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From Samstack:

Autism and Forecasting

Sam Atis
Jul 4

Note: If you haven’t heard of forecasting, I would recommend at least skimming the Superforecaster Wikipedia page to get a brief overview of what I’m talking about before diving in.

Being an excellent forecaster is correlated with certain traits (and certain demographic variables). The main paper that digs into this topic seems to just talk about stuff that’s fairly obvious to people who have some experience with forecasting or have already read Superforecasting. One famous example is that forecasters do better on the Cognitive Reflection Test [by Daniel Kahneman], which asks questions like ‘A bat and a ball cost \$1.10 in total. The bat costs \$1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?’, with the correct answer being 5 cents rather than 10 cents, which is the answer that most people give. Unsurprisingly, political knowledge and active open-mindedness (essentially, the willingness to listen to evidence that contradicts your views) also predict forecasting ability, as do traits like deliberation time and frequency of updating beliefs.

I also have the impression, although I can’t substantiate it with survey evidence, that excellent forecasters are disproportionately autistic. I’ve done a very brief review of the literature, and I don’t think there’s any research showing that forecasters are more likely to be (high-functioning) autistics. I also emailed Phil Tetlock just to double check if I had missed anything, and he replied that he isn’t aware of any work on the correlation between autism and forecasting ability. I think it’s fairly safe to say that there isn’t much rigorous evidence for the correlation that I believe exists. But having spoken to quite a few excellent forecasters, I’ve definitely come away with the impression that many of them have traits that resemble those of people who are autistic, and others have explicitly mentioned that they have been diagnosed with autism.

It’s a big problem that the word “autism” has come to be used for both high IQ human robot-types and low IQ individuals whom we used to call “retarded.” For a while, we had the term Asperger’s Syndrome to refer to the former, but then Herr Asperger got canceled for being a Nazi, so now we are back to using autism for a vast range of capabilities.

If my impression is right, why might this be the case? To some extent, it might not exactly be that there’s anything that links forecasting specifically to being autistic, but rather that forecasting is just the type of hobby that attracts autistic people. A fair number of forecasters that I’ve met are competent programmers, and programmers are also disproportionately autistic. Forecasters are almost certainly disproportionately male, and men are more likely to be autistic than women. So, we would sort of expect forecasters to be more autistic than the wider population just as a function of forecasters being more male, and because being a competent programmer lends itself quite well to being good at forecasting.

But I think there might also be reasons to think that forecasters being disproportionately autistic isn’t only a result of demographic variables, it might be that autistic people have traits that actually make them better forecasters. Even though there isn’t (as far as I’m aware) any research showing a direct correlation between forecasting ability and autism, we can see that some traits that are correlated with forecasting ability are also correlated with being autistic.

The dual-process account of reasoning, which was made famous by Daniel Kahneman’s book Thinking Fast and Slow, is the idea that humans have two systems for thinking about the world. System 1 makes use of shortcuts and is fairly automatic, whereas System 2 is much more intentional (and probably accurate), but requires more resources. The Dual-process theory of Autism proposes that people with autism rely more on System 2 than on System 1, and deliberate more when trying to answer a question than do neurotypical people. Lewton et al. (2018) carried out two studies looking at the relationship between being autstic and deliberative processing, and found that autistic people do better at the Cognitive Reflection Test discussed earlier. As already mentioned, doing well at the CRT is positively correlated with forecasting ability, so if both findings are legit, it makes sense that autistic people might be better at forecasting. …

There are other papers that lend credence to the assertion that autistic people are likely to make better forecasters. Morsanyi et al. (2010) show that autistic adolescents are less susceptible to the conjunction fallacy, a common flaw in human probabilistic reasoning. Testing for the conjunction fallacy works like this – you give people a description of a woman called Linda, who is described as ‘a philosophy major, concerned with discrimination and social justice, and a participant in antinuclear demonstrations’, and then you ask people if it is more likely that ‘Linda is a bank teller’, or that ‘Linda is a bank teller who is active in the feminist movement’. If someone takes the view that the second is more likely, they have committed the conjunction fallacy, as if it is the case that Linda is a bank teller and a feminist, it must be the case that Linda is a bank teller, so it can’t be more likely that she is both a bank teller and a feminist than being just a bank teller. If autistic people are better at this sort of probabilistic reasoning, we should also probably assume that they’ll be better at the sort of probabilistic reasoning that is so important in forecasting.

Autists get Kahneman’s famous “Linda is a bank teller” word problem right more often than normal people do because they haven’t internalized the concept of Chekhov’s Gun: if the author is giving you seemingly extraneous details, it’s for a good reason.

“If you say in the first chapter that there is a rifle hanging on the wall, in the second or third chapter it absolutely must go off. If it’s not going to be fired, it shouldn’t be hanging there.”

Chekhov was the epitome of the non-autist, the supremely mentally healthy product of eons of the evolution of the human mind.

The one year time frame in Tetlock’s questions gives autists a big advantage. A Superforecaster pointed out to me about 8 years ago that a big part of his status came from him not being bored with frequently looking up the latest details of the Spratly Island dispute between China and the Philippines.

Normies tend to assume that if their attention is being drawn to the Spratly Islands, that’s because, as Chekhov’s Gun would explain, something exciting is about to happen there. Otherwise, why would our attention be drawn to the Spratly Islands?

But, year after year, nothing very exciting has happened at the Spratly Islands.

Eventually, something huge might happen at the Spratly Islands, but Tetlock’s forecasting survey gives each year equal weight so even if you are right in the long run that World War III will break out at the Spratly Islands, you won’t get to be a Superforecaster until the Earth is a smoking cinder.

But autists like details for the sake of details so they are good at monitoring the details without getting overly excited into assuming that something must be going to happen real soon now or Chekhov wouldn’t have directed my attention toward the Spratly Islands.

I’m carrying on my August fundraiser. Here are ten ways for you to contribute:

First: Most banks now allow fee-free money transfers via Zelle.

Zelle is really a good system: easy to use and the fees are nonexistent.

If you have a Wells Fargo bank account, you can transfer money to me (with no fees) via Wells Fargo SurePay/Zelle. Just tell WF SurePay/Zelle to send the money to my ancient AOL email address steveslrAT aol.com — replace the AT with the usual @). (Non-tax deductible.) Please note, there is no 2.9% fee like with Paypal or Google Wallet, so this is good for large contributions.

Zelle contributions are not tax deductible.

Second: if you have a Chase bank account (or even other bank accounts), you can transfer money to me (with no fees) via Chase QuickPay/Zelle (FAQ). Just tell Chase QuickPay/Zelle to send the money to my ancient AOL email address (steveslrATaol.com — replace the AT with the usual @). If Chase asks for the name on my account, it’s StevenSailer with an n at the end of Steven. (Non-tax deductible.) There is no 2.9% fee like with Paypal or Google Wallet, so this is also good for large contributions.

Third, Zelle might work with other banks too. Here’s a Zelle link for CitiBank. And Bank of America.

Fourth: You can use Paypal (non-tax deductible) by going to the page on my old blog here. Paypal accepts most credit cards. Contributions can be either one-time only, monthly, or annual. (Monthly is nice.)

Fifth: You can mail a non-tax deductible donation to:

Steve Sailer
P.O Box 4142
Valley Village, CA 91617

I have no idea why somebody carefully hung this empty picture frame from a tree alongside the Fryman Canyon hiking trail, but I appreciate it, like I appreciate your support.

Sixth: You can make a tax deductible contribution via VDARE by clicking here.

Please don’t forget to click my name at the VDARE site so the money goes to me: first, click on “Earmark your donation,” then click on “Steve Sailer:”

This is not to say that you shouldn’t click on John’s fund too, but, please, make sure there’s a blue dot next to my name.

VDARE has been kiboshed from use of Paypal for being, I dunno, EVIL. But you can give via credit cards, Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin, check, money order, or stock.

Note: the VDARE site goes up and down on its own schedule, so if this link stops working, please let me know.

Seventh: send money via the Paypal-like Google Wallet to my Gmail address (that’s isteveslrATgmail .com — replace the AT with a @). (Non-tax deductible.)

Eight: You can send me Bitcoin. Bitcoin payments are not tax deductible.

Here’s my Bitcoin address:

1EkuvRNR86uJzpopquxdnmF23iA3vzdDuc

Here’s the OCR

Please let me know if this works, ideally by sending me Bitcoin. Or let me know what else you’d like to send me.

If you’re sending to a crypto address that belongs to another Coinbase user who has opted into Instant sends in their privacy settings, you can send your funds instantly to them with no transaction fees. This transaction will not be sent on chain, and is similar to sending to an email address.

Learn more about sending and receiving crypto.

Send off-chain funds

Mobile

  1. Tap at the bottom
  2. Tap Send
  3. Tap your selected asset and enter the amount of crypto you’d like to send
  4. Enter the Receiver’s crypto address or scan their crypto QR code to see if the address belongs to a Coinbase user

Computer

  1. Sign into Coinbase.com

  2. Click Send at the top right

  3. Click your selected asset and enter the amount of crypto you’d like to send

  4. Enter the Receiver’s crypto address or scan their crypto QR code to see if the address belongs to a Coinbase user

Obsolete: Below are links to two Coinbase pages of mine. But these don’t work anymore. I will try to fix them. This first is if you want to enter a U.S. dollar-denominated amount to pay me.

Pay With Bitcoin (denominated in U.S. Dollars)

This second is if you want to enter a Bitcoin-denominated amount. (Remember one Bitcoin is currently worth many U.S. dollars.)

Pay With Bitcoin (denominated in Bitcoins)

Ninth: I added Square [which is now Block] as a fundraising medium, although I’m vague on how it works. If you want to use Square, send me an email telling me how much to send you an invoice for. Or, if you know an easier way for us to use Square, please let me know.

Tenth: Venmo: https://account.venmo.com/u/SteveSailer

 
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  1. ‘A bat and a ball cost \$1.10 in total. The bat costs \$1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?’, with the correct answer being 5 cents rather than 10 cents”.

    Could someone explain it to this cognitively challenged commenter?

    • LOL: AnotherDad
    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    @J

    You can lead a whore to culture, but you can’t make her think.

    , @J.Ross
    @J

    The bat doesn't cost $1.00, it costs $1.00 more. In order for it to cost $1.00 more, the prices must encompass eachother. $1.00 is not one dollar more than $.10. $1.05 is one dollar more than $.05. Thus the bat costs $1.05 and the ball is $.05, totalling $1.10, with a difference of a dollar.

    , @Jack D
    @J

    The bat costs $1.05 and the balls costs $.05 so added together they cost $1.10 and the bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. If the ball costs $.10 and the total is $1.10, the bat costs $1.00 and the difference is only $.90 so that's the wrong answer.

    If you can't reach this result with simple logic, it's easy to solve algebraically. Let's do it in pennies so you don't have to deal with decimals:

    X + Y = 110
    X = Y + 100

    substituting

    Y + 100 +Y = 110
    2Y = 10
    Y = 5, X= 105

    Replies: @clifford brown, @J

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @J

    Relax. You aren't being nickel-and-dimed.

    $1.05 is a dollar more than $0.05. Now add the two.

    , @espantoon
    @J

    I appreciate Jack D's reply to J. However I must admit that it's all gibberish to me since elementary math 65 years ago. I have consistently scored at the top of verbal IQ or verbal intelligence, but the average Sub-Saharan goat herder would best me in math. People say that it's because I had bad teachers. Or maybe I'm just math dumb.

    Replies: @fnn, @Anon, @Dr. Doomngloom

    , @Anonymous
    @J

    Pay attention to the part where it says "in total". Skipping over that, or not thinking it through, is how you get the common answer instead of the correct answer.

    , @Anonymous
    @J

    It's one of the prototypical algebra "word problems" that puts most people off of math after middle school. Another classic of the genre is about 1 train leaving east from Chicago at X o'clock at A miles per hour, another leaving west from New York at Y o'clock at B miles per hour, what time do they meet? etc.

    , @ThreeCranes
    @J

    Let cost of bat be B.

    Let cost of ball be b.

    equation (1). B + b = 1.10

    equation (2). b + 1.00 = B

    rearrange 2nd equation by substracting B from both sides

    (2). b + 1.00 - B = B - B

    (2). b + 1.00 - B = 0

    rearrange by subtracting 1.00 from both sides

    (2). b - B = -1.00

    Now add (1) and (2)

    (B + b) + (b - B) = 1.10 - 1.00

    2b = 0.10

    b = 0.05

    So, substituting into either equation

    (1). B + b = 1.10

    B + 0.05 = 1.10

    B = 1.10 - 0.05

    B = 1.05

  2. ‘A bat and a ball cost \$1.10 in total. The bat costs \$1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?’, with the correct answer being 5 cents rather than 10 cents”

    Someone pls. explain it to stupid me.

    • Replies: @Maciano
    @J

    1) a = b + 1
    2) y = a + b & y = 1,10
    3) 1,10 = (b+1) + b
    4) 2b = 0,10 => b = 0,05 => a = 0,05 + 1 = 1,05

  3. @J

    ‘A bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?’, with the correct answer being 5 cents rather than 10 cents".

     

    Could someone explain it to this cognitively challenged commenter?

    Replies: @The Alarmist, @J.Ross, @Jack D, @Reg Cæsar, @espantoon, @Anonymous, @Anonymous, @ThreeCranes

    You can lead a whore to culture, but you can’t make her think.

  4. OT not a fan (after she got big she went straight [straight?] untrammeled globohomo); but this is the best 70s imagery in a music video. This is a triumph. Normally it’s easy to ignore What’s Happening in pop music, but this was a rare case where I should’ve listened.

    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican
    @J.Ross


    This is a triumph. Normally it’s easy to ignore What’s Happening in pop music, but this was a rare case where I should’ve listened.
     
    Hate to bust anyone’s balls (who am I kidding?) but you need to read this:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-decline-of-capitalization/#comment-5351988 (#7)
  5. @J

    ‘A bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?’, with the correct answer being 5 cents rather than 10 cents".

     

    Could someone explain it to this cognitively challenged commenter?

    Replies: @The Alarmist, @J.Ross, @Jack D, @Reg Cæsar, @espantoon, @Anonymous, @Anonymous, @ThreeCranes

    The bat doesn’t cost \$1.00, it costs \$1.00 more. In order for it to cost \$1.00 more, the prices must encompass eachother. \$1.00 is not one dollar more than \$.10. \$1.05 is one dollar more than \$.05. Thus the bat costs \$1.05 and the ball is \$.05, totalling \$1.10, with a difference of a dollar.

  6. @J

    ‘A bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?’, with the correct answer being 5 cents rather than 10 cents".

     

    Could someone explain it to this cognitively challenged commenter?

    Replies: @The Alarmist, @J.Ross, @Jack D, @Reg Cæsar, @espantoon, @Anonymous, @Anonymous, @ThreeCranes

    The bat costs \$1.05 and the balls costs \$.05 so added together they cost \$1.10 and the bat costs \$1.00 more than the ball. If the ball costs \$.10 and the total is \$1.10, the bat costs \$1.00 and the difference is only \$.90 so that’s the wrong answer.

    If you can’t reach this result with simple logic, it’s easy to solve algebraically. Let’s do it in pennies so you don’t have to deal with decimals:

    X + Y = 110
    X = Y + 100

    substituting

    Y + 100 +Y = 110
    2Y = 10
    Y = 5, X= 105

    • Agree: J
    • Replies: @clifford brown
    @Jack D

    Even simpler explanation.

    X+(X+100)=110
    2X=10
    X=5

    Replies: @Jack D, @AnotherDad

    , @J
    @Jack D

    Thanks. It is not obvious.

  7. I was part of Tetlock’s first forecasting tournament. I ended up dropping out because it was a huge time suck and I had babies in the house. I would also bother my friends texting them questions in their field of expertise at all hours.

    I also did the COVID tournament for a couple months. I did not bother my friends for this one. A lot of this was predicting COVID rates in various countries. I just relied on national stereotypes (Japan was going to do ok, Russia and India will be disasters). I was in the top 30 in the world until I dropped out after losing interest.

    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    @Hodag

    The nice thing about being good at forecasting is knowing up front what a waste of time something like that might be and instead finding more pleasurable ways to waste one’s time.

    , @epebble
    @Hodag

    The Top 7 countries in deaths per million population are:

    1. Peru
    2. Bulgaria
    3. Bosnia
    4. Hungary
    5. North Macedonia
    6. Montenegro
    7. Georgia

    My guess is nobody would have come up with list in 2020.

    Replies: @Bardon Kaldian, @Hodag

    , @katesisco
    @Hodag

    Rhinelander was my home until my husband and I built a new home at 4187 tails End Road. The social worker I saw used coercive hypnosis, end result being the community used former friend Gene Prime, VP Merchants State Bank, understandably now defunct, to take the house from us when it was completely livable after telling my husband he could not do body work in the drive in basement.
    The house plan was WI AG EXT blueprint, never returned after submission to county. The comment made was it was 'dated' which they cured by removing inner walls and adding cabinetry. The house was renumbered to 4189, removing thermopile windows and substituting double hung, outside trim to alter the $50,000 mortgage to $250,000 after using it as an Air B&B rental.
    We were driven out as to accumulate negative history, and allow the truth to fade. Many decades of homelessness followed, no security for me or for my brain injured son and the grandchildren lacking education. My husband was harassed to death at 8783 Frank Dr, a junk highway removal metal building altered to a large storage building with funds from our home after his death. All done in a community where we were known for work and family. Shame on the power structure that engineered this parasitism!!

  8. @Hodag
    I was part of Tetlock's first forecasting tournament. I ended up dropping out because it was a huge time suck and I had babies in the house. I would also bother my friends texting them questions in their field of expertise at all hours.

    I also did the COVID tournament for a couple months. I did not bother my friends for this one. A lot of this was predicting COVID rates in various countries. I just relied on national stereotypes (Japan was going to do ok, Russia and India will be disasters). I was in the top 30 in the world until I dropped out after losing interest.

    Replies: @The Alarmist, @epebble, @katesisco

    The nice thing about being good at forecasting is knowing up front what a waste of time something like that might be and instead finding more pleasurable ways to waste one’s time.

  9. Interesting.
    Observing my daughters and speculating on the actions of the human that carries my name, I think much of what is called “Autistism” or Aspergic behaviour is simply applying an unusually high weight to ones deliberate thought processes and a relative low weight to ones intuition.
    (Yes this is very similar to favouring System 2 over System 1).
    So my daughters will back their own logical arguments absolutely over social signals like the steam coming out the ears of their Mother and Father. I’m still much the same.

    This may come about from an inability to pick up social signals (which is how Autism is usually explained) – but I think it is often more about an unusual level of confidence in ones own system of logic. This would at least predict that better (and more widespread) education would bring about more Autism diagnoses. As would computer programming and Computer games – MMPORGs are rarely about social cues, often about solvable puzzles, no surprise given who designs them.

  10. Another interesting approach is to search out asymmetric bets on forecasts.

    For example if experts say there is a 20-1 chance of China destroying Taiwan, but one can short Taiwan Semiconductor (whose factories would presumably be destroyed in the conflict) and get a 200-1 payoff, then one does not need to be particularly good at forecasting.

    You just need to get reasonably adept at recognizing a deal. Even when wrong the cost of making the bet is small, but the upside is extreme.

    The most notable person to get rich doing this is Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Venture Capital works similarly….lots of random investments in companies that go nowhere, with the occasional Instagram or Facebook.

  11. It takes all kinds.

    Evolution of humans depended on how well a particular tribe survived. If my tribe survives and yours does not, my tribe’s village idiot fares better than the strongest and smartest member of your tribe.

    Some of the “divergent” mindsets are good for survival of a tribe. For example, field anthropologists or zoologists once tried treating monkeys for depression. The communities suffered. It turns out depressed monkeys go to the edge of the community to be alone, and therefore are the first to see dangerous situations, such as a lion.

    I strongly believe that having a few unusual types is necessary for a society, but having too many causes it to collapse. A few mildly autistic people probably strengthen a society. An entire society of autistic people would collapse.

