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Does the Spread of Tom Hanks Disease Inevitably Slow as We Run Out of Tom Hankses?
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Back on March 18th I wrote about what comedian Norm MacDonald calls Tom Hanks Disease:

One reason awareness grew so rapidly is because of the surge in celebrities testing positive for COVID-19, such as Tom Hanks. …

At present, this seems to be a disease that spreads first among the affluent, energetic, and popular. Normally, it’s nice to go through life jetting around to places where everybody wants to shake your hand. But not at the moment.

Nothing is ever certain about viral epidemics, but this one appears to be likely to spread down from the top to the masses unless stringent action is taken very quickly.

But … perhaps there is in this case something epidemiologically different about popular people like Tom Hanks?

First, I want to thank everybody who has already fired off a comment to the effect that “Tom Hanks is NOT popular with me.” Keep doing what you do. Don’t ever change.

Second, I suspect the epidemiologists and public health experts got blindsided by a disease that, by its take-off phase of community spread, was transmitted most not by the Marginalized and the Vulnerable (as was expected, judging by all the February op-eds about how racism is, as always, the real menace), but among the respectable.

AIDS has had the most effect on the worldview of the public health establishment in recent decades, and the lessons many took from it were that the public couldn’t be trusted with the truth about who was spreading it (needle junkies and anonymous sodomy addicts). You could see something similar with Ebola — America doesn’t really need a lot of flights from Kinshasa, but in the Establishment’s view, the sheer unimportance of travel back and forth with central Africa meant that banning flights from the Congo would be a moral evil of the highest order.

To both the Establishment and its handful of unpopular critics, the next epidemic would of course spread from the fringes of society.

So, in a mental atmosphere that has only gotten Woker in the six years since Ebola, it’s not surprising that few were thinking about how to model a pandemic that early on tends to be most prevalent among people whom many other people want to shake their hands.

But instead we got a virus that in February and March seemed to be transmitted most in the West by people at the core of core social networks, the kind of people who get invited frequently to leadership conferences, ski vacations, sales presentations, movie premieres, choir practices, soccer games, funerals, Prime Minister’s Question Time, and the like.

That seems to have flummoxed many people.

But what would this say about models predicting the spread of this novel disease?

Epidemiological models tend to assume that different germs have different rates of transmissibility for biological reasons (e.g., measles very high, the novel coronavirus quite high, flu fairly moderate), which can then be altered by changed policies, such as social distancing.

But most models assume that human beings are fungible. This is partly due to concerns about admitting the existence of racial differences, which would be the Worst Thing Ever, and partly due to the need to simplify.

But what if it turned out that race was a minor factor, but popularity was crucially important? In this perspective, Tom Hanks, Idris Elba, Prince Charles, Boris Johnson, Kevin Durant, Chris Cuomo, and Rand Paul are rather like each other on the most medically relevant dimension that on, say, March 1, lots of people wanted to shake their hand.

But what happens to the spread rate of the disease as the most popular in society either get it or hunker down? Does it continue to spread as rapidly as it gets down to the ho-hum bulk of the population?

So, the idea is that Tom Hanks is a more “precious” node to the spread of the virus than most of the rest of us, because not that many people want to shake our hands.

Here is David Madore’s blog post giving the equations for thinking about this.

 
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  1. Hahaha. Modi is letting us have access to Hydroxychloroquine in return for more Indian visas.

    We don’t even know if Hydroxychloroquine works. Why should Trump have to negotiate with Modi when he could just threaten him to make him fold.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/india-makes-quid-pro-quo-demand-linked-export-trumps-miracle-coronavirus-drug

    • LOL: WHAT
    • Replies: @Glaivester
    It sounds less like they are demanding more visas, and rather working to protect those already on visas. Not optimal, but it could be much worse.
    , @Mr McKenna
    Ha indeed. 'You can have this export if you agree to take this other export.'

    As though we don't have enough Indians (and Chinese) already.

    Why don't they stop manufacturing so many?

    Is birth control totally unheard of?
    , @Reg Cæsar

    Hahaha. Modi is letting us have access to Hydroxychloroquine in return for more Indian visas.

     

    I'm not accepting pharmaceuticals from India until they start taking their poo to the loo.
    , @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    Why? Because if we don't, then where would US companies expect to fill all the STEM jobs? Where would all the workers come from? Not like they could actually, you know, go and hire American born workers. Perish the thought.

    Regarding access to Hydroxychloroquine, it's pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and the success of H1B Visa Program.

    , @WHAT
    Threaten with what exactly, more of his meaningless words? Expelling H1B pajeets maybe, as if this new corporate MAGA will not eat him alive instantly?

    Trump has nothing on Modi, nothing on Putin, nothing on Xi.
    Trump is the quintessential bitch.

    , @The Alarmist

    Hahaha. Modi is letting us have access to Hydroxychloroquine in return for more Indian visas.
     
    So, for oil, which Trump assures us we don't really need, we put our boots on the other guys' ground. For life-saving medicine, we let the other guys put their boots on our ground.
    , @anon
    Somebody has to buy all that dead people's real estate. BTW, Stanley Chera, NYC realtor and friend of Trump has died.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/business/stanley-chera-coronavirus-trump/index.html
    , @Travis
    we knew ventilators would not work , yet Trump ordered US firms to manufacture thousands of ventilators....despite any evidence that ventilators would save lives

    Trump should invoked the Defense Production Act to force US pharmaceutical firms to produce more hydroxychoroquine. In New York and New Jersey hydroxychloroquine is not available at any Pharmacies, and azithromycin, is in very limited supply and almost unavailable today.

    Americans will feel safer going back to work if they know they will have access to treatments if they get sick. Today we even have a shortage of Tonic water and zinc. Until we have a supply of these prophylactics many Americans will be afraid to work or go to restaurants of take public transportation.
  2. Tom Who?

    • Replies: @The Grim Joker
    Tom STANKS ! STINKS ? SHANKS ? Sorry I have to check the spelling.

    Funny thing is that the rich and famous are all "coming out" and telling us they tested positive, they are in quarantine etc , their wife has a cough, their pet parrot the sniffles and the fans and other rabble rush in with an odious "get well soon, we love you" or some other idiot comment. Then we are subjected to a regular dose of updates as to their condition.

    They want us to know "they are with us in these trying times" blah blah blah.

    The whole thing is such a lot of shit but the riff raff gobble up this rubbish. I could care less if the virus crawled into his ear and exited his anus but that is just me. I guess I am heartless huh ??

  3. Depends on how the ho-hum act to social distancing orders. Hint: if they don’t obey them, the disease shows how structurally racist America is.

  4. • Thanks: Ron Mexico, Neoconned
    • Replies: @moshe
    I checked out his twitter feed and it's slightly interesting. It also pointed out to me something that Steve and many commentators here deserve credit for which is cutting down in traditional "enemy tribe" terms like "the left", "the democrats", etc.

    What we're dealing with here is a world placed under marshall law for iffy reasons that are absolutely magnified by political recourse to fear.

    Remember how pissed off people were that a presidential candidate once tried to ban the Super Big Gulp?

    Well now - for your own good - walking outside is prohibited.

    To return to the old tribeswould be a mistake.

    The new tribes [and none need be evil if they can be simply self interested or inaccurate or more trusting if authority, etc] don't have generally accepted names yet (which is probably a good thing) but, at their extremes they are those who want to have the freedom of assembly and those who want to ban slutshame hand shakers.

    Hopefully we can work this out in a spirit of amity (and thus far we have, though largely by surrendering to the Fearful) but turning this into a business-as-usual foodfight about Republicans vs Democrats would be disappointing.
    , @Thea
    At our hospitals they’ve cut then hours of all the part-Time hourly staff
  5. But is it actually clear whether celebrity-types are all that more likely to be infected than ordinary people?

    We’ve now had well over 20K deaths. If we assume a 1% death rate (which may be high), that suggests over 2M infections maybe 3 weeks ago. So even with lockdowns and everything, I’d think we have at least 3-4M infections today, or something like 1% of the American population. Perhaps even closer to 2% if the death rate is actually lower.

    If someone made a list of reasonably-famous celebrities, surely there would be many hundreds, even thousands of names. And only a tiny handful have gotten infected (except maybe for the ones living in an ultra-hard-hit area like NYC). Probably more than 1%, maybe even more than 2%, but probably nothing close to 5%.

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna

    If someone made a list of reasonably-famous celebrities, surely there would be many hundreds, even thousands of names.
     
    Bret Easton Ellis did this in Glamorama. It went on for pages and pages, and early on the reader realizes that he 'knows' more celebrities than he does people in real life. Sobering, or something.
    , @Harry Baldwin
    On his podcast, Scott Adams challenged his listeners to name any celebrity under 70 years old who has died from COVID-19. People mention Joe Diffie, 61, but Adams wouldn't count him because he'd never heard of him. I never had either, until his demise.
    , @Wielgus
    I think celebs are more likely to be tested. And can afford the test whose cost can be over 3,000 dollars.
    , @reiner Tor
    I believe the South Korean data are the biggest and fullest sample, and they show that with good hospital care the mortality rate for those infected is 2%. Even if that's a slight overestimate, I'd think that most countries won't be able to provide South Korean level healthcare - perhaps not even the US, what with the chaos in certain areas and the overall disorganized nature of the American response so far.

    However, obviously death rates are lower 3 weeks into the infection, so your 1% death rate might be the very best estimate - in other words, in the exponential phase, it might be as good as any to guess the number of infected 3 weeks ago.
  6. jb says:

    A friend of mine in low incidence California is just emerging from a four week bout. She is an unemployed single mother, nobody’s elite, but she’s working on it, and as best we can figure out she got the bug at a vaguely new agey conference at the beginning of March, which had about 50 attendees, all sitting next to one another in cramped auditoriums listening to various speakers. I.e., sort of a downmarket version of the Tom Hanks experience. (The conference organizers say that other attendees haven’t reported this, but my friend knows one other person who was there and who has it now, so who knows what to believe).

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    She is an unemployed single mother, nobody’s elite, but she’s working on it...
     
    What is she working on?
  7. @Tor597
    Hahaha. Modi is letting us have access to Hydroxychloroquine in return for more Indian visas.

    We don't even know if Hydroxychloroquine works. Why should Trump have to negotiate with Modi when he could just threaten him to make him fold.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/india-makes-quid-pro-quo-demand-linked-export-trumps-miracle-coronavirus-drug

    It sounds less like they are demanding more visas, and rather working to protect those already on visas. Not optimal, but it could be much worse.

    • Replies: @The Germ Theory of Disease
    They want to "protect" the H1B's from HAVING TO GO HOME TO INDIA. You see, India is so totally equal, and so totally NOT a sh!thole that the loyal, proud sons of India have to be protected from having to go home and actually live there.
  8. But what would this say about models predicting the spread of this novel disease?

    Leave Jenny McCarthy out of this.

    • LOL: Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    • Replies: @Pericles
    Oh she might be laughing. "So you've had your 100 toxxic vaxx injections, how's that working out for ya?"
  9. @Tor597
    Hahaha. Modi is letting us have access to Hydroxychloroquine in return for more Indian visas.

    We don't even know if Hydroxychloroquine works. Why should Trump have to negotiate with Modi when he could just threaten him to make him fold.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/india-makes-quid-pro-quo-demand-linked-export-trumps-miracle-coronavirus-drug

    Ha indeed. ‘You can have this export if you agree to take this other export.’

    As though we don’t have enough Indians (and Chinese) already.

    Why don’t they stop manufacturing so many?

    Is birth control totally unheard of?

    • Replies: @bomag

    Why don’t they stop manufacturing so many?
     
    All the better with which to conquer us.

    America is seen as place to be fleeced; either through a phone scam or direct demographic replacement.
    , @Clyde
    The US-Canada had so few Indians that it was virgin land for Europeans. TODAY-- America has so few inhabitants (by Chi-Hindu standards) that it is virgin land to be conquered by Asians. "The scramble for America" was how Steve put it. https://www.takimag.com/article/the-scramble-for-america/
  10. “But what if it turned out that race was a minor factor, but popularity was crucially important? ”

    For the rate of spreading the virus, perhaps. But then, if all racial groups are equal in how their immune systems adapt to the virus, if the nurture view holds true, then all racial groups would tend to die of the virus at the same exact rate.

    But that’s not what is (at present) occurring. Some racial groups have a better chance of surviving COVID-19, while other racial groups are more susceptible to dying from it.

    • Replies: @Jack D

    But then, if all racial groups are equal [in how their immune systems adapt to the virus]
     
    If there's one thing that's clear, it's that all racial groups are not equal in just about anything but much of our society it built around pretending that the elephant in the room isn't there. "What elephant, I don't see any elephant. What are you talking about? You must be some kind of racist who sees imaginary elephants everywhere. (Elephant crashes into bookcase and crushes coffee table)." When you do this for medical decisions it's particularly bad, verging on the unethical but in any society the Holy Tenets of that society that must be upheld at all costs by the power structure are often more important than whether particular individuals live or die.
  11. @Tor597
    Hahaha. Modi is letting us have access to Hydroxychloroquine in return for more Indian visas.

    We don't even know if Hydroxychloroquine works. Why should Trump have to negotiate with Modi when he could just threaten him to make him fold.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/india-makes-quid-pro-quo-demand-linked-export-trumps-miracle-coronavirus-drug

    Hahaha. Modi is letting us have access to Hydroxychloroquine in return for more Indian visas.

    I’m not accepting pharmaceuticals from India until they start taking their poo to the loo.

  12. @Tor597
    Hahaha. Modi is letting us have access to Hydroxychloroquine in return for more Indian visas.

    We don't even know if Hydroxychloroquine works. Why should Trump have to negotiate with Modi when he could just threaten him to make him fold.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/india-makes-quid-pro-quo-demand-linked-export-trumps-miracle-coronavirus-drug

    Why? Because if we don’t, then where would US companies expect to fill all the STEM jobs? Where would all the workers come from? Not like they could actually, you know, go and hire American born workers. Perish the thought.

    Regarding access to Hydroxychloroquine, it’s pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and the success of H1B Visa Program.

    • Replies: @Cloudbuster
    Because if we don’t, then where would US companies expect to fill all the STEM jobs? Where would all the workers come from?

    Bits rotting in the server farms!
  13. “AIDS has had the most effect on the worldview of the public health establishment in recent decades, and the lessons many took from it were that the public couldn’t be trusted with the truth about who was spreading it (needle junkies and anonymous sodomy addicts).”

    This was well documented in Michael Fumento’s 1992 best selling book “The Myth of Heterosexual AIDS”, even down to when Fumento estimated that the virus would peak (around the late late nineties, into the early 2000’s, which it did). The book told the truth in bare terms. The medical establishment, including Dr. Anthony Fauci owes Michael Fumento an official public apology.

    • Replies: @Morton's toes

    AIDS has had the most effect on the worldview of the public health establishment in recent decades, and the lessons many took from it were that the public couldn’t be trusted with the truth about who was spreading it (needle junkies and anonymous sodomy addicts
     
    Junkies and sodomists are not legally protected classes but in this instance they were for all practical purposes and it was the ultimate faux pas to mention that almost everybody who had the disease was a sodomist or a junkie. Even to say "needle junkies and . . . " is a bit of a cushioned blow as the truth was/is a SODOMIST or a junkie. It's like the opposite of lung cancer and smoking where the current practice is they almost always mention the smoking status when they report lung cancer deaths and cigarette smokers are the opposite of a legally protected class in that they are one of the few classes of people we are permitted and even encouraged to publicly denigrate a priori.

    . . . Dr. Anthony Fauci . . .
     
    If the BePowers wanted me to believe this covid was different from sars, west nile, h1n1, and zika they would not have this jackass anywhere close to the operation. He is an AIDS entrepreneur. Kind of like a vulture except worse. Is there a snake species that does the vulture niche and mostly consumes carrion? That would be Fauci.
    , @Alfred
    This was well documented in Michael Fumento’s 1992 best selling book “The Myth of Heterosexual AIDS”

    Thank you Yojimbo/Zatoichi for making an extremely important point. I had a patented way of preventing the spread of HIV. I received FDA approval many years ago. Sadly, it is based on the fact that a subset of the population (homosexuals) are the ones who pass it on to other males and to females. It is a concept that is anathema to medical professionals who have a very poor understanding of mathematics and simulations.

    There is a fundamental misunderstanding about “Herd Immunity”. Like in all networked systems – such as human society – some nodes are more busy than others.

    A person such as Tom Hanks gets invited to more “jollies” in a week than I do in a decade. That means that his chance of getting infected through breathing or handshaking is vastly higher than mine. When he gets infected, he can pass it on to far more people in a month than I could in a lifetime. Once the active “nodes” become either resistant or die, they cease being a bridge for the infection and the disease stops spreading.

    The point I am getting at is that if 15% of the people in a town in Germany have antibodies, the infection will stop. This is because these 15% compose the most socially active members of the community. They will be the insulator that will protect the less extrovert people.

    A good analogy is the internet where there are a vast number of websites that get hardly any visits and a much smaller number that get 80% of the traffic. Tom Hanks is like FT.com or something like that. Donald Trump is more like Yahoo.com. To prevent the internet from working satisfactorily (i.e. pass on infections), it suffices to shut down Google.com and a handful of others.

    https://image.shutterstock.com/image-photo/kiev-ukraine-june-20-2019-260nw-1615278826.jpg

  14. @Ron Unz
    But is it actually clear whether celebrity-types are all that more likely to be infected than ordinary people?

    We've now had well over 20K deaths. If we assume a 1% death rate (which may be high), that suggests over 2M infections maybe 3 weeks ago. So even with lockdowns and everything, I'd think we have at least 3-4M infections today, or something like 1% of the American population. Perhaps even closer to 2% if the death rate is actually lower.

    If someone made a list of reasonably-famous celebrities, surely there would be many hundreds, even thousands of names. And only a tiny handful have gotten infected (except maybe for the ones living in an ultra-hard-hit area like NYC). Probably more than 1%, maybe even more than 2%, but probably nothing close to 5%.

    If someone made a list of reasonably-famous celebrities, surely there would be many hundreds, even thousands of names.

    Bret Easton Ellis did this in Glamorama. It went on for pages and pages, and early on the reader realizes that he ‘knows’ more celebrities than he does people in real life. Sobering, or something.

  15. That’s how New York is different from Philadelphia, and the rest of the country. There are lots of Tom Hanks in New York.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    And a lot more so than 30 years ago. When my friend's brother signed with the New York Yankees in the 1990s, he was the only Yankee who lived in Manhattan. Now, quite a few of them do.
  16. @Rrrrrroger
    That’s how New York is different from Philadelphia, and the rest of the country. There are lots of Tom Hanks in New York.

    And a lot more so than 30 years ago. When my friend’s brother signed with the New York Yankees in the 1990s, he was the only Yankee who lived in Manhattan. Now, quite a few of them do.

    • Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    To be fair, during their famous '61 season, both NY Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle (along with NY Bob Cerv shared an apartment together in Queens before Mantle moved back to Manhattan. DiMaggio lived in Manhattan for a while as well, as did Derek Jeter.
    , @anon
    The NY Knicks still have their practice facility deep in the suburbs, a relic of the 80s and early 90s social trends. Meanwhile the Brooklyn Net's is in Brooklyn (near Manhattan). It's widely viewed as a competitive advantage (but the Knicks' having a bad owner is probably even a bigger detriment).

    As to celebs being super spreaders-- even if they are all immune tomorrow, it's not going to change the numbers at all. Kind of like IQ-- the next generation of geniuses isn't particularly drawn from the current crop of geniuses. The sheer number of kids to born to "plain" parents merely in top 1% or top 10% swamps the super genes.

    , @ScarletNumber

    When my friend’s brother signed with the New York Yankees in the 1990s
     
    From prior posts this would seem to be Black Jack McDowell, although you've never explicitly said so.
  17. This paper calculates an R0 of 5.7 in pre-lockdown Wuhan.
    https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article
    Does Wuhan have a lot of celebrities?

    • Replies: @greysquirrell
    He is surely referring to the innitial spread of the virus in the West.
  18. Tom Hanks? I really hate that idiot.
    Why do you promote him as this popular all American hero Steve?
    You and Michael Jackson and that weirdo John Travolta need to come out of the closet, Steve.

    • Agree: Clyde
    • LOL: AnonAnon
    • Replies: @Clyde

    Tom Hanks? I really hate that idiot.
    Why do you promote him as this popular all American hero Steve?
    You and Michael Jackson and that weirdo John Travolta need to come out of the closet, Steve.
     
    I never see Hanks movies. He was in that Philadelphia AIDs movie that Hollyweird loved him for. He won all kinds of awards for that drek. And played gay on a TV series. Closet Case closed.
  19. @Steve Sailer
    And a lot more so than 30 years ago. When my friend's brother signed with the New York Yankees in the 1990s, he was the only Yankee who lived in Manhattan. Now, quite a few of them do.

    To be fair, during their famous ’61 season, both NY Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle (along with NY Bob Cerv shared an apartment together in Queens before Mantle moved back to Manhattan. DiMaggio lived in Manhattan for a while as well, as did Derek Jeter.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    To be fair, during their famous ’61 season, both NY Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle (along with NY Bob Cerv shared an apartment together in Queens before Mantle moved back to Manhattan. DiMaggio lived in Manhattan for a while as well, as did Derek Jeter.
     
    What parts of Manhattan did they live in?
  20. @Ron Unz
    But is it actually clear whether celebrity-types are all that more likely to be infected than ordinary people?

    We've now had well over 20K deaths. If we assume a 1% death rate (which may be high), that suggests over 2M infections maybe 3 weeks ago. So even with lockdowns and everything, I'd think we have at least 3-4M infections today, or something like 1% of the American population. Perhaps even closer to 2% if the death rate is actually lower.

    If someone made a list of reasonably-famous celebrities, surely there would be many hundreds, even thousands of names. And only a tiny handful have gotten infected (except maybe for the ones living in an ultra-hard-hit area like NYC). Probably more than 1%, maybe even more than 2%, but probably nothing close to 5%.

    On his podcast, Scott Adams challenged his listeners to name any celebrity under 70 years old who has died from COVID-19. People mention Joe Diffie, 61, but Adams wouldn’t count him because he’d never heard of him. I never had either, until his demise.

    • Replies: @Peter Akuleyev
    Scott Adams probably wouldn't count Adam Schlesinger (52) either, but that's because Scott has no musical taste.
    , @poolside
    People mention Joe Diffie, 61, but Adams wouldn’t count him because he’d never heard of him. I never had either, until his demise.

    Doesn't really matter now, but Joe Diffie was very well-known in country music. During the height of his popularity in the 1990s, he had 35 singles on the Billboard charts, including five No. 1s and 12 others that made the top 10. He also had two albums certified platinum and two certified gold, which used to be a big deal back when people bought records.

    In addition, he co-wrote a number of other charted songs recorded by other artists. And in 1988, he won a Grammy in collaboration with Marty Stuart. He was inducted into the Grand Ole Opry in 1993.

    All in all, a pretty solid career. It's tough for country artists to achieve the same level of awareness as a rapper or pop diva, but to much of the country, Diffie would be considered a "celebrity."
  21. These guys certainly interface with the public a lot but plenty of famous people don’t have covid-19. I’d look for a second factor like that they love, love, love Chinese food.

  22. AIDS has had the most effect on the worldview of the public health establishment in recent decades, and the lessons many took from it were that the public couldn’t be trusted with the truth about who was spreading it (needle junkies and anonymous sodomy addicts).

    Tom Hanks starred in PHILADELPHIA in the early 90’s in what might appear to the casual rube observer as a cynically shrewd pay-to-play bargain with Hollywood’s gay mafia (star in this AIDS propaganda piece and you’ll get an Oscar plus we’ll make you 5x the star as the much better-looking, infinitely more talented Daniel Day Lewis). But far from venally knuckling-under to the 1% power elite of anonymous sodomy addicts, St. Tom was actually playing a bit of 4D chess. See, it was his idea to throw in that shirt-baring scene where his lawyer character reveals a bunch of Kaposi’s sarcoma lesions all over his chest- blessedly kissable stigmata of the AIDS Holocaust if you’re some Hollywood weirdo fruit, but disgusting markers of a putrescent lifestyle to just about everybody else. And so did St. Tom singlehandedly delay the acceptance of gay marriage for over 25 years!

    Seriously, I have nothing personal against Hanks, because I realize I have absolutely nothing personal on him at all! He is simply a figment of our media-addled collective consciousness with the only certainty being that his aw-shucks, nice-guy Mr. Norman Rockwell Americana persona has proven itself useful over the years to those with real money and power, which is why he’s been asked to reprise it again and again. What man lies beneath that veneer I will never, nor do I care ever, to know.

    • Replies: @Servant of Gla'aki

    Tom singlehandedly delay the acceptance of gay marriage for over 25 years!
     
    An amusing theory, to be sure...but one I can't address, because I am a 49-year-old straight man, and thus have never seen this film. I'm pretty sure only Boomers, and people with a vested interest in gay cinema ("homos") have ever seen it. Maybe a few girls too?
    , @Inquiring Mind
    "What man lies beneath that veneer"

    A relative of Abraham Lincoln?
    , @TheMediumIsTheMassage
    What's more degenerate: being a guy and having a sex with a bunch of guys, or divorce-raping your husband and destroying your family, raising your kids without a father, etc. because you wanted to "find yourself"? Which is more harmful for society?
  23. Anonymous[222] • Disclaimer says:

    Steve, you’re over thinking this one:

    Basically, it’s just the random factor – true for all airborne viral respiratory illnesses, such as the flu, colds etc – combined with the exponential law, combined with the vagaries of social intercourse.
    A lot of noise at the beginning, but it ‘evens itself out’ at the end due to the interplay of all these factors, the law of averages, and the fact that man is a social creature.

    Think of ‘7 degrees of Kevin Bacon’, or even Einstein’s explanation of ‘Brownian motion’, the ‘random walk’ theory of gas molecule motion, the kinetic theory of gases.
    Basically, a high degree of randomness, instituted by one amongst the multitude, has its own uniformity caused by sheer weight of numbers, and in the case of our Darwinian cousins, the virus, – the act of massive replication when sufficient human meat is available.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    Basically, it’s just the random factor – true for all airborne viral respiratory illnesses, such as the flu, colds etc – combined with the exponential law, combined with the vagaries of social intercourse.
     
    The Wuhan virus is not an airborne viral illness.
    , @Alfred
    Think of ‘7 degrees of Kevin Bacon’, or even Einstein’s explanation of ‘Brownian motion’, the ‘random walk’ theory of gas molecule motion, the kinetic theory of gases.

    I beg to disagree. There is randomness in social connectedness but it is a very skewed type of randomness. Some people see and touch far more people in a day than I do in in a year. Think of a GP. Think of a ticket collector on a train. Think of Tom Hanks.
  24. anon[282] • Disclaimer says:
    @Steve Sailer
    And a lot more so than 30 years ago. When my friend's brother signed with the New York Yankees in the 1990s, he was the only Yankee who lived in Manhattan. Now, quite a few of them do.

    The NY Knicks still have their practice facility deep in the suburbs, a relic of the 80s and early 90s social trends. Meanwhile the Brooklyn Net’s is in Brooklyn (near Manhattan). It’s widely viewed as a competitive advantage (but the Knicks’ having a bad owner is probably even a bigger detriment).

    As to celebs being super spreaders– even if they are all immune tomorrow, it’s not going to change the numbers at all. Kind of like IQ– the next generation of geniuses isn’t particularly drawn from the current crop of geniuses. The sheer number of kids to born to “plain” parents merely in top 1% or top 10% swamps the super genes.

    • Replies: @ScarletNumber
    The Knicks used to practice in East Orange, New Jersey, at a college that no longer exists. Then they moved up to SUNY Purchase, which is right off of the Hutchinson River Parkway, which is the road to Connecticut that Steve mentioned a few weeks ago. Now they practice in a dedicated facility that they share with the Rangers which is located off of Saw Mill River Parkway. Both facilities are about a 45 minute drive from MSG.

    As you mention, the Nets facility is in Brooklyn, just like the team. The practice facility is on Gowanus Bay, about 15 minutes away from their arena. They used to practice at a dedicated facility in New Jersey that is now a YMCA and before that they would rent space at colleges or APA Trucking in North Bergen.
  25. “First, I want to thank everybody who has already fired off a comment to the effect that “Tom Hanks is NOT popular with me.” Keep doing what you do. Don’t ever change.”

    But they never said that. They said Tom Hanks isn’t well liked by me.

    You are usually more intellectually honest than this.

    joe

    • Troll: ScarletNumber
    • Replies: @The Germ Theory of Disease
    Psst, now go ask Wittgenstein whether or not a hot dog is a sandwich.

    (GIGGLES TO THE OTHER KIDS). This is gonna be gooood!!
    , @For what it's worth
    Like Steve said: Don't ever change.
    , @ScarletNumber
    Case in point
  26. @Ron Unz
    But is it actually clear whether celebrity-types are all that more likely to be infected than ordinary people?

    We've now had well over 20K deaths. If we assume a 1% death rate (which may be high), that suggests over 2M infections maybe 3 weeks ago. So even with lockdowns and everything, I'd think we have at least 3-4M infections today, or something like 1% of the American population. Perhaps even closer to 2% if the death rate is actually lower.

    If someone made a list of reasonably-famous celebrities, surely there would be many hundreds, even thousands of names. And only a tiny handful have gotten infected (except maybe for the ones living in an ultra-hard-hit area like NYC). Probably more than 1%, maybe even more than 2%, but probably nothing close to 5%.

    I think celebs are more likely to be tested. And can afford the test whose cost can be over 3,000 dollars.

    • Agree: Kyle
    • Replies: @Jack D
    Where are you getting $3,000 from? Covid tests (to the extent that they are available at all) are generally being given at no cost to the patient. The cost to the insurer or government is far less than $3,000. Long term there is no reason to think that the cost of a test should be more than $5 or even less but even at present it's nowhere close to $3,000. Maybe there are some hospitals that put that number on their bills the same way that they try to charge $30 you for a 3 cent aspirin but in reality they rarely get anyone to pay list price for the $30 aspirin.
    , @TheMediumIsTheMassage
    My best friend works at a boutique PR firm that specializes in celebrities are they now telling their clients NOT to reveal if they've had it unless they've been seriously hospitalized. People are getting sick of the way celebrities can shelter in their giant mansions with their millions and them getting mild cases of coronavirus seems to add insult to injury. Idris Elba got a lot of backlash for having access to tests. JLo, Ellen, and others have been attacked for posting pictures of themselves at home in a massive compound. Gaga is just now having rapidly escalating PR nightmare for urging world leaders to donate vaccines (??) to third world countries. In general, commoner-celeb relations seem to be quite tense, coronavirus has disrupted the normal aspirational relationship and people are looking for someone to take their fear/frustration out on. So there are a bunch who also have it but you'll never find out, except maybe in like 5 years if they have a book to promote or something.
  27. Had we had timely testing and tracking, for instance identifying the steps to get from Tom Hanks to Joe the Janitor, we would all know exactly how many degrees of separation we are from Kevin Bacon.

    (Has he tested negative?)

  28. https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2020/03/18/bonus-tara-smith-on-coronavirus-pandemics-and-what-we-can-do/

    With influenza, children are huge drivers of the infection, I mean anyone who has kids…

    0:30:37 SC: Yeah.

    0:30:37 TS: Knows kids are so germy and you’re always sick when you’re a parent, and they’re just starting daycare, kindergarten or something, and oh, it’s horrible. They can be again, infectious well before they show symptoms, and then even after they recover after they have been sick, and now they’re not feeling ill anymore, they can still be shedding virus, so they can still go out and spread that to grandma or somebody else even if they feel fine

    Children are immunologically naive, but massively strong. They are the virtually indestructible hub. from which immunity comes but they have been isolated.

    So, the idea is that Tom Hanks is a more “precious” node to the spread of the virus than most of the rest of us, because not that many people want to shake our hands.

    Hanks is old enough that if he got it he would know. He does get invited to many parties, and parties are about the best place to catch a respiratory virus. Literally half the porn stars (consider what they do on an average day on the job)in America are off work with the flu after attending the annual industry convention in Vegas, because it involves non stop attending of parties. Also celebrities (and skiers) travel, which is tiring, and you are more lively to catch something when fatigued and attending parties. Boris surely was tired.

    Gregory Cochran: “AT this point, the virus population will experience selection for variants with increased capacity to spread through the human population.”

    Covid-19 has been not in humans very long and is probably changing fairly rapidly

    Flatten the Curve was intended to avoid hospital overwhelming, well it seems to have done that. But the down side is the lockdown means very few people are immune to COVID-19, so if it comes back far more virulent in October as the Spanish Flu did, the Flatten the Curve strategy may turn out to been overdone.

    Paul Ewald: COVID-19 may evolve greater virulence by circulating in a population of people kept in close, unhygienic quarters, such as the estimated one million Uighur Muslims being held in detention camps in Xinjiang, north-west China./blockquote>

  29. “Disaster Gentrification”

    Justin Timberlake and Jessica Biel have decided to ride out the virus in Montana.

    “These moves have been a huge concern for us,” Alan Morgan, chief executive officer of the National Rural Health Association (NRHA), told NBC News. “It’s such a bad idea for upper income urban people to hunker down in these areas and potentially place added pressure on a health care system that was designed for primary care and general surgery, not for pandemic surge response.”

    https://www.nbcnews.com/pop-culture/pop-culture-news/some-celebrities-are-quarantining-rural-areas-where-medical-infrastructure-severely-n1181076

    • Replies: @Pericles
    Ever since before the Decamerone, rich people have bought bug-out properties in rural areas. Alan Morgan in this respect is like the Islam-loving authoritarian PM of New Zealand complaining about all the bunkers in beautiful prime locations.

    (It would be smarter to point out the health facilities may not currently be at the level expected or even demanded by Justin and Jessica, but donations are gratefully accepted.)

  30. @Harry Baldwin
    On his podcast, Scott Adams challenged his listeners to name any celebrity under 70 years old who has died from COVID-19. People mention Joe Diffie, 61, but Adams wouldn't count him because he'd never heard of him. I never had either, until his demise.

    Scott Adams probably wouldn’t count Adam Schlesinger (52) either, but that’s because Scott has no musical taste.

