From the Daily Mail:
CDC updates its guidelines to say coronavirus ‘does not spread easily’ from contaminated surfaces – but warns it still ‘may be possible’
CDC says ‘touching surfaces or objects’ no longer considered a primary method of transmission
It has been added to list of ways in which the virus does not spread ‘readily’
Differs from earlier advice which warned it ‘may be possible’ to catch Covid-19 by touching contaminated surfaces
CDC continues to warn that virus spreads ‘very easily’ from person to person
Here’s how to help people impacted by Covid-19
By SOPHIE TANNO FOR MAILONLINEPUBLISHED: 07:01 EDT, 21 May 2020
When did the old consensus that the germ was spread more by touching things than by talking to people crack up?
My recollection: Back on April 1, I wrote about how I was excited that a team of German scientists would be studying in excruciating detail the spread of the virus in hard-hit Gangelt in the Heinsberg district. To my surprise, on April 9, I posted their preliminary findings:
German Scientists: Virus Is Spread Less by Work Than by Fun
… So if these German scientists are right (and they might not be, but I’ve been looking forward to their findings since April 1 because this is a serious effort), then restarting the economy will be easier than restarting the society, which is good news and bad news. We ought to be able to get back to work sooner, but how are new couples going to meet?
So it’s good to see that this tidal wave of evidence has finally gotten through to the CDC and the mass media, but it would have been better if stubbornness hadn’t kept the old ill-informed assumptions in place so long.
I’m sure some people beat Herr Professor Streeck to the punch, but I can recall going through an Agonizing Reappraisal of what I thought I knew about how the virus spread when he held his press conference in early April. For example, in March I repeatedly pointed out the obvious differences in infection rates between ski vacationers and golf vacationers. I would make sure to include apres ski as a possible reason for this giant gap, but tended, in the spirit of the age, to think more about the Fomite Menace.
Why did Streeck’s findings come as such a surprise?
I’m guessing that some of the Establishment’s obsession in March and April with handwashing was due to their anti-mask prejudice, a little of which was Machiavellian due to the mask shortage, but most of it flowed logically from their anti-mask prejudice.
But, in general, there didn’t seem to be much in the way of a standard checklist already existent for how to think about what questions to ask about a novel virus. For example, there has been very little 80-20 thinking even though Pareto’s ratio is so often very helpful to improving thought. Very few people asked: okay, what are the 20% of activities that cause 80% of the spread.
Instead, the Establishment’s thinking shifted in a few days from Don’t Do Anything (except wash your hands and check your white privilege) to Lock Down Now!
Even worse, the conventional wisdom then locked in on lock down, rather than admitting, okay, that was dumb and crude but we didn’t know what else to do at the moment, so let’s figure out what we should reopen as quickly as possible. So, reopen, say, beaches and golf courses, because it was stupid to shut them, but not ski resorts.
Instead, rather than saying, sure, lockdowns were dumb things to do but we were so ignorant at that moment that that was all we could come up with, much of the MSM has doubled down on the idea that lockdowns are a smart thing to do, then, now, and into the indefinite future.
In general, there seemed like a major lack of preparation on what the important questions to answer quickly would be in the case of a novel pandemic. For example, Touching Things vs. Talking to People is an important distinction to figure out, but the Establishment is only wrapping their head around it in later May.
Did public health authorities on December 31, 2019 have a prepared list of important questions to answer in this kind of emergency? I sure haven’t heard of one. I get the impression that much of the Conventional Wisdom is averse to the idea that The Science doesn’t have all the answers already.
Scientists themselves should have tried harder to be immune to this kind of Trust The Science thinking and instead have put more effort into making up lists of questions for which approximate answers needed to be come up with fast to guide decisionmakers toward making less bad decisions.

GOOD……! Can I go back to the fucking gym now Gavin?
Shelter in place citizen. Do not leave your place of residence.
Do not murder innocents by walking around.
Gym seems especially risky without masks. Exhaling during exertion by asymptomatic carriers in an enclosed space is a worst-case scenario.
