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From The Guardian:

Why have four children when you could have seven? Family planning in Niger

With the world’s highest birthrate, Niger’s population is set to double in 17 years. NGOs are providing contraception, but what if women want more babies?

Jill Filipovic

Wednesday 15 March 2017 11.21 EDT Last modified on Friday 23 June 2017 13.24 EDT

Roukaya Hamani has an in-law problem. Her husband’s parents want more grandbabies, but she doesn’t want any more children right now. She’s already given birth four times; one of the babies died, and so now she has three, ages seven, five, and 16 months. She’s 18 years old.

“I just pray to God to bless those three babies I have,” she says. The local health centre in her village of Darey Maliki offered her free contraception, which they get partly from the NGO Pathfinder, but Hamani declined. “Maybe [my in-laws] would tell my husband to marry another woman to have more babies,” she says. “If they want me to have another pregnancy, I can do it just for them to feel happy.”

… More than half of girls don’t complete primary school, and fewer than one in 10 attend secondary school – as a result, less than a quarter of women here are literate. Women have an average of more than seven children apiece, the highest in the world. And they face a one-in-23 chance of dying from pregnancy or childbirth.

But Hamani is unusual in that three babies are enough for her. Despite having the highest fertility rate in the world, women and men alike in Niger say they want more children than they actually have – women want an average of nine, while men say they want 11.

Birth rates as high as Niger’s contribute to rapid population growth. The country’s population exploded from 3.5 million people in 1960 to nearly 20 million today, with half of the current population under the age of 15.

It long seemed like the rest of the world could safely ignore Niger because it was a lightly populated backwater. But the UN’s 2017 forecasts figure its population will hit 64 million by 2050 and 192 million by 2100, which means that the world will be flooded with surplus Nigeriens if efforts aren’t increased.

The overwhelming majority – 80% of Nigeriens – live in poverty. The landlocked nation is largely desert, less than 20% of the land is arable, and that number is shrinking due to climate change. At current growth rates, the population is set to double in 17 years. This, experts say, drives poverty, famine, political instability, and violence.

And immigration.

To combat the health issues that come with high birth rates as well as the burden many young and out-of-work people place on a fragile economy and vulnerable security situation, the Nigerien government has turned to the solution: modern contraception. What they haven’t figured out, though, is how to get women to use it.

“This is a time bomb, because all the Sahel is in this situation, and especially with climate change, the food supply will be less abundant than before,” says John May, a visiting scholar at the Population Reference Bureau. “It’s a huge crisis.” …

Many working in development say that to prevent a series of catastrophes – environmental, economic, security – women in Niger need to have smaller families. But unless women want their families to be smaller, there’s no reason to think the fertility rate will decrease anytime soon.

It’s important to understand a point emphasized by John Reader in his book Africa: Biography of a Continent. Africans were traditionally not up against a Malthusian ceiling caused by a shortage of land per capita for growing food. In other parts of the world, people were in danger of starving at the end of a long winter, but in Africa death tended to come from tropical diseases, such as falciparum malaria and sleeping sickness, often carried by flying insects. There wasn’t a lot you could do to protect your family from the main causes of death, so the main strategy was to have a bigger family.

Also, humans in Africa were in more serious competition for food and land with native beasts, such as hungry, hungry hippos and giant elephants, a herd of whom could consume a small village’s crops in a day. Humans and wildlife had co-evolved in Africa, so they were wise to our tricks. We couldn’t get the drop on them and wipe them out like we did in the New World. So it helped to have more people to scare off the animals.

Finally, women did most of the agricultural work, so influential men didn’t see much downside in fathering more children.

So, African cultures evolved to seem to the rest of the world kind of sex-obsessed. In the temperate world, up near Malthusian limits, reproduction was a fraught decision. So we have a lot of culture and literature devoted to people obsessing over making the right romantic choice at the right time.

But in Africa making as many babies as possible was the only obvious way to survive.

Now, it’s hardly impossible for Africans to change their culture, the way most other countries have changed culturally to prevent population from soaring endlessly into disaster. But it’s going to take a big effort on the part of Africans and non-African elites to get the world out of the jam threatened by African fertility. Most of all, it’s going to take honesty, which is rare and expensive these days.

