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iSteve commenter viennacapitalist writes:

Thought you and your readers might be interested in data from Austria (in lock down since March 14 – with active cases receding for five days, i.e. there have been more people recovering than newly infected) – there is too much focus on Germany here.

In Austria there have been two random studies conducted so far (sample size about 1500 each). Austria is the first country in continental Europe to come out with such a study (Iceland is the famous other country in Europe). One sample focused on professions assumed to be at high risk of infection (health care, supermarket employees) whereas the other aimed at getting a representative sample for the entire country.

First the results of the random study whose results were released yesterday:
About 0.33 percent of the population infected, or 28,500 people vs. 8,500 confirmed cases at the time (about 10 days ago), (95 percent confidence interval: 10,200 and 67,400). As of today there are slightly more than 300 fatalities which equates to a CFR of around 1 percent – Austrian hospitals are not overwhelmed with capacity similar to Germany.

One week ago, the results of another random study was published that focused on professions at risk: Result: 0.5 percent of health care workers were infected but, interestingly, out of 350 tested supermarket employees NONE were infected, suggesting the virus might be less contagious under certain circumstances than generally assumed. At the time of the study masks in supermarkets were not compulsory (they have become so since April 6th)

One week ago I read in the newspaper that in Austria there is a group who tries to trace and identify infections – similar to what Mr. Streeck is doing. They had traced about 150 cases and I remember the article said that they could not find indications of casual infections, in all cases there had been close contact for at least 15 minutes between for the infection to happen – Prof Streeck mentions similar findings. They said, that it looks the virus is less contagious than previously thought.

My preliminary conclusion:
The virus seems to have binary properties: not very contageous under most circumstances, but highly contagious in others. I am no expert on this, but believe that solving the superspreader issue is key to understanding this thing. I am surprised that no modeller has tried to come up with an “adjusted R0” , adjusted for superspreaders that is – what if we find out that eliminating superspreaders (or events) reduces R0 to close to 1?

I am also surprised that not more random studies have been conducted around the world in order to better get a final grip on the data.

But to give the Germans more attention, iSteve commenter GermanReader2_new asks some good questions:

Did they say anything about the estimated infection rate in cities vs the countryside, age groups etc.? In Munich around 0.2% of the population is already infected without extrapolating (they are doing some studies right now to estimate the true infection rate and spread in the city by randomly picking a few thousand people and testing them every 4 weeks). What I really would like to know are the infection rates of the locals in the ski towns (Ischgl) by profession. I think most of the Barkeepers in the apres ski bars are probably positive, but how about the hoteliers etc?

Right, as I keep trying to communicate, the “reopen the economy” question shouldn’t be a monolithic G0-No Go decision for everybody everywhere, but should instead optimize the tradeoff between risk and reward.

To do that, it would greatly help to know the infection / hospitalization / death rates of different occupations. For example, there are a lot of shoe salesmen in New York City. On average, have shoe store workers gotten by safely or have been they hit hard?

That may not seem like an important question, but it is to shoe store employees, shoe store owners, and to potential shoe store customers.

Let’s try to find out.

Outsiders could start by scanning obituaries for people under, say, 65 and tabulating their occupations.

 
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  1. “CFR of around 1 percent” – Could be higher because of 2-3 weeks lag between infection and death.

    • Agree: res
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    What's Diamond Princess up to: 1.5% IFR for average age of 58?

    I'm perhaps more worried about the potential for 3% long-term debilitation of middle aged people. The mean age of ICU patients in Britain is 60. I'm highly interested in how fully Boris Johnson, 55 and not without his sins but definitely a man of vigor, recovers.

  2. Risk and Reward.

    Instead of applying Risk/Reward analysis to re-opening the economy–why don’t we begin applying it to ‘Flatten the Curve’?

    Thus far, we’ve blindly pursued a ‘Flatten The Curve At All Costs, No Matter What Because No Other Deaths Matter Besides COVID-19‘ strategy.

    Maybe there are worse things than COVID. Maybe ‘Stop COVID At All Costs‘–actually costs too much.

    Of course, accepting this new reality means more deaths from COVID–and this is truly a sad thing. But, it also would mean less deaths from suicide, despair, societal-breakdown, crime, hunger, all the other maladies and illnesses which currently are being ignored–‘because COVID, stupid’…among so many others.

    Now, what I just wrote may seem callous with respect to COVID sufferers. I don’t mean it that way. I just don’t think we can snuff out COVID without incurring even worse outcomes in doing so.

    And on that subject of being callous—I’m starting to get the impression that the COVID-Flat-Curvers don’t really give a flying f*ck about the suffering being imposed from treating COVID like it’s The Black Plague. So, maybe it’s the COVID-Flat-Curvers who are actually being callous here.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    We've made a lot of progress on flattening the curve. We should be thinking hard about easing off the brakes, but in an intelligent fashion: e.g., open beaches and golf courses, followed by tennis courts and garden stores, but not yet Spirit Cycle or minor league opera or movie theaters or dance clubs. Reward companies that invest in R0-lowering capital improvements by moving them up in the queue.
    , @Not My Economy
    What's happening here is that we are a people who have been denied a grand purpose. I believe human beings fundamentally desire some kind of "at all costs" problem to contend with.

    We have organized our society entirely around maximizing shareholder value. For members of capital, this obviously works very well as a grand "at all costs" purpose. But for most people, its hollow.

    Now there is something to care about again, and people are jumping at the chance.

    So, again, complain about it, or, use it to advantage.

    "At all costs" Okay... The cost of destroying COVID-19 is we restructure society around kids, families, local living, etc, etc. No more immigration, no more jet-set, no more chinese made garbage. Also, you have to shut up about systemic racism. Let's go.

    , @Mr. Anon

    And on that subject of being callous—I’m starting to get the impression that the COVID-Flat-Curvers don’t really give a flying f*ck about the suffering being imposed from treating COVID like it’s The Black Plague. So, maybe it’s the COVID-Flat-Curvers who are actually being callous here.
     
    Yes, the spectacle of aging boomers wagging thier fingers at everyone about how selfish they are being for just living their life is becoming disgusting. Denying millions of other people formative live experiences that older generations took for granted - that isn't selfish? Denying other people medical care that doesn't pertain to COVID-19 (including cancer-screening diagnostic procedures) - that isn't selfish? Casually throwing away civil liberties - that isn't selfish? Throwing millions of people out of work - that isn't selfish? Crushing tens of thousands of small businesses - that isn't selfish?

    The Hong Kong Flu struck America in 1968-1969. It killed an estimated 100,000 Americans, 1 million worldwide (most in that first year, with additional cases out to1972). You may not have heard of it; it barely rates a mention in most capsule histories of the time, what with Vietnam, Apollo 8, etc. It was perhaps not quite so bad a pandemic as the Asian Flu of 1957, which killed a similar number of people. The public health officials at the time - who were closer in time (and perhaps even memory and experience) to the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic didn't freakout like ours today have.

    Imagine if we had done then what we're doing now? Think of what those self-same boomers would have said if told to stay indoors, stay away from everybody. How would they have reacted if they had been told: what are you complaining about man? - you didn't have to fight WWII - you just have to stay home. Watch Greenacres and Gunsmoke. No Woodstock for you- you need to social-distance.
    , @TomSchmidt
    I’m starting to get the impression that the COVID-Flat-Curvers don’t really give a flying f*ck about the suffering being imposed from treating COVID like it’s The Black Plague.

    Welcome to the party, pal.

    You can help answer this. Are there any second-order death effects in the London model for Corona? Of course, now the argument is the models aren't SUPPOSED to be correct:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-models-arent-supposed-be-right/609271/

    That is one of the better articles explaining why you might want to lock down the economy, BTW. We know now that it will likely kill more people from poverty and deaths of despair than the virus will, but we probably didn't know that then.

    , @AnotherDad


    Now, what I just wrote may seem callous with respect to COVID sufferers. I don’t mean it that way. I just don’t think we can snuff out COVID without incurring even worse outcomes in doing so.

    And on that subject of being callous—I’m starting to get the impression that the COVID-Flat-Curvers don’t really give a flying f*ck about the suffering being imposed from treating COVID like it’s The Black Plague. So, maybe it’s the COVID-Flat-Curvers who are actually being callous here.
     
    Darn straight Bitfu. We have a pretty good handle on the range and target market for corona-chan. And this "people will die!" hysteria is over the top.

    There's nothing callous about saying "there are tradeoffs."

    2.8 million Americans died last year. How many of them could have been "saved" for 4 trillion dollars! Well if "saved" means eke out a year or two more of life ... a whole 'effing lot of them!


    How many years of life could be saved with the sort of police power that's wielded now?

    First off, i'm banning smoking. I'm banning drug use. I'm banning homosexuality--not the "orientation" but the behavior. And tattoos--no. (Better aesthetics makes people happier and saves lives.)

    I'm closing down Facebook and Twitter. Cell phones will have interlocks and can not be used more than an hour in any one day. (Contractors can get get a waver but content will be monitored.) Women will be less annoying and that will save marriages, reduce stress, cut heart attacks and save lives.

    TVs and other screens will have an interlock. And all will be cut off from say 6-7 pm when all Americans are expected to get out and walk. If that doesn't work--ankle bracelets aren't too expensive.

    And Americans are simply eating too much. Food will be rationed and consumption monitored by home video cameras connected to expert systems.

    And i'm putting Americans on a diet. I'm a bit overweight. So i fast (skip eating) one day a month. (More as willpower thing. I try and get into mild ketosis daily with a 16 hr break between meals.) All Americans can easily, cheaply be float tested for body fat. A good slice won't need any fast days. Another large slice is in my bucket and could skip eat one or two days a month. Then we scale up with excess fat through three, four, five ... days a month without food. A good 10-15% of Americans will be put on the Bobby Sands diet.

    Give me these powers and i'll save millions of American lives! So why aren't we doing it?
    , @anon
    Thus far, we’ve blindly pursued a ‘Flatten The Curve At All Costs, No Matter What Because No Other Deaths Matter Besides COVID-19‘ strategy.

    Flattening the curve means that ICU's do not become stuffed full of COVID-19 patients. Therefore ICU space is available for other people, such as survivors of car accidents and other accidents, women who had complications with birth, sick children and so forth and so on.

    Keeping ICU space available for everyone is a good thing . Perhaps you should think through your ideas more fully, and dial back on the rage.
    , @RichardTaylor

    And on that subject of being callous—I’m starting to get the impression that the COVID-Flat-Curvers don’t really give a flying f*ck about the suffering being imposed from treating COVID like it’s The Black Plague. So, maybe it’s the COVID-Flat-Curvers who are actually being callous here.
     
    Exactly right. I can't tell if it's a sperg-out or if it's a lack of empathy for anyone but themselves. Or both.
  3. Maybe Vienna is not much infected yet, but these Austrian numbers are not in line with the numbers from Gangelt and also Robbio in Lombardy, where they also did a representative sample. Both found around 10-15% people infected. Not that Robbio is southwest of Milan, not Northeast. Number of deaths is limited in comparison to Bergamo province. My own calculations for the Netherlands say that the number of people who had the disease varies from less then 0.2% in the less affected regions till probably >15% in the most affected regions. For the whole of the country the best estimates say that between 0.3 and 1.2 million have already been sick or still have the disease, that is between 2 and 8% of the population.

    • Replies: @LemmusLemmus
    Gangelt is the hardest-hit place in all of Germany. It was selected for study on that basis.
    , @viennacapitalist
    The 15 percent in Gangelt are not representative, as the authors of the study keep pointing out in German newspapers. This town is a known hotspot due to some carneval event which everybody in this 3.000 people village attended. Same fror Lombardy

    In Austria the hotspot's are in the Alpine Regions of Tyrol where certain villages even were completely locked-down for three weeks (nobody allowed to exit or enter the village without explicit permission). There I would assume infection rates are closer to what you have in other hotspots.
    For instance, in Landeck (Tyrol) district with 7.700 inhabitants there have been 930 CONFIRMED cases, i.e. close to 15 percent without taking shadow numbers into account.

    See here for confirmed cases per district in Austria:
    https://www.addendum.org/coronavirus/oesterreich-verbreitung/
  4. …interestingly, out of 350 tested supermarket employees NONE were infected, suggesting the virus might be less contagious under certain circumstances than generally assumed.

    Two black middle-age men who worked at the same Chicago-area Walmart store in Evergreen Park, Illinois died from Covid-19. When the family of one of the victims, a 15-year Walmart employee – overnight stocker and maintenance associate, had their request for burial assistance ignored by Walmart’s employee emergency relief fund and they received calls from other employees about the poor working conditions and other workers with symptoms, they decided to file a wrongful death lawsuit which immediately got Walmart’s attention.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/06/coronavirus-walmart-employees-family-files-wrongful-death-lawsuit.html

    • Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome


    Two black middle-age men who worked at the same Chicago-area Walmart

     

    Evans, 51, of Chicago, died March 25 due to complications of COVID-19 with morbid obesity a contributing factor

    We really should start a charity fund to discover a cure for "complications".
    , @Triumph104
    Four Kroger supermarket employees across Michigan have died from Covid-19. Two or more Meijers supermarket employees have died (Meijers will not give a number).
    https://www.wzzm13.com/mobile/article/news/health/coronavirus/kroger-4-covid-deaths-michigan/69-2b5c9ee1-811d-4f94-95a1-c479afc36b7a
  5. @Bitfu
    Risk and Reward.

    Instead of applying Risk/Reward analysis to re-opening the economy--why don't we begin applying it to 'Flatten the Curve'?

    Thus far, we've blindly pursued a 'Flatten The Curve At All Costs, No Matter What Because No Other Deaths Matter Besides COVID-19' strategy.

    Maybe there are worse things than COVID. Maybe 'Stop COVID At All Costs'--actually costs too much.

    Of course, accepting this new reality means more deaths from COVID--and this is truly a sad thing. But, it also would mean less deaths from suicide, despair, societal-breakdown, crime, hunger, all the other maladies and illnesses which currently are being ignored--'because COVID, stupid'...among so many others.

    Now, what I just wrote may seem callous with respect to COVID sufferers. I don't mean it that way. I just don't think we can snuff out COVID without incurring even worse outcomes in doing so.

    And on that subject of being callous---I'm starting to get the impression that the COVID-Flat-Curvers don't really give a flying f*ck about the suffering being imposed from treating COVID like it's The Black Plague. So, maybe it's the COVID-Flat-Curvers who are actually being callous here.

    We’ve made a lot of progress on flattening the curve. We should be thinking hard about easing off the brakes, but in an intelligent fashion: e.g., open beaches and golf courses, followed by tennis courts and garden stores, but not yet Spirit Cycle or minor league opera or movie theaters or dance clubs. Reward companies that invest in R0-lowering capital improvements by moving them up in the queue.

    • Replies: @Bitfu
    OR, we could say--

    Our models were wrong. Sorry.

    So...If you're younger than 60 and not a diabetic/overweight/high blood pressure person, get back to work--because the chances of you dying from this are really, REALLY low. Like, lightening strike low.

    If you're over 60, or in a high risk group, take measures to isolate yourselves. We have government programs to assist you.
     
    , @Federalist

    WE should be thinking hard about easing off the brakes ...
     
    Like the old joke goes: "What do you mean 'WE', white man?" We don't get to decide shit.

    We had no say in closing down businesses or ordering people to stay in their houses. To your delight, governors and mayors assumed arbitrary power to "flatten the curve." They decide when or if this ends.

    "We" won't be consulted
  6. @utu
    "CFR of around 1 percent" - Could be higher because of 2-3 weeks lag between infection and death.

    What’s Diamond Princess up to: 1.5% IFR for average age of 58?

    I’m perhaps more worried about the potential for 3% long-term debilitation of middle aged people. The mean age of ICU patients in Britain is 60. I’m highly interested in how fully Boris Johnson, 55 and not without his sins but definitely a man of vigor, recovers.

    • Replies: @Sean
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BEoiZAbJsaM

    That is what he watched last night. The aesthetics of failure.
    , @UK
    That isn't the IFR for the Diamond Princess. Some will have had it and recovered before being tested. Many false negatives would have been taken. And some refused testing.

    Obviously there also needs to be an age adjustment for any lessons to be drawn from it.

    As for this post, it is deceptively pessimistic. You using the ratio of confirmed cases to randomly found cases is the problem.

    The randomly found cases are those in the particular snapshot part of the disease who test positive in one moment in time. A fraction of those who would have tested positive if this snapshot were taken over the 2 months+ of the disease.

    Meanwhile he confirmed cases were those in that snapshot over lots of different times. The randomly found cases would therefore be missing very many, not just because of recoveries and people not having developed enough yet, but also because it was a one time only thing being compared to a many time thing.
    , @AnotherDad

    I’m highly interested in how fully Boris Johnson, 55 and not without his sins but definitely a man of vigor, recovers.
     
    Boris Johnson isn't just "not without his sins". He is an embarrassment. And i'm not just talking about his globalist, immigration loving treason against the British people. His behavior and his resulting disgusting physique are an abuse of the body/life he was given. I think he slimmed down a bit to run for PM, but you could still cut Boris open and pull out layer upon layer of lard enough to supply cooking oil to a small Bangladeshi village for a year--with leftover for candles.

    Not being pompous. I'm not without sin myself. I could afford to lose some weight. (Just went to the scale--158. I've got 8-10 lbs of belly blubber that should not be there. One family's yearly oil supply.) But i'm actually capable of pushing back from the table. And--as difficult as it is--pulling myself from iSteve to go beach with AnotherMom or swim in the pool.

    I've never seen any American held down while people cram donuts into their mouths. No American is prevented from just getting their ass up off the couch and walking around for an hour instead of watching TV. (Well at least not until a month ago!) Yet a lot of folks look like they have just been paroled from the feedlot. A whole new species--"Land Whale Americanus".

    The bottom line: millions of Americans have *chosen* to do this to themselves--make themselves prime corona-chan targets, by abusing themselves with drugs or smoking or sheer gluttony.

    Corona chan is killing a few folks who've just had bad luck-- bad roll of the genetic dice, happened to get a megadose from a super-spreader. But beyond the "near end of their lives" elderly, most of the victims of this thing who are losing significant years of life have made poor choices that have made them a victim.

    Maybe i'm just a crappy human being. But though Catholic, i was raised with the standard American Protestant work ethic view--if you want something in life get your ass outta bed and work for it. The corollary: you do the crime, you do the time. People own the choices they make, including abusing their bodies. Now the Chinese have sent a collection agent.

    , @utu
    "I’m perhaps more worried about the potential for 3% long-term debilitation of middle aged people." - I am afraid we do not know much about it.
    , @Sean
    https://www.livescience.com/too-much-ventilator-use-for-covid19-coronavirus-patients.html

    COVID-19 patients do not have typical pneumonia--it is much milder--apparently because they clear CO2, so they often do not need ventilators and don't benefit from the sedation required to be put on ventilator and even less from the extra pressure that a ventilator puts in the lungs. The COVID-19 patients do tend to be low in oxygen, sometimes very low, but the lasting damage usually associated with the aftermath of such low oxygen levels is absent. Johnson was just given oxygen, and that is becoming the default treatment.

  7. I am also surprised that not more random studies have been conducted around the world in order to better get a final grip on the data.

    I’m not. This “crisis” has been a statist’s wet dream. Introducing meaningful data at this point would prematurely cut off the panoply control measures they’ve been dying to unleash on the public they’ve been working decades to dumb down and enfeeble. Besides, we might still have enough fight in us at this point to come at them with pitchforks.

    • Agree: UK
  8. Many counties around the United States are posting test results online. As far as I know, no one has put up a collated database of county level testing results.

    For example, the rural NY county where someone I know is holed up has the numbers, below, as of today.

    I speculate that a random sample from that county would show an even lower incidence of positives, since for the tests performed thus far, there is some reason why the test was performed. Either the patient was reporting suspicious symptoms, or felt unsure and had themselves tested.

    Note that these numbers are from New York State, which has 175,000 cases in all, thus far.

    Total Tested for COVID-19 2290
    Pending 127
    Positive Test Results 112
    Negative Test Results 2051
    Recovered 82
    Deaths 1
    Currently Hospitalized 4

    Here are the results in Humboldt County, in California, similarly remote and rural.

    https://humboldtgov.org/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=2715

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Russell Warne posts the % positive in Utah each day, and they are seldom much above 5% of those tested.
  9. Between half and two third of a population need to have the antibodies for there to be no bounceback COVID-19 epidemic and associated deaths after the lockdown is loosened. But there is absolutely no reason to think that any Western country but Sweden will ever get to that ‘herd immunity’ point without a mass vaccination.

    As with so many other things in life you have to bring some to get some. Every country but Sweden is running like their pants are on fire from COVID-19 deaths., thereby prolonging the agony by Flattening The Curve. Maybe also broadening it, for avoiding Dread Risk uproar is what the politician in power in countries other that Sweden are all about, and FTC may end up killing more people in the long run. Sweden is taking it on the chin, while protecting the old folks. It’s a strategy that will put them in an enviable economic and immunological situation in a month or so.

    • Replies: @The Alarmist

    It’s a strategy that will put them in an enviable economic and immunological situation in a month or so.
     
    Assuming they close their borders to new migrants and asylees, but that's not who they are.
    , @Almost Missouri
    Yeah, there's a larger meta-problem within which this Coronacrisis is occurring.

    As in the frequently used metaphor of a forest fire, half of the problem is the fire, but half of the problem is the fuel. If you have a NO FIRES EVER policy for your forests, deadwood and underbrush build up among your trees until when the conflagration eventually comes, it's a doozie.

    Currently, most governments are pursuing a policy of—to preserve the metaphor—keeping as much underbrush as possible. While this would be crazy in forest management, it is understandable pragmatically in democracies as the old and infirm vote at least as much as anyone else. But it means your country will have a permanent hair-trigger sensitivity to any ignitions (viral outbreaks) since it is always carrying a big load of dry tinder (vulnerable people).

