Clearly, being terrified of getting a vaccine shot indicates heaping quantities of the Right Stuff.

    Replies: @the one they call Desanex, @Chrisnonymous, @SunBakedSuburb, @Federalist, @MB

    Terrified or skeptical?
    There’s a big difference.
    At least for some of us despicables shoehorned in between the jingoistic Deplorables and the Riden’ with Biden crew.

    Not to be a complete contrarian, but big govt. and big pharma don’t have the most encouraging track records. Anybody remember the ’76 or ’09 Swine flu vaccine fiascos? You gotta love the no liability riders for the vaccine makers because of the same.

    (Jon Rappaport says it’s all bunk according to various studies. Historically deaths were falling before vaccines were implemented. IOW the post hoc propter hoc fallacy.)

    YMM definitely vary but having the military “deliver” the vaccine has all the earmarks, if not fine print ability to morph into another cattle drive/coerced lemmings clown show. Joey and the K would love to run with that setup. Why they might even be willing to waive the arrest and show trial of Donny in the new regime. No medals though.

  266. @Achmed E. Newman
    @HA

    My point is, HA, that people like you are ACTING like this is the Black Death 2.0. Why would you want to forcibly lock people up (China's way) or force them to shut down businesses and wear silly face diapers, unless you were scared hysterical? The Black Plague would have scared the hell of all of us. This time, you, Mr. Unz, Mr. Sailer only to a slighter, more reasonable degree, and millions of others have let this Infotainment PanicFest get the better of you.

    I brought up Alan Alda, as he was the righteous lefty who new it all, and wanted to save everyone. That sounds like your "we could have done so much more!" BS from your comment, only you don't have any skills like a M*A*S*H* surgeon, but just speculation on the internet.

    Your 2 million dead(!) in a year did not happen. The masks aren't doing squat for anyone who is not very very vulnerable (people I'd personally stay away from out of courtesy, or wear a mask upon request for, as with my Mom). For the rest of us it's a joke. There is no proof in the numbers that the face masks have done anything to change the number of fatalities.

    Regarding the vaccine, I had no clue whether one could be created or not. I never wrote about that because I just didn't care that much. This wave will be over soon enough, vaccine or not. As I wrote up top, I'm not really averse to taking it, but I see no reason to be a guinea pig when I'm not worried about this disease much.

    HA, your savior complex doesn't impress me one bit. I'd rather see a free country again someday. That's what I'd like to be a little bit responsible for.

    Replies: @utu, @Travis, @HA

    Why would you want to forcibly lock people up (China’s way) or force them to shut down businesses and wear silly face diapers, unless you were scared hysterical?

    Why? To drive R0 below 1 to stop the epidemics. It is possible to eliminate virus by non-pharmaceutical means. Taiwan and New Zealand pretty much did that.

    The masks aren’t doing squat for anyone who is not very very vulnerable

    Masks are not to protect vulnerable but to lower R0. This happens when they are used universally. A mask worn by an individual among mask-less population does not protect this individual in a long term because masks are not perfect and the individual will eventually get infected. But when almost everybody wears a mask then a miracle happens and R0 goes below 1 and everybody is protected from infection whether vulnerable or not. The reason behind the miracle is a simple fact that the period of infectiousness is finite so the masked population can outlast the virus.

    I have noticed that many people do not get masks and wonder whether it is a willful ignorance or just a plain ignorance. Not sure about your case. It may have something to do with the fact that many people are unable to do the calculus for cooperative strategies and persist in optimizing individualistic strategies which in some situations get them and everybody else screwed. Scott Alexander addressed this issue:

    The Prisoner’s Dilemma, as played by two very dumb libertarians who keep ending up on defect-defect. There’s a much better outcome available if they could figure out the coordination, but coordination is hard. From a god’s-eye-view, we can agree that cooperate-cooperate is a better outcome than defect-defect, but neither prisoner within the system can make it happen. – Scott Alexander

    Your 2 million dead(!) in a year did not happen.

    It did not happen because of combination of all countermeasures. The 301k dead (in the US as of todays) did not have to happen either if we were smarter about countermeasures. Finland and Norway applied countermeasures that Sweden did not and they ended up with 10 times lower death toll.

  267. @HA
    @Achmed E. Newman

    "My point is that there have been bugs before that have given higher excess deaths. Society didn’t go nuts those other times."

    Sure, and civilizations come and go and sometimes the immigrants wind up wiping out the prior inhabitants (or at least their menfolk). It's no big deal, really. Just sit back and enjoy it and stop clinging to your way of life so much. Or else, decide that, no, sitting back and taking it is not always the best strategy given that alternatives are not possible. But if you're going with the second route, like Steve has chosen to do, then do it consistently.

    And the only people going nuts right now are those apoplectic about the existence of a vaccine some of them were assuring us was impossible (hence the only alternative was to sit back and enjoy it), and how people are lining up to get a jab of ground up virus parts that will turn them into "dog-boy and pig-girl" even though according to people like you, those virus parts are no big deal even when they're an actual full-blown virus.

    The only people who have time and again been proven to be nuts are the ones who told us this was just a flu like any other and would take out only 5K, or else maybe just 10K, that this thing would fizzle out in the summer (Yeah, baby) because...humidity!!, that this thing would disappear from the news once the election was over because it's only a conspiracy to unseat Trump, and that we were "almost at herd immunity". One failed prediction after another. Stacked against that, a two million worst case scenario (for a "let-'er-rip strategy that no one went with) is not something anyone needs to apologize for given that we might make it to half a million even with all the precautions (however slipshod scattered) we did take.

    As for Black Death 2.0, put that into any search engine and tell me how many links come back telling you that you've just described coronavirus. Go ahead, do it and report back to us, but be forewarned, if the results make it clear that the only time Black Death and coronavirus were used in the same sentence was to create a strawman, then you've got no business calling other people nuts.

    And you're going to cite me Alan Alda from M*A*S*H? Really? You're telling me those TVLand reruns are still occupying real estate in your brain? Wow. That says a lot more about what's wrong with you than what's wrong with me.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @utu, @Hippopotamusdrome

    just a flu like any other and would take out only 5K, or else maybe just 10K, that this thing would fizzle out in the summer (Yeah, baby) because…humidity!!, that this thing would disappear from the news once the election was over because it’s only a conspiracy to unseat Trump, and that we were “almost at herd immunity”. One failed prediction after another.

    An anthology or taxonomy of all idiotic utterances should be compiled and their authors should be remembered.

  268. @Mike Tre
    @Reg Cæsar

    Yep, obese negro females have culturally appropriated the subtle art of wearing a dirty mask pulled down below their noses.

    Replies: @vhrm

    Yep,
    … the subtle art of wearing a dirty mask pulled down below their noses.

    have noticed that too disproportionately with some groups. Is it a style thing, like the sagging pants, or what?

  269. As for Black Death 2.0, put that into any search engine and tell me how many links come back telling you that you’ve just described coronavirus. Go ahead, do it and report back to us, but be forewarned, if the results make it clear that the only time Black Death and coronavirus were used in the same sentence was to create a strawman, then you’ve got no business calling other people nuts.

    Come on. That’s so laughable it’s pathetic.
    Search engines are not intelligent, they just give you data.

    For instance, the fact that the only American who has his own national holiday also happens to be a proven plagiarist, pro affirmative action socialist whoremonger does not mean that our ruling elite hates whitey.
    No, perish the thought. It could never happen. Not on my search engine. You must be a nazi hater/likewise your computer.

    IOW an ability to read between the lines and see the forest, in spite of the trees means one is capable of reasonable thought and a prerequisite to being an informed citizen/voter, if not human ‘bean’ as opposed to a potato head.

    For a start, a book report in your own words, 250 or less on the dictionary definition of “insinuate” submitted promptly to the Committee of Public Safety would go a long ways to clear your rep.

    As someone who has pretty much ignored the main scream media since long before “fake news” became fashionable, I “woke” up about the time the Diamond Princess made it into port.
    Only she wasn’t quite the derelict ghost ship with a couple of zombies wretching on deck and a veritable charnel house below that the ominous kettle drum back beat of the media seemed to be prepping us for.

    But then maybe I better start watching the hi-def flat screen more diligently, rather than merely tolerating it when I can’t put a brick through it.

