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In the NYT, an expert on intubation explains the new view among New York emergency room doctors on what is killing so many people: silent hypoxia. Those with pneumonia caused by the coronavirus don’t have enough oxygen in their blood, but they aren’t short of breath until they’ve had pneumonia for several days, so they don’t go to the emergency room until they’ve already suffered severe lung damage.

But if you get to the hospital when pneumonia first sets in, they can probably get you through it without a ventilator.

Fortunately, there’s a simple and reasonably cheap device you can buy right now to detect if you are running out of oxygen and get treatment when treatment can do the most good.

The Infection That’s Silently Killing Coronavirus Patients
This is what I learned during 10 days of treating Covid pneumonia at Bellevue Hospital.

By Richard Levitan
Dr. Levitan is an emergency doctor.

A major reason this pandemic is straining our health system is the alarming severity of lung injury patients have when they arrive in emergency rooms. Covid-19 overwhelmingly kills through the lungs. And because so many patients are not going to the hospital until their pneumonia is already well advanced, many wind up on ventilators, causing shortages of the machines. And once on ventilators, many die.

Avoiding the use of a ventilator is a huge win for both patient and the health care system. The resources needed for patients on ventilators are staggering. …

There is a way we could identify more patients who have Covid pneumonia sooner and treat them more effectively — and it would not require waiting for a coronavirus test at a hospital or doctor’s office. It requires detecting silent hypoxia early through a common medical device that can be purchased without a prescription at most pharmacies: a pulse oximeter.

Pulse oximetry is no more complicated than using a thermometer. These small devices turn on with one button and are placed on a fingertip. In a few seconds, two numbers are displayed: oxygen saturation and pulse rate. Pulse oximeters are extremely reliable in detecting oxygenation problems and elevated heart rates.

Pulse oximeters helped save the lives of two emergency physicians I know, alerting them early on to the need for treatment. When they noticed their oxygen levels declining, both went to the hospital and recovered (though one waited longer and required more treatment). Detection of hypoxia, early treatment and close monitoring apparently also worked for Boris Johnson, the British prime minister.

It would be nice if the Prime Minister’s doctors would explain how exactly they treated the world’s most famous CV survivor.

Widespread pulse oximetry screening for Covid pneumonia — whether people check themselves on home devices or go to clinics or doctors’ offices — could provide an early warning system for the kinds of breathing problems associated with Covid pneumonia. …

All patients who have tested positive for the coronavirus should have pulse oximetry monitoring for two weeks, the period during which Covid pneumonia typically develops. All persons with cough, fatigue and fevers should also have pulse oximeter monitoring even if they have not had virus testing, or even if their swab test was negative, because those tests are only about 70 percent accurate. A vast majority of Americans who have been exposed to the virus don’t know it.

Amazon sells fingertip pulse oximeters for around $50, with delivery times of one to two weeks. If you don’t have one, buy one now. It could save a loved one’s life. (Granted, $50 is a ripoff: I paid $18.95 on March 8. But if you need one you need one now, so buy one now.)

The epidemiologists have only interpreted the Infection Fatality Rate, in various ways. The point, however, is to change it.

iSteve commenter PiltdownMan adds a useful perspective:

The article explains that

The coronavirus attacks lung cells that make surfactant. This substance helps keep the air sacs in the lungs stay open between breaths and is critical to normal lung function. As the inflammation from Covid pneumonia starts, it causes the air sacs to collapse, and oxygen levels fall. Yet the lungs initially remain “compliant,” not yet stiff or heavy with fluid. This means patients can still expel carbon dioxide — and without a buildup of carbon dioxide, patients do not feel short of breath.

Patients compensate for the low oxygen in their blood by breathing faster and deeper — and this happens without their realizing it.

Free divers, who go diving in water without scuba gear, are warned against hyperventilating in advance precisely because of this phenomenon in a more extreme form.

A few weeks ago a NYC doctor put out an influential video warning that ventilators weren’t working well for this disease because it was less like the problems ventilators were built to deal with and more like the altitude sickness suffered by Everest climbers who can’t get enough oxygen in their blood. The free diving analogy might be even more helpful.

Hyperventilating expels CO2 from the bloodstream. A hyperventilated diver may not feel the need to surface, even as he depletes oxygen to the point of unconsciousness, because the buildup of CO2 lags the depletion of oxygen, and he doesn’t feel the need to surface and gasp for air.

Wikipedia has a nice couple of graphs explaining the phenomenon.

 
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  1. This is another thing, like masks, that a month ago when they were $15 or $20 on Amazon, delivered next day. the authorities told us we didn’t need, wasn’t really reliable, etc.

    • Replies: @Lugash
    I bought a handful of them and doled them out to family and friends as the pandemic kicked off. Youtube pandemic star Dr. John Campbell has a video on how to use them.
  2. The article explains that

    The coronavirus attacks lung cells that make surfactant. This substance helps keep the air sacs in the lungs stay open between breaths and is critical to normal lung function. As the inflammation from Covid pneumonia starts, it causes the air sacs to collapse, and oxygen levels fall. Yet the lungs initially remain “compliant,” not yet stiff or heavy with fluid. This means patients can still expel carbon dioxide — and without a buildup of carbon dioxide, patients do not feel short of breath.

    Patients compensate for the low oxygen in their blood by breathing faster and deeper — and this happens without their realizing it.

    Free divers, who go diving in water without scuba gear, are warned against hyperventilating in advance precisely because of this phenomenon in a more extreme form.

    Hyperventilating expels CO2 from the bloodstream. A hyperventilated diver may not feel the need to surface, even as he depletes oxygen to the point of unconsciousness, because the buildup of CO2 lags the depletion of oxygen, and he doesn’t feel the need to surface and gasp for air.

    Wikipedia has a nice couple of graphs explaining the phenomenon.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freediving_blackout#Shallow_water_blackout

    • Thanks: ic1000, Meretricious, Bubba, Kronos
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Thanks.

    A few weeks ago, there was the video from the New York doctor arguing that intubation was being overused and comparing it to Mt. Everest climbers' altitude sickness. This might be an even better analogy.

    , @ic1000
    A prediction of your model is that (as shown in the Wiki free-dive graphs), blood CO2 will drop long before blood O2 drops in pre-crisis Covid-19 patients. And that this pattern is different from the "standard" about-to-enter-into-respiratory-distress syndromes.

    Has anybody published or commented on this, either way?
  3. If Trump hears of this and Twitters it, the Derangement Crew with suffocate, just for spite.

  4. @PiltdownMan
    The article explains that


    The coronavirus attacks lung cells that make surfactant. This substance helps keep the air sacs in the lungs stay open between breaths and is critical to normal lung function. As the inflammation from Covid pneumonia starts, it causes the air sacs to collapse, and oxygen levels fall. Yet the lungs initially remain “compliant,” not yet stiff or heavy with fluid. This means patients can still expel carbon dioxide — and without a buildup of carbon dioxide, patients do not feel short of breath.

    Patients compensate for the low oxygen in their blood by breathing faster and deeper — and this happens without their realizing it.

     
    Free divers, who go diving in water without scuba gear, are warned against hyperventilating in advance precisely because of this phenomenon in a more extreme form.

    Hyperventilating expels CO2 from the bloodstream. A hyperventilated diver may not feel the need to surface, even as he depletes oxygen to the point of unconsciousness, because the buildup of CO2 lags the depletion of oxygen, and he doesn't feel the need to surface and gasp for air.

    Wikipedia has a nice couple of graphs explaining the phenomenon.

    https://i.imgur.com/7h5w5Sv.jpg

    https://i.imgur.com/JlGF4sU.jpg


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freediving_blackout#Shallow_water_blackout

    Thanks.

    A few weeks ago, there was the video from the New York doctor arguing that intubation was being overused and comparing it to Mt. Everest climbers’ altitude sickness. This might be an even better analogy.

    • Replies: @Steve from Detroit
    I saw that video right when it came out, and I was heartened that this youngish doctor had not only challenged the orthodox method of treatment, but then put in on a video for all to see. That seems like a possible career-ender, and I would love to hear the stories of when/how he brought this up with his colleagues and/or the head of the ER at the hospital where he was working. Ironically, I have a friend of a friend who is an ER doc at that same hospital. I will be interested in hearing about this when I next see him, which is usually in the summer.
    , @obwandiyag
    I pointed the video out on here back when it came out. Nobody listened because I am bad.
    , @Sol
    The alternative view that the virus acts on hemoglobin and interferes with oxygen uptake has not been confirmed and accepted by mainstream medicine yet.
  5. anon[272] • Disclaimer says:

    It would be nice if the Prime Minister’s doctors would explain how exactly they treated the world’s most famous CV survivor.

    Am I the only one who thinks he didn’t really have it? Was there any actual evidence?

    I mean, one minute he’s public enemy number one because he fucked up the pandemic response – but now he’s sympathetic again because he’s a victim.

    • Replies: @BenKenobi
    Same with JUSTin's wife, Tom "HIV" Hanks, Idris "007" Elba, etc etc.

    We must all keep up our morale! Remember the boys fighting on the Malabar front!

    Don't you realize that every time you say "I don't believe in COVID" an immigrant's lungs fills with fluid? Please clap.
    , @The Alarmist

    Am I the only one who thinks he didn’t really have it? Was there any actual evidence?
     
    Then again, BoJo got it shortly after his decision to go ahead with Huawei 5-G. Maybe someone unleashed a dose of the less-lethal "S" strain on him as a warning shot.
    , @Keypusher
    No, idiots like you are a dime a dozen.
    , @Hail

    Am I the only one who thinks he didn’t really have it? [...] now he’s sympathetic again because he’s a victim.
     
    Written by me, April 9 (and, elsewhere, right after the news came out on April 6), during his hospitalization:

    "Prime Minister Boris Johnson hospitalized with COVID19."

    Or, Boris Johnson’s latest publicity stunt.
     

    Despite, it was later revealed, being only a precaution, not having pneumonia, not being a prime candidate for hospitalization, he was hospitalized — and the very evening before the UK total-death data through the end of March was published. This pre-emptive strike by Mr. Self-Promoter (Boris Publicity Stunt Johnson) deflated the sails of the good news that the UK’s total deaths through the end of March were still lower year-to-date than the running average for 2015-to-2019, more strong evidence against the Corona Apocalypse.

    Although we are not necessarily going to ever know for sure, the strong possibility that Boris’ sudden “turn for the worse” (“Only to heroically pull through!” curtain; Act III) raises several possibilities. Whose choice was the hospitalization? His own, a classic Boris move to gain sympathy? Or was it other members of the “Corona Coup d’Etat” faction, who want UK’ers to show more damned respect for the Corona Panic, our substitute God now that Easter has been cancelled?

    (And what better example of a one-time heretic to the Holy CoronaReligion to make than Boris, who led a rearguard action until late in the game against the Corona Panic, resisting the mass shutdowns longer than the other cavers-in?)
     
    April 10 follow-up to this prediction:

    Boris’ sudden “turn for the worse” (“Only to heroically pull through!” Curtain; Act III)
     

    And, sure enough, now this:

    U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson out of intensive care
    NBC News
     
  6. the reason ER docs intubate and put people on ventilators is because that’s what they do. It was never because it was the correct treatment for THIS illness, but ER docs are not trained to think about root causes nor about downstream effects. They think sbout the tools to keep you alive right now. So if they see you aren’t breathing properly and are afraid you’ll die in their ER, they put you in a ventilator. Never mind the cause of the breathing troubles or possible treatments.

    • Disagree: ic1000
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Normally, you really don't want ER doctors to suffer paralysis through analysis.

    It takes awhile to figure new things out, and the people who are good at reacting decisively to old problems aren't always the best at Dr. House-style analyses of new problems.

    , @ic1000
    > the reason ER docs intubate and put people on ventilators is because that’s what they do.

    Alice, are you speaking from personal experience, or do you have an article or opinion piece in mind? What you write does not match what I've seen, or the attitudes of the US ER docs who I know. Instead, these folks are intensely interested in understanding the disease process and adapting their procedures to make them more effective.

    This is not to say that they are "doing the right things," as those things will become known with hindsight. But AFAICT it isn't monkey-see monkey-do.
    , @Jack D
    I don' think that they would intubate you in the ER unless you came in not breathing at all. Normally they would send you to the ICU and the ICU docs would make the decision to intubate.

    At the beginning of this epidemic they assumed that Covid was like other respiratory diseases and they would need lots and lots of ventilators which would outrun the supply (even now they are working furiously on building ventilators that they will never use). It's only thru experience that they have now realized that in many or most cases it's better not to intubate for Covid. In any novel disease it take a while to hit upon the best treatment plan. Unfortunately, in the interim many people die from having received the wrong treatment. Medicine inches forward one corpse at a time.
  7. @Alice
    the reason ER docs intubate and put people on ventilators is because that's what they do. It was never because it was the correct treatment for THIS illness, but ER docs are not trained to think about root causes nor about downstream effects. They think sbout the tools to keep you alive right now. So if they see you aren't breathing properly and are afraid you'll die in their ER, they put you in a ventilator. Never mind the cause of the breathing troubles or possible treatments.

    Normally, you really don’t want ER doctors to suffer paralysis through analysis.

    It takes awhile to figure new things out, and the people who are good at reacting decisively to old problems aren’t always the best at Dr. House-style analyses of new problems.

    • Agree: Bubba
    • Replies: @peterike

    Normally, you really don’t want ER doctors to suffer paralysis through analysis. It takes awhile to figure new things out, and the people who are good at reacting decisively to old problems aren’t always the best at Dr. House-style analyses of new problems.
     
    The explosion of both Asians and women in the medical field isn't going to help with outside-the-box thinking. That's what you get when you hire people who have follower mentalities.
  8. Lack of surfactant is what affects many premature infants. Unfortunately exposure to high oxygen levels can cause retinal damage and permanent blindness. Not so much adults however. The physician offices, urgent cares and ERs where I live (Minnesota) routinely perform pulse oximetry on all patients regardless of the reason for being there. Mild hypoxemia is noticeable with exertion. Travel to Denver, altitude one mile, and go for a run. You will feel immediately that you aren’t able to exercise normally. You don’t need a pulse oximeter to walk up a few flights of stairs. Cheaper too.

  9. Ooh, oximeters! A fresh new way hypochondriacs can indulge their mental illness.

    #CoronaHoax

    • Agree: GalenMD, Buzz Mohawk
    • Replies: @Jack D
    It's the opposite of hypochondria - oximeter says I am getting plenty of oxygen. My "Covid" /cold is therefore not serious and I don't need to go to the hospital.
    , @Bleuteaux
    Our entire way of life is now designed to placate the psychoses of the mentally ill. Apparently, they can't just sit at home by themselves. They need to make the entire world as miserable as they are.
    , @Inquiring Mind
    Great job, iSteve. Now there is going to be a "run" on oximeters.
    , @The Alarmist

    Ooh, oximeters! A fresh new way hypochondriacs can indulge their mental illness.

     

    The Apple health app is an OCD hypochondriach's dream come true. Naturally, you can record your PulseOx and a hundred other things there, and dowload the data to entertain your doc. Who knows, it might become a required "tool" for our Freedumb Passports™.
    , @Jonathan Mason

    Ooh, oximeters! A fresh new way hypochondriacs can indulge their mental illness.
     
    Actually pulse oximeters are now standard equipment in any health care setting and routinely used as a part of the vital signs (Blood Pressure, Pulse, Respiration Rate, Temperature, and O2 Saturation) for every visit to a doctor.

    Back in the eighties we had fund-raising drives to buy pulse oximeters for the recovery room of my local hospital after a young boy died after having his tonsils removed, but they are much cheaper now. I believe I paid about $12 for mine 2-3 years ago on Amazon.

    If you think you are having corona virus symptoms and you are 70 or over, and your O2 sat measurement is less than 94%, then you should definitely seek medical help. Prolonged lowered O2 saturation below 90% can lead to damage to other organs such as the heart and kidneys, or mental confusion--and you really do not want to be on a ventilator plus kidney dialysis.

    (The fingertip machines tend to have a margin of error of about 3% either way, so it is best to be on the safe side.)
    , @moshe
    I agree that Steve's Command is likely to cause more harm than good but I didn't click the "agree" button because I think you owe him an apology for the schoolyard dirty insult you wrote yesterday or so.

    But yes, Steve does appear to have succumbed to Covid Fear. Then again, FEAR is probably the strongest human impulse after EAT, so we should probably cut each other some slack.

    As an aside, I mentioned at the start of the Covid Panic and I'll mention again that even though I am not a devotee of the new religion as Steve seems to be, I find that religion generally does people good and also makes them better neighbors and members of society so I don't mind Steve's move into this Faith.

    Out of curiosity, am I the only one here who rehards Quarantinism they way I regard Mormonism? As a religion whose precepts are hard to believe but whose practices may have an overall beneficial effect.

    Every generation needs its Jubilee year when it Rethinks Everything.

    In general that Jubilee year was brought about after the death of millions and millions of young people at the literal hands of other young people. OUR generation's Shake&Stir is brought about by young people willing to forgo sex so that their grandparents can stay alive.

    Yes, it is based upon Much Stupidity but all in all, Quarantinism is probably a "two steps forward one step back" religious movement that will further civilization and humanism over the long term. It took a long time to see how Monotheism did that (during which time Monotheists were happy to kill you for explaining it to them) but it did. Quarantinism will probably have a different name and will take into account many other factors. It is likely a redirection of the good impulses that caused so many young people to really really care about scary trannies they never knew into caring about loving grannies they always did.

    I remain undecided about this generation's still evolving new religion but so far I prefer it to the previous attempts even as I (not being a believer) flout its practices while mocking its precepts.

  10. “The epidemiologists have only interpreted the Infection Fatality Rate, in various ways. The point, however, is to change it.”

    This is what I come here for. Excellent stuff, puts a smile on the face.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theses_on_Feuerbach#Uses_of_the_text

    • Replies: @Cortes
    Beat me to it!
  11. @Steve Sailer
    Normally, you really don't want ER doctors to suffer paralysis through analysis.

    It takes awhile to figure new things out, and the people who are good at reacting decisively to old problems aren't always the best at Dr. House-style analyses of new problems.

    Normally, you really don’t want ER doctors to suffer paralysis through analysis. It takes awhile to figure new things out, and the people who are good at reacting decisively to old problems aren’t always the best at Dr. House-style analyses of new problems.

    The explosion of both Asians and women in the medical field isn’t going to help with outside-the-box thinking. That’s what you get when you hire people who have follower mentalities.

    • Agree: Meretricious
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Football players sometimes become ER docs: football players are trained to listen to their coaches on the sidelines and then make fast decisions on the field.

    It's a different skill set than coming up with new solution to a novel problem, but it's a pretty useful skill set if you are in cardiac arrest or whatever.

  12. GM or Boeing better switch over to making these before governors start griping about a tragic shortage

  13. @peterike

    Normally, you really don’t want ER doctors to suffer paralysis through analysis. It takes awhile to figure new things out, and the people who are good at reacting decisively to old problems aren’t always the best at Dr. House-style analyses of new problems.
     
    The explosion of both Asians and women in the medical field isn't going to help with outside-the-box thinking. That's what you get when you hire people who have follower mentalities.

    Football players sometimes become ER docs: football players are trained to listen to their coaches on the sidelines and then make fast decisions on the field.

    It’s a different skill set than coming up with new solution to a novel problem, but it’s a pretty useful skill set if you are in cardiac arrest or whatever.

    • Agree: Polynikes
    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    It’s a different skill set than coming up with new solution to a novel problem, but it’s a pretty useful skill set if you are in cardiac arrest or whatever.
     
    If you are in cardiac arrest, you will not be effective as an ER doctor, no matter what your skill set.
    , @Anon55uu
    This reminded me of something on here a while back: are the defensive players who have the headset in their helmets any different in ethnic background to defensive players generally?

    There’s not much easy to find online about this, but it seems not. Some fit a “leader” profile, but others don’t and look like they’re just “whoever the middle linebacker is” even if he doesn’t play every snap.

    One who did fit the expected type was Luke Kuechley who just retired at 28.
    , @Paul Jolliffe
    Steve Sailer wrote:

    "Football players sometimes become ER docs: football players are trained to listen to their coaches on the sidelines and then make fast decisions on the field."

    Yes, indeed.

    Steve, your points match up perfectly with this article about former UM star defensive end turned ER doc, Chris Hutchinson at Royal Oak Beaumont Hospital (Metro Detroit.)

    “It’s just what you do. You’ve got to do it. It’s part of the job. I’ve got to do my job. I can’t not come to work. Somebody’s got to do this, and this is my role here. Put your mask on and have at it. Is it fun? Absolutely not, but somebody has to do it.”

    By any chance, were you looking at this article?

    https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/college/university-michigan/2020/03/25/this-my-job-er-doctor-ex-wolverine-chris-hutchinson-front-lines-covid-19-battle/5077980002/
  14. Prices in Europe seem to have gone up almost 200% since the beginning of March when me and my sister independently bought 3 oximeters for our parents.

    There has been a general 50-60% price hike on many electronics goods on Ebay. If you think you’ve found a bargain, they might suddenly realize they are “out of stock” and cancel your order. Happened to me twice.

    • Replies: @JMcG
    I picked one up from Sporty’s pilot shop a few weeks ago for 32.00. Might be worth checking out aviation suppliers.
  15. There will be a run on pulse oximeters.

    Many people have blood pressure cuffs. Is it possible to track BP and heart rate instead? Would they noticeably increase as blood oxygen levels fall?

    Of course, getting people to use BP cuffs properly is a problem. Natural test variability because of that may overwhelm a trend, but assuming you know how to properly use one….

    • Replies: @Jack D
    Is it possible to track BP and heart rate instead?

    No.
    , @Chrisnonymous
    Some smart phones can be used as a pulse oximeter.
  16. Let me guess. They are all made in China?

  17. @Alice
    the reason ER docs intubate and put people on ventilators is because that's what they do. It was never because it was the correct treatment for THIS illness, but ER docs are not trained to think about root causes nor about downstream effects. They think sbout the tools to keep you alive right now. So if they see you aren't breathing properly and are afraid you'll die in their ER, they put you in a ventilator. Never mind the cause of the breathing troubles or possible treatments.

