The Unz Review: An Alternative Media Selection
A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media
 TeasersiSteve Blog
A Case Study from a Chinese Restaurant
🔊 Listen RSS
Email This Page to Someone

 Remember My Information



=>

Bookmark Toggle AllToCAdd to LibraryRemove from Library • BShow CommentNext New CommentNext New ReplyRead More
ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
AgreeDisagreeThanksLOLTroll
These buttons register your public Agreement, Disagreement, Thanks, LOL, or Troll with the selected comment. They are ONLY available to recent, frequent commenters who have saved their Name+Email using the 'Remember My Information' checkbox, and may also ONLY be used three times during any eight hour period.
Ignore Commenter Follow Commenter
Search Text Case Sensitive  Exact Words  Include Comments
List of Bookmarks

Here’s a diagram from a new Chinese paper illustrating the results of contact tracing from one lunch in a restaurant in a Chinese city (not Wuhan, but one that had very few cases before this event) on January 24.

A 10 person family that had fled Wuhan sat at Table A. Diner A1 (red and yellow) was hospitalized later that day with coronavirus. Four other members of the family (in red) later tested as infected, although they could have been infected

An airconditioner in the upper right blew air from right to left. Downwind at Table B, three out of four patrons were subsequently infected. Upwind in the general direction that A1 was facing, two of seven were infected at Table C. Both parties spent roughly an hour near A1.

Nobody was infected at tables E or F, or in the other half of the room (not shown).

The Chinese quarantined all 73 diners in that room, so they feel confident that A1 was the Patient Zero who infected the diners at other tables.

Lessons: it’s somewhat more dangerous to be downwind than upwind, but spread can happen in both directions. Looking at this, I’d probably say you’d want to put people at tables B and F, but it looks hard to get anywhere close to the density of diners that they had back before. The problem with restaurants is you can’t wear masks while eating.

In general, we are going to need a lot more case studies like this.

 
Hide 180 CommentsLeave a Comment
Commenters to Ignore...to FollowEndorsed Only
Trim Comments?
  1. The Chinese quarantined all 73 diners in that room”- This is how to do it. Trace all contacts with the infected and locate them up.

    • Agree: Blinky Bill
    • LOL: Kyle
    • Replies: @Inverness
    On the list of things China's going to be better at than us: locating lots of people, and locking them up.
    , @dearieme
    How do you propose to deal with people who were shedding virus before they showed any symptoms, or indeed were shedding virus and never did show any symptoms? I doubt that anything much can be done about the latter, who may be about 50% of those infected. About the former; who the devil knows who he shared a bus with five days earlier? Who can remember exactly which bus he caught? Who else who might have been aboard a candidate bus can remember? "Test and quarantine" might well be helpful. It might delay problems by a useful amount. But otherwise it's a panacea, in the ironic sense of that term.

    It seems to me that the successful nations - S Korea, Taiwan, Singapore (at least until a few days ago) - used a powerful clue; they started with people who had just arrived from China and specifically from Wuhan. (Observe: those are unwoke countries and presumably give not a stuff about bogus accusations of racism.)

    But as the example of Singapore may show - and the resurgence of cases in China may show - there may be no stopping this ruddy thing for long.

    It might be wise to apply some calm, critical thought to how best to protect the people who are unusually vulnerable. It might be wise to try to buy time by practising social distancing, hand-washing, quarantining, and whatnot. But unless someone stumbles across a successful treatment, or a useful vaccine is developed, it might be wise to accept that long term we are in the soup. Just like the bats.

    , @TomSchmidt
    The Contact tracing ship sailed in the USA a long time ago. Maybe with the enormously expensive and disruptive lockdown we have arrived at the point that it can again be pursued. Even in NYC in pretty short order.

