The Unz Review • An Alternative Media Selection
A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media
 TeasersiSteve Blog
A Commenter on His Vaccine Trial
Email This Page to Someone

 Remember My Information



=>

Bookmark Toggle AllToCAdd to LibraryRemove from Library • BShow CommentNext New CommentNext New ReplyRead More
ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
AgreeDisagreeThanksLOLTroll
These buttons register your public Agreement, Disagreement, Thanks, LOL, or Troll with the selected comment. They are ONLY available to recent, frequent commenters who have saved their Name+Email using the 'Remember My Information' checkbox, and may also ONLY be used three times during any eight hour period.
Ignore Commenter Follow Commenter
Search Text Case Sensitive  Exact Words  Include Comments
List of Bookmarks

iSteve commenter FPD72 writes

RVS: “Third, the vaccine trials offer no proof that vaccination reduces the risk of death if administered to old, sick people, because these people are not in the trials.”

I participated in the Pfizer trial. I am 70 years old. I am overweight but not obese (BMI 27.4). I have high blood pressure that is controlled with Lisinopril. I have elevated A1C but am not diabetic although I am taking Metformin.

People who volunteer for vaccine trials probably tend to be more health-literate (such as FPD72) and concerned about the pandemic than average. So the fact that not that many people even in the placebo arms of the initial Phase 3 trials came down with symptomatic cases during the early fall lull in the storm may be due to volunteers being more careful about their health than the average.

Maybe you don’t consider me old or sick (immunocompromised), but most people would.

As I’ve been pointing out for some time, the technical term “comorbidity” confuses people, many of whom assume that it means something like “another cause of death,” when it actually means “the simultaneous presence of two or more diseases or medical conditions in a patient.” Older Americans tend to have several comorbidities, such as high blood pressure, which can be survived for a long time.

So, a lot of people in some danger from COVID due to age and comorbidities are not exactly on death’s door sans COVID.

Granted, Biden medical ethics advisor Ezekiel Emanuel argued in a 2014 article for the Atlantic “Why I Hope to Die at 75:that you aren’t likely to contribute a major novel idea to human thought after age 75:

It is true, people can continue to be productive past 75—to write and publish, to draw, carve, and sculpt, to compose. But there is no getting around the data. By definition, few of us can be exceptions. Moreover, we need to ask how much of what “Old Thinkers,” as Harvey C. Lehman called them in his 1953 Age and Achievement, produce is novel rather than reiterative and repetitive of previous ideas. The age-creativity curve—especially the decline—endures across cultures and throughout history, suggesting some deep underlying biological determinism probably related to brain plasticity.

On the other hand, not all that many of us contribute a major novel idea to human thought before age 75 either (a vast group to which history may someday adjudge Ezekiel Emanuel to have belonged, if it remembers him at all), but that doesn’t mean our lives aren’t worth living.

Your grandchildren, for example, might wish to know you better before they lose you.

FPD72 continues:

I received the vaccine. I suspected as much from the effects of the second injection (101.3 fever for four days, chills and joint aches for two days) and confirmed it with an antibodies test at an independent lab.

A certain percentage of trial volunteers in the vaccine arm experienced good evidence that they got the real thing rather than the placebo. Conversely, members of the placebo arm would tend to have a clue from their lack of vaccine side effect symptoms that they maybe got the placebo. Since volunteers tend to be pretty intelligent about health matters, it’s likely that people in the placebo arm subsequently tend to behave more carefully on average than those in the vaccine arm, which would somewhat diminish artificially the reported efficacy. So the actual efficacy might be a little higher than even the highly successful trials suggest.

Am I immune? Who knows? But I am now living life again; church, shopping, indoor gun range, babysitting grandkids, etc.

Older Americans tend to have a fair amount of money to spend on their wants, but less urgent wants. They’d like to go to the shoe store and try on new shoes, but not as much as they did when they were 25. The risk to their health, the hassle of wearing masks, and so forth, makes the prospect of spending money less fun-sounding than it did in 2019, so, all-in-all, why do it?

Hence, the economy likely won’t fully revive until older Americans feel confident that going out and spending money isn’t much of a threat to their health. Vaccines are the most obvious way to get back to the good old days.

 
Hide 199 CommentsLeave a Comment
Commenters to Ignore...to FollowEndorsed Only
Trim Comments?
    []
  1. steinitz and smyslov lasted.

    they were so good in their 60s that they may not have actually been any weaker than they were i their 20s. it’s just that younger people were better than they’d ever been.

    • Replies: @theMann
  2. Hence, the economy likely won’t fully revive until older Americans feel confident that going out and spending money isn’t much of a threat to their health. Vaccines are the most obvious way to get back to the good old days.

    So it’s the septuagenarians who are responsible for 75% of small businesses closing for good (according to Yelp)? Nothing to do with draconian proclamations and restrictions from Statehouses? Those pix from 2019 of a Buffalo Wild Wings are crowded with merry 80-year-olds?

    I’m 67, and just moved to a tiny retirement community in the middle of the Arizona desert. But over the previous 35 years, my tenure in Los Angeles (five miles from you, Steve) became restricted by clogged freeways and decaying infrastructure. I still had a cultural cornucopia at my fingertips, but as I got older it became impossible to get to it. I could no longer trust my peripheral neuropathy and lagging reflexes to drive on those streets.

    Regarding your endorsement of Vaccines For Everybody, the less said about that, the better.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  3. prosa123 says:

    I certainly wouldn’t consider FPD72 old and sick, especially in comparison to many of the people who are dying of the virus.

  4. Charon says:

    Biden medical ethics advisor Ezekiel Emanuel

    Did he also mention that old people tend to vote for the wrong political party? Shouldn’t we off people at age 55 just to be on the safe side? Come to think of it, why not cut to the chase and execute everyone who voted the wrong way in this past election?

    I’d say that Democracy Demands It. What say you? Consider your response carefully. Executioners are standing by.

    • Replies: @AndrewR
  5. Anonymous[166] • Disclaimer says:

    The second injection causes 101.3 fever for four days, chills and joint aches for two days?

    For the majority of people under 60, that may be worse than getting the actual virus.

    • Agree: Polynikes
  6. Anon7 says:

    I’m surprised by the number of people who truly believe that vaccines are a scam, at best, or some sort of government control plot, at worst, and have no intention of getting a Covid19 vaccine. I know plenty of people who won’t get one; one of them is a nurse. Also, it appears that minorities are even less likely than whites to want one.

    Will we be permitted to “return to normal” if, say, fewer than half of Americans get the Covid19 vaccine? If most blacks refuse the vaccine, will we all be told to wear masks anyway?

    • Replies: @Anon7
    , @AndrewR
  7. I’m pretty much the same as FPD, except that I’m a youthful 66 and haven’t been in a vaccine trial. And, ever since sometime in late March when I heard my gut instinct tell me that the world out there is the same one I’ve lived my life in so far, that I was still breathing and felt like I’d go on doing so for some years yet, I’ve gone everyplace that would let me in and done everything available to do, not wearing a goddamned Sickness Kabuki mask except in gun-to-the-head situations, like you have to go to the dentist or your primary-care.

    I can’t speak for the other geezers, of course. But for myself, I hereby declare: I make no claim on younger people to increase infinitesimally my own life expectancy. I hereby plead: for God’s sake, stop the virus bullshit. Open everything that remains, full capacity, full speed, no stupid East Asian panic masks required. (Diaper your own face voluntarily if you so choose.) Give the younger people a chance at living their lives. Please.

  8. @Nancy Pelosi's Latina Maid

    How did movie theaters do where they weren’t locked down? Here’s Sweden’s box office for 2020:

    https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/by-year/2020/?area=SE

    But I’m sure if you just lecture the Swedes even more loudly on how there is NOTHING TO FEAR from the virus (but much to fear from the vaccine), they’ll all flock to the movie theaters again like they were doing back in January. How can that strategy fail to work?

  9. @prosa123

    I certainly wouldn’t consider FPD72 old and sick, especially in comparison to many of the people who are dying of the virus.

    And neither would I.

    These are “normal” aspects of aging. Arteries get a little stiffer, you liver isn’t quite the filter it used to be, and your sugar metabolism is getting weaker by the year.

    I’ve looked at some of the cornoner data in various cities, and just a quick perusal shows that the really dangerous co-morbidities with the Wuhan are COPD, heart disease, and compromised immune systems, especially for cancer patients, who presumably have had/are having chemo.

    You know why there are lot of COPD commercials on? A lot of people have COPD.

    In other words, lung function issues put you seriously at risk if you catch the little bugger.

    One of the startling cases early on was that of all-pro Denver Broncos defensive player Von Miller, arguably one of the fittest people on the planet. It laid him pretty low. Later on, I found out he has had asthma since childhood.

    Ah, THAT explained it.

    • Replies: @anon
  10. As I’ve been pointing out for some time, the technical term “comorbidity” confuses people, many of whom assume that it means something like “another cause of death,” when it actually means “the simultaneous presence of two or more diseases or medical conditions in a patient.”

    That may be the case, the confusion you explain here. However, personally, I think you may be confused yourself on exactly what the confusion actually is, for those of us that understand how much of an overblown PanicFest this has been. No, it doesn’t mean “another cause of death”. It means that the actual cause of death may not be so easy to ascertain. From the big incentives, both monetary, and political, to make the COVID-19 into Black Death 2.0, to me co-morbidities make the number of deaths FROM the virus hard to determine vs. the “official” numbers. The confusion there is purposeful.

    I do hope Mr. FPD is here for a long time to come, commenting on iSteve or whatever. I am glad there is a virus to help those at great risk. I’d say the same for some virus created for one of the every-decade-or-so severe flu’s that come around, generally from the Orient.

    The trick is to stay the hell out of the hospital. That’s why Grandma wanted to us all to wear masks on Thanksgiving. Me wife wanted us not to come at all, so I told her I’d leave it up to Grandma. She insisted we come but wear the masks. We didn’t want to create a reason for her to end up in the hospital.

    • Replies: @Polynikes
  11. Blubb says:

    Very stupid of him to get the RNA vaccine. In previous attempts at such vaccines, they have been shown to cause severe autoimmune diseases and make you more likely to develop a worse case of the virus than what you’d had if you hadn’t taken the vaccine.

    That’s why they never received any approval, anywhere.

    Hence why all the companies want to be indemnified against any side effects and complaints.

    Also, we absolutely have no clue of long term effects of this gene changing vaccines. It literally modifies your cells. Like cancer. What if, in ten years, 10% of vaccinated people DO get cancer?

    And lastly, Covid is just a more severe flu. It’s pretty much over. It wasn’t very deadly to begin with.

    Not at all worth the risks of taking an untested vaccination. Or shutting shit down, for that matter.

  12. theMann says:
    @unz is CIA

    Korchnoi even more so, but,

    It might help to explain that these were chess GM’s, the first two world champions, and Korchnoi just missing.

    • Replies: @Keypusher
  13. Anon7 says:
    @Anon7

    I’ve just been informed that of course blacks are suspicious of the Covid19 vaccine – and who is to blame? You are, you white people, because you are responsible for the Tuskegee experiments.

    So, I guess we’ll be forced to wear black masks emblazoned with “Black Lives Matter” to show our solidarity and awareness of black health concerns. And historical racism.

  14. theMann says:
    @Anonymous

    Well duh……

    Not to mention the “illness” is a one and done, the long term vaccine side effects are unknown, and will be unknowable, and irreversible.

    • Agree: Adam Smith
    • Disagree: James Speaks
  15. @Blubb

    “Virus safe, vaccine dangerous!”

    From a PR standpoint, what could be a more persuasive message?

    • Replies: @Anon
    , @Anonymous
    , @Redman
  16. @Reactionary Utopian

    I.e., let’er rip! as I said some months ago in this space…

    Actually, I think a vaccine could be a good way of combining “let’er rip” with some protections for the vulnerable oldies and fatties.

    But still, “let’er rip.” If we can’t and we adopt shutting down society for any new illness with low mortality but without a vaccine, then we are putting ourselves in the position of shuttering small businesses without notice at any time. Who would invest their treasure and time in entrepreneurship under those circumstances?

    At this point, I would seriously consider moving to the hinterlands to be a goat farmer, but my wife won’t hear of it.

    • Replies: @Anon
  17. LadyTheo says:
    @Blubb

    Your arguments are unpersuasive.

    If this vaccine “may make you more likely to develop a worse case of the virus..,” then that would have shown up in the results. Didn’t happen.

    Your assertions about autoimmune effects are speculation, not fact.

    Whether a vaccine is necessary for a virus that is not particularly lethal is open to debate–although even that is probably not correct, since the populace has been terrified into believing that normal life cannot resume until the “danger” has been eradicated.

    • Replies: @Adam Smith
    , @Blubb
  18. anon[124] • Disclaimer says:
    @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

    In other words, lung function issues put you seriously at risk if you catch the little bugger.

    COVID-2 is a vascular disease that is spread via respiratory routes. It causes blood blisters in the toes and tongue, but also other places…like the lungs. Leakage of vascular fluid into the lungs is a bad thing.

    A professional associate in her early 30’s is also asthmatic. I need to have a chat with her about zinc, vit. D, etc.

  19. Anon[240] • Disclaimer says:

    There were many studies of the decay of antibodies after having the actual Covid disease itself, but I have not seen any regarding the decay of vaccine-produced antibodies. Let’s see, the vaccines were given when, July, something like that? So, by now, you would think they have tested for the persistence of the vaccine antibodies. Is this a secret?

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
  20. @theMann

    Nah, here’s the CDC graph of total deaths (all causes) by week since the beginning of 2017. The second week of April hit 35% above expected deaths for that week based on the recent past. Since then, not as bad, but it’s getting worse lately.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard

  21. Ezekiel Emmanuel confirms my belief that an “ethicist” is somebody who can’t tell right from wrong — or can, but finds it inconvenient.

    • Agree: utu
    • Replies: @TTSSYF
  22. Anonymous[437] • Disclaimer says:

    The age-creativity curve—especially the decline—endures across cultures and throughout history, suggesting some deep underlying biological determinism probably related to brain plasticity.

    True, but nobody asks or expects of old people to come up with new ideas. Rather they expect them to preserve and transmit valuable old ones to the younger generation.

    Wisdom and sages are associated with old folks across cultures and throughout history.

  23. “Hence, the economy likely won’t fully revive until older Americans feel confident that going out and spending money isn’t much of a threat to their health. Vaccines are the most obvious way to get back to the good old days.”

    There is something called Amazon, Steve, where more and more consumers forego shopping in public for shopping online. By the middle of the 2020’s, a majority of US’s total consumer purchases will be made online and not in public. The up and coming generations (e.g. Millennial, Gen. Z) once they hit their senior citizen yrs, will only recall making most of their purchases online and very few things out in public.

    Aside from Amazon, the sedentary life is greatly encouraged by playing video games, another thing that older generations (Baby Boomers, Silents) have little to no direct connection to. And certainly gaming has not been a major thing of their daily lives the way it has for the younger generations. In that sense, the younger generations are being well trained to avoid too much outdoor contacts and socializing with people face to face.

  24. Keypusher says:
    @theMann

    Steinitz was the first, Smyslov the seventh world champion. Replacing (briefly) another excellent older player, Botvinnik. But don’t forget the second WC, Emanuel Lasker, still a powerhouse in his sixties.

    Youth is definitely served these days, though.

  25. Anon[292] • Disclaimer says:
    @Steve Sailer

    Why not tried and true technology, say AstraZeneca?
    Specially if vaccination might be annual or one has had a cancer scare.

  26. Anon[292] • Disclaimer says:
    @Chrisnonymous

    @ I would seriously consider moving to the hinterlands to be a goat farmer, but my wife won’t hear of it.

    Smart lady.

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
  27. @theMann

    Thanks for the interesting, informative link.

    I’m surprised it took the editors four days to retract this obvious crimethink.

    The evidence of fraud is overwhelming, if one only opens their eyes.

    The Great CoronaPanic of 2020 is a scam.

    Panicfest is a mass hypnosis, mass hysteria event and a crime against humanity.

    Insane and Satanic indeed.

  28. @LadyTheo

    The populace has been hypnotized into believing that normal life cannot resume until the “danger” has been eradicated.

  29. theMann says:
    @Steve Sailer

    Yes, and Governor Cuomo singlehandedly managed to move that curve when he murdered several thousand elderly New Yorkers by exposing them to the Flu Variant then tearing through the population; not to mention the Medical Community’s murder of thousands more by putting them on ventilators

    Since those of us bothering to dig up the facts know that:

    Everything Public Officials are saying is a lie (And not just on Covid-19)

    Everything the Media connected Medical Community is saying is a lie (starting with the brazen altering of Death Certificates for money)

    Everything Big Pharma tells us is a lie

    All the data each side throws at each other is based on a foundation of quicksand.

