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From my new Taki’s Magazine column:

Crushing the Coronavirus Curve
Steve Sailer

March 10, 2020

For weeks, the coronavirus news has been paralyzingly bad, leaving President Trump, the Democratic candidates, and the media with little to offer in the way of pragmatic or inspiring leadership on the issue. But over the past few days, data on new infections in Wuhan, China and in South Korea suggest that there might be light at the end of the tunnel.

It now is conceivable that an aggressive response in America could not merely “slow the spread” and “flatten the curve” of this exponentially growing outbreak, but crush it altogether. America’s aim should not be moderation of the epidemic, but its eradication.

Our goal should be not just to lose more slowly and gracefully, but to win.

Read the whole thing there.

 
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  1. Anonymous[286] • Disclaimer says:

    Very interesting article.

    Do you think it is reasonable to expect the third world to also “win” in this regard? India, Indonesia, SSA? This would have to be coupled with ruthless overseas travel restrictions that bypass not only problem countries but any country that accepts travel to/from these areas, I think. Otherwise the virus gets reintroduced and we are in lockdown until we have a vaccine. Or maybe the virus burns itself out in the third world. I don’t know how likely that is.

    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666

    Otherwise the virus gets reintroduced and we are in lockdown until we have a vaccine.
     
    That seems like the precise problem with the Sailer "victory" plan. It has to be simultaneously followed everywhere in the world. Otherwise the victory is only temporary.

    As long as the virus exists, and R is >1 somewhere, it will spread everywhere in due course.

  2. Aggressive. Hmm. What that mean?

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    It means shut down America until May 1st.
    , @J.Ross
    Like New York and not like Washington state.
    , @Eagle Eye
    Israel's top health bureaucrat Moshe Bar Siman-Tov aka "Barsi" agrees with Steve's observation that the important thing is not to overwhelm hospitals (ICU's) by slowing the spread of the infection.

    Barsi appears to enjoy the support of the health minister and Prime Minister Netanyahu. Note the cute Thai-style hand gestures demonstrated by Barsi and Bibi in the picture accompanying the article (link below):


    “Barsi” led an aggressive effort to slow the virus’s penetration into Israel — not because he thought he could stop it, but because slowing its spread would prevent overtaxing Israel’s hospitals and health infrastructures. The thinking was sound, health experts said. Israel only has so many respirators and lung specialists, making the death toll from the virus a function not of the number of people who fall ill, but of the rate at which they do so.

    If the number of ill at any given time could be kept at levels that Israel’s health infrastructure could accommodate, far more would survive infection. Slowing the spread could mean the difference between a few hundred dead by the end of the crisis and many thousands or even more who succumb because hospitals could not treat them properly and ventilators were in short supply.

    It was an unusually effective response to a public health crisis, and some have already suggested that the fact that a government economist was in charge – an economist trained not only to discern trends, but to act quickly and decisively on them – made all the difference.
     

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/meet-barsi-the-ruthless-economist-directing-israels-drastic-virus-fight/
  3. Anonymous[367] • Disclaimer says:
    @obwandiyag
    Aggressive. Hmm. What that mean?

    It means shut down America until May 1st.

    • Replies: @obwandiyag
    With truncheons?
  4. “heroic shutdown measures” === brutal martial law (but that may been the lesser evil)

  5. Xi JinPing is “President for Life” and intends to pick his successor (my Mandarin speaking wife is adamant that I understand this).

    He currently is under political pressure – thus the trip to Wuhan.

  6. I have to say, this might be a generational thing, but I don’t know any rational person under 50 worried about this. On the other hand, my coworkers 48 yr old, and otherwise healthy, husband dropped dead from the regular flu a couple weeks ago. Left a wife and two HS aged kids. Maybe they don’t count because his virus wasn’t special or something.

    There’s-a couple confirmed cases in my country but what am I or my wife and daughter supposed to do? Now my sixty-something father that still traveling for work? Maybe a completely different story…

    • Replies: @Clifford brown
    Report back in a month.

    You are not rational. You simply do not understand exponential growth.
    , @J.Ross
    There's rumors against worrying (we get, with wonderful regularity, a media plague panic every election year: how do the little brainless bastards know?), arguments against worrying (it's the flu, only ROK has respectable numbers from a serious testing effort and their numbers aren't so bad, take flu precautions like you should have already been doing, etc), and arguments about not worrying about yourself (yeah, no kidding the under-fifties aren't scared).
    , @Anonymous
    Some of under 50 have parents or older friends or co-workers. Some under 50s will get severe symptoms and need hospital treatment. If no beds they may die.

    Death from flu is bad and there will be maybe 10-30x as many such deaths.
    , @Jack D

    I don’t know any rational person under 50 worried about this.
     
    It's true that rationally you need not worry (a lot) for your life - 99.5%+ of those under 50 who contract covid will survive. However, this doesn't mean that you shouldn't worry. First of all, most people under 50 have family, friends and co-workers who are over 50 and are at considerably greater risk. 2nd, there are risks to the economy. Maybe you will survive, but will your job survive?

    what am I or my wife and daughter supposed to do?
     
    Follow the published recommendations. Avoid large gatherings and air travel, wash your hands, don't touch your face, etc. Have enough food on hand to spend a couple of weeks at home without having to go out. If everyone in America took a two week staycation starting tomorrow, that would be the end of the epidemic and we could all go back to our lives.
    , @Tex

    I have to say, this might be a generational thing, but I don’t know any rational person under 50 worried about this.
     
    On my lunch break I overheard a couple of bike delivery guys talking about avoiding illness and risks of contracting flu or corona (comparing hand sanitizer no less). These guys are young and fit, they literally make their living off of their physical fitness. They would also be the people most likely to fight off an infection, even a severe one. Yet even these impervious young men know that health isn't taken for granted.
  7. Not sure that we have any longer the kind of country that can win at much of anything, except perhaps the critical ‘war on whiteness’. Isn’t that enough, though, really?

    • Agree: Thea
    • LOL: Father O'Hara
    • Replies: @epebble
    It is not even "any longer" problem; Social engineering has generally failed in this country (we had American Revolution for a reason; If we were law abiding, we would be Canadians). Prohibition, War on Drugs, War on Obesity.... Only success I can think of is War on Tobacco and may be War on Drunk Driving. Can the Civil War be considered a failed Social Engineering project?
  8. This would require massive sacrifice … But, at least there’s now a worthy goal for what all the pain would be for: victory.

    Somehow I doubt the sacrifice would be equally shared. It would be White people doing all the heavy lifting. Blacks and Latinos wouldn’t contribute much. Asians would obey but basically look out for themselves (while cheating if possible).

    • Replies: @Forbes

    Somehow I doubt the sacrifice would be equally shared.
     
    That's the problem/challenge underlying everything in the US. We KNOW the burden of sacrifices are not equally shared--just as the reward of benefits are not equally reaped.

    It's the contradiction of all this social engineering the prog-left keeps shoving down our throats--the shit sandwich no one willingly eats--it doesn't work because equality doesn't exist.

    The only equality aspired in our founding documents is equality before the law--a fairness based on what and not who--and even that is difficult to actualize.
  9. It looks like Sanders is out. I thought he would win Michigan at least. Waiting to see vote turnout to compare Biden’s [cough cough, fraud] result with Republicans who bothered showing up and did not need to; last week it was favorable for the incumbent. Exit polls have blacks almost unanimously for Biden.

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna

    Exit polls have blacks almost unanimously for Biden.
     
    He's their guy all right. And the MSM's guy, and the Establishment's guy, etc etc.

    Payback time's a-coming, and it probably won't be pretty.
    , @J.Ross
    Follow up to this: Joe Biden won with double digit exit poll discrepencies which always favored him. I'm sure Trump will monitor the situation.
    https://postimg.cc/nsJfkq3t
  10. @obwandiyag
    Aggressive. Hmm. What that mean?

    Like New York and not like Washington state.

  11. I’m all for Steve’s idea, assuming it means we all just stay home for a few weeks. It would be interesting to see how that effects the country. I’ve always had a sneaking suspicion that most of what people do every day is unnecessary and would not be missed if stopped for a while.

    How about making it an annual holiday? The Virus Break. Since all the crud like this hits us during the cold, dry months, let’s just all take a holiday at home every year at this time and shut the country down. It could become a tradition. Late Winter Sabbath.

    • Replies: @Coemgen
    The COVID-19 break where you spend a couple weeks in a coma terminating under in death or permanent disability.

    I'll pass. That is, if that is an option.
    , @Anonymous
    I suppose that the 2 week school Christmas break puts a dent in flu transmission every year. Has anyone tried to quantify how much more the flu would spread without that break?
    , @Mr McKenna

    I’m all for Steve’s idea, assuming it means we all just stay home for a few weeks. It would be interesting to see how that affects the country.
     
    The reduction in commercial activity would probably be enough, with various knock-on effects, to produce a cascade of defaults and bring the economy to its knees. The eventual recovery should be dramatic, if we can ever get there. Should be interesting.
    , @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    It could become a tradition. Late Winter Sabbath.
     
    Yes, it's called Lent.

    Heathens and heretics .... tisk tisk.
  12. So what’s the Victory plan? Should we emulate the Chinese and go on lockdown? I think we should, or rather we should have 3 weeks ago. We should lockdown until it causes more harm than good, which I think would be a long time.

    Trump’s the Modern Business Executive as President. Ignore, fudge and manage the numbers, not the underlying reality.

    • Replies: @danand

    “Should we emulate the Chinese and go on lockdown?”
     
    Lugash, I agree with you, think we should go all in for localities that are infected. I’m for Steve’s approach: seek a Victory. But it seems most are OK with, or resigned to, a Vietnam outcome.

    Unfortunately here in the SF bay Area, at least judging by the people interviewed on the local TV news, there does not seem to be much too worry about, and no need to act/take precautions. The typical response of the sub 40 interviewees is that it won’t really affect them much personally, so why should their day to day be disrupted. Not much thought given to potentially disastrous wider societal effects.

    On the other hand most of the big tech companies and universities in Santa Clara County (Silicon valley) have told their employee’s/students to “work/study from home”. I guess maybe the current and future “Googlers” of the world are worth keeping healthy, and alive?

    I say we emulate the chinese; get inside or else:

    https://youtu.be/akeHcnIIqeg

    https://youtu.be/HMLjbaFOTIM
    , @Bert

    Trump’s the Modern Business Executive as President. Ignore, fudge and manage the numbers, not the underlying reality.
     
    Yes, and he was able to ignore the problem because the people affected by it were busy with taking the Nth international trip or cruise of their retirement instead of stocking up on necessities for waiting the epidemic out at home, and most importantly were not pressuring the Administration to institute a lockdown and quarantine for international entries.

    And of course Trump was given cover to "ignore, fudge and manage the numbers" by all the deniers on the internet.
  13. Except, Mr. Sailer, that Trump has stated “It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.” So, if the Chinese leader is risking his health by going to the place of origin where the virus began, why isn’t Trump going to similar areas in the United States?

    And why didn’t your piece also NOTICE the type of policies that Trump, I mean Pence, has put in place, and offer an analysis and a comparison to the responses made by China, Europe, and the U.S. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease expert, on #COVID19: “It doesn’t matter if you’re in a state that has no cases or one case, you have to start taking seriously what you can do now”. So, Mr. Sailer, what say you about Trump’s leadership thus far on this issue?

    Then, you come across as awkward in your position. You excitedly say that a “new idea” has emerged on new cases, but then reluctantly acknowledge that “there is the important question of how much to trust Chinese statistics”. But later on, it is as if you do think the Chinese data is indeed legitimate, and state plainly that “Wuhan’s path offers us the lesson that the new goal should be not to try to merely limit the epidemic, to simply flatten the curve so it doesn’t overwhelm the medical system. Instead, our national goal should be to wipe out the virus, to crush it completely”. However, there is that uncertainty in how you craft your position about China’s reporting and their efforts to combat it, and but in the end, you choose to validate it despite your reservations.

    “I’m all for Steve’s idea, assuming it means we all just stay home for a few weeks.”

    Asking for a friend…So what do other American medical experts say about this course of action, Mr. Sailer? Should we trust their advice even if Trump indicates otherwise? Because, we know that the Center For Disease Control and the Surgeon General are part of the Deep State, right, Mr. Sailer?

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Holy hell man, did Sailer murder your kids or something? Put this guy on the ventilator, stat
    , @Charles Erwin Wilson
    Thank you Corvinus once again.

    No one has succeeded like you in presenting the view from inside your own large colon looking out through your sphincter like you have. We all admire you for elbowing your siblings aside and courageously stepping up to the keyboard.

    What would we do, and what would American society (nay the Entire World (tm)) do without your vantage-informed perspicacity?

    You are a wonder Corvinus, you really are.
    , @ic1000
    Since Sailer is Trump's doppelganger, your analysis is spot-on brilliant. Good thing, too, because if Sailer was an independent person, this caliber of commentary would be dismissed outright, by many readers.
    , @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    Whatta fag!
  14. We need a lockdown and ideas. How about $1000 to anyone who got the EITC this year? What’s the plan for our prisons(see Italy) or our druggies or homeless? China had the former who knew not to get out of line, not sure about their homeless situation. What about college kids on Spring Break right now?

    • Replies: @unit472
    China did have a lot of 'homeless' but of a different kind. Migrant workers caught out of place could not rent quarters in the city they were in because regulations forbade landlords renting to them. So they had to sleep under bridges or on sidewalks same as ours. There may have been more them in that situation than what SF or LA have on a daily basis.

    As for Xi Jinping's personal 'courage' Twitter blogger Jennifer Zeng noted that Xi's alleged 'hospital' visit was not to the prefab 10 day hospital claimed but to another area hospital that was not used for coronavirus cases. They just changed the signs.

    Finally, while in principle I agree with Sailer, I note, besides the homeless, we have the urban underclass many of whom drift between the apartments of their baby moms, grandmothers and other temporary housing arrangements with most of their days spent on the street. de Blasio and others won't even shut the schools because they are too important a venue for the delivery of 'social services' to this population. One could only imagine the cries of 'racism' if blacks end up with a CFR two or three times that of whites. Better to have equal death rates in their way of thinking.
    , @Redneck farmer
    Simple. Make sure the various do-baders that launch lawsuits on behalf of the homeless, druggies, and prisoners all "tragically died from CORVID-19".
  15. I am think you know I live in Chicago. The retards that run our city decided to keep the St Patrick’s Day parade plus the usual 3/17 horror in the Wriglyville bars going.

    • Replies: @JimDandy
    I don't think that's gonna stand, man. I really don't. But you're right--total. retards.
    , @Reg Cæsar

    The retards that run our city decided to keep the St Patrick’s Day parade
     
    The St David's and St Piran's parades went on as scheduled in drizzly Wales and Cornwall, respectively, last week.

    Here's some diversity boilerplate from Cardiff's:


    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fQOb_Iav3Xo&t=5m


    Rewind about a minute, and you can hear it all in Welsh. (Assuming he's saying the same thing...)
    , @Father O'Hara
    The latest news has Pritzker looking at the parade;he seems to be leaning towards "no."
    I get the impression that Lightfoot is kind of a doofus.
  16. Italian anon says it’s bad. Copied assertion below more tag. tldr it went from flu to the movie “Outbreak” in two days, major problem being hospitals, excellent in this case, getting overwhelmed. Military brought in to enforce quarantines, all activities cancelled. Old people with multiple problems don’t even get triaged.

    [MORE]

    This thread is dedicated to all those who are wondering what is going on in Italy.
    I would like to share what is the situation here and ultimately share an advice to all those who will listen: brace for impact.

    I live in a region in the very north of Italy known as Alto-Adige or South Tyrol.
    We are the last region before Austria and our province is arguably the richest in the country.

    We have one of the most advanced healthcare system in Italy with a total of 7 hospitals. I’d like to emphasize that we have 7 hospitals for a population of roughly 500.000 people. And that we have doctors from Italy, Germany, Austria, and Switzerland as our region is officially bilingual (German and Italian).

    The situation is as follows:
    >hospitals are already running at capacity
    >triage tents have been setup in front of hospitals like during wartime
    >if you are over 65 or have comorbidities you will be rejected

    Let’s get more into details of how bad it is:
    >military personnel have been dispatched all over the region
    >checkpoints have been set up on all roads
    >you can’t leave your comune without authorization
    >markets are empty
    >streets are empty
    >all activities have been cancelled
    >universities, research institutions, schools, kindergarten are all closed

    Today it got even worse:
    >officers with masks and gloves knocked on our door
    >took the count of the people in the house
    >reminded that we can’t go outside
    >checked the temperature of everyone
    >told us to disinfect with pure alcohol all surfaces in our house, especially door handles

    Things evolved really quickly.
    Two days ago nobody really cared.
    Yesterday they interrupted all television broadcast. Full quarantine. The whole country. Nobody comes in. Nobody goes out.
    Today military checkpoints were setup. Officers are knocking on your door. You can’t leave. You can’t move. You have to stay indoor.

    This is madness. This doesn’t look like reality anymore.

    • Thanks: ic1000
    • Replies: @Forbes
    I hate to disturb anyone's preconceived notion of socialized healthcare in Italy, but my life-long friend who's a doctor in Tuscany has said for his adult life, that the last thing you want to have happen, if you get sick, is to go to hospital in Italy. Staffing shortages are endemic--not doctors necessarily, but support staff, nurses. You'll get better care at home from your family, i.e. meals, washing, clothing and bedding change--which your family will likely have to do if you're in hospital.

    You need a surgeon--fine, you need a broken bone set and splinted--fine, you have an acute issue for an ER visit--fine. You need chronic care with a hospital stay--that gets iffy,

    Socialized medicine in first world countries, while the actual medicine is on par with medicine elsewhere, the problems/challenges are all the usual with socialism, i.e. cost containment. This means capacity constraints, i.e. capital equipment, facilities, and support staff are all limited. System capacity is built for average, typical needs--what excess capacity exists is for normal fluctuations in demand. There's no (profit) incentive to have reserve or excess capacity because it is a cost-based system where the incentive is to limit costs. Capital equipment, facilities, and staffing are kept to bare minimums.

    Who remembers the 2003 heat wave in Europe which led to 70,000 elderly dead?? The shortcomings in equipment, facilities, staffing in European socialized healthcare was considered the proximate cause of the spike in deaths.
  17. @Buzz Mohawk
    I'm all for Steve's idea, assuming it means we all just stay home for a few weeks. It would be interesting to see how that effects the country. I've always had a sneaking suspicion that most of what people do every day is unnecessary and would not be missed if stopped for a while.

    How about making it an annual holiday? The Virus Break. Since all the crud like this hits us during the cold, dry months, let's just all take a holiday at home every year at this time and shut the country down. It could become a tradition. Late Winter Sabbath.

    The COVID-19 break where you spend a couple weeks in a coma terminating under in death or permanent disability.

    I’ll pass. That is, if that is an option.

  18. Anonymous[309] • Disclaimer says:
    @Buzz Mohawk
    I'm all for Steve's idea, assuming it means we all just stay home for a few weeks. It would be interesting to see how that effects the country. I've always had a sneaking suspicion that most of what people do every day is unnecessary and would not be missed if stopped for a while.

    How about making it an annual holiday? The Virus Break. Since all the crud like this hits us during the cold, dry months, let's just all take a holiday at home every year at this time and shut the country down. It could become a tradition. Late Winter Sabbath.

    I suppose that the 2 week school Christmas break puts a dent in flu transmission every year. Has anyone tried to quantify how much more the flu would spread without that break?

    • Replies: @Cato

    I suppose that the 2 week school Christmas break puts a dent in flu transmission every year. Has anyone tried to quantify how much more the flu would spread without that break?
     
    Excellent research topic. Could do this with difference in differences -- but might be hard to find the control group, since even non-Christian countries tend to follow academic calendars developed in Europe.
  19. Our goal should be not just to lose more slowly and gracefully, but to win.

    Stormin’ Steve Sailer!

    • Agree: PiltdownMan
    • Replies: @RebelWriter
    If you're going to dream, might as well dream big.

    Personally I have no faith whatsoever in our government doing anything in time to effectively deal with this virus. We'll see more effective solutions at the state level, and perhaps the Feds will send the states some money, though, as always with many strings attached. My guts says the horse is already out of the barn. I'm not saying do nothing, but I'm saying it's too late to be early.

    At the Federal level it will be about the optics, with PR stunts substituted for the hard choices of genuine leadership. The profit margins of the elites, posing as the health of major corporations, will be the first priority, and will take precedence over the lives of aged plebs at large. I do agree that a lot of plebs are concerned about their 401K's, but most care more about their parents.

    I see a lot of criticism ahead for Trump, regardless of what he does, but that's the same boat he was already sailing in; the stakes are just a little higher now.

    The great sh!tshow that America has become will now get even sh!ttier.
  20. @Lugash
    We need a lockdown and ideas. How about $1000 to anyone who got the EITC this year? What's the plan for our prisons(see Italy) or our druggies or homeless? China had the former who knew not to get out of line, not sure about their homeless situation. What about college kids on Spring Break right now?

    China did have a lot of ‘homeless’ but of a different kind. Migrant workers caught out of place could not rent quarters in the city they were in because regulations forbade landlords renting to them. So they had to sleep under bridges or on sidewalks same as ours. There may have been more them in that situation than what SF or LA have on a daily basis.

    As for Xi Jinping’s personal ‘courage’ Twitter blogger Jennifer Zeng noted that Xi’s alleged ‘hospital’ visit was not to the prefab 10 day hospital claimed but to another area hospital that was not used for coronavirus cases. They just changed the signs.

    Finally, while in principle I agree with Sailer, I note, besides the homeless, we have the urban underclass many of whom drift between the apartments of their baby moms, grandmothers and other temporary housing arrangements with most of their days spent on the street. de Blasio and others won’t even shut the schools because they are too important a venue for the delivery of ‘social services’ to this population. One could only imagine the cries of ‘racism’ if blacks end up with a CFR two or three times that of whites. Better to have equal death rates in their way of thinking.

    • Replies: @Lockean Proviso
    It's common to see black scooter riders "wearing" their helmets unstrapped and barely on top of their heads so that they look like a double-kerneled peanut. It's a completely useless circumvention of helmet laws, and indicative of the sort of non-compliance we can expect to see in the ghettos with masks and quarantines. Masks on top of the head, around the chin, etc, unless it's time to rob a store or passer-by, then it will be time to wear masks covering nose and mouth.
  21. Upside: this virus is making air travel VERY pleasant. Zero line at check in. Zero line at security — literally. I just walked up to the TSA dude. Numerous empty seats on the plane, giving me a whole row to stretch out. Extra snacks that coach slobs like me don’t usually get. Pleasant, unfrazzled flight attendants. What’s not to like?

    • Replies: @Lot
    Won’t last. They are already consolidating flights and switching to smaller planes when they can’t do that.
    , @danand

    “Pleasant, unfrazzled flight attendants.”
     
    Peterike, hopefully this doesn’t frazzel ‘em as much as it does me:

    “The Transportation Security Administration announced Tuesday that three TSA officers who work at Mineta San Jose International Airport have tested positive for novel coronavirus, also known as COVID-19.

    "The officers are receiving medical care and all TSA employees they have come into contact with over the past 14 days are quarantined at home," the TSA said in a written statement.

    The statement did not say what interactions the officers may have had with the general public.”

     
    Check out right side of this sign:

    https://flic.kr/p/2iD4RGW
    , @Chrisnonymous
    Really? I went Japan-Honolulu-JFK a week ago and everything was normal: full planes, long brown lines at JFK, etc
  22. I’ll say it again.

    The west is ignoring the environmental contamination because of fecal transmission in addition to airborne/aerosol transmission.

    East Asian studies have clearly documented how bathrooms in particular get contaminated. Everyone in Japan knows this. It is why they closed schools right off and are now reaping the rewards.

    This is a reason institutionalized populations are at risk. Outbreaks are occurring most quickly among groups that eat together and share bathrooms.

    Populations least likely to experience severe symptoms are the early spreaders, like kids, young healthy adults, it takes a while to reach the old, sick and weak, less social connections.

    So it circulates without causing impact to local health care, then seemingly explodes out of nowhere with a bunch of pneumonia among the old, sick, and weak.

    That is the pattern thus far, very pernicious.

  23. Anonymous[171] • Disclaimer says:

    okay sailer i think its time you stop posting about this liberal hoax of a “disease.” i call it hoaxpox. you know think 1000 people die if bike accidents – do you hear of panic ot runs on nike maintenance?

    for god’s sake use that noticing part of you and stop spamming us about this same propaganda that is on cnn to be used as an excuse to lock us down for “quarantine” and then stick needles into us for biomarkers for “vaccine” for hoaxpox.

    stay awake stay alert for the plans of the elite

    • Troll: Forbes
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    You are a such a brainlet. There are thousands of videos from China and Italy. It's not a hoax you utter moron.

    Yeah, the entire wire service is just lying that the nation of Italy is on lockdown/quarantine for the next month.

    I am so sick of all the cope posting and rationalizations. The science and your own eyes show you it is far deadlier than the flu.

    If there are a string of robberies on my block that just started out of nowhere, I don't want to hear rationalizations that, "well, in Chicago there are over 300 murders a year." That is not a justification to do nothing. It's not even a relevant fact. I don't care how many bike deaths or flu deaths there are. Coronavirus is a new and deadly problem that we need to solve. Wishing it away is pathetic. You wanna talk about ~the elite~ then let's talk about why they are brainwashing useful idiots like yourself into parroting their talking points of "just the flu bro" so that they can keep their open borders project going full steam ahead. Keep shilling for open borders and more neoliberal bullshit you troglodyte.
  24. The hope of flattening the curve reminds me of the dreary sports cliché that goes back at least to O.J. Simpson in 1968, “You can’t stop O.J., you can only hope to contain him.”

    O.J. is on board with The Struggle.

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
    The Juice is Loose!
  25. Anonymous[334] • Disclaimer says:
    @Corvinus
    Except, Mr. Sailer, that Trump has stated "It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away." So, if the Chinese leader is risking his health by going to the place of origin where the virus began, why isn't Trump going to similar areas in the United States?

