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From Prague Morning:
Usage of Masks “Flattened” Growth of Coronavirus Cases in Czech Republic
Prague Morning
BY PRAGUE MORNING
MARCH 29, 2020The growth of coronavirus cases has “flattened” in the Czech Republic ever since the country’s government has made masks compulsory, claimed data scientist Jeremy Howard. … This occurred after the government announced it was compulsory to wear something covering a part of your mouth and nose when leaving your residences – such as a home-made mask or a scarf on March 18.
… In just 10 days, the country went from no mask usage to nearly 100 percent usage, with nearly all the masks made at home with easily accessible materials, like old t-shirts.
Unfortunately, I don’t see a lot of totally convincing graphs online about what is happening in Czechia.
What about Canada? They have a fifth of our Corona-related mortality rate.
The USA’s mortality rate is 10 per 1 million population.
Canada’s mortality rate is 2 per 1 million population.
They also have only 40% of our case rate.
The USA’s rate of Corona cases is 495 per 1 million population.
Canada’s rate is 197 per 1 million population.
What is Canada doing right?
Here’s a deal: let’s not do this and reduce sickly boomer mortality 20 times more than a ChiCom style shutdown would by banning cigarettes, Chinese space heaters, motorcycle riding past age 60, and Big Gulps.
Well our government told us wearing masks was worthless, to discourage non-medical personnel from buying them. Pretty soon they will not only be worthless, but mandatory.
See this blog post from Czechia:
Among whites, Czechs are the face mask pioneers
If you look at it, I have considered the face masks to be a key tool in the suppression of the propagation of similar flu-like viruses at least since January, a tool that has clearly been successful not only in China but also in Japan, Taiwan, and some other Asian countries. On March 11th, I explicitly wrote the minister of health to make them mandatory and it basically occurred since March 18th.“
https://motls.blogspot.com/2020/03/among-whites-czechs-are-face-mask.html?m=1
If we are really serious about getting back to work and stopping the spread, these are the sort of things we are going to have to do. So long as there is a single infected person running around there is a chance the pandemic could heat up again. We need to go from ~165,000n (known) cases to zero very, very quickly.
Frankly it amazes me that you can’t get factories making masks up and running in short order. It would seem to be pretty basic technology. You’re making flimsy little masks, not aircraft carriers. Giving out little, pocket-sized bottles of hand sanitizer for people to carry with them would help, too. Getting every governor on board with mandatory statewide closures is probably the last big step. That means liberals need to stop talking about racism and “conservatives” need to stop talking about “muh constitution.”
The masks are effectively a closure. We don't need more hype and overreaction.
Steve Martin referencing the Hong Kong flu back in 1970 in a TV comedy skit.
At 11.45 in:
I WANT TO BELIEVE!
But I’m uncertain…
The graphs show a definite slow down of growth rate of confirmed cases starting about 10 days ago. But it seems there should be some lag between the intervention and its reflection in that number. Also the growth is still exponential and hasn’t slowed down s once that change 10 days ago. Maybe the lag is longer and it hasn’t shown up in the graphs yet.
(based on good ole
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
of the John Hopkins data )
Check out this:
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?country=China&country=Czechia&country=India&country=Italy&country=US
That graph understates the case though because it uses the last week. If you just go by yesterday’s data, you’ll see that their daily growth is about 5% in confirmed cases. That makes it competitive with east asian countries and way below most of Europe/NA, which are mostly in the 10-15% range.
Clearly masks are working. East Asian nations outside China have a cultural norm of people wearing masks outside when they are sick or fear sickness, and they (Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan) have all lower infection rates than non-East Asian nations.
I think handshaking will come back, but non-East Asians nations may start with culturally accepted mask-wearing.
Semi-OT: “Czechia” (Steve’s usage) appears to be supplanting the “Czech Republic” (the article’s usage), since the Czechs officially adopted the shorter name as the preferred English name for their country in 2016. https://www.forbes.com/sites/francistapon/2017/05/22/czechia-has-won-the-czech-republic-name-debate/
(They call themselves something totally different from either name in their own language.)
The gov is starting a stealthy turn on masks.
An NPR discussion about what CDC director said today:
https://www.npr.org/2020/03/30/824021895/cdc-director-redfield-speaks-on-u-s-readiness-and-latest-guidance-for-coronaviru
The whole segment is funny-sad from a pro mask point of view as you can feel the reporters trying to secure their world view against the realization that maybe they’ve been uncritically parotting bad advice for months.
I’ve been saying, we should reopen service businesses, keep the 6 ft rule, and require a mask in public. Doesn’t have to be a highfalutin’ mask. Just something to retard your own spew. If your spray isn’t floating around, I won’t catch it.
We should certainly do this by Easter, if not sooner. Keeping businesses closed beyond that is ridiculous. The business of Americas is… class? Class?
BUSINESS! 😡
Let no account partying Negroes fall where they may! Let the retarded Caucazoid joggers of Runyan Canyon stagger off this mortal divide as Nature see’s fit!
Are we, the most power country on the Planet Earth going to allow ourselves to dance to the chinkyflu’s jig?!
In America, we are IN it, to WIN it. I’ve had it up to here with all the crybaby virus shit!
