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Boris Johnson's Cornflake Packet Theory of I.Q.
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The future Prime Minister explains in 2013 how life is like a packet of cornflakes:

 
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  1. “Whatever you may think of the value of IQ tests it is surely relevant to a conversation about equality that as many as 16% of our species have an IQ below 85 while about 2% …”

    Of our species, yes, but worldwide, isn’t it closer to 50%?

    • Agree: Ben tillman
    • LOL: AndrewR
    • Replies: @Rob McX
    @jon


    Of our species, yes, but worldwide, isn’t it closer to 50%?
     
    And rising fast.

    https://www.unz.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/worlds-most-important-graph-2017-f.png
    , @AnotherDad
    @jon


    Of our species, yes, but worldwide, isn’t it closer to 50%?
     
    Not there yet but rising fast!
    , @Charlotte
    @jon

    Over 50%, according to this study reported on by James Thompson, which put global IQ at an undistinguished 82 https://www.unz.com/jthompson/world-iq-82/?highlight=World+iq.

  2. Maybe there is something cultural that I am missing, because otherwise cornflakes seems like a really silly analogy for politician on the brink of becoming Prime Minister.

    • Replies: @Alec Leamas (hard at work)
    @jon


    Maybe there is something cultural that I am missing, because otherwise cornflakes seems like a really silly analogy for politician on the brink of becoming Prime Minister.
     
    I suppose the Tories in Britain are associated with a real aristocracy that existed within memory for many, (and, of course, Johnson and Cameron and the gang were quite privileged) so perhaps the challenge is to seem relatable and speak in everyman terms?
    , @Inquiring Mind
    @jon

    C'mon, iSteve's post is on the level of Anderson Cooper not understanding what Jacob Blake, Sr. was saying about people lying about enjoying Brussels sprouts.

    What Boris is saying that if you have a more laissez-faire unfettered-competition economic systems, you will see a greater income and wealth gap because people vary greatly in innate ability.

    He wasn't arguing for socialism but for socialism lite, which is a logical endpoint to admitting that IQ has a strong genetic component that cannot be leveled by fully funding Head Start, combatting systemic racism and all the usual suspect social policies.

    If we admit that people are not equal in their abilities to work hard, plan ahead, and not do stupid and dangerous things on impulse, it becomes axiomatic that 1) we need rigorous enforcement of laws against violent acts and activities leading to such acts, something almost everyone here agrees upon, 2) we need some manner of safety net/economic boost to people, which not all, but many around here agree with in opposition to the pure libertarian position.

    That is what Mr. Johnson is saying.

    Ridicule about corn flakes -- sheesh!

  3. Did Boris just sell control of the BBC? Seems a good investment for a price of £400,000, with money back in 2.5 years, plus supervision of one of the world’s best-known media operations –

    The new chair of the BBC is former Goldman Sachs banker Richard Sharp. Richard Sharp is Jewish, has advised Boris Johnson, and gave £400,000 to the UK’s ruling Tory party. The BBC board chair receives £160,000 annual salary for three to four days work per week.
    https://www.rt.com/uk/515849-bbc-chair-banker-johnson-adviser/

    • Thanks: YetAnotherAnon
    • Replies: @BB753
    @brabantian

    Will the BBC become more left-wing as a result? I mean, is it even possible? Is there Chinese capital involved?

    Replies: @El Dato

    , @Bill Jones
    @brabantian

    Small independent businesses in risky fields of endeavor typically sell for about three times earnings so $400k for a $160k isn't terribly off the mark.

  4. “16% of the world have an IQ below 85”

    Does Boris really think that? He seemed to know the standard deviation, but doesn’t know the 100 mean only applies to white NW Europeans?

    • Replies: @Kronos
    @Lot

    I think he tensed up a bit after discussing IQ. That’s especially dangerous territory for a politician being recorded. He just started his talk about rich people waving their banknotes underneath the noses of the poor so he started off with populist sentiment.

    https://i.imgflip.com/1ohsbi.jpg

    (This is the “working class scum” meme template yet I couldn’t find one with the captions. Odd.)

    , @AnotherDad
    @Lot


    “16% of the world have an IQ below 85”

    Does Boris really think that? He seemed to know the standard deviation, but doesn’t know the 100 mean only applies to white NW Europeans?
     
    C'mon he's not going there, even if he has some sense of it. (Who knows.) His numbers are what he's been briefed with.

    ~~

    I'm onboard with Steve that the cornflakes thing seems kind of sideways. But overall Boris's presentation here strikes me as quite a bit more intelligent than what we get from American politicians. Easy to draw out a few points:

    -- You need some inequality to make people compete/produce. And you need winners to milk. (There's no milk if no one's gone milking.)

    -- There's a natural inequality of talent.
    - A 1/6 of the population is really pretty stupid. (And can't contribute much.)
    - A very small fraction has the smarts to grab opportunities and grab outsized rewards.

    -- Worldwide economic competition is heating up. There are fewer protected areas. This heightened competition sorts on natural ability even more than before.

    Not exactly rocket science points--should be stuff everyone understands by high school--but at least actually intelligent/true--unlike 99% of our American politicians spew.


    I thought the Thatcher handbag wrap was pretty insipid. Maybe it was a Thatcher thing and some sort of paean to Thatcher was required? But anytime a guy trots out the whole fear-of-woman thing it's just lame and pathetic. I think there are all sorts of issues around women in the West right now, but isn't because they are so awesome.

    Replies: @vhrm

  5. I kinda got lost, did Thatcher keep high IQ and low IQ cornflakes in her handbag? Did she twirl the purse around with the high IQ flakes getting to the top?

  6. Oh my he had to bring up the handbag. There is no better enforcer of humility for the male of the species.

    • Replies: @Kronos
    @Geoffs

    For younger members, did Thatcher’s handbag have special political significance? Most female purses/handbags do have special “multidimensional properties” in terms of how much stuff you can shove into them but could Thatcher’s bag pull out a British tank? Could it have stored the Falklands?

    https://youtu.be/AivZSC9J3Rs

    Replies: @James O'Meara, @El Dato

    , @Bardon Kaldian
    @Geoffs

    https://www.vogue.co.uk/fashion/article/margaret-thatcher-handbag

    How Margaret Thatcher Turned Her Handbag Into A Weapon

    https://medium.com/exploring-history/the-semiotics-of-thatchers-handbag-5a8a4dfa5652

    The Semiotics of Thatcher’s Handbag

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-11518330

    'I was handbagged by Mrs Thatcher'

  7. Another good part comes at the end:

    “a woman who knew all about soft power,

    and hard power,

    and above all about the deep, Freudian terror that every man possesses

    of the inner recesses

    of a handbag.”

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Agree. - Delectare et prodesse. He must have heard that classic rhetorical advice somewhere along his way about the necessity to deliver both to your audience: Delights and insights. - And he did take this lesson to his heart.


    Btw. - his hint to Freud is a meta-joke because Boris Johnson transforms here Freuds penis-envy theorem = the Viennese's interpretation of the classical Greek Oedipus saga as a faraway hint at the little girl's envious mental disposition. And now comes Boris Johnson's funny and witty indeed move: He looks at all the men who were turned into little boys by Margret Thatcher and lets them - öh - shrink even more by characterizing them as terrorized (=traumatized...) by the recesses (the huge empty space) of - something attached to Margret Thatcher.

    In other words, Boris Johnson lets the men Ms. Tatcher dwarfed shiver over the imagination of a symbol (the handbag) of her sexes sexual strength actually which is - receding (=the recesses) big style inwards just like her - vagina does - - making the little boy's little penises - in this dark and horrific tale, Boris JonJohnson is telling here - absolutely lost.

    (A man of true wits and talents).

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

    , @YetAnotherAnon
    @Buzz Mohawk

    "the deep, Freudian terror that every man possesses of the inner recesses of a handbag"

    If I'm looking for something and my wife says "look in my handbag" I always reply "you look for it - I'm not going in there".

    It's like the Tardis in there.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

    , @anon
    @Buzz Mohawk

    above all about the deep, Freudian terror that every man possesses
    of the inner recesses
    of a handbag.”


    Every AFC beta-boy wimp. That old wimpy perv Freud? Scared of the purse?

    Of the purse?

    Lol.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Rrlm01OIZ4

    Replies: @Gary in Gramercy

  8. Typo in sub-heading: “like is like” should be “IQ is like”.

    • Replies: @duncsbaby
    @Peter Johnson

    I thought the same thing but Sailer corrected it to "life is like."

  9. Greed is good.

    Michael Douglas and Charlie Sheen told me so.

  10. • Replies: @duncsbaby
    @JohnnyWalker123

    If it's literally his favorite story of all time why doesn't he write a novel on it or a history of the event? Nope, our current liberal-intellectual elite writes a tweet thread. This guy probably thinks he's done something of worth.

  11. I’ll see you guys at the iSteve Christmas party, to be held at the Hyatt Regency.

    Until then, I can’t go out. Doctor’s orders.

    • Replies: @res
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Is there a reason anybody still takes what Fauci says seriously? I guess he is useful in giving us an idea what our "elites" have planned for us, but otherwise...

    Given how sharply case and death rates are falling in the US right now
    https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
    along with the increasing immunity from all of the vaccinations I think this summer will be less of a concern than Fauci seems to be indicating.

    This page has some useful data and analysis.
    https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/
    One thing I don't understand is why they see vaccination rates dropping so sharply in May (anyone?).

    I have two major issues with that page though. For more on these search my comments for heterogeneity and seasonality.

    1. They do not consider the likely effect of heterogeneity on the herd immunity threshold. This is even more important now that we have a vaccine and are selectively immunizing the most vulnerable.

    2. They do not consider the likely effect of seasonality on the contagiousness of the virus (which directly impacts the effective R and thus the herd immunity threshold). For whatever the reason (humidity, temperature, more time inside, vitamin D, ...) looking at the past year it is clear how important that is.

    IMO, based on the past year, Fauci has things exactly wrong (big surprise there). Thanksgiving and Christmas are periods when we should be especially careful. Take a look at those DIVOC-19 US new case and death curves. The combination of seasonality along with the increased travel and socialization of the holidays is a concern (perhaps a temporary resumption of masking, etc. in mid-Nov. to mid-Jan.?). But it should be possible to largely return to normal during the late spring and summer.

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123, @epebble, @Dieter Kief

  12. y’all actin like Boris doesn’t know about Wheatabix

  13. It’s a good thing he didn’t go into any analogies about Cocoa Puffs.

    • Agree: Farenheit
    • LOL: Kent Nationalist
  14. In the future, only intelligent people will have economic value.

    Half of all intelligent people in the world live in China.

    Therefore, China may eventually generate half of the world’s economic output.

    [MORE]

    Details:

    People who have an IQ greater than 115 are considered intelligent.

    If we assume that IQ scores have a Gaussian distribution with a standard deviation of 15, then we can estimate the number of intelligent people (IQ > 115) in each nation.

    Out of the 670 million intelligent people in the entire world, 363 million live in China.

    363 million / 670 million = 54% of all of the intelligent people in the world are Chinese.

    Spreadsheet:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQAizod1b4oUrfL1WiN0-YV6V9fZ5w9yIu-Ge_ih1jzPC3STNn0BFuVzXF-GAu4FSuofp3oxD2qcFx4/pubhtml

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    @Pittsburgh Thatcherite


    In the future, only intelligent people will have economic value.
     
    Bullshit.

    Even "intelligent people" have no economic value. Everyone is a "consumer," even people who are not intelligent by your definition. Consumers have economic value. What they consume does too. The question is how it will be produced, and increasingly, the relationship between intelligence and production is smaller and smaller.

    What this means is: The world is becoming a beehive.

    It produces its honey via an increasingly non-thinking public.

    Now, China is the best human version of a beehive, so the rest of your argument would seem valid -- not because of intelligence, however, but because of sheer numbers and a history of conformity.

    If you want to know what the future looks like, imagine billions of faceless, mindless worker bees following a program -- while the boot keeps its stamp on the face of human individuality and freedom forever.

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist

  15. Kaboom cereal, but that belongs to another website.

  16. Steve please use Grammarly!

    The future Prime Minister explains in 2013 how like [LIFE] is like a packet of cornflakes:

    I had some trouble parsing this.

    OT:

    The Lucasfilm lady gets ratioed to death, then the inbox is cleared:

    Lucasfilm president excoriated for talking of EMPOWERING WOMEN after firing Gina Carano, forcing Oscars to wipe comments

    The Oscars posted the video on Tuesday, featuring Kennedy speaking about its scientific and technical awards. Kennedy, who fired Carano last week over “abhorrent and unacceptable” social media posts [i.e. mentioning the Holocaust which is becoming the new N-word for non-anointed] , said in the video that “women are helping to redefine science and technology in the movies, and that means a brave, bold future without limits for each and every storyteller.”

    Yup that CGI is emboldening, a bit too much even. It’s become fucking obnoxious since at at least 2000 or so.

    ‘Star Wars’ fans responded with disgust, ripping Kennedy for her hypocrisy. The social-media beating was so severe – with dislikes outnumbering likes by 10,000 to 101 and more than 6,000 almost entirely negative comments being posted – that the Oscars disabled all reactions to the video.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    @El Dato


    Steve please use Grammarly!

    The future Prime Minister explains in 2013 how like [LIFE] is like a packet of cornflakes:

     

    I had some trouble parsing this.
     
    Leave the man alone. We all know what he meant. How on Earth could you "have trouble parsing this?"

    Mamma always said life is like a box of cornflakes. Don't you know that?

    It is heartening to the rest of us that Steve Sailer himself occasionally makes a typo, and sometimes a grammatical error, and even occasionally a factual one -- because we do.

    Replies: @PiltdownMan, @El Dato

    , @David
    @El Dato

    The three women are being honored for pioneering "hair simulation." Maybe CGI is the solution to all the world's hair problems.

    , @BenKenobi
    @El Dato

    "You have freedom of speech but not freedom from consequences. People are just letting you know they think you're an assh*le and want nothing to do with you."

    "Oh wait, those are the wrong people. They don't get to do that."

    , @Wilkey
    @El Dato

    The collapse of box office receipts for Star Wars movies is something to behold. The Farce Awokens did $2.07 billion. The Last Jedi did $1.33 billion, and The Rise of Skywalker did $1.07 billion.