    I also believe primitive societies got some benefit from depressives, artistic types, homosexuals, etc. but an entire society of such people wouldn’t last long.

    It is similar to sickle cell trait in Africa. Too little and the village is wiped out by malaria. Too much and the village is wiped out by anemia.

    Edit to add: I will point out that conquering tribes often took the more useful members of the conquered tribes as immigrants. This could be seen by the way the US and the USSR had lists of German scientists they wanted at the end of the war, so prominent scientists would often flee west to surrender to American forces.

    • Thanks: Not Raul
    • Replies: @Thea
    @Paleo Liberal

    Likewise having disabled people around brings out a certain generosity. A human community thrives on having both vulnerable and strong members as part of its feedback loop.

    , @AndrewR
    @Paleo Liberal

    Speaking of tribes, a prominent member of the American White tribe just resigned his job after 23 years because he uttered a word that some members of the American Black tribe might pretend to find offensive

    Absolutely cowardly behavior.

    https://www.oklahoman.com/story/sports/college/ou/2022/08/08/cale-gundy-coach-oklahoma-twitter-sooners-football-news/65395525007/

    Replies: @Alden

    , @SFG
    @Paleo Liberal

    Yeah, the difference is now those people are held up as the model and you get complaints about ‘heteronormativity’ and ‘ableism’ and ‘toxic masculinity’. I couldn’t stand BAP’s prose style but I totally saw what he was getting at there.

    , @PhysicistDave
    @Paleo Liberal

    Paleo Liberal wrote:


    Evolution of humans depended on how well a particular tribe survived. If my tribe survives and yours does not, my tribe’s village idiot fares better than the strongest and smartest member of your tribe.

    Some of the “divergent” mindsets are good for survival of a tribe.
     

    You are basically making an argument for what is known as "group selection." Extensive studies have been made of this, and selection at the level of the individual (more precisely the individual gene) tends to overwhelm group selection -- the "selfish gene" and all that.

    The classic text is Williams' Adaptation and Natural Selection, popularized of course by Dawkins in The Selfish Gene and other books.

    And, yes, I know that countless efforts have been made to refute selfish-gene theory: none really works.

    , @slumber_j
    @Paleo Liberal


    It takes all kinds.
     
    Yes, and the kind of people who did something like Forecasting in the olden days were called Futurists (not as in Marinetti's Manifesto of Futurism, which is awesome, but as in Alvin Toffler and his ilk). They always struck me as charismatic speaking-circuit meta-bullshitter types--which doesn't mean they were necessarily wrong, but that they were necessarily sort of anti-spergs.

    In the 1990s my then mother-in-law sold her very nice house in Carmona, Spain, a beautiful minor city outside Seville, to an allegedly noted French futurist: Carmona is convenient to the Seville airport, and he needed to be able to jet around freely in order to keep impressing important people and making I assume huge wads of money. I never met him, but my sense is that he was very much a swashbuckling Bernard-Henri Lévy type rather than an off-duty coder keeping abreast of minor conflicts around the world and the price of yttrium and whatever.
  12. Is the super forecaster phenomenon a statistical trick? Regularly people predict the PowerBall lottery, even though that seems impossible and win small fortunes. Some super forecasters even have won multiple times, I believe.

    Lottery super forecasters:

    Top 10 Lottery Winners Who Have Won Multiple Times
    https://themillionairepost.com/lottery-winners-most-wins/

    • Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @George

    The majority of Powerball winners did not actually choose their numbers, they let the computer select the numbers. So the computers random number generator is a superior predictor of lottery numbers than the millions of humans who attempt to predict the lottery numbers.

  13. Anonymous[248] • Disclaimer says:

    I knew a guy who was diagnosed with Asperger’s who blew every one of those types of questions and had about the same reasoning as a normie, although at times his lack of social skills showed.

  14. @Hodag
    I was part of Tetlock's first forecasting tournament. I ended up dropping out because it was a huge time suck and I had babies in the house. I would also bother my friends texting them questions in their field of expertise at all hours.

    I also did the COVID tournament for a couple months. I did not bother my friends for this one. A lot of this was predicting COVID rates in various countries. I just relied on national stereotypes (Japan was going to do ok, Russia and India will be disasters). I was in the top 30 in the world until I dropped out after losing interest.

    Replies: @The Alarmist, @epebble, @katesisco

    The Top 7 countries in deaths per million population are:

    1. Peru
    2. Bulgaria
    3. Bosnia
    4. Hungary
    5. North Macedonia
    6. Montenegro
    7. Georgia

    My guess is nobody would have come up with list in 2020.

    • Replies: @Bardon Kaldian
    @epebble

    Reported deaths.

    , @Hodag
    @epebble

    I certainly did not at the time. In order to be in the top deathrate countries the reporting needs to be honest, there should be some altitude, and I think the population must be older and fatter. But all of this is in retrospect. I expected Germany to do better, and it was early. Did not take eastern Germany into account. Ireland of all things did ok. India cooked the books.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

  15. The DSM-5 (2013) folded the previous disorder called Asperger’s Syndrome into the generic disorder category Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD), along with the old Pervasive Development Disorders (PDDs). ASD has relentlessly increased in incidence for about the last thirty years to where about 5% of boys now bear an ASD diagnosis (boys are about 4X more likely than girls to get this diagnosis). The health [sic] authorities seem to be unconcerned about this trend, which normal people would properly consider a national disaster. They are getting their knickers in a twist about monkeypox instead, a disease that affects a relatively small number of perverts and can be easily avoided by not being a pervert.

    • Replies: @Travis
    @Dutch Boy

    while autism cases have increased mental retardation cases have declined. As the number of autistic cases increases we see a corresponding decline in the number of mentally retarded children. Back in 1975 almost 4% of children were classified as mentally retarded. Today just 1% of children are identified as retarded. Much of the decline in the number of mentally retarded children is due to the increase in autism diagnosis.

    Replies: @Unintended Consequence, @ForeverCARealist, @Dutch Boy

  16. Before it also became code for “male personality which educrat or HR drone type dislikes” or “spoiled, dysfunctional child who parents want a medical diagnosis for”.

    • Agree: Redneck farmer
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @nebulafox

    Right, what's the difference between an autist and an asshole?

    At my school, selfish anti-social kids got their asses kicked. They weren't treated as victims of illness.

  17. The dual-process account of reasoning, which was made famous by Daniel Kahneman’s book Thinking Fast and Slow

    It’s my impression that the work on which that book is based has been pretty throughly exploded/debunked/falsified.

  18. @J

    ‘A bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?’, with the correct answer being 5 cents rather than 10 cents".

     

    Could someone explain it to this cognitively challenged commenter?

    Replies: @The Alarmist, @J.Ross, @Jack D, @Reg Cæsar, @espantoon, @Anonymous, @Anonymous, @ThreeCranes

    Relax. You aren’t being nickel-and-dimed.

    \$1.05 is a dollar more than \$0.05. Now add the two.

  19. @Paleo Liberal
    It takes all kinds.

    Evolution of humans depended on how well a particular tribe survived. If my tribe survives and yours does not, my tribe’s village idiot fares better than the strongest and smartest member of your tribe.

    Some of the “divergent” mindsets are good for survival of a tribe. For example, field anthropologists or zoologists once tried treating monkeys for depression. The communities suffered. It turns out depressed monkeys go to the edge of the community to be alone, and therefore are the first to see dangerous situations, such as a lion.

    I strongly believe that having a few unusual types is necessary for a society, but having too many causes it to collapse. A few mildly autistic people probably strengthen a society. An entire society of autistic people would collapse.

    I also believe primitive societies got some benefit from depressives, artistic types, homosexuals, etc. but an entire society of such people wouldn’t last long.

    It is similar to sickle cell trait in Africa. Too little and the village is wiped out by malaria. Too much and the village is wiped out by anemia.

    Edit to add: I will point out that conquering tribes often took the more useful members of the conquered tribes as immigrants. This could be seen by the way the US and the USSR had lists of German scientists they wanted at the end of the war, so prominent scientists would often flee west to surrender to American forces.

    Replies: @Thea, @AndrewR, @SFG, @PhysicistDave, @slumber_j

    Likewise having disabled people around brings out a certain generosity. A human community thrives on having both vulnerable and strong members as part of its feedback loop.

  20. It’s a big problem that the word “autism” has come to be used for both high IQ human robot-types and low IQ individuals whom we used to call “retarded.”

    The concept isn’t meant to make sense. It’s a money racket, like ADHD, meant to coerce parents into buying therapies, drugs and other costly tools to ‘fix’ their child. That’s why you see that range of variation, which, as a natural consequence, arises from market expansion. The same establishment has also become ever more aggressive in pushing drugs, therapies etc. on children, so if you have children, be wary.

    • Replies: @djdj
    @That one comment

    Our society has the outward appearance of diversity and freedom but in actual fact every human is imprisoned in the school system until the age of 20 - give or take 5 years.

    In that system everyone must be *The Same*.

    All sorts of people aren't built for that and for the work prison that follows it.

    Hence - drugs.

  21. @J

    ‘A bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?’, with the correct answer being 5 cents rather than 10 cents".

     

    Could someone explain it to this cognitively challenged commenter?

    Replies: @The Alarmist, @J.Ross, @Jack D, @Reg Cæsar, @espantoon, @Anonymous, @Anonymous, @ThreeCranes

    I appreciate Jack D’s reply to J. However I must admit that it’s all gibberish to me since elementary math 65 years ago. I have consistently scored at the top of verbal IQ or verbal intelligence, but the average Sub-Saharan goat herder would best me in math. People say that it’s because I had bad teachers. Or maybe I’m just math dumb.

    • Replies: @fnn
    @espantoon

    You sound a lot like Charles Murray's youngest son. Listen to interview starting at 9:30:

    https://miltrosenberg.com/show/four-ways-to-save-american-education-from-irrelevance-and-collapse/

    , @Anon
    @espantoon


    I appreciate Jack D’s reply to J. However I must admit that it’s all gibberish to me since elementary math 65 years ago. I have consistently scored at the top of verbal IQ or verbal intelligence, but the average Sub-Saharan goat herder would best me in math. People say that it’s because I had bad teachers. Or maybe I’m just math dumb.
     
    Don’t be intimidated, that’s probably the first equation Jack D has worked on since middle school.

    I take that back, he no doubt also uses an equation when he calculates how many comments he posts on Unz. x→∞

    Replies: @Jack D

    , @Dr. Doomngloom
    @espantoon

    A more natural way to think of the algebra is the ball costs. “X”, the bat a dollar more “ x +1.00) the total is 1.10 x +(x+1.0) = 1.10. (Ball +Bat) =$1.10

    Or 2*x = .1. , x=.05

    I didn’t do the algebra though, i started at bat =1.0 ball =.1. , obviously doesnt add up, so adjust the ball down by half the variance. Now it works.

  22. but then Herr Asperger got canceled for being a Nazi, so now we are back to using autism for a vast range of capabilities

    Asperger’s was removed from the the DSM because there was no clinical agreement as to what it was or how to diagnose it, apart from autism.

    A school psychologist told me that when parents were worried their child had no friends, if he said, “That’s because he’s a weirdo and nobody likes weirdos” he’d be fired.

    But if he said the student had autism, that would terrify the parents. They’d immediately imagine their child needing institutional care.

    So he’d diagnose Asperger’s. Something they could read a few books about and manage, like a food allergy.

    • Agree: Not Raul
    • Replies: @SunBakedSuburb
    @Paul Mendez

    I would be worried if the school psychologist told me that my child had no invisible friends because those are the best friends. That's what I told him, even though I had no child attending his school.

    Replies: @Jimbo

    , @Travis
    @Paul Mendez

    I still recall the first time I heard of autism. This was around 1988 when the film Rain Man was playing. In 1990 family friend informed us that their child was autistic. My father thought they said artistic at first, then when he met the child he told me the kid was retarded and they wanted everyone to think he was autistic because it sounded better than retarded. I think my father was correct. People would rather have an "autistic" child than a "retarded" child.

    This helps explain why the number of children diagnosed as retarded fell rapidly from 1990 to 2010 as the number of children diagnosed as autistic soared. Most of the children diagnosed as autistic would have been classified as retarded in the 1980s. "mentally retarded" became passe and is now considered demeaning, much like the terms idiot, imbecile and moron — once used by doctors to describe varying degrees of mental retardation. In contrast, autism has become culturally acceptable — and a ticket to a larger range of school services and accommodations.

    Replies: @prosa123, @That one comment, @Clyde

    , @AnotherDad
    @Paul Mendez


    But if he said the student had autism, that would terrify the parents. They’d immediately imagine their child needing institutional care.

    So he’d diagnose Asperger’s. Something they could read a few books about and manage, like a food allergy.
     
    Seems to me that's actually useful. "Hey, this isn't uncommon and doesn't mean he's not going to do well, marry and give you grandkids. Here's five things you can do to help him out, so he can leverage his natural strengths and still manage socially."

    We had a friend couple a long time back who had an autistic kid. He was a different kettle of fish--a failure--from these aspies.

    Seems like Asperger's should be in the DSM if it is for actually identifying various issues so people can get help. But obviously there's a big political component. They removed homosexuality as a mental disorder back in the 70s, when obviously it is a--very severe--mental disorder. Just one that happens to lock in pretty early and for which there aren't any good therapies. (Although not sodomizing a half dozen guys in the bathhouse might improve your overall health.)
    , @Unintended Consequence
    @Paul Mendez

    Kanners is the name for high-functioning autism.

  23. If more and more high-IQ robot-type autistics keep going trans, the gender disparity problem in STEM will be solved.

    • LOL: Carol
  24. “But autists like details for the sake of details …”

    The next time some numbnuts calls me retarded, and it happens with a certain frequency, I’ll just tell him I’m extremely detail-oriented. Which I am.

  25. @Paul Mendez

    but then Herr Asperger got canceled for being a Nazi, so now we are back to using autism for a vast range of capabilities
     
    Asperger’s was removed from the the DSM because there was no clinical agreement as to what it was or how to diagnose it, apart from autism.

    A school psychologist told me that when parents were worried their child had no friends, if he said, “That’s because he’s a weirdo and nobody likes weirdos” he’d be fired.

    But if he said the student had autism, that would terrify the parents. They’d immediately imagine their child needing institutional care.

    So he’d diagnose Asperger’s. Something they could read a few books about and manage, like a food allergy.

    Replies: @SunBakedSuburb, @Travis, @AnotherDad, @Unintended Consequence

    I would be worried if the school psychologist told me that my child had no invisible friends because those are the best friends. That’s what I told him, even though I had no child attending his school.

    • LOL: PhysicistDave
    • Troll: ScarletNumber
    • Replies: @Jimbo
    @SunBakedSuburb

    Jack Handy, is that you?

  26. @Paleo Liberal
    It takes all kinds.

    Evolution of humans depended on how well a particular tribe survived. If my tribe survives and yours does not, my tribe’s village idiot fares better than the strongest and smartest member of your tribe.

    Some of the “divergent” mindsets are good for survival of a tribe. For example, field anthropologists or zoologists once tried treating monkeys for depression. The communities suffered. It turns out depressed monkeys go to the edge of the community to be alone, and therefore are the first to see dangerous situations, such as a lion.

    I strongly believe that having a few unusual types is necessary for a society, but having too many causes it to collapse. A few mildly autistic people probably strengthen a society. An entire society of autistic people would collapse.

    I also believe primitive societies got some benefit from depressives, artistic types, homosexuals, etc. but an entire society of such people wouldn’t last long.

    It is similar to sickle cell trait in Africa. Too little and the village is wiped out by malaria. Too much and the village is wiped out by anemia.

    Edit to add: I will point out that conquering tribes often took the more useful members of the conquered tribes as immigrants. This could be seen by the way the US and the USSR had lists of German scientists they wanted at the end of the war, so prominent scientists would often flee west to surrender to American forces.

    Replies: @Thea, @AndrewR, @SFG, @PhysicistDave, @slumber_j

    Speaking of tribes, a prominent member of the American White tribe just resigned his job after 23 years because he uttered a word that some members of the American Black tribe might pretend to find offensive

    Absolutely cowardly behavior.

    https://www.oklahoman.com/story/sports/college/ou/2022/08/08/cale-gundy-coach-oklahoma-twitter-sooners-football-news/65395525007/

    • Replies: @Alden
    @AndrewR

    The coach was talking to the players and told them to take notes on their IPads . So they did. And the coach read aloud the notes one player made. The black player wrote the N word and the coach read it aloud.

    Talking to the players, giving a lesson teaching about football? I don’t know what the correct term for coaches lessons to the players. Whatever, it was a black player who wrote the N word. And nothing will happen to that player who wrote the word.

    Sometimes I’m ashamed to be White. What’s wrong with us? And why are race realist men still worshipping the Black Gods of football?

  27. @Paul Mendez

    but then Herr Asperger got canceled for being a Nazi, so now we are back to using autism for a vast range of capabilities
     
    Asperger’s was removed from the the DSM because there was no clinical agreement as to what it was or how to diagnose it, apart from autism.

    A school psychologist told me that when parents were worried their child had no friends, if he said, “That’s because he’s a weirdo and nobody likes weirdos” he’d be fired.

    But if he said the student had autism, that would terrify the parents. They’d immediately imagine their child needing institutional care.

    So he’d diagnose Asperger’s. Something they could read a few books about and manage, like a food allergy.

    Replies: @SunBakedSuburb, @Travis, @AnotherDad, @Unintended Consequence

    I still recall the first time I heard of autism. This was around 1988 when the film Rain Man was playing. In 1990 family friend informed us that their child was autistic. My father thought they said artistic at first, then when he met the child he told me the kid was retarded and they wanted everyone to think he was autistic because it sounded better than retarded. I think my father was correct. People would rather have an “autistic” child than a “retarded” child.

    This helps explain why the number of children diagnosed as retarded fell rapidly from 1990 to 2010 as the number of children diagnosed as autistic soared. Most of the children diagnosed as autistic would have been classified as retarded in the 1980s. “mentally retarded” became passe and is now considered demeaning, much like the terms idiot, imbecile and moron — once used by doctors to describe varying degrees of mental retardation. In contrast, autism has become culturally acceptable — and a ticket to a larger range of school services and accommodations.

    • Replies: @prosa123
    @Travis

    People would rather have an “autistic” child than a “retarded” child.
    This helps explain why the number of children diagnosed as retarded fell rapidly from 1990 to 2010 as the number of children diagnosed as autistic soared. Most of the children diagnosed as autistic would have been classified as retarded in the 1980s.

    Another reason for the decline in mental retardation is prenatal testing for Down Syndrome. It is partially offset, however, by higher survival rates for babies born extremely prematurely, who often have mental disabilities.

    , @That one comment
    @Travis


    This helps explain why the number of children diagnosed as retarded fell rapidly from 1990 to 2010 as the number of children diagnosed as autistic soared.
     
    It's also incorrect. The number of children diagnosed with mental retardation/IDD did not decrease. In fact, it has increased by a hundred percent since 2000, at least judging from those stats that I could gather. Considering comorbidity patterns between autism and mental retardation, I was under the impression that the ratio has mostly become stable by 2005, meaning that the push to shoehorn MR/IDD into autism must have been completed by then. More or less also coinciding with the time when we had that big autism hysteria thing going on. Surely not an ineffective way of establishing a market, including your aforementioned school services and accommodations, of course provided by for-profit companies subsidized by the federal government.
    , @Clyde
    @Travis


    “mentally retarded” became passe and is now considered demeaning, much like the terms idiot, imbecile and moron — once used by doctors to describe varying degrees of mental retardation. In contrast, autism has become culturally acceptable — and a ticket to a larger range of school services and accommodations.
     
