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Big Brother Thermometer That Snitches on Your Temperature Shows Promising Trends
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A company called Kinsa sells “smart thermometers” that snitch on your degrees of fever to their central website HealthWeather.US. They get about 160,000 readings per day from across the country. Lately, after a bad spell in mid-March, feverishness has been falling.

Of course, some of that is due to non-COVID infections falling as Americans socially distance. The blue striped line attempts to estimate the normal decline in run of the mill fever infections.

From the New York Times:

Restrictions Are Slowing Coronavirus Infections, New Data Suggest

A database of daily fever readings shows that the numbers declined as people disappeared indoors.

By Donald G. McNeil Jr.
March 30, 2020 Updated 6:52 p.m. ET

… But the new data offer evidence, in real time, that tight social-distancing restrictions may be working, potentially reducing hospital overcrowding and lowering death rates, experts said.

The company, Kinsa Health, which produces internet-connected thermometers, first created a national map of fever levels on March 22 and was able to spot the trend within a day. Since then, data from the health departments of New York State and Washington State have buttressed the finding, making it clear that social distancing is saving lives.

The trend has become so obvious that on Sunday, President Trump extended until the end of April his recommendation that Americans stay in lockdown. Mr. Trump had hoped to lift restrictions by Easter and send Americans back to work. …

The company normally uses that data to track the spread of influenza. Since 2018, when it had more than 500,000 thermometers distributed, its predictions have routinely been two to three weeks ahead of those of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which gathers flu data on patient symptoms from doctors’ offices and hospitals.

To identify clusters of coronavirus infections, Kinsa recently adapted its software to detect spikes of “atypical fever” that do not correlate with historical flu patterns and are likely attributable to the coronavirus.

As of noon Wednesday, the company’s live map showed fevers holding steady or dropping almost universally across the country, with two prominent exceptions.

One was in a broad swath of New Mexico, where the governor had issued stay-at-home orders only the day before, and in adjacent counties in Southern Colorado.

Also looks like the Great Plains and Mississippi are not doing as well in terms of trend as the rest of the country, probably because they weren’t visited by too many Milanese fashionistas in February, so are only now getting whacked for the first time. The Greater New York area still has problems as well, although the trend is in the right direction, just not enough.

The second was in a ring of Louisiana parishes surrounding New Orleans, but 100 to 150 miles away from it. That presumably was caused by the outward local spread of the explosion of infections in New Orleans, which officials believe was set off by crowding during Mardi Gras.

By Friday morning, fevers in every county in the country were on a downward trend, depicted in four shades of blue on the map.

Fevers were dropping especially rapidly in the West, from Utah to California and from Washington down to Arizona; in many Western counties, the numbers of people reporting high fevers fell by almost 20 percent. The numbers were also declining rapidly in Maine.

The parts of New Mexico and Colorado that had been slightly “warm” on Wednesday were in light blue, indicating that they were cooling. So were the Louisiana counties.

As of Monday morning, more than three-quarters of the country was deep blue. A separate display of the collective national fever trend, which had spiked upward to a peak on March 17, had fallen so far that it was actually below the band showing historical flu fever trends — which meant that the lockdown has cut not only Covid-19 transmission but flu transmission, too….

For some hard-hit cities, Kinsa also sent The New York Times fever data plotted on a timeline of restrictions enacted by mayors or governors.

Those graphs, Dr. Schaffner noted, showed that simply declaring a state of emergency or limiting the size of public gatherings did not affect the number of people reporting fevers.

But closing restaurants and bars and asking people to stay in their homes produced dramatic results in all three cities.

For example, in Manhattan, reports of fevers steadily rose during early March, despite a declaration of emergency on March 7 and an order on March 12 that public gatherings be restricted to less than 500 people.

The turning point began on March 16, the day schools were closed. Bars and restaurants were closed the next day, and a stay-at-home order took effect on March 20. By March 23, new fevers in Manhattan were below their March 1 levels.

Last Friday, New York State’s own data showed the same trend that Kinsa’s fever readings had spotted five days earlier.

The state tracks hospitalization rates, not fevers. So many patients were being admitted to New York City hospitals, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said, that until March 20, hospitalization rates were doubling roughly every two days.

By Tuesday, the hospitalization rate took four days to double. This is roughly what the fever readings predicted, said Nita Nehru, a company spokeswoman.

Hospitalizations occur several days after symptoms like fever appear. “The cases being counted now had fevers five to 10 days ago,” she said. …

On Friday, the University of California, San Francisco, said its hospitals were not facing a huge surge of patients and gave the credit to the strict shelter-in-place orders imposed by Mayor London Breed on March 16. …

Confirmed cases will keep going up for days, because people do not always go for a Covid-19 test the same day they feel feverish. Besides, many states are doing more tests every day.

 
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  1. What kind of price are we talking here?

    .Brooklyn man arrested for allegedly coughing on FBI agents, selling marked-up medical gear
    A Brooklyn man has been busted for allegedly assaulting FBI agents with a potentially deadly weapon — a cough.

    Baruch Feldheim claimed he had the coronavirus and “allegedly coughed in their direction” when FBI agents busted him Sunday in the New York City borough on suspicion of peddling surgical masks, respirators and other badly-needed medical supplies at “an approximately 700 percent markup,” according to federal prosecutors in New Jersey

    .

    • Replies: @CCZ
    Two Employees Test Positive for Coronavirus at EZ-Pass Office Building in Newark; Employees Walk Off Job

    Submitted by RLS Media Staff on March 30, 2020 - 7:00pm.

    Over a dozen angry employees walked off the job while police officers restored order at EZ-PASS in Newark after company officials reported that two associates tested positive for the coronavirus.

    Employees said the McCarter Highway Newark building has become a "breeding ground" for the coronavirus pandemic after management failed to provide safe working conditions for hundreds of workers who are ordered to come to work during the epidemic daily.

    Shortly before 4 p.m., several police units were called to the building to investigate reports of a disturbance related to a coronavirus patient.

    Police officers arrived and immediately declared the situation under control after employees began to exit the building.
    , @Tusk
    Baruch Feldheim...
    , @Mr. Anon

    Baruch Feldheim claimed he had the coronavirus and “allegedly coughed in their direction” when FBI agents busted him Sunday in the New York City borough on suspicion of peddling surgical masks, respirators and other badly-needed medical supplies at “an approximately 700 percent markup,” according to federal prosecutors in New Jersey.
     
    He coughed in thier direction? I guess, what with the Coronalarity, business is down in the whole fake bomb-plot racket.* I bet that the G-men can still cough on Baruch Feldheim with impunity though. I hope he beats the whole rap - all of it.

    *Actually, it isn't. Business is still booming (or not), so to speak:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8161899/Army-soldier-planned-kill-Beto-ORouke-told-FBI-racists-plot-blow-hospital.html
  2. This is mildly encouraging (and weird–I don’t even get internet service in my garage, but there is internet in places where thermometers go?) but remember that even when new infection rates level off, critically ill patients are staying on ventilators 9-21 days. So if the worst week were somehow, say, next week, the ICUs and their popup overflow facilities will still be filled through May.

    • Replies: @Bard of Bumperstickers
    The Internet of Tongues

    The Rectal Information Superhighway

    5GandMe

    #laughingforthecure

    , @North Carolina Resident
    These thermometers connect to a phone app via bluetooth.
  3. Fevers take an average of 5 days to show, it seems, so the measures that reduced their arrival were those that took place 5 days before the reduction, not the same day, as this article seems to me to rather stupidly imply.

    In other words, simply warning people did have a major effect; which makes perfect sense.

    • Replies: @vhrm

    Fevers take an average of 5 days to show, it seems, so the measures that reduced their arrival were those that took place 5 days before the reduction, not the same day, as this article seems to me to rather stupidly imply.

    In other words, simply warning people did have a major effect; which makes perfect sense.

     

    Mayb the warnings or the banning of large events or the schools.

    Their assertions would be more credible with some discussions of this lag issue (and some graphs of the data rather than just describing the graphs)

    And I'd like to see it split out by age (which they probably have available at least in some cases). They filtered out flu supposedly but what about cold, that kids get and have greenery from all the time?

    Overall I'm willing to believe that the lock down is effective (at least among people who would pay 2x -3x for a smart thermometer and would thus show up in this data),
    but that it's necessary?

    Going to have to have show some serious evidence for that.

  4. Still need to stay in your closet, Steve.

    • Replies: @SFG
    Sadly, yes!
  5. @Charon
    What kind of price are we talking here?


    .Brooklyn man arrested for allegedly coughing on FBI agents, selling marked-up medical gear
    A Brooklyn man has been busted for allegedly assaulting FBI agents with a potentially deadly weapon — a cough.

    Baruch Feldheim claimed he had the coronavirus and “allegedly coughed in their direction” when FBI agents busted him Sunday in the New York City borough on suspicion of peddling surgical masks, respirators and other badly-needed medical supplies at “an approximately 700 percent markup,” according to federal prosecutors in New Jersey
     
    .

    Two Employees Test Positive for Coronavirus at EZ-Pass Office Building in Newark; Employees Walk Off Job

    Submitted by RLS Media Staff on March 30, 2020 – 7:00pm.

    Over a dozen angry employees walked off the job while police officers restored order at EZ-PASS in Newark after company officials reported that two associates tested positive for the coronavirus.

    Employees said the McCarter Highway Newark building has become a “breeding ground” for the coronavirus pandemic after management failed to provide safe working conditions for hundreds of workers who are ordered to come to work during the epidemic daily.