Sheesh…so tired of Nazis. Some snarky kid should make a movie about California hippies who turned into Nazis after all, 70 years later!
hahahhahahhahaa Yes, baby; Quentin Tarantino, I know of 2-3 guys who will write your most prickly screenplay, yet! And, it will be popular all over the world! Because, the Covid hyper expression and failed suppression is such a mess, such a effin mess, world-wide. Such a mess! – my MIL’s best euphemism of ‘epic fail.’ I trust the Greatest Generation to still give us fools, for direction and courage, decision making. We are in a fucked up time – wake up!
The Zumba story out of South Korea is pretty eye-opening.
One thing I haven’t seen in studies of square footage of rooms affecting risk is whether the third dimension, how high the ceiling is, matters.
I get that they could have gone on to spread the virus to others, and eventually it might reach a vulnerable person. But the odds of serious effects to an under-40 fit person in a Zumba class are next to nil, according to the data.
I wonder if there is any correlation (negative or positive), between one's vulnerability to the virus, and one's propensity to spread it to others once infected.
The concept of "viral load" might imply that the vulnerable serve as a breeding ground for large quantities of virus as their weaker immune systems allow it to propagate en masse. OTOH, those who are asymptomatic may have less viral load due to a more robust immune system. But for that very reason, they "are out and about" and thus more likely to transmit whatever quantity of virus they carry to others.
This is kind of like the “Limit your egg consumption because of cholesterol” thing that took the American Heart Association about a decade to nix after similar organizations around the world had reversed their positions in light of research. It’s just kind of … embarassing to reverse a position after previously being so adamant about it. All those public service television commercials … uh … nevermind …
OT
I saw this coming, but still, it shocks me:
University of California Will End Use of SAT and ACT in Admissions
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/21/us/university-california-sat-act.html
Golden State Blockbuster: U. of California Will Replace ACT and SAT With New Test — or None at All
https://www.chronicle.com/article/Golden-State-Blockbuster-U/248832
University of California Board Votes Down SAT and ACT – In five years, there will be a new test or UC will abandon use of standardized tests in admissions
https://www.insidehighered.com/admissions/article/2020/05/21/university-california-votes-phase-out-sat-and-act
So admission will be based on high school grades, teacher’s recommendations, Black Lives Matter extracurricular protest activity, and absence of violin or piano proficiency?
The “new test” will never happen. The faculty committee report explained all the problems that would crop up when you make the Smarter Balanced test into a high-stakes test, including the probable sudden evaporation of any advantages that black students may now seem to have on it relative to Asians and whites. Once it becomes high stakes, Asians and whites will hunker down and black students won’t know what hit them.
The SAT and ACT will still be used by out-of-staters and foreign students, who are not going to bother to take a California-only test.
Think of 1939 but with TikToks!Replies: @Mr McKenna, @Redneck farmer
Asians who aren't hip to the agenda, and who trust that the experts are just trying to come up with a fairer way to measure merit, are in for a rude awakening.Replies: @Mr McKenna
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/when-entrance-exams-were-abolished/
Spoiler alert: Diversity went DOWN.
He thinks the recent emergency shift to online ed has thrown open floodgates. He says Google, Microsoft et al must (are legally required to) expand revenues which will force them to cannibalize ever larger industries. The two obvious candidates are health and education. He leaves out housing which I think will be the third, but later. He points out that Harvard is arguably the world's strongest brand, and it will be utilized. Big tech will radically expand the reach of top tier universities, whose enrollments balloon accordingly. The residential campus experience is then for the rich kids, and distance degrees become more affordable. The value of the degree goes down in the long run but nevermind. This is about administrators looking to benefit their own careers now, not to protect their institutions' brands into the 50s.
If these predictions are accurate, second tiers (all UCs besides Cal) would do well to accelerate strategies for admitting mediocre masses. Their supply of students will decrease (vacuumed up by better brands) while their numbers of "seats" to fill massively increases.Replies: @Alan Mercer
White gentiles just need to make sure there's a Jewish quota as well and they aren't getting screwed out of their share. Basically any group that wants a separate quota to avoid getting squeezed--ex. say Pacific Islanders from "Asians"--should be able to get it.
But better than quotas ... why not separate universities? UC-Asian, A couple different UC-White. A bunch of UC-Mexican, not just Merced. A UC-black ... not really the population for it in California, but this is America and blacks must be worshipped everywhere. And a UC-rainbow or two or three for people who really want that.
