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For a couple of months, I’ve been calling for more antibody tests of representative samples to see how close we are to Herd Immunity. From the Boston Globe:

Boston has released the results of its coronavirus and antibody testing. Here’s what to know.

“This is a sample of residents in four zip codes,” Mayor Marty Walsh said of the coronavirus study results. “It does not give us a defined, citywide picture.”

By Christopher Gavin, Staff
May 15, 2020 | 3:10 PM

Boston officials Friday released the results of the coronavirus and antibody testing performed on 750 asymptomatic residents in some of the city’s neighborhoods hardest hit by the ongoing pandemic.

The study, designed to help evaluate community exposure to the virus through representative sampling, found that of those tested in East Boston, Roslindale, and parts of Dorchester,

These are kind of dumpy and diverse neighborhoods.

9.9 percent tested positive for antibodies and 2.6 percent tested positive for the coronavirus, officials said.

Assuming no overlap, I come up with 9.9% previously infected plus 2.6% currently infected = 12.5% ever infected or 1 out of 8. But, the survey excluded people in the hospital or who had previously tested positive or who had died.

… Walsh, elaborating on the study’s results at a press conference Friday afternoon, said the antibody rate is “lower than what we would have expected from earlier models of the virus’s spread.” …

“I want to be clear that this is a sample of residents in four zip codes. It does not give us a defined, citywide picture,” Walsh said. “But the results do suggest some lessons about how we move forward.”

Over 5,000 residents in Roslindale, East Boston, and within the boundaries of the Dorchester zip codes 02121 and 02125 were invited to voluntarily participate in the study earlier this month. Roughly 1,000 people expressed interest, and 786 were determined to be eligible, according to officials.

Of those individuals, 750 people enrolled and received testing. Anyone with COVID-19 symptoms or who had previously tested positive were disqualified from participating.

Testing occurred over a two-week period at three drive-through sites. Coronavirus testing was conducted through nose swabs, while antibody testing was carried out through blood drawn from finger pricks.

People of color represented over 55 percent of the overall outreach, although the majority, or 62 percent, of those tested were white, 18.7 percent were Black/African American, 12 percent were Latinx/Hispanic, 2.3 percent were Asian/Pacific Islander, and 0.13 percent were American Indian/Alaska Native, data shows.

In the marketing research business, everybody knows that white women are the most cooperative group for participating.

“We ended up with a demographic cross section that was not a perfect match for our population, but it did draw significantly from each of our different neighborhoods and communities,” Walsh said.

Statistics released by the city have shown the coronavirus is impacting Black residents at a higher rate than white residents, although officials said the test results showed “there were no significant differences in COVID-19 or antibody rates by race or ethnicity in this sample.”

Antibody rates yielded from the study also showed no difference among the occupations of participants, from frontline, essential workers to the swaths of the workforce currently doing business from home, experts said.

As of May 7, 3,865 residents in Dorchester’s 02121 and 02125 zip codes had been tested since the onset of the pandemic, with 36.2 percent of them testing positive for the coronavirus.

Dorchester has a population of 88,000, so 1.6% of the population weren’t eligible because they were already positive.

Of 3,053 residents tested in East Boston, 38.7 percent had tested positive, and among 1,937 individuals tested in Roslindale, 29.9 percent had tested positive, city data shows.

Walsh said Friday varying numbers between neighborhoods are an “indication of how localized the spread can be and how targeted our response needs to be and needs to continue to be.”

Boston had logged 11,395 coronavirus cases as of Thursday and had a total of 4,089 recoveries so far, with a continuing decline in the number of active cases, according to the mayor. So far, 551 city residents have died due to COVID-19 complications.

The city of Boston’s population is 695,000. So if, say, 1/8th have been infected, that would be around a 0.63% Infection Fatality Rate.

… Dr. Anthony Iafrate, director of the Center for Integrated Diagnostics at MGH, said the study results capture just a snapshot of the virus spread at one moment of time, and pointed out that the antibody rate is by no means near the 70 percent threshold estimated by medical experts that’s needed for “herd immunity.”

“We’re not there,” he said. “We’re not at the 70 percent, ‘We’ve all had it, we’re safe and past this.’ We’re also not at 1 or 2 percent, which you might expect in a more rural community … where the risk of transmission might be low. So we’re somewhere in between an environment where the transmission is low and the risk is low and where we have herd immunity — and that’s a fairly anxious place to be.”