    And why didn't your piece also NOTICE the type of policies that Trump, I mean Pence, has put in place, and offer an analysis and a comparison to the responses made by China, Europe, and the U.S. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease expert, on #COVID19: “It doesn't matter if you're in a state that has no cases or one case, you have to start taking seriously what you can do now". So, Mr. Sailer, what say you about Trump's leadership thus far on this issue?

    Then, you come across as awkward in your position. You excitedly say that a "new idea" has emerged on new cases, but then reluctantly acknowledge that "there is the important question of how much to trust Chinese statistics". But later on, it is as if you do think the Chinese data is indeed legitimate, and state plainly that "Wuhan’s path offers us the lesson that the new goal should be not to try to merely limit the epidemic, to simply flatten the curve so it doesn’t overwhelm the medical system. Instead, our national goal should be to wipe out the virus, to crush it completely". However, there is that uncertainty in how you craft your position about China's reporting and their efforts to combat it, and but in the end, you choose to validate it despite your reservations.

    "I’m all for Steve’s idea, assuming it means we all just stay home for a few weeks."

    Asking for a friend...So what do other American medical experts say about this course of action, Mr. Sailer? Should we trust their advice even if Trump indicates otherwise? Because, we know that the Center For Disease Control and the Surgeon General are part of the Deep State, right, Mr. Sailer?

    Holy hell man, did Sailer murder your kids or something? Put this guy on the ventilator, stat

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    Put this guy on the ventilator, stat
     
    Corvinus is a worse virus than Coronavirus.
  26. @Corvinus
    Except, Mr. Sailer, that Trump has stated "It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away." So, if the Chinese leader is risking his health by going to the place of origin where the virus began, why isn't Trump going to similar areas in the United States?

    And why didn't your piece also NOTICE the type of policies that Trump, I mean Pence, has put in place, and offer an analysis and a comparison to the responses made by China, Europe, and the U.S. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease expert, on #COVID19: “It doesn't matter if you're in a state that has no cases or one case, you have to start taking seriously what you can do now". So, Mr. Sailer, what say you about Trump's leadership thus far on this issue?

    Then, you come across as awkward in your position. You excitedly say that a "new idea" has emerged on new cases, but then reluctantly acknowledge that "there is the important question of how much to trust Chinese statistics". But later on, it is as if you do think the Chinese data is indeed legitimate, and state plainly that "Wuhan’s path offers us the lesson that the new goal should be not to try to merely limit the epidemic, to simply flatten the curve so it doesn’t overwhelm the medical system. Instead, our national goal should be to wipe out the virus, to crush it completely". However, there is that uncertainty in how you craft your position about China's reporting and their efforts to combat it, and but in the end, you choose to validate it despite your reservations.

    "I’m all for Steve’s idea, assuming it means we all just stay home for a few weeks."

    Asking for a friend...So what do other American medical experts say about this course of action, Mr. Sailer? Should we trust their advice even if Trump indicates otherwise? Because, we know that the Center For Disease Control and the Surgeon General are part of the Deep State, right, Mr. Sailer?

    Thank you Corvinus once again.

    No one has succeeded like you in presenting the view from inside your own large colon looking out through your sphincter like you have. We all admire you for elbowing your siblings aside and courageously stepping up to the keyboard.

    What would we do, and what would American society (nay the Entire World ™) do without your vantage-informed perspicacity?

    You are a wonder Corvinus, you really are.

    • Replies: @Forbes
    Diarrhea of the mouth is a wonder...well, not exactly a wonder...more like a plague to be avoided...
  27. @Hodag
    I am think you know I live in Chicago. The retards that run our city decided to keep the St Patrick's Day parade plus the usual 3/17 horror in the Wriglyville bars going.

    I don’t think that’s gonna stand, man. I really don’t. But you’re right–total. retards.

  28. @Anonymous
    Very interesting article.

    Do you think it is reasonable to expect the third world to also "win" in this regard? India, Indonesia, SSA? This would have to be coupled with ruthless overseas travel restrictions that bypass not only problem countries but any country that accepts travel to/from these areas, I think. Otherwise the virus gets reintroduced and we are in lockdown until we have a vaccine. Or maybe the virus burns itself out in the third world. I don't know how likely that is.

    Otherwise the virus gets reintroduced and we are in lockdown until we have a vaccine.

    That seems like the precise problem with the Sailer “victory” plan. It has to be simultaneously followed everywhere in the world. Otherwise the victory is only temporary.

    As long as the virus exists, and R is >1 somewhere, it will spread everywhere in due course.

    • Agree: PiltdownMan
    • Replies: @Jack D
    Vaccine is the long term solution. In the past, smallpox, polio, etc. were constant problems for many centuries until a vaccine was introduced.
    , @415 reasons
    Yes, it needs to be coupled with draconian travel restrictions. The good news is that in these areas of the world the virus will burn itself out relatively quickly. There are estimates that in Iran > 1 million people are infected. That’s not that many doubling times from having herd immunity. It’s improbable that we can do this but then again thousands of deaths have a way of focusing the attention. Two weeks ago if you had said all of Italy would be in lockdown it would have seemed improbable too.
  29. Anon[142] • Disclaimer says:

    Getting the RO down is a good goal, but the only real way to do that is to change the disease itself. Even the least infectious version, the S version, still has an RO of 2.3, which is worse than the flu. Since we’ve never made the flu become extinct even though it kills plenty of people every year, we are not competent enough to make Covid-19 go extinct. If we could quarantine the entire world for about 1 month, it would be possible to destroy the virus. This is not possible because the forces of globalism are working hard against quarantine.

    Globalists see the opportunity to make money from globalism, and you can’t turn off a greedy person’s impulse to be greedy any more than you can turn off an alcoholic’s impulse to be an alcoholic. Globalists will only say, what’s a few dead people, and keep on going.

  30. @Hypnotoad666

    Otherwise the virus gets reintroduced and we are in lockdown until we have a vaccine.
     
    That seems like the precise problem with the Sailer "victory" plan. It has to be simultaneously followed everywhere in the world. Otherwise the victory is only temporary.

    As long as the virus exists, and R is >1 somewhere, it will spread everywhere in due course.

    Vaccine is the long term solution. In the past, smallpox, polio, etc. were constant problems for many centuries until a vaccine was introduced.

    • Replies: @Homeschooling Mom in NY
    Yellow fever, typhus, scarlet fever, dysentery, TB, plague and others were also such problems until vaccines... oh wait!
  31. That’s a really good article, Mr. Sailer.

    20 new cases in China in the last 24 hours, and over 4000 new cases elsewhere in the world.

    https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200310-sitrep-50-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=55e904fb_2

    I simply don’t see countries like India, Bangladesh or any of the sub-Saharan countries mounting the kind of responses that well-resourced countries like China or Korea have reacted with. Unless there are natural differences in population resistance (there’s no indication of that in the numbers thus far), or differences in contagiousness due to climate, or there is a rapid en-masse mutation and dominance of a less virulent resultant strain, poor countries are going to look like China did, four weeks ago. Within weeks, perhaps.

    This somewhat long-ish medium.com article really lays out the numbers thus far very well, and the implications for public health. The tone of the article is intentionally intended to alarm and it is far less succint than Mr. Sailer’s. It doesn’t revolve around the heart of the matter, the basic reproduction number, R0.

    https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

  32. @Corvinus
    Except, Mr. Sailer, that Trump has stated "It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away." So, if the Chinese leader is risking his health by going to the place of origin where the virus began, why isn't Trump going to similar areas in the United States?

    And why didn't your piece also NOTICE the type of policies that Trump, I mean Pence, has put in place, and offer an analysis and a comparison to the responses made by China, Europe, and the U.S. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease expert, on #COVID19: “It doesn't matter if you're in a state that has no cases or one case, you have to start taking seriously what you can do now". So, Mr. Sailer, what say you about Trump's leadership thus far on this issue?

    Then, you come across as awkward in your position. You excitedly say that a "new idea" has emerged on new cases, but then reluctantly acknowledge that "there is the important question of how much to trust Chinese statistics". But later on, it is as if you do think the Chinese data is indeed legitimate, and state plainly that "Wuhan’s path offers us the lesson that the new goal should be not to try to merely limit the epidemic, to simply flatten the curve so it doesn’t overwhelm the medical system. Instead, our national goal should be to wipe out the virus, to crush it completely". However, there is that uncertainty in how you craft your position about China's reporting and their efforts to combat it, and but in the end, you choose to validate it despite your reservations.

    "I’m all for Steve’s idea, assuming it means we all just stay home for a few weeks."

    Asking for a friend...So what do other American medical experts say about this course of action, Mr. Sailer? Should we trust their advice even if Trump indicates otherwise? Because, we know that the Center For Disease Control and the Surgeon General are part of the Deep State, right, Mr. Sailer?

    Since Sailer is Trump’s doppelganger, your analysis is spot-on brilliant. Good thing, too, because if Sailer was an independent person, this caliber of commentary would be dismissed outright, by many readers.

  33. Let’s close down the international bazaar and see who is self sufficient?

  34. Anon[249] • Disclaimer says:

    Steve, you misguided bigot. The New Yorker has the scoop from progressive academic public health academic Wendy Palmer.

    No country can simply quarantine its way out of the COVID-19 crisis, Wendy E. Parmet, the director of the Center for Health Policy and Law at Northeastern University, told me. “There are reasons to be skeptical of the efficacy of quarantine for respiratory diseases like coronavirus.” Quarantines can be a useful tool when done well. They can lower infection rates “a bit” and buy time, she said. But they have been done historically in discriminatory and haphazard ways that provide “a seductive illusion of containment.”

    The word Trump does not appear, but they seem to be chomping at the bit to say it. And “norms” are at stake.

    The quarantines in China were misguided and too much, too late, Parmet told me. They have been done in ways that could jeopardize lives, because healthy and ill people are stuck together in vast geographic regions. “In these massive-scale quarantines, you are pushing deeply into potential human-rights violations,” Sauer said. “We have to be careful about everything we condone, whether active or passive. This is the time when social norms can change, and personal liberties are at risk.” By their nature, quarantines encourage xenophobia, division, and the muscular exercise of state power. “There are also long-term political consequences,” she added. “The intangible consequences pushing toward authoritarian rule concerns me a lot.”

    Honestly, why the hell are public health professionals telling us about their political views? Stay in your lane!

    One increasingly common practice has been quarantining passengers returning from so-called hot zones, or countries with numerous coronavirus cases, including China, Italy, Iran, South Korea, and Japan. But, with more than a hundred countries now hit, the requirements needed to effectively quarantine the volume of passengers from so many places could overwhelm systems.

    I don’t see how “systems would be overwhelmed” if the borders were simply closed? You could send most of the air traffic control staff home for a well needed vacation.

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/how-much-of-the-world-will-be-quarantined-by-the-coronavirus

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna

    I don’t see how “systems would be overwhelmed” if the borders were simply closed?
     
    Ahem, Open Borders is a religion and you sir are an apostate.

    “Quarantines can be a useful tool when done well. They can lower infection rates “a bit” and buy time, she said. But they have been done historically in discriminatory and haphazard ways that provide “a seductive illusion of containment.”
     
    That last phrase is masterful. Containment is equated with rape.
    , @Bert
    Parmet is an Ashkenazi surname.
    https://www.northeastern.edu/law/faculty/directory/parmet.html
    , @Chrisnonymous
    I don't agree with you on this one. She has some valid points, and it's nice to see a public health official actually be concerned with the government coercive powers --they 're usually chomping at the bit to use them.

    Of course, the xenophobia part is bullshit, and the borders should be closed. But it's true that quarantines can often give an illusion of safery. For example, I am quarantined right now because I came from Japan, but the city and region I came from are comparable to Manhattan and the greater New York City area. There were no cases of Coronavirus in my area when I left, just a few in my region. Quaratining me is like quarantining everyone from Manhattan because of the cases in New Rochelle. Maybe that's reasonable, but it'snot being done. My quarantine is pointless when you're not quarantining NYC residents as well.

    The bit about intangible consequences is accurate too. You csn see what happened with TSA following 911. We now have a new normal where everyone accepts getting abused by the government. At JFK, I recently got some dumb black dude at security who gave me shit about my socks (Japanese tabi), but I can't tell him he's a fucking idiot because of "national security". There are real consequences to accepting protection.
    , @Servant of Gla'aki

    “In these massive-scale quarantines, you are pushing deeply into potential human-rights violations,” Sauer said.
     
    If governments can not access extraordinary, emergency-level powers during a global pandemic, then what good are they? Perhaps we should revert to anarchism?
  35. @Hodag
    I am think you know I live in Chicago. The retards that run our city decided to keep the St Patrick's Day parade plus the usual 3/17 horror in the Wriglyville bars going.

    The retards that run our city decided to keep the St Patrick’s Day parade

    The St David’s and St Piran’s parades went on as scheduled in drizzly Wales and Cornwall, respectively, last week.

    Here’s some diversity boilerplate from Cardiff’s:

    Rewind about a minute, and you can hear it all in Welsh. (Assuming he’s saying the same thing…)

    • Replies: @StAugustine
    And in France,

    https://www.france24.com/en/20200310-french-mayor-defends-smurf-rally-after-outcry-over-virus
  36. @Buzz Mohawk
    I'm all for Steve's idea, assuming it means we all just stay home for a few weeks. It would be interesting to see how that effects the country. I've always had a sneaking suspicion that most of what people do every day is unnecessary and would not be missed if stopped for a while.

    How about making it an annual holiday? The Virus Break. Since all the crud like this hits us during the cold, dry months, let's just all take a holiday at home every year at this time and shut the country down. It could become a tradition. Late Winter Sabbath.

    I’m all for Steve’s idea, assuming it means we all just stay home for a few weeks. It would be interesting to see how that affects the country.

    The reduction in commercial activity would probably be enough, with various knock-on effects, to produce a cascade of defaults and bring the economy to its knees. The eventual recovery should be dramatic, if we can ever get there. Should be interesting.

  37. @Corvinus
    Except, Mr. Sailer, that Trump has stated "It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away." So, if the Chinese leader is risking his health by going to the place of origin where the virus began, why isn't Trump going to similar areas in the United States?

    And why didn't your piece also NOTICE the type of policies that Trump, I mean Pence, has put in place, and offer an analysis and a comparison to the responses made by China, Europe, and the U.S. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease expert, on #COVID19: “It doesn't matter if you're in a state that has no cases or one case, you have to start taking seriously what you can do now". So, Mr. Sailer, what say you about Trump's leadership thus far on this issue?

    Then, you come across as awkward in your position. You excitedly say that a "new idea" has emerged on new cases, but then reluctantly acknowledge that "there is the important question of how much to trust Chinese statistics". But later on, it is as if you do think the Chinese data is indeed legitimate, and state plainly that "Wuhan’s path offers us the lesson that the new goal should be not to try to merely limit the epidemic, to simply flatten the curve so it doesn’t overwhelm the medical system. Instead, our national goal should be to wipe out the virus, to crush it completely". However, there is that uncertainty in how you craft your position about China's reporting and their efforts to combat it, and but in the end, you choose to validate it despite your reservations.

    "I’m all for Steve’s idea, assuming it means we all just stay home for a few weeks."

    Asking for a friend...So what do other American medical experts say about this course of action, Mr. Sailer? Should we trust their advice even if Trump indicates otherwise? Because, we know that the Center For Disease Control and the Surgeon General are part of the Deep State, right, Mr. Sailer?

    Whatta fag!

  38. @Hypnotoad666

    Otherwise the virus gets reintroduced and we are in lockdown until we have a vaccine.
     
    That seems like the precise problem with the Sailer "victory" plan. It has to be simultaneously followed everywhere in the world. Otherwise the victory is only temporary.

    As long as the virus exists, and R is >1 somewhere, it will spread everywhere in due course.

    Yes, it needs to be coupled with draconian travel restrictions. The good news is that in these areas of the world the virus will burn itself out relatively quickly. There are estimates that in Iran > 1 million people are infected. That’s not that many doubling times from having herd immunity. It’s improbable that we can do this but then again thousands of deaths have a way of focusing the attention. Two weeks ago if you had said all of Italy would be in lockdown it would have seemed improbable too.

    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666

    There are estimates that in Iran > 1 million people are infected. That’s not that many doubling times from having herd immunity
     
    That is a good point about achieving herd immunity in the hard-hit areas. From what I've been hearing, though, they haven't figured out the extent of people's post-infection immunity -- i.e., how strong it is, and how long it lasts.
  39. Seems like they should quarantine Seattle/Vancouver, NYC Metro, and most of the state of California. I was surprised they didnt do this 48 hours ago.

    Is there a complete list of communities with confirmed person to person?

  40. I’ve decided it’s time to start acting like this virus is already in my town, which it probably is since I’m only an hour and a half from Seattle via I-5.

    So what can I, personally, do? Something, it turns out. I interact a lot with the general public at work, so I’m at higher than average risk for infection, and there’s probably not much I can do to change that. However, by being openly and publicly vigilant I can demonstrate to people that this disease is serious, and it’s OK to change your behavior right now. I’ve been wearing gloves when dealing with people and disinfecting surfaces that are commonly touched in full view of customers.

    They appreciate it, and I suspect it’s making an impression. In my own little way, I hope to have an impact on the local culture. If a million people started doing the same in America, right now, I’m certain lives would be saved.

    Masks would really hammer the point home, but they are not easy to get right now, so use whatever works. I think the most important effect of masks, gloves and the like is to demonstrate, through clear, visible signs, that everything is not OK and it’s time for people to take precautions and stay home.

    The message not to panic is wrong, especially if it is intended to keep people complacent. People should be nervous and scared. Fear is a powerful motivating factor. It should be harnessed and directed toward good ends in these circumstances.

  41. Which candidate will embrace victory, Mr Sailer asks. Well, there’s only one candidate who said “We’re going to win so much, you’re going to be so sick and tired of winning”. And sick you are! What a beauty!

    With his yuge brain, he’ll grab Corona bigly.

  42. It crosses my mind that the opening words of Enoch Powell’s 1968 “rivers of blood” speech are apropos to the current situation.


    The supreme function of statesmanship is to provide against preventable evils. In seeking to do so, it encounters obstacles which are deeply rooted in human nature. One is that by the very order of things such evils are not demonstrable until they have occurred: at each stage in their onset there is room for doubt and for dispute whether they be real or imaginary.

    • Agree: Mr McKenna, Bert
    • Replies: @Elli
    An effective response is going to look like an over-reaction, because the epidemic would be contained.

    Politicians are afraid to over-react unless it's fashionable.
    , @AnotherDad
    Agree Piltdown.

    The opening of Enoch Powell's "Rivers of Blood" speech is simply one of the best--i'd say the best--of any political speech. The absolute clarity of truth is stunning.

    Reading it unfortunately highlights what a bunch of pathetic, juvenile, scum sucking nitwits we have as our "leaders" today.
  43. What i want to know is why surgical masks and hand sanitizer are still out of stock.

    Heck, the US produces 15 billion gallons of ethanol a year
    ( https://afdc.energy.gov/data/mobile/10323 ) and even THAT (and isopropyl alcohol) are out.

    China, Korea and Iran apparently have enough disinfectant to (probably uselessly) disinfect their streets and streetsigns apparently and our vaunted consumer economy can’t even bottle some alcohol which we already produce and sell it?

    • Replies: @Redneck farmer
    How do we know they sprayed the streets with alcohol-based disinfectant?
    , @epebble
    There is absolutely no "formula" in hand sanitizer. Go to your liquor store and buy a 750 ml bottle of grain alcohol for about $14 (Oregon price). That is about 190 proof i.e. 95% ethanol. Add 3 parts of that to 1 part of liquid soap (or aloe vera gel) to give some viscosity. If you feel like, you can add some perfume if you have. Just mix them together. It is the ethanol that matters.

    Masks are mostly useless for healthy persons, so don't bother.

    What is tragic is our inability to produce test kits for over a month AFTER China published the RNA sequence and WHO gave the recipe for tests. This was sheer hubris by CDC and we may lose thousands of lives due to this delay. Also tragic would be the lack of sufficient respirators/ventilators based on Italy's experience. These can't be made overnight, so we are going to pay for that dearly (in lives).
  44. @PiltdownMan
    It crosses my mind that the opening words of Enoch Powell's 1968 "rivers of blood" speech are apropos to the current situation.


    The supreme function of statesmanship is to provide against preventable evils. In seeking to do so, it encounters obstacles which are deeply rooted in human nature. One is that by the very order of things such evils are not demonstrable until they have occurred: at each stage in their onset there is room for doubt and for dispute whether they be real or imaginary.

     

    An effective response is going to look like an over-reaction, because the epidemic would be contained.

    Politicians are afraid to over-react unless it’s fashionable.

  45. @Peterike
    Upside: this virus is making air travel VERY pleasant. Zero line at check in. Zero line at security — literally. I just walked up to the TSA dude. Numerous empty seats on the plane, giving me a whole row to stretch out. Extra snacks that coach slobs like me don’t usually get. Pleasant, unfrazzled flight attendants. What’s not to like?

    Won’t last. They are already consolidating flights and switching to smaller planes when they can’t do that.

  46. @J.Ross
    It looks like Sanders is out. I thought he would win Michigan at least. Waiting to see vote turnout to compare Biden's [cough cough, fraud] result with Republicans who bothered showing up and did not need to; last week it was favorable for the incumbent. Exit polls have blacks almost unanimously for Biden.

    Exit polls have blacks almost unanimously for Biden.

    He’s their guy all right. And the MSM’s guy, and the Establishment’s guy, etc etc.

    Payback time’s a-coming, and it probably won’t be pretty.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    I cannot imagine anyone unironically for Biden the man: it must be a case of party loyalty (or Trump derangement syndrome). If Trump does not win by a landslide then we deserve to end as a country. If Elizabeth Warren had had the irrational woman slapped out of her before appearances and demonstrated better apparent intellect than Trump (which for her is a reasonable request) she would make a reasonsble candidate. Biden's not a reasonable candidate, he's not even a candidate. The man has absolutely nothing to commend him. He's the one Democrat who made Trump sound like Noel Coward. Furthermore, if we try to list his qualities, we see everything the woke have targeted as unacceptable.
  47. Anonymous[264] • Disclaimer says:

    Is there a place to buy masks, preferably online? I’ve been trying to buy them since the end of January with no luck. Fortunately, I have a small amount I bought last summer for cleaning a little mold.

  48. @Polynikes
    I have to say, this might be a generational thing, but I don’t know any rational person under 50 worried about this. On the other hand, my coworkers 48 yr old, and otherwise healthy, husband dropped dead from the regular flu a couple weeks ago. Left a wife and two HS aged kids. Maybe they don’t count because his virus wasn’t special or something.


    There’s-a couple confirmed cases in my country but what am I or my wife and daughter supposed to do? Now my sixty-something father that still traveling for work? Maybe a completely different story...

    Report back in a month.

    You are not rational. You simply do not understand exponential growth.

    • Replies: @Polynikes
    Like in S. Korea? Or Tawain?

    Maybe you don’t understand the death rate or statistics in general in relation to all the other dangers out there.



    We’ll talk in a month.
  49. @Anon
    Steve, you misguided bigot. The New Yorker has the scoop from progressive academic public health academic Wendy Palmer.

    No country can simply quarantine its way out of the COVID-19 crisis, Wendy E. Parmet, the director of the Center for Health Policy and Law at Northeastern University, told me. "There are reasons to be skeptical of the efficacy of quarantine for respiratory diseases like coronavirus." Quarantines can be a useful tool when done well. They can lower infection rates "a bit" and buy time, she said. But they have been done historically in discriminatory and haphazard ways that provide "a seductive illusion of containment."
     
    The word Trump does not appear, but they seem to be chomping at the bit to say it. And "norms" are at stake.

    The quarantines in China were misguided and too much, too late, Parmet told me. They have been done in ways that could jeopardize lives, because healthy and ill people are stuck together in vast geographic regions. “In these massive-scale quarantines, you are pushing deeply into potential human-rights violations,” Sauer said. “We have to be careful about everything we condone, whether active or passive. This is the time when social norms can change, and personal liberties are at risk.” By their nature, quarantines encourage xenophobia, division, and the muscular exercise of state power. “There are also long-term political consequences,” she added. “The intangible consequences pushing toward authoritarian rule concerns me a lot.”
     
    Honestly, why the hell are public health professionals telling us about their political views? Stay in your lane!

    One increasingly common practice has been quarantining passengers returning from so-called hot zones, or countries with numerous coronavirus cases, including China, Italy, Iran, South Korea, and Japan. But, with more than a hundred countries now hit, the requirements needed to effectively quarantine the volume of passengers from so many places could overwhelm systems.
     
    I don't see how "systems would be overwhelmed" if the borders were simply closed? You could send most of the air traffic control staff home for a well needed vacation.

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/how-much-of-the-world-will-be-quarantined-by-the-coronavirus

    I don’t see how “systems would be overwhelmed” if the borders were simply closed?

    Ahem, Open Borders is a religion and you sir are an apostate.

    “Quarantines can be a useful tool when done well. They can lower infection rates “a bit” and buy time, she said. But they have been done historically in discriminatory and haphazard ways that provide “a seductive illusion of containment.”

    That last phrase is masterful. Containment is equated with rape.

    • Agree: Coemgen
  50. Great, now, if Trump decides to do this, the NYT will say he got the idea from the White Nationalists over at Unz. Just kidding. No way Trump would ever do this.

  51. Anon[427] • Disclaimer says:

    The WSJ has a really good article today on how China accomplished this, by using telephone companies to track down people’s movements at first, then when it grew to a point where they couldn’t do it anymore, they mobilized community volunteers to man each apartment building to enforce the quarantine. People who were found wondering the streets without a mask or defying quarantine were fined US$1,400 and had to attend mandatory classes in stadiums where students were seated far apart, and were taught all about the virus and the government’s effort to contain it.

    The effort was so successful “experts” in Western countries who originally pooh-pooh it are now taking a second look and saying it may be worth emulating in some fashion, esp. in Italy.