  31. Department of Health in Georgia changed its covid map from number of cases ( which made Atlanta look like the epicenter ) to ‘cases per hundred thousand’. The effect was dramatic. The entire region around Dougherty County is now dark blue.

    https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

    The reason is these rural counties only have 20 or 30,000 people in them. Some less than 5,000 so having a 100 or more cases is a health catastrophe for them. It really highlights the effect that janitors funeral had and is still having on SW Georgia.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    That poor Georgia janitor's funeral was way back on February 29, which was only a week after Wall Street finally noticed the coronavirus. My last social engagement was playing golf on March 5, after which I canceled going to see Norm MacDonald on March 7 and meeting with a reader on March 8. But the janitor's funeral was well before even worry-warts like me were fully locked down.
  32. @Reg Cæsar

    But what would this say about models predicting the spread of this novel disease?

     

    Leave Jenny McCarthy out of this.

    Oh she might be laughing. “So you’ve had your 100 toxxic vaxx injections, how’s that working out for ya?”

    • Agree: flyingtiger
    • Replies: @Jack D
    It will work out great if we get a Coronavirus vaccine in another year or so (as seems likely or at least there is a strong possibility) but she and her family are still going to remain vulnerable. The only real issue will be that if there are enough idiots like her then herd immunity won't be achievable and there will still be periodic outbreaks that start at Disneyland and the like.

    I might get Covid but at least I'm not getting polio or diphtheria or tetanus.
  33. @unit472
    Department of Health in Georgia changed its covid map from number of cases ( which made Atlanta look like the epicenter ) to 'cases per hundred thousand'. The effect was dramatic. The entire region around Dougherty County is now dark blue.

    https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

    The reason is these rural counties only have 20 or 30,000 people in them. Some less than 5,000 so having a 100 or more cases is a health catastrophe for them. It really highlights the effect that janitors funeral had and is still having on SW Georgia.

    That poor Georgia janitor’s funeral was way back on February 29, which was only a week after Wall Street finally noticed the coronavirus. My last social engagement was playing golf on March 5, after which I canceled going to see Norm MacDonald on March 7 and meeting with a reader on March 8. But the janitor’s funeral was well before even worry-warts like me were fully locked down.

    • Replies: @ATate
    Wait....you MEET readers?

    Get the eff out of here?

    Really?

    That's kind of cool. I imagine that might be a good fundraising tool as well, with proper vetting. I mean if sports icons or politicians charge money to give the same canned speeches at some Corpo event, I could definitely see you charging a fee to readers and touring golf architecture sites or touring around the Bush's Compton neighborhood.

    I assume this is a way for you to raise money? I'm absolutely for it 100%.

    , @The Alarmist
    On March 7th I threw a party at which I served Corona® Beer to a laughing group of friends, all of whom hugged and kissed as friends do. Several of us were recovering from the worst colds we recall ever having. None of us have died ... so far.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9-v12HyWEA
    , @Ron Mexico
    Never cancel going to see Norm.
  34. That seems to have flummoxed many people.

    One might even say ‘panicked’.

    Also, I’d like to note that we will never run out of Tom Hankses.

  35. @Triumph104
    "Disaster Gentrification"

    Justin Timberlake and Jessica Biel have decided to ride out the virus in Montana.

    "These moves have been a huge concern for us," Alan Morgan, chief executive officer of the National Rural Health Association (NRHA), told NBC News. "It's such a bad idea for upper income urban people to hunker down in these areas and potentially place added pressure on a health care system that was designed for primary care and general surgery, not for pandemic surge response."
     
    https://www.nbcnews.com/pop-culture/pop-culture-news/some-celebrities-are-quarantining-rural-areas-where-medical-infrastructure-severely-n1181076

    Ever since before the Decamerone, rich people have bought bug-out properties in rural areas. Alan Morgan in this respect is like the Islam-loving authoritarian PM of New Zealand complaining about all the bunkers in beautiful prime locations.

    (It would be smarter to point out the health facilities may not currently be at the level expected or even demanded by Justin and Jessica, but donations are gratefully accepted.)

  36. @Tor597
    Hahaha. Modi is letting us have access to Hydroxychloroquine in return for more Indian visas.

    We don't even know if Hydroxychloroquine works. Why should Trump have to negotiate with Modi when he could just threaten him to make him fold.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/india-makes-quid-pro-quo-demand-linked-export-trumps-miracle-coronavirus-drug

    Threaten with what exactly, more of his meaningless words? Expelling H1B pajeets maybe, as if this new corporate MAGA will not eat him alive instantly?

    Trump has nothing on Modi, nothing on Putin, nothing on Xi.
    Trump is the quintessential bitch.

    • Replies: @Tor597
    Trump has the US military. What does India have?
  37. A well deserved slap on the knuckles from Steve to the commentariat. Lol

    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican
    Some regulars are downright rambunctious lately. Seditious, even! Funny stuff. :)
    , @Anonymous

    A well deserved slap on the knuckles from Steve to the commentariat. Lol
     
    What have we done to deserve that?
    , @MikeatMikedotMike
    Get back in your house, citizen.
  38. Unfortunately, every child who goes to school is a potential superspreader, and a lot of even us unpopular people have a child or two.

    • Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    "Unfortunately, every child who goes to school is a potential superspreader"

    Let's euthanize everyone under 30 because they are immune to kung flu. Then we can rest easy.

    Signed,
    Captain Sailer and The Boomers
  39. @Ron Unz
    But is it actually clear whether celebrity-types are all that more likely to be infected than ordinary people?

    We've now had well over 20K deaths. If we assume a 1% death rate (which may be high), that suggests over 2M infections maybe 3 weeks ago. So even with lockdowns and everything, I'd think we have at least 3-4M infections today, or something like 1% of the American population. Perhaps even closer to 2% if the death rate is actually lower.

    If someone made a list of reasonably-famous celebrities, surely there would be many hundreds, even thousands of names. And only a tiny handful have gotten infected (except maybe for the ones living in an ultra-hard-hit area like NYC). Probably more than 1%, maybe even more than 2%, but probably nothing close to 5%.

    I believe the South Korean data are the biggest and fullest sample, and they show that with good hospital care the mortality rate for those infected is 2%. Even if that’s a slight overestimate, I’d think that most countries won’t be able to provide South Korean level healthcare – perhaps not even the US, what with the chaos in certain areas and the overall disorganized nature of the American response so far.

    However, obviously death rates are lower 3 weeks into the infection, so your 1% death rate might be the very best estimate – in other words, in the exponential phase, it might be as good as any to guess the number of infected 3 weeks ago.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz

    I believe the South Korean data are the biggest and fullest sample, and they show that with good hospital care the mortality rate for those infected is 2%.
     
    Sure, I'd also been quite impressed by the South Korean data. But a couple of days ago a seemingly knowledgeable commenter from Iceland argued that a very large fraction of infections may actually be totally asymptomatic, which would drastically lowering the IFR suggested in South Korea, perhaps by a factor of 3 or 4. Here are links to a couple of comments on that thread:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/ioannidis-under-65s-dont-need-to-worry-much-about-dying-in-europe-in-u-s-though/#comment-3827663

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/ioannidis-under-65s-dont-need-to-worry-much-about-dying-in-europe-in-u-s-though/#comment-3828219

    The Iceland data is very intriguing and there was also that town in Germany where widespread testing found 15% of the population to be infected, the overwhelmingly majority asymptomatic.

    Presumably, all these early, somewhat contradictory datapoints will eventually be resolved. But at this stage, I'd guess that the IFR is probably lower than 1%, perhaps closer to 0.5%. But since these estimates seem to change every few days, I'll admit I still use 1% in my crude infection estimations.
  40. @Steve Sailer
    That poor Georgia janitor's funeral was way back on February 29, which was only a week after Wall Street finally noticed the coronavirus. My last social engagement was playing golf on March 5, after which I canceled going to see Norm MacDonald on March 7 and meeting with a reader on March 8. But the janitor's funeral was well before even worry-warts like me were fully locked down.

    Wait….you MEET readers?

    Get the eff out of here?

    Really?

    That’s kind of cool. I imagine that might be a good fundraising tool as well, with proper vetting. I mean if sports icons or politicians charge money to give the same canned speeches at some Corpo event, I could definitely see you charging a fee to readers and touring golf architecture sites or touring around the Bush’s Compton neighborhood.

    I assume this is a way for you to raise money? I’m absolutely for it 100%.

    • Replies: @Hebrew National
    There ought to be an iSteve ocean cruise. A tour of various Caribbean islands, with emphasis on how ethnic origin and colonial history correlate with shitholocity today.
  41. Alternative theory, Tom Hankses (THes) hang around lots of marginal people called servants. Servants are young and healthy (and good looking if you are rich) so as not to be depressing to be around for a TH. Young and healthy means they might get Covid and only have mild or no symptoms. Being dispensable people they don’t get fancy government worker type benefits so they have to show up to their jobs servicing THes even if they have mild symptoms. So while you are imagining the disease being spread from a TH to a BoJo while shaking hands, more likely it is the army of servants that service them while spraying Covid all over.

    Think about what might have been going on at Epstein Island. Very young women/girls who would show only mild symptoms mixing with super rich elderly men. Needless to say those elderly men had the kind of medical care where everything is hush hush. While Epstein Island is presumably shut down it must have been replaced by ‘call girl’ type services. In effect rich elderly men sharing the same super spreader (he he he I made a funny).

  42. You’re talking about super-spreaders. These people have a huge R0, in some cases over 100. If they get herd immunity, it bodes very well for the rest of us.

    What we need therefore is to gather all the super-popular people together in one place and let them infect each other, per Robin Hanson’s variolation Hero Hotel plan. If the Oscars had been held in late Feb as originally planned, we’d be playing Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon to work out who was/wasn’t infected.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    The Oscars were moved up this year to the week after the Super Bowl in early-mid February. If they'd been held in March like they often were previously ...
  43. @Mr McKenna
    Ha indeed. 'You can have this export if you agree to take this other export.'

    As though we don't have enough Indians (and Chinese) already.

    Why don't they stop manufacturing so many?

    Is birth control totally unheard of?

    Why don’t they stop manufacturing so many?

    All the better with which to conquer us.

    America is seen as place to be fleeced; either through a phone scam or direct demographic replacement.

  44. I’m very curious how the guy who brought it to the funeral caught his case. It was early enough that he probably didn’t catch it in the US (at that time there were more cases on the cruise ship than in the US). The NY times article mentioned that he had no travel that would explain his case.

  45. In the whole history of Ebola, there have been fewer than 2000 deaths. Also, Ebola requires contact with bodily fluid for transmission. The Western panic on Ebola was a classic shakedown of government by people who make money from that stuff: R50 universities, biotech, and Bethesda “public servants”.

    Moreover, there are no flights between Kinshasa and North America, per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N%27djili_Airport . Your shitholes are not precisely Rome or Mecca. Keep hating, never change.

  46. Disease as a social construct.

  47. @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    Why? Because if we don't, then where would US companies expect to fill all the STEM jobs? Where would all the workers come from? Not like they could actually, you know, go and hire American born workers. Perish the thought.

    Regarding access to Hydroxychloroquine, it's pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and the success of H1B Visa Program.

    Because if we don’t, then where would US companies expect to fill all the STEM jobs? Where would all the workers come from?

    Bits rotting in the server farms!

    • LOL: botazefa
  48. @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    "AIDS has had the most effect on the worldview of the public health establishment in recent decades, and the lessons many took from it were that the public couldn’t be trusted with the truth about who was spreading it (needle junkies and anonymous sodomy addicts)."

    This was well documented in Michael Fumento's 1992 best selling book "The Myth of Heterosexual AIDS", even down to when Fumento estimated that the virus would peak (around the late late nineties, into the early 2000's, which it did). The book told the truth in bare terms. The medical establishment, including Dr. Anthony Fauci owes Michael Fumento an official public apology.

    AIDS has had the most effect on the worldview of the public health establishment in recent decades, and the lessons many took from it were that the public couldn’t be trusted with the truth about who was spreading it (needle junkies and anonymous sodomy addicts

    Junkies and sodomists are not legally protected classes but in this instance they were for all practical purposes and it was the ultimate faux pas to mention that almost everybody who had the disease was a sodomist or a junkie. Even to say “needle junkies and . . . ” is a bit of a cushioned blow as the truth was/is a SODOMIST or a junkie. It’s like the opposite of lung cancer and smoking where the current practice is they almost always mention the smoking status when they report lung cancer deaths and cigarette smokers are the opposite of a legally protected class in that they are one of the few classes of people we are permitted and even encouraged to publicly denigrate a priori.

    . . . Dr. Anthony Fauci . . .

    If the BePowers wanted me to believe this covid was different from sars, west nile, h1n1, and zika they would not have this jackass anywhere close to the operation. He is an AIDS entrepreneur. Kind of like a vulture except worse. Is there a snake species that does the vulture niche and mostly consumes carrion? That would be Fauci.

    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob

    Junkies and sodomists are not legally protected classes but in this instance they were for all practical purposes....
     
    For a while there, it was the 4 Hs wrt AIDS - homos, Haitians, heroin, and hemophiliacs.

    OT: Thanks to the person who suggested the historical fiction novels by John Biggins about the Austrian sailor Otto Prohaska. I just finished the fourth one and they all were excellent. Beautifully written and highly recommended.

    https://www.amazon.com/s?k=john+biggins&ref=nb_sb_noss_1
  49. @Tor597
    Hahaha. Modi is letting us have access to Hydroxychloroquine in return for more Indian visas.

    We don't even know if Hydroxychloroquine works. Why should Trump have to negotiate with Modi when he could just threaten him to make him fold.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/india-makes-quid-pro-quo-demand-linked-export-trumps-miracle-coronavirus-drug

    Hahaha. Modi is letting us have access to Hydroxychloroquine in return for more Indian visas.

    So, for oil, which Trump assures us we don’t really need, we put our boots on the other guys’ ground. For life-saving medicine, we let the other guys put their boots on our ground.

    • Agree: Tor597
  50. @joeyjoejoe
    "First, I want to thank everybody who has already fired off a comment to the effect that “Tom Hanks is NOT popular with me.” Keep doing what you do. Don’t ever change."

    But they never said that. They said Tom Hanks isn't well liked by me.

    You are usually more intellectually honest than this.

    joe

    Psst, now go ask Wittgenstein whether or not a hot dog is a sandwich.

    (GIGGLES TO THE OTHER KIDS). This is gonna be gooood!!

    • Replies: @Kibernetika
    https://youtu.be/VaiwpNbzfGU
  51. @Steve Sailer
    That poor Georgia janitor's funeral was way back on February 29, which was only a week after Wall Street finally noticed the coronavirus. My last social engagement was playing golf on March 5, after which I canceled going to see Norm MacDonald on March 7 and meeting with a reader on March 8. But the janitor's funeral was well before even worry-warts like me were fully locked down.

    On March 7th I threw a party at which I served Corona® Beer to a laughing group of friends, all of whom hugged and kissed as friends do. Several of us were recovering from the worst colds we recall ever having. None of us have died … so far.

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    I had a pretty savage bout of flu or what appeared to be flu in mid-February. I was helping to organise a conference. I just bulled my way through it and then spent a week in bed recovering.
    I have since wondered if I actually had a brush with Covid-19 without realising it. Some other people were also ill but nobody died. On balance it was most likely to be the ordinary seasonal flu.
  52. @Glaivester
    It sounds less like they are demanding more visas, and rather working to protect those already on visas. Not optimal, but it could be much worse.

    They want to “protect” the H1B’s from HAVING TO GO HOME TO INDIA. You see, India is so totally equal, and so totally NOT a sh!thole that the loyal, proud sons of India have to be protected from having to go home and actually live there.

  53. OT:

    Black social distancing: six shot at party in Bakersfield

    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/six-people-shot-california-house-party-violated-stay-home-order-n1181981?cid=public-rss_20200411

    94 rounds fired… no fatalities?

    • Replies: @Hebrew National
    How do you know they were black? The article doesn't mention anything about color, other than that the getaway car was white.

    All we know is that there were four hundred people at a party held at a building surrounded by chain-link fencing, that a hundred shots resulted in six non-lifethreatening injuries, and that none of the victims are cooperating with the police. And of course, that the getaway car was white.

    Maybe it was a Joad family reunion.

    , @Anon
    Blacks can't social distance because they are constantly on the hunt for status. They're obsessed with it. You can't achieve status without gathering people around you. 'Important' people have to have their entourage and get constant attention from it, or they feel like nobody and become depressed.

    Look up the 'Big Man' concept in Anthropology.
    , @anonymous1963
    No fatalities?


    May have something to do with the way black gangbangers shoot their firearms; that stupid sideways style. Mythbusters did a program that showed it was the least effective way to use a gun. The Weaver stance is the best. But blacks think it makes them look cool.
  54. @Harry Baldwin
    On his podcast, Scott Adams challenged his listeners to name any celebrity under 70 years old who has died from COVID-19. People mention Joe Diffie, 61, but Adams wouldn't count him because he'd never heard of him. I never had either, until his demise.

    People mention Joe Diffie, 61, but Adams wouldn’t count him because he’d never heard of him. I never had either, until his demise.

    Doesn’t really matter now, but Joe Diffie was very well-known in country music. During the height of his popularity in the 1990s, he had 35 singles on the Billboard charts, including five No. 1s and 12 others that made the top 10. He also had two albums certified platinum and two certified gold, which used to be a big deal back when people bought records.

    In addition, he co-wrote a number of other charted songs recorded by other artists. And in 1988, he won a Grammy in collaboration with Marty Stuart. He was inducted into the Grand Ole Opry in 1993.

    All in all, a pretty solid career. It’s tough for country artists to achieve the same level of awareness as a rapper or pop diva, but to much of the country, Diffie would be considered a “celebrity.”

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    I was working in a small town at an ag equipment plant and then in another small town in an electronics plant (they dedicated themselves exclusively to making paging equipment, knowing full well that cell phones would make paging obsolete except for a few niche applications in the foreseeable future; it was a designed pump-and-dump that made a dozen Canadian crooks multimillionaires) at the time Diffie was having big country hits. His tunes were ubiquitous and the local country cover bands all played them every set.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3E37wk2EvE

    But country artists, except for the very top performers, exist in a hazy world of fame and generally are forgotten pretty quickly except by a small hard core fan base.
    , @MBlanc46
    I stand corrected.
  55. anonymous[400] • Disclaimer says:

    People with money, celebs, ski vacationers, businessmen and so on, are the ones who travel around within the country as well as internationally. They’re the ones most likely to unknowingly spread it far and wide. Low income people travel locally so don’t spread it as widely as the well to do. This virus is rather quirky in that it hits some people hard and others are asymptomatic even within the same family household, laying aside the category of elderly and sick people who are more susceptible. George Stephanopoulos has it but has no symptoms while his wife reports feeling very sick.

  56. Sure, adoring fans have played an outsized early role in turning their idols into transmission lines of disease, but once the epidemic develops into a pandemic of broad community spread their role in this so-called Superstar Adoration Disease regresses to the mean.

  57. Anon[322] • Disclaimer says:

    But instead we got a virus that in February and March seemed to be transmitted most in the West by people at the core of core social networks, the kind of people who get invited frequently to leadership conferences, ski vacations, sales presentations, movie premieres, choir practices, soccer games, funerals, Prime Minister’s Question Time, and the like.

    Bingo. The jet setters are the ones who’ve been spreading this around. I used to admire world travelers, watched endless hours of travel related vlogs on YouTube from world travelers. Now I think they are the cause of pandemics and can’t stand to watch them. I went from admiring them to despising them. Nor do I have any more appetite for world traveling. From now on I’m keeping my vacation dollars at home, and only travel to places I can drive to.

  58. John Prine died from Covid19 a couple of days ago. He will be missed.

    • Replies: @Kratoklastes
    He might well be, but the second part of the search criterion was "age < 70".
  59. First, I want to thank everybody who has already fired off a comment to the effect that “Tom Hanks is NOT popular with me.” Keep doing what you do. Don’t ever change.

    Exactly!

    We all need an occasional reminder to pause and reflect lest we become un-self-aware.

  60. @Tor597
    Hahaha. Modi is letting us have access to Hydroxychloroquine in return for more Indian visas.

    We don't even know if Hydroxychloroquine works. Why should Trump have to negotiate with Modi when he could just threaten him to make him fold.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/india-makes-quid-pro-quo-demand-linked-export-trumps-miracle-coronavirus-drug

    Somebody has to buy all that dead people’s real estate. BTW, Stanley Chera, NYC realtor and friend of Trump has died.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/business/stanley-chera-coronavirus-trump/index.html

  61. Heres a rare case of a name and face actually being tied to a Wuflu death, since it’s a longtime NY Post sports photog. Only 48, so that’s distressing. The story details what a great guy he was but no medical details e.g. any underlying conditions? Or what social/professional contacts he might have had aside from his family, with no sports to photograph.

    https://nypost.com/2020/04/12/anthony-causi-beloved-post-sports-photographer-dies-of-coronavirus-at-48/

    • Replies: @jon

    any underlying conditions?
     
    Well ...
    https://thenypost.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/anthony-causi-10.jpg
    https://cdnph.upi.com/sv/ph/og/upi/1391586785684/2020/1/c987ae74ae17a76b592e59a703c6bac3/v1.5/Sports-photographer-Anthony-Causi-dies-at-48-after-contracting-coronavirus.jpg
    https://fashionmodelsecret.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/ccelebritiesKH-COMPOSITE-ANTHONY-CAUSI.jpg
  62. @Tor597
    Hahaha. Modi is letting us have access to Hydroxychloroquine in return for more Indian visas.

    We don't even know if Hydroxychloroquine works. Why should Trump have to negotiate with Modi when he could just threaten him to make him fold.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/india-makes-quid-pro-quo-demand-linked-export-trumps-miracle-coronavirus-drug

    we knew ventilators would not work , yet Trump ordered US firms to manufacture thousands of ventilators….despite any evidence that ventilators would save lives

    Trump should invoked the Defense Production Act to force US pharmaceutical firms to produce more hydroxychoroquine. In New York and New Jersey hydroxychloroquine is not available at any Pharmacies, and azithromycin, is in very limited supply and almost unavailable today.

    Americans will feel safer going back to work if they know they will have access to treatments if they get sick. Today we even have a shortage of Tonic water and zinc. Until we have a supply of these prophylactics many Americans will be afraid to work or go to restaurants of take public transportation.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    we knew ventilators would not work , yet Trump ordered US firms to manufacture thousands of ventilators….despite any evidence that ventilators would save lives
     
    Ventilators don’t work? Please explain.
    , @moshe
    I have no medical knowledge whatsoever.

    Nevertheless, my naive observations and conversations have me leaning toward doing everything possible NOT to intubate patients and to try this guy's drug cocktail https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/technology/doctor-zelenko-coronavirus-drugs.amp.html

    I am hesitant to advocate medicine popular among the ultra-orthodox because most of the benefits seem to be solely for psychosomatic reasons and I am not certain that those benefits outweigh the negatives.

    In this case however, I'm coming around to thinking that trying his cocktail is generally a good idea as soon as someone knows they have Covid. I'm still on the fence about it but leaning toward it being a good idea. Especially before jumping to intubate.
    , @dfordoom

    we knew ventilators would not work , yet Trump ordered US firms to manufacture thousands of ventilators….despite any evidence that ventilators would save lives

    Trump should invoked the Defense Production Act to force US pharmaceutical firms to produce more hydroxychoroquine.
     
    Given that it's still an unproven largely untested treatment with side effects that may be more lethal than the disease why should he do something like that? Why not wait until it's been properly tested? It might not turn out to be such a miracle cure after all.
  63. @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    "But what if it turned out that race was a minor factor, but popularity was crucially important? "

    For the rate of spreading the virus, perhaps. But then, if all racial groups are equal in how their immune systems adapt to the virus, if the nurture view holds true, then all racial groups would tend to die of the virus at the same exact rate.

    But that's not what is (at present) occurring. Some racial groups have a better chance of surviving COVID-19, while other racial groups are more susceptible to dying from it.

    But then, if all racial groups are equal [in how their immune systems adapt to the virus]

    If there’s one thing that’s clear, it’s that all racial groups are not equal in just about anything but much of our society it built around pretending that the elephant in the room isn’t there. “What elephant, I don’t see any elephant. What are you talking about? You must be some kind of racist who sees imaginary elephants everywhere. (Elephant crashes into bookcase and crushes coffee table).” When you do this for medical decisions it’s particularly bad, verging on the unethical but in any society the Holy Tenets of that society that must be upheld at all costs by the power structure are often more important than whether particular individuals live or die.

  64. First, I want to thank everybody who has already fired off a comment to the effect that “Tom Hanks is NOT popular with me.” Keep doing what you do. Don’t ever change.

    Tom Hanks disease = Damn shit-ass. Okee-[dokee]?

  65. @Wielgus
    I think celebs are more likely to be tested. And can afford the test whose cost can be over 3,000 dollars.

    Where are you getting $3,000 from? Covid tests (to the extent that they are available at all) are generally being given at no cost to the patient. The cost to the insurer or government is far less than $3,000. Long term there is no reason to think that the cost of a test should be more than $5 or even less but even at present it’s nowhere close to $3,000. Maybe there are some hospitals that put that number on their bills the same way that they try to charge $30 you for a 3 cent aspirin but in reality they rarely get anyone to pay list price for the $30 aspirin.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    They're going to have to make up the revenue loss from all those elective procedures somehow.
    , @Wielgus
    The cost was mentioned elsewhere on the Unz website, though I forget exactly where. That was a reference to US procedures, the USA not having socialised medicine, unlike many European countries. I have little doubt the test is free or much less expensive in Europe and other places.
    , @ic1000
    > Where are you getting $3,000 from?

    For testing in the U.S.: the trade publication GenomeWeb (subscription req'd) ran "CMS Sets Payment Rate for SARS-CoV-2 Testing" on March 13th:


    CMS said that labs performing [the CDC test]... will be reimbursed at $35.92 per test... Meanwhile, labs using non-CDC tests... will be reimbursed at ~$51.33 per test.
     
    The only followup I noticed was on an article on Luminex' SARS-CoV-2 test for its Aries system: "Luminex added it will price the test below current Medicare reimbursement levels to 'prevent additional financial burden on customers and the healthcare system during the COVID-19 pandemic.'"

    For background, it is a long-standing gripe in the molecular diagnostics industry, that CMS (Medicare) sets its rates so low that clinical labs and test-makers "lose money on every sale and have to make it up by volume." In the quirky U.S. system, "volume" means private insurers (and cash customers), who pay 33% to 100% more than Medicare (my guess).

    I don't know what patients and their insurers are actually being charged after getting tested. It likely varies, depending on the specific scenario (in-hospital vs. outpatient, prescribed by MD vs. concerned citizen). And Abbott's ID Now Point of Care test probably has its own pricing schedule.

    Anybody have insight on this questions?

  66. @Pericles
    Oh she might be laughing. "So you've had your 100 toxxic vaxx injections, how's that working out for ya?"

    It will work out great if we get a Coronavirus vaccine in another year or so (as seems likely or at least there is a strong possibility) but she and her family are still going to remain vulnerable. The only real issue will be that if there are enough idiots like her then herd immunity won’t be achievable and there will still be periodic outbreaks that start at Disneyland and the like.

    I might get Covid but at least I’m not getting polio or diphtheria or tetanus.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    What about chicken pox? Hep-B? Basically, if we didn't immunize for it before PC took over medicine and public health, should we immunize for it now?
  67. But most models assume that human beings are fungible. This is partly due to concerns about admitting the existence of racial differences, which would be the Worst Thing Ever, and partly due to the need to simplify.

    Hooray! Steve has returned to the noticing battlefield. Oversimplification. Lazy modeling. These have led us down the path of the lockdowns. It will be hard to fire at Ron Unz who insisted on locking us all down being the right strategy.

    I’d hate to lose Steve (over 60, and sicker than the norm) or Ron. Can we let the kids out now, though?

    • Agree: Polynikes
  68. @Jack D
    Where are you getting $3,000 from? Covid tests (to the extent that they are available at all) are generally being given at no cost to the patient. The cost to the insurer or government is far less than $3,000. Long term there is no reason to think that the cost of a test should be more than $5 or even less but even at present it's nowhere close to $3,000. Maybe there are some hospitals that put that number on their bills the same way that they try to charge $30 you for a 3 cent aspirin but in reality they rarely get anyone to pay list price for the $30 aspirin.

    They’re going to have to make up the revenue loss from all those elective procedures somehow.

  69. @Jack D
    It will work out great if we get a Coronavirus vaccine in another year or so (as seems likely or at least there is a strong possibility) but she and her family are still going to remain vulnerable. The only real issue will be that if there are enough idiots like her then herd immunity won't be achievable and there will still be periodic outbreaks that start at Disneyland and the like.

    I might get Covid but at least I'm not getting polio or diphtheria or tetanus.

    What about chicken pox? Hep-B? Basically, if we didn’t immunize for it before PC took over medicine and public health, should we immunize for it now?

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    Chickenpox is interesting. I never caught it as a child. I went to a theatre performance in my early 20s, felt strange and found I had come down with chickenpox, I was off work for a week. Chickenpox is a little more virulent if you catch it in adulthood. I have since wondered if others who attended the theatre were infected by me, or if I got it from them. Perhaps they had "herd immunity" already.
    , @jsm
    Thank you, Tom. Why are infants, less than an hour out of the wombs of hep-b negative mothers, given a hep b shot? I don't know too many newborns out hooking, and unless that tot has a bleeding disorder, the chances of being exposed are virtually zero.
    Yet, it's "done."
    The justification? Get 'm while it's convenient, lest they not show up again before they do start hooking at 14. No, I am not kidding.

    I am NOT an anti-vaxxer. If I ever get bit by a bat, I will be the first one in line for the rabies vaccine, cuz rabies will KILL you, like, every time.

    But chicken pox? Is a mild childhood disease. (100 deaths per 3.5 million cases.) Shingles, otoh, is nasty and painful, affects old farts. And shingles is best prevented by exposing the oldsters to their grandkids while the kiddoes are enduring their own case of mild chickenpox, thus giving a booster to Grampa's immunity to his own varicella. Now, THERE's your herd immunity...being PREVENTED by chicken pox vax.

    The thing about the hysterical Pro-Vaxxer contingent, they never met a vaccine they DIDN'T like, nor are YOU allowed to not-like. Exactly as any religious fanatic.

  70. Any word if this disease has stricken Denzel Washington Jr, the Black Tom Hanks?

  71. Anonymous[225] • Disclaimer says:

    The second phenomenon is slightly different: not only should it be necessary to remove fewer vertices to stop the epidemic (above), but the epidemic should remove (i.e., infect) its most “precious” nodes earliest, because they are the most connected ones.

    What is a “vertice”?

    • Replies: @epebble
    Vertices is plural of vertex. Vertex is a dot in a chain of dots connected by lines.
    , @Pericles
    Singular: vertex. It's a node in a graph, which describes how nodes are connected by edges.

    In this case, it looks like the nodes are people, and an edge between two nodes means two people meet (and can potentially spread Corona-chan to each other, if one of them is infected).

    Since I see vertex being defined for several different domains when I search, here is the definition of interest:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vertex_%28graph_theory%29
    , @Hebrew National
    The plural of "ex" is "ices". For example, "Donald Trump is on good terms with most of his ices."
  72. Anonymous[225] • Disclaimer says:
    @jb
    A friend of mine in low incidence California is just emerging from a four week bout. She is an unemployed single mother, nobody's elite, but she's working on it, and as best we can figure out she got the bug at a vaguely new agey conference at the beginning of March, which had about 50 attendees, all sitting next to one another in cramped auditoriums listening to various speakers. I.e., sort of a downmarket version of the Tom Hanks experience. (The conference organizers say that other attendees haven't reported this, but my friend knows one other person who was there and who has it now, so who knows what to believe).

    She is an unemployed single mother, nobody’s elite, but she’s working on it…

    What is she working on?

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    Becoming an elite, no doubt. That's why people go to California, isn't it?
  73. steve-
    very good point. Murray in “Coming Apart” observed that the upper class does nothing for the under class. The under class is after all just a basket of deplorables.

    Nonsense–the upperclass has now given the under class a gift that keeps on giving.

    • Replies: @Ben tillman
    There isn’t any “upper class”.
  74. @Abe

    AIDS has had the most effect on the worldview of the public health establishment in recent decades, and the lessons many took from it were that the public couldn’t be trusted with the truth about who was spreading it (needle junkies and anonymous sodomy addicts).
     
    Tom Hanks starred in PHILADELPHIA in the early 90’s in what might appear to the casual rube observer as a cynically shrewd pay-to-play bargain with Hollywood’s gay mafia (star in this AIDS propaganda piece and you’ll get an Oscar plus we’ll make you 5x the star as the much better-looking, infinitely more talented Daniel Day Lewis). But far from venally knuckling-under to the 1% power elite of anonymous sodomy addicts, St. Tom was actually playing a bit of 4D chess. See, it was his idea to throw in that shirt-baring scene where his lawyer character reveals a bunch of Kaposi’s sarcoma lesions all over his chest- blessedly kissable stigmata of the AIDS Holocaust if you’re some Hollywood weirdo fruit, but disgusting markers of a putrescent lifestyle to just about everybody else. And so did St. Tom singlehandedly delay the acceptance of gay marriage for over 25 years!

    Seriously, I have nothing personal against Hanks, because I realize I have absolutely nothing personal on him at all! He is simply a figment of our media-addled collective consciousness with the only certainty being that his aw-shucks, nice-guy Mr. Norman Rockwell Americana persona has proven itself useful over the years to those with real money and power, which is why he’s been asked to reprise it again and again. What man lies beneath that veneer I will never, nor do I care ever, to know.

    Tom singlehandedly delay the acceptance of gay marriage for over 25 years!

    An amusing theory, to be sure…but one I can’t address, because I am a 49-year-old straight man, and thus have never seen this film. I’m pretty sure only Boomers, and people with a vested interest in gay cinema (“homos”) have ever seen it. Maybe a few girls too?

    • Replies: @Romanian
    I caught it randomly on TV in several E.European countries, including mine, over the years. Our networks are suckers for Oscar movies, though.
    , @RodW

    An amusing theory, to be sure…but one I can’t address, because I am a 49-year-old straight man, and thus have never seen this film. I’m pretty sure only Boomers, and people with a vested interest in gay cinema (“homos”) have ever seen it. Maybe a few girls too?
     
    I’m a 53-year-old straight man and I saw it. I’d already grown sick and tired of what might in retrospect have been called ‘neocon’ Hollywood films stressing the heroism of attacking other countries. I decided to watch some gentle, human interest films instead. What I got was faggots and abortions and alcoholism and saintly immigrants. That’s when I gave up watching films completely. I still remember feeling sympathy with those ghastly white men making jokes about queers.
    , @keypusher
    I’m pretty sure only Boomers, and people with a vested interest in gay cinema (“homos”) have ever seen it. Maybe a few girls too?