Baseline demographics
Median age: 42.4 years old
Sexes: 61.6 percent are female, 38.3 percent male
Neighborhoods: 36.8 percent are from Roslindale, 25.1 percent are from East Boston, 23.2 percent are from 02125 in Dorchester and 14.9 percent are from 02121 in Dorchester
Race: 62% are white, 18.7 percent are Black/African-American, 12 percent are Latinx/Hispanic, 2.3 percent are Asian/Pacific Islander and .13 percent are American Indian/Alaska Native. According to officials, 1.6 percent preferred not to say and 1.6 percent are unknown.
Neighborhood demographics
East Boston: 1.1 percent tested positive for COVID-19, 13.3 percent tested positive for antibodies
Roslindale: 2.2 percent tested positive for COVID-19, 7.6 percent tested positive for antibodies
02121 in Dorchester: 2.7 percent tested positive for COVID-19, 6.3 percent tested positive for antibodies
02125 in Dorchester: 4.6 percent tested positive for COVID-19, 12.1 percent tested positive for antibodies

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  1. LondonBob says:

    Unlikely antibody tests are the be all and end all, many won’t have needed antibodies. Prior immunity and children being effectively immune would explain why this virus burns itself out so quickly, and why there seems to be a ceiling as to how many people get infected.

    • Replies: @Travis
    , @leterip
  2. moshe says:


    NYC is my favorite place to speak with strangers but if everyone is masked and petrified of catching Chinese AIDS from me I’d have less opportunity to do it.

    If you are in NYC, what are things like as far as mask wearing and social distancing is concerned?

    Also, if you have a small furnished apartment to rent in Manhattan from June through September for $700-$900/month I’m game.

    • Replies: @UK
    , @Inverness
    , @Technite78
  3. Another antibody test which demonstrates the people staying home , not working , are more likely to have antibodies.

    Spain had similar results. The people least likely to have antibodies are younger workers while the elderly staying at home have more antibodies. This is probably because younger people fight off this virus without creating antibodies.

    It takes 2 weeks to develop antibodies , so these antibody tests are telling us how many were infected 2 weeks before being tested.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  4. Should I do a comment section daily update like Ann Coulter does for Trump’s Wall?


    I’ll be sure to update for your next study post!

  5. Anonymous[176] • Disclaimer says:

    I can’t decide if I will be so relieved when the threat of Coronavirus is gone that I join a bunch of clubs and try being more social, or if I am never going to feel safe from the next big one lurking around the bend.

  6. Unit472 says:

    Potter County, Texas ( Amarillo ) pop. 121,000 had 612 new cases yesterday. This accounted for almost 1/3 of the state’s 2,000 new cases. That 2000 was , in itself close to a doubling of the state’s average daily new cases. These localized spikes are worrisome and really threaten attempts to reopen the economy.

    • Disagree: RadicalCenter
  7. @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    So the latest studies are doing both lagging antibody tests and current infection PCR tests. You can probably just add the 9.9% and the 2.6% to get 12.5%. But 1.6% of Dorchester had tested positive before so they weren’t eligible.

  8. @LondonBob

    The spectator about partial CO-19 immunity

    German research suggesting that 34 percent of the population have T cells that recognize Sars-CoV-2, without previously having encountered the new virus. The virologists behind that work were keen to stress that this did not mean a third of us are immune from Covid-19 but it could explain why some people have only very mild symptoms or are asymptomatic.  

    See here: 

    Professor Christian Drosten, a virologist in Berlin, is here quoted saying that his team is working on a model-CO-19-IFR-calculation which would factor in these new findings. 

    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
    , @res
  9. danand says:

    Data seems to indicate two things, living near the airport (East Boston) tended to expose one earlier to the virus (current highest % antibodies), and the other, Boston’s just way too segregated; Harvard best get on that:



    An aside, most of the Covid-19 antibody serum tests are based off the common home pregnancy test architecture, urine not required. They are widely available from several manufacturers at ~$15 a pop; many minus FDA approval:

  10. UK says:

    Also, if you have a small furnished apartment to rent in Manhattan from June through September for $700-$900/month I’m game

    I don’t know much about Manhattan rental as I’m not American but I feel you’d probably only be able to get a a small unfurnished literal cardboard box for that price, and certainly not a designated livable space.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
  11. Inverness says:

    Cuomo has decided that it wasn’t his nasty habit of sending covid patients to nursing homes that was the problem after all.

