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Bloomberg: Did Political Polarization Lead to the 2020 Murder Surge?
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From Bloomberg’s opinion section:

Why Is the U.S. Murder Rate Spiking?
Periods of political instability are very dangerous.

By Stephen Mihm
February 26, 2021, 4:00 AM PST

There may be a pattern to an era’s crime rate.

Stephen Mihm, an associate professor of history at the University of Georgia, is a contributor to Bloomberg Opinion.

In recent months, statistics on violent crime have confirmed a troubling trend: Homicide rates in the U.S., long on the wane

No, after a long, nice downward trend, they went up after Ferguson for the last two years of the Obama Administration. Then the Trump Administration managed to win back about half of the First BLM spike in murders. Then came the Racial Reckoning post Memorial Day 2020.

, shot upward in 2020. Early signs suggest it’s continuing. Many cities have reported new spikes in murder rates in early 2021.

Many commentators blame the pandemic for the violence. Others attribute the spike to record-breaking gun purchases or claim that protests against police brutality have undercut effective law enforcement, opening the door to mayhem.

These are seductive arguments. But if the past is any guide, they’re wrong.

Mihm’s argument is to avoid thinking about the recent past, such as the Ferguson Effect, and instead concentrate on long-ago centuries.

Instead, the spike in our murder rate is more likely the product of something else entirely: political instability.

Historians — Roger Lane, Eric Monkkonen and others — have long sought to explain why murder rates aren’t static, but rise and fall over time. This has been true in European countries as well as the U.S., even if each country has registered different rates at different times. Moreover, some killer boom-and-bust cycles last a few years; others drag on for decades.

There is one constant in all the chaos: domestic murders — spousal violence and family feuds — rarely drive spikes in the overall murder rate. Rather, the culprit is typically a surge in violence between unrelated adults. Minor disputes between friends, acquaintances and strangers resolved peacefully in the past suddenly turn lethal. But why?

In the 1990s, a handful of researchers interested in historical homicide rates — Manuel Eisner, Gary LaFree, Roger Gould and Randolph Roth — independently arrived at a similar, if startling conclusion: People’s faith in political institutions and one another are closely correlated with homicide rates. When faith falls, killings rise. …

Gary LaFree found something similar in the postwar U.S. He observed that while social scientists had amassed a treasure trove of statistical data for the second half of the 20th century, only two variables demonstrated a consistent correlation with the rise and fall of the homicide rate.

Both were measures of trust in government: questions that asked respondents whether they believed their government would do the right thing and whether they believed that most public officials are honest. When these measures declined, murders went up.

Indeed, the doubling in the murder rate in the 1960s-70s coincided with Vietnam and Watergate and a rise in conspiracy theory thriller movies. On the other hand, it also followed the triumphs of the civil rights movement, the growth of black pride/black power movements, and the triumph of liberalism on the Supreme Court, in academia, and in the various forms of the media.

Randolph Roth’s research also focused on the American case, but went much further back in time. When he examined so-called “impersonal” killings — murders between strangers or people unrelated to one another — he found a close statistical correlation in times of political crisis. He hypothesized that “state breakdowns and political crises of legitimacy produce surges in non-domestic homicides [while] the restoration of order and legitimacy produces declines in such homicides.”

His argument eventually found full expression in a book as well as a number of related articles. Roth’s collective work indicates that the Colonies, quite violent at first, became rather stable by the mid-18th century, the height of political integration into the British Empire. Things subsequently fell apart during the revolutionary era, but recovered during the 1790s, with the murder rate hitting all-time lows in the early 19th century – lower, arguably, than anywhere in Europe.

Interesting. And yet, perhaps, the Warren Court era and the First BLM Era’s Ferguson Effect might be slightly more relevant than the Federalist Era to the huge surge in murders during the, you know, Second BLM Era’s Minneapolis Effect?

… Roth argues that these fluctuations — as well as those in Europe — can best be explained by the strength or weakness of citizens’ belief in the integrity of the political order. This includes a conviction that government is stable, that the legal system is impartial, and that elected and appointed officials have a legitimate claim to power. These beliefs foster a sense of solidarity among citizens that, whatever their differences, enables them to view each other as sharing a common political identity.

So, you are saying that the fanaticism of Democratic mayors and governors to overthrow Trump in 2020 By Any Means Necessary caused them to endorse the statistically ridiculous racist calumnies against their own administrations of Black Lives Matter, leading their cities to be subjected to Burn, Loot, and Murder (BLM in practice if not in theory)?

Perhaps.

But is Mihm saying this? Or is he hoping readers will assume that its Trumpistas doing all the extra murdering?

The last year has brought a sustained attack on the legitimacy of political institutions and the fragile solidarity that defines American society. At this point, Americans are divided in ways not seen since the Civil War, with many skeptical that leaders will do the right thing. And, once again, the murder rate is rising.

But the current period is most unusual for how polarized white people are. Yet white people weren’t doing most of the incremental murdering after Memorial Day.

A simpler explanation for why blacks exuberantly murdered other blacks in such large numbers during the Racial Reckoning is because The Establishment told them that it was wrong for blacks to be hassled by the cops and right for blacks to express their feelings of righteous rage.

Probably the most likely chain of cause and effect is that the Obama’s re-election in 2012 allowed Democrats to drop the mask and freely express their anti-white racism. This in turn lead to both rising murders from Ferguson onward as blacks felt entitled to resist arrest and act out because whites would be blamed for black bad behavior. In turn, this growth in anti-white racism among Democrats caused greater polarization as whites began to notice how much they were becoming the objects of hate.

 
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  1. Donut shops. The reason for the murder spike is donut shops.

    Why do people keep looking for other explanations?