    So from first to last, the inflation-adjusted box office receipts for Disney’s Star Wars trilogy fell by over 50%.

    By comparison, The Lord of the Rings trilogy actually improved with each movie, and even the much-maligned Hobbit trilogy only dropped off a little (about 7%). The Return of the King (2003) actually did $70 million more at the box office than The Rise of Skywalker (2019), and that’s before adjusting for 16 years of inflation. And Star Wars has a much broader fanbase than Tolkien.

    Kathleen Kennedy’s pathetic management of the Star Wars franchise cost Disney at least $1.7 billion in box office receipts, and God only knows how much it cost them in toy sales, and yet she still has her job.

    Replies: @Kronos, @anon

  17. Marginally better than a box of chocolates.

    The adoration of the Maggie continues to baffle me. I haven’t the words to express the depressing memory of rail journeys back and forth from home to college through the industrial Black Country of the English Midlands and seeing the progressive demolition of hundreds of engineering factories in the early 1980s.

    • Replies: @Gordo
    @Cortes


    The adoration of the Maggie continues to baffle me. I haven’t the words to express the depressing memory of rail journeys back and forth from home to college through the industrial Black Country of the English Midlands and seeing the progressive demolition of hundreds of engineering factories in the early 1980s.
     
    Sadly she was a globalist masquerading as a nationalist.
    , @James O'Meara
    @Cortes

    Indeed. And IIRC, despite being the longest serving PM (until Major), she never once got as much as 40% of the vote. Nevertheless, American cons continue to idolize her. It provides the best evidence for the Frankfuter theory that conservatism is a product of poor toilet training, or some kind of "Beat me, Mommy" fantasy.

    , @Philip Owen
    @Cortes

    As an apprentice at one of them, I have to say that it wasn't Maggie, it was oil and its effect on the pound. In the case of my factory, the effect of oil on the demand for large electrical machines as well. No one was building steel works, deep mines or power stations anymore. The UK could have built a new generation of nuclear power stations to save us but the miners mattered too much and there was a large anti nuclear movement.

  18. @El Dato
    Steve please use Grammarly!

    The future Prime Minister explains in 2013 how like [LIFE] is like a packet of cornflakes:
     
    I had some trouble parsing this.

    OT:

    The Lucasfilm lady gets ratioed to death, then the inbox is cleared:

    Lucasfilm president excoriated for talking of EMPOWERING WOMEN after firing Gina Carano, forcing Oscars to wipe comments

    https://youtu.be/ORCNv44sX10


    The Oscars posted the video on Tuesday, featuring Kennedy speaking about its scientific and technical awards. Kennedy, who fired Carano last week over “abhorrent and unacceptable” social media posts [i.e. mentioning the Holocaust which is becoming the new N-word for non-anointed] , said in the video that “women are helping to redefine science and technology in the movies, and that means a brave, bold future without limits for each and every storyteller.”
     
    Yup that CGI is emboldening, a bit too much even. It's become fucking obnoxious since at at least 2000 or so.

    ‘Star Wars’ fans responded with disgust, ripping Kennedy for her hypocrisy. The social-media beating was so severe – with dislikes outnumbering likes by 10,000 to 101 and more than 6,000 almost entirely negative comments being posted – that the Oscars disabled all reactions to the video.
     

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @David, @BenKenobi, @Wilkey

    Steve please use Grammarly!

    The future Prime Minister explains in 2013 how like [LIFE] is like a packet of cornflakes:

    I had some trouble parsing this.

    Leave the man alone. We all know what he meant. How on Earth could you “have trouble parsing this?”

    Mamma always said life is like a box of cornflakes. Don’t you know that?

    It is heartening to the rest of us that Steve Sailer himself occasionally makes a typo, and sometimes a grammatical error, and even occasionally a factual one — because we do.

    • Replies: @PiltdownMan
    @Buzz Mohawk




    The future Prime Minister explains in 2013 how like [LIFE] is like a packet of cornflakes:

    I had some trouble parsing this.

     

    LIFE is like a packet of cornflakes.

    https://i.imgur.com/ZzosI8u.jpg

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

    , @El Dato
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Since the Internet, my ability to grok phrases has become MUCH more fluid.

    Hence, trouble parsing.


    because we do.
     
    Of course we do. But we can also fix things.

    Meanwhile, day-carrying tweet:

    Savage, tacky, or dangerous? Congresswoman’s GUN SHELF causes stir during virtual hearing


    It was Rep. Katie Porter (D-California) who kicked off the whole thing on Thursday, reporting Boebert to the 'Room Rater' account on Twitter for having a “dangerous” background during the House Natural Resources Committee hearing via Zoom.

    “Unsafe gun storage is no laughing matter,” the account replied, calling Boebert a “fascist fraulein,” a German word for unmarried woman.
     

    Technically yes. But actually, it's belittling.

    Boebert, the married mother-of-four, glossed over the insult but shot back: “Who says this is storage? These are ready for use.”
     
    https://twitter.com/laurenboebert/status/1362470458277433347

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @BenKenobi, @anon, @ScarletNumber

  19. @Pittsburgh Thatcherite
    In the future, only intelligent people will have economic value.

    Half of all intelligent people in the world live in China.

    Therefore, China may eventually generate half of the world’s economic output.



    Details:

    People who have an IQ greater than 115 are considered intelligent.

    If we assume that IQ scores have a Gaussian distribution with a standard deviation of 15, then we can estimate the number of intelligent people (IQ > 115) in each nation.

    Out of the 670 million intelligent people in the entire world, 363 million live in China.

    363 million / 670 million = 54% of all of the intelligent people in the world are Chinese.


    Spreadsheet:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQAizod1b4oUrfL1WiN0-YV6V9fZ5w9yIu-Ge_ih1jzPC3STNn0BFuVzXF-GAu4FSuofp3oxD2qcFx4/pubhtml

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

    In the future, only intelligent people will have economic value.

    Bullshit.

    Even “intelligent people” have no economic value. Everyone is a “consumer,” even people who are not intelligent by your definition. Consumers have economic value. What they consume does too. The question is how it will be produced, and increasingly, the relationship between intelligence and production is smaller and smaller.

    What this means is: The world is becoming a beehive.

    It produces its honey via an increasingly non-thinking public.

    Now, China is the best human version of a beehive, so the rest of your argument would seem valid — not because of intelligence, however, but because of sheer numbers and a history of conformity.

    If you want to know what the future looks like, imagine billions of faceless, mindless worker bees following a program — while the boot keeps its stamp on the face of human individuality and freedom forever.

    • Agree: Redman
    • Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist
    @Buzz Mohawk

    There's a strong argument to be made that the coming waves of AI will be harder on the administrative middle and even upper-middle classes than on the 'hands-on' working class.

    Lots of legal procedures, medical diagnostics, routine business transactions, and so on will be easier and easier to automate. The reign of the midwit symbol-manipulators will be undermined.

    I also suspect more and more people, exhausted by the thin virtuality of social media, will become obsessed with the 'authenticity' of their day-to-day experiences, and will seek out and pay for 'artisanal' interactions not just in restaurants and bars, but also in shopping, health care, and so on. You can see this happening right now with food -- products that can be marketed as the products of personalized curating and care command premium prices. This demand is bound to spread.

    You do not need to be especially intelligent to find a niche in this kind of economy.

    Replies: @anonymous, @Inquiring Mind, @epebble, @vhrm, @anon

  20. I thought life was supposed to be like a box of chocolates .

  21. @Buzz Mohawk
    Another good part comes at the end:

    "a woman who knew all about soft power,

    and hard power,

    and above all about the deep, Freudian terror that every man possesses

    of the inner recesses

    of a handbag."

    Replies: @Dieter Kief, @YetAnotherAnon, @anon

    Agree. – Delectare et prodesse. He must have heard that classic rhetorical advice somewhere along his way about the necessity to deliver both to your audience: Delights and insights. – And he did take this lesson to his heart.

    Btw. – his hint to Freud is a meta-joke because Boris Johnson transforms here Freuds penis-envy theorem = the Viennese’s interpretation of the classical Greek Oedipus saga as a faraway hint at the little girl’s envious mental disposition. And now comes Boris Johnson’s funny and witty indeed move: He looks at all the men who were turned into little boys by Margret Thatcher and lets them – öh – shrink even more by characterizing them as terrorized (=traumatized…) by the recesses (the huge empty space) of – something attached to Margret Thatcher.

    In other words, Boris Johnson lets the men Ms. Tatcher dwarfed shiver over the imagination of a symbol (the handbag) of her sexes sexual strength actually which is – receding (=the recesses) big style inwards just like her – vagina does – – making the little boy’s little penises – in this dark and horrific tale, Boris JonJohnson is telling here – absolutely lost.

    (A man of true wits and talents).

    • Thanks: Gordo
    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    @Dieter Kief

    Yes. You have elaborated very well on my point. Thank you!


    (A man of true wits and talents).
     
    A description of both Boris and you, sir.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief

  22. @Dieter Kief
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Agree. - Delectare et prodesse. He must have heard that classic rhetorical advice somewhere along his way about the necessity to deliver both to your audience: Delights and insights. - And he did take this lesson to his heart.


    Btw. - his hint to Freud is a meta-joke because Boris Johnson transforms here Freuds penis-envy theorem = the Viennese's interpretation of the classical Greek Oedipus saga as a faraway hint at the little girl's envious mental disposition. And now comes Boris Johnson's funny and witty indeed move: He looks at all the men who were turned into little boys by Margret Thatcher and lets them - öh - shrink even more by characterizing them as terrorized (=traumatized...) by the recesses (the huge empty space) of - something attached to Margret Thatcher.

    In other words, Boris Johnson lets the men Ms. Tatcher dwarfed shiver over the imagination of a symbol (the handbag) of her sexes sexual strength actually which is - receding (=the recesses) big style inwards just like her - vagina does - - making the little boy's little penises - in this dark and horrific tale, Boris JonJohnson is telling here - absolutely lost.

    (A man of true wits and talents).

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

    Yes. You have elaborated very well on my point. Thank you!

    (A man of true wits and talents).

    A description of both Boris and you, sir.

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    @Buzz Mohawk

    I might not have elaborated on your point if you would not have displayed these crucial handbag-lines so nicely. So - double thanks back, Buzz Mohawk!

    (Most don't seem to get this handbag double-talk of Boris Johnson - but simply ignore they can't either; there is something in this strange story which makes them refer to it even though they think it makes no sense. - That's how you win people over - an old observation of this Sigmund Freud man one more time: As soon as people start to fantasize about you, the therapeutic pact is sealed. - Don't worry about the kind of phantasies, he said to his colleagues, the more important thing is: They have taken the bite!
    (This story is a footnote about the connection of individual and social psychology too - a thing which in my eyes is real, but in the eyes of lots of people is not. I guess that this can't be any other way.)

  23. @Buzz Mohawk
    @El Dato


    Steve please use Grammarly!

    The future Prime Minister explains in 2013 how like [LIFE] is like a packet of cornflakes:

     

    I had some trouble parsing this.
     
    Leave the man alone. We all know what he meant. How on Earth could you "have trouble parsing this?"

    Mamma always said life is like a box of cornflakes. Don't you know that?

    It is heartening to the rest of us that Steve Sailer himself occasionally makes a typo, and sometimes a grammatical error, and even occasionally a factual one -- because we do.

    Replies: @PiltdownMan, @El Dato

    The future Prime Minister explains in 2013 how like [LIFE] is like a packet of cornflakes:

    I had some trouble parsing this.

    LIFE is like a packet of cornflakes.

    • LOL: Kronos
    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    @PiltdownMan

    It's a pretty good cereal too.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

  24. @Buzz Mohawk
    @Pittsburgh Thatcherite


    In the future, only intelligent people will have economic value.
     
    Bullshit.

    Even "intelligent people" have no economic value. Everyone is a "consumer," even people who are not intelligent by your definition. Consumers have economic value. What they consume does too. The question is how it will be produced, and increasingly, the relationship between intelligence and production is smaller and smaller.

    What this means is: The world is becoming a beehive.

    It produces its honey via an increasingly non-thinking public.

    Now, China is the best human version of a beehive, so the rest of your argument would seem valid -- not because of intelligence, however, but because of sheer numbers and a history of conformity.

    If you want to know what the future looks like, imagine billions of faceless, mindless worker bees following a program -- while the boot keeps its stamp on the face of human individuality and freedom forever.

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist

    There’s a strong argument to be made that the coming waves of AI will be harder on the administrative middle and even upper-middle classes than on the ‘hands-on’ working class.

    Lots of legal procedures, medical diagnostics, routine business transactions, and so on will be easier and easier to automate. The reign of the midwit symbol-manipulators will be undermined.

    I also suspect more and more people, exhausted by the thin virtuality of social media, will become obsessed with the ‘authenticity’ of their day-to-day experiences, and will seek out and pay for ‘artisanal’ interactions not just in restaurants and bars, but also in shopping, health care, and so on. You can see this happening right now with food — products that can be marketed as the products of personalized curating and care command premium prices. This demand is bound to spread.

    You do not need to be especially intelligent to find a niche in this kind of economy.

    • Replies: @anonymous
    @The Last Real Calvinist

    While I agree with your prediction of AI inevitably invading the middle and upper classes, I wonder how the "midwit symbol manipulators" will have the means to participate in "artisanal interactions". The numbers I've seen discussed by Universal Basic Income proponents won't allow for many artisanal experiences.

    , @Inquiring Mind
    @The Last Real Calvinist

    You talking about Whole Foods, bro?

    Holy SWPL Batman!

    , @epebble
    @The Last Real Calvinist

    AI is a future risk; Presently, it is global wage arbitrage that symbol manipulators have to contend with.

    On the other hand, this:

    With millions looking for work, stigmas create a dearth of skilled tradespeople
    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/with-millions-looking-for-work-stigmas-create-a-dearth-of-skilled-tradespeople

    , @vhrm
    @The Last Real Calvinist


    The reign of the midwit symbol-manipulators will be undermined.
    ...
    You do not need to be especially intelligent to find a niche in this kind of economy.
     