 
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  1. We are under absolutely no obligation to provide these people with the food, medicine, and developmental aid required to allow them to keep exponentially expanding their population, nor are we required to provide their refugees sanctuary in our own lands. They will not willingly use birth control (and I hardly blame them for that), so for God’s sake just please let Dr. Malthus do his work. It is the only solution.

    • Agree: RonaldB
    • Replies: @MBlanc46
    Yep, no obligation whatever to bail them out. But our elites will force us to try, resulting in our economies crashing.
    , @Neoconned
    His girl is 18 but has 7yr old son?

    So she had her first kid at age 11?
  2. And immigration.

    I think you mean emigration — people leaving Niger.

    the world out of the jam

    I guarantee you Chinese “elites” do not see “African fertility” as their problem — and if Nice White People do, there’s already a description for that: pathological altruism.

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief

    I guarantee you Chinese “elites” do not see “African fertility” as their problem — and if Nice White People do, there’s already a description for that: pathological altruism
     
    cf. Baizuo - the Chinese term for the laughably nice (=blue-eyed) Merkel -left***.

    *** they coudn't care less about Merkel's self description as "conservative".
  3. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Also, humans in Africa were in more serious competition for food and land with native beasts, such as hungry, hungry hippos and giant elephants, a herd of whom could consume a small village’s crops in a day. Humans and wildlife had co-evolved in Africa, so they were wise to our tricks. We couldn’t get the drop on them and wipe them out like we did in the New World. So it helped to have more people to scare off the animals.

    There are elephants in India and Southeast Asia, and they haven’t hindered farming there. They’ve also domesticated the elephants there and used them for different tasks. I don’t think elephant competition explains African culture. It seems more like the reverse. You need men to tame large animals, and in African culture, men don’t work. The women work and farm, and thus elephants are competition.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    You need men to tame large animals, and in African culture, men don’t work. The women work and farm, and thus elephants are competition.
     
    Perhaps if a certain political party changed its mascot to a sloth, they might attract more black voters.
  4. Forgive me if I had a hard time getting past the end of that first paragraph.

    It seems that getting women to use contraception might be too little, too late.

    How about getting men to stop impregnating 11 year old girls?

    • Replies: @Benjamin I. Espen
    Haha, yes, this is a big factor. I looked up average age of marriage for Niger, and I didn't find firm numbers, but I did find a report from the UN Population Fund that claimed the legal age of marriage in Niger was 15.

    From the linked story, it looks like even enforcing the existing law would make quite a difference in the birth rate. I suspect no one in Niger knows or cares what civil law says about the age of marriage, so this is likely to be a tough sell. But probably not any harder than contraceptive use!

    All else being equal, later marriage will tend to mean fewer kids, so this is a useful angle to pursue as well.
  5. It just seems to me that Westerners presuming to lecture Africans on reproduction is like the dodo bird giving the cockroach advice on how to survive. Eventually, unless and until something extreme happens we’ll be overwhelmed by whatever ethno-cultural groups place the most emphasis on fertility.

    • Agree: Kevin C.
  6. Any idea which entities were most responsible for the decrease in mortality rates? Bono? Geldof? Edward Jenner?

  7. @Anonymous

    Also, humans in Africa were in more serious competition for food and land with native beasts, such as hungry, hungry hippos and giant elephants, a herd of whom could consume a small village’s crops in a day. Humans and wildlife had co-evolved in Africa, so they were wise to our tricks. We couldn’t get the drop on them and wipe them out like we did in the New World. So it helped to have more people to scare off the animals.
     
    There are elephants in India and Southeast Asia, and they haven't hindered farming there. They've also domesticated the elephants there and used them for different tasks. I don't think elephant competition explains African culture. It seems more like the reverse. You need men to tame large animals, and in African culture, men don't work. The women work and farm, and thus elephants are competition.

    You need men to tame large animals, and in African culture, men don’t work. The women work and farm, and thus elephants are competition.

    Perhaps if a certain political party changed its mascot to a sloth, they might attract more black voters.

  8. Are there any credible projections for emigration from Africa?

    • Replies: @Darth Dharmakīrti
    I project African emigration to Europe will drop to zero, once we start escalating our military response to the invasion.

