Murder is increasingly becoming a black thing in the United States.
From the Patterns in Humanity Substack:
Quantifying Racial Disparities in Homicide Perpetration
Oct 16, 2022
The FBI keeps track of homicide statistics, including the race of victims and offenders. However, a substantial number of homicides have unknown offenders. Herein I develop a method that combines CDC victimization data and FBI perpetrator data to produce more reliable homicide perpetration statistics. The analysis provides clues about the distribution of the unknown perpetrators.
The black line is @Scientific_Bird’s estimate, using both FBI (blue line) and CDC data (red line), of the black share of all homicide offenders. The black share has gotten considerably worse from the early 1980s, when the black share of murder offenders was in the upper 40s, to the “racial reckoning” year of 2020, when it reached almost 65%.
After the relative peace of the Cosby Era (Reagan’s first term) came crack. After the crack wars were over, the black share settled down to the lower 50s. During the Great Recession, Hispanic homicidality declined (for reasons little explored), driving up the black share. Then came the Ferguson Effect and finally the spectacular Floyd Effect in 2020.
Steve, you’re arguing with people who can’t do math.
The point is this:
If such appalling, egregious behavior could be attributed to white American men, well by Jove, you absolutely would not hear the end of it, and for sure the civil rights of white men would be stripped away by politicians outdoing each other with screams denouncing white men.
We’re living in a world created by people who think of themselves as “nice”. Not loyal, but “nice” and bound by principle. The kind of people who pat themselves on the back for hurting their own people for the sake of a Higher Principle.
100% off topic but of general interest – this morning’s massive (7.8) earthquake in Turkey was predicted two days ago by a Dutch geologist. Predicted via planetary and lunar alignments (‘geometry’) presumably creating gravitational strain. Looking at his epicentre he was spot-on.
“Black Share of Homicide Offenders Grew from 46% in Early 1980s to 64% in 2020”
Negroes not only closed the gap, they created a new one!
OT — East Palestine, Ohio situation summary. Just north of Pittsburgh a train has derailed, with several of its cars crashing into a diesel fuel storage facility. It has now burned for two going on three days. The national media’s not talking but a fire fighter talking to a local reporter let slip what the train was carrying. 20 cars carried vinyl chloride. Vinyl chloride heated in the absence of oxygen yields phosgene, which creates hydrochoric (stomach) acid in the lungs (and caused 85% of gas deaths in WWI), and hydrochloric acid. The authorities have ordered evacuation and threaten to arrest any who linger. Wind patterns point to DC.
So does ayone else figure they gave Mayor Peter Chickenfather the transportation department because they thought, how can he screw that up?
How much longer until the annual FBI Uniform Crime Statistics are deemed racist and abolished? Cities have already done it.
The Cosby Show didn’t premiere until the very end of Reagan’s first term.
OT: Actor Charles Kimbrough, best known for “Murphy Brown,” has died. More importantly, in Birmingham in 1976, when ATMs were a new thing, his face was the face of “William Teller” on the ATMs of First National Bank of Birmingham (later Amsouth), said face rendered by airbrush wizard Robert Grossman of National Lampoon and “Firesign Theatre” fame.
Correlation does not imply causation, but it appears that higher “Black Joblessness” actually lowers the “Black Homicide Offenders/Victims” rate/proportion (I just added the “Black Offenders” percentages into the Bloomberg graph below). This would make sense, since when people are unemployed they usually spend more time at home as opposed to out and about in the hood hustling, etc. The Black proportion of the population https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_racial_and_ethnic_demographics_of_the_United_States#Historical_data_for_all_races_and_for_Hispanic_origin_(1610%E2%80%932020) has stayed pretty stable since the 1980s at around ~12%:
If it were just that, we’d be in pretty good shape.
That per capita rate of blacks as murderers going up from a very high number to a super high number is due to the fact that the Elites of the US, WASP and Jew alike, kept petting backs more, kept telling them more that they are are the mist cutest and smartest and the most wronged, that they, in effect, were born Immaculate and are owed, forever, by evil Whites.
