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Covid Hits Whites Harder Than Blacks in Latest Wave, Nobody Notices
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We’ve heard an immense amount about the “inequity” that caused blacks to get hit harder than whites by the first wave of the pandemic last spring, but almost nothing about how blacks were hit least hard by the third wave that is finally now receding. Here is the CDC’s graph of weekly deaths (all causes) in 2020 compared to the 2015-19 average.

You can see the familiar three hump pattern. It’s interesting, however, how sharply the non-Hispanic black humps decline, with the spring being very bad, the summer not so bad, and the big Third Wave late in 2020 barely showing up. Indeed, the late 2020 wave appears to have hit non-Hispanic whites harder than blacks, although that fact hasn’t gotten much publicity. For example, in Week 50 of 2020 in mid-December, white deaths were 36% above the recent multiyear average for that week, while black deaths were 27% higher than normal. (Note, not all deaths from December have yet trickled into the CDC, so the final numbers will be a little highter.)

In contrast, Hispanics got him about equally hard all three times. American Indians just seem to have it bad all the time.

I wonder what explains these patterns.

 
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  1. I wonder what explains these patterns.

    White Privilege. Because it explains every bad thing that ever happens, or ever will happen.

    • LOL: acementhead
  2. 1) Of course, nobody notice disadvantaged whites. Blacks and minorities are the only populations of concern.

    Whites gave up all civil rights, human rights, and constitutional rights! Whites surrendered with the civil-rights-for-Blacks-only laws of 1965.
    Plus when they did not protest the media gag orders about black crimes and the police orders to hush up black crime. Plus when they accepted Margareth Mead’s and Boas’ falsifications without shunning them forever.

    Therefore we have unequal rights. Official Black and „minority“ privilege to fight alleged white privilege.

    2) How close are Blacks to herd immunity? Could that be an explanation?

  3. I wonder what explains these patterns.

    Blacks front loaded their cases via their lesser ability/desire to follow direction.

    The rest looks pretty much per spec. Hispanics continue to run hotter than whites. More crowded and more multi-generational households.

    • Agree: Harry Baldwin
    • Replies: @Art Deco
    @AnotherDad

    Blacks front loaded their cases via their lesser ability/desire to follow direction.

    Or they front loaded their cases because they were more likely to work in jobs where you breathe the same air as random strangers: nursing assistants, home health aides, bus drivers, barbers, cab drivers, sky caps and then spread more rapidly because blacks aspirate more in ordinary conversation.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    , @Chrisnonymous
    @AnotherDad


    Blacks front loaded their cases
     
    That would be a kind of qualified herd immunity, but the black population of the US is about twice as large as the Asian one, so why don't we see the same effect there?

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

  4. Anon[107] • Disclaimer says:

    It means that people who were really prone to dying of Covid are either mostly gone now or they recovered and are now immune. Blacks ignored the warnings and got nailed hard early, and part of their epidemic is over. They likely have a higher percentage of herd immunity than any other race at this point.

    Those that are left are either 1) really good at isolating themselves from others (being unsocial is a mainly a white trait), or off where no one was interested in going (American Indian Reservations-that’s why they got hit later), or are Hispanic illegals who are traveling back and forth over the border or moving around the US a lot looking for jobs. When many people lost their jobs during the Covid crisis, this resulted in a lot of Hispanic unemployment and caused them to uproot and go looking for work. The more you travel, the more likely you’re going to get infected.

    A lot of the jobs male Hispanics do is seasonal, (construction, yard care, crop harvesting) and they move around looking for jobs even more than whites do. This keeps their Covid exposure and infection rates churning at a high rate.

    Because of their mobility, they are the main culprits in keeping this epidemic going in both the US and Mexico, and both countries would have seen a leveling-off akin to the black rate if Hispanics would quit moving around so much.

    If you look at Mexico’s infection rate, Covid had a big boost in November and a bigger boost in January. It shot up when Hispanics who had seen their yard, farm, and construction jobs end for the winter, so they went back home to Mexico. They were joined by a big wave of Hispanics whose restaurant jobs had vanished. They brought a wave of Covid into Mexico with them.

    A warning: When the big migration of Mexicans returns to the US in the Spring, those who have not yet been vaccinated are likely to get nailed by Covid. Our rates are going to increase again.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Anon

    "Blacks ignored the warnings and got nailed hard early, and part of their epidemic is over. They likely have a higher percentage of herd immunity than any other race at this point."

    Why not Latinos?

    Replies: @jon, @Muse

  5. @Anon
    It means that people who were really prone to dying of Covid are either mostly gone now or they recovered and are now immune. Blacks ignored the warnings and got nailed hard early, and part of their epidemic is over. They likely have a higher percentage of herd immunity than any other race at this point.

    Those that are left are either 1) really good at isolating themselves from others (being unsocial is a mainly a white trait), or off where no one was interested in going (American Indian Reservations-that's why they got hit later), or are Hispanic illegals who are traveling back and forth over the border or moving around the US a lot looking for jobs. When many people lost their jobs during the Covid crisis, this resulted in a lot of Hispanic unemployment and caused them to uproot and go looking for work. The more you travel, the more likely you're going to get infected.

    A lot of the jobs male Hispanics do is seasonal, (construction, yard care, crop harvesting) and they move around looking for jobs even more than whites do. This keeps their Covid exposure and infection rates churning at a high rate.

    Because of their mobility, they are the main culprits in keeping this epidemic going in both the US and Mexico, and both countries would have seen a leveling-off akin to the black rate if Hispanics would quit moving around so much.

    If you look at Mexico's infection rate, Covid had a big boost in November and a bigger boost in January. It shot up when Hispanics who had seen their yard, farm, and construction jobs end for the winter, so they went back home to Mexico. They were joined by a big wave of Hispanics whose restaurant jobs had vanished. They brought a wave of Covid into Mexico with them.