Separation would actually make almost everyone's experience better. Diversity is tedious grind for people that most people have to work around to find compatible people to live life with--who may be nominally "diverse", but generally are more like themselves--while keeping a tedious smiley face about "diversity".
Or go whole hog. Admit these universities are pretty much worthless piles of crap now outside of STEM. We don't need to stick with the Fordist--everyone go to class and get knowledged--model of higher ed, anymore than we need it for lower ed. Get some competency tests going for young people--actually any people--to certify their basic verbal and mathematical competence as well as knowledge across a range of subjects. They get the unis off the public teat.
Restore freedom of association for everyone, and the private unis--those few that remain--can admit anyone they damn well please.
The number of college applicants, indeed the number of plausibly college ready 18-year-olds, just peaked and will now plummet nationwide. All colleges will have to become less selective in undergraduate admissions. By going SAT-optional now, the UCs lock in the stats of their median admitted SAT scores and 25th and 75th percentiles at a time when college admissions are most competitive. For at least several years, these numbers will go into US News' rankings calculator, while other schools who keep the SATs will see their SAT stats go down.Replies: @res
Jesus! Steve, if you are joking it is one thing…but if you believe this, then you can no longer ridicule people who ridicule SJW’s.
OT
I saw this coming, but still, it shocks me:
University of California Will End Use of SAT and ACT in Admissions
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/21/us/university-california-sat-act.html
Golden State Blockbuster: U. of California Will Replace ACT and SAT With New Test — or None at All
https://www.chronicle.com/article/Golden-State-Blockbuster-U/248832
University of California Board Votes Down SAT and ACT - In five years, there will be a new test or UC will abandon use of standardized tests in admissions
https://www.insidehighered.com/admissions/article/2020/05/21/university-california-votes-phase-out-sat-and-act
So admission will be based on high school grades, teacher’s recommendations, Black Lives Matter extracurricular protest activity, and absence of violin or piano proficiency?
The “new test” will never happen. The faculty committee report explained all the problems that would crop up when you make the Smarter Balanced test into a high-stakes test, including the probable sudden evaporation of any advantages that black students may now seem to have on it relative to Asians and whites. Once it becomes high stakes, Asians and whites will hunker down and black students won’t know what hit them.
The SAT and ACT will still be used by out-of-staters and foreign students, who are not going to bother to take a California-only test.Replies: @Lagertha, @Red Blooded American Boomer, @Mike_from_SGV, @XYZ (no Mr.), @Hypnotoad666, @Almost Missouri, @Hapalong Cassidy, @Alan Mercer, @AnotherDad, @anonymous
sad. just really sad.
“Scientists themselves should have tried harder to be immune to this kind of Trust The Science thinking and instead have put more effort into making up lists of questions for which approximate answers needed to be come up with fast to guide decisionmakers toward making less bad decisions.”
The wrong view of science betrays itself in the craving to be right; for it is not his possession of knowledge, of irrefutable truth, that makes the man of science, but his persistent and recklessly critical quest for truth.—Karl Popper
This German used the lockdown to end his relationship. There’s also a golf angle to the story, but it’s kind of subtle.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/20/health/johnson-and-johnson-stops-selling-talc-based-baby-powder-trnd/index.html
Other websites, like NPR, make explicit mention of the law-suits against J&J over their talcum powder.
Never let a crisis go to waste.
speaking of that, where is the peer reviewed, journal published article that 6 feet is any kind of useful guideline?
must be right up there with closing ALL the stores in your city, except the 2 or 3 big box stores, then forcing you into those along with thousands of other people.
what idiotic, transparent bullshit nonsense this entire thing is.
Despite "travel ban", flights are still landing in the US every day from foreign plague sources, including Wuhan,
and no testing or quarantine of arrivals.
I guess it's too much to ask of today's Establishment that they should at least pretend to believe their own pronouncements.Replies: @Coemgen
I'm willing to accept the distancing as a precaution under uncertainty, but this was stupid. Closing all but groceries and big box hypermarkets seems about the most inconsistent approach imaginable. Since we can't go to Kohls or Pennys, let's cram into that Target and Sams Club.
Had the Governors forbidden sale of anything but food and cleaning supplies it would have at least made some internal sense. As structured, it counts as one of those "unforgivable" mistakes (to charitable) were not quickly corrected.