It’s like raising pit bulls as if that they are innocent victims incapable of doing real harm and always justified in their twitch reactions and their appetites.
White Liberals make Bantus worse than they would be otherwise, and unless you know the origin for that, unless you know the reason it was initiated, you cannot ever hope to make headway against those who keep those fires stoked.
Blacks were made into the Numinous Negroes by elite Yanks, by true WASPs with wealth and power. They did so not to harm ‘their own people’ 9WASPs, and perhaps closely related Continental Germanic Protestants) , but to use as weapons and tools with which to wage culture war against the whites they the WASPs most hated and feared and wanted to harm: Southerners, Irish, Poles, Italians, etc.
Yes, yes, yes, but are there enough black female meteorologists!
When will there be equity for black women among oil riggers! Or Alaskan fisherman! Or loggers! Or smokejumpers! Or rocket scientists!
In an era of increasing caste-like occupational specialization, African-Americans are becoming the “murdering caste”.
I see that the latest big and long rise started in ’08, as well as I can read the graph. I do not discount your correlations of black crime with the big Infotainment pushes for black worship in ’14 and ’20.
However, consider a simpler cause – raw numbers. All it would take if for a larger number of black guys of the appropriate age range (pretty wide, what 15 to 45 or so?) and temperament to bring the numbers up too.
What do I mean by “temperment”? You know it when you see it, but consider the effect of a half century of the Welfare State, along with the massive immigration. There are many more black men of that age with enough means not to be struggling but no jobs. Many, many more. As Peak Stupidity discussed in Idle Hands are the Devil’s Workshop (written May 30th of ’20) black men are much more prone to using free time to cause mayhem then White men are. I’ve seen it.
So, as usual, you have nature – my last paragraph – and the environment – Socialism and mass immigration (massive replacement of cheap labor) both causing effects in people. The Kung Flu PanicFest, with its huge amount of spending of
Governmenttaxpayers’ money was a great experiment in UBI. The results were not very good at all, were they?
From the post:
Now, the Biblical book of Proverbs was not written specifically for black men, but it sure seems to apply here. I’ve known white men out of work for long periods. There are whole regions of the country with big numbers of rural white men that are not really participating in the productive economy too. They get on drugs sometimes, they may steal from Wal-Mart on occasion, or even jack cars. However, they just don’t seem to get into this mindless* violence, as the black men do.
Was this current spread of rioting really caused by the death of George Floyd alone? Well, there’s always a reason to loot a Target, I guess, but this time, we need to remember that a significant number of Americans have been home with no work for the last 2 to 2 1/2 months. That is in addition to the already significant number of already unemployed men (again, I don’t believe BLS numbers**), always higher for black males.
In the meantime, along comes the “free” money from Uncle Sugar. Did that keep everybody satisfied? They could stay home or visit here and there, with plenty of money for food, bills deferred, and all this time on their hands. It’s been a trial run of a Socialist UBI-America. This unintended(?) experiment seems to have some unforeseen results, there in Minneapolis, now New York City, Washington, FS, Los Angeles, Atlanta …
Great work as always, though if I were to send it un anonymously to anyone not 80+% on our side, I would find myself in trouble.
It is the same logic of the education advocates who want all public schools to have more white kids and believe it can be obtained with busing and mandatory integration. They never explain how they are going to do it with a shrinking number of white kids and with many of those white kids living in very rural areas.
Yes but blacks of both sexes are certainly overrepresented in the more prestigious profession of TelePrompTer readers on flagship local news broadcasts.
Is there any city that doesn’t have at least one of the two anchors (not to mention the sports guy, lifestyle reporter, field correspondent, etc.) of the African-American persuasion? Even if they have to find the one semi-presentable black lady in town for the job.
A quibble – the Cosby show started in 1984. The Cosby Era would really more accurately be seen as the second Reagan term, and perhaps the Bush term as well (the show went until 1992).