    A warning: When the big migration of Mexicans returns to the US in the Spring, those who have not yet been vaccinated are likely to get nailed by Covid. Our rates are going to increase again.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    “Blacks ignored the warnings and got nailed hard early, and part of their epidemic is over. They likely have a higher percentage of herd immunity than any other race at this point.”

    Why not Latinos?

    • Replies: @jon
    @Steve Sailer


    Why not Latinos?
     
    Maybe because the Latinx population has a lot of churn, meaning the Hispanics that are here now aren't necessarily the same as the ones that were here during the first two peaks.
    , @Muse
    @Steve Sailer

    Most of the Latinos around here work outside doing construction and landscaping. Others worked in restaurants. Restaurants are operating at reduced capacity, carry out or not at all.

    In northern states, there is no landscaping, and limited construction is being done.Lots of Hispanics, legal and illegal get out of the cold and go home or at least to warmer places for the winter.

    You get Covid from being in poorly ventilated enclosed spaces with infected people. It is 14 degrees outside tonight. Everybody has to be inside. Covid rates will be higher when people have to be inside either to escape the cold, or the hot weather.

    This may not be the same in places like California and Texas.

  6. What explains these patterns? My best guess is that for negroes, once the initial “blacks don’t get COVID” insanity had run its course, negroes started to acquire limited herd immunity. Factor in a native predisposition for superstition that increases prudent behavior if even for the wrong reasons.

    For native Americans and hispanics, many of whom are mestizos, and one wonders if a genetic component makes non-Europeans more susceptible.

  7. OT, Cicely Tyson died yesterday.
    Disclaimer at her Wiki entry

    This article is being heavily edited because its subject has recently died. Knowledge about the circumstances of the death and surrounding events may change rapidly as more facts come to light. Initial news reports may be unreliable,

    causes me to wonder if a CovidVax was in her recent past?

  8. A big part of the first wave was in New York City and the surrounding areas. This area was not hit so badly in the second and third waves. Could much of the difference be just geography ?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @AKAHorace

    The Third Wave originated in the Northern Great Plains, an exceptionally white part of the country.

    Replies: @Not Raul

  9. Looks like whites are weak

    Is it any wonder that white girls are increasingly choosing Men of Color to father there children?

    • Replies: @Ozymandias
    @Ocesio


    Looks like whites are weak
    Is it any wonder that white girls are increasingly choosing Men of Color to father there children?
     
    So your theory is that men of color are deliberately choosing weak mothers for their offspring? Sounds dysgenic. Does Leonard Pitts know about this?
    , @Rob Lee
    @Ocesio

    At the very least, Tiny Duck, I'm impressed by your ability to create scores of different accounts! You obviously work hard at being a troll. A question though: do you work equally hard in some other endeavor to contribute something of positive value to the society in which you live?

    , @MEH 0910
    @Ocesio

    https://twitter.com/TheRealOJ32/status/1355243085186256897

    , @Adam Smith
    @Ocesio

    ALL PEOPLE OF COLOUR AGREEE

    Hat tells you somthing right their

    Reed Adam Serwer you canot refute his twitter

    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/dd/60/0d/dd600d8aa28b3889bd4ac28f89a507b8.jpg

    Replies: @acementhead

    , @acementhead
    @Ocesio


    "... choosing Men of Color to father there children?"
     
    Are we Black?*





    *With apologies to Gene.
  10. I saw a video of British doctor/ex-Pfizer something-or-other Mike Yeadon saying the concept of “waves” is nonsense, and that any subsequent wave is simply the virus spreading among some population it hadn’t already reached, with seasonality and lockdowns delaying spread, too.

    Obviously I can’t vouch for that, being a humble fake ex-president – I probably haven’t even explained it right – but if it were so, it might account for the data: if the black population copped it worse at first, and if infection confers immunity, then there should simply be less blacks capable of being infected in each, er, “wave”.

    This effect would be more pronounced among ethnicities smaller in number and more concentrated geographically, and less pronounced among the more populous and widely-dispersed ethnicities.

    I don’t know enough of America to say whether that theory holds up against the data above.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    My vague hunch is that black airport workers were exposed back in the Tom Hanks Disease days of March.

    , @Travis
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    good point...the first wave in the US hit areas where a lot of Blacks live, such as New York and New Jersey....California got their first big wave this winter and very few Blacks live in California.

    Replies: @Harry Baldwin

  11. @AKAHorace
    A big part of the first wave was in New York City and the surrounding areas. This area was not hit so badly in the second and third waves. Could much of the difference be just geography ?

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    The Third Wave originated in the Northern Great Plains, an exceptionally white part of the country.

    • Replies: @Not Raul
    @Steve Sailer


    The Third Wave originated in the Northern Great Plains, an exceptionally white part of the country.
     
    I think that is a big part of the explanation.

    Also: It spread more quickly among black people back in the spring. It’s finally caught up to white people outside of urban areas, and they tend to be older.
  12. @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    I saw a video of British doctor/ex-Pfizer something-or-other Mike Yeadon saying the concept of "waves" is nonsense, and that any subsequent wave is simply the virus spreading among some population it hadn't already reached, with seasonality and lockdowns delaying spread, too.

    Obviously I can't vouch for that, being a humble fake ex-president - I probably haven't even explained it right - but if it were so, it might account for the data: if the black population copped it worse at first, and if infection confers immunity, then there should simply be less blacks capable of being infected in each, er, "wave".

    This effect would be more pronounced among ethnicities smaller in number and more concentrated geographically, and less pronounced among the more populous and widely-dispersed ethnicities.

