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From iSteve commenter Visionary:

Steve, I’m a physician in NYC, and want to know what your take is:

I’m wondering if people who are being hospitalized and who are likely to crump are much more likely to be those who have co-infections with COVID and influenza, *particularly if they have no comorbidities or are not old*.

I think that is what explains why the US has hospitalizations rates break down the way they do (which was confusing me), why Italy is getting hammered all at once, and why places like South Korea and Japan have ridiculously low hospitalization rates of people, particularly those who are young.

The US vaccinates the elderly the most (pretty well to be fair), the young (6-17) second most, 50-65 third most, and the lowest people from 18-49 (basically only 25-30 percent of people).

South Korea vaccinates an insane amount of the old, and pretty much is better than us even in the young. Japan isn’t so great BUT South Korea and Japan also tend to have low rates of influenza.

Italy sucks at vaccinating the elderly (they’re waaay worse than us) and pretty much everyone else too, plus they have high influenza incidence rates.

So you get a situation where South Korea and Japan have low hospitalization rates, with SK doing amazingly well, we have PREFERENTIALLY elevated hospitalization rates of our young between 18-49 (since we don’t vaccinate them very well), and Italy gets hospitalization of basically everyone, but the ones who get hammered are the elderly who are not vaccinated since they’re at highest risk a priori.

The tip off is multifold:

First: when you look at our non-overwhelmed death rate after hospitalization due to influenza and coronavirus, it’s almost literally the same (7-8 percent). This suggests to me that coronavirus just might be permitting opportunistic infections to nail you. Sort of like an HIV phenomenon. Meaning while it DOES have the capacity to kill you, that’s probably less likely than how you actually do die. And the opportunistic infection is influenza for the most part if you’re being hospitalized for “coronavirus”.

Second: you look at Italy and they’ve almost stopped counting influenza deaths, but somehow their numbers for coronavirus are kind of on scale of what you’d see for influenza, only it’s sped up (like everyone is presenting like they’re end-stage influenza). It’s also right at the peak of Italian flu deaths historically.

Third: There is a case report from China of co-infection shows that these patients get hammered as a proof of concept. It’s the only one I can find because they were intrepid in testing both. We are not testing both often at all.

Fourth: COVID19 host immune reponse: it causes lymphopenia which means some white blood cells actually go DOWN, which explains why it initially is asymptomatic. It ALSO explains why the secondary infections are so terrible (your immune system basically doesn’t stop the initial infection), and why the worst patients start mimicking apparently severe influenza. In particular, influenza often takes you out by causing severe ARDS. That’s pretty much what’s killing these patients with coronavirus. It also explains why anti-virals that “work” for influenza don’t work for coronavirus in severe cases — you need a decent immune system to clear out these viruses, and those things don’t work for coronavirus. So you get this double hit, but everyone just classifies it as “coronavirus”.

Fifth: Unless you’re a medical professional who is being exposed to massive viral loads every 5 minutes (so like ED or ICU), if you’re exposed and then go home, I’ve now heard of multiple medical professionals have relatively mild disease. Cough, some fever, but no hospitalization. I think part of that has to do with it being mandatory they get influenza vaccines. Indeed, I now suspect that if that weren’t the case, the rates of death for medical professionals would be insanely higher.

As an aside, the UK is great for older patients >65 in vaccinations (>70 percent) and TERRIBLE for younger patients (13 percent). They’re getting hit with younger patients being hospitalized.

France is even worse – they’re terrible for older patients (around 42 percent) and even more terrible for younger patients (13% but only for those who are “at risk”). Unsurprisingly, they’re getting hit with younger patients being hospitalized.

I can’t figure out Germany yet – they haven’t really released their hospitalization rate breakdowns, but they’re also terrible with young (and old) vaccinations.

Thanks for mentioning that Germany doesn’t fit the hypothesized pattern. It’s important right now when coming up with theories to point out the exceptions to your theory, as this commenter has done.

This clinically really matters because if the hypothesis is correct, one response is to try to get as many people vaccinated for influenza like right now, even if they’re 18-49 in the US, but in an orderly fashion. We actually HAVE that vaccine at present, and can potentially scale it up. Certainly we should think of doing so once we get through this to avoid the second round in like 5 months.

This hypothesis should be quickly testable using big data analytics on large databases of patients, such as Kaiser-Permanente’s. Are there any legal or regulatory roadblocks to doing this kind of thing fast?

One methodological problem might be that you can get a flu shot at a lot of places (I got mine at Costco last fall), not necessarily at your health care providers’s. I kept getting notices to come in to my health care provider and get a flu shot, but the Epic software didn’t seem to let me respond that I’d gotten one from a third party.

Anyway, this is speculation. Also, if this is valid, I’m not sure how much can be done about it right now.

As the commenter suggests, if this checks out, it would be a good to-do item for late summer: universal flu vaccination.

Commenter Dr. DoomNGloom points out:

Don’t be so sure about the power of Big Data. There is a long history of observational studies having opposite results to controlled studies. Only after carefully considering confounders and selection biases can the difference be resolved. Even then, often only after a considerable time has passed.

The key is thinking about the problem with a really deep understanding of the domain. Think “Bill James”.

Right, Bill James didn’t start out as a Big Data expert who then applied his skills to lowly baseball, he started out as an intense baseball fan who paid attention to what baseball people were already talking about — e.g., how smart is it to give a big 5 year contract to a 32 year old All-Star? — and then devised quantitative ways of getting fairly reliable answers.

Medicine is vastly more complicated than baseball.

One of the superstars in medical studies is Hernan at Harvard.
https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/miguel-hernan/research/causal-inference-from-observational-data/

Examples, neither baby aspirin nor fish oil prevent heart attacks. OTOH, the big data can get you insights , for example doses of epotin,

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3637948/

In medicine, Big Data observational (i.e., non-experimental) studies might be better suited for preliminary falsification: if a hypothesis like this fails in a quick Big Data analysis, then no need to go on to controlled studies.

 
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  1. dearieme says:

    One thing sticks out to me in all the debate I’ve seen about US health insurance and health care. The debate is always and only about private health. I’ve never seen anyone raise the matter of public health, such as epidemics.

    It seems to me bleedin’ obvious that it’s simple good sense that the taxpayer fund the likes of flu jabs – because you don’t have a flu jab just to protect you, you also do it to protect me.

  2. Dr. Visionary there in NYC sounds a lot calmer than anyone I’ve seen on my wife’s youtube sampling, 95% of the unz.com articles, and 75% of the commenters. I can’t vouch for the whole rest of the internet, but it seems like there have been a lot of black pills prescribed lately. The news media must suck them down like boxes of lemon heads.

    I appreciate your doctor commenter here being one of the few today who’s not just another nervous wreck.

    • Replies: @Redneck farmer
    , @bomag
  3. Don’t tell us – tell your medical colleagues, and any epidemiologists or virologists who will listen. If your insight proves to be correct, it will be the most valuable knowledge we have so far on prevention of Covid-19.

    • Agree: Mr McKenna
  4. Getting a flu vaccine sounds like good advice that can’t hurt, but if people get it now with the pandemic in full swing, could the vaccine’s short-term side effects make you more vulnerable to developing the severe complications of COVID19? (The side effects can last for up to 2 weeks, although I’ve never heard of people experiencing them for that duration of time. But I definitely am more tired for a couple of days, with slight chills, aches, and sometimes a low-grade fever.)

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
  5. Interesting, I got the flu shot from a pharmacist, and it showed up on the Epic system.

    I did see an article that suggested the anti-vaxx culture in Italy might be a big reason the death toll is so high, that there may be a weird symbiotic connection between the flu and Corona.

  6. donut says:

    Que sera , sera .

    • Replies: @donut
    , @Ganderson
  7. Don’t be so sure about the power of Big Data. There is a long history of observational studies having opposite results to controlled studies. Only after carefully considering confounders and selection biases can the difference be resolved. Even then, often only after a considerable time has passed.

    The key is thinking about the problem with a really deep understanding of the domain. Think “Bill James”. One of the superstars in medical studies is Hernan at Harvard.
    https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/miguel-hernan/research/causal-inference-from-observational-data/

    Examples, neither baby aspirin nor fish oil prevent heart attacks. OTOH, the big data can get you insights , for example doses of epotin, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3637948/

    • Thanks: Dieter Kief
  8. Bill P says:

    One thing people might want to take a look at is parents of young children and how this virus affects them. Since my first kid went to preschool back in 2008 I’ve lost count of how many viruses my kids have brought home. Some, like the swine flu, were particularly memorable, but the sheer volume is what really leaves an impression.

    Are parents getting hit harder, the same or are they doing well? If they are better off than average that suggests some protective effect from all the colds. If worse than average, perhaps more kids have it than we realize.

    We really ought to be doing a lot of analysis based on all sorts of demographic factors so as to get a better understanding of what this virus is all about.

  9. Anon[205] • Disclaimer says:

    No. I haven’t received the flu shot in over 10 years and haven’t been sick since. I used to get sick at least once every year that I received the flu shot.

    Avoid the flu shot as vaccines are unnatural, a cocktail of toxic chemicals, a form of control, and unorthodox as many of them use recycled fetal tissue.

    • Disagree: Roderick Spode
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @anon
    , @Anon
    , @Liza
    , @Fraz
  10. B36 says:

    Regarding the young who crump with coronavirus I wonder if a history of vaping or smoking marijuana plays a role.

  11. @Bill P

    Back when my kids were young, I worked for a company that had 8 sick days every year. With all the diseases kids bring home, I used pretty much all of them.

  12. anonymous[159] • Disclaimer says:

    OT: Trump officials especially Peter Navarro need to shut up with the grievance and focus on getting supplies. Navarro in the NYT saying he will take medical supplies from China as long as commies don’t end up looking good.

    The Trump administration is signaling it isn’t too proud to buy Chinese masks, gowns, goggles and other equipment. At the same time, said Peter Navarro, a senior Trump administration trade official, it will object to any Chinese effort to turn deliveries into fodder for propaganda that would bolster China’s image at home and abroad.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/business/coronavirus-china-masks.html

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    , @epebble
  13. @Achmed E. Newman

    It doesn’t matter, we must prevent ORANGE MAN BAD from being re-elected!
    And refuse to admit death is a part of life.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    , @Realist
  14. donut says:
    @donut

    Good Luck saves your life . You can do all the right things and someone else can do the opposite but it’s just luck that decides who survives the extinction event meteorite or Pandemic , a world war or a stroll thru the Ghetto . Dig a hole , arm your self , prep for SHTF it’s all just a roll of the dice .

  15. Anon[555] • Disclaimer says:

    I live in Japan. A flu shot is not covered by insurance, but costs about $25. It seems to be a fairly common thing at my doctor’s office to get it around November. I get it. My wife doesn’t. When I get it there are usually others there filing out the consent form when I’m in the office. Japan makes its own domestic vaccines; one year there were two flu vaccines when the first one guessed wrong and they made a quickie second vaccine to include the prevalent flu.

    Unfortunately, it looks like coronavirus is finally taking off in Tokyo, with record new cases for the past three days and a soft lockdown order from the governor.

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna
    , @Anon
  16. Bernard says:

    Steve,
    I’ve been spending a vast amount of my unproductive time trolling the internet in search of macro and micro aggressions against my conservative soul. I found this interesting tidbit and have yet to see anyone comment on it. With all the finger pointing going on, this story is nowhere to be found. New York is exploding with new Coronavirus cases, so who’s to blame ?

    http://www.informationliberation.com/?id=61316

  17. My doctor back in Illinois learned not to ask if I wanted a flu shot. Last time I saw him he was pushing pnuemonia vaccines. I declined. When he would ask if I was ready to quit smoking I would tell him that smoking had become an act of political and social defiance so I would not be quitting anytime soon. Well, a cardiac event a few years ago put an end to my almost thirty year 1 1/2 pack a day smoking habit. I’ve not had a drink or drug for thirty plus years and really don’t miss them. Except in the summer when I used to mow the lawn I always had a hankering for a beer when I was finished. But I still really miss smoking. If I could do it without any deleterious effect on my health I’d go back in a minute.

    So my new Minnesota primary care doc asks me on my first exam about a flu shot. I told him, “You can call me an ignorant hillbilly if you want but I’ve never understood the logic or efficacy of injecting myself with a minute amount of something to keep from catching it. Isn’t that the general principal of homeopathy? And you guys say that’s a bunch of nonsense.” He don’t ask no more about vaccines.

    • Replies: @Anon
    , @J.Ross
    , @Anon
  18. One would think that in trying understand the virus there would be a systematic protocol for evaluating and recording the precise circumstances and cause(s) of death for each person who had the virus and then died. For example, what other infections did they have? Were those other infections a cause or an effect of the coronavirus infection? Would either infection have been sufficient, by itself, to kill the patient? Or was it the cumulative effect?

    Without that kind of data it’s going to be hard to figure out the patterns like whether co-infection with seasonal flu is a major risk factor.

    If we have to guess at the answer by extrapolating from vaccination rates, one data point to take into account is that this year’s seasonal flu vaccine was especially ineffective.

    The United States appears to be experiencing the peak of influenza season and one which featured the earliest start since the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. While vaccination is recommended every year for all individuals aged 6 months or older, the effectiveness of the seasonal influenza vaccine varies annually.

    The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) latest Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report features interim estimates of effectiveness for the 2019-20 seasonal influenza vaccine. According to the report, the overall estimated effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccines is currently 45%. https://www.contagionlive.com/news/how-effective-is-the-201920-flu-shot

  19. Anon[548] • Disclaimer says:

    Does anybody have an idea of what happened to that “teenagers are dying of vaping respitory infections” story that was all over the media in September and October? They were talking about “popcorn lungs” and deaths attributed to teens with ruined infected lungs…….and then…….crickets. Nothing. Was that early misdiagnosed Covid19 or just wrong reporting?
    Lawyers were even running ads for class action law suits against vape companies, and then poof….was gone.

    • Replies: @HA
    , @vhrm
  20. danand says:

    New York is among the 10 states with the lowest vaccination rates, according to federal health data.

    77DB3047-E8B7-4FA2-92F3-7E4DA652AE4F

    https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/imz-managers/coverage/adultvaxview/data-reports/general-population/dashboard/2017.html

    Montana had the lowest rate of vaccinated children at 64%, while Massachusetts had the highest percent at 85.9%.

    • Replies: @DevOps Dad
  21. I haven’t been following the demographic aspect of the outbreak that closely, so this all looks pretty convincing, except:

    Fourth: COVID19 host immune reponse: it causes lymphopenia which means some white blood cells actually go DOWN, which explains why it initially is asymptomatic.

