The Unz Review: An Alternative Media Selection
A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media
 TeasersiSteve Blog
Age and Symptoms
🔊 Listen RSS
Email This Page to Someone

 Remember My Information



=>

Bookmark Toggle AllToCAdd to LibraryRemove from Library • BShow CommentNext New CommentNext New ReplyRead More
ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
AgreeDisagreeThanksLOLTroll
These buttons register your public Agreement, Disagreement, Thanks, LOL, or Troll with the selected comment. They are ONLY available to recent, frequent commenters who have saved their Name+Email using the 'Remember My Information' checkbox, and may also ONLY be used three times during any eight hour period.
Ignore Commenter Follow Commenter
Search Text Case Sensitive  Exact Words  Include Comments
List of Bookmarks

This is a few days old. From the New York Times:

Coronavirus Death Rate in Wuhan Is Lower than Previously Thought, Study Finds
Researchers calculated a 1.4 percent likelihood of dying in the city where the pandemic began. Earlier estimates ranged from 2 percent to 3.4 percent.

By Pam Belluck
March 19, 2020

A new study reports that people who became sick from the coronavirus in the Chinese city where the outbreak began likely had a lower death rate than previously thought.

Lots of methodological questions, of course. Do we know the Chinese didn’t undercount deaths? They, eventually, reacted like it was a massive catastrophe.

There are two case fatality rates of interest: with and without intensive care. When the hospitals overload, things can get very bad.

The study, published Thursday in the journal Nature Medicine, calculated that people with coronavirus symptoms in Wuhan, China, had a 1.4 percent likelihood of dying. Some previous estimates have ranged from 2 percent to 3.4 percent. …

The new study calculated estimates based on cases in Wuhan as of Feb. 29, when there had been 48,557 confirmed patients and 2,169 deaths. The risk of death increased with age, “unlike any previously reported pandemic or seasonal influenza,” the researchers wrote. …

The risk of developing symptomatic infection itself also increased with age, about 4 percent per year for people aged 30 to 60, the study said. The authors estimated that people 60 and older were twice as likely to develop symptoms as people aged 30 to 59 and that people under 30 have about one-sixth the chance of developing symptoms from the infection. That suggests, as has other research, that many young people may be unknowingly infected and able to spread the virus to others. …

Do we see the same extreme age pattern in the U.S.? How contagious are the asymptomatic young?

The findings “indicate that Covid-19 transmission is difficult to control,” they wrote, adding that “we might expect at least half of the population to be infected, even with aggressive use of community mitigation measures.”

At Marginal Revolution, Tyler Cowen writes:

1. Segregating old people, and letting others go about their regular business. Given how many older people now work (and vote), and how many employees in nursing homes are young, I’ve yet to see a good version of this plan, but if you favor it please do try to write one up. One of you suggested taking everyone over the age of 65 and encasing them in bubble wrap, or something.

 
Hide 127 CommentsLeave a Comment
Commenters to Ignore...to FollowEndorsed Only
Trim Comments?
    []
  1. Yngvar says:

    Greetings From Norway (it’s not no sunny anymore)

    It’s no looking good.

    Fridays prayers are banned.

    Synagogue meeting are banned.

    Sunday service are banned.

    Its… watch out US

  2. ” that people with coronavirus symptoms in Wuhan, China,”

    Why not just write “confirmed cases”?

  3. One guy there says we should punch old people’s driver’s licenses, and slash their tires if necessary. Frankly it seems kinder than letting them suffocate to death.

    • Replies: @Anon
  4. A couple weeks ago, the most alarmist models were predicting that USA is 11-days lag behind Italy.

    USA is tracking close now to this 11-day lag prediction in terms of CASES (meaningless) but NOT in terms of what really matters: seriously-ill on ventilators, bilateral interstitial pneumonia cases. The most alarmist models have been falsified and should be discarded.

    Italy is an outlier.

    Maybe HBD:

    • Agree: AnonAnon, Franz
    • Replies: @AnonAnon
    , @anonymous
  5. Bill P says:

    Is it possible that a previous infection or vaccination that occurred some 60 years ago is making older folks have a bad reaction to this virus?

    I’ve read that prior infections can make people’s immune systems react in the wrong way to subsequent, different ones on occasion. I seem to recall something about measles and the 1918 pandemic.

    The reason this seems plausible to me is the fact that kids are apparently unaffected, including newborns, whereas they usually get hit hard like the elderly.

    If it isn’t some prior virus, maybe it’s the old polio vaccine or something like it.

    • Agree: Coemgen
    • Thanks: Sincerity.net
    • Replies: @I, Libertine
  6. Anonymous[241] • Disclaimer says:

    Segregating the higly vulnerable (not only the elderly but also immunocompromised) is the way to go. You would also have to confine the carers in the nursing homes so they do not become infected outside and carry the virus back inside. Triple their salaries for the duration.

  7. Ganderson says:

    Lock those old febes up, I say! Ship ‘em to the Yukon, or the desert! What? That includes me? Uh oh…

  8. @Bill P

    I, too, have been wondering why this infection, unlike others, kills the elderly but doesn’t kill babies. You may be on to something. I dunno.

    Usually, it’s the opposite. Old people have residual immunity from a decades-old outbreak of the infection, or something similar, that younger people lack.

  9. CAL2 says:

    Cowen is being obtuse.

    – You do a lockdown people who are 65 and older and people with other serious health issues. Which is cheaper, paying 65 and older people who work to stay home or the entire economy? Also, most people that age who work simply do so to keep busy or for a little extra cash. Which is more important, staying alive or minimum wage from WalMart?

    – If they locked down the nursing homes, they can screen staff and the few visitors they allow. Also, if the staff wears masks, washes hands, and acts responsibly, it shouldn’t be a problem. It’s not like the staff got older because of the lockdown and is safer.

    – Does Cowen have a plan that doesn’t crash the economy for a bad flu season level of deaths?

    – He complains that we need more data. Well, look at what we know so far. The Diamond Princess ended up with a 17.5% infection rate and of those infected a 1.85% mortality rate. South Korea is looking at a 1% mortality rate of those infected. The first was a closed environment and the second is a country with trustworthy stats. Meanwhile, Italy is a mess because they count anyone who tests positive with it as dying from it even if they died falling down the stairs. Let me know if this sounds like a reason to shutdown the country.

    • Agree: BB753
    • Replies: @obwandiyag
  10. Medical science is very tricky. One of the reasons why medicine is so expensive is that for the most part medications and treatments have to be prescribed after a one-on-one evaluation process in which a history is taken and there is a review of systems to make sure that every aspect of the person’s health and lifestyle is taken into account, and vital signs like blood pressure, pulse, respirations, temperature, oxygen saturation, and weight.

    And then it is pretty much routine to have a CBC (complete blood count) and BMP (basic metabolic panel) performed, and often other tests like kidney and liver functions tests. And then perhaps an ECG if there is a risk of heart involvement.

    To some extent it is an art rather than a science, and even if the medications are correctly prescribed, there is no guarantee that the patient will follow instructions and take them correctly.

    Now every armchair analyst and politician wants to be an epidemiology expert without ever meeting a patient. Straws are clutched at. Perhaps there is a correlation between proximity to a ski lift and vulnerability to the virus. Perhaps the virus only seriously affects people born before 1950, so people born in 1951 are safe. Perhaps the virus is God’s way of punishing smokers.

    • Replies: @CCZ
  11. Garlic says:

    If 1.4% of those with symptoms are dying, the death rate of all infected must be considerably lower, as the asymptomatic are not included in the calculation.

    • Replies: @ia
  12. George says:

    “1. Segregating old people, and letting others go about their regular business. Given how many older people now work (and vote), and how many employees in nursing homes are young, I’ve yet to see a good version of this plan,

    but if you favor it please do try to write one up. ”

    What a Red. Everything under scientific socialism has to have a detailed 5yr plan. Here’s a simple plan, let individuals themselves decide what they will do.

    IMO, Cowen advocated an insane set of policies and refuses to admit everything he advocated was counter productive and injurious. I doubt he will be able to climb down. Somewhat like the witch hunts, he is unable to believe his fears were 100% invented.

    Let’s start by reopening Bondi beach:
    Bondi Beach in Australia closes after crowds ignore coronavirus warnings

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-australia-closing-bondi-beach-crowds-ignore-social-distancing-guidelines/

    Here in the US reopen businesses to anyone under say 35. I would prefer removing all restrictions but that might be too much of a climb down for the people who destroyed the economy to accept in one lump. People over 35 can still get take out and eat it in the parking lot.

  13. LondonBob says:

    My HK contact thought they overreacted to the coronavirus because of the criticism the government got over SARS, authoritarian governments have to be very sensitive to public opinion. Also the initial data is poor so overreacting is sensible.

    https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium.MAGAZINE-israeli-expert-trump-is-right-about-covid-19-who-is-wrong-1.8691031

    An Israeli expert also thinks there has been a massive overreaction and herd immunity is inevitable.

