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A Plan for Intelligently Reopening the Economy Using Obituary Data
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As I’ve been pointing out for weeks, not all economic activity is inherently equally risky or safe in terms of spreading this particular infection. For example, a visit to a podiatrist (foot doctor) is likely less risky than a visit to an ears, nose, and throat specialist. (But that’s just my opinion on the relative risks.)

This suggests that some jobs should be reopened quickly and other jobs cautiously.

But how can we tell which is which?

We should look at infection / hospitalization / and death rates by occupation. If people in your type of work were seldom infected or hospitalized or dying, then you should get back to work. In contrast, if your type of worker has been dying like flies, well, you need serious plans to upgrade your activities to make them safer.

This is fair and objective.

But how can we get the data for this?

America has all sorts of privacy laws protecting infection and hospitalization information.

Yet, we also have laws protecting the privacy of your 1040 tax returns, but that hasn’t stopped Harvard economist Raj Chetty from getting his hands on “anonymized” 1040 data that nobody else had the gall to ask for. So, some Chetty-like data maestros (such as, to take a random example, Raj Chetty) should be proposing study protocols that get around HIPAA constraints.

But if these regulations prove insurmountable barriers to epidemiological science, unprivileged outsiders could still datamine newspaper obituaries for the occupations of people who have recently died. For example, in New York City, 9,780 people died in the 30 days ending April 4, 2020, 5,530 more deaths than the average NYC March-April period and almost 2,000 more than the 3,350 deaths attributed officially to coronavirus. (So, NYC appears to be undercounting coronavirus deaths.)

Another study says about 30% of deaths in NYC were people under age 65. Many of them would be retired, but you could probably find a sizable sample of people who were working up until their recent demise. So, look at the obituaries for New York City in March-April 2020 and count how many people died by different occupation categories. Then divide the deaths by occupation for previous years’ average March-April deaths.

The Index would give us a rough indication of how risky each occupation was. For example, it was reported recently that 41 NYC subway workers have died of coronavirus. (Update: now up to 50 deaths.)

Is that a big number? I don’t know. How many NYC subway workers die in the average month of March? If 40 die in the average time period in years past, then that’s not a big number. If the average has been 10, then subway workers were at risk about 4x greater than normal. You could do an apples to apples comparison by reading old obituaries.

For purposes of data analysis, I’d keep two separate counts: people who officially died of coronavirus, and people who just plain died. As we see in NYC, total excess deaths over the previous month have been about 1.6 times the number officially attributed to coronavirus.

This kind of analysis could be performed by amateur outsiders using public records, such as newspaper obituaries and the like. For example, sabermetrician baseball analysts: You got anything else to analyze at the moment?

Update: How about you Wall Street quants? For example, consider how valuable it would be to figure out the relative risk of infection of flight attendants, since their numbers could serve as a proxy for being a paying passenger on an airline. If flight attendants are surprisingly less infected than you would expect, then airline stocks should go up as the rest of the world figures out that flying isn’t as dangerous as they might have assumed.

There is money to be made by figuring out the relative risks of different economic activities.

 
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  1. Well, a death record is a public record, so anyone should be able to get it. Once you have the name and city, identifying the person gets pretty easy.

    This is the kind of work sociologists should be doing rather than researching trannies, etc.

    • Replies: @Jus' sayin'...
    I agree completely but can't press the Agree Button for some reason.
    , @Gordo

    Well, a death record is a public record, so anyone should be able to get it. Once you have the name and city, identifying the person gets pretty easy.

    This is the kind of work sociologists should be doing rather than researching trannies, etc.
     
    Indeed. Many years ago sociologists did good and valuable work.

    Nowadays they are considered oxygen thieves at best.
  2. Don’t stop at occupation. Add age, sex, race.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Right.
  3. @B36
    Don't stop at occupation. Add age, sex, race.

    Right.

  4. Anonymous[291] • Disclaimer says:

    GOVERNORS WHO KNOW THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DROPLET TRANSMISSION AND AIRBORNE TRANSMISSION CAN OPEN BUSINESSES ASAP

    Movie theaters and theaters of all types can be opened NOW with 1/ social distancing 2/ masks required 3/ disinfection of armrests before each show 4/ people with cough symptoms banned from entry. (15 min Abbot Labs nasal swab test booth outside the building is doable for permission to enter)

    “Quiet audience” rules might be tried. Also probably need a clapping substitute. Some sort of safe no-hands non-verbal way to applaud like foot stomping.

    Concert halls same rules as theater but only if the music is classical or not sing along type. Music with everyone screaming the lyrics etc must be outdoor only.

    Also traditional turnstyles are a deal breaker obviously (fuck yeah they’re still using them in the subways!).

    Also we need mass retrofitting automatic restroom doors so door handle transmission is not an issue.

    THIS IS SCIENCE BASED COMMON SENSE. Blurring the difference between airborne and droplet transmission is a tactic used to justify a draconian lockdown. Defeat their tactics.

    If we didn’t have a hostile elite in charge then all buses subways trolleys skyrails etc would be CLOSED across the country. These environments are the perfect transmission vector everyone steadying themselves by grabbing surfaces (frequently stainless steel) that have been grabbed many times before by others.

    Airplanes MIGHT be treated same as the theater but it’s still a grabby environment so the cleaning between flights would have to be done right…. and I don’t have a solution for the airplane rest room.

    School closings are outright PROJECT FEAR. The powers that be (Bill Fucking Gates) will not tolerate the fact that a giant swath of the population (children) are out of harm’s way and therefore do not need a shitty Bill Gates vaccine. Therefore look for schools to be the last place for the shutdown psychos to retreat from.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    But if movie theaters reopened tomorrow by government decree, would Marvel Studios roll out the blockbuster they originally had planned for release on the first Monday in May? Or would they delay it anyway?
    , @Chrisnonymous
    I think the new "blurring" of droplet and airborne by aerosolization theory is sensible if not completely worked out. The difference between droplet and airborne spread never made sense since some large heavy particles like TB were airborne while smaller ones were not. It makes more sense that anything small is aerosolizable depending on context and factors like reproduction dynamics, reaction to humidity/temp, and required infectious dose affect probability.

    The droplet/airborne dichotomy was mostly useful for defining infection control standards and is still somewhat useful in that sense as your movie theater suggestions show. However, we should be aware of aerosolization opportunities too and define protocols for public bathroom use, etc too.
    , @Harry Baldwin
    Also we need mass retrofitting automatic restroom doors so door handle transmission is not an issue.

    “Most infections didn’t take place in supermarkets or restaurants,” Streeck said of his preliminary findings. In Heinsberg, his team of coronavirus detectives could find scant evidence of the virus being transmitted via the surfaces of door handles, smart phones or other objects.
     
    , @Hypnotoad666

    “Quiet audience” rules might be tried.
     
    Well, that would be plainly racist.
    , @anon
    “Quiet audience” rules might be tried. Also probably need a clapping substitute."

    And people used to make fun of jazz hands.
  5. A sensible proposal, therefore won’t be adopted.

  6. Depositing a Social Security check is a major risk factor.

    • Replies: @Squid
    Really? What about direct deposit? Asking for a geezer friend.
  7. @Anonymous
    GOVERNORS WHO KNOW THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DROPLET TRANSMISSION AND AIRBORNE TRANSMISSION CAN OPEN BUSINESSES ASAP

    Movie theaters and theaters of all types can be opened NOW with 1/ social distancing 2/ masks required 3/ disinfection of armrests before each show 4/ people with cough symptoms banned from entry. (15 min Abbot Labs nasal swab test booth outside the building is doable for permission to enter)

    "Quiet audience" rules might be tried. Also probably need a clapping substitute. Some sort of safe no-hands non-verbal way to applaud like foot stomping.

    Concert halls same rules as theater but only if the music is classical or not sing along type. Music with everyone screaming the lyrics etc must be outdoor only.

    Also traditional turnstyles are a deal breaker obviously (fuck yeah they're still using them in the subways!).

    Also we need mass retrofitting automatic restroom doors so door handle transmission is not an issue.

    THIS IS SCIENCE BASED COMMON SENSE. Blurring the difference between airborne and droplet transmission is a tactic used to justify a draconian lockdown. Defeat their tactics.

    If we didn't have a hostile elite in charge then all buses subways trolleys skyrails etc would be CLOSED across the country. These environments are the perfect transmission vector everyone steadying themselves by grabbing surfaces (frequently stainless steel) that have been grabbed many times before by others.

    Airplanes MIGHT be treated same as the theater but it's still a grabby environment so the cleaning between flights would have to be done right.... and I don't have a solution for the airplane rest room.

    School closings are outright PROJECT FEAR. The powers that be (Bill Fucking Gates) will not tolerate the fact that a giant swath of the population (children) are out of harm's way and therefore do not need a shitty Bill Gates vaccine. Therefore look for schools to be the last place for the shutdown psychos to retreat from.

    But if movie theaters reopened tomorrow by government decree, would Marvel Studios roll out the blockbuster they originally had planned for release on the first Monday in May? Or would they delay it anyway?

    • Replies: @FPD72
    It’s my understanding that movie theaters make most of their profit from concessions, which I don’t think would be very popular in the current environment. How does not touching your face fit with eating in a theater? Maybe theater owners would be willing to open for break-even Or a small loss so they could pay their employees.
  8. “This is fair and objective.”

    Lol yeah ok. Any sort of mandated restrictions on personal movement isn’t what I’d call fair and objective.

    Stay in your closet Steve. Some of us would like to get back to living our lives. THAT seems fair and objective.

    • Agree: botazefa
    • Replies: @Bardon Kaldian
    Any life in a modern society is, to a degree, unfree.

    When I think of it more: it has always been .....
  9. Most people don’t have obituaries anymore.

    The geographic, population density risk disparities >> the occupational ones. Reopening dentistry in Duluth is far safer than reopening jewelry stores in Manhattan.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    Most people don’t have obituaries anymore.
     
    Why don’t they?
  10. I never got why we can’t have a little socialism here to save our old people. Just give everyone checks so they don’t have to go outside. Things are only starting to slow down here, and if we let everyone out the infection rates will start soaring again. We can rev back up again when we have better treatments.

    I’m only early middle age, but I’m soft on oldies. This is one of the few cultures with practically no respect for the elderly.

    Hey, they’re disproportionately white. 😉

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    SFG, My 102 year old mother says Happy Easter.
    , @Sam Haysom
    And who pioneered that disdain for the elderly? The boomers. Nothing more exciting/ hilarious that a generation being hoisted with their own petard. Don’t ventilate anyone over forty, man.
  11. @AnotherDad
    Depositing a Social Security check is a major risk factor.

    Really? What about direct deposit? Asking for a geezer friend.

  12. Anonymous[291] • Disclaimer says:

    Re sun & vitamin D:

    The tv/radio guy Dr Oz says getting sun on your face is not enough exposure to trigger vit D production. He says you must expose the torso.

    I never heard this before. But now all of you bloggers have an excuse to go shirtless and constantly expose your disgusting fatbodies in public. Especially on the golf course. “Doctor’s orders.”

    I remember a few years back in the news there was a minor moral panic in some Asian country where the women were trying to get their men to NOT go topless all the time. The sight of so many disgusting fatbodies was demoralizing the women apparently. But once again it was bitchez talking shit. Those shirtless slobs were metabolizing gigantic amounts of vit D and staying out of the hospital like supermen.

    DOWN WITH THE MATRIARCHY

    • Replies: @anon
    I never heard this before. But now all of you bloggers have an excuse to go shirtless and constantly expose your disgusting fatbodies in public. Especially on the golf course. “Doctor’s orders.”

    Could be worse. See pic.

    https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/czech-nudists-virus-police/index.html
    , @anon
    With testosterone the protocol for sun exposure is: Face, arms and legs, not much, front of torso, better, back much better, genital area about 200% better than back.
    Olympic athletes in ancient Greece trained nude on the beach to optimise Test production.
    Vitamin D production may work similarly.
  13. @MikeatMikedotMike
    "This is fair and objective."

    Lol yeah ok. Any sort of mandated restrictions on personal movement isn't what I'd call fair and objective.

    Stay in your closet Steve. Some of us would like to get back to living our lives. THAT seems fair and objective.

    Any life in a modern society is, to a degree, unfree.

    When I think of it more: it has always been …..

  14. Anonymous[530] • Disclaimer says:

    Wow, America has just broken two new records: it surpassed Italy to become the country with the largest number of victims, and over 2,000 Americans died in the last 24 hours.

    Best case scenario when this is over: expect a million dead Americans by Summer. The numbers of deaths are still rising, and even when they start to decline, there will still be quadruple-digit deaths daily for several more weeks and up to three months. Worst case scenario: 4-5% of the entire U.S population will die, at 15-20 million dead. This is unlikely, but 1-5 million deaths by July is a very real possibility. While the death rate is “only” 2-4% overall, it is up to 10% for those over 65, and 51% of people that go into I.C.Us for SARS-COVID2 die.

    This is a tragedy of colossal proportions. This is America’s Hiroshima and Nagasaki moments, in reverse. It is crazy to watch the World’s greatest superpower being brought to it’s knees by the smallest of living creatures, and the supposed superpower being completely impotent to stop it. Quite a lesson in humility, huh?

    • Disagree: Farenheit
    • Replies: @Bleuteaux
    So the Chinese trolls from Zerohedge's comment section are here now?
    , @Achmed E. Newman
    2,000 Americans died in a 24-hour period?!! What about the day before? With 2,800,000 Americans dying each year, give or take a couple hundred thousand (and a few more on leap years) that works out to over 7,500 a day average.

    If we don't know how many of these 2,000 people died with the Kung Flu, but not of the Kung Flu, this is likely an upper bound. 25% more deaths a day over some period of time is not peanuts, but this won't last.

    Epic, man! Nagasaki City!

    Numeracy - it's not just for breakfast anymore - get off the Intotainment, people, and think for yourselves.
    , @Joseph Doaks
    "It is crazy to watch the World’s greatest superpower being brought to it’s knees by the smallest of living creatures, and the supposed superpower being completely impotent to stop it. Quite a lesson in humility, huh?"

    Yes, it's crazy, but not a lesson in humility, I think instead that it's a lesson in current government ineptitude, much of which, I suspect is due to diversity replacing competence in government hiring and politicians pandering to the lowest common denominator.
    , @Anonymous

    and over 2,000 Americans died in the last 24 hours.
     
    Of coronavirus?
    , @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    "Best case scenario when this is over: expect a million dead Americans by Summer, This is a tragedy of colossal proportions. This is America’s Hiroshima and" etc.

    Is this a Ron Unz sock puppet? Hi, Ron!
    , @Jack D

    Worst case scenario: 4-5% of the entire U.S population will die, at 15-20 million dead.
     
    No, the worst case scenario is that 100% of Americans die from this disease but that's impossible and so is 20 million dead. The REALISTIC absolute worst case scenario based upon known case mortality rates would be 3 million dead of Wuhan Virus (1% of the population) but in a normal year 2.8 million people die and there is going to be a big overlap between those who will die of WuFlu and those who were going to die this year anyway, so maybe 1.5 million excess deaths as an absolute worse case scenario. Of those, probably 80% or more will be of people who were elderly and/or in ill health and were going to die, if not during 2020, then during the next few years anyway. While each death is a tragedy, having a bunch of people in nursing homes and a bunch of asthmatic, diabetic, obese ghetto dwellers pass away is not a society ending event.