    Other than NK cells, lymphocytes are part of the adaptive immune system, which doesn’t kick in for a few days or a week after an infection. Initial symptoms of viral infections are often common things like fever because they represent a non-specific reaction to the infection. This non-specific reaction is mediated by the innate immune system, which shouldn’t be affected much by a lymphocytopenia that is induced by the infection (ie, doesn’t even exist until the infection is established).

    It ALSO explains why the secondary infections are so terrible (your immune system basically doesn’t stop the initial infection), and why the worst patients start mimicking apparently severe influenza. In particular, influenza often takes you out by causing severe ARDS.

    ARDS is simply a description of a common endpoint of many critical diseases, which often resolve in common ways. The fact that two respiratory infections each cause ARDS should not be significant and does not imply that one is masking the other one.

    It also explains why anti-virals that “work” for influenza don’t work for coronavirus in severe cases — you need a decent immune system to clear out these viruses, and those things don’t work for coronavirus. So you get this double hit, but everyone just classifies it as “coronavirus”.

    We shouldn’t expect anti-virals for influenza to work on other viruses unless those viruses have the specific targets of the antivirals. For example, oseltamivir targets influenza’s neuraminidase, but coronavirus doesn’t use neuraminidase.

    I’m not a doctor, so it’s possible that the commenter has much deeper knowledge and is glossing some things over, leaving someone like myself with shallow knowledge confused. However, to me, he seems to have bungled some immunology 101, virology 101, and pharmacology 101 points, which makes me question whether he’s a doctor. If he’s not a doctor, he still may have hit on something important. However, the lymphocytopenia aspect of his theory, which seems to me pretty central to it, was also present in the earlier SARS outbreaks.
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2004.07.014
    It would be really strange if all the big brains worldwide overlooked the commenter’s theory rather than dismissing it on some transparent grounds when the lymphopenia was predictable. Also, why didn’t the lymphopenia have the similar flu-enhancing effects in the earlier SARS and MERS outbreaks?

    • Replies: @botazefa
  22. Some Guy says:
    @utu

    Vaccination rates of people age 65+:

    Korea 83%
    UK 73%
    US 68%
    Spain 54%
    Italy 53%
    Japan 50%
    France 50%
    Germany 35%
    Turkey 7%
    Estonia 5%

    • Replies: @Anon
    , @epebble
    , @J.Ross
  23. JMcG says:
    @Bill P

    Apart from childhood measles and chicken pox I’ve almost never been sick a day in my life. Nothing more than an occasional head cold. I did have a bad dose of altitude sickness on a Mexican volcano, but that resolved with a return to sea level. I do usually get the flu vaccine. Since my kids have been in school, I’ve been flat on my back in bed twice. That’s in the last eighteen years or so. Once for two days, once for three. The last dose I had a fever so high I was hallucinating. I burned the bedsheets out of spite.

  24. Anonymous[239] • Disclaimer says:

    Trump source on drug cocktail French MD Didier Raoult now has a twitter page

    Twitter.com/Raoult_Didier

    This guy has a long distinguished career. He is a boomer with rock n roll hair very compelling speaker in the videos.

    The vid yesterday 3/24 has subtitles (click on icon next to volume icon at the lower right).

    In this video he’s saying the death rate is in line with other serious respiratory illness in a French typical flu season. He is not alarmed. He’s lost only a few patients and they are all elderly comorbid cases.

    You can see why the American left only attacks his study and not ad hominem the man because he comes across as highly credible.

    He has a wiki also and it’s impressive…

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Didier_Raoult

    • Replies: @bjondo
    , @vhrm
    , @Steve Richter
  25. @AnotherGuessModel

    I don’t know. I’ve seen some reports that vaccination can upregulate parts of the immune system in non-specific ways that could actually make you more resistant to some viral infections. I think they are experimenting in some places with giving people TB vaccines for this purpose. Don’t run out and get a TB vaccine on this advice, though. Do some research yourself.

    I don’t know enough about vaccinations, but if they don’t interfere with each other (ie., it’s okay to take multiple ones concurrently), it seems like influenza and pneumococcal vaccines would be good things for at-risk groups to get.

  26. This is directly for commenter Visionary:

    Traditionally, seasonal flu vaccines are ineffective vs all types of influenza. They are good at preventing the most current strain of seasonal flu, but if a patient were to become infected with another strain of flu that the vaccine does not protect vs, well, they’re basically out of luck.

    Also, without directly touching upon it: The trick is for an adult to maintain a healthy/above average immune system throughout their lives. Obviously this would render seasonal flu shots unnecessary.

    After all, there are many in the US that never receive a seasonal flu vaccine and yet never become infected with the flu at all for decades. Why is this? To ask the question is of course to answer it: These people have healthy immune systems. It is unfortunate that the stereotype of the medical profession persists, namely, to encourage people to get annual flu vaccines, (and other medications) rather than to strengthen one’s immune system on their own, which most healthy people can do thru proper diet, exercise, etc. It isn’t in the medical professions best interests to constantly disclose that information, because then they don’t directly benefit.

    What is not being said is that vaccines are worthless. What IS being said is that oftentimes, an ounce of prevention doesn’t always involve medication when simpler remedies are available, such as maintaining a healthy immune system throughout one’s life (which is the key to fighting off infectious viruses such as colds, flu, pneumonia, etc). After all, a flu vaccine does not particularly strengthen one’s immune system, nor protect it against all strains of the flu. As noted before, there are countless examples of ordinary Americans who have never received a flu shot in their adult life, and yet, they don’t get infected with the flu, due to having a fairly strong immune system to begin with (which of course renders a flu shot unnecessary). Having a healthy immune system and taking care to maintain it throughout one’s life also would suggest that instead of getting the flu or a severe respiratory infection, about the worst that one might pick up would be the common cold, which, depending upon a person’s immune system, would not tend to last very long, as opposed to others with unnaturally weakened immune systems.

    What is most interesting in this analysis by Visionary, is that for most people, one’s immune system holds the key to staying healthy. The healthier one is, the less likely he needs to receive a vaccine, which can’t protect vs every infectious strain (not the least of which is COVID-19). It also still remains that the ones who are receiving a sizable proportion of the Corona infections are the elderly (as they also remain a large proportion of those infected who die from COVID-19).

    Thus the paradox: The elderly are fairly regularly immunized with the flu vaccine, even though they’re the ones more likely to die from the pandemic. The younger cohorts may indeed be among the higher percentages of the infected; they are not, however, among the higher numbers of the dead. Reason being, as before, the younger cohorts tend to have stronger immune systems. Keeping one’s immune system strong the natural way, through diet, exercise, etc. will tend to be more than sufficient for most Americans (assuming no preexisting condition, of course), and not having to rely every season on a vaccine which cannot prevent all strains of the flu, much less vs COVID-19, and certainly does not in any way strengthen one’s immune system.

    Furthermore, it has been well established in addition to having an elderly population, Northern Italy also has a fairly large number of Chinese immigrants, some of which returned to Wuhan province during the initial outbreak of COVID-19.

    The fact that NYC is apparently receiving the bulk of new COVID-19 infections suggest not only that there is a fairly significant elderly population there, but also 8.4 million people crowded into an area of only about 300 square miles. Close proximity of diverse (diversity) populations and the results shouldn’t really be all that surprising. Of course NYC would tend to think that because something occurred in their backyard, that obviously it will infect the rest of the US at the same rate. Not necessarily. Not every US city was equally affected during the Spanish Flu pandemic. And people’s immune systems have only improved since a century ago, judging by the increased lifespans of Americans.

    Therefore, keep your immune systems healthy if you can. And for the most part, you should be okay.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  27. US Military has universal influenza vaccination and a young demographic. Of course, they would have lower rates of pre-existing conditions like diabetes, obesity, and whatnot.

    But you could use them as a point of comparison to the general population.

    Other possible difference: They live in close quarters, work in close quarters, and associate heavily with each other after work hours, too.

  28. J Stone says:

    One person with EHR access in one hospital system probably could rule out or lend weight to this hypothesis by checking if there’s a significant association between poor clinical outcome for COVID-19 and not having had a flu vaccination this season.

    • Agree: reactionry
  29. I am using this child’s name because his death was big news here in WNY. Luca Calani was a healthy, active 11 year old boy who died from complications of seasonal flu. Luca had his flu shot. So, flu morphs or maybe are misindentified or a misdiagnosis, but the result can be deadly. I had a flu and pneumonia shot both on the same day, different arms. I was really sick the next day, but better in two days. Worth it I guess.

  30. Also, my understanding is that influenza is a major source of ICU cases. Regardless of whether influenza increases mortality from Covid19, it seems reducing influenza cases would be a great way to flatten the curve.

    My wife is on medication that has the side effect of reducing immune response, and typically has a bad time during cold and flu season. It would be nice if everybody would get the flu vaccine and help people like her.

  31. Anonymous[239] • Disclaimer says:

    Hey Rand Paul supporters!

    PLEASE TWEET THIS ACCOUNT …

    twitter.com/raoult_didier

    TO SEN. PAUL HERE ….

    twitter.com/randpaul

    Rand Paul has compromised lungs from the vicous attack by his psycho neighbor and a positive CV test. Let’s get him cognizant of the Didier Raoult prescribed regimen details early. Raoult says early treatment is crucial……..

    Now is a good time because Rand is quarantined and bored. He is watching Ivanka videos (probably good for your ballz and a lot more eye candy than the Didier Raoult videos —– but nowhere near as informative!)

  32. Ragno says:

    Ordinarily I wouldn’t have gone to this extent but I doubled up this year: got a flu shot last fall and a pneumonia flu shot ten days ago (they frown on giving them to anyone under 65, but there’s no problem if your doctor will write you a prescription for one; and mine wrote me one gladly since it lightened his in-office patient load).

    My thinking was, like chicken soup, it couldn’t hurt and might help; but if gets me through the Wuhan flu in one piece (I’m 60, with COPD) and allocates an already-overburdened health-care industry one additional bed and/or ventilator, it’ll be the best $35 I ever spent.

  33. Coemgen says:

    It’s not new news but this type of concern would explain the Chinese brutal martial law and the western desperation to respond to the Chinese COVID-19 virus:

    https://nypost.com/2020/02/19/whistleblower-doctors-say-coronavirus-reinfection-even-deadlier/

    Remember the original COVID-19 “whistleblower” Dr Li Wen Liang? He was 36 years old when he succumbed to the virus. Was he the one-in-a-million young person killed by the virus or, does Occam’s Razor apply: He died from an autoimmune response due to a reinfection.

    Until proven otherwise, go with Mr Occam.

    Btw, why aren’t we seeing “curves” predicting where this pandemic can go?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    , @Corn
  34. Here’s my question. Is it possible that flu shots were more effective in this country 20 and 30 years ago when we had a less transient population? It seems like the “oh, they mixed the wrong strains together” to explain high failure rates might be missing that there could really be more strains in a part of the country now, including ones that fly by meaningful identifying. There are parts of the country that even in the 1990’s had far less legal and illegal migration to introduce more strains to the population. Has anyone analyzed something like this?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  35. @Bill P

    Your post and the responses so far certainly argue in favor of keeping schools closed for the duration. Unfortunately in our Brave New World most families require two working parents to pay the mortgage or rent. Come to think of it, in our Brave New World many families don’t even have two parents any more.

    • Replies: @Ganderson
  36. @Anon

    To what degree is that an artifact of testing, I wonder. Japan seems like the sort of place that would really ramp up testing (as the USA is, finally) and according to worldometers Japan’s only had 45 deaths so far. How is the trend of deaths, in raw numbers?

    Thanks to increased testing, the USA is about to pass Italy in terms of ‘cases’ but we’ve still logged fewer than 1000 deaths. Wish it would stay that way.

    Note to STEVE: My post responding to J.Ross included a synopsis of Pelosi’s Wish List and hence got caught up in the auto-filter. Just FYI. I did use the MORE tag. https://www.unz.com/isteve/so-uh-what-just-happened/#comment-3795121

    • Replies: @Anon
  37. @grim prognosis

    Maoism probably was good for keeping the vast Chinese respiratory virus machine cut off from much of the world for a few decades.

  38. e says:
    @Buffalo Joe

    Flu shots do not contain a live virus. Perhaps you’re allergic to a substance in the vaccines.

  39. Anon[205] • Disclaimer says:
    @Some Guy

    Thanks for providing this intriguing set of data. So there appears to be a correlation between people who’ve received the flu shot and those who’ve contacted COVID-19?

    If so, I’m not surprised.

  40. danand says:

    SACRAMENTO – The California Department of Public Health today announced the most recent statistics on COVID-19. California now has 2,535 confirmed cases. The increase in testing numbers reported today largely come from commercial, provider and academic labs that have increased testing capacity and are now reporting that data to the state. The biggest labs included in this count include Quest, LabCorp, Kaiser, University of California and Stanford. For more information on COVID-19 and California’s response visit the California Department of Public Health website.

    Note: The following numbers reflect information received by local health jurisdictions as of 2 p.m. PDT March 24.

    2,535 – Positive cases 53 – Deaths (including one non-California resident)

    707 – Community-acquired cases
    1,828 – Cases acquired through person-to-person transmission, travel (including cruise ship passengers), repatriation, or under investigation.
    This includes 35 health care workers.

    Ages of all confirmed positive cases:

    Age 0-17: 37 cases
    Age 18-49: 1,278 cases
    Age 50-64: 638 cases
    Age 65+: 562 cases
    Unknown: 20 cases

    Gender of all confirmed positive cases:

    Female: 1,117 cases
    Male: 1,389 cases
    Unknown: 29 cases

    As of 2 p.m. PDT on March 24, approximately 66,800 tests had been conducted in California. This includes the latest numbers California has received from commercial and private labs and the 22 state and county health labs that are currently testing. At least 18,276 results have been received and another 48,600 are pending.

    https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/OPA/Pages/New-Release-2020.aspx

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    , @Mr McKenna
  41. Anonymous[367] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anon

    You are a moron

    • Replies: @Anon
    , @Anon
  42. Stealth says:

    I’m virus illiterate, so please forgive the following question (if it’s stupid):

    Does Coronavirus compromise its victim’s immune system long term?

    • Replies: @epebble
    , @Ragno
    , @vhrm
  43. Anonymous[367] • Disclaimer says:
    @Buffalo Joe

    Maybe he died from another virus

  44. @Bernard

    That was actually pretty funny. Like the “Bring in more immigrants now!” but wait…hey, did you just rape and kill my daughter?” folks, liberals and progressives do in a sense have that “mental illness” Michael Savage ascribes to them. They somehow feel like they have to “stick it to the man” on anything and everything. Like the Ramones song, “I’m against it”. Even if it hurts them or others.

    If Ann Coulter tweeted “Drinking Drano is a culturally depraved act you’d see in places like Honduras or Liberia”, libs/progs would be tweeting and Instagram’n pics and vids of them kegging it like freshman year. They’re that reactive, emotional and dumb.

  45. HA says:
    @Anon

    ” They were talking about “popcorn lungs” and deaths attributed to teens with ruined infected lungs…….and then…….crickets. :

    Ah, more of the China-troll-factory meme that Corvinus was spreading a few days ago, the purpose of which is to make people believe that the virus originated in the US and was behind those vaping deaths. I’m guessing they consider Ron Unz’s efforts towards that similar end to have been lackluster, so far, and in need of reinforcement.

    I can’t find anything much about this on any “epidemiological” scale:

    As of [Jan 2020], there had been 2,602 cases of the illness and 57 deaths in the U.S. Those who’ve died have been between ages 15 and 75, with a median age of 51, The Times reported.

    So, less than 100 deaths spread out over who knows how many months? If that was coronavirus, one needs to explain why it was singling out vapers, and also why it suddenly started mowing down people in Asia by the thousands starting in December if it was around for so long in the US without killing more than a few dozen.

    Ah, who cares? The goal is to spread confusion and doubt, so the fact that the story doesn’t hold up is secondary.

    Or else, I guess this story also implicitly makes the case that Americans are immunological supermen, given that diseases that kill thousands overseas kill less than a hundred here. I sense a Chimpokomon sales-pitch coming on:

    • Replies: @BenKenobi
    , @obwandiyag
  46. @dearieme

    One way toward public health is to abolish government:
    https://www.lewrockwell.com/political-theatre/crimson-contagion/
    Thanks again, Fort Detriment. That ol’ Lyme disease y’all cooked up really limits where I walk these days: https://americanpolicy.org/agenda21/
    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/03/yvonne-lorenzo/a-pandemic-movie-as-predictive-programming/ Don’t touch that dial.

  47. @anonymous

    OT: Trump officials especially Peter Navarro need to shut up with the grievance and focus on getting supplies. Navarro in the NYT saying he will take medical supplies from China as long as commies don’t end up looking good.

    An alternative view:

    Tariffs Work
    By Tom Piatak

    How high should the tariffs be on these medical supplies? Is 25% enough? How about 50%? 100%?

  48. Coemgen says:
    @Steve Sailer

    No “hockey stick curves” on the local news/PBS/etc for the pandemic (I don’t have cable TV). Yet, there’s been plenty of “curves” and “science” on aerial TV regarding climate models.

    Pandemics are much simpler to model than global climate. I wrote a pandemic model for a programming 101 or 102 class many years ago. I wouldn’t even consider trying to write a global climate model due to its complexity.

    Someone sharp enough to give us a rigorous climate model should find a pandemic model a “slam dunk.”

    Of course, pandemic models can be much more easily proven wrong than climate models …

    • Replies: @Coemgen
  49. Somewhat relevant influenza new this morning here in Hong Kong:

    Coronavirus measures help Hong Kong flu season end early

    The flu season here has been declared competely over. The social distancing/masks regimen in place here since late January completely throttled its spread.

    If there is some kind of interaction between the flu and Coronavirus, knocking the flu out of the equation sure can’t hurt.

    Still, 113 people died of the flu here in this season, way down from 356 last year.

    Hong Kong’s current COVID-19 death toll, for the sake of comparison: 4.

    But because of all the imported cases in the past week, we’re also being promised more UK/USA-style crackdowns on social interactions. All through this virus crisis, HK’s restaurants and stores have remained open. That may be changing soon.

  50. Coemgen says:
    @Coemgen

    and there may be some resistance to pandemic models due to the concept of “border” being an extremely important variable.

  51. epebble says:
    @Stealth

    Easy answer, though I am also virus illiterate. Since the Covid-19 virus is only 3 month old (in humans), we won’t know the answer till “long term” has passed. I don’t know what is your definition of “long term”, but I am fairly certain it hasn’t passed. I think we may get some preliminary answer after looking at next years data (Summer 2021).

  52. anon[225] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anon

    Since you are anonymous, would you mind telling a little bit about yourself – education and occupation (and which country you are from)? I am curious to know what demographics holds these types of opinions.

    • LOL: Daniel Williams
    • Replies: @Anon
  53. BenKenobi says:
    @HA

    Are you saying the purpose of Covid is to destroy the evil power?

    • Replies: @HA
  54. Newspapers should really be publishing the names of Corona Chan victims, and their ages.

    100 years ago, papers did this stuff routinely. Usually in the first 30 words of the story. But now patient privacy extends long after you’re dead, even though there is significant public benefit to names and ages.

    Maybe you have to read between the lines. Today, the NY Times went to a hospital in Elmhurst, Queens to describe the horror of 13 people dying. Elmhurst is the Asian capital of NYC. Naturally no names were released. But since it’s Elmhurst, I’m gonna go ahead and guess that a certain lactose-intolerant population was overrepresented. But that’s not news fit to print. Might interrupt the lockdown narrative.

  55. @The Last Real Calvinist

    “If there is some kind of interaction between the flu and Coronavirus, knocking the flu out of the equation sure can’t hurt.”

    And with April coming on, the traditional month of warmer weather coming to most of the US, as well as the ending of the traditional flu season, the flu is soon due to be KO’ed.

  56. anon[219] • Disclaimer says:
    @Bernard

    With all the finger pointing going on, this story is nowhere to be found. New York is exploding with new Coronavirus cases, so who’s to blame ?

    Drumpf and the Deplorables, I’m sure. The whipping boys of the current year.
    Possible name for a retro cover band, too.

  57. @Buffalo Joe

    Welcome back, Buffalo Joe! It’s been at least half a year, right? I’m glad to see you writing comments again, and I’m sure others will be too.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
  58. Clearly the vulnerability of older people to corona virus has something to do with reduced immune response. In the US older people, i.e. Medicare recipients are given a double dose of flu vaccine, because, apparently the single dose may not do the trick.

    https://medicare.com/coverage/medicare-and-flu-shots/

    If any of these apply to you, you may be at higher risk:

    Individuals under age 2 or age 65 and over
    Residents of nursing homes or long term care facilities
    Pregnant women and women who have recently given birth
    American Indians and Native Alaskans
    People with certain health conditions including asthma, chronic lung or heart disease, neurological disorders, blood disorders, diabetes, diseases of the liver/

  59. @dearieme

    The actual effectiveness research on the flu vaccine shows it to have a barely perceptible impact. There are many strains of flu and the vaccine makers are always having to guess which ones will be the majors in the flu season.

    The problem with vaccines is that we never safety test them against a no-treatment control group (i.e. saline injection). Vaccines are safety tested against other vaccines or against an antigen free version of the vaccine (just the adjuvants).

    Modern vaccines are complex bioscience. A vaccine must simultaneously provoke an immune response and present an attenuated version of a pathogen. Simply presenting a small amount of pathogen will not trigger an antibody response in the body; the vaccine needs to cause an immune system triggering inflammation response. Getting that right is difficult.

    But what if the that artificially triggered immune response has adverse side effects? For example, who is to say that when you trigger the immune system to respond to a very small antigen exposure that it also doesn’t respond to other things in the environment that the patient might encounter at the same time, like pollen or peanuts. In fact, we know there is a correlation between allergies and vaccinations. They are listed as a potential side effect in the vaccine insert.

    Without testing vaccine safety against a no-treatment control group we have no idea what side effects the vaccines are causing. It would be nice to know what we were trading for the benefits of vaccines. It would also help improve the safety and efficacy of vaccines for everyone.

    • Thanks: vhrm
  60. epebble says:
    @anonymous

    This one makes a sad reading: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/23/us-medical-supplies-coronavirus-appeal-aid/

    USA begs and China donates; I think these times may be transformational in the “New World Order”.

    • Replies: @BenKenobi
    , @anon
  61. @Redneck farmer

    Redneck, don’t forget, and implement a hard-core Socialist state. I would say that that’s been the plan, but these people are too stupid to have plans. It’s just working out very well for them – the Socialist’s 9/11.

    Oh, and, as usual, Ann Coulter agrees with me. She asks how do we flatten the curve on panic?

    • Replies: @HA
  62. Anon[205] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous

    You’re entitled to your opinion. I’m quit happy with my decisions as I’m almost 40 and in perfect health. Heart rate of 40 BPM, BMI of 22, competing at the elite level in endurance and adventure sports, and haven’t been sick at all in over 10 years. Also, I don’t have any underlying conditions and my labwork is immaculate. Furthermore, I tested within the past year to have 20/20 vision.

    I practice an all natural and hollistic lifestyle in addition to consuming a raw diet for three years. Currently vegan as I’m fasting because I’m an Eastern Orthodox Christian. I only consume water, black coffee, and organic herbal tea.

    Enjoy your heart disease, cancer, asthma, diabetes, obesity, and dependace on corporate-gov heathcare. 🙂

    I don’t know one person who supports flu shots and all of these people are extremely healthy and fit. I only surround myself with people who live active, healthy lifestyles and are fervent supportors of natural living.

  63. In response to this discussion let us give more money to Corporation for Public Broadcasting, repeal all voter I.D. laws and subsidize more windmill farms.

    Now what were you saying about saving lives, or something ?

  64. @HA

    You disbelieve the Fort Detrick story because you don’t like it. Very scientific.

    • Replies: @HA
  65. Anon[205] • Disclaimer says:
    @anon

    Sure, but with stipulations.

    European-American
    Caucasian
    Educated at three global top 50 universities (two outside of the United States, including one in the global top 10)
    Professional Services; self-employed with an established business
    Extensive background in competitive athletics
    Well traveled
    Lived in multiple states and metros, including ones with a couple thousand residents to ones with near 10 million residents
    Grew up lower middle class
    Nonconformist
    Nationalist/Traditionalist
    Former Roman Catholic, convert to the Eastern Orthodox Church

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna
  66. Does a Flu Vaccination Help Save Your Life?

    Does a gang? I go to Rio:

    “Gangs in the Rio de Janeiro favelas have enforced a lockdown from 8pm tonight. The statement reads: ‘If the government won’t do the right thing, organised crime will’”

    https://mobile.twitter.com/AndrewCesare/status/1242174265547468803?s=20

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ET0W57DXkAAt8Ry?format=jpg&name=small

    • LOL: Kylie
  67. @danand

    dan, thank you and there should be more information like this available to the public. California also has over 39 million citizens plus who knows how many “guests.”

  68. Ragno says:
    @Stealth

    Seeing how it didn’t exist until last December or so…..we’re going to find out shortly.

  69. Lurker says:

    I’ve never had the Flu vaccination but I’ve never had Flu either*. So maybe some sort of immunity? I hope!

    *At least not anything that fells you for days at a time.

  70. @Sideshow Bob

    The actual effectiveness research on the flu vaccine shows it to have a barely perceptible impact. There are many strains of flu and the vaccine makers are always having to guess which ones will be the majors in the flu season.

    Here are the official CDC numbers for flu vaccine effectiveness for the past 15 years:

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/past-seasons-estimates.html

    10-60%….wow…what an ironclad guarantee of protection!

    Anyone that has a basic understanding of science realizes that using Australia as a predictor for the North American flu season is tarded and fucked up…

    Kick ass.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    , @Sideshow Bob
  71. @Anon

    I’m quit happy with my decisions as I’m almost 40 and in perfect health. Heart rate of 40 BPM, BMI of 22, competing at the elite level in endurance and adventure sports, and haven’t been sick at all in over 10 years. Also, I don’t have any underlying conditions and my labwork is immaculate. Furthermore, I tested within the past year to have 20/20 vision.

    I really need to get off the IPA/Scotch diet….

  72. Vaccine derived virus interference was significantly associated with coronavirus and human metapneumovirus;

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31607599

    • Replies: @Anon
  73. botazefa says:
    @Chrisnonymous

    ARDS is simply a description of a common endpoint of many critical diseases, which often resolve in common ways. The fact that two respiratory infections each cause ARDS should not be significant and does not imply that one is masking the other one.

    I don’t think you are correct about ARDS. My recollection is ARDS is caused primarily by heavy positive pressure ventilation.

    ARDS is relatively rare:

    https://www.rightdiagnosis.com/a/adult_respiratory_distress_syndrome/stats.htm

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
  74. @Bragadocious

    But since it’s Elmhurst, I’m gonna go ahead and guess that a certain lactose-intolerant population was overrepresented. But that’s not news fit to print. Might interrupt the lockdown narrative.

    It would certainly make a lot of people wonder what so many old and sick Orientals were doing here, exactly.

    • Replies: @LoutishAngloQuebecker
  75. epebble says:
    @Some Guy

    And I am sure the Vaccination rates are low for people in South {America, Asia, Africa} as is the near absence of Covid-19 infections/deaths. That seems to run counter to the theory that Flu Vaccination helps (in preventing/reducing the severity of Covid-19).

  76. BenKenobi says:
    @epebble

    USA begs and China donates

    “The People’s State of Guatemala,” said the newspapers on January 26, “declines the request of the United States for the loan of a thousand tons of steel.”
    – Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

    While we’re on the subject: there’s a gay bar here in Vancouver called The Fountainhead.

  77. bjondo says:
    @Anonymous

    This guy has a long distinguished career. He is a boomer with rock n roll hair very compelling speaker in the videos.

    Let’s hear for rock n roll hair.

    Didier Raoult, infectious disease specialist and star defender of the controversial use of chloroquine against the coranavirus, is a specialist in terrorism as well as a fervent supporter of the IDF

    https://www.veteranstoday.com/2020/03/25/world-chloroquine-production-controlled-by-israeli-bio-terrorism-forces/

    5 dancing shlomos

  78. @Anon

    I feel you, bro. I actually am forty and and I’m in better-than-perfect health.

    Thanks to my years of international-level adventure sports, my heart only beats when I want it to—usually when I am practicing Aikido, which I am a master of.

    Not only have I never been sick, but sick people who have been around me are often found to have become well. In fact, my eyedocter recently removed his glasses—while examining me!—and was astonished to find that I had somehow cured his myopia.

    I shit rarely, and it is a scentless issue (similar to that produced by a rabbit). Women I have fucked report that the experience is transcendent, similar to how people describe the effects of certain powerful drugs.

  79. Anon[205] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous

    On second thought, perhaps you’re employed by Big Pharma and are angry with people like myself, who are exposing the evil within your ranks in addition to suppressing your profits?

    Healthcare shouldn’t be about profits but rather about making people healthy. Ever notice all of the ads and commercials for new pharmaceuticals rather than advocating for preventive measures?

    A spade is a spade.

  80. @Anon

    I’ve never gotten a flu shot either, but that won’t surprise anybody here, because I often make a fool of myself, especially lately here.

    I am a couple of decades older than you, and I have always eaten and done whatever I like. I lived an extended adolescence, er, bachelorhood, during which I slept around and tried whatever substances were handed to me at parties. I am now the most handsome, charming, witty fellow probably in the entire world, a perfect physical specimen, and the most modest by far.

    Whether or not this blissful existence is a result of never letting anyone convince me to get a flu shot, or womanizing until I was your age, or eating and imbibing whatever I want, I am not sure.

    BTW, my manly sport has always mostly been mountain climbing and backpacking (and of course occasional skiing, but that’s evil now) so excuse me if I scoff at your endurance sports. As for religion, I am a deist and would never be so gullible as to convert to any religion that would force me to sit and watch a man in a robe go around swinging his incense burner.

    To each his own, you godlike creature you. Go eat your raw vegetables. I’m going to pour some more bourbon after I finish my potato chips.

    • LOL: iffen
    • Replies: @Ragno
  81. @Bragadocious

    Elmhurst is not the Asian capital of NYC. You might be thinking of Flushing.

    It is, however, full of Hispanic illegals, who clog Elmhurst Hospital ER every day. They are not shy about using it for any minor ailment.

    • Replies: @Anon
  82. HA says:
    @obwandiyag

    “You disbelieve the Fort Detrick story because you don’t like it.”

    Yeah, and the reason I don’t like it is that it has large, gaping holes in it, in terms of timeline and severity — which I already noted — in comparison to the wet-market theory that no one outside of Chinese Communists and their current crop of useful idiots has much of a problem with. That’s scientific enough.

    I can see why you’re so uncomfortable with the wet-market Wuhan-origin theory, given its similarities to the bushmeat trade that got AIDS into the human population, but you need to work that out on your own end (so to speak).

    • Agree: BenKenobi
  83. Bernard says:
    @Bernard

    “New York City Councilman Mark Levine (D-NY) last month praised the “huge crowds” that gathered in Chinatown on Feb 9 in “defiance” of the “coronavirus scare” for a Lunar New Year parade.

    “In powerful show of defiance of #coronavirus scare, huge crowds gathering in NYC’s Chinatown for ceremony ahead of annual #LunarNewYear parade. Chants of ‘be strong Wuhan!’” Levine tweeted. “If you are staying away, you are missing out!””

    And sadly for our hero, things didn’t turn out as planned.

    Mark D. Levine
    @MarkLevineNYC
    · Mar 23, 2020
    Some personal news: I have a fever and a dry cough. I’m assuming that it’s coronavirus.

    I’ll continue sheltering at home and will be resting as much as possible. My family are thankfully well and we’re all in good spirits.

    And needless to say I won’t be seeking a test. 😉

    • LOL: Tusk
  84. Ragno says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Never encountered any actual Nietzschean golden supermen ’til I signed onto the Internet. Where thousands of them reside.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
  85. @danand

    What? Only 29 cases of “unknown” gender??

    For shame, California, for shame. You’re slacking off.

    • Replies: @Daniel Williams
  86. @Ragno

    It’s great, isn’t it?

  87. @Daniel Williams

    Yeah, but you don’t practice a “hollistic lifestyle in addition to consuming a raw diet.” If you did you would shit diamonds.

  88. Remember the reports that our soldiers in the 1991 Gulf invasion were less likely to die than their colleagues who stayed Stateside, thanks to the effects of accidents, crime, substance abuse, bad diet, etc, on the latter?

    Here we go again:

    Coronavirus: American children are dying because of quarantine, doctors warn

  89. @Buzz Mohawk

    If you did you would shit diamonds.

    Thanks to my outrageous abs, I already can. I just have to eat a lot of graphite first.

  90. @Mr McKenna

    What? Only 29 cases of “unknown” gender?? For shame, California, for shame. You’re slacking off.

    That raises a funny question: do states that allow THEY/THEM on drivers licences allow it on death certificates? Are there non-binary corpses?

  91. @botazefa

    I don’t know what you learned in the past, but you linked to an article about Adult Respiratory Distress Syndrome, whereas ARDS in the context of flu and COVID-19 is Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome, something different. I’m not a doctor, but I’m standing by previous statement. A response to ventilation is still a common endpoint for multiple respiratory diseases inasmuch as those respiratory diseases require ventilation for treatment.

  92. vhrm says:
    @Anon

    afaik what happened is that all that hype was due to people vaping black market THC cartridges with vitamin E oil in them.

    I assume people stopped doing that once the issue was identified and the problem stopped.

  93. vhrm says:
    @Anonymous

    I think you have to check the wikipedia page more closely. He’s literally Hitler:

    In October 2013, Raoult published a letter in the French magazine Le Point strongly criticizing the forecasting ability of climate models.[74]

    He was undoubtedly also unwantedly grabbing someone’s butt (or at least thinking about it) while writing that letter and will be #balancetonporc’ed tout de suite.

  94. J.Ross says:
    @Some Guy

    A gold box for Some Guy‘s comment (currently #23), fashioned from the dead body of the original proposal.
    One good thing which might come out of all this is violent anger toward medicine, “public health,” and people who want to use a declared public health crisis to talk about human trafficking amnesty and the fuel efficiency of airline engines.

  95. J.Ross says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    Came up top today: despite the ideal car traffic, so many vectors bumbled and burbled along the sidewalks, socializing loudly, and wearing no mask like the Yellow King, that I feared hitting one.
    What quarantine?

  96. vhrm says:
    @Stealth

    What the other guys say it’s true: we don’t know.

    But there’s no reason to suspect that it will impact immune systems long term. It really is like other cold and flu viruses.

    Only long term effects reported so far is that, for some of the people who get the bad pneumonia it causes long term lung damage. maybe permanent.

  97. Anon[195] • Disclaimer says:
    @Mr McKenna

    I haven’t seen anything on the Japanese news about increased testing or testing capacity.

    The floodgates broke today after yesterday’s soft lockdown by the Tokyo governor. All the governors of adjacent prefectures had press conferences this morning, not wanting to appear to lag. I haven’t been shopping, but the news coverage shows empty food shelves. Up to now that’s been limited to masks, hand sanitizer (both still MIA), and toilet paper (now back on shelves).

    It’s clear that if infection figures double within the week, a regional hard lockdown will happen, although not at Italian/French levels.

    NEWS FLASH!: There’s a ski connection to Prince Charles. Japanese news showed him at some sort of recent meeting at a narrow table sitting directly opposite Prince Albert II of Monaco, famous Covid-19-infected ski bum.

  98. Bonner Tal says: • Website

    The rate of co-infections of flu and Covid-19 should be much lower than the rate of either. If severe cases were due to such co-infections we wouldn’t see an exponential ramp up of cases, hospitalisations and deaths. The spread would be limited due to the low R0 of the flu (1.3) and the necessity (and low probability) of contracting both.

    The different age biases are probably due to the specifics of the initial spread and will wash out to a certain degree.

    • Agree: eugyppius
  99. Bill James was an economics major in college, so it’s not as if he was a complete neophyte doing this. He was also an English major, so I’m sure that helped when writing his books.

    The more interesting thing about his career is that he was originally an English teacher. He flamed out so badly at this that he had to support himself as the night watchman at the pork-and-beans cannery. I wish he would talk more about this period of his life, but I can see why children wouldn’t like him. Most adults don’t like him.

  100. Anon[195] • Disclaimer says:
    @Enemy of Earth

    The claims of homeopathy and vaccination have no relation to one another. Vaccines create antibodies to viruses.

  101. Lot says:

    CV Panic!

    US deaths pass 1000.
    Spain 738 new deaths.
    German exceptionalism disappearing, deaths increase by 34% in a day (148 to 198), cases increase by 5000 in a day.
    Russia suspends all international flights.

    I think this may be a bear market rally we’ve had the past couple days.

    Our overly leveraged and financialized economy I don’t think can take a sudden 25% year over year decline in economic activity. Localized crashes in real estate sent us into a deep recession in 2007-8. Now we have a worldwide shutdown.

    There’s no cure for AIDS or the common cold, I don’t think CV is going to be much different.

    China’s 2 months of totalitarian lockdown and eagerness to reopen everything still has 29% of its small businesses closed. And that’s before the collapse of demand for its exports starts to really bite.

  102. Anon[325] • Disclaimer says:

    OT: Brenton Tarrant has ‘suddenly pled guilty to shooting 51 people at Christchurch.’ Because of Covid-19, the defendant and his lawyers appeared via a video link. No members of the public were allowed in the courtroom, and none of the victims or their families were allowed in either because of the virus.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52044013

    Does anyone find this weird? When I saw the video, I thought it was a really bad fake. I saw bullets bouncing right off people without leaving a wound, blood, or even a hole in clothing, despite some (if rather fuzzy) closeups. There were a whole list of things wrong with the video that made me very skeptical of it.

    The supposed shooting happened March 15, 2019. It’s been an entire year, and Tarrant hasn’t even gone to trial yet. Wiki says the trial was supposed to be scheduled June 2, 2020, three more months from now. I dunno, is it usual to wait more than an entire year to bring a mass murderer up for trial? Especially if the evidence consists of the guy filming himself shooting people, even showing his own face to ID him? That’s what a DA would call a slam dunk win on clear evidence of guilt in a courtroom. So why wasn’t Tarrant tried promptly? There was no need to dawdle.

    Unless, of course, it’s all a fake.

    I am not given to conspiracy theories, but this time I am very skeptical. I think Covid-19 is being taken advantage of by that crooked PM Jacinda Ardern, so she can have her fake trial and try to get the fake killer out of the public eye.

    • Replies: @BenKenobi
    , @anon
  103. Anon[969] • Disclaimer says:
    @PiltdownMan

    Black Lives Matter!

  104. Xavier B says:

    Interessant idea but probably wrong.

    A recent study on DOD personnel showed an increased of coronavirus infections among those vaccinated against the flu (+36 % !)

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31607599

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  105. Lot says:

    New Stay at Home orders past day: MN, ID, CO.

    Unemployment claims: 1 million in California since March 13.

    Columbus Dispatch:

    “ Last week, the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services reported that claims for unemployment filed between Sunday and Thursday had reached nearly 140,000, up from fewer than 5,000 during the same period a week earlier.”

    Kevin Drum’s chart showing Italian death progression compared with other countries:

    This suggests German death rate exceptionalism hasn’t got much longer. Switzerland and France are exactly on the Italian trendline, Spain is worse.

    • Replies: @PiltdownMan
  106. anon[156] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anon

    The claims of homeopathy and vaccination have no relation to one another.

    Thank you for your medical input Mr random anon on the internet.

  107. @Xavier B

    Thanks.

    Let me point out that this study from cold and flu season of 2017-2018 is of the old coronaviruses, not our novel one. So, it’s not an apples to apples comparison, but it is informative.

    • Replies: @Xavier B
  108. Anon[325] • Disclaimer says:
    @Old Hickory

    I was considering a last-minute flu shot (if they have any left), but the abstract says a flu vaccine could interfere with body’s ability to fight off coronaviruses and human metapneumovirus, though it’s supposed to be good for various types of flu, RSV, and parainfluenza, of course.

    Since a coronavirus + pneumonia is the main trouble to be avoided right, now, I think I’ll skip the flu shot (except for maybe early in the coming Fall).

    I suspect a recent vaccination ‘distracts’ the immune system so that it’s busy making antibodies to the viruses in the shot, and it might be taken by surprise and overwhelmed if a coronavirus suddenly surged into the body. The immune system would be forced to switch gears and have to make new antibodies to a secondary infection while it thinks it’s supposed to be mainly concerned with a primary infection. So the immune system might fail to allocate enough resources to fight the second infection from the coronavirus, especially if it mistakenly identifies the coronavirus as just another common cold before it realizes this is something entirely new.

    Is it possible it’s not flu shots saving elderly people’s lives in the US, but the pneumonia vaccine? We tend to push it on the elderly.

  109. Anon[325] • Disclaimer says:

    Here’s a link for a survey of elderly people (over 65) in the US who say they’ve had a pneumonia vaccine. The numbers are surprisingly high. I’m seeing a ton of samples in states in the 70% range. I hadn’t realized we give the pneumonia vaccine to that many people.

    It may be the pneumonia vaccine that’s saving people’s butts right now from Covid-19 complications and not the flu vaccine. Important Note: New York is the very BOTTOM state on the list, with only Puerto Rico and Guam of worse off. Hawaii is third from bottom. Florida is 6th from bottom. Louisana is 7th from bottom. All these places are having strong Covid attacks right now. RED ALERT! There does indeed seem to be a geographic link between lower pneumonia vaccine levels and bad Covid outbreaks.

    https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/pneumococcal-vaccines/?currentTimeframe=0&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
  110. I got a flu shot once, and the resulting case of pneumonia almost killed me.

  111. @Lot

    Switzerland and France are exactly on the Italian trendline,

    There’s not enough detail at zer0-x to be able to tell. Switzerland seems to have taken off, but getting things under control.

    Worldometer does confirm that Switzerland has the highest per capita rate of infection, after tiny city states such as the Vatican and San Marino. And Iceland.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    • Replies: @res
  112. George says:

    NYC daily death stats:
    Underlying Illness 96%, but since 75% of cases are 65 and older it is not unexpected that they have underlying illnesses.

    https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-daily-data-summary-deaths.pdf

    The lock down of males 30 and under and somewhat older females is pointless and counterproductive. Those are exactly the groups you want to get immunity fast, otherwise there is no hope for caring for the elderly. The lock down seems like more of a scam at this point.

    NYC and some other trendy cities might have the highest density of immunity compromised populations (including AIDS patients), which is why they have the highest death rate.

  113. Xavier B says:
    @Steve Sailer

    Sure but it shows how much the immune system is complex, how little we know about it, and how promising solutions can backfire.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  114. Antiwar7 says:

    Look at this preliminary report on the effectiveness of the US flu vaccine this season, and the circulating strains:
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/2019-2020.html

    Basically, there are two circulating strains, type A H1N1pdm09 (31%), and type B Victoria (63%). And yet the effectiveness of the vaccine against that particular type A strain, even though the vaccine included that exact same strain, is only 5% for 18–49-year-olds, versus around 50% for those younger or older.

    Why is that? And what does it imply?

    • Agree: BB753
  115. bomag says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Dr. Visionary there in NYC sounds a lot calmer than anyone I’ve seen on my wife’s youtube sampling, 95% of the unz.com articles, and 75% of the commenters. I can’t vouch for the whole rest of the internet, but it seems like there have been a lot of black pills prescribed lately. The news media must suck them down like boxes of lemon heads.