    The current midwit symbol-manipulators will have a lower relative level of income perhaps, but they'll take the less prestigious job currently occupied by some lower IQ person whether they can truly do it better or can weasel their way into it better or whatever. And that person will push out people below them, etc. It may be that all janitors etc are 100+iq but I don't think you'll see higher avg income for say 90-100 than 100-110 than 110-120

    in the medium to long term it will continue to be individuals on the left side of the curve who will continue tohave the least economic value even if the white collar jobs go away and many people's value decreases and you have to have an iq of 110 and a bachelor's degree to even get a minimum wage job.

    , @anon
    @The Last Real Calvinist

    "I also suspect more and more people, exhausted by the thin virtuality of social media, will become obsessed with the ‘authenticity’ of their day-to-day experiences, and will seek out and pay for ‘artisanal’ interactions not just in restaurants and bars, but also in shopping, health care, and so on. You can see this happening right now with food — products that can be marketed as the products of personalized curating and care command premium prices. This demand is bound to spread.

    You do not need to be especially intelligent to find a niche in this kind of economy."

    You can see it so many areas and the demand will only get bigger. Great opportunities for those who are willing to learn new skills and get good at them.

  25. @PiltdownMan
    @Buzz Mohawk




    The future Prime Minister explains in 2013 how like [LIFE] is like a packet of cornflakes:

    I had some trouble parsing this.

     

    LIFE is like a packet of cornflakes.

    https://i.imgur.com/ZzosI8u.jpg

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

    It’s a pretty good cereal too.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Yeah, cause it's got sugar crystals embedded all in the pieces. It's about as sweet as any of them, but Mom gets fooled by the lack of bright food coloring, marshmallows and chips of what have-you-you. Keep it away from Mom, and, going by looks, she'll think it's the healthiest thing since mueslix. Win/win!

    Even Boris likes it, and Boris hates everything.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

  26. @Buzz Mohawk
    @El Dato


    Steve please use Grammarly!

    The future Prime Minister explains in 2013 how like [LIFE] is like a packet of cornflakes:

     

    I had some trouble parsing this.
     
    Leave the man alone. We all know what he meant. How on Earth could you "have trouble parsing this?"

    Mamma always said life is like a box of cornflakes. Don't you know that?

    It is heartening to the rest of us that Steve Sailer himself occasionally makes a typo, and sometimes a grammatical error, and even occasionally a factual one -- because we do.

    Replies: @PiltdownMan, @El Dato

    Since the Internet, my ability to grok phrases has become MUCH more fluid.

    Hence, trouble parsing.

    because we do.

    Of course we do. But we can also fix things.

    Meanwhile, day-carrying tweet:

    Savage, tacky, or dangerous? Congresswoman’s GUN SHELF causes stir during virtual hearing

    It was Rep. Katie Porter (D-California) who kicked off the whole thing on Thursday, reporting Boebert to the ‘Room Rater’ account on Twitter for having a “dangerous” background during the House Natural Resources Committee hearing via Zoom.

    “Unsafe gun storage is no laughing matter,” the account replied, calling Boebert a “fascist fraulein,” a German word for unmarried woman.

    Technically yes. But actually, it’s belittling.

    Boebert, the married mother-of-four, glossed over the insult but shot back: “Who says this is storage? These are ready for use.”

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    @El Dato

    Ooh, I like her.

    BTW, you used the word, "grok." I don't often see it, but when I do, it makes me think of old hippies wearing Birkenstocks.

    Replies: @El Dato, @The Alarmist, @Bill Jones

    , @BenKenobi
    @El Dato

    She's no firebrand Falangist QT3.14 but she'll do.

    , @anon
    @El Dato

    Western slope Congressional rep, mother of 4, owns a restaurant called Shooters in the town of Rifle...what's not to like?

    , @ScarletNumber
    @El Dato

    Are those actual eyebrows?

    Replies: @anon

  27. @brabantian
    Did Boris just sell control of the BBC? Seems a good investment for a price of £400,000, with money back in 2.5 years, plus supervision of one of the world's best-known media operations -

    The new chair of the BBC is former Goldman Sachs banker Richard Sharp. Richard Sharp is Jewish, has advised Boris Johnson, and gave £400,000 to the UK's ruling Tory party. The BBC board chair receives £160,000 annual salary for three to four days work per week.
    https://www.rt.com/uk/515849-bbc-chair-banker-johnson-adviser/
    https://cdni.rt.com/files/2021.02/l/602d53c585f5405fd56fb324.jpg

    Replies: @BB753, @Bill Jones

    Will the BBC become more left-wing as a result? I mean, is it even possible? Is there Chinese capital involved?

    • Replies: @El Dato
    @BB753

    I don't quite know what's going on but apparently the Scottish Nationalist Party (which is actually the European Party as it demands to fly Euro flags in a brexited UK) under female leadership is conducting an internal purge against her competitor under cover of about 17 accusations of sexual misconduct that happened decades ago.

    The jury, mainly composed of women, threw the shit out.

    And now the time has come to remove Sturgeon from premises.

    It sounds like the UK is like the Ukraine, just with more money and more NATO.

    "Red" Galloway writes:

    Galloway: The epic battle within the Scottish Nationalist movement will leave Sturgeon flapping on the deck of a sinking ship


    I never had any doubt of Salmond’s innocence, because I knew him so well, and because I had seen exactly the same playbook used to attempt the annihilation of Julian Assange. In today’s world, the fastest way to discredit a radical figure is not to accuse them of shoplifting or even bank robbery, but as Salmond was, to claim he put his hand on a woman's fully clothed hip whilst dancing.

     


    The London-based media have begun not just to report on the farrago, but to take legal actions in the courts to force disclosure of material which is clearly in the public interest. The Scottish media, particularly the ironically named British Broadcasting Corporation, continues to report cats stuck up trees instead of the dramatic events unfolding in courts and committees right outside their doors. But the truth will out. And next week.
     
  28. @El Dato
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Since the Internet, my ability to grok phrases has become MUCH more fluid.

    Hence, trouble parsing.


    because we do.
     
    Of course we do. But we can also fix things.

    Meanwhile, day-carrying tweet:

    Savage, tacky, or dangerous? Congresswoman’s GUN SHELF causes stir during virtual hearing


    It was Rep. Katie Porter (D-California) who kicked off the whole thing on Thursday, reporting Boebert to the 'Room Rater' account on Twitter for having a “dangerous” background during the House Natural Resources Committee hearing via Zoom.

    “Unsafe gun storage is no laughing matter,” the account replied, calling Boebert a “fascist fraulein,” a German word for unmarried woman.
     

    Technically yes. But actually, it's belittling.

    Boebert, the married mother-of-four, glossed over the insult but shot back: “Who says this is storage? These are ready for use.”
     
    https://twitter.com/laurenboebert/status/1362470458277433347

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @BenKenobi, @anon, @ScarletNumber

    Ooh, I like her.

    BTW, you used the word, “grok.” I don’t often see it, but when I do, it makes me think of old hippies wearing Birkenstocks.

    • Replies: @El Dato
    @Buzz Mohawk

    That's because it's a word from 1961, or so I am told.

    http://www.catb.org/jargon/html/G/grok.html

    , @The Alarmist
    @Buzz Mohawk

    It’s been so long since I last heard grok that I had to grep it.

    , @Bill Jones
    @Buzz Mohawk

    We're all strangers in strange lands nowadays. Grok may make a comeback.

  29. @Buzz Mohawk
    @PiltdownMan

    It's a pretty good cereal too.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    Yeah, cause it’s got sugar crystals embedded all in the pieces. It’s about as sweet as any of them, but Mom gets fooled by the lack of bright food coloring, marshmallows and chips of what have-you-you. Keep it away from Mom, and, going by looks, she’ll think it’s the healthiest thing since mueslix. Win/win!

    Even Boris likes it, and Boris hates everything.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Yum! Vodka works the same way. Doesn't look like anything.

    Someday, "they" will discover that sugar is really good for you. I already know.

    https://www.sickchirpse.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Boris-Johnson-1.jpg

  30. @Peter Johnson
    Typo in sub-heading: "like is like" should be "IQ is like".

    Replies: @duncsbaby

    I thought the same thing but Sailer corrected it to “life is like.”

  31. @Achmed E. Newman
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Yeah, cause it's got sugar crystals embedded all in the pieces. It's about as sweet as any of them, but Mom gets fooled by the lack of bright food coloring, marshmallows and chips of what have-you-you. Keep it away from Mom, and, going by looks, she'll think it's the healthiest thing since mueslix. Win/win!

    Even Boris likes it, and Boris hates everything.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

    Yum! Vodka works the same way. Doesn’t look like anything.

    Someday, “they” will discover that sugar is really good for you. I already know.

  32. @JohnnyWalker123
    https://twitter.com/michaelharriot/status/1362203185553825792

    Replies: @duncsbaby

    If it’s literally his favorite story of all time why doesn’t he write a novel on it or a history of the event? Nope, our current liberal-intellectual elite writes a tweet thread. This guy probably thinks he’s done something of worth.

  33. Johnson has the courage to address the unmentionable, IQ & to promote otherwise trivial idea of natural inequality. I think his speech, re Britain, is correct. And he should not be blamed for reducing inequality to economic inequality, because a good government is, except at war, all about making a better and safer life for their humans as consumers, not about solving existential problems.

    Funny, he even (mis)used Freud, at the end, when he was speaking on the handbag.

  34. “Whatever you may think of the value of IQ tests it is surely relevant to a conversation about equality that as many as 16% of our species have an IQ below 85 while about 2% …”

    He has managed to get every statement completely wrong.

    That is because he is using rhetoric, that he was taught at school, and no factual content.

  35. @Buzz Mohawk
    Another good part comes at the end:

    "a woman who knew all about soft power,

    and hard power,

    and above all about the deep, Freudian terror that every man possesses

    of the inner recesses

    of a handbag."

    Replies: @Dieter Kief, @YetAnotherAnon, @anon

    “the deep, Freudian terror that every man possesses of the inner recesses of a handbag”

    If I’m looking for something and my wife says “look in my handbag” I always reply “you look for it – I’m not going in there”.

    It’s like the Tardis in there.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    @YetAnotherAnon

    Remember, we are from Mars, and they are from Venus. I can look right into the fridge and not see something that she placed right there. They have ways of making things invisible to us.

  36. This is the best analogue for Boris & The Tories.

  37. I’m not a fan of this English cuisine, by any means, but I sure like the old Rod Stewart music, from before he became big in America.

    Sing a song of six-pence for your sake,
    and drink a bottle full of rye.
    Four and twenty blackbirds in a cake,
    and bake ’em all in a pie.

    (Give me Life cereal over blackbird pie, any day.)

    Handbags and Gladrags I don’t even want to know what a gladrag is, some sort of feminine product made by the ziploc bag manufacturer, perhaps? Anyway, the British The Office show used an instrumental piece of this song as its intro music.

    • Replies: @Bill Jones
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Gladrags = party clothes.

    , @Jonathan Mason
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Duh! Gladrags are your best clothes for dressing up in to go to a party.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    , @Alden
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Glad rags is a 19th century term for both men’s and women’s dress up clothes. Get off work at the dirty factory wash up, put on your glad rags and go have some fun on Saturday night.

    Another frontier in trans gender equality. Stores are told to abolish separate gender sections for children’s clothes. That’s so little boys who are really little girls can whine and nag for pink dresses without feeling out of place.

    That will make shopping for boys clothes even harder. It’s almost impossible to find plain boys T shirts sweatshirts and jackets without cartoon characters and black ball team logos.

    Carter’s is a big baby &toddler clothes company. Their online catalog has a big picture of 2 3 year olds cuddling. And surprise surprise !!! They’re a blonde girl and a black boy.

    So f’em.

    , @ScarletNumber
    @Achmed E. Newman

    And Gervais & Merchant used the refrain as the closing theme, except they used the Fin Muir version arranged by Big George. The song itself was written by Mike d'Abo, the father of the sexy Olivia.

    , @Kratoklastes
    @Achmed E. Newman


    I don’t even want to know what a gladrag is
     
    That implies that you don't already know what gladrags are - how can that be true?

    You must've just had a brain fade, because it's not a term foreign to American English.

    Anyone who's ever heard "Rock Around The Clock" could infer what glad rags are: that's where I first heard the word.

    Put your glad rags on and join me, hon'
    We'll have some fun when the clock strikes one
     

    Replies: @ScarletNumber, @Achmed E. Newman

  38. You be killing granny and underserved minorities and the bloated NHS and probably defeating our anti-russian defenses.

    The YouTube addies bring the required dissociative effect

    Time to go full dystopian

  39. @Buzz Mohawk
    @El Dato

    Ooh, I like her.

    BTW, you used the word, "grok." I don't often see it, but when I do, it makes me think of old hippies wearing Birkenstocks.

    Replies: @El Dato, @The Alarmist, @Bill Jones

    That’s because it’s a word from 1961, or so I am told.

    http://www.catb.org/jargon/html/G/grok.html

    • Thanks: Buzz Mohawk
  40. @The Last Real Calvinist
    @Buzz Mohawk

    There's a strong argument to be made that the coming waves of AI will be harder on the administrative middle and even upper-middle classes than on the 'hands-on' working class.

    Lots of legal procedures, medical diagnostics, routine business transactions, and so on will be easier and easier to automate. The reign of the midwit symbol-manipulators will be undermined.

    I also suspect more and more people, exhausted by the thin virtuality of social media, will become obsessed with the 'authenticity' of their day-to-day experiences, and will seek out and pay for 'artisanal' interactions not just in restaurants and bars, but also in shopping, health care, and so on. You can see this happening right now with food -- products that can be marketed as the products of personalized curating and care command premium prices. This demand is bound to spread.

    You do not need to be especially intelligent to find a niche in this kind of economy.

    Replies: @anonymous, @Inquiring Mind, @epebble, @vhrm, @anon

    While I agree with your prediction of AI inevitably invading the middle and upper classes, I wonder how the “midwit symbol manipulators” will have the means to participate in “artisanal interactions”. The numbers I’ve seen discussed by Universal Basic Income proponents won’t allow for many artisanal experiences.

  41. @Cortes
    Marginally better than a box of chocolates.

    The adoration of the Maggie continues to baffle me. I haven’t the words to express the depressing memory of rail journeys back and forth from home to college through the industrial Black Country of the English Midlands and seeing the progressive demolition of hundreds of engineering factories in the early 1980s.