  14. Data analyst Aaron Ginn, a big success in data crunching for web marketing, posted a detailed piece about how the coronavirus threat is overblown, the economic and social damage from the draconian lockdown measures will be far worse … original article censored by Medium but still on ZeroHedge
    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-evidence-over-hysteria

    Median age of the dead in Italy is 80, with 99% having other severe health conditions, average being 2-3 other health-ravaging issues

    Ginn presents a bunch of numbers to argue the virus is less generally contagious than claimed, and seems to be subject to ‘Farr’s Law’ on epidemics, predictable mathematical decline, on a fairly quick timetable

    Ginn points out how South Korea took a lot of measures without shutting down normal business & the economy, which is needlessly and fanatically destructive … would be better to spend funds on medical gear and improvement than bail out businesses and people

    For those who enjoy a more edgy take – as many Unz readers do – Veterans Today has a striking ‘sarin nerve gas mimics Covid-19’ death multiplier story, recalling US Senate material on nerve gas live ‘experiments’ in NYC subway stations making US citizens sick

    VT argues that death rates less than 1% are normal for Covid-19, and what is over that, per international intel agency chatter, is micro-drones, delivering low doses of pneumonia and heart-failure-inducing sarin nerve gas, creating a Covid-19-infected death rate over 1%, and that Italy, Spain, China, Iran, NYC area etc have been under this kind of chemical weapons attack

    Which explains why people are dying despite the ventilators and a profile where the ventilators should work, because what is shutting down the lungs or heart is the nerve gas

    https://www.veteranstoday.com/2020/03/21/russia-us-army-israel-using-low-dose-sarin-gas-to-supplement-cv19-deaths/

    • Replies: @sayless
  15. unit472 says:

    Of course China ( or really the CCP) had no qualms about shipping bodies to the crematoriums with no diagnosis other than ‘pneumonia’ or sealing people in apartment towers where infections occurred. Wonder how many bodies they found in them later?

  16. Anon[195] • Disclaimer says:

    OT

    Among the many hilarious silver linings to the plague is the disappearance of wokeness and social justice from the news. I think wokeness may sustain permanent damage. One test will be how in-the-pipe woke books are received and publicized in the coming months. Also, universities seem to be melting down, and I question how they can charge the big bucks for online courses.

    One thing that had me LOLing is that museums are shutting down only months after the big purge of old white male art, and its replacement with crap art of color, as well as the purge of young white Ivy League female curators by curators of color. Hahaha.

  17. Dan Smith says:

    I like Tyler Cowens plan a lot. Not sure if I’m smart enough to spell out the logistics. Given the fact that the virus spreads so easily in asymptomatic people, testing would need to focus on anyone in contact with us Boomers, or else stay away.

  18. charlie says:

    When is someone going to notice that locking up your own population is not “flattening” the curve.

    This is day 14 of a lockdown in lombardy, or day 12 for for all of italy. You should start to see a decline in new cases 6-10 days after the lockdown starts. In lombardy, on March 8 there were 769 new cases. Yesterday there were 3200 new cases.

    Same is true for rest of italy. Lazio (6 million people around rome). March 10: 14 new cases. March 21 –182 new cases.

    The reports you are citing is evidence for that. Extremely high number of people who are showing zero symptoms. Unclear how they are spreading the virus.

    And in reality, the what is spreading the virus is the medical system. I don’t think you’ll peak until 80-90 percent of medical staff has been infected and developed antibodies. Again that sounds awful but the reality is that for 75% of cases it is a mild cold.

    In fact what we need now is a good study on how to infect people — give them a low dose of virus — enough to develop and immune response but not enough to kill them. Do that for everyone who works in a hospital. Lock up every family that has medical people in them and give them each 50K for the trouble.

    The other question that needs to be asked is what percentage of people being hospitalized for this are overweight?

    • Replies: @Cloudbuster
  19. Lugash says:

    Is there any plausible working theory why Hubei province got infected but the rest of China essentially escaped unscathed? I don’t see how Wuhan got hit as hard as it did without any spillover to other provinces.

    • Replies: @snorlax
    , @Anonymous
    , @Mr. Anon
  20. HA says:

    Note that whatever the death rate is, it is presumably the probability of dying each time you get infected.

    With the previously known coronaviruses (like the ones that are part of the grab-bag of diseases that make up the common cold), your immunity lasts a year or two, and then you can get it again.

    It’s too soon to see if that is what happens with this virus, but it’s a reasonable starting guess. So even if the lethality of this new virus is half a percent, so that this season is a nothingburger, if it can get several bites of the apple every year or other year, so to speak, that small probability can still accrue up into something significant over a decade or more. Moreover, if you have any complications during any of its subsequent bites — say residual scarring in the lungs as sometimes happens with pneumonia — then the next time it hits you, you’re in that unlucky category of “weakened” people with “complications” who are the vast majority of those dying in Italy and elsewhere, which means everyone else can shrug off your death by saying you were at death’s door anyway, and really, you just need to die already, boomer. Pretty neat trick, huh?

    That doesn’t mean we should all just go kill ourselves now. Hopefully, we’ll get a vaccine at some point fairly soon. Hopefully, this thing will eventually mutate into something milder the way that Spanish seems to have eventually done and the way viruses often do. Or else, it will stay restricted to camel-lovers, like MERS. Note that SARS hasn’t killed anyone in over a decade, so that’s hopeful, too. Maybe the immunity you get from this virus will last longer if you get mildly exposed to it repeatedly, and maybe that’s what is already factored into all this talk of herd immunity. But can I be sure about any of that? No. I’m not going to go out of my way to grossly exaggerate things like a certain MD who posts around here.

    So stay on your toes. Most everyone who reads this already knows that reality doesn’t care about racism and making sure everything is evenly distributed across the melanin spectrum. But guess what? Reality doesn’t care about the economy, either. It also doesn’t care about your civil rights. Sure, it’s fine that you care about those things, and I certainly do, but it doesn’t mean some hard choices won’t have to be made, same as goes with racial inequality, and maybe this time around, you and the ones you love are the ones on the short end of the stick. Reality doesn’t care about that, either.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad
  21. UK says:

    Anyone else had the symptoms of a cold recently?

    I’ve had a sore throat, a dry cough, fatigue and pronounced dizziness occasionally; but all without a fever.

    Supposedly I met someone who met someone who had COVID-19. It was at a nightclub, as you do.

    Anyway, given the country that I am now locked in, it seems improbable that I have anything more than a nasty version of the common cold, but, despite this, I still cannot help but think that I am infected with CCP flu.

    Even though the percentage of people with similar symptoms who have COVID-19 is probably 0.1%.

    Without a fever I cannot get a test, so I guess I’ll have this and then the more celebrated illness later in the year. Which is annoying.

    Hypochondria comes to us all.

  22. Ann K. says:

    Meanwhile, Chinese phone companies lost 15 million accounts so far this year:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1241082360323596289

    From anonymousconservative.com.

  23. Segregating old people, and letting others go about their regular business. Given how many older people now work (and vote),

    So that’s the October Surprise, Corona Lite with voter suppression of the one group more supportive of Trump than the others.

  24. Dear everybody,

    Please stop panicking. The coronapanic is a mass hypnosis event.

    Trauma based mind control.

    So snap out of it… Turn off your Telescreen… Get out in the sun for a little while…

    Take a deep breath… Relax… Have a juniper berry liquor and quinine water…

    Or whatever you do to relax…

    Twenty seven thousand Americans have tested positive for Covid19.

    27000. In a country of 327000000.

    [MORE]

    27000/327000000 = 0.0000825688

    And 348 people have died.

    348/327000000 = 0.00000106422

    Epidemic = affecting or tending to affect a disproportionately large number of individuals within a population, community, or region at the same time.

    Is eight thousandths of one percent a disproportionately large number?

    In 2016 37,461 people were killed in 34,436 motor vehicle crashes, an average of 102 per day.

    The panic is worse than the virus. The panic has already created all sorts of unnecessary chaos. If this continues, it will lead to another round of evictions, foreclosures and ultimately homelessness. It already looks like it will take years for the “market” to recover.

    This is completely preventable. Completely unnecessary.

    The sky is not falling.

    Covid19 is easily curable, with a simple inexpensive treatment.

    Intravenous vitamin C cures Covid19, just like it cures all other viral infections.

    Dr. Mao has been using large doses of IVC to treat patients with acute pancreatitis, sepsis, surgical wound healing, and other medical conditions for over 10 years. This time around when Covid-19 broke out, he and other experts thought of VC and recommended VC for the treatment of moderate to severe cases of Covid-19 patients. The recommendation was accepted by the Shanghai Expert Team early on. All Covid-19 patients in the Shanghai area have been treated in Shanghai Public Health Center, there has been a total of 358 Covid-19 patients as of March 17th, 2020.

    Dr. Mao stated that his group treated ~50 cases of moderate to severe cases of Covid-19 infection with high dose IVC. The IVC dosing was around 10,000 mg – 20,000 mg a day for 7-10 days, with 10,000 mg for moderate cases and 20,000 for more severe cases by the pulmonary status (mostly the oxygenation index) and the coagulation status. All patients who received IVC improved and there was no mortality. Compared to the average of 30-day hospital stay for all Covid-19 patients, those patients who received high dose IVC had a hospital stay that‘s about 3-5 days shorter than the overall patients. Dr. Mao discussed one severe case in particular who was deteriorating rapidly. He gave a bolus of 50,000 mg Vit C IV over a period of 4 hours. They watched the patient’s pulmonary (oxygenation index) status stabilizing and improving in real-time. There were no side effects reported to all the cases treated with high dose IVC.

    http://www.drwlc.com/blog/2020/03/18/hospital-treatment-of-serious-and-critical-covid-19-infection-with-high-dose-vitamin-c/

    There is also abundant evidence that humidity cures the respiratory illness caused by the coronavirus. This is another cheap effective treatment. So everybody can relax about the virus.

    Now the bad news…

    Unfortunately, much of the United States is a 3rd world country. The United States does not have a functioning healthcare system. It has a system designed to exploit illness for maximum profit. To siphon wealth from the many to the few. The psychopaths in “government” and “business” do not care how many people are harmed with their incompetence, avarice and careerism.