    Yes.

    Lines up with our drift into a kind of paganism: scared villagers, huddled in the forest; beset by witches and beasts; in need of the Archdruid to come by with costumes and ceremonies to keep us safe. Threats include: Racists; Those not acknowledging the many genders; Misogynists; Users of Bad Words that trigger us and require a police state to re-install order; etc.

    Civilizations that abide have a component of conquering fear:

    Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death,
    I will fear no evil

    Allah’s will

    Now our fears are rising and pushing us back into huddling and shivering.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  116. res says:
    @PiltdownMan

    There’s not enough detail at zer0-x to be able to tell.

    A log y-axis is better for showing exponential growth. With a linear axis it is difficult to see the behavior at the low end.

    In addition, exponential growth plots as a straight line on a semi-log graph.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semi-log_plot

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    , @vhrm
  117. J.Ross says:
    @Enemy of Earth

    The problem is best explained with numbers by Grauniad columnist, doctor and medicinal apologist Ben Goldacre. I can’t recall the numbers but what they signify is this:
    Real vaccines have a dead body of the bad guy so your immune system can recognize him if he ever turns up alive.
    Homeopathy purifies the crucial item out of the mix and then asks us to believe that there’s a molecular-level hole in the shape of the no-longer-present thing.
    So the vaccine has a thing and homeopathy doesn’t. Vaccines can work (but they can also fail, include live virus, or be garbage), but homeopathy cannot work.

    • Replies: @anon
  118. robot says: • Website

    When trying to understand a system with lots of variables, I try to design a mathematical simulation that lets you keep on doing different experiments until all possible outcomes are accounted for. The variables here are still unfamiliar and unintuitive: what kind of symptoms when and for whom, contagious when and for whom, tests and masks availability, etc.

    Regarding flu shots, I got my 1st one in decades in January. I hadn’t been sick for a decade but a week after the shot I was down for a week, knocked out no energy. I was annoyed and swore not to bother again, but maybe it will turn out lucky.

  119. @HA

    Yep, if that was her tweet, she definitely screwed it up, though we’ve seen far worse lately. If she’d said <30 y/o, she'd be right by that data, but that data on the right side is pretty suspect anyway, without us knowing the denominator (it was from S. Korea, where I read lots of people got tested, but still not very certain…)

    You should read her column, though, HA, brain fart notwithstanding.

    • Agree: HA
  120. @Anon

    Thank you. I am aware of the difference between vaccinations and homeopathy. I just like messing with doctors. Once while having my medical history taken by a new doctor I was asked if I had ever used recreational drugs. I replied that there was nothing recreational about it. I was serious. He just about fell out of his chair.

    • Replies: @William Badwhite
  121. @bomag

    Except for the shivering. We’ve had a warm spell, and everyone’s been out, with lots of kids too, of course. Oh, and about the huddling … no, no, none of that. It’s the LAW!

  122. @res

    Thank you! They need some of that semi-log green paper BADLY… should have bought a ream of it instead of those extra rolls of toilet paper.

  123. black sea says:
    @Anon

    The good news is you’re in great shape for someone your age. The bad new is that you won’t remain that age for long, and assuming you don’t die young in an accident, you will over time develop a host of chronic conditions, a process which will culminate in your death, which is itself a part of natural living.

    But in the meantime, your test results are most encouraging.

    • Replies: @Anon
  124. Sean says:

    In 1918 they thought Spanish flu was a bacteria, and believed they had identified it. This was an easy mistake for them to make because the majority of actual deaths in 1918 were through secondary bacterial infections. Maybe in Italy, which seems to have been overwhelmed, that is again becoming the case.

    In the 2009 influenza scare there was scandal in Germany about the flu jab available to the public being different to the ones officials and essential workers got. Merkel announced she would get the ordinary one, and no doubt she threw some money at the problem.Merkel’s brush with SARS-CoV-2 was was a result as of an infected doctor giving her a precautionary bacterial pneumonia shot. The German nuclear phase out and public flu shots in the 2009 Bird Flu scare, show that country is attuned what is called Dread Risk. This is a fear elicited by the prospect of suddenly dying together with many others at one point in time.

    Germany started with almost three times the critical care beds per head population that the European average and their people are probably smarter and better trained than in other places. They also have far more nurses than other places. The initial German outbreak was in January (14 cases in Bavaria) these were contact traced and isolated, then there were no new cases between 11 February and 27 February It takes a month to die of COVID-19 and the first death in Germany was on 8 March, I expect the daily acceleration in German deaths to start a decline today (one month after complacency over success in Bavaria ended) and much more sharply after the 8th April.

    In a nutshell, Germany has a predisposition to react to Dread Risk, the Bavarian epidemic alerted people to the DR early (before if actually started in that country actually), and their medical infrastructure is superb. German vaccination is usually at the doctors office. It was all voluntary but late last year measles vaccination of children was made compulsory . Having a strong anti vax movement indicates a propensity to Dread Risk in my opinion.

    In Germany COVID-19 patients have a median age of 46, even though in other countries it is over 60 and Germany has the oldest population in Europe. It seems to me that elderly Germans were relatively un-infected because they were extremely cautious begining from when they heard about the Bavarian outbreak. I think the point at which Germany reached 1 death per ten million per head of population is not a good index of how far along they are in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic because the old Germans avoided avoided contact with SARS-CoV-2. So Germany does not really disprove the idea that flu vaccination is efficacious for COVID-19 .

  125. LondonBob says:

    Was tuberculosis still a thing in places like France, Spain and Italy in the fifties and sixties?

    Anyway Covid has been downgraded by the British authorities, ‘As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.’

    https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/wuhan-novel-coronavirus

    Even Neil Ferguson is forecasting less than twenty thousand deaths, so basically like a bad flu season. Looks like the Oxford team are coming out on top with their forecast.

    • Replies: @Anon
  126. vhrm says:
    @res

    Hot semi-log action inside! updated daily.

    http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

    It’s also of the Johns Hopkins CSSE dataset. I’m still chewing on it but it has countries, states, both as totals and per-capita. Looks like a pretty nice setup, if a little busy. I’m not affiliated with it. Found it via a post on reddit when looking for better visualizations: https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirusbayarea/comments/foustg/interactive_live_visualization_of_john_hopkins/

    Anyway… definitely shows that NY is worse than avg. CA better than avg. CA looks a smidge sub-linear which is slowing growth.

    • Thanks: res
    • Replies: @res
  127. Anon[575] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anon

    Avoid the flu shot as vaccines are unnatural, a cocktail of toxic chemicals, a form of control, and unorthodox as many of them use recycled fetal tissue.

    Sources?

    • Replies: @Adam Smith
  128. anonymous[159] • Disclaimer says:
    @anon

    That doesn’t look like a news story on March 26. It’s about a Chinese real estate company in January and February buying up all the supplies it could get in Australia and shipping back to China.

    • Replies: @Autochthon
  129. Yngvar says:

    Latest score from Norway:

    2916 confirmed infected.

    Gender balance of the infected:
    46,8% women
    53,2% men.
    Average age: 47,7 years.

    Gender balance for patients in ICU:
    76% men
    24% women.
    Average age: 59 years.

    Dead from virus: 14
    Average age: 84 years.

    Source: https://www.nrk.no/norge/nesten-dobbelt-sa-mange-koronadodsfall-blant-menn-som-blant-kvinner-1.14960611 (in Norwegian)

  130. Nonymous says:
    @Anon

    Congratulations on being in perfect health while under 40. That’s a feat only a handful of people can boast to have achieved in the entire world. You really should be giving TED talks instead of posting anonymously here.

    The antivax crowd desperately needs poster boys like you.

    • Replies: @Anon
  131. TWS says:

    My sample size of one is this the only year I got a flu vaccine I caught H1N1 and almost died. My worst flu season ever.

  132. Realist says:
    @Redneck farmer

    And refuse to admit death is a part of life.

    Sounds like a plan…disregard the obvious.

  133. Ganderson says:
    @donut

    What in the Wide Wide World of Sports is goin’ on here….?

  134. Ganderson says:
    @Buffalo Joe

    Welcome back Joe! No lax this year!

  135. Ganderson says:
    @Mr McKenna

    I think they will be. Governor Charlie Baker (or, as Slow Joe calls him, Charlie Parker; or Tall Deval in the coinage of the great Howard Lewis Carr) has just mandated that MA schools stay closed until at LEAST May 4.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
  136. Anonymous[367] • Disclaimer says:
    @Yojimbo/Zatoichi

    Point taken, live healthy = generally better immune response. But watch the arrogance of having been healthy/lucky. You never know when lightening will strike.

    COVID-19 is novel. Nobody really has full immunity to it. I think his point was that if you get even a mild case of Coronavirus, it unto itself will weaken most people’s immune system somewhat (maybe even Ubermensch Broccoli eaters) and that another infection, i.e. influenza may opportunistically attack the person when they’re “defenses are down.” The double whammy may test the best of immune systems.

    And regardless, even the healthiest person on earth will have a weakening of their immune as they age. It’s a fact of life.

    Or one day they could have some genetic autoimmune issue triggered by a virus or bacteria, then instant weakened immune issues that most healthy lifestyles may not even overcome. One never knows.

    You may also want to explore how Cytokine Storms (which are the ultimate killer in many of these viruses) often have a paradoxically high morbidity rate in the healthiest like in the 1918 Flu Epidemic.

    • Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
  137. In medicine, Big Data observational (i.e., non-experimental) studies might be better suited for preliminary falsification: if a hypothesis like this fails in a quick Big Data analysis, then no need to go on to controlled studies.

    Unfortunately there are counter examples To this too.
    Nonetheless, many experiments are impractical or unethical. Moreover, If experiment are can be done, we still need to make policy decisions in the interim.

    Observational studies, while no panacea, should be a part of the process. That means collecting good quality data. Joining incompatible databases can introduce hard to detect problems.

    Baseball is great because Scoresheets are pretty stansard, while the noise ( scorer judgement) is small change in a dollar economy. OTOH, much of the scoresheet was developed in a different era, data collection was very slow to change once set and standardized.

  138. @Anonymous

    his twitter is in french. But my twitter used to show a translate option. Is that still available?

  139. Corn says:
    @Coemgen

    Can people get re-infected or catch Coronavirus a second time though? Do we know for sure?

    I’ve heard it said people can catch CV a second time. I also remember Dr. Aylward saying at his press conference that there’s no good evidence people are re-infected and that recovery seems to confer immunity ala a standard virus.

    Has this question been settled? Are people being reinfected or are they just having a relapse or catching regular flu?

    • Replies: @HA
  140. Estimate, by CDC, of flu-related deaths in the U.S. from October 1, 2019 to March 14, 2020:

    23,000–59,000.

  141. @Anon

    Now that Prince Chuck has the bug, it will be interesting to see how someone from the most famous family of homeopathic patients will respond. Sadly he is unlikely to tell us if he took pharmaceutical meds or not. Gotta admit the royal family does longevity pretty darn well. By the way I am not advocating for anything.

  142. Liza says:
    @Anon

    You don’t belong here, Anon[205]. This is a place for paid-up members of an elite crowd with the stoutheartedness to challenge the most controversial subjects in existence – until it comes to vaccines. Then, it’s okay – nay, mandatory – to fall in with the crowd. And if you should have different ideas, they can do no better than gang up on you like a bunch of hyenas.

    In only a few dozen years, we’ve migrated from “American was not built on fear” to “Lock up all anti-vaxxers [sic] and forcibly innoculate their children.”


    nomorefakenews.com would be more your style. Life is too short to keep trying to convince hostile parties of anything. Stick with your own kind, and help out there, in all ways. I see it’s high time I took my own advice.

    And I won’t let the door hit me on the way out.

    Beatus paschae. And thanks, Steve, for all your usually good work.

  143. The Flu (HxNy) is a different beast than the Chinese Coronavirus Pandemic.

    I have never had a flu vaccine in my life, and I am still here and I don’t get the flu. Perhaps a few sniffles during flu season and a bit of a sore throat. Maybe it’s all the Vitamin Z* I consume, or maybe it’s the Vitamin D and etc.

    Maybe I have just been lucky.

    * Led Zeppelin.

  144. Anon[567] • Disclaimer says:
    @Enemy of Earth

    You’re not an ignorant hillbilly. You’re an ignorant liberal SJW eager to follow every feminist liberal fad. Soon you’ll be a vegan going to yoga class

  145. Anon[205] • Disclaimer says:
    @black sea

    The good news is you’re in great shape for someone your age. The bad new is that you won’t remain that age for long, and assuming you don’t die young in an accident, you will over time develop a host of chronic conditions, a process which will culminate in your death, which is itself a part of natural living.

    Thank you and I value the good health of my youth. You’re correct that I won’t remain this age for long, but I do believe that many of chronic health conditions can be mitigated and even avoided by practicing healthy lifestyles — and through self-discipline, which most seem to lack these days.

  146. Fraz says:
    @Anon

    You know, I got the flu shot for the first time last year and I also got several flu like illnesses, whereas before I never got sick, and when I did they were relatively mild. Hmmm….

  147. res says:
    @vhrm

    Thank you! Those are excellent visualizations and even let you choose the axis type (comparing the log and linear versions should make my point clear to anyone who does not see the importance).

    There are other useful options. I recommend taking a look at the following.
    – Be sure to notice the informative pop up windows when you hover over a particular data point (e.g. they give the current growth rates).
    – Compare confirmed cases to deaths.
    – 40 is a good default for the number of countries, but All might be of interest.
    – If curious about a particular country/state you can change the highlighted curve.

    It is interesting that Cuomo is getting such adoration when it would seem the response has been least effective in NY. But then style over substance pretty much dominates in the US.

    NY has been doing a good job of bending the curve since day 15 (3/20), but before then…
    NY Day 0 was 3/5
    Chinese Lunar New Year was 2/9. Has anyone done an analysis of whether/how much the NYC parade on 2/9 affected the spread?

  148. Mr. Anon says:
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    My wife works at a Hospital and is required to get a flu shot. Often, soon thereafter, she gets the flu. I’ve known other people who, after having gotten innoculations for flu or shingles, developed flu or shingels. Of course this is merely anecdotal. But I have not noticed that people who don’t get innoculated are necessarily any worse off than those who do. For the elderly, it may be a very different story.

    People who work in hospitals are required to get the shot, perhaps for good reasons. One reason nurses and doctors in hospitals are vulnerable is not just that they are exposed to a lot of pathogens, it’s that they are often overworked, tired, eat poorly, and spend too much time indoors.

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
  149. @Enemy of Earth

    Once while having my medical history taken by a new doctor I was asked if I had ever used recreational drugs…He just about fell out of his chair

    I received a similar reaction from a doctor when I was in my early 20’s who asked me approximately how many alcoholic drinks did I have per week. Apparently “somewhere between 80 and 100 depending on who is doing what” wasn’t what he was looking for.

  150. @Anon

    Anon, my healthcare plan, Medicare, includes an annual physical. Without fail a flu shot and pneumonia shot are offerd . The physicals and the shots have no co-pay so why wouldn’t seniors have them? I always say yes.

  151. @Ragno

    I am skeptical of the Feral Gummint as much as the next guy around here, but the two things I respect are the CDC recommendations on when to get specific vaccinations and the other is EPA labeling of pesticides. If the CDC says I am too young for the pneumonia vaccine, I don’t get it, and if my intended use of a pesticide is not on the label, I don’t use it for that purpose.

    The logic behind the age cutoff is that the pneumonia vaccine is a one-time deal because science, or something. If you wait too long, you could catch the strain of pneumonia involed, and if you get it too early, it may wear off and you are not protected when you get really old?

    • Replies: @Ragno
  152. BenKenobi says:
    @Anon

    Also, remember that guy that allegedly shot all those people in Vegas?

    Me neither.

  153. Now, for what it is worth. I have had pneumonia at least three times, the last time being bacteria pneumonia three years ago. In each case the recovery was make at home using amoxicillin, or some similar drug. My first case was in ’82 or’83 when I was 37 or 38, in great shape but a heavy, 2 packs plus a day smoker. I walked around for almost a week before the intense pain in my upper back, my lungs, sent me to the ER. Three sets of x-rays and I was shitting my pants waiting for the diagnosis of cancer. The pneumonia diagnosis was actually a relief. Back to work in a couple of days but still feeling weak. Oh, and I quit smoking cold turkey then and there. The fact that I chewed tobacco fed my nicotine craving. Smoking is the worse thing I have ever done, that I could mention here. I had a worse infection than pneumonia and that came after my wife and I flew to Europe and I was seated next to a guy who coughed through the entire flight. Whatever I caught led to pericarditis, which is an infection in the fluid surrounding the heart. That led to a two night stay in ICU. Scary stuff, but also handled with penicillin type drug. Is COVID not treatable with drugs like this? Not every case of pneumonia results in hospitalization. So how are those who are recovering managing?

    • Replies: @RSDB
  154. @Reg Cæsar

    Here we go again

    Assortative mating: the other half. Paging Dr. Hugh Jennicks.

  155. Anon[356] • Disclaimer says:
    @LondonBob

    If a normal flu season always got me 1.2 K from the government, I’d welcome it like a long-lost brother. I was all in buying stocks last week and barely left enough cash over for regular expenses.

  156. @Mr. Anon

    My wife works at a Hospital and is required to get a flu shot. Often, soon thereafter, she gets the flu. I’ve known other people who, after having gotten innoculations for flu or shingles, developed flu or shingels.

    I’ve had the exact same response as your wife to the flu shots I have received.

    I get the shot, fall ill in a day or two and recover seven to ten days after that.

  157. @Anon

    Read the vaccine inserts, they are full of all sorts of information.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WI-38

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MRC-5

  158. @Buzz Mohawk

    … you would shit diamonds.

    Golden eggs might be more useful … easier to move.

  159. Children Who Get Flu Vaccine Have Three Times Risk Of Hospitalization For Flu, Study Suggests

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090519172045.htm

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    , @Anon
    , @HA
  160. @The Wild Geese Howard

    Here is science. It’s a meta-analysis by the Cochrane Collaboration. They are a group of established medical scientists who gather and compare all the available studies on a subject in order to get at the best available truth on a matter.

    Their conclusion on the flu vaccine was this:

    We found 52 clinical trials of over 80,000 adults. We were unable to determine the impact of bias on about 70% of the included studies due to insufficient reporting of details. Around 15% of the included studies were well designed and conducted. We focused on reporting of results from 25 studies that looked at inactivated vaccines. Injected influenza vaccines probably have a small protective effect against influenza and ILI (moderate-certainty evidence), as 71 people would need to be vaccinated to avoid one influenza case, and 29 would need to be vaccinated to avoid one case of ILI. Vaccination may have little or no appreciable effect on hospitalisations (low-certainty evidence) or number of working days lost.

    We were uncertain of the protection provided to pregnant women against ILI and influenza by the inactivated influenza vaccine, or this was at least very limited.

    The administration of seasonal vaccines during pregnancy showed no significant effect on abortion or neonatal death, but the evidence set was observational.

    https://www.cochrane.org/CD001269/ARI_vaccines-prevent-influenza-healthy-adults

    • Thanks: The Wild Geese Howard
  161. @William Badwhite

    I received a similar reaction from a doctor when I was in my early 20’s who asked me approximately how many alcoholic drinks did I have per week. Apparently “somewhere between 80 and 100 depending on who is doing what” wasn’t what he was looking for.

    I knew someoneone who handled those sorts of questions by having his one or two drinks (Manhattans) a day in a 24 oz. tumbler.

    • LOL: William Badwhite
  162. @Anonymous

    As a person ages, their immune system weakens, that’s true. Therefore it’s best to start as early as one can on developing life long habits to strengthen ones immune system. (e.g. diet, exercise, not smoking, which directly affects the lungs, cardiovascular system, etc)

    Also, the original point still stands. The age group still leading the pack in total deaths from COVID-19 remain those over age 65. In Northern Italy, there was some report from among their own health organization that stated the median age of those who die from Coronavirus is age 70. I don’t particularly like to harp on the other point, but it shouldn’t be so easily tossed aside (simply our fears of being non-politically correct) but Northern Italy does have a sizable Chinese population.

    As do cities such as NY, SF, LA, and also SEA. This isn’t the only cause obviously. But it is a significant factor nevertheless.

    Also, lightening doesn’t always strike twice in the same area. Just as some people’s immune systems are healthy that instead of a flu they get a mild cold which goes away in its own.

    The should’ve, could’ve, would’ve game, as in “Well, everyone will pass eventually from something, therefore we shouldn’t do anything, or next to nothing” is, frankly, not a game worth playing as part of daily routine called living life. Maintaining a healthy immune system (for the most part) will go far to protecting and keeping one safe from infectious viruses than to do nothing at all. For the most part, the healthier the system, the longer the lifespan.

    Of course the ideal immune system would be to have one such as the late fitness guru Jack LaLane. He passed in his 98th year. He espoused fitness diet exercise etc and practiced what he preached. That he was the pinnacle of total health well into his nineties shows that although one’s immune system may indeed be genetically inherited at birth, it is a starting point. What you do with what you were given can also help tell the rest of the story.

    The time to work on your immune system is right now. One day at a time. So simple, and yet for others, so very hard to do on a daily basis.

  163. HA says:
    @BenKenobi

    “Are you saying the purpose of Covid is to destroy the evil power?”

    That’s Ron Unz’s department (but don’t ask him whether this might possibly have been a rogue faction in CHINA’a deep-state trying to stir up a confrontation between the US and China — the cast of deep state villains in his shtick is too limited for that).

    As for me, I don’t think nature much cares about our political alliances, or lack thereof, when it’s mutating new viruses, and moreover, I see nothing particularly suspicious in the timing or manner in the usual origin story about how this all started, for me to think some grand conspiracy could explain things better. I think it’s pretty plausible that some idiot in or around Wuhan did indeed decide that some bat soup would hit the spot on a cold autumn day, or else some traditional-medicine quack told him it would make his penis bigger or boost his qi — something as purposeless and nonsensical as that.

    Should we go to war with China over that? Of course not. But we should definitely trust the Chinese government less, and not continue offshore the production of materials we might need the next time something like this happens (and this kind of thing occurs too frequently to assume it won’t happen again), and keep pushing for the Chinese to close the “traditional medicine” loopholes that allow their wet markets to continue operating.

    It also wouldn’t hurt to keep pushing back on Chinese trolls and their useful idiots, who will continue to try and twist the narrative in their favor in the coming months.

    • Replies: @HA
  164. @Steve Sailer

    [Cauti0n: Poorly worded and edited]

    Does A Coronavirus Vaccination Help End Your Life?

    ADE (Antibody-Dependent-Enhancement) is a very general concept which involves attempts to explain via a number of observed or theoretical processes whereby antibodies can, speaking very broadly, “do more harm than good.” These processes are NOT limited to ones involving “hypersensitivity” or “cytokine storm” or ACE2 receptors. I fear that I have at least moderate cognitive decline and have lost some previous searches. One article describes what appears to be a hideously elegant theorized mechanism by which an antibody to a Corona virus Spike Protein (S) in binding to that protein actually facilitates entry to immune cells. The below is surely widely known to many researchers and I haven’t the foggiest idea why ADE concerns are not more widely publicized. I hope that other Readers can help to refute and/or expand those concerns about ADE in the development of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine.

    [MORE]

    “Even though there was not much follow-through of vaccine candidates following the SARS outbreak, two separate SARS vaccines did make it through phase 1 trials: one used inactivated SARS virus and the other used recombinant spike protein formulation. Both led to a T-helper type 2 cell-shifted immune responses and were well tolerated. However, in subsequent studies, mice inoculated with either vaccine and then challenged with SARS-CoV displayed hypersensitivity, resulting in severe immunopathology. The SARS vaccines were only safe as long as no virus challenge occurred.”

    Gilbert says these findings are reason enough “for caution in proceeding to application of a SARS-CoV vaccine in humans.” And it will be essential for any SARS-CoV2 vaccine program that these effects be ruled out.”

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41587-020-00005-z

    This seems even more scary:

    “Nevertheless, at least one report has indicated that a SARS-CoV vaccine candidate based on recombinant full-length SARS-CoV spikes protein triggered infection of human B cell lines in vitro despite eliciting a neutralizing and protective immune response in rodents (Kam et al. 2007). Additionally, at least two studies have shown that anti-SARS-CoV-spiked immune serum potentiates infection of immune cell lines by SARS-CoV because of antibody-mediated ADE (Jaume et al. 2011; Wang et al. 2014). ”

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6178114/

    I’ll try to post scarier stuff soon.

  165. HA says:
    @Corn

    “Can people get re-infected or catch Coronavirus a second time though? Do we know for sure?”

    Based on what we know of the existing coronaviruses, immunity lasts a year or two. After that, there’s nothing to stop you from getting sick again, and the same goes for those around you who got sick the first time, so that herd immunity needs to be re-established once it peters out.

    That doesn’t mean you can’t relapse before then if your immune system is weakened, or the viral load overwhelms it.

    Again, this all refers to the previously known coronaviruses. It’s too soon to know how long the immunity associated with this new virus will last.

  166. @Daniel Williams

    Too bad you don’t have any white children.

    I remember you mentioned being a 39 year old bachelor a while ago.

    Ultimately you’re a failure and a genetic dead end. Hopefully you enjoyed the PUA shit while it lasted, though.

    • Replies: @Daniel Williams
  167. @Daniel Williams

    I noticed that the only China Virus deaths the media was talking about were white people.

    Same in Canada, there have been dozens of deaths but the only people mentioned by name/photo were white.

    I find this suspicious, and believe they are trying to implant a false image of China virus patients into our minds.

    And yes, at the end of the day non-whites of any stripe should never have been accepted into the USA. And you should have made at least 3 white children.

  168. Thanks for mentioning that Germany doesn’t fit the hypothesized pattern. It’s important right now when coming up with theories to point out the exceptions to your theory, as this commenter has done.

    Amen, amen, 3 times Amen.

    And with respect to that:

    …Japan have ridiculously low hospitalization rates of people, particularly those who are young.
    …South Korea vaccinates an insane amount of the old, and pretty much is better than us even in the young. Japan isn’t so great BUT South Korea and Japan also tend to have low rates of influenza.

    Was hopeful reading this but there’s a lot to doubt. The author is colluding two theories: that influenza and COVID-19 are co-morbid, and that influenza vaccinations may resist COVID-19. At least from what he outlines the first theory is really interesting and helpful for explaining Italy, but the second part is a lot weaker. We need much more data on both.

  169. @Steve Sailer

    ADE Post No.2

    The below might remind one in a very, very general way of HIV “hijacking” of the host immune system.

    “IMPORTANCE Antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) of viral entry has been observed for many viruses. It was shown that antibodies target one serotype of viruses but only subneutralize another, leading to ADE of the latter viruses. Here we identify a novel mechanism for ADE: a neutralizing antibody binds to the surface spike protein of coronaviruses like a viral receptor, triggers a conformational change of the spike, and mediates viral entry into IgG Fc receptor-expressing cells through canonical viral-receptor-dependent pathways. We further evaluated how antibody dosages impacted viral entry into cells expressing viral receptor, Fc receptor, or both receptors. This study reveals complex roles of antibodies in viral entry and can guide future vaccine design and antibody-based drug therapy.”

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31826992

    [MORE]

    It should be noted that some antibodies are the result of previous infections (see various Corona viruses (some relatively benign), non-related viruses, bacteria, fungi, pollen, non-biologic antigens etc.,etc.) or vaccinations. It is possible that some elderly victims (as in hugging-prone Italians) have died because of previous relatively harmless Corona virus infections occurring over the course of a long lifetime. At least one previous poster speculated about lung damage from previous infection as being a factor in survival. That, and “hypersensitivity,” “autoimmune” and so on could lead to ARDS, but the above suggests that another process might be of crucial importance.

    • Replies: @reactionry
  170. anon[284] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anon

    Extremely rare for those charged with murder in Australia and New Zealand to plead guilty before the Trial. The only exceptions i can think of are:
    1. Martin Bryant, charged with shooting 35 people dead at Port Arthur in 1996
    2. Julian Knight, charged with shooting 7 people dead at Clifton Hill in 1986
    3. This bloke.

  171. anon[284] • Disclaimer says:
    @J.Ross

    Bullshit. Homeopathy imparts a unique pattern to the distilled water. Water has memory, remember?

    Does the body respond to that unique pattern in a therapeutic way?

    Who knows, but it makes at least as much sense as the theory behind vaccines, with the added benefit

    that it doesn’t turn kids into vegetables.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
  172. HA says:
    @HA

    “Should we go to war with China over that? Of course not. But we should definitely…”

    Oh yeah, and we should get rid of the clowns in the WHO who caved to Chinese political pressure so as to help them create an international market for their Chinese traditional medicine (ditto for any attempts by India to market ayurvedic cow urine as being in any way therapeutic, save for a placebo effect).

    Without such kowtowing, we might have avoided this mess the first time around.

  173. @Adam Smith

    Adam, thank you for the link. I posted that an 11 year old, healthy, active local boy died from complications of the flu and he had a flu shot.

    • Replies: @Adam Smith
  174. Steve, I, in my humble opinion, think we need a COVID time out. Please start a new thread. Any non virus topic would do. Thank you.

    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican
  175. Anon[205] • Disclaimer says:
    @Nonymous

    The last time that I checked and according to a recent CDC report, over 20% of youths are obese in the United States, and 35% of the adult populations. Furthermore, nearly 75% of youths have at least one underlying condition in the United States.

    Thanks for your sarcasm, but I’ll simply deflect it as I’m happy with where I stand in comparison to the average American.

    For reference, the United States leads all industrialized nations in obesity (Australia is second at about 17%, slightly less than half of the United States), diabetes, heart disease, cancer, asthma, STDs, etc.

  176. dearieme says:
    @Sideshow Bob

    Perhaps so but you miss the point – flu jab was just an example. Replace it by precautions against smallpox, TB, whatever other infectious disease you like. The point is that they are a matter of public health, as distinct from most medical conditions which are a matter of private health.

  177. Anon[205] • Disclaimer says:
    @Adam Smith

    And likely to be autistic, which even the CDC has recently bulked at.

  178. @Ganderson

    Gandy, Yes, no Lacrosse and sad for the high school seniors who needed to showcase their skills to get some college athletic aid.

  179. J.Ross says:
    @anon

    We know that water has memory now because of the equipment we have now. Homeopathy was developed when we didn’t have that equipment.

  180. @William Badwhite

    People usually just lie. A lot of health care people multiply the number of drinks they’re told by some factor representing their level of cynicism as a rule of thumb.

  181. @Buffalo Joe

    Ay, Tone, da stones on dis guy!

    Mr. Buffalo, must I remind you that you just recently slunk back after a rather cringeworthy, hysterical departure? Some unsolicited advice: First spool up a few months of non- Eeyore COPD comment section wheezing before making programming requests. Gabeesh? 😉

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
  182. @reactionry

    [ADE Post No. 3]

    Not That It Matters, But How Did Your Humble Nutjob Get There?
    (that’s a Big Hint that most or all readers should skip the following)

    Dengue Gay?
    Or: Dengue Gedank

    OK – just liked the sound of “Dengue Gay.”
    (pronunciations differ)

    [MORE]

    Some time ago (when? at times time seems to stand still and at others, flies by, and yes, memory is often self-serving), like perhaps millions of people, I speculated that some elderly Italians might be dying because of previous Corona virus infections. Thoughts then turned to Dengue (or was it the other way around? -probably think of dengue several times a decade). Dull musings had already been going on when an iSteve reader posted a screen shot of Peter Griffin with a color chart with a gradient of white Corona into brown Dengue. I don’t believe that was linked to ADE. It has long been known that some people with a history of Dengue seem to be at relatively risk of some serious complication with a subsequent episode of Dengue.

    – not sure that I already remembered or knew that there are four known strains of the Dengue virus. Googling away –
    Puzzling events with vaccine directed against all four strains:
    http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2017/12/sanofi-restricts-dengue-vaccine-downplays-antibody-enhancement
    “The company said a new analysis shows that, for dengue-naive recipients, the vaccine makes future dengue episodes more severe. According to a press release from Sanofi, vaccination should not be recommended to people who have NOT [screaming caps added] been infected by dengue virus.”
    – wtf? Is the third time the charm? Nope, probably not even that…

    And what the heck is “ADE?”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement

    Yup, influenza virus is also mentioned.

    “Sanofi’s prior work on SARS, another coronavirus that caused an epidemic in 2002-2003 and shares around 80% of its genes with COVID-19, means it can ‘fast-track’ a vaccine through development, although it could still be a year before it is ready for human testing.

    The company says it plans to investigate whether a preclinical-stage SARS vaccine candidate [someone should try to find a link for that ]could protect against COVID-19, whilst also exploring new candidates. That has already been shown to provide partial protection in animal studies.”

    http://www.pmlive.com/pharma_news/us_backs_sanofis_fast-track_coronavirus_vaccine_1326478

    I believe that articles citing use by a Corona virus (the “original” SARS and/or MERS bugs) using antibodies binding to it to somehow enter immune cells go back at least several years (based on searches last night), but I can’t find them now. Some new articles might be crowding out old ones.
    Here’s something from 2016 which gives at least some idea of the complexity of research and evolutionary speculation:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5457962/

    Time to give this probable dead end (AED) a rest?

  183. @Jenner Ickham Errican

    Jen, thanks for the reply. You always take a camera into the men’s room with you? Asking for a friend.

    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican
  184. @LoutishAngloQuebecker

    I remember you mentioned being a 39 year old bachelor a while ago. Ultimately you’re a failure and a genetic dead end.

    I’ll have to dream of a day when medical science allows a forty-year-old man to sire children, I guess.

  185. @danand

    Danand,

    Your graphic shows the pneumococcal vaccination rate while the physician was referring to flu vaccinations. Is there something important about pneumococcal vaccinations we should know?

    I’ve added the dashboard for flu vaccinations below.

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/reportshtml/reporti1819/reportii/index.html

    BTW New York and California flu vaccinations percentages for those > 65 years are about the same.

  186. @anonymous

    Are you facetious, stupid, Chinese, or some combination thereof?

    If a dastardly murder is discovered in March, and evidence proves it was committed in February, is the murder somehow not noteworthy?

    The thing that is most pathetic about the story is the anticlimax. It’s basically “the evil Chinese did this horrible thing…and now sports.” It’s pretty obvious there will be absolutely no consequences or ramifications to the conniving Chinese for their shenanigans.

    The story is also a prime example
    of how amok corporate interests now are. Originally, corporate charters set forth the business in which the corporation could engage, and the crown gave the corporation its privileges as a corporation for those limited pursuits. With that sensible approach long abandoned, and corporations now all “engaging in any and all lawful business” or whatever other boilerplate is popular now, we are left without recourse for what was obviously a sleazy endeavour by a company ostensibly dedicated to real estate.

    (Don’t get me started on the monumental stupidity and evil of allowing foreign nationals to own real estate, especially those whose own policies categorically (and sensibly) forbid foreign nationals from owning real estate in their lands. You know how many Australian conglomerates control real estate in China? That’s right, zero, because the Chinese are not stupid enough to allow that kind of exploitation.

    Everywhere one turns, it’s jackasses in Western governments spouting “kumbay-ya” from the front steps of the store, their docile electorate singing along in rapt harmony, as a horde of swarthy aliens run back and forth from the store’s loading docks to their trucks with as much as they can carry, stifling their giggles as best they can….

  187. @Buffalo Joe

    You always take a camera into the men’s room with you?

    No shit, grampoli, there’s a camera on my phone. You were bitching about me “droppin’ a deuce” so I thought, getta loada this goombah. You were so annoyed, I had to take the pic. In fact, you’ve become something of a meme on the internets:

    https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/ay-tone

    Anyway, no disrespect: Welcome back! Salud, ya quadrupede pazzo!

  188. @Buffalo Joe

    You’re welcome Joe.

    Sorry to hear about that boy.

    It’s always sad to hear of someone losing at vaccine roulette, especially when they’re young.

  189. HA says:
    @Adam Smith

    “Children Who Get Flu Vaccine Have Three Times Risk Of Hospitalization For Flu, Study Suggests”

    While it makes to sense to argue with an anti-vaxxer, in the interest that someone with a kid decides to fall for this, and their kid suffers as a result, here goes nothing:

    …the researcher noted that the surprise finding probably has more to do with the severity of the underlying illness in children receiving the vaccine than with any deficiency in the vaccine.

    “This may not be a reflection of the vaccine but that these patients are the sickest, and their doctors insist they get a vaccination,” said study author Dr. Avni Y. Joshi, a fellow at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn.

    The above study was based on about 250 children. A followup Canadian study based on 10,000 records found the following:

    Flu vaccine prevents hospitalization in children, study shows
    Date: November 17, 2017
    Source: Public Health Ontario
    Summary: Children vaccinated against influenza are significantly less likely to experience serious complications from the virus that could land them in hospital, new research has found.

    Of course, none of this matters to an anti-vaxxer. That video “if Google was a guy” nails it: like any conspiracy theorist, they will ignore the 500 later papers that shred their accusations to bits and focus on the one contradiction that “proves” vaccines are a fraud. It’s p-hacking in reverse, since there’s always going to be outliers (and indeed, legitimate questions and problems, issues related to quality control, etc.) regarding any therapy.

    But one of these days, shortly after one of the next times someone loses a baby because a couple of anti-vaxxers refused to get their little snowflake a jab, the grieving father is going to get some guns and some grieving relatives, and there will be serious reprisals against those who allowed the disease to spread. Growing up with a flu shot, for all its possible complications, is far easier than growing up without a mother and father, even ones who are arguably too stupid to be breeding.

    • Replies: @Adam Smith
  190. Visionary says:

    Steve, I was at work, so I was unable to see your post until this moment, but I appreciate your using your platform to bring this hypothesis to the forefront of the discussion.

    I ran a brief regression analysis of available data in the US for all states with >500 cases but EXCLUDING WA because they an outlier, but in my estimation an explainable one – they are in a sense our version of Wuhan, and their elevated death rate has occurred when we really didn’t know what was happening. Other states have had a bit more time to respond. I think it’s fair to exclude them, but that’s obviously a key domestic statistical outlier.

    I can’t post images, so it’s linked here: https://imgur.com/a/d9uB5cB

    Snapshot from 3/25/20 around 5pm EST, vaccination data grabbed from the CDC:(https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/reportshtml/reporti1819/reportii/index.html)

    Coronavirus data grabbed from here:
    (https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/#stat).

    These represent something like 80-85% of all cornavirus cases in the US. I used the overall vaccination rate data against COVID19 death percentage.

    You’ll note there’s a *somewhat* inverse trend between vaccination rates and COVID19 death percentage. Also, just for clarity, the hypothesis isn’t that influenza vaccination rates explain ALL of the variance we see in COVID19 death rates – we obviously know there are many factors (hospitals becoming overwhelmed, urban density, the existence of comorbidities, the effectiveness of healthcare delivery, etc.) at play for that.

    However, if even 10-15 percent of the variance in death rate can be explained by it, then merely vaccinating people might be a public health response. Our R-squared at present suggests it is in the realm of 30% with a minus 0.55 r – not sure if I buy that it has that large of an effect in reality but it’s certainly something to think about, and we’re certainly seeing an inverse relationship across the country when cases scale.

    There isn’t much data on hospitalizations, which is actually the hypothesis (that secondary infections with influenza/other illnesses are causing at least SOME of the severity that we see).

    As an aside, to the poster that is skeptical of the claim of coronavirus mediated latent immunosuppression potentially permitting secondary infections (and of me being a physician – I can assure you that I am one):

    1.) I do agree that ARDS is a common endpoint for many diseases (including influenza). That does not negate my point that co-infections could be occurring in severe cases.

    2.) There is data that other forms of coronavirus *might* either interfere with the ability to test for influenza effectively OR cause some type of latent immunosuppression that permits secondary infections like influenza to surreptitiously co-infect patients despite those patients testing negative only 48 hours earlier. The below is a series of those with MERS-Cov that initially test negative for influenza, and then 48 hours later test positive for it.

    https://www.journalofinfection.com/article/S0163-4453(17)30048-8/abstract

    3.) You’re right that lymphopenia doesn’t ALWAYS result in elevations of co-infections. However, I’m simply not convinced that something like lymphopenia *isn’t* a marker for a generalized reduction in effective immune system responsiveness in this particular case. To wit, it’s fairly weird that COVID19 presents asymptomatically for sometimes a week – which is a long time for respiratory illnesses to be hanging out – before smashing through, and I can only surmise that it’s able to evade immune surveillance due to some method, possibly through temporary immunosuppression. As a proof of concept (admittedly it’s not a perfect one) you’ll note that T-cell lymphocytopenia is literally what happens during the course of HIV infection, and the predominant way those individuals suffer is through secondary co-infection with opportunistic illnesses.

    Regardless, it would seem that co-infection is certainly a possibility in cases with Coronavirus.

  191. Anon[172] • Disclaimer says:
    @Ghost of Bull Moose

    If we’re talking about Elmhurst in Queens, Wiki says the population of the area is 43% Asian. Hispanics in the same area are 46%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elmhurst,_Queens

    I suspect older blacks, Hispanics, and Asians are being hit hardest. It’s elderly whites who obey the nagging of their doctors to get a pneumonia shot. The other three groups tend to blow that sort of thing off. Catching pneumonia is a cofactor that tends to kill people who catch Covid-19.

  192. Ragno says:
    @Inquiring Mind

    I don’t think it’s a one-time deal – but even if it is, hey – I only intend on surviving ONE plague in my lifetime.

    In any event I didn’t pester my doctor for it – he recommended I get one on my last office visit. It may have already saved my bacon….the other night I ran the first fever I’ve gotten in over 30 years. (Close to but not quite 100. But within the hour it had returned to normal, and I’ve been between 96 and 98 the past three days, knock wood.)

    We’re all in the country of Who Knows now…. I’ve been a very loud proselytizer for fortifying the immune system with large regular doses of supplements proven to prevent/mitigate ‘cytokine storms’ (the actual ‘flu complication’ that kills you)….maybe that’s been the angel on my shoulder thus far. Incidentally, that supplement-cocktail would be:

    Vitamin C (I prefer the calcium ascorbate crystals, which are alkaline and allow you to avoid bellyaches or ‘the shits’) 3500-4000 mg daily divided in 3 or 4 doses
    Vitamin D3 (I buy these in 1000-iu form so I can take 5000 iu daily, in divided doses)
    Zinc (I prefer the ionic kind you take with a dropper) 40-60 mg daily, divided doses
    Beta glucan 400-800 mg daily, divided doses
    Curcumin 1000-1500 mg daily, divided doses
    N-Acetyl Cysteine 600 mg, twice daily
    Apigenin (artichoke extract- clinical studies all very promising, but as of yet I’ve found no recommended dosage strengths) 50 mg, twice daily
    Selenium 2-400 mcg daily
    Magnesium 400 mg daily

    I chase all the above with 10 mg of Bioperine (black pepper extract known to significantly increase bioavailability of all nutrients).

    Additionally, warm-water-and-lemon (or vinegar) gargles twice a day. And I can’t see how red wine in moderation would hurt. Also, I would urge everyone to at least stock up on part of that (admittedly long) list before the GNCs and mail-order vendors run out, as seems inevitable.

    I know what you’re thinking: with those sorts of nutritional habits, why roll the dice with a pneumonia vaccine besides? Because I’m in New York, which besides being a human Petri dish at the moment, is never going to catch up to the kinds of demands Cuomo is making daily for ICUs, ventilators and such (he’s clearly not the boy genius the media is trying to convince you he is)….so anybody requiring that sort of extreme hospitalization is simply going to die of pneumonia. And when you factor in that we’re still at the stage where nobody knows enough about the virus to make an intelligent decision, and the rest of the country has (quite rightly) barred their doors to us so that there’s no place to run to anyway…..even a mild/nominal anti-vaxxer such as myself has no choice but to try to avoid worst-case scenarios by any means necessary.

    One last suggestion: pull a few good books down from your shelves; or at least avoid news/political websites and broadcasts as much as possible. Viruses and pandemics aside, nothing will kill you faster than S T R E S S …..and between the MSM and the Bolsheviks in Democrat clothing holding court 24/7, our Trusted Authority Figures seem determined to wear out our last remaining nerve endings – daily! The first step towards health and sanity is to not let the bastards sink their grappling hooks into your psyche. Seriously; don’t let them.

  193. @The Wild Geese Howard

    Yeah, that goes some way to illustrating why social distancing might not have been a top priority at Ischgl.

    There’s a cluster of cases that has broken out here in HK all tied to the infamous Lan Kwai Fong bar district; it’s the main source of local transmissions here at the moment, and it’s resulting in fresh crackdowns on public gatherings that are likely to be announced later today. Lots of people here are pissed off at the party-hearty expat/ABC/BBC crowd for putting the other 7.5 million of us deeper into the social deep freeze.

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
  194. Anon[969] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anon

    40 deaths down from 47 yesterday. The governor of Tokyo seems to be planning for weekend lockdowns. What good will that do?! Did epidemiologists sign off on that?

  195. @HA

    If your beautiful flu shot is so effective, what on earth are you worried about?

    the researcher noted that the surprise finding probably has more to do with the severity of the underlying illness in children receiving the vaccine than with any deficiency in the vaccine.

    Please, for the love of god and the sake of pete, do not vaccinate someone with severe underlying illness. That is plainly stupid.

    and there will be serious reprisals against those who allowed the disease to spread.

    No, there won’t. Vaxxers gleefully spread disease.

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/acip/safety-vaccines.htm

    Shedding of the live attenuated vaccine virus is common after receipt of LAIV.

    In a study of 200 children aged 6 through 59 months, shedding of at least one vaccine virus was detected in 79% of children overall, and was more common among younger children (89% of 6- through 23-month-olds as compared with 69% of 24- through 59-month-olds)

    So please, if you or your kid have been recently vaxxed, please quarantine yourself for at least a month.

    Please stop spreading disease.

    father is going to get some guns…

    for all its possible complications, is far easier than growing up without a mother and father

    Thank you for proving so succinctly that vaxxers are irrational, violent people who cannot be trusted or reasoned with.

    Also, thank you for admitting that vaccines have plenty of possible complications. Most vaxxers I know do not have the emotional maturity to admit that to themselves. Kudos for that.

    Sláinte

  196. @The Last Real Calvinist

    There’s a cluster of cases that has broken out here in HK all tied to the infamous Lan Kwai Fong bar district; it’s the main source of local transmissions here at the moment,

    Not surprising.

    A single bartender would spread a virus to glasses, silverware, napkins, the bar itself, chairs, tables, bottles, taps, etc.

    That said, I think the infection rates are vastly understated while the fatality rates are vastly overstated.

    Mainly because the virus’ spread is far, far in advance of our silly, economy-killing shutdowns:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/stunning-visualization-reveals-where-spring-break-covidiots-traveled-after-flooding-florida

  197. @Visionary

    “I ran a brief regression analysis of available data in the US for all states with >500 cases but EXCLUDING WA because they an outlier, but in my estimation an explainable one – they are in a sense our version of Wuhan, and their elevated death rate has occurred when we really didn’t know what was happening.”

    I would also suggest excluding NYC/NY as well, as that could be an extreme outlier of the higher end of COVID-19 infections. In other words, just because NY/NYC has an extremely high number of total COVID-19 infections compared with the rest of the US, does not necessarily mean that the rest of the US is going to end up like NY/NYC regarding total infections, rates of infections, etc.

    As during the 1918-20 Flu Epidemic, some cities were extremely affected by the Flu (e.g. Philadelphia comes readily to mind, as does NY), while other cities were hardly affected by the Flu at all. Unfortunately sometimes it is the NY based arrogance that simply because it happened in their own backyard, then “obviously” it will also occur in the rest of the US at the same rate.

    Currently, NY/NYC leads the US with total number of infections, the rate, as well as total deaths from COVID-19. Some estimates are about 1 in 3 infections/deaths are coming from NY/NYC. Remove NY/NYC from the equation, and the virus does not appear nearly to be as dire. If WA is an outlier, then so too is NY/NYC. Again, simply because something occurs in NY/NYC, does not automatically equate to “and therefore its bound to hit the rest of the US at the same high rate as well.”

    Not necessarily. One should remain skeptical of such claims, especially with the MSN’s non-stop continuous doom and gloom reports, oftentimes reaching near cataclysmic proportions. “If this continues unabated, the US will see 2-10 million deaths before 2020 is over, etc etc.” Is this responsible reporting from the MSN? Of course not. But it is hardly surprising. And of course the majority of the MSN is located in NYC, and therefore they have access to dominating the narrative regarding what people are to think about COVID-19.

    And that simply is irresponsible.

  198. RSDB says:
    @Buffalo Joe

    Scary stuff, but also handled with penicillin type drug. Is COVID not treatable with drugs like this?

    It’s not, being as it is a viral disease, but antibiotics are given to patients to deal with inevitable opportunistic secondary infections.

    So how are those who are recovering managing?

    Here’s a very extensive (non-technical, though) interview with a young man who recovered:

    [MORE]

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
  199. @dearieme

    you don’t have a flu jab just to protect you, you also do it to protect me.

    What if a “flu jab” is actually counterproductive?

    What if the cellphones that we increasingly clutch closer and closer to our ears, eyes and brain box even as we socially distance ourselves from the people we are talking to serve to activate rather than suppress harmful viruses?

    “the densification of radiation that we are seeing with 5G is going to make a lot of people sick and will also interfere with the body’s ability to fight viruses and may actually activate viruses which are within vaccines.https://www.c-span.org/video/?470680-3/washington-journal-dr-william-schaffner-discusses-latest-developments-coronavirus-pandemic&playEvent&start=2869

    https://www.unz.com/gatzmon/public-hysteria-vs-scientific-thinking/#comment-3799070

    “People used to smoke on airplanes, and there was a lot of resistance to stopping that . . .”

    • Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
  200. @SolontoCroesus

    There used to be far more smokers than non-smokers within the US adult population. That’s changed, thanks to decades long education regarding the dangers of smoking.

    All one has to do is think about it. The air on an airplane in flight for several hours at a time isn’t getting a steady stream of fresh air as the cabin is sealed off from the outside. Therefore if tons of people are smoking, (and thus polluting the air that’s available to passengers), how exactly is that safe for people to breathe for hours at a time? And of course smoking weakens one’s immune systems anyway which makes it harder to fight off viruses.

    • Replies: @William Badwhite
  201. HA says:

    “If your beautiful flu shot is so effective, what on earth are you worried about?”

    I’m not worried for myself — I made that clear in my first sentence. The ones most vulnerable in the last measles epidemic were children too young to be immunized. Had the older children around them gotten their shots the probability of those infants dying from measles (or complications from any measles-shot) would have been miniscule. That’s how herd immunity works, or is supposed to, when the number of anti-vaxxers is sufficiently low. But you’re clearly not much for the big picture.

    “Thank you for proving so succinctly that vaxxers are irrational, violent people who cannot be trusted or reasoned with.

    Oh, they’re fine, for the most part — right up until they lose a baby because some idiot refused to inoculate his fragile little flower. Then they do indeed tend to became irrational and violent. I don’t find that so hard to grasp, but maybe your understanding of human nature is as flimsy as your grip on reality. Hopefully, it will take something less dramatic to bring you to your senses (I note that the resolve of many anti-vaxxers in the wake of the last measles outbreak), but if not, there’s always that.

    • Replies: @Adam Smith
  202. Anon[205] • Disclaimer says:

    Bravo M.I.A., bravo!

    If I have to choose the vaccine or chip I’m gonna choose death – YALA

  203. @Visionary

    I hate to knock Steve’s commentariat, but when we get off core topics like making fun of people, it’s not very good at stuff. You should float your ideas at SlateStarCodex or LessWrong blogs or their associated Reddits. In those places, people with high-powered analytic abilities will give you feedback.

    • Replies: @Visionary
  204. @Buffalo Joe

    Dear Buffalo Joe, I am pleased to read your posts again. I have missed them. I must mention that I have put your prior advice about daughters into practice with my youngest. I am grateful to receive the wisdom gleaned from your experience.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
  205. @Reg Cæsar

    How high should the tariffs be on these medical supplies? Is 25% enough? How about 50%? 100%?

    High enough to keep production in America.

  206. @asdf

    Crump is medical slang meaning near death with very little time remaining.

  207. @HA

    All recently vaccinated people should be quarantined for month after they get their beloved jab.

    You can try to blame the anti-vaxxers, but it seems there is no hiding from the measles, as a recent outbreak has been traced to a fully vaccinated 22-year-old New Yorker. This “patient zero,” whom Science magazine has affectionately nicknamed “Measles Mary,” was neither hospitalized nor quarantined when she contracted the virus in 2011 and unwittingly passed it on four other people—two of whom were also vaccinated. The fate of Measles Mary, and those unfortunate enough to have come in contact with her, reveals that measles vaccination does not work, as public health officials have long believed.

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2014/04/measles-outbreak-traced-fully-vaccinated-patient-first-time

    When an population is fully vaccinated, measles becomes a disease of the vaccinated.

    Herd immunity, as it is marketed today, is a non-sensical myth.

    Originally postulated in the 1930’s, the theory referred to the observation that herd immunity developed when 68% of children caught and recovered from the natural measles. It had nothing to do with vaccines. The theory has morphed into the “fact” that, despite no studies or proof, vaccination rates above a certain percentage will confer herd immunity.

    One glaring example of this unfolded last year with the crew of the naval warship, USS Fort McHenry, where 27 cases of mumps have occurred despite all 700 crew members being vaccinated. The argument has been made that this outbreak occurred, not because of lack of herd immunity but rather the vaccine being ineffective. With your Supreme Court ruling vaccines to be “unavoidably unsafe” and vaccine promoters promoting the myth of herd immunity and claiming ineffective vaccines, were does that leave the completely bogus mantra “vaccines are safe and effective?”

    The acellular pertussis vaccine produces legions of asymptomatic carriers who gleefully spread whooping cough.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/06/150624071018.htm

    Varicella Shedding Detected Up to Month After Zoster Vaccination

    https://www.mdedge.com/familymedicine/article/32531/infectious-diseases/varicella-shedding-detected-month-after-zoster

    https://www.rt.com/news/454052-vaccination-activists-side-effects-/

    When you watch someone you love die from vaccine injury, it’s hard to believe the propaganda about “herd immunity” or “safe and effective”.

    Instead of spreading disease, we should be eradicating disease. Stay healthy. Get plenty of sleep, Drink plenty of water. Eat well. Get out in the sun. Exercise. Vitamin C.

    And please, if you’re feeling sick, or if you or your child have been recently vaxxed, quarantine.

    Please stop spreading disease.

    • Replies: @HA
  208. Visionary says:
    @Chrisnonymous

    Good idea — I am appreciative that Steve was willing to highlight the topic.

  209. @Yojimbo/Zatoichi

    The air on an airplane in flight for several hours at a time isn’t getting a steady stream of fresh air as the cabin is sealed off from the outside.

    The air on a commercial jet is completely replaced approximately every 3 minutes depending on the airplane. Otherwise people would suffocate as all the oxygen eventually was depleted from people breathing. Skipping the filtering, cooling, and other processes – what essentially happens is more air is pumped in than is allowed to leave, and the air is thus pressurized. The vast majority of people trying to breath outside air at 35,000′ would die fairly quickly. Maybe some sherpa could survive but that’s about it. So the cabin is pressurized and now you’re breathing as if you’re at 5,000′ or whatever.

    Also the pressurization removes most humidity (though the AC “packs” add some back) so it doesn’t transport germs particularly well. If you get sick on a flight its going to be from the person next to you or the tray tables or the seat belt latches or something in the seat pocket but probably not from the air.

    The outflow valves are in the rear of the aircraft (well they are on Boeings, not sure about Airbus but I assume they are as well). This is why they used to put the smoking section in the aft – the air moves from front to back through the cabin, ends up in the lower section of the fuselage (cargo, baggage areas), then flows outside.

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
  210. @Charles Erwin Wilson Three

    Charles, Thank you and I think any man would be happy if his epithet was …”He was a good father.”

  211. HA says:
    @Adam Smith

    “All recently vaccinated people should be quarantined for month after they get their beloved jab.”

    Let’s recap for those still paying attention. Did Adam Smith acknowledge that his outdated study was superseded by a much larger study that refuted it when confronted with the evidence? No, he did not.

    Did he acknowledge the fact that he ignored what I clearly stated in my first post — that it was the babies who are at risk here, not the adults. No, he did not.

    Instead, he did what conspiracy theorists typically do when their claims and their arguments are blown apart, which is simply to jump to another topic. And also note, contrary to his claims that “vaxxers” never admit the pitfalls of their approach, the outdated paper is and from what I can tell, always was readily available. Otherwise, that would make their job of selectively citing according to their biases even harder. No, if you want a real echo chamber, try doing what I just did on some anti-vaxx forum, and then come talk to me about irrational.

    If you want to agitate that all children should be quarantined after vaccination, fine. Don’t just throw that around like a squid shooting a cloud of ink when it’s caught in a trap. At this point, I wouldn’t believe you if you told me the sky was blue. I’d want to see for myself. Your credibility — over and above what I already pegged it to be — is shot. That’s what happens when you keep playing your little quackery games pretending that people can’t see what you’re doing.

    Again, there’s little point in arguing with people like you, as I initially acknowledged. But I made my point and that’s probably the best one can hope for.

    • Replies: @Adam Smith
  212. @William Badwhite

    Yes, also, according to JAL, the air is passed through HEPA filters.

    Known outbreaks on airplanes show disease spreading around sick people but not willy-nilly randomly around the cabin.

  213. @HA

    The sky is blue and water is wet…

    Quarantine your babies or the measles they will get…

    By the way…

    You’ve totally convinced me the folly of my ways.

    I shall go and get like 20 vaccines tomorrow.

    Too dangerous not to…

    I must do it for the herd…

    Not even sure how i’m still alive…(?)

    Hope is for those who have no agency…

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