    Of course, even if we extinguish the virus in the USA entirely (and I doubt that, though universal masking ought to get us closer to there), we will remain vulnerable to any place in the world that it still exists. If we do manage to extinguish it, then we will need the contact tracers for future inmigrants who have it.
    , @Louis Renault
    Yep, we need a way to track everyone. I reccommend the "undocumented" people here first, they have had the lowest access to health care for the longest time. Once we isolate them - for their own safety - we can turn them over to ICE to send them home. Don't tell the democrats though, they need the votes. Don't tell the RINOs, they need the cheap labor. Good luck!
    , @moshe
    Coming soon to a "free" country near you!
  2. For about a month in grade school, farting was all the rage. I knew downwind is worse than upwind then. How many studies do we need?

    • LOL: sayless
  3. In general, we are going to need a lot more case studies like this.

    No. In general, we are going to have to stop freaking out about this.

    The same diagram could probably apply for a cold, another flu, or when somebody farts. And the consequences would be about the same.

    The mortality rate is low, and what we need is a cost-benefit analysis of how we are destroying our world for this. Why don’t we see that here?

    • Replies: @Jack D
    Wuhan Virus is (for the time being, until we achieve herd immunity) significantly worse than the flu . If it is possible thru contact tracing to isolate the disease and have it die off, that's the preferred option. Many other contagious diseases have been stopped in their tracks this way. It is a standard public health measure that has been practiced for over a century. Remember Typhoid Mary? It has been met with great success in NZ and in S. Korea.

    The problem is that we waited far too long and so the stuff is out in "the community". Once a disease is in the community contact tracing becomes difficult or impossible, especially in such a liberty loving/mobile/disorganized country such as the US. Good luck doing contact tracing on mentally ill homeless people.
    , @e
    So, did the tracing establish that the infected guy sneezed? Once. A lot? Coughed? Once, a lot? Or are we to assume he just spread the virus by breathing?
    , @Michael S
    A cost-benefit analysis in every single post about COVID-19 isn't "what we need", it's what you want in order to feel better about your inability to cope with temporary lifestyle changes and incessant demands that all controls be immediately lifted so you can go return to your routine of hollow overconsumption fueled by Chinese slave labor. Morbidly obese people cry about the same theoretical-but-not-actual cost-benefit analysis when they're told they need to lose weight to even be able to get life-saving surgery. Cut down on French fries and Pepsi? The cure is worse than the disease! It's the same damn thing.

    To you and to others like you, even getting the information needed to do a cost-benefit analysis requires a cost-benefit analysis. Bro, you need a CBA for that CBA! It's no different from the usual leftist tactic of derailing discussions and invoking bureaucracy to impede any serious efforts to solve the problem. And like the typical SJW, you couch your arguments in rhetoric that is supposed to sound like it's serving the common good ("destroying our world!") but doesn't represent the opinions or beliefs of most of those you claim to represent.

    People aren't going to go to work if they perceive a significant risk of dying from this thing, and they definitely aren't going to go to work if they're sick - nor should they. If you actually understood the concept of a cost-benefit analysis, as opposed to merely using the phrase as a tool to bludgeon anyone who thinks the disease should be contained, you'd realize that most of the "cost" comes from individuals and families making rational decisions to protect themselves and their families, not the hamfisted government lockdowns that aren't even being enforced and certainly not the scientific studies that useful people are trying to do.
    , @MBlanc46
    Some of us do, Buzz, but we’re not the sort of folks who can make things happen.
  4. Other than that, how was the food?

    • Replies: @B36
    And what did the fortune cookies say?
    , @Farenheit
    Did they integrated the Bat Soup variable into the equation? How many had Kung Pow Pangolin?
    , @nsa
    "Other than that, how was the food?"
    The Bat Wonton was delightful, the Kung Pao Rat splendid, and the Peking Roasted Cat exceptional.
  5. anon[377] • Disclaimer says:

    The focus of this incident is on the direction of the “wind,” meaning that the virus is carried through the air. A month ago everyone was focused on transmission by physical contact: “masks are useless, but whatever you do, don’t touch your face!”

    Turns out that was a lot of hogwash and probably made the pandemic worse.

    Walls don’t work. Masks don’t work. What else “doesn’t work” that obviously does? I suppose immigration restriction doesn’t work (they seem to work in Israel) because replacement level immigration is “inevitable.” Or is it “not happening?” I forget. It’s either inevitable or not happening, and they keep going back and forth depending on their audience. Either way, they both converge on one policy: don’t do anything to limit immigration, because it’s both “inevitable as the tides” and “not happening.”

