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Bumhunting as the Economic Paradigm of the 21st Century
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Commenter Olorin has been using the term “dolt wrangling” to describe what appears to be one of the central methods of getting rich in the 21st Century: clever guys with spreadsheets offer attractive-seeming but implausible bets to less clever folks: subprime mortgages in the last decade, subprime car loans now, for-profit colleges financed by government loans, payday loans, casinos, and so forth. But there’s also a nonprofit side to dolt wrangling as well: refugee services and the like.

Another term for the the general approach might be the poker term “bum hunting.” From Urban Dictionary:

Bum Hunter: Professional online poker player who only plays against very weak opponents avoiding games with other regular players at all costs.

From the pre-online day of poke, there were the terms sharks and fishes or suckers. Matt Damon narrates in the 1998 poker movie Rounders:

Listen, here’s the thing. If you can’t spot the sucker in your first half hour at the table, then you ARE the sucker.

In the NYT Magazine, Jay Caspian Kang writes about the growth of the Daily Fantasy Sports industry – in which bettors pick out lineups of professional athletes and then are rewarded based on how well they play in today’s game — out of the wreckage of the online poker industry:

How the Daily Fantasy Sports Industry Turns Fans Into Suckers

… “Bumhunting” is a word that comes from the poker world. It means seeking out an inexperienced player and mercilessly exploiting him for all he’s worth. Bumhunters are pariahs because they turn what can be a cerebral, competitive game into its most cynical iteration, and, in the process, discourage that new player from ever coming back. But poker has built-in safeguards against rampant bumhunting — new players tend to play at lower limits, which make it harder for bumhunters to take in huge profits. The bumhunter’s dream is to play thousands of games of poker a day against a never-ending line of fresh, inexperienced newbies. He falls short of that lofty goal because he has to actually bet, raise or fold his hands – he can play multiple tables at once, but he cannot fully automate his bumhunting.

In the game lobbies of DraftKings and FanDuel, however, sharks are free to flood the marketplace with thousands of entries every day, luring inexperienced, bad players into games in which they are at a sizable disadvantage. … A recent McKinsey study showed that in the first half of the 2015 Major League Baseball season, 91 percent of the prize money was won by a mere 1.3 percent of the players.

In their escalating legal battles, DraftKings and FanDuel have used these statistics to bolster their argument that D.F.S. is a game of skill, not of chance: How could a contest in which the same people win nearly all the time not be the ultimate test of skill? DraftKings and FanDuel have each tried to prove that the act of projecting player performance and selecting a lineup takes more thought and expertise than, say, playing a poker hand. …

While it’s true that some of the skill required to win in DraftKings and FanDuel lies in statistical modeling, general sports knowledge and due diligence, it’s also true that it’s nearly impossible to make a net positive return on investment without bumhunting. You have to win roughly 53 percent of your bets to beat the “rake,” another poker term for the roughly 10 percent service fee DraftKings and FanDuel take out of each wager. The most efficient way to hit that number is to play as many bad opponents as possible.

Last March, when maxdalury, a player named Saahil Sud, used a script [computer program] that enabled him to adjust most of his 400 lineups in less than an hour, the community took notice. Sud was reacting to the breaking news that Channing Frye, usually a reserve forward for the Orlando Magic, would be starting in place of the injured Nikola Vucevic. Sud won first, third, fourth and seventh place in a big DraftKings competition that night and took home hundreds of thousands of dollars. The speed with which he made the adjustments caused many within the D.F.S. community to protest. How could they be reasonably expected to compete if one of the players was using a tool that allowed him to both blanket the field with entries and avoid the work and hassle of manually adjusting his lineups to reflect late-breaking news? What’s worse, these scripts were not supposed to be used under DraftKing’s terms of service.

In July, after months of review, instead of banning scripting, or at least forcefully regulating it, as the D.F.S. community would have liked, both DraftKings and FanDuel announced that they would change their policies to permit some scripting. …

“Your average Joe sees a commercial for daily fantasy sports, signs up, plays and loses,” Harber wrote. “He has no idea his games are being sniped by professional power users with access to automated processes and optimization software. He has no idea that the large-field tournament he’s playing in features power users with hundreds of unique lineups, all optimized using third-party software. In truth, D.F.S. is more like the stock market, with athletes instead of commodities. No new player attempting to trade stocks has any shot at success without a sizable amount of training.”

Harber continued: “I believe the major sites are fully aware of these competitive issues, yet they continue to do nothing about them because of the high amount of rake the power users are bringing in for them. As long as they can spend advertising money to bring fresh meat to the table, the power users will eat up the new players extremely fast by using their competitive advantages. No one is saying that better players should not win money off worse players, but it should not be at this rate and it should not be with misleading advertisements that prey on consumer confidence. Everyone does not have an equal chance, and everyone is not playing on the same field. …

Knowledge about sports will always be the main sorting mechanism for the types of dudes (FanDuel reports that 95 percent of its contestants are male) who play games like D.F.S., and there’s certainly nothing wrong — especially morally wrong — with putting some money on it, but there is a point where rampant bumhunting turns a gambling economy into a predatory market.

One of the reasons that promoting mass immigration is so respectable is because there’s a widespread assumption that The Economy needs more fresh meat. Sure, a lot of these refugees from cousin marriage cultures look like kind of inbred and mentally slow, but more dolts to wrangle is a goal.

 
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  1. Guess which industry has all of a sudden moved quickly and heavily into the lobbying business.

  2. It’s been a while since I’ve played poker competitively, but It’s widely excepted that pro poker players depend on finding bad players, not simply learning to beat good players. I believe “bumhunting” had an additional constraint, like taking this to an extreme in Heads Up games.

    I looked into DFS a little over a year ago. As described here, It suffers from what I thought of as, the checkbox problem. You do one analysis and check the box on every game you want to enter. This contrasts from poker in that you don’t have to make many decisions per match. This means there’s no room for middle limit players like in poker.

    That said, I didn’t see much evidence of bumhunting, with the top player simply entering every game available. It also appeared some highly profitable players had no knowledge of sports and were competing solely with analytics, which was my hope.

  3. bumhunting sounds like the baracky economy.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    bumhunting sounds like the baracky economy.
     
    Or the Clinton Administration. (The first one, that is. And only one, let's hope.)
    , @Palerider1861
    bumhunting is what baracky does.
  4. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    There was a good article last year in The Atlantic about young poker players who got good playing a lot during the online poker boom of the 2000s now making a living bum hunting in real casinos after the poker sites were shut down:

    http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/05/where-the-card-sharks-feed/359807/

    Fish abound at Maryland Live, home to the hottest new poker room on the East Coast. Maryland Live is a casino-and-entertainment complex in Hanover, Maryland, adjacent to the Arundel Mills mall. Open 24 hours a day, seven days a week, it offers thousands of slot machines and 177 table games, including blackjack, roulette, craps, and mini baccarat. The poker room, which opened on August 28, 2013, has 52 tables, making it one of the biggest rooms outside of Las Vegas. According to Bravo Poker—an app that tells you how many tables are open for business at any time of day or night in nearly every room in every casino in every state in America—there are usually more high-stakes games running at Maryland Live than at the world-famous Borgata, in Atlantic City. Even pros from Florida, who like to boast of their state’s sunny weather, low taxes, partying tourists, and self-renewing population of old white guys, now come to Maryland Live in the dead of winter. The fishing is that good there.

    Like any complex ecosystem, a poker room offers much more than a binary relationship between predators and prey. John Calvin (not his real name) swims somewhere in the middle. He is a grinder, a cautious type who doesn’t bluff that often or do anything hair-raisingly spectacular in tight situations, and who makes his living by doggedly adhering to the odds against lesser players. He got his start making a few dollars a hand on the Web site PartyPoker, then graduated to long weekends of live play at the Borgata before taking up residence at a casino poker room in Charles Town, West Virginia. These days, he commutes from his home, in Washington, D.C., to Maryland Live, where he feeds on fish who are happy to lose a few hundred dollars an hour playing No Limit Texas Hold ’Em—the poker player’s game of choice since 2003, when the great American online-poker boom of the aughts took off.

    In January, just after the start of the new year, I visited Maryland Live with Calvin. In a gray sweatshirt and jeans, bald and wearing thin-rimmed black glasses, he looked like a leisure-time version of the corporate strategist he had been in a former life, before he ditched the full-time number-crunching gig and took up poker. As we entered, he rubbed his head, as if for luck, and peered through his glasses at the biggest kettle of fish in North America—which on any given day might include local small-business owners, bored retirees, college kids, and the occasional big-name donator, or “whale.” Among the whales we spotted that afternoon were a red-faced, choleric guy who runs a local charter-boat business, and a shaky-looking Asian guy in an Orioles cap who I was told had donated well over $100,000 during the past few months. Explaining the presence of the Asian guy, Calvin gestured over to a sweet-looking kid in a gray hoodie at the next table and said, “Merson must have got him here.”

    • Replies: @MarkinLA
    Shut down or just ran out of suckers. While watching the march madness I talked to a few guys waiting to get a spot in the poker room. They said only an idiot plays on-line poker. They knew first-hand about people using their cell phones to share their hands with others in the game to screw some player.
  5. @newrouter
    bumhunting sounds like the baracky economy.

    bumhunting sounds like the baracky economy.

    Or the Clinton Administration. (The first one, that is. And only one, let’s hope.)