    Shortly before 4 p.m., several police units were called to the building to investigate reports of a disturbance related to a coronavirus patient.

    Police officers arrived and immediately declared the situation under control after employees began to exit the building.

    • Replies: @Louis Renault
    I wonder how many H1B's are testing positive in Seattle?
    , @Hockamaw
    Really feels like the economic and social fallout from this whole fiasco is going to define the next quarter century at least.
  6. The graph looks like our economy crippling measures are over-kill. Maybe we could reopen businesses and restrict gatherings to 50 people plus isolate the elderly like originally planned?

    Or maybe we just acclimate to our new authoritarian neo-communism for a few more months.

    • Agree: TomSchmidt
    • Replies: @Corvinus
    "The graph looks like our economy crippling measures are over-kill."

    Maybe. Then again, perhaps not. We won't truly know for another year.

    "Maybe we could reopen businesses and restrict gatherings to 50 people plus isolate the elderly like originally planned?"

    Talk to your state governor. But, more importantly, are you a medical expert?

    "Or maybe we just acclimate to our new authoritarian neo-communism for a few more months."

    You mean protective measures designed to promote the general welfare of our citizens.
  7. Anonymous[367] • Disclaimer says:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexBerenson

    Berenson’s Theory:

    “Okay, the theory. It’s a THEORY. Don’t kill me. TL/DR version: lockdowns and the resulting panic and health-system stress may be the wrong answer to a virus that mostly spreads intrafamilially and nosocomially. The lessons of China are misunderstood. Japan/Sweden are right…

    The one unquestioned fact about SARS-2-COV: It spreads fast; Chinese scientists put the replication number in Wuhan in January as high as 3.9, meaning each infected person would infect almost 4 others.

    If the infection cycle is six or seven days, that means the number of infected gets big in a hurry. Assume the virus appeared in mid-November in Wuhan, with a seven-day cycle. By Jan. 21, with an R of 3.9, it would have infected hundreds of thousands of people.

    The worldwide estimate is closer to 3.0, per Neil Ferguson, but that still means that after 15 cycles, we’re at tens of millions infected globally.

    Further, the virus probably jumped from China before anyone realized and started circulating by early January elsewhere. Scientists in Seattle suggest the virus was there by Jan. 15; the first known case in Japan came from a Chinese national who arrived in Japan on Jan. 6.

    There’s no reason to believe those were the real first cases. So by mid-February, transmission was common outside China. Why didn’t anyone realize? Partly because it was flu season, partly because the virus is not terribly deadly overall, though it tears up the old and sick.

    So the virus spreads quietly for some time – until something happens. The signal outbreaks all occurred after major events – in Wuhan, Lunar New Year celebrations, in Bergamo, a soccer match that tens of thousands of people attended, and in Madrid, a huge march…

    Those are the gasoline on the fire, leading to sudden increase in transmission. Then what? Panic, and an overwhelming societal response. (In the US, the panic was more media-driven and actually predated a signal citywide outbreak.)

    But back to Japan. Many Japanese wear masks, and scientists increasingly agree masks slow the spread of the virus. How much? Nobody knows, exactly. But maybe enough to slow the R enough to let the virus quietly infect a lot of people without getting much attention.

    That’s key. Because big events may push transmission into public view, but the virus turns out to be mainly transmitted through family members – and healthcare. The Chinese found up to 80 percent of clusters were in families…

    The virus spreads easily, but it isn’t measles. It still generally requires close contact, often in closed spaces – which is why the Chinese told people in quarantine to open their windows.

    So now the controversial part – what if Japan has already had 15 generations of steady transmission, at an R in the low 2s, infecting hundreds of thousands of people, and no one has even noticed?

    In this scenario the real damage of SARS-2-COV comes mostly from the panic – which drives two counterproductive choices, lockdowns and very heavy public healthcare system usage both from people who have the virus and those who fear they do.

    Lockdowns force people to cluster with family members and spread infection, ER visits mix the uninfected with the infected in crowded, high-stress environments; EMT visits are COVID home delivery.

    The panic briefly ups the R at the worst possible time, straining hospitals and staff past their capacity. Then, slowly, the lockdowns slow transmission, but by then the damage is done, and all the hospitals in the affected region can do is manage the fallout.

    We are trying to flatten the curve. But what if instead we’re sharpening the spike?

    Okay, what about China. Lockdowns worked there, right? Maybe. But not for the reasons that are understood. Wuhan was stuck with hundreds of deaths a day for weeks, but the Chinese government mobilized so much additional health-care capacity that it handled the surge.

    Meanwhile, the restrictions outside Hubei didn’t last as long as is commonly thought – by late February many Chinese factories elsewhere were open and production was climbing. By now life in cities like Beijing and Shanghai is almost normal.

    But the virus was already everywhere in China. No way it’s gone. But the removal of the lockdowns was a medico-social signal – you are safe, get back to work. And the masks and minor social distancing lowered R enough to keep it from blowing up again in a visible way.

    If this is correct, what are the lessons for the US and Europe? Well, the outbreak is now so severe in NYC that the city probably faces a rough couple of weeks and needs to be on lockdown. But everywhere else lockdowns should be reconsidered.

    Instead, people should be encouraged to wear masks, and large gatherings – 50 or more, say – should be temporarily banned. That means no restaurants or bars, and masks on planes. But retail outlets and workplaces should be open.

    Hospitals and nursing homes should be closed to visitors and have fever checks. Widespread testing makes sense, as long as it is done in ways that won’t lead to lots of cross-transmission. Otherwise we go about our lives, wait for summer, and slowly build herd immunity.

    I know this isn’t going to happen. The public health and political die has been cast. And hell, maybe it’s entirely wrong. It’s certainly not conventional wisdom. But given the costs of lockdown – both economic and societal – it seems worth considering.”

  8. @CCZ
    Two Employees Test Positive for Coronavirus at EZ-Pass Office Building in Newark; Employees Walk Off Job

    Submitted by RLS Media Staff on March 30, 2020 - 7:00pm.

    Over a dozen angry employees walked off the job while police officers restored order at EZ-PASS in Newark after company officials reported that two associates tested positive for the coronavirus.

    Employees said the McCarter Highway Newark building has become a "breeding ground" for the coronavirus pandemic after management failed to provide safe working conditions for hundreds of workers who are ordered to come to work during the epidemic daily.

    Shortly before 4 p.m., several police units were called to the building to investigate reports of a disturbance related to a coronavirus patient.

    Police officers arrived and immediately declared the situation under control after employees began to exit the building.

    I wonder how many H1B’s are testing positive in Seattle?

  9. they weren’t visited by too many Milanese fashionistas in February

    But the Jr. Boomers have returned from Spring Break. Now if only Obama had finished the high speed trains, imagine where the New Yorkers could have gotten too?

  10. @Redneck farmer
    Still need to stay in your closet, Steve.

    Sadly, yes!

  11. Not sure if you’ve seen this yet:

    https://www.praguemorning.cz/usage-of-masks-flattened-growth-of-coronavirus-cases-in-czech-republic/

    The mask-denialism from the government and the media is probably the most shocking aspect of this whole situation.

    2016: build the wall

    2020: wear the mask

    • Thanks: vhrm
    • Replies: @dfordoom

    The mask-denialism from the government and the media is probably the most shocking aspect of this whole situation.
     
    I agree. Even if masks are only partially effective they're still a simple low-tech solution that should have a definite curve-flattening effect.

    It seems like western governments have painted themselves into a corner. Having told us that masks were useless they cannot now tell us that masks are actually useful without looking like they were either lying or incompetent. So instead of admitting they might have been wrong they double down.
  12. @Pestartzt
    This is mildly encouraging (and weird--I don't even get internet service in my garage, but there is internet in places where thermometers go?) but remember that even when new infection rates level off, critically ill patients are staying on ventilators 9-21 days. So if the worst week were somehow, say, next week, the ICUs and their popup overflow facilities will still be filled through May.

    The Internet of Tongues

    The Rectal Information Superhighway

    5GandMe

    #laughingforthecure

  13. “Restrictions Are Slowing Coronavirus Infections”

    Is that a good thing? Fewer infections among the young means less immunity among the young which means herd immunity is impossible to achieve which means this is going to be the forever plague.

    High IQ East Asians discuss coronavirus with English subtitles.
    You might have to shut off subtitles in other langauges.

    • Thanks: PiltdownMan, Alan Mercer
    • Replies: @leterip
    Thanks - this was an excellent video.
    , @leterip
    Thanks - this was an excellent video.
    , @vhrm
    That video is an excellent review of the state of affairs, thanks.

    I wish American officials would speak like that. I don't mean in Korean, but with that level of clarity and detail. It's not too deep, but at the same time it includes numbers when appropriate, it speaks of alternative possibilities when appropriate and overall sounds very reasonable.
  14. They get about 160,000 readings per day from across the country.

    Or 50 per county on average. How accurate can the smaller counties’ readings be?

    Loving Co., Texas is down 10%. Never mind flu cases, their entire population barely hits three figures.

    • Replies: @Lugash
    I think we need to verify Kinsa's thermometers before we trust them. Assuming a 10% per day usage rate that's 1.6 million thermometers. Have they sold that many?
    , @PiltdownMan

    Or 50 per county on average. How accurate can the smaller counties’ readings be?
     