    It came out in 1993, when the youngest boomers were hitting 29 or 31, depending on how you count. It was the 12th-highest grossing movie in the U.S. that year ($77.4 million). Movie audiences skew young, as you may know. And you think only people over 30, plus "homos" and a few girls saw it?

    I'm pretty sure you're a complete idiot. I love reading troglodytes trying to describe, in the teeth of facts and logic, how humans behave.
  75. @Abe

    AIDS has had the most effect on the worldview of the public health establishment in recent decades, and the lessons many took from it were that the public couldn’t be trusted with the truth about who was spreading it (needle junkies and anonymous sodomy addicts).
     
    Tom Hanks starred in PHILADELPHIA in the early 90’s in what might appear to the casual rube observer as a cynically shrewd pay-to-play bargain with Hollywood’s gay mafia (star in this AIDS propaganda piece and you’ll get an Oscar plus we’ll make you 5x the star as the much better-looking, infinitely more talented Daniel Day Lewis). But far from venally knuckling-under to the 1% power elite of anonymous sodomy addicts, St. Tom was actually playing a bit of 4D chess. See, it was his idea to throw in that shirt-baring scene where his lawyer character reveals a bunch of Kaposi’s sarcoma lesions all over his chest- blessedly kissable stigmata of the AIDS Holocaust if you’re some Hollywood weirdo fruit, but disgusting markers of a putrescent lifestyle to just about everybody else. And so did St. Tom singlehandedly delay the acceptance of gay marriage for over 25 years!

    Seriously, I have nothing personal against Hanks, because I realize I have absolutely nothing personal on him at all! He is simply a figment of our media-addled collective consciousness with the only certainty being that his aw-shucks, nice-guy Mr. Norman Rockwell Americana persona has proven itself useful over the years to those with real money and power, which is why he’s been asked to reprise it again and again. What man lies beneath that veneer I will never, nor do I care ever, to know.

    “What man lies beneath that veneer”

    A relative of Abraham Lincoln?

  76. Anonymous[225] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous
    Steve, you're over thinking this one:

    Basically, it's just the random factor - true for all airborne viral respiratory illnesses, such as the flu, colds etc - combined with the exponential law, combined with the vagaries of social intercourse.
    A lot of noise at the beginning, but it 'evens itself out' at the end due to the interplay of all these factors, the law of averages, and the fact that man is a social creature.

    Think of '7 degrees of Kevin Bacon', or even Einstein's explanation of 'Brownian motion', the 'random walk' theory of gas molecule motion, the kinetic theory of gases.
    Basically, a high degree of randomness, instituted by one amongst the multitude, has its own uniformity caused by sheer weight of numbers, and in the case of our Darwinian cousins, the virus, - the act of massive replication when sufficient human meat is available.

    Basically, it’s just the random factor – true for all airborne viral respiratory illnesses, such as the flu, colds etc – combined with the exponential law, combined with the vagaries of social intercourse.

    The Wuhan virus is not an airborne viral illness.

  77. Anonymous[225] • Disclaimer says:
    @Travis
    we knew ventilators would not work , yet Trump ordered US firms to manufacture thousands of ventilators....despite any evidence that ventilators would save lives

    Trump should invoked the Defense Production Act to force US pharmaceutical firms to produce more hydroxychoroquine. In New York and New Jersey hydroxychloroquine is not available at any Pharmacies, and azithromycin, is in very limited supply and almost unavailable today.

    Americans will feel safer going back to work if they know they will have access to treatments if they get sick. Today we even have a shortage of Tonic water and zinc. Until we have a supply of these prophylactics many Americans will be afraid to work or go to restaurants of take public transportation.

    we knew ventilators would not work , yet Trump ordered US firms to manufacture thousands of ventilators….despite any evidence that ventilators would save lives

    Ventilators don’t work? Please explain.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    There have been a number of articles on this. For reasons that are not yet well understood, Covid patients especially don't tend to do well on ventilators. Up to 80% or more die anyway. There is some question whether they are actually DECREASING people's chance of survival by ventilating them.

    Doctor sees a patient starving for oxygen and not breathing well on his own, so his natural inclination is to ventilate the patient as a last resort. Otherwise the patient will probably die in a few hours. Doctor figures that the ventilator will at least give him a fighting chance. Maybe he'll recover from the virus in a couple of weeks and then can be weaned from the ventilator. Most of the time, doctor figures wrong.
  78. anon[145] • Disclaimer says:

    Recent study finds obesity to be the largest cofactor in dying from COVID-19 at least in NY.

    https://www.zdnet.com/article/nyu-scientists-largest-u-s-study-of-covid-19-finds-obesity-the-single-biggest-factor-in-new-york-critical-cases/

    “The chronic condition with the strongest association with critical illness was obesity, with a substantially higher odds ratio than any cardiovascular or pulmonary disease,” write lead author Christopher M. Petrilli of the NYU Grossman School and colleagues in a paper, “Factors associated with hospitalization and critical illness among 4,103 patients with Covid-19 disease in New York City,” which was posted April 11th on the medRxiv pre-print server. The paper has not been peer-reviewed, which should be kept in mind in considering its conclusions.

    Preprint of source paper:
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20057794v1

  79. George Stephanopoulos has tested +ve, but is completely asymptomatic. His wife, though, says she has never been sicker.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/13/media/george-stephanopoulos-coronavirus/index.html

    BTW, a sailor on TR has died. Probably fitness in the top 0.1% of population.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/13/politics/theodore-roosevelt-sailor-coronavirus/index.html

    • Replies: @Bleuteaux
    Goodness. Haven't met a sailor lately, have you? A marine friend of mine says sailors and air men are fatter than the general population.
  80. @anon
    steve-
    very good point. Murray in "Coming Apart" observed that the upper class does nothing for the under class. The under class is after all just a basket of deplorables.

    Nonsense--the upperclass has now given the under class a gift that keeps on giving.

    There isn’t any “upper class”.

  81. @Dr. X
    OT:

    Black social distancing: six shot at party in Bakersfield

    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/six-people-shot-california-house-party-violated-stay-home-order-n1181981?cid=public-rss_20200411

    94 rounds fired... no fatalities?

    How do you know they were black? The article doesn’t mention anything about color, other than that the getaway car was white.

    All we know is that there were four hundred people at a party held at a building surrounded by chain-link fencing, that a hundred shots resulted in six non-lifethreatening injuries, and that none of the victims are cooperating with the police. And of course, that the getaway car was white.

    Maybe it was a Joad family reunion.

    • Agree: Jack Armstrong
    • Replies: @Dr. X

    How do you know they were black?
     
    Because that was the description of the suspects given by the Kern County Sheriff's Department, which was subsequently deleted by the Jewish-controlled media, you hasbara troll.

    If a headline says "Six Innocent Palestianians Shot on Israeli Border" we know who did it even if the article doesn't name the IDF directly... don't we?

  82. @Anonymous

    The second phenomenon is slightly different: not only should it be necessary to remove fewer vertices to stop the epidemic (above), but the epidemic should remove (i.e., infect) its most “precious” nodes earliest, because they are the most connected ones.
     
    What is a “vertice”?

    Vertices is plural of vertex. Vertex is a dot in a chain of dots connected by lines.

  83. @The Alarmist
    On March 7th I threw a party at which I served Corona® Beer to a laughing group of friends, all of whom hugged and kissed as friends do. Several of us were recovering from the worst colds we recall ever having. None of us have died ... so far.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9-v12HyWEA

    I had a pretty savage bout of flu or what appeared to be flu in mid-February. I was helping to organise a conference. I just bulled my way through it and then spent a week in bed recovering.
    I have since wondered if I actually had a brush with Covid-19 without realising it. Some other people were also ill but nobody died. On balance it was most likely to be the ordinary seasonal flu.

  84. @Jack D
    Where are you getting $3,000 from? Covid tests (to the extent that they are available at all) are generally being given at no cost to the patient. The cost to the insurer or government is far less than $3,000. Long term there is no reason to think that the cost of a test should be more than $5 or even less but even at present it's nowhere close to $3,000. Maybe there are some hospitals that put that number on their bills the same way that they try to charge $30 you for a 3 cent aspirin but in reality they rarely get anyone to pay list price for the $30 aspirin.

    The cost was mentioned elsewhere on the Unz website, though I forget exactly where. That was a reference to US procedures, the USA not having socialised medicine, unlike many European countries. I have little doubt the test is free or much less expensive in Europe and other places.

  85. @TomSchmidt
    What about chicken pox? Hep-B? Basically, if we didn't immunize for it before PC took over medicine and public health, should we immunize for it now?

    Chickenpox is interesting. I never caught it as a child. I went to a theatre performance in my early 20s, felt strange and found I had come down with chickenpox, I was off work for a week. Chickenpox is a little more virulent if you catch it in adulthood. I have since wondered if others who attended the theatre were infected by me, or if I got it from them. Perhaps they had “herd immunity” already.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    Yes, it's something that if you didn't catch it in childhood you should definitely get vaccinated for. By contrast, it's probably best for children to get it while children. As I recall the arguments for vaccinating for chicken pox, they basically boiled down to economic ones: the mothers who needed to care for children would lose many more dollars in income than the cost of vaccination.

    I understand that measles isn't that bad a disease to catch as a child if you are well fed and in sanitary conditions, and that actually getting measles provides lifelong immunity where the vaccine can wear off. Measles in 19th-century slums in Europe could be a death sentence, by contrast.

    Polio, smallpox, and a host of other diseases seem wise to vaccinate against: basically, if I got the shot as a child.

    Hep-B is rampant amongst Hispanic immigrants. It's a severe disease, so vaccinating against it makes a lot of sense if you're in that group. If not?
    , @Neil Templeton
    I "immunized" my daughters when my virus re-activated as shingles. I swiped my blisters with finger and rubbed it on their skin, so they could catch the pox as youngsters.
  86. Anonymous[152] • Disclaimer says:

    NYC numbers are off the cliff…

    https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

    Just totally crashing.

    It’s influenza season hitting the wall and that pool of patients able to be reclassified as covid.

    Also the hydroxy is kicking in.

    Look at the national numbers at worldometers and there’s no issue w/o NY & NJ. And now NY is off the cliff (NYC is essentially the ballgame)

    …therefore…

    OPEN UP THE DAMN COUNTRY TRUMP. END THIS BOGUS CORONA SCARE.

    All of America is being held hostage by a handful of shitty democrat urban areas.

    • Agree: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Replies: @epebble
    He can't open up because he didn't close down. States and localities did that. Feds can only give guidance; it is for the States, localities and people to take it. In this instance, an edict to open up is likely to be ignored by those States and localities where they feel they are in danger- which is most places where many people live. So, outside of Wyoming, Montana, Dakotas, Nebraska etc., its impact will be minimal.
  87. @Anonymous

    The second phenomenon is slightly different: not only should it be necessary to remove fewer vertices to stop the epidemic (above), but the epidemic should remove (i.e., infect) its most “precious” nodes earliest, because they are the most connected ones.
     
    What is a “vertice”?

    Singular: vertex. It’s a node in a graph, which describes how nodes are connected by edges.

    In this case, it looks like the nodes are people, and an edge between two nodes means two people meet (and can potentially spread Corona-chan to each other, if one of them is infected).

    Since I see vertex being defined for several different domains when I search, here is the definition of interest:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vertex_%28graph_theory%29

  88. I don’t know whether this post is accurate/predictive or not but I like it. Thanks for that extra push to look at this thing in this novel direction.

  89. @Futurethirdworlder
    John Prine died from Covid19 a couple of days ago. He will be missed.

    He might well be, but the second part of the search criterion was “age < 70".

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar


    John Prine died from Covid19 a couple of days ago. He will be missed.
     
    He might well be, but the second part of the search criterion was “age < 70".
     
    That's only 35 in tortoise years. He looked the part even more than Robert J Ringer or Maggie Gyllenhaal.



    https://c8.alamy.com/comp/BRAB10/galapagos-giant-tortoise-geochelone-elephantopus-head-portrait-santa-BRAB10.jpg

    https://www.songhall.org/images/made/images/uploads/exhibits/john_prine5_Danny_Clinch_328_328_85_s_c1.jpg
  90. @Known Fact
    Heres a rare case of a name and face actually being tied to a Wuflu death, since it's a longtime NY Post sports photog. Only 48, so that's distressing. The story details what a great guy he was but no medical details e.g. any underlying conditions? Or what social/professional contacts he might have had aside from his family, with no sports to photograph.

    https://nypost.com/2020/04/12/anthony-causi-beloved-post-sports-photographer-dies-of-coronavirus-at-48/

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Jon
    Really.
    I know he is obese by the BMI standards defined by organizations like WHO, CDC, etc. but he is not that unusual looking. I see 49 year olds with that body type all of the time. They arent dropping dead from the flu each flu season.

    https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/adult/defining.html
    , @anonymous jew
    I just read obesity (aka "metabolic syndrome") is the number one factor associated with hospitalizations. I believe this is why the US will have a higher death rate than many other countries. Putting aside our usual iSteve discussions and disagreements for the moment, I think we can all agree that we're all fat. Our White people are fat, our Black people are fat and even our Asians are getting fat. I live in Seattle, and even many of the other White yuppie dads at our school and daycare are fat. It's not just the White People of Walmart. *

    A second thing to note about reports of young people dying is that they're like shark bite stories - rare exceptions that make headlines because of their sensational nature. How many millions of young people have been exposed to Coronavirus (recall Iceland found half of all infected are completely asymptomatic) and how many truly healthy young people have died. That is young people without metabolic syndrome, immune disorders etc. I would bet the odds of a healthy young person dying of Coronavirus aren't too different from the odds of a young person dying in a car accident on a long road trip. It's a risk, but an acceptable risk that we have no problem taking in other areas of life.

    *As I've noted on here before, many in my family are fat and I was a chubby kid, but I've found that intermittent fasting combined with avoiding high glycemic foods (bread, pasta, rice, potatoes, dessert) does the trick. I gained a lot of weight after our second was born, but after adopting the aforementioned dietary restrictions I've been under 20% body fat for a couple years now.

  91. @Anonymous
    NYC numbers are off the cliff...

    https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

    Just totally crashing.

    It's influenza season hitting the wall and that pool of patients able to be reclassified as covid.

    Also the hydroxy is kicking in.

    Look at the national numbers at worldometers and there's no issue w/o NY & NJ. And now NY is off the cliff (NYC is essentially the ballgame)

    ...therefore...

    OPEN UP THE DAMN COUNTRY TRUMP. END THIS BOGUS CORONA SCARE.

    All of America is being held hostage by a handful of shitty democrat urban areas.

    He can’t open up because he didn’t close down. States and localities did that. Feds can only give guidance; it is for the States, localities and people to take it. In this instance, an edict to open up is likely to be ignored by those States and localities where they feel they are in danger- which is most places where many people live. So, outside of Wyoming, Montana, Dakotas, Nebraska etc., its impact will be minimal.

    • Agree: Polynikes
  92. @JohnnyWalker123
    https://twitter.com/MattWalshBlog/status/1249412488363376640

    I checked out his twitter feed and it’s slightly interesting. It also pointed out to me something that Steve and many commentators here deserve credit for which is cutting down in traditional “enemy tribe” terms like “the left”, “the democrats”, etc.

    What we’re dealing with here is a world placed under marshall law for iffy reasons that are absolutely magnified by political recourse to fear.

    Remember how pissed off people were that a presidential candidate once tried to ban the Super Big Gulp?

    Well now – for your own good – walking outside is prohibited.

    To return to the old tribeswould be a mistake.

    The new tribes [and none need be evil if they can be simply self interested or inaccurate or more trusting if authority, etc] don’t have generally accepted names yet (which is probably a good thing) but, at their extremes they are those who want to have the freedom of assembly and those who want to ban slutshame hand shakers.

    Hopefully we can work this out in a spirit of amity (and thus far we have, though largely by surrendering to the Fearful) but turning this into a business-as-usual foodfight about Republicans vs Democrats would be disappointing.

  93. Anon[277] • Disclaimer says:
    @Dr. X
    OT:

    Black social distancing: six shot at party in Bakersfield

    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/six-people-shot-california-house-party-violated-stay-home-order-n1181981?cid=public-rss_20200411

    94 rounds fired... no fatalities?

    Blacks can’t social distance because they are constantly on the hunt for status. They’re obsessed with it. You can’t achieve status without gathering people around you. ‘Important’ people have to have their entourage and get constant attention from it, or they feel like nobody and become depressed.

    Look up the ‘Big Man’ concept in Anthropology.

  94. @Anonymous

    we knew ventilators would not work , yet Trump ordered US firms to manufacture thousands of ventilators….despite any evidence that ventilators would save lives
     
    Ventilators don’t work? Please explain.

    There have been a number of articles on this. For reasons that are not yet well understood, Covid patients especially don’t tend to do well on ventilators. Up to 80% or more die anyway. There is some question whether they are actually DECREASING people’s chance of survival by ventilating them.

    Doctor sees a patient starving for oxygen and not breathing well on his own, so his natural inclination is to ventilate the patient as a last resort. Otherwise the patient will probably die in a few hours. Doctor figures that the ventilator will at least give him a fighting chance. Maybe he’ll recover from the virus in a couple of weeks and then can be weaned from the ventilator. Most of the time, doctor figures wrong.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    Maybe he’ll recover from the virus in a couple of weeks and then can be weaned from the ventilator. Most of the time, doctor figures wrong.
     
    Are you saying that these doctors made the wrong decision to put patients on ventilators? What alternative do they have?
  95. @Jack D
    Where are you getting $3,000 from? Covid tests (to the extent that they are available at all) are generally being given at no cost to the patient. The cost to the insurer or government is far less than $3,000. Long term there is no reason to think that the cost of a test should be more than $5 or even less but even at present it's nowhere close to $3,000. Maybe there are some hospitals that put that number on their bills the same way that they try to charge $30 you for a 3 cent aspirin but in reality they rarely get anyone to pay list price for the $30 aspirin.

    > Where are you getting $3,000 from?

    For testing in the U.S.: the trade publication GenomeWeb (subscription req’d) ran “CMS Sets Payment Rate for SARS-CoV-2 Testing” on March 13th:

    CMS said that labs performing [the CDC test]… will be reimbursed at $35.92 per test… Meanwhile, labs using non-CDC tests… will be reimbursed at ~$51.33 per test.

    The only followup I noticed was on an article on Luminex’ SARS-CoV-2 test for its Aries system: “Luminex added it will price the test below current Medicare reimbursement levels to ‘prevent additional financial burden on customers and the healthcare system during the COVID-19 pandemic.’”

    For background, it is a long-standing gripe in the molecular diagnostics industry, that CMS (Medicare) sets its rates so low that clinical labs and test-makers “lose money on every sale and have to make it up by volume.” In the quirky U.S. system, “volume” means private insurers (and cash customers), who pay 33% to 100% more than Medicare (my guess).

    I don’t know what patients and their insurers are actually being charged after getting tested. It likely varies, depending on the specific scenario (in-hospital vs. outpatient, prescribed by MD vs. concerned citizen). And Abbott’s ID Now Point of Care test probably has its own pricing schedule.

    Anybody have insight on this questions?

    • Replies: @vhrm
    Deductibles and co-pays have largely been waived on the testing.

    Some states mandated it (eg California and Washington) but large insurers have also done it on general.

    (https://www.aarp.org/health/health-insurance/info-2020/coronavirus-insurers-treatment-costs.html)

    Idk the details everywhere but the cost to consumer of testing hasn't been a big issue afaik.

  96. @Wielgus
    Chickenpox is interesting. I never caught it as a child. I went to a theatre performance in my early 20s, felt strange and found I had come down with chickenpox, I was off work for a week. Chickenpox is a little more virulent if you catch it in adulthood. I have since wondered if others who attended the theatre were infected by me, or if I got it from them. Perhaps they had "herd immunity" already.

    Yes, it’s something that if you didn’t catch it in childhood you should definitely get vaccinated for. By contrast, it’s probably best for children to get it while children. As I recall the arguments for vaccinating for chicken pox, they basically boiled down to economic ones: the mothers who needed to care for children would lose many more dollars in income than the cost of vaccination.

    I understand that measles isn’t that bad a disease to catch as a child if you are well fed and in sanitary conditions, and that actually getting measles provides lifelong immunity where the vaccine can wear off. Measles in 19th-century slums in Europe could be a death sentence, by contrast.

    Polio, smallpox, and a host of other diseases seem wise to vaccinate against: basically, if I got the shot as a child.

    Hep-B is rampant amongst Hispanic immigrants. It’s a severe disease, so vaccinating against it makes a lot of sense if you’re in that group. If not?

  97. @Andrew M
    You’re talking about super-spreaders. These people have a huge R0, in some cases over 100. If they get herd immunity, it bodes very well for the rest of us.

    What we need therefore is to gather all the super-popular people together in one place and let them infect each other, per Robin Hanson’s variolation Hero Hotel plan. If the Oscars had been held in late Feb as originally planned, we’d be playing Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon to work out who was/wasn’t infected.

    The Oscars were moved up this year to the week after the Super Bowl in early-mid February. If they’d been held in March like they often were previously …

  98. @Wielgus
    Chickenpox is interesting. I never caught it as a child. I went to a theatre performance in my early 20s, felt strange and found I had come down with chickenpox, I was off work for a week. Chickenpox is a little more virulent if you catch it in adulthood. I have since wondered if others who attended the theatre were infected by me, or if I got it from them. Perhaps they had "herd immunity" already.

    I “immunized” my daughters when my virus re-activated as shingles. I swiped my blisters with finger and rubbed it on their skin, so they could catch the pox as youngsters.

  99. Anonymous[186] • Disclaimer says:

    I “immunized” my daughters when my virus re-activated as shingles. I swiped my blisters with finger and rubbed it on their skin, so they could catch the pox as youngsters.

    Congratulations. You’ve set the stage for your daughters to get shingles later in life, and eventually Alzheimer’s. Make sure you tell them, so they get you an extra special present on Father’s Day. Hopefully a lawsuit. Again, nice work, Dr. Dad!

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3013629/

    • Replies: @Jack D
    Hopefully when they turn 18 they'll be smart enough to get their own shingles vaccine.
    , @anon
    You’ve set the stage for your daughters to get shingles later in life, and eventually Alzheimer’s.

    The first sentence of your cite:

    We studied the rare case of an older adult with dementia following herpes zoster encephalitis (HZE).

    Knowledge is good. Reading is good.

  100. This dramatically overcomplicates the story, as least as far as experts go. The media, probably.

    But the fact remains that things are looking a lot like closing everything down was an expensive overreaction. Hey, who said that weeks ago?

  101. @Kratoklastes
    He might well be, but the second part of the search criterion was "age < 70".

    John Prine died from Covid19 a couple of days ago. He will be missed.

    He might well be, but the second part of the search criterion was “age < 70".

    That’s only 35 in tortoise years. He looked the part even more than Robert J Ringer or Maggie Gyllenhaal.

    • Replies: @Jim Bob Lassiter
    Mr. Prine had already been chemoed and carved up by previous bouts of neck cancer.
  102. @Anonymous

    I “immunized” my daughters when my virus re-activated as shingles. I swiped my blisters with finger and rubbed it on their skin, so they could catch the pox as youngsters.
     
    Congratulations. You’ve set the stage for your daughters to get shingles later in life, and eventually Alzheimer’s. Make sure you tell them, so they get you an extra special present on Father's Day. Hopefully a lawsuit. Again, nice work, Dr. Dad!

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3013629/

    Hopefully when they turn 18 they’ll be smart enough to get their own shingles vaccine.

  103. @Anonymous

    I “immunized” my daughters when my virus re-activated as shingles. I swiped my blisters with finger and rubbed it on their skin, so they could catch the pox as youngsters.
     
    Congratulations. You’ve set the stage for your daughters to get shingles later in life, and eventually Alzheimer’s. Make sure you tell them, so they get you an extra special present on Father's Day. Hopefully a lawsuit. Again, nice work, Dr. Dad!

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3013629/

    You’ve set the stage for your daughters to get shingles later in life, and eventually Alzheimer’s.

    The first sentence of your cite:

    We studied the rare case of an older adult with dementia following herpes zoster encephalitis (HZE).

    Knowledge is good. Reading is good.

  104. @ic1000
    > Where are you getting $3,000 from?

    For testing in the U.S.: the trade publication GenomeWeb (subscription req'd) ran "CMS Sets Payment Rate for SARS-CoV-2 Testing" on March 13th:


    CMS said that labs performing [the CDC test]... will be reimbursed at $35.92 per test... Meanwhile, labs using non-CDC tests... will be reimbursed at ~$51.33 per test.
     
    The only followup I noticed was on an article on Luminex' SARS-CoV-2 test for its Aries system: "Luminex added it will price the test below current Medicare reimbursement levels to 'prevent additional financial burden on customers and the healthcare system during the COVID-19 pandemic.'"

    For background, it is a long-standing gripe in the molecular diagnostics industry, that CMS (Medicare) sets its rates so low that clinical labs and test-makers "lose money on every sale and have to make it up by volume." In the quirky U.S. system, "volume" means private insurers (and cash customers), who pay 33% to 100% more than Medicare (my guess).

    I don't know what patients and their insurers are actually being charged after getting tested. It likely varies, depending on the specific scenario (in-hospital vs. outpatient, prescribed by MD vs. concerned citizen). And Abbott's ID Now Point of Care test probably has its own pricing schedule.

    Anybody have insight on this questions?

    Deductibles and co-pays have largely been waived on the testing.

    Some states mandated it (eg California and Washington) but large insurers have also done it on general.

    (https://www.aarp.org/health/health-insurance/info-2020/coronavirus-insurers-treatment-costs.html)

    Idk the details everywhere but the cost to consumer of testing hasn’t been a big issue afaik.

    • Thanks: ic1000
  105. @joeyjoejoe
    "First, I want to thank everybody who has already fired off a comment to the effect that “Tom Hanks is NOT popular with me.” Keep doing what you do. Don’t ever change."

    But they never said that. They said Tom Hanks isn't well liked by me.

    You are usually more intellectually honest than this.

    joe

    Like Steve said: Don’t ever change.

  106. “AIDS has had the most effect on the worldview of the public health establishment in recent decades, and the lessons many took from it were that the public couldn’t be trusted with the truth about who was spreading it (needle junkies and anonymous sodomy addicts).”

    No, the AIDS epidemic was caused by *conservative laws* that made both gays and especially drug addicts into criminals. If junkies could go to a clinic and have medical doctors administer them heroin, I garantee their rates of HIV infection would have been much lower. Likewise, if there were campaigns to educate gay men about the use of condoms, and if gay men were allowed to get married, same thing.

    But of course, conservatives would never support these measures, despite their effectviness, because they dislike these solutions on a *visceral* level. They just consider giving drugs to junkies and condoms to gays as immoral, condoning drug use and homosexuality. As I’ve said before analysing the psychological profile of conservatives:

    `To conservatives, all the problems and tragedies of the World are caused by conservative morality being violated. Everything to conservatives is a moral issue, even when it is clearly not.

    The fact that you even use the word “sodomite” shows your true colors. Who even uses biblical words like this in 2020 besides conservative freaks like you?

    “But most models assume that human beings are fungible. This is partly due to concerns about admitting the existence of racial differences, which would be the Worst Thing Ever, and partly due to the need to simplify.”

    Ah yes, the “racial” differences. Just like at the beggining of this pandemic, morons here were claiming that white people wouldn’t be affected as much as Asians, because Asians are more suscetible to cronaviruses than whites. And then, white Italy and now 65% white U.S.A are the two most affected countries in the World.

    Never mind that “race” didn’t even exist as concept up to the 19th century. Never mind that race is not only difficult to define, but also completely arbitrary. You can pick any random physical trait and then create a “race” out of it. For instance, you can decide that eye color is what determines race, and then all “white” people with brown eyes would be categorized as being of the same race together with black and Asian people. And black people with blue eyes(yes, there are plenty of those) would be lumped together as being of the same race as “white” people with blue eyes. In this case, they just arbitrarilly decided that the determinant of race is skin color. Arbitrary.

    Also, “race” as it is defined is a fuzzy set. There is no “white” or “black” skin, but a continuum of very dark to very pale. Where do you draw the line?

    “Race” is 100% pseudo-science. There is such a thing as species, and there is a very clear definition of it, but “race” does not exist. It is a 19th century fabrication to justify European colonialism.

    • Disagree: anonymous1963
  107. @Abe

    AIDS has had the most effect on the worldview of the public health establishment in recent decades, and the lessons many took from it were that the public couldn’t be trusted with the truth about who was spreading it (needle junkies and anonymous sodomy addicts).
     
    Tom Hanks starred in PHILADELPHIA in the early 90’s in what might appear to the casual rube observer as a cynically shrewd pay-to-play bargain with Hollywood’s gay mafia (star in this AIDS propaganda piece and you’ll get an Oscar plus we’ll make you 5x the star as the much better-looking, infinitely more talented Daniel Day Lewis). But far from venally knuckling-under to the 1% power elite of anonymous sodomy addicts, St. Tom was actually playing a bit of 4D chess. See, it was his idea to throw in that shirt-baring scene where his lawyer character reveals a bunch of Kaposi’s sarcoma lesions all over his chest- blessedly kissable stigmata of the AIDS Holocaust if you’re some Hollywood weirdo fruit, but disgusting markers of a putrescent lifestyle to just about everybody else. And so did St. Tom singlehandedly delay the acceptance of gay marriage for over 25 years!

    Seriously, I have nothing personal against Hanks, because I realize I have absolutely nothing personal on him at all! He is simply a figment of our media-addled collective consciousness with the only certainty being that his aw-shucks, nice-guy Mr. Norman Rockwell Americana persona has proven itself useful over the years to those with real money and power, which is why he’s been asked to reprise it again and again. What man lies beneath that veneer I will never, nor do I care ever, to know.

    What’s more degenerate: being a guy and having a sex with a bunch of guys, or divorce-raping your husband and destroying your family, raising your kids without a father, etc. because you wanted to “find yourself”? Which is more harmful for society?

  108. @Wielgus
    I think celebs are more likely to be tested. And can afford the test whose cost can be over 3,000 dollars.

    My best friend works at a boutique PR firm that specializes in celebrities are they now telling their clients NOT to reveal if they’ve had it unless they’ve been seriously hospitalized. People are getting sick of the way celebrities can shelter in their giant mansions with their millions and them getting mild cases of coronavirus seems to add insult to injury. Idris Elba got a lot of backlash for having access to tests. JLo, Ellen, and others have been attacked for posting pictures of themselves at home in a massive compound. Gaga is just now having rapidly escalating PR nightmare for urging world leaders to donate vaccines (??) to third world countries. In general, commoner-celeb relations seem to be quite tense, coronavirus has disrupted the normal aspirational relationship and people are looking for someone to take their fear/frustration out on. So there are a bunch who also have it but you’ll never find out, except maybe in like 5 years if they have a book to promote or something.

    • Thanks: vhrm
  109. Sodomy schlodomy. Tom Hanks would agree: gay men are simply men in their natural state, unrestricted by women’s prudishness. If straight guys could walk into a building and have sex with a bunch of willing, eager beautiful women without having to pay a dime, they would. Of course this means diseases can spread and monogamy should be encouraged among the gayz, but to talk about it like it’s some horrific unnatural thing is hilarious. Gay men live the life so many straight men crave.

  110. @Hebrew National
    How do you know they were black? The article doesn't mention anything about color, other than that the getaway car was white.

    All we know is that there were four hundred people at a party held at a building surrounded by chain-link fencing, that a hundred shots resulted in six non-lifethreatening injuries, and that none of the victims are cooperating with the police. And of course, that the getaway car was white.

    Maybe it was a Joad family reunion.

    How do you know they were black?

    Because that was the description of the suspects given by the Kern County Sheriff’s Department, which was subsequently deleted by the Jewish-controlled media, you hasbara troll.

    If a headline says “Six Innocent Palestianians Shot on Israeli Border” we know who did it even if the article doesn’t name the IDF directly… don’t we?

    • Replies: @Inquiring Mind
    Dude, there is this "thing" called sarcasm. Let's give HN some "space" to tell a sarcastic joke.

    The "tell" that this was in jest was mention of the Joad Family, fictitious characters in a novel depicting white people of a lower socio-economic stratum who migrated to California during the Depression. The real-life ancestors of the fictional Joads at least know how to shoot straight.

    A guy tells a joke that the average iSteve reader would "get" and he is a "hasbara troll"? I tagged HN with LOL because I had a genuine chuckle about his remarks.

    Geez, with this virus-lockdown thing, everyone on iSteve is at each other's throat.

  111. @Morton's toes

    AIDS has had the most effect on the worldview of the public health establishment in recent decades, and the lessons many took from it were that the public couldn’t be trusted with the truth about who was spreading it (needle junkies and anonymous sodomy addicts
     
    Junkies and sodomists are not legally protected classes but in this instance they were for all practical purposes and it was the ultimate faux pas to mention that almost everybody who had the disease was a sodomist or a junkie. Even to say "needle junkies and . . . " is a bit of a cushioned blow as the truth was/is a SODOMIST or a junkie. It's like the opposite of lung cancer and smoking where the current practice is they almost always mention the smoking status when they report lung cancer deaths and cigarette smokers are the opposite of a legally protected class in that they are one of the few classes of people we are permitted and even encouraged to publicly denigrate a priori.

    . . . Dr. Anthony Fauci . . .
     
    If the BePowers wanted me to believe this covid was different from sars, west nile, h1n1, and zika they would not have this jackass anywhere close to the operation. He is an AIDS entrepreneur. Kind of like a vulture except worse. Is there a snake species that does the vulture niche and mostly consumes carrion? That would be Fauci.

    Junkies and sodomists are not legally protected classes but in this instance they were for all practical purposes….

    For a while there, it was the 4 Hs wrt AIDS – homos, Haitians, heroin, and hemophiliacs.

    OT: Thanks to the person who suggested the historical fiction novels by John Biggins about the Austrian sailor Otto Prohaska. I just finished the fourth one and they all were excellent. Beautifully written and highly recommended.

    https://www.amazon.com/s?k=john+biggins&ref=nb_sb_noss_1

  112. @Mr McKenna
    Ha indeed. 'You can have this export if you agree to take this other export.'

    As though we don't have enough Indians (and Chinese) already.

    Why don't they stop manufacturing so many?

    Is birth control totally unheard of?

    The US-Canada had so few Indians that it was virgin land for Europeans. TODAY– America has so few inhabitants (by Chi-Hindu standards) that it is virgin land to be conquered by Asians. “The scramble for America” was how Steve put it. https://www.takimag.com/article/the-scramble-for-america/

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna
    Good point. And soon by Africans. Weird, though, how Europeans colonizing is the worst thing ever, but when Africans and Asians do it, it's like the best thing ever.

    Thanks for the link to Steve's Taki piece. I know that old-fashioned books are out of style, but it still seems obvious to me that someone should produce an edition of his collected works. Who's a good editor around here with time on his/her hands?
  113. @Travis
    we knew ventilators would not work , yet Trump ordered US firms to manufacture thousands of ventilators....despite any evidence that ventilators would save lives

    Trump should invoked the Defense Production Act to force US pharmaceutical firms to produce more hydroxychoroquine. In New York and New Jersey hydroxychloroquine is not available at any Pharmacies, and azithromycin, is in very limited supply and almost unavailable today.

    Americans will feel safer going back to work if they know they will have access to treatments if they get sick. Today we even have a shortage of Tonic water and zinc. Until we have a supply of these prophylactics many Americans will be afraid to work or go to restaurants of take public transportation.

    I have no medical knowledge whatsoever.

    Nevertheless, my naive observations and conversations have me leaning toward doing everything possible NOT to intubate patients and to try this guy’s drug cocktail https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/technology/doctor-zelenko-coronavirus-drugs.amp.html

    I am hesitant to advocate medicine popular among the ultra-orthodox because most of the benefits seem to be solely for psychosomatic reasons and I am not certain that those benefits outweigh the negatives.

    In this case however, I’m coming around to thinking that trying his cocktail is generally a good idea as soon as someone knows they have Covid. I’m still on the fence about it but leaning toward it being a good idea. Especially before jumping to intubate.

  114. @Reg Cæsar


    John Prine died from Covid19 a couple of days ago. He will be missed.
     
    He might well be, but the second part of the search criterion was “age < 70".
     
    That's only 35 in tortoise years. He looked the part even more than Robert J Ringer or Maggie Gyllenhaal.



    https://c8.alamy.com/comp/BRAB10/galapagos-giant-tortoise-geochelone-elephantopus-head-portrait-santa-BRAB10.jpg

    https://www.songhall.org/images/made/images/uploads/exhibits/john_prine5_Danny_Clinch_328_328_85_s_c1.jpg

    Mr. Prine had already been chemoed and carved up by previous bouts of neck cancer.

  115. @Danindc
    A well deserved slap on the knuckles from Steve to the commentariat. Lol

    Some regulars are downright rambunctious lately. Seditious, even! Funny stuff. 🙂

    • Agree: Danindc
    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Some regulars are downright rambunctious lately. Seditious, even!
     
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sdbXGi2WX0Q
  116. @anon
    Tom Hanks? I really hate that idiot.
    Why do you promote him as this popular all American hero Steve?
    You and Michael Jackson and that weirdo John Travolta need to come out of the closet, Steve.

    Tom Hanks? I really hate that idiot.
    Why do you promote him as this popular all American hero Steve?
    You and Michael Jackson and that weirdo John Travolta need to come out of the closet, Steve.

    I never see Hanks movies. He was in that Philadelphia AIDs movie that Hollyweird loved him for. He won all kinds of awards for that drek. And played gay on a TV series. Closet Case closed.

  117. @Jenner Ickham Errican
    Some regulars are downright rambunctious lately. Seditious, even! Funny stuff. :)

    Some regulars are downright rambunctious lately. Seditious, even!

    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican
    Jeez Reg, now I’ve got the blues..

    https://imageproxy.ifunny.co/crop:x-20,resize:320x,crop:x800,quality:90x75/images/48ee1f517e83282aed9e05e89a580504a250d0b4053bcc941b40eca99e4aba74_1.jpg
  118. @reiner Tor
    I believe the South Korean data are the biggest and fullest sample, and they show that with good hospital care the mortality rate for those infected is 2%. Even if that's a slight overestimate, I'd think that most countries won't be able to provide South Korean level healthcare - perhaps not even the US, what with the chaos in certain areas and the overall disorganized nature of the American response so far.

    However, obviously death rates are lower 3 weeks into the infection, so your 1% death rate might be the very best estimate - in other words, in the exponential phase, it might be as good as any to guess the number of infected 3 weeks ago.

    I believe the South Korean data are the biggest and fullest sample, and they show that with good hospital care the mortality rate for those infected is 2%.

    Sure, I’d also been quite impressed by the South Korean data. But a couple of days ago a seemingly knowledgeable commenter from Iceland argued that a very large fraction of infections may actually be totally asymptomatic, which would drastically lowering the IFR suggested in South Korea, perhaps by a factor of 3 or 4. Here are links to a couple of comments on that thread:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/ioannidis-under-65s-dont-need-to-worry-much-about-dying-in-europe-in-u-s-though/#comment-3827663

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/ioannidis-under-65s-dont-need-to-worry-much-about-dying-in-europe-in-u-s-though/#comment-3828219

    The Iceland data is very intriguing and there was also that town in Germany where widespread testing found 15% of the population to be infected, the overwhelmingly majority asymptomatic.

    Presumably, all these early, somewhat contradictory datapoints will eventually be resolved. But at this stage, I’d guess that the IFR is probably lower than 1%, perhaps closer to 0.5%. But since these estimates seem to change every few days, I’ll admit I still use 1% in my crude infection estimations.

    • LOL: Manfred Arcane
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    The German study is so riddled with errors that it’s basically meaningless.

    The Icelandic data is more promising, though I’m not sure what the good Icelandic commenter meant when talking about 0.2-0.3% mortality. There are 8 deaths and 1711 cases, making it a 0.46% mortality rate. (This reminds me of the early days in South Korea, where the mortality rate was around 0.5%, too.) There are also 770 active cases, including 10 in serious/critical condition. I guess some of these are going to die eventually - including some of the as yet asymptomatic or not serious cases (though I’d expect some of the serious/critical cases to survive). Still, the mortality rate in Iceland looks to be closer to the lower bound of estimates - perhaps even below 1%, if we are lucky.

    The Icelandic commenter’s comments provided a clue: it might be that social distancing worked better for the elderly in Iceland. In other words, we might be dealing with an atypically young sample in Iceland. Now this might have something to do with the peculiarities of Icelandic culture. I’m sure you have seen those memes about Scandinavians queuing with a 2 meter distance from each other, even in the absence of an epidemic. I don’t think this could be easily replicated elsewhere.

    Regarding the South Korea, I think their samples are large enough. If they hadn’t caught most (basically, all or almost all) of the asymptomatic cases, then those would’ve spread the disease unchecked, and they would have experienced unexplained symptomatic cases, pneumonia outbreaks with unknown origin. That nothing of the sort happened can only be explained by assuming that they really did catch even asymptomatic cases in South Korea.

    , @reiner Tor
    One more point showing that the South Korean testing regime was pretty thorough: in Iceland they found the 1,711 cases by testing 35,253 people, meaning that almost 5% of those tested were tested positive. This almost sounds like targeted testing when compared to South Korea, where they tested 527,438 people to find their 10,538 cases - so only 2% of those tested were tested positive.
    , @bartolo1
    Mr, Unz. I had just come upon the Unz Review when I was made aware you were a candidate for Senator in California. I watched a Senate debate waiting for my new found hero to dazzle.

    I really believed the Unz guy was going to stick it to the other guys and gals.............not sure of the make up, maybe 7 on stage. Without being mean spirited, you fizzled...........where is that Unz guy?

    How to make up for lack of charisma?

    The body language and just total lack of conviction was a non starter.

    I so much wanted you to set that stage on fire. And it was head down, and timid speech.

    I wanted UNZ...............and I got Chauncey Gardner.

    Now when it comes to data points and figures.............start with admission that it is not a virus.

    It is man made biological warfare............not a bat, a cat, dog, or pangolin. Or some other off brand meat.

    I know the whole Sandy Hook thing destroyed the man. He fucked up.

    He screams loudly..........but give a listen to Alex Jones. You won't because ..the story line on Alex Jones is so carved in stone.

    Myself hated the man. No longer.

    Seems like the type of man who would have shredded Kamala Harris onstage, and screamed at the audience who adored her.

    I tuned into to the Senate Debate for the Unz Review guy...........and I got the nebbish friend from 10th grade.

    Alex Jones column here...........nothing in it for me.

    The Alex Jones opinion................sort of unfortunate he predicted a world war in 2 months with China
  119. Anonymous[284] • Disclaimer says:
    @jon

    any underlying conditions?
     
    Well ...
    https://thenypost.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/anthony-causi-10.jpg
    https://cdnph.upi.com/sv/ph/og/upi/1391586785684/2020/1/c987ae74ae17a76b592e59a703c6bac3/v1.5/Sports-photographer-Anthony-Causi-dies-at-48-after-contracting-coronavirus.jpg
    https://fashionmodelsecret.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/ccelebritiesKH-COMPOSITE-ANTHONY-CAUSI.jpg

    Jon
    Really.
    I know he is obese by the BMI standards defined by organizations like WHO, CDC, etc. but he is not that unusual looking. I see 49 year olds with that body type all of the time. They arent dropping dead from the flu each flu season.

    https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/adult/defining.html

    • Replies: @S. Anonyia
    He probably has high blood pressure though.

    Apparently that is the number one comorbidity for this disease. You don’t need to be super obese to have high blood pressure- a lot of mildly overweight people with stressful occupations have high blood pressure.

    Some NYC doctors are doing interviews suggesting this may be a blood disease as much as a lung disease. Which would explain why people with high blood pressure have far worse outcomes than asthmatics or even smokers.
  120. @Steve Sailer
    And a lot more so than 30 years ago. When my friend's brother signed with the New York Yankees in the 1990s, he was the only Yankee who lived in Manhattan. Now, quite a few of them do.

    When my friend’s brother signed with the New York Yankees in the 1990s

    From prior posts this would seem to be Black Jack McDowell, although you’ve never explicitly said so.

  121. @Reg Cæsar

    Some regulars are downright rambunctious lately. Seditious, even!
     
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sdbXGi2WX0Q

    Jeez Reg, now I’ve got the blues..

  122. @TomSchmidt
    What about chicken pox? Hep-B? Basically, if we didn't immunize for it before PC took over medicine and public health, should we immunize for it now?

    Thank you, Tom. Why are infants, less than an hour out of the wombs of hep-b negative mothers, given a hep b shot? I don’t know too many newborns out hooking, and unless that tot has a bleeding disorder, the chances of being exposed are virtually zero.
    Yet, it’s “done.”
    The justification? Get ‘m while it’s convenient, lest they not show up again before they do start hooking at 14. No, I am not kidding.

    I am NOT an anti-vaxxer. If I ever get bit by a bat, I will be the first one in line for the rabies vaccine, cuz rabies will KILL you, like, every time.

    But chicken pox? Is a mild childhood disease. (100 deaths per 3.5 million cases.) Shingles, otoh, is nasty and painful, affects old farts. And shingles is best prevented by exposing the oldsters to their grandkids while the kiddoes are enduring their own case of mild chickenpox, thus giving a booster to Grampa’s immunity to his own varicella. Now, THERE’s your herd immunity…being PREVENTED by chicken pox vax.

    The thing about the hysterical Pro-Vaxxer contingent, they never met a vaccine they DIDN’T like, nor are YOU allowed to not-like. Exactly as any religious fanatic.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    Most vaccines have few and rare side effects so you have a lot to gain and little to lose.
  123. @Anonymous
    Jon
    Really.
    I know he is obese by the BMI standards defined by organizations like WHO, CDC, etc. but he is not that unusual looking. I see 49 year olds with that body type all of the time. They arent dropping dead from the flu each flu season.

    https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/adult/defining.html

    He probably has high blood pressure though.

    Apparently that is the number one comorbidity for this disease. You don’t need to be super obese to have high blood pressure- a lot of mildly overweight people with stressful occupations have high blood pressure.

    Some NYC doctors are doing interviews suggesting this may be a blood disease as much as a lung disease. Which would explain why people with high blood pressure have far worse outcomes than asthmatics or even smokers.

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    I read somewhere they do not find the virus in blood, although hypertension is a risk factor (I have hypertension).
    Then again I also read that ACE inhibitors increase Covid-19 risk, and these are a common medication for high blood pressure. I guess being alive is dangerous.
  124. Anonymous[427] • Disclaimer says:
    @poolside
    People mention Joe Diffie, 61, but Adams wouldn’t count him because he’d never heard of him. I never had either, until his demise.

    Doesn't really matter now, but Joe Diffie was very well-known in country music. During the height of his popularity in the 1990s, he had 35 singles on the Billboard charts, including five No. 1s and 12 others that made the top 10. He also had two albums certified platinum and two certified gold, which used to be a big deal back when people bought records.

    In addition, he co-wrote a number of other charted songs recorded by other artists. And in 1988, he won a Grammy in collaboration with Marty Stuart. He was inducted into the Grand Ole Opry in 1993.

    All in all, a pretty solid career. It's tough for country artists to achieve the same level of awareness as a rapper or pop diva, but to much of the country, Diffie would be considered a "celebrity."

    I was working in a small town at an ag equipment plant and then in another small town in an electronics plant (they dedicated themselves exclusively to making paging equipment, knowing full well that cell phones would make paging obsolete except for a few niche applications in the foreseeable future; it was a designed pump-and-dump that made a dozen Canadian crooks multimillionaires) at the time Diffie was having big country hits. His tunes were ubiquitous and the local country cover bands all played them every set.

    But country artists, except for the very top performers, exist in a hazy world of fame and generally are forgotten pretty quickly except by a small hard core fan base.

  125. All but three people who died from COVID-19 in a major US city were black

    They mean St Louis, but the article doesn’t clearly distinguish between the city and the county which, like Baltimore’s, do not overlap.

    And this is before Freaknik, which is back.

    PLEASE NOTE WE HAVE CHANGED OUR DATES FROM JUNE TO SEPTEMBER & OFFERED A CHANCE TO LOCK IN EARLY BIRD PRICING FOR AS LOW AS $2 DOWN IN RESPONSE OF THE CORONA VIRUS!

    https://freaknikfest.com

    How responsible of them!!

    • Replies: @Kibernetika
    I hesitate to post this, but these are extraordinary times and we've got to speak truth to power. What's wrong with New Orleans (Chapter One):

    https://youtu.be/A01XMBco9VI

    John Kennedy Toole never encountered anything like this :(

    First encountered this trend in Bras/zil about a decade ago. And let's leave it as an exercise to the reader: What is o creu? Related to crew teams rowing ;)

    https://youtu.be/RyemZII2FA8

    , @Hebrew National
    Not sure I'd call St. Louis a "major city". Sure it was #4 in 1900 but that was then and this is now.
  126. @anon
    The NY Knicks still have their practice facility deep in the suburbs, a relic of the 80s and early 90s social trends. Meanwhile the Brooklyn Net's is in Brooklyn (near Manhattan). It's widely viewed as a competitive advantage (but the Knicks' having a bad owner is probably even a bigger detriment).

    As to celebs being super spreaders-- even if they are all immune tomorrow, it's not going to change the numbers at all. Kind of like IQ-- the next generation of geniuses isn't particularly drawn from the current crop of geniuses. The sheer number of kids to born to "plain" parents merely in top 1% or top 10% swamps the super genes.

    The Knicks used to practice in East Orange, New Jersey, at a college that no longer exists. Then they moved up to SUNY Purchase, which is right off of the Hutchinson River Parkway, which is the road to Connecticut that Steve mentioned a few weeks ago. Now they practice in a dedicated facility that they share with the Rangers which is located off of Saw Mill River Parkway. Both facilities are about a 45 minute drive from MSG.

    As you mention, the Nets facility is in Brooklyn, just like the team. The practice facility is on Gowanus Bay, about 15 minutes away from their arena. They used to practice at a dedicated facility in New Jersey that is now a YMCA and before that they would rent space at colleges or APA Trucking in North Bergen.

  127. @jsm
    Thank you, Tom. Why are infants, less than an hour out of the wombs of hep-b negative mothers, given a hep b shot? I don't know too many newborns out hooking, and unless that tot has a bleeding disorder, the chances of being exposed are virtually zero.
    Yet, it's "done."
    The justification? Get 'm while it's convenient, lest they not show up again before they do start hooking at 14. No, I am not kidding.

    I am NOT an anti-vaxxer. If I ever get bit by a bat, I will be the first one in line for the rabies vaccine, cuz rabies will KILL you, like, every time.

    But chicken pox? Is a mild childhood disease. (100 deaths per 3.5 million cases.) Shingles, otoh, is nasty and painful, affects old farts. And shingles is best prevented by exposing the oldsters to their grandkids while the kiddoes are enduring their own case of mild chickenpox, thus giving a booster to Grampa's immunity to his own varicella. Now, THERE's your herd immunity...being PREVENTED by chicken pox vax.

    The thing about the hysterical Pro-Vaxxer contingent, they never met a vaccine they DIDN'T like, nor are YOU allowed to not-like. Exactly as any religious fanatic.

    Most vaccines have few and rare side effects so you have a lot to gain and little to lose.

    • Replies: @jsm
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21568886
  128. @Dr. X

    How do you know they were black?
     
    Because that was the description of the suspects given by the Kern County Sheriff's Department, which was subsequently deleted by the Jewish-controlled media, you hasbara troll.

    If a headline says "Six Innocent Palestianians Shot on Israeli Border" we know who did it even if the article doesn't name the IDF directly... don't we?

    Dude, there is this “thing” called sarcasm. Let’s give HN some “space” to tell a sarcastic joke.

    The “tell” that this was in jest was mention of the Joad Family, fictitious characters in a novel depicting white people of a lower socio-economic stratum who migrated to California during the Depression. The real-life ancestors of the fictional Joads at least know how to shoot straight.

    A guy tells a joke that the average iSteve reader would “get” and he is a “hasbara troll”? I tagged HN with LOL because I had a genuine chuckle about his remarks.

    Geez, with this virus-lockdown thing, everyone on iSteve is at each other’s throat.

    • Thanks: Hebrew National
  129. @The Germ Theory of Disease
    Psst, now go ask Wittgenstein whether or not a hot dog is a sandwich.

    (GIGGLES TO THE OTHER KIDS). This is gonna be gooood!!

  130. @poolside
    People mention Joe Diffie, 61, but Adams wouldn’t count him because he’d never heard of him. I never had either, until his demise.

    Doesn't really matter now, but Joe Diffie was very well-known in country music. During the height of his popularity in the 1990s, he had 35 singles on the Billboard charts, including five No. 1s and 12 others that made the top 10. He also had two albums certified platinum and two certified gold, which used to be a big deal back when people bought records.

    In addition, he co-wrote a number of other charted songs recorded by other artists. And in 1988, he won a Grammy in collaboration with Marty Stuart. He was inducted into the Grand Ole Opry in 1993.

    All in all, a pretty solid career. It's tough for country artists to achieve the same level of awareness as a rapper or pop diva, but to much of the country, Diffie would be considered a "celebrity."

    I stand corrected.

  131. @Reg Cæsar
    All but three people who died from COVID-19 in a major US city were black

    They mean St Louis, but the article doesn't clearly distinguish between the city and the county which, like Baltimore's, do not overlap.


    And this is before Freaknik, which is back.

    PLEASE NOTE WE HAVE CHANGED OUR DATES FROM JUNE TO SEPTEMBER & OFFERED A CHANCE TO LOCK IN EARLY BIRD PRICING FOR AS LOW AS $2 DOWN IN RESPONSE OF THE CORONA VIRUS!


    https://freaknikfest.com


    How responsible of them!!


    https://cdn2.atlantamagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2015/03/Freaknik_turner_3.jpg

    https://saintheron.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/miami-bass-gif.gif

    I hesitate to post this, but these are extraordinary times and we’ve got to speak truth to power. What’s wrong with New Orleans (Chapter One):

    John Kennedy Toole never encountered anything like this 🙁

    First encountered this trend in Bras/zil about a decade ago. And let’s leave it as an exercise to the reader: What is o creu? Related to crew teams rowing 😉

  132. @Ron Unz

    I believe the South Korean data are the biggest and fullest sample, and they show that with good hospital care the mortality rate for those infected is 2%.
     
    Sure, I'd also been quite impressed by the South Korean data. But a couple of days ago a seemingly knowledgeable commenter from Iceland argued that a very large fraction of infections may actually be totally asymptomatic, which would drastically lowering the IFR suggested in South Korea, perhaps by a factor of 3 or 4. Here are links to a couple of comments on that thread:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/ioannidis-under-65s-dont-need-to-worry-much-about-dying-in-europe-in-u-s-though/#comment-3827663

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/ioannidis-under-65s-dont-need-to-worry-much-about-dying-in-europe-in-u-s-though/#comment-3828219

    The Iceland data is very intriguing and there was also that town in Germany where widespread testing found 15% of the population to be infected, the overwhelmingly majority asymptomatic.

    Presumably, all these early, somewhat contradictory datapoints will eventually be resolved. But at this stage, I'd guess that the IFR is probably lower than 1%, perhaps closer to 0.5%. But since these estimates seem to change every few days, I'll admit I still use 1% in my crude infection estimations.

    The German study is so riddled with errors that it’s basically meaningless.

    The Icelandic data is more promising, though I’m not sure what the good Icelandic commenter meant when talking about 0.2-0.3% mortality. There are 8 deaths and 1711 cases, making it a 0.46% mortality rate. (This reminds me of the early days in South Korea, where the mortality rate was around 0.5%, too.) There are also 770 active cases, including 10 in serious/critical condition. I guess some of these are going to die eventually – including some of the as yet asymptomatic or not serious cases (though I’d expect some of the serious/critical cases to survive). Still, the mortality rate in Iceland looks to be closer to the lower bound of estimates – perhaps even below 1%, if we are lucky.

    The Icelandic commenter’s comments provided a clue: it might be that social distancing worked better for the elderly in Iceland. In other words, we might be dealing with an atypically young sample in Iceland. Now this might have something to do with the peculiarities of Icelandic culture. I’m sure you have seen those memes about Scandinavians queuing with a 2 meter distance from each other, even in the absence of an epidemic. I don’t think this could be easily replicated elsewhere.

    Regarding the South Korea, I think their samples are large enough. If they hadn’t caught most (basically, all or almost all) of the asymptomatic cases, then those would’ve spread the disease unchecked, and they would have experienced unexplained symptomatic cases, pneumonia outbreaks with unknown origin. That nothing of the sort happened can only be explained by assuming that they really did catch even asymptomatic cases in South Korea.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
    Thanks. I hadn't bothered looked into the details of any of Icelandic results, and was just quite surprised when the commenter pointed to the very large number of asymptomatic infections and suggested that the IFR was therefore much lower than commonly believed. However, he himself pointed out the efforts made to protect elderly and otherwise vulnerable individuals.

    Since the Coronavirus popped up so very recently, I'm really not surprised that lots of the early data from different countries sometimes seems rather contradictory, especially with regard to infection rates and lethality. We don't even know whether it might subside during summer. Presumably, the evidence will gradually sort itself out within the next few months, at least if the virus doesn't significantly mutate.
    , @Harold
    Those numbers seem similar to ours in New Zealand.

    confirmed and probable cases 1366

    probable cases are cases with all the right symptoms and links to other cases but a negative test result

    cases in hospital 15

    deaths 9

    recovered 628

    age breakdown

    https://www.health.govt.nz/sites/default/files/images/our-work/diseases-conditions/covid19/covid-casesbyage-14april.png

    There are many cases in the 20-29 age group, presumably because that is a prime travelling age.
    , @Polynikes
    Where you, and Ron, and others are off the mark is in calculating IFR with test results cases. If you want to compare IFR to other viruses, and I assume you do, then you have to calculate them the same.

    There are probably less than a few thousand flu (type A) cases confirmed by test every year. (One article I read about Canada put it at under a thousand for that country). Yet we use the 30,000 to 50,000 case number to calculate the IFR.

    So when you see those German scientists or Ionnadis trying to come up with an accurate IFR to compare to other things, they are extrapolating. You can't just use test confirmed cases with test confirmed deaths. The test confirmed deaths will be low (although with current practices, how low is up for debate). Test confirmed cases will be really low. That's for numerous reasons: lack of tests, testing only symptomatic people, people who had it and didn't know it, etc...

    So others, in an effort to get comparable numbers to what we generally use, are using serology studies or "closed" cases (Princess cruise ship) to take better known numbers and extrapolate to get the IFR. It drops the rate down, but is a much better comparison if you want to compare to something like the regular flu, since they are both calculated the same.
  133. @Ron Unz

    I believe the South Korean data are the biggest and fullest sample, and they show that with good hospital care the mortality rate for those infected is 2%.
     
    Sure, I'd also been quite impressed by the South Korean data. But a couple of days ago a seemingly knowledgeable commenter from Iceland argued that a very large fraction of infections may actually be totally asymptomatic, which would drastically lowering the IFR suggested in South Korea, perhaps by a factor of 3 or 4. Here are links to a couple of comments on that thread:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/ioannidis-under-65s-dont-need-to-worry-much-about-dying-in-europe-in-u-s-though/#comment-3827663

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/ioannidis-under-65s-dont-need-to-worry-much-about-dying-in-europe-in-u-s-though/#comment-3828219

    The Iceland data is very intriguing and there was also that town in Germany where widespread testing found 15% of the population to be infected, the overwhelmingly majority asymptomatic.

    Presumably, all these early, somewhat contradictory datapoints will eventually be resolved. But at this stage, I'd guess that the IFR is probably lower than 1%, perhaps closer to 0.5%. But since these estimates seem to change every few days, I'll admit I still use 1% in my crude infection estimations.

    One more point showing that the South Korean testing regime was pretty thorough: in Iceland they found the 1,711 cases by testing 35,253 people, meaning that almost 5% of those tested were tested positive. This almost sounds like targeted testing when compared to South Korea, where they tested 527,438 people to find their 10,538 cases – so only 2% of those tested were tested positive.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    Testing positive for coronavirus means you have it at that particular time, negative doesn't mean you didn't have it already. An important point.
  134. @WHAT
    Threaten with what exactly, more of his meaningless words? Expelling H1B pajeets maybe, as if this new corporate MAGA will not eat him alive instantly?

    Trump has nothing on Modi, nothing on Putin, nothing on Xi.
    Trump is the quintessential bitch.

    Trump has the US military. What does India have?

    • Replies: @anon
    70% of production capacity to produce HCQ, supposedly the "game changer" pill to cure the plague that threatens to unseat him and put a cadaver in office. Our capacity to make PPE, test kits/reagents, rational policy etc., is bupkis.
    , @keypusher
    The US military is useless in this context (and most others). So if India has anything at all, it has more than Trump.
  135. @joeyjoejoe
    "First, I want to thank everybody who has already fired off a comment to the effect that “Tom Hanks is NOT popular with me.” Keep doing what you do. Don’t ever change."

    But they never said that. They said Tom Hanks isn't well liked by me.

    You are usually more intellectually honest than this.

    joe

    Case in point

  136. @Travis
    we knew ventilators would not work , yet Trump ordered US firms to manufacture thousands of ventilators....despite any evidence that ventilators would save lives

    Trump should invoked the Defense Production Act to force US pharmaceutical firms to produce more hydroxychoroquine. In New York and New Jersey hydroxychloroquine is not available at any Pharmacies, and azithromycin, is in very limited supply and almost unavailable today.

    Americans will feel safer going back to work if they know they will have access to treatments if they get sick. Today we even have a shortage of Tonic water and zinc. Until we have a supply of these prophylactics many Americans will be afraid to work or go to restaurants of take public transportation.

    we knew ventilators would not work , yet Trump ordered US firms to manufacture thousands of ventilators….despite any evidence that ventilators would save lives

    Trump should invoked the Defense Production Act to force US pharmaceutical firms to produce more hydroxychoroquine.

    Given that it’s still an unproven largely untested treatment with side effects that may be more lethal than the disease why should he do something like that? Why not wait until it’s been properly tested? It might not turn out to be such a miracle cure after all.

  137. I’m not part of the anti-Tom Hanks brigade but I can’t say I would ever go out of my way to pay for the price of a ticket for one of his movies. (The only current actor I would is Christian Bale, in the right movie.)

    But I wonder whether or not his COVID19 diagnosis was a fake. He’s 63 and has Type 2 diabetes. Not that this is a pandemic death sentence but he seems to have sailed through with scarcely a cough.

    It would certainly have been a good career move.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    It's good to be skeptical but only up to a point. Tom Hanks doesn't need any help with his career and if he did, it's not at all clear that announcing that he had Covid was really a career enhancing move.

    I saw Hank's wife on one of the morning shows today and she described their case and said that she had it worse than he did.

    Covid is a strange disease - for reasons that are not fully understood (yet) it affects some people MUCH worse than others. In the case of age, this is abundantly clear - in NY for example, 38% of the dead are over 80 and 2% of the dead are age 0 to 39, despite there being several times more people in the 0-39 group. So it is perhaps 50x as deadly for one group (old people) as for some other group (young people). That's a REALLY big spread. Likewise there are other factors which change the risk of the disease markedly. Hanks had some of these risk factors (moderate age risk, diabetes) but not others (no overweight, probably in good physical condition for his age, no known respiratory diseases, etc.) plus there is an element of randomness, how big of a viral load you received initially, etc.

    My brother in law, who (being retired) received no career enhancing benefits from his disease, is older than Hanks (70) and also has diabetes and nevertheless he experienced only moderately bad symptoms from his Covid - it wasn't fun but it didn't send him to the hospital either. We have been seeing too many news reports about the worst cases and are getting the wrong idea about this disease. It's not a sure death sentence or even a sure ticket to the ICU even for those with the highest risk factors - even if your risk of death is 50% (maybe you are 89 and have CPD), that means that there are another 50% who DON'T die. Many of those, like Hanks, even with high risks, will have a very uneventful course. In other (rare) cases, people with seemingly low risk factors will nevertheless have a bad case or even die. That's just the nature of disease, this disease in particular.
  138. Well, my first non–manual-labour job was researching ‘small-world networks’, ‘scale-free networks’ and other networks more similar to naturally-occurring networks. This was a faddish area of research at the time and a prodigious amount of papers were pumped out in short order. Many from physics departments, for whatever reason.

    Part of the interest in them was in disease spread. Social networks are said to be largely ‘scale-free’
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scale-free_network
    And the question was whether you could arrest the spread by knocking out the most connective nodes in the graph. So I am surprised epidemiological models still don’t take this research into account.

    My own research was into more abstruse and societally-useless mathematical aspects of their generation, and other mathematical questions—we need more women in science to take an interest in things that actually matter to people’s lives.

    Incidentally, iirc, sexual networks, and their relevance to STDs were ostensibly similar, with the Pareto distribution of ~80% of sex being had by ~20% of people, including if you limit it to women in a certain age range and exclude prostitutes, so, for the ‘game’ guys, your best bet is to try your luck with women who most-women-aren’t-like-that™

  139. @Tor597
    Trump has the US military. What does India have?

    70% of production capacity to produce HCQ, supposedly the “game changer” pill to cure the plague that threatens to unseat him and put a cadaver in office. Our capacity to make PPE, test kits/reagents, rational policy etc., is bupkis.

  140. • Replies: @Wielgus
    If you believe in a deity, God is indeed greater than Covid and decided to use it as his instrument. In this case, to end the life of Glenn. Why He would do so seems to defy logic but who ever said the Supreme Being bothers with such trifles?
  141. @reiner Tor
    The German study is so riddled with errors that it’s basically meaningless.

    The Icelandic data is more promising, though I’m not sure what the good Icelandic commenter meant when talking about 0.2-0.3% mortality. There are 8 deaths and 1711 cases, making it a 0.46% mortality rate. (This reminds me of the early days in South Korea, where the mortality rate was around 0.5%, too.) There are also 770 active cases, including 10 in serious/critical condition. I guess some of these are going to die eventually - including some of the as yet asymptomatic or not serious cases (though I’d expect some of the serious/critical cases to survive). Still, the mortality rate in Iceland looks to be closer to the lower bound of estimates - perhaps even below 1%, if we are lucky.

    The Icelandic commenter’s comments provided a clue: it might be that social distancing worked better for the elderly in Iceland. In other words, we might be dealing with an atypically young sample in Iceland. Now this might have something to do with the peculiarities of Icelandic culture. I’m sure you have seen those memes about Scandinavians queuing with a 2 meter distance from each other, even in the absence of an epidemic. I don’t think this could be easily replicated elsewhere.

    Regarding the South Korea, I think their samples are large enough. If they hadn’t caught most (basically, all or almost all) of the asymptomatic cases, then those would’ve spread the disease unchecked, and they would have experienced unexplained symptomatic cases, pneumonia outbreaks with unknown origin. That nothing of the sort happened can only be explained by assuming that they really did catch even asymptomatic cases in South Korea.

    Thanks. I hadn’t bothered looked into the details of any of Icelandic results, and was just quite surprised when the commenter pointed to the very large number of asymptomatic infections and suggested that the IFR was therefore much lower than commonly believed. However, he himself pointed out the efforts made to protect elderly and otherwise vulnerable individuals.

    Since the Coronavirus popped up so very recently, I’m really not surprised that lots of the early data from different countries sometimes seems rather contradictory, especially with regard to infection rates and lethality. We don’t even know whether it might subside during summer. Presumably, the evidence will gradually sort itself out within the next few months, at least if the virus doesn’t significantly mutate.

    • Agree: reiner Tor
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    I totally agree. We will know with a lot more certainty soon enough, one way or the other, while present data can only be seen as preliminary. But I usually like being ahead of the curve, and I think the current data is already good enough to tell us which way to bet - it's not yet certain, but we can set our priors so that we could have the highest probability of predicting the eventual data. So the below is just to show my thinking (which may change over time as new data is coming online).

    I think one point is that people (including myself until very recently) don't take into account is how long this disease can last, including in fatal cases. As a result, over the weeks, as the epidemic is stopped, mortality rates will be going up - no new cases, but some of the old cases keep dying. This is to be expected in Iceland - I'd expect their mortality rate to reach 1%, though I can certainly see grounds for optimism, with the relatively few people in ICU and the majority of cases already resolved. But there have been a few such instances when I believed some grounds for optimism, only to be crushed by mortality rates slowly creeping up.

    One obvious instance was the early foreign cases, like the 14 cases in Bavaria in January, not one of which were serious. So it was thought that the Chinese data was missing tons of mild cases. It still hangs in the balance, but after the past couple months I'm inclined to dismiss it as noise. (No one from a very small sample of young people not dying - it's perfectly consistent with the Chinese data.)