    • Replies: @newrouter
    the movie "the sting" could be interpreted as the "coalition of the fringes" vs the "man"
  6. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Much of the Internet Economy seems to involve some degree of bumhunting. At the high end, it’s suckering VCs out of money. At the lower end, sites like Business Insider frequently run stories about some young guy who left his boring job, made lots of money Online, and now travels the world. When you dig deeper though, often you find that these guys made money by writing advice guides about How To Make Money Online And Become Rich and managed to get a lot of people to buy it. The guides are completely bogus, have no substance, and are just a bunch of vague generalities, but there are enough people online that you can peddle enough of them if you’re lucky to make decent money.

    There’s some overlap with the HBD-sphere, as some PUA artists have made money this way selling PU guides and some right-wing writers and advice gurus have made money with bad literature and bodybuilding/success self-help guides.

    • Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    Just prior to the internet Infomercial king Don LaPrie made gazillions off of the "You can earn money and become rich overnight". Unfortunately it all caught up for him when he tried to sell bogus multivitamins and the Feds got a little curious. He was indicted and eventually convicted for fraud. LaPrie hung himself in his cell ca. 2011. Wonder whatever became of those late night infomercials, where anyone can make money just like that?
  7. Well they will destroy their business if they allow scripting. Scripting destroys any online game. People quickly decide it makes no sense to play against some semi-literate moron with a script. If the DFS companies want to succeed long-term they’ll have to forbid scripting, and force successful players to play against each other while keeping them out of the noob areas. In other words they’ll have to tier their product.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    There are many games/sports (e.g. chess, fencing) where the players are tiered or rated and only players of comparable skill play each other - otherwise it is not sporting or fair at all. If your past results show that you have a high level of skill, you are promoted out of the junior varsity and permitted only to play with the other big boys. The 1.3% of sharks who are taking home all the money should be playing only with their fellow sharks and leave the minnows alone.

    This is assuming that the game operators are interested in something resembling fairness and not just fleecing the rubes, but I suspect otherwise.

    , @snorlax
    Because of the nature of the game (more losers than winners), they figure the word of mouth is always going to be negative, so better to have 100 guys who win $800,000 to put in their commercials than 800,000 guys who win $100 to brag to their friends.
  8. …they continue to do nothing about them because of the high amount of rake the power users are bringing in for them.

    I regularly drive by pawn shops; liquor stores; stores advertising cigarettes and lottery tickets; casinos; overpriced gift shops; kitschy tourist stops; payday loan storefronts; X-rated stores and their accouterments; corners for “dealing”. I’ll have to add fantasy sports betting to my route.

    • Replies: @Ttjy

    I regularly drive by pawn shops; liquor stores; stores advertising cigarettes and lottery tickets; casinos; overpriced gift shops; kitschy tourist stops; payday loan storefronts; X-rated stores and their accouterments; corners for “dealing”. I’ll have to add fantasy sports betting to my route.
     
    I would include restaurants and bars. Way overpriced. No reason to go unless you are out of town.
  9. I picture the guys losing money on those sites being a lot like the brother in law character from Steve’s story “Unreal Estate”. However, if they are losing to guys named Saahil Sud… I’m conflicted.

  10. Seems like dolt-wrangling and bum-hunting are kind of the flip side of the same coin. The bums in this case are the casual fantasy sports fan and the dolts are the stock investors who put their money in shares of the fantasy. DraftKings and FanDuel pump up their short-term growth numbers by catering to bum-hunters which lures in the dolts. But it won’t take long for the bums to get sick of the game, so the growth will turn out to be fools gold.

  11. @Anonymous
    There was a good article last year in The Atlantic about young poker players who got good playing a lot during the online poker boom of the 2000s now making a living bum hunting in real casinos after the poker sites were shut down:

    http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/05/where-the-card-sharks-feed/359807/

    Fish abound at Maryland Live, home to the hottest new poker room on the East Coast. Maryland Live is a casino-and-entertainment complex in Hanover, Maryland, adjacent to the Arundel Mills mall. Open 24 hours a day, seven days a week, it offers thousands of slot machines and 177 table games, including blackjack, roulette, craps, and mini baccarat. The poker room, which opened on August 28, 2013, has 52 tables, making it one of the biggest rooms outside of Las Vegas. According to Bravo Poker—an app that tells you how many tables are open for business at any time of day or night in nearly every room in every casino in every state in America—there are usually more high-stakes games running at Maryland Live than at the world-famous Borgata, in Atlantic City. Even pros from Florida, who like to boast of their state’s sunny weather, low taxes, partying tourists, and self-renewing population of old white guys, now come to Maryland Live in the dead of winter. The fishing is that good there.

    Like any complex ecosystem, a poker room offers much more than a binary relationship between predators and prey. John Calvin (not his real name) swims somewhere in the middle. He is a grinder, a cautious type who doesn’t bluff that often or do anything hair-raisingly spectacular in tight situations, and who makes his living by doggedly adhering to the odds against lesser players. He got his start making a few dollars a hand on the Web site PartyPoker, then graduated to long weekends of live play at the Borgata before taking up residence at a casino poker room in Charles Town, West Virginia. These days, he commutes from his home, in Washington, D.C., to Maryland Live, where he feeds on fish who are happy to lose a few hundred dollars an hour playing No Limit Texas Hold ’Em—the poker player’s game of choice since 2003, when the great American online-poker boom of the aughts took off.

    In January, just after the start of the new year, I visited Maryland Live with Calvin. In a gray sweatshirt and jeans, bald and wearing thin-rimmed black glasses, he looked like a leisure-time version of the corporate strategist he had been in a former life, before he ditched the full-time number-crunching gig and took up poker. As we entered, he rubbed his head, as if for luck, and peered through his glasses at the biggest kettle of fish in North America—which on any given day might include local small-business owners, bored retirees, college kids, and the occasional big-name donator, or “whale.” Among the whales we spotted that afternoon were a red-faced, choleric guy who runs a local charter-boat business, and a shaky-looking Asian guy in an Orioles cap who I was told had donated well over $100,000 during the past few months. Explaining the presence of the Asian guy, Calvin gestured over to a sweet-looking kid in a gray hoodie at the next table and said, “Merson must have got him here.”

    Shut down or just ran out of suckers. While watching the march madness I talked to a few guys waiting to get a spot in the poker room. They said only an idiot plays on-line poker. They knew first-hand about people using their cell phones to share their hands with others in the game to screw some player.

    • Replies: @Sparkling Wiggle
    Collusion among players in online poker is difficult to do. Even more difficult to do profitably. Yet even more difficult to do profitably without getting caught. And impossible to do consistently, profitably, and without getting caught. A high schooler could design a script to detect it.

    This assumes that we're talking about regular players and not insiders as in the Absolute Poker/Ultimate Bet superuser scandal.
  12. Libertarians point out that if you ban gambling, like much else, it will just go underground. But I think it’s better to have it underground, because look at the message having it legal sends. To some, it’s the message that “you can get something for nothing.” To others, it’s the message that it’s okay to take advantage of stupid people. It’s preferable that it exist only in dingy back-rooms.

    This reminds me of an idea I had for a scheme. Create a game which is largely a game of chance but trick people into thinking it’s a game of strategy/skill. Set up a website for the game and charge people a flat fee, per a period of time, to play it, so that after the fee is paid the expected value of their winnings would be 0. Only a few would lose a lot playing the game and only a few would win a lot. The problem with games of skill is that clueless people would get discouraged if they are consistently losing money.

    Many children’s games are largely games of chance which the children end up thinking are games of skill. Crucial to creating the illusion would be to give the player lots of options but make sure that no option is superior. To create the illusion that strategy matters you’d create lots of websites advocating one strategy or another with bogus mathematical reasoning behind it. Another way to get publicity for it would be to incite a moral panic about children playing the game, made easier if the game were designed so as to appeal to them. It might even start out as a children’s game played for virtual money, with the gambling added later.

    • Replies: @Ttjy

    Libertarians point out that if you ban gambling, like much else, it will just go underground. But I think it’s better to have it underground, because look at the message having it legal sends. To some, it’s the message that “you can get something for nothing.” To others, it’s the message that it’s okay to take advantage of stupid people. It’s preferable that it exist only in dingy back-rooms.
     
    I agree. Casinos are a disgraceful businesses that take advantage of people's addictions.

    The book The Power of Habit stated the the modern slot machine is the greatest mind manipulator of all time. They set it so people just get enough winnings to make them keep playing, but eventually lose. It activates a certain part of the brain. Throw in people who are susceptible to addiction and you make them lose big bucks.

    I think it was the book Going Postal that said casinos are officially sanctioned fleecing schemes.

    The lottery is another joke. Either raise taxes or cut spending.

    , @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    Hold it hold it hold it. That would be among the worst things to do regarding gambling. If it goes underground it wouldn't be too long before the Mob took it over again. If you made a bet and lost and couldn't pay the gambling debt, you may have to pay for it....literally in other ways that aren't to your liking. At least when its legal you don't have the quite literal threat of having to pay up; you'd just go bankrupt, but you wouldn't be sleeping with the fishes.
  13. @Reg Cæsar

    bumhunting sounds like the baracky economy.
     
    Or the Clinton Administration. (The first one, that is. And only one, let's hope.)

    the movie “the sting” could be interpreted as the “coalition of the fringes” vs the “man”

  14. What’s the saying about a fool and his money?

    Some people are just dying to give it away. No sense in trying to stop them. Me? I’m a transactional guy. My favorite betting game in a casino is the bar. I win every time I put money in.