    I don't know the answer to that but I do know that the science of mathematical statistics arose from the need to figure out large scale trends and truths from small sample sizes.

    It may also be telling that the data points they display don't bounce around randomly. That suggests that the sample size is large enough to be indicative, of fevers, and, by proxy, of Covid-19.

    PiltdownChild1 is holed up in a remote rural county collegetown, along with a bunch of other seniors. That Kinsa map is what we've used to keep tabs on how wise a decision it was. So far, so good.

    PS: It's not the NY county you mentioned in a post a week or so ago.
  15. Jews the world over among hardest hit by coronavirus

    https://www.ynetnews.com/article/S1dy14yvU

    Kind of ironic the historically Jew were falsely accused of spreading disease while now Jews are actually spreading disease but no gentile will talk about it.

  16. Helmut Marko wanted Red Bull’s F1 drivers to deliberately catch coronavirus

    Season break is ‘ideal time’ to get virus, says Marko
    Idea ‘has not been well received’ by officials at Red Bull

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/mar/30/helmut-marko-wanted-red-bull-f1-drivers-to-deliberately-catch-coronavirus

    Fire Pence and put Marko in charge of US Covid policy. There are too many useless wussies running the show.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    It's what happens when the people making the decisions are in the group that really DOES face an existential crisis from the virus. Trump, Pelosi, Schumer, Pence: when they're locking down the country, they are, in Wall Street terms, talking their book.
  17. @UK
    Fevers take an average of 5 days to show, it seems, so the measures that reduced their arrival were those that took place 5 days before the reduction, not the same day, as this article seems to me to rather stupidly imply.

    In other words, simply warning people did have a major effect; which makes perfect sense.

    Fevers take an average of 5 days to show, it seems, so the measures that reduced their arrival were those that took place 5 days before the reduction, not the same day, as this article seems to me to rather stupidly imply.

    In other words, simply warning people did have a major effect; which makes perfect sense.

    Mayb the warnings or the banning of large events or the schools.

    Their assertions would be more credible with some discussions of this lag issue (and some graphs of the data rather than just describing the graphs)

    And I’d like to see it split out by age (which they probably have available at least in some cases). They filtered out flu supposedly but what about cold, that kids get and have greenery from all the time?

    Overall I’m willing to believe that the lock down is effective (at least among people who would pay 2x -3x for a smart thermometer and would thus show up in this data),
    but that it’s necessary?

    Going to have to have show some serious evidence for that.

  18. @CCZ
    Two Employees Test Positive for Coronavirus at EZ-Pass Office Building in Newark; Employees Walk Off Job

    Submitted by RLS Media Staff on March 30, 2020 - 7:00pm.

    Over a dozen angry employees walked off the job while police officers restored order at EZ-PASS in Newark after company officials reported that two associates tested positive for the coronavirus.

    Employees said the McCarter Highway Newark building has become a "breeding ground" for the coronavirus pandemic after management failed to provide safe working conditions for hundreds of workers who are ordered to come to work during the epidemic daily.

    Shortly before 4 p.m., several police units were called to the building to investigate reports of a disturbance related to a coronavirus patient.

    Police officers arrived and immediately declared the situation under control after employees began to exit the building.

    Really feels like the economic and social fallout from this whole fiasco is going to define the next quarter century at least.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    We put more chewing gum and bailing wire on the debt-based economic system, while immiserating even more of the people whose jobs do not allow them to work from home.

    At some point there will be enough of those people to vote for a debt-Jubilee national system, and the politician who runs on that platform will be the first to win 50 states.

    Of course, if, as in the 7th century, most of the society converts to Islam, then usury-based debt will be canceled. There's no way we muddle through this.
  19. Anon[424] • Disclaimer says:

    Iran has figured out how to deal with the morale problem. They’re discontinuing all printed newspapers.

    Wuhan urn count. Seven large funeral homes are handing out this week 500 urns a day each to families. 7 funeral homes x 500 urns x 12 days=42,000. “Funeral homes have informed families that they will try to complete cremations before the traditional grave-tending festival of Qing Ming on April 5, which would indicate a 12-day process beginning on March 23. Such an estimate would mean that 42,000 urns would be given out during that time.”

    https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/wuhan-deaths-03272020182846.html

    If Wuhan has the same death rate as Italy, that means they may have had around 400,000 infections.

    Louisiana department of health says there are Covid-19 clusters in 28 nursing homes in that state. They define a cluster of at least 2 people.

    http://ldh.la.gov/index.cfm/newsroom/detail/5521

    Louisiana has a list of co-morbidities they’re collected so far from their hospitals:

    Diabetes (40%)
    Obesity (25%)
    Chronic Kidney Disease (23%)
    Cardiac (21%)
    Pulmonary (12%) (Duh.)
    Neurological (6%)
    Immunocompromised (4%)
    Chronic Liver Disease (2%) (The drunks are surviving!)
    No Underlying Conditions (3%) (It likely means patients who haven’t gone to the doctor in years and thus have never been diagnosed with a condition, not people who really have no conditions).

    Being fat and diabetic appears to be the most common morbidity. Chronic Kidney disease is the sort of thing you can get if you’ve had uncontrolled type 2 diabetes for a number of years. I’m surprised that other pulmonary (lung) conditions are only 12%. That should include other flu, pneumonia, COPD, and emphysema.

    Covid-19 is turning out to be a Grim Reaper for the Walmart scooter crowd. A diet high in sugar causes a lot of inflammation, and inflamed tissue tends to be high in ACE 2 receptors.

    • Thanks: The Wild Geese Howard
    • Replies: @vinny
    "Seven large funeral homes are handing out this week 500 urns a day each to families. "

    Dang and I thought I had a big family.
    , @Ed
    This virus is really going to have its way if it spreads in mostly black cities.

    https://minorityhealth.hhs.gov/omh/browse.aspx?lvl=4&lvlid=18



    Diabetes and African Americans


    African American adults are 60 percent more likely than non-Hispanic white adults to have been diagnosed with diabetes by a physician.

    In 2016, non-Hispanic blacks were 3.5 times more likely to be diagnosed with end stage renal disease as compared to non-Hispanic whites.

    In 2016, non-Hispanic blacks were 2.3 times more likely to be hospitalized for lower limb amputations as compared to non-Hispanic whites.

    In 2017, African Americans were twice as likely as non-Hispanic whites to die from diabetes.
     
    , @William Badwhite

    Being fat and diabetic appears to be the most common morbidity.
     
    If that's the case, its going to be harder on the US' negroes. Which will be obviously due to systemic racism and white privilege. NYT: "Blacks are fat and unhealthy; whites to blame".
    , @Hippopotamusdrome


    Iran has figured out how to deal with the morale problem. They’re discontinuing all printed newspapers.

     

    We should try that.
  20. I was reading on a medical board that a forehead thermometer can give a very inexact measurement. If all you do is drink a cup of hot coffee, it will throw your temperature off.

  21. How much of the data are distorted by healthy people now checking temperature 50 times a day now that they are worried about coronavirus?

  22. @Pestartzt
    This is mildly encouraging (and weird--I don't even get internet service in my garage, but there is internet in places where thermometers go?) but remember that even when new infection rates level off, critically ill patients are staying on ventilators 9-21 days. So if the worst week were somehow, say, next week, the ICUs and their popup overflow facilities will still be filled through May.

    These thermometers connect to a phone app via bluetooth.

  23. @Anon
    Iran has figured out how to deal with the morale problem. They're discontinuing all printed newspapers.

    Wuhan urn count. Seven large funeral homes are handing out this week 500 urns a day each to families. 7 funeral homes x 500 urns x 12 days=42,000. "Funeral homes have informed families that they will try to complete cremations before the traditional grave-tending festival of Qing Ming on April 5, which would indicate a 12-day process beginning on March 23. Such an estimate would mean that 42,000 urns would be given out during that time."

    https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/wuhan-deaths-03272020182846.html

    If Wuhan has the same death rate as Italy, that means they may have had around 400,000 infections.

    Louisiana department of health says there are Covid-19 clusters in 28 nursing homes in that state. They define a cluster of at least 2 people.

    http://ldh.la.gov/index.cfm/newsroom/detail/5521

    Louisiana has a list of co-morbidities they're collected so far from their hospitals:

    Diabetes (40%)
    Obesity (25%)
    Chronic Kidney Disease (23%)
    Cardiac (21%)
    Pulmonary (12%) (Duh.)
    Neurological (6%)
    Immunocompromised (4%)
    Chronic Liver Disease (2%) (The drunks are surviving!)
    No Underlying Conditions (3%) (It likely means patients who haven't gone to the doctor in years and thus have never been diagnosed with a condition, not people who really have no conditions).

    Being fat and diabetic appears to be the most common morbidity. Chronic Kidney disease is the sort of thing you can get if you've had uncontrolled type 2 diabetes for a number of years. I'm surprised that other pulmonary (lung) conditions are only 12%. That should include other flu, pneumonia, COPD, and emphysema.

    Covid-19 is turning out to be a Grim Reaper for the Walmart scooter crowd. A diet high in sugar causes a lot of inflammation, and inflamed tissue tends to be high in ACE 2 receptors.

    “Seven large funeral homes are handing out this week 500 urns a day each to families. ”

    Dang and I thought I had a big family.

  24. @Reg Cæsar

    They get about 160,000 readings per day from across the country.
     
    Or 50 per county on average. How accurate can the smaller counties' readings be?

    Loving Co., Texas is down 10%. Never mind flu cases, their entire population barely hits three figures.