    I fear that this event has been engineered by the feudal overlords as cover to reset their ponzi scheme bubble economy and inflict maximum damage to the people of America and the world. The media is creating a panic where none should be. The glorious overlords thrive on fear and chaos. They will not let this opportunity go to waste. They will use this as an excuse to steal more wealth from the people and to further erode the freedoms Americans used to cherish.

    So, let’s all snap out of this hypnosis, and get to work fixing this so we can get back to normal before we make it worse with unnecessary panic. We have work to do watering the tree of liberty.

    There is no reason that intravenous vitamin C is not more widely available and used more often to treat and cure illness.

    It is very safe, even at very large doses, and very effective.

  25. Sean says:

    Lots of methodological questions, of course. Do we know the Chinese didn’t undercount deaths? They, eventually, reacted like it was a massive catastrophe.

    As I said this morning, I think it is clear far more people had it in China (and Italy) than their testing picked up and so the ratio of coronavirus-19 cases to deaths from that virus in their statistics is disproportionately ‘infected and admitted to hospital’ to deaths, instead of total number actually infected to deaths from that infection.

    The closest to blanket testing has been in Germany (and maybe the US), so their statistics have a much more correct ratio of infected to deaths from coronavirus. The low absolute number of deaths is not going to skyrocket in the same way that Italy’s did when they had the same number of confirmed cases because the Italians’ statistics for numbers infected were much more of an underestimate. Still are.

    https://berlinspectator.com/2020/03/22/how-good-are-germanys-top-corona-crisis-managers/
    Bloody good. Merkel has a Phd of course and it is a sort of physics /chemistry one so she is really smart. Germany is a very decentralized country, and they have regional labs rather that a central bureaucracy. There is a massive amount of testing going on and German doctors test and get result back fast so know what they are dealing with and likely really are saving people who would die in other places where the ethos has been less favourable to the building up of massive medical infrastructure distributed throughout the land They have the capacity to do 160,000 coronavirus tests a week. A German invented the test used worldwide, and he is on Merkel’s team.

    Martin Rees, he who a decade ago predicted a million deaths from a bio threat by 2020, said the Japs’ mass evacuation after Fukushima was way over the top. Old folk don’t have to worry that much about radiation. Elderly peasants could have been left in their homes. If those who–absent coronavirus-19–were going to die between now and Jan 2o21 die in the next couple of months, and many skilled staff are off sick (because the average middle age person is floored by it) then ‘just in time’ supply chains might well break down, and the medical services run out of medicines to treat secondary bacterial infections ECT. Then younger people might well start dying. So to protect everyone the oldsters must be kept away from the virus and check out in good time and good order.

    As must we all.

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
    , @Dumbo
  26. UK says:

    Some Israeli politician speaking in English (why?) gives a simple explanation of what needs to be done. Seems pretty common sense straightforward.

  27. George says:

    lowest mortality rate of the 10 countries most severely hit by the pandemic: 0.3% compared with 9% in Italy and 4.6% in the UK.

    Germany’s low coronavirus mortality rate intrigues experts
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/22/germany-low-coronavirus-mortality-rate-puzzles-experts

  28. snorlax says:
    @Lugash

    They quickly locked down all domestic travel into and out of Wuhan, internal migration is already restricted by their internal passport system, and they’re lying about the numbers.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    , @Forbes
  29. Anon[278] • Disclaimer says:

    I just calculated the US death rate according to today’s figures, and it’s 1.28%. It’s been pretty low for some time now.

    Although smoking may make you more prone to getting Wu Flu, we do something here in the US that other countries might not bother with. We kick our smokers outdoors. So not only do we have fewer people with second-hand smoke problems, meaning they have better lungs than those trapped inside with a bunch of smokers, we also have smokers who have been hanging around outside during the winter and getting more sunlight than they usually would. Our smokers may been getting more sunlight (Vitamin D) than those smokers who just stay inside. Good Vitamin D levels are protective against viruses.

    A second item is that our Vitamin D requirements were rejiggered a few years ago. We used to get around 400 mg of D2 in our vitamin pills. It’s now more like 800-1000 mg of D3, and D3 is a lot more potent than D2. In fact, I think it’s too high and can give you joint problems. However, we likely have a population with fewer Vitamin D deficiencies than we used to have.

  30. Anonymous[158] • Disclaimer says:

    Good news: Hydroxychloroquine is an amazing drug. (It is used off label for rheumatoid arthritis for along time)

    It has a suppressing effect on auto immune overreaction.

    Therefore it can reduce the cytokine storm syndrome in the most critical patients.

    Bad news: The chloroquine supplies around the world have gone into scarcity already. Another crazy demand shock. Manufacturing ramping up but it will take time. Thanks for off shoring another industry congress!

  31. ic1000 says:

    “we might expect at least half of the population to be infected [with Covid-19], even with aggressive use of community mitigation measures.”

    How does this square with the claim that lockdowns in Wuhan and other parts of China have succeeded in lowering R from 2.5 to well under 1, allowing the partial relaxation of restrictions, and the return to work of many people?

    The government is claiming that new cases have fallen to near zero and that most of them are due to unknowingly-infected people returning from abroad. This is disputed by some Chinese on social media.

    Obviously, if there are large numbers of asymptomatic, untested, infected young people that are unknown to authorities, R immediately jumps back up as soon as restrictions are relaxed. That means that a jump in the numbers of infected sick people must shortly follow.

    Perhaps that isn’t happening because the initial premise is wrong. If the premise is right, there should be an explosion of new respiratory illnesses overwhelming Chinese hospitals, about now.

    • Replies: @HA
    , @Forbes
    , @anon
  32. Anonymous[158] • Disclaimer says:

    Update from France on the Didier Raoult drug cocktail… (full steam ahead)

    ——–snip

    CORONAVIRUS COVID-19 EPIDEMIC Home COVID-19 Coronavirus Epidemic March 22, 2020 Marseille, March 22, 2020

    Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak

    In the current context of the spread of the Covid-19 coronavirus epidemic on French territory and worldwide. In accordance with the Hippocratic Oath that we have taken, we obey our duty as a doctor. We provide our patients with the best care for the diagnosis and treatment of a disease. We respect the rules of the art and the most recently acquired data of medical science.

    We have decided : · For all febrile patients who come to consult us, to carry out tests for the diagnosis of infection with Covid 19; · For all infected patients, many of whom are not very symptomatic, have lung lesions on the CT scan, to propose the disease as soon as possible, as soon as the diagnosis is made: – a treatment with the hydroxychloroquine combination (200 mg x 3 per day for 10 days) + Azithromycin (500 mg on the 1st day then 250 mg per day for 5 more days), as part of the precautions for use of this association (including an electrocardiogram on D0 and D2), and outside of marketing authorization. In cases of severe pneumonia, a broad-spectrum antibiotic is also used.

    We believe that it is not ethical that this association should not be systematically included in therapeutic trials concerning the treatment of Covid-19 infection in France.

    Pr Philippe Brouqui, Pr Jean-Christophe Lagier, Pr Matthieu Million, Pr Philippe Parola, Pr Didier Raoult, Dr Marie Hocquart

    ——-/snip

  33. Maybe our ability to extend the life expectancy of people over 50 is due for a breakdown?

  34. If you’re looking for a non-conspiratorial take on this, then according to one of the WHO joint mission reports produced in late February, the CFR in Wuhan before February 1st was 17 and after February 1st it was below 1.

    That’s a dramatic drop, even taking into account the obvious fact that some people who caught it after February 1st didn’t have time to die before the report was produced, which is something one would hope the joint mission realized when writing the report (but perhaps didn’t).

    What does it mean? Maybe that the best way to lower the CFR is for hospitals to know what they are up against and to be prepared with plenty of beds, ventilators, masks, medicines, etc.

    This thing seems to hit particularly hard when you either don’t know what it is (Wuhan, in early days) or you aren’t prepared for it (Italy, today) or you don’t care (Iran).

    For those countries who are well-prepared for it, like Singapore and South Korea and Germany(?), the death rate is still many times higher than the flu, but not at the levels of the Spanish Flu.

    • Agree: vhrm
  35. Anonymous[367] • Disclaimer says:
    @Lugash

    On February 19th Steve Bannon gave a speech in Florida where he said Wuhan “is like the Pittsburgh of China” and “China’s Deplorables” who hate the Chinese Communist Party. Wuhan has been crapped on by Beijing, Shanghai for 4000 years. Also said millions more are dead there than we realize.

    So who knows. Common meme on the internet says hundreds of thousands of cell phone lines went dead in China over the first 2 months of 2020, and haven’t been used since.

    • Replies: @Lot
    , @Lugash
  36. @snorlax

    …and they’re lying about the numbers.

    Are they avoiding the number four in particular? They are notorious tetraphobes.

    How Chinese Superstition About the Number 4 Makes Beijing Traffic Worse


    LUCKY AND UNLUCKY CHINESE NUMBERS

    And Italy:

    “Seventeen” is believed to be an unlucky number in Italy because when written in Roman digits (XVII) that could be rearranged to “VIXI” which in Latin can be an euphemism for “I am dead”.

    https://www.todayifoundout.com/index.php/2011/01/why-the-number-four-is-considered-unlucky-in-some-east-asian-cultures/

    • Replies: @AnotherDad
    , @Forbes
  37. HA says:
    @ic1000

    “How does this square with the claim that lockdowns in Wuhan and other parts of China have succeeded in lowering R from 2.5 to well under 1, allowing the partial relaxation of restrictions, and the return to work of many people?”