    I don't know enough of America to say whether that theory holds up against the data above.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Travis

    My vague hunch is that black airport workers were exposed back in the Tom Hanks Disease days of March.

  13. Keep in mind steve, these are deaths above average, and the averages are not the same for all groups. Blacks generally die at twice the rates of whites, and asians half the rates of whites, while hispanics are midway between whites and asians (some ascribe the lower death rates among asians and hispanics to the healthy immigrant phenomenon, both that physically weak and sick people are less likely to immigrate, and that immigrants who are unsuccessful are both more likely to die young and return to their countries, leaving those who remain as healthier on average).

    So if you have covid killing an equal number of white/hispanic/asian/black people controlled for age, you’d expect the deaths above average to be lowest for blacks and highest for asians, than hispanics than whites. It could be the initial deaths for blacks was much higher.

    • Replies: @ic1000
    @Goorin

    > Blacks generally die at twice the rates of whites, and asians half the rates of whites, while hispanics are midway between whites and asians

    This is incorrect (think for a moment about the implications for life expectancies if it were true).

    , @JohnPlywood
    @Goorin

    ??

    Hispanics aren't doing better than whites. There should not even be any talk of Hispanics since their average age is like 13 in the USA. Old Hispanics are an extremely low percentage of the population.

    Whites are the oldest demographic group in America and therefore have way more at-risk seniors. White people are killing you blacks, Hispanics, Asians and Natives in Covid survivability.

  14. Looks like the black percentage increase in the third wave is about the same percentage increase as the white. (Not numbers of deaths.) the black deaths in the spring were much worse, percentage-wise.

    My guess is vitamin D. COVID was prominent in the month after the end of winter and low Vitamin D, which is much worse for blacks than whites due to skin tone. It killed so many vulnerable people in the first wave that it burned through the easy killings.

    You could test this by seeing if Black Death rates from COVID vary by latitude. Do blacks in LA die at a higher rate than those in Detroit, or lower?

  15. Encouraging news?

    Two Pfizer doses ‘are 99.96% effective’: Double jab weeks apart prevents almost ALL cases of Covid-19, research in Israel suggests

    Israeli research has found that just 0.04 per cent of those vaccinated with both doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine went on to develop coronavirus

    Of the 700,000 people vaccinated, just 300 later contracted Covid-19, with only 16 requiring hospital treatment, according to preliminary data

    The vaccine also protects against the more infectious UK variant, research suggests

    • Replies: @utu
    @The Last Real Calvinist

    99.96% sounds good but is misleading. You need to compare it with the number of how many got infected out of the un-vaccinated 700,000 sample in the same period. If vaccine efficacy is indeed 95% we may expect that 5,7000 would get infected. If more the the efficacy would be higher than 95%.

  16. Looks like whites are weaker is correct. All you white guys on here do is bitch and complain and do nothing to change things. You are under a curse now. The end of the white male is upon you. Why do you think so much is anti white now? Black men are worshipped by white women, culture is black now, music, sports, all dominated by black men. Your sperm counts are falling, look it up… White males in Europe are attacked, beaten, humiliated in sweden by forced taking off clothes,licking black mens feet, letting themselves be robbed and not fighting back so they dnt get beat up. White males are now the most unwanted demographic in any business now. All major companies have pledged to majorly increase ppl of color in the ranks and good jobs. Those who enslave shall go into slavery saith the bible. It dsnt lie. The bible says gods ppl shall number as the stars. That sure isnt white ppl w declining sperm counts and falling population and being swamped by immigrants in white nations. You shall be made small among the heathens saith the bible. Those who enslave shall go into captivity. This isnt a fantasy of long ago. God’s word never ceases. The sons shall hate theyre fathers for the lies they were told. Its all coming to pass but all you do is complain that all this anti white male hatred you know is upon you and you speak of it and wonder why. But you wont listen to truth. Esau, the so called white man, is the end of this world and Jacob is the beginning of the next. Saith the bible. Has the world ended yet? No… So you are the end of tgis world and Jacob who was born dark skinned is the beginning of the next world to follow. So many white males today are suicidal and drugged up, homeless, jobless, begging. Think youll rise again? 400 years is what the bible says and your time is up. I will carry my children by ships where they will be enslaved for 400 years, 1619-2019…and then i will carry you out of captivity and make you rulers. Read scriptures. All your answers are there

    • Agree: ic1000
    • Replies: @ic1000
    @Edomite male

    > So you are the end of tgis world

    Insightful! But your comments will be even better if you learn to use “Preview” to correct grammar and spelling errors before pressing “Publish.”

    Many readers won’t know that Tgis (not tgis) is a remote village on the banks of the Dnov River. It features in Viking Cruise ads as an exotic destination that is, figuratively speaking, at “the end of the world.”

    Thanks for the vacation hints.

    , @Ozymandias
    @Edomite male


    The end of the white male is upon you.
     
    Pretty sure the end of the white female will coincide. You colored folk aren't real big on the details of genetics, are you?
    , @JohnPlywood
    @Edomite male

    Wishful thinking!

    https://preview.redd.it/w30yn96uzvv01.png?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=4269d9b8f117a9f395b5eab374c24dc5bd493b43

    https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20180818_FBC544.png

  17. @Steve Sailer
    @AKAHorace

    The Third Wave originated in the Northern Great Plains, an exceptionally white part of the country.

    Replies: @Not Raul

    The Third Wave originated in the Northern Great Plains, an exceptionally white part of the country.

    I think that is a big part of the explanation.

    Also: It spread more quickly among black people back in the spring. It’s finally caught up to white people outside of urban areas, and they tend to be older.

  18. @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    I saw a video of British doctor/ex-Pfizer something-or-other Mike Yeadon saying the concept of "waves" is nonsense, and that any subsequent wave is simply the virus spreading among some population it hadn't already reached, with seasonality and lockdowns delaying spread, too.