    • Replies: @DCThrowback
    yeah, but you're just renting those winnings bro
  15. @CAL
    Well they will destroy their business if they allow scripting. Scripting destroys any online game. People quickly decide it makes no sense to play against some semi-literate moron with a script. If the DFS companies want to succeed long-term they'll have to forbid scripting, and force successful players to play against each other while keeping them out of the noob areas. In other words they'll have to tier their product.

    There are many games/sports (e.g. chess, fencing) where the players are tiered or rated and only players of comparable skill play each other – otherwise it is not sporting or fair at all. If your past results show that you have a high level of skill, you are promoted out of the junior varsity and permitted only to play with the other big boys. The 1.3% of sharks who are taking home all the money should be playing only with their fellow sharks and leave the minnows alone.

    This is assuming that the game operators are interested in something resembling fairness and not just fleecing the rubes, but I suspect otherwise.

    • Replies: @Prof. Woland
    Golf and Tennis are examples of games where it is typically more fun to play someone better than you. It is also much harder to improve when you play against inferiors.
    , @gruff
    "Almost all the great popular sports of the world come from Britain. But what Britain has not been able to export is the amateur ethos of the game. Most foreigners, and now many Britons, want to win at any cost within the rules; and they keep to the rules only because a game without rules is war."

    - John Fowles, The Aristos, 9:68
  16. paul newman was bumhunting in the “the sting”.

    • Replies: @Harry Baldwin
    I read the book The Sting was based on, David Maurer's The Big Con: The Story of the Confidence Man. One of his interesting observations is that con artists themselves are generally easy to con, as was depicted in The Sting when the Redford character quickly loses his money to a rigged roulette wheel. Maurer said that few con artists were able to hold onto their winnings for long.
  17. I think it is no surprise that tradition western Christian culture frowned on, if not prohibited things like ursury and gambling. There was an understanding that there needed to be limits on the bright being able to take advantage of the dim, lest it undercut the society, and gambling and ursury or clearly great methods to take money from the weak minded. It is really no different than the belief that men should not take advantage of women, children or the elderly because they are weaker. This was tecognized as behaving in a civilized manner.

    • Agree: Clyde
    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    ...Christian culture frowned on, if not prohibited things like ursury and gambling.
     
    Dressing up like a bear?
    , @anonguy

    I think it is no surprise that tradition western Christian culture frowned on, if not prohibited things like ursury and gambling. There was an understanding that there needed to be limits on the bright being able to take advantage of the dim, lest it undercut the society, and gambling and ursury or clearly great methods to take money from the weak minded. It is really no different than the belief that men should not take advantage of women, children or the elderly because they are weaker. This was tecognized as behaving in a civilized manner.
     
    Public lotteries are effectively a tax on people with low mathematical skills.
  18. @MarkinLA
    Shut down or just ran out of suckers. While watching the march madness I talked to a few guys waiting to get a spot in the poker room. They said only an idiot plays on-line poker. They knew first-hand about people using their cell phones to share their hands with others in the game to screw some player.

    Collusion among players in online poker is difficult to do. Even more difficult to do profitably. Yet even more difficult to do profitably without getting caught. And impossible to do consistently, profitably, and without getting caught. A high schooler could design a script to detect it.

    This assumes that we’re talking about regular players and not insiders as in the Absolute Poker/Ultimate Bet superuser scandal.

    • Replies: @anonguy

    Collusion among players in online poker is difficult to do. Even more difficult to do profitably. Yet even more difficult to do profitably without getting caught. And impossible to do consistently, profitably, and without getting caught. A high schooler could design a script to detect it.
     
    Why is this? I'm genuinely curious, having zero experience with online poker.
    , @MarkinLA
    I don't play but am just passing on the information from people who claim they know people who collude on-line. I suppose they agree to log onto the system at exactly the same time and for the same game. They know each others handles so they know if they are on the same table.

    I bet the guys playing fantasy didn't think there was anyway to scam that either.
  19. @bomag
    ...they continue to do nothing about them because of the high amount of rake the power users are bringing in for them.

    I regularly drive by pawn shops; liquor stores; stores advertising cigarettes and lottery tickets; casinos; overpriced gift shops; kitschy tourist stops; payday loan storefronts; X-rated stores and their accouterments; corners for "dealing". I'll have to add fantasy sports betting to my route.

    I regularly drive by pawn shops; liquor stores; stores advertising cigarettes and lottery tickets; casinos; overpriced gift shops; kitschy tourist stops; payday loan storefronts; X-rated stores and their accouterments; corners for “dealing”. I’ll have to add fantasy sports betting to my route.

    I would include restaurants and bars. Way overpriced. No reason to go unless you are out of town.

    • Replies: @peterike

    I would include restaurants and bars. Way overpriced. No reason to go unless you are out of town.

     

    There's somebody who's never been to a good restaurant.
  20. @Jason Bayz
    Libertarians point out that if you ban gambling, like much else, it will just go underground. But I think it's better to have it underground, because look at the message having it legal sends. To some, it's the message that "you can get something for nothing." To others, it's the message that it's okay to take advantage of stupid people. It's preferable that it exist only in dingy back-rooms.

    This reminds me of an idea I had for a scheme. Create a game which is largely a game of chance but trick people into thinking it's a game of strategy/skill. Set up a website for the game and charge people a flat fee, per a period of time, to play it, so that after the fee is paid the expected value of their winnings would be 0. Only a few would lose a lot playing the game and only a few would win a lot. The problem with games of skill is that clueless people would get discouraged if they are consistently losing money.

    Many children's games are largely games of chance which the children end up thinking are games of skill. Crucial to creating the illusion would be to give the player lots of options but make sure that no option is superior. To create the illusion that strategy matters you'd create lots of websites advocating one strategy or another with bogus mathematical reasoning behind it. Another way to get publicity for it would be to incite a moral panic about children playing the game, made easier if the game were designed so as to appeal to them. It might even start out as a children's game played for virtual money, with the gambling added later.

    Libertarians point out that if you ban gambling, like much else, it will just go underground. But I think it’s better to have it underground, because look at the message having it legal sends. To some, it’s the message that “you can get something for nothing.” To others, it’s the message that it’s okay to take advantage of stupid people. It’s preferable that it exist only in dingy back-rooms.

    I agree. Casinos are a disgraceful businesses that take advantage of people’s addictions.

    The book The Power of Habit stated the the modern slot machine is the greatest mind manipulator of all time. They set it so people just get enough winnings to make them keep playing, but eventually lose. It activates a certain part of the brain. Throw in people who are susceptible to addiction and you make them lose big bucks.

    I think it was the book Going Postal that said casinos are officially sanctioned fleecing schemes.

    The lottery is another joke. Either raise taxes or cut spending.

  21. “dolt wrangling”

    Rotfl

  22. @Muse
    I think it is no surprise that tradition western Christian culture frowned on, if not prohibited things like ursury and gambling. There was an understanding that there needed to be limits on the bright being able to take advantage of the dim, lest it undercut the society, and gambling and ursury or clearly great methods to take money from the weak minded. It is really no different than the belief that men should not take advantage of women, children or the elderly because they are weaker. This was tecognized as behaving in a civilized manner.

    …Christian culture frowned on, if not prohibited things like ursury and gambling.

    Dressing up like a bear?

    • Replies: @Neuday

    …Christian culture frowned on, if not prohibited things like ursury and gambling.

    Dressing up like a bear?
     

    It always goes back to the russian joos, doesn't it?
  23. Playing daily fantasy sports is a sucker bet. At 52, I wouldn’t play $5. When I was 20, I would’ve played a bit before I figured it out. But I would have figured it out pretty quick. Let the sheep get sheered, it’s no worse than horse racing or the lottery.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Horse racing traditionally came with a lot of hoopla -- "the sport of kings" -- that distracted from its core as a vehicle for gambling.
  24. @Ttjy

    I regularly drive by pawn shops; liquor stores; stores advertising cigarettes and lottery tickets; casinos; overpriced gift shops; kitschy tourist stops; payday loan storefronts; X-rated stores and their accouterments; corners for “dealing”. I’ll have to add fantasy sports betting to my route.
     
    I would include restaurants and bars. Way overpriced. No reason to go unless you are out of town.

    I would include restaurants and bars. Way overpriced. No reason to go unless you are out of town.

    There’s somebody who’s never been to a good restaurant.

    • Replies: @bomag
    "good restaurant"

    It is a completely overbuilt business around here; the marginal operators aren't much more than microwave shacks; and to make their low margins work, they get on the cheap imported labor bandwagon; thus helping out the pawn shops; etc., and the ghettoization continues apace.
    , @MarkinLA
    Or somebody like me who simply doesn't care what he eats. You either learn how to cook or learn how to eat what you cook. I have chosen the path of least resistance.
  25. ” Rounders” WTF Sailer ? That movie sucked . Every time you you give a positive review to a movie I become more alarmed and concerned . In the future pls contact me to vet your movie reviews . While your taste in movies like your alarming sexual fantasies can’t be altered or improved at least perhaps we can prevent you from embarrassing your self and your fans .

    I remain your humble servant the Donut .

