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Day-By-Day Graph of Exactly When 2020's Huge Murder Surge Began: the First Weekend of the Mostly Peaceful Riots
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Updated graph

Yesterday in “The Minneapolis Effect,” while citing City Crime Stats day-by-day data on homicides in a couple of dozen major American cities, I lamented that the University of Pennsylvania researchers hadn’t provided an aggregate graph summarizing all their cities, which could help distinguish between the validity of the crystallizing conventional wisdom that, well, yeah, there was a murder surge in 2020, but it was just bad luck due to covid, and nobody should even think that it might have anything to do with the George Floyd Racial Reckoning versus my view: of course BLM and the media and the politicians who encouraged the hundreds of Mostly Peaceful Riots are largely to blame.

In response, an old friend, the one who provided the data for my December Takimag column on excess deaths in the US during the pandemic, scraped the data for me from the City Crime Stats site.

The above graph shows pretty clearly the homicide trends over the course of 2020 vs. the average for the five previous years 2015-2019 across 19 cities for which CCS had day-by-day homicide stats through the end of September 2020. I created running totals for 2020 versus the average for 2015-2019. The red line represents the percentage change from the cumulative 2015-19 average to the cumulative 2020 total.

Because the the percentage difference during the earliest days of January bounces around wildly due to a small sample size, I didn’t start the graph until January 15, at which point the cumulative number of homicides in 2020 was 15% above the 2015-19 average.

The last few months of winter proved fairly violent, with the cumulative homicides so far in 2020 being 15% higher on March 16 than for the preceding five year average up through that data.

Why homicides were up in the winter of 2020 before the pandemic is hard to say. It could be a fluke — the winter sample size is small compared to the rest of the year. And, I suspect, that winter murder counts might tend to bounce up and down erratically depending upon how mild or harsh the weather is.

But, the day by day data shows that there was little direct cause-and-effect connection between the pandemic panic and 2020’s increase in murders.

San Francisco declared a lockdown on March 17 (blue vertical line on the graph), and much of the rest of urban America did too over the next couple of weeks.

Oddly, after an initial decline in murders, not much changed over the first ten weeks of pandemic panic. By Memorial Day, May 25, 2020’s cumulative homicides were running 14% ahead of 2015-19, down very slightly from the 15% before the first lockdown in mid-March.

This is not to say that the pandemic didn’t have long term effects on the murder rate. Perhaps lockdowns made people stir-crazy? Perhaps face masks contributed to the return of carjacking? Releases of prisoners due to fear of prison covid epidemics? One theory among the NYPD is that the aversion to the subways meant that bad people couldn’t get away from their bad neighborhoods when their bad neighbors started to get on their nerves. Domestic violence was expected to skyrocket, and that may have happened in Phoenix, but my impression is that it didn’t really happen as predicted most places.

It’s easy to come up with a lot of theories about the effect of coronavirus on murder, but the weird thing is that you can’t see them having much tangible effect through Memorial Day.

Memorial Day, of course, saw the fentanyl-assisted death of George Floyd (purple vertical line). By the time of the riots of the following weekend, the Great Murder Surge of 2020 was underway. The worst day for murders in 2020 prior to Memorial Day was 18, but 37 were murdered on Sunday, May 31, a day of massive Mostly Peaceful Protests. In Chicago alone, 17 were murdered that Sunday while looters ran amok. (My vague impression is that most of the increases in murdering in 2020 were not during riots per se, but due to the police being distracted by the MPP and then discouraged by the sudden decision on the part of influencers that every cop was a criminal and all the sinners saints.)

By Sunday, June 7, 13 days after George Floyd’s death, the difference between 2020 versus the average of 2015-2019 had risen from 14% to 20%.

Then the change in cumulative murders plateaued at this new high level through mid-June.

But a second national surge began about six days after the killing of Rayshard Brooks in Atlanta on June 12 after he stole a cop’s tazer and shot it at him.

By the Fourth of July, murders were up 23%, and by July 21, they were up 27%.

Then murders plateaued again until a third rise began about a week after the police shooting of the armed Jacob Blake in a domestic dispute in Kenosha on August 23.

For these 19 cities for which CCS has day by day data through the end of September, they ended the third quarter cumulatively up 30%.

Nationally, the largest ever one year increase in homicides was murderous 1968, when Martin Luther King’s assassination set off riots, at 12.7% followed by 2015 during the First BLM Era, when murders went up 12.1%. So, 2020 was the worst year for increase in homicides over the 60 years for which we have reliable data.

Here’s another way to graph the data, this time using 7-day moving averages:

I’m using a 7-day moving average of homicides across the 21 cities, with the average centered on the date: e.g., the 7-day moving average for July 4 would be the mean of the homicides counts from July 1 to July 7. The red line represents 2020, the blue line 2015-2019. The salmon-colored area is the difference the two time periods.

As you can see, the winter before lockdowns began on March 17th was modestly more homicidal than the previous half-decade’s average. The first few weeks of the pandemic saw a sharp fall in murders, followed by a big surge around April 7 (concentrated in Chicago, Houston, and Baltimore). Then nothing much happened out of the ordinary happened until late May.

The first weekend of Mostly Peaceful Riots saw a huge surge, especially in Chicago. Then, during the second week of June, the 7-day-moving average briefly fell to be no higher than the previous 5 years average. But then as the Rayshard Brooks Riots spread nationwide and the The Establishment doubled down on the idea that rioters and arrest-resisters were the Good Guys and the forces of rule of law were the Bad Guys, 2020’s murder surge returned. From June 15 through September 30, when the data collection period expires, the seven day moving average of homicides was worse than over the previous half decade in every single day.

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  1. Anon[357] • Disclaimer says:

    Minor point: It would be a good idea to make the x-axis at y=0 bolder than the other horizontal lines coming out of the y-axis, or to in some other way make more obvious that the graph spans a negative to positive range (decrease to increase). Unlike most non-zero y-axis graph problems, this one at a glance minimizes what you are trying to show, rather than exagerate it.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  2. Anonymous[175] • Disclaimer says:

  3. Anon[357] • Disclaimer says:


    Remember this post?:

    Coronavirus Prepping

    What stuff should you order now to have if it gets worse?

