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Dr. Aylward on the Need to Slow Transmission
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Much of the conventional wisdom in the Globalist West about COVID-19 has a dangerously all-or-nothing cast of mind: sure, maybe it would have been nice to prevent the virus from ever arriving in America, but that’s impossible and it’s already too late, so doing anything further to limit transmission would just be racism. So, we’re all going to get it, so what’s the point of doing anything to reduce the rate of transmission?

But numbers count, and not just in absolute all or nothing terms, but in relative terms.

Here’s a 2 hour briefing by Dr. Bruce Alyward, the Canadian leader of the World Health Organization’s investigative mission to Wuhan:

iSteve commenter FreddieY sums up Aylward’s case for decelerationism:

Steve, the reason why it’s vitally important with this particular epidemic to slow down transmission is that covid-19 kills by causing the lungs to fill with fluid. If critically ill patients are put on mechanical ventilators, many survive. If they are not kept alive in that way, more of them die.

Therefore the fatality rate with this particular disease depends in large part on whether the number of critically ill people exceeds at any point in time the number of ventilators, special beds, and respiratory therapists.

The supply of those resources is limited. In most countries they are likely to run out, raising the fatality rate.

The slower the rate of transmission, the fewer people need those resources at any single point in time, causing a lower fatality rate.

It’s very likely that the US and other countries do not have enough of these things. They are probably going to run out. There are two main ways to solve this problem: slow down transmission, which reduces demand, or acquire more of those things, increasing supply. China has done both. All countries should be doing both.

The US is doing neither of these things, therefore it is probably going to run out of those resources, which means that the American fatality rate will probably be higher than China’s.

Slowing transmission at any time of year would be helpful, but it would be especially helpful now, the peak of flu season, when ventilators are in shortest supply, because it would delay covid-19 cases until after flu season ends, when more ventilators will be available.

The crucial importance of slowing transmission is explained by Dr. Bruce Aylward, epidemiologist and head of the WHO team which recently returned from China, in the following video in which he describes how China has managed covid-19. This video is the best answer I know to McNeil’s article which you quote above. In fact the video is probably the best single source of information I’ve found about this pandemic, and although it’s very long, I highly recommend it to you: …

People sometimes think that measures have to be 100% effective to be worthwhile. They think, “What’s the point of reducing exposure by only 50% when I still may get infected anyway?”

That’s not how this works. This is a matter of degree. Anything that makes transmission less likely is helpful. We don’t have to eliminate 100% of potential exposure for these measures to help.

 
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  1. There was widespread agreement that Chinese gov numbers about Wuhan infections were drastically underreported.

    It is therefore quite odd mainstream financial journalists and public health authorities are accepting that currently Beijing and Shanghai have 0 or 1 new CV case per day even while Korea, Iran and Italy report 100+ new cases a day.

    There’s a Japanese-Georgia State pre-print that suggests about 900,000 cases just in Wuhan.

    I find the Chinese gov stats just unbelievable. We have single (or married couple) superspreaders from Wuhan cause 1000+ cases in Korea/Diamond Princess/Iran/Italy but the 100-1000x more numerous cases of Wuhan travelers who did not leave China supposedly not causing any infections in major Chinese cities.

    • Replies: @Jesse
    The Chinese numbers are ridiculous. We're expected to believe that their death rate every single day has been 2.1%? That said, everyone is lying. (The South Koreans less than most, maybe because they can blame that weird church/cult for the spread.)

    Now, it might be prudent to play this down, and hopefully there's vast work going on behind the scenes. But the level of trust I'm seeing IRL and on social media, is terrifying. People are saying that they're not stockpiling (!?) because it's no worse than the flu, and it "only" affects the elderly. There's a strong overlap between people cheerfully saying it won't kill the young, and people who threw a fit at Zeke Emanuel and Michael Bloomberg musing that maybe a full round of chemo isn't worth it at 85.
    , @anonymous
    There is the widespread hope that the numbers are under reported. If a lot of mild cases are not detected then the mortality rate would be much lower than 2% and this whole thing can be dismissed as just another severe season of flu. But Aylward in this part does not believe this to be the case: https://youtu.be/-o0q1XMRKYM?t=2819
    , @Colin Wright
    '...I find the Chinese gov stats just unbelievable. We have single (or married couple) superspreaders from Wuhan cause 1000+ cases in Korea/Diamond Princess/Iran/Italy but the 100-1000x more numerous cases of Wuhan travelers who did not leave China supposedly not causing any infections in major Chinese cities.'

    I hate agreeing with Lot, but when he moves away from the Zionist entity, it happens.

    Like here. China definitely has a reputation for manufacturing whatever statistics it thinks best suit its needs.

    So if China says new cases of the virus have plunged, that tells us exactly one thing.

    It would suit China if the rest of the world believed that new cases of the virus have plunged. They may well have in fact done so -- but that would be more or less coincidental.
    , @reiner Tor
    China shut down its entire economy over this, though. While neither Iran nor South Korea did. But yeah, totally possible that they might be hiding massive numbers.
    , @yakushimaru
    I am Chinese living in China in a city not too far away from Shanghai. The difference between Korea and China's cities a few days ago, at least, is that China's steets are much emptier than those of Korea.
    , @Smithsonian_6
    This article from The Observer / Guardian might shed light on that:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/li-zehuajournalist-wouldnt-stay-quiet-covid-19-coronavirus

    Health commission officials also ordered scientists to stop testing, and institutions not to release information.
     
    It doesn't say what 'tests' were stopped, but if it was tests for infection then it would explain the reduction in reported cases.
    , @LondonBob
    No, the Chinese numbers are pretty accurate.
  2. Remarks about China’s scaling up capabilities: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-o0q1XMRKYM&feature=youtu.be&t=2615

    He believes China has counted most cases, there aren’t many mild undetected cases, implying the 2% mortality rate isn’t going down

  3. This sounds like a ringing endorsement of Bill‘s advice three days ago that

    “You want to be infected either early or late, not in the middle. In the middle, the ICUs are full and there are no ventilators available.”

    Obviously, we don’t know exactly when “middle” will transition to “late”, and in any case, once you are past “early”, it’s no longer in your control when you get infected. So from a personal point of view, getting exposed early in a low infection region seems optimal.

    Obviously, from a epidemic management point of view, a long thin middle is better than a short fat one, or “decelerationism” as Steve calls it.

    • Replies: @Clyde
    You can use oxygen tanks if there is a shortage of ventilators. Also oxygen concentrator machines are very, very, very common in the US. They output about 94% O2. Get Corona virus patients hooked up to these for half the hours in a day or all day. Corona virus kills you via pneumonia and lung failure. Oxygen for days or a week will get them over the worst part.

    Oxygen therapy working for coronavirus patient, Seoul says ...
    https://www.breitbart.com/news/oxygen-therapy-working-for-coronavirus-patient-seoul-says
    Feb 14, 2020 · Feb. 14 (UPI) — Oxygen therapy has been effective in the treatment of a critically ill patient infected with the new strain of coronavirus in South Korea, local health authorities said Friday. Jeong Eun-kyeong, director of Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said one of the remaining 21 COVID-19 patients in the country was still ...
     
    , @James Speaks
    Your analysis assumes infection/disease/recovery bestows immunity upon the patient.
    , @yakushimaru
    This early phase does not really exist.

    In Wuhan, around Jan 15, the clinics were becoming overwhelmed like overnight. Before Jan 15, you might count the early phase as being the two weeks before, but nobody much noticed it even most of the doctors and nurses didn't much notice.

    You cannot intentionally fall into the "early phase".
  4. The biggest scandal/horror show here is that the CDC has totally booted the distribution of Corona -Virus test kits. 14 days ago it sent out a huge batch of unusable ones. Thus, only 400 or so people in the US have been tested.
    I am laying this one on CD affirmative action policies that I can guess at from 1500 miles away. Women, gays and minorities, hell yeah! Trans whatevers too.
    ____________

    https://abcnews.go.com/International/massive-coronavirus-testing-program-south-korea-underscores-nimble/story?id=69226222
    Why South Korea may have more corona virus cases than the US
    South Korea had tested 66,652 people as of Thursday afternoon.

    SEOUL, South Korea — Global health experts say the speed and scope of South Korea’s novel coronavirus diagnostic capability exhibit impressive and significant lab capabilities that no other countries, including the U.S., can match at the moment.

    South Korea had tested a total of 66,652 people for the COVID-19 coronavirus virus as of 4 p.m. local time Thursday, whereas Japan had reported administering roughly 1,890 tests and the U.S. only 445. The huge discrepancy compared to other countries reflects how quickly South Korea’s numbers have been rising, experts say.

    The total number of confirmed cases so far in South Korea is 1,766, up 505 from the day before. Of the 66,00 people who have been tested, more than 25,000 are still awaiting lab results.

    MORE: Fear grips Daegu, South Korea, amid coronavirus
    More than 10,000 people a day are being tested around the clock, propelled by a sense of concern that the virus may spread outside of Daegu area, where around 80 percent of all confirmed cases have been found.

    “This week is crucial for us in determining whether we have successfully dealt with COVID-19,” South Korea Prime Minister Chung Sye-Kyun said.

    The tests are being run at 79 designated health centers, in addition to authorized private hospitals and public health labs across the country.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    Don't worry a British lab in Northern Ireland claims to have developed a new super fast and accurate test.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-team-develops-four-hour-coronavirus-test-dfmfp78bk

    Unlike the articles the media love about some Israeli company developing a miracle cure, this might actually be true. Brits, not Jews, to the rescue!

    , @dearieme
    "I am laying this one on CD affirmative action policies that I can guess at from 1500 miles away."

    I have no idea whether you are right. I do, however, agree with your implication that hiring on any criterion other than merit is inviting trouble.
  5. @Almost Missouri
    This sounds like a ringing endorsement of Bill's advice three days ago that

    "You want to be infected either early or late, not in the middle. In the middle, the ICUs are full and there are no ventilators available."
     
    Obviously, we don't know exactly when "middle" will transition to "late", and in any case, once you are past "early", it's no longer in your control when you get infected. So from a personal point of view, getting exposed early in a low infection region seems optimal.

    Obviously, from a epidemic management point of view, a long thin middle is better than a short fat one, or "decelerationism" as Steve calls it.

    You can use oxygen tanks if there is a shortage of ventilators. Also oxygen concentrator machines are very, very, very common in the US. They output about 94% O2. Get Corona virus patients hooked up to these for half the hours in a day or all day. Corona virus kills you via pneumonia and lung failure. Oxygen for days or a week will get them over the worst part.

    Oxygen therapy working for coronavirus patient, Seoul says …
    https://www.breitbart.com/news/oxygen-therapy-working-for-coronavirus-patient-seoul-says
    Feb 14, 2020 · Feb. 14 (UPI) — Oxygen therapy has been effective in the treatment of a critically ill patient infected with the new strain of coronavirus in South Korea, local health authorities said Friday. Jeong Eun-kyeong, director of Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said one of the remaining 21 COVID-19 patients in the country was still …

    • Thanks: Almost Missouri
  6. @Lot
    There was widespread agreement that Chinese gov numbers about Wuhan infections were drastically underreported.

    It is therefore quite odd mainstream financial journalists and public health authorities are accepting that currently Beijing and Shanghai have 0 or 1 new CV case per day even while Korea, Iran and Italy report 100+ new cases a day.

    There’s a Japanese-Georgia State pre-print that suggests about 900,000 cases just in Wuhan.

    I find the Chinese gov stats just unbelievable. We have single (or married couple) superspreaders from Wuhan cause 1000+ cases in Korea/Diamond Princess/Iran/Italy but the 100-1000x more numerous cases of Wuhan travelers who did not leave China supposedly not causing any infections in major Chinese cities.

    The Chinese numbers are ridiculous. We’re expected to believe that their death rate every single day has been 2.1%? That said, everyone is lying. (The South Koreans less than most, maybe because they can blame that weird church/cult for the spread.)

    Now, it might be prudent to play this down, and hopefully there’s vast work going on behind the scenes. But the level of trust I’m seeing IRL and on social media, is terrifying. People are saying that they’re not stockpiling (!?) because it’s no worse than the flu, and it “only” affects the elderly. There’s a strong overlap between people cheerfully saying it won’t kill the young, and people who threw a fit at Zeke Emanuel and Michael Bloomberg musing that maybe a full round of chemo isn’t worth it at 85.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    South Korea's death rate has been significantly lower at around 0.5%. South Korea's figures are the outlier so far, not China's.
  7. 4 to 6 US cases now of “unknown origin.” All in the SF to Seattle corridor.

    They were not in Asia/Italy and don’t remember having contact with anyone recently in Asia/Italy.

    Whoever gave it to these people probably gave it to others.

    Kirkland WA nursing home case confirmed per local news.

    1 death so far suggests 50 US cases as of 1-2 weeks ago.

    • Replies: @Lot
    Seattle Times on the Kirkland outbreak

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/coronavirus-death-seattle-washington-state/

    52 staff and residents have symptoms in a facility with 2 confirmed cases.

    First US death was in a hospital in Kirkland.
  8. China’s 1000 bed hospitals are mostly just feeding oxygen in through the nose. This is much more scalable and there is some evidence it is more effective than a ventilator for coronavirus.

    • Replies: @FreddieY
    You wrote:

    China’s 1000 bed hospitals are mostly just feeding oxygen in through the nose. This is much more scalable and there is some evidence it is more effective than a ventilator for coronavirus.
     
    Thank you for adding this. Clyde also wrote about oxygen. When I posted yesterday I hadn't realized that the WHO-China Joint Mission's final report, which Dr. Aylward is previewing to some extent in the video, had been published the previous day. If I had known this I would have linked the report yesterday along with the video. I'll link it at the bottom of this post.