    Also including Federale SS disability checks for these keeeds. A relative was a psychologist for the part of the urban school system where these 90% minority/black children were placed/warehoused. He was hounded by the parents to sign off on getting their autistic (formerly retarded) children gov't checks. Also known as crazy checks. Maybe $800 monthly (2009)
  28. Being a good forecaster relies on a few things. Being very emotionally detached so you don’t refuse to accept something because you don’t like the implications (Sorry libertarians), having a good memory allowing you to ‘model’ people, things and groups and what they’ve done in the past (Adam Curtis does a good job of using archival news and current affairs footage to remind us how much the consensus on people and things changed) and finally being very good at logical thinking. Memory I think is most important because you remember what has happened and who has what agenda. The ultimate test of any political ideology is how well it predicts the future since it will have described the present the best. If you have a good memory you test these ideas over and over and eventually realise which ones are the most accurate.

    Freud produced a lot of crap but there was something to the idiom of his about certain people having an internal locus, allowing them to have their own thoughts and views on things and most people not. (A modern version of this might be the ‘NPC’ meme)

    Having a reduced tolerance for social influence can express itself in lots of ways like being eccentric (Not conforming your public behaviour to what is most high status socially) believing crazy things (The dichotomy of the hulking frat boy types and the autistic guys being the two types who go trans has to do mostly with both having reduced sensitivity to social standards through very different pathways. It may be that a broader selection of men have the same fetish or sense of dissociative delusions but they don’t go trans because they’re too concerned about peoples reactions) or being Cassandra forecasters unswayed by social consensus. (Often called ‘contrarians’)

    Indeed one interesting example of this is the ‘Skeptic community’, this was full of highly logically high functioning autistic male nerds who liked to work out how seemingly paranormal things were really or questioning the logic of religion in very logical ways. (If you think the universe is too complex to have existed without a God then why do you think the even more complex God needs no creator? And then who created his creator? Eventually you have to just go ‘it just is’.)

    But as atheism and the skeptic community became more mainstream it began to attract more and more women and then you had the famous ‘elevatorgate’ event. Now the biggest anti-SJWs are the old school skeptics like Michael Shermer who is now a controversial figure at the very events he helped to found. Ditto for Richard Dawkins. They identify SJWism as a kind of religion.

    What’s notable, does the proportion of women in a place make it much harder for the non-consensus conforming Cassandras to thrive and be listened to? I’d say very much yes.

    Social media has turned the internet upside down. Before it was full of exactly those types of guys, remember the old line “There are no girls on the internet”. Now the bulk of ‘content’ and writing on the internet, even on topics like geopolitics is done by young women and not just young women but the powerusers of social media, the female equivalent of the male nerd of yesteryear are young women with BPD who love and thrive on social media. Is it any wonder in this environment that things like ‘Russiagate’ proliferated and turned progressive liberal thought on Russia into whatever the neocons were saying? Is it a double-edged sword, will they also mass protest neocon invasions too? Probably, so we’ll see where things go. Social media, like it or not, has enormous influence on public discourse.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad
    @Altai


    But as atheism and the skeptic community became more mainstream it began to attract more and more women and then you had the famous ‘elevatorgate’ event. Now the biggest anti-SJWs are the old school skeptics like Michael Shermer who is now a controversial figure at the very events he helped to found. Ditto for Richard Dawkins. They identify SJWism as a kind of religion.

    What’s notable, does the proportion of women in a place make it much harder for the non-consensus conforming Cassandras to thrive and be listened to? I’d say very much yes.
     
    I think we've done the experiment and this in now in the "duh" category.

    Individual women can be fine and offer contributions. But once you get a big enough collection that you're dealing with "sexism in the skeptical community" or whatever, forget it. The tedious conformism and whatever you call their "that's not appropriate" policing--you're done.

    What I would think helps in this forecaster thing:
    -- smarts
    -- broad knowledge base, inc. historical knowledge (so you recognize "we've been here before")
    -- generalizing reasoning tendency/ability
    -- good statistical sense/knowledge (I'd assume "superforecasters" would actually roll out some tools)
    -- ability to set aside your feelings and go with the data

    You look at this list and it definitely suggests male and a little aspie.
    , @SFG
    @Altai

    I’ve often thought exactly what you said. We had a little triumph of the autists on the Internet in the 1990s-2000s before social media kicked in and Social Justice attacked. At least the 4chan crowd doesn’t give a damn.

  29. Anon[242] • Disclaimer says:

    I don’t think there’s a strong connection between autism and being good forecasters

    Successful business people are very good forecasters; it’s almost by definition. But if you reflect on successful business people, such as Trump, and even others you have come in contact with, most of them don’t seem autistic. I’ll even submit that of the group of business people who have a net worth over a million, there are more non autists than autists.

    • Agree: Alden
    • Replies: @Alden
    @Anon

    People who really truly actually have been diagnosed with true autism have enormous difficulties holding down any kind of job or stable living situation. Even when their rent is paid every month by family or some government disability program.

    They can hardly forecast a week’s worth of groceries. Let alone next Christmas’ best selling toy, or other consumer trends. Or wars inflation deflation interest rates or anything at all.

    Too many fools have been tossing the word autism around for too many decades. What was once diagnosed as chronic undifferentiated schizophrenia is now diagnosed as on the autism spectrum

    Replies: @S. Anonyia

    , @Bill Jones
    @Anon

    When I was Private Bankstering a fair proportion of clients were successful business people (the rest were old money and political filth) because I was the Derivatives guy, my clients (And they needed $20 million net worth) tended toward the bit Nerdy and those interested in bragging rights among their peers on the latest cool new financial thing they found. Never saw one who I classify as autistic. I guess the people skills was a greater driver of success.

  30. @Paul Mendez

    but then Herr Asperger got canceled for being a Nazi, so now we are back to using autism for a vast range of capabilities
     
    Asperger’s was removed from the the DSM because there was no clinical agreement as to what it was or how to diagnose it, apart from autism.

    A school psychologist told me that when parents were worried their child had no friends, if he said, “That’s because he’s a weirdo and nobody likes weirdos” he’d be fired.

    But if he said the student had autism, that would terrify the parents. They’d immediately imagine their child needing institutional care.

    So he’d diagnose Asperger’s. Something they could read a few books about and manage, like a food allergy.

    Replies: @SunBakedSuburb, @Travis, @AnotherDad, @Unintended Consequence

    But if he said the student had autism, that would terrify the parents. They’d immediately imagine their child needing institutional care.

    So he’d diagnose Asperger’s. Something they could read a few books about and manage, like a food allergy.

    Seems to me that’s actually useful. “Hey, this isn’t uncommon and doesn’t mean he’s not going to do well, marry and give you grandkids. Here’s five things you can do to help him out, so he can leverage his natural strengths and still manage socially.”

    We had a friend couple a long time back who had an autistic kid. He was a different kettle of fish–a failure–from these aspies.

    Seems like Asperger’s should be in the DSM if it is for actually identifying various issues so people can get help. But obviously there’s a big political component. They removed homosexuality as a mental disorder back in the 70s, when obviously it is a–very severe–mental disorder. Just one that happens to lock in pretty early and for which there aren’t any good therapies. (Although not sodomizing a half dozen guys in the bathhouse might improve your overall health.)

  31. @Jack D
    @J

    The bat costs $1.05 and the balls costs $.05 so added together they cost $1.10 and the bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. If the ball costs $.10 and the total is $1.10, the bat costs $1.00 and the difference is only $.90 so that's the wrong answer.

    If you can't reach this result with simple logic, it's easy to solve algebraically. Let's do it in pennies so you don't have to deal with decimals:

    X + Y = 110
    X = Y + 100

    substituting

    Y + 100 +Y = 110
    2Y = 10
    Y = 5, X= 105

    Replies: @clifford brown, @J

    Even simpler explanation.

    X+(X+100)=110
    2X=10
    X=5

    • Thanks: J, J
    • Replies: @Jack D
    @clifford brown

    This is such a simple problem that you don't really need to set it up algebraically at all.

    But what if I told you that a used Escalade and a set of new rimz cost $51,382 together but that the car cost $48,946 more than the rimz. Your method would tell me that rimz cost $1,218 but I still don't know how much the Escalade costs.

    Another way of think of this without equations (algebra existed long before they was a system of notation for it) is that the price of the cheaper item is always going to be ONE HALF of the difference between the price of the two times. We know that if you price the cheaper item at the full difference it's not going to work but if you price the cheaper item as 1/2 the difference it always does. The reason is that the lower priced item appears TWICE in the setup (see step 3) - this is the trick .

    Lets' define the constant S , the price spread, as X-Y, where X is the lower priced item, and the constant T as the total. In the original problem we know that S=100 and T=110.

    1. Y = X + S (Y= X+ 10o)
    2. X + Y = T (X+Y = 110)
    3. X + X +S = T (X+X +100= 110) - this is the same as your step 1 - this is the crucial step where the trick is embedded.
    4. 2X + S = T (2X + 100 = 110)
    3. 2X = T-S (2X= 10)
    3. X = T-S /2 (X = 10/2)

    Replies: @Jack D, @prosa123

    , @AnotherDad
    @clifford brown

    A decent algebraic description of how most on-the-ball people quickly solve it. Chop off 100 and whack the rest in half.

    Replies: @Jack D

  32. What about being good at answering the Monte Hall question (you choose 1 of 3 doors, one of the doors you didn’t choose and that doesn’t have the prize 9s opened, you are then Sked if you want to switch). As a grad student I thought the correct answer was obvious (i.e. switch) but i got vehement disagreement from some of my fellow grad students who were much better at math then me and who bathed much less frequently.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Larry, San Francisco

    That was actually a deceptively hard problem and a lot of smart people got it wrong. At first glance, it seems impossible that some external event (opening door #3) could change the probability of whether you picked the right door or not retrospectively.

    The easy way to understand it is to imagine that instead of 3 doors, imagine that it's a deck of 52 cards and you are supposed to pick the Ace of Spades. When you make your first guess, there's a 1 in 52 chance that you picked the Ace. Then Monty shows you 50 of the cards, none of which is an Ace of Spades and 1 hidden card. The odds that the Ace is among that group of 51 cards is 51/52 and now you know that it's not any of the other 50 cards he just showed you, the odds that the hidden card is the Ace of Spades are STILL 51/52.

    What throws people off is that there are only 3 doors. If you increase the # of doors/cards it becomes easy to understand.

    Replies: @AnotherDad

  33. @Altai
    Being a good forecaster relies on a few things. Being very emotionally detached so you don't refuse to accept something because you don't like the implications (Sorry libertarians), having a good memory allowing you to 'model' people, things and groups and what they've done in the past (Adam Curtis does a good job of using archival news and current affairs footage to remind us how much the consensus on people and things changed) and finally being very good at logical thinking. Memory I think is most important because you remember what has happened and who has what agenda. The ultimate test of any political ideology is how well it predicts the future since it will have described the present the best. If you have a good memory you test these ideas over and over and eventually realise which ones are the most accurate.

    Freud produced a lot of crap but there was something to the idiom of his about certain people having an internal locus, allowing them to have their own thoughts and views on things and most people not. (A modern version of this might be the 'NPC' meme)

    Having a reduced tolerance for social influence can express itself in lots of ways like being eccentric (Not conforming your public behaviour to what is most high status socially) believing crazy things (The dichotomy of the hulking frat boy types and the autistic guys being the two types who go trans has to do mostly with both having reduced sensitivity to social standards through very different pathways. It may be that a broader selection of men have the same fetish or sense of dissociative delusions but they don't go trans because they're too concerned about peoples reactions) or being Cassandra forecasters unswayed by social consensus. (Often called 'contrarians')

    Indeed one interesting example of this is the 'Skeptic community', this was full of highly logically high functioning autistic male nerds who liked to work out how seemingly paranormal things were really or questioning the logic of religion in very logical ways. (If you think the universe is too complex to have existed without a God then why do you think the even more complex God needs no creator? And then who created his creator? Eventually you have to just go 'it just is'.)

    But as atheism and the skeptic community became more mainstream it began to attract more and more women and then you had the famous 'elevatorgate' event. Now the biggest anti-SJWs are the old school skeptics like Michael Shermer who is now a controversial figure at the very events he helped to found. Ditto for Richard Dawkins. They identify SJWism as a kind of religion.

    What's notable, does the proportion of women in a place make it much harder for the non-consensus conforming Cassandras to thrive and be listened to? I'd say very much yes.

    Social media has turned the internet upside down. Before it was full of exactly those types of guys, remember the old line "There are no girls on the internet". Now the bulk of 'content' and writing on the internet, even on topics like geopolitics is done by young women and not just young women but the powerusers of social media, the female equivalent of the male nerd of yesteryear are young women with BPD who love and thrive on social media. Is it any wonder in this environment that things like 'Russiagate' proliferated and turned progressive liberal thought on Russia into whatever the neocons were saying? Is it a double-edged sword, will they also mass protest neocon invasions too? Probably, so we'll see where things go. Social media, like it or not, has enormous influence on public discourse.

    Replies: @AnotherDad, @SFG

    But as atheism and the skeptic community became more mainstream it began to attract more and more women and then you had the famous ‘elevatorgate’ event. Now the biggest anti-SJWs are the old school skeptics like Michael Shermer who is now a controversial figure at the very events he helped to found. Ditto for Richard Dawkins. They identify SJWism as a kind of religion.

    What’s notable, does the proportion of women in a place make it much harder for the non-consensus conforming Cassandras to thrive and be listened to? I’d say very much yes.

    I think we’ve done the experiment and this in now in the “duh” category.

    Individual women can be fine and offer contributions. But once you get a big enough collection that you’re dealing with “sexism in the skeptical community” or whatever, forget it. The tedious conformism and whatever you call their “that’s not appropriate” policing–you’re done.

    What I would think helps in this forecaster thing:
    — smarts
    — broad knowledge base, inc. historical knowledge (so you recognize “we’ve been here before”)
    — generalizing reasoning tendency/ability
    — good statistical sense/knowledge (I’d assume “superforecasters” would actually roll out some tools)
    — ability to set aside your feelings and go with the data

    You look at this list and it definitely suggests male and a little aspie.

  34. Anonymous[248] • Disclaimer says:
    @J

    ‘A bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?’, with the correct answer being 5 cents rather than 10 cents".

     

    Could someone explain it to this cognitively challenged commenter?

    Replies: @The Alarmist, @J.Ross, @Jack D, @Reg Cæsar, @espantoon, @Anonymous, @Anonymous, @ThreeCranes

    Pay attention to the part where it says “in total”. Skipping over that, or not thinking it through, is how you get the common answer instead of the correct answer.

    • Thanks: J
  35. @clifford brown
    @Jack D

    Even simpler explanation.

    X+(X+100)=110
    2X=10
    X=5

    Replies: @Jack D, @AnotherDad

    This is such a simple problem that you don’t really need to set it up algebraically at all.

    But what if I told you that a used Escalade and a set of new rimz cost \$51,382 together but that the car cost \$48,946 more than the rimz. Your method would tell me that rimz cost \$1,218 but I still don’t know how much the Escalade costs.

    Another way of think of this without equations (algebra existed long before they was a system of notation for it) is that the price of the cheaper item is always going to be ONE HALF of the difference between the price of the two times. We know that if you price the cheaper item at the full difference it’s not going to work but if you price the cheaper item as 1/2 the difference it always does. The reason is that the lower priced item appears TWICE in the setup (see step 3) – this is the trick .

    Lets’ define the constant S , the price spread, as X-Y, where X is the lower priced item, and the constant T as the total. In the original problem we know that S=100 and T=110.

    1. Y = X + S (Y= X+ 10o)
    2. X + Y = T (X+Y = 110)
    3. X + X +S = T (X+X +100= 110) – this is the same as your step 1 – this is the crucial step where the trick is embedded.
    4. 2X + S = T (2X + 100 = 110)
    3. 2X = T-S (2X= 10)
    3. X = T-S /2 (X = 10/2)

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Jack D


    the price of the cheaper item is always going to be ONE HALF of the difference between the price of the two times
     
    OOPS - correction - the price of the cheaper item is always going to be ONE HALF of the difference between the total price and the price spread between the two items.
    , @prosa123
    @Jack D

    But what if I told you that a used Escalade and a set of new rimz cost $51,382 together but that the car cost $48,946 more than the rimz. Your method would tell me that rimz cost $1,218 but I still don’t know how much the Escalade costs.

    No one, but no one, would be satisfied with a set of rimz costing less than $5,000.

  36. @Jack D
    @clifford brown

    This is such a simple problem that you don't really need to set it up algebraically at all.

    But what if I told you that a used Escalade and a set of new rimz cost $51,382 together but that the car cost $48,946 more than the rimz. Your method would tell me that rimz cost $1,218 but I still don't know how much the Escalade costs.

    Another way of think of this without equations (algebra existed long before they was a system of notation for it) is that the price of the cheaper item is always going to be ONE HALF of the difference between the price of the two times. We know that if you price the cheaper item at the full difference it's not going to work but if you price the cheaper item as 1/2 the difference it always does. The reason is that the lower priced item appears TWICE in the setup (see step 3) - this is the trick .

    Lets' define the constant S , the price spread, as X-Y, where X is the lower priced item, and the constant T as the total. In the original problem we know that S=100 and T=110.

    1. Y = X + S (Y= X+ 10o)
    2. X + Y = T (X+Y = 110)
    3. X + X +S = T (X+X +100= 110) - this is the same as your step 1 - this is the crucial step where the trick is embedded.
    4. 2X + S = T (2X + 100 = 110)
    3. 2X = T-S (2X= 10)
    3. X = T-S /2 (X = 10/2)

    Replies: @Jack D, @prosa123

    the price of the cheaper item is always going to be ONE HALF of the difference between the price of the two times

    OOPS – correction – the price of the cheaper item is always going to be ONE HALF of the difference between the total price and the price spread between the two items.

  37. @clifford brown
    @Jack D

    Even simpler explanation.

    X+(X+100)=110
    2X=10
    X=5

    Replies: @Jack D, @AnotherDad

    A decent algebraic description of how most on-the-ball people quickly solve it. Chop off 100 and whack the rest in half.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @AnotherDad

    BTW, the general trick to solving many multiple choice math questions is to forget solving for X and just using substitution. If you take a guess that the ball costs a dime and you check the answer you see right away that it's wrong and then a second later you realize that a nickel works.

    Figuring out WHY it works and come up with a generalized solution takes longer but if all you need to do is identify the right answer you can get to it quickly just by guessing and checking.

  38. @AnotherDad
    @clifford brown

    A decent algebraic description of how most on-the-ball people quickly solve it. Chop off 100 and whack the rest in half.

    Replies: @Jack D

    BTW, the general trick to solving many multiple choice math questions is to forget solving for X and just using substitution. If you take a guess that the ball costs a dime and you check the answer you see right away that it’s wrong and then a second later you realize that a nickel works.

    Figuring out WHY it works and come up with a generalized solution takes longer but if all you need to do is identify the right answer you can get to it quickly just by guessing and checking.

  39. I don’t know whether they are autists or not, but the peepee pants boys at slatestarcodex believed that covid would end the world and their hyperventilation was the male match to the nearly universal female panic which helped set the world ablaze.

    Granted, our host did not cover himself in glory at that time as he tried to figure out how to close a faucet without needing to wash his hands again, but he didn’t promote panic beginning in January and he kept his manias to himself and even started sharing Ionnidas and such very early on. The bedwetting boys in the slatestarcodex community – which extends quite far – predicted the end of the world and then did all that they could to push it.

    Razib Khan embarrassed himself terribly and has yet to wash himself of his errors. I hold few people’s intuitions about societies as highly as I hold of Razib’s, but being a daddy broke his sense and he went 100% cookoo, buying rooms full of toilet paper and masking, etc. Which just goes to show that nobody’s perfect I guess.

    • Replies: @ScarletNumber
    @djdj


    I don’t know whether they are autists or not, but the peepee pants boys at slatestarcodex
     
    Really? SSC and ACX are autist central. Go read their subreddit for further evidence
  40. @That one comment

    It’s a big problem that the word “autism” has come to be used for both high IQ human robot-types and low IQ individuals whom we used to call “retarded.”
     
    The concept isn't meant to make sense. It's a money racket, like ADHD, meant to coerce parents into buying therapies, drugs and other costly tools to 'fix' their child. That's why you see that range of variation, which, as a natural consequence, arises from market expansion. The same establishment has also become ever more aggressive in pushing drugs, therapies etc. on children, so if you have children, be wary.