    > the reason ER docs intubate and put people on ventilators is because that’s what they do.

    Alice, are you speaking from personal experience, or do you have an article or opinion piece in mind? What you write does not match what I’ve seen, or the attitudes of the US ER docs who I know. Instead, these folks are intensely interested in understanding the disease process and adapting their procedures to make them more effective.

    This is not to say that they are “doing the right things,” as those things will become known with hindsight. But AFAICT it isn’t monkey-see monkey-do.

  18. Anonymous[292] • Disclaimer says:

    Wow, this makes a lot of sense. I read several news stories about people in the medical field, nurses, etc. who were sick at home COVID and then found dead a few days later. I was baffled how they could let themselves get so sick without calling for help but I think this explains the phenomenon. I am an ER doctor in an area fortunate enough to be area not hard hit by COVID (not yet at least). I bought a pulse oximeter in early March in the anticipation that I would get sick. Then a few weeks later I read that some people were exhibiting frightening low oxygen sats but saying they did not feel short of breath. I read some hospital systems who were diagnosing people with COVID who were not sick enough to require hospitalization were discharging patients with pulse oximeters to monitor their sats at home. I thought I should buy ten to give out to patients I would be sending home. I looked again on Amazon and the brand I bought was sold out until May and the ones now on Amazon appear to be new listings and more expensive, that combo making them seem a little sketchy to me. I bought one at a somewhat reasonable price from a local scrub shop and held onto it for a few weeks until I had my first patient last night that I was concerned for COVID, but well enough to send home. You can probably find them at medical supply stores, drug stores and scrub shops, but please only buy one, otherwise we are quickly going to run into the hand sanitizer/toilet paper hoarding problem.

  19. @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    Ooh, oximeters! A fresh new way hypochondriacs can indulge their mental illness.

    #CoronaHoax

    It’s the opposite of hypochondria – oximeter says I am getting plenty of oxygen. My “Covid” /cold is therefore not serious and I don’t need to go to the hospital.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    It’s the opposite of hypochondria – oximeter says I am getting plenty of oxygen. My “Covid” /cold is therefore not serious and I don’t need to go to the hospital.
     
    What is a good Oximeter brand?
    , @The Alarmist
    I dunno ... when my PulseOx drops below 98, I get nervous ...
  20. @anonanonanon
    There will be a run on pulse oximeters.

    Many people have blood pressure cuffs. Is it possible to track BP and heart rate instead? Would they noticeably increase as blood oxygen levels fall?

    Of course, getting people to use BP cuffs properly is a problem. Natural test variability because of that may overwhelm a trend, but assuming you know how to properly use one....

    Is it possible to track BP and heart rate instead?

    No.

  21. @Alice
    the reason ER docs intubate and put people on ventilators is because that's what they do. It was never because it was the correct treatment for THIS illness, but ER docs are not trained to think about root causes nor about downstream effects. They think sbout the tools to keep you alive right now. So if they see you aren't breathing properly and are afraid you'll die in their ER, they put you in a ventilator. Never mind the cause of the breathing troubles or possible treatments.

    I don’ think that they would intubate you in the ER unless you came in not breathing at all. Normally they would send you to the ICU and the ICU docs would make the decision to intubate.

    At the beginning of this epidemic they assumed that Covid was like other respiratory diseases and they would need lots and lots of ventilators which would outrun the supply (even now they are working furiously on building ventilators that they will never use). It’s only thru experience that they have now realized that in many or most cases it’s better not to intubate for Covid. In any novel disease it take a while to hit upon the best treatment plan. Unfortunately, in the interim many people die from having received the wrong treatment. Medicine inches forward one corpse at a time.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    If you came in "not breathing" the paramedics would probably have intubated you. The ED intubates people who are breathing but altered, appear to be fatiguing, having intractable seizures etc. Classically a score of less than 8 on this scale ("Glasgow Coma Score") means you should be intubated:

    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/3f/ff/56/3fff563c0fed08df80399703536aa65c.jpg

    , @Chrisnonymous
    I think American doctors were misled by the Chinese and Italian experiences. Seeing people were on vents in the news predisposed them to think vents were the solution.
  22. @Anon
    This is another thing, like masks, that a month ago when they were $15 or $20 on Amazon, delivered next day. the authorities told us we didn't need, wasn't really reliable, etc.

    I bought a handful of them and doled them out to family and friends as the pandemic kicked off. Youtube pandemic star Dr. John Campbell has a video on how to use them.

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    By the way, he's not a doctor, he's a nurse with a EdD degree or something. Some nurses who get PhDs or EdDs demand to be called "doctor". They know what they are doing. (Not sure Campbell refers to himself like that though.)
  23. “… so they don’t go to the emergency room until they’ve already suffered severe lung damage.”

    What can the emergency room do to prevent you from getting severe lung damage?

    • Replies: @James B. Shearer
    "What can the emergency room do to prevent you from getting severe lung damage?"

    Okay, to answer my own question, the full article claims that it is easier on the lungs to get supplemental oxygen rather than just to breathe harder. Not totally convinced, I suspect a lot of people will get better on their own even without oxygen.
  24. I have one of these on order, because, you know, the whole world has stopped and nobody is cutting hair any more:

    Jeff Bezos says he’ll get it to me sometime in the middle of May. He doesn’t care, because he is a skinhead.

    If I find myself getting tired buzzing my head, I will take that as a sign that I am not getting enough oxygen, and I will get myself to an ER so they can kill me with a ventilator.

    • LOL: Old Prude, Kronos
    • Replies: @Kronos
    Do you think you’d be able to perform an actual “Buzz Mohawk” hairstyle on yourself?

    Some of these quarantine haircut memes are hilarious!

    https://ifunny.co/fun/G6GHTDOa7?s=cl

    https://imageproxy.ifunny.co/crop:x-20,resize:320x,crop:x800,quality:90x75/images/8db129b4d438aedac0b821762084e763deec804c154e4728aaff6f3629c0f84c_1.jpg

  25. Don’t send people to amazon to buy cheap Chinese junk. You can go to another store to buy cheap Chinese junk.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Don’t send people to [A]mazon to buy cheap Chinese junk.
     
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=d7CZmh5Bhsw
  26. @Esso
    Prices in Europe seem to have gone up almost 200% since the beginning of March when me and my sister independently bought 3 oximeters for our parents.

    There has been a general 50-60% price hike on many electronics goods on Ebay. If you think you've found a bargain, they might suddenly realize they are "out of stock" and cancel your order. Happened to me twice.

    I picked one up from Sporty’s pilot shop a few weeks ago for 32.00. Might be worth checking out aviation suppliers.

  27. > Amazon sells fingertip pulse oximeters for around $50, with delivery times of one to two weeks. If you don’t have one, buy one now. It could save a loved one’s life.

    For those of us who were wise to what was coming and prepared ahead of time, Amazon sold pulse ox devices in February for $20 and with Prime 2-day shipping

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    I paid $18.95 for one on March 8.
    , @Jack D
    You can still get them from US sellers on Ebay for under $30 with free delivery in a few days. (Amazon Prime is not two days anymore - for a lot of things, MUCH longer). Some of the cheapest ebay sellers are new with little feedback but if you scroll down a little you can find ones with more feedback.

    All of the cheap oximeters seem to be "China" brand. I have no idea how accurate they are or how long they last - QC on Chinese gizmos is not very good so sometimes if you get "a good one" it is pretty good and if you get "a bad one" it's awful, even if they are two samples of the same device.
    , @Anonymous

    For those of us who were wise to what was coming and prepared ahead of time, Amazon sold pulse ox devices in February for $20 and with Prime 2-day shipping
     
    What is a good brand?
    , @Cloudswrest
    I bought one at Target in early March for about $20.
  28. if you get to the hospital when pneumonia first sets in

    What is the standard treatment of viral infections like the flu? It certainly is not giving antibiotics as a prophylaxis against pneumonia. I’ve had more than one doctor tell me come back in a week, it’s just a virus and a) anti-biotics don’t work against a virus and b) we’re afraid of creating antibiotic resistant diseases. I wonder how many people die from the secondayr infection as a result of this standard non-treatment every year? Perhaps we need a multi year long randomized control study. Fauci’s replacement could use a secure 38 year career doing things like that.

    This a related to Endocarditis, but will give you the gist of the idea.
    https://professional.heart.org/professional/ScienceNews/UCM_464547_Antimicrobial-Prophylaxis-for-the-Prevention-of-Infective-Endocarditis.jsp

    • Agree: Semperluctor
    • Replies: @Jack D

    I wonder how many people die from the secondayr infection as a result of this standard non-treatment every year?
     
    I wonder how many people would die if all of our antibiotics became ineffective? This is the balance that doctors are trying to maintain. You as an individual are better off taking the antibiotics even if unnecessary but if EVERYONE takes unnecessary antibiotics then we are all worse off.
  29. @techanon
    > Amazon sells fingertip pulse oximeters for around $50, with delivery times of one to two weeks. If you don’t have one, buy one now. It could save a loved one’s life.

    For those of us who were wise to what was coming and prepared ahead of time, Amazon sold pulse ox devices in February for $20 and with Prime 2-day shipping

    I paid $18.95 for one on March 8.

    • Replies: @gman
    Just bought two today at CVS; they were $49.99 (CVS is a bit more expensive).
    , @Thoughts
    Why didn't you tell us?
  30. @Steve Sailer
    Thanks.

    A few weeks ago, there was the video from the New York doctor arguing that intubation was being overused and comparing it to Mt. Everest climbers' altitude sickness. This might be an even better analogy.

    I saw that video right when it came out, and I was heartened that this youngish doctor had not only challenged the orthodox method of treatment, but then put in on a video for all to see. That seems like a possible career-ender, and I would love to hear the stories of when/how he brought this up with his colleagues and/or the head of the ER at the hospital where he was working. Ironically, I have a friend of a friend who is an ER doc at that same hospital. I will be interested in hearing about this when I next see him, which is usually in the summer.

  31. Apparently early use of oxygen is why Germany and Russia have lower death rates, although lower number of ethnic minorities and fat people probably helps too.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    Most Russian men are dead before the age that Western men die of Covid. Russia is not full of giant nursing homes filled with the senile where Covid can run rampant. Russian men have the good sense to drink and smoke themselves to death long before it gets to that point.
    , @prosa123
    If we can actually trust the Russian statistics.
    , @Hippopotamusdrome


    Apparently early use of oxygen is why Germany and Russia have lower death rates

     

    Yea... that's the ticket!
  32. @YetAnotherAnon
    "The epidemiologists have only interpreted the Infection Fatality Rate, in various ways. The point, however, is to change it."

    This is what I come here for. Excellent stuff, puts a smile on the face.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theses_on_Feuerbach#Uses_of_the_text

    Beat me to it!

  33. I have no comment on this, but if you follow the link you get to a whole bunch of charts, and everyone loves charts.

    • Replies: @res
    Thanks! That is some impressive work. It looks like it could be incredibly useful for both understanding and managing the response to countermeasures. Let's take a closer look.

    First, a direct link to the charts: https://rt.live/
    Those are currently limited to looking back to March 15th. For most states that is not an issue, but more later.

    This blog post has a detailed discussion of Rt and includes graphs for each state from 3/1 to 4/11.
    http://systrom.com/blog/the-metric-we-need-to-manage-covid-19/
    He also includes some additional analyses. Some interesting points.

    Some states are showing a double dip in early March (see 50 state graphic in blog post). New York is particularly dramatic.

    http://systrom.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/image-2.png

    I wonder if that is real or some kind of statistical artifact. I think it would be helpful to overlay information about various countermeasures by date (e.g. the four shown in these state pages: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york ) on these plots to give some idea of cause and effect (similar to what some of the Kinsa blog posts did).

    He also looks at Rt by state and lockdown status. This version sorts by the high end of the HDI (basically a confidence interval) and he uses it as an argument that non-lockdown states might want to think about this.

    http://systrom.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/image-5.png

    This gives the gory details of his calculations.
    https://github.com/k-sys/covid-19/blob/master/Realtime%20R0.ipynb

  34. @Steve Sailer
    I paid $18.95 for one on March 8.

    Just bought two today at CVS; they were $49.99 (CVS is a bit more expensive).

  35. @Louis Renault

    if you get to the hospital when pneumonia first sets in
     
    What is the standard treatment of viral infections like the flu? It certainly is not giving antibiotics as a prophylaxis against pneumonia. I've had more than one doctor tell me come back in a week, it's just a virus and a) anti-biotics don't work against a virus and b) we're afraid of creating antibiotic resistant diseases. I wonder how many people die from the secondayr infection as a result of this standard non-treatment every year? Perhaps we need a multi year long randomized control study. Fauci's replacement could use a secure 38 year career doing things like that.

    This a related to Endocarditis, but will give you the gist of the idea.
    https://professional.heart.org/professional/ScienceNews/UCM_464547_Antimicrobial-Prophylaxis-for-the-Prevention-of-Infective-Endocarditis.jsp

    I wonder how many people die from the secondayr infection as a result of this standard non-treatment every year?

    I wonder how many people would die if all of our antibiotics became ineffective? This is the balance that doctors are trying to maintain. You as an individual are better off taking the antibiotics even if unnecessary but if EVERYONE takes unnecessary antibiotics then we are all worse off.

    • Replies: @Louis Renault

    if EVERYONE takes unnecessary antibiotics
     
    "Necessary use " does that need a test to ensure "when pneumonia first sets in" has actually occured? Does this pandemic mean we can't do it JUST THIS YEAR or will showing up to the ER after waiting a week not kill somebody this year? Does it take a medical professional to figure that out since nobody who has had pneumonia can tell what the signs are without a test? Just curious, but I am certainly glad we curtail "unnecessary tests" to keep the medical costs down. BTW does that 'everyone' include all those other people on the planet, or just those of us here in the US? 'cause I don't think they handle anti-biotics quite the same in the 3rd world. I don't think they use them extensively in the cattle and poultry industry either, but certainly that can't be a source of antibiotic resistance developing.
  36. @anon

    It would be nice if the Prime Minister’s doctors would explain how exactly they treated the world’s most famous CV survivor.
     
    Am I the only one who thinks he didn't really have it? Was there any actual evidence?

    I mean, one minute he's public enemy number one because he fucked up the pandemic response - but now he's sympathetic again because he's a victim.

    Same with JUSTin’s wife, Tom “HIV” Hanks, Idris “007” Elba, etc etc.

    We must all keep up our morale! Remember the boys fighting on the Malabar front!

    Don’t you realize that every time you say “I don’t believe in COVID” an immigrant’s lungs fills with fluid? Please clap.

  37. @LondonBob
    Apparently early use of oxygen is why Germany and Russia have lower death rates, although lower number of ethnic minorities and fat people probably helps too.

    https://twitter.com/OldTownClyde/status/1252548846091001857?s=20

    Most Russian men are dead before the age that Western men die of Covid. Russia is not full of giant nursing homes filled with the senile where Covid can run rampant. Russian men have the good sense to drink and smoke themselves to death long before it gets to that point.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    About 15% of the male population of Russia is over 60, v. 20% in the U.S. That doesn't explain the differences in mortality rates from the Wuhan virus.
    , @peterike

    Russian men have the good sense to drink and smoke themselves to death long before it gets to that point.
     
    He said, gleefully.
    , @Stephen Dodge
    Jack D is right.

    And I like Russians.

    They don't smoke the right way, though, you should smoke like Arnold, only good stogies, and only one a day after your partying years are over. Russian men smoke like fiends because the winter is so long.
  38. anonymous[402] • Disclaimer says:

    What if you don’t have a pulse oximeter?

    Heard a doctor on a podcast that in case you do not have a pulse oximeter you can first attempt to reassure oneself and lower one’s stress levels by practicing 4-7-8 breathing exercises or Pranayama for several minutes.

    So as a first step see if you can at least do this.

    Then having hopefully ruled out anxiety or panic the doctor also said if you can not then hold your breath for at least 30 seconds or even better a minute, and/or have a temperature doing a pulse oximeter check is the next step.

    Anyone who does yoga, is probably familiar with Pranayama breathing techniques. If you do HIIT (High Intensity Interval Training) exercise routines the between sets deep breathing breaks are pretty similar.

    Ok, you can not do controlled 4-7-8 breathing or hold your breath so you maybe demonstrating deeper issues. So what do you do if can not see a doctor right away

    I am sure you can go to most local pharmacies and they can do a quick pulse oximeter check for you even if they are current out of stock of meters for purchase.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Thanks.

    Byt he way, some Samsung smartphones have built in oximeters. Look in the Samsung Health app.

  39. @PiltdownMan
    The article explains that


    The coronavirus attacks lung cells that make surfactant. This substance helps keep the air sacs in the lungs stay open between breaths and is critical to normal lung function. As the inflammation from Covid pneumonia starts, it causes the air sacs to collapse, and oxygen levels fall. Yet the lungs initially remain “compliant,” not yet stiff or heavy with fluid. This means patients can still expel carbon dioxide — and without a buildup of carbon dioxide, patients do not feel short of breath.

    Patients compensate for the low oxygen in their blood by breathing faster and deeper — and this happens without their realizing it.

     
    Free divers, who go diving in water without scuba gear, are warned against hyperventilating in advance precisely because of this phenomenon in a more extreme form.

    Hyperventilating expels CO2 from the bloodstream. A hyperventilated diver may not feel the need to surface, even as he depletes oxygen to the point of unconsciousness, because the buildup of CO2 lags the depletion of oxygen, and he doesn't feel the need to surface and gasp for air.

    Wikipedia has a nice couple of graphs explaining the phenomenon.

    https://i.imgur.com/7h5w5Sv.jpg

    https://i.imgur.com/JlGF4sU.jpg


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freediving_blackout#Shallow_water_blackout

    A prediction of your model is that (as shown in the Wiki free-dive graphs), blood CO2 will drop long before blood O2 drops in pre-crisis Covid-19 patients. And that this pattern is different from the “standard” about-to-enter-into-respiratory-distress syndromes.

    Has anybody published or commented on this, either way?

    • Replies: @PiltdownMan
    Not to my knowledge. Not my model, exactly, but the similarities between the phenomenon described in the doctor's article, and what I knew of free-diving and hyperventilation, were striking, so I figured I'd highlight them.
  40. HA says:

    “Amazon sells fingertip pulse oximeters for around $50, with delivery times of one to two weeks. If you don’t have one, buy one now. It could save a loved one’s life.”

    There’s an iPhone (and presumably Android) app for that too (sorry if that is already mentioned in the article — I don’t subscribe to the NYT).

    https://www.engadget.com/2014-02-06-daily-app-digidoc-pulse-oximeter-tries-to-measure-your-heart-ra.html

    I don’t know how the app accuracy compares to the fingertip version. The review notes some issues, so please read it before buying, but I suspect the fingertip device might not be all that accurate, either.

  41. @techanon
    > Amazon sells fingertip pulse oximeters for around $50, with delivery times of one to two weeks. If you don’t have one, buy one now. It could save a loved one’s life.

    For those of us who were wise to what was coming and prepared ahead of time, Amazon sold pulse ox devices in February for $20 and with Prime 2-day shipping

    You can still get them from US sellers on Ebay for under $30 with free delivery in a few days. (Amazon Prime is not two days anymore – for a lot of things, MUCH longer). Some of the cheapest ebay sellers are new with little feedback but if you scroll down a little you can find ones with more feedback.

    All of the cheap oximeters seem to be “China” brand. I have no idea how accurate they are or how long they last – QC on Chinese gizmos is not very good so sometimes if you get “a good one” it is pretty good and if you get “a bad one” it’s awful, even if they are two samples of the same device.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason

    All of the cheap oximeters seem to be “China” brand. I have no idea how accurate they are or how long they last
     
    It is difficult to know what the quality of this kind of thing is when well-known brands with fancy packaging will tend to inflate their prices to give the impression that they have a premium product, when the insides very likely contain exactly the same integrated circuit chips as the cheap ones.

    You can get them cheap enough on Ali Express, except that China is now on the naughty step. (Some are priced at lots of 100, but others can be bought as a single item.)

    https://www.alibaba.com/trade/search?fsb=y&IndexArea=product_en&CatId=&SearchText=pulse+oximeter
    , @J1234
    I ordered two from eBay today in the price range you mentioned. I bought two because 1) I want my wife and I to each have our own for practical reasons and 2) I want to check them against each other to get an idea of actual accuracy.

    I had two inexpensive but decent Bosch oil pressure gauges that I could compare with each other when one of them registered an unusually high pressure reading in one of my cars. The second gauge seemed to confirm that the initial reading (and gauge) was correct.

    The stated accuracy on the oximeter is + or - two points in the 70% and over range. Not stellar, but not bad for a home unit that's being used to get a general idea. Oh yes, it had free shipping, like you said. Thanks to Steve Sailer for the suggestion.

    , @Anonymous
    <>
    You can still get them from US sellers on Ebay for under $30 with free delivery in a few days. (Amazon Prime is not two days anymore – for a lot of things, MUCH longer).
    <>

    Am I the only one chary about purchasing anything off Amazon at this point?

    Between the purported unsafe working conditions, the imminent/ongoing strikes, and the shipping delays, Amazon is not the place from which I would purchase anything mission-critical. Perhaps it's just me?
  42. @anonymous
    What if you don't have a pulse oximeter?

    Heard a doctor on a podcast that in case you do not have a pulse oximeter you can first attempt to reassure oneself and lower one's stress levels by practicing 4-7-8 breathing exercises or Pranayama for several minutes.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=737vA-okV5E
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MJ7VSirHuQA

    So as a first step see if you can at least do this.

    Then having hopefully ruled out anxiety or panic the doctor also said if you can not then hold your breath for at least 30 seconds or even better a minute, and/or have a temperature doing a pulse oximeter check is the next step.

    Anyone who does yoga, is probably familiar with Pranayama breathing techniques. If you do HIIT (High Intensity Interval Training) exercise routines the between sets deep breathing breaks are pretty similar.

    Ok, you can not do controlled 4-7-8 breathing or hold your breath so you maybe demonstrating deeper issues. So what do you do if can not see a doctor right away

    I am sure you can go to most local pharmacies and they can do a quick pulse oximeter check for you even if they are current out of stock of meters for purchase.

    Thanks.