    I just read the final report and found the following sentences about supplemental oxygen vs. ventilation:


    Severe cases are defined as tachypnoea (≧30 breaths/ min) or oxygen saturation ≤93% at rest, or PaO2/FIO2 <300 mmHg. Critical cases are defined as respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation, shock or other organ failure that requires intensive care. About a quarter of severe and critical cases require mechanical ventilation while the remaining 75% require only oxygen supplementation. [boldface mine]
     
    Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

    https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

  9. On the other hand, you can also offload this by having less smokers/old people get infected. Or infect them deliberately to fuck ’em over, their call really.

    Younger, and healthy individuals will rarely die from it anyway, need far less treatment, not even going to hospital

  10. anonymous[375] • Disclaimer says:
    @Lot
    There was widespread agreement that Chinese gov numbers about Wuhan infections were drastically underreported.

    It is therefore quite odd mainstream financial journalists and public health authorities are accepting that currently Beijing and Shanghai have 0 or 1 new CV case per day even while Korea, Iran and Italy report 100+ new cases a day.

    There’s a Japanese-Georgia State pre-print that suggests about 900,000 cases just in Wuhan.

    I find the Chinese gov stats just unbelievable. We have single (or married couple) superspreaders from Wuhan cause 1000+ cases in Korea/Diamond Princess/Iran/Italy but the 100-1000x more numerous cases of Wuhan travelers who did not leave China supposedly not causing any infections in major Chinese cities.

    There is the widespread hope that the numbers are under reported. If a lot of mild cases are not detected then the mortality rate would be much lower than 2% and this whole thing can be dismissed as just another severe season of flu. But Aylward in this part does not believe this to be the case:

  11. anonymous[254] • Disclaimer says:

    duplicate, delete

  12. Virus Corona is not as scary as The Invisible Man, which will probably be the latest bomb out of Wokelywood. Instead of a poignant tale of a man trapped in the horror of invisibility it’s about his abused yet empowered wife played by that annoying Handmaiden chick from the Kavanaugh Show. Novel plot device : her detective friend is a black single dad. Maybe it should be titled The Invisible Middle-Aged White Perp.

  13. The most important thing is proving Trump and Deplorables wrong. Besides, it’s mostly older Whites who will die. So bonus. Plus, racist!

    Our rulers are clowns. Not even Caligula level competent.

    • Replies: @Hail

    The most important thing is proving Trump and Deplorables wrong
     
    In the last days of February, including this the hallowed Leap Day, I am starting to sense COVID19 has turned a corner in US coverage/commentary. COVID19 as anti-Trump media sensation. Maybe it won't fully pan out, but it's moving that way.

    (Imagine if a sneering, hostile media and elite class had gone to all-influenza-all-the-time coverage during the 1957 influenza pandemic, blaming Eisenhower personally; imagine Eisenhower were ultimately impeached and removed for incompetence and possibly treason, for failure to stop tens of thousands from dying. That would be roughly comparable.)

    , @Hypnotoad666
    Last Week: Trump imposing travel restrictions is a xenophobic, white supremacist plot to exploit coronavirus.

    This Week: Trump is not taking enough action so any worsening of the outbreak is his fault.

    Sadly, the MSM coverage of everything is driven solely by a desire to tell an Orange Man Bad narrative. People in the real world need to simply write off the MSM as noise and get on with making decisions based on critical thinking and real independent data sources.

  14. @Lot
    4 to 6 US cases now of “unknown origin.” All in the SF to Seattle corridor.

    They were not in Asia/Italy and don’t remember having contact with anyone recently in Asia/Italy.

    Whoever gave it to these people probably gave it to others.

    Kirkland WA nursing home case confirmed per local news.

    1 death so far suggests 50 US cases as of 1-2 weeks ago.

    https://twitter.com/TedLandK5/status/1233860706178490369

    Seattle Times on the Kirkland outbreak

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/coronavirus-death-seattle-washington-state/

    52 staff and residents have symptoms in a facility with 2 confirmed cases.

    First US death was in a hospital in Kirkland.

  15. That might-as-well reasoning was also Obama’s explanation (from his færycloud as “a professor of Constitutional Law”) for refusing to enforce laws regarding immigration and potsmoking. Somehow it never applied to other things like white collar crime or gun ownership.

  16. I have watched the first half of the video and it is pretty interesting, but the emphasis is mostly on the collective efforts of the Chinese health service to meet the challenge of the viral epidemic with a massive mobilization of resources, even to the extent of repurposing entire major hospitals in this large city of 10 million people.

    This is the very opposite of the American way of doing things. It is communism in action. What we should do is leave it to the free market. Encourage our health care companies to sell new supplementary insurance policies especially for the coronavirus to meet the demand, and let those companies compete in the open market to see who can deliver the most cost effective, popular, and profitable solutions.

    Similarly, we pay the highest drug prices in the world for a reason, that the drug companies invest huge amounts in research to bring us the best drugs in the world. They should not need any encouragement to compete to become first to market with an effective vaccine for this scourge, since the profits to be made by the winner will be vast and deserved.

    We don’t need Big Government coming between Americans and their doctors and their insurance companies. Let this thing take care of itself. In God we trust.

    • Troll: utu
    • Replies: @anon
    http://newnation.sg/wp-content/uploads/fall-asleep-gif.gif
  17. Anytime anyone says a government ‘can’t do that’ they’re wrong and their very intense need to tell you the government ‘can’t do that’ is proof. If it can’t be done, what are they so concerned about?

    The government can take your children from you, it can arrest you, it can coerce you to all kinds of things, many governments still maintain the right to conscription. The problem is we’ve been living under managerial politicians so long who gave it all away to neoliberal ideals after the fall of the Soviet Union that the current paradigm, which is exquisitely deliberate and designed to service the short-term greed and indulgence of the wealthy, that the mantra of TINA (There is no alternative) has triumphed.

    Everytime there has been a crisis in Europe all the supposed rules the EU operates under go out the window to deal with it. When the banking crisis hit all kinds of rules were ignored in order to make sure the bankers got their bets back with their expected winnings no matter how many countries were then delivered two or more lost generations. Many of the rules are just outright ignored by certain countries. (France admirably ignores many of the EMU rules since it would hurt it’s economy and workers if it didn’t and makes no efforts to bring itself back into line.)

    During the financial crisis when Italians were driving over the border into Switzerland to deposit gold and cash in Swiss banks, Schengen was ignored and Switzerland imposed checks on cars coming in. There is lots of leeway in Schengen anyway for temporary border restrictions such as those seen during the migrant march in 2015/2016, Denmark and some other countries effectively suspended Schengen for short periods. The mantra of the ECB has been ‘whatever it takes’ to protect the bankers from the consequences of their actions. Sadly ‘whatever it takes’ doesn’t apply to pandemics.

    It’s absolutely crazy that you buy a ticket for a direct flight from Milan to New York still. All direct flights from Milan outside Italy and particularly to major cities in other European countries should have been shut down last week, they definitely need to be shut down now. It may already be spreading in Rome. Ironically it may mean this years Eurovision song contest will be cancelled. (It’s slogan this year is ‘Open Up’)

    One incident that hasn’t been discussed much is a Danish man who appears to have contracted Covid-19 in Munich from an Italian man at a conference and the case of the Google employee who got it in Zurich. So you may have community spread in Munich and Zurich now. The reality is only a small number of people travel between countries in Europe and only a short period of time in reality is needed to weather this thing potentially burning out. It’s a disgrace that they can’t even ban flights from Milan or impose some border checks with Italy.

    I’ll point out ICUs are already typically at capacity at any given time. China had something of an advantage here since there is such a high risk of these events happening in China that they have built a lot of them for potential flu or corona outbreaks. There is no spare capacity for respiratory pandemics elsewhere.

    • Replies: @Western
    I think the US is making everyone who who gets on a plane to the US in Italy and South Korea to be checked for the virus now. That is still not a ban but better than nothing I guess.
    , @Me
    I have a trip to Milan planned, no joke, that I have been dreaming about for YEARS

    And yeah, I'm going.
  18. Iwasaki Lab at Yale Medical School

    @VirusesImmunity

    is trying really hard to get out the word that ambient humidification is a big key to survival after becoming infected with a respiratory virus.

    They did a 2019 study that found this. Seems like the easiest thing for everyone to do. Simple as a humidifier or a pot of boiling water.

    • Replies: @Me
    When I got H1N1, I got so sick, I couldn't breathe...so I grabbed a large pot and boiled water, and sat on the kitchen floor inhaling for several hours.

    That's why I'm spending 30 minutes to an hour everyday in the Sauna in preparation to fight off Coronavirus
  19. Anonymous[186] • Disclaimer says:

    The ACE2 issue is driving this train. But there is a massive media coverup going on. And big surprise it’s blowing up in their face.

    Each day that passes without catastrophe bizarrely makes Trump look like a hero.

    Weeks go by and the numbers mysteriously do not explode across the fruited plain. Meanwhile the media is screaming “Wuhan nightmare is coming to your hometown!” Real soon now.

    In the USA all efforts should be concentrated where East Asian genetics are clustered.

    So Hawaii, Bay Area, pockets of LA, Houston, NYC etc.

    Hopefully this is being done behind the scenes. PC enforcement in the media means that this is not being discussed anywhere in public by any authorities.

    Think we can conclude Trump election did not move the overton window on the race issue in America.

    • Replies: @anon
    This is like the Ebola scare all over again. Instantly politicized with supporters of the president saying there's nothing to fear.
  20. @Almost Missouri
    This sounds like a ringing endorsement of Bill's advice three days ago that

    "You want to be infected either early or late, not in the middle. In the middle, the ICUs are full and there are no ventilators available."
     
    Obviously, we don't know exactly when "middle" will transition to "late", and in any case, once you are past "early", it's no longer in your control when you get infected. So from a personal point of view, getting exposed early in a low infection region seems optimal.

    Obviously, from a epidemic management point of view, a long thin middle is better than a short fat one, or "decelerationism" as Steve calls it.

    Your analysis assumes infection/disease/recovery bestows immunity upon the patient.

    • Replies: @e
    Dr. What's His Name, the short guy who is the infectious disease and HIV specialist was asked today if patients who had the illness could recover and get the illness again. He said without hesitation "No." I took that to mean the rumors were just that, rumors.
  21. Anonymous[103] • Disclaimer says:

    Strain on hospital infrastructure will be not be such a huge issue me thinks.

    1/ Children are not getting sick. Almost not at all. (extremely unusual for a corona virus)

    2/ USA just doesn’t have very many elderly East Asians. (ACE2 issue is the driver here no matter how taboo some want it to be)

    3/ USA just doesn’t have many downscale East Asians. (Theory about west coast homeless being a hotbed doesn’t compute because of lack of ACE2 receptor cells in the American homeless community.)

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    And what if the ACE2 theory doesn't work out?
    , @charlie
    The ACE-2 Theory was very applicable to SARS.

    There is some emerging genetic evidence that the virus can use a different receptor to get inside cells.

    The racial based ACE-2 distinctions probably aren't enough -- but smokers and people living in areas with heavy air pollution do have MUCH higher ACE-2 expressions.

    In Guangdong, they did around 300,0000 PCR test and only .05 showed evidence of the virus. Based on that number, they were testing everyone with a cold who came in. Pretty good evidence (if you believe the numbers) that it isn't that widespread. That said what is usual is the course of the disease; the viral loads may not be enough to show up on PCR tests one day but two days later yes. You'd had to wait for antibody based tests to see how much exposure in the population.

    But back to ACE-2, my personal theory is this has been globally circulating since November, but you're not seeing enough cases of viral pneumonia (lack of ace-2?) in the US to show up in the stats.
  22. @Anonymous
    Strain on hospital infrastructure will be not be such a huge issue me thinks.

    1/ Children are not getting sick. Almost not at all. (extremely unusual for a corona virus)

    2/ USA just doesn't have very many elderly East Asians. (ACE2 issue is the driver here no matter how taboo some want it to be)

    3/ USA just doesn't have many downscale East Asians. (Theory about west coast homeless being a hotbed doesn't compute because of lack of ACE2 receptor cells in the American homeless community.)

    And what if the ACE2 theory doesn’t work out?

    • Replies: @Lot
    It already has been disproved in its strong version. Italy is at 1100 confirmed cases and France hit 100 today.
  23. Hail says: • Website
    @Whiskey
    The most important thing is proving Trump and Deplorables wrong. Besides, it's mostly older Whites who will die. So bonus. Plus, racist!

    Our rulers are clowns. Not even Caligula level competent.

    The most important thing is proving Trump and Deplorables wrong

    In the last days of February, including this the hallowed Leap Day, I am starting to sense COVID19 has turned a corner in US coverage/commentary. COVID19 as anti-Trump media sensation. Maybe it won’t fully pan out, but it’s moving that way.

    (Imagine if a sneering, hostile media and elite class had gone to all-influenza-all-the-time coverage during the 1957 influenza pandemic, blaming Eisenhower personally; imagine Eisenhower were ultimately impeached and removed for incompetence and possibly treason, for failure to stop tens of thousands from dying. That would be roughly comparable.)

    • Replies: @Anon7
    I've been thinking the same thing. What if the techniques learned and used for the last three years in the Destroy Trump media campaign have been turned to an alternative purpose, that of causing enough panic to create a bad recession in which millions are laid off due to (orchestrated) market uncertainty. Anything to destroy Trump.

    Of course, it's possible that if this is tried, and the Covid-19 virus turns out to be mostly a dud compared with the flu, then people might see through their ploy. I suppose that's wishful thinking.
  24. @Lot
    There was widespread agreement that Chinese gov numbers about Wuhan infections were drastically underreported.

    It is therefore quite odd mainstream financial journalists and public health authorities are accepting that currently Beijing and Shanghai have 0 or 1 new CV case per day even while Korea, Iran and Italy report 100+ new cases a day.

    There’s a Japanese-Georgia State pre-print that suggests about 900,000 cases just in Wuhan.

    I find the Chinese gov stats just unbelievable. We have single (or married couple) superspreaders from Wuhan cause 1000+ cases in Korea/Diamond Princess/Iran/Italy but the 100-1000x more numerous cases of Wuhan travelers who did not leave China supposedly not causing any infections in major Chinese cities.