    • Replies: @Kyle
    I’m not saying masks are useless, they’re definitely effective. But washing your hands, not picking your nose, and not touching your face is at the very least as important as wearing a mask. Viruses are passed on though bodily fluids. Saliva, mucus, blood, urine & waste. If somebody else gets that on their hands, then touches something that you touch, then you transfer it to your eyes nose or mouth, then you can get it.
    , @anonymous

    The focus of this incident is on the direction of the “wind,” meaning that the virus is carried through the air. A month ago everyone was focused on transmission by physical contact: “masks are useless, but whatever you do, don’t touch your face!”

    Turns out that was a lot of hogwash and probably made the pandemic worse.
     
    Pandemics allow for entrepreneurial opportunities that didn't exist before.
    Quit complaining, put your entrepreneurial hat on, and play to win, old sport!

    I was just over at Costco, and it's getting pretty dicey over there:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QcbR1J_4ICg
  6. I believe this was how Legionnaire’s Disease was spread.

    • Replies: @Known Fact
    This probably should be taken with a grain of salt (or for this particular post some MSG), but I read one fascinating comment drawing a slew of superficial comparisons between COVID and Legionnaire's -- e.g. how it spreads and who it kills
  7. The problem is that when you infect someone at a Chinese restaurant, you feel like doing it again an hour later.

    • Replies: @e
    Thanks. That's the first time I've laughed hard at a comment on this subject in a few days. I needed that.
  8. I wonder if people have developed a permanent innate aversion to eating in relatively small and crowded, but convivial, spaces indoors. Perhaps not, and things will go back to normal after all this. But if they have, that will change the economics of the restaurant business.

    • Agree: Sean, Pincher Martin
    • Replies: @Jim Bob Lassiter
    The economics of the restaurant business are by nature shaky in the best of economic and epidemiological times. The economics of the restaurant business from 2006 up to Covid 19 can only be described like the economics of so many other businesses-- a house of cards.

    Very little will ever be the same.
    , @AnotherDad
    No loss.

    Personal taste, i know. But Americans waste a huge amount of money "going out"--especially for a nation of people that on average have next to no savings.

    We almost never go out and have zero desire to do so. We have our friends and family over. Winter--fire up the fireplace. Nice weather--deck/patio.

    -- the company is better; you can listen and talk to your friends without the din from all the nitwits
    -- the food--if AnotherMom is cooking--is better; but even with simple fare, plenty good enough
    -- the seating is more comfortable; i've got those $17 plastic aidrondacks from HomeDepot with lumber support (and some cushions for those who like 'em).
    -- you can get up and move around as you like; talk to this person, then some other person
    -- you want another cold beer or margarita or glass of wine or whatever ... just go grab it--without getting robbed
    -- and when the tank is full ... the bathroom is nicer

    Blow off this twitchy nonsense and just invite your neighbors, friends, family over and enjoy life. Everything about it is better than "going out".
    , @Reg Cæsar

    I wonder if people have developed a permanent innate aversion to eating in relatively small and crowded, but convivial, spaces indoors. Perhaps not, and things will go back to normal after all this. But if they have, that will change the economics of the restaurant business.
     
    The Spanish flu was followed by a decade and a half of crowded speakeasies. Memories are short!
  9. To get it upwind of him I think he must have coughed at least once. Public coughing is going to be have to be outlawed before shops, bars and restaurants can reopen. Even outdoors coughing is going to have to be forbidden. Spitting too. Laughter is a difficult one

    • Replies: @Inverness
    Flying Circus. Never ceases to amaze, what they were capable of with a threadbare budget and a few days' weekly schedule.
    , @anon
    Did they really get it "upwind", or did the A/C unit intake suck it up downwind and then recirculate it immediately in front of their table?
  10. Fake Science
    The coastal regions of the US are exactly the same, right? Peas in a pod, yes?
    Sean Hannity was talking about the plague very early and had on his show experts, some of whom were WHO-aligned mainstream experts who downplayed the risk. Fake academics have published a lying and defamatory paper seeking to prove that Fox News (but not, say, the WHO, or Nancy Pelosi, or Michael Cuomo) is legally responsible for killing people by misinforming the public, from times when Fox was the only mainstream source informing the public.
    Fake science bonus: their methodology assumes that the east and west coasts are exactly the same in every respect and that any difference in covid effects between them is the fault of Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson (and, I can only assume, Vladimir Putin).
    https://bfi.uchicago.edu/working-paper/2020-44/

  11. It doesn’t make sense that airflow created those results. There were eight restaurant employees. They didn’t get sick, but that doesn’t mean they didn’t transmit the virus from one customer to another. Maybe they are asymptomatic carriers. Or maybe it’s the bathroom.

    But I can’t see any reasonable person looking at the diagram and thinking hey, it’s the air conditioner!

    • Replies: @PiltdownMan
    One of the striking aspects of office culture in Asia is that almost every office-worker eats out at lunchtime, every working day of the week. I observed it to be a near universal custom in Hong Kong, Tokyo, and Singapore. Nobody eats at their desk. That's a habit that's likely not going to change.

    Another thing that's not going to change is ventilation and airflow in modern buildings. There's only so much you can do about diseases borne by miasmas, so to speak. What is true for a restaurant is equally true for an office, a schoolroom, public transportation, or any place where people congregate for any purpose and stay still for a period of time.
    , @danand

    “It doesn’t make sense that airflow created those results.”
     
    Education realist, I don’t know if the airflow was a significant contributing factor or not. Does seem like a fair possibility that the known infected diner at table A was hacking; as he soon after distributing SARS went to the hospital.

    What I can almost guarantee is that “communal sharing” of food was occurring. That is, the diners at each table we’re picking food off common plates with their individual utensils/chopsticks (the same utensils they were placing their mouths). This is common practice in China, even what I would call, for lack of a better term, “good manners”. Anyone who has dined in China knows this.

    , @David
    In the image, there are fourteen people to the right of the suspected source and four of them got the virus. There are six to the left (if only slightly), and five of them got infected. I'm ignoring tables E and F. Not conclusive but not unreasonable to suspect the AC is behind that distinct pattern.
  12. Does this mean the Indians are screwed?

    • Replies: @PiltdownMan
    Air conditioning is not the norm in India, which is a poor country. Homes with electricity usually have electric ceiling fans, which are worse.

    But that's the issue with identifying and singling out this particular mode of transmission. Indoor spaces need air flow, otherwise they are stiflingly still and uncomfortable to be in. It seems to me there's not much you can do about it.

    , @Escher
    What do Indians have to do with this ad?
  13. Bullets from UnHerd:

    UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based

    The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only

    This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”

    The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better

    The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact

    The paper was very much too pessimistic

    Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway

    The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown

    The results will eventually be similar for all countries

    Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.

    The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%

    At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

    • Replies: @Andy
    Sweden has done quite badly in comparison to its neighbors Denmark, Norway and Finland. Look at the deaths per capita (175 vs 64, 34 and 25). The cases per capita also look bad but less so since the Swedes tried to hid the disease by doing few tests.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    , @leterip
    Very good podcast. Very highly recommended. Sweden has the secret sauce. Which is focusing on on isolating/protecting the vulnerable and let everybody else get sick and therefore not unduly damage the economy. One part, perhaps most significant, mentioned in the video is how much focus Sweden has on keeping nursing homes safe. There is new Massachusetts data that their nursing homes are astoundingly infected and account for well over 50% of Covid deaths.

    https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-dashboard-april-20-2020/download
  14. Diner A1 (red and yellow) was hospitalized later that day with coronavirus.

    It would be interesting to know how symptomatic he was, several hours before being sick enough to require admission to a hospital. It is likely he was ill, perhaps coughing at the time of the meal.

    Keep ill people home, have them re-hydrate with chicken soup at home, rather than at the restaurant, maybe the important lesson learned.

  15. The airflow goes in two opposite directions with wall air conditioners — the cool air blows out on top, but the grid below sucks in the hot air to recirculate it.

