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Chinese Researchers: Strong and Short Stay-At-Home Policy Is Cheaper Than Loose and Long
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Here is a new abstract from SSRN:

When is the COVID-19 Pandemic Over? Evidence from the Stay-at-home Policy Execution in 106 Chinese Cities
17 Pages Posted: 27 Mar 2020
Jingyuan Wang
Beihang University (BUAA)

Ke Tang
Institute of Economics, School of Social Sciences, Tsinghua University

Kai Feng
Beihang University (BUAA)

Weifeng Lv
Beihang University

Date Written: March 26, 2020

Abstract
As more and more countries have employed stay-at-home policy to halt the spread of COVID-19, the effectiveness of this policy has become an important question to both researchers and policymakers. To answer this question, our paper empirically measures the effect of stay-at-home policy on the control of COVID-19. Using the city-level Baidu Mobility Index, measured by the total number of outside travels per day divided by the resident population, we find that reducing the number of outings can effectively decrease the new-onset cases; a 1% decline in the outing number will reduce about 1% of the new-onset-cases growth rate in 7 days (one serial interval). The critical level is a 50% drop in mobility, in which case the number of new-onset cases is lower than it was 7 days before, and hence the epidemic will gradually disappear holding this policy long enough. A strong stay-at-home policy execution with a short duration has a smaller economic cost than a loose execution with a long duration. For example, the mobility in Wuhan is down 85% after lockdown, in which case we estimate the number of new-onset cases is reduced by 50% in only 12 days.

Unfortunately, I can’t find the full paper online. So who really knows?

 
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  1. • Replies: @anonguy
    Marc Lipsitch has been redpilled and accurate from very early on, he's a good source and one of the best Americans/Westerners.

    Follow Scott Gottlieb, he's another very good American source/opinion on virus stuff.

  2. To the “B-b-but the economy!” and “Turn the machines back on!” criers: Look, the ‘economy’ is gonna be fucked for awhile. People will suffer no matter what. That’s just how it is. We need to wait to see what we got.

    For now, as best we can, heed the dirge of Corona-chan:

    “Keep The Streets Empty For Me”

    Reminder to the flocks of the blithe and stubbornly skeptical:

    Wolves exist, including Big Bad Ones that can suddenly, catastrophically, end many, many, human lives.

    • Replies: @Thomas

    To the “B-b-but the economy!” and “Turn the machines back on!” criers: Look, the ‘economy’ is gonna be fucked for awhile. People will suffer no matter what. That’s just how it is. We need to wait to see what we got.
     
    Salience bias. Everyone who is an adult now remembers the 2008 recession, and assumes that the next economic downturn will be the same, no matter how different the circumstances or causes.

    Almost nobody alive remembers a truly destructive global pandemic, despite the fact that we're all watching one happen right now in real time.
    , @The Wild Geese Howard

    For now, as best we can, heed the dirge of Corona-chan:

    “Keep The Streets Empty For Me”
     
    That track is far too positive for the mass hysteria/psychosis/mental breakdown we are witnessing:

    Controlled Bleeding - Words of the Dying

    https://youtu.be/NwhnrG7WyhE
    , @Redneck farmer
    The economy is........ well, it depends. How accurate are Chinese numbers? How long can media maintain a critical mass of people believing this is Black Death 2.0? Do the economic rescue packages help enough?
    More importantly, do people accept the fact that we're going to have a lot more diseases like this in the future? And keeping alive the sickest 0.1% maybe isn't a good thing now that it's 1. More expensive than ever, 2. Might have even less of a success rate in the future?
    , @Che Blutarsky
    I have a feeling if we shut the entire economy down, and your utilities were shut off, you'd feel differently.

    What, you have no compassion for the power company workers, the food production workers, the farmers, the truckers, the grocery store workers? Shut that all down for a month and no one would be left to worry about a virus.
    , @Whiskey
    Just about the dumbest comment I've ever seen here on Unz. But I understand it -- women don't think, only feelz.

    You cannot shut down the economy for even two weeks without massive unemployment. Without massive WHITE unemployment. For much longer and you are looking at 30% unemployment which is larger than the Great Depression. More like the 1873 Depression that lasted 23 years.

    Are you prepared for the social, violent consequences for that level of unemployment for more than twenty years? There is no open frontier, and Whites are now a defacto and discriminated against minority in their own country. Its not 1933, we cannot tolerate that type of wide/deep/permanent recession. The economy is not a car motor that can be turned off and on.

    Discrimination against Whites particularly Straight White men is now the law of the land thanks to Civil Rights. That has been papered over by cheap credit, bail outs, a consumer economy, and various distractions all of which cost money and are not available in a Depression. Much less one that lasts decades.

    Are you prepared for daily bombings of freeways, streets, buildings, etc.? A Tim McVeigh every day? Or Unabomber? How about daily assassinations, and political killings? Roving bands of vibrants ala the Rodney King Riots, and counter-militias of Koreans, Whites, etc. as in the King Riots?

    America is no longer a country. It is an extended stay hotel with welfare benefits for non-Whites and gays/lesbians. It is held together, barely, by money through employment enabling social isolation. Take that away and you get Civil War that makes Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq look like a Kindergarten slap fight.
  3. I was able to download the 17 page paper (with graphs) from the SSRN site you note. Saved it as a PDF.

    • Replies: @Romanian
    Me too. The download button was just below.
  4. I do not know what to make of this. It could be disinformation, it could be straight, it could be a deep game.

    Question: how many funeral urns have actually been delivered to Wuhan recently?

    http://shanghaiist.com/2020/03/27/urns-in-wuhan-far-exceed-death-toll-raising-more-questions-about-chinas-tally/

    • Replies: @Mr Mox
    The article is nonsens. With 19 million people living in Wuhan you're going to need a lot of urns on a daily basis, virus or not. We might as well calculate the number of diarrhea cases from the sale of toilet paper.
    , @Achmed E. Newman
    I've been told the same thing from my Chinese source, #681. Chinese people do not believe the numbers out of their government. (Who does?) I was just going to write a comment about this, but yours will suffice till I get to see something I can trust on this.

    I don't think any kind of models of the Kung Flu in Chinese locations really apply very well to most of America. We are much more spread out here, that being a good thing in a lot of ways, but also with this virus around. The Chinese people lived packed together and seem to like it that way.
    , @Lurker
    Perhaps urn profiteers are merely trying to cash in?

    Urn leggers.

  5. OT: Bernie office in FL vandalized with dyslexic swastikas and the tagline “voting didn’t stop us last time.” (Cuz Trump’s a Nazi, geddit?)

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    That's not a dyslectic swastika, it's a stick-figure ho' doin' her stuff.
  6. There is a pdf link at the top of your link.

    Possibly you need to clear cookies or something if SSRN is metered and you cannot see it.

    It seems like a high quality paper in terms of measuring lockdown level relative to new case rate.

    On the economic questions it isn’t, the assumption that each percentage decrease in outings has the same effect on the economy is obviously and very wrong.

    Still helpful though, but they need an econometrician’s help for their next draft.

    • Replies: @vhrm
    yeah,
    "The economic loss of 1% mobility drop is assumed to be 1 for simplicity."

    So if i understand they're just saying that the if you reduce mobility by a certain amount and hold it there until you have no more cases, your total lost mobility (and thus economic loss) will be lowest for the highest reduction in mobility (because it ends a lot faster).

    So no real analysis on the difference between reducing a restaurant's traffic by 25% for 4 months vs 100% for one month or anything like that.
  7. @snorlax
    OT: Bernie office in FL vandalized with dyslexic swastikas and the tagline "voting didn't stop us last time." (Cuz Trump's a Nazi, geddit?)

    https://twitter.com/FL4Bernie2020/status/1244031346131054592

    That’s not a dyslectic swastika, it’s a stick-figure ho’ doin’ her stuff.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    No, it's one of those haters alright, but he's got a dyslectic heart:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVhBEtTSEcE

    "Nah, nah, nah, nah...
    nah-na, nah-na, nah-na...
    oh, oh, oh ...
  8. Jingyuan Wang

    Intercourse is fraught with risk at the moment. Please stay home and Jingyuan Wang.

    Beihang University

    How dey be hung in Beihang?

    (BUAA)

  9. communist dictatorship better than a republic at forcing citizens to do what the leadership wants. news at 11.

    looks to me like Democrat governors are budding communist dictators in the making. i bet these guys have erections 24/7 right now. power beyond anything they ever dreamed of. they get to tell you whether your business is essential or not. in some states, they even made it illegal to go FISHING during the ‘crisis’. they can’t believe their luck. close firearms stores, let criminals out of prison, shut down horrendous capitalist dogs and their for profit businesses. tell you where you can and can’t go.