As for the TV “Meteorologists”, listen, anyone can get the weather off his phone in a few seconds. There’s nothing they can tell you that you can’t look up quickly yourself. Then what do you want in a TV weatherman, nowadays? Tits and ass, is what it comes down to. What’s the point, otherwise?
This Brittany Bell popped up on youtube, and she is pretty good looking. However, how do we know completely if she doesn’t do the weather in a bikini?
Now, here’s the weather in Chile from about a decade ago. Not so many viewers watch just to know the historic high and low temperatures in Valparaiso.
Proof that whites are more racist than evah!
All about Nixon is true.
Regarding race, he was not driven by some nefarious long-term plans. He was just stupid and delusional.
Nice to see Steve getting with the spirit of Bleg History Month.
This all pales in comparison with ….
… thunderstorm in Canberra
Ozzy: Yeah man, nobody gives a shit.
Loyalty Over IQ Worship wrote:
They have not just hurt “their own people”: they have hurt everyone, including — especially! — poor Blacks.
Let’s not give them the benefit of the doubt that at least they helped some people. They haven’t.
Look at the race of the victims in the graph Sailer presents.
Why then do they do this?
They have fabricated a crack-pot ideology, at obvious variance with the real world: adherence to this ideology, despite its absurdity, is how you prove your in-group loyalty.
It’s like the idiotic behavior that frats used to force the pledges to undergo to get into the frat — it is precisely the absurdity and humiliation that is the point.
The same is of course true for religions — you cannot prove your loyalty to a religion by declaring that rain is wet or the sky is blue. You prove your loyalty be declaring that the bloodthirsty god of the Old Testament is really merciful or that wine is really blood or whatever.
Because no one would make such absurd declarations except to prove his loyalty.
Which is why they cannot be argued out of it by rational evidence. The fact that they believe despite all the evidence is the whole point of it.
That is all Wokism is.
“Credo quia absurdum.”
Most nice white people don’t like to hear it, but blacks need society’s guardrails – legal and cultural – more than anybody, and loosening up on that just ends up with more dysfunction. Since the civil rights era a large share of the black middle class made a conscious effort to get the hell away from majority black neighborhoods, something hardly ever commented on by the media or activists, but a pretty obvious signal what higher functioning blacks think of their co-ethnics. However they were likely a moderating force that their formal locales now sorely lack. Along with that has been society’s quite conscious decision to lower standards of performance and behavior for blacks in the truly insane basis that asking less of people means they will actually overperform. No one would take this approach with a child or even the family dog, but our betters are convinced that America’s most disappointing demographic needs less oversight to take their rightful place along higher performing groups.
I don’t know but it seems like The Weather Channel (TWC) has hired all five black meteorologists.
The Cosby Show debuted in fall of 1984 and did not become the number one show until 1985, the first year of Reagan’s second term. The Cosby era is synonymous with the crack era, which is actually pretty fitting.
The first Reagan term would be better termed the Dallas era.
As PK says, there actually was a reason for segregation, Jim Crow and sundown laws etc. They were (among other things) attempts to keep in check the instinctual, violent proclivities of blacks and to further keep those proclivities from polluting and damaging civilized society. Unfortunately, the sewer taps were opened and here we are.
Slavery was a major mistake and a major disgrace.
That is a fact.
The best thing to do is probably give Black Americans reparations, move on and separate.
Or else, this crime and stuff will continue and destroy the United States.
Not just the Cosby show. Steve’s explanatory timeline:
is off about the Great Recession as well. Black share is rising during the Bush Housing Bubble, looks to peak right about 2007 and then declines pretty noticeably during the Great Recession, then starts taking market share again with the recovery. Only the crack war part–the most notable–seems spot on.
Except for the crack war peak–if there’s any sort of pattern it would seem to be that–contra the poor oppressed narrative–blacks get relatively more shooty when the good times are rolling. Or when–like the last couple years–society–our elite–signals them that the old rules don’t apply. In other words, black “exuberance” and black shootiness go hand in hand.
But the man effect here, I think, is that our culture, technology (ex. cameras), policing/criminal justice and demographics have been gradually lowering the homicidal criminality of other populations. But blacks–egged on by our “elites”–just don’t stop acting black.
It was for making precisely this point (I believe in the wake of hurricane Katrina) that Steve Sailer was publicly lambasted as a racist.
And yet the Earth is in motion in the heavens, your Holiness lol.
It was for making precisely this point (I believe in the wake of hurricane Katrina) that Steve Sailer was publicly lambasted as a racist.
And yet the Earth is in motion in the heavens, lol.
Seen some estimates of the percentage of black men who are murderers that appear to be pretty high. I imagine that they would be higher still, if you peeled off the more mulatto types.
Are they killing more violent blacks on average, or just random blacks?
If you add up the deaths (some percentage which must be of violent thugs) and the murderers (some percentage of which must be jailed), and subtract the mulattoes, it almost seems a wonder that they aren’t genetically pacifying themselves.
The Jewish led wacky left would explain that the black murder rate has increased dramatically only because there is more white racism and systemic racism than ever. If not for that all blacks would be millionaires or PhD candidates.
Everyone involved in this decades-long cover-up of rampant Black crime is guilty of genocide, even by the United Nations’ definition of genocide.
That includes (but by no means is limited to) government officials who ban & erase every method & record of tracing crime stats by by race.
They can do the math, alright.
Their most powerful tactic is to ignore inconvenient truths. You can kind of do that when you control 100 percent of the mainstream. Does even Fox News discuss this?
The funny thing is this “oppression” story is self-debunking. Self-debunking in the very next paragraph.
So in fact, rather than “especially in television”, black meteorologists are overrepresented on TV by by about 2.7X. (5.5% of TV/2% of the profession).
Of course, the simple explanation is that TV news execs/producers try and toss up suitable on-camera “diversity” for their news shows, tailoring it somewhat to the region. They basically have 4 guaranteed to be on camera jobs–the two anchors, sports and weather. And they split those jobs among men and women, white, black, Hispanic and Asian depending on local demographics, gated by their existing successful “talent”.
Blacks are in fact wildly overrepresented in TV news. Even in markets with only national average (13%) or fewer blacks, blacks often get one of those spots. They are the officially approved most virtuous “diversity”. But because
— meteorology is STEM
— blacks do not connote competence or “knows their science”
— meteorology does not have a lot of blacks to start with,
the black spots are more likely to be the main anchor desk or sports.
But hey … who cares. They’ll whine “representation” no matter what. Even when the numbers say “wildly over-represented”.
And again: Having these “journalists”–skewing BA journobabe barely out of diapers–who can not do math, do not think mathematically, and do not feel any constraint from actual empirical data, math and logic is a debacle. (These young women should be home baking cookies, they certainly have no business writing about public affairs.)
Beyond them these elite minoritarian fantasies, requiring the detachment of our society from empirical reality, from math, logic and reason, is a disaster.
When is the last time a White murder victim received any national publicity. On the level of recent black Memphis victim?
White women who are murdered do get attention but the average murder of a white male during a robbery or home invasion is never mentioned. Look at the murder trial of Alex Murdaugh that all the media is covering.
At least Liam Dutton can pronounce the longest place name in the UK, if not the Northern Hemisphere. It helps that he’s half-Welsh by descent. His black side would be verbal as well.
Steve, please comment on the Beverly Crest murders.
What percentage of America do black males between the ages of roughly 13 and 25 make up? 2% or so? So about 2% of Americans are committing about 64% of the violent crime in America?
Maybe their are so few black women weathermen because black women have realized that the camera is not their friend. It adds 10 lbs and makes their skin look shiny.
Happening anyway dude, prelude to genocide, don’t give up your guns.
This is due to the white population aging and becoming less violent due to a lower percentage of young adults. Not blacks becoming more violent.
I guess y’all are gonna blame us black folks for your women failing to reproduce now… Ha ha.
Kudo’s to “ScientificBird” on this.
The basic idea is straightforward linear algebra. But especially appreciated his tackling the issue whether the unknown perps would have a similar intra/inter racial pattern as known offenders/victims.
There is reason to suspect that a higher proportion of these unknown killings are black on black, which can’t be cleared because of black’s low conscientious and social-trust–“snitches get stiches” But he shows that the known intra-racial (black on white) killings put a strong constraint on how low the overall inter/intra-racial ratio can be. Mathematically it’s pretty conclusive that blacks must account for 60%+ of killings now, even in the optimal (best case for blacks) scenario.
This sort of testing of the assumptions of the model, checking how far off it could be is a really good thing to do. It dramatically improves confidence that basically he’s gotten this right and the model’s estimates are at least close to what’s going on.
Clueless black air traffic controller almost gets 100+ people killed — clears two aircraft to land and depart on same runway at same time, Austin, TX
White FedEx pilot saves himself and dozens of others by being on the ball
Hispanic homicide rates declined because different jurisdictions began counting them as White.
OT — development in East Palestine, OH — they now plan to intentionally rupture five burning cars; they hope to capture the phosgene when it is released. This will happen at 3:30 today.
Hey Steve, they had on Heather McDonald on WIND-AM 560 this morning talking about Black crime on Dan Proft’s show.
Going on 29 years.
White people must be encouraged to kill more white people.
What about earlier years? Were black neighborhoods loaded with black crime during the 50s? My recollection is that black men worked at various jobs that they did very well and they were respected by whites and they respected themselves and they didn’t expect to be dentists and everything was just fine. But that only describes the job situation; what about the black-crime situation at that same time? Did the job ethos eliminate the crime ethos? I ask out of curiosity I suppose, because that job ethos is never coming back.
As I’ve previously commented, the only black on White murder(s) to become a National Morality Play was the O.J. Simpson farce. And the MSM, etc. picked away at the prosecution’s case, made Fuhrman the villain and exulted when the dead-bang guilty defendant was acquitted.
Wrong. Hispanics are less likely to be counted as white now, and the white rate declined as well.
Hisoanics murder rate declined because their ancestry has shifted more towards Mayan/East Asian, which is less violent than the earlier US Hipanics who had more European and African ancestry.
You see this also in Mexico. The Northwestern and central part is the “whitest” part of Mexico and has the highest murder rate. The genetically mostly indigenous southern Mexicans have East Asian-tier homicide rates and HDI.
Lol, you primitive ass Caucasian people are so full of shit.
Dan spends a lot of time talking about Chicago and Illinois political corruption along with local media malpractice, and rightfully so. The problem is Dan rarely, if ever, identifies black crime and black social dysfunction as being at the core of Chicago’s problems. CRT to Dan is cultural Marxism and not anti white hatred.
The blessings of sacred Blackness continue to descend upon us in all manner of ways. Even outside of more important categories such as homicides, reckless driving, theft, etc., their presence can be felt. Many years ago, my wife and I were on a road trip with our two daughters, aged 6 and 8 at the time. We pulled off the highway into a fast-food joint to get something to eat. A school bus filled with Black girls from a Catholic middle school pulled in right after us. We went in and got in a longish order line, with the schoolgirls, wearing their uniforms of plaid skirts and white blouses, coming in shortly afterward. They seemed well behaved. No breaking in line, no cursing, no weave-pulling (actually, no weaves). And yet, there was……..something. What I don’t know. Maybe it was their many loud, unmodulated voices, their constant motion. I don’t know what. As we stood in line, I could see my daughters were becoming increasingly agitated. My wife and I could feel it too. My youngest was actually starting to tear up a little. I looked over to my wife and said, “Let’s go.” She said, “Oh yeah,” and we left. Mind you, there was not the tiniest threat of violence. I still can’t say exactly what it was. Maybe a sense of a kind of seething disorder that they radiated. Whatever it was, the kids definitely felt it. And no, at their ages, we had never even talked to them about Blacks. This small data point, amidst many more important ones, leads to my basic proposition about life in the U.S. today: There is no higher indicator of the quality of life than the ABSENCE of Blacks.
Correlation doesn’t even equal correlation, when you start with bogus data from the BLS. 5.4% black unemployment right now? That’s plain laughable. Do you know how this information is gathered? They go by unemployment claims. Once someone has not been working for 6 months or a year, he’s no longer counted.
There are plenty of black families in which NOBODY has been working for years. Plenty of others have given up too.
Right now, in fact, it’s hard to get anyone for lots of jobs. That’s because the free money for 2 years got people off the idea of working, especially at jobs, like fast food, which pretty much suck. (What is Big Biz doing about that? Getting more foreigners and letting one lady work the whole drug store.)
I would believe the BLS inflation numbers more than their unemployment ones, and the former have been off – lower – by a factor of 2 for a couple of decades, and what their calling 8% is probably double that.
The economy is in the shitter, and it’s going to get worse. If you start off with bogus numbers, you won’t get to an accurate conclusion.
Negroes! Huh! Good God y’all/What are they good for? Absolutely nuthin’!!
I’d like to think I arrived at this conclusion independently thanks to my life experiences with diversity dating back to a young age, but I do think Steve is quite adept at succinctly describing phenomena like this that everyone is aware of consciously or not.
“Black Families’ Share of Cash Assistance Recipients” has been declining since the 1980s:
Image Source: https://www.cbpp.org/research/family-income-support/tanf-policies-reflect-racist-legacy-of-cash-assistance or https://archive.ph/fJxdi#selection-1793.0-1793.8
My wife’s uncle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrel_Bell was a member of the Reagan Administration’s first cabinet and the A Nation at Risk: The Imperative for Educational Reform https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Nation_at_Risk report he initiated, helped Black families and especially Black women to get better educated, and therefore have better job market prospects, etc.:
At the college level, the significant enrollment gap between the Black population and national average still exists but has narrowed considerably.
Average enrollment for young adults increased from 26% to 41%. At the same time, the proportion of Black young adults in college more than doubled, rising from 15% to 38%.
Image Source: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2020/06/black-high-school-attainment-nearly-on-par-with-national-average.html or https://archive.ph/fq7nB#selection-1791.0-1791.171
What ‘A Nation At Risk’ Got Wrong, And Right, About U.S. Schools
https://www.npr.org/sections/ed/2018/04/29/604986823/what-a-nation-at-risk-got-wrong-and-right-about-u-s-schools or https://archive.ph/Xq8rg
A point I’ll make is that if black criminality can become worse, presumably it can also become better.
Assuming laxer policing, less punitive sentencing, and media encouragement have led to blacks becoming more murderous, stricter policing, more draconian punishment, and media insistence that blacks scrupulously obey the law should lead to them becoming less murderous.
This isn’t like the weather; not only can we talk about it, it’s perfectly possible to do something about it.
This statistic needs to be repeated over and over. We need to publicize what I call the ratio more. Immigration has obscured this and given many conservative whites a false sense that blacks are not a demographic threat.
Sounds like DeLillo’s White Noise.
The rising demographics amongst the young are mestizos and Asiatics.
Surely, if violence was more strongly correlated with youth rather than age, then these two groups, in particular mestizos, would dominate the murder statistics.
Of course, ‘hurting their own people’ doesn’t mean ‘hurting themselves’, so they are incentivised to do it.
But, strangely enough, if one studies Salterian theory, these hypocrites actually are ‘hurting themselves’ but they are just to venal and dumb to realise it.
She makes me want to learn Spanish.
Yes. Schwartzes tend to do best when policed heavily. Look at all the Schwartze calls to bring back cops in de-policed areas.