    So those in the line of such an air conditioner are both upwind and downwind from each other.

    • Agree: danand
    • Thanks: Ozymandias
    • Replies: @Jack D
    Actually in split systems (what you usually see in China) it' s usually upside down from this arrangement because they are intended to be mounted high on a wall - they suck warm air from the top and blow cold air out the bottom. But your point remains the same.
    , @Joseph Farnsworth
    Finally some basic knowledge of commercial and residential AC systems where there is typically RECIRCULATION of air, supply air going one way, return air going the other! Unless you have something like a Class 100 clean bench where filtered air goes in one direction only with uniform velocity (plug flow) to convey particles away from a work surface. So the result here in the crowded restaurant is for the recirculating air to stir the aerosols in a line in front of the AC unit. Note the lack of COVID cases in the adjacent tables not in front of the AC unit.
  16. • Replies: @ATate
    The difference? The poor downtrodden black bodies acquiesced immediately and without incident. Nary a peep was heard but those racist cops just kicked them and beat them down.

    Those Hasidic fellas got super violent for sure. But the cops let them off because....YT (just don’t ask the Jews if they’re white).

    Nailed it!
    , @moshe
    You don't seem like a bad guy but you did catch a bad case of Da Jooz. I doubt there's any rememdy for someone whose been on the missionizing end of this for so long but maybe a new diagram from Chinese Resteraunts can illuminate fir you where the germs are coming from.

    Good luck, I'm sorry that you're sick and wish you a speedy recovery.
    , @Reg Cæsar

    Whats the difference here?
     
    Whose lives Mayor DeBlasio thinks are worth saving.
    , @Jack D
    If you find yourself in agreement with a someone named Tariq Nasheed you should question whether perhaps you might be wrong.
  17. @education realist
    It doesn't make sense that airflow created those results. There were eight restaurant employees. They didn't get sick, but that doesn't mean they didn't transmit the virus from one customer to another. Maybe they are asymptomatic carriers. Or maybe it's the bathroom.

    But I can't see any reasonable person looking at the diagram and thinking hey, it's the air conditioner!

    One of the striking aspects of office culture in Asia is that almost every office-worker eats out at lunchtime, every working day of the week. I observed it to be a near universal custom in Hong Kong, Tokyo, and Singapore. Nobody eats at their desk. That’s a habit that’s likely not going to change.

    Another thing that’s not going to change is ventilation and airflow in modern buildings. There’s only so much you can do about diseases borne by miasmas, so to speak. What is true for a restaurant is equally true for an office, a schoolroom, public transportation, or any place where people congregate for any purpose and stay still for a period of time.

    • Replies: @Known Fact
    I'd be wary of high-rise elevators right now as well
  18. Singapore has 9,125 cases and 11 deaths. I’m going to keep repeating that until everyone calms down.

  19. OT: Strange periodic pattern in Swedish daily deaths

    The minima happen on weekends around Saturdays or Sundays or Mondays? How does this periodicity can be explained?

    (1) Are people who die on weekends more likely to get assigned to the “death with virus” rather than to the “death of virus” category? Why?

    (2) What if on weekends they do the push down of stats to keep the deaths rate low to fulfill the assurance of their Chief Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell (*) that they wills slash the death rate to lower than seasonal flu?

    (3) Or is it possible there are less deaths on weekends? Perhaps they do not have the chief physician who decides whose plug to pull so some people live few days longer until the chief physician returns from his weekend and do his job of pulling the plug?

    (*) Sweden’s Chief Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell
    https://archive.fo/seBhv#selection-981.0-981.230
    April 3
    The Swedes believe that changing how the figures are reported will cut the number of people dying from coronavirus by as much as four fifths, and slash the death rate to well below 1 per cent, perhaps even lower than seasonal flu

    For Sweden the reputation stake is so high that I won’t be surprised that they are cooking the books. The pressure to keep down the death rates must be tremendous.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    It's not uncommon in places in the U.S. for fewer deaths to be reported on Mondays, which is probably due to bureaucrats having Sunday off.
    , @AnotherDad
    The Swedish experiment has been exceedingly ho-hum.