    Cuomo will quarantine NYC if he wants to. he’s just claiming the right to do it himself, and won’t allow the President to do for him. if anybody is gonna quarantine things around here, it’s gonna be me!

    • Agree: BB753, Achmed E. Newman
    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    It is interesting, if not convenient, that the steps necessary to combat COVID-19 just happen to be everything that is on the neo-liberal globalist wish list: mass surveilance, cashless society, crushing small business, an isolated and atomized citizenry that is encouraged to stay inside and watch Netflix.
  10. China’s experience differs from us in two crucial ways:

    1) their blue collar workforce is largely migrant, and once folks go home for CNY and stay a while, it’s harder to lure them back to work

    2) work from home basically doesn’t exist in China. many white collar jobs that NYers are now doing remotely are just paused because in China not every employee is issued a laptop and zoom account

    The first observation would suggest that we can bounce back faster. The second would suggest our economic trough would be more shallow, which also means our rebound will be less extreme.

    • Replies: @ThreeCranes
    Thanks for being that someone who speaks about how an economic downturn is followed by a surge and is not the end of the world. As we all know, it was the pent-up demand due to WW2 rationing and switch to production of war materiel that primed the pump for the 50’s—60’s boom.

    We will recover and life will go on. There will be money to help businesses that faltered.

    All in due time.

  11. @anon
    I do not know what to make of this. It could be disinformation, it could be straight, it could be a deep game.

    Question: how many funeral urns have actually been delivered to Wuhan recently?

    http://shanghaiist.com/2020/03/27/urns-in-wuhan-far-exceed-death-toll-raising-more-questions-about-chinas-tally/

    The article is nonsens. With 19 million people living in Wuhan you’re going to need a lot of urns on a daily basis, virus or not. We might as well calculate the number of diarrhea cases from the sale of toilet paper.

  12. @Jenner Ickham Errican
    To the “B-b-but the economy!” and “Turn the machines back on!” criers: Look, the ‘economy’ is gonna be fucked for awhile. People will suffer no matter what. That’s just how it is. We need to wait to see what we got.

    For now, as best we can, heed the dirge of Corona-chan:

    “Keep The Streets Empty For Me”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWFb5z3kUSQ

    Reminder to the flocks of the blithe and stubbornly skeptical:

    Wolves exist, including Big Bad Ones that can suddenly, catastrophically, end many, many, human lives.

    https://cdna.artstation.com/p/assets/images/images/011/123/960/4k/jakub-rozalski-wilk-syty-owca-calas.jpg

    To the “B-b-but the economy!” and “Turn the machines back on!” criers: Look, the ‘economy’ is gonna be fucked for awhile. People will suffer no matter what. That’s just how it is. We need to wait to see what we got.

    Salience bias. Everyone who is an adult now remembers the 2008 recession, and assumes that the next economic downturn will be the same, no matter how different the circumstances or causes.

    Almost nobody alive remembers a truly destructive global pandemic, despite the fact that we’re all watching one happen right now in real time.

  13. @Jenner Ickham Errican
    To the “B-b-but the economy!” and “Turn the machines back on!” criers: Look, the ‘economy’ is gonna be fucked for awhile. People will suffer no matter what. That’s just how it is. We need to wait to see what we got.

    For now, as best we can, heed the dirge of Corona-chan:

    “Keep The Streets Empty For Me”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWFb5z3kUSQ

    Reminder to the flocks of the blithe and stubbornly skeptical:

    Wolves exist, including Big Bad Ones that can suddenly, catastrophically, end many, many, human lives.

    https://cdna.artstation.com/p/assets/images/images/011/123/960/4k/jakub-rozalski-wilk-syty-owca-calas.jpg

    For now, as best we can, heed the dirge of Corona-chan:

    “Keep The Streets Empty For Me”

    That track is far too positive for the mass hysteria/psychosis/mental breakdown we are witnessing:

    Controlled Bleeding – Words of the Dying

    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican

    That track is far too positive for the mass hysteria/psychosis/mental breakdown we are witnessing
     
    That track is merely good advice from the virus herself.

    There is no mass hysteria/psychosis/mental breakdown yet in the United States. Right now things are mostly calm, if guarded.
  14. Anon[318] • Disclaimer says:

    I’ve been pondering the history of flu pandemics and the history of tobacco use. It turns out there is a interesting parallel between between a particular method of tobacco use and flu pandemics. Flu outbreaks are essentially a 20th-century phenomenon. I still remember being surprised when I read a physician’s memoir from the 1800s in which he states he had never seen a case of the flu until the Russian flu pandemic of 1889, and no doctor he knew had ever seen one until then, either.

    There was a profound change in tobacco habits that began to take place in the late 1800s which picked up a lot of momentum in the early 1900s. In the 1800s, the majority of people who imbibed tobacco CHEWED it. Yes, there were pipe smokers, but there there way, way more chewers in proportion. Chewing was a insanely common habit. I was bemused, many years ago, to listen to my grandmother and her female friends discussing how all the women in their mother’s and grandmother’s generations chewed tobacco. But then there came a wave of social change, and being a chewer was no longer respectable. It was labelled dirty and disgusting because of the habit of spitting tobacco juice, and spittoons began to vanish from public places.

    But the most important thing here is, CHEWING LEAVES YOUR LUNGS ALONE.

    So what took the place of chewing? Cigarette smoking. Rolling machines were invented in the 1800s that created a cheap, mass-produced cylinder that began to take off in popularity. Let me quote Wiki here: “Production climbed markedly when another cigarette-making machine was developed in the 1880s by James Albert Bonsack, which vastly increased the productivity of cigarette companies, which went from making about 40,000 hand-rolled cigarettes daily to around 4 million.”

    In other words, a bunch of chewers, shamed into giving up their quid, were looking around for a cheap and less socially disgraceful way to imbibe tobacco just as cigarette use really began to take off. In fact, sales of cigarettes were probably driven by those trying to find an alternative that was more socially acceptable.

    But oddly enough, this vast expansion in cigarette use coincided with the first great flu pandemic, the Russian flu outbreak of 1889.

    In 1918, you had a wave of young men off the farm being mobilized for war. Many of them showed up at boot camp away from the parental eye for the first time, and many of them were introduced to the cigarette smoking habit there. Let me quote Wiki again here about tobacco marketing: “Free or subsidized branded cigarettes were distributed to troops during World War I. Demand for cigarettes in North America, which had been roughly doubling every five years, began to rise even faster, now approximately tripling during the four years of war.”

    So, an awful lot of young men suddenly started damaging their lungs right before the 1918 flu pandemic hit. That’s very interesting.

    As Louis Pasteur said: “It’s not the germ. It’s the terrain.”

    We’ve had flu with us ever since. But you know what? SMOKERS ARE VIRAL INCUBATORS THAT ENDANGER NONSMOKERS.

    Smokers have more trouble recovering from respiratory illnesses than nonsmokers do. They get sick more often, and they take longer to recover. Because of this, smokers develop a heavier viral load than a normal person would. When a healthy, normal person comes in contact with a smoker carrying a massive viral load, that healthy person can acquire part of that massive load and became very ill. A healthy person could easily fight off the occasional stray respiratory virus found in nature. The human immune system copes with that quite easily. But if you put healthy people around a lot of very sick people with huge viral loads, even the healthy people will become sick.

    Basically, when you have a respiratory pandemic that breaks out, it’s because all the smokers in the population are being used by the virus as walking incubators that dramatically boosts the virus’ reproduction and range of spread.

    Smokers really do a heck of a lot of damage to nonsmokers, as well as to themselves.

    • Agree: Jonathan Mason
    • Troll: Futurethirdworlder
    • Replies: @ThreeCranes
    Um, that’s a pretty cool argument. As a former smoker, I’ll attest to the truth of what you say about susceptibility and viral load.

    There is nothing more insane than deliberately inhaling burning leaves directly into your lungs.

    , @Joe Stalin
    And with the advent of the "vast expansion in cigarette" came the invention of the matchbook.

    And matchbook advertising.

    "By the 1920s, the matchbook was the most popular advertising format in North America."

    https://www.cbc.ca/radio/undertheinfluence/striking-images-matchbook-advertising-1.2801847
    , @Stebbing Heuer
    Interesting, thankyou.
  15. @Jenner Ickham Errican
    To the “B-b-but the economy!” and “Turn the machines back on!” criers: Look, the ‘economy’ is gonna be fucked for awhile. People will suffer no matter what. That’s just how it is. We need to wait to see what we got.