    In the comments section for that article, readers (presumably mostly Americans) roundly chastised the WSJ for “promoting” a “police state”, “communist regime”, one reader said she’d rather die than to live in a country like China, yada yada, a bunch of narcissistic arrogant clueless selfish elves. So you see, it’s not going to happen. We’ll just follow Italy’s route, esp. in WA which is led by a bunch hapless clueless libtards like Jay Inslee. Even the former head of FDA today came out blasting at WA for taking a too relaxed approach and saying we should be more like Cuomo.

    Closing schools early is key, but the libtards running this state are prioritizing “equity” over public safety. I think the Dems running this state are selling out the seniors, who they think tend to be conservative and vote (R), while the Joses and Duanes who don’t have a PC to go online or who rely on public lunch or their parents rely on school as daycare are more likely to be present and future (D) voters. The effing Dems know their priorities.

    • Replies: @Joe Stalin
    "one reader said she’d rather die than to live in a country like China, yada yada, a bunch of narcissistic arrogant clueless selfish elves. So you see, it’s not going to happen."

    Nonsense. Look at how all the gunless, leftist Bostonians obeyed the suggestion that they not go outside their homes when the police were searching for the Boston Marathon bombers. Obedience!
  52. @Mr McKenna

    Exit polls have blacks almost unanimously for Biden.
     
    He's their guy all right. And the MSM's guy, and the Establishment's guy, etc etc.

    Payback time's a-coming, and it probably won't be pretty.

    I cannot imagine anyone unironically for Biden the man: it must be a case of party loyalty (or Trump derangement syndrome). If Trump does not win by a landslide then we deserve to end as a country. If Elizabeth Warren had had the irrational woman slapped out of her before appearances and demonstrated better apparent intellect than Trump (which for her is a reasonable request) she would make a reasonsble candidate. Biden’s not a reasonable candidate, he’s not even a candidate. The man has absolutely nothing to commend him. He’s the one Democrat who made Trump sound like Noel Coward. Furthermore, if we try to list his qualities, we see everything the woke have targeted as unacceptable.

    • Replies: @JimDandy
    It makes me almost wonder if the Dem establishment was afraid Bernie might win.
    , @MBlanc46
    Biden is not this, he’s not that, he’s not the other thing. One thing that he apparently is, is the Dem candidate for president of the USA in 2020. And he’s got to be at least even odds, or better, to win that office. He’s the Dem candidate. That’s all that matters. Tens of millions of people will vote for him solely because of that.
    , @RebelWriter
    No one opposed to Trump will change their vote based on who's on the Dem ticket, and vice versa. This election will be a numbers game, not a popularity contest.
  53. @Polynikes
    I have to say, this might be a generational thing, but I don’t know any rational person under 50 worried about this. On the other hand, my coworkers 48 yr old, and otherwise healthy, husband dropped dead from the regular flu a couple weeks ago. Left a wife and two HS aged kids. Maybe they don’t count because his virus wasn’t special or something.


    There’s-a couple confirmed cases in my country but what am I or my wife and daughter supposed to do? Now my sixty-something father that still traveling for work? Maybe a completely different story...

    There’s rumors against worrying (we get, with wonderful regularity, a media plague panic every election year: how do the little brainless bastards know?), arguments against worrying (it’s the flu, only ROK has respectable numbers from a serious testing effort and their numbers aren’t so bad, take flu precautions like you should have already been doing, etc), and arguments about not worrying about yourself (yeah, no kidding the under-fifties aren’t scared).

  54. @Clifford brown

    The hope of flattening the curve reminds me of the dreary sports cliché that goes back at least to O.J. Simpson in 1968, “You can’t stop O.J., you can only hope to contain him.”
     
    O.J. is on board with The Struggle.

    https://twitter.com/TheRealOJ32/status/1235918997247442944

    The Juice is Loose!

  55. @J.Ross
    I cannot imagine anyone unironically for Biden the man: it must be a case of party loyalty (or Trump derangement syndrome). If Trump does not win by a landslide then we deserve to end as a country. If Elizabeth Warren had had the irrational woman slapped out of her before appearances and demonstrated better apparent intellect than Trump (which for her is a reasonable request) she would make a reasonsble candidate. Biden's not a reasonable candidate, he's not even a candidate. The man has absolutely nothing to commend him. He's the one Democrat who made Trump sound like Noel Coward. Furthermore, if we try to list his qualities, we see everything the woke have targeted as unacceptable.

    It makes me almost wonder if the Dem establishment was afraid Bernie might win.

  56. Define “cases”.

    The chart matters iffcases‘ == ‘people diagnosed with the virus who require a hospital emergency bed‘.

    At present, the proportion of people detected as infected who are graded ‘seriously ill’ is small enough to fail to overwhelm the healthcare resources of a (rapidly-)developing country of a billion people – where the authorities left the thing to run unchecked for almost 6 weeks.

    At recent conferences in the decadent West – with thousands of attendees and a “Wuhan Moishe” glad-handing anyone within arm’s length – the total infected is approximately fuck-all. The number of dead at AIPAC and CPAC is lamentably low (still zero).

    .

    The graphic reproduced in your TakiMag piece seems to include a deliberate attempt to conflate total infections with total cases; it wants people to look at the modelled line as if it’s the number of people who require hospitalisation, rather than the total number of people infected (symptomatic or not; diagnosed or not; serious or not).

    In the ‘early’ stage of exponential growth, ‘cases‘ = f(exp(t×K)) where K is the time-rate of spread of infection and f() is some (unknown) function.

    K is very different from R[0].

    There seems to be some part of the narrative that encourages everyone to think that K is the same as R[0], but it absolutely is not.

    R[0] is estimated from K (which is itself an estimate, because nobody knows how many undiagnosed or asymptomatic infected people there are, or where they are).

    To get from K to R[0] requires assumptions about
    • the exposure time required to cause infection;
    • the period of latent infectiousness;
    • the number of contacts made per unit time by a latently-infected individual.

    Bear in mind all of these inputs are estimates: estimates are uncertain quantities, and when you put uncertain things together, you almost never get a smaller system-wide uncertainty (unless two of the parameters covary negatively).

    Find yourself a SEIR model template, and set it up in Excel and play around with the parameters (a, β, γ and μ) and see how wildly R[0] can vary for a given K (derived from a given N), while still satisfying the accounting condition that S + E + I + R = N (which in itself requires a couple of silly assumptions).

    A very large amount of the numbers being bandied about are so fluffy that they make government budget forecasts look solid.

    I’m certain that the epidemiology community are doing their level best, and it’s the type of field where it’s safe to assume practitioners are genuinely trying to use poor data to make best-efforts estimates.

    However, at the moment the data are just too useless, because there is no accounting that can determine the number of hitherto-undetected, mildly- [or a]symptomatic infected/recovered. These will be the biggest cohort numerically, given the fairly modest number of people tested and the relatively low number of adults who pass to ‘serious’ stages.

    .

    [MORE]

    At the end of the day, governments around the world will do a bunch of flailing around – and when it turns out that fuck-all people die, they will claim that they and their flailings were the main reason nd that they saved us.

    It’s the same schtick that churches have used to save us from other imaginary existential threats (the church schtick performs very poorly when there is an actual existential threat, but those are far rarer).

    Meanwhile, the money spent will go to cronies first and foremost.

    In Australia the former ad-huckster who is currently PM, announced that the first thing to happen next will be a “public awareness campaign” costing $30 million.

    Doubtless his ad-agency mates will be pleased (they will pocket $10m off the top), and it will give the government a nice carrot to dangle in front of major media:

    See this $20m ad spend? be nice and you might get some.”

    • Replies: @Sideshow Bob

    You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that it's an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before.

    -Rahm Emanuel


     

  57. Anonymous[367] • Disclaimer says:

    Neither Biden nor Trump drinks any alcohol. They can’t be trusted.

  58. @Mr McKenna
    Not sure that we have any longer the kind of country that can win at much of anything, except perhaps the critical 'war on whiteness'. Isn't that enough, though, really?

    It is not even “any longer” problem; Social engineering has generally failed in this country (we had American Revolution for a reason; If we were law abiding, we would be Canadians). Prohibition, War on Drugs, War on Obesity…. Only success I can think of is War on Tobacco and may be War on Drunk Driving. Can the Civil War be considered a failed Social Engineering project?

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    You mean the War of Northern Aggression, right?
  59. I’m not sure how helpful this might be, but I do have a suggestion(s) as to how we might lower mortality rates, outside of quarantines and such: (1) aggressively administer a pneumococcal vaccine to all elderly patients in nursing homes if they haven’t already received one (2) triage the remaining stocks to those “at risk” — over 65 and / or immunocompromised just outside outbreak heavy areas; reminder: it takes 1 -2 two weeks to confer resistance. Many hospitalizations and deaths are being caused by secondary pneumonia infections.*

    If we have the stock available (or if we can manufacture more of it quickly), we might also consider having the FDA lower vaccination guidelines to age 30 and strategically vaccinate a larger fraction of the population. Doing so might lower mortality in two ways: fewer deaths from secondary infections and fewer deaths as a result of having our hospital system overloaded. Aside: as much of the population becomes infected and passes the virus, some degree of herd immunity may reduce infection rates in “at risk” populations, lowering overall mortality to less than 1% by the end of the year.

    *Health experts seem puzzled as to why young children are not being made sick by Corona when the explanation seems obvious — admittedly, perhaps too obvious to be true: young children have received exactly the same vaccination I have recommended within the period where the vaccination confers the greatest immunity. Are death rates in Iran higher due to lax vaccination, meaning adults have even less immunity to secondary infections than Westerners vaccinated as children? Obviously, as we age our immune systems become less effective, so that certainly plays a role, but we also often lose immunity to those things we were once vaccinated against as young children. Theory: young children aren’t getting secondary pneumonia because they were vaccinated against the most common strains at around the age of 2 or younger, so even if they get a corona-cold later in elementary school, they don’t get deathly ill like that NYC doctor in ICU with a bacterial lung infection or that guy in Texas — a 30 something — who’s in critical condition. Maybe I’m wrong (possible considering the elderly are particularly susceptible and they get vaccinated … you’d think), but it would seem prudent to perhaps consider this possibility when planning a response. Mass vaccination campaign?

    • Replies: @eugyppius
    Pneumococcal vaccines protect against a bacterial pneumonia, and what is overwhelming healthcare systems in Lombardy are not secondary bacterial infections but viral pneumonia from Covid19.
  60. @Lugash
    We need a lockdown and ideas. How about $1000 to anyone who got the EITC this year? What's the plan for our prisons(see Italy) or our druggies or homeless? China had the former who knew not to get out of line, not sure about their homeless situation. What about college kids on Spring Break right now?

    Simple. Make sure the various do-baders that launch lawsuits on behalf of the homeless, druggies, and prisoners all “tragically died from CORVID-19”.

  61. Some back of the envelope calculations indicate that IF the death toll from coronavirus can be kept in the range of 300,000-400,000 per year it would be the equivalent of everyone in America living in a black neighborhood in Baltimore for the next 12 months. Unpleasant but, for most, survivable so maybe we should look at Sailer’s plan as the equivalent of being quarantined in a Baltimore ‘hood’.

  62. @vhrm
    What i want to know is why surgical masks and hand sanitizer are still out of stock.


    Heck, the US produces 15 billion gallons of ethanol a year
    ( https://afdc.energy.gov/data/mobile/10323 ) and even THAT (and isopropyl alcohol) are out.

    China, Korea and Iran apparently have enough disinfectant to (probably uselessly) disinfect their streets and streetsigns apparently and our vaunted consumer economy can't even bottle some alcohol which we already produce and sell it?

    How do we know they sprayed the streets with alcohol-based disinfectant?

  63. Anonymous[278] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous
    okay sailer i think its time you stop posting about this liberal hoax of a "disease." i call it hoaxpox. you know think 1000 people die if bike accidents - do you hear of panic ot runs on nike maintenance?

    for god's sake use that noticing part of you and stop spamming us about this same propaganda that is on cnn to be used as an excuse to lock us down for "quarantine" and then stick needles into us for biomarkers for "vaccine" for hoaxpox.

    stay awake stay alert for the plans of the elite

    You are a such a brainlet. There are thousands of videos from China and Italy. It’s not a hoax you utter moron.

    Yeah, the entire wire service is just lying that the nation of Italy is on lockdown/quarantine for the next month.

    I am so sick of all the cope posting and rationalizations. The science and your own eyes show you it is far deadlier than the flu.

    If there are a string of robberies on my block that just started out of nowhere, I don’t want to hear rationalizations that, “well, in Chicago there are over 300 murders a year.” That is not a justification to do nothing. It’s not even a relevant fact. I don’t care how many bike deaths or flu deaths there are. Coronavirus is a new and deadly problem that we need to solve. Wishing it away is pathetic. You wanna talk about ~the elite~ then let’s talk about why they are brainwashing useful idiots like yourself into parroting their talking points of “just the flu bro” so that they can keep their open borders project going full steam ahead. Keep shilling for open borders and more neoliberal bullshit you troglodyte.

  64. The Senate must elect Steve Dictator!

  65. @vhrm
    What i want to know is why surgical masks and hand sanitizer are still out of stock.


    Heck, the US produces 15 billion gallons of ethanol a year
    ( https://afdc.energy.gov/data/mobile/10323 ) and even THAT (and isopropyl alcohol) are out.

    China, Korea and Iran apparently have enough disinfectant to (probably uselessly) disinfect their streets and streetsigns apparently and our vaunted consumer economy can't even bottle some alcohol which we already produce and sell it?

    There is absolutely no “formula” in hand sanitizer. Go to your liquor store and buy a 750 ml bottle of grain alcohol for about $14 (Oregon price). That is about 190 proof i.e. 95% ethanol. Add 3 parts of that to 1 part of liquid soap (or aloe vera gel) to give some viscosity. If you feel like, you can add some perfume if you have. Just mix them together. It is the ethanol that matters.

    Masks are mostly useless for healthy persons, so don’t bother.

    What is tragic is our inability to produce test kits for over a month AFTER China published the RNA sequence and WHO gave the recipe for tests. This was sheer hubris by CDC and we may lose thousands of lives due to this delay. Also tragic would be the lack of sufficient respirators/ventilators based on Italy’s experience. These can’t be made overnight, so we are going to pay for that dearly (in lives).

    • Replies: @vhrm
    In my area you can't get such high proof stuff.

    Personally, I'm just using a small spray bottle of 70% isopropyl and it's been alright (i got a few bottles 2 weeks ago while they were still on the shelves and only $3/quart).


    my little rant above though is a bit of shock that there would be bare shelves in America for 3 weeks.

    (Though writing that sentence in reminded there were bare ammo shelves ( esp 22lr and 9mm iirc) for YEARS around Obama's elections. i still can't comprehend where all those rounds went /are. )
    , @Anonymous
    I wonder how the Affirmative Action is working out in the CDC. Diversity is Strength!
  66. @J.Ross
    I cannot imagine anyone unironically for Biden the man: it must be a case of party loyalty (or Trump derangement syndrome). If Trump does not win by a landslide then we deserve to end as a country. If Elizabeth Warren had had the irrational woman slapped out of her before appearances and demonstrated better apparent intellect than Trump (which for her is a reasonable request) she would make a reasonsble candidate. Biden's not a reasonable candidate, he's not even a candidate. The man has absolutely nothing to commend him. He's the one Democrat who made Trump sound like Noel Coward. Furthermore, if we try to list his qualities, we see everything the woke have targeted as unacceptable.

    Biden is not this, he’s not that, he’s not the other thing. One thing that he apparently is, is the Dem candidate for president of the USA in 2020. And he’s got to be at least even odds, or better, to win that office. He’s the Dem candidate. That’s all that matters. Tens of millions of people will vote for him solely because of that.

    • Agree: RebelWriter
  67. As Cochran sums up by quoting Douglas MacArthur:

    There is no substitute for victory.

    Doug wanted to eradicate the problem by following it back to the source, and them sterilise the Chinese re-infection in Korea (by nuking them). However, he learnt from it and in private with JFK and Johnstone MacArthur warned against getting into another Asian land war through involvement in Vietnam.

    Chinese are a unique people. Koreans even more so; they are the least individualistic in the world. I just wonder if with a population that is worried about their social credit score and in a totalitarian state or Korean you could fail to get enough cooperation. It is not clear what Koreans are willing to do (spend couple of hundred dollars on testing and quarantine themselves in their home) would be acquiesced in by Western diverse populations.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/italys-coronavirus-lockdown-shows-why-mass-quarantines-wont-work-in-the-west ROME—A couple of hours before Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte signed an unprecedented novel coronavirus containment decree around 2 a.m. Sunday, the draft document had already leaked.

    Whether it was intentionally given to the press—as most cynical Italians believe—or an honest mistake, it had a predictable outcome. Thousands of people threw whatever they could into suitcases and jumped in their cars or ran for the nearest train station to get the hell out of Dodge (or, rather Milan and Venice) before they were locked in

    It’s by the Amanda Knox guilter witch Barbie Nadeau, not the most persuasive evidence of its value, but still. You know some people would say afterwards that the aggressive approach had made things much worse whether it had or not. But could it? It would be nice to have a model beforehand. Trump would need to know beforehand, because he gets very little credit for anything going right.

    Back in 2011 Dr. W. Ian Lipkin ( John Snow Professor of Epidemiology, and Director of the Center for Infection and Immunity, at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, dubbed a “master virus-hunter” by Zimmer in the New York Times) was being interviewed about the then-just-premiered movie Contagion, which he was an advisor to. Lipkin noted that: ‘The Royal Astronomer, Martin Rees, predicts that a serious biological threat will emerge to claim at least one million lives by 2020. Only time will tell whether he’s right or wrong’.

    Just last week the New Yorker reported that Lipkin ” was dressed for TV—he’d been making the rounds. “I never turn down Fox,” he said. “It’s an opportunity to preach in the wilderness.”. You see what Trump is up against.

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/03/09/a-local-guide-to-the-coronavirus Lipkin said. “On December 31st, researchers there identified it as a coronavirus but said, ‘It’s not highly transmissible.’ So much for that assessment!” He went on, “It’s going to be difficult to know who knew what when.” […] Lipkin was more concerned with the virus itself: how widely it has spread, why some people get it and others don’t, how to counteract it. “The trick with all this is, it’s an arms race,” he said. “The virus is evading you. You want to make sure you keep up with it.” He added that he was “cautiously optimistic” that citizens and governments will now be more careful, and that we can accelerate the development of drugs and a vaccine. Still, he said, “things are going to get shut down. And this virus is probably going to be with us for some time to come. It might become endemic, like measles.”

    • Replies: @anon

    It is not clear what Koreans are willing to do (spend couple of hundred dollars on testing and quarantine themselves in their home) would be acquiesced in by Western diverse populations.
     
    The testing there is free. You only have to pay $132 if you insist on a test despite the medical team determining that it's unnecessary. They have set up drive-thru testing making it convenient and quick. There's nothing particularly oppressive or demanding about what they're doing there. If you've read history, Western populations have certainly gone through worse. This isn't like Londoners stoically going through the Blitz or something.

    https://twitter.com/koryodynasty/status/1233400273013338112
    , @Forbes

    Thousands of people threw whatever they could into suitcases and jumped in their cars or ran for the nearest train station to get the hell out of Dodge
     
    Whaddya think they did in Wuhan on Jan 23?? Five million people evacuated the city.

    Please, spare us the nay-sayers and so-called experts with their predictions. No one has past experience with this particular virus, so all they offer is an uninformed opinion.
  68. Just some points in general response to some comments above:
    1) Covid19 probably won’t be directly, personally dangerous to most people.
    2) Mortality may be be an order of magnitude worse than flu, but low mortality as seen in south korea is contingent on public health interventions, the real numbers are not known, and bare mortality is not why covid19 is dangerous.
    3) Covid19 is dangerous because as the virus reaches older populations, about 10-15% of official infections require respiratory support and icu beds; maybe more than 50% require hospitalisation. Thus even relatively low infection numbers utterly swamp hospitals and resources.
    4) Once the system is overwhelmed, and before a crisis response can be implementd, mortality increases. Right now Italy, seems to be doing its best to provide real numbers, has case mortality at 5%.
    5) The transition from infections among younger healthy populations that look to the healthcare system like a bump in flu cases, to a catastrophe where all your hospitals are overwhelmed with lines out the door, swamped by thousands and thousands of patients suffering pneumonia and respiratory failure, happens in a few days. In Lombardy as of yesterday the official numbers were that over 75% of icu beds had been allocated to covid19 infections. Strict triage measures were first rumored and now acknowledged across media sources. This means only 25% of Lombardy’s icu capacity is now available to patients suffering from all other problems.
    6) The vast majority of new infections go unreported for 2 to 3 weeks, because symptoms lag. Public health measures taken in response to the current dimensions of the pandemic are thus reacting to old news from weeks ago. Thus countries complacent with their “rough flu season” risk locking themselves into real problems weeks before they even know what is happening. By the time the consequences of their current measures are clear to them, the disease has moved on to a new invisible state that will in turn only be apparent in 2-3 weeks.

    • Thanks: ic1000
    • Replies: @Bert
    That is a good summary of why the missed opportunity for serious action by the US government in early February is tragic. Here is one more item though: Easy spread of any pathogen favors mutants which reproduce in the host more rapidly. Such rapid increase in the host causes more damage in it, i.e., the pathogen is more virulent. By taking no action to slow the epidemic, the PTB are favoring that evolutionary outcome, which if it occurs will affect increasingly younger parts of the population.
    , @HammerJack
    We here in the USA have had two months to construct hospitals. More reasonably: extensions to existing hospitals in order to increase capacity. Fast tracking construction using or modifying existing plans.

    Guess how many beds we've added? Yep.

    Two months isn't enough, some may say? Well, we don't need them today: we need them a month from now. And three months is enough to have gotten some additions built. We haven't even tried.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/how-deadly-coronavirus-toll/

  69. anon[112] • Disclaimer says:

    I’m in Seattle now. People are taking Social distancing literally, as the city is pretty empty and everyone is just spread out.

    Skipping school is pretty popular. Skipping work by telecommuting isn’t much of a hardship. They already have one drive through testing center for UW Healthcare staff, and this is pretty much independent of National Testing Programs. Back home, all the moms get their latte’s at the drive through anyway.

    I’m aware of one nursing home that is eliminating visitors, and another that is delivering meals.

    There is no reason why this couldn’t be handled fairly efficiently with good testing. If Trump can’t get the kits out in scale soon, people will never let that lapse go. It’s beyond incompetent.

    It’s an exponential thing, so changing Ro can have interesting effects. Ro has its own distribution with a mean and variance. And if it does race through various subgroups, you need some herd resistance for subsequent flurries. Other countries? Don’t let anyone in without testing and monitor them using cell phones.

    We are going to need some small populations to blow up, to prove the underlying hazard. A prison or two would make a nice controlled experiment. As David Foster Wallace noted, prisons and cruise ships are both total institutions. https://harpers.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/HarpersMagazine-1996-01-0007859.pdf

  70. Anonymous[277] • Disclaimer says:

    To effectively combat a true public-health emergency (e.g., a Spanish Flu-level epidemic) America would have to freeze the economy, fund and empower public health services and massively curtail civil liberties to a degree not seen since WW2. Essentially, we would have to prioritize the good of the collective over that of the individual, and Americans aren’t able to do that very well. The HIV epidemic furnishes a recent example; amongst industrialized countries we were especially hard hit, and even compared to many third-world countries (e.g., Cuba) we did poorly. Although I will say that Cuomo’s actions in NY showed that maybe people are willing to put aside their principles when they perceive the situation is dire.

    I think we are still working with a lot of imperfect data, so the actual values of Ro and CFR are very much open to question. But if this thing is as bad as the Italian reports are making it out to be it seems axiomatic that deaths will run into the tens of thousands at a minimum.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Also, politically this seems like a golden opportunity for Trump: if he acts boldly and decisively he can probably head this thing off at the pass, averting catastrophe and gaining public credibility/trust as well (people generally like Strong Man-type leaders, even in the US). If he defers to the wishes of big business (as I suspect he will) then not only will he make matters worse in the long run, but he'll also come across as weak and ineffectual.
    , @Buzz Mohawk
    When the United States were young, The People shared a concept they called "enlightened self-interest." It was completely compatible with Liberty. It meant that an individual Citizen was able to determine when doing something for his community, or state or nation, would be in his own interest.

    Measures of the type you are suggesting today would fit into that category, if Americans could still think in terms of their enlightened self-interest. They would be protecting themselves individually, as well as the society that produces all they enjoy.

    Your example of HIV is not relevant. In America, that was an epidemic primarily among, and mostly caused by, fools buggering each other.

  71. @Divine Right
    I'm not sure how helpful this might be, but I do have a suggestion(s) as to how we might lower mortality rates, outside of quarantines and such: (1) aggressively administer a pneumococcal vaccine to all elderly patients in nursing homes if they haven't already received one (2) triage the remaining stocks to those "at risk" -- over 65 and / or immunocompromised just outside outbreak heavy areas; reminder: it takes 1 -2 two weeks to confer resistance. Many hospitalizations and deaths are being caused by secondary pneumonia infections.*

    If we have the stock available (or if we can manufacture more of it quickly), we might also consider having the FDA lower vaccination guidelines to age 30 and strategically vaccinate a larger fraction of the population. Doing so might lower mortality in two ways: fewer deaths from secondary infections and fewer deaths as a result of having our hospital system overloaded. Aside: as much of the population becomes infected and passes the virus, some degree of herd immunity may reduce infection rates in "at risk" populations, lowering overall mortality to less than 1% by the end of the year.

    *Health experts seem puzzled as to why young children are not being made sick by Corona when the explanation seems obvious -- admittedly, perhaps too obvious to be true: young children have received exactly the same vaccination I have recommended within the period where the vaccination confers the greatest immunity. Are death rates in Iran higher due to lax vaccination, meaning adults have even less immunity to secondary infections than Westerners vaccinated as children? Obviously, as we age our immune systems become less effective, so that certainly plays a role, but we also often lose immunity to those things we were once vaccinated against as young children. Theory: young children aren't getting secondary pneumonia because they were vaccinated against the most common strains at around the age of 2 or younger, so even if they get a corona-cold later in elementary school, they don't get deathly ill like that NYC doctor in ICU with a bacterial lung infection or that guy in Texas -- a 30 something -- who's in critical condition. Maybe I'm wrong (possible considering the elderly are particularly susceptible and they get vaccinated ... you'd think), but it would seem prudent to perhaps consider this possibility when planning a response. Mass vaccination campaign?