    He’s now saying that a clear majority of cases are people who were completely isolated in their homes.

    So I guess the new working theory is that they caught it from Chinese drywall. Except: Cuomo believes the virus originated in Europe.

  12. @Dieter Kief

    What do you think of the situation in Germany right now?

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
  13. Ed says:

    Every time I see “Latinx” my blood boils. It is not a word in common usage, white liberal academics and journalists just decided upon themselves to use it.

  14. Travis says:

    Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold.

    Individuals that are more susceptible tend to be infected earlier, depleting the susceptible subpopulation of those who are at higher risk of infection. This selective depletion of susceptibles intensifies the deceleration in incidence. Eventually, susceptible numbers become low enough to prevent epidemic growth or, in other words, the herd immunity threshold (HIT) is reached.

    While in NYC over 20% of the population has antibodies , those who should be at higher risk , such as hospital workers and police, have much lower rates of infection. One explanation is that a significant percentage of the population has a strong enough innate immune system to defeat this virus without getting sick and without creating antibodies. There is no other explanation for why those most exposed to the virus have lower rates of infection. Maybe having been infected with a different coronavirus in the previous year gives you protection from this novel coronavirus, making your immune system stronger to fight off this new coronavirus.

    One examples is the Diamond Princess Cruise ship. The virus was detected everywhere on the ship, and no isolation of patients was done for weeks. yet only 20% of the passengers contracted coronavirus. almost half of those infected had no symptoms. Often one spousse was infected, while the other spouse remained virus free, despite living in the same tiny room for weeks. We should expect a similar pattern among the general population, the majority of people exposed to this virus will not get sick. So-called herd immunity will not require 70% to be infected, since half the population is already immune to developing COVID19.

    • Replies: @utu
  15. bob sykes says:

    This brings back memories. I lived in 02121 for eight years from 1958 to 1966, on Maybrook St.

    This was once a professional neighborhood (around 1900). It was a mixed Jewish/Catholic working class/small shop owner neighborhood when I moved there, but it transitioned to a black slum. The housing is actually pretty nice: three story Dorchester walkups (see Gone Baby Gone) and large single family homes. Lot sizes are 50 ft x 100 ft.

    I’ve been living in the woods for the last 36 years and couldn’t stand the urban density of even Dorchester, which is an order of magnitude less dense than NYC. There are in fact very few parts of Boston that come close to NYC’s density.

    Of course, they closed the zoo and kept the subways running. Sheer genius. Every city in the country did that.

    • Replies: @moshe
  16. @JohnnyWalker123

    Better than expected in February.
    No rush to hospitals. A few hotspots which could be tracked back quite easily – mostly to some ski-resorts in Austria and/ or to Northern Italy (Lombardy and Tyrol) – but even these hot-spots have the outbreak under control now, like Steinbach, a village near Schwäbisch Hall in the south.

    A few relatives have caught it there. – None of them died, but one (a 62 years old, healthy man), did suffer quite badly (“never suffered like this before in my life”)).

    The lockdown is fading out around here, the borders will be open next week, people go back to work (some – like all the trades, never stopped working). There’ll be no singing in the churches for a while – humming is welcome (or tender singing).

    The theater and cinemas will stay closed though, as will the symphonic orchestra.

    My Konstanz tire dealer sells boats, too. Elegant Italian boats. I talked to him this morning. He told me, that all boat manufactories in Northern Italy he works with (and all the rest – all the rest!) is in Chinese hands – so – Salvini was right from the beginning about the Chinese origin of CO-19 in Northern Italy, he concluded. Of course, the government in Italy still does not acknowledge this simple truth – China is the cow, that spends the holy milk and lays the golden eggs in Italy…they work worldly wonders: They bought the bankrupt Genua harbor and – are making profits with it now – nobody in Italy could for – half a century before…incredible, but true).

    We are asked to wear masks in shops trains and buses – did I wear a mask when I bought my tires today? No. Did my dealer or one of his employees wear one? – No. I do wear a mask though when I ride a bus or a train (what I try to avoid – I mostly ride the bike around town and about 1o miles beyond).