    Replies: @djdj

    Our society has the outward appearance of diversity and freedom but in actual fact every human is imprisoned in the school system until the age of 20 – give or take 5 years.

    In that system everyone must be *The Same*.

    All sorts of people aren’t built for that and for the work prison that follows it.

    Hence – drugs.

    • Agree: PhysicistDave
  41. OT: Olivia Newton-John just died.

    • Troll: ScarletNumber
    • Replies: @Jack D
    @prosa123

    She was the granddaughter of Max Born and related to a bunch of other eminent German Jews as well on her mother's side.

    Replies: @Intelligent Dasein

    , @Jenner Ickham Errican
    @prosa123

    White Magic

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sl5bqHP0-KA

    Black Magic

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3_uO5Fa8Oo

  42. @Larry, San Francisco
    What about being good at answering the Monte Hall question (you choose 1 of 3 doors, one of the doors you didn't choose and that doesn't have the prize 9s opened, you are then Sked if you want to switch). As a grad student I thought the correct answer was obvious (i.e. switch) but i got vehement disagreement from some of my fellow grad students who were much better at math then me and who bathed much less frequently.

    Replies: @Jack D

    That was actually a deceptively hard problem and a lot of smart people got it wrong. At first glance, it seems impossible that some external event (opening door #3) could change the probability of whether you picked the right door or not retrospectively.

    The easy way to understand it is to imagine that instead of 3 doors, imagine that it’s a deck of 52 cards and you are supposed to pick the Ace of Spades. When you make your first guess, there’s a 1 in 52 chance that you picked the Ace. Then Monty shows you 50 of the cards, none of which is an Ace of Spades and 1 hidden card. The odds that the Ace is among that group of 51 cards is 51/52 and now you know that it’s not any of the other 50 cards he just showed you, the odds that the hidden card is the Ace of Spades are STILL 51/52.

    What throws people off is that there are only 3 doors. If you increase the # of doors/cards it becomes easy to understand.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad
    @Jack D

    Jack, that's a very good example for explaining this.

    One of the things that is very helpful for analyzing a lot of things, is to go ahead and push the logic/math out to one end or another (scale, time, etc.) to see what's actually going on. For many cases that's enough to figure out if an idea or policy really makes any sense at all. It often does not.


    But, in fairness, one of the other things going on that make this difficult for people is the human angle. People think "Is Monty's trying to screw me, make a fool out of me?" This is not unreasonable, and if you don't know Monty's shtick, it makes a lot of sense to stick. "I gotta a 1/3 chance, you can't take that away from me." It's only when you know that Monty's offer is programmatic--he doesn't just do it if you've got the right door, he does it all the time--that people can put aside their "what's the con" thinking and just do the math.

  43. @Jack D
    @clifford brown

    This is such a simple problem that you don't really need to set it up algebraically at all.

    But what if I told you that a used Escalade and a set of new rimz cost $51,382 together but that the car cost $48,946 more than the rimz. Your method would tell me that rimz cost $1,218 but I still don't know how much the Escalade costs.

    Another way of think of this without equations (algebra existed long before they was a system of notation for it) is that the price of the cheaper item is always going to be ONE HALF of the difference between the price of the two times. We know that if you price the cheaper item at the full difference it's not going to work but if you price the cheaper item as 1/2 the difference it always does. The reason is that the lower priced item appears TWICE in the setup (see step 3) - this is the trick .

    Lets' define the constant S , the price spread, as X-Y, where X is the lower priced item, and the constant T as the total. In the original problem we know that S=100 and T=110.

    1. Y = X + S (Y= X+ 10o)
    2. X + Y = T (X+Y = 110)
    3. X + X +S = T (X+X +100= 110) - this is the same as your step 1 - this is the crucial step where the trick is embedded.
    4. 2X + S = T (2X + 100 = 110)
    3. 2X = T-S (2X= 10)
    3. X = T-S /2 (X = 10/2)

    Replies: @Jack D, @prosa123

    But what if I told you that a used Escalade and a set of new rimz cost \$51,382 together but that the car cost \$48,946 more than the rimz. Your method would tell me that rimz cost \$1,218 but I still don’t know how much the Escalade costs.

    No one, but no one, would be satisfied with a set of rimz costing less than \$5,000.

  44. @prosa123
    OT: Olivia Newton-John just died.

    Replies: @Jack D, @Jenner Ickham Errican

    She was the granddaughter of Max Born and related to a bunch of other eminent German Jews as well on her mother’s side.

    • Agree: prosa123, MEH 0910
    • Replies: @Intelligent Dasein
    @Jack D

    I guaran-damn-tee you that nobody on this HBD-devoted blog ever done heard that before, so you're not being at all pedantic for mentioning it now.

    Not. At all. Pedantic.

  45. Clearly of great interest to those who trade the markets or play the ponies — The ability to mentally crunch vast amounts of data, draw with photographic memory on personal experience, but also hear the little voice that sometimes says Plan B, not Plan A.

    Reminds me somewhat of the research testing to see if some people exhibit at least a mild or occasional ESP

  46. Anonymous[178] • Disclaimer says:
    @J

    ‘A bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?’, with the correct answer being 5 cents rather than 10 cents".

     

    Could someone explain it to this cognitively challenged commenter?

    Replies: @The Alarmist, @J.Ross, @Jack D, @Reg Cæsar, @espantoon, @Anonymous, @Anonymous, @ThreeCranes

    It’s one of the prototypical algebra “word problems” that puts most people off of math after middle school. Another classic of the genre is about 1 train leaving east from Chicago at X o’clock at A miles per hour, another leaving west from New York at Y o’clock at B miles per hour, what time do they meet? etc.

  47. @epebble
    @Hodag

    The Top 7 countries in deaths per million population are:

    1. Peru
    2. Bulgaria
    3. Bosnia
    4. Hungary
    5. North Macedonia
    6. Montenegro
    7. Georgia

    My guess is nobody would have come up with list in 2020.

    Replies: @Bardon Kaldian, @Hodag

    Reported deaths.

  48. @espantoon
    @J

    I appreciate Jack D's reply to J. However I must admit that it's all gibberish to me since elementary math 65 years ago. I have consistently scored at the top of verbal IQ or verbal intelligence, but the average Sub-Saharan goat herder would best me in math. People say that it's because I had bad teachers. Or maybe I'm just math dumb.

    Replies: @fnn, @Anon, @Dr. Doomngloom

    You sound a lot like Charles Murray’s youngest son. Listen to interview starting at 9:30:

    https://miltrosenberg.com/show/four-ways-to-save-american-education-from-irrelevance-and-collapse/

  49. To know more about autism (picture thinkers like Gates or Tesla, word-fact thinkers, and pattern thinkers), please read Temple Grandin’s books or watch her videos.

    She was diagnosed with autism at about 40 years old by neurologist Oliver Sacks. Sacks fascinating works were initially based (in part) on those of Russian neuropsychologist Alexander Luria, and for autism on those of Leo Kanner and Hans Asperger.

    Silicon Valley is filled with Aspies (usually picture thinkers). Grandin, in her books, says she’s able to predict whether a complex machine or system will work or be a complete disaster long before it’s actually implemented. Because she ”sees” the whole system operating in detail while it’s being designed, and is infuriated when engineers don’t immediately see and correct basic errors which they discover only too late.

    https://www.templegrandin.com/

    ”Neurological patients, Oliver Sacks has written, are travellers to unimaginable lands. An Anthropologist on Mars offers portraits of seven such travellers– including a surgeon consumed by the compulsive tics of Tourette’s Syndrome except when he is operating; an artist who loses all sense of color in a car accident, but finds a new sensibility and creative power in black and white; and an autistic professor who has great difficulty deciphering the simplest social exchange between humans, but has built a career out of her intuitive understanding of animal behavior.

    https://www.oliversacks.com/oliver-sacks-books/an-anthropologist-on-mars/

    • Thanks: MEH 0910
    • Replies: @PhysicistDave
    @Athena

    Athena wrote:


    Because she ”sees” the whole system operating in detail while it’s being designed, and is infuriated when engineers don’t immediately see and correct basic errors which they discover only too late.
     
    That's the difference between good and not-so-good engineers.

    The good ones do "see" the system. Of course, this can make it hard for them to communicate to those who cannot "see" it.
  50. @Altai
    Being a good forecaster relies on a few things. Being very emotionally detached so you don't refuse to accept something because you don't like the implications (Sorry libertarians), having a good memory allowing you to 'model' people, things and groups and what they've done in the past (Adam Curtis does a good job of using archival news and current affairs footage to remind us how much the consensus on people and things changed) and finally being very good at logical thinking. Memory I think is most important because you remember what has happened and who has what agenda. The ultimate test of any political ideology is how well it predicts the future since it will have described the present the best. If you have a good memory you test these ideas over and over and eventually realise which ones are the most accurate.

    Freud produced a lot of crap but there was something to the idiom of his about certain people having an internal locus, allowing them to have their own thoughts and views on things and most people not. (A modern version of this might be the 'NPC' meme)

    Having a reduced tolerance for social influence can express itself in lots of ways like being eccentric (Not conforming your public behaviour to what is most high status socially) believing crazy things (The dichotomy of the hulking frat boy types and the autistic guys being the two types who go trans has to do mostly with both having reduced sensitivity to social standards through very different pathways. It may be that a broader selection of men have the same fetish or sense of dissociative delusions but they don't go trans because they're too concerned about peoples reactions) or being Cassandra forecasters unswayed by social consensus. (Often called 'contrarians')

    Indeed one interesting example of this is the 'Skeptic community', this was full of highly logically high functioning autistic male nerds who liked to work out how seemingly paranormal things were really or questioning the logic of religion in very logical ways. (If you think the universe is too complex to have existed without a God then why do you think the even more complex God needs no creator? And then who created his creator? Eventually you have to just go 'it just is'.)

    But as atheism and the skeptic community became more mainstream it began to attract more and more women and then you had the famous 'elevatorgate' event. Now the biggest anti-SJWs are the old school skeptics like Michael Shermer who is now a controversial figure at the very events he helped to found. Ditto for Richard Dawkins. They identify SJWism as a kind of religion.

    What's notable, does the proportion of women in a place make it much harder for the non-consensus conforming Cassandras to thrive and be listened to? I'd say very much yes.

    Social media has turned the internet upside down. Before it was full of exactly those types of guys, remember the old line "There are no girls on the internet". Now the bulk of 'content' and writing on the internet, even on topics like geopolitics is done by young women and not just young women but the powerusers of social media, the female equivalent of the male nerd of yesteryear are young women with BPD who love and thrive on social media. Is it any wonder in this environment that things like 'Russiagate' proliferated and turned progressive liberal thought on Russia into whatever the neocons were saying? Is it a double-edged sword, will they also mass protest neocon invasions too? Probably, so we'll see where things go. Social media, like it or not, has enormous influence on public discourse.

    Replies: @AnotherDad, @SFG

    I’ve often thought exactly what you said. We had a little triumph of the autists on the Internet in the 1990s-2000s before social media kicked in and Social Justice attacked. At least the 4chan crowd doesn’t give a damn.

  51. @Paleo Liberal
    It takes all kinds.

    Evolution of humans depended on how well a particular tribe survived. If my tribe survives and yours does not, my tribe’s village idiot fares better than the strongest and smartest member of your tribe.

    Some of the “divergent” mindsets are good for survival of a tribe. For example, field anthropologists or zoologists once tried treating monkeys for depression. The communities suffered. It turns out depressed monkeys go to the edge of the community to be alone, and therefore are the first to see dangerous situations, such as a lion.

    I strongly believe that having a few unusual types is necessary for a society, but having too many causes it to collapse. A few mildly autistic people probably strengthen a society. An entire society of autistic people would collapse.

    I also believe primitive societies got some benefit from depressives, artistic types, homosexuals, etc. but an entire society of such people wouldn’t last long.

    It is similar to sickle cell trait in Africa. Too little and the village is wiped out by malaria. Too much and the village is wiped out by anemia.

    Edit to add: I will point out that conquering tribes often took the more useful members of the conquered tribes as immigrants. This could be seen by the way the US and the USSR had lists of German scientists they wanted at the end of the war, so prominent scientists would often flee west to surrender to American forces.

    Replies: @Thea, @AndrewR, @SFG, @PhysicistDave, @slumber_j

    Yeah, the difference is now those people are held up as the model and you get complaints about ‘heteronormativity’ and ‘ableism’ and ‘toxic masculinity’. I couldn’t stand BAP’s prose style but I totally saw what he was getting at there.

  52. Great point about Chekov as the autism textbook counterexample. I don’t remember enough of TOS to say if the token Russian character was anti-autist but a DeKelley-Doohan-Sulu-Nimoy scale could still be used for ranking

  53. Chekhov’s gun was the basis of the Final Jeopardy clue just a few days ago, but it was a rerun. Only one contestant came up with Who is Chekhov?

    “High Functioning” means they can communicate and wipe their own butts, it doesn’t mean they’re high IQ. But before the diagnosis became so popular, Survey said Aspies were usually above average IQ, probably because their above-average parents were the ones getting the diagnoses. It also said a huge percentage were unemployed as adults, but that may have included the lower functioning.

  54. ATTIS was the ancient Phrygian god of vegetation and consort of the great Mother of the Gods Kybele (Cybele). As punishment for his infidelity, the goddess drove him into a mad frenzy which caused him to castrate himself. Initiates into the eunuch-priesthood of Kybele, known as Gallai (Galli), re-enacted this myth with an act of self-castration.
    ——
    The story of the day, the week, and possibly the election, is the IRS Expansion Act. The Wall Street Journal has one (1) story about this on its landing page, and it’s florid gushing about how millionaires who can already do whatever they want with their houses will have an easier time redecorating. This bill is a catastrophe and the only bright side is the anger we are already seeing.

    • Replies: @Alden
    @J.Ross

    I’ve been reading about the vastly expanded IRS for about a week. I think everybody can relax. It’s probably nothing but an expanded federal welfare jobs programs for black women. Whose incompetency and laziness will allow taxpayers to evade and avoid more federal taxes than we do now.

    OT the obscenity FBI spent today, 8/8/22 searching Trump’s home Mar a lago.

  55. Honestly, I find it hard to believe that “most people” get the bat and ball question wrong.

    Anyway, I knew this post was going to lead into a panhandle. Does this mean I’m autistic?

    • LOL: Coemgen
    • Replies: @JimDandy
    @Ghost of Bull Moose

    I wonder how much those stats would change if they were told: "Your life depends on getting this answer right."

    Replies: @Paleo Liberal

  56. @Jack D
    @prosa123

    She was the granddaughter of Max Born and related to a bunch of other eminent German Jews as well on her mother's side.

    Replies: @Intelligent Dasein

    I guaran-damn-tee you that nobody on this HBD-devoted blog ever done heard that before, so you’re not being at all pedantic for mentioning it now.

    Not. At all. Pedantic.

  57. OT FBI raiding Mar-A-Lago. We are a third world country.

  58. Anon[369] • Disclaimer says:
    @espantoon
    @J

    I appreciate Jack D's reply to J. However I must admit that it's all gibberish to me since elementary math 65 years ago. I have consistently scored at the top of verbal IQ or verbal intelligence, but the average Sub-Saharan goat herder would best me in math. People say that it's because I had bad teachers. Or maybe I'm just math dumb.

    Replies: @fnn, @Anon, @Dr. Doomngloom

    I appreciate Jack D’s reply to J. However I must admit that it’s all gibberish to me since elementary math 65 years ago. I have consistently scored at the top of verbal IQ or verbal intelligence, but the average Sub-Saharan goat herder would best me in math. People say that it’s because I had bad teachers. Or maybe I’m just math dumb.

    Don’t be intimidated, that’s probably the first equation Jack D has worked on since middle school.

    I take that back, he no doubt also uses an equation when he calculates how many comments he posts on Unz. x→∞

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Anon

    Probably the 1st that I worked on since my kids were in school. But it's like riding a bike - it comes back to you ASSUMING that you learned it the 1st time.

    Replies: @Johann Ricke

  59. Why bother with superforecasting, probabilities, and statistics, when from Day 1 it was evident that this covid thing was a Mega-scam?

    The probability that a given virus will appear the same week in many different areas of the globe is virtually NULL

  60. Any of the Resident Autists here want to forecast that anything good is going to come out of this:

    Amazon Buys Roomba Company, Will Now Map Inside of Your House

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/y3pp8y/amazon-buys-roomba-company-will-now-map-inside-of-your-house

    Who are the morons who go along with this shit?

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @Bill Jones

    Is this worse than that Amazon Viewscreen that's always listening to you?

    Replies: @Bill Jones

  61. @Dutch Boy
    The DSM-5 (2013) folded the previous disorder called Asperger's Syndrome into the generic disorder category Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD), along with the old Pervasive Development Disorders (PDDs). ASD has relentlessly increased in incidence for about the last thirty years to where about 5% of boys now bear an ASD diagnosis (boys are about 4X more likely than girls to get this diagnosis). The health [sic] authorities seem to be unconcerned about this trend, which normal people would properly consider a national disaster. They are getting their knickers in a twist about monkeypox instead, a disease that affects a relatively small number of perverts and can be easily avoided by not being a pervert.

    Replies: @Travis

    while autism cases have increased mental retardation cases have declined. As the number of autistic cases increases we see a corresponding decline in the number of mentally retarded children. Back in 1975 almost 4% of children were classified as mentally retarded. Today just 1% of children are identified as retarded. Much of the decline in the number of mentally retarded children is due to the increase in autism diagnosis.

    • Replies: @Unintended Consequence
    @Travis

    Do you have research on this? Another possibility is a greater understanding of things like learning disabilities and better testing methods. In previous generations, I'd think a child who couldn't keep up in school might be labeled as retarded when they were perhaps dyslexic but otherwise of normal IQ.

    , @ForeverCARealist
    @Travis

    The diagnoses are necessary, but they need to be more specific. If "retarded" has become insulting, then let's find something else to call those people. "Autistic" can mean just nerdy, or it can mean barely functional. It's almost worthless without a longer conversation.

    I have two relatives who are labelled autistic. One is a nerdy, brilliant engineer with a great job, the other lives in his own world of babble and will never be anything but a big 7 year old his whole life. They're related so there's obviously something in the genes, but giving them the same diagnosis is ridiculous.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    , @Dutch Boy
    @Travis

    This is a false Pharma talking point. The MIND Institute in California disproved this years ago. The symptoms of autism are significantly different than those of generic mental retardation (autism is diagnosed by symptoms, there are no proven lab tests).
    https://www.ageofautism.com/2009/01/uc-davis-mind-institute-study-shows-californias-autism-increase-not-due-to-better-counting-diagnosis.html

  62. @J.Ross
    ATTIS was the ancient Phrygian god of vegetation and consort of the great Mother of the Gods Kybele (Cybele). As punishment for his infidelity, the goddess drove him into a mad frenzy which caused him to castrate himself. Initiates into the eunuch-priesthood of Kybele, known as Gallai (Galli), re-enacted this myth with an act of self-castration.
    ------
    The story of the day, the week, and possibly the election, is the IRS Expansion Act. The Wall Street Journal has one (1) story about this on its landing page, and it's florid gushing about how millionaires who can already do whatever they want with their houses will have an easier time redecorating. This bill is a catastrophe and the only bright side is the anger we are already seeing.

    Replies: @Alden

    I’ve been reading about the vastly expanded IRS for about a week. I think everybody can relax. It’s probably nothing but an expanded federal welfare jobs programs for black women. Whose incompetency and laziness will allow taxpayers to evade and avoid more federal taxes than we do now.

    OT the obscenity FBI spent today, 8/8/22 searching Trump’s home Mar a lago.

    • Agree: J.Ross
  63. @Travis
    @Paul Mendez

    I still recall the first time I heard of autism. This was around 1988 when the film Rain Man was playing. In 1990 family friend informed us that their child was autistic. My father thought they said artistic at first, then when he met the child he told me the kid was retarded and they wanted everyone to think he was autistic because it sounded better than retarded. I think my father was correct. People would rather have an "autistic" child than a "retarded" child.