    Pneumococcal vaccines protect against a bacterial pneumonia, and what is overwhelming healthcare systems in Lombardy are not secondary bacterial infections but viral pneumonia from Covid19.

  72. Anonymous[277] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous
    To effectively combat a true public-health emergency (e.g., a Spanish Flu-level epidemic) America would have to freeze the economy, fund and empower public health services and massively curtail civil liberties to a degree not seen since WW2. Essentially, we would have to prioritize the good of the collective over that of the individual, and Americans aren't able to do that very well. The HIV epidemic furnishes a recent example; amongst industrialized countries we were especially hard hit, and even compared to many third-world countries (e.g., Cuba) we did poorly. Although I will say that Cuomo's actions in NY showed that maybe people are willing to put aside their principles when they perceive the situation is dire.

    I think we are still working with a lot of imperfect data, so the actual values of Ro and CFR are very much open to question. But if this thing is as bad as the Italian reports are making it out to be it seems axiomatic that deaths will run into the tens of thousands at a minimum.

    Also, politically this seems like a golden opportunity for Trump: if he acts boldly and decisively he can probably head this thing off at the pass, averting catastrophe and gaining public credibility/trust as well (people generally like Strong Man-type leaders, even in the US). If he defers to the wishes of big business (as I suspect he will) then not only will he make matters worse in the long run, but he’ll also come across as weak and ineffectual.

    • Replies: @Redneck farmer
    And now to election day, the people currently screaming Trump isn't doing enough, will be screaming Trump is a Dictator destroying America! The Deep State press is a problem.
  73. @Peterike
    Upside: this virus is making air travel VERY pleasant. Zero line at check in. Zero line at security — literally. I just walked up to the TSA dude. Numerous empty seats on the plane, giving me a whole row to stretch out. Extra snacks that coach slobs like me don’t usually get. Pleasant, unfrazzled flight attendants. What’s not to like?

    “Pleasant, unfrazzled flight attendants.”

    Peterike, hopefully this doesn’t frazzel ‘em as much as it does me:

    “The Transportation Security Administration announced Tuesday that three TSA officers who work at Mineta San Jose International Airport have tested positive for novel coronavirus, also known as COVID-19.

    “The officers are receiving medical care and all TSA employees they have come into contact with over the past 14 days are quarantined at home,” the TSA said in a written statement.

    The statement did not say what interactions the officers may have had with the general public.”

    Check out right side of this sign:

    51250CAA-F826-434F-99B3-77891E151A25

  74. @Anonymous
    To effectively combat a true public-health emergency (e.g., a Spanish Flu-level epidemic) America would have to freeze the economy, fund and empower public health services and massively curtail civil liberties to a degree not seen since WW2. Essentially, we would have to prioritize the good of the collective over that of the individual, and Americans aren't able to do that very well. The HIV epidemic furnishes a recent example; amongst industrialized countries we were especially hard hit, and even compared to many third-world countries (e.g., Cuba) we did poorly. Although I will say that Cuomo's actions in NY showed that maybe people are willing to put aside their principles when they perceive the situation is dire.

    I think we are still working with a lot of imperfect data, so the actual values of Ro and CFR are very much open to question. But if this thing is as bad as the Italian reports are making it out to be it seems axiomatic that deaths will run into the tens of thousands at a minimum.

    When the United States were young, The People shared a concept they called “enlightened self-interest.” It was completely compatible with Liberty. It meant that an individual Citizen was able to determine when doing something for his community, or state or nation, would be in his own interest.

    Measures of the type you are suggesting today would fit into that category, if Americans could still think in terms of their enlightened self-interest. They would be protecting themselves individually, as well as the society that produces all they enjoy.

    Your example of HIV is not relevant. In America, that was an epidemic primarily among, and mostly caused by, fools buggering each other.

    • Replies: @Joseph Doaks
    And it was the nation's first politically protected virus!
  75. Chancellor Merkel to the rescue once again, she stated that 60-70% of Germans may get the coronavirus:

    “German chancellor, Angela Merkel, reportedly dropped the bombshell figure in a parliamentary session yesterday.

    I’m sure she’s referring to the worst-case scenario, but if so, then they should already be starting to step up containment efforts surely.

    Italy is a good example of the potential struggle that a country may face, especially in terms of the medical situation, and this is mostly in northern Italy so far.

    This is being reported by Bild here. Adding that Merkel has said more events and large gatherings could be cancelled depending on the severity of the outbreak.

    How does one even cope with 60-70% of the population contracting the virus when already 0.01% seems to be challenging enough?”

    • Replies: @Tex

    How does one even cope with 60-70% of the population contracting the virus when already 0.01% seems to be challenging enough?”
     
    Oooh! I know! I know! Have a mass influx of refugees cross the Turkish border.
  76. I’ve been following the coronavirus articles and comments on this site and, of about 7 or 8 articles and a few thousand comments, I could count on the fingers of one hand the statements made about what was done in China or how things are (or were) in China that were factually true.

    Almost every single statement about China’s actions toward virus control, were just rubbish, including the comments on this article.

    Why do you people post all this bullshit? Stupid undocumented claims without a shred of supporting evidence. What do you have in your heads that makes you do this?

    Anon[427] • Disclaimer says:

    ‘People who were found wondering the streets without a mask or defying quarantine were fined US$1,400 and had to attend mandatory classes in stadiums . . .”

    That’s pure bullshit. Did you just make that up or did the NYT or WSJ do it for you?

    And Americans can forget about “winning” anything. The US system is so disorganised and corrupt the CDC can’t even produce tests that produce reliable results – so they do nothing. China can test one million people per day while the US has tested a few thousand in 2.5 months, while deaths are being attributed to influenza. It’s so bad the CDC is “strongly” urging hospitals to NOT test for the coronavirus but for the flu instead.

    If you would like to evaluate your chances of “winning”, read this:

    https://www.globalresearch.ca/covid-19-marketing-usa-misinformation-incompetence-buffoonery/5705948

    • Troll: ben tillman
    • Replies: @James N. Kennett

    China can test one million people per day while the US has tested a few thousand in 2.5 months
     
    Are the million-a-day Chinese tests simply measurements of temperature?
  77. Anonymous[278] • Disclaimer says:

    It really wouldn’t he that hard to ask the country to self-quarantine. Give everyone in the USA $4,000 to stay home for 2 to 3 weeks. Both Bush and Obama handed out cash to stimulate the economy, and if you count tax cuts this would be nothing new. It’s about 1.5 trillion dollars if you count every man woman and child. At this point who balks at 1.5 trillion? The dollar is inflated. If Trump tries to cheapskate his way out of this, it will cost much more in actual dollars in the long run. Ever hired an unlicensed contractor and regretted it? It will be kind of like that but with a million dead bodies to add to the tab.

    Sailer is right, we can win this. But the government must act now. Call your congressman. Call your senator. Call your governor. Call the White House comment line. I am calling everyday. I am always polite, and always ask for action to be taken sooner rather than later.

    Until the quarantine is in effect, take social distancing seriously. Do not eat out. Do not shake hands. Do not go to movies. Buy groceries only, at the least crowded store you know of. Sanitize your hands with alcohol as you exit the store. Keep separate “going out” clothes and “staying in” clothes. Wash going out clothes immediately upon return home., then wash your hands. Spray delivery boxes with lysol and let them sit a while before opening them. Take shoes off outside. Ladies, treat your purse like the dirty shoe it is; do not set it on your kitchen table or bed. Sanitize it often. Sanitize your hands any time you touch cash or a door pull.

    • Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist
    The Hong Kong government is giving everybody about USD1,300 in a straight-up cash handout.

    But then the HK government is sitting on just under half a trillion US dollars in reserves.
    , @Liberty Mike
    Utter alarmist, irrational rubbish.

    Those who promulgate totalitarian prescriptions as the magic elixir should be given a dose of their own medicine: quarantine them at a gulag full of infected Wuhan virus patients.
  78. @epebble
    There is absolutely no "formula" in hand sanitizer. Go to your liquor store and buy a 750 ml bottle of grain alcohol for about $14 (Oregon price). That is about 190 proof i.e. 95% ethanol. Add 3 parts of that to 1 part of liquid soap (or aloe vera gel) to give some viscosity. If you feel like, you can add some perfume if you have. Just mix them together. It is the ethanol that matters.

    Masks are mostly useless for healthy persons, so don't bother.

    What is tragic is our inability to produce test kits for over a month AFTER China published the RNA sequence and WHO gave the recipe for tests. This was sheer hubris by CDC and we may lose thousands of lives due to this delay. Also tragic would be the lack of sufficient respirators/ventilators based on Italy's experience. These can't be made overnight, so we are going to pay for that dearly (in lives).

    In my area you can’t get such high proof stuff.

    Personally, I’m just using a small spray bottle of 70% isopropyl and it’s been alright (i got a few bottles 2 weeks ago while they were still on the shelves and only $3/quart).

    my little rant above though is a bit of shock that there would be bare shelves in America for 3 weeks.

    (Though writing that sentence in reminded there were bare ammo shelves ( esp 22lr and 9mm iirc) for YEARS around Obama’s elections. i still can’t comprehend where all those rounds went /are. )

  79. @Lugash
    So what's the Victory plan? Should we emulate the Chinese and go on lockdown? I think we should, or rather we should have 3 weeks ago. We should lockdown until it causes more harm than good, which I think would be a long time.

    Trump's the Modern Business Executive as President. Ignore, fudge and manage the numbers, not the underlying reality.

    “Should we emulate the Chinese and go on lockdown?”

    Lugash, I agree with you, think we should go all in for localities that are infected. I’m for Steve’s approach: seek a Victory. But it seems most are OK with, or resigned to, a Vietnam outcome.

    Unfortunately here in the SF bay Area, at least judging by the people interviewed on the local TV news, there does not seem to be much too worry about, and no need to act/take precautions. The typical response of the sub 40 interviewees is that it won’t really affect them much personally, so why should their day to day be disrupted. Not much thought given to potentially disastrous wider societal effects.

    On the other hand most of the big tech companies and universities in Santa Clara County (Silicon valley) have told their employee’s/students to “work/study from home”. I guess maybe the current and future “Googlers” of the world are worth keeping healthy, and alive?

    I say we emulate the chinese; get inside or else:

  80. @Reg Cæsar

    The retards that run our city decided to keep the St Patrick’s Day parade
     
    The St David's and St Piran's parades went on as scheduled in drizzly Wales and Cornwall, respectively, last week.

    Here's some diversity boilerplate from Cardiff's:


    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fQOb_Iav3Xo&t=5m


    Rewind about a minute, and you can hear it all in Welsh. (Assuming he's saying the same thing...)
    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    "We must not stop living... it was the chance to say that we are alive," mayor Patrick Leclerc of Landerneau in western France told AFP.
     
    If we don't, the seroterrorists win!
  81. @Lugash
    So what's the Victory plan? Should we emulate the Chinese and go on lockdown? I think we should, or rather we should have 3 weeks ago. We should lockdown until it causes more harm than good, which I think would be a long time.

    Trump's the Modern Business Executive as President. Ignore, fudge and manage the numbers, not the underlying reality.

    Trump’s the Modern Business Executive as President. Ignore, fudge and manage the numbers, not the underlying reality.

    Yes, and he was able to ignore the problem because the people affected by it were busy with taking the Nth international trip or cruise of their retirement instead of stocking up on necessities for waiting the epidemic out at home, and most importantly were not pressuring the Administration to institute a lockdown and quarantine for international entries.

    And of course Trump was given cover to “ignore, fudge and manage the numbers” by all the deniers on the internet.

  82. @eugyppius
    Just some points in general response to some comments above:
    1) Covid19 probably won't be directly, personally dangerous to most people.
    2) Mortality may be be an order of magnitude worse than flu, but low mortality as seen in south korea is contingent on public health interventions, the real numbers are not known, and bare mortality is not why covid19 is dangerous.
    3) Covid19 is dangerous because as the virus reaches older populations, about 10-15% of official infections require respiratory support and icu beds; maybe more than 50% require hospitalisation. Thus even relatively low infection numbers utterly swamp hospitals and resources.
    4) Once the system is overwhelmed, and before a crisis response can be implementd, mortality increases. Right now Italy, seems to be doing its best to provide real numbers, has case mortality at 5%.
    5) The transition from infections among younger healthy populations that look to the healthcare system like a bump in flu cases, to a catastrophe where all your hospitals are overwhelmed with lines out the door, swamped by thousands and thousands of patients suffering pneumonia and respiratory failure, happens in a few days. In Lombardy as of yesterday the official numbers were that over 75% of icu beds had been allocated to covid19 infections. Strict triage measures were first rumored and now acknowledged across media sources. This means only 25% of Lombardy's icu capacity is now available to patients suffering from all other problems.
    6) The vast majority of new infections go unreported for 2 to 3 weeks, because symptoms lag. Public health measures taken in response to the current dimensions of the pandemic are thus reacting to old news from weeks ago. Thus countries complacent with their "rough flu season" risk locking themselves into real problems weeks before they even know what is happening. By the time the consequences of their current measures are clear to them, the disease has moved on to a new invisible state that will in turn only be apparent in 2-3 weeks.

    That is a good summary of why the missed opportunity for serious action by the US government in early February is tragic. Here is one more item though: Easy spread of any pathogen favors mutants which reproduce in the host more rapidly. Such rapid increase in the host causes more damage in it, i.e., the pathogen is more virulent. By taking no action to slow the epidemic, the PTB are favoring that evolutionary outcome, which if it occurs will affect increasingly younger parts of the population.

  83. @unit472
    China did have a lot of 'homeless' but of a different kind. Migrant workers caught out of place could not rent quarters in the city they were in because regulations forbade landlords renting to them. So they had to sleep under bridges or on sidewalks same as ours. There may have been more them in that situation than what SF or LA have on a daily basis.

    As for Xi Jinping's personal 'courage' Twitter blogger Jennifer Zeng noted that Xi's alleged 'hospital' visit was not to the prefab 10 day hospital claimed but to another area hospital that was not used for coronavirus cases. They just changed the signs.

    Finally, while in principle I agree with Sailer, I note, besides the homeless, we have the urban underclass many of whom drift between the apartments of their baby moms, grandmothers and other temporary housing arrangements with most of their days spent on the street. de Blasio and others won't even shut the schools because they are too important a venue for the delivery of 'social services' to this population. One could only imagine the cries of 'racism' if blacks end up with a CFR two or three times that of whites. Better to have equal death rates in their way of thinking.

    It’s common to see black scooter riders “wearing” their helmets unstrapped and barely on top of their heads so that they look like a double-kerneled peanut. It’s a completely useless circumvention of helmet laws, and indicative of the sort of non-compliance we can expect to see in the ghettos with masks and quarantines. Masks on top of the head, around the chin, etc, unless it’s time to rob a store or passer-by, then it will be time to wear masks covering nose and mouth.

    • Replies: @Harry Baldwin
    black scooter riders “wearing” their helmets unstrapped and barely on top of their heads

    Isn't this consistent with the way they "wear" their trousers, i.e., unbelted, below ass?
  84. @Anon
    Steve, you misguided bigot. The New Yorker has the scoop from progressive academic public health academic Wendy Palmer.

    No country can simply quarantine its way out of the COVID-19 crisis, Wendy E. Parmet, the director of the Center for Health Policy and Law at Northeastern University, told me. "There are reasons to be skeptical of the efficacy of quarantine for respiratory diseases like coronavirus." Quarantines can be a useful tool when done well. They can lower infection rates "a bit" and buy time, she said. But they have been done historically in discriminatory and haphazard ways that provide "a seductive illusion of containment."
     
    The word Trump does not appear, but they seem to be chomping at the bit to say it. And "norms" are at stake.

    The quarantines in China were misguided and too much, too late, Parmet told me. They have been done in ways that could jeopardize lives, because healthy and ill people are stuck together in vast geographic regions. “In these massive-scale quarantines, you are pushing deeply into potential human-rights violations,” Sauer said. “We have to be careful about everything we condone, whether active or passive. This is the time when social norms can change, and personal liberties are at risk.” By their nature, quarantines encourage xenophobia, division, and the muscular exercise of state power. “There are also long-term political consequences,” she added. “The intangible consequences pushing toward authoritarian rule concerns me a lot.”
     
    Honestly, why the hell are public health professionals telling us about their political views? Stay in your lane!

    One increasingly common practice has been quarantining passengers returning from so-called hot zones, or countries with numerous coronavirus cases, including China, Italy, Iran, South Korea, and Japan. But, with more than a hundred countries now hit, the requirements needed to effectively quarantine the volume of passengers from so many places could overwhelm systems.
     
    I don't see how "systems would be overwhelmed" if the borders were simply closed? You could send most of the air traffic control staff home for a well needed vacation.

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/how-much-of-the-world-will-be-quarantined-by-the-coronavirus
  85. 1. Chloroquine, an anti-malarial drug, has been found to be effective – “Notably, two compounds remdesivir (EC50 = 0.77 μM; CC50 > 100 μM; SI > 129.87) and chloroquine (EC50 = 1.13 μM; CC50 > 100 μM, SI > 88.50) potently blocked virus infection at low-micromolar concentration and showed high SI (Fig. 1a, b).” 
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0

    2. BEIJING, Feb. 17 (Xinhua) — Chinese experts, based on the result of clinical trials, have confirmed that Chloroquine Phosphate, an antimalarial drug, has a certain curative effect on the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), a Chinese official said here Monday. The experts have “unanimously” suggested the drug be included in the next version of the treatment guidelines and applied in wider clinical trials as soon as possible, Sun Yanrong, deputy head of the China National Center for Biotechnology Development under the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST), said at a press conference. Chloroquine Phosphate, which has been used for more than 70 years, was selected from tens of thousands of existing drugs after multiple rounds of screening, Sun said. According to her, the drug has been under clinical trials in over 10 hospitals in Beijing, as well as in south China’s Guangdong Province and central China’s Hunan Province, and has shown fairly good efficacy. In the trials, the groups of patients who had taken the drug have shown better indicators than their parallel groups, in abatement of fever, improvement of CT images of lungs, the percentage of patients who became negative in viral nucleic acid tests and the time they need to do so, she said. Patients taking the drug also take a shorter time to recover, she added. Sun gave an example of a 54-year-old patient in Beijing, who was admitted to hospital four days after showing symptoms. After taking the drug for a week, he saw all indicators improve and the nucleic acid turn negative.” http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-02/17/c_138792545.htm

    3. “Chloroquine was discovered in 1934 by Hans Andersag.[3][4] It is on the World Health Organization’s List of Essential Medicines, the safest and most effective medicines needed in a health system.[5] It is available as a generic medication.[1] The wholesale cost in the developing world is about US$0.04.[6] In the United States, it costs about US$5.30 per dose.[1]” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chloroquine

    You’ll never hear about this in US media. The Chinese are putting a big effort into finding cures and are doing so – and putting out papers… but mainstream media just haven’t figured it out, besides hysteria sells more stuff.

    • Thanks: Dieter Kief
    • Replies: @Redneck farmer
    Anytime someone suggests easing up approval rules for new drugs in the US, the story is Big Pharma Wants To Up Its Profits And Cause You To Die. Unless it's a product to prevent pregnancy, then it's OK.
    , @anon
    Hey

    CHLOROQUINE is used to treat or prevent malaria infections. It is also used to treat amebiasis. The lowest GoodRx price for the most common version of generic Aralen is around $74.38, 84% off the average retail price of $494.50.
     
    Someone is getting paid. So we will here about it.
    , @Coemgen
    Sounds too good to be true.
  86. @Anonymous
    It really wouldn't he that hard to ask the country to self-quarantine. Give everyone in the USA $4,000 to stay home for 2 to 3 weeks. Both Bush and Obama handed out cash to stimulate the economy, and if you count tax cuts this would be nothing new. It's about 1.5 trillion dollars if you count every man woman and child. At this point who balks at 1.5 trillion? The dollar is inflated. If Trump tries to cheapskate his way out of this, it will cost much more in actual dollars in the long run. Ever hired an unlicensed contractor and regretted it? It will be kind of like that but with a million dead bodies to add to the tab.

    Sailer is right, we can win this. But the government must act now. Call your congressman. Call your senator. Call your governor. Call the White House comment line. I am calling everyday. I am always polite, and always ask for action to be taken sooner rather than later.

    Until the quarantine is in effect, take social distancing seriously. Do not eat out. Do not shake hands. Do not go to movies. Buy groceries only, at the least crowded store you know of. Sanitize your hands with alcohol as you exit the store. Keep separate "going out" clothes and "staying in" clothes. Wash going out clothes immediately upon return home., then wash your hands. Spray delivery boxes with lysol and let them sit a while before opening them. Take shoes off outside. Ladies, treat your purse like the dirty shoe it is; do not set it on your kitchen table or bed. Sanitize it often. Sanitize your hands any time you touch cash or a door pull.

    The Hong Kong government is giving everybody about USD1,300 in a straight-up cash handout.

    But then the HK government is sitting on just under half a trillion US dollars in reserves.

  87. Anonymous[286] • Disclaimer says:
    @Polynikes
    I have to say, this might be a generational thing, but I don’t know any rational person under 50 worried about this. On the other hand, my coworkers 48 yr old, and otherwise healthy, husband dropped dead from the regular flu a couple weeks ago. Left a wife and two HS aged kids. Maybe they don’t count because his virus wasn’t special or something.


    There’s-a couple confirmed cases in my country but what am I or my wife and daughter supposed to do? Now my sixty-something father that still traveling for work? Maybe a completely different story...

    Some of under 50 have parents or older friends or co-workers. Some under 50s will get severe symptoms and need hospital treatment. If no beds they may die.

    Death from flu is bad and there will be maybe 10-30x as many such deaths.

  88. Anonymous[425] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous
    Holy hell man, did Sailer murder your kids or something? Put this guy on the ventilator, stat

    Put this guy on the ventilator, stat

    Corvinus is a worse virus than Coronavirus.

    • LOL: Harry Baldwin
  89. @Hodag
    I am think you know I live in Chicago. The retards that run our city decided to keep the St Patrick's Day parade plus the usual 3/17 horror in the Wriglyville bars going.

    The latest news has Pritzker looking at the parade;he seems to be leaning towards “no.”
    I get the impression that Lightfoot is kind of a doofus.

  90. @Clifford brown
    Report back in a month.

    You are not rational. You simply do not understand exponential growth.

    Like in S. Korea? Or Tawain?

    Maybe you don’t understand the death rate or statistics in general in relation to all the other dangers out there.

    We’ll talk in a month.

    • Replies: @eugyppius

    Like in S. Korea? Or Tawain?

     

    South Korea, which totally separately from emergency measures in Daegu, has closed schools until 22 March, paid businesses to let their employees stay home, organised emergency childcare services for essential workers, taken control of mask distribution and ensured everyone wears one in public, organised military hospitals to treat infected patients. They have had a mild epidemic with low mortality.

    Taiwan, which had its first case on 21 January and by 2 February closed all schools until the 25th. Taiwan, which forbade the export of medical supplies like thermometers, mobilized soldiers to assist manufacturing masks and rationed and organised their distribution. They have had a mild epidemic with low mortality.

    Nobody in the west is doing that. In the west, we have open schools (so symptomless kids can spread it) and no masks in public (so anyone on public transit can get it) and everybody outside Italy is still at work (so everyone in your office will be exposed, and then their families, and then their kids...).
  91. @Anonymous
    Also, politically this seems like a golden opportunity for Trump: if he acts boldly and decisively he can probably head this thing off at the pass, averting catastrophe and gaining public credibility/trust as well (people generally like Strong Man-type leaders, even in the US). If he defers to the wishes of big business (as I suspect he will) then not only will he make matters worse in the long run, but he'll also come across as weak and ineffectual.

    And now to election day, the people currently screaming Trump isn’t doing enough, will be screaming Trump is a Dictator destroying America! The Deep State press is a problem.

    • Replies: @Pericles
    Look, it's just open borders and globalism as usual, what are you people complaining about? You are getting exactly what you have been screaming hysterically about the last few years. So just enjoy the situation and be assured Judge Powerbottom from Frisco will stop any and all attempts to restrain whatever happens until the clock has run out a few more times and the SC led by the Ghost of RBG has pondered things for a while. Now kids, who can collect the most Corona-chan strains before summer?
  92. @epebble
    There is absolutely no "formula" in hand sanitizer. Go to your liquor store and buy a 750 ml bottle of grain alcohol for about $14 (Oregon price). That is about 190 proof i.e. 95% ethanol. Add 3 parts of that to 1 part of liquid soap (or aloe vera gel) to give some viscosity. If you feel like, you can add some perfume if you have. Just mix them together. It is the ethanol that matters.

    Masks are mostly useless for healthy persons, so don't bother.

    What is tragic is our inability to produce test kits for over a month AFTER China published the RNA sequence and WHO gave the recipe for tests. This was sheer hubris by CDC and we may lose thousands of lives due to this delay. Also tragic would be the lack of sufficient respirators/ventilators based on Italy's experience. These can't be made overnight, so we are going to pay for that dearly (in lives).

    I wonder how the Affirmative Action is working out in the CDC. Diversity is Strength!

  93. This is an important article Steve, I hope someone in the Trump Administration reads it. I took the liberty of excerpting it on my blog with a link. Thank you for writing it…Hope it makes a difference!

  94. @streamfortyseven
    1. Chloroquine, an anti-malarial drug, has been found to be effective – “Notably, two compounds remdesivir (EC50 = 0.77 μM; CC50 > 100 μM; SI > 129.87) and chloroquine (EC50 = 1.13 μM; CC50 > 100 μM, SI > 88.50) potently blocked virus infection at low-micromolar concentration and showed high SI (Fig. 1a, b).” 
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0

    2. BEIJING, Feb. 17 (Xinhua) -- Chinese experts, based on the result of clinical trials, have confirmed that Chloroquine Phosphate, an antimalarial drug, has a certain curative effect on the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), a Chinese official said here Monday. The experts have "unanimously" suggested the drug be included in the next version of the treatment guidelines and applied in wider clinical trials as soon as possible, Sun Yanrong, deputy head of the China National Center for Biotechnology Development under the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST), said at a press conference. Chloroquine Phosphate, which has been used for more than 70 years, was selected from tens of thousands of existing drugs after multiple rounds of screening, Sun said. According to her, the drug has been under clinical trials in over 10 hospitals in Beijing, as well as in south China's Guangdong Province and central China's Hunan Province, and has shown fairly good efficacy. In the trials, the groups of patients who had taken the drug have shown better indicators than their parallel groups, in abatement of fever, improvement of CT images of lungs, the percentage of patients who became negative in viral nucleic acid tests and the time they need to do so, she said. Patients taking the drug also take a shorter time to recover, she added. Sun gave an example of a 54-year-old patient in Beijing, who was admitted to hospital four days after showing symptoms. After taking the drug for a week, he saw all indicators improve and the nucleic acid turn negative.” http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-02/17/c_138792545.htm

    3. “Chloroquine was discovered in 1934 by Hans Andersag.[3][4] It is on the World Health Organization’s List of Essential Medicines, the safest and most effective medicines needed in a health system.[5] It is available as a generic medication.[1] The wholesale cost in the developing world is about US$0.04.[6] In the United States, it costs about US$5.30 per dose.[1]” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chloroquine

    You'll never hear about this in US media. The Chinese are putting a big effort into finding cures and are doing so - and putting out papers... but mainstream media just haven't figured it out, besides hysteria sells more stuff.

    Anytime someone suggests easing up approval rules for new drugs in the US, the story is Big Pharma Wants To Up Its Profits And Cause You To Die. Unless it’s a product to prevent pregnancy, then it’s OK.

  95. As an alternative, this crisis could be a great opportunity to reach out and shake the hands of your enemies.

  96. @Lockean Proviso
    It's common to see black scooter riders "wearing" their helmets unstrapped and barely on top of their heads so that they look like a double-kerneled peanut. It's a completely useless circumvention of helmet laws, and indicative of the sort of non-compliance we can expect to see in the ghettos with masks and quarantines. Masks on top of the head, around the chin, etc, unless it's time to rob a store or passer-by, then it will be time to wear masks covering nose and mouth.

    black scooter riders “wearing” their helmets unstrapped and barely on top of their heads

    Isn’t this consistent with the way they “wear” their trousers, i.e., unbelted, below ass?

    • Agree: Lockean Proviso
  97. @Redneck farmer
    And now to election day, the people currently screaming Trump isn't doing enough, will be screaming Trump is a Dictator destroying America! The Deep State press is a problem.

    Look, it’s just open borders and globalism as usual, what are you people complaining about? You are getting exactly what you have been screaming hysterically about the last few years. So just enjoy the situation and be assured Judge Powerbottom from Frisco will stop any and all attempts to restrain whatever happens until the clock has run out a few more times and the SC led by the Ghost of RBG has pondered things for a while. Now kids, who can collect the most Corona-chan strains before summer?

  98. @epebble
    It is not even "any longer" problem; Social engineering has generally failed in this country (we had American Revolution for a reason; If we were law abiding, we would be Canadians). Prohibition, War on Drugs, War on Obesity.... Only success I can think of is War on Tobacco and may be War on Drunk Driving. Can the Civil War be considered a failed Social Engineering project?

    You mean the War of Northern Aggression, right?

    • Replies: @Liberty Mike
    The type of people who support the War of Northern Aggression favor totalitarian approaches to handling the Wuhan virus.
  99. @Peterike
    Upside: this virus is making air travel VERY pleasant. Zero line at check in. Zero line at security — literally. I just walked up to the TSA dude. Numerous empty seats on the plane, giving me a whole row to stretch out. Extra snacks that coach slobs like me don’t usually get. Pleasant, unfrazzled flight attendants. What’s not to like?

    Really? I went Japan-Honolulu-JFK a week ago and everything was normal: full planes, long brown lines at JFK, etc

    • Replies: @HammerJack
    Really. Check out air traffic apps if you can. Activity is way down, and frankly I'm glad to see it.
  100. @Anon
    Steve, you misguided bigot. The New Yorker has the scoop from progressive academic public health academic Wendy Palmer.

    No country can simply quarantine its way out of the COVID-19 crisis, Wendy E. Parmet, the director of the Center for Health Policy and Law at Northeastern University, told me. "There are reasons to be skeptical of the efficacy of quarantine for respiratory diseases like coronavirus." Quarantines can be a useful tool when done well. They can lower infection rates "a bit" and buy time, she said. But they have been done historically in discriminatory and haphazard ways that provide "a seductive illusion of containment."
     
    The word Trump does not appear, but they seem to be chomping at the bit to say it. And "norms" are at stake.

    The quarantines in China were misguided and too much, too late, Parmet told me. They have been done in ways that could jeopardize lives, because healthy and ill people are stuck together in vast geographic regions. “In these massive-scale quarantines, you are pushing deeply into potential human-rights violations,” Sauer said. “We have to be careful about everything we condone, whether active or passive. This is the time when social norms can change, and personal liberties are at risk.” By their nature, quarantines encourage xenophobia, division, and the muscular exercise of state power. “There are also long-term political consequences,” she added. “The intangible consequences pushing toward authoritarian rule concerns me a lot.”
     
    Honestly, why the hell are public health professionals telling us about their political views? Stay in your lane!

    One increasingly common practice has been quarantining passengers returning from so-called hot zones, or countries with numerous coronavirus cases, including China, Italy, Iran, South Korea, and Japan. But, with more than a hundred countries now hit, the requirements needed to effectively quarantine the volume of passengers from so many places could overwhelm systems.
     
    I don't see how "systems would be overwhelmed" if the borders were simply closed? You could send most of the air traffic control staff home for a well needed vacation.

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/how-much-of-the-world-will-be-quarantined-by-the-coronavirus

    I don’t agree with you on this one. She has some valid points, and it’s nice to see a public health official actually be concerned with the government coercive powers –they ‘re usually chomping at the bit to use them.

    Of course, the xenophobia part is bullshit, and the borders should be closed. But it’s true that quarantines can often give an illusion of safery. For example, I am quarantined right now because I came from Japan, but the city and region I came from are comparable to Manhattan and the greater New York City area. There were no cases of Coronavirus in my area when I left, just a few in my region. Quaratining me is like quarantining everyone from Manhattan because of the cases in New Rochelle. Maybe that’s reasonable, but it’snot being done. My quarantine is pointless when you’re not quarantining NYC residents as well.

    The bit about intangible consequences is accurate too. You csn see what happened with TSA following 911. We now have a new normal where everyone accepts getting abused by the government. At JFK, I recently got some dumb black dude at security who gave me shit about my socks (Japanese tabi), but I can’t tell him he’s a fucking idiot because of “national security”. There are real consequences to accepting protection.

  101. @Polynikes
    Like in S. Korea? Or Tawain?

    Maybe you don’t understand the death rate or statistics in general in relation to all the other dangers out there.



    We’ll talk in a month.

    Like in S. Korea? Or Tawain?

    South Korea, which totally separately from emergency measures in Daegu, has closed schools until 22 March, paid businesses to let their employees stay home, organised emergency childcare services for essential workers, taken control of mask distribution and ensured everyone wears one in public, organised military hospitals to treat infected patients. They have had a mild epidemic with low mortality.

    Taiwan, which had its first case on 21 January and by 2 February closed all schools until the 25th. Taiwan, which forbade the export of medical supplies like thermometers, mobilized soldiers to assist manufacturing masks and rationed and organised their distribution. They have had a mild epidemic with low mortality.

    Nobody in the west is doing that. In the west, we have open schools (so symptomless kids can spread it) and no masks in public (so anyone on public transit can get it) and everybody outside Italy is still at work (so everyone in your office will be exposed, and then their families, and then their kids…).

  102. @obwandiyag
    Aggressive. Hmm. What that mean?

    Israel’s top health bureaucrat Moshe Bar Siman-Tov aka “Barsi” agrees with Steve’s observation that the important thing is not to overwhelm hospitals (ICU’s) by slowing the spread of the infection.

    Barsi appears to enjoy the support of the health minister and Prime Minister Netanyahu. Note the cute Thai-style hand gestures demonstrated by Barsi and Bibi in the picture accompanying the article (link below):

    “Barsi” led an aggressive effort to slow the virus’s penetration into Israel — not because he thought he could stop it, but because slowing its spread would prevent overtaxing Israel’s hospitals and health infrastructures. The thinking was sound, health experts said. Israel only has so many respirators and lung specialists, making the death toll from the virus a function not of the number of people who fall ill, but of the rate at which they do so.

    If the number of ill at any given time could be kept at levels that Israel’s health infrastructure could accommodate, far more would survive infection. Slowing the spread could mean the difference between a few hundred dead by the end of the crisis and many thousands or even more who succumb because hospitals could not treat them properly and ventilators were in short supply.

    It was an unusually effective response to a public health crisis, and some have already suggested that the fact that a government economist was in charge – an economist trained not only to discern trends, but to act quickly and decisively on them – made all the difference.

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/meet-barsi-the-ruthless-economist-directing-israels-drastic-virus-fight/

  103. @Chrisnonymous
    Really? I went Japan-Honolulu-JFK a week ago and everything was normal: full planes, long brown lines at JFK, etc

    Really. Check out air traffic apps if you can. Activity is way down, and frankly I’m glad to see it.

  104. There is a guy on Twitter (he’s an Iranian in the UK) who is posting on the virus in Iran, and it sounds pretty bad.

    [email protected]

  105. @eugyppius
    Just some points in general response to some comments above:
    1) Covid19 probably won't be directly, personally dangerous to most people.
    2) Mortality may be be an order of magnitude worse than flu, but low mortality as seen in south korea is contingent on public health interventions, the real numbers are not known, and bare mortality is not why covid19 is dangerous.
    3) Covid19 is dangerous because as the virus reaches older populations, about 10-15% of official infections require respiratory support and icu beds; maybe more than 50% require hospitalisation. Thus even relatively low infection numbers utterly swamp hospitals and resources.
    4) Once the system is overwhelmed, and before a crisis response can be implementd, mortality increases. Right now Italy, seems to be doing its best to provide real numbers, has case mortality at 5%.
    5) The transition from infections among younger healthy populations that look to the healthcare system like a bump in flu cases, to a catastrophe where all your hospitals are overwhelmed with lines out the door, swamped by thousands and thousands of patients suffering pneumonia and respiratory failure, happens in a few days. In Lombardy as of yesterday the official numbers were that over 75% of icu beds had been allocated to covid19 infections. Strict triage measures were first rumored and now acknowledged across media sources. This means only 25% of Lombardy's icu capacity is now available to patients suffering from all other problems.
    6) The vast majority of new infections go unreported for 2 to 3 weeks, because symptoms lag. Public health measures taken in response to the current dimensions of the pandemic are thus reacting to old news from weeks ago. Thus countries complacent with their "rough flu season" risk locking themselves into real problems weeks before they even know what is happening. By the time the consequences of their current measures are clear to them, the disease has moved on to a new invisible state that will in turn only be apparent in 2-3 weeks.

    We here in the USA have had two months to construct hospitals. More reasonably: extensions to existing hospitals in order to increase capacity. Fast tracking construction using or modifying existing plans.

    Guess how many beds we’ve added? Yep.

    Two months isn’t enough, some may say? Well, we don’t need them today: we need them a month from now. And three months is enough to have gotten some additions built. We haven’t even tried.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/how-deadly-coronavirus-toll/

    • Replies: @Lockean Proviso
    At this point, we need to have FEMA trailers ready to bring onsite at hospitals or at satellite locations to serve as rooms, make contingency plans for using National Guard armories with multiple COVID beds, and focus on manufacturing and obtaining oxygen generators, tanks, and supply lines, as well as ventilators. Protective masks and sanitizer need to be made and provided to all and not left for hoarders to grab up. Grants need to be made for US manufacturing to transition to making medical supplies, and under-30s trained and paid to become medics and EMTs.

    This is a war and we need to transition to a wartime economy. Those who fear socialism need to realize that a little now can forestall a lot later. If this turns out as badly as it is currently heading, the loss of older citizens and the outcome of a botched response due to unwillingness to make decisions that have short-term losses for private interests will discredit market economics in the eyes of a transformed, significantly younger electorate that rejects core American values as being associated with an avoidable disaster.

  106. I think the gov’t response will completely depend on economics. If they think doing nothing will be best for the economy they will do nothing. If they think a full blown response is what is best for the economy they will do whatever they think is necessary.

    • Replies: @Giraffehead
    That's true, but the reason we are in such a mess now, for example the excruciating stock market selloff and excruciating asset bubbles (housing affordability etc.), is not because of the virus. That's just like a pin popping a ridiculously overinflated balloon. Now that they've made such a mess, yes the government has to be heavily involved in fixing it. But that's not going to the root of the problem which is, basically, running of the economy has been subcontracted out to a cartel of central bank controlled banks. And any serious attempt to make long-term changes that really stick, requires getting rid of this vicious cartel and the wrongheaded economic theories that underpin it.
  107. @streamfortyseven
    1. Chloroquine, an anti-malarial drug, has been found to be effective – “Notably, two compounds remdesivir (EC50 = 0.77 μM; CC50 > 100 μM; SI > 129.87) and chloroquine (EC50 = 1.13 μM; CC50 > 100 μM, SI > 88.50) potently blocked virus infection at low-micromolar concentration and showed high SI (Fig. 1a, b).” 
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0

    2. BEIJING, Feb. 17 (Xinhua) -- Chinese experts, based on the result of clinical trials, have confirmed that Chloroquine Phosphate, an antimalarial drug, has a certain curative effect on the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), a Chinese official said here Monday. The experts have "unanimously" suggested the drug be included in the next version of the treatment guidelines and applied in wider clinical trials as soon as possible, Sun Yanrong, deputy head of the China National Center for Biotechnology Development under the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST), said at a press conference. Chloroquine Phosphate, which has been used for more than 70 years, was selected from tens of thousands of existing drugs after multiple rounds of screening, Sun said. According to her, the drug has been under clinical trials in over 10 hospitals in Beijing, as well as in south China's Guangdong Province and central China's Hunan Province, and has shown fairly good efficacy. In the trials, the groups of patients who had taken the drug have shown better indicators than their parallel groups, in abatement of fever, improvement of CT images of lungs, the percentage of patients who became negative in viral nucleic acid tests and the time they need to do so, she said. Patients taking the drug also take a shorter time to recover, she added. Sun gave an example of a 54-year-old patient in Beijing, who was admitted to hospital four days after showing symptoms. After taking the drug for a week, he saw all indicators improve and the nucleic acid turn negative.” http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-02/17/c_138792545.htm

    3. “Chloroquine was discovered in 1934 by Hans Andersag.[3][4] It is on the World Health Organization’s List of Essential Medicines, the safest and most effective medicines needed in a health system.[5] It is available as a generic medication.[1] The wholesale cost in the developing world is about US$0.04.[6] In the United States, it costs about US$5.30 per dose.[1]” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chloroquine

    You'll never hear about this in US media. The Chinese are putting a big effort into finding cures and are doing so - and putting out papers... but mainstream media just haven't figured it out, besides hysteria sells more stuff.

    Hey

    CHLOROQUINE is used to treat or prevent malaria infections. It is also used to treat amebiasis. The lowest GoodRx price for the most common version of generic Aralen is around $74.38, 84% off the average retail price of $494.50.

    Someone is getting paid. So we will here about it.

  108. @Anonymous
    It really wouldn't he that hard to ask the country to self-quarantine. Give everyone in the USA $4,000 to stay home for 2 to 3 weeks. Both Bush and Obama handed out cash to stimulate the economy, and if you count tax cuts this would be nothing new. It's about 1.5 trillion dollars if you count every man woman and child. At this point who balks at 1.5 trillion? The dollar is inflated. If Trump tries to cheapskate his way out of this, it will cost much more in actual dollars in the long run. Ever hired an unlicensed contractor and regretted it? It will be kind of like that but with a million dead bodies to add to the tab.

    Sailer is right, we can win this. But the government must act now. Call your congressman. Call your senator. Call your governor. Call the White House comment line. I am calling everyday. I am always polite, and always ask for action to be taken sooner rather than later.

    Until the quarantine is in effect, take social distancing seriously. Do not eat out. Do not shake hands. Do not go to movies. Buy groceries only, at the least crowded store you know of. Sanitize your hands with alcohol as you exit the store. Keep separate "going out" clothes and "staying in" clothes. Wash going out clothes immediately upon return home., then wash your hands. Spray delivery boxes with lysol and let them sit a while before opening them. Take shoes off outside. Ladies, treat your purse like the dirty shoe it is; do not set it on your kitchen table or bed. Sanitize it often. Sanitize your hands any time you touch cash or a door pull.

    Utter alarmist, irrational rubbish.

    Those who promulgate totalitarian prescriptions as the magic elixir should be given a dose of their own medicine: quarantine them at a gulag full of infected Wuhan virus patients.

  109. @Chrisnonymous
    You mean the War of Northern Aggression, right?

    The type of people who support the War of Northern Aggression favor totalitarian approaches to handling the Wuhan virus.

    • Replies: @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    The type of people who support the War of Northern Aggression favor totalitarian approaches to handling the Wuhan virus.
     
    The type of people who call it the War of Northern Aggression are the type of people who should be forced to live in unsegregated work camps with no air conditioning in Mississippi.
  110. The first chart you reference that flattens the curve sets out an important conceptual point about rate of spread versus system capacity. It does not do anything more than that. The devil is in the details.

    Your notion of adding to the pressure so that the curve doesn’t just flatten but starts a downward curve to oblivion is another important conceptual point, but it is also just conceptual. It adds a tool to the cost-benefit toolkit but then you still have to do the math. I don’t think your conclusion–let’s do it!–is sustainable based on the thin reed of the concept alone.

    I know zero about health data so anything I say is pulled from a quick, or quack, Google survey and I don’t make much of what I say either. But here are some other things to think about.

    Italy has 10K cases total. A significant number of these will be in Lombardy, but still a fraction. A smaller number will be serious. I have read about 10% but what do I know? But if there are in all of Italy 1K serious cases with only some of them in Lombardy how might we explain the anecdotal things we hear about the system breaking down?

    It does seem odd that Italy’s health care system will break down on account of 1K new patients. But maybe it is. According to other material I have found online, the reliability of which I cannot vouch for, there are maybe 1200 intensive care beds in Lombardy and over 300K hospital beds. Perhaps the system is stressed on account of the marginal impact of the Lombardy percentage of serious cases running up against a small number of ICU beds in the region, some of which will be in use for other cases.

    But even so the capacity of the system in terms of total hospital beds seems quite large relative to the number of cases.

    And then consider the ratio of ICU beds to hospital beds in a comparative frame. In Italy that ratio appears low–well under 1%. According to Wikipedia in the United States about 20% of hospital beds can be characterized as ICU. It is recognized that that number is robust. The article compares the US percent of 20% to 2% in the UK–Europe apparently has way fewer ICU beds, or beds that can be characterized that way?

    The US has over 900,000 hospital beds. The 20% figure suggests we have maybe 180,000 ICU beds. Granted those beds won’t be distributed perfectly relative to where the cases are but it is a lot of beds.

    This is hardly a peer review exercise, pulling a number here and a number there and drawing a conclusion. But it beats tossing out a curve and building a national plan on the basis of it.

    Maybe we will see a 10% rate of serious infection. Maybe millions will cone down with it and the ICUs will be overwhelmed. But so far I am not sure we are seeing that level of spread and seriousness.

    The WHO report, which I have read, takes mostly at face value that the extraordinary “non-pharmaceutical” efforts in China were responsible for the turnaround, and that the Chinese were successful in identifying cases, meaning the death rate and rate of serious infection were high. But as you point out you can’t trust the data and, more importantly, you might not be able to trust the explanations. I think the WHO accepted the high death rate/identified all known cases conclusion on thin evidence, even as presented in the report. And I am not completely convinced that China’s economy killing moves were responsible for the turnaround. Other places report changes without such crippling measures. It may be the heat for that rare disease.

    You often advocate caution and skepticism. That seems absent in your heroic call. Unless I am mangling the number in some fundamental way I think there ought to be a fair amount of running room between where we are now and a condition in which our health system is overwhelmed. Why not use that time to observe the disease? If our non-lockdown protocols result in a high R0 of a virus of high lethality then and only then put in place our own American version of lockdown.

    Yes, there is a risk that waiting one more minute will mean we waited a minute too long. But the costs of extraordinary measures, which you have not begun to quantify, will likely be very high. Given the still uncertain nature of the spread I think an aggressive “if-then” plan based on costs and benefits is a better idea than jumping into action now. Indeed, I suspect that what may be happening already, but that we don’t know much about it since cost-benefit thinking on public health does not go down all that well with the public.

    And I say this as a 70 year old. I don’t favor Boomerpox but neither do I want my country to twist itself into a pretzel on my theoretical behalf.

  111. Steve,
    It’s a nice idea, your article. I hope we can crush Coronavirus.

    A few points:
    (1) It’s not clear from your article, but do you think Bergstrom created that graph? They were showing that graph on Japanese TV weeks ago. I think it is probably an Epidemiology 101 thing. He made the “graphic”, but not the “graph”.

    (2) In order to crush the curve, we need really extreme measures. Have you thought this through? We’re talking stopping travel and shipping. Breaking food supply chains. (They are having problems with food supply chains in China.) And because of the panic that is going to cause among our undisciplined, low-IQ populations, probably crushing the curve means some martial law. Are you ready to call out the National Guards?
    Personally, I think some food rationing experience would be good for Americans. Not because of obesity but for the emotional, social, political experience. But most people aren’t going to see it that way.

    (3) Although I’m in favor of stronger quarantine and travel ban measures, it is true that quarantines can be counterproductive or provide a false sense of security, depending on how they are implemented. A discussion about this got started above, but you didn’t approve my response. Are you going to start the soft-censorship thing again where you approve people’s posts but wait and wait to do it?

  112. From a political point of view there’s a bit of irony possible here.

    The media is of course hyping the coronavirus threat for all its worth, hoping to bring down Trump. Trump is way too nonchalant about it.

    But nothing promotes social distancing, hand washing, and other measures like hysteria over dying. No doubt this is the most important way to push down R naught.

    But if we win outright the battle against coronavirus, who looks like the winner?

    Trump of course.

    So maybe more Trump Luck — and it would be some real luck here — is in our future.

    Curses! Foiled again!

    • Replies: @Thea
    I may just be a germaphobe, but I’ve never liked the custom of shaking strangers’ hands. Some other polite non-touching greeting may take its place.


    I’m a bit pessimistic about how Trump will handle this. But I’ve been wrong before.

  113. @Reg Cæsar

    Our goal should be not just to lose more slowly and gracefully, but to win.
     
    Stormin' Steve Sailer!

    If you’re going to dream, might as well dream big.

    Personally I have no faith whatsoever in our government doing anything in time to effectively deal with this virus. We’ll see more effective solutions at the state level, and perhaps the Feds will send the states some money, though, as always with many strings attached. My guts says the horse is already out of the barn. I’m not saying do nothing, but I’m saying it’s too late to be early.

    At the Federal level it will be about the optics, with PR stunts substituted for the hard choices of genuine leadership. The profit margins of the elites, posing as the health of major corporations, will be the first priority, and will take precedence over the lives of aged plebs at large. I do agree that a lot of plebs are concerned about their 401K’s, but most care more about their parents.

    I see a lot of criticism ahead for Trump, regardless of what he does, but that’s the same boat he was already sailing in; the stakes are just a little higher now.

    The great sh!tshow that America has become will now get even sh!ttier.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    We’ll see more effective solutions at the state level...
     
    First off, states aren't "levels", but sovereign entities.

    That out of the way, remember when Gov. Pataki was criticized in 2001 for letting Mayor Giuliani do all the up-front work after the Port Authority lost a couple of its structures? Cooler heads pointed out that that was exactly what a good governor would do, letting the locals lead. Indeed, perhaps Giuliani should have stepped aside for the Manhattan Borough President.

    Similarly, GWB after Katrina. Where was the governor? The mayors? Why does the president have to do everything?
  114. Other things I would like to know more about.

    1. My understanding of treatment in the ICU is limited not being much of a hospital and health geek, but in the absence of a cure treatment seems mainly to consist of oxygen and monitoring. Is the number of ICU beds a hard limit? Given the nature of this particular intensive care intervention is it fair to think of the remaining non-ICU beds as part of the solution?

    2. Also, given that distance is seen as key, what are the prospects of lower cost non-hospital treatments? It does not seem as though the whole panoply of hospital resources is needed here. Why not a crash effort to add oxygen machines, and put them to use in homes and other non-hospital settings? Perhaps not ideal but should not everything be fed into the cost-benefit maw? Might not off-site oxygen be almost as effective but way cheaper than adding ICU capacity or crippling the economy? It’s kind of like what the late Clay Christensen said about disruption: you don’t have to have the best but only something nearly as good but way cheaper.

  115. @J.Ross
    I cannot imagine anyone unironically for Biden the man: it must be a case of party loyalty (or Trump derangement syndrome). If Trump does not win by a landslide then we deserve to end as a country. If Elizabeth Warren had had the irrational woman slapped out of her before appearances and demonstrated better apparent intellect than Trump (which for her is a reasonable request) she would make a reasonsble candidate. Biden's not a reasonable candidate, he's not even a candidate. The man has absolutely nothing to commend him. He's the one Democrat who made Trump sound like Noel Coward. Furthermore, if we try to list his qualities, we see everything the woke have targeted as unacceptable.

    No one opposed to Trump will change their vote based on who’s on the Dem ticket, and vice versa. This election will be a numbers game, not a popularity contest.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    In which case we lose because the Republicans refuse to fight.
  116. Will lockdown result in a subsequent baby boom?

    For northern Italy this could be especially good. But here, it will skew the demographics yet further.