    ‘…I find the Chinese gov stats just unbelievable. We have single (or married couple) superspreaders from Wuhan cause 1000+ cases in Korea/Diamond Princess/Iran/Italy but the 100-1000x more numerous cases of Wuhan travelers who did not leave China supposedly not causing any infections in major Chinese cities.’

    I hate agreeing with Lot, but when he moves away from the Zionist entity, it happens.

    Like here. China definitely has a reputation for manufacturing whatever statistics it thinks best suit its needs.

    So if China says new cases of the virus have plunged, that tells us exactly one thing.

    It would suit China if the rest of the world believed that new cases of the virus have plunged. They may well have in fact done so — but that would be more or less coincidental.

    • Replies: @yakushimaru
    What is the point of hiding numbers?

    Does China somehow want the world economy to crash? How is that going to be helpful to CCP or China?

    And did anybody here notice the virus/disease development in India? It is extremely a nothing burger. How is that possible? Is that also just a lie? Does anybody remember that ridiculous treatment of a patient in Nepal? What happened after? I believe it is more than two weeks now. Nothing much happened in Nepal? How?

    Just have some faith in the common human goodness. I think. It will do all of us some good.
  25. @Steve Sailer
    And what if the ACE2 theory doesn't work out?

    It already has been disproved in its strong version. Italy is at 1100 confirmed cases and France hit 100 today.

    • Agree: Smithsonian_6
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    Plus the situation in Iran, or even the Italian Patient One, who is 38 years old, but in intensive care.
    , @Bert
    The strong version is also suspect because of the illogic of inferring resistance to infection based on Non-East-Asian populations having lower frequencies of alleles associated with high ACE2. The genetic processes of recombination will ensure that a fraction of the Non-East-Asian population will have ACE2 genotypes equivalent to those of East-Asians, and this fraction will presumably be as susceptible to infection as East-Asians are.

    If ACE2 is important for infection, the crucial question is whether the fraction of Non-East-Asians with genotypes like East-Asians is small enough to reduce the R0 to a level at which contact tracing and selective quarantine are enough to stop the epidemic. If not, then the Chinese-style lockdown would be required.

    The outcome depends on quantitative measures that are as yet unknown, but to call the epidemic a media hoax is not responsible at this point because it undermines public cooperation that may well be needed.

  26. Helpless child “refugees” deployed, by our “ally” Erdogan, to the Greek border, are attempting to murder police by immolation.


    Turkish buses are giving “refugees” a lift from the camp to the border for free. They all have proper Turkish passports.
    Are we going to take sovereignty seriously, or are we going to embrace pathogenic accelerationism? A system which refuses to defend its borders is a system which will run out of beds and respirators.

    • Replies: @Hail
    I am going to be so bold as to say this "Migrant Crisis 2020" is a much bigger story than COVID19. By which I mean, more important.

    Reports emerging that a lot of the migrants that have been launched into Europe by Erdogan are Subsaharans, and are colluding with local Ethnomasochist-wackos and Merkelists, creating staged propaganda to put pressure on countries to lift the gates (again).

    Europe can easily survive, and has survived, epidemics much worse than the relatively mild COVID19. Can it survive the World's Most Important Graph?

    , @The Wild Geese Howard
    Weapons free...light 'em up!!!!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uL5JJ7JRA4

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhJf8toRNog

  27. Dr. Aylward on the Need to Slow Transmission

    I was able not only to slow transmission, but to reverse it. Unfortunately, it was in my 2005 5-speed rice rocket sedan, which now runs fine, but only backwards. It’s on the mechanic’s lot waiting for a replacement.

  28. @Jonathan Mason
    I have watched the first half of the video and it is pretty interesting, but the emphasis is mostly on the collective efforts of the Chinese health service to meet the challenge of the viral epidemic with a massive mobilization of resources, even to the extent of repurposing entire major hospitals in this large city of 10 million people.

    This is the very opposite of the American way of doing things. It is communism in action. What we should do is leave it to the free market. Encourage our health care companies to sell new supplementary insurance policies especially for the coronavirus to meet the demand, and let those companies compete in the open market to see who can deliver the most cost effective, popular, and profitable solutions.

    Similarly, we pay the highest drug prices in the world for a reason, that the drug companies invest huge amounts in research to bring us the best drugs in the world. They should not need any encouragement to compete to become first to market with an effective vaccine for this scourge, since the profits to be made by the winner will be vast and deserved.

    We don't need Big Government coming between Americans and their doctors and their insurance companies. Let this thing take care of itself. In God we trust.

  29. This guy (read the whole tweet thread) says that Iran really is imploding this time as a result of Corona, unlike the “Green Revolution,” or all the other times Iran was supposed to implode. Big (and portentious for such as ourselves) if true.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    Read an article from the lone British journalist in Tehran, Iran has shutdown, not imploded. Zionist wishful thinking.
  30. @Whiskey
    The most important thing is proving Trump and Deplorables wrong. Besides, it's mostly older Whites who will die. So bonus. Plus, racist!

    Our rulers are clowns. Not even Caligula level competent.

    Last Week: Trump imposing travel restrictions is a xenophobic, white supremacist plot to exploit coronavirus.

    This Week: Trump is not taking enough action so any worsening of the outbreak is his fault.

    Sadly, the MSM coverage of everything is driven solely by a desire to tell an Orange Man Bad narrative. People in the real world need to simply write off the MSM as noise and get on with making decisions based on critical thinking and real independent data sources.

    • Agree: Almost Missouri
  31. Hail says: • Website
    @J.Ross
    Helpless child "refugees" deployed, by our "ally" Erdogan, to the Greek border, are attempting to murder police by immolation.
    https://twitter.com/Sotiridimp/status/1233801843920293890
    Turkish buses are giving "refugees" a lift from the camp to the border for free. They all have proper Turkish passports.
    Are we going to take sovereignty seriously, or are we going to embrace pathogenic accelerationism? A system which refuses to defend its borders is a system which will run out of beds and respirators.

    I am going to be so bold as to say this “Migrant Crisis 2020” is a much bigger story than COVID19. By which I mean, more important.

    Reports emerging that a lot of the migrants that have been launched into Europe by Erdogan are Subsaharans, and are colluding with local Ethnomasochist-wackos and Merkelists, creating staged propaganda to put pressure on countries to lift the gates (again).

    Europe can easily survive, and has survived, epidemics much worse than the relatively mild COVID19. Can it survive the World’s Most Important Graph?

    • Replies: @Clyde

    I am going to be so bold as to say this “Migrant Crisis 2020” is a much bigger story than COVID19. By which I mean, more important.
     
    Virus outbreaks come and go. Migrants come but they never go. Migrants = permanent migraines. Illegal immigrants are very hard to deport for x number of reasons. Even illegal alien criminals are difficult to capture and deport, which is 1000% crazy. And more crazy is that 90% of the crimes illegals commit are within their own ethnic community. Example is illegal alien child rapist Jose X. He is not raping American children. He is raping, robbing, assaulting within his community.
    You would think their co-ethnics would rally to have these maggots deported back home. Never happens.
  32. Anonymous[244] • Disclaimer says:

    And what if the ACE2 theory doesn’t work out?

    Then the Wuhan catastrophe should replicate in any cities with the same medical hygiene levels.

    But we are six weeks into this calamity (since export to the world) and China remains the dramatic outlier.

    The truth is the ACE2 theory is panning out. The mass transportation leaked spreaders in January should’ve poisoned the entire developed world. The air traffic alone out of china in the crucial early days was the perfect Armageddon disease vector. Those people should’ve infected many on those thousands of flights and then those seeds should’ve sprouted virus hell pits in each urban destination.

    But it didn’t happen.

    So I suppose a radical mutation of the virus might still change the game. But for now I am hugely relieved. ACE2 theory is working and there is reason to believe it’s here to stay: there is evidence that East Asian lungs have adapted to intense corona outbreaks with a tradeoff similar to black sickle cell adaptation.

    Bottom line is East Asians have evolved slightly different lung structures and we are likely only understanding this phenomenon now because China has been closed off us for so long.

    • Replies: @Hail
    Assuming for argument's sake that people East Asia do get the COVID19 virus/fly at a higher rate than us, the other possibilities:

    - Higher smoking rate, and
    - Air pollution. These places have had significantly higher levels of it for a long time.

    So there is a potential difference between "people in East Asia are more affected" and "racial East Asians are more affected." And of course all three could contribute (genetics, smoking, air pollution), and other things, for an individual's proclivity to get the virus. There is no reason to assume all the eggs are in one basket.

    , @reiner Tor
    The ACE2 thing is poorly understood even by the few specialists who study it in depth, but enthusiastic HBD commenters will keep jumping on it and build castles of air based on it.

    Just to inject a little realism into the story.

    1) In China the epidemic likely started last November. The first death occurred on January 11, so more than six weeks later.

    2) Within Hubei province, the epidemic quickly overwhelmed hospitals, resulting in a very high mortality rate.

    3) The rest of China shows significantly lower mortality rates.

    4) Most deaths in China are among the elderly, and 80% of the cases in China are mild as well.

    5) The Italian “Patient One” is in intensive care. He’s a 38-year-old otherwise healthy man. He’d probably be dead in Hubei, where hospitals are overwhelmed and they don’t have the capacity to provide intensive care to patients. So yeah, the majority of cases in Europe are mild (same as in China), but there are some strange cases of relatively young and healthy people getting inexplicably sick.

    6) The Iranian female soccer player is another example of a young (in her case 22) and healthy person getting into critical condition (and in her case, dying, probably due to the horrible conditions in Iranian hospitals).

    So far there’s no evidence at all that the epidemic was any different in China than elsewhere.

    As to feeling relieved, your personal survival is very likely. We can all get unlucky, but most likely almost all the commenters here are going to survive this. It’s not the Great Pestilence. Since children are unaffected, we don’t have to worry about them, which is certainly a great relief to me.

    , @Smithsonian_6
    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

    No, the epidemic is following the same path outside China as it did inside, we are just 4 weeks behind. Look at the numbers.
  33. Sadly, the MSM coverage of everything is driven solely by a desire to tell an Orange Man Bad narrative.

    Sadly this is true. Trump is like someone’s elderly uncle who gets up to make a speech at a same-sex wedding reception. He has been given a few tips on what to say that would be in line with the culture of today’s young people, but still manages to offend everyone by mentioning homos and bull dykes, or would offend them, except that everyone is already a bit tipsy and no one is paying any attention.

    Trump says that the first person that died of corona virus on US soil, was “a wonderful woman”, but then spins on a dime to say that it was a man. A wonderful man, presumably. Well, with all this gender fluidity these days, who cares. In a multiple choice situation and politician has a 50% chance of getting the pronoun right.

    It was a bit the same as that heroic dog that appeared on stage with Trump and was patted on the head by Pence. Maybe it was a boy, or maybe it was a bitch. Maybe it was the same dog, or maybe it was a body double. Who cares? Dogs are all animals. Who cares about the sex of the turkeys that were pardoned at Thanksgiving as long as it was a good photo op?

    The fact is that the people who get sick with the virus will be cared for in thousands of communities across America, with thousands of public health departments referring to phone apps and the CDC web site for correct procedures.

    The CDC already has an app called Solve The Outbreak in which you can play a game and decide:

    Do you quarantine the village? Interview people who are sick? Run more lab tests? The better your answers, the higher your score – and the quicker you’ll climb the ranks to become a decorated Disease Detective. In level 1, you’ll start as a Trainee and earn badges by solving scenarios — with the goal of earning the top rank: Disease Detective.

    Unlock Level 2 by mastering all the 12 outbreaks of Level 1. Then earn honors by solving new and more challenging scenarios. Earn recognitions like Surveillance and Treatment Honors.

    https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=gov.cdc.sto&hl=en_US

    Many will be paid for by Medicare and Medicaid, some by insurance, some people will die, some will file for bankruptcy due to medical bills. State legislatures may get into the act at some point to close schools, if that becomes necessary.

    Nothing that the White House does will make the slightest bit of difference, no matter whose senile uncle is proposing the toast.

    The media should leave Trump alone, stop reporting on his tweets, and get back to proper reporting.

  34. @Lot
    There was widespread agreement that Chinese gov numbers about Wuhan infections were drastically underreported.

    It is therefore quite odd mainstream financial journalists and public health authorities are accepting that currently Beijing and Shanghai have 0 or 1 new CV case per day even while Korea, Iran and Italy report 100+ new cases a day.

    There’s a Japanese-Georgia State pre-print that suggests about 900,000 cases just in Wuhan.

    I find the Chinese gov stats just unbelievable. We have single (or married couple) superspreaders from Wuhan cause 1000+ cases in Korea/Diamond Princess/Iran/Italy but the 100-1000x more numerous cases of Wuhan travelers who did not leave China supposedly not causing any infections in major Chinese cities.

    China shut down its entire economy over this, though. While neither Iran nor South Korea did. But yeah, totally possible that they might be hiding massive numbers.

  35. @James Speaks
    Your analysis assumes infection/disease/recovery bestows immunity upon the patient.

    Dr. What’s His Name, the short guy who is the infectious disease and HIV specialist was asked today if patients who had the illness could recover and get the illness again. He said without hesitation “No.” I took that to mean the rumors were just that, rumors.

  36. Hail says: • Website
    @Anonymous
    And what if the ACE2 theory doesn’t work out?

    Then the Wuhan catastrophe should replicate in any cities with the same medical hygiene levels.

    But we are six weeks into this calamity (since export to the world) and China remains the dramatic outlier.

    The truth is the ACE2 theory is panning out. The mass transportation leaked spreaders in January should've poisoned the entire developed world. The air traffic alone out of china in the crucial early days was the perfect Armageddon disease vector. Those people should've infected many on those thousands of flights and then those seeds should've sprouted virus hell pits in each urban destination.

