This is a few days old. From the New York Times:
Coronavirus Death Rate in Wuhan Is Lower than Previously Thought, Study Finds
Researchers calculated a 1.4 percent likelihood of dying in the city where the pandemic began. Earlier estimates ranged from 2 percent to 3.4 percent.
By Pam Belluck
March 19, 2020
A new study reports that people who became sick from the coronavirus in the Chinese city where the outbreak began likely had a lower death rate than previously thought.
Lots of methodological questions, of course. Do we know the Chinese didn’t undercount deaths? They, eventually, reacted like it was a massive catastrophe.
There are two case fatality rates of interest: with and without intensive care. When the hospitals overload, things can get very bad.
The study, published Thursday in the journal Nature Medicine, calculated that people with coronavirus symptoms in Wuhan, China, had a 1.4 percent likelihood of dying. Some previous estimates have ranged from 2 percent to 3.4 percent. …
The new study calculated estimates based on cases in Wuhan as of Feb. 29, when there had been 48,557 confirmed patients and 2,169 deaths. The risk of death increased with age, “unlike any previously reported pandemic or seasonal influenza,” the researchers wrote. …
The risk of developing symptomatic infection itself also increased with age, about 4 percent per year for people aged 30 to 60, the study said. The authors estimated that people 60 and older were twice as likely to develop symptoms as people aged 30 to 59 and that people under 30 have about one-sixth the chance of developing symptoms from the infection. That suggests, as has other research, that many young people may be unknowingly infected and able to spread the virus to others. …
Do we see the same extreme age pattern in the U.S.? How contagious are the asymptomatic young?
The findings “indicate that Covid-19 transmission is difficult to control,” they wrote, adding that “we might expect at least half of the population to be infected, even with aggressive use of community mitigation measures.”
At Marginal Revolution, Tyler Cowen writes:
1. Segregating old people, and letting others go about their regular business. Given how many older people now work (and vote), and how many employees in nursing homes are young, I’ve yet to see a good version of this plan, but if you favor it please do try to write one up. One of you suggested taking everyone over the age of 65 and encasing them in bubble wrap, or something.