    He was worried about my choice of tires though – I bought – for technical reasons – South Korean ones. My dealer did not like this – : – ” (…) next time around, you take one of those produced by us” (us meaning for him: Preferably Germany, or Poland, France, Hungary – whatever – but: Not South Korea, China, or Taiwan…).
    “I know its good for them”, he said. “But…

    • Replies: @Jack D
    , @epebble
    , @AnotherDad
  17. @Ed

    It’s like graffiti. These people are vandalizing the English language for kicks, and because they can, and because they know that this weak culture will do nothing to stop them.

    • Agree: Ed
  18. Anonymous[229] • Disclaimer says:


    What are we to make of this? Article could use some additional commentary from you.

  19. Anon[797] • Disclaimer says:

    By the way, Steve, have you been following the obsessive, data-geeky testing articles by Alexis Madrigal and Robinson Meyer at The Atlantic?

  20. Travis says:

    By this point is is clear that there a ceiling on the number of people who are prone to be infected with the disease. Do many of us have some kind of natural protection against infection ? Would it ever spread among more than about one in four people ?

    Even among households living with someone with COVID19 , 80% will never contract the disease. Even among the elderly on the cruise ships infection rates never exceeded 20%. NYC hospital workers rarely get infected, only 10% of Hospital workers and the NYPD have developed the antibodies because most people can fight off coronavirus with their innate immune system. For those who have week immune systems they should be taking Vitamin D, C and zinc with quercetin. Nursing home patients should be on hydroxychloroquine if they want it. But instead of allowing nursing home patients to receive HCQ it is actually prohibited in most states. Sad that we send COVID patients to live among the most at risk elderly in nursing homes without giving them access to HCQ. This is the opposite to a quarantine. Might as well pump aerosolized coronavirus into the rooms of elderly sick people. The one Nursing home which gave HCQ to its residents has been criticized for using this promising prophylactic, instead of being praised for saving lives.

    The agenda thus far has been to maximize the pain and suffering of the healthy and increase the death rate of the most vulnerable. Mission accomplished.

    • Agree: moshe
    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
  21. @UK

    Nah, the boxes go for at least $1500.

    • Replies: @Ghost of Bull Moose
  22. Statistics released by the city have shown the coronavirus is impacting Black residents at a higher rate than white residents, although officials said the test results showed “there were no significant differences in COVID-19 or antibody rates by race or ethnicity in this sample.”

    So, same percentage infected, but higher impact on blacks than on others. Some reasons:
    “Non-Hispanic blacks (49.6%) had the highest age-adjusted prevalence of obesity, followed by Hispanics (44.8%), non-Hispanic whites (42.2%) and non-Hispanic Asians (17.4%).”

    So you’d expect if obesity were causing deaths that you’d see a similar cline in COVID from comorbidities.

    Another thought:

    Conclusion: Latitude was found to be a statistically significant risk factor for vitamin D deficiency. Additionally, the findings suggest that persons with darker skin tone and, to a lesser degree, men and persons who are overweight or obese are also at increased risk for vitamin D deficiency.

    At about the latitude of Boston and above it is impossible for a person with African skin to obtain enough Vitamin D from solar radiation in the winter months. Supplementation is necessary. Obesity means a higher volume to surface area ratio, and so is also affiliated with vitamin D deficiency.

    So: obesity + darker skin + winter = weaker immune system from lower Vitamin d. Is this perhaps a clue? Dunno.

    I would love to see black CFR’s compared for NYC and New Orleans, for instance. Or NYC versus FL.

    • Replies: @epebble
  23. Tim says:

    Yes, Latinx is BS. I also noted “black” is capitalized, but ‘white’ is not

  24. Erik L says:

    I’ll keep repeating this- look at the history of flu pandemics. We don’t reach the herd immunity number before they abate, not even close.

  25. res says:
    @Dieter Kief

    This is probably relevant.
    Human leukocyte antigen susceptibility map for SARS-CoV-2