  117. @candid_observer
    From a political point of view there's a bit of irony possible here.

    The media is of course hyping the coronavirus threat for all its worth, hoping to bring down Trump. Trump is way too nonchalant about it.

    But nothing promotes social distancing, hand washing, and other measures like hysteria over dying. No doubt this is the most important way to push down R naught.

    But if we win outright the battle against coronavirus, who looks like the winner?

    Trump of course.

    So maybe more Trump Luck -- and it would be some real luck here -- is in our future.

    Curses! Foiled again!

    I may just be a germaphobe, but I’ve never liked the custom of shaking strangers’ hands. Some other polite non-touching greeting may take its place.

    I’m a bit pessimistic about how Trump will handle this. But I’ve been wrong before.

  118. @StAugustine
    And in France,

    https://www.france24.com/en/20200310-french-mayor-defends-smurf-rally-after-outcry-over-virus

    “We must not stop living… it was the chance to say that we are alive,” mayor Patrick Leclerc of Landerneau in western France told AFP.

    If we don’t, the seroterrorists win!

  119. Steve — Just to be clear, was the idea of “crushing the curve” yours, or Cochran’s, or was it something you came up with collaboratively in the course of a conversation?

  120. One thing about pushing down R naught — not all segments of the US population are high in conscientiousness. R nought could go down within many segments, but not in others, keeping the average above 1.

    We are not all East Asians.

    And we have more homeless and drug users, etc.

    • Replies: @candid_observer
    Point is, R naught might be below 1 for some period of time as the spread among the more conscientious is curtailed, but then, at a certain level of absolute numbers in infected, might stabilize near 1 on average.

    In principle, this might happen in Korea and China also.

    , @epebble
    Some candid observation here from Northern edge of Oregon, shouting distance from Washington State line, the epicenter of the pandemic:

    Just went out in the morning for buying essentials after being home bound for a week. Traffic was light, most shoppers seemed to be consciously or unconsciously observing social distancing, generally trying to avoid being near each other. The stores were well stocked, the only exception being complete draw down 0n toilet paper at Costco. Totally strange since all food items were plentiful, paper towels, detergents, cleaning supplies all available. The grocery store next door did have TP, though it appeared half empty (just TP shelves, everything else full!)

    But the most distressing observation was, when I went to the restroom and was standing at the sink doing my 20 second hand wash, I observed 3 or 4 men, all middle aged (and appeared to be middle class/working class whites), barely wetting their hands, less than 5 seconds of wash, not even making an attempt to rub hands together. Considering we have an emergency declaration in the county and state, and dead bodies piling up just north of us, it was a dispiriting observation.
  121. @candid_observer
    One thing about pushing down R naught -- not all segments of the US population are high in conscientiousness. R nought could go down within many segments, but not in others, keeping the average above 1.

    We are not all East Asians.

    And we have more homeless and drug users, etc.

    Point is, R naught might be below 1 for some period of time as the spread among the more conscientious is curtailed, but then, at a certain level of absolute numbers in infected, might stabilize near 1 on average.

    In principle, this might happen in Korea and China also.

    • Replies: @Lockean Proviso
    Maybe while the conscientious quarantine themselves the less-conscientious will go through getting sick and dying (alas!) or recovering (yay.). The doctors will practice on them, the wave will go through, then the right side of the bell curve can emerge into the summer sun. The immune system functions better in warm weather, the sun helps make vitamin D, and beds would be available for those who need them. It could be manageable.

    Or: angry thugs, gangbangers, escaped inmates, meth dealers, punks, antifa and other suchlike will loot and pillage everything, especially the hospitals, threatening medical staff to save momma and attacking them if they don't. Order breaks down and chaos awaits the conscientious.

    Which will it be? Maybe when lots of powerful drugs begin to circulate, the problem will resolve itself.
  122. @Buzz Mohawk
    I'm all for Steve's idea, assuming it means we all just stay home for a few weeks. It would be interesting to see how that effects the country. I've always had a sneaking suspicion that most of what people do every day is unnecessary and would not be missed if stopped for a while.

    How about making it an annual holiday? The Virus Break. Since all the crud like this hits us during the cold, dry months, let's just all take a holiday at home every year at this time and shut the country down. It could become a tradition. Late Winter Sabbath.

    It could become a tradition. Late Winter Sabbath.

    Yes, it’s called Lent.

    Heathens and heretics …. tisk tisk.

    • LOL: Buzz Mohawk
  123. Biology instruction is so much more advanced in China than in the West:

  124. Would you recommend keeping kids home if the schools aren’t closing and there are confirmed cases in your city? It seems like closing the schools would confer community benefit but I’m not sure if there is much to be gained in the individual case. We are skipping contact with grandparents and elderly regardless the next few months.

  125. Avoiding mass infection through heroic shutdowns means we won’t have herd immunity. That means when the shutdown ends we’ll be vulnerable again

  126. @Anon
    The WSJ has a really good article today on how China accomplished this, by using telephone companies to track down people's movements at first, then when it grew to a point where they couldn't do it anymore, they mobilized community volunteers to man each apartment building to enforce the quarantine. People who were found wondering the streets without a mask or defying quarantine were fined US$1,400 and had to attend mandatory classes in stadiums where students were seated far apart, and were taught all about the virus and the government's effort to contain it.

    The effort was so successful "experts" in Western countries who originally pooh-pooh it are now taking a second look and saying it may be worth emulating in some fashion, esp. in Italy.

    In the comments section for that article, readers (presumably mostly Americans) roundly chastised the WSJ for "promoting" a "police state", "communist regime", one reader said she'd rather die than to live in a country like China, yada yada, a bunch of narcissistic arrogant clueless selfish elves. So you see, it's not going to happen. We'll just follow Italy's route, esp. in WA which is led by a bunch hapless clueless libtards like Jay Inslee. Even the former head of FDA today came out blasting at WA for taking a too relaxed approach and saying we should be more like Cuomo.

    Closing schools early is key, but the libtards running this state are prioritizing "equity" over public safety. I think the Dems running this state are selling out the seniors, who they think tend to be conservative and vote (R), while the Joses and Duanes who don't have a PC to go online or who rely on public lunch or their parents rely on school as daycare are more likely to be present and future (D) voters. The effing Dems know their priorities.

    “one reader said she’d rather die than to live in a country like China, yada yada, a bunch of narcissistic arrogant clueless selfish elves. So you see, it’s not going to happen.”

    Nonsense. Look at how all the gunless, leftist Bostonians obeyed the suggestion that they not go outside their homes when the police were searching for the Boston Marathon bombers. Obedience!

  127. @PiltdownMan
    It crosses my mind that the opening words of Enoch Powell's 1968 "rivers of blood" speech are apropos to the current situation.


    The supreme function of statesmanship is to provide against preventable evils. In seeking to do so, it encounters obstacles which are deeply rooted in human nature. One is that by the very order of things such evils are not demonstrable until they have occurred: at each stage in their onset there is room for doubt and for dispute whether they be real or imaginary.

     

    Agree Piltdown.

    The opening of Enoch Powell’s “Rivers of Blood” speech is simply one of the best–i’d say the best–of any political speech. The absolute clarity of truth is stunning.

    Reading it unfortunately highlights what a bunch of pathetic, juvenile, scum sucking nitwits we have as our “leaders” today.

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna
    I've read it before and I'm reading it again, and I'm amazed at how prescient it was.
  128. @Polynikes
    I have to say, this might be a generational thing, but I don’t know any rational person under 50 worried about this. On the other hand, my coworkers 48 yr old, and otherwise healthy, husband dropped dead from the regular flu a couple weeks ago. Left a wife and two HS aged kids. Maybe they don’t count because his virus wasn’t special or something.


    There’s-a couple confirmed cases in my country but what am I or my wife and daughter supposed to do? Now my sixty-something father that still traveling for work? Maybe a completely different story...

    I don’t know any rational person under 50 worried about this.

    It’s true that rationally you need not worry (a lot) for your life – 99.5%+ of those under 50 who contract covid will survive. However, this doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t worry. First of all, most people under 50 have family, friends and co-workers who are over 50 and are at considerably greater risk. 2nd, there are risks to the economy. Maybe you will survive, but will your job survive?

    what am I or my wife and daughter supposed to do?

    Follow the published recommendations. Avoid large gatherings and air travel, wash your hands, don’t touch your face, etc. Have enough food on hand to spend a couple of weeks at home without having to go out. If everyone in America took a two week staycation starting tomorrow, that would be the end of the epidemic and we could all go back to our lives.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    An even higher percentage of under fifties than just 99.5% will survive, more like 99.99%. 99.5% is pretty much the survival rate for everyone.
  129. If the medical system does become overloaded and breaks down, then humidification is all that many people will have.

  130. What if everyone just wore a facemask in public? You only have to get the R0 number below 1, and a facemask seems like that could do it.

    China got their outbreak under control and everyone wears a facemask, starting with the president.

    Almost nobody wears a facemask in public in America.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    "Almost nobody wears a facemask in public in America."

    We should bring back this fashion statement!

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/gucci-in-racism-row-fashion-giant-deeply-sorry-for-black-balaclava-jumper-that-resembles-blackface-a4059951.html
  131. The Spanish flu only afflicted those in the prime of life. Would that this were so for the present plague. My grandmother was a teenager, in between the typically afflicted and the not. So her straight hair fell out and then grew back curly.

  132. @Anonymous
    It means shut down America until May 1st.

    With truncheons?

  133. Don’t aim at getting close to 1.0: aim at getting below. Basically, the region of parameter space that would correspond to “flattening the curve” is tiny, and 90% of the way to a clear win.

    He’s correct. The virus is so contagious that you would need severe measures to reduce R0 from 3.86 to 2, and only a little more severe to reduce R0 below 1.

    The idea of “flattening the curve” is wrong in another respect: in most countries the capacity of the healthcare system, represented by the horizontal line, is much lower than indicated (does the USA, which spends so much on health, have higher capacity than most countries?)

    Yet this questionable idea has become the basis for public policy in many countries.

    It is notable that the lockdown in Wuhan did not “flatten the curve” – it immediately reduced R0 well below 1, and led to a decrease in the daily number of new cases, which after 5 weeks is now very low. Note that people will remain infected, and may die, for up to 20 days after transmission of the virus has ceased.

    But there is a downside to this severe lockdown: the population does not acquire immunity, and is vulnerable to another outbreak if the virus returns, e.g. via a traveller from abroad. The Wuhan strategy depends on the ability to contain low levels of infection, as the Chinese have done outside Hubei province. Are we capable of this? The evidence from the early stages of the epidemic suggests not.

    • Thanks: Coemgen
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Any delaying is useful to buy time for either vaccination or more successful treatment. The longer this goes on the more we will learn about it.
    , @Sean
    China is a totalitarian state and

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/03/09/a-local-guide-to-the-coronavirus Lipkin said. “On December 31st, researchers there identified it as a coronavirus but said, ‘It’s not highly transmissible.’
     
    You cannot believe anything the Chinese tell you, or rather you can by taking it on trust because there is no way to confirm it. South Korea has dealt with Coronavirus best, but without lockdown on the epidemic cities and areas. However the South Koreans so far infected are much younger that their population, which is willing to self test and self isolate, whereas Italians packed their bags and took an impromptu vacation, which is the right thing to do when putting the wellbeing of themself and their family first.

    The death rates the WHO put out and are being used for projections are not age adjusted. Donald Trump's hunch that it is nowhere near 1% is likely correct. It would be better to say that it is a flu type mortality because in the West the scare tactic is likely to cause the virus to spread and be worse that it otherwise would have been, and inflict serious economic damage as everything gets shut down. Of course if the virus really does have an age adjusted death rate of anything like 1% then not being draconian with measures against it will be a terrible mistake.

  134. @Ayatollah Smith
    I've been following the coronavirus articles and comments on this site and, of about 7 or 8 articles and a few thousand comments, I could count on the fingers of one hand the statements made about what was done in China or how things are (or were) in China that were factually true.

    Almost every single statement about China's actions toward virus control, were just rubbish, including the comments on this article.

    Why do you people post all this bullshit? Stupid undocumented claims without a shred of supporting evidence. What do you have in your heads that makes you do this?

    Anon[427] • Disclaimer says:

    'People who were found wondering the streets without a mask or defying quarantine were fined US$1,400 and had to attend mandatory classes in stadiums . . ."

    That's pure bullshit. Did you just make that up or did the NYT or WSJ do it for you?

    And Americans can forget about "winning" anything. The US system is so disorganised and corrupt the CDC can't even produce tests that produce reliable results - so they do nothing. China can test one million people per day while the US has tested a few thousand in 2.5 months, while deaths are being attributed to influenza. It's so bad the CDC is "strongly" urging hospitals to NOT test for the coronavirus but for the flu instead.

    If you would like to evaluate your chances of "winning", read this:

    https://www.globalresearch.ca/covid-19-marketing-usa-misinformation-incompetence-buffoonery/5705948

    China can test one million people per day while the US has tested a few thousand in 2.5 months

    Are the million-a-day Chinese tests simply measurements of temperature?

  135. The nexus between Coronavirus and low humidity is so overwhelming to this observer. It is nice that our blog host got the message but tragic that the public isn’t getting that message.

    Humidifying is just the sort of robust and fail-safe, easy solution that the public needs. Anyone sick in bed can do it — you need no help from anyone!

    By contrast, even getting a Coronavirus test is apparently a major project. Then think of the huge resources and manpower to treat a Coronavirus patient, who needs intensive care and is also highly infectious. There is just no way any of this can scale.

    Humidification, which scales perfectly and is readily available instantly (just a pot of boiling water will do in a pinch), is a very good answer for viral respiratory infection. And for many people, it will be the only answer. Just like a respirator, humidification will improve things until the patient’s immune system kicks in.

    Currently the medical answer is to put the patient on a ventilator to buy time for them to recover. Humidification does the same thing.

    For yet more evidence, as if more was needed: Look at Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar and Vietnam. All countries bordering China that are far more intertwined with China than any European country, and yet all have fared far better than any major European nation, with few cases and virtually no deaths. What is the difference? All of these nations are literally inside the tropics.

    The scientific studies exists. Our own observations are telling us this virus is just not finding its legs in the tropics.

    I know the big variable has to be indoor humidity rather than temperature, because everyone spends all their time inside at 72, throughout most of the world. Indoor humidity is really the only variable available.

    And yet the scientific establishment will not tell the public anything they don’t already know. “Wash your hands!”

    What is the point of virology departments at universities all over America if they can’t tell us the one useful thing we can do, now that we have our pandemic?

    • Thanks: Charles Erwin Wilson
    • Replies: @Corn
    I’m hardly a doctor but I think there has to be a connection with lower infection and heat and/or humidity.

    You mentioned Thailand and Indochina. I’d also mention the Philippines. There were a handful of cases there when the virus first escaped China but I’ve heard no more.

    Any news from Hawaii? I remember there being at least two or three cases reported there weeks ago but since then I’ve heard next to nothing. If there is a CV epidemic spreading across Oahu or Hawai’i or any of the other islands then Apocalypse and Prepper Twitter are strangely silent.
  136. @Kratoklastes
    Define "cases".

    The chart matters iff 'cases' == 'people diagnosed with the virus who require a hospital emergency bed'.

    At present, the proportion of people detected as infected who are graded 'seriously ill' is small enough to fail to overwhelm the healthcare resources of a (rapidly-)developing country of a billion people - where the authorities left the thing to run unchecked for almost 6 weeks.

    At recent conferences in the decadent West - with thousands of attendees and a "Wuhan Moishe" glad-handing anyone within arm's length - the total infected is approximately fuck-all. The number of dead at AIPAC and CPAC is lamentably low (still zero).

    .

    The graphic reproduced in your TakiMag piece seems to include a deliberate attempt to conflate total infections with total cases; it wants people to look at the modelled line as if it's the number of people who require hospitalisation, rather than the total number of people infected (symptomatic or not; diagnosed or not; serious or not).

    In the 'early' stage of exponential growth, 'cases' = f(exp(t×K)) where K is the time-rate of spread of infection and f() is some (unknown) function.

    K is very different from R[0].

    There seems to be some part of the narrative that encourages everyone to think that K is the same as R[0], but it absolutely is not.

    R[0] is estimated from K (which is itself an estimate, because nobody knows how many undiagnosed or asymptomatic infected people there are, or where they are).

    To get from K to R[0] requires assumptions about
    • the exposure time required to cause infection;
    • the period of latent infectiousness;
    • the number of contacts made per unit time by a latently-infected individual.

    Bear in mind all of these inputs are estimates: estimates are uncertain quantities, and when you put uncertain things together, you almost never get a smaller system-wide uncertainty (unless two of the parameters covary negatively).

    Find yourself a SEIR model template, and set it up in Excel and play around with the parameters (a, β, γ and μ) and see how wildly R[0] can vary for a given K (derived from a given N), while still satisfying the accounting condition that S + E + I + R = N (which in itself requires a couple of silly assumptions).

    A very large amount of the numbers being bandied about are so fluffy that they make government budget forecasts look solid.

    I'm certain that the epidemiology community are doing their level best, and it's the type of field where it's safe to assume practitioners are genuinely trying to use poor data to make best-efforts estimates.

    However, at the moment the data are just too useless, because there is no accounting that can determine the number of hitherto-undetected, mildly- [or a]symptomatic infected/recovered. These will be the biggest cohort numerically, given the fairly modest number of people tested and the relatively low number of adults who pass to 'serious' stages.

    .

    At the end of the day, governments around the world will do a bunch of flailing around - and when it turns out that fuck-all people die, they will claim that they and their flailings were the main reason nd that they saved us.

    It's the same schtick that churches have used to save us from other imaginary existential threats (the church schtick performs very poorly when there is an actual existential threat, but those are far rarer).

    Meanwhile, the money spent will go to cronies first and foremost.

    In Australia the former ad-huckster who is currently PM, announced that the first thing to happen next will be a "public awareness campaign" costing $30 million.

    Doubtless his ad-agency mates will be pleased (they will pocket $10m off the top), and it will give the government a nice carrot to dangle in front of major media:

    "See this $20m ad spend? be nice and you might get some."
     

    You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that it’s an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before.

    -Rahm Emanuel

  137. @415 reasons
    Yes, it needs to be coupled with draconian travel restrictions. The good news is that in these areas of the world the virus will burn itself out relatively quickly. There are estimates that in Iran > 1 million people are infected. That’s not that many doubling times from having herd immunity. It’s improbable that we can do this but then again thousands of deaths have a way of focusing the attention. Two weeks ago if you had said all of Italy would be in lockdown it would have seemed improbable too.

    There are estimates that in Iran > 1 million people are infected. That’s not that many doubling times from having herd immunity

    That is a good point about achieving herd immunity in the hard-hit areas. From what I’ve been hearing, though, they haven’t figured out the extent of people’s post-infection immunity — i.e., how strong it is, and how long it lasts.

    • Replies: @415 reasons
    I don’t know how anyone would empirically test this, but with SARS it apparently lasted 3 years. That’s probably the best guess for this current virus. For most coronaviruses immunity seems to last at least a year.
  138. @danand
    Chancellor Merkel to the rescue once again, she stated that 60-70% of Germans may get the coronavirus:

    “German chancellor, Angela Merkel, reportedly dropped the bombshell figure in a parliamentary session yesterday.

    I'm sure she's referring to the worst-case scenario, but if so, then they should already be starting to step up containment efforts surely.

    Italy is a good example of the potential struggle that a country may face, especially in terms of the medical situation, and this is mostly in northern Italy so far.

    This is being reported by Bild here. Adding that Merkel has said more events and large gatherings could be cancelled depending on the severity of the outbreak.

    How does one even cope with 60-70% of the population contracting the virus when already 0.01% seems to be challenging enough?”
     

    How does one even cope with 60-70% of the population contracting the virus when already 0.01% seems to be challenging enough?”

    Oooh! I know! I know! Have a mass influx of refugees cross the Turkish border.

  139. @Polynikes
    I have to say, this might be a generational thing, but I don’t know any rational person under 50 worried about this. On the other hand, my coworkers 48 yr old, and otherwise healthy, husband dropped dead from the regular flu a couple weeks ago. Left a wife and two HS aged kids. Maybe they don’t count because his virus wasn’t special or something.


    There’s-a couple confirmed cases in my country but what am I or my wife and daughter supposed to do? Now my sixty-something father that still traveling for work? Maybe a completely different story...

    I have to say, this might be a generational thing, but I don’t know any rational person under 50 worried about this.

    On my lunch break I overheard a couple of bike delivery guys talking about avoiding illness and risks of contracting flu or corona (comparing hand sanitizer no less). These guys are young and fit, they literally make their living off of their physical fitness. They would also be the people most likely to fight off an infection, even a severe one. Yet even these impervious young men know that health isn’t taken for granted.

  140. @Buzz Mohawk
    When the United States were young, The People shared a concept they called "enlightened self-interest." It was completely compatible with Liberty. It meant that an individual Citizen was able to determine when doing something for his community, or state or nation, would be in his own interest.

    Measures of the type you are suggesting today would fit into that category, if Americans could still think in terms of their enlightened self-interest. They would be protecting themselves individually, as well as the society that produces all they enjoy.

    Your example of HIV is not relevant. In America, that was an epidemic primarily among, and mostly caused by, fools buggering each other.

    And it was the nation’s first politically protected virus!

    • Agree: Dissident
  141. @DanHessinMD
    The nexus between Coronavirus and low humidity is so overwhelming to this observer. It is nice that our blog host got the message but tragic that the public isn't getting that message.

    Humidifying is just the sort of robust and fail-safe, easy solution that the public needs. Anyone sick in bed can do it -- you need no help from anyone!

    By contrast, even getting a Coronavirus test is apparently a major project. Then think of the huge resources and manpower to treat a Coronavirus patient, who needs intensive care and is also highly infectious. There is just no way any of this can scale.

    Humidification, which scales perfectly and is readily available instantly (just a pot of boiling water will do in a pinch), is a very good answer for viral respiratory infection. And for many people, it will be the only answer. Just like a respirator, humidification will improve things until the patient's immune system kicks in.

    Currently the medical answer is to put the patient on a ventilator to buy time for them to recover. Humidification does the same thing.

    For yet more evidence, as if more was needed: Look at Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar and Vietnam. All countries bordering China that are far more intertwined with China than any European country, and yet all have fared far better than any major European nation, with few cases and virtually no deaths. What is the difference? All of these nations are literally inside the tropics.

    The scientific studies exists. Our own observations are telling us this virus is just not finding its legs in the tropics.

    I know the big variable has to be indoor humidity rather than temperature, because everyone spends all their time inside at 72, throughout most of the world. Indoor humidity is really the only variable available.

    And yet the scientific establishment will not tell the public anything they don't already know. "Wash your hands!"

    What is the point of virology departments at universities all over America if they can't tell us the one useful thing we can do, now that we have our pandemic?

    I’m hardly a doctor but I think there has to be a connection with lower infection and heat and/or humidity.

    You mentioned Thailand and Indochina. I’d also mention the Philippines. There were a handful of cases there when the virus first escaped China but I’ve heard no more.

    Any news from Hawaii? I remember there being at least two or three cases reported there weeks ago but since then I’ve heard next to nothing. If there is a CV epidemic spreading across Oahu or Hawai’i or any of the other islands then Apocalypse and Prepper Twitter are strangely silent.

  142. @Anonymous
    I suppose that the 2 week school Christmas break puts a dent in flu transmission every year. Has anyone tried to quantify how much more the flu would spread without that break?

    I suppose that the 2 week school Christmas break puts a dent in flu transmission every year. Has anyone tried to quantify how much more the flu would spread without that break?

    Excellent research topic. Could do this with difference in differences — but might be hard to find the control group, since even non-Christian countries tend to follow academic calendars developed in Europe.

  143. anon[108] • Disclaimer says:
    @Sean

    As Cochran sums up by quoting Douglas MacArthur:

    There is no substitute for victory.
     

    Doug wanted to eradicate the problem by following it back to the source, and them sterilise the Chinese re-infection in Korea (by nuking them). However, he learnt from it and in private with JFK and Johnstone MacArthur warned against getting into another Asian land war through involvement in Vietnam.

    Chinese are a unique people. Koreans even more so; they are the least individualistic in the world. I just wonder if with a population that is worried about their social credit score and in a totalitarian state or Korean you could fail to get enough cooperation. It is not clear what Koreans are willing to do (spend couple of hundred dollars on testing and quarantine themselves in their home) would be acquiesced in by Western diverse populations.


    https://www.thedailybeast.com/italys-coronavirus-lockdown-shows-why-mass-quarantines-wont-work-in-the-west ROME—A couple of hours before Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte signed an unprecedented novel coronavirus containment decree around 2 a.m. Sunday, the draft document had already leaked.

    Whether it was intentionally given to the press—as most cynical Italians believe—or an honest mistake, it had a predictable outcome. Thousands of people threw whatever they could into suitcases and jumped in their cars or ran for the nearest train station to get the hell out of Dodge (or, rather Milan and Venice) before they were locked in
     

    It's by the Amanda Knox guilter witch Barbie Nadeau, not the most persuasive evidence of its value, but still. You know some people would say afterwards that the aggressive approach had made things much worse whether it had or not. But could it? It would be nice to have a model beforehand. Trump would need to know beforehand, because he gets very little credit for anything going right.

    Back in 2011 Dr. W. Ian Lipkin ( John Snow Professor of Epidemiology, and Director of the Center for Infection and Immunity, at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, dubbed a “master virus-hunter” by Zimmer in the New York Times) was being interviewed about the then-just-premiered movie Contagion, which he was an advisor to. Lipkin noted that: 'The Royal Astronomer, Martin Rees, predicts that a serious biological threat will emerge to claim at least one million lives by 2020. Only time will tell whether he’s right or wrong'.


    Just last week the New Yorker reported that Lipkin " was dressed for TV—he’d been making the rounds. “I never turn down Fox,” he said. “It’s an opportunity to preach in the wilderness.”. You see what Trump is up against.


