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Brad DeLong: Yeah, OK, I Guess My Old Student, Fed Nominee Lisa Cook, Did Screw Up Her Patent Paper ... But Not Fatally!
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From economist Brad DeLong’s “Grasping Reality” substack punching up at critics of Fed nominee Lisa Cook’s paper on black patents:

I’ve engaged with Harald [Uhlig, former chair of the U. of Chicago Economics Dept.] before, and found it a waste of time. He’s not a data person… When Lisa came to Berkeley to present this, we gave her a hard time on the data point, and she convinced us that it was a real discontinuity in patenting, and not simply a failure to identify patents by Blacks. People who had been patenting in the 1890s, and ought to have been patenting in the 1900s, weren’t, IIRC…

I had failed to bring to mind that her responses to the data questions were not just that “there is a break not just in the aggregate series but in individual inventors’ patenting patterns around 1900”, but that also there was a broader sharp fall in entrepreneurial activity by African-Americans: newspapers, for example. After checking, other people at the seminar I saw say that they thought this figure did the most in putting to rest fears that all of the ca.-1900 decline was a data artifact. If it is all a data artifact, it is a very broad one:

In contrast, my first suspicion is the sharp decline in new black newspapers after 1900 in Lisa Cook’s database is due to the exact same cause as the sharp decline in patents: impressive federally funded efforts were made by top men in early 1900 to collect evidence of African-American progress for the Exhibit of American Negroes that occupied one-fourth of the U.S. Pavilion at the 1900 Paris World’s Fair.

And indeed, here’s a data graphic that W.E.B. Du Bois had drawn up by his research assistants in 1900.

Du Bois had his team draw up avant garde graphs to bring some visual flair to the display of sociological data in the world’s art capital.

This Triangle Graph hasn’t caught on (for good reasons), but the point is that we have much better contemporary coverage of African-American history for the years up into the early months of 1900 than for following years. Cook decided upon a very conservative standard for evaluating black patents, requiring the patent number for her to count it, which means she is no doubt missing a lot of obscure data points that she’d have counted if they’d happened in, say, 1899 rather than in 1901. Same for newspapers, probably.

DeLong goes on:

Her second, panel, set of regression results in Table 7 does, for the most part, use the ca.-1900 decline as part of its identifying variance. But column 6, which looks only at the 1918-1940 sample, does not. It looks as though the computer does take the time-series dimension of the absence of riots and the boom in inventive activity from 1880-1895 as its signal that white violence in the form of race-riots is substantially correlated with low patenting, but even in the post-WWI sample there is plenty of cross-sectional state identifying variation for the computer to judge that places where there are a lot of lynchings are places where it is very unhealthy to be a Black inventor as well:

Sure, but everybody always knew it was better for upwardly mobile blacks, like inventors, to be in the North than in the South in 1918-1940. Heck, it was better for white inventors to live in the North than in the South.

Cook’s claim to fame is that she discovered a sudden national drop in black inventiveness from 1899 to 1900, which nobody had ever heard of before.

I do not think Harald Uhlig has read Lisa Cook’s paper at all.

If you read the paper, you noticed that Table 6 and column 6 of Table 7 did not rest at all on the apparent sharp decline in African-American patenting in 1900. That possible data discontinuity is not a “fatal flaw”. Nobody who had read the paper would call it such.

It’s an issue with the series, and a factor to be worried about in evaluating columns (1)-(5) of Table 7. But, then, in good papers there are always data issues.

But “fatal flaw’“? Only somebody who has not read the paper, and does not care that they have not read the paper, would say so.

In other words, DeLong is more or less admitting that his former’s student’s famous finding of a sharp change from 1899 to 1900 likely never happened and it’s just an artifact of Cook getting confused. But, her completely boring finding that blacks in the South were less likely to earn patents than blacks in the North is valid, so therefore her purported qualifications to be Federal Reserve Governor should not be questioned.

 
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  1. Not sure your point on all of this.

    Are you saying that she shouldn’t be nominated? If so, why not come out and say it?

    Of course, she’s not even remotely qualified to be appointed to this position compared to white and Asian economists. But, so what. We don’t live in a colorblind meritocracy. Everyone knows that.

    She’s nominated because she’s one of the better black candidates. We live in a tribal society, and this is how multiracial societies work.

    Why are you continually surprised by a reality that has existed for decades.?

    • Replies: @Greta Handel
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    He’s not “surprised.” Mr. Sailer’s a copium denmother for disaffected white guys. Punching up at its black lady prevents Noticing the Establishment’s COVID tyranny and warmongering.

    That academic or technical qualifications of the Fed’s BoG are relevant to its decisions is, of course, a joke.

    Replies: @PhysicistDave, @Bill Jones, @San Fernando Curt

    , @PhysicistDave
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Citizen of a Silly Country wrote:


    She’s nominated because she’s one of the better black candidates.
     
    Oh, c'mon.

    Given the roughly one sigma difference in average Black and White IQs, and given the number of Blacks in this country, it is a statistical certainty that there are quite a few very bright Blacks. Any well-read person can name some of them.

    Lisa Cook just happens not to be one of them.

    Replies: @Bill Jones, @SafeNow, @puttheforkdown, @Citizen of a Silly Country

    , @Henry's Cat
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    If every other Steve post (the rest would be about golf courses) just stated: 'Race realism is real - ignoring it has consequences' would you be such a regular?

    Let Steve do his thang.

    Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country

    , @nokangaroos
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    You raise an interesting point - for quabbling subspecies that are not about to change
    the Lebanese model of absolute representation might indeed be superior.
    Slightly unconstitutional but 0.3 Jews in the cabinet and 4 WASPs in the SCOTUS
    sounds good :D

    , @Art Deco
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    She’s nominated because she’s one of the better black candidates.

    No, she was nominated because she was a well-connected black candidate. You fancy the dame they wanted to install as Comptroller of the Currency was 'one of the better candidates'?

    Replies: @Inquiring Mind, @Citizen of a Silly Country

    , @Anonymous
    @Citizen of a Silly Country


    We live in a tribal society, and this is how multiracial societies work.
     
    Nope. This is how multiracial societies fail. I've spent some time in Federal bureaucracies, and most of the effort in such organizations is devoted to covering up for the utter incompetence of the workers. They have no effective chain of command or technical skills. Much of the effort and plotting is devoted to preventing any action that might need technical skills, usually by false reporting to management.

    "Political reality" doesn't just dominate, it displaces.

    Many people get badly hurt or killed, as in the Iraq fiasco (no military government was ready after the conquest), the Afghanistan fiasco (same thing), the 2008 international financial panic, and now the Fauci Plague.

    Which gives you such horror shows as the Katrina relief efforts, or the Afghanistan rout, or the FBI/CIA collusion to neuter Trump, or (finally) the utter panic among today's Democrats, their implausible propaganda, their reliance on brute and obvious force, and their reliance on election manipulation. Such is the mature form of any "tribal society" and any political machine. It's why Western European countries have a complete reorganization about every four score and seven years, as Lincoln put it.

    Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country

    , @Colin Wright
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    'She’s nominated because she’s one of the better black candidates. We live in a tribal society, and this is how multiracial societies work.'

    How would we know how multi-racial societies would work -- at least, egalitarian ones?

    None ever has -- and at the moment, we're demonstrating that we won't be the first.

    Why don't you go test the world's first concrete parachute? It's at least as reasonable a proposition.

    Replies: @Cato

    , @bigduke6
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Cook is an ethnonarcissist fraud and the establishment is deathly afraid of pointing out obvious black incompetence. How slow are you if you can't grasp those points?

    , @ScarletNumber
    @Citizen of a Silly Country


    Are you saying that she shouldn’t be nominated? If so, why not come out and say it?
     
    Because Steve's a coward

    Replies: @Jack D, @Mike Tre, @Citizen of a Silly Country

  2. • Replies: @Muggles
    @Johann Ricke

    Pig bites man?

    Pig bites Icahn?

    Icahn bites pig, but only if pig has nice life before being slaughtered?

    Wall St. pig fights for actual pigs?

    Big pig champions small pigs?

    Pigs demand Carl Icahn be slaughtered too.

    Vegans demand Icahn stop eating pigs regardless.

    MacDonald's to Icahn and pigs, the McRib is here to stay...

    Replies: @Jack D, @Escher

  3. This Triangle Graph

    That pyramid has an awfully muddy-looking plinth. It wouldn’t survive a rainy season.

    Sure, but everybody always knew it was better for upwardly mobile blacks, like inventors, in the North than in the South in 1918-1940.

    There was no “North” after 1865. The capitalization is anachronistic.

  4. Great, you mentioned his name. Now it’s only a matter of time before DeLong shows up here and engages in his usual buffoonery. The guy is a complete tool who has never made an honest good faith argument in his life.

    • Agree: Yancey Ward
    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob
    @Space Ghost


    The guy is a complete tool who has never made an honest good faith argument in his life.
     
    Au contraire, my friend. DeLong made this excellent assessment of HRC back in 2003 which Steve wrote about here: https://www.unz.com/isteve/ex-clinton-staffer-brad-delongs-post-on-hillarys-management-skills/. For some unknown reason, the link to the page on his website no longer works.

    June 07, 2003

    TIME TO POUND MY HEAD AGAINST THE WALL ONCE AGAIN

    … My two cents’ worth–and I think it is the two cents’ worth of everybody who worked for the Clinton Administration health care reform effort of 1993-1994–is that Hillary Rodham Clinton needs to be kept very far away from the White House for the rest of her life. Heading up health-care reform was the only major administrative job she has ever tried to do. And she was a complete flop at it. She had neither the grasp of policy substance, the managerial skills, nor the political smarts to do the job she was then given. And she wasn’t smart enough to realize that she was in over her head and had to get out of the Health Care Czar role quickly.

    So when senior members of the economic team said that key senators like Daniel Patrick Moynihan would have this-and-that objection, she told them they were disloyal. When junior members of the economic team told her that the Congressional Budget Office would say such-and-such, she told them (wrongly) that her conversations with CBO head Robert Reischauer had already fixed that. When long-time senior hill staffers told her that she was making a dreadful mistake by fighting with rather than reaching out to John Breaux and Jim Cooper, she told them that they did not understand the wave of popular political support the bill would generate. And when substantive objections were raised to the plan by analysts calculating the moral hazard and adverse selection pressures it would put on the nation’s health-care system…

    Hillary Rodham Clinton has already flopped as a senior administrative official in the executive branch–the equivalent of an Undersecretary. Perhaps she will make a good senator. But there is no reason to think that she would be anything but an abysmal president.

    Posted by DeLong at June 7, 2003 10:15 PM | TrackBack

    Replies: @res, @Ben tillman

  5. Anon[392] • Disclaimer says:

    OT: Remember that Antifa shooting in Portland a couple days ago? Well, it turns out Antifa tried to pick a fight with a Gypsy Joker biker gang member. I thought that was absolutely nuts when I read about it, but there is indeed a video with an Antifa spokes-its ranting about the Gypsy Jokers and how the Portland cops failed to protect them against the Gypsy Jokers.

    Here’s a news link:
    https://archive.org/details/unreliablememoir00jame

    This fits the psychology of people who are constantly protesting. What they want is to provoke a reaction. If they don’t get a reaction, they go looking around for people who will give them the reaction. Antifa trying to escalate things by picking a fight with a biker gang fits a pattern of psychologically disturbed individuals whose primary motivator is getting attention.

    • Replies: @additionalMike
    @Anon

    The rivals of the Hell's Angels, still around, since 1965?
    Hunter Thompson would appreciate this.

    Replies: @Malcolm X-Lax

    , @anonymous
    @Anon

    I can't for the life of me understand why Trump supporters didn't recruit White biker clubs to contest the streets with Antifa in 2020.

    The only group that apparently tried to contest the streets were "The Proud Boys".

    The NRA Guns, Guns, Guns types were AWOL as usual. Where military veterans VFW.

    America needs organic versions of the Cossacks - there is even a biker club with that name.

    JR
    The Political Cesspool

    Replies: @Veteran Aryan

  6. That ‘Triangle Chart’ looks way too modern to date from 1900, but just like Cook’s graphics it’s thoroughly misleading – the ‘grand total’, that is the sum of the parts, is included as another ‘sum of the parts’, thus exaggerating to the eye the actual total of the newspapers.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Anonymous

    Right, it's a bad graph, but it looks cool.

    Du Bois had his team create lots of futuristic looking graphs for the 1900 World's Fair:

    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/first-time-together-and-color-book-displays-web-du-bois-visionary-infographics-180970826/

    They went all out to add some color and visual flair to their part of the World's Fair exhibit in the world's art capital.

  7. In related news, Reparations for Illegal Immigrants continue apace.

    Apparently there are thousands of these stories, with minor variations. It’s a multi-billion dollar “industry” now. https://mol.im/a/10534259

    • Replies: @AndrewR
    @HammerJack

    This reminds me of the old adage: you can't con an honest man. Why would a 78 year old think that a 30 year old would be romantically interested in him? Dementia, perhaps? I am finding it hard to be entirely sympathetic.

    Replies: @Barnard, @Hibernian, @HammerJack

  8. I think Antifa consists of Hippie Marxists who are more athletic than Hippie Marxists usually tend to be; however, they don’t have any business provoking motorcycle gangs. On second thought, maybe we’d all be better off if more of them did, more often.

    • Agree: PhysicistDave
  9. @Anonymous
    That 'Triangle Chart' looks way too modern to date from 1900, but just like Cook's graphics it's thoroughly misleading - the 'grand total', that is the sum of the parts, is included as another 'sum of the parts', thus exaggerating to the eye the actual total of the newspapers.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    Right, it’s a bad graph, but it looks cool.

    Du Bois had his team create lots of futuristic looking graphs for the 1900 World’s Fair:

    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/first-time-together-and-color-book-displays-web-du-bois-visionary-infographics-180970826/

    They went all out to add some color and visual flair to their part of the World’s Fair exhibit in the world’s art capital.

  10. @Citizen of a Silly Country
    Not sure your point on all of this.

    Are you saying that she shouldn't be nominated? If so, why not come out and say it?

    Of course, she's not even remotely qualified to be appointed to this position compared to white and Asian economists. But, so what. We don't live in a colorblind meritocracy. Everyone knows that.

    She's nominated because she's one of the better black candidates. We live in a tribal society, and this is how multiracial societies work.

    Why are you continually surprised by a reality that has existed for decades.?

    Replies: @Greta Handel, @PhysicistDave, @Henry's Cat, @nokangaroos, @Art Deco, @Anonymous, @Colin Wright, @bigduke6, @ScarletNumber

    He’s not “surprised.” Mr. Sailer’s a copium denmother for disaffected white guys. Punching up at its black lady prevents Noticing the Establishment’s COVID tyranny and warmongering.

    That academic or technical qualifications of the Fed’s BoG are relevant to its decisions is, of course, a joke.

    • Replies: @PhysicistDave
    @Greta Handel

    Greta Handel wrote:


    That academic or technical qualifications of the Fed’s BoG are relevant to its decisions is, of course, a joke.
     
    Are you trying to say that Alan Greenspan isn't really a genius?

    Soon you'll be claiming that our ruling elite is a little bit less than fully competent.

    Now, take Ukraine... please!
    , @Bill Jones
    @Greta Handel

    Sailer's is the go-to place for civic nationalism and credentialist subservience.

    Despite all the evidence in every country in the West almost no-one accepts that Pol Pot was right.

    Replies: @Muggles, @Sam Haysom

    , @San Fernando Curt
    @Greta Handel


    Mr. Sailer’s a copium denmother for disaffected white guys.
     
    Nice line. It's always refreshing to see analysis fluffed with air so rarefied.
  11. Taking one for the team, I skimmed the Cook paper from a link in the DeLong apologia. Table 6 is patently troubling for her thesis. Riots – included in her full equation modelling patents – were much higher in the 1900s than the 1890s. The dummy variable for the 1900 break was found to hold for white patents too! And the fit of the equation for black patents, R2 of 0.283; ie 72% unexplained, would not impress a primary school teacher of statistics. And at the outset she baldly states “Race is not recorded in patent records”. Yes, her English is that limited. But more importantly, there is no pause for humility – that her edifice of ‘violence deterred black inventiveness’ really can’t be put to the sort of rigorous data test which that sort of inflammatory claim would require. Instead she jumps down the rabbit hole of more obscure data and proxies, willy nilly.

    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666
    @TyRade

    It's a double-whammy of stupidity and dishonesty. First, she used obviously bad data to rig a fake "inflection" point on a graph. Then she just assumes the fake inflection is caused by whatever fake cause she wants it to be (White Supremacy, natch).

    This what the left means by "socially constructing" reality. Whenever the NYT says "scholars have found . . ." or "experts have shown . . .," it is this kind of fake scholarship they are referring to.

  12. @HammerJack
    In related news, Reparations for Illegal Immigrants continue apace.

    https://i.ibb.co/6vbhT4r/Screenshot-20220221-025347-Daily-Mail-Online.jpg

    Apparently there are thousands of these stories, with minor variations. It's a multi-billion dollar "industry" now. https://mol.im/a/10534259

    Replies: @AndrewR

    This reminds me of the old adage: you can’t con an honest man. Why would a 78 year old think that a 30 year old would be romantically interested in him? Dementia, perhaps? I am finding it hard to be entirely sympathetic.

    • Replies: @Barnard
    @AndrewR

    Also, why would he think a 30 year old woman who repeatedly gets arrested would make a good romantic interest for him? The full article says he does have dementia and used to be a fraud investigator.

    , @Hibernian
    @AndrewR

    $600,000.00 from a 78 year old man? I think we can all agree that a 30 year old woman is a grown woman.

    , @HammerJack
    @AndrewR


    Dementia, perhaps?
     
    Well yes, the article states that the man is suffering from dementia. There will be more and more of these stories, I expect.

    A close friend's father (another case) was taken for everything he was worth, in a non-romantic scenario. Something like an investment scheme.

    Replies: @AndrewR

  13. Du Bois’ “vision” of American black destiny conquered all others’. Booker T. Washington, Marcus Garvey, MLK, Stokely Carmichael, Malcolm X … had their own solutions to the “Negro problem”.

    Du Bois was, it seems, more successful. He, if we consider his ideology, though that the best option for blacks was to live a sort of parasitic existence through emotional blackmail of whites, constantly drumming upon whites’ guilty conscience. I am not saying that other black leaders didn’t use his world-view, but for them, it was a tactical weapon. For him, it was a grand strategy.

    And it worked.

    • Thanks: AnotherDad
  14. 1. Economy roaring back

    2. Trucker Canadian protestors getting the J6 treatment

    3. Russia about to get its butt kicked by the diverse American military

    4. Conservatives being held accountable

    5. Bank accounts being frozen

    6. Juwan Howard defends self against aggressive white men

    7. Demographic change continues

    8. All journalists dislike rubes

    9. All academics dislike rubes

    10. Men of Children Color impregnating white girls

    Dang it feels good being progressive!

    • Troll: Wade Hampton
    • Replies: @tyrone
    @Ebony Obelisk

    Just don't go pushing any body in front of a subway train......remember to take your meds.....see, we care here in the Steve-o-sphere.

    , @kaganovitch
    @Ebony Obelisk

    As the Good Book says "The king of Israel replied, “Tell him, ‘Let not one who puts on armor boast like one who takes it off.’”

    , @The Germ Theory of Disease
    @Ebony Obelisk

    "Dang it feels good being progressive!"


    Dang, I bet it'll feel even better when all you Progressives of Color are slaves of the Chinese.

    Didn't think that far ahead, didya.

    You types never do.

  15. @Citizen of a Silly Country
    Not sure your point on all of this.

    Are you saying that she shouldn't be nominated? If so, why not come out and say it?

    Of course, she's not even remotely qualified to be appointed to this position compared to white and Asian economists. But, so what. We don't live in a colorblind meritocracy. Everyone knows that.

    She's nominated because she's one of the better black candidates. We live in a tribal society, and this is how multiracial societies work.

    Why are you continually surprised by a reality that has existed for decades.?

    Replies: @Greta Handel, @PhysicistDave, @Henry's Cat, @nokangaroos, @Art Deco, @Anonymous, @Colin Wright, @bigduke6, @ScarletNumber

    Citizen of a Silly Country wrote:

    She’s nominated because she’s one of the better black candidates.

    Oh, c’mon.

    Given the roughly one sigma difference in average Black and White IQs, and given the number of Blacks in this country, it is a statistical certainty that there are quite a few very bright Blacks. Any well-read person can name some of them.

    Lisa Cook just happens not to be one of them.

    • Replies: @Bill Jones
    @PhysicistDave


    it is a statistical certainty that there are quite a few very bright Blacks.
     
    That is not the point.
    You missed the important noun: "Candidates".

    To start the week with an unspoken truth, I read somewhere over the weekend that Trudeau revealed his pronouns:
    he/hid

    , @SafeNow
    @PhysicistDave


    it is a statistical certainty that there are quite a few very bright Blacks
     
    Good point. But because the very economic fate and therefore the societal fate of the country is at stake, I will suggest using a rigorous definition of “very bright.” I have seen “very bright” defined as IQ of 160 or above. The U.S. has only 10,000 such people. (China has 300,000. As Steve would say, uh-oh.) The black share, ceteris paribus (a stretch), is 1,300. Many, of course, are teenagers. Many are physicists. Probably only a few are economists.

    Replies: @Jack D

    , @puttheforkdown
    @PhysicistDave

    > it is a statistical certainty that there are quite a few very bright Blacks.

    There isn't a single person of African descent in the chess top 100. A black person has never cracked the 2600 ELO rating.

    People make chess sets in prison. What's the hold up here? Maurice Ashley is the best black player ever and came nowhere close. He peaked in the measly low 2500s.

    A cursory look at normal distributions, Z scores, SDs and bell curves don't tell the entire story here.

    , @Citizen of a Silly Country
    @PhysicistDave

    Hmm. Interesting that you avoided my point that there are better qualified white and Asian economists.

    Regardless, I'm gkad to see that you've accepted that in a multiracial society, important positions should be doled out on a racial basis.

    I know that it took a lot for you to give up your colorblind meritocracy fantasy. I'm proud of you Dave.

    Replies: @PhysicistDave

  16. @Greta Handel
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    He’s not “surprised.” Mr. Sailer’s a copium denmother for disaffected white guys. Punching up at its black lady prevents Noticing the Establishment’s COVID tyranny and warmongering.

