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Egypt Expected to Add 28 Million People in This Decade
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From the New York Times news section:

As Egypt’s Population Hits 100 Million, Celebration Is Muted

With little habitable land, deepening poverty and dwindling supplies of water, the future looks bleak. And there is no sign of a slowdown.

By Declan Walsh
Feb. 11, 2020

… If unchecked, the population could reach 128 million by 2030, officials say.

Mr. el-Sisi tried to push back the tide with a public health campaign called “Two Is Enough” to persuade parents to have fewer children. Like many such efforts, it failed.

Fertility rates have risen since 2008, to 3.5 children per woman, according to the United Nations, and the population is growing 1.8 percent annually — a rate that, in Egypt’s crowded cities and towns, adds one million citizens every six months….

Egypt’s population crisis is amplified by its unforgiving geography: 95 percent of the population lives on about 4 percent of the land, a green belt roughly half the size of Ireland that follows the Nile as it snakes through the desert then fans out into the lush Nile Delta.

… During the 1990s and 2000s, rates fell to 3.0 from 5.2, according to government figures.

But the rate rose again around the time of the Arab Spring in 2011, for reasons that are not entirely clear, but probably stem from economic disruption, government turmoil and a drop in birth control funding from Western governments. …

Other large developing countries with soaring populations have managed to get the problem under control. Vietnam, where the population grew to 97 million in 2018 from 60 million in 1986, has reduced the rate of increase to 1 percent. Bangladesh, which has a population of more than 160 million, has done the same.

In Egypt, though, the rate of growth is nearly twice as high, at 1.79 percent in 2018-19.

In general, the world path for fertility is down down down. A major problem of the 22nd Century might be to turn that around.

But in this century rapid population growth is still a problem in some countries, even as the problem is being solved in other, seemingly similar countries. E.g., terribly overpopulated Islamic Bangladesh has made a lot of progress, but Pakistan less so.

 
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  1. Build the wall, Egypt! Make Egypt Egyptian again!

    What? Oh, Egypt’s not importing them?

  2. Future “climate refugees”.

    • Replies: @IHTG
  3. I said it manytimes here already.

    Place your bets! Which country collapses first?

    Egypt

    Pakistan

    Nigeria

    What is the economical base of soon 80 million people in the desert state of Niger – the country with the highest fertility-rate?

  4. IHTG says:
    @International Jew

    Egyptians as a people are among the “homeboys” of the Third World. They don’t emigrate as much you’d expect from their numbers. Same for Indonesians. Somebody could run a statistical analysis on this.

  5. According to Razib Khan, Bengali Muslims generally don’t practise cousin marriage.

    That might explain a lot of this.

  6. @Another German Reader

    Low fertility countries like Greece, Japan and Germany will collapse much faster than any of those three states.

    No child bearing families = no economic activity to speak of and absolutely no culture, leadership, unity, or path.

  7. the first policy of the trump (and every republican administration) is cutting funds to NGO’s that support abortion and pills worldwide.

    this is something that even the press dont seems to make many articles complaining about it. why? for them it’s a good thing. the more disasters in africa and middle east, the more refugees all over europe and usa.

    if you check latin america, you’ll noticed that the fertility rate is about 2.0 and it causes a lot of problems for america.

    in europe though, it’s a clock bomb. the african average fertility rate is 5.0 and it’s not slowing. the blackening of the world is real

  8. @Another German Reader

    What is the economical base of soon 80 million people in the desert state of Niger – the country with the highest fertility-rate?

    The economical base of Niger is Sweden of course. Nothing says Viking ancestry more than land-locked Niger.

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
  9. Mr. el-Sisi tried to push back the tide with a public health campaign called “Two Is Enough” to persuade parents to have fewer children. Like many such efforts, it failed.

    LOL. Good for them. This is what it would be like if they did:

    Refugees Should Be Welcomed by Aging Egypt

    Egypt Population Drop Spells Skills Shortage in North Africa’s Powerhouse

    Wild Boars Are Taking Over Egypt as Population Ages, Disappears

    Ageing Egypt needs immigration: NA foreign affairs chief

    Refugees Should Be Welcomed by Aging African Nations

  10. nebulafox says:

    >Mr. el-Sisi tried to push back the tide with a public health campaign called “Two Is Enough” to persuade parents to have fewer children. Like many such efforts, it failed.

    Just like Singapore and how that failed, eh?

    Egypt is gonna blow. There’s no way the Nile can support 28 million more people.

  11. Jack D says:
    @Another German Reader

    in the desert state of Niger

    When my son was in middle school, one day a boy was asked to read a passage out loud that mentioned Niger. He was unsure as to how to pronounce it. Is it a hard g or a soft g? Short i or long i? Even worse, the teacher was black. He came to the word. He hesitated. He stopped. Beads of sweat formed on his forehead. Go on, the teacher said. Keep reading….

  12. Jack D says:
    @JohnPlywood

    If Japan goes back to the population that it had in 1960, that’s not the end of the world. Even in 1960 it was a pretty crowded place. Fertility never goes to zero and at some point it will recover. Any projection that shows it staying the same forever is wrong. Whatever it will be in the future is different than it is now – nothing stays the same forever. The biggest issue is the age distribution (but this is temporary). They will have to get robots to take care of all the old people. They are already doing this.

  13. @baked georgia

    To be honest, not sure that it matters.

    Their countries won’t collapse as long as (formerly) white countries continue to take them in. That’s 28 million more people living on French, or American, or Australian welfare sending remittances back to Egypt.

    How many Africans will fit in the USA?

    Non-whites have truly become parasitical; they simply live off of the whites, expect us to solve all their problems, and cry like babies when they have to do something themselves. When are we going to say enough is enough??

    About east Asia? Well, south korean fertility is 0.93 this year, Taiwan, hk is in the 1.05 range, china is uncertain but nowhere near replacement. Japan is falling again to 1.36. So yeah the future is basically mud huts.

    • Replies: @HammerJack
  14. @Jack D

    Japan with low fertility and low immigration = old japan with less people

    UK with low fertility and high immigration = mud hut country of parasitical non whites eventually taking over and destroying everything.

    East Asia will crack though in 10 years they will learn hw diversity is strength and accept refugees.

    • Replies: @Jack D
  15. @baked georgia

    Stop sending food, medicine, and other aid, and stop letting them colonize our countries, and starvation will solve the problem rather quickly. This is cruel but their situation is self-inflicted and eminently avoidable.

    Just like our own developing overpopulation, housing, and food problems in the USA. Watch as the US population increases to 500 million fairly soon at current rates of immivasion, the big crop-producing areas of California run dry (as they already started to do recently), and people leave California in droves and deplete the water and food and housing supplies in other States.

  16. @Jack D

    As opposed to people in the US, who may soon just be Ubering each other to the welfare office and trading weed and antidepressants back and forth until it all collapses.

  17. @Jack D

    Fair point if they’re prudent enough to develop a “service army” of robots and artificial intelligence devices, rather than import higher-breeding alien populations as we are doing.

    But will places like Japan be able to defend themselves adequately with very few youngish men available to fight? Even with high-technology warfare, it would seem that defending and holding the home territory will require actual human beings, at least in the near future.

    Will an extremely aged Japan with drastically dwindling population be able to fend off a manpower-intensive Chinese invasion (without nuclear weapons or help from the US, which will be in serious trouble here at home)?

    Will an aged and dwindling Greek population, with few youngish men, be able to stave off a final conquest by the Turks (again without nukes and eventually without assistance from the USA)?

    Why would the still-massive Chinese or even Indian populations be content to stay mired in miserable overcrowding forever, rather than take the land and water that they need from weak dying peoples?

    Dubious.

  18. Lugash says:

    It’s amazing how much food aid we provide to the third world. Check out USAIDs 2019 report:

    https://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/documents/1866/FFP-FY19-Annual_Report.pdf

    I can’t find it with a quick search, but I recall Egypt being highly dependent on US providing food. Something like 20-25% of calories in the country came from aid. This was during the Arab uprising, so things might have gotten better.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
  19. Altai says:

    As Egypt’s Population Hits 100 Million, Celebration Is Muted

    That’s impossible. Did they do the blood sacrifice ritual to the Dow Jones correctly? As all economists will tell you: More people = More GDP. And if the GDP goes up, everyone is better off in every way. What’s per capita? Sounds like some kind of Italian socialist tax!

    • LOL: YetAnotherAnon
  20. @nebulafox

    Fertility rates have risen since 2008

    Ethiopia has also crossed the 100 million mark. I wonder how that’s working out for them? Of course if Africa is going to reach 4 billion this century, it’s going to have a lot of countries over 100 million. Maybe all of them, who knows.

  21. Anonymous[262] • Disclaimer says:

    A Warning from Recent History:

    In the last few decades, Syria experienced massive population growth – this was concomitant with mass unemployment, water shortage and food shortage. Inevitably this lead to violent civil unrest.
    Cunning Syrian gamesters – much more intelligent than the European Economist-whipped Ruling Class – figured just how easy it was to capitalize on the situation, and basically live the life of Riley off the sweat of gullible white dupes – and their leaders.

    The danger is, of course, that all of the above applies just as much to Egypt, but multiplied by an order of magnitude.
    Surely, the realisation must come to your cunning Egyptian gamester – much more intelligent than the Economist-whipped European ruling class, that formenting a violent response to the regime is not only for fun and profit – but can and will reward the antagonist a ‘golden ticket’ straight to Mama Merkel’s earthly paradise.