    Genetic variability across the three major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I genes (human leukocyte antigen [lsqb]HLA[rsqb] A, B, and C) may affect susceptibility to and severity of severe acute respiratory syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus responsible for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We execute a comprehensive in silico analysis of viral peptide-MHC class I binding affinity across 145 HLA -A, -B, and -C genotypes for all SARS-CoV-2 peptides. We further explore the potential for cross-protective immunity conferred by prior exposure to four common human coronaviruses. The SARS-CoV-2 proteome is successfully sampled and presented by a diversity of HLA alleles. However, we found that HLA-B*46:01 had the fewest predicted binding peptides for SARS-CoV-2, suggesting individuals with this allele may be particularly vulnerable to COVID-19, as they were previously shown to be for SARS (Lin M, Tseng H-K, Trejaut JA, Lee H-L, Loo J-H, Chu C-C, Chen P-J, Su Y-W, Lim KH, Tsai Z-U, Lin R-Y, Lin R-S, Huang C-H. BMC Med Genet 4:9. 2003.). Conversely, we found that HLA-B*15:03 showed the greatest capacity to present highly conserved SARS-CoV-2 peptides that are shared among common human coronaviruses, suggesting it could enable cross-protective T-cell based immunity. Finally, we report global distributions of HLA types with potential epidemiological ramifications in the setting of the current pandemic.

    • Thanks: ic1000
    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
  26. Jack D says:
    @Dieter Kief

    I bought – for technical reasons – South Korean [tires]. My dealer did not like this

    I don’t think an American tire dealer would dare voice this nowadays. Good way to piss off your customers.

    Personally, I favor Michelin tires (the French are world leaders in certain technologies although they’ve never been able to get their cars to sell in the US) but most of the tires that they sell in the US are made in the US. Even my S. Korean car came with Michelin tires (originally they were equipped with Korean tires but before the time I bought mine they had to do a recall on the model due to problems with the factory equipped Korean tires and I guess this soured them on Hankooks – this must have been a major loses of face for Hankook).

    Of course in the US nowadays if you want a 100% American tire your choices are somewhat limited. Goodrich is also owned by Michelin and Firestone is owned by (Japanese) Bridgestone. Goodyear is the last of the major tire mfrs. that is still American owned. The low end of the tire market (store brand tires) would have been overrun by the Chinese by now but I think a few years ago they put a dumping tariff on them that made them less competitive. Unfortunately, this screw US consumers who now have to pay stiff prices for tires.

    • Agree: Johann Ricke
  27. @moshe

    I’m in zip code 10014 (SoHo/NoHo). The streets are significantly busier this week than they have been since the initial lockdown. Mask/face covering usage on the streets is probably around 75%, in the grocery store I shop it’s near 100% (for employees it is 100%).

    The people not wearing face coverings fall basically into two groups: homeless/panhandlers (25% usage), and people under the age of 30 (50% usage).

    There’s definitely a feeling that the streets are less safe, although it is improving. Most of the increase in crime is property crime and confrontations among homeless/crusties/junkies. I wouldn’t recommend walking around alone after dark.

    • Thanks: moshe
    • Replies: @moshe
  28. “This is a sample of residents in four zip codes…”

    These are kind of dumpy and diverse neighborhoods.

    When you plug a US ZIP Code™ [sic] into some of the weather sites, they’ll give you not just your own neighborhood, but others in Mexico, Brazil, and perhaps other countries with 5-digit postal codes. The resulting barrios/bairros*, etc, are often dumpy, but rarely diverse.

    This could be quite a fun game to play. What are the infection rates in the various 90120s?

    *”From Old Portuguese bairro, barrio, from Arabic بَرِيّ‎ (bariyy, “savage”), referring to the outer, surrounding or less civilized or urbanized parts of a city. Compare Spanish barrio.”

  29. moshe says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    See Tehillim (Psalms) 92:7 An “ish baar”, similar to the “boor” is a character very much like a “boor” in English (stemming from the Dutch but taking a more pejorative meaning than in Afrikaans).

  30. @anonymous2space

    You got it wrong. Capitalist, monopolist, corporatist, globalist policies since 1973 have ruined every healthy and sick young and old adult and child’s life forever.

    Maybe you’re too young and think your own life, your own world, is the way it always is was and ever shall be. That’s how young people tend to be. Older people are smarter than that.

  31. @TomSchmidt

    You might get a box for 1,500, if you’re willing to live out by JFK.

  32. epebble says:
    @Dieter Kief

    all boat manufactories in Northern Italy he works with (and all the rest – all the rest!) is in Chinese hands

    …they work worldly wonders: They bought the bankrupt Genua harbor and – are making profits with it now – nobody in Italy could for – half a century before…incredible, but true

    Can you expound on these? Isn’t the boat market (being luxury good) somewhat price inelastic? i.e. people buy boats even if the price is high.

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
  33. epebble says:

    I think your observation may have some validity. South Africa, has most deaths among darker skinned Africans (247 deaths, 4 per million). Belgium, at 9005 deaths is 777 per million. The ratio of over 100 has remained for 60+ days.