    They only thing we may know for a certainty is that dead is dead, the number of death certificates is being counted correctly, you know, just like votes, and that the difference in death totals isn’t enough to give a fried fart sideways about. Especially since the lockdowns have directly led to a huge uptick in OD deaths, suicides, and so forth So, just like back in March when I gave my first cost/benefit analysis, let me again expose Covid-19 as a God Damned Lie.

    Increase in deaths:
    1. Covid-19
    2. Suicides.
    3. Drug Overdose, alcoholism ( I understand that drinking is up massively)
    4. Murder, Child Abuse.
    5. Missed medical diagnoses of acute illnesses.
    6. Missed Medical diagnoses of Chronic Illnesses – tbd in the long run.
    7. Increased death total by importation of severely ill Mexicans into the US border Medical community. (Very popular in El Paso).
    8. Increased deaths from lung scarring, tuberculosis, bacterial respiratory illness, and so forth due to rewearing dirty masks.
    9. Deaths due to Economic distress.
    10. Stress related Heart attacks. ( ( and 10 don’t really need much separation.)

    Decrease in deaths:
    1. Travel related deaths.
    2. On the Job deaths.
    3. Reduction in medical error hospital deaths due to much lower level of hospitalizations.

    So….. If there were really a quarter of a million Covid-19 deaths in the country in eight months, AND the unarguable increase in deaths caused by the lockdowns, then the total number of deaths in the country should be jumping off the charts. It isn’t. Yet…..

    So, the deaths are ticking up? Well, no kidding- influenza is a malnutrition related disease, caused by lack of Thiamine, C and D. So driving people in doors, while depressing them (which drives down Thiamine absorption) is going to cause an absolute dilly of a flu season. By design. And lockdown related and direct Economic destruction deaths will snowball eventually.

    In the meantime, we have an entire nation of hysterical two year olds screaming about masks, blubbering for vaccines, and blaming other people for the condition of their own health instead of acting responsibly. I guess that whole “lose weight, eat right” thing is just too damned hard?
    Then, The Lewis and Clark Expedition walked from St Louis, MO, to Astoria, OR, and back when most of its members had both Malaria and Syphilis.
    Now, the entire country circles the drain in relentless, hysterical panic over a flu virus.

    Thank God no one can be objective, because the first thing you would understand is how pathetic you are.

  30. @Anon

    Actually, she doesn’t like “New Normal” either (and yes, they are talking about New Normal in Japan too), but she is addicted to city life.

    At my university, students are expected to maintain social distancing at all times (there are monitors with arm bands, like modern-day red guards, watching the cafeterias and lounges, where each student sits silently alone to eat lunch or drink coffee), wear masks at all times, and wipe down their desks with alcohol before every class. I have to take each student’s temperature before class begins, and I am expected to eject them from class if their mask slips down under nose.

    Remember, these are all fit late-teens/early-twenties kids. Insane!

    My boss (typical middle-manager accommodationist mindset) is now talking like this is going to be permanent life from now on. “We probably can’t go back, even with a vaccine.”

    The problem is that the protection measures are temporary but ongoing. Two-week measures ad infinitum is the same as a permanent change. So, politicians who aren’t willing to let’er rip are making de facto decisions for permanent changes.

  31. @Steve Sailer

    I would hope that one who appreciates freedom and the wisdom of the regular American (or Swede for that matter) could acknowledge the difference between government mandated shutdowns of dubious legal and scientific authority and the right of individuals to make their own entertainment choices.

    Movie theaters are moot point, as I think that movie theaters, mosh pits and techno night clubs could all be shut down as a reasonable restriction to stop infection, but still not pursue policies that bar religious gatherings or bankrupt all small businesses. That seems like a reasonable trade-off.

    Speaking of box office performances, how is the box office doing in China these days? Strangely, the Chinese Box Office is on the rebound, as Variety deftly explains…

    “Because the pandemic is under control in China now, the audience feels going to the theaters is a safe thing to do, and the audience’s film-going habit has resumed very quickly,” says Tony Gao, partner at Chinese consultancy Ent Group, and general manager of its Shanghai office. “When there are high-quality movies in theaters, people will go buy tickets, like before.”

    Good thing this is all explained “the pandemic is under control in China now”. In the best of times, Variety is often a propaganda sheet, but this really pushes the envelope. How exactly did China get the pandemic under control and allow movie theaters to reopen?

    Is anyone maybe looking into this? Seems like it would be of interest to governments and academics around the world, least of all maybe the movie studios would be slightly intrigued? But no one is apparently very interested for some reason. It is one thing to write off the Swedes as standoffish Nordic weirdos who might not spread the disease, but how does one explain that the most populous nation in the world apparently putting the pandemic under control?

    Possibly the answer is that COVID-19 is a virulent version of the Asian flu and it has largely already run its course. A terrible disease, especially for people over 80 years old or the immunocompromised, but not one to eliminate all hard won civil liberties, impoverish your population and bankrupt your national and local governments over.

    The pandemic has run its course, if you stop testing (which is highly inaccurate), the disease largely goes away.

    • Replies: @epebble
  32. Vaccines are the most obvious way to get back to the good old days.

    How about placebos for everyone. According to the studies, they have the same effect on health outcomes as the vaccines. Never underestimate the power of positive thinking.

    • Agree: TTSSYF
    • Disagree: Jack D
    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
  33. @theMann

    The peak so far was 35% national deaths above long term average for that time of year in the week ending April 11, 2020. We are probably back at around 20% above average today.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard

    • Replies: @Clifford Brown
  34. @Steve Sailer

    I would be interested in an independent audit of the CDC data. Perhaps a few years from now when the nation can never recover from the utter devastation caused by the absurd lockdown policies this will take place. Sweden with no lockdown did not experience a 20% spike in national death tolls.

    Still the median age of death is the 78 years, basically equal to average American life expectancy.

    • Replies: @Jack D
  35. Anon[314] • Disclaimer says:
    @Chrisnonymous

    My boss (typical middle-manager accommodationist mindset) is now talking like this is going to be permanent life from now on. “We probably can’t go back, even with a vaccine.”

    When this is all over, we need to pass legislation that grants individuals, businesses, and institutions something resembling qualified immunity for disease transmission. Basically, unless you act in a malicious or grossly negligent way, you shouldn’t face criminal or civil penalties if someone catches an infection in a setting you control. This would more or less put us back to the status quo ante COVID. Otherwise, public life will be totally destroyed by lawyers.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  36. utu says:
    @Reactionary Utopian

    …no stupid East Asian panic masks required… Diaper your own face voluntarily…

    Some countermeasures are effective only when they are universal. The requirement of blackout during a war can’t b adopted on a voluntary basis. It must be universal. The same goes with masking. The enforcement is necessary. People behavior can be changed for a greater good by legal means and by enforcement.

    In late 19th century a campaign against spitting was launched in America and Europe after the discovery of the cause of tuberculosis by Robert Koch.

    “New York City became the first American metropolis to ban spitting on sidewalks, the floors in public buildings, and on public transit, giving officials the ability to slap wayward spitters with a fine or a jail sentence. Over the next 15 years, almost 150 other U.S. cities followed suit and banned public spitting”

    “The New York City health department and private groups like the National Tuberculosis Association, the Women’s Health Protective Association, and the Brooklyn Anti-Tuberculosis Committee generated anti-spitting slogans such as “Spitting Is Dangerous, Indecent, and Against the Law,” “Beware the Careless Spitter,” and “No Spit, No Consumption.” They made posters decrying spitting (among other unhealthy habits) and reminding people of the ban. Members of the public were encouraged to confront defiant spitters, or, at the very least, give them the stink eye. ”

    “New York City officials followed through on the threat of punitive action for errant spitters. More than 2500 people were arrested under the statute between 1896 and 1910, though most only received a small fine—on average, less than $1 (in 1896, that was the equivalent of about $30 today)”

    The campaign was successful in the long run. Unlike in China public spitting is no longer acceptable in the Western.

    What’s with all the spitting?
    https://www.tripadvisor.com/ShowTopic-g294211-i642-k5305825-o10-What_s_with_all_the_spitting-China.html
    “Just returned from first visit to Beijing and Shanghai. Couldn’t walk around for more than 5 minutes without hearing a local horking up phlegm and spitting it wherever they happened to be. Once I was standing next to a police officer in a subway station who spit into the trash can, but everyone else just didn’t care where they spit.”

    Whether the campaign against the spitting in 19th/20th century contributed to reducing tarnsmision of TB we do not know. But we must agree it was a good thing though I am sure many libertarians would oppose it and consider it as another example of government petty tyranny and would even argue that China was freer country because spiting there was universal.

  37. Polynikes says:
    @Steve Sailer

    Have to have movies to have a box office. Cinema is not particularly something homegrown for most nations. For sure, plenty of Swedes avoided the theater out of precaution, but many others avoided it out of boredom.

    Other metrics are a better comparison.

  38. Polynikes says:
    @utu

    There’s scant evidence making works. And when confronted with that fact the maskers cry “everyone has to buy in. Real masking hasn’t been tried yet!” Hhmm…I’ve heard that lamentation of failed ideas before.

    • Replies: @Travis
  39. Anonymous[217] • Disclaimer says:
    @Steve Sailer

    “The goal of the vaccine is to make us safe!”

    • Replies: @Jack D
  40. Sweden with no lockdown did not experience a 20% spike in national death tolls.

    No one–that i’ve heard of–is getting a 20% bump in death rate for the year.

    Because of reporting lags, it’s hard to estimate the complete year against baseline. The data i’ve seen, plus some quick and dirty back of the envelope, Sweden looks to be coming in around 95 thousand deaths–maybe a 5% bump on the 90Kish they’ve been running per year.

    The US looks to be headed toward a 10% bump for 2020. We have a fatter, more diabetic population.

    ~~

    Still the median age of death is the 78 years, basically equal to average American life expectancy.

    I’d read 80. But yeah. the really striking thing about the epidemic is the death profile from the Xi virus is almost exactly the same as the general death profile. Noise aside it’s killing the same demos in the same ratios, it’s just bumped up the killing a bit.

    • Replies: @Clifford Brown
  41. Polynikes says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    People would be much less impressed with the vaccine if the same protocols in diagnosing the rona used in vaccine trials (strict diagnosis based on symptoms and a positive test) were abandoned for the ridiculous standards we currently use to assign covid as the cause of every malady that popped up over the last nine months.

  42. Congrats FPD72 on getting into the Pfizer trial and lucking into the vaccine arm. It must be damn nice to be completely done with this nonsense and moving on. Well done!

    Steve never posted a sign-up link, so i just didn’t know how to get on-board.

  43. @Chrisnonymous

    At my university, students are expected to maintain social distancing at all times (there are monitors with arm bands, like modern-day red guards, watching the cafeterias and lounges, where each student sits silently alone to eat lunch or drink coffee),

    Holy cow. What a pathetic bleak world.

    How do the kids meet up, fall in love, make out, make love?

    You learn from books. It doesn’t cost $25–$70,000. You go to college–ok for the credential–but mainly to have fun and meet your future spouse. Otherwise … big ‘effing waste of money.

    • Replies: @Alexander Turok
  44. @Chrisnonymous

    The University of Notre Dame decided over the summer that they would have the fall semester on campus. I know a kid who’s an undergrad there so I’ve been following to see how that decision would play out. They’ve helpfully kept detailed stats and posted them online: https://here.nd.edu/our-approach/dashboard/

    The semester has just ended. (They started early and finished at Thanksgiving to keep students from leaving and then returning.) Ultimately 1,431 undergraduates tested positive for COVID during the semester, which is more than 15% of the undergrad student body. The kid I know was one of them- it was basically a bad cold and he had to quarantine for a while. He told me that as far as he knew, none of the students ended up in the hospital.

    There were some grad students and university employees who got COVID as well, but none of them died. Fr. John Jenkins, the president of the university, got it and recovered with no issues. He seems to have caught it at the infamous Rose Garden ceremony for Amy Coney Barrett (an ND Law School professor), since he tested negative at the White House but positive several days later.

    • Thanks: That Would Be Telling
    • Replies: @prosa123
  45. Travis says:
    @Polynikes

    there actually is evidence that masks do not work. The Danish study indicated no benefit from wearing surgical masks verse not wearing a mask. The CDC knew masks were not effective in preventing infections, as did the WHO and all previous studies on masks show no benefit to wearing cloth masks, which is what most people seem to be wearing.

    • Replies: @utu
    , @Jack D
  46. @AnotherDad

    The data i’ve seen, plus some quick and dirty back of the envelope, Sweden looks to be coming in around 95 thousand deaths–maybe a 5% bump on the 90Kish they’ve been running per year.

    If you look at the ten year trend, Sweden’s 2020 numbers will be line with their average and below several of the years in the past decade. Still the numbers are lagging so we have to be careful about drawing conclusions.

    As for median age of death in the U.S., I am being generous with the 78 number as some results are higher. Regardless, the CDC can find a COVID death where the deceased has not tested positive for the virus and in those who test positive, but have no symptoms. Lo and behold with these standards, the median age of death just happens to track with average age people die in the United States.

    The American spike, if there is one, is likely due to our obesity and diversity. Why doesn’t the government shut down all the fast food national chains to save lives? Embracing an aggressive national anti-obesity campaign would be the logical response to COVID, but that of course will never happen.

    • Agree: Travis
  47. @AnotherDad

    The average age at first marriage for men is now 30, for women it’s 28. That’s for everyone, the number for the college-educated is going to be even higher. So few college students are going to be thinking in terms of “meeting a future spouse.”

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/371933/median-age-of-us-americans-at-their-first-wedding/

    And anyway, there are no restrictions on doing stuff outside. I’m sure a lot of men are saying “thank God for the bat” because now they have corona as an excuse to take women on dates to the park where they don’t have to spend money.

  48. Steve Sailer’s doing well in the post-Trump era:

  49. Peterike says:
    @utu

    “ Unlike in China public spitting is no longer acceptable in the Western.”

    Clearly you’ve never been to a Chinatown.

    • Replies: @utu
  50. @Steve Sailer

    Once upon a time, if you went to a movie or otherwise dared to leave your house you were taking a chance that you might get measles, TB, typhoid fever, malaria, smallpox, scarlet fever, diphtheria, croup, influenza, cholera, dysentery, plague, yellow fever, and leprosy.

    Yet, our brave ancestors were willing to take the risk to go see a movie. Even with the dread covid raging, seeing a sold-out movie today would be less dangerous than just being a regular moviegoer in the past.

    How far in the past would we have to go to reach the time when it was as dangerous as with covid?

    Well, in the U.S., “the death rate from infectious diseases dropped from about 800 deaths per 100,000 people in 1900 to 46 deaths per 100,000 people in 2014.” https://www.livescience.com/56968-infectious-disease-deaths-united-states-100-years.html. Meanwhile, covid has supposedly killed about 150 per 100K. Adding covid thus takes the total to about 200 deaths per year.

    This equates approximately to the general infectious disease risk in 1940. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/768249

    So going to a covid infected movie today is probably about as dangerous as it was for our parents or grandparents to go see Gone with the Wind or the Wizard of Oz in 1939. For those under 80, the covid risk today would be about the same as going to see An American in Paris in 1952.

    In other words, under current safety standards, movies would never have been allowed as an industry in the first place, as they were far too dangerous. Same for all spectator sports, museums, and formal schooling.

    All I can say is, I’m sure glad our ancestors and younger selves weren’t such big p**sies, like 2020 Americans. If we had been, our lives and our culture would have been pretty sad and pathetic.

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman, Travis
    • Replies: @Anon
  51. @Chrisnonymous

    At my university, students are expected to maintain social distancing at all times (there are monitors with arm bands, like modern-day red guards, watching the cafeterias and lounges, where each student sits silently alone to eat lunch or drink coffee), wear masks at all times, and wipe down their desks with alcohol before every class.

  52. Peterike says:

    “ Am I immune? Who knows? But I am now living life again; church, shopping, indoor gun range, babysitting grandkids, etc.”

    What stopped you from doing that in the first place?

    • Replies: @FPD72
  53. prosa123 says:
    @Another Pseudonymic Handle

    As of about a month ago my employer, which has close to a million employees nationwide, reported eight deaths out of 19,000 cases. That’s a death rate of 0.042%. It’s almost certainly even lower because the actual number of cases must be well over 19,000 as so many cases have no or trivial symptoms.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad
  54. Social distancing in Taipei:

  55. utu says:
    @theMann

    You mean something written by the lecturer Dr. Genevieve Briand at John Hopkins

    but never submitted though seen by some student at John Hopkins who wrote about it in the student paper and then retracted it?