    For now, as best we can, heed the dirge of Corona-chan:

    “Keep The Streets Empty For Me”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWFb5z3kUSQ

    Reminder to the flocks of the blithe and stubbornly skeptical:

    Wolves exist, including Big Bad Ones that can suddenly, catastrophically, end many, many, human lives.

    https://cdna.artstation.com/p/assets/images/images/011/123/960/4k/jakub-rozalski-wilk-syty-owca-calas.jpg

    The economy is…….. well, it depends. How accurate are Chinese numbers? How long can media maintain a critical mass of people believing this is Black Death 2.0? Do the economic rescue packages help enough?
    More importantly, do people accept the fact that we’re going to have a lot more diseases like this in the future? And keeping alive the sickest 0.1% maybe isn’t a good thing now that it’s 1. More expensive than ever, 2. Might have even less of a success rate in the future?

    • Agree: bomag
  16. This paper reminds me why I left the social “sciences”. From the abstract: “The critical level is a 50% drop in mobility, in which case the number of new-onset cases is lower than it was 7 days before.” There’s something obviously wrong with the dimensions here! So you start at one mobility level, halve it, and then new onset cases in 7 days will be the same as today. Well what happens in 7 days? Do you have to halve the mobility rate *again*, to stay at that same onset rate? And how about the next week, etc.? Mobility has to go to zero. That seems wrong.

    Perusing the paper for a few minutes, their model specification is growth rate as a linear function of mobility index. A 1 point drop in mobility index leads to 18% drop in 7-day growth rate. So that 50% bullshit only applies to the *Wuhan* case, which started at mobility index 5 and 7-day growth rate for covid of 50%. So to reduce Wuhan’s growth rate to 0%, you need to reduce the mobility index by 2.5 — 50% of its original value of 5.

    And what’s up with the BMI (baidu mobility index) going down to exactly 1? Like exactly, exactly, exactly 1? The idea that it’s “number of daily external visits divided by resident population” — there’s no reason it would converge to exactly 1. Methinks your interpretation of the Baidu index is wrong.

    People looking for deep state explanations or disinformation or whatever: these are just a bunch of Chinese academics trying to crank out a shitty paper from all of this. They scraped Baidu and ran a silly regression and it took at most a day or so.

    I suspect their results are meaningless, other than reinforcing common sense — less mobility means less disease spread — but there’s so little data here that there’s no way to know, one way or another.

    Linear regression masturbation, posing as insightful.

    • Replies: @vhrm

    And what’s up with the BMI (baidu mobility index) going down to exactly 1? Like exactly, exactly, exactly 1? The idea that it’s “number of daily external visits divided by resident population” — there’s no reason it would converge to exactly 1. Methinks your interpretation of the Baidu index is wrong.
     
    I think you're being too hard on them on this point.
    In the text they say in Wuhan it was reduced to 0.7

    Figure 2 shows the national case weighted average is close to 1 but not exactly 1. The map in Figure 1 shows a lot of variation between cities as they say. So i'm willing to believe that the case weighted average just turned out that way vs these guys massaging it in some effort to say "oh look, good Chinese people followed the rules" or something like that.

    Anyway, while it's interesting to see, i think a trip to the movies vs a trip walking by yourself are hardly going to have the same underlying impact, but... certainly looks like "shutdown" has a dose dependent effect.

  17. Stay at home executions in China? How convenient.

  18. @Lot
    There is a pdf link at the top of your link.

    Possibly you need to clear cookies or something if SSRN is metered and you cannot see it.

    It seems like a high quality paper in terms of measuring lockdown level relative to new case rate.

    On the economic questions it isn’t, the assumption that each percentage decrease in outings has the same effect on the economy is obviously and very wrong.

    Still helpful though, but they need an econometrician’s help for their next draft.

    yeah,
    “The economic loss of 1% mobility drop is assumed to be 1 for simplicity.”

    So if i understand they’re just saying that the if you reduce mobility by a certain amount and hold it there until you have no more cases, your total lost mobility (and thus economic loss) will be lowest for the highest reduction in mobility (because it ends a lot faster).

    So no real analysis on the difference between reducing a restaurant’s traffic by 25% for 4 months vs 100% for one month or anything like that.

  19. @BayAreaBill
    This paper reminds me why I left the social "sciences". From the abstract: "The critical level is a 50% drop in mobility, in which case the number of new-onset cases is lower than it was 7 days before." There's something obviously wrong with the dimensions here! So you start at one mobility level, halve it, and then new onset cases in 7 days will be the same as today. Well what happens in 7 days? Do you have to halve the mobility rate *again*, to stay at that same onset rate? And how about the next week, etc.? Mobility has to go to zero. That seems wrong.

    Perusing the paper for a few minutes, their model specification is growth rate as a linear function of mobility index. A 1 point drop in mobility index leads to 18% drop in 7-day growth rate. So that 50% bullshit only applies to the *Wuhan* case, which started at mobility index 5 and 7-day growth rate for covid of 50%. So to reduce Wuhan's growth rate to 0%, you need to reduce the mobility index by 2.5 -- 50% of its original value of 5.

    And what's up with the BMI (baidu mobility index) going down to exactly 1? Like exactly, exactly, exactly 1? The idea that it's "number of daily external visits divided by resident population" -- there's no reason it would converge to exactly 1. Methinks your interpretation of the Baidu index is wrong.

    People looking for deep state explanations or disinformation or whatever: these are just a bunch of Chinese academics trying to crank out a shitty paper from all of this. They scraped Baidu and ran a silly regression and it took at most a day or so.

    I suspect their results are meaningless, other than reinforcing common sense -- less mobility means less disease spread -- but there's so little data here that there's no way to know, one way or another.

    Linear regression masturbation, posing as insightful.

    And what’s up with the BMI (baidu mobility index) going down to exactly 1? Like exactly, exactly, exactly 1? The idea that it’s “number of daily external visits divided by resident population” — there’s no reason it would converge to exactly 1. Methinks your interpretation of the Baidu index is wrong.

    I think you’re being too hard on them on this point.
    In the text they say in Wuhan it was reduced to 0.7

    Figure 2 shows the national case weighted average is close to 1 but not exactly 1. The map in Figure 1 shows a lot of variation between cities as they say. So i’m willing to believe that the case weighted average just turned out that way vs these guys massaging it in some effort to say “oh look, good Chinese people followed the rules” or something like that.

    Anyway, while it’s interesting to see, i think a trip to the movies vs a trip walking by yourself are hardly going to have the same underlying impact, but… certainly looks like “shutdown” has a dose dependent effect.

  20. Anon[336] • Disclaimer says:

    Well, if the disease takes two weeks to clear up and become non-contagious, then putting everyone in an individual hermetically sealed plexiglas cylinder with I.V. nutrition for two weeks, along with water-tight border controls, would completely eliminate the disease (although some cylinders will contain corpses).

    If you do it with family units rather than individuals, you need to expect that some members will infect other members during the lockdown, so add a week or three.

    But leakiness is inevitable. The cops, the health workers, going out to buy “essential supplies” and getting infected on the last day of lockdown. Forcing people to live off of mass-produced delivered MREs would eliminate that.

    The French lock-down was clever: There are two online forms you have to fill in and physically have with you to show to cops. I looked at them and I think they could be improved. On YouTube you see that the cops don’t touch the forms and keep their distance, so the forms should print out large type or symbols readable from a distance. The cops could see that you are out for dog walking, you left your apartment (or at least printed the sheet) 20 minutes previously, you live in such and such a neighborhood (to enforce a 500 yards limit or whatever), and if they had an online system to track your activities, that you last walked your dog the previous day. People who “don’t have online access” (the same chaps who “don’t have ID for voting”?) could just be instructed to write something on paper before they leave the house. The sanction for not having your papers could be a stiff fine for whites and Asians, and restorative justice for URMs.

    Razib Khan last week (before Trump thought of it) said that interstate or even “more granular” movement restrictions are really necessary in a place the size of the U.S., so localities could be allowed to recover at different paces.

    • Replies: @Lurker

    putting everyone in an individual hermetically sealed plexiglas cylinder with I.V. nutrition for two weeks, along with water-tight border controls, would completely eliminate the disease (although some cylinders will contain corpses).
     
    I've mused on that before myself. If we could do that globally then many common communicable diseases would be genocided.
  21. @CCZ
    I was able to download the 17 page paper (with graphs) from the SSRN site you note. Saved it as a PDF.

    Me too. The download button was just below.

  22. @anon
    I do not know what to make of this. It could be disinformation, it could be straight, it could be a deep game.