    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/03/09/a-local-guide-to-the-coronavirus Lipkin said. “On December 31st, researchers there identified it as a coronavirus but said, ‘It’s not highly transmissible.’ So much for that assessment!” He went on, “It’s going to be difficult to know who knew what when.” [...] Lipkin was more concerned with the virus itself: how widely it has spread, why some people get it and others don’t, how to counteract it. “The trick with all this is, it’s an arms race,” he said. “The virus is evading you. You want to make sure you keep up with it.” He added that he was “cautiously optimistic” that citizens and governments will now be more careful, and that we can accelerate the development of drugs and a vaccine. Still, he said, “things are going to get shut down. And this virus is probably going to be with us for some time to come. It might become endemic, like measles.”
     

    It is not clear what Koreans are willing to do (spend couple of hundred dollars on testing and quarantine themselves in their home) would be acquiesced in by Western diverse populations.

    The testing there is free. You only have to pay $132 if you insist on a test despite the medical team determining that it’s unnecessary. They have set up drive-thru testing making it convenient and quick. There’s nothing particularly oppressive or demanding about what they’re doing there. If you’ve read history, Western populations have certainly gone through worse. This isn’t like Londoners stoically going through the Blitz or something.

  144. It is madness that the one thing people can do (humidify) is hardly discussed publicly. On the bright side, improvement should come naturally with humid spring and summer air.

    It seems clear that the R0 – value of this is well below 1 under humid conditions. It is probably also well below 1 if everyone is wearing a mask.

    What is the point of all these terrifying maps when the one plain fact (tropical places aren’t getting it) isn’t talked about.

    I probably just read 3 articles that say, “Hoping for relief when summer comes? Don’t bet on it!”

  145. Anonymous[286] • Disclaimer says:
    @James N. Kennett

    Don’t aim at getting close to 1.0: aim at getting below. Basically, the region of parameter space that would correspond to “flattening the curve” is tiny, and 90% of the way to a clear win.
     
    He's correct. The virus is so contagious that you would need severe measures to reduce R0 from 3.86 to 2, and only a little more severe to reduce R0 below 1.

    The idea of "flattening the curve" is wrong in another respect: in most countries the capacity of the healthcare system, represented by the horizontal line, is much lower than indicated (does the USA, which spends so much on health, have higher capacity than most countries?)

    Yet this questionable idea has become the basis for public policy in many countries.

    It is notable that the lockdown in Wuhan did not "flatten the curve" - it immediately reduced R0 well below 1, and led to a decrease in the daily number of new cases, which after 5 weeks is now very low. Note that people will remain infected, and may die, for up to 20 days after transmission of the virus has ceased.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e5/2020_coronavirus_patients_in_China.svg/800px-2020_coronavirus_patients_in_China.svg.png

    But there is a downside to this severe lockdown: the population does not acquire immunity, and is vulnerable to another outbreak if the virus returns, e.g. via a traveller from abroad. The Wuhan strategy depends on the ability to contain low levels of infection, as the Chinese have done outside Hubei province. Are we capable of this? The evidence from the early stages of the epidemic suggests not.

    Any delaying is useful to buy time for either vaccination or more successful treatment. The longer this goes on the more we will learn about it.

  146. @streamfortyseven
    1. Chloroquine, an anti-malarial drug, has been found to be effective – “Notably, two compounds remdesivir (EC50 = 0.77 μM; CC50 > 100 μM; SI > 129.87) and chloroquine (EC50 = 1.13 μM; CC50 > 100 μM, SI > 88.50) potently blocked virus infection at low-micromolar concentration and showed high SI (Fig. 1a, b).” 
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0

    2. BEIJING, Feb. 17 (Xinhua) -- Chinese experts, based on the result of clinical trials, have confirmed that Chloroquine Phosphate, an antimalarial drug, has a certain curative effect on the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), a Chinese official said here Monday. The experts have "unanimously" suggested the drug be included in the next version of the treatment guidelines and applied in wider clinical trials as soon as possible, Sun Yanrong, deputy head of the China National Center for Biotechnology Development under the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST), said at a press conference. Chloroquine Phosphate, which has been used for more than 70 years, was selected from tens of thousands of existing drugs after multiple rounds of screening, Sun said. According to her, the drug has been under clinical trials in over 10 hospitals in Beijing, as well as in south China's Guangdong Province and central China's Hunan Province, and has shown fairly good efficacy. In the trials, the groups of patients who had taken the drug have shown better indicators than their parallel groups, in abatement of fever, improvement of CT images of lungs, the percentage of patients who became negative in viral nucleic acid tests and the time they need to do so, she said. Patients taking the drug also take a shorter time to recover, she added. Sun gave an example of a 54-year-old patient in Beijing, who was admitted to hospital four days after showing symptoms. After taking the drug for a week, he saw all indicators improve and the nucleic acid turn negative.” http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-02/17/c_138792545.htm

    3. “Chloroquine was discovered in 1934 by Hans Andersag.[3][4] It is on the World Health Organization’s List of Essential Medicines, the safest and most effective medicines needed in a health system.[5] It is available as a generic medication.[1] The wholesale cost in the developing world is about US$0.04.[6] In the United States, it costs about US$5.30 per dose.[1]” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chloroquine

    You'll never hear about this in US media. The Chinese are putting a big effort into finding cures and are doing so - and putting out papers... but mainstream media just haven't figured it out, besides hysteria sells more stuff.

    Sounds too good to be true.

  147. @James N. Kennett

    Don’t aim at getting close to 1.0: aim at getting below. Basically, the region of parameter space that would correspond to “flattening the curve” is tiny, and 90% of the way to a clear win.
     
    He's correct. The virus is so contagious that you would need severe measures to reduce R0 from 3.86 to 2, and only a little more severe to reduce R0 below 1.

    The idea of "flattening the curve" is wrong in another respect: in most countries the capacity of the healthcare system, represented by the horizontal line, is much lower than indicated (does the USA, which spends so much on health, have higher capacity than most countries?)

    Yet this questionable idea has become the basis for public policy in many countries.

    It is notable that the lockdown in Wuhan did not "flatten the curve" - it immediately reduced R0 well below 1, and led to a decrease in the daily number of new cases, which after 5 weeks is now very low. Note that people will remain infected, and may die, for up to 20 days after transmission of the virus has ceased.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e5/2020_coronavirus_patients_in_China.svg/800px-2020_coronavirus_patients_in_China.svg.png

    But there is a downside to this severe lockdown: the population does not acquire immunity, and is vulnerable to another outbreak if the virus returns, e.g. via a traveller from abroad. The Wuhan strategy depends on the ability to contain low levels of infection, as the Chinese have done outside Hubei province. Are we capable of this? The evidence from the early stages of the epidemic suggests not.

    China is a totalitarian state and

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/03/09/a-local-guide-to-the-coronavirus Lipkin said. “On December 31st, researchers there identified it as a coronavirus but said, ‘It’s not highly transmissible.’

    You cannot believe anything the Chinese tell you, or rather you can by taking it on trust because there is no way to confirm it. South Korea has dealt with Coronavirus best, but without lockdown on the epidemic cities and areas. However the South Koreans so far infected are much younger that their population, which is willing to self test and self isolate, whereas Italians packed their bags and took an impromptu vacation, which is the right thing to do when putting the wellbeing of themself and their family first.

    The death rates the WHO put out and are being used for projections are not age adjusted. Donald Trump’s hunch that it is nowhere near 1% is likely correct. It would be better to say that it is a flu type mortality because in the West the scare tactic is likely to cause the virus to spread and be worse that it otherwise would have been, and inflict serious economic damage as everything gets shut down. Of course if the virus really does have an age adjusted death rate of anything like 1% then not being draconian with measures against it will be a terrible mistake.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    You've seen the graph. Regardless of what the mortality is and whether it is inevitable that everyone will eventually get it if they don't develop a vaccine, having it spread slowly is better because there is a short term (and not very high) ceiling on medical resources, especially in the US where the idea of build a new hospital in 10 days like the Chinese did is a pipe dream. Regardless of the urgency, in 10 days they would still be interviewing for the diversity coordinator and the actual time to build a new hospital here is closer to 10 YEARS than 10 days. Once you exceed the ceiling on medical resources you then have to triage the elderly and those with other risk factors and just let them die because you need to save the ventilators for people whose odds are better. Having the same number of cases spread out over a year is much better than having them all happen in a few weeks.
    , @James N. Kennett

    You cannot believe anything the Chinese tell you, or rather you can by taking it on trust because there is no way to confirm it.
     
    In recent weeks the Chinese have been cooperating with the WHO, who have a team in Wuhan.

    The death rates the WHO put out and are being used for projections are not age adjusted. Donald Trump’s hunch that it is nowhere near 1% is likely correct.
     
    The age adjusted mortality figures are known. The overall mortality figure is in the region of 2.5% of identified cases. Western countries have an ageing population, but perhaps not as bad as China's, so our overall mortality may be a little lower. The best thing Donald Trump can do is remain silent and let the CDC do the talking.

    Image from https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-compared-to-flu-mortality-rates-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

    https://i.insider.com/5e5fc740fee23d14eb3dd212?width=600&format=jpeg&auto=webp (click for graph of mortality by age)


    It would be better to say that it is a flu type mortality because in the West the scare tactic is likely to cause the virus to spread and be worse that it otherwise would have been, and inflict serious economic damage as everything gets shut down.

     

    You may be right that the knowledge we have is likely to lead to a worse outcome than would ensue from public ignorance. However, I doubt that deception would work. Anyone with sufficient interest can use Google to discover the facts.

    Of course if the virus really does have an age adjusted death rate of anything like 1% then not being draconian with measures against it will be a terrible mistake.

     

    If 25% of the US population becomes infected, and 2.5% of those die, that amounts to 2 million dead - a huge number, but only an additional 50% above the usual annual death rate of 4 million, and almost entirely consisting of people whose life expectancy was already short because of pre-existing medical conditions. How long should we shut down the economy to save this 2 million? 3 months? A year? Are there any better strategies, such as paying people to help the sick and elderly self-isolate, while the rest of us take our chances with business-as-usual?
  148. @Jack D

    I don’t know any rational person under 50 worried about this.
     
    It's true that rationally you need not worry (a lot) for your life - 99.5%+ of those under 50 who contract covid will survive. However, this doesn't mean that you shouldn't worry. First of all, most people under 50 have family, friends and co-workers who are over 50 and are at considerably greater risk. 2nd, there are risks to the economy. Maybe you will survive, but will your job survive?

    what am I or my wife and daughter supposed to do?
     
    Follow the published recommendations. Avoid large gatherings and air travel, wash your hands, don't touch your face, etc. Have enough food on hand to spend a couple of weeks at home without having to go out. If everyone in America took a two week staycation starting tomorrow, that would be the end of the epidemic and we could all go back to our lives.

    An even higher percentage of under fifties than just 99.5% will survive, more like 99.99%. 99.5% is pretty much the survival rate for everyone.

  149. @Jack D
    Vaccine is the long term solution. In the past, smallpox, polio, etc. were constant problems for many centuries until a vaccine was introduced.

    Yellow fever, typhus, scarlet fever, dysentery, TB, plague and others were also such problems until vaccines… oh wait!

  150. @RebelWriter
    If you're going to dream, might as well dream big.

    Personally I have no faith whatsoever in our government doing anything in time to effectively deal with this virus. We'll see more effective solutions at the state level, and perhaps the Feds will send the states some money, though, as always with many strings attached. My guts says the horse is already out of the barn. I'm not saying do nothing, but I'm saying it's too late to be early.

    At the Federal level it will be about the optics, with PR stunts substituted for the hard choices of genuine leadership. The profit margins of the elites, posing as the health of major corporations, will be the first priority, and will take precedence over the lives of aged plebs at large. I do agree that a lot of plebs are concerned about their 401K's, but most care more about their parents.

    I see a lot of criticism ahead for Trump, regardless of what he does, but that's the same boat he was already sailing in; the stakes are just a little higher now.

    The great sh!tshow that America has become will now get even sh!ttier.

    We’ll see more effective solutions at the state level…

    First off, states aren’t “levels”, but sovereign entities.

    That out of the way, remember when Gov. Pataki was criticized in 2001 for letting Mayor Giuliani do all the up-front work after the Port Authority lost a couple of its structures? Cooler heads pointed out that that was exactly what a good governor would do, letting the locals lead. Indeed, perhaps Giuliani should have stepped aside for the Manhattan Borough President.

    Similarly, GWB after Katrina. Where was the governor? The mayors? Why does the president have to do everything?

  151. @DanHessinMD
    What if everyone just wore a facemask in public? You only have to get the R0 number below 1, and a facemask seems like that could do it.

    China got their outbreak under control and everyone wears a facemask, starting with the president.

    Almost nobody wears a facemask in public in America.

    “Almost nobody wears a facemask in public in America.”

    We should bring back this fashion statement!

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/gucci-in-racism-row-fashion-giant-deeply-sorry-for-black-balaclava-jumper-that-resembles-blackface-a4059951.html

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason

    “Almost nobody wears a facemask in public in America.”
     
    The Lone Ranger must ride again.
  152. Here is an idea to stimulate the economy.

    Declare a national one-month moratorium and jubilee on all rental and mortgage payments. Landlords who do not collect rent will be excused bank loan payments for the month.

    It is the least the banks can do after the ragged-trousered American people bailed out out the top-hatted bankers in the dying days of the regime of the last ruler of the imperial Bush-Ladin dynasty.

    It is also quite Biblical, so would go down well with the religious right.

  153. @Corvinus
    "Almost nobody wears a facemask in public in America."

    We should bring back this fashion statement!

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/gucci-in-racism-row-fashion-giant-deeply-sorry-for-black-balaclava-jumper-that-resembles-blackface-a4059951.html

    “Almost nobody wears a facemask in public in America.”

    The Lone Ranger must ride again.

  154. @Sean
    China is a totalitarian state and

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/03/09/a-local-guide-to-the-coronavirus Lipkin said. “On December 31st, researchers there identified it as a coronavirus but said, ‘It’s not highly transmissible.’
     
    You cannot believe anything the Chinese tell you, or rather you can by taking it on trust because there is no way to confirm it. South Korea has dealt with Coronavirus best, but without lockdown on the epidemic cities and areas. However the South Koreans so far infected are much younger that their population, which is willing to self test and self isolate, whereas Italians packed their bags and took an impromptu vacation, which is the right thing to do when putting the wellbeing of themself and their family first.

    The death rates the WHO put out and are being used for projections are not age adjusted. Donald Trump's hunch that it is nowhere near 1% is likely correct. It would be better to say that it is a flu type mortality because in the West the scare tactic is likely to cause the virus to spread and be worse that it otherwise would have been, and inflict serious economic damage as everything gets shut down. Of course if the virus really does have an age adjusted death rate of anything like 1% then not being draconian with measures against it will be a terrible mistake.

    You’ve seen the graph. Regardless of what the mortality is and whether it is inevitable that everyone will eventually get it if they don’t develop a vaccine, having it spread slowly is better because there is a short term (and not very high) ceiling on medical resources, especially in the US where the idea of build a new hospital in 10 days like the Chinese did is a pipe dream. Regardless of the urgency, in 10 days they would still be interviewing for the diversity coordinator and the actual time to build a new hospital here is closer to 10 YEARS than 10 days. Once you exceed the ceiling on medical resources you then have to triage the elderly and those with other risk factors and just let them die because you need to save the ventilators for people whose odds are better. Having the same number of cases spread out over a year is much better than having them all happen in a few weeks.

    • Replies: @Sean
    That is a model and based on certain assumptions. The Chinese already lied about how infectious coronavirus was.

    Having the same number of cases spread out over a year is much better than having them all happen in a few weeks.
     
    It is like chemotherapy for cancer,whether the most aggressive type of treatment is the best option depends how aggressive invasive or virulent the disease is. There isn't a way to know whether that is the case, so pretending that the question of what to do is as simple as reading a graph is unfounded. There are also things like economic considerations.

    Lipkin is a world authority and he said “this virus is probably going to be with us for some time to come. It might become endemic, like measles.”
    , @Rob

    especially in the US where the idea of build a new hospital in 10 days like the Chinese did is a pipe dream. Regardless of the urgency, in 10 days they would still be interviewing for the diversity coordinator and the actual time to build a new hospital here is closer to 10 YEARS than 10 days.
     
    This is a time where smart conservatives would be emphasizing that regulation has costs. In this case, all the regulations around construction, especially the onerous ones around hospitals, are going to cost lives. Who knows how many will die that don’t have to. Intelligent conservatives would be pushing for policy changes, not tax cuts.
  155. @RichardTaylor

    This would require massive sacrifice ... But, at least there’s now a worthy goal for what all the pain would be for: victory.
     
    Somehow I doubt the sacrifice would be equally shared. It would be White people doing all the heavy lifting. Blacks and Latinos wouldn't contribute much. Asians would obey but basically look out for themselves (while cheating if possible).

    Somehow I doubt the sacrifice would be equally shared.

    That’s the problem/challenge underlying everything in the US. We KNOW the burden of sacrifices are not equally shared–just as the reward of benefits are not equally reaped.

    It’s the contradiction of all this social engineering the prog-left keeps shoving down our throats–the shit sandwich no one willingly eats–it doesn’t work because equality doesn’t exist.

    The only equality aspired in our founding documents is equality before the law–a fairness based on what and not who–and even that is difficult to actualize.

  156. @Jack D
    You've seen the graph. Regardless of what the mortality is and whether it is inevitable that everyone will eventually get it if they don't develop a vaccine, having it spread slowly is better because there is a short term (and not very high) ceiling on medical resources, especially in the US where the idea of build a new hospital in 10 days like the Chinese did is a pipe dream. Regardless of the urgency, in 10 days they would still be interviewing for the diversity coordinator and the actual time to build a new hospital here is closer to 10 YEARS than 10 days. Once you exceed the ceiling on medical resources you then have to triage the elderly and those with other risk factors and just let them die because you need to save the ventilators for people whose odds are better. Having the same number of cases spread out over a year is much better than having them all happen in a few weeks.

    That is a model and based on certain assumptions. The Chinese already lied about how infectious coronavirus was.

    Having the same number of cases spread out over a year is much better than having them all happen in a few weeks.

    It is like chemotherapy for cancer,whether the most aggressive type of treatment is the best option depends how aggressive invasive or virulent the disease is. There isn’t a way to know whether that is the case, so pretending that the question of what to do is as simple as reading a graph is unfounded. There are also things like economic considerations.

    Lipkin is a world authority and he said “this virus is probably going to be with us for some time to come. It might become endemic, like measles.”

  157. @J.Ross
    Italian anon says it's bad. Copied assertion below more tag. tldr it went from flu to the movie "Outbreak" in two days, major problem being hospitals, excellent in this case, getting overwhelmed. Military brought in to enforce quarantines, all activities cancelled. Old people with multiple problems don't even get triaged.



    This thread is dedicated to all those who are wondering what is going on in Italy.
    I would like to share what is the situation here and ultimately share an advice to all those who will listen: brace for impact.

    I live in a region in the very north of Italy known as Alto-Adige or South Tyrol.
    We are the last region before Austria and our province is arguably the richest in the country.

    We have one of the most advanced healthcare system in Italy with a total of 7 hospitals. I'd like to emphasize that we have 7 hospitals for a population of roughly 500.000 people. And that we have doctors from Italy, Germany, Austria, and Switzerland as our region is officially bilingual (German and Italian).

    The situation is as follows:
    >hospitals are already running at capacity
    >triage tents have been setup in front of hospitals like during wartime
    >if you are over 65 or have comorbidities you will be rejected

    Let's get more into details of how bad it is:
    >military personnel have been dispatched all over the region
    >checkpoints have been set up on all roads
    >you can't leave your comune without authorization
    >markets are empty
    >streets are empty
    >all activities have been cancelled
    >universities, research institutions, schools, kindergarten are all closed

    Today it got even worse:
    >officers with masks and gloves knocked on our door
    >took the count of the people in the house
    >reminded that we can't go outside
    >checked the temperature of everyone
    >told us to disinfect with pure alcohol all surfaces in our house, especially door handles

    Things evolved really quickly.
    Two days ago nobody really cared.
    Yesterday they interrupted all television broadcast. Full quarantine. The whole country. Nobody comes in. Nobody goes out.
    Today military checkpoints were setup. Officers are knocking on your door. You can't leave. You can't move. You have to stay indoor.

    This is madness. This doesn't look like reality anymore.

    I hate to disturb anyone’s preconceived notion of socialized healthcare in Italy, but my life-long friend who’s a doctor in Tuscany has said for his adult life, that the last thing you want to have happen, if you get sick, is to go to hospital in Italy. Staffing shortages are endemic–not doctors necessarily, but support staff, nurses. You’ll get better care at home from your family, i.e. meals, washing, clothing and bedding change–which your family will likely have to do if you’re in hospital.

    You need a surgeon–fine, you need a broken bone set and splinted–fine, you have an acute issue for an ER visit–fine. You need chronic care with a hospital stay–that gets iffy,

    Socialized medicine in first world countries, while the actual medicine is on par with medicine elsewhere, the problems/challenges are all the usual with socialism, i.e. cost containment. This means capacity constraints, i.e. capital equipment, facilities, and support staff are all limited. System capacity is built for average, typical needs–what excess capacity exists is for normal fluctuations in demand. There’s no (profit) incentive to have reserve or excess capacity because it is a cost-based system where the incentive is to limit costs. Capital equipment, facilities, and staffing are kept to bare minimums.

    Who remembers the 2003 heat wave in Europe which led to 70,000 elderly dead?? The shortcomings in equipment, facilities, staffing in European socialized healthcare was considered the proximate cause of the spike in deaths.

  158. @Charles Erwin Wilson
    Thank you Corvinus once again.

    No one has succeeded like you in presenting the view from inside your own large colon looking out through your sphincter like you have. We all admire you for elbowing your siblings aside and courageously stepping up to the keyboard.

    What would we do, and what would American society (nay the Entire World (tm)) do without your vantage-informed perspicacity?

    You are a wonder Corvinus, you really are.

    Diarrhea of the mouth is a wonder…well, not exactly a wonder…more like a plague to be avoided…

  159. @Sean

    As Cochran sums up by quoting Douglas MacArthur:

    There is no substitute for victory.
     

    Doug wanted to eradicate the problem by following it back to the source, and them sterilise the Chinese re-infection in Korea (by nuking them). However, he learnt from it and in private with JFK and Johnstone MacArthur warned against getting into another Asian land war through involvement in Vietnam.

    Chinese are a unique people. Koreans even more so; they are the least individualistic in the world. I just wonder if with a population that is worried about their social credit score and in a totalitarian state or Korean you could fail to get enough cooperation. It is not clear what Koreans are willing to do (spend couple of hundred dollars on testing and quarantine themselves in their home) would be acquiesced in by Western diverse populations.


    https://www.thedailybeast.com/italys-coronavirus-lockdown-shows-why-mass-quarantines-wont-work-in-the-west ROME—A couple of hours before Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte signed an unprecedented novel coronavirus containment decree around 2 a.m. Sunday, the draft document had already leaked.

    Whether it was intentionally given to the press—as most cynical Italians believe—or an honest mistake, it had a predictable outcome. Thousands of people threw whatever they could into suitcases and jumped in their cars or ran for the nearest train station to get the hell out of Dodge (or, rather Milan and Venice) before they were locked in
     

    It's by the Amanda Knox guilter witch Barbie Nadeau, not the most persuasive evidence of its value, but still. You know some people would say afterwards that the aggressive approach had made things much worse whether it had or not. But could it? It would be nice to have a model beforehand. Trump would need to know beforehand, because he gets very little credit for anything going right.

    Back in 2011 Dr. W. Ian Lipkin ( John Snow Professor of Epidemiology, and Director of the Center for Infection and Immunity, at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, dubbed a “master virus-hunter” by Zimmer in the New York Times) was being interviewed about the then-just-premiered movie Contagion, which he was an advisor to. Lipkin noted that: 'The Royal Astronomer, Martin Rees, predicts that a serious biological threat will emerge to claim at least one million lives by 2020. Only time will tell whether he’s right or wrong'.


    Just last week the New Yorker reported that Lipkin " was dressed for TV—he’d been making the rounds. “I never turn down Fox,” he said. “It’s an opportunity to preach in the wilderness.”. You see what Trump is up against.


    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/03/09/a-local-guide-to-the-coronavirus Lipkin said. “On December 31st, researchers there identified it as a coronavirus but said, ‘It’s not highly transmissible.’ So much for that assessment!” He went on, “It’s going to be difficult to know who knew what when.” [...] Lipkin was more concerned with the virus itself: how widely it has spread, why some people get it and others don’t, how to counteract it. “The trick with all this is, it’s an arms race,” he said. “The virus is evading you. You want to make sure you keep up with it.” He added that he was “cautiously optimistic” that citizens and governments will now be more careful, and that we can accelerate the development of drugs and a vaccine. Still, he said, “things are going to get shut down. And this virus is probably going to be with us for some time to come. It might become endemic, like measles.”
     

    Thousands of people threw whatever they could into suitcases and jumped in their cars or ran for the nearest train station to get the hell out of Dodge

    Whaddya think they did in Wuhan on Jan 23?? Five million people evacuated the city.

    Please, spare us the nay-sayers and so-called experts with their predictions. No one has past experience with this particular virus, so all they offer is an uninformed opinion.

  160. @Liberty Mike
    The type of people who support the War of Northern Aggression favor totalitarian approaches to handling the Wuhan virus.

    The type of people who support the War of Northern Aggression favor totalitarian approaches to handling the Wuhan virus.

    The type of people who call it the War of Northern Aggression are the type of people who should be forced to live in unsegregated work camps with no air conditioning in Mississippi.

    • Replies: @Liberty Mike
    Thank you, you are making my point.
  161. @candid_observer
    One thing about pushing down R naught -- not all segments of the US population are high in conscientiousness. R nought could go down within many segments, but not in others, keeping the average above 1.

    We are not all East Asians.

    And we have more homeless and drug users, etc.