    That academic or technical qualifications of the Fed’s BoG are relevant to its decisions is, of course, a joke.

    Replies: @PhysicistDave, @Bill Jones, @San Fernando Curt

    Greta Handel wrote:

    That academic or technical qualifications of the Fed’s BoG are relevant to its decisions is, of course, a joke.

    Are you trying to say that Alan Greenspan isn’t really a genius?

    Soon you’ll be claiming that our ruling elite is a little bit less than fully competent.

    Now, take Ukraine… please!

    • Thanks: Muggles
  17. @Citizen of a Silly Country
    Not sure your point on all of this.

    Are you saying that she shouldn't be nominated? If so, why not come out and say it?

    Of course, she's not even remotely qualified to be appointed to this position compared to white and Asian economists. But, so what. We don't live in a colorblind meritocracy. Everyone knows that.

    She's nominated because she's one of the better black candidates. We live in a tribal society, and this is how multiracial societies work.

    Why are you continually surprised by a reality that has existed for decades.?

    Replies: @Greta Handel, @PhysicistDave, @Henry's Cat, @nokangaroos, @Art Deco, @Anonymous, @Colin Wright, @bigduke6, @ScarletNumber

    If every other Steve post (the rest would be about golf courses) just stated: ‘Race realism is real – ignoring it has consequences’ would you be such a regular?

    Let Steve do his thang.

    • Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country
    @Henry's Cat

    Steve used to move past noticing. Now, he doesn't. It's reasonable to ask why.

    Regardless, we should all ask ourselves what's the point, what is it that we want to achieve. Steve refuses to answer that simple question.

    His readers should find that odd.

    Replies: @Henry's Cat

  18. @Citizen of a Silly Country
    Not sure your point on all of this.

    Are you saying that she shouldn't be nominated? If so, why not come out and say it?

    Of course, she's not even remotely qualified to be appointed to this position compared to white and Asian economists. But, so what. We don't live in a colorblind meritocracy. Everyone knows that.

    She's nominated because she's one of the better black candidates. We live in a tribal society, and this is how multiracial societies work.

    Why are you continually surprised by a reality that has existed for decades.?

    Replies: @Greta Handel, @PhysicistDave, @Henry's Cat, @nokangaroos, @Art Deco, @Anonymous, @Colin Wright, @bigduke6, @ScarletNumber

    You raise an interesting point – for quabbling subspecies that are not about to change
    the Lebanese model of absolute representation might indeed be superior.
    Slightly unconstitutional but 0.3 Jews in the cabinet and 4 WASPs in the SCOTUS
    sounds good 😀

  19. Economist Lisa Denell Cook = Lisa mistook. Concede? ’Ell, no!

  20. The real question left unanswered is, is it likely any appointee would be good, even the ones with the right credentials? Economists haven’t covered themselves in glory over the last 50 years.

    • Replies: @Greta Handel
    @Altai

    The Fed’s been really good for the owners of our financialized “economy.”

    , @Hibernian
    @Altai


    Economists haven’t covered themselves in glory over the last 50 years.
     
    Or even reached a conclusion.

    Replies: @Altai

  21. The 1900 break was highlighted as the key data point by everyone who commented on this paper before the data selection bias was noted. Now it’s supposedly all about the cross-state differential. However, the north was much more economically active from 1870 to 1940, so blacks and whites would have been more active in the north by any metric. The north would have had fewer lynchings and riots. This is known as an omitted variables bias: if you omit a significant variable, other variables correlated with that significant omitted variable will pick up its significance, giving it illusory significance.

    Steve should be familiar with this because it is a similar story to the famous Levitt abortion paper, where an initial decline in Black crime was initially touted via a time series. Later when noted the crack peak circa 1990 was noted, they retreated to the cross-state differential.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @eric

    Thanks.

  22. @Citizen of a Silly Country
    Not sure your point on all of this.

    Are you saying that she shouldn't be nominated? If so, why not come out and say it?

    Of course, she's not even remotely qualified to be appointed to this position compared to white and Asian economists. But, so what. We don't live in a colorblind meritocracy. Everyone knows that.

    She's nominated because she's one of the better black candidates. We live in a tribal society, and this is how multiracial societies work.

    Why are you continually surprised by a reality that has existed for decades.?

    Replies: @Greta Handel, @PhysicistDave, @Henry's Cat, @nokangaroos, @Art Deco, @Anonymous, @Colin Wright, @bigduke6, @ScarletNumber

    She’s nominated because she’s one of the better black candidates.

    No, she was nominated because she was a well-connected black candidate. You fancy the dame they wanted to install as Comptroller of the Currency was ‘one of the better candidates’?

    • Replies: @Inquiring Mind
    @Art Deco

    Boosting swag from a T J Maxx -- a job no American of any race would want to be doing.

    , @Citizen of a Silly Country
    @Art Deco

    True, but my point still stands. Hee appointment was based on race and that's how things work in a multiracial society; indeed, that's how things should work in a multiracial society.

    That's reality. This colorblind meritocracy fantasy held by so many around here isn't.

  23. I used to follow Broad de Short’s blog but gave up because (i) he censored comments too avidly, and (ii) much of what he had to say was tendentious poppycock.

    And if a personal remark may be allowed, I got the impression that he was both short tempered and a bit dim.

  24. But, then, in good papers there are always data issues.

    I don’t even know where to start with this one.

    I wish I experienced this kind of loving indulgence on my dissertation and peer-reviewed articles.

    • Replies: @ic1000
    @Twinkie

    > I wish I experienced this kind of loving indulgence on my dissertation and peer-reviewed articles.

    Lisa Cook cannot have been wrong because she used a flawed methodology. Softball critiques and fulsome praise from Romer, Long, and their peers cannot have influenced how she tackled research questions.

    If such things were possible, Apollo 13 would crash into the moon because of Hidden Figures' slide rule goofups.

    That would be a disaster!

    Replies: @Twinkie

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @Twinkie


    I wish I experienced this kind of loving indulgence on my dissertation and peer-reviewed articles.
     
    The Data Game would appeal to fans of Jeopardy. With trannies rather than serial killers:



    https://s.abcnews.com/images/US/dating-game-killer-rodney-alcala-01-gty-llr-210105_1609867167896_hpMain_16x9_992.jpg
  25. Brad Long:

    I’ve engaged with Harald [Uhlig, former chair of the U. of Chicago Economics Dept.] before, and found it a waste of time. He’s not a data person…

    Also Brad Long:

    It looks as though the computer does take the time-series dimension of the absence of riots and the boom in inventive activity from 1880-1895 as its signal that white violence in the form of race-riots is substantially correlated with low patenting, but even in the post-WWI sample there is plenty of cross-sectional state identifying variation for the computer to judge that places where there are a lot of lynchings are places where it is very unhealthy to be a Black inventor as well.

    Not-A-Data-Person word salad to explain away Cook’s clear prose in the article’s Abstract: “Absence of the rule of law covaries with declines in patent productivity for white and black inventors, but this decline is significant only for African American inventors.”

    Hey, Prof Long, what’s the twist on the expression “the pot calling the kettle black,” when the pot and the kettle are both you?

    Oh, yeah. Projection.

    • Thanks: John Milton’s Ghost
  26. @Altai
    The real question left unanswered is, is it likely any appointee would be good, even the ones with the right credentials? Economists haven't covered themselves in glory over the last 50 years.

    Replies: @Greta Handel, @Hibernian

    The Fed’s been really good for the owners of our financialized “economy.”

  27. @Twinkie

    But, then, in good papers there are always data issues.
     
    I don’t even know where to start with this one.

    I wish I experienced this kind of loving indulgence on my dissertation and peer-reviewed articles.

    Replies: @ic1000, @Reg Cæsar

    > I wish I experienced this kind of loving indulgence on my dissertation and peer-reviewed articles.

    Lisa Cook cannot have been wrong because she used a flawed methodology. Softball critiques and fulsome praise from Romer, Long, and their peers cannot have influenced how she tackled research questions.

    If such things were possible, Apollo 13 would crash into the moon because of Hidden Figures’ slide rule goofups.

    That would be a disaster!

    • Replies: @Twinkie
    @ic1000

    We never went to the moon.

    https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-h5Lo1c1LPR8/UFaar2HJcWI/AAAAAAAAS1o/nOSmAGOwwK4/s1600/Speilberg-Director-of-Moon-Landing-Hoax--59751.jpg

    Replies: @Ben tillman

  28. @ic1000
    @Twinkie

    > I wish I experienced this kind of loving indulgence on my dissertation and peer-reviewed articles.

    Lisa Cook cannot have been wrong because she used a flawed methodology. Softball critiques and fulsome praise from Romer, Long, and their peers cannot have influenced how she tackled research questions.

    If such things were possible, Apollo 13 would crash into the moon because of Hidden Figures' slide rule goofups.

    That would be a disaster!

    Replies: @Twinkie

    We never went to the moon.

    • Agree: ic1000
    • Thanks: Hangnail Hans
    • Replies: @Ben tillman
    @Twinkie

    Alan Funt. Ha ha.

  29. @PhysicistDave
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Citizen of a Silly Country wrote:


    She’s nominated because she’s one of the better black candidates.
     
    Oh, c'mon.

    Given the roughly one sigma difference in average Black and White IQs, and given the number of Blacks in this country, it is a statistical certainty that there are quite a few very bright Blacks. Any well-read person can name some of them.

    Lisa Cook just happens not to be one of them.

    Replies: @Bill Jones, @SafeNow, @puttheforkdown, @Citizen of a Silly Country

    it is a statistical certainty that there are quite a few very bright Blacks.

    That is not the point.
    You missed the important noun: “Candidates”.

    To start the week with an unspoken truth, I read somewhere over the weekend that Trudeau revealed his pronouns:
    he/hid

  30. @Anon
    OT: Remember that Antifa shooting in Portland a couple days ago? Well, it turns out Antifa tried to pick a fight with a Gypsy Joker biker gang member. I thought that was absolutely nuts when I read about it, but there is indeed a video with an Antifa spokes-its ranting about the Gypsy Jokers and how the Portland cops failed to protect them against the Gypsy Jokers.

    Here's a news link:
    Https://archive.org/details/unreliablememoir00jame

    This fits the psychology of people who are constantly protesting. What they want is to provoke a reaction. If they don't get a reaction, they go looking around for people who will give them the reaction. Antifa trying to escalate things by picking a fight with a biker gang fits a pattern of psychologically disturbed individuals whose primary motivator is getting attention.

    Replies: @additionalMike, @anonymous

    The rivals of the Hell’s Angels, still around, since 1965?
    Hunter Thompson would appreciate this.

    • Replies: @Malcolm X-Lax
    @additionalMike

    They need to hire a new PR brother because I'd never heard of them before.

  31. @Greta Handel
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    He’s not “surprised.” Mr. Sailer’s a copium denmother for disaffected white guys. Punching up at its black lady prevents Noticing the Establishment’s COVID tyranny and warmongering.

    That academic or technical qualifications of the Fed’s BoG are relevant to its decisions is, of course, a joke.

    Replies: @PhysicistDave, @Bill Jones, @San Fernando Curt

    Sailer’s is the go-to place for civic nationalism and credentialist subservience.

    Despite all the evidence in every country in the West almost no-one accepts that Pol Pot was right.

    • Replies: @Muggles
    @Bill Jones


    Despite all the evidence in every country in the West almost no-one accepts that Pol Pot was right.
     
    What? That Cambodia was dangerously overpopulated before he came along?

    Replies: @bigduke6

    , @Sam Haysom
    @Bill Jones

    Which has always been kind of cringe because his credentials have always been just above average especially for the era he grew up in.

    Replies: @kaganovitch

  32. Anon[422] • Disclaimer says:

    One dead, five injured in a mass shouting event in Portland. Armed homeowner vs. “armed protesters” in a residential community. Something to do with a month-old police shooting in Minneapolis. Nobody will talk to the police. The media won’t mention race.

    Sailor’s Law of mass shootings? But there are no black people in Portland. Anifa also follows a snitches get stitches policy. So was it white losers and trannies, or blacks? And who was the homeowner?

  33. @Altai
    The real question left unanswered is, is it likely any appointee would be good, even the ones with the right credentials? Economists haven't covered themselves in glory over the last 50 years.

    Replies: @Greta Handel, @Hibernian

    Economists haven’t covered themselves in glory over the last 50 years.

    Or even reached a conclusion.

    • LOL: Mike Tre
    • Replies: @Altai
    @Hibernian

    It's what separates it from a real science. Economics is just guru-ism.

    Partly this is because people pushing agendas will always use 'good for the economy' as if there is some definable policy that is a: Good for everyone and b: Produces the same outcome over time.

    It's perfectly possible to have a science of economics but it requires one to be honest about the consequences of economic policy on particular people and society and if neoliberals were honest about their paradigm they'd be in big trouble in a democracy.

    It makes my head hurt when I hear the same people complain about poor Mexican immigrants coming to the US working for such low wages and immigration restrictions.

    That poor Mexican immigrants get exploited economically in the US is the whole point! Imagine what the attitude from the elite would be if poor immigrants actually raised wages and reduced inequality? (IE the relative power and influence of the rich) They'd be calling for soldiers to gun them down at the border to protect the sacred motherland.

    Economic policy for what? Economic policy for whom?

  34. I had failed to bring to mind that her responses to the data questions were not just that “there is a break not just in the aggregate series but in individual inventors’ patenting patterns around 1900”, but that also there was a broader sharp fall in entrepreneurial activity by African-Americans: newspapers, for example. After checking, other people at the seminar I saw say that they thought this figure [time series of patents & newspapers] did the most in putting to rest fears that all of the ca.-1900 decline was a data artifact. If it is all a data artifact, it is a very broad one

    Motte and Bailey.

    “When Lisa gave her powerful seminar at Berkeley, the smartest people in the room challenged her ca.-[sic] 1900-patent-cliff, and she won us over with her persuasive newspaper data.”

    “Cook’s 1900-patent-cliff is an artifact, but maybe newspaper founding rates hint at something there anyway.”

    Pick one.

    For context, here’s the transcript of NPR’s Planet Racism interview of Cook in 2020. Brad DeLong may be overwhelmed by the subtleties, nuances, and ambiguities of Lisa Cook’s research. Quite a contrast to the plain-spoken Professor Cook, herself.

  35. From DeLong’s substack:

    You know, if someone were brought to you, and you were told that they had been deputy team lead for financial regulation and such issues during a presidential transition, had been the point staff economist for the White House on the Eurozone dimension of the 2008 to 2012 financial crisis, had been a special advisor to the secretary of the treasury on finance and development, and had been a Hoover Institution National Fellow, your reaction would not have been “this is an unqualified person put forward to advance some sinister non-technocratic agenda”, let alone someone put forward because she strokes the “erogenous zones of progressives”.

    But it turns out that if the person with this impressive resume was a black woman, one’s suspicion should have been “this is an unqualified person put forward to advance some sinister non-technocratic agenda” and because she strokes the “erogenous zones of progressives”.

    • Agree: Ben tillman
    • Replies: @Ben tillman
    @Calvin Hobbes

    Of course. DeLong’s always been a stupid/dishonest anti-white racist.

  36. “Fatal but not serious.”

    I leave the attribution of this quote as an exercise to the reader.

  37. @Art Deco
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    She’s nominated because she’s one of the better black candidates.

    No, she was nominated because she was a well-connected black candidate. You fancy the dame they wanted to install as Comptroller of the Currency was 'one of the better candidates'?

    Replies: @Inquiring Mind, @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Boosting swag from a T J Maxx — a job no American of any race would want to be doing.

  38. DeLong:
    First: Question: Have Harald Uhlig & Company Read Lisa Cook’s Paper at All? Answer: No. Only somebody who has not read the paper, and does not care that they have not read the paper, would say so.

    Harald Uhlig’s objection to Cook’s nomination to the Fed is that Cook does not want people (like Uhlig, for example) to say things that Cook disagrees with.

    And who is in DeLong’s “& Company”? Maybe Steve “Lord Voldemort” Sailer?

    DeLong defend’s Cook paper by saying “this regression analysis says this” and “this regression analysis says that”, when Cook’s absurd time-series graph screams “this data is shit!”

  39. It’s an issue with the series, and a factor to be worried about in evaluating columns (1)-(5) of Table 7. But, then, in good papers there are always data issues.

    Right; that’s how you know they’re good!

    • LOL: Calvin Hobbes
  40. @PhysicistDave
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Citizen of a Silly Country wrote:


    She’s nominated because she’s one of the better black candidates.
     
    Oh, c'mon.

    Given the roughly one sigma difference in average Black and White IQs, and given the number of Blacks in this country, it is a statistical certainty that there are quite a few very bright Blacks. Any well-read person can name some of them.

    Lisa Cook just happens not to be one of them.

    Replies: @Bill Jones, @SafeNow, @puttheforkdown, @Citizen of a Silly Country

    it is a statistical certainty that there are quite a few very bright Blacks

    Good point. But because the very economic fate and therefore the societal fate of the country is at stake, I will suggest using a rigorous definition of “very bright.” I have seen “very bright” defined as IQ of 160 or above. The U.S. has only 10,000 such people. (China has 300,000. As Steve would say, uh-oh.) The black share, ceteris paribus (a stretch), is 1,300. Many, of course, are teenagers. Many are physicists. Probably only a few are economists.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @SafeNow

    The U.S. has only 10,000 such people [above 160 IQ].

    It follows then that you don't need a lot of such people to run a society. Maybe a small handful to do cutting edge math and physics, but for most tasks, lesser mortals will suffice. I don't know what you can do with a IQ 160 cutoff because it's too high to fill even the most elite universities or professional schools, not even their faculties. Harvard alone has 2,400 on faculty. Maybe as a cutoff for a professorship at the Institute of Advanced Study.

    Not to mention that a lot of those 160 IQ people are otherwise not suited to run anything let alone a country. Maybe BECAUSE of their 160 IQ, which makes them feel like they are talking to retarded people all day every day, or maybe because IQ is not the main criteria for leadership.

    Replies: @Thomm

  41. Anonymous[355] • Disclaimer says:
    @Citizen of a Silly Country
    Not sure your point on all of this.

    Are you saying that she shouldn't be nominated? If so, why not come out and say it?

    Of course, she's not even remotely qualified to be appointed to this position compared to white and Asian economists. But, so what. We don't live in a colorblind meritocracy. Everyone knows that.

    She's nominated because she's one of the better black candidates. We live in a tribal society, and this is how multiracial societies work.

    Why are you continually surprised by a reality that has existed for decades.?

    Replies: @Greta Handel, @PhysicistDave, @Henry's Cat, @nokangaroos, @Art Deco, @Anonymous, @Colin Wright, @bigduke6, @ScarletNumber

    We live in a tribal society, and this is how multiracial societies work.

    Nope. This is how multiracial societies fail. I’ve spent some time in Federal bureaucracies, and most of the effort in such organizations is devoted to covering up for the utter incompetence of the workers. They have no effective chain of command or technical skills. Much of the effort and plotting is devoted to preventing any action that might need technical skills, usually by false reporting to management.

    “Political reality” doesn’t just dominate, it displaces.

    Many people get badly hurt or killed, as in the Iraq fiasco (no military government was ready after the conquest), the Afghanistan fiasco (same thing), the 2008 international financial panic, and now the Fauci Plague.

    Which gives you such horror shows as the Katrina relief efforts, or the Afghanistan rout, or the FBI/CIA collusion to neuter Trump, or (finally) the utter panic among today’s Democrats, their implausible propaganda, their reliance on brute and obvious force, and their reliance on election manipulation. Such is the mature form of any “tribal society” and any political machine. It’s why Western European countries have a complete reorganization about every four score and seven years, as Lincoln put it.

    • Thanks: PhysicistDave
    • Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country
    @Anonymous

    No, what causes multiracial societies to fail is being multiracial societies.

  42. … Brad DeLong? The Cheap Chalupas moron?

  43. Slightly off topic:

    The Hohmann Transfer Orbit….you don’t think Katherine Johnson came up with this crucial interplanetary space flight theory idea…now do you?

  44. This is why old religion is far superior to new religion.

    While it has its issues, the old religion can actually help people be better–sometimes much better–people and helps reinforce and maintain pro-social institutions and behavior the strengthen society.

    In contrast, the new religion nudges weak people into being liars, generates corruption, encourages terrible public policies and erodes longstanding traditions the support society.

    • Replies: @dearieme
    @AnotherDad

    But the old religion was a new religion once. Are you arguing that the early Christianity of James, Peter, and Paul nudged weak people into being liars, generated corruption, encouraged terrible public policies and eroded longstanding traditions the support society?

    Replies: @Sam Haysom, @PhysicistDave

  45. @AnotherDad
    This is why old religion is far superior to new religion.

    While it has its issues, the old religion can actually help people be better--sometimes much better--people and helps reinforce and maintain pro-social institutions and behavior the strengthen society.

    In contrast, the new religion nudges weak people into being liars, generates corruption, encourages terrible public policies and erodes longstanding traditions the support society.

    Replies: @dearieme

    But the old religion was a new religion once. Are you arguing that the early Christianity of James, Peter, and Paul nudged weak people into being liars, generated corruption, encouraged terrible public policies and eroded longstanding traditions the support society?

    • Replies: @Sam Haysom
    @dearieme

    Did he say oldest? Your lower order free thinker fogeyism might be the only ideology cringer than woke ideology. It’s just pure disaffected narcissism and ill breeding.

    , @PhysicistDave
    @dearieme

    dearieme asked AnotherDad:


    Are you arguing that the early Christianity of James, Peter, and Paul nudged weak people into being liars, generated corruption, encouraged terrible public policies and eroded longstanding traditions the support society?
     
    That was certainly the Roman perception (not to mention Edward Gibbon's)!

    The apostle Paul was in fact convinced that he had been taken up into the "third heaven," and he had a tendency to hear voices of his "risen Lord." And he mentions as normal behavior in the early Christian churches of "speaking in tongues" and, even weirder, other people who interpreted the speaking in tongues to decipher what they really meant.

    Most modern Christians would find the members of the early church to be not at all their kind of people.

    AnotherDad is right, though, that religions -- whether mainline Christianity, Mormonism, Scientology, or whatever -- tend to round off their rough edges over time and become just quaintly charming residues of an earlier age.

    To be sure, being a scientist, I myself have a tendency to be the kid shouting out "But the emperor is naked!" Which perhaps makes me not the ideal guest to invite to a dinner party.