    Replies: @Gordo, @James O'Meara, @Philip Owen

    The adoration of the Maggie continues to baffle me. I haven’t the words to express the depressing memory of rail journeys back and forth from home to college through the industrial Black Country of the English Midlands and seeing the progressive demolition of hundreds of engineering factories in the early 1980s.

    Sadly she was a globalist masquerading as a nationalist.

  42. @Buzz Mohawk
    @El Dato

    Ooh, I like her.

    BTW, you used the word, "grok." I don't often see it, but when I do, it makes me think of old hippies wearing Birkenstocks.

    Replies: @El Dato, @The Alarmist, @Bill Jones

    It’s been so long since I last heard grok that I had to grep it.

  43. @El Dato
    Steve please use Grammarly!

    The future Prime Minister explains in 2013 how like [LIFE] is like a packet of cornflakes:
     
    I had some trouble parsing this.

    OT:

    The Lucasfilm lady gets ratioed to death, then the inbox is cleared:

    Lucasfilm president excoriated for talking of EMPOWERING WOMEN after firing Gina Carano, forcing Oscars to wipe comments

    https://youtu.be/ORCNv44sX10


    The Oscars posted the video on Tuesday, featuring Kennedy speaking about its scientific and technical awards. Kennedy, who fired Carano last week over “abhorrent and unacceptable” social media posts [i.e. mentioning the Holocaust which is becoming the new N-word for non-anointed] , said in the video that “women are helping to redefine science and technology in the movies, and that means a brave, bold future without limits for each and every storyteller.”
     
    Yup that CGI is emboldening, a bit too much even. It's become fucking obnoxious since at at least 2000 or so.

    ‘Star Wars’ fans responded with disgust, ripping Kennedy for her hypocrisy. The social-media beating was so severe – with dislikes outnumbering likes by 10,000 to 101 and more than 6,000 almost entirely negative comments being posted – that the Oscars disabled all reactions to the video.
     

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @David, @BenKenobi, @Wilkey

    The three women are being honored for pioneering “hair simulation.” Maybe CGI is the solution to all the world’s hair problems.

  44. @jon

    "Whatever you may think of the value of IQ tests it is surely relevant to a conversation about equality that as many as 16% of our species have an IQ below 85 while about 2% ..."
     
    Of our species, yes, but worldwide, isn't it closer to 50%?

    Replies: @Rob McX, @AnotherDad, @Charlotte

    Of our species, yes, but worldwide, isn’t it closer to 50%?

    And rising fast.

    • Agree: Kronos
  45. @brabantian
    Did Boris just sell control of the BBC? Seems a good investment for a price of £400,000, with money back in 2.5 years, plus supervision of one of the world's best-known media operations -

    The new chair of the BBC is former Goldman Sachs banker Richard Sharp. Richard Sharp is Jewish, has advised Boris Johnson, and gave £400,000 to the UK's ruling Tory party. The BBC board chair receives £160,000 annual salary for three to four days work per week.
    https://www.rt.com/uk/515849-bbc-chair-banker-johnson-adviser/
    https://cdni.rt.com/files/2021.02/l/602d53c585f5405fd56fb324.jpg

    Replies: @BB753, @Bill Jones

    Small independent businesses in risky fields of endeavor typically sell for about three times earnings so $400k for a $160k isn’t terribly off the mark.

  46. @Buzz Mohawk
    @El Dato

    Ooh, I like her.

    BTW, you used the word, "grok." I don't often see it, but when I do, it makes me think of old hippies wearing Birkenstocks.

    Replies: @El Dato, @The Alarmist, @Bill Jones

    We’re all strangers in strange lands nowadays. Grok may make a comeback.

  47. @Achmed E. Newman
    I'm not a fan of this English cuisine, by any means, but I sure like the old Rod Stewart music, from before he became big in America.

    Sing a song of six-pence for your sake,
    and drink a bottle full of rye.
    Four and twenty blackbirds in a cake,
    and bake 'em all in a pie.


    (Give me Life cereal over blackbird pie, any day.)

    Handbags and Gladrags I don't even want to know what a gladrag is, some sort of feminine product made by the ziploc bag manufacturer, perhaps? Anyway, the British The Office show used an instrumental piece of this song as its intro music.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqgAZhXpHV0

    Replies: @Bill Jones, @Jonathan Mason, @Alden, @ScarletNumber, @Kratoklastes

    Gladrags = party clothes.

    • Agree: Cortes
  48. @jon
    Maybe there is something cultural that I am missing, because otherwise cornflakes seems like a really silly analogy for politician on the brink of becoming Prime Minister.

    Replies: @Alec Leamas (hard at work), @Inquiring Mind

    Maybe there is something cultural that I am missing, because otherwise cornflakes seems like a really silly analogy for politician on the brink of becoming Prime Minister.

    I suppose the Tories in Britain are associated with a real aristocracy that existed within memory for many, (and, of course, Johnson and Cameron and the gang were quite privileged) so perhaps the challenge is to seem relatable and speak in everyman terms?

  49. @jon
    Maybe there is something cultural that I am missing, because otherwise cornflakes seems like a really silly analogy for politician on the brink of becoming Prime Minister.

    Replies: @Alec Leamas (hard at work), @Inquiring Mind

    C’mon, iSteve’s post is on the level of Anderson Cooper not understanding what Jacob Blake, Sr. was saying about people lying about enjoying Brussels sprouts.

    What Boris is saying that if you have a more laissez-faire unfettered-competition economic systems, you will see a greater income and wealth gap because people vary greatly in innate ability.

    He wasn’t arguing for socialism but for socialism lite, which is a logical endpoint to admitting that IQ has a strong genetic component that cannot be leveled by fully funding Head Start, combatting systemic racism and all the usual suspect social policies.

    If we admit that people are not equal in their abilities to work hard, plan ahead, and not do stupid and dangerous things on impulse, it becomes axiomatic that 1) we need rigorous enforcement of laws against violent acts and activities leading to such acts, something almost everyone here agrees upon, 2) we need some manner of safety net/economic boost to people, which not all, but many around here agree with in opposition to the pure libertarian position.

    That is what Mr. Johnson is saying.

    Ridicule about corn flakes — sheesh!

  50. @The Last Real Calvinist
    @Buzz Mohawk

    There's a strong argument to be made that the coming waves of AI will be harder on the administrative middle and even upper-middle classes than on the 'hands-on' working class.

    Lots of legal procedures, medical diagnostics, routine business transactions, and so on will be easier and easier to automate. The reign of the midwit symbol-manipulators will be undermined.

    I also suspect more and more people, exhausted by the thin virtuality of social media, will become obsessed with the 'authenticity' of their day-to-day experiences, and will seek out and pay for 'artisanal' interactions not just in restaurants and bars, but also in shopping, health care, and so on. You can see this happening right now with food -- products that can be marketed as the products of personalized curating and care command premium prices. This demand is bound to spread.

    You do not need to be especially intelligent to find a niche in this kind of economy.

    Replies: @anonymous, @Inquiring Mind, @epebble, @vhrm, @anon

    You talking about Whole Foods, bro?

    Holy SWPL Batman!

  51. @Lot
    “16% of the world have an IQ below 85”

    Does Boris really think that? He seemed to know the standard deviation, but doesn’t know the 100 mean only applies to white NW Europeans?

    Replies: @Kronos, @AnotherDad

    I think he tensed up a bit after discussing IQ. That’s especially dangerous territory for a politician being recorded. He just started his talk about rich people waving their banknotes underneath the noses of the poor so he started off with populist sentiment.

    (This is the “working class scum” meme template yet I couldn’t find one with the captions. Odd.)

  52. @El Dato
    Steve please use Grammarly!

    The future Prime Minister explains in 2013 how like [LIFE] is like a packet of cornflakes:
     
    I had some trouble parsing this.

    OT:

    The Lucasfilm lady gets ratioed to death, then the inbox is cleared:

    Lucasfilm president excoriated for talking of EMPOWERING WOMEN after firing Gina Carano, forcing Oscars to wipe comments

    https://youtu.be/ORCNv44sX10


    The Oscars posted the video on Tuesday, featuring Kennedy speaking about its scientific and technical awards. Kennedy, who fired Carano last week over “abhorrent and unacceptable” social media posts [i.e. mentioning the Holocaust which is becoming the new N-word for non-anointed] , said in the video that “women are helping to redefine science and technology in the movies, and that means a brave, bold future without limits for each and every storyteller.”
     
    Yup that CGI is emboldening, a bit too much even. It's become fucking obnoxious since at at least 2000 or so.

    ‘Star Wars’ fans responded with disgust, ripping Kennedy for her hypocrisy. The social-media beating was so severe – with dislikes outnumbering likes by 10,000 to 101 and more than 6,000 almost entirely negative comments being posted – that the Oscars disabled all reactions to the video.
     

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @David, @BenKenobi, @Wilkey

    “You have freedom of speech but not freedom from consequences. People are just letting you know they think you’re an assh*le and want nothing to do with you.”

    “Oh wait, those are the wrong people. They don’t get to do that.”

  53. @Geoffs
    Oh my he had to bring up the handbag. There is no better enforcer of humility for the male of the species.

    Replies: @Kronos, @Bardon Kaldian

    For younger members, did Thatcher’s handbag have special political significance? Most female purses/handbags do have special “multidimensional properties” in terms of how much stuff you can shove into them but could Thatcher’s bag pull out a British tank? Could it have stored the Falklands?

    • Replies: @James O'Meara
    @Kronos

    I vaguely recall something like that at the time (long ago!) and this recent item confirms it:

    https://www.vogue.co.uk/fashion/article/margaret-thatcher-handbag

    How Margaret Thatcher Turned Her Handbag Into A Weapon
    BY VICTORIA MOSS
    27 NOVEMBER 2020

    , @El Dato
    @Kronos

    I still have to read the big book on the UK's economic development but whenever I hear "Thatcher"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ypsN2x8i0M


    [radio tuning]
    "...It was announced today, that the replacement for the Atlantic Conveyor the container ship lost in the Falklands conflict would be built in Japan, a spokesman for..."
     
  54. @El Dato
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Since the Internet, my ability to grok phrases has become MUCH more fluid.

    Hence, trouble parsing.


    because we do.
     
    Of course we do. But we can also fix things.

    Meanwhile, day-carrying tweet:

    Savage, tacky, or dangerous? Congresswoman’s GUN SHELF causes stir during virtual hearing


    It was Rep. Katie Porter (D-California) who kicked off the whole thing on Thursday, reporting Boebert to the 'Room Rater' account on Twitter for having a “dangerous” background during the House Natural Resources Committee hearing via Zoom.

    “Unsafe gun storage is no laughing matter,” the account replied, calling Boebert a “fascist fraulein,” a German word for unmarried woman.
     

    Technically yes. But actually, it's belittling.

    Boebert, the married mother-of-four, glossed over the insult but shot back: “Who says this is storage? These are ready for use.”
     
    https://twitter.com/laurenboebert/status/1362470458277433347

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @BenKenobi, @anon, @ScarletNumber

    She’s no firebrand Falangist QT3.14 but she’ll do.

  55. @Achmed E. Newman
    I'm not a fan of this English cuisine, by any means, but I sure like the old Rod Stewart music, from before he became big in America.

    Sing a song of six-pence for your sake,
    and drink a bottle full of rye.
    Four and twenty blackbirds in a cake,
    and bake 'em all in a pie.


    (Give me Life cereal over blackbird pie, any day.)

    Handbags and Gladrags I don't even want to know what a gladrag is, some sort of feminine product made by the ziploc bag manufacturer, perhaps? Anyway, the British The Office show used an instrumental piece of this song as its intro music.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqgAZhXpHV0

    Replies: @Bill Jones, @Jonathan Mason, @Alden, @ScarletNumber, @Kratoklastes

    Duh! Gladrags are your best clothes for dressing up in to go to a party.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Jonathan Mason

    Well, you don't know how relieved I am to hear THAT.

    Thanks.

  56. @Jonathan Mason
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Duh! Gladrags are your best clothes for dressing up in to go to a party.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    Well, you don’t know how relieved I am to hear THAT.

    Thanks.

  57. @El Dato
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Since the Internet, my ability to grok phrases has become MUCH more fluid.

    Hence, trouble parsing.


    because we do.
     
    Of course we do. But we can also fix things.

    Meanwhile, day-carrying tweet:

    Savage, tacky, or dangerous? Congresswoman’s GUN SHELF causes stir during virtual hearing


    It was Rep. Katie Porter (D-California) who kicked off the whole thing on Thursday, reporting Boebert to the 'Room Rater' account on Twitter for having a “dangerous” background during the House Natural Resources Committee hearing via Zoom.

    “Unsafe gun storage is no laughing matter,” the account replied, calling Boebert a “fascist fraulein,” a German word for unmarried woman.
     

    Technically yes. But actually, it's belittling.

    Boebert, the married mother-of-four, glossed over the insult but shot back: “Who says this is storage? These are ready for use.”
     
    https://twitter.com/laurenboebert/status/1362470458277433347

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @BenKenobi, @anon, @ScarletNumber

    Western slope Congressional rep, mother of 4, owns a restaurant called Shooters in the town of Rifle…what’s not to like?

  58. @The Last Real Calvinist
    @Buzz Mohawk

    There's a strong argument to be made that the coming waves of AI will be harder on the administrative middle and even upper-middle classes than on the 'hands-on' working class.

    Lots of legal procedures, medical diagnostics, routine business transactions, and so on will be easier and easier to automate. The reign of the midwit symbol-manipulators will be undermined.

    I also suspect more and more people, exhausted by the thin virtuality of social media, will become obsessed with the 'authenticity' of their day-to-day experiences, and will seek out and pay for 'artisanal' interactions not just in restaurants and bars, but also in shopping, health care, and so on. You can see this happening right now with food -- products that can be marketed as the products of personalized curating and care command premium prices. This demand is bound to spread.

    You do not need to be especially intelligent to find a niche in this kind of economy.

    Replies: @anonymous, @Inquiring Mind, @epebble, @vhrm, @anon

    AI is a future risk; Presently, it is global wage arbitrage that symbol manipulators have to contend with.