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
  22. Egyptian women have huge hips. It’s hot as hell all day and economic prospects for most people are grim. So what else is there to do?

  23. Buck says:
    @Jack D

    Exactly correct. The same could be said for the entire world which was about 3 trillion people in 1960, plenty for human achievement and sustainability.

    Economists keep pushing the idea that more people equals more growth but that view is simplistic. In modernity, human needs have largely been met. So much so that the most developed nations are plagued by chronic high unemployment and welfare dependency. Famines today are mainly politically driven, not ecologically.

    In today’s reality, it’s probably about 3 trillion efficient humans carrying the load for everybody. With wealth, later maturation and expanding lifespans; much of the population is only partially productive but fully consumptive.

    • Replies: @HammerJack
  24. @Jack D

    Whereas in an advanced economy like the UK, we sell houses and coffee to each other.

  25. Art Deco says:

    Egypt’s fertility rate is ample (about 3.3 children per woman per lifetime). However, it has declined by half in the last 50-odd years. It’s a passable guess it will fall to replacement rates in the next 20-odd years. The country is a net food importer. Net imports might account for about 20% of domestic consumption. They tolerate a great deal of illiteracy. About 30% of the population over 15 is illiterate and about 12% of the population between 15 and 25 is illiterate.

    That having been said, fuel and mineral exports don’t account for more than 3% of nominal gross domestic product; it has a normal production mix. Their income distribution as measured by the World Bank is similar to that of a western European country. Their real output per person (according to purchasing power parity) is about 22% of that of the United States, or, assessing things longitudinally, about what it was in this country just before and just after the Depression (albeit with a different commodity mix). In 1971, their output per person was 9% that of the United States. It’s a country with some odd features (especially in re their educational deficits) but it is in essence a middle-income country which has been gaining ground on the West for four decades.

    • Replies: @Muggles
  26. Art Deco says:
    @Lugash

    Not from aid. From commerical trade. The official development assistance they’ve received in recent years has amounted to < 1% of their nominal gross domestic product.

  27. Fertility rates have risen since 2008

    Can’t stop breeding? Cut ‘em off:

    For Thousands of Years, Egypt Controlled the Nile. A New Dam Threatens That.

    Without the Nile, there is no Egypt.

    During an interview with The New York Times at the dam in 2018, Semegnew Bekele, the project manager, said the undertaking would “eradicate our common enemy — poverty.”

    He cited the Hoover Dam in the United States as inspiration.

    “It makes America America,” he said, adding that he hoped Ethiopia’s dam would do the same for his country.

    Soon after, he was found slumped behind the wheel of his Toyota Land Cruiser, a gunshot wound to the head.

    Dam, that escalated quickly.

    • Agree: Redneck farmer
    • LOL: Mr McKenna
    • Replies: @Art Deco
    , @anon
  28. bomag says:
    @JohnPlywood

    No child bearing families = no economic activity to speak of and absolutely no culture, leadership, unity, or path.

    LOL!

    Please tell us about all the economic activity of Nigeria; Paki; and Egypt compared to Greece, Japan, and Germany relative to demographics at any level.

    If you were parachuting in from orbit circa 2120 with today’s knowledge, would you aim for N, P, or E; or would you aim for G, J, or G?

    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
    , @HammerJack
  29. Art Deco says:
    @Jenner Ickham Errican

    Can’t stop breeding? Cut ‘em off:

    Again, ODA accounts for < 1% of their gross national income.

    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican
  30. Whiskey says: • Website

    Fertility is a function of female repression, lack of literacy, and she of first kid.

    Wow Egyptians with illiterate girls marrying and having kids at age 14 have more kids than a single sjw feminist studies grad with ivf at age 40.

  31. J.Ross says:
    @Jack D

    “What’s your favorite dinosaur?”
    “The one with 500 teeth.”
    [googles it] “Okay you little bastard …”

  32. @Jack D

    Go on, the teacher said. Keep reading….

    For future reference, if you’re surrounded by violent, easily triggered SJWs, the safest way to pronounce Niger is probably:

    KNEE-jer, emphasizing the KNEE with the ‘jer’ pronounced like the first syllable of the name, ‘Jerry.’

    Even sounds a bit French, really.

    You’re welcome.

  33. jb says:

    The overall pattern basically seems to be this: the more failed a country is in an economic and social sense, the more successful it is in a Darwinian sense. I’m beginning to suspect this might not work to the world’s long term advantage…

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    , @Jonathan Mason
  34. songbird says:
    @Another German Reader

    I don’t know, but Yemen seems quite remarkable to me. They are at about 28 million now (though it is hard to find a sure figure) and have 3% arable land, a large portion of which seems to be employed in growing khat.

    On the other hand, they do have some indeterminate amount of oil and gas.

  35. MEH 0910 says:

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
  36. Daniel H says:

    Hell is other people.

  37. @bomag

    There’s no sense in comparing them because they have different economies. The first world economies are credit economies based on people buying things like houses, cars, overseas vacations, educations, etc. A great deal of this economic activity is generated by parents buying some of these things for their kids. Fewer kids = fewer spenders. This will absolutely break an economy like ours that is dependent on this kind of activity (nigeria isn’t yet).

    The other sectors of first world economies include rent and investment. When the population shrinks, these things collapse.

    So yeah, fuck you you infantile little dipshit, you don’t know jack shit about how the fertility crisis is impacting our economies. Japan is going to get raped hard and I’m personally already planning to move to Zambia within the next ten years; as are a lot of really influential and intelligent people.

  38. @RadicalCenter

    You’re just being childish; there’s little threat of invasion anywhere in the world as it’s become clear by now that war and invasion are things of the past. The world has never been less imperialistic and its clear that this is going to last centuries.

    The economic threat of low fertility is that consumer-credit economies depend on generational stability. You need people having lots of kids, otherwise they’re going to buy 1 car instead of 3, won’t get a kid a credit car, won’t take out student loans for kids, won’t buy a McMansion, etc. Also. a nation that rapifly loses its largest spending and investing demograohic cohort (45-60 year olds) is going to experience a massive financial shock and major stock value declines barring massive international investment and migration.

    This fertility shit matters. Pooulation decline doesn’t mean you’re gonna go back to the way things were in the 1960s. It means your country is going to be nothing in 100 years, and the third world will be transferred the landmass your country was once known as anyway.

    Remember, there is abaolutely nothing, nothing at all that can stop the inevitable relocation of the third world to the first. No amount of political hand ringing can stop the logical conclusion of intergenerational fertility losses. Your only option is to ratchet up native births…. Otherwise you’re going down screaming in a plasmoid of impotent rage as everything you didn’t want to happen… Happens.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  39. @Jack D

    Japan is underpopulated. The streets are empty, the apartment are empty, entire rural towns are empty. Also, the biggest problem is the effect of dwindling family sizes on the consumer credit market and the exodus of middle age investors and shareholders caused by aging and death. Once these things are broken, you are left with nothing as the first world has no real economy outside these things. Robots do not buy stocks, cars, houses, educations, computers, TVs, bonds, or vacations. There is no reason at all to believe that fertility will ever recover short of a massive tactical response by the military, involving rape and imprisonment.

  40. @nebulafox

    Define “blow.” I’m looking for a falsifiable prediction here.

  41. @RadicalCenter

    people leave California in droves and deplete the water and food and housing supplies in other States.

    It’s going to be extremely interesting how water resource issues play out in the Western states as the Commiefornians emigrate to other states, particularly the ones that have imbalanced water rights agreements with the state of California.

  42. @RadicalCenter

    the big crop-producing areas of California run dry (as they already started to do recently)

    Don’t the “climate models” have it getting wetter?

    people leave California in droves and deplete the water and food and housing supplies in other States.

    America could feed far more than 500 million people. And housing is only scare where it’s made artificially scarce through restrictions on building.

    One wonders what would happen if middle class Americans suddenly had a fertility rate of 2.5 for some reason. I’m sure Matty Yglesias and the rest of the usual suspects would switch to “muh ecology, have fewer for the planet” mode rather quickly. But they wouldn’t be the only group suddenly having to confront cognitive dissonance. Would you say, in that situation, to have fewer because of the non-existent shortages?

  43. @Canadian Observer

    Egyptian women have huge hips. It’s hot as hell all day and economic prospects for most people are grim. So what else is there to do?

    Smoke cigarettes, loiter, get high on drugs, and sleep, like normal people in the rest of North Africa.

  44. Art Deco says:
    @jb

    Egypt isn’t failed in an economic or social sense. It’s a middle income country with a diversified productive base and without much skew in its income distribution. It does have a comparatively large population of illiterates (30% of the population over 15) and the portion of the population over 15 which is employed is fairly depressed (it is 40% right now, 67% of the male population and about 17% of the female population). High levels of illiteracy and low levels of labor mobilization are signatures of Arab countries.

  45. Art Deco says:
    @Jenner Ickham Errican

    Official development aid. They’re not getting much to cut off.

    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican
  46. Anonymous[152] • Disclaimer says:
    @Lot

    Nothing to do with the late, great British antiques expert, Arthur Negus ….

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  47. @Buck

    Three trillion? This really is getting out of hand.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  48. @bomag

    Yes. It remains odd to say the least that people still maintain vastly increased population will produce vastly improved living standards, when the evidence to the contrary is all around us.