    I think we need to verify Kinsa’s thermometers before we trust them. Assuming a 10% per day usage rate that’s 1.6 million thermometers. Have they sold that many?

  25. @Reg Cæsar

    They get about 160,000 readings per day from across the country.
     
    Or 50 per county on average. How accurate can the smaller counties' readings be?

    Loving Co., Texas is down 10%. Never mind flu cases, their entire population barely hits three figures.

    Or 50 per county on average. How accurate can the smaller counties’ readings be?

    I don’t know the answer to that but I do know that the science of mathematical statistics arose from the need to figure out large scale trends and truths from small sample sizes.

    It may also be telling that the data points they display don’t bounce around randomly. That suggests that the sample size is large enough to be indicative, of fevers, and, by proxy, of Covid-19.

    PiltdownChild1 is holed up in a remote rural county collegetown, along with a bunch of other seniors. That Kinsa map is what we’ve used to keep tabs on how wise a decision it was. So far, so good.

    PS: It’s not the NY county you mentioned in a post a week or so ago.

  26. Anon[424] • Disclaimer says:

    Germany’s low death rate is now explained. They’ve been testing over 500,000 people a week:

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-germany-tests/mass-testing-explains-germanys-relatively-low-death-rate-from-coronavirus-virologist-idUSKBN21D1FL

    Their death rate is currently 0.96%.

    The only other country that has done massive testing is South Korea, and their current death rate is 1.65%. But what’s interesting is that half of the infected people in South Korea are now considered recovered.

    Diamond Princess current death rate is 1.4% Most importantly, 85% of their infected people have now recovered.

    Judging from the last two measures, the real overall death rate from Covid-19 may be around 1.4% to 1.65%. Since the US death rate is around 1.8%, our actual reported infection rate in the US may be missing only around 20K cases, not millions, as others have assumed. Even that may be in decline by now from social distancing.

    • Agree: Smithsonian_6, Ed
    • Replies: @Polynikes
    But flu’s death rate is based on an estimate of people infected, not testing everyone. So it’s still not a direct comparison. If you re-evaluate the regular flu’s death rate based on only confirmed tests it will raise up from 0.1%.
  27. Is this supposed to make me feel good? You are applauding the murder of our livelihoods in order to slightly lower the fever rate. Hey Steve, you know what else is deadly? Bullets and blades wielded by folk who have nothing less to lose. Bet you haven’t considered that “vector,” have you?

    • Replies: @Testing12
    But it's an exponential rate! Clearly, the only logical conclusion is covid-singularity!
  28. @Charon
    What kind of price are we talking here?


    .Brooklyn man arrested for allegedly coughing on FBI agents, selling marked-up medical gear
    A Brooklyn man has been busted for allegedly assaulting FBI agents with a potentially deadly weapon — a cough.

    Baruch Feldheim claimed he had the coronavirus and “allegedly coughed in their direction” when FBI agents busted him Sunday in the New York City borough on suspicion of peddling surgical masks, respirators and other badly-needed medical supplies at “an approximately 700 percent markup,” according to federal prosecutors in New Jersey
     
    .

    Baruch Feldheim…

  29. @George
    "Restrictions Are Slowing Coronavirus Infections"

    Is that a good thing? Fewer infections among the young means less immunity among the young which means herd immunity is impossible to achieve which means this is going to be the forever plague.

    High IQ East Asians discuss coronavirus with English subtitles.
    You might have to shut off subtitles in other langauges.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU&t=467s

    Thanks – this was an excellent video.

  30. @George
    "Restrictions Are Slowing Coronavirus Infections"

    Is that a good thing? Fewer infections among the young means less immunity among the young which means herd immunity is impossible to achieve which means this is going to be the forever plague.

    High IQ East Asians discuss coronavirus with English subtitles.
    You might have to shut off subtitles in other langauges.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU&t=467s

    Thanks – this was an excellent video.

  31. Do we know that this actually reflects a smaller number of people with a fever and not just more worried well taking their temperature and therefore a lower fraction of people with a fever?

  32. Seems like this would conflate the dynamics of fever incidence with the dynamics of deciding to take your temperature, which is probably changing a lot based on the news and on when the last time you took your temperature was.

    • Agree: PiltdownMan
  33. The company, Kinsa Health, which produces internet-connected thermometers, first created a national map of fever levels on March 22 and was able to spot the trend within a day. Since then, data from the health departments of New York State and Washington State have buttressed the finding, making it clear that social distancing is saving lives.

    No, it clearly shows that there has been a drop off in fever among people who use Kinsa thermometers. That is all that it “clearly shows”.

    • Agree: Cortes
    • Replies: @Cortes
    Not quite “all” that it clearly shows.

    It also seems to demonstrate that there’s always an opportunity to plug the company’s products with a little imagination in the right heads. (Product placement doesn’t always have to mean the bottle of J &B in the centre of the gantry).
  34. @Charon
    What kind of price are we talking here?


    .Brooklyn man arrested for allegedly coughing on FBI agents, selling marked-up medical gear
    A Brooklyn man has been busted for allegedly assaulting FBI agents with a potentially deadly weapon — a cough.

    Baruch Feldheim claimed he had the coronavirus and “allegedly coughed in their direction” when FBI agents busted him Sunday in the New York City borough on suspicion of peddling surgical masks, respirators and other badly-needed medical supplies at “an approximately 700 percent markup,” according to federal prosecutors in New Jersey
     
    .

    Baruch Feldheim claimed he had the coronavirus and “allegedly coughed in their direction” when FBI agents busted him Sunday in the New York City borough on suspicion of peddling surgical masks, respirators and other badly-needed medical supplies at “an approximately 700 percent markup,” according to federal prosecutors in New Jersey.

    He coughed in thier direction? I guess, what with the Coronalarity, business is down in the whole fake bomb-plot racket.* I bet that the G-men can still cough on Baruch Feldheim with impunity though. I hope he beats the whole rap – all of it.

    *Actually, it isn’t. Business is still booming (or not), so to speak:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8161899/Army-soldier-planned-kill-Beto-ORouke-told-FBI-racists-plot-blow-hospital.html

  35. @George
    "Restrictions Are Slowing Coronavirus Infections"

    Is that a good thing? Fewer infections among the young means less immunity among the young which means herd immunity is impossible to achieve which means this is going to be the forever plague.

    High IQ East Asians discuss coronavirus with English subtitles.
    You might have to shut off subtitles in other langauges.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU&t=467s

    That video is an excellent review of the state of affairs, thanks.

    I wish American officials would speak like that. I don’t mean in Korean, but with that level of clarity and detail. It’s not too deep, but at the same time it includes numbers when appropriate, it speaks of alternative possibilities when appropriate and overall sounds very reasonable.

  36. @Mr. Anon

    The company, Kinsa Health, which produces internet-connected thermometers, first created a national map of fever levels on March 22 and was able to spot the trend within a day. Since then, data from the health departments of New York State and Washington State have buttressed the finding, making it clear that social distancing is saving lives.
     
    No, it clearly shows that there has been a drop off in fever among people who use Kinsa thermometers. That is all that it "clearly shows".

    Not quite “all” that it clearly shows.

    It also seems to demonstrate that there’s always an opportunity to plug the company’s products with a little imagination in the right heads. (Product placement doesn’t always have to mean the bottle of J &B in the centre of the gantry).

  37. Ed says:
    @Anon
    Iran has figured out how to deal with the morale problem. They're discontinuing all printed newspapers.

    Wuhan urn count. Seven large funeral homes are handing out this week 500 urns a day each to families. 7 funeral homes x 500 urns x 12 days=42,000. "Funeral homes have informed families that they will try to complete cremations before the traditional grave-tending festival of Qing Ming on April 5, which would indicate a 12-day process beginning on March 23. Such an estimate would mean that 42,000 urns would be given out during that time."

    https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/wuhan-deaths-03272020182846.html

    If Wuhan has the same death rate as Italy, that means they may have had around 400,000 infections.

    Louisiana department of health says there are Covid-19 clusters in 28 nursing homes in that state. They define a cluster of at least 2 people.

    http://ldh.la.gov/index.cfm/newsroom/detail/5521

    Louisiana has a list of co-morbidities they're collected so far from their hospitals:

    Diabetes (40%)
    Obesity (25%)
    Chronic Kidney Disease (23%)
    Cardiac (21%)
    Pulmonary (12%) (Duh.)
    Neurological (6%)
    Immunocompromised (4%)
    Chronic Liver Disease (2%) (The drunks are surviving!)
    No Underlying Conditions (3%) (It likely means patients who haven't gone to the doctor in years and thus have never been diagnosed with a condition, not people who really have no conditions).

    Being fat and diabetic appears to be the most common morbidity. Chronic Kidney disease is the sort of thing you can get if you've had uncontrolled type 2 diabetes for a number of years. I'm surprised that other pulmonary (lung) conditions are only 12%. That should include other flu, pneumonia, COPD, and emphysema.

    Covid-19 is turning out to be a Grim Reaper for the Walmart scooter crowd. A diet high in sugar causes a lot of inflammation, and inflamed tissue tends to be high in ACE 2 receptors.

    This virus is really going to have its way if it spreads in mostly black cities.

    https://minorityhealth.hhs.gov/omh/browse.aspx?lvl=4&lvlid=18


    Diabetes and African Americans

    African American adults are 60 percent more likely than non-Hispanic white adults to have been diagnosed with diabetes by a physician.

    In 2016, non-Hispanic blacks were 3.5 times more likely to be diagnosed with end stage renal disease as compared to non-Hispanic whites.

    In 2016, non-Hispanic blacks were 2.3 times more likely to be hospitalized for lower limb amputations as compared to non-Hispanic whites.

    In 2017, African Americans were twice as likely as non-Hispanic whites to die from diabetes.

  38. @Anon
    Germany's low death rate is now explained. They've been testing over 500,000 people a week:

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-germany-tests/mass-testing-explains-germanys-relatively-low-death-rate-from-coronavirus-virologist-idUSKBN21D1FL

    Their death rate is currently 0.96%.

    The only other country that has done massive testing is South Korea, and their current death rate is 1.65%. But what's interesting is that half of the infected people in South Korea are now considered recovered.

    Diamond Princess current death rate is 1.4% Most importantly, 85% of their infected people have now recovered.

    Judging from the last two measures, the real overall death rate from Covid-19 may be around 1.4% to 1.65%. Since the US death rate is around 1.8%, our actual reported infection rate in the US may be missing only around 20K cases, not millions, as others have assumed. Even that may be in decline by now from social distancing.

    But flu’s death rate is based on an estimate of people infected, not testing everyone. So it’s still not a direct comparison. If you re-evaluate the regular flu’s death rate based on only confirmed tests it will raise up from 0.1%.

  39. First they came for our temperatures, and I said nothing because I was a nice cool 98.6 …

  40. @George
    Helmut Marko wanted Red Bull's F1 drivers to deliberately catch coronavirus

    Season break is ‘ideal time’ to get virus, says Marko
    Idea ‘has not been well received’ by officials at Red Bull

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/mar/30/helmut-marko-wanted-red-bull-f1-drivers-to-deliberately-catch-coronavirus

    Fire Pence and put Marko in charge of US Covid policy. There are too many useless wussies running the show.

    It’s what happens when the people making the decisions are in the group that really DOES face an existential crisis from the virus. Trump, Pelosi, Schumer, Pence: when they’re locking down the country, they are, in Wall Street terms, talking their book.

  41. @Hockamaw
    Really feels like the economic and social fallout from this whole fiasco is going to define the next quarter century at least.

    We put more chewing gum and bailing wire on the debt-based economic system, while immiserating even more of the people whose jobs do not allow them to work from home.

    At some point there will be enough of those people to vote for a debt-Jubilee national system, and the politician who runs on that platform will be the first to win 50 states.

    Of course, if, as in the 7th century, most of the society converts to Islam, then usury-based debt will be canceled. There’s no way we muddle through this.

  42. @Clement Pulaski
    Not sure if you've seen this yet:

    https://www.praguemorning.cz/usage-of-masks-flattened-growth-of-coronavirus-cases-in-czech-republic/

    The mask-denialism from the government and the media is probably the most shocking aspect of this whole situation.

    2016: build the wall

    2020: wear the mask

    The mask-denialism from the government and the media is probably the most shocking aspect of this whole situation.

    I agree. Even if masks are only partially effective they’re still a simple low-tech solution that should have a definite curve-flattening effect.

    It seems like western governments have painted themselves into a corner. Having told us that masks were useless they cannot now tell us that masks are actually useful without looking like they were either lying or incompetent. So instead of admitting they might have been wrong they double down.

  43. I don’t know enough about microbiology or medicine, but you would think that some sort of national surveillance system for viruses could be set up by constructing a nationally representative sample with blood from blood drives, routine blood work, etc. Have a certain number of donors, examinees sign away their HIPPA privacy rights, take a bit of the blood from bloodwork or donation, test it for immunoglobulin levels and if high or unusual, test if for known viruses. Would/could that work on a national level? I’m talking all the time, not just when we are facing a pandemic.

  44. @Anon
    Iran has figured out how to deal with the morale problem. They're discontinuing all printed newspapers.

    Wuhan urn count. Seven large funeral homes are handing out this week 500 urns a day each to families. 7 funeral homes x 500 urns x 12 days=42,000. "Funeral homes have informed families that they will try to complete cremations before the traditional grave-tending festival of Qing Ming on April 5, which would indicate a 12-day process beginning on March 23. Such an estimate would mean that 42,000 urns would be given out during that time."

    https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/wuhan-deaths-03272020182846.html

    If Wuhan has the same death rate as Italy, that means they may have had around 400,000 infections.

    Louisiana department of health says there are Covid-19 clusters in 28 nursing homes in that state. They define a cluster of at least 2 people.

    http://ldh.la.gov/index.cfm/newsroom/detail/5521

    Louisiana has a list of co-morbidities they're collected so far from their hospitals:

    Diabetes (40%)
    Obesity (25%)
    Chronic Kidney Disease (23%)
    Cardiac (21%)
    Pulmonary (12%) (Duh.)
    Neurological (6%)
    Immunocompromised (4%)
    Chronic Liver Disease (2%) (The drunks are surviving!)
    No Underlying Conditions (3%) (It likely means patients who haven't gone to the doctor in years and thus have never been diagnosed with a condition, not people who really have no conditions).

    Being fat and diabetic appears to be the most common morbidity. Chronic Kidney disease is the sort of thing you can get if you've had uncontrolled type 2 diabetes for a number of years. I'm surprised that other pulmonary (lung) conditions are only 12%. That should include other flu, pneumonia, COPD, and emphysema.

    Covid-19 is turning out to be a Grim Reaper for the Walmart scooter crowd. A diet high in sugar causes a lot of inflammation, and inflamed tissue tends to be high in ACE 2 receptors.

    Being fat and diabetic appears to be the most common morbidity.

    If that’s the case, its going to be harder on the US’ negroes. Which will be obviously due to systemic racism and white privilege. NYT: “Blacks are fat and unhealthy; whites to blame”.

  45. I ordered an old-fashioned style glass non-mercury thermometer on Ebay.

    No batteries needed. Not to mention no surveillance apparatus.

  46. @MattinLA
    Is this supposed to make me feel good? You are applauding the murder of our livelihoods in order to slightly lower the fever rate. Hey Steve, you know what else is deadly? Bullets and blades wielded by folk who have nothing less to lose. Bet you haven't considered that "vector," have you?

    But it’s an exponential rate! Clearly, the only logical conclusion is covid-singularity!

  47. @Polynikes
    The graph looks like our economy crippling measures are over-kill. Maybe we could reopen businesses and restrict gatherings to 50 people plus isolate the elderly like originally planned?

    Or maybe we just acclimate to our new authoritarian neo-communism for a few more months.

    “The graph looks like our economy crippling measures are over-kill.”

    Maybe. Then again, perhaps not. We won’t truly know for another year.

    “Maybe we could reopen businesses and restrict gatherings to 50 people plus isolate the elderly like originally planned?”

    Talk to your state governor. But, more importantly, are you a medical expert?

    “Or maybe we just acclimate to our new authoritarian neo-communism for a few more months.”

    You mean protective measures designed to promote the general welfare of our citizens.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    "You mean protective measures designed to promote the general welfare of our citizens."

    Promote the general welfare is a captivating phrase.

    At what point do you think the lockdown is too high a price to pay? What rules do you use to judge? If the cost per year of life saved is...what amount?

    I ask, because thinking about the "general welfare" phrasing brings this to mind. It was only in the 20th century that expected human lifespan exceeded that of an African goldfish at about 50 years.
  48. @Anon
    Iran has figured out how to deal with the morale problem. They're discontinuing all printed newspapers.

    Wuhan urn count. Seven large funeral homes are handing out this week 500 urns a day each to families. 7 funeral homes x 500 urns x 12 days=42,000. "Funeral homes have informed families that they will try to complete cremations before the traditional grave-tending festival of Qing Ming on April 5, which would indicate a 12-day process beginning on March 23. Such an estimate would mean that 42,000 urns would be given out during that time."

    https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/wuhan-deaths-03272020182846.html

    If Wuhan has the same death rate as Italy, that means they may have had around 400,000 infections.

    Louisiana department of health says there are Covid-19 clusters in 28 nursing homes in that state. They define a cluster of at least 2 people.

    http://ldh.la.gov/index.cfm/newsroom/detail/5521

    Louisiana has a list of co-morbidities they're collected so far from their hospitals:

    Diabetes (40%)
    Obesity (25%)
    Chronic Kidney Disease (23%)
    Cardiac (21%)
    Pulmonary (12%) (Duh.)
    Neurological (6%)
    Immunocompromised (4%)
    Chronic Liver Disease (2%) (The drunks are surviving!)
    No Underlying Conditions (3%) (It likely means patients who haven't gone to the doctor in years and thus have never been diagnosed with a condition, not people who really have no conditions).

    Being fat and diabetic appears to be the most common morbidity. Chronic Kidney disease is the sort of thing you can get if you've had uncontrolled type 2 diabetes for a number of years. I'm surprised that other pulmonary (lung) conditions are only 12%. That should include other flu, pneumonia, COPD, and emphysema.

    Covid-19 is turning out to be a Grim Reaper for the Walmart scooter crowd. A diet high in sugar causes a lot of inflammation, and inflamed tissue tends to be high in ACE 2 receptors.

    Iran has figured out how to deal with the morale problem. They’re discontinuing all printed newspapers.

    We should try that.

  49. Oh it’s much worse than just your temperature. Your Roomba is apparently recording how dirty you are and mapping where in the house it comes from.

    Smart toilet anybody?

  50. @Corvinus
    "The graph looks like our economy crippling measures are over-kill."

    Maybe. Then again, perhaps not. We won't truly know for another year.

    "Maybe we could reopen businesses and restrict gatherings to 50 people plus isolate the elderly like originally planned?"

    Talk to your state governor. But, more importantly, are you a medical expert?

    "Or maybe we just acclimate to our new authoritarian neo-communism for a few more months."

    You mean protective measures designed to promote the general welfare of our citizens.

    “You mean protective measures designed to promote the general welfare of our citizens.”

    Promote the general welfare is a captivating phrase.

    At what point do you think the lockdown is too high a price to pay? What rules do you use to judge? If the cost per year of life saved is…what amount?

    I ask, because thinking about the “general welfare” phrasing brings this to mind. It was only in the 20th century that expected human lifespan exceeded that of an African goldfish at about 50 years.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    "Promote the general welfare is a captivating phrase."

    A phrase made famous by our Founding Fathers.

    "At what point do you think the lockdown is too high a price to pay? What rules do you use to judge? If the cost per year of life saved is…what amount?"

    From unz.com commenter Jus’ Sayin’:


    The overarching issue is that the USA and all other countries with free market economies are faced with a nightmarish and probably insoluble policy conundrum/dilemma. I use the word “insoluble” advisedly because we are currently operating in a “fog of war” situation. We lack the data needed to make a fully informed choice between two broad policy options, both of which carry potentially catastrophic risks. Yet we must make this choice now.

    On the one hand, if stringent public health measures are not put in place and the current pandemic is allowed to run its natural course, hundreds of millions may be sickened, tens of millions may die, and some as yet unknown portion of the survivors may have permanent, disabling damage to vital organs. The worse projections suggest that health care systems will be overwhelmed to the point that many millions will be denied life-saving care. In this case there will be permanent long-term damage to these systems that will require decades of rebuilding. Historically, uncontrolled pandemics have profound, long term social and cultural impacts that are difficult to gauge. Standing against this, bad pandemics clear much human deadwood, i.e., pensioners like myself, from the economy.

    Taking the opposite approach – the one I favored absolutely until I engaged with the more informed and rational commenters here and elsewhere – and imposing stringent public health measures lasting for many months will disrupt economies, which are already alarmingly fragile, to an extent comparable with the Great Depression. Tragically, those who would be most affected are already living on the edge of economic disaster. Much of the middle class would also suffer serious economic disruptions.

    The engines currently maintaining economies in the developed world are consumer expenditures and massive, overwhelming debt in all sectors and at every level of the economy. If stringent public health measures are enacted, those most affected, e.g., workers in the food service, entertainment, hospitality, and tourism, industries, will be left without even the meager financial resources they have now. Without government assistance they will lose housing, food, and hope. Meanwhile, these same people, a major segment of the consumer economy, will be unable to continue the consumption that currently helps maintains the economy of the USA and other countries. It is imperative that in a situation like this, these people receive help. Otherwise a catastrophic collapse of political, social, and economic systems is almost inevitable.

    Small businesses would be similarly impacted by stringent public health measures, as would even the largest corporations in industries like those mentioned above. The ultimate impact on the economy will be even greater.

    So if governments choose not to let the current pandemic run its course they would have to support those individuals and small businesses, who face economic and personal catastrophe absent government support. The continued spending on consumer goods by these individuals and businesses is vital to maintaining the economy. Governments would also have to support industries hardest hit by necessary public health measures. Without such support, the likely collapse of these industries would cause a ripple effects that would bring further catastrophe.

    Unfortunately, the devil is in the details. Governments that choose to impose strict public health measures to control the pandemic would need to provide subsidies to affected individuals, households, and businesses.



    I live in Massachusetts. If one uses Chinese experience in Wuhan to conservatively project a doubling of infections every five days and a case mortality rate of 2 per hundred in the absence of infection controls, then without prompt public health action, Massachusetts might experience projected infections and deaths like the ones in the table below.

    Date Infections Deaths
    15-Mar-20 164 3
    20-Mar-20 328 7
    25-Mar-20 656 13
    30-Mar-20 1,312 26
    4-Apr-20 2,624 52
    9-Apr-20 5,248 105
    14-Apr-20 10,496 210
    19-Apr-20 20,992 420
    24-Apr-20 41,984 840
    29-Apr-20 83,968 1,679
    4-May-20 167,936 3,359
    9-May-20 335,872 6,717
    14-May-20 671,744 13,435

    Of course, the further out projections are much too high. The curve of total infections in an epidemic take the shape of a logistic curve. At some point exponential growth ends and the rate of new infections flattens out; eventually ending as the epidemic burns itself out.

    But looking at these figures, one understands why Governor Baker decided to close schools, limit bars and restaurants to take out, and ban all public gatherings of 25 or more people. These measures may help prevent a foreseeable catastrophe.



    [AND NOW THE MONEY QUOTE***]

    ****Americans, and the developed world in general, have forgotten just how bad infectious disease epidemics can be and what difficult public health measures measures may be needed to curb them. As the projections above should suggest, now is a time for urgent public health measures to control what in their absence could become a catastrophe. Unfortunately, the populations of developed nations, the USA in particular, have become accustomed to the luxury of ignoring the dangers of infectious diseases and infectious disease epidemics****. Some of the inappropriate responses have been irrational outbreaks of panic on the one hand and a petulant anger at necessary prohibitions on the other. Just yesterday, I read that a wannabe Typhoid Mary, a man confirmed to have an active case of Covid-19, had to be physically restrained by police lest he go out into the community and spread the disease. A bar owner in Nashville, Tennessee, has ignored the mayor’s orders and turned his venue into a hot spot for Covid-19 infections.
     
  51. @TomSchmidt
    "You mean protective measures designed to promote the general welfare of our citizens."

    Promote the general welfare is a captivating phrase.

    At what point do you think the lockdown is too high a price to pay? What rules do you use to judge? If the cost per year of life saved is...what amount?

    I ask, because thinking about the "general welfare" phrasing brings this to mind. It was only in the 20th century that expected human lifespan exceeded that of an African goldfish at about 50 years.

    “Promote the general welfare is a captivating phrase.”

    A phrase made famous by our Founding Fathers.

    “At what point do you think the lockdown is too high a price to pay? What rules do you use to judge? If the cost per year of life saved is…what amount?”

    From unz.com commenter Jus’ Sayin’:

    The overarching issue is that the USA and all other countries with free market economies are faced with a nightmarish and probably insoluble policy conundrum/dilemma. I use the word “insoluble” advisedly because we are currently operating in a “fog of war” situation. We lack the data needed to make a fully informed choice between two broad policy options, both of which carry potentially catastrophic risks. Yet we must make this choice now.

    On the one hand, if stringent public health measures are not put in place and the current pandemic is allowed to run its natural course, hundreds of millions may be sickened, tens of millions may die, and some as yet unknown portion of the survivors may have permanent, disabling damage to vital organs. The worse projections suggest that health care systems will be overwhelmed to the point that many millions will be denied life-saving care. In this case there will be permanent long-term damage to these systems that will require decades of rebuilding. Historically, uncontrolled pandemics have profound, long term social and cultural impacts that are difficult to gauge. Standing against this, bad pandemics clear much human deadwood, i.e., pensioners like myself, from the economy.

    Taking the opposite approach – the one I favored absolutely until I engaged with the more informed and rational commenters here and elsewhere – and imposing stringent public health measures lasting for many months will disrupt economies, which are already alarmingly fragile, to an extent comparable with the Great Depression. Tragically, those who would be most affected are already living on the edge of economic disaster. Much of the middle class would also suffer serious economic disruptions.

    The engines currently maintaining economies in the developed world are consumer expenditures and massive, overwhelming debt in all sectors and at every level of the economy. If stringent public health measures are enacted, those most affected, e.g., workers in the food service, entertainment, hospitality, and tourism, industries, will be left without even the meager financial resources they have now. Without government assistance they will lose housing, food, and hope. Meanwhile, these same people, a major segment of the consumer economy, will be unable to continue the consumption that currently helps maintains the economy of the USA and other countries. It is imperative that in a situation like this, these people receive help. Otherwise a catastrophic collapse of political, social, and economic systems is almost inevitable.

    Small businesses would be similarly impacted by stringent public health measures, as would even the largest corporations in industries like those mentioned above. The ultimate impact on the economy will be even greater.

    So if governments choose not to let the current pandemic run its course they would have to support those individuals and small businesses, who face economic and personal catastrophe absent government support. The continued spending on consumer goods by these individuals and businesses is vital to maintaining the economy. Governments would also have to support industries hardest hit by necessary public health measures. Without such support, the likely collapse of these industries would cause a ripple effects that would bring further catastrophe.

    Unfortunately, the devil is in the details. Governments that choose to impose strict public health measures to control the pandemic would need to provide subsidies to affected individuals, households, and businesses.

    I live in Massachusetts. If one uses Chinese experience in Wuhan to conservatively project a doubling of infections every five days and a case mortality rate of 2 per hundred in the absence of infection controls, then without prompt public health action, Massachusetts might experience projected infections and deaths like the ones in the table below.

    Date Infections Deaths
    15-Mar-20 164 3
    20-Mar-20 328 7
    25-Mar-20 656 13
    30-Mar-20 1,312 26
    4-Apr-20 2,624 52
    9-Apr-20 5,248 105
    14-Apr-20 10,496 210
    19-Apr-20 20,992 420
    24-Apr-20 41,984 840
    29-Apr-20 83,968 1,679
    4-May-20 167,936 3,359
    9-May-20 335,872 6,717
    14-May-20 671,744 13,435

    Of course, the further out projections are much too high. The curve of total infections in an epidemic take the shape of a logistic curve. At some point exponential growth ends and the rate of new infections flattens out; eventually ending as the epidemic burns itself out.

    But looking at these figures, one understands why Governor Baker decided to close schools, limit bars and restaurants to take out, and ban all public gatherings of 25 or more people. These measures may help prevent a foreseeable catastrophe.

    [AND NOW THE MONEY QUOTE***]

    ****Americans, and the developed world in general, have forgotten just how bad infectious disease epidemics can be and what difficult public health measures measures may be needed to curb them. As the projections above should suggest, now is a time for urgent public health measures to control what in their absence could become a catastrophe. Unfortunately, the populations of developed nations, the USA in particular, have become accustomed to the luxury of ignoring the dangers of infectious diseases and infectious disease epidemics****. Some of the inappropriate responses have been irrational outbreaks of panic on the one hand and a petulant anger at necessary prohibitions on the other. Just yesterday, I read that a wannabe Typhoid Mary, a man confirmed to have an active case of Covid-19, had to be physically restrained by police lest he go out into the community and spread the disease. A bar owner in Nashville, Tennessee, has ignored the mayor’s orders and turned his venue into a hot spot for Covid-19 infections.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    Americans, and the developed world in general, have forgotten just how bad infectious disease epidemics can be and what difficult public health measures measures may be needed to curb them. As the projections above should suggest, now is a time for urgent public health measures to control what in their absence could become a catastrophe.

    Since this is your "money quote" here: when would you qualify the economic depression that's onrushing as a result of a not-very-deadly infection as a catastrophe? Wealthy societies can pay for a lot of medical interventions for older folks. Poor ones put them out on ice floes. I'm worried about the ice floe.
  52. @Corvinus
    "Promote the general welfare is a captivating phrase."

    A phrase made famous by our Founding Fathers.

    "At what point do you think the lockdown is too high a price to pay? What rules do you use to judge? If the cost per year of life saved is…what amount?"

    From unz.com commenter Jus’ Sayin’:


    The overarching issue is that the USA and all other countries with free market economies are faced with a nightmarish and probably insoluble policy conundrum/dilemma. I use the word “insoluble” advisedly because we are currently operating in a “fog of war” situation. We lack the data needed to make a fully informed choice between two broad policy options, both of which carry potentially catastrophic risks. Yet we must make this choice now.

    On the one hand, if stringent public health measures are not put in place and the current pandemic is allowed to run its natural course, hundreds of millions may be sickened, tens of millions may die, and some as yet unknown portion of the survivors may have permanent, disabling damage to vital organs. The worse projections suggest that health care systems will be overwhelmed to the point that many millions will be denied life-saving care. In this case there will be permanent long-term damage to these systems that will require decades of rebuilding. Historically, uncontrolled pandemics have profound, long term social and cultural impacts that are difficult to gauge. Standing against this, bad pandemics clear much human deadwood, i.e., pensioners like myself, from the economy.

    Taking the opposite approach – the one I favored absolutely until I engaged with the more informed and rational commenters here and elsewhere – and imposing stringent public health measures lasting for many months will disrupt economies, which are already alarmingly fragile, to an extent comparable with the Great Depression. Tragically, those who would be most affected are already living on the edge of economic disaster. Much of the middle class would also suffer serious economic disruptions.

    The engines currently maintaining economies in the developed world are consumer expenditures and massive, overwhelming debt in all sectors and at every level of the economy. If stringent public health measures are enacted, those most affected, e.g., workers in the food service, entertainment, hospitality, and tourism, industries, will be left without even the meager financial resources they have now. Without government assistance they will lose housing, food, and hope. Meanwhile, these same people, a major segment of the consumer economy, will be unable to continue the consumption that currently helps maintains the economy of the USA and other countries. It is imperative that in a situation like this, these people receive help. Otherwise a catastrophic collapse of political, social, and economic systems is almost inevitable.

    Small businesses would be similarly impacted by stringent public health measures, as would even the largest corporations in industries like those mentioned above. The ultimate impact on the economy will be even greater.

    So if governments choose not to let the current pandemic run its course they would have to support those individuals and small businesses, who face economic and personal catastrophe absent government support. The continued spending on consumer goods by these individuals and businesses is vital to maintaining the economy. Governments would also have to support industries hardest hit by necessary public health measures. Without such support, the likely collapse of these industries would cause a ripple effects that would bring further catastrophe.

    Unfortunately, the devil is in the details. Governments that choose to impose strict public health measures to control the pandemic would need to provide subsidies to affected individuals, households, and businesses.



    I live in Massachusetts. If one uses Chinese experience in Wuhan to conservatively project a doubling of infections every five days and a case mortality rate of 2 per hundred in the absence of infection controls, then without prompt public health action, Massachusetts might experience projected infections and deaths like the ones in the table below.

    Date Infections Deaths
    15-Mar-20 164 3
    20-Mar-20 328 7
    25-Mar-20 656 13
    30-Mar-20 1,312 26
    4-Apr-20 2,624 52
    9-Apr-20 5,248 105
    14-Apr-20 10,496 210
    19-Apr-20 20,992 420
    24-Apr-20 41,984 840
    29-Apr-20 83,968 1,679
    4-May-20 167,936 3,359
    9-May-20 335,872 6,717
    14-May-20 671,744 13,435

    Of course, the further out projections are much too high. The curve of total infections in an epidemic take the shape of a logistic curve. At some point exponential growth ends and the rate of new infections flattens out; eventually ending as the epidemic burns itself out.

    But looking at these figures, one understands why Governor Baker decided to close schools, limit bars and restaurants to take out, and ban all public gatherings of 25 or more people. These measures may help prevent a foreseeable catastrophe.



    [AND NOW THE MONEY QUOTE***]

    ****Americans, and the developed world in general, have forgotten just how bad infectious disease epidemics can be and what difficult public health measures measures may be needed to curb them. As the projections above should suggest, now is a time for urgent public health measures to control what in their absence could become a catastrophe. Unfortunately, the populations of developed nations, the USA in particular, have become accustomed to the luxury of ignoring the dangers of infectious diseases and infectious disease epidemics****. Some of the inappropriate responses have been irrational outbreaks of panic on the one hand and a petulant anger at necessary prohibitions on the other. Just yesterday, I read that a wannabe Typhoid Mary, a man confirmed to have an active case of Covid-19, had to be physically restrained by police lest he go out into the community and spread the disease. A bar owner in Nashville, Tennessee, has ignored the mayor’s orders and turned his venue into a hot spot for Covid-19 infections.
     

    Americans, and the developed world in general, have forgotten just how bad infectious disease epidemics can be and what difficult public health measures measures may be needed to curb them. As the projections above should suggest, now is a time for urgent public health measures to control what in their absence could become a catastrophe.

    Since this is your “money quote” here: when would you qualify the economic depression that’s onrushing as a result of a not-very-deadly infection as a catastrophe? Wealthy societies can pay for a lot of medical interventions for older folks. Poor ones put them out on ice floes. I’m worried about the ice floe.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    "Since this is your “money quote” here: when would you qualify the economic depression that’s onrushing as a result of a not-very-deadly infection as a catastrophe?"

    Covid-19 is an infectious disease that, without stringent intervention and mitigation, would have similar catastrophic economic consequences.

    "Wealthy societies can pay for a lot of medical interventions for older folks."

    You do realize that those older folks have families who I would suspect believe in life being sacred. Moreover, it is in our DNA to help people in need. Our social contract with the government is based on the idea that if we are in need of protection and safety, then the resources we provide to said government will be used.

    Perhaps Covid-19 will also be the mechanism by which certain elements of our capitalistic system will die. Are you willing to DieForTheDow?

    Poor ones put them out on ice floes. I’m worried about the ice floe.
  53. @TomSchmidt
    Americans, and the developed world in general, have forgotten just how bad infectious disease epidemics can be and what difficult public health measures measures may be needed to curb them. As the projections above should suggest, now is a time for urgent public health measures to control what in their absence could become a catastrophe.

    Since this is your "money quote" here: when would you qualify the economic depression that's onrushing as a result of a not-very-deadly infection as a catastrophe? Wealthy societies can pay for a lot of medical interventions for older folks. Poor ones put them out on ice floes. I'm worried about the ice floe.

    “Since this is your “money quote” here: when would you qualify the economic depression that’s onrushing as a result of a not-very-deadly infection as a catastrophe?”

    Covid-19 is an infectious disease that, without stringent intervention and mitigation, would have similar catastrophic economic consequences.

    “Wealthy societies can pay for a lot of medical interventions for older folks.”

    You do realize that those older folks have families who I would suspect believe in life being sacred. Moreover, it is in our DNA to help people in need. Our social contract with the government is based on the idea that if we are in need of protection and safety, then the resources we provide to said government will be used.

    Perhaps Covid-19 will also be the mechanism by which certain elements of our capitalistic system will die. Are you willing to DieForTheDow?

    Poor ones put them out on ice floes. I’m worried about the ice floe.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    Btw, your inclusion of these words, so close to each other, is magnificent:
    "families who I would suspect believe in life being sacred. Moreover, it is in our DNA to help people in need. Our social contract ..."

    Life being sacred, DNA to help people in need (I think you mean kin selection by this comment, where behavior that decreases life expectancy for one individual increases it for his relatives, so promoting his genes). Then "the social contract," taken from a book written by a man who abandoned his six children, doing nothing to support his DNA or family.

    The intellectual chutzpah is breathtaking. I am in awe.
  54. Covid-19 is an infectious disease that, without stringent intervention and mitigation, would have similar catastrophic economic consequences.

    Well, we will have to check in with the Swedes about the economic consequences, and see if their economic collapse is similar to ours. You willing to admit you were wrong if they come out better off without stringent intervention, as you put it?

    I don’t recall stringent intervention for the pandemics in 1957 and 1968. You might expect, by what you have written, that there had been catastrophic consequences. How bad was it? 25% unemployment? Do tell.

    You do realize that those older folks have families who I would suspect believe in life being sacred.
    As do I. I wonder if those families would all take those older folks into a lockdown, away from potentially infected people? Maybe we as a society could have spent, I don’t know, 200 billion dollars protecting the over-65 crowd? Gotta be cheaper than a Depression.

    Perhaps Covid-19 will also be the mechanism by which certain elements of our capitalistic system will die. Are you willing to DieForTheDow?

    NIce cheap sloganeering there, Jean Jacques. But the first part is correct. I suspect the usury-based economic system, lurching from debt-based disaster to disaster, is not long for this world. They almost didn’t get their bailout in 2008 when people flooded Congress with demands not to pass it. They couldn’t take that chance this time, so they made sure plenty of people would demand the bailout.

    I think it’s ironic that you don’t see that the lockdown led to a demand for the bailout, and that means 4.5$trillion in loans backed by the Treasury and handed out through the Fed, going to that same crony capitalist system I think you (and I) deplore.

    The policies you continue to advocate for will lead to collapse. Rome went from over 1,000,000 people to about 20,000 at its low point in the Middle Ages. I guess I shouldn’t feel sorry for the people who won’t get born, but I do dread imagining what life picking through the scraps of a shattered NYC will be like 200 years hence for those who do get born. Maybe the great estuary will cleanse itself and the oysters and shad will return. There were 15,000 Lenape living in its borders before the Dutch.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    "Well, we will have to check in with the Swedes about the economic consequences, and see if their economic collapse is similar to ours..."

    Not comparable nations in terms of size and scope of economy. The jury is still out on the Swedes course of action when it comes to addressing Covid-19.

    "I don’t recall stringent intervention for the pandemics in 1957 and 1968."

    Different circumstances.

    "Maybe we as a society could have spent, I don’t know, 200 billion dollars protecting the over-65 crowd?"

    Covid-19 affects young and old.

    "I think it’s ironic that you don’t see that the lockdown led to a demand for the bailout, and that means 4.5$trillion in loans backed by the Treasury and handed out through the Fed, going to that same crony capitalist system I think you (and I) deplore."

    Then we need to hold those politicians accountable and demand a host of reforms, right?

    "The policies you continue to advocate for will lead to collapse."

    COULD or MAY lead to collapse. For some, that would be a GREAT thing. You know, shepherd through an amendment that bans corporate personhood, install term limits at the federal level, undercut the power of special interest groups, and hold Wall Street to the fire through legislation that has actual teeth and consequence. We can dream, right?

    "Then “the social contract,” taken from a book written by a man who abandoned his six children, doing nothing to support his DNA or family."

    I appreciate the red herring. Have any Grey Poupon?
  55. @Corvinus
    "Since this is your “money quote” here: when would you qualify the economic depression that’s onrushing as a result of a not-very-deadly infection as a catastrophe?"

    Covid-19 is an infectious disease that, without stringent intervention and mitigation, would have similar catastrophic economic consequences.

    "Wealthy societies can pay for a lot of medical interventions for older folks."

    You do realize that those older folks have families who I would suspect believe in life being sacred. Moreover, it is in our DNA to help people in need. Our social contract with the government is based on the idea that if we are in need of protection and safety, then the resources we provide to said government will be used.

    Perhaps Covid-19 will also be the mechanism by which certain elements of our capitalistic system will die. Are you willing to DieForTheDow?

    Poor ones put them out on ice floes. I’m worried about the ice floe.

    Btw, your inclusion of these words, so close to each other, is magnificent:
    “families who I would suspect believe in life being sacred. Moreover, it is in our DNA to help people in need. Our social contract …”

    Life being sacred, DNA to help people in need (I think you mean kin selection by this comment, where behavior that decreases life expectancy for one individual increases it for his relatives, so promoting his genes). Then “the social contract,” taken from a book written by a man who abandoned his six children, doing nothing to support his DNA or family.

    The intellectual chutzpah is breathtaking. I am in awe.

  56. @TomSchmidt
    Covid-19 is an infectious disease that, without stringent intervention and mitigation, would have similar catastrophic economic consequences.

    Well, we will have to check in with the Swedes about the economic consequences, and see if their economic collapse is similar to ours. You willing to admit you were wrong if they come out better off without stringent intervention, as you put it?

    I don't recall stringent intervention for the pandemics in 1957 and 1968. You might expect, by what you have written, that there had been catastrophic consequences. How bad was it? 25% unemployment? Do tell.

    You do realize that those older folks have families who I would suspect believe in life being sacred.
    As do I. I wonder if those families would all take those older folks into a lockdown, away from potentially infected people? Maybe we as a society could have spent, I don't know, 200 billion dollars protecting the over-65 crowd? Gotta be cheaper than a Depression.

    Perhaps Covid-19 will also be the mechanism by which certain elements of our capitalistic system will die. Are you willing to DieForTheDow?

    NIce cheap sloganeering there, Jean Jacques. But the first part is correct. I suspect the usury-based economic system, lurching from debt-based disaster to disaster, is not long for this world. They almost didn't get their bailout in 2008 when people flooded Congress with demands not to pass it. They couldn't take that chance this time, so they made sure plenty of people would demand the bailout.

    I think it's ironic that you don't see that the lockdown led to a demand for the bailout, and that means 4.5$trillion in loans backed by the Treasury and handed out through the Fed, going to that same crony capitalist system I think you (and I) deplore.

    The policies you continue to advocate for will lead to collapse. Rome went from over 1,000,000 people to about 20,000 at its low point in the Middle Ages. I guess I shouldn't feel sorry for the people who won't get born, but I do dread imagining what life picking through the scraps of a shattered NYC will be like 200 years hence for those who do get born. Maybe the great estuary will cleanse itself and the oysters and shad will return. There were 15,000 Lenape living in its borders before the Dutch.

    “Well, we will have to check in with the Swedes about the economic consequences, and see if their economic collapse is similar to ours…”

    Not comparable nations in terms of size and scope of economy. The jury is still out on the Swedes course of action when it comes to addressing Covid-19.

    “I don’t recall stringent intervention for the pandemics in 1957 and 1968.”

    Different circumstances.

    “Maybe we as a society could have spent, I don’t know, 200 billion dollars protecting the over-65 crowd?”

    Covid-19 affects young and old.

    “I think it’s ironic that you don’t see that the lockdown led to a demand for the bailout, and that means 4.5$trillion in loans backed by the Treasury and handed out through the Fed, going to that same crony capitalist system I think you (and I) deplore.”

    Then we need to hold those politicians accountable and demand a host of reforms, right?

    “The policies you continue to advocate for will lead to collapse.”

    COULD or MAY lead to collapse. For some, that would be a GREAT thing. You know, shepherd through an amendment that bans corporate personhood, install term limits at the federal level, undercut the power of special interest groups, and hold Wall Street to the fire through legislation that has actual teeth and consequence. We can dream, right?

    “Then “the social contract,” taken from a book written by a man who abandoned his six children, doing nothing to support his DNA or family.”

    I appreciate the red herring. Have any Grey Poupon?

  57. “Not comparable nations in terms of size and scope of economy. The jury is still out on the Swedes course of action when it comes to addressing Covid-19.”

    Yep. The last time the world went crazy and the Swedes didn’t was over 75 years ago. They made quite a bit selling to Nazis. Been sort of apologizing since. “We will see” is shorter than writing “the jury is still out,.” I’m glad you’ll fairly consider their verdict.

    “Different circumstances.” indeed. No massive indebted financial sector jamming its blood funnel Down the throat of anything that smells like money, needing a bailout. Which the panic response you support gave them the cover to obtain. Probably more deaths from those two absolutely and definitely in citizens dying/ million.

    “Covid-19 affects young and old.”
    Equally? Or is there a difference we might exploit?

    “Then we need to hold those politicians accountable and demand a host of reforms, right?”
    They’ve got trillions. Gonna be-a fight. I’ll vote against bailers out of Wall Street for the rest of my life. You, too?

    Of course, just like banks can create moneywithout depositors, politicians can remain in power without worrying about voters:
    https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/mgilens/files/gilens_and_page_2014_-testing_theories_of_american_politics.doc.pdf

    So it makes things harder. If only there were a way to keep more money out of the DC honeypot, so it wouldn’t attract so many flies.

    “We can dream, right?” My dream is they’ve pushed things too far and shown the end of the usury- based financialized crony capitalist system. That leads to the Jubilee, after which no one will care what DC does. How do you feel about the jubilee and debt cancellation?

    Lastly, I like the idea of watching what people DO, not what they say. Like with Rousseau. How do you prefer to evaluate people?

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