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Inquiring Mind

    I recently spoke with someone who has knowledge of the operation of my local police force. While formally there is no ticket quota, informally in the pre-Covid days the cops on patrol were expected to make at least 10 traffic stops/shift (where I live is a suburban area where it is rare to see people on foot). After Covid started, they were instructed that they no longer had to stop people for minor infractions and risk getting Covid. I've noticed that there are a huge # of cars with one headlight out.

    Traffic stops often lead to arrests. The sequence goes like this - cop stops you for burned out taillight. (Blacks are most likely to have poorly maintained cars with burned out bulbs.) He then leans into your car and notices the smell of marijuana. Based on this, he has probable cause to search your car. He searches the car and finds drugs and/or a gun and now there is another black person who is in county jail and is no longer out on the street committing crimes.

    Take away this mechanism and crime goes up because there are more criminals in circulation.

    The person I spoke with did not mention George Floyd and our township was mostly quiet while there was looting going on directly across the street in Philadelphia because the cops made a show of force. I spoke with another guy who said that during the rioting there were some rioters who had parked across the street in our township (I guess the lots were full on the Philly side) and were going to cross the street to join in the undocumented shopping. The cops approached the potential shoppers and told them that they had not committed any crime yet and were free to go but if they came back holding any merchandise they would arrest them.

    However, I'm sure that in the city that there has in fact been a retreat to the donut shop. The thing that cops want most is a quiet life. You do this shitty job for a few years and try not to get killed and then you go out on disability and collect a nice pension and pursue a 2nd career. Spending 10+ years in the penitentiary because some gentle giant has expired during some interaction with you is not part of the plan. The best way to avoid that is to have as few interactions as possible with the public. Sure if there is a 911 call you may have to respond, but there's no point in looking for trouble. In between calls, find a nice parking spot and sip your coffee. To reduce the boredom, park window to window with another cop and shoot the breeze.

  2. I assume Mihm is playing 4D chess and expecting the reader to realize that media coverage of Mike Brown, Freddie Gray, and George Floyd were the beginning of the “political instability”. Then the actions of the Democratic mayors in May and June of 2020 lead to more “political instability”.

  3. Others attribute the spike to record-breaking gun purchases

    90% of Guns Used in Crime Obtained Illegally

    https://patriotpost.us/articles/60599-90-percent-of-guns-used-in-crime-obtained-illegally-2019-01-17

  4. The 60s-90s crime wave can partly be attributed to the huge youth bulge. When a huge number of children are born and then turn into teens, the level of crime and social disorder tends to increase substantially. As birthrates fall and the population ages, crime and disorder decline.

    In America, the median American was 28.1 years old in 1970. In 1980, he was 30 years old. In 1990, he was 32.9 years old. He’s now 38.4 years old. Without massive immigration and high non-white birth rates, the change in the above figures would be even more drastic.

    Look at Europe.

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
    @JohnnyWalker123


    The 60s-90s crime wave can partly be attributed to the huge youth bulge.
     
    Yes, that's certainly part of it, but not enforcing the law and jailing offenders to the same degree we did in the forties and fifties also contributed the rapid rise of crime in the sixties and early seventies.
  5. Biden scraps Trump’s ban on green card applicants entering the US

    https://qz.com/india/1977155/biden-scraps-trumps-ban-on-green-card-applicants-entering-the-us/

    Green card applicants can finally step out of their limbo.

    On Wednesday (Feb. 25), US president Joe Biden revoked Donald Trump’s June 2020 proclamation freezing many green card applicants from returning to the US. The ban—which was initially meant to last until the end of 2020 and later extended till March 31, 2021—was issued by the Trump administration as a move to protect US workers from rising unemployment amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

    But while overturning the ban, Biden said that shutting the door on legal immigration isn’t beneficial to the US. “To the contrary, it harms the United States, including by preventing certain family members of United States citizens and lawful permanent residents from joining their families here,” he wrote in his proclamation. Additionally, the freeze “also harms industries in the United States that utilise talent from around the world,” Biden acknowledged.

  6. Blacks are killing one another at surprisingly higher rates than in previous years. As the low-life black gangbangers doing the killing know nothing about politics or government or news events (other than blacks dying in police confrontations), I fail to see how the varying optimistic or pessimistic political sentiments of the white majority could have anything to do with the murder rate as the professors referenced here make use of to explain.

    On the other hand, Steve’s theory that Black Lives Matter being given carte blanche to riot in various cities emboldened gangbangers all over the country to act out seems tenuous. I admit I can’t envision the mind-set of an uneducated 75 IQ black teenager selling drugs and fathering children on his baby mamas but it seems unlikely that he knows or cares anything about the world outside of his neighborhood. He might have heard that the judicial system is treating felons lightly but I fail to see any connection between vaguely being aware of that fact and giving in to his anger to kill someone he hates.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Anonymouse

    So what is your explanation then?

    As low information as ghetto youth is, the news of the outside world reaches them, though often in distorted form, as filtered by social media and rap songs, etc. Much of the looting this summer was driven by coordinated social media posts - "Let's all come to such and such mall at 10 PM and loot it." If enough people showed up (and they often did) they could overcome the security and empty the place out.

    Achmed has the answer below. To a ghetto youth, "Black Lives Matter" means "MY Life Matters". My life matters means that I am a proud Black man, a descendant of kings and a veritable king myself and yet I have been badly treated by society and have nothing and no future prospects. Nor can I realistically expect that any help will be forthcoming from anyone, especially not from whitey. Whitey would just as soon see me dead - he would step on my neck like they did to George Floyd if they could. Sure Barack Obama is talking about getting me my reparations check but I'll believe it when I see it. Therefore, the only way I can obtain and guard what I deserve is thru self-help. No one is going to give me an iPhone or a car, so I will just take one. If someone (of any color) offends my royal personage and steps on my royal Nikes, I will take immediate action to avenge the offense. And so on. I am a Proud Black Man whose Life Matters and I will not allow myself to be treated like garbage anymore by anyone. That is the Lesson of George Floyd.