    But it didn't happen.

    So I suppose a radical mutation of the virus might still change the game. But for now I am hugely relieved. ACE2 theory is working and there is reason to believe it's here to stay: there is evidence that East Asian lungs have adapted to intense corona outbreaks with a tradeoff similar to black sickle cell adaptation.

    Bottom line is East Asians have evolved slightly different lung structures and we are likely only understanding this phenomenon now because China has been closed off us for so long.

    Assuming for argument’s sake that people East Asia do get the COVID19 virus/fly at a higher rate than us, the other possibilities:

    – Higher smoking rate, and
    – Air pollution. These places have had significantly higher levels of it for a long time.

    So there is a potential difference between “people in East Asia are more affected” and “racial East Asians are more affected.” And of course all three could contribute (genetics, smoking, air pollution), and other things, for an individual’s proclivity to get the virus. There is no reason to assume all the eggs are in one basket.

  37. We won’t see any real attempt at reduction of transmission until some open borders globalism uber alles types start dying from COVID-19.

    • Replies: @Lugash
    We won't see it until a sacred group starts getting gored. If blacks are affected more by nCoV or HIV+ then we'll see action. Possibly if ACE2 is real Asian-Americans will demand a shutdown, but they'll want exemptions for relatives, legal and otherwise, that it won't make any difference.
  38. @J.Ross
    Helpless child "refugees" deployed, by our "ally" Erdogan, to the Greek border, are attempting to murder police by immolation.
    https://twitter.com/Sotiridimp/status/1233801843920293890
    Turkish buses are giving "refugees" a lift from the camp to the border for free. They all have proper Turkish passports.
    Are we going to take sovereignty seriously, or are we going to embrace pathogenic accelerationism? A system which refuses to defend its borders is a system which will run out of beds and respirators.

    Weapons free…light ’em up!!!!

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    Greece is authorizing its border forces to use live ammunition. Greece has invoked an EU charter article about mutual protection. The heads of state of France, Belgium, and Nederland have tweeted support. Germany of all people is sending reinforcements through Frontex (the EU border authority).
    This is could have shocked some people back to their senses, although the objection here is still to "illegal" immigration, and there are still charity boats ferrying Africans directly across the Mediterranean.
  39. @Coemgen
    We won’t see any real attempt at reduction of transmission until some open borders globalism uber alles types start dying from COVID-19.

    We won’t see it until a sacred group starts getting gored. If blacks are affected more by nCoV or HIV+ then we’ll see action. Possibly if ACE2 is real Asian-Americans will demand a shutdown, but they’ll want exemptions for relatives, legal and otherwise, that it won’t make any difference.

    • Replies: @Hail

    Possibly if ACE2 is real Asian-Americans will demand a shutdown
     
    Chinese scholars appear to be publishing on this actively, but no Western ones are, unless you count amateurs such as some Unz Review-type authors.

    A team whose lead author is Yanan Cao is arguing in favor the ACE2 theory that was popularized at Peak Prosperity in mid-February.

    But there are those against it; from a Feb. 18 paper whose lead author is Ying Chen:

    "Asians show a similar ACE2 expression to other races. Furthermore, the frequencies of ACE2 alleles in Asians are not significantly deviated from those in other races. These observations indicate that individuals of all races need the same level of personal protection againstSARS-CoV-2."

    Details on the Ying Chen paper:


    "Asians and other races express similar levels of and share the same genetic
    polymorphisms of the SARS-CoV-2 cell-entry receptor"

    Ying Chen1,2, Kejia Shan1,2,3, and Wenfeng Qian1,2,,3*

    1 State Key Laboratory of Plant Genomics, Institute of Genetics and Developmental
    Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    2 Key Laboratory of Genetic Network Biology, Institute of Genetics and
    Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    3 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
     

    "Not Peer Reviewed." Preprint [link to pdf]. Posted Feb. 18, 2020.
  40. @Anonymous
    The ACE2 issue is driving this train. But there is a massive media coverup going on. And big surprise it's blowing up in their face.

    Each day that passes without catastrophe bizarrely makes Trump look like a hero.

    Weeks go by and the numbers mysteriously do not explode across the fruited plain. Meanwhile the media is screaming "Wuhan nightmare is coming to your hometown!" Real soon now.

    In the USA all efforts should be concentrated where East Asian genetics are clustered.

    So Hawaii, Bay Area, pockets of LA, Houston, NYC etc.

    Hopefully this is being done behind the scenes. PC enforcement in the media means that this is not being discussed anywhere in public by any authorities.

    Think we can conclude Trump election did not move the overton window on the race issue in America.

    This is like the Ebola scare all over again. Instantly politicized with supporters of the president saying there’s nothing to fear.

  41. @Anonymous
    And what if the ACE2 theory doesn’t work out?

    Then the Wuhan catastrophe should replicate in any cities with the same medical hygiene levels.

    But we are six weeks into this calamity (since export to the world) and China remains the dramatic outlier.

    The truth is the ACE2 theory is panning out. The mass transportation leaked spreaders in January should've poisoned the entire developed world. The air traffic alone out of china in the crucial early days was the perfect Armageddon disease vector. Those people should've infected many on those thousands of flights and then those seeds should've sprouted virus hell pits in each urban destination.

    But it didn't happen.

    So I suppose a radical mutation of the virus might still change the game. But for now I am hugely relieved. ACE2 theory is working and there is reason to believe it's here to stay: there is evidence that East Asian lungs have adapted to intense corona outbreaks with a tradeoff similar to black sickle cell adaptation.

    Bottom line is East Asians have evolved slightly different lung structures and we are likely only understanding this phenomenon now because China has been closed off us for so long.

    The ACE2 thing is poorly understood even by the few specialists who study it in depth, but enthusiastic HBD commenters will keep jumping on it and build castles of air based on it.

    Just to inject a little realism into the story.

    1) In China the epidemic likely started last November. The first death occurred on January 11, so more than six weeks later.

    2) Within Hubei province, the epidemic quickly overwhelmed hospitals, resulting in a very high mortality rate.

    3) The rest of China shows significantly lower mortality rates.

    4) Most deaths in China are among the elderly, and 80% of the cases in China are mild as well.

    5) The Italian “Patient One” is in intensive care. He’s a 38-year-old otherwise healthy man. He’d probably be dead in Hubei, where hospitals are overwhelmed and they don’t have the capacity to provide intensive care to patients. So yeah, the majority of cases in Europe are mild (same as in China), but there are some strange cases of relatively young and healthy people getting inexplicably sick.

    6) The Iranian female soccer player is another example of a young (in her case 22) and healthy person getting into critical condition (and in her case, dying, probably due to the horrible conditions in Iranian hospitals).

    So far there’s no evidence at all that the epidemic was any different in China than elsewhere.

    As to feeling relieved, your personal survival is very likely. We can all get unlucky, but most likely almost all the commenters here are going to survive this. It’s not the Great Pestilence. Since children are unaffected, we don’t have to worry about them, which is certainly a great relief to me.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason

    The Italian “Patient One” is in intensive care. He’s a 38-year-old otherwise healthy man. He’d probably be dead in Hubei, where hospitals are overwhelmed and they don’t have the capacity to provide intensive care to patients. So yeah, the majority of cases in Europe are mild (same as in China), but there are some strange cases of relatively young and healthy people getting inexplicably sick.
     
    I don't think you can ever be sure whether press information about people's health records is accurate or not. If they were HIV positive, or diabetic, or had lupus, or asthma, that information would probably not be in the public domain.
    , @Anon

    5) The Italian “Patient One” is in intensive care. He’s a 38-year-old otherwise healthy man. He’d probably be dead in Hubei, where hospitals are overwhelmed and they don’t have the capacity to provide intensive care to patients.
     
    Did you even watch the video that was the subject of this post? The doctor, who visited China in person as part of a WHO delegation or experts, pretty much contradicted the entire China Bad narrative of cable television and Twitter. They have beds in hospitals and excess ventilators. They moved a lot of medical consultation to the net, delayed elective and minor matters, and then moved whoever remained to dedicated non-corona hospitals and commandeered entire hospitals just to give care to coronavirus patients, and those hospital are not full. The doctor said they have intake "fever clinics," complete with imaging equipment and coronavirus testing, where they can yes-no on whether it's coronavirus, at which point they can send you to a dedicated hosptal if necessary. They maxed out at over 40,000 coronavirus tests in a single day, dropping to a third that now. The CDC has tested in the hundreds total, not the tens of thousands per day.

    One interesting thing is how the doctor explained why the WHO thinks the Chinese numbers are accurate. They are not just trusting the Chinese. They have triangulated good reason to believe the data. An interesting factor to me is how he explained that in the early days of epidemics you tend to get people who are already far along in their symptoms, whereas as time passes and public health authorities communicate via media, you get people coming in much earlier, when they have a slight fever, and they are more treatable. So you get a high death rate that then drops.

    A lot of things about Canada annoy me, but their news is certainly less sensational than ours.
  42. Hail says: • Website
    @Lugash
    We won't see it until a sacred group starts getting gored. If blacks are affected more by nCoV or HIV+ then we'll see action. Possibly if ACE2 is real Asian-Americans will demand a shutdown, but they'll want exemptions for relatives, legal and otherwise, that it won't make any difference.

    Possibly if ACE2 is real Asian-Americans will demand a shutdown

    Chinese scholars appear to be publishing on this actively, but no Western ones are, unless you count amateurs such as some Unz Review-type authors.

    A team whose lead author is Yanan Cao is arguing in favor the ACE2 theory that was popularized at Peak Prosperity in mid-February.

    But there are those against it; from a Feb. 18 paper whose lead author is Ying Chen:

    “Asians show a similar ACE2 expression to other races. Furthermore, the frequencies of ACE2 alleles in Asians are not significantly deviated from those in other races. These observations indicate that individuals of all races need the same level of personal protection againstSARS-CoV-2.”

    Details on the Ying Chen paper:

    [MORE]

    “Asians and other races express similar levels of and share the same genetic
    polymorphisms of the SARS-CoV-2 cell-entry receptor”

    Ying Chen1,2, Kejia Shan1,2,3, and Wenfeng Qian1,2,,3*

    1 State Key Laboratory of Plant Genomics, Institute of Genetics and Developmental
    Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    2 Key Laboratory of Genetic Network Biology, Institute of Genetics and
    Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    3 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

    “Not Peer Reviewed.” Preprint [link to pdf]. Posted Feb. 18, 2020.

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

    Chinese scholars appear to be publishing on this actively, but no Western ones are, unless you count amateurs such as some Unz Review-type authors.
     
    That's because Western scholars KNOW that race is just a social construct.

    Duh.

    The science is settled!
    , @Lot
    I looked at a dozen or so preprints on CV today. Most were Chinese authors and in broken English, and some were full of that trademark dopey-Orwellian propaganda that survived the transition from Maoism to authoritarian capitalism unscathed.

    “With care and strong work Chinese people will defeat COVID19 in March with our science projection statistics.”

    https://www.medrxiv.org/search/Wuhan%20numresults%3A10%20sort%3Apublication-date%20direction%3Adescending?page=2
  43. @Altai
    Anytime anyone says a government 'can't do that' they're wrong and their very intense need to tell you the government 'can't do that' is proof. If it can't be done, what are they so concerned about?

    The government can take your children from you, it can arrest you, it can coerce you to all kinds of things, many governments still maintain the right to conscription. The problem is we've been living under managerial politicians so long who gave it all away to neoliberal ideals after the fall of the Soviet Union that the current paradigm, which is exquisitely deliberate and designed to service the short-term greed and indulgence of the wealthy, that the mantra of TINA (There is no alternative) has triumphed.

    Everytime there has been a crisis in Europe all the supposed rules the EU operates under go out the window to deal with it. When the banking crisis hit all kinds of rules were ignored in order to make sure the bankers got their bets back with their expected winnings no matter how many countries were then delivered two or more lost generations. Many of the rules are just outright ignored by certain countries. (France admirably ignores many of the EMU rules since it would hurt it's economy and workers if it didn't and makes no efforts to bring itself back into line.)

    During the financial crisis when Italians were driving over the border into Switzerland to deposit gold and cash in Swiss banks, Schengen was ignored and Switzerland imposed checks on cars coming in. There is lots of leeway in Schengen anyway for temporary border restrictions such as those seen during the migrant march in 2015/2016, Denmark and some other countries effectively suspended Schengen for short periods. The mantra of the ECB has been 'whatever it takes' to protect the bankers from the consequences of their actions. Sadly 'whatever it takes' doesn't apply to pandemics.

    It's absolutely crazy that you buy a ticket for a direct flight from Milan to New York still. All direct flights from Milan outside Italy and particularly to major cities in other European countries should have been shut down last week, they definitely need to be shut down now. It may already be spreading in Rome. Ironically it may mean this years Eurovision song contest will be cancelled. (It's slogan this year is 'Open Up')

    One incident that hasn't been discussed much is a Danish man who appears to have contracted Covid-19 in Munich from an Italian man at a conference and the case of the Google employee who got it in Zurich. So you may have community spread in Munich and Zurich now. The reality is only a small number of people travel between countries in Europe and only a short period of time in reality is needed to weather this thing potentially burning out. It's a disgrace that they can't even ban flights from Milan or impose some border checks with Italy.

    I'll point out ICUs are already typically at capacity at any given time. China had something of an advantage here since there is such a high risk of these events happening in China that they have built a lot of them for potential flu or corona outbreaks. There is no spare capacity for respiratory pandemics elsewhere.

    I think the US is making everyone who who gets on a plane to the US in Italy and South Korea to be checked for the virus now. That is still not a ban but better than nothing I guess.

    • Disagree: HammerJack
    • Replies: @Hail
    Wouldn't this require instant-result test kits?
  44. @reiner Tor
    The ACE2 thing is poorly understood even by the few specialists who study it in depth, but enthusiastic HBD commenters will keep jumping on it and build castles of air based on it.

    Just to inject a little realism into the story.