    (Warning: clicking on link takes you to Guardian):

    Wuhan is still largely in lockdown [as of the 19th], though some people are being allowed back to work, and nationwide there are still strict controls, for fear the virus might roar back.

    Many restaurants and shops require patrons to have their temperatures checked and their information logged before entering, or there are quotas for entry. Some buildings will only let in those who have got the go-ahead from a software called “Health code” that gives individuals one of three colours, based on their recent travel history.

    In other words, even “partial relaxation” in China is something that would still be regarded as Orwellian and draconian in the West. Sure, you can push for the government to slap “health ratings” on different people which determine whether or not they can enter a given establishment, but that’s going to be a hard sell in the West, or else, so overloaded with PC qualifiers and exceptions that it would be worthless from a health perspective.

  38. CCZ says:
    @Jonathan Mason

    “Perhaps there is a correlation between proximity to a ski lift and vulnerability to the virus.”

    In Japan, with so far a low total infection number (currently at 1,086), skiing was a significant initial exposure vector.

    From a month or so ago when Japan had approximately 250 confirmed Covid-19:

    Hokkaido region, known for ski resorts and vast forests, has seen at least 63 coronavirus cases, including two deaths, and accounts for more than a quarter of all cases in Japan, apart from those on the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

    The region’s ski resorts attract many wealthy Asian tourists, including from China.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
  39. Anonymous[158] • Disclaimer says:

    More good anecdotal evidence…

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-8139205/Losts-Daniel-Dae-Kim-51-credits-antimalarial-drug-secret-weapon-against-coronavirus.html

    Kim’s personal physician prescribed him a ‘drug cocktail’ that consisted of the antiviral medicine TamiFlu, the antibiotic Azithromycin, a Glycopyrrolate inhaler, and the antimalarial drug Hydroxychloroquine.

    So this is a slight modification on the Didier Raoult recipe.

    BTW The Trump twitter thread on this topic yesterday is hugely entertaining… heads exploding everywhere. Medical professionals pretending hydroxychloroquine is extremely dangerous for off label use …

  40. IL now in lockdown from Gov. “Jelly Belly” Pritzker Executive Order.

    Pretty cool:

    Liquor stores, weed dispensaries and gun stores all are deemed “essential” and will be able to sell their products to the public.

    https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/pritzker-illinoisans-must-shelter-place

    Funny, isn’t it, that Wal-Mart discontinued ammo sales to their customers, MANAGEMENT clearly considering their customers worthy of contempt. Same with United and Delta airlines cutting their ties with NRA. Managers despising the proles.

  41. Mr. Anon says:
    @Lugash

    And why is northern Italy, specifically Lombardy, so badly hit, but not southern Italy which is the poorer part of the country. The lockdown came late, so there was plenty of opportunity for travel. Is there normally little travel between northern and southern Italy?

  42. @HA

    I’ve mentioned to several people that i likely result here will be that the CDC will have to guess about a SARS Cov2 strain to put in the seasonal flu vaccine just like they do for the “regular” flu.

    And, of course, it won’t be perfect so every so often you’ll see big misses and a much higher death rate. And we’ll quickly be used to this– and won’t be locking down the economy in panic. It will be “corona was a bitch this year, killed off Uncle Ned.”

    Life expectancy will be lower, but again almost entirely by killing off the elderly earlier, which honestly isn’t a big deal. I remember the 60s when life expectancy was much much lower–much lower than this will make it–and life was fine. (The girls were skinnier, cuter and didn’t have ugly tats.)

    And life expectancy will start ticking back up again even with this, the same way it has been with improvement in managing chronic disease. And then eventually science will get a handle on this thing and life expectancy will spring back up more. And then science will unpack and make improvements on aging …. and pow.

    • Replies: @HA
  43. Rahan says:

    The European countries who remember communism reacted with fast lockdowns just one step away from the Asian ones. They still have a living memory of how bad a situation can get, while the West has completely forgotten how bad a situation can get.

    Eastern Europeans are also very likely hoping to compensate for lack of fancy medical infrastructure (and for chronic stealing from health funds as is the way there) by stopping the spread in its tracks through brute restriction enforcement, before it becomes an Italian/Spanish type of wildfire.

    Let’s see how it works out. This year will show us very visibly the pros and cons of many forms of social organization as they are practiced today. It’s not impossible that in 2020, the lowly Albanians and Romanians will turn out to be able to react better to this than the estrogenic dog faced pony soldier committees running today’s Finland and Sweden.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
  44. @Reg Cæsar

    I made the mistake of sitting in seat 8D in the way down here–which after a few years of flying Frontier (i’m cheap) i’d determined to be about the sweet spot for having an empty row nearby.

    A older Chinese couple sat down next to me–the gentleman with a slight cough. Fortunately i had my mask.

    I’ve told all my friends–don’t pick row 8.

  45. @Pincher Martin

    I suspect it’s less that Iran doesn’t care and more that Iran doesn’t have the ability to respond properly.

    But it’s a classic arrogant American take to assume the former. An American would sooner assume Iran is evil than assume Iran is incompetent and/or without sufficient resources (due in part to American/Israeli crypto-war, naturally).

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
  46. HA says:
    @AnotherDad

    “And life expectancy will start ticking back up again even with this, the same way it has been with improvement in managing chronic disease.”

    I have no argument with that. But my worry with all the naysaying and pleas for boomer extinction I see on this site is that it ignores the tail risk, which contains some really disturbing stuff if one bothers to look. Note that the vast majority of drunk drivers arrive home safely. And the odds of surviving a round of Russian roulette are over 80%. It is what’s in that small unfortunate part of the probability distribution that should determine our approach to driving drunk and playing with guns, not the fact that it’s all probably going to be fine this time around.

    In particular, as Taiwan/SKorea/Singapore/Japan (not to mention Israel) already learned with SARS and MERS (and the West didn’t), this coronavirus won’t be the last time China’s Island-of-Dr-Moreau wet markets or Africa’s fondness for bushmeat unleash some vile biology experiment on the world, regardless of their promises that that kind of thing no longer goes on, and that next one may be the one that even the naysayers can’t ignore (though I’m sure they will initially try). Once every century or so, that kind of thing seems to happen. Maybe it’ll happen in a Chinese (or American) pig farm or chicken farm instead. It could even come from a bio-terrorist. In any case, numerous other Asian countries realized the odds of that happening at some point in our lifetimes were significant, and they put measures in place to respond. A lot of those measures will be regarded as far too restrictive and heavy-handed and intrusive on the part of Google and/or the government. But if that’s the case, we need to come up with private alternatives that are equally effective. I.e., when SARS and MERS came and went, we shouldn’t have just slapped ourselves on the back and put it all behind us. If people don’t want the economy to be shut down like this again, then people need to put some measures in place in the way those other countries did. That’s not me being an alarmist, that’s just me being cautious.

    So even if coronavirus is a nothingburger this year — which I’m still hoping for — it doesn’t mean the naysayers were right all along and it doesn’t mean the virus won’t be around to cause damage in the future. And most importantly, it doesn’t we’re out of the woods long-term. We’ll have lots of stuff that needs to be done regardless.

    • Agree: ic1000
    • Replies: @Charon
    , @AnotherDad
  47. danand says:

    “Lots of methodological questions, of course.”

    In his press conference yesterday, California Governor Newsom told us random SARS-CoV-2 testing has been conducted in 3 California counties. This means of course, we now roughly know the percentage of asymptomatic persons among us. Unfortunately Newsom did not divulge the numbers, and I have not been able to uncover them online.

    The video should start at the point he addresses the tests:

    • Replies: @Kratoklastes
  48. From the NYT article: The risk of death increased with age, “unlike any previously reported pandemic or seasonal influenza,” the researchers wrote. …

    Don’t understand.

    • Replies: @HA
  49. Forbes says:
    @snorlax

    They quickly locked down–except for the 5 million who evacuated the city before the quarantine.

    Either no one infected were among those 5 million evacuated–nearly 40% of the Wuhan population–or another explanation is warranted. Data manipulation is one possibility.

    Another explanation that should be considered: Contagion is much lower than assumed. Also, testing is inadequate to capture the full picture. Only recorded deaths are dispositive.

    Five million dispersed amongst the wider country, low contagion, other isolation steps, mask wearing, and those evacuating being younger, healthier–not elderly or compromised health–could literally disappear in 1.5 billion population.

  50. Forbes says:
    @ic1000

    we might expect at least half of the population to be infected [with Covid-19], even with aggressive use of community mitigation measures

    Seems an overwrought and unwarranted assumption. Less than 20% of the passengers and crew on the Princess Diamond cruise ship were infected–as all aboard were tested. They were confined together, with communal dining facilities–a petrie dish for contamination and contagion.

    And while the ship passengers and crew were quarantined from land, they were isolated together–probably the least ideal community mitigation measure imaginable. If Covid-19 were as contagious as the above suggests, the ship should’ve been ravaged with the virus. It wasn’t.

    • Replies: @HA
  51. Forbes says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    And they don’t like 13 and 23 either.

  52. How many of the politicians who downplayed Coronavirus will catch it?

    Ron Paul is the latest.

  53. In China, they care about their 80-year-olds.

    In the US, it’s all just vile sociopathic phone-swiping children screaming OK Boomer.

    Nothing new. US assholes are trained from birth to hate their elders. It’s part of the scam.

    • Replies: @XYZ (no Mr.)
  54. danand says:

    WTH, Cuomo says the drugs Rachel Maddow laughed at Trump for touting Friday actually work? Wow, you know it’s serious when “Orange man bad” is less important than saving lives.

    C9E891A3-4850-4852-A8AA-DBC346A86180

    Cuomo states that “The theory is that there is a low coronavirus infection rate in Africa because they are already taking these drugs for malaria treatment”.

  55. @Sean

    Bloody good. Merkel has a Phd of course and it is a sort of physics /chemistry one so she is really smart. Germany is a very decentralized country, and they have regional labs rather that a central bureaucracy. There is a massive amount of testing going on and German doctors test and get result back fast so know what they are dealing with and likely really are saving people who would die in other places where the ethos has been less favourable to the building up of massive medical infrastructure distributed throughout the land They have the capacity to do 160,000 coronavirus tests a week. A German invented the test used worldwide, and he is on Merkel’s team.

    So, Sean, did you forgot about our bet?

    • Replies: @Sean
  56. Lot says:
    @Anonymous

    1. The cell phone data isn’t a meme, it’s verified right from the 3 major cell phone companies.

    2. It amounts to a 1% decrease in users after years of slow growth.

    3. I assume China has prepaid cheapskate cell companies like Cricket, Virgin Mobile, Tracphone, etc. A shift to them for budget reasoms probably isn’t reflected in the big cell stats.

    4. Easy way for a elderly couple to cut expenses is to share a cell phone, or even share a sim card but have separate phones.

    5. Migrant workers thrown out of work went completely broke after Chinese New Year by the millions.

    Conclusion: I don’t think the data reflects a mass unreported die-off of millions. I do think China greatly undereported WuFlu deaths, but by about 50-100,000, not millions.

  57. @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    I suspect it’s less that Iran doesn’t care and more that Iran doesn’t have the ability to respond properly.

    But it’s a classic arrogant American take to assume the former.

    Shut your piehole. The Iranian leadership showed they didn’t care in the early days of the coronavirus spread into their country.

    From The New Yorker, a source not known for its jingoist international stance:

    Politics may have played a role in the government’s handling of the health crisis, Alaei, the health-policy expert, told me. The outbreak coincided with two major milestones—the anniversary of Iran’s revolution, on February 11th, and the parliamentary election, on February 21st. “The government didn’t want to acknowledge that they had a coronavirus outbreak because they feared it would impact participation in these two events,” he said. “So for weeks there was a huge silence.” Less than forty-three per cent of Iranian voters turned out for the election, the lowest rate of participation since the 1979 revolution. Both voters and poll workers were photographed wearing masks.

    “It was the political decision that led to this outbreak in Iran,” Alaei said. “It’s very unfortunate, as Iran has a very well-established infrastructure for the health system and well-educated doctors.” Alaei was imprisoned in 2008 for “communicating with the enemy,” running espionage rings, and trying to “launch a velvet revolution” against the government in Tehran. He spent thirty months in the notorious Evin Prison. He moved to the United States after his release.

    Idiot.

  58. J1234 says:

    1. Segregating old people, and letting others go about their regular business. Given how many older people now work (and vote), and how many employees in nursing homes are young, I’ve yet to see a good version of this plan, but if you favor it please do try to write one up. One of you suggested taking everyone over the age of 65 and encasing them in bubble wrap, or something.

    Why is it so hard for people to get their heads around the idea that it’s, first and foremost, people with certain pre-existing medical conditions, regardless of age, who are most susceptible to negative outcomes of the virus, ? Yes, old people make up the great majority of people in that group, but there are a hell of a lot of young people with asthma and other problems out there. Many kids and parents are setting themselves up for tragedy by buying into this young-people-are-immune mythology.

    https://www.today.com/health/3-young-people-coronavirus-tell-first-hand-stories-t176519?cid=referral_taboolafeed

    • Agree: JimDandy
  59. Lot says:

    Well this article didn’t age well:

    http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2020/march/16/the-coronavirus-hoax/

    Ironic not just because of Rand, but because Ron’s been a leading meme for many years.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @Mr. Anon
  60. @CCZ

    Hokkaido region, known for ski resorts and vast forests, has seen at least 63 coronavirus cases, including two deaths, and accounts for more than a quarter of all cases in Japan, apart from those on the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

    The ski connection is an odd one, with outbreaks in various different countries where there is skiing, and of course Northern Italy is not far from the Alps. But Wuhan is at low altitude.

    Possibly cold air and the combination of high altitude and lower oxygen could be a good environment for the virus to spread. Perhaps the lower barometric pressure at altitude makes the lungs more vulnerable.

    Just before he died of TB George Orwell was all set to go to a sanatorium in the Swiss Alps, where it was hoped that the altitude would give his lungs a rest. But he had a major hemorrhage and died at the age of 48 before he could go. Poor devil. I wish he had lived another 10 years.

    • Replies: @Anon
  61. HA says:
    @Henry's Cat

    From the CDC website:

    Children younger than 5 years old– especially those younger than 2– are at high risk of developing serious flu-related complications.

    That’s not what we’re seeing with this thing.

  62. @UK

    Israel is basically a Mediterranean society where old(er) folks live together with young(est). The same with Spain, Italy, Greece, SE Europe (Balkans), …

    Here you got:

    * warm relations of young people with their elders
    * crimes of passion
    * macho posturing
    * lots of smoking
    * loud communication & operatic gesticulation
    * generally sunny disposition
    * beautiful women, rarely landwhales
    * everything is (melo)drama
    * you cannot get rid of your neighbors’ inquisitiveness unless you flee to Greenland
    * Teutonic & Scandinavian female tourists chasing local boys during summer
    * life in the open, mostly coffee shops & restaurants; lots of unnecessary talk
    * noise, again too much noise….

    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
  63. Anonymous[367] • Disclaimer says:
    @Lot

    Rand had part of his lung removed after that incident in 2017 when his neighbor attacked him. Who knows how that will affect his outcome.

    • Thanks: HammerJack
  64. @Rahan

    My father-in-law in the Hungarian part of Romania told us this morning that his fellow Hungarians in the country next door are partying on the Danube like it’s 1999. According to him, Hungary is OK and not worried. Magyars are acting like this is nothing.

    (They have an expression, “Több is veszett Mohácsnál,” which means “More was lost at Mohács,” a place on the Danube where they lost practically everything centuries ago. Huns are tough but can be hard-headed. Those two characteristics often go together.)

    His daughter thinks her fellow Hungarians are crazy, but her naive American husband wonders, “Do they know something?” They do have tight borders and strong, loyal leadership, after all.

  65. Dumbo says:
    @Sean

    Bloody good. Merkel has a Phd of course and it is a sort of physics /chemistry one so she is really smart. (…) They have the capacity to do 160,000 coronavirus tests a week. A German invented the test used worldwide, and he is on Merkel’s team.

    One of those doctors who met with Merkel had the coronavirus. Now she is in quarantine and might be infected too. They just announced strict rules forbidding meetings of more than two people in all of Germany.

    • Replies: @Sean
    , @BB753
  66. HA says:
    @Forbes

    “If Covid-19 were as contagious as the above suggests, the ship should’ve been ravaged with the virus. It wasn’t.”

    On February 1, a man who’d been on the Diamond Princess [starting Jan 20] tested positive for the coronavirus…. The cruise docked in the port of Yokohama, Japan, three days later.

    By Feb 5, guests [were apparently in lockdown, claiming that] they were going “stir crazy…We’re basically being treated like we’re prisoners and criminals at the moment; that’s how we feel”…”We developed a system,” she wrote. “When we heard the carts roll down the hallway, we rushed to put on masks, swing the balcony door open, and fling the door to the hallway open for meal collection so our friends in inside staterooms across the hallway could feel some fresh air and sunshine.”

    So, an 80-year-old Japanese man (probably not a social butterfly, I’m guessing) dropped the disease off on the 20th of January, and they were all on what seems to have been strict lockdown within two weeks, including room confinement, delivered meals, and masks. To the extent the virus didn’t spread further, it might have had something to do with that. As it was, “only” 20% got infected. I’m not sure that proves or disproves much of anything regarding the contagion.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
  67. JimDandy says:

    “1. Segregating old people, and letting others go about their regular business. Given how many older people now work (and vote), and how many employees in nursing homes are young, I’ve yet to see a good version of this plan, but if you favor it please do try to write one up. One of you suggested taking everyone over the age of 65 and encasing them in bubble wrap, or something.”

    Uh… How about, for starters, exactly the way lots of old people are being segregated now, but more so? Thx.

  68. Bruno says:

    It looks like if’you test positive to the virus :

    Chances of dying
    >60 : 1 in 15 (aka the old)
    <60 : 1 in 450 (aka the young)

    Yeah for the young. But wait , chances to be badly hospitalized in a ICU bed :

    >60 : 1 in 3
    <60 : 1 in 9

    That’s really really bad news for the « young ». And people don’t know what souvenir corona will let in their body after that experience.

    And as a result, half the hospitalized are less than 60.

    The « good » hidden variable is that people being tested are the one showing symptoms and it may be a small number. But the ratio young/old would stay 1 : 1 so it doesn’t change anything for the young !!!!

    Imagine only 20% of infected show symptoms.

    That mean 300M Americans. If 60% are infected that’s 180M. Then 36M show symptoms. 27M young and 9M old. 3M old go to ICU and 3M young. Then 600 k old die. And 60k young die.

    The problem is not the dead, it’s how to deal with 6M in ICU beds and what happen to the 3M young who went through this. Sequels ?

  69. Anon[278] • Disclaimer says:

    This appears to be from a hospital in Spain:

  70. Anon[278] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jonathan Mason

    If Orwell hadn’t spent all those years roughing it, ala Down and Out in London and Paris, or in the trenches of the Spanish Civil War, or being a cop in Burma, he might not have caught tuberculosis. So it was a trade off. 25 more years of writing, vs. being able to collect his material. Maybe he would have been much better off not to have spend so much time with the lowest classes of society.

  71. @charlie

    In fact what we need now is a good study on how to infect people — give them a low dose of virus — enough to develop and immune response but not enough to kill them.

    We should develop a term for that technique. We could call it “vaccination.”

  72. AnonAnon says:
    @PennTothal

    The most alarmist models have been falsified and should be discarded.

    Amen. Now lift the shut downs and let’s get the country back to work before we push ourselves into a depression.

  73. @obwandiyag

    The kids (say, under 35) didn’t cause globalism.

    The kids didn’t offshore production of vital industries in the name of God the Profit.

    The kids didn’t pass on a huge national debt to their future countrymen.

    The kids didn’t grant Most Favored Nation status to China, a $#@ authoritarian communist rival.

    The kids didn’t agree to involve the United States in expensive, worthless Middle Eastern wars.

    The kids didn’t agree to amnesty of illegal immigrants because Americans of the 1980s and 1990s were so special they deserved cheap labor, laws be damned.

    The kids didn’t agree to programs like H-1B because by God, American owners should get the technical skills they want at the price they want, nation be damned.

    The kids didn’t agree to continually increasing college tuition rates, far above inflation, while simultaneously mandating college degrees as entrance requirements for even the most trivial of jobs.

    Finally, the kids didn’t agree to be born to parents so weak and greedy they would rather sacrifice their children’s future than fight tough political and culture wars that might have saved American schools from becoming indoctrination mills.

    Americans weren’t conquered, they were bribed — far more disgusting.

    I’m do think that there is ideological overlap between all generations, of course. Generation certainly does not define someone at the individual level.

    But this attempted shaming of the young is quite pathetic, as are you.

  74. anon[244] • Disclaimer says:
    @ic1000

    They (Korea and China) quarantine everyone with the disease in a official dorm or quasi hospital, regardless of severity.

    South Korea divided confirmed patients into four categories. Only the sickest and elderly went to hospitals. The young and asymptomatic went to dormitories, which were lent by Samsung Life Insurance Co., LG Display Co. and others, equipped with little more than beds, Wi-Fi and the occasional television.

    If the younger infected, presumably even asymptomatic, won’t consider this, then we won’t have a Korean outcome. No one in the US will agree to this.

    Meanwhile, it is the chaos in hospitals that seem to be the trigger for catastrophic response, so I would address this first. https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-south-korea-solved-its-acute-hospital-bed-shortage-11584874801?mod=hp_listb_pos1

  75. anonymous[233] • Disclaimer says:
    @PennTothal

    Can you provide links?

    USA is tracking close now to this 11-day lag prediction in terms of CASES (meaningless) but NOT in terms of what really matters: seriously-ill on ventilators, bilateral interstitial pneumonia cases.

  76. Charon says:
    @HA

    with all the naysaying and pleas for boomer extinction I see on this site

    You should see what it’s like out there in Normie Land. It’s like the nation has 100 million Tiny Ducks.

    And the site moderators who will ban you for even hinting that there’s a POC somewhere who isn’t the very definition of perfection somehow turn a blind eye to all the calls for Boomer Removal.

    Isn’t it the previous generation being hit hardest anyway? What are they called, Silents? I don’t even know why they’re called that. Apparently we’re supposed to be silent about them.

  77. Spud Boy says:

    If 60% of a population becomes infected with a death rate of 1.4%, we should expect about 8.5 million Chinese to bite the dust over the next few months. Seems unlikely.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  78. Anon[210] • Disclaimer says:
    @Mr McKenna

    I’m 72 and to me most people are a pain in the ass. I enjoy my own company, playing piano and banjo, recording music, writing songs, reading and gardening. Now getting our groceries delivered. Fine with me if I never have to drive anywhere again.

  79. Sean says:
    @Dumbo

    The infected doctor gave Merkel a flu jab. In 2009 there was scandal about the flu jab available to the public being different to the ones officials and essential workers got. Merkel announced she would get the ordinary one, and no doubt she through some money at the problem. Her country is preoccupied with such things to an extent found in nowhere else.

    Visitors might believe that Germans are health obsessed or even hypochondriacs. Ask a German friend how they are and you might well get more than you bargained for: “In fact I have a stomach problem and spent most of the night on the toilet.”

    German newspapers love health scares. If it’s not swine flu or bird flu that gets you, then stress and burn out will. But German health insurance covers just about everything

    The strange concept of“wellness”has been completely taken to heart. … As a result, German physicians have a very high status in society. One well-known joke plays on this: Question: What is the difference between a German doctor and God? Answer: God doesn’t think he is a German doctor. (German Secrets: Achtung to Zeitgeist -Paul Smith, ‎Ken Taylor – 2013)

    Hardly any of their tanks work. This is a society uniquely geared for fighting disease.

    • Replies: @Jmaie
  80. ia says:
    @Garlic

    If 1.4% of those with symptoms are dying, the death rate of all infected must be considerably lower, as the asymptomatic are not included in the calculation.

    Exactly. Even the NYT says this in a curiously elliptical way – “About 85 percent of infected travelers went undetected, researchers believe. But they were still contagious.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/22/world/coronavirus-spread.html

    So, only 15% of people with corona are confirmed?

    • Replies: @Garlic
  81. @AnotherDad

    I’ve found the $25 upcharge for an exit row seat to be an excellent investment over the past few years.

  82. Lugash says:
    @Anonymous

    Thanks on the Pittsburgh comment. Not nearly as much local travel out of the regional depressed city, the capital city elites don’t travel to the regional city as much as they do foreign cities. Makes some sense. Also the ChiComs had shut down the media by the time it got to the other cities and knew better how to contain the outbreaks.

  83. @HA

    If people don’t want the economy to be shut down like this again, then people need to put some measures in place in the way those other countries did. That’s not me being an alarmist, that’s just me being cautious.

    Agree wholeheartedly. This *should* be the end of the globalists’ nonsense.

    We should have
    — borders
    — an immigration moratorium
    — detection/quarantine facilities ready at entry-points; and procedures to use them
    — repatriation of industry especially including medical supply/equipment
    — a stock pile of medical equipment and supplies
    — procedures/facilities for rapid ramp of hospital/quarantine facilities (military bases, college dorms, etc. etc.)
    — detailed procedures for rapid epidemic response for various kinds of pathogens
    — subsidized–if necessary–capability to rapidly produce critical medical supplies/equipment
    — continual–subsidized and competitive–vaccine development; pay labs to go after vaccines for every bug that pops so we have a large ecosystem of labs that are continually practicing and up to speed on skills for “the big one”; (and maybe we make a lot of progress on regular old colds and flu in the bargain)
    — public health initiatives on proper procedures and what necessary supplies are “always at hand” at home
    — suggestions for general societal changes to be more epidemic resistant; (ex. building codes for houses to be better able to isolate yet care for sick family members; more separate bathrooms? air-handling/filtration? etc.)

    Bunch more i could think of if my head was clear.

    Oh,
    — a hard ban on any public health official mentioning “racism”, “xenophobia” or “guns”. Stick to your lane! Or you’re fired.

    • Agree: HA, Coemgen
  84. Garlic says:
    @ia

    Putting the pieces together:

    1.4% death rate of those with symptoms multiplied by 15% of total infected showing symptoms suggests a total death rate of 0.2% of those infected.

    • Replies: @ia
  85. @Sean

    Then you should know you’ve already lost.

    • Replies: @Sean
  86. @Bardon Kaldian

    Utterly laughable. Southern Europe has a lower fertility rate than Northern Europeans (yes, excluding non-Euro residents),

    no crimes of passion and indeed fewer violent crimes than Northern Europe,

    no Teutonic or Scandinavian women chasing local boys in any measureable quantity,

    the ugliest women (and males) alive,

    no macho posturing,

    and a shit-ton of incel twerps under 30 living in mom’s basement.

  87. @AnotherDad

    A older Chinese couple sat down next to me–the gentleman with a slight cough. Fortunately i had my mask.

    I’ve told all my friends–don’t pick row 8.

    They call it lung shui.

  88. @XYZ (no Mr.)

    But this attempted shaming of the young is quite pathetic, as are you.

    As is that of the old. Enough with the asstrology, everybody.

    People hate the parents who disciplined them (or didn’t) and love the grandparents who spoiled them. Then they make this the core of their analysis.

  89. ia says:
    @Garlic

    If he’s right.

    ‘Estimates of the number of infected people who left Wuhan are from Jeffrey Shaman, professor of environmental health sciences at Columbia; and Li et al., “Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus.”’

  90. @Pincher Martin

    You cite one article which cites one source, and uses the word “may” quite prominently. And then you simply rely on personal insults. Well, we have a word for that in Pennsylvania….

    Idiot.

    Jagoff!

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
  91. @Spud Boy

    The cruise ships suggest that the population infection rate is between 8 and 17%.

  92. SafeNow says:

    “Bunch more i could think of if my head was clear.”

    That’s an excellent list, AnotherDad, of epidemic-fighting things to do. One more:

    Incentivize China to stop the culinary eccentricities, to eliminate wet markets, and to deploy a zillion miles of fencing to separate the pigs ducks and people. The incentives could take the form of reduced tariffs and a more lenient approach to intellectual property theft. Sad to say, China has not done these things on their own, and I predict they will not do so even after this pandemic, unless it is incentivized.