    Byt he way, some Samsung smartphones have built in oximeters. Look in the Samsung Health app.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    They measure your blood oxidation when you do the stress test, it is not a standalone option as it was on older versions of the Samsung app. I score the lowest possible for level of stress.
    , @Deckin
    There's an iPhone app too--4.99
    , @anonymous
    Forgot to mention.

    I deliver food to the local collar county hospital of Indianapolis. I am sure most hospitals have similar set ups. In the lobby the staff have stand off infrared thermometers and/or temporal artery thermometers and pulse oximeters. I am sure if you were in dire need of simply a sanity check you could get one.

    The lobby staff appears bored out there minds. I am sure they would love to help.
  43. Anonymous[403] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jack D
    It's the opposite of hypochondria - oximeter says I am getting plenty of oxygen. My "Covid" /cold is therefore not serious and I don't need to go to the hospital.

    It’s the opposite of hypochondria – oximeter says I am getting plenty of oxygen. My “Covid” /cold is therefore not serious and I don’t need to go to the hospital.

    What is a good Oximeter brand?

  44. Anonymous[403] • Disclaimer says:
    @techanon
    > Amazon sells fingertip pulse oximeters for around $50, with delivery times of one to two weeks. If you don’t have one, buy one now. It could save a loved one’s life.

    For those of us who were wise to what was coming and prepared ahead of time, Amazon sold pulse ox devices in February for $20 and with Prime 2-day shipping

    For those of us who were wise to what was coming and prepared ahead of time, Amazon sold pulse ox devices in February for $20 and with Prime 2-day shipping

    What is a good brand?

  45. Anonymous[321] • Disclaimer says:

    No guesses to where these devices are made, and who will profit handsomely from the massive international run to purchase them.

  46. @Jack D
    Most Russian men are dead before the age that Western men die of Covid. Russia is not full of giant nursing homes filled with the senile where Covid can run rampant. Russian men have the good sense to drink and smoke themselves to death long before it gets to that point.

    About 15% of the male population of Russia is over 60, v. 20% in the U.S. That doesn’t explain the differences in mortality rates from the Wuhan virus.

  47. Anonymous[321] • Disclaimer says:

    Perhaps a stupid question, but is it possible to force in by aerosol linked to intubated oxygen some sort of artificial surfactant into the sufferer’s lungs.

  48. @James B. Shearer
    "... so they don’t go to the emergency room until they’ve already suffered severe lung damage."

    What can the emergency room do to prevent you from getting severe lung damage?

    “What can the emergency room do to prevent you from getting severe lung damage?”

    Okay, to answer my own question, the full article claims that it is easier on the lungs to get supplemental oxygen rather than just to breathe harder. Not totally convinced, I suspect a lot of people will get better on their own even without oxygen.

  49. Pulse oximeter = Expel moisture.

  50. @techanon
    > Amazon sells fingertip pulse oximeters for around $50, with delivery times of one to two weeks. If you don’t have one, buy one now. It could save a loved one’s life.

    For those of us who were wise to what was coming and prepared ahead of time, Amazon sold pulse ox devices in February for $20 and with Prime 2-day shipping

    I bought one at Target in early March for about $20.

    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob
    CVS has no oximeters online or in local stores. Walgreens has none online, but several in stores, one of which is $39 for the first one, then 50% off on the second one.

    https://www.walgreens.com/store/c/walgreens-fingertip-pulse-oximeter/ID=prod6089451-product

    But, using the invaluable information available here, I just checked mine on my Samsung phone (google "Samsung phone oximeter") and got a 95%.

    Many thanks to whoever pointed that out.
  51. @Steve Sailer
    Thanks.

    Byt he way, some Samsung smartphones have built in oximeters. Look in the Samsung Health app.

    They measure your blood oxidation when you do the stress test, it is not a standalone option as it was on older versions of the Samsung app. I score the lowest possible for level of stress.

    • Replies: @Bill Jones
    "I score the lowest possible for level of stress."

    The technical term is "Dead"
  52. One caveat–as anyone who works in healthcare can tell you, if you put on a pulse oximeter and it’s not getting a good signal, it will often basically become a random number generator. So you may have a lot of false positives with this.

    Bad signals take a bit of expertise to troubleshoot, it can be you don’t have it on properly, or your hands are extremely cold and have poor circulation, or you are wearing nail polish (even clear nail polish can screw up the signal because it uses infrared as well as visible), or you put it on too large a finger or too small a finger. Anesthesiologists are always screwing with these things during cases, probably more than any other monitor, and they have the really high end ones. So you might get a lot of false positives with this.

    However if you feel sick or you know you have coronavirus and you are weighing whether to go in to the hospital, the false positives are probably worth it.

    Second aside: respiratory phys is interesting–you need your lungs for two things, to eliminate carbon dioxide and absorb oxygen, but the drive to breathe is solely from carbon dioxide levels. The feeling of suffocation or shortness of breath is caused by CO2 alone (specifically, high CO2). If you breathe an atmosphere of pure nitrogen you will feel perfectly fine for a few seconds, then immediately die. On the other hand an atmosphere of 10% CO2 and 20% oxygen will make you feel like you are suffocating, possibly induce a panic attack, but nevertheless could probably be breathed indefinitely.

    Third aside: if the best treatment for this turns out to be oxygenation, that is very, very good news. Because the atmosphere is only 20% oxygen is pretty easy to improve oxygenation, just crank that up to 100% oxygen and now each breath delivers five times as much oxygen. This is technically easy to do and doesn’t require intubation or a ventilator. A 4 dollar non-rebreathing facemask can get you well above 50% and basically anybody can use it. Heck people with COPD spend years with nasal cannulae and oxygen generators managing their disease at home.

    Ventilators are required primarily for CO2 elimination (although they also help with oxygenation). While it’s easy to increase the oxygen that is inhaled with simple passive measures like facemasks, to get rid of more CO2, you just have to breathe, no other option, so if the patient can’t do it you need the vent, with all the complexities and risks associated with that.

    • Thanks: Jim Don Bob
    • Replies: @ic1000
    > One caveat–as anyone who works in healthcare can tell you, if you put on a pulse oximeter and it’s not getting a good signal, it will often basically become a random number generator. So you may have a lot of false positives with this.

    This post made me dig out my Brand X Walgreen's pulseox from the back of the drawer. Yep, still works. The trustworthiness question can be addressed by taking a reading, while you are healthy. It may take a few dozen seconds, but the device should give a sensible pulse rate, and a stable reading of 98% to 100% for oxygen saturation. If a few baseline sessions agree in this way, then it's likely that a reading in the low nineties or eighties of respiratory-distressed-you is real, and should be discussed with your doctor.
    , @RohadtMagyar

    Because the atmosphere is only 20% oxygen is pretty easy to improve oxygenation, just crank that up to 100% oxygen and now each breath delivers five times as much oxygen.
     
    That's. Not. How. It. Works. In fact, that is exactly how people die.

    You should look up Oxygen Toxicity and the Bohr Effect.
  53. If you breathe an atmosphere of pure nitrogen you will feel perfectly fine for a few seconds, then immediately die

    Carbon Monoxide does it much better.

  54. @Jack D
    Most Russian men are dead before the age that Western men die of Covid. Russia is not full of giant nursing homes filled with the senile where Covid can run rampant. Russian men have the good sense to drink and smoke themselves to death long before it gets to that point.

    Russian men have the good sense to drink and smoke themselves to death long before it gets to that point.

    He said, gleefully.

  55. @Steve Sailer
    Thanks.

    Byt he way, some Samsung smartphones have built in oximeters. Look in the Samsung Health app.

    There’s an iPhone app too–4.99

    • Replies: @DPG
    I took a quick look and the most popular one, “Pulse Oximeter,” says it’s for recreation/sport, not medical use. Here’s a scientific source advising against its use:

    https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/question-should-smartphone-apps-be-used-as-oximeters-answer-no/

    Apparently iPhones can’t emit the proper type of light to measure blood.
    , @anoneeey
    Thanks bro. You saved me from buying $50.00 worth of Chinese plastic!
  56. @SimpleSong
    One caveat--as anyone who works in healthcare can tell you, if you put on a pulse oximeter and it's not getting a good signal, it will often basically become a random number generator. So you may have a lot of false positives with this.

    Bad signals take a bit of expertise to troubleshoot, it can be you don't have it on properly, or your hands are extremely cold and have poor circulation, or you are wearing nail polish (even clear nail polish can screw up the signal because it uses infrared as well as visible), or you put it on too large a finger or too small a finger. Anesthesiologists are always screwing with these things during cases, probably more than any other monitor, and they have the really high end ones. So you might get a lot of false positives with this.

    However if you feel sick or you know you have coronavirus and you are weighing whether to go in to the hospital, the false positives are probably worth it.

    Second aside: respiratory phys is interesting--you need your lungs for two things, to eliminate carbon dioxide and absorb oxygen, but the drive to breathe is solely from carbon dioxide levels. The feeling of suffocation or shortness of breath is caused by CO2 alone (specifically, high CO2). If you breathe an atmosphere of pure nitrogen you will feel perfectly fine for a few seconds, then immediately die. On the other hand an atmosphere of 10% CO2 and 20% oxygen will make you feel like you are suffocating, possibly induce a panic attack, but nevertheless could probably be breathed indefinitely.

    Third aside: if the best treatment for this turns out to be oxygenation, that is very, very good news. Because the atmosphere is only 20% oxygen is pretty easy to improve oxygenation, just crank that up to 100% oxygen and now each breath delivers five times as much oxygen. This is technically easy to do and doesn't require intubation or a ventilator. A 4 dollar non-rebreathing facemask can get you well above 50% and basically anybody can use it. Heck people with COPD spend years with nasal cannulae and oxygen generators managing their disease at home.

    Ventilators are required primarily for CO2 elimination (although they also help with oxygenation). While it's easy to increase the oxygen that is inhaled with simple passive measures like facemasks, to get rid of more CO2, you just have to breathe, no other option, so if the patient can't do it you need the vent, with all the complexities and risks associated with that.

    > One caveat–as anyone who works in healthcare can tell you, if you put on a pulse oximeter and it’s not getting a good signal, it will often basically become a random number generator. So you may have a lot of false positives with this.

    This post made me dig out my Brand X Walgreen’s pulseox from the back of the drawer. Yep, still works. The trustworthiness question can be addressed by taking a reading, while you are healthy. It may take a few dozen seconds, but the device should give a sensible pulse rate, and a stable reading of 98% to 100% for oxygen saturation. If a few baseline sessions agree in this way, then it’s likely that a reading in the low nineties or eighties of respiratory-distressed-you is real, and should be discussed with your doctor.

  57. anonymous[402] • Disclaimer says:

    Steve,

    It has been a week.

    It would be worth your follow up commenting on the most promising therapies for treating Covid-19 infections so far.

    There was a lot of news about the repurposed drug therapies in the last week, Hydroxychloroquine + Zinc + Antiboitics , Ivermetcin and various Big Pharma antivirals namely the anti-Ebola drug Remdesivir( lots of hype I suspect because of the huge profits to be made, but very limited supply for now and the foreseeable future).

    What does your HBD network think about these treatments now?

    Plasma therapy is getting lots of press as well but it seems to have huge logistical hurdles.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/hundreds-receive-plasma-from-recovered-coronavirus-patients-in-national-study-11587470778

    I see where Bill Gates and wants in on collecting plasma from Covid-19 patients.
    https://techcrunch.com/2020/04/20/microsoft-built-a-plasma-bot-to-tell-you-if-you-can-donate-plasma-to-help-fight-covid-19/

    UNZ has already posted a really good article on just who should get the bulk of plasma from recovered covid-19 patients. Big Pharma for vaccine research that could be years away if ever, or patients in dire need today for emergency treatment????

    A Killer Enterprise: How One of Big Pharma’s Most Corrupt Companies Plans to Corner the Covid-19 Cure Market
    https://www.unz.com/wwebb/a-killer-enterprise-how-one-of-big-pharmas-most-corrupt-companies-plans-to-corner-the-covid-19-cure-market/

    On April 3, BARDA awarded Emergent Biosolutions $14.5 million for the development of its blood plasma treatment. Though the sum is smaller than other contracts Emergent has received from BARDA in the past, the partnership allows Emergent to overcome its greatest obstacle in developing this product, a massive supply of blood plasma from recovered Covid-19 patients. Thanks to their partnership with BARDA, Emergent will gain access to blood donations made by recovered Covid-19 to public blood centers.

    Emergent’s Dr. Lisa Saward confirmed this in a recent interview with TechCrunch, stating “we are overcoming [the lack of “source material” i.e. blood plasma] with the help of partnerships like that of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority within Health and Human Services, and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases announced earlier this week.”

    However, Emergent’s use of donated plasma to develop its product may prove controversial, since the plasma donated by recovered Covid-19 patients is currently being used as a treatment for seriously ill Covid-19 patients. The use of plasma to treat critical patients began late last month after New York’s state government first authorized its use in such cases, followed by the FDA’s offer to approve its use for critical Covid-19 patients nationwide on a case-by-case basis. Yet, thanks to the BARDA and Emergent partnership, a significant amount of that plasma will instead go towards helping Emergent corner yet another key market.

  58. anonymous[402] • Disclaimer says:
    @Steve Sailer
    Thanks.

    Byt he way, some Samsung smartphones have built in oximeters. Look in the Samsung Health app.

    Forgot to mention.

    I deliver food to the local collar county hospital of Indianapolis. I am sure most hospitals have similar set ups. In the lobby the staff have stand off infrared thermometers and/or temporal artery thermometers and pulse oximeters. I am sure if you were in dire need of simply a sanity check you could get one.

    The lobby staff appears bored out there minds. I am sure they would love to help.

  59. Buy a Pulse Oximeter

    No, Buy Gold, because you are going to pay a terrible price for all this.

    And take physical delivery. You don’t really have it unless you can hold it in your hand. (And it is a pleasure, denser and heavier than most anything else you have ever held. Heavy like lead or tungsten, but prettier, it is a wonder from the periodic table of the elements.)

    • Replies: @PiltdownMan
    https://youtu.be/0JXM0RuD6KI
    https://youtu.be/8dDhO4wS-0k
  60. Sure, sure, a Pulse Oximeter. But what about using a Turbo Encabulator?

    • Replies: @anon
    Here's page 2 of the GE spec sheet, turboencabulator users will need this.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/dc/GE_Turboencabulator_pg_2.jpg


    Be careful not to expose the turboencabulator to excessive DiHydrogen Monoxide. That stuff is dangerous!
  61. I just ordered an oximeter online from Phillips Inc. Currently about $30 plus tax/shipping.

    Also one of those no touch forehead thermometers that all the nurses use now. That’s more like $70. So for about $105 including shipping/tax I’m ready to roll.

    Not sure how long delivery will take though.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Right. You now will have at home the tools to decide if/when you have to go to the ER, so you don't have to go to the ER to find out if you have to go to the ER.
  62. @Jack D

    I wonder how many people die from the secondayr infection as a result of this standard non-treatment every year?
     
    I wonder how many people would die if all of our antibiotics became ineffective? This is the balance that doctors are trying to maintain. You as an individual are better off taking the antibiotics even if unnecessary but if EVERYONE takes unnecessary antibiotics then we are all worse off.

    if EVERYONE takes unnecessary antibiotics

    “Necessary use ” does that need a test to ensure “when pneumonia first sets in” has actually occured? Does this pandemic mean we can’t do it JUST THIS YEAR or will showing up to the ER after waiting a week not kill somebody this year? Does it take a medical professional to figure that out since nobody who has had pneumonia can tell what the signs are without a test? Just curious, but I am certainly glad we curtail “unnecessary tests” to keep the medical costs down. BTW does that ‘everyone’ include all those other people on the planet, or just those of us here in the US? ’cause I don’t think they handle anti-biotics quite the same in the 3rd world. I don’t think they use them extensively in the cattle and poultry industry either, but certainly that can’t be a source of antibiotic resistance developing.

  63. @Muggles
    I just ordered an oximeter online from Phillips Inc. Currently about $30 plus tax/shipping.

    Also one of those no touch forehead thermometers that all the nurses use now. That's more like $70. So for about $105 including shipping/tax I'm ready to roll.

    Not sure how long delivery will take though.

    Right. You now will have at home the tools to decide if/when you have to go to the ER, so you don’t have to go to the ER to find out if you have to go to the ER.

    • Replies: @Mehen
    Sort of OT:

    "Our cross sectional study in both COVID-19 out- and inpatients strongly suggests that current smokers have a very much lower probability of developing symptomatic or severe SARS-CoV-2 infection as compared to the general population."

    https://www.qeios.com/read/article/574
  64. STEVE, Thank you for the heads up regarding the Pulse-Oximeter. Went online, Walmart carries them and so does Walgreens. Called pharmacy at Walmart…”Yes we have them, aisle G-4.” Six miles there, six miles back, $42.00 with the tax. Again, thank you. If I never need it , it won’t be the worse $42 I’ve ever spent.

  65. Those graphs make me wonder how our Plunge for Distance athletes have fared during this pandemic.

    • Replies: @a Newsreader
    A+ iSteve lore.
  66. @peterike
    I have no comment on this, but if you follow the link you get to a whole bunch of charts, and everyone loves charts.

    https://twitter.com/ElonBachman/status/1252327922653937664

    Thanks! That is some impressive work. It looks like it could be incredibly useful for both understanding and managing the response to countermeasures. Let’s take a closer look.

    First, a direct link to the charts: https://rt.live/
    Those are currently limited to looking back to March 15th. For most states that is not an issue, but more later.

    This blog post has a detailed discussion of Rt and includes graphs for each state from 3/1 to 4/11.
    http://systrom.com/blog/the-metric-we-need-to-manage-covid-19/
    He also includes some additional analyses. Some interesting points.

    Some states are showing a double dip in early March (see 50 state graphic in blog post). New York is particularly dramatic.

    I wonder if that is real or some kind of statistical artifact. I think it would be helpful to overlay information about various countermeasures by date (e.g. the four shown in these state pages: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york ) on these plots to give some idea of cause and effect (similar to what some of the Kinsa blog posts did).

    He also looks at Rt by state and lockdown status. This version sorts by the high end of the HDI (basically a confidence interval) and he uses it as an argument that non-lockdown states might want to think about this.

    This gives the gory details of his calculations.
    https://github.com/k-sys/covid-19/blob/master/Realtime%20R0.ipynb

    • Thanks: utu
    • Replies: @utu
    I did not know that one could get such smooth curves of Rt from data that are so noisy. The result must be driven more by the method than by the data. Another method could produce significantly different estimates of Rt. It is common that inverse problems are inherently unstable or ill-posed and they can be solved only when constraints on the class of solutions is imposed. One tries to impose sensible constraints yet to some extent they are always arbitrary. It is good when the constraints are spelled out explicitly. The thing about Bayesian methodology is that the constraints are hidden so one gets a false impression that the solution is unique and kind of natural.

    A related issue is that Rt or Ro from their definition can only be known after the future events happened. Rt is not defined by the past events but by the future events so in principle it can't be retrieved in real time. There will be a lag time after data. In the plot for NY how many data points he had to be able to retrieve the last Rt? The reason the retrieved curves are so smooth is because in this Bayesian methodology there is a hidden interaction between the past and the future which acausal as if solutions were constrained smooth splines with memory.

    Finally, about the time scale and Ro. Ro is a dimensionless number; it is independent of time. You may have two epidemics with the same Ro which have different exponential growth N(t)=N0*exp(k*t) curves, where the exponent coefficient k is in units inverse of time. k depends on Ro but it depends also on how fast the epidemic spreads. In one population an infected carrier can cause Ro secondary infections in 10 days while in another population and for another disease he can case the same Ro infections but in 15 days. How can one retrieve the same Ro from two different curves? There must be an extra parameter that one must assume or know to retrieve Ro. Is that parameter the same for NY as for CA?

    After some thinking my guess is that k=(Ro-1)/T where T is average time to realize one cycle of Ro infections. Note that when R0=1 then N(t)=const as it should be.
  67. This article says the CDC test kits were already contaminated by the virus. What do you want to bet that these sloppy lab assistants were brown and black? How many testers and uninfected people do you think they gave the virus to?

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/cdcs-failed-coronavirus-tests-were-tainted-with-coronavirus-feds-confirm/

    • Replies: @Jack D
    I doubt that the tests were contaminated to the point where it was still possible to contract the disease from them by they time they reached the labs to which they were distributed, especially since lab personnel presumably wear PPE and observe caution - the throat swabs that they are handling are indeed infectious and may have millions of virus particles.

    One of the components of the CDC test was a control solution. If you performed the test on the supposedly sterile control solution and it came up positive, this mean that you were doing it wrong. The tests were designed to be extremely sensitive to the presence of even a tiny amount of viral RNA. But since the control solution was in fact contaminated by tiny amounts of viral RNA, the control solution tests kept coming up positive, so the CDC assumed that the labs were messing up their test protocols. In fact the labs were fine and it was the CDC that had screwed up by supplying RNA contaminated solutions. The lack of testing blinded us to the spread of the virus and helped contribute to the epidemic.

    Even worse, in the early days there were other non-CDC tests available but the CDC insisted that labs use only their test because the other tests lacked the control solution which supposedly made the CDC test superior.

    The problem that we have in our society, especially in government, is a total lack of accountability - no one will pay the price for this. Not only will they not face the firing squad as they would have in Stalin's Russia, they won't even lose their jobs or be disciplined in the slightest.

  68. @peterike
    Sure, sure, a Pulse Oximeter. But what about using a Turbo Encabulator?

    https://youtu.be/Ac7G7xOG2Ag

    Here’s page 2 of the GE spec sheet, turboencabulator users will need this.

    Be careful not to expose the turboencabulator to excessive DiHydrogen Monoxide. That stuff is dangerous!

    • LOL: epebble
    • Replies: @Alfa158
    LOL, somebody put a lot of time into that. I wonder if some joker in GE’s tech writing department wrote it using standard company fonts and formats as one of those intracompany gags that get xeroxed and passed around.
  69. @LondonBob
    Apparently early use of oxygen is why Germany and Russia have lower death rates, although lower number of ethnic minorities and fat people probably helps too.

    https://twitter.com/OldTownClyde/status/1252548846091001857?s=20

    If we can actually trust the Russian statistics.