  56. “Granted, Biden medical ethics advisor Ezekiel Emanuel argued in a 2014 article for the Atlantic “Why I Hope to Die at 75:”

    Easy thing to write when one is 57.

  57. utu says:
    @Travis

    The Danish study has no application whatsoever to the function of masks in reducing R0. One could wonder whether it was Big Pharma that sponsored it as it is Big Pharma that has the vested interest in people believing in mask ineffectiveness. Big Pharma wants too tell you to buy drugs and vaccines and does not welcome solutions like universal masking that can stop epidemics.

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/#comment-4295040
    There is a fundamental problem in the study. If you test masks as a protection among unmasked population all studies will show there is no significant difference. This is because masks reduce the probability of infection but not to zero. It just takes more time to get infected. Perhaps 50 contacts instead of 10. So in long enough period of time masks in the Danish experiment regimen do not make much difference.

    Furthermore this study does not look at the initial viral dose. Do mask wearer get less virus and thus had milder cause of disease? It would be good to know because other studies suggest an affirmative answer to this question.

    This Danish study shows a total misunderstanding of what masks do. Or was sponsored by the Big Pharma that was never into masks because they want to sell drugs and vaccines.

    Asians got masks right. They know that masks are not there to protect you but to protect others. The motive is not selfishness driven by immediate fear but by understanding that suppressing of epidemic is a communal concerted effort that require participation by everybody. Selfish people do not get masks.

    Mask function is to reduce R0 and this happens if there is almost universal masking.
    https://www.unz.com/announcement/31000-words-missing-from-the-atlantic-and-the-new-york-times-sunday-magazine/?showcomments#comment-4166108

    • Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome
  58. @theMann

    the number of death certificates is being counted correctly, you know, just like votes

    +1
    How many dead were bookkeeping fictions made to get Trump’s Covid bucks?

    • Replies: @isteve_reader
  59. @prosa123

    As of about a month ago my employer, which has close to a million employees nationwide, reported eight deaths out of 19,000 cases. That’s a death rate of 0.042%. It’s almost certainly even lower because the actual number of cases must be well over 19,000 as so many cases have no or trivial symptoms.

    The key word here is … “employer”.

    You’ve eliminated the most at risk demographic right there. This is a geezer killer. There is no doubt about it. We’ve known–at minimum in broad outline–since the Diamond Princess. Reasonably effective in killing us old folks. A total bust killing young healthy productive people.

    One can argue about the correct policy response. But who’s getting whacked is not some deep mystery.

    • Replies: @prosa123
    , @Anon
  60. prosa123 says:
    @AnotherDad

    Not just that, but because the great majority of the jobs in the company are physically demanding, employees tend to be on the younger side (though not always) and I doubt many have significant medical conditions. Plus the work itself helps keep people reasonably fit.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad
  61. utu says:
    @Peterike

    Chinese in America even in Chinatowns adopt Western customs and mores. While the cleanliness of Chinese restaurant kitchens by the late 20th century American standards leaves much to be desired I do not think it is much different from French restaurant kitchens as described by Orwell in “Down and Out in Paris and London”. (I’ve seen some kitchens in LA Chinatown.)

    I brought up the anti-spitting campaign to illustrate the process of developing new customs because of the health measures enacted by authorities that became a permeant part of culture. In late 19th century Americans were not different from Chinese when it came to spitting. If governments and media were as consistent and persistent about masks as they were about spitting in the 19th/20th century we would not have that many discussions about masks and the prevalence of mask usage would be much higher, possible as high as to actually quash R0 to well below one.

    You and other anti-masking people here if transported to 19th NY probably would be all upset about government curtailing your inalienable right to spit and the government tyranny of fining you or even arresting for spitting. Many of you would write that spitting is essential for health and that the new measures contribute to disease and premature death. Some of you would arrange for public happenings of spitting on the US constitution to demonstrate how both the right to spitting and the US constitutions are inseparable.

  62. @prosa123

    Aren’t you putting your future promotions at risk, reading iSteve?

  63. epebble says:
    @Clifford Brown

    China and also, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam are very aggressive in infection control – quick shutdown of offending congregations, mass/universal testing, universal masking, intrusive contract tracing. Hence, they have much lower infection rates and are able to return to near normalcy compared to Europe and Americas. Australia and New Zealand are also Asian in infection control though culturally Western.

    • Agree: utu
  64. Blubb says:
    @LadyTheo

    No, it would not, because these effects wouldn’t show up in short term trials, which is what we’ve seen so far. They only show up in the longer term, AND HAVE FOR OTHER RNA VACCINES THAT HAVE BEEN THROUGH MORE THOROUGH TESTING. Please inform yourself about SARS and MERS vaccines before posting nonsense.

    People these days really believe science is some sort of infallible magic instead of an incredibly flawed process with even more flawed people conducting it.

    • Replies: @utu
    , @utu
  65. BenKenobi says:
    @Reactionary Utopian

    • BASED: BenKenobi

    Also, I recently discovered the ultimate FU covid (((mask))): a classic black-and-white shemagh worn in the ‘bedoin’ configuration. You think it’s racist? That must be a ‘you’ problem, bruh.

    • Replies: @Reactionary Utopian
  66. utu says:
    @Blubb

    They only show up in the longer term, AND HAVE FOR OTHER RNA VACCINES THAT HAVE BEEN THROUGH MORE THOROUGH TESTING. Please inform yourself about SARS and MERS vaccines before posting nonsense.

    ” OTHER RNA VACCINES” – What other RNA vaccines? Covid-19 mRNA vaccines are the first.

    “SARS and MERS vaccines “ – MERS vaccine test began in April 2020. This is DNA vaccine.

    You are confabulating.

  67. utu says:
    @Blubb

    They only show up in the longer term, AND HAVE FOR OTHER RNA VACCINES THAT HAVE BEEN THROUGH MORE THOROUGH TESTING. Please inform yourself about SARS and MERS vaccines before posting nonsense.

    ” OTHER RNA VACCINES” – What other RNA vaccines? Covid-19 mRNA vaccines are the first.

    “SARS and MERS vaccines “ – MERS vaccine test began in April 2020. This is DNA vaccine.

    You are confabulating.

    • Replies: @Inquiring Mind
  68. @Hippopotamusdrome

    I agree with your ironical sentiment (and @the Mann’s) here. But one reason to believe the total death count is somewhat accurate is that it is no longer presented to the public. Now it is a crisis of “cases.”

  69. FPD72 says:
    @Peterike

    “ Am I immune? Who knows? But I am now living life again; church, shopping, indoor gun range, babysitting grandkids, etc.”

    What stopped you from doing that in the first place?

    Church: only met on line for several months. By the time they opened up we had quit because they had gone full Critical Race Theory. We now split between watching services at our church in our previous home town or attending with our son, which is not a permanent solution because of differences in doctrinal matters of secondary importance.

    Gun range: indoor and closed for several months. Returned for proficiency test for License to Carry.

    Shopping: Costco and local grocery chain had home delivery and curb pickup. Amazon and LL Bean.

    At my age, COVID has about a 4% CFR. Why risk it when the risk/reward ratio didn’t seem to justify it? That was the case with all of the activities above. I’m somewhat risk averse by nature and didn’t mind restricting my activities for ten months or so. Mrs. FPD and I had made the decision that if a vaccine weren’t approved by March of 2021 that we were going to leave house arrest and take our chances; we weren’t willing to live out our remaining years with these restrictions and thought it would be better to catch COVID at 71 than 75. Our county has experienced forty COVID deaths per 100,000 thus far but is experiencing a severe spike in hospitalizations right now and has entered Stage 4.

    Babysitting grandkids: from May on we started seeing them on a weekly basis, when our son would bring them over and we would visit and eat outside. In September they returned to school and exposure. We continued to see them outdoors but not indoors with lots of hugs and roughhousing (babysitting) until we had the vaccine. Again, an abundance of caution. Since the summer it has been evident that there is little child-to-adult transmission but we weren’t going indoors at our sons’ homes because they were out and about and exposed at work.

    Several of the commentators have thought I was taking a greater chance participating in the trial. Were I younger that would be the case. But at age 70, with the first two phases of the trial having been completed with no observed problems, I thought that COVID posed a greater threat than the vaccine.

    There is no safety. Every human activity has risk. We can try to mitigate risk but in my mind it always comes down to the risk/reward ratio. Some risks are worth taking while others are not. Personal values and risk tolerance will always affect our decisions. My opinion is that after the 15 days to bend the curve that everything should have been opened up and remained open, while those who are more susceptible to the virus remained sheltered in place. For most age groups, Covid is about as dangerous as a bad year of seasonal flu, so for them the relative risk of contracting Covid while engaged in the normal pursuits of life is acceptable.

    • Replies: @utu
  70. Anon[292] • Disclaimer says:
    @AnotherDad

    I’d argue that it’s an old geez killer only because of good medicine/access to hospitals. I know several 50-55 yr old men, in good health, who have had to go to the hospital. Another example, a 53 year old back from skiing got in March, was perfectly fine at home, then got pericarditis a few weeks later. He got meningitis very recently, though of course one can’t say it’s related. Still, I don’t know anyone else that’s got meningitis so I was struck by the fact.

    I agree with masking, not with endless lockdowns and must say I’m disappointed that we hacen’t put more emphasis on standardized home treatments. Oh well, vaccine rollout makes for exciting mass entertainment.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad
  71. AndrewR says:
    @Charon

    While Rahm’s brother is clearly a fool (as Steve said, old people can have value beyond contributing major novel ideas to humanity (which Uncle Zeke surely hasn’t done). If he’s advocating killing off “useless eaters” then I have a long list of potential candidates before I would choose my dad. Zeke wouldn’t like my list.

  72. AndrewR says:
    @Anon7

    Healthcare workers, the elderly and the severely obese/immuno-compromised should get it but no one else really needs to.

  73. Anonymous[915] • Disclaimer says:

    Conversely, members of the placebo arm would tend to have a clue from their lack of vaccine side effect symptoms that they maybe got the placebo.

    That’s not true in all of the trials. In at least the UK trial of the Astrazeneca vaccine the placebo was also a vaccine, but for something else.

  74. utu says:
    @FPD72

    My opinion is that after the 15 days to bend the curve that everything should have been opened up and remained open, while those who are more susceptible to the virus remained sheltered in place.

    You can’t say T=15 days. The value of T is not fixed. It will depend on the infection rate at the time of lockdown. The objective of the strict lockdown is to reduce number of active cases to the level that is manageable. Lockdown is the fastest and surest way to reduce the infection rate. The manageable level is the level at which other measures like (1) contact tracing + isolation quarantine can be carried out to suppress all local flare ups and at which (2) universal masking is effective. The manageable level will depends on country’s ability to carry out the (1) and (2) countermeasures. Countries like Taiwan, Japan or Finland apparently can do (1) effectively. Countries like the US, Spain or Poland can’t.

    There were countries (e.g Czechia and Poland) that after a very successful suppression of the first wave announced a victory and relaxed most restrictions completely without a proper follow up with contact tracing. They squandered the lockdown. In the Spring Czechia was the most positive about masking as the movement for universal masking was grass root based and preceded government recommendations but in the Summer they stopped wearing masks thing the epidemiology was over. For this hubris of premature celebration now they are paying a heavy price. After the first wave Poland and Czechia had one of the lowest deaths per capita rates in Europe while now Czechia has already higher death per capita than Sweden. On the other hand Finland did not squander its lockdown and continues to do very well. Asian countries like Taiwan and Japan have experience and know how how to do the effective contact tracing are doing very well and they have a population that accepts and understands the concepts of universal masking with negligibly few recalcitrant defectors like people with libertarians habits of mind in America and Europe.

    The reduction of R0 by the universal masking works faster when the infection rate is smaller because the number of contacts with infectious persons is proportion to the infection rate.

  75. @BenKenobi

    Also, I recently discovered the ultimate FU covid (((mask))): a classic black-and-white shemagh worn in the ‘bedoin’ configuration.

    That is good, but I’m not sure it’s the ultimate. For fun, I’ve occasionally worn a ball cap and a mosquito hood overtop. (You need the bill of the ball cap to keep the mesh hood away from your face, where it’s mildly annoying.) I have several of these hoods, because you often want one during the first week or so of deer season (archery), when skeeters and biting flies still persist in the woods of northeast Indiana. I’ve gotten some good-natured laughs in stores when doing the mesh hood thing.

    With the shemagh, I assume you’re crying out the occasional “Allah is great!” with the accompanying ululation?

    • LOL: BenKenobi
  76. @Anonymous

    The second injection causes 101.3 fever for four days, chills and joint aches for two days?

    Citation Needed. I don’t have the Pfizer/BioNTech figures at my fingertips, but what I remember is that Moderna has a bit worse side effect profile but that only 10% of the recipients of its vaccine have reactions that would include this severity. And if your roll of the dice is in that fraction, to quote someone in their trial, “Man up.” Others in that article reported their obnoxious side effects only lasted a day after the second booster dose.

  77. @Blubb

    In previous attempts at [RNA] vaccines, they have been shown to cause severe autoimmune diseases and make you more likely to develop a worse case of the virus than what you’d had if you hadn’t taken the vaccine.

    That’s why they never received any approval, anywhere.

    Citation Needed, especially to discern if they’re of the current lipid blob protected variety. Because I haven’t come across any data to back up that claim, and for your second point, note for example that Moderna never got beyond Phase 1 vaccine trials, which don’t have to be reported to the government.

    Hence why all the companies want to be indemnified against any side effects and complaints.

    That’s the SOP for all vaccines in the US due to our out of control legal system, the inherent difficulties of getting a jury of laymen to parse out causality, and the simple fact that when you give a vaccine to tens of millions of people, the vagaries of the immune system will absolutely result in some bad ends. Also due to the government being cheap, along with just about everyone else. You want to subject vaccine companies to the normal legal system? Prepare to pay say ten times as much You’ll also find fewer entities being willing to administer them since those will also get swept up on lawsuit madness.

    Taking a step back, the theory behind mRNA vaccines is solid, and for COVID-19 they should be safer than any live virus vaccine of any type, because they only hijack cells to provide one protein, the infamous spike one. Note the old fashioned live virus vaccines are attenuated, they can reproduce unlike modern “replication incompetent” adenovirus vector ones, the leading examples of those for COVID-19 are AZ/Oxford, Sputnik V, and Janssen (Johnson & Johnson)/BIDMC.

    Of course theory gets you only so far, which is why these vaccines are being tested on thousands of people, the FDA demanding two months of safety data past the second dose, based on the observation per Saint Fauci but also my memory that almost all bad side effects show up in 45 days. And that only gets you an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA), more data will be required for approval for the general population.

    Also, we absolutely have no clue of long term effects of this gene changing vaccines. It literally modifies your cells. Like cancer.

    Not like cancer, that’s silly as you would know if you knew any molecular genetics. Being mRNA vaccines they can’t modify the DNA of the cells they hijack without a mechanism that reverses the fundamental paradigm of molecular genetics, DNA -> mRNA -> proteins. For example, slipping reverse transcriptase into the vaccine, at which point they’d be no worse than any vaccine with a DNA virus vector. Otherwise see my previous comments, they’re no different than earlier live virus vaccines of which there’s a bunch, all hijack some of your cells to get the immune system to provide the best possible response, which includes killing those cells.

  78. @theMann

    Not to mention the “illness” is a one and done, the long term vaccine side effects are unknown, and will be unknowable, and irreversible.

    Says the man who’s never heard of “Long COVID.” Morbidity, including serious and/or permanent, is well established for the illness you don’t really believe in based on your use of scare quotes. These mRNA vaccines simulate a tiny fraction of the real illness, no one who knows molecular biology has come up with a theory they’ll be worse than the real illness, unless it’s based on their protective lipids. For which the reactions will almost certainly be very short term, seeing as how our bodies have so much machinery to deal with lipids, AKA fats. And see the toxicologist’s maxim “The dose makes the poison.”

  79. TTSSYF says:
    @Reactionary Utopian

    I make no claim on younger people to increase infinitesimally my own life expectancy. I hereby plead: for God’s sake, stop the virus bullshit. Open everything that remains, full capacity, full speed, no stupid East Asian panic masks required. (Diaper your own face voluntarily if you so choose.) Give the younger people a chance at living their lives. Please.

    Totally agree, with one exception. In my experience, it’s the younger ones who are more concerned about the virus and fully on-board with the face diapers.

    • Replies: @prosa123
  80. @Anon

    There were many studies of the decay of antibodies after having the actual Covid disease itself, but I have not seen any regarding the decay of vaccine-produced antibodies. Let’s see, the vaccines were given when, July, something like that? So, by now, you would think they have tested for the persistence of the vaccine antibodies. Is this a secret?