OT
I saw this coming, but still, it shocks me:
University of California Will End Use of SAT and ACT in Admissions
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/21/us/university-california-sat-act.html
Golden State Blockbuster: U. of California Will Replace ACT and SAT With New Test — or None at All
https://www.chronicle.com/article/Golden-State-Blockbuster-U/248832
University of California Board Votes Down SAT and ACT - In five years, there will be a new test or UC will abandon use of standardized tests in admissions
https://www.insidehighered.com/admissions/article/2020/05/21/university-california-votes-phase-out-sat-and-act
So admission will be based on high school grades, teacher’s recommendations, Black Lives Matter extracurricular protest activity, and absence of violin or piano proficiency?
The “new test” will never happen. The faculty committee report explained all the problems that would crop up when you make the Smarter Balanced test into a high-stakes test, including the probable sudden evaporation of any advantages that black students may now seem to have on it relative to Asians and whites. Once it becomes high stakes, Asians and whites will hunker down and black students won’t know what hit them.
The SAT and ACT will still be used by out-of-staters and foreign students, who are not going to bother to take a California-only test.Replies: @Lagertha, @Red Blooded American Boomer, @Mike_from_SGV, @XYZ (no Mr.), @Hypnotoad666, @Almost Missouri, @Hapalong Cassidy, @Alan Mercer, @AnotherDad, @anonymous
You should be thankful to live through the 2020’s Boomar Republic. Think of what will come by `33 and what you’ll be able to tell your grand children, assuming they live through the aftermath.
Think of 1939 but with TikToks!
I wonder if there was an error in translation from something in China. Either a medical article that was misread, or an intercepted secret communication. Or Chinese disinfo.
Steve,
Maybe you can explain why stories of infection spread get headlines when the vast majority of people infected have “a cold”
The people dying from Covid do not go to fitness clubs. Many likely haven’t left their room under their own power this year.
Covid fear is one of the strangest delusions in world history. We have so much data and we refuse to allow it to inform us.
“How many Americans even know that children have near-zero threat and anyone under 60 has next to no risk of dying from the virus? Even those between 60 and 69 are at much lower risk than anything the government has suggested and that the level of panic indicates.”
https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-one-chart-exposes-lie-behind-universal-lockdowns/
Speaking of bad advice. How about the notion that after you come down with the virus (in fact any virus), you should wait around until symptoms worsen before you get treatment with an antiviral. Unfortunately, I fear that in a few months we will think back on how much our ignorance cost us in lives and treasure (e.g. tens of thousands of lives and trillions of dollars lost because we didn’t have enough 50 cent masks).
Americans are so divided, forever, that they are so weak. – would you really care about your neighbor it they voted for the other party? – no, hate is too thick.
Back in the day, a small impoverished country had to bring the leftists into the camp:
because people were afraid.
Democrats are pushing for Bolshevism – they must be stopped. I could show you of photos of killed children, cattle & women, by the Boshevists, but I am trying so hard to not be so angry all the time.
So… a Mexican man drove to an Arizona mall yesterday and said, en route, whilst live-posting on Snapchat: “Hello, my name is Armando Junior Hernandez and I’m gonna be the shooter of Westgate 2020,” while flashing a beer can and showing guns in his back seat? And then he shot up the place and sent people to the hospital? Why didn’t I hear about this earlier? Unfathomable. I just don’t understand.
https://nypost.com/2020/05/21/suspected-shooter-armando-hernandez-filmed-mall-attack-on-snapchat/
>by a guy named Hernandez
As the 4chan rules say, "it is a mystery [extremely low quality picture of a ghost]."
It is interesting to me that he was so not-angry and unmotivated. He sounded like a bad actor noncommitally reading new lines. He even flubbed them like an actor. Because of the, the mean society. Yeah. Another plastic brick in the establishment's "incel" hoax. Mexican. Virgins. And you thought that "Mexican intellectuals" was unbelievable.
A shooter in Toronto, Canada, was identified by crown prosecutors as an agent for I.N.C.E.L. -- that's not me. The Canadians have decided, possibly through a quirk of the metric system, that I.N.C.E.L. is an acronym, and published it like that in serious newspapers. They don't say what it stands for.
