RSS
Here’s a website recommended by Mickey Kaus for tracking the remaining battleground states:
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html
The website lists all updates to vote counts over the last 48+ hours, but I’ve cut it down to the latest two:
All data below is sourced from an unofficial API powering the New York Times’ election site. The estimated votes remaining values might be off. Consult state websites and officials for the most accurate and up-to-date figures. This website is open source and was written by these people.
Last scrape: 13 minutes ago | Last batch: 16 minutes ago
In short, if recent vote count trends continue, Alaska is in the bag for Trump.
In Arizona he has a fighting chance, although he might come up just short.
Georgia looks like Biden will win at the very last moment. But what about military votes? I suspect Georgia has more than few voters serving overseas. On the other hand, what about this crazy-sounding “vote curing” scheme in Georgia?
I don’t know what is going on in North Carolina. They’ve only counted about 4,000 votes over the last 24 hours and they claim they happen to be 50.00% for Biden and 50.00% for Trump. Yeah, sure …
Trump has a fighting chance in Nevada, but the assumption seems to be they are going to be some dubious Las Vegas votes.
And Trump appears doomed in Pennsylvania, unless some GOP wise man in the hinterlands has been holding back votes on a massive scale.
English
Arabic
Chinese (Simplified)
Dutch
French
German
Hebrew
Hindi
Italian
Japanese
Korean
Persian
Polish
Portuguese
Russian
Spanish
Swedish
Turkish
Vietnamese
665 vote differential in Georgia with Biden winning more than two-thirds and 7,658 to go. He’ll be in the lead within the next two dumps.
Even when a decade ago i backed Obama over McStain & later Mormon Mitt i knew Obama couldn't throw Georgia despite it being "The Black Mecca of America"....
My friend actually worked with the Georgia state GOP & would tease me when i would tell him "Pat Buchanan was right.....demographics mean Georgia goes blue....."
Anyway he pointed out "it was eventual....but still 30 years out...."
.....& crazy Uncle Joe is doing what Obama could not do? Nonsense of the highest order....
What am i saying? I'm saying some functionaries in the state Democrat Party magically found exactly the right amount of ballots for Biden?
Somebody in Georgia is throwing this election......
The next update of voting totals in GA should put Biden in the lead, and that’ll pretty much do it for the presidential race.
By the way, it looks like they’re going to take Pennsylvania and Georgia.
That could end it.
Quite a lot of states flipped there by Biden. Tight enough election that Trump could put himself forward as the 2024 candidate and be the first non-consecutive winner since Grover Cleveland. He has turned the GOP into a multi-racial party of the working class.
I keep reading stuff like this. A party doesn’t fundamentally change just because educated/wealthy people have stopped voting for it and (some) poor Hispanics, who for all I know voted for Trump because they’re pro wrestling fans, started.
The Heritage Foundation is still there, Cato and AEI are still there, National Review, Koch etc. Changing the party for real will take a massive organizational and ideological effort. I’m not optimistic.
One of the consequences of this election is the need to retire the now quant phrase “turnout”.
In the era of ballot “harvesting” during elections, it’s now “turn in” that matters, not “turnout”.
As in, which party is more effective at “turning in” the most ballots, including ballots that were filled in by political party operatives for the person (alive, incapacitated, or temporarily resurrected) who allegedly cast them.
Ballot “harvesting” is corrupt, but the Ds will slander anyone who objects to it as engaging in “voter suppression”. It works for the Ds, so expect it to become their standard operating procedure in all future elections.
Once GA and PA have flipped, both likely tomorrow, The Narrative can take a sharp turn into the inevitability of the shiny new Democratic administration. AZ and NV will cease to matter.
NC is weird. Almost nothing has changed since Tuesday evening in their vote totals. I read that they have some deadline next week by which mail-ins have to be received, and they’ll only start counting them then. So who knows whether the votes remaining total of 190K will stay steady or not?
In GA, the ‘votes remaining’ had dropped to about 175K at 11:00 pm on the night of November 4, and then suddenly ramped back up to 300K an hour or so later. So where did those 125K votes come from?