  7. I don’t think we’re supposed to notice that the additional murders are black on black.

  8. It’s a stone-cold whodunnit.

  9. Indeed, the doubling in the murder rate in the 1960s-70s coincided with Vietnam and Watergate and a rise in conspiracy theory thriller movies. On the other hand, it also followed the triumphs of the civil rights movement, the growth of black pride/black power movements, and the triumph of liberalism on the Supreme Court, in academia, and in the various forms of the media.

    Daniel Amnéus chalked it up to the rapid rise in bastardy. Just count off about fifteen years, when the hormones hit the fatherless, and everything goes to pot.

  10. Other than with his speculation about the state of the Colonies and the US a few centuries ago, from the excerpts it seems this guy’s main correlation is impersonal killings to survey question answers. What a crock!

    You’ve got a much better handle on this, Steve, than these guys. You didn’t mention it this time, but you’ve got something with the trauma care thing, in which, what would have been murders 40 years ago, are often not today. Yeah, the Civil Rites era then, then a slow good trend due to both demographics and trauma care, and now this encouragement to violence by BLM/antifa, along with lower police presence and lower incentives for police and other citizens to control black people.

    Here’s my best correlation:

    Murder rates go up proportionally with black self-esteem.

    • Agree: Redneck farmer
    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Achmed E. Newman


    Murder rates go up proportionally with black self-esteem.

     

    All those runaway posters offering generous bounties no doubt inflated their egos to the bursting point. A white man who didn't show up for work would be written off as not worth the effort to get back.

    $500 in 1857 is $15,000 today. That will get you a small car-- which could actually do something for you.

    What was wrong with those people? This is how chain letters and pyramid schemes work.
  11. Anonymous[110] • Disclaimer says:

    More importantly, “murder” is not fungible in these historical comparisons. Were American colonials killing random old people on cobblestone streets with flying tackles for no ostensible reason?

    More likely, much of the murder back then was due to drunken brawls and disputes in the local tavern, disputes between rival merchants or business partners, domestic violence, mob violence, etc.

    Most people are primarily concerned about murder in the public sphere and commons. The kind of stochastic, predatory violence and murder that takes place in public streets among strangers. And this is the kind of violence and murder that blacks dominate today.

    Murder in the private sphere or relatively private sphere such as domestic murder or between acquaintances or colleagues is tragic, but it doesn’t completely undermine society and civilization.

  12. @Achmed E. Newman
    Other than with his speculation about the state of the Colonies and the US a few centuries ago, from the excerpts it seems this guy's main correlation is impersonal killings to survey question answers. What a crock!

    You've got a much better handle on this, Steve, than these guys. You didn't mention it this time, but you've got something with the trauma care thing, in which, what would have been murders 40 years ago, are often not today. Yeah, the Civil Rites era then, then a slow good trend due to both demographics and trauma care, and now this encouragement to violence by BLM/antifa, along with lower police presence and lower incentives for police and other citizens to control black people.

    Here's my best correlation:

    Murder rates go up proportionally with black self-esteem.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Murder rates go up proportionally with black self-esteem.

    All those runaway posters offering generous bounties no doubt inflated their egos to the bursting point. A white man who didn’t show up for work would be written off as not worth the effort to get back.

    $500 in 1857 is $15,000 today. That will get you a small car– which could actually do something for you.

    What was wrong with those people? This is how chain letters and pyramid schemes work.

    • Thanks: HammerJack
  13. Or did the murder surge of 2020 merely increase political polarization?

    Which way does the arrow of causation point?

  14. Indeed, the doubling in the murder rate in the 1960s-70s coincided with Vietnam and Watergate and a rise in conspiracy theory thriller movies. On the other hand, it also followed the triumphs of the civil rights movement, the growth of black pride/black power movements, and the triumph of liberalism on the Supreme Court, in academia, and in the various forms of the media.

    Thomas Sowell once reported this very interesting and relevant fact: US and state prisons incarcerated slightly fewer people at the end of the nineteen-sixties than at the beginning of the nineteen-sixties, even with a 50% rise in the homicide rate, a doubling of property crimes and burglaries, and a near doubling of forcible rape over the decade.

    That fact is even more surprising when you consider the U.S. population climbed more than 2o million in those ten years and, in the second half of the sixties, the Baby Boom began to swell the ranks of the young males who are most likely to commit crimes.

    That fact alone is sufficient in my opinion to explain why crime got out of control (but probably doesn’t explain why the increase in incarceration that began in the seventies was slow to tamp it back down).

  15. The Establishment also told blacks that the justice system and law enforcement were Out to Get Them. It told blacks that the system could not be trusted to do the right thing for black people.

    That fits their thesis very well. Of course, “consistent correlation” is a long way from “only possible cause”. And of course these guys approve of the message that the system is out to get blacks, so they’re going to try to frame July’s murders as a result of non-murdering Republicans’ mistrust of the November election results instead.

    Because some kinds of distrust in the system are seditious, and others are noble. It all depends on who is doing what to whom.

    • Agree: HammerJack
  16. @JohnnyWalker123
    The 60s-90s crime wave can partly be attributed to the huge youth bulge. When a huge number of children are born and then turn into teens, the level of crime and social disorder tends to increase substantially. As birthrates fall and the population ages, crime and disorder decline.

    In America, the median American was 28.1 years old in 1970. In 1980, he was 30 years old. In 1990, he was 32.9 years old. He's now 38.4 years old. Without massive immigration and high non-white birth rates, the change in the above figures would be even more drastic.

    Look at Europe.

    https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/images/d/d2/Median_age_of_the_population%2C_1990_and_2016_%28years%29_BYIE18.png

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

    The 60s-90s crime wave can partly be attributed to the huge youth bulge.

    Yes, that’s certainly part of it, but not enforcing the law and jailing offenders to the same degree we did in the forties and fifties also contributed the rapid rise of crime in the sixties and early seventies.

  17. Speaking of medical science saving lives:

    Aberdeen physicist behind first full-body MRI scanner dies.

    A British physicist known for his pioneering work in medical imaging has died at the age of 94.

    Prof John Mallard notably led a team at the University of Aberdeen which developed the first whole-body Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) scanner.

    He also helped develop Positron Emission Tomography (PET) which can produce detailed three-dimensional images of the inside of the body.

    He was appointed the university’s first professor of medical physics in 1965.

    Born in Northampton, Prof Mallard published work in a journal in 1964 on his research which indicated that magnetic resonance might be able to diagnose cancer.

    Colleagues said this “went largely unnoticed”.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-56217687

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Joe Stalin

    I've had MRI and PET scans, as well as CAT scans. Somebody should think up an acronym for DOG scan and invent it.

  18. TDS sufferers are constantly shooting themselves in the foot with their desire to have things both ways while lecturing haughtily about principle, but between censorship and their own brainwashing they are unable to see this. Trump and his supporters will only become more important to them the longer he is out of office.

    • Agree: Harry Baldwin
  19. @Joe Stalin
    Speaking of medical science saving lives:

    Aberdeen physicist behind first full-body MRI scanner dies.

    A British physicist known for his pioneering work in medical imaging has died at the age of 94.

    Prof John Mallard notably led a team at the University of Aberdeen which developed the first whole-body Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) scanner.

    He also helped develop Positron Emission Tomography (PET) which can produce detailed three-dimensional images of the inside of the body.

    He was appointed the university's first professor of medical physics in 1965.

    Born in Northampton, Prof Mallard published work in a journal in 1964 on his research which indicated that magnetic resonance might be able to diagnose cancer.

    Colleagues said this "went largely unnoticed".

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-56217687
     

    https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/4646/production/_102309971_mri_card1_1206_k_frame_68011.png

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    I’ve had MRI and PET scans, as well as CAT scans. Somebody should think up an acronym for DOG scan and invent it.

  20. From the article,

    Both were measures of trust in government: questions that asked respondents whether they believed their government would do the right thing and whether they believed that most public officials are honest. When these measures declined, murders went up

    .

    From Steve,

    Indeed, the doubling in the murder rate in the 1960s-70s coincided with Vietnam and Watergate and a rise in conspiracy theory thriller movies. On the other hand, it also followed the triumphs of the civil rights movement, the growth of black pride/black power movements, and the triumph of liberalism on the Supreme Court, in academia, and in the various forms of the media.

    Does anyone remember Fukuyama’s ‘The End of Histiry”? He proposed that capitalism, liberal democracy, and mild (or more) redistribution worked so well in the West that whole world (sans Muslims) would adopt them. Then the ‘age of Minarchs”, “ age of democracy”, “treaty of Westphalia”sort of history would be at an end.

    Thing is though, that even assuming liberal democracy and market capitalism are the best systems, they are the best systems for whites. There are good reasons to think that different populations would prefer and thrive (these are not the same) with different systems.

    When white people saw the feds force integration and civil rights on the South, they thought that the government had done the right thing by American blacks. Whites had great confidence and hope that they were a light unto nations. But, liberal democracy is not a system that arises spontaneously out of the mixture of Western technology, economics, and the behaviors of blacks.

    In a slightly different note, to Lutherans in Minnesota, freedom means you get to study the Bible without the Catholic Church’s preferred hermeneutics. To the Somalis in Minnesota, freedom means you get to mount a machine gun on your pickup truck, and keep the clan warfare going,

    Also, high crime, lower faith in government came together. The black crime released by freeing them from some white dominance made whites fleeing their formerly safe cities for the burbs doubt the wisdom of government and his fellow Americans thrivingness. They really do go together.

    • Replies: @vhrm
    @Rob


    Thing is though, that even assuming liberal democracy and market capitalism are the best systems, they are the best systems for whites. There are good reasons to think that different populations would prefer and thrive (these are not the same) with different systems.
     
    I'ma disagree and say that the system works fine blacks too. Maybe it wouldn't if they ran the whole thing (see e.g African countries), but in our mix it's ok.

    We're not blank slate equal, but we're all freakin' very trainable. Whites ran around in clans and clan warfare too and so did East Asians. Just a few generations later we're eating avocado toast and arguing BS on the interwebs. It's been mentioned before but, in spite of the moaning about "gaps" and racism, the US is as fine a place for blacks as anyplace else, as it is for most people.
  21. https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1365811028848750597

    That might be it for the Italian Stallion.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @JohnnyWalker123

    One of the accusers said that he never actually touched her. He just talked to her about how he was not currently in a relationship and was lonely and would she consider being his girlfriend despite their age difference, etc. While this is a little bit sad and awkward, it didn't used to be a crime.

    It all comes down to the paradox of sexual harassment. Any "unwanted" approach by a male to a female is sexual harassment according to modern thinking but you can't know whether an approach is unwanted until you make it (and for the most part men are still supposed to approach females and not vice versa). So instead, most men are afraid to even try. It was always a tough process for the shy but now it is fraught with legal risk as well. Better to keep your mouth shut and not risk losing your job like Cuomo.

    Women meanwhile are left in the position where they keep waiting for men that they like to approach them and keep dropping hints but the men never seem to get the hint (probably they do but they are afraid of the HR ladies and pretend not to notice). You might even think that the lesbians who are the leading thinkers in this movement would prefer it that way.

    These young women have been taught to fend off all approaches and focus on their careers and then suddenly they are 30, 35, 40 years old and living with their cats and they don't know what happened - they just never met the right man. It's a complete mystery.

  22. Steve, you are not thinking about this clearly. Wishing that somehow, someone in authority will stop the crime wave is just wish-casting. Crime in astonishing, Mexico / Honduras / El Salvador amounts is upon us. It will not go away for the next 60 years or so. That is baked into the cake. You can’t wish it away, and no one in authority will ever work to stop it.

    Rather, you ought to imagine the ways in which the tidal wave of mostly black crime is transforming society:

    1. Latinos and Whites are mostly allied against black crime and elite Whites enabling it. Mostly around gun rights but also about doing what they can to separate themselves from black people. At the time when the media is in overdrive about black black black black — Whites and Latinos are in behavior and attitudes anti-black.

    2. The feds are nothing more than the private police force of connected celebrities. Lady Gaga who cares nothing about her dog walker, got her dogs returned after the FBI got involved. Someone in her camp called the Biden White House who then directed the FBI to come up with some cover story to go kicking in doors in the hoods to get Gaga’s dogs back. As the LAPD are now handcuffed by Gascon and company. Making security and safety a function for how connected the rich and famous are to the White House camp.

    3. Ordinary people are left to fend for themselves. Martial Arts and various “gun-fu” schools plus knife fighting run by various people are going to be a booming business. Ex SEALS, Delta, other guys who don’t have book deals like Jack Carr are likely to be opening up training centers, ditto ex narcotics officers, etc. Gun Ownership is going to continue to increase,

    4. Protection rackets by various narco-allied groups are likely to boom. The State cannot enforce anarcho tyranny with open borders and various narco empires spanning half the Americas. There is money to be made in protection, a lot of it.

    5. Rule of law, patriotism, national identity, say goodbye to all of that. Its blood and soil all the way down. Blood in terms of family and relations, soil in terms of who controls what turf.

    Yes we all know the elite unleashed the St. George Floyd violence to get Trump and can’t call it back. That’s done. The relative safety and security of say, 1998-2012 are never coming back.

    What no one has really thought about is what is emerging now, and how it will shape pretty much every part of life. When people are liable to be attacked brutally by a State protected class of criminal, that shapes things dramatically differently.

    • Agree: Almost Missouri
    • Thanks: Neoconned
    • Replies: @Harry Baldwin
    @Whiskey

    various “gun-fu” schools plus knife fighting run by various people

    Excellent post, but I wonder how long the firearms training centers that are open to the public can escape the Eye of Soros. The nation's premier such facility, Gunsite, has already been described in a Wired article as a white supremacist sort of place. That's the first step toward shutting anything down.

    https://www.captainsjournal.com/2021/01/17/aiming-for-the-tactical-trainers/

    Replies: @Neoconned

    , @TomSchmidt
    @Whiskey

    Tl;dr if police controlled by elected officials won't control black crime, then mafias will. The Godfather at least provided some sort of justice, albeit at a heavy price.

    , @Neoconned
    @Whiskey

    Whiskey 1 thing to remember.....both Asian and latino business types tolerate whites who pay them money....

    Imagine able bodied ex cops and soldiers going to work for the cartels....itll be a modern Boardwalk Empire....

  23. Homicide rates in the U.S., long on the wane

    No, after a long, nice downward trend, they went up after Ferguson for the last two years of the Obama Administration. Then the Trump Administration managed to win back about half of the First BLM spike in murders. Then came the Racial Reckoning post Memorial Day 2020.

    C’mon man, you can’t Prof. Mihm to know all that complicated history, just because he’s a professor of [checks notes] er, … history. I mean, the guy’s got his hands full wrangling all the cattle into the proper chutes. Don’t confuse him with the facts!

  24. only two variables demonstrated a consistent correlation with the rise and fall of the homicide rate

    I can tell you right away what one variable they didn’t look at.

    • LOL: HammerJack
  25. My other favorite lefty lie, which went on for decades, is that increasing mistrust of government was caused by Vietnam, Richard Nixon, Watergate, lack of campaign financing reform or whatever other American defect the Left was belching about at the moment. Yet if you plot the Gallup biennial poll results of those who trust government little or not at all against the per-capita homicide rate from 1964 to 1992, you get a correlation coefficient of more than 90%.

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
    @Henry Canaday


    Yet if you plot the Gallup biennial poll results of those who trust government little or not at all against the per-capita homicide rate from 1964 to 1992, you get a correlation coefficient of more than 90%.
     
    It doesn't seem to have worked in reverse. When the crime rate began falling significantly in the nineteen-nineties and oughties, there was not a rise in Americans who trusted government, except for a post-9/11 surge that quickly dissipated.
  26. @Whiskey
    Steve, you are not thinking about this clearly. Wishing that somehow, someone in authority will stop the crime wave is just wish-casting. Crime in astonishing, Mexico / Honduras / El Salvador amounts is upon us. It will not go away for the next 60 years or so. That is baked into the cake. You can't wish it away, and no one in authority will ever work to stop it.

    Rather, you ought to imagine the ways in which the tidal wave of mostly black crime is transforming society:

    1. Latinos and Whites are mostly allied against black crime and elite Whites enabling it. Mostly around gun rights but also about doing what they can to separate themselves from black people. At the time when the media is in overdrive about black black black black -- Whites and Latinos are in behavior and attitudes anti-black.

    2. The feds are nothing more than the private police force of connected celebrities. Lady Gaga who cares nothing about her dog walker, got her dogs returned after the FBI got involved. Someone in her camp called the Biden White House who then directed the FBI to come up with some cover story to go kicking in doors in the hoods to get Gaga's dogs back. As the LAPD are now handcuffed by Gascon and company. Making security and safety a function for how connected the rich and famous are to the White House camp.