    Replies: @dearieme

  46. Fixating on this data error is missing the forest for the trees. It doesn’t matter as much as the fact that this topic is the general area of her most famous paper. The job she is being nominated for is very important and totally unrelated to her past academic interests. She needs to have a deep understanding of monetary policy, which she shows no sign of having or even having interest in.

  47. My take is that the Fed is about to be demolished in the collapse of the US Dollar economy, and what better timing to have a non-Jewish POC in charge.

  48. @Space Ghost
    Great, you mentioned his name. Now it's only a matter of time before DeLong shows up here and engages in his usual buffoonery. The guy is a complete tool who has never made an honest good faith argument in his life.

    Replies: @Jim Don Bob

    The guy is a complete tool who has never made an honest good faith argument in his life.

    Au contraire, my friend. DeLong made this excellent assessment of HRC back in 2003 which Steve wrote about here: https://www.unz.com/isteve/ex-clinton-staffer-brad-delongs-post-on-hillarys-management-skills/. For some unknown reason, the link to the page on his website no longer works.

    June 07, 2003

    TIME TO POUND MY HEAD AGAINST THE WALL ONCE AGAIN

    … My two cents’ worth–and I think it is the two cents’ worth of everybody who worked for the Clinton Administration health care reform effort of 1993-1994–is that Hillary Rodham Clinton needs to be kept very far away from the White House for the rest of her life. Heading up health-care reform was the only major administrative job she has ever tried to do. And she was a complete flop at it. She had neither the grasp of policy substance, the managerial skills, nor the political smarts to do the job she was then given. And she wasn’t smart enough to realize that she was in over her head and had to get out of the Health Care Czar role quickly.

    So when senior members of the economic team said that key senators like Daniel Patrick Moynihan would have this-and-that objection, she told them they were disloyal. When junior members of the economic team told her that the Congressional Budget Office would say such-and-such, she told them (wrongly) that her conversations with CBO head Robert Reischauer had already fixed that. When long-time senior hill staffers told her that she was making a dreadful mistake by fighting with rather than reaching out to John Breaux and Jim Cooper, she told them that they did not understand the wave of popular political support the bill would generate. And when substantive objections were raised to the plan by analysts calculating the moral hazard and adverse selection pressures it would put on the nation’s health-care system…

    Hillary Rodham Clinton has already flopped as a senior administrative official in the executive branch–the equivalent of an Undersecretary. Perhaps she will make a good senator. But there is no reason to think that she would be anything but an abysmal president.

    Posted by DeLong at June 7, 2003 10:15 PM | TrackBack

    • Replies: @res
    @Jim Don Bob

    When pages are disappeared I like to post an archive link.
    https://web.archive.org/web/20190428210251/http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/movable_type/2003_archives/001600.html

    The interesting thing about that one is the disappearing did not happen until 2019. I am surprised it lasted through the 2016 election. Even after Steve wrote about it in March, 2016.

    Note that it looks like the whole domain went way, not just that page.

    Replies: @Jim Don Bob

    , @Ben tillman
    @Jim Don Bob

    All right. Fair enough. He did do something worthwhile.

  49. He shepherded her through to doctorate. He swings too if her paper is the dunderheaded bumble it appears to be.

    • Agree: Hibernian
  50. @Greta Handel
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    He’s not “surprised.” Mr. Sailer’s a copium denmother for disaffected white guys. Punching up at its black lady prevents Noticing the Establishment’s COVID tyranny and warmongering.

    That academic or technical qualifications of the Fed’s BoG are relevant to its decisions is, of course, a joke.

    Replies: @PhysicistDave, @Bill Jones, @San Fernando Curt

    Mr. Sailer’s a copium denmother for disaffected white guys.

    Nice line. It’s always refreshing to see analysis fluffed with air so rarefied.

  51. @TyRade
    Taking one for the team, I skimmed the Cook paper from a link in the DeLong apologia. Table 6 is patently troubling for her thesis. Riots - included in her full equation modelling patents - were much higher in the 1900s than the 1890s. The dummy variable for the 1900 break was found to hold for white patents too! And the fit of the equation for black patents, R2 of 0.283; ie 72% unexplained, would not impress a primary school teacher of statistics. And at the outset she baldly states "Race is not recorded in patent records". Yes, her English is that limited. But more importantly, there is no pause for humility - that her edifice of 'violence deterred black inventiveness' really can't be put to the sort of rigorous data test which that sort of inflammatory claim would require. Instead she jumps down the rabbit hole of more obscure data and proxies, willy nilly.

    Replies: @Hypnotoad666

    It’s a double-whammy of stupidity and dishonesty. First, she used obviously bad data to rig a fake “inflection” point on a graph. Then she just assumes the fake inflection is caused by whatever fake cause she wants it to be (White Supremacy, natch).

    This what the left means by “socially constructing” reality. Whenever the NYT says “scholars have found . . .” or “experts have shown . . .,” it is this kind of fake scholarship they are referring to.

  52. @Johann Ricke
    Not quite a man-bites-dog story, but still:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/20/carl-icahn-launches-proxy-fight-with-mcdonalds-over-treatment-of-pigs.html

    Replies: @Muggles

    Pig bites man?

    Pig bites Icahn?

    Icahn bites pig, but only if pig has nice life before being slaughtered?

    Wall St. pig fights for actual pigs?

    Big pig champions small pigs?

    Pigs demand Carl Icahn be slaughtered too.

    Vegans demand Icahn stop eating pigs regardless.

    MacDonald’s to Icahn and pigs, the McRib is here to stay…

    • LOL: Johann Ricke
    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Muggles


    Icahn has nominated Leslie Samuelrich and Maisie Ganzler for election at the company’s 2022 annual shareholder meeting [on the "No Chazerai"* platform].
     
    *Porky stuff

    It's funny because one of the things that has made McDonalds so acceptable worldwide is that the menu is NOT pork heavy. (Of course in India they don't have any beef on the menu either). I was over in Italy when they were concerned about mad cow disease and the fast food chains were pushing pork burgers or something and it was jarring because you don't associate American fast food with pork most of the time. I think some of the Asian McDo's also feature pork burgers.
    , @Escher
    @Muggles

    Ironic that a Jewish man is pushing for changes to the pork supply chain.

    Replies: @EdwardM, @Brutusale, @J.Ross

  53. @Citizen of a Silly Country
    Not sure your point on all of this.

    Are you saying that she shouldn't be nominated? If so, why not come out and say it?

    Of course, she's not even remotely qualified to be appointed to this position compared to white and Asian economists. But, so what. We don't live in a colorblind meritocracy. Everyone knows that.

    She's nominated because she's one of the better black candidates. We live in a tribal society, and this is how multiracial societies work.

    Why are you continually surprised by a reality that has existed for decades.?

    Replies: @Greta Handel, @PhysicistDave, @Henry's Cat, @nokangaroos, @Art Deco, @Anonymous, @Colin Wright, @bigduke6, @ScarletNumber

    ‘She’s nominated because she’s one of the better black candidates. We live in a tribal society, and this is how multiracial societies work.’

    How would we know how multi-racial societies would work — at least, egalitarian ones?

    None ever has — and at the moment, we’re demonstrating that we won’t be the first.

    Why don’t you go test the world’s first concrete parachute? It’s at least as reasonable a proposition.

    • Replies: @Cato
    @Colin Wright


    How would we know how multi-racial societies would work — at least, egalitarian ones? None ever has — and at the moment, we’re demonstrating that we won’t be the first.
     
    If we think of multi-ethnic rather than multi-racial, there are some successful countries: Singapore and Switzerland perhaps the most conspicuous. In the former case, a relatively authoritarian government; in the latter case, geographical separation and very high levels of regional autonomy. In our country, the left seems to be pushing toward the Singapore model, and the right (at least many of the rightists commenting here) seems to be pushing toward separatism.

    Replies: @kaganovitch, @Peter Lund, @Colin Wright

  54. @Bill Jones
    @Greta Handel

    Sailer's is the go-to place for civic nationalism and credentialist subservience.

    Despite all the evidence in every country in the West almost no-one accepts that Pol Pot was right.

    Replies: @Muggles, @Sam Haysom

    Despite all the evidence in every country in the West almost no-one accepts that Pol Pot was right.

    What? That Cambodia was dangerously overpopulated before he came along?

    • Replies: @bigduke6
    @Muggles

    Dangerously overpopulated with journalists and people who wear glasses, yes

  55. @Hibernian
    @Altai


    Economists haven’t covered themselves in glory over the last 50 years.
     
    Or even reached a conclusion.

    Replies: @Altai

    It’s what separates it from a real science. Economics is just guru-ism.

    Partly this is because people pushing agendas will always use ‘good for the economy’ as if there is some definable policy that is a: Good for everyone and b: Produces the same outcome over time.

    It’s perfectly possible to have a science of economics but it requires one to be honest about the consequences of economic policy on particular people and society and if neoliberals were honest about their paradigm they’d be in big trouble in a democracy.

    It makes my head hurt when I hear the same people complain about poor Mexican immigrants coming to the US working for such low wages and immigration restrictions.

    That poor Mexican immigrants get exploited economically in the US is the whole point! Imagine what the attitude from the elite would be if poor immigrants actually raised wages and reduced inequality? (IE the relative power and influence of the rich) They’d be calling for soldiers to gun them down at the border to protect the sacred motherland.

    Economic policy for what? Economic policy for whom?

    • Thanks: AnotherDad
  56. @additionalMike
    @Anon

    The rivals of the Hell's Angels, still around, since 1965?
    Hunter Thompson would appreciate this.

    Replies: @Malcolm X-Lax

    They need to hire a new PR brother because I’d never heard of them before.

  57. @Muggles
    @Johann Ricke

    Pig bites man?

    Pig bites Icahn?

    Icahn bites pig, but only if pig has nice life before being slaughtered?

    Wall St. pig fights for actual pigs?

    Big pig champions small pigs?

    Pigs demand Carl Icahn be slaughtered too.

    Vegans demand Icahn stop eating pigs regardless.

    MacDonald's to Icahn and pigs, the McRib is here to stay...

    Replies: @Jack D, @Escher

    Icahn has nominated Leslie Samuelrich and Maisie Ganzler for election at the company’s 2022 annual shareholder meeting [on the “No Chazerai”* platform].

    *Porky stuff

    It’s funny because one of the things that has made McDonalds so acceptable worldwide is that the menu is NOT pork heavy. (Of course in India they don’t have any beef on the menu either). I was over in Italy when they were concerned about mad cow disease and the fast food chains were pushing pork burgers or something and it was jarring because you don’t associate American fast food with pork most of the time. I think some of the Asian McDo’s also feature pork burgers.

  58. @SafeNow
    @PhysicistDave


    it is a statistical certainty that there are quite a few very bright Blacks
     
    Good point. But because the very economic fate and therefore the societal fate of the country is at stake, I will suggest using a rigorous definition of “very bright.” I have seen “very bright” defined as IQ of 160 or above. The U.S. has only 10,000 such people. (China has 300,000. As Steve would say, uh-oh.) The black share, ceteris paribus (a stretch), is 1,300. Many, of course, are teenagers. Many are physicists. Probably only a few are economists.

    Replies: @Jack D

    The U.S. has only 10,000 such people [above 160 IQ].

    It follows then that you don’t need a lot of such people to run a society. Maybe a small handful to do cutting edge math and physics, but for most tasks, lesser mortals will suffice. I don’t know what you can do with a IQ 160 cutoff because it’s too high to fill even the most elite universities or professional schools, not even their faculties. Harvard alone has 2,400 on faculty. Maybe as a cutoff for a professorship at the Institute of Advanced Study.

    Not to mention that a lot of those 160 IQ people are otherwise not suited to run anything let alone a country. Maybe BECAUSE of their 160 IQ, which makes them feel like they are talking to retarded people all day every day, or maybe because IQ is not the main criteria for leadership.

    • Replies: @Thomm
    @Jack D


    The U.S. has only 10,000 such people [above 160 IQ].
     
    Then Ron Unz, who claims an IQ of 214, might very well be the highest-IQ man in the United States!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d6b5cfe0fc6d104c6636614d97e075b7e6375ec65a7aaddb969316e6c815465e.jpg?w=800&h=529
  59. @Citizen of a Silly Country
    Not sure your point on all of this.

    Are you saying that she shouldn't be nominated? If so, why not come out and say it?

    Of course, she's not even remotely qualified to be appointed to this position compared to white and Asian economists. But, so what. We don't live in a colorblind meritocracy. Everyone knows that.

    She's nominated because she's one of the better black candidates. We live in a tribal society, and this is how multiracial societies work.

    Why are you continually surprised by a reality that has existed for decades.?

    Replies: @Greta Handel, @PhysicistDave, @Henry's Cat, @nokangaroos, @Art Deco, @Anonymous, @Colin Wright, @bigduke6, @ScarletNumber

    Cook is an ethnonarcissist fraud and the establishment is deathly afraid of pointing out obvious black incompetence. How slow are you if you can’t grasp those points?

  60. @Muggles
    @Bill Jones


    Despite all the evidence in every country in the West almost no-one accepts that Pol Pot was right.
     
    What? That Cambodia was dangerously overpopulated before he came along?

    Replies: @bigduke6

    Dangerously overpopulated with journalists and people who wear glasses, yes

  61. @PhysicistDave
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Citizen of a Silly Country wrote:


    She’s nominated because she’s one of the better black candidates.
     
    Oh, c'mon.

    Given the roughly one sigma difference in average Black and White IQs, and given the number of Blacks in this country, it is a statistical certainty that there are quite a few very bright Blacks. Any well-read person can name some of them.

    Lisa Cook just happens not to be one of them.

    Replies: @Bill Jones, @SafeNow, @puttheforkdown, @Citizen of a Silly Country

    > it is a statistical certainty that there are quite a few very bright Blacks.

    There isn’t a single person of African descent in the chess top 100. A black person has never cracked the 2600 ELO rating.

    People make chess sets in prison. What’s the hold up here? Maurice Ashley is the best black player ever and came nowhere close. He peaked in the measly low 2500s.

    A cursory look at normal distributions, Z scores, SDs and bell curves don’t tell the entire story here.

  62. @Citizen of a Silly Country
    Not sure your point on all of this.

    Are you saying that she shouldn't be nominated? If so, why not come out and say it?

    Of course, she's not even remotely qualified to be appointed to this position compared to white and Asian economists. But, so what. We don't live in a colorblind meritocracy. Everyone knows that.

    She's nominated because she's one of the better black candidates. We live in a tribal society, and this is how multiracial societies work.

    Why are you continually surprised by a reality that has existed for decades.?

    Replies: @Greta Handel, @PhysicistDave, @Henry's Cat, @nokangaroos, @Art Deco, @Anonymous, @Colin Wright, @bigduke6, @ScarletNumber

    Are you saying that she shouldn’t be nominated? If so, why not come out and say it?

    Because Steve’s a coward

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @ScarletNumber

    A polemicist tells you what to think.

    A persuader (Steve) lays out all the facts and lets you draw the inevitable conclusions. It's better that way.

    Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country, @Reg Cæsar, @Sam Haysom

    , @Mike Tre
    @ScarletNumber

    Steve is a lot of things, but a coward is not one of them. He promotes fairly heretical viewpoints using his true name; viewpoints that could get anitfa/BLM knocking at his door one night.

    What's your real name and the town you currently reside in?

    , @Citizen of a Silly Country
    @ScarletNumber

    Steve's not a coward. Steve has stuck to his guns and told the truth for 20+ years at great cost to his career.

    No, not a coward.

    That said, Steve doesn't like the obvious conclusions of his work. He used to proscribe solutions - the Sailer Strategy or Citizenism - but he avoids that now. To be honest, I don't know what he's trying to achieve anymore. I don't think that he does either. He likes looking into these things and being the clever guy who points out who the system is wrong, as though no one can see the same thing. But he won't take that next step.

    Why?

    I don't know, but I don't think that it's conventional cowardice. Steve's motivations for keeping his head in the sand seems personal. Regardless, I'm fine with Steve doing what he does. I just post to push readers to move past Steve's intellectual dead-end. I'd say that Steve is just running out the clock, but I suspect that there's more to it. Then again, Murray acts the same way, and there's no deep, dark secret to his motivations. He's just an elitist. Maybe, that's Steve as well.

    Replies: @James B. Shearer

  63. @Bill Jones
    @Greta Handel

    Sailer's is the go-to place for civic nationalism and credentialist subservience.

    Despite all the evidence in every country in the West almost no-one accepts that Pol Pot was right.

    Replies: @Muggles, @Sam Haysom

    Which has always been kind of cringe because his credentials have always been just above average especially for the era he grew up in.

    • Replies: @kaganovitch
    @Sam Haysom

    Which has always been kind of cringe because his credentials have always been just above average especially for the era he grew up in.

    I think well below average. According to Wiki, he couldn't even make the cut for the Lycee Sisowath upper classes and he had to enroll in carpentry school.

  64. @dearieme
    @AnotherDad

    But the old religion was a new religion once. Are you arguing that the early Christianity of James, Peter, and Paul nudged weak people into being liars, generated corruption, encouraged terrible public policies and eroded longstanding traditions the support society?

    Replies: @Sam Haysom, @PhysicistDave

    Did he say oldest? Your lower order free thinker fogeyism might be the only ideology cringer than woke ideology. It’s just pure disaffected narcissism and ill breeding.

  65. “Brad DeLong: Yeah, OK, I Guess My Old Student, Fed Nominee Lisa Cook, Did Screw Up Her Patent Paper … But Not Fatally!”

    Should be:

    Brad DeLong: Yeah, OK, I Guess My Old Student, Fed Nominee Lisa Cook, Did Screw Up Her Patent Paper … But She’s Still Black And Female So She’s Still Qualified! Actually Her Screw-up Makes Her Even More Black So She’s Even More Qualified!

  66. @ScarletNumber
    @Citizen of a Silly Country


    Are you saying that she shouldn’t be nominated? If so, why not come out and say it?
     
    Because Steve's a coward

    Replies: @Jack D, @Mike Tre, @Citizen of a Silly Country

    A polemicist tells you what to think.

    A persuader (Steve) lays out all the facts and lets you draw the inevitable conclusions. It’s better that way.

    • Thanks: John Milton’s Ghost
    • Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country
    @Jack D

    Which is why Steve kept the "Sailer Strategy" and Citizenism to himself.

    Nice try.

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @Jack D

    Now watch Miss Scarlet label you a Troll.

    Replies: @I, Libertine

    , @Sam Haysom
    @Jack D

    Steve is polemicist when he really cares. For instance when he aggressively promoted full scale lockdowns or when truculently opposing YIMBY rules (to give an example on which I agree).

    So your premise is cheesy to begin with. never mind that stylistically you are about as far from the persuader style as possible. Revealed preference a favored term of you and the cast of midwits.

  67. @AndrewR
    @HammerJack

    This reminds me of the old adage: you can't con an honest man. Why would a 78 year old think that a 30 year old would be romantically interested in him? Dementia, perhaps? I am finding it hard to be entirely sympathetic.

    Replies: @Barnard, @Hibernian, @HammerJack

    Also, why would he think a 30 year old woman who repeatedly gets arrested would make a good romantic interest for him? The full article says he does have dementia and used to be a fraud investigator.

  68. @ScarletNumber
    @Citizen of a Silly Country


    Are you saying that she shouldn’t be nominated? If so, why not come out and say it?
     
    Because Steve's a coward

    Replies: @Jack D, @Mike Tre, @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Steve is a lot of things, but a coward is not one of them. He promotes fairly heretical viewpoints using his true name; viewpoints that could get anitfa/BLM knocking at his door one night.

    What’s your real name and the town you currently reside in?

    • Agree: Sam Malone
  69. @AndrewR
    @HammerJack

    This reminds me of the old adage: you can't con an honest man. Why would a 78 year old think that a 30 year old would be romantically interested in him? Dementia, perhaps? I am finding it hard to be entirely sympathetic.

    Replies: @Barnard, @Hibernian, @HammerJack

    \$600,000.00 from a 78 year old man? I think we can all agree that a 30 year old woman is a grown woman.

  70. Juwan Howard defends self against aggressive white men

    Nice try, Mr. Tiny Duck.

    The first physical contact was by Juwan Howard, albeit a very minor type of such contact, a finger in the chest. The hand lightly on the elbow, to which he objected, was in the same category. Mr. Howard assaulted a third party, who happened to be a Wisconsin assistant. I seem to remember that Wisconsin basketball is regarded as “too white” in some quarters, or at least was.

    Mr. Howard was upset by the entirely legal gamesmanship of Wisconsin, in a close game. Sort of like Aaron Rodgers and other QBs trying to lure defensive linemen offside. If Michigan doesn’t like it, lobby to change the rules.

    • Replies: @Hibernian
    @Hibernian

    Correction: The game was not close, however, Wisconsin had taken its starters out and Michigan had left his starters in. Also, not sure about the sequence of the initial light contacts, but they were close in time and very light.

    Replies: @Danindc

  71. @Hibernian

    Juwan Howard defends self against aggressive white men
     
    Nice try, Mr. Tiny Duck.

    The first physical contact was by Juwan Howard, albeit a very minor type of such contact, a finger in the chest. The hand lightly on the elbow, to which he objected, was in the same category. Mr. Howard assaulted a third party, who happened to be a Wisconsin assistant. I seem to remember that Wisconsin basketball is regarded as "too white" in some quarters, or at least was.

    Mr. Howard was upset by the entirely legal gamesmanship of Wisconsin, in a close game. Sort of like Aaron Rodgers and other QBs trying to lure defensive linemen offside. If Michigan doesn't like it, lobby to change the rules.

    Replies: @Hibernian

    Correction: The game was not close, however, Wisconsin had taken its starters out and Michigan had left his starters in. Also, not sure about the sequence of the initial light contacts, but they were close in time and very light.

    • Replies: @Danindc
    @Hibernian

    Juwan Howard has always been a miserable prick.

  72. @Ebony Obelisk
    1. Economy roaring back

    2. Trucker Canadian protestors getting the J6 treatment

    3. Russia about to get its butt kicked by the diverse American military

    4. Conservatives being held accountable

    5. Bank accounts being frozen

    6. Juwan Howard defends self against aggressive white men

    7. Demographic change continues

    8. All journalists dislike rubes

    9. All academics dislike rubes

    10. Men of Children Color impregnating white girls


    Dang it feels good being progressive!

    Replies: @tyrone, @kaganovitch, @The Germ Theory of Disease

    Just don’t go pushing any body in front of a subway train……remember to take your meds…..see, we care here in the Steve-o-sphere.

  73. Is this the “data person” Brad who devastatingly rebutted the possibility that different races could have, on average, different genetic endowments for intelligence by showing that, over a sufficient number of millennia, racial inter-breeding would eliminate these differences?

  74. Here’s something for you if you want to hear Brad DeLong (along with the infamous(?)Andrei Shliefer) reminiscing about his youth:

    Crimson Connections: Andrei Shleifer ’82 and J. Bradford DeLong ’82

    https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2021/4/16/shleifer-delong-ccvideo/

  75. OT Remember how the identifying cry of the Russophobic ignoramus was that Vladimir Putin called the fall of the Soviet Union a catastrophe? Remember every mainstream source insisting that Putin wants to restore the Soviet Union?

    “modern ukraine was completely and utterly created by the bolsheviks. this process began immediately after the revolution of 1917. lenin and his comrades did this in a manner which was very rough on russia proper, by cutting off a historical part of its territory.”
    he’s elaborating on stalin & khruschev cutting off parts of russia, creating “soviet ukraine”.
    putin elaborating on the bolsheviks compromising with ukrainian nationalists to create the chimera of “ukraine”. nothing you haven’t heard on our episode on ukrainian history!
    “why did the communists make such generous presents to the minority nationalists? this makes no sense, it is insane. but there is an explanation: after the revolution, the main goal of the bolsheviks was to stay in power by any means necessary.”
    “the leninist principles of nation-building weren’t just a mistake, they were ‘worse than a mistake’. this became extremely obvious in 1991.”
    “we cannot change the past, but we have to speak about it openly and honestly.”
    “ukraine was completely built and created by lenin. he was its architect, including his orders on including donbass in the ukrainian soviet republic by force.”
    “now the ukrainians destroy lenin monuments and want decommunization. you want decommunization? we can show you what REAL DECOMMUNIZATION means in ukraine.”

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1495819596422688779.html

  76. Now for some good news.

  77. There are only two Brad Delong trivia which interest me.

    1. Did his begging of Podesta for a job for his boy succeed?

    2. Did he write anything relevant to the Air B N B Orinda Hollywood massacre which happened one hill over from his residence in Lafayette?

    What he has to say on the topics of Economics and Finance is about as significant as what Krugman has to say, who is perhaps his closest comparison. As close as Berkeley gets to New York anyway.

  78. @AndrewR
    @HammerJack

    This reminds me of the old adage: you can't con an honest man. Why would a 78 year old think that a 30 year old would be romantically interested in him? Dementia, perhaps? I am finding it hard to be entirely sympathetic.

    Replies: @Barnard, @Hibernian, @HammerJack

    Dementia, perhaps?

    Well yes, the article states that the man is suffering from dementia. There will be more and more of these stories, I expect.

    A close friend’s father (another case) was taken for everything he was worth, in a non-romantic scenario. Something like an investment scheme.

    • Replies: @AndrewR
    @HammerJack

    Well, thus is the value of keeping your beloved loved and near.

    If you only talk to your dad a few times a month and/or he doesn't trust you, then it may not be hard for a stranger to con him.


    Hajnal line, and all that.

    Right now I'm helping to take care of my increasingly demented father and it's anything but easy. But I'm pretty certain (and grateful) that the help we do have aren't bright enough to really scam him. Plus my sociopath sister stays on his finances like a hawk because she wants her cut when he dies. So really all I have to worry about is her....

    Replies: @HammerJack, @Reg Cæsar

  79. @PhysicistDave
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Citizen of a Silly Country wrote:


    She’s nominated because she’s one of the better black candidates.
     
    Oh, c'mon.

    Given the roughly one sigma difference in average Black and White IQs, and given the number of Blacks in this country, it is a statistical certainty that there are quite a few very bright Blacks. Any well-read person can name some of them.

    Lisa Cook just happens not to be one of them.

    Replies: @Bill Jones, @SafeNow, @puttheforkdown, @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Hmm. Interesting that you avoided my point that there are better qualified white and Asian economists.

    Regardless, I’m gkad to see that you’ve accepted that in a multiracial society, important positions should be doled out on a racial basis.

    I know that it took a lot for you to give up your colorblind meritocracy fantasy. I’m proud of you Dave.

    • Replies: @PhysicistDave
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Citizen of a Silly Country wrote to me:


    Regardless, I’m gkad to see that you’ve accepted that in a multiracial society, important positions should be doled out on a racial basis.

    I know that it took a lot for you to give up your colorblind meritocracy fantasy. I’m proud of you Dave.
     

    Nope, I still do not agree that positions should be handed out based on race.

    I merely pointed out the simple fact -- there are certainly lots of Black folks smarter than Lisa Cook.

    I made no policy recommendation based on that simple fact.

    For the record, I support abolishing the Fed. The US currency was much more stable before 1913 than since.

    Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country

  80. @Art Deco
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    She’s nominated because she’s one of the better black candidates.

    No, she was nominated because she was a well-connected black candidate. You fancy the dame they wanted to install as Comptroller of the Currency was 'one of the better candidates'?

    Replies: @Inquiring Mind, @Citizen of a Silly Country

    True, but my point still stands. Hee appointment was based on race and that’s how things work in a multiracial society; indeed, that’s how things should work in a multiracial society.

    That’s reality. This colorblind meritocracy fantasy held by so many around here isn’t.

  81. @Jack D
    @ScarletNumber

    A polemicist tells you what to think.

    A persuader (Steve) lays out all the facts and lets you draw the inevitable conclusions. It's better that way.

    Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country, @Reg Cæsar, @Sam Haysom

    Which is why Steve kept the “Sailer Strategy” and Citizenism to himself.

    Nice try.

  82. @Jack D
    @ScarletNumber

    A polemicist tells you what to think.

    A persuader (Steve) lays out all the facts and lets you draw the inevitable conclusions. It's better that way.

    Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country, @Reg Cæsar, @Sam Haysom

    Now watch Miss Scarlet label you a Troll.

    • Replies: @I, Libertine
    @Reg Cæsar

    I thought he did that only to me.

  83. @ScarletNumber
    @Citizen of a Silly Country


    Are you saying that she shouldn’t be nominated? If so, why not come out and say it?
     
    Because Steve's a coward

    Replies: @Jack D, @Mike Tre, @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Steve’s not a coward. Steve has stuck to his guns and told the truth for 20+ years at great cost to his career.

    No, not a coward.

    That said, Steve doesn’t like the obvious conclusions of his work. He used to proscribe solutions – the Sailer Strategy or Citizenism – but he avoids that now. To be honest, I don’t know what he’s trying to achieve anymore. I don’t think that he does either. He likes looking into these things and being the clever guy who points out who the system is wrong, as though no one can see the same thing. But he won’t take that next step.

    Why?

    I don’t know, but I don’t think that it’s conventional cowardice. Steve’s motivations for keeping his head in the sand seems personal. Regardless, I’m fine with Steve doing what he does. I just post to push readers to move past Steve’s intellectual dead-end. I’d say that Steve is just running out the clock, but I suspect that there’s more to it. Then again, Murray acts the same way, and there’s no deep, dark secret to his motivations. He’s just an elitist. Maybe, that’s Steve as well.

    • Thanks: ScarletNumber
    • Replies: @James B. Shearer
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    "... To be honest, I don’t know what he’s trying to achieve anymore. I don’t think that he does either. .."

    I expect trying to earn a living is in there somewhere.

  84. OT, but I recommend to everyone the Wikipedia articles on the history of the Russia-Ukraine border and the history of the Donbass, at least until the Deep State edits the articles.

    The bottom line: on two points Putin is basically correct —

    The border was arbitrarily created by the Communists.

    Donetsk and Lugansk are basically Russian-speaking areas.

    A decade ago, I was friendly with a woman, a mom of one the girls in my daughter’s dance class, who was a recent immigrant from Ukraine.

    She said that she had recently gone back to visit family and was, of course, speaking to them in Ukrainian. Except they asked her why she was speaking Russian. She replied that she was speaking Ukrainian as the family had always done. They replied that, no, this word and that word were no longer Ukrainian words but Russian words.

    I.e., there was a systematic, and rather silly, effort at de-Russification.

    It is pretty easy to see why this did not play well in the Russophone Donbass.

    And now the liberation of the Donbass has begun.

    My bet: Putin will stop with the Donbass if Kiev and the West agree.

    But if Kiev and the West insist on drawing this out… well, I hear the Russians have always been fond of Odessa!

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @PhysicistDave

    Putin would also be correct if he pointed out that Alaska was a Russian speaking territory until 1867.

    South Tirol is a German speaking part of Italy . Is it ok if Austria invades?

    Kaliningrad was German for 1,000 years before 1945. Will Russia give it back to Germany? What about the parts of Finland that it grabbed?

    America was an English colony until it wasn't. In fact we STILL speak English (mostly). Should the UK get the US back on that basis?

    There are all kinds of interesting points like this, so if you cherry pick and rewind the clock to arbitrary dates you could shift all sorts of borders around. Some of these shifts would favor Russia, others wouldn't. The basic deal in Europe since 1945 is that you aren't supposed to change borders by military force regardless of ancient history. Once you start doing that, who knows where it end, especially in the Nuclear Age.

    Replies: @PhysicistDave, @Professional Slav

  85. Who cares about this bullshit? Isn’t to show this Cook is a lout? Well I’m all for that!

  86. anonymous[251] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anon
    OT: Remember that Antifa shooting in Portland a couple days ago? Well, it turns out Antifa tried to pick a fight with a Gypsy Joker biker gang member. I thought that was absolutely nuts when I read about it, but there is indeed a video with an Antifa spokes-its ranting about the Gypsy Jokers and how the Portland cops failed to protect them against the Gypsy Jokers.

    Here's a news link:
    Https://archive.org/details/unreliablememoir00jame

    This fits the psychology of people who are constantly protesting. What they want is to provoke a reaction. If they don't get a reaction, they go looking around for people who will give them the reaction. Antifa trying to escalate things by picking a fight with a biker gang fits a pattern of psychologically disturbed individuals whose primary motivator is getting attention.

    Replies: @additionalMike, @anonymous

    I can’t for the life of me understand why Trump supporters didn’t recruit White biker clubs to contest the streets with Antifa in 2020.

    The only group that apparently tried to contest the streets were “The Proud Boys”.

    The NRA Guns, Guns, Guns types were AWOL as usual. Where military veterans VFW.

    America needs organic versions of the Cossacks – there is even a biker club with that name.

    JR
    The Political Cesspool

    • Replies: @Veteran Aryan
    @anonymous


    I can’t for the life of me understand why Trump supporters didn’t recruit White biker clubs to contest the streets with Antifa in 2020.
     
    Because the streets in question are in heavily liberal areas. It's always a mistake to let your enemy choose the battleground.
  87. @dearieme
    @AnotherDad

    But the old religion was a new religion once. Are you arguing that the early Christianity of James, Peter, and Paul nudged weak people into being liars, generated corruption, encouraged terrible public policies and eroded longstanding traditions the support society?

    Replies: @Sam Haysom, @PhysicistDave

    dearieme asked AnotherDad:

    Are you arguing that the early Christianity of James, Peter, and Paul nudged weak people into being liars, generated corruption, encouraged terrible public policies and eroded longstanding traditions the support society?

    That was certainly the Roman perception (not to mention Edward Gibbon’s)!

    The apostle Paul was in fact convinced that he had been taken up into the “third heaven,” and he had a tendency to hear voices of his “risen Lord.” And he mentions as normal behavior in the early Christian churches of “speaking in tongues” and, even weirder, other people who interpreted the speaking in tongues to decipher what they really meant.

    Most modern Christians would find the members of the early church to be not at all their kind of people.

    AnotherDad is right, though, that religions — whether mainline Christianity, Mormonism, Scientology, or whatever — tend to round off their rough edges over time and become just quaintly charming residues of an earlier age.

    To be sure, being a scientist, I myself have a tendency to be the kid shouting out “But the emperor is naked!” Which perhaps makes me not the ideal guest to invite to a dinner party.

    • Replies: @dearieme
    @PhysicistDave

    religions ... tend to round off their rough edges over time and become just quaintly charming residues of an earlier age

    That's not an account of the Roman Catholic Church of the Medieval, Renaissance, and Reformation periods that I recognise.

    Replies: @Hibernian, @PhysicistDave

  88. @Jack D
    @ScarletNumber

    A polemicist tells you what to think.

    A persuader (Steve) lays out all the facts and lets you draw the inevitable conclusions. It's better that way.

    Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country, @Reg Cæsar, @Sam Haysom

    Steve is polemicist when he really cares. For instance when he aggressively promoted full scale lockdowns or when truculently opposing YIMBY rules (to give an example on which I agree).

    So your premise is cheesy to begin with. never mind that stylistically you are about as far from the persuader style as possible. Revealed preference a favored term of you and the cast of midwits.

  89. @Twinkie
    @ic1000

    We never went to the moon.

    https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-h5Lo1c1LPR8/UFaar2HJcWI/AAAAAAAAS1o/nOSmAGOwwK4/s1600/Speilberg-Director-of-Moon-Landing-Hoax--59751.jpg

    Replies: @Ben tillman

    Alan Funt. Ha ha.

  90. @Calvin Hobbes
    From DeLong’s substack:

    You know, if someone were brought to you, and you were told that they had been deputy team lead for financial regulation and such issues during a presidential transition, had been the point staff economist for the White House on the Eurozone dimension of the 2008 to 2012 financial crisis, had been a special advisor to the secretary of the treasury on finance and development, and had been a Hoover Institution National Fellow, your reaction would not have been “this is an unqualified person put forward to advance some sinister non-technocratic agenda”, let alone someone put forward because she strokes the “erogenous zones of progressives”.
     
    But it turns out that if the person with this impressive resume was a black woman, one’s suspicion should have been “this is an unqualified person put forward to advance some sinister non-technocratic agenda” and because she strokes the “erogenous zones of progressives”.

    Replies: @Ben tillman

    Of course. DeLong’s always been a stupid/dishonest anti-white racist.

  91. @Jack D
    @SafeNow

    The U.S. has only 10,000 such people [above 160 IQ].

    It follows then that you don't need a lot of such people to run a society. Maybe a small handful to do cutting edge math and physics, but for most tasks, lesser mortals will suffice. I don't know what you can do with a IQ 160 cutoff because it's too high to fill even the most elite universities or professional schools, not even their faculties. Harvard alone has 2,400 on faculty. Maybe as a cutoff for a professorship at the Institute of Advanced Study.

    Not to mention that a lot of those 160 IQ people are otherwise not suited to run anything let alone a country. Maybe BECAUSE of their 160 IQ, which makes them feel like they are talking to retarded people all day every day, or maybe because IQ is not the main criteria for leadership.

    Replies: @Thomm

    The U.S. has only 10,000 such people [above 160 IQ].

    Then Ron Unz, who claims an IQ of 214, might very well be the highest-IQ man in the United States!

  92. Anonymous[352] • Disclaimer says:

    Meanwhile, the Mayor of Ottawa is attempting to find “laws” to strip Canadian protesters of their means of income by selling off their private property that generates it.

    As an older guy, I’ve found that you can push people around or bullshit them, until you move to strip them of their livelihood. Then things can get very crazy, very quickly. It’s not something particular to Canadians. Everyone responds the same way when they are in a bitter conflict and realize they have literally nothing to lose. This is where the quality of grace is critically important. You can still be a superdouche with the asshole moves and the rhetoric but… don’t cry about what happens next.

    File Under: Fuck Around and Find Out

    • Replies: @PhysicistDave
    @Anonymous

    Anonymous[352] wrote:


    As an older guy, I’ve found that you can push people around or bullshit them, until you move to strip them of their livelihood. Then things can get very crazy, very quickly.
     
    Yeah.

    I wonder if the ruling Western elites are intentionally inciting civil war or if they are just too stupid to know what they are doing?

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Bardon Kaldian

    , @ThreeCranes
    @Anonymous

    "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness...."

    I'd been instructed that the phrase "pursuit of happiness" in the historical context of the Declaration had meant the right to make a living, to be left in peace to pursue a profession of one's choice. Clearly, seizing the accoutrements of protestor's means of livelihood is a violation of the "Laws of Nature and of Nature's God".

  93. @PhysicistDave
    OT, but I recommend to everyone the Wikipedia articles on the history of the Russia-Ukraine border and the history of the Donbass, at least until the Deep State edits the articles.

    The bottom line: on two points Putin is basically correct --


    The border was arbitrarily created by the Communists.

    Donetsk and Lugansk are basically Russian-speaking areas.
     

    A decade ago, I was friendly with a woman, a mom of one the girls in my daughter's dance class, who was a recent immigrant from Ukraine.

    She said that she had recently gone back to visit family and was, of course, speaking to them in Ukrainian. Except they asked her why she was speaking Russian. She replied that she was speaking Ukrainian as the family had always done. They replied that, no, this word and that word were no longer Ukrainian words but Russian words.

    I.e., there was a systematic, and rather silly, effort at de-Russification.

    It is pretty easy to see why this did not play well in the Russophone Donbass.

    And now the liberation of the Donbass has begun.

    My bet: Putin will stop with the Donbass if Kiev and the West agree.

    But if Kiev and the West insist on drawing this out... well, I hear the Russians have always been fond of Odessa!

    Replies: @Jack D

    Putin would also be correct if he pointed out that Alaska was a Russian speaking territory until 1867.

    South Tirol is a German speaking part of Italy . Is it ok if Austria invades?

    Kaliningrad was German for 1,000 years before 1945. Will Russia give it back to Germany? What about the parts of Finland that it grabbed?

    America was an English colony until it wasn’t. In fact we STILL speak English (mostly). Should the UK get the US back on that basis?

    There are all kinds of interesting points like this, so if you cherry pick and rewind the clock to arbitrary dates you could shift all sorts of borders around. Some of these shifts would favor Russia, others wouldn’t. The basic deal in Europe since 1945 is that you aren’t supposed to change borders by military force regardless of ancient history. Once you start doing that, who knows where it end, especially in the Nuclear Age.

    • Thanks: Hibernian, Wizard of Oz
    • Replies: @PhysicistDave
    @Jack D

    Jack D wrote to me:


    Putin would also be correct if he pointed out that Alaska was a Russian speaking territory until 1867.
     
    Except that the Donbass is Russian-speaking now.

    Like kinda a big difference, doncha think?

    The issue is simply popular sovereignty -- are people entitled to choose their government now?

    Anyone favoring anything that even approximates democracy has to support the liberation fo the Donbass.

    That Putin and Xi will thereby make the ruling Western elites look like ignorant impotent fools is merely a pleasant side benefit.

    We are seeing the beginning of a New World Order indeed, just not the one the Western oligarchs had planned on.

    I'm thinking I need to brush up on my high-school Russian, not to mention my rudimentary Mandarin.

    Replies: @Hibernian, @Wizard of Oz

    , @Professional Slav
    @Jack D

    If that was the agreement since 1945, then it's a bit odd Kosovo was supported and then recognized by the West.
    The 90s isn't really ancient history when it comes to Ukrainian/Russian borders. Your own logic dictates that Donbass and Lugansk were Ukranian, until they're not, a bit like the Golan Heights. Also, when people are given a choice between a corrupt shithole and a slightly less corrupt shithole, I'd wager most would choose the latter.
    I want America and my taxes out of there, regardless of what happens to those villages.

    Replies: @Jack D, @Art Deco

  94. @Ebony Obelisk
    1. Economy roaring back

    2. Trucker Canadian protestors getting the J6 treatment

    3. Russia about to get its butt kicked by the diverse American military

    4. Conservatives being held accountable

    5. Bank accounts being frozen

    6. Juwan Howard defends self against aggressive white men

    7. Demographic change continues

    8. All journalists dislike rubes

    9. All academics dislike rubes

    10. Men of Children Color impregnating white girls


    Dang it feels good being progressive!

    Replies: @tyrone, @kaganovitch, @The Germ Theory of Disease

    As the Good Book says “The king of Israel replied, “Tell him, ‘Let not one who puts on armor boast like one who takes it off.’”

  95. @Reg Cæsar
    @Jack D

    Now watch Miss Scarlet label you a Troll.

    Replies: @I, Libertine

    I thought he did that only to me.

  96. @Jack D
    @PhysicistDave

    Putin would also be correct if he pointed out that Alaska was a Russian speaking territory until 1867.

    South Tirol is a German speaking part of Italy . Is it ok if Austria invades?

    Kaliningrad was German for 1,000 years before 1945. Will Russia give it back to Germany? What about the parts of Finland that it grabbed?

    America was an English colony until it wasn't. In fact we STILL speak English (mostly). Should the UK get the US back on that basis?

    There are all kinds of interesting points like this, so if you cherry pick and rewind the clock to arbitrary dates you could shift all sorts of borders around. Some of these shifts would favor Russia, others wouldn't. The basic deal in Europe since 1945 is that you aren't supposed to change borders by military force regardless of ancient history. Once you start doing that, who knows where it end, especially in the Nuclear Age.

    Replies: @PhysicistDave, @Professional Slav

    Jack D wrote to me:

    Putin would also be correct if he pointed out that Alaska was a Russian speaking territory until 1867.

    Except that the Donbass is Russian-speaking now.

    Like kinda a big difference, doncha think?

    The issue is simply popular sovereignty — are people entitled to choose their government now?

    Anyone favoring anything that even approximates democracy has to support the liberation fo the Donbass.

    That Putin and Xi will thereby make the ruling Western elites look like ignorant impotent fools is merely a pleasant side benefit.

    We are seeing the beginning of a New World Order indeed, just not the one the Western oligarchs had planned on.

    I’m thinking I need to brush up on my high-school Russian, not to mention my rudimentary Mandarin.

    • Replies: @Hibernian
    @PhysicistDave

    Are you in favor of returning a few Texas counties along the Rio Grande to Mexico?

    Replies: @Brutusale, @PhysicistDave

    , @Wizard of Oz
    @PhysicistDave

    Too much is meant of Eastern Ukraine having more Russian speakers. Most Ukrainians are primrily Russian speakers including President Zelensky. It doesn't meant they wanted to become dominated by Russia. Would Swedish speaking Finns want Sweden to take over? And so on for many similar cases.

  97. @Hibernian
    @Hibernian

    Correction: The game was not close, however, Wisconsin had taken its starters out and Michigan had left his starters in. Also, not sure about the sequence of the initial light contacts, but they were close in time and very light.