    Taiwan only has a mortality rate of 1.6%, but now I can see that their sample is very small (a couple more deaths would push it above 2%), and the vast majority (something like two thirds) of their cases are still active. I don't think it could meaningfully prove anything, and I'd expect their mortality to eventually reach 2% as well.

    Regarding South Korea, it was originally thought to be one of the most optimistic data points, with extensive testing and a low mortality (IFR) of just around 0.5%, but by now it's creeped up above 2%.

    So Iceland is the only high quality data set pointing to an IFR of <1%, but it's a relatively small sample (how many random samples of 1711 people would show less than 17 deaths if the IFR would prove to be 2% in most countries with a good and not overwhelmed healthcare system and a mean age of 45?), and as all of us (including the Icelandic commenter) acknowledge, a somewhat unusual age distribution. To the latter point, I just checked, Iceland's median age is 36.5 years, which is one of the lowest in the first world, and almost a decade younger than Germany's or Italy's corresponding data. So we'd already expect a significantly lower IFR in Iceland due to the age distribution alone. This reinforces my perception that the 2% IFR is a good estimate for countries with roughly 45 years of median age. However, for countries with a median age of below 40 (like the US with 38 years) the IFR could be lower, maybe 1.5% (and with a Scandinavian social distancing even in the absence of an epidemic and disciplined population it might be 1% only), at least that's my guesstimate right now. But all this presumes a good and functioning healthcare system which is not overwhelmed. (I.e. a first world healthcare system with a lockdown - and you'd probably need universal health insurance coverage as well.)

    I hope reading the above wasn't a total waste of time.
  142. @reiner Tor
    The German study is so riddled with errors that it’s basically meaningless.

    The Icelandic data is more promising, though I’m not sure what the good Icelandic commenter meant when talking about 0.2-0.3% mortality. There are 8 deaths and 1711 cases, making it a 0.46% mortality rate. (This reminds me of the early days in South Korea, where the mortality rate was around 0.5%, too.) There are also 770 active cases, including 10 in serious/critical condition. I guess some of these are going to die eventually - including some of the as yet asymptomatic or not serious cases (though I’d expect some of the serious/critical cases to survive). Still, the mortality rate in Iceland looks to be closer to the lower bound of estimates - perhaps even below 1%, if we are lucky.

    The Icelandic commenter’s comments provided a clue: it might be that social distancing worked better for the elderly in Iceland. In other words, we might be dealing with an atypically young sample in Iceland. Now this might have something to do with the peculiarities of Icelandic culture. I’m sure you have seen those memes about Scandinavians queuing with a 2 meter distance from each other, even in the absence of an epidemic. I don’t think this could be easily replicated elsewhere.

    Regarding the South Korea, I think their samples are large enough. If they hadn’t caught most (basically, all or almost all) of the asymptomatic cases, then those would’ve spread the disease unchecked, and they would have experienced unexplained symptomatic cases, pneumonia outbreaks with unknown origin. That nothing of the sort happened can only be explained by assuming that they really did catch even asymptomatic cases in South Korea.

    Those numbers seem similar to ours in New Zealand.

    confirmed and probable cases 1366

    probable cases are cases with all the right symptoms and links to other cases but a negative test result

    cases in hospital 15

    deaths 9

    recovered 628

    age breakdown

    There are many cases in the 20-29 age group, presumably because that is a prime travelling age.

    • Replies: @Harold
    Three in ICU
    , @reiner Tor
    The median age in New Zealand is basically the same as in Iceland, and much lower than in Italy or Germany.

    This might give hope to the USA as well, since the USA median age is close to Iceland and New Zealand.

    But in each of those countries I’d expect at least 1% eventual fatality rate among those infected.

  143. @Clyde
    The US-Canada had so few Indians that it was virgin land for Europeans. TODAY-- America has so few inhabitants (by Chi-Hindu standards) that it is virgin land to be conquered by Asians. "The scramble for America" was how Steve put it. https://www.takimag.com/article/the-scramble-for-america/

    Good point. And soon by Africans. Weird, though, how Europeans colonizing is the worst thing ever, but when Africans and Asians do it, it’s like the best thing ever.

    Thanks for the link to Steve’s Taki piece. I know that old-fashioned books are out of style, but it still seems obvious to me that someone should produce an edition of his collected works. Who’s a good editor around here with time on his/her hands?

    • Agree: Travis, anonymous1963
  144. @Ron Unz
    Thanks. I hadn't bothered looked into the details of any of Icelandic results, and was just quite surprised when the commenter pointed to the very large number of asymptomatic infections and suggested that the IFR was therefore much lower than commonly believed. However, he himself pointed out the efforts made to protect elderly and otherwise vulnerable individuals.

    Since the Coronavirus popped up so very recently, I'm really not surprised that lots of the early data from different countries sometimes seems rather contradictory, especially with regard to infection rates and lethality. We don't even know whether it might subside during summer. Presumably, the evidence will gradually sort itself out within the next few months, at least if the virus doesn't significantly mutate.

    I totally agree. We will know with a lot more certainty soon enough, one way or the other, while present data can only be seen as preliminary. But I usually like being ahead of the curve, and I think the current data is already good enough to tell us which way to bet – it’s not yet certain, but we can set our priors so that we could have the highest probability of predicting the eventual data. So the below is just to show my thinking (which may change over time as new data is coming online).

    I think one point is that people (including myself until very recently) don’t take into account is how long this disease can last, including in fatal cases. As a result, over the weeks, as the epidemic is stopped, mortality rates will be going up – no new cases, but some of the old cases keep dying. This is to be expected in Iceland – I’d expect their mortality rate to reach 1%, though I can certainly see grounds for optimism, with the relatively few people in ICU and the majority of cases already resolved. But there have been a few such instances when I believed some grounds for optimism, only to be crushed by mortality rates slowly creeping up.

    One obvious instance was the early foreign cases, like the 14 cases in Bavaria in January, not one of which were serious. So it was thought that the Chinese data was missing tons of mild cases. It still hangs in the balance, but after the past couple months I’m inclined to dismiss it as noise. (No one from a very small sample of young people not dying – it’s perfectly consistent with the Chinese data.)

    Taiwan only has a mortality rate of 1.6%, but now I can see that their sample is very small (a couple more deaths would push it above 2%), and the vast majority (something like two thirds) of their cases are still active. I don’t think it could meaningfully prove anything, and I’d expect their mortality to eventually reach 2% as well.

    Regarding South Korea, it was originally thought to be one of the most optimistic data points, with extensive testing and a low mortality (IFR) of just around 0.5%, but by now it’s creeped up above 2%.

    So Iceland is the only high quality data set pointing to an IFR of <1%, but it's a relatively small sample (how many random samples of 1711 people would show less than 17 deaths if the IFR would prove to be 2% in most countries with a good and not overwhelmed healthcare system and a mean age of 45?), and as all of us (including the Icelandic commenter) acknowledge, a somewhat unusual age distribution. To the latter point, I just checked, Iceland's median age is 36.5 years, which is one of the lowest in the first world, and almost a decade younger than Germany's or Italy's corresponding data. So we'd already expect a significantly lower IFR in Iceland due to the age distribution alone. This reinforces my perception that the 2% IFR is a good estimate for countries with roughly 45 years of median age. However, for countries with a median age of below 40 (like the US with 38 years) the IFR could be lower, maybe 1.5% (and with a Scandinavian social distancing even in the absence of an epidemic and disciplined population it might be 1% only), at least that's my guesstimate right now. But all this presumes a good and functioning healthcare system which is not overwhelmed. (I.e. a first world healthcare system with a lockdown – and you'd probably need universal health insurance coverage as well.)

    I hope reading the above wasn't a total waste of time.

    • Thanks: ic1000
    • Replies: @Travis
    in addition to knowing the average age of the nation or state we would need to know the obesity rate to calculate the fatality rates.

    It appears that obesity is the number one factor effecting the fatality rate after age. Recent reports indicate the obese have worse outcomes than those with lung disease or hear disease. This may be the reason Blacks are dying more than Whites , although the median age for African-Americans is 34 verse 44 for White Americans.

    One reason the death rate in California will be lower than New York is due to the different demographics. The median age in NY is 5 years older than in California. The elderly population in New York is 20% higher than California. The Black population in NY is 3 times greater than California. The Puerto Rican population in New York is 14 times greater than California, thus the mulatto population is significantly higher in NY

    We should expect the fatality rates in New York to be significantly higher than in California due to the older population in NY. Obesity is also more common in NY.
    , @Chrisnonymous

    a good and functioning healthcare system which is not overwhelmed
     
    This is really the core issue now.

    It's obvious we aren't dealing with something MERS-scale in fatality, even without preventive measures. So our goal now should be preventing chaos and panic, not preventing deaths or infections per se. I.e., focus on preventing conversion to severity.

    People like you (no criticism intended) should shift your focus over from analyzing death rates to teasing out data to try to figure out things, like, for example, whether or not initial infective dose is important in severity.
  145. Anonymous[380] • Disclaimer says:
    @Danindc
    A well deserved slap on the knuckles from Steve to the commentariat. Lol

    A well deserved slap on the knuckles from Steve to the commentariat. Lol

    What have we done to deserve that?

    • Replies: @Danindc
    You know what you did
  146. @Harold
    Those numbers seem similar to ours in New Zealand.

    confirmed and probable cases 1366

    probable cases are cases with all the right symptoms and links to other cases but a negative test result

    cases in hospital 15

    deaths 9

    recovered 628

    age breakdown

    https://www.health.govt.nz/sites/default/files/images/our-work/diseases-conditions/covid19/covid-casesbyage-14april.png

    There are many cases in the 20-29 age group, presumably because that is a prime travelling age.

    Three in ICU

  147. @Harold
    Those numbers seem similar to ours in New Zealand.

    confirmed and probable cases 1366

    probable cases are cases with all the right symptoms and links to other cases but a negative test result

    cases in hospital 15

    deaths 9

    recovered 628

    age breakdown

    https://www.health.govt.nz/sites/default/files/images/our-work/diseases-conditions/covid19/covid-casesbyage-14april.png

    There are many cases in the 20-29 age group, presumably because that is a prime travelling age.

    The median age in New Zealand is basically the same as in Iceland, and much lower than in Italy or Germany.

    This might give hope to the USA as well, since the USA median age is close to Iceland and New Zealand.

    But in each of those countries I’d expect at least 1% eventual fatality rate among those infected.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    New Zealand has large numbers of obese Maoris though.

    Anyway that New Zealand data would necessarily omit almost all asymptomatic cases, which we already know might be around fifty percent of cases. Then you have coding of deaths issues. My aunt has/had coronavirus, but she also has terminal cancer that has spread to her throat so she can't keep down much food. Cancer will kill her but she could be coded as a death with coronavirus.
  148. @reiner Tor
    One more point showing that the South Korean testing regime was pretty thorough: in Iceland they found the 1,711 cases by testing 35,253 people, meaning that almost 5% of those tested were tested positive. This almost sounds like targeted testing when compared to South Korea, where they tested 527,438 people to find their 10,538 cases - so only 2% of those tested were tested positive.

    Testing positive for coronavirus means you have it at that particular time, negative doesn’t mean you didn’t have it already. An important point.

    • Agree: Polynikes
    • Replies: @Bill
    In the exponential growth phase, this isn't a huge effect. Most of the people who ever had it, have it now as long as it's growing fast. I don't know how to do tabular data properly here, the code html tag does not work, but here's a try:

    Columns are: Week #, Number Who Have Now, Number Who Have Ever Had

    0 1 1
    2 3 4
    4 9 13
    6 27 40
    8 131 171
    10 393 564

    Notice that the number who have ever had is never as much as twice the number who have now. This assumes infections last 2 weeks and infected infect 3 new people.
    , @Anonymous

    Testing positive for coronavirus means you have it at that particular time, negative doesn’t mean you didn’t have it already. An important point.
     
    Negative also doesn’t mean you do not have it right then and there.

    Large percentage of false negatives.
  149. @reiner Tor
    The median age in New Zealand is basically the same as in Iceland, and much lower than in Italy or Germany.

    This might give hope to the USA as well, since the USA median age is close to Iceland and New Zealand.

    But in each of those countries I’d expect at least 1% eventual fatality rate among those infected.

    New Zealand has large numbers of obese Maoris though.

    Anyway that New Zealand data would necessarily omit almost all asymptomatic cases, which we already know might be around fifty percent of cases. Then you have coding of deaths issues. My aunt has/had coronavirus, but she also has terminal cancer that has spread to her throat so she can’t keep down much food. Cancer will kill her but she could be coded as a death with coronavirus.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    New Zealand has large numbers of obese Maoris though.
     
    Those lists that show either the US or Mexico atop the world obesity tables always leave out the many small island countries throughout the Pacific.


    The top 10 most obese nations are as follows:

    Nauru (Average BMI: 32.5)
    Tonga (Average BMI: 31.9)
    Samoa (Average BMI: 31.7)
    Kuwait (Average BMI: 30)
    Saint Kitts and Nevis (Average BMI: 29.7)
    Saint Lucia (Average BMI: 29.6)
    Kiribati (Average BMI: 29.6)
    Palau (Average BMI: 29.4)
    Micronesia (Average BMI: 29.4)
    Tuvalu (Average BMI: 29.3)



    https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/most-obese-countries/
     
    What is "obese" among Polynesians, though? Eighteen is the gateway to adulthood for humans, but is superannuated for dogs.

    The 700-lb (50-stone) Bruddah Iz would qualify by the most restrictive standard:


    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=w_DKWlrA24k&t=50s
  150. Anonymous[380] • Disclaimer says:
    @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    To be fair, during their famous '61 season, both NY Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle (along with NY Bob Cerv shared an apartment together in Queens before Mantle moved back to Manhattan. DiMaggio lived in Manhattan for a while as well, as did Derek Jeter.

    To be fair, during their famous ’61 season, both NY Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle (along with NY Bob Cerv shared an apartment together in Queens before Mantle moved back to Manhattan. DiMaggio lived in Manhattan for a while as well, as did Derek Jeter.

    What parts of Manhattan did they live in?

  151. @reiner Tor
    I totally agree. We will know with a lot more certainty soon enough, one way or the other, while present data can only be seen as preliminary. But I usually like being ahead of the curve, and I think the current data is already good enough to tell us which way to bet - it's not yet certain, but we can set our priors so that we could have the highest probability of predicting the eventual data. So the below is just to show my thinking (which may change over time as new data is coming online).

    I think one point is that people (including myself until very recently) don't take into account is how long this disease can last, including in fatal cases. As a result, over the weeks, as the epidemic is stopped, mortality rates will be going up - no new cases, but some of the old cases keep dying. This is to be expected in Iceland - I'd expect their mortality rate to reach 1%, though I can certainly see grounds for optimism, with the relatively few people in ICU and the majority of cases already resolved. But there have been a few such instances when I believed some grounds for optimism, only to be crushed by mortality rates slowly creeping up.

    One obvious instance was the early foreign cases, like the 14 cases in Bavaria in January, not one of which were serious. So it was thought that the Chinese data was missing tons of mild cases. It still hangs in the balance, but after the past couple months I'm inclined to dismiss it as noise. (No one from a very small sample of young people not dying - it's perfectly consistent with the Chinese data.)

    Taiwan only has a mortality rate of 1.6%, but now I can see that their sample is very small (a couple more deaths would push it above 2%), and the vast majority (something like two thirds) of their cases are still active. I don't think it could meaningfully prove anything, and I'd expect their mortality to eventually reach 2% as well.

    Regarding South Korea, it was originally thought to be one of the most optimistic data points, with extensive testing and a low mortality (IFR) of just around 0.5%, but by now it's creeped up above 2%.

    So Iceland is the only high quality data set pointing to an IFR of <1%, but it's a relatively small sample (how many random samples of 1711 people would show less than 17 deaths if the IFR would prove to be 2% in most countries with a good and not overwhelmed healthcare system and a mean age of 45?), and as all of us (including the Icelandic commenter) acknowledge, a somewhat unusual age distribution. To the latter point, I just checked, Iceland's median age is 36.5 years, which is one of the lowest in the first world, and almost a decade younger than Germany's or Italy's corresponding data. So we'd already expect a significantly lower IFR in Iceland due to the age distribution alone. This reinforces my perception that the 2% IFR is a good estimate for countries with roughly 45 years of median age. However, for countries with a median age of below 40 (like the US with 38 years) the IFR could be lower, maybe 1.5% (and with a Scandinavian social distancing even in the absence of an epidemic and disciplined population it might be 1% only), at least that's my guesstimate right now. But all this presumes a good and functioning healthcare system which is not overwhelmed. (I.e. a first world healthcare system with a lockdown - and you'd probably need universal health insurance coverage as well.)

    I hope reading the above wasn't a total waste of time.

    in addition to knowing the average age of the nation or state we would need to know the obesity rate to calculate the fatality rates.

    It appears that obesity is the number one factor effecting the fatality rate after age. Recent reports indicate the obese have worse outcomes than those with lung disease or hear disease. This may be the reason Blacks are dying more than Whites , although the median age for African-Americans is 34 verse 44 for White Americans.

    One reason the death rate in California will be lower than New York is due to the different demographics. The median age in NY is 5 years older than in California. The elderly population in New York is 20% higher than California. The Black population in NY is 3 times greater than California. The Puerto Rican population in New York is 14 times greater than California, thus the mulatto population is significantly higher in NY

    We should expect the fatality rates in New York to be significantly higher than in California due to the older population in NY. Obesity is also more common in NY.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Californians are, by present day national standards, fairly skinny (relatively speaking) and don't smoke much.
    , @res
    This comment of mine (responding to utu's comment in the inner blockquotes) in another thread gives some numbers which may help estimating the size of this effect.
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/new-york-vs-california/#comment-3831677


    Flu mortality is usually higher in NY than in California.
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/flu_pneumonia_mortality/flu_pneumonia.htm

     

    Thanks. That shows NY death rate about 18% greater. 18.4 vs. 15.6 per 100,000.

    Important to note that those death rates are age adjusted so they actually don’t capture Travis’s demographic point. The raw number of deaths is given as well. 5,521 for NY, 7,553 for CA

    Using 2018 population figures of 19.53 million for NY and 39.46 million for CA we calculate raw deaths per 100,00 as 28.3 for NY and 19.1 for CA so you can see that the raw difference is even larger (>2x the percentage difference!). As one would expect from Travis’s point.

     

    , @Reg Cæsar

    Obesity is also more common in NY.
     
    It's far worse in Philadelphia, not a Covid hotbed.


    And are you comparing the entire California Republic with New York State or New York City? You're comparing oranges with apples if you don't include appleknockers, whose Covid-19 rates are closer to the norm.
  152. @Travis
    in addition to knowing the average age of the nation or state we would need to know the obesity rate to calculate the fatality rates.

    It appears that obesity is the number one factor effecting the fatality rate after age. Recent reports indicate the obese have worse outcomes than those with lung disease or hear disease. This may be the reason Blacks are dying more than Whites , although the median age for African-Americans is 34 verse 44 for White Americans.

    One reason the death rate in California will be lower than New York is due to the different demographics. The median age in NY is 5 years older than in California. The elderly population in New York is 20% higher than California. The Black population in NY is 3 times greater than California. The Puerto Rican population in New York is 14 times greater than California, thus the mulatto population is significantly higher in NY

    We should expect the fatality rates in New York to be significantly higher than in California due to the older population in NY. Obesity is also more common in NY.

    Californians are, by present day national standards, fairly skinny (relatively speaking) and don’t smoke much.

  153. @Servant of Gla'aki

    Tom singlehandedly delay the acceptance of gay marriage for over 25 years!
     
    An amusing theory, to be sure...but one I can't address, because I am a 49-year-old straight man, and thus have never seen this film. I'm pretty sure only Boomers, and people with a vested interest in gay cinema ("homos") have ever seen it. Maybe a few girls too?

    I caught it randomly on TV in several E.European countries, including mine, over the years. Our networks are suckers for Oscar movies, though.

    • Replies: @Alfred
    I caught it randomly on TV in several E.European countries

    It was no accident even if you thought so. It is the brainwashing of East Europeans so that they have gay parades like the USA, Australia and so on. Some call it Soft Power- like a flaccid penis.

    https://cdn.gaystarnews.com/uploads/2019/03/The-41st-Sydney-Gay-and-Lesbian-Mardi-Gras-parade.jpg
  154. @S. Anonyia
    He probably has high blood pressure though.

    Apparently that is the number one comorbidity for this disease. You don’t need to be super obese to have high blood pressure- a lot of mildly overweight people with stressful occupations have high blood pressure.

    Some NYC doctors are doing interviews suggesting this may be a blood disease as much as a lung disease. Which would explain why people with high blood pressure have far worse outcomes than asthmatics or even smokers.

    I read somewhere they do not find the virus in blood, although hypertension is a risk factor (I have hypertension).
    Then again I also read that ACE inhibitors increase Covid-19 risk, and these are a common medication for high blood pressure. I guess being alive is dangerous.

  155. @anon
    Bishop Glenn who asserted that God is greater than Covid has died:

    https://www.wtvr.com/news/coronavirus/richmond-pastor-bishop-glenn-dead-covid-19-new-deliverance-evangelistic-church

    If you believe in a deity, God is indeed greater than Covid and decided to use it as his instrument. In this case, to end the life of Glenn. Why He would do so seems to defy logic but who ever said the Supreme Being bothers with such trifles?

    • Agree: Hibernian
  156. @Ron Unz

    I believe the South Korean data are the biggest and fullest sample, and they show that with good hospital care the mortality rate for those infected is 2%.
     
    Sure, I'd also been quite impressed by the South Korean data. But a couple of days ago a seemingly knowledgeable commenter from Iceland argued that a very large fraction of infections may actually be totally asymptomatic, which would drastically lowering the IFR suggested in South Korea, perhaps by a factor of 3 or 4. Here are links to a couple of comments on that thread:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/ioannidis-under-65s-dont-need-to-worry-much-about-dying-in-europe-in-u-s-though/#comment-3827663

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/ioannidis-under-65s-dont-need-to-worry-much-about-dying-in-europe-in-u-s-though/#comment-3828219

    The Iceland data is very intriguing and there was also that town in Germany where widespread testing found 15% of the population to be infected, the overwhelmingly majority asymptomatic.

    Presumably, all these early, somewhat contradictory datapoints will eventually be resolved. But at this stage, I'd guess that the IFR is probably lower than 1%, perhaps closer to 0.5%. But since these estimates seem to change every few days, I'll admit I still use 1% in my crude infection estimations.

    Mr, Unz. I had just come upon the Unz Review when I was made aware you were a candidate for Senator in California. I watched a Senate debate waiting for my new found hero to dazzle.

    I really believed the Unz guy was going to stick it to the other guys and gals………….not sure of the make up, maybe 7 on stage. Without being mean spirited, you fizzled………..where is that Unz guy?

    How to make up for lack of charisma?

    The body language and just total lack of conviction was a non starter.

    I so much wanted you to set that stage on fire. And it was head down, and timid speech.

    I wanted UNZ……………and I got Chauncey Gardner.

    Now when it comes to data points and figures………….start with admission that it is not a virus.

    It is man made biological warfare…………not a bat, a cat, dog, or pangolin. Or some other off brand meat.

    I know the whole Sandy Hook thing destroyed the man. He fucked up.

    He screams loudly……….but give a listen to Alex Jones. You won’t because ..the story line on Alex Jones is so carved in stone.

    Myself hated the man. No longer.

    Seems like the type of man who would have shredded Kamala Harris onstage, and screamed at the audience who adored her.

    I tuned into to the Senate Debate for the Unz Review guy………..and I got the nebbish friend from 10th grade.

    Alex Jones column here………..nothing in it for me.

    The Alex Jones opinion…………….sort of unfortunate he predicted a world war in 2 months with China

  157. @ATate
    Wait....you MEET readers?

    Get the eff out of here?

    Really?

    That's kind of cool. I imagine that might be a good fundraising tool as well, with proper vetting. I mean if sports icons or politicians charge money to give the same canned speeches at some Corpo event, I could definitely see you charging a fee to readers and touring golf architecture sites or touring around the Bush's Compton neighborhood.

    I assume this is a way for you to raise money? I'm absolutely for it 100%.

    There ought to be an iSteve ocean cruise. A tour of various Caribbean islands, with emphasis on how ethnic origin and colonial history correlate with shitholocity today.

    • Replies: @Jack D

    how ethnic origin and colonial history correlate with shitholocity today
     
    I have heard various explanations about how this or that island was the first/last stop for the slave ships and so got all of the best/worst slaves but I'm not sure that I really buy into them, especially if you are talking only about the British ruled islands (Haiti is in a class by itself). Fundamentally, most of the islands had an economy based on sugar cane cultivation and most of the islands ended up populated mostly by Africans (if the Columbian discovery in the Caribbean was intentionally aimed at repopulating it with blacks the results could not have been any better - lots of intentional plans don't achieve nearly as good results). The rest is mostly background noise and "just so" stories. It should also be noted that there has been a lot of movement between islands, much in just the last few decades as the tourist economy picked up in some places more than others. So while the populations remain largely black everywhere, they are not necessarily the ORIGINAL blacks or their descendants who may be far outnumbered by the newcomers.
    , @anon

    There ought to be an iSteve ocean cruise.
     
    Yes, and Steve can give talks from his cabin cupboard via video link.
  158. @Reg Cæsar
    All but three people who died from COVID-19 in a major US city were black

    They mean St Louis, but the article doesn't clearly distinguish between the city and the county which, like Baltimore's, do not overlap.


    And this is before Freaknik, which is back.

    PLEASE NOTE WE HAVE CHANGED OUR DATES FROM JUNE TO SEPTEMBER & OFFERED A CHANCE TO LOCK IN EARLY BIRD PRICING FOR AS LOW AS $2 DOWN IN RESPONSE OF THE CORONA VIRUS!


    https://freaknikfest.com


    How responsible of them!!


    https://cdn2.atlantamagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2015/03/Freaknik_turner_3.jpg

    https://saintheron.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/miami-bass-gif.gif

    Not sure I’d call St. Louis a “major city”. Sure it was #4 in 1900 but that was then and this is now.

    • Replies: @Hibernian
    Marginally a major city, like Milwaukee, Kansas city, and Cincinnati.
  159. https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/03/05/fact-check-coronavirus-test-does-not-cost-3000-medical-bills/4949078002/

    I searched in vain on the Unz site for where I picked up that $3,000 claim for a virus test, although it is there somewhere. The USA Today article I link to says the claim was widespread in early March, but also maintains it is untrue.

  160. @Anonymous

    The second phenomenon is slightly different: not only should it be necessary to remove fewer vertices to stop the epidemic (above), but the epidemic should remove (i.e., infect) its most “precious” nodes earliest, because they are the most connected ones.
     
    What is a “vertice”?

    The plural of “ex” is “ices”. For example, “Donald Trump is on good terms with most of his ices.”

  161. @Servant of Gla'aki

    Tom singlehandedly delay the acceptance of gay marriage for over 25 years!
     
    An amusing theory, to be sure...but one I can't address, because I am a 49-year-old straight man, and thus have never seen this film. I'm pretty sure only Boomers, and people with a vested interest in gay cinema ("homos") have ever seen it. Maybe a few girls too?

    An amusing theory, to be sure…but one I can’t address, because I am a 49-year-old straight man, and thus have never seen this film. I’m pretty sure only Boomers, and people with a vested interest in gay cinema (“homos”) have ever seen it. Maybe a few girls too?

    I’m a 53-year-old straight man and I saw it. I’d already grown sick and tired of what might in retrospect have been called ‘neocon’ Hollywood films stressing the heroism of attacking other countries. I decided to watch some gentle, human interest films instead. What I got was faggots and abortions and alcoholism and saintly immigrants. That’s when I gave up watching films completely. I still remember feeling sympathy with those ghastly white men making jokes about queers.

    • Replies: @The Grim Joker
    No kidding. Make a film about Mother Teresa and you wont sell a single ticket. Make a film about two men "coming out" , kissing and buggering each other and raising a child or two in that faggot environment and its a box office sellout with Part 2, 3 and 4 in the planning stages.

    As a species it is what we have become, vile in body and vile in mind....and we are the highest on this planet. God alone knows where we will be in 50 years !
    , @Servant of Gla'aki

    I’m a 53-year-old straight man and I saw it. I’d already grown sick and tired of what might in retrospect have been called ‘neocon’ Hollywood films stressing the heroism of attacking other countries. I decided to watch some gentle, human interest films instead. What I got was faggots and abortions and alcoholism and saintly immigrants. That’s when I gave up watching films completely.
     
    I feel like there are a lot of other films which fall outside that rather limited binary you've presented, but I can understand why you wouldn't want to watch the bulk of the films you've alluded to.
  162. @Servant of Gla'aki

    Tom singlehandedly delay the acceptance of gay marriage for over 25 years!
     
    An amusing theory, to be sure...but one I can't address, because I am a 49-year-old straight man, and thus have never seen this film. I'm pretty sure only Boomers, and people with a vested interest in gay cinema ("homos") have ever seen it. Maybe a few girls too?

    I’m pretty sure only Boomers, and people with a vested interest in gay cinema (“homos”) have ever seen it. Maybe a few girls too?

    It came out in 1993, when the youngest boomers were hitting 29 or 31, depending on how you count. It was the 12th-highest grossing movie in the U.S. that year ($77.4 million). Movie audiences skew young, as you may know. And you think only people over 30, plus “homos” and a few girls saw it?

    I’m pretty sure you’re a complete idiot. I love reading troglodytes trying to describe, in the teeth of facts and logic, how humans behave.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    Nah, Servant was just showing us how NOT gay he is. He is NOT gay at all. He is NOT INTERESTED in gay things. No homo. And he is no BOOMER either . He is proud to be a NOT gay NOT boomer NOT girl type person and would NEVER watch a movie that has ever been watched by such a person lest it rub off on him.
    , @Servant of Gla'aki

    It came out in 1993, when the youngest boomers were hitting 29 or 31, depending on how you count. It was the 12th-highest grossing movie in the U.S. that year ($77.4 million). Movie audiences skew young, as you may know. And you think only people over 30, plus “homos” and a few girls saw it?
     
    I can't help but notice you didn't indicate you had seen it, however. Which I think counts for a lot more than your boring speculation that people in their teens & early 20 were flocking to this film in 1994* (I was there, and I can assure you we were not).

    *the year this film was actually released

  163. @Danindc
    A well deserved slap on the knuckles from Steve to the commentariat. Lol

    Get back in your house, citizen.

  164. @Tor597
    Trump has the US military. What does India have?

    The US military is useless in this context (and most others). So if India has anything at all, it has more than Trump.

  165. @Anonymous

    A well deserved slap on the knuckles from Steve to the commentariat. Lol
     
    What have we done to deserve that?

    You know what you did

  166. @Hebrew National
    Unfortunately, every child who goes to school is a potential superspreader, and a lot of even us unpopular people have a child or two.

    “Unfortunately, every child who goes to school is a potential superspreader”

    Let’s euthanize everyone under 30 because they are immune to kung flu. Then we can rest easy.

    Signed,
    Captain Sailer and The Boomers

    • Replies: @Jack D
    No one is really immune (unless they have had it- maybe) but there are lots of symptomless carriers who may be infectious to their grandmas.

    In NYC, they have been testing pregnant females who are about to deliver and they found that 13.5% of them are positive for Wuhan Virus and completely unaware that they even have the disease while only 1.9% were positive with symptoms. In other words, the # of infected people might be 6x greater than the number of reported cases, at least among young healthy individuals. Since NY has had almost 200,000 reported cases, it may be that up to 1 million individuals have been infected, of which 10,000 (.1%) have died. Or maybe the 6 to 1 ratio is only for young females so the under-reporting is not as great for the general population.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8217215/One-sixth-pregnant-women-New-York-infected-coronavirus-small-study-reveals.html
  167. @reiner Tor
    The German study is so riddled with errors that it’s basically meaningless.

    The Icelandic data is more promising, though I’m not sure what the good Icelandic commenter meant when talking about 0.2-0.3% mortality. There are 8 deaths and 1711 cases, making it a 0.46% mortality rate. (This reminds me of the early days in South Korea, where the mortality rate was around 0.5%, too.) There are also 770 active cases, including 10 in serious/critical condition. I guess some of these are going to die eventually - including some of the as yet asymptomatic or not serious cases (though I’d expect some of the serious/critical cases to survive). Still, the mortality rate in Iceland looks to be closer to the lower bound of estimates - perhaps even below 1%, if we are lucky.

    The Icelandic commenter’s comments provided a clue: it might be that social distancing worked better for the elderly in Iceland. In other words, we might be dealing with an atypically young sample in Iceland. Now this might have something to do with the peculiarities of Icelandic culture. I’m sure you have seen those memes about Scandinavians queuing with a 2 meter distance from each other, even in the absence of an epidemic. I don’t think this could be easily replicated elsewhere.

    Regarding the South Korea, I think their samples are large enough. If they hadn’t caught most (basically, all or almost all) of the asymptomatic cases, then those would’ve spread the disease unchecked, and they would have experienced unexplained symptomatic cases, pneumonia outbreaks with unknown origin. That nothing of the sort happened can only be explained by assuming that they really did catch even asymptomatic cases in South Korea.

    Where you, and Ron, and others are off the mark is in calculating IFR with test results cases. If you want to compare IFR to other viruses, and I assume you do, then you have to calculate them the same.

    There are probably less than a few thousand flu (type A) cases confirmed by test every year. (One article I read about Canada put it at under a thousand for that country). Yet we use the 30,000 to 50,000 case number to calculate the IFR.

    So when you see those German scientists or Ionnadis trying to come up with an accurate IFR to compare to other things, they are extrapolating. You can’t just use test confirmed cases with test confirmed deaths. The test confirmed deaths will be low (although with current practices, how low is up for debate). Test confirmed cases will be really low. That’s for numerous reasons: lack of tests, testing only symptomatic people, people who had it and didn’t know it, etc…

    So others, in an effort to get comparable numbers to what we generally use, are using serology studies or “closed” cases (Princess cruise ship) to take better known numbers and extrapolate to get the IFR. It drops the rate down, but is a much better comparison if you want to compare to something like the regular flu, since they are both calculated the same.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    Well, if the South Koreans (who were literally catching everyone and their dog who got into contact with anyone testing positive) didn't catch basically all asymptomatic cases, then how is it possible that those uncaught asymptomatic cases didn't infect others, who in turn infected still others, etc., leading eventually to pneumonia cases - because that's how this virus was noticed in the first place, wasn't it? People were just getting unusual and unusually severe pneumonia. So how do you explain that A) pneumonia cases were clustering in a few places, and B) each one of those were the result of a known chain of infection, if you believe that tons of asymptomatic cases were uncaught by the South Koreans?