    On the other hand, this:

    With millions looking for work, stigmas create a dearth of skilled tradespeople
    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/with-millions-looking-for-work-stigmas-create-a-dearth-of-skilled-tradespeople

  59. @Geoffs
    Oh my he had to bring up the handbag. There is no better enforcer of humility for the male of the species.

    Replies: @Kronos, @Bardon Kaldian

    https://www.vogue.co.uk/fashion/article/margaret-thatcher-handbag

    How Margaret Thatcher Turned Her Handbag Into A Weapon

    https://medium.com/exploring-history/the-semiotics-of-thatchers-handbag-5a8a4dfa5652

    The Semiotics of Thatcher’s Handbag

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-11518330

    ‘I was handbagged by Mrs Thatcher’

    • Thanks: vhrm
  60. @jon

    "Whatever you may think of the value of IQ tests it is surely relevant to a conversation about equality that as many as 16% of our species have an IQ below 85 while about 2% ..."
     
    Of our species, yes, but worldwide, isn't it closer to 50%?

    Replies: @Rob McX, @AnotherDad, @Charlotte

    Of our species, yes, but worldwide, isn’t it closer to 50%?

    Not there yet but rising fast!

  61. @Buzz Mohawk
    Another good part comes at the end:

    "a woman who knew all about soft power,

    and hard power,

    and above all about the deep, Freudian terror that every man possesses

    of the inner recesses

    of a handbag."

    Replies: @Dieter Kief, @YetAnotherAnon, @anon

    above all about the deep, Freudian terror that every man possesses
    of the inner recesses
    of a handbag.”

    Every AFC beta-boy wimp. That old wimpy perv Freud? Scared of the purse?

    Of the purse?

    Lol.

    • Thanks: Gary in Gramercy
    • Replies: @Gary in Gramercy
    @anon

    It was a BIG purse. Woofuh must of got lost in there...

    ("If the purse is fat/that's where it's at!")

  62. @Lot
    “16% of the world have an IQ below 85”

    Does Boris really think that? He seemed to know the standard deviation, but doesn’t know the 100 mean only applies to white NW Europeans?

    Replies: @Kronos, @AnotherDad

    “16% of the world have an IQ below 85”

    Does Boris really think that? He seemed to know the standard deviation, but doesn’t know the 100 mean only applies to white NW Europeans?

    C’mon he’s not going there, even if he has some sense of it. (Who knows.) His numbers are what he’s been briefed with.

    ~~

    I’m onboard with Steve that the cornflakes thing seems kind of sideways. But overall Boris’s presentation here strikes me as quite a bit more intelligent than what we get from American politicians. Easy to draw out a few points:

    — You need some inequality to make people compete/produce. And you need winners to milk. (There’s no milk if no one’s gone milking.)

    — There’s a natural inequality of talent.
    – A 1/6 of the population is really pretty stupid. (And can’t contribute much.)
    – A very small fraction has the smarts to grab opportunities and grab outsized rewards.

    — Worldwide economic competition is heating up. There are fewer protected areas. This heightened competition sorts on natural ability even more than before.

    Not exactly rocket science points–should be stuff everyone understands by high school–but at least actually intelligent/true–unlike 99% of our American politicians spew.

    I thought the Thatcher handbag wrap was pretty insipid. Maybe it was a Thatcher thing and some sort of paean to Thatcher was required? But anytime a guy trots out the whole fear-of-woman thing it’s just lame and pathetic. I think there are all sorts of issues around women in the West right now, but isn’t because they are so awesome.

    • Replies: @vhrm
    @AnotherDad


    I’m onboard with Steve that the cornflakes thing seems kind of sideways.
     
    He messed it up, imo, because he didn't explain what he meant, afaict.

    What the analogy depends on is that if you have a bag (or jar) of similar density different sized items, when you shake it stratifies by size. The big ones tend go to the top and the small ones to the bottom.

    I think there wasn't enough in the speech to lay out that and that he was equating IQ with flake size and vertical position with level of economic success.

    He didn't need to sleep out all out, but at least a little more..
    as is I think the only way you'd know what the heck he was saying is if you'd heard that analogy, or something like it, before.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief

  63. @Buzz Mohawk
    @Dieter Kief

    Yes. You have elaborated very well on my point. Thank you!


    (A man of true wits and talents).
     
    A description of both Boris and you, sir.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief

    I might not have elaborated on your point if you would not have displayed these crucial handbag-lines so nicely. So – double thanks back, Buzz Mohawk!

    (Most don’t seem to get this handbag double-talk of Boris Johnson – but simply ignore they can’t either; there is something in this strange story which makes them refer to it even though they think it makes no sense. – That’s how you win people over – an old observation of this Sigmund Freud man one more time: As soon as people start to fantasize about you, the therapeutic pact is sealed. – Don’t worry about the kind of phantasies, he said to his colleagues, the more important thing is: They have taken the bite!
    (This story is a footnote about the connection of individual and social psychology too – a thing which in my eyes is real, but in the eyes of lots of people is not. I guess that this can’t be any other way.)

  64. @The Last Real Calvinist
    @Buzz Mohawk

    There's a strong argument to be made that the coming waves of AI will be harder on the administrative middle and even upper-middle classes than on the 'hands-on' working class.

    Lots of legal procedures, medical diagnostics, routine business transactions, and so on will be easier and easier to automate. The reign of the midwit symbol-manipulators will be undermined.

    I also suspect more and more people, exhausted by the thin virtuality of social media, will become obsessed with the 'authenticity' of their day-to-day experiences, and will seek out and pay for 'artisanal' interactions not just in restaurants and bars, but also in shopping, health care, and so on. You can see this happening right now with food -- products that can be marketed as the products of personalized curating and care command premium prices. This demand is bound to spread.

    You do not need to be especially intelligent to find a niche in this kind of economy.

    Replies: @anonymous, @Inquiring Mind, @epebble, @vhrm, @anon

    The reign of the midwit symbol-manipulators will be undermined.

    You do not need to be especially intelligent to find a niche in this kind of economy.

    The current midwit symbol-manipulators will have a lower relative level of income perhaps, but they’ll take the less prestigious job currently occupied by some lower IQ person whether they can truly do it better or can weasel their way into it better or whatever. And that person will push out people below them, etc. It may be that all janitors etc are 100+iq but I don’t think you’ll see higher avg income for say 90-100 than 100-110 than 110-120

    in the medium to long term it will continue to be individuals on the left side of the curve who will continue tohave the least economic value even if the white collar jobs go away and many people’s value decreases and you have to have an iq of 110 and a bachelor’s degree to even get a minimum wage job.

  65. @Achmed E. Newman
    I'm not a fan of this English cuisine, by any means, but I sure like the old Rod Stewart music, from before he became big in America.

    Sing a song of six-pence for your sake,
    and drink a bottle full of rye.
    Four and twenty blackbirds in a cake,
    and bake 'em all in a pie.


    (Give me Life cereal over blackbird pie, any day.)

    Handbags and Gladrags I don't even want to know what a gladrag is, some sort of feminine product made by the ziploc bag manufacturer, perhaps? Anyway, the British The Office show used an instrumental piece of this song as its intro music.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqgAZhXpHV0

    Replies: @Bill Jones, @Jonathan Mason, @Alden, @ScarletNumber, @Kratoklastes

    Glad rags is a 19th century term for both men’s and women’s dress up clothes. Get off work at the dirty factory wash up, put on your glad rags and go have some fun on Saturday night.

    Another frontier in trans gender equality. Stores are told to abolish separate gender sections for children’s clothes. That’s so little boys who are really little girls can whine and nag for pink dresses without feeling out of place.

    That will make shopping for boys clothes even harder. It’s almost impossible to find plain boys T shirts sweatshirts and jackets without cartoon characters and black ball team logos.

    Carter’s is a big baby &toddler clothes company. Their online catalog has a big picture of 2 3 year olds cuddling. And surprise surprise !!! They’re a blonde girl and a black boy.

    So f’em.

    • Thanks: Dieter Kief
  66. @Cortes
    Marginally better than a box of chocolates.

    The adoration of the Maggie continues to baffle me. I haven’t the words to express the depressing memory of rail journeys back and forth from home to college through the industrial Black Country of the English Midlands and seeing the progressive demolition of hundreds of engineering factories in the early 1980s.

    Replies: @Gordo, @James O'Meara, @Philip Owen

    Indeed. And IIRC, despite being the longest serving PM (until Major), she never once got as much as 40% of the vote. Nevertheless, American cons continue to idolize her. It provides the best evidence for the Frankfuter theory that conservatism is a product of poor toilet training, or some kind of “Beat me, Mommy” fantasy.

  67. @AnotherDad
    @Lot


    “16% of the world have an IQ below 85”

    Does Boris really think that? He seemed to know the standard deviation, but doesn’t know the 100 mean only applies to white NW Europeans?
     
    C'mon he's not going there, even if he has some sense of it. (Who knows.) His numbers are what he's been briefed with.

    ~~

    I'm onboard with Steve that the cornflakes thing seems kind of sideways. But overall Boris's presentation here strikes me as quite a bit more intelligent than what we get from American politicians. Easy to draw out a few points:

    -- You need some inequality to make people compete/produce. And you need winners to milk. (There's no milk if no one's gone milking.)

    -- There's a natural inequality of talent.
    - A 1/6 of the population is really pretty stupid. (And can't contribute much.)
    - A very small fraction has the smarts to grab opportunities and grab outsized rewards.

    -- Worldwide economic competition is heating up. There are fewer protected areas. This heightened competition sorts on natural ability even more than before.

    Not exactly rocket science points--should be stuff everyone understands by high school--but at least actually intelligent/true--unlike 99% of our American politicians spew.


    I thought the Thatcher handbag wrap was pretty insipid. Maybe it was a Thatcher thing and some sort of paean to Thatcher was required? But anytime a guy trots out the whole fear-of-woman thing it's just lame and pathetic. I think there are all sorts of issues around women in the West right now, but isn't because they are so awesome.

    Replies: @vhrm

    I’m onboard with Steve that the cornflakes thing seems kind of sideways.

    He messed it up, imo, because he didn’t explain what he meant, afaict.

    What the analogy depends on is that if you have a bag (or jar) of similar density different sized items, when you shake it stratifies by size. The big ones tend go to the top and the small ones to the bottom.

    I think there wasn’t enough in the speech to lay out that and that he was equating IQ with flake size and vertical position with level of economic success.

    He didn’t need to sleep out all out, but at least a little more..
    as is I think the only way you’d know what the heck he was saying is if you’d heard that analogy, or something like it, before.

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    @vhrm


    I think there wasn’t enough in the speech to lay out that and that he was equating IQ with flake size
     
    The rule of political rhetorics (and that's what we're at here, mind you) is not to be exact, or some such but to win people over without getting the sack.

    (And he insured himself in a really funny and bright way against being sacked here - by hinting at the recesses in Margret Thatcher's handbag (for detailed information just how the f**k that word (and it did work - seamlessly) you might want to look at my comment No. 24 above and at Buzz Mohawk's comment No. 9.)

  68. @YetAnotherAnon
    @Buzz Mohawk

    "the deep, Freudian terror that every man possesses of the inner recesses of a handbag"

    If I'm looking for something and my wife says "look in my handbag" I always reply "you look for it - I'm not going in there".

    It's like the Tardis in there.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

    Remember, we are from Mars, and they are from Venus. I can look right into the fridge and not see something that she placed right there. They have ways of making things invisible to us.

  69. @Kronos
    @Geoffs

    For younger members, did Thatcher’s handbag have special political significance? Most female purses/handbags do have special “multidimensional properties” in terms of how much stuff you can shove into them but could Thatcher’s bag pull out a British tank? Could it have stored the Falklands?

    https://youtu.be/AivZSC9J3Rs

    Replies: @James O'Meara, @El Dato

    I vaguely recall something like that at the time (long ago!) and this recent item confirms it:

    https://www.vogue.co.uk/fashion/article/margaret-thatcher-handbag

    How Margaret Thatcher Turned Her Handbag Into A Weapon
    BY VICTORIA MOSS
    27 NOVEMBER 2020

  70. @anon
    @Buzz Mohawk

    above all about the deep, Freudian terror that every man possesses
    of the inner recesses
    of a handbag.”


    Every AFC beta-boy wimp. That old wimpy perv Freud? Scared of the purse?

    Of the purse?

    Lol.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Rrlm01OIZ4

    Replies: @Gary in Gramercy

    It was a BIG purse. Woofuh must of got lost in there…

    (“If the purse is fat/that’s where it’s at!”)

  71. @JohnnyWalker123
    I'll see you guys at the iSteve Christmas party, to be held at the Hyatt Regency.

    https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1362457109296803846

    Until then, I can't go out. Doctor's orders.

    Replies: @res

    Is there a reason anybody still takes what Fauci says seriously? I guess he is useful in giving us an idea what our “elites” have planned for us, but otherwise…

    Given how sharply case and death rates are falling in the US right now
    https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
    along with the increasing immunity from all of the vaccinations I think this summer will be less of a concern than Fauci seems to be indicating.

    This page has some useful data and analysis.
    https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/
    One thing I don’t understand is why they see vaccination rates dropping so sharply in May (anyone?).

    I have two major issues with that page though. For more on these search my comments for heterogeneity and seasonality.

    1. They do not consider the likely effect of heterogeneity on the herd immunity threshold. This is even more important now that we have a vaccine and are selectively immunizing the most vulnerable.

    2. They do not consider the likely effect of seasonality on the contagiousness of the virus (which directly impacts the effective R and thus the herd immunity threshold). For whatever the reason (humidity, temperature, more time inside, vitamin D, …) looking at the past year it is clear how important that is.

    IMO, based on the past year, Fauci has things exactly wrong (big surprise there). Thanksgiving and Christmas are periods when we should be especially careful. Take a look at those DIVOC-19 US new case and death curves. The combination of seasonality along with the increased travel and socialization of the holidays is a concern (perhaps a temporary resumption of masking, etc. in mid-Nov. to mid-Jan.?). But it should be possible to largely return to normal during the late spring and summer.

    • Thanks: vhrm
    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
    @res

    Presumably, he's scared of the more contagious Covid variants. He believes those could supplant the dominant Covid strains.

    I think there's a good case to be made that supplementation (especially Vitamin D, Zinc, Melatonin, and Vitamin C), eating healthy, sleeping well, and exercising could all be excellent defenses against Covid.