Raw Data
Mar – – – – – – – – Cases
1 – – – – – – – – – – – -3
2 – – – – — – – – – – -5
3 – – — – – – – – – – -8
4 – – – – – – – – – – 12
5 – – – – – – – – – – 18
6 – – – – – – – – – – 19
7 – – – – – – – – – – 31
8 – – – – – – – – – – 31
9 – – – – – – – – – – 41
10 – – – – – – – – – – 91
11 – – – – – – – – – – 94 – – – 1 – – – -Begin “days since 100 here” f(x)=80.00741282*1.30455752^x
12 – – – – – – – – – – 141 – – – 2
13 – – – – – – – – – – 189 – – -3
14 – – – – – – – – – – 253 – – -4
15 – – – – – – – – – – 298 – – -5
16 – – – – – – – – – – 396 – – -6
17 – – – – – – – – – – 464 – – -7
18 – – – – – – – – – – 694 – – -8 – – – -end “before masks group”
19 – – – – – – – – – – 833 – – -9 – – – -bgn “after masks group” f(x)=257.12981355*1.14221036^x
20 – – – – – – – – – – 995 – – 10
21 – – – – – – – – – -1100 – -11
22 – – – – – – – – – -1200 –12
23 – – – – – – – – – -1400 –13
24 – – – – – – – – – -1700 – -14
25 – – – – – – – – – -1900 – -15
26 – – – – – – – – – -2300 –16
27 – – – – – – – – – -2600 – -17
28 – – – – – – – – – -2800 –18
29 – – – – – – – – – -3000 –19 – – – -end
The two distinct groups have “slopes” of 30.46%/day and 14.22% per day respectively.
Significant? I think so. The “:before” group was matching US growth almost exactly, and the “after” group has one of the lowest growth factors (14%) I have noticed, though I think the next US shift will also be in the 14% range.
Note: if growth remains > 1.00 (0%) for a week, then obviously Ro is >1. Because growth.
3-9: 11
3-11: 25
3-13: 46
3-14: 66
3-15: 93
3-16: 105
3-17: 160 (1st Death)
3-18: 288
3-19: 422 (4 deaths total)
3-20: 585 (5 deaths total)
3-21: 753 (6 deaths) shelter-in-place put starts in Chicago
3:22: 1,049 (9 deaths total)
3-23: 1,285 (12 deaths total)
3-24: 1,535 (16 deaths total) 92% deaths over 60
3-25: 1,869 (19 deaths total)
3-26: 2,538 (26 deaths total)
3-27: 3,026 (34 deaths total) 86% of deaths over 60
3-28: 3,491 (47 deaths total) (first infant death)
3-29 4,596 (65 deaths total)
3-30 5,057 ( 73 deaths total)Replies: @James Speaks
Peak Prosperity has some howler gems today:
At around 21:38 we hear the affirmative action airhead who is apparently Public Health minister for Canada babble a bunch of falsehoods about masks for the public:
“Putting a mask on an asymptomatic person is not beneficial obviously if you’re not infected.”
Uhhhhh…. how does an untested, asymptomatic person know whether they have it or not, genius?
“What we worry about are the potential negative aspects of wearing a mask… where people are not protecting their eyes.”
HAHAHAHA!
“Also, it increases the touching of your face.”
Jesus Christ, lady.
The USA's mortality rate is 10 per 1 million population.
Canada's mortality rate is 2 per 1 million population.
They also have only 40% of our case rate.
The USA's rate of Corona cases is 495 per 1 million population.
Canada's rate is 197 per 1 million population.
What is Canada doing right?Replies: @Lot, @Uncle Dan
OMG, 10 per 1 million, we better shut down everything for months and cause another Great Depression!
Here’s a deal: let’s not do this and reduce sickly boomer mortality 20 times more than a ChiCom style shutdown would by banning cigarettes, Chinese space heaters, motorcycle riding past age 60, and Big Gulps.
Frankly it amazes me that you can't get factories making masks up and running in short order. It would seem to be pretty basic technology. You're making flimsy little masks, not aircraft carriers. Giving out little, pocket-sized bottles of hand sanitizer for people to carry with them would help, too. Getting every governor on board with mandatory statewide closures is probably the last big step. That means liberals need to stop talking about racism and "conservatives" need to stop talking about "muh constitution."Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @TomSchmidt
The machines you are need are for making melt-blown poly fabrics. They are apparently more complex than it would seem. The masks look to us like they’re made from simple little pieces of fabric, but they are actually made from very complex little pieces of fabric.
(They call themselves something totally different from either name in their own language.)Replies: @Reg Cæsar
Česko. “Czechia” is so bad they refuse to use it themselves. There is no reason we should either. At least “Myanmar” and “Belarus”, which we mangle, and “Beijing”, which is impossible to pronounce in English, have the excuse of being endonyms.
“Czechia” has no excuse. It starts out Polish, and ends in Latin. Ridiculous. They have two beautiful names for their country (Bohemia and Moravia), but they use this barbarism.
I used to joke that "Bohemia" hasn't existed since the Thirty Years War, but they hadn't updated their history books since then.
Mar - - - - - - - - Cases
1 - - - - - - - - - - - -3
2 - - - - -- - - - - - -5
3 - - -- - - - - - - - -8
4 - - - - - - - - - - 12
5 - - - - - - - - - - 18
6 - - - - - - - - - - 19
7 - - - - - - - - - - 31
8 - - - - - - - - - - 31
9 - - - - - - - - - - 41
10 - - - - - - - - - - 91
11 - - - - - - - - - - 94 - - - 1 - - - -Begin "days since 100 here" f(x)=80.00741282*1.30455752^x
12 - - - - - - - - - - 141 - - - 2
13 - - - - - - - - - - 189 - - -3
14 - - - - - - - - - - 253 - - -4
15 - - - - - - - - - - 298 - - -5
16 - - - - - - - - - - 396 - - -6
17 - - - - - - - - - - 464 - - -7
18 - - - - - - - - - - 694 - - -8 - - - -end "before masks group"
19 - - - - - - - - - - 833 - - -9 - - - -bgn "after masks group" f(x)=257.12981355*1.14221036^x
20 - - - - - - - - - - 995 - - 10
21 - - - - - - - - - -1100 - -11
22 - - - - - - - - - -1200 --12
23 - - - - - - - - - -1400 --13
24 - - - - - - - - - -1700 - -14
25 - - - - - - - - - -1900 - -15
26 - - - - - - - - - -2300 --16
27 - - - - - - - - - -2600 - -17
28 - - - - - - - - - -2800 --18
29 - - - - - - - - - -3000 --19 - - - -end
The two distinct groups have "slopes" of 30.46%/day and 14.22% per day respectively.