    I think I remember somewhere that Steve mentioned buying a 50-gallon water barrel.

    Was the barrel something designed for prepping, like these?:

    (This site is Jon Stokes’ prep website, sort of The Wirecutter for prepping. Stokes, a conservative Texan, bailed out of Ars Technica, which he cofounded, when it was sold to Conde Nast and then became somewhat woke, although not to Teen Vogue levels.)

    What other prepping stuff have you laid in, Steve?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  4. Lot says:

    Steve it’s unhinged poorly reasoned posts like this that show why you are banned from the MSM and soon to be banned from twitter.

    Please listen to WOC and the 1619 Project and cashapp Nikole Hannah Jones.

    • Agree: ic1000
    • Replies: @Lurker
    , @Chrisnonymous
  5. @Anon

    I got two 55 gallon drums of water for the next earthquake.

  6. Mike Tre says:

    Lockdowns had a similar effect on murders as compared to cold weather.

    But as the Covid19th amendment states, blacks need only take the lockdowns seriously for two weeks before they have the inalienable right to start shooting each other again.

  7. Polistra says:
    @Steve Sailer

    Oh hi Steve! This story in today’s WSJ made me think of you….

    The Padres Owe Fernando Tatís Jr. $340 Million. He Owes an Investment Fund Millions From His Payday.
    As an 18-year-old, Tatís made a deal with Big League Advance, which advances pay to minor league players in exchange for a slice of their MLB earnings. Now it’s time to pay.


    Fernando Tatís Jr. was 18 years old, just a low-level prospect from the Dominican Republic trying to work his way up in the San Diego Padres farm system, when he made a financial deal that would impact his entire baseball career. And it wasn’t with the Padres.

    Tatís signed a contract with Big League Advance, an unusual investment fund that pays minor-league players money up front in exchange for a share of their future MLB earnings.

    Tatís, now 22 and widely viewed as one of the sport’s best young stars, today knows what those earnings will be. He agreed to a record-setting 14-year contract with the Padres on Wednesday night worth an eye-popping $340 million, the third-highest total in MLB history.

    His new contract also creates a significant obligation for Tatís: to pay a sizable chunk of his new bounty—perhaps close to $30 million—to Big League Advance.

    Tatís’s arrangement is the most high-profile payday yet for Big League Advance and the unorthodox financial instrument it has created.

    Big League Advance began raising money in 2015 and made its first investment in a player in 2016. The company’s founder and CEO, Michael Schwimer, is a University of Virginia graduate who pitched in 47 games for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2011 and 2012.

    Schwimer declined to reveal how much the fund gave to Tatís as a minor-league player or how large of a stake Big League Advance has in his major-league earnings.

    However, he said Big League Advance’s average pact with players is for around 8%. In the case of Tatís, that would add up to $27.2 million. Representatives for Tatís declined to comment.

    Also relevant:

    • Replies: @William Badwhite
  8. Anon[153] • Disclaimer says:

    OT: Columbia professor: I do heroin regularly for ‘work-life balance’

    Professors are beginning to be an extremely degenerate species.

    • Replies: @Redman
  9. @Steve Sailer

    Here is how you prep for the next California earthquake. Move to Tennessee.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  10. JimB says:

    In response, an old friend, the one who provided the data for my December Takimag column on excess deaths in the US during the pandemic, scraped the data for me from the City Crime Stats site.

    Yes, the lock-down caused excess deaths for sure. Covid-19, not so much.

  11. Woody Allen is in trouble.

  12. Steve, there isn’t much doubt–has never been much doubt–about the cause of the 2020 murder surge.

    It’s the same cause as the 2014-2016 BLM murder surge: minoritarianism.

    I.e. the media’s full on campaign that barbarous white gentiles are on their endless pogrom against poor innocent black folks … who take their very lives in their hands whenever they venture near a white person. The timeline is simply incontrovertible.

    This particular iteration, was no doubt jacked up by the desire to energize blacks to vote for the dreary and boring–but thorough money men (big finance/big tech) compliant–Joe Biden. And drew some extra energy from all the young people unemployed by the pandemic.

    But this is nothing new. It’s a 50+ year assualt–of lies and propaganda–on the white gentile population that built America, their right to have their own norms and culture, to enjoy their own stuff, to govern themselves. An assualt on the American nation.

  13. @Anonymous

    Feb 18, 2021
    I know for a fact slavery was 1000% more violent than any historical records ever documented

    Wow, she’s a lot older than she looks!

    But she has a point. African men don’t work unless you threaten their lives. You need more than a whip, you need a loaded pistol on you at all times. Even today.

    This is what you get when you settle for the World’s Worst Workforce. Famine-shriveled Micks are a much better deal.

  14. BenKenobi says:

    Well sure — that is all very, extremely true. But all of that pales in comparison to the Holocoast(tm) of 1/6.

    Imagine, if you will: a mostly peaceful undocumented tour group of Trump supporters… taking selfies and moving furniture in Capitol building.

    “They’re boomers in MAGA hats… and they’re walking through the Capitol!!!!!”

  15. Hard to take Steve Sailer seriously in any capacity when he so misjudged the danger of COVID — although if that prepping post from last February is any guide, Steve was just playing to his audience of balding Excel dorks, who were busily buying out their local Costco, cleaning their guns, and preparing to kiss their Asian wives and hapa children goodbye for the last time.

    • Troll: Spud Boy
    • Replies: @Jon
  16. Thank goodness the protests were mostly peaceful. Imagine the carnage level if the protesters had gone completely berzerk.

  17. Altai says:

    Waiting for a shocking number of people to share this like it was news like with the Michael Jackson documentary.

    Maybe you can blame it on younger generations not being around when these things were news but if they know who Michael Jackson and Woody Allen are, how can they not know?

    It’s a bit weird to see this ‘there is now an official Netflix documentary, therefore now it is official’ aspect to it though.

    • Replies: @Polistra
  18. @Stonewall Jackson

    Here is how you prep for the next California earthquake. Move to Tennessee.