    This helps explain why the number of children diagnosed as retarded fell rapidly from 1990 to 2010 as the number of children diagnosed as autistic soared. Most of the children diagnosed as autistic would have been classified as retarded in the 1980s. "mentally retarded" became passe and is now considered demeaning, much like the terms idiot, imbecile and moron — once used by doctors to describe varying degrees of mental retardation. In contrast, autism has become culturally acceptable — and a ticket to a larger range of school services and accommodations.

    Replies: @prosa123, @That one comment, @Clyde

    People would rather have an “autistic” child than a “retarded” child.
    This helps explain why the number of children diagnosed as retarded fell rapidly from 1990 to 2010 as the number of children diagnosed as autistic soared. Most of the children diagnosed as autistic would have been classified as retarded in the 1980s.

    Another reason for the decline in mental retardation is prenatal testing for Down Syndrome. It is partially offset, however, by higher survival rates for babies born extremely prematurely, who often have mental disabilities.

  64. Sadly for Chekhov, he had autistic traits in one field that is very important to non-autists, sexual relations. At least that is what I read from a semi-reliable source.

    In a letter to a friend (or in a reported conversation), he admitted, with no pride at all, and actually with great sadness, that he was afflicted with the problem a male cheetah is reputed to have – once the male cheetah has mated with a female cheetah, the poor creature never again can have sexual interest in that specific female cheetah.

    Really good writer, though, and his prose style, while written in a language that is long gone from the face of the earth and which can only be appreciated in the present day by very few, was near the best among all the prose styles that have survived to the present day.

  65. @J

    ‘A bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?’, with the correct answer being 5 cents rather than 10 cents".

     

    Could someone explain it to this cognitively challenged commenter?

    Replies: @The Alarmist, @J.Ross, @Jack D, @Reg Cæsar, @espantoon, @Anonymous, @Anonymous, @ThreeCranes

    Let cost of bat be B.

    Let cost of ball be b.

    equation (1). B + b = 1.10

    equation (2). b + 1.00 = B

    rearrange 2nd equation by substracting B from both sides

    (2). b + 1.00 – B = B – B

    (2). b + 1.00 – B = 0

    rearrange by subtracting 1.00 from both sides

    (2). b – B = -1.00

    Now add (1) and (2)

    (B + b) + (b – B) = 1.10 – 1.00

    2b = 0.10

    b = 0.05

    So, substituting into either equation

    (1). B + b = 1.10

    B + 0.05 = 1.10

    B = 1.10 – 0.05

    B = 1.05

  66. @Travis
    @Paul Mendez

    I still recall the first time I heard of autism. This was around 1988 when the film Rain Man was playing. In 1990 family friend informed us that their child was autistic. My father thought they said artistic at first, then when he met the child he told me the kid was retarded and they wanted everyone to think he was autistic because it sounded better than retarded. I think my father was correct. People would rather have an "autistic" child than a "retarded" child.

    This helps explain why the number of children diagnosed as retarded fell rapidly from 1990 to 2010 as the number of children diagnosed as autistic soared. Most of the children diagnosed as autistic would have been classified as retarded in the 1980s. "mentally retarded" became passe and is now considered demeaning, much like the terms idiot, imbecile and moron — once used by doctors to describe varying degrees of mental retardation. In contrast, autism has become culturally acceptable — and a ticket to a larger range of school services and accommodations.

    Replies: @prosa123, @That one comment, @Clyde

    This helps explain why the number of children diagnosed as retarded fell rapidly from 1990 to 2010 as the number of children diagnosed as autistic soared.

    It’s also incorrect. The number of children diagnosed with mental retardation/IDD did not decrease. In fact, it has increased by a hundred percent since 2000, at least judging from those stats that I could gather. Considering comorbidity patterns between autism and mental retardation, I was under the impression that the ratio has mostly become stable by 2005, meaning that the push to shoehorn MR/IDD into autism must have been completed by then. More or less also coinciding with the time when we had that big autism hysteria thing going on. Surely not an ineffective way of establishing a market, including your aforementioned school services and accommodations, of course provided by for-profit companies subsidized by the federal government.

  67. @prosa123
    OT: Olivia Newton-John just died.

    Replies: @Jack D, @Jenner Ickham Errican

    White Magic

    Black Magic

  68. @George
    Is the super forecaster phenomenon a statistical trick? Regularly people predict the PowerBall lottery, even though that seems impossible and win small fortunes. Some super forecasters even have won multiple times, I believe.

    Lottery super forecasters:

    Top 10 Lottery Winners Who Have Won Multiple Times
    https://themillionairepost.com/lottery-winners-most-wins/

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    The majority of Powerball winners did not actually choose their numbers, they let the computer select the numbers. So the computers random number generator is a superior predictor of lottery numbers than the millions of humans who attempt to predict the lottery numbers.

  69. @SunBakedSuburb
    @Paul Mendez

    I would be worried if the school psychologist told me that my child had no invisible friends because those are the best friends. That's what I told him, even though I had no child attending his school.

    Replies: @Jimbo

    Jack Handy, is that you?

  70. @J.Ross
    OT not a fan (after she got big she went straight [straight?] untrammeled globohomo); but this is the best 70s imagery in a music video. This is a triumph. Normally it's easy to ignore What's Happening in pop music, but this was a rare case where I should've listened.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMWLX0KXwF4

    Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican

    This is a triumph. Normally it’s easy to ignore What’s Happening in pop music, but this was a rare case where I should’ve listened.

    Hate to bust anyone’s balls (who am I kidding?) but you need to read this:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-decline-of-capitalization/#comment-5351988 (#7)

  71. The explanation is very simple.

    Neurotypical human beings very strongly want to fit in with other human beings; they want to be liked. They spend a huge amount of effort being attuned to social cues and conforming to those cues.

    Human beings who care more about external reality than being liked are unusual. We have mean names for them: nerds, Aspergery, etc.

    But for obvious reasons, if you care more about external reality than fitting in socially, you are more likely to have an accurate understanding of external reality.

    • Replies: @S. Anonyia
    @PhysicistDave

    Your explanation would be simpler if you just stated there are conformists and non-conformists out there. No need to assign special pseudoscientific postmodern names for either group (neurotypical or aspie).

    Also I’m not a conformist myself but sometimes they are right and being liked does align with external reality.

    Replies: @PhysicistDave

  72. OT – Steve are you anywhere near Anne Heche’s really, terrible, very bad day?

    God have mercy.

    Women 1) really do not handle alcohol well, and 2) really need a strong, morally centered man in their lives.

    • Replies: @Alden
    @The Anti-Gnostic

    Moron check the DUI and car accidents due to drunken drivers statistics. Most DUIs and car accidents caused by drunks are men men men.
    And it’s obvious no woman has ever allowed you to touch her.

    UNZ.com. The refuge of every repressed gay disgusting old creepy perv woman hater no woman has ever let near her.

    Replies: @The Anti-Gnostic

  73. @Paleo Liberal
    It takes all kinds.

    Evolution of humans depended on how well a particular tribe survived. If my tribe survives and yours does not, my tribe’s village idiot fares better than the strongest and smartest member of your tribe.

    Some of the “divergent” mindsets are good for survival of a tribe. For example, field anthropologists or zoologists once tried treating monkeys for depression. The communities suffered. It turns out depressed monkeys go to the edge of the community to be alone, and therefore are the first to see dangerous situations, such as a lion.

    I strongly believe that having a few unusual types is necessary for a society, but having too many causes it to collapse. A few mildly autistic people probably strengthen a society. An entire society of autistic people would collapse.

    I also believe primitive societies got some benefit from depressives, artistic types, homosexuals, etc. but an entire society of such people wouldn’t last long.

    It is similar to sickle cell trait in Africa. Too little and the village is wiped out by malaria. Too much and the village is wiped out by anemia.

    Edit to add: I will point out that conquering tribes often took the more useful members of the conquered tribes as immigrants. This could be seen by the way the US and the USSR had lists of German scientists they wanted at the end of the war, so prominent scientists would often flee west to surrender to American forces.

    Replies: @Thea, @AndrewR, @SFG, @PhysicistDave, @slumber_j

    Paleo Liberal wrote:

    Evolution of humans depended on how well a particular tribe survived. If my tribe survives and yours does not, my tribe’s village idiot fares better than the strongest and smartest member of your tribe.

    Some of the “divergent” mindsets are good for survival of a tribe.

    You are basically making an argument for what is known as “group selection.” Extensive studies have been made of this, and selection at the level of the individual (more precisely the individual gene) tends to overwhelm group selection — the “selfish gene” and all that.

    The classic text is Williams’ Adaptation and Natural Selection, popularized of course by Dawkins in The Selfish Gene and other books.

    And, yes, I know that countless efforts have been made to refute selfish-gene theory: none really works.

  74. @Athena
    To know more about autism (picture thinkers like Gates or Tesla, word-fact thinkers, and pattern thinkers), please read Temple Grandin's books or watch her videos.


    She was diagnosed with autism at about 40 years old by neurologist Oliver Sacks. Sacks fascinating works were initially based (in part) on those of Russian neuropsychologist Alexander Luria, and for autism on those of Leo Kanner and Hans Asperger.

    Silicon Valley is filled with Aspies (usually picture thinkers). Grandin, in her books, says she's able to predict whether a complex machine or system will work or be a complete disaster long before it's actually implemented. Because she ''sees'' the whole system operating in detail while it's being designed, and is infuriated when engineers don't immediately see and correct basic errors which they discover only too late.


    https://www.templegrandin.com/


    https://youtu.be/MWePrOuSeSY

    https://youtu.be/FST243lDYRQ


    ''Neurological patients, Oliver Sacks has written, are travellers to unimaginable lands. An Anthropologist on Mars offers portraits of seven such travellers– including a surgeon consumed by the compulsive tics of Tourette’s Syndrome except when he is operating; an artist who loses all sense of color in a car accident, but finds a new sensibility and creative power in black and white; and an autistic professor who has great difficulty deciphering the simplest social exchange between humans, but has built a career out of her intuitive understanding of animal behavior.''

    https://www.oliversacks.com/oliver-sacks-books/an-anthropologist-on-mars/

    Replies: @PhysicistDave

    Athena wrote:

    Because she ”sees” the whole system operating in detail while it’s being designed, and is infuriated when engineers don’t immediately see and correct basic errors which they discover only too late.

    That’s the difference between good and not-so-good engineers.

    The good ones do “see” the system. Of course, this can make it hard for them to communicate to those who cannot “see” it.

  75. Anonymous[233] • Disclaimer says:
    @nebulafox
    Before it also became code for "male personality which educrat or HR drone type dislikes" or "spoiled, dysfunctional child who parents want a medical diagnosis for".

    Replies: @Anonymous

    Right, what’s the difference between an autist and an asshole?

    At my school, selfish anti-social kids got their asses kicked. They weren’t treated as victims of illness.

  76. @Ghost of Bull Moose
    Honestly, I find it hard to believe that "most people" get the bat and ball question wrong.

    Anyway, I knew this post was going to lead into a panhandle. Does this mean I'm autistic?

    Replies: @JimDandy

    I wonder how much those stats would change if they were told: “Your life depends on getting this answer right.”

    • Replies: @Paleo Liberal
    @JimDandy

    I once worked at a place where they only hired people who got that question right.

    Our lives didn’t depend on getting the answer right. Only our jobs.

  77. @JimDandy
    @Ghost of Bull Moose

    I wonder how much those stats would change if they were told: "Your life depends on getting this answer right."

    Replies: @Paleo Liberal

    I once worked at a place where they only hired people who got that question right.

    Our lives didn’t depend on getting the answer right. Only our jobs.

  78. @Bill Jones
    Any of the Resident Autists here want to forecast that anything good is going to come out of this:

    Amazon Buys Roomba Company, Will Now Map Inside of Your House
     
    https://www.vice.com/en/article/y3pp8y/amazon-buys-roomba-company-will-now-map-inside-of-your-house


    Who are the morons who go along with this shit?

    Replies: @J.Ross

    Is this worse than that Amazon Viewscreen that’s always listening to you?

    • Replies: @Bill Jones
    @J.Ross

    It's just one more step. I guess the upside is that the Swat team will know where the dog sleeps.

  79. @The Anti-Gnostic
    OT - Steve are you anywhere near Anne Heche's really, terrible, very bad day?

    God have mercy.

    Women 1) really do not handle alcohol well, and 2) really need a strong, morally centered man in their lives.

    Replies: @Alden

    Moron check the DUI and car accidents due to drunken drivers statistics. Most DUIs and car accidents caused by drunks are men men men.
    And it’s obvious no woman has ever allowed you to touch her.

    UNZ.com. The refuge of every repressed gay disgusting old creepy perv woman hater no woman has ever let near her.

    • Replies: @The Anti-Gnostic
    @Alden

    I'm near plenty of women. My statement stands and doesn't preclude any criticisms of men in this society. Alcohol hits women much harder and earlier in the round, and men occupy a big psychic space in their heads. When a good man's not in there, they go crazy. I'm seeing this all around me.

    Replies: @Unintended Consequence, @Alden, @Corvinus

  80. @Anon
    I don’t think there’s a strong connection between autism and being good forecasters

    Successful business people are very good forecasters; it’s almost by definition. But if you reflect on successful business people, such as Trump, and even others you have come in contact with, most of them don’t seem autistic. I’ll even submit that of the group of business people who have a net worth over a million, there are more non autists than autists.

    Replies: @Alden, @Bill Jones

    People who really truly actually have been diagnosed with true autism have enormous difficulties holding down any kind of job or stable living situation. Even when their rent is paid every month by family or some government disability program.

    They can hardly forecast a week’s worth of groceries. Let alone next Christmas’ best selling toy, or other consumer trends. Or wars inflation deflation interest rates or anything at all.

    Too many fools have been tossing the word autism around for too many decades. What was once diagnosed as chronic undifferentiated schizophrenia is now diagnosed as on the autism spectrum

    • Agree: S. Anonyia
    • Replies: @S. Anonyia
    @Alden

    Referring to anyone remotely nonconformist, obsessive, or quirky as “autistic” is just another variation of everyone thinking they are chosen ones with special powers. Main character syndrome.

    People are acting like there isn’t a range of personality traits lol.

    Replies: @middle-aged vet

  81. @AndrewR
    @Paleo Liberal

    Speaking of tribes, a prominent member of the American White tribe just resigned his job after 23 years because he uttered a word that some members of the American Black tribe might pretend to find offensive

    Absolutely cowardly behavior.

    https://www.oklahoman.com/story/sports/college/ou/2022/08/08/cale-gundy-coach-oklahoma-twitter-sooners-football-news/65395525007/

    Replies: @Alden

    The coach was talking to the players and told them to take notes on their IPads . So they did. And the coach read aloud the notes one player made. The black player wrote the N word and the coach read it aloud.

    Talking to the players, giving a lesson teaching about football? I don’t know what the correct term for coaches lessons to the players. Whatever, it was a black player who wrote the N word. And nothing will happen to that player who wrote the word.

    Sometimes I’m ashamed to be White. What’s wrong with us? And why are race realist men still worshipping the Black Gods of football?

  82. Anonymous[954] • Disclaimer says:

    In other news, we’re going to die… aren’t we…

    • Thanks: Alden
  83. @Jack D
    @Larry, San Francisco

    That was actually a deceptively hard problem and a lot of smart people got it wrong. At first glance, it seems impossible that some external event (opening door #3) could change the probability of whether you picked the right door or not retrospectively.

    The easy way to understand it is to imagine that instead of 3 doors, imagine that it's a deck of 52 cards and you are supposed to pick the Ace of Spades. When you make your first guess, there's a 1 in 52 chance that you picked the Ace. Then Monty shows you 50 of the cards, none of which is an Ace of Spades and 1 hidden card. The odds that the Ace is among that group of 51 cards is 51/52 and now you know that it's not any of the other 50 cards he just showed you, the odds that the hidden card is the Ace of Spades are STILL 51/52.

    What throws people off is that there are only 3 doors. If you increase the # of doors/cards it becomes easy to understand.

    Replies: @AnotherDad

    Jack, that’s a very good example for explaining this.

    One of the things that is very helpful for analyzing a lot of things, is to go ahead and push the logic/math out to one end or another (scale, time, etc.) to see what’s actually going on. For many cases that’s enough to figure out if an idea or policy really makes any sense at all. It often does not.

    But, in fairness, one of the other things going on that make this difficult for people is the human angle. People think “Is Monty’s trying to screw me, make a fool out of me?” This is not unreasonable, and if you don’t know Monty’s shtick, it makes a lot of sense to stick. “I gotta a 1/3 chance, you can’t take that away from me.” It’s only when you know that Monty’s offer is programmatic–he doesn’t just do it if you’ve got the right door, he does it all the time–that people can put aside their “what’s the con” thinking and just do the math.

  84. @J.Ross
    @Bill Jones

    Is this worse than that Amazon Viewscreen that's always listening to you?

    Replies: @Bill Jones

    It’s just one more step. I guess the upside is that the Swat team will know where the dog sleeps.

  85. @Anon
    I don’t think there’s a strong connection between autism and being good forecasters

    Successful business people are very good forecasters; it’s almost by definition. But if you reflect on successful business people, such as Trump, and even others you have come in contact with, most of them don’t seem autistic. I’ll even submit that of the group of business people who have a net worth over a million, there are more non autists than autists.

    Replies: @Alden, @Bill Jones

    When I was Private Bankstering a fair proportion of clients were successful business people (the rest were old money and political filth) because I was the Derivatives guy, my clients (And they needed \$20 million net worth) tended toward the bit Nerdy and those interested in bragging rights among their peers on the latest cool new financial thing they found. Never saw one who I classify as autistic. I guess the people skills was a greater driver of success.

  86. @epebble
    @Hodag

    The Top 7 countries in deaths per million population are:

    1. Peru
    2. Bulgaria
    3. Bosnia
    4. Hungary
    5. North Macedonia
    6. Montenegro
    7. Georgia

    My guess is nobody would have come up with list in 2020.

    Replies: @Bardon Kaldian, @Hodag

    I certainly did not at the time. In order to be in the top deathrate countries the reporting needs to be honest, there should be some altitude, and I think the population must be older and fatter. But all of this is in retrospect. I expected Germany to do better, and it was early. Did not take eastern Germany into account. Ireland of all things did ok. India cooked the books.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Hodag

    "there should be some altitude,"

    Old people at altitude have a harder time breathing?

  87. @djdj
    I don't know whether they are autists or not, but the peepee pants boys at slatestarcodex believed that covid would end the world and their hyperventilation was the male match to the nearly universal female panic which helped set the world ablaze.

    Granted, our host did not cover himself in glory at that time as he tried to figure out how to close a faucet without needing to wash his hands again, but he didn't promote panic beginning in January and he kept his manias to himself and even started sharing Ionnidas and such very early on. The bedwetting boys in the slatestarcodex community - which extends quite far - predicted the end of the world and then did all that they could to push it.

    Razib Khan embarrassed himself terribly and has yet to wash himself of his errors. I hold few people's intuitions about societies as highly as I hold of Razib's, but being a daddy broke his sense and he went 100% cookoo, buying rooms full of toilet paper and masking, etc. Which just goes to show that nobody's perfect I guess.

    Replies: @ScarletNumber

    I don’t know whether they are autists or not, but the peepee pants boys at slatestarcodex

    Really? SSC and ACX are autist central. Go read their subreddit for further evidence

  88. @Jack D
    @J

    The bat costs $1.05 and the balls costs $.05 so added together they cost $1.10 and the bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. If the ball costs $.10 and the total is $1.10, the bat costs $1.00 and the difference is only $.90 so that's the wrong answer.

    If you can't reach this result with simple logic, it's easy to solve algebraically. Let's do it in pennies so you don't have to deal with decimals:

    X + Y = 110
    X = Y + 100

    substituting

    Y + 100 +Y = 110
    2Y = 10
    Y = 5, X= 105

    Replies: @clifford brown, @J

    Thanks. It is not obvious.