    1) In China the epidemic likely started last November. The first death occurred on January 11, so more than six weeks later.

    2) Within Hubei province, the epidemic quickly overwhelmed hospitals, resulting in a very high mortality rate.

    3) The rest of China shows significantly lower mortality rates.

    4) Most deaths in China are among the elderly, and 80% of the cases in China are mild as well.

    5) The Italian “Patient One” is in intensive care. He’s a 38-year-old otherwise healthy man. He’d probably be dead in Hubei, where hospitals are overwhelmed and they don’t have the capacity to provide intensive care to patients. So yeah, the majority of cases in Europe are mild (same as in China), but there are some strange cases of relatively young and healthy people getting inexplicably sick.

    6) The Iranian female soccer player is another example of a young (in her case 22) and healthy person getting into critical condition (and in her case, dying, probably due to the horrible conditions in Iranian hospitals).

    So far there’s no evidence at all that the epidemic was any different in China than elsewhere.

    As to feeling relieved, your personal survival is very likely. We can all get unlucky, but most likely almost all the commenters here are going to survive this. It’s not the Great Pestilence. Since children are unaffected, we don’t have to worry about them, which is certainly a great relief to me.

    The Italian “Patient One” is in intensive care. He’s a 38-year-old otherwise healthy man. He’d probably be dead in Hubei, where hospitals are overwhelmed and they don’t have the capacity to provide intensive care to patients. So yeah, the majority of cases in Europe are mild (same as in China), but there are some strange cases of relatively young and healthy people getting inexplicably sick.

    I don’t think you can ever be sure whether press information about people’s health records is accurate or not. If they were HIV positive, or diabetic, or had lupus, or asthma, that information would probably not be in the public domain.

    • Thanks: Redneck farmer
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    Perhaps. Still it caused Hubei level mayhem in Iran, or actually worse. (Though the Iranians are dumber, poorer, under embargo, so nothing going for them.)
    , @Alice
    ot tbe ethnicity of the sick "italians". How many are ethnically italian?

    Let me also add that hygiene is nit Italy's strong suit. Pit toilets. how much if this is transmission via fecal contamination ?
    , @reiner Tor
    I forgot to mention that he was unlikely to have HIV. We also know he infected his pregnant wife. What percentage of married 38 year old heterosexuals who are just about to have kids have HIV?

    But yeah, he could have had some other chronic condition.
    , @Steve Sailer
    This is like when I had cancer when I was 38. People would ask my wife, "So, Steve's like a smoker, right."

    "No."

    Then they'd get kind of depressed and thoughtful looking.

    What everybody hopes is that if you get really sick that you must have deserved your disease. And since they don't deserve a disease, that means they'll live forever.

    , @reiner Tor
    I just recently saw a picture of the 38-year-old Italian guy (he’s in ICU), with the face pixelated. He was running, and looked muscular. Of course there could be some chronic condition, but it seems to confirm the news that he was in good health before.
  45. @Lot
    It already has been disproved in its strong version. Italy is at 1100 confirmed cases and France hit 100 today.

    Plus the situation in Iran, or even the Italian Patient One, who is 38 years old, but in intensive care.

  46. @Hail

    Possibly if ACE2 is real Asian-Americans will demand a shutdown
     
    Chinese scholars appear to be publishing on this actively, but no Western ones are, unless you count amateurs such as some Unz Review-type authors.

    A team whose lead author is Yanan Cao is arguing in favor the ACE2 theory that was popularized at Peak Prosperity in mid-February.

    But there are those against it; from a Feb. 18 paper whose lead author is Ying Chen:

    "Asians show a similar ACE2 expression to other races. Furthermore, the frequencies of ACE2 alleles in Asians are not significantly deviated from those in other races. These observations indicate that individuals of all races need the same level of personal protection againstSARS-CoV-2."

    Details on the Ying Chen paper:


    "Asians and other races express similar levels of and share the same genetic
    polymorphisms of the SARS-CoV-2 cell-entry receptor"

    Ying Chen1,2, Kejia Shan1,2,3, and Wenfeng Qian1,2,,3*

    1 State Key Laboratory of Plant Genomics, Institute of Genetics and Developmental
    Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    2 Key Laboratory of Genetic Network Biology, Institute of Genetics and
    Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    3 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
     

    "Not Peer Reviewed." Preprint [link to pdf]. Posted Feb. 18, 2020.

    Chinese scholars appear to be publishing on this actively, but no Western ones are, unless you count amateurs such as some Unz Review-type authors.

    That’s because Western scholars KNOW that race is just a social construct.

    Duh.

    The science is settled!

  47. @Jonathan Mason

    The Italian “Patient One” is in intensive care. He’s a 38-year-old otherwise healthy man. He’d probably be dead in Hubei, where hospitals are overwhelmed and they don’t have the capacity to provide intensive care to patients. So yeah, the majority of cases in Europe are mild (same as in China), but there are some strange cases of relatively young and healthy people getting inexplicably sick.
     
    I don't think you can ever be sure whether press information about people's health records is accurate or not. If they were HIV positive, or diabetic, or had lupus, or asthma, that information would probably not be in the public domain.

    Perhaps. Still it caused Hubei level mayhem in Iran, or actually worse. (Though the Iranians are dumber, poorer, under embargo, so nothing going for them.)

  48. @Western
    I think the US is making everyone who who gets on a plane to the US in Italy and South Korea to be checked for the virus now. That is still not a ban but better than nothing I guess.

    Wouldn’t this require instant-result test kits?

  49. @Jonathan Mason

    The Italian “Patient One” is in intensive care. He’s a 38-year-old otherwise healthy man. He’d probably be dead in Hubei, where hospitals are overwhelmed and they don’t have the capacity to provide intensive care to patients. So yeah, the majority of cases in Europe are mild (same as in China), but there are some strange cases of relatively young and healthy people getting inexplicably sick.
     
    I don't think you can ever be sure whether press information about people's health records is accurate or not. If they were HIV positive, or diabetic, or had lupus, or asthma, that information would probably not be in the public domain.

    ot tbe ethnicity of the sick “italians”. How many are ethnically italian?

    Let me also add that hygiene is nit Italy’s strong suit. Pit toilets. how much if this is transmission via fecal contamination ?

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    Here’s the first Italian to die of the disease:

    https://i0.wp.com/www.news1.news/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/[email protected]PG
  50. Lot says:
    @Hail

    Possibly if ACE2 is real Asian-Americans will demand a shutdown
     
    Chinese scholars appear to be publishing on this actively, but no Western ones are, unless you count amateurs such as some Unz Review-type authors.

    A team whose lead author is Yanan Cao is arguing in favor the ACE2 theory that was popularized at Peak Prosperity in mid-February.

    But there are those against it; from a Feb. 18 paper whose lead author is Ying Chen:

    "Asians show a similar ACE2 expression to other races. Furthermore, the frequencies of ACE2 alleles in Asians are not significantly deviated from those in other races. These observations indicate that individuals of all races need the same level of personal protection againstSARS-CoV-2."

    Details on the Ying Chen paper:


    "Asians and other races express similar levels of and share the same genetic
    polymorphisms of the SARS-CoV-2 cell-entry receptor"

    Ying Chen1,2, Kejia Shan1,2,3, and Wenfeng Qian1,2,,3*

    1 State Key Laboratory of Plant Genomics, Institute of Genetics and Developmental
    Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    2 Key Laboratory of Genetic Network Biology, Institute of Genetics and
    Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    3 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
     

    "Not Peer Reviewed." Preprint [link to pdf]. Posted Feb. 18, 2020.

    I looked at a dozen or so preprints on CV today. Most were Chinese authors and in broken English, and some were full of that trademark dopey-Orwellian propaganda that survived the transition from Maoism to authoritarian capitalism unscathed.

    “With care and strong work Chinese people will defeat COVID19 in March with our science projection statistics.”

    https://www.medrxiv.org/search/Wuhan%20numresults%3A10%20sort%3Apublication-date%20direction%3Adescending?page=2

    • Replies: @Hail
    Not sure if Godfree Roberts reads the Steve Sailer blog at all, or its comments, but if he does, you've just given him an idea for an article to be published at some point in the next few months, COVID19 situation allowing:

    How Chinese Maoism Heroically Defeated COVID19
     
  51. Anon[218] • Disclaimer says:
    @reiner Tor
    The ACE2 thing is poorly understood even by the few specialists who study it in depth, but enthusiastic HBD commenters will keep jumping on it and build castles of air based on it.

    Just to inject a little realism into the story.

    1) In China the epidemic likely started last November. The first death occurred on January 11, so more than six weeks later.

    2) Within Hubei province, the epidemic quickly overwhelmed hospitals, resulting in a very high mortality rate.

    3) The rest of China shows significantly lower mortality rates.

    4) Most deaths in China are among the elderly, and 80% of the cases in China are mild as well.

    5) The Italian “Patient One” is in intensive care. He’s a 38-year-old otherwise healthy man. He’d probably be dead in Hubei, where hospitals are overwhelmed and they don’t have the capacity to provide intensive care to patients. So yeah, the majority of cases in Europe are mild (same as in China), but there are some strange cases of relatively young and healthy people getting inexplicably sick.

    6) The Iranian female soccer player is another example of a young (in her case 22) and healthy person getting into critical condition (and in her case, dying, probably due to the horrible conditions in Iranian hospitals).

    So far there’s no evidence at all that the epidemic was any different in China than elsewhere.

    As to feeling relieved, your personal survival is very likely. We can all get unlucky, but most likely almost all the commenters here are going to survive this. It’s not the Great Pestilence. Since children are unaffected, we don’t have to worry about them, which is certainly a great relief to me.

    5) The Italian “Patient One” is in intensive care. He’s a 38-year-old otherwise healthy man. He’d probably be dead in Hubei, where hospitals are overwhelmed and they don’t have the capacity to provide intensive care to patients.

    Did you even watch the video that was the subject of this post? The doctor, who visited China in person as part of a WHO delegation or experts, pretty much contradicted the entire China Bad narrative of cable television and Twitter. They have beds in hospitals and excess ventilators. They moved a lot of medical consultation to the net, delayed elective and minor matters, and then moved whoever remained to dedicated non-corona hospitals and commandeered entire hospitals just to give care to coronavirus patients, and those hospital are not full. The doctor said they have intake “fever clinics,” complete with imaging equipment and coronavirus testing, where they can yes-no on whether it’s coronavirus, at which point they can send you to a dedicated hosptal if necessary. They maxed out at over 40,000 coronavirus tests in a single day, dropping to a third that now. The CDC has tested in the hundreds total, not the tens of thousands per day.

    One interesting thing is how the doctor explained why the WHO thinks the Chinese numbers are accurate. They are not just trusting the Chinese. They have triangulated good reason to believe the data. An interesting factor to me is how he explained that in the early days of epidemics you tend to get people who are already far along in their symptoms, whereas as time passes and public health authorities communicate via media, you get people coming in much earlier, when they have a slight fever, and they are more treatable. So you get a high death rate that then drops.

    A lot of things about Canada annoy me, but their news is certainly less sensational than ours.

    • Replies: @FreddieY
    Thanks for the excellent summary. I hope it encourages more people to watch the video. Some people will be very surprised by it, if they can lay aside their presuppositions long enough to hear it.
    , @reiner Tor
    It was a two hour video, but apparently I should’ve watched it.

    It doesn’t change the point that I was making: Hubei, at the epicenter of the pandemic, had special reasons for the especially high mortality rates. It’s certainly not because of some special Chinese susceptibility to the disease. Which doesn’t seem to exist outside Hubei anyway.
  52. @Lot
    I looked at a dozen or so preprints on CV today. Most were Chinese authors and in broken English, and some were full of that trademark dopey-Orwellian propaganda that survived the transition from Maoism to authoritarian capitalism unscathed.

    “With care and strong work Chinese people will defeat COVID19 in March with our science projection statistics.”

    https://www.medrxiv.org/search/Wuhan%20numresults%3A10%20sort%3Apublication-date%20direction%3Adescending?page=2

    Not sure if Godfree Roberts reads the Steve Sailer blog at all, or its comments, but if he does, you’ve just given him an idea for an article to be published at some point in the next few months, COVID19 situation allowing:

    How Chinese Maoism Heroically Defeated COVID19

    • Replies: @Redneck farmer
    I don't know whether to hit agree or lol!
  53. @Hail
    I am going to be so bold as to say this "Migrant Crisis 2020" is a much bigger story than COVID19. By which I mean, more important.

    Reports emerging that a lot of the migrants that have been launched into Europe by Erdogan are Subsaharans, and are colluding with local Ethnomasochist-wackos and Merkelists, creating staged propaganda to put pressure on countries to lift the gates (again).

    Europe can easily survive, and has survived, epidemics much worse than the relatively mild COVID19. Can it survive the World's Most Important Graph?

    I am going to be so bold as to say this “Migrant Crisis 2020” is a much bigger story than COVID19. By which I mean, more important.

    Virus outbreaks come and go. Migrants come but they never go. Migrants = permanent migraines. Illegal immigrants are very hard to deport for x number of reasons. Even illegal alien criminals are difficult to capture and deport, which is 1000% crazy. And more crazy is that 90% of the crimes illegals commit are within their own ethnic community. Example is illegal alien child rapist Jose X. He is not raping American children. He is raping, robbing, assaulting within his community.
    You would think their co-ethnics would rally to have these maggots deported back home. Never happens.

  54. Anon[218] • Disclaimer says:

    OT

    Seattle police officer fired after investigation found he repeatedly made derogatory and discriminatory remarks
    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/seattle-police-officer-fired-after-finding-of-racial-and-gender-bias/

    This story is a little messy because the fired police officer was also accused of domestic violence and marijuana use by his ex-girlfriend, but as the headline says, the main thing seems to be his objectionable texts to his girlfriend four or five years ago. This is getting close to thought control if you cannot text racist things to your girlfriend. I suppose he was texting from work, but still.