And then at 8:00 pm on November 5 the remaining votes in GA had dropped to 25K, and then again within an hour the total was back up to 50K, as another 25K ‘remaining votes’ were suddenly transportered in from Planet Fakeballot.
So even though Trump — and Thom Tillis — look pretty safe in NC, don’t bet on it. If more ‘remaining votes’ are needed, well, there’s always room for more.
And don’t worry if adding absurd numbers of votes to a state’s total makes it looks as if an impossible percentage of that state’s population voted in this election. Wisconsin’s USA-record 90% voting participation rate this year just shows how ready America is to roll out the red carpet for Slow Joe and Fast Kammy.
Don’t know about the 50/50, but here’s my understanding of North Carolina (of which i’m only ~75% confident): They are done counting everything they have. However there are 100k+ mail-in ballots that were sent out to voters that haven’t come back yet. Technically they can come back until the 12th (?) as long as they were postmarked by election day. (this per 538 and/or NYT)
My assumption is that those ballots won’t come back at all… it’s just people who requested ballots and then either voted in person or just didn’t vote at all. The chances that a bunch of ballots are stuck in the mail system somewhere is virtually nil.
(also, thanks for the post/link. It’s a nice tool)
Unfortunately, 2020 is the year of statistical wonders.
At this point I wouldn't put it past Dem operatives to manufacture the missing ballots. Who controls the NC system?
Thanks. If this is right, then it’s essentially impossible for Trump and Tillis to lose.
Unfortunately, 2020 is the year of statistical wonders.
I think the Republican establishment is willing to throw the president under the bus at this point, as long as they keep the senate majority.
And then they wonder why they lose to the Left on every issue, every time...Replies: @Aardvark
OT, sorry I’m always OT,
this study of height gap between nations might interest you.
Biden now has a less than 1000 vote lead in Georgia.
More interestingly is an increasingly unlikely situation where Trump wins Arizona and the closeness of the result in Georgia stalls the results of the election even further to the point that faith in the whole process goes out the window. But it seems like Trump’s momentum in Arizona has stalled for now and he’s back on a losing track.
Does anyone know why Alaska is taking so long to count it’s votes? (Other than the fact that nobody much cares if they don’t)
this study of height gap between nations might interest you.Replies: @Steve Sailer
Height research is never off topic on my blog!
Obviously since then immigration has brought more poverty and children with parents with more recent history of poor diet but when the population was almost entirely stable the two stopped at the same time.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/11/landmark-study-resolves-major-mystery-how-genes-govern-human-height
Sample size 4.1 million people.
Sorry for my late answer, I was rather busy.
Guess you will not lack Istevey subjects now !
GA has a lot of bases but many of the deployed people are surely registered elsewhere. I was stationed in TX in 2008 and got an absentee ballot from MI where I was registered to vote. I didn’t end up returning it because I didn’t care enough to buy a stamp for it. One had to pay for the postage then, and nothing on the ballot was worth paying 40 cents to me when my vote would have been swamped by millions of other votes. My understanding now is that absentee ballots in Michigan are all return-postage-paid now. I wonder if this is true in all states. Never underestimate how many people are willing to vote as long as they don’t have to make any effort for it.
Btw how many troops does the US govt have deployed, Steve? I assume you keep an eye on these things.
Watching vote counts at this point is kind of like arranging deckchairs on the Titanic.
By the way, it looks like they're going to take Pennsylvania and Georgia.
That could end it.Replies: @AndrewR
Barring impenetrable legal arguments by the Trump campaign, I wouldn’t count on a single judge in any state to rule for Trump. He’s too toxic.
since Trump appointed 3 cucks instead of 3 hardRight Constitutionalists (cf. Justice Thomas),
the ultimate vote will be 5-4 Biden (Roberts doing his usual, + 1 of the 3 Trumpcucks...probably by drawing straws).
I agree, but all will seek plausible deniability. The establishment detests Trump to the core but they do have to consider how Trump’s low-IQ supporters perceive things.
Here’s a world map of the results: http://www.ncdrisc.org/height-mean-map.html
Y-axis is height, X-axis is educational achievement/IQ.
Tropical Storm Eta, the other Election Day surprise.
Watch her take it off here in the latest.