    I'm not advocating for a "controlled burn" of the elderly and co-morbid. I'm just observing this situation where powerful governments try to pursue two mutually exclusive objectives: maximum protection of the immunofeeble (Save the underbrush!), and maximum globalization (Bring the fire!).

    We can't really have both.

    This would be the perfect opportunity for Trump to enact the ¡Borders Si! platform he ran on, but it is abundantly clear by now that he never really meant it, so he won't bother. I personally would welcome at least measures to sanitize NYC, which is by far the most crowded and filthy city in the US, but that would be a small upside compared to what is possible at this moment: re-shoring industry, controlling all border traffic, employing Americans first, scrutinizing and rejecting all unsuitable visitors, UBI, national hygiene (lol), etc.

    The "good" news is that since both the sources of ignition (globalism in all forms) and sources of fuel (aging and debilitating population) are increasing, this Coronacrisis is probably not going to be a one-off event so much as the thin end of an incoming wedge. So even if Trump fumbles this umpteenth chance to enact something worthwhile, the next guy will get another opportunity.

    Of course if the next guy is Biden/Harris, then everything will burn.

    Plan accordingly.

    , @AnotherDad

    Between half and two third of a population need to have the antibodies for there to be no bounceback COVID-19 epidemic and associated deaths after the lockdown is loosened. But there is absolutely no reason to think that any Western country but Sweden will ever get to that ‘herd immunity’ point without a mass vaccination.
     
    Sean, that's roughly my take. It's fairly uncertain exactly where we are, but not hard to venture a decent guess.

    My take is that we could get the reproduction rate below 1, simply by closing the clubs, bars, restaurants, and any sort of mass touchy feely event (which admittedly i have little interest in; my happy spot is more like a day out on the trail, view from pass or peak ... which is why i'm here in Florida) and then masking up for indoor public activities. The virus would spread in households--depending wildly on how good they were at following directions--but wouldn't hop between them much, so would fizzle out.

    But instead of doing the obvious--masks, sanitizer and carry on--we went to this orgy of super-state power and locked everyone and everything down.

    The upside: This lockdown pretty much guaranteed that the reproduction rate would be pushed below 1, at least for "communities" where people comply. Infected people would continue to infect people in their households but not outside. We may be seeing the epidemic peaking. Though i'd guess it won't nicely roll over and crash but will ooze because "population groups" of low compliance.


    But the lockdown has painted us into this corner of feminized "people will die!" shrieking.

    Just lifting measures wholesale would kick the epidemic back up--though with a delay. And there's going to be so much economic uncertainty about that, that it will be basically impossible to get much activity moving again. Tentative--oh now you can do X--can work, but the data is non-existence, the feedback loop to tell if "ok" painfully slow. And the ad hoc tentative nature of it means even more uncertainty and economic wallowing.

    Basically at this point we're stuck waiting around for the Deus ex machina of a vaccine. Or--distinctly 2nd banana--a solid cheap combo preventative therapy and treatment--enough zinc and quercetin supplementation for every American and enough hydroxychloroquine for everyone who gets infected.

    To get things rev'd back up, we need a--we've beaten this!--VC day party.

    For a decent recovery there is no substitute for victory.

  10. I saw someone speculating recently that the most important superspreaders in Lombardy were probably medical and care home staff.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    I wouldn't be surprised if there wasn't a geriatric medicine conference in some picturesque Lombardy city in mid-February 2020 that wound up as the superspreader event.
    , @viennacapitalist
    At the beginning of the outbreak, I read that a hospital in Veneto acted as a superspreader due to the fact that Patient 0 was had been admitted for more than 10 days with the staff suspecting him to have the flu - more than 50 cases could be traced back to that hospital.

    Patient 1 (or 0, not sure) in Vienna, a famous lawyer, was lying in a huspital in Vienna for a few days without anybody thinking about Corona - the entire staff was subsequently tested, without anybody infected - which probably shows how important following basic hygiene protocoll is.

    I am citing from newspaper articles, have not verified.
  11. @Sean
    Between half and two third of a population need to have the antibodies for there to be no bounceback COVID-19 epidemic and associated deaths after the lockdown is loosened. But there is absolutely no reason to think that any Western country but Sweden will ever get to that 'herd immunity' point without a mass vaccination.

    As with so many other things in life you have to bring some to get some. Every country but Sweden is running like their pants are on fire from COVID-19 deaths., thereby prolonging the agony by Flattening The Curve. Maybe also broadening it, for avoiding Dread Risk uproar is what the politician in power in countries other that Sweden are all about, and FTC may end up killing more people in the long run. Sweden is taking it on the chin, while protecting the old folks. It's a strategy that will put them in an enviable economic and immunological situation in a month or so.

    It’s a strategy that will put them in an enviable economic and immunological situation in a month or so.

    Assuming they close their borders to new migrants and asylees, but that’s not who they are.

    • Agree: HammerJack
    • Replies: @Sean
    At least their immigrants are working. In the UK there are a vast number idle and getting welfare that they never contributed to (also true of indigenous self employed).

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/10/europe/sweden-lockdown-turmp-intl/index.html

    "Sweden did that, the herd, they call it the herd"
     

    An Austrian better left unmentioned called Sweden a 'nation on furlough' but it seems the tables have turned. Now the West is being run into the ground by a bunch of aging men acting like old women. Meanwhile, antifragile Sweden powers ahead.

    All the smart money is now going to be heading for Sweden, looking to set up businesses somewhere with the kind of nightlife that is gone in the West. The investment will pour in, and they will be able to set incredibly high standards for immigrants. It is enough to make you weep.

  12. @dearieme
    I saw someone speculating recently that the most important superspreaders in Lombardy were probably medical and care home staff.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if there wasn’t a geriatric medicine conference in some picturesque Lombardy city in mid-February 2020 that wound up as the superspreader event.

  13. @Steve Sailer
    What's Diamond Princess up to: 1.5% IFR for average age of 58?

    I'm perhaps more worried about the potential for 3% long-term debilitation of middle aged people. The mean age of ICU patients in Britain is 60. I'm highly interested in how fully Boris Johnson, 55 and not without his sins but definitely a man of vigor, recovers.

    That is what he watched last night. The aesthetics of failure.

  14. @JRB
    Maybe Vienna is not much infected yet, but these Austrian numbers are not in line with the numbers from Gangelt and also Robbio in Lombardy, where they also did a representative sample. Both found around 10-15% people infected. Not that Robbio is southwest of Milan, not Northeast. Number of deaths is limited in comparison to Bergamo province. My own calculations for the Netherlands say that the number of people who had the disease varies from less then 0.2% in the less affected regions till probably >15% in the most affected regions. For the whole of the country the best estimates say that between 0.3 and 1.2 million have already been sick or still have the disease, that is between 2 and 8% of the population.

    Gangelt is the hardest-hit place in all of Germany. It was selected for study on that basis.

    • Replies: @UK
    This makes the vast difference between the number of confirmed cases and the much larger number with antibodies utterly extraordinary. There should be almost no gap as testing would have been the most intensive in Germany. Instead it is 1:7, and therefore much higher across Germany and therefore ludicrously higher around the world as Germany tests a lot...
  15. I didn’t know there were many shoe store salesmen anymore.

    • Replies: @Lockean Proviso
    It's a competitive job market vying for shoe salesman, but not as much as for gas-pumping station attendant, home milk delivery driver, and travel agent.
  16. @PiltdownMan
    Many counties around the United States are posting test results online. As far as I know, no one has put up a collated database of county level testing results.

    For example, the rural NY county where someone I know is holed up has the numbers, below, as of today.

    I speculate that a random sample from that county would show an even lower incidence of positives, since for the tests performed thus far, there is some reason why the test was performed. Either the patient was reporting suspicious symptoms, or felt unsure and had themselves tested.

    Note that these numbers are from New York State, which has 175,000 cases in all, thus far.


    Total Tested for COVID-19 2290
    Pending 127
    Positive Test Results 112
    Negative Test Results 2051
    Recovered 82
    Deaths 1
    Currently Hospitalized 4

    Here are the results in Humboldt County, in California, similarly remote and rural.

    https://humboldtgov.org/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=2715

    Russell Warne posts the % positive in Utah each day, and they are seldom much above 5% of those tested.

  17. Only marginally O/T, but doing lockdown suicides count as COVID-19 related deaths? This is based on data from 2019, but it does beg that question.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8201091/Suicides-soar-record-levels-England-late-2019.html

  18. Anonymous[412] • Disclaimer says:

    Here are links to couple of news articles that cite or summarize some of the “asymptomatic spreader” studies.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/how-silent-spreaders-are-fueling-the-coronavirus-pandemic/ar-BB11jC87

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/14/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread/index.html

    They seem very weak indeed.

    As one issue (among many), consider the apparent definition of “asymptomatic” individuals used in the “study” of Hubei, as implied in the fifth paragraph of the first article. Other issues: it is not really a study but a mathematical simulation; it is based on Chinese data, gathered indirectly.

    There are also issues with the paper from Germany. The results were from an

    in vitro

    experiment, with the researcher trying to infect healthy cells with swabs!

    Also, consider the epistemic problems associated with classifying people as asymptomatic. It will often depend on self reporting/diagnosis, from memory, by individuals who may have an incentive to downplay or overlook any symptoms they may have had.

  19. @Steve Sailer
    We've made a lot of progress on flattening the curve. We should be thinking hard about easing off the brakes, but in an intelligent fashion: e.g., open beaches and golf courses, followed by tennis courts and garden stores, but not yet Spirit Cycle or minor league opera or movie theaters or dance clubs. Reward companies that invest in R0-lowering capital improvements by moving them up in the queue.

    OR, we could say–

    Our models were wrong. Sorry.

    So…If you’re younger than 60 and not a diabetic/overweight/high blood pressure person, get back to work–because the chances of you dying from this are really, REALLY low. Like, lightening strike low.

    If you’re over 60, or in a high risk group, take measures to isolate yourselves. We have government programs to assist you.

    • Agree: LondonBob
    • Replies: @Maciano
    Is this the latest “its the flu, bro”-escapism?

    I’m adding it to my list. Jfc, you guys are laughable.

    You simply can’t accept life changed.
  20. The good news in Austria is that the government is going to try that route. After Easter small businesses where not a lot of physical proximity is necessary (hardware stores, gardening supplies, book stores, and , yes, shoe stores) will be allowed to reopen. Then hopefully restaurants. Viennese traditionally eat and drink outside anyway from May through September, and it does appear that the virus does not spread that easily outside if people maintain reasonable distances from each other.

    Unless we come up with a vaccine I would imagine any activities where people congregate and drink and get in each other faces – public sporting events, street parties, sports bars, and discos – may be shut down for a long time – or will need much stricter supervision. This is also not great news for public transportation.

  21. @JRB
    Maybe Vienna is not much infected yet, but these Austrian numbers are not in line with the numbers from Gangelt and also Robbio in Lombardy, where they also did a representative sample. Both found around 10-15% people infected. Not that Robbio is southwest of Milan, not Northeast. Number of deaths is limited in comparison to Bergamo province. My own calculations for the Netherlands say that the number of people who had the disease varies from less then 0.2% in the less affected regions till probably >15% in the most affected regions. For the whole of the country the best estimates say that between 0.3 and 1.2 million have already been sick or still have the disease, that is between 2 and 8% of the population.

    The 15 percent in Gangelt are not representative, as the authors of the study keep pointing out in German newspapers. This town is a known hotspot due to some carneval event which everybody in this 3.000 people village attended. Same fror Lombardy

    In Austria the hotspot’s are in the Alpine Regions of Tyrol where certain villages even were completely locked-down for three weeks (nobody allowed to exit or enter the village without explicit permission). There I would assume infection rates are closer to what you have in other hotspots.
    For instance, in Landeck (Tyrol) district with 7.700 inhabitants there have been 930 CONFIRMED cases, i.e. close to 15 percent without taking shadow numbers into account.

    See here for confirmed cases per district in Austria:
    https://www.addendum.org/coronavirus/oesterreich-verbreitung/

    • Replies: @John Andos
    viennacapitalist, can we get your source for the 350 supermarket employees randomly tested tested negative?
    , @Todd Ramsey
    viennacapitalist, do you have a source for the survey that showed no deaths for grocery store workers? I own a retail store and want to reassure my employees that the danger to them is low. No other agenda. Thanks!
  22. First the results of the random study whose results were released yesterday:
    About 0.33 percent of the population infected, or 28,500 people vs. 8,500 confirmed cases at the time (about 10 days ago), (95 percent confidence interval: 10,200 and 67,400). As of today there are slightly more than 300 fatalities which equates to a CFR of around 1 percent – Austrian

    Randomized test like this finds people infected ~2 days before and earlier. Up to perhaps 3? weeks depending on how long the virus is detectable. It doesn’t find those who have already recovered out in the wild. How many are they?

    Look at the research recently posted from Gangelt in Germany… google translated:

    Preliminary result: An existing immunity of approx. 14% (antiSARS-CoV2 IgG positive, specificity of the method>, 99%) was determined. About 2% of the
    Individuals had a current SARS-CoV-2 determined using the PCR method

    https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt_0.pdf

    Would it make sense to calculate IFR number for Gangelt based on PCR test? Does it make sense for Austria?

    Think about it and decide for yourself.

  23. UK says:
    @Steve Sailer
    What's Diamond Princess up to: 1.5% IFR for average age of 58?

    I'm perhaps more worried about the potential for 3% long-term debilitation of middle aged people. The mean age of ICU patients in Britain is 60. I'm highly interested in how fully Boris Johnson, 55 and not without his sins but definitely a man of vigor, recovers.

    That isn’t the IFR for the Diamond Princess. Some will have had it and recovered before being tested. Many false negatives would have been taken. And some refused testing.

    Obviously there also needs to be an age adjustment for any lessons to be drawn from it.

    As for this post, it is deceptively pessimistic. You using the ratio of confirmed cases to randomly found cases is the problem.

    The randomly found cases are those in the particular snapshot part of the disease who test positive in one moment in time. A fraction of those who would have tested positive if this snapshot were taken over the 2 months+ of the disease.

    Meanwhile he confirmed cases were those in that snapshot over lots of different times. The randomly found cases would therefore be missing very many, not just because of recoveries and people not having developed enough yet, but also because it was a one time only thing being compared to a many time thing.

    • Agree: Hail
  24. UK says:
    @LemmusLemmus
    Gangelt is the hardest-hit place in all of Germany. It was selected for study on that basis.

    This makes the vast difference between the number of confirmed cases and the much larger number with antibodies utterly extraordinary. There should be almost no gap as testing would have been the most intensive in Germany. Instead it is 1:7, and therefore much higher across Germany and therefore ludicrously higher around the world as Germany tests a lot…

    • Replies: @LemmusLemmus
    I seem to remember that the previously known cases were 5%, which would mean 1:3. But I don't have a source.
  25. @The Alarmist

    It’s a strategy that will put them in an enviable economic and immunological situation in a month or so.
     
    Assuming they close their borders to new migrants and asylees, but that's not who they are.

    At least their immigrants are working. In the UK there are a vast number idle and getting welfare that they never contributed to (also true of indigenous self employed).

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/10/europe/sweden-lockdown-turmp-intl/index.html

    “Sweden did that, the herd, they call it the herd”

    An Austrian better left unmentioned called Sweden a ‘nation on furlough’ but it seems the tables have turned. Now the West is being run into the ground by a bunch of aging men acting like old women. Meanwhile, antifragile Sweden powers ahead.

    All the smart money is now going to be heading for Sweden, looking to set up businesses somewhere with the kind of nightlife that is gone in the West. The investment will pour in, and they will be able to set incredibly high standards for immigrants. It is enough to make you weep.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad

    The investment will pour in, and they will be able to set incredibly high standards for immigrants. It is enough to make you weep.
     
    Huh?

    Sweden's a nice place, they could always set incredibly high standards for immigrants. (For starters they could stick with a super high standard--zero.) Heck, every Western nation has had that option.

    Sweden has a bunch of garbage immigrants not because those are the only people who would come, but because they have chosen to do that. It's ... who they are.
  26. @dearieme
    I saw someone speculating recently that the most important superspreaders in Lombardy were probably medical and care home staff.

    At the beginning of the outbreak, I read that a hospital in Veneto acted as a superspreader due to the fact that Patient 0 was had been admitted for more than 10 days with the staff suspecting him to have the flu – more than 50 cases could be traced back to that hospital.

    Patient 1 (or 0, not sure) in Vienna, a famous lawyer, was lying in a huspital in Vienna for a few days without anybody thinking about Corona – the entire staff was subsequently tested, without anybody infected – which probably shows how important following basic hygiene protocoll is.

    I am citing from newspaper articles, have not verified.

  27. @Sean
    Between half and two third of a population need to have the antibodies for there to be no bounceback COVID-19 epidemic and associated deaths after the lockdown is loosened. But there is absolutely no reason to think that any Western country but Sweden will ever get to that 'herd immunity' point without a mass vaccination.

    As with so many other things in life you have to bring some to get some. Every country but Sweden is running like their pants are on fire from COVID-19 deaths., thereby prolonging the agony by Flattening The Curve. Maybe also broadening it, for avoiding Dread Risk uproar is what the politician in power in countries other that Sweden are all about, and FTC may end up killing more people in the long run. Sweden is taking it on the chin, while protecting the old folks. It's a strategy that will put them in an enviable economic and immunological situation in a month or so.

    Yeah, there’s a larger meta-problem within which this Coronacrisis is occurring.

    As in the frequently used metaphor of a forest fire, half of the problem is the fire, but half of the problem is the fuel. If you have a NO FIRES EVER policy for your forests, deadwood and underbrush build up among your trees until when the conflagration eventually comes, it’s a doozie.

    Currently, most governments are pursuing a policy of—to preserve the metaphor—keeping as much underbrush as possible. While this would be crazy in forest management, it is understandable pragmatically in democracies as the old and infirm vote at least as much as anyone else. But it means your country will have a permanent hair-trigger sensitivity to any ignitions (viral outbreaks) since it is always carrying a big load of dry tinder (vulnerable people).

    I’m not advocating for a “controlled burn” of the elderly and co-morbid. I’m just observing this situation where powerful governments try to pursue two mutually exclusive objectives: maximum protection of the immunofeeble (Save the underbrush!), and maximum globalization (Bring the fire!).

    We can’t really have both.

    This would be the perfect opportunity for Trump to enact the ¡Borders Si! platform he ran on, but it is abundantly clear by now that he never really meant it, so he won’t bother. I personally would welcome at least measures to sanitize NYC, which is by far the most crowded and filthy city in the US, but that would be a small upside compared to what is possible at this moment: re-shoring industry, controlling all border traffic, employing Americans first, scrutinizing and rejecting all unsuitable visitors, UBI, national hygiene (lol), etc.

    The “good” news is that since both the sources of ignition (globalism in all forms) and sources of fuel (aging and debilitating population) are increasing, this Coronacrisis is probably not going to be a one-off event so much as the thin end of an incoming wedge. So even if Trump fumbles this umpteenth chance to enact something worthwhile, the next guy will get another opportunity.

    Of course if the next guy is Biden/Harris, then everything will burn.

    Plan accordingly.

    • Agree: ic1000
    • Replies: @Sean
    Maximum protection of the 'immunofeeble' while getting only good things from globalisation is very feasible. You just protect them, and only them, from being infected until after the epidemic dies out when between a half to two thirds of the population have antibodies. Then the old folks can come out and not be in substantial danger from an epidemic even though they are not the ones who are immune to COVOD-19. And they are living in what is--imagine it-- suddenly the world's richest and most disease free country. But for such a strategy you need the Prime Minister to be a former welder, rather than physicist or journalist.

    https://www.svtstatic.se/image-cms/svtse/1574252634/play/nyhetsprogrammet-rapport/article24543329.svt/alternates/large/default-title

    , @Hippopotamusdrome


    I’m not advocating for a “controlled burn” of the elderly

     

    So you're advocating immortality for mankind?
    , @HammerJack
    Agree with every word, and would only add that "hygiene" is a dirty word to many as it's associated with national socialism which we're all trained since birth to believe is the worst thing imaginable. It's a miracle we ever managed to cut back on cigarette smoking.
    , @AnotherDad

    This would be the perfect opportunity for Trump to enact the ¡Borders Si! platform he ran on, but it is abundantly clear by now that he never really meant it, so he won’t bother.
     
    Sadly, true. This is where America is at after 50 years of minoritarian propaganda. The sellout Trump is ... actually the best on offer.

    While pathetically shilling for more H-1Bs a couple months ago, Laura Ingram called him out on it and he went into his--really pathetic--Trump whine about businesses needing people.

    Well ... plenty of people are available now!
  28. @Sean
    Between half and two third of a population need to have the antibodies for there to be no bounceback COVID-19 epidemic and associated deaths after the lockdown is loosened. But there is absolutely no reason to think that any Western country but Sweden will ever get to that 'herd immunity' point without a mass vaccination.

    As with so many other things in life you have to bring some to get some. Every country but Sweden is running like their pants are on fire from COVID-19 deaths., thereby prolonging the agony by Flattening The Curve. Maybe also broadening it, for avoiding Dread Risk uproar is what the politician in power in countries other that Sweden are all about, and FTC may end up killing more people in the long run. Sweden is taking it on the chin, while protecting the old folks. It's a strategy that will put them in an enviable economic and immunological situation in a month or so.

    Between half and two third of a population need to have the antibodies for there to be no bounceback COVID-19 epidemic and associated deaths after the lockdown is loosened. But there is absolutely no reason to think that any Western country but Sweden will ever get to that ‘herd immunity’ point without a mass vaccination.

    Sean, that’s roughly my take. It’s fairly uncertain exactly where we are, but not hard to venture a decent guess.