    It just doesn't make sense. I could've asked the same question about Lombardy (and especially specific localities in Lombardy like Bergamo or Castiglione d’Adda. The latter had a 1.3% mortality rate over a few weeks until March 21 (so the eventual mortality rate should probably be over 2%, given how many deaths occur a month or more after getting infected), that is, 1.3% of the population.
  168. Anonymous[239] • Disclaimer says:

    Not a scientist here but this is why I have such a problem with the concept of Ro. What are we measuring when we say one person will infect x others? Isn’t it hugely dependent on factors like Hanksness as well as need to ride subways? What is the usefulness of a concept that may have some theoretical justification (one person in a lab will infect x others at y distance over z time period) but which gets swamped by reality? I mean, I get the usefulness of the idea but how can it be helpful to crank it into an assumption to a model without taking account of the particulars?

    • Replies: @Alfred
    Not a scientist here but this is why I have such a problem with the concept of Ro.

    I am glad someone else is on the ball. I explained it in detail at comment #228.

    Networks do not behave the way people like to think.
  169. @JohnnyWalker123
    https://twitter.com/MattWalshBlog/status/1249412488363376640

    At our hospitals they’ve cut then hours of all the part-Time hourly staff

  170. @Jack D
    Most vaccines have few and rare side effects so you have a lot to gain and little to lose.
  171. @Travis
    in addition to knowing the average age of the nation or state we would need to know the obesity rate to calculate the fatality rates.

    It appears that obesity is the number one factor effecting the fatality rate after age. Recent reports indicate the obese have worse outcomes than those with lung disease or hear disease. This may be the reason Blacks are dying more than Whites , although the median age for African-Americans is 34 verse 44 for White Americans.

    One reason the death rate in California will be lower than New York is due to the different demographics. The median age in NY is 5 years older than in California. The elderly population in New York is 20% higher than California. The Black population in NY is 3 times greater than California. The Puerto Rican population in New York is 14 times greater than California, thus the mulatto population is significantly higher in NY

    We should expect the fatality rates in New York to be significantly higher than in California due to the older population in NY. Obesity is also more common in NY.

    This comment of mine (responding to utu’s comment in the inner blockquotes) in another thread gives some numbers which may help estimating the size of this effect.
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/new-york-vs-california/#comment-3831677

    Flu mortality is usually higher in NY than in California.
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/flu_pneumonia_mortality/flu_pneumonia.htm

    Thanks. That shows NY death rate about 18% greater. 18.4 vs. 15.6 per 100,000.

    Important to note that those death rates are age adjusted so they actually don’t capture Travis’s demographic point. The raw number of deaths is given as well. 5,521 for NY, 7,553 for CA

    Using 2018 population figures of 19.53 million for NY and 39.46 million for CA we calculate raw deaths per 100,00 as 28.3 for NY and 19.1 for CA so you can see that the raw difference is even larger (>2x the percentage difference!). As one would expect from Travis’s point.

  172. @Hebrew National
    Not sure I'd call St. Louis a "major city". Sure it was #4 in 1900 but that was then and this is now.

    Marginally a major city, like Milwaukee, Kansas city, and Cincinnati.

  173. “First, I want to thank everybody who has already fired off a comment to the effect that “Tom Hanks is NOT popular with me.” Keep doing what you do. Don’t ever change.”
    But they never said that. They said Tom Hanks isn’t well liked by me.
    You are usually more intellectually honest than this.”

    “Case in point”

    “Psst, now go ask Wittgenstein whether or not a hot dog is a sandwich.
    (GIGGLES TO THE OTHER KIDS). This is gonna be gooood!!”

    “Like Steve said: Don’t ever change.”

    “Case in point”

    You all don’t get the point: popularity (amongst a population) isn’t the synonymous with preference (By an individual).

    You four made that mistake because you’re not intelligent enough to know the difference.

    Steve pretended to make the mistake, despite the fact that he’s intelligent enough to know the difference, because it was effective rhetoric.

    Thus, he was intellectually dishonest. You guys? Just poorly read.

    And me? I don’t mind Tom Hanks. I just dislike intellectual sloppiness (faux or genuine).

    joe

  174. The spread will slow when we run out of elderly obese Americans.

    The spread will slow when more Americans realize the benefits of zinc, Vitamin D and quercetin to prevent illness and when we have an adequate supply of hydroxychloroquine for health care workers to use as a prophylactic.

  175. @LondonBob
    Testing positive for coronavirus means you have it at that particular time, negative doesn't mean you didn't have it already. An important point.

    In the exponential growth phase, this isn’t a huge effect. Most of the people who ever had it, have it now as long as it’s growing fast. I don’t know how to do tabular data properly here, the code html tag does not work, but here’s a try:

    Columns are: Week #, Number Who Have Now, Number Who Have Ever Had

    0 1 1
    2 3 4
    4 9 13
    6 27 40
    8 131 171
    10 393 564

    Notice that the number who have ever had is never as much as twice the number who have now. This assumes infections last 2 weeks and infected infect 3 new people.

  176. @Jane Plain
    I'm not part of the anti-Tom Hanks brigade but I can't say I would ever go out of my way to pay for the price of a ticket for one of his movies. (The only current actor I would is Christian Bale, in the right movie.)

    But I wonder whether or not his COVID19 diagnosis was a fake. He's 63 and has Type 2 diabetes. Not that this is a pandemic death sentence but he seems to have sailed through with scarcely a cough.

    It would certainly have been a good career move.

    It’s good to be skeptical but only up to a point. Tom Hanks doesn’t need any help with his career and if he did, it’s not at all clear that announcing that he had Covid was really a career enhancing move.

    I saw Hank’s wife on one of the morning shows today and she described their case and said that she had it worse than he did.

    Covid is a strange disease – for reasons that are not fully understood (yet) it affects some people MUCH worse than others. In the case of age, this is abundantly clear – in NY for example, 38% of the dead are over 80 and 2% of the dead are age 0 to 39, despite there being several times more people in the 0-39 group. So it is perhaps 50x as deadly for one group (old people) as for some other group (young people). That’s a REALLY big spread. Likewise there are other factors which change the risk of the disease markedly. Hanks had some of these risk factors (moderate age risk, diabetes) but not others (no overweight, probably in good physical condition for his age, no known respiratory diseases, etc.) plus there is an element of randomness, how big of a viral load you received initially, etc.

    My brother in law, who (being retired) received no career enhancing benefits from his disease, is older than Hanks (70) and also has diabetes and nevertheless he experienced only moderately bad symptoms from his Covid – it wasn’t fun but it didn’t send him to the hospital either. We have been seeing too many news reports about the worst cases and are getting the wrong idea about this disease. It’s not a sure death sentence or even a sure ticket to the ICU even for those with the highest risk factors – even if your risk of death is 50% (maybe you are 89 and have CPD), that means that there are another 50% who DON’T die. Many of those, like Hanks, even with high risks, will have a very uneventful course. In other (rare) cases, people with seemingly low risk factors will nevertheless have a bad case or even die. That’s just the nature of disease, this disease in particular.

    • Agree: epebble
    • Replies: @Jane Plain
    You really don't know what a bunch of lying liars Hollywood types are.

    The whole thing has an aura of show biz fakery.

    Now Rita Wilson says they gave her the malaria drug. Did she say that before? It's all in the news, so she took it.

    It's a fraud. Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson were never sick, they just became "the public face" of the disease because Hollywood wanted to cash in.

    I am not a COVID denier at all. I think this is truly a pandemic, and will be with us for several more waves.
  177. 3837590

    Yeah, they eat a lot of white man’s junk and pay the price.

    • Replies: @PiltdownMan
    There are three principal components to the extraordinarily high levels of obesity observed in many societies in Polynesia. The CBERF genetic component, sociological factors that used to, historically, associate obesity and force-feeding of starch in late adolescence with high or royal status (in Samoa and Tonga), and a radical change in diet towards canned meats such as Spam, which happened in WWII and after, with inexpensive military surplus tinned food becoming widely available.
  178. @Hebrew National
    There ought to be an iSteve ocean cruise. A tour of various Caribbean islands, with emphasis on how ethnic origin and colonial history correlate with shitholocity today.

    how ethnic origin and colonial history correlate with shitholocity today

    I have heard various explanations about how this or that island was the first/last stop for the slave ships and so got all of the best/worst slaves but I’m not sure that I really buy into them, especially if you are talking only about the British ruled islands (Haiti is in a class by itself). Fundamentally, most of the islands had an economy based on sugar cane cultivation and most of the islands ended up populated mostly by Africans (if the Columbian discovery in the Caribbean was intentionally aimed at repopulating it with blacks the results could not have been any better – lots of intentional plans don’t achieve nearly as good results). The rest is mostly background noise and “just so” stories. It should also be noted that there has been a lot of movement between islands, much in just the last few decades as the tourist economy picked up in some places more than others. So while the populations remain largely black everywhere, they are not necessarily the ORIGINAL blacks or their descendants who may be far outnumbered by the newcomers.

    • Replies: @Hebrew National
    The first three principle components of Caribbean island shitholocity are race, years since acquired independence, and former colonial master. But that's just my opinion. For one of these cruises you bring along some experts. I suggest: Eric Holder, Lynn Manuel Miranda and Sammy Sosa!
  179. @keypusher
    I’m pretty sure only Boomers, and people with a vested interest in gay cinema (“homos”) have ever seen it. Maybe a few girls too?

    It came out in 1993, when the youngest boomers were hitting 29 or 31, depending on how you count. It was the 12th-highest grossing movie in the U.S. that year ($77.4 million). Movie audiences skew young, as you may know. And you think only people over 30, plus "homos" and a few girls saw it?

    I'm pretty sure you're a complete idiot. I love reading troglodytes trying to describe, in the teeth of facts and logic, how humans behave.

    Nah, Servant was just showing us how NOT gay he is. He is NOT gay at all. He is NOT INTERESTED in gay things. No homo. And he is no BOOMER either . He is proud to be a NOT gay NOT boomer NOT girl type person and would NEVER watch a movie that has ever been watched by such a person lest it rub off on him.

    • Replies: @Inquiring Mind
    Yeah, yeah, the Inner Circle of that Wales dude controlling the edits, but Wikipedia is your go-to source. Who needs to sit through the movie when you can read the summary in Wikipedia?

    The Philadelphia Story is that there is this white, gay dude (Hanks) and this black dude (not as famous an actor).

    White dude develops the AIDS stimata of those skin lesions. His law-office coworker sees that and reacts, "You are gay, and you have the gay disease, don't you" trope. Of course, back in the day, there was an ick factor being around someone with the skin lesions because if our Deep State Expert Elites weren't pushing that stupid notion "Anyone can get AIDS, it is not just a gay disease", we would say, cool, it is just a gay disease, the Hanks character has it because he is gay, I won't catch it, and I can give him a break. Stupid Deep State Expert Elites (cough, Fauci, cough).

    So gay white dude seeks out black lawyer dude to represent him in an employment discrimination suit against a pack of lawyers. So there is another trope. Not only that, but black lawyer suffers from the ick factor to be around white dude showing the AIDS lesions, and true to his blackness, does not have much regard for white dudes, especially a gay white dude and certainly a diseased gay white dude.

    But then the black lawyer dude "comes around", yet another movie trope, and begins to realize that gay white dude being shunned is just like the Black Experience, which is yet another movie trope.

    So the two team up, sue the pants off the law firm and the audience is happy, and Hanks dies a martyr's death from his AIDS in the pre-anti-retroviral drug cocktail days, the movie ends.

    The movie isn't even about gay white men, their culture, their foibles, their triumphs, their sadness per se, it is about all of the movie virtue-signaling tropes that a white gay guy dying from AIDS is just like Emmett Till. You know, it manages to scold everybody, including black people who resent gays sharing the oppressed minority spotlight.

    Casablanca was chock full of movie tropes and cliches. But Casblanca was actually a really good movie.
  180. @LondonBob
    New Zealand has large numbers of obese Maoris though.

    Anyway that New Zealand data would necessarily omit almost all asymptomatic cases, which we already know might be around fifty percent of cases. Then you have coding of deaths issues. My aunt has/had coronavirus, but she also has terminal cancer that has spread to her throat so she can't keep down much food. Cancer will kill her but she could be coded as a death with coronavirus.

    New Zealand has large numbers of obese Maoris though.

    Those lists that show either the US or Mexico atop the world obesity tables always leave out the many small island countries throughout the Pacific.

    The top 10 most obese nations are as follows:

    Nauru (Average BMI: 32.5)
    Tonga (Average BMI: 31.9)
    Samoa (Average BMI: 31.7)
    Kuwait (Average BMI: 30)
    Saint Kitts and Nevis (Average BMI: 29.7)
    Saint Lucia (Average BMI: 29.6)
    Kiribati (Average BMI: 29.6)
    Palau (Average BMI: 29.4)
    Micronesia (Average BMI: 29.4)
    Tuvalu (Average BMI: 29.3)

    https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/most-obese-countries/

    What is “obese” among Polynesians, though? Eighteen is the gateway to adulthood for humans, but is superannuated for dogs.

    The 700-lb (50-stone) Bruddah Iz would qualify by the most restrictive standard:

    • Replies: @prosa123
    Dead at age 38.
  181. @Travis
    in addition to knowing the average age of the nation or state we would need to know the obesity rate to calculate the fatality rates.

    It appears that obesity is the number one factor effecting the fatality rate after age. Recent reports indicate the obese have worse outcomes than those with lung disease or hear disease. This may be the reason Blacks are dying more than Whites , although the median age for African-Americans is 34 verse 44 for White Americans.

    One reason the death rate in California will be lower than New York is due to the different demographics. The median age in NY is 5 years older than in California. The elderly population in New York is 20% higher than California. The Black population in NY is 3 times greater than California. The Puerto Rican population in New York is 14 times greater than California, thus the mulatto population is significantly higher in NY

    We should expect the fatality rates in New York to be significantly higher than in California due to the older population in NY. Obesity is also more common in NY.

    Obesity is also more common in NY.

    It’s far worse in Philadelphia, not a Covid hotbed.

    And are you comparing the entire California Republic with New York State or New York City? You’re comparing oranges with apples if you don’t include appleknockers, whose Covid-19 rates are closer to the norm.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    What does this mean though? Compared to Philly, Queens has 50% more people and 1000% more Wuhan deaths. Does this mean Philly is somehow immune or just that it hasn't experienced the full impact of the epidemic YET?
    , @Anonymous
    Does NY have more professions where people get real close to one another?

    Do they still have stock floors where everyone is screaming and pushing against one another?
    Or is that a thing of the past?


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RLySXTIBS3c
  182. @Trinity
    Tom Who?

    Tom STANKS ! STINKS ? SHANKS ? Sorry I have to check the spelling.

    Funny thing is that the rich and famous are all “coming out” and telling us they tested positive, they are in quarantine etc , their wife has a cough, their pet parrot the sniffles and the fans and other rabble rush in with an odious “get well soon, we love you” or some other idiot comment. Then we are subjected to a regular dose of updates as to their condition.

    They want us to know “they are with us in these trying times” blah blah blah.

    The whole thing is such a lot of shit but the riff raff gobble up this rubbish. I could care less if the virus crawled into his ear and exited his anus but that is just me. I guess I am heartless huh ??

  183. @RodW

    An amusing theory, to be sure…but one I can’t address, because I am a 49-year-old straight man, and thus have never seen this film. I’m pretty sure only Boomers, and people with a vested interest in gay cinema (“homos”) have ever seen it. Maybe a few girls too?
     
    I’m a 53-year-old straight man and I saw it. I’d already grown sick and tired of what might in retrospect have been called ‘neocon’ Hollywood films stressing the heroism of attacking other countries. I decided to watch some gentle, human interest films instead. What I got was faggots and abortions and alcoholism and saintly immigrants. That’s when I gave up watching films completely. I still remember feeling sympathy with those ghastly white men making jokes about queers.

    No kidding. Make a film about Mother Teresa and you wont sell a single ticket. Make a film about two men “coming out” , kissing and buggering each other and raising a child or two in that faggot environment and its a box office sellout with Part 2, 3 and 4 in the planning stages.

    As a species it is what we have become, vile in body and vile in mind….and we are the highest on this planet. God alone knows where we will be in 50 years !

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    This reminds me, one time in the mid-1990s I had a few hours to kill so walked into a random cinema and went into a random film and saw my first ever gay kiss. Huge WTF moment. It was some sort of teen drama with mostly straight kids but also featured a gay couple doing their thing.

    I don't remember what this film was called. Does anyone have any idea what it could have been?
  184. Columbia University Medical Center has tested over 200 women who had babies in the last month or so and found that 14% tested positive for the virus. Most of them had no symptoms at all, and those who had symptoms had minor ones. They’re all fine, as are the babies.

  185. @Reg Cæsar

    New Zealand has large numbers of obese Maoris though.
     
    Those lists that show either the US or Mexico atop the world obesity tables always leave out the many small island countries throughout the Pacific.


    The top 10 most obese nations are as follows:

    Nauru (Average BMI: 32.5)
    Tonga (Average BMI: 31.9)
    Samoa (Average BMI: 31.7)
    Kuwait (Average BMI: 30)
    Saint Kitts and Nevis (Average BMI: 29.7)
    Saint Lucia (Average BMI: 29.6)
    Kiribati (Average BMI: 29.6)
    Palau (Average BMI: 29.4)
    Micronesia (Average BMI: 29.4)
    Tuvalu (Average BMI: 29.3)



    https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/most-obese-countries/
     
    What is "obese" among Polynesians, though? Eighteen is the gateway to adulthood for humans, but is superannuated for dogs.

    The 700-lb (50-stone) Bruddah Iz would qualify by the most restrictive standard:


    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=w_DKWlrA24k&t=50s

    Dead at age 38.

  186. @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    "Unfortunately, every child who goes to school is a potential superspreader"

    Let's euthanize everyone under 30 because they are immune to kung flu. Then we can rest easy.

    Signed,
    Captain Sailer and The Boomers

    No one is really immune (unless they have had it- maybe) but there are lots of symptomless carriers who may be infectious to their grandmas.

    In NYC, they have been testing pregnant females who are about to deliver and they found that 13.5% of them are positive for Wuhan Virus and completely unaware that they even have the disease while only 1.9% were positive with symptoms. In other words, the # of infected people might be 6x greater than the number of reported cases, at least among young healthy individuals. Since NY has had almost 200,000 reported cases, it may be that up to 1 million individuals have been infected, of which 10,000 (.1%) have died. Or maybe the 6 to 1 ratio is only for young females so the under-reporting is not as great for the general population.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8217215/One-sixth-pregnant-women-New-York-infected-coronavirus-small-study-reveals.html

  187. @Reg Cæsar

    Obesity is also more common in NY.
     
    It's far worse in Philadelphia, not a Covid hotbed.


    And are you comparing the entire California Republic with New York State or New York City? You're comparing oranges with apples if you don't include appleknockers, whose Covid-19 rates are closer to the norm.

    What does this mean though? Compared to Philly, Queens has 50% more people and 1000% more Wuhan deaths. Does this mean Philly is somehow immune or just that it hasn’t experienced the full impact of the epidemic YET?

  188. @Impolitic
    This paper calculates an R0 of 5.7 in pre-lockdown Wuhan.
    https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article
    Does Wuhan have a lot of celebrities?

    He is surely referring to the innitial spread of the virus in the West.

  189. Anonymous[290] • Disclaimer says:

    Tom Hanks disease… or the Gumps as the new Mumps.

  190. Anonymous[290] • Disclaimer says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    Obesity is also more common in NY.
     
    It's far worse in Philadelphia, not a Covid hotbed.


    And are you comparing the entire California Republic with New York State or New York City? You're comparing oranges with apples if you don't include appleknockers, whose Covid-19 rates are closer to the norm.

    Does NY have more professions where people get real close to one another?

    Do they still have stock floors where everyone is screaming and pushing against one another?
    Or is that a thing of the past?

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    As far as I am aware the NYSE and LME are the only places left that still have floor trading, maybe Chicago does still too and maybe one or two others.

    https://youtu.be/GZX7fIdZlgE

    Well worth visiting the LME.
  191. @Jack D
    Nah, Servant was just showing us how NOT gay he is. He is NOT gay at all. He is NOT INTERESTED in gay things. No homo. And he is no BOOMER either . He is proud to be a NOT gay NOT boomer NOT girl type person and would NEVER watch a movie that has ever been watched by such a person lest it rub off on him.

    Yeah, yeah, the Inner Circle of that Wales dude controlling the edits, but Wikipedia is your go-to source. Who needs to sit through the movie when you can read the summary in Wikipedia?

    The Philadelphia Story is that there is this white, gay dude (Hanks) and this black dude (not as famous an actor).

    White dude develops the AIDS stimata of those skin lesions. His law-office coworker sees that and reacts, “You are gay, and you have the gay disease, don’t you” trope. Of course, back in the day, there was an ick factor being around someone with the skin lesions because if our Deep State Expert Elites weren’t pushing that stupid notion “Anyone can get AIDS, it is not just a gay disease”, we would say, cool, it is just a gay disease, the Hanks character has it because he is gay, I won’t catch it, and I can give him a break. Stupid Deep State Expert Elites (cough, Fauci, cough).

    So gay white dude seeks out black lawyer dude to represent him in an employment discrimination suit against a pack of lawyers. So there is another trope. Not only that, but black lawyer suffers from the ick factor to be around white dude showing the AIDS lesions, and true to his blackness, does not have much regard for white dudes, especially a gay white dude and certainly a diseased gay white dude.

    But then the black lawyer dude “comes around”, yet another movie trope, and begins to realize that gay white dude being shunned is just like the Black Experience, which is yet another movie trope.

    So the two team up, sue the pants off the law firm and the audience is happy, and Hanks dies a martyr’s death from his AIDS in the pre-anti-retroviral drug cocktail days, the movie ends.

    The movie isn’t even about gay white men, their culture, their foibles, their triumphs, their sadness per se, it is about all of the movie virtue-signaling tropes that a white gay guy dying from AIDS is just like Emmett Till. You know, it manages to scold everybody, including black people who resent gays sharing the oppressed minority spotlight.

    Casablanca was chock full of movie tropes and cliches. But Casblanca was actually a really good movie.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    I am secure in my masculinity so I will tell you that I actually saw that movie and didn't just read about it on Wikipedia (I don't think in the theater but I must have seen it on TV at some point - it's been a long time) and lived to tell about it. Yes, it was full of Hollywood cliches - the numinous dying gay man, the warm hearted black men and so on, just as you say. I have never met such angelic people in my life (despite living in the city named in the title), nor have I met any cartoon villain law partners like in the movie either. All around me are only flawed humans and no devils or angels.

    But, despite all of that, it was very entertaining and well done. If you did not watch any movie that does NOT contain any Hollywood Cliches and which meets only approved alt.right standards of political INcorrectness, you would have a very short list of films you could watch. Perhaps Birth of a Nation and Triumph of the Will and that's about it. If you are not weak minded, then watching such propaganda will not turn you homo or anything like that. You can recognize it as slick propaganda and still be entertained. I have to tell you that the Jud Süß is actually a pretty good movie, by the same standard.
    , @Jane Plain
    The Philadelphia Story is a 1938 Golden Age movie w/Katharine Hepburn, Cary Grant & Jimmy Stewart.

    Philadelphia is the movie w/Hanks and Banderas.

    Truly a Golden Age it was!
    , @Marquandian Hero
    So was "The Philadelphia Story" (1940, Cary Grant, Katherine Hepburn, Jimmy Stewart). You mean "Philadelphia" (Tom Hanks). Normally I wouldn't be a pedant, but the name confusion here effectively casts aspersions on a golden age classic.
  192. @Anonymous

    She is an unemployed single mother, nobody’s elite, but she’s working on it...
     
    What is she working on?

    Becoming an elite, no doubt. That’s why people go to California, isn’t it?

    • Replies: @jb
    Yes, exactly. (The conference itself involved something called Somatic Psychology).
  193. @Inquiring Mind
    Yeah, yeah, the Inner Circle of that Wales dude controlling the edits, but Wikipedia is your go-to source. Who needs to sit through the movie when you can read the summary in Wikipedia?

    The Philadelphia Story is that there is this white, gay dude (Hanks) and this black dude (not as famous an actor).

    White dude develops the AIDS stimata of those skin lesions. His law-office coworker sees that and reacts, "You are gay, and you have the gay disease, don't you" trope. Of course, back in the day, there was an ick factor being around someone with the skin lesions because if our Deep State Expert Elites weren't pushing that stupid notion "Anyone can get AIDS, it is not just a gay disease", we would say, cool, it is just a gay disease, the Hanks character has it because he is gay, I won't catch it, and I can give him a break. Stupid Deep State Expert Elites (cough, Fauci, cough).

    So gay white dude seeks out black lawyer dude to represent him in an employment discrimination suit against a pack of lawyers. So there is another trope. Not only that, but black lawyer suffers from the ick factor to be around white dude showing the AIDS lesions, and true to his blackness, does not have much regard for white dudes, especially a gay white dude and certainly a diseased gay white dude.

    But then the black lawyer dude "comes around", yet another movie trope, and begins to realize that gay white dude being shunned is just like the Black Experience, which is yet another movie trope.

    So the two team up, sue the pants off the law firm and the audience is happy, and Hanks dies a martyr's death from his AIDS in the pre-anti-retroviral drug cocktail days, the movie ends.

    The movie isn't even about gay white men, their culture, their foibles, their triumphs, their sadness per se, it is about all of the movie virtue-signaling tropes that a white gay guy dying from AIDS is just like Emmett Till. You know, it manages to scold everybody, including black people who resent gays sharing the oppressed minority spotlight.

    Casablanca was chock full of movie tropes and cliches. But Casblanca was actually a really good movie.

    I am secure in my masculinity so I will tell you that I actually saw that movie and didn’t just read about it on Wikipedia (I don’t think in the theater but I must have seen it on TV at some point – it’s been a long time) and lived to tell about it. Yes, it was full of Hollywood cliches – the numinous dying gay man, the warm hearted black men and so on, just as you say. I have never met such angelic people in my life (despite living in the city named in the title), nor have I met any cartoon villain law partners like in the movie either. All around me are only flawed humans and no devils or angels.

    But, despite all of that, it was very entertaining and well done. If you did not watch any movie that does NOT contain any Hollywood Cliches and which meets only approved alt.right standards of political INcorrectness, you would have a very short list of films you could watch. Perhaps Birth of a Nation and Triumph of the Will and that’s about it. If you are not weak minded, then watching such propaganda will not turn you homo or anything like that. You can recognize it as slick propaganda and still be entertained. I have to tell you that the Jud Süß is actually a pretty good movie, by the same standard.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    That's nothing. I saw the queerest movie (excepting only actual homo porn) ever made, the indie release The Fluffer, in a theater in Chelsea, which must be one of the gayer parts of Manhattan. I had to be the only straight male in the joint. There were a few ostensible females, whether real girls or trannies who were at least competent at getting away with it, and the rest were flamingly gay males. (I did not see any obvious drag queens per se.) They would hoot and holler at particularly prurient lines as blacks do at particularly blackity lines, it was amusing. About the only scenes I just couldn't take were the ones where the gays were exhibiting PDAs, which were not pornographic, just (to a heterosexual male) disgusting.

    I saw this movie because my pal Debbie Harry was in it. She actually did a pretty good job, although I don't know if it was such a great idea. It certainly was not nearly as bad as what Chloe Sevigny did in The Brown Bunny. That ruined her career.
  194. @reiner Tor
    I totally agree. We will know with a lot more certainty soon enough, one way or the other, while present data can only be seen as preliminary. But I usually like being ahead of the curve, and I think the current data is already good enough to tell us which way to bet - it's not yet certain, but we can set our priors so that we could have the highest probability of predicting the eventual data. So the below is just to show my thinking (which may change over time as new data is coming online).

    I think one point is that people (including myself until very recently) don't take into account is how long this disease can last, including in fatal cases. As a result, over the weeks, as the epidemic is stopped, mortality rates will be going up - no new cases, but some of the old cases keep dying. This is to be expected in Iceland - I'd expect their mortality rate to reach 1%, though I can certainly see grounds for optimism, with the relatively few people in ICU and the majority of cases already resolved. But there have been a few such instances when I believed some grounds for optimism, only to be crushed by mortality rates slowly creeping up.

    One obvious instance was the early foreign cases, like the 14 cases in Bavaria in January, not one of which were serious. So it was thought that the Chinese data was missing tons of mild cases. It still hangs in the balance, but after the past couple months I'm inclined to dismiss it as noise. (No one from a very small sample of young people not dying - it's perfectly consistent with the Chinese data.)

    Taiwan only has a mortality rate of 1.6%, but now I can see that their sample is very small (a couple more deaths would push it above 2%), and the vast majority (something like two thirds) of their cases are still active. I don't think it could meaningfully prove anything, and I'd expect their mortality to eventually reach 2% as well.

    Regarding South Korea, it was originally thought to be one of the most optimistic data points, with extensive testing and a low mortality (IFR) of just around 0.5%, but by now it's creeped up above 2%.

    So Iceland is the only high quality data set pointing to an IFR of <1%, but it's a relatively small sample (how many random samples of 1711 people would show less than 17 deaths if the IFR would prove to be 2% in most countries with a good and not overwhelmed healthcare system and a mean age of 45?), and as all of us (including the Icelandic commenter) acknowledge, a somewhat unusual age distribution. To the latter point, I just checked, Iceland's median age is 36.5 years, which is one of the lowest in the first world, and almost a decade younger than Germany's or Italy's corresponding data. So we'd already expect a significantly lower IFR in Iceland due to the age distribution alone. This reinforces my perception that the 2% IFR is a good estimate for countries with roughly 45 years of median age. However, for countries with a median age of below 40 (like the US with 38 years) the IFR could be lower, maybe 1.5% (and with a Scandinavian social distancing even in the absence of an epidemic and disciplined population it might be 1% only), at least that's my guesstimate right now. But all this presumes a good and functioning healthcare system which is not overwhelmed. (I.e. a first world healthcare system with a lockdown - and you'd probably need universal health insurance coverage as well.)

    I hope reading the above wasn't a total waste of time.

    a good and functioning healthcare system which is not overwhelmed

    This is really the core issue now.

    It’s obvious we aren’t dealing with something MERS-scale in fatality, even without preventive measures. So our goal now should be preventing chaos and panic, not preventing deaths or infections per se. I.e., focus on preventing conversion to severity.

    People like you (no criticism intended) should shift your focus over from analyzing death rates to teasing out data to try to figure out things, like, for example, whether or not initial infective dose is important in severity.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor

    So our goal now should be preventing chaos and panic, not preventing deaths or infections per se.
     
    Why not? Why can't we pursue both?

    You guys don't seem to realize how much chaos and destruction (including economic destruction) is coming from the virus itself. Also, preventing the serious cases might not be possible (or not within the next few months). You also don't seem to realize how long it would take for the epidemic to reach its natural conclusion (infecting almost everyone to reach "herd immunity") - it would take several months. (Compare that to 2.5 months needed in Wuhan to completely eradicate the virus.) You don't seem to realize how much human capital there is in less than perfectly healthy individuals (aged over 50, not that the virus couldn't kill people under 30), like engineers and scientists.

    The idea that some people should just drop dead, such is life, is a repulsive third world idea. The people saying this have a very third world mentality. "Sure, yeah, by not doing much to prevent infection, some old people die, but old people have always died. Yeah, some young people also die, but such is life, some get unlucky. Yeah, I know, in developed first world countries they just test everyone and if necessary close down entire cities, but here in Africa that would be impossible. So why not think about how to accelerate the epidemic so that it's over quicker?"

    Sorry to say, but that's what you guys sound like. Wuhan showed that even an out of control outbreak could be stopped. South Korea (and Taiwan) showed how to prevent large-scale outbreaks, or nip them in the bud early enough without shutting down your economy. (But China shows that even shutting down part of your economy should be possible for a couple months.) But these just seem to require too much competence, so you instinctively go for the African solution, just letting the epidemic run its course, while trying to prevent panic. (You won't prevent it, at the end of the day, because people will believe you as much as Africans believe their own governments.)


    should shift your focus over from analyzing death rates
     
    I will stop analyzing death rates the moment people stop writing that iT'S jUSt THe fLU. The mortality rate seems closer to the Spanish flu, or at least, say, half that of the Spanish flu, depending on circumstances.

    whether or not initial infective dose is important in severity
     
    That's not a very original idea, but of course it's being studied. It's very difficult to find out, of course, because it's impossible to measure the initial dose. But it would seem that while it could play a role, it's either possible to catch a large dose from an asymptomatic carrier, or else to get seriously ill from a small dose only. Either way, asymptomatic carriers can infect someone who will fall seriously ill with pneumonia and eventually die, there have been many such cases.
  195. @Hebrew National
    There ought to be an iSteve ocean cruise. A tour of various Caribbean islands, with emphasis on how ethnic origin and colonial history correlate with shitholocity today.

    There ought to be an iSteve ocean cruise.

    Yes, and Steve can give talks from his cabin cupboard via video link.

  196. Anonymous[696] • Disclaimer says:
    @The Grim Joker
    No kidding. Make a film about Mother Teresa and you wont sell a single ticket. Make a film about two men "coming out" , kissing and buggering each other and raising a child or two in that faggot environment and its a box office sellout with Part 2, 3 and 4 in the planning stages.

    As a species it is what we have become, vile in body and vile in mind....and we are the highest on this planet. God alone knows where we will be in 50 years !

    This reminds me, one time in the mid-1990s I had a few hours to kill so walked into a random cinema and went into a random film and saw my first ever gay kiss. Huge WTF moment. It was some sort of teen drama with mostly straight kids but also featured a gay couple doing their thing.

    I don’t remember what this film was called. Does anyone have any idea what it could have been?

    • Replies: @The Grim Joker
    Chicks with Dicks ? Salt and Pepper Poles ? Homo Hoes ? Take your pick ! The whole thing is so repulsive but it makes money. I had an Irish friend who worked in NYC Narco . The poor fellow must have been living in a bubble. Apparently he had to meet an informer and the only safe spot was a theatre with fag features. He went beet red telling his friends what he saw on the big screen.

    When my boys were young I never let them out of my sight, never permitted them to sleep over anywhere or at anyone's house or allowed them to serve in Church. You dont know who is who these days.