    Nope. Let’s start with what’s got to be a fundamental fact about the host of antibodies our adaptive immune system produces to terminate with extreme prejudice an infection that isn’t stopped by our innate immune system. If they stayed around in your body forever, it wouldn’t be that many years after being born that you wouldn’t have room in your blood plasma for red blood cells.

    So a competent adaptive immune system response includes memory cells that prime the body to quickly make a new batch of antibodies if it’s challenged again with the same antigen. This system can be so good it’s been fairly recently tested on survivors of the 1918-9 Spanish Flu. And we’ve observed that COVID-19 also produces such a memory cell result.

    See also all the virus vaccines for which you take 2 or maybe a few more inoculations and you’re done for the rest of your life. The Tdap boosters we all should be taking every 5-10 years are against the protein that causes lockjaw that’s produced by a bacteria, and the bacteria that produce diphtheria and pertussis (whooping cough). (And seriously, get one every 10 years, or if you have a bad wound, if more than 5 years after your last one, lockjaw is an ugly way to die.)

    So based on serological data from both survivors of the disease and people who’ve gotten vaccines, and the paucity of real reinfections (you expect a few since not everyone has a fully working immune system), we expect these vaccines as well as the wild type virus infection will result in life long immunity, but by definition only time will prove that.

  81. TTSSYF says:
    @theMann

    We don’t know that it’s one and done. Didn’t Boris Johnson recently quarantine himself after being re-exposed, even though he previously was hospitalized with, presumably, a severe case of COVID? Having the flu is not one and done, and the annual flu shot is just a best guess, with an effectiveness rate of only about 65%.

    But I agree that the long-term vaccine side effects are not known and, by definition, won’t be known for many years. I’d rather take my chances with the therapeutics.

    Oh, and another thing — Zeke Emanuel is despicable.

  82. @utu

    The death rate from tuberculosis plummeted between 1900 and 1950 when the first effective antibiotic for tuberculosis, which was streptomycin, became available.

    The main reason for the reduction in the death rate seems to have been legislation bringing in a number of social distancing laws and other hygiene measures.

    • Thanks: utu
  83. TTSSYF says:
    @Wilbur Hassenfus

    He’s no different than any number of his ilk. They’ll say or do anything for notoriety and a buck. It’s why they’re able to run roughshod over the goyim. Most of us can’t pass the red-face test.

    • Agree: utu
  84. Steve, do you actually know any old people? Most old people have always liked to spend money on their grandkids. Many elderly today don’t have any. A vaccine won’t be helping that situation to my knowledge. Although a vaccine might help the old ladies get back to hair salon, and the old gents to their beloved barbers. It won’t save the elderly fan favorite of all you can eat buffet restaurants. The buffet is dead forever.

  85. @Hypnotoad666

    Vaccines are the most obvious way to get back to the good old days.

    How about placebos for everyone. According to the studies, they have the same effect on health outcomes as the vaccines.

    I know you’ve been following these iSteve discussions so your false statement cannot be a product of ignorance. Moderna’s placebo arm had 11 “severe” cases of COVID-19, none in the vaccine arm. If you want to quibble about severe, first read the definition from their test protocol, here, page 11. I had to look up PaO2/FIO2, per one source the 200-300 range has a 27% raw all causes of ARDS mortality rate.

    If you want to quibble about the small number, 11 out of 90 cases in the placebo arm as of the 16th, sure, but that can only be remedied by more time for participants in both arms of the study to get COVID-19. Anyone want to bet on whether more have gotten COVID-19 in the subsequent 16 days? It’s out of control, new purple level beyond red in my region of the country for 150 miles in all directions. Although OK in some places like in one of my friend’s almost suburban Maryland county as of a week or so ago.

    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666
  86. @utu

    This is because masks reduce the probability of infection but not to zero. It just takes more time to get infected.

    Ie, they don’t work.

  87. Mike Tre says:

    I have to hand it to you Steve, you will go to any length to justify the greatest seizure of individual liberties ever perpetrated on the American people.

    “As I’ve been pointing out for some time, the technical term “comorbidity” confuses people, many of whom assume that it means something like “another cause of death,” when it actually means “the simultaneous presence of two or more diseases or medical conditions in a patient.” Older Americans tend to have several comorbidities, such as high blood pressure, which can be survived for a long time.

    So, a lot of people in some danger from COVID due to age and comorbidities are not exactly on death’s door sans COVID.”

    Corona deaths have a comorbidity rate of 90% Steve. You can pretend that us rubes’ “confusion” over the definition changes the fact that people of normal health are at no more risk of death from “thuh vIhrus” than they are from any respiratory pathogen and in most cases less so, but it doesn’t change reality.

    “Your grandchildren, for example, might wish to know you better before they lose you.”

    Seriously Steve, this deserves a four letter word followed by the word “you.” My 17 year is missing out on the entire right of passage that is the senior year experience. My 13 year old is missing out on her lesser but still important 8th grade right of passage. Most of their friends’ parents have finally succumbed to the Korona Krazy Koo-laid.

    Ask YOUR grand kids Sailer, I’m sure they’ll lie and say “Of course pop-pop, we much rather hang out with our cool grandparents in our masks than enjoy all the normal childhood experiences that have been taken away from us for no reason!” But as long as you feel good about it Steve, who cares, right?

    You’ll be long gone before the full negative effects of locking our young people away from each other fully manifest, but as long as the geriatrics can delay the inevitable for a few more months, it’s all worth it.

    Yet another sign of a dying nation: Prioritizing the health of the elderly over the health of the young.

  88. Anon[314] • Disclaimer says:
    @Hypnotoad666

    Thanks. I’m not endorsing the numbers you present since I haven’t checked them, but this is the right way to be thinking about the issue.

    We have no standards that define the amount of risk that a person may assume for themselves, or that they may impose on others. This is a huge problem that goes far beyond COVID.

    Because we do impose risks on others all the time. Whenever you drive 75 MPH on the highway rather than 65 MPH, you’re increasing that odds that you’ll injure another driver in an accident. Whenever you go skiing, you’re taking the risk that you’ll hit another skier and injure them. If you put a pool in your yard, you’re taking the risk that a neighborhood kid will wander in and drown. Now, you could say that the risks in these cases are small enough to be acceptable, but…based on what? If I criticized you for putting others at risk in this way, what standard could you point to that would exonerate you?

    Because there’s no standard, people find it hard to push back when the more risk-averse criticize them for some activity. And so we get these creeping restrictions that make our society increasingly sclerotic. This is a major reason why “we just can’t do big things anymore” as a society. Many of what the late David Graeber called “bullshit jobs” are in fact jobs that marginally reduce the risk of some already unlikely problem.

    A recently-published paper argues that the number of births that car seat laws prevent is much larger than the number of children they save. Whether or not this particular claim is true, there’s no doubt that this kind of thing is happening constantly now. Arguably we’re seeing it with COVID.

    • Agree: Redman
    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666
  89. @utu

    Clearly you have never been to a college campus and had to watch your step on the sidewalks.

    Oral tobacco is a “thing” among young people.

  90. @utu

    “Confabulating”?

    Is that the word describing being rude on the Internet by using all caps and by saying something like “Please inform yourself”?

    I always wondered what word described that.

  91. Am I immune? Who knows? But I am now living life again; church, shopping, indoor gun range, babysitting grandkids, etc.

    You can and should do all that without getting the vaccine.

  92. Thoughts says:
    @Anonymous

    I read that in Steve’s post and nearly fell over

    101 for 4 days?

    Couldn’t that cause birth defects in pregnant women?

    I had a 103 fever for 4 hours once and was totally delusional…I was 12.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    , @HA
    , @ken
  93. Thoughts says:
    @Chrisnonymous

    Covid: A Bunch of old people afraid of dying, so they torture young people

    • Replies: @Muggles
  94. DRA says:
    @Reactionary Utopian

    … except in gun-to-the-head situations, like you have to go to the dentist…

    My mind boggles at getting my teeth cleaned with a mask on…

  95. Thoughts says:

    Steve constantly says ‘We need to make people feel safe…so vaccine it is’

    I don’t understand why the rational people have to be held captive by the irrational people.

    That’s what Covid is…

    It’s the same thing with non-whites and (()) holding whites captive with anti-semitism and racism charges.

    Covid is the same ….You want me to die!!…Crazy irrational people holding everyone else hostage

    • Agree: Je Suis Omar Mateen
  96. Redman says:
    @Steve Sailer

    Here in NYC movie theaters have been dying for about 20 years. Many have closed and those still open are packed with NAMs. I’d love to see the percent of NYC movie tickets bought by whites.

    In 2020, movie theater receipts cannot be used as a measure of willingness to “live life.”

  97. Jack D says:
    @Clifford Brown

    Still the median age of death is the 78 years, basically equal to average American life expectancy.

    People keep dragging this out as if it means something. Just because you are the life expectancy age or older doesn’t mean that you are going to die next week anyway. 78 is your life expectancy AT BIRTH. This includes all the people who will die as infants, who will be killed in motorcycle or work accidents, etc. If you make it to the life expectancy age you have cleared many of those hurdles. The average 78 year old has around 9 years left so if a 78 year old in average health dies of Covid then it has cost him (or her) 9 years of life on average.

    Now the people who are dying of Covid are probably of below average health but the average 78 year old probably has a number of conditions and yet modern medicine keeps him alive for another 9 years absent a pandemic. It’s not unreasonable to assume that Covid is costing them maybe 4 or 5 years of life on average.

    • Replies: @HA
    , @AnotherDad
  98. Jack D says:
    @Anonymous

    Was Pfizer supposed to do this for free? How much of the $1.95 billion represents profit and how much represents their actual cost to develop and produce the vaccine that the government has ordered?

    • Agree: Muggles
  99. Jack D says:
    @Travis

    Cloth masks don’t protect you much but they protect people FROM you. If you want (some, not a perfect) degree of protection you should be wearing a well fitted N95 when you go out in public. Part of the problem is that even now, 8+ months into the pandemic, you still can’t go into Home Depot and buy a box of N95s. If you try hard you can get them (real actual 3M NIOSH approved masks, not dubious Chinese KN95s) but at maybe 4x the pre-pandemic price.

  100. Redman says:
    @Steve Sailer

    The best “marketing” would have been just using a placebo for the vaccine 6 months ago. Call it safe and effective, but just give everyone a shot of sugar water. That’s what you do with a hysterical person, and even more so with a hysterical population: lie and give them a sugar pill. Declare the virus over.

    From the POV of a doctor, do no harm. From the POV of a marketer, the noble lie is often effective and necessary to overcome natural skepticism.

  101. More real world data on the fact that “the novel coronavirus” has no material effect at all on deaths of the elderly. There has been no discontinuity downward in total Social Security payments in 2020 and no discontinuity upward in Social Security lump sum death benefits.

    The virus hysteria is just that — hysteria.

    https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=240767

    Rational people under 70 in generally good health will not take a newly-developed vaccine for a disease that is 99% survivable.

    • Replies: @Jack D
  102. HA says:
    @Jack D

    “The average 78 year old has around 9 years left…”

    According to the longevity tables of the SSA, which are maintained so as to calculate how much they’re expected to fork over in SS payments:

    A 78 year old US male (let’s say he’s eating his birthday cake today) can expect to live an additional 9.8 years.

    A 78 year old US female can expect to live for another 11.4 years.

    There are other easily available calculators that allow anyone to input other factors and obtain a more relevant number.

  103. anon[327] • Disclaimer says:

    The purpose of life is to live not contribute some gizmo.

    Ezek Emmanuel should go now or last month.

  104. @Thoughts

    I had a 106 F fever once, and this plastic frog in my room started moving around a bit. That’s about as bad as it got.

    I got better. (Ron Unz might not think so.)

  105. Redman says:
    @Steve Sailer

    This is a more helpful CDC graph which tracks excess deaths (all causes) starting in February presumably when we think Covid started to have an impact. It does not show that excess deaths are increasing recently.

    The overall excess death rate is about 12% from February to mid-November. Is this high? Hard to tell because it’s difficult to find similar data for previous years, say, 1968 and the Hong Kong Flu.

    Nobody is arguing that Covid hasn’t caused many deaths, but I don’t think that a one-year increase of 12% (or less if the month of January was included) can by itself explain the national hysteria we’ve seen in 2020. And what portion of that 12% was caused by the shut down, which logic dictates would have resulted from its attendant mental effects alone? The CDC doesn’t share any data on that.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    , @AnotherDad
  106. HA says:
    @Thoughts

    “101 for 4 days? Couldn’t that cause birth defects in pregnant women?”

    Have you heard what actual COVID can do? I mean, if you’re the kind of woman such that the virus’s bits and pieces in a vaccine injection are going to cause birth defects in your child, you had better make sure you stay away from anyone who could infect you with the real thing.

    What is with this weird homeopathy “logic” that keeps popping up here? Actual virus? — oh yeah, no problem, gimme some, I’ll be totally asymptomatic to that, for sure. But the dismembered and diluted and basically deactivated virus parts? Oh no, get that away from me — we’re all gonna die! I guess that means the extra, extra diluted injection would be even worse?

    I have little doubt that we’ll survive COVID, one way or another. But as for surviving this plague of anti-vaxxers and corona-truthers, that kind of comorbidity is starting to seem far more problematic.

    • Replies: @Thoughts
    , @Jack D
    , @AnotherDad
    , @utu
  107. lavoisier says: • Website

    On the other hand, not all that many of us contribute a major novel idea to human thought before age 75 either (a vast group to which history may someday adjudge Ezekiel Emanuel to have belonged, if it remembers him at all), but that doesn’t mean our lives aren’t worth living.

    This is very true and worth remembering for those delusional enough to think of themselves as being geniuses without any legitimate reason to think this way.

    Creativity is rare enough; creative genius is even more rare.

    When my nephew, a national merit semifinalist, asked me if he was a genius I asked him what he had accomplished to make him think of himself this way.

    Being a national merit finalist in high school or qualifying for Mensa does not make one a “genius.”

    Only legitimate creative accomplishment can do this.

  108. HA says:
    @Mike Tre

    “the greatest seizure of individual liberties ever perpetrated on the American people.”

    Seriously? With everything the IRS and the NSA have done to us over the decades, or what happened as the result of military conscription, or else what happened at Ruby Ridge and all the other stuff that survivalist loons darkly mutter about — for that matter, consider what happened to Typhoid Mary or the people involved in the Tuskegee Syphyilis Tests or MKUltra. Despite that very long list, you want to claim that the COVID “lockdowns” that shut down your gym and pickup bar are the real outrage and that you’re the real victim.

    The next time someone accuses me of giving in to hysteria, I’m going to refer them to posts like yours. I thought it was those gays screaming about how their bath houses were shut down during the AIDS crisis who were the real drama queens, but no, they’re going to have to collectively take off that rhinestone and zirconium-encrusted tiara and rest it on your beady little head.

    • Agree: Alexander Turok
    • Replies: @Mike Tre
  109. Jack D says:
    @Wade Hampton

    The flu is more survivable than Covid but millions of people get flu shots every year. Some of the thing we get vaccines for, like chicken pox, are rarely fatal but we get the shots anyway. The threshold for taking a vaccine does not have to be certain death.

    Something like 15% or 20% of the younger people who get Covid are NOT back to their normal activities after two weeks. Even if you are not likely to die from Covid wouldn’t you be glad to skip possibly months of being out of sorts and unable to work? I personally know of younger people who have had lingering effects from Covid such as their sense of taste and smell not coming back, loss of stamina, etc. . This certainly takes away from your enjoyment of life but if you are a chef it prevents you from working.

  110. Thoughts says:
    @HA

    There’s several logic problems with your thinking.

    Logic Problem 1:

    Some years you get the flu, some years you don’t

    Logic Problem 2:

    A person (like me) may already have immunity due to some other disease, like H1N1, or even that weird stomach acid vomiting thing-but-not-Covid that made me immune to my spouse getting Strep a few weeks later

    Logic Problem 3:

    We don’t do vaccine / versus wild tests on Twins..although I would like to see that.

    A vaccine has a lot more in it then just the Wild Virus, it has components, and sometimes even uses other flu viruses as backbones in the delivery system (Adenovirus?)

    You are getting a lot of things in a vaccine, where as a Wild Virus is Just a Wild Virus…and a Wild Virus’ goal is NOT to kill you…but to keep you up and around to spread it for as long as possible (HIV)

    Logic Problem 3/4:

    Referring to above….most people who get the Flu Vaccine get laid up with the flu for a few days…they don’t die…but….they still Get it

    It’s a guarantee ‘Getting It’

    Conclusion:

    If it’s between a vaccine that causes 101 fever for 4 days (or even a bad migraine or ‘hangover’ as described for one day), versus Covid which as far as my circle of Genetic Relatives is concerned has caused nothing

    Easy Choice

    No one is going to take a vaccine which will ‘Give them’ the disease, when no one around them is suffering from the disease

    • Replies: @HA
    , @AnotherDad
  111. prosa123 says:
    @TTSSYF

    In my experience, it’s the younger ones who are more concerned about the virus and fully on-board with the face diapers.