    Their deaths would actually leave us with a stronger, more youthful and vital, and slightly less crowded society. America was really getting to be an (unhealthy, obese and) geriatric society - we saw this everywhere - a bunch of senior citizen Presidential candidates verging on senility, "sexy" Superbowl entertainers who are post-menopausal women, etc. This is not something you would see in any healthy or normal society. Not to mention (and I know we're not supposed to mention anything as trivial as the economy) that losing a bunch of non-productive elders is going to be good for pension systems, cut future health care costs, etc. "OK, Boomer" is obnoxious but it reflects a sentiment that older Americans are just not clearing the stage for the next generations in a way that is normal and maybe Corona-chan has to give them a little shove. I for one would be willing to face this epidemic if it meant not having to hear so many ads for prescription drugs on TV. Maybe "nature" has taken notice of our current untenable situation and is making some corrections for us? Now it's man's job to struggle against nature and disease, but sometimes nature has the upper hand and wins anyway.

    OTOH, destroying our entire economy IS a potentially society ending event (at least our society as we know it). In order to save the village, we must destroy it!

    , @anon
    This is utter nonsense: '1-5 million deaths by July is a very real possibility'. That would require tens of thousands of Covid deaths PER DAY. I would say we would need to redouble our efforts, but we would actually need to increase our efforts to get to the predicted millions of dead 10- to 50-fold. Unless machine-gunning or napalm-bombing entire neighborhoods suspected of Covid infections is an option, I don't see how it's possible by July, or ever.

    My spouse is a "frontline" physician also involved in management in a major hospital network in a major Northeastern metropolitan area (not NYC). So I know what the situation is. The hospitals are NOT being overwhelmed and likely won't be overwhelmed, during this predicted peak. While part of this is due to endless preparation, finding additional beds and resources, and increased call by critical care physicians and nurses, there has not been that much to do for the past month in terms of keeping COVID patients alive. There is an increased number of critically ill patients with COVID in ICUs, slowly growing, and they are mostly very old, very sick, or very obese - or all three. There is a stacking effect, because once they go on the ventilator, most stay on it for 2 weeks. Many of them die regardless, because they were on death's door already, COVID or not.

    I wish Trump had more healthy skepticism and listened less to the likes of Fauci who, I suspect, has ulterior motives. In his interview with Foxnews a couple of days, Fauci said he was not paying any attention to COVID models, even though this scaremongering was based almost entirely on modeling projections. Which, of course, have turned out to be way off.

    Also, viruses, this iteration of Corona included, are not 'alive' by most any definition. Not that it makes a difference in this case, but it just shows your level of understanding of what's going on.
  15. “Occupation” may not tell the whole story. Lawyer for example. Public Defender v. Patent Attorney or your earlier example of shoe salesman. Air Jordans or Ferragamo? I’m not saying it ‘can’t be done’ but you need to do some big data analysis to refine it beyond a headline occupation.

    Fortunately, Trump may get some help from Europe as Denmark, Germany and other European countries are going to start their own loosening up soon. We can see what is working and what is not.

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    Yes, you are correct. Also, for example, my brother's shop has adopted stringent guidelines for customer interaction. He's not in restaurants, but his shop is now the Seinfeld Food Nazi in his field. How could you investigate transmission potential by grouping his shop with others that didn't adopt the same policies?
    , @Reg Cæsar

    Fortunately, Trump may get some help from Europe as Denmark, Germany and other European countries are going to start their own loosening up soon. We can see what is working and what is not.
     
    We stopped at a little bakery on an Amish farm today. They seemed completely oblivious to any -demic, pan-, epi-, or what-not. At least there was little talking. The farmer's wife is deaf, and mine fluent in ASL. We got a nice haul of goodies for Easter brunch.

    Of course it was all in cash. Pre-pandemic? Heck, it was pre-ATM, even pre-Diners Club.
  16. By the time we finished running this analysis, and by the time the politicians finished arguing over what it all meant, we would all be dead of old age anyway, and our descendants would be singing bitter songs about our memory while eating pan-fried sewer rat in the ruins of some old shopping mall.

    A plan like this provides perfect Deep State raison d’être—endless emergency status, endless make-work, limitless authority to interfere in anything, anywhere, for any purpose—and there is no chance that the rollout could be enforced broadly enough as to be distinguishable from a simple easing of all restrictions.

    This is far, far too cute. Society is not an analog computer for running sociological simulations on. It has to move forward or it will die.

  17. Anonymous[412] • Disclaimer says:

    We should look at infection / hospitalization / and death rates by occupation. If people in your type of work were seldom infected or hospitalized or dying, then you should get back to work. In contrast, if your type of worker has been dying like flies, well, you need serious plans to upgrade your activities to make them safer.

    This is hugely overdetermined, Steve. What is driving infection rates is culture, residential circumstances, and means of transportation (in that order), not people’s occupations.

    Surprised you are overlooking all the confounding variables.

    • Agree: Patrick Sullivan
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    That's what multiple regression is for.
    , @animalogic
    "This is hugely overdetermined, Steve. What is driving infection rates is culture, residential circumstances, and means of transportation (in that order), not people’s occupations."
    Dont disagree with your catagories, but still think occupation has a place. (those subway deaths/infections are reflected in UK figures for bus/train etc employees.)
  18. Sure, I love your strategy. And based on it I propose to quarantine doctors. For a long time. Say 100 years.

  19. Anonymous[412] • Disclaimer says:
    @Patrick Sullivan
    Most people don't have obituaries anymore.

    The geographic, population density risk disparities >> the occupational ones. Reopening dentistry in Duluth is far safer than reopening jewelry stores in Manhattan.

    Most people don’t have obituaries anymore.

    Why don’t they?

    • Replies: @Patrick Sullivan
    The money is ridiculous. We put one in locally for my family member in 2012 and it was low four figures. It was long, but like 500 words long, not War & Piece. We copied an abbreviated version to the NYT and it was almost twice that. And most people don't need newspapers for that anymore anyway. They can get the gist from social media postings for free. The newspaper obits still exist for the 80+ crowd.
  20. @Anonymous
    Wow, America has just broken two new records: it surpassed Italy to become the country with the largest number of victims, and over 2,000 Americans died in the last 24 hours.

    Best case scenario when this is over: expect a million dead Americans by Summer. The numbers of deaths are still rising, and even when they start to decline, there will still be quadruple-digit deaths daily for several more weeks and up to three months. Worst case scenario: 4-5% of the entire U.S population will die, at 15-20 million dead. This is unlikely, but 1-5 million deaths by July is a very real possibility. While the death rate is "only" 2-4% overall, it is up to 10% for those over 65, and 51% of people that go into I.C.Us for SARS-COVID2 die.

    This is a tragedy of colossal proportions. This is America's Hiroshima and Nagasaki moments, in reverse. It is crazy to watch the World's greatest superpower being brought to it's knees by the smallest of living creatures, and the supposed superpower being completely impotent to stop it. Quite a lesson in humility, huh?

    https://youtu.be/iejGYFpTGlg

    So the Chinese trolls from Zerohedge’s comment section are here now?

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    Gold, Bitchez!
    , @anonymous jew
    Or Tiny Duck with a different strategy and spell check
    , @animalogic
    Zerohedge comments ? Oh, god help us. A greater cesspit of vicious invective & ill-considered jabber is hard to find.
  21. So, look at the obituaries for New York City in March-April 2020…

    Look where? There won’t be 10,000 obits in the three big dailies. Funeral homes have their memorial pages. It would take a crew of researchers some time to go through them all. Many might not be in English, or have such pages at all.

    The local papers in Walla Walla and Itta Bena might cover every local demise. But there are eight million stories in the Naked City.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naked_Cowboy

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonny_Porkpie

  22. @Anonymous

    We should look at infection / hospitalization / and death rates by occupation. If people in your type of work were seldom infected or hospitalized or dying, then you should get back to work. In contrast, if your type of worker has been dying like flies, well, you need serious plans to upgrade your activities to make them safer.
     
    This is hugely overdetermined, Steve. What is driving infection rates is culture, residential circumstances, and means of transportation (in that order), not people’s occupations.

    Surprised you are overlooking all the confounding variables.

    That’s what multiple regression is for.

  23. @Anonymous
    Wow, America has just broken two new records: it surpassed Italy to become the country with the largest number of victims, and over 2,000 Americans died in the last 24 hours.

    Best case scenario when this is over: expect a million dead Americans by Summer. The numbers of deaths are still rising, and even when they start to decline, there will still be quadruple-digit deaths daily for several more weeks and up to three months. Worst case scenario: 4-5% of the entire U.S population will die, at 15-20 million dead. This is unlikely, but 1-5 million deaths by July is a very real possibility. While the death rate is "only" 2-4% overall, it is up to 10% for those over 65, and 51% of people that go into I.C.Us for SARS-COVID2 die.

    This is a tragedy of colossal proportions. This is America's Hiroshima and Nagasaki moments, in reverse. It is crazy to watch the World's greatest superpower being brought to it's knees by the smallest of living creatures, and the supposed superpower being completely impotent to stop it. Quite a lesson in humility, huh?

    https://youtu.be/iejGYFpTGlg

    2,000 Americans died in a 24-hour period?!! What about the day before? With 2,800,000 Americans dying each year, give or take a couple hundred thousand (and a few more on leap years) that works out to over 7,500 a day average.

    If we don’t know how many of these 2,000 people died with the Kung Flu, but not of the Kung Flu, this is likely an upper bound. 25% more deaths a day over some period of time is not peanuts, but this won’t last.

    Epic, man! Nagasaki City!

    Numeracy – it’s not just for breakfast anymore – get off the Intotainment, people, and think for yourselves.

    • Agree: Redneck farmer
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    This is one of the dumbest posts ever...going by your logic, then we should do nothing to stop wars, pandemics and weather disasters, since people will die one day anyway. In fact, the diseases and disabilities of old age kill 100,000 people each day, which is more than all infectious diseases combined. Does this mean that an "extra" 100,000-10,000,000 people dying from a pandemic doesn't matter? Because this is what you are saying.

    How many people died in the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki? I don't know, and I don't feel like fact checking now, but it can't be more than two or three times what the SARS2--COVID has already killed in America. Yes, the coronavirus is well on it's way to have atomic-bomb levels of casualties in America.
  24. @Bleuteaux
    So the Chinese trolls from Zerohedge's comment section are here now?

    Gold, Bitchez!

  25. @Anonymous

    Most people don’t have obituaries anymore.
     
    Why don’t they?

    The money is ridiculous. We put one in locally for my family member in 2012 and it was low four figures. It was long, but like 500 words long, not War & Piece. We copied an abbreviated version to the NYT and it was almost twice that. And most people don’t need newspapers for that anymore anyway. They can get the gist from social media postings for free. The newspaper obits still exist for the 80+ crowd.

    • Agree: Jim Don Bob
    • Replies: @Anonymous

    The money is ridiculous. We put one in locally for my family member in 2012 and it was low four figures. It was long, but like 500 words long, not War & Piece. We copied an abbreviated version to the NYT and it was almost twice that. And most people don’t need newspapers for that anymore anyway. They can get the gist from social media postings for free. The newspaper obits still exist for the 80+ crowd.
     
    Thank you.
  26. I think the 1st industry to be opened up ought to be one with natural social distancing:

    • Replies: @animalogic
    In Aust' the NRL (national rugby league) has already (apparently) got permission for a late May reopening of its season.(The practicalities of reopening etc are still a bit hazy -- who would believe it ?)
    Its all about "priorities" apparently.
    (Aussie Rules games from years ago are regularly replayed now on TV and radio -- radio... that does my head in a bit....).
  27. @SFG
    I never got why we can't have a little socialism here to save our old people. Just give everyone checks so they don't have to go outside. Things are only starting to slow down here, and if we let everyone out the infection rates will start soaring again. We can rev back up again when we have better treatments.

    I'm only early middle age, but I'm soft on oldies. This is one of the few cultures with practically no respect for the elderly.

    Hey, they're disproportionately white. ;)

    SFG, My 102 year old mother says Happy Easter.

  28. @Bleuteaux
    So the Chinese trolls from Zerohedge's comment section are here now?

    Or Tiny Duck with a different strategy and spell check

  29. Too many variables to consider in such a short time.

  30. @Anonymous
    Wow, America has just broken two new records: it surpassed Italy to become the country with the largest number of victims, and over 2,000 Americans died in the last 24 hours.

    Best case scenario when this is over: expect a million dead Americans by Summer. The numbers of deaths are still rising, and even when they start to decline, there will still be quadruple-digit deaths daily for several more weeks and up to three months. Worst case scenario: 4-5% of the entire U.S population will die, at 15-20 million dead. This is unlikely, but 1-5 million deaths by July is a very real possibility. While the death rate is "only" 2-4% overall, it is up to 10% for those over 65, and 51% of people that go into I.C.Us for SARS-COVID2 die.

    This is a tragedy of colossal proportions. This is America's Hiroshima and Nagasaki moments, in reverse. It is crazy to watch the World's greatest superpower being brought to it's knees by the smallest of living creatures, and the supposed superpower being completely impotent to stop it. Quite a lesson in humility, huh?

    https://youtu.be/iejGYFpTGlg

    “It is crazy to watch the World’s greatest superpower being brought to it’s knees by the smallest of living creatures, and the supposed superpower being completely impotent to stop it. Quite a lesson in humility, huh?”

    Yes, it’s crazy, but not a lesson in humility, I think instead that it’s a lesson in current government ineptitude, much of which, I suspect is due to diversity replacing competence in government hiring and politicians pandering to the lowest common denominator.

    • Agree: Dtbb
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Maybe, but the government, especially at the federal level, is full of Ivy League graduates. Maybe some of them who are black got into Harvard and Yale on Affirmative Action, but even with AA Harvard and Yale are pretty tough colleges to get into, so I am assuming that incompetence has little to do with it.

    No, I think the failure has to do with the psychology of Americans. Americans are a freedom-loving poeople that traditionally distrusts government and don't like to be bossed around. China controlled it's pandemic with extremely Draconian social measures that Americans would never tolerate. It's one thing to be "asked" to wear a mask in public, and to please, please, only go to out to buy groceries and medication. A completely different thing is when the goverment *tells* you to stay in your house or you will get beaten by the cops, and you cannot go out for anything. That is simply intolerable in America.

    The other reason for why so many deaths in America is because of the extremely Darwinian type of capitalist Society that exists in America. Over 80% of Americans have no health insurance of any kind. To make matters worse, medical services and medicine in America cost several times more than in any other developed country. A single day of stay at a hospital in America can cost you $40,000, and much more if it is at an I.C.U. In Europe and East Asia, medical care is seen as a human right, since the accomplishments of medical science are seen as a conquest of the human race that should be shared by all, and not a conquest of rich men that only rich men should benefit from. In fact, most rich men have not and would never be able to make any contributions to medicine. But, in America, medicine is a seen as a commericial "service" that one should buy in the marketplace. Hence, even upper middle-class people in America get financially ruined if they have someone in the family that requires protracted hospital stay.

    The combination of a freedom-loving culture where true quarantine is unacceptable with extreme savage capitalism that leave smost people uninsured and with little access to medicine is a recipe for a total disaster in a pandemic.

    Ultimately, Americans are paying the price for their proclivities.
  31. @Steve Sailer
    But if movie theaters reopened tomorrow by government decree, would Marvel Studios roll out the blockbuster they originally had planned for release on the first Monday in May? Or would they delay it anyway?