  70. @Steve Sailer
    Thanks.

    A few weeks ago, there was the video from the New York doctor arguing that intubation was being overused and comparing it to Mt. Everest climbers' altitude sickness. This might be an even better analogy.

    I pointed the video out on here back when it came out. Nobody listened because I am bad.

  71. @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    Ooh, oximeters! A fresh new way hypochondriacs can indulge their mental illness.

    #CoronaHoax

    Our entire way of life is now designed to placate the psychoses of the mentally ill. Apparently, they can’t just sit at home by themselves. They need to make the entire world as miserable as they are.

  72. It’s an excellent article but this comment is worth heeding:

    “I’m an emergency room physician, a pulmonologist intensivist, and I agree with your observation but not with your conclusion. This is a form of atypical pneumonia. None of the pneumonia symptoms or signs are 100% sensitive, so the absence of “typical” symptoms is not necessarily that unusual. And then, once hypoxia is detected early with pulse oximeters, we don’t have treatment for COVID-19 pneumonia, whether we’re diagnosing it early or late. So what’s the point of detecting early signs of pneumonia in stable patients and bringing them to an already overwhelmed system if we can’t offer them anything other than supportive care. Once we have better understanding of therapeutics and what’s a good treatment in the early phases, perhaps this will be warranted. Where we stand today, I worry, we’re only adding to the mass hysteria and getting people to purchase pulse-ox they don’t know how to use, to then outpour into hospitals already strapped for resources on all fronts.”

    They really can’t help us, is what this doctor is saying.

    There are several videos on Youtube put up by regular MDs, not quacks, who suggest breathing techniques that might help. Any thoughts?

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    They really can’t help us, is what this doctor is saying.

    No, he's saying he's busy and doesn't wish to be bothered.
    , @JosephB
    " I worry, we’re only adding to the mass hysteria and getting people to purchase pulse-ox they don’t know how to use...”

    This statement really turned me off to whatever else he had to say.

    1. Insert finger
    2. Turn it on
    3. Read big digital number
    (steps #1 and #2 are interchangeable if you are reasonably quick)

    It's pretty hard to get to step #3 while making a mistake, as all the pulseox I've seen won't give an output until a finger is inserted.

    If he'd have said "yes, you can buy one, but we're not sure how to treat early cases" that would have been honest. At this point I'm tired of lies.
  73. I bought one weeks ago at Target when they could still be had for less than $35 on store shelves.

  74. @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    Ooh, oximeters! A fresh new way hypochondriacs can indulge their mental illness.

    #CoronaHoax

    Great job, iSteve. Now there is going to be a “run” on oximeters.

  75. @anon
    Here's page 2 of the GE spec sheet, turboencabulator users will need this.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/dc/GE_Turboencabulator_pg_2.jpg


    Be careful not to expose the turboencabulator to excessive DiHydrogen Monoxide. That stuff is dangerous!

    LOL, somebody put a lot of time into that. I wonder if some joker in GE’s tech writing department wrote it using standard company fonts and formats as one of those intracompany gags that get xeroxed and passed around.

  76. @Cloudswrest
    I bought one at Target in early March for about $20.

    CVS has no oximeters online or in local stores. Walgreens has none online, but several in stores, one of which is $39 for the first one, then 50% off on the second one.

    https://www.walgreens.com/store/c/walgreens-fingertip-pulse-oximeter/ID=prod6089451-product

    But, using the invaluable information available here, I just checked mine on my Samsung phone (google “Samsung phone oximeter”) and got a 95%.

    Many thanks to whoever pointed that out.

  77. Anon[427] • Disclaimer says:

    One reason why I think protesting against a lockdown is reasonable is because in my own state, there are 48 counties without a single current case of Covid-19. In those remaining counties that do have them, most of them have less than 3 cases, which are being taken care of by home quarantine (if they ever even had it-the original flawed CDC testing kits may have given them false positives). Only the few cities with a higher caseload need a lockdown.

    I know governors like to pander to voters, but let me repeat this, only cities need a lockdown. The rural countryside is healthy and doesn’t need it. Governors would smarten up if they did their lockdowns only by county-as-needed, not the entire state.

    They could start schools up and have restaurants going in counties without cases with no problems.

    • Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    Good point,

    While in my county the most of the population already has been exposed to Coronavirus....the lockdowns were started too late and even now masks are optional , yet 40% of the population either has Coronavirus or has the antibodies...the local jail tested 115 new inmates last week and 60% had the antibodies

    Here in Essex County 847 have died of CV , which indicates ~160,000 were infected 3 weeks ago and 320,000 are infected infected now.

    No reason to keep the parks and businesses closed here if 330,000 have already been infected in our county of 795,000 people.
    , @JMcG
    Until all the pricks from the cities show up to get a meal.
  78. @Steve Sailer
    Thanks.

    A few weeks ago, there was the video from the New York doctor arguing that intubation was being overused and comparing it to Mt. Everest climbers' altitude sickness. This might be an even better analogy.

    The alternative view that the virus acts on hemoglobin and interferes with oxygen uptake has not been confirmed and accepted by mainstream medicine yet.

    • Replies: @anonymous
    Your point about Covid-19 not acting on hemoglobin at least directly is also make here in this video

    How Coronavirus (COVID19) Kills Some People (But Not Others) - I'm a Lung Doctor (MEDICAL TRUTH)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LV8wWhjTKRU
  79. UK says:

    Steve, might I suggest a topic for you to mull over? The CCP worship on Unz is getting embarrassing. It completely misses the two biggest advantages that China currently has and instead credits their inept and heavy-handed government.

    The first advantage that China has is their high IQ and high conscientiousness population. With this natural resource, the CCP has managed to achieve an HDI living standard that is less than Thailand or Algeria or Brazil or Colombia. That is extremely unimpressive.

    The second advantage is that they are sitting in a one time only astonishingly beneficial for the economy demographic sweetspot.

    The ratio in favour of prime earners to dependents is the very best it could ever be. This is a huge deal. More prime earners than dependents is incredible for growth. It also will not last.

    https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2020/

    These are very iSteve style analyses and are completely missed by both the mainstream media and now neglected in dissident circles too.

    • Thanks: Bill Jones
    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    The Chinese workforce peaked in 2011.

    Russia is in a similar demographic sweet spot.
  80. Steve, no reason to doubt what you write here, but take a close look at the products on the Amazon page you linked to. You are recommending people rush to buy iffy products with few/no/bad reviews on Amazon, which is notoriously poor about standing behind items listed on its site and policing false claims made by sellers (e.g., “FDA approved”).

    I know it’s not your intention, but it seems like you’re steering your readers right into the arms of the “Real cheap! You buy now!” crowd.

  81. Wait wait wait

    The coronavirus tests are only 70% accurate? Is that because of false positives at low incidence, or are there a lot of false negatives too? Sounds like he is talking about false negatives . . . 70% accuracy is garbage accuracy.
    What’s the point of mass testing to open the economy if the test we’re using is wrong 30% of the time?

  82. Searching on Amazon for these Pulse Oximeter devices reveals dozens of no name, I’m guessing Chinese, brands, where the reviews sound fake. Don’t any reputable U.S. companies make these things?

    • Replies: @anon
    South Korea makes reputable pulse oximeters. They are called Samsung Galaxy S8, S9, etc. and many folks have them already, along with the necessary software. Folks who have checked them against "real" pulse oximeters in hospitals claim that they are quite accurate.

    In other news, according to the Youtube Kommissar Wojcicki, WHO's guidelines are now sacred. WHO? The folks that have been in the Chinese pocket and wrong/lying about so many things?
    Yes, that WHO. If WHO declares that only Chinese pulse oximeters are useful, and you disagree on Youtube, you will be banned.
  83. @Steve Sailer
    I paid $18.95 for one on March 8.

    Why didn’t you tell us?

  84. @Anon
    This article says the CDC test kits were already contaminated by the virus. What do you want to bet that these sloppy lab assistants were brown and black? How many testers and uninfected people do you think they gave the virus to?

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/cdcs-failed-coronavirus-tests-were-tainted-with-coronavirus-feds-confirm/

    I doubt that the tests were contaminated to the point where it was still possible to contract the disease from them by they time they reached the labs to which they were distributed, especially since lab personnel presumably wear PPE and observe caution – the throat swabs that they are handling are indeed infectious and may have millions of virus particles.

    One of the components of the CDC test was a control solution. If you performed the test on the supposedly sterile control solution and it came up positive, this mean that you were doing it wrong. The tests were designed to be extremely sensitive to the presence of even a tiny amount of viral RNA. But since the control solution was in fact contaminated by tiny amounts of viral RNA, the control solution tests kept coming up positive, so the CDC assumed that the labs were messing up their test protocols. In fact the labs were fine and it was the CDC that had screwed up by supplying RNA contaminated solutions. The lack of testing blinded us to the spread of the virus and helped contribute to the epidemic.

    Even worse, in the early days there were other non-CDC tests available but the CDC insisted that labs use only their test because the other tests lacked the control solution which supposedly made the CDC test superior.

    The problem that we have in our society, especially in government, is a total lack of accountability – no one will pay the price for this. Not only will they not face the firing squad as they would have in Stalin’s Russia, they won’t even lose their jobs or be disciplined in the slightest.

  85. Anon[427] • Disclaimer says:

    Filthy, vile dog Susan Wojcicki CEO of Youtube is deliberately blocking videos that recommend that you take Vitamin C to help against Covid-19. She admits it here:

    Yeah, spreading Covid-19 is beginning to look more and more like a liberal plot. Either that, or even upper-class liberals are really, really stupid. It’s probably a helping of both. Stupid dog Wojciciki doesn’t even understand that Vitamin C boosts the immune system. She’s scientifically illiterate.

  86. @anon

    It would be nice if the Prime Minister’s doctors would explain how exactly they treated the world’s most famous CV survivor.
     
    Am I the only one who thinks he didn't really have it? Was there any actual evidence?

    I mean, one minute he's public enemy number one because he fucked up the pandemic response - but now he's sympathetic again because he's a victim.

    Am I the only one who thinks he didn’t really have it? Was there any actual evidence?

    Then again, BoJo got it shortly after his decision to go ahead with Huawei 5-G. Maybe someone unleashed a dose of the less-lethal “S” strain on him as a warning shot.

  87. Our local Walgreen’s isn’t carrying any such implement. Or any rubbing alcohol. Or any sanitizer. Did score some Kleenex today. Haven’t seen any in about six weeks.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    Art, I called our Walmart pharmacy, had them on the shelf. Try a local chemical or cleaning supply company for 99% alcohol and dilute with distilled water to 70%. Apparently 70% is a better sanitizing solution. 99% alcohol is great for cleaning electronic components, so maybe that could be a lead. I get mine from a contractor that cleans PVC pipe with it. Stay safe.
  88. @Jane Plain
    It's an excellent article but this comment is worth heeding:

    "I'm an emergency room physician, a pulmonologist intensivist, and I agree with your observation but not with your conclusion. This is a form of atypical pneumonia. None of the pneumonia symptoms or signs are 100% sensitive, so the absence of "typical" symptoms is not necessarily that unusual. And then, once hypoxia is detected early with pulse oximeters, we don't have treatment for COVID-19 pneumonia, whether we're diagnosing it early or late. So what's the point of detecting early signs of pneumonia in stable patients and bringing them to an already overwhelmed system if we can't offer them anything other than supportive care. Once we have better understanding of therapeutics and what's a good treatment in the early phases, perhaps this will be warranted. Where we stand today, I worry, we're only adding to the mass hysteria and getting people to purchase pulse-ox they don't know how to use, to then outpour into hospitals already strapped for resources on all fronts."

    They really can't help us, is what this doctor is saying.

    There are several videos on Youtube put up by regular MDs, not quacks, who suggest breathing techniques that might help. Any thoughts?

    They really can’t help us, is what this doctor is saying.

    No, he’s saying he’s busy and doesn’t wish to be bothered.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    "Supportive care" means that the nurse can wake you every couple of hours to take your temperature and they can bring you food and water in bed but medically they can't actually do anything to help you get better any sooner. This is true of many viral diseases (anti-virals are not as well developed as anti-biotics). The old maxim is that if you treat a cold aggressively it only lasts for 3 days. But if you do nothing, it will take a full 72 hours to feel better. Wuhan Virus lasts longer but the same principle applies in most cases so long as you are still breathing on your own, at least until they figure out an effective treatment regimen/drug therapy.

    And BTW, while you are here in the hospital, may we interest you in a few nice hospital acquired infections that we are selling? Even if you require oxygen or intravenous fluids, in many cases you'd still probably be better off at home instead of that den of infection known as a hospital.

    , @Jane Plain
    Go fuck yourself, Art Deco.
  89. A spirometer is a good idea too. It measures lung function. Set up a baseline while healthy.

    On teh other hand, tests by teh US Veterans Administration healthcare system show that hydrochloroquinine kills more patients than it saves (as was always obvious if you consdiered all 36 patients in France rather than the 30 who comleted the course).

    https://apnews.com/a5077c7227b8eb8b0dc23423c0bbe2b2?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_medium=APHealthScience&utm_source=Twitter

    • Replies: @vhrm
    They didn't give zinc for some reason. It's not even mentioned in the paper.
  90. @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    Ooh, oximeters! A fresh new way hypochondriacs can indulge their mental illness.

    #CoronaHoax

    Ooh, oximeters! A fresh new way hypochondriacs can indulge their mental illness.

    The Apple health app is an OCD hypochondriach’s dream come true. Naturally, you can record your PulseOx and a hundred other things there, and dowload the data to entertain your doc. Who knows, it might become a required “tool” for our Freedumb Passports™.

  91. @Jack D
    It's the opposite of hypochondria - oximeter says I am getting plenty of oxygen. My "Covid" /cold is therefore not serious and I don't need to go to the hospital.

    I dunno … when my PulseOx drops below 98, I get nervous …

  92. This oximeter definitely sounds like a good idea, but my younger son decided to go to Rice (yes, Rice!) rather than Michigan (in-state) so I’m a bit strapped for cash right now. Rice is still cheaper than the Ivy’s.

    I’m about your age, Steve, but without the health scare in my past, and I have say, you seem a bit panicked about this. Trump basically had this right. This is the flu, serious variant. It’s actually safer than the flu for young people, and probably of equal dangerousness to people in their 30s, assuming good health. My concerns about this, for myself, are close to zero. (This doesn’t mean I won’t get unlucky and that it will actually kill me.). I still visit my mom and dad, but try not to kiss them. They are very grateful to see me, talk to me, now that everyone else is “distancing.” Maybe your guru, Cochran, can run the numbers, but to me the cost-benefit swings in favor of this sort of close human contact rather than isolating them from their children for, what, 1 year, 2 years, forever (as there may never be a vaccine)?

    Let me loose, Mr. President!

    • Agree: education realist
  93. @Jane Plain
    It's an excellent article but this comment is worth heeding:

    "I'm an emergency room physician, a pulmonologist intensivist, and I agree with your observation but not with your conclusion. This is a form of atypical pneumonia. None of the pneumonia symptoms or signs are 100% sensitive, so the absence of "typical" symptoms is not necessarily that unusual. And then, once hypoxia is detected early with pulse oximeters, we don't have treatment for COVID-19 pneumonia, whether we're diagnosing it early or late. So what's the point of detecting early signs of pneumonia in stable patients and bringing them to an already overwhelmed system if we can't offer them anything other than supportive care. Once we have better understanding of therapeutics and what's a good treatment in the early phases, perhaps this will be warranted. Where we stand today, I worry, we're only adding to the mass hysteria and getting people to purchase pulse-ox they don't know how to use, to then outpour into hospitals already strapped for resources on all fronts."

    They really can't help us, is what this doctor is saying.

    There are several videos on Youtube put up by regular MDs, not quacks, who suggest breathing techniques that might help. Any thoughts?

    ” I worry, we’re only adding to the mass hysteria and getting people to purchase pulse-ox they don’t know how to use…”

    This statement really turned me off to whatever else he had to say.

    1. Insert finger
    2. Turn it on
    3. Read big digital number
    (steps #1 and #2 are interchangeable if you are reasonably quick)

    It’s pretty hard to get to step #3 while making a mistake, as all the pulseox I’ve seen won’t give an output until a finger is inserted.

    If he’d have said “yes, you can buy one, but we’re not sure how to treat early cases” that would have been honest. At this point I’m tired of lies.

  94. @Art Deco
    They really can’t help us, is what this doctor is saying.

    No, he's saying he's busy and doesn't wish to be bothered.

    “Supportive care” means that the nurse can wake you every couple of hours to take your temperature and they can bring you food and water in bed but medically they can’t actually do anything to help you get better any sooner. This is true of many viral diseases (anti-virals are not as well developed as anti-biotics). The old maxim is that if you treat a cold aggressively it only lasts for 3 days. But if you do nothing, it will take a full 72 hours to feel better. Wuhan Virus lasts longer but the same principle applies in most cases so long as you are still breathing on your own, at least until they figure out an effective treatment regimen/drug therapy.

    And BTW, while you are here in the hospital, may we interest you in a few nice hospital acquired infections that we are selling? Even if you require oxygen or intravenous fluids, in many cases you’d still probably be better off at home instead of that den of infection known as a hospital.

  95. Anon[157] • Disclaimer says:

    Even better: Learn the Wim Hof breathing method, especially if you’re older or at risk. And teach or introduce it to the elderly and at risk folk you know. The government should be running PSAs promoting the method and requiring nursing homes, caregivers, and hospitals to teach the method.

  96. @anon

    It would be nice if the Prime Minister’s doctors would explain how exactly they treated the world’s most famous CV survivor.
     
    Am I the only one who thinks he didn't really have it? Was there any actual evidence?

    I mean, one minute he's public enemy number one because he fucked up the pandemic response - but now he's sympathetic again because he's a victim.

    No, idiots like you are a dime a dozen.

  97. Anon[343] • Disclaimer says:

    The friggin’ WHO is on a fear-mongering rampage:

    https://amp-abc-net-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/12161196?usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA=&amp_js_v=0.1#aoh=15872795446561&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc.net.au%2Fnews%2F2020-04-18%2Fwho-unsure-antibodies-protect-against-covid-19-coronavirus%2F12161196

    Dr. Mike Ryan claims that if you have antibodies against Covid-19, there’s no proof that they protect you against Covid-19. Well, what the heck did they develop for? What were the antibodies attacking? This is patent nonsense.

    Second, “Dr Ryan also said that even if antibodies were effective, there was little sign that large numbers of people had developed them after contracting coronavirus and were offering so-called “herd immunity” to the broader population.”

    You know what? This happens with EVERY disease. Most people who have been exposed to a disease don’t develop antibodies to it. This is normal. Dr. Ryan is trying to scare the heck out of the general public who doesn’t understand the difference between the Innate Immune System and the Adaptive Immune System.

    Here’s a video explaining it in terms a little kid could understand:

    Your Innate Immune System is your 1st line of defense, and it’s very tough. It wipes out every foreign intruder it can find. But it does not form antibodies. It work fine without have to do that.

    It’s only when your Innate Immune System thinks it’s fighting something unusually tough that it sends a signal to your 2nd line of defense, your Adaptive Immune System. The Adaptive Immune System is the heavy artillery. It’s the one that makes antibodies, and it attacks in huge masses. When you feel sick, it’s because your Adaptive Immune System has declared war.

    The important point is, the Innate Immune System wipes out most diseases before they get very far. Nature is parsimonious, and your body doesn’t go to the extra trouble of forming antibodies if you don’t need them.

    This means that most people who were exposed to Covid-19 had it wiped out by their Innate Immune System. It never got to the stage where their Adaptive Immune system needed to react, so they don’t carry antibodies. It also means A LOT more people could have been exposed to Covid-19 and wiped it out, without realizing they’d even been exposed. What’s more, there’s no way to check whether you’ve been exposed via an antibody test because you won’t have antibodies, even though you were indeed exposed and your Innate Immune System wiped it out quite handily.

    Unfortunately, this creates a perfect situation in which you can be scared to death by someone pushing an agenda. But Dr. Ryan is hoping most people don’t realize the above. He’s deliberately trying to scare the crap out of people. He’s an MD, and he knows the difference between the Innate and Adaptive immune system, and how they tackle diseases. And as some presumably smart enough to be hired by the WHO, he knows you don’t show antibodies to most diseases you’ve been exposed to, and that this is normal.

    Every doctor knows this.

    You know what you need to look at? Look at the decrease in new infections and deaths. That’s your ‘herd immunity.’

    Some guy on Twitter posted graphs today in which he showed that Covid-19 was in decline in most US states BEFORE these states started their lockdowns. Unfortunately, I forgot to bookmark the page or I’d have posted a link here. Apparently, almost no one’s been looking at this data except for this guy.

    • Replies: @Mehen

    Some guy on Twitter posted graphs today in which he showed that Covid-19 was in decline in most US states BEFORE these states started their lockdowns. Unfortunately, I forgot to bookmark the page or I’d have posted a link here. Apparently, almost no one’s been looking at this data except for this guy.
     
    https://mobile.twitter.com/shanecoombs/status/1252326278839050240
    , @gabriel alberton
    Missing from your explanation: ''mutat-'', ''strain'' (after all, no one gets the flu more than once...), how herd immunity (you put it between quotation marks: does that mean you don't buy the concept?) can be reached without most people having antibodies specific to this virus, and from where you're getting your data to say that, in particular, the number of deaths per day in the US is decreasing, let alone how the number of new confirmed cases per day there was in decline before the lockdowns. I guess the lockdowns made them increase, or something.
    , @Peterike
    “ Some guy on Twitter posted graphs today in which he showed that Covid-19 was in decline in most US states BEFORE these states started their lockdowns. Unfortunately, I forgot to bookmark the page or I’d have posted a link here.”

    I posted a link to that up thread.
    , @anonymous
    Please take the time to further comment.

    I think you are really on to something. You should try to get Steve to up post your excellent comment.

    Within the Keto-IF community and certain segments of the Alt-Right / Dissident-Right there is more sophisticated dialectic derived opinion that for the Metabolically healthy Covid-19 poses very little risk but unfortunately a limited and specified lockdown is still warranted.