    • Replies: @HA
    @MB

    "Search engines are not intelligent, they just give you data."

    I'd say the same thing about that statement, given that it shows no sign of intelligence either. What search engines -- and the data they provide -- can do is give you an indication as to who in living memory actually made the claim that coronavirus is like the Black Death.

    I can do that for AIDS.

    I can do that for Ebola.

    Tell me then, who seriously tries to compare coronavirus to the Black Death. Go ahead, I'll wait.

    Replies: @MB

  270. @Travis
    @Kyle

    The evidence is mounting that people can get re-infected with COVID. The antibodies quickly fade , as shown by all the antibody studies. Thankfully we also gain T-cell immunity which lasts longer, but may not prevent reinfection. Back in April over 30% of New Yorkers had the antibodies, this faded to 25% by June and 21% in September.

    The Pfizer study actually claims that the COVID infection rate was the same for those who already had COVID compared to those who had no previous coronavirus infection. "The placebo group attack rate from enrollment to the November 14, 2020, data cut-off date was 1.3% both for participants without evidence of prior infection at enrollment and for participants with evidence of prior infection at enrollment." While limited, these data do suggest that previously infected individuals can be at risk of COVID-19 (i.e., reinfection) From page 28 of the FDA briefing.

    Replies: @Redman

    Back in April over 30% of New Yorkers had the antibodies, this faded to 25% by June and 21% in September.

    It’s important to know who was being tested. Was this the random testing or people who reported as sick?

    I recently tested positive for the antibodies about 8 months after having Covid.

    • Replies: @HA
    @Redman

    "the masks actually increased the number of infected."

    That's not what the Dutch ultimately concluded (after months of pretending masks are unnecessary). That's not what the Germans concluded. It's also not what Hong Kong researchers discovered.

    Actually, come to think of it, even Fauci et al. admitted their earlier advice was just lies designed to avoid shortages of masks for health care workers. But just like anti-vaxxers, who never bother with research that overrules their prejudices, none of that matters to you, because you know science better than actual scientists.

    Steve, whether you agree or disagree with him, deserves a larger audience than the one he's been given. No sane person would ever say the same of you.

  271. @Achmed E. Newman
    @HA

    My point is, HA, that people like you are ACTING like this is the Black Death 2.0. Why would you want to forcibly lock people up (China's way) or force them to shut down businesses and wear silly face diapers, unless you were scared hysterical? The Black Plague would have scared the hell of all of us. This time, you, Mr. Unz, Mr. Sailer only to a slighter, more reasonable degree, and millions of others have let this Infotainment PanicFest get the better of you.

    I brought up Alan Alda, as he was the righteous lefty who new it all, and wanted to save everyone. That sounds like your "we could have done so much more!" BS from your comment, only you don't have any skills like a M*A*S*H* surgeon, but just speculation on the internet.

    Your 2 million dead(!) in a year did not happen. The masks aren't doing squat for anyone who is not very very vulnerable (people I'd personally stay away from out of courtesy, or wear a mask upon request for, as with my Mom). For the rest of us it's a joke. There is no proof in the numbers that the face masks have done anything to change the number of fatalities.

    Regarding the vaccine, I had no clue whether one could be created or not. I never wrote about that because I just didn't care that much. This wave will be over soon enough, vaccine or not. As I wrote up top, I'm not really averse to taking it, but I see no reason to be a guinea pig when I'm not worried about this disease much.

    HA, your savior complex doesn't impress me one bit. I'd rather see a free country again someday. That's what I'd like to be a little bit responsible for.

    Replies: @utu, @Travis, @HA

    the masks actually increased the number of infected. Fauci, the CDC, the WHO and the Surgeon General all agreed on this in March because this is what the science tells us. People are always adjusting their masks (myself included) when walking around, they end up touching their faces much more than when not wearing a mask. Most people wear the same filthy cloth mask each day , not properly washing them, thus wearing a filthy bacteria infested rag over their mouth everyday.

    Back in April when we knew less about COVID Steve had plenty of posts about the fatality rate and speculating on how many people had been infected based in the antibody testing, etc…Now we know the case fatality rate is much lower than 1% and probably below .4%. For the majority of Americans, those under the age of 50 , the fatality rate is around 1 in 1000, which is similar to the flu fatality rate. The CDC estimates that 100 million Americans have already recovered from COVID, which puts the fatality rate at under .3% for Americans.

    Back in April Steve posted charts about the benefits of flattening the curve. The reason was to reduce hospitalizations and the science predicted this would prolong the epidemic but not actually reduce fatalities. After the curve was flattened the justification for the lock-downs changed, without any debate about the long term damage this was doing to the well being of Americans. People over 60 certainly have reason to be concerned, but closing schools and businesses causes more harm than keeping them open.

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman
  272. @Dave
    @anonymous coward

    If I get HCQ, Zithro, and zinc (the Trump cocktail) within a few days of infection, I'll probably be fine. But the government might not let me have those drugs because they want people like me to suffer organ damage to justify their lockdowns. If I could legally buy those drugs ahead of time (they only cost a few dollars), I'd be much less worried about Covid.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief

    Try a walk around noontime and black and green tea, and red wine. Wear a mask etc. Should do. For those who still haven’t: Lose some weight. If you are under 80 without a lot of comorbidities, everything should turn out just like ever.

  273. @HA
    @Achmed E. Newman

    "My point is that there have been bugs before that have given higher excess deaths. Society didn’t go nuts those other times."

    Sure, and civilizations come and go and sometimes the immigrants wind up wiping out the prior inhabitants (or at least their menfolk). It's no big deal, really. Just sit back and enjoy it and stop clinging to your way of life so much. Or else, decide that, no, sitting back and taking it is not always the best strategy given that alternatives are not possible. But if you're going with the second route, like Steve has chosen to do, then do it consistently.

    And the only people going nuts right now are those apoplectic about the existence of a vaccine some of them were assuring us was impossible (hence the only alternative was to sit back and enjoy it), and how people are lining up to get a jab of ground up virus parts that will turn them into "dog-boy and pig-girl" even though according to people like you, those virus parts are no big deal even when they're an actual full-blown virus.

    The only people who have time and again been proven to be nuts are the ones who told us this was just a flu like any other and would take out only 5K, or else maybe just 10K, that this thing would fizzle out in the summer (Yeah, baby) because...humidity!!, that this thing would disappear from the news once the election was over because it's only a conspiracy to unseat Trump, and that we were "almost at herd immunity". One failed prediction after another. Stacked against that, a two million worst case scenario (for a "let-'er-rip strategy that no one went with) is not something anyone needs to apologize for given that we might make it to half a million even with all the precautions (however slipshod scattered) we did take.

    As for Black Death 2.0, put that into any search engine and tell me how many links come back telling you that you've just described coronavirus. Go ahead, do it and report back to us, but be forewarned, if the results make it clear that the only time Black Death and coronavirus were used in the same sentence was to create a strawman, then you've got no business calling other people nuts.

    And you're going to cite me Alan Alda from M*A*S*H? Really? You're telling me those TVLand reruns are still occupying real estate in your brain? Wow. That says a lot more about what's wrong with you than what's wrong with me.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @utu, @Hippopotamusdrome

    nuts are the ones who told us this was just a flu like any other

    It’s not a flu, it’s a coronavirus, which is the cold.

    would take out only 5K, or else maybe just 10

    Wern’t they right?

    would disappear from the news once the election was over

    That was optimistic. Corona is forever.

    • Replies: @HA
    @Hippopotamusdrome

    "It’s not a flu, it’s a coronavirus, which is the cold."

    See, Achmed? What'd I just finish saying about how the sit-back-and-enjoy-it faction allowed clowns to monopolize their presentation?

    And yet, they still expect to be taken seriously when, after enough goalpost shifting, they try to pretend that they were really just concerned about the costs all along, and hey, why is that so few people are willing to listen? It must be because everyone else went crazy. Yeah, sure, that must be it.

    In other words, thanks so much to both of you for proving my point. If I ever create a sock puppet, I'm going to use posts like yours as part of the training set.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

  274. @Achmed E. Newman
    @HA

    My point is, HA, that people like you are ACTING like this is the Black Death 2.0. Why would you want to forcibly lock people up (China's way) or force them to shut down businesses and wear silly face diapers, unless you were scared hysterical? The Black Plague would have scared the hell of all of us. This time, you, Mr. Unz, Mr. Sailer only to a slighter, more reasonable degree, and millions of others have let this Infotainment PanicFest get the better of you.