    Replies: @Danindc

    Juwan Howard has always been a miserable prick.

  98. @Anonymous
    Meanwhile, the Mayor of Ottawa is attempting to find "laws" to strip Canadian protesters of their means of income by selling off their private property that generates it.

    As an older guy, I’ve found that you can push people around or bullshit them, until you move to strip them of their livelihood. Then things can get very crazy, very quickly. It’s not something particular to Canadians. Everyone responds the same way when they are in a bitter conflict and realize they have literally nothing to lose. This is where the quality of grace is critically important. You can still be a superdouche with the asshole moves and the rhetoric but… don’t cry about what happens next.

    File Under: Fuck Around and Find Out

    https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1495840068359106568?s=20&t=G_30kznofMhL68Q0hWqeqQ

    https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1495961814420664327?s=20&t=G_30kznofMhL68Q0hWqeqQ

    Replies: @PhysicistDave, @ThreeCranes

    Anonymous[352] wrote:

    As an older guy, I’ve found that you can push people around or bullshit them, until you move to strip them of their livelihood. Then things can get very crazy, very quickly.

    Yeah.

    I wonder if the ruling Western elites are intentionally inciting civil war or if they are just too stupid to know what they are doing?

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @PhysicistDave


    I wonder if the ruling Western elites are intentionally inciting civil war or if they are just too stupid to know what they are doing?
     
    That’s just asking the ancient question, "are they stupid, or just evil?"

    Whenever two viable polarities are established, the driving force usually balances itself somewhere between the two. Like a tightrope-walker. So maybe both are perversely necessary for the existence of that force.

    If one of the "poles" fails, the tightrope-walker falls.

    Evil needs stupidity to get things done. Stupidity needs evil to tell it what to do, and prevent self-destructing.

    And so it goes…

    https://twitter.com/Tylerjoelb/status/1495924574353072129?s=20&t=kBR6hEGVx_3NkhpnrGMWgw

    , @Bardon Kaldian
    @PhysicistDave

    Stupid.

  99. @Citizen of a Silly Country
    @PhysicistDave

    Hmm. Interesting that you avoided my point that there are better qualified white and Asian economists.

    Regardless, I'm gkad to see that you've accepted that in a multiracial society, important positions should be doled out on a racial basis.

    I know that it took a lot for you to give up your colorblind meritocracy fantasy. I'm proud of you Dave.

    Replies: @PhysicistDave

    Citizen of a Silly Country wrote to me:

    Regardless, I’m gkad to see that you’ve accepted that in a multiracial society, important positions should be doled out on a racial basis.

    I know that it took a lot for you to give up your colorblind meritocracy fantasy. I’m proud of you Dave.

    Nope, I still do not agree that positions should be handed out based on race.

    I merely pointed out the simple fact — there are certainly lots of Black folks smarter than Lisa Cook.

    I made no policy recommendation based on that simple fact.

    For the record, I support abolishing the Fed. The US currency was much more stable before 1913 than since.

    • Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country
    @PhysicistDave

    You may not agree, but that's what happens in multiracial societies. It's natural, and a scientist should respect nature.

    As to the fed, that's an area that I have some background. They're not always good at what they do, but they work with the tools that they have. I actually feel a bit bad for them.

    Credit has to expand or the whole system will collapse, but we've reached a point where each new dollar is adding less and less to gdp growth, i.e. you need to keep upping the amount of debt just to maintain your current level of growth.

    Unfortunately, as you add debt relative to gdp you both lower how much each dollar of debt adds to gdp and you make the system more and more unstable. The good news is that it'll take a long time to play out, kind of like demographics.

    Replies: @PhysicistDave

  100. Donbas Liberation Now! There’s a slogan Americans can get behind! Udachi!

    • LOL: Johann Ricke
  101. @Jim Don Bob
    @Space Ghost


    The guy is a complete tool who has never made an honest good faith argument in his life.
     
    Au contraire, my friend. DeLong made this excellent assessment of HRC back in 2003 which Steve wrote about here: https://www.unz.com/isteve/ex-clinton-staffer-brad-delongs-post-on-hillarys-management-skills/. For some unknown reason, the link to the page on his website no longer works.

    June 07, 2003

    TIME TO POUND MY HEAD AGAINST THE WALL ONCE AGAIN

    … My two cents’ worth–and I think it is the two cents’ worth of everybody who worked for the Clinton Administration health care reform effort of 1993-1994–is that Hillary Rodham Clinton needs to be kept very far away from the White House for the rest of her life. Heading up health-care reform was the only major administrative job she has ever tried to do. And she was a complete flop at it. She had neither the grasp of policy substance, the managerial skills, nor the political smarts to do the job she was then given. And she wasn’t smart enough to realize that she was in over her head and had to get out of the Health Care Czar role quickly.

    So when senior members of the economic team said that key senators like Daniel Patrick Moynihan would have this-and-that objection, she told them they were disloyal. When junior members of the economic team told her that the Congressional Budget Office would say such-and-such, she told them (wrongly) that her conversations with CBO head Robert Reischauer had already fixed that. When long-time senior hill staffers told her that she was making a dreadful mistake by fighting with rather than reaching out to John Breaux and Jim Cooper, she told them that they did not understand the wave of popular political support the bill would generate. And when substantive objections were raised to the plan by analysts calculating the moral hazard and adverse selection pressures it would put on the nation’s health-care system…

    Hillary Rodham Clinton has already flopped as a senior administrative official in the executive branch–the equivalent of an Undersecretary. Perhaps she will make a good senator. But there is no reason to think that she would be anything but an abysmal president.

    Posted by DeLong at June 7, 2003 10:15 PM | TrackBack

    Replies: @res, @Ben tillman

    When pages are disappeared I like to post an archive link.
    https://web.archive.org/web/20190428210251/http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/movable_type/2003_archives/001600.html

    The interesting thing about that one is the disappearing did not happen until 2019. I am surprised it lasted through the 2016 election. Even after Steve wrote about it in March, 2016.

    Note that it looks like the whole domain went way, not just that page.

    • Thanks: Calvin Hobbes, Ben tillman
    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob
    @res

    Steve's post was the number 1 hit searching for 'brad delong hillary' using duckduckgo. It was #13 on the second page of a google search. Hmmmm.

    Replies: @res

  102. @HammerJack
    @AndrewR


    Dementia, perhaps?
     
    Well yes, the article states that the man is suffering from dementia. There will be more and more of these stories, I expect.

    A close friend's father (another case) was taken for everything he was worth, in a non-romantic scenario. Something like an investment scheme.

    Replies: @AndrewR

    Well, thus is the value of keeping your beloved loved and near.

    If you only talk to your dad a few times a month and/or he doesn’t trust you, then it may not be hard for a stranger to con him.

    Hajnal line, and all that.

    Right now I’m helping to take care of my increasingly demented father and it’s anything but easy. But I’m pretty certain (and grateful) that the help we do have aren’t bright enough to really scam him. Plus my sociopath sister stays on his finances like a hawk because she wants her cut when he dies. So really all I have to worry about is her….

    • Replies: @HammerJack
    @AndrewR

    Yeah, I was gonna hit LOL but it's really a 'black-humor' type of thing isn't it. Say, I'm sure that phrase has been deprecated — so what's taken its place?

    Replies: @AndrewR

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @AndrewR


    Hajnal line, and all that.
     
    How does the Hajnal Line compare to the Hu Line? And what's in-between?


    https://bigthink.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/origin.png



    https://autooverload.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Beach-5-2.jpg
  103. @PhysicistDave
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Citizen of a Silly Country wrote to me:


    Regardless, I’m gkad to see that you’ve accepted that in a multiracial society, important positions should be doled out on a racial basis.

    I know that it took a lot for you to give up your colorblind meritocracy fantasy. I’m proud of you Dave.
     

    Nope, I still do not agree that positions should be handed out based on race.

    I merely pointed out the simple fact -- there are certainly lots of Black folks smarter than Lisa Cook.

    I made no policy recommendation based on that simple fact.

    For the record, I support abolishing the Fed. The US currency was much more stable before 1913 than since.

    Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country

    You may not agree, but that’s what happens in multiracial societies. It’s natural, and a scientist should respect nature.

    As to the fed, that’s an area that I have some background. They’re not always good at what they do, but they work with the tools that they have. I actually feel a bit bad for them.

    Credit has to expand or the whole system will collapse, but we’ve reached a point where each new dollar is adding less and less to gdp growth, i.e. you need to keep upping the amount of debt just to maintain your current level of growth.

    Unfortunately, as you add debt relative to gdp you both lower how much each dollar of debt adds to gdp and you make the system more and more unstable. The good news is that it’ll take a long time to play out, kind of like demographics.

    • Replies: @PhysicistDave
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Citizen of a Silly Country wrote to me:


    Credit has to expand or the whole system will collapse, but we’ve reached a point where each new dollar is adding less and less to gdp growth, i.e. you need to keep upping the amount of debt just to maintain your current level of growth.
     
    That is crack-pot economics.

    In a free country, people choose to forego some consumption and instead invest it. Any expansion of credit beyond that is neither necessary nor desirable. It just produces asset bubbles.

    CSC also wrote:

    As to the fed, that’s an area that I have some background. They’re not always good at what they do, but they work with the tools that they have.
     
    According to the federal government's own statistics, the US dollar has lost more than 96 % of its value since the Fed was founded.

    The crooks at the Fed do indeed "work with the tools they have": to create unsustainable asset bubbles in the process of destroying the currency.

    CSC also wrote:

    You may not agree, but that’s what happens in multiracial societies. It’s natural, and a scientist should respect nature.
     
    You are a willing tool of the oligarchs.

    That is exactly what they want: they want the different ethnic groups to bow and scrape before the oligarchs begging to get a slightly bigger piece of the pie. Divide et impera.

    Free men and woman do not tolerate that.

    Free men and women abolish any regime that subjects them to that sort of humiliation:

    "-That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it..."
     
    The existing regime -- the Deep State, the Fed, the IRS, the universities and public schools, and all the rest -- is not eternal. Its days are numbered, and its demise is looking increasingly imminent, despite people like you who are so cowardly that you are willing to bend the knee and beg for crumbs from the oligarchs.

    Sic semper tyrannis.
  104. @Henry's Cat
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    If every other Steve post (the rest would be about golf courses) just stated: 'Race realism is real - ignoring it has consequences' would you be such a regular?

    Let Steve do his thang.

    Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Steve used to move past noticing. Now, he doesn’t. It’s reasonable to ask why.

    Regardless, we should all ask ourselves what’s the point, what is it that we want to achieve. Steve refuses to answer that simple question.

    His readers should find that odd.

    • Replies: @Henry's Cat
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    How do you move past citizenism?

    Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country

  105. @Anonymous
    @Citizen of a Silly Country


    We live in a tribal society, and this is how multiracial societies work.
     
    Nope. This is how multiracial societies fail. I've spent some time in Federal bureaucracies, and most of the effort in such organizations is devoted to covering up for the utter incompetence of the workers. They have no effective chain of command or technical skills. Much of the effort and plotting is devoted to preventing any action that might need technical skills, usually by false reporting to management.

    "Political reality" doesn't just dominate, it displaces.

    Many people get badly hurt or killed, as in the Iraq fiasco (no military government was ready after the conquest), the Afghanistan fiasco (same thing), the 2008 international financial panic, and now the Fauci Plague.

    Which gives you such horror shows as the Katrina relief efforts, or the Afghanistan rout, or the FBI/CIA collusion to neuter Trump, or (finally) the utter panic among today's Democrats, their implausible propaganda, their reliance on brute and obvious force, and their reliance on election manipulation. Such is the mature form of any "tribal society" and any political machine. It's why Western European countries have a complete reorganization about every four score and seven years, as Lincoln put it.

    Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country

    No, what causes multiracial societies to fail is being multiracial societies.

  106. @Colin Wright
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    'She’s nominated because she’s one of the better black candidates. We live in a tribal society, and this is how multiracial societies work.'

    How would we know how multi-racial societies would work -- at least, egalitarian ones?

    None ever has -- and at the moment, we're demonstrating that we won't be the first.

    Why don't you go test the world's first concrete parachute? It's at least as reasonable a proposition.

    Replies: @Cato

    How would we know how multi-racial societies would work — at least, egalitarian ones? None ever has — and at the moment, we’re demonstrating that we won’t be the first.

    If we think of multi-ethnic rather than multi-racial, there are some successful countries: Singapore and Switzerland perhaps the most conspicuous. In the former case, a relatively authoritarian government; in the latter case, geographical separation and very high levels of regional autonomy. In our country, the left seems to be pushing toward the Singapore model, and the right (at least many of the rightists commenting here) seems to be pushing toward separatism.

    • Replies: @kaganovitch
    @Cato

    in the latter case, geographical separation and very high levels of regional autonomy.

    The USA as originally conceived had a lot of regional autonomy as well.

    Replies: @Cato

    , @Peter Lund
    @Cato


    Singapore and Switzerland perhaps the most conspicuous. In the former case, a relatively authoritarian government; in the latter case, geographical separation and very high levels of regional autonomy.
     
    And in both cases, not much redistribution between the ethnicities. That's also why the EU works (for now, at least): very little redistribution between the member states. Still, there is too much redistribution between the states and too much of the EU budget is wasted. I want less spending on farm subsidies and more on defense and Frontex -- which is actually the direction we are moving in. Unfortunately, we also moving towards more redistribution between member states (from well-run economies to Southern basket cases).

    Replies: @Cato

    , @Colin Wright
    @Cato

    'we think of multi-ethnic rather than multi-racial, there are some successful countries: Singapore and Switzerland perhaps the most conspicuous...'

    Intelligent counter-examples, but in the case of Singapore, it always was -- and still is -- a matter of the Chinese will share -- on their terms.

    Switzerland? Don't make me laugh. Mountaineers from adjacent valleys are 'multi-ethnic' because some speak French and others speak German?

    These are 'examples' that prove just how slight and/or irrelevant the differences need to be. Now, take your basic German Jew and your basic ghetto Negro and explain how this is going to be 'egalitarian.'

    Obviously, someone's going to have to be in the driver's seat, and -- as we're seeing -- even when it's the Jew it don't work too good.

  107. Off Topic, but is Coronavirus ever really off-topic for this blog?

    The NYT has an article on how bad the CDC is. The agency has not released data on covid in a remotely timely manner, though they can call you racist without any delays. Supposedly, they don’t release data because it will be “misinterpreted.” That’s certainly possible. Anti-vaxers have a lot of trouble reading papers. Eyeballing a chart I found, the CDC is 30% black and 45% non-white overall. Is this past the point of no return?

    To a first cut, all the bureaucracies are Democrats. I’m wondering if federal functioning is severely impacted by agency demographics. I wondered if this affected the last election. If the state agencies in charge of vote counting are 40% black and 60% white Democrats, then i can see how they’d have difficulties with honestly counting the votes. That’s in addition to the TNB that makes counting the votes in two days impossible.

    Are sociologists non-worthless enough to have come up with rules of thumb for the tipping points of affirmative action are? Like, if your warehouse workers are 10% black, then you might have some trouble with theft. If your warehouse workforce is 90% black, it probably won’t work very well at all. But what’s the tipping point? Ditto for women. How female can a government department be and still do their job in a reality-based manner?

    When the NYT says a prog part of the federal government is not doing its job, i think we can be pretty sure the agency is doing even worse than they say. I couldn’t not find it in a quick search, but i saw not too long ago a CDC spokeswoman said the CDC is not there to provide real-time information and advice diring a pandemic. Well, then what agency is? That agency needs the CDC’s budget.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Rob

    CDC is located in Atlanta which is 50% black. And Atlanta is a hotspot for educated blacks, who are OTOH the kind of blacks who might get jobs at the CDC (nice govt job with benefits and they won't ease you out for incompetence the way they might in private industry) but OTOH are affirmative action beneficiaries who aren't really as qualified as they appear to be on paper.

    Here is a photo put out by the CDC Foundation (which is somehow part of the CDC):

    https://www.cdcfoundation.org/sites/default/files/images/medshare%201_0.jpg

    With the caption: Recently, our staff volunteered with two organizations here in Atlanta: The Atlanta Community Food Bank and MedShare.

    I think this might give you an idea of what the typical CDC staff employee looks like. Not exactly the white doctors in white lab coats with test tubes you might imagine. If there's anyone I want controlling disease, it's these ladies. They give me such a feeling of confidence. Note the mural in the background, where whites have been written out of history. No white men to be seen anywhere.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Emil Nikola Richard, @res, @Art Deco

  108. @Twinkie

    But, then, in good papers there are always data issues.
     
    I don’t even know where to start with this one.

    I wish I experienced this kind of loving indulgence on my dissertation and peer-reviewed articles.

    Replies: @ic1000, @Reg Cæsar

    I wish I experienced this kind of loving indulgence on my dissertation and peer-reviewed articles.

    The Data Game would appeal to fans of Jeopardy. With trannies rather than serial killers:

  109. @AndrewR
    @HammerJack

    Well, thus is the value of keeping your beloved loved and near.

    If you only talk to your dad a few times a month and/or he doesn't trust you, then it may not be hard for a stranger to con him.


    Hajnal line, and all that.

    Right now I'm helping to take care of my increasingly demented father and it's anything but easy. But I'm pretty certain (and grateful) that the help we do have aren't bright enough to really scam him. Plus my sociopath sister stays on his finances like a hawk because she wants her cut when he dies. So really all I have to worry about is her....

    Replies: @HammerJack, @Reg Cæsar

    Yeah, I was gonna hit LOL but it’s really a ‘black-humor’ type of thing isn’t it. Say, I’m sure that phrase has been deprecated — so what’s taken its place?

    • Replies: @AndrewR
    @HammerJack

    Humor of color?

  110. Anonymous[352] • Disclaimer says:
    @PhysicistDave
    @Anonymous

    Anonymous[352] wrote:


    As an older guy, I’ve found that you can push people around or bullshit them, until you move to strip them of their livelihood. Then things can get very crazy, very quickly.
     
    Yeah.

    I wonder if the ruling Western elites are intentionally inciting civil war or if they are just too stupid to know what they are doing?

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Bardon Kaldian

    I wonder if the ruling Western elites are intentionally inciting civil war or if they are just too stupid to know what they are doing?

    That’s just asking the ancient question, “are they stupid, or just evil?”

    Whenever two viable polarities are established, the driving force usually balances itself somewhere between the two. Like a tightrope-walker. So maybe both are perversely necessary for the existence of that force.

    If one of the “poles” fails, the tightrope-walker falls.

    Evil needs stupidity to get things done. Stupidity needs evil to tell it what to do, and prevent self-destructing.

    And so it goes…

  111. @AndrewR
    @HammerJack

    Well, thus is the value of keeping your beloved loved and near.

    If you only talk to your dad a few times a month and/or he doesn't trust you, then it may not be hard for a stranger to con him.


    Hajnal line, and all that.

    Right now I'm helping to take care of my increasingly demented father and it's anything but easy. But I'm pretty certain (and grateful) that the help we do have aren't bright enough to really scam him. Plus my sociopath sister stays on his finances like a hawk because she wants her cut when he dies. So really all I have to worry about is her....

    Replies: @HammerJack, @Reg Cæsar

    Hajnal line, and all that.

    How does the Hajnal Line compare to the Hu Line? And what’s in-between?

  112. @Sam Haysom
    @Bill Jones

    Which has always been kind of cringe because his credentials have always been just above average especially for the era he grew up in.

    Replies: @kaganovitch

    Which has always been kind of cringe because his credentials have always been just above average especially for the era he grew up in.

    I think well below average. According to Wiki, he couldn’t even make the cut for the Lycee Sisowath upper classes and he had to enroll in carpentry school.

  113. @Cato
    @Colin Wright


    How would we know how multi-racial societies would work — at least, egalitarian ones? None ever has — and at the moment, we’re demonstrating that we won’t be the first.
     
    If we think of multi-ethnic rather than multi-racial, there are some successful countries: Singapore and Switzerland perhaps the most conspicuous. In the former case, a relatively authoritarian government; in the latter case, geographical separation and very high levels of regional autonomy. In our country, the left seems to be pushing toward the Singapore model, and the right (at least many of the rightists commenting here) seems to be pushing toward separatism.

    Replies: @kaganovitch, @Peter Lund, @Colin Wright

    in the latter case, geographical separation and very high levels of regional autonomy.

    The USA as originally conceived had a lot of regional autonomy as well.

    • Thanks: HammerJack
    • Replies: @Cato
    @kaganovitch


    The USA as originally conceived had a lot of regional autonomy
     
    One of the brilliant ideas of our ancestors. Imagine if we could combine regional autonomy with the ability to secede while retaining the freedom to settle where one sees fit -- if neighborhoods are no longer in harmony with our county, they could secede from the county to form their own, and like-minded persons would have no obstacles to joining them. The US would become a conglomeration of thousands of autonomous and internally harmonious counties.
  114. @anonymous
    @Anon

    I can't for the life of me understand why Trump supporters didn't recruit White biker clubs to contest the streets with Antifa in 2020.

    The only group that apparently tried to contest the streets were "The Proud Boys".

    The NRA Guns, Guns, Guns types were AWOL as usual. Where military veterans VFW.

    America needs organic versions of the Cossacks - there is even a biker club with that name.

    JR
    The Political Cesspool

    Replies: @Veteran Aryan

    I can’t for the life of me understand why Trump supporters didn’t recruit White biker clubs to contest the streets with Antifa in 2020.

    Because the streets in question are in heavily liberal areas. It’s always a mistake to let your enemy choose the battleground.

  115. @eric
    The 1900 break was highlighted as the key data point by everyone who commented on this paper before the data selection bias was noted. Now it's supposedly all about the cross-state differential. However, the north was much more economically active from 1870 to 1940, so blacks and whites would have been more active in the north by any metric. The north would have had fewer lynchings and riots. This is known as an omitted variables bias: if you omit a significant variable, other variables correlated with that significant omitted variable will pick up its significance, giving it illusory significance.

    Steve should be familiar with this because it is a similar story to the famous Levitt abortion paper, where an initial decline in Black crime was initially touted via a time series. Later when noted the crack peak circa 1990 was noted, they retreated to the cross-state differential.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    Thanks.

  116. So Lisa Cook springs to academic prominence to the point where a senile president in complete thrall to black gurl magic nominates her for a seat on the federal reserve. How inconvenient for her old faculty mentors like Paul Romer and Brad DeLong, who are now scuttling like crabs in a bucket to defend their role in signing off on and later praising her shoddy research and nonsensical conclusions. Bet they never saw this coming. It was THEY who should have been considered for those prominent positions. Sorry guys, you’re too pale, stale and male to rise above your ivy League sinecures. However the sky is the limit for the many Lisa Cooks of the world.