Oh and here’s an estimate of potential height of different ethnic groups from polygenic scores: https://twitter.com/DavidePiffer/status/1100449466199490565
Y-axis is height, X-axis is educational achievement/IQ.
“The chances that a bunch of ballots are stuck in the mail system somewhere is virtually nil.”
At this point I wouldn’t put it past Dem operatives to manufacture the missing ballots. Who controls the NC system?
Of course, all of this could have been avoided by states being more consistent.
The first would be that all states should be in-hand states instead of postmark states. Making the hourly operations of the USPS part of the voting process is a huge point of failure.
Second, all state would be able to start processing mailed ballots before election day. Penn has laws that nothing could be done with mailed ballots until election day. So all of the staff that would normally be dealing with mailed ballots is trying to run the in person voting. The first results reported should the 90% of mailed ballots received before election day instead of those being the last results.
Third, all states should have uniform reporting practices. Some states do not never post the aggregated number but instead depend upon each county to post the results. Not having uniform reporting practices caused the media to have to create a new system for each election to cobble together the unofficial results. States seem to think that only the official results reported much later matter but decisions such as starting the transition depend upon the unofficial results.
The US comes in above China for male height, but is below for female. What’s going on there?
Republicans, as usual, showing great teamwork, commitment to allies and values, faithfulness and perseverance.
And then they wonder why they lose to the Left on every issue, every time…
Republicans could not be happy with having the Presidency simply from the party perspective; Trump was't their bitch so they stabbed him all along the way. Sometimes it is wonder to me that he made it through all four years.
Denmark’s generational height increases ceased at the same time it’s Flynn effect stopped in the early 90s.
Obviously since then immigration has brought more poverty and children with parents with more recent history of poor diet but when the population was almost entirely stable the two stopped at the same time.
Don’t the election results in these states have to be overturned? Doesn’t a new election have to be called?
If this cheating is allowed uncontested, then there is no point to vote anymore.
Doesn’t something HAVE to be done? This isn’t something that can just be accepted and ignored.
New Elections before January 1st need to be called in these swing states, using the laws in place in Florida and Ohio.
That’s what needs to happen. Why isn’t this happening?
This is just logic. You can’t have these election results stand without invalidating every future election.
In consultation with federal prosecutors at the Public Integrity Section in Washington, D.C., the District Election Officers in U.S. Attorney’s Offices, FBI officials at headquarters in Washington, D.C., and FBI special agents serving as Election Crime Coordinators in the FBI’s 56 field offices will be on duty while polls are open to receive complaints from the public.
Election-crime complaints should be directed to the local U.S. Attorney’s Offices or the local FBI office. A list of U.S. Attorney’s Offices and their telephone numbers can be found at http://www.justice.gov/usao/districts/. A list of FBI offices and accompanying telephone numbers can be found at www.fbi.gov/contact-us.
Public Integrity Section prosecutors are available to consult and coordinate with the U.S. Attorney’s Offices and the FBI regarding the handling of election-crime allegations.
The New York State criminal investigation will go into overdrive on 1/21/21.
Georgia, as a Southern state, and a high population one, has many of its own citizens deployed worldwide.
Ive been a political junkie since the 1992 election when i was 8 years old & I’ve read up obsessively about Southern politics in particular.
Even when a decade ago i backed Obama over McStain & later Mormon Mitt i knew Obama couldn’t throw Georgia despite it being “The Black Mecca of America”….
My friend actually worked with the Georgia state GOP & would tease me when i would tell him “Pat Buchanan was right…..demographics mean Georgia goes blue…..”
Anyway he pointed out “it was eventual….but still 30 years out….”
…..& crazy Uncle Joe is doing what Obama could not do? Nonsense of the highest order….
What am i saying? I’m saying some functionaries in the state Democrat Party magically found exactly the right amount of ballots for Biden?
Somebody in Georgia is throwing this election……
He has turned the GOP into a multi-racial party of the working class.
I keep reading stuff like this. A party doesn’t fundamentally change just because educated/wealthy people have stopped voting for it and (some) poor Hispanics, who for all I know voted for Trump because they’re pro wrestling fans, started.