    It’s my understanding that movie theaters make most of their profit from concessions, which I don’t think would be very popular in the current environment. How does not touching your face fit with eating in a theater? Maybe theater owners would be willing to open for break-even Or a small loss so they could pay their employees.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Some things I like, such as going to the movies and going to cheap operas, are probably not coming back shortly. Others, like playing golf and walking on the beach, sound much more promising.

    But let's get data to figure out if my intuitions are reasonable or not.

    , @Jim Don Bob
    The company that owns AMC theaters just had the rating on their $5 Billion of debt downgraded to CCC which means "unlikely to continue as a going concern". Attendance was down 10% in 2019 versus 2018.
  32. Anonymous[159] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous
    Wow, America has just broken two new records: it surpassed Italy to become the country with the largest number of victims, and over 2,000 Americans died in the last 24 hours.

    Best case scenario when this is over: expect a million dead Americans by Summer. The numbers of deaths are still rising, and even when they start to decline, there will still be quadruple-digit deaths daily for several more weeks and up to three months. Worst case scenario: 4-5% of the entire U.S population will die, at 15-20 million dead. This is unlikely, but 1-5 million deaths by July is a very real possibility. While the death rate is "only" 2-4% overall, it is up to 10% for those over 65, and 51% of people that go into I.C.Us for SARS-COVID2 die.

    This is a tragedy of colossal proportions. This is America's Hiroshima and Nagasaki moments, in reverse. It is crazy to watch the World's greatest superpower being brought to it's knees by the smallest of living creatures, and the supposed superpower being completely impotent to stop it. Quite a lesson in humility, huh?

    https://youtu.be/iejGYFpTGlg

    and over 2,000 Americans died in the last 24 hours.

    Of coronavirus?

  33. I defy you to find cause of death from obits.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    You don't need to find cause of death from the obits. Just count how many different types of workers died in New York City from, say, March 1 to April 11 vs. how many of each type died in the average March 1 to April 11 over the last decade or whatever.
  34. @SFG
    I never got why we can't have a little socialism here to save our old people. Just give everyone checks so they don't have to go outside. Things are only starting to slow down here, and if we let everyone out the infection rates will start soaring again. We can rev back up again when we have better treatments.

    I'm only early middle age, but I'm soft on oldies. This is one of the few cultures with practically no respect for the elderly.

    Hey, they're disproportionately white. ;)

    And who pioneered that disdain for the elderly? The boomers. Nothing more exciting/ hilarious that a generation being hoisted with their own petard. Don’t ventilate anyone over forty, man.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    And who pioneered that disdain for the elderly?
     
    GrouchoMarx. WC Fields. Meredith Willson. Jonathan Winters.


    Most of all, this guy:


    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/EU2qtZf5Tj4/hqdefault.jpg
  35. @Dtbb
    I defy you to find cause of death from obits.

    You don’t need to find cause of death from the obits. Just count how many different types of workers died in New York City from, say, March 1 to April 11 vs. how many of each type died in the average March 1 to April 11 over the last decade or whatever.

  36. @FPD72
    It’s my understanding that movie theaters make most of their profit from concessions, which I don’t think would be very popular in the current environment. How does not touching your face fit with eating in a theater? Maybe theater owners would be willing to open for break-even Or a small loss so they could pay their employees.

    Some things I like, such as going to the movies and going to cheap operas, are probably not coming back shortly. Others, like playing golf and walking on the beach, sound much more promising.

    But let’s get data to figure out if my intuitions are reasonable or not.

  37. Anon[217] • Disclaimer says:

    New York City now has hundreds of home deaths of people who are not tested for the coronavirus (they gave up), and are not included in the death statistics for Covid. Only twenty a day died at home in the city prior to coronavirus. How to treat these deaths: They are at least 90 percent likely to have been killed by Covid.

    How many people get obituaries? Is that still a thing among ordinary citizens? There are a bunch of websites like Memories.net that might pick up people missed in obits, since I think any acquaintance can add somebody.

    For this kind of a project to work it should really be crowdsourced, but somebody would have to be in charge to specify the database fields and put up a data entry website that would do basic duplicate checks on names, media, and date ranges, or to have sources listed for dibs. This is also the sort of online job that you can get done really cheaply with Mechanical Turk or low-paid English language speakers in the Philippines or India via UpWork. I once hired Turkers to enter book publication data from books on their bookshelves, and not knowing the proper pay rate I really lowballed the opening rate … and never had to raise it. People will work for peanuts online. You can even write the dupe detection check to allow double entries by different workers to detect fraud and accuracy, and the cost is still affordable.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    New York City now has hundreds of home deaths of people who are not tested for the coronavirus (they gave up), and are not included in the death statistics for Covid. Only twenty a day died at home in the city prior to coronavirus.
     
    Per day? How many per day now versus how many per day at peak of seasonal flu?
  38. @Anonymous
    GOVERNORS WHO KNOW THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DROPLET TRANSMISSION AND AIRBORNE TRANSMISSION CAN OPEN BUSINESSES ASAP

    Movie theaters and theaters of all types can be opened NOW with 1/ social distancing 2/ masks required 3/ disinfection of armrests before each show 4/ people with cough symptoms banned from entry. (15 min Abbot Labs nasal swab test booth outside the building is doable for permission to enter)

    "Quiet audience" rules might be tried. Also probably need a clapping substitute. Some sort of safe no-hands non-verbal way to applaud like foot stomping.

    Concert halls same rules as theater but only if the music is classical or not sing along type. Music with everyone screaming the lyrics etc must be outdoor only.

    Also traditional turnstyles are a deal breaker obviously (fuck yeah they're still using them in the subways!).

    Also we need mass retrofitting automatic restroom doors so door handle transmission is not an issue.

    THIS IS SCIENCE BASED COMMON SENSE. Blurring the difference between airborne and droplet transmission is a tactic used to justify a draconian lockdown. Defeat their tactics.

    If we didn't have a hostile elite in charge then all buses subways trolleys skyrails etc would be CLOSED across the country. These environments are the perfect transmission vector everyone steadying themselves by grabbing surfaces (frequently stainless steel) that have been grabbed many times before by others.

    Airplanes MIGHT be treated same as the theater but it's still a grabby environment so the cleaning between flights would have to be done right.... and I don't have a solution for the airplane rest room.

    School closings are outright PROJECT FEAR. The powers that be (Bill Fucking Gates) will not tolerate the fact that a giant swath of the population (children) are out of harm's way and therefore do not need a shitty Bill Gates vaccine. Therefore look for schools to be the last place for the shutdown psychos to retreat from.

    I think the new “blurring” of droplet and airborne by aerosolization theory is sensible if not completely worked out. The difference between droplet and airborne spread never made sense since some large heavy particles like TB were airborne while smaller ones were not. It makes more sense that anything small is aerosolizable depending on context and factors like reproduction dynamics, reaction to humidity/temp, and required infectious dose affect probability.

    The droplet/airborne dichotomy was mostly useful for defining infection control standards and is still somewhat useful in that sense as your movie theater suggestions show. However, we should be aware of aerosolization opportunities too and define protocols for public bathroom use, etc too.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    and define protocols for public bathroom use, etc too.
     
    Such as what?
  39. @unit472
    "Occupation" may not tell the whole story. Lawyer for example. Public Defender v. Patent Attorney or your earlier example of shoe salesman. Air Jordans or Ferragamo? I'm not saying it 'can't be done' but you need to do some big data analysis to refine it beyond a headline occupation.

    Fortunately, Trump may get some help from Europe as Denmark, Germany and other European countries are going to start their own loosening up soon. We can see what is working and what is not.

    Yes, you are correct. Also, for example, my brother’s shop has adopted stringent guidelines for customer interaction. He’s not in restaurants, but his shop is now the Seinfeld Food Nazi in his field. How could you investigate transmission potential by grouping his shop with others that didn’t adopt the same policies?

  40. I’m going to reiterate my comment on superspreading from yesterday:
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/trumps-biggest-decision/#comment-3831482

    If superspreading is real and based on human or viral biology, its existence is probably incompatible with the idea of “safe” and “unsafe” jobs (unless you are talking about something like psychoanalyst that could be done by Bubble Boy), or at least incompatible with the kind of research you are suggesting.

    Rather than looking for safe jobs, we should be looking for safe types of interactions and safe demographics.

    Also, we should be focusing less mental resources right now on stopping transmission than stopping cases from converting to the severe form. Maybe that’s a physiology/demographic issue, but we could also be looking at, eg, reducing initial infective dose, or “variolation”, or how stress, sleep, diet contribute, or whether cheap OTC treatments like zinc+green tea could be effective, or pre-ICU hospital treatments like cold immersion therapy.

    If we could decrease the conversion of cases to severe form of illness, then we wouldn’t have to worry about transmission and everyone could go back to work and we’d have herd immunity in a couple months.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Is there evidence that a lower percentage of cases are converting to severe forms?

    ICU usage is way under the forecasts from a month ago. Is that because infections are way under the forecast or because a smaller percentage of infections are progressing to hospitalization and ICU levels? Or both?

    Does anybody have numbers on hydroxychloroquine usage? Is it high enough to be making a dent in ICU usage?

  41. @Chrisnonymous
    I'm going to reiterate my comment on superspreading from yesterday:
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/trumps-biggest-decision/#comment-3831482

    If superspreading is real and based on human or viral biology, its existence is probably incompatible with the idea of "safe" and "unsafe" jobs (unless you are talking about something like psychoanalyst that could be done by Bubble Boy), or at least incompatible with the kind of research you are suggesting.

    Rather than looking for safe jobs, we should be looking for safe types of interactions and safe demographics.

    Also, we should be focusing less mental resources right now on stopping transmission than stopping cases from converting to the severe form. Maybe that's a physiology/demographic issue, but we could also be looking at, eg, reducing initial infective dose, or "variolation", or how stress, sleep, diet contribute, or whether cheap OTC treatments like zinc+green tea could be effective, or pre-ICU hospital treatments like cold immersion therapy.

    If we could decrease the conversion of cases to severe form of illness, then we wouldn't have to worry about transmission and everyone could go back to work and we'd have herd immunity in a couple months.

    Is there evidence that a lower percentage of cases are converting to severe forms?

    ICU usage is way under the forecasts from a month ago. Is that because infections are way under the forecast or because a smaller percentage of infections are progressing to hospitalization and ICU levels? Or both?

    Does anybody have numbers on hydroxychloroquine usage? Is it high enough to be making a dent in ICU usage?

    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666
    My cynicism deepens. I think the authorities currently calling the shots have no interest in releasing any transparent or specific data that might tend to lessen the useful fear. Private entities have no access to the key public health data necessary to calculate true infection rates, death/serious illness rates, or the effectiveness of hydrochloroquine. Without the data they can only nibble around the edges and speculate.

    The whole lock down was motivated by the "flatten the curve" mantra. And "flatten the curve" was based entirely on the theory that the healthcare system would be overwhelmed otherwise. But that premise seems to be empirically collapsing based on the minimal need for ICU treatment.

    We may have to look to Sweden as the controlled experiment in how to proceed. The jury is still out, but their program of doing next to nothing seems to be working fine. https://www.google.com/search?q=sweden+coronavirus+deaths&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS777US777&oq=Sweden+coronavirus+&aqs=chrome.3.69i57j0l

    They figured out that "flattening the curve" also means "lengthening the curve," which merely delays herd immunity and thus may do more harm than good. (That, of course, was the UK's view before they buckled to the fear induced by the since-repudiated Imperial College Study.)
    , @PiltdownMan

    Does anybody have numbers on hydroxychloroquine usage? Is it high enough to be making a dent in ICU usage?
     
    This article from the last couple of days says that New York is trying hydroxychloroquine on 1,500 patients. It also reports that we've received a shipment of 3.5 million tablets (presumably doses) of hydroxychloroquine from India, as well as 9 tons of feedstock chemicals to manufacture it here.

    That suggests that hydroxychloroquine is being, or is going to be, tried out on a larger scale and/or that there is already significant demand from doctors in the field to try it out, as an empirical approach to cure.

    https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/hydroxychloroquine-consignment-from-india-arrives-in-us/ar-BB12v0un

    , @anon
    hydroxychloroquine has been used frequently.

    Really, the justification is based on NYC hospital fragility. I haven't dug into the numbers but the deaths will go down since hospital admissions are already down in NY.

    The lack of surge capacity in hospitals is terrifying to elites. Raw number of deaths could be ignored otherwise.

    Look, I just saw a traffic jam of late model cars lining up at a food bank in Texas. All of them were newer than my vintage asian fleet. Bad optics. If they restart May 1, this will be an expense paid staycation. If it drags out, not so much.

    The 100,000 estimate was a necessary answer. It had to be higher than seasonal flu. It has to be achievable. It was the lowest number out of the earlier model estimates, so it can be pitched as a victory. No one numerate should be all that panicked by it.

    The trick is to work backwards.

    Trump will have 80,000 deaths for any summer flare ups. Next week will start to pressure Fauci and Debra Birx. They got what they demanded, and they got their Mulligan on just how horribly they performed during round one. They claimed lack of data, and by May 1 they either have it or own the fact they couldn't get it. Get real, there is never enough data.
    , @Paco Wové
    Percent of hospital/ICU resources used seems like another criterion that could be used to determine whether or not to relax restrictions. After all, that's what "flattening the curve" was all about, right? Making sure health care resources are not overwhelmed? Therefore, if your hospitalization rate is below some cutoff, start easing restrictions and see what happens. If utilization creeps up, stop easing restrictions or reverse them. If your area's hospitalization rate is above this cutoff, sorry, you'll need to get it down before you can start easing up.
  42. Iceland goes out and tests 10% of its entire population. They find that half of those with Covid-19 show no symptoms at all.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/iceland-finds-that-half-its-citizens-with-coronavirus-have-shown-no-symptoms-2020-04-10

  43. Bernie loved Sweden & Denmark. Sweden has decided to do NOTHING. So, like I have said, for some years, we do things differently in the North Country. Sweden is gonna win! – in the first time in like, 370+ years. They don’t have a true army, but their people have shown the world that they can walk “into the battle of Corona..,” and all that bs: Bioweapon, we would be all flat on our backs if the bad guys had been more stealth, more unified – they fucked up! hahaa

    BTW, korona virus is a Bioweapon and we need to parse which country/organization did this

  44. Anonymous[401] • Disclaimer says:
    @Patrick Sullivan
    The money is ridiculous. We put one in locally for my family member in 2012 and it was low four figures. It was long, but like 500 words long, not War & Piece. We copied an abbreviated version to the NYT and it was almost twice that. And most people don't need newspapers for that anymore anyway. They can get the gist from social media postings for free. The newspaper obits still exist for the 80+ crowd.

    The money is ridiculous. We put one in locally for my family member in 2012 and it was low four figures. It was long, but like 500 words long, not War & Piece. We copied an abbreviated version to the NYT and it was almost twice that. And most people don’t need newspapers for that anymore anyway. They can get the gist from social media postings for free. The newspaper obits still exist for the 80+ crowd.

    Thank you.

  45. Anonymous[401] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anon
    New York City now has hundreds of home deaths of people who are not tested for the coronavirus (they gave up), and are not included in the death statistics for Covid. Only twenty a day died at home in the city prior to coronavirus. How to treat these deaths: They are at least 90 percent likely to have been killed by Covid.

    How many people get obituaries? Is that still a thing among ordinary citizens? There are a bunch of websites like Memories.net that might pick up people missed in obits, since I think any acquaintance can add somebody.