Significant? I think so. The ":before" group was matching US growth almost exactly, and the "after" group has one of the lowest growth factors (14%) I have noticed, though I think the next US shift will also be in the 14% range.
Note: if growth remains > 1.00 (0%) for a week, then obviously Ro is >1. Because growth.Replies: @JimDandy
Illinois:
3-8: 8
3-9: 11
3-11: 25
3-13: 46
3-14: 66
3-15: 93
3-16: 105
3-17: 160 (1st Death)
3-18: 288
3-19: 422 (4 deaths total)
3-20: 585 (5 deaths total)
3-21: 753 (6 deaths) shelter-in-place put starts in Chicago
3:22: 1,049 (9 deaths total)
3-23: 1,285 (12 deaths total)
3-24: 1,535 (16 deaths total) 92% deaths over 60
3-25: 1,869 (19 deaths total)
3-26: 2,538 (26 deaths total)
3-27: 3,026 (34 deaths total) 86% of deaths over 60
3-28: 3,491 (47 deaths total) (first infant death)
3-29 4,596 (65 deaths total)
3-30 5,057 ( 73 deaths total)
42%/day
Effn crazy bad
T = 15 to T=23: f(T)=49.2522*1.2263^T; R²=0.9881
23%/day
Still very bad but not effn crazy bad
OT
Steve, reading some posts from the end of last year I came across your post about being in the market for a car. Did you ever buy one?
Here in Japan we just bought a small gasoline car a week and a half ago, thinking that the subways and trains are no longer the best transport choices, for bulk shopping or if we get sick. But delivery will take a month. Would the dealership still be open in a month?
After some negotiation we ended up with a free loaner, a Nissan Leaf plug-in electric, that we can use until delivery of our car. I’m hoping not to be to spoiled by the Leaf, although I’m probably OK since circumstances have limited our drive time. But it occurred to me that with your requirements an electric might be best:
— 15 year life: Will gas cars be made in 10 years? Will gasoline be widely available? On the other hand, electric car batteries don’t last 10 years either. So at least one expensive battery swap-out would be necessary.
— Low repair cost over time: Electrics are simple, a simple motor and no transmission.
if gas is $3 per gallon , you could buy 3,000 gallons of gasoline, enough to drive the Civic 105,000 miles. It would be foolish to spend an extra $9,000 to buy a Leaf compared to the better alternatives like the Civic or Toyota Corolla Hatchback.Replies: @Anon
Actually the correct term is and has always been” ‘Czechy’ with a soft C’, written as C’echy in Czech.
It doesn’t seem to work in English. Bohemia is only a name in Latin for the western 2/3. Moravia is an old Czech-Slavic term for the eastern 1/3. “Bohemia and Moravia” have an obvious negative connotation because of WWII and Habsburgs.
Regarding corona, there was a dramatic and very authoritarian set of restrictions put in place on March 14: masks, quarantine, closed borders, not going to work… it is hard to separate impact of each separately. Authoritarianism works, that’s how you get things done and fix problems in a society. Too bad the liberal elites have demonized authority – it basically means that nothing can be done, nothing changes, and we get an endless nihilistic public posturing. It suits them, they like what they have.
Authority used to mean that those with power were serious and responsible for what was happening. Then liberals struck, because equality. Is it working?
And for those who do remember the Hapsburgs, were they really so awful? It seems to me that Austria-Hungary had a lot to boast about, especially compared to our nihilistic modern world. Is this abnegation of one's own history a central European version of whites=oppressor=bad/colored=victims=good?Yes, most social problems can be traced to, or at least have been aggravated by, liberals. But characteristically, their demonization of authority does not extend to their own rather vast supply. I'm old enough to remember when seeing t-shirts and placards emblazoned with "Question Authority" was common. Now that liberals have all the authority to themselves, that slogan has disappeared. The science is settled and your hate speech will not be tolerated! Those are the new slogans. So stop questioning our authority, bigot!Authority hasn't gone away. It's still here and is as strong as ever, if not stronger. But now it is sheathed in a thick layer of hypocrisy and misdirection. And yes, the reason for that is almost certainly so that those with the power are not held responsible for what they are doing with it.For them? Yes, wonderfully.
For the rest of us, ... ?Replies: @Beckow, @Captain Tripps
Of course the term "authoritarian" is currently used by our MSM gatekeepers as an all-purpose term of abuse for anyone they don't like:
Trump, Orbon, Salvini, Bolsinaro, etc. So it's a bit tainted.
But maybe "Democratic Authoritarianism" should be a debatable idea. For example, I can't tell how fair Russian elections are. But if the Russians want to use their democratic choice to periodically elect a governing Czar, maybe that's a system that will work for them.Replies: @Beckow
We need to be more praguematic ourselves, apparently.
From the, Americans apparently still can build a thing every now and then department:
A Columbus, Ohio company has built container sized units that use VHP ( https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaporized_hydrogen_peroxide ) to sterilize respirators and other PPE for hospitals. They already are deploying one to NYC after fast track FDA approval.
https://www.npr.org/2020/03/30/823803831/technology-to-clean-and-reuse-ppe-is-being-deployed-to-hotspot-hospitals
I’m a bit skeptical that hospitals will embrace these, but hopefully it’ll take some pressure off of the mask market so more civilians can use them.
(though tbh, wearing an n95 everywhere would suck. and masks really make it harder to understand people… but better than the shutdown)
Did you get that from television?