    In a text obtained by the OPA, Novisedlak referred to a newly assigned officer to his squad as “an angry Black lesbian,” and in messages provided to the OPA, he called a female Seattle police employee “that crazy SPD whore.”
    Advertising

    Novisedlak also made racist remarks, including using the N-word, referring to his African American sergeant as a “monkey,” and describing another officer as a “lazy Mexican,” according to the OPA findings.

    Novisedlak either denied making the statements or said he didn’t remember them, according to the OPA summary. But he contended that if he did make the statements, they would have been in private conversations, the summary says.

    OPA Director Andrew Myerberg, in his findings and report to Police Chief Carmen Best, concluded Novisedlak “did, in fact, make pejorative and discriminatory statements toward women, homosexuals, and persons of color on numerous occasions.

    “I further find that his bias was so significant that it permeated his work as a police officer,” the OPA director concluded.

    Angry Black lesbians do exist in this world.

  55. The global economy’s inclusion uber alles religion is an unfriendly artificial intelligence Turking humanity and empowering pandemic biowarfare by any small group of technically talented men with a mission and moderate resources.

  56. It’s late and it’s time for conspiracy theories. I have a new one I just made up.

    I’ve been basing my thinking thus far on what I believe to be reasonable speculation. That President Trump has been advised by people who are the best in the world at what they do, they’ve all had long experience with the general problem, and they have access to information that’s better than we have on the open Internet. Keep Calm and Carry On. And wash your hands.

    But.

    What if the Deep State has been feeding President Trump what they know to be bad information? If one hundred thousand or even 1 million Americans need to die to get President Trump kicked out of office, then that’s what it takes. It really is the CFluWhu virus.

    What’s your favorite conspiracy theory?

    • Replies: @Servant of Gla'aki

    What’s your favorite conspiracy theory?
     
    That the Chinese unleashed this virus on themselves. In order to shut down the Hong Kong situation.
  57. @Jonathan Mason

    The Italian “Patient One” is in intensive care. He’s a 38-year-old otherwise healthy man. He’d probably be dead in Hubei, where hospitals are overwhelmed and they don’t have the capacity to provide intensive care to patients. So yeah, the majority of cases in Europe are mild (same as in China), but there are some strange cases of relatively young and healthy people getting inexplicably sick.
     
    I don't think you can ever be sure whether press information about people's health records is accurate or not. If they were HIV positive, or diabetic, or had lupus, or asthma, that information would probably not be in the public domain.

    I forgot to mention that he was unlikely to have HIV. We also know he infected his pregnant wife. What percentage of married 38 year old heterosexuals who are just about to have kids have HIV?

    But yeah, he could have had some other chronic condition.

    • Replies: @Me
    38 year old man in China

    Prostitutes?
  58. @Anon

    5) The Italian “Patient One” is in intensive care. He’s a 38-year-old otherwise healthy man. He’d probably be dead in Hubei, where hospitals are overwhelmed and they don’t have the capacity to provide intensive care to patients.
     
    Did you even watch the video that was the subject of this post? The doctor, who visited China in person as part of a WHO delegation or experts, pretty much contradicted the entire China Bad narrative of cable television and Twitter. They have beds in hospitals and excess ventilators. They moved a lot of medical consultation to the net, delayed elective and minor matters, and then moved whoever remained to dedicated non-corona hospitals and commandeered entire hospitals just to give care to coronavirus patients, and those hospital are not full. The doctor said they have intake "fever clinics," complete with imaging equipment and coronavirus testing, where they can yes-no on whether it's coronavirus, at which point they can send you to a dedicated hosptal if necessary. They maxed out at over 40,000 coronavirus tests in a single day, dropping to a third that now. The CDC has tested in the hundreds total, not the tens of thousands per day.

    One interesting thing is how the doctor explained why the WHO thinks the Chinese numbers are accurate. They are not just trusting the Chinese. They have triangulated good reason to believe the data. An interesting factor to me is how he explained that in the early days of epidemics you tend to get people who are already far along in their symptoms, whereas as time passes and public health authorities communicate via media, you get people coming in much earlier, when they have a slight fever, and they are more treatable. So you get a high death rate that then drops.

    A lot of things about Canada annoy me, but their news is certainly less sensational than ours.

    Thanks for the excellent summary. I hope it encourages more people to watch the video. Some people will be very surprised by it, if they can lay aside their presuppositions long enough to hear it.

  59. @Hail

    The most important thing is proving Trump and Deplorables wrong
     
    In the last days of February, including this the hallowed Leap Day, I am starting to sense COVID19 has turned a corner in US coverage/commentary. COVID19 as anti-Trump media sensation. Maybe it won't fully pan out, but it's moving that way.

    (Imagine if a sneering, hostile media and elite class had gone to all-influenza-all-the-time coverage during the 1957 influenza pandemic, blaming Eisenhower personally; imagine Eisenhower were ultimately impeached and removed for incompetence and possibly treason, for failure to stop tens of thousands from dying. That would be roughly comparable.)

    I’ve been thinking the same thing. What if the techniques learned and used for the last three years in the Destroy Trump media campaign have been turned to an alternative purpose, that of causing enough panic to create a bad recession in which millions are laid off due to (orchestrated) market uncertainty. Anything to destroy Trump.

    Of course, it’s possible that if this is tried, and the Covid-19 virus turns out to be mostly a dud compared with the flu, then people might see through their ploy. I suppose that’s wishful thinking.

  60. @Alice
    ot tbe ethnicity of the sick "italians". How many are ethnically italian?

    Let me also add that hygiene is nit Italy's strong suit. Pit toilets. how much if this is transmission via fecal contamination ?

    Here’s the first Italian to die of the disease:

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason

    Here’s the first Italian to die of the disease:
     
    Looks to me like he may have been a COPD (Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease) sufferer of the type known as a Blue Bloater. He was 78 at the time of his death. I would guess the photo was taken some years ago.
  61. Anon[279] • Disclaimer says:

    Even though Covid-19 has a low death rate, there’s a lot of drama over this because the US has a big population bulge (he Boomers) in the age range where it’s most likely to be infectious and do damage. Yet another time when the concerns of the Boomers dominate the news.

    Boomers who smoked for 40 years and/or ate their way into diabetes are irate about being held accountable for their misbehavior by a mere virus.

  62. @Lot
    There was widespread agreement that Chinese gov numbers about Wuhan infections were drastically underreported.

    It is therefore quite odd mainstream financial journalists and public health authorities are accepting that currently Beijing and Shanghai have 0 or 1 new CV case per day even while Korea, Iran and Italy report 100+ new cases a day.

    There’s a Japanese-Georgia State pre-print that suggests about 900,000 cases just in Wuhan.

    I find the Chinese gov stats just unbelievable. We have single (or married couple) superspreaders from Wuhan cause 1000+ cases in Korea/Diamond Princess/Iran/Italy but the 100-1000x more numerous cases of Wuhan travelers who did not leave China supposedly not causing any infections in major Chinese cities.

    I am Chinese living in China in a city not too far away from Shanghai. The difference between Korea and China’s cities a few days ago, at least, is that China’s steets are much emptier than those of Korea.

  63. Anonymous[375] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jesse
    The Chinese numbers are ridiculous. We're expected to believe that their death rate every single day has been 2.1%? That said, everyone is lying. (The South Koreans less than most, maybe because they can blame that weird church/cult for the spread.)

    Now, it might be prudent to play this down, and hopefully there's vast work going on behind the scenes. But the level of trust I'm seeing IRL and on social media, is terrifying. People are saying that they're not stockpiling (!?) because it's no worse than the flu, and it "only" affects the elderly. There's a strong overlap between people cheerfully saying it won't kill the young, and people who threw a fit at Zeke Emanuel and Michael Bloomberg musing that maybe a full round of chemo isn't worth it at 85.

    South Korea’s death rate has been significantly lower at around 0.5%. South Korea’s figures are the outlier so far, not China’s.

  64. @Colin Wright
    '...I find the Chinese gov stats just unbelievable. We have single (or married couple) superspreaders from Wuhan cause 1000+ cases in Korea/Diamond Princess/Iran/Italy but the 100-1000x more numerous cases of Wuhan travelers who did not leave China supposedly not causing any infections in major Chinese cities.'

    I hate agreeing with Lot, but when he moves away from the Zionist entity, it happens.

    Like here. China definitely has a reputation for manufacturing whatever statistics it thinks best suit its needs.

    So if China says new cases of the virus have plunged, that tells us exactly one thing.

    It would suit China if the rest of the world believed that new cases of the virus have plunged. They may well have in fact done so -- but that would be more or less coincidental.

    What is the point of hiding numbers?

    Does China somehow want the world economy to crash? How is that going to be helpful to CCP or China?

    And did anybody here notice the virus/disease development in India? It is extremely a nothing burger. How is that possible? Is that also just a lie? Does anybody remember that ridiculous treatment of a patient in Nepal? What happened after? I believe it is more than two weeks now. Nothing much happened in Nepal? How?

    Just have some faith in the common human goodness. I think. It will do all of us some good.

  65. @Almost Missouri
    This sounds like a ringing endorsement of Bill's advice three days ago that

    "You want to be infected either early or late, not in the middle. In the middle, the ICUs are full and there are no ventilators available."
     
    Obviously, we don't know exactly when "middle" will transition to "late", and in any case, once you are past "early", it's no longer in your control when you get infected. So from a personal point of view, getting exposed early in a low infection region seems optimal.

    Obviously, from a epidemic management point of view, a long thin middle is better than a short fat one, or "decelerationism" as Steve calls it.

    This early phase does not really exist.

    In Wuhan, around Jan 15, the clinics were becoming overwhelmed like overnight. Before Jan 15, you might count the early phase as being the two weeks before, but nobody much noticed it even most of the doctors and nurses didn’t much notice.

    You cannot intentionally fall into the “early phase”.

    • Replies: @anonymous

    but nobody much noticed it even most of the doctors and nurses didn’t much notice.
     
    January 1 report by Chinese official broadcaster about a pneumonia outbreak tracing to a market in Wuhan. The major fuck up in the story is indicating that human to human transmission was not established. Even if it wasn't established, shouldn't have been so reassuring. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIhCVfL7nbM

    In any case in the last few days of December, the illness definitely was well known within the medical system of Wuhan.
  66. @Hail
    Not sure if Godfree Roberts reads the Steve Sailer blog at all, or its comments, but if he does, you've just given him an idea for an article to be published at some point in the next few months, COVID19 situation allowing:

    How Chinese Maoism Heroically Defeated COVID19
     

    I don’t know whether to hit agree or lol!

  67. For twitter users among us, @barton_options is an excellent follow.

  68. One common sense step to slow transmission would be to require restaurant and other food handling workers to wear masks as well as gloves. Some percentage of cooks and wait staff likely have the virus but aren’t symptomatic yet. Having them all wear masks for a month should dramatically reduce one vector of the disease spreading.

    Another common sense step would be to require patients in waiting rooms of hospitals, clinics, and physicians offices to wear masks. Distribute them at the door. That would reduce the number of medical personnel getting the virus and passing it on.

    • Agree: Bert
  69. @Lot
    There was widespread agreement that Chinese gov numbers about Wuhan infections were drastically underreported.

    It is therefore quite odd mainstream financial journalists and public health authorities are accepting that currently Beijing and Shanghai have 0 or 1 new CV case per day even while Korea, Iran and Italy report 100+ new cases a day.

    There’s a Japanese-Georgia State pre-print that suggests about 900,000 cases just in Wuhan.

    I find the Chinese gov stats just unbelievable. We have single (or married couple) superspreaders from Wuhan cause 1000+ cases in Korea/Diamond Princess/Iran/Italy but the 100-1000x more numerous cases of Wuhan travelers who did not leave China supposedly not causing any infections in major Chinese cities.

    This article from The Observer / Guardian might shed light on that:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/li-zehuajournalist-wouldnt-stay-quiet-covid-19-coronavirus

    Health commission officials also ordered scientists to stop testing, and institutions not to release information.

    It doesn’t say what ‘tests’ were stopped, but if it was tests for infection then it would explain the reduction in reported cases.

  70. @Anonymous
    And what if the ACE2 theory doesn’t work out?

    Then the Wuhan catastrophe should replicate in any cities with the same medical hygiene levels.

    But we are six weeks into this calamity (since export to the world) and China remains the dramatic outlier.

    The truth is the ACE2 theory is panning out. The mass transportation leaked spreaders in January should've poisoned the entire developed world. The air traffic alone out of china in the crucial early days was the perfect Armageddon disease vector. Those people should've infected many on those thousands of flights and then those seeds should've sprouted virus hell pits in each urban destination.

    But it didn't happen.

    So I suppose a radical mutation of the virus might still change the game. But for now I am hugely relieved. ACE2 theory is working and there is reason to believe it's here to stay: there is evidence that East Asian lungs have adapted to intense corona outbreaks with a tradeoff similar to black sickle cell adaptation.

    Bottom line is East Asians have evolved slightly different lung structures and we are likely only understanding this phenomenon now because China has been closed off us for so long.

    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

    No, the epidemic is following the same path outside China as it did inside, we are just 4 weeks behind. Look at the numbers.

    • Agree: reiner Tor
  71. @Anon

    5) The Italian “Patient One” is in intensive care. He’s a 38-year-old otherwise healthy man. He’d probably be dead in Hubei, where hospitals are overwhelmed and they don’t have the capacity to provide intensive care to patients.
     
    Did you even watch the video that was the subject of this post? The doctor, who visited China in person as part of a WHO delegation or experts, pretty much contradicted the entire China Bad narrative of cable television and Twitter. They have beds in hospitals and excess ventilators. They moved a lot of medical consultation to the net, delayed elective and minor matters, and then moved whoever remained to dedicated non-corona hospitals and commandeered entire hospitals just to give care to coronavirus patients, and those hospital are not full. The doctor said they have intake "fever clinics," complete with imaging equipment and coronavirus testing, where they can yes-no on whether it's coronavirus, at which point they can send you to a dedicated hosptal if necessary. They maxed out at over 40,000 coronavirus tests in a single day, dropping to a third that now. The CDC has tested in the hundreds total, not the tens of thousands per day.