    For this kind of a project to work it should really be crowdsourced, but somebody would have to be in charge to specify the database fields and put up a data entry website that would do basic duplicate checks on names, media, and date ranges, or to have sources listed for dibs. This is also the sort of online job that you can get done really cheaply with Mechanical Turk or low-paid English language speakers in the Philippines or India via UpWork. I once hired Turkers to enter book publication data from books on their bookshelves, and not knowing the proper pay rate I really lowballed the opening rate ... and never had to raise it. People will work for peanuts online. You can even write the dupe detection check to allow double entries by different workers to detect fraud and accuracy, and the cost is still affordable.

    New York City now has hundreds of home deaths of people who are not tested for the coronavirus (they gave up), and are not included in the death statistics for Covid. Only twenty a day died at home in the city prior to coronavirus.

    Per day? How many per day now versus how many per day at peak of seasonal flu?

  46. @Anonymous
    Re sun & vitamin D:

    The tv/radio guy Dr Oz says getting sun on your face is not enough exposure to trigger vit D production. He says you must expose the torso.

    I never heard this before. But now all of you bloggers have an excuse to go shirtless and constantly expose your disgusting fatbodies in public. Especially on the golf course. "Doctor's orders."

    I remember a few years back in the news there was a minor moral panic in some Asian country where the women were trying to get their men to NOT go topless all the time. The sight of so many disgusting fatbodies was demoralizing the women apparently. But once again it was bitchez talking shit. Those shirtless slobs were metabolizing gigantic amounts of vit D and staying out of the hospital like supermen.

    DOWN WITH THE MATRIARCHY

    I never heard this before. But now all of you bloggers have an excuse to go shirtless and constantly expose your disgusting fatbodies in public. Especially on the golf course. “Doctor’s orders.”

    Could be worse. See pic.

    https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/czech-nudists-virus-police/index.html

  47. “We should look at infection / hospitalization / and death rates by occupation.”

    Most kungflu decedents were retired. If they had any occupation to speak of, it was that of terminal patient.

    So, you retired oldsters, go back to work!

    In a 600-word essay, ‘should’ used five times.

    Diagnosis: boomer.

  48. A Plan for Intelligently Reopening the Economy Using Obituary Data

    The Motherload of Coronavirus Conspiracy Resources – Links Exposing the Plandemic Fraud

    It’s a hoax, shutting down the economy is part of the plan.

  49. @Sam Haysom
    And who pioneered that disdain for the elderly? The boomers. Nothing more exciting/ hilarious that a generation being hoisted with their own petard. Don’t ventilate anyone over forty, man.

    And who pioneered that disdain for the elderly?

    GrouchoMarx. WC Fields. Meredith Willson. Jonathan Winters.

    Most of all, this guy:

  50. @Anonymous
    Wow, America has just broken two new records: it surpassed Italy to become the country with the largest number of victims, and over 2,000 Americans died in the last 24 hours.

    Best case scenario when this is over: expect a million dead Americans by Summer. The numbers of deaths are still rising, and even when they start to decline, there will still be quadruple-digit deaths daily for several more weeks and up to three months. Worst case scenario: 4-5% of the entire U.S population will die, at 15-20 million dead. This is unlikely, but 1-5 million deaths by July is a very real possibility. While the death rate is "only" 2-4% overall, it is up to 10% for those over 65, and 51% of people that go into I.C.Us for SARS-COVID2 die.

    This is a tragedy of colossal proportions. This is America's Hiroshima and Nagasaki moments, in reverse. It is crazy to watch the World's greatest superpower being brought to it's knees by the smallest of living creatures, and the supposed superpower being completely impotent to stop it. Quite a lesson in humility, huh?

    https://youtu.be/iejGYFpTGlg

    “Best case scenario when this is over: expect a million dead Americans by Summer, This is a tragedy of colossal proportions. This is America’s Hiroshima and” etc.

    Is this a Ron Unz sock puppet? Hi, Ron!

  51. @Anonymous
    GOVERNORS WHO KNOW THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DROPLET TRANSMISSION AND AIRBORNE TRANSMISSION CAN OPEN BUSINESSES ASAP

    Movie theaters and theaters of all types can be opened NOW with 1/ social distancing 2/ masks required 3/ disinfection of armrests before each show 4/ people with cough symptoms banned from entry. (15 min Abbot Labs nasal swab test booth outside the building is doable for permission to enter)

    "Quiet audience" rules might be tried. Also probably need a clapping substitute. Some sort of safe no-hands non-verbal way to applaud like foot stomping.

    Concert halls same rules as theater but only if the music is classical or not sing along type. Music with everyone screaming the lyrics etc must be outdoor only.

    Also traditional turnstyles are a deal breaker obviously (fuck yeah they're still using them in the subways!).

    Also we need mass retrofitting automatic restroom doors so door handle transmission is not an issue.

    THIS IS SCIENCE BASED COMMON SENSE. Blurring the difference between airborne and droplet transmission is a tactic used to justify a draconian lockdown. Defeat their tactics.

    If we didn't have a hostile elite in charge then all buses subways trolleys skyrails etc would be CLOSED across the country. These environments are the perfect transmission vector everyone steadying themselves by grabbing surfaces (frequently stainless steel) that have been grabbed many times before by others.

    Airplanes MIGHT be treated same as the theater but it's still a grabby environment so the cleaning between flights would have to be done right.... and I don't have a solution for the airplane rest room.

    School closings are outright PROJECT FEAR. The powers that be (Bill Fucking Gates) will not tolerate the fact that a giant swath of the population (children) are out of harm's way and therefore do not need a shitty Bill Gates vaccine. Therefore look for schools to be the last place for the shutdown psychos to retreat from.

    Also we need mass retrofitting automatic restroom doors so door handle transmission is not an issue.

    “Most infections didn’t take place in supermarkets or restaurants,” Streeck said of his preliminary findings. In Heinsberg, his team of coronavirus detectives could find scant evidence of the virus being transmitted via the surfaces of door handles, smart phones or other objects.

  52. @Anonymous
    GOVERNORS WHO KNOW THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DROPLET TRANSMISSION AND AIRBORNE TRANSMISSION CAN OPEN BUSINESSES ASAP

    Movie theaters and theaters of all types can be opened NOW with 1/ social distancing 2/ masks required 3/ disinfection of armrests before each show 4/ people with cough symptoms banned from entry. (15 min Abbot Labs nasal swab test booth outside the building is doable for permission to enter)

    "Quiet audience" rules might be tried. Also probably need a clapping substitute. Some sort of safe no-hands non-verbal way to applaud like foot stomping.

    Concert halls same rules as theater but only if the music is classical or not sing along type. Music with everyone screaming the lyrics etc must be outdoor only.

    Also traditional turnstyles are a deal breaker obviously (fuck yeah they're still using them in the subways!).

    Also we need mass retrofitting automatic restroom doors so door handle transmission is not an issue.

    THIS IS SCIENCE BASED COMMON SENSE. Blurring the difference between airborne and droplet transmission is a tactic used to justify a draconian lockdown. Defeat their tactics.

    If we didn't have a hostile elite in charge then all buses subways trolleys skyrails etc would be CLOSED across the country. These environments are the perfect transmission vector everyone steadying themselves by grabbing surfaces (frequently stainless steel) that have been grabbed many times before by others.

    Airplanes MIGHT be treated same as the theater but it's still a grabby environment so the cleaning between flights would have to be done right.... and I don't have a solution for the airplane rest room.

    School closings are outright PROJECT FEAR. The powers that be (Bill Fucking Gates) will not tolerate the fact that a giant swath of the population (children) are out of harm's way and therefore do not need a shitty Bill Gates vaccine. Therefore look for schools to be the last place for the shutdown psychos to retreat from.

    “Quiet audience” rules might be tried.

    Well, that would be plainly racist.

    • LOL: Harry Baldwin
  53. @Steve Sailer
    Is there evidence that a lower percentage of cases are converting to severe forms?

    ICU usage is way under the forecasts from a month ago. Is that because infections are way under the forecast or because a smaller percentage of infections are progressing to hospitalization and ICU levels? Or both?

    Does anybody have numbers on hydroxychloroquine usage? Is it high enough to be making a dent in ICU usage?

    My cynicism deepens. I think the authorities currently calling the shots have no interest in releasing any transparent or specific data that might tend to lessen the useful fear. Private entities have no access to the key public health data necessary to calculate true infection rates, death/serious illness rates, or the effectiveness of hydrochloroquine. Without the data they can only nibble around the edges and speculate.

    The whole lock down was motivated by the “flatten the curve” mantra. And “flatten the curve” was based entirely on the theory that the healthcare system would be overwhelmed otherwise. But that premise seems to be empirically collapsing based on the minimal need for ICU treatment.

    We may have to look to Sweden as the controlled experiment in how to proceed. The jury is still out, but their program of doing next to nothing seems to be working fine. https://www.google.com/search?q=sweden+coronavirus+deaths&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS777US777&oq=Sweden+coronavirus+&aqs=chrome.3.69i57j0l

    They figured out that “flattening the curve” also means “lengthening the curve,” which merely delays herd immunity and thus may do more harm than good. (That, of course, was the UK’s view before they buckled to the fear induced by the since-repudiated Imperial College Study.)

  54. Anonymous[401] • Disclaimer says:
    @Chrisnonymous
    I think the new "blurring" of droplet and airborne by aerosolization theory is sensible if not completely worked out. The difference between droplet and airborne spread never made sense since some large heavy particles like TB were airborne while smaller ones were not. It makes more sense that anything small is aerosolizable depending on context and factors like reproduction dynamics, reaction to humidity/temp, and required infectious dose affect probability.

    The droplet/airborne dichotomy was mostly useful for defining infection control standards and is still somewhat useful in that sense as your movie theater suggestions show. However, we should be aware of aerosolization opportunities too and define protocols for public bathroom use, etc too.

    and define protocols for public bathroom use, etc too.

    Such as what?

  55. Anonymous[530] • Disclaimer says:
    @Achmed E. Newman
    2,000 Americans died in a 24-hour period?!! What about the day before? With 2,800,000 Americans dying each year, give or take a couple hundred thousand (and a few more on leap years) that works out to over 7,500 a day average.

    If we don't know how many of these 2,000 people died with the Kung Flu, but not of the Kung Flu, this is likely an upper bound. 25% more deaths a day over some period of time is not peanuts, but this won't last.

    Epic, man! Nagasaki City!

    Numeracy - it's not just for breakfast anymore - get off the Intotainment, people, and think for yourselves.

    This is one of the dumbest posts ever…going by your logic, then we should do nothing to stop wars, pandemics and weather disasters, since people will die one day anyway. In fact, the diseases and disabilities of old age kill 100,000 people each day, which is more than all infectious diseases combined. Does this mean that an “extra” 100,000-10,000,000 people dying from a pandemic doesn’t matter? Because this is what you are saying.

    How many people died in the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki? I don’t know, and I don’t feel like fact checking now, but it can’t be more than two or three times what the SARS2–COVID has already killed in America. Yes, the coronavirus is well on it’s way to have atomic-bomb levels of casualties in America.

    • Replies: @Redneck farmer
    "Tell us the truth, man! We can handle it. We're all gonna die, aren't we?"
    , @Achmed E. Newman
    10 million?? Are you nuts? And "extra"? You don't seem to GET extra!

    Is your 100,000 deaths per day, in America, or the world? It's way too high for this country (I told you 7,500 or so). You are completely innumerate, man. Did you read my comparison to the normal death rate. C.J. Hopkins here on this very website wrote a very well-named article called The War on Death* Check it out.

    You don't need a walk-in closet - you need a bunker.

    .

    * Which I conveniently discussed here.
    , @Hippopotamusdrome


    going by your logic, then we should do nothing to stop...weather disasters

     

    Yeah. Everyone talks about the weather, but no one ever does anything about it.
  56. @Anonymous
    GOVERNORS WHO KNOW THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DROPLET TRANSMISSION AND AIRBORNE TRANSMISSION CAN OPEN BUSINESSES ASAP

    Movie theaters and theaters of all types can be opened NOW with 1/ social distancing 2/ masks required 3/ disinfection of armrests before each show 4/ people with cough symptoms banned from entry. (15 min Abbot Labs nasal swab test booth outside the building is doable for permission to enter)

    "Quiet audience" rules might be tried. Also probably need a clapping substitute. Some sort of safe no-hands non-verbal way to applaud like foot stomping.

    Concert halls same rules as theater but only if the music is classical or not sing along type. Music with everyone screaming the lyrics etc must be outdoor only.

    Also traditional turnstyles are a deal breaker obviously (fuck yeah they're still using them in the subways!).

    Also we need mass retrofitting automatic restroom doors so door handle transmission is not an issue.

    THIS IS SCIENCE BASED COMMON SENSE. Blurring the difference between airborne and droplet transmission is a tactic used to justify a draconian lockdown. Defeat their tactics.

    If we didn't have a hostile elite in charge then all buses subways trolleys skyrails etc would be CLOSED across the country. These environments are the perfect transmission vector everyone steadying themselves by grabbing surfaces (frequently stainless steel) that have been grabbed many times before by others.

    Airplanes MIGHT be treated same as the theater but it's still a grabby environment so the cleaning between flights would have to be done right.... and I don't have a solution for the airplane rest room.

    School closings are outright PROJECT FEAR. The powers that be (Bill Fucking Gates) will not tolerate the fact that a giant swath of the population (children) are out of harm's way and therefore do not need a shitty Bill Gates vaccine. Therefore look for schools to be the last place for the shutdown psychos to retreat from.

    “Quiet audience” rules might be tried. Also probably need a clapping substitute.”

    And people used to make fun of jazz hands.

    • Replies: @Muggles
    >>And people used to make fun of jazz hands.<<

    Didn't we read sometime last year that jazz hands were now the Politically Correct (and mandated) means of showing audience appreciation? At the U. of London or someplace in Merry Olde England.

    Too much noise is upsetting to autistic people or something like that.

    Now, thanks to Wuhan flu, it will become mandatory.

    But wait! Aren't jazz hands unfair to blind people who perform? I guess we will then have to have, in addition to American Sign Language interpreters on stage for the deaf, verbal communicators added for the blind performers. They can narrate appreciation levels for the blind. No jazz hands after that lame joke? Narrator says "crickets chirping."

    Solutions for all!
  57. “America has all sorts of privacy laws protecting infection and hospitalization information.

    Yet, we also have laws protecting the privacy of your 1040 tax returns, but that hasn’t stopped Harvard economist Raj Chetty from getting his hands on “anonymized” 1040 data that nobody else had the gall to ask for.”

    The difference between your medical data and your tax data is that the former is held by many private parties who risk severe penalties for contravening the law even with a hypothetical “emergency permission slip” from the government, while the latter is held by the federal government itself who routinely flouts whatever law it wants to because it won’t prosecute itself if it is not named “Trump”.

    The chink in the armor here is death certificates, which as Joe Schmoe mentioned, is a public record. It is usually collected at the county level, though, so it is not a single source, single format document but 3242 sources, at least 3242 different people filling them out with different habits, biases, lag times etc. States collate their county data, but again: 50 different formats, biases, lag times. Fun fact: Connecticut allows itself 6-8 weeks for this process.

  58. Anonymous[530] • Disclaimer says:
    @Joseph Doaks
    "It is crazy to watch the World’s greatest superpower being brought to it’s knees by the smallest of living creatures, and the supposed superpower being completely impotent to stop it. Quite a lesson in humility, huh?"

    Yes, it's crazy, but not a lesson in humility, I think instead that it's a lesson in current government ineptitude, much of which, I suspect is due to diversity replacing competence in government hiring and politicians pandering to the lowest common denominator.