    My take is that we could get the reproduction rate below 1, simply by closing the clubs, bars, restaurants, and any sort of mass touchy feely event (which admittedly i have little interest in; my happy spot is more like a day out on the trail, view from pass or peak … which is why i’m here in Florida) and then masking up for indoor public activities. The virus would spread in households–depending wildly on how good they were at following directions–but wouldn’t hop between them much, so would fizzle out.

    But instead of doing the obvious–masks, sanitizer and carry on–we went to this orgy of super-state power and locked everyone and everything down.

    The upside: This lockdown pretty much guaranteed that the reproduction rate would be pushed below 1, at least for “communities” where people comply. Infected people would continue to infect people in their households but not outside. We may be seeing the epidemic peaking. Though i’d guess it won’t nicely roll over and crash but will ooze because “population groups” of low compliance.

    But the lockdown has painted us into this corner of feminized “people will die!” shrieking.

    Just lifting measures wholesale would kick the epidemic back up–though with a delay. And there’s going to be so much economic uncertainty about that, that it will be basically impossible to get much activity moving again. Tentative–oh now you can do X–can work, but the data is non-existence, the feedback loop to tell if “ok” painfully slow. And the ad hoc tentative nature of it means even more uncertainty and economic wallowing.

    Basically at this point we’re stuck waiting around for the Deus ex machina of a vaccine. Or–distinctly 2nd banana–a solid cheap combo preventative therapy and treatment–enough zinc and quercetin supplementation for every American and enough hydroxychloroquine for everyone who gets infected.

    To get things rev’d back up, we need a–we’ve beaten this!–VC day party.

    For a decent recovery there is no substitute for victory.

    • Agree: Mark G.
    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

    Basically at this point we’re stuck waiting around for the Deus ex machina of a vaccine.
     
    I don't understand the certitude about a vaccine being the path forward.

    Very smart folks have been trying to create a vaccine for coronavirii for years with no success.

    What evidence is there that a vaccine is likely to be a successful tool for managing this particular virus?
    , @Jonathan Mason

    But instead of doing the obvious–masks, sanitizer and carry on–we went to this orgy of super-state power and locked everyone and everything down.
     
    But that is the American way! Rather like the TSA checking every single passenger on an aircraft rather than using a more selective method to identify bad people.

    When I was working for a well-known S&P 500 corporation, I had to open, (supposedly read) and check off over 1500 policies and procedures on a computer, most of which were in no way relevant to my own job. It took about 10 hours of mousework spread over a month to check off these procedures on the computer without even reading a single word of any of the policies and procedures, just clicking and checking, and swearing that you had read them.

    But that is your US culture and legal system for you! Risk management rules and if you have a record of every single employee swearing that they have read 1500 policies and procedures, then you are off the hook when someone gets killed when policy and procedure was not followed.

    , @res

    My take is that we could get the reproduction rate below 1, simply by closing the clubs, bars, restaurants, and any sort of mass touchy feely event ... and then masking up for indoor public activities. The virus would spread in households–depending wildly on how good they were at following directions–but wouldn’t hop between them much, so would fizzle out.
     
    This (and similar variants) is a key question. If students can become infected and contagious enough to spread to their families then I suspect you are wrong. Especially if interscholastic events are not shut down.

    If the fatality rate for those under 40 is as low as estimates we are seeing I would be sorely tempted to try to (voluntarily) infect everyone (without major preexisting conditions) below 40 (or pick a different threshold you prefer) then quarantine them for two weeks and check antibody status to be sure. This assumes we would make an effort to offer them something like...

    a solid cheap combo preventative therapy and treatment–enough zinc and quercetin supplementation for every American and enough hydroxychloroquine for everyone who gets infected.
     
    It would be really great to see some studies along these lines. Say if there is a second wave.
    , @William Badwhite
    AD, where do you live in FL?
  29. @Almost Missouri
    Yeah, there's a larger meta-problem within which this Coronacrisis is occurring.

    As in the frequently used metaphor of a forest fire, half of the problem is the fire, but half of the problem is the fuel. If you have a NO FIRES EVER policy for your forests, deadwood and underbrush build up among your trees until when the conflagration eventually comes, it's a doozie.

    Currently, most governments are pursuing a policy of—to preserve the metaphor—keeping as much underbrush as possible. While this would be crazy in forest management, it is understandable pragmatically in democracies as the old and infirm vote at least as much as anyone else. But it means your country will have a permanent hair-trigger sensitivity to any ignitions (viral outbreaks) since it is always carrying a big load of dry tinder (vulnerable people).

    I'm not advocating for a "controlled burn" of the elderly and co-morbid. I'm just observing this situation where powerful governments try to pursue two mutually exclusive objectives: maximum protection of the immunofeeble (Save the underbrush!), and maximum globalization (Bring the fire!).

    We can't really have both.

    This would be the perfect opportunity for Trump to enact the ¡Borders Si! platform he ran on, but it is abundantly clear by now that he never really meant it, so he won't bother. I personally would welcome at least measures to sanitize NYC, which is by far the most crowded and filthy city in the US, but that would be a small upside compared to what is possible at this moment: re-shoring industry, controlling all border traffic, employing Americans first, scrutinizing and rejecting all unsuitable visitors, UBI, national hygiene (lol), etc.

    The "good" news is that since both the sources of ignition (globalism in all forms) and sources of fuel (aging and debilitating population) are increasing, this Coronacrisis is probably not going to be a one-off event so much as the thin end of an incoming wedge. So even if Trump fumbles this umpteenth chance to enact something worthwhile, the next guy will get another opportunity.

    Of course if the next guy is Biden/Harris, then everything will burn.

    Plan accordingly.

    Maximum protection of the ‘immunofeeble’ while getting only good things from globalisation is very feasible. You just protect them, and only them, from being infected until after the epidemic dies out when between a half to two thirds of the population have antibodies. Then the old folks can come out and not be in substantial danger from an epidemic even though they are not the ones who are immune to COVOD-19. And they are living in what is–imagine it– suddenly the world’s richest and most disease free country. But for such a strategy you need the Prime Minister to be a former welder, rather than physicist or journalist.

    https://www.svtstatic.se/image-cms/svtse/1574252634/play/nyhetsprogrammet-rapport/article24543329.svt/alternates/large/default-title

    • Replies: @Fredrik
    Since this is my home country I have a vested interest in this going well even if the politicans in charge are morons(not because they're former welders). The PM himself is a former union boss who is generally seen as stupid but as I like to remind people he's still in office even with no majority behind him. He outwits the smart urban professionals. Some of his underlings though or maybe most of them..

    There are signs this strategy isn't going so well since the number of dead is rather high compared to other countries(not like Italy but compared to our neighbours or even the US). The question is if this is because we've gone further on the path to herd immunity than others or if this strategy is flawed.

    On the other hand companies have sent home office workers weeks ago and it's not like Swedes don't do social distancing even at normal times. We don't have any ultraorthodox Jews either(most Swedes wouldn't recognize what hassidic or haredi means and it's not due to any language barrier). If we're lucky there are a bunch of Somali and Assyrians dying just like it has been so far. If we're unlucky we'll be in lockdown during summer.

  30. All this hyper analysis is starting to remind me of deck chair reshuffling.

    Millions of people are out of work, millions of people cannot or will not gather in public places. Millions of people scurry around in fear of something that has taken on a superstitious quality. The local governments have seized on this opportunity to assume more power for themselves, and have found the perfect way to keep people isolated in their homes consuming useless media and material. Per my wife, that deranged and grotesque place known as social media has turned into a Thunderdome-esque arena of vile and hate filled virtue signalling, as people bludgeon each other for daring not hide out in their homes like rats in a hole. The precedent has been set: This pathogen lock down stuff will become the new norm; expect a lock down to occur every few years or every year even.

    Millions of students are being denied the traditions and occasions all of us were entitled to, (Spring time extracurriculars – sports, theater, and competitive academics – dances, proms, graduations, etc) especially the seniors in high school and college, as they see those coming of age events cancelled out of a panic, and they end those milestones of normal young life with a sense of disappointment that I can’t really imagine. Those things have been stolen from our young people so that what, exactly? It wouldn’t surprise me to find that the class of 2020 turns out to be one of the most cynical cohorts of any generation in the years ahead.

    Is it all worth it? Not even close.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    "Those things have been stolen from our young people so that what, exactly? It wouldn’t surprise me to find that the class of 2020 turns out to be one of the most cynical cohorts of any generation in the years ahead."

    Hadn't thought about that, but it's obviously true. If they find out the truth. As the expression goes, truth is treason in an empire of lies. You sound like a traitor to me.
    , @vhrm

    This pathogen lock down stuff will become the new norm; expect a lock down to occur every few years or every year even.
     
    I'm really hoping that it has the opposite effect, and people are left with a "OMG, what did we do?!" feeling.

    However, right now it really seems that a lot of people are really still largely buying the government line. Among my friends and acquaintances the outrage-at-shutdown is still a small minority. Same on web and Twitter (though really i'm not an expert there).

    I'm hoping that a movement develops to curb some of these emergency powers. Maybe in the redder states at least.
  31. @Bitfu
    Risk and Reward.

    Instead of applying Risk/Reward analysis to re-opening the economy--why don't we begin applying it to 'Flatten the Curve'?

    Thus far, we've blindly pursued a 'Flatten The Curve At All Costs, No Matter What Because No Other Deaths Matter Besides COVID-19' strategy.

    Maybe there are worse things than COVID. Maybe 'Stop COVID At All Costs'--actually costs too much.

    Of course, accepting this new reality means more deaths from COVID--and this is truly a sad thing. But, it also would mean less deaths from suicide, despair, societal-breakdown, crime, hunger, all the other maladies and illnesses which currently are being ignored--'because COVID, stupid'...among so many others.

    Now, what I just wrote may seem callous with respect to COVID sufferers. I don't mean it that way. I just don't think we can snuff out COVID without incurring even worse outcomes in doing so.

    And on that subject of being callous---I'm starting to get the impression that the COVID-Flat-Curvers don't really give a flying f*ck about the suffering being imposed from treating COVID like it's The Black Plague. So, maybe it's the COVID-Flat-Curvers who are actually being callous here.

    What’s happening here is that we are a people who have been denied a grand purpose. I believe human beings fundamentally desire some kind of “at all costs” problem to contend with.

    We have organized our society entirely around maximizing shareholder value. For members of capital, this obviously works very well as a grand “at all costs” purpose. But for most people, its hollow.

    Now there is something to care about again, and people are jumping at the chance.

    So, again, complain about it, or, use it to advantage.

    “At all costs” Okay… The cost of destroying COVID-19 is we restructure society around kids, families, local living, etc, etc. No more immigration, no more jet-set, no more chinese made garbage. Also, you have to shut up about systemic racism. Let’s go.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    Now there is something to care about again, and people are jumping at the chance.
     
    What is that something?
  32. @AnotherDad

    Between half and two third of a population need to have the antibodies for there to be no bounceback COVID-19 epidemic and associated deaths after the lockdown is loosened. But there is absolutely no reason to think that any Western country but Sweden will ever get to that ‘herd immunity’ point without a mass vaccination.
     
    Sean, that's roughly my take. It's fairly uncertain exactly where we are, but not hard to venture a decent guess.

    My take is that we could get the reproduction rate below 1, simply by closing the clubs, bars, restaurants, and any sort of mass touchy feely event (which admittedly i have little interest in; my happy spot is more like a day out on the trail, view from pass or peak ... which is why i'm here in Florida) and then masking up for indoor public activities. The virus would spread in households--depending wildly on how good they were at following directions--but wouldn't hop between them much, so would fizzle out.

    But instead of doing the obvious--masks, sanitizer and carry on--we went to this orgy of super-state power and locked everyone and everything down.

    The upside: This lockdown pretty much guaranteed that the reproduction rate would be pushed below 1, at least for "communities" where people comply. Infected people would continue to infect people in their households but not outside. We may be seeing the epidemic peaking. Though i'd guess it won't nicely roll over and crash but will ooze because "population groups" of low compliance.


    But the lockdown has painted us into this corner of feminized "people will die!" shrieking.

    Just lifting measures wholesale would kick the epidemic back up--though with a delay. And there's going to be so much economic uncertainty about that, that it will be basically impossible to get much activity moving again. Tentative--oh now you can do X--can work, but the data is non-existence, the feedback loop to tell if "ok" painfully slow. And the ad hoc tentative nature of it means even more uncertainty and economic wallowing.

    Basically at this point we're stuck waiting around for the Deus ex machina of a vaccine. Or--distinctly 2nd banana--a solid cheap combo preventative therapy and treatment--enough zinc and quercetin supplementation for every American and enough hydroxychloroquine for everyone who gets infected.

    To get things rev'd back up, we need a--we've beaten this!--VC day party.

    For a decent recovery there is no substitute for victory.

    Basically at this point we’re stuck waiting around for the Deus ex machina of a vaccine.

    I don’t understand the certitude about a vaccine being the path forward.

    Very smart folks have been trying to create a vaccine for coronavirii for years with no success.

    What evidence is there that a vaccine is likely to be a successful tool for managing this particular virus?

  33. So apparently the various modelers and pushers of this freak-out are going to act like they were fighting an epic enermy.

    Waiting for the Great Pumpkin to arrive with 5 million caskets? And another 10 million for Latin America? Ah, the glory of the technocrats!

  34. @Steve Sailer
    What's Diamond Princess up to: 1.5% IFR for average age of 58?

    I'm perhaps more worried about the potential for 3% long-term debilitation of middle aged people. The mean age of ICU patients in Britain is 60. I'm highly interested in how fully Boris Johnson, 55 and not without his sins but definitely a man of vigor, recovers.

    I’m highly interested in how fully Boris Johnson, 55 and not without his sins but definitely a man of vigor, recovers.

    Boris Johnson isn’t just “not without his sins”. He is an embarrassment. And i’m not just talking about his globalist, immigration loving treason against the British people. His behavior and his resulting disgusting physique are an abuse of the body/life he was given. I think he slimmed down a bit to run for PM, but you could still cut Boris open and pull out layer upon layer of lard enough to supply cooking oil to a small Bangladeshi village for a year–with leftover for candles.

    Not being pompous. I’m not without sin myself. I could afford to lose some weight. (Just went to the scale–158. I’ve got 8-10 lbs of belly blubber that should not be there. One family’s yearly oil supply.) But i’m actually capable of pushing back from the table. And–as difficult as it is–pulling myself from iSteve to go beach with AnotherMom or swim in the pool.

    I’ve never seen any American held down while people cram donuts into their mouths. No American is prevented from just getting their ass up off the couch and walking around for an hour instead of watching TV. (Well at least not until a month ago!) Yet a lot of folks look like they have just been paroled from the feedlot. A whole new species–“Land Whale Americanus”.

    The bottom line: millions of Americans have *chosen* to do this to themselves–make themselves prime corona-chan targets, by abusing themselves with drugs or smoking or sheer gluttony.

    Corona chan is killing a few folks who’ve just had bad luck– bad roll of the genetic dice, happened to get a megadose from a super-spreader. But beyond the “near end of their lives” elderly, most of the victims of this thing who are losing significant years of life have made poor choices that have made them a victim.

    Maybe i’m just a crappy human being. But though Catholic, i was raised with the standard American Protestant work ethic view–if you want something in life get your ass outta bed and work for it. The corollary: you do the crime, you do the time. People own the choices they make, including abusing their bodies. Now the Chinese have sent a collection agent.

    • Agree: Muggles, epebble
    • Replies: @Anonymous

    And–as difficult as it is–pulling myself from iSteve
     
    This is the hardest thing.
    , @jim jones
    Boris is the main reason that the Norf went Tory:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctd0S2BVpDo
    , @HammerJack
    Unfortunately, the Chinese are collecting from all of us, in one form or another. This is costing trillions, and I can see no reason why we should allow it.
  35. Anonymous[412] • Disclaimer says:
    @AnotherDad

    I’m highly interested in how fully Boris Johnson, 55 and not without his sins but definitely a man of vigor, recovers.
     
    Boris Johnson isn't just "not without his sins". He is an embarrassment. And i'm not just talking about his globalist, immigration loving treason against the British people. His behavior and his resulting disgusting physique are an abuse of the body/life he was given. I think he slimmed down a bit to run for PM, but you could still cut Boris open and pull out layer upon layer of lard enough to supply cooking oil to a small Bangladeshi village for a year--with leftover for candles.

    Not being pompous. I'm not without sin myself. I could afford to lose some weight. (Just went to the scale--158. I've got 8-10 lbs of belly blubber that should not be there. One family's yearly oil supply.) But i'm actually capable of pushing back from the table. And--as difficult as it is--pulling myself from iSteve to go beach with AnotherMom or swim in the pool.

    I've never seen any American held down while people cram donuts into their mouths. No American is prevented from just getting their ass up off the couch and walking around for an hour instead of watching TV. (Well at least not until a month ago!) Yet a lot of folks look like they have just been paroled from the feedlot. A whole new species--"Land Whale Americanus".

    The bottom line: millions of Americans have *chosen* to do this to themselves--make themselves prime corona-chan targets, by abusing themselves with drugs or smoking or sheer gluttony.

    Corona chan is killing a few folks who've just had bad luck-- bad roll of the genetic dice, happened to get a megadose from a super-spreader. But beyond the "near end of their lives" elderly, most of the victims of this thing who are losing significant years of life have made poor choices that have made them a victim.

    Maybe i'm just a crappy human being. But though Catholic, i was raised with the standard American Protestant work ethic view--if you want something in life get your ass outta bed and work for it. The corollary: you do the crime, you do the time. People own the choices they make, including abusing their bodies. Now the Chinese have sent a collection agent.

    And–as difficult as it is–pulling myself from iSteve

    This is the hardest thing.

  36. @AnotherDad

    I’m highly interested in how fully Boris Johnson, 55 and not without his sins but definitely a man of vigor, recovers.
     
    Boris Johnson isn't just "not without his sins". He is an embarrassment. And i'm not just talking about his globalist, immigration loving treason against the British people. His behavior and his resulting disgusting physique are an abuse of the body/life he was given. I think he slimmed down a bit to run for PM, but you could still cut Boris open and pull out layer upon layer of lard enough to supply cooking oil to a small Bangladeshi village for a year--with leftover for candles.

    Not being pompous. I'm not without sin myself. I could afford to lose some weight. (Just went to the scale--158. I've got 8-10 lbs of belly blubber that should not be there. One family's yearly oil supply.) But i'm actually capable of pushing back from the table. And--as difficult as it is--pulling myself from iSteve to go beach with AnotherMom or swim in the pool.

    I've never seen any American held down while people cram donuts into their mouths. No American is prevented from just getting their ass up off the couch and walking around for an hour instead of watching TV. (Well at least not until a month ago!) Yet a lot of folks look like they have just been paroled from the feedlot. A whole new species--"Land Whale Americanus".

    The bottom line: millions of Americans have *chosen* to do this to themselves--make themselves prime corona-chan targets, by abusing themselves with drugs or smoking or sheer gluttony.

    Corona chan is killing a few folks who've just had bad luck-- bad roll of the genetic dice, happened to get a megadose from a super-spreader. But beyond the "near end of their lives" elderly, most of the victims of this thing who are losing significant years of life have made poor choices that have made them a victim.

    Maybe i'm just a crappy human being. But though Catholic, i was raised with the standard American Protestant work ethic view--if you want something in life get your ass outta bed and work for it. The corollary: you do the crime, you do the time. People own the choices they make, including abusing their bodies. Now the Chinese have sent a collection agent.

    Boris is the main reason that the Norf went Tory:

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    Fury at the lefty establishment is what turned the North to voting Tory.

    All of the ten doctors to have died from coronavirus are ethnic minorities. Can't be a statistical anomaly at that rate, so why?

    Dormant TB, lack of a BCG vaccine, hypertension, genes...
  37. @Bitfu
    Risk and Reward.

    Instead of applying Risk/Reward analysis to re-opening the economy--why don't we begin applying it to 'Flatten the Curve'?

    Thus far, we've blindly pursued a 'Flatten The Curve At All Costs, No Matter What Because No Other Deaths Matter Besides COVID-19' strategy.

    Maybe there are worse things than COVID. Maybe 'Stop COVID At All Costs'--actually costs too much.

    Of course, accepting this new reality means more deaths from COVID--and this is truly a sad thing. But, it also would mean less deaths from suicide, despair, societal-breakdown, crime, hunger, all the other maladies and illnesses which currently are being ignored--'because COVID, stupid'...among so many others.

    Now, what I just wrote may seem callous with respect to COVID sufferers. I don't mean it that way. I just don't think we can snuff out COVID without incurring even worse outcomes in doing so.

    And on that subject of being callous---I'm starting to get the impression that the COVID-Flat-Curvers don't really give a flying f*ck about the suffering being imposed from treating COVID like it's The Black Plague. So, maybe it's the COVID-Flat-Curvers who are actually being callous here.

    And on that subject of being callous—I’m starting to get the impression that the COVID-Flat-Curvers don’t really give a flying f*ck about the suffering being imposed from treating COVID like it’s The Black Plague. So, maybe it’s the COVID-Flat-Curvers who are actually being callous here.

    Yes, the spectacle of aging boomers wagging thier fingers at everyone about how selfish they are being for just living their life is becoming disgusting. Denying millions of other people formative live experiences that older generations took for granted – that isn’t selfish? Denying other people medical care that doesn’t pertain to COVID-19 (including cancer-screening diagnostic procedures) – that isn’t selfish? Casually throwing away civil liberties – that isn’t selfish? Throwing millions of people out of work – that isn’t selfish? Crushing tens of thousands of small businesses – that isn’t selfish?

    The Hong Kong Flu struck America in 1968-1969. It killed an estimated 100,000 Americans, 1 million worldwide (most in that first year, with additional cases out to1972). You may not have heard of it; it barely rates a mention in most capsule histories of the time, what with Vietnam, Apollo 8, etc. It was perhaps not quite so bad a pandemic as the Asian Flu of 1957, which killed a similar number of people. The public health officials at the time – who were closer in time (and perhaps even memory and experience) to the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic didn’t freakout like ours today have.