    • LOL: PhysicistDave
  117. @Rob
    Off Topic, but is Coronavirus ever really off-topic for this blog?

    The NYT has an article on how bad the CDC is. The agency has not released data on covid in a remotely timely manner, though they can call you racist without any delays. Supposedly, they don’t release data because it will be “misinterpreted.” That’s certainly possible. Anti-vaxers have a lot of trouble reading papers. Eyeballing a chart I found, the CDC is 30% black and 45% non-white overall. Is this past the point of no return?

    To a first cut, all the bureaucracies are Democrats. I’m wondering if federal functioning is severely impacted by agency demographics. I wondered if this affected the last election. If the state agencies in charge of vote counting are 40% black and 60% white Democrats, then i can see how they’d have difficulties with honestly counting the votes. That’s in addition to the TNB that makes counting the votes in two days impossible.

    Are sociologists non-worthless enough to have come up with rules of thumb for the tipping points of affirmative action are? Like, if your warehouse workers are 10% black, then you might have some trouble with theft. If your warehouse workforce is 90% black, it probably won’t work very well at all. But what’s the tipping point? Ditto for women. How female can a government department be and still do their job in a reality-based manner?

    When the NYT says a prog part of the federal government is not doing its job, i think we can be pretty sure the agency is doing even worse than they say. I couldn't not find it in a quick search, but i saw not too long ago a CDC spokeswoman said the CDC is not there to provide real-time information and advice diring a pandemic. Well, then what agency is? That agency needs the CDC’s budget.

    Replies: @Jack D

    CDC is located in Atlanta which is 50% black. And Atlanta is a hotspot for educated blacks, who are OTOH the kind of blacks who might get jobs at the CDC (nice govt job with benefits and they won’t ease you out for incompetence the way they might in private industry) but OTOH are affirmative action beneficiaries who aren’t really as qualified as they appear to be on paper.

    Here is a photo put out by the CDC Foundation (which is somehow part of the CDC):

    With the caption: Recently, our staff volunteered with two organizations here in Atlanta: The Atlanta Community Food Bank and MedShare.

    I think this might give you an idea of what the typical CDC staff employee looks like. Not exactly the white doctors in white lab coats with test tubes you might imagine. If there’s anyone I want controlling disease, it’s these ladies. They give me such a feeling of confidence. Note the mural in the background, where whites have been written out of history. No white men to be seen anywhere.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Jack D

    Was this taken on casual Friday?

    Or is every day at CDC "Can't Dress Classily"? Come on, even Hawaiians wear flowered shirts to work.

    , @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Jack D

    Do you know anybody who works for the CDC?

    I met one once. She was in a bad spot on the hot crazy axis. I am pretty sure she has spent more than a weekend behind bars after confiding in her doctor that she was contemplating suicide. I don't know that for a fact that I could swear to in court, but she was precisely exactly that type.

    She had a management job. Probably salary grade 16.

    Replies: @Alrenous

    , @res
    @Jack D

    CDC was 32.4% black in 2018. More at
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/they-should-run-psas-encouraging-people-to-call-911-if-they-are-having-a-heart-attack-or-stroke/#comment-3847553

    There is a great deal of variation in demographics for different job categories. See link.

    , @Art Deco
    @Jack D

    CDC is located in Atlanta which is 50% black.

    The Atlanta metropolitan settlement splays over 10 counties. The population of those counties is about 33% black, quite near the statewide mean. Clayton County is the only black majority county around Atlanta.

    The rap on the CDC of late by researchers who've worked with them is that they were dedicated to bureaucratic process no matter what was going on in the wider world (e.g. insisting that research papers be assembled and composed according to stereotype).

    About 6.5% of the research degrees and first-professional degrees in health-related faculties are issued to black students. For master's degrees, its around 17%. The racial data do not have a background more granular than that, but I'm assuming much of this consists of post-baccalaureate nursing school graduates. The people depicted work for the philanthropic affiliate of the CDC. It's a fundraising vehicle.

    Replies: @Hibernian, @Jim Don Bob

  118. @Jack D
    @Rob

    CDC is located in Atlanta which is 50% black. And Atlanta is a hotspot for educated blacks, who are OTOH the kind of blacks who might get jobs at the CDC (nice govt job with benefits and they won't ease you out for incompetence the way they might in private industry) but OTOH are affirmative action beneficiaries who aren't really as qualified as they appear to be on paper.

    Here is a photo put out by the CDC Foundation (which is somehow part of the CDC):

    https://www.cdcfoundation.org/sites/default/files/images/medshare%201_0.jpg

    With the caption: Recently, our staff volunteered with two organizations here in Atlanta: The Atlanta Community Food Bank and MedShare.

    I think this might give you an idea of what the typical CDC staff employee looks like. Not exactly the white doctors in white lab coats with test tubes you might imagine. If there's anyone I want controlling disease, it's these ladies. They give me such a feeling of confidence. Note the mural in the background, where whites have been written out of history. No white men to be seen anywhere.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Emil Nikola Richard, @res, @Art Deco

    Was this taken on casual Friday?

    Or is every day at CDC “Can’t Dress Classily”? Come on, even Hawaiians wear flowered shirts to work.

  119. @Cato
    @Colin Wright


    How would we know how multi-racial societies would work — at least, egalitarian ones? None ever has — and at the moment, we’re demonstrating that we won’t be the first.
     
    If we think of multi-ethnic rather than multi-racial, there are some successful countries: Singapore and Switzerland perhaps the most conspicuous. In the former case, a relatively authoritarian government; in the latter case, geographical separation and very high levels of regional autonomy. In our country, the left seems to be pushing toward the Singapore model, and the right (at least many of the rightists commenting here) seems to be pushing toward separatism.

    Replies: @kaganovitch, @Peter Lund, @Colin Wright

    Singapore and Switzerland perhaps the most conspicuous. In the former case, a relatively authoritarian government; in the latter case, geographical separation and very high levels of regional autonomy.

    And in both cases, not much redistribution between the ethnicities. That’s also why the EU works (for now, at least): very little redistribution between the member states. Still, there is too much redistribution between the states and too much of the EU budget is wasted. I want less spending on farm subsidies and more on defense and Frontex — which is actually the direction we are moving in. Unfortunately, we also moving towards more redistribution between member states (from well-run economies to Southern basket cases).

    • Replies: @Cato
    @Peter Lund

    I wasn't aware that the Schengen border enforcement was called Frontex, but yes, I agree, the EU needs border enforcement even more desperately than the US needs it.

    Redistribution can be justified if it is directed towards capabilities-increasing (I sound like Amartya Sen) in a population capable of increasing its capabilities (hmm... sounds much less like Sen).

    Greece is the most flagrant parasite on EU redistribution. My view on Greece has, for years, been that it should be removed from the EuroZone -- if you can't collect taxes, you don't belong in the same grouping as Germany. Faced with expulsion, Greece might get its act together. If it couldn't, it would go back to the drachma and become the inexpensive vacation destination of choice (and I could buy that nice place I've been eyeing on Kos!).

  120. @Citizen of a Silly Country
    @PhysicistDave

    You may not agree, but that's what happens in multiracial societies. It's natural, and a scientist should respect nature.

    As to the fed, that's an area that I have some background. They're not always good at what they do, but they work with the tools that they have. I actually feel a bit bad for them.

    Credit has to expand or the whole system will collapse, but we've reached a point where each new dollar is adding less and less to gdp growth, i.e. you need to keep upping the amount of debt just to maintain your current level of growth.

    Unfortunately, as you add debt relative to gdp you both lower how much each dollar of debt adds to gdp and you make the system more and more unstable. The good news is that it'll take a long time to play out, kind of like demographics.

    Replies: @PhysicistDave

    Citizen of a Silly Country wrote to me:

    Credit has to expand or the whole system will collapse, but we’ve reached a point where each new dollar is adding less and less to gdp growth, i.e. you need to keep upping the amount of debt just to maintain your current level of growth.

    That is crack-pot economics.

    In a free country, people choose to forego some consumption and instead invest it. Any expansion of credit beyond that is neither necessary nor desirable. It just produces asset bubbles.

    CSC also wrote:

    As to the fed, that’s an area that I have some background. They’re not always good at what they do, but they work with the tools that they have.

    According to the federal government’s own statistics, the US dollar has lost more than 96 % of its value since the Fed was founded.

    The crooks at the Fed do indeed “work with the tools they have”: to create unsustainable asset bubbles in the process of destroying the currency.

    CSC also wrote:

    You may not agree, but that’s what happens in multiracial societies. It’s natural, and a scientist should respect nature.

    You are a willing tool of the oligarchs.

    That is exactly what they want: they want the different ethnic groups to bow and scrape before the oligarchs begging to get a slightly bigger piece of the pie. Divide et impera.

    Free men and woman do not tolerate that.

    Free men and women abolish any regime that subjects them to that sort of humiliation:

    “-That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it…”

    The existing regime — the Deep State, the Fed, the IRS, the universities and public schools, and all the rest — is not eternal. Its days are numbered, and its demise is looking increasingly imminent, despite people like you who are so cowardly that you are willing to bend the knee and beg for crumbs from the oligarchs.

    Sic semper tyrannis.

  121. @Ebony Obelisk
    1. Economy roaring back

    2. Trucker Canadian protestors getting the J6 treatment

    3. Russia about to get its butt kicked by the diverse American military

    4. Conservatives being held accountable

    5. Bank accounts being frozen

    6. Juwan Howard defends self against aggressive white men

    7. Demographic change continues

    8. All journalists dislike rubes

    9. All academics dislike rubes

    10. Men of Children Color impregnating white girls


    Dang it feels good being progressive!

    Replies: @tyrone, @kaganovitch, @The Germ Theory of Disease

    “Dang it feels good being progressive!”

    Dang, I bet it’ll feel even better when all you Progressives of Color are slaves of the Chinese.

    Didn’t think that far ahead, didya.

    You types never do.

  122. @PhysicistDave
    @Jack D

    Jack D wrote to me:


    Putin would also be correct if he pointed out that Alaska was a Russian speaking territory until 1867.
     
    Except that the Donbass is Russian-speaking now.

    Like kinda a big difference, doncha think?

    The issue is simply popular sovereignty -- are people entitled to choose their government now?

    Anyone favoring anything that even approximates democracy has to support the liberation fo the Donbass.

    That Putin and Xi will thereby make the ruling Western elites look like ignorant impotent fools is merely a pleasant side benefit.

    We are seeing the beginning of a New World Order indeed, just not the one the Western oligarchs had planned on.

    I'm thinking I need to brush up on my high-school Russian, not to mention my rudimentary Mandarin.

    Replies: @Hibernian, @Wizard of Oz

    Are you in favor of returning a few Texas counties along the Rio Grande to Mexico?

    • Replies: @Brutusale
    @Hibernian

    Just another one of those borders that was fought over already that will be (is being) fought over again. As is the case with the current situation, indeed with ALL these border flare-ups, if the Beaners had the military capacity and there were no interlopers, the war would be fought again.

    But as a former federal official states, the Mexican cartels are already in "operational control, of the border.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/border-crisis-cant-wait-three-more-years-new-administration-fix-russ-vought

    , @PhysicistDave
    @Hibernian

    Hibernian asked me:


    Are you in favor of returning a few Texas counties along the Rio Grande to Mexico?
     
    If most of those residents want their counties to return to Mexico, sure, why not?

    When most of the people of the Ukraine wanted independence from Moscow, Moscow let them go.

    Now most of the people of the Donbass want to be free of Kiev. So why shouldn't Kiev let them go?

    You and the other Western militarists seem to be pushing a rather obvious double standard here.

    I am in favor of secession anywhere and everywhere that the people want to be free of some centralized authority -- Brexit, the breakup of the USSR, the breakup of Ukraine, etc. By all means let provinces secede from countries, let cities secede from provinces, let neighborhoods secede from cities, and so on.

    Why not just try freedom? Some of the most creative periods of human history were times of independent city-states.

    And, yes, if any states of the USA want to secede, I certainly think they should be allowed to do so. (I do not think the oligarchs will let them secede, but then I rarely agree with the oligarchs.)

    #LetTheDonbassBeFree

    Replies: @Jack D

  123. @PhysicistDave
    @dearieme

    dearieme asked AnotherDad:


    Are you arguing that the early Christianity of James, Peter, and Paul nudged weak people into being liars, generated corruption, encouraged terrible public policies and eroded longstanding traditions the support society?
     
    That was certainly the Roman perception (not to mention Edward Gibbon's)!

    The apostle Paul was in fact convinced that he had been taken up into the "third heaven," and he had a tendency to hear voices of his "risen Lord." And he mentions as normal behavior in the early Christian churches of "speaking in tongues" and, even weirder, other people who interpreted the speaking in tongues to decipher what they really meant.

    Most modern Christians would find the members of the early church to be not at all their kind of people.

    AnotherDad is right, though, that religions -- whether mainline Christianity, Mormonism, Scientology, or whatever -- tend to round off their rough edges over time and become just quaintly charming residues of an earlier age.

    To be sure, being a scientist, I myself have a tendency to be the kid shouting out "But the emperor is naked!" Which perhaps makes me not the ideal guest to invite to a dinner party.

    Replies: @dearieme

    religions … tend to round off their rough edges over time and become just quaintly charming residues of an earlier age

    That’s not an account of the Roman Catholic Church of the Medieval, Renaissance, and Reformation periods that I recognise.

    • Replies: @Hibernian
    @dearieme

    During the Reformation / Counter Reformation period a lot of rough edges were knocked off, otherwise we may well have become a quaintly charming residue or just disappeared,

    The Gates of Hell will not prevail against the One, Holy, Catholic, and Apostolic Church.

    , @PhysicistDave
    @dearieme

    dearieme wrote to me:


    [Dave] religions … tend to round off their rough edges over time and become just quaintly charming residues of an earlier age

    [dearieme] That’s not an account of the Roman Catholic Church of the Medieval, Renaissance, and Reformation periods that I recognise.
     
    Well, I had in mind a situation such as now obtains in the USA where there is religious freedom.

    Even in the case of Catholicism, pre-Reformation Catholicism was certainly corrupt but not as crazy as the early church: i.e., there was not routine speaking in tongues in the pre-Reformation churches.

    As I indicated, I am a rather passionate advocate of telling the truth even if the sky falls, which automatically makes me hostile to any organized religion. No religion encourages its adherents to try to aggressively poke holes in the creeds of that religion.

    But as a scientist, it is my job to seek out situation in which our existing theories fail, so as to produce better theories..

    That, fundamentally, is the source of the innate hostility between science and religion. It is not that scientists "believe" in certain doctrines -- evolution, a universe that is billions of years old, or whatever -- that contradict religious dogmas. No, the hostility rather is that scientists do not believe in "belief": science progresses by demolishing existing doctrines, not by propping them up.
  124. @Jack D
    @PhysicistDave

    Putin would also be correct if he pointed out that Alaska was a Russian speaking territory until 1867.

    South Tirol is a German speaking part of Italy . Is it ok if Austria invades?

    Kaliningrad was German for 1,000 years before 1945. Will Russia give it back to Germany? What about the parts of Finland that it grabbed?

    America was an English colony until it wasn't. In fact we STILL speak English (mostly). Should the UK get the US back on that basis?

    There are all kinds of interesting points like this, so if you cherry pick and rewind the clock to arbitrary dates you could shift all sorts of borders around. Some of these shifts would favor Russia, others wouldn't. The basic deal in Europe since 1945 is that you aren't supposed to change borders by military force regardless of ancient history. Once you start doing that, who knows where it end, especially in the Nuclear Age.

    Replies: @PhysicistDave, @Professional Slav

    If that was the agreement since 1945, then it’s a bit odd Kosovo was supported and then recognized by the West.
    The 90s isn’t really ancient history when it comes to Ukrainian/Russian borders. Your own logic dictates that Donbass and Lugansk were Ukranian, until they’re not, a bit like the Golan Heights. Also, when people are given a choice between a corrupt shithole and a slightly less corrupt shithole, I’d wager most would choose the latter.
    I want America and my taxes out of there, regardless of what happens to those villages.

    • Thanks: PhysicistDave, J.Ross
    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Professional Slav

    There was no spontaneous uprising by the people of the Donbas and Lugansk. It was all choreographed from Moscow and the "little green men" were Russian soldiers sent from Moscow. And this remains true to this day.

    Putin frankly doesn't give a shit about the residents of Donbas and Lugansk and their preferences - they are just pawns in his geopolitical game. If he says he does, he says it with the utmost cynicism - he cares in exactly the same way that Hitler cared about the Germans of Sudetenland. If the people of Chechnya preferred a different regime, would Putin be OK with that or would he bomb them flat? We already know the answer to this.

    And the West should care about those villages for the same reason that we should have cared more about the villages of Czechoslovakia in 1938. Putin's aim is not to take Luhansk - he wants to roll back the lines to 1989. So bye, bye Baltics, Russian tanks in Budapest and Berlin, etc.

    Replies: @Art Deco, @William Badwhite, @Paperback Writer

    , @Art Deco
    @Professional Slav

    then it’s a bit odd Kosovo was supported and then recognized by the West.

    No, it isn't. Yugoslavia was already in fragments and Serbia and it's associated militias were already responsible for a six digit death toll.

  125. @HammerJack
    @AndrewR

    Yeah, I was gonna hit LOL but it's really a 'black-humor' type of thing isn't it. Say, I'm sure that phrase has been deprecated — so what's taken its place?

    Replies: @AndrewR

    Humor of color?

  126. @Anonymous
    Meanwhile, the Mayor of Ottawa is attempting to find "laws" to strip Canadian protesters of their means of income by selling off their private property that generates it.

    As an older guy, I’ve found that you can push people around or bullshit them, until you move to strip them of their livelihood. Then things can get very crazy, very quickly. It’s not something particular to Canadians. Everyone responds the same way when they are in a bitter conflict and realize they have literally nothing to lose. This is where the quality of grace is critically important. You can still be a superdouche with the asshole moves and the rhetoric but… don’t cry about what happens next.

    File Under: Fuck Around and Find Out

    https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1495840068359106568?s=20&t=G_30kznofMhL68Q0hWqeqQ

    https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1495961814420664327?s=20&t=G_30kznofMhL68Q0hWqeqQ

    Replies: @PhysicistDave, @ThreeCranes

    “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness….”

    I’d been instructed that the phrase “pursuit of happiness” in the historical context of the Declaration had meant the right to make a living, to be left in peace to pursue a profession of one’s choice. Clearly, seizing the accoutrements of protestor’s means of livelihood is a violation of the “Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God”.

  127. @Hibernian
    @PhysicistDave

    Are you in favor of returning a few Texas counties along the Rio Grande to Mexico?

    Replies: @Brutusale, @PhysicistDave

    Just another one of those borders that was fought over already that will be (is being) fought over again. As is the case with the current situation, indeed with ALL these border flare-ups, if the Beaners had the military capacity and there were no interlopers, the war would be fought again.

    But as a former federal official states, the Mexican cartels are already in “operational control, of the border.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/border-crisis-cant-wait-three-more-years-new-administration-fix-russ-vought

  128. @Jack D
    @Rob

    CDC is located in Atlanta which is 50% black. And Atlanta is a hotspot for educated blacks, who are OTOH the kind of blacks who might get jobs at the CDC (nice govt job with benefits and they won't ease you out for incompetence the way they might in private industry) but OTOH are affirmative action beneficiaries who aren't really as qualified as they appear to be on paper.

    Here is a photo put out by the CDC Foundation (which is somehow part of the CDC):

    https://www.cdcfoundation.org/sites/default/files/images/medshare%201_0.jpg

    With the caption: Recently, our staff volunteered with two organizations here in Atlanta: The Atlanta Community Food Bank and MedShare.

    I think this might give you an idea of what the typical CDC staff employee looks like. Not exactly the white doctors in white lab coats with test tubes you might imagine. If there's anyone I want controlling disease, it's these ladies. They give me such a feeling of confidence. Note the mural in the background, where whites have been written out of history. No white men to be seen anywhere.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Emil Nikola Richard, @res, @Art Deco

    Do you know anybody who works for the CDC?

    I met one once. She was in a bad spot on the hot crazy axis. I am pretty sure she has spent more than a weekend behind bars after confiding in her doctor that she was contemplating suicide. I don’t know that for a fact that I could swear to in court, but she was precisely exactly that type.

    She had a management job. Probably salary grade 16.

    • Replies: @Alrenous
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    "For example, it’s one thing "to know" that bureaucrats can’t be fired. It’s a totally different thing to really understand what this means in a work environment. The change in dynamic in the workplace is incredible. I have colleagues who do no work at all for weeks at a time and everyone knows it."

    "If someone really really screws up, they will not be given any new work. That’s about the extent of accountability."
    https://foseti.wordpress.com/2011/02/02/on-government-employment/

    Replies: @EdwardM

  129. @Professional Slav
    @Jack D

    If that was the agreement since 1945, then it's a bit odd Kosovo was supported and then recognized by the West.
    The 90s isn't really ancient history when it comes to Ukrainian/Russian borders. Your own logic dictates that Donbass and Lugansk were Ukranian, until they're not, a bit like the Golan Heights. Also, when people are given a choice between a corrupt shithole and a slightly less corrupt shithole, I'd wager most would choose the latter.
    I want America and my taxes out of there, regardless of what happens to those villages.

    Replies: @Jack D, @Art Deco

    There was no spontaneous uprising by the people of the Donbas and Lugansk. It was all choreographed from Moscow and the “little green men” were Russian soldiers sent from Moscow. And this remains true to this day.

    Putin frankly doesn’t give a shit about the residents of Donbas and Lugansk and their preferences – they are just pawns in his geopolitical game. If he says he does, he says it with the utmost cynicism – he cares in exactly the same way that Hitler cared about the Germans of Sudetenland. If the people of Chechnya preferred a different regime, would Putin be OK with that or would he bomb them flat? We already know the answer to this.

    And the West should care about those villages for the same reason that we should have cared more about the villages of Czechoslovakia in 1938. Putin’s aim is not to take Luhansk – he wants to roll back the lines to 1989. So bye, bye Baltics, Russian tanks in Budapest and Berlin, etc.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    @Jack D

    Putin’s aim is not to take Luhansk – he wants to roll back the lines to 1989. So bye, bye Baltics, Russian tanks in Budapest and Berlin, etc.