    For the metabolically healthy their innate immune system is able to fight off Covid-19 completely or at least long enough for the adaptive immune system to kick in and produce antibodies long before the viral load is high or excess inflammation of the "cytokine storm" wreck havoc on the lungs.

    You make the point that there may be lots of very fit people who may have come in contact with Covid-19 yet never produced detectable levels of antibodies. This seems to explain the phenomena of the NBA players and the Icelandic ski vacationers where there have been lower than expected rates of antibody detection and little to no illness in spite of what one should have expected to be very high likelihood of exposure to what is believed to be a high infectious virus.

    I am neither a "Just the flu bro" it is all a conspiracy type like Andrew Anglin or in panic mode like the most of the RightStuff.biz.

    Covid-19 is a crisis, but one that has been exploited heavily by the "Globalists". Wink!!! Wink!!!

    A continued limited lockdown for the at risk, the elderly especially those in assisted living, immune compromised, diabetic, morbid obese would make sense until herd immunity is achieved.

    But how does one tell this to a collection of overweight Harley riding aging boomers libertarians wanting to relive their Tea Party days and unhealthy blacks and Hispanics that everyone else should be able to go about their lives while they stay at home???

    All of this requires noticing patterns which we know is forbidden.
  98. @anon

    It would be nice if the Prime Minister’s doctors would explain how exactly they treated the world’s most famous CV survivor.
     
    Am I the only one who thinks he didn't really have it? Was there any actual evidence?

    I mean, one minute he's public enemy number one because he fucked up the pandemic response - but now he's sympathetic again because he's a victim.

    Am I the only one who thinks he didn’t really have it? […] now he’s sympathetic again because he’s a victim.

    Written by me, April 9 (and, elsewhere, right after the news came out on April 6), during his hospitalization:

    Prime Minister Boris Johnson hospitalized with COVID19.”

    Or, Boris Johnson’s latest publicity stunt.

    [MORE]

    Despite, it was later revealed, being only a precaution, not having pneumonia, not being a prime candidate for hospitalization, he was hospitalized — and the very evening before the UK total-death data through the end of March was published. This pre-emptive strike by Mr. Self-Promoter (Boris Publicity Stunt Johnson) deflated the sails of the good news that the UK’s total deaths through the end of March were still lower year-to-date than the running average for 2015-to-2019, more strong evidence against the Corona Apocalypse.

    Although we are not necessarily going to ever know for sure, the strong possibility that Boris’ sudden “turn for the worse” (“Only to heroically pull through!” curtain; Act III) raises several possibilities. Whose choice was the hospitalization? His own, a classic Boris move to gain sympathy? Or was it other members of the “Corona Coup d’Etat” faction, who want UK’ers to show more damned respect for the Corona Panic, our substitute God now that Easter has been cancelled?

    (And what better example of a one-time heretic to the Holy CoronaReligion to make than Boris, who led a rearguard action until late in the game against the Corona Panic, resisting the mass shutdowns longer than the other cavers-in?)

    April 10 follow-up to this prediction:

    Boris’ sudden “turn for the worse” (“Only to heroically pull through!” Curtain; Act III)

    And, sure enough, now this:

    U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson out of intensive care
    NBC News

  99. @Art Deco
    Our local Walgreen's isn't carrying any such implement. Or any rubbing alcohol. Or any sanitizer. Did score some Kleenex today. Haven't seen any in about six weeks.

    Art, I called our Walmart pharmacy, had them on the shelf. Try a local chemical or cleaning supply company for 99% alcohol and dilute with distilled water to 70%. Apparently 70% is a better sanitizing solution. 99% alcohol is great for cleaning electronic components, so maybe that could be a lead. I get mine from a contractor that cleans PVC pipe with it. Stay safe.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    Thank you.
    , @Johann Ricke

    Try a local chemical or cleaning supply company for 99% alcohol and dilute with distilled water to 70%.
     
    I have a feeling the Consumer Product Safety Board isn't about to rap you on the knuckles for using plain tap water instead of distilled.
    , @Anonymous
    OT

    Art, I called our Walmart pharmacy, had them on the shelf. Try a local chemical or cleaning supply company for 99% alcohol and dilute with distilled water to 70%. Apparently 70% is a better sanitizing solution.

    Sorry, trying to follow along: are you diluting the 99% alcohol with distilled water strictly in an effort to "stretch" your supply of the alcohol or:

    Apparently 70% is a better sanitizing solution.

    Do you mean to say that a 70% alcohol solution possesses a chemical property that makes it better suited for disinfecting than your original one?

    Er, is it simply a matter of anything over 70% being wasted? I'm afraid I am having trouble grasping how a 70% solution would be superior to a prima facie "stronger" one of 99%.
  100. Anonymous[198] • Disclaimer says:

    It would be nice if the Prime Minister’s doctors would explain how exactly they treated the world’s most famous CV survivor.

    OMERTA. The Orange Man Bad cult is international.

    Boris did a video address on his twitter right after being discharged from the hospital. In the video…

    1/ His voice is normal. His energy is normal. If he is reading a teleprompter it is an excellent dramatic recitation. Very hard to read a speech that well. If he isn’t reading a teleprompter he is some sort of an oratorical genius.

    2/ He’s not short of breath.

    3/ He’s not coughing or hacking.

    Bannon warroom guys think something’s not right with the Boris covid story and the video points to that being possible.t

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason

    Bannon warroom guys think something’s not right with the Boris covid story and the video points to that being possible.t
     
    Considering the number of people involved in treating him at St. Thomas's Hospital--nurses, doctors, administrators, pharmacists, security, respiratory therapists who would have seen his medical record and vital signs--and no doubt their familes, spouses, lovers, partners who would probably be in the know if he was faking it, I really doubt that it was faked.

    It is not like the vast majority of National Health employees are "Always Borisers". If he was faking it, someone would have spilled the beans.
    , @gabriel alberton

    If he isn’t reading a teleprompter he is some sort of an oratorical genius.
     
    How do you think Johnson got where he is?

    Perhaps he should provide proof he was admitted to the ICU. Just an exam saying he tested positive for the yellow menace virus is not enough, as it's just the flu. He could also be using a double.

    Speaking of hoaxes, the times call for a new truther -- like the birthers were to Obama, we shall welcome the brave covid-19 deathers. Those supposed, ''probable'' covid-19 deaths are just that. To deny question every one of them is their duty.

    , @Buzz Mohawk
    If he suddenly starts taking credit for 9/11, I'd begin to think it's not really him.

    http://a.abcnews.go.com/images/International/wnn_osama_bin_laden_911_confession_110502_wg.jpg
  101. @Buffalo Joe
    Art, I called our Walmart pharmacy, had them on the shelf. Try a local chemical or cleaning supply company for 99% alcohol and dilute with distilled water to 70%. Apparently 70% is a better sanitizing solution. 99% alcohol is great for cleaning electronic components, so maybe that could be a lead. I get mine from a contractor that cleans PVC pipe with it. Stay safe.

    Thank you.

  102. @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    Ooh, oximeters! A fresh new way hypochondriacs can indulge their mental illness.

    #CoronaHoax

    Ooh, oximeters! A fresh new way hypochondriacs can indulge their mental illness.

    Actually pulse oximeters are now standard equipment in any health care setting and routinely used as a part of the vital signs (Blood Pressure, Pulse, Respiration Rate, Temperature, and O2 Saturation) for every visit to a doctor.

    Back in the eighties we had fund-raising drives to buy pulse oximeters for the recovery room of my local hospital after a young boy died after having his tonsils removed, but they are much cheaper now. I believe I paid about $12 for mine 2-3 years ago on Amazon.

    If you think you are having corona virus symptoms and you are 70 or over, and your O2 sat measurement is less than 94%, then you should definitely seek medical help. Prolonged lowered O2 saturation below 90% can lead to damage to other organs such as the heart and kidneys, or mental confusion–and you really do not want to be on a ventilator plus kidney dialysis.

    (The fingertip machines tend to have a margin of error of about 3% either way, so it is best to be on the safe side.)

  103. @Jack D
    You can still get them from US sellers on Ebay for under $30 with free delivery in a few days. (Amazon Prime is not two days anymore - for a lot of things, MUCH longer). Some of the cheapest ebay sellers are new with little feedback but if you scroll down a little you can find ones with more feedback.

    All of the cheap oximeters seem to be "China" brand. I have no idea how accurate they are or how long they last - QC on Chinese gizmos is not very good so sometimes if you get "a good one" it is pretty good and if you get "a bad one" it's awful, even if they are two samples of the same device.

    All of the cheap oximeters seem to be “China” brand. I have no idea how accurate they are or how long they last

    It is difficult to know what the quality of this kind of thing is when well-known brands with fancy packaging will tend to inflate their prices to give the impression that they have a premium product, when the insides very likely contain exactly the same integrated circuit chips as the cheap ones.

    You can get them cheap enough on Ali Express, except that China is now on the naughty step. (Some are priced at lots of 100, but others can be bought as a single item.)

    https://www.alibaba.com/trade/search?fsb=y&IndexArea=product_en&CatId=&SearchText=pulse+oximeter

    • Replies: @Jack D

    It is difficult to know what the quality of this kind of thing is when well-known brands with fancy packaging will tend to inflate their prices to give the impression that they have a premium product, when the insides very likely contain exactly the same integrated circuit chips as the cheap ones.
     
    Generally I agree but

    (1) in the "China" brand one it's probably not even the real name brand chip but a counterfeit reverse engineered copy with the same pin outs - the Chinese will pirate anything and their reverse engineering (and cost/corner cutting) capabilities are amazing. There are some amazing YouTube videos where guys take apart counterfeit phone chargers and such. The Chinese will spend a lot of $ making the outside look perfect but when you crack open the case, the inside of the device is nothing like that of a quality device and shows many shortcuts which reduce safety and which are evident if you test the device.

    (2) or else the chips in the China brand device are the factory rejects of the genuine chips that were not quite up to spec.

    (3) Western brands that do their manufacturing in China spend a huge amount of $ on quality control to keep their China manufacturers honest, from long and bitter experience in what happens when you don't watch the Chinese like hawks. When you buy your $15 oximeter on Aliexpress, there' s no one minding the store and good luck sending it back to Shenzen if it breaks after 3 days.
  104. Anon[343] • Disclaimer says:

    Here’s a good website with a graph that gives you an idea of the rate at which Covid-19 is vanishing from the country. He’s measuring the Rt, and when Rt falls below 1, that means the virus will die out. At this point, 30 US states have an Rt below 1, meaning the virus is vanishing from these states. 7 more states are at 1.0 and 1.1, which means they’re close to the tipping point of falling below. It’s very enlightening to compare today’s results on the scale to the one 3 weeks ago. I recommend people try it.

    https://rt.live/

    • Replies: @res
    Note that they just made a major model update (says 4/23 on the site). I have not looked at that in death, but it seems to have changed the double peak in New York in early March.
  105. @Jack D
    You can still get them from US sellers on Ebay for under $30 with free delivery in a few days. (Amazon Prime is not two days anymore - for a lot of things, MUCH longer). Some of the cheapest ebay sellers are new with little feedback but if you scroll down a little you can find ones with more feedback.

    All of the cheap oximeters seem to be "China" brand. I have no idea how accurate they are or how long they last - QC on Chinese gizmos is not very good so sometimes if you get "a good one" it is pretty good and if you get "a bad one" it's awful, even if they are two samples of the same device.

    I ordered two from eBay today in the price range you mentioned. I bought two because 1) I want my wife and I to each have our own for practical reasons and 2) I want to check them against each other to get an idea of actual accuracy.

    I had two inexpensive but decent Bosch oil pressure gauges that I could compare with each other when one of them registered an unusually high pressure reading in one of my cars. The second gauge seemed to confirm that the initial reading (and gauge) was correct.

    The stated accuracy on the oximeter is + or – two points in the 70% and over range. Not stellar, but not bad for a home unit that’s being used to get a general idea. Oh yes, it had free shipping, like you said. Thanks to Steve Sailer for the suggestion.

  106. @Anonymous
    It would be nice if the Prime Minister’s doctors would explain how exactly they treated the world’s most famous CV survivor.

    OMERTA. The Orange Man Bad cult is international.

    Boris did a video address on his twitter right after being discharged from the hospital. In the video...

    1/ His voice is normal. His energy is normal. If he is reading a teleprompter it is an excellent dramatic recitation. Very hard to read a speech that well. If he isn't reading a teleprompter he is some sort of an oratorical genius.

    2/ He's not short of breath.

    3/ He's not coughing or hacking.

    Bannon warroom guys think something's not right with the Boris covid story and the video points to that being possible.t

    Bannon warroom guys think something’s not right with the Boris covid story and the video points to that being possible.t

    Considering the number of people involved in treating him at St. Thomas’s Hospital–nurses, doctors, administrators, pharmacists, security, respiratory therapists who would have seen his medical record and vital signs–and no doubt their familes, spouses, lovers, partners who would probably be in the know if he was faking it, I really doubt that it was faked.

    It is not like the vast majority of National Health employees are “Always Borisers”. If he was faking it, someone would have spilled the beans.

    • Replies: @ploni almoni
    If he was faking it nobody would have seen anything and there would be no one to debunk it.
  107. Anonymous[277] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jack D
    I don' think that they would intubate you in the ER unless you came in not breathing at all. Normally they would send you to the ICU and the ICU docs would make the decision to intubate.

    At the beginning of this epidemic they assumed that Covid was like other respiratory diseases and they would need lots and lots of ventilators which would outrun the supply (even now they are working furiously on building ventilators that they will never use). It's only thru experience that they have now realized that in many or most cases it's better not to intubate for Covid. In any novel disease it take a while to hit upon the best treatment plan. Unfortunately, in the interim many people die from having received the wrong treatment. Medicine inches forward one corpse at a time.

    If you came in “not breathing” the paramedics would probably have intubated you. The ED intubates people who are breathing but altered, appear to be fatiguing, having intractable seizures etc. Classically a score of less than 8 on this scale (“Glasgow Coma Score”) means you should be intubated:

  108. @Anon
    The friggin' WHO is on a fear-mongering rampage:

    https://amp-abc-net-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/12161196?usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA=&amp_js_v=0.1#aoh=15872795446561&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc.net.au%2Fnews%2F2020-04-18%2Fwho-unsure-antibodies-protect-against-covid-19-coronavirus%2F12161196

    Dr. Mike Ryan claims that if you have antibodies against Covid-19, there's no proof that they protect you against Covid-19. Well, what the heck did they develop for? What were the antibodies attacking? This is patent nonsense.

    Second, "Dr Ryan also said that even if antibodies were effective, there was little sign that large numbers of people had developed them after contracting coronavirus and were offering so-called "herd immunity" to the broader population."

    You know what? This happens with EVERY disease. Most people who have been exposed to a disease don't develop antibodies to it. This is normal. Dr. Ryan is trying to scare the heck out of the general public who doesn't understand the difference between the Innate Immune System and the Adaptive Immune System.

    Here's a video explaining it in terms a little kid could understand:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzunOgYHeyg

    Your Innate Immune System is your 1st line of defense, and it's very tough. It wipes out every foreign intruder it can find. But it does not form antibodies. It work fine without have to do that.

    It's only when your Innate Immune System thinks it's fighting something unusually tough that it sends a signal to your 2nd line of defense, your Adaptive Immune System. The Adaptive Immune System is the heavy artillery. It's the one that makes antibodies, and it attacks in huge masses. When you feel sick, it's because your Adaptive Immune System has declared war.

    The important point is, the Innate Immune System wipes out most diseases before they get very far. Nature is parsimonious, and your body doesn't go to the extra trouble of forming antibodies if you don't need them.

    This means that most people who were exposed to Covid-19 had it wiped out by their Innate Immune System. It never got to the stage where their Adaptive Immune system needed to react, so they don't carry antibodies. It also means A LOT more people could have been exposed to Covid-19 and wiped it out, without realizing they'd even been exposed. What's more, there's no way to check whether you've been exposed via an antibody test because you won't have antibodies, even though you were indeed exposed and your Innate Immune System wiped it out quite handily.

    Unfortunately, this creates a perfect situation in which you can be scared to death by someone pushing an agenda. But Dr. Ryan is hoping most people don't realize the above. He's deliberately trying to scare the crap out of people. He's an MD, and he knows the difference between the Innate and Adaptive immune system, and how they tackle diseases. And as some presumably smart enough to be hired by the WHO, he knows you don't show antibodies to most diseases you've been exposed to, and that this is normal.

    Every doctor knows this.

    You know what you need to look at? Look at the decrease in new infections and deaths. That's your 'herd immunity.'

    Some guy on Twitter posted graphs today in which he showed that Covid-19 was in decline in most US states BEFORE these states started their lockdowns. Unfortunately, I forgot to bookmark the page or I'd have posted a link here. Apparently, almost no one's been looking at this data except for this guy.

    Some guy on Twitter posted graphs today in which he showed that Covid-19 was in decline in most US states BEFORE these states started their lockdowns. Unfortunately, I forgot to bookmark the page or I’d have posted a link here. Apparently, almost no one’s been looking at this data except for this guy.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/shanecoombs/status/1252326278839050240

  109. @Anonymous
    It would be nice if the Prime Minister’s doctors would explain how exactly they treated the world’s most famous CV survivor.

    OMERTA. The Orange Man Bad cult is international.

    Boris did a video address on his twitter right after being discharged from the hospital. In the video...

    1/ His voice is normal. His energy is normal. If he is reading a teleprompter it is an excellent dramatic recitation. Very hard to read a speech that well. If he isn't reading a teleprompter he is some sort of an oratorical genius.

    2/ He's not short of breath.

    3/ He's not coughing or hacking.

    Bannon warroom guys think something's not right with the Boris covid story and the video points to that being possible.t

    If he isn’t reading a teleprompter he is some sort of an oratorical genius.

    How do you think Johnson got where he is?

    Perhaps he should provide proof he was admitted to the ICU. Just an exam saying he tested positive for the yellow menace virus is not enough, as it’s just the flu. He could also be using a double.

    Speaking of hoaxes, the times call for a new truther — like the birthers were to Obama, we shall welcome the brave covid-19 deathers. Those supposed, ”probable” covid-19 deaths are just that. To deny question every one of them is their duty.

  110. @Steve Sailer
    Right. You now will have at home the tools to decide if/when you have to go to the ER, so you don't have to go to the ER to find out if you have to go to the ER.

    Sort of OT:

    “Our cross sectional study in both COVID-19 out- and inpatients strongly suggests that current smokers have a very much lower probability of developing symptomatic or severe SARS-CoV-2 infection as compared to the general population.”

    https://www.qeios.com/read/article/574

  111. @Buzz Mohawk
    I have one of these on order, because, you know, the whole world has stopped and nobody is cutting hair any more:

    https://m.media-amazon.com/images/S/aplus-media/vc/109af062-d058-4d2f-87e1-0c885c9cb1ab.png

    Jeff Bezos says he'll get it to me sometime in the middle of May. He doesn't care, because he is a skinhead.

    If I find myself getting tired buzzing my head, I will take that as a sign that I am not getting enough oxygen, and I will get myself to an ER so they can kill me with a ventilator.

    Do you think you’d be able to perform an actual “Buzz Mohawk” hairstyle on yourself?

    Some of these quarantine haircut memes are hilarious!

    https://ifunny.co/fun/G6GHTDOa7?s=cl

    • LOL: Buzz Mohawk
  112. @Anon
    One reason why I think protesting against a lockdown is reasonable is because in my own state, there are 48 counties without a single current case of Covid-19. In those remaining counties that do have them, most of them have less than 3 cases, which are being taken care of by home quarantine (if they ever even had it-the original flawed CDC testing kits may have given them false positives). Only the few cities with a higher caseload need a lockdown.

    I know governors like to pander to voters, but let me repeat this, only cities need a lockdown. The rural countryside is healthy and doesn't need it. Governors would smarten up if they did their lockdowns only by county-as-needed, not the entire state.

    They could start schools up and have restaurants going in counties without cases with no problems.

    Good point,

    While in my county the most of the population already has been exposed to Coronavirus….the lockdowns were started too late and even now masks are optional , yet 40% of the population either has Coronavirus or has the antibodies…the local jail tested 115 new inmates last week and 60% had the antibodies

    Here in Essex County 847 have died of CV , which indicates ~160,000 were infected 3 weeks ago and 320,000 are infected infected now.

    No reason to keep the parks and businesses closed here if 330,000 have already been infected in our county of 795,000 people.

  113. anonymous[402] • Disclaimer says:
    @Sol
    The alternative view that the virus acts on hemoglobin and interferes with oxygen uptake has not been confirmed and accepted by mainstream medicine yet.

    Your point about Covid-19 not acting on hemoglobin at least directly is also make here in this video

    How Coronavirus (COVID19) Kills Some People (But Not Others) – I’m a Lung Doctor (MEDICAL TRUTH)

  114. @Anon
    One reason why I think protesting against a lockdown is reasonable is because in my own state, there are 48 counties without a single current case of Covid-19. In those remaining counties that do have them, most of them have less than 3 cases, which are being taken care of by home quarantine (if they ever even had it-the original flawed CDC testing kits may have given them false positives). Only the few cities with a higher caseload need a lockdown.

    I know governors like to pander to voters, but let me repeat this, only cities need a lockdown. The rural countryside is healthy and doesn't need it. Governors would smarten up if they did their lockdowns only by county-as-needed, not the entire state.

    They could start schools up and have restaurants going in counties without cases with no problems.

    Until all the pricks from the cities show up to get a meal.

  115. @Anon
    The friggin' WHO is on a fear-mongering rampage:

    https://amp-abc-net-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/12161196?usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA=&amp_js_v=0.1#aoh=15872795446561&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc.net.au%2Fnews%2F2020-04-18%2Fwho-unsure-antibodies-protect-against-covid-19-coronavirus%2F12161196

    Dr. Mike Ryan claims that if you have antibodies against Covid-19, there's no proof that they protect you against Covid-19. Well, what the heck did they develop for? What were the antibodies attacking? This is patent nonsense.

    Second, "Dr Ryan also said that even if antibodies were effective, there was little sign that large numbers of people had developed them after contracting coronavirus and were offering so-called "herd immunity" to the broader population."