(this is a joke)
Here in Japan we just bought a small gasoline car a week and a half ago, thinking that the subways and trains are no longer the best transport choices, for bulk shopping or if we get sick. But delivery will take a month. Would the dealership still be open in a month?After some negotiation we ended up with a free loaner, a Nissan Leaf plug-in electric, that we can use until delivery of our car. I'm hoping not to be to spoiled by the Leaf, although I'm probably OK since circumstances have limited our drive time. But it occurred to me that with your requirements an electric might be best:-- 15 year life: Will gas cars be made in 10 years? Will gasoline be widely available? On the other hand, electric car batteries don't last 10 years either. So at least one expensive battery swap-out would be necessary.-- Low repair cost over time: Electrics are simple, a simple motor and no transmission.Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Travis
Thanks.
No, I’m still driving the 1998 Infiniti and the 2001 Honda minivan.
Peak Prosperity has some howler gems today:At around 21:38 we hear the affirmative action airhead who is apparently Public Health minister for Canada babble a bunch of falsehoods about masks for the public:"Putting a mask on an asymptomatic person is not beneficial obviously if you're not infected." Uhhhhh.... how does an untested, asymptomatic person know whether they have it or not, genius? "What we worry about are the potential negative aspects of wearing a mask... where people are not protecting their eyes."HAHAHAHA!"Also, it increases the touching of your face."Jesus Christ, lady.Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist
As someone who’s done a lot of mask-wearing, between SARS and corona, I think this is the biggest lie you’re being fed.
It’s pretty obvious that if you’re wearing a mask it is impossible for you to ram your fingers into your mouth or nostrils without removing said mask. And it’s presumably via those three orifices, especially the nostrils, that you’re most likely to pick up a virus.
Yes, of course you can also spread a virus via contact with your eyes, but in my experience wearing a mask is a constant reminder to avoid touching the whole of one’s face, so I guess it cuts down on that route of transmission as well.
What you do need to be careful of is removing your mask. If you grab it by the front and pull it off, you’re likely smearing whatever it’s been filtering out right onto your hand. And if you then touch your face with that hand, of course it’s bad.
But if you take off your mask via the elastic bands, put it away/throw it away without touching its other surfaces, and then wash your hands, it should be pretty safe.
NPR……… doesn’t get they’re the US version of Radio Havana.
Yes, they don’t make it easy by writing in Czech 🙁
http://www.szu.cz/tema/prevence/2019ncov
Growing up, I knew some Czech immigrants. They invariably referred to their homeland as “Bohemia” and themselves as “Bohemians”. Because they weren’t Moravian, I suppose.
I used to joke that “Bohemia” hasn’t existed since the Thirty Years War, but they hadn’t updated their history books since then.
The US curve has flattened since mid-March as well. New cases per day per Worldometers:
Mar 1 – 7
Mar 2 – 25
Mar 3 – 24
Mar 4 – 34
Mar 5 – 63
Mar 6 – 98
Mar 7 – 116
Mar 8 – 106
Mar 9 – 163
Mar 10 – 290
Mar 11 – 307
Mar 12 – 329
Mar 13 – 553
Mar 14 – 587
Mar 15 – 843
Mar 16 – 983
Mar 17 – 1,748
Mar 18 – 2,853
Mar 19 – 4,582
Mar 20 – 5,588
Mar 21 – 4,825
Mar 22 – 9,400
Mar 23 – 10,189
Mar 24 – 11,075
Mar 25 – 13,355
Mar 26 – 17,224
Mar 27 – 18,691
Mar 28 – 19,452
Mar 29 – 19,913
Mar 30 – 20,353
At current, US looks to be at 10%/day, down from 18%/day a week ago.
(I plot total cases versus time, not new cases versus existing)
Being able to easily switch from open-and-relaxed mode during times of safety, to closed-and-tightened mode during times of threat, is how a healthy organism SHOULD be able to function.
Constant relaxed openness, no matter the actual situation, and constant closed tightness, are both pathologies. Being able to shift between the two depending on the situation is a measure of adequacy.
Likewise, any state or federation/union has the structure of a space station–during an emergency, every sector gets isolated in order to contain the blowout, or virus, or boarding party; and after the emergency–the walls retract and the space station is again an open whole.
**
What we’re seeing now is a worldwide drill–which society is healthy and sane enough to be able to switch from “safe mode” to “threat mode”, and then back with the least drama, and which marcostructures have well-functioning “emergency sector division mechanisms”.
Plus, as a third stress test–where the elites actually tell the masses what to do in order to best survive the emergency, and where the elites lie and scam and sacrifice the masses in order to achieve what they believe to be “more important goals”.
**
One would have expected Asian and Slavic societies to be worse at giving their populace truthful info on the broad outlines of the emergency and how how to best navigate it, while the West would be efficient, honest, and transparent, and yet…
Such elites are plenty authoritarian when it comes time to enforce a gay wedding or apply a boot-to-the-face for a racial thought crime.
Thanks, this is illuminating.
To paraphrase someone or other, who now remembers the Hapsburgs? Or WWII for that matter (other than “Holocaust:bad”?)
And for those who do remember the Hapsburgs, were they really so awful? It seems to me that Austria-Hungary had a lot to boast about, especially compared to our nihilistic modern world. Is this abnegation of one’s own history a central European version of whites=oppressor=bad/colored=victims=good?
Yes, most social problems can be traced to, or at least have been aggravated by, liberals. But characteristically, their demonization of authority does not extend to their own rather vast supply. I’m old enough to remember when seeing t-shirts and placards emblazoned with “Question Authority” was common. Now that liberals have all the authority to themselves, that slogan has disappeared. The science is settled and your hate speech will not be tolerated! Those are the new slogans. So stop questioning our authority, bigot!