    Supplementation seems especially easy. Couldn't we distribute free supplements to the general public (perhaps in a highly delicious&edible gummy form)?

    , @epebble
    @res

    IHME is projecting average daily deaths will decrease to 1,000 per day in May from current 2,000 per day. So, we are definitely on good trend. But, I think once we reach that point, people will start slacking off on masks/social distancing etc., and about a fourth of the population may forgo vaccinations for various reasons. Hence, it will be harder to go from 1,000 deaths per day to, say, 300 deaths per day, when we can believe thing are "largely back to normal."

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend

    https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths

    Replies: @res

    , @Dieter Kief
    @res


    it should be possible to largely return to normal during the late spring and summer.
     
    That's what has almost been done in Switzerland and in Sweden this winter and guess what?- Their numbers of hospitalized CO-19 patients and their numbers of new cases are melting like the snow in spring!

    For details about Sweden:

    https://hailtoyou.wordpress.com/2020/11/29/against-the-corona-panic-part-xix-wuhan-corona-vs-previous-flu-waves-sweden-quantified-on-near-final-data-for-2020/#comment-47231

    Switzerland:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/switzerland/

  72. On topic, I think, the South African Government has as part of its lockdown strategies for CV19 instituted several total alcohol sales bans – including export sales bans – which has caused huge grief for winegrowers and their employees as well as for employees of the the quasi-monopoly giant AB InBev, whose South African Breweries dominate that market.

    I learned this in the Guardian, where a GoodWhite called Fiona Beckett is urging us to buy lots of SA Fairtrade wine, because “the South African wine industry, which accounts for 77% of all Fairtrade purchases, really needs our support right now. The country’s producers have had an especially tough 12 months, having just emerged from another ban on domestic sales, and face a distinctly uncertain future“.

    https://www.theguardian.com/food/2021/feb/19/why-south-africa-winemakers-need-our-help-now-more-than-ever

    I still can’t help but feel that, given the focus last year on Black Lives Matter, producers and retailers have missed an opportunity to do more. Bosman aside, whose richly flavoured Adama Red (£10 Co-op, 14%) I’ve recommended before, Fairtrade wines are still largely made by white winemakers. It would have been good to see more of an effort to push winemakers of colour.

    I said she was a GoodWhite… but here’s the article she links to show the devastation wreaked on winemakers and their (usually poorer and darker) employees.

    http://www.the-buyer.net/opinion/bruce-jack-covid-19-devastating-impact-on-south-africa/

    By the end of January, I was entrenched. I thought I was ready for harvest and ready for a lockdown.

    Of course, I wasn’t ready. I was blindsided by two things – the almost country-wide dysfunctionality of municipal support structures and a blanket alcohol ban, including a ban on wine exports, which was a kick in the stomach.

    We have argued that the widespread destruction of wealth and the dismantling of the economy by the Zuma-led ANC had already led to the hopelessness and misery we see. And this reality is a major reason for alcohol abuse, not the other way around. South Africa’s deep societal ills require a more holistic solution. An honest reflection on the root causes is the first step. That introspection may eventually materialise, but not in the short term.

    It is also common knowledge that the now endemic, deep corruption had already, prior to the lockdown, destroyed most societal safety nets affecting the poor – including hospital capacity and social welfare efficacy.

    I watched how things unravelled at municipal level as the brutal realities of lockdown hit. Of South Africa’s 278 municipalities, only 21 had a clean audit for the 2019 financial year. Arrests are rare despite the recent Auditor General’s report exposing over R32-billion in irregular expenditure – for ‘irregular expenditure’ read illegally awarded tenders (often for family), blatant theft, material misstatements, refusing to hand over documentation, embezzlement, etc…

    In our hour of need, most local government representatives country-wide, on full pay, disappeared behind discontinued mobile ‘phone numbers.

    Piecemeal workers, like those sub-contracted by the construction sector, are usually paid on a weekly basis. Within a few weeks of the lockdown many had run out of cash. When municipalities were approached to help arrange food relief, the vast majority claimed it was not their responsibility. And in poor, rural farming areas like ours it was the farmers, churches, mosques, charity and civil organisations (like Rotary, Gift-of-the Givers and Red Cross) who responded to the unfolding humanitarian disaster.

    It was easy to predict that alcohol will be banned again when the second wave became problematic, so we were mentally a bit better prepared when, on December 28 2020, the third ban became reality. This week, on January, 11 it has been extended indefinitely.

    Because of the near complete destruction of our public services by Zuma-led ANC corruption, the government are left with no other options, but to ban alcohol to free up already pressurised hospital capacity. But it’s like using a sledgehammer to instal a little brass screw, and the long-term socio-economic devastation it will cause in the wine industry will far outweigh the damage Covid-19 will cause to the same area.

    The moral disintegration of the ANC accelerated during the Zuma years. If the country’s coffers hadn’t been looted, if proper care had been exercised by the ANC office-bearers responsible for the well-being of our people, we would have had sufficient hospital capacity to handle this pandemic and we wouldn’t have had to shut down the wine industry.

    Mr Jack’s been feeding thousands of poor people while Ms Beckett’s been striking attitudes in the Guardian.

  73. Anonymous[302] • Disclaimer says:

    What is the rough American equivalent of Loadsamoney? Trump didn’t start out trying to appropriate and merchandise the meme realm but shrewdly intuited, after a bankruptcy or two, that it was probably the best avenue available to him to transition from run-of-the-NYC-mill rich jerk mocked routinely by Spy Magazine to being a West Coast-style, People/Enquirer, four-quadrant celebrity, complete with unironic O’Jays theme music. He didn’t exactly squander generations of cachet by milking the universal bling-worship/Scarface side of the human psyche, thanks to U.S.’s herd immunity against the Loadsamoney joke — not for the boilerplate Horatio Alger “propositional nation” vaccines proffered by Free Market Conservative media organs, mind you. Our own blue-stocking gentry liberals despise low-class tackiness as much as their U.K. cognates do, but the latter don’t have to worry about the local critical mass of NAM’s who love love LOVE hedonistic overdrive.

    Above all things our libs are terrified to be seen as mean toward NAM’s especially during the enthusiastic, non-rioting mode of race relations; thus leaving crass materialism’s natural outlet in increasingly self-parodic gangsta rap, which took till the late ’90s to finally conquer “conscious,” nostalgic, and techno-funk rivals for the crown of USDA Grade-B Blackness. If like Trump you’re no longer welcome with the blue-stockings you may more easily spot this $100 bill lying on the street.

  74. @res
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Is there a reason anybody still takes what Fauci says seriously? I guess he is useful in giving us an idea what our "elites" have planned for us, but otherwise...

    Given how sharply case and death rates are falling in the US right now
    https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
    along with the increasing immunity from all of the vaccinations I think this summer will be less of a concern than Fauci seems to be indicating.

    This page has some useful data and analysis.
    https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/
    One thing I don't understand is why they see vaccination rates dropping so sharply in May (anyone?).

    I have two major issues with that page though. For more on these search my comments for heterogeneity and seasonality.

    1. They do not consider the likely effect of heterogeneity on the herd immunity threshold. This is even more important now that we have a vaccine and are selectively immunizing the most vulnerable.

    2. They do not consider the likely effect of seasonality on the contagiousness of the virus (which directly impacts the effective R and thus the herd immunity threshold). For whatever the reason (humidity, temperature, more time inside, vitamin D, ...) looking at the past year it is clear how important that is.

    IMO, based on the past year, Fauci has things exactly wrong (big surprise there). Thanksgiving and Christmas are periods when we should be especially careful. Take a look at those DIVOC-19 US new case and death curves. The combination of seasonality along with the increased travel and socialization of the holidays is a concern (perhaps a temporary resumption of masking, etc. in mid-Nov. to mid-Jan.?). But it should be possible to largely return to normal during the late spring and summer.

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123, @epebble, @Dieter Kief

    Presumably, he’s scared of the more contagious Covid variants. He believes those could supplant the dominant Covid strains.

    I think there’s a good case to be made that supplementation (especially Vitamin D, Zinc, Melatonin, and Vitamin C), eating healthy, sleeping well, and exercising could all be excellent defenses against Covid.

    Supplementation seems especially easy. Couldn’t we distribute free supplements to the general public (perhaps in a highly delicious&edible gummy form)?

  75. It seems to me he is just not so eloquently stating the main idea of “The Bell Curve.” Used to be that being smart was worth something, but now it’s worth a lot. Charles Murray seems to write about this frequently and suggest solutions, including UBI.

    • Replies: @anon
    @retrotxprof

    Used to be that being smart was worth something, but now it’s worth a lot.

    Provided one is sufficiently Woke. Woke race-based ideology officially ranks higher than intelligence in our brave new society. This is a hallmark of some forms of tyranny and totalitarianism over the centuries. Maoism, Stalinism come to mind immediately.

    One problematic aspect of Wokeism - there's no path to redemption. No amount of groveling or public humiliation is enough to move a person from the bad list to the not-so-bad list. In the longer run, as the Wokies continue to chew on their own, this will have effects.

  76. @res
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Is there a reason anybody still takes what Fauci says seriously? I guess he is useful in giving us an idea what our "elites" have planned for us, but otherwise...

    Given how sharply case and death rates are falling in the US right now
    https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
    along with the increasing immunity from all of the vaccinations I think this summer will be less of a concern than Fauci seems to be indicating.

    This page has some useful data and analysis.
    https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/
    One thing I don't understand is why they see vaccination rates dropping so sharply in May (anyone?).

    I have two major issues with that page though. For more on these search my comments for heterogeneity and seasonality.

    1. They do not consider the likely effect of heterogeneity on the herd immunity threshold. This is even more important now that we have a vaccine and are selectively immunizing the most vulnerable.

    2. They do not consider the likely effect of seasonality on the contagiousness of the virus (which directly impacts the effective R and thus the herd immunity threshold). For whatever the reason (humidity, temperature, more time inside, vitamin D, ...) looking at the past year it is clear how important that is.

    IMO, based on the past year, Fauci has things exactly wrong (big surprise there). Thanksgiving and Christmas are periods when we should be especially careful. Take a look at those DIVOC-19 US new case and death curves. The combination of seasonality along with the increased travel and socialization of the holidays is a concern (perhaps a temporary resumption of masking, etc. in mid-Nov. to mid-Jan.?). But it should be possible to largely return to normal during the late spring and summer.

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123, @epebble, @Dieter Kief

    IHME is projecting average daily deaths will decrease to 1,000 per day in May from current 2,000 per day. So, we are definitely on good trend. But, I think once we reach that point, people will start slacking off on masks/social distancing etc., and about a fourth of the population may forgo vaccinations for various reasons. Hence, it will be harder to go from 1,000 deaths per day to, say, 300 deaths per day, when we can believe thing are “largely back to normal.”

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend

    https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths

    • Replies: @res
    @epebble

    Looking at your second link, notice how daily deaths went from about 1800 May 1st to about 500 July 8th. I believe that was due to seasonality with countermeasures roughly constant (or slacking off, as you propose happens when there is less worry, as we were seeing during that period).

    I see no reason to expect this years decline to be less unless people become (even more) gratuitously stupid as the death rate goes down. Even if incomplete, vaccination should significantly reduce the effective R compared to last year. If targeted effectively it should also reduce the IFR because the most vulnerable will have been vaccinated (mostly).

    The comparison I think we should be looking at is what happened from May-July of last year when few people were infected (i.e. effective R at R0, modulo countermeasures) with this year when we enter April with about 50% of people immune (per the NYT, see below)--which should cut the effective R in half (or so).

    From your data an interesting hypothetical is what would have happened if the exponential decay had continued after July 8th rather than blowing back up during the Summer of Floyd.

    The big question of the moment for me is how much of the apparent recent steep decline is reporting delays and how much is real.

    P.S. The NYT published an analysis today which is somewhat like the link I gave earlier.
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/02/20/us/us-herd-immunity-covid.html
    The objections I gave earlier apply to that as well. It is clear that they want us to be panicked through at least the summer (idiots) and will then likely use the probable seasonal uptick in cases in the fall/winter to start another round of panic.

    For anyone interested, I think this is the model PHICOR is using (based on Bruce Y. Lee involvement in both).
    The Benefits of Vaccinating With the First Available COVID-19 Coronavirus Vaccine
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7817395/

    Notice how it ignores seasonality (beyond a parenthetical comment). As far as I can tell it also ignores the targeting of vaccines to the most vulnerable (which should affect the IFR, as I observed above). These are egregious failures IMO.

    This excerpt might be of interest (see earlier QALY discussions in iSteve).


    Vaccination was considered cost effective if the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was ≤$50,000/QALY.
     
    I wonder what QALY threshold they used to evaluate whether lockdowns were cost effective. /sarc

    For any data scientists out there, they did their modeling in Microsoft Excel ; ).

    Steve, any chance you could start a thread on that NYT article and the paper?
  77. @BB753
    @brabantian

    Will the BBC become more left-wing as a result? I mean, is it even possible? Is there Chinese capital involved?

    Replies: @El Dato

    I don’t quite know what’s going on but apparently the Scottish Nationalist Party (which is actually the European Party as it demands to fly Euro flags in a brexited UK) under female leadership is conducting an internal purge against her competitor under cover of about 17 accusations of sexual misconduct that happened decades ago.

    The jury, mainly composed of women, threw the shit out.

    And now the time has come to remove Sturgeon from premises.

    It sounds like the UK is like the Ukraine, just with more money and more NATO.

    “Red” Galloway writes:

    Galloway: The epic battle within the Scottish Nationalist movement will leave Sturgeon flapping on the deck of a sinking ship

    I never had any doubt of Salmond’s innocence, because I knew him so well, and because I had seen exactly the same playbook used to attempt the annihilation of Julian Assange. In today’s world, the fastest way to discredit a radical figure is not to accuse them of shoplifting or even bank robbery, but as Salmond was, to claim he put his hand on a woman’s fully clothed hip whilst dancing.

    The London-based media have begun not just to report on the farrago, but to take legal actions in the courts to force disclosure of material which is clearly in the public interest. The Scottish media, particularly the ironically named British Broadcasting Corporation, continues to report cats stuck up trees instead of the dramatic events unfolding in courts and committees right outside their doors. But the truth will out. And next week.