    Eastern Tennessee:

    Tennessee is the only one of the ten states along the Mississippi that has a peak higher than Mount Baldy in the City of Los Angeles. Elsewhere, these “Boomers” may pay for their anti-GenX/Y/Millennial/whatever attitudes:

    Woman charged with murder after fight over political sign turns into deadly shooting in Mount Vernon

    • Troll: RichardTaylor
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    , @iDeplorable
  19. @Anon

    Thanks, I’ll get rid of the below zero stuff by moving the starting point from January 10 to January 15.

  20. prosa123 says:

    One theory among the NYPD is that the aversion to the subways meant that bad people couldn’t get away from their bad neighborhoods when their bad neighbors started to get on their nerves.

    I’ll make a reasoned guess that “bad people” didn’t have much aversion to riding the subway.

    Speaking of which, the 1am – 5am “deep cleaning” (ha ha!) system shutdown is soon to be reduced to 2am – 4am. In part it’s because a 5am reopening is too late for many riders to get to work. There’s also a realization that if the cops can’t get the skells out of the system in a two-hour period there’s not much more they can do in four hours.

    • Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen
  21. @prosa123

    “Speaking of which, the 1am – 5am “deep cleaning” (ha ha!) system shutdown is soon to be reduced to 2am – 4am. In part it’s because a 5am reopening is too late for many riders to get to work.”

    Exhibit 12870 that BULLSHIT-2020 was, is, and always will be a hoax and a fraud.

    • Replies: @El Dato
    , @Prosa123
  22. @Reg Cæsar

    Mt. Baldy in Los Angeles County is 10,064 feet tall. It’s a pretty big mountain. There are no 10,000 foot mountains in the US east of the Rockies.

    • Agree: Polemos
    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  23. Polistra says:

    ‘there is now a Netflix documentary, therefore now it is official’

    Yes (slight edit). Speaks volumes about the state of our culture today.

  24. Abe says:

    my view: of course BLM and the media and the politicians who encouraged the hundreds of Mostly Peaceful Riots are largely to blame.

    “Sure the murder rate went up- for reasons we may never know- but it’s still well below its all time high, so why are you so worried?” in 5,4,3,2…

  25. Travis says:

    Government lockdowns shuttered schools and businesses which helped fuel the massive protest across America last year. Millions of people out of a job and stuck at home for months was a recipe for civil unrest. The lockdown orders imposed by governors caused millions to lose their jobs while closing schools and forbidding all social gatherings resulted in millions of frustrated, socially isolated people which helped fuel the massive protests across the nation.

    In 2014, we had Ferguson. This was followed by the Baltimore riots a year later. And yet, while these killings sparked BLM protests, serious rioting and property damage were contained to the cities where the shootings actually happened. Not so in the case of the Floyd death, which prompted intense protests, riots, and police violence in almost every American city.

    The protests in response to Floyd’s death provided the only opportunity for millions of bored, frustrated, and out-of-work Americans to let off some steam. With no bar or party to go to on the weekend, no schools to attend and no job, why not engage in protesting? The only acceptable social gathering allowed for months was attending BLM protests. Without the lockdowns the BLM protests would never have spread from Minneapolis to New York City to Seattle…

    Millions of jobless Americans did not have to show up to work or school in the morning, and who therefore had less of a disincentive to participate in protests. At the same time, all of the social alternatives to protesting remained officially closed. Concerts, sporting events, and other forms of mass gatherings were prohibited nationwide. Yet the BLM protests were permitted while all other gatherings were banned.

    It was not the pandemic but the extended lockdowns which fueled the nationwide protests after Floyd’s death in May. Millions of people cut-off from normal social interactions for months created pent up frustrations and the BLM protests were the only way for millions to vent their frustration and interact with others.

  26. anon[421] • Disclaimer says:
    @Steve Sailer

    That’s 660 pounds of water alone, if you’re even close to the San Andreas you could be adding to the risk!

    Don’t forget to change the water out once in a while.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    , @Neuday
  27. Jon says:
    @Average and Harmless

    audience of balding Excel dorks, who were busily buying out their local Costco, cleaning their guns, and preparing to kiss their Asian wives and hapa children goodbye for the last time

    Who can say what is balding and what is thinning, so Snopes says mostly false on that description of me.

    • Agree: ic1000
  28. Rob McX says:

    Either these are troll accounts, or things have gone a lot further than I thought.

  29. @JohnnyWalker123

    He married Soon Yi. If having sex with your wife, before or after your marriage, is a problem, I’m not seeing who is the victim. (Aside from Mia Farrow, who I couldn’t possibly blame for being pissed as hell).

  30. Lurker says:

    Nikole Affirmative Action.


    The anti-Whitism just keeps getting more obvious. Yahoo runs stories like this all day.

    White Yuppies hoped for some nice, domesticated anti-White agenda that only harmed déclassé Whites.

    Dance with the devil, you get burned. It’s fascinating so many riots deliberately targeted “nice” White liberal areas. Those Yuppie chickens, coming home to roost.

  32. Polistra says:

    Needs moar migration stories. Biden says these people are more American than Americans. Do Britain’s leaders say anything similar?

    • Replies: @El Dato
    , @duncsbaby
  33. El Dato says:

    “Devastating” is the meedja version of a used car salesman’s “has a lot of history”.

    He has repeatedly denied the allegations.

    If he has denied it, then it must be true.

    Here’s what you should know about the doc.

    Please tell me LAT meedja man! On second thoughts, go do that thing at the end of “Once upon a time in America”.

  34. El Dato says:

    I will keep Steve’s analysis for … family discussions.

    I also need to upgrade my R skills. I am nowhere near where I want to be in my projects.

  35. @Steve Sailer

    That’s a very thoughtful gift… I just hope the next earthquake appreciates it.

  36. @anon

    It’s supposed to be good for 5 years.

    • Replies: @res
  37. Anon[168] • Disclaimer says:

    The various threads leading off of that tweet show how much fake conspiracy stuff is believed by blacks, and there are references to all kinds of books and movies where they get their information from, such as a mondo style Italian exploitation movie made in Haiti by Italians with the blessing of Papa Doc. How does Twitter allow this kind of stuff when anything that the SPLC or the WHO doesn’t like gets banned? Wouldn’t inflamming blacks with fake information about, e.g.,, slaveowners literally eating blacks, be encouraging domestic violence?

    (The post by limdtx reads as satire to me … but there’s a self-reply to it that doesn’t, so I’m not sure. But the cannibal movie is cited by someone else in there also.)

  38. Anon[168] • Disclaimer says:
    @Steve Sailer

    I got two 55 gallon drums of water for the next earthquake.

    Are they simple steel barrels, or plastic, and do they have spigots toward the bottom?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  39. OT: It seems that when one is electing a Democrat about .3% of signatures are rejected, but when recalling a Democrat 45% of signatures are “not valid.” Seems reasonable.

  40. @Anon

    They are plastic and I bought a pump to use with them. I got them at a survival store in Van Nuys.

    It’s been 27 years since the last big earthquake in the San Fernando Valley. The previous big earthquake was only 23 years before the 1994 one.

    The DWP is ever so slowly finishing a new water main thru the Valley because they don’t expect William “Chinatown” Mulholland’s 1915 water main to survive the next big earthquake. But after a dozen years of construction they still don’t seem to have it finished. So, I feel better having 110 gallons of clean water on hand.

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
  41. Thanks to Sailer’s friend from the community of readers. As a precautionary note, in terms of visual display of statistical information, graphs of cumulative trends can be over-interpreted since they are nonstationary over time (they tend to wander off naturally). I guess that is why Sailer also shows the 7-day moving average graph.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  42. @Reg Cæsar

    I like how Reg pretends to be a Christian to promote the genocide of his people, then turns around and flings ethnic slurs in an un-Christian manner in other posts.

    Troll game shouldn’t be so obvious.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  43. @Peter Johnson

    How else could I graph this data? I think it’s too noisy to show it day by day without distracting. Plus there’s the day-of-the-week issue (more people get murdered on Saturday than Tuesday on average) to distract. I think these two graphs of mine are clearer than City Crime Stat’s own graphs. But I’m open to suggestions for a better graph format.

    • Replies: @Peter Johnson
  44. El Dato says:

    Perservance pays off!

    I suppose the Sudanese refugee was unfazed by social distance rules and plexigalss installation to keep spittle at bay.

    Keep the Chiappa Rhino by your side.

    Meanwhile, Madonna, calls for the “forever death” of the Patriarchy:

    ‘DEATH TO THE PATRIARCHY’: Madonna lashes out at shadowy cabal of men attempting to ‘cut off her life force’

    Pop icon Madonna has complained that a conniving cadre of scheming men has prevented her from reaching her full potential, but some believe that the obscenely wealthy and successful entertainer may be overreacting.

    “The Patriarchy continues to try to crush my neck with their heavy boots, cut off my life force and take away my voice—Even those who call themselves artists…………..You know who you are!!! DEATH TO THE PATRIARCHY! Now and Forever,” Madonna tweeted, including a photograph of herself wearing a glittering tiara.

    “I haven’t been able to achieve my TRUE FORM”

    • Replies: @additionalMike
    , @Ragno
  45. In case somebody has another idea how to deal with it, here’s the basic data for homicide incidents from City Crime Stats:


    Date Cities 19 cities Total 2020 Total Average 2015-2019
    2020-01-15 19 10 6.8
    2020-01-16 19 7 7.4
    2020-01-17 19 12 8.7
    2020-01-18 19 9 9.4
    2020-01-19 19 6 8.2
    2020-01-20 19 11 5.4
    2020-01-21 19 10 9.3
    2020-01-22 19 9 9.4
    2020-01-23 19 11 8.5
    2020-01-24 19 3 7.3
    2020-01-25 19 8 8.0
    2020-01-26 19 9 8.6
    2020-01-27 19 5 5.9
    2020-01-28 19 10 6.8
    2020-01-29 19 9 7.9
    2020-01-30 19 4 3.6
    2020-01-31 19 7 6.5
    2020-02-01 19 9 6.7
    2020-02-02 19 8 5.7
    2020-02-03 19 5 7.4
    2020-02-04 19 6 4.9
    2020-02-05 19 6 5.8
    2020-02-06 19 4 5.6
    2020-02-07 19 8 4.9
    2020-02-08 19 13 7.3
    2020-02-09 19 9 4.3
    2020-02-10 19 9 7.6
    2020-02-11 19 8 5.8
    2020-02-12 19 6 6.9
    2020-02-13 19 5 6.1
    2020-02-14 19 10 5.9
    2020-02-15 19 5 6.4
    2020-02-16 19 6 5.8
    2020-02-17 19 10 6.6
    2020-02-18 19 7 6.9
    2020-02-19 19 7 6.3
    2020-02-20 19 4 6.5
    2020-02-21 19 11 6.6
    2020-02-22 19 13 7.4
    2020-02-23 19 8 6.7
    2020-02-24 19 7 6.2
    2020-02-25 19 6 6.0
    2020-02-26 19 6 6.9
    2020-02-27 19 3 6.4
    2020-02-28 19 10 4.4
    2020-02-29 19 3 6.0
    2020-03-01 19 16 6.5
    2020-03-02 19 8 5.0
    2020-03-03 19 6 5.0
    2020-03-04 19 3 7.4
    2020-03-05 19 6 5.3
    2020-03-06 19 4 4.5
    2020-03-07 19 6 5.9
    2020-03-08 19 9 7.0
    2020-03-09 19 9 6.5
    2020-03-10 19 4 7.8
    2020-03-11 19 4 7.5
    2020-03-12 19 10 6.3
    2020-03-13 19 17 9.0
    2020-03-14 19 10 6.5
    2020-03-15 19 9 7.0
    2020-03-16 19 6 7.9
    2020-03-17 19 8 9.7
    2020-03-18 19 3 8.7
    2020-03-19 19 6 8.1
    2020-03-20 19 4 9.3
    2020-03-21 19 6 6.1
    2020-03-22 19 3 5.9
    2020-03-23 19 4 4.7
    2020-03-24 19 3 8.1
    2020-03-25 19 9 7.1
    2020-03-26 19 9 7.3
    2020-03-27 19 11 5.3
    2020-03-28 19 7 7.2
    2020-03-29 19 11 5.4
    2020-03-30 19 6 6.7
    2020-03-31 19 4 7.8
    2020-04-01 19 14 8.5
    2020-04-02 19 4 7.6
    2020-04-03 19 4 9.0
    2020-04-04 19 8 5.9
    2020-04-05 19 9 5.7
    2020-04-06 19 15 8.4
    2020-04-07 19 18 8.7
    2020-04-08 19 10 9.7
    2020-04-09 19 10 6.3
    2020-04-10 19 18 7.9
    2020-04-11 19 11 8.4
    2020-04-12 19 6 7.0
    2020-04-13 19 9 7.1
    2020-04-14 19 10 6.2
    2020-04-15 19 8 6.7
    2020-04-16 19 6 8.0
    2020-04-17 19 9 9.0
    2020-04-18 19 7 5.6
    2020-04-19 19 14 8.8
    2020-04-20 19 9 6.5
    2020-04-21 19 10 7.3
    2020-04-22 19 4 8.3
    2020-04-23 19 10 8.6
    2020-04-24 19 7 8.8
    2020-04-25 19 6 6.1
    2020-04-26 19 7 6.5
    2020-04-27 19 8 8.8
    2020-04-28 19 10 9.4
    2020-04-29 19 12 7.0
    2020-04-30 19 3 7.9
    2020-05-01 19 8 8.3
    2020-05-02 19 7 9.4
    2020-05-03 19 8 10.2
    2020-05-04 19 10 7.2
    2020-05-05 19 14 5.7
    2020-05-06 19 9 7.5
    2020-05-07 19 11 9.3
    2020-05-08 19 9 7.8
    2020-05-09 19 6 7.8
    2020-05-10 19 9 9.3
    2020-05-11 19 5 8.3
    2020-05-12 19 7 7.6
    2020-05-13 19 13 5.1
    2020-05-14 19 11 11.9
    2020-05-15 19 9 8.7
    2020-05-16 19 12 8.3
    2020-05-17 19 5 6.4
    2020-05-18 19 7 9.7
    2020-05-19 19 11 8.8
    2020-05-20 19 8 8.4
    2020-05-21 19 9 8.3
    2020-05-22 19 10 7.4
    2020-05-23 19 13 11.1
    2020-05-24 19 18 6.9
    2020-05-25 19 12 10.9
    2020-05-26 19 9 9.9
    2020-05-27 19 7 10.5
    2020-05-28 19 16 11.8
    2020-05-29 19 13 9.4
    2020-05-30 19 18 12.1
    2020-05-31 19 37 9.7
    2020-06-01 19 20 9.9
    2020-06-02 19 16 10.1
    2020-06-03 19 14 11.3
    2020-06-04 19 13 6.7
    2020-06-05 19 13 8.8
    2020-06-06 19 13 6.5
    2020-06-07 19 21 6.1
    2020-06-08 19 12 8.8
    2020-06-09 19 8 9.2
    2020-06-10 19 9 9.9
    2020-06-11 19 9 9.4
    2020-06-12 19 7 12.1
    2020-06-13 19 5 10.9
    2020-06-14 19 16 8.9
    2020-06-15 19 12 7.6
    2020-06-16 19 8 12.9
    2020-06-17 19 12 9.5
    2020-06-18 19 14 10.9
    2020-06-19 19 20 9.4
    2020-06-20 19 22 8.2
    2020-06-21 19 15 8.1
    2020-06-22 19 15 10.9
    2020-06-23 19 8 10.1
    2020-06-24 19 14 8.3
    2020-06-25 19 10 7.9
    2020-06-26 19 14 9.4
    2020-06-27 19 16 7.6
    2020-06-28 19 20 12.1
    2020-06-29 19 18 8.9
    2020-06-30 19 7 11.0
    2020-07-01 19 13 5.9
    2020-07-02 19 19 8.6
    2020-07-03 19 14 11.1
    2020-07-04 19 25 8.4
    2020-07-05 19 31 19.5
    2020-07-06 19 16 6.9
    2020-07-07 19 19 7.5
    2020-07-08 19 10 10.3
    2020-07-09 19 11 10.1
    2020-07-10 19 14 9.6
    2020-07-11 19 15 9.8
    2020-07-12 19 16 9.7
    2020-07-13 19 19 10.0
    2020-07-14 19 7 11.2
    2020-07-15 19 11 11.6
    2020-07-16 19 23 6.9
    2020-07-17 19 12 9.7
    2020-07-18 19 15 9.6
    2020-07-19 19 17 10.3
    2020-07-20 19 18 8.7
    2020-07-21 19 17 10.8
    2020-07-22 19 12 10.8
    2020-07-23 19 16 10.3
    2020-07-24 19 14 8.7
    2020-07-25 19 12 9.5
    2020-07-26 19 18 9.0
    2020-07-27 19 9 9.9
    2020-07-28 19 8 11.3
    2020-07-29 19 12 8.6
    2020-07-30 19 3 10.2
    2020-07-31 19 11 9.8
    2020-08-01 19 20 7.9
    2020-08-02 19 10 7.8
    2020-08-03 19 5 10.7
    2020-08-04 19 14 8.1
    2020-08-05 19 8 9.8
    2020-08-06 19 12 8.2
    2020-08-07 19 11 9.9
    2020-08-08 19 12 10.9
    2020-08-09 19 23 10.9
    2020-08-10 19 8 9.0
    2020-08-11 19 11 10.4
    2020-08-12 19 9 8.5
    2020-08-13 19 8 10.2
    2020-08-14 19 25 11.0
    2020-08-15 19 17 10.1
    2020-08-16 19 16 9.8
    2020-08-17 19 8 9.8
    2020-08-18 19 15 10.6
    2020-08-19 19 8 7.6
    2020-08-20 19 15 11.8
    2020-08-21 19 10 9.2
    2020-08-22 19 14 12.9
    2020-08-23 19 12 6.8
    2020-08-24 19 8 7.9
    2020-08-25 19 10 8.6
    2020-08-26 19 16 9.5
    2020-08-27 19 9 10.3
    2020-08-28 19 16 9.6
    2020-08-29 19 11 7.9
    2020-08-30 19 20 8.9
    2020-08-31 19 10 10.0
    2020-09-01 19 13 10.2
    2020-09-02 19 15 10.5
    2020-09-03 19 10 9.2
    2020-09-04 19 13 10.3
    2020-09-05 19 14 10.9
    2020-09-06 19 15 7.1
    2020-09-07 19 19 11.1
    2020-09-08 19 13 6.7
    2020-09-09 19 9 7.9
    2020-09-10 19 17 9.3
    2020-09-11 19 11 9.1
    2020-09-12 19 24 6.0
    2020-09-13 19 14 9.2
    2020-09-14 19 11 8.7
    2020-09-15 19 11 7.7
    2020-09-16 19 13 8.9
    2020-09-17 19 14 7.7
    2020-09-18 19 11 9.8
    2020-09-19 19 6 9.2
    2020-09-20 19 10 7.3
    2020-09-21 19 14 7.5
    2020-09-22 19 10 8.2
    2020-09-23 19 10 8.9
    2020-09-24 19 21 10.1
    2020-09-25 19 9 10.7
    2020-09-26 19 12 8.4
    2020-09-27 19 16 8.4
    2020-09-28 19 10 8.5
    2020-09-29 18 11 10.2
    2020-09-30 18 16 9.1

  46. Patto says:

    Italy was hard hit by coronavirus but experienced a bigger than usual decrease in homicides in the year to July 2020.

  47. @Lot

    Someone wrote אמת on the Venus of Willendorf’s forehead!!

  48. @Steve Sailer

    The cleanliness is not really an issue. You can get iodine and filters. But just having any water may be beneficial in CA, I’d imagine.

  49. @Steve Sailer

    The graph of the %difference in two cumulative trends is useful and informative so I think that it should be shown, along with finite-window e.g., 7 day moving averages. I have no brilliant suggested alternatives — but maybe a somewhat longer moving average window like 28 days might be better?

    The standard error of estimation for the %difference in two cumulative trends grows with the length of the cumulation period (if the day-by-day data has independent errors). There is nothing wrong in showing it but readers should be aware it tends to wander off naturally a little bit over time. The observed trend in the % difference between cumulative figures has to be stronger than implied by the natural growth of the standard error, in order for it to be significant. It is just a minor point of caution.

  50. martin_2 says:

    The problem for white liberal goodie goodie twitterati media establishment types is that IT IS AT THE VERY LEAST A REASONABLE HYPOTHESIS that the increase in murders has been brought about, at least in part, by the trouble and strife that followed the death of Mr Floyd. OTOH goodie goodie whites have to pretend to believe, and try to apply social pressure to intimidate normal people to pretend to believe too, that the cause is one hundred per cent to do with the CoronaVirus.

    The same is true with the controversy that surrounds Race and IQ. Given that Orientals have larger brains than whites, score higher on IQ tests than whites, do all those things that we associate with having a high IQ, doing well at school, committing fewer crimes, etcetera. Given all this and more, it is at the very least a reasonable hypothesis, worth exploring, that Orientals are more intelligent than white people for Racial genetic reasons. But white goodie goodies have to claim it is 100% environmental and no genetic factors play any part whatsoever.

    Of course we all know these theories are more than just reasonable hypotheses, but that is all the ground that the truth affirmers want to take from the liberal reality deniers, but libtards know that their arguments are so feeble that they cannot concede even that.

  51. Spud Boy says:

    “Millions of people out of a job and stuck at home for months was a recipe for civil unrest.”

    The kind of people inclined to commit murder and property damage of the scale we saw are not people who in normal times are gainfully employed.

  52. Jiminy says:

    Look on the bright side, it could be worse. In South Africa last year it was 58 people murdered every day. Looking at the graph, this year is set to be worse.

  53. Thank heaven they were mostly peaceful riots! Imagine how bad it could have been.


  54. Dan Smith says:

    Look at the graph this way: it represents all the murders prevented by active policing before the post Memorial weekend stand down. You’re welcome, black people.

  55. unit472 says:

    San Francisco leftists have been pondering the surge in crime too.

    “San Francisco Supervisor Hillary Ronen, District Attorney Chesa Boudin, and the captain of the police department overseeing the area, held a virtual town hall with residents of the community Wednesday night to address their concerns.

    They attribute what they say is an increase in crime to “economic desperation” and “tourism has gone down so substantially in San Francisco that criminal rings that targeted tourists in areas that tourists frequent no longer have tourists there,” said Supervisor Ronen.”

    While not exactly reassuring to the residents of San Francisco these public officials do have a point. If the predators normal prey disappears predators look for new prey and are willing to take greater risks to find it.

    • Replies: @duncsbaby
  56. @Paperback Writer

    My incarcerated relative watched them go. All of the rest of guys were excited to think, “Will I get out next?!”

    Alas, no. They could have sprung the old farts who would just go home to watch TV and die, but that would make too much sense.

  57. So the three most murderous annual jumps were 1968 (MLK), 2015 (BLM) and 2020 (GF). Why, it’s almost as if American society has a manageably consistent level of violence except for the eruptions of black-inspired unrest

  58. @El Dato

    Yeah, well, menopause is not fun for anyone, but worse for some than others.

  59. @Travis

    History will regard the Lockdowns as the manifestations of mass hysteria a product of pseudoscience promoted by the oligarchs to destroy the working class and restore the power of deep state. The destruction of the economy and bankrupting small businesses were the reason for the lockdowns, rioting and civil unrest were additional benefits which helped elect a new regime with unlimited powers to control the people and dismantle our freedoms.

  60. It would be good if your friend could scrape down even deeper & see if there is any relationship between prisoner Covid releases & violence.

    Also, I read somewhere – I’ve lost the URL – that “experts” were surprised by the situation in a Massachusetts prison. Covid had swept through the population, but most of the prisoners (a) didn’t know they’d been infected (b) survived just fine. I remember it because at the time I thought the virus was a virtual death sentence.

    It turned out to be a death sentence alright but not for the prisoners.

  61. I apologize but Sailer asked about this. His finding is reliably statistically significant using best practice.

    I computed a bootstrapped 99% confidence critical value for the change in new/old cumulative gun deaths between May 27th and September 39th (120 days) assuming that May 27th is the 134th recorded day. I cumulated random histories and for each one took the ratio new/old on the 134th day and the 260th day.

    The actual difference between 2020 and past year’s cumulative gun deaths grew from 12% on May 27th to 30% on September 30th. The difference is 18%.


    In randomly drawn histories (randomly bootstrapping the day ordering from the two 260-day records of gun deaths) this difference will not exceed 9.39% with 99% confidence.

    So the observed difference of 18% is statistically significant with 99% confidence.

    * read in gun deaths data
    open data gundeaths.txt
    data(unit=data,format=free,org=obs) 1 260 thisyear pastyears
    statistics thisyear

    Statistics on Series THISYEAR
    Observations 260
    Sample Mean 10.888462 Variance 25.636160
    Standard Error 5.063216 SE of Sample Mean 0.314007
    t-Statistic (Mean=0) 34.675818 Signif Level (Mean=0) 0.000000
    Skewness 1.183009 Signif Level (Sk=0) 0.000000
    Kurtosis (excess) 2.943689 Signif Level (Ku=0) 0.000000
    Jarque-Bera 154.519583 Signif Level (JB=0) 0.000000

    statistics pastyears

    Statistics on Series PASTYEARS
    Observations 260
    Sample Mean 8.348846 Variance 3.753628
    Standard Error 1.937428 SE of Sample Mean 0.120154
    t-Statistic (Mean=0) 69.484433 Signif Level (Mean=0) 0.000000
    Skewness 0.688852 Signif Level (Sk=0) 0.000007
    Kurtosis (excess) 3.229373 Signif Level (Ku=0) 0.000000
    Jarque-Bera 133.541611 Signif Level (JB=0) 0.000000

    do i=1,10000
    (01.0049) *randomly shuffle the days and create 10,000 bootstrapped histories
    (01.0049) boot entry 1 260
    (01.0086) set shufflepast 1 260 = pastyears(entry(t))
    (01.0147) boot entry 1 260
    (01.0185) set shufflenew 1 260 = thisyear(entry(t))
    (01.0246) * accumulate the two bootstrapped histories
    (01.0246) accumulate shufflepast 1 260 bootcumpast
    (01.0296) accumulate shufflenew 1 260 bootcum2020
    (01.0346) set post_floyd i i = bootcum2020(260)/bootcumpast(260)-bootcum2020(134)/bootcumpast(134)
    (01.0434) end do i
    * find the 95% confidence level of the bootstrapped histories
    statistics(fractiles) post_floyd

    Statistics on Series POST_FLOYD
    Observations 10000
    Sample Mean -0.000037 Variance 0.001702
    Standard Error 0.041252 SE of Sample Mean 0.000413
    t-Statistic (Mean=0) -0.088781 Signif Level (Mean=0) 0.929258
    Skewness -0.047989 Signif Level (Sk=0) 0.050128
    Kurtosis (excess) 0.045163 Signif Level (Ku=0) 0.356752
    Jarque-Bera 4.688203 Signif Level (JB=0) 0.095933

    Minimum -0.158890 Maximum 0.194763
    01-%ile -0.098289 99-%ile 0.093921
    05-%ile -0.068348 95-%ile 0.066371
    10-%ile -0.053231 90-%ile 0.052589
    25-%ile -0.027506 75-%ile 0.028085
    Median 0.000257

  62. res says:
    @Steve Sailer

    Do you have a water filter? I think that’s a useful addition to the emergency kit. The backpacking versions are probably best, but even a Brita etc. is probably better than nothing.

  63. Redman says:

    Guess we know why tuition has spiked so high. Good to know that Ivy professors are still free to speak their minds about some things, like the benefits of recreational heroin.

  64. Neuday says:

    Don’t forget to change the water out once in a while.

    Have you ever tasted LA tap water? It’s undrinkable right out of the tap and is packed with enough chemicals it’s probably “safe” to drink for a decade.

  65. res says:

    Nice work, Steve (and friend). Thanks!

    So, 2020 was the worst year for increase in homicides over the 60 years for which we have reliable data.

    By over 2x (if the trend continues through the end of the year and is representative of the country) if I understand correctly. 30% vs. 12.7%.

    This seems like a good topic to revisit once the full year statistics are available.

    For these 19 cities for which CCS has day by day data through the end of September, they ended the third quarter cumulatively up 30%.

    Nationally, the largest ever one year increase in homicides was murderous 1968, when Martin Luther King’s assassination set off riots, at 12.7% followed by 2015 during the First BLM Era, when murders went up 12.1%. So, 2020 was the worst year for increase in homicides over the 60 years for which we have reliable data.

    Thinking about this some more, I think you want to wait for the full year national statistics before making that comparison. Do you have the full data set for those 60 years? It would be interesting to see the distribution of the annual changes.

    Would probably be worth doing an analysis of both relative and absolute changes since there is so much variation yearly.

    I don’t really trust the pre-WWII data there. This paper has much information on those earlier periods.

  66. Learn the power of “and”, Sailer the CovImbecile.

    Lockdowns AND St. Fentynol = murder.


  67. Mr. Anon says:

    I can imagine that the lockdowns might have made some contribution to the increased murder-rate. There would have been a delay – it’s not like people get cabin fever on day one. That delay would have had to have been at least two months. And, if there was an effect, it was pretty clearly masked by the Summer-of-Floyd festivities.

    However, I think it very likely that the lockdowns contributed to the severity and wide scale of the George Floyd “peaceful protests”, which was even international in scope. There was a lot of pent-up energy, and a lot of people who didn’t have to be somewhere the next day. The unemployed, certainly, but perhaps even a lot of those people who were teleworking. When your teleworking, nobody really knows how you spend your time.

    • Replies: @Patrick McNally
  68. @Steve Sailer

    Oops. Wrong mountain. There is one within the city of Los Angeles, Mt Lukens, which is higher than anything in 28 states.

    Clingman’s Dome is about 1,600 ft higher. The other nine states on the Mississippi don’t have anything close to Mt Lukens. Kentucky comes the closest with Black Mountain (blacks are 0.5% of the surrounding county), but that still almost a thousand feet shorter.

  69. Prosa123 says:
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    I don’t completely blame the transit authority for the overnight shutdown. Skells had completely infested the trains, and so long as the trains were in service it was legally difficult for the police to eject them.

  70. @JohnnyWalker123

    Wow, so different from Allen’s films where he comes across as such a normal, well-adjusted, salt-of-the-earth type guy.

  71. @Mr. Anon

    People can mean different things when saying that “lockdowns caused the rise in crime.” A lot of arguments happen because people don’t clarify how that mean that phrase. Some are probably not even clear their own minds how they mean it.

    1) There is first of all the “poverty motivates crime” thesis which has been widely promoted by Democrats. This argues that if the lockdowns put people out of work then they feel motivated to commit crime as a way of feeding their children. Hence what they really need is not a prison sentence but a welfare check.

    This model can be represented as:

    Lockdown => Poverty => Crime

    2) Then there is the “anarchy enables crime” thesis which I hesitate to attribute to anyone but would normally be more readily associated with a conservative (if not Republican) view. This argues that if people are allowed to ransack stores as a form of reparations for slavery while others tear down statues as a form of LARPing for the 1960s, then the hardened criminals will feel emboldened to go and commit even more severe crimes.

    According to this latter view the people committing escalated murders are not doing it because they need to steal food to nourish a deprived infant. They simply feel that it is now easier for them to get away with something which they wanted to do anyway. Hence the causal chain is:

    Lockdown => Anarchy => Lawlessness => Crime

    Myself, I see a lot of applicability of Model 2. Not so much for Model 1.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    , @Mr. Anon
  72. @RichardTaylor

    Name one ethnic group I have ever “flung slurs” at. Mick, frog, and kraut are endearing terms, like limey, Canuck and Yankee.

    to promote the genocide of his people

    Exactly how is expelling states and counties for insufficient whiteness “the genocide of his people” (i.e., the Anglo-Saxons)? How is 97% white worse than 54% white? It’s better by definition!

    The way to combat genocide is to treat contraceptives like gun rights– appropriate for some races but not for others. Races that need contraceptives more than guns don’t belong here, again, by definition.

    And I’m a “troll” for bringing up the 1811 New Madrid earthquake, the worst in US history. Or was it for directing relocators to lily-white eastern Tennessee?

  73. @Spud Boy

    The protestors arrested in NYC were wealthy college students, lawyers (busted tossing bombs) and teachers instigating violence. Most of the protestors across America were not loony antifa losers. Many were students , who would have been at college and many were teachers I worked with. About half the staff at my high school proudly sent me pictures of them at these protests and many of my students attended these protests. But thanks to the schools being closed they had the time to protest. Many of them would not have bothered protesting if they still had jobs and school.

  74. @Patrick McNally

    Bloody Sunday in Chicago, May 31, 2020, when 17 murders were reported was, I believe, during the looting of the Loop and the Magnificent Mile. I don’t know how many murders directly happened during the riots vs indirectly caused (e.g., the cops are all downtown, now would be a good time to kill that guy who has always gotten on my nerves) vs indirectly psychologically caused: the racial reckoning is here, let’s party! Hey, that guy eating BBQ dissed me. You can’t diss a proud black man during the racial reckoning. Would George Floyd have put up with it? Where’d I put my gun?

    But studying all the murders that day in Chicago might provide some clues.

  75. Mr. Anon says:
    @Patrick McNally

    I wasn’t talking about crime in general, but just rioting and looting. And what I meant was:

    Lockdown => Freetime and restless energy => Rioting and Looting

    Or, as our great or great-great-grandparents might have put it: Idle Hands are the Devil’s Workshop

  76. Mr. Anon says:

    The Establishment doubled down on the idea that rioters and arrest-resisters were the Good Guys

    The George Floyd Youth (GFY).

  77. duncsbaby says:

    He won’t be deported now. He’ll be out in 20 years to wander the streets of the City of Light, unimpeded by too many accusatory white faces.

  78. duncsbaby says:

    They attribute what they say is an increase in crime to “economic desperation” and “tourism has gone down so substantially in San Francisco that criminal rings that targeted tourists in areas that tourists frequent no longer have tourists there,” said Supervisor Ronen.”

    Not having criminals prey on tourists should be job #1 for city leaders of San Francisco but since these are the sacrificial lambs they’ve run out of they now recognize the problem?! It’s all a mystery why that city has so fast become a shit-hole.

  79. 128 says:

    Why are Asians in the US a lot more violet than Asians in Asia, considering that even before the 90s, the US is not really getting the lower quality immigrants from Asia? And why are whites in the US a lot more violent than whites in Western Europe? And poorer white states in the US like Kentucky and West Virginia tend to be more violent than richer white states in the US like Vermont and Maine, whereas this is not the case in Western Europe, where poorer countries like Italy and Spain are not more violent than richer countries like Germany, Belgium, and the UK. Countries like Slovenia, Spain, and Italy are as violent as the least violent US states.

  80. @Polistra

    St. Stephens and St. Agnes School is an Episcopal school. Seems odd Jewish parents would send their kid there. But the public offerings in Alexandria are umm, sub-optimal:

    I guess the thought was better to have him learning about Jesus for 5 minutes/day than being beaten or worse.

  81. @Reg Cæsar

    Tennessee is the only one of the ten states along the Mississippi that has a peak higher than Mount Baldy in the City of Los Angeles

    And once again, you’re wrong. STFU Reg. Babbling codger.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  82. Ragno says:
    @El Dato

    “I haven’t been able to achieve my TRUE FORM”

    No, but when you’re cut off from your supply of virgin’s blood, we kinda get an idea of what that ‘true form’ resembles.

  83. @iDeplorable

    Big deal– I confused Mount San Antonio with Mount Lukens. Steve found it worthy of a reply.

  84. Anonymous[535] • Disclaimer says:

    Phillip Atiba Goff @DrPhilGoff
    #JusticeNerd ™ … CEO @policingequity … Professor @yale … He/him.

    Jeff Asher @Crimealytics
    Co-founder of AH Datalytics (@ahdatalytics) … Former CIA officer. Byline at @fivethirtyeight, @upshotnyt & more.

  85. Somewhat off topic:

    “Black Teen Travels to White Suburb to Commit Mass Shooting, Mainstream Media Remains Silent”

    While the shooter is still on the run and the motive remains unknown, what is known is that Jamel Barnwell travelled from inner-city West Philly to the overwhelmingly white suburb of East Norton in order to perpetrate a random mass shooting at the town’s local popular hangout, Our Town Alley.

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