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Rounders wasn't a great movie, and I imagine Steve would agree that it wasn't great. But it was interesting and entertaining enough, especially as it introduced many people to the world of Texas Hold 'em. It came out shortly before the poker craze took off. For me and for many American men in the Aughts, it was our first introduction to Hold 'em or a movie we checked out after getting into poker, as there weren't really any other popular depictions of poker.
    , @Kevin O'Keeffe
    Not every film needs to be a potential Best Picture nominee. "Rounders" is a perfectly good movie. I mean, maybe you didn't enjoy it, but it didn't "suck." If you're one of those people who only watches 5-6 movies per year, then by all means, skip "Rounders." If you watch 7-8 movies per month, then its a good one to include in your viewing schedule.
  26. @Anonymous
    Much of the Internet Economy seems to involve some degree of bumhunting. At the high end, it's suckering VCs out of money. At the lower end, sites like Business Insider frequently run stories about some young guy who left his boring job, made lots of money Online, and now travels the world. When you dig deeper though, often you find that these guys made money by writing advice guides about How To Make Money Online And Become Rich and managed to get a lot of people to buy it. The guides are completely bogus, have no substance, and are just a bunch of vague generalities, but there are enough people online that you can peddle enough of them if you're lucky to make decent money.

    There's some overlap with the HBD-sphere, as some PUA artists have made money this way selling PU guides and some right-wing writers and advice gurus have made money with bad literature and bodybuilding/success self-help guides.

    Just prior to the internet Infomercial king Don LaPrie made gazillions off of the “You can earn money and become rich overnight”. Unfortunately it all caught up for him when he tried to sell bogus multivitamins and the Feds got a little curious. He was indicted and eventually convicted for fraud. LaPrie hung himself in his cell ca. 2011. Wonder whatever became of those late night infomercials, where anyone can make money just like that?

    • Replies: @Danindc
    Aldo spawned the funniest skit in SNL history. Jason Patric was the host- you can find it somewhere.
    , @Anonymous

    Just prior to the internet Infomercial king Don LaPrie made gazillions off of the “You can earn money and become rich overnight”. Unfortunately it all caught up for him when he tried to sell bogus multivitamins and the Feds got a little curious. He was indicted and eventually convicted for fraud. LaPrie hung himself in his cell ca. 2011. Wonder whatever became of those late night infomercials, where anyone can make money just like that?
     
    Same with TV infomercial huckster, Kevin Trudeau, who is back in prison for a ten-year fraud charge. Trudeau has a history of fraud and marrying Ukrainian immigrant women-- Oleksandra Polozhentseva (first wife) and Natalya Babenko (his third wife who went back to Kiev after he went to prison and still runs his companies).

    My favorite is Tommy Vu. Ken Jeong's character in the movie Pain & Gain (Dwayne Johnson, Mark Walberg) was based on Vu. Hilarious. Here's one of Vu high-class infomercials (night owls will be nostalgic): https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kzsSpDyBc_4
  27. For a couple of years, I lived in a small city. On the outskirts of town was a modernist house high on a hill with a commanding view and a long, winding driveway. It was built to impress everyone coming into town. When I asked a local whose house it was, I was surprised to hear that it didn’t belong to a doctor or an executive at one of the major employers in the area. It belonged to a “financial advisor.”

  28. @Jason Bayz
    Libertarians point out that if you ban gambling, like much else, it will just go underground. But I think it's better to have it underground, because look at the message having it legal sends. To some, it's the message that "you can get something for nothing." To others, it's the message that it's okay to take advantage of stupid people. It's preferable that it exist only in dingy back-rooms.

    This reminds me of an idea I had for a scheme. Create a game which is largely a game of chance but trick people into thinking it's a game of strategy/skill. Set up a website for the game and charge people a flat fee, per a period of time, to play it, so that after the fee is paid the expected value of their winnings would be 0. Only a few would lose a lot playing the game and only a few would win a lot. The problem with games of skill is that clueless people would get discouraged if they are consistently losing money.

    Many children's games are largely games of chance which the children end up thinking are games of skill. Crucial to creating the illusion would be to give the player lots of options but make sure that no option is superior. To create the illusion that strategy matters you'd create lots of websites advocating one strategy or another with bogus mathematical reasoning behind it. Another way to get publicity for it would be to incite a moral panic about children playing the game, made easier if the game were designed so as to appeal to them. It might even start out as a children's game played for virtual money, with the gambling added later.

    Hold it hold it hold it. That would be among the worst things to do regarding gambling. If it goes underground it wouldn’t be too long before the Mob took it over again. If you made a bet and lost and couldn’t pay the gambling debt, you may have to pay for it….literally in other ways that aren’t to your liking. At least when its legal you don’t have the quite literal threat of having to pay up; you’d just go bankrupt, but you wouldn’t be sleeping with the fishes.

    • Replies: @anonguy

    Hold it hold it hold it. That would be among the worst things to do regarding gambling. If it goes underground it wouldn’t be too long before the Mob took it over again.
     
    From what I've heard, and I may be completely wrong, not everything about having the Mob run gambling is 100% negative. One thing I've seen cited is that one's odds/percentage of the ticket/take that goes to payoffs was far higher in the numbers racket than it is in a typical state run lottery.
    , @EriK
    I agree. For legalized gambling you pay up front. For illegal gambling (I'm thinking bookies here) you play on credit. Pretty clear which is riskier.
  29. Oh darn, I thought this was going to be about the Oracle of Omaha: KFC, Burger King, Coke, mobile homes, HELOCs, and finally Big Pharma to mitigate all the damage of the former.

    Simple rule of thumb: if Warren’s selling, don’t be buying.

    That is when he’s not bald-faced rent-seeking (cough, Keystone Pipeline, cough) or gaming the tax code.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Buffet owned 20% of Moody's while it was rating all those subprime mortgage backed securities AAA.
  30. Steve Irwin used to do bumhunting:

  31. @EriK
    Playing daily fantasy sports is a sucker bet. At 52, I wouldn't play $5. When I was 20, I would've played a bit before I figured it out. But I would have figured it out pretty quick. Let the sheep get sheered, it's no worse than horse racing or the lottery.

    Horse racing traditionally came with a lot of hoopla — “the sport of kings” — that distracted from its core as a vehicle for gambling.

  32. @Portlander
    Oh darn, I thought this was going to be about the Oracle of Omaha: KFC, Burger King, Coke, mobile homes, HELOCs, and finally Big Pharma to mitigate all the damage of the former.

    Simple rule of thumb: if Warren's selling, don't be buying.

    That is when he's not bald-faced rent-seeking (cough, Keystone Pipeline, cough) or gaming the tax code.

    Buffet owned 20% of Moody’s while it was rating all those subprime mortgage backed securities AAA.

  33. I do math for casino games professionally. I prefer beating the casino to bumhunting, you don’t have to feel guilty about that and there are a lot of games that can be beaten if you do the scouting for opportunities and the practice. Card counting blackjack is the best known form of advantage play and the only one you don’t have to scout for, but it’s a terrible grind. There are many opportunities but I earn much better money as a math consultant than I would as an advantage player.

    The difference between advantage play and cheating is a fine line — counting cards is OK but using a computer for it is illegal, catching a peek at a sloppy dealer’s down card is OK but stationing a confederate behind the dealer out of the ordinary play area to signal you is cheating, observing irregularities and asymmetries in playing cards that have not been handled skilfully is OK but marking or crimping the cards is illegal, finding a biased roulette wheel is OK but sneaking your bet after the cutoff is cheating, figuring out that progressive jackpots have made a slot machine temporarily positive is OK but kicking the power strip or tilting the machine so no one else can play it while you go to bed is cheating, etc.

    I have no emotional connection to gambling, and I won’t play a game where the odds are against me. The problem with poker is you don’t know how good your opponents are, and the odds are never mathematically in your favor, but it is certainly the best way to make a living as a gambler. I have always said that by far the most important skill for a poker player, much more valuable than a memory or math skills or strategic theory or money management or keeping a poker face, is simply finding people to play with who aren’t as good as you.

    Online poker can be done securely in theory, but there have been too many examples of cheating and theft by insiders. In the fantasy sports games, there is extreme ignorance about how much of a game of skill it is. In poker, it’s harder to dismiss continual losses as bad luck, so if bumhunting works there, it should work even better at fantasy sports. Anyone who would condemn it just because better players win and worse players lose has no understanding whatsoever of what gambling is. (On the other hand, cheating and theft by insiders should be treated very harshly.)

    • Replies: @Mike1
    Nice to see an intelligent comment from someone who works in a field connected to an article. I agree that better players have every right to win.

    America as a country is based on the ability of the strong to beat the weak. On most measures the US is the worst performing first world country. It makes up for it with size. It is the Shaquille O'Neal of countries.
  34. P.T. Barnum’s friend was right:

    “There’s a sucker born every minute.”

  35. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @donut
    " Rounders" WTF Sailer ? That movie sucked . Every time you you give a positive review to a movie I become more alarmed and concerned . In the future pls contact me to vet your movie reviews . While your taste in movies like your alarming sexual fantasies can't be altered or improved at least perhaps we can prevent you from embarrassing your self and your fans .

    I remain your humble servant the Donut .

    Rounders wasn’t a great movie, and I imagine Steve would agree that it wasn’t great. But it was interesting and entertaining enough, especially as it introduced many people to the world of Texas Hold ’em. It came out shortly before the poker craze took off. For me and for many American men in the Aughts, it was our first introduction to Hold ’em or a movie we checked out after getting into poker, as there weren’t really any other popular depictions of poker.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    "Rounders" could have been better, but movies that introduce us to a particular subculture have educational value. And this one had one great line worth remembering in your daily life.
  36. @newrouter
    paul newman was bumhunting in the "the sting".