    I brought up Alan Alda, as he was the righteous lefty who new it all, and wanted to save everyone. That sounds like your "we could have done so much more!" BS from your comment, only you don't have any skills like a M*A*S*H* surgeon, but just speculation on the internet.

    Your 2 million dead(!) in a year did not happen. The masks aren't doing squat for anyone who is not very very vulnerable (people I'd personally stay away from out of courtesy, or wear a mask upon request for, as with my Mom). For the rest of us it's a joke. There is no proof in the numbers that the face masks have done anything to change the number of fatalities.

    Regarding the vaccine, I had no clue whether one could be created or not. I never wrote about that because I just didn't care that much. This wave will be over soon enough, vaccine or not. As I wrote up top, I'm not really averse to taking it, but I see no reason to be a guinea pig when I'm not worried about this disease much.

    HA, your savior complex doesn't impress me one bit. I'd rather see a free country again someday. That's what I'd like to be a little bit responsible for.

    Replies: @utu, @Travis, @HA

    “My point is, HA, that people like you are ACTING like this is the Black Death 2.0”

    No, somewhere in the low 7 figures is not the Black Death. Enough with the strawman already. Again, the people screaming that the end is near are the ones who think the ground up bits of this supposedly innocuous virus are somehow going to combine so as to transmogrify us into (and this is a direct quote) “dog-boy and pig-girl”. And you dare lecture me on panicking? Get over yourself.

    That’s about as hypocritical as guy whoWhite-Knights for Mr. “facediapers”, and then has the gall to accuse me of trying to shame people into compliance. Pot, meet kettle.

    If you’d have been honest enough to admit from the start that this may indeed be far worse than any flu we’ve seen in decades, but note that despite that, we still have to worry about the costs, then even those who disagreed with you would probably be muttering to themselves under their breath how you might well be right. Instead, you got sidetracked with idiotic grasping at straws about how it’s just the flu, and how less than 10,000 will die, and how being asked to mask up in a pandemic (and getting hostile stares for refusing) is somehow the “greatest seizure of individual liberties ever perpetrated on the American people, and how this was bound to disappear in summer, or else come the election (because something that Chinese, and Iranians, and Israelis, and Italians, and Chechens, and Russians all agree on HAS to be a conspiracy against Trump), or that we were almost at herd immunity, or that calling people “diaperface” and “chemo-tard” is a worthwhile addition to the discussion, or that anti-vaxxers and militia loons are worthy allies. You allowed clowns like that to sidetrack what could have been a genuine (albeit brutal) argument. Now, some of you want to pretend that fiscal responsibility was your point all along? Sorry, if that were true, you wouldn’t have let the freaks to monopolize the discussion.

    I’m not Fauci’s biggest fan by any stretch, and I worry plenty about what the response is going to do to us. But if you’re the alternative, then I’ll stick with what I got. Fix your own house before pointing out the cracks in mine.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @HA


    Instead, you got sidetracked with idiotic grasping at straws about how it’s just the flu, and less than 10,000 will die,
     
    Says, HA. Quit misquoting me, asshole.

    I didn't give that number. I didn't say nobody should take the vaccine. I had nothing much to say about that other than I don't care that awful much. I didn't say this is a conspiracy (I'm not Ron Unz, you know), as I think this PanicFest was USED against Donald Trump*. Steve Sailer has done very good work showing that one, BTW regarding the vaccine trials. I don't think Bill Gates is an evil man, just another save-the-world idiot, like yourself, but with 10,000 times the assets. One of his fuck-ups was saving the African population so it could grow to 4,000,000,000 and settle the world uninvited.

    You've got all the people who don't agree with you rolled up into your comments here to me. I do agree with most of the anti-Panickers, of course. Your links didn't go to me, so I can't tell what you're on about with some of it. (Yes, if Je Suis Omar Martin came up with the term "face diapers" himself, he does deserve kudos from me, if that's what you mean.)

    How about just quit ACTING like this is the Black Plague 2.0? I didn't say that YOU said that, I said you are ACTING like it.

    It's a bad year of contagion. Things like this have been seen by Americans before who were not hysterical pussies at the time. Why is it different this time, HA? You tell me.

    .


    * Along with more important things, that is. "somehow the “greatest seizure of individual liberties ever perpetrated on the American people, " Not the greatest, just more. What'd you say when Motherland Security and the TSA were created? "Oh, that's not the greatest seizure..." How much is enough, when you are kept in a cage? Who are you going to call then, HA?

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    , @BenKenobi
    @HA

    LOL you're so mad.

  275. @MB

    As for Black Death 2.0, put that into any search engine and tell me how many links come back telling you that you’ve just described coronavirus. Go ahead, do it and report back to us, but be forewarned, if the results make it clear that the only time Black Death and coronavirus were used in the same sentence was to create a strawman, then you’ve got no business calling other people nuts.
     
    Come on. That's so laughable it's pathetic.
    Search engines are not intelligent, they just give you data.

    For instance, the fact that the only American who has his own national holiday also happens to be a proven plagiarist, pro affirmative action socialist whoremonger does not mean that our ruling elite hates whitey.
    No, perish the thought. It could never happen. Not on my search engine. You must be a nazi hater/likewise your computer.

    IOW an ability to read between the lines and see the forest, in spite of the trees means one is capable of reasonable thought and a prerequisite to being an informed citizen/voter, if not human 'bean' as opposed to a potato head.

    For a start, a book report in your own words, 250 or less on the dictionary definition of "insinuate" submitted promptly to the Committee of Public Safety would go a long ways to clear your rep.

    As someone who has pretty much ignored the main scream media since long before "fake news" became fashionable, I "woke" up about the time the Diamond Princess made it into port.
    Only she wasn't quite the derelict ghost ship with a couple of zombies wretching on deck and a veritable charnel house below that the ominous kettle drum back beat of the media seemed to be prepping us for.

    But then maybe I better start watching the hi-def flat screen more diligently, rather than merely tolerating it when I can't put a brick through it.

    Replies: @HA

    “Search engines are not intelligent, they just give you data.”

    I’d say the same thing about that statement, given that it shows no sign of intelligence either. What search engines — and the data they provide — can do is give you an indication as to who in living memory actually made the claim that coronavirus is like the Black Death.

    I can do that for AIDS.

    I can do that for Ebola.

    Tell me then, who seriously tries to compare coronavirus to the Black Death. Go ahead, I’ll wait.

    • Replies: @MB
    @HA

    Huh? Maybe nobody has literally compared the corona virus to the black plague, but that's essentially immaterial in that that was not asserted.

    Rather some of us remember without resorting to google, the predictions from King's College and IHME/Uof W. QED. This has been a panic pandemic from the start with the media and politicians equally guilty of rampant fearmongering and BS. The virus is a nasty respiratory bug, but it's not anything like what was claimed/predicted for it with the Diamond Princess and USS Roosevelt aircraft carrier being cases in point.

    IOW its no different than the scare mongering over terrorism, climate change etc. with the usual Chicken Littles crying wolf and blowing things way out of proportion.

    After all, some of us actually survived the '58 asian flu and the '68 hong kong flu with nowhere near the hysteria that surrounds this fiasco. Even the CDC admitted a while back that only 6% actually died from the virus. Everyone else had at least 2.6 co-morbidities.

    cheers

  276. @HA
    @Achmed E. Newman

    "My point is, HA, that people like you are ACTING like this is the Black Death 2.0"

    No, somewhere in the low 7 figures is not the Black Death. Enough with the strawman already. Again, the people screaming that the end is near are the ones who think the ground up bits of this supposedly innocuous virus are somehow going to combine so as to transmogrify us into (and this is a direct quote) "dog-boy and pig-girl". And you dare lecture me on panicking? Get over yourself.

    That's about as hypocritical as guy whoWhite-Knights for Mr. "facediapers", and then has the gall to accuse me of trying to shame people into compliance. Pot, meet kettle.

    If you'd have been honest enough to admit from the start that this may indeed be far worse than any flu we've seen in decades, but note that despite that, we still have to worry about the costs, then even those who disagreed with you would probably be muttering to themselves under their breath how you might well be right. Instead, you got sidetracked with idiotic grasping at straws about how it's just the flu, and how less than 10,000 will die, and how being asked to mask up in a pandemic (and getting hostile stares for refusing) is somehow the "greatest seizure of individual liberties ever perpetrated on the American people, and how this was bound to disappear in summer, or else come the election (because something that Chinese, and Iranians, and Israelis, and Italians, and Chechens, and Russians all agree on HAS to be a conspiracy against Trump), or that we were almost at herd immunity, or that calling people "diaperface" and "chemo-tard" is a worthwhile addition to the discussion, or that anti-vaxxers and militia loons are worthy allies. You allowed clowns like that to sidetrack what could have been a genuine (albeit brutal) argument. Now, some of you want to pretend that fiscal responsibility was your point all along? Sorry, if that were true, you wouldn't have let the freaks to monopolize the discussion.

    I'm not Fauci's biggest fan by any stretch, and I worry plenty about what the response is going to do to us. But if you're the alternative, then I'll stick with what I got. Fix your own house before pointing out the cracks in mine.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @BenKenobi

    Instead, you got sidetracked with idiotic grasping at straws about how it’s just the flu, and less than 10,000 will die,

    Says, HA. Quit misquoting me, asshole.

    I didn’t give that number. I didn’t say nobody should take the vaccine. I had nothing much to say about that other than I don’t care that awful much. I didn’t say this is a conspiracy (I’m not Ron Unz, you know), as I think this PanicFest was USED against Donald Trump*. Steve Sailer has done very good work showing that one, BTW regarding the vaccine trials. I don’t think Bill Gates is an evil man, just another save-the-world idiot, like yourself, but with 10,000 times the assets. One of his fuck-ups was saving the African population so it could grow to 4,000,000,000 and settle the world uninvited.

    You’ve got all the people who don’t agree with you rolled up into your comments here to me. I do agree with most of the anti-Panickers, of course. Your links didn’t go to me, so I can’t tell what you’re on about with some of it. (Yes, if Je Suis Omar Martin came up with the term “face diapers” himself, he does deserve kudos from me, if that’s what you mean.)

    How about just quit ACTING like this is the Black Plague 2.0? I didn’t say that YOU said that, I said you are ACTING like it.

    It’s a bad year of contagion. Things like this have been seen by Americans before who were not hysterical pussies at the time. Why is it different this time, HA? You tell me.

    .

    * Along with more important things, that is. “somehow the “greatest seizure of individual liberties ever perpetrated on the American people, ” Not the greatest, just more. What’d you say when Motherland Security and the TSA were created? “Oh, that’s not the greatest seizure…” How much is enough, when you are kept in a cage? Who are you going to call then, HA?

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Big mistake in this comment.

    WAS: "10,000 times the assets"
    S/B: "1,000,000 times the assets"

    I know how much Bill Gates has (on the books). I just mistook you for a millionaire.

  277. perhaps with Steve’s earlier health issues in life that might justifiably make him a bit more nervous

    I would like to see this for each State. NYC by itself is half the country’s total. Also, we need to just trust the government’s reported numbers, just like we need to trust the reported vote numbers. They wouldn’t fudge numbers, would they?

    I would like to put a little red arrow where mask mandates came in. Biden told us one or two months 100 days of masks would eradicate the virus.

  278. @Hippopotamusdrome
    @HA



    nuts are the ones who told us this was just a flu like any other

     

    It's not a flu, it's a coronavirus, which is the cold.


    would take out only 5K, or else maybe just 10

     

    Wern't they right?


    would disappear from the news once the election was over

     

    That was optimistic. Corona is forever.

    Replies: @HA

    “It’s not a flu, it’s a coronavirus, which is the cold.”

    See, Achmed? What’d I just finish saying about how the sit-back-and-enjoy-it faction allowed clowns to monopolize their presentation?

    And yet, they still expect to be taken seriously when, after enough goalpost shifting, they try to pretend that they were really just concerned about the costs all along, and hey, why is that so few people are willing to listen? It must be because everyone else went crazy. Yeah, sure, that must be it.

    In other words, thanks so much to both of you for proving my point. If I ever create a sock puppet, I’m going to use posts like yours as part of the training set.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @HA

    Mi nombre ees Achmed, Senor. I don't speak for everyone on here. I usually agree with Hippo. In this case, I have no idea what this virus resembles. I am not a molecular biologist or virologist, more specifically.

    You can publish all my posts. Just don't mis-attribute everything you want to me, as you did before. You may want to link to the whole category of Healthcare Stupidity* on Peak Stupidity where, over the last 8 months, the posts with that topic key are mostly Kung Flu related. Thx in advance, senor.

    .

    * Tell the readers to scroll down a bit.

    Replies: @HA

  279. @PiltdownMan
    @Anonymous

    I knew three people who died of Covid-19. One was a relative by marriage, in his early 60s, another, a college friend about the same age, and the third, a 93 year old father of another college buddy. All were well, and had no medical issues or chronic conditions prior to their illness.

    Replies: @Buck Ransom, @Old Prude, @Hippopotamusdrome

    You do know entering a hospital for any reason you automatically get tested, and if poz and if you subsequently die for any reason they write it up Covid and get paid an extra 20% from the CARES Act?

    Do you happen to know if it was a PCR test, and if so, do you know the number of cycles they used?

  280. I work for a company that has around 150,000 seniors in its customer base. Before the pandemic, we would lose 300-400 a month due to death. Since March of 2020 our deaths have consistently been 75% of what they were pre-COVID. Every month and in aggregate. There might be extra COVID deaths, but keeping seniors off the road and off the operating table for elective surgeries is more than offsetting them. No way there are surplus deaths.

    • Thanks: vhrm
    • Replies: @vhrm
    @DN Oldworld

    V interesting and I admit I'm surprised. Are they "young" seniors or otherwise relevantly uncharacteristic?

    Replies: @DN Oldworld

  281. @dataBro
    @Anonymous

    Dunbar's number is 150. You know 150 people, that you can plausibly keep track of give or take. Covid has killed 1 out of 1000 people in the US. Most folks don't know anyone who died. Once we get to 1 in 300, 50% of people will have someone in their network who has died. It's worse than that though, most peoples 150 is not random, so how many actually over 70 folks are in your network. If you are young not too many.

    The numbers don't lie, my wife is a nurse, hospital is full, people are dying, I only know friends of friends who've died. But the CDC is not making this shit up. Maybe you have a someone in your network who works at a hospital? Ask them.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Hippopotamusdrome

    my wife is a nurse, hospital is full

    Wat?

  282. @AnotherDad
    @Ron Unz

    Striking thing here:

    The Diamond Princess gave us the first complete/closed data set, we've had and a really good box on the severity of this thing.
    -- not "just the flu"
    -- 10--50x normal flu
    -- likely 0.2-0.7 IFR for American aged demographic profile
    -- probably would kill 1-1.5 million Americans if every single person was exposed
    -- but probably 600k-1m and you'd start wobbling toward "herd immunity"; everyone would else would eventually get exposed but over the next decade as with the flu antigen shifts
    -- most critically, a geezer killer; quality of life years lost are small

    As i've noted, i was really worried about this back in January, AnotherMom and I kicked around tossing a foreign trip we had booked for the family. But once the Diamond Princess came back, i was relieved. My kids--future generations growing up--were gong to be fine. Unpleasant, but no threat to civilization, simply a lot of people--almost all old and/or ill health--were going to die a bit early. Some who would have gone in the last couple low-flu years, most borrowed from the next five years' or so deaths.

    Nothing has changed that picture. Confess i didn't expect the summer wave. I thought the first wave would die out with summer--end of flu season--then would get going big again in fall with traditional flu season. AnotherMom thinks summer AC--people more indoors--in the South had something to do with it. Mostly south--people less indoors--didn't get hit as hard in first wave.

    But other than that, anyone could write a road map out of the Diamond Princess data and we've more or less driven right on down it.

    But ... doesn't matter. All sorts of nonsense from the "just the flu bros" whining about wearing a mask to the store (BFD), to the hysterics screaming about the apocalypse, pushing lockdowns (and wanting to kill Swedes for their heresy). We're going to lose way more years of life in unconceived, unborn children than the Xi virus will take.