  89. @J

    ‘A bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?’, with the correct answer being 5 cents rather than 10 cents"
     
    Someone pls. explain it to stupid me.

    Replies: @Maciano

    1) a = b + 1
    2) y = a + b & y = 1,10
    3) 1,10 = (b+1) + b
    4) 2b = 0,10 => b = 0,05 => a = 0,05 + 1 = 1,05

  90. @espantoon
    @J

    I appreciate Jack D's reply to J. However I must admit that it's all gibberish to me since elementary math 65 years ago. I have consistently scored at the top of verbal IQ or verbal intelligence, but the average Sub-Saharan goat herder would best me in math. People say that it's because I had bad teachers. Or maybe I'm just math dumb.

    Replies: @fnn, @Anon, @Dr. Doomngloom

    A more natural way to think of the algebra is the ball costs. “X”, the bat a dollar more “ x +1.00) the total is 1.10 x +(x+1.0) = 1.10. (Ball +Bat) =\$1.10

    Or 2*x = .1. , x=.05

    I didn’t do the algebra though, i started at bat =1.0 ball =.1. , obviously doesnt add up, so adjust the ball down by half the variance. Now it works.

  91. @Alden
    @The Anti-Gnostic

    Moron check the DUI and car accidents due to drunken drivers statistics. Most DUIs and car accidents caused by drunks are men men men.
    And it’s obvious no woman has ever allowed you to touch her.

    UNZ.com. The refuge of every repressed gay disgusting old creepy perv woman hater no woman has ever let near her.

    Replies: @The Anti-Gnostic

    I’m near plenty of women. My statement stands and doesn’t preclude any criticisms of men in this society. Alcohol hits women much harder and earlier in the round, and men occupy a big psychic space in their heads. When a good man’s not in there, they go crazy. I’m seeing this all around me.

    • Replies: @Unintended Consequence
    @The Anti-Gnostic

    Maybe you could start a volunteer organization, a sort of big brother/family patriarch to lord-it-over, er, give guidance to past-their-expiration-date single women who've succumbed to addiction or who simply don't measure up according to a bunch of nerdy males who'd otherwise just waste hours on the alpha nerd's blog ...

    Replies: @The Anti-Gnostic

    , @Alden
    @The Anti-Gnostic

    Check the statistics about DUIs and drunken drivers causing accidents. Lots more men than women. Both in actual numbers and percentage.

    So you claim the women you know are degenerate alcoholics. Your choice.

    , @Corvinus
    @The Anti-Gnostic

    “My statement stands”

    On shaky ground.

    Men are more likely than women to use almost all types of illicit drugs, and illicit drug use is more likely to result in emergency department visits or overdose deaths for men than for women. "Illicit" refers to use of illegal drugs, including marijuana (according to federal law) and misuse of prescription drugs. For most age groups, men have higher rates of use or dependence on illicit drugs and alcohol than do women. However, women are just as likely as men to develop a substance use disorder. In addition, women may be more susceptible to craving and relapse, which are key phases of the addiction cycle.

    Men are more likely than women to drink excessively. Excessive drinking is associated with significant risks to men’s health and safety, and the risks increase with the amount of alcohol consumed. Men are also more likely than women to take other risks (such as misusing other substances, having multiple sex partners, or not wearing a seat belt), that when combined with alcohol, further increase their risk of illness, injury or death.

    Replies: @The Anti-Gnostic

  92. The consequences of the Mar-a-lago raid will be______.

    Fill in the blank

  93. @Hodag
    I was part of Tetlock's first forecasting tournament. I ended up dropping out because it was a huge time suck and I had babies in the house. I would also bother my friends texting them questions in their field of expertise at all hours.

    I also did the COVID tournament for a couple months. I did not bother my friends for this one. A lot of this was predicting COVID rates in various countries. I just relied on national stereotypes (Japan was going to do ok, Russia and India will be disasters). I was in the top 30 in the world until I dropped out after losing interest.

    Replies: @The Alarmist, @epebble, @katesisco

    Rhinelander was my home until my husband and I built a new home at 4187 tails End Road. The social worker I saw used coercive hypnosis, end result being the community used former friend Gene Prime, VP Merchants State Bank, understandably now defunct, to take the house from us when it was completely livable after telling my husband he could not do body work in the drive in basement.
    The house plan was WI AG EXT blueprint, never returned after submission to county. The comment made was it was ‘dated’ which they cured by removing inner walls and adding cabinetry. The house was renumbered to 4189, removing thermopile windows and substituting double hung, outside trim to alter the \$50,000 mortgage to \$250,000 after using it as an Air B&B rental.
    We were driven out as to accumulate negative history, and allow the truth to fade. Many decades of homelessness followed, no security for me or for my brain injured son and the grandchildren lacking education. My husband was harassed to death at 8783 Frank Dr, a junk highway removal metal building altered to a large storage building with funds from our home after his death. All done in a community where we were known for work and family. Shame on the power structure that engineered this parasitism!!

  94. @Paul Mendez

    but then Herr Asperger got canceled for being a Nazi, so now we are back to using autism for a vast range of capabilities
     
    Asperger’s was removed from the the DSM because there was no clinical agreement as to what it was or how to diagnose it, apart from autism.

    A school psychologist told me that when parents were worried their child had no friends, if he said, “That’s because he’s a weirdo and nobody likes weirdos” he’d be fired.

    But if he said the student had autism, that would terrify the parents. They’d immediately imagine their child needing institutional care.

    So he’d diagnose Asperger’s. Something they could read a few books about and manage, like a food allergy.

    Replies: @SunBakedSuburb, @Travis, @AnotherDad, @Unintended Consequence

    Kanners is the name for high-functioning autism.

  95. @Paleo Liberal
    It takes all kinds.

    Evolution of humans depended on how well a particular tribe survived. If my tribe survives and yours does not, my tribe’s village idiot fares better than the strongest and smartest member of your tribe.

    Some of the “divergent” mindsets are good for survival of a tribe. For example, field anthropologists or zoologists once tried treating monkeys for depression. The communities suffered. It turns out depressed monkeys go to the edge of the community to be alone, and therefore are the first to see dangerous situations, such as a lion.

    I strongly believe that having a few unusual types is necessary for a society, but having too many causes it to collapse. A few mildly autistic people probably strengthen a society. An entire society of autistic people would collapse.

    I also believe primitive societies got some benefit from depressives, artistic types, homosexuals, etc. but an entire society of such people wouldn’t last long.

    It is similar to sickle cell trait in Africa. Too little and the village is wiped out by malaria. Too much and the village is wiped out by anemia.

    Edit to add: I will point out that conquering tribes often took the more useful members of the conquered tribes as immigrants. This could be seen by the way the US and the USSR had lists of German scientists they wanted at the end of the war, so prominent scientists would often flee west to surrender to American forces.

    Replies: @Thea, @AndrewR, @SFG, @PhysicistDave, @slumber_j

    It takes all kinds.

    Yes, and the kind of people who did something like Forecasting in the olden days were called Futurists (not as in Marinetti’s Manifesto of Futurism, which is awesome, but as in Alvin Toffler and his ilk). They always struck me as charismatic speaking-circuit meta-bullshitter types–which doesn’t mean they were necessarily wrong, but that they were necessarily sort of anti-spergs.

    In the 1990s my then mother-in-law sold her very nice house in Carmona, Spain, a beautiful minor city outside Seville, to an allegedly noted French futurist: Carmona is convenient to the Seville airport, and he needed to be able to jet around freely in order to keep impressing important people and making I assume huge wads of money. I never met him, but my sense is that he was very much a swashbuckling Bernard-Henri Lévy type rather than an off-duty coder keeping abreast of minor conflicts around the world and the price of yttrium and whatever.

  96. @Anon
    @espantoon


    I appreciate Jack D’s reply to J. However I must admit that it’s all gibberish to me since elementary math 65 years ago. I have consistently scored at the top of verbal IQ or verbal intelligence, but the average Sub-Saharan goat herder would best me in math. People say that it’s because I had bad teachers. Or maybe I’m just math dumb.
     
    Don’t be intimidated, that’s probably the first equation Jack D has worked on since middle school.

    I take that back, he no doubt also uses an equation when he calculates how many comments he posts on Unz. x→∞

    Replies: @Jack D

    Probably the 1st that I worked on since my kids were in school. But it’s like riding a bike – it comes back to you ASSUMING that you learned it the 1st time.

    • Agree: Johann Ricke
    • Replies: @Johann Ricke
    @Jack D


    Probably the 1st that I worked on since my kids were in school. But it’s like riding a bike – it comes back to you ASSUMING that you learned it the 1st time.
     
    Indeed. Algebra ain't differential equations.
  97. @Travis
    @Dutch Boy

    while autism cases have increased mental retardation cases have declined. As the number of autistic cases increases we see a corresponding decline in the number of mentally retarded children. Back in 1975 almost 4% of children were classified as mentally retarded. Today just 1% of children are identified as retarded. Much of the decline in the number of mentally retarded children is due to the increase in autism diagnosis.

    Replies: @Unintended Consequence, @ForeverCARealist, @Dutch Boy

    Do you have research on this? Another possibility is a greater understanding of things like learning disabilities and better testing methods. In previous generations, I’d think a child who couldn’t keep up in school might be labeled as retarded when they were perhaps dyslexic but otherwise of normal IQ.

  98. @Travis
    @Dutch Boy

    while autism cases have increased mental retardation cases have declined. As the number of autistic cases increases we see a corresponding decline in the number of mentally retarded children. Back in 1975 almost 4% of children were classified as mentally retarded. Today just 1% of children are identified as retarded. Much of the decline in the number of mentally retarded children is due to the increase in autism diagnosis.

    Replies: @Unintended Consequence, @ForeverCARealist, @Dutch Boy

    The diagnoses are necessary, but they need to be more specific. If “retarded” has become insulting, then let’s find something else to call those people. “Autistic” can mean just nerdy, or it can mean barely functional. It’s almost worthless without a longer conversation.

    I have two relatives who are labelled autistic. One is a nerdy, brilliant engineer with a great job, the other lives in his own world of babble and will never be anything but a big 7 year old his whole life. They’re related so there’s obviously something in the genes, but giving them the same diagnosis is ridiculous.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @ForeverCARealist

    Calling the nerd with the great job an Asperger while the poor retarded guy an autist seemed useful. But lately the Asperger label has been cancelled so people now use autist for both.

    Me and Orwell are in agreement: abolishing words is bad.

    Replies: @Dumbo, @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

  99. @The Anti-Gnostic
    @Alden

    I'm near plenty of women. My statement stands and doesn't preclude any criticisms of men in this society. Alcohol hits women much harder and earlier in the round, and men occupy a big psychic space in their heads. When a good man's not in there, they go crazy. I'm seeing this all around me.

    Replies: @Unintended Consequence, @Alden, @Corvinus

    Maybe you could start a volunteer organization, a sort of big brother/family patriarch to lord-it-over, er, give guidance to past-their-expiration-date single women who’ve succumbed to addiction or who simply don’t measure up according to a bunch of nerdy males who’d otherwise just waste hours on the alpha nerd’s blog …

    • Thanks: Alden
    • Replies: @The Anti-Gnostic
    @Unintended Consequence

    Maybe I will. I'm getting practice with female family and friends and their poor life choices. I also don't disagree that good men are hard to find.

    Replies: @Alden, @Art Deco

  100. @ForeverCARealist
    @Travis

    The diagnoses are necessary, but they need to be more specific. If "retarded" has become insulting, then let's find something else to call those people. "Autistic" can mean just nerdy, or it can mean barely functional. It's almost worthless without a longer conversation.

    I have two relatives who are labelled autistic. One is a nerdy, brilliant engineer with a great job, the other lives in his own world of babble and will never be anything but a big 7 year old his whole life. They're related so there's obviously something in the genes, but giving them the same diagnosis is ridiculous.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    Calling the nerd with the great job an Asperger while the poor retarded guy an autist seemed useful. But lately the Asperger label has been cancelled so people now use autist for both.

    Me and Orwell are in agreement: abolishing words is bad.

    • Replies: @Dumbo
    @Steve Sailer

    Why would they cancel Asperger?

    "Retarded" is a bad word/diagnostic because it doesn't really say much (except implying lower IQ).

    "Autistic" is not very good either, to be honest, just a bit better. It doesn't sound offensive, but you need something more precise. Is there some sort of autism scale, similar to an IQ scale?

    Asperger's was always considered the lower part of the autistic spectrum. I didn't know it was "cancelled".

    Replies: @Stan Adams, @PhysicistDave

    , @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @Steve Sailer

    True....they never should have cancelled the medical terms of Retarded, idiot, moron and imbecile.

    Idiot was a more useful description of for most autistic children than the term autistic , which does not convey much useful information. If a boy has an IQ of 60 and is non-verbal the term idiot or mentally retarded is a more accurate description than the generic label of autistic. If someone tells me their child is autistic it gives me no useful information. The child is probably retarded but he could be non-verbal with an IQ of 80 or he could have an IQ of 120 and be a typical nerd.

  101. @Unintended Consequence
    @The Anti-Gnostic

    Maybe you could start a volunteer organization, a sort of big brother/family patriarch to lord-it-over, er, give guidance to past-their-expiration-date single women who've succumbed to addiction or who simply don't measure up according to a bunch of nerdy males who'd otherwise just waste hours on the alpha nerd's blog ...

    Replies: @The Anti-Gnostic

    Maybe I will. I’m getting practice with female family and friends and their poor life choices. I also don’t disagree that good men are hard to find.

    • Replies: @Alden
    @The Anti-Gnostic

    You come from a family of alcoholics and your friends are alcoholics. You need to find some new friends. As for your family, well, many people have the alcoholic family problem.

    Replies: @Clyde

    , @Art Deco
    @The Anti-Gnostic

    I'm going to disagree with you. Troubled women are attracted to trouble. It would help some of them to have a non-troubled male in their home, but non-troubled males have other things to do with their lives and troubled women are not usually interested in non troubled men.

    Replies: @Alden

  102. @Hodag
    @epebble

    I certainly did not at the time. In order to be in the top deathrate countries the reporting needs to be honest, there should be some altitude, and I think the population must be older and fatter. But all of this is in retrospect. I expected Germany to do better, and it was early. Did not take eastern Germany into account. Ireland of all things did ok. India cooked the books.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    “there should be some altitude,”

    Old people at altitude have a harder time breathing?

  103. @Steve Sailer
    @ForeverCARealist

    Calling the nerd with the great job an Asperger while the poor retarded guy an autist seemed useful. But lately the Asperger label has been cancelled so people now use autist for both.

    Me and Orwell are in agreement: abolishing words is bad.

    Replies: @Dumbo, @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    Why would they cancel Asperger?

    “Retarded” is a bad word/diagnostic because it doesn’t really say much (except implying lower IQ).

    “Autistic” is not very good either, to be honest, just a bit better. It doesn’t sound offensive, but you need something more precise. Is there some sort of autism scale, similar to an IQ scale?

    Asperger’s was always considered the lower part of the autistic spectrum. I didn’t know it was “cancelled”.

    • Replies: @Stan Adams
    @Dumbo

    Keeping up with the whims and vagaries of deranged woketards is a full-time job.

    , @PhysicistDave
    @Dumbo

    Dumbo asked:


    Asperger’s was always considered the lower part of the autistic spectrum. I didn’t know it was “cancelled”.
     
    I had a friend whose son was severely autistic.

    Putting him in the same category as, say, Bill Gates is not only highly misleading but risks confusing very serious medical issues.

    One key point: my friend's son did not enjoy the experience of being severely autistic: he basically could not communicate verbally, could not take care of himself on a daily basis physically, etc.

    He did not choose this. He was clearly very, very unhappy.

    On the other hand, Bill Gates is pretty obviously okay with who he is.

    I went to Caltech: most of the students were, in colloquial terms, "Aspergery" -- which did make it easy for me to get a couple of girlfriends among the tiny number of female students, since most of the males had no idea at all of how to deal with girls!

    Were these guys unhappy? Well, pretty clearly, most of them wished they were better at picking up girls.

    But on the whole, they were who they wanted to be. They did not really wish they had spent more time playing football, going to parties, etc. and less time learning about science.

    To view their situation as a medical condition makes no more sense than viewing the guys in high school who were star football players as having a medical condition (maybe call it "Brady's syndrome" in honor of Tom Brady?).

    I was on a friendly basis (though not super-close personal friends) with the stars of our football team. They liked being who they were. They did not want to be a nerd like me.

    And I was happy being a nerd. I did not want to be a jock like them.

    Which, I suppose, is why we actually rather liked and respected each other.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @The Anti-Gnostic

  104. @The Anti-Gnostic
    @Alden

    I'm near plenty of women. My statement stands and doesn't preclude any criticisms of men in this society. Alcohol hits women much harder and earlier in the round, and men occupy a big psychic space in their heads. When a good man's not in there, they go crazy. I'm seeing this all around me.

    Replies: @Unintended Consequence, @Alden, @Corvinus

    Check the statistics about DUIs and drunken drivers causing accidents. Lots more men than women. Both in actual numbers and percentage.

    So you claim the women you know are degenerate alcoholics. Your choice.

  105. @The Anti-Gnostic
    @Unintended Consequence

    Maybe I will. I'm getting practice with female family and friends and their poor life choices. I also don't disagree that good men are hard to find.

    Replies: @Alden, @Art Deco

    You come from a family of alcoholics and your friends are alcoholics. You need to find some new friends. As for your family, well, many people have the alcoholic family problem.

    • Replies: @Clyde
    @Alden


    You come from a family of alcoholics, and your friends are alcoholics.
     
    Sure beats a family of meth and oxy addicts. Your family, a family of chocoholics perhaps? That will rot your teeth like meth. You know why the Federal Gov't is so dysfunctional? Because 90% of the "workers" are on legal meds and illegal drugs. Plus how many are still shirking from home? Hiding out from the virus.x of the day, while getting paid?
    Today's ultra strong cannabis and THC sold legally is bad for your mind. Alex Berenson wrote a book on it.

    Tell Your Children: The Truth About Marijuana, Mental Illness, and Violence Hardcover – January 8, 2019
    by Alex Berenson (Author)
    4.7 out of 5 stars 1,132 ratings
     
  106. @Travis
    @Dutch Boy

    while autism cases have increased mental retardation cases have declined. As the number of autistic cases increases we see a corresponding decline in the number of mentally retarded children. Back in 1975 almost 4% of children were classified as mentally retarded. Today just 1% of children are identified as retarded. Much of the decline in the number of mentally retarded children is due to the increase in autism diagnosis.

    Replies: @Unintended Consequence, @ForeverCARealist, @Dutch Boy

    This is a false Pharma talking point. The MIND Institute in California disproved this years ago. The symptoms of autism are significantly different than those of generic mental retardation (autism is diagnosed by symptoms, there are no proven lab tests).
    https://www.ageofautism.com/2009/01/uc-davis-mind-institute-study-shows-californias-autism-increase-not-due-to-better-counting-diagnosis.html

  107. @The Anti-Gnostic
    @Alden

    I'm near plenty of women. My statement stands and doesn't preclude any criticisms of men in this society. Alcohol hits women much harder and earlier in the round, and men occupy a big psychic space in their heads. When a good man's not in there, they go crazy. I'm seeing this all around me.

    Replies: @Unintended Consequence, @Alden, @Corvinus

    “My statement stands”

    On shaky ground.

    Men are more likely than women to use almost all types of illicit drugs, and illicit drug use is more likely to result in emergency department visits or overdose deaths for men than for women. “Illicit” refers to use of illegal drugs, including marijuana (according to federal law) and misuse of prescription drugs. For most age groups, men have higher rates of use or dependence on illicit drugs and alcohol than do women. However, women are just as likely as men to develop a substance use disorder. In addition, women may be more susceptible to craving and relapse, which are key phases of the addiction cycle.

    Men are more likely than women to drink excessively. Excessive drinking is associated with significant risks to men’s health and safety, and the risks increase with the amount of alcohol consumed. Men are also more likely than women to take other risks (such as misusing other substances, having multiple sex partners, or not wearing a seat belt), that when combined with alcohol, further increase their risk of illness, injury or death.