    We are evolving to a higher plane LOL. What with so many people into the gay life one has to be also careful with comments especially at work less the boss happen to be a back door boy wearing a wedding band in which case you will be unemployed. The homo genie was let out of the bottle and we have what we have !
  197. @Jack D
    It's good to be skeptical but only up to a point. Tom Hanks doesn't need any help with his career and if he did, it's not at all clear that announcing that he had Covid was really a career enhancing move.

    I saw Hank's wife on one of the morning shows today and she described their case and said that she had it worse than he did.

    Covid is a strange disease - for reasons that are not fully understood (yet) it affects some people MUCH worse than others. In the case of age, this is abundantly clear - in NY for example, 38% of the dead are over 80 and 2% of the dead are age 0 to 39, despite there being several times more people in the 0-39 group. So it is perhaps 50x as deadly for one group (old people) as for some other group (young people). That's a REALLY big spread. Likewise there are other factors which change the risk of the disease markedly. Hanks had some of these risk factors (moderate age risk, diabetes) but not others (no overweight, probably in good physical condition for his age, no known respiratory diseases, etc.) plus there is an element of randomness, how big of a viral load you received initially, etc.

    My brother in law, who (being retired) received no career enhancing benefits from his disease, is older than Hanks (70) and also has diabetes and nevertheless he experienced only moderately bad symptoms from his Covid - it wasn't fun but it didn't send him to the hospital either. We have been seeing too many news reports about the worst cases and are getting the wrong idea about this disease. It's not a sure death sentence or even a sure ticket to the ICU even for those with the highest risk factors - even if your risk of death is 50% (maybe you are 89 and have CPD), that means that there are another 50% who DON'T die. Many of those, like Hanks, even with high risks, will have a very uneventful course. In other (rare) cases, people with seemingly low risk factors will nevertheless have a bad case or even die. That's just the nature of disease, this disease in particular.

    You really don’t know what a bunch of lying liars Hollywood types are.

    The whole thing has an aura of show biz fakery.

    Now Rita Wilson says they gave her the malaria drug. Did she say that before? It’s all in the news, so she took it.

    It’s a fraud. Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson were never sick, they just became “the public face” of the disease because Hollywood wanted to cash in.

    I am not a COVID denier at all. I think this is truly a pandemic, and will be with us for several more waves.

    • Replies: @RodW
    I had the same suspicion until Japanese comedian Shimura Ken died of it a couple of weeks ago and English comedian Tim Brooke-Taylor died of it days ago. That put a dent in my skepticism. I assume Coronavirus was a contributory factor in their deaths at least.
  198. @Inquiring Mind
    Yeah, yeah, the Inner Circle of that Wales dude controlling the edits, but Wikipedia is your go-to source. Who needs to sit through the movie when you can read the summary in Wikipedia?

    The Philadelphia Story is that there is this white, gay dude (Hanks) and this black dude (not as famous an actor).

    White dude develops the AIDS stimata of those skin lesions. His law-office coworker sees that and reacts, "You are gay, and you have the gay disease, don't you" trope. Of course, back in the day, there was an ick factor being around someone with the skin lesions because if our Deep State Expert Elites weren't pushing that stupid notion "Anyone can get AIDS, it is not just a gay disease", we would say, cool, it is just a gay disease, the Hanks character has it because he is gay, I won't catch it, and I can give him a break. Stupid Deep State Expert Elites (cough, Fauci, cough).

    So gay white dude seeks out black lawyer dude to represent him in an employment discrimination suit against a pack of lawyers. So there is another trope. Not only that, but black lawyer suffers from the ick factor to be around white dude showing the AIDS lesions, and true to his blackness, does not have much regard for white dudes, especially a gay white dude and certainly a diseased gay white dude.

    But then the black lawyer dude "comes around", yet another movie trope, and begins to realize that gay white dude being shunned is just like the Black Experience, which is yet another movie trope.

    So the two team up, sue the pants off the law firm and the audience is happy, and Hanks dies a martyr's death from his AIDS in the pre-anti-retroviral drug cocktail days, the movie ends.

    The movie isn't even about gay white men, their culture, their foibles, their triumphs, their sadness per se, it is about all of the movie virtue-signaling tropes that a white gay guy dying from AIDS is just like Emmett Till. You know, it manages to scold everybody, including black people who resent gays sharing the oppressed minority spotlight.

    Casablanca was chock full of movie tropes and cliches. But Casblanca was actually a really good movie.

    The Philadelphia Story is a 1938 Golden Age movie w/Katharine Hepburn, Cary Grant & Jimmy Stewart.

    Philadelphia is the movie w/Hanks and Banderas.

    Truly a Golden Age it was!

  199. @RodW

    An amusing theory, to be sure…but one I can’t address, because I am a 49-year-old straight man, and thus have never seen this film. I’m pretty sure only Boomers, and people with a vested interest in gay cinema (“homos”) have ever seen it. Maybe a few girls too?
     
    I’m a 53-year-old straight man and I saw it. I’d already grown sick and tired of what might in retrospect have been called ‘neocon’ Hollywood films stressing the heroism of attacking other countries. I decided to watch some gentle, human interest films instead. What I got was faggots and abortions and alcoholism and saintly immigrants. That’s when I gave up watching films completely. I still remember feeling sympathy with those ghastly white men making jokes about queers.

    I’m a 53-year-old straight man and I saw it. I’d already grown sick and tired of what might in retrospect have been called ‘neocon’ Hollywood films stressing the heroism of attacking other countries. I decided to watch some gentle, human interest films instead. What I got was faggots and abortions and alcoholism and saintly immigrants. That’s when I gave up watching films completely.

    I feel like there are a lot of other films which fall outside that rather limited binary you’ve presented, but I can understand why you wouldn’t want to watch the bulk of the films you’ve alluded to.

  200. @keypusher
    I’m pretty sure only Boomers, and people with a vested interest in gay cinema (“homos”) have ever seen it. Maybe a few girls too?

    It came out in 1993, when the youngest boomers were hitting 29 or 31, depending on how you count. It was the 12th-highest grossing movie in the U.S. that year ($77.4 million). Movie audiences skew young, as you may know. And you think only people over 30, plus "homos" and a few girls saw it?

    I'm pretty sure you're a complete idiot. I love reading troglodytes trying to describe, in the teeth of facts and logic, how humans behave.

    It came out in 1993, when the youngest boomers were hitting 29 or 31, depending on how you count. It was the 12th-highest grossing movie in the U.S. that year ($77.4 million). Movie audiences skew young, as you may know. And you think only people over 30, plus “homos” and a few girls saw it?

    I can’t help but notice you didn’t indicate you had seen it, however. Which I think counts for a lot more than your boring speculation that people in their teens & early 20 were flocking to this film in 1994* (I was there, and I can assure you we were not).

    *the year this film was actually released

    • Replies: @Keypusher
    I saw it. It was pretty good. And yeah, you’re a fucking idiot.
  201. Steve,

    Strangely, since you are a film fan and recently brought it up again, you failed to reference the movie Contagion.

    I never considered before your point that the healthcare establishment assumes things will come from the fringes of society, but it seems basically true. Therefore it’s interesting that Contagion was a movie about a Tom Hanks Disease and not a movie about racism. I wonder how that came about–did it arise unconsciously out of an attempt to write a “realistic” portrayal of spread from Asia? Or was it the result of a conscious decision to make a movie that showed middle and upper-middle class people getting sick? Or was the writer consciously trying to shift the focus away from the fringe elements in order to focus on the technical aspects of CDC boardroom meetings, etc?

    Whatever the case, Contagion does a good job of showing how a Tom Hanks Disease spreads–popular people get promoted to positions where they fly overseas, and popular people can be social butterflies at parties, and popular people are more likely to have assignations, etc

    I think I would take issue, however, with the idea that there is anything new, different, or particularly interesting about a Tom Hanks Disease. If you look at, for example, Magic Johnson or Charlie Sheen, you can see how popular people are almost inevitably going to attract disease. It’s a combination of shear numbers game and people’s willingness to drop barriers to social interaction with popular people.

    For example, imagine Tom Hanks got sick from a doorman at a hotel he was staying at. The doorman opens the door for 100s of people every day but stands away from and doesn’t talk to them, and those people don’t get sick. But when Tom Hanks comes by, maybe he makes an effort to talk to him, to shake his hand, or to have their photo taken together. Auto-social-distancing switched off, and bam! Infected Hanks!

    Also, the rich and famous probably have more access to unusual or new circumstances that may not be vetted well (that’s how Isaac Asimov got AIDS). In fact, the only the rich and famous have going for them in the susceptibility game is that they probably have stronger immune systems than average.

    However, notice that in the above scenario, although Tom Hanks got sick more readily than unknown people, the disease still came from the doorman, just as Gwyneth Paltrow, despite being Patient Zero, contracted the disease from poor minority kitchen staff. As inevitable as the susceptibility of the famous is the fact that transmissible pandemics are going to originate from the poor. The only way I could see that not happening is if, for example, Richard Branson caught a novel pathogen from an aquatic mammal while skin-diving at his private island.

    So, every disease is a Tom Hanks Disease and also not a Tom Hanks Disease. My guess is that Hollywood people are more likely to get the flu each year but it’s just unremarkable and unstudied, and, if you made social networks of Ebola patients in Africa, you’d find villagers with high popularity/status getting sick. And if we could erase AIDS from history and re-introduce it now minus our history of drug development and public info campaigns, you’d end up with AIDS-riddled Anderson Cooper etc pretty quickly.

    And in fact, if you look at the actors and sportsmen on the Wikipedia List of HIV+…
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_HIV-positive_people
    …you see lots of dates of death in the late 1980s and early 1990s, indicating that the lack of AIDS in Hollywood and in sports today has more to do with public health campaigns and drugs than with the character of disease. Yes, HIV didn’t spread to the rest of the population, but that was because of mode of transmission, not anything to do with social networks. If HIV were a respiratory disease, it would probably be killing off Hollywood faster than small town America.

    And… I just thought to check this, so I could avoided writing all of the above…

    The flu is a Tom Hanks Disease too:

    https://www.eonline.com/news/379680/why-jennifer-lawrence-hugh-jackman-and-anne-hathaway-got-the-flu-and-you-didn-t

  202. @jon

    any underlying conditions?
     
    Well ...
    https://thenypost.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/anthony-causi-10.jpg
    https://cdnph.upi.com/sv/ph/og/upi/1391586785684/2020/1/c987ae74ae17a76b592e59a703c6bac3/v1.5/Sports-photographer-Anthony-Causi-dies-at-48-after-contracting-coronavirus.jpg
    https://fashionmodelsecret.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/ccelebritiesKH-COMPOSITE-ANTHONY-CAUSI.jpg

    I just read obesity (aka “metabolic syndrome”) is the number one factor associated with hospitalizations. I believe this is why the US will have a higher death rate than many other countries. Putting aside our usual iSteve discussions and disagreements for the moment, I think we can all agree that we’re all fat. Our White people are fat, our Black people are fat and even our Asians are getting fat. I live in Seattle, and even many of the other White yuppie dads at our school and daycare are fat. It’s not just the White People of Walmart. *

    A second thing to note about reports of young people dying is that they’re like shark bite stories – rare exceptions that make headlines because of their sensational nature. How many millions of young people have been exposed to Coronavirus (recall Iceland found half of all infected are completely asymptomatic) and how many truly healthy young people have died. That is young people without metabolic syndrome, immune disorders etc. I would bet the odds of a healthy young person dying of Coronavirus aren’t too different from the odds of a young person dying in a car accident on a long road trip. It’s a risk, but an acceptable risk that we have no problem taking in other areas of life.

    *As I’ve noted on here before, many in my family are fat and I was a chubby kid, but I’ve found that intermittent fasting combined with avoiding high glycemic foods (bread, pasta, rice, potatoes, dessert) does the trick. I gained a lot of weight after our second was born, but after adopting the aforementioned dietary restrictions I’ve been under 20% body fat for a couple years now.

  203. Anonymous[427] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jack D
    I am secure in my masculinity so I will tell you that I actually saw that movie and didn't just read about it on Wikipedia (I don't think in the theater but I must have seen it on TV at some point - it's been a long time) and lived to tell about it. Yes, it was full of Hollywood cliches - the numinous dying gay man, the warm hearted black men and so on, just as you say. I have never met such angelic people in my life (despite living in the city named in the title), nor have I met any cartoon villain law partners like in the movie either. All around me are only flawed humans and no devils or angels.

    But, despite all of that, it was very entertaining and well done. If you did not watch any movie that does NOT contain any Hollywood Cliches and which meets only approved alt.right standards of political INcorrectness, you would have a very short list of films you could watch. Perhaps Birth of a Nation and Triumph of the Will and that's about it. If you are not weak minded, then watching such propaganda will not turn you homo or anything like that. You can recognize it as slick propaganda and still be entertained. I have to tell you that the Jud Süß is actually a pretty good movie, by the same standard.

    That’s nothing. I saw the queerest movie (excepting only actual homo porn) ever made, the indie release The Fluffer, in a theater in Chelsea, which must be one of the gayer parts of Manhattan. I had to be the only straight male in the joint. There were a few ostensible females, whether real girls or trannies who were at least competent at getting away with it, and the rest were flamingly gay males. (I did not see any obvious drag queens per se.) They would hoot and holler at particularly prurient lines as blacks do at particularly blackity lines, it was amusing. About the only scenes I just couldn’t take were the ones where the gays were exhibiting PDAs, which were not pornographic, just (to a heterosexual male) disgusting.

    I saw this movie because my pal Debbie Harry was in it. She actually did a pretty good job, although I don’t know if it was such a great idea. It certainly was not nearly as bad as what Chloe Sevigny did in The Brown Bunny. That ruined her career.

  204. @epebble
    George Stephanopoulos has tested +ve, but is completely asymptomatic. His wife, though, says she has never been sicker.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/13/media/george-stephanopoulos-coronavirus/index.html

    BTW, a sailor on TR has died. Probably fitness in the top 0.1% of population.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/13/politics/theodore-roosevelt-sailor-coronavirus/index.html

    Goodness. Haven’t met a sailor lately, have you? A marine friend of mine says sailors and air men are fatter than the general population.

  205. @Inquiring Mind
    Yeah, yeah, the Inner Circle of that Wales dude controlling the edits, but Wikipedia is your go-to source. Who needs to sit through the movie when you can read the summary in Wikipedia?

    The Philadelphia Story is that there is this white, gay dude (Hanks) and this black dude (not as famous an actor).

    White dude develops the AIDS stimata of those skin lesions. His law-office coworker sees that and reacts, "You are gay, and you have the gay disease, don't you" trope. Of course, back in the day, there was an ick factor being around someone with the skin lesions because if our Deep State Expert Elites weren't pushing that stupid notion "Anyone can get AIDS, it is not just a gay disease", we would say, cool, it is just a gay disease, the Hanks character has it because he is gay, I won't catch it, and I can give him a break. Stupid Deep State Expert Elites (cough, Fauci, cough).

    So gay white dude seeks out black lawyer dude to represent him in an employment discrimination suit against a pack of lawyers. So there is another trope. Not only that, but black lawyer suffers from the ick factor to be around white dude showing the AIDS lesions, and true to his blackness, does not have much regard for white dudes, especially a gay white dude and certainly a diseased gay white dude.

    But then the black lawyer dude "comes around", yet another movie trope, and begins to realize that gay white dude being shunned is just like the Black Experience, which is yet another movie trope.

    So the two team up, sue the pants off the law firm and the audience is happy, and Hanks dies a martyr's death from his AIDS in the pre-anti-retroviral drug cocktail days, the movie ends.

    The movie isn't even about gay white men, their culture, their foibles, their triumphs, their sadness per se, it is about all of the movie virtue-signaling tropes that a white gay guy dying from AIDS is just like Emmett Till. You know, it manages to scold everybody, including black people who resent gays sharing the oppressed minority spotlight.

    Casablanca was chock full of movie tropes and cliches. But Casblanca was actually a really good movie.

    So was “The Philadelphia Story” (1940, Cary Grant, Katherine Hepburn, Jimmy Stewart). You mean “Philadelphia” (Tom Hanks). Normally I wouldn’t be a pedant, but the name confusion here effectively casts aspersions on a golden age classic.

  206. Virus gets stranger.

    https://nypost.com/2020/04/14/foot-sores-could-be-an-early-sign-of-coronavirus-experts-say/

    Sores on the toes that look like a spider bite on some Spanish cases, including a 13 year old boy whose mother and sister both were sick with COVID-19.

  207. @Steve Sailer
    That poor Georgia janitor's funeral was way back on February 29, which was only a week after Wall Street finally noticed the coronavirus. My last social engagement was playing golf on March 5, after which I canceled going to see Norm MacDonald on March 7 and meeting with a reader on March 8. But the janitor's funeral was well before even worry-warts like me were fully locked down.

    Never cancel going to see Norm.

  208. https://scitechdaily.com/evidence-of-stray-dogs-as-possible-origin-of-covid-19-pandemic/

    • Replies: @HA
    "Study points to evidence of stray dogs as possible origin of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic"

    And yet, we have the following:

    Coronavirus can infect cats — dogs, not so much

    , @AnonAnon
    Yes, it’s the dogs, not that level 4 bio research lab in Wuhan, the only level 4 BSL research lab in China, that just happened to be doing coronavirus research.


    https://twitter.com/joshrogin/status/1250014680816537601?s=21
  209. • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    It seems to be spread most by fun.
    , @vhrm

    Just the flu, bro. Just the flu.
     
    The 3 who died were 94, 86 and 84. And the 86yo had cancer and both the 86 and 84 yo had atherosclerosis (though unknown how bad)

    If they had died of the flu it would not have been a shock either.

    The other five recovered, from the sounds of it.

    It is unfortunate that they died of this, but it doesn't change the narrative at all, imo.

    Nor does it justify the shelter-in-place or shutting down things other than the largest gatherings and nightclubs.

  210. @anon
    Just the flu, bro. Just the flu.

    https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-dying-together-coronavirus-20200414-atv34aun7fhf7atucntor63jee-story.html#rt=chartbeat-flt

    It seems to be spread most by fun.

    • Replies: @AnonAnon

    It seems to be spread most by fun.
     
    Valid theory. I know three C-suite types who criss cross the globe for work, travel(ed) to Asia/Europe monthly, travel so much they are members of the secret top tier United Global Services mileage program, two of whom left Singapore in late January two days before it was reported that it spread at a business meeting at the Grand Hyatt Singapore and they didn’t catch it. Granted, they’re all distance runners who are pretty fit fifty-somethings and don’t have substance abuse issues, unlike the typical celebrity (Hanks is rumored to be an alcoholic on the gossip sites), but since one of them is my sibling I’ve had my eye on coronavirus news since late-January, deathly afraid they were going to catch it on their travels.
  211. @MEH 0910
    https://scitechdaily.com/evidence-of-stray-dogs-as-possible-origin-of-covid-19-pandemic/

    https://twitter.com/medical_xpress/status/1250166946735304705

    “Study points to evidence of stray dogs as possible origin of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic”

    And yet, we have the following:

    Coronavirus can infect cats — dogs, not so much

  212. @Polynikes
    Where you, and Ron, and others are off the mark is in calculating IFR with test results cases. If you want to compare IFR to other viruses, and I assume you do, then you have to calculate them the same.

    There are probably less than a few thousand flu (type A) cases confirmed by test every year. (One article I read about Canada put it at under a thousand for that country). Yet we use the 30,000 to 50,000 case number to calculate the IFR.

    So when you see those German scientists or Ionnadis trying to come up with an accurate IFR to compare to other things, they are extrapolating. You can't just use test confirmed cases with test confirmed deaths. The test confirmed deaths will be low (although with current practices, how low is up for debate). Test confirmed cases will be really low. That's for numerous reasons: lack of tests, testing only symptomatic people, people who had it and didn't know it, etc...

    So others, in an effort to get comparable numbers to what we generally use, are using serology studies or "closed" cases (Princess cruise ship) to take better known numbers and extrapolate to get the IFR. It drops the rate down, but is a much better comparison if you want to compare to something like the regular flu, since they are both calculated the same.

    Well, if the South Koreans (who were literally catching everyone and their dog who got into contact with anyone testing positive) didn’t catch basically all asymptomatic cases, then how is it possible that those uncaught asymptomatic cases didn’t infect others, who in turn infected still others, etc., leading eventually to pneumonia cases – because that’s how this virus was noticed in the first place, wasn’t it? People were just getting unusual and unusually severe pneumonia. So how do you explain that A) pneumonia cases were clustering in a few places, and B) each one of those were the result of a known chain of infection, if you believe that tons of asymptomatic cases were uncaught by the South Koreans?

    It just doesn’t make sense. I could’ve asked the same question about Lombardy (and especially specific localities in Lombardy like Bergamo or Castiglione d’Adda. The latter had a 1.3% mortality rate over a few weeks until March 21 (so the eventual mortality rate should probably be over 2%, given how many deaths occur a month or more after getting infected), that is, 1.3% of the population.

  213. @Chrisnonymous

    a good and functioning healthcare system which is not overwhelmed
     
    This is really the core issue now.

    It's obvious we aren't dealing with something MERS-scale in fatality, even without preventive measures. So our goal now should be preventing chaos and panic, not preventing deaths or infections per se. I.e., focus on preventing conversion to severity.

    People like you (no criticism intended) should shift your focus over from analyzing death rates to teasing out data to try to figure out things, like, for example, whether or not initial infective dose is important in severity.

    So our goal now should be preventing chaos and panic, not preventing deaths or infections per se.

    Why not? Why can’t we pursue both?

    You guys don’t seem to realize how much chaos and destruction (including economic destruction) is coming from the virus itself. Also, preventing the serious cases might not be possible (or not within the next few months). You also don’t seem to realize how long it would take for the epidemic to reach its natural conclusion (infecting almost everyone to reach “herd immunity”) – it would take several months. (Compare that to 2.5 months needed in Wuhan to completely eradicate the virus.) You don’t seem to realize how much human capital there is in less than perfectly healthy individuals (aged over 50, not that the virus couldn’t kill people under 30), like engineers and scientists.

    The idea that some people should just drop dead, such is life, is a repulsive third world idea. The people saying this have a very third world mentality. “Sure, yeah, by not doing much to prevent infection, some old people die, but old people have always died. Yeah, some young people also die, but such is life, some get unlucky. Yeah, I know, in developed first world countries they just test everyone and if necessary close down entire cities, but here in Africa that would be impossible. So why not think about how to accelerate the epidemic so that it’s over quicker?”

    Sorry to say, but that’s what you guys sound like. Wuhan showed that even an out of control outbreak could be stopped. South Korea (and Taiwan) showed how to prevent large-scale outbreaks, or nip them in the bud early enough without shutting down your economy. (But China shows that even shutting down part of your economy should be possible for a couple months.) But these just seem to require too much competence, so you instinctively go for the African solution, just letting the epidemic run its course, while trying to prevent panic. (You won’t prevent it, at the end of the day, because people will believe you as much as Africans believe their own governments.)

    should shift your focus over from analyzing death rates

    I will stop analyzing death rates the moment people stop writing that iT’S jUSt THe fLU. The mortality rate seems closer to the Spanish flu, or at least, say, half that of the Spanish flu, depending on circumstances.

    whether or not initial infective dose is important in severity

    That’s not a very original idea, but of course it’s being studied. It’s very difficult to find out, of course, because it’s impossible to measure the initial dose. But it would seem that while it could play a role, it’s either possible to catch a large dose from an asymptomatic carrier, or else to get seriously ill from a small dose only. Either way, asymptomatic carriers can infect someone who will fall seriously ill with pneumonia and eventually die, there have been many such cases.

    • Replies: @vhrm

    You also don’t seem to realize how long it would take for the epidemic to reach its natural conclusion (infecting almost everyone to reach “herd immunity”) – it would take several months. (Compare that to 2.5 months needed in Wuhan to completely eradicate the virus.)
     
    Except that we don't actually know exactly what happened in Wuhan. They didn't eradicate it since they still have a few new cases that they're admitting to. There may be many more that they're not admitting to.

    We also don't really know how many cases they've had. At the very least we know for the main run off the disease they weren't reporting asymptomatic people even when they tested positive. So that's a multiple of 2 or more right off the bat in addition to all the people they just didn't test.

    It's possible they've already reached significant herd immunity in Wuhan like some towns in Northern Italy seen to have achieved.

    So it's not over in China or Korea or anywhere else yet.

    We're basically all on the UK herd immunity plan anyway wherever we admit it to ourselves or not.

    , @Chrisnonymous
    Right now, everything we (as in, you and I) are doing on iSteve and other blogs and forums is just replicating what is being done by academics and gov't scientists. But unlike their researches, which will influence policy and be decisive pronouncements on the pandemic, our discussions are really doing nothing except contributing to the emotional state and political perspectives of the general public.

    At this point, it seems pretty obvious that fatality is going to be in the 1.0% range, plus or minus, and, importantly, that the number isn't going to get resolved by what we post. Even without any preventive measure at all, we are not looking at anything like MERS, and maybe not anything like SARS 1, either. So, debating the fatality rate is really just a stand-in for shouting at each other, "I'm really worried" and "I'm not really worried".

    I started off in the "I'm really worried" camp, but I am slowly making my over to the "I'm not really worried" camp. Partly, that's because the people who are strongly pro-worry are, like you, frequently irrational about the acceptance of death...

    The people saying this have a very third world mentality.
     
    We do accept avoidable death as a price of freedom and wealth in the FIrst World. That is simply an unassailable and well-established fact. Whether you are talking about drunk driving or influenza or diabetes, we as a society accept deaths that could be avoided.
    Often, we rationalize this as being about personal responsibility. You're dying early from heart disease secondary to diabetes? That's too bad, but you made the choice to live on Wonderbread and Coca-Cola. We'll try to help you, but we're not shutting down your supply of Wonderbread and Coca-Cola.
    Other times, we treat it like an "act of God" or "force of Nature", as when influenza takes the lives of elderly people.
    If influenza takes the life of an obese person with diabetes, how do we think about it? Usually, we don't, but if pressed, I suspect most Americans and Europeans would say Yeah, it's kind of their fault since we know how to prevent diabetes. Certainly, we're not shutting down the country for that..
    Of course, in these current times, we are also told to accept deaths for the sake of D.I.E. (ironically), for example by not cordoning off Africa for Ebola. (And I disagree with that sentiment, but I don't count intercourse with Africa as any substantial benefit to the West, whereas I count our freedom and wealth to be central to our security and identity.)
    Of course, there are people like Unz and LionOTB who are apoplectic over math, but for the most part the "I'm really worried" camp is being unrealistic about balancing death against freedom and wealth.

    Now, I am NOT arguing that this Coronavirus pandemic is "just the flu", so don't put words in my mouth. However, it is a fact that we accept deaths of both the old and the obese (yes, obesity is a risk factor for severe form of influenza as well as severe form of COVID19) from influenza every year without locking down. Yes, it's true that we spend a lot of money as a society on vaccines, which may only benefit the old, fat, and chronically ill, and that is to our credit. But we don't restrict people's freedoms and shut down the economy every year. We accept that some people are going to die. I do, Steve does, and you, reiner Tor, do as well.

    You guys don’t seem to realize how much chaos and destruction (including economic destruction) is coming from the virus itself.
     
    On the contrary, we ALL don't know how much chaos and destruction is coming from the Coronavirus itself. If people (if you) had a good measure of this, they (you) would be quoting it, but they (you) aren't. On the other hand, from the lockdown, we are seeing the stock market in real time, and we are starting to see estimates about unemployment too. From my position on the fence, it looks more like the "I'm really worried" camp has a weaker grasp on the economic situation than the "I'm not really worried" camp has grasp on the effects of the virus, which are mostly fear and death (almost all other effects being attributable to fear and/or prevention of the infection).

    Coronavirus is killing more people than the flu, but basically it is killing the same people that flu kills. You have vast majority old people, then some fat people and people with chronic illnesses, and then a smattering of what appear to be in our research random unlucky individuals. To say that these people's lives are not worth a lockdown when they die of the flu but are worth a lockdown when they die of Coronavirus is completely irrational. That is the real reason people are arguing so much over whether the death rate is 0.5% or 1.5% or 5.1%--completely arbitrary numbers that just are just stand-ins for "I'm used to this much death" and "this is more death than I'm used to".* (And, to be honest, the 1.5% camp is really just saying, "This death is right in front of me on TV!!", because nobody is really "used to" influenza deaths, because nobody thinks about them. And that doesn't usually bother anybody, including reiner Tor.)

    The GDP is not just an abstraction, and getting people back to work doesn't just help Goldman Sachs. The lockdown is doing real damage to people that is every bit as real as the real damage being caused by the virus. That is also an unassailable fact.

    Yet another unassailable fact is that the majority of people will be either not affected or not affected very much by getting the Coronavirus. That means our entire lockdown is for the small percentage of people who will develop the severe form of COVID19. Focus on that: the severe form of COVID19... If it weren't for the development of severe form of COVID19, we could all go about our lives as normal.

    So, now you have to ask yourself what is the best way of preventing the severe form of COVID19? Here are some common ideas:
    (1) stop any Coronavirus infection in order to prevent the possibility of it turning into severe COVID19 (i.e., the lockdown).
    (2) develop a vaccine
    (3) use hydroxychloroquine (HCQ)

    If we discount #3 (since HCQ's efficacy is in question), are we really just left with deciding between a lockdown and a world with a vaccine? Is there really no other option? Is it truly a crapshoot who gets the severe form (we can't identify the people)? Are there truly no behaviors we can modify in the short term to decrease our chance of converting to severe form? Are there truly no non-pharmacological interventions hospitals can use? If the answers to all these questions are "yes", COVID19 would be a very unusual disease indeed.

    Why not? Why can’t we pursue both?
     
    So, back to your original question, "why not both"? My position is that preventing the severe form of COVID19 with points #4 to infinity above (which are currently missing) is more efficient (maybe not more effective, but more efficient) and rational than our current course of action, and talking about what points #4 to infinity might be would take us away from fear and towards the normal kind of decision-making we do in society. On the level of research and policy, it is not going to be any more effective than discussing death rates, but it replaces us shouting at each other "I'm really worried" and "I'm not really worried." (And if everyone were talking about that, maybe somebody would come up with a great idea.**) On the whole, it would be an emotionally and practically more productive conversation.

    Again, I am not saying "it's just the flu, so let everyone do whatever they want", and if you characterize me that way you are dishonest. I am suggesting a complex response to the Coronavirus that includes masking, distancing, partial lockdowns broadly and total lockdowns in select locations or among select demographics, but also focuses less on transmission than on dealing with the real problem, which is the severe form of COVID19. That might include accepting slightly higher numbers of deaths among the old and obese, but also might include things like hot/cold hydrotherapy for modulating the immune response. We don't know, and we need to think about it. The important point to realize here is: MOST PEOPLE ARE NOT GETTING SICK, SO WE NEED TO KNOW WHY THE SEVERELY ILL ARE GETTING ILL AND TARGET THAT ISSUE. That is very, very important, not only for the next few months but potentially for the future of the human species.

    (* And there is another point about the healthcare system being overwhelmed that goes beyond questions about death. However, the state of overwhelmedness of the system in NYC seems to have been over-predicted, and anyway at this point, it is impossible to understand what is objective problems and what is simply fear. So I hold the issue in the back of my mind but don't put too much stock in it.)
    (** Kudos here to Steve for brainstorming obituaries, although that's really more in the area of lockdown discussion than severe prevention discussion.)

    That’s not a very original idea
     
    I didn't claim it was, and, oh, by the way, neither is the lockdown, which, in fact, is a rather stale idea by now.
  214. Anonymous[366] • Disclaimer says:
    @LondonBob
    Testing positive for coronavirus means you have it at that particular time, negative doesn't mean you didn't have it already. An important point.

    Testing positive for coronavirus means you have it at that particular time, negative doesn’t mean you didn’t have it already. An important point.

    Negative also doesn’t mean you do not have it right then and there.

    Large percentage of false negatives.

  215. Anonymous[366] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jack D
    There have been a number of articles on this. For reasons that are not yet well understood, Covid patients especially don't tend to do well on ventilators. Up to 80% or more die anyway. There is some question whether they are actually DECREASING people's chance of survival by ventilating them.

    Doctor sees a patient starving for oxygen and not breathing well on his own, so his natural inclination is to ventilate the patient as a last resort. Otherwise the patient will probably die in a few hours. Doctor figures that the ventilator will at least give him a fighting chance. Maybe he'll recover from the virus in a couple of weeks and then can be weaned from the ventilator. Most of the time, doctor figures wrong.

    Maybe he’ll recover from the virus in a couple of weeks and then can be weaned from the ventilator. Most of the time, doctor figures wrong.

    Are you saying that these doctors made the wrong decision to put patients on ventilators? What alternative do they have?

    • Replies: @Jack D
    See Steve's new Takimag piece. For some reason, Covid patients especially do not do well on ventilators. Not clear whether they were going to die anyway or whether the ventilator actually makes things worse but a therapy in which 80%+ of your patients die (after days or weeks of great expense and suffering) is not a great therapy. But apparently oxygen masks plus turning them on their back seems to work as well or better than ventilating for Wuhan Virus and this requires much less attention from the medical staff.
  216. What relationship does the Tom Hanks disease share with the Elizabeth Smart disease? Is it possible to contract both at the same time? The Patty Hearst disease? Do we run out of that disease when we run out of Jimmy Carters and Bill Clintons? Maybe then we get the more lethal Ted Kennedy Disease. Don’t hold your breath, though.

  217. @Jack D

    how ethnic origin and colonial history correlate with shitholocity today
     
    I have heard various explanations about how this or that island was the first/last stop for the slave ships and so got all of the best/worst slaves but I'm not sure that I really buy into them, especially if you are talking only about the British ruled islands (Haiti is in a class by itself). Fundamentally, most of the islands had an economy based on sugar cane cultivation and most of the islands ended up populated mostly by Africans (if the Columbian discovery in the Caribbean was intentionally aimed at repopulating it with blacks the results could not have been any better - lots of intentional plans don't achieve nearly as good results). The rest is mostly background noise and "just so" stories. It should also be noted that there has been a lot of movement between islands, much in just the last few decades as the tourist economy picked up in some places more than others. So while the populations remain largely black everywhere, they are not necessarily the ORIGINAL blacks or their descendants who may be far outnumbered by the newcomers.

    The first three principle components of Caribbean island shitholocity are race, years since acquired independence, and former colonial master. But that’s just my opinion. For one of these cruises you bring along some experts. I suggest: Eric Holder, Lynn Manuel Miranda and Sammy Sosa!