    Case in point: less than 30 minutes ago I was at the drive-up of a Starbucks that’s located next to a walk-in medical clinic. There had to be a good 75 people waiting for virus tests in a line that wrapped completely around the building (signs informed people who were there for other reasons to go right in). Almost all of them looked to be younger than age 40 with most under 30.

  112. @Jack D

    People keep dragging this out as if it means something. Just because you are the life expectancy age or older doesn’t mean that you are going to die next week anyway.

    Jack it not only means “something”, it means (almost) *everything*.

    Sure it doesn’t mean your kindergarten cartoon straw man–they were going to die (now, next month, this year) anyway.

    But it does mean it’s fundamentally a geezer killer. Killing the same people as other old age causes of death … just killing them a bit earlier than otherwise.

    This is huge. It’s the most important thing about this pandemic. Contrast with say the Spanish Flu. What was the median age? 35? The thing was cutting swathes through young healthy men in the Army. Or contrast–god forbid–with smallpox.

    ~~

    Your numbers–quite reasonable.

    Only Xi virus death i know personally, recently lost a much beloved family member–a very kind and decent man–to the virus. But he was in bad shape when i went to his 90th birthday celebration a few years ago–though could vaguely understand who i was–and had moved last year to a unit where he could get full dementia support. Years lost 1? 2? maybe 3 at a stretch? QALYs lost? Zero. His wife also 90+ had and kicked the bug. The biggest downside, family couldn’t get together to properly mourn and honor this good man. We’ll do it next summer.

    Even with no reaction–no lockdown b.s., no vaccine–all the Xi virus would have done is temporarily whacked away a few years of gains in life expectancy. (Once it was circulating most people would have experienced it sometime earlier in life and would have some immunity until their immune system itself was cratering with advanced old age.)

    I want to do another 30 myself–all the granddad stuff. The last thing i want is to get knocked out by yet another piece of Chinese crap. But if i died from this … tragedy for my family, but irrelevant for America. (Scratch some Social Security liability!) Death comes for us all in the end. If there is eternal life, it’s the province of the Big Man, and not our life here on Earth.

    The 80 mean age of death, is really the most important info about the Xi virus. It means “not a threat to civilization”.

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman, Redman
  113. Jack D says:
    @HA

    But as for surviving this plague of anti-vaxxers and corona-truthers, that kind of comorbidity is starting to seem far more problematic.

    Anti-vaxxers and corona-truthers are a symptom of a deeply rooted distrust of elites and of science in our society. There was a time when both were respected in society but they have squandered that respect with repeated lies and half-truths and disinformation and this is the result. Yes, anti-vaxxers and corona-truthers are idiots but I can see why they are suspicious of authority. The authorities have earned their distrust.

    I don’t know how this can be fixed as matters currently stand when the average person reads stuff in the newspaper – for example endless praise for the wonderful benefits of diversity and then they go out into the streets of their neighborhood and they see “diverse” persons doing undocumented shopping and other anti-social behaviors and at some point the average person realizes that they cannot trust what is being fed to them by the media and politicians. If they are lying to them wrt the things that they can see with their own eyes, what else are they lying to them about?

    • Replies: @HA
  114. Anon[316] • Disclaimer says:
    @Mike Tre

    The apparent indifference towards young people during this pandemic has been really striking.

    It’s uncontroversial that the virus is far less dangerous to young people, which makes the restrictions much less valuable to them. But arguably the restrictions fall much more heavily on them too, because they’re in a more socially formative period of their lives, and because the types of jobs they tend to do (retail, hospitality, etc.) have been hit harder. The people most at risk are retired, so the restrictions have very little economic impact on them.

    Combine these two elements- much lower virus risk and much higher cost of restrictions- and you find that the restrictions are hugely worse for young people than for old people under any cost/benefit analysis. Put another way, young people are making a massive sacrifice on behalf of old people.

    We can debate whether it’s right for them to make this sacrifice. But what’s remarkable to me is that there’s almost no public acknowledgement of it or gratitude for it. It’s just taken for granted.

    • Thanks: Mike Tre
  115. @Anon

    Because there’s no standard, people find it hard to push back when the more risk-averse criticize them for some activity. And so we get these creeping restrictions that make our society increasingly sclerotic.

    Exactly.

    I find it absolutely infuriating that the panic mongers: (a) refuse to objectively quantify the risk of anything (like movies) before they decide to shut it down; (b) refuse to objectively quantify the benefit of anything (like masks or social distancing) before they make it mandatory; and (c) also refuse to establish any objective standard for deciding what level of risk/benefit would be sufficient to justify their action. Until you do these things, you are just flailing hysterically.

    Before crying “fire” in a crowded theater (to keep going with the movie metaphor), it is the government that must have the burden of proving with specific evidence and logic that there is, in fact, a sufficiently “existential” emergency to justify its dictatorial actions.

    But our lying lockstep media have solved this “problem” by simply switching the burden of proof. That is, to uphold your constitutional rights you must prove the negative proposition that there is no invisible “emergency.” But if anyone succeed in poking holes in the government’s very flimsy case (like the California ER doctors, or the Great Barrington Declaration signatories), they are immediately de-platformed, blackballed, censored, and shadow-banned. Other than that, it’s a totally level playing field.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  116. HA says:
    @Jack D

    “Yes, anti-vaxxers and corona-truthers are idiots but I can see why they are suspicious of authority. The authorities have earned their distrust.”

    It’s not their distrust of authority that’s the problem. I can match their distrust and then some. It’s their conviction that their abysmally bad projections constitute a preferable alternative. In general, it’s their failure to admit any reality beyond their wild conspiracy theories that is the probem. COVID doesn’t care who’s in the White House, it doesn’t care how scared you are of needles and of Bill Gates. You might have a clue as to what it’s going to do if you go through the slog of learning about epidemiology and complicated differential equations and whatnot, but they can’t be bothered with that, and they sneer at people who have actually put in the effort as being the real dupes.

    Then again, on a larger scale, maybe there’s hope for us yet, given that the modern day anti-vaxxers, as worrisome as they are, are pale and wimpy in comparison with their forebears. Now those were people who knew how to push back whenever some despotic Tsar or limey King dared to so much as attempt to deprive their wives and children of their God-appointed date-with-cholera-destiny.

  117. Anonymous[104] • Disclaimer says:
    @Mike Tre

    I’ll never forget the year a bunch of “conservatives” had a snowflake meltdown because the gubbament was no longer indoctrinating their kids for free. Seriously, unless you’re one of the many moron Americans who thinks that it’s gubbament’s job to raise your kid, your kid is learning more of the useful stuff with none of the indoctrination.

    • Replies: @Smile Smitler
  118. Anonymous[104] • Disclaimer says:
    @Hypnotoad666

    “justify its dictatorial actions”

    It’s not dictatorial, our leaders are elected democratically. On some level it’s a good thing many cuckservatives don’t actually care whether Republican leaders build the wall or not, or whether they impose lockdowns or not, and continue to vote for them regardless.

    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666
  119. @Jack D

    Jack, it’s almost pointless arguing the vaccine thing.

    There are a bunch of guys here–i think they are all guys–whom i often agree with on the important issue of the day, who apparently just so pissed off about all the abject nonsense–abject totalitarian nonsense–that’s been done in the name of Covid, that careful plus/minus reasoning is just out the window.

    We got the basic picture of this thing with the Diamond Princess:
    — geezer killer;
    — basically doesn’t kill healthy young people outside docs/nurses getting mega dose and walloped by cytokine storm
    — low death rate (probably 0.2-0.5% for US age profile population)
    — lots of asymptomatics

    Reducing the spread by
    — sick people stay home!
    — quarantining and/or extra care for old/vulnerable people
    — work from home if you can
    — masking up in confined spaces–transit, planes, stores
    — sit a bit further apart when socializing
    all perfectly reasonable.

    Lockdowns, “killer beaches”, “killer golf”, and political mask theater … a bunch of useless b.s.

    Then you push hard to get a vaccine out.

    (Being a retired gentleman of leisure whose main entertainment is enjoying AnotherMom or iSteve, I’m one of the least affected people on the planet. But i’ll be happy to get my jab and be done with this POS. Thanks a bunch, Chairman Xi!)

    • Agree: FPD72, Captain Tripps
  120. @HA

    I have little doubt that we’ll survive COVID, one way or another. But as for surviving this plague of anti-vaxxers and corona-truthers, that kind of comorbidity is starting to seem far more problematic.

    Nonsense. I disagree with this anti-vax nonsense, but it–and Corona itself–are basically irrelevant.

    Our plague is minoritarianism: “racism!”, “diversity is our greatest strength”, “nation of immigrants”, “xenophobia!”, “gender is socially constructed”, “structural racism” …

    That’s what’s killing us. The Xi virus–and all the sound and fury surrounding it–is a comparative trifle.

    • Replies: @HA
  121. @Jack D

    Some of the thing we get vaccines for, like chicken pox, are rarely fatal but we get the shots anyway.

    Bad example, because you really, really don’t want to let that particular herpes virus get into your system, your nervous system cells specifically, shingles is no fun at all. I got it in my early 40s and fought it off in 3 painful weeks, only time in my adult life I’ve filled a prescription for an opiate. It can be much worse, and if you’re 50 or older you’re advised to get the new recombinant vaccine against it (the old, for those 60 or older is a Nx dose of the live virus that’s used for the childhood inoculation and is less effective).

  122. @That Would Be Telling

    If you want to quibble about severe, first read the definition from their test protocol, here, page 11.

    If you want to quibble about the small number, 11 [“severe” cases] out of 90 [overall covid] cases in the placebo arm as of the 16th, sure, but that can only be remedied by more time for participants in both arms of the study to get COVID-19.

    I do want to quibble.

    The protocol states that “To be considered a severe COVID-19” case, the patient must merely test positive for covid itself, “plus any of the following: . . . . ” It then lists a bunch of generalized bad stuff that can happen to people, like having a high heart rate, trouble breathing, “evidence of shock,” renal, hepatic, or neurological dysfunction. In fact, just getting admitted to an ICU for any reason automatically elevates your covid case to “severe.”

    You will also notice, however, that nothing in the study’s definition of “severe covid-19,” requires that any of these qualifying symptoms are actually caused by the covid virus. It’s purely associational.

    By definition, however, anything that reduces the number of covid infections by 95% will automatically reduce the number of times that a covid infection is associated with another randomly occurring variable. For example, the number of left-handed people with covid will be 20x greater in the placebo group than in the vaccine group. That doesn’t mean the vaccine is effective protection against “left-handedness.”

    The 11-0 ratio of “covid + severe health symptoms” in a group which has 20-1 more covid to begin with, is thus entirely predictable and consistent with the hypothesis that covid itself is harmless.

    If you wanted to compare apples-to-apples you would have to compare the incidence of the listed “severe” symptoms in the placebo and vaccine groups. (And this should be done by someone ignorant of who is in which group). Since we know that there are 95% fewer covid cases in the vaccine group you could then determine exactly what is the causal relationship between catching covid and developing generalized “severe” symptoms.

    This will not yield the answer they are looking for, however, so it will not be done.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
  123. HA says:
    @AnotherDad

    Our plague is minoritarianism: “racism!”, “diversity is our greatest strength”, “nation of immigrants”, “xenophobia!”, “gender is socially constructed”, “structural racism” …

    I’m not saying that’s wrong, but it has absolutely no bearing on whether anti-vaxxers are getting to be as worrisome as COVID, which was the point I was addressing. In any case, even if you’re going to take the tack you’re taking, the lesson to be drawn from COVID is that you’re going to oppose all that, have more than lame conspiracy theories (not to mention anti-vaxxer cherry-picking) to offer. Otherwise, you’ll just make your opponents look good, and that’s going to be on you.

    I will note that I haven’t seen Steve Sailer making that mistake, but then again, he’s not buying into the corona-truther fallacies either.

  124. @Anonymous

    It’s not dictatorial, our leaders are elected democratically.

    I’m not sure to what extent you are being sarcastic. But Hitler was also elected democratically. He became dictator under a completely lawful grant of “emergency power” which never expired (until he did, anyway). Corona virus is our Reichstag Fire.

  125. @Redman

    “It does not show that excess deaths are increasing recently.”

    The notes explain that deaths take several weeks to trickle onto the graph, which means the latest week always looks like: “Oh, good, nothing to worry about!” even when deaths are steadily rising like right now.

    But without all the hysteria, how much would deaths be up? Notice that deaths were 37% higher than average nationally in the second week in April, then started to fall as the severe responses in March began to reduce new infections. In New York City that week, they were 630% above average. One NYC emergency room doctor recounted that the ambulances stopped arriving about midday on April 7, IIRC.

    With the, so far, peak in excess deaths being the second week in April, before the long term stresses of the response had much time to undermine health, that would suggest that most of the deaths were due to the pandemic. In the very long run, who knows? Fortunately, we should have a vaccine to end the long run, if Americans are brave enough to take it.

    • Replies: @Redman
  126. HA says:
    @Thoughts

    “A vaccine has a lot more in it then just the Wild Virus, it has components, and sometimes even uses other flu viruses…

    Yes, it certainly has components of the Wild Virus — that’s how vaccines work. As for the “other flu” viruses, I take it you’re claiming that these are somehow more deadly than the cytokine storms, organ failure, ground-glass opacity, etc., that coronavirus can cause. If so, then prove it. Let’s compare numbers.

    Is this the opening of a new corona-truther argument? “Hey, when we said it was just the flu, bro, what we really meant was that the regular flu viruses — that they supposedly put in vaccines though I’m suspiciously unclear on the specifics — is just as likely to cause organ failure as COVID, and it’s those components that should really scare you.”

    Sorry, no dice. And if you had an actual substantive argument to make, you’d have more than handwaving references to how vaccines “sometimes even use other flu viruses”. Are we supposed to be shocked or alarmed by that given how many times the coronatruthers have told us the flu is nothing whatsoever to get worked up about? Give it a rest.

    • Replies: @Thoughts
  127. @Anon

    I agree with masking, not with endless lockdowns and must say I’m disappointed that we hacen’t put more emphasis on standardized home treatments. Oh well, vaccine rollout makes for exciting mass entertainment.

    Our public health “authorities” just suck:

    January — “racism is the real virus”, “no place for xenophobia” back when a hard border closure and quarantines could have done some real good.

    February — “wash your hands and don’t touch your face!”

    March –“people don’t need masks”, “stop wearing masks” … back when masks on transit, stores could have done a world of good; “hydroxychoroquine+zinc is unsupported and can kill you”; need ventilators!

    April — “killer beaches!”, “killer golf!”, “killer parks!”, “don’t go outside!”

    May — “everyone should wear a mask or you’re killing people”

    June — “racism is a critical public health issue”, “gathering to protest racism is legitimate”

    Sept — “Trump’s super-spreader rallies are irresponsible”

    Oct — “don’t count on a vaccine to end this pandemic”

    Nov — “no Thanksgiving”

    Completely missing … taking any steps yourself:
    — vitamin D, vitamin C, zinc+quercetin (or another zinc ionophore)
    — humidification
    — lose weight
    — get outside in the fresh air and exercise, stay healthy

    These “public health” “authorities” are beyond incompetent parasites, they are sniveling apparatchiks of the wannabe totalitarian politicians. They need to be tarred and feathered and ridden out on a rail.

  128. @Thoughts

    Vaccine skeptics:

    Again
    — the Xi virus is not in any sense “natural”

    — you have your choice of getting the Xi virus made in a Chinese lab last year, or a vaccine made in an America, German, British or Russian lab this year

    — the Xi virus makes your ribosomes replicate the virus; the virus has the spike protein and can cause all sorts of vascular problems, including effing up your lungs … and can kill you

    — the vaccine makes your ribosomes replicate the spike protein–which gets your immune system activated and primed to kill the virus if it shows up–but doesn’t cause all the nasty vascular issues; chance of significant side effects are miniscule compared to the virus.

    Logically this is not a tough choice for rational people.

  129. @Redman

    Nobody is arguing that Covid hasn’t caused many deaths, but I don’t think that a one-year increase of 12% (or less if the month of January was included) can by itself explain the national hysteria we’ve seen in 2020.

    We are a much more feminized and risk averse and conformist nation than we were generations past.

    As a Scoutmaster i had a good look at the level of helicopter parenting that goes on. (Families and their approaches vary wildly, but there’s a trend.) Part of this risk aversion stems from simply fewer children. All your eggs are in one basket … you better watch that basket! Which in turns means less opportunity to make your own mistakes, less “growing up”, less maturity.