    Maybe, but the government, especially at the federal level, is full of Ivy League graduates. Maybe some of them who are black got into Harvard and Yale on Affirmative Action, but even with AA Harvard and Yale are pretty tough colleges to get into, so I am assuming that incompetence has little to do with it.

    No, I think the failure has to do with the psychology of Americans. Americans are a freedom-loving poeople that traditionally distrusts government and don’t like to be bossed around. China controlled it’s pandemic with extremely Draconian social measures that Americans would never tolerate. It’s one thing to be “asked” to wear a mask in public, and to please, please, only go to out to buy groceries and medication. A completely different thing is when the goverment *tells* you to stay in your house or you will get beaten by the cops, and you cannot go out for anything. That is simply intolerable in America.

    The other reason for why so many deaths in America is because of the extremely Darwinian type of capitalist Society that exists in America. Over 80% of Americans have no health insurance of any kind. To make matters worse, medical services and medicine in America cost several times more than in any other developed country. A single day of stay at a hospital in America can cost you $40,000, and much more if it is at an I.C.U. In Europe and East Asia, medical care is seen as a human right, since the accomplishments of medical science are seen as a conquest of the human race that should be shared by all, and not a conquest of rich men that only rich men should benefit from. In fact, most rich men have not and would never be able to make any contributions to medicine. But, in America, medicine is a seen as a commericial “service” that one should buy in the marketplace. Hence, even upper middle-class people in America get financially ruined if they have someone in the family that requires protracted hospital stay.

    The combination of a freedom-loving culture where true quarantine is unacceptable with extreme savage capitalism that leave smost people uninsured and with little access to medicine is a recipe for a total disaster in a pandemic.

    Ultimately, Americans are paying the price for their proclivities.

    • Replies: @Peterike
    “ Over 80% of Americans have no health insurance of any kind”

    That’s a hilariously brazen lie. Did you expect anyone would believe it?
    , @Muggles
    >>The combination of a freedom-loving culture where true quarantine is unacceptable with extreme savage capitalism that leaves most people uninsured and with little access to medicine is a recipe for a total disaster in a pandemic.

    Ultimately, Americans are paying the price for their proclivities.<<

    Gee, don't let your America hating interfere with your thinking. What country do you live in?

    Do you think any of those COVID-19 patients in Queens (or anywhere else) are not getting treated due to lack of insurance? Nearly all private medical insurers have waived copays for covering that. "Savage capitalism" and "little access to medicine" are giveaways. Bernie dropped out and Communism is dead except at elite universities. You must still be in mourning.

    Communist China has "free" medicine, notorious for ignoring anyone who can't pay. Italy and Spain have government provided health care. And their huge pandemic infections (and death rates) were the ones that mainly infected NYC with the same thing via travelers from there. "Most people" in the US are medically insured and the ones who aren't get it free from the government.

    Mexico and Venezuela has the "single payer" health system you commies seem to love. How are they coping with Mr. Pandemic? Just wondering.
  59. @Steve Sailer
    Is there evidence that a lower percentage of cases are converting to severe forms?

    ICU usage is way under the forecasts from a month ago. Is that because infections are way under the forecast or because a smaller percentage of infections are progressing to hospitalization and ICU levels? Or both?

    Does anybody have numbers on hydroxychloroquine usage? Is it high enough to be making a dent in ICU usage?

    Does anybody have numbers on hydroxychloroquine usage? Is it high enough to be making a dent in ICU usage?

    This article from the last couple of days says that New York is trying hydroxychloroquine on 1,500 patients. It also reports that we’ve received a shipment of 3.5 million tablets (presumably doses) of hydroxychloroquine from India, as well as 9 tons of feedstock chemicals to manufacture it here.

    That suggests that hydroxychloroquine is being, or is going to be, tried out on a larger scale and/or that there is already significant demand from doctors in the field to try it out, as an empirical approach to cure.

    https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/hydroxychloroquine-consignment-from-india-arrives-in-us/ar-BB12v0un

  60. @Anonymous
    This is one of the dumbest posts ever...going by your logic, then we should do nothing to stop wars, pandemics and weather disasters, since people will die one day anyway. In fact, the diseases and disabilities of old age kill 100,000 people each day, which is more than all infectious diseases combined. Does this mean that an "extra" 100,000-10,000,000 people dying from a pandemic doesn't matter? Because this is what you are saying.

    How many people died in the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki? I don't know, and I don't feel like fact checking now, but it can't be more than two or three times what the SARS2--COVID has already killed in America. Yes, the coronavirus is well on it's way to have atomic-bomb levels of casualties in America.

    “Tell us the truth, man! We can handle it. We’re all gonna die, aren’t we?”

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Yup.
  61. anon[262] • Disclaimer says:
    @Steve Sailer
    Is there evidence that a lower percentage of cases are converting to severe forms?

    ICU usage is way under the forecasts from a month ago. Is that because infections are way under the forecast or because a smaller percentage of infections are progressing to hospitalization and ICU levels? Or both?

    Does anybody have numbers on hydroxychloroquine usage? Is it high enough to be making a dent in ICU usage?

    hydroxychloroquine has been used frequently.

    Really, the justification is based on NYC hospital fragility. I haven’t dug into the numbers but the deaths will go down since hospital admissions are already down in NY.

    The lack of surge capacity in hospitals is terrifying to elites. Raw number of deaths could be ignored otherwise.

    Look, I just saw a traffic jam of late model cars lining up at a food bank in Texas. All of them were newer than my vintage asian fleet. Bad optics. If they restart May 1, this will be an expense paid staycation. If it drags out, not so much.

    The 100,000 estimate was a necessary answer. It had to be higher than seasonal flu. It has to be achievable. It was the lowest number out of the earlier model estimates, so it can be pitched as a victory. No one numerate should be all that panicked by it.

    The trick is to work backwards.

    Trump will have 80,000 deaths for any summer flare ups. Next week will start to pressure Fauci and Debra Birx. They got what they demanded, and they got their Mulligan on just how horribly they performed during round one. They claimed lack of data, and by May 1 they either have it or own the fact they couldn’t get it. Get real, there is never enough data.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    The trick is to work backwards.

    Trump will have 80,000 deaths for any summer flare ups. Next week will start to pressure Fauci and Debra Birx. They got what they demanded, and they got their Mulligan on just how horribly they performed during round one. They claimed lack of data, and by May 1 they either have it or own the fact they couldn’t get it. Get real, there is never enough data.
     
    What are you referring to? Please explain what these sentences mean.
  62. @unit472
    "Occupation" may not tell the whole story. Lawyer for example. Public Defender v. Patent Attorney or your earlier example of shoe salesman. Air Jordans or Ferragamo? I'm not saying it 'can't be done' but you need to do some big data analysis to refine it beyond a headline occupation.

    Fortunately, Trump may get some help from Europe as Denmark, Germany and other European countries are going to start their own loosening up soon. We can see what is working and what is not.

    Fortunately, Trump may get some help from Europe as Denmark, Germany and other European countries are going to start their own loosening up soon. We can see what is working and what is not.

    We stopped at a little bakery on an Amish farm today. They seemed completely oblivious to any -demic, pan-, epi-, or what-not. At least there was little talking. The farmer’s wife is deaf, and mine fluent in ASL. We got a nice haul of goodies for Easter brunch.

    Of course it was all in cash. Pre-pandemic? Heck, it was pre-ATM, even pre-Diners Club.

    • Thanks: Achmed E. Newman
    • Replies: @Jack D

    We stopped at a little bakery on an Amish farm today.
     
    I assume "today" meant Saturday. No Amish business I know of would be open on Sunday let alone Easter.
  63. Anonymous[186] • Disclaimer says:

    I like this lockdown according to number of deaths idea. Imagine making Harlemites stay home if a prescribed number of black bodies piled up by the end of a month. Think of the black lives saved if we locked down the south side of Chicago for a couple of months when they violate our official black body pile number.

    Black folks more than anyone, need to learn the long-term health benefits of social distancing:

    https://nypost.com/2020/04/11/two-killed-another-seriously-injured-in-east-harlem-shooting-saturday/

    • Agree: Rob
  64. Anonymous[721] • Disclaimer says:
    @Redneck farmer
    "Tell us the truth, man! We can handle it. We're all gonna die, aren't we?"

    Yup.

  65. How about letting people decide for themselves?

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    BINGO!
  66. How about you Wall Street quants? For example, consider how valuable it would be to figure out the relative risk of infection of flight attendants ….

    Dude, you don’t think they’re not already on it?

  67. @Anonymous

    We should look at infection / hospitalization / and death rates by occupation. If people in your type of work were seldom infected or hospitalized or dying, then you should get back to work. In contrast, if your type of worker has been dying like flies, well, you need serious plans to upgrade your activities to make them safer.
     
    This is hugely overdetermined, Steve. What is driving infection rates is culture, residential circumstances, and means of transportation (in that order), not people’s occupations.

    Surprised you are overlooking all the confounding variables.

    “This is hugely overdetermined, Steve. What is driving infection rates is culture, residential circumstances, and means of transportation (in that order), not people’s occupations.”
    Dont disagree with your catagories, but still think occupation has a place. (those subway deaths/infections are reflected in UK figures for bus/train etc employees.)

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    (those subway deaths/infections are reflected in UK figures for bus/train etc employees.)
     
    The subway numbers aren’t out of proportion to New York City population groups.
  68. @Bleuteaux
    So the Chinese trolls from Zerohedge's comment section are here now?

    Zerohedge comments ? Oh, god help us. A greater cesspit of vicious invective & ill-considered jabber is hard to find.

  69. @Achmed E. Newman
    I think the 1st industry to be opened up ought to be one with natural social distancing:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79llXVDWbCQ

    In Aust’ the NRL (national rugby league) has already (apparently) got permission for a late May reopening of its season.(The practicalities of reopening etc are still a bit hazy — who would believe it ?)
    Its all about “priorities” apparently.
    (Aussie Rules games from years ago are regularly replayed now on TV and radio — radio… that does my head in a bit….).

  70. @Anonymous
    This is one of the dumbest posts ever...going by your logic, then we should do nothing to stop wars, pandemics and weather disasters, since people will die one day anyway. In fact, the diseases and disabilities of old age kill 100,000 people each day, which is more than all infectious diseases combined. Does this mean that an "extra" 100,000-10,000,000 people dying from a pandemic doesn't matter? Because this is what you are saying.

    How many people died in the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki? I don't know, and I don't feel like fact checking now, but it can't be more than two or three times what the SARS2--COVID has already killed in America. Yes, the coronavirus is well on it's way to have atomic-bomb levels of casualties in America.

    10 million?? Are you nuts? And “extra”? You don’t seem to GET extra!

    Is your 100,000 deaths per day, in America, or the world? It’s way too high for this country (I told you 7,500 or so). You are completely innumerate, man. Did you read my comparison to the normal death rate. C.J. Hopkins here on this very website wrote a very well-named article called The War on Death* Check it out.

    You don’t need a walk-in closet – you need a bunker.

    .

    * Which I conveniently discussed here.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    C.J. Hopkins here on this very website wrote a very well-named article called The War on Death*
     
    Was that Israel Shamir’s essay?
    , @Anonymous
    I mean *ageing* kills 100,000 people each day Worldwide. Nowhere did I imply that coronavirus kills that much every day. Coronavirus has killed 100,000 Worldwide in 3 months. You clearly can't read.

    And this virus can absolutely kill millions. Just yesterday it killed over 2,000 people in America alone. And that is just in one country. Worldwide, it is killing significantly more than this every day. If this goes on for several more months, as it could, there could absolutely be millions of deaths. This is a worst case scenario, but it is plausible.
  71. @Tono Bungay
    How about letting people decide for themselves?

    BINGO!

  72. @FPD72
    It’s my understanding that movie theaters make most of their profit from concessions, which I don’t think would be very popular in the current environment. How does not touching your face fit with eating in a theater? Maybe theater owners would be willing to open for break-even Or a small loss so they could pay their employees.

    The company that owns AMC theaters just had the rating on their $5 Billion of debt downgraded to CCC which means “unlikely to continue as a going concern”. Attendance was down 10% in 2019 versus 2018.

  73. @Steve Sailer
    Is there evidence that a lower percentage of cases are converting to severe forms?

    ICU usage is way under the forecasts from a month ago. Is that because infections are way under the forecast or because a smaller percentage of infections are progressing to hospitalization and ICU levels? Or both?

    Does anybody have numbers on hydroxychloroquine usage? Is it high enough to be making a dent in ICU usage?

    Percent of hospital/ICU resources used seems like another criterion that could be used to determine whether or not to relax restrictions. After all, that’s what “flattening the curve” was all about, right? Making sure health care resources are not overwhelmed? Therefore, if your hospitalization rate is below some cutoff, start easing restrictions and see what happens. If utilization creeps up, stop easing restrictions or reverse them. If your area’s hospitalization rate is above this cutoff, sorry, you’ll need to get it down before you can start easing up.

  74. @Anonymous
    Maybe, but the government, especially at the federal level, is full of Ivy League graduates. Maybe some of them who are black got into Harvard and Yale on Affirmative Action, but even with AA Harvard and Yale are pretty tough colleges to get into, so I am assuming that incompetence has little to do with it.

    No, I think the failure has to do with the psychology of Americans. Americans are a freedom-loving poeople that traditionally distrusts government and don't like to be bossed around. China controlled it's pandemic with extremely Draconian social measures that Americans would never tolerate. It's one thing to be "asked" to wear a mask in public, and to please, please, only go to out to buy groceries and medication. A completely different thing is when the goverment *tells* you to stay in your house or you will get beaten by the cops, and you cannot go out for anything. That is simply intolerable in America.

    The other reason for why so many deaths in America is because of the extremely Darwinian type of capitalist Society that exists in America. Over 80% of Americans have no health insurance of any kind. To make matters worse, medical services and medicine in America cost several times more than in any other developed country. A single day of stay at a hospital in America can cost you $40,000, and much more if it is at an I.C.U. In Europe and East Asia, medical care is seen as a human right, since the accomplishments of medical science are seen as a conquest of the human race that should be shared by all, and not a conquest of rich men that only rich men should benefit from. In fact, most rich men have not and would never be able to make any contributions to medicine. But, in America, medicine is a seen as a commericial "service" that one should buy in the marketplace. Hence, even upper middle-class people in America get financially ruined if they have someone in the family that requires protracted hospital stay.

    The combination of a freedom-loving culture where true quarantine is unacceptable with extreme savage capitalism that leave smost people uninsured and with little access to medicine is a recipe for a total disaster in a pandemic.

    Ultimately, Americans are paying the price for their proclivities.

    “ Over 80% of Americans have no health insurance of any kind”

    That’s a hilariously brazen lie. Did you expect anyone would believe it?

  75. @Joe Schmoe
    Well, a death record is a public record, so anyone should be able to get it. Once you have the name and city, identifying the person gets pretty easy.

    This is the kind of work sociologists should be doing rather than researching trannies, etc.

    I agree completely but can’t press the Agree Button for some reason.

  76. @Anonymous
    Wow, America has just broken two new records: it surpassed Italy to become the country with the largest number of victims, and over 2,000 Americans died in the last 24 hours.

    Best case scenario when this is over: expect a million dead Americans by Summer. The numbers of deaths are still rising, and even when they start to decline, there will still be quadruple-digit deaths daily for several more weeks and up to three months. Worst case scenario: 4-5% of the entire U.S population will die, at 15-20 million dead. This is unlikely, but 1-5 million deaths by July is a very real possibility. While the death rate is "only" 2-4% overall, it is up to 10% for those over 65, and 51% of people that go into I.C.Us for SARS-COVID2 die.