  34. @Reg Cæsar

    “When you plug a US ZIP Code™ [sic] into some of the weather sites”


    Why sic? Is Zone Improvement Plan trademarked? Former postal worker here. I don’t get it, but tanx for the larf.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  35. moshe says:
    @bob sykes

    Can you expand on what you mean by “living in the woods”? I have friends who live in fairly off the road places but they still have neighbors about a kilometer away. Are you living similarly or even more secluded? I always love visiting my friends for a weekend but I’ve never tried living like that for longer than a week. My friends are a much older couple and they do seem pretty happy though.

  36. moshe says:

    Are museums opening? Are people steering clear of strangers? Any weekend nightlife?

    On airbnb NYC is incredibly cheap nowadays and renting a place for $900 a month is doable but I’d rather rent a place for a few months from somebody I can actually talk to and meet first. Any chance you know of someone?

    As for people mentioning how expensive NYC is. Yes. I know I have lived in each of the boroughs, and in some boroughs more than once. But it was expensive because until 3 months ago new york city was a destination the entire world was moving to. Now the universities and the arts are closed snd it is known as ground zero for coronavirus.

    As a coronavirus skeptic I’m not at all concerned about it (or at least not any more concerned than I am of any other sort of common respiratory virus) but I am concerned that NYC might not be the awesome human souo that I live it for if everyone is walking around masked and hating their neighbor.

    But thanks to the fears and the shutdown NYC apartments are available at more than 50% off. It is, for the first time in 19 years, a renter’s market.

    So, an extra few thousand dollars in anyone’s pocket to rent me an apartment that would otherwise be empty is a real win/win.

  37. @Ed

    Every time I see “Latinx” my blood boils.

  38. leterip says:

    Using diverse assays for detection of antibodies reactive with the SARS-CoV-2 Spike (S) glycoprotein, we demonstrate the presence of pre-existing immunity in uninfected and unexposed humans to the new coronavirus.

    Apologies if someone has already posted this preprint. But it looks increasingly likely that many people were, without being infected, already immune to CV. If true, this will have a massive impact on the % infected needed to achieve herd immunity. It would also explain the quick burnout of the virus even in locations where the IR has been relatively low. It may also explain why so few children are getting this disease as they are typically exposed to many more viruses.

    • Thanks: vhrm
  39. @epebble

    The boats Martin Steiner sells are regular guy’s boats. Craftspeople, trade persons, lawyers – people who have maybe 20 to 50 k at their hand and want a nice sweetwater boat for a Sunday on the lake – or the upper Rhine.  

    The more stylish ones start at something like 60 000 Euros … and the really nice boats from the little traditional wharves at the Lake of Guarda, for example, are well above 100 000 Euros.

    Here is a nice used one:

  40. utu says:

    ” The virus was detected everywhere on the ship, and no isolation of patients was done for weeks. yet only 20% of the passengers contracted coronavirus. “ Not true. Passengers were sequestered in their cabins on day 14 of the trip. And not 20% but 17%. Here is the timeline:

    Jan 20 – Mr. A, a Hong Kong resident (who visited Shenzhen and Guangdong on Jan. 10) boards DP in Yokohama
    Jan 20 – DP departs Yokohama
    Jan 25 – Mr. A diembarks in Hong Kong
    Feb 1 – Hong Kong’s government announced that COVID-19 was confirmed in Mr. A
    Feb 1 – DP stops at Okinawa and begins quarantine
    Feb 3- DP arrives at Yokohama passengers and crew are quarantined
    Feb 5 – A 14-day health observation period is set for all passengers and crew members

    The experts were not asking the question why only 17% of passengers and crew got infected but why so many, why the quarantine was not as effective as expected. Was it because the infection spreads so fast that they got infected prior to the lockdown when all passengers were quarantined in their cabins or because the lockdown was ineffective and passengers were infected during the lockdown from the crew delivering food and necessities or through other paths like balconies were some of them were seen w/o masks, or air conditioning system.

    The meme, the talking point about the Diamond Princess which is 180 degree inversions of the truth that you have presented here is a part of a wider dis-information repertoire coming from the Just-the Flu, Stop-Kicking-Can-Down-the-Road, Let-it-Rip, Sweden is New Jerusalem crowd. Is there a center where from this dis-information is being fed and coordinated?