    And then there’s “get Trump”. The desire to tie the virus around Trump’s neck and drown him with it was intense. For that to work the virus had to be *Very Serious*, a *Catastrophe* that required the management of experts, whom Trump ignored.

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman
  130. “[Placebos] are the most obvious way to get back to the good old days.”

    Fixed it for ya.

    There’s no vax for something that doesn’t exist.

    Ninnies and facediaperists (but I repeat muhself) to the front of the fakezine line, men with functioning brains and balls to the back of the bus.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  131. @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    Look who is too frightened to take a new vaccine.

    • Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen
  132. I’m so glad FPD72 pull it through.

    Just- it was a risk.

  133. @Steve Sailer

    “Look who is too frightened to take a new vaccine.”

    Nah, bruh. I don’t participate in hoaxes or mass hysterias – I have too much intelligence, integrity, and dignity to strap a diaper on my face or get a fake vaccine.

    Remember, my bedshitter, that this here GenX immune system is 43 times more effective than even the best fakevax out of Muh Russia.

    No facediaper, no fakevax. This is not a negotiation.

  134. ken says:
    @Mike Tre

    The funniest thing I hear is, “I’m not worried about myself, but for my kids.” Of all the things linked to COVID that have been disproven the one thing we knew early and has remained true through this year is that overwhemingly young people have little to no symptoms. The COVID passed through my family three weeeks ago. 23 year old son had the equivalent of 48 hour flu. Wife and I had a week of mild respiratory illness. Three youngest (13-17) nothing. The kids are the ones getting royally screwed by the lockdowns and panic.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  135. ken says:
    @Thoughts

    In my COVID party of 6 nobody broke 100.

    • Replies: @Thoughts
  136. Muggles says:
    @theMann

    Thank God no one can be objective, because the first thing you would understand is how pathetic you are.

    Ah yes, berating your audience for their persistent stupidity is the first step towards persuasion. No wonder you are so rich and famous.

    BTW: I’ve read several accounts of Lewis & Clark’s expedition and never heard of any of them being afflicted with malaria. That was common only in very southern climes.

    Also, I’ve had malaria. You wouldn’t be traipsing across 2,000 miles of wilderness and back if you had it.

  137. Mike Tre says:
    @HA

    Within 30 days TPTB were able to get 300 million people to start wearing masks, and become hostile to any heretic who dared resist. My observation of that calamity is not hysteria.

    “Despite that very long list, you want to claim that the COVID “lockdowns” that shut down your gym and pickup bar are the real outrage and that you’re the real victim.”

    “you want to claim that the COVID “lockdowns” that shut down your gym and pickup bar are the real outrage and that you’re the real victim.”

    I never said this. You’re just a liar. LOL. Coupled with the fact that you must resort to 2nd grade level insults and have earned the agreement of some of our garden variety commie eurotrash, is more validation than I could hope for.

    • Replies: @HA
  138. Muggles says:
    @Thoughts

    Covid: A Bunch of old people afraid of dying, so they torture young people.

    You obviously know nothing about “old people” or torture.

    But if you think foolish hyperbole makes you sound smart, you are wrong.

  139. utu says:
    @HA

    But as for surviving this plague of anti-vaxxers and corona-truthers, that kind of comorbidity is starting to seem far more problematic.

    Look at the positive side of it. The kooks and idiots were outed by the Covid-19. Now you know who they are. Apart form the feeble minded who lose it even under the low stress levels there are seemingly intelligent people who in the past one could have engaged in a conversation or consider their opinions on many subjects but now they all have turned out to have so severe characterological and ideological biases that make them unable to parse a rather simple reality that surrounds them. They are just like faulty machines that got stuck and can’t get out of the loop.

    How big is the plague? I hope that in the general population their prevalence is still below the irreversible damage threshold though certainly they are and will be used as the nursery where the hostile and dangerous memes are planted by those who want to harm us. But what about the Unz Review? The number of them is really alarming here. Do they constitute 50% or is it 75% of Unz review commentariat? Should we apply the poisonous tree legal metaphor and dismiss 75% of everything that is being uttered at the Unz Review? Will the Unz Review recover from the Covid-19 pandemic? It almost seems as if the Covid-19 accomplished the Cass Sunstein’s cognitive infiltration scheme.

    • Replies: @HA
  140. Thoughts says:
    @HA

    I am glad there is a vaccine (not the mRNA one…the more traditional ones)

    I have no doubt that certain ethnicities are at Very High Risk for Covid. And those people, like the Filipino Nurses, should get the non-mRNA vaccine IF THEY SO CHOOSE and on government dime.

    That’s fine with me.

    BUT….

    We are in very dangerous territory of Old People Requiring Young People to Take Vaccines. To attend UCSD, you must take the Flu Vaccine.

    That is NOT cool. I know someone personally, now a dead person, who got the Flu Vaccine, then got hospitalized, was given Tamiflu and Cytokine Stormed her Way to Heaven or Hell within a month (I’m not sure how long from flu vaccine to death…but she didn’t feel well…then she felt fine…then she got really ill etc etc)

    I am 100% sure that if she had not gotten the flu vaccine that woman would be alive today. 100% sure.

    That’s my real life. That’s not imaginary internet life. That’s not statistical life. That’s someone I knew, and I learned from. Not to mention my own FATHER who was forced to take the flu vaccine, consistently and repetitively got ill from it.

    So when Steve Sailer’s commentator talks about a 101 Fever for 4 days….That is not confidence inducing.

    Furthermore you have articles like these that raise Red Flags…

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/10/could-certain-covid-19-vaccines-leave-people-more-vulnerable-aids-virus

    And an article on mRNA and Autoimmune disorders that I can’t find right now

    You can 100% take the vaccine, Steve Sailer can take the vaccine, Scott Adams can take the vaccine.

    But no one should be REQUIRED to take it, and I Know if you guys all had your way you would UCSD the whole country.

    And that’s the problem.

    • Replies: @HA
    , @Anonymous
    , @Jack D
  141. Muggles says:

    While I have sympathy with those here who want to make their own choices and take decisions about risk, they are missing the point.

    We don’t live in isolation. Fear, whether rational or not, is one of the major motivations for human behavior.

    We now are experiencing tremendous government overreach, since ‘our leaders’ are proven to be just as clueless and helpless as everyone else. Few will admit it though. Instead the authoritarian ones (mainly but not exclusively Democrats) love the fear mongering so they can increase their hold on the public.

    But “fear” is what creates 80% of what governments are now allowed by the public to do. Our heroic libertarian sentiments of self determination do not govern the political parameters of what the public is “allowed” to do. Instead the usual lowest common denominator of fear is what sets the standards. Safety uber alles.

    Yes you can vent and gripe but it is just noise. Women in general are more fear sensitive than men. Children and all of that.

    While most “safety” concerns are overblown or irrational (i.e. thinking driving is safer than flying) when you live in a society of people you have to cope with irrational fears.

    COVID-19 has proven to confound scientists, doctors and of course politicians. What we read here 6 months ago has come and gone. Not much better understood now than before. All we can do as intelligent people is to demonstrate that we respect the fearful but don’t live in fear. So mask up but try to learn facts and support a return to normalcy as soon as possible.

    We have to calm overly fearful people. Rational empathy works best, not scorn.

  142. Thoughts says:
    @ken

    Is this is real comment?

    I would like to see twin studies done on wild viruses versus vaccines

    • Replies: @ken
  143. Thoughts says:

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32156-5/fulltext

    And this is what I was getting at in a previous Steve Sailer post

    https://www.reddit.com/r/
    NoNewNormal/comments/jy23ne/why_the_mrna_vaccines_terrify_me_and_why_im_never/

    Prions and mRNA (I got the idea before reading this post on Reddit, as I commented last Friday on iSteve…just another person thinking along the same lines)

    And somewhere, now I can’t find it with google, but I did link to it in another Steve Sailer comment, I swear it was NyPost…It was titled ‘mRNA and autoimmune disease’

    It’s now off the Google searches I did a few days ago which is not confidence inducing…

  144. Redman says:
    @Steve Sailer

    Here’s the CDC chart with the raw numbers rather than the graph.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

    It’s not just the last week or the last month. Excess deaths have been about the same for quite a while; they’ve been a bit higher than normal but no more than 12% for any week since 9/5/20. The same 12% excess death rate since February, the entire Covid period.

    There’s no question this is a bad flu. But there are possible reasons for the much higher number of deaths in NY back in March/April. I live in Westchester but work in NYC and got Covid on 3/10. Went to a local clinic on 3/13 and was told I definitely “didn’t have it” ( despite the clinic having no test to give me) because I didn’t have a cough. That was some of the high level medical care we were getting here in the Big Apple. I tested positive for the antibodies at my annual physical a few weeks ago. The number of iatrogenic “Covid” deaths in NY during that time will probably never be known.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  145. ken says:
    @Thoughts

    I’m not sure what you mean, but yes in my household of 6 positive COVIDs nobody’s temperature broke 100. 23 year old son clocked in at 99.6 for one day; everyone else never had any temperature above mid-98s.

  146. @Redman

    Keep in mind that the CDC death numbers lag by several weeks, so they don’t yet show the Third Hump in deaths that the country is currently undergoing. But in a month late November will look bad on the CDC excess death counts. The current death rate in late November appears to be higher than the second hump in July-August when deaths by week hit 25% over normal, and closing in on April when they got to 42% over normal for two weeks in the middle of the month.

    The good news is that the worst appears to be over in the North Central states. But there is a lot of the country teed up to get hit hard as the weather begins to approximate what it was in the Dakotas a month ago.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
  147. HA says:
    @Mike Tre

    “Within 30 days TPTB were able to get 300 million people to start wearing masks, and become hostile to any heretic who dared resist. My observation of that calamity…”

    Calamity, you say? THAT? Well, hold on while I fetch the smelling salts and unclutch my pearls. THAT, in your estimation, is “the greatest seizure of individual liberties ever perpetrated on the American people”? THAT? Being told to strap on a strap of fabric the way they had to do during prior flu epidemics even though the masks of the time were far less effective? THAT, to you, is greater than Ruby Ridge, greater than anything having to do with the IRS or NSA, or the many thousands who died in hellish circumstances through forced consription? THAT is even worse than the incarceration that those in the days of Typhoid Mary had to endure, or what Tuskegee Syphylis Trials, or MKUltra subjects had to deal with?

    As noted, I can give you large body counts associated with a number of these — how much hostility, as measured in body counts, was meted out to these heretics you speak of, and did that have anything to do with the asinine behavior of the heretics themselves?”

    If that’s the best reply you’re able to muster, you needn’t have bothered. Doubling down on idiotic statements doesn’t make you brave or insightful — it just makes your idiocy doubly obvious.

  148. HA says:
    @Thoughts

    “I am 100% sure that if she had not gotten the flu vaccine that woman would be alive today. 100% sure.”

    That’s supposed to sway me?

    I’m sorry to hear some woman died, but how about you go and get some data that actually matters about those “other flu viruses” that are the “backbone” of this vaccine and explain how the odds of getting birth defects from any such vaccine is greater than those you’d get from the wild virus — you know, kind of like the vaccine makers are forced to do every single time they put something out — and then we’ll talk? Certainly vaccines can kill, and in some car accidents the seat belt actually winds up being what kills you. But again, you have to look at the whole probability distribution, not just anectodal data consisting of your utterly worthless 100% convictions about someone whose death you claim to have figured out.

    Like I said, now we’re starting to see who the real hysterics are, to a level matched only by their hypocrisy, given how readily they’ve been accusing everyone else of giving in to panic.

    And kudos to UCSD for denying access to herd-immunity free riders. If data-free assertions like yours are the best they can offer in their favor, it makes me think there should be more of that.

  149. Anonymous[249] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anon

    When this is all over, we need to pass legislation that grants individuals, businesses, and institutions something resembling qualified immunity for disease transmission.

    Ironically, the Left Machine has been working on this for years as part of its Coalition of the Fringes strategy.

    In California, San Francisco senator Scott Wiener (well-known sock puppet for Big Money interests) initiated a bill (now in effect) to downgrade the act of INTENTIONALLY infecting another person (e.g. with AIDS) from a felony to a misdemeanor.

    Civil liability for infection is in practice very hard to enforce unless the defendant is a hospital, care home etc. and thus under a SPECIAL duty to prevent the spread of infections.

  150. HA says:
    @utu

    “The number of them is really alarming here. Do they constitute 50% or is it 75% of Unz review commentariat?”

    I wouldn’t hazard a guess, but say what you will of Richard Epstein — once his forecast of 5,000 was blown through, he had the good grace to shut up and disappear. The hapless fool who told us all we had to pay attention to “flat” MOMA graphs — two weeks before they spiked up — and who kept telling us that “only 10,000 dead” Wittkowski was the man of the hour and Sweden was the savior of Western civilization, doesn’t seem to be commenting around here much either. The pothead who downloaded his own SIR model and after a week or so of twiddling with it claimed that it was better than what the CDC had — he, too, seems to have decided that spending more time with his bong and griping about the police was a better use of his time than pretending that after two weeks in he’s smarter than people who have spent an entire career forecasting these things.

    Nowadays, it’s an ever more desperate bunch, like the self-appointed schoolmarm of the white race who predicted that even 5,000 was ridiculous overreach but still fancies himself as a COVID expert of some sort, or the one who assured us that a COVID vaccine was “unobtainium”, or the militia-kook who proudly boasts of urinating into Powerade bottles and tossing them at cars with CA license plates. Or the anti-vaxxer who thinks his a peace-sign emoji can cover over his blood trail. They still have plenty of back-slappers, and they’ll continue to seize on whatever new bogus gotcha argument comes through the usual conspiracy channels — e.g. the John Hopkins “bombshell”– but overall, it’s a decimated and dwindling lot. Sure, those disaffected and fed up with COVID restrictions will keep growing, but that’s to be expected.

    • Replies: @utu
    , @utu
  151. @Mike Tre

    My 17 year is missing out on the entire right of passage that is the senior year experience. My 13 year old is missing out on her lesser but still important 8th grade right of passage.

    Passage was never a right. It was a rite, and one you had to earn the right to go through. More evidence of the crisis of faith in America.


    • Replies: @Mike Tre
  152. @ken

    Ken, I talked to a friend of mine about what the elementary school is supposedly all worried about enough to:

    a) force the kids to wear masks all day with the exception of during eating and some kind of 10 minute break during P.E.

    b) leave the masks on even during recess when the must be STILL 6′ apart. Tag is out.

    c) go to different areas of the playground during this so-called recess for certain periods so playground equipment can be wiped down or something. Geeeze!

    d) not share ANYTHING, not pencils or pencil sharpeners. They can’t play chess.

    e) have little plexiglass walls around them during class.

    “Hey, the kids are fine. How can they pretend to not know that?” I asked my friend that, and he said the supposed point is that kids won’t spread the dread Kung Flu to other kids, hence to other families back at home.

    Why do I keep writing “supposed”? It’s because these people know this is all futile bullshit. They know that the kids are hanging out at the park in groups of 2 to 20, close enough to share spit and boogers. This week, mine and other kids were doing sword fights with 8 to 10 foot long sticks at the park. If the school principal drove by, she’d have to pull a Sergeant Shultz “I see NOTHINK … NOTHINK!”

    Oh, none of us parents were wearing masks, sitting on the benches, eventually freezing our asses off (at least me, cause we stayed over 5 hours). It was a temporary “Escape from Stupidity”.

    • Replies: @ken
  153. Anonymous[249] • Disclaimer says:
    @Thoughts

    To attend UCSD, you must take the Flu Vaccine.

    To state the obvious, the point of a vaccine is to prevent infection of the vaccinated subject.

    If Student A chooses not to be vaccinated, she only risks infecting others who WERE NOT VACCINATED EITHER.

    • Replies: @HA
  154. Jack D says:
    @Thoughts

    There also used to be stories (mostly false) about people who perished as a result of wearing their car seatbelts – trapped in a burning or underwater car. This is not a good reason not to wear seatbelts. Even if these stories are true, for every person who is killed by a vaccine or by safety belts, hundreds or thousands are saved by them. It’s just innumerate to look at the handful that are killed and ignore the thousands who are saved. BTW, we have mandatory seatbelt laws too, to save people from their own stupidity.

    • Agree: Johann Ricke
  155. @Hypnotoad666

    I do want to quibble.

    You want to argue about definitions and the like, not quibble about numbers, specifically if 11 “severe” cases only in the control arm of the Moderna trial are statistically significant or not.

    Our worldviews and thus definitions are so far apart we don’t have a basis for discussion.

    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666
  156. @Steve Sailer

    Keep in mind that the CDC death numbers lag by several weeks, so they don’t yet show the Third Hump in deaths that the country is currently undergoing.

    And that rate might be generally lower because we’re now better at treating it, most of the country is not going to handle their new highs as badly as the New York metro area, and unlike New Jersey, which achieved a higher per capita death rate, New York, Pennsylvania, and maybe one or more other states run by Blue politicians, doesn’t view this as an opportunity to decrease their Medicaid budget through arranging excess deaths of mostly Silent Generation indigents in nursing homes. Cuomo’s state budget unexpectedly blew up by 6 billion dollars in the fall of last year, 2/3rds of that due to Medicaid.

    That said, my deepest Red of Red state area is now overwhelmingly losing that class of people in long term care facilities, whereas we were able to keep it limited to one facility in the first wave. I think we got too complacent.

    But in a month late November will look bad on the CDC excess death counts. The current death rate in late November appears to be higher than the second hump in July-August when deaths by week hit 25% over normal, and closing in on April when they got to 42% over normal for two weeks in the middle of the month.

    The good news is that the worst appears to be over in the North Central states. But there is a lot of the country teed up to get hit hard as the weather begins to approximate what it was in the Dakotas a month ago.

    I’m in a significantly warmer part of the country and we’re now getting hit hard, not NYC hard, but enough we probably qualify for the new purple level of COVID-19 intensity that was added on top of red. No free beds to speak of for 150 miles in all directions, and the option a bit further is filling up fast. ER staff are spending a lot of their time trying to find free COID-19 beds to admit patents in a bad way, and in the meantime bunking these cases and necessarily giving them substandard care compared to those who are more specialized and experienced with long term treatment of it. They also mention a normal hospital patient spends an average of four and a half days admitted, COVID-19 patients are averaging a couple of weeks.

    One thing a vaccine will help is that locally I know we’re more staffing than pure number of beds limited, a lot of workers are out due to COVID-19, sick with it, caring for those sick with it, or quarantined due to a non-work related exposure.

    • Replies: @Jack D
  157. Mike Tre says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    My 17 year old is also confirmed. Thanks for the correction.

  158. HA says:
    @Anonymous

    “If Student A chooses not to be vaccinated, she only risks infecting others who WERE NOT VACCINATED EITHER.”

    Wr0ng. She also risks the one who took the vaccine but still might get sick. No one ever claimed that vaccines are foolproof. But if enough people get vaccinated, the virus will be unable to gain a foothold, so to speak, and that will wind up saving those who fall through the vaccine’s cracks.

  159. Curious statistic about Covid-19 deaths in Sweden from here:

    https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/11/29/how-many-years-of-life-are-lost-to-covid/

    Considering that the average age of those who have died of covid in Sweden is 84, while the average age of death in Sweden more generally is 82,

    So, have I got this correct? Contracting SARS-CoV-2 actually increases your life expectancy?

  160. ken says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    My younger kids go to a small private school which provides updates about positive cases. Of the handful of kids who have tested positive they have all contracted COVID from within their family not from a fellow student as was the case with my family.

  161. Dave Huff says:

    “Vaccines are the most obvious way to get back to the good old days.”

    What a line of horse manure…..

  162. @Anonymous

    Mike Tre’s probably one of these white trash who doesn’t even see education as being on the radar as far as the purpose of schooling. It’s babysitting and a place for the older kids to socialize and get laid. My wife worked in a school like that for a few years, half white trash and half Mexicans, many of whom were illegal. She’s try to explain to the parents that their kids were failing but they’d just look at her with empty eyes and ask “what’s the problem?” Because to them it’s all about the “senior year experience.”

    • Replies: @ken
  163. Jack D says:
    @That Would Be Telling

    While emptying the nursing homes may have been a nice fringe benefit, I don’t think Cuomo intended to kill off NY’s elderly population, That was down to incompetence.

    Red state area is now overwhelmingly losing that class of people in long term care facilities,

    This is further proof of same. The spread of Covid in nursing homes, with their vibrant staff who go home every night and unsanitary conditions, is almost inevitable for such a virulent disease. To really stop the disease you would have to have the staff live in and not go home every night to communities and families where the disease is widespread.

    We have kept our 98 year old mother in law away from almost everyone during the pandemic, but she did have one regular 70 year old African-American caretaker. Last week, someone in the caretaker’s home (she lives with her daughter) brought home Covid. As soon as she found out (to her credit) she stopped coming to work. The other day we found out that everyone in her home (including her) had come down with Covid and she is now very sick and in the hospital. Luckily (we are now on day 8 and no symptoms – usually these appear on day 4 or 5) so far my MIL does not seem to have caught it. Hopefully the caretaker stopped coming to work before she reached the infectious phase. But it easily could have been different – the caretaker could have said “I feel fine and I need the money. I’m going to keep coming to work until I feel sick (or maybe even after).”

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
  164. @Jack D

    While emptying the nursing homes may have been a nice fringe benefit, I don’t think Cuomo intended to kill off NY’s elderly population, That was down to incompetence.

    This has been much discussed, and the several Blue states that made rulings that nursing homes must accept COVID-19 positive cases no matter their ability to isolate them goes way beyond “incompetence.” Other states like mine focused on protecting these populations, but as mentioned, are now failing to a greater degree than they did in the first wave.

    Here is just the first clipping I made on the subject, I can supply many more, it’s David Greenfield on April 24th with a comprehensive review, long before the toll got perhaps as high as 20,000 in New York, for which we must estimate because they’re fudging their statistics by not counting victims who got it in the nursing home, but then died in a hospital. He didn’t mention Pennsylvania, where the thing that’s the head of their public health removed it’s mother from one before the new rules came into effect.

    Good to hear about your mother-in-law, 8 days is getting to be reassuring, sorry to hear about your responsible caretaker, hope she pulls through. The latter acting on the basis of exposure and quarantine instead of for example waiting for symptoms probably made the difference. I wish more people were that altruistic; here we have an overabundance of the opposite attitude that sometimes drives me to despair. And mostly out of the conventional Right.

    • Replies: @utu
  165. utu says:
    @That Would Be Telling

    This has been much discussed, and the several Blue states that made rulings that nursing homes must accept COVID-19 positive cases no matter their ability to isolate them goes way beyond “incompetence.”

    If not incompetence then what? Blue states planned Holocaust?

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
  166. utu says:
    @HA

    …who kept telling us that “only 10,000 dead” Wittkowski was the man of the hour… – Wittkowski is still in the game. Wittkowski was named as an expert witness in the suit against masking (October 8, 2020).

    New experts named for lawsuit challenging school mask rules
    https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-connecticut-lawsuits-hartford-archive-3013e1c4e4722a468b4e10209c0ff94a

    It should not be difficult for the defense attorney to make a mincemeat out of Wittkowski on the basis of his past predictions.

  167. @utu

    This has been much discussed, and the several Blue states that made rulings that nursing homes must accept COVID-19 positive cases no matter their ability to isolate them goes way beyond “incompetence.”

    If not incompetence then what? Blue states planned Holocaust?

    Exactly. The costs of Medicaid, medical care in some form for the indigent, is “shared” between the Feds and each state, and you may remember there has been a great deal of fighting over this WRT to Obamacare which paid states initially but not forever if they expanded who was allowed in the program, see the link for more.

    It’s always one of the biggest line items in a state’s budget, and for New York, we know that in the previous fall Cuomo found himself facing an unexpected $6 billion budget shortfall, 2/3rds from Medicaid. One of the bigger line items in state Medicaid budgets is long term care for the indigent elderly, after they officially spend the last penny they own, plus all their pension money including SSA and I assume SSI minus $66/month, thus the maneuvers to give away as much money as they legally can before they get to that point.

    We don’t know this is why so many Blue states implemented these policies of forcing nursing homes to accept COVID-19 positive cases, but it is awfully convenient….

    • Replies: @utu
  168. utu says:
    @HA

    I keep wondering about the possibility that “It is just a flu” and “Do nothing” memes were seeded purposefully. So who is behind it? Who benefits?

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-128/#comment-4298733

    “Is there an external factor that drove them mad? Are the theories about covid-19 purposefully seeded and propagated by those who want us to fail? Who would want us to fail? Could we consider China as our enemy who wishes us ill? What about Big Pharma’s interests? They want to arrive as a knight on a white horse bringing us vaccines and selling them to billions? Is China desperate for vaccines? Not really because they did the right thing. While they work on it and test it they are not desperate because they did everything what is being argued against by most of the UR commentariat.”

    Only on UR could you find people who think COVID-19 doesn’t exist but it was deliberately engineered by the evil Chinese communists.

    “This is interesting that you put the two memes together because Ron Unz who refuses to consider any possibility that outside agencies whether Chinese or Russian play any role in spreading the nonsense about the Covid-19 points to Andrew Anglin as one of the first seeding the memes of “just a flu” or “virus does not exist” to counteract the “China did it” meme.”

    https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/lifting-the-lockdown-easy-does-it/#comment-3863472

    So I suspect that he realized the “China bioweapon” story was just too well entrenched among (gullible) right-wing activists to be easily dislodged with more plausible information when the topic really became hot in America around then. And he decided to launch a clever flank attack instead, and focus on the “It’s Just the Flu!!!” nonsense, which had also been floating around in fringe circles.

    “To Ron Unz the fact that what Anglin did what exactly was what Chinese propaganda via its agents of influence should/would have done is jus a coincidence. This might be so in case of Anglin but the seeding occurred in many other places.”

    “Anyway, I am seriously considering of a possibility that we are under an external attack that uses a misguided stupid fraction.”

    Here is my comment where I include Germany into the conspiracy:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/pfizer-releases-final-vaccine-stats-162-170th-effective/#comment-4294836
    …quite a few German credentialed talking heads (mostly on YT) provide lots of ammo to the covidiots. What’s up with Germany? A country which penalizes any alternative reading of history is tolerant of all kinds of mumbo-jumbo when it comes to medical science.

  169. utu says:
    @That Would Be Telling

    Thanks but this is not enough to make the allegation that people in nursing homes where on purpose ‘genocided.’ I think that the fear of hospital bed shortage which did not materialize in the end was the the reason. There was plenty of beds available in temporary hospitals in NYC which have not be used. Imo it was a gross criminal incompetence but still just an incompetence.

  170. @Steve Sailer

    Are you implying we should trust CDC?
    I don’t.

    Here’s “meaningful” data from two hospitals in west-central Florida, where “meaningful” means all sides of the story are told: how many got sick, how many in hospital, how much capacity in hospital, etc.

    In Sarasota and Manatee counties hospitals, hospitals never reached a point where genuinely ill patients could not be appropriately treated; and while whopper numbers of “cases” dominate media, the failure of media to tell The Rest of the Story approaches yelling fire in a crowded theater criminality.

    The Rest of the Story is that very, very few people die of Covid.

    https://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2020/11/why-does-the-media-refuse-to-report-meaningful-data-on-covid.html

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
  171. @SolontoCroesus

    Are you implying we should trust CDC?
    I don’t.

    I don’t either, but the level of incompetence and/or malfeasance required for them to screw up this data would be significant, especially if they do any internal cross checking. It’s merely tallies of the total death certificates they receive. Errors in reporting this sort of data could include missing out or double counting batches of reports, it’s certainly possible, but on the other hand I’d hope states report these bottom line numbers, which would allow some cross checking.

    Here’s “meaningful” data from two hospitals….

    That’s nice to hear. Where I’m at, we’re in the new purple zone, and it appears to extend for 150 miles in all directions. More details on request after I sleep tonight, or check my commenting history.

  172. ken says:
    @Smile Smitler

    Or he could be talking about things like competitive sports or plays or chamber choir/band. I’d guess your high school days were probably more like your description than mine because you don’t seem to realize high school is more than classroom lessons. My sons’ private high school normally takes a summer trip to Civil War battle fields; couldn’t happen this year. My senior daughter is a border line D3/D2 softball player; Pritzker is probably taking away her last two seasons, but who cares? My home schooled youngest daughter can’t continue piano lessons because we can’t find an instructor willing to come to our house; no big deal in your little mind. Our kids are getting royally screwed by the great fear of 2020, it is unfortunate that you don’t see that.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  173. @That Would Be Telling

    You want to argue about definitions and the like, not quibble about numbers, specifically if 11 “severe” cases only in the control arm of the Moderna trial are statistically significant or not.

    Our worldviews and thus definitions are so far apart we don’t have a basis for discussion.

    Let’s recap:

    1. I claimed that, because covid is so innocuous, the Moderna trial shows no improvement in actual health outcomes from the vaccine, despite it being 95% effective in preventing infection.

    2. You counter-claimed that I was wrong because covid supposedly caused 11 “severe cases” in the placebo arm, but zero in the vaccine arm.

    3. I showed, however, that the 11:0 ratio is utterly meaningless because the definition of “severe case” that the study expressly used is circular. It merely counts up the number of people who had both positive covid tests and severe symptoms, with no requirement of causation. Thus, a 95% effective vaccine would automatically produce an expected 20:1 ratio even if the occurrence of severe health symptoms has nothing to do with covid.

    4. Your final response is simply that “definitions and the like” are a “matter of worldview.” And therefore you won’t engage with the logic refuting your position.

    Bottom line: You are wrong and I was right: The Moderna study contains zero evidence that the vaccine is more effective than a placebo in improving anyone’s health outcomes. But you believe your worldview allows you to just continue making illogical and baseless assertions about how dangerous covid is, and how great vaccines are.

    • Replies: @Jack D
  174. @ken

    This is not to take away from anything in your good comment, but here’s a suggestion, Ken: See if the piano teacher will do lessons on-line. I didn’t want any of it and resisted this for a month, but it turned out to work pretty well, and this is for a 9 y/o. It wasn’t just about the young lady instructor worrying about the Kung Flu (though she seems to be – kind of silly IMO), but about access to the pianos where we used to go.

    Come to think of it, I did suggest she come over and do the lessons at our house (only 3 miles away), but, yeah, she seemed really worried about doing that. This is a 24 y/o, who I go visit once a month to pay in cash for the lessons. Does she clean the bills with sanitizer after I leave the porch?

    • Replies: @Adam Smith
  175. Great news from Moderna.

    Of 196 COVID-19 cases so far in its huge U.S. study, 185 were trial participants who received the placebo and 11 who got the real vaccine. The only people who got severely ill — 30 participants, including one who died — had received dummy shots, said Dr. Tal Zaks, the Cambridge, Massachusetts, company’s chief medical officer.

    https://apnews.com/article/technology-pandemics-europe-coronavirus-pandemic-a65a00cdf9725c9104886ded9052a85d

    So basically, its vaccine is 94% effective by these numbers, with its participants deliberately chosen to have representative portions of vulnerable populations, including elderly and minorities (unlike Pfizer’s). More importantly, not a single severe case was to be found in those receiving the vaccine. Since Pfizer’s had among its vaccinated at least one severe case reported (in an early subset of 11 cases — I don’t know if there are reports of the final toll), that suggests that it might not be as effective, though the statistics likely aren’t there yet.

    This is looking really encouraging for a return to civilization.

    • Replies: @Seneca44
  176. @Achmed E. Newman

    If you have a piano or keyboard, and you’re taking lessons on-line anyway, why not try youtube?

    https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=learn+to+play+piano

    I learn guitar songs that way…

    Does she clean the bills with sanitizer after I leave the porch?

    Maybe she’s laundering the cash?

  177. Jack D says:
    @Hypnotoad666

    I showed, however, that the 11:0 ratio is utterly meaningless because the definition of “severe case” that the study expressly used is circular. It merely counts up the number of people who had both positive covid tests and severe symptoms, with no requirement of causation. Thus, a 95% effective vaccine would automatically produce an expected 20:1 ratio even if the occurrence of severe health symptoms has nothing to do with covid.

    You showed nothing of the sort. As a matter of fact, they counted everyone with “severe symptoms” whether or not they were coronavirus positive too. But even if they hadn’t, then at worst we don’t know how many people with non-Covid “severe symptoms” existed in EITHER arm. However you would expect a roughly equal # (X) and whatever that number is, the placebo arm would have 11+X severe cases and the vaccine arm would have X severe cases. So it is by no means circular and your conclusion is false.

    See candid observer’s post and link above. What you said is just totally, completely wrong.

    • Thanks: That Would Be Telling
    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666
  178. Seneca44 says:
    @candid_observer

    Moderna is reported to have the FDA meeting regarding Emergency Use Authorization on December 17. That is nearly three weeks away. Is that time period consistent with government defined “emergency”?
    If an emergency truly exists, can’t the FDA be torn away from regulating 100 year old drugs (like colchicine) or devices (like epi pens)? Perhaps there is more data to accumulate which might support a delay, but that is not being reported. Of course, even if 100% approval is given, nothing will happen in USGovernmentWorld until after January 1.