    You know what? This happens with EVERY disease. Most people who have been exposed to a disease don't develop antibodies to it. This is normal. Dr. Ryan is trying to scare the heck out of the general public who doesn't understand the difference between the Innate Immune System and the Adaptive Immune System.

    Here's a video explaining it in terms a little kid could understand:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzunOgYHeyg

    Your Innate Immune System is your 1st line of defense, and it's very tough. It wipes out every foreign intruder it can find. But it does not form antibodies. It work fine without have to do that.

    It's only when your Innate Immune System thinks it's fighting something unusually tough that it sends a signal to your 2nd line of defense, your Adaptive Immune System. The Adaptive Immune System is the heavy artillery. It's the one that makes antibodies, and it attacks in huge masses. When you feel sick, it's because your Adaptive Immune System has declared war.

    The important point is, the Innate Immune System wipes out most diseases before they get very far. Nature is parsimonious, and your body doesn't go to the extra trouble of forming antibodies if you don't need them.

    This means that most people who were exposed to Covid-19 had it wiped out by their Innate Immune System. It never got to the stage where their Adaptive Immune system needed to react, so they don't carry antibodies. It also means A LOT more people could have been exposed to Covid-19 and wiped it out, without realizing they'd even been exposed. What's more, there's no way to check whether you've been exposed via an antibody test because you won't have antibodies, even though you were indeed exposed and your Innate Immune System wiped it out quite handily.

    Unfortunately, this creates a perfect situation in which you can be scared to death by someone pushing an agenda. But Dr. Ryan is hoping most people don't realize the above. He's deliberately trying to scare the crap out of people. He's an MD, and he knows the difference between the Innate and Adaptive immune system, and how they tackle diseases. And as some presumably smart enough to be hired by the WHO, he knows you don't show antibodies to most diseases you've been exposed to, and that this is normal.

    Every doctor knows this.

    You know what you need to look at? Look at the decrease in new infections and deaths. That's your 'herd immunity.'

    Some guy on Twitter posted graphs today in which he showed that Covid-19 was in decline in most US states BEFORE these states started their lockdowns. Unfortunately, I forgot to bookmark the page or I'd have posted a link here. Apparently, almost no one's been looking at this data except for this guy.

    Missing from your explanation: ”mutat-”, ”strain” (after all, no one gets the flu more than once…), how herd immunity (you put it between quotation marks: does that mean you don’t buy the concept?) can be reached without most people having antibodies specific to this virus, and from where you’re getting your data to say that, in particular, the number of deaths per day in the US is decreasing, let alone how the number of new confirmed cases per day there was in decline before the lockdowns. I guess the lockdowns made them increase, or something.

  116. @Jonathan Mason

    All of the cheap oximeters seem to be “China” brand. I have no idea how accurate they are or how long they last
     
    It is difficult to know what the quality of this kind of thing is when well-known brands with fancy packaging will tend to inflate their prices to give the impression that they have a premium product, when the insides very likely contain exactly the same integrated circuit chips as the cheap ones.

    You can get them cheap enough on Ali Express, except that China is now on the naughty step. (Some are priced at lots of 100, but others can be bought as a single item.)

    https://www.alibaba.com/trade/search?fsb=y&IndexArea=product_en&CatId=&SearchText=pulse+oximeter

    It is difficult to know what the quality of this kind of thing is when well-known brands with fancy packaging will tend to inflate their prices to give the impression that they have a premium product, when the insides very likely contain exactly the same integrated circuit chips as the cheap ones.

    Generally I agree but

    (1) in the “China” brand one it’s probably not even the real name brand chip but a counterfeit reverse engineered copy with the same pin outs – the Chinese will pirate anything and their reverse engineering (and cost/corner cutting) capabilities are amazing. There are some amazing YouTube videos where guys take apart counterfeit phone chargers and such. The Chinese will spend a lot of $ making the outside look perfect but when you crack open the case, the inside of the device is nothing like that of a quality device and shows many shortcuts which reduce safety and which are evident if you test the device.

    (2) or else the chips in the China brand device are the factory rejects of the genuine chips that were not quite up to spec.

    (3) Western brands that do their manufacturing in China spend a huge amount of $ on quality control to keep their China manufacturers honest, from long and bitter experience in what happens when you don’t watch the Chinese like hawks. When you buy your $15 oximeter on Aliexpress, there’ s no one minding the store and good luck sending it back to Shenzen if it breaks after 3 days.

    • Agree: Johann Ricke
    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
    Maybe, but even at retail you can buy something like the MAX30100 chip from Maxim Integrated on a breakout board for a few bucks and make your own pulse oximeter using an Arduino. Since ICs are so cheap I wonder if it is even worth making knock offs.

    https://www.maximintegrated.com/en/products/sensors/MAX30100.html

    https://www.dnatechindia.com/image/cache/catalog/max30100%20a-500x500.jpg

  117. @SimpleSong
    One caveat--as anyone who works in healthcare can tell you, if you put on a pulse oximeter and it's not getting a good signal, it will often basically become a random number generator. So you may have a lot of false positives with this.

    Bad signals take a bit of expertise to troubleshoot, it can be you don't have it on properly, or your hands are extremely cold and have poor circulation, or you are wearing nail polish (even clear nail polish can screw up the signal because it uses infrared as well as visible), or you put it on too large a finger or too small a finger. Anesthesiologists are always screwing with these things during cases, probably more than any other monitor, and they have the really high end ones. So you might get a lot of false positives with this.

    However if you feel sick or you know you have coronavirus and you are weighing whether to go in to the hospital, the false positives are probably worth it.

    Second aside: respiratory phys is interesting--you need your lungs for two things, to eliminate carbon dioxide and absorb oxygen, but the drive to breathe is solely from carbon dioxide levels. The feeling of suffocation or shortness of breath is caused by CO2 alone (specifically, high CO2). If you breathe an atmosphere of pure nitrogen you will feel perfectly fine for a few seconds, then immediately die. On the other hand an atmosphere of 10% CO2 and 20% oxygen will make you feel like you are suffocating, possibly induce a panic attack, but nevertheless could probably be breathed indefinitely.

    Third aside: if the best treatment for this turns out to be oxygenation, that is very, very good news. Because the atmosphere is only 20% oxygen is pretty easy to improve oxygenation, just crank that up to 100% oxygen and now each breath delivers five times as much oxygen. This is technically easy to do and doesn't require intubation or a ventilator. A 4 dollar non-rebreathing facemask can get you well above 50% and basically anybody can use it. Heck people with COPD spend years with nasal cannulae and oxygen generators managing their disease at home.

    Ventilators are required primarily for CO2 elimination (although they also help with oxygenation). While it's easy to increase the oxygen that is inhaled with simple passive measures like facemasks, to get rid of more CO2, you just have to breathe, no other option, so if the patient can't do it you need the vent, with all the complexities and risks associated with that.

    Because the atmosphere is only 20% oxygen is pretty easy to improve oxygenation, just crank that up to 100% oxygen and now each breath delivers five times as much oxygen.

    That’s. Not. How. It. Works. In fact, that is exactly how people die.

    You should look up Oxygen Toxicity and the Bohr Effect.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    Oxygen toxicity exists and ideally you give just enough oxygen concentration to keep PaO2 at minimum adequate levels in order to stave it off but sometime the oxygen concentration that is necessary is 100% (and even that might not work). Here is the money quote:

    Life threatening hypoxia must always be relieved even if this requires the use of 100% oxygen for prolonged periods of time.
     
    http://medind.nic.in/jac/t03/i3/jact03i3p234.pdf

    Suffering side effects from oxygen toxicity is bad, but being dead is even worse. Sometimes in medicine you have no good choices and can only choose the lesser of two evils.

  118. @Anon
    The friggin' WHO is on a fear-mongering rampage:

    https://amp-abc-net-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/12161196?usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA=&amp_js_v=0.1#aoh=15872795446561&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc.net.au%2Fnews%2F2020-04-18%2Fwho-unsure-antibodies-protect-against-covid-19-coronavirus%2F12161196

    Dr. Mike Ryan claims that if you have antibodies against Covid-19, there's no proof that they protect you against Covid-19. Well, what the heck did they develop for? What were the antibodies attacking? This is patent nonsense.

    Second, "Dr Ryan also said that even if antibodies were effective, there was little sign that large numbers of people had developed them after contracting coronavirus and were offering so-called "herd immunity" to the broader population."

    You know what? This happens with EVERY disease. Most people who have been exposed to a disease don't develop antibodies to it. This is normal. Dr. Ryan is trying to scare the heck out of the general public who doesn't understand the difference between the Innate Immune System and the Adaptive Immune System.

    Here's a video explaining it in terms a little kid could understand:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzunOgYHeyg

    Your Innate Immune System is your 1st line of defense, and it's very tough. It wipes out every foreign intruder it can find. But it does not form antibodies. It work fine without have to do that.

    It's only when your Innate Immune System thinks it's fighting something unusually tough that it sends a signal to your 2nd line of defense, your Adaptive Immune System. The Adaptive Immune System is the heavy artillery. It's the one that makes antibodies, and it attacks in huge masses. When you feel sick, it's because your Adaptive Immune System has declared war.

    The important point is, the Innate Immune System wipes out most diseases before they get very far. Nature is parsimonious, and your body doesn't go to the extra trouble of forming antibodies if you don't need them.

    This means that most people who were exposed to Covid-19 had it wiped out by their Innate Immune System. It never got to the stage where their Adaptive Immune system needed to react, so they don't carry antibodies. It also means A LOT more people could have been exposed to Covid-19 and wiped it out, without realizing they'd even been exposed. What's more, there's no way to check whether you've been exposed via an antibody test because you won't have antibodies, even though you were indeed exposed and your Innate Immune System wiped it out quite handily.

    Unfortunately, this creates a perfect situation in which you can be scared to death by someone pushing an agenda. But Dr. Ryan is hoping most people don't realize the above. He's deliberately trying to scare the crap out of people. He's an MD, and he knows the difference between the Innate and Adaptive immune system, and how they tackle diseases. And as some presumably smart enough to be hired by the WHO, he knows you don't show antibodies to most diseases you've been exposed to, and that this is normal.

    Every doctor knows this.

    You know what you need to look at? Look at the decrease in new infections and deaths. That's your 'herd immunity.'

    Some guy on Twitter posted graphs today in which he showed that Covid-19 was in decline in most US states BEFORE these states started their lockdowns. Unfortunately, I forgot to bookmark the page or I'd have posted a link here. Apparently, almost no one's been looking at this data except for this guy.

    “ Some guy on Twitter posted graphs today in which he showed that Covid-19 was in decline in most US states BEFORE these states started their lockdowns. Unfortunately, I forgot to bookmark the page or I’d have posted a link here.”

    I posted a link to that up thread.

  119. @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    Ooh, oximeters! A fresh new way hypochondriacs can indulge their mental illness.

    #CoronaHoax

    I agree that Steve’s Command is likely to cause more harm than good but I didn’t click the “agree” button because I think you owe him an apology for the schoolyard dirty insult you wrote yesterday or so.

    But yes, Steve does appear to have succumbed to Covid Fear. Then again, FEAR is probably the strongest human impulse after EAT, so we should probably cut each other some slack.

    As an aside, I mentioned at the start of the Covid Panic and I’ll mention again that even though I am not a devotee of the new religion as Steve seems to be, I find that religion generally does people good and also makes them better neighbors and members of society so I don’t mind Steve’s move into this Faith.

    Out of curiosity, am I the only one here who rehards Quarantinism they way I regard Mormonism? As a religion whose precepts are hard to believe but whose practices may have an overall beneficial effect.

    Every generation needs its Jubilee year when it Rethinks Everything.

    In general that Jubilee year was brought about after the death of millions and millions of young people at the literal hands of other young people. OUR generation’s Shake&Stir is brought about by young people willing to forgo sex so that their grandparents can stay alive.

    Yes, it is based upon Much Stupidity but all in all, Quarantinism is probably a “two steps forward one step back” religious movement that will further civilization and humanism over the long term. It took a long time to see how Monotheism did that (during which time Monotheists were happy to kill you for explaining it to them) but it did. Quarantinism will probably have a different name and will take into account many other factors. It is likely a redirection of the good impulses that caused so many young people to really really care about scary trannies they never knew into caring about loving grannies they always did.

    I remain undecided about this generation’s still evolving new religion but so far I prefer it to the previous attempts even as I (not being a believer) flout its practices while mocking its precepts.

  120. I have sleep apnea, severe, with few symptoms (was shocked to learn I had it). My test showed 37 AHI and a minimum oxygen saturation of 66%. The weird part is I’m an insomniac.

    So a primary problem with apnea is the low blood ox, and that’s what CPAP machines address, by forcing oxygen past blockages. As I understand it, in reading about the ventilator issues, it seems CPA machines might even be more helpful in terms of delivering oxygen effectively. The problem is they also aerosolize the covid19 which makes them an issue in hospitals. But if you’re at home, that’s not a problem.

    So as long as you’re worrying (in my view needlessly), call your doctor and ask for a cpap scrip.

  121. OT but totally disgusting:

    YouTube CEO states they will be removing any content that makes recommendations regarding Covid19 that is not in line with WHO. Things like recommending Vitamin C or turmeric (curcumin). Calling it “misinformation”

    Absolutely outrageous.

    https://reclaimthenet.org/youtube-ceo-coronavirus-right-information-misinformation/

    • Agree: res, Mark G.
    • Replies: @Stephen Dodge
    "disgusting" and "outrageous" are mild versions of the words you should have used.
  122. Avoiding the use of a ventilator is a huge win for both patient and the health care system.

    Uh, no its not…

    Medicare is determining that if you have a COVID-19 admission to the hospital you get $13,000. If that COVID-19 patient goes on a ventilator you get $39,000

  123. @LondonBob
    Apparently early use of oxygen is why Germany and Russia have lower death rates, although lower number of ethnic minorities and fat people probably helps too.

    https://twitter.com/OldTownClyde/status/1252548846091001857?s=20

    Apparently early use of oxygen is why Germany and Russia have lower death rates

    Yea… that’s the ticket!

  124. @Jack D
    Most Russian men are dead before the age that Western men die of Covid. Russia is not full of giant nursing homes filled with the senile where Covid can run rampant. Russian men have the good sense to drink and smoke themselves to death long before it gets to that point.

    Jack D is right.

    And I like Russians.

    They don’t smoke the right way, though, you should smoke like Arnold, only good stogies, and only one a day after your partying years are over. Russian men smoke like fiends because the winter is so long.

  125. @Mehen
    OT but totally disgusting:

    YouTube CEO states they will be removing any content that makes recommendations regarding Covid19 that is not in line with WHO. Things like recommending Vitamin C or turmeric (curcumin). Calling it “misinformation”

    Absolutely outrageous.

    https://reclaimthenet.org/youtube-ceo-coronavirus-right-information-misinformation/

    “disgusting” and “outrageous” are mild versions of the words you should have used.

    • Agree: Chrisnonymous
  126. @Joe, Averaged
    Don’t send people to amazon to buy cheap Chinese junk. You can go to another store to buy cheap Chinese junk.

    Don’t send people to [A]mazon to buy cheap Chinese junk.

  127. @Deckin
    There's an iPhone app too--4.99

    I took a quick look and the most popular one, “Pulse Oximeter,” says it’s for recreation/sport, not medical use. Here’s a scientific source advising against its use:

    https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/question-should-smartphone-apps-be-used-as-oximeters-answer-no/

    Apparently iPhones can’t emit the proper type of light to measure blood.

  128. @Deckin
    There's an iPhone app too--4.99

    Thanks bro. You saved me from buying $50.00 worth of Chinese plastic!

  129. Actually it’s a good thing they’re showing their colors so publicly.

    Personally, as a grandson of Auschwitz and Bergen Belsen survivors I don’t like Nazis, but back in 2005 when Google was still great I strongly supported their stubborness with letting the Nazi websites show us the first result for a search of “Jew”. There were weeks worth of media attacks against Google until Google’s defense of “we won’t mess with the algorithm” until they were forced to cave.

    Seven years later they even stood up to President Obama who demanded that they take down that silly “Innocence of Muslims” movie that the administration claimed was causing anti-American sentiment in the Muslim world. They stood up to him for 2 days before they were legally forced to take it down.

    Then the Snowden revelations — done by the perfect man in the perfect way….failed to elicit even a single serious protest by serious people.

    And then all of the ideologically utopian “freedom of speechers”, from the Google Twins to Zuckerberg to the Mozilla people…gave up. And just said, well, the Truthers were right about one thing anyway, the people are sheep and not the great freedom and truth loving folk we thought they were so, okay Chinese government we’ll give you the internet you want. And okay businesses and powerful political and ideological movements, we may as well make this easy and surrender to you every time and make a zillion dollars because, as Koheleth said…”why the hell not?”

    And the coup de gras is this post.

    It’s one of the most important posts of the decade.

    Anybody who has been a fan of Slate Star Codex should know how great a man Scott Alexander is.

    And as he fell on his own sword, he left a document explaining why.

    In short, Democracy+Literacy makes every shit encrusted sheep believe it’s a Individualistic Majestic Lion and, with the accidental aid of Facebook and Twitter, and the culture that tells them that they are free to challenge one of the greatest public philosoohers of our time they drove Scott Alexander, the psychiatrist to a literal nervous breakdown.

    https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/22/rip-culture-war-thread/

    His letter explains why, even if twitter and facebook and google were owned by the Gods, they could do no different than they are doing now.

    Long before Covid the war was lost. Google WANTED to be fair and free but could not and decided tthat instead of having a nervous breakdown, they would submit to the power and just make as much money as they could for as long as the sheeple let them.

    It would be easy to say that the bad guys are Sergei and Mark and Dorsey, but Scott is here to tell you, like Dave Chapelle did, that the enemy isn’t Trump or Youtube, it’s every impulse within each if us that would ruin someone else’s life just to make them shut up. WE, or at least some of “us” are the problem. And the reason why we can’t have nice things.

    Like sharing opinions and facing no more danger than someone else shrugging you off and saying, “well, hey, it’s a free country. You’re entitled to your opinion.”

    https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/22/rip-culture-war-thread/

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Really quite OT


    the enemy isn’t Trump or Youtube, it’s every impulse within each if us that would ruin someone else’s life just to make them shut up.

    Is it possible to convert people to another, different outlook by attempting to reason with them?

    You know: asking people why, if their ideas are good, they are so fearful of someone else expressing their own, possibly different set of ideas?

    Just wondering if the "la la la...can't hear you!" worldview is liable to change, either naturally over time, or through the use of a few well-chosen words.

    Incidentally, your attitude concerning the Nazis and Google search results is commendable and all-too-rare in these times. I long ago saw that trying to ignore people and groups and driving them underground only makes them seem "cool" and serves as a recruiting tool.

    (Also, you can't make light of something if no one else knows about it.)

    Personally, I have always wondered if Google could somehow be bribed/manipulated into showing the:

    Don't be sorry,
    be a smartie!
    Come and join
    the Nazi party!


    clip from Springtime for Hitler as the first result when displaying searches for the word "Nazi." Perhaps the ADL could do a cost/benefit analysis on that? It could save them a lot of money over the long-term if Nazis were to garner an unshakeable camp image.

    "Squuuuuaaad! Camp it, up!"
  130. @Buzz Mohawk

    Buy a Pulse Oximeter
     
    No, Buy Gold, because you are going to pay a terrible price for all this.

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/krI2PdxkRog/maxresdefault.jpg

    And take physical delivery. You don't really have it unless you can hold it in your hand. (And it is a pleasure, denser and heavier than most anything else you have ever held. Heavy like lead or tungsten, but prettier, it is a wonder from the periodic table of the elements.)

  131. We’ve had a pulse ox on order from Walmart for over two weeks now. The only kind left on Amazon and eBay are super sketchy Chinese ones, much like face masks. My husband got ahold of a pulse ox this weekend at the second Walgreens he went to. They also had hand sanitizer!! FYI – Higher end Garmin watches and Vivofits measure pulse ox.

    Pulse ox aside, a doctor in a video I watched advised that if you get winded going across the room to use the bathroom then you need to go to the hospital.

  132. @LondonBob
    They measure your blood oxidation when you do the stress test, it is not a standalone option as it was on older versions of the Samsung app. I score the lowest possible for level of stress.

    “I score the lowest possible for level of stress.”

    The technical term is “Dead”

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar


    “I score the lowest possible for level of stress.”
     
    The technical term is “Dead”
     
    That might depend on how you lived your life...


    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/88/5f/c7/885fc7d572cc30ffc646951b9f926be1.jpg
  133. @Philip Owen
    A spirometer is a good idea too. It measures lung function. Set up a baseline while healthy.

    On teh other hand, tests by teh US Veterans Administration healthcare system show that hydrochloroquinine kills more patients than it saves (as was always obvious if you consdiered all 36 patients in France rather than the 30 who comleted the course).

    https://apnews.com/a5077c7227b8eb8b0dc23423c0bbe2b2?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_medium=APHealthScience&utm_source=Twitter

    They didn’t give zinc for some reason. It’s not even mentioned in the paper.

  134. @UK
    Steve, might I suggest a topic for you to mull over? The CCP worship on Unz is getting embarrassing. It completely misses the two biggest advantages that China currently has and instead credits their inept and heavy-handed government.

    The first advantage that China has is their high IQ and high conscientiousness population. With this natural resource, the CCP has managed to achieve an HDI living standard that is less than Thailand or Algeria or Brazil or Colombia. That is extremely unimpressive.

    The second advantage is that they are sitting in a one time only astonishingly beneficial for the economy demographic sweetspot.

    The ratio in favour of prime earners to dependents is the very best it could ever be. This is a huge deal. More prime earners than dependents is incredible for growth. It also will not last.

    https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2020/

    These are very iSteve style analyses and are completely missed by both the mainstream media and now neglected in dissident circles too.

    The Chinese workforce peaked in 2011.

    Russia is in a similar demographic sweet spot.

    • Replies: @UK
    The workforce peaked then but the percentage in the highest productivity age group is peaking now.

    It is a country in its highest earning years. It will continue to converge with the developed world regardless (because smart conscientious people) but, as this effect goes into reverse, it will slow substantially.

    Meanwhile, the government, sheltered from their ineptness by the ease of growing a country from such a weak position and the beneficial demographics, has been going in the wrong direction. It will find that it needs to shake up a lot or risk failure. And it is not designed to withstand failure at all.