    All it takes for this problem to go away is enough whites to remove the invaders (and the traitors who threw open the gates) on the one hand, and control of the strategic nuclear arsenal on the other.
    , @Anonymous
    The World's Zeroeth Most Important Graph

    http://i.imgur.com/gFv2D8R.png
  9. Observe that climate change is being fingered as a culprit, rather than, say, unsustainable farming practices or overuse of existing water supply.

  10. Between 37 and 41% of the people in Africa are Christians. – The number of Catholics almost trippled since 1980 – which is still looked upon as a great success.

    The once useful** Biblical Imperative – Be fruitful and multiply! – needs a correction**.

    ** see Steve Sailer above.

    • Replies: @AM

    Between 37 and 41% of the people in Africa are Christians. – The number of Catholics almost trippled since 1980 – which is still looked upon as a great success.
     
    Catholicism also says be responsible with the number of children you have, one man/one woman only for marriage and God will judge you, too on your efforts in child rearing. There isn't have children to make your in-laws happy or God, actually.

    The only thing Catholicism says you might disagree with is that contraception is immoral. And by any standard Africans as group do not use contraceptives correctly, if they use them at all, and that includes the US/West where they were invented. Catholicism, which can teach women how to not have sex when they're fertile and give them a personal, concrete reason why not to have endless children, might have the home court advantage here.

    Since by your estimates a good 59% of Africans are not Christians, how's throwing free condoms at them and wagging your fingers about food supplies going? Approaching Africa's problems like a white secular liberal doesn't seem like a winning strategy.
    , @Tracy

    The once useful** Biblical Imperative – Be fruitful and multiply! – needs a correction**.
     
    Catholics don't see "be fruitful and multiply" as an imperative; they see it as a blessing.
  11. Niger alone could ruin Europe.

  12. My right-wing friends tell me we have lots of room in America still, so a billion or two more Africans really shouldn’t be a problem. Population control is evil, they insist.

    Funny how when right- and left-wing people agree on something, it’s usually wrong. Often, as here, disastrously wrong.

    • Replies: @TTSSYF
    I'm right-wing and am surrounded by right-wing family and friends. I don't know of a single one who thinks that a billion or two more Africans wouldn't be a problem or that population control is evil. Quite the opposite.
  13. @Reginald Maplethorp
    Are there any credible projections for emigration from Africa?

    I project African emigration to Europe will drop to zero, once we start escalating our military response to the invasion.

    All it takes for this problem to go away is enough whites to remove the invaders (and the traitors who threw open the gates) on the one hand, and control of the strategic nuclear arsenal on the other.

    • Replies: @Kyle McKenna
    IOW, it's never going to happen.

    May we all live in interesting times.
    , @Hippopotamusdrome


    I project African emigration to Europe will drop to zero, once we start escalating our military response to the invasion.

     

    So you project African emigration to Europe will never drop to zero?
    , @Kevin C.

    I project African emigration to Europe will drop to zero, once we start escalating our military response to the invasion.
     
    Who is "we" here? Because the group of people who see this as an invasion, who would be willing to countenance responding militarily, and the group of people actually able issue orders to the militaries that would be responding appear to be completely not-overlapping set. The "traitors who threw open the gates" are absolutely, totally and unshakeably in charge, and it's what they say that goes.
  14. Google “Bangladesh birthrate”

    It can be done. Reproducing that graph in Africa should be the highest priority in the world.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Thanks. I'll riff on this.
  15. @Darth Dharmakīrti
    I project African emigration to Europe will drop to zero, once we start escalating our military response to the invasion.

    All it takes for this problem to go away is enough whites to remove the invaders (and the traitors who threw open the gates) on the one hand, and control of the strategic nuclear arsenal on the other.

    IOW, it’s never going to happen.

    May we all live in interesting times.

    • Replies: @Darth Dharmakīrti
    Never say never. Yes, the situation is dire, and yes, the sleepy Saxon may never wake up. (Sweden does indeed appear to be finished).