  78. @Kronos
    @Geoffs

    For younger members, did Thatcher’s handbag have special political significance? Most female purses/handbags do have special “multidimensional properties” in terms of how much stuff you can shove into them but could Thatcher’s bag pull out a British tank? Could it have stored the Falklands?

    https://youtu.be/AivZSC9J3Rs

    Replies: @James O'Meara, @El Dato

    I still have to read the big book on the UK’s economic development but whenever I hear “Thatcher”

    [radio tuning]
    “…It was announced today, that the replacement for the Atlantic Conveyor the container ship lost in the Falklands conflict would be built in Japan, a spokesman for…”

  79. @El Dato
    Steve please use Grammarly!

    The future Prime Minister explains in 2013 how like [LIFE] is like a packet of cornflakes:
     
    I had some trouble parsing this.

    OT:

    The Lucasfilm lady gets ratioed to death, then the inbox is cleared:

    Lucasfilm president excoriated for talking of EMPOWERING WOMEN after firing Gina Carano, forcing Oscars to wipe comments

    https://youtu.be/ORCNv44sX10


    The Oscars posted the video on Tuesday, featuring Kennedy speaking about its scientific and technical awards. Kennedy, who fired Carano last week over “abhorrent and unacceptable” social media posts [i.e. mentioning the Holocaust which is becoming the new N-word for non-anointed] , said in the video that “women are helping to redefine science and technology in the movies, and that means a brave, bold future without limits for each and every storyteller.”
     
    Yup that CGI is emboldening, a bit too much even. It's become fucking obnoxious since at at least 2000 or so.

    ‘Star Wars’ fans responded with disgust, ripping Kennedy for her hypocrisy. The social-media beating was so severe – with dislikes outnumbering likes by 10,000 to 101 and more than 6,000 almost entirely negative comments being posted – that the Oscars disabled all reactions to the video.
     

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @David, @BenKenobi, @Wilkey

    The collapse of box office receipts for Star Wars movies is something to behold. The Farce Awokens did $2.07 billion. The Last Jedi did $1.33 billion, and The Rise of Skywalker did $1.07 billion.

    So from first to last, the inflation-adjusted box office receipts for Disney’s Star Wars trilogy fell by over 50%.

    By comparison, The Lord of the Rings trilogy actually improved with each movie, and even the much-maligned Hobbit trilogy only dropped off a little (about 7%). The Return of the King (2003) actually did $70 million more at the box office than The Rise of Skywalker (2019), and that’s before adjusting for 16 years of inflation. And Star Wars has a much broader fanbase than Tolkien.

    Kathleen Kennedy’s pathetic management of the Star Wars franchise cost Disney at least $1.7 billion in box office receipts, and God only knows how much it cost them in toy sales, and yet she still has her job.

    • Replies: @Kronos
    @Wilkey


    Kathleen Kennedy’s pathetic management of the Star Wars franchise cost Disney at least $1.7 billion in box office receipts, and God only knows how much it cost them in toy sales, and yet she still has her job.
     
    The new Star Wars film toy sales were awful. Word on the street is they actually pulled a “E.T. Atari” move and landfilled the toys in masse. (I’m actually looking at the recent news right now and “The Mandalorian” toy sales are doing quite well though.)

    https://naruto-cdn.animegami.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/18015438/hr_hasc1531eu41_h.jpg

    , @anon
    @Wilkey

    "Kathleen Kennedy’s pathetic management of the Star Wars franchise cost Disney at least $1.7 billion in box office receipts, and God only knows how much it cost them in toy sales, and yet she still has her job."

    Being a Kennedy has it's benefits if you're willing to just shut up and kiss all the right derrieres.

    Replies: @PiltdownMan

  80. @Wilkey
    @El Dato

    The collapse of box office receipts for Star Wars movies is something to behold. The Farce Awokens did $2.07 billion. The Last Jedi did $1.33 billion, and The Rise of Skywalker did $1.07 billion.

    So from first to last, the inflation-adjusted box office receipts for Disney’s Star Wars trilogy fell by over 50%.

    By comparison, The Lord of the Rings trilogy actually improved with each movie, and even the much-maligned Hobbit trilogy only dropped off a little (about 7%). The Return of the King (2003) actually did $70 million more at the box office than The Rise of Skywalker (2019), and that’s before adjusting for 16 years of inflation. And Star Wars has a much broader fanbase than Tolkien.

    Kathleen Kennedy’s pathetic management of the Star Wars franchise cost Disney at least $1.7 billion in box office receipts, and God only knows how much it cost them in toy sales, and yet she still has her job.

    Replies: @Kronos, @anon

    Kathleen Kennedy’s pathetic management of the Star Wars franchise cost Disney at least $1.7 billion in box office receipts, and God only knows how much it cost them in toy sales, and yet she still has her job.

    The new Star Wars film toy sales were awful. Word on the street is they actually pulled a “E.T. Atari” move and landfilled the toys in masse. (I’m actually looking at the recent news right now and “The Mandalorian” toy sales are doing quite well though.)

  81. When dense crowds act like soft solids

    On a late June afternoon in 2017, one of us (Bottinelli) was passing by San Carlo Square in Turin, Italy. It was a warm, beautiful day with a festive vibe as people gathered to watch a soccer championship final on a large screen. Around 10:00pm, a loud bang—perhaps a fire cracker exploding or a security barrier falling over—startled several people and triggered a stampede. The festive summer night turned tragic, with some 1500 people injured and two fatally trampled. Sadly, such low-probability, high-impact tragedies happen during the friendliest mass gatherings and with little warning.

    The crowd-dynamics research community strives to understand a broad range of human collective behavior—from stampedes like the one in San Carlo Square to pedestrian motion on sidewalks. That interdisciplinary effort has led to several advances, such as continuum hydrodynamic models that treat crowds as fluids and computer-vision techniques that detect anomalous behavior of thieves in public places. Those approaches work well when the crowd density is fairly low and people are generally able to move toward an intended destination.

    But when the density reaches the level found at rock concerts, parades, and pilgrimages, people start to bump and press against each other. The physical properties of the crowd are no longer fluid-like but instead are closer to soft solids and granular materials. At such densities, pedestrians can be modeled as self-propelled particles subject to forces that
    represent social and physical interactions. Even though those social force models are simplifications of real crowds and require careful calibration to be predictive, they can qualitatively reproduce emergent crowd dynamics (see the Quick Study by Andrea Welsh, Edwin Greco, and Flavio Fenton, Physics Today, February 2017, page 78). More generally, analogies between human crowds and physical systems have repeatedly demonstrated their utility for understanding crowd collective motion.

    https://physicstoday.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/PT.3.4302

  82. Well he’s right about one thing in this otherwise retarded speech, Britain is a “soft” power, soft as an English sponge cake, softer than Boris’s gelatinous midsection. I know he means cultural influence, but that game is over for Britain. They’re done. Now the key is for a true America First leader to come along and give them a final, fatal kick.

    • Replies: @Anon
    @Bragadocious

    Apparently Johnson still buys into "soft power". This can better be described as "influence", rather like the Romans had in the first phase of their empire.

    The problem with relying on this is that you do have to have "hard power", i.e. legions, in order to keep your influence.

    Otherwise eventually other states end up saying "You and what army?"

    , @Wilkey
    @Bragadocious

    I have one word for you:

    WTF?

    , @Wilkey
    @Bragadocious

    Eh?

    I fail to see how screwing over one of our oldest and most important allies is any part of an “America First” platform. And Britain’s cultural influence has been and will continue to be significant. They could be a genuine hard power, as well, if they wanted to be.

    An alliance with the Anglosphere nations - the USA, Britain, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand - would be the most natural way to counter China’s growing dominance. But the increasing diversity of our populations is making such an alliance less natural than it used to be. And that’s not a good thing.

  83. anon[206] • Disclaimer says:
    @The Last Real Calvinist
    @Buzz Mohawk

    There's a strong argument to be made that the coming waves of AI will be harder on the administrative middle and even upper-middle classes than on the 'hands-on' working class.

    Lots of legal procedures, medical diagnostics, routine business transactions, and so on will be easier and easier to automate. The reign of the midwit symbol-manipulators will be undermined.

    I also suspect more and more people, exhausted by the thin virtuality of social media, will become obsessed with the 'authenticity' of their day-to-day experiences, and will seek out and pay for 'artisanal' interactions not just in restaurants and bars, but also in shopping, health care, and so on. You can see this happening right now with food -- products that can be marketed as the products of personalized curating and care command premium prices. This demand is bound to spread.

    You do not need to be especially intelligent to find a niche in this kind of economy.

    Replies: @anonymous, @Inquiring Mind, @epebble, @vhrm, @anon

    “I also suspect more and more people, exhausted by the thin virtuality of social media, will become obsessed with the ‘authenticity’ of their day-to-day experiences, and will seek out and pay for ‘artisanal’ interactions not just in restaurants and bars, but also in shopping, health care, and so on. You can see this happening right now with food — products that can be marketed as the products of personalized curating and care command premium prices. This demand is bound to spread.

    You do not need to be especially intelligent to find a niche in this kind of economy.”

    You can see it so many areas and the demand will only get bigger. Great opportunities for those who are willing to learn new skills and get good at them.

  84. anon[206] • Disclaimer says:
    @Wilkey
    @El Dato

    The collapse of box office receipts for Star Wars movies is something to behold. The Farce Awokens did $2.07 billion. The Last Jedi did $1.33 billion, and The Rise of Skywalker did $1.07 billion.

    So from first to last, the inflation-adjusted box office receipts for Disney’s Star Wars trilogy fell by over 50%.

    By comparison, The Lord of the Rings trilogy actually improved with each movie, and even the much-maligned Hobbit trilogy only dropped off a little (about 7%). The Return of the King (2003) actually did $70 million more at the box office than The Rise of Skywalker (2019), and that’s before adjusting for 16 years of inflation. And Star Wars has a much broader fanbase than Tolkien.

    Kathleen Kennedy’s pathetic management of the Star Wars franchise cost Disney at least $1.7 billion in box office receipts, and God only knows how much it cost them in toy sales, and yet she still has her job.

    Replies: @Kronos, @anon

    “Kathleen Kennedy’s pathetic management of the Star Wars franchise cost Disney at least $1.7 billion in box office receipts, and God only knows how much it cost them in toy sales, and yet she still has her job.”

    Being a Kennedy has it’s benefits if you’re willing to just shut up and kiss all the right derrieres.

    • Replies: @PiltdownMan
    @anon

    She's not related to the political family.

  85. I think Mr. Johnson misses the essential point, primarily because he chose Corn Flakes rather than Raisin Bran.

    As anyone who enjoys Raisin Bran knows, the first couple of bowls from a given box contain very few raisins. Heavier, the raisins sink lower as the contents of the package settles. The distribution of raisins in a box of Raisin Bran is very suggestive.

    Anybody remember the California raisins? And what got them taken off the air?

    • Replies: @PiltdownMan
    @Anon7


    Anybody remember the California raisins? And what got them taken off the air?
     
    Production costs were higher than incremental revenues.
  86. @anon
    @Wilkey

    "Kathleen Kennedy’s pathetic management of the Star Wars franchise cost Disney at least $1.7 billion in box office receipts, and God only knows how much it cost them in toy sales, and yet she still has her job."

    Being a Kennedy has it's benefits if you're willing to just shut up and kiss all the right derrieres.

    Replies: @PiltdownMan

    She’s not related to the political family.

  87. @Anon7
    I think Mr. Johnson misses the essential point, primarily because he chose Corn Flakes rather than Raisin Bran.

    As anyone who enjoys Raisin Bran knows, the first couple of bowls from a given box contain very few raisins. Heavier, the raisins sink lower as the contents of the package settles. The distribution of raisins in a box of Raisin Bran is very suggestive.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RV-gDi_P2rs

    Anybody remember the California raisins? And what got them taken off the air?

    Replies: @PiltdownMan

    Anybody remember the California raisins? And what got them taken off the air?

    Production costs were higher than incremental revenues.

  88. @jon

    "Whatever you may think of the value of IQ tests it is surely relevant to a conversation about equality that as many as 16% of our species have an IQ below 85 while about 2% ..."
     
    Of our species, yes, but worldwide, isn't it closer to 50%?

    Replies: @Rob McX, @AnotherDad, @Charlotte

    Over 50%, according to this study reported on by James Thompson, which put global IQ at an undistinguished 82 https://www.unz.com/jthompson/world-iq-82/?highlight=World+iq.

  89. @El Dato
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Since the Internet, my ability to grok phrases has become MUCH more fluid.

    Hence, trouble parsing.


    because we do.
     
    Of course we do. But we can also fix things.

    Meanwhile, day-carrying tweet:

    Savage, tacky, or dangerous? Congresswoman’s GUN SHELF causes stir during virtual hearing


    It was Rep. Katie Porter (D-California) who kicked off the whole thing on Thursday, reporting Boebert to the 'Room Rater' account on Twitter for having a “dangerous” background during the House Natural Resources Committee hearing via Zoom.

    “Unsafe gun storage is no laughing matter,” the account replied, calling Boebert a “fascist fraulein,” a German word for unmarried woman.
     

    Technically yes. But actually, it's belittling.

    Boebert, the married mother-of-four, glossed over the insult but shot back: “Who says this is storage? These are ready for use.”
     
    https://twitter.com/laurenboebert/status/1362470458277433347

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @BenKenobi, @anon, @ScarletNumber

    Are those actual eyebrows?

    • Replies: @anon
    @ScarletNumber

    Are those actual eyebrows?

    As opposed to what, virtual CGI eyebrows?

    lol.

    C'mon...you know what some girls do with their eyebrows. I mean, really.

    https://media.giphy.com/media/Fjr6v88OPk7U4/giphy.gif

    Replies: @ScarletNumber

  90. @Achmed E. Newman
    I'm not a fan of this English cuisine, by any means, but I sure like the old Rod Stewart music, from before he became big in America.

    Sing a song of six-pence for your sake,
    and drink a bottle full of rye.
    Four and twenty blackbirds in a cake,
    and bake 'em all in a pie.


    (Give me Life cereal over blackbird pie, any day.)