    One thing i have 100% confidence in: The Xi virus isn't what's killing America.

    America is being killed by minoritarianism. By mass immigration and by low/dysgenic fertility. Xi virus is a speed bump.

    Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome

    Re: Diamond Princess

    2,666 [LOL] passengers

    14 people, all of them passengers, died

    the median age of the passengers was 69

    passengers were 55% female

    14 ÷ 2,666 = 0.5% died (allegedly)

    Deaths of men: 10, average age 77.3
    Deaths of women: 3, average age 74.6
    Deaths of sex undetermined: 1, average age ??

    Period Life Table: 69yrs death probability: 1.75%
    Therefore, a population of 2,666 69 year olds naturally will have 7.8 die in any 2 month period under normal circumstances.

    The 14 that did die represents 6 excess deaths, or 0.2% in a population of 69 year olds.

    Not including of course possible deaths from the physical hardships of the quarantine (bet you didn’t take a 2 month supply of pills on your 2 week cruise) and psychological stress from being told you are in a real life pandemic movie.

    PS
    Only 3/14 entries give a precise age. 8/14 entries give a 60s 70s or 80s. 3/14 entries give just a –. Their identities are State secrets or something.

  283. @pyrrhus
    Funny, Social Security recipient data doesn't show these increases in deaths, Market Ticker has analyzed this, yet the vast majority of people dying from Covid are over 70...I smell a rat...
    And we personally know 20+ people who have had actual Covid cases, and none of them were even hospitalized, while most had very light symptoms...

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @huwhyte ppl, @Achmed E. Newman, @Hippopotamusdrome

    Hey, now. Just because someone is cashing the checks doesn’t neccesarily mean they didn’t die…

  284. @HA
    @Hippopotamusdrome

    "It’s not a flu, it’s a coronavirus, which is the cold."

    See, Achmed? What'd I just finish saying about how the sit-back-and-enjoy-it faction allowed clowns to monopolize their presentation?

    And yet, they still expect to be taken seriously when, after enough goalpost shifting, they try to pretend that they were really just concerned about the costs all along, and hey, why is that so few people are willing to listen? It must be because everyone else went crazy. Yeah, sure, that must be it.

    In other words, thanks so much to both of you for proving my point. If I ever create a sock puppet, I'm going to use posts like yours as part of the training set.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    Mi nombre ees Achmed, Senor. I don’t speak for everyone on here. I usually agree with Hippo. In this case, I have no idea what this virus resembles. I am not a molecular biologist or virologist, more specifically.

    You can publish all my posts. Just don’t mis-attribute everything you want to me, as you did before. You may want to link to the whole category of Healthcare Stupidity* on Peak Stupidity where, over the last 8 months, the posts with that topic key are mostly Kung Flu related. Thx in advance, senor.

    .

    * Tell the readers to scroll down a bit.

    • Replies: @HA
    @Achmed E. Newman

    "Mi nombre ees Achmed, "

    I know who you are all too well. You're the guy whose only apparent purpose in life is commenting on Steve's blog (so it's no wonder you don't much care for other people's lives either). In any case, I was using "you" to refer to all the people you yourself just admitted you agreed with. I was using "you" to refer to all the corona-truthers who have racked up one bungled prediction after another and still manage to come around here spewing even more evidence-free assertions and complaining that Steve hasn't lived up to your standards -- and you're definitely one of those, too. That's two for two, no confusion whatsoever. So before you come to me expecting apologies, work on fixing your own Black Death strawmanning if misattribution bothers you so much. Asking anyone "why are you acting like this is the Black Death?" is like asking him when he stopped beating his dog.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

  285. @HA
    @Achmed E. Newman

    "My point is, HA, that people like you are ACTING like this is the Black Death 2.0"

    No, somewhere in the low 7 figures is not the Black Death. Enough with the strawman already. Again, the people screaming that the end is near are the ones who think the ground up bits of this supposedly innocuous virus are somehow going to combine so as to transmogrify us into (and this is a direct quote) "dog-boy and pig-girl". And you dare lecture me on panicking? Get over yourself.

    That's about as hypocritical as guy whoWhite-Knights for Mr. "facediapers", and then has the gall to accuse me of trying to shame people into compliance. Pot, meet kettle.

    If you'd have been honest enough to admit from the start that this may indeed be far worse than any flu we've seen in decades, but note that despite that, we still have to worry about the costs, then even those who disagreed with you would probably be muttering to themselves under their breath how you might well be right. Instead, you got sidetracked with idiotic grasping at straws about how it's just the flu, and how less than 10,000 will die, and how being asked to mask up in a pandemic (and getting hostile stares for refusing) is somehow the "greatest seizure of individual liberties ever perpetrated on the American people, and how this was bound to disappear in summer, or else come the election (because something that Chinese, and Iranians, and Israelis, and Italians, and Chechens, and Russians all agree on HAS to be a conspiracy against Trump), or that we were almost at herd immunity, or that calling people "diaperface" and "chemo-tard" is a worthwhile addition to the discussion, or that anti-vaxxers and militia loons are worthy allies. You allowed clowns like that to sidetrack what could have been a genuine (albeit brutal) argument. Now, some of you want to pretend that fiscal responsibility was your point all along? Sorry, if that were true, you wouldn't have let the freaks to monopolize the discussion.

    I'm not Fauci's biggest fan by any stretch, and I worry plenty about what the response is going to do to us. But if you're the alternative, then I'll stick with what I got. Fix your own house before pointing out the cracks in mine.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @BenKenobi

    LOL you’re so mad.

  286. @Anon87
    @Achmed E. Newman

    When the elites disappear into their bunkers, panic rooms, pedo islands, etc. is when I might start to think this is serious (for those under 80). By all of their behavior we can be pretty sure this is a bad virus, but nothing to really worry about.

    Makes me wonder, is someone making sure Clint Eastwood is ok and not around anyone close to being infected? That would be a real capper to 2020.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Hippopotamusdrome

    “Go ahead, Kung Flu, make my day.”

  287. The numbers of COVID cases and deaths are WILDLY inflated by the Leftist power structure. Hospitals are given actual financial bounties for the numbers of COVID cases and deaths they can come up with. Hence all of the cancer, cardiac, accidental deaths redefined as COVID deaths. It’s all a manufactured crisis by the Left to establish control over people and to destroy the economy. The Left always ramps up as much hysteria as possible so they have something to point and shriek about.
    You CANNOT rely on those COVID numbers as if they actually mean anything. C’mon Steve.

  288. @Anon87
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    I tend to agree with you, but perhaps with Steve's earlier health issues in life that might justifiably make him a bit more nervous on the topic? But him dropping those sedentary induced lbs a bit ago was probably a good idea.

    And also, who do you ever agree with 100% of the time? For example Pat Buchanan usually is always on point, but I don't agree with his take on Hebdo cartoons. And that's ok. It's easy to skip Steve's covid related articles if you want, kind of like I do when he has a super detailed golf course architecture post. Sorry Steve!

    Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country, @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Agreed that Steve might be particularly vulnerable to Covid, but that doesn’t excuse his inability to analyze the data, which is kind of Steve’s thing.

    If this is just too personal for him, he should say so and step back.

    Regarding not agreeing with someone 100% of the time, I also agree. However, there are times and issues that matter more than others. This is one of those times, and this is one of those issues.

    As I said, Steve is one of the greats. We all owe him our thanks – and money which I send him every month – but his writing on this subject – a hugely important subject – deserves criticism.

  289. @Anon87
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    I tend to agree with you, but perhaps with Steve's earlier health issues in life that might justifiably make him a bit more nervous on the topic? But him dropping those sedentary induced lbs a bit ago was probably a good idea.

    And also, who do you ever agree with 100% of the time? For example Pat Buchanan usually is always on point, but I don't agree with his take on Hebdo cartoons. And that's ok. It's easy to skip Steve's covid related articles if you want, kind of like I do when he has a super detailed golf course architecture post. Sorry Steve!

    Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country, @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Agreed that Steve might be particularly vulnerable to Covid, but that doesn’t excuse his inability to analyze the data, which is kind of Steve’s thing.

    If this is just too personal for him, he should say so and step back.