The Heritage Foundation is still there, Cato and AEI are still there, National Review, Koch etc. Changing the party for real will take a massive organizational and ideological effort. I’m not optimistic.
And then they wonder why they lose to the Left on every issue, every time...Replies: @Aardvark
The Left rarely eats their own, no matter how egregious the actions of a Democrat may be.
Republicans could not be happy with having the Presidency simply from the party perspective; Trump was’t their bitch so they stabbed him all along the way. Sometimes it is wonder to me that he made it through all four years.
One of the reasons for riots and civil war in Republican Rome was the fact that minorities felt disenfranchised for being asked to vote later. Often, by midday, the result would be so solidly in favor of some party, that the afternoon votes felt like a mere exercise in obedience.
In Trump’s America, Trumpists voted in such huge numbers on 11/3, that the trickle of postal ballots is unlikely to change anything. Wait, it’s the other around.
How come the order came to matter? To me, totals are the only important data; partial counts are for people with too much time on their hands. Why would anybody bother counting everything, if the partial counts and the final counts would be significantly similar?
You all need to refresh that course on grievance studies. You will be needing it badly. World War Hair being superseded by World War “I had better counts yesterday”. If only the Israel-Sudan-UAE-Saudi axis would have held…
that’s why much of this will wind up in the 6-3 Republican SC. But,
since Trump appointed 3 cucks instead of 3 hardRight Constitutionalists (cf. Justice Thomas),
the ultimate vote will be 5-4 Biden (Roberts doing his usual, + 1 of the 3 Trumpcucks…probably by drawing straws).
Less dimorphism among East Asians.
The first would be that all states should be in-hand states instead of postmark states. Making the hourly operations of the USPS part of the voting process is a huge point of failure.
Second, all state would be able to start processing mailed ballots before election day. Penn has laws that nothing could be done with mailed ballots until election day. So all of the staff that would normally be dealing with mailed ballots is trying to run the in person voting. The first results reported should the 90% of mailed ballots received before election day instead of those being the last results.
Third, all states should have uniform reporting practices. Some states do not never post the aggregated number but instead depend upon each county to post the results. Not having uniform reporting practices caused the media to have to create a new system for each election to cobble together the unofficial results. States seem to think that only the official results reported much later matter but decisions such as starting the transition depend upon the unofficial results.Replies: @Abolish_public_education, @AZ Reader
More government.
Per Attorney General William Barr ( https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-releases-information-election-day-efforts-protect-right-vote-and-prosecu-1 )
In consultation with federal prosecutors at the Public Integrity Section in Washington, D.C., the District Election Officers in U.S. Attorney’s Offices, FBI officials at headquarters in Washington, D.C., and FBI special agents serving as Election Crime Coordinators in the FBI’s 56 field offices will be on duty while polls are open to receive complaints from the public.
Election-crime complaints should be directed to the local U.S. Attorney’s Offices or the local FBI office. A list of U.S. Attorney’s Offices and their telephone numbers can be found at http://www.justice.gov/usao/districts/. A list of FBI offices and accompanying telephone numbers can be found at http://www.fbi.gov/contact-us.
Public Integrity Section prosecutors are available to consult and coordinate with the U.S. Attorney’s Offices and the FBI regarding the handling of election-crime allegations.
Here is a refreshing map site, if only because the Tories are blue and the commies red, as they should be:
Dave Leip’s Atlas of U. S. Presidential Elections
Dave Leip's Atlas of U. S. Presidential Elections
https://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/pe2016.pngReplies: @Dieter Kief
I agree. It looked fine right away.
The GOP nabobs will be scurrying back to Globohomo as fast as their six little legs can carry them.
In that case…
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/11/landmark-study-resolves-major-mystery-how-genes-govern-human-height
Sample size 4.1 million people.
The first would be that all states should be in-hand states instead of postmark states. Making the hourly operations of the USPS part of the voting process is a huge point of failure.
Second, all state would be able to start processing mailed ballots before election day. Penn has laws that nothing could be done with mailed ballots until election day. So all of the staff that would normally be dealing with mailed ballots is trying to run the in person voting. The first results reported should the 90% of mailed ballots received before election day instead of those being the last results.