    One interesting thing is how the doctor explained why the WHO thinks the Chinese numbers are accurate. They are not just trusting the Chinese. They have triangulated good reason to believe the data. An interesting factor to me is how he explained that in the early days of epidemics you tend to get people who are already far along in their symptoms, whereas as time passes and public health authorities communicate via media, you get people coming in much earlier, when they have a slight fever, and they are more treatable. So you get a high death rate that then drops.

    A lot of things about Canada annoy me, but their news is certainly less sensational than ours.

    It was a two hour video, but apparently I should’ve watched it.

    It doesn’t change the point that I was making: Hubei, at the epicenter of the pandemic, had special reasons for the especially high mortality rates. It’s certainly not because of some special Chinese susceptibility to the disease. Which doesn’t seem to exist outside Hubei anyway.

  72. @Jonathan Mason

    The Italian “Patient One” is in intensive care. He’s a 38-year-old otherwise healthy man. He’d probably be dead in Hubei, where hospitals are overwhelmed and they don’t have the capacity to provide intensive care to patients. So yeah, the majority of cases in Europe are mild (same as in China), but there are some strange cases of relatively young and healthy people getting inexplicably sick.
     
    I don't think you can ever be sure whether press information about people's health records is accurate or not. If they were HIV positive, or diabetic, or had lupus, or asthma, that information would probably not be in the public domain.

    This is like when I had cancer when I was 38. People would ask my wife, “So, Steve’s like a smoker, right.”

    “No.”

    Then they’d get kind of depressed and thoughtful looking.

    What everybody hopes is that if you get really sick that you must have deserved your disease. And since they don’t deserve a disease, that means they’ll live forever.

    • Replies: @Smithsonian_2

    Then they’d get kind of depressed and thoughtful looking.
     
    They were probably trying to work out why else you would have deserved it. There must be something.
  73. @Clyde
    The biggest scandal/horror show here is that the CDC has totally booted the distribution of Corona -Virus test kits. 14 days ago it sent out a huge batch of unusable ones. Thus, only 400 or so people in the US have been tested.
    I am laying this one on CD affirmative action policies that I can guess at from 1500 miles away. Women, gays and minorities, hell yeah! Trans whatevers too.
    ____________

    https://abcnews.go.com/International/massive-coronavirus-testing-program-south-korea-underscores-nimble/story?id=69226222
    Why South Korea may have more corona virus cases than the US
    South Korea had tested 66,652 people as of Thursday afternoon.

    SEOUL, South Korea -- Global health experts say the speed and scope of South Korea’s novel coronavirus diagnostic capability exhibit impressive and significant lab capabilities that no other countries, including the U.S., can match at the moment.

    South Korea had tested a total of 66,652 people for the COVID-19 coronavirus virus as of 4 p.m. local time Thursday, whereas Japan had reported administering roughly 1,890 tests and the U.S. only 445. The huge discrepancy compared to other countries reflects how quickly South Korea’s numbers have been rising, experts say.

    The total number of confirmed cases so far in South Korea is 1,766, up 505 from the day before. Of the 66,00 people who have been tested, more than 25,000 are still awaiting lab results.

    MORE: Fear grips Daegu, South Korea, amid coronavirus
    More than 10,000 people a day are being tested around the clock, propelled by a sense of concern that the virus may spread outside of Daegu area, where around 80 percent of all confirmed cases have been found.

    "This week is crucial for us in determining whether we have successfully dealt with COVID-19," South Korea Prime Minister Chung Sye-Kyun said.

    The tests are being run at 79 designated health centers, in addition to authorized private hospitals and public health labs across the country.

    Don’t worry a British lab in Northern Ireland claims to have developed a new super fast and accurate test.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-team-develops-four-hour-coronavirus-test-dfmfp78bk

    Unlike the articles the media love about some Israeli company developing a miracle cure, this might actually be true. Brits, not Jews, to the rescue!

  74. @Lot
    There was widespread agreement that Chinese gov numbers about Wuhan infections were drastically underreported.

    It is therefore quite odd mainstream financial journalists and public health authorities are accepting that currently Beijing and Shanghai have 0 or 1 new CV case per day even while Korea, Iran and Italy report 100+ new cases a day.

    There’s a Japanese-Georgia State pre-print that suggests about 900,000 cases just in Wuhan.

    I find the Chinese gov stats just unbelievable. We have single (or married couple) superspreaders from Wuhan cause 1000+ cases in Korea/Diamond Princess/Iran/Italy but the 100-1000x more numerous cases of Wuhan travelers who did not leave China supposedly not causing any infections in major Chinese cities.

    No, the Chinese numbers are pretty accurate.

  75. @J.Ross
    This guy (read the whole tweet thread) says that Iran really is imploding this time as a result of Corona, unlike the "Green Revolution," or all the other times Iran was supposed to implode. Big (and portentious for such as ourselves) if true.
    https://twitter.com/aliostad/status/1233668766124400640

    Read an article from the lone British journalist in Tehran, Iran has shutdown, not imploded. Zionist wishful thinking.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    I doubt this Ali's a Zionist per se.
    The full shutdown is unlikely, yes (hence the skepticism), but because Iran has faced other existential crises in its recent history and has a certain last-line preparedness. However, several of the specific claims Ali makes in his tweet thread are likely to be totally true, are shocking, and are classic tin pot third world dictatorship own-foot-shooting. Iranians are not necessarily more vulnerable but they did a lot of proud dumb things: they refused to quarantine the holy city of Qom, they refused to move on first word because they wanted to have a big election turnout, they kept meeting each other in person.
    --------
    And yeah I am really tired of the completely unjustified triumphalism and undisguised supremacism in all these articles about how Israel (and apparently nobody else in the world) "might" do something, at some point in the future, and, whenever that comes around, all the Israel critics are going to be mighty sorry, and will voluntarily line up to receive a new drug from exterminationist supremacists who have a record of imposing medical surprises on people.
  76. anonymous[100] • Disclaimer says:
    @yakushimaru
    This early phase does not really exist.

    In Wuhan, around Jan 15, the clinics were becoming overwhelmed like overnight. Before Jan 15, you might count the early phase as being the two weeks before, but nobody much noticed it even most of the doctors and nurses didn't much notice.

    You cannot intentionally fall into the "early phase".

    but nobody much noticed it even most of the doctors and nurses didn’t much notice.

    January 1 report by Chinese official broadcaster about a pneumonia outbreak tracing to a market in Wuhan. The major fuck up in the story is indicating that human to human transmission was not established. Even if it wasn’t established, shouldn’t have been so reassuring.

    In any case in the last few days of December, the illness definitely was well known within the medical system of Wuhan.

  77. @Clyde
    The biggest scandal/horror show here is that the CDC has totally booted the distribution of Corona -Virus test kits. 14 days ago it sent out a huge batch of unusable ones. Thus, only 400 or so people in the US have been tested.
    I am laying this one on CD affirmative action policies that I can guess at from 1500 miles away. Women, gays and minorities, hell yeah! Trans whatevers too.
    ____________

    https://abcnews.go.com/International/massive-coronavirus-testing-program-south-korea-underscores-nimble/story?id=69226222
    Why South Korea may have more corona virus cases than the US
    South Korea had tested 66,652 people as of Thursday afternoon.

    SEOUL, South Korea -- Global health experts say the speed and scope of South Korea’s novel coronavirus diagnostic capability exhibit impressive and significant lab capabilities that no other countries, including the U.S., can match at the moment.

    South Korea had tested a total of 66,652 people for the COVID-19 coronavirus virus as of 4 p.m. local time Thursday, whereas Japan had reported administering roughly 1,890 tests and the U.S. only 445. The huge discrepancy compared to other countries reflects how quickly South Korea’s numbers have been rising, experts say.

    The total number of confirmed cases so far in South Korea is 1,766, up 505 from the day before. Of the 66,00 people who have been tested, more than 25,000 are still awaiting lab results.

    MORE: Fear grips Daegu, South Korea, amid coronavirus
    More than 10,000 people a day are being tested around the clock, propelled by a sense of concern that the virus may spread outside of Daegu area, where around 80 percent of all confirmed cases have been found.

    "This week is crucial for us in determining whether we have successfully dealt with COVID-19," South Korea Prime Minister Chung Sye-Kyun said.

    The tests are being run at 79 designated health centers, in addition to authorized private hospitals and public health labs across the country.

    “I am laying this one on CD affirmative action policies that I can guess at from 1500 miles away.”

    I have no idea whether you are right. I do, however, agree with your implication that hiring on any criterion other than merit is inviting trouble.

  78. @Anonymous
    Strain on hospital infrastructure will be not be such a huge issue me thinks.

    1/ Children are not getting sick. Almost not at all. (extremely unusual for a corona virus)

    2/ USA just doesn't have very many elderly East Asians. (ACE2 issue is the driver here no matter how taboo some want it to be)

    3/ USA just doesn't have many downscale East Asians. (Theory about west coast homeless being a hotbed doesn't compute because of lack of ACE2 receptor cells in the American homeless community.)

    The ACE-2 Theory was very applicable to SARS.

    There is some emerging genetic evidence that the virus can use a different receptor to get inside cells.

    The racial based ACE-2 distinctions probably aren’t enough — but smokers and people living in areas with heavy air pollution do have MUCH higher ACE-2 expressions.

    In Guangdong, they did around 300,0000 PCR test and only .05 showed evidence of the virus. Based on that number, they were testing everyone with a cold who came in. Pretty good evidence (if you believe the numbers) that it isn’t that widespread. That said what is usual is the course of the disease; the viral loads may not be enough to show up on PCR tests one day but two days later yes. You’d had to wait for antibody based tests to see how much exposure in the population.

    But back to ACE-2, my personal theory is this has been globally circulating since November, but you’re not seeing enough cases of viral pneumonia (lack of ace-2?) in the US to show up in the stats.

  79. @Steve Sailer
    This is like when I had cancer when I was 38. People would ask my wife, "So, Steve's like a smoker, right."

    "No."

    Then they'd get kind of depressed and thoughtful looking.

    What everybody hopes is that if you get really sick that you must have deserved your disease. And since they don't deserve a disease, that means they'll live forever.

    Then they’d get kind of depressed and thoughtful looking.

    They were probably trying to work out why else you would have deserved it. There must be something.

    • Replies: @anon
    Apart from Radiation, root canals dental implants dead teeth and heredity, there's not much else.
  80. @Lot
    It already has been disproved in its strong version. Italy is at 1100 confirmed cases and France hit 100 today.

    The strong version is also suspect because of the illogic of inferring resistance to infection based on Non-East-Asian populations having lower frequencies of alleles associated with high ACE2. The genetic processes of recombination will ensure that a fraction of the Non-East-Asian population will have ACE2 genotypes equivalent to those of East-Asians, and this fraction will presumably be as susceptible to infection as East-Asians are.

    If ACE2 is important for infection, the crucial question is whether the fraction of Non-East-Asians with genotypes like East-Asians is small enough to reduce the R0 to a level at which contact tracing and selective quarantine are enough to stop the epidemic. If not, then the Chinese-style lockdown would be required.

    The outcome depends on quantitative measures that are as yet unknown, but to call the epidemic a media hoax is not responsible at this point because it undermines public cooperation that may well be needed.

    • Agree: Lot
  81. As a thought experiment, assume China is doing everything right with this epidemic.

    That still doesn’t answer the “all or nothing” dichotomy since China has adopted the all approach.

    That’s my take after watching the video. I’d skip the first 10 minutes, if you find it slow paced.

  82. The link is to the report of the WHO team that Dr. Aylward was on. It represents the best information available. Particularly relevant is that a large majority of infections were intra-familial.

    https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

  83. @Anon7
    It's late and it's time for conspiracy theories. I have a new one I just made up.

    I've been basing my thinking thus far on what I believe to be reasonable speculation. That President Trump has been advised by people who are the best in the world at what they do, they've all had long experience with the general problem, and they have access to information that's better than we have on the open Internet. Keep Calm and Carry On. And wash your hands.

    But.

    What if the Deep State has been feeding President Trump what they know to be bad information? If one hundred thousand or even 1 million Americans need to die to get President Trump kicked out of office, then that's what it takes. It really is the CFluWhu virus.

    What's your favorite conspiracy theory?

    What’s your favorite conspiracy theory?

    That the Chinese unleashed this virus on themselves. In order to shut down the Hong Kong situation.

  84. @LondonBob
    Read an article from the lone British journalist in Tehran, Iran has shutdown, not imploded. Zionist wishful thinking.

    I doubt this Ali’s a Zionist per se.
    The full shutdown is unlikely, yes (hence the skepticism), but because Iran has faced other existential crises in its recent history and has a certain last-line preparedness. However, several of the specific claims Ali makes in his tweet thread are likely to be totally true, are shocking, and are classic tin pot third world dictatorship own-foot-shooting. Iranians are not necessarily more vulnerable but they did a lot of proud dumb things: they refused to quarantine the holy city of Qom, they refused to move on first word because they wanted to have a big election turnout, they kept meeting each other in person.
    ——–
    And yeah I am really tired of the completely unjustified triumphalism and undisguised supremacism in all these articles about how Israel (and apparently nobody else in the world) “might” do something, at some point in the future, and, whenever that comes around, all the Israel critics are going to be mighty sorry, and will voluntarily line up to receive a new drug from exterminationist supremacists who have a record of imposing medical surprises on people.

  85. @AR
    China's 1000 bed hospitals are mostly just feeding oxygen in through the nose. This is much more scalable and there is some evidence it is more effective than a ventilator for coronavirus.

    You wrote:

    China’s 1000 bed hospitals are mostly just feeding oxygen in through the nose. This is much more scalable and there is some evidence it is more effective than a ventilator for coronavirus.