    Obviously I can't vouch for that, being a humble fake ex-president - I probably haven't even explained it right - but if it were so, it might account for the data: if the black population copped it worse at first, and if infection confers immunity, then there should simply be less blacks capable of being infected in each, er, "wave".

    This effect would be more pronounced among ethnicities smaller in number and more concentrated geographically, and less pronounced among the more populous and widely-dispersed ethnicities.

    I don't know enough of America to say whether that theory holds up against the data above.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Travis

    good point…the first wave in the US hit areas where a lot of Blacks live, such as New York and New Jersey….California got their first big wave this winter and very few Blacks live in California.

    • Replies: @Harry Baldwin
    @Travis

    the first wave in the US hit areas where a lot of Blacks live, such as New York and New Jersey

    Yes, but in New. York and New Jersey it was the ultra-Orthodox and Hassidic Jews that were super-spreaders. Also, New York's governor Andrew Cuomo, revered by Democrats all, ordered nursing homes to take back COVID patients after they were released from the hospital. That decision may account for over 10,000 deaths. Still, the man's REVERED, I tell you! Those briefings he gives got him an Emmy!

    Replies: @James B. Shearer

  19. @Travis
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    good point...the first wave in the US hit areas where a lot of Blacks live, such as New York and New Jersey....California got their first big wave this winter and very few Blacks live in California.

    Replies: @Harry Baldwin

    the first wave in the US hit areas where a lot of Blacks live, such as New York and New Jersey

    Yes, but in New. York and New Jersey it was the ultra-Orthodox and Hassidic Jews that were super-spreaders. Also, New York’s governor Andrew Cuomo, revered by Democrats all, ordered nursing homes to take back COVID patients after they were released from the hospital. That decision may account for over 10,000 deaths. Still, the man’s REVERED, I tell you! Those briefings he gives got him an Emmy!

    • Replies: @James B. Shearer
    @Harry Baldwin

    "... revered by Democrats all, ,,"

    Actually the more lefty Democrats don't like Cuomo.

  20. @Steve Sailer
    @Anon

    "Blacks ignored the warnings and got nailed hard early, and part of their epidemic is over. They likely have a higher percentage of herd immunity than any other race at this point."

    Why not Latinos?

    Replies: @jon, @Muse

    Why not Latinos?

    Maybe because the Latinx population has a lot of churn, meaning the Hispanics that are here now aren’t necessarily the same as the ones that were here during the first two peaks.

  21. Geography, at least in part. Each wave primarily hit different regions of the country. So the death rates have to be compared to population for the region, not the whole country.

    That doesn’t explain all of the difference, but a good portion of it.

    • Agree: utu
  22. @Steve Sailer
    @Anon

    "Blacks ignored the warnings and got nailed hard early, and part of their epidemic is over. They likely have a higher percentage of herd immunity than any other race at this point."

    Why not Latinos?

    Replies: @jon, @Muse

    Most of the Latinos around here work outside doing construction and landscaping. Others worked in restaurants. Restaurants are operating at reduced capacity, carry out or not at all.

    In northern states, there is no landscaping, and limited construction is being done.Lots of Hispanics, legal and illegal get out of the cold and go home or at least to warmer places for the winter.

    You get Covid from being in poorly ventilated enclosed spaces with infected people. It is 14 degrees outside tonight. Everybody has to be inside. Covid rates will be higher when people have to be inside either to escape the cold, or the hot weather.

    This may not be the same in places like California and Texas.

  23. Over at Lion of the Blogosphere an interesting comment:
    As an illustration of the death rate in a young, healthy, fit population, as of January 4 there had been 110,018 confirmed cases in the US military, and 14 deaths. Yes, fourteen, I didn’t omit any zeroes. That’s 0.0127%.
    https://www.airforcemag.com/snapshot-dod-and-covid-19/
    The US has 2 million people in its various prison systems, how many confirmed cases amongst prisoners and how many deaths?

    • Replies: @utu
    @Templar

    0.0127% is about right. About 55% percent in military is younger than 34. And about 85% is younger than 44. Plus they are healthier in terms of obesity and metabolic diseases (diabetes, blood pressure).

    https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/demographics-us-military

    IFR < 0.013% for < 30 yo
    IFR < 0.1% for < 45 yo

    See Fig.3 in
    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33289900/#affiliation-1

    Replies: @Templar

    , @prosa123
    @Templar

    Over at Lion of the Blogosphere an interesting comment:
    As an illustration of the death rate in a young, healthy, fit population, as of January 4 there had been 110,018 confirmed cases in the US military, and 14 deaths. Yes, fourteen, I didn’t omit any zeroes. That’s 0.0127%.
    https://www.airforcemag.com/snapshot-dod-and-covid-19/
    The US has 2 million people in its various prison systems, how many confirmed cases amongst prisoners and how many deaths?

    That was my comment.
    As for prisons, the most recent information I can find is about six weeks old, and not especially precise. It says that there have been 275,000 cases among state and federal prisoners in the US and 1,700 deaths, which would yield a death rate around 0.62%. Prison inmates are mainly a young population with some exceptions. I would imagine that a substantial percentage are in less than ideal physical condition, with the effects of drug and alcohol use, and just plain hard living.
    https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/prisoners-us-covid-19-1700-died-74797059

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous

  24. So this iteration of covid 19 is anti racist? Ibram X. Kendi would be proud.

  25. @Templar
    Over at Lion of the Blogosphere an interesting comment:
    As an illustration of the death rate in a young, healthy, fit population, as of January 4 there had been 110,018 confirmed cases in the US military, and 14 deaths. Yes, fourteen, I didn’t omit any zeroes. That’s 0.0127%.
    https://www.airforcemag.com/snapshot-dod-and-covid-19/
    The US has 2 million people in its various prison systems, how many confirmed cases amongst prisoners and how many deaths?

    Replies: @utu, @prosa123

    0.0127% is about right. About 55% percent in military is younger than 34. And about 85% is younger than 44. Plus they are healthier in terms of obesity and metabolic diseases (diabetes, blood pressure).

    https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/demographics-us-military

    IFR < 0.013% for < 30 yo
    IFR < 0.1% for < 45 yo

    See Fig.3 in
    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33289900/#affiliation-1

    • Replies: @Templar
    @utu

    https://www.army.mil/article/210420/worldwide_flu_outbreak_killed_45000_american_soldiers_during_world_war_i
    The Spanish flu killed 45,000 US soldiers back in 1918/9

    Replies: @HA

  26. @The Last Real Calvinist
    Encouraging news?

    Two Pfizer doses 'are 99.96% effective': Double jab weeks apart prevents almost ALL cases of Covid-19, research in Israel suggests

    Israeli research has found that just 0.04 per cent of those vaccinated with both doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine went on to develop coronavirus

    Of the 700,000 people vaccinated, just 300 later contracted Covid-19, with only 16 requiring hospital treatment, according to preliminary data

    The vaccine also protects against the more infectious UK variant, research suggests
     

    Replies: @utu

    99.96% sounds good but is misleading. You need to compare it with the number of how many got infected out of the un-vaccinated 700,000 sample in the same period. If vaccine efficacy is indeed 95% we may expect that 5,7000 would get infected. If more the the efficacy would be higher than 95%.

  27. @utu
    @Templar

    0.0127% is about right. About 55% percent in military is younger than 34. And about 85% is younger than 44. Plus they are healthier in terms of obesity and metabolic diseases (diabetes, blood pressure).

    https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/demographics-us-military

    IFR < 0.013% for < 30 yo
    IFR < 0.1% for < 45 yo

    See Fig.3 in
    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33289900/#affiliation-1

    Replies: @Templar

    • Replies: @HA
    @Templar

    "The Spanish flu killed 45,000 US soldiers back in 1918/9"

    Yes, but don't forget that many of these 45,000 soldiers had spent the last couple of years pickling their feet in muck-filled trenches, huffing high-tar army-grade tobacco and sipping all kinds of questionable hooch, and consorting with various cultural flavors of prostitutes -- and dealing with the mercury salts and whatever else it was that doctors used to cure the after-effects of that. Let's also remember that penicillin, and the wide availability of effective antibiotics, was still a decade away.

    I.e. saying they're all soldiers doesn't make this an apples-to-apples comparison. If you subject today's soldiers to the exact same range of immunological stressors and pharmaceuticals, I would wager you'd see a few more drop dead from COVID or anything else. Conversely, if you took away the grueling horrors and drudgery associated with WWI, from shell-shock to trenchfoot, the veterans of WWI wouldn't have died of the Spanish flu in the same numbers.

  28. @Goorin
    Keep in mind steve, these are deaths above average, and the averages are not the same for all groups. Blacks generally die at twice the rates of whites, and asians half the rates of whites, while hispanics are midway between whites and asians (some ascribe the lower death rates among asians and hispanics to the healthy immigrant phenomenon, both that physically weak and sick people are less likely to immigrate, and that immigrants who are unsuccessful are both more likely to die young and return to their countries, leaving those who remain as healthier on average).

    So if you have covid killing an equal number of white/hispanic/asian/black people controlled for age, you'd expect the deaths above average to be lowest for blacks and highest for asians, than hispanics than whites. It could be the initial deaths for blacks was much higher.

    Replies: @ic1000, @JohnPlywood

    > Blacks generally die at twice the rates of whites, and asians half the rates of whites, while hispanics are midway between whites and asians

    This is incorrect (think for a moment about the implications for life expectancies if it were true).

  29. @Edomite male
    Looks like whites are weaker is correct. All you white guys on here do is bitch and complain and do nothing to change things. You are under a curse now. The end of the white male is upon you. Why do you think so much is anti white now? Black men are worshipped by white women, culture is black now, music, sports, all dominated by black men. Your sperm counts are falling, look it up... White males in Europe are attacked, beaten, humiliated in sweden by forced taking off clothes,licking black mens feet, letting themselves be robbed and not fighting back so they dnt get beat up. White males are now the most unwanted demographic in any business now. All major companies have pledged to majorly increase ppl of color in the ranks and good jobs. Those who enslave shall go into slavery saith the bible. It dsnt lie. The bible says gods ppl shall number as the stars. That sure isnt white ppl w declining sperm counts and falling population and being swamped by immigrants in white nations. You shall be made small among the heathens saith the bible. Those who enslave shall go into captivity. This isnt a fantasy of long ago. God's word never ceases. The sons shall hate theyre fathers for the lies they were told. Its all coming to pass but all you do is complain that all this anti white male hatred you know is upon you and you speak of it and wonder why. But you wont listen to truth. Esau, the so called white man, is the end of this world and Jacob is the beginning of the next. Saith the bible. Has the world ended yet? No... So you are the end of tgis world and Jacob who was born dark skinned is the beginning of the next world to follow. So many white males today are suicidal and drugged up, homeless, jobless, begging. Think youll rise again? 400 years is what the bible says and your time is up. I will carry my children by ships where they will be enslaved for 400 years, 1619-2019...and then i will carry you out of captivity and make you rulers. Read scriptures. All your answers are there

    Replies: @ic1000, @Ozymandias, @JohnPlywood

    > So you are the end of tgis world

    Insightful! But your comments will be even better if you learn to use “Preview” to correct grammar and spelling errors before pressing “Publish.”

    Many readers won’t know that Tgis (not tgis) is a remote village on the banks of the Dnov River. It features in Viking Cruise ads as an exotic destination that is, figuratively speaking, at “the end of the world.”

    Thanks for the vacation hints.

  30. @Harry Baldwin
    @Travis

    the first wave in the US hit areas where a lot of Blacks live, such as New York and New Jersey

    Yes, but in New. York and New Jersey it was the ultra-Orthodox and Hassidic Jews that were super-spreaders. Also, New York's governor Andrew Cuomo, revered by Democrats all, ordered nursing homes to take back COVID patients after they were released from the hospital. That decision may account for over 10,000 deaths. Still, the man's REVERED, I tell you! Those briefings he gives got him an Emmy!

    Replies: @James B. Shearer

    “… revered by Democrats all, ,,”

    Actually the more lefty Democrats don’t like Cuomo.

  31. @Ocesio
    Looks like whites are weak

    Is it any wonder that white girls are increasingly choosing Men of Color to father there children?

    Replies: @Ozymandias, @Rob Lee, @MEH 0910, @Adam Smith, @acementhead

    Looks like whites are weak
    Is it any wonder that white girls are increasingly choosing Men of Color to father there children?

    So your theory is that men of color are deliberately choosing weak mothers for their offspring? Sounds dysgenic. Does Leonard Pitts know about this?

  32. @Edomite male
    Looks like whites are weaker is correct. All you white guys on here do is bitch and complain and do nothing to change things. You are under a curse now. The end of the white male is upon you. Why do you think so much is anti white now? Black men are worshipped by white women, culture is black now, music, sports, all dominated by black men. Your sperm counts are falling, look it up... White males in Europe are attacked, beaten, humiliated in sweden by forced taking off clothes,licking black mens feet, letting themselves be robbed and not fighting back so they dnt get beat up. White males are now the most unwanted demographic in any business now. All major companies have pledged to majorly increase ppl of color in the ranks and good jobs. Those who enslave shall go into slavery saith the bible. It dsnt lie. The bible says gods ppl shall number as the stars. That sure isnt white ppl w declining sperm counts and falling population and being swamped by immigrants in white nations. You shall be made small among the heathens saith the bible. Those who enslave shall go into captivity. This isnt a fantasy of long ago. God's word never ceases. The sons shall hate theyre fathers for the lies they were told. Its all coming to pass but all you do is complain that all this anti white male hatred you know is upon you and you speak of it and wonder why. But you wont listen to truth. Esau, the so called white man, is the end of this world and Jacob is the beginning of the next. Saith the bible. Has the world ended yet? No... So you are the end of tgis world and Jacob who was born dark skinned is the beginning of the next world to follow. So many white males today are suicidal and drugged up, homeless, jobless, begging. Think youll rise again? 400 years is what the bible says and your time is up. I will carry my children by ships where they will be enslaved for 400 years, 1619-2019...and then i will carry you out of captivity and make you rulers. Read scriptures. All your answers are there

    Replies: @ic1000, @Ozymandias, @JohnPlywood

    The end of the white male is upon you.

    Pretty sure the end of the white female will coincide. You colored folk aren’t real big on the details of genetics, are you?

  33. Steve, two things. First, tribal health care can go from abysmal to pretty damn good depending on the community. The general health if tribal members can go from horrific to average American as well. And I guess more full-blooded, tribal members might be more vulnerable to money coronavirus.

    Second, why, why for the love of God do you allow Duck so many sock puppets? At this point, I’d be happy if you shut down anyone who pretended to be the Duck. Maybe I’m just autistic, but I find deliberate rule breaking to be offensive, I find those who allow it, no let’s be honest, encourage it to be morally reprehensible.

  34. @Ocesio
    Looks like whites are weak

    Is it any wonder that white girls are increasingly choosing Men of Color to father there children?

    Replies: @Ozymandias, @Rob Lee, @MEH 0910, @Adam Smith, @acementhead

    At the very least, Tiny Duck, I’m impressed by your ability to create scores of different accounts! You obviously work hard at being a troll. A question though: do you work equally hard in some other endeavor to contribute something of positive value to the society in which you live?

  35. anon[282] • Disclaimer says:

    This data actually seems to be confirming the much maligned and laughed at “Asians are more susceptible” stuff that was on this site back in March.

    Blacks– perhaps they aren’t physiologically more susceptible and their elevated rates in the beginning were due solely to social habits. They have undergone steady and drastic decline: they learned social distancing. Certainly had the most discretionary socializing to be discarded, particularly high risk stuff like talking and laughing loudly and singing.

    All that’s left is a bunch of Asia-derived groups who are all elevated. For Asians proper, elevated in spite of a good risk factor profile (e.g. education, wealth, obesity level). Each of these groups is elevated during the spikes, but also in the troughs. This makes their situation less likely to be the result of regionally concentrated spikes where they constitute a disproportionate proportion of population (i.e. NYC metro in April or Calif. in Dec-Jan).

  36. @AnotherDad

    I wonder what explains these patterns.
     
    Blacks front loaded their cases via their lesser ability/desire to follow direction.

    The rest looks pretty much per spec. Hispanics continue to run hotter than whites. More crowded and more multi-generational households.

    Replies: @Art Deco, @Chrisnonymous

    Blacks front loaded their cases via their lesser ability/desire to follow direction.

    Or they front loaded their cases because they were more likely to work in jobs where you breathe the same air as random strangers: nursing assistants, home health aides, bus drivers, barbers, cab drivers, sky caps and then spread more rapidly because blacks aspirate more in ordinary conversation.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Art Deco

    Lots of blacks work at airports, which was bad back in March when world travelers like Tom Hanks and ski vacationers were big conduits.

  37. @Templar
    Over at Lion of the Blogosphere an interesting comment:
    As an illustration of the death rate in a young, healthy, fit population, as of January 4 there had been 110,018 confirmed cases in the US military, and 14 deaths. Yes, fourteen, I didn’t omit any zeroes. That’s 0.0127%.
    https://www.airforcemag.com/snapshot-dod-and-covid-19/
    The US has 2 million people in its various prison systems, how many confirmed cases amongst prisoners and how many deaths?

    Replies: @utu, @prosa123

    Over at Lion of the Blogosphere an interesting comment:
    As an illustration of the death rate in a young, healthy, fit population, as of January 4 there had been 110,018 confirmed cases in the US military, and 14 deaths. Yes, fourteen, I didn’t omit any zeroes. That’s 0.0127%.
    https://www.airforcemag.com/snapshot-dod-and-covid-19/
    The US has 2 million people in its various prison systems, how many confirmed cases amongst prisoners and how many deaths?

    That was my comment.
    As for prisons, the most recent information I can find is about six weeks old, and not especially precise. It says that there have been 275,000 cases among state and federal prisoners in the US and 1,700 deaths, which would yield a death rate around 0.62%. Prison inmates are mainly a young population with some exceptions. I would imagine that a substantial percentage are in less than ideal physical condition, with the effects of drug and alcohol use, and just plain hard living.
    https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/prisoners-us-covid-19-1700-died-74797059

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @prosa123

    Prisoners also probably have poor nutritional status, poor sleep, and high stress lifestyles, all bad for the immune system.


    As an illustration of the death rate in a young, healthy, fit population, as of January 4 there had been 110,018 confirmed cases in the US military, and 14 deaths. Yes, fourteen, I didn’t omit any zeroes. That’s 0.0127%.
    https://www.airforcemag.com/snapshot-dod-and-covid-19/
     
    Good reason to manage your health and fitness.
  38. @Edomite male
    Looks like whites are weaker is correct. All you white guys on here do is bitch and complain and do nothing to change things. You are under a curse now. The end of the white male is upon you. Why do you think so much is anti white now? Black men are worshipped by white women, culture is black now, music, sports, all dominated by black men. Your sperm counts are falling, look it up... White males in Europe are attacked, beaten, humiliated in sweden by forced taking off clothes,licking black mens feet, letting themselves be robbed and not fighting back so they dnt get beat up. White males are now the most unwanted demographic in any business now. All major companies have pledged to majorly increase ppl of color in the ranks and good jobs. Those who enslave shall go into slavery saith the bible. It dsnt lie. The bible says gods ppl shall number as the stars. That sure isnt white ppl w declining sperm counts and falling population and being swamped by immigrants in white nations. You shall be made small among the heathens saith the bible. Those who enslave shall go into captivity. This isnt a fantasy of long ago. God's word never ceases. The sons shall hate theyre fathers for the lies they were told. Its all coming to pass but all you do is complain that all this anti white male hatred you know is upon you and you speak of it and wonder why. But you wont listen to truth. Esau, the so called white man, is the end of this world and Jacob is the beginning of the next. Saith the bible. Has the world ended yet? No... So you are the end of tgis world and Jacob who was born dark skinned is the beginning of the next world to follow. So many white males today are suicidal and drugged up, homeless, jobless, begging. Think youll rise again? 400 years is what the bible says and your time is up. I will carry my children by ships where they will be enslaved for 400 years, 1619-2019...and then i will carry you out of captivity and make you rulers. Read scriptures. All your answers are there

    Replies: @ic1000, @Ozymandias, @JohnPlywood

    Wishful thinking!

  39. @Goorin
    Keep in mind steve, these are deaths above average, and the averages are not the same for all groups. Blacks generally die at twice the rates of whites, and asians half the rates of whites, while hispanics are midway between whites and asians (some ascribe the lower death rates among asians and hispanics to the healthy immigrant phenomenon, both that physically weak and sick people are less likely to immigrate, and that immigrants who are unsuccessful are both more likely to die young and return to their countries, leaving those who remain as healthier on average).

    So if you have covid killing an equal number of white/hispanic/asian/black people controlled for age, you'd expect the deaths above average to be lowest for blacks and highest for asians, than hispanics than whites. It could be the initial deaths for blacks was much higher.

    Replies: @ic1000, @JohnPlywood

    ??

    Hispanics aren’t doing better than whites. There should not even be any talk of Hispanics since their average age is like 13 in the USA. Old Hispanics are an extremely low percentage of the population.

    Whites are the oldest demographic group in America and therefore have way more at-risk seniors. White people are killing you blacks, Hispanics, Asians and Natives in Covid survivability.

  40. I wonder what explains these patterns.

    Why are we focusing on race? Race matters now?

  41. @Templar
    @utu

    https://www.army.mil/article/210420/worldwide_flu_outbreak_killed_45000_american_soldiers_during_world_war_i
    The Spanish flu killed 45,000 US soldiers back in 1918/9

    Replies: @HA

    “The Spanish flu killed 45,000 US soldiers back in 1918/9”

    Yes, but don’t forget that many of these 45,000 soldiers had spent the last couple of years pickling their feet in muck-filled trenches, huffing high-tar army-grade tobacco and sipping all kinds of questionable hooch, and consorting with various cultural flavors of prostitutes — and dealing with the mercury salts and whatever else it was that doctors used to cure the after-effects of that. Let’s also remember that penicillin, and the wide availability of effective antibiotics, was still a decade away.

    I.e. saying they’re all soldiers doesn’t make this an apples-to-apples comparison. If you subject today’s soldiers to the exact same range of immunological stressors and pharmaceuticals, I would wager you’d see a few more drop dead from COVID or anything else. Conversely, if you took away the grueling horrors and drudgery associated with WWI, from shell-shock to trenchfoot, the veterans of WWI wouldn’t have died of the Spanish flu in the same numbers.

  42. @AnotherDad

    I wonder what explains these patterns.
     
    Blacks front loaded their cases via their lesser ability/desire to follow direction.

    The rest looks pretty much per spec. Hispanics continue to run hotter than whites. More crowded and more multi-generational households.

    Replies: @Art Deco, @Chrisnonymous

    Blacks front loaded their cases

    That would be a kind of qualified herd immunity, but the black population of the US is about twice as large as the Asian one, so why don’t we see the same effect there?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Chrisnonymous

    In California, the case percentage for Hispanics is about double that of blacks, but, at least through early January, their Latinos' infections kept going up up up.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous

  43. @prosa123
    @Templar

    Over at Lion of the Blogosphere an interesting comment:
    As an illustration of the death rate in a young, healthy, fit population, as of January 4 there had been 110,018 confirmed cases in the US military, and 14 deaths. Yes, fourteen, I didn’t omit any zeroes. That’s 0.0127%.
    https://www.airforcemag.com/snapshot-dod-and-covid-19/
    The US has 2 million people in its various prison systems, how many confirmed cases amongst prisoners and how many deaths?

    That was my comment.
    As for prisons, the most recent information I can find is about six weeks old, and not especially precise. It says that there have been 275,000 cases among state and federal prisoners in the US and 1,700 deaths, which would yield a death rate around 0.62%. Prison inmates are mainly a young population with some exceptions. I would imagine that a substantial percentage are in less than ideal physical condition, with the effects of drug and alcohol use, and just plain hard living.
    https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/prisoners-us-covid-19-1700-died-74797059

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous

    Prisoners also probably have poor nutritional status, poor sleep, and high stress lifestyles, all bad for the immune system.

    As an illustration of the death rate in a young, healthy, fit population, as of January 4 there had been 110,018 confirmed cases in the US military, and 14 deaths. Yes, fourteen, I didn’t omit any zeroes. That’s 0.0127%.
    https://www.airforcemag.com/snapshot-dod-and-covid-19/

    Good reason to manage your health and fitness.

  44. @Chrisnonymous
    @AnotherDad


    Blacks front loaded their cases
     
    That would be a kind of qualified herd immunity, but the black population of the US is about twice as large as the Asian one, so why don't we see the same effect there?

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    In California, the case percentage for Hispanics is about double that of blacks, but, at least through early January, their Latinos’ infections kept going up up up.

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @Steve Sailer

    But aren't there, like, five times as many Hispanics in CA as blacks?

    Maybe blacks can achieve some measure of herd immunity due to being more isolated? If Asians are pretty well mixed in among whites geographically and socially, then they shouldn't act as a separate demographic for heed immunity purposes.

  45. @Art Deco
    @AnotherDad

    Blacks front loaded their cases via their lesser ability/desire to follow direction.

    Or they front loaded their cases because they were more likely to work in jobs where you breathe the same air as random strangers: nursing assistants, home health aides, bus drivers, barbers, cab drivers, sky caps and then spread more rapidly because blacks aspirate more in ordinary conversation.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    Lots of blacks work at airports, which was bad back in March when world travelers like Tom Hanks and ski vacationers were big conduits.

  46. @Steve Sailer
    @Chrisnonymous

    In California, the case percentage for Hispanics is about double that of blacks, but, at least through early January, their Latinos' infections kept going up up up.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous

    But aren’t there, like, five times as many Hispanics in CA as blacks?

    Maybe blacks can achieve some measure of herd immunity due to being more isolated? If Asians are pretty well mixed in among whites geographically and socially, then they shouldn’t act as a separate demographic for heed immunity purposes.

  47. @Ocesio
    Looks like whites are weak

    Is it any wonder that white girls are increasingly choosing Men of Color to father there children?

    Replies: @Ozymandias, @Rob Lee, @MEH 0910, @Adam Smith, @acementhead

  48. @Ocesio
    Looks like whites are weak

    Is it any wonder that white girls are increasingly choosing Men of Color to father there children?

    Replies: @Ozymandias, @Rob Lee, @MEH 0910, @Adam Smith, @acementhead

    ALL PEOPLE OF COLOUR AGREEE

    Hat tells you somthing right their

    Reed Adam Serwer you canot refute his twitter

    • Replies: @acementhead
    @Adam Smith


    "Hat tells you somthing right their

    Reed..."
     
    Not bad, not bad*. Four errors in seven words. Keep fathering those children.


    One of my favourite people of all time was Walter Williams, now, very sadly, recently deceased.





    *With apologies to Ratso.
  49. Of the three Whites I know who got Covid, they got it recently, and I believe they got it after returning to work.

  50. @Ocesio
    Looks like whites are weak

    Is it any wonder that white girls are increasingly choosing Men of Color to father there children?

    Replies: @Ozymandias, @Rob Lee, @MEH 0910, @Adam Smith, @acementhead

    “… choosing Men of Color to father there children?”

    Are we Black?*

    *With apologies to Gene.

  51. @Adam Smith
    @Ocesio

    ALL PEOPLE OF COLOUR AGREEE

    Hat tells you somthing right their

    Reed Adam Serwer you canot refute his twitter

    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/dd/60/0d/dd600d8aa28b3889bd4ac28f89a507b8.jpg

    Replies: @acementhead

    “Hat tells you somthing right their

    Reed…”

    Not bad, not bad*. Four errors in seven words. Keep fathering those children.

    One of my favourite people of all time was Walter Williams, now, very sadly, recently deceased.

    *With apologies to Ratso.

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