Third, all states should have uniform reporting practices. Some states do not never post the aggregated number but instead depend upon each county to post the results. Not having uniform reporting practices caused the media to have to create a new system for each election to cobble together the unofficial results. States seem to think that only the official results reported much later matter but decisions such as starting the transition depend upon the unofficial results.Replies: @Abolish_public_education, @AZ Reader
I agree on all points. Some of these states have a ridiculous setup for absentee ballots. Hopefully their constituents push for reforms after the mess of this election.
President and Mrs. Trump changed their official residence to Florida … so just how will NY State have jurisdiction over him?
“how Trump’s low-IQ supporters perceive things.” what of his high IQ supporters?
Based on acts allegedly committed in New York. Do you think they couldn’t find anything, however tenuous, and within the statute of limitations, after going through with a fine toothed comb the business affairs of a businessman with holdings as diverse as his, which he did not put into a blind trust upon assuming office or even later? Three felonies a day, a prosecutor can indict a ham sandwich, and all of that.
There won’t be another Trump but Cruz, Hawley, and others will push many of the same themes in a more restrained way. Jeb Bush and others like him will have greatly reduced influence. Jeb might be crazy enough to give it a shot in ’24; he won’t get the nomination. Trump, both winner and loser, changed the terms of dialogue in a way similar to Goldwater, loser, and Reagan, winner.
I do, but trust me, if you can handle understanding human nature as well as I do, I have so so much respect for you, and if you can't, well, let's just say Patton respected every G.I. in a way you cannot understand).and by the way, fancy boy Reagan was a loser.
He did nothing to prevent the nasty Bushes from being in a position to take over and lead us into endless wars and into crazy situations where scumbags like Obama could win an election ....
he nominated Scalia, a wimp, and his other nominations were much much worse ----compared to what Dutch could have done, what he did was next to nothing. He had millions of people hoping he would do better, but he was an elderly gent without a lot of testosterone, and I don't care how much you admire him, he was a girly man when the rubber hit the runway.Replies: @anonymous as usual
I hope that you’re right. We shall see.
in-hand, and early processing would be exactly the same government as their is now. However, the voting results would be much faster. How is every state having crazed systems considered one man, one vote.
995 of constituents have no idea if a state is in-hand or postmark. Look at how the states have different standards for military ballots. That makes no sense.
Thanks Steve !
Sorry for my late answer, I was rather busy.
Guess you will not lack Istevey subjects now !
You don’t really understand human Nature.
Trump himself has a lot of life left in him, and what is coming next is going to be to Trump what the Beatles were to the little 50s pop stars that John Lennon, bless his nasty little heart, had on his juke box,
(by the way, don’t feel bad, nobody around here, from Unz on down, understands human nature.
I do, but trust me, if you can handle understanding human nature as well as I do, I have so so much respect for you, and if you can’t, well, let’s just say Patton respected every G.I. in a way you cannot understand).
and by the way, fancy boy Reagan was a loser.
He did nothing to prevent the nasty Bushes from being in a position to take over and lead us into endless wars and into crazy situations where scumbags like Obama could win an election ….
he nominated Scalia, a wimp, and his other nominations were much much worse —-
compared to what Dutch could have done, what he did was next to nothing. He had millions of people hoping he would do better, but he was an elderly gent without a lot of testosterone, and I don’t care how much you admire him, he was a girly man when the rubber hit the runway.
I know what I am talking about.
I do, but trust me, if you can handle understanding human nature as well as I do, I have so so much respect for you, and if you can't, well, let's just say Patton respected every G.I. in a way you cannot understand).and by the way, fancy boy Reagan was a loser.
He did nothing to prevent the nasty Bushes from being in a position to take over and lead us into endless wars and into crazy situations where scumbags like Obama could win an election ....
he nominated Scalia, a wimp, and his other nominations were much much worse ----compared to what Dutch could have done, what he did was next to nothing. He had millions of people hoping he would do better, but he was an elderly gent without a lot of testosterone, and I don't care how much you admire him, he was a girly man when the rubber hit the runway.Replies: @anonymous as usual
In case you are interested, you might like to know this:
I know what I am talking about.