    Question: how many funeral urns have actually been delivered to Wuhan recently?

    http://shanghaiist.com/2020/03/27/urns-in-wuhan-far-exceed-death-toll-raising-more-questions-about-chinas-tally/

    I’ve been told the same thing from my Chinese source, #681. Chinese people do not believe the numbers out of their government. (Who does?) I was just going to write a comment about this, but yours will suffice till I get to see something I can trust on this.

    I don’t think any kind of models of the Kung Flu in Chinese locations really apply very well to most of America. We are much more spread out here, that being a good thing in a lot of ways, but also with this virus around. The Chinese people lived packed together and seem to like it that way.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Isn't 8 a lucky number in Chinese? It's suspicious that when the number of cases in China reached 80,000 the government promptly declared the epidemic over.
  23. @Reg Cæsar
    That's not a dyslectic swastika, it's a stick-figure ho' doin' her stuff.

    No, it’s one of those haters alright, but he’s got a dyslectic heart:

    “Nah, nah, nah, nah…
    nah-na, nah-na, nah-na…
    oh, oh, oh …

  24. @jdubs
    China’s experience differs from us in two crucial ways:

    1) their blue collar workforce is largely migrant, and once folks go home for CNY and stay a while, it’s harder to lure them back to work

    2) work from home basically doesn’t exist in China. many white collar jobs that NYers are now doing remotely are just paused because in China not every employee is issued a laptop and zoom account

    The first observation would suggest that we can bounce back faster. The second would suggest our economic trough would be more shallow, which also means our rebound will be less extreme.

    Thanks for being that someone who speaks about how an economic downturn is followed by a surge and is not the end of the world. As we all know, it was the pent-up demand due to WW2 rationing and switch to production of war materiel that primed the pump for the 50’s—60’s boom.

    We will recover and life will go on. There will be money to help businesses that faltered.

    All in due time.

    • Replies: @Whiskey
    You've obviously never worked in the private sector. I had to furlough my direct reports, and more people are being furloughed, without pay. Next step layoffs. I work at a medium sized company. For small ones its worse.

    Downturns can last decades. The Panic of 1873 lasted 23 years. The depression lasted until WWII conscription and massive government military spending soaked up unemployment. The "pent up demand" meant nothing if people had no money (another clue you've never worked in the private sector -- something so dumb only an academic could say it). The Depression had 12 years of pent up demand. That meant nothing until people earned money.

    In New Orleans in Dec. of 1941, unemployment was something like 75% of adult males. Think about that. A few months later with the Higgins Boat Company having two new factories and all running 247 shifts, it was ... 4%. Anyone not drafted could get a job. And have money they could not spend. THAT not just time was the function of pent up demand. And loss of competition from Europe and Asia.

    Now, is anything like that on the horizon? Remember the other big Depression lasted during the Frontier Expansion.

    People who get laid off have a hard time finding jobs. And their spending is depressed for years as they have to save up again what cash they saved during previous employment. Its even harder when they are competing against: A. Everyone Else who was laid off; B. An imported Global Workforce. C. Global Outsourcing like $9 an hour engineers at Boeing on the 737 Max in Vietnam and India. D. all the small business owners are wiped out and can't start a new business. E. Big business prefers to outsource more work than hire Americans.

    HAving stupid leaders and stupid media people and a feminized, hysterical society has real costs. A global decades long Depression and all the violence inherent in plunging middle class people into deep permanent poverty is most likely.
  25. Unfortunately, I can’t find the full paper online. So who really knows?

    Easy-peasy… Go to baidu.cn and search on

    他COVID-19大流行结束了吗? 来自中国106个城市的“留在家中”政策执行的证据

    Ya’ know, life was so much easier when we could just burn a few witches to make our problems go away.

  26. @Anon
    I've been pondering the history of flu pandemics and the history of tobacco use. It turns out there is a interesting parallel between between a particular method of tobacco use and flu pandemics. Flu outbreaks are essentially a 20th-century phenomenon. I still remember being surprised when I read a physician's memoir from the 1800s in which he states he had never seen a case of the flu until the Russian flu pandemic of 1889, and no doctor he knew had ever seen one until then, either.

    There was a profound change in tobacco habits that began to take place in the late 1800s which picked up a lot of momentum in the early 1900s. In the 1800s, the majority of people who imbibed tobacco CHEWED it. Yes, there were pipe smokers, but there there way, way more chewers in proportion. Chewing was a insanely common habit. I was bemused, many years ago, to listen to my grandmother and her female friends discussing how all the women in their mother's and grandmother's generations chewed tobacco. But then there came a wave of social change, and being a chewer was no longer respectable. It was labelled dirty and disgusting because of the habit of spitting tobacco juice, and spittoons began to vanish from public places.

    But the most important thing here is, CHEWING LEAVES YOUR LUNGS ALONE.

    So what took the place of chewing? Cigarette smoking. Rolling machines were invented in the 1800s that created a cheap, mass-produced cylinder that began to take off in popularity. Let me quote Wiki here: "Production climbed markedly when another cigarette-making machine was developed in the 1880s by James Albert Bonsack, which vastly increased the productivity of cigarette companies, which went from making about 40,000 hand-rolled cigarettes daily to around 4 million."

    In other words, a bunch of chewers, shamed into giving up their quid, were looking around for a cheap and less socially disgraceful way to imbibe tobacco just as cigarette use really began to take off. In fact, sales of cigarettes were probably driven by those trying to find an alternative that was more socially acceptable.

    But oddly enough, this vast expansion in cigarette use coincided with the first great flu pandemic, the Russian flu outbreak of 1889.

    In 1918, you had a wave of young men off the farm being mobilized for war. Many of them showed up at boot camp away from the parental eye for the first time, and many of them were introduced to the cigarette smoking habit there. Let me quote Wiki again here about tobacco marketing: "Free or subsidized branded cigarettes were distributed to troops during World War I. Demand for cigarettes in North America, which had been roughly doubling every five years, began to rise even faster, now approximately tripling during the four years of war."

    So, an awful lot of young men suddenly started damaging their lungs right before the 1918 flu pandemic hit. That's very interesting.

    As Louis Pasteur said: "It's not the germ. It's the terrain."

    We've had flu with us ever since. But you know what? SMOKERS ARE VIRAL INCUBATORS THAT ENDANGER NONSMOKERS.

    Smokers have more trouble recovering from respiratory illnesses than nonsmokers do. They get sick more often, and they take longer to recover. Because of this, smokers develop a heavier viral load than a normal person would. When a healthy, normal person comes in contact with a smoker carrying a massive viral load, that healthy person can acquire part of that massive load and became very ill. A healthy person could easily fight off the occasional stray respiratory virus found in nature. The human immune system copes with that quite easily. But if you put healthy people around a lot of very sick people with huge viral loads, even the healthy people will become sick.

    Basically, when you have a respiratory pandemic that breaks out, it's because all the smokers in the population are being used by the virus as walking incubators that dramatically boosts the virus' reproduction and range of spread.

    Smokers really do a heck of a lot of damage to nonsmokers, as well as to themselves.

    Um, that’s a pretty cool argument. As a former smoker, I’ll attest to the truth of what you say about susceptibility and viral load.

    There is nothing more insane than deliberately inhaling burning leaves directly into your lungs.

  27. Who can believe a frakking Communist?

  28. @Mr McKenna
    FWIW, it dovetails to some degree with this study:

    https://www.zdnet.com/article/harvard-researchers-social-distancing-during-covid-19-may-have-to-be-turned-on-and-off-like-a-spigot/

    Marc Lipsitch has been redpilled and accurate from very early on, he’s a good source and one of the best Americans/Westerners.

    Follow Scott Gottlieb, he’s another very good American source/opinion on virus stuff.

  29. @Anon
    I've been pondering the history of flu pandemics and the history of tobacco use. It turns out there is a interesting parallel between between a particular method of tobacco use and flu pandemics. Flu outbreaks are essentially a 20th-century phenomenon. I still remember being surprised when I read a physician's memoir from the 1800s in which he states he had never seen a case of the flu until the Russian flu pandemic of 1889, and no doctor he knew had ever seen one until then, either.

    There was a profound change in tobacco habits that began to take place in the late 1800s which picked up a lot of momentum in the early 1900s. In the 1800s, the majority of people who imbibed tobacco CHEWED it. Yes, there were pipe smokers, but there there way, way more chewers in proportion. Chewing was a insanely common habit. I was bemused, many years ago, to listen to my grandmother and her female friends discussing how all the women in their mother's and grandmother's generations chewed tobacco. But then there came a wave of social change, and being a chewer was no longer respectable. It was labelled dirty and disgusting because of the habit of spitting tobacco juice, and spittoons began to vanish from public places.

    But the most important thing here is, CHEWING LEAVES YOUR LUNGS ALONE.

    So what took the place of chewing? Cigarette smoking. Rolling machines were invented in the 1800s that created a cheap, mass-produced cylinder that began to take off in popularity. Let me quote Wiki here: "Production climbed markedly when another cigarette-making machine was developed in the 1880s by James Albert Bonsack, which vastly increased the productivity of cigarette companies, which went from making about 40,000 hand-rolled cigarettes daily to around 4 million."

    In other words, a bunch of chewers, shamed into giving up their quid, were looking around for a cheap and less socially disgraceful way to imbibe tobacco just as cigarette use really began to take off. In fact, sales of cigarettes were probably driven by those trying to find an alternative that was more socially acceptable.

    But oddly enough, this vast expansion in cigarette use coincided with the first great flu pandemic, the Russian flu outbreak of 1889.

    In 1918, you had a wave of young men off the farm being mobilized for war. Many of them showed up at boot camp away from the parental eye for the first time, and many of them were introduced to the cigarette smoking habit there. Let me quote Wiki again here about tobacco marketing: "Free or subsidized branded cigarettes were distributed to troops during World War I. Demand for cigarettes in North America, which had been roughly doubling every five years, began to rise even faster, now approximately tripling during the four years of war."

    So, an awful lot of young men suddenly started damaging their lungs right before the 1918 flu pandemic hit. That's very interesting.

    As Louis Pasteur said: "It's not the germ. It's the terrain."

    We've had flu with us ever since. But you know what? SMOKERS ARE VIRAL INCUBATORS THAT ENDANGER NONSMOKERS.

    Smokers have more trouble recovering from respiratory illnesses than nonsmokers do. They get sick more often, and they take longer to recover. Because of this, smokers develop a heavier viral load than a normal person would. When a healthy, normal person comes in contact with a smoker carrying a massive viral load, that healthy person can acquire part of that massive load and became very ill. A healthy person could easily fight off the occasional stray respiratory virus found in nature. The human immune system copes with that quite easily. But if you put healthy people around a lot of very sick people with huge viral loads, even the healthy people will become sick.

    Basically, when you have a respiratory pandemic that breaks out, it's because all the smokers in the population are being used by the virus as walking incubators that dramatically boosts the virus' reproduction and range of spread.

    Smokers really do a heck of a lot of damage to nonsmokers, as well as to themselves.

    And with the advent of the “vast expansion in cigarette” came the invention of the matchbook.

    And matchbook advertising.

    “By the 1920s, the matchbook was the most popular advertising format in North America.”

    https://www.cbc.ca/radio/undertheinfluence/striking-images-matchbook-advertising-1.2801847

  30. Good luck getting young people to stop “hanging out” in the ordinary small groups of four or five passing around a bong etc like a lot of them do. A lot of them think this is just a long spring break and I’d expect such behavior both amongst whites in Generation Bastard and especially in the ‘hood. Also there are a lot of middle aged white conservatives who think the whole thing is a “liberal hoax” and don’t take it seriously, that was the whole theme of Limbaugh’s show in early March. A 69 year old with lung cancer should be more worried about a novel respiratory virus that just jumped to humans from bats and has been killing 8% in his age range. Serious denial, nobody saying this has any right to criticize the gays anymore for still going to the bath houses and leather bars in 1983-84 as this is the same denial behavior they are displaying about this thing.

    • Agree: snorlax
  31. Doesn’t the answer basically depend on the efficacy of hydroquinone (or whatever drug)? Isn’t it pointless to try and model cost benefit without that?

  32. @anon
    I do not know what to make of this. It could be disinformation, it could be straight, it could be a deep game.

    Question: how many funeral urns have actually been delivered to Wuhan recently?

    http://shanghaiist.com/2020/03/27/urns-in-wuhan-far-exceed-death-toll-raising-more-questions-about-chinas-tally/

    Perhaps urn profiteers are merely trying to cash in?

    Urn leggers.

  33. @Anon
    Well, if the disease takes two weeks to clear up and become non-contagious, then putting everyone in an individual hermetically sealed plexiglas cylinder with I.V. nutrition for two weeks, along with water-tight border controls, would completely eliminate the disease (although some cylinders will contain corpses).

    If you do it with family units rather than individuals, you need to expect that some members will infect other members during the lockdown, so add a week or three.

    But leakiness is inevitable. The cops, the health workers, going out to buy "essential supplies" and getting infected on the last day of lockdown. Forcing people to live off of mass-produced delivered MREs would eliminate that.

    The French lock-down was clever: There are two online forms you have to fill in and physically have with you to show to cops. I looked at them and I think they could be improved. On YouTube you see that the cops don't touch the forms and keep their distance, so the forms should print out large type or symbols readable from a distance. The cops could see that you are out for dog walking, you left your apartment (or at least printed the sheet) 20 minutes previously, you live in such and such a neighborhood (to enforce a 500 yards limit or whatever), and if they had an online system to track your activities, that you last walked your dog the previous day. People who "don't have online access" (the same chaps who "don't have ID for voting"?) could just be instructed to write something on paper before they leave the house. The sanction for not having your papers could be a stiff fine for whites and Asians, and restorative justice for URMs.

    Razib Khan last week (before Trump thought of it) said that interstate or even "more granular" movement restrictions are really necessary in a place the size of the U.S., so localities could be allowed to recover at different paces.

    putting everyone in an individual hermetically sealed plexiglas cylinder with I.V. nutrition for two weeks, along with water-tight border controls, would completely eliminate the disease (although some cylinders will contain corpses).

    I’ve mused on that before myself. If we could do that globally then many common communicable diseases would be genocided.

  34. @Jenner Ickham Errican
    To the “B-b-but the economy!” and “Turn the machines back on!” criers: Look, the ‘economy’ is gonna be fucked for awhile. People will suffer no matter what. That’s just how it is. We need to wait to see what we got.

    For now, as best we can, heed the dirge of Corona-chan:

    “Keep The Streets Empty For Me”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWFb5z3kUSQ

    Reminder to the flocks of the blithe and stubbornly skeptical:

    Wolves exist, including Big Bad Ones that can suddenly, catastrophically, end many, many, human lives.

    https://cdna.artstation.com/p/assets/images/images/011/123/960/4k/jakub-rozalski-wilk-syty-owca-calas.jpg

    I have a feeling if we shut the entire economy down, and your utilities were shut off, you’d feel differently.

    What, you have no compassion for the power company workers, the food production workers, the farmers, the truckers, the grocery store workers? Shut that all down for a month and no one would be left to worry about a virus.

    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican

    What, you have no compassion for the power company workers, the food production workers, the farmers, the truckers, the grocery store workers? Shut that all down for a month and no one would be left to worry about a virus.
     
    You are embarrassingly confused. Those are officially designated essential services—no one in government is shutting them down.

    Now, if Corona-chan is able to sicken (and kill) a significant amount of otherwise healthy workers in those sectors in part because we don’t keep the streets empty for her—as warned—then yeah, we’re gonna have a rougher go.
  35. Kung Flu isn’t a “liberal hoax” but the liberal/Dem media, which of course is almost all media, has weaponized it and politicized it so it can be used as a truncheon against Trump.

    The “hoax” part is that the numbers are still tiny when compared to annual regular flu deaths as well as deaths by many other causes in the US and around the world. And the way individual countries count death by covid-19 is sketchy at best. Who’s to say many of these elderly would have died anyway if any little virus “got into them”. When one is very old, death occurs from often several, concurrent reasons.

    If and when the numbers become horrid is when we’ll know this is a once in a century thing.

  36. @Jenner Ickham Errican
    To the “B-b-but the economy!” and “Turn the machines back on!” criers: Look, the ‘economy’ is gonna be fucked for awhile. People will suffer no matter what. That’s just how it is. We need to wait to see what we got.

    For now, as best we can, heed the dirge of Corona-chan:

    “Keep The Streets Empty For Me”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWFb5z3kUSQ

    Reminder to the flocks of the blithe and stubbornly skeptical:

    Wolves exist, including Big Bad Ones that can suddenly, catastrophically, end many, many, human lives.

    https://cdna.artstation.com/p/assets/images/images/011/123/960/4k/jakub-rozalski-wilk-syty-owca-calas.jpg

    Just about the dumbest comment I’ve ever seen here on Unz. But I understand it — women don’t think, only feelz.

    You cannot shut down the economy for even two weeks without massive unemployment. Without massive WHITE unemployment. For much longer and you are looking at 30% unemployment which is larger than the Great Depression. More like the 1873 Depression that lasted 23 years.

    Are you prepared for the social, violent consequences for that level of unemployment for more than twenty years? There is no open frontier, and Whites are now a defacto and discriminated against minority in their own country. Its not 1933, we cannot tolerate that type of wide/deep/permanent recession. The economy is not a car motor that can be turned off and on.

    Discrimination against Whites particularly Straight White men is now the law of the land thanks to Civil Rights. That has been papered over by cheap credit, bail outs, a consumer economy, and various distractions all of which cost money and are not available in a Depression. Much less one that lasts decades.

    Are you prepared for daily bombings of freeways, streets, buildings, etc.? A Tim McVeigh every day? Or Unabomber? How about daily assassinations, and political killings? Roving bands of vibrants ala the Rodney King Riots, and counter-militias of Koreans, Whites, etc. as in the King Riots?

    America is no longer a country. It is an extended stay hotel with welfare benefits for non-Whites and gays/lesbians. It is held together, barely, by money through employment enabling social isolation. Take that away and you get Civil War that makes Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq look like a Kindergarten slap fight.

    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican

    Just about the dumbest comment I’ve ever seen here on Unz. But I understand it — women don’t think, only feelz.
     
    I’m not a woman. And ironically, you’re the hysterical, mopey one (as usual). If you care to re-read my original comment, it is calm and rational.

    Are you prepared for the social, violent consequences for that level of unemployment for more than twenty years?
     

    Are you prepared for daily bombings of freeways, streets, buildings, etc.? A Tim McVeigh every day? Or Unabomber? How about daily assassinations, and political killings? Roving bands of vibrants ala the Rodney King Riots, and counter-militias of Koreans, Whites, etc. as in the King Riots?
     
    Yes. Aren’t you? You’ve been predicting doom for years.
  37. @prime noticer
    communist dictatorship better than a republic at forcing citizens to do what the leadership wants. news at 11.

    looks to me like Democrat governors are budding communist dictators in the making. i bet these guys have erections 24/7 right now. power beyond anything they ever dreamed of. they get to tell you whether your business is essential or not. in some states, they even made it illegal to go FISHING during the 'crisis'. they can't believe their luck. close firearms stores, let criminals out of prison, shut down horrendous capitalist dogs and their for profit businesses. tell you where you can and can't go.

    Cuomo will quarantine NYC if he wants to. he's just claiming the right to do it himself, and won't allow the President to do for him. if anybody is gonna quarantine things around here, it's gonna be me!

    It is interesting, if not convenient, that the steps necessary to combat COVID-19 just happen to be everything that is on the neo-liberal globalist wish list: mass surveilance, cashless society, crushing small business, an isolated and atomized citizenry that is encouraged to stay inside and watch Netflix.

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman, BB753
  38. @ThreeCranes
    Thanks for being that someone who speaks about how an economic downturn is followed by a surge and is not the end of the world. As we all know, it was the pent-up demand due to WW2 rationing and switch to production of war materiel that primed the pump for the 50’s—60’s boom.

    We will recover and life will go on. There will be money to help businesses that faltered.

    All in due time.

    You’ve obviously never worked in the private sector. I had to furlough my direct reports, and more people are being furloughed, without pay. Next step layoffs. I work at a medium sized company. For small ones its worse.

    Downturns can last decades. The Panic of 1873 lasted 23 years. The depression lasted until WWII conscription and massive government military spending soaked up unemployment. The “pent up demand” meant nothing if people had no money (another clue you’ve never worked in the private sector — something so dumb only an academic could say it). The Depression had 12 years of pent up demand. That meant nothing until people earned money.

    In New Orleans in Dec. of 1941, unemployment was something like 75% of adult males. Think about that. A few months later with the Higgins Boat Company having two new factories and all running 247 shifts, it was … 4%. Anyone not drafted could get a job. And have money they could not spend. THAT not just time was the function of pent up demand. And loss of competition from Europe and Asia.

    Now, is anything like that on the horizon? Remember the other big Depression lasted during the Frontier Expansion.

    People who get laid off have a hard time finding jobs. And their spending is depressed for years as they have to save up again what cash they saved during previous employment. Its even harder when they are competing against: A. Everyone Else who was laid off; B. An imported Global Workforce. C. Global Outsourcing like $9 an hour engineers at Boeing on the 737 Max in Vietnam and India. D. all the small business owners are wiped out and can’t start a new business. E. Big business prefers to outsource more work than hire Americans.

    HAving stupid leaders and stupid media people and a feminized, hysterical society has real costs. A global decades long Depression and all the violence inherent in plunging middle class people into deep permanent poverty is most likely.

    • Agree: Neoconned
    • Replies: @Neoconned
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/27/coronavirus-us-retail-store-closures-to-drag-into-april-likely-longer.html

    They're talking about this pandemic "permanently changing consumer shopping behavior".....& with 15k plus store closures....in an economy that's 70% consumption that cant be good.

    47k stores are on at least a temporary closure:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/total-halt-47000-stores-shutter-across-us-virtually-all-retailers-stop-paying-rent#comment_stream

    Meanwhile countries are starting to hoard food stocks...."slowing global trade".....this is deflationary and could lead to a Carter like "malaise".....

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/markets/countries-are-starting-to-hoard-food-threatening-global-trade/ar-BB11EY3M

    This could be a blip like the Spanish Flu fallout.....or.....it could be as you noted like the so called"Long Depression" of the late 1800s....
  39. ”A global decades long Depression and all the violence inherent in plunging middle class people into deep permanent poverty is most likely.“

    That’s a long, slender limb you’re going out on.

  40. @The Wild Geese Howard

    For now, as best we can, heed the dirge of Corona-chan:

    “Keep The Streets Empty For Me”
     
    That track is far too positive for the mass hysteria/psychosis/mental breakdown we are witnessing:

    Controlled Bleeding - Words of the Dying

    https://youtu.be/NwhnrG7WyhE

    That track is far too positive for the mass hysteria/psychosis/mental breakdown we are witnessing

    That track is merely good advice from the virus herself.

    There is no mass hysteria/psychosis/mental breakdown yet in the United States. Right now things are mostly calm, if guarded.

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

    There is no mass hysteria/psychosis/mental breakdown yet in the United States. Right now things are mostly calm, if guarded.
     
    Oh, don't worry. We're going to revisit this take in two weeks. Just you wait.
    , @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    There is no mass hysteria/psychosis/mental breakdown yet in the United States.

     

    In the words of Anthony McAuliffe, "Nuts!"
  41. @Che Blutarsky
    I have a feeling if we shut the entire economy down, and your utilities were shut off, you'd feel differently.

    What, you have no compassion for the power company workers, the food production workers, the farmers, the truckers, the grocery store workers? Shut that all down for a month and no one would be left to worry about a virus.

    What, you have no compassion for the power company workers, the food production workers, the farmers, the truckers, the grocery store workers? Shut that all down for a month and no one would be left to worry about a virus.

    You are embarrassingly confused. Those are officially designated essential services—no one in government is shutting them down.

    Now, if Corona-chan is able to sicken (and kill) a significant amount of otherwise healthy workers in those sectors in part because we don’t keep the streets empty for her—as warned—then yeah, we’re gonna have a rougher go.

  42. @Whiskey
    Just about the dumbest comment I've ever seen here on Unz. But I understand it -- women don't think, only feelz.

    You cannot shut down the economy for even two weeks without massive unemployment. Without massive WHITE unemployment. For much longer and you are looking at 30% unemployment which is larger than the Great Depression. More like the 1873 Depression that lasted 23 years.

    Are you prepared for the social, violent consequences for that level of unemployment for more than twenty years? There is no open frontier, and Whites are now a defacto and discriminated against minority in their own country. Its not 1933, we cannot tolerate that type of wide/deep/permanent recession. The economy is not a car motor that can be turned off and on.

    Discrimination against Whites particularly Straight White men is now the law of the land thanks to Civil Rights. That has been papered over by cheap credit, bail outs, a consumer economy, and various distractions all of which cost money and are not available in a Depression. Much less one that lasts decades.

    Are you prepared for daily bombings of freeways, streets, buildings, etc.? A Tim McVeigh every day? Or Unabomber? How about daily assassinations, and political killings? Roving bands of vibrants ala the Rodney King Riots, and counter-militias of Koreans, Whites, etc. as in the King Riots?

    America is no longer a country. It is an extended stay hotel with welfare benefits for non-Whites and gays/lesbians. It is held together, barely, by money through employment enabling social isolation. Take that away and you get Civil War that makes Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq look like a Kindergarten slap fight.

    Just about the dumbest comment I’ve ever seen here on Unz. But I understand it — women don’t think, only feelz.

    I’m not a woman. And ironically, you’re the hysterical, mopey one (as usual). If you care to re-read my original comment, it is calm and rational.

    Are you prepared for the social, violent consequences for that level of unemployment for more than twenty years?

    Are you prepared for daily bombings of freeways, streets, buildings, etc.? A Tim McVeigh every day? Or Unabomber? How about daily assassinations, and political killings? Roving bands of vibrants ala the Rodney King Riots, and counter-militias of Koreans, Whites, etc. as in the King Riots?

    Yes. Aren’t you? You’ve been predicting doom for years.

  43. @Achmed E. Newman
    I've been told the same thing from my Chinese source, #681. Chinese people do not believe the numbers out of their government. (Who does?) I was just going to write a comment about this, but yours will suffice till I get to see something I can trust on this.

    I don't think any kind of models of the Kung Flu in Chinese locations really apply very well to most of America. We are much more spread out here, that being a good thing in a lot of ways, but also with this virus around. The Chinese people lived packed together and seem to like it that way.

    Isn’t 8 a lucky number in Chinese? It’s suspicious that when the number of cases in China reached 80,000 the government promptly declared the epidemic over.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    I'll add that there have been riots in China as people from Wuhan tried to travel to other places and the locals mobilized to stop them. Clearly, lots of people in China don't think the epidemic is over.
  44. @Jenner Ickham Errican

    That track is far too positive for the mass hysteria/psychosis/mental breakdown we are witnessing
     
    That track is merely good advice from the virus herself.

    There is no mass hysteria/psychosis/mental breakdown yet in the United States. Right now things are mostly calm, if guarded.

    There is no mass hysteria/psychosis/mental breakdown yet in the United States. Right now things are mostly calm, if guarded.

    Oh, don’t worry. We’re going to revisit this take in two weeks. Just you wait.

    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican

    We’re going to revisit this take in two weeks. Just you wait.
     
    To be clear, the cited take applies to its timestamp, not two weeks from now.

    While we wait, here’s a slammin’ triple shot of mid ’90s millenarian/dystopian/apocalyptic (lefty-posing, alas) industrial rock—I think you’ll appreciate Killing Joke’s other single from that era:

    Fire burn all our uncertainties
    Water wash away impurities
    Contradictions and predictions abound
    Yes I believe that we can turn it around

     
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAoj_ukSbM0

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mn1kLnpq9FM

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUdhmZBu5bw
    , @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    There's no need to revisit it in two weeks, Howard.

    Jennifer isn't paying attention to reality.

    The state of Pennsylvania tried to stop truckers from taking rest stops because that's a "threat to public health." The Diocese of Pittsburgh just banned priests from hearing drive-through confessions because that's a "threat to public health." On what planet are either of those two things a threat to spreading a virus? Meanwhile, we're all still allowed to visit Wal-Mart - but not our local barber, etc. America is insulating the rich and screwing the poor.

    There are countless such examples if Jennifer would like to open her eyes and look.

  45. @Anonymous
    Isn't 8 a lucky number in Chinese? It's suspicious that when the number of cases in China reached 80,000 the government promptly declared the epidemic over.

    I’ll add that there have been riots in China as people from Wuhan tried to travel to other places and the locals mobilized to stop them. Clearly, lots of people in China don’t think the epidemic is over.

  46. @The Wild Geese Howard

    There is no mass hysteria/psychosis/mental breakdown yet in the United States. Right now things are mostly calm, if guarded.
     
    Oh, don't worry. We're going to revisit this take in two weeks. Just you wait.

    We’re going to revisit this take in two weeks. Just you wait.

    To be clear, the cited take applies to its timestamp, not two weeks from now.

    While we wait, here’s a slammin’ triple shot of mid ’90s millenarian/dystopian/apocalyptic (lefty-posing, alas) industrial rock—I think you’ll appreciate Killing Joke’s other single from that era:

    Fire burn all our uncertainties
    Water wash away impurities
    Contradictions and predictions abound
    Yes I believe that we can turn it around

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

    To be clear, the cited take applies to its timestamp, not two weeks from now.
     
    Fair enough.

    I think you’ll appreciate Killing Joke’s other single from that era.
     
    Still have the KJ - Millennium CD singles in my 500-disc binder. MOLG were good, never got that into PWEI.
  47. @Anon
    I've been pondering the history of flu pandemics and the history of tobacco use. It turns out there is a interesting parallel between between a particular method of tobacco use and flu pandemics. Flu outbreaks are essentially a 20th-century phenomenon. I still remember being surprised when I read a physician's memoir from the 1800s in which he states he had never seen a case of the flu until the Russian flu pandemic of 1889, and no doctor he knew had ever seen one until then, either.

    There was a profound change in tobacco habits that began to take place in the late 1800s which picked up a lot of momentum in the early 1900s. In the 1800s, the majority of people who imbibed tobacco CHEWED it. Yes, there were pipe smokers, but there there way, way more chewers in proportion. Chewing was a insanely common habit. I was bemused, many years ago, to listen to my grandmother and her female friends discussing how all the women in their mother's and grandmother's generations chewed tobacco. But then there came a wave of social change, and being a chewer was no longer respectable. It was labelled dirty and disgusting because of the habit of spitting tobacco juice, and spittoons began to vanish from public places.

    But the most important thing here is, CHEWING LEAVES YOUR LUNGS ALONE.

    So what took the place of chewing? Cigarette smoking. Rolling machines were invented in the 1800s that created a cheap, mass-produced cylinder that began to take off in popularity. Let me quote Wiki here: "Production climbed markedly when another cigarette-making machine was developed in the 1880s by James Albert Bonsack, which vastly increased the productivity of cigarette companies, which went from making about 40,000 hand-rolled cigarettes daily to around 4 million."

    In other words, a bunch of chewers, shamed into giving up their quid, were looking around for a cheap and less socially disgraceful way to imbibe tobacco just as cigarette use really began to take off. In fact, sales of cigarettes were probably driven by those trying to find an alternative that was more socially acceptable.

    But oddly enough, this vast expansion in cigarette use coincided with the first great flu pandemic, the Russian flu outbreak of 1889.

    In 1918, you had a wave of young men off the farm being mobilized for war. Many of them showed up at boot camp away from the parental eye for the first time, and many of them were introduced to the cigarette smoking habit there. Let me quote Wiki again here about tobacco marketing: "Free or subsidized branded cigarettes were distributed to troops during World War I. Demand for cigarettes in North America, which had been roughly doubling every five years, began to rise even faster, now approximately tripling during the four years of war."

    So, an awful lot of young men suddenly started damaging their lungs right before the 1918 flu pandemic hit. That's very interesting.

    As Louis Pasteur said: "It's not the germ. It's the terrain."

    We've had flu with us ever since. But you know what? SMOKERS ARE VIRAL INCUBATORS THAT ENDANGER NONSMOKERS.

    Smokers have more trouble recovering from respiratory illnesses than nonsmokers do. They get sick more often, and they take longer to recover. Because of this, smokers develop a heavier viral load than a normal person would. When a healthy, normal person comes in contact with a smoker carrying a massive viral load, that healthy person can acquire part of that massive load and became very ill. A healthy person could easily fight off the occasional stray respiratory virus found in nature. The human immune system copes with that quite easily. But if you put healthy people around a lot of very sick people with huge viral loads, even the healthy people will become sick.

    Basically, when you have a respiratory pandemic that breaks out, it's because all the smokers in the population are being used by the virus as walking incubators that dramatically boosts the virus' reproduction and range of spread.

    Smokers really do a heck of a lot of damage to nonsmokers, as well as to themselves.

    Interesting, thankyou.

  48. @Jenner Ickham Errican

    That track is far too positive for the mass hysteria/psychosis/mental breakdown we are witnessing
     
    That track is merely good advice from the virus herself.

    There is no mass hysteria/psychosis/mental breakdown yet in the United States. Right now things are mostly calm, if guarded.

    There is no mass hysteria/psychosis/mental breakdown yet in the United States.

    In the words of Anthony McAuliffe, “Nuts!”

  49. @The Wild Geese Howard

    There is no mass hysteria/psychosis/mental breakdown yet in the United States. Right now things are mostly calm, if guarded.
     
    Oh, don't worry. We're going to revisit this take in two weeks. Just you wait.

    There’s no need to revisit it in two weeks, Howard.

    Jennifer isn’t paying attention to reality.

    The state of Pennsylvania tried to stop truckers from taking rest stops because that’s a “threat to public health.” The Diocese of Pittsburgh just banned priests from hearing drive-through confessions because that’s a “threat to public health.” On what planet are either of those two things a threat to spreading a virus? Meanwhile, we’re all still allowed to visit Wal-Mart – but not our local barber, etc. America is insulating the rich and screwing the poor.

    There are countless such examples if Jennifer would like to open her eyes and look.

    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican

    The state of Pennsylvania tried to stop truckers from taking rest stops because that’s a “threat to public health.” The Diocese of Pittsburgh just banned priests from hearing drive-through confessions because that’s a “threat to public health.”
     
    LOL. If you think what’s happening now is bad, all y’all pansies are going to spontaneously melt down if an actual WAR were to break out.

    There are countless such examples
     
    Sure: I found it highly amusing that Rhode Island Governor Raimondo sent the Gestapo (door-to-door!) to identify and hunt down scattering NYC rats while Cuomo cried foul. Suddenly we have Dem vs. Dem fights on the merits of (internal!) open borders? Hahahahaha

    Here’s a little modus operandi tip for the overanxious: Close your eyes, think of everything bad that can (for whatever reason) possibly happen, I mean really, really bad, let it sink in, then open your eyes: Right now things are working. Continual adjustments will need to be made. Things could get out of control. But as of this timestamp, we (in the United States) are still functioning.

    If you’re familiar with my comments you’ll know that I recently declared the United States as having advanced from Stage 1 to Stage 2 on the SSSoR. That is significant. However, given immediate known knowns and known unknowns, at this moment we are still far from Stage 3.

  50. @Jenner Ickham Errican

    We’re going to revisit this take in two weeks. Just you wait.
     
    To be clear, the cited take applies to its timestamp, not two weeks from now.

    While we wait, here’s a slammin’ triple shot of mid ’90s millenarian/dystopian/apocalyptic (lefty-posing, alas) industrial rock—I think you’ll appreciate Killing Joke’s other single from that era:

    Fire burn all our uncertainties
    Water wash away impurities
    Contradictions and predictions abound
    Yes I believe that we can turn it around

     
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAoj_ukSbM0

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mn1kLnpq9FM

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUdhmZBu5bw

    To be clear, the cited take applies to its timestamp, not two weeks from now.

    Fair enough.

    I think you’ll appreciate Killing Joke’s other single from that era.

    Still have the KJ – Millennium CD singles in my 500-disc binder. MOLG were good, never got that into PWEI.

  51. UK says:

    There seems to be a strong correlation between how well a country looks, in the stats, to have dealt with Coronavirus and how high a percentage they have for criminal conviction.

    Now it might be that 99.9% of Chinese prosecuted for crimes are really guilty as per the conviction rate but only if they are not prosecuting any but complete home-run cases and therefore letting most criminals off.

    Or it might just be that face-saving cultures will find ways to save face by hook or by crook.

    It is just sad that Western spaz-nerd power-trippers will automatically believe them.

    As it was with similar spaz-nerds and the Soviet Union, it is now with the CCP. Ironic though that they see themselves as completely different from those spaz-nerds from the past.

  52. @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    There's no need to revisit it in two weeks, Howard.

    Jennifer isn't paying attention to reality.

    The state of Pennsylvania tried to stop truckers from taking rest stops because that's a "threat to public health." The Diocese of Pittsburgh just banned priests from hearing drive-through confessions because that's a "threat to public health." On what planet are either of those two things a threat to spreading a virus? Meanwhile, we're all still allowed to visit Wal-Mart - but not our local barber, etc. America is insulating the rich and screwing the poor.

    There are countless such examples if Jennifer would like to open her eyes and look.

    The state of Pennsylvania tried to stop truckers from taking rest stops because that’s a “threat to public health.” The Diocese of Pittsburgh just banned priests from hearing drive-through confessions because that’s a “threat to public health.”

    LOL. If you think what’s happening now is bad, all y’all pansies are going to spontaneously melt down if an actual WAR were to break out.

    There are countless such examples

    Sure: I found it highly amusing that Rhode Island Governor Raimondo sent the Gestapo (door-to-door!) to identify and hunt down scattering NYC rats while Cuomo cried foul. Suddenly we have Dem vs. Dem fights on the merits of (internal!) open borders? Hahahahaha

    Here’s a little modus operandi tip for the overanxious: Close your eyes, think of everything bad that can (for whatever reason) possibly happen, I mean really, really bad, let it sink in, then open your eyes: Right now things are working. Continual adjustments will need to be made. Things could get out of control. But as of this timestamp, we (in the United States) are still functioning.

    If you’re familiar with my comments you’ll know that I recently declared the United States as having advanced from Stage 1 to Stage 2 on the SSSoR. That is significant. However, given immediate known knowns and known unknowns, at this moment we are still far from Stage 3.

  53. @Whiskey
    You've obviously never worked in the private sector. I had to furlough my direct reports, and more people are being furloughed, without pay. Next step layoffs. I work at a medium sized company. For small ones its worse.

    Downturns can last decades. The Panic of 1873 lasted 23 years. The depression lasted until WWII conscription and massive government military spending soaked up unemployment. The "pent up demand" meant nothing if people had no money (another clue you've never worked in the private sector -- something so dumb only an academic could say it). The Depression had 12 years of pent up demand. That meant nothing until people earned money.

    In New Orleans in Dec. of 1941, unemployment was something like 75% of adult males. Think about that. A few months later with the Higgins Boat Company having two new factories and all running 247 shifts, it was ... 4%. Anyone not drafted could get a job. And have money they could not spend. THAT not just time was the function of pent up demand. And loss of competition from Europe and Asia.

    Now, is anything like that on the horizon? Remember the other big Depression lasted during the Frontier Expansion.

    People who get laid off have a hard time finding jobs. And their spending is depressed for years as they have to save up again what cash they saved during previous employment. Its even harder when they are competing against: A. Everyone Else who was laid off; B. An imported Global Workforce. C. Global Outsourcing like $9 an hour engineers at Boeing on the 737 Max in Vietnam and India. D. all the small business owners are wiped out and can't start a new business. E. Big business prefers to outsource more work than hire Americans.

    HAving stupid leaders and stupid media people and a feminized, hysterical society has real costs. A global decades long Depression and all the violence inherent in plunging middle class people into deep permanent poverty is most likely.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/27/coronavirus-us-retail-store-closures-to-drag-into-april-likely-longer.html

    They’re talking about this pandemic “permanently changing consumer shopping behavior”…..& with 15k plus store closures….in an economy that’s 70% consumption that cant be good.

    47k stores are on at least a temporary closure:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/total-halt-47000-stores-shutter-across-us-virtually-all-retailers-stop-paying-rent#comment_stream

    Meanwhile countries are starting to hoard food stocks….”slowing global trade”…..this is deflationary and could lead to a Carter like “malaise”…..

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/markets/countries-are-starting-to-hoard-food-threatening-global-trade/ar-BB11EY3M

    This could be a blip like the Spanish Flu fallout…..or…..it could be as you noted like the so called”Long Depression” of the late 1800s….

  54. Anonymous[388] • Disclaimer says:

    There was huge relief when China announced it had brought the epidemic under control. If it turns out they’ve lied over this, I don’t know what’s going to happen. It’s going to be really bad.

    • Replies: @BB753
    I do believe them. What the Chinese didn't say was that they are expecting covid-19 to come back next November with a vengeance, in a mutated form.
    But they will be ready while we are not ready now and never will be, with our stupid liberal globo-homo institutions and led by women and incompetent yes-men, with the Rockefeller-bankrolled institutions like the CFR, the Trilateral Commission and the Bilderberg Club in the background, foolishly believing they can outsmart the Chinese and Russia and make trillions out of the resulting chaos.
    This coming decade, we will hopefully witness the downfall of globalism and masonry. God works in mysterious ways.
  55. @Anonymous
    There was huge relief when China announced it had brought the epidemic under control. If it turns out they've lied over this, I don't know what's going to happen. It's going to be really bad.

    I do believe them. What the Chinese didn’t say was that they are expecting covid-19 to come back next November with a vengeance, in a mutated form.
    But they will be ready while we are not ready now and never will be, with our stupid liberal globo-homo institutions and led by women and incompetent yes-men, with the Rockefeller-bankrolled institutions like the CFR, the Trilateral Commission and the Bilderberg Club in the background, foolishly believing they can outsmart the Chinese and Russia and make trillions out of the resulting chaos.
    This coming decade, we will hopefully witness the downfall of globalism and masonry. God works in mysterious ways.

  56. Anonymous[399] • Disclaimer says:

    The Chinese are now claiming that they had it under control, but that it was brought back into the country by foreigners.

    Westerners, especially Americans, need to get out of that country ASAP if they haven’t done so already.

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