    This is a tragedy of colossal proportions. This is America's Hiroshima and Nagasaki moments, in reverse. It is crazy to watch the World's greatest superpower being brought to it's knees by the smallest of living creatures, and the supposed superpower being completely impotent to stop it. Quite a lesson in humility, huh?

    https://youtu.be/iejGYFpTGlg

    Worst case scenario: 4-5% of the entire U.S population will die, at 15-20 million dead.

    No, the worst case scenario is that 100% of Americans die from this disease but that’s impossible and so is 20 million dead. The REALISTIC absolute worst case scenario based upon known case mortality rates would be 3 million dead of Wuhan Virus (1% of the population) but in a normal year 2.8 million people die and there is going to be a big overlap between those who will die of WuFlu and those who were going to die this year anyway, so maybe 1.5 million excess deaths as an absolute worse case scenario. Of those, probably 80% or more will be of people who were elderly and/or in ill health and were going to die, if not during 2020, then during the next few years anyway. While each death is a tragedy, having a bunch of people in nursing homes and a bunch of asthmatic, diabetic, obese ghetto dwellers pass away is not a society ending event.

    Their deaths would actually leave us with a stronger, more youthful and vital, and slightly less crowded society. America was really getting to be an (unhealthy, obese and) geriatric society – we saw this everywhere – a bunch of senior citizen Presidential candidates verging on senility, “sexy” Superbowl entertainers who are post-menopausal women, etc. This is not something you would see in any healthy or normal society. Not to mention (and I know we’re not supposed to mention anything as trivial as the economy) that losing a bunch of non-productive elders is going to be good for pension systems, cut future health care costs, etc. “OK, Boomer” is obnoxious but it reflects a sentiment that older Americans are just not clearing the stage for the next generations in a way that is normal and maybe Corona-chan has to give them a little shove. I for one would be willing to face this epidemic if it meant not having to hear so many ads for prescription drugs on TV. Maybe “nature” has taken notice of our current untenable situation and is making some corrections for us? Now it’s man’s job to struggle against nature and disease, but sometimes nature has the upper hand and wins anyway.

    OTOH, destroying our entire economy IS a potentially society ending event (at least our society as we know it). In order to save the village, we must destroy it!

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    "While each death is a tragedy, having a bunch of people in nursing homes and a bunch of asthmatic, diabetic, obese ghetto dwellers pass away is not a society ending event."

    Hold on Jack D -is it a society ending event if we lose Orthodox Jews, in places like Brooklyn, who chose to broke community social distancing rules, to celebrate Purim together? I believe that is a legitimate question for you based on your comment. Inquiring minds want to know.

    https://www.amny.com/brooklyn/despite-coronavirus-jewish-residents-in-brooklyn-choose-to-celebrate-purim-together/
    , @Intelligent Dasein
    Very well said, Jack. When you're right, you're right.
    , @anon

    destroying our entire economy
     
    I agree with the main premise of your statement; but don't understand this "destroying" part. All the physical assets are there; 99.99% of humans are there; what is the destroyed thing? All that will happen is people will be poorer. Is poverty so terrible that we have to sacrifice humans for it? I think we can easily inflate our money supply by $10T and still not cross 10% or 15% inflation. We lived through 70's and 80's with high inflation and didn't exactly end up dead. Heck, we ended up WW2, not much worse than 1942 but for 400K souls lost. We will lose all high human touch activity economy for a long time, because people will be afraid, not government shutdown. HIV/AIDS greatly diminished casual sex, not because any edict. Babies are still being born, just fewer unintended ones.
  77. Anonymous[196] • Disclaimer says:
    @anon
    hydroxychloroquine has been used frequently.

    Really, the justification is based on NYC hospital fragility. I haven't dug into the numbers but the deaths will go down since hospital admissions are already down in NY.

    The lack of surge capacity in hospitals is terrifying to elites. Raw number of deaths could be ignored otherwise.

    Look, I just saw a traffic jam of late model cars lining up at a food bank in Texas. All of them were newer than my vintage asian fleet. Bad optics. If they restart May 1, this will be an expense paid staycation. If it drags out, not so much.

    The 100,000 estimate was a necessary answer. It had to be higher than seasonal flu. It has to be achievable. It was the lowest number out of the earlier model estimates, so it can be pitched as a victory. No one numerate should be all that panicked by it.

    The trick is to work backwards.

    Trump will have 80,000 deaths for any summer flare ups. Next week will start to pressure Fauci and Debra Birx. They got what they demanded, and they got their Mulligan on just how horribly they performed during round one. They claimed lack of data, and by May 1 they either have it or own the fact they couldn't get it. Get real, there is never enough data.

    The trick is to work backwards.

    Trump will have 80,000 deaths for any summer flare ups. Next week will start to pressure Fauci and Debra Birx. They got what they demanded, and they got their Mulligan on just how horribly they performed during round one. They claimed lack of data, and by May 1 they either have it or own the fact they couldn’t get it. Get real, there is never enough data.

    What are you referring to? Please explain what these sentences mean.

  78. Anonymous[196] • Disclaimer says:
    @animalogic
    "This is hugely overdetermined, Steve. What is driving infection rates is culture, residential circumstances, and means of transportation (in that order), not people’s occupations."
    Dont disagree with your catagories, but still think occupation has a place. (those subway deaths/infections are reflected in UK figures for bus/train etc employees.)

    (those subway deaths/infections are reflected in UK figures for bus/train etc employees.)

    The subway numbers aren’t out of proportion to New York City population groups.

  79. We should open up everything immediately and let people make their own damn decisions (eg, if I were my 70-something father with a few heart surgeries I still wouldn’t leave my house). But, if I were to play Steve’s game I think population density and weather should be considered as factors for opening up some regions compared to others. Outside of events like Mardi Gras, the Sunbelt was never going to be hit as hard as New York. This is particularly true of the rural/suburban Sunbelt.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    (eg, if I were my 70-something father with a few heart surgeries I still wouldn’t leave my house).
     
    For how long? A year? Until a vaccine is developed?

    How will he eat?
  80. Anonymous[284] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jack D

    Worst case scenario: 4-5% of the entire U.S population will die, at 15-20 million dead.
     
    No, the worst case scenario is that 100% of Americans die from this disease but that's impossible and so is 20 million dead. The REALISTIC absolute worst case scenario based upon known case mortality rates would be 3 million dead of Wuhan Virus (1% of the population) but in a normal year 2.8 million people die and there is going to be a big overlap between those who will die of WuFlu and those who were going to die this year anyway, so maybe 1.5 million excess deaths as an absolute worse case scenario. Of those, probably 80% or more will be of people who were elderly and/or in ill health and were going to die, if not during 2020, then during the next few years anyway. While each death is a tragedy, having a bunch of people in nursing homes and a bunch of asthmatic, diabetic, obese ghetto dwellers pass away is not a society ending event.

    Their deaths would actually leave us with a stronger, more youthful and vital, and slightly less crowded society. America was really getting to be an (unhealthy, obese and) geriatric society - we saw this everywhere - a bunch of senior citizen Presidential candidates verging on senility, "sexy" Superbowl entertainers who are post-menopausal women, etc. This is not something you would see in any healthy or normal society. Not to mention (and I know we're not supposed to mention anything as trivial as the economy) that losing a bunch of non-productive elders is going to be good for pension systems, cut future health care costs, etc. "OK, Boomer" is obnoxious but it reflects a sentiment that older Americans are just not clearing the stage for the next generations in a way that is normal and maybe Corona-chan has to give them a little shove. I for one would be willing to face this epidemic if it meant not having to hear so many ads for prescription drugs on TV. Maybe "nature" has taken notice of our current untenable situation and is making some corrections for us? Now it's man's job to struggle against nature and disease, but sometimes nature has the upper hand and wins anyway.

    OTOH, destroying our entire economy IS a potentially society ending event (at least our society as we know it). In order to save the village, we must destroy it!

    “While each death is a tragedy, having a bunch of people in nursing homes and a bunch of asthmatic, diabetic, obese ghetto dwellers pass away is not a society ending event.”

    Hold on Jack D -is it a society ending event if we lose Orthodox Jews, in places like Brooklyn, who chose to broke community social distancing rules, to celebrate Purim together? I believe that is a legitimate question for you based on your comment. Inquiring minds want to know.

    https://www.amny.com/brooklyn/despite-coronavirus-jewish-residents-in-brooklyn-choose-to-celebrate-purim-together/

    • Replies: @ThreeCranes
    Great observation. Jack D won’t answer, can’t answer.

    I don’t know what their God has in store for them (sounds like another Jewish holiday that celebrates their victory over somebody they screwed over in the past who get fed up with their shite), but mine won’t bend the Rules for their silly superstitions. You can’t fix stupid.

  81. @Reg Cæsar

    Fortunately, Trump may get some help from Europe as Denmark, Germany and other European countries are going to start their own loosening up soon. We can see what is working and what is not.
     
    We stopped at a little bakery on an Amish farm today. They seemed completely oblivious to any -demic, pan-, epi-, or what-not. At least there was little talking. The farmer's wife is deaf, and mine fluent in ASL. We got a nice haul of goodies for Easter brunch.

    Of course it was all in cash. Pre-pandemic? Heck, it was pre-ATM, even pre-Diners Club.

    We stopped at a little bakery on an Amish farm today.

    I assume “today” meant Saturday. No Amish business I know of would be open on Sunday let alone Easter.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    I assume “today” meant Saturday.
     
    Yes, I posted that last night.


    No Amish business I know of would be open on Sunday let alone Easter.
     
    Maybe the Seventh Day Amish.
  82. “destroying our entire economy IS a potentially society ending event (at least our society as we know it)”

    And 1.5 excess deaths is not?

    Also at this point the biggest obstacle to economic growth is the virus itself and related fears/uncertainty not government restrictions. Anything that literally decimates certain demographic cohorts in a society will hurt the economy regardless of government policy.

    Friendly reminder: Jonathan Swift was satire.

  83. @Jack D

    Worst case scenario: 4-5% of the entire U.S population will die, at 15-20 million dead.
     
    No, the worst case scenario is that 100% of Americans die from this disease but that's impossible and so is 20 million dead. The REALISTIC absolute worst case scenario based upon known case mortality rates would be 3 million dead of Wuhan Virus (1% of the population) but in a normal year 2.8 million people die and there is going to be a big overlap between those who will die of WuFlu and those who were going to die this year anyway, so maybe 1.5 million excess deaths as an absolute worse case scenario. Of those, probably 80% or more will be of people who were elderly and/or in ill health and were going to die, if not during 2020, then during the next few years anyway. While each death is a tragedy, having a bunch of people in nursing homes and a bunch of asthmatic, diabetic, obese ghetto dwellers pass away is not a society ending event.

    Their deaths would actually leave us with a stronger, more youthful and vital, and slightly less crowded society. America was really getting to be an (unhealthy, obese and) geriatric society - we saw this everywhere - a bunch of senior citizen Presidential candidates verging on senility, "sexy" Superbowl entertainers who are post-menopausal women, etc. This is not something you would see in any healthy or normal society. Not to mention (and I know we're not supposed to mention anything as trivial as the economy) that losing a bunch of non-productive elders is going to be good for pension systems, cut future health care costs, etc. "OK, Boomer" is obnoxious but it reflects a sentiment that older Americans are just not clearing the stage for the next generations in a way that is normal and maybe Corona-chan has to give them a little shove. I for one would be willing to face this epidemic if it meant not having to hear so many ads for prescription drugs on TV. Maybe "nature" has taken notice of our current untenable situation and is making some corrections for us? Now it's man's job to struggle against nature and disease, but sometimes nature has the upper hand and wins anyway.

    OTOH, destroying our entire economy IS a potentially society ending event (at least our society as we know it). In order to save the village, we must destroy it!

    Very well said, Jack. When you’re right, you’re right.

  84. @anon
    “Quiet audience” rules might be tried. Also probably need a clapping substitute."

    And people used to make fun of jazz hands.

    >>And people used to make fun of jazz hands.<<

    Didn't we read sometime last year that jazz hands were now the Politically Correct (and mandated) means of showing audience appreciation? At the U. of London or someplace in Merry Olde England.

    Too much noise is upsetting to autistic people or something like that.

    Now, thanks to Wuhan flu, it will become mandatory.

    But wait! Aren't jazz hands unfair to blind people who perform? I guess we will then have to have, in addition to American Sign Language interpreters on stage for the deaf, verbal communicators added for the blind performers. They can narrate appreciation levels for the blind. No jazz hands after that lame joke? Narrator says "crickets chirping."

    Solutions for all!

  85. @Anonymous
    Maybe, but the government, especially at the federal level, is full of Ivy League graduates. Maybe some of them who are black got into Harvard and Yale on Affirmative Action, but even with AA Harvard and Yale are pretty tough colleges to get into, so I am assuming that incompetence has little to do with it.

    No, I think the failure has to do with the psychology of Americans. Americans are a freedom-loving poeople that traditionally distrusts government and don't like to be bossed around. China controlled it's pandemic with extremely Draconian social measures that Americans would never tolerate. It's one thing to be "asked" to wear a mask in public, and to please, please, only go to out to buy groceries and medication. A completely different thing is when the goverment *tells* you to stay in your house or you will get beaten by the cops, and you cannot go out for anything. That is simply intolerable in America.

    The other reason for why so many deaths in America is because of the extremely Darwinian type of capitalist Society that exists in America. Over 80% of Americans have no health insurance of any kind. To make matters worse, medical services and medicine in America cost several times more than in any other developed country. A single day of stay at a hospital in America can cost you $40,000, and much more if it is at an I.C.U. In Europe and East Asia, medical care is seen as a human right, since the accomplishments of medical science are seen as a conquest of the human race that should be shared by all, and not a conquest of rich men that only rich men should benefit from. In fact, most rich men have not and would never be able to make any contributions to medicine. But, in America, medicine is a seen as a commericial "service" that one should buy in the marketplace. Hence, even upper middle-class people in America get financially ruined if they have someone in the family that requires protracted hospital stay.

    The combination of a freedom-loving culture where true quarantine is unacceptable with extreme savage capitalism that leave smost people uninsured and with little access to medicine is a recipe for a total disaster in a pandemic.

    Ultimately, Americans are paying the price for their proclivities.

    >>The combination of a freedom-loving culture where true quarantine is unacceptable with extreme savage capitalism that leaves most people uninsured and with little access to medicine is a recipe for a total disaster in a pandemic.

    Ultimately, Americans are paying the price for their proclivities.<<

    Gee, don't let your America hating interfere with your thinking. What country do you live in?

    Do you think any of those COVID-19 patients in Queens (or anywhere else) are not getting treated due to lack of insurance? Nearly all private medical insurers have waived copays for covering that. "Savage capitalism" and "little access to medicine" are giveaways. Bernie dropped out and Communism is dead except at elite universities. You must still be in mourning.

    Communist China has "free" medicine, notorious for ignoring anyone who can't pay. Italy and Spain have government provided health care. And their huge pandemic infections (and death rates) were the ones that mainly infected NYC with the same thing via travelers from there. "Most people" in the US are medically insured and the ones who aren't get it free from the government.

    Mexico and Venezuela has the "single payer" health system you commies seem to love. How are they coping with Mr. Pandemic? Just wondering.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Another dumb post...giving basic universal health care for everyone is not the same as communism, where not only all economic activity but the perssonal lives of the population are strictly controlled by the government.