  93. @Old and Grumpy

    Seems to be directly matching up with areas the Dem votes come from.

  94. Mattmack says:

    As far as segregating old people and letting others go about their business, I’m for it. I’m 71 and like most retired people, I live on investments. The response to Covid 19 has crashed the market and if this shut down lasts much longer it will reduce the GDP to historic levels. I hate to sound callous, but this is all being done to flatline a virus that seems to be only serious for a small group of already unhealthy people. The death rate keeps going down in the US (and apparently China) as testing finds more cases. We seniors can be a little more careful to practice good virus avoidance, if it will keep us from going broke.

  95. Rich says:
    @XYZ (no Mr.)

    You’re off your bird. Boomers fought in Vietnam, saw the manufacturing base sold off, dealt with crazy feminists and affirmative action advocates and had to deal with activist judges who used the full power of the state to force unpopular edicts on the people. No majority of Americans, let alone those born a between 1945 and 1964, voted for open borders or selling off their jobs to cheap labor countries. They voted for guys who vowed to restrict immigration and force companies to stay in the states. Those leaders betrayed them, and used their immense police control to prevent any resistance to the program. Well fed people rarely revolt and America was so big, a person could still find a corner to keep his family secure.

    As for the young, I’m sure you’re familiar with the old Socrates quotation, “The children now love luxury, have bad manners, contempt for authority, they show disrespect for their elders and love chatter in place of exercise.” And the Athenian millennials didn’t have cell phones and twittter and tinder and snapchat and instagram…

    • Replies: @XYZ (no Mr.)
  96. Jmaie says:
    @Sean

    Ask a German friend how they are and you might well get more than you bargained for: “In fact I have a stomach problem and spent most of the night on the toilet.”

    That is because the standard German greeting translates to “good day”. Asking someone how they are is treated it as a serious question…

    • Replies: @Sean
  97. @UK

    Some Israeli politician speaking in English (why?) gives a simple explanation of what needs to be done. Seems pretty common sense straightforward.

    That’s Naftali Bennett. His parents are Americans who made Aliya in the 60’s. He himself lived in the USA for years after military service, b4 returning to Israel.He had to renounce his American citizenship when he was elected to Knesset

  98. @Rich

    1) Vietnam was nominally fought to protect a sovereign non-communist state from invasion from a communist state. And people protested that. And many of those same people that protested or sought mechanisms to avoid combat — all part of the Baby Boomer Generation — when in power themselves launched useless, expensive wars in the Middle East that had much less legitimate end goals, even nominally. Vietnam isn’t a damn excuse for anything.

    2) Adam Smith much better describes the situation than the seemingly obligatory quote from Socrates always popping up in generational debate. For great countries, Smith is right: ‘there is a great deal of ruin in a nation’. All Baby Boomers who could vote had the right to vote by the early 1980s. Changing course in the late 1980s, or late 1990s, or even 2009, would have made an enormous difference for America in 2020. Manufacturing didn’t decay in one day, or one even one decade. Feminism and multiculturalism didn’t succeed in one day either. And all these destructive forces were absolutely far weaker 30 or 40 years ago than they are today. So Baby Boomer youth certainly had a great advantage compared to the youth of today. And yet you have the gall to complain about your feminism and affirmative action hardships.

    3) Well fed people do revolt. The average American colonist was certainly better off than the average British subject at the time. But enough took their rights seriously and a new country was won.

    You pretty much gave the game away explaining the attitude — I assume common — that America was so big, a man could find a quiet corner to raise his family in. Since that situation could not possibly last forever for a society, and even an idiot could realize that, that’s another way of saying: not my problem. So exactly why can’t young people of today have the same attitude concerning Wuhan virus?

    I support most of the Wuhan virus mitigation measures. I also support any measure to remove — not just alleviate — any financial damages done to people who cannot work…and many of these are not threatened by the virus. We’ll see how that goes. I have a feeling many Baby Boomers will not want to pay.

    • Replies: @sayless
    , @Rich
  99. Sean says:
    @Jmaie

    Perhaps they are not that different in concern for their health as individuals. But what about the nuclear phase out? I think minute details of the public flu shots is an odd thing to be a political issue, and it happened during the Bird Flu scare, showing that the country is attuned to a particular type of threat. Gigerenzer :-

    WHY are we scared of what most likely will not kill us? Psychology provides us with an answer. It is called fear of dread risks. This fear is elicited by a situation in which many people die within a short time. Note that the fear is not about dying, but about suddenly dying together with many others at one point of time. When as many—or more—people die distributed over the year, whether from gun violence, motorcycle accidents, or in hospital beds, it is hard to conjure up anxiety.

    Richard Lynn had a theory that Germans, Swiss and Austrians were higher in anxiety than other Europeans. Relatively speaking, very few elderly Germans have caught COVID-19.

    • Replies: @Dumbo
  100. @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    You cite one article which cites one source, and uses the word “may” quite prominently. And then you simply rely on personal insults. Well, we have a word for that in Pennsylvania….

    I used one source because you are not worth two and because it was an unimpeachable source. But plainly I was casting a pearl before a swine.

  101. @AnotherDad

    To avoid yon Chinkee, you ought to try to pick row 4 (四) – it’s homophonous with 死 (death).

    Row 8 (八) is a terrible pick: 8 is a very lucky number for Chinks… it sounds a bit like like the word for “prospering”.

    It’s weird – they can make a reasonably solid case for 5000 years of civilisation (not all of it explicitly ‘Chinese’), and yet here we are in the 21st century and their culture still retains an absolute shitload of primitive retarded stupid fucktardery… feng shui, astrology/horoscopy/nujmerology, eating dogs, and drinking wine that’s had a tiger’s balls or snake blood or bear bile in it.

    And yet they also gave the world Confucianism. Bizarre.

  102. @danand

    Tests conducted by country

    CDC – US test data by state

    The US still appears to be testing fuck-all people (~6k a day nation-wide over the last 5 full weekdays? amateurs): obviously the CDC’s early massive, incompetent, fuckup with reagent quality is nowhere near fixed.

    Typical Yanks – point the finger at Iran and China and accuse them of shitty data quality, all the while keeping schtum that their own house is in absolute fucking disarray.

    A country of 320 million people has tested 71,000 people since January18th; Australia has tested 121,000 since mid-February (and found 98.7% of people test negative).

    • Replies: @anon
  103. anon[383] • Disclaimer says:
    @Kratoklastes

    obviously the CDC’s early massive, incompetent, fuckup with reagent quality is nowhere near fixed.

    CDC allegedly assured Trump they could get the testing job done, even as they had nothing to back that up with. Pretty lies, zero actions. Well, that was more than good enough for a raise and promotion when the Lightbringer was President and probably long before that.

    Actually having to produce something on a timeline? Not possible.

    DIEversity triumphs again.

    Fortunately LabCorp and other companies also have a test and are getting it done.

    When all the crap is cleaned off the walls, a fair number of swamp creatures need to go away.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
  104. @XYZ (no Mr.)

    Most of that shit lies at the Greatest Generation’s door.

    What you didn’t do is refute my statement about China. Because I am right. And the young in the US do not respect their elders. If you read closely, you would understand it is not their fault. I said “It is part of the scam.” I mean, you sound exactly like one of “The Young” in 1968. Hating our parents keeps us from making common cause with them. In other words, more identity politics.

    But this analysis requires thinking. All you do is write lists. Lists are endless.

    How about this. Just to end on an insulting note. Here’s a list. Young people with their shorts in the wintertime and tattoos and staring at their phones every second of the day and saying awesome all the time make the world an ugly place. Aesthetics matters too. All a cow needs is grass and water. But man does not live on bread alone.

    There are a million other lists. Argument by list is not argument.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @XYZ (no Mr.)
  105. @CAL2

    Most old people who work do not do it for extra cash. You are ignorant of the extent of poverty in this country.

  106. Anonymous[252] • Disclaimer says:
    @obwandiyag

    Intergenerational respect goes both ways. People who cause chaos in their children’s lives via divorce, lazy parenting and general selfishness, will get no respect from their children, nor will they deserve any.

  107. @obwandiyag

    You called American children vile sociopaths. Or was it vile psychopaths? No matter.

    I’ve noticed some commenters here — like you — try to pin all of our problems onto the Greatest Generation, and say the Hart-Celler Act, or the Civil Rights Act, doomed America forever. They did not. The Greatest Generation was certainly not supreme after the 1980s, and the US elite class — supported by voters — made mistake after mistake that has taken us very far from the easily repairable America of the early 1990s. Trying to lay events like the invasion of Iraq, or the creation of huge trade deficits with China, onto the Greatest Generation is a farce.

    Note, your list isn’t a list — it seems more akin to the disorganized thought patterns common in schizophrenics. That may explain why you could not comprehend the facts presented in my statements — and the fact that I certainly don’t think American kids don’t have serious issues — one major one being that they are highly indoctrinated. They are not at fault for their own indoctrination, however — that responsibility lies with the parents, and solely with the parents. So you seem to lack self-awareness when speaking about the Chinese caring for their parents (or elders): that is a direct reflection of the parents, not the children, and is the fruition of the work of the parents and their culture.

    • Replies: @obwandiyag
  108. Sean says:
    @Pincher Martin

    It was intended as a pun. Ronnie Barker used 9 to mean nein. Rather than “nein” I meant 9. Unfortunately there was another added after I posted, making ten deaths in that 24 hour period. I am so embarrassed!

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
  109. BB753 says:
    @Dumbo

    “One of those doctors who met with Merkel had the coronavirus. Now she is in quarantine and might be infected too.”