    Imagine if we had done then what we’re doing now? Think of what those self-same boomers would have said if told to stay indoors, stay away from everybody. How would they have reacted if they had been told: what are you complaining about man? – you didn’t have to fight WWII – you just have to stay home. Watch Greenacres and Gunsmoke. No Woodstock for you- you need to social-distance.

    • Agree: RichardTaylor
    • Replies: @res

    The public health officials at the time – who were closer in time (and perhaps even memory and experience) to the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic didn’t freakout like ours today have.
     
    Also worth mentioning that flu years 2x that of 1957/1968 were routine in the 1930s. See graph in my earlier comment.

    P.S. You might also ponder how something like these shutdowns would have worked in combination with "Don't trust anyone under 30."
    , @Hail
    Great comment, Mr. Anon.

    The Hong Kong Flu struck America in 1968-1969
     
    I've tried to make the same point in comments here. Ask around, no one who "lived through it" even remembers the 1968-69 flu pandemic.

    The funny thing about that mass-non-remembrance is the 1968-69 flu pandemic was worse than the coronavirus is / will be. (And even one wants to push the upper-bound, 1968-69 and 2020 are still comparable.)

    The 1968-69 flu death toll in the US (for all influenza-attributed deaths; they didn't have specific flu-virus tests for all patients) would be 165,000, if adjusted for 2020 population, the large majority associated with the peak two months when the Hong Kong pandemic strain first hit the US.

    165,000 is an upward-adjustment for population as of 2020; we'd have to raise it again to adjust for higher average age in 2020. Maybe the true comparison number is 250,000 deaths in 2020 if the same magnitude as the 1968-69 pandemic. This would be 0.075% of population total. If the experts are right and the 2020 coronavirus that has been so hyped up takes the now-predicted 0.01% to 0.05% of total population (the genuinely attributable deaths, not the fluffed-up counts of car-accident deaths magic-wanded into Corona Deaths), it will be milder than 1968, possibly much milder.


    And no one remembers [the 1968 pandemic]. It came and went, immediately forgotten except by specialists. Life goes on.
     
  38. First the results of the random study whose results were released yesterday:
    About 0.33 percent of the population infected, or 28,500 people vs. 8,500 confirmed cases at the time (about 10 days ago), (95 percent confidence interval: 10,200 and 67,400). As of today there are slightly more than 300 fatalities which equates to a CFR of around 1 percent – Austrian hospitals are not overwhelmed with capacity similar to Germany.

    One week ago, the results of another random study was published that focused on professions at risk: Result: 0.5 percent of health care workers were infected but, interestingly, out of 350 tested supermarket employees NONE were infected, suggesting the virus might be less contagious under certain circumstances than generally assumed.

    0.33 percent of 350 is about 1 person, so those super-market results don’t mean much.

    However, if it is true that supermarket employees are less likely to be infected, that says a lot about workplace infection. They work in a closed climate-controlled environment, nut much natural touching stuff a whole bunch of other people have touched (in the case of the checkout clerks).

  39. @AnotherDad

    Between half and two third of a population need to have the antibodies for there to be no bounceback COVID-19 epidemic and associated deaths after the lockdown is loosened. But there is absolutely no reason to think that any Western country but Sweden will ever get to that ‘herd immunity’ point without a mass vaccination.
     
    Sean, that's roughly my take. It's fairly uncertain exactly where we are, but not hard to venture a decent guess.

    My take is that we could get the reproduction rate below 1, simply by closing the clubs, bars, restaurants, and any sort of mass touchy feely event (which admittedly i have little interest in; my happy spot is more like a day out on the trail, view from pass or peak ... which is why i'm here in Florida) and then masking up for indoor public activities. The virus would spread in households--depending wildly on how good they were at following directions--but wouldn't hop between them much, so would fizzle out.

    But instead of doing the obvious--masks, sanitizer and carry on--we went to this orgy of super-state power and locked everyone and everything down.

    The upside: This lockdown pretty much guaranteed that the reproduction rate would be pushed below 1, at least for "communities" where people comply. Infected people would continue to infect people in their households but not outside. We may be seeing the epidemic peaking. Though i'd guess it won't nicely roll over and crash but will ooze because "population groups" of low compliance.


    But the lockdown has painted us into this corner of feminized "people will die!" shrieking.

    Just lifting measures wholesale would kick the epidemic back up--though with a delay. And there's going to be so much economic uncertainty about that, that it will be basically impossible to get much activity moving again. Tentative--oh now you can do X--can work, but the data is non-existence, the feedback loop to tell if "ok" painfully slow. And the ad hoc tentative nature of it means even more uncertainty and economic wallowing.

    Basically at this point we're stuck waiting around for the Deus ex machina of a vaccine. Or--distinctly 2nd banana--a solid cheap combo preventative therapy and treatment--enough zinc and quercetin supplementation for every American and enough hydroxychloroquine for everyone who gets infected.

    To get things rev'd back up, we need a--we've beaten this!--VC day party.

    For a decent recovery there is no substitute for victory.

    But instead of doing the obvious–masks, sanitizer and carry on–we went to this orgy of super-state power and locked everyone and everything down.

    But that is the American way! Rather like the TSA checking every single passenger on an aircraft rather than using a more selective method to identify bad people.

    When I was working for a well-known S&P 500 corporation, I had to open, (supposedly read) and check off over 1500 policies and procedures on a computer, most of which were in no way relevant to my own job. It took about 10 hours of mousework spread over a month to check off these procedures on the computer without even reading a single word of any of the policies and procedures, just clicking and checking, and swearing that you had read them.

    But that is your US culture and legal system for you! Risk management rules and if you have a record of every single employee swearing that they have read 1500 policies and procedures, then you are off the hook when someone gets killed when policy and procedure was not followed.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    Exactly. Safety means "no possibility of lawsuits." Actual safety requires, time, attention, and caring about the needs of employees. Good luck with that policy in Bureaucratistan.
  40. @Triumph104

    ...interestingly, out of 350 tested supermarket employees NONE were infected, suggesting the virus might be less contagious under certain circumstances than generally assumed.
     
    Two black middle-age men who worked at the same Chicago-area Walmart store in Evergreen Park, Illinois died from Covid-19. When the family of one of the victims, a 15-year Walmart employee - overnight stocker and maintenance associate, had their request for burial assistance ignored by Walmart's employee emergency relief fund and they received calls from other employees about the poor working conditions and other workers with symptoms, they decided to file a wrongful death lawsuit which immediately got Walmart's attention.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/06/coronavirus-walmart-employees-family-files-wrongful-death-lawsuit.html

    Two black middle-age men who worked at the same Chicago-area Walmart

    Evans, 51, of Chicago, died March 25 due to complications of COVID-19 with morbid obesity a contributing factor

    We really should start a charity fund to discover a cure for “complications”.

    • Troll: guest007
    • Replies: @Triumph104
    Obese people and people with Type 2 diabetes are malnourished. They need mega doses of vitamin D3 along with other vitamins and minerals, not just one as doctors are doing with just zinc or just vitamin C. This will prevent them from dying from Covid-19. Supplementation can clear up deficiencies in days - a diet cannot.

    The body also needs to be alkanized by drinking large amounts water mixed with baking soda or lemon juice on an empty stomach.
    , @Mr. Anon
    In addition to obesity and smoking, a common co-morbidity for COVID-19 appears to be male homosexuality.
  41. I do agree about occupational hazard and prolonged exposure.

    My friend was conscientiously wearing masks and gloves and gowns long before corona virus came along, and now he is in intensive care with corona virus.

    But he is a fricking DENTIST who spends his whole life getting his face into other people’s faces, sticking his fingers deep into other people mouths and drilling and spraying all day long.

    I would not be surprised if dentists have a higher than average rate of corona virus infection.

    • Replies: @epebble
    Does he have any comorbidity?
  42. @Almost Missouri
    Yeah, there's a larger meta-problem within which this Coronacrisis is occurring.

    As in the frequently used metaphor of a forest fire, half of the problem is the fire, but half of the problem is the fuel. If you have a NO FIRES EVER policy for your forests, deadwood and underbrush build up among your trees until when the conflagration eventually comes, it's a doozie.

    Currently, most governments are pursuing a policy of—to preserve the metaphor—keeping as much underbrush as possible. While this would be crazy in forest management, it is understandable pragmatically in democracies as the old and infirm vote at least as much as anyone else. But it means your country will have a permanent hair-trigger sensitivity to any ignitions (viral outbreaks) since it is always carrying a big load of dry tinder (vulnerable people).

    I'm not advocating for a "controlled burn" of the elderly and co-morbid. I'm just observing this situation where powerful governments try to pursue two mutually exclusive objectives: maximum protection of the immunofeeble (Save the underbrush!), and maximum globalization (Bring the fire!).

    We can't really have both.

    This would be the perfect opportunity for Trump to enact the ¡Borders Si! platform he ran on, but it is abundantly clear by now that he never really meant it, so he won't bother. I personally would welcome at least measures to sanitize NYC, which is by far the most crowded and filthy city in the US, but that would be a small upside compared to what is possible at this moment: re-shoring industry, controlling all border traffic, employing Americans first, scrutinizing and rejecting all unsuitable visitors, UBI, national hygiene (lol), etc.

    The "good" news is that since both the sources of ignition (globalism in all forms) and sources of fuel (aging and debilitating population) are increasing, this Coronacrisis is probably not going to be a one-off event so much as the thin end of an incoming wedge. So even if Trump fumbles this umpteenth chance to enact something worthwhile, the next guy will get another opportunity.

    Of course if the next guy is Biden/Harris, then everything will burn.

    Plan accordingly.

    I’m not advocating for a “controlled burn” of the elderly

    So you’re advocating immortality for mankind?

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    I'm advocating for the platform Trump ran on.

    For everything else ...

    https://youtu.be/K3kKqfTjsj0?t=27
  43. @Almost Missouri
    Yeah, there's a larger meta-problem within which this Coronacrisis is occurring.

    As in the frequently used metaphor of a forest fire, half of the problem is the fire, but half of the problem is the fuel. If you have a NO FIRES EVER policy for your forests, deadwood and underbrush build up among your trees until when the conflagration eventually comes, it's a doozie.

    Currently, most governments are pursuing a policy of—to preserve the metaphor—keeping as much underbrush as possible. While this would be crazy in forest management, it is understandable pragmatically in democracies as the old and infirm vote at least as much as anyone else. But it means your country will have a permanent hair-trigger sensitivity to any ignitions (viral outbreaks) since it is always carrying a big load of dry tinder (vulnerable people).

    I'm not advocating for a "controlled burn" of the elderly and co-morbid. I'm just observing this situation where powerful governments try to pursue two mutually exclusive objectives: maximum protection of the immunofeeble (Save the underbrush!), and maximum globalization (Bring the fire!).

    We can't really have both.

    This would be the perfect opportunity for Trump to enact the ¡Borders Si! platform he ran on, but it is abundantly clear by now that he never really meant it, so he won't bother. I personally would welcome at least measures to sanitize NYC, which is by far the most crowded and filthy city in the US, but that would be a small upside compared to what is possible at this moment: re-shoring industry, controlling all border traffic, employing Americans first, scrutinizing and rejecting all unsuitable visitors, UBI, national hygiene (lol), etc.

    The "good" news is that since both the sources of ignition (globalism in all forms) and sources of fuel (aging and debilitating population) are increasing, this Coronacrisis is probably not going to be a one-off event so much as the thin end of an incoming wedge. So even if Trump fumbles this umpteenth chance to enact something worthwhile, the next guy will get another opportunity.

    Of course if the next guy is Biden/Harris, then everything will burn.

    Plan accordingly.

    Agree with every word, and would only add that “hygiene” is a dirty word to many as it’s associated with national socialism which we’re all trained since birth to believe is the worst thing imaginable. It’s a miracle we ever managed to cut back on cigarette smoking.

  44. @Almost Missouri
    Yeah, there's a larger meta-problem within which this Coronacrisis is occurring.

    As in the frequently used metaphor of a forest fire, half of the problem is the fire, but half of the problem is the fuel. If you have a NO FIRES EVER policy for your forests, deadwood and underbrush build up among your trees until when the conflagration eventually comes, it's a doozie.

    Currently, most governments are pursuing a policy of—to preserve the metaphor—keeping as much underbrush as possible. While this would be crazy in forest management, it is understandable pragmatically in democracies as the old and infirm vote at least as much as anyone else. But it means your country will have a permanent hair-trigger sensitivity to any ignitions (viral outbreaks) since it is always carrying a big load of dry tinder (vulnerable people).

    I'm not advocating for a "controlled burn" of the elderly and co-morbid. I'm just observing this situation where powerful governments try to pursue two mutually exclusive objectives: maximum protection of the immunofeeble (Save the underbrush!), and maximum globalization (Bring the fire!).

    We can't really have both.

    This would be the perfect opportunity for Trump to enact the ¡Borders Si! platform he ran on, but it is abundantly clear by now that he never really meant it, so he won't bother. I personally would welcome at least measures to sanitize NYC, which is by far the most crowded and filthy city in the US, but that would be a small upside compared to what is possible at this moment: re-shoring industry, controlling all border traffic, employing Americans first, scrutinizing and rejecting all unsuitable visitors, UBI, national hygiene (lol), etc.

    The "good" news is that since both the sources of ignition (globalism in all forms) and sources of fuel (aging and debilitating population) are increasing, this Coronacrisis is probably not going to be a one-off event so much as the thin end of an incoming wedge. So even if Trump fumbles this umpteenth chance to enact something worthwhile, the next guy will get another opportunity.

    Of course if the next guy is Biden/Harris, then everything will burn.

    Plan accordingly.

    This would be the perfect opportunity for Trump to enact the ¡Borders Si! platform he ran on, but it is abundantly clear by now that he never really meant it, so he won’t bother.

    Sadly, true. This is where America is at after 50 years of minoritarian propaganda. The sellout Trump is … actually the best on offer.

    While pathetically shilling for more H-1Bs a couple months ago, Laura Ingram called him out on it and he went into his–really pathetic–Trump whine about businesses needing people.

    Well … plenty of people are available now!

  45. @AnotherDad

    I’m highly interested in how fully Boris Johnson, 55 and not without his sins but definitely a man of vigor, recovers.
     
    Boris Johnson isn't just "not without his sins". He is an embarrassment. And i'm not just talking about his globalist, immigration loving treason against the British people. His behavior and his resulting disgusting physique are an abuse of the body/life he was given. I think he slimmed down a bit to run for PM, but you could still cut Boris open and pull out layer upon layer of lard enough to supply cooking oil to a small Bangladeshi village for a year--with leftover for candles.

    Not being pompous. I'm not without sin myself. I could afford to lose some weight. (Just went to the scale--158. I've got 8-10 lbs of belly blubber that should not be there. One family's yearly oil supply.) But i'm actually capable of pushing back from the table. And--as difficult as it is--pulling myself from iSteve to go beach with AnotherMom or swim in the pool.

    I've never seen any American held down while people cram donuts into their mouths. No American is prevented from just getting their ass up off the couch and walking around for an hour instead of watching TV. (Well at least not until a month ago!) Yet a lot of folks look like they have just been paroled from the feedlot. A whole new species--"Land Whale Americanus".

    The bottom line: millions of Americans have *chosen* to do this to themselves--make themselves prime corona-chan targets, by abusing themselves with drugs or smoking or sheer gluttony.

    Corona chan is killing a few folks who've just had bad luck-- bad roll of the genetic dice, happened to get a megadose from a super-spreader. But beyond the "near end of their lives" elderly, most of the victims of this thing who are losing significant years of life have made poor choices that have made them a victim.

    Maybe i'm just a crappy human being. But though Catholic, i was raised with the standard American Protestant work ethic view--if you want something in life get your ass outta bed and work for it. The corollary: you do the crime, you do the time. People own the choices they make, including abusing their bodies. Now the Chinese have sent a collection agent.

    Unfortunately, the Chinese are collecting from all of us, in one form or another. This is costing trillions, and I can see no reason why we should allow it.

  46. • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    An utterly useless graphic. It compares one-time events (like 911) with weekly death-rates. Anyways, the numbers of COVID-19 caused deaths are bogus.
  47. @Steve Sailer
    We've made a lot of progress on flattening the curve. We should be thinking hard about easing off the brakes, but in an intelligent fashion: e.g., open beaches and golf courses, followed by tennis courts and garden stores, but not yet Spirit Cycle or minor league opera or movie theaters or dance clubs. Reward companies that invest in R0-lowering capital improvements by moving them up in the queue.

    WE should be thinking hard about easing off the brakes …

    Like the old joke goes: “What do you mean ‘WE’, white man?” We don’t get to decide shit.

    We had no say in closing down businesses or ordering people to stay in their houses. To your delight, governors and mayors assumed arbitrary power to “flatten the curve.” They decide when or if this ends.

    “We” won’t be consulted

    • Agree: Almost Missouri
  48. I enjoying reading iSteve’s blog posts and one reason is the mainly intelligent comments made here.

    However as many are Type A analyticals (nearly all male) with good post grad educations (many) there is a rush to judgment and a seeming desperate desire for instant and complete conclusions.

    Understandable and many Americans think the same. Also, most posters here are older than 40 and probably a plurality are older than 60 (Boomers, now mocked widely). So we have a personal stake.

    But let’s face it. Small studies and samples of all sorts of data bits aren’t going to provide what we desire. Every week more information is gathered which alters prior assumptions. Who knew of “superspreaders” two weeks ago? And the confounding issue of co-morbidity can’t just be assumed away when looking at death rates. Since this affects the already vulnerable and unhealthy, you can’t just blame the last straw for breaking the metaphorical camel’s back. Difficult to overlook.

    Also, too little is known about the actual vectors and chemistry of these infections. Now we know it is also a cardiac matter (often). Not merely lung problem, like most flu.

    Conclusion? One is, drastic and unprecedented measures taken in the face of ignorance is usually a bad idea. Temporary maybe, but we’ve already done that. More finesse, like Austria’s, is now the rational choice. The genetic and baseline co-factors of getting badly sick are yet to be understood well. Importantly, cheap and effective cures and treatments are working; widespread testing is now possible. Then the issue of inaccurate test results will only be known after many months, if not years.

    Now, can we change the subject?

  49. @Bitfu
    Risk and Reward.

    Instead of applying Risk/Reward analysis to re-opening the economy--why don't we begin applying it to 'Flatten the Curve'?

    Thus far, we've blindly pursued a 'Flatten The Curve At All Costs, No Matter What Because No Other Deaths Matter Besides COVID-19' strategy.

    Maybe there are worse things than COVID. Maybe 'Stop COVID At All Costs'--actually costs too much.

    Of course, accepting this new reality means more deaths from COVID--and this is truly a sad thing. But, it also would mean less deaths from suicide, despair, societal-breakdown, crime, hunger, all the other maladies and illnesses which currently are being ignored--'because COVID, stupid'...among so many others.

    Now, what I just wrote may seem callous with respect to COVID sufferers. I don't mean it that way. I just don't think we can snuff out COVID without incurring even worse outcomes in doing so.

    And on that subject of being callous---I'm starting to get the impression that the COVID-Flat-Curvers don't really give a flying f*ck about the suffering being imposed from treating COVID like it's The Black Plague. So, maybe it's the COVID-Flat-Curvers who are actually being callous here.

    I’m starting to get the impression that the COVID-Flat-Curvers don’t really give a flying f*ck about the suffering being imposed from treating COVID like it’s The Black Plague.

    Welcome to the party, pal.

    You can help answer this. Are there any second-order death effects in the London model for Corona? Of course, now the argument is the models aren’t SUPPOSED to be correct:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-models-arent-supposed-be-right/609271/

    That is one of the better articles explaining why you might want to lock down the economy, BTW. We know now that it will likely kill more people from poverty and deaths of despair than the virus will, but we probably didn’t know that then.

  50. @Bitfu
    Risk and Reward.

    Instead of applying Risk/Reward analysis to re-opening the economy--why don't we begin applying it to 'Flatten the Curve'?

    Thus far, we've blindly pursued a 'Flatten The Curve At All Costs, No Matter What Because No Other Deaths Matter Besides COVID-19' strategy.

    Maybe there are worse things than COVID. Maybe 'Stop COVID At All Costs'--actually costs too much.

    Of course, accepting this new reality means more deaths from COVID--and this is truly a sad thing. But, it also would mean less deaths from suicide, despair, societal-breakdown, crime, hunger, all the other maladies and illnesses which currently are being ignored--'because COVID, stupid'...among so many others.

    Now, what I just wrote may seem callous with respect to COVID sufferers. I don't mean it that way. I just don't think we can snuff out COVID without incurring even worse outcomes in doing so.

    And on that subject of being callous---I'm starting to get the impression that the COVID-Flat-Curvers don't really give a flying f*ck about the suffering being imposed from treating COVID like it's The Black Plague. So, maybe it's the COVID-Flat-Curvers who are actually being callous here.

    Now, what I just wrote may seem callous with respect to COVID sufferers. I don’t mean it that way. I just don’t think we can snuff out COVID without incurring even worse outcomes in doing so.

    And on that subject of being callous—I’m starting to get the impression that the COVID-Flat-Curvers don’t really give a flying f*ck about the suffering being imposed from treating COVID like it’s The Black Plague. So, maybe it’s the COVID-Flat-Curvers who are actually being callous here.

    Darn straight Bitfu. We have a pretty good handle on the range and target market for corona-chan. And this “people will die!” hysteria is over the top.

    There’s nothing callous about saying “there are tradeoffs.”

    2.8 million Americans died last year. How many of them could have been “saved” for 4 trillion dollars! Well if “saved” means eke out a year or two more of life … a whole ‘effing lot of them!

    How many years of life could be saved with the sort of police power that’s wielded now?

    First off, i’m banning smoking. I’m banning drug use. I’m banning homosexuality–not the “orientation” but the behavior. And tattoos–no. (Better aesthetics makes people happier and saves lives.)