    I read the book The Sting was based on, David Maurer’s The Big Con: The Story of the Confidence Man. One of his interesting observations is that con artists themselves are generally easy to con, as was depicted in The Sting when the Redford character quickly loses his money to a rigged roulette wheel. Maurer said that few con artists were able to hold onto their winnings for long.

    • Replies: @Desiderius

    One of his interesting observations is that con artists themselves are generally easy to con
     
    Tit-for-tat turns out to be optimal, and so thousands of cultural signals have evolved over the ages to point people in hat direction. Those who can't, or won't, pick up on those signals have a sort of moral blindness that suggests that it's no surprise that they're easily duped themselves.
  37. @Jack D
    There are many games/sports (e.g. chess, fencing) where the players are tiered or rated and only players of comparable skill play each other - otherwise it is not sporting or fair at all. If your past results show that you have a high level of skill, you are promoted out of the junior varsity and permitted only to play with the other big boys. The 1.3% of sharks who are taking home all the money should be playing only with their fellow sharks and leave the minnows alone.

    This is assuming that the game operators are interested in something resembling fairness and not just fleecing the rubes, but I suspect otherwise.

    Golf and Tennis are examples of games where it is typically more fun to play someone better than you. It is also much harder to improve when you play against inferiors.

  38. @Reg Cæsar

    ...Christian culture frowned on, if not prohibited things like ursury and gambling.
     
    Dressing up like a bear?

    …Christian culture frowned on, if not prohibited things like ursury and gambling.

    Dressing up like a bear?

    It always goes back to the russian joos, doesn’t it?

    • Replies: @donut
    Yes it does . You noticed that too ?
  39. Leftist conservative [AKA "radical_centrist"] says: • Website

    the legal moves by states against fantasy football sites is just another example of powerful vested interests using the government to shut out competition. When fantasy football draws in players, you can believe that some industry somewhere is losing money because of it.

    Other examples: uber, legalized marijuana, etc. New industries are targeted by established industries, and the govt is the hammer.

  40. @Anonymous
    Rounders wasn't a great movie, and I imagine Steve would agree that it wasn't great. But it was interesting and entertaining enough, especially as it introduced many people to the world of Texas Hold 'em. It came out shortly before the poker craze took off. For me and for many American men in the Aughts, it was our first introduction to Hold 'em or a movie we checked out after getting into poker, as there weren't really any other popular depictions of poker.

    “Rounders” could have been better, but movies that introduce us to a particular subculture have educational value. And this one had one great line worth remembering in your daily life.

    • Replies: @DCThrowback
    Really thought that one line was Worm's, "In the poker game of life, women are the rake."

    Now those are some words to live by.
  41. @Jack D
    There are many games/sports (e.g. chess, fencing) where the players are tiered or rated and only players of comparable skill play each other - otherwise it is not sporting or fair at all. If your past results show that you have a high level of skill, you are promoted out of the junior varsity and permitted only to play with the other big boys. The 1.3% of sharks who are taking home all the money should be playing only with their fellow sharks and leave the minnows alone.

    This is assuming that the game operators are interested in something resembling fairness and not just fleecing the rubes, but I suspect otherwise.

    “Almost all the great popular sports of the world come from Britain. But what Britain has not been able to export is the amateur ethos of the game. Most foreigners, and now many Britons, want to win at any cost within the rules; and they keep to the rules only because a game without rules is war.”

    – John Fowles, The Aristos, 9:68

  42. “Bumhunting”. The online poker community has some great jargon. I miss that part of it.

  43. @CAL
    Well they will destroy their business if they allow scripting. Scripting destroys any online game. People quickly decide it makes no sense to play against some semi-literate moron with a script. If the DFS companies want to succeed long-term they'll have to forbid scripting, and force successful players to play against each other while keeping them out of the noob areas. In other words they'll have to tier their product.

    Because of the nature of the game (more losers than winners), they figure the word of mouth is always going to be negative, so better to have 100 guys who win $800,000 to put in their commercials than 800,000 guys who win $100 to brag to their friends.

  44. @Neuday

    …Christian culture frowned on, if not prohibited things like ursury and gambling.

    Dressing up like a bear?
     

    It always goes back to the russian joos, doesn't it?

    Yes it does . You noticed that too ?

  45. The Uebermensch Imperative, or, alternately, the Untermensch Imperative? Ludlumesque vibe, plus you’d have to work at a really good, nuanced definition.

    Olorin, Steve, and the other commenters above pretty much have it down, though. Anyone think that reported $1 trillion of student loan debt is a consequence of bum hunting, at least in part? How about Medicare, which rapidly pauperized the under-65 cash patient who’d played by the rules and saved for the costs of his medical care? We had a proposal in my area to place a hefty regressive excise tax on cigarettes to fund arts programs, and its chief promoters were a local university dean and several wealthy Democrats. I toss a few bucks a week into my state lottery, even though I know it’s a voluntary tax.

    Yojimbo-Mob collection of gambling debts in my area included one guy who was so badly harassed he committed suicide. That happened during a turnover in local Mob leadership, when the new boss wanted to demonstrate he had the right stuff. So, yeah, I’m glad to see gambling legal.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    In the case of student loans and Medicare, universities and insurance companies and hospitals figured out that since the federal government would foot the bill, they could jack up the price and try to extract as much as possible with every transaction.
  46. @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    Just prior to the internet Infomercial king Don LaPrie made gazillions off of the "You can earn money and become rich overnight". Unfortunately it all caught up for him when he tried to sell bogus multivitamins and the Feds got a little curious. He was indicted and eventually convicted for fraud. LaPrie hung himself in his cell ca. 2011. Wonder whatever became of those late night infomercials, where anyone can make money just like that?

    Aldo spawned the funniest skit in SNL history. Jason Patric was the host- you can find it somewhere.

    • Replies: @DCThrowback
    http://snltranscripts.jt.org/93/93jroad.phtml

    or

    http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/don-lapres-road-to-selfimprovement/2860971
  47. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    Just prior to the internet Infomercial king Don LaPrie made gazillions off of the "You can earn money and become rich overnight". Unfortunately it all caught up for him when he tried to sell bogus multivitamins and the Feds got a little curious. He was indicted and eventually convicted for fraud. LaPrie hung himself in his cell ca. 2011. Wonder whatever became of those late night infomercials, where anyone can make money just like that?

    Just prior to the internet Infomercial king Don LaPrie made gazillions off of the “You can earn money and become rich overnight”. Unfortunately it all caught up for him when he tried to sell bogus multivitamins and the Feds got a little curious. He was indicted and eventually convicted for fraud. LaPrie hung himself in his cell ca. 2011. Wonder whatever became of those late night infomercials, where anyone can make money just like that?

    Same with TV infomercial huckster, Kevin Trudeau, who is back in prison for a ten-year fraud charge. Trudeau has a history of fraud and marrying Ukrainian immigrant women– Oleksandra Polozhentseva (first wife) and Natalya Babenko (his third wife who went back to Kiev after he went to prison and still runs his companies).

    My favorite is Tommy Vu. Ken Jeong’s character in the movie Pain & Gain (Dwayne Johnson, Mark Walberg) was based on Vu. Hilarious. Here’s one of Vu high-class infomercials (night owls will be nostalgic):

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Fraudster Kevin Trudeau started the International Pool Tour for billiards and Tommy Vu went on to become a professional poker player.
    , @MarkinLA
    I think the guy who milked it the most was Dave Del Dotto. He had those commercials in Hawaii. Then he moved back to Milpitas when it started to go sour. He was finally hawking a bunch of garbage anybody with a little bit of time could find out about and it was thrown in to one garbage bag.

    At the end he was on some radio show and a caller called about his claim that buying second mortgages at a discount was a sure way to make money. Some CPU was cussing him out about how many clients he had that followed his advice and were getting screwed left and right as the places were defaulted on and the seconds were worthless.

    http://www.ameraway.com/davedelddotto.htm
  48. @Anonymous

    Just prior to the internet Infomercial king Don LaPrie made gazillions off of the “You can earn money and become rich overnight”. Unfortunately it all caught up for him when he tried to sell bogus multivitamins and the Feds got a little curious. He was indicted and eventually convicted for fraud. LaPrie hung himself in his cell ca. 2011. Wonder whatever became of those late night infomercials, where anyone can make money just like that?
     
    Same with TV infomercial huckster, Kevin Trudeau, who is back in prison for a ten-year fraud charge. Trudeau has a history of fraud and marrying Ukrainian immigrant women-- Oleksandra Polozhentseva (first wife) and Natalya Babenko (his third wife who went back to Kiev after he went to prison and still runs his companies).

    My favorite is Tommy Vu. Ken Jeong's character in the movie Pain & Gain (Dwayne Johnson, Mark Walberg) was based on Vu. Hilarious. Here's one of Vu high-class infomercials (night owls will be nostalgic): https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kzsSpDyBc_4

    Fraudster Kevin Trudeau started the International Pool Tour for billiards and Tommy Vu went on to become a professional poker player.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Fraudster Kevin Trudeau…
     
    Is he any worse than Justin? Or Justin's dad, who gave the world "multiculturalism"?
    , @Anonymous
    Trudeau is the veritable Renaissance man of TV infomercials. He's hawked everything from natural cures to get rich quick schemes and memory enhancement techniques. He's completely shameless and doesn't stop hawking the BS even after he gets caught. After he went to prison, he said that he only went to prison as a part of an undercover operation for the secret society he's a part of:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1vTjP7Nrzc
  49. @newrouter
    bumhunting sounds like the baracky economy.

    bumhunting is what baracky does.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    You think he's a top?
  50. @peterike

    I would include restaurants and bars. Way overpriced. No reason to go unless you are out of town.

     

    There's somebody who's never been to a good restaurant.

    “good restaurant”

    It is a completely overbuilt business around here; the marginal operators aren’t much more than microwave shacks; and to make their low margins work, they get on the cheap imported labor bandwagon; thus helping out the pawn shops; etc., and the ghettoization continues apace.

  51. @Harry Baldwin
    I read the book The Sting was based on, David Maurer's The Big Con: The Story of the Confidence Man. One of his interesting observations is that con artists themselves are generally easy to con, as was depicted in The Sting when the Redford character quickly loses his money to a rigged roulette wheel. Maurer said that few con artists were able to hold onto their winnings for long.

    One of his interesting observations is that con artists themselves are generally easy to con

    Tit-for-tat turns out to be optimal, and so thousands of cultural signals have evolved over the ages to point people in hat direction. Those who can’t, or won’t, pick up on those signals have a sort of moral blindness that suggests that it’s no surprise that they’re easily duped themselves.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Those who can’t, or won’t, pick up on those signals have a sort of moral blindness that suggests that it’s no surprise that they’re easily duped themselves.
     
    So sayeth Larson E Whipsnade.
    , @MarkinLA
    Could be just an over inflated sense of themselves. Since they are the smartets guy in the room they can't believe anybody can fool them.
  52. @Muse
    I think it is no surprise that tradition western Christian culture frowned on, if not prohibited things like ursury and gambling. There was an understanding that there needed to be limits on the bright being able to take advantage of the dim, lest it undercut the society, and gambling and ursury or clearly great methods to take money from the weak minded. It is really no different than the belief that men should not take advantage of women, children or the elderly because they are weaker. This was tecognized as behaving in a civilized manner.

    I think it is no surprise that tradition western Christian culture frowned on, if not prohibited things like ursury and gambling. There was an understanding that there needed to be limits on the bright being able to take advantage of the dim, lest it undercut the society, and gambling and ursury or clearly great methods to take money from the weak minded. It is really no different than the belief that men should not take advantage of women, children or the elderly because they are weaker. This was tecognized as behaving in a civilized manner.

    Public lotteries are effectively a tax on people with low mathematical skills.

  53. @Sparkling Wiggle
    Collusion among players in online poker is difficult to do. Even more difficult to do profitably. Yet even more difficult to do profitably without getting caught. And impossible to do consistently, profitably, and without getting caught. A high schooler could design a script to detect it.

    This assumes that we're talking about regular players and not insiders as in the Absolute Poker/Ultimate Bet superuser scandal.

    Collusion among players in online poker is difficult to do. Even more difficult to do profitably. Yet even more difficult to do profitably without getting caught. And impossible to do consistently, profitably, and without getting caught. A high schooler could design a script to detect it.

    Why is this? I’m genuinely curious, having zero experience with online poker.

    • Replies: @Sparkling Wiggle
    In Texas Hold 'em, the most popular poker game at the moment, each player is dealt 2 hole cards which only he can see. Let's say that you and I are colluding in a cash game online (meaning not a tournament; you can cash out your chips at any time and leave the table).

    If I'm involved in a hand with someone other than you, my partner in crime, how much of an edge will it give me to know your cards? Not much. Knowing your cards will allow me to calculate pot odds more accurately, which is certainly an advantage in the long run.

    But in online poker, the long run is tortuously long. I seem to remember David Sklansky saying it takes over 100,000 hands to know if you're even a long-run winning player after rake. So you and I are going to be at a lot of poker tables together for a very long time, giving people plenty of opportunities to discover what we're up to. So that's the first thing the anti-collusion software would look for: you and me sitting at 12 tables together.

    There is a basic strategy in poker, just as in blackjack. Except that instead of 1 correct play for each situation, it's more of a range of plays. If I have a strong hand, I'm going to bet and raise most of the time. A small percent of the time, I will vary the way I play those strong hands just to keep from being too predictable. If the online poker room sees you and me making a lot of highly improbable plays and winning, that's a clue that we may be colluding with someone. That's the second thing the software would look for.

    They would check our hand history for cases where knowledge of your hand would be particularly useful to me (like if I only had 2 outs to make my hand and you folded them), and the picture becomes pretty clear.

    None of those measures are airtight, and colluding players could possibly slip through the cracks. But again, in order to make it profitable, they have to skate through the cracks for thousands of hands, all while playing otherwise competent poker in the cases where collusion isn't beneficial.

    There are other kinds of collusion which may offer a greater payoff, but they involve coordinated play like chip dumping or trying to isolate certain players rather than just knowledge of 2 random cards.

    If you want to see what real cheating looks like, here's a simulation of the tournament that Absolute Poker player "potripper" won by accessing a superuser account, which was able to see every player's cards at the table.
  54. @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    Hold it hold it hold it. That would be among the worst things to do regarding gambling. If it goes underground it wouldn't be too long before the Mob took it over again. If you made a bet and lost and couldn't pay the gambling debt, you may have to pay for it....literally in other ways that aren't to your liking. At least when its legal you don't have the quite literal threat of having to pay up; you'd just go bankrupt, but you wouldn't be sleeping with the fishes.

    Hold it hold it hold it. That would be among the worst things to do regarding gambling. If it goes underground it wouldn’t be too long before the Mob took it over again.

    From what I’ve heard, and I may be completely wrong, not everything about having the Mob run gambling is 100% negative. One thing I’ve seen cited is that one’s odds/percentage of the ticket/take that goes to payoffs was far higher in the numbers racket than it is in a typical state run lottery.

    • Replies: @MarkinLA
    Off shore sports books have been known to just all of a sudden shut down and run off with the money. That probably won't happen with the mob because they money they make is good and even though they could stiff their bettors and nobody would go after them, then they lose a lucrative cash, no tax business.

    I used to have an account when they first started up. Mine was with a legitimate British sports book but their on-line stuff was operating out of Mauritius. Initially I went on a winning streak and got a check from them. Then I went on a losing streak and lost it all back and then some. They had a deal where they started giving you your vigorish back on losers. My last bet was a loser and I got the vig back - maybe 10 bucks. I never replenished my account. Every penny of those last bets were the vig I got from my other losers, that's how bad my losing streak was. That was the end of my account.
  55. @Palerider1861
    bumhunting is what baracky does.

    You think he’s a top?

  56. Bum hunting is the media’s preferred tactic of fighting the culture war too: Westboro Baptist, that Starbucks cup controversy guy, Dylann Roof, etc.

    That’s one of the funner angles on Trump. He walks, talks and acts like a bum, which draws the media to him like piranhas every time he wades into the pool, but he beats them every time. But they are so convinced that he’s a bum that they keep on coming after him. He’s the perfect hustler.

  57. @Anonymous
    Fraudster Kevin Trudeau started the International Pool Tour for billiards and Tommy Vu went on to become a professional poker player.

    Fraudster Kevin Trudeau…

    Is he any worse than Justin? Or Justin’s dad, who gave the world “multiculturalism”?

  58. I have no interest in online gambling, but scripting has totally ruined a lot of just-for-fun online gaming. For example, I used to get a kick out of playing this game, Tribal Wars, but its become completely ridiculous. I’m basically playing as a human being, and everyone else is just an automated script that I can’t realistically compete against. I don’t even see what enjoyment they get out of it, frankly. I can only shudder at the catastrophic impact scripting would have in an online milieu where actual money is at stake.

  59. @Desiderius

    One of his interesting observations is that con artists themselves are generally easy to con
     
    Tit-for-tat turns out to be optimal, and so thousands of cultural signals have evolved over the ages to point people in hat direction. Those who can't, or won't, pick up on those signals have a sort of moral blindness that suggests that it's no surprise that they're easily duped themselves.

    Those who can’t, or won’t, pick up on those signals have a sort of moral blindness that suggests that it’s no surprise that they’re easily duped themselves.

    So sayeth Larson E Whipsnade.

  60. @donut
    " Rounders" WTF Sailer ? That movie sucked . Every time you you give a positive review to a movie I become more alarmed and concerned . In the future pls contact me to vet your movie reviews . While your taste in movies like your alarming sexual fantasies can't be altered or improved at least perhaps we can prevent you from embarrassing your self and your fans .

    I remain your humble servant the Donut .

    Not every film needs to be a potential Best Picture nominee. “Rounders” is a perfectly good movie. I mean, maybe you didn’t enjoy it, but it didn’t “suck.” If you’re one of those people who only watches 5-6 movies per year, then by all means, skip “Rounders.” If you watch 7-8 movies per month, then its a good one to include in your viewing schedule.

  61. @Tarrou
    What's the saying about a fool and his money?


    Some people are just dying to give it away. No sense in trying to stop them. Me? I'm a transactional guy. My favorite betting game in a casino is the bar. I win every time I put money in.

    yeah, but you’re just renting those winnings bro

  62. @Steve Sailer
    "Rounders" could have been better, but movies that introduce us to a particular subculture have educational value. And this one had one great line worth remembering in your daily life.

    Really thought that one line was Worm’s, “In the poker game of life, women are the rake.”

    Now those are some words to live by.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    “In the poker game of life, women are the rake.”

    Sounds memorable, but what does it mean?
  63. @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    Hold it hold it hold it. That would be among the worst things to do regarding gambling. If it goes underground it wouldn't be too long before the Mob took it over again. If you made a bet and lost and couldn't pay the gambling debt, you may have to pay for it....literally in other ways that aren't to your liking. At least when its legal you don't have the quite literal threat of having to pay up; you'd just go bankrupt, but you wouldn't be sleeping with the fishes.

    I agree. For legalized gambling you pay up front. For illegal gambling (I’m thinking bookies here) you play on credit. Pretty clear which is riskier.

  64. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous
    Fraudster Kevin Trudeau started the International Pool Tour for billiards and Tommy Vu went on to become a professional poker player.

    Trudeau is the veritable Renaissance man of TV infomercials. He’s hawked everything from natural cures to get rich quick schemes and memory enhancement techniques. He’s completely shameless and doesn’t stop hawking the BS even after he gets caught. After he went to prison, he said that he only went to prison as a part of an undercover operation for the secret society he’s a part of:

  65. @JackOH
    The Uebermensch Imperative, or, alternately, the Untermensch Imperative? Ludlumesque vibe, plus you'd have to work at a really good, nuanced definition.

    Olorin, Steve, and the other commenters above pretty much have it down, though. Anyone think that reported $1 trillion of student loan debt is a consequence of bum hunting, at least in part? How about Medicare, which rapidly pauperized the under-65 cash patient who'd played by the rules and saved for the costs of his medical care? We had a proposal in my area to place a hefty regressive excise tax on cigarettes to fund arts programs, and its chief promoters were a local university dean and several wealthy Democrats. I toss a few bucks a week into my state lottery, even though I know it's a voluntary tax.

    Yojimbo-Mob collection of gambling debts in my area included one guy who was so badly harassed he committed suicide. That happened during a turnover in local Mob leadership, when the new boss wanted to demonstrate he had the right stuff. So, yeah, I'm glad to see gambling legal.

    In the case of student loans and Medicare, universities and insurance companies and hospitals figured out that since the federal government would foot the bill, they could jack up the price and try to extract as much as possible with every transaction.

  66. @Polymath
    I do math for casino games professionally. I prefer beating the casino to bumhunting, you don't have to feel guilty about that and there are a lot of games that can be beaten if you do the scouting for opportunities and the practice. Card counting blackjack is the best known form of advantage play and the only one you don't have to scout for, but it's a terrible grind. There are many opportunities but I earn much better money as a math consultant than I would as an advantage player.

    The difference between advantage play and cheating is a fine line -- counting cards is OK but using a computer for it is illegal, catching a peek at a sloppy dealer's down card is OK but stationing a confederate behind the dealer out of the ordinary play area to signal you is cheating, observing irregularities and asymmetries in playing cards that have not been handled skilfully is OK but marking or crimping the cards is illegal, finding a biased roulette wheel is OK but sneaking your bet after the cutoff is cheating, figuring out that progressive jackpots have made a slot machine temporarily positive is OK but kicking the power strip or tilting the machine so no one else can play it while you go to bed is cheating, etc.

    I have no emotional connection to gambling, and I won't play a game where the odds are against me. The problem with poker is you don't know how good your opponents are, and the odds are never mathematically in your favor, but it is certainly the best way to make a living as a gambler. I have always said that by far the most important skill for a poker player, much more valuable than a memory or math skills or strategic theory or money management or keeping a poker face, is simply finding people to play with who aren't as good as you.

    Online poker can be done securely in theory, but there have been too many examples of cheating and theft by insiders. In the fantasy sports games, there is extreme ignorance about how much of a game of skill it is. In poker, it's harder to dismiss continual losses as bad luck, so if bumhunting works there, it should work even better at fantasy sports. Anyone who would condemn it just because better players win and worse players lose has no understanding whatsoever of what gambling is. (On the other hand, cheating and theft by insiders should be treated very harshly.)

    Nice to see an intelligent comment from someone who works in a field connected to an article. I agree that better players have every right to win.

    America as a country is based on the ability of the strong to beat the weak. On most measures the US is the worst performing first world country. It makes up for it with size. It is the Shaquille O’Neal of countries.

  67. I used to love “Stump the Schwab” on ESPN back in the mid-’00s!

  68. No winner in Wednesday night’s 44-state Powerball lottery; the jack pot is projected to hit $700 million for Saturday night’s drawing – the biggest lottery prize in US history!

  69. One might say that Bernie Madoff was “bumhunting.”

  70. @Sparkling Wiggle
    Collusion among players in online poker is difficult to do. Even more difficult to do profitably. Yet even more difficult to do profitably without getting caught. And impossible to do consistently, profitably, and without getting caught. A high schooler could design a script to detect it.

    This assumes that we're talking about regular players and not insiders as in the Absolute Poker/Ultimate Bet superuser scandal.

    I don’t play but am just passing on the information from people who claim they know people who collude on-line. I suppose they agree to log onto the system at exactly the same time and for the same game. They know each others handles so they know if they are on the same table.

    I bet the guys playing fantasy didn’t think there was anyway to scam that either.

  71. @peterike

    I would include restaurants and bars. Way overpriced. No reason to go unless you are out of town.

     

    There's somebody who's never been to a good restaurant.

    Or somebody like me who simply doesn’t care what he eats. You either learn how to cook or learn how to eat what you cook. I have chosen the path of least resistance.

  72. @Desiderius

    One of his interesting observations is that con artists themselves are generally easy to con
     
    Tit-for-tat turns out to be optimal, and so thousands of cultural signals have evolved over the ages to point people in hat direction. Those who can't, or won't, pick up on those signals have a sort of moral blindness that suggests that it's no surprise that they're easily duped themselves.

    Could be just an over inflated sense of themselves. Since they are the smartets guy in the room they can’t believe anybody can fool them.

  73. @anonguy

    Hold it hold it hold it. That would be among the worst things to do regarding gambling. If it goes underground it wouldn’t be too long before the Mob took it over again.
     
    From what I've heard, and I may be completely wrong, not everything about having the Mob run gambling is 100% negative. One thing I've seen cited is that one's odds/percentage of the ticket/take that goes to payoffs was far higher in the numbers racket than it is in a typical state run lottery.

    Off shore sports books have been known to just all of a sudden shut down and run off with the money. That probably won’t happen with the mob because they money they make is good and even though they could stiff their bettors and nobody would go after them, then they lose a lucrative cash, no tax business.

    I used to have an account when they first started up. Mine was with a legitimate British sports book but their on-line stuff was operating out of Mauritius. Initially I went on a winning streak and got a check from them. Then I went on a losing streak and lost it all back and then some. They had a deal where they started giving you your vigorish back on losers. My last bet was a loser and I got the vig back – maybe 10 bucks. I never replenished my account. Every penny of those last bets were the vig I got from my other losers, that’s how bad my losing streak was. That was the end of my account.

  74. @Anonymous

    Just prior to the internet Infomercial king Don LaPrie made gazillions off of the “You can earn money and become rich overnight”. Unfortunately it all caught up for him when he tried to sell bogus multivitamins and the Feds got a little curious. He was indicted and eventually convicted for fraud. LaPrie hung himself in his cell ca. 2011. Wonder whatever became of those late night infomercials, where anyone can make money just like that?
     
    Same with TV infomercial huckster, Kevin Trudeau, who is back in prison for a ten-year fraud charge. Trudeau has a history of fraud and marrying Ukrainian immigrant women-- Oleksandra Polozhentseva (first wife) and Natalya Babenko (his third wife who went back to Kiev after he went to prison and still runs his companies).

    My favorite is Tommy Vu. Ken Jeong's character in the movie Pain & Gain (Dwayne Johnson, Mark Walberg) was based on Vu. Hilarious. Here's one of Vu high-class infomercials (night owls will be nostalgic): https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kzsSpDyBc_4

    I think the guy who milked it the most was Dave Del Dotto. He had those commercials in Hawaii. Then he moved back to Milpitas when it started to go sour. He was finally hawking a bunch of garbage anybody with a little bit of time could find out about and it was thrown in to one garbage bag.

    At the end he was on some radio show and a caller called about his claim that buying second mortgages at a discount was a sure way to make money. Some CPU was cussing him out about how many clients he had that followed his advice and were getting screwed left and right as the places were defaulted on and the seconds were worthless.

    http://www.ameraway.com/davedelddotto.htm

  75. @anonguy

    Collusion among players in online poker is difficult to do. Even more difficult to do profitably. Yet even more difficult to do profitably without getting caught. And impossible to do consistently, profitably, and without getting caught. A high schooler could design a script to detect it.
     
    Why is this? I'm genuinely curious, having zero experience with online poker.

    In Texas Hold ’em, the most popular poker game at the moment, each player is dealt 2 hole cards which only he can see. Let’s say that you and I are colluding in a cash game online (meaning not a tournament; you can cash out your chips at any time and leave the table).

    If I’m involved in a hand with someone other than you, my partner in crime, how much of an edge will it give me to know your cards? Not much. Knowing your cards will allow me to calculate pot odds more accurately, which is certainly an advantage in the long run.

    But in online poker, the long run is tortuously long. I seem to remember David Sklansky saying it takes over 100,000 hands to know if you’re even a long-run winning player after rake. So you and I are going to be at a lot of poker tables together for a very long time, giving people plenty of opportunities to discover what we’re up to. So that’s the first thing the anti-collusion software would look for: you and me sitting at 12 tables together.

    There is a basic strategy in poker, just as in blackjack. Except that instead of 1 correct play for each situation, it’s more of a range of plays. If I have a strong hand, I’m going to bet and raise most of the time. A small percent of the time, I will vary the way I play those strong hands just to keep from being too predictable. If the online poker room sees you and me making a lot of highly improbable plays and winning, that’s a clue that we may be colluding with someone. That’s the second thing the software would look for.

    They would check our hand history for cases where knowledge of your hand would be particularly useful to me (like if I only had 2 outs to make my hand and you folded them), and the picture becomes pretty clear.

    None of those measures are airtight, and colluding players could possibly slip through the cracks. But again, in order to make it profitable, they have to skate through the cracks for thousands of hands, all while playing otherwise competent poker in the cases where collusion isn’t beneficial.

    There are other kinds of collusion which may offer a greater payoff, but they involve coordinated play like chip dumping or trying to isolate certain players rather than just knowledge of 2 random cards.

    If you want to see what real cheating looks like, here’s a simulation of the tournament that Absolute Poker player “potripper” won by accessing a superuser account, which was able to see every player’s cards at the table.

    • Replies: @anonguy
    Thanks for the very informative reply.

    My question would be whether the online poker places have any interest in rooting out cheating or does it work to their advantage as a business? At least in the past, that charge has been leveled against ebay wrt to shill bidding. And online dating sites are hardly diligent in rooting out misrepresentations by their users, which suggests that this is viewed at least neutrally if not positively by operators of such sites. There is lots of easy, low buck stuff they all could be doing but they all don't.

  76. Here’s the link:

    http://youtu.be/FczbS7FiWSM

    Also meant to say that those other kinds of collusion are for tournaments, not cash games.

  77. @DCThrowback
    Really thought that one line was Worm's, "In the poker game of life, women are the rake."

    Now those are some words to live by.

    “In the poker game of life, women are the rake.”

    Sounds memorable, but what does it mean?

    • Replies: @DCThrowback
    In the movie, the exchange goes like this (after Mike and Worm return to Mike's empty apt to find out that Gretchen Mol's shrew of a character has broken up w/ Mike and moved out b/c he has started playing poker again):

    Worm: I guess the sayings' true. In the poker game of life, women are the rake. They are the fucking rake.

    Mike: What the fuck are you talking about? What saying?

    Worm: I don't know. There oughta be one.
     
    So, I think it's kind of a joke that even the writers can't explain. (The rake being the house's take in a poker game; the "tax" it takes to win the pot per game. The losers lose everything they wager, the winner pays the "rake".)

    But the more I think about it, men are more action oriented, and women...are a grounding influence. In order to reproduce and enjoy the pleasurable sexual benefits women provide, men pay a tax of their pot earnings (time, wealth, etc.) to continue to enjoy that benefit.

    I guess as a married man, I am now "pot-committed" as well!
  78. Driving for Uber could fall into this category.

    Spend any time in the Uber Forums and you will discover that Uber is churning through drivers.

    People sign up lured by the idea of making thousands of dollars just driving a car and setting their own hours.

    The problem is the unsophisticated drivers see the money they are making , deduct the price of gas used, and conclude the rest is profit. They are neglecting the long term cost of maintenance, and the depreciation of the car.

    Eventually the reality catches up with the driver, he realizes he’s not making all the money he thought he was, and he drops out.

    On top of that Uber has consistently been cutting the time and mileage rates it pays, making it even more difficult to earn a reasonable wage. There are some veteran drivers who have learned how to beat the system: buy an already depreciated vehicle, when to drive, how to cut down on dead miles.

    But for the unsophisticated new driver, which is increasingly an immigrant, it’s jut a way for Uber to transform the equity in your car into money in their accounts.

    And then there is the partnership Uber has with car dealers where a driver can buy a new car to drive with Uber. They literally just handing money over to Uber for the right to make a pittance.

  79. @Steve Sailer
    “In the poker game of life, women are the rake.”

    Sounds memorable, but what does it mean?

    In the movie, the exchange goes like this (after Mike and Worm return to Mike’s empty apt to find out that Gretchen Mol’s shrew of a character has broken up w/ Mike and moved out b/c he has started playing poker again):

    Worm: I guess the sayings’ true. In the poker game of life, women are the rake. They are the fucking rake.

    Mike: What the fuck are you talking about? What saying?

    Worm: I don’t know. There oughta be one.

    So, I think it’s kind of a joke that even the writers can’t explain. (The rake being the house’s take in a poker game; the “tax” it takes to win the pot per game. The losers lose everything they wager, the winner pays the “rake”.)

    But the more I think about it, men are more action oriented, and women…are a grounding influence. In order to reproduce and enjoy the pleasurable sexual benefits women provide, men pay a tax of their pot earnings (time, wealth, etc.) to continue to enjoy that benefit.

    I guess as a married man, I am now “pot-committed” as well!

  80. This reminded me of the blogger Calico Cat’s idea, which he thought up back in 2003, of the “marketing economy.” The traditional idea is that America went from the agricultural economy to the manufacturing economy to the “information economy,” but what happens when those jobs, too, are sent overseas?

    (…) What we will have left is what I call the marketing economy. Nearly all jobs that involve creating actual value, such as manufacturing, computer programming, engineering, or just answering the phone at a call center, will be moved overseas. The only jobs left in the United States will be marketing jobs.

    Instead of creating real value, marketing merely creates the perception of value. But perception is a very powerful thing. The weekend before Christmas in Manhattan, I spotted a vendor on the street selling sweaters for only $5 each. But a Polo by Ralph Lauren sweater at a mid level department store like Macy’s sells for $99. What’s the difference between the two sweaters? Even if the Polo sweater costs more the manufacture, I guarantee you that it doesn’t cost twenty times as much to manufacture. It’s doubtful that it even cost twice as much to manufacture. Nope, that $99 sweater is actually only a $5 sweater that has a higher perception of value. The manufacture of the sweater takes place in Macao and costs only $5. Then $85 is spent marketing the sweater in the United States, with $10 of profit for Macy’s and Polo.

    https://web.archive.org/web/20040402111540/http://www.calicocat.com/marketing_economy.htm

    The rise of bumhunting is one aspect of the marketing economy in action. Facebook is another good example, it was not a triumph of coding but one of marketing. And it makes its money off of advertisements, other companies paying it to market their wares.

  81. I can’t really picture Obama playing Poker. He hides his feelings worse than the Hulk. Dolt hunting is rich coming from a guy who spent his whole time in college with the Choom Gang. If Cheech and Chong were in the White House, at least this would be funny. Fantasy Sports is no dumber than watching sports on TV. Think of how much cash these couch potatoes are spending to watch 100 games of grown men playing with their balls.

  82. @Sparkling Wiggle
    In Texas Hold 'em, the most popular poker game at the moment, each player is dealt 2 hole cards which only he can see. Let's say that you and I are colluding in a cash game online (meaning not a tournament; you can cash out your chips at any time and leave the table).

    If I'm involved in a hand with someone other than you, my partner in crime, how much of an edge will it give me to know your cards? Not much. Knowing your cards will allow me to calculate pot odds more accurately, which is certainly an advantage in the long run.

    But in online poker, the long run is tortuously long. I seem to remember David Sklansky saying it takes over 100,000 hands to know if you're even a long-run winning player after rake. So you and I are going to be at a lot of poker tables together for a very long time, giving people plenty of opportunities to discover what we're up to. So that's the first thing the anti-collusion software would look for: you and me sitting at 12 tables together.

    There is a basic strategy in poker, just as in blackjack. Except that instead of 1 correct play for each situation, it's more of a range of plays. If I have a strong hand, I'm going to bet and raise most of the time. A small percent of the time, I will vary the way I play those strong hands just to keep from being too predictable. If the online poker room sees you and me making a lot of highly improbable plays and winning, that's a clue that we may be colluding with someone. That's the second thing the software would look for.

    They would check our hand history for cases where knowledge of your hand would be particularly useful to me (like if I only had 2 outs to make my hand and you folded them), and the picture becomes pretty clear.

    None of those measures are airtight, and colluding players could possibly slip through the cracks. But again, in order to make it profitable, they have to skate through the cracks for thousands of hands, all while playing otherwise competent poker in the cases where collusion isn't beneficial.

    There are other kinds of collusion which may offer a greater payoff, but they involve coordinated play like chip dumping or trying to isolate certain players rather than just knowledge of 2 random cards.

    If you want to see what real cheating looks like, here's a simulation of the tournament that Absolute Poker player "potripper" won by accessing a superuser account, which was able to see every player's cards at the table.

    Thanks for the very informative reply.

    My question would be whether the online poker places have any interest in rooting out cheating or does it work to their advantage as a business? At least in the past, that charge has been leveled against ebay wrt to shill bidding. And online dating sites are hardly diligent in rooting out misrepresentations by their users, which suggests that this is viewed at least neutrally if not positively by operators of such sites. There is lots of easy, low buck stuff they all could be doing but they all don’t.

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