    Furthermore, now that China is considered, through PR, to be some sort of economic equal with the West, it will no longer be treated with the kid gloves reserved for the poor and abject. This is kind of sad as it is still pretty poor, it is just very big. In other words, their size will mean they are now playing the international game on hard mode for the first time.

    And yes, there are a huge number of smart people in China, but their entire management style is instantly recognisable as doomed for anyone who isn't some sort of spaz nerd who is overwhelmed by crude numbers. Imagine working for a company run like China - extreme dishonesty and general fear would abound.

    As Nial Ferguson points out: the best countries are city states (Singapore, Israel, Norway, Iceland and others.) They will succeed in the centrifugal forces of modernity and countries will be ever pulled into somehow becoming more like them. The UK might do well as a sort of hybrid, but God knows about the US, it is an experiment like no other.
  135. @res
    Thanks! That is some impressive work. It looks like it could be incredibly useful for both understanding and managing the response to countermeasures. Let's take a closer look.

    First, a direct link to the charts: https://rt.live/
    Those are currently limited to looking back to March 15th. For most states that is not an issue, but more later.

    This blog post has a detailed discussion of Rt and includes graphs for each state from 3/1 to 4/11.
    http://systrom.com/blog/the-metric-we-need-to-manage-covid-19/
    He also includes some additional analyses. Some interesting points.

    Some states are showing a double dip in early March (see 50 state graphic in blog post). New York is particularly dramatic.

    http://systrom.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/image-2.png

    I wonder if that is real or some kind of statistical artifact. I think it would be helpful to overlay information about various countermeasures by date (e.g. the four shown in these state pages: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york ) on these plots to give some idea of cause and effect (similar to what some of the Kinsa blog posts did).

    He also looks at Rt by state and lockdown status. This version sorts by the high end of the HDI (basically a confidence interval) and he uses it as an argument that non-lockdown states might want to think about this.

    http://systrom.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/image-5.png

    This gives the gory details of his calculations.
    https://github.com/k-sys/covid-19/blob/master/Realtime%20R0.ipynb

    I did not know that one could get such smooth curves of Rt from data that are so noisy. The result must be driven more by the method than by the data. Another method could produce significantly different estimates of Rt. It is common that inverse problems are inherently unstable or ill-posed and they can be solved only when constraints on the class of solutions is imposed. One tries to impose sensible constraints yet to some extent they are always arbitrary. It is good when the constraints are spelled out explicitly. The thing about Bayesian methodology is that the constraints are hidden so one gets a false impression that the solution is unique and kind of natural.

    A related issue is that Rt or Ro from their definition can only be known after the future events happened. Rt is not defined by the past events but by the future events so in principle it can’t be retrieved in real time. There will be a lag time after data. In the plot for NY how many data points he had to be able to retrieve the last Rt? The reason the retrieved curves are so smooth is because in this Bayesian methodology there is a hidden interaction between the past and the future which acausal as if solutions were constrained smooth splines with memory.

    Finally, about the time scale and Ro. Ro is a dimensionless number; it is independent of time. You may have two epidemics with the same Ro which have different exponential growth N(t)=N0*exp(k*t) curves, where the exponent coefficient k is in units inverse of time. k depends on Ro but it depends also on how fast the epidemic spreads. In one population an infected carrier can cause Ro secondary infections in 10 days while in another population and for another disease he can case the same Ro infections but in 15 days. How can one retrieve the same Ro from two different curves? There must be an extra parameter that one must assume or know to retrieve Ro. Is that parameter the same for NY as for CA?

    After some thinking my guess is that k=(Ro-1)/T where T is average time to realize one cycle of Ro infections. Note that when R0=1 then N(t)=const as it should be.

    • Thanks: ic1000
    • Replies: @anon
    Can you explain how in Bayesian modeling the "constraints are hidden"? In my experience, the assumptions in Bayesian modeling are explicitly specified for every parameter. It is in Fisherian statistics that the underlying assumptions are often overlooked and/or unwarranted.
  136. anon[268] • Disclaimer says:

    This means patients can still expel carbon dioxide — and without a buildup of carbon dioxide, patients do not feel short of breath.

    This isn’t how it works, the ratio of CO2 in the bloodstream compared to the outside atmosphere needs to be about 200:1 for oxygen to release from haemoglobin.
    See The Bohr Effect: https://www.normalbreathing.org/co2-bohr-effect/

    Nose breathing filters viruses, bacteria, mouth breathing means no defense at all.
    Leucopor brand hypoallergenic tape across the mouth prevents mouth breathing while asleep.
    https://www.bsnmedical.com/products/wound-care-vascular/category-product-search/acute-wound-care/fixation/leukoporr.html

  137. @Buffalo Joe
    Art, I called our Walmart pharmacy, had them on the shelf. Try a local chemical or cleaning supply company for 99% alcohol and dilute with distilled water to 70%. Apparently 70% is a better sanitizing solution. 99% alcohol is great for cleaning electronic components, so maybe that could be a lead. I get mine from a contractor that cleans PVC pipe with it. Stay safe.

    Try a local chemical or cleaning supply company for 99% alcohol and dilute with distilled water to 70%.

    I have a feeling the Consumer Product Safety Board isn’t about to rap you on the knuckles for using plain tap water instead of distilled.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    Johann, well I was trying to be an elitist, hoi polloi and all that. I mix mine with tap water and surprising, distilled water is hard to find; don't know why. And, I looked up denatured alcohol online and it can be diluted to sanitize, but not to drink, even if you mix it with tonic and a stuffed olive or two. Thank you, stay safe.
  138. @Steve Sailer
    Football players sometimes become ER docs: football players are trained to listen to their coaches on the sidelines and then make fast decisions on the field.

    It's a different skill set than coming up with new solution to a novel problem, but it's a pretty useful skill set if you are in cardiac arrest or whatever.

    It’s a different skill set than coming up with new solution to a novel problem, but it’s a pretty useful skill set if you are in cardiac arrest or whatever.

    If you are in cardiac arrest, you will not be effective as an ER doctor, no matter what your skill set.

    • LOL: moshe
  139. @Bill Jones
    "I score the lowest possible for level of stress."

    The technical term is "Dead"

    “I score the lowest possible for level of stress.”

    The technical term is “Dead”

    That might depend on how you lived your life…

  140. @Steve Sailer
    Football players sometimes become ER docs: football players are trained to listen to their coaches on the sidelines and then make fast decisions on the field.

    It's a different skill set than coming up with new solution to a novel problem, but it's a pretty useful skill set if you are in cardiac arrest or whatever.

    This reminded me of something on here a while back: are the defensive players who have the headset in their helmets any different in ethnic background to defensive players generally?

    There’s not much easy to find online about this, but it seems not. Some fit a “leader” profile, but others don’t and look like they’re just “whoever the middle linebacker is” even if he doesn’t play every snap.

    One who did fit the expected type was Luke Kuechley who just retired at 28.

  141. @Steve Sailer
    Football players sometimes become ER docs: football players are trained to listen to their coaches on the sidelines and then make fast decisions on the field.

    It's a different skill set than coming up with new solution to a novel problem, but it's a pretty useful skill set if you are in cardiac arrest or whatever.

    Steve Sailer wrote:

    “Football players sometimes become ER docs: football players are trained to listen to their coaches on the sidelines and then make fast decisions on the field.”

    Yes, indeed.

    Steve, your points match up perfectly with this article about former UM star defensive end turned ER doc, Chris Hutchinson at Royal Oak Beaumont Hospital (Metro Detroit.)

    “It’s just what you do. You’ve got to do it. It’s part of the job. I’ve got to do my job. I can’t not come to work. Somebody’s got to do this, and this is my role here. Put your mask on and have at it. Is it fun? Absolutely not, but somebody has to do it.”

    By any chance, were you looking at this article?

    https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/college/university-michigan/2020/03/25/this-my-job-er-doctor-ex-wolverine-chris-hutchinson-front-lines-covid-19-battle/5077980002/

  142. UK says:
    @Philip Owen
    The Chinese workforce peaked in 2011.

    Russia is in a similar demographic sweet spot.

    The workforce peaked then but the percentage in the highest productivity age group is peaking now.

    It is a country in its highest earning years. It will continue to converge with the developed world regardless (because smart conscientious people) but, as this effect goes into reverse, it will slow substantially.

    Meanwhile, the government, sheltered from their ineptness by the ease of growing a country from such a weak position and the beneficial demographics, has been going in the wrong direction. It will find that it needs to shake up a lot or risk failure. And it is not designed to withstand failure at all.

    Furthermore, now that China is considered, through PR, to be some sort of economic equal with the West, it will no longer be treated with the kid gloves reserved for the poor and abject. This is kind of sad as it is still pretty poor, it is just very big. In other words, their size will mean they are now playing the international game on hard mode for the first time.

    And yes, there are a huge number of smart people in China, but their entire management style is instantly recognisable as doomed for anyone who isn’t some sort of spaz nerd who is overwhelmed by crude numbers. Imagine working for a company run like China – extreme dishonesty and general fear would abound.

    As Nial Ferguson points out: the best countries are city states (Singapore, Israel, Norway, Iceland and others.) They will succeed in the centrifugal forces of modernity and countries will be ever pulled into somehow becoming more like them. The UK might do well as a sort of hybrid, but God knows about the US, it is an experiment like no other.

  143. anonymous[402] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anon
    The friggin' WHO is on a fear-mongering rampage:

    https://amp-abc-net-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/12161196?usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA=&amp_js_v=0.1#aoh=15872795446561&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc.net.au%2Fnews%2F2020-04-18%2Fwho-unsure-antibodies-protect-against-covid-19-coronavirus%2F12161196

    Dr. Mike Ryan claims that if you have antibodies against Covid-19, there's no proof that they protect you against Covid-19. Well, what the heck did they develop for? What were the antibodies attacking? This is patent nonsense.

    Second, "Dr Ryan also said that even if antibodies were effective, there was little sign that large numbers of people had developed them after contracting coronavirus and were offering so-called "herd immunity" to the broader population."

    You know what? This happens with EVERY disease. Most people who have been exposed to a disease don't develop antibodies to it. This is normal. Dr. Ryan is trying to scare the heck out of the general public who doesn't understand the difference between the Innate Immune System and the Adaptive Immune System.

    Here's a video explaining it in terms a little kid could understand:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzunOgYHeyg

    Your Innate Immune System is your 1st line of defense, and it's very tough. It wipes out every foreign intruder it can find. But it does not form antibodies. It work fine without have to do that.

    It's only when your Innate Immune System thinks it's fighting something unusually tough that it sends a signal to your 2nd line of defense, your Adaptive Immune System. The Adaptive Immune System is the heavy artillery. It's the one that makes antibodies, and it attacks in huge masses. When you feel sick, it's because your Adaptive Immune System has declared war.

    The important point is, the Innate Immune System wipes out most diseases before they get very far. Nature is parsimonious, and your body doesn't go to the extra trouble of forming antibodies if you don't need them.

    This means that most people who were exposed to Covid-19 had it wiped out by their Innate Immune System. It never got to the stage where their Adaptive Immune system needed to react, so they don't carry antibodies. It also means A LOT more people could have been exposed to Covid-19 and wiped it out, without realizing they'd even been exposed. What's more, there's no way to check whether you've been exposed via an antibody test because you won't have antibodies, even though you were indeed exposed and your Innate Immune System wiped it out quite handily.

    Unfortunately, this creates a perfect situation in which you can be scared to death by someone pushing an agenda. But Dr. Ryan is hoping most people don't realize the above. He's deliberately trying to scare the crap out of people. He's an MD, and he knows the difference between the Innate and Adaptive immune system, and how they tackle diseases. And as some presumably smart enough to be hired by the WHO, he knows you don't show antibodies to most diseases you've been exposed to, and that this is normal.

    Every doctor knows this.

    You know what you need to look at? Look at the decrease in new infections and deaths. That's your 'herd immunity.'

    Some guy on Twitter posted graphs today in which he showed that Covid-19 was in decline in most US states BEFORE these states started their lockdowns. Unfortunately, I forgot to bookmark the page or I'd have posted a link here. Apparently, almost no one's been looking at this data except for this guy.

    Please take the time to further comment.

    I think you are really on to something. You should try to get Steve to up post your excellent comment.

    Within the Keto-IF community and certain segments of the Alt-Right / Dissident-Right there is more sophisticated dialectic derived opinion that for the Metabolically healthy Covid-19 poses very little risk but unfortunately a limited and specified lockdown is still warranted.

    For the metabolically healthy their innate immune system is able to fight off Covid-19 completely or at least long enough for the adaptive immune system to kick in and produce antibodies long before the viral load is high or excess inflammation of the “cytokine storm” wreck havoc on the lungs.

    You make the point that there may be lots of very fit people who may have come in contact with Covid-19 yet never produced detectable levels of antibodies. This seems to explain the phenomena of the NBA players and the Icelandic ski vacationers where there have been lower than expected rates of antibody detection and little to no illness in spite of what one should have expected to be very high likelihood of exposure to what is believed to be a high infectious virus.

    I am neither a “Just the flu bro” it is all a conspiracy type like Andrew Anglin or in panic mode like the most of the RightStuff.biz.

    Covid-19 is a crisis, but one that has been exploited heavily by the “Globalists”. Wink!!! Wink!!!

    A continued limited lockdown for the at risk, the elderly especially those in assisted living, immune compromised, diabetic, morbid obese would make sense until herd immunity is achieved.

    But how does one tell this to a collection of overweight Harley riding aging boomers libertarians wanting to relive their Tea Party days and unhealthy blacks and Hispanics that everyone else should be able to go about their lives while they stay at home???

    All of this requires noticing patterns which we know is forbidden.

  144. Anonymous[387] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jack D
    You can still get them from US sellers on Ebay for under $30 with free delivery in a few days. (Amazon Prime is not two days anymore - for a lot of things, MUCH longer). Some of the cheapest ebay sellers are new with little feedback but if you scroll down a little you can find ones with more feedback.

    All of the cheap oximeters seem to be "China" brand. I have no idea how accurate they are or how long they last - QC on Chinese gizmos is not very good so sometimes if you get "a good one" it is pretty good and if you get "a bad one" it's awful, even if they are two samples of the same device.

    <>
    You can still get them from US sellers on Ebay for under $30 with free delivery in a few days. (Amazon Prime is not two days anymore – for a lot of things, MUCH longer).
    <>

    Am I the only one chary about purchasing anything off Amazon at this point?

    Between the purported unsafe working conditions, the imminent/ongoing strikes, and the shipping delays, Amazon is not the place from which I would purchase anything mission-critical. Perhaps it’s just me?

    • Replies: @Jack D

    the purported unsafe working conditions, the imminent/ongoing strikes,
     
    These don't really exist. The union organizers and the Leftist press are trying to make a mountain out of a molehill. Working in an Amazon warehouse was never a great fun job but then again any kind of entry level industrial employment has not been a great fun job since the dawn of the industrial age onward. The workers of Amazon are not dropping like flies due to Covid.

    The only think I really care about is the delivery times and for the most part they have taken the tack of "underpromise and overdeliver" - you will buy an item and it says "delivery by May 5" and it shows up in 3 or 4 days. Not as good as the consistent 2 days BC but not really bad either.

    I am wondering whether an older ex-hospital unit would be better than a piece of Chinese junk? Back in the day the OHMEDA Biox 3700 was the gold standard for oximeters and must have cost thousands of $ new. I'm sure it is built with very high quality hospital grade electronics, no expense spared or shortcuts taken. The thing weighs 15 lbs. And now you can get one for $100:

    https://www.dotmed.com/listing/oximeter-pulse/biox-ohmeda/biox-3700/773256


    OTOH, these things are 30 years old by now. If you are an electronics type guy, it would not be that hard to go over the board and look for bulging or dried out capacitors, overheated components, etc. but if you aren't then these things are probably near their life span despite being well made.

    , @anon
    I haven't bought anything from Amazon, or Amazon-associated physical stores, in several years. I don't know how agreeing with (most of) Steve's views AND patronizing Amazon is compatible.
    So I'm surprised when I read long-time commenters here (whose views I mostly respect) talking about buying stuff from Amazon. Why would you support the enemy just because it's the path of least resistance?
    , @Joe Stalin
    "Between the purported unsafe working conditions, the imminent/ongoing strikes, and the shipping delays, Amazon is not the place from which I would purchase anything mission-critical."

    Think of the workers!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5VMZqgVzRo
  145. anon[122] • Disclaimer says:
    @Spud Boy
    Searching on Amazon for these Pulse Oximeter devices reveals dozens of no name, I'm guessing Chinese, brands, where the reviews sound fake. Don't any reputable U.S. companies make these things?

    South Korea makes reputable pulse oximeters. They are called Samsung Galaxy S8, S9, etc. and many folks have them already, along with the necessary software. Folks who have checked them against “real” pulse oximeters in hospitals claim that they are quite accurate.

    In other news, according to the Youtube Kommissar Wojcicki, WHO’s guidelines are now sacred. WHO? The folks that have been in the Chinese pocket and wrong/lying about so many things?
    Yes, that WHO. If WHO declares that only Chinese pulse oximeters are useful, and you disagree on Youtube, you will be banned.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    The WHO haven't been trustworthy since Keith Moon died before he got old.
  146. @RohadtMagyar

    Because the atmosphere is only 20% oxygen is pretty easy to improve oxygenation, just crank that up to 100% oxygen and now each breath delivers five times as much oxygen.
     
    That's. Not. How. It. Works. In fact, that is exactly how people die.

    You should look up Oxygen Toxicity and the Bohr Effect.

    Oxygen toxicity exists and ideally you give just enough oxygen concentration to keep PaO2 at minimum adequate levels in order to stave it off but sometime the oxygen concentration that is necessary is 100% (and even that might not work). Here is the money quote:

    Life threatening hypoxia must always be relieved even if this requires the use of 100% oxygen for prolonged periods of time.

    http://medind.nic.in/jac/t03/i3/jact03i3p234.pdf

    Suffering side effects from oxygen toxicity is bad, but being dead is even worse. Sometimes in medicine you have no good choices and can only choose the lesser of two evils.

  147. @anon
    South Korea makes reputable pulse oximeters. They are called Samsung Galaxy S8, S9, etc. and many folks have them already, along with the necessary software. Folks who have checked them against "real" pulse oximeters in hospitals claim that they are quite accurate.

    In other news, according to the Youtube Kommissar Wojcicki, WHO's guidelines are now sacred. WHO? The folks that have been in the Chinese pocket and wrong/lying about so many things?
    Yes, that WHO. If WHO declares that only Chinese pulse oximeters are useful, and you disagree on Youtube, you will be banned.

    The WHO haven’t been trustworthy since Keith Moon died before he got old.

  148. @Art Deco
    They really can’t help us, is what this doctor is saying.

    No, he's saying he's busy and doesn't wish to be bothered.

    Go fuck yourself, Art Deco.

  149. @Anonymous
    <>
    You can still get them from US sellers on Ebay for under $30 with free delivery in a few days. (Amazon Prime is not two days anymore – for a lot of things, MUCH longer).
    <>

    Am I the only one chary about purchasing anything off Amazon at this point?

    Between the purported unsafe working conditions, the imminent/ongoing strikes, and the shipping delays, Amazon is not the place from which I would purchase anything mission-critical. Perhaps it's just me?

    the purported unsafe working conditions, the imminent/ongoing strikes,

    These don’t really exist. The union organizers and the Leftist press are trying to make a mountain out of a molehill. Working in an Amazon warehouse was never a great fun job but then again any kind of entry level industrial employment has not been a great fun job since the dawn of the industrial age onward. The workers of Amazon are not dropping like flies due to Covid.

    The only think I really care about is the delivery times and for the most part they have taken the tack of “underpromise and overdeliver” – you will buy an item and it says “delivery by May 5” and it shows up in 3 or 4 days. Not as good as the consistent 2 days BC but not really bad either.

    I am wondering whether an older ex-hospital unit would be better than a piece of Chinese junk? Back in the day the OHMEDA Biox 3700 was the gold standard for oximeters and must have cost thousands of $ new. I’m sure it is built with very high quality hospital grade electronics, no expense spared or shortcuts taken. The thing weighs 15 lbs. And now you can get one for $100:

    https://www.dotmed.com/listing/oximeter-pulse/biox-ohmeda/biox-3700/773256

    OTOH, these things are 30 years old by now. If you are an electronics type guy, it would not be that hard to go over the board and look for bulging or dried out capacitors, overheated components, etc. but if you aren’t then these things are probably near their life span despite being well made.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    These don’t really exist. The union organizers and the Leftist press are trying to make a mountain out of a molehill.

    Ah, yes, I had overlooked that. Unionisation = money for people who do not actually perform any work.


    I’m sure it is built with very high quality hospital grade electronics, no expense spared or shortcuts taken. The thing weighs 15 lbs. And now you can get one for $100:

    While the cheap, Chinese-made oximeters aren't the best in terms of build quality, perhaps they offer a key advantage over older, better-built (but substantially larger, weightier) units: portability.

    True, you aren't likely to get years of service out of a pocket oximeter you pick up on eBay, but the eBay model is, if nothing else, something you can slip into a pocket for when you are walking around.

    (Granted, I can't say I am enthusiastic about lining Chinese pockets after they unleashed this thing in the first place through with their own short-sightedness, but there you are.)
  150. anon[930] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous
    <>
    You can still get them from US sellers on Ebay for under $30 with free delivery in a few days. (Amazon Prime is not two days anymore – for a lot of things, MUCH longer).
    <>

    Am I the only one chary about purchasing anything off Amazon at this point?

    Between the purported unsafe working conditions, the imminent/ongoing strikes, and the shipping delays, Amazon is not the place from which I would purchase anything mission-critical. Perhaps it's just me?

    I haven’t bought anything from Amazon, or Amazon-associated physical stores, in several years. I don’t know how agreeing with (most of) Steve’s views AND patronizing Amazon is compatible.
    So I’m surprised when I read long-time commenters here (whose views I mostly respect) talking about buying stuff from Amazon. Why would you support the enemy just because it’s the path of least resistance?