    I think there were varying estimates as to the proportion of Soviet Russia's productive capacity which was devoted to the military ca. 1975. The lower bound estimate was 12%. Russia currently devotes 4% of its domestic product to military expenditure. I'm gonna wager VP might have more circumscribed objects than that.

    , @William Badwhite
    @Jack D


    Putin frankly doesn’t give a shit......If he says he does, he says it with the utmost cynicism – he cares...Putin’s aim is...he wants to...
     
    Your ability to read Putin's mind and access his deepest thoughts is impressive.



    we should have cared more about the villages of Czechoslovakia in 1938.
     
    In another of your countless posts, you said your family did not...come here....until after WW2. "We" doesn't mean what you think it does.
    , @Paperback Writer
    @Jack D


    So bye, bye Baltics, Russian tanks in Budapest and Berlin, etc.

     

    LOL. I guess that's why Orban did this.

    https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220201-orban-pledges-cooperation-with-putin-in-storm-of-ukraine-crisis

    Replies: @Jack D

  130. @res
    @Jim Don Bob

    When pages are disappeared I like to post an archive link.
    https://web.archive.org/web/20190428210251/http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/movable_type/2003_archives/001600.html

    The interesting thing about that one is the disappearing did not happen until 2019. I am surprised it lasted through the 2016 election. Even after Steve wrote about it in March, 2016.

    Note that it looks like the whole domain went way, not just that page.

    Replies: @Jim Don Bob

    Steve’s post was the number 1 hit searching for ‘brad delong hillary’ using duckduckgo. It was #13 on the second page of a google search. Hmmmm.

    • Replies: @res
    @Jim Don Bob

    Isn't that an improvement? I thought unz.com had been completely blacklisted by Google. Though IIRC specifying site:unz.com used to make it show hits here show up.

  131. @Jack D
    @Rob

    CDC is located in Atlanta which is 50% black. And Atlanta is a hotspot for educated blacks, who are OTOH the kind of blacks who might get jobs at the CDC (nice govt job with benefits and they won't ease you out for incompetence the way they might in private industry) but OTOH are affirmative action beneficiaries who aren't really as qualified as they appear to be on paper.

    Here is a photo put out by the CDC Foundation (which is somehow part of the CDC):

    https://www.cdcfoundation.org/sites/default/files/images/medshare%201_0.jpg

    With the caption: Recently, our staff volunteered with two organizations here in Atlanta: The Atlanta Community Food Bank and MedShare.

    I think this might give you an idea of what the typical CDC staff employee looks like. Not exactly the white doctors in white lab coats with test tubes you might imagine. If there's anyone I want controlling disease, it's these ladies. They give me such a feeling of confidence. Note the mural in the background, where whites have been written out of history. No white men to be seen anywhere.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Emil Nikola Richard, @res, @Art Deco

    CDC was 32.4% black in 2018. More at
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/they-should-run-psas-encouraging-people-to-call-911-if-they-are-having-a-heart-attack-or-stroke/#comment-3847553

    There is a great deal of variation in demographics for different job categories. See link.

  132. @Jim Don Bob
    @Space Ghost


    The guy is a complete tool who has never made an honest good faith argument in his life.
     
    Au contraire, my friend. DeLong made this excellent assessment of HRC back in 2003 which Steve wrote about here: https://www.unz.com/isteve/ex-clinton-staffer-brad-delongs-post-on-hillarys-management-skills/. For some unknown reason, the link to the page on his website no longer works.

    June 07, 2003

    TIME TO POUND MY HEAD AGAINST THE WALL ONCE AGAIN

    … My two cents’ worth–and I think it is the two cents’ worth of everybody who worked for the Clinton Administration health care reform effort of 1993-1994–is that Hillary Rodham Clinton needs to be kept very far away from the White House for the rest of her life. Heading up health-care reform was the only major administrative job she has ever tried to do. And she was a complete flop at it. She had neither the grasp of policy substance, the managerial skills, nor the political smarts to do the job she was then given. And she wasn’t smart enough to realize that she was in over her head and had to get out of the Health Care Czar role quickly.

    So when senior members of the economic team said that key senators like Daniel Patrick Moynihan would have this-and-that objection, she told them they were disloyal. When junior members of the economic team told her that the Congressional Budget Office would say such-and-such, she told them (wrongly) that her conversations with CBO head Robert Reischauer had already fixed that. When long-time senior hill staffers told her that she was making a dreadful mistake by fighting with rather than reaching out to John Breaux and Jim Cooper, she told them that they did not understand the wave of popular political support the bill would generate. And when substantive objections were raised to the plan by analysts calculating the moral hazard and adverse selection pressures it would put on the nation’s health-care system…

    Hillary Rodham Clinton has already flopped as a senior administrative official in the executive branch–the equivalent of an Undersecretary. Perhaps she will make a good senator. But there is no reason to think that she would be anything but an abysmal president.

    Posted by DeLong at June 7, 2003 10:15 PM | TrackBack

    Replies: @res, @Ben tillman

    All right. Fair enough. He did do something worthwhile.

  133. @Citizen of a Silly Country
    @Henry's Cat

    Steve used to move past noticing. Now, he doesn't. It's reasonable to ask why.

    Regardless, we should all ask ourselves what's the point, what is it that we want to achieve. Steve refuses to answer that simple question.

    His readers should find that odd.

    Replies: @Henry's Cat

    How do you move past citizenism?

    • Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country
    @Henry's Cat

    First, you don't move past something that never worked in the first place. You simply acknowledge its failure.

    As to what I'm trying to do, allow whites who have some pride in their people and are tired of being demonized to do like every other group: organize politically and culturally.

    I don't want anything for whites that every other group already enjoys.

  134. @Jack D
    @Rob

    CDC is located in Atlanta which is 50% black. And Atlanta is a hotspot for educated blacks, who are OTOH the kind of blacks who might get jobs at the CDC (nice govt job with benefits and they won't ease you out for incompetence the way they might in private industry) but OTOH are affirmative action beneficiaries who aren't really as qualified as they appear to be on paper.

    Here is a photo put out by the CDC Foundation (which is somehow part of the CDC):

    https://www.cdcfoundation.org/sites/default/files/images/medshare%201_0.jpg

    With the caption: Recently, our staff volunteered with two organizations here in Atlanta: The Atlanta Community Food Bank and MedShare.

    I think this might give you an idea of what the typical CDC staff employee looks like. Not exactly the white doctors in white lab coats with test tubes you might imagine. If there's anyone I want controlling disease, it's these ladies. They give me such a feeling of confidence. Note the mural in the background, where whites have been written out of history. No white men to be seen anywhere.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Emil Nikola Richard, @res, @Art Deco

    CDC is located in Atlanta which is 50% black.

    The Atlanta metropolitan settlement splays over 10 counties. The population of those counties is about 33% black, quite near the statewide mean. Clayton County is the only black majority county around Atlanta.

    The rap on the CDC of late by researchers who’ve worked with them is that they were dedicated to bureaucratic process no matter what was going on in the wider world (e.g. insisting that research papers be assembled and composed according to stereotype).

    About 6.5% of the research degrees and first-professional degrees in health-related faculties are issued to black students. For master’s degrees, its around 17%. The racial data do not have a background more granular than that, but I’m assuming much of this consists of post-baccalaureate nursing school graduates. The people depicted work for the philanthropic affiliate of the CDC. It’s a fundraising vehicle.

    • Replies: @Hibernian
    @Art Deco

    When I worked at a water filtration plant in Chicago a lot of QC chemists were Black and had degrees, not in chemistry, but in biology, often from Black colleges in the South. I wondered, but was smart enough not to ask, if a fair number of them had been pre meds. One holder of this job, Eugene Sawyer, became Mayor of Chicago by City Council appointment when Harold Washington died. He could not get elected on his own, losing to Richie Daley. One of the two filtration plants was named after Mr. Sawyer.

    , @Jim Don Bob
    @Art Deco


    The people depicted work for the philanthropic affiliate of the CDC. It’s a fundraising vehicle.
     
    Why the hell does a government agency like the CDC have a "philanthropic affiliate" and a "fundraising vehicle"?
  135. @Jim Don Bob
    @res

    Steve's post was the number 1 hit searching for 'brad delong hillary' using duckduckgo. It was #13 on the second page of a google search. Hmmmm.

    Replies: @res

    Isn’t that an improvement? I thought unz.com had been completely blacklisted by Google. Though IIRC specifying site:unz.com used to make it show hits here show up.

  136. @PhysicistDave
    @Anonymous

    Anonymous[352] wrote:


    As an older guy, I’ve found that you can push people around or bullshit them, until you move to strip them of their livelihood. Then things can get very crazy, very quickly.
     
    Yeah.

    I wonder if the ruling Western elites are intentionally inciting civil war or if they are just too stupid to know what they are doing?

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Bardon Kaldian

    Stupid.

  137. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Jack D

    Do you know anybody who works for the CDC?

    I met one once. She was in a bad spot on the hot crazy axis. I am pretty sure she has spent more than a weekend behind bars after confiding in her doctor that she was contemplating suicide. I don't know that for a fact that I could swear to in court, but she was precisely exactly that type.

    She had a management job. Probably salary grade 16.

    Replies: @Alrenous

    “For example, it’s one thing “to know” that bureaucrats can’t be fired. It’s a totally different thing to really understand what this means in a work environment. The change in dynamic in the workplace is incredible. I have colleagues who do no work at all for weeks at a time and everyone knows it.”

    “If someone really really screws up, they will not be given any new work. That’s about the extent of accountability.”
    https://foseti.wordpress.com/2011/02/02/on-government-employment/

    • Replies: @EdwardM
    @Alrenous

    Or the classic government solution of trying to induce him to leave your department, to become someone else's problem, to be replaced with someone who might possibly achieve something, at least for awhile. That inducement is usually a promotion.

  138. @Jack D
    @Professional Slav

    There was no spontaneous uprising by the people of the Donbas and Lugansk. It was all choreographed from Moscow and the "little green men" were Russian soldiers sent from Moscow. And this remains true to this day.

    Putin frankly doesn't give a shit about the residents of Donbas and Lugansk and their preferences - they are just pawns in his geopolitical game. If he says he does, he says it with the utmost cynicism - he cares in exactly the same way that Hitler cared about the Germans of Sudetenland. If the people of Chechnya preferred a different regime, would Putin be OK with that or would he bomb them flat? We already know the answer to this.

    And the West should care about those villages for the same reason that we should have cared more about the villages of Czechoslovakia in 1938. Putin's aim is not to take Luhansk - he wants to roll back the lines to 1989. So bye, bye Baltics, Russian tanks in Budapest and Berlin, etc.

    Replies: @Art Deco, @William Badwhite, @Paperback Writer

    Putin’s aim is not to take Luhansk – he wants to roll back the lines to 1989. So bye, bye Baltics, Russian tanks in Budapest and Berlin, etc.

    I think there were varying estimates as to the proportion of Soviet Russia’s productive capacity which was devoted to the military ca. 1975. The lower bound estimate was 12%. Russia currently devotes 4% of its domestic product to military expenditure. I’m gonna wager VP might have more circumscribed objects than that.

  139. @Jack D
    @Professional Slav

    There was no spontaneous uprising by the people of the Donbas and Lugansk. It was all choreographed from Moscow and the "little green men" were Russian soldiers sent from Moscow. And this remains true to this day.

    Putin frankly doesn't give a shit about the residents of Donbas and Lugansk and their preferences - they are just pawns in his geopolitical game. If he says he does, he says it with the utmost cynicism - he cares in exactly the same way that Hitler cared about the Germans of Sudetenland. If the people of Chechnya preferred a different regime, would Putin be OK with that or would he bomb them flat? We already know the answer to this.

    And the West should care about those villages for the same reason that we should have cared more about the villages of Czechoslovakia in 1938. Putin's aim is not to take Luhansk - he wants to roll back the lines to 1989. So bye, bye Baltics, Russian tanks in Budapest and Berlin, etc.

    Replies: @Art Deco, @William Badwhite, @Paperback Writer

    Putin frankly doesn’t give a shit……If he says he does, he says it with the utmost cynicism – he cares…Putin’s aim is…he wants to…

    Your ability to read Putin’s mind and access his deepest thoughts is impressive.

    we should have cared more about the villages of Czechoslovakia in 1938.

    In another of your countless posts, you said your family did not…come here….until after WW2. “We” doesn’t mean what you think it does.

    • LOL: Twinkie
  140. @Henry's Cat
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    How do you move past citizenism?

    Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country

    First, you don’t move past something that never worked in the first place. You simply acknowledge its failure.

    As to what I’m trying to do, allow whites who have some pride in their people and are tired of being demonized to do like every other group: organize politically and culturally.

    I don’t want anything for whites that every other group already enjoys.

  141. @Professional Slav
    @Jack D

    If that was the agreement since 1945, then it's a bit odd Kosovo was supported and then recognized by the West.
    The 90s isn't really ancient history when it comes to Ukrainian/Russian borders. Your own logic dictates that Donbass and Lugansk were Ukranian, until they're not, a bit like the Golan Heights. Also, when people are given a choice between a corrupt shithole and a slightly less corrupt shithole, I'd wager most would choose the latter.
    I want America and my taxes out of there, regardless of what happens to those villages.

    Replies: @Jack D, @Art Deco

    then it’s a bit odd Kosovo was supported and then recognized by the West.

    No, it isn’t. Yugoslavia was already in fragments and Serbia and it’s associated militias were already responsible for a six digit death toll.

  142. @dearieme
    @PhysicistDave

    religions ... tend to round off their rough edges over time and become just quaintly charming residues of an earlier age

    That's not an account of the Roman Catholic Church of the Medieval, Renaissance, and Reformation periods that I recognise.

    Replies: @Hibernian, @PhysicistDave

    During the Reformation / Counter Reformation period a lot of rough edges were knocked off, otherwise we may well have become a quaintly charming residue or just disappeared,

    The Gates of Hell will not prevail against the One, Holy, Catholic, and Apostolic Church.

  143. @Art Deco
    @Jack D

    CDC is located in Atlanta which is 50% black.

    The Atlanta metropolitan settlement splays over 10 counties. The population of those counties is about 33% black, quite near the statewide mean. Clayton County is the only black majority county around Atlanta.

    The rap on the CDC of late by researchers who've worked with them is that they were dedicated to bureaucratic process no matter what was going on in the wider world (e.g. insisting that research papers be assembled and composed according to stereotype).

    About 6.5% of the research degrees and first-professional degrees in health-related faculties are issued to black students. For master's degrees, its around 17%. The racial data do not have a background more granular than that, but I'm assuming much of this consists of post-baccalaureate nursing school graduates. The people depicted work for the philanthropic affiliate of the CDC. It's a fundraising vehicle.

    Replies: @Hibernian, @Jim Don Bob

    When I worked at a water filtration plant in Chicago a lot of QC chemists were Black and had degrees, not in chemistry, but in biology, often from Black colleges in the South. I wondered, but was smart enough not to ask, if a fair number of them had been pre meds. One holder of this job, Eugene Sawyer, became Mayor of Chicago by City Council appointment when Harold Washington died. He could not get elected on his own, losing to Richie Daley. One of the two filtration plants was named after Mr. Sawyer.

  144. @Hibernian
    @PhysicistDave

    Are you in favor of returning a few Texas counties along the Rio Grande to Mexico?

    Replies: @Brutusale, @PhysicistDave

    Hibernian asked me:

    Are you in favor of returning a few Texas counties along the Rio Grande to Mexico?

    If most of those residents want their counties to return to Mexico, sure, why not?

    When most of the people of the Ukraine wanted independence from Moscow, Moscow let them go.

    Now most of the people of the Donbass want to be free of Kiev. So why shouldn’t Kiev let them go?

    You and the other Western militarists seem to be pushing a rather obvious double standard here.

    I am in favor of secession anywhere and everywhere that the people want to be free of some centralized authority — Brexit, the breakup of the USSR, the breakup of Ukraine, etc. By all means let provinces secede from countries, let cities secede from provinces, let neighborhoods secede from cities, and so on.

    Why not just try freedom? Some of the most creative periods of human history were times of independent city-states.

    And, yes, if any states of the USA want to secede, I certainly think they should be allowed to do so. (I do not think the oligarchs will let them secede, but then I rarely agree with the oligarchs.)

    #LetTheDonbassBeFree

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @PhysicistDave


    Now most of the people of the Donbass want to be free of Kiev.
     
    So it's your position that this is a spontaneous uprising by the people of the Donbas and is not being orchestrated from Moscow? That's laughable. Not even (especially not) the Russians believe this. They all understand perfectly well that it's a ploy but they admire ploys if they are successful. They snicker into their sleeves when they see naïve Westerners like you actually believe cock and bull stories like this.

    Replies: @Veteran Aryan, @Hibernian, @PhysicistDave

  145. @dearieme
    @PhysicistDave

    religions ... tend to round off their rough edges over time and become just quaintly charming residues of an earlier age

    That's not an account of the Roman Catholic Church of the Medieval, Renaissance, and Reformation periods that I recognise.

    Replies: @Hibernian, @PhysicistDave

    dearieme wrote to me:

    [Dave] religions … tend to round off their rough edges over time and become just quaintly charming residues of an earlier age

    [dearieme] That’s not an account of the Roman Catholic Church of the Medieval, Renaissance, and Reformation periods that I recognise.

    Well, I had in mind a situation such as now obtains in the USA where there is religious freedom.

    Even in the case of Catholicism, pre-Reformation Catholicism was certainly corrupt but not as crazy as the early church: i.e., there was not routine speaking in tongues in the pre-Reformation churches.

    As I indicated, I am a rather passionate advocate of telling the truth even if the sky falls, which automatically makes me hostile to any organized religion. No religion encourages its adherents to try to aggressively poke holes in the creeds of that religion.

    But as a scientist, it is my job to seek out situation in which our existing theories fail, so as to produce better theories..

    That, fundamentally, is the source of the innate hostility between science and religion. It is not that scientists “believe” in certain doctrines — evolution, a universe that is billions of years old, or whatever — that contradict religious dogmas. No, the hostility rather is that scientists do not believe in “belief”: science progresses by demolishing existing doctrines, not by propping them up.

  146. @Muggles
    @Johann Ricke

    Pig bites man?

    Pig bites Icahn?

    Icahn bites pig, but only if pig has nice life before being slaughtered?

    Wall St. pig fights for actual pigs?

    Big pig champions small pigs?

    Pigs demand Carl Icahn be slaughtered too.

    Vegans demand Icahn stop eating pigs regardless.

    MacDonald's to Icahn and pigs, the McRib is here to stay...

    Replies: @Jack D, @Escher

    Ironic that a Jewish man is pushing for changes to the pork supply chain.

    • Replies: @EdwardM
    @Escher

    I think it's great that he's subordinating his personal beliefs to his fiduciary responsibility to his fellow shareholders.

    Whoops:


    "Animals are one of the things I feel really emotional about,” Icahn previously told The Journal.
     
    Plus he's not even a shareholder (beyond a token $50k stake taken presumably only so he has standing to take this action).

    Welcome to current-year America. A billionaire gets to indulge his emotions and fiddle with a great brand, to hell with widowed grandmas whose modest nest eggs are comprised of blue-chip stocks like this.

    , @Brutusale
    @Escher

    You've obviously never been to a Chinese restaurant on Friday night. Or a seafood buffet.

    Kosher is left at the door.

    , @J.Ross
    @Escher

    Ironic that a pushy idiotic oligarch who doesn't know what he's talking about and inherited undeserved power wants to tell you how to live your life? What part of that is ironic? Do we need to define irony for you?

  147. @Peter Lund
    @Cato


    Singapore and Switzerland perhaps the most conspicuous. In the former case, a relatively authoritarian government; in the latter case, geographical separation and very high levels of regional autonomy.
     
    And in both cases, not much redistribution between the ethnicities. That's also why the EU works (for now, at least): very little redistribution between the member states. Still, there is too much redistribution between the states and too much of the EU budget is wasted. I want less spending on farm subsidies and more on defense and Frontex -- which is actually the direction we are moving in. Unfortunately, we also moving towards more redistribution between member states (from well-run economies to Southern basket cases).

    Replies: @Cato

    I wasn’t aware that the Schengen border enforcement was called Frontex, but yes, I agree, the EU needs border enforcement even more desperately than the US needs it.

    Redistribution can be justified if it is directed towards capabilities-increasing (I sound like Amartya Sen) in a population capable of increasing its capabilities (hmm… sounds much less like Sen).

    Greece is the most flagrant parasite on EU redistribution. My view on Greece has, for years, been that it should be removed from the EuroZone — if you can’t collect taxes, you don’t belong in the same grouping as Germany. Faced with expulsion, Greece might get its act together. If it couldn’t, it would go back to the drachma and become the inexpensive vacation destination of choice (and I could buy that nice place I’ve been eyeing on Kos!).

  148. @kaganovitch
    @Cato

    in the latter case, geographical separation and very high levels of regional autonomy.

    The USA as originally conceived had a lot of regional autonomy as well.

    Replies: @Cato

    The USA as originally conceived had a lot of regional autonomy

    One of the brilliant ideas of our ancestors. Imagine if we could combine regional autonomy with the ability to secede while retaining the freedom to settle where one sees fit — if neighborhoods are no longer in harmony with our county, they could secede from the county to form their own, and like-minded persons would have no obstacles to joining them. The US would become a conglomeration of thousands of autonomous and internally harmonious counties.

  149. @Cato
    @Colin Wright


    How would we know how multi-racial societies would work — at least, egalitarian ones? None ever has — and at the moment, we’re demonstrating that we won’t be the first.
     
    If we think of multi-ethnic rather than multi-racial, there are some successful countries: Singapore and Switzerland perhaps the most conspicuous. In the former case, a relatively authoritarian government; in the latter case, geographical separation and very high levels of regional autonomy. In our country, the left seems to be pushing toward the Singapore model, and the right (at least many of the rightists commenting here) seems to be pushing toward separatism.

    Replies: @kaganovitch, @Peter Lund, @Colin Wright

    ‘we think of multi-ethnic rather than multi-racial, there are some successful countries: Singapore and Switzerland perhaps the most conspicuous…’

    Intelligent counter-examples, but in the case of Singapore, it always was — and still is — a matter of the Chinese will share — on their terms.