    • Replies: @The Anti-Gnostic
    @Corvinus

    You're proving a different point. Women have much less alcohol dehydrogenase in their stomachs and livers.

    Replies: @Corvinus, @Alden

  108. @Steve Sailer
    @ForeverCARealist

    Calling the nerd with the great job an Asperger while the poor retarded guy an autist seemed useful. But lately the Asperger label has been cancelled so people now use autist for both.

    Me and Orwell are in agreement: abolishing words is bad.

    Replies: @Dumbo, @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    True….they never should have cancelled the medical terms of Retarded, idiot, moron and imbecile.

    Idiot was a more useful description of for most autistic children than the term autistic , which does not convey much useful information. If a boy has an IQ of 60 and is non-verbal the term idiot or mentally retarded is a more accurate description than the generic label of autistic. If someone tells me their child is autistic it gives me no useful information. The child is probably retarded but he could be non-verbal with an IQ of 80 or he could have an IQ of 120 and be a typical nerd.

  109. @Corvinus
    @The Anti-Gnostic

    “My statement stands”

    On shaky ground.

    Men are more likely than women to use almost all types of illicit drugs, and illicit drug use is more likely to result in emergency department visits or overdose deaths for men than for women. "Illicit" refers to use of illegal drugs, including marijuana (according to federal law) and misuse of prescription drugs. For most age groups, men have higher rates of use or dependence on illicit drugs and alcohol than do women. However, women are just as likely as men to develop a substance use disorder. In addition, women may be more susceptible to craving and relapse, which are key phases of the addiction cycle.

    Men are more likely than women to drink excessively. Excessive drinking is associated with significant risks to men’s health and safety, and the risks increase with the amount of alcohol consumed. Men are also more likely than women to take other risks (such as misusing other substances, having multiple sex partners, or not wearing a seat belt), that when combined with alcohol, further increase their risk of illness, injury or death.

    Replies: @The Anti-Gnostic

    You’re proving a different point. Women have much less alcohol dehydrogenase in their stomachs and livers.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    @The Anti-Gnostic

    Shocking that you are throwing out a red herring in shark infested waters.

    , @Alden
    @The Anti-Gnostic

    It’s true that women have less alcohol dehydrogenase. It’s true that women are smaller than men. It’s true that women’s kidneys and livers are smaller than men’s. It’s very true that women can’t drink as much as men can.

    But the fact remains that men are more likely to be drunks and more likely to get DUIs and cause car accidents caused by driving while drunk. Even with less alcohol dehydrogenase women are far less likely to be drunks than men and cause accidents while driving while drunk.

    Sensible mentally healthy people avoid drunks. Including stepping away from drunken relatives like parents as soon as possible Fools addicted to never ending family crises and psycho drama seek out drunks.

  110. @The Anti-Gnostic
    @Corvinus

    You're proving a different point. Women have much less alcohol dehydrogenase in their stomachs and livers.

    Replies: @Corvinus, @Alden

    Shocking that you are throwing out a red herring in shark infested waters.

  111. @PhysicistDave
    The explanation is very simple.

    Neurotypical human beings very strongly want to fit in with other human beings; they want to be liked. They spend a huge amount of effort being attuned to social cues and conforming to those cues.

    Human beings who care more about external reality than being liked are unusual. We have mean names for them: nerds, Aspergery, etc.

    But for obvious reasons, if you care more about external reality than fitting in socially, you are more likely to have an accurate understanding of external reality.

    Replies: @S. Anonyia

    Your explanation would be simpler if you just stated there are conformists and non-conformists out there. No need to assign special pseudoscientific postmodern names for either group (neurotypical or aspie).

    Also I’m not a conformist myself but sometimes they are right and being liked does align with external reality.

    • Replies: @PhysicistDave
    @S. Anonyia

    S. Anonyia wrote to me:


    Your explanation would be simpler if you just stated there are conformists and non-conformists out there. No need to assign special pseudoscientific postmodern names for either group (neurotypical or aspie).
     
    No, you're missing the point.

    "Nonconformist" can mean someone who wants to be different from others. In which case, they are actually being influenced by others, just in an opposite direction.

    I think we have all met such people.

    In their way, all Leftists are nonconformists in this sense: they are proud that they are not old-fashioned, ordinary, middle-class, Christian, bourgeois Americans.

    Of course, all Leftists are also conformists in another sense: conforming to whatever the current line of political correctness is. But almost none see themselves this way: in their own minds, they are freethinkers who do not think like Bubba out in flyover country.

    The point is whether you simply do not care about whether or not your views correspond to other people's view but rather do care if your views correspond to external reality.

    SA also wrote:

    Also I’m not a conformist myself but sometimes they are right and being liked does align with external reality.
     
    Well, only by dumb luck. The "wisdom of crowds" is nonsense. The "crowd" is only "wise" to the degree that they are thinking for themselves as individuals.

    Replies: @Anonymous

  112. @Alden
    @Anon

    People who really truly actually have been diagnosed with true autism have enormous difficulties holding down any kind of job or stable living situation. Even when their rent is paid every month by family or some government disability program.

    They can hardly forecast a week’s worth of groceries. Let alone next Christmas’ best selling toy, or other consumer trends. Or wars inflation deflation interest rates or anything at all.

    Too many fools have been tossing the word autism around for too many decades. What was once diagnosed as chronic undifferentiated schizophrenia is now diagnosed as on the autism spectrum

    Replies: @S. Anonyia

    Referring to anyone remotely nonconformist, obsessive, or quirky as “autistic” is just another variation of everyone thinking they are chosen ones with special powers. Main character syndrome.

    People are acting like there isn’t a range of personality traits lol.

    • Replies: @middle-aged vet
    @S. Anonyia

    You are of course correct, but the possibility has just occurred to me that you might not be aware who your likely audience is on comment threads like this.

  113. @The Anti-Gnostic
    @Corvinus

    You're proving a different point. Women have much less alcohol dehydrogenase in their stomachs and livers.

    Replies: @Corvinus, @Alden

    It’s true that women have less alcohol dehydrogenase. It’s true that women are smaller than men. It’s true that women’s kidneys and livers are smaller than men’s. It’s very true that women can’t drink as much as men can.

    But the fact remains that men are more likely to be drunks and more likely to get DUIs and cause car accidents caused by driving while drunk. Even with less alcohol dehydrogenase women are far less likely to be drunks than men and cause accidents while driving while drunk.

    Sensible mentally healthy people avoid drunks. Including stepping away from drunken relatives like parents as soon as possible Fools addicted to never ending family crises and psycho drama seek out drunks.

  114. K first chance is 1 UN 3
    second chance is 1 in 2 increases your chance of being right overall sticking decreases your chance of being wrong.
    so 15% (how did it change to15% war weird shenanigans is the browser playing?) Chance of being correct first guess 33%chance of being correct second time %50 plus 16.6666% is
    66%
    read all answers one hit the spot.

    as an example (browser did mot add a d to an there) say you subtract the 1 and leave 1 dollaridoo and 10 centsover subtract 1 cent from the cent pile and add it to the doĺarido pile giving 1.01 and the 9 cents closer. Repeat until
    \$1.05 And 5 cents is reached.

  115. @The Anti-Gnostic
    @Unintended Consequence

    Maybe I will. I'm getting practice with female family and friends and their poor life choices. I also don't disagree that good men are hard to find.

    Replies: @Alden, @Art Deco

    I’m going to disagree with you. Troubled women are attracted to trouble. It would help some of them to have a non-troubled male in their home, but non-troubled males have other things to do with their lives and troubled women are not usually interested in non troubled men.

    • Replies: @Alden
    @Art Deco

    Crazy likes crazy is ancient folk wisdom. And since anti agnostic knows so many alcoholic women we can assume he likes alcoholic women. Or being around them to “ save” them. Psychologists and counselors call it enabling. It’s supposed to be somewhat of a female trait because of maternal hormones.

  116. @Art Deco
    @The Anti-Gnostic

    I'm going to disagree with you. Troubled women are attracted to trouble. It would help some of them to have a non-troubled male in their home, but non-troubled males have other things to do with their lives and troubled women are not usually interested in non troubled men.

    Replies: @Alden

    Crazy likes crazy is ancient folk wisdom. And since anti agnostic knows so many alcoholic women we can assume he likes alcoholic women. Or being around them to “ save” them. Psychologists and counselors call it enabling. It’s supposed to be somewhat of a female trait because of maternal hormones.

  117. @Travis
    @Paul Mendez

    I still recall the first time I heard of autism. This was around 1988 when the film Rain Man was playing. In 1990 family friend informed us that their child was autistic. My father thought they said artistic at first, then when he met the child he told me the kid was retarded and they wanted everyone to think he was autistic because it sounded better than retarded. I think my father was correct. People would rather have an "autistic" child than a "retarded" child.

    This helps explain why the number of children diagnosed as retarded fell rapidly from 1990 to 2010 as the number of children diagnosed as autistic soared. Most of the children diagnosed as autistic would have been classified as retarded in the 1980s. "mentally retarded" became passe and is now considered demeaning, much like the terms idiot, imbecile and moron — once used by doctors to describe varying degrees of mental retardation. In contrast, autism has become culturally acceptable — and a ticket to a larger range of school services and accommodations.

    Replies: @prosa123, @That one comment, @Clyde

    “mentally retarded” became passe and is now considered demeaning, much like the terms idiot, imbecile and moron — once used by doctors to describe varying degrees of mental retardation. In contrast, autism has become culturally acceptable — and a ticket to a larger range of school services and accommodations.

    Also including Federale SS disability checks for these keeeds. A relative was a psychologist for the part of the urban school system where these 90% minority/black children were placed/warehoused. He was hounded by the parents to sign off on getting their autistic (formerly retarded) children gov’t checks. Also known as crazy checks. Maybe \$800 monthly (2009)

  118. @Alden
    @The Anti-Gnostic

    You come from a family of alcoholics and your friends are alcoholics. You need to find some new friends. As for your family, well, many people have the alcoholic family problem.

    Replies: @Clyde

    You come from a family of alcoholics, and your friends are alcoholics.

    Sure beats a family of meth and oxy addicts. Your family, a family of chocoholics perhaps? That will rot your teeth like meth. You know why the Federal Gov’t is so dysfunctional? Because 90% of the “workers” are on legal meds and illegal drugs. Plus how many are still shirking from home? Hiding out from the virus.x of the day, while getting paid?
    Today’s ultra strong cannabis and THC sold legally is bad for your mind. Alex Berenson wrote a book on it.

    Tell Your Children: The Truth About Marijuana, Mental Illness, and Violence Hardcover – January 8, 2019
    by Alex Berenson (Author)
    4.7 out of 5 stars 1,132 ratings

  119. @S. Anonyia
    @PhysicistDave

    Your explanation would be simpler if you just stated there are conformists and non-conformists out there. No need to assign special pseudoscientific postmodern names for either group (neurotypical or aspie).

    Also I’m not a conformist myself but sometimes they are right and being liked does align with external reality.

    Replies: @PhysicistDave

    S. Anonyia wrote to me:

    Your explanation would be simpler if you just stated there are conformists and non-conformists out there. No need to assign special pseudoscientific postmodern names for either group (neurotypical or aspie).

    No, you’re missing the point.

    “Nonconformist” can mean someone who wants to be different from others. In which case, they are actually being influenced by others, just in an opposite direction.

    I think we have all met such people.

    In their way, all Leftists are nonconformists in this sense: they are proud that they are not old-fashioned, ordinary, middle-class, Christian, bourgeois Americans.

    Of course, all Leftists are also conformists in another sense: conforming to whatever the current line of political correctness is. But almost none see themselves this way: in their own minds, they are freethinkers who do not think like Bubba out in flyover country.

    The point is whether you simply do not care about whether or not your views correspond to other people’s view but rather do care if your views correspond to external reality.

    SA also wrote:

    Also I’m not a conformist myself but sometimes they are right and being liked does align with external reality.

    Well, only by dumb luck. The “wisdom of crowds” is nonsense. The “crowd” is only “wise” to the degree that they are thinking for themselves as individuals.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @PhysicistDave


    The “wisdom of crowds” is nonsense.
     
    This is mostly semantics, I suspect, but still: no, the wisdom of crowds is real. No superforcaster is able to consistently beat a pretty straightforward aggregation of the forecasts from a crowd of other superforcasters. Exactly the same way no fund manager is able to consistently beat simple indexes.

    Replies: @PhysicistDave

  120. @Jack D
    @Anon

    Probably the 1st that I worked on since my kids were in school. But it's like riding a bike - it comes back to you ASSUMING that you learned it the 1st time.

    Replies: @Johann Ricke

    Probably the 1st that I worked on since my kids were in school. But it’s like riding a bike – it comes back to you ASSUMING that you learned it the 1st time.

    Indeed. Algebra ain’t differential equations.

  121. @S. Anonyia
    @Alden

    Referring to anyone remotely nonconformist, obsessive, or quirky as “autistic” is just another variation of everyone thinking they are chosen ones with special powers. Main character syndrome.

    People are acting like there isn’t a range of personality traits lol.

    Replies: @middle-aged vet

    You are of course correct, but the possibility has just occurred to me that you might not be aware who your likely audience is on comment threads like this.

  122. Anonymous[142] • Disclaimer says:

    If the Superforcasters are so good then how come they are not rich? In fact, they keep forecasting for peanuts, at a rate appreciably below minimal hourly wage. (One of the key to their success is constant updating of the forecasts to the passage of time and/or to the incoming news that potentially affect the question. This alone is very time-consuming).

  123. Anonymous[142] • Disclaimer says:
    @PhysicistDave
    @S. Anonyia

    S. Anonyia wrote to me:


    Your explanation would be simpler if you just stated there are conformists and non-conformists out there. No need to assign special pseudoscientific postmodern names for either group (neurotypical or aspie).
     
    No, you're missing the point.

    "Nonconformist" can mean someone who wants to be different from others. In which case, they are actually being influenced by others, just in an opposite direction.

    I think we have all met such people.

    In their way, all Leftists are nonconformists in this sense: they are proud that they are not old-fashioned, ordinary, middle-class, Christian, bourgeois Americans.

    Of course, all Leftists are also conformists in another sense: conforming to whatever the current line of political correctness is. But almost none see themselves this way: in their own minds, they are freethinkers who do not think like Bubba out in flyover country.

    The point is whether you simply do not care about whether or not your views correspond to other people's view but rather do care if your views correspond to external reality.

    SA also wrote:

    Also I’m not a conformist myself but sometimes they are right and being liked does align with external reality.
     
    Well, only by dumb luck. The "wisdom of crowds" is nonsense. The "crowd" is only "wise" to the degree that they are thinking for themselves as individuals.

    Replies: @Anonymous

    The “wisdom of crowds” is nonsense.

    This is mostly semantics, I suspect, but still: no, the wisdom of crowds is real. No superforcaster is able to consistently beat a pretty straightforward aggregation of the forecasts from a crowd of other superforcasters. Exactly the same way no fund manager is able to consistently beat simple indexes.

    • Agree: S. Anonyia
    • Replies: @PhysicistDave
    @Anonymous

    Somehow my reply did not link to your comment: see it a bit above in the thread.

  124. @Dumbo
    @Steve Sailer

    Why would they cancel Asperger?

    "Retarded" is a bad word/diagnostic because it doesn't really say much (except implying lower IQ).

    "Autistic" is not very good either, to be honest, just a bit better. It doesn't sound offensive, but you need something more precise. Is there some sort of autism scale, similar to an IQ scale?

    Asperger's was always considered the lower part of the autistic spectrum. I didn't know it was "cancelled".

    Replies: @Stan Adams, @PhysicistDave

    Keeping up with the whims and vagaries of deranged woketards is a full-time job.

  125. Anonymous[142] wrote to me:

    No superforcaster is able to consistently beat a pretty straightforward aggregation of the forecasts from a crowd of other superforcasters.

    You are still missing the point.

    Wat makes them superforecasters is that each one is thinking for himself.

    And that is true for the classic cases of guessing the number of jelly beans in a jar, etc. It each person tries to form his own opinion, the outliers will tend to cancel out.

    But if everyone is just “following the crowd,” the crowd as a whole can go off into outer space together.

    In any field of endeavor, if you get a bunch of people of roughly equal intelligence and expertise in that field, who each forms his own independent judgment on some matter, then the average judgment will be better than many of the individuals’ judgments. This is an obvious result in statistics (the sigma goes roughly as one over root N) and is almost just common sense.

    STEM people take this for granted: as an engineer, I and my colleagues were quite intense about getting our fellow engineers to check out our designs. Even if some other guy was no smarter than I was, just by chance he would probably not make the same error I had made.

    That is, if he formed his own individual judgment without simply trying to go along with the crowd.

    But if people do not form their own independent, individual judgment, then all bets are off.

    Which is why the phrase the “wisdom of crowds” is complete bullshit.

    What makes a crowd a crowd is that they are paying attention to each other.

    The “wisdom of crowds” only works if it is not a “crowd” but a bunch of separate individuals forming their own independent judgments. And of course, if it requires any sort of specialized expertise, they need to be of comparable levels of intelligence and expertise: otherwise, we could trust a “crowd” to do heart surgery!

    It should be called the “wisdom of independent individuals of comparable intelligence and expertise.”

    But that does not play into the egalitarian bullshit that is destroying our society.

    All humans are not equal.

    But all of you less equal ones really hate being reminded of that!

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @PhysicistDave

    Galton discovered the Wisdom of Crowds at a country fair when he was 85. There was a contest to guess the weight of a prize bull. Everybody who entered wrote their name and guess on a slip of paper. Galton was always on the lookout for data sources, so he figured this would be a good source to show how untrustworthy amateur judgment was. But it turned out the guesses formed a nice bell curve around the actual value.

    Of course, these were country folk who weren't ignorant of the weight of bulls. I don't remember if they paid to enter the contest. Probably they did which would also increase the quality of entries. There probably wasn't much opportunity for groupthink or fads to run away with the entries.

  126. @Dumbo
    @Steve Sailer

    Why would they cancel Asperger?

    "Retarded" is a bad word/diagnostic because it doesn't really say much (except implying lower IQ).

    "Autistic" is not very good either, to be honest, just a bit better. It doesn't sound offensive, but you need something more precise. Is there some sort of autism scale, similar to an IQ scale?

    Asperger's was always considered the lower part of the autistic spectrum. I didn't know it was "cancelled".

    Replies: @Stan Adams, @PhysicistDave

    Dumbo asked:

    Asperger’s was always considered the lower part of the autistic spectrum. I didn’t know it was “cancelled”.

    I had a friend whose son was severely autistic.

    Putting him in the same category as, say, Bill Gates is not only highly misleading but risks confusing very serious medical issues.

    One key point: my friend’s son did not enjoy the experience of being severely autistic: he basically could not communicate verbally, could not take care of himself on a daily basis physically, etc.

    He did not choose this. He was clearly very, very unhappy.

    On the other hand, Bill Gates is pretty obviously okay with who he is.

    I went to Caltech: most of the students were, in colloquial terms, “Aspergery” — which did make it easy for me to get a couple of girlfriends among the tiny number of female students, since most of the males had no idea at all of how to deal with girls!

    Were these guys unhappy? Well, pretty clearly, most of them wished they were better at picking up girls.

    But on the whole, they were who they wanted to be. They did not really wish they had spent more time playing football, going to parties, etc. and less time learning about science.

    To view their situation as a medical condition makes no more sense than viewing the guys in high school who were star football players as having a medical condition (maybe call it “Brady’s syndrome” in honor of Tom Brady?).

    I was on a friendly basis (though not super-close personal friends) with the stars of our football team. They liked being who they were. They did not want to be a nerd like me.

    And I was happy being a nerd. I did not want to be a jock like them.

    Which, I suppose, is why we actually rather liked and respected each other.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @PhysicistDave

    "Although of course you end up becoming yourself" -- David Foster Wallace

    That strikes me as pretty upbeat, although it didn't seem to cheer up DFW.