    I’m closing down Facebook and Twitter. Cell phones will have interlocks and can not be used more than an hour in any one day. (Contractors can get get a waver but content will be monitored.) Women will be less annoying and that will save marriages, reduce stress, cut heart attacks and save lives.

    TVs and other screens will have an interlock. And all will be cut off from say 6-7 pm when all Americans are expected to get out and walk. If that doesn’t work–ankle bracelets aren’t too expensive.

    And Americans are simply eating too much. Food will be rationed and consumption monitored by home video cameras connected to expert systems.

    And i’m putting Americans on a diet. I’m a bit overweight. So i fast (skip eating) one day a month. (More as willpower thing. I try and get into mild ketosis daily with a 16 hr break between meals.) All Americans can easily, cheaply be float tested for body fat. A good slice won’t need any fast days. Another large slice is in my bucket and could skip eat one or two days a month. Then we scale up with excess fat through three, four, five … days a month without food. A good 10-15% of Americans will be put on the Bobby Sands diet.

    Give me these powers and i’ll save millions of American lives! So why aren’t we doing it?

    • Replies: @anon
    Give me these powers and i’ll save millions of American lives!

    No doubt you'd want to have some special camps built for the really difficult cases, where they could concentrate all their attention on setting themselves free from bad health through appropriate work.

    How many boxcars do you expect you would need, Comrade?
    , @Rosie

    Give me these powers and i’ll save millions of American lives! So why aren’t we doing it?
     
    Maybe we should start seriously thinking about some of these things. Not so long ago, we had a national shutdown once a week, so everyone could have a day of rest. No longer. Don't heart attacks sometimes take men in their prime?

    I know I will be having some serious talks with the kids about whether we will resume our former pace of life, or whether we will make some tough decisions about which activities take up more time and energy than they are worth.

    , @HammerJack
    Because Racism, duh. Disparate Impact!

    Same reason we can't have nice things.
  51. @Jonathan Mason

    But instead of doing the obvious–masks, sanitizer and carry on–we went to this orgy of super-state power and locked everyone and everything down.
     
    But that is the American way! Rather like the TSA checking every single passenger on an aircraft rather than using a more selective method to identify bad people.

    When I was working for a well-known S&P 500 corporation, I had to open, (supposedly read) and check off over 1500 policies and procedures on a computer, most of which were in no way relevant to my own job. It took about 10 hours of mousework spread over a month to check off these procedures on the computer without even reading a single word of any of the policies and procedures, just clicking and checking, and swearing that you had read them.

    But that is your US culture and legal system for you! Risk management rules and if you have a record of every single employee swearing that they have read 1500 policies and procedures, then you are off the hook when someone gets killed when policy and procedure was not followed.

    Exactly. Safety means “no possibility of lawsuits.” Actual safety requires, time, attention, and caring about the needs of employees. Good luck with that policy in Bureaucratistan.

  52. We had a random sample study here in Stockholm which covered late March/Early April and found that 2.5% of all people were infected at that particular time. By then, we’ve already had Corona for six weeks. Our leading epidemilogist estimated that upwards 15-20% of the population in Stockholm already has herd immunity (you also have to take into account the time which has passed since).

    We’re getting more results from nation-wide surveys next week. In per capita daily new deaths, we are already ahead of Italy, even if they are slowly declining. That said, only about ~20% of ICU capacity is being used and the amount of people going into ICUs has been very steady for weeks on end. The great collapse simply never happened.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Do you have a link?
    , @utu
    If 20% was infected in Stockholm (970,000 pop) as of yesterday (April 10) per the Chief Epidemiologist of Sweden, Anders Tegnell, then in 2-3 weeks the total death count for Stockholm would be 1,940 at CFR=1%.

    If on April 1 the infection rate was 2.5% and ten days later on April 10 it was 20% this means a very fast growth with 3 day doubling period. The doubling period will be getting longer now as R0 is getting smaller because the probability of finding the uninfected by the virus is decreasing.

    If Stockholm reached the herd immunity, say at 70% infection rate in a week or two then the expected total death count for Stockholm alone would be 6,780 at CFR=1%.

    Why do we know that Sweden's number will be significantly lower? Anders Tegnell said himself, that he will slash the death rate to well below 1 per cent.

    https://archive.fo/seBhv#selection-981.0-981.230
    April 3
    The Swedes believe that changing how the figures are reported will cut the number of people dying from coronavirus by as much as four fifths, and slash the death rate to well below 1 per cent, perhaps even lower than seasonal flu
     
    Ahead of time Swedes knew what was their target death rate, that they wanted to have just a flu experience or even something milder. All it took for Swedes was to draw the line between the deaths "from virus" and deaths "with virus" in a right place. One stroke of pen and the problem of this epidemic and all future epidemics for the mankind has been solved. Anders Tegnell deserves two Nobel prizes, in economic science and in medicine!
  53. @MikeatMikedotMike
    All this hyper analysis is starting to remind me of deck chair reshuffling.

    Millions of people are out of work, millions of people cannot or will not gather in public places. Millions of people scurry around in fear of something that has taken on a superstitious quality. The local governments have seized on this opportunity to assume more power for themselves, and have found the perfect way to keep people isolated in their homes consuming useless media and material. Per my wife, that deranged and grotesque place known as social media has turned into a Thunderdome-esque arena of vile and hate filled virtue signalling, as people bludgeon each other for daring not hide out in their homes like rats in a hole. The precedent has been set: This pathogen lock down stuff will become the new norm; expect a lock down to occur every few years or every year even.

    Millions of students are being denied the traditions and occasions all of us were entitled to, (Spring time extracurriculars - sports, theater, and competitive academics - dances, proms, graduations, etc) especially the seniors in high school and college, as they see those coming of age events cancelled out of a panic, and they end those milestones of normal young life with a sense of disappointment that I can't really imagine. Those things have been stolen from our young people so that what, exactly? It wouldn't surprise me to find that the class of 2020 turns out to be one of the most cynical cohorts of any generation in the years ahead.

    Is it all worth it? Not even close.

    “Those things have been stolen from our young people so that what, exactly? It wouldn’t surprise me to find that the class of 2020 turns out to be one of the most cynical cohorts of any generation in the years ahead.”

    Hadn’t thought about that, but it’s obviously true. If they find out the truth. As the expression goes, truth is treason in an empire of lies. You sound like a traitor to me.

    • Agree: MikeatMikedotMike
  54. anon[846] • Disclaimer says:
    @Bitfu
    Risk and Reward.

    Instead of applying Risk/Reward analysis to re-opening the economy--why don't we begin applying it to 'Flatten the Curve'?

    Thus far, we've blindly pursued a 'Flatten The Curve At All Costs, No Matter What Because No Other Deaths Matter Besides COVID-19' strategy.

    Maybe there are worse things than COVID. Maybe 'Stop COVID At All Costs'--actually costs too much.

    Of course, accepting this new reality means more deaths from COVID--and this is truly a sad thing. But, it also would mean less deaths from suicide, despair, societal-breakdown, crime, hunger, all the other maladies and illnesses which currently are being ignored--'because COVID, stupid'...among so many others.

    Now, what I just wrote may seem callous with respect to COVID sufferers. I don't mean it that way. I just don't think we can snuff out COVID without incurring even worse outcomes in doing so.

    And on that subject of being callous---I'm starting to get the impression that the COVID-Flat-Curvers don't really give a flying f*ck about the suffering being imposed from treating COVID like it's The Black Plague. So, maybe it's the COVID-Flat-Curvers who are actually being callous here.

    Thus far, we’ve blindly pursued a ‘Flatten The Curve At All Costs, No Matter What Because No Other Deaths Matter Besides COVID-19‘ strategy.

    Flattening the curve means that ICU’s do not become stuffed full of COVID-19 patients. Therefore ICU space is available for other people, such as survivors of car accidents and other accidents, women who had complications with birth, sick children and so forth and so on.

    Keeping ICU space available for everyone is a good thing . Perhaps you should think through your ideas more fully, and dial back on the rage.

  55. @AnotherDad

    Between half and two third of a population need to have the antibodies for there to be no bounceback COVID-19 epidemic and associated deaths after the lockdown is loosened. But there is absolutely no reason to think that any Western country but Sweden will ever get to that ‘herd immunity’ point without a mass vaccination.
     
    Sean, that's roughly my take. It's fairly uncertain exactly where we are, but not hard to venture a decent guess.

    My take is that we could get the reproduction rate below 1, simply by closing the clubs, bars, restaurants, and any sort of mass touchy feely event (which admittedly i have little interest in; my happy spot is more like a day out on the trail, view from pass or peak ... which is why i'm here in Florida) and then masking up for indoor public activities. The virus would spread in households--depending wildly on how good they were at following directions--but wouldn't hop between them much, so would fizzle out.

    But instead of doing the obvious--masks, sanitizer and carry on--we went to this orgy of super-state power and locked everyone and everything down.

    The upside: This lockdown pretty much guaranteed that the reproduction rate would be pushed below 1, at least for "communities" where people comply. Infected people would continue to infect people in their households but not outside. We may be seeing the epidemic peaking. Though i'd guess it won't nicely roll over and crash but will ooze because "population groups" of low compliance.


    But the lockdown has painted us into this corner of feminized "people will die!" shrieking.

    Just lifting measures wholesale would kick the epidemic back up--though with a delay. And there's going to be so much economic uncertainty about that, that it will be basically impossible to get much activity moving again. Tentative--oh now you can do X--can work, but the data is non-existence, the feedback loop to tell if "ok" painfully slow. And the ad hoc tentative nature of it means even more uncertainty and economic wallowing.

    Basically at this point we're stuck waiting around for the Deus ex machina of a vaccine. Or--distinctly 2nd banana--a solid cheap combo preventative therapy and treatment--enough zinc and quercetin supplementation for every American and enough hydroxychloroquine for everyone who gets infected.

    To get things rev'd back up, we need a--we've beaten this!--VC day party.

    For a decent recovery there is no substitute for victory.

    My take is that we could get the reproduction rate below 1, simply by closing the clubs, bars, restaurants, and any sort of mass touchy feely event … and then masking up for indoor public activities. The virus would spread in households–depending wildly on how good they were at following directions–but wouldn’t hop between them much, so would fizzle out.

    This (and similar variants) is a key question. If students can become infected and contagious enough to spread to their families then I suspect you are wrong. Especially if interscholastic events are not shut down.

    If the fatality rate for those under 40 is as low as estimates we are seeing I would be sorely tempted to try to (voluntarily) infect everyone (without major preexisting conditions) below 40 (or pick a different threshold you prefer) then quarantine them for two weeks and check antibody status to be sure. This assumes we would make an effort to offer them something like…

    a solid cheap combo preventative therapy and treatment–enough zinc and quercetin supplementation for every American and enough hydroxychloroquine for everyone who gets infected.

    It would be really great to see some studies along these lines. Say if there is a second wave.

    • Replies: @vhrm

    If the fatality rate for those under 40 is as low as estimates we are seeing I would be sorely tempted to try to (voluntarily) infect everyone (without major preexisting conditions) below 40 (or pick a different threshold you prefer)
     
    If States were really thinking about this with a cool head, ESPECIALLY if they believe the 1% IFR 70% of population infected type models, they would be doing this with their healthcare workers already to build resistance now before the peak.
  56. @AnotherDad

    Between half and two third of a population need to have the antibodies for there to be no bounceback COVID-19 epidemic and associated deaths after the lockdown is loosened. But there is absolutely no reason to think that any Western country but Sweden will ever get to that ‘herd immunity’ point without a mass vaccination.
     
    Sean, that's roughly my take. It's fairly uncertain exactly where we are, but not hard to venture a decent guess.

    My take is that we could get the reproduction rate below 1, simply by closing the clubs, bars, restaurants, and any sort of mass touchy feely event (which admittedly i have little interest in; my happy spot is more like a day out on the trail, view from pass or peak ... which is why i'm here in Florida) and then masking up for indoor public activities. The virus would spread in households--depending wildly on how good they were at following directions--but wouldn't hop between them much, so would fizzle out.

    But instead of doing the obvious--masks, sanitizer and carry on--we went to this orgy of super-state power and locked everyone and everything down.

    The upside: This lockdown pretty much guaranteed that the reproduction rate would be pushed below 1, at least for "communities" where people comply. Infected people would continue to infect people in their households but not outside. We may be seeing the epidemic peaking. Though i'd guess it won't nicely roll over and crash but will ooze because "population groups" of low compliance.


    But the lockdown has painted us into this corner of feminized "people will die!" shrieking.

    Just lifting measures wholesale would kick the epidemic back up--though with a delay. And there's going to be so much economic uncertainty about that, that it will be basically impossible to get much activity moving again. Tentative--oh now you can do X--can work, but the data is non-existence, the feedback loop to tell if "ok" painfully slow. And the ad hoc tentative nature of it means even more uncertainty and economic wallowing.

    Basically at this point we're stuck waiting around for the Deus ex machina of a vaccine. Or--distinctly 2nd banana--a solid cheap combo preventative therapy and treatment--enough zinc and quercetin supplementation for every American and enough hydroxychloroquine for everyone who gets infected.

    To get things rev'd back up, we need a--we've beaten this!--VC day party.

    For a decent recovery there is no substitute for victory.

    AD, where do you live in FL?

  57. @Mr. Anon

    And on that subject of being callous—I’m starting to get the impression that the COVID-Flat-Curvers don’t really give a flying f*ck about the suffering being imposed from treating COVID like it’s The Black Plague. So, maybe it’s the COVID-Flat-Curvers who are actually being callous here.
     
    Yes, the spectacle of aging boomers wagging thier fingers at everyone about how selfish they are being for just living their life is becoming disgusting. Denying millions of other people formative live experiences that older generations took for granted - that isn't selfish? Denying other people medical care that doesn't pertain to COVID-19 (including cancer-screening diagnostic procedures) - that isn't selfish? Casually throwing away civil liberties - that isn't selfish? Throwing millions of people out of work - that isn't selfish? Crushing tens of thousands of small businesses - that isn't selfish?

    The Hong Kong Flu struck America in 1968-1969. It killed an estimated 100,000 Americans, 1 million worldwide (most in that first year, with additional cases out to1972). You may not have heard of it; it barely rates a mention in most capsule histories of the time, what with Vietnam, Apollo 8, etc. It was perhaps not quite so bad a pandemic as the Asian Flu of 1957, which killed a similar number of people. The public health officials at the time - who were closer in time (and perhaps even memory and experience) to the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic didn't freakout like ours today have.

    Imagine if we had done then what we're doing now? Think of what those self-same boomers would have said if told to stay indoors, stay away from everybody. How would they have reacted if they had been told: what are you complaining about man? - you didn't have to fight WWII - you just have to stay home. Watch Greenacres and Gunsmoke. No Woodstock for you- you need to social-distance.

    The public health officials at the time – who were closer in time (and perhaps even memory and experience) to the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic didn’t freakout like ours today have.

    Also worth mentioning that flu years 2x that of 1957/1968 were routine in the 1930s. See graph in my earlier comment.

    P.S. You might also ponder how something like these shutdowns would have worked in combination with “Don’t trust anyone under 30.”

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon

    P.S. You might also ponder how something like these shutdowns would have worked in combination with “Don’t trust anyone under 30.
     
    Over 30, you mean?
  58. @Hippopotamusdrome


    I’m not advocating for a “controlled burn” of the elderly

     

    So you're advocating immortality for mankind?

    I’m advocating for the platform Trump ran on.

    For everything else …

  59. @Jonathan Mason
    I do agree about occupational hazard and prolonged exposure.

    My friend was conscientiously wearing masks and gloves and gowns long before corona virus came along, and now he is in intensive care with corona virus.

    But he is a fricking DENTIST who spends his whole life getting his face into other people's faces, sticking his fingers deep into other people mouths and drilling and spraying all day long.

    I would not be surprised if dentists have a higher than average rate of corona virus infection.

    Does he have any comorbidity?

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
    Not that I know of. Slim, energetic. Fit as a fiddle.
    , @Jonathan Mason
    I heard today that he is much better and that he is recovering. Thank goodness for that.
  60. Can someone write a report on Belgium? At 3,346 it has seventh highest deaths, more than China. Austria is, one tenth of it.

    • Replies: @JRB
    In most countries they only count the people who have died in hospitals and who are tested. Since they don't have enough test capacity to test in nursing homes, most of the deaths there are ignored in the statistics. In this way you can lower the number of official deaths in your statistics. To their credit the Belgian government decided to be more honest then most and count also the excess dying in nursing homes. This had lead to quite a large number of deaths in the official statistics in the last few days.
  61. Would a so-called “superspreader” be a social butterfly or would such a person be infected with a specific strain of the virus or would he have one particular symptom of infection, sneezing frequently, for instance, that makes him the spreader he is?

    • Replies: @Joe Schmoe
    I think a superspreader breathes out/transmits an enormous amount of the virus, while a typical infected person breathes out far less.

    This may not be exactly right.

    Someone who knows more can correct me.
  62. anon[846] • Disclaimer says:
    @AnotherDad


    Now, what I just wrote may seem callous with respect to COVID sufferers. I don’t mean it that way. I just don’t think we can snuff out COVID without incurring even worse outcomes in doing so.

    And on that subject of being callous—I’m starting to get the impression that the COVID-Flat-Curvers don’t really give a flying f*ck about the suffering being imposed from treating COVID like it’s The Black Plague. So, maybe it’s the COVID-Flat-Curvers who are actually being callous here.
     
    Darn straight Bitfu. We have a pretty good handle on the range and target market for corona-chan. And this "people will die!" hysteria is over the top.

    There's nothing callous about saying "there are tradeoffs."

    2.8 million Americans died last year. How many of them could have been "saved" for 4 trillion dollars! Well if "saved" means eke out a year or two more of life ... a whole 'effing lot of them!


    How many years of life could be saved with the sort of police power that's wielded now?

    First off, i'm banning smoking. I'm banning drug use. I'm banning homosexuality--not the "orientation" but the behavior. And tattoos--no. (Better aesthetics makes people happier and saves lives.)

    I'm closing down Facebook and Twitter. Cell phones will have interlocks and can not be used more than an hour in any one day. (Contractors can get get a waver but content will be monitored.) Women will be less annoying and that will save marriages, reduce stress, cut heart attacks and save lives.

    TVs and other screens will have an interlock. And all will be cut off from say 6-7 pm when all Americans are expected to get out and walk. If that doesn't work--ankle bracelets aren't too expensive.

    And Americans are simply eating too much. Food will be rationed and consumption monitored by home video cameras connected to expert systems.

    And i'm putting Americans on a diet. I'm a bit overweight. So i fast (skip eating) one day a month. (More as willpower thing. I try and get into mild ketosis daily with a 16 hr break between meals.) All Americans can easily, cheaply be float tested for body fat. A good slice won't need any fast days. Another large slice is in my bucket and could skip eat one or two days a month. Then we scale up with excess fat through three, four, five ... days a month without food. A good 10-15% of Americans will be put on the Bobby Sands diet.

    Give me these powers and i'll save millions of American lives! So why aren't we doing it?

    Give me these powers and i’ll save millions of American lives!

    No doubt you’d want to have some special camps built for the really difficult cases, where they could concentrate all their attention on setting themselves free from bad health through appropriate work.

    How many boxcars do you expect you would need, Comrade?

  63. @Sean
    Maximum protection of the 'immunofeeble' while getting only good things from globalisation is very feasible. You just protect them, and only them, from being infected until after the epidemic dies out when between a half to two thirds of the population have antibodies. Then the old folks can come out and not be in substantial danger from an epidemic even though they are not the ones who are immune to COVOD-19. And they are living in what is--imagine it-- suddenly the world's richest and most disease free country. But for such a strategy you need the Prime Minister to be a former welder, rather than physicist or journalist.

    https://www.svtstatic.se/image-cms/svtse/1574252634/play/nyhetsprogrammet-rapport/article24543329.svt/alternates/large/default-title

    Since this is my home country I have a vested interest in this going well even if the politicans in charge are morons(not because they’re former welders). The PM himself is a former union boss who is generally seen as stupid but as I like to remind people he’s still in office even with no majority behind him. He outwits the smart urban professionals. Some of his underlings though or maybe most of them..

    There are signs this strategy isn’t going so well since the number of dead is rather high compared to other countries(not like Italy but compared to our neighbours or even the US). The question is if this is because we’ve gone further on the path to herd immunity than others or if this strategy is flawed.

    On the other hand companies have sent home office workers weeks ago and it’s not like Swedes don’t do social distancing even at normal times. We don’t have any ultraorthodox Jews either(most Swedes wouldn’t recognize what hassidic or haredi means and it’s not due to any language barrier). If we’re lucky there are a bunch of Somali and Assyrians dying just like it has been so far. If we’re unlucky we’ll be in lockdown during summer.

    • Replies: @Sean
    Löfven as PM reminds me of the The Onion's horoscopes by 'Lloyd Schumner Sr., Retired Machinist'

    If we’re unlucky we’ll be in lockdown during summer....There are signs this strategy isn’t going so well since the number of dead is rather high compared to other countries
     
    No. The deaths are a feature not a bug. They are currently greater than in comparable countries because a vastly greater percentage of Swedes are being inoculated by being infected. The deaths are lower than the rest of the world is expecting Sweden to suffer by not having a total lockdown because there is in fact a Swedish distancing policy that protects the elderly and vulnerable, who although not having acquired immunity themselves will have greater freedom from infection than similar groups elsewhere because COVID-19 epidemic will be all through in Sweden for years to come.

    Governments in all advanced countries had plans for dealing with a respiratory disease pandemic. Long standing contingency planning was to get through the worst as fast as possible and put it behind the country. Sweden is the only country that has stuck to the original plan.

    The rest of the world has traded in tomorrow for today. Given the characteristics of COVID-19, the latest scientific estimate is there cannot be an epidemic of it if at least 50-66% of people in the population have antibodies to it. This state can be acquired by inoculation or by the aftermath of an epidemic that burnt itself out.