    Let’s see, which countries have the highest population? China, India, the USA, Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Brazil, Bangladesh. A bunch of third world hellholes and one country well on its way to joining them.

  49. @LoutishAngloQuebecker

    How many Africans will fit in the USA?

    Oh, all of them, I hope. However else will we achieve Peak Diversity?

  50. I am sure that Corona-Chan and Locust-Chan want to have a say in that.

  51. Daniel H says:

    95 percent of the population lives on about 4 percent of the land, a green belt roughly half the size of Ireland

    Oh, oh. Watch out Ireland. The globo-homos who run your country will use this dubious factoid as rationale to cram your country with 20-25 million of the aspiring. Simple math. Habitable landmass of Egypt is only 1/2 the size of Ireland, but Egypt can fit 100-120 million into this space so surely Ireland cann take in 20 million, right? Right? Right? Right?

  52. @Art Deco

    Official development aid.

    Oh. No, as per my link I meant cut off the Nile River. Entirely. Nile crocs busting out of the mud, rampaging through downtown Cairo, biblical chaos, womp womp, etc.

  53. @Anonymous

    “Surely, the realisation must come to your cunning Egyptian gamester – much more intelligent than the Economist-whipped European ruling class, that formenting a violent response to the regime is not only for fun and profit – but can and will reward the antagonist a ‘golden ticket’ straight to Mama Merkel’s earthly paradise.”

    Doesn’t work quite like that. If the US/EU/UK/Saudis want to foment violence and can do it successfully*, then yes, see Syria.

    But in Egypt quite recently and Algeria a couple of decades ago, we see that an overthrown Muslim Brotherhood government, despite presumably having majority support (they won the elections after all), fomenting – or even considering – a violent response to the usurpers is generally followed by hundreds of death sentences, arbitrary detentions, torture – while the US/UK/EU look the other way.

    The US won’t support/arm anti-regime Egyptians, therefore there’ll be no flood of refugees.

    (*The US has been trying unsuccessfully so far to foment violence in Venezuela.)

  54. @MEH 0910

    Talking of people changing the language for their political ends, is anyone in the US following the Guardian in changing “global warming” to the more urgent-sounding “global heating” ?

    (Lawmakers should use Bibi’s “illegal infiltrators”)

    • Replies: @Corvinus
  55. Svevlad says:

    Hmm, seems like a moment for, uh, “faulty vaccines” accidentally sterilizing a bunch of people

    • Replies: @nymom
  56. Jack D says:
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    The French way is to say KNEE zhair (rhymes with chair).

    English is to say NYE (rhyme with rye) jer (as in jersey).

  57. @RadicalCenter

    Japan already has all the pieces necessary to assemble nukes. Only the NPT stops them from doing so.

  58. jb says:
    @Art Deco

    Egypt is less successful economically and socially than the West or East Asia, but more successful than sub-Saharan Africa, and its fertility rate is about midway between those. I think in a general sense the pattern does hold.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
  59. Jack D says:
    @LoutishAngloQuebecker

    parasitical non whites eventually taking over and destroying everything.

    I saw this piece yesterday on the BBC about the town of Harrismith in South Africa. The electricity, water and sewage no longer function. Hundreds of millions of $ were stolen. On a national scale, billions.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-africa-51479450/harrismith-south-africa-a-town-fixing-itself

    • Replies: @JMcG
  60. @Jack D

    Good comment and a point not made often enough. A lot of the declining fertility population projections show countries reaching the population that they had in the 1950s and none of these were howling, unpopulated wildernesses. The real problem is one of population replacement. A controlled population decline is a management issue; not without its challenges, but definitely better than uncontrolled expansion.

    • Agree: Mr McKenna
    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
    , @Art Deco
  61. JMcG says:
    @Jack D

    A few years ago there was a story about the submarines in the South African navy. They had bounced one off the bottom of the ocean, shorted out the batteries in the second, and the third was laid up for lack of qualified crew or some such reason. All diesel-electric boats of course.

  62. Anonymous[279] • Disclaimer says:

    But more people = more wealth, as (((experts))) told us, that’s why we need more immigration. Didn’t some hummus eating intellectual just published a book recently that says US will benefit from having One Billion people, so we can compete with China?

    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
  63. nymom says:
    @Svevlad

    Bill Gates is already working on that in Africa…

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna
  64. @Diversity Heretic

    You have no idea whst you’re talking about. The markets can’t manage a 25% decline in shareholders and debtors. Our economy works on credit. Uncontrolled expansion is what it depends on, and you’re going to get the immigrants regardless of who is in office, because this world is controlled and dominated by market forces — not politics. No market = no country in the 21st century.

  65. @Anonymous

    We need more immigrants because American women failed to breed. If you don’t show up to participate you get no representation.

    So many people seem to want to focus on anything but the bizarre downward fertility trend. They are afraid of actually solving it. We call these people {{{cuck infiltrators pretending to be right wing}}}.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
  66. Art Deco says:
    @jb

    Come again? As a rule, fertility declines with affluence. One vector is the productivity improvements release labor from the agricultural sector, who then are employed in industry and services. Children are much more of an economic asset in agricultural economies than they are in industrial and service economies. However, countries at the same level of economic development will have quite varying fertility. Low fertility doesn’t generate technological adaptations or process improvements. India has a lower fertility rate than Egypt and is less affluent as well (though it has been quite economically dynamic the last 30 years).

    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
  67. Art Deco says:
    @Diversity Heretic

    Your problem in the affluent countries of the Far East, in Germany, and in some other European countries is that you’ve had subreplacement fertility for 30+, years, it shows no sign of abating, and it is quite severe. The number of live births in Portugal in recent years has been 60% lower than it the number in 1950. That’s not a ‘management issue’. That’s one middle aged man taking care of three grandparents. That’s a death spiral.

    • Replies: @Just passing through
  68. @Alexander Turok

    Vietnam – a country with family-planning with pre-natal abortions:

    The provinical town of Lai Chau – one of the poorest region of Vietnam

    Syria – a country without family-planning, but since 2011 with post-natal abortion:

    Egypt, Nigeria, Pakistan are much much larger powder-kegs.

  69. @HammerJack

    Brazil? Brazil has a tiny population. They’ve had shit-tier fertility for decades, as well.

    Population density (people per sq. km) in United States was reported at 35.77 sq. Km in 2018, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources.

    Most of Brazil is sparsely populated with a population density of 24.66 people per square kilometer (62 per square mile), which ranks 6th in the world

    China has an equal and rising standard of living with the USA, and the rest of the countries you mentioned have only barely entered the modern economic system. They will vastly outshine the USA in 20-50 years. The major only part of America that is nearly third world is the depopulated rust belt.

    Just keep riding off this failing (failing because of low fertility) country’s faded glory while you still can. One day you’ll wake up delirious as it finally dawns on you that your race, ethnicity, religion and pride were nothing but a piece of plastic that is now being melted down for recycling on to the next participants in history. It’s over, and all because you failed to be hardcore.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @Art Deco
  70. J.Ross says:

    JohnPlywood should be thought of as a semi-troll, because, while he actually cites things and speaks intelligently about relevant concepts (unlike a true troll), he is too passionately attached to his ideas, and incapable of talking like a human. If I were to reply directly to him about the idea that Japan is already “empty” being laughable or the idea that Japan cannot drastically adapt its economy, after doing just that, multiple times over the past hundred years, with world-beating success, he wouldn’t say or prove that I was wrong: he would tell me to kill myself.
    As a semi-troll JohnPlywood should be checked for non-screaming responses with graphs and such, but never directly engaged with (refer to him in future as “The King of Zambia”). I believe after reading his past comments that his mathematical capacity is either a front or irrelevant and that his honest purpose here is disruption. He is sometimes disruptive with apparent intelligence, but he is always disruptive. Even when he has something which is not inappropriately enraged infantile screaming, it coexists with that.

    • Agree: Rob, Lurker
    • Thanks: JohnPlywood
  71. Anonymous[337] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous

    Negus pleeez….

  72. @Art Deco

    Children are even more of an asset in modern economies than in agriculture. An enormous amount of spending in our country revolves around children (cars, bigger houses, video games, student loans, etc). In fact, the entire past 40 years of our economic activity has depended primarily on buying shit for your kids. Now that everyone under 30 is about to be childless for life and living in Ted Kaczynski microhomes or apartments, and riding bikes or taking the bus, it’s over. The entire bullshit economy that we rode off of for the last 40 years is coming to an abrupt and screeching halt thanks to women not getting married and having a measely 3 kids, unless we get more immigrants and more foreign investment.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
  73. Jack D says:
    @JohnPlywood

    14 million people live in Tokyo and 40 in the metro area. This is no one’s idea of empty.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    , @JohnPlywood
  74. @jb

    The overall pattern basically seems to be this: the more failed a country is in an economic and social sense, the more successful it is in a Darwinian sense. I’m beginning to suspect this might not work to the world’s long term advantage…

    Long ago I made this argument in a public health course paper, arguing that those women who started having babies earlier and continued having babies with multiple fathers were the matriarchs who would pass more of their genes onto future populations. (However, this was not the desired answer for the purposes of the course.)

  75. J.Ross says:
    @Jack D

    See my comment when it completes moderation.

  76. @Art Deco

    Egypt isn’t failed in an economic or social sense.

    Ireland at the same density of fertile Egypt would have a population of 200,000,000. About the US at the 1970 Census.