Our society is so sick that opportunities to discuss a collapsing standard of living or a corrupted elite are batted away by calling people "loser virgins" like in middle school.Replies: @Almost Missouri, @kaganovitch
OT
I saw this coming, but still, it shocks me:
University of California Will End Use of SAT and ACT in Admissions
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/21/us/university-california-sat-act.html
Golden State Blockbuster: U. of California Will Replace ACT and SAT With New Test — or None at All
https://www.chronicle.com/article/Golden-State-Blockbuster-U/248832
University of California Board Votes Down SAT and ACT - In five years, there will be a new test or UC will abandon use of standardized tests in admissions
https://www.insidehighered.com/admissions/article/2020/05/21/university-california-votes-phase-out-sat-and-act
So admission will be based on high school grades, teacher’s recommendations, Black Lives Matter extracurricular protest activity, and absence of violin or piano proficiency?
The “new test” will never happen. The faculty committee report explained all the problems that would crop up when you make the Smarter Balanced test into a high-stakes test, including the probable sudden evaporation of any advantages that black students may now seem to have on it relative to Asians and whites. Once it becomes high stakes, Asians and whites will hunker down and black students won’t know what hit them.
The SAT and ACT will still be used by out-of-staters and foreign students, who are not going to bother to take a California-only test.Replies: @Lagertha, @Red Blooded American Boomer, @Mike_from_SGV, @XYZ (no Mr.), @Hypnotoad666, @Almost Missouri, @Hapalong Cassidy, @Alan Mercer, @AnotherDad, @anonymous
A perfect illustration of modern liberalism: our poor minorities are low-achievement, so let’s stop measuring achievement.
None of the nursing home victims were out having fun. The majority of patients hospitalized in NYC in April were locked in their homes , unemployed or retired..
The vulnerable elderly should probably avoid going to bars , restaurants , clubs, gyms and taking flights. The difference in risk from Bowling or Skiing etc. are not going to matter much. It is obviously that being around a lot of people inside will raise your risk. Since young people are already immune to this virus and old people are at such a greater risk and have no need to work so they should just stay home and allow everyone else to go back to living normal lives. Those under the age of 50 have almost zero risk of being hospitalized , driving a car is much more risky to those under the age of 50.
What we really needed for this crisis was not a bunch of elaborate models and supposedly informed scientific assumptions but a scientific Tiger Team that could put together quick and dirty models and conduct rapid studies to answer basic questions.
Experts don’t seem to get that they can easily build castles in the air that have nothing to do with the reality of a crisis. For a crisis, they need agile, insightful thinkers who can put together solutions fast.
Life is an IQ test, and especially a crisis is an IQ test.
A little more fluid intelligence, please.
Seriously though, what makes you sure this Tiger Team, even if comprised of people, not cats, would come up with any smart advise when the most basic of numbers, the IFR of this virus was not known due to both its numerator and denominator being numbers pulled out of government officials' and university professors' asses.
Like the Tiger Team that figured out how the shuttle Challenger was destroyed! Yeah!
Surely, you must be joking.
OT
I saw this coming, but still, it shocks me:
University of California Will End Use of SAT and ACT in Admissions
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/21/us/university-california-sat-act.html
Golden State Blockbuster: U. of California Will Replace ACT and SAT With New Test — or None at All
https://www.chronicle.com/article/Golden-State-Blockbuster-U/248832
University of California Board Votes Down SAT and ACT - In five years, there will be a new test or UC will abandon use of standardized tests in admissions
https://www.insidehighered.com/admissions/article/2020/05/21/university-california-votes-phase-out-sat-and-act
So admission will be based on high school grades, teacher’s recommendations, Black Lives Matter extracurricular protest activity, and absence of violin or piano proficiency?
The “new test” will never happen. The faculty committee report explained all the problems that would crop up when you make the Smarter Balanced test into a high-stakes test, including the probable sudden evaporation of any advantages that black students may now seem to have on it relative to Asians and whites. Once it becomes high stakes, Asians and whites will hunker down and black students won’t know what hit them.