Authority hasn’t gone away. It’s still here and is as strong as ever, if not stronger. But now it is sheathed in a thick layer of hypocrisy and misdirection. And yes, the reason for that is almost certainly so that those with the power are not held responsible for what they are doing with it.
For them? Yes, wonderfully.
For the rest of us, … ?
Here in Japan we just bought a small gasoline car a week and a half ago, thinking that the subways and trains are no longer the best transport choices, for bulk shopping or if we get sick. But delivery will take a month. Would the dealership still be open in a month?After some negotiation we ended up with a free loaner, a Nissan Leaf plug-in electric, that we can use until delivery of our car. I'm hoping not to be to spoiled by the Leaf, although I'm probably OK since circumstances have limited our drive time. But it occurred to me that with your requirements an electric might be best:-- 15 year life: Will gas cars be made in 10 years? Will gasoline be widely available? On the other hand, electric car batteries don't last 10 years either. So at least one expensive battery swap-out would be necessary.-- Low repair cost over time: Electrics are simple, a simple motor and no transmission.Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Travis
For bulk shopping a Honda Civic would give you almost twice the cargo space of the Leaf.
My uncle has a Leaf , takes 8 hours to charge with range of 100 miles. The Civic gets 36 miles per gallon…can drive almost 500 miles on one tank of fuel.
Honda Civic costs $9,500 less than a Leaf. This buys a lot of gas at todays prices.
if gas is $3 per gallon , you could buy 3,000 gallons of gasoline, enough to drive the Civic 105,000 miles. It would be foolish to spend an extra $9,000 to buy a Leaf compared to the better alternatives like the Civic or Toyota Corolla Hatchback.
We have yellow plate "kei" cars in Japan that are narrow and short and have small engines, but can have huge internal capacity, mainly because they are often designed as rectangular boxes that max out the allowed dimensions. A lot of them are 2 meters tall, have bench seats, and feel way more roomy than any full sized car sold in the U.S. We bought a kei car because they are so much easier to deal with given our small parking spot and the narrow 1.5 lane streets where passing oncoming cars is tricky. Kei cars are also taxed at lower rates and are less expensive in other ways, including insurance, although you'd think insurance would be higher given that they are pancaked in any accident. In the past they could not go on freeways, but now they can, at least in the slow lane. Plug-in electric kei cars are in the works. But we were in a hurry, wanting to avoid riding in corona-trains.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kei_car
It’s a mixed bag though, isnt it. For example, Chinese authoritarianism covered up the Wujan virus, allowing it to spread. But Chinese authoritarianism then effectively squashed the virus’s further spread within China. So it was effective fixing a problem it helped create.
Of course the term “authoritarian” is currently used by our MSM gatekeepers as an all-purpose term of abuse for anyone they don’t like:
Trump, Orbon, Salvini, Bolsinaro, etc. So it’s a bit tainted.
But maybe “Democratic Authoritarianism” should be a debatable idea. For example, I can’t tell how fair Russian elections are. But if the Russians want to use their democratic choice to periodically elect a governing Czar, maybe that’s a system that will work for them.
Of course the term "authoritarian" is currently used by our MSM gatekeepers as an all-purpose term of abuse for anyone they don't like:
Trump, Orbon, Salvini, Bolsinaro, etc. So it's a bit tainted.
But maybe "Democratic Authoritarianism" should be a debatable idea. For example, I can't tell how fair Russian elections are. But if the Russians want to use their democratic choice to periodically elect a governing Czar, maybe that's a system that will work for them.Replies: @Beckow
If you think about it long enough that statement can be said about all leaders.
The taint you mention is a part of your thinking too. You have been conditioned to automatically think of authority is bad. Authority is nothing else than having the ability to use power effectively. Yes, it can have a downside. But a lack of authority makes democracy meaningless – what’s the point of ‘electing’ powerless place-holders who have no authority to do anything? Why vote for that?
You seem on-board with the stereotype of a ‘Czar’ in Russia. It is a false analogy and it betrays lazy thinking in the West. The point of a democracy is to do what most people want, all else is noise and entertainment. Compare the results of Western elections with let’s say Putin or Orban – who got what they wanted and who got an empty show? The only way to judge a democracy is by its results. How closely is what leaders do aligned with what most people want and voted for? Talking ‘Czars’ is a shallow distraction.
How do you insure the government uses its "authority" as the people would want it used, or in their best interests. Every self-serving dictator and tyrannical regime has always claimed to be expressing the people's will and acting in the people's interests.
"Emergency" conditions have also been the usual way in which strongmen seize power. (Hitler ruled, for example, under the democratically enacted Enabling Act of 1933, passed as an "emergency" measure in response to the Reichstag Fire.)
The American approach has always been to use "checks and balances" and spread power around to different institutions and regions. But our system has still allowed for temporary emergency measures in cases of war and epidemic. It's worked pretty well for us.
Btw, I read this morning that Orbon has been granted the power to rule by decree . . . indefinitely. If he rules well and then voluntarily relinquishes power, it will be to his credit. We'll see how that goes.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/31/hungarys-orban-given-power-to-rule-by-decree-with-no-end-date/Replies: @Beckow
How do you insure the government uses its "authority" as the people would want it used, or in their best interests. Every self-serving dictator and tyrannical regime has always claimed to be expressing the people's will and acting in the people's interests.
"Emergency" conditions have also been the usual way in which strongmen seize power. (Hitler ruled, for example, under the democratically enacted Enabling Act of 1933, passed as an "emergency" measure in response to the Reichstag Fire.)
The American approach has always been to use "checks and balances" and spread power around to different institutions and regions. But our system has still allowed for temporary emergency measures in cases of war and epidemic. It's worked pretty well for us.