    1) Mass vaccinations will not occur for several months
    2) Unless the politicians are willing to risk being blamed for deaths from an inevitable re-ignition of the epidemic in their country their lockdown will have to be maintained more or less at the current level in every country--except Sweden--until mass vaccinations have been carried out. So several months, because no politician will take responsibility for a decision that will let the media pin mass deaths on him. Löfven doesn't have to do anything and inaction is more acceptable.

    , @JRB
    There seems to be some truth in what the Chinese investigated in February, that some races are more susceptible in the disease then others. This is due to differences in ACE2 receptors. Is it your impression that Somalis, Turks and Asians are dying in relatively higher numbers then ethnic Swedish people ?
  64. @Steve Sailer
    What's Diamond Princess up to: 1.5% IFR for average age of 58?

    I'm perhaps more worried about the potential for 3% long-term debilitation of middle aged people. The mean age of ICU patients in Britain is 60. I'm highly interested in how fully Boris Johnson, 55 and not without his sins but definitely a man of vigor, recovers.

    “I’m perhaps more worried about the potential for 3% long-term debilitation of middle aged people.” – I am afraid we do not know much about it.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Right. Let's find out as fast as possible, what is the health of recovered people. Researchers could use military personnel who have recovered and have them see if they can match last year's physical fitness performance.
  65. @AnotherDad


    Now, what I just wrote may seem callous with respect to COVID sufferers. I don’t mean it that way. I just don’t think we can snuff out COVID without incurring even worse outcomes in doing so.

    And on that subject of being callous—I’m starting to get the impression that the COVID-Flat-Curvers don’t really give a flying f*ck about the suffering being imposed from treating COVID like it’s The Black Plague. So, maybe it’s the COVID-Flat-Curvers who are actually being callous here.
     
    Darn straight Bitfu. We have a pretty good handle on the range and target market for corona-chan. And this "people will die!" hysteria is over the top.

    There's nothing callous about saying "there are tradeoffs."

    2.8 million Americans died last year. How many of them could have been "saved" for 4 trillion dollars! Well if "saved" means eke out a year or two more of life ... a whole 'effing lot of them!


    How many years of life could be saved with the sort of police power that's wielded now?

    First off, i'm banning smoking. I'm banning drug use. I'm banning homosexuality--not the "orientation" but the behavior. And tattoos--no. (Better aesthetics makes people happier and saves lives.)

    I'm closing down Facebook and Twitter. Cell phones will have interlocks and can not be used more than an hour in any one day. (Contractors can get get a waver but content will be monitored.) Women will be less annoying and that will save marriages, reduce stress, cut heart attacks and save lives.

    TVs and other screens will have an interlock. And all will be cut off from say 6-7 pm when all Americans are expected to get out and walk. If that doesn't work--ankle bracelets aren't too expensive.

    And Americans are simply eating too much. Food will be rationed and consumption monitored by home video cameras connected to expert systems.

    And i'm putting Americans on a diet. I'm a bit overweight. So i fast (skip eating) one day a month. (More as willpower thing. I try and get into mild ketosis daily with a 16 hr break between meals.) All Americans can easily, cheaply be float tested for body fat. A good slice won't need any fast days. Another large slice is in my bucket and could skip eat one or two days a month. Then we scale up with excess fat through three, four, five ... days a month without food. A good 10-15% of Americans will be put on the Bobby Sands diet.

    Give me these powers and i'll save millions of American lives! So why aren't we doing it?

    Give me these powers and i’ll save millions of American lives! So why aren’t we doing it?

    Maybe we should start seriously thinking about some of these things. Not so long ago, we had a national shutdown once a week, so everyone could have a day of rest. No longer. Don’t heart attacks sometimes take men in their prime?

    I know I will be having some serious talks with the kids about whether we will resume our former pace of life, or whether we will make some tough decisions about which activities take up more time and energy than they are worth.

    • Replies: @RichardTaylor
    If we are going to spend trillions of dollars, let's spend it on something more impactful than this bug. Let's drop 2 trillion on real breakthroughs.
  66. @MikeatMikedotMike
    All this hyper analysis is starting to remind me of deck chair reshuffling.

    Millions of people are out of work, millions of people cannot or will not gather in public places. Millions of people scurry around in fear of something that has taken on a superstitious quality. The local governments have seized on this opportunity to assume more power for themselves, and have found the perfect way to keep people isolated in their homes consuming useless media and material. Per my wife, that deranged and grotesque place known as social media has turned into a Thunderdome-esque arena of vile and hate filled virtue signalling, as people bludgeon each other for daring not hide out in their homes like rats in a hole. The precedent has been set: This pathogen lock down stuff will become the new norm; expect a lock down to occur every few years or every year even.

    Millions of students are being denied the traditions and occasions all of us were entitled to, (Spring time extracurriculars - sports, theater, and competitive academics - dances, proms, graduations, etc) especially the seniors in high school and college, as they see those coming of age events cancelled out of a panic, and they end those milestones of normal young life with a sense of disappointment that I can't really imagine. Those things have been stolen from our young people so that what, exactly? It wouldn't surprise me to find that the class of 2020 turns out to be one of the most cynical cohorts of any generation in the years ahead.

    Is it all worth it? Not even close.

    This pathogen lock down stuff will become the new norm; expect a lock down to occur every few years or every year even.

    I’m really hoping that it has the opposite effect, and people are left with a “OMG, what did we do?!” feeling.

    However, right now it really seems that a lot of people are really still largely buying the government line. Among my friends and acquaintances the outrage-at-shutdown is still a small minority. Same on web and Twitter (though really i’m not an expert there).

    I’m hoping that a movement develops to curb some of these emergency powers. Maybe in the redder states at least.

  67. @AnotherDad


    Now, what I just wrote may seem callous with respect to COVID sufferers. I don’t mean it that way. I just don’t think we can snuff out COVID without incurring even worse outcomes in doing so.

    And on that subject of being callous—I’m starting to get the impression that the COVID-Flat-Curvers don’t really give a flying f*ck about the suffering being imposed from treating COVID like it’s The Black Plague. So, maybe it’s the COVID-Flat-Curvers who are actually being callous here.
     
    Darn straight Bitfu. We have a pretty good handle on the range and target market for corona-chan. And this "people will die!" hysteria is over the top.

    There's nothing callous about saying "there are tradeoffs."

    2.8 million Americans died last year. How many of them could have been "saved" for 4 trillion dollars! Well if "saved" means eke out a year or two more of life ... a whole 'effing lot of them!


    How many years of life could be saved with the sort of police power that's wielded now?

    First off, i'm banning smoking. I'm banning drug use. I'm banning homosexuality--not the "orientation" but the behavior. And tattoos--no. (Better aesthetics makes people happier and saves lives.)

    I'm closing down Facebook and Twitter. Cell phones will have interlocks and can not be used more than an hour in any one day. (Contractors can get get a waver but content will be monitored.) Women will be less annoying and that will save marriages, reduce stress, cut heart attacks and save lives.

    TVs and other screens will have an interlock. And all will be cut off from say 6-7 pm when all Americans are expected to get out and walk. If that doesn't work--ankle bracelets aren't too expensive.

    And Americans are simply eating too much. Food will be rationed and consumption monitored by home video cameras connected to expert systems.

    And i'm putting Americans on a diet. I'm a bit overweight. So i fast (skip eating) one day a month. (More as willpower thing. I try and get into mild ketosis daily with a 16 hr break between meals.) All Americans can easily, cheaply be float tested for body fat. A good slice won't need any fast days. Another large slice is in my bucket and could skip eat one or two days a month. Then we scale up with excess fat through three, four, five ... days a month without food. A good 10-15% of Americans will be put on the Bobby Sands diet.

    Give me these powers and i'll save millions of American lives! So why aren't we doing it?

    Because Racism, duh. Disparate Impact!

    Same reason we can’t have nice things.

  68. @res

    My take is that we could get the reproduction rate below 1, simply by closing the clubs, bars, restaurants, and any sort of mass touchy feely event ... and then masking up for indoor public activities. The virus would spread in households–depending wildly on how good they were at following directions–but wouldn’t hop between them much, so would fizzle out.
     
    This (and similar variants) is a key question. If students can become infected and contagious enough to spread to their families then I suspect you are wrong. Especially if interscholastic events are not shut down.

    If the fatality rate for those under 40 is as low as estimates we are seeing I would be sorely tempted to try to (voluntarily) infect everyone (without major preexisting conditions) below 40 (or pick a different threshold you prefer) then quarantine them for two weeks and check antibody status to be sure. This assumes we would make an effort to offer them something like...

    a solid cheap combo preventative therapy and treatment–enough zinc and quercetin supplementation for every American and enough hydroxychloroquine for everyone who gets infected.
     
    It would be really great to see some studies along these lines. Say if there is a second wave.

    If the fatality rate for those under 40 is as low as estimates we are seeing I would be sorely tempted to try to (voluntarily) infect everyone (without major preexisting conditions) below 40 (or pick a different threshold you prefer)

    If States were really thinking about this with a cool head, ESPECIALLY if they believe the 1% IFR 70% of population infected type models, they would be doing this with their healthcare workers already to build resistance now before the peak.

  69. @viennacapitalist
    The 15 percent in Gangelt are not representative, as the authors of the study keep pointing out in German newspapers. This town is a known hotspot due to some carneval event which everybody in this 3.000 people village attended. Same fror Lombardy

    In Austria the hotspot's are in the Alpine Regions of Tyrol where certain villages even were completely locked-down for three weeks (nobody allowed to exit or enter the village without explicit permission). There I would assume infection rates are closer to what you have in other hotspots.
    For instance, in Landeck (Tyrol) district with 7.700 inhabitants there have been 930 CONFIRMED cases, i.e. close to 15 percent without taking shadow numbers into account.

    See here for confirmed cases per district in Austria:
    https://www.addendum.org/coronavirus/oesterreich-verbreitung/

    viennacapitalist, can we get your source for the 350 supermarket employees randomly tested tested negative?

    • Replies: @LemmusLemmus
    Here are two, though they say nothing about random sampling:
    bit.ly/3a0lMvB
    https://bit.ly/3b78X48
    , @viennacapitalist
    see my comment below...
  70. It doesn’t matter what your occupation is if you use the subway the way most New Yorkers do.

  71. @utu
    "I’m perhaps more worried about the potential for 3% long-term debilitation of middle aged people." - I am afraid we do not know much about it.

    Right. Let’s find out as fast as possible, what is the health of recovered people. Researchers could use military personnel who have recovered and have them see if they can match last year’s physical fitness performance.

  72. @Bitfu
    Risk and Reward.

    Instead of applying Risk/Reward analysis to re-opening the economy--why don't we begin applying it to 'Flatten the Curve'?

    Thus far, we've blindly pursued a 'Flatten The Curve At All Costs, No Matter What Because No Other Deaths Matter Besides COVID-19' strategy.

    Maybe there are worse things than COVID. Maybe 'Stop COVID At All Costs'--actually costs too much.

    Of course, accepting this new reality means more deaths from COVID--and this is truly a sad thing. But, it also would mean less deaths from suicide, despair, societal-breakdown, crime, hunger, all the other maladies and illnesses which currently are being ignored--'because COVID, stupid'...among so many others.

    Now, what I just wrote may seem callous with respect to COVID sufferers. I don't mean it that way. I just don't think we can snuff out COVID without incurring even worse outcomes in doing so.

    And on that subject of being callous---I'm starting to get the impression that the COVID-Flat-Curvers don't really give a flying f*ck about the suffering being imposed from treating COVID like it's The Black Plague. So, maybe it's the COVID-Flat-Curvers who are actually being callous here.

    And on that subject of being callous—I’m starting to get the impression that the COVID-Flat-Curvers don’t really give a flying f*ck about the suffering being imposed from treating COVID like it’s The Black Plague. So, maybe it’s the COVID-Flat-Curvers who are actually being callous here.

    Exactly right. I can’t tell if it’s a sperg-out or if it’s a lack of empathy for anyone but themselves. Or both.

    • Replies: @Hail
    It's a combination of factors. There is no one single cause to the Corona Panic.

    A good analogy is to a chaotic revolution and coup d'etat. Power vacuum --> All sorts of opportunists emerge to push agendas, test the waters, carry out petty vendettas, or, in cases of the disciplined, make attempts to seize/expand power and usher in a new regime. Hence the term Corona Coup D'etat. I don't even think this is all that metaphorical. Coups d'etat don't have to be formal affairs with guns and tanks and flags aloft, nor carried out on an identifiable, single day.

    In short, people saw some personal advantage in emerging as pro-CoronaPanic figures at various stages, various reasons, and in snowballed.

    Another good analogy, which works in parallel with Corona Coup D'etat, is Corona as a religious cult. When someone joins an apocalyptic cult, it turns his thinking to mush for a while (or sometimes for life; there are still a handful of David Koresh believers out there), which leads in many cases to prolonged CoronaParanoia, the suspension of rational thinking, and the mass boycott of the concept of Tradeoffs and Cost-Benefit.

    There was a mass-conversion event from our familiar, love-based Christianity to the evil death cult of the CoronaReligion in February and March. Many remain full-fledged members of the new CoronaReligion as of this writing. If you want to see core, true-believer members of this bizarre death cult in one of their strongholds, find the Reddit r/Coronavirus. It is chock-full of CoronaParanoia and Doomers who punish anyone insufficiently alarmist. At night they chant in unison: "Death to All CoronaHeretics!"

    Good people were conned along the way. We were all lied to by the pro-CoronaPanic coup d'etat people and the Doomers who took over the asylum.

    Easter is here. Let us shine the light of Goodness and Right onto the evil death cult of the Corona Religion, which demands the blood-sacrifice of the youth of the nation.

  73. @Rosie

    Give me these powers and i’ll save millions of American lives! So why aren’t we doing it?
     
    Maybe we should start seriously thinking about some of these things. Not so long ago, we had a national shutdown once a week, so everyone could have a day of rest. No longer. Don't heart attacks sometimes take men in their prime?

    I know I will be having some serious talks with the kids about whether we will resume our former pace of life, or whether we will make some tough decisions about which activities take up more time and energy than they are worth.

    If we are going to spend trillions of dollars, let’s spend it on something more impactful than this bug. Let’s drop 2 trillion on real breakthroughs.

  74. @Thulean Friend
    We had a random sample study here in Stockholm which covered late March/Early April and found that 2.5% of all people were infected at that particular time. By then, we've already had Corona for six weeks. Our leading epidemilogist estimated that upwards 15-20% of the population in Stockholm already has herd immunity (you also have to take into account the time which has passed since).

    We're getting more results from nation-wide surveys next week. In per capita daily new deaths, we are already ahead of Italy, even if they are slowly declining. That said, only about ~20% of ICU capacity is being used and the amount of people going into ICUs has been very steady for weeks on end. The great collapse simply never happened.

    Do you have a link?

    • Replies: @res
    Here is a Reddit thread about it.
    https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/fxs1xi/about_25_percent_had_an_ongoing_covid19_infection/
    It has a link to a Swedish article along with an English translation.
  75. This has probably been posted, but, never mind….

    https://www.newscientist.com/term/cytokine-storm/

    Cytokine storm

    ……………………………………
    Cytokines are small proteins released by many different cells in the body, including those of the immune system where they coordinate the body’s response against infection and trigger inflammation. The name ‘cytokine’ is derived from the Greek words for cell (cyto) and movement (kinos).

    Sometimes the body’s response to infection can go into overdrive. For example, when SARS -CoV-2 – the virus behind the covid-19 pandemic – enters the lungs, it triggers an immune response, attracting immune cells to the region to attack the virus, resulting in localised inflammation. But in some patients, excessive or uncontrolled levels of cytokines are released which then activate more immune cells, resulting in hyperinflammation. This can seriously harm or even kill the patient

    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237259-why-dont-children-seem-to-get-very-ill-from-the-coronavirus/

    Why don’t children seem to get very ill from the coronavirus?

    In any case, children that do become infected are still less likely to get sick with covid-19 and die – a similar trend to that seen with SARS or MERS, two other severe diseases caused by coronaviruses. So, what is protecting children?
    …..

    Because children’s immune systems are still developing, one suggestion is that they are shielded from this type of dangerous immune response – called a cytokine storm – when they get covid-19 or similar diseases. During the SARS outbreak, two studies found children produced relatively low levels of inflammation-driving cytokines, which may have been what protected their lungs from serious damage.

  76. At the time of the study masks in supermarkets were not compulsory (they have become so since April 6th)

    That is Tartan Day, at least in North America.

    3M makes as many face masks as anybody, and the Wallace tartan is their trademark. But they let somebody else beat them to the obvious:

    Austrian tartans:

    http://www.xmarksthescot.com/forum/f254/austrian-tartans-66758/

    IS AUSTRIA THE TRUE HOME OF THE KILT?

  77. @Not My Economy
    What's happening here is that we are a people who have been denied a grand purpose. I believe human beings fundamentally desire some kind of "at all costs" problem to contend with.

    We have organized our society entirely around maximizing shareholder value. For members of capital, this obviously works very well as a grand "at all costs" purpose. But for most people, its hollow.

    Now there is something to care about again, and people are jumping at the chance.

    So, again, complain about it, or, use it to advantage.

    "At all costs" Okay... The cost of destroying COVID-19 is we restructure society around kids, families, local living, etc, etc. No more immigration, no more jet-set, no more chinese made garbage. Also, you have to shut up about systemic racism. Let's go.

    Now there is something to care about again, and people are jumping at the chance.

    What is that something?

    • Replies: @Hail


    Now there is something to care about again, and people are jumping at the chance.
     
    What is that something?
     
    It's the CoronaReligion. See above. There has been a mass-conversion event.
  78. @Sean
    At least their immigrants are working. In the UK there are a vast number idle and getting welfare that they never contributed to (also true of indigenous self employed).

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/10/europe/sweden-lockdown-turmp-intl/index.html

    "Sweden did that, the herd, they call it the herd"
     

    An Austrian better left unmentioned called Sweden a 'nation on furlough' but it seems the tables have turned. Now the West is being run into the ground by a bunch of aging men acting like old women. Meanwhile, antifragile Sweden powers ahead.

    All the smart money is now going to be heading for Sweden, looking to set up businesses somewhere with the kind of nightlife that is gone in the West. The investment will pour in, and they will be able to set incredibly high standards for immigrants. It is enough to make you weep.

    The investment will pour in, and they will be able to set incredibly high standards for immigrants. It is enough to make you weep.

    Huh?

    Sweden’s a nice place, they could always set incredibly high standards for immigrants. (For starters they could stick with a super high standard–zero.) Heck, every Western nation has had that option.

    Sweden has a bunch of garbage immigrants not because those are the only people who would come, but because they have chosen to do that. It’s … who they are.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    Sweden is a fantastically dull place with a very short and cold summer.
  79. @Steve Sailer
    Do you have a link?

    Here is a Reddit thread about it.

    About 2.5 percent had an ongoing covid-19 infection, according to a survey conducted by the Public Health Agency in the Stockholm region from COVID19


    It has a link to a Swedish article along with an English translation.

  80. @e
    Would a so-called "superspreader" be a social butterfly or would such a person be infected with a specific strain of the virus or would he have one particular symptom of infection, sneezing frequently, for instance, that makes him the spreader he is?

    I think a superspreader breathes out/transmits an enormous amount of the virus, while a typical infected person breathes out far less.

    This may not be exactly right.

    Someone who knows more can correct me.

  81. anon[152] • Disclaimer says:

    One blogger on Blogger in Manila, Luzon, Philippines. Reporting on what he sees in his area.

    https://comeandmakeit.blogspot.com/

    Here is a map I found that displays use of the BCG vaccine against tuberculosis. There is some overlay but not necessarily 100% however a pattern is visible in terms of COVID-19 infections and deaths.

    Article about the datbase
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3062527/

    map

    For example, Ecuador has been hit hard. It also is the only country in South America that may have discontinued the BCG vaccine.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
    The BCG is a vaccination against tuberculosis which is a bacteria. It seems much more likely that populations that have a greater number of hidden or latent tuberculosis cases would be more vulnerable to coronavirus due to comorbidity.

    I had the BCG myself more than 50 years ago and I would be extremely surprised if it continues to have any kind of protective value.
    , @epebble
    China has the world's third largest cases of tuberculosis. Hence, it would be reasonable to expect they would have extensively immunized the population (with BCG? Is it still the state of the art). But the fairly aggressive spread of infection (of Covid) seems to suggest that the BCG (if it was used) wasn't helpful.

    On the other hand, India, which also would have probably used BCG, has 1% of U.S. Covid deaths with 3 times the population.

    Conclusion: BCG has likely no impact on Covid.
  82. @Thulean Friend
    We had a random sample study here in Stockholm which covered late March/Early April and found that 2.5% of all people were infected at that particular time. By then, we've already had Corona for six weeks. Our leading epidemilogist estimated that upwards 15-20% of the population in Stockholm already has herd immunity (you also have to take into account the time which has passed since).

    We're getting more results from nation-wide surveys next week. In per capita daily new deaths, we are already ahead of Italy, even if they are slowly declining. That said, only about ~20% of ICU capacity is being used and the amount of people going into ICUs has been very steady for weeks on end. The great collapse simply never happened.

    If 20% was infected in Stockholm (970,000 pop) as of yesterday (April 10) per the Chief Epidemiologist of Sweden, Anders Tegnell, then in 2-3 weeks the total death count for Stockholm would be 1,940 at CFR=1%.

    If on April 1 the infection rate was 2.5% and ten days later on April 10 it was 20% this means a very fast growth with 3 day doubling period. The doubling period will be getting longer now as R0 is getting smaller because the probability of finding the uninfected by the virus is decreasing.

    If Stockholm reached the herd immunity, say at 70% infection rate in a week or two then the expected total death count for Stockholm alone would be 6,780 at CFR=1%.