    Apple is Irish and Burger King Canadian, but this could be adapted:

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna
    , @Art Deco
  77. @HammerJack

    Three trillion? This really is getting out of hand.

    As Senator Dirksen said, a trillion here, a trillion there, and pretty soon you’re talking real people.

  78. @Daniel H

    The homo PM of Ireland just got his ass kicked in an election, he even struggled to get elected to the parliament, which was amazing, this was a real slap in the face

    On the down side I don’t think the new government will be any better 🙁

  79. mobi says:
    @HammerJack

    Ethiopia has also crossed the 100 million mark.

    What a coincidence – evenly matched in manpower!

    Who’s got more fight in them – Egyptians or Ethiopians?

    More importantly, maybe – which side would Israel take?

    The United States is brokering talks between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan to reduce tensions over a dam on the Nile River, a source of many regional conflicts between [them] in the past.
    Ethiopia has been building the so-called Renaissance Dam near its border with Sudan for eight years.
    But Egypt fears the dam will reduce the flow of water along the river which accounts for nearly 90 percent of its supply.

    …”Ethiopia could mobilize millions in a conflict with Egypt…” [Ethiopian PM]

  80. @Daniel H

    Twenty million by Thursday. If it’s real Vibrant Diversity we want (and who doesn’t!) we’ll need 100 million at minimum, and 99% Africans for effect.

  81. @nymom

    Unfortunately, Bill & Melinda are working on the exact opposite of that. Their goal is to facilitate a much higher African population than the UN projections indicate. Not exactly sure why; it probably has something to do with Billionaire Virtue Signaling.

    It may be the word billion which has them all excited. As much as they love billions, they figure that a world with countless billions will be ever so much better. Why African billions? Not exactly sure.

  82. @Reg Cæsar

    Wow, that is one nauseating commercial. Puts me in the way of thinking that mass extermination of humanoids is the planet’s only hope. Is that so wrong?

  83. Cato says:

    Mr. el-Sisi tried to push back the tide with a public health campaign called “Two Is Enough” to persuade parents to have fewer children. Like many such efforts, it failed.

    Garret Hardin pointed out long ago that VOLUNTARY fertility reduction would –via natural selection– lead to fewer people in the population willing to voluntarily reduce their fertility. The Chinese demonstrated their superior understanding of this issue in MANDATING fertility reduction, and this is the path that countries like Egypt need to follow.

    • Agree: Pat Kittle
    • Replies: @Lagertha
  84. But the rate rose again around the time of the Arab Spring in 2011, for reasons that are not entirely clear, but probably stem from economic disruption, government turmoil and a drop in birth control funding from Western governments.

    PPP figures show a constant rise in Egypt’s GDP per capita. “Government turmoil” does not usually cause an increase in fertility. And given the lack of evidence for a “drop in birth control funding,” I’m going to assume they’re making it up. much as they make up other stories of things getting “de-funded.” A more likely explanation is a rise in nuptiality, which according to this source started rising sharply in 2008:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/971331/egypt-number-marriages/

    The post-war baby boom in the Western world was mostly about a rise in nuptiality. Fertility inside and outside of marriages was unchanged. I’ve wondered if this may recur in other areas in the future, those with high ages at first marriage which could, for whatever reason, suddenly come down.

  85. Anonymous[206] • Disclaimer says:
    @JohnPlywood

    Nonsense.

    Spending less money on kids will inevitably lead to more spending by adults on their selves. Basic, basic elementary economics.
    Production will re adjust to serve the new reality.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @JohnPlywood
  86. Anonymous[206] • Disclaimer says:
    @JohnPlywood

    “War and invasion are things of the past ….”

    I would really, really love to hold you to that prediction in the very long term – the unknown and unknowable future, time measured in centuries.

    The one thing that can be said with any certainty is that if we judge the previous track record of humanity, all that we know of history and the past, a different conclusion is drawn.

  87. @Anonymous

    “War and invasion are things of the past.”

    Pfft. War and invasion are going on right now, rather robustly… and I don’t mean in Syria.

    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
  88. Egypt Expected to Add 28 Million People in This Decade

    Unlike us in the West, the Egyptians are doing it the good old-fashioned way. More power to them and their next round of pyramid building to keep them busy.

  89. Anonymous[152] • Disclaimer says:
    @JohnPlywood

    An absolutely ridiculous statement.

    Firstly, Japan has a population in the region of 120 million odd – which counts as a ‘mass population country’ in anyone’s book.
    Secondly, the Japanese people are crammed into their modest sized islands off the coast of east Asia. Of their island fastness, something like 70% of the land area is totally uninhabitable due to it being too mountainous and steeply inclined. Thus the entire population – agriculture, industry, people and all, is crammed into the coastal lowlands.
    Why else do you think that Tokyo is full of sky scraper apartment blocks?

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @JohnPlywood
  90. @HammerJack

    Ethiopia is the new [insert your favorite garment manufacturing country to which fashion brands outsource], the “Economy” is growing fast and in a few years should be almost completely in Chinese hands.

  91. Anonymous[206] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous

    Also, it releases an enormous amount of capital – *the* vital ingredient in raising living standards – in that workers will be obliged to save hard for retirement, and being free of children will be able to spare the cash – for industrial investment purposes. This in time will prompt the enormous inflow of cash as dividends and interest payments.

    CF the Singapore and Norwegian investment funds.

    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
  92. @Hippopotamusdrome

    This footage is from the year 1989 in Shibuya City in Tokyo, when Japan was still a junior in the developed world. This kind of kind of thing seldom happens anymore as the rail system in Japan has been expanded, with way more cars on the tracks (more spacious cars as well).

  93. @The Germ Theory of Disease

    No they aren’t, it’s small time skirmishes that are dwarfed by the size of the battles of the 20th, 19th and 18th centuries. Civilians and soldiers are also way less likely to die in wars nowadays; war is a much ‘safer’ and less confrontational experience than it was over the last millennium. In fact, it is so safe that people now take “warcations” to go enjoy the thrill of the fighting.

  94. @Jack D

    In 1960, the Japanese at least knew how to make babies.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/japan-birth-rate-record-low-child-population-pregnancy-ageing-a8952116.html

    In English, we of course call people in their 80s, octogenarians. I asked a Japanese friend if they had a word for 80 somethings. He said, yes, they call them “young people”

  95. @Anonymous

    Hilarious drivel. Nobody’s going to buy themselves a couple of extra cars, a house with two extra bedrooms in it, a couple of English literature degrees, an extra copy of the video game consoles they own, etc. People only buy that stuff for their kids.

    What we see happening is what I already told you was happening: people are buying smaller homes, or no homes of any kind. They’re buying fewer cars, and many young people in urban areas have no cars and are never going to buy a car in their lives. Growing numbers of adults have never had a driver’s license before (Google it). Young people are investing less in the stock market than at any time in modern US history.

    Economic activity in this country would have grinded to a screeching halt if it weren’t for the saving grace of foreign investors and immigrants. Latinos and Asians are powering our economy. Deport them, and wake up in a reality where everything you thought white people were capable of has been shattered to pieces.

  96. @Jack D

    More than 1 in 10 homes in Japan are empty:

    https://i.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/latest/112493313/why-are-so-many-houses-sitting-empty-in-japan

    There are 1 million abandoned homes in Tokyo for which no owner can be identified. That’z over 1 million families in Tokyo that have disintegrated from low birth rates.

    Imagine actually calling yourself a “Conservative” and at the same time trying to rationalize that as something harmless. What is it with people like you? Are you afraid of admitting the problem because you know the solution involves revolution? Every time I encounter your ilk on the rightosphere, I assume you are either a.) CIA/environmentalist astroturfers or b.) simply incredibly weak male or strong female individuals who are described perfectly by the following passage:

    “The deviant male was above all a bourgeois, egoistic and unpatriotic as well as scarcely virile (because he was unfit or reluctant to repeatedly impregnate the female); the deviant female was the too ‘modern’ woman, Americanized, independent and masculinized. The social damages provoked by these two converging deviants were most serious: a widespread and ‘excessive loosening of family hierarchical relations, a decline in the main of that robust virility that fascism, with much love and perseverance, pursues in other ways”[4]

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
  97. Anonymous[152] • Disclaimer says:
    @JohnPlywood

    Nonsense, nonsense, nonsense.

    *ALL* that matters in today’s world is technology – and its concomitant – productivity.

    Hence, tiny Singapore has the highest incomes in the world. Populous Nigeria is a shit hole.

    Actually, there *IS* a deadly, mortal imminent threat to European descended people everywhere. It’s called ‘massive uncontrolled third world immigration’ , and its promoters happen to run the west (Economist).

    Other than this cataclysm in the making, I guarantee you that the future for white people everywhere would be bright and rosy, in fact the best ever in history.

    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
  98. Anonymous[739] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous

    In fact, the Japanese – knowingly and willingly – were forced to build the Fukushima nuclear plant right slap bang in the middle of an extremely active geological fault.

    There was simply no where else to put it.

    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
  99. @JohnPlywood

    Well that settles it for this guy.

    We need to add a button for “Ninny.”

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  100. @Anonymous

    No it doesn’t. 120 million people is nothing. East Asians have always lived in high population density communities — it’s a part of their forte and it doesn’t bother them at all. You’re coming at this from the perspective of a person who has severe anxiety disorder/schizophrenia and who lives in a low density county. The rest of the world doesn’t fear living around people.

    Also, cut this “industry and agriculture” crap. Japan has no industries anymore that cannot comfortably fit in a city and its only major agricultural output is cedar logging, which occurs in those “uninhabitable” regions you speak of. Japan’s a high tech credit-consumer economy now, and not an industrial agricultural country. If you’re talking about food; obviously food production is a negligible part of Japan’s economy and they will never be a food self-sufficiency nation; their advanced economy enables them to purchase their food from the breadbaskets of the world: the USA, Canada and China.

    Japan’s farmland is increasingly abandoned and dilapidated:

    https://agrariantrust.org/news/aging-farmers-leaving-abandoned-farms-in-japan/

    You sound like someone whose worldview is based on SimCity or World of Warcraft.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @Daniel H
  101. @ Art Deco & John Plywood:

    Please tell me what does Egypt gain from having currently more than 20% youth unemployment, with academics having 3x% unemployment-rate?

    Please tell me why there was mass uprising in 2011 which overthrew the long-ruling president? Why were the Egyptians so desperate that they voted for an Islamist as president? Why are Egyptians so desperate that they accepted a new military strongman as a leader?

    Please tell me why there are constantly demonstrations regarding fuel prices, bread prices etc?

    Please tell me why there is an active terrorism threat with hundred of innocents & policemen/soldiers have been killed over the last two decades?

    Why is Vietnam pulling ahead of Egypt in all socio-economical indicators and the darling of foreign investors from ice-cream producer to Intel?

    Why is Vietnam -despite having a lower GDP/capita level- having a lower poverty-rate?

    You should have at least the ability to fake a discussion!

    • Replies: @anon
    , @Art Deco
  102. @Art Deco

    Egypt’s (2019) GDP per capita is US$3 046, making it #132 out 192 countries in the world. To put that in perspective, the US (#8) has a GDP per capita of $65 000. I’m not sure where you’re getting this “middle income country” nonsense from. A middle income country would be Mexico or Thailand.

    http://statisticstimes.com/economy/countries-by-gdp-capita.php

    • Replies: @Art Deco
  103. Anonymous[739] • Disclaimer says:
    @JohnPlywood

    Put it this way:

    If someone gave me 300 Dollars each week to put in my pocket, I *certainly* would know how to spend it.

  104. @JohnPlywood

    Utter nonsense in the extreme….oh wait, this is sarcasm, right? I’m too spergy to pick up on that sometimes. Sorry.

    • Replies: @anon
  105. @JohnPlywood

    Young people are investing less in the stock market than at any time in modern US history.

    Right, it’s eighty year olds buying Tesla stock.

    Market Summary > Tesla Inc
    NASDAQ: TSLA
    804.00 USD 0.00 (0.00%)
    Closed: Feb 14, 8:29 AM EST · Disclaimer
    Pre-market 783.16 −20.84 (2.59%)
    Previous Close 767.29
    Open 741.84
    Bid 788.01 x 900
    Ask 793.50 x 1800
    Day’s Range 735.00 – 818.00
    52 Week Range 176.99 – 968.99
    Volume 26,289,348
    Avg. Volume 15,869,235
    Market Cap 144.917B
    Beta (5Y Monthly) 0.56
    PE Ratio (TTM) N/A
    EPS (TTM) -4.92
    Earnings Date Apr 22, 2020 – Apr 27, 2020
    Forward Dividend & Yield N/A (N/A)
    Ex-Dividend Date N/A
    1y Target Est 433.41

    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/auto-bob-lutz-nobody-explain-tesla-250-percent-stock-rally-2020-2-1028905903

    Bob Lutz has no idea why Tesla stock has rocketed more than 250% in six months.

    Neither do Wall Street’s brightest minds, the auto-industry veteran — who sat on the boards of Ford, Chrysler, and General Motors during his career — said on the BBC Business Daily podcast this week.

    “I talked to people at Goldman Sachs, who are usually the world’s greatest experts on explaining stock prices, and they’re now asking me whether I have any idea what the heck is going on with Tesla stock,” he said.

    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
  106. Art Deco says:
    @JohnPlywood

    China has an equal and rising standard of living with the USA,

    It doesn’t. About 70% lower by purchasing power parity.

    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
  107. Art Deco says:
    @JohnPlywood

    Children are even more of an asset in modern economies than in agriculture. A

    They aren’t. Children are good things, but their productive potential is unrealized.

    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
  108. Ben H says:

    The key question for Egypt isn’t economic: it’s cultural. That is, is this 28 million new Muslims or 28 million new, young Christians?

    Christians are still a substantial minority there, and there is already suspicion that the actual % of Christians in the country is significantly higher than the official figures. Christians also tend to be among the poor and rural people who might be expected to have more kids than the urban ruling and professional class Muslims.

  109. @Art Deco

    Children don’t have to have any productive potential; their very existence has powered a substantial share of the economic growth of the last few decades. We don’t live in a “production-based” economy anymore, but a consumption economy.

    A huge amount of what creditors lend is going directly from parent to child. High tech gadgets such as video games and cell phones go primarily to young brown people in 2020. Take away credit, cars and media/entertainment devices, and you’re left with a country whose sole purpose to supply oil, wheat and beef to the rest of the world. Everybody will have their houses, their land and their cars reposessed and they will be living in the sewers. That’s the HDI of the USA when you destroy the credit economy by failing to produce what it needs (young people).

    • Replies: @Art Deco
  110. @Art Deco

    That is more than compensated for by free healthcare, extremely high quality transportation, cheap internet access and telecommunications of superior performance to anything in the USA, and affordable housing. Most white American males under the age of 35 are actively planning to move to China or some similar East Asian country.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
  111. @donvonburg

    Wow, an actual Tesla shill. How you think this is relevant to anything I said, is a mystery.

    On the other hand, this link is much more appropriate:

    https://news.gallup.com/poll/233699/young-americans-wary-investing-stocks.aspx

    WASHINGTON, D.C. — A decade after stockholders lost trillions of dollars in the crash of 2008, younger Americans are still leery of investing their money in stocks. Though the stock market has climbed far above pre-crash levels, the combined percentage of adults younger than 35 with money in the stock market in 2017 and 2018 stands at 37%, down from 52% for people in that age range in the two years (2006-07) leading up to the crash

    Savings is another essential element of the economy that has taken a devastating blow to the testicles by women’s low birthrates. CHILDREN were a huge motivator behind savings, which have slumped for decades.

    The depth and the violence of the damage that low fertility has wreaked on our economy hasn’t manifested itself yet due to foreign investment and migration of warm bodies to our country.

  112. Mr. Anon says:
    @JohnPlywood

    We need more immigrants because American women failed to breed. If you don’t show up to participate you get no representation.

    A stupid assertion. Immigrants are not a drop-in replacement for Americans. Especially immigrants from Nigeria, Somalia, etc.

    If you are hungry and don’t have any food, the solution is not to start eating dirt.

  113. Mr. Anon says:
    @JohnPlywood

    Imagine actually calling yourself a “Conservative” and at the same time trying to rationalize that as something harmless.

    Nobody is saying it is harmless, nitwit. They are saying that it is better than giving your country over to foreigners who will completely change it.

  114. @Jack D

    So the teacher set this kid up, eh?

    Did the teacher have something particular against this pupil, or was it just pure hatred of the color of his skin?

    P.S. Since we’re not reading about this story in the New York Times or hearing about it on CNN, I conclude that the pupil must have dodged the bullet and found a non-offensive pronunciation of the African nation’s name.

  115. @J.Ross

    “he is too passionately attached to his ideas”

    My own jury is still out on whether he actually believes what he writes or he is just a rare sophisticated trolling op. Clearly he is more intelligent than the garden variety Tiny Ducks.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
  116. @Art Deco

    I am going to guess Japan will let in many migrants in the future, mostly from South East Asia who are not as bad as Bantus but alien to Japan nonetheless. PM Abe has let in a very high number of guest workers over the past few years, and we all know what happened with the Turkish gastarbeiters…

    Japanese men are particularly feminised, we in the West know of the effects of easily available pornography, Japanese porn culture is even more depraved.

  117. @J.Ross

    Japan will be easy meat for China in the future, they will have very few soldiers and will not be able to compete with China economically and will also be consumed in that front. We can gush about Japanese robots all day but the truth is these robots are not very good.

    • Replies: @Jack D
  118. @JohnPlywood

    You’re missing the point.

    In the 20th century, America invades Europe—twice—amidst much killing, terror and fire. American population today living in Europe? Unknown exactly, but it rounds to zero.

    In the 21st century, Africa, Arabia and Asia invade Europe with somewhat less killing, terror and fire. African, Arabian and Asian population today living in Europe? Unknown exactly, but it rounds to eight figures.

    The violence of the invasion matters much less than the subsequent population consequences.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
  119. anon[191] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jenner Ickham Errican

    He went to his grave perplexed by one thing. Why did the United States name such a great piece of engineering as the Hoover Dam after a vacuum cleaner company? When he found out the truth that it was named after a president, he died of a massive stroke. The bullet was just put in him to make him die in a more dramatic fashion.

  120. Art Deco says:
    @Almost Missouri

    In the 20th century, America invades Europe—twice—amidst much killing, terror and fire.

    Vaguely amusing how this site attracts people whose skein combines Nazi sympathies with paulbot fantasies.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
  121. Lurker says:
    @JohnPlywood

    Latinos and Asians are powering our economy.

    Then why do Latinos and Asians need to be in the US, why aren’t they powering their own economies?

  122. Art Deco says:
    @Johnny Smoggins

    You’re quoting figures for nominal gross domestic product. That’s a metric that’s useful for certain purposes, but it’s seldom quoted to attempt to compare standards of living. The purchasing-power-parity metric is the one quoted. (PPP is invalid in one circumstance: economies like Cuba where prices are administered). I quoted two sources, the World Bank and the Maddison Project.

    • Replies: @Johnny Smoggins
  123. Art Deco says:
    @JohnPlywood

    When you’ve learned to interpret national income statistics, get back to me. Right now you’re an exemplar of the Dunning-Kruger effect.

  124. Still waiting for Art Deco & John Playwood to answer my questions…

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  125. Anonymous[412] • Disclaimer says:
    @JohnPlywood

    “120 million is nothing”.

    I rest my case.

  126. Art Deco says:
    @JohnPlywood

    Children don’t have to have any productive potential; t

    Children have productive potential. Children without productive potential have value, but it’s not in the economic realm.

  127. anon[307] • Disclaimer says:
    @Another German Reader

    Literacy rate in Vietnam = 95%

    Literacy rate in Egypt = 76%

    https://ourworldindata.org/literacy

  128. Anonymous[152] • Disclaimer says:
    @The Germ Theory of Disease

    Schizophrenic, more like.

  129. Oh, didn’t you know? Overpopulation is a lying liberal scam. Don’t you read this rag?

  130. teotoon says:

    Is that a ‘head’ count?

  131. teotoon says:
    @HammerJack

    Don’t worry. the Chinese are the new Africans.

  132. @Art Deco

    Amusingly, I just added you to my preferred commenters list, but I’m baffled by what this comment means.

  133. Art Deco says:
    @Another German Reader

    Please tell me what does Egypt gain from having currently more than 20% youth unemployment, with academics having 3x% unemployment-rate?

    Not sure why you’re asking me that. I don’t know that they do or where this datum comes from. No one ‘gains’ from unemployment. It’s an indicator of deadweight loss and transactions not happening that should happen. Egypt’s current unemployment rate is 7.8%.

    Please tell me why there was mass uprising in 2011 which overthrew the long-ruling president? Why were the Egyptians so desperate that they voted for an Islamist as president? Why are Egyptians so desperate that they accepted a new military strongman as a leader?

    Why am I supposed to explain political conflict in Egypt to you? The economic situation is a vector in collective behavior, but Egypt has had both acute and chronic problems in recent years. My discussion concerned abiding problems and l/t trends, not this year’s or last year’s business recession or cultural conflicts.

    Please tell me why there are constantly demonstrations regarding fuel prices, bread prices etc?

    I don’t know that they are. If they were ‘constantly’ demonstrating, they wouldn’t get much work done. The country’s real output isn’t declining. People demonstrate when their specific family income takes a hit consequent to public policy. Subsidies and price controls are common in Arab countries and you have a constituency which benefits from them (the degree to which depends on the distribution of taste in the household in question. You try to remove them, you irritate a concentrated and self-conscious constitutency. The benefits received by others for removing the subsidies and price controls are more diffuse and they aren’t motivated to offer public support. This is a policy problem, not an abiding economic problem.

    Please tell me why there is an active terrorism threat with hundred of innocents & policemen/soldiers have been killed over the last two decades?

    Because there are fanatics who use lethal violence as a political tool. Again, what does this have to do with the subject of the moderator’s post?

    Why is Vietnam pulling ahead of Egypt in all socio-economical indicators and the darling of foreign investors from ice-cream producer to Intel?

    It isn’t as of yet. VietNam’s per capita product (PPP) is 40% lower. It has had a higher rate of growth in per capita product since 1998 (5% v. 2% per annum), but there could be a dozen different reasons for that.

    Why is Vietnam -despite having a lower GDP/capita level- having a lower poverty-rate?

    There is no such thing as a ‘poverty rate’ that’s of much utility for cross-national comparisons.

    You should have at least the ability to fake a discussion!

    You’re already faking one and your list of questions reads like you were blotto when you composed it.

  134. anon[196] • Disclaimer says:

    just like the rest of the third world – plenty of time to screw, no time to work

  135. Anonymous[152] • Disclaimer says:
    @Another German Reader

    To be honest, other than cotton, I do know what the Hell Egypt exports – apart from the odd item of clothing you might come across, from time to time, when ever have you ever seen, handled or even eaten an authentic Egyptian product?
    Perhaps the figures given by the boosters here are true, but one cannot help wandering that a nation with no visible means of support, a massive import bill, and a burgeoning population is doomed. You simply *CANNOT* have rising incomes without a significant export sector – your oil bill alone, as the population start buying care – will finish you, never mind the bollocks.

    Yes, yes, I know about tourism and the pyramids – and the real and present danger of white tourists getting summarily murdered by Jihadists – as an aside I would never but never visit Egypt or any other black/brown nation, for that matter – but, surely, the cash earned here cannot be sufficient.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    , @Philip Owen
  136. J.Ross says:
    @Almost Missouri

    Almost, he’s moving to Zambia. That’s conviction.

  137. Daniel H says:
    @JohnPlywood

    You sound like someone whose worldview is based on SimCity or World of Warcraft.

    And you sound like a spergy Davos man.

  138. @Art Deco

    You can cite whatever source makes Egypt seem richer than it really is, but by any reasonable standard it’s a poor country.

    Let me ask this another way; if you consider Egypt to be a “middle income country”, what would you consider Mexico to be?

    I was in Egypt recently and I was shocked at the poverty, grime and desperation. The only place I’ve been that was visibly poorer than Egypt was Cambodia.

    • Replies: @anon
    , @Art Deco
  139. anon[197] • Disclaimer says:
    @Johnny Smoggins

    Cairo’s serious problem with lead pollution has been around for years.

    https://www.osti.gov/biblio/20006513-ambient-lead-measurements-cairo-egypt

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4782899/

    Other cities likely have the same problem. Lead has effects on many tissues, including the brain. Probably don’t want to buy any pottery in Egypt.

  140. @JohnPlywood

    Japan will NEVER collapse

    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
  141. Art Deco says:
    @Anonymous

    You simply *CANNOT* have rising incomes without a significant export sector – your oil bill alone, as the population start buying care – will finish you, never mind the bollocks.

    We managed in this country to have handsome economic development at a time when the ratio of exports to domestic product was around 0.05.

    In Egypt, the ratio of exports to nominal gross domestic product is about 0.23. About 58% of their export revenue is derived from merchandise, 42% from services. The merchandise export revenue in 2018 was distributed as follows: manufactures, 51.7%; fuel, 25.9%; food, 16.4%; ores and metals, 4.2%; agricultural raw materials, 1.7%. The service exports were almost entirely composed of travel and transportation services (of which revenue from tourism is a subset). < 2% came from insurance and financial services.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
  142. Art Deco says:
    @Johnny Smoggins

    You can cite whatever source makes Egypt seem richer than it really is, but by any reasonable standard it’s a poor country.

    The standards I cited are those used to assess any place, cross-sectionally or longitudinally. Your beef is with people who produce production statistics for a living. If you think you know better, write to the World Bank and to Maddison and explain to them how it’s done.

  143. MBlanc46 says:
    @RadicalCenter

    Better to let them die of starvation and disease than to have to kill them.

  144. Art Deco says:
    @RadicalCenter

    Egypt isn’t getting much aid. I think what they do get might be in the realm of ‘security assistance’. Egypt’s life expectancy at birth is currently 71 years, a milestone the US passed in the dark age of … 1970. Malnutrition is something of a problem in Egypt

    https://www.unicef.org/egypt/nutrition

    However, it’s not a leading cause of death.

    https://www.cdc.gov/globalhealth/countries/egypt/default.htm

  145. Muggles says:
    @Art Deco

    Re: Egyptian economy.

    Well, the MyPillow guy continues to rave on TV ads about the wonderful “Giza cotton” used in his products. Actually the type of cotton often grown there is long fiber which is considered premium.

    Still, how much cotton can they grow/sell?

    Tourism was and is (to some extent) a major factor in their tourism. For over 3,000 + years! But the terrorism wave there really hurt them. It is a very interesting place to visit. I used to go to Cairo on business and it was a lot of fun, very stimulating. Crowded but safe. Egyptians for the most part are the creme de la creme of the Arab world. Known for their hospitality.

    A fair number of the highly educated ones emigrate to the US or Europe.

    • Replies: @anon
    , @Anonymous
  146. Muggles says:
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    Lots of advice on pronouncing Niger.

    I have heard it with the accent on the last syllable.

    Thus: Nee-JZHER

    Or you can simply say it like the River Niger.

    Oddly, Nigeria is pronounced in a very Anglo way. Probably named after the same river. Of course it was the English, not French, who colonized that. No telling how the locals pronounce it.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  147. Muggles says:
    @JohnPlywood

    >>The other sectors of first world economies include rent and investment. When the population shrinks, these things collapse.

    So yeah, fuck you you infantile little dipshit, you don’t know jack shit about how the fertility crisis is impacting our economies. Japan is going to get raped hard and I’m personally already planning to move to Zambia within the next ten years; as are a lot of really influential and intelligent people.<<

    Yes, Mr. Plywood is surely trolling you/us.

    But if/when you do move to Zambia (have you set up your GoFundMe for that diaspora yet?) make sure you let iSteve know. We'd love to hear about the crowds and progress, and Family Values, etc.

  148. Lagertha says:
    @Cato

    Not just Egypt: every country except: ALL the European countries, Russia, Greece, Georgia, Armenia; 3rd generation USA & Canada/Aus & NZ; Japan, Taiwan. I leave Iceland out since they have been amazingly productive for over 50 years and have a large population wo love their homeland – that is quiete extraordinary because of the weather and lack of sunny days.

  149. Lagertha says:

    * who; quiet

    Here’s another one (very soothing) that some Latino production crew felt the need to make. It surprises me, after 30+ years of flying Icelandair (and stopping over), that Iceland has become so popular. Of course, after a wet day (sunny, if you are lucky) the food and hospitality is very warm and fuzzy – the hot springs are wonderful. Perhaps it is a type of primordial instinct that people, from all over the world, seek in Iceland; a one with nature kind of thing. A record 2.3 million people vacationed there last year!

    Its population is double from the time I was a kid when no one went on vacation to Iceland! In the early days, Scandinavian carriers often had to refuel in Iceland…but my parents always said: “there is nothing there,” but I knew about the horses – it is a horse riding paradise. However, the weather keeps people from wanting to immigrate there – thank goodness!

  150. anon[512] • Disclaimer says:
    @Muggles

    Still, how much cotton can they grow/sell?

    Dunno, but Milo said we all get a share.

  151. Jack D says:
    @Just passing through

    Japan sits under the American nuclear umbrella which protects it from China. Should America unfurl that umbrella the Japanese will have nuclear weapons within months if not days.

    • Replies: @Joe Stalin
    , @Anonymous
  152. @Jack D

    Not only that. Japan was not obverse to using chemical weapons in war against Chinese soldiers in the past.

  153. Anonymous[427] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jack D

    The Japanese with their goofy US imposed constitution are largely kept out of the lucrative defense armaments trade. They are goofy about it to the point where they won’t even allow their retired ex military aircraft to be exported for nonmilitary use: when people wanted to buy the Shin Meiwa four engine flying bots for air firefighting use, they said “we can’t sell you them”.

    So the massive number of engineers needed to design military armaments go to civilian endeavors like entertainment electronics and automotive. This put US conumer businesses at a disadvanage.

    I say we pull that goddamed umbrella and let them rearm with nukes. Scare the shit out of China.

  154. Anonymous[144] • Disclaimer says:
    @Muggles

    Of course, the leader of the 9/11 bombers was a ‘highly educated, skilled Egyptian emigre’.

    • Replies: @Joe Stalin
  155. Anonymous[152] • Disclaimer says:
    @Muggles

    Apparently, the wife of Lord Lugard – a senior British colonial official – coined the name de novo, of what was then simply called ‘British West Africa’.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  156. @Anonymous

    LMAO, and Singapore produces what, exactly?

    Singapore is a credit-consumer economy. About one quarter of their economy involves manufacturing anything. They produce little. Nigeria produces way more than them.

    The only threat to white people is white women’s low birthrates. Immigration had made life easier on white people, especially men. Without immigrants, white people would not only be living in the sewers right now, but white men would have to living with white women. And that’s something no white man wants to do.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
  157. @Anonymous

    You are either confused or a bald faced liar. That never happened and the Fukushima incident wasn’t the result of an earthquake on any fault in Japan.

    You must be thinking of the accusations about the Diablo Canyon nuclear facility in the USA, which are also bald faced lies:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diablo_Canyon_earthquake_vulnerability#Public_controversy

    A nuclear power plant can be safely constructed on any geological fault line.

    The smell of dog breath is emanating from your post.

  158. @Anonymous

    This is what happens when you hand a cat lady a thrift-store Macintish computer from 1995 and tell it to defend it’s way of life. Obviously not having any children doesn’t “free up capital” and no one is saving any money in the developed world. The “investment funds” you speak of Norway and Singapore are the financial equivalents of social security; and one of Norway’s funds is actually a Socialist oil fund.

    Personal saving and investment, in the developed world, has slowed to a trickle.

    Even Japan, the strongest saving nation in the developed world in the 1980s, has had a negative savings rate since 2014.

    This is what the end of the world looks like for you weak anti-natalist woman-worshipping cucks:

  159. Corvinus says:
    @YetAnotherAnon

    “Talking of people changing the language for their political ends, is anyone in the US following the Guardian in changing “global warming” to the more urgent-sounding “global heating” ?”

    Except it’s not based on “political ends”, but rather science. Try to be more informed.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/13/global-heating-more-accurate-to-describe-risks-to-planet-says-key-scientist

  160. Rude awakening for the people who actually believe their country can make it on its own without immigrants:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/i-have-no-idea-what-do-now-south-korean-chinese-firms-screwed-shortage-chinese-migrant

    “I Have No Idea What To Do Now”: South Korean & Japanese Firms Screwed By Shortage Of Chinese Migrant Workers

    People like the millions of Chinese migrant workers who occupy unskilled and skilled jobs in South Korea and Japan. Many companies in agriculture and construction employ young Chinese ‘technical interns’ to compensate for serious labor shortages. These workers effectively form the base of a transnational supply chain. And without workers, the agricultural sector could be in a serious bind as the spring and summer approach.

    Nationalists windbags talk big bullshit about how their country “needs” to keep out immigrants, but up until the Corona scare all these “nationalist” countries still depended upon massive immigrant populations within their borders for labor. Now they’re taking a swift blow to the solar plexus and scrambling for more immigrants, like cockroaches after a light switch is flipped.

    It will be entertaining to watch all this “nationalist” rhetoric die out as immigrant shortages threaten to disrupt entire economies and force the right wing to acknowledge that our societies are already totally destroyed and nonfunctional without immigrants to replace the human beings that our useless, ingrate females failed to produce.

    You right wingers now have to join me in addressing the sole singular issue of our time: the crisis of low birthrates and a practical solution to raise our TFR above 5 children per woman before the year 2027. From now on, any discussion that does not pertain to this is enemy propaganda.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    , @nebulafox
  161. Anonymous[245] • Disclaimer says:
    @JohnPlywood

    Yep, Japan will collapse any decade now!

  162. @Art Deco

    Are remittances from abroad included in that? I know quite a few Egyptians living and working elsewhere, though I’m not clear on how big of senders-home-of-cash they are.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
  163. @Anonymous

    And two of the assassins of Egyptian leader Anwar Sadat were “engineer Atta Teyel Hemeida, 27, a reserve air force officer” and “Mohammed Abdel-Salem Farag, a 27-year-old engineer convicted of leading the plot.”

    https://news.google.com/newspapers?id=Lfo9AAAAIBAJ&sjid=CkkMAAAAIBAJ&pg=3096,3218494&dq=

    • Replies: @nebulafox
  164. @JohnPlywood

    Zambia has taken a turn for the worse recently. Famine even. So not very intelligent, indeed behind the times. There must be more to life than getting drunk at the planters’ club when the electricity is working.

    • Replies: @anon
  165. anon[722] • Disclaimer says:

    I propose a special comment thread, limited to Tiny Crow, John Smallberries and two or more other trolls to be selected via ballot. They would Thunderdome each other for an indefinite period of time. It would be for entertainment purposes only, of course, but by restricting the loonies to one foam-filled comment thread the adults would be able to converse elsewhere.

    Perhaps we should petition Ron Unz?

  166. Art Deco says:
    @Almost Missouri

    As far as I can glean, remittances aren’t a big source of export revenue.

  167. @Anonymous

    The Nile Delta supports one of the world’s most productive horticultural industries. British markets and supermarkets sell Egyptian potatoes at all seaons. Growth seasons are continuous. Egyptian growers I have talked to export tomatoes to the Hudson Bay Company in Canada for example. What Egypt needs to import is field produce. Wheat, sugar, the meat fed on wheat & soya. Egypt is Russia’s biggest customer for grain and soon perhaps for chicken. (Chinese trade relations are not so good).

  168. Art Deco says:
    @JohnPlywood

    Singapore is a credit-consumer economy. About one quarter of their economy involves manufacturing anything. They produce little.

    I have no clue how you got the idea in your head that production of services is something other than production.

    China has an abnormally large industrial sector. China aside, it is atypical for value-added in industry to account for more than about 30% of domestic product unless the country in question has a hypertrophied mining sector. There are about 25 such countries. Some are impoverished (Haiti) or not impoverished but dysfunctional in various ways (Puerto Rico).

    The taxon ‘consumer-credit economy’ does not exist outside of the space between your ears. Consumption occurs in all economies – that’s the point of economic activity. Countries vary in the share of domestic income accounted for by private investment. Some countries rely heavily on foreign direct investment, some do not. The use of ‘credit’ by households and businesses allows both investment and allows parties to redistribute consumption between time periods. Latter-day technology allows such re-allocations with fewer risks and fewer transactions costs.

    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
  169. Art Deco says:
    @JohnPlywood

    Rude awakening for the people who actually believe their country can make it on its own without immigrants:

    Again, the welfare effects of trade in labor manifest in immigration have been studied and enumerated by serious econometricians, foremost among them George Borjas. They’re on the order of 0.1% of gross domestic product each year.

  170. anon[127] • Disclaimer says:
    @Philip Owen

    Don’t tell the King of Zambia that his realm isn’t doing just fine. It’s disrespectful!

  171. nebulafox says:
    @JohnPlywood

    They could try raising wages?

    >Singapore is a credit-consumer economy. About one quarter of their economy involves manufacturing anything. They produce little.

    Singapore is a finance and trading hub: as makes perfect sense given its city-state status and location. Not so different from what London transformed into during the 1980s. Also, Singapore is hardly an example of hardcore immigration restrictionism. The government relies primarily off of immigration from the PRC to keep Singapore decidedly majority Chinese. The subsidies the government offers native citizens do not come close to making up for the increased living costs and structural difficulties of having kids. If you want your people to have families, you need to give them the time and money for it.

    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
  172. nebulafox says:
    @Joe Stalin

    This dynamic is common in the Islamic World. It is seldom the rural peasants who are attracted to jihadist movements. It’s usually declassed, frustrated professionals. You’ll find a lot of 20 or early 30-something guys who studied their asses off in engineering only to end up in a dead-end, underpaid job with a salary constantly undercut by corruption.

    On a broader note, in places like Java (which is NOT the same as Indonesia as a whole: might as well say Bavaria == Germany), conservative Islam tends to gain traction due to the country’s urbanization and the growth of the middle class, not in spite of it. The religious syncretism with pre-Islamic traditions ballyhooed by Western liberals, while not made up, is innately tied into a rural village setting. Once somebody moves to the city and all the social connections are gone, they need a new identity, and globalization has usually made that a more orthodox form of Islam. I cannot speak for places like Egypt, though, where apart from the legacy Coptic minority, it seems that there’s little pre-Islamic tradition to take hold of.

  173. nebulafox says:
    @HammerJack

    China is many things. A third world hellhole, though, it is not. Not anymore by a long shot. And no amount of internal problems is going to reverse that.

    There seems to be a lot of delusions in official foreign policy circles that somehow, someway in the future we can go back to a world where China is not a massive international factor. That’s just not going to happen. We’re back to normal, speaking from the perspective of broad human history: the 150 years where China was a decayed mess is the exception to the rule.

    (As a side note, look at the ludicrous, obsessive idea that Putin is the biggest threat in the world we face, as if he has the same ability to project power and access to the same resources that the USSR of old did. That’s how deeply stuck they are mentally, not least because they desperately *want* Russia as the enemy, and they don’t want China as one. But reality doesn’t care about what you want.)

    • Replies: @HammerJack
  174. @JohnPlywood

    Now that’s an attention-grabbing comment. Not sure you’re right, and the collapses would be very different, but provocative in that uniquely Sailer-comment-section way.

    • Thanks: JohnPlywood
  175. @Art Deco

    I have no clue how you got the idea in your head that production of services is something other than production.

    It produces nothing, A service is a transfer of value. Production is the creation of material things for consumption.

    The taxon ‘consumer-credit economy’ does not exist outside of the space between your ears. Consumption occurs in all economies – that’s the point of economic activity. Countries vary in the share of domestic income accounted for by private investment. Some countries rely heavily on foreign direct investment, some do not. The use of ‘credit’ by households and businesses allows both investment and allows parties to redistribute consumption between time periods. Latter-day technology allows such re-allocations with fewer risks and fewer transactions costs.

    Hilariously wrong. Consumer-credit economies are economies where personal debt is in excess of 50% of GDP. That’s what sets “big dog” countries apart from the third world.

    Time for art deco to buy a bouquet of roses to give to the nearest Vietnamese restaurant owner. Your country could not exist without foreign help.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
  176. @nebulafox

    If you want your people to have families, you need to give them the time and money for it.

    Time and money are the reasons people are having fewer kids. Never before have people had so much free time and money, including in Singapore. Combined with women’s lib, this means fewer relationships, fewer children, and more time spent on stupid shit like hiking, instagram and other leisurely activities.

    In reality, people are never going to voluntarily have kids again. It’s going to require a massive tactical response from the military (or something) to make women reproduce.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  177. Art Deco says:
    @JohnPlywood

    It produces nothing, A service is a transfer of value.

    It’s something done for you that you cannot do for yourself. I pay a plumber, I can use my sink again.

    You really need to get over the idea that you know what you’re talking about; you’re playing the clown on this thread and you haven’t got a clue.

    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
  178. black sea says:

    In reality, people are never going to voluntarily have kids again. It’s going to require a massive tactical response from the military (or something) to make women reproduce.

    Operation Rape and Pillage?

  179. @Art Deco

    It’s something done for you that you cannot do for yourself

    And? That doesn’t make it a production. Your sink, the pipes in it, and the tools the plumber used to tinker with it are good examples of productions. Chances are none of those things were made in this country if they are younger than 30 years.

    Time for Art Deco to produce an apology for calling his daddy a clown.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
  180. @baked georgia

    How much of the soft birth control options offered to the 3rd World are actually used by those of fertile age, especially in their peak fertility?
    Safe to assume not much.
    The only way to fix the problem is with Strict Conditions linked to food aid. Mandatory vasectomies after 2 children or Aid is cut off. The other thing is that outward migration is a relief valve which effectively rewards & strips away consequences from reckless procreation. Options for migration to Europe should be cut off to create a heightened sense of scarcity & the urgent need for sexual control.
    Egypt was already beyond its Carrying Capacity 20-30 years ago so when the crisis arrives it will be brutal. The West must stop creating & enabling an even greater time bomb.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
  181. Art Deco says:
    @JohnPlywood

    And? That doesn’t make it a production. Y

    Yes it does. And that’s why people voluntarily pay for services. I can explain something to you. I cannot comprehend it for you.

    Time for Art Deco to produce an apology for calling his daddy a clown.

    My father ran a business which provided services, for which people willingly paid him. He’d have recognized you as a clown, and been much funnier and more acerbic than I am putting you in your place.

  182. Art Deco says:
    @CrunchyButRealistCon

    Egypt was already beyond its Carrying Capacity 20-30 years ago so when the crisis arrives it will be brutal.

    You’ve made the mistake of taking Paul Ehrlich seriously. Egypt is, absolutely and relatively more affluent than it was when Ehrlich was producing his Malthusian rubbish 50 years ago. Egypt as we speak produces more than enough for export to afford food imports. Given past history, there is every reason to believe their fertility rate will fall to replacement levels.

    • Replies: @CrunchyButRealistCon
  183. Anonymous[234] • Disclaimer says:
    @JohnPlywood

    What!!!?

    Do you mean Bosnian style ‘Rape Camps’?

  184. @Art Deco

    Let’s cut off food aid to Egypt & prevent migrant access to the first world then to see what happens. They can try using the Nile River alone to irrigate-feed over 100 Million.

    Most of the time a Cornucopian tries to discard overpopulation fears as “Malthusian rubbish”, they have an Anti-White ulterior motive. They WANT population growth in the 3rd World because they want those peoples to migrate en masse into the West. This was certainly true of Julian Simon & Barry Commoner. It was also true of Ben Wattenberg & his assistant Jonah Goldberg. We’re seeing the same now with Suketu Mehta & Matthew “One Billion Americans” Yglesias. Their enthusiasm for 3rd World fertility is a guise for using Immigration as a weapon to crowd out the founding stock of Western countries. It’s also a great scam for real estate hustlers & AgriBiz idiots who want to bet everything on massively petrochemical dependent monocultures.

    So nice try, but we know this Ponzi scheme now & its Anti-White motivation

    • Replies: @Art Deco
  185. @nebulafox

    Aside from parts of a few glitzy metropolises on or near the coast, China’s poverty is grinding and horrific.

  186. Art Deco says:
    @CrunchyButRealistCon

    For the umpteenth time in this thread, the overseas aid Egypt receives accounts for about 1% of their gross national income. Cut it off, very little changes. AFAIK, they get no ‘food aid’ at all. They are a food importer. The whole point of international trade is exploiting your comparative advantage. Egypt exports x, y, and z. They import foodstuffs with the foreign exchange earned from exports. Their export mix is delineated above.

    Most of the time a Cornucopian tries to discard overpopulation fears as “Malthusian rubbish”, they have an Anti-White ulterior motive.

    Thanks for the non sequitur. Been an education.

    My ‘motive’, if anybody gives a sh!t, is to take the measure of Egypt’s problems in a cursory sort of way and to report that measure here contra the ample supply of a$$-pulls in this thread, yours included.

    Egypt’s standard of living is not declining – quite the contrary. Women in Egypt have three kids a piece because they aspire to have that many children (https://www.dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/CR25/CR25.pdf). Now, their fertility may be exaggerated if the incremental cost of having children is made opaque by public policy. Land tenure regimes can do that, as can welfare policy. If that’s your problem, you can alter the incentives. Eventually, the place will be cramped enough that expressed preferences will change. It’s close to an iron law of social life in the last two centuries that affluence, non-agricultural occupations, town living, and declining fertility are all associated.

    It’s not difficult to imagine how you can house 20 million people on 300 sq miles with satisfactory private living space for each household. If your typical private dwelling is an apartment or condominium in a six-story building with an alley in back and a breezeway on either side, you can accomplish that. If you locate your manufacturing and warehousing in satellite compounds built on trash land and reachable from the city by bus service or light rail, you can accomplish that. If you ban private passenger cars and have city streets populated with mass transit, delivery trucks, bikes / scooters, and government vehicles, you can accomplish that. The engineering challenge is in provision of water and power and the management of traffic and waste. And, of course, in getting from here to there over time.

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