Btw, I read this morning that Orbon has been granted the power to rule by decree . . . indefinitely. If he rules well and then voluntarily relinquishes power, it will be to his credit. We'll see how that goes.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/31/hungarys-orban-given-power-to-rule-by-decree-with-no-end-date/
And for those who do remember the Hapsburgs, were they really so awful? It seems to me that Austria-Hungary had a lot to boast about, especially compared to our nihilistic modern world. Is this abnegation of one's own history a central European version of whites=oppressor=bad/colored=victims=good?Yes, most social problems can be traced to, or at least have been aggravated by, liberals. But characteristically, their demonization of authority does not extend to their own rather vast supply. I'm old enough to remember when seeing t-shirts and placards emblazoned with "Question Authority" was common. Now that liberals have all the authority to themselves, that slogan has disappeared. The science is settled and your hate speech will not be tolerated! Those are the new slogans. So stop questioning our authority, bigot!Authority hasn't gone away. It's still here and is as strong as ever, if not stronger. But now it is sheathed in a thick layer of hypocrisy and misdirection. And yes, the reason for that is almost certainly so that those with the power are not held responsible for what they are doing with it.For them? Yes, wonderfully.
For the rest of us, ... ?Replies: @Beckow, @Captain Tripps
Yes, that’s why they are gone.
I agree with you that liberals did the usual switcheroo, as soon as they owned all institutions and had authority, their ability to self-reflect disappeared. I think it has something to do with the perks they have. But they are unusually obnoxious, probably because their verbal twists and turns outdo any other ideology. But what a f…ing show have they put on, this much inner-oriented brown-nosing hasn’t been around since Dzinghischan and his court.
(Heard roughly a decade ago on the NPR show The Splendid Table)Replies: @Joe Stalin, @Reg Cæsar
NPR – “National Socialista Radio”
Frankly it amazes me that you can't get factories making masks up and running in short order. It would seem to be pretty basic technology. You're making flimsy little masks, not aircraft carriers. Giving out little, pocket-sized bottles of hand sanitizer for people to carry with them would help, too. Getting every governor on board with mandatory statewide closures is probably the last big step. That means liberals need to stop talking about racism and "conservatives" need to stop talking about "muh constitution."Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @TomSchmidt
“Getting every governor on board with mandatory statewide closures is probably the last big step. ”
The masks are effectively a closure. We don’t need more hype and overreaction.
And for those who do remember the Hapsburgs, were they really so awful? It seems to me that Austria-Hungary had a lot to boast about, especially compared to our nihilistic modern world. Is this abnegation of one's own history a central European version of whites=oppressor=bad/colored=victims=good?Yes, most social problems can be traced to, or at least have been aggravated by, liberals. But characteristically, their demonization of authority does not extend to their own rather vast supply. I'm old enough to remember when seeing t-shirts and placards emblazoned with "Question Authority" was common. Now that liberals have all the authority to themselves, that slogan has disappeared. The science is settled and your hate speech will not be tolerated! Those are the new slogans. So stop questioning our authority, bigot!Authority hasn't gone away. It's still here and is as strong as ever, if not stronger. But now it is sheathed in a thick layer of hypocrisy and misdirection. And yes, the reason for that is almost certainly so that those with the power are not held responsible for what they are doing with it.For them? Yes, wonderfully.
For the rest of us, ... ?Replies: @Beckow, @Captain Tripps
That reminds me; what’s happened to good ol’ syonredux lately? Haven’t seen him/her around iSteve parts lately. Hope he/she is doing alright…
I miss his wonderful proclamations!
https://www.unz.com/comments/all/?commenterfilter=syonredux
What happened to our Charles Pewitt?
I miss his wonderful proclamations!
LOL. You’re being a crybaby about “business.” Corona-chan don’t care about that.
Coronavirus is pissing America off!
In the history of the world, EVERY time America gets pissed off, whatever pisses us off starts dying! That's how nature takes it's course on THIS planet!
We've got the BEST of everything, and that includes NERDS! There are NO nerds like American Nerds! Ya know why your great grandpa and his buddies didn't have any WWII stories about the day they invaded Japan? NERDS WITH BAND-AIDS HOLDING THIER GLASSES TOGETHER! THAT'S WHY!
A little bald Gollum-looking somewhat-commie son of a bitch and his Nerd army brought Japan to it's knees, begging us to go easy on them. Japs were their virus. Coronavirus are just a bunch of little fuckers looking for trouble, like the Japs. We straightened out the Japs, mostly, and we can straighten out these new, evil, extremely wee fuckers too!
Nerds don't give a FUCK about wee!! Makes it more fun for them! Nerds say, "Make 'em wee'er! We want to defeat the random mathematical motion of atomic particles, BYATCHES!!!! 🥳
We’re probably not disagreeing in principle. But the devil is in the details, isn’t it.
How do you insure the government uses its “authority” as the people would want it used, or in their best interests. Every self-serving dictator and tyrannical regime has always claimed to be expressing the people’s will and acting in the people’s interests.
“Emergency” conditions have also been the usual way in which strongmen seize power. (Hitler ruled, for example, under the democratically enacted Enabling Act of 1933, passed as an “emergency” measure in response to the Reichstag Fire.)
The American approach has always been to use “checks and balances” and spread power around to different institutions and regions. But our system has still allowed for temporary emergency measures in cases of war and epidemic. It’s worked pretty well for us.
Btw, I read this morning that Orbon has been granted the power to rule by decree . . . indefinitely. If he rules well and then voluntarily relinquishes power, it will be to his credit. We’ll see how that goes.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/31/hungarys-orban-given-power-to-rule-by-decree-with-no-end-date/
We’re probably not disagreeing in principle. But the devil is in the details, isn’t it.
How do you insure the government uses its “authority” as the people would want it used, or in their best interests. Every self-serving dictator and tyrannical regime has always claimed to be expressing the people’s will and acting in the people’s interests.