    Why do we know that Sweden’s number will be significantly lower? Anders Tegnell said himself, that he will slash the death rate to well below 1 per cent.

    https://archive.fo/seBhv#selection-981.0-981.230
    April 3
    The Swedes believe that changing how the figures are reported will cut the number of people dying from coronavirus by as much as four fifths, and slash the death rate to well below 1 per cent, perhaps even lower than seasonal flu

    Ahead of time Swedes knew what was their target death rate, that they wanted to have just a flu experience or even something milder. All it took for Swedes was to draw the line between the deaths “from virus” and deaths “with virus” in a right place. One stroke of pen and the problem of this epidemic and all future epidemics for the mankind has been solved. Anders Tegnell deserves two Nobel prizes, in economic science and in medicine!

  83. @epebble
    Does he have any comorbidity?

    Not that I know of. Slim, energetic. Fit as a fiddle.

  84. @anon
    One blogger on Blogger in Manila, Luzon, Philippines. Reporting on what he sees in his area.

    https://comeandmakeit.blogspot.com/

    Here is a map I found that displays use of the BCG vaccine against tuberculosis. There is some overlay but not necessarily 100% however a pattern is visible in terms of COVID-19 infections and deaths.

    Article about the datbase
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3062527/

    map
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/core/lw/2.0/html/tileshop_pmc/tileshop_pmc_inline.html?title=Click%20on%20image%20to%20zoom&p=PMC3&id=3062527_pmed.1001012.g002.jpg

    For example, Ecuador has been hit hard. It also is the only country in South America that may have discontinued the BCG vaccine.

    The BCG is a vaccination against tuberculosis which is a bacteria. It seems much more likely that populations that have a greater number of hidden or latent tuberculosis cases would be more vulnerable to coronavirus due to comorbidity.

    I had the BCG myself more than 50 years ago and I would be extremely surprised if it continues to have any kind of protective value.

  85. @Fredrik
    Since this is my home country I have a vested interest in this going well even if the politicans in charge are morons(not because they're former welders). The PM himself is a former union boss who is generally seen as stupid but as I like to remind people he's still in office even with no majority behind him. He outwits the smart urban professionals. Some of his underlings though or maybe most of them..

    There are signs this strategy isn't going so well since the number of dead is rather high compared to other countries(not like Italy but compared to our neighbours or even the US). The question is if this is because we've gone further on the path to herd immunity than others or if this strategy is flawed.

    On the other hand companies have sent home office workers weeks ago and it's not like Swedes don't do social distancing even at normal times. We don't have any ultraorthodox Jews either(most Swedes wouldn't recognize what hassidic or haredi means and it's not due to any language barrier). If we're lucky there are a bunch of Somali and Assyrians dying just like it has been so far. If we're unlucky we'll be in lockdown during summer.

    Löfven as PM reminds me of the The Onion’s horoscopes by ‘Lloyd Schumner Sr., Retired Machinist’

    If we’re unlucky we’ll be in lockdown during summer….There are signs this strategy isn’t going so well since the number of dead is rather high compared to other countries

    No. The deaths are a feature not a bug. They are currently greater than in comparable countries because a vastly greater percentage of Swedes are being inoculated by being infected. The deaths are lower than the rest of the world is expecting Sweden to suffer by not having a total lockdown because there is in fact a Swedish distancing policy that protects the elderly and vulnerable, who although not having acquired immunity themselves will have greater freedom from infection than similar groups elsewhere because COVID-19 epidemic will be all through in Sweden for years to come.

    Governments in all advanced countries had plans for dealing with a respiratory disease pandemic. Long standing contingency planning was to get through the worst as fast as possible and put it behind the country. Sweden is the only country that has stuck to the original plan.

    The rest of the world has traded in tomorrow for today. Given the characteristics of COVID-19, the latest scientific estimate is there cannot be an epidemic of it if at least 50-66% of people in the population have antibodies to it. This state can be acquired by inoculation or by the aftermath of an epidemic that burnt itself out.

    1) Mass vaccinations will not occur for several months
    2) Unless the politicians are willing to risk being blamed for deaths from an inevitable re-ignition of the epidemic in their country their lockdown will have to be maintained more or less at the current level in every country–except Sweden–until mass vaccinations have been carried out. So several months, because no politician will take responsibility for a decision that will let the media pin mass deaths on him. Löfven doesn’t have to do anything and inaction is more acceptable.

  86. @res

    The public health officials at the time – who were closer in time (and perhaps even memory and experience) to the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic didn’t freakout like ours today have.
     
    Also worth mentioning that flu years 2x that of 1957/1968 were routine in the 1930s. See graph in my earlier comment.

    P.S. You might also ponder how something like these shutdowns would have worked in combination with "Don't trust anyone under 30."

    P.S. You might also ponder how something like these shutdowns would have worked in combination with “Don’t trust anyone under 30.

    Over 30, you mean?

    • Agree: res
  87. @Steve Sailer
    What's Diamond Princess up to: 1.5% IFR for average age of 58?

    I'm perhaps more worried about the potential for 3% long-term debilitation of middle aged people. The mean age of ICU patients in Britain is 60. I'm highly interested in how fully Boris Johnson, 55 and not without his sins but definitely a man of vigor, recovers.

    https://www.livescience.com/too-much-ventilator-use-for-covid19-coronavirus-patients.html

    COVID-19 patients do not have typical pneumonia–it is much milder–apparently because they clear CO2, so they often do not need ventilators and don’t benefit from the sedation required to be put on ventilator and even less from the extra pressure that a ventilator puts in the lungs. The COVID-19 patients do tend to be low in oxygen, sometimes very low, but the lasting damage usually associated with the aftermath of such low oxygen levels is absent. Johnson was just given oxygen, and that is becoming the default treatment.

  88. @anon
    One blogger on Blogger in Manila, Luzon, Philippines. Reporting on what he sees in his area.

    https://comeandmakeit.blogspot.com/

    Here is a map I found that displays use of the BCG vaccine against tuberculosis. There is some overlay but not necessarily 100% however a pattern is visible in terms of COVID-19 infections and deaths.

    Article about the datbase
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3062527/

    map
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/core/lw/2.0/html/tileshop_pmc/tileshop_pmc_inline.html?title=Click%20on%20image%20to%20zoom&p=PMC3&id=3062527_pmed.1001012.g002.jpg

    For example, Ecuador has been hit hard. It also is the only country in South America that may have discontinued the BCG vaccine.

    China has the world’s third largest cases of tuberculosis. Hence, it would be reasonable to expect they would have extensively immunized the population (with BCG? Is it still the state of the art). But the fairly aggressive spread of infection (of Covid) seems to suggest that the BCG (if it was used) wasn’t helpful.

    On the other hand, India, which also would have probably used BCG, has 1% of U.S. Covid deaths with 3 times the population.

    Conclusion: BCG has likely no impact on Covid.

  89. Hail says: • Website
    @Mr. Anon

    And on that subject of being callous—I’m starting to get the impression that the COVID-Flat-Curvers don’t really give a flying f*ck about the suffering being imposed from treating COVID like it’s The Black Plague. So, maybe it’s the COVID-Flat-Curvers who are actually being callous here.
     
    Yes, the spectacle of aging boomers wagging thier fingers at everyone about how selfish they are being for just living their life is becoming disgusting. Denying millions of other people formative live experiences that older generations took for granted - that isn't selfish? Denying other people medical care that doesn't pertain to COVID-19 (including cancer-screening diagnostic procedures) - that isn't selfish? Casually throwing away civil liberties - that isn't selfish? Throwing millions of people out of work - that isn't selfish? Crushing tens of thousands of small businesses - that isn't selfish?

    The Hong Kong Flu struck America in 1968-1969. It killed an estimated 100,000 Americans, 1 million worldwide (most in that first year, with additional cases out to1972). You may not have heard of it; it barely rates a mention in most capsule histories of the time, what with Vietnam, Apollo 8, etc. It was perhaps not quite so bad a pandemic as the Asian Flu of 1957, which killed a similar number of people. The public health officials at the time - who were closer in time (and perhaps even memory and experience) to the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic didn't freakout like ours today have.

    Imagine if we had done then what we're doing now? Think of what those self-same boomers would have said if told to stay indoors, stay away from everybody. How would they have reacted if they had been told: what are you complaining about man? - you didn't have to fight WWII - you just have to stay home. Watch Greenacres and Gunsmoke. No Woodstock for you- you need to social-distance.

    Great comment, Mr. Anon.

    The Hong Kong Flu struck America in 1968-1969

    I’ve tried to make the same point in comments here. Ask around, no one who “lived through it” even remembers the 1968-69 flu pandemic.

    The funny thing about that mass-non-remembrance is the 1968-69 flu pandemic was worse than the coronavirus is / will be. (And even one wants to push the upper-bound, 1968-69 and 2020 are still comparable.)

    The 1968-69 flu death toll in the US (for all influenza-attributed deaths; they didn’t have specific flu-virus tests for all patients) would be 165,000, if adjusted for 2020 population, the large majority associated with the peak two months when the Hong Kong pandemic strain first hit the US.

    165,000 is an upward-adjustment for population as of 2020; we’d have to raise it again to adjust for higher average age in 2020. Maybe the true comparison number is 250,000 deaths in 2020 if the same magnitude as the 1968-69 pandemic. This would be 0.075% of population total. If the experts are right and the 2020 coronavirus that has been so hyped up takes the now-predicted 0.01% to 0.05% of total population (the genuinely attributable deaths, not the fluffed-up counts of car-accident deaths magic-wanded into Corona Deaths), it will be milder than 1968, possibly much milder.

    And no one remembers [the 1968 pandemic]. It came and went, immediately forgotten except by specialists. Life goes on.

    • Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    'Ask around, no one who “lived through it” even remembers the 1968-69 flu pandemic.'

    My father remembers it, and forever after called influenza the 'Hong Kong tonker' - whatever 'tonker' means. He was 18 then.
  90. Hail says: • Website
    @RichardTaylor

    And on that subject of being callous—I’m starting to get the impression that the COVID-Flat-Curvers don’t really give a flying f*ck about the suffering being imposed from treating COVID like it’s The Black Plague. So, maybe it’s the COVID-Flat-Curvers who are actually being callous here.
     
    Exactly right. I can't tell if it's a sperg-out or if it's a lack of empathy for anyone but themselves. Or both.

    It’s a combination of factors. There is no one single cause to the Corona Panic.

    A good analogy is to a chaotic revolution and coup d’etat. Power vacuum –> All sorts of opportunists emerge to push agendas, test the waters, carry out petty vendettas, or, in cases of the disciplined, make attempts to seize/expand power and usher in a new regime. Hence the term Corona Coup D’etat. I don’t even think this is all that metaphorical. Coups d’etat don’t have to be formal affairs with guns and tanks and flags aloft, nor carried out on an identifiable, single day.

    In short, people saw some personal advantage in emerging as pro-CoronaPanic figures at various stages, various reasons, and in snowballed.

    Another good analogy, which works in parallel with Corona Coup D’etat, is Corona as a religious cult. When someone joins an apocalyptic cult, it turns his thinking to mush for a while (or sometimes for life; there are still a handful of David Koresh believers out there), which leads in many cases to prolonged CoronaParanoia, the suspension of rational thinking, and the mass boycott of the concept of Tradeoffs and Cost-Benefit.

    There was a mass-conversion event from our familiar, love-based Christianity to the evil death cult of the CoronaReligion in February and March. Many remain full-fledged members of the new CoronaReligion as of this writing. If you want to see core, true-believer members of this bizarre death cult in one of their strongholds, find the Reddit r/Coronavirus. It is chock-full of CoronaParanoia and Doomers who punish anyone insufficiently alarmist. At night they chant in unison: “Death to All CoronaHeretics!”

    Good people were conned along the way. We were all lied to by the pro-CoronaPanic coup d’etat people and the Doomers who took over the asylum.

    Easter is here. Let us shine the light of Goodness and Right onto the evil death cult of the Corona Religion, which demands the blood-sacrifice of the youth of the nation.

  91. @Anonymous

    Now there is something to care about again, and people are jumping at the chance.
     
    What is that something?

    Now there is something to care about again, and people are jumping at the chance.

    What is that something?

    It’s the CoronaReligion. See above. There has been a mass-conversion event.

  92. @Hippopotamusdrome


    Two black middle-age men who worked at the same Chicago-area Walmart

     

    Evans, 51, of Chicago, died March 25 due to complications of COVID-19 with morbid obesity a contributing factor

    We really should start a charity fund to discover a cure for "complications".

    Obese people and people with Type 2 diabetes are malnourished. They need mega doses of vitamin D3 along with other vitamins and minerals, not just one as doctors are doing with just zinc or just vitamin C. This will prevent them from dying from Covid-19. Supplementation can clear up deficiencies in days – a diet cannot.

    The body also needs to be alkanized by drinking large amounts water mixed with baking soda or lemon juice on an empty stomach.

    • Troll: guest007
    • Replies: @GermanReader2
    If you want to alkanize your body, long baths in alkalic water are better.
    , @Anonymous

    The body also needs to be alkanized by drinking large amounts water mixed with baking soda or lemon juice on an empty stomach.
     
    Why?
    , @UK
    This only makes sense to you because you have no idea how little you know about physiology and even chemistry.
  93. @Hippopotamusdrome


    Two black middle-age men who worked at the same Chicago-area Walmart

     

    Evans, 51, of Chicago, died March 25 due to complications of COVID-19 with morbid obesity a contributing factor

    We really should start a charity fund to discover a cure for "complications".

    In addition to obesity and smoking, a common co-morbidity for COVID-19 appears to be male homosexuality.

    • Replies: @GermanReader2
    That makes sense for anyone, who knows about hiv statistics or has read "And the band played on" by Randy Shilts. In Germany about 5% of MSM (official acronym for men, who have sex with men) are hiv positive and therefore have to take hiv medication constantly. Although it does seem to help a bit against Corona, the longterm effects are probably really bad for your body. Additionally homosexuals have a lot more stds Stds than heterosexual men and intestinal parasites. Combine that with a widespread use of party drugs and even lots of exercise and a good diet cannot save your health.
  94. @Triumph104

    ...interestingly, out of 350 tested supermarket employees NONE were infected, suggesting the virus might be less contagious under certain circumstances than generally assumed.
     
    Two black middle-age men who worked at the same Chicago-area Walmart store in Evergreen Park, Illinois died from Covid-19. When the family of one of the victims, a 15-year Walmart employee - overnight stocker and maintenance associate, had their request for burial assistance ignored by Walmart's employee emergency relief fund and they received calls from other employees about the poor working conditions and other workers with symptoms, they decided to file a wrongful death lawsuit which immediately got Walmart's attention.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/06/coronavirus-walmart-employees-family-files-wrongful-death-lawsuit.html

    Four Kroger supermarket employees across Michigan have died from Covid-19. Two or more Meijers supermarket employees have died (Meijers will not give a number).
    https://www.wzzm13.com/mobile/article/news/health/coronavirus/kroger-4-covid-deaths-michigan/69-2b5c9ee1-811d-4f94-95a1-c479afc36b7a

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon

    Four Kroger supermarket employees across Michigan have died from Covid-19. Two or more Meijers supermarket employees have died (Meijers will not give a number).
     
    Whereas in normal times, supermarket employees are immortal. That's why those jobs are so sought after - for the immortality they confer.
  95. @epebble
    Can someone write a report on Belgium? At 3,346 it has seventh highest deaths, more than China. Austria is, one tenth of it.

    In most countries they only count the people who have died in hospitals and who are tested. Since they don’t have enough test capacity to test in nursing homes, most of the deaths there are ignored in the statistics. In this way you can lower the number of official deaths in your statistics. To their credit the Belgian government decided to be more honest then most and count also the excess dying in nursing homes. This had lead to quite a large number of deaths in the official statistics in the last few days.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    The French also started counting nursing home deaths about a week ago, which led to a scary looking spike in the totas.
  96. @jim jones
    Boris is the main reason that the Norf went Tory:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctd0S2BVpDo

    Fury at the lefty establishment is what turned the North to voting Tory.

    All of the ten doctors to have died from coronavirus are ethnic minorities. Can’t be a statistical anomaly at that rate, so why?

    Dormant TB, lack of a BCG vaccine, hypertension, genes…

  97. @Fredrik
    Since this is my home country I have a vested interest in this going well even if the politicans in charge are morons(not because they're former welders). The PM himself is a former union boss who is generally seen as stupid but as I like to remind people he's still in office even with no majority behind him. He outwits the smart urban professionals. Some of his underlings though or maybe most of them..

    There are signs this strategy isn't going so well since the number of dead is rather high compared to other countries(not like Italy but compared to our neighbours or even the US). The question is if this is because we've gone further on the path to herd immunity than others or if this strategy is flawed.

    On the other hand companies have sent home office workers weeks ago and it's not like Swedes don't do social distancing even at normal times. We don't have any ultraorthodox Jews either(most Swedes wouldn't recognize what hassidic or haredi means and it's not due to any language barrier). If we're lucky there are a bunch of Somali and Assyrians dying just like it has been so far. If we're unlucky we'll be in lockdown during summer.

    There seems to be some truth in what the Chinese investigated in February, that some races are more susceptible in the disease then others. This is due to differences in ACE2 receptors. Is it your impression that Somalis, Turks and Asians are dying in relatively higher numbers then ethnic Swedish people ?

    • Replies: @Fredrik
    It's been in mass media that at least Somalis and Assyrians have been dying at a very high rate compared to Swedes. Note that those are two of the biggest immigrant groups in Stockholm so it may be possible that other groups are just as susceptible but there is no evidence so far.

    It's also possible that these groups just happened to suffer from super spreaders and are too stupid to practice social distancing so the disease spread. There was a birthday party in Stockholm where apparently 70 people were infected. The hosts were a gay couple so I wonder what took place at that party...
  98. @JRB
    In most countries they only count the people who have died in hospitals and who are tested. Since they don't have enough test capacity to test in nursing homes, most of the deaths there are ignored in the statistics. In this way you can lower the number of official deaths in your statistics. To their credit the Belgian government decided to be more honest then most and count also the excess dying in nursing homes. This had lead to quite a large number of deaths in the official statistics in the last few days.

    The French also started counting nursing home deaths about a week ago, which led to a scary looking spike in the totas.

  99. @AnotherDad

    The investment will pour in, and they will be able to set incredibly high standards for immigrants. It is enough to make you weep.
     
    Huh?

    Sweden's a nice place, they could always set incredibly high standards for immigrants. (For starters they could stick with a super high standard--zero.) Heck, every Western nation has had that option.

    Sweden has a bunch of garbage immigrants not because those are the only people who would come, but because they have chosen to do that. It's ... who they are.

    Sweden is a fantastically dull place with a very short and cold summer.

    • Replies: @Sean
    And no good ski resorts. Or debt. The financial orthodoxy is a reflection of them sticking to things that are established to work and not being recentists seizing on one dimensional solutions like a total lockdowns to stop deaths by Flattening The Curve so everyone can and so does get hooked up to a ventilator (even though the emergency doctors are finding the pneumonia in COVID-19 is more like altitude sickness than normal pneumonia, and ventilating such cases usually does more harm, permanent harm, than good).
  100. @Hail
    Great comment, Mr. Anon.

    The Hong Kong Flu struck America in 1968-1969
     
    I've tried to make the same point in comments here. Ask around, no one who "lived through it" even remembers the 1968-69 flu pandemic.

    The funny thing about that mass-non-remembrance is the 1968-69 flu pandemic was worse than the coronavirus is / will be. (And even one wants to push the upper-bound, 1968-69 and 2020 are still comparable.)

    The 1968-69 flu death toll in the US (for all influenza-attributed deaths; they didn't have specific flu-virus tests for all patients) would be 165,000, if adjusted for 2020 population, the large majority associated with the peak two months when the Hong Kong pandemic strain first hit the US.

    165,000 is an upward-adjustment for population as of 2020; we'd have to raise it again to adjust for higher average age in 2020. Maybe the true comparison number is 250,000 deaths in 2020 if the same magnitude as the 1968-69 pandemic. This would be 0.075% of population total. If the experts are right and the 2020 coronavirus that has been so hyped up takes the now-predicted 0.01% to 0.05% of total population (the genuinely attributable deaths, not the fluffed-up counts of car-accident deaths magic-wanded into Corona Deaths), it will be milder than 1968, possibly much milder.


    And no one remembers [the 1968 pandemic]. It came and went, immediately forgotten except by specialists. Life goes on.
     

    ‘Ask around, no one who “lived through it” even remembers the 1968-69 flu pandemic.’

    My father remembers it, and forever after called influenza the ‘Hong Kong tonker’ – whatever ‘tonker’ means. He was 18 then.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    I remember it.
    , @Hail
    You mentioned this a few weeks ago:

    Je Suis Omar Mateen says:

    “The 1968 one supposedly began in Hong Kong in unclear circumstances (from an animal, I guess), and by July 1968 had put its first large batch of Hong Kongers six feet under”

    Bless alls y’alls! My father has always called influenza the ‘Hong Kong tonker’ and I never understood why. He was 18 at the time of the Kong Flu of ’68. Mystery solved.
     

    It sounds like you'd never heard about the 1968-69 pandemic before Feb. 2020. I hadn't. How many of us had? I wouldn't say there is much real cultural memory of it at all, if any. Ask a hundred well-informed people to spend a few minutes listing things important that happened in 1968 and 1969. How many would say, "Oh, the pandemic of Hong Kong Flu, of course"?

    I wonder if you followed up with your father about it. He picked up the habit of calling it that but I wonder what he remembers about it specifically.

    Commenter res (I think it was), elsewhere, has pointed out that although 1968-69 was a pandemic by definition, it wasn't hugely more deadly than other flu seasons for the time.
    _
    https://hailtoyou.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/flu-related-deaths-per-100k-1930-to-2005.png
    _
    According to that 2005 study, 1968-69 matched 1976-77 in which no pandemic strain was identified.