    Good news at last!

  110. Dumbo says:
    @Sean

    So what we associate with Jewish neuroticism / anxiety, was actually German-Jewish neuroticism / anxiety?

    very few elderly Germans have caught COVID-19.

    Do you have any source for that? There’s north of 26,000 cases by now. But I found no statistics about age.

  111. @Sean

    Hahaha!

    It’s not going to matter, but I should’ve specified a source. The Koch Institute seems to report deaths conservatively, but the Berlin Morgenpost reports them either more quickly or differently.

    In either case, by March 29th, Germany will be having far more than ten deaths a day, no matter which source is used. Probably around thirty to fifty a day. Maybe more.

    • Replies: @Sean
  112. Coemgen says:
    @XYZ (no Mr.)

    Sounds like “the kids” are natural Trump voters.

  113. @XYZ (no Mr.)

    You are a simple-minded idiot like all young people.

    Blaming your stupid list on a “generation” is just stupid.

    What “generation” do people born in 1944 belong to? 1966?

    Alright, I lay your list at the Silent Generation’s door.

    You are so stupid, I am just fucking with you.

    There is no such thing as a generation. People are born every year. I bet you didn’t know that. Because you are young and stupid.

    Most people in any generation at all, including the so-called generation born more or less in the 50s (I won’t give it the name you Bonehead Generations give it.) have not power, have no money, do not vote, generally mean well, did not cause any of the things you elicit.

    Rich people caused them. What “generation” are rich people? Or don’t you believe in attacking rich people? Then you’re worthless and go back under you’re rock.

    As to the Greatest Generation, which is stupid nomenclature, too, they voted in droves and they voted for Nixon and Reagan, and Bush would have won if Ross Perot hadn’t run, whom they voted for in droves.

    Not that it matters. The Democrats would have been just as bad.

    Blaming wars and economic problems on a whole age cohort of people is about as stupid and disingenuous and ridiculous as blaming them on the weather.

    The most important point, which you didn’t address: You sound exactly like the young of 1968. What you say is exactly what the young said in 1968.

    You don’t know this, of course, because you are young and therefore stupid.

    Now, if you’re actually trotting out that same old “we didn’t make this world” hooha, and you don’t know that it’s the same hooha the people you’re criticizing used to trot out (some of them, not all of them), and that their parents used to trot out when they were young, you have proved that you are ignorant.

    And there’s the rub. Too soon oldt. Too late schmardt.

    You apparently think young people are smarter than old people. Which is impossible. You have seen less, so you know less. This is wisdom that you probably don’t subscribe to now.

    But I promise you. You will.

  114. Sean says:
    @Pincher Martin

    You seem to have the knack of buying at the top of the market. Unlike ponderous American bureaucracy, the German can do attitude has provided the necessary for aggressive testing, tracing and isolation of the infected. In the Bavarian outbreak the Germans eradicated the virus completely.

    Germany has the oldest population in Europe, yet the median age of German coronavirus-12 patients is 46 years, as compared to 63 in Italy and 64 in the UK. The elderly Germans were relatively un-infected because they were extremely cautious when they heard about the outbreak. Germans have higher anxiety (Lynn,1971), hence they particularly dread the risk of suddenly dying together with many others at one point of time. Humans evolved in small bands of around 60 people, it is instructive to consider the consequences of losing many members from such a group at one time, it might well cease to exist (Gigerenzer 2014).

    A related line of reasoning is if a member of one of the aforementioned bands has a communicable disease, then having immune activation make him feel depressed and keep away from the rest of the group has an obvious benefit from the Darwinian standpoint (Bullmore 2014). We get more inflamed as we get older and fatter. Hence all those foaming beers, oozing strudels, and steaming wursts make for inflammation, which is immune activation, and such inflammation makes Germans, especially older ones, more depressed and socially reclusive. The disadvantage of the Mediterranean Diet is it makes you healthy, happy and outgoing. Then infected.

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
  115. sayless says:
    @Brabantian

    Whatever it is, it isn’t just a flu. Even in young people it can scar the lungs, reducing function by 20% or 30%. It can damage the testicles, the heart, and the brain. I wish some spokesman would say this loudly enough that kids can hear.

  116. sayless says:
    @XYZ (no Mr.)

    Many of us kept voting for not-x but x crept up again, over and over, when our hopeful won. It can take awhile to understand that policy ultimately is in the hands of grifters and psychopaths.

  117. @Sean

    You seem to have the knack of buying at the top of the market. Unlike ponderous American bureaucracy, the German can do attitude has provided the necessary for aggressive testing, tracing and isolation of the infected. In the Bavarian outbreak the Germans eradicated the virus completely.

    That’s quite funny. I do like gallows humor.

    We made our bet on March 19th, when you excitedly reported the news of Germany having only 12,327 cases and 28 deaths.

    Germany’s case load is now 0ver 29,000 and the number of German dead is 123, with more than 28 deaths over each of the last two days.

    So in just four days, the number of infected Germans has grown nearly 250%, and the number of German deaths has more than quadrupled.

    Four days.

    Taking into account the size of Germany’s population, the number of cases is much, much higher than in the U.S. and the number of dead is comparable. There’s also some question as to how Germany is counting their coronavirus dead (not that it will matter for our bet).

    Your feel-good news story that maybe – just maybe – Germans have gotten a handle on the growth of the disease’s spread won’t affect the growing number of dead over the next month, even if it is true.

    So it appears you are not involved in any market if you believe this has topped off.

    Do you agree the loser of our bet will pay Steve Sailer $250 on April 8th should the number of German dead be equal to or more than 10-per-day from March 29th to April 7th?

  118. Sean says:

    Do you agree the loser of our bet will pay Steve Sailer $250 on April 8th should the number of German dead be equal to or more than 10-per-day from March 29th to April 7th?b

    Saying ‘I bet you’ then once that is accepted making it a money thing is a bit like taking out an insurance policy on someone else, with yourself as beneficiary (if that was allowed). So no, but the terms are quite tempting. The 14 cases in Bavaria were isolated, then there were no new cases between 11 February and 27 February, Bearing in mind it takes a little less than a month from coronavirus-12 infection to death for those that die of it, and the first death in Germany was on 8 March,. I would expect the deaths to decline precipitously starting 5 April.

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
  119. Rich says:
    @XYZ (no Mr.)

    I don’t care if the young people of today eat and drink and make merry all they want, if that’s what you took away from my post, it wasn’t what I intended. My main point is that the massive baby boom that took place after WW2 was so vast that it included many good, hard-working people who’s birthright was stolen by twisted “leaders”.

    I’m not sure I understand your point about the Vietnam War. The overwhelming number of combat vets were “boomers” and the overwhelming number of the American people supported the troops. The protesters were a mishmash of cowards, kids wanting to party and lunatics. Over 9 million American men served in uniform during the Vietnam War, boomers all. I bet there were never anywhere near 9 million protesters. Nixon won in a landslide in 1972 and it took a coup to remove him.

  120. Mr. Anon says:
    @HA

    Maybe. Maybe not.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/27/asia/japan-diamond-princess-quarantine-crew-intl-hnk/index.html

    “We suspected some of the cruise staff may have already been infected, but … they had to operate the cruise ship itself, they had to see the passengers, they had to deliver the meals,” Ohmagari said. “So that may have caused some close contact with the cruise ship workers and also the passengers.”
    In a press conference on February 24, Yosuke Kita, a senior coordinator at the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare said the crew members could not be isolated completely. “Unfortunately to maintain daily life of the more than 3,700 passenger cruise, we needed help, we needed support from cruise members to maintain the daily life,” he said.

    ………………………………………………….

    Out of the 1045 crew members who were on board the Diamond Princess when it went into quarantine, at least 150 have already been infected according to the cruise line — about 14% of the cruise ship’s workforce.

    On the surface, the Diamond Princess seems like it would be the ideal case to illuminate the epidemiology of the disease. But with confounding factors going both ways (both promoting and inhibiting the spread of the virus) it’s hard to determine anything conclusively.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  121. Mr. Anon says:
    @anon

    When all the crap is cleaned off the walls, a fair number of swamp creatures need to go away.

    That is always the case and, always, it never happens.

  122. Mr. Anon says:
    @Lot

    Yeah, we get it. You hate the Pauls, father and son, because they are insufficiently slavish to Israel.

    Actually, there was nothing in Paul’s column that isn’t true. He said the virus is a real thing and that it is dangerous. And he said that governments might be using the response to it to grant themselves draconian police-state-like powers.

  123. @Mr. Anon

    What was the nationality breakdown among the passengers on the Diamond Princess? Mostly Japanese?

  124. @Sean

    I just saw this.

    So you don’t want to put any skin in the game. That means that any prediction you make here is worthless. You make a lot of bold proclamations, but you don’t want to take any responsibility for them.

    Any man can quickly agree to a wager if he knows his wager will cost him nothing.

  125. I find it interesting that there is NO mention of the race ethnicity of the people sick in NYC. Were I a cynical man, I would bet that a large number of them are Chinese, and that they contracted it at NYC’s Chinatown parade held in early February which was well after the risks were known. NYC’s health director cheered the parade on, with the usual “we aren’t racists” hogwash.

Current Commenter
says:

Leave a Reply - Comments are moderated by iSteve, at whim.


 Remember My InformationWhy?
 Email Replies to my Comment
Submitted comments become the property of The Unz Review and may be republished elsewhere at the sole discretion of the latter
Subscribe to This Comment Thread via RSS Subscribe to All Steve Sailer Comments via RSS