“Emergency” conditions have also been the usual way in which strongmen seize power. (Hitler ruled, for example, under the democratically enacted Enabling Act of 1933, passed as an “emergency” measure in response to the Reichstag Fire.)
The American approach has always been to use “checks and balances” and spread power around to different institutions and regions. But our system has still allowed for temporary emergency measures in cases of war and epidemic. It’s worked pretty well for us.
Btw, I read this morning that Orbon has been granted the power to rule by decree . . . indefinitely. If he rules well and then voluntarily relinquishes power, it will be to his credit. We’ll see how that goes.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/31/hungarys-orban-given-power-to-rule-by-decree-with-no-end-date/
Lovingly handcrafted artisanal masks are all the rage now: Whimsical cartoon syringes, band-aids, and baby yodas printed on a variety of colors to coordinate with every outfit and let women signal their virtue in style.
We ❤ you CoronaHoax!
He (I think) has been fairly quiet lately, but most recent comment was 3/29.
https://www.unz.com/comments/all/?commenterfilter=syonredux
if gas is $3 per gallon , you could buy 3,000 gallons of gasoline, enough to drive the Civic 105,000 miles. It would be foolish to spend an extra $9,000 to buy a Leaf compared to the better alternatives like the Civic or Toyota Corolla Hatchback.Replies: @Anon
By “bulk” I only meant two or three times more than we can carry walking or in bicycle baskets. A Japanese house doesn’t have kitchen storage for that much food anyway.
We have yellow plate “kei” cars in Japan that are narrow and short and have small engines, but can have huge internal capacity, mainly because they are often designed as rectangular boxes that max out the allowed dimensions. A lot of them are 2 meters tall, have bench seats, and feel way more roomy than any full sized car sold in the U.S. We bought a kei car because they are so much easier to deal with given our small parking spot and the narrow 1.5 lane streets where passing oncoming cars is tricky. Kei cars are also taxed at lower rates and are less expensive in other ways, including insurance, although you’d think insurance would be higher given that they are pancaked in any accident. In the past they could not go on freeways, but now they can, at least in the slow lane. Plug-in electric kei cars are in the works. But we were in a hurry, wanting to avoid riding in corona-trains.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kei_car
3-9: 11
3-11: 25
3-13: 46
3-14: 66
3-15: 93
3-16: 105
3-17: 160 (1st Death)
3-18: 288
3-19: 422 (4 deaths total)
3-20: 585 (5 deaths total)
3-21: 753 (6 deaths) shelter-in-place put starts in Chicago
3:22: 1,049 (9 deaths total)
3-23: 1,285 (12 deaths total)
3-24: 1,535 (16 deaths total) 92% deaths over 60
3-25: 1,869 (19 deaths total)
3-26: 2,538 (26 deaths total)
3-27: 3,026 (34 deaths total) 86% of deaths over 60
3-28: 3,491 (47 deaths total) (first infant death)
3-29 4,596 (65 deaths total)
3-30 5,057 ( 73 deaths total)Replies: @James Speaks
I massaged the data by subtracting 7 from each date to give days since first recorded case. Thus, day 22, where the break point occurs, is day 15 on the graph.
There is a noticeable change in slope at T = 15 (Mar 22)
T=1 to T=15: f(T)=5.5586*1.4208^T; R²=0.9943
42%/day
Effn crazy bad
T = 15 to T=23: f(T)=49.2522*1.2263^T; R²=0.9881
23%/day
Still very bad but not effn crazy bad
What’s frustrating is how predictable this situation all was. We get a major pandemic about as often as a major war. But we spend $700 billion annually on the military and seemingly almost nothing preparing for a pandemic. And while I’m not especially a big fan of Trump, the reality is that we would have been no more prepared for it under a President Clinton or a President Romney. Just see Europe, or see where we were during President Obama’s term. None of those leaders would have moved any faster to shut down travel or non-essential businesses than Trump did. We had to actually start seeing people die before politicians were willing to take action.
Mar 1 – 7
Mar 2 – 25
Mar 3 – 24
Mar 4 – 34
Mar 5 – 63
Mar 6 – 98
Mar 7 – 116
Mar 8 – 106
Mar 9 – 163
Mar 10 – 290
Mar 11 – 307
Mar 12 – 329
Mar 13 – 553
Mar 14 – 587
Mar 15 – 843
Mar 16 – 983
Mar 17 – 1,748
Mar 18 – 2,853
Mar 19 – 4,582
Mar 20 – 5,588
Mar 21 – 4,825
Mar 22 – 9,400
Mar 23 – 10,189
Mar 24 – 11,075
Mar 25 – 13,355
Mar 26 – 17,224
Mar 27 – 18,691
Mar 28 – 19,452
Mar 29 – 19,913
Mar 30 – 20,353Replies: @James Speaks
I need to run and get cough drops (jk) but looking at my graphs, I would say that though there (say three times real fast) is no sharply defined break point, a change in slope has been occurring since March 27 in both world and US graphs. I will give it another day to see if changes continue or we settle into another, albeit lower, exponential growth phase.
At current, US looks to be at 10%/day, down from 18%/day a week ago.
(I plot total cases versus time, not new cases versus existing)
I live in Prague and I think the mask regulation has been effective. There’s some noise in the equation because some old folks homes got infected, but the overall R0 has been kept very low despite early infection rates from all the people coming back from Italy in late Feb/early March when they have official school skiing holidays. The universal mask regulation removes any stigma from wearing them, it’s simply required.
Also the Czechs have been much less draconian about this overall after getting ahead of the curve early on cancelling school and then a general quarantine. Things are pretty normal here, no dramatic runs on TP, minor businesses allowed to stay open etc.
Yeah, well I DO! I DO care!
Coronavirus is pissing America off!