    Switzerland? Don’t make me laugh. Mountaineers from adjacent valleys are ‘multi-ethnic’ because some speak French and others speak German?

    These are ‘examples’ that prove just how slight and/or irrelevant the differences need to be. Now, take your basic German Jew and your basic ghetto Negro and explain how this is going to be ‘egalitarian.’

    Obviously, someone’s going to have to be in the driver’s seat, and — as we’re seeing — even when it’s the Jew it don’t work too good.

    • Agree: West reanimator
  150. @Alrenous
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    "For example, it’s one thing "to know" that bureaucrats can’t be fired. It’s a totally different thing to really understand what this means in a work environment. The change in dynamic in the workplace is incredible. I have colleagues who do no work at all for weeks at a time and everyone knows it."

    "If someone really really screws up, they will not be given any new work. That’s about the extent of accountability."
    https://foseti.wordpress.com/2011/02/02/on-government-employment/

    Replies: @EdwardM

    Or the classic government solution of trying to induce him to leave your department, to become someone else’s problem, to be replaced with someone who might possibly achieve something, at least for awhile. That inducement is usually a promotion.

    • Agree: Alrenous
  151. @Escher
    @Muggles

    Ironic that a Jewish man is pushing for changes to the pork supply chain.

    Replies: @EdwardM, @Brutusale, @J.Ross

    I think it’s great that he’s subordinating his personal beliefs to his fiduciary responsibility to his fellow shareholders.

    Whoops:

    “Animals are one of the things I feel really emotional about,” Icahn previously told The Journal.

    Plus he’s not even a shareholder (beyond a token \$50k stake taken presumably only so he has standing to take this action).

    Welcome to current-year America. A billionaire gets to indulge his emotions and fiddle with a great brand, to hell with widowed grandmas whose modest nest eggs are comprised of blue-chip stocks like this.

  152. @Escher
    @Muggles

    Ironic that a Jewish man is pushing for changes to the pork supply chain.

    Replies: @EdwardM, @Brutusale, @J.Ross

    You’ve obviously never been to a Chinese restaurant on Friday night. Or a seafood buffet.

    Kosher is left at the door.

  153. @Escher
    @Muggles

    Ironic that a Jewish man is pushing for changes to the pork supply chain.

    Replies: @EdwardM, @Brutusale, @J.Ross

    Ironic that a pushy idiotic oligarch who doesn’t know what he’s talking about and inherited undeserved power wants to tell you how to live your life? What part of that is ironic? Do we need to define irony for you?

  154. @PhysicistDave
    @Hibernian

    Hibernian asked me:


    Are you in favor of returning a few Texas counties along the Rio Grande to Mexico?
     
    If most of those residents want their counties to return to Mexico, sure, why not?

    When most of the people of the Ukraine wanted independence from Moscow, Moscow let them go.

    Now most of the people of the Donbass want to be free of Kiev. So why shouldn't Kiev let them go?

    You and the other Western militarists seem to be pushing a rather obvious double standard here.

    I am in favor of secession anywhere and everywhere that the people want to be free of some centralized authority -- Brexit, the breakup of the USSR, the breakup of Ukraine, etc. By all means let provinces secede from countries, let cities secede from provinces, let neighborhoods secede from cities, and so on.

    Why not just try freedom? Some of the most creative periods of human history were times of independent city-states.

    And, yes, if any states of the USA want to secede, I certainly think they should be allowed to do so. (I do not think the oligarchs will let them secede, but then I rarely agree with the oligarchs.)

    #LetTheDonbassBeFree

    Replies: @Jack D

    Now most of the people of the Donbass want to be free of Kiev.

    So it’s your position that this is a spontaneous uprising by the people of the Donbas and is not being orchestrated from Moscow? That’s laughable. Not even (especially not) the Russians believe this. They all understand perfectly well that it’s a ploy but they admire ploys if they are successful. They snicker into their sleeves when they see naïve Westerners like you actually believe cock and bull stories like this.

    • Replies: @Veteran Aryan
    @Jack D


    Not even (especially not) the Russians believe this.
     
    Very wise of the Russians to appoint an impartial observer like yourself as their spokesperson.
    , @Hibernian
    @Jack D

    I'm against American troops going to the Ukraine but I'm in favor of military and humanitarian aid. We don't have a treaty obligation to defend Ukrainian territory as if it's our own and that's a good thing. We have a treaty obligation to Poland and other states in NATO and we must uphold it.

    I believe the primary military mission of the United States is to defend the freedom of the seas and to project power by sea or air, as the case may be, when it is absolutely necessary and therefore justified. I believe an attack on any of the NATO states would be such a case. Hopefully, Russia will be so bogged down in the Ukraine that they won't dare attack NATO.

    Replies: @Jack D

    , @PhysicistDave
    @Jack D

    Jack D asked me:


    So it’s your position that this is a spontaneous uprising by the people of the Donbas and is not being orchestrated from Moscow?
     
    All of the evidence I have seen is that the people of the Donbass do not want to be subject to Kiev. The Minsk accords agreed to grant autonomy to the Donbass, but Kiev has openly flouted those accords.

    You doubt that? Fine. Let's hold a plebiscite in the Donbass to decide.

    I am pretty sure Putin will be agreeable to that and Kiev will not be.

    Jack D also wrote:

    Not even (especially not) the Russians believe this.
     
    The US overthrew the elected government of Ukraine in 2014 with the Maidan con game: this is not mere speculation -- the Russians released audio of dumb little Vicky Nuland planning the coup (dumb little Vicky is so stupid that she planned the coup on an unencrypted communications system!). And of course, Senile Joe put evil little Vicky back in the State Department.

    Putin is not a saint. But the Kiev regime is a US puppet state that replaced the legitimate government of the Ukraine, which was -- quite wisely, given their geographic location -- friendly to Moscow.

    And now innocent people are going to die because the US cannot avoid playing the "Great Game" on the borders of Russia.

    Thank you, Victoria Nuland -- may you rot in Hell.

    Replies: @Wizard of Oz

  155. Hm, I wonder if Ms Cook could look at this graph (possibly the 2nd most important graph in the world) then devise a hypothesis?

  156. @Art Deco
    @Jack D

    CDC is located in Atlanta which is 50% black.

    The Atlanta metropolitan settlement splays over 10 counties. The population of those counties is about 33% black, quite near the statewide mean. Clayton County is the only black majority county around Atlanta.

    The rap on the CDC of late by researchers who've worked with them is that they were dedicated to bureaucratic process no matter what was going on in the wider world (e.g. insisting that research papers be assembled and composed according to stereotype).

    About 6.5% of the research degrees and first-professional degrees in health-related faculties are issued to black students. For master's degrees, its around 17%. The racial data do not have a background more granular than that, but I'm assuming much of this consists of post-baccalaureate nursing school graduates. The people depicted work for the philanthropic affiliate of the CDC. It's a fundraising vehicle.

    Replies: @Hibernian, @Jim Don Bob

    The people depicted work for the philanthropic affiliate of the CDC. It’s a fundraising vehicle.

    Why the hell does a government agency like the CDC have a “philanthropic affiliate” and a “fundraising vehicle”?

  157. @Jack D
    @Professional Slav

    There was no spontaneous uprising by the people of the Donbas and Lugansk. It was all choreographed from Moscow and the "little green men" were Russian soldiers sent from Moscow. And this remains true to this day.

    Putin frankly doesn't give a shit about the residents of Donbas and Lugansk and their preferences - they are just pawns in his geopolitical game. If he says he does, he says it with the utmost cynicism - he cares in exactly the same way that Hitler cared about the Germans of Sudetenland. If the people of Chechnya preferred a different regime, would Putin be OK with that or would he bomb them flat? We already know the answer to this.

    And the West should care about those villages for the same reason that we should have cared more about the villages of Czechoslovakia in 1938. Putin's aim is not to take Luhansk - he wants to roll back the lines to 1989. So bye, bye Baltics, Russian tanks in Budapest and Berlin, etc.

    Replies: @Art Deco, @William Badwhite, @Paperback Writer

    So bye, bye Baltics, Russian tanks in Budapest and Berlin, etc.

    LOL. I guess that’s why Orban did this.

    https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220201-orban-pledges-cooperation-with-putin-in-storm-of-ukraine-crisis

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Paperback Writer

    Orban thinks he can be Putin's friend while maintaining some independence. Kind of like the relationship between Adm. Horthy and Hitler. How did that work out for Horthy?

    Lukashenko in Belarus thought he had the same deal but now he realizes that the price of staying the nominal head of state is that he is Putin's bitch.

    Replies: @Art Deco, @Paperback Writer

  158. @Jack D
    @PhysicistDave


    Now most of the people of the Donbass want to be free of Kiev.
     
    So it's your position that this is a spontaneous uprising by the people of the Donbas and is not being orchestrated from Moscow? That's laughable. Not even (especially not) the Russians believe this. They all understand perfectly well that it's a ploy but they admire ploys if they are successful. They snicker into their sleeves when they see naïve Westerners like you actually believe cock and bull stories like this.

    Replies: @Veteran Aryan, @Hibernian, @PhysicistDave

    Not even (especially not) the Russians believe this.

    Very wise of the Russians to appoint an impartial observer like yourself as their spokesperson.

  159. @Paperback Writer
    @Jack D


    So bye, bye Baltics, Russian tanks in Budapest and Berlin, etc.

     

    LOL. I guess that's why Orban did this.

    https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220201-orban-pledges-cooperation-with-putin-in-storm-of-ukraine-crisis

    Replies: @Jack D

    Orban thinks he can be Putin’s friend while maintaining some independence. Kind of like the relationship between Adm. Horthy and Hitler. How did that work out for Horthy?

    Lukashenko in Belarus thought he had the same deal but now he realizes that the price of staying the nominal head of state is that he is Putin’s bitch.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    @Jack D

    Huh? Russia has no common border with Hungary. Hungary actually is a member of NATO. And what objects might Putin have which would be served by occupying Hungary, which is what was done by Germany 14 months before the end of the war? (While we're at it, what was the alternative, during the period running from 1937 to 1944, to accommodating Germany? Hungary's not located next to Wales).

    Replies: @Jack D

    , @Paperback Writer
    @Jack D

    Hitler Hitler Hitler. One would think you have some kind of obsession with that collection of letters.

    It's always 1938. There's more to the map than Munich, my boy.

    I doubt Lukashenko ever thought he was anything more than Putin's bitch. But the Germans might have entertained the fantasy they are an independent country once. No more!

  160. @Jack D
    @Paperback Writer

    Orban thinks he can be Putin's friend while maintaining some independence. Kind of like the relationship between Adm. Horthy and Hitler. How did that work out for Horthy?

    Lukashenko in Belarus thought he had the same deal but now he realizes that the price of staying the nominal head of state is that he is Putin's bitch.

    Replies: @Art Deco, @Paperback Writer

    Huh? Russia has no common border with Hungary. Hungary actually is a member of NATO. And what objects might Putin have which would be served by occupying Hungary, which is what was done by Germany 14 months before the end of the war? (While we’re at it, what was the alternative, during the period running from 1937 to 1944, to accommodating Germany? Hungary’s not located next to Wales).

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Art Deco


    Russia has no common border with Hungary.
     
    And yet Russian tanks rolled into Budapest in 1945 and more in 1956 and did not leave until 1991. I guess they flew them in.

    Replies: @William Badwhite

  161. @Jack D
    @Paperback Writer

    Orban thinks he can be Putin's friend while maintaining some independence. Kind of like the relationship between Adm. Horthy and Hitler. How did that work out for Horthy?

    Lukashenko in Belarus thought he had the same deal but now he realizes that the price of staying the nominal head of state is that he is Putin's bitch.

    Replies: @Art Deco, @Paperback Writer

    Hitler Hitler Hitler. One would think you have some kind of obsession with that collection of letters.

    It’s always 1938. There’s more to the map than Munich, my boy.

    I doubt Lukashenko ever thought he was anything more than Putin’s bitch. But the Germans might have entertained the fantasy they are an independent country once. No more!

  162. @Art Deco
    @Jack D

    Huh? Russia has no common border with Hungary. Hungary actually is a member of NATO. And what objects might Putin have which would be served by occupying Hungary, which is what was done by Germany 14 months before the end of the war? (While we're at it, what was the alternative, during the period running from 1937 to 1944, to accommodating Germany? Hungary's not located next to Wales).

    Replies: @Jack D

    Russia has no common border with Hungary.

    And yet Russian tanks rolled into Budapest in 1945 and more in 1956 and did not leave until 1991. I guess they flew them in.

    • Replies: @William Badwhite
    @Jack D

    Will you please make time to hijack a different thread with your obsessions?



    And yet Russian Soviet tanks rolled into Budapest in 1945 and more in 1956 and did not leave until 1991.
     
    FIFY.

    I guess they flew them in.
     
    More likely they rolled through the Soviet Republic of Ukraine.
  163. @Jack D
    @PhysicistDave


    Now most of the people of the Donbass want to be free of Kiev.
     
    So it's your position that this is a spontaneous uprising by the people of the Donbas and is not being orchestrated from Moscow? That's laughable. Not even (especially not) the Russians believe this. They all understand perfectly well that it's a ploy but they admire ploys if they are successful. They snicker into their sleeves when they see naïve Westerners like you actually believe cock and bull stories like this.

    Replies: @Veteran Aryan, @Hibernian, @PhysicistDave

    I’m against American troops going to the Ukraine but I’m in favor of military and humanitarian aid. We don’t have a treaty obligation to defend Ukrainian territory as if it’s our own and that’s a good thing. We have a treaty obligation to Poland and other states in NATO and we must uphold it.

    I believe the primary military mission of the United States is to defend the freedom of the seas and to project power by sea or air, as the case may be, when it is absolutely necessary and therefore justified. I believe an attack on any of the NATO states would be such a case. Hopefully, Russia will be so bogged down in the Ukraine that they won’t dare attack NATO.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Hibernian

    I don't disagree with you but I don't feel it is necessary to embrace Russian propaganda in order for the US not to defend Ukrainian territory. Biden has already indicated that he is not going to defend Ukraine with American troops. No one is proposing that the US defend Ukraine with American troops.

    But some people must be bothered by Putin's immorality on some level and in order to resolve the cognitive dissonance that they feel, they feel that they have to buy into Putin's lies in order not to feel guilty about abandoning the Ukrainians to their fate. That's not necessary. We can see the truth and yet feel that we're not willing to start WWIII over this and react only with sanctions and other measures. This is probably not going to deter Putin but it won't encourage him either.

  164. @Hibernian
    @Jack D

    I'm against American troops going to the Ukraine but I'm in favor of military and humanitarian aid. We don't have a treaty obligation to defend Ukrainian territory as if it's our own and that's a good thing. We have a treaty obligation to Poland and other states in NATO and we must uphold it.

    I believe the primary military mission of the United States is to defend the freedom of the seas and to project power by sea or air, as the case may be, when it is absolutely necessary and therefore justified. I believe an attack on any of the NATO states would be such a case. Hopefully, Russia will be so bogged down in the Ukraine that they won't dare attack NATO.

    Replies: @Jack D

    I don’t disagree with you but I don’t feel it is necessary to embrace Russian propaganda in order for the US not to defend Ukrainian territory. Biden has already indicated that he is not going to defend Ukraine with American troops. No one is proposing that the US defend Ukraine with American troops.

    But some people must be bothered by Putin’s immorality on some level and in order to resolve the cognitive dissonance that they feel, they feel that they have to buy into Putin’s lies in order not to feel guilty about abandoning the Ukrainians to their fate. That’s not necessary. We can see the truth and yet feel that we’re not willing to start WWIII over this and react only with sanctions and other measures. This is probably not going to deter Putin but it won’t encourage him either.

  165. @Jack D
    @PhysicistDave


    Now most of the people of the Donbass want to be free of Kiev.
     
    So it's your position that this is a spontaneous uprising by the people of the Donbas and is not being orchestrated from Moscow? That's laughable. Not even (especially not) the Russians believe this. They all understand perfectly well that it's a ploy but they admire ploys if they are successful. They snicker into their sleeves when they see naïve Westerners like you actually believe cock and bull stories like this.

    Replies: @Veteran Aryan, @Hibernian, @PhysicistDave

    Jack D asked me:

    So it’s your position that this is a spontaneous uprising by the people of the Donbas and is not being orchestrated from Moscow?

    All of the evidence I have seen is that the people of the Donbass do not want to be subject to Kiev. The Minsk accords agreed to grant autonomy to the Donbass, but Kiev has openly flouted those accords.

    You doubt that? Fine. Let’s hold a plebiscite in the Donbass to decide.

    I am pretty sure Putin will be agreeable to that and Kiev will not be.

    Jack D also wrote:

    Not even (especially not) the Russians believe this.

    The US overthrew the elected government of Ukraine in 2014 with the Maidan con game: this is not mere speculation — the Russians released audio of dumb little Vicky Nuland planning the coup (dumb little Vicky is so stupid that she planned the coup on an unencrypted communications system!). And of course, Senile Joe put evil little Vicky back in the State Department.

    Putin is not a saint. But the Kiev regime is a US puppet state that replaced the legitimate government of the Ukraine, which was — quite wisely, given their geographic location — friendly to Moscow.

    And now innocent people are going to die because the US cannot avoid playing the “Great Game” on the borders of Russia.

    Thank you, Victoria Nuland — may you rot in Hell.

    • Agree: Jim Don Bob
    • Replies: @Wizard of Oz
    @PhysicistDave

    If you believe what you say about Maidan and the attitude of most Russian speakers you are misinformed I believe from well informed proe with Ukrainan family (where most people speak Russian). Also the problem with running elections or plebiscites in the Donbass oblation is that the Russians refused to remove their troops and let independent peacekeepers ensure fairness. It was Russia not Ukraine that was responsible. I'm pretty close to being a Mearsheimer realist on Ukraine, like Ron Unz, and he doesn't regard Maidan as being an American op.

  166. @Citizen of a Silly Country
    @ScarletNumber

    Steve's not a coward. Steve has stuck to his guns and told the truth for 20+ years at great cost to his career.

    No, not a coward.

    That said, Steve doesn't like the obvious conclusions of his work. He used to proscribe solutions - the Sailer Strategy or Citizenism - but he avoids that now. To be honest, I don't know what he's trying to achieve anymore. I don't think that he does either. He likes looking into these things and being the clever guy who points out who the system is wrong, as though no one can see the same thing. But he won't take that next step.

    Why?

    I don't know, but I don't think that it's conventional cowardice. Steve's motivations for keeping his head in the sand seems personal. Regardless, I'm fine with Steve doing what he does. I just post to push readers to move past Steve's intellectual dead-end. I'd say that Steve is just running out the clock, but I suspect that there's more to it. Then again, Murray acts the same way, and there's no deep, dark secret to his motivations. He's just an elitist. Maybe, that's Steve as well.

    Replies: @James B. Shearer

    “… To be honest, I don’t know what he’s trying to achieve anymore. I don’t think that he does either. ..”

    I expect trying to earn a living is in there somewhere.

  167. @Jack D
    @Art Deco


    Russia has no common border with Hungary.
     
    And yet Russian tanks rolled into Budapest in 1945 and more in 1956 and did not leave until 1991. I guess they flew them in.

    Replies: @William Badwhite

    Will you please make time to hijack a different thread with your obsessions?

    And yet Russian Soviet tanks rolled into Budapest in 1945 and more in 1956 and did not leave until 1991.

    FIFY.

    I guess they flew them in.

    More likely they rolled through the Soviet Republic of Ukraine.

  168. OT:

    • Replies: @MEH 0910
    @MEH 0910

    https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1497247551384432649

    https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1497291085617446916

  169. @PhysicistDave
    @Jack D

    Jack D wrote to me:


    Putin would also be correct if he pointed out that Alaska was a Russian speaking territory until 1867.
     
    Except that the Donbass is Russian-speaking now.

    Like kinda a big difference, doncha think?

    The issue is simply popular sovereignty -- are people entitled to choose their government now?

    Anyone favoring anything that even approximates democracy has to support the liberation fo the Donbass.

    That Putin and Xi will thereby make the ruling Western elites look like ignorant impotent fools is merely a pleasant side benefit.

    We are seeing the beginning of a New World Order indeed, just not the one the Western oligarchs had planned on.

    I'm thinking I need to brush up on my high-school Russian, not to mention my rudimentary Mandarin.

    Replies: @Hibernian, @Wizard of Oz

    Too much is meant of Eastern Ukraine having more Russian speakers. Most Ukrainians are primrily Russian speakers including President Zelensky. It doesn’t meant they wanted to become dominated by Russia. Would Swedish speaking Finns want Sweden to take over? And so on for many similar cases.

  170. @PhysicistDave
    @Jack D

    Jack D asked me:


    So it’s your position that this is a spontaneous uprising by the people of the Donbas and is not being orchestrated from Moscow?
     
    All of the evidence I have seen is that the people of the Donbass do not want to be subject to Kiev. The Minsk accords agreed to grant autonomy to the Donbass, but Kiev has openly flouted those accords.

    You doubt that? Fine. Let's hold a plebiscite in the Donbass to decide.

    I am pretty sure Putin will be agreeable to that and Kiev will not be.

    Jack D also wrote:

    Not even (especially not) the Russians believe this.
     
    The US overthrew the elected government of Ukraine in 2014 with the Maidan con game: this is not mere speculation -- the Russians released audio of dumb little Vicky Nuland planning the coup (dumb little Vicky is so stupid that she planned the coup on an unencrypted communications system!). And of course, Senile Joe put evil little Vicky back in the State Department.

    Putin is not a saint. But the Kiev regime is a US puppet state that replaced the legitimate government of the Ukraine, which was -- quite wisely, given their geographic location -- friendly to Moscow.

    And now innocent people are going to die because the US cannot avoid playing the "Great Game" on the borders of Russia.

    Thank you, Victoria Nuland -- may you rot in Hell.

    Replies: @Wizard of Oz

    If you believe what you say about Maidan and the attitude of most Russian speakers you are misinformed I believe from well informed proe with Ukrainan family (where most people speak Russian). Also the problem with running elections or plebiscites in the Donbass oblation is that the Russians refused to remove their troops and let independent peacekeepers ensure fairness. It was Russia not Ukraine that was responsible. I’m pretty close to being a Mearsheimer realist on Ukraine, like Ron Unz, and he doesn’t regard Maidan as being an American op.

  171. @MEH 0910
    OT:
    https://twitter.com/katieleebarlow/status/1496884458707841024

    Replies: @MEH 0910


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