    • Replies: @Jack D
  179. HA says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    “In Japan, more people died from suicide last month than from Covid in all of 2020. And women have been impacted most”

    Well, off course. Good for them. If they had gotten coronavirus cases down to near zero, then more people would have died from ANYTHING else, be it bee stings or rickety ladders. That’s how it SHOULD have gone down.

    If the fire truck zooms out of the station in record time and the firemen do everything that they’re supposed to, and manage to put out that fire in your house before it gets enormous, then the vast majority of the resultant damage will be due to their efforts — the water damage, the incineration caused by any backfires they might have had to set, whatever they had to rip open or bust through, etc. That doesn’t mean they shouldn’t have been called. In fact, without their efforts, the fire might have brought down your whole house and every other house on the block had it simply been allowed to rip.

    Even if those claiming that this year’s death toll is no worse than that of a typical year all things considered, they’re just claiming the social distancing, masks, lockdowns, etc. did what they were supposed to do, just like those firemen did. I realize they also want to pretend that the death toll wouldn’t be materially worse with no social distancing but that’s a ridiculous argument at this point given that every time that people slacked off on anti-COVID measures, the overall death toll began to rise, despite the fact that it was summertime when heat and humidity were supposed to make this go away on its own, and despite the fact that we were “almost at herd immunity’ or whatever other pipe dreams and lame excuses they were floating.

    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666
  180. @Jack D

    As a matter of fact, they counted everyone with “severe symptoms” whether or not they were coronavirus positive too.

    Great. So what are the numbers? My whole point was that tabulating and comparing those numbers would be necessary to determine the actual health effects of coronavirus.

    But even if they hadn’t, then at worst we don’t know how many people with non-Covid “severe symptoms” existed in EITHER arm.

    Exactly. My whole point was that without comparing those numbers, you can’t know which “severe symptoms” were caused by covid, and which weren’t.

    However you would expect a roughly equal # (X) and whatever that number is, the placebo arm would have 11+X severe cases and the vaccine arm would have X severe cases.

    Exactly. That’s what I told Telling. You need to compare the numbers in both arms, regardless of covid status, not just point to the 11 incidents of “severe symptoms” in the placebo arm and say: “see, covid really is dangerous.” Again, I’d love to see the actual numbers if you’d be willing to share.

    So it is by no means circular

    The “it,” you are referring to is the definition of “severe covid case.” In a lawyerly sense, it may not be circular because if you parse their wording with a skeptical eye (as I did), they aren’t actually making the claim that covid caused the reported incidents of “severe symptoms.” But if you interpret it as Telling did (and as almost any casual reader would), the definition includes a built-in assumption that covid was indeed the cause of all such “severe symptoms.”

    Using an assumption that covid caused certain health effects to prove that covid causes those same health effects is classic question begging, circular reasoning, whatever you want to call it. Point is: it’s wrong.

    and your conclusion is false.

    My “conclusion” was that the 11 reported incidents of “severe symptoms” in the placebo arm are not evidence that covid causes severe symptoms, or that the vaccine prevents them. That conclusion is 100% true. In fact, everything you’ve said actually agrees with what I said.

    So let’s just look at the raw data on the incidence of severe symptoms in both arms (as I said would be the “apples-to-apples” comparison). I’d love to see it if you’ve extracted it from the study.

    • Replies: @utu
  181. @HA

    Even if those claiming that this year’s death toll is no worse than that of a typical year all things considered, they’re just claiming the social distancing, masks, lockdowns, etc. did what they were supposed to do . . .

    Just like the Bear Patrol.

    • Replies: @HA
    , @utu
  182. @Steve Sailer

    Since then, not as bad, but it’s getting worse lately.

    Interesting. Deaths are increasing during flu season. But wait . . . statistics show that there are no flu deaths this year. Damn. Just when we cure flu, coronavirus spikes and causes the same number of deaths.

    • Replies: @Jack D
  183. Jack D says:
    @Seneca44

    Yes it is consistent because the FDA wants to wait at least 60 days from the date of last injection to see whether any reports of delayed side effects come in. While there are some here who won’t be happy until this novel vaccine has been safely used for years or decades (“it might give you cancer 20 years from now”) the FDA knows that the vast majority of vaccine side effects occur no more than 30-45 days after injection and they thru in a couple of weeks extra just to be sure.

    I think this is a fair balancing of emergency vs risk. If they gave EUA too soon, millions of people got the shot and then 2 months from now a whole bunch had side effects, this would not be a good thing. Remember that as soon as they pull the trigger on this, MILLIONS of people are going to be vaccinated right away, within days. There is not going to be a gradual rollout where the first recipients are in effect a continuation of the trial. This is not the kind of drug that you should approve in haste and regret at leisure.

    • Thanks: Seneca44
  184. Jack D says:
    @Hypnotoad666

    I realize that you are being facetious, but there are a number of possible explanations for the lack of a flu season this year, aside from the possibility that all flu deaths are now being coded as covid deaths or that covid only kills people who were going to die of the flu this year anyway. One of those is that, while the lockdowns, mask wearing, etc. have not been sufficient to stop the Covid virus from circulating, they are sufficient to prevent the spread of the flu.

    We might not have found the cure for the flu but we may have discovered a way to keep it from circulating. In many Asian countries it’s customary to wear masks during flu season so you don’t go around inadvertently killing your elderly neighbors. It would be nice if we continued to do this in America, but I doubt that we will because many Americans consider wearing a mask a grave infringement on their God-given right to fatally infect their neighbors.

    • Replies: @utu
  185. HA says:
    @Hypnotoad666

    “Just like the Bear Patrol.”

    No, I addressed that. If bear maulings go up each time the hours of the Bear Patrol are reduced — even if it is during a time of year when denialists assure us bears are absent, and even though they claim that bears are already so satiated with human flesh that the remaining human herd is immune to their hunger pangs — then the Bear Patrol is definitely doing something right.

    There were plenty of human guinea pigs willing to forego masks and social distancing so as to give the denialists’ arguments and false assurances a chance and the consequent increases in the death tolls speak for themselves.

    Then again, you’re the twit who thinks that your complete and utter cluelessness about a statistical method is proof-positive that someone is trying to put one over on you. As in:

    I have no clue what any of that means, but I’m inclined to…take this obscurity as prima facie evidence of more statistical f&@kery.

    That’s something you might consider having engraved on your tombstone, given as it’s clearly turning out to be your personal mission statement.

    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666
  186. there are a number of possible explanations for the lack of a flu season this year, aside from the possibility that all flu deaths are now being coded as covid deaths or that covid only kills people who were going to die of the flu this year anyway. One of those is that, while the lockdowns, mask wearing, etc. have not been sufficient to stop the Covid virus from circulating, they are sufficient to prevent the spread of the flu.

    Maybe the lockdowns have caused the decline in flu deaths in 2020. And maybe the lockdowns have also caused the increase in excess deaths for 2020. I’d love to see rigorous scientific tests of both hypotheses.

    However, we are apparently willing to spend trillions to spastically respond to a “crisis,” without spending a few shekels to figure out if it really is a crisis in the first place. Go figure.

  187. @HA

    the consequent increases in the death tolls speak for themselves.

    If they do speak for themselves, all they are saying is : “meh.” https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm#F1_down.

    There is no obvious correlation between the very minor (and decreasing) number of excess deaths and lockdowns and masks. Even if there had been a correlation, you have perhaps heard of the concept that “correlation does not equal causation.” And even if you wanted to pretend that correlation equals causation, it still appears that it is the lockdowns that correlate with excess deaths. In Europe, for example, the countries that never locked down (Norway, Sweden and Denmark) have zero excess deaths. https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

    P.S., being “inclined to take something as prima facie evidence” is far different from accepting it as “proof-positive.”

    P.P.S., Science says masks are ineffective. https://www.acponline.org/acp-newsroom/denmark-trial-measures-effectiveness-of-adding-a-mask-recommendation-to-other-public-health-measures

    P.P.P.S. I’ll die someday, but it won’t be this lame-ass cold virus that will kill me.

    • Replies: @HA
  188. HA says:
    @Hypnotoad666

    “There is no obvious correlation between the very minor (and decreasing) number of excess deaths and lockdowns and masks.”

    Yeah, that’s why excess deaths tanked during summer just like the truthers predicted, and then tanked again once the school year began. Just a steep slope down. And that’s why there was absolutely no correlation between lockdown severity and per-capita-COVID deaths in the case of, say, Sweden and its neighbors.

    Oh wait, exactly none of that is true. Bear Patrol wins again.

  189. utu says:
    @Hypnotoad666

    My “conclusion” was that the 11 reported incidents of “severe symptoms” in the placebo arm are not evidence that covid causes severe symptoms, or that the vaccine prevents them. That conclusion is 100% true.

    I thought that it was pretty well established as a fact that ‘covid causes severe symptoms’ long before any vaccine trial began. The vaccine trials were not conducted to verify this fact but to find out how many less severe symptoms there are among the vaccinated.

    So your objection is based on the possibility that those 11 were particularly susceptible and there was no similar group with similar susceptibilities among the vaccinated, correct?

    In the Sci-Fi world if we had a cloning technology and a time machine technology we would create twin embryos and send them back in time to grow and develop in the same environments and then bring them back with the same time machine as grown ups and then separate them for placebo and vaccination groups. If we found that 11 placebo twins got severe symptoms while their 11 twins who were vaccinated did not, you would be satisfied, right?

    We are not living in the Sci-Fi world but we have to make our decision based on data we have. The data are telling us that in the group of 15,000 vaccinated there is very high probability that there are at least 11 individuals who are very similar to those 11 individuals in the placebo group who got severe symptoms. This is pretty much the same what you get with cloning and time machine in your Sci-Fi world.

    Tell us how scrupulous are you about checking on claims that humidifiers, vitamin D, or HCQ or zinc or nicotine can prevent covid symptoms before you start ordering on internet humidifiers, vitamin D, HCQ, zinc and nicotine patches? You won’t wait for the Sci-Fi study results, right?

    • Thanks: That Would Be Telling
    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666
  190. utu says:
    @Hypnotoad666

    You are a confused troll that uses the same worn out ‘gotcha you’ arguments that are really semantic + ontological in nature and have no application to what is going around you.

    Finland and Norway succeeded keeping ‘bears’ in check while Sweden that has 10 times higher deaths from ‘bear’ attacks per capita than Finland and Norway apparently did not.

    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666
  191. utu says:
    @Jack D

    “We might not have found the cure for the flu but we may have discovered a way to keep it from circulating.”

    – I am pretty sure that Big Pharma with CDC and WHO kept us away from the discovery that masks and social distancing actually can stop the epidemic of flu since when they decided that the only proper regimen in the West of fighting flu is to be via medications and vaccines.

    It is interesting that all those anti-vaxxers and Big Pharma skeptics are also fighting tooth and nail against masking, social distancing and lockdowns. Big Pharma loves them but no checks in mail for the useful idiots as they do it for free except for the ones who don’t do it for free. Mike Whitney’s demagoguery just published by Ron Unz is solely based on the write-up by an anti-vaxxer and anti-mask group from UK and on Russia Today’s article poo-pooing mRNA vaccines because it happen that Russian does not have one.

    https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/heres-why-you-should-skip-the-covid-vaccine/#comment-4313800
    “I really do not see what purpose does it serve to give a greater platform to Mike Whitney so he can broadcast his shameless demagoguery. All his articles on covid were wrong. He contributed to confusion and reinforced the feeble minded in their deranged beliefs that in general weakened the ability of our society to respond effectively to the pandemic. You are a part of the problem, Ron Unz. On one hand you get all ecstatic about how great China’s response to covid was but on the other hand you contribute to everything what is wrong with the response in America. Do you wish America ill?”

  192. @utu

    So your objection is based on the possibility that those 11 were particularly susceptible and there was no similar group with similar susceptibilities among the vaccinated, correct?

    That’s not quite it.

    The objection is that the “severe symptoms” being measured are very general and have many potential confounding causes. (They are symptoms like especially high heart rates, trouble breathing, renal failure, any admission to the ICU). Thus, there will always be a baseline percentage of people experiencing those symptoms over time in any random sample.

    Under the Pfizer protocol definition, a “severe covid case” is registered any time a subject experiences a positive test for covid plus “at least one” of the general severe symptoms. This definition is therefore triggered anytime a positive test for covid randomly overlaps with a positive result for one of these general symptoms. If the vaccine is very effective, this will automatically cause more “severe covid cases” to occur in the placebo arm even if covid has not causes any of the symptoms.

    For example, suppose that, in the absence of covid, 10% of people would normally experience one or more “severe” health symptoms over the course of the trial. And suppose there is also an independent 10% chance of catching covid if you are unvaccinated. In that case, a placebo group of 1,000 would be expected to have 100 incidences of general “severe” symptoms (1,000 x 10%), and also 100 incidences of covid (1,000 x 10%). And ten individuals would be randomly expected to have both independent characteristics (1,000 x 10% x 10% = 10). Thus, the protocol arm by pure random chance would have an expected 1% “severe covide case rate” (10/1,000 = 1%), even if covid is utterly harmless and causes no symptoms at all.

    Meanwhile, assume the vaccine is 100% effective in preventing the (harmless) infection by covid. In that case, the vaccine arm will still have have 100 incidences of “severe” symptoms (1,000 x 10%), but will have zero incidences of covid itself. Thus, it will also have zero “severe covid cases”(1,000 x 10% x 0% = 0).

    In this scenario, the pharma company can crow that its vaccine is “100% effective” in preventing “severe covid cases.” And by its own definition of that term, it will be technically correct. But both arms of the study still have 100 incidents of “severe” symptoms. So, in reality, the vaccine is actually identical to the placebo in real outcomes.

    I thought that it was pretty well established as a fact that ‘covid causes severe symptoms’

    It’s widely “accepted” or “assumed” as fact, but no one to my knowledge has every attempted to do any type of scientific study to actually “prove” it is a fact.

    The vaccine trials were not conducted to verify this fact but to find out how many less severe symptoms there are among the vaccinated.

    True. But if you compare the raw occurrence of “severe” symptoms in both groups, you should be able to infer any causal relationship between being covid positive and experiencing “severe” symptoms.

    All the pharma companies have to do is release their raw data, and all will be revealed. (The only problem is that the more rare and benign that covid actually is, the larger the sample size you would need to get a statistically meaningful measure of any causal relationship between the two variables).

    • Replies: @utu
  193. @utu

    You are a confused troll that uses the same worn out ‘gotcha you’ arguments that are really semantic + ontological in nature and have no application to what is going around you.

    No, you are a dope who doesn’t understand that you can’t think logically without defining your terms correctly. Go back to listening to NPR, they will tell you stuff that you can agree with without having to think too hard.

  194. utu says:
    @Hypnotoad666

    What is the probability to have n=11 cases of severe symptoms in population A (N=15,000) and n=0 cases in population B (N=15,00) providing that populations were (1) randomly drawn from the population A+B (N=30,000) and (2) both populations were subjected to the same external conditions before the cases n=11 and n=0 were identified?

    (1) An urn contains 29,989 white balls and 11 black balls. You draw balls randomly one by one and assign to them consecutive integer numbers 1, 2,…, 30,000. What is the probability that all black balls have an odd number?

    (2) Two halves of a circle are pained: one black and the other white. You shoot 11 pellets randomly at the circle. What is the probability that all 11 pellets end up on the black half?

    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666
  195. What is the probability to have n=11 cases of severe symptoms in population A (N=15,000) and n=0 cases in population B (N=15,00) providing that populations were (1) randomly drawn from the population A+B (N=30,000) and (2) both populations were subjected to the same external conditions before the cases n=11 and n=0 were identified?

    First, you would have to define your term “severe symptoms.” If “severe symptoms” is defined to include a corona infection and you have vaccinated population B against coronavirus but have not vaccinated population A, then you have obviously violated the condition that “both populations were subjected to the same external conditions before the cases n=11 and n=0 were identified.”

  196. @utu

    Utu — Here’s one for you:

    Premises

    1. Assume that, at any given time, there is a 10% chance that a randomly selected member of the U.S. population has had a covid infection within the prior 60 days.

    2. Assume that 2.8 million Americans will die of all causes during 2020.

    3. Assume that the CDC defines “Covid Deaths” as “all deaths of persons who had a covid infection within the prior 60 days.”

    4. Assume that having a covid infection has zero effect on the odds of dying.

    Conclusions

    How many CDC-defined “Covid Deaths” would we expect during 2020?

    How would the number of CDC-defined “Covid Deaths” change if premise #4 were changed to say that having a covid infection within the prior 60 days increased your chance of dying by 50%?

    How useful is the CDC definition of “Covid Deaths” as a measure of how many people have been supposedly killed by covid? Or what we should do about it?

Comments are closed.

Subscribe to All Steve Sailer Comments via RSS