    3. Ordinary people are left to fend for themselves. Martial Arts and various "gun-fu" schools plus knife fighting run by various people are going to be a booming business. Ex SEALS, Delta, other guys who don't have book deals like Jack Carr are likely to be opening up training centers, ditto ex narcotics officers, etc. Gun Ownership is going to continue to increase,

    4. Protection rackets by various narco-allied groups are likely to boom. The State cannot enforce anarcho tyranny with open borders and various narco empires spanning half the Americas. There is money to be made in protection, a lot of it.

    5. Rule of law, patriotism, national identity, say goodbye to all of that. Its blood and soil all the way down. Blood in terms of family and relations, soil in terms of who controls what turf.

    Yes we all know the elite unleashed the St. George Floyd violence to get Trump and can't call it back. That's done. The relative safety and security of say, 1998-2012 are never coming back.

    What no one has really thought about is what is emerging now, and how it will shape pretty much every part of life. When people are liable to be attacked brutally by a State protected class of criminal, that shapes things dramatically differently.

    Replies: @Harry Baldwin, @TomSchmidt, @Neoconned

    various “gun-fu” schools plus knife fighting run by various people

    Excellent post, but I wonder how long the firearms training centers that are open to the public can escape the Eye of Soros. The nation’s premier such facility, Gunsite, has already been described in a Wired article as a white supremacist sort of place. That’s the first step toward shutting anything down.

    https://www.captainsjournal.com/2021/01/17/aiming-for-the-tactical-trainers/

    • Agree: Almost Missouri
    • Replies: @Neoconned
    @Harry Baldwin

    So in other words, get the training while you still can....i was kinda lucky in that my father is a prick who made me do karate & judo starting at 7 or 8 years old....

    Broken bones and all to prove it.

    I'd say probably 60 to 80% of the white people I've met are total cucks. They'd cry if they had to touch a gun....

  27. @Inquiring Mind
    Donut shops. The reason for the murder spike is donut shops.

    Why do people keep looking for other explanations?

    Replies: @Jack D

    I recently spoke with someone who has knowledge of the operation of my local police force. While formally there is no ticket quota, informally in the pre-Covid days the cops on patrol were expected to make at least 10 traffic stops/shift (where I live is a suburban area where it is rare to see people on foot). After Covid started, they were instructed that they no longer had to stop people for minor infractions and risk getting Covid. I’ve noticed that there are a huge # of cars with one headlight out.

    Traffic stops often lead to arrests. The sequence goes like this – cop stops you for burned out taillight. (Blacks are most likely to have poorly maintained cars with burned out bulbs.) He then leans into your car and notices the smell of marijuana. Based on this, he has probable cause to search your car. He searches the car and finds drugs and/or a gun and now there is another black person who is in county jail and is no longer out on the street committing crimes.

    Take away this mechanism and crime goes up because there are more criminals in circulation.

    The person I spoke with did not mention George Floyd and our township was mostly quiet while there was looting going on directly across the street in Philadelphia because the cops made a show of force. I spoke with another guy who said that during the rioting there were some rioters who had parked across the street in our township (I guess the lots were full on the Philly side) and were going to cross the street to join in the undocumented shopping. The cops approached the potential shoppers and told them that they had not committed any crime yet and were free to go but if they came back holding any merchandise they would arrest them.

    However, I’m sure that in the city that there has in fact been a retreat to the donut shop. The thing that cops want most is a quiet life. You do this shitty job for a few years and try not to get killed and then you go out on disability and collect a nice pension and pursue a 2nd career. Spending 10+ years in the penitentiary because some gentle giant has expired during some interaction with you is not part of the plan. The best way to avoid that is to have as few interactions as possible with the public. Sure if there is a 911 call you may have to respond, but there’s no point in looking for trouble. In between calls, find a nice parking spot and sip your coffee. To reduce the boredom, park window to window with another cop and shoot the breeze.

  28. @JohnnyWalker123
    https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1365811028848750597

    That might be it for the Italian Stallion.

    Replies: @Jack D

    One of the accusers said that he never actually touched her. He just talked to her about how he was not currently in a relationship and was lonely and would she consider being his girlfriend despite their age difference, etc. While this is a little bit sad and awkward, it didn’t used to be a crime.

    It all comes down to the paradox of sexual harassment. Any “unwanted” approach by a male to a female is sexual harassment according to modern thinking but you can’t know whether an approach is unwanted until you make it (and for the most part men are still supposed to approach females and not vice versa). So instead, most men are afraid to even try. It was always a tough process for the shy but now it is fraught with legal risk as well. Better to keep your mouth shut and not risk losing your job like Cuomo.

    Women meanwhile are left in the position where they keep waiting for men that they like to approach them and keep dropping hints but the men never seem to get the hint (probably they do but they are afraid of the HR ladies and pretend not to notice). You might even think that the lesbians who are the leading thinkers in this movement would prefer it that way.

    These young women have been taught to fend off all approaches and focus on their careers and then suddenly they are 30, 35, 40 years old and living with their cats and they don’t know what happened – they just never met the right man. It’s a complete mystery.

  29. @Anonymouse
    Blacks are killing one another at surprisingly higher rates than in previous years. As the low-life black gangbangers doing the killing know nothing about politics or government or news events (other than blacks dying in police confrontations), I fail to see how the varying optimistic or pessimistic political sentiments of the white majority could have anything to do with the murder rate as the professors referenced here make use of to explain.

    On the other hand, Steve's theory that Black Lives Matter being given carte blanche to riot in various cities emboldened gangbangers all over the country to act out seems tenuous. I admit I can't envision the mind-set of an uneducated 75 IQ black teenager selling drugs and fathering children on his baby mamas but it seems unlikely that he knows or cares anything about the world outside of his neighborhood. He might have heard that the judicial system is treating felons lightly but I fail to see any connection between vaguely being aware of that fact and giving in to his anger to kill someone he hates.

    Replies: @Jack D

    So what is your explanation then?

    As low information as ghetto youth is, the news of the outside world reaches them, though often in distorted form, as filtered by social media and rap songs, etc. Much of the looting this summer was driven by coordinated social media posts – “Let’s all come to such and such mall at 10 PM and loot it.” If enough people showed up (and they often did) they could overcome the security and empty the place out.

    Achmed has the answer below. To a ghetto youth, “Black Lives Matter” means “MY Life Matters”. My life matters means that I am a proud Black man, a descendant of kings and a veritable king myself and yet I have been badly treated by society and have nothing and no future prospects. Nor can I realistically expect that any help will be forthcoming from anyone, especially not from whitey. Whitey would just as soon see me dead – he would step on my neck like they did to George Floyd if they could. Sure Barack Obama is talking about getting me my reparations check but I’ll believe it when I see it. Therefore, the only way I can obtain and guard what I deserve is thru self-help. No one is going to give me an iPhone or a car, so I will just take one. If someone (of any color) offends my royal personage and steps on my royal Nikes, I will take immediate action to avenge the offense. And so on. I am a Proud Black Man whose Life Matters and I will not allow myself to be treated like garbage anymore by anyone. That is the Lesson of George Floyd.

    • Agree: Almost Missouri
  30. @Harry Baldwin
    @Whiskey

    various “gun-fu” schools plus knife fighting run by various people

    Excellent post, but I wonder how long the firearms training centers that are open to the public can escape the Eye of Soros. The nation's premier such facility, Gunsite, has already been described in a Wired article as a white supremacist sort of place. That's the first step toward shutting anything down.

    https://www.captainsjournal.com/2021/01/17/aiming-for-the-tactical-trainers/

    Replies: @Neoconned

    So in other words, get the training while you still can….i was kinda lucky in that my father is a prick who made me do karate & judo starting at 7 or 8 years old….

    Broken bones and all to prove it.

    I’d say probably 60 to 80% of the white people I’ve met are total cucks. They’d cry if they had to touch a gun….

  31. @Henry Canaday
    My other favorite lefty lie, which went on for decades, is that increasing mistrust of government was caused by Vietnam, Richard Nixon, Watergate, lack of campaign financing reform or whatever other American defect the Left was belching about at the moment. Yet if you plot the Gallup biennial poll results of those who trust government little or not at all against the per-capita homicide rate from 1964 to 1992, you get a correlation coefficient of more than 90%.

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

    Yet if you plot the Gallup biennial poll results of those who trust government little or not at all against the per-capita homicide rate from 1964 to 1992, you get a correlation coefficient of more than 90%.

    It doesn’t seem to have worked in reverse. When the crime rate began falling significantly in the nineteen-nineties and oughties, there was not a rise in Americans who trusted government, except for a post-9/11 surge that quickly dissipated.

  32. @Rob
    From the article,

    Both were measures of trust in government: questions that asked respondents whether they believed their government would do the right thing and whether they believed that most public officials are honest. When these measures declined, murders went up
     
    .

    From Steve,

    Indeed, the doubling in the murder rate in the 1960s-70s coincided with Vietnam and Watergate and a rise in conspiracy theory thriller movies. On the other hand, it also followed the triumphs of the civil rights movement, the growth of black pride/black power movements, and the triumph of liberalism on the Supreme Court, in academia, and in the various forms of the media.
     
    Does anyone remember Fukuyama’s ‘The End of Histiry”? He proposed that capitalism, liberal democracy, and mild (or more) redistribution worked so well in the West that whole world (sans Muslims) would adopt them. Then the ‘age of Minarchs”, “ age of democracy”, “treaty of Westphalia”sort of history would be at an end.

    Thing is though, that even assuming liberal democracy and market capitalism are the best systems, they are the best systems for whites. There are good reasons to think that different populations would prefer and thrive (these are not the same) with different systems.

    When white people saw the feds force integration and civil rights on the South, they thought that the government had done the right thing by American blacks. Whites had great confidence and hope that they were a light unto nations. But, liberal democracy is not a system that arises spontaneously out of the mixture of Western technology, economics, and the behaviors of blacks.

    In a slightly different note, to Lutherans in Minnesota, freedom means you get to study the Bible without the Catholic Church’s preferred hermeneutics. To the Somalis in Minnesota, freedom means you get to mount a machine gun on your pickup truck, and keep the clan warfare going,

    Also, high crime, lower faith in government came together. The black crime released by freeing them from some white dominance made whites fleeing their formerly safe cities for the burbs doubt the wisdom of government and his fellow Americans thrivingness. They really do go together.

    Replies: @vhrm

    Thing is though, that even assuming liberal democracy and market capitalism are the best systems, they are the best systems for whites. There are good reasons to think that different populations would prefer and thrive (these are not the same) with different systems.

    I’ma disagree and say that the system works fine blacks too. Maybe it wouldn’t if they ran the whole thing (see e.g African countries), but in our mix it’s ok.

    We’re not blank slate equal, but we’re all freakin’ very trainable. Whites ran around in clans and clan warfare too and so did East Asians. Just a few generations later we’re eating avocado toast and arguing BS on the interwebs. It’s been mentioned before but, in spite of the moaning about “gaps” and racism, the US is as fine a place for blacks as anyplace else, as it is for most people.

  33. Steve this post is a great counter narrative (and a synthesis of stuff you’ve been saying for a year or more).

    I wish it would get traction and that more people who are against the Woke would do this kind of (relatively) calm and (relatively) non confrontational analyses in the press instead of Q-anon /”pizzagate” stuff.