It’s not for nothing that the price of admission to the business/social club called Latter Day Saints includes a profession of an Angel called Moroni.
AKA The Rize of La Raza.
Everyone’s been talking about that, it was popularized in an Adam Driver movie, and was the basis of the name of this band. Also, apparently 12 years ago to the day, there was another big disaster chemical derailment in about the same spot, and recently Ohio has seen a freakish number of derailments (but none as serious as this).
Suspect we are getting to the point where Wokeness propaganda is so absurd, few are taking it seriously.
As far as I read the comments under that tweet, seemed those critical were 8 — 1.
The thing is already compromised by many reporting agencies downplaying or leaving out racial data.
Thanks for the optimism.
But state and local welfare programs picked up the slack from declining fed sources; increased ed attainment was a chunk of declining standards; Black labor % participation has fallen steadily since 2000; other stats, like the topic here, homicide, have gotten worse.
Your observation about Black flight from once-segregated neighborhoods is totally accurate. But it gets even worse. Yes, the best and brightest leave, and those left behind slide further into a cesspool of crime and failure. But those who escaped? Well they may have been the best of their race, and some of them are on the average the equal of Whites. Problem? First, that many of the better Blacks have “benefited” from Affirmative Action, which cynically means they are more likely to be incompetent in the jobs they hold than any random non-Black would be. Peter Principle squared. And for their children? Reversion to the mean. Even if Mom and Dad were far above average, alas the children will tend to revert to the mans of their race, which means that intellectually at a disadvantage to non-Blacks At least they will profit on the “nurture” side, as they are likely to be raised in a more favorable environment.
True. And a significant portion of the worsening of this ratio has to do with immigration as well.
Not quite. There is always a definite class aspect. “Nice” whites delight in hurting the prospects of lower-ranked young white males, ostensibly to extend “equity” to “minorities,” but in fact to shield their own spawn from competition for college slots, jobs, marriage prospects, quality housing.
The MSM propaganda drum beat against “right-wing extremists,” “fundamentalist Christians,” “white supremacists” etc. has been going on for decades and intensifies month to month. Not coincidentally, these are the only population groups with a residual ideology and community attitudes still somewhat independent of state indoctrination.
Black labor % participation has fallen steadily since 2000
But state and local welfare programs picked up the slack from declining fed sources
The Black labor force participation rate (currently 62.9%; peak 66.4%; -5.3% decrease from peak) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300006 is higher and has fallen less than the White labor force participation rate (currently 62.1%; peak 67.6%; -8.1% decrease from peak) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300003
What is true is that the drug overdose death rate of Black men has surged in recent years surpassing White men, but the drug overdose death rate of Black women is still below White women, despite a significant (relative) increase in recent years. But down the road this trend could have a negative effect on the Black labor force participation rate:
Image Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/01/19/recent-surge-in-u-s-drug-overdose-deaths-has-hit-black-men-the-hardest/ or https://archive.ph/0Ala5
35 Years After ‘A Nation at Risk’: 36 Pages that Bent the Arc of Education
Apr 10, 2018
Would you please stop colonizing slavery. Slavery was an old and well established part of African culture, as was selling slaves to foreigners. There was and is nothing wrong with it as far as the Africans were concerned. Since it was Africans who were the slaves in the Deep South, there can be nothing wrong with the slavery there; it was just Africans following their own customs, using Whites to buy supplies and sell cotton.
The arrogance of Whites sometimes amazes me. Decolonize Slavery!!!
Can’t get my chart to load for the state/local spending…here, down a ways.
The biggest issue is given a random suburban family, what is the quality of the friends and associates they attract? Obviously the most upstanding people like Asians are unlikely to have relatives come to your neighborhood that like to cause a ruckus, speed, litter, etc, whereas with blacks a higher percentage of their friends and family are people who you’d rather not hang around your street. I learned this with rental properties – you can have a perfectly nice tenant, but if they have a loser kid or relative that comes to visit a lot or periodically crash there, you are going to have problems. I’ve declined to renew leases for nothing other than that.