    Dead giveaways? No, the real dead giveaways are a love of guns, freedom, hunting, religiosity, hyper-patriotism and anti-government. These are the giveaways that I am dealing with a white conservative American. Every time I see a guy wearing a cap with the American Flag in it, I know that he is a conservative Republican, loves guns and hunting.

    The most annoying feature of American conservatives is their hyper-patriotism and hostility towards government, which completely precludes them from admittting that there is anything wrong with " 'Murika" and with people dying from lack of medical care because the government stepping in and providing assistance is "anti-American", "anti-freedom", "communism" etc.

    White conservative Americans are the people most hurt in the World by hyper-capitalism, and yet they are the biggest supporers of it. Their jobs have been sent to China, their tax money is used to bail out Wall Street bankers, and international trade hurts their small businesses more than anything else, and yet they cry "communism!" at any attempt to change that state of affairs.

    It just goes to show you can't fix stupid.
  86. @Joe Schmoe
    Well, a death record is a public record, so anyone should be able to get it. Once you have the name and city, identifying the person gets pretty easy.

    This is the kind of work sociologists should be doing rather than researching trannies, etc.

    Well, a death record is a public record, so anyone should be able to get it. Once you have the name and city, identifying the person gets pretty easy.

    This is the kind of work sociologists should be doing rather than researching trannies, etc.

    Indeed. Many years ago sociologists did good and valuable work.

    Nowadays they are considered oxygen thieves at best.

  87. We should look at infection / hospitalization / and death rates by occupation. If people in your type of work were seldom infected or hospitalized or dying, then you should get back to work. In contrast, if your type of worker has been dying like flies, well, you need serious plans to upgrade your activities to make them safer.

    You know if you did enough of this data crunching a lot of extra results could be in there, causes and potential cures for lots of diseases.

    Would have to done by the state as no profit in it.

  88. anon[225] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jack D

    Worst case scenario: 4-5% of the entire U.S population will die, at 15-20 million dead.
     
    No, the worst case scenario is that 100% of Americans die from this disease but that's impossible and so is 20 million dead. The REALISTIC absolute worst case scenario based upon known case mortality rates would be 3 million dead of Wuhan Virus (1% of the population) but in a normal year 2.8 million people die and there is going to be a big overlap between those who will die of WuFlu and those who were going to die this year anyway, so maybe 1.5 million excess deaths as an absolute worse case scenario. Of those, probably 80% or more will be of people who were elderly and/or in ill health and were going to die, if not during 2020, then during the next few years anyway. While each death is a tragedy, having a bunch of people in nursing homes and a bunch of asthmatic, diabetic, obese ghetto dwellers pass away is not a society ending event.

    Their deaths would actually leave us with a stronger, more youthful and vital, and slightly less crowded society. America was really getting to be an (unhealthy, obese and) geriatric society - we saw this everywhere - a bunch of senior citizen Presidential candidates verging on senility, "sexy" Superbowl entertainers who are post-menopausal women, etc. This is not something you would see in any healthy or normal society. Not to mention (and I know we're not supposed to mention anything as trivial as the economy) that losing a bunch of non-productive elders is going to be good for pension systems, cut future health care costs, etc. "OK, Boomer" is obnoxious but it reflects a sentiment that older Americans are just not clearing the stage for the next generations in a way that is normal and maybe Corona-chan has to give them a little shove. I for one would be willing to face this epidemic if it meant not having to hear so many ads for prescription drugs on TV. Maybe "nature" has taken notice of our current untenable situation and is making some corrections for us? Now it's man's job to struggle against nature and disease, but sometimes nature has the upper hand and wins anyway.

    OTOH, destroying our entire economy IS a potentially society ending event (at least our society as we know it). In order to save the village, we must destroy it!

    destroying our entire economy

    I agree with the main premise of your statement; but don’t understand this “destroying” part. All the physical assets are there; 99.99% of humans are there; what is the destroyed thing? All that will happen is people will be poorer. Is poverty so terrible that we have to sacrifice humans for it? I think we can easily inflate our money supply by $10T and still not cross 10% or 15% inflation. We lived through 70’s and 80’s with high inflation and didn’t exactly end up dead. Heck, we ended up WW2, not much worse than 1942 but for 400K souls lost. We will lose all high human touch activity economy for a long time, because people will be afraid, not government shutdown. HIV/AIDS greatly diminished casual sex, not because any edict. Babies are still being born, just fewer unintended ones.

  89. Per WS quants:

    99% of the work for this would be assembling the data, the analysis would be easy.

    In addition to just getting it, “cleaning” it, eliminating errors to the point that the data is actually useful in the sense of using it to find out stuff that is actually right, would be necessary. Raj Chetty doesn’t have this problem, since not being right isn’t a firing offense in the economics professor business so I would say that you’d rather have a WS guy than Raj Chetty.

    One problem with doing that is that financial data is way less error ridden than it used to be, so cleaning data sets, which doesn’t seem to be taught in school either, is something of dying art amongst WS quants. Also, WS quants who can clean data sets generally clean financial market data sets, which is something they know about in the sense that they would recognize something in the data set that was obviously wrong. You’d need people who actually know about the what the data set is about to clean it, which in this case would involve non wall street guys. Finding people like that might be somewhat hard.

  90. Anonymous[196] • Disclaimer says:
    @Achmed E. Newman
    10 million?? Are you nuts? And "extra"? You don't seem to GET extra!

    Is your 100,000 deaths per day, in America, or the world? It's way too high for this country (I told you 7,500 or so). You are completely innumerate, man. Did you read my comparison to the normal death rate. C.J. Hopkins here on this very website wrote a very well-named article called The War on Death* Check it out.

    You don't need a walk-in closet - you need a bunker.

    .

    * Which I conveniently discussed here.

    C.J. Hopkins here on this very website wrote a very well-named article called The War on Death*

    Was that Israel Shamir’s essay?

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    No, C.J. Hopkins, starts with a "C", then and "J" Ends in "Hopkins", not "Shamir" (talk aboutcher reading problems) - HERE.
  91. Anonymous[196] • Disclaimer says:
    @anonymous jew
    We should open up everything immediately and let people make their own damn decisions (eg, if I were my 70-something father with a few heart surgeries I still wouldn't leave my house). But, if I were to play Steve's game I think population density and weather should be considered as factors for opening up some regions compared to others. Outside of events like Mardi Gras, the Sunbelt was never going to be hit as hard as New York. This is particularly true of the rural/suburban Sunbelt.

    (eg, if I were my 70-something father with a few heart surgeries I still wouldn’t leave my house).

    For how long? A year? Until a vaccine is developed?

    How will he eat?

    • Replies: @anonymous jew
    Until there's a vaccine or the virus burns itself out. If you likely have 5-10 years left, but your condition is such that Coronavirus will probably kill you, it seems logical to quarantine yourself for a year or so in hopes of getting an extra 5-10 years in return.

    Regarding food, he could order groceries in and then sanitize them. Not sure what he's doing at the moment. I think this is mostly spread by air (see the church choir story in Washington). Fortunately, my dad is in Florida so he has a good chance of being able to avoid this (tropical weather, single-family house, low population density and everyone drives instead of using public transportation).

    Without going trough my dad's extensive health history, he doesn't stand a good chance against Coronavirus. Unless he's a genetic non-responder, it's likely to kill him.

  92. @Anonymous
    "While each death is a tragedy, having a bunch of people in nursing homes and a bunch of asthmatic, diabetic, obese ghetto dwellers pass away is not a society ending event."

    Hold on Jack D -is it a society ending event if we lose Orthodox Jews, in places like Brooklyn, who chose to broke community social distancing rules, to celebrate Purim together? I believe that is a legitimate question for you based on your comment. Inquiring minds want to know.

    https://www.amny.com/brooklyn/despite-coronavirus-jewish-residents-in-brooklyn-choose-to-celebrate-purim-together/

    Great observation. Jack D won’t answer, can’t answer.

    I don’t know what their God has in store for them (sounds like another Jewish holiday that celebrates their victory over somebody they screwed over in the past who get fed up with their shite), but mine won’t bend the Rules for their silly superstitions. You can’t fix stupid.

  93. @Jack D

    We stopped at a little bakery on an Amish farm today.
     
    I assume "today" meant Saturday. No Amish business I know of would be open on Sunday let alone Easter.

    I assume “today” meant Saturday.

    Yes, I posted that last night.

    No Amish business I know of would be open on Sunday let alone Easter.

    Maybe the Seventh Day Amish.

  94. Anonymous[330] • Disclaimer says:
    @Achmed E. Newman
    10 million?? Are you nuts? And "extra"? You don't seem to GET extra!

    Is your 100,000 deaths per day, in America, or the world? It's way too high for this country (I told you 7,500 or so). You are completely innumerate, man. Did you read my comparison to the normal death rate. C.J. Hopkins here on this very website wrote a very well-named article called The War on Death* Check it out.

    You don't need a walk-in closet - you need a bunker.

    .

    * Which I conveniently discussed here.

    I mean *ageing* kills 100,000 people each day Worldwide. Nowhere did I imply that coronavirus kills that much every day. Coronavirus has killed 100,000 Worldwide in 3 months. You clearly can’t read.

    And this virus can absolutely kill millions. Just yesterday it killed over 2,000 people in America alone. And that is just in one country. Worldwide, it is killing significantly more than this every day. If this goes on for several more months, as it could, there could absolutely be millions of deaths. This is a worst case scenario, but it is plausible.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    I really can't read what you didn't write. Are you a woman? I asked you if you meant that normal deaths are 100,000 a year in the US or worldwide. You answered just now, and that sounds in the ballpark.

    See, you keep switching between the US and the world with your made-up numbers. Your original comment had numbers in the millions dead IN THE US. There won't be millions of deaths from the Kung Flu over the next several months. You are deluded. If by "several" you mean 3 or 4, then there will 3/4 million deaths or so, but that's from normal aging, disease, and occasional accidents.

    Turn off the panic fest, man, and get outside.
  95. Anonymous[330] • Disclaimer says:
    @Muggles
    >>The combination of a freedom-loving culture where true quarantine is unacceptable with extreme savage capitalism that leaves most people uninsured and with little access to medicine is a recipe for a total disaster in a pandemic.

    Ultimately, Americans are paying the price for their proclivities.<<

    Gee, don't let your America hating interfere with your thinking. What country do you live in?

    Do you think any of those COVID-19 patients in Queens (or anywhere else) are not getting treated due to lack of insurance? Nearly all private medical insurers have waived copays for covering that. "Savage capitalism" and "little access to medicine" are giveaways. Bernie dropped out and Communism is dead except at elite universities. You must still be in mourning.

    Communist China has "free" medicine, notorious for ignoring anyone who can't pay. Italy and Spain have government provided health care. And their huge pandemic infections (and death rates) were the ones that mainly infected NYC with the same thing via travelers from there. "Most people" in the US are medically insured and the ones who aren't get it free from the government.

    Mexico and Venezuela has the "single payer" health system you commies seem to love. How are they coping with Mr. Pandemic? Just wondering.

    Another dumb post…giving basic universal health care for everyone is not the same as communism, where not only all economic activity but the perssonal lives of the population are strictly controlled by the government.

    Dead giveaways? No, the real dead giveaways are a love of guns, freedom, hunting, religiosity, hyper-patriotism and anti-government. These are the giveaways that I am dealing with a white conservative American. Every time I see a guy wearing a cap with the American Flag in it, I know that he is a conservative Republican, loves guns and hunting.

    The most annoying feature of American conservatives is their hyper-patriotism and hostility towards government, which completely precludes them from admittting that there is anything wrong with ” ‘Murika” and with people dying from lack of medical care because the government stepping in and providing assistance is “anti-American”, “anti-freedom”, “communism” etc.

    White conservative Americans are the people most hurt in the World by hyper-capitalism, and yet they are the biggest supporers of it. Their jobs have been sent to China, their tax money is used to bail out Wall Street bankers, and international trade hurts their small businesses more than anything else, and yet they cry “communism!” at any attempt to change that state of affairs.

    It just goes to show you can’t fix stupid.

  96. anon[287] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous
    Wow, America has just broken two new records: it surpassed Italy to become the country with the largest number of victims, and over 2,000 Americans died in the last 24 hours.

    Best case scenario when this is over: expect a million dead Americans by Summer. The numbers of deaths are still rising, and even when they start to decline, there will still be quadruple-digit deaths daily for several more weeks and up to three months. Worst case scenario: 4-5% of the entire U.S population will die, at 15-20 million dead. This is unlikely, but 1-5 million deaths by July is a very real possibility. While the death rate is "only" 2-4% overall, it is up to 10% for those over 65, and 51% of people that go into I.C.Us for SARS-COVID2 die.

    This is a tragedy of colossal proportions. This is America's Hiroshima and Nagasaki moments, in reverse. It is crazy to watch the World's greatest superpower being brought to it's knees by the smallest of living creatures, and the supposed superpower being completely impotent to stop it. Quite a lesson in humility, huh?

    https://youtu.be/iejGYFpTGlg

    This is utter nonsense: ‘1-5 million deaths by July is a very real possibility’. That would require tens of thousands of Covid deaths PER DAY. I would say we would need to redouble our efforts, but we would actually need to increase our efforts to get to the predicted millions of dead 10- to 50-fold. Unless machine-gunning or napalm-bombing entire neighborhoods suspected of Covid infections is an option, I don’t see how it’s possible by July, or ever.

    My spouse is a “frontline” physician also involved in management in a major hospital network in a major Northeastern metropolitan area (not NYC). So I know what the situation is. The hospitals are NOT being overwhelmed and likely won’t be overwhelmed, during this predicted peak. While part of this is due to endless preparation, finding additional beds and resources, and increased call by critical care physicians and nurses, there has not been that much to do for the past month in terms of keeping COVID patients alive. There is an increased number of critically ill patients with COVID in ICUs, slowly growing, and they are mostly very old, very sick, or very obese – or all three. There is a stacking effect, because once they go on the ventilator, most stay on it for 2 weeks. Many of them die regardless, because they were on death’s door already, COVID or not.

    I wish Trump had more healthy skepticism and listened less to the likes of Fauci who, I suspect, has ulterior motives. In his interview with Foxnews a couple of days, Fauci said he was not paying any attention to COVID models, even though this scaremongering was based almost entirely on modeling projections. Which, of course, have turned out to be way off.

    Also, viruses, this iteration of Corona included, are not ‘alive’ by most any definition. Not that it makes a difference in this case, but it just shows your level of understanding of what’s going on.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    First of all, jackass, I am aware that viruses may or not may not be alive. I didn't mention it because I didn't consider it germaine to the discussion. You are actually wrong here: there is a *debate* whether viruses are live or not. There is no consensus that they are not alive.

    And 1-5 million deaths by July is a real possibility. Over 2,000 Americans died yesterday, while only 2 weeks ago there were only 100 days a day. It is not a linear progression but an *exponential* one. We could actually be seing 10,000-30,000 deaths day a month from now if quarantine is lifted which could result in 50-75% of the poipulation being infected.

    It's funy for you to claim I don't know what's going on.
    , @Corvinus
    "My spouse is a “frontline” physician also involved in management in a major hospital network in a major Northeastern metropolitan area (not NYC)."

    Why be coy? What city?

    "I wish Trump had more healthy skepticism..."