  218. @Jane Plain
    You really don't know what a bunch of lying liars Hollywood types are.

    The whole thing has an aura of show biz fakery.

    Now Rita Wilson says they gave her the malaria drug. Did she say that before? It's all in the news, so she took it.

    It's a fraud. Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson were never sick, they just became "the public face" of the disease because Hollywood wanted to cash in.

    I am not a COVID denier at all. I think this is truly a pandemic, and will be with us for several more waves.

    I had the same suspicion until Japanese comedian Shimura Ken died of it a couple of weeks ago and English comedian Tim Brooke-Taylor died of it days ago. That put a dent in my skepticism. I assume Coronavirus was a contributory factor in their deaths at least.

    • Replies: @Jane Plain
    I don't understand your reasoning. Some people do, legitimately, die of COVID19. That doesn't mean that Hanx didn't participate in show-biz fakery.
  219. @anon
    Just the flu, bro. Just the flu.

    https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-dying-together-coronavirus-20200414-atv34aun7fhf7atucntor63jee-story.html#rt=chartbeat-flt

    Just the flu, bro. Just the flu.

    The 3 who died were 94, 86 and 84. And the 86yo had cancer and both the 86 and 84 yo had atherosclerosis (though unknown how bad)

    If they had died of the flu it would not have been a shock either.

    The other five recovered, from the sounds of it.

    It is unfortunate that they died of this, but it doesn’t change the narrative at all, imo.

    Nor does it justify the shelter-in-place or shutting down things other than the largest gatherings and nightclubs.

    • Thanks: Manfred Arcane
    • Replies: @anon
    If you read the few details of the Florida story, those fatalities followed the usual route we saw in Italy and Spain and now parts of NYC. So not "just the flu", eh?

    It is unfortunate that they died of this, but it doesn’t change the narrative at all, imo.

    Which narrative? There are two: "It's just the flu, bro" and "OMG WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!". Anything rational equates to both "Yer a doomer!" and "you hate old people!".

    Mob psychology is not a pretty topic.

    Nor does it justify the shelter-in-place or shutting down things other than the largest gatherings and nightclubs.

    Dude, this is combox land, what we write here doesn't mean a whole lot. But if certain special people and (((special people))) flat out refuse to obey any reasonable limit on gatherings and clubs, what then? "Sucks to be them" is not a really legit answer, but whatta whatta do?

    This pandemic has shown that we cannot apply the same rules to all groups. But we better not Notice that!

    There are still unknowns about this virus. Wide variation in response, apparently a mix of genetic and exogenous factors. Loss of sense of smell and maybe taste as a symptom. The Spanish cases of blisters on toes as a symptom. Some people have had "sizzling" sensations under the skin. Difficulty speaking.

    Long term effects are unknown: heart? Nervous system? Reproductive system? We don't know.

    One thing is obvious, it is not "just the flu, bro". We're not all gonna die of it this year, either.
    , @Jack D
    I saw the stats today from my (mostly) suburban PA county where there aren't that many obese diabetic black people to lower the average age. In my county, the average age of death from Wuhan Virus was 81.1 and the youngest was 48 (in the one municipality with a lot of minorities - in this town the average age of death was only 71.8). In one fairly hard hit but white town, the AVERAGE age of death was 90.9 (with the oldest victim being 101).

    So, just like with AIDS, the public health authorities have been lying to us, big time. This is a disease of, mainly (1) old people, especially VERY old people and (2) minorities, esp. blacks. If you are not either (1) or (2) (let's say you are a white college student) then your risk of dying from this is NIL. It's not 1% or even .1%, it's NIL, a statistical zero. They have cancelled your classes for no good reason at all. By not allowing it to circulate among college students and build herd immunity, they have made things WORSE in the long run.

  220. @reiner Tor

    So our goal now should be preventing chaos and panic, not preventing deaths or infections per se.
     
    Why not? Why can't we pursue both?

    You guys don't seem to realize how much chaos and destruction (including economic destruction) is coming from the virus itself. Also, preventing the serious cases might not be possible (or not within the next few months). You also don't seem to realize how long it would take for the epidemic to reach its natural conclusion (infecting almost everyone to reach "herd immunity") - it would take several months. (Compare that to 2.5 months needed in Wuhan to completely eradicate the virus.) You don't seem to realize how much human capital there is in less than perfectly healthy individuals (aged over 50, not that the virus couldn't kill people under 30), like engineers and scientists.

    The idea that some people should just drop dead, such is life, is a repulsive third world idea. The people saying this have a very third world mentality. "Sure, yeah, by not doing much to prevent infection, some old people die, but old people have always died. Yeah, some young people also die, but such is life, some get unlucky. Yeah, I know, in developed first world countries they just test everyone and if necessary close down entire cities, but here in Africa that would be impossible. So why not think about how to accelerate the epidemic so that it's over quicker?"

    Sorry to say, but that's what you guys sound like. Wuhan showed that even an out of control outbreak could be stopped. South Korea (and Taiwan) showed how to prevent large-scale outbreaks, or nip them in the bud early enough without shutting down your economy. (But China shows that even shutting down part of your economy should be possible for a couple months.) But these just seem to require too much competence, so you instinctively go for the African solution, just letting the epidemic run its course, while trying to prevent panic. (You won't prevent it, at the end of the day, because people will believe you as much as Africans believe their own governments.)


    should shift your focus over from analyzing death rates
     
    I will stop analyzing death rates the moment people stop writing that iT'S jUSt THe fLU. The mortality rate seems closer to the Spanish flu, or at least, say, half that of the Spanish flu, depending on circumstances.

    whether or not initial infective dose is important in severity
     
    That's not a very original idea, but of course it's being studied. It's very difficult to find out, of course, because it's impossible to measure the initial dose. But it would seem that while it could play a role, it's either possible to catch a large dose from an asymptomatic carrier, or else to get seriously ill from a small dose only. Either way, asymptomatic carriers can infect someone who will fall seriously ill with pneumonia and eventually die, there have been many such cases.

    You also don’t seem to realize how long it would take for the epidemic to reach its natural conclusion (infecting almost everyone to reach “herd immunity”) – it would take several months. (Compare that to 2.5 months needed in Wuhan to completely eradicate the virus.)

    Except that we don’t actually know exactly what happened in Wuhan. They didn’t eradicate it since they still have a few new cases that they’re admitting to. There may be many more that they’re not admitting to.

    We also don’t really know how many cases they’ve had. At the very least we know for the main run off the disease they weren’t reporting asymptomatic people even when they tested positive. So that’s a multiple of 2 or more right off the bat in addition to all the people they just didn’t test.

    It’s possible they’ve already reached significant herd immunity in Wuhan like some towns in Northern Italy seen to have achieved.

    So it’s not over in China or Korea or anywhere else yet.

    We’re basically all on the UK herd immunity plan anyway wherever we admit it to ourselves or not.

  221. @Steve Sailer
    It seems to be spread most by fun.

    It seems to be spread most by fun.

    Valid theory. I know three C-suite types who criss cross the globe for work, travel(ed) to Asia/Europe monthly, travel so much they are members of the secret top tier United Global Services mileage program, two of whom left Singapore in late January two days before it was reported that it spread at a business meeting at the Grand Hyatt Singapore and they didn’t catch it. Granted, they’re all distance runners who are pretty fit fifty-somethings and don’t have substance abuse issues, unlike the typical celebrity (Hanks is rumored to be an alcoholic on the gossip sites), but since one of them is my sibling I’ve had my eye on coronavirus news since late-January, deathly afraid they were going to catch it on their travels.

  222. @Anonymous
    Does NY have more professions where people get real close to one another?

    Do they still have stock floors where everyone is screaming and pushing against one another?
    Or is that a thing of the past?


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RLySXTIBS3c

    As far as I am aware the NYSE and LME are the only places left that still have floor trading, maybe Chicago does still too and maybe one or two others.

    Well worth visiting the LME.

  223. @MEH 0910
    https://scitechdaily.com/evidence-of-stray-dogs-as-possible-origin-of-covid-19-pandemic/

    https://twitter.com/medical_xpress/status/1250166946735304705

    Yes, it’s the dogs, not that level 4 bio research lab in Wuhan, the only level 4 BSL research lab in China, that just happened to be doing coronavirus research.

  224. @reiner Tor

    So our goal now should be preventing chaos and panic, not preventing deaths or infections per se.
     
    Why not? Why can't we pursue both?

    You guys don't seem to realize how much chaos and destruction (including economic destruction) is coming from the virus itself. Also, preventing the serious cases might not be possible (or not within the next few months). You also don't seem to realize how long it would take for the epidemic to reach its natural conclusion (infecting almost everyone to reach "herd immunity") - it would take several months. (Compare that to 2.5 months needed in Wuhan to completely eradicate the virus.) You don't seem to realize how much human capital there is in less than perfectly healthy individuals (aged over 50, not that the virus couldn't kill people under 30), like engineers and scientists.

    The idea that some people should just drop dead, such is life, is a repulsive third world idea. The people saying this have a very third world mentality. "Sure, yeah, by not doing much to prevent infection, some old people die, but old people have always died. Yeah, some young people also die, but such is life, some get unlucky. Yeah, I know, in developed first world countries they just test everyone and if necessary close down entire cities, but here in Africa that would be impossible. So why not think about how to accelerate the epidemic so that it's over quicker?"

    Sorry to say, but that's what you guys sound like. Wuhan showed that even an out of control outbreak could be stopped. South Korea (and Taiwan) showed how to prevent large-scale outbreaks, or nip them in the bud early enough without shutting down your economy. (But China shows that even shutting down part of your economy should be possible for a couple months.) But these just seem to require too much competence, so you instinctively go for the African solution, just letting the epidemic run its course, while trying to prevent panic. (You won't prevent it, at the end of the day, because people will believe you as much as Africans believe their own governments.)


    should shift your focus over from analyzing death rates
     
    I will stop analyzing death rates the moment people stop writing that iT'S jUSt THe fLU. The mortality rate seems closer to the Spanish flu, or at least, say, half that of the Spanish flu, depending on circumstances.

    whether or not initial infective dose is important in severity
     
    That's not a very original idea, but of course it's being studied. It's very difficult to find out, of course, because it's impossible to measure the initial dose. But it would seem that while it could play a role, it's either possible to catch a large dose from an asymptomatic carrier, or else to get seriously ill from a small dose only. Either way, asymptomatic carriers can infect someone who will fall seriously ill with pneumonia and eventually die, there have been many such cases.

    Right now, everything we (as in, you and I) are doing on iSteve and other blogs and forums is just replicating what is being done by academics and gov’t scientists. But unlike their researches, which will influence policy and be decisive pronouncements on the pandemic, our discussions are really doing nothing except contributing to the emotional state and political perspectives of the general public.

    At this point, it seems pretty obvious that fatality is going to be in the 1.0% range, plus or minus, and, importantly, that the number isn’t going to get resolved by what we post. Even without any preventive measure at all, we are not looking at anything like MERS, and maybe not anything like SARS 1, either. So, debating the fatality rate is really just a stand-in for shouting at each other, “I’m really worried” and “I’m not really worried”.

    I started off in the “I’m really worried” camp, but I am slowly making my over to the “I’m not really worried” camp. Partly, that’s because the people who are strongly pro-worry are, like you, frequently irrational about the acceptance of death…

    The people saying this have a very third world mentality.

    We do accept avoidable death as a price of freedom and wealth in the FIrst World. That is simply an unassailable and well-established fact. Whether you are talking about drunk driving or influenza or diabetes, we as a society accept deaths that could be avoided.
    Often, we rationalize this as being about personal responsibility. You’re dying early from heart disease secondary to diabetes? That’s too bad, but you made the choice to live on Wonderbread and Coca-Cola. We’ll try to help you, but we’re not shutting down your supply of Wonderbread and Coca-Cola.
    Other times, we treat it like an “act of God” or “force of Nature”, as when influenza takes the lives of elderly people.
    If influenza takes the life of an obese person with diabetes, how do we think about it? Usually, we don’t, but if pressed, I suspect most Americans and Europeans would say Yeah, it’s kind of their fault since we know how to prevent diabetes. Certainly, we’re not shutting down the country for that..
    Of course, in these current times, we are also told to accept deaths for the sake of D.I.E. (ironically), for example by not cordoning off Africa for Ebola. (And I disagree with that sentiment, but I don’t count intercourse with Africa as any substantial benefit to the West, whereas I count our freedom and wealth to be central to our security and identity.)
    Of course, there are people like Unz and LionOTB who are apoplectic over math, but for the most part the “I’m really worried” camp is being unrealistic about balancing death against freedom and wealth.

    Now, I am NOT arguing that this Coronavirus pandemic is “just the flu”, so don’t put words in my mouth. However, it is a fact that we accept deaths of both the old and the obese (yes, obesity is a risk factor for severe form of influenza as well as severe form of COVID19) from influenza every year without locking down. Yes, it’s true that we spend a lot of money as a society on vaccines, which may only benefit the old, fat, and chronically ill, and that is to our credit. But we don’t restrict people’s freedoms and shut down the economy every year. We accept that some people are going to die. I do, Steve does, and you, reiner Tor, do as well.

    You guys don’t seem to realize how much chaos and destruction (including economic destruction) is coming from the virus itself.

    On the contrary, we ALL don’t know how much chaos and destruction is coming from the Coronavirus itself. If people (if you) had a good measure of this, they (you) would be quoting it, but they (you) aren’t. On the other hand, from the lockdown, we are seeing the stock market in real time, and we are starting to see estimates about unemployment too. From my position on the fence, it looks more like the “I’m really worried” camp has a weaker grasp on the economic situation than the “I’m not really worried” camp has grasp on the effects of the virus, which are mostly fear and death (almost all other effects being attributable to fear and/or prevention of the infection).

    Coronavirus is killing more people than the flu, but basically it is killing the same people that flu kills. You have vast majority old people, then some fat people and people with chronic illnesses, and then a smattering of what appear to be in our research random unlucky individuals. To say that these people’s lives are not worth a lockdown when they die of the flu but are worth a lockdown when they die of Coronavirus is completely irrational. That is the real reason people are arguing so much over whether the death rate is 0.5% or 1.5% or 5.1%–completely arbitrary numbers that just are just stand-ins for “I’m used to this much death” and “this is more death than I’m used to”.* (And, to be honest, the 1.5% camp is really just saying, “This death is right in front of me on TV!!”, because nobody is really “used to” influenza deaths, because nobody thinks about them. And that doesn’t usually bother anybody, including reiner Tor.)

    The GDP is not just an abstraction, and getting people back to work doesn’t just help Goldman Sachs. The lockdown is doing real damage to people that is every bit as real as the real damage being caused by the virus. That is also an unassailable fact.

    Yet another unassailable fact is that the majority of people will be either not affected or not affected very much by getting the Coronavirus. That means our entire lockdown is for the small percentage of people who will develop the severe form of COVID19. Focus on that: the severe form of COVID19… If it weren’t for the development of severe form of COVID19, we could all go about our lives as normal.

    So, now you have to ask yourself what is the best way of preventing the severe form of COVID19? Here are some common ideas:
    (1) stop any Coronavirus infection in order to prevent the possibility of it turning into severe COVID19 (i.e., the lockdown).
    (2) develop a vaccine
    (3) use hydroxychloroquine (HCQ)

    If we discount #3 (since HCQ’s efficacy is in question), are we really just left with deciding between a lockdown and a world with a vaccine? Is there really no other option? Is it truly a crapshoot who gets the severe form (we can’t identify the people)? Are there truly no behaviors we can modify in the short term to decrease our chance of converting to severe form? Are there truly no non-pharmacological interventions hospitals can use? If the answers to all these questions are “yes”, COVID19 would be a very unusual disease indeed.

    Why not? Why can’t we pursue both?

    So, back to your original question, “why not both”? My position is that preventing the severe form of COVID19 with points #4 to infinity above (which are currently missing) is more efficient (maybe not more effective, but more efficient) and rational than our current course of action, and talking about what points #4 to infinity might be would take us away from fear and towards the normal kind of decision-making we do in society. On the level of research and policy, it is not going to be any more effective than discussing death rates, but it replaces us shouting at each other “I’m really worried” and “I’m not really worried.” (And if everyone were talking about that, maybe somebody would come up with a great idea.**) On the whole, it would be an emotionally and practically more productive conversation.

    Again, I am not saying “it’s just the flu, so let everyone do whatever they want”, and if you characterize me that way you are dishonest. I am suggesting a complex response to the Coronavirus that includes masking, distancing, partial lockdowns broadly and total lockdowns in select locations or among select demographics, but also focuses less on transmission than on dealing with the real problem, which is the severe form of COVID19. That might include accepting slightly higher numbers of deaths among the old and obese, but also might include things like hot/cold hydrotherapy for modulating the immune response. We don’t know, and we need to think about it. The important point to realize here is: MOST PEOPLE ARE NOT GETTING SICK, SO WE NEED TO KNOW WHY THE SEVERELY ILL ARE GETTING ILL AND TARGET THAT ISSUE. That is very, very important, not only for the next few months but potentially for the future of the human species.

    (* And there is another point about the healthcare system being overwhelmed that goes beyond questions about death. However, the state of overwhelmedness of the system in NYC seems to have been over-predicted, and anyway at this point, it is impossible to understand what is objective problems and what is simply fear. So I hold the issue in the back of my mind but don’t put too much stock in it.)
    (** Kudos here to Steve for brainstorming obituaries, although that’s really more in the area of lockdown discussion than severe prevention discussion.)

    That’s not a very original idea

    I didn’t claim it was, and, oh, by the way, neither is the lockdown, which, in fact, is a rather stale idea by now.

    • Agree: Wielgus
  225. @Anonymous

    Maybe he’ll recover from the virus in a couple of weeks and then can be weaned from the ventilator. Most of the time, doctor figures wrong.
     
    Are you saying that these doctors made the wrong decision to put patients on ventilators? What alternative do they have?

    See Steve’s new Takimag piece. For some reason, Covid patients especially do not do well on ventilators. Not clear whether they were going to die anyway or whether the ventilator actually makes things worse but a therapy in which 80%+ of your patients die (after days or weeks of great expense and suffering) is not a great therapy. But apparently oxygen masks plus turning them on their back seems to work as well or better than ventilating for Wuhan Virus and this requires much less attention from the medical staff.

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    More on the ventilator issues from this NYC MD:
    https://mobile.twitter.com/cameronks

    And MEDCram video on reports from Italy about same:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8aG63yigjA
  226. @Chrisnonymous
    Becoming an elite, no doubt. That's why people go to California, isn't it?

    Yes, exactly. (The conference itself involved something called Somatic Psychology).

  227. @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    "AIDS has had the most effect on the worldview of the public health establishment in recent decades, and the lessons many took from it were that the public couldn’t be trusted with the truth about who was spreading it (needle junkies and anonymous sodomy addicts)."

    This was well documented in Michael Fumento's 1992 best selling book "The Myth of Heterosexual AIDS", even down to when Fumento estimated that the virus would peak (around the late late nineties, into the early 2000's, which it did). The book told the truth in bare terms. The medical establishment, including Dr. Anthony Fauci owes Michael Fumento an official public apology.

    This was well documented in Michael Fumento’s 1992 best selling book “The Myth of Heterosexual AIDS”

    Thank you Yojimbo/Zatoichi for making an extremely important point. I had a patented way of preventing the spread of HIV. I received FDA approval many years ago. Sadly, it is based on the fact that a subset of the population (homosexuals) are the ones who pass it on to other males and to females. It is a concept that is anathema to medical professionals who have a very poor understanding of mathematics and simulations.

    There is a fundamental misunderstanding about “Herd Immunity”. Like in all networked systems – such as human society – some nodes are more busy than others.

    A person such as Tom Hanks gets invited to more “jollies” in a week than I do in a decade. That means that his chance of getting infected through breathing or handshaking is vastly higher than mine. When he gets infected, he can pass it on to far more people in a month than I could in a lifetime. Once the active “nodes” become either resistant or die, they cease being a bridge for the infection and the disease stops spreading.

    The point I am getting at is that if 15% of the people in a town in Germany have antibodies, the infection will stop. This is because these 15% compose the most socially active members of the community. They will be the insulator that will protect the less extrovert people.

    A good analogy is the internet where there are a vast number of websites that get hardly any visits and a much smaller number that get 80% of the traffic. Tom Hanks is like FT.com or something like that. Donald Trump is more like Yahoo.com. To prevent the internet from working satisfactorily (i.e. pass on infections), it suffices to shut down Google.com and a handful of others.

  228. @Jack D
    See Steve's new Takimag piece. For some reason, Covid patients especially do not do well on ventilators. Not clear whether they were going to die anyway or whether the ventilator actually makes things worse but a therapy in which 80%+ of your patients die (after days or weeks of great expense and suffering) is not a great therapy. But apparently oxygen masks plus turning them on their back seems to work as well or better than ventilating for Wuhan Virus and this requires much less attention from the medical staff.

    More on the ventilator issues from this NYC MD:
    https://mobile.twitter.com/cameronks

    And MEDCram video on reports from Italy about same:

  229. @Anonymous
    Steve, you're over thinking this one:

    Basically, it's just the random factor - true for all airborne viral respiratory illnesses, such as the flu, colds etc - combined with the exponential law, combined with the vagaries of social intercourse.
    A lot of noise at the beginning, but it 'evens itself out' at the end due to the interplay of all these factors, the law of averages, and the fact that man is a social creature.

    Think of '7 degrees of Kevin Bacon', or even Einstein's explanation of 'Brownian motion', the 'random walk' theory of gas molecule motion, the kinetic theory of gases.
    Basically, a high degree of randomness, instituted by one amongst the multitude, has its own uniformity caused by sheer weight of numbers, and in the case of our Darwinian cousins, the virus, - the act of massive replication when sufficient human meat is available.

    Think of ‘7 degrees of Kevin Bacon’, or even Einstein’s explanation of ‘Brownian motion’, the ‘random walk’ theory of gas molecule motion, the kinetic theory of gases.

    I beg to disagree. There is randomness in social connectedness but it is a very skewed type of randomness. Some people see and touch far more people in a day than I do in in a year. Think of a GP. Think of a ticket collector on a train. Think of Tom Hanks.

  230. @Anonymous
    This reminds me, one time in the mid-1990s I had a few hours to kill so walked into a random cinema and went into a random film and saw my first ever gay kiss. Huge WTF moment. It was some sort of teen drama with mostly straight kids but also featured a gay couple doing their thing.

    I don't remember what this film was called. Does anyone have any idea what it could have been?

    Chicks with Dicks ? Salt and Pepper Poles ? Homo Hoes ? Take your pick ! The whole thing is so repulsive but it makes money. I had an Irish friend who worked in NYC Narco . The poor fellow must have been living in a bubble. Apparently he had to meet an informer and the only safe spot was a theatre with fag features. He went beet red telling his friends what he saw on the big screen.

    When my boys were young I never let them out of my sight, never permitted them to sleep over anywhere or at anyone’s house or allowed them to serve in Church. You dont know who is who these days.

    We are evolving to a higher plane LOL. What with so many people into the gay life one has to be also careful with comments especially at work less the boss happen to be a back door boy wearing a wedding band in which case you will be unemployed. The homo genie was let out of the bottle and we have what we have !

  231. But what if it turned out that popularity was crucially important? In this perspective, Tom Hanks, Idris Elba, Prince Charles, Boris Johnson, Kevin Durant, Chris Cuomo, and Rand Paul are rather like each other on the most medically relevant dimension…

    Not quite. According to Tim Pool, Chris Cuomo was most likely faking his coronavirus status, possibly at Jeff Zucker’s direction:

    Which makes sense when you think about it. After all, who’d want to shake Fredo’s hand? Even Johnny Ola took a rain-check.

  232. anon[368] • Disclaimer says:
    @vhrm

    Just the flu, bro. Just the flu.
     
    The 3 who died were 94, 86 and 84. And the 86yo had cancer and both the 86 and 84 yo had atherosclerosis (though unknown how bad)

    If they had died of the flu it would not have been a shock either.

    The other five recovered, from the sounds of it.

    It is unfortunate that they died of this, but it doesn't change the narrative at all, imo.

    Nor does it justify the shelter-in-place or shutting down things other than the largest gatherings and nightclubs.

    If you read the few details of the Florida story, those fatalities followed the usual route we saw in Italy and Spain and now parts of NYC. So not “just the flu”, eh?

    It is unfortunate that they died of this, but it doesn’t change the narrative at all, imo.

    Which narrative? There are two: “It’s just the flu, bro” and “OMG WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE!”. Anything rational equates to both “Yer a doomer!” and “you hate old people!”.

    Mob psychology is not a pretty topic.

    Nor does it justify the shelter-in-place or shutting down things other than the largest gatherings and nightclubs.

    Dude, this is combox land, what we write here doesn’t mean a whole lot. But if certain special people and (((special people))) flat out refuse to obey any reasonable limit on gatherings and clubs, what then? “Sucks to be them” is not a really legit answer, but whatta whatta do?

    This pandemic has shown that we cannot apply the same rules to all groups. But we better not Notice that!

    There are still unknowns about this virus. Wide variation in response, apparently a mix of genetic and exogenous factors. Loss of sense of smell and maybe taste as a symptom. The Spanish cases of blisters on toes as a symptom. Some people have had “sizzling” sensations under the skin. Difficulty speaking.

    Long term effects are unknown: heart? Nervous system? Reproductive system? We don’t know.

    One thing is obvious, it is not “just the flu, bro”. We’re not all gonna die of it this year, either.

    • Replies: @vhrm

    This pandemic has shown that we cannot apply the same rules to all groups. But we better not Notice that!
     
    This aspect splits my loyalties because i generally don't like rule breaking , but i also don't like tyranny and stupid rules.

    So in this case i actually respect people e.g who still went to funerals.
  233. @Romanian
    I caught it randomly on TV in several E.European countries, including mine, over the years. Our networks are suckers for Oscar movies, though.

    I caught it randomly on TV in several E.European countries

    It was no accident even if you thought so. It is the brainwashing of East Europeans so that they have gay parades like the USA, Australia and so on. Some call it Soft Power- like a flaccid penis.

    • Replies: @Romanian
    :))))

    Maybe, but I do not think that it worked as intended. The attempted brainwashing is real, but Modern Family was a bigger normalizer than Philadelphia or Angels in America. And, yes, we do have pride parades now. Even Serbia stronk does.

    And a lot of the brainwashing is not just about proselytizing the latest Western values, but also as an enabler of the sexual exploitation (real, in image, and in a "black body" kind of way) of Eastern European women as an important subset of the White woman fixation (Budapest is huge in porn, as is Prague).
  234. @Anonymous
    Not a scientist here but this is why I have such a problem with the concept of Ro. What are we measuring when we say one person will infect x others? Isn't it hugely dependent on factors like Hanksness as well as need to ride subways? What is the usefulness of a concept that may have some theoretical justification (one person in a lab will infect x others at y distance over z time period) but which gets swamped by reality? I mean, I get the usefulness of the idea but how can it be helpful to crank it into an assumption to a model without taking account of the particulars?

    Not a scientist here but this is why I have such a problem with the concept of Ro.

    I am glad someone else is on the ball. I explained it in detail at comment #228.

    Networks do not behave the way people like to think.

  235. @Alfred
    I caught it randomly on TV in several E.European countries

    It was no accident even if you thought so. It is the brainwashing of East Europeans so that they have gay parades like the USA, Australia and so on. Some call it Soft Power- like a flaccid penis.

    https://cdn.gaystarnews.com/uploads/2019/03/The-41st-Sydney-Gay-and-Lesbian-Mardi-Gras-parade.jpg

    :))))

    Maybe, but I do not think that it worked as intended. The attempted brainwashing is real, but Modern Family was a bigger normalizer than Philadelphia or Angels in America. And, yes, we do have pride parades now. Even Serbia stronk does.

    And a lot of the brainwashing is not just about proselytizing the latest Western values, but also as an enabler of the sexual exploitation (real, in image, and in a “black body” kind of way) of Eastern European women as an important subset of the White woman fixation (Budapest is huge in porn, as is Prague).

  236. @Dr. X
    OT:

    Black social distancing: six shot at party in Bakersfield

    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/six-people-shot-california-house-party-violated-stay-home-order-n1181981?cid=public-rss_20200411

    94 rounds fired... no fatalities?

    No fatalities?

    May have something to do with the way black gangbangers shoot their firearms; that stupid sideways style. Mythbusters did a program that showed it was the least effective way to use a gun. The Weaver stance is the best. But blacks think it makes them look cool.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    Weaver is great for scoring points on a target range but in real life stressful combat situations (and ghetto shooting is a type of combat), people revert to point shooting (basically what you do when you shoot your imaginary finger pistol). Note that point shooting does NOT involve holding your finger (oops I mean pistol) sideways. In fact what ghetto black kids do is not even point shooting - they just spray bullets randomly without aiming at all because they are excited (not to mention on drugs), which is why they often fail to kill their targets.
  237. @vhrm

    Just the flu, bro. Just the flu.
     
    The 3 who died were 94, 86 and 84. And the 86yo had cancer and both the 86 and 84 yo had atherosclerosis (though unknown how bad)

    If they had died of the flu it would not have been a shock either.

    The other five recovered, from the sounds of it.

    It is unfortunate that they died of this, but it doesn't change the narrative at all, imo.

    Nor does it justify the shelter-in-place or shutting down things other than the largest gatherings and nightclubs.

    I saw the stats today from my (mostly) suburban PA county where there aren’t that many obese diabetic black people to lower the average age. In my county, the average age of death from Wuhan Virus was 81.1 and the youngest was 48 (in the one municipality with a lot of minorities – in this town the average age of death was only 71.8). In one fairly hard hit but white town, the AVERAGE age of death was 90.9 (with the oldest victim being 101).

    So, just like with AIDS, the public health authorities have been lying to us, big time. This is a disease of, mainly (1) old people, especially VERY old people and (2) minorities, esp. blacks. If you are not either (1) or (2) (let’s say you are a white college student) then your risk of dying from this is NIL. It’s not 1% or even .1%, it’s NIL, a statistical zero. They have cancelled your classes for no good reason at all. By not allowing it to circulate among college students and build herd immunity, they have made things WORSE in the long run.

    • Agree: vhrm, Alfred
    • Thanks: anonymous1963
  238. @anonymous1963
    No fatalities?


    May have something to do with the way black gangbangers shoot their firearms; that stupid sideways style. Mythbusters did a program that showed it was the least effective way to use a gun. The Weaver stance is the best. But blacks think it makes them look cool.

    Weaver is great for scoring points on a target range but in real life stressful combat situations (and ghetto shooting is a type of combat), people revert to point shooting (basically what you do when you shoot your imaginary finger pistol). Note that point shooting does NOT involve holding your finger (oops I mean pistol) sideways. In fact what ghetto black kids do is not even point shooting – they just spray bullets randomly without aiming at all because they are excited (not to mention on drugs), which is why they often fail to kill their targets.

  239. In the film The Usual Suspects, which came out in 1995 or so, the (white) gangsters point their guns like that. The first time I saw that dramatised. It just looked odd.

  240. @anon
    If you read the few details of the Florida story, those fatalities followed the usual route we saw in Italy and Spain and now parts of NYC. So not "just the flu", eh?

    It is unfortunate that they died of this, but it doesn’t change the narrative at all, imo.

    Which narrative? There are two: "It's just the flu, bro" and "OMG WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!". Anything rational equates to both "Yer a doomer!" and "you hate old people!".

    Mob psychology is not a pretty topic.

    Nor does it justify the shelter-in-place or shutting down things other than the largest gatherings and nightclubs.

    Dude, this is combox land, what we write here doesn't mean a whole lot. But if certain special people and (((special people))) flat out refuse to obey any reasonable limit on gatherings and clubs, what then? "Sucks to be them" is not a really legit answer, but whatta whatta do?

    This pandemic has shown that we cannot apply the same rules to all groups. But we better not Notice that!

    There are still unknowns about this virus. Wide variation in response, apparently a mix of genetic and exogenous factors. Loss of sense of smell and maybe taste as a symptom. The Spanish cases of blisters on toes as a symptom. Some people have had "sizzling" sensations under the skin. Difficulty speaking.

    Long term effects are unknown: heart? Nervous system? Reproductive system? We don't know.

    One thing is obvious, it is not "just the flu, bro". We're not all gonna die of it this year, either.

    This pandemic has shown that we cannot apply the same rules to all groups. But we better not Notice that!

    This aspect splits my loyalties because i generally don’t like rule breaking , but i also don’t like tyranny and stupid rules.

    So in this case i actually respect people e.g who still went to funerals.

    • Agree: Wielgus
  241. @RodW
    I had the same suspicion until Japanese comedian Shimura Ken died of it a couple of weeks ago and English comedian Tim Brooke-Taylor died of it days ago. That put a dent in my skepticism. I assume Coronavirus was a contributory factor in their deaths at least.

    I don’t understand your reasoning. Some people do, legitimately, die of COVID19. That doesn’t mean that Hanx didn’t participate in show-biz fakery.

  242. @Jane Plain
    Yeah, they eat a lot of white man's junk and pay the price.

    There are three principal components to the extraordinarily high levels of obesity observed in many societies in Polynesia. The CBERF genetic component, sociological factors that used to, historically, associate obesity and force-feeding of starch in late adolescence with high or royal status (in Samoa and Tonga), and a radical change in diet towards canned meats such as Spam, which happened in WWII and after, with inexpensive military surplus tinned food becoming widely available.

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TD1CNqghN7Q

    Samoans and foot massages...
  243. @PiltdownMan
    There are three principal components to the extraordinarily high levels of obesity observed in many societies in Polynesia. The CBERF genetic component, sociological factors that used to, historically, associate obesity and force-feeding of starch in late adolescence with high or royal status (in Samoa and Tonga), and a radical change in diet towards canned meats such as Spam, which happened in WWII and after, with inexpensive military surplus tinned food becoming widely available.

    Samoans and foot massages…

  244. @Servant of Gla'aki

    It came out in 1993, when the youngest boomers were hitting 29 or 31, depending on how you count. It was the 12th-highest grossing movie in the U.S. that year ($77.4 million). Movie audiences skew young, as you may know. And you think only people over 30, plus “homos” and a few girls saw it?
     
    I can't help but notice you didn't indicate you had seen it, however. Which I think counts for a lot more than your boring speculation that people in their teens & early 20 were flocking to this film in 1994* (I was there, and I can assure you we were not).

    *the year this film was actually released

    I saw it. It was pretty good. And yeah, you’re a fucking idiot.

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