  101. @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    'Ask around, no one who “lived through it” even remembers the 1968-69 flu pandemic.'

    My father remembers it, and forever after called influenza the 'Hong Kong tonker' - whatever 'tonker' means. He was 18 then.

    I remember it.

    • Replies: @Hail
    Have you posted about what you personally remember of it? That would interesting to hear. If I'm not mistaken, you celebrated your tenth birthday during the worst of it in the US (Dec. 1968).
  102. @Bitfu
    OR, we could say--

    Our models were wrong. Sorry.

    So...If you're younger than 60 and not a diabetic/overweight/high blood pressure person, get back to work--because the chances of you dying from this are really, REALLY low. Like, lightening strike low.

    If you're over 60, or in a high risk group, take measures to isolate yourselves. We have government programs to assist you.
     

    Is this the latest “its the flu, bro”-escapism?

    I’m adding it to my list. Jfc, you guys are laughable.

    You simply can’t accept life changed.

  103. @UK
    This makes the vast difference between the number of confirmed cases and the much larger number with antibodies utterly extraordinary. There should be almost no gap as testing would have been the most intensive in Germany. Instead it is 1:7, and therefore much higher across Germany and therefore ludicrously higher around the world as Germany tests a lot...

    I seem to remember that the previously known cases were 5%, which would mean 1:3. But I don’t have a source.

  104. GermanReader2 [AKA "GermanReader2_new"] says:
    @Mr. Anon
    In addition to obesity and smoking, a common co-morbidity for COVID-19 appears to be male homosexuality.

    That makes sense for anyone, who knows about hiv statistics or has read “And the band played on” by Randy Shilts. In Germany about 5% of MSM (official acronym for men, who have sex with men) are hiv positive and therefore have to take hiv medication constantly. Although it does seem to help a bit against Corona, the longterm effects are probably really bad for your body. Additionally homosexuals have a lot more stds Stds than heterosexual men and intestinal parasites. Combine that with a widespread use of party drugs and even lots of exercise and a good diet cannot save your health.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon

    In Germany about 5% of MSM (official acronym for men, who have sex with men)..........
     
    That's amusing - in America, MSM is a common acronym for "MainStream Media" - i.e. The New York Times, Washington Post, NPR, ABC/CBS/NBC/CNN/FOX, etc.

    It kinda fits. Especially for The Times and CNN.
  105. GermanReader2 [AKA "GermanReader2_new"] says:
    @Triumph104
    Obese people and people with Type 2 diabetes are malnourished. They need mega doses of vitamin D3 along with other vitamins and minerals, not just one as doctors are doing with just zinc or just vitamin C. This will prevent them from dying from Covid-19. Supplementation can clear up deficiencies in days - a diet cannot.

    The body also needs to be alkanized by drinking large amounts water mixed with baking soda or lemon juice on an empty stomach.

    If you want to alkanize your body, long baths in alkalic water are better.

  106. @LondonBob
    Sweden is a fantastically dull place with a very short and cold summer.

    And no good ski resorts. Or debt. The financial orthodoxy is a reflection of them sticking to things that are established to work and not being recentists seizing on one dimensional solutions like a total lockdowns to stop deaths by Flattening The Curve so everyone can and so does get hooked up to a ventilator (even though the emergency doctors are finding the pneumonia in COVID-19 is more like altitude sickness than normal pneumonia, and ventilating such cases usually does more harm, permanent harm, than good).

  107. @JRB
    There seems to be some truth in what the Chinese investigated in February, that some races are more susceptible in the disease then others. This is due to differences in ACE2 receptors. Is it your impression that Somalis, Turks and Asians are dying in relatively higher numbers then ethnic Swedish people ?

    It’s been in mass media that at least Somalis and Assyrians have been dying at a very high rate compared to Swedes. Note that those are two of the biggest immigrant groups in Stockholm so it may be possible that other groups are just as susceptible but there is no evidence so far.

    It’s also possible that these groups just happened to suffer from super spreaders and are too stupid to practice social distancing so the disease spread. There was a birthday party in Stockholm where apparently 70 people were infected. The hosts were a gay couple so I wonder what took place at that party…

  108. @John Andos
    viennacapitalist, can we get your source for the 350 supermarket employees randomly tested tested negative?

    Here are two, though they say nothing about random sampling:
    bit.ly/3a0lMvB
    https://bit.ly/3b78X48

  109. Hail says: • Website
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    'Ask around, no one who “lived through it” even remembers the 1968-69 flu pandemic.'

    My father remembers it, and forever after called influenza the 'Hong Kong tonker' - whatever 'tonker' means. He was 18 then.

    You mentioned this a few weeks ago:

    Je Suis Omar Mateen says:

    “The 1968 one supposedly began in Hong Kong in unclear circumstances (from an animal, I guess), and by July 1968 had put its first large batch of Hong Kongers six feet under”

    Bless alls y’alls! My father has always called influenza the ‘Hong Kong tonker’ and I never understood why. He was 18 at the time of the Kong Flu of ’68. Mystery solved.

    It sounds like you’d never heard about the 1968-69 pandemic before Feb. 2020. I hadn’t. How many of us had? I wouldn’t say there is much real cultural memory of it at all, if any. Ask a hundred well-informed people to spend a few minutes listing things important that happened in 1968 and 1969. How many would say, “Oh, the pandemic of Hong Kong Flu, of course”?

    I wonder if you followed up with your father about it. He picked up the habit of calling it that but I wonder what he remembers about it specifically.

    Commenter res (I think it was), elsewhere, has pointed out that although 1968-69 was a pandemic by definition, it wasn’t hugely more deadly than other flu seasons for the time.
    __
    According to that 2005 study, 1968-69 matched 1976-77 in which no pandemic strain was identified.

    • Replies: @Sean
    The 1968 pandemic (like the summer of lurv*, New Left movement in the U.S. and May student protests in France that saw DeGaulle fly to Germany) was likely a lot to do with the youth bulge that was peaking that year.

    COVID-19 ?


    Friday 27 December 2019

    The world was never so young, and also restless. More than 41 per cent of global population is below the age of 24 years.

    It is a generation that has grown up in the post-1990s tumultuous phase. They have grown up with one model of economic growth — the globalised free market. They are better off than their predecessors, economically and politically. But from Hong Kong to Chile to Lebanon to Barcelona to India, from rising food inflation to train tickets to curbing of freedom to climate change, from rich to poor, protests sweeping across the world have one common factor: The youth leading the charge.
     

    *Not sex as such; there is an interview on YouTube about the porn industry in which two women talk about it being an established fact that most of the performers in the US will out of action with influenza in the weeks after the annual Adult Video News awards convention in Las Vegas. Link to relevant point here, (later parts of interview are both hilarious and very sad). Anyway there are a lot of parties around the AVN, which suggests attending a party is the best way to super spread a respiratory pathogen. That fits in with the night of celebration in a Lombardy town over Champions League soccer match victory having been the culprit in Italy.
    , @res

    According to that 2005 study, 1968-69 matched 1976-77 in which no pandemic strain was identified.
     
    In an earlier comment about that study:
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/l-a-mayor-public-should-wear-masks-but-not-n95s/#comment-3814426
    https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/10.2105/AJPH.2007.119933

    I quoted a useful clarification from the study.

    Another possible explanation for the false assumption that pandemics are necessarily more deadly than nonpandemics may lie in an inaccurate understanding–and inconsistent use–of the word “pandemic.” Influenza virus circulates the globe on an annual basis, but is usually not labeled a pandemic until the strain of virus in wide circulation is substantially novel (i.e., it carries a different hemagglutinin or neuraminidase protein than the strains already in circulation). The 1977–1978 season illustrates this confusion, for although the season is not generally recognized as a pandemic, some have called it a pandemic because of the reemergence of the H1N1 virus.29(p2535) Thus, there is no a priori connection between influenza pandemics and exceptional mortality.
     
    , @Mr. Anon
    I had heard about the Hong Kong Flu before this year - read about it somewhere or another many years removed from the event. I lived through it, though I was too young to remember anything about it personally. However, I don't remember anyone talking about it - family, friends, friends' families, teachers, nada. I might have heard some mention of it on TV, possibly even as a punch-line. Nobody I knew ever remarked: that Hong Kong Flu- that was a doozy! We weren't sure we'd make it.
    , @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    "I wonder if you followed up with your father about it. He picked up the habit of calling it that but I wonder what he remembers about it specifically."

    We spoke recently and he remembers nothing more than the silly name he gave the flu of '68/69. He was drafted in '69, which overshadowed everything else at that time.
  110. @Steve Sailer
    I remember it.

    Have you posted about what you personally remember of it? That would interesting to hear. If I’m not mistaken, you celebrated your tenth birthday during the worst of it in the US (Dec. 1968).

  111. @Hail
    You mentioned this a few weeks ago:

    Je Suis Omar Mateen says:

    “The 1968 one supposedly began in Hong Kong in unclear circumstances (from an animal, I guess), and by July 1968 had put its first large batch of Hong Kongers six feet under”

    Bless alls y’alls! My father has always called influenza the ‘Hong Kong tonker’ and I never understood why. He was 18 at the time of the Kong Flu of ’68. Mystery solved.
     

    It sounds like you'd never heard about the 1968-69 pandemic before Feb. 2020. I hadn't. How many of us had? I wouldn't say there is much real cultural memory of it at all, if any. Ask a hundred well-informed people to spend a few minutes listing things important that happened in 1968 and 1969. How many would say, "Oh, the pandemic of Hong Kong Flu, of course"?

    I wonder if you followed up with your father about it. He picked up the habit of calling it that but I wonder what he remembers about it specifically.

    Commenter res (I think it was), elsewhere, has pointed out that although 1968-69 was a pandemic by definition, it wasn't hugely more deadly than other flu seasons for the time.
    _
    https://hailtoyou.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/flu-related-deaths-per-100k-1930-to-2005.png
    _
    According to that 2005 study, 1968-69 matched 1976-77 in which no pandemic strain was identified.

    The 1968 pandemic (like the summer of lurv*, New Left movement in the U.S. and May student protests in France that saw DeGaulle fly to Germany) was likely a lot to do with the youth bulge that was peaking that year.

    COVID-19 ?

    Friday 27 December 2019

    The world was never so young, and also restless. More than 41 per cent of global population is below the age of 24 years.

    It is a generation that has grown up in the post-1990s tumultuous phase. They have grown up with one model of economic growth — the globalised free market. They are better off than their predecessors, economically and politically. But from Hong Kong to Chile to Lebanon to Barcelona to India, from rising food inflation to train tickets to curbing of freedom to climate change, from rich to poor, protests sweeping across the world have one common factor: The youth leading the charge.

    *Not sex as such; there is an interview on YouTube about the porn industry in which two women talk about it being an established fact that most of the performers in the US will out of action with influenza in the weeks after the annual Adult Video News awards convention in Las Vegas. Link to relevant point here, (later parts of interview are both hilarious and very sad). Anyway there are a lot of parties around the AVN, which suggests attending a party is the best way to super spread a respiratory pathogen. That fits in with the night of celebration in a Lombardy town over Champions League soccer match victory having been the culprit in Italy.

  112. @Hail
    You mentioned this a few weeks ago:

    Je Suis Omar Mateen says:

    “The 1968 one supposedly began in Hong Kong in unclear circumstances (from an animal, I guess), and by July 1968 had put its first large batch of Hong Kongers six feet under”

    Bless alls y’alls! My father has always called influenza the ‘Hong Kong tonker’ and I never understood why. He was 18 at the time of the Kong Flu of ’68. Mystery solved.
     

    It sounds like you'd never heard about the 1968-69 pandemic before Feb. 2020. I hadn't. How many of us had? I wouldn't say there is much real cultural memory of it at all, if any. Ask a hundred well-informed people to spend a few minutes listing things important that happened in 1968 and 1969. How many would say, "Oh, the pandemic of Hong Kong Flu, of course"?

    I wonder if you followed up with your father about it. He picked up the habit of calling it that but I wonder what he remembers about it specifically.

    Commenter res (I think it was), elsewhere, has pointed out that although 1968-69 was a pandemic by definition, it wasn't hugely more deadly than other flu seasons for the time.
    _
    https://hailtoyou.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/flu-related-deaths-per-100k-1930-to-2005.png
    _
    According to that 2005 study, 1968-69 matched 1976-77 in which no pandemic strain was identified.

    According to that 2005 study, 1968-69 matched 1976-77 in which no pandemic strain was identified.

    In an earlier comment about that study:
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/l-a-mayor-public-should-wear-masks-but-not-n95s/#comment-3814426
    https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/10.2105/AJPH.2007.119933

    I quoted a useful clarification from the study.

    Another possible explanation for the false assumption that pandemics are necessarily more deadly than nonpandemics may lie in an inaccurate understanding–and inconsistent use–of the word “pandemic.” Influenza virus circulates the globe on an annual basis, but is usually not labeled a pandemic until the strain of virus in wide circulation is substantially novel (i.e., it carries a different hemagglutinin or neuraminidase protein than the strains already in circulation). The 1977–1978 season illustrates this confusion, for although the season is not generally recognized as a pandemic, some have called it a pandemic because of the reemergence of the H1N1 virus.29(p2535) Thus, there is no a priori connection between influenza pandemics and exceptional mortality.

  113. @Triumph104
    Four Kroger supermarket employees across Michigan have died from Covid-19. Two or more Meijers supermarket employees have died (Meijers will not give a number).
    https://www.wzzm13.com/mobile/article/news/health/coronavirus/kroger-4-covid-deaths-michigan/69-2b5c9ee1-811d-4f94-95a1-c479afc36b7a

    Four Kroger supermarket employees across Michigan have died from Covid-19. Two or more Meijers supermarket employees have died (Meijers will not give a number).

    Whereas in normal times, supermarket employees are immortal. That’s why those jobs are so sought after – for the immortality they confer.

  114. @obwandiyag
    You'll like this! The best graph of all! For deniers.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/fyqno3/hi_im_the_guy_who_aggregated_processed_the/

    An utterly useless graphic. It compares one-time events (like 911) with weekly death-rates. Anyways, the numbers of COVID-19 caused deaths are bogus.

  115. @Hail
    You mentioned this a few weeks ago:

    Je Suis Omar Mateen says:

    “The 1968 one supposedly began in Hong Kong in unclear circumstances (from an animal, I guess), and by July 1968 had put its first large batch of Hong Kongers six feet under”

    Bless alls y’alls! My father has always called influenza the ‘Hong Kong tonker’ and I never understood why. He was 18 at the time of the Kong Flu of ’68. Mystery solved.
     

    It sounds like you'd never heard about the 1968-69 pandemic before Feb. 2020. I hadn't. How many of us had? I wouldn't say there is much real cultural memory of it at all, if any. Ask a hundred well-informed people to spend a few minutes listing things important that happened in 1968 and 1969. How many would say, "Oh, the pandemic of Hong Kong Flu, of course"?

    I wonder if you followed up with your father about it. He picked up the habit of calling it that but I wonder what he remembers about it specifically.

    Commenter res (I think it was), elsewhere, has pointed out that although 1968-69 was a pandemic by definition, it wasn't hugely more deadly than other flu seasons for the time.
    _
    https://hailtoyou.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/flu-related-deaths-per-100k-1930-to-2005.png
    _
    According to that 2005 study, 1968-69 matched 1976-77 in which no pandemic strain was identified.

    I had heard about the Hong Kong Flu before this year – read about it somewhere or another many years removed from the event. I lived through it, though I was too young to remember anything about it personally. However, I don’t remember anyone talking about it – family, friends, friends’ families, teachers, nada. I might have heard some mention of it on TV, possibly even as a punch-line. Nobody I knew ever remarked: that Hong Kong Flu- that was a doozy! We weren’t sure we’d make it.

    • Thanks: Hail
  116. Anonymous[196] • Disclaimer says:
    @Triumph104
    Obese people and people with Type 2 diabetes are malnourished. They need mega doses of vitamin D3 along with other vitamins and minerals, not just one as doctors are doing with just zinc or just vitamin C. This will prevent them from dying from Covid-19. Supplementation can clear up deficiencies in days - a diet cannot.

    The body also needs to be alkanized by drinking large amounts water mixed with baking soda or lemon juice on an empty stomach.

    The body also needs to be alkanized by drinking large amounts water mixed with baking soda or lemon juice on an empty stomach.

    Why?

  117. @GermanReader2
    That makes sense for anyone, who knows about hiv statistics or has read "And the band played on" by Randy Shilts. In Germany about 5% of MSM (official acronym for men, who have sex with men) are hiv positive and therefore have to take hiv medication constantly. Although it does seem to help a bit against Corona, the longterm effects are probably really bad for your body. Additionally homosexuals have a lot more stds Stds than heterosexual men and intestinal parasites. Combine that with a widespread use of party drugs and even lots of exercise and a good diet cannot save your health.

    In Germany about 5% of MSM (official acronym for men, who have sex with men)……….

    That’s amusing – in America, MSM is a common acronym for “MainStream Media” – i.e. The New York Times, Washington Post, NPR, ABC/CBS/NBC/CNN/FOX, etc.

    It kinda fits. Especially for The Times and CNN.

  118. @Triumph104
    Obese people and people with Type 2 diabetes are malnourished. They need mega doses of vitamin D3 along with other vitamins and minerals, not just one as doctors are doing with just zinc or just vitamin C. This will prevent them from dying from Covid-19. Supplementation can clear up deficiencies in days - a diet cannot.

    The body also needs to be alkanized by drinking large amounts water mixed with baking soda or lemon juice on an empty stomach.

    This only makes sense to you because you have no idea how little you know about physiology and even chemistry.

  119. @Dwright
    I didn’t know there were many shoe store salesmen anymore.

    It’s a competitive job market vying for shoe salesman, but not as much as for gas-pumping station attendant, home milk delivery driver, and travel agent.

  120. @viennacapitalist
    The 15 percent in Gangelt are not representative, as the authors of the study keep pointing out in German newspapers. This town is a known hotspot due to some carneval event which everybody in this 3.000 people village attended. Same fror Lombardy

    In Austria the hotspot's are in the Alpine Regions of Tyrol where certain villages even were completely locked-down for three weeks (nobody allowed to exit or enter the village without explicit permission). There I would assume infection rates are closer to what you have in other hotspots.
    For instance, in Landeck (Tyrol) district with 7.700 inhabitants there have been 930 CONFIRMED cases, i.e. close to 15 percent without taking shadow numbers into account.

    See here for confirmed cases per district in Austria:
    https://www.addendum.org/coronavirus/oesterreich-verbreitung/

    viennacapitalist, do you have a source for the survey that showed no deaths for grocery store workers? I own a retail store and want to reassure my employees that the danger to them is low. No other agenda. Thanks!

    • Replies: @viennacapitalist
    Hi,
    I remember I read it in an Austrian newspaper, but have not had a detailed look at the study, there are issues with the reliability of the test
    You find the link here.

    https://www.kleinezeitung.at/international/corona/5797440/Wer-ist-immun_Anschober_Flaechendeckende-Antikoerpertests-ab-Ende

    It is more than 400 employees working in supermarkets (another article referred to a sample of 358)

    Somehow nobody is interested in these data, i.e. they are not much talked about. I cannot find anyting about them, apart from newspaper articles - who are referring to information by the health ministry.

    The text mentions that more tests are ongoing, so I will keep Steve updated, if interesting data comes in...
  121. @epebble
    Does he have any comorbidity?

    I heard today that he is much better and that he is recovering. Thank goodness for that.

  122. @Hail
    You mentioned this a few weeks ago:

    Je Suis Omar Mateen says:

    “The 1968 one supposedly began in Hong Kong in unclear circumstances (from an animal, I guess), and by July 1968 had put its first large batch of Hong Kongers six feet under”

    Bless alls y’alls! My father has always called influenza the ‘Hong Kong tonker’ and I never understood why. He was 18 at the time of the Kong Flu of ’68. Mystery solved.
     

    It sounds like you'd never heard about the 1968-69 pandemic before Feb. 2020. I hadn't. How many of us had? I wouldn't say there is much real cultural memory of it at all, if any. Ask a hundred well-informed people to spend a few minutes listing things important that happened in 1968 and 1969. How many would say, "Oh, the pandemic of Hong Kong Flu, of course"?

    I wonder if you followed up with your father about it. He picked up the habit of calling it that but I wonder what he remembers about it specifically.

    Commenter res (I think it was), elsewhere, has pointed out that although 1968-69 was a pandemic by definition, it wasn't hugely more deadly than other flu seasons for the time.
    _
    https://hailtoyou.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/flu-related-deaths-per-100k-1930-to-2005.png
    _
    According to that 2005 study, 1968-69 matched 1976-77 in which no pandemic strain was identified.

    “I wonder if you followed up with your father about it. He picked up the habit of calling it that but I wonder what he remembers about it specifically.”

    We spoke recently and he remembers nothing more than the silly name he gave the flu of ’68/69. He was drafted in ’69, which overshadowed everything else at that time.

  123. @Todd Ramsey
    viennacapitalist, do you have a source for the survey that showed no deaths for grocery store workers? I own a retail store and want to reassure my employees that the danger to them is low. No other agenda. Thanks!

    Hi,
    I remember I read it in an Austrian newspaper, but have not had a detailed look at the study, there are issues with the reliability of the test
    You find the link here.

    https://www.kleinezeitung.at/international/corona/5797440/Wer-ist-immun_Anschober_Flaechendeckende-Antikoerpertests-ab-Ende

    It is more than 400 employees working in supermarkets (another article referred to a sample of 358)

    Somehow nobody is interested in these data, i.e. they are not much talked about. I cannot find anyting about them, apart from newspaper articles – who are referring to information by the health ministry.

    The text mentions that more tests are ongoing, so I will keep Steve updated, if interesting data comes in…

  124. @John Andos
    viennacapitalist, can we get your source for the 350 supermarket employees randomly tested tested negative?

    see my comment below…

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