    Replies: @PhysicistDave, @middle-aged vet

    , @The Anti-Gnostic
    @PhysicistDave

    I had a friend whose son was severely autistic.

    Putting him in the same category as, say, Bill Gates is not only highly misleading but risks confusing very serious medical issues.

    One key point: my friend’s son did not enjoy the experience of being severely autistic: he basically could not communicate verbally, could not take care of himself on a daily basis physically, etc.


    I knew a couple with an autistic son as well. He was in his mid-30s when I lived near them. He was a large, shambling wreck. Constant panic and anxiety, non-verbal, constantly having to be prompted to keep his behavior in check, not urinate in public, not take his shirt off, etc. I have no idea how they sat him down and kept him still to shave him or cut his hair. There was some thought to letting him smoke to keep his mood stable, but he would have just smoked one cigarette right after the other, and left several burning around the house. He would have occasional moments of calm and I once saw some fleeting exuberance but he never smiled. Tortured soul trapped in his own head.

    I've also seen a parent describe her son with an obvious degree of microcephaly as "autistic." I've also seen it stretched to cover the "indulged, selfish brat" spectrum. This whole area of medicine seems to be a mess.

  127. @Anonymous
    @PhysicistDave


    The “wisdom of crowds” is nonsense.
     
    This is mostly semantics, I suspect, but still: no, the wisdom of crowds is real. No superforcaster is able to consistently beat a pretty straightforward aggregation of the forecasts from a crowd of other superforcasters. Exactly the same way no fund manager is able to consistently beat simple indexes.

    Replies: @PhysicistDave

    Somehow my reply did not link to your comment: see it a bit above in the thread.

  128. @PhysicistDave
    @Dumbo

    Dumbo asked:


    Asperger’s was always considered the lower part of the autistic spectrum. I didn’t know it was “cancelled”.
     
    I had a friend whose son was severely autistic.

    Putting him in the same category as, say, Bill Gates is not only highly misleading but risks confusing very serious medical issues.

    One key point: my friend's son did not enjoy the experience of being severely autistic: he basically could not communicate verbally, could not take care of himself on a daily basis physically, etc.

    He did not choose this. He was clearly very, very unhappy.

    On the other hand, Bill Gates is pretty obviously okay with who he is.

    I went to Caltech: most of the students were, in colloquial terms, "Aspergery" -- which did make it easy for me to get a couple of girlfriends among the tiny number of female students, since most of the males had no idea at all of how to deal with girls!

    Were these guys unhappy? Well, pretty clearly, most of them wished they were better at picking up girls.

    But on the whole, they were who they wanted to be. They did not really wish they had spent more time playing football, going to parties, etc. and less time learning about science.

    To view their situation as a medical condition makes no more sense than viewing the guys in high school who were star football players as having a medical condition (maybe call it "Brady's syndrome" in honor of Tom Brady?).

    I was on a friendly basis (though not super-close personal friends) with the stars of our football team. They liked being who they were. They did not want to be a nerd like me.

    And I was happy being a nerd. I did not want to be a jock like them.

    Which, I suppose, is why we actually rather liked and respected each other.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @The Anti-Gnostic

    “Although of course you end up becoming yourself” — David Foster Wallace

    That strikes me as pretty upbeat, although it didn’t seem to cheer up DFW.

    • Replies: @PhysicistDave
    @Steve Sailer

    Steve Sailer wrote to me:


    “Although of course you end up becoming yourself” — David Foster Wallace

    That strikes me as pretty upbeat, although it didn’t seem to cheer up DFW.
     
    Yeah, I never quite understood the supposed "nerds vs. jocks" meme. Just didn't happen at my junior high or high school. Aside from the football stars, I was also on friendly terms with several of the guys on the basketball team -- I remember interesting discussions with them about current events in history class.

    And there was similarly mixing among the jocks or the nerds and the music kids and the drama kids.

    For example, the actor John Goodman, who was two years ahead of me, was on the football team but, of course, also involved in drama. I was actually one of three back-up singers to John in our school's production of Hello, Dolly! for the song "It Takes a Woman" -- if only high-school drama productions counted for Kievin Bacon numbers! (I do have an Erdos number of 6, though, thanks to being a physicist.)

    Our lower-middle-class/working-class community did not seem like a utopia of harmony and understanding at the time: I just thought that was how America was.

    Maybe that was the real America. At one time.

    Replies: @Anon

    , @middle-aged vet
    @Steve Sailer

    As a grade-grubbing son of 'humanities' academics, poor Wallace knew exactly what he was doing with that quote, and it wasn't good. It is a bastardization of one of Heidegger's best known (among the sad people who care about such things) insights.

    Basically, what the poor lonely little man was saying is that we all will be judged by the grades we get, that is what makes us ourselves. Even after we graduate from whatever sad, prestigious or not, university we graduate from, we can expect a lifetime of "failing" to be the best student in whatever course life sets for us. That is a Completely insane view of what life is, of course, and poor Wallace indulged himself, I guess, by telling himself all real artists are insane, but .... but that is not true AT ALL!. The best artists are the most sane among us! Anyway, it was suicidal for the poor little man to take on a "teaching post" (teaching young people, for money, how to achieve a worthless masters in fine arts in 'creative writing') and for him to write "novels that would be appreciated and well reviewed by academics and journalists adjacent to the academy." Poor little guy should have just gotten a real job that had nothing to do with academic connections and nothing to do with snide subtle allusions to Heidegger and his Sein und zeit, and, after turning his back on academia and his eternal struggle to be philosophically correct, the poor guy should have just enjoyed life a little bit. After a couple decades of enjoying life, and then, and only then, and not before, he would have been ready to write a novel. But no, he had to rush everything ....

    And yes I know he had actual biological issues, but they were exacerbated by his bad choices.

  129. @PhysicistDave
    Anonymous[142] wrote to me:

    No superforcaster is able to consistently beat a pretty straightforward aggregation of the forecasts from a crowd of other superforcasters.
     
    You are still missing the point.

    Wat makes them superforecasters is that each one is thinking for himself.

    And that is true for the classic cases of guessing the number of jelly beans in a jar, etc. It each person tries to form his own opinion, the outliers will tend to cancel out.

    But if everyone is just "following the crowd," the crowd as a whole can go off into outer space together.

    In any field of endeavor, if you get a bunch of people of roughly equal intelligence and expertise in that field, who each forms his own independent judgment on some matter, then the average judgment will be better than many of the individuals' judgments. This is an obvious result in statistics (the sigma goes roughly as one over root N) and is almost just common sense.

    STEM people take this for granted: as an engineer, I and my colleagues were quite intense about getting our fellow engineers to check out our designs. Even if some other guy was no smarter than I was, just by chance he would probably not make the same error I had made.

    That is, if he formed his own individual judgment without simply trying to go along with the crowd.

    But if people do not form their own independent, individual judgment, then all bets are off.

    Which is why the phrase the "wisdom of crowds" is complete bullshit.

    What makes a crowd a crowd is that they are paying attention to each other.

    The "wisdom of crowds" only works if it is not a "crowd" but a bunch of separate individuals forming their own independent judgments. And of course, if it requires any sort of specialized expertise, they need to be of comparable levels of intelligence and expertise: otherwise, we could trust a "crowd" to do heart surgery!

    It should be called the "wisdom of independent individuals of comparable intelligence and expertise."

    But that does not play into the egalitarian bullshit that is destroying our society.

    All humans are not equal.

    But all of you less equal ones really hate being reminded of that!

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    Galton discovered the Wisdom of Crowds at a country fair when he was 85. There was a contest to guess the weight of a prize bull. Everybody who entered wrote their name and guess on a slip of paper. Galton was always on the lookout for data sources, so he figured this would be a good source to show how untrustworthy amateur judgment was. But it turned out the guesses formed a nice bell curve around the actual value.

    Of course, these were country folk who weren’t ignorant of the weight of bulls. I don’t remember if they paid to enter the contest. Probably they did which would also increase the quality of entries. There probably wasn’t much opportunity for groupthink or fads to run away with the entries.

    • Thanks: PhysicistDave
  130. @Steve Sailer
    @PhysicistDave

    "Although of course you end up becoming yourself" -- David Foster Wallace

    That strikes me as pretty upbeat, although it didn't seem to cheer up DFW.

    Replies: @PhysicistDave, @middle-aged vet

    Steve Sailer wrote to me:

    “Although of course you end up becoming yourself” — David Foster Wallace

    That strikes me as pretty upbeat, although it didn’t seem to cheer up DFW.

    Yeah, I never quite understood the supposed “nerds vs. jocks” meme. Just didn’t happen at my junior high or high school. Aside from the football stars, I was also on friendly terms with several of the guys on the basketball team — I remember interesting discussions with them about current events in history class.

    And there was similarly mixing among the jocks or the nerds and the music kids and the drama kids.

    For example, the actor John Goodman, who was two years ahead of me, was on the football team but, of course, also involved in drama. I was actually one of three back-up singers to John in our school’s production of Hello, Dolly! for the song “It Takes a Woman” — if only high-school drama productions counted for Kievin Bacon numbers! (I do have an Erdos number of 6, though, thanks to being a physicist.)

    Our lower-middle-class/working-class community did not seem like a utopia of harmony and understanding at the time: I just thought that was how America was.

    Maybe that was the real America. At one time.

    • Replies: @Anon
    @PhysicistDave


    Our lower-middle-class/working-class community did not seem like a utopia of harmony and understanding at the time: I just thought that was how America was.
     
    What percentage of your classes were, respectively, Black, Chinese, and Indian?

    Replies: @PhysicistDave

  131. @PhysicistDave
    @Steve Sailer

    Steve Sailer wrote to me:


    “Although of course you end up becoming yourself” — David Foster Wallace

    That strikes me as pretty upbeat, although it didn’t seem to cheer up DFW.
     
    Yeah, I never quite understood the supposed "nerds vs. jocks" meme. Just didn't happen at my junior high or high school. Aside from the football stars, I was also on friendly terms with several of the guys on the basketball team -- I remember interesting discussions with them about current events in history class.

    And there was similarly mixing among the jocks or the nerds and the music kids and the drama kids.

    For example, the actor John Goodman, who was two years ahead of me, was on the football team but, of course, also involved in drama. I was actually one of three back-up singers to John in our school's production of Hello, Dolly! for the song "It Takes a Woman" -- if only high-school drama productions counted for Kievin Bacon numbers! (I do have an Erdos number of 6, though, thanks to being a physicist.)

    Our lower-middle-class/working-class community did not seem like a utopia of harmony and understanding at the time: I just thought that was how America was.

    Maybe that was the real America. At one time.

    Replies: @Anon

    Our lower-middle-class/working-class community did not seem like a utopia of harmony and understanding at the time: I just thought that was how America was.

    What percentage of your classes were, respectively, Black, Chinese, and Indian?

    • Replies: @PhysicistDave
    @Anon

    Anon asked me:


    What percentage of your classes were, respectively, Black, Chinese, and Indian?
     
    No Blacks that I know of, a handful of East Asians, no South Asians that I knew of, and at least one girl who was at least partially Amerindian. One other girl, who was a pretty close friend, looked either part Black or part Amerindian, but, strangely, her ancestry just never came up.

    A wide spread of European ethnic groups -- German, Irish, Italian, Greek , Slavic, etc.

    It may seem hard to believe that no one much cared about the different ethnic or racial backgrounds (to the point that it never even came up with the girl who looked part Black or Amerindian), but we were very naive about such things.

    Similarly with politics and religion: politics (and religion) came up in Social Studies classes, but it never occurred to anyone to ostracize anybody else because of their religions or political views. This was at the height of the national debates over the civil-rights movement and the Vietnam War, but it never occurred to any of us that you would hate someone because of their political views.

    To be sure, if we had had a large contingent of ghetto Blacks, I am sure it would have been very different. One of my close friends -- a guy who was half-Asian -- had come from another school district with huge Black-White conflicts: he was highly prejudiced against Blacks for a year or so after he moved into our school.

    Let me make clear -- we were not a cozy little upper-middle-class liberal enclave: our lower-middle-class/working-class suburban community was conservative Republican, and the students themselves leaned in the same direction.

    But we all had been raised that you treated others with respect. And, aside from a handful of "hoods" (who we all expected would up in the state penitentiary!), we did. The "hoods" by the way did not overlap at all with the jocks or the music or drama kids or, of course, the nerds. For that matter, even the kids who were generally struggling in school -- in grade school and junior high, I was friends with some of these guys who were barely making it -- were by and large pretty decent guys.

    It was a different country.
  132. @PhysicistDave
    @Dumbo

    Dumbo asked:


    Asperger’s was always considered the lower part of the autistic spectrum. I didn’t know it was “cancelled”.
     
    I had a friend whose son was severely autistic.

    Putting him in the same category as, say, Bill Gates is not only highly misleading but risks confusing very serious medical issues.

    One key point: my friend's son did not enjoy the experience of being severely autistic: he basically could not communicate verbally, could not take care of himself on a daily basis physically, etc.

    He did not choose this. He was clearly very, very unhappy.

    On the other hand, Bill Gates is pretty obviously okay with who he is.

    I went to Caltech: most of the students were, in colloquial terms, "Aspergery" -- which did make it easy for me to get a couple of girlfriends among the tiny number of female students, since most of the males had no idea at all of how to deal with girls!

    Were these guys unhappy? Well, pretty clearly, most of them wished they were better at picking up girls.

    But on the whole, they were who they wanted to be. They did not really wish they had spent more time playing football, going to parties, etc. and less time learning about science.

    To view their situation as a medical condition makes no more sense than viewing the guys in high school who were star football players as having a medical condition (maybe call it "Brady's syndrome" in honor of Tom Brady?).

    I was on a friendly basis (though not super-close personal friends) with the stars of our football team. They liked being who they were. They did not want to be a nerd like me.

    And I was happy being a nerd. I did not want to be a jock like them.

    Which, I suppose, is why we actually rather liked and respected each other.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @The Anti-Gnostic

    I had a friend whose son was severely autistic.

    Putting him in the same category as, say, Bill Gates is not only highly misleading but risks confusing very serious medical issues.

    One key point: my friend’s son did not enjoy the experience of being severely autistic: he basically could not communicate verbally, could not take care of himself on a daily basis physically, etc.

    I knew a couple with an autistic son as well. He was in his mid-30s when I lived near them. He was a large, shambling wreck. Constant panic and anxiety, non-verbal, constantly having to be prompted to keep his behavior in check, not urinate in public, not take his shirt off, etc. I have no idea how they sat him down and kept him still to shave him or cut his hair. There was some thought to letting him smoke to keep his mood stable, but he would have just smoked one cigarette right after the other, and left several burning around the house. He would have occasional moments of calm and I once saw some fleeting exuberance but he never smiled. Tortured soul trapped in his own head.

    I’ve also seen a parent describe her son with an obvious degree of microcephaly as “autistic.” I’ve also seen it stretched to cover the “indulged, selfish brat” spectrum. This whole area of medicine seems to be a mess.

  133. [Y]ou give people a description of a woman called Linda, who is described as an ‘a philosophy major, concerned with discrimination and social justice, and a participant in antinuclear demonstrations’, and then you ask people if it is more likely that ‘Linda is a bank teller’, or that ‘Linda is a bank teller who is active in the feminist movement’. If someone takes the view that the second is more likely, they have committed the conjunction fallacy, as if it is the case that Linda is a bank teller and a feminist, it must be the case that Linda is a bank teller, so it can’t be more likely that she is both a bank teller and a feminist than being just a bank teller.

    I’m so tired of this fallacy of fallacy! It is true that as a matter of probabilistic logic that thing A and B both being true is less likely that A being true and B being either true or false, but the fallacy ignores the way people usually use language, the salient personality characteristics established for Linda, and salient information.

    Consider this scenario “John is an introverted 35-year-old single man. He says he’s more comfortable with numbers than people, and he says it to your shoes. John has a “trophy case” in his basement that is a freezer filled with the severed heads of prostitutes.

    “Is it more likely that a), John is an accountant or b), John is an accountant and a serial killer?”

    The most important thing about John is not his facility with arithmetic! Any answer that leaves out the serial killer part is not capturing the gist of the story. If you hear this description of John, your first reaction should not be, “can he help me with my taxes?”

    There’s also the matter that talented, even gifted, people, will take lower pay if they can pursue a passion. If Linda is only a bank teller, she’s most likely making feminism her true avocation.

    There’s also the way people use language. When the teacher assigns the “Linda Question” with only those two answers allowed, one can reasonably infer that Linda is a bank teller, so the point of differentiation of the possibilities is whether she’s more likely a feminist or not.

  134. @Steve Sailer
    @PhysicistDave

    "Although of course you end up becoming yourself" -- David Foster Wallace

    That strikes me as pretty upbeat, although it didn't seem to cheer up DFW.

    Replies: @PhysicistDave, @middle-aged vet

    As a grade-grubbing son of ‘humanities’ academics, poor Wallace knew exactly what he was doing with that quote, and it wasn’t good. It is a bastardization of one of Heidegger’s best known (among the sad people who care about such things) insights.

    Basically, what the poor lonely little man was saying is that we all will be judged by the grades we get, that is what makes us ourselves. Even after we graduate from whatever sad, prestigious or not, university we graduate from, we can expect a lifetime of “failing” to be the best student in whatever course life sets for us. That is a Completely insane view of what life is, of course, and poor Wallace indulged himself, I guess, by telling himself all real artists are insane, but …. but that is not true AT ALL!. The best artists are the most sane among us! Anyway, it was suicidal for the poor little man to take on a “teaching post” (teaching young people, for money, how to achieve a worthless masters in fine arts in ‘creative writing’) and for him to write “novels that would be appreciated and well reviewed by academics and journalists adjacent to the academy.” Poor little guy should have just gotten a real job that had nothing to do with academic connections and nothing to do with snide subtle allusions to Heidegger and his Sein und zeit, and, after turning his back on academia and his eternal struggle to be philosophically correct, the poor guy should have just enjoyed life a little bit. After a couple decades of enjoying life, and then, and only then, and not before, he would have been ready to write a novel. But no, he had to rush everything ….

    And yes I know he had actual biological issues, but they were exacerbated by his bad choices.

    • Thanks: PhysicistDave
  135. @Anon
    @PhysicistDave


    Our lower-middle-class/working-class community did not seem like a utopia of harmony and understanding at the time: I just thought that was how America was.
     
    What percentage of your classes were, respectively, Black, Chinese, and Indian?

    Replies: @PhysicistDave

    Anon asked me:

    What percentage of your classes were, respectively, Black, Chinese, and Indian?

    No Blacks that I know of, a handful of East Asians, no South Asians that I knew of, and at least one girl who was at least partially Amerindian. One other girl, who was a pretty close friend, looked either part Black or part Amerindian, but, strangely, her ancestry just never came up.

    A wide spread of European ethnic groups — German, Irish, Italian, Greek , Slavic, etc.

    It may seem hard to believe that no one much cared about the different ethnic or racial backgrounds (to the point that it never even came up with the girl who looked part Black or Amerindian), but we were very naive about such things.

    Similarly with politics and religion: politics (and religion) came up in Social Studies classes, but it never occurred to anyone to ostracize anybody else because of their religions or political views. This was at the height of the national debates over the civil-rights movement and the Vietnam War, but it never occurred to any of us that you would hate someone because of their political views.

    To be sure, if we had had a large contingent of ghetto Blacks, I am sure it would have been very different. One of my close friends — a guy who was half-Asian — had come from another school district with huge Black-White conflicts: he was highly prejudiced against Blacks for a year or so after he moved into our school.

    Let me make clear — we were not a cozy little upper-middle-class liberal enclave: our lower-middle-class/working-class suburban community was conservative Republican, and the students themselves leaned in the same direction.

    But we all had been raised that you treated others with respect. And, aside from a handful of “hoods” (who we all expected would up in the state penitentiary!), we did. The “hoods” by the way did not overlap at all with the jocks or the music or drama kids or, of course, the nerds. For that matter, even the kids who were generally struggling in school — in grade school and junior high, I was friends with some of these guys who were barely making it — were by and large pretty decent guys.

    It was a different country.

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