    Read about the KGB’s Operation INFEKTION (wiki). It was before the era of internet so it took more time to launch and to get ‘viral’ and required more operational sophistication.

  41. @anonymous2space

    Should I do a comment section daily update like Ann Coulter does for Trump’s Wall?

    Yet another drama queen whining that the lockdown is ruining lives FOREVER.


    I think the lockdown is stupid. (Quarantining the sick, closing super-spreading activities, wearing masks in transit, public spaces would seem to me to cover it.)

    But it’s … a recession. Stupid government policy–see housing bubble–has directly caused recessions before as well as exacerbating it. We were going to get a recession from this virus regardless. The government reactions just made it worse–way worse. We’ve had recessions from dot-commie insanity. We’ve had recessions because of our “special relationship” with Israel. (Arab oil embargo.) Heck, we’ve probably even had a virus recession before–the Asian flu, coincided with the sharp slow down in late ’57 kicking off the ’58 recession.

    Bottom line: it’s a recession. It’s not the first or the last that you’ll see in your life. It may mess up your life right now, but unless you let it, it doesn’t mess up your life “FOREVER”. It is a transient.

    In contrast, mass immigration is not a transient. It is making your life–and your children’s lives, and their children’s lives ….–worse *permanently*, worse every single day.

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  42. @Dieter Kief

    He was worried about my choice of tires though – I bought – for technical reasons – South Korean ones. My dealer did not like this – : – ” (…) next time around, you take one of those produced by us” (us meaning for him: Preferably Germany, or Poland, France, Hungary – whatever – but: Not South Korea, China, or Taiwan…).
    “I know its good for them”, he said. “But…

    Good to hear! A nationalist–or at least a “white-nationalist”–in Germany!

    I’d thought after 1945 and the oodles and boodles of the War and Holocaust mea-culpa-ing all Germans are pickled in that such sentiments were practically “Nazi!”

    Good to hear a German is willing to say the obvious–better that we buy what we produce right here and keep our fellow Germans/Europeans employed.

    Now maybe the great leap … your country and continent actually belongs to you too!

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
  43. Alden says:

    A bit of reality from San Diego County Ca, population 3.3 million. Originally SD public health dept reported 194 deaths from covid hoax. Friday it was announced that after further autopsies and study, only 6 of the 194 actually, really, truly died of Covid hoax.

    6 people out of 3.3 million in SD county. I wonder what the true figures really are Nation and world wide.

  44. @AnotherDad

    We need to balance European continentalism (Steve Sailer’s mot juste) and nationalism. – Copy the Swiss, more or less. Or Liechtenstein…

  45. vhrm says:

    Can’t find a link to the paper for the study and the news articles basically just take the press release and printed it (

    There’s reason to believe, imo, that the numbers are going to be skewed low esp among black residents: the response rate among blacks was relatively low at 5% (invited 55% of 5000 = 2750 and got 18.5% of 750 = 139)

    And the testing was “drive through”. What about people who don’t have cars?
    You know, people more likely to take public transit?

    Also, “Roughly 1,000 people expressed interest, and 786 were determined to be eligible, according to officials.”
    What disqualified that 1/4th of respondents, who are already from an invitation only pool? Was it current symptoms? previous positive tests? Lack of car?

    I know these selection issues show up on other studies too, but their choices here are a little stranger and i wonder what the authors have to say about them.

    Further note that they found 2.6% positive tests when excluding people with symptoms so the rate of current active cases is probably some multiple of that because many cases DO have symptoms. So let’s say 5% current active cases?
    (though otoh pcr tests keep testing positive for a long time after people aren’t infectious anymore in some people which would artificially inflate the rate).

    So i think there’s an argument to be made that the rate of past infection is higher, possibly a lot higher, among the people they didn’t test than among those that they did. But who knows.

    • Replies: @Marc b.
  46. BenKenobi says:

    The push-back begins with you. I always do the opposite — capitalize “White” and do not capitalize “black”, and don’t offer any explanation.

  47. Marc b. says:

    MA gov stats. Average age of death by Covid: 82; average life expectancy in MA: 80. 98.4% of decedents have co-morbidity. If you look at individual stats, a number 80-pluses are identified as having no co-morbidity. Yeah, right. So decedents with co-morbidity is probably closer to 99%. Over 60% of deaths are in long term care facilities, e.g. nursing homes.