    But a lot of this is speculative, based on projections and estimates. Obviously we need to take these seriously--if we didn't take them seriously, we wouldn't be writing and commenting here--but, as Steve keeps pointing out, a lot is going to happen between now and 2100. Even if the Saxon never wakes up, I bet the Teuton and/or the Frank will; and even if all three fall, the Rus may yet prove to be the savior of the white race.
  16. @eah
    And immigration.

    I think you mean emigration -- people leaving Niger.

    the world out of the jam

    I guarantee you Chinese "elites" do not see "African fertility" as their problem -- and if Nice White People do, there's already a description for that: pathological altruism.

    I guarantee you Chinese “elites” do not see “African fertility” as their problem — and if Nice White People do, there’s already a description for that: pathological altruism

    cf. Baizuo – the Chinese term for the laughably nice (=blue-eyed) Merkel -left***.

    *** they coudn’t care less about Merkel’s self description as “conservative”.

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    It's interesting that the Urban Dictionary definition of Baizuo is actually better then the Wikipedia one, which sounds as if it was written by someone whose first language isn't English.

    "It firstly emerged from the Chinese social networks and embodies a far-right, fascistic, and racist ideology. Soon, the word was inscribed on the urban dictionary and received a considerable amount of attention."
     
  17. @Reginald Maplethorp
    Are there any credible projections for emigration from Africa?

    The World’s Zeroeth Most Important Graph

  18. @Dieter Kief

    I guarantee you Chinese “elites” do not see “African fertility” as their problem — and if Nice White People do, there’s already a description for that: pathological altruism
     
    cf. Baizuo - the Chinese term for the laughably nice (=blue-eyed) Merkel -left***.

    *** they coudn't care less about Merkel's self description as "conservative".

    It’s interesting that the Urban Dictionary definition of Baizuo is actually better then the Wikipedia one, which sounds as if it was written by someone whose first language isn’t English.

    “It firstly emerged from the Chinese social networks and embodies a far-right, fascistic, and racist ideology. Soon, the word was inscribed on the urban dictionary and received a considerable amount of attention.”

  19. @oddsbodkins
    Google "Bangladesh birthrate"

    It can be done. Reproducing that graph in Africa should be the highest priority in the world.

    Thanks. I’ll riff on this.

  20. @Kyle McKenna
    My right-wing friends tell me we have lots of room in America still, so a billion or two more Africans really shouldn't be a problem. Population control is evil, they insist.

    Funny how when right- and left-wing people agree on something, it's usually wrong. Often, as here, disastrously wrong.

    I’m right-wing and am surrounded by right-wing family and friends. I don’t know of a single one who thinks that a billion or two more Africans wouldn’t be a problem or that population control is evil. Quite the opposite.

    • Replies: @AM

    I don’t know of a single one who thinks that a billion or two more Africans wouldn’t be a problem or that population control is evil.
     
    I'm a right wing Catholic. Same here. My objection is that the mindset that people are "bad" have spilled over into white nations and has infected the overall culture badly.

    To me the solution is to encourage as many children as one man and one woman committed to each other could reasonably support in the near future. That's probably more than the average Western believes but it's also probably a lot less than the 11 the women of Niger want, where I could easily see the number of children being a form of wealth and achievement for the average woman.
    , @Kyle McKenna
    Well, my hat's off to ya, sorta. Look up right-wingers and family planning at your leisure, though. Planned Parenthood and foreign aid, for example.
  21. @Kyle McKenna
    IOW, it's never going to happen.

    May we all live in interesting times.

    Never say never. Yes, the situation is dire, and yes, the sleepy Saxon may never wake up. (Sweden does indeed appear to be finished).

    But a lot of this is speculative, based on projections and estimates. Obviously we need to take these seriously–if we didn’t take them seriously, we wouldn’t be writing and commenting here–but, as Steve keeps pointing out, a lot is going to happen between now and 2100. Even if the Saxon never wakes up, I bet the Teuton and/or the Frank will; and even if all three fall, the Rus may yet prove to be the savior of the white race.

    • Replies: @Kyle McKenna
    Honestly, I'm counting on Russia.

    Hungary, Poland--sort of, for now, but they're small countries.

    The rest of the world seems well and truly f/ed.
    , @Kevin C.