    Regarding not agreeing with someone 100% of the time, I also agree. However, there are times and issues that matter more than others. This is one of those times, and this is one of those issues.

    As I said, Steve is one of the greats. We all owe him our thanks – and money which I send him every month – but his writing on this subject – a hugely important subject – deserves criticism.

  290. @Anon87
    @Achmed E. Newman

    When the elites disappear into their bunkers, panic rooms, pedo islands, etc. is when I might start to think this is serious (for those under 80). By all of their behavior we can be pretty sure this is a bad virus, but nothing to really worry about.

    Makes me wonder, is someone making sure Clint Eastwood is ok and not around anyone close to being infected? That would be a real capper to 2020.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Hippopotamusdrome

    When the elites disappear into their bunkers, panic rooms, pedo islands, etc. is when I might start to think this is serious

    Masque[less] of the Red Death:
    Newsom at maskless party

  291. @Redman
    @Travis


    Back in April over 30% of New Yorkers had the antibodies, this faded to 25% by June and 21% in September.
     
    It's important to know who was being tested. Was this the random testing or people who reported as sick?

    I recently tested positive for the antibodies about 8 months after having Covid.

    Replies: @HA

    “the masks actually increased the number of infected.”

    That’s not what the Dutch ultimately concluded (after months of pretending masks are unnecessary). That’s not what the Germans concluded. It’s also not what Hong Kong researchers discovered.

    Actually, come to think of it, even Fauci et al. admitted their earlier advice was just lies designed to avoid shortages of masks for health care workers. But just like anti-vaxxers, who never bother with research that overrules their prejudices, none of that matters to you, because you know science better than actual scientists.

    Steve, whether you agree or disagree with him, deserves a larger audience than the one he’s been given. No sane person would ever say the same of you.

  292. @HA
    @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    "Excess deaths in NJ were below zero after May, yet the lockdowns continued…"

    Ah yes, the old Fox Butterfield fallacy, as in "why are we still locking people up in prison even though crime rates have come down?"

    We get it. When death rates go up, it means lockdowns are ineffective. When they go down, it means lockdowns are no longer needed. I could almost go for it were it not for the fact that there's all this research showing a new, highly contagious respiratory disease floating around. They've sequenced it, and modeled it, and despite empty promises that this thing would fizzle out in summer, or that we were "almost at herd immunity", it stubbornly keeps hanging around -- just the way the experts said it would -- to the point where it's getting really hard to take seriously the loons who want to pretend we should just ignore it or shrug it off.

    Replies: @Travis, @Travis

    the purpose of the lockdowns , which began here in NJ began mid March, was to flatten the curve prevent the hospitals from being overwhelmed. They should have ended in May when the hospitals were well below capacity. Yet the lockdowns continued thru the summer, the majority of the schools did not open until October. Our school district did not open the schools until November. My wife is a teacher in Plainfield and they have remained closed and will stay closed until February. This is insanity. The lockdowns failed, yet they remain in-effect.

    The Lockdowns here little to no effect on the spread of COVID. Hospitalizations peaked 4 weeks after the lockdowns, 4 weeks after all the schools were closed and 3 weeks after masks were mandated by the governor. In reality most schools were shuttered a week before the Governor mandated all schools to be closed. Rutgers, Princeton and all the other big colleges were closed by March 9th. All the stores required masks by March 15th. Yet hospitalizations peaked April 17th and deaths peaked April 19th. There is no evidence that the lockdowns worked. The virus ran rampant thru the population quickly despite the lockdowns and mandated mask wearing imposed by our Governor.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Travis

    AGREED.

    , @Wielgus
    @Travis

    My experience too. I feel I'm living in a gigantic Milgram experiment.

  293. @HA
    @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    "Excess deaths in NJ were below zero after May, yet the lockdowns continued…"

    Ah yes, the old Fox Butterfield fallacy, as in "why are we still locking people up in prison even though crime rates have come down?"

    We get it. When death rates go up, it means lockdowns are ineffective. When they go down, it means lockdowns are no longer needed. I could almost go for it were it not for the fact that there's all this research showing a new, highly contagious respiratory disease floating around. They've sequenced it, and modeled it, and despite empty promises that this thing would fizzle out in summer, or that we were "almost at herd immunity", it stubbornly keeps hanging around -- just the way the experts said it would -- to the point where it's getting really hard to take seriously the loons who want to pretend we should just ignore it or shrug it off.

    Replies: @Travis, @Travis

    the purpose of the lockdowns , which began here in NJ began mid March, was to flatten the curve prevent the hospitals from being overwhelmed. They should have ended in May when the hospitals were well below capacity. Yet the lockdowns continued thru the summer, the majority of the schools did not open until October. Our school district did not open the schools until November. My wife is a teacher in Plainfield and they have remained closed and will stay closed until February. This is insanity. The lockdowns failed, yet they remain in-effect.

    The Lockdowns here little to no effect on the spread of COVID. Hospitalizations peaked 4 weeks after the lockdowns, 4 weeks after all the schools were closed and 3 weeks after masks were mandated by the governor. In reality most schools were shuttered a week before the Governor mandated all schools to be closed. Rutgers, Princeton and all the other big colleges were closed by March 9th. All the stores required masks by March 15th. Yet hospitalizations peaked April 17th and deaths peaked April 19th. There is no evidence that the lockdowns worked. The virus ran rampant thru the population quickly despite the lockdowns and mandated mask wearing imposed by our Governor.

    • Replies: @vhrm
    @Travis

    Preach it brother!

    The view from "Northern California" is similar in that work from home, schools closed, masks and distancing in stores and no indoor dining have been in effect straight through since March. ( except for a brief period of indoor dining last month or two in some counties for some restaurants I guess? idk how French Laundry was open. In the casual/fast food/ ethnic tier I'm familiar with my area is takeout only with a few having some outdoor dining (and as many being closed or out of business))

    Covid levels were super low all along except for some vibrant communities until flu season started and now it's actually climbing exponentially. (only state to do so currently afaict).

    Based on the mechanics of the virus spread I assume that the masks and closures have had some positive impact, but you won't see any impact on the graphs when they went into effect nor did they prevent the current outbreak. The most reasonable conclusion is that things other than the mandates are controlling.

    My guess is that many people, especially not aged and not white collar types, just haven't been paying much attention to the isolation guidance all along... and flu season conditions have raised R for this virus as they do for other respiratory viruses.

    Fortunately, except for California, it looks like daily new cases is shrinking or at least stable. I'm hopeful that we're already turning the corner.

    http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=states&highlight=California&show=25&y=fixed&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=right-4wk#states

  294. @Achmed E. Newman
    @HA


    Instead, you got sidetracked with idiotic grasping at straws about how it’s just the flu, and less than 10,000 will die,
     
    Says, HA. Quit misquoting me, asshole.

    I didn't give that number. I didn't say nobody should take the vaccine. I had nothing much to say about that other than I don't care that awful much. I didn't say this is a conspiracy (I'm not Ron Unz, you know), as I think this PanicFest was USED against Donald Trump*. Steve Sailer has done very good work showing that one, BTW regarding the vaccine trials. I don't think Bill Gates is an evil man, just another save-the-world idiot, like yourself, but with 10,000 times the assets. One of his fuck-ups was saving the African population so it could grow to 4,000,000,000 and settle the world uninvited.

    You've got all the people who don't agree with you rolled up into your comments here to me. I do agree with most of the anti-Panickers, of course. Your links didn't go to me, so I can't tell what you're on about with some of it. (Yes, if Je Suis Omar Martin came up with the term "face diapers" himself, he does deserve kudos from me, if that's what you mean.)

    How about just quit ACTING like this is the Black Plague 2.0? I didn't say that YOU said that, I said you are ACTING like it.

    It's a bad year of contagion. Things like this have been seen by Americans before who were not hysterical pussies at the time. Why is it different this time, HA? You tell me.

    .


    * Along with more important things, that is. "somehow the “greatest seizure of individual liberties ever perpetrated on the American people, " Not the greatest, just more. What'd you say when Motherland Security and the TSA were created? "Oh, that's not the greatest seizure..." How much is enough, when you are kept in a cage? Who are you going to call then, HA?

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    Big mistake in this comment.

    WAS: “10,000 times the assets”
    S/B: “1,000,000 times the assets”

    I know how much Bill Gates has (on the books). I just mistook you for a millionaire.

  295. @Travis
    @HA

    the purpose of the lockdowns , which began here in NJ began mid March, was to flatten the curve prevent the hospitals from being overwhelmed. They should have ended in May when the hospitals were well below capacity. Yet the lockdowns continued thru the summer, the majority of the schools did not open until October. Our school district did not open the schools until November. My wife is a teacher in Plainfield and they have remained closed and will stay closed until February. This is insanity. The lockdowns failed, yet they remain in-effect.

    The Lockdowns here little to no effect on the spread of COVID. Hospitalizations peaked 4 weeks after the lockdowns, 4 weeks after all the schools were closed and 3 weeks after masks were mandated by the governor. In reality most schools were shuttered a week before the Governor mandated all schools to be closed. Rutgers, Princeton and all the other big colleges were closed by March 9th. All the stores required masks by March 15th. Yet hospitalizations peaked April 17th and deaths peaked April 19th. There is no evidence that the lockdowns worked. The virus ran rampant thru the population quickly despite the lockdowns and mandated mask wearing imposed by our Governor.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Wielgus

    AGREED.

  296. @Achmed E. Newman
    @HA

    Mi nombre ees Achmed, Senor. I don't speak for everyone on here. I usually agree with Hippo. In this case, I have no idea what this virus resembles. I am not a molecular biologist or virologist, more specifically.

    You can publish all my posts. Just don't mis-attribute everything you want to me, as you did before. You may want to link to the whole category of Healthcare Stupidity* on Peak Stupidity where, over the last 8 months, the posts with that topic key are mostly Kung Flu related. Thx in advance, senor.

    .

    * Tell the readers to scroll down a bit.

    Replies: @HA

    “Mi nombre ees Achmed, “

    I know who you are all too well. You’re the guy whose only apparent purpose in life is commenting on Steve’s blog (so it’s no wonder you don’t much care for other people’s lives either). In any case, I was using “you” to refer to all the people you yourself just admitted you agreed with. I was using “you” to refer to all the corona-truthers who have racked up one bungled prediction after another and still manage to come around here spewing even more evidence-free assertions and complaining that Steve hasn’t lived up to your standards — and you’re definitely one of those, too. That’s two for two, no confusion whatsoever. So before you come to me expecting apologies, work on fixing your own Black Death strawmanning if misattribution bothers you so much. Asking anyone “why are you acting like this is the Black Death?” is like asking him when he stopped beating his dog.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @HA

    HA, I write my own blog and have a real job and a family. I've enjoyed commenting on unz (iSteve in particular). What you could do is not assume you are just so much a savior of the world and in the right on this issue. I agree with Steve Sailer on 95% of the stuff he writes. I like the guy. However, if I think he doesn't understand how big a problem this PanicFest is to small business, the American economy in general, and above all, what's left of the freedom of American, I'm gonna bring it up.

    I noted that you replied to me first, not vice-versa. You just wrote that you now see my writing as the amalgamation of all things anti-panic, and based on whom I agree with on comments, The act of mashing [Agree] does not mean I agree with every detail. Note, I don't hold you to comments from every single Kung Flu hysteric, just what YOU wrote. Do you say this virus was created in the US to send to China to be spread by a sports team in Wuhan? Well, Ron Unz says that, and he's also pro-panic. Why do you think this virus would be purposely spread in China, without anyone thinking that this might cause an epidemic here too? Answer me - you're one of the panickers, so that's you, right?

    I"ll just answer for myself, not every detail from everyone else who sees problems with this PanicFest. This COVID-19 epidemic is no worse than a number of bad flu years we've had. We know which people are vulnerable, and we should act accordingly. YOU PEOPLE, that is, the Kung Flu Panickers, have been so far wrong in your predictions, that I see I've been vindicated in not believing your hysteria.

  297. @hhsiii
    @Redman

    I've been taking the subway on relatively short jaunts. Not to go to work but once a week or so. Midtown is indeed dead but parts of the City have stuff open, mostly bars, restaurants, some shops, Citarella's, etc. Yeah, I'm gettin' on that train like Christopher Walken playing Russian Roulette in Deerhunter all the time. :)

    Speaking of shops, I just went to Phoebe Cates' place on Madison and 91st to pick up some xmas trinkets. Overpriced but worth it to get a glimpse of Miss Fast Times her own self. She's charming. I do it every xmas.

    Her ancestral name is Katz, btw. 3/4s MOT, 1/4 asian. Didn't turn out bad, eh? A PS 6 grad.

    Replies: @Wielgus

    She certainly appears so in TV interviews.

  298. Dear Steve,

    I shared this blog entry with a friend and this is what he replied with.

    “Thanks, but I’ve been looking at the CDC’s page for much of the past week and have come to the conclusion that the CDC’s data is not to be trusted. They don’t trust their own sources of data (over 50 of them), and so they add another layer of uncertainty with opaque algorithmic calculations that render the published product incomprehensible.

    “And just look at the blue-barred chart you see everywhere. Nowhere on that interactive chart does it tell you how many deaths were actually reported. If you go to the backup data, you find a number identified as “Observed,” but that number isn’t on the chart and doesn’t add up to the CDC’s official totals for past years (which don’t include 2019, since they didn’t finish their 2019 calculations before the covid storm hit). And if you put your pointer on that orange line (the supposed “threshold” of excess death), it doesn’t give you a number on the line but a number somewhere below the line.

    “Sweden’s data is much more straightforward. No algorithms needed. Not much excess death in Sweden, but then they didn’t make all the mistakes we did here.”

    “ ‘It is incumbent on the lover of truth, by all means, and if death be threatened, even before his own life, to choose to do and say what is right.’ ”
    St. Justin the Martyr and Philosopher

  299. @Travis
    @HA

    the purpose of the lockdowns , which began here in NJ began mid March, was to flatten the curve prevent the hospitals from being overwhelmed. They should have ended in May when the hospitals were well below capacity. Yet the lockdowns continued thru the summer, the majority of the schools did not open until October. Our school district did not open the schools until November. My wife is a teacher in Plainfield and they have remained closed and will stay closed until February. This is insanity. The lockdowns failed, yet they remain in-effect.

    The Lockdowns here little to no effect on the spread of COVID. Hospitalizations peaked 4 weeks after the lockdowns, 4 weeks after all the schools were closed and 3 weeks after masks were mandated by the governor. In reality most schools were shuttered a week before the Governor mandated all schools to be closed. Rutgers, Princeton and all the other big colleges were closed by March 9th. All the stores required masks by March 15th. Yet hospitalizations peaked April 17th and deaths peaked April 19th. There is no evidence that the lockdowns worked. The virus ran rampant thru the population quickly despite the lockdowns and mandated mask wearing imposed by our Governor.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Wielgus

    My experience too. I feel I’m living in a gigantic Milgram experiment.

  300. Edward Dorsey: “I’ve been looking at the CDC’s page for much of the past week and have come to the conclusion that the CDC’s data is not to be trusted.”

    It does seem to be hard to interpret at the very least. The article I link here relied on CDC data and appeared in the Johns Hopkins newsletter, and it came to the opposite conclusion, i.e., that there have been NO excess deaths from Covid-19. Later, it was scrubbed from their website.

    https://web.archive.org/web/20201126163323/https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Dr. Robert Morgan

    Yeah, the article in a Johns Hopkins student publication on excess deaths made some very basic errors in how to work with the numbers. Berenson, for example, tweeted that it was all wrong and yes, there were excess deaths.

  301. @DN Oldworld
    I work for a company that has around 150,000 seniors in its customer base. Before the pandemic, we would lose 300-400 a month due to death. Since March of 2020 our deaths have consistently been 75% of what they were pre-COVID. Every month and in aggregate. There might be extra COVID deaths, but keeping seniors off the road and off the operating table for elective surgeries is more than offsetting them. No way there are surplus deaths.

    Replies: @vhrm

    V interesting and I admit I’m surprised. Are they “young” seniors or otherwise relevantly uncharacteristic?