    Thank you for adding this. Clyde also wrote about oxygen. When I posted yesterday I hadn’t realized that the WHO-China Joint Mission’s final report, which Dr. Aylward is previewing to some extent in the video, had been published the previous day. If I had known this I would have linked the report yesterday along with the video. I’ll link it at the bottom of this post.

    I just read the final report and found the following sentences about supplemental oxygen vs. ventilation:

    Severe cases are defined as tachypnoea (≧30 breaths/ min) or oxygen saturation ≤93% at rest, or PaO2/FIO2 <300 mmHg. Critical cases are defined as respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation, shock or other organ failure that requires intensive care. About a quarter of severe and critical cases require mechanical ventilation while the remaining 75% require only oxygen supplementation. [boldface mine]

    Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

    https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

  86. Sadly, it’s my duty to point out that this is all bullshit. Jon Rappaport nails it here:

    https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/02/26/how-to-stage-a-fake-epidemic-and-brainwash-billions-of-people/

    • Replies: @Bert
    "Rappaport Name Meaning. Jewish (Ashkenazic): most people bearing this name are descended from Avrom-Menakhem Ben-Yankev Hakoyen Rapa, who lived in Porto, Italy, at the beginning of the 16th century. The etymology of his name is uncertain but possibly from German Rappe 'raven'."

    "Rap(p)aport, Rap(p)oport, Rappeport or Rapa Porto (Hebrew: רפפורט‎) is a family name from an ashkenazi (Jewish) Kohenitic pedigree. It takes its origins in the Rapa family of Porto Mantovano located in Province of Mantua, Italy."

    Them Kohenitics can sure spin a good yarn.
  87. @Smithsonian_2

    Then they’d get kind of depressed and thoughtful looking.
     
    They were probably trying to work out why else you would have deserved it. There must be something.

    Apart from Radiation, root canals dental implants dead teeth and heredity, there’s not much else.

  88. Anonymous[159] • Disclaimer says:

    Zerohedge ongoing virus update article quote…

    …twelve more people have tested positive for the virus in the UK, including a second case of an individual believed to have caught the virus inside the country, bringing the total to 35. Health officials are trying to trace a 35-year-old man from Shenzhen who had reportedly been working in Bristol, the Guardian reports.

    All political correctness surrounding this virus needs to be dumpstered.

    PC makes you stupid and can get you killed.

  89. @Altai
    Anytime anyone says a government 'can't do that' they're wrong and their very intense need to tell you the government 'can't do that' is proof. If it can't be done, what are they so concerned about?

    The government can take your children from you, it can arrest you, it can coerce you to all kinds of things, many governments still maintain the right to conscription. The problem is we've been living under managerial politicians so long who gave it all away to neoliberal ideals after the fall of the Soviet Union that the current paradigm, which is exquisitely deliberate and designed to service the short-term greed and indulgence of the wealthy, that the mantra of TINA (There is no alternative) has triumphed.

    Everytime there has been a crisis in Europe all the supposed rules the EU operates under go out the window to deal with it. When the banking crisis hit all kinds of rules were ignored in order to make sure the bankers got their bets back with their expected winnings no matter how many countries were then delivered two or more lost generations. Many of the rules are just outright ignored by certain countries. (France admirably ignores many of the EMU rules since it would hurt it's economy and workers if it didn't and makes no efforts to bring itself back into line.)

    During the financial crisis when Italians were driving over the border into Switzerland to deposit gold and cash in Swiss banks, Schengen was ignored and Switzerland imposed checks on cars coming in. There is lots of leeway in Schengen anyway for temporary border restrictions such as those seen during the migrant march in 2015/2016, Denmark and some other countries effectively suspended Schengen for short periods. The mantra of the ECB has been 'whatever it takes' to protect the bankers from the consequences of their actions. Sadly 'whatever it takes' doesn't apply to pandemics.

    It's absolutely crazy that you buy a ticket for a direct flight from Milan to New York still. All direct flights from Milan outside Italy and particularly to major cities in other European countries should have been shut down last week, they definitely need to be shut down now. It may already be spreading in Rome. Ironically it may mean this years Eurovision song contest will be cancelled. (It's slogan this year is 'Open Up')

    One incident that hasn't been discussed much is a Danish man who appears to have contracted Covid-19 in Munich from an Italian man at a conference and the case of the Google employee who got it in Zurich. So you may have community spread in Munich and Zurich now. The reality is only a small number of people travel between countries in Europe and only a short period of time in reality is needed to weather this thing potentially burning out. It's a disgrace that they can't even ban flights from Milan or impose some border checks with Italy.

    I'll point out ICUs are already typically at capacity at any given time. China had something of an advantage here since there is such a high risk of these events happening in China that they have built a lot of them for potential flu or corona outbreaks. There is no spare capacity for respiratory pandemics elsewhere.

    I have a trip to Milan planned, no joke, that I have been dreaming about for YEARS

    And yeah, I’m going.

  90. @Dan00inMD
    Iwasaki Lab at Yale Medical School

    @VirusesImmunity

    is trying really hard to get out the word that ambient humidification is a big key to survival after becoming infected with a respiratory virus.

    They did a 2019 study that found this. Seems like the easiest thing for everyone to do. Simple as a humidifier or a pot of boiling water.

    When I got H1N1, I got so sick, I couldn’t breathe…so I grabbed a large pot and boiled water, and sat on the kitchen floor inhaling for several hours.

    That’s why I’m spending 30 minutes to an hour everyday in the Sauna in preparation to fight off Coronavirus

  91. @reiner Tor
    I forgot to mention that he was unlikely to have HIV. We also know he infected his pregnant wife. What percentage of married 38 year old heterosexuals who are just about to have kids have HIV?

    But yeah, he could have had some other chronic condition.

    38 year old man in China

    Prostitutes?

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    In Italy. A 38-year-old Italian man in Italy with a pregnant wife and no China travel history. He was alleged somewhere to have been healthy before, so no chronic conditions.
  92. Anonymous[199] • Disclaimer says:

    I have a trip to Milan planned, no joke, that I have been dreaming about for YEARS

    Did you dream about touring the garment factories? Or going to a “massage parlor”? Or eating Chinese food in an Italian setting?

    Don’t do any of that stuff and you should be OK.

    (As long as you charter your own flight)

  93. @The Wild Geese Howard
    Weapons free...light 'em up!!!!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uL5JJ7JRA4

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhJf8toRNog

    Greece is authorizing its border forces to use live ammunition. Greece has invoked an EU charter article about mutual protection. The heads of state of France, Belgium, and Nederland have tweeted support. Germany of all people is sending reinforcements through Frontex (the EU border authority).
    This is could have shocked some people back to their senses, although the objection here is still to “illegal” immigration, and there are still charity boats ferrying Africans directly across the Mediterranean.

    • Replies: @Joe Stalin
    "there are still charity boats ferrying Africans directly across the Mediterranean."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEJp2Oj0xXM
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4jIqSYtPBk
    , @HammerJack
    Did you notice, they already have their "dead baby" photo op.
  94. @Me
    38 year old man in China

    Prostitutes?

    In Italy. A 38-year-old Italian man in Italy with a pregnant wife and no China travel history. He was alleged somewhere to have been healthy before, so no chronic conditions.

  95. @reiner Tor
    Here’s the first Italian to die of the disease:

    https://i0.wp.com/www.news1.news/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/[email protected]PG

    Here’s the first Italian to die of the disease:

    Looks to me like he may have been a COPD (Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease) sufferer of the type known as a Blue Bloater. He was 78 at the time of his death. I would guess the photo was taken some years ago.

  96. @J.Ross
    Greece is authorizing its border forces to use live ammunition. Greece has invoked an EU charter article about mutual protection. The heads of state of France, Belgium, and Nederland have tweeted support. Germany of all people is sending reinforcements through Frontex (the EU border authority).
    This is could have shocked some people back to their senses, although the objection here is still to "illegal" immigration, and there are still charity boats ferrying Africans directly across the Mediterranean.

    “there are still charity boats ferrying Africans directly across the Mediterranean.”

  97. @Jonathan Mason

    The Italian “Patient One” is in intensive care. He’s a 38-year-old otherwise healthy man. He’d probably be dead in Hubei, where hospitals are overwhelmed and they don’t have the capacity to provide intensive care to patients. So yeah, the majority of cases in Europe are mild (same as in China), but there are some strange cases of relatively young and healthy people getting inexplicably sick.
     
    I don't think you can ever be sure whether press information about people's health records is accurate or not. If they were HIV positive, or diabetic, or had lupus, or asthma, that information would probably not be in the public domain.

    I just recently saw a picture of the 38-year-old Italian guy (he’s in ICU), with the face pixelated. He was running, and looked muscular. Of course there could be some chronic condition, but it seems to confirm the news that he was in good health before.

  98. Judging by the recent change in tone on the Corona subreddits, shit appears to be getting real out there:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/
    https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/

    I hope everyone else has their supplies in hand or plans to get some soon. If your local area is out of masks there is still a chance to buy some on eBay before prices get truly insane.

  99. Phylodynamics: Following molecular evolution in real time. This techique suggests that Washington State has hundreds of infections and that Covid-19 has been spreading there for about 6 weeks.

    https://twitter.com/trvrb?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

    The CDC’s politically motivated, highly inadequate guideline as to whom to test, together with its testing kit fiasco has screwed the USA.

  100. Presentation of the Federation of American Scientists on Covid-19.

    https://fas.org/ncov/

  101. @ Freddy Y

    In fact the video is probably the best single source of information I’ve found about this pandemic, and although it’s very long, I highly recommend it to you: …

    That seems to be still true. Dr. Aylward’s video-talk is great. Thanks for posting it!

    As an aside: In it Dr. Aylward says though, that there is still no pandemic.

    • Replies: @HammerJack

    Dr. Aylward says though, that there is still no pandemic.
     
    Is everyone supposed to wait until someone in particular uses the magic word? And not panic until then?

    We are in uncharted territory and we still have more questions than answers.

  102. @Twodees Partain
    Sadly, it's my duty to point out that this is all bullshit. Jon Rappaport nails it here:

    https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/02/26/how-to-stage-a-fake-epidemic-and-brainwash-billions-of-people/

    “Rappaport Name Meaning. Jewish (Ashkenazic): most people bearing this name are descended from Avrom-Menakhem Ben-Yankev Hakoyen Rapa, who lived in Porto, Italy, at the beginning of the 16th century. The etymology of his name is uncertain but possibly from German Rappe ‘raven’.”

    “Rap(p)aport, Rap(p)oport, Rappeport or Rapa Porto (Hebrew: רפפורט‎) is a family name from an ashkenazi (Jewish) Kohenitic pedigree. It takes its origins in the Rapa family of Porto Mantovano located in Province of Mantua, Italy.”

    Them Kohenitics can sure spin a good yarn.

    • Replies: @Twodees Partain
    Oh, of course. Anyone's writing can be dismissed as an eevull joo yarn if some retard prefers the government fairy tale. Go and apply that idiotic idea to the site owner's series of articles, "American Pravda".

    Look out behind you, Bertie. It's an EEVULL JOO!

    Haha. Just kidding. You should have seen your face.
  103. @J.Ross
    Greece is authorizing its border forces to use live ammunition. Greece has invoked an EU charter article about mutual protection. The heads of state of France, Belgium, and Nederland have tweeted support. Germany of all people is sending reinforcements through Frontex (the EU border authority).
    This is could have shocked some people back to their senses, although the objection here is still to "illegal" immigration, and there are still charity boats ferrying Africans directly across the Mediterranean.

    Did you notice, they already have their “dead baby” photo op.

  104. @Dieter Kief
    @ Freddy Y

    In fact the video is probably the best single source of information I’ve found about this pandemic, and although it’s very long, I highly recommend it to you: …
     
    That seems to be still true. Dr. Aylward's video-talk is great. Thanks for posting it!

    As an aside: In it Dr. Aylward says though, that there is still no pandemic.

    Dr. Aylward says though, that there is still no pandemic.

    Is everyone supposed to wait until someone in particular uses the magic word? And not panic until then?

    We are in uncharted territory and we still have more questions than answers.

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    Dr. Aylwar is deeply impressed by the Chinese achievements in avoiding a pandemic - and - knock on wood! - hopefully rightfully so even in hindsight from - next February, let's say. Except for this remark - I agree with what you write.
  105. @HammerJack

    Dr. Aylward says though, that there is still no pandemic.
     
    Is everyone supposed to wait until someone in particular uses the magic word? And not panic until then?

    We are in uncharted territory and we still have more questions than answers.

    Dr. Aylwar is deeply impressed by the Chinese achievements in avoiding a pandemic – and – knock on wood! – hopefully rightfully so even in hindsight from – next February, let’s say. Except for this remark – I agree with what you write.

  106. @Bert
    "Rappaport Name Meaning. Jewish (Ashkenazic): most people bearing this name are descended from Avrom-Menakhem Ben-Yankev Hakoyen Rapa, who lived in Porto, Italy, at the beginning of the 16th century. The etymology of his name is uncertain but possibly from German Rappe 'raven'."

    "Rap(p)aport, Rap(p)oport, Rappeport or Rapa Porto (Hebrew: רפפורט‎) is a family name from an ashkenazi (Jewish) Kohenitic pedigree. It takes its origins in the Rapa family of Porto Mantovano located in Province of Mantua, Italy."

    Them Kohenitics can sure spin a good yarn.

    Oh, of course. Anyone’s writing can be dismissed as an eevull joo yarn if some retard prefers the government fairy tale. Go and apply that idiotic idea to the site owner’s series of articles, “American Pravda”.

    Look out behind you, Bertie. It’s an EEVULL JOO!

    Haha. Just kidding. You should have seen your face.

  107. Bet you a pack of 1960’s Picayunes that the epidemic will hit the U.S. hard. Maybe you will even dig out that old auto painting respirator. I’d hate to lose one of the few on here who understands the South.

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