In the history of the world, EVERY time America gets pissed off, whatever pisses us off starts dying! That’s how nature takes it’s course on THIS planet!
We’ve got the BEST of everything, and that includes NERDS! There are NO nerds like American Nerds! Ya know why your great grandpa and his buddies didn’t have any WWII stories about the day they invaded Japan? NERDS WITH BAND-AIDS HOLDING THIER GLASSES TOGETHER! THAT’S WHY!
A little bald Gollum-looking somewhat-commie son of a bitch and his Nerd army brought Japan to it’s knees, begging us to go easy on them. Japs were their virus. Coronavirus are just a bunch of little fuckers looking for trouble, like the Japs. We straightened out the Japs, mostly, and we can straighten out these new, evil, extremely wee fuckers too!
Nerds don’t give a FUCK about wee!! Makes it more fun for them! Nerds say, “Make ’em wee’er! We want to defeat the random mathematical motion of atomic particles, BYATCHES!!!! 🥳
How do you insure the government uses its "authority" as the people would want it used, or in their best interests. Every self-serving dictator and tyrannical regime has always claimed to be expressing the people's will and acting in the people's interests.
"Emergency" conditions have also been the usual way in which strongmen seize power. (Hitler ruled, for example, under the democratically enacted Enabling Act of 1933, passed as an "emergency" measure in response to the Reichstag Fire.)
The American approach has always been to use "checks and balances" and spread power around to different institutions and regions. But our system has still allowed for temporary emergency measures in cases of war and epidemic. It's worked pretty well for us.
Btw, I read this morning that Orbon has been granted the power to rule by decree . . . indefinitely. If he rules well and then voluntarily relinquishes power, it will be to his credit. We'll see how that goes.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/31/hungarys-orban-given-power-to-rule-by-decree-with-no-end-date/Replies: @Beckow
The proof of pudding is in eating it, so yes, it is a constant work to make democracies both effective and with ‘checks and balances’. Lately most Western democracies have moved too far in the direction of constant balancing and away from results.
That suits the insiders and elites, they seek a system that is in a statis, so balanced that everything can be blocked. It is not good for anyone else. A classical example is migration: the chasm between what majority wants and what actually happens is so enormous that to claim that is a ‘democratic result’ is preposterous on its face.
I would stay away from Hitler examples – it is not a valid analogy in 2020, it is shallow to look for superficial similarities 90 years ago in dramatically different circumstances. Orban is not going to be a dictator, anyone scaring us with it simply doesn’t understand the situation, or/and doesn’t like Orban quite reasonable policies.
False analogies are a disease of modern thinking. Let’s move on from it. No Hitler.
The USA's mortality rate is 10 per 1 million population.
Canada's mortality rate is 2 per 1 million population.
They also have only 40% of our case rate.
The USA's rate of Corona cases is 495 per 1 million population.
Canada's rate is 197 per 1 million population.
What is Canada doing right?Replies: @Lot, @Uncle Dan
Perhaps they’re just a week behind us. We had their rate on March 25.
In a few days the CDC will be advising all Americans to wear masks to reduce the spread of the virus.
Dr. Robert Redfield, the director of the C.D.C., stated the agency was reviewing its guidelines on who should wear masks. Citing new data that shows high rates of transmission from people who are infected but show no symptoms.
In general, Central Europe (i.e., Visegrad group – Poland, Czechia, Slovakia,
and Hungary, totaling 65 million people) is doing much better than Germany
which in turn is doing considerably better than Italy or Spain.
According to worldometers.info,
Poland (40 mln) 33 dead 0.9 dead/1 mln
Czechia (10 mln) 31 dead 3 dead/1 mln
Germany (82 mln) 775 dead 9 dead/1 mln
Thus Poland is doing 10 times better than Germany in terms of the number
of deaths per 1 million. Central European countries are homogeneous,
have very low levels of social dysfunction (murder, rape, homelessness, HIV,
terrorist attacks, school shootings, etc), are disciplined, and are able to
take decisive action when necessary.
Poland and Japan, specifically, are two remarkable countries. They have
perhaps the lowest levels of social dysfunction in the world, and hence
can handle pandemics with relative ease.
Also the Czechs have been much less draconian about this overall after getting ahead of the curve early on cancelling school and then a general quarantine. Things are pretty normal here, no dramatic runs on TP, minor businesses allowed to stay open etc.Replies: @Almost Missouri
How did CZ secure a large enough mask supply for everyone? Or can a handkerchief over the nose and mouth count as a mask?
https://www.radio.cz/en/section/picture-of-week/a-mask-tree-as-a-form-of-solidarity
“Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are almost always bad men, even when they exercise influence and not authority; still more when you superadd the tendency of the certainty of corruption by authority.” ~ Lord Acton
Television: A medium. It is neither rare nor well-done.
(Heard roughly a decade ago on the NPR show The Splendid Table)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1jBezLoCXs
"Television: A new medium—rare, if well done!”
-Fred Waring.
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2019/07/24/tv/Replies: @Reg Cæsar
(Heard roughly a decade ago on the NPR show The Splendid Table)Replies: @Joe Stalin, @Reg Cæsar
“Television: A medium. It is neither rare nor well-done.”
Scarfs count though most people are making and wearing homemade masks, and even making them and putting them out for others.
https://www.radio.cz/en/section/picture-of-week/a-mask-tree-as-a-form-of-solidarity
(Heard roughly a decade ago on the NPR show The Splendid Table)Replies: @Joe Stalin, @Reg Cæsar
It’s an old joke, from the ’40s:
“Television: A new medium—rare, if well done!”
-Fred Waring.
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2019/07/24/tv/
"Television: A new medium—rare, if well done!”
-Fred Waring.
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2019/07/24/tv/Replies: @Reg Cæsar
Wow. Even Fred Waring is relevant in the current environment: