Much of the conventional wisdom in the Globalist West about COVID-19 has a dangerously all-or-nothing cast of mind: sure, maybe it would have been nice to prevent the virus from ever arriving in America, but that’s impossible and it’s already too late, so doing anything further to limit transmission would just be racism. So, we’re all going to get it, so what’s the point of doing anything to reduce the rate of transmission?
But numbers count, and not just in absolute all or nothing terms, but in relative terms.
Here’s a 2 hour briefing by Dr. Bruce Alyward, the Canadian leader of the World Health Organization’s investigative mission to Wuhan:
iSteve commenter FreddieY sums up Aylward’s case for decelerationism:
Steve, the reason why it’s vitally important with this particular epidemic to slow down transmission is that covid-19 kills by causing the lungs to fill with fluid. If critically ill patients are put on mechanical ventilators, many survive. If they are not kept alive in that way, more of them die.
Therefore the fatality rate with this particular disease depends in large part on whether the number of critically ill people exceeds at any point in time the number of ventilators, special beds, and respiratory therapists.
The supply of those resources is limited. In most countries they are likely to run out, raising the fatality rate.
The slower the rate of transmission, the fewer people need those resources at any single point in time, causing a lower fatality rate.
It’s very likely that the US and other countries do not have enough of these things. They are probably going to run out. There are two main ways to solve this problem: slow down transmission, which reduces demand, or acquire more of those things, increasing supply. China has done both. All countries should be doing both.
The US is doing neither of these things, therefore it is probably going to run out of those resources, which means that the American fatality rate will probably be higher than China’s.
Slowing transmission at any time of year would be helpful, but it would be especially helpful now, the peak of flu season, when ventilators are in shortest supply, because it would delay covid-19 cases until after flu season ends, when more ventilators will be available.
The crucial importance of slowing transmission is explained by Dr. Bruce Aylward, epidemiologist and head of the WHO team which recently returned from China, in the following video in which he describes how China has managed covid-19. This video is the best answer I know to McNeil’s article which you quote above. In fact the video is probably the best single source of information I’ve found about this pandemic, and although it’s very long, I highly recommend it to you: …
People sometimes think that measures have to be 100% effective to be worthwhile. They think, “What’s the point of reducing exposure by only 50% when I still may get infected anyway?”
That’s not how this works. This is a matter of degree. Anything that makes transmission less likely is helpful. We don’t have to eliminate 100% of potential exposure for these measures to help.