    LOL, he did in the beginning. He essentially referred to Covid-19 as no big deal. It took a meeting with a Fox News host to set him straight. Ask your spouse if he/she trusts a non-medical professional Jew like Kushner to manage this crisis, their reasons why, and get back to us.
  97. @Anonymous

    (eg, if I were my 70-something father with a few heart surgeries I still wouldn’t leave my house).
     
    For how long? A year? Until a vaccine is developed?

    How will he eat?

    Until there’s a vaccine or the virus burns itself out. If you likely have 5-10 years left, but your condition is such that Coronavirus will probably kill you, it seems logical to quarantine yourself for a year or so in hopes of getting an extra 5-10 years in return.

    Regarding food, he could order groceries in and then sanitize them. Not sure what he’s doing at the moment. I think this is mostly spread by air (see the church choir story in Washington). Fortunately, my dad is in Florida so he has a good chance of being able to avoid this (tropical weather, single-family house, low population density and everyone drives instead of using public transportation).

    Without going trough my dad’s extensive health history, he doesn’t stand a good chance against Coronavirus. Unless he’s a genetic non-responder, it’s likely to kill him.

  98. @Anonymous
    Re sun & vitamin D:

    The tv/radio guy Dr Oz says getting sun on your face is not enough exposure to trigger vit D production. He says you must expose the torso.

    I never heard this before. But now all of you bloggers have an excuse to go shirtless and constantly expose your disgusting fatbodies in public. Especially on the golf course. "Doctor's orders."

    I remember a few years back in the news there was a minor moral panic in some Asian country where the women were trying to get their men to NOT go topless all the time. The sight of so many disgusting fatbodies was demoralizing the women apparently. But once again it was bitchez talking shit. Those shirtless slobs were metabolizing gigantic amounts of vit D and staying out of the hospital like supermen.

    DOWN WITH THE MATRIARCHY

    With testosterone the protocol for sun exposure is: Face, arms and legs, not much, front of torso, better, back much better, genital area about 200% better than back.
    Olympic athletes in ancient Greece trained nude on the beach to optimise Test production.
    Vitamin D production may work similarly.

  99. @Anonymous
    This is one of the dumbest posts ever...going by your logic, then we should do nothing to stop wars, pandemics and weather disasters, since people will die one day anyway. In fact, the diseases and disabilities of old age kill 100,000 people each day, which is more than all infectious diseases combined. Does this mean that an "extra" 100,000-10,000,000 people dying from a pandemic doesn't matter? Because this is what you are saying.

    How many people died in the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki? I don't know, and I don't feel like fact checking now, but it can't be more than two or three times what the SARS2--COVID has already killed in America. Yes, the coronavirus is well on it's way to have atomic-bomb levels of casualties in America.

    going by your logic, then we should do nothing to stop…weather disasters

    Yeah. Everyone talks about the weather, but no one ever does anything about it.

    • Replies: @Hail

    stop…weather disasters
     

    Everyone talks about the weather, but no one ever does anything about it
     
    America's greatest hero, after the Revenrend Doctor Martin Luther King Jr., Rosa Parks, and Harriet Tubman, is obviously Antoni 'Corona Slayer' Fauci. Your post has no doubt given an underling lurker of Fauci The Corona Slayer's an idea, which he'll pass up the chain of command:

    As soon as Fauci the Great defeats Corona, by summer 2021, he'll get the work on this perfidious Weather Problem. Every year we are 'plagued' by these terrible thunderstorms. The Fauci Plan: Lock down potentially affected communities in thunderstorm season. We have to stop these things before they have a chance to kill. End Thunderstorms Now! Long Live King Fauci!

  100. Hail says: • Website
    @Hippopotamusdrome


    going by your logic, then we should do nothing to stop...weather disasters

     

    Yeah. Everyone talks about the weather, but no one ever does anything about it.

    stop…weather disasters

    Everyone talks about the weather, but no one ever does anything about it

    America’s greatest hero, after the Revenrend Doctor Martin Luther King Jr., Rosa Parks, and Harriet Tubman, is obviously Antoni ‘Corona Slayer’ Fauci. Your post has no doubt given an underling lurker of Fauci The Corona Slayer’s an idea, which he’ll pass up the chain of command:

    As soon as Fauci the Great defeats Corona, by summer 2021, he’ll get the work on this perfidious Weather Problem. Every year we are ‘plagued’ by these terrible thunderstorms. The Fauci Plan: Lock down potentially affected communities in thunderstorm season. We have to stop these things before they have a chance to kill. End Thunderstorms Now! Long Live King Fauci!

  101. Anonymous[330] • Disclaimer says:
    @anon
    This is utter nonsense: '1-5 million deaths by July is a very real possibility'. That would require tens of thousands of Covid deaths PER DAY. I would say we would need to redouble our efforts, but we would actually need to increase our efforts to get to the predicted millions of dead 10- to 50-fold. Unless machine-gunning or napalm-bombing entire neighborhoods suspected of Covid infections is an option, I don't see how it's possible by July, or ever.

    My spouse is a "frontline" physician also involved in management in a major hospital network in a major Northeastern metropolitan area (not NYC). So I know what the situation is. The hospitals are NOT being overwhelmed and likely won't be overwhelmed, during this predicted peak. While part of this is due to endless preparation, finding additional beds and resources, and increased call by critical care physicians and nurses, there has not been that much to do for the past month in terms of keeping COVID patients alive. There is an increased number of critically ill patients with COVID in ICUs, slowly growing, and they are mostly very old, very sick, or very obese - or all three. There is a stacking effect, because once they go on the ventilator, most stay on it for 2 weeks. Many of them die regardless, because they were on death's door already, COVID or not.

    I wish Trump had more healthy skepticism and listened less to the likes of Fauci who, I suspect, has ulterior motives. In his interview with Foxnews a couple of days, Fauci said he was not paying any attention to COVID models, even though this scaremongering was based almost entirely on modeling projections. Which, of course, have turned out to be way off.

    Also, viruses, this iteration of Corona included, are not 'alive' by most any definition. Not that it makes a difference in this case, but it just shows your level of understanding of what's going on.

    First of all, jackass, I am aware that viruses may or not may not be alive. I didn’t mention it because I didn’t consider it germaine to the discussion. You are actually wrong here: there is a *debate* whether viruses are live or not. There is no consensus that they are not alive.

    And 1-5 million deaths by July is a real possibility. Over 2,000 Americans died yesterday, while only 2 weeks ago there were only 100 days a day. It is not a linear progression but an *exponential* one. We could actually be seing 10,000-30,000 deaths day a month from now if quarantine is lifted which could result in 50-75% of the poipulation being infected.

    It’s funy for you to claim I don’t know what’s going on.

  102. “Yet, we also have laws protecting the privacy of your 1040 tax returns, but that hasn’t stopped Harvard economist Raj Chetty from getting his hands on “anonymized” 1040 data that nobody else had the gall to ask for…”

    And you know this how, Mr. Sailer?

    • Replies: @anon

    “Yet, we also have laws protecting the privacy of your 1040 tax returns, but that hasn’t stopped Harvard economist Raj Chetty from getting his hands on “anonymized” 1040 data that nobody else had the gall to ask for…”
     
    And you know this how, Mr. Sailer?

    Because he reads and notices things. Chetty's access to IRS data is no secret to intelligent people.

    Here is a search:
    https://duckduckgo.com/?q=%22raj+chetty%22+1040&t=brave&ia=web

    Here is a result:
    https://www.brookings.edu/blog/social-mobility-memos/2018/01/11/raj-chetty-in-14-charts-big-findings-on-opportunity-and-mobility-we-should-know/

    Here is the first sentence:

    Few scholars make as big an impact on their field as Professor Raj Chetty. As leader of the Equality of Opportunity Project, and with access to (anonymised) tax records, Chetty and his co-authors have transformed our understanding of social mobility in the U.S.
     
    Do you feel foolish? You should.
    Perhaps your search skills could use a little improvement?
    Or do you actually have another agenda here?

    What's the URL of your blog, again?
    , @Steve Sailer
    From reading and writing about Dr. Chetty's highly publicized projects for the last 7 years.
  103. @anon
    This is utter nonsense: '1-5 million deaths by July is a very real possibility'. That would require tens of thousands of Covid deaths PER DAY. I would say we would need to redouble our efforts, but we would actually need to increase our efforts to get to the predicted millions of dead 10- to 50-fold. Unless machine-gunning or napalm-bombing entire neighborhoods suspected of Covid infections is an option, I don't see how it's possible by July, or ever.

    My spouse is a "frontline" physician also involved in management in a major hospital network in a major Northeastern metropolitan area (not NYC). So I know what the situation is. The hospitals are NOT being overwhelmed and likely won't be overwhelmed, during this predicted peak. While part of this is due to endless preparation, finding additional beds and resources, and increased call by critical care physicians and nurses, there has not been that much to do for the past month in terms of keeping COVID patients alive. There is an increased number of critically ill patients with COVID in ICUs, slowly growing, and they are mostly very old, very sick, or very obese - or all three. There is a stacking effect, because once they go on the ventilator, most stay on it for 2 weeks. Many of them die regardless, because they were on death's door already, COVID or not.

    I wish Trump had more healthy skepticism and listened less to the likes of Fauci who, I suspect, has ulterior motives. In his interview with Foxnews a couple of days, Fauci said he was not paying any attention to COVID models, even though this scaremongering was based almost entirely on modeling projections. Which, of course, have turned out to be way off.

    Also, viruses, this iteration of Corona included, are not 'alive' by most any definition. Not that it makes a difference in this case, but it just shows your level of understanding of what's going on.

    “My spouse is a “frontline” physician also involved in management in a major hospital network in a major Northeastern metropolitan area (not NYC).”

    Why be coy? What city?

    “I wish Trump had more healthy skepticism…”

    LOL, he did in the beginning. He essentially referred to Covid-19 as no big deal. It took a meeting with a Fox News host to set him straight. Ask your spouse if he/she trusts a non-medical professional Jew like Kushner to manage this crisis, their reasons why, and get back to us.

  104. anon[145] • Disclaimer says:
    @Corvinus
    "Yet, we also have laws protecting the privacy of your 1040 tax returns, but that hasn’t stopped Harvard economist Raj Chetty from getting his hands on “anonymized” 1040 data that nobody else had the gall to ask for..."

    And you know this how, Mr. Sailer?

    “Yet, we also have laws protecting the privacy of your 1040 tax returns, but that hasn’t stopped Harvard economist Raj Chetty from getting his hands on “anonymized” 1040 data that nobody else had the gall to ask for…”

    And you know this how, Mr. Sailer?

    Because he reads and notices things. Chetty’s access to IRS data is no secret to intelligent people.

    Here is a search:
    https://duckduckgo.com/?q=%22raj+chetty%22+1040&t=brave&ia=web

    Here is a result:
    https://www.brookings.edu/blog/social-mobility-memos/2018/01/11/raj-chetty-in-14-charts-big-findings-on-opportunity-and-mobility-we-should-know/

    Here is the first sentence:

    Few scholars make as big an impact on their field as Professor Raj Chetty. As leader of the Equality of Opportunity Project, and with access to (anonymised) tax records, Chetty and his co-authors have transformed our understanding of social mobility in the U.S.

    Do you feel foolish? You should.
    Perhaps your search skills could use a little improvement?
    Or do you actually have another agenda here?

    What’s the URL of your blog, again?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    I want Chetty to apply his very special set of skills to get around data privacy roadblocks and come up with infection rates by occupation.
  105. @anon

    “Yet, we also have laws protecting the privacy of your 1040 tax returns, but that hasn’t stopped Harvard economist Raj Chetty from getting his hands on “anonymized” 1040 data that nobody else had the gall to ask for…”
     
    And you know this how, Mr. Sailer?

    Because he reads and notices things. Chetty's access to IRS data is no secret to intelligent people.

    Here is a search:
    https://duckduckgo.com/?q=%22raj+chetty%22+1040&t=brave&ia=web

    Here is a result:
    https://www.brookings.edu/blog/social-mobility-memos/2018/01/11/raj-chetty-in-14-charts-big-findings-on-opportunity-and-mobility-we-should-know/

    Here is the first sentence:

    Few scholars make as big an impact on their field as Professor Raj Chetty. As leader of the Equality of Opportunity Project, and with access to (anonymised) tax records, Chetty and his co-authors have transformed our understanding of social mobility in the U.S.
     
    Do you feel foolish? You should.
    Perhaps your search skills could use a little improvement?
    Or do you actually have another agenda here?

    What's the URL of your blog, again?

    I want Chetty to apply his very special set of skills to get around data privacy roadblocks and come up with infection rates by occupation.

  106. @Corvinus
    "Yet, we also have laws protecting the privacy of your 1040 tax returns, but that hasn’t stopped Harvard economist Raj Chetty from getting his hands on “anonymized” 1040 data that nobody else had the gall to ask for..."

    And you know this how, Mr. Sailer?

    From reading and writing about Dr. Chetty’s highly publicized projects for the last 7 years.

  107. When Tonic water is available at the local grocery stores and masks are available people will feel more comfortable going back to work and shopping etc…

    Masks are still not available , neither are gloves…nor is hydroxychloroquine available at any pharmacies in New Jersey. Frustrating that we cannot even purchase hand sanitizer or tonic water at Amazon.

  108. @Anonymous

    C.J. Hopkins here on this very website wrote a very well-named article called The War on Death*
     
    Was that Israel Shamir’s essay?

    No, C.J. Hopkins, starts with a “C”, then and “J” Ends in “Hopkins”, not “Shamir” (talk aboutcher reading problems) – HERE.

  109. @Anonymous
    I mean *ageing* kills 100,000 people each day Worldwide. Nowhere did I imply that coronavirus kills that much every day. Coronavirus has killed 100,000 Worldwide in 3 months. You clearly can't read.

    And this virus can absolutely kill millions. Just yesterday it killed over 2,000 people in America alone. And that is just in one country. Worldwide, it is killing significantly more than this every day. If this goes on for several more months, as it could, there could absolutely be millions of deaths. This is a worst case scenario, but it is plausible.

    I really can’t read what you didn’t write. Are you a woman? I asked you if you meant that normal deaths are 100,000 a year in the US or worldwide. You answered just now, and that sounds in the ballpark.

    See, you keep switching between the US and the world with your made-up numbers. Your original comment had numbers in the millions dead IN THE US. There won’t be millions of deaths from the Kung Flu over the next several months. You are deluded. If by “several” you mean 3 or 4, then there will 3/4 million deaths or so, but that’s from normal aging, disease, and occasional accidents.

    Turn off the panic fest, man, and get outside.

    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob

    Turn off the panic fest, man, and get outside.
     
    Too late here, Achmed. It's 55 and windy today and people are walking down the street by themselves with masks on. I was about the only person in the grocery store who was not masked. All this panic over a bad case of the flu.
  110. @Achmed E. Newman
    I really can't read what you didn't write. Are you a woman? I asked you if you meant that normal deaths are 100,000 a year in the US or worldwide. You answered just now, and that sounds in the ballpark.

    See, you keep switching between the US and the world with your made-up numbers. Your original comment had numbers in the millions dead IN THE US. There won't be millions of deaths from the Kung Flu over the next several months. You are deluded. If by "several" you mean 3 or 4, then there will 3/4 million deaths or so, but that's from normal aging, disease, and occasional accidents.

    Turn off the panic fest, man, and get outside.

    Turn off the panic fest, man, and get outside.

    Too late here, Achmed. It’s 55 and windy today and people are walking down the street by themselves with masks on. I was about the only person in the grocery store who was not masked. All this panic over a bad case of the flu.

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