    Some candid observation here from Northern edge of Oregon, shouting distance from Washington State line, the epicenter of the pandemic:

    Just went out in the morning for buying essentials after being home bound for a week. Traffic was light, most shoppers seemed to be consciously or unconsciously observing social distancing, generally trying to avoid being near each other. The stores were well stocked, the only exception being complete draw down 0n toilet paper at Costco. Totally strange since all food items were plentiful, paper towels, detergents, cleaning supplies all available. The grocery store next door did have TP, though it appeared half empty (just TP shelves, everything else full!)

    But the most distressing observation was, when I went to the restroom and was standing at the sink doing my 20 second hand wash, I observed 3 or 4 men, all middle aged (and appeared to be middle class/working class whites), barely wetting their hands, less than 5 seconds of wash, not even making an attempt to rub hands together. Considering we have an emergency declaration in the county and state, and dead bodies piling up just north of us, it was a dispiriting observation.

  162. @Sean
    China is a totalitarian state and

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/03/09/a-local-guide-to-the-coronavirus Lipkin said. “On December 31st, researchers there identified it as a coronavirus but said, ‘It’s not highly transmissible.’
     
    You cannot believe anything the Chinese tell you, or rather you can by taking it on trust because there is no way to confirm it. South Korea has dealt with Coronavirus best, but without lockdown on the epidemic cities and areas. However the South Koreans so far infected are much younger that their population, which is willing to self test and self isolate, whereas Italians packed their bags and took an impromptu vacation, which is the right thing to do when putting the wellbeing of themself and their family first.

    The death rates the WHO put out and are being used for projections are not age adjusted. Donald Trump's hunch that it is nowhere near 1% is likely correct. It would be better to say that it is a flu type mortality because in the West the scare tactic is likely to cause the virus to spread and be worse that it otherwise would have been, and inflict serious economic damage as everything gets shut down. Of course if the virus really does have an age adjusted death rate of anything like 1% then not being draconian with measures against it will be a terrible mistake.

    You cannot believe anything the Chinese tell you, or rather you can by taking it on trust because there is no way to confirm it.

    In recent weeks the Chinese have been cooperating with the WHO, who have a team in Wuhan.

    The death rates the WHO put out and are being used for projections are not age adjusted. Donald Trump’s hunch that it is nowhere near 1% is likely correct.

    The age adjusted mortality figures are known. The overall mortality figure is in the region of 2.5% of identified cases. Western countries have an ageing population, but perhaps not as bad as China’s, so our overall mortality may be a little lower. The best thing Donald Trump can do is remain silent and let the CDC do the talking.

    Image from https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-compared-to-flu-mortality-rates-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

    https://i.insider.com/5e5fc740fee23d14eb3dd212?width=600&format=jpeg&auto=webp (click for graph of mortality by age)

    It would be better to say that it is a flu type mortality because in the West the scare tactic is likely to cause the virus to spread and be worse that it otherwise would have been, and inflict serious economic damage as everything gets shut down.

    You may be right that the knowledge we have is likely to lead to a worse outcome than would ensue from public ignorance. However, I doubt that deception would work. Anyone with sufficient interest can use Google to discover the facts.

    Of course if the virus really does have an age adjusted death rate of anything like 1% then not being draconian with measures against it will be a terrible mistake.

    If 25% of the US population becomes infected, and 2.5% of those die, that amounts to 2 million dead – a huge number, but only an additional 50% above the usual annual death rate of 4 million, and almost entirely consisting of people whose life expectancy was already short because of pre-existing medical conditions. How long should we shut down the economy to save this 2 million? 3 months? A year? Are there any better strategies, such as paying people to help the sick and elderly self-isolate, while the rest of us take our chances with business-as-usual?

    • Replies: @Jack D
    Mortality is nowhere near 2.5%. The accepted figure is now more like 1%, which is still bad (10x the mortality from seasonal flu) but not as bad. So that would make your number 750K, not 2M, assuming the infection spread thru 25% of the population. In China and SK, it does not appear anywhere close to 25% of the population will become infected based on current trends. Whether the US can achieve in 2020 what the Asians did remains to be seen.

    Is it worth crashing the economy for this? It is if you are one of the people who is going to die from it otherwise.
    , @Lockean Proviso
    In Italy, the fatality rate is reported to be over 6% among the identified cases due to lack of beds, oxygen, and ventilators:

    "In Milan, in Bergamo, in Padua, they are having to choose between intubating a 40-year-old with two kids, a 40-year old who is fit and healthy with no co-morbidities, and a 60-year-old with high blood pressure, because they don't have enough beds. In the hallway, meanwhile, there are another 15 people waiting who are already hardly breathing and need oxygen."

    https://www.newsweek.com/young-unafraid-coronavirus-pandemic-good-you-now-stop-killing-people-opinion-1491797

  163. We’ll know we’re in trouble when some American icons like,say,Tom Hanks and his wife,Rita,test positive for the Coronavirus.

  164. @James N. Kennett

    You cannot believe anything the Chinese tell you, or rather you can by taking it on trust because there is no way to confirm it.
     
    In recent weeks the Chinese have been cooperating with the WHO, who have a team in Wuhan.

    The death rates the WHO put out and are being used for projections are not age adjusted. Donald Trump’s hunch that it is nowhere near 1% is likely correct.
     
    The age adjusted mortality figures are known. The overall mortality figure is in the region of 2.5% of identified cases. Western countries have an ageing population, but perhaps not as bad as China's, so our overall mortality may be a little lower. The best thing Donald Trump can do is remain silent and let the CDC do the talking.

    Image from https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-compared-to-flu-mortality-rates-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

    https://i.insider.com/5e5fc740fee23d14eb3dd212?width=600&format=jpeg&auto=webp (click for graph of mortality by age)


    It would be better to say that it is a flu type mortality because in the West the scare tactic is likely to cause the virus to spread and be worse that it otherwise would have been, and inflict serious economic damage as everything gets shut down.

     

    You may be right that the knowledge we have is likely to lead to a worse outcome than would ensue from public ignorance. However, I doubt that deception would work. Anyone with sufficient interest can use Google to discover the facts.

    Of course if the virus really does have an age adjusted death rate of anything like 1% then not being draconian with measures against it will be a terrible mistake.

     

    If 25% of the US population becomes infected, and 2.5% of those die, that amounts to 2 million dead - a huge number, but only an additional 50% above the usual annual death rate of 4 million, and almost entirely consisting of people whose life expectancy was already short because of pre-existing medical conditions. How long should we shut down the economy to save this 2 million? 3 months? A year? Are there any better strategies, such as paying people to help the sick and elderly self-isolate, while the rest of us take our chances with business-as-usual?

    Mortality is nowhere near 2.5%. The accepted figure is now more like 1%, which is still bad (10x the mortality from seasonal flu) but not as bad. So that would make your number 750K, not 2M, assuming the infection spread thru 25% of the population. In China and SK, it does not appear anywhere close to 25% of the population will become infected based on current trends. Whether the US can achieve in 2020 what the Asians did remains to be seen.

    Is it worth crashing the economy for this? It is if you are one of the people who is going to die from it otherwise.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason

    The accepted figure is now more like 1%, which is still bad (10x the mortality from seasonal flu) but not as bad.
     
    This is true, but if vast numbers of people are very sick and unable to work, especially people who work in health care and law enforcement, there are going to be huge, huge problems in the economy.

    At this point nobody is even talking about rioting and looting, and God knows I hope it doesn't get to that, but who knows if it could get so bad in some areas that civilization would start to break down altogether.
  165. I think it is pretty clear that the the truth of what happened in Wuhan is something we will never know, Lipkin was lied to when they told him it was not very infectious, then they switched feet and came out with this high estimate. And now they are supposed to be the great experts? Trump knows the Chinese for what they are. These are people who harvest organs from dissidents.

    The death rate in China (apart from Wuhan ) is about 0.7%, that is about the same as South Korea at 0.7%. And this is in East Asians who have more ACE2 , which is what the coronavirus hijacks. Maybe the Chinese were playing for time initially; the Chairman of the Communist Party of China would not hesitate to cordon off a city and let an epidemic kill thousands and facilities be overwhelmed.

  166. @Jack D
    You've seen the graph. Regardless of what the mortality is and whether it is inevitable that everyone will eventually get it if they don't develop a vaccine, having it spread slowly is better because there is a short term (and not very high) ceiling on medical resources, especially in the US where the idea of build a new hospital in 10 days like the Chinese did is a pipe dream. Regardless of the urgency, in 10 days they would still be interviewing for the diversity coordinator and the actual time to build a new hospital here is closer to 10 YEARS than 10 days. Once you exceed the ceiling on medical resources you then have to triage the elderly and those with other risk factors and just let them die because you need to save the ventilators for people whose odds are better. Having the same number of cases spread out over a year is much better than having them all happen in a few weeks.

    especially in the US where the idea of build a new hospital in 10 days like the Chinese did is a pipe dream. Regardless of the urgency, in 10 days they would still be interviewing for the diversity coordinator and the actual time to build a new hospital here is closer to 10 YEARS than 10 days.

    This is a time where smart conservatives would be emphasizing that regulation has costs. In this case, all the regulations around construction, especially the onerous ones around hospitals, are going to cost lives. Who knows how many will die that don’t have to. Intelligent conservatives would be pushing for policy changes, not tax cuts.

  167. @Jack D
    Mortality is nowhere near 2.5%. The accepted figure is now more like 1%, which is still bad (10x the mortality from seasonal flu) but not as bad. So that would make your number 750K, not 2M, assuming the infection spread thru 25% of the population. In China and SK, it does not appear anywhere close to 25% of the population will become infected based on current trends. Whether the US can achieve in 2020 what the Asians did remains to be seen.

    Is it worth crashing the economy for this? It is if you are one of the people who is going to die from it otherwise.

    The accepted figure is now more like 1%, which is still bad (10x the mortality from seasonal flu) but not as bad.

    This is true, but if vast numbers of people are very sick and unable to work, especially people who work in health care and law enforcement, there are going to be huge, huge problems in the economy.

    At this point nobody is even talking about rioting and looting, and God knows I hope it doesn’t get to that, but who knows if it could get so bad in some areas that civilization would start to break down altogether.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    This comment could be a South Park bit from when they were funny.
    Look, I don't want to scare anyone, but let's face facts, nobody's even talking about this yet, nobody has said anything about this, there simply is no discussion of duct taping cats to your head, getting up on the table, unzipping your trousers, and micturating into your own face while singing Hello Dolly, nobody talks about that. And all I'm saying is, maybe, just maybe, there's a reason nobody is talking about that.
  168. @RebelWriter
    No one opposed to Trump will change their vote based on who's on the Dem ticket, and vice versa. This election will be a numbers game, not a popularity contest.

    In which case we lose because the Republicans refuse to fight.

  169. @Jonathan Mason

    The accepted figure is now more like 1%, which is still bad (10x the mortality from seasonal flu) but not as bad.
     
    This is true, but if vast numbers of people are very sick and unable to work, especially people who work in health care and law enforcement, there are going to be huge, huge problems in the economy.

    At this point nobody is even talking about rioting and looting, and God knows I hope it doesn't get to that, but who knows if it could get so bad in some areas that civilization would start to break down altogether.

    This comment could be a South Park bit from when they were funny.
    Look, I don’t want to scare anyone, but let’s face facts, nobody’s even talking about this yet, nobody has said anything about this, there simply is no discussion of duct taping cats to your head, getting up on the table, unzipping your trousers, and micturating into your own face while singing Hello Dolly, nobody talks about that. And all I’m saying is, maybe, just maybe, there’s a reason nobody is talking about that.

  170. @HammerJack
    We here in the USA have had two months to construct hospitals. More reasonably: extensions to existing hospitals in order to increase capacity. Fast tracking construction using or modifying existing plans.

    Guess how many beds we've added? Yep.

    Two months isn't enough, some may say? Well, we don't need them today: we need them a month from now. And three months is enough to have gotten some additions built. We haven't even tried.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/how-deadly-coronavirus-toll/

    At this point, we need to have FEMA trailers ready to bring onsite at hospitals or at satellite locations to serve as rooms, make contingency plans for using National Guard armories with multiple COVID beds, and focus on manufacturing and obtaining oxygen generators, tanks, and supply lines, as well as ventilators. Protective masks and sanitizer need to be made and provided to all and not left for hoarders to grab up. Grants need to be made for US manufacturing to transition to making medical supplies, and under-30s trained and paid to become medics and EMTs.

    This is a war and we need to transition to a wartime economy. Those who fear socialism need to realize that a little now can forestall a lot later. If this turns out as badly as it is currently heading, the loss of older citizens and the outcome of a botched response due to unwillingness to make decisions that have short-term losses for private interests will discredit market economics in the eyes of a transformed, significantly younger electorate that rejects core American values as being associated with an avoidable disaster.

    • Agree: Mr McKenna
  171. What happened to the need for “transparency”?

    Reuters published a report on Thursday, March 12, 2020, headlined:

    White House ‘told health agency to keep a lid on virus meets’

    https://www.chinadailyhk.com/article/124059#White-House-‘told-health-agency-to-keep-a-lid-on-virus-meets’

    WASHINGTON – The White House has ordered federal health officials to treat top-level coronavirus meetings as classified, an unusual step that has restricted information and hampered the US government’s response to the contagion, according to four Trump administration officials.

    The officials said that dozens of classified discussions about such topics as the scope of infections, quarantines and travel restrictions have been held since mid-January in a high-security meeting room at the Department of Health & Human Services (HHS), a key player in the fight against the coronavirus.

    Staffers without security clearances, including government experts, were excluded from the interagency meetings, which included video conference calls, the sources said.

    Wasn’t it White House officials and the US media condemning China for not being sufficiently ‘transparent’? What would have been the reaction if China had classified all meetings and discussions of the virus?

    American hypocrisy, anyone?

  172. @candid_observer
    Point is, R naught might be below 1 for some period of time as the spread among the more conscientious is curtailed, but then, at a certain level of absolute numbers in infected, might stabilize near 1 on average.

    In principle, this might happen in Korea and China also.

    Maybe while the conscientious quarantine themselves the less-conscientious will go through getting sick and dying (alas!) or recovering (yay.). The doctors will practice on them, the wave will go through, then the right side of the bell curve can emerge into the summer sun. The immune system functions better in warm weather, the sun helps make vitamin D, and beds would be available for those who need them. It could be manageable.

    Or: angry thugs, gangbangers, escaped inmates, meth dealers, punks, antifa and other suchlike will loot and pillage everything, especially the hospitals, threatening medical staff to save momma and attacking them if they don’t. Order breaks down and chaos awaits the conscientious.

    Which will it be? Maybe when lots of powerful drugs begin to circulate, the problem will resolve itself.

  173. 149.Sean says:

    March 11, 2020

    “You cannot believe anything the Chinese tell you”

    But of course you can take to the bank everything the US government, the White House, American politicians, and the US media tell you, because none of them would ever, ever, lie about anything. There is no evidence – I repeat, NO evidence – that any of the above have ever lied or misled anyone about anything. Ever.

    168.Sean says:

    “[The Chinese] are people who harvest organs from dissidents.”

    Of course, you would know this because your information source is one of the above who, again, would never, ever, lie to anyone about anything. Nor would they ever make an accusation without first possessing overwhelming proof.

    162.Forbes says:

    ‘Whaddya think they did in Wuhan on Jan 23?? Five million people evacuated the city . . . all they offer is an uninformed opinion.”

    Unfortunately, ‘uninformed opinions’ is what we see from you. Nobody ‘evacuated’ Wuhan. People left the city on holiday prior to the the outbreak of the virus. Nothing more than that. Why do you obtain such satisfaction from spinning an innocent event into something sinister? Is that how you feel good to be an American?

    A question for thinking people: What is the source of this apparent eagerness of Americans to piss all over a country (and a people) about which none of you know anything? Has it ever occurred to any of you that the “Let’s all really hate China” stories flooding your media are part of a planned agenda? Has it never entered your consciousness that the stories of China harvesting organs from dissidents is exactly the same as the Nazis having huge tubs full of eyeballs or reducing Jews’ bodies to glycerine to make soap? Are all Americans really so ignorant?

    Has it ever occcurred to you that this hatred-BS is the standard behavior for your government and your media prior to a planned (or hoped-for) revolution or regime change? This has happened about 50 times in your country, in identical fashion, yet are all of you so stupid that you still cannot connect the dots?

    Vietnam was evil, Cuba was evil, Nicargua was evil, Afghanistan was evil, Venezuela is still evil, Iraq was evil, Libya was evil, Syria was evil, the Philippines were evil, Indonesia was evil, China is evil, Egpyt was evil, Jugoslavia was evil, Chile was evil, Russia is evil, Iran is evil, North Korea is evil. It never ends.

    Has it ever occurred to you that none of those countries are actually evil, and that it is only the US wanting commercial markets, raw materials, and political control of those countries, that is actually the evil one? I suppose not. After all, your’re Americans.

    The world sure as hell needs a regime change and the extermination of evil, but not in China.

  174. @James N. Kennett

    You cannot believe anything the Chinese tell you, or rather you can by taking it on trust because there is no way to confirm it.
     
    In recent weeks the Chinese have been cooperating with the WHO, who have a team in Wuhan.

    The death rates the WHO put out and are being used for projections are not age adjusted. Donald Trump’s hunch that it is nowhere near 1% is likely correct.
     
    The age adjusted mortality figures are known. The overall mortality figure is in the region of 2.5% of identified cases. Western countries have an ageing population, but perhaps not as bad as China's, so our overall mortality may be a little lower. The best thing Donald Trump can do is remain silent and let the CDC do the talking.

    Image from https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-compared-to-flu-mortality-rates-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

    https://i.insider.com/5e5fc740fee23d14eb3dd212?width=600&format=jpeg&auto=webp (click for graph of mortality by age)


    It would be better to say that it is a flu type mortality because in the West the scare tactic is likely to cause the virus to spread and be worse that it otherwise would have been, and inflict serious economic damage as everything gets shut down.

     

    You may be right that the knowledge we have is likely to lead to a worse outcome than would ensue from public ignorance. However, I doubt that deception would work. Anyone with sufficient interest can use Google to discover the facts.

    Of course if the virus really does have an age adjusted death rate of anything like 1% then not being draconian with measures against it will be a terrible mistake.

     

    If 25% of the US population becomes infected, and 2.5% of those die, that amounts to 2 million dead - a huge number, but only an additional 50% above the usual annual death rate of 4 million, and almost entirely consisting of people whose life expectancy was already short because of pre-existing medical conditions. How long should we shut down the economy to save this 2 million? 3 months? A year? Are there any better strategies, such as paying people to help the sick and elderly self-isolate, while the rest of us take our chances with business-as-usual?

    In Italy, the fatality rate is reported to be over 6% among the identified cases due to lack of beds, oxygen, and ventilators:

    “In Milan, in Bergamo, in Padua, they are having to choose between intubating a 40-year-old with two kids, a 40-year old who is fit and healthy with no co-morbidities, and a 60-year-old with high blood pressure, because they don’t have enough beds. In the hallway, meanwhile, there are another 15 people waiting who are already hardly breathing and need oxygen.”

    https://www.newsweek.com/young-unafraid-coronavirus-pandemic-good-you-now-stop-killing-people-opinion-1491797

    • Replies: @James N. Kennett

    In Italy, the fatality rate is reported to be over 6% among the identified cases due to lack of beds, oxygen, and ventilators
     
    This is correct. The cumulative totals for Italy on 12 March are 12,462 confirmed cases, and 827 deaths, a fatality rate of 6.6%.

    “In Milan, in Bergamo, in Padua, they are having to choose between intubating a 40-year-old with two kids, a 40-year old who is fit and healthy with no co-morbidities, and a 60-year-old with high blood pressure, because they don’t have enough beds. In the hallway, meanwhile, there are another 15 people waiting who are already hardly breathing and need oxygen.”
     
    The case for delaying tactics is that, even though the hospital system is overloaded by a factor of 10, more patients would survive if it were overloaded by only a factor of 5, albeit for twice as long.

    However, even doctors such as the one quoted by Newsweek are not entirely clear about the goal of social isolation for those at low risk. Is the goal to delay the spread of infection, or to prevent it? Is it inevitable that a substantial fraction of the population will catch the virus? If this outcome is preventable by a lockdown, will the outbreak resume when the lockdown is removed? Must that removal wait until the pandemic has run its course worldwide?
  175. @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    The type of people who support the War of Northern Aggression favor totalitarian approaches to handling the Wuhan virus.
     
    The type of people who call it the War of Northern Aggression are the type of people who should be forced to live in unsegregated work camps with no air conditioning in Mississippi.

    Thank you, you are making my point.

  176. @Lockean Proviso
    In Italy, the fatality rate is reported to be over 6% among the identified cases due to lack of beds, oxygen, and ventilators:

    "In Milan, in Bergamo, in Padua, they are having to choose between intubating a 40-year-old with two kids, a 40-year old who is fit and healthy with no co-morbidities, and a 60-year-old with high blood pressure, because they don't have enough beds. In the hallway, meanwhile, there are another 15 people waiting who are already hardly breathing and need oxygen."

    https://www.newsweek.com/young-unafraid-coronavirus-pandemic-good-you-now-stop-killing-people-opinion-1491797

    In Italy, the fatality rate is reported to be over 6% among the identified cases due to lack of beds, oxygen, and ventilators

    This is correct. The cumulative totals for Italy on 12 March are 12,462 confirmed cases, and 827 deaths, a fatality rate of 6.6%.

    “In Milan, in Bergamo, in Padua, they are having to choose between intubating a 40-year-old with two kids, a 40-year old who is fit and healthy with no co-morbidities, and a 60-year-old with high blood pressure, because they don’t have enough beds. In the hallway, meanwhile, there are another 15 people waiting who are already hardly breathing and need oxygen.”

    The case for delaying tactics is that, even though the hospital system is overloaded by a factor of 10, more patients would survive if it were overloaded by only a factor of 5, albeit for twice as long.

    However, even doctors such as the one quoted by Newsweek are not entirely clear about the goal of social isolation for those at low risk. Is the goal to delay the spread of infection, or to prevent it? Is it inevitable that a substantial fraction of the population will catch the virus? If this outcome is preventable by a lockdown, will the outbreak resume when the lockdown is removed? Must that removal wait until the pandemic has run its course worldwide?

  177. @Hypnotoad666

    There are estimates that in Iran > 1 million people are infected. That’s not that many doubling times from having herd immunity
     
    That is a good point about achieving herd immunity in the hard-hit areas. From what I've been hearing, though, they haven't figured out the extent of people's post-infection immunity -- i.e., how strong it is, and how long it lasts.

    I don’t know how anyone would empirically test this, but with SARS it apparently lasted 3 years. That’s probably the best guess for this current virus. For most coronaviruses immunity seems to last at least a year.

  178. @Anon
    Steve, you misguided bigot. The New Yorker has the scoop from progressive academic public health academic Wendy Palmer.

    No country can simply quarantine its way out of the COVID-19 crisis, Wendy E. Parmet, the director of the Center for Health Policy and Law at Northeastern University, told me. "There are reasons to be skeptical of the efficacy of quarantine for respiratory diseases like coronavirus." Quarantines can be a useful tool when done well. They can lower infection rates "a bit" and buy time, she said. But they have been done historically in discriminatory and haphazard ways that provide "a seductive illusion of containment."
     
    The word Trump does not appear, but they seem to be chomping at the bit to say it. And "norms" are at stake.

    The quarantines in China were misguided and too much, too late, Parmet told me. They have been done in ways that could jeopardize lives, because healthy and ill people are stuck together in vast geographic regions. “In these massive-scale quarantines, you are pushing deeply into potential human-rights violations,” Sauer said. “We have to be careful about everything we condone, whether active or passive. This is the time when social norms can change, and personal liberties are at risk.” By their nature, quarantines encourage xenophobia, division, and the muscular exercise of state power. “There are also long-term political consequences,” she added. “The intangible consequences pushing toward authoritarian rule concerns me a lot.”
     
    Honestly, why the hell are public health professionals telling us about their political views? Stay in your lane!

    One increasingly common practice has been quarantining passengers returning from so-called hot zones, or countries with numerous coronavirus cases, including China, Italy, Iran, South Korea, and Japan. But, with more than a hundred countries now hit, the requirements needed to effectively quarantine the volume of passengers from so many places could overwhelm systems.
     
    I don't see how "systems would be overwhelmed" if the borders were simply closed? You could send most of the air traffic control staff home for a well needed vacation.

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/how-much-of-the-world-will-be-quarantined-by-the-coronavirus

    “In these massive-scale quarantines, you are pushing deeply into potential human-rights violations,” Sauer said.

    If governments can not access extraordinary, emergency-level powers during a global pandemic, then what good are they? Perhaps we should revert to anarchism?

  179. @J.Ross
    It looks like Sanders is out. I thought he would win Michigan at least. Waiting to see vote turnout to compare Biden's [cough cough, fraud] result with Republicans who bothered showing up and did not need to; last week it was favorable for the incumbent. Exit polls have blacks almost unanimously for Biden.

    Follow up to this: Joe Biden won with double digit exit poll discrepencies which always favored him. I’m sure Trump will monitor the situation.
    https://postimg.cc/nsJfkq3t

  180. @AnotherDad
    Agree Piltdown.

    The opening of Enoch Powell's "Rivers of Blood" speech is simply one of the best--i'd say the best--of any political speech. The absolute clarity of truth is stunning.

    Reading it unfortunately highlights what a bunch of pathetic, juvenile, scum sucking nitwits we have as our "leaders" today.

    I’ve read it before and I’m reading it again, and I’m amazed at how prescient it was.

  181. @Futurethirdworlder
    I think the gov't response will completely depend on economics. If they think doing nothing will be best for the economy they will do nothing. If they think a full blown response is what is best for the economy they will do whatever they think is necessary.

    That’s true, but the reason we are in such a mess now, for example the excruciating stock market selloff and excruciating asset bubbles (housing affordability etc.), is not because of the virus. That’s just like a pin popping a ridiculously overinflated balloon. Now that they’ve made such a mess, yes the government has to be heavily involved in fixing it. But that’s not going to the root of the problem which is, basically, running of the economy has been subcontracted out to a cartel of central bank controlled banks. And any serious attempt to make long-term changes that really stick, requires getting rid of this vicious cartel and the wrongheaded economic theories that underpin it.

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