  151. @utu
    I did not know that one could get such smooth curves of Rt from data that are so noisy. The result must be driven more by the method than by the data. Another method could produce significantly different estimates of Rt. It is common that inverse problems are inherently unstable or ill-posed and they can be solved only when constraints on the class of solutions is imposed. One tries to impose sensible constraints yet to some extent they are always arbitrary. It is good when the constraints are spelled out explicitly. The thing about Bayesian methodology is that the constraints are hidden so one gets a false impression that the solution is unique and kind of natural.

    A related issue is that Rt or Ro from their definition can only be known after the future events happened. Rt is not defined by the past events but by the future events so in principle it can't be retrieved in real time. There will be a lag time after data. In the plot for NY how many data points he had to be able to retrieve the last Rt? The reason the retrieved curves are so smooth is because in this Bayesian methodology there is a hidden interaction between the past and the future which acausal as if solutions were constrained smooth splines with memory.

    Finally, about the time scale and Ro. Ro is a dimensionless number; it is independent of time. You may have two epidemics with the same Ro which have different exponential growth N(t)=N0*exp(k*t) curves, where the exponent coefficient k is in units inverse of time. k depends on Ro but it depends also on how fast the epidemic spreads. In one population an infected carrier can cause Ro secondary infections in 10 days while in another population and for another disease he can case the same Ro infections but in 15 days. How can one retrieve the same Ro from two different curves? There must be an extra parameter that one must assume or know to retrieve Ro. Is that parameter the same for NY as for CA?

    After some thinking my guess is that k=(Ro-1)/T where T is average time to realize one cycle of Ro infections. Note that when R0=1 then N(t)=const as it should be.

    Can you explain how in Bayesian modeling the “constraints are hidden”? In my experience, the assumptions in Bayesian modeling are explicitly specified for every parameter. It is in Fisherian statistics that the underlying assumptions are often overlooked and/or unwarranted.

    • Replies: @utu
    There is a physical model behind it that can be explicitly spelled out how the vector of Rt parameter leads to the vector Nt of daily infections: M: Rt ->Nt, where M is the model. You want to solve the inverse problem M': Nt->Rt where M' is inverse of M. You can't write down explicit equations of the inverse M' so you run a recursive process that minimizes errors between data Nt and M(Rt) where Rt is your estimate in any given step of the recursive process. This can be done with many different methods but because the inverse problem is very sensitive to small difference ∆Nt in data each method may produce significantly different solutions including the ones that look noisy. When you impose the Bayesian framework on this it amounts to additional constraints narrowing down the class of solutions. To really know how well it works and whether it can be trusted simulations must be done where you simulate an epidemic M with assumed Rt, generate Nt and then add errors ∆N(t) and retrieve Rt from N(t)+∆N(t) to see how the solution is sensitive to the errors ∆N(t). I would take a look at

    Real Time Bayesian Estimation of the Epidemic Potential of Emerging Infectious Diseases
    https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0002185

    where the method used by Kevin Systrom is described.
  152. Anonymous[387] • Disclaimer says:
    @moshe
    Actually it's a good thing they're showing their colors so publicly.

    Personally, as a grandson of Auschwitz and Bergen Belsen survivors I don't like Nazis, but back in 2005 when Google was still great I strongly supported their stubborness with letting the Nazi websites show us the first result for a search of "Jew". There were weeks worth of media attacks against Google until Google's defense of "we won't mess with the algorithm" until they were forced to cave.

    Seven years later they even stood up to President Obama who demanded that they take down that silly "Innocence of Muslims" movie that the administration claimed was causing anti-American sentiment in the Muslim world. They stood up to him for 2 days before they were legally forced to take it down.

    Then the Snowden revelations --- done by the perfect man in the perfect way....failed to elicit even a single serious protest by serious people.

    And then all of the ideologically utopian "freedom of speechers", from the Google Twins to Zuckerberg to the Mozilla people...gave up. And just said, well, the Truthers were right about one thing anyway, the people are sheep and not the great freedom and truth loving folk we thought they were so, okay Chinese government we'll give you the internet you want. And okay businesses and powerful political and ideological movements, we may as well make this easy and surrender to you every time and make a zillion dollars because, as Koheleth said..."why the hell not?"

    And the coup de gras is this post.

    It's one of the most important posts of the decade.

    Anybody who has been a fan of Slate Star Codex should know how great a man Scott Alexander is.

    And as he fell on his own sword, he left a document explaining why.

    In short, Democracy+Literacy makes every shit encrusted sheep believe it's a Individualistic Majestic Lion and, with the accidental aid of Facebook and Twitter, and the culture that tells them that they are free to challenge one of the greatest public philosoohers of our time they drove Scott Alexander, the psychiatrist to a literal nervous breakdown.

    https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/22/rip-culture-war-thread/

    His letter explains why, even if twitter and facebook and google were owned by the Gods, they could do no different than they are doing now.

    Long before Covid the war was lost. Google WANTED to be fair and free but could not and decided tthat instead of having a nervous breakdown, they would submit to the power and just make as much money as they could for as long as the sheeple let them.

    It would be easy to say that the bad guys are Sergei and Mark and Dorsey, but Scott is here to tell you, like Dave Chapelle did, that the enemy isn't Trump or Youtube, it's every impulse within each if us that would ruin someone else's life just to make them shut up. WE, or at least some of "us" are the problem. And the reason why we can't have nice things.

    Like sharing opinions and facing no more danger than someone else shrugging you off and saying, "well, hey, it's a free country. You're entitled to your opinion."

    https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/22/rip-culture-war-thread/

    Really quite OT

    the enemy isn’t Trump or Youtube, it’s every impulse within each if us that would ruin someone else’s life just to make them shut up.

    Is it possible to convert people to another, different outlook by attempting to reason with them?

    You know: asking people why, if their ideas are good, they are so fearful of someone else expressing their own, possibly different set of ideas?

    Just wondering if the “la la la…can’t hear you!” worldview is liable to change, either naturally over time, or through the use of a few well-chosen words.

    Incidentally, your attitude concerning the Nazis and Google search results is commendable and all-too-rare in these times. I long ago saw that trying to ignore people and groups and driving them underground only makes them seem “cool” and serves as a recruiting tool.

    (Also, you can’t make light of something if no one else knows about it.)

    Personally, I have always wondered if Google could somehow be bribed/manipulated into showing the:

    Don’t be sorry,
    be a smartie!
    Come and join
    the Nazi party!

    clip from Springtime for Hitler as the first result when displaying searches for the word “Nazi.” Perhaps the ADL could do a cost/benefit analysis on that? It could save them a lot of money over the long-term if Nazis were to garner an unshakeable camp image.

    “Squuuuuaaad! Camp it, up!”

  153. @Johann Ricke

    Try a local chemical or cleaning supply company for 99% alcohol and dilute with distilled water to 70%.
     
    I have a feeling the Consumer Product Safety Board isn't about to rap you on the knuckles for using plain tap water instead of distilled.

    Johann, well I was trying to be an elitist, hoi polloi and all that. I mix mine with tap water and surprising, distilled water is hard to find; don’t know why. And, I looked up denatured alcohol online and it can be diluted to sanitize, but not to drink, even if you mix it with tonic and a stuffed olive or two. Thank you, stay safe.

  154. @Anonymous
    It would be nice if the Prime Minister’s doctors would explain how exactly they treated the world’s most famous CV survivor.

    OMERTA. The Orange Man Bad cult is international.

    Boris did a video address on his twitter right after being discharged from the hospital. In the video...

    1/ His voice is normal. His energy is normal. If he is reading a teleprompter it is an excellent dramatic recitation. Very hard to read a speech that well. If he isn't reading a teleprompter he is some sort of an oratorical genius.

    2/ He's not short of breath.

    3/ He's not coughing or hacking.

    Bannon warroom guys think something's not right with the Boris covid story and the video points to that being possible.t

    If he suddenly starts taking credit for 9/11, I’d begin to think it’s not really him.

  155. @anon
    Can you explain how in Bayesian modeling the "constraints are hidden"? In my experience, the assumptions in Bayesian modeling are explicitly specified for every parameter. It is in Fisherian statistics that the underlying assumptions are often overlooked and/or unwarranted.

    There is a physical model behind it that can be explicitly spelled out how the vector of Rt parameter leads to the vector Nt of daily infections: M: Rt ->Nt, where M is the model. You want to solve the inverse problem M’: Nt->Rt where M’ is inverse of M. You can’t write down explicit equations of the inverse M’ so you run a recursive process that minimizes errors between data Nt and M(Rt) where Rt is your estimate in any given step of the recursive process. This can be done with many different methods but because the inverse problem is very sensitive to small difference ∆Nt in data each method may produce significantly different solutions including the ones that look noisy. When you impose the Bayesian framework on this it amounts to additional constraints narrowing down the class of solutions. To really know how well it works and whether it can be trusted simulations must be done where you simulate an epidemic M with assumed Rt, generate Nt and then add errors ∆N(t) and retrieve Rt from N(t)+∆N(t) to see how the solution is sensitive to the errors ∆N(t). I would take a look at

    Real Time Bayesian Estimation of the Epidemic Potential of Emerging Infectious Diseases
    https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0002185

    where the method used by Kevin Systrom is described.

  156. @Jack D

    It is difficult to know what the quality of this kind of thing is when well-known brands with fancy packaging will tend to inflate their prices to give the impression that they have a premium product, when the insides very likely contain exactly the same integrated circuit chips as the cheap ones.
     
    Generally I agree but

    (1) in the "China" brand one it's probably not even the real name brand chip but a counterfeit reverse engineered copy with the same pin outs - the Chinese will pirate anything and their reverse engineering (and cost/corner cutting) capabilities are amazing. There are some amazing YouTube videos where guys take apart counterfeit phone chargers and such. The Chinese will spend a lot of $ making the outside look perfect but when you crack open the case, the inside of the device is nothing like that of a quality device and shows many shortcuts which reduce safety and which are evident if you test the device.

    (2) or else the chips in the China brand device are the factory rejects of the genuine chips that were not quite up to spec.

    (3) Western brands that do their manufacturing in China spend a huge amount of $ on quality control to keep their China manufacturers honest, from long and bitter experience in what happens when you don't watch the Chinese like hawks. When you buy your $15 oximeter on Aliexpress, there' s no one minding the store and good luck sending it back to Shenzen if it breaks after 3 days.

    Maybe, but even at retail you can buy something like the MAX30100 chip from Maxim Integrated on a breakout board for a few bucks and make your own pulse oximeter using an Arduino. Since ICs are so cheap I wonder if it is even worth making knock offs.

    https://www.maximintegrated.com/en/products/sensors/MAX30100.html

  157. https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/04/marion-county-not-cuyahoga-county-now-leads-ohio-in-reported-coronavirus-cases-heres-why.html

    This massive outbreak in a state prison in Ohio is interesting and may provide a lot of information on how many of those who test positive are symptomatic.

  158. Anonymous[387] • Disclaimer says:
    @Buffalo Joe
    Art, I called our Walmart pharmacy, had them on the shelf. Try a local chemical or cleaning supply company for 99% alcohol and dilute with distilled water to 70%. Apparently 70% is a better sanitizing solution. 99% alcohol is great for cleaning electronic components, so maybe that could be a lead. I get mine from a contractor that cleans PVC pipe with it. Stay safe.

    OT

    Art, I called our Walmart pharmacy, had them on the shelf. Try a local chemical or cleaning supply company for 99% alcohol and dilute with distilled water to 70%. Apparently 70% is a better sanitizing solution.

    Sorry, trying to follow along: are you diluting the 99% alcohol with distilled water strictly in an effort to “stretch” your supply of the alcohol or:

    Apparently 70% is a better sanitizing solution.

    Do you mean to say that a 70% alcohol solution possesses a chemical property that makes it better suited for disinfecting than your original one?

    Er, is it simply a matter of anything over 70% being wasted? I’m afraid I am having trouble grasping how a 70% solution would be superior to a prima facie “stronger” one of 99%.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Pure alcohol hand sanitizer would evaporate too fast to be fully effective. Adding 30% hand lotion slows the evaporation so the alcohol has more time to kill the germs.
    , @Buffalo Joe
    387, I went on line to find out why 70% alcohol (could find it on shelves) was a better sanitizer and the reason are: 99% evaporates to quickly and actually can "freeze" a virus and not enter and destroy it and 70% somehow effects the protein of a virus because it stays on it longer.....or heck just look it up on line. Had nothing to do with stretching it as my source has it in 50 gallon drums. Stay safe.
  159. @Anonymous
    <>
    You can still get them from US sellers on Ebay for under $30 with free delivery in a few days. (Amazon Prime is not two days anymore – for a lot of things, MUCH longer).
    <>

    Am I the only one chary about purchasing anything off Amazon at this point?

    Between the purported unsafe working conditions, the imminent/ongoing strikes, and the shipping delays, Amazon is not the place from which I would purchase anything mission-critical. Perhaps it's just me?

    “Between the purported unsafe working conditions, the imminent/ongoing strikes, and the shipping delays, Amazon is not the place from which I would purchase anything mission-critical.”

    Think of the workers!

  160. @Anonymous
    OT

    Art, I called our Walmart pharmacy, had them on the shelf. Try a local chemical or cleaning supply company for 99% alcohol and dilute with distilled water to 70%. Apparently 70% is a better sanitizing solution.

    Sorry, trying to follow along: are you diluting the 99% alcohol with distilled water strictly in an effort to "stretch" your supply of the alcohol or:

    Apparently 70% is a better sanitizing solution.

    Do you mean to say that a 70% alcohol solution possesses a chemical property that makes it better suited for disinfecting than your original one?

    Er, is it simply a matter of anything over 70% being wasted? I'm afraid I am having trouble grasping how a 70% solution would be superior to a prima facie "stronger" one of 99%.

    Pure alcohol hand sanitizer would evaporate too fast to be fully effective. Adding 30% hand lotion slows the evaporation so the alcohol has more time to kill the germs.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Ah, I see now. Thank you for taking the time to explain.
  161. Anonymous[387] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jack D

    the purported unsafe working conditions, the imminent/ongoing strikes,
     
    These don't really exist. The union organizers and the Leftist press are trying to make a mountain out of a molehill. Working in an Amazon warehouse was never a great fun job but then again any kind of entry level industrial employment has not been a great fun job since the dawn of the industrial age onward. The workers of Amazon are not dropping like flies due to Covid.

    The only think I really care about is the delivery times and for the most part they have taken the tack of "underpromise and overdeliver" - you will buy an item and it says "delivery by May 5" and it shows up in 3 or 4 days. Not as good as the consistent 2 days BC but not really bad either.

    I am wondering whether an older ex-hospital unit would be better than a piece of Chinese junk? Back in the day the OHMEDA Biox 3700 was the gold standard for oximeters and must have cost thousands of $ new. I'm sure it is built with very high quality hospital grade electronics, no expense spared or shortcuts taken. The thing weighs 15 lbs. And now you can get one for $100:

    https://www.dotmed.com/listing/oximeter-pulse/biox-ohmeda/biox-3700/773256


    OTOH, these things are 30 years old by now. If you are an electronics type guy, it would not be that hard to go over the board and look for bulging or dried out capacitors, overheated components, etc. but if you aren't then these things are probably near their life span despite being well made.

    These don’t really exist. The union organizers and the Leftist press are trying to make a mountain out of a molehill.

    Ah, yes, I had overlooked that. Unionisation = money for people who do not actually perform any work.

    I’m sure it is built with very high quality hospital grade electronics, no expense spared or shortcuts taken. The thing weighs 15 lbs. And now you can get one for $100:

    While the cheap, Chinese-made oximeters aren’t the best in terms of build quality, perhaps they offer a key advantage over older, better-built (but substantially larger, weightier) units: portability.

    True, you aren’t likely to get years of service out of a pocket oximeter you pick up on eBay, but the eBay model is, if nothing else, something you can slip into a pocket for when you are walking around.

    (Granted, I can’t say I am enthusiastic about lining Chinese pockets after they unleashed this thing in the first place through with their own short-sightedness, but there you are.)

  162. Anonymous[387] • Disclaimer says:
    @Steve Sailer
    Pure alcohol hand sanitizer would evaporate too fast to be fully effective. Adding 30% hand lotion slows the evaporation so the alcohol has more time to kill the germs.

    Ah, I see now. Thank you for taking the time to explain.

  163. @Anon
    Here's a good website with a graph that gives you an idea of the rate at which Covid-19 is vanishing from the country. He's measuring the Rt, and when Rt falls below 1, that means the virus will die out. At this point, 30 US states have an Rt below 1, meaning the virus is vanishing from these states. 7 more states are at 1.0 and 1.1, which means they're close to the tipping point of falling below. It's very enlightening to compare today's results on the scale to the one 3 weeks ago. I recommend people try it.

    https://rt.live/

    Note that they just made a major model update (says 4/23 on the site). I have not looked at that in death, but it seems to have changed the double peak in New York in early March.

  164. @Jonathan Mason

    Bannon warroom guys think something’s not right with the Boris covid story and the video points to that being possible.t
     
    Considering the number of people involved in treating him at St. Thomas's Hospital--nurses, doctors, administrators, pharmacists, security, respiratory therapists who would have seen his medical record and vital signs--and no doubt their familes, spouses, lovers, partners who would probably be in the know if he was faking it, I really doubt that it was faked.

    It is not like the vast majority of National Health employees are "Always Borisers". If he was faking it, someone would have spilled the beans.

    If he was faking it nobody would have seen anything and there would be no one to debunk it.

  165. @Lugash
    I bought a handful of them and doled them out to family and friends as the pandemic kicked off. Youtube pandemic star Dr. John Campbell has a video on how to use them.

    By the way, he’s not a doctor, he’s a nurse with a EdD degree or something. Some nurses who get PhDs or EdDs demand to be called “doctor”. They know what they are doing. (Not sure Campbell refers to himself like that though.)

    • Replies: @Lugash
    He's been upfront that he doesn't hold a medical doctorate and in most of the media interviews I've seen he's pointed that out. I'm pretty sure that his doctorate was in a research area, not the UK equivalent of America's bullshit EdD.

    I'd see him for any ailment over NYC's health commissioner:

    https://twitter.com/NYCHealthCommr/status/1226508570646269954
  166. @anonanonanon
    There will be a run on pulse oximeters.

    Many people have blood pressure cuffs. Is it possible to track BP and heart rate instead? Would they noticeably increase as blood oxygen levels fall?

    Of course, getting people to use BP cuffs properly is a problem. Natural test variability because of that may overwhelm a trend, but assuming you know how to properly use one....

    Some smart phones can be used as a pulse oximeter.

  167. @Jack D
    I don' think that they would intubate you in the ER unless you came in not breathing at all. Normally they would send you to the ICU and the ICU docs would make the decision to intubate.

    At the beginning of this epidemic they assumed that Covid was like other respiratory diseases and they would need lots and lots of ventilators which would outrun the supply (even now they are working furiously on building ventilators that they will never use). It's only thru experience that they have now realized that in many or most cases it's better not to intubate for Covid. In any novel disease it take a while to hit upon the best treatment plan. Unfortunately, in the interim many people die from having received the wrong treatment. Medicine inches forward one corpse at a time.

    I think American doctors were misled by the Chinese and Italian experiences. Seeing people were on vents in the news predisposed them to think vents were the solution.

  168. @Anonymous
    OT

    Art, I called our Walmart pharmacy, had them on the shelf. Try a local chemical or cleaning supply company for 99% alcohol and dilute with distilled water to 70%. Apparently 70% is a better sanitizing solution.

    Sorry, trying to follow along: are you diluting the 99% alcohol with distilled water strictly in an effort to "stretch" your supply of the alcohol or:

    Apparently 70% is a better sanitizing solution.

    Do you mean to say that a 70% alcohol solution possesses a chemical property that makes it better suited for disinfecting than your original one?

    Er, is it simply a matter of anything over 70% being wasted? I'm afraid I am having trouble grasping how a 70% solution would be superior to a prima facie "stronger" one of 99%.

    387, I went on line to find out why 70% alcohol (could find it on shelves) was a better sanitizer and the reason are: 99% evaporates to quickly and actually can “freeze” a virus and not enter and destroy it and 70% somehow effects the protein of a virus because it stays on it longer…..or heck just look it up on line. Had nothing to do with stretching it as my source has it in 50 gallon drums. Stay safe.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Had nothing to do with stretching it as my source has it in 50 gallon drums.

    Yes, I understand how it works now.

    Thank you for the reply.
  169. @Chrisnonymous
    By the way, he's not a doctor, he's a nurse with a EdD degree or something. Some nurses who get PhDs or EdDs demand to be called "doctor". They know what they are doing. (Not sure Campbell refers to himself like that though.)

    He’s been upfront that he doesn’t hold a medical doctorate and in most of the media interviews I’ve seen he’s pointed that out. I’m pretty sure that his doctorate was in a research area, not the UK equivalent of America’s bullshit EdD.

    I’d see him for any ailment over NYC’s health commissioner:

  170. Anonymous[387] • Disclaimer says:
    @Buffalo Joe
    387, I went on line to find out why 70% alcohol (could find it on shelves) was a better sanitizer and the reason are: 99% evaporates to quickly and actually can "freeze" a virus and not enter and destroy it and 70% somehow effects the protein of a virus because it stays on it longer.....or heck just look it up on line. Had nothing to do with stretching it as my source has it in 50 gallon drums. Stay safe.

    Had nothing to do with stretching it as my source has it in 50 gallon drums.

    Yes, I understand how it works now.

    Thank you for the reply.

  171. @ic1000
    A prediction of your model is that (as shown in the Wiki free-dive graphs), blood CO2 will drop long before blood O2 drops in pre-crisis Covid-19 patients. And that this pattern is different from the "standard" about-to-enter-into-respiratory-distress syndromes.

    Has anybody published or commented on this, either way?

    Not to my knowledge. Not my model, exactly, but the similarities between the phenomenon described in the doctor’s article, and what I knew of free-diving and hyperventilation, were striking, so I figured I’d highlight them.

  172. @B36
    Those graphs make me wonder how our Plunge for Distance athletes have fared during this pandemic.

    A+ iSteve lore.

  173. I bought one in January. (Boast)

    Along with reading the populist right at iSteve, I also read the populist left (or are they eco-puritans?) at Peak Prosperity. They had the pulse oximeter recommendation in January.

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