    One of my kids had the quick test through CVS. We waited two hours. When we got to the testing tent, they handed her the swab to self administer the test. Aside from the reported problems with the quick tests themselves, the testing protocol is shit.

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  48. @Tim

    Although not a leftist, I love “Latinx” and use it whenever I can. With a single word one demonstrates how bat-crap crazy leftism is, and using your opponent’s weapons against him is among one of life’s greatest pleasures.

  49. @AnotherDad

    If you had a small business that went out because of the lockdown, perhaps a longtime family business, you’d not be so cavalier.

    And statistically, it is not a recession but a depression. These unemployment percentages exceed all recessions in the USA.

    You are right, of course, about the suicidal, culture-confusing, taxpayer-burdening, balkanizing, environment-destroying, worker-screwing / corporate employer-enriching waves of mass immigration that our rulers have inflicted on us.

  50. @Marc b.

    Link for Mass. stats would be great. I have this argument with “pandemic” hysterics almost daily.

    • Replies: @res
  51. @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    Why sic? Is Zone Improvement Plan trademarked?

    Go right to the source and ask the horse:

  52. @Tim

    I also noted “black” is capitalized, but ‘white’ is not

    Normal white men have never capitalized the word. That’s a wigger thing.

    Now excuse me while I return to my Stoddard…

  53. Marc b. says:

    If link doesn’t work just go to and look for Covid dashboard.

  54. @res

    Tanks. Susceptibility seems to differ widely – and be pretty complex. It will be interesting to see whether these new insights can be quantified with respect to the overall IFR number.

  55. @Travis

    For those who have week immune systems they should be taking Vitamin D, C and zinc with quercetin.

    Can you elaborate on Quercetin?

    • Replies: @Travis
  56. So, the Hub remains “locked down” due to a virus that almost never kills anyone in reasonably good health under the age of 70, and indeed fails to even sicken a significant number of people exposed to it? Good to know! People develop “anti-bodies” yet fail to have actual, reportable “symptoms?” Perhaps they have mild fatigue for a couple of days that they ascribe to other causes – partying, poor sleeping, drinking, or getting stoned? Yep, that’s certainly adequate cause for tinpot dictators like Walsh and Baker to bankrupt thousands of businesses, torpedo state finances, and curtail civil liberties!

  57. Anonymous[337] • Disclaimer says:

    Are these those guys in the movies with the accents ?

  58. @Ed

    According to that culture’s own Spanish language rules, Latin-American people are collectively “Latino:’ IOW the masculine form is the collective form. However, PC culture prohibits Good Whites from “respecting other cultures” when that would require abandonment of the new norms of Social Justice pushed by the Extreme Left. Life would be so much easier for SJW’s/NPC’s if these stubborn ethnics would simply adopt their way of thinking!

    • Agree: Ed
  59. Travis says:

    Quercetin is a zinc ionophore , like HCQ. Gets the zinc into the cells where it prevents viral replication.

    Zinc is a decidedly anti-viral mineral. High intracellular concentrations inhibit the replication of RNA type viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2. Zinc does this by blocking RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp), the core enzyme of their multiprotein replication and transcription complex that is critical for the copying of viral RNA. In high concentrations, zinc can block coronavirus reproduction, but the cell is typically disinclined to tolerate high levels of zinc…Enter the zinc ionophores..they are molecules that enhance the entry of zinc into the cell. These are known as zinc ionophores, and here’s the payoff: in addition to its effects on endosome pH, chloroquine has also been demonstrated to be a zinc ionophore.

    But there’s even more to the story. In addition to chloroquine, the nutraceuticals quercetin (bioflavonoid) and epigallocatechin-gallate (green tea polyphenol) are also zinc ionophores. Quercetin plus zinc is being tested as an anti-viral in human clinical trials for the treatment of Covid-19.

    Quinine is another potent antiviral and anti-inflammatory similar to chloroquine. Alters the PH of cells to prevent viral infection. In order to initiate replication, the virus requires that the endosome have a low (acidic) pH. Both drugs are weak bases (alkaline pH) and are rapidly taken up into the endosome, where they raise the pH to a point where viral replication can’t take place.The virus is therefore unable to release its genetic material into the cell and replicate.

    • Thanks: JohnnyWalker123
  60. res says:

    This? Don’t pay attention to the date in the link. Page was updated 5/16.

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