The SAT and ACT will still be used by out-of-staters and foreign students, who are not going to bother to take a California-only test.Replies: @Lagertha, @Red Blooded American Boomer, @Mike_from_SGV, @XYZ (no Mr.), @Hypnotoad666, @Almost Missouri, @Hapalong Cassidy, @Alan Mercer, @AnotherDad, @anonymous
Black students are 4 to 5 percent of the many millions of K-12 students in California public schools. Hispanic students are 55 percent. This isn’t the American South. Black Lives Matter doesn’t matter. I know Ron Unz loves him some Mexicans, regardless of litter, and Steve Sailer and others may consider them politically passive. I don’t think that. Dumping these tests is the only way the state is remotely going to get UC campuses to reflect the actual youth of the state. And these changes aren’t being made because of black people.
It’d have been even better if those ill-informed assumptions had never been seen as the word of God by everyone and his
brotherblogger to begin with.Does this mean that the kids can at least play basketball with different balls but with the same rims and pavement? Should I put a call option* on my wipes portfolio.
.
* No, Jack D., I DON’T know what a call option is, but this is artistic license, so you don’t need to chime in. Thx.
What we REALLY needed was a Tiger Team made up of real tigers who would attack and maul anyone who came across the city limits deigning to tell people what to do based on a 24/7/90-day Infotainment Panic Fest marathon on TV.
Seriously though, what makes you sure this Tiger Team, even if comprised of people, not cats, would come up with any smart advise when the most basic of numbers, the IFR of this virus was not known due to both its numerator and denominator being numbers pulled out of government officials’ and university professors’ asses.
Gym seems especially risky without masks.
Risky for who exactly? The tiny % of gym goers who are elderly? Or who have multiple underlying conditions?
Reality check: Gym goers are vastly not at risk because they are relatively young and healthy.
I was tired of the nonsense two months ago. At this late date there are no excuses.
Get it straight: COVID IS NOT A SERIOUS DISEASE FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE POPULATION.
Covid is a weakling that bounces off the young. It bounces off homeless people. The hospital data is non-transparent because the reality does not justify the lockdown.
The gym community is a flashpoint of civil disobedience for damn good reasons.
PARANOID IGNORAMUSES NEED TO STAY HOME AND LEAVE THE REST OF US TO GO ABOUT OUR LIVES.
F*** YOU AND YOUR FILTHY MASK THAT HASN’T BEEN STERILIZED IN TEN DAYS.
The coronavirus is a creature of God’s, which is descended from a billion years of successful coronaviri.
There is absolutely nobody who understands how these things work when they are doing what they need to do to survive.
You cannot understand a coronavirus by empathizing with its view of the world – and thus anybody who thinks that mathematicians or statisticians, whose entire skill set is based on empathizing with numbers and probabilities, are gonna defeat the coronavirus JUST BY THINKING is deluded.
OF COURSE scientists understand unsuccessful coronaviri, just like cops can always catch the mentally defective recidivist criminals.
Understanding successful threats to humanity is REALLY REALLY HARD and I for one am not gonna claim I know anyone who understands such things in an efficient and useful way.
We need more faith healers and fewer von Neumann fan boys. Trust me. Of course we need the drudges among us who make incremental improvements in our understanding, but the coronaviri have defeated drudges again and again in the past, if they hadn’t they would not still be around, living the good life as if the death of hundreds of thousands was a picnic.
And compared to the limited scientific knowledge of the best of us ….
even the Chinese, who know bats really well, have been losing battle after battle in this bat plague.
And you might think, well China has not had many deaths lately from the coronavirus!
Well, maybe not. But let’s face it, if they could defeat it worldwide, they would.
They are for the most part – even some of the Communist Bandits – good hearted enough to want to defeat the coronavirus.
They can’t, and there are more than a billion of them, not a single one of whom is on the winning side in this thing.
Years from now we will have other challenges, but this is not a war that anyone will ever be able to say they won without having lost many many very important battles which could have been won if we had a few more faith healers and a few less von Neumann fanboys.
This was not a rant, this was the truth, whether you know it or not.
You mean Yahweh. He's a real bastard.Replies: @Stephen Dodge
What we really needed for this crisis was not a bunch of elaborate models and supposedly informed scientific assumptions but a scientific Tiger Team that could put together quick and dirty models and conduct rapid studies to answer basic questions.
Like the Tiger Team that figured out how the shuttle Challenger was destroyed! Yeah!
Surely, you must be joking.
Still, there are some things you should avoid touching.
Bardon Kaldian