    Handbags and Gladrags I don't even want to know what a gladrag is, some sort of feminine product made by the ziploc bag manufacturer, perhaps? Anyway, the British The Office show used an instrumental piece of this song as its intro music.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqgAZhXpHV0

    Replies: @Bill Jones, @Jonathan Mason, @Alden, @ScarletNumber, @Kratoklastes

    And Gervais & Merchant used the refrain as the closing theme, except they used the Fin Muir version arranged by Big George. The song itself was written by Mike d’Abo, the father of the sexy Olivia.

  91. @vhrm
    @AnotherDad


    I’m onboard with Steve that the cornflakes thing seems kind of sideways.
     
    He messed it up, imo, because he didn't explain what he meant, afaict.

    What the analogy depends on is that if you have a bag (or jar) of similar density different sized items, when you shake it stratifies by size. The big ones tend go to the top and the small ones to the bottom.

    I think there wasn't enough in the speech to lay out that and that he was equating IQ with flake size and vertical position with level of economic success.

    He didn't need to sleep out all out, but at least a little more..
    as is I think the only way you'd know what the heck he was saying is if you'd heard that analogy, or something like it, before.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief

    I think there wasn’t enough in the speech to lay out that and that he was equating IQ with flake size

    The rule of political rhetorics (and that’s what we’re at here, mind you) is not to be exact, or some such but to win people over without getting the sack.

    (And he insured himself in a really funny and bright way against being sacked here – by hinting at the recesses in Margret Thatcher’s handbag (for detailed information just how the f**k that word (and it did work – seamlessly) you might want to look at my comment No. 24 above and at Buzz Mohawk’s comment No. 9.)

  92. @res
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Is there a reason anybody still takes what Fauci says seriously? I guess he is useful in giving us an idea what our "elites" have planned for us, but otherwise...

    Given how sharply case and death rates are falling in the US right now
    https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
    along with the increasing immunity from all of the vaccinations I think this summer will be less of a concern than Fauci seems to be indicating.

    This page has some useful data and analysis.
    https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/
    One thing I don't understand is why they see vaccination rates dropping so sharply in May (anyone?).

    I have two major issues with that page though. For more on these search my comments for heterogeneity and seasonality.

    1. They do not consider the likely effect of heterogeneity on the herd immunity threshold. This is even more important now that we have a vaccine and are selectively immunizing the most vulnerable.

    2. They do not consider the likely effect of seasonality on the contagiousness of the virus (which directly impacts the effective R and thus the herd immunity threshold). For whatever the reason (humidity, temperature, more time inside, vitamin D, ...) looking at the past year it is clear how important that is.

    IMO, based on the past year, Fauci has things exactly wrong (big surprise there). Thanksgiving and Christmas are periods when we should be especially careful. Take a look at those DIVOC-19 US new case and death curves. The combination of seasonality along with the increased travel and socialization of the holidays is a concern (perhaps a temporary resumption of masking, etc. in mid-Nov. to mid-Jan.?). But it should be possible to largely return to normal during the late spring and summer.

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123, @epebble, @Dieter Kief

    it should be possible to largely return to normal during the late spring and summer.

    That’s what has almost been done in Switzerland and in Sweden this winter and guess what?- Their numbers of hospitalized CO-19 patients and their numbers of new cases are melting like the snow in spring!

    For details about Sweden:

    https://hailtoyou.wordpress.com/2020/11/29/against-the-corona-panic-part-xix-wuhan-corona-vs-previous-flu-waves-sweden-quantified-on-near-final-data-for-2020/#comment-47231

    Switzerland:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/switzerland/

    • Thanks: Achmed E. Newman, res
  93. Anon[244] • Disclaimer says:
    @Bragadocious
    Well he's right about one thing in this otherwise retarded speech, Britain is a "soft" power, soft as an English sponge cake, softer than Boris's gelatinous midsection. I know he means cultural influence, but that game is over for Britain. They're done. Now the key is for a true America First leader to come along and give them a final, fatal kick.

    Replies: @Anon, @Wilkey, @Wilkey

    Apparently Johnson still buys into “soft power”. This can better be described as “influence”, rather like the Romans had in the first phase of their empire.

    The problem with relying on this is that you do have to have “hard power”, i.e. legions, in order to keep your influence.

    Otherwise eventually other states end up saying “You and what army?”

  94. @Bragadocious
    Well he's right about one thing in this otherwise retarded speech, Britain is a "soft" power, soft as an English sponge cake, softer than Boris's gelatinous midsection. I know he means cultural influence, but that game is over for Britain. They're done. Now the key is for a true America First leader to come along and give them a final, fatal kick.

    Replies: @Anon, @Wilkey, @Wilkey

    I have one word for you:

    WTF?

  95. @epebble
    @res

    IHME is projecting average daily deaths will decrease to 1,000 per day in May from current 2,000 per day. So, we are definitely on good trend. But, I think once we reach that point, people will start slacking off on masks/social distancing etc., and about a fourth of the population may forgo vaccinations for various reasons. Hence, it will be harder to go from 1,000 deaths per day to, say, 300 deaths per day, when we can believe thing are "largely back to normal."

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend

    https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths

    Replies: @res

    Looking at your second link, notice how daily deaths went from about 1800 May 1st to about 500 July 8th. I believe that was due to seasonality with countermeasures roughly constant (or slacking off, as you propose happens when there is less worry, as we were seeing during that period).

    I see no reason to expect this years decline to be less unless people become (even more) gratuitously stupid as the death rate goes down. Even if incomplete, vaccination should significantly reduce the effective R compared to last year. If targeted effectively it should also reduce the IFR because the most vulnerable will have been vaccinated (mostly).

    The comparison I think we should be looking at is what happened from May-July of last year when few people were infected (i.e. effective R at R0, modulo countermeasures) with this year when we enter April with about 50% of people immune (per the NYT, see below)–which should cut the effective R in half (or so).

    From your data an interesting hypothetical is what would have happened if the exponential decay had continued after July 8th rather than blowing back up during the Summer of Floyd.

    The big question of the moment for me is how much of the apparent recent steep decline is reporting delays and how much is real.

    P.S. The NYT published an analysis today which is somewhat like the link I gave earlier.
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/02/20/us/us-herd-immunity-covid.html
    The objections I gave earlier apply to that as well. It is clear that they want us to be panicked through at least the summer (idiots) and will then likely use the probable seasonal uptick in cases in the fall/winter to start another round of panic.

    For anyone interested, I think this is the model PHICOR is using (based on Bruce Y. Lee involvement in both).
    The Benefits of Vaccinating With the First Available COVID-19 Coronavirus Vaccine
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7817395/

    Notice how it ignores seasonality (beyond a parenthetical comment). As far as I can tell it also ignores the targeting of vaccines to the most vulnerable (which should affect the IFR, as I observed above). These are egregious failures IMO.

    This excerpt might be of interest (see earlier QALY discussions in iSteve).

    Vaccination was considered cost effective if the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was ≤$50,000/QALY.

    I wonder what QALY threshold they used to evaluate whether lockdowns were cost effective. /sarc

    For any data scientists out there, they did their modeling in Microsoft Excel ; ).

    Steve, any chance you could start a thread on that NYT article and the paper?

  96. @Bragadocious
    Well he's right about one thing in this otherwise retarded speech, Britain is a "soft" power, soft as an English sponge cake, softer than Boris's gelatinous midsection. I know he means cultural influence, but that game is over for Britain. They're done. Now the key is for a true America First leader to come along and give them a final, fatal kick.

    Replies: @Anon, @Wilkey, @Wilkey

    Eh?

    I fail to see how screwing over one of our oldest and most important allies is any part of an “America First” platform. And Britain’s cultural influence has been and will continue to be significant. They could be a genuine hard power, as well, if they wanted to be.

    An alliance with the Anglosphere nations – the USA, Britain, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand – would be the most natural way to counter China’s growing dominance. But the increasing diversity of our populations is making such an alliance less natural than it used to be. And that’s not a good thing.

  97. anon[282] • Disclaimer says:
    @retrotxprof
    It seems to me he is just not so eloquently stating the main idea of "The Bell Curve." Used to be that being smart was worth something, but now it's worth a lot. Charles Murray seems to write about this frequently and suggest solutions, including UBI.

    Replies: @anon

    Used to be that being smart was worth something, but now it’s worth a lot.

    Provided one is sufficiently Woke. Woke race-based ideology officially ranks higher than intelligence in our brave new society. This is a hallmark of some forms of tyranny and totalitarianism over the centuries. Maoism, Stalinism come to mind immediately.

    One problematic aspect of Wokeism – there’s no path to redemption. No amount of groveling or public humiliation is enough to move a person from the bad list to the not-so-bad list. In the longer run, as the Wokies continue to chew on their own, this will have effects.

  98. @ScarletNumber
    @El Dato

    Are those actual eyebrows?

    Replies: @anon

    Are those actual eyebrows?

    As opposed to what, virtual CGI eyebrows?

    lol.

    C’mon…you know what some girls do with their eyebrows. I mean, really.

    • Replies: @ScarletNumber
    @anon

    I noticed that you didn't actually answer my question, which leads me to believe that Boebert has no eyebrows. Her husband is also a creepy loser who knocked her up underage.

    Replies: @anon

  99. @anon
    @ScarletNumber

    Are those actual eyebrows?

    As opposed to what, virtual CGI eyebrows?

    lol.

    C'mon...you know what some girls do with their eyebrows. I mean, really.

    https://media.giphy.com/media/Fjr6v88OPk7U4/giphy.gif

    Replies: @ScarletNumber

    I noticed that you didn’t actually answer my question, which leads me to believe that Boebert has no eyebrows. Her husband is also a creepy loser who knocked her up underage.

    • Replies: @anon
    @ScarletNumber

    https://media.giphy.com/media/GFHJXPCoVQEec/giphy.gif

  100. @Cortes
    Marginally better than a box of chocolates.

    The adoration of the Maggie continues to baffle me. I haven’t the words to express the depressing memory of rail journeys back and forth from home to college through the industrial Black Country of the English Midlands and seeing the progressive demolition of hundreds of engineering factories in the early 1980s.

    Replies: @Gordo, @James O'Meara, @Philip Owen

    As an apprentice at one of them, I have to say that it wasn’t Maggie, it was oil and its effect on the pound. In the case of my factory, the effect of oil on the demand for large electrical machines as well. No one was building steel works, deep mines or power stations anymore. The UK could have built a new generation of nuclear power stations to save us but the miners mattered too much and there was a large anti nuclear movement.

  101. @ScarletNumber
    @anon

    I noticed that you didn't actually answer my question, which leads me to believe that Boebert has no eyebrows. Her husband is also a creepy loser who knocked her up underage.

    Replies: @anon

  102. @Achmed E. Newman
    I'm not a fan of this English cuisine, by any means, but I sure like the old Rod Stewart music, from before he became big in America.

    Sing a song of six-pence for your sake,
    and drink a bottle full of rye.
    Four and twenty blackbirds in a cake,
    and bake 'em all in a pie.


    (Give me Life cereal over blackbird pie, any day.)

    Handbags and Gladrags I don't even want to know what a gladrag is, some sort of feminine product made by the ziploc bag manufacturer, perhaps? Anyway, the British The Office show used an instrumental piece of this song as its intro music.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqgAZhXpHV0

    Replies: @Bill Jones, @Jonathan Mason, @Alden, @ScarletNumber, @Kratoklastes

    I don’t even want to know what a gladrag is

    That implies that you don’t already know what gladrags are – how can that be true?

    You must’ve just had a brain fade, because it’s not a term foreign to American English.

    Anyone who’s ever heard “Rock Around The Clock” could infer what glad rags are: that’s where I first heard the word.

    Put your glad rags on and join me, hon’
    We’ll have some fun when the clock strikes one

    • Replies: @ScarletNumber
    @Kratoklastes


    You must’ve just had a brain fade, because [glad rag is] not a term foreign to American English.
     
    No, but it's not common either. If you didn't know better, you could have thought it was a euphemism for jack rag
    , @Achmed E. Newman
    @Kratoklastes

    Mr. Krato, I HAVE heard Rock Around the Clock, thought it was well before my time, simply because it's a classic. However, not only do I not remember that specific lyric line, my chronic lyricosis would have probably had my brain filling it in with something else, since, after all, I had no idea what a glad rag is till a couple of days ago. With regards to the Rod Stewart song (and title), I just know a good melody when I hear one, and in general, the words are not nearly the most important part of a song. I didn't really care what a glad rag was.

    Back to my lyricosis again, I was one of the last to know that Jimmy Hendrix was gay, because it took me forever to understand that line about "excuse me, while I kiss this guy!"

  103. @Kratoklastes
    @Achmed E. Newman


    I don’t even want to know what a gladrag is
     
    That implies that you don't already know what gladrags are - how can that be true?

    You must've just had a brain fade, because it's not a term foreign to American English.

    Anyone who's ever heard "Rock Around The Clock" could infer what glad rags are: that's where I first heard the word.

    Put your glad rags on and join me, hon'
    We'll have some fun when the clock strikes one
     

    Replies: @ScarletNumber, @Achmed E. Newman

    You must’ve just had a brain fade, because [glad rag is] not a term foreign to American English.

    No, but it’s not common either. If you didn’t know better, you could have thought it was a euphemism for

    [MORE]
    jack rag

  104. @Kratoklastes
    @Achmed E. Newman


    I don’t even want to know what a gladrag is
     
    That implies that you don't already know what gladrags are - how can that be true?

    You must've just had a brain fade, because it's not a term foreign to American English.

    Anyone who's ever heard "Rock Around The Clock" could infer what glad rags are: that's where I first heard the word.

    Put your glad rags on and join me, hon'
    We'll have some fun when the clock strikes one
     

    Replies: @ScarletNumber, @Achmed E. Newman

    Mr. Krato, I HAVE heard Rock Around the Clock, thought it was well before my time, simply because it’s a classic. However, not only do I not remember that specific lyric line, my chronic lyricosis would have probably had my brain filling it in with something else, since, after all, I had no idea what a glad rag is till a couple of days ago. With regards to the Rod Stewart song (and title), I just know a good melody when I hear one, and in general, the words are not nearly the most important part of a song. I didn’t really care what a glad rag was.

    Back to my lyricosis again, I was one of the last to know that Jimmy Hendrix was gay, because it took me forever to understand that line about “excuse me, while I kiss this guy!”

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