    • Replies: @Harry Baldwin
    @vhrm

    I wish it would get traction and that more people who are against the Woke would do this kind of (relatively) calm and (relatively) non confrontational analyses in the press instead of Q-anon /”pizzagate” stuff.

    Who knows, maybe the Q-anon /”pizzagate” stuff was a project of the interagency group.

  34. @vhrm
    Steve this post is a great counter narrative (and a synthesis of stuff you've been saying for a year or more).

    I wish it would get traction and that more people who are against the Woke would do this kind of (relatively) calm and (relatively) non confrontational analyses in the press instead of Q-anon /"pizzagate" stuff.

    Replies: @Harry Baldwin

    I wish it would get traction and that more people who are against the Woke would do this kind of (relatively) calm and (relatively) non confrontational analyses in the press instead of Q-anon /”pizzagate” stuff.

    Who knows, maybe the Q-anon /”pizzagate” stuff was a project of the interagency group.

    • Agree: Rob
  35. @Whiskey
    Steve, you are not thinking about this clearly. Wishing that somehow, someone in authority will stop the crime wave is just wish-casting. Crime in astonishing, Mexico / Honduras / El Salvador amounts is upon us. It will not go away for the next 60 years or so. That is baked into the cake. You can't wish it away, and no one in authority will ever work to stop it.

    Rather, you ought to imagine the ways in which the tidal wave of mostly black crime is transforming society:

    1. Latinos and Whites are mostly allied against black crime and elite Whites enabling it. Mostly around gun rights but also about doing what they can to separate themselves from black people. At the time when the media is in overdrive about black black black black -- Whites and Latinos are in behavior and attitudes anti-black.

    2. The feds are nothing more than the private police force of connected celebrities. Lady Gaga who cares nothing about her dog walker, got her dogs returned after the FBI got involved. Someone in her camp called the Biden White House who then directed the FBI to come up with some cover story to go kicking in doors in the hoods to get Gaga's dogs back. As the LAPD are now handcuffed by Gascon and company. Making security and safety a function for how connected the rich and famous are to the White House camp.

    3. Ordinary people are left to fend for themselves. Martial Arts and various "gun-fu" schools plus knife fighting run by various people are going to be a booming business. Ex SEALS, Delta, other guys who don't have book deals like Jack Carr are likely to be opening up training centers, ditto ex narcotics officers, etc. Gun Ownership is going to continue to increase,

    4. Protection rackets by various narco-allied groups are likely to boom. The State cannot enforce anarcho tyranny with open borders and various narco empires spanning half the Americas. There is money to be made in protection, a lot of it.

    5. Rule of law, patriotism, national identity, say goodbye to all of that. Its blood and soil all the way down. Blood in terms of family and relations, soil in terms of who controls what turf.

    Yes we all know the elite unleashed the St. George Floyd violence to get Trump and can't call it back. That's done. The relative safety and security of say, 1998-2012 are never coming back.

    What no one has really thought about is what is emerging now, and how it will shape pretty much every part of life. When people are liable to be attacked brutally by a State protected class of criminal, that shapes things dramatically differently.

    Replies: @Harry Baldwin, @TomSchmidt, @Neoconned

    Tl;dr if police controlled by elected officials won’t control black crime, then mafias will. The Godfather at least provided some sort of justice, albeit at a heavy price.

  36. @Whiskey
    Steve, you are not thinking about this clearly. Wishing that somehow, someone in authority will stop the crime wave is just wish-casting. Crime in astonishing, Mexico / Honduras / El Salvador amounts is upon us. It will not go away for the next 60 years or so. That is baked into the cake. You can't wish it away, and no one in authority will ever work to stop it.

    Rather, you ought to imagine the ways in which the tidal wave of mostly black crime is transforming society:

    1. Latinos and Whites are mostly allied against black crime and elite Whites enabling it. Mostly around gun rights but also about doing what they can to separate themselves from black people. At the time when the media is in overdrive about black black black black -- Whites and Latinos are in behavior and attitudes anti-black.

    2. The feds are nothing more than the private police force of connected celebrities. Lady Gaga who cares nothing about her dog walker, got her dogs returned after the FBI got involved. Someone in her camp called the Biden White House who then directed the FBI to come up with some cover story to go kicking in doors in the hoods to get Gaga's dogs back. As the LAPD are now handcuffed by Gascon and company. Making security and safety a function for how connected the rich and famous are to the White House camp.

    3. Ordinary people are left to fend for themselves. Martial Arts and various "gun-fu" schools plus knife fighting run by various people are going to be a booming business. Ex SEALS, Delta, other guys who don't have book deals like Jack Carr are likely to be opening up training centers, ditto ex narcotics officers, etc. Gun Ownership is going to continue to increase,

    4. Protection rackets by various narco-allied groups are likely to boom. The State cannot enforce anarcho tyranny with open borders and various narco empires spanning half the Americas. There is money to be made in protection, a lot of it.

    5. Rule of law, patriotism, national identity, say goodbye to all of that. Its blood and soil all the way down. Blood in terms of family and relations, soil in terms of who controls what turf.

    Yes we all know the elite unleashed the St. George Floyd violence to get Trump and can't call it back. That's done. The relative safety and security of say, 1998-2012 are never coming back.

    What no one has really thought about is what is emerging now, and how it will shape pretty much every part of life. When people are liable to be attacked brutally by a State protected class of criminal, that shapes things dramatically differently.

    Replies: @Harry Baldwin, @TomSchmidt, @Neoconned

    Whiskey 1 thing to remember…..both Asian and latino business types tolerate whites who pay them money….

    Imagine able bodied ex cops and soldiers going to work for the cartels….itll be a modern Boardwalk Empire….

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