Blacks always say they want cops to catch criminals. The problem is that their notion of “criminals” is always other people’s kids, never their own, who are always innocent. This leads to the usual problems when cops actually start arresting criminals.
(It’s similar to Mexicans in the US who say they oppose mass immigration, but freak out when their relatives get deported. They don’t see their own cousins/brothers/nephews/etc. as part of some “mass”. The “mass” is always some other guy’s kinsfolk.)
TANF (Temporary Assistance for Needy Families) Recipients as of 2020 are:
Source: New Interactive Data Tool Shows Characteristics of Those Who Receive Assistance From Government Programs https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/05/who-is-receiving-social-safety-net-benefits.html
I believe, a lot of poorer (illegal) Hispanic families supplement their incomes through working (part-time) for drug cartels, especially if the parents are not U.S. citizens or Green Card holders and the children are not “anchor babies”:
Villain Or Victim? Understanding The Role of Women In The Latin American Drug Trade
16 Aug 2022
https://www.wola.org/analysis/villain-or-victim-understanding-the-role-of-women-in-the-latin-american-drug-trade/ or https://archive.ph/3RPYn
“typically playing low-level, non-violent roles as the last link in the system. In many cases, these women act as ‘micro-traffickers’, selling small quantities of drugs, or are engaged in transporting illicit substances”
Probably the single-most alarming sociological correlation (exacerbated by Chinese Fentanyl https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fentanyl#Enforcement in recent years) I have discovered/uncovered https://www.unz.com/runz/racial-politics-in-america-and-in-california/?showcomments#comment-2631985 was/is the following (Click [MORE] button below for details):
1970–2020 U.S. Drug Overdose Death Rate per 100,000 versus Hispanic American Population Size Between 1970 and 2020 in Millions r = 0.8963
A hidden secret that the mainstream media NEVER dares mention:
The city of St. Louis saw the highest number of recorded homicides, 309, in the year 1970 (!!). Second place goes to the year prior, in 1969.
Think about this for a second, this was decades before single motherhood, broken homes, rap/hip-hop music, sagging pants, and gold chains.
Needless to say, the overwhelming majority of these homicides were black-on-black, and occurred in the city’s north side (i.e. North St. Louis).
Similarly, Chicago recorded a similar statistic, with 970, in the year 1974, once again, decades before all of those noxious cultural influences in the black community.
These statistics TOTALLY DEMOLISH THE THEORY that blacks were somehow more benevolent and civilized back then.
They were the same back then, perhaps even worse.
Unfortunately I don’t really have time to dig into this now. But it recalls this 2020 comment.
I wonder why his model shows such a big correction compared to the back of the envelope I did there? The simple explanation for my conclusion was that with the black offense rate so high it was hard for the correction to raise it given any significant number of unclosed homicides with a white victim.
One possibility is that the racial balances for unclosed homicides differ from closed. I find this plausible. Consider that stranger murders are less likely to be closed than acquaintance murders (easier to find suspects).
Another possibility is I used 2010/2013 data and the graph in the post shows a significant increase in %black victims since then which might affect the results.
I did a similar analysis back in late 2018, but just for Chicago, because that was the only place I found good data for. What I concluded is that Black (and even White) gang members (or drug dealers) are increasingly being murdered by Hispanic drug cartel members in bloody turf wars. This trend probably intensified after the 2008-2009 recession, when there was perhaps greater competition/rivalry in major drug distribution hubs like Chicago in order to gain greater market share, eliminate competition, etc.:
What could corroborate my conclusion is that the life expectancy at age 25 of Black men without a bachelor’s degree (BA) dropped sharply from about 2013 onward, despite Black men having had lower and even falling drug overdose death rates at the time https://archive.ph/CYFxF#selection-1487.0-1487.97 than White men:
Image Source: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/03/amidst-americas-changing-politics-deaths-despair-persist or https://archive.ph/fTDuM