    • Replies: @DN Oldworld
    @vhrm

    @vhrm - totally a cross section of the 65+ population; so skewed younger but only insofar as the general population is as well. All deaths below; and the base population actually grew about 4000 in this time so you’d expect it to be higher for this reason as well.
    2019 2020
    470. 380 March
    436. 385. April
    436. 413 may
    431. 343. Etc
    379. 345
    430. 369
    410. 346
    473. 422
    433. 399

  302. @Dr. Robert Morgan
    Edward Dorsey: "I’ve been looking at the CDC’s page for much of the past week and have come to the conclusion that the CDC’s data is not to be trusted."

    It does seem to be hard to interpret at the very least. The article I link here relied on CDC data and appeared in the Johns Hopkins newsletter, and it came to the opposite conclusion, i.e., that there have been NO excess deaths from Covid-19. Later, it was scrubbed from their website.

    https://web.archive.org/web/20201126163323/https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    Yeah, the article in a Johns Hopkins student publication on excess deaths made some very basic errors in how to work with the numbers. Berenson, for example, tweeted that it was all wrong and yes, there were excess deaths.

  303. @Travis
    @HA

    the purpose of the lockdowns , which began here in NJ began mid March, was to flatten the curve prevent the hospitals from being overwhelmed. They should have ended in May when the hospitals were well below capacity. Yet the lockdowns continued thru the summer, the majority of the schools did not open until October. Our school district did not open the schools until November. My wife is a teacher in Plainfield and they have remained closed and will stay closed until February. This is insanity. The lockdowns failed, yet they remain in-effect.

    The Lockdowns here little to no effect on the spread of COVID. Hospitalizations peaked 4 weeks after the lockdowns, 4 weeks after all the schools were closed and 3 weeks after masks were mandated by the governor. In reality most schools were shuttered a week before the Governor mandated all schools to be closed. Rutgers, Princeton and all the other big colleges were closed by March 9th. All the stores required masks by March 15th. Yet hospitalizations peaked April 17th and deaths peaked April 19th. There is no evidence that the lockdowns worked. The virus ran rampant thru the population quickly despite the lockdowns and mandated mask wearing imposed by our Governor.

    Replies: @vhrm

    Preach it brother!

    The view from “Northern California” is similar in that work from home, schools closed, masks and distancing in stores and no indoor dining have been in effect straight through since March. ( except for a brief period of indoor dining last month or two in some counties for some restaurants I guess? idk how French Laundry was open. In the casual/fast food/ ethnic tier I’m familiar with my area is takeout only with a few having some outdoor dining (and as many being closed or out of business))

    Covid levels were super low all along except for some vibrant communities until flu season started and now it’s actually climbing exponentially. (only state to do so currently afaict).

    Based on the mechanics of the virus spread I assume that the masks and closures have had some positive impact, but you won’t see any impact on the graphs when they went into effect nor did they prevent the current outbreak. The most reasonable conclusion is that things other than the mandates are controlling.

    My guess is that many people, especially not aged and not white collar types, just haven’t been paying much attention to the isolation guidance all along… and flu season conditions have raised R for this virus as they do for other respiratory viruses.

    Fortunately, except for California, it looks like daily new cases is shrinking or at least stable. I’m hopeful that we’re already turning the corner.

    http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=states&highlight=California&show=25&y=fixed&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=right-4wk#states

  304. @vhrm
    @DN Oldworld

    V interesting and I admit I'm surprised. Are they "young" seniors or otherwise relevantly uncharacteristic?

    Replies: @DN Oldworld

    – totally a cross section of the 65+ population; so skewed younger but only insofar as the general population is as well. All deaths below; and the base population actually grew about 4000 in this time so you’d expect it to be higher for this reason as well.
    2019 2020
    470. 380 March
    436. 385. April
    436. 413 may
    431. 343. Etc
    379. 345
    430. 369
    410. 346
    473. 422
    433. 399

    • Thanks: vhrm
  305. • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @MEH 0910

    First black superstar?

    Only black superstar, actually only black country singer I've ever heard of. I liked his stuff though.

  306. @HA
    @Achmed E. Newman

    "Mi nombre ees Achmed, "

    I know who you are all too well. You're the guy whose only apparent purpose in life is commenting on Steve's blog (so it's no wonder you don't much care for other people's lives either). In any case, I was using "you" to refer to all the people you yourself just admitted you agreed with. I was using "you" to refer to all the corona-truthers who have racked up one bungled prediction after another and still manage to come around here spewing even more evidence-free assertions and complaining that Steve hasn't lived up to your standards -- and you're definitely one of those, too. That's two for two, no confusion whatsoever. So before you come to me expecting apologies, work on fixing your own Black Death strawmanning if misattribution bothers you so much. Asking anyone "why are you acting like this is the Black Death?" is like asking him when he stopped beating his dog.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    HA, I write my own blog and have a real job and a family. I’ve enjoyed commenting on unz (iSteve in particular). What you could do is not assume you are just so much a savior of the world and in the right on this issue. I agree with Steve Sailer on 95% of the stuff he writes. I like the guy. However, if I think he doesn’t understand how big a problem this PanicFest is to small business, the American economy in general, and above all, what’s left of the freedom of American, I’m gonna bring it up.

    I noted that you replied to me first, not vice-versa. You just wrote that you now see my writing as the amalgamation of all things anti-panic, and based on whom I agree with on comments, The act of mashing [Agree] does not mean I agree with every detail. Note, I don’t hold you to comments from every single Kung Flu hysteric, just what YOU wrote. Do you say this virus was created in the US to send to China to be spread by a sports team in Wuhan? Well, Ron Unz says that, and he’s also pro-panic. Why do you think this virus would be purposely spread in China, without anyone thinking that this might cause an epidemic here too? Answer me – you’re one of the panickers, so that’s you, right?

    I”ll just answer for myself, not every detail from everyone else who sees problems with this PanicFest. This COVID-19 epidemic is no worse than a number of bad flu years we’ve had. We know which people are vulnerable, and we should act accordingly. YOU PEOPLE, that is, the Kung Flu Panickers, have been so far wrong in your predictions, that I see I’ve been vindicated in not believing your hysteria.

    • Agree: Adam Smith
  307. @MEH 0910
    https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1337883982034251778

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    First black superstar?

    Only black superstar, actually only black country singer I’ve ever heard of. I liked his stuff though.

  308. @HA
    @MB

    "Search engines are not intelligent, they just give you data."

    I'd say the same thing about that statement, given that it shows no sign of intelligence either. What search engines -- and the data they provide -- can do is give you an indication as to who in living memory actually made the claim that coronavirus is like the Black Death.

    I can do that for AIDS.

    I can do that for Ebola.

    Tell me then, who seriously tries to compare coronavirus to the Black Death. Go ahead, I'll wait.

    Replies: @MB

    Huh? Maybe nobody has literally compared the corona virus to the black plague, but that’s essentially immaterial in that that was not asserted.

    Rather some of us remember without resorting to google, the predictions from King’s College and IHME/Uof W. QED. This has been a panic pandemic from the start with the media and politicians equally guilty of rampant fearmongering and BS. The virus is a nasty respiratory bug, but it’s not anything like what was claimed/predicted for it with the Diamond Princess and USS Roosevelt aircraft carrier being cases in point.

    IOW its no different than the scare mongering over terrorism, climate change etc. with the usual Chicken Littles crying wolf and blowing things way out of proportion.

    After all, some of us actually survived the ’58 asian flu and the ’68 hong kong flu with nowhere near the hysteria that surrounds this fiasco. Even the CDC admitted a while back that only 6% actually died from the virus. Everyone else had at least 2.6 co-morbidities.

    cheers

  309. @Reg Cæsar
    These guys, as usual, were way ahead of their time:



    https://i2-prod.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/incoming/article11949878.ece/ALTERNATES/s1200c/JS100896473.jpg

    Replies: @Mike Tre, @Wielgus, @Hail Caesar

    The guy in the background is probably thinking, “What strange behaviour.” If he is still alive (and he looks 30-ish so would perhaps be in his 90s now) he may well be wearing a mask himself.

  310. @Reg Cæsar
    These guys, as usual, were way ahead of their time:



    https://i2-prod.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/incoming/article11949878.ece/ALTERNATES/s1200c/JS100896473.jpg

    Replies: @Mike Tre, @Wielgus, @Hail Caesar

    They arrived in the USA within months of JFK’s assassination, with a guy named Epstein. That might be him.

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