    Even if the Saxon never wakes up, I bet the Teuton and/or the Frank will; and even if all three fall, the Rus may yet prove to be the savior of the white race.
     
    Except it's looking a lot like "the Saxon, the Teuton, and the Frank" want to team up to destroy the Rus well before that day can come. What if the Western Establisment does succeed in their goal of taking down Putin and bringing Russia into line with the Progressive "consensus"?
  22. So there is no way a mostly deserted country in the third world can sustain 200 million people in 2100, a Malthusian catastrophe is waiting there but not before sending zillions of people to the West

  23. “Humans and wildlife had co-evolved in Africa, so they were wise to our tricks. We couldn’t get the drop on them and wipe them out like we did in the New World.”

    Where there’s a will, there’s a way. Homo Sapiens is totally capable of wiping out any species of megafauna as history shows. Maybe Africans weren’t good at hunting without firearms?

  24. “Let Africa Sink”

    http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/924795/posts

    Just shut the door on the place, don’t let ’em out. The rest of the world already has more than enough Africans.

    • Replies: @Olorin
    That's a bit like saying in November 1347, "Close the port of Messina, we already have enough R. rattus and X. cheopis."
    , @Hippopotamusdrome


    Just shut the door on the place, don’t let ‘em out.

     

    United Federation of Planets Indigenous Terran Preservation Area. Prime Directive strictly enforced.
  25. AM says:
    @Dieter Kief
    Between 37 and 41% of the people in Africa are Christians. - The number of Catholics almost trippled since 1980 - which is still looked upon as a great success.

    The once useful** Biblical Imperative - Be fruitful and multiply! - needs a correction**.


    ** see Steve Sailer above.

    Between 37 and 41% of the people in Africa are Christians. – The number of Catholics almost trippled since 1980 – which is still looked upon as a great success.

    Catholicism also says be responsible with the number of children you have, one man/one woman only for marriage and God will judge you, too on your efforts in child rearing. There isn’t have children to make your in-laws happy or God, actually.

    The only thing Catholicism says you might disagree with is that contraception is immoral. And by any standard Africans as group do not use contraceptives correctly, if they use them at all, and that includes the US/West where they were invented. Catholicism, which can teach women how to not have sex when they’re fertile and give them a personal, concrete reason why not to have endless children, might have the home court advantage here.

    Since by your estimates a good 59% of Africans are not Christians, how’s throwing free condoms at them and wagging your fingers about food supplies going? Approaching Africa’s problems like a white secular liberal doesn’t seem like a winning strategy.

    • Agree: Benjamin I. Espen
    • Replies: @Dieter Kief

    Approaching Africa’s problems like a white secular liberal doesn’t seem like a winning strategy.
     
    I'm a Lutheran, if that counts. And, as I said: The Family Planning Program of the EU and Geramany and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation in Africa is working well.
  26. AM says:
    @TTSSYF
    I'm right-wing and am surrounded by right-wing family and friends. I don't know of a single one who thinks that a billion or two more Africans wouldn't be a problem or that population control is evil. Quite the opposite.

    I don’t know of a single one who thinks that a billion or two more Africans wouldn’t be a problem or that population control is evil.

    I’m a right wing Catholic. Same here. My objection is that the mindset that people are “bad” have spilled over into white nations and has infected the overall culture badly.

    To me the solution is to encourage as many children as one man and one woman committed to each other could reasonably support in the near future. That’s probably more than the average Western believes but it’s also probably a lot less than the 11 the women of Niger want, where I could easily see the number of children being a form of wealth and achievement for the average woman.

  27. “a Malthusian ceiling”

    Alternatively, because of the West’s constant asset stripping, during colonial times through taxation without representation to the present Goldman Sachs giant blood sucking squid odious debt, the only investment traditionally available to Africans has been children, preferably sent to the West either through slavery or migration.

    Any attempt at capital formation was destroyed through taxation or militarization, for example, the civil war in Syria propelled by Western and Gulf interests has destroyed generations of real estate and other capital. And Libya. And Afghanistan. And Somalia.

    • Replies: @AM

    only investment traditionally available to Africans has been children, preferably sent to the West either through slavery or migration.
     
    In watching poor blacks in the US, it is entirely unclear if most African societies can handle highly abstract forms of money. I guess I've volunteered to the taxes for one too many poor blacks.

    The ever increasing complexity of income taxes is frustrating. Every law added is like an IQ point increase that makes people dependent on professionals or software.
  28. @PJ
    "Let Africa Sink"

    http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/924795/posts

    Just shut the door on the place, don't let 'em out. The rest of the world already has more than enough Africans.

    That’s a bit like saying in November 1347, “Close the port of Messina, we already have enough R. rattus and X. cheopis.”

  29. @Intelligent Dasein
    We are under absolutely no obligation to provide these people with the food, medicine, and developmental aid required to allow them to keep exponentially expanding their population, nor are we required to provide their refugees sanctuary in our own lands. They will not willingly use birth control (and I hardly blame them for that), so for God's sake just please let Dr. Malthus do his work. It is the only solution.

    Yep, no obligation whatever to bail them out. But our elites will force us to try, resulting in our economies crashing.

  30. @O'Really
    Forgive me if I had a hard time getting past the end of that first paragraph.

    It seems that getting women to use contraception might be too little, too late.

    How about getting men to stop impregnating 11 year old girls?

    Haha, yes, this is a big factor. I looked up average age of marriage for Niger, and I didn’t find firm numbers, but I did find a report from the UN Population Fund that claimed the legal age of marriage in Niger was 15.

    From the linked story, it looks like even enforcing the existing law would make quite a difference in the birth rate. I suspect no one in Niger knows or cares what civil law says about the age of marriage, so this is likely to be a tough sell. But probably not any harder than contraceptive use!

    All else being equal, later marriage will tend to mean fewer kids, so this is a useful angle to pursue as well.

  31. @Darth Dharmakīrti
    I project African emigration to Europe will drop to zero, once we start escalating our military response to the invasion.

    All it takes for this problem to go away is enough whites to remove the invaders (and the traitors who threw open the gates) on the one hand, and control of the strategic nuclear arsenal on the other.

    I project African emigration to Europe will drop to zero, once we start escalating our military response to the invasion.

    So you project African emigration to Europe will never drop to zero?

  32. @PJ
    "Let Africa Sink"

    http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/924795/posts

    Just shut the door on the place, don't let 'em out. The rest of the world already has more than enough Africans.

    Just shut the door on the place, don’t let ‘em out.

    United Federation of Planets Indigenous Terran Preservation Area. Prime Directive strictly enforced.

  33. ‘Most of all, it’s going to take honesty, which is rare and expensive these days.’
    The honesty that is required is the honesty of leaving these people to their own devices.
    Let Nature take its course.

  34. @Intelligent Dasein
    We are under absolutely no obligation to provide these people with the food, medicine, and developmental aid required to allow them to keep exponentially expanding their population, nor are we required to provide their refugees sanctuary in our own lands. They will not willingly use birth control (and I hardly blame them for that), so for God's sake just please let Dr. Malthus do his work. It is the only solution.

    His girl is 18 but has 7yr old son?

    So she had her first kid at age 11?

  35. AM says:
    @george
    "a Malthusian ceiling"

    Alternatively, because of the West's constant asset stripping, during colonial times through taxation without representation to the present Goldman Sachs giant blood sucking squid odious debt, the only investment traditionally available to Africans has been children, preferably sent to the West either through slavery or migration.

    Any attempt at capital formation was destroyed through taxation or militarization, for example, the civil war in Syria propelled by Western and Gulf interests has destroyed generations of real estate and other capital. And Libya. And Afghanistan. And Somalia.

    only investment traditionally available to Africans has been children, preferably sent to the West either through slavery or migration.

    In watching poor blacks in the US, it is entirely unclear if most African societies can handle highly abstract forms of money. I guess I’ve volunteered to the taxes for one too many poor blacks.

    The ever increasing complexity of income taxes is frustrating. Every law added is like an IQ point increase that makes people dependent on professionals or software.

  36. Cut off all aid, immediately.

    Let ol’ Malthus handle this problem.

  37. It’s important to understand a point emphasized by John Reader in his book Africa: Biography of a Continent. Africans were traditionally not up against a Malthusian ceiling caused by a shortage of land per capita for growing food. In other parts of the world, people were in danger of starving at the end of a long winter, but in Africa death tended to come from tropical diseases, such as falciparum malaria and sleeping sickness, often carried by flying insects. There wasn’t a lot you could do to protect your family from the main causes of death, so the main strategy was to have a bigger family.

    And then you have Black Americans, whose fertility is considerably below replacement.

    Fertility rates are indeed quite sensitive to environmental context.

    • Replies: @Kyle McKenna

    Black Americans, whose fertility is considerably below replacement.
     
    AAs in 1970: 22 million
    AAs in 2015: 46 million

    https://www.infoplease.com/us/race-population/african-american-population
    https://www.census.gov/newsroom/facts-for-features/2017/cb17-ff01.html
    http://blackdemographics.com/population/

    Wow, I'd hate to think what would happen if they had a high birthrate!
  38. @TTSSYF
    I'm right-wing and am surrounded by right-wing family and friends. I don't know of a single one who thinks that a billion or two more Africans wouldn't be a problem or that population control is evil. Quite the opposite.

    Well, my hat’s off to ya, sorta. Look up right-wingers and family planning at your leisure, though. Planned Parenthood and foreign aid, for example.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Look up right-wingers and family planning at your leisure, though. Planned Parenthood and foreign aid, for example.
     
    There is no reason for Americans to pay for somebody else's "family planning", unless it's it is us who will do that planning. That is know as "imperialism".

    This runs into the paradox of all other foreign aid: the only ones who will make good use of it are the ones who don't really need it.
  39. @JayMan

    It’s important to understand a point emphasized by John Reader in his book Africa: Biography of a Continent. Africans were traditionally not up against a Malthusian ceiling caused by a shortage of land per capita for growing food. In other parts of the world, people were in danger of starving at the end of a long winter, but in Africa death tended to come from tropical diseases, such as falciparum malaria and sleeping sickness, often carried by flying insects. There wasn’t a lot you could do to protect your family from the main causes of death, so the main strategy was to have a bigger family.
     
    And then you have Black Americans, whose fertility is considerably below replacement.

    Fertility rates are indeed quite sensitive to environmental context.

    Black Americans, whose fertility is considerably below replacement.

    AAs in 1970: 22 million
    AAs in 2015: 46 million

    https://www.infoplease.com/us/race-population/african-american-population
    https://www.census.gov/newsroom/facts-for-features/2017/cb17-ff01.html
    http://blackdemographics.com/population/

    Wow, I’d hate to think what would happen if they had a high birthrate!

  40. @Darth Dharmakīrti
    Never say never. Yes, the situation is dire, and yes, the sleepy Saxon may never wake up. (Sweden does indeed appear to be finished).

    But a lot of this is speculative, based on projections and estimates. Obviously we need to take these seriously--if we didn't take them seriously, we wouldn't be writing and commenting here--but, as Steve keeps pointing out, a lot is going to happen between now and 2100. Even if the Saxon never wakes up, I bet the Teuton and/or the Frank will; and even if all three fall, the Rus may yet prove to be the savior of the white race.

    Honestly, I’m counting on Russia.

    Hungary, Poland–sort of, for now, but they’re small countries.

    The rest of the world seems well and truly f/ed.

  41. @Darth Dharmakīrti
    I project African emigration to Europe will drop to zero, once we start escalating our military response to the invasion.

    All it takes for this problem to go away is enough whites to remove the invaders (and the traitors who threw open the gates) on the one hand, and control of the strategic nuclear arsenal on the other.

    I project African emigration to Europe will drop to zero, once we start escalating our military response to the invasion.

    Who is “we” here? Because the group of people who see this as an invasion, who would be willing to countenance responding militarily, and the group of people actually able issue orders to the militaries that would be responding appear to be completely not-overlapping set. The “traitors who threw open the gates” are absolutely, totally and unshakeably in charge, and it’s what they say that goes.

    • Agree: Kyle McKenna
  42. @Darth Dharmakīrti
    Never say never. Yes, the situation is dire, and yes, the sleepy Saxon may never wake up. (Sweden does indeed appear to be finished).

    But a lot of this is speculative, based on projections and estimates. Obviously we need to take these seriously--if we didn't take them seriously, we wouldn't be writing and commenting here--but, as Steve keeps pointing out, a lot is going to happen between now and 2100. Even if the Saxon never wakes up, I bet the Teuton and/or the Frank will; and even if all three fall, the Rus may yet prove to be the savior of the white race.

    Even if the Saxon never wakes up, I bet the Teuton and/or the Frank will; and even if all three fall, the Rus may yet prove to be the savior of the white race.

    Except it’s looking a lot like “the Saxon, the Teuton, and the Frank” want to team up to destroy the Rus well before that day can come. What if the Western Establisment does succeed in their goal of taking down Putin and bringing Russia into line with the Progressive “consensus”?

  43. @Kyle McKenna
    Well, my hat's off to ya, sorta. Look up right-wingers and family planning at your leisure, though. Planned Parenthood and foreign aid, for example.

    Look up right-wingers and family planning at your leisure, though. Planned Parenthood and foreign aid, for example.

    There is no reason for Americans to pay for somebody else’s “family planning”, unless it’s it is us who will do that planning. That is know as “imperialism”.

    This runs into the paradox of all other foreign aid: the only ones who will make good use of it are the ones who don’t really need it.

    • Replies: @Kyle McKenna
    Indeed. There's that even more famous paradox of foreign aid, which is that it involves taking money from poor people in rich countries and giving it to rich people in poor countries.
  44. @Reg Cæsar

    Look up right-wingers and family planning at your leisure, though. Planned Parenthood and foreign aid, for example.
     
    There is no reason for Americans to pay for somebody else's "family planning", unless it's it is us who will do that planning. That is know as "imperialism".

    This runs into the paradox of all other foreign aid: the only ones who will make good use of it are the ones who don't really need it.

    Indeed. There’s that even more famous paradox of foreign aid, which is that it involves taking money from poor people in rich countries and giving it to rich people in poor countries.

  45. @Dieter Kief
    Between 37 and 41% of the people in Africa are Christians. - The number of Catholics almost trippled since 1980 - which is still looked upon as a great success.

    The once useful** Biblical Imperative - Be fruitful and multiply! - needs a correction**.


    ** see Steve Sailer above.

    The once useful** Biblical Imperative – Be fruitful and multiply! – needs a correction**.

    Catholics don’t see “be fruitful and multiply” as an imperative; they see it as a blessing.

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief

    Catholics don’t see “be fruitful and multiply” as an imperative; they see it as a blessing.
     
    Agreed upon. Even though - not all of them do. Lots of African Catholics don't, and Melinda Gates, as an American Catholic - as she said quite often and very clearly, - doesn't either.
  46. @Tracy

    The once useful** Biblical Imperative – Be fruitful and multiply! – needs a correction**.
     
    Catholics don't see "be fruitful and multiply" as an imperative; they see it as a blessing.

    Catholics don’t see “be fruitful and multiply” as an imperative; they see it as a blessing.

    Agreed upon. Even though – not all of them do. Lots of African Catholics don’t, and Melinda Gates, as an American Catholic – as she said quite often and very clearly, – doesn’t either.

  47. @AM

    Between 37 and 41% of the people in Africa are Christians. – The number of Catholics almost trippled since 1980 – which is still looked upon as a great success.
     
    Catholicism also says be responsible with the number of children you have, one man/one woman only for marriage and God will judge you, too on your efforts in child rearing. There isn't have children to make your in-laws happy or God, actually.

    The only thing Catholicism says you might disagree with is that contraception is immoral. And by any standard Africans as group do not use contraceptives correctly, if they use them at all, and that includes the US/West where they were invented. Catholicism, which can teach women how to not have sex when they're fertile and give them a personal, concrete reason why not to have endless children, might have the home court advantage here.

    Since by your estimates a good 59% of Africans are not Christians, how's throwing free condoms at them and wagging your fingers about food supplies going? Approaching Africa's problems like a white secular liberal doesn't seem like a winning strategy.

    Approaching Africa’s problems like a white secular liberal doesn’t seem like a winning strategy.

    I’m a Lutheran, if that counts. And, as I said: The Family Planning Program of the EU and Geramany and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation in Africa is working well.

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