    The cyclic aspect is just bureaucracy, getting deaths reported during office hours.

    Overall Sweden has pretty much tracked the US experience. Same deaths per thousand. With actually fewer "cases"--but that's likely just less testing. Quite a bit worse than their Scandi neighbors.

    https://coronavirusgraphs.com/?c=ddm&y=linear&t=line&f=0&ct=&co=2,67,221

    If Sweden is held up by lockdown opponents, i don't think it makes the case they hope. The government hasn't bossed people around as much. But people make their own decisions to be more circumspect.

    If your concern is "tyranny!"--and some of the abject stupidity we've had here, like closing parks and beaches--then fine. (And i agree.)

    But if it's the claim that everything would be just fine if the politicians hadn't started preening? Then no. People in Sweden made their own decisions to dial it back. So it is not "life goes on".

    ~~

    The nation that looks good on this whole thing is Czechia where they--wisely--masked up. They are doing much better than their Western neighbors and their curve really has been squashed. (A respiratory disease and masks help? Who could imagine that?)

    Patriotic Hungary and Poland are doing well too, but they had a much later start, so it's hard to make a direct comparison.
  20. @The Alarmist
    Does this mean the Indians are screwed?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4BQ5BwrOFc

    Air conditioning is not the norm in India, which is a poor country. Homes with electricity usually have electric ceiling fans, which are worse.

    But that’s the issue with identifying and singling out this particular mode of transmission. Indoor spaces need air flow, otherwise they are stiflingly still and uncomfortable to be in. It seems to me there’s not much you can do about it.

    • Replies: @Inverness
    Those mini-splits are increasingly common in the third world, even in places where electric service is sporadic.

    They're all over Kolkata now, in Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Africa. I've asked shop owners and it turns out they cost only about $350 to $400 installed, which is a lot of money to them but it can mean the difference between having customers and not having customers. Some are leased which makes them more affordable.

    They cost four or five times that amount in the USA.

    , @Jim Bob Lassiter
    While the A/C directional airflow/floorplan diagram is instructive, it is important to note that there are eddies and nuances to airflow patterns within a room due to multiple variables.
  21. @utu
    "The Chinese quarantined all 73 diners in that room"- This is how to do it. Trace all contacts with the infected and locate them up.

    On the list of things China’s going to be better at than us: locating lots of people, and locking them up.

  22. @education realist
    It doesn't make sense that airflow created those results. There were eight restaurant employees. They didn't get sick, but that doesn't mean they didn't transmit the virus from one customer to another. Maybe they are asymptomatic carriers. Or maybe it's the bathroom.

    But I can't see any reasonable person looking at the diagram and thinking hey, it's the air conditioner!

    “It doesn’t make sense that airflow created those results.”

    Education realist, I don’t know if the airflow was a significant contributing factor or not. Does seem like a fair possibility that the known infected diner at table A was hacking; as he soon after distributing SARS went to the hospital.

    What I can almost guarantee is that “communal sharing” of food was occurring. That is, the diners at each table we’re picking food off common plates with their individual utensils/chopsticks (the same utensils they were placing their mouths). This is common practice in China, even what I would call, for lack of a better term, “good manners”. Anyone who has dined in China knows this.

    • Replies: @PiltdownMan
    "Hot pot" restaurant meals, in while diners dangle their food in a communal bowl of broth to cook it, are very popular in Asia. There was a confirmed case of transmission from a hot pot meal in Hong Kong, which caused the shares of hotpot restaurant companies to slide.

    https://haiguitalk.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/e781abe99485-e59083e781abe994851.jpg

    https://www.dimsumdaily.hk/hotpot-stocks-slide-after-hong-kong-family-confirmed-to-have-coronavirus/

    , @Steve Sailer
    But 5 of 11 people at other tables were also infected.

    That's what's really scary for the restaurant business. Lots of people aren't going to go back to restaurants if they fear getting infected by some stranger at a different table.

  23. @Sean
    To get it upwind of him I think he must have coughed at least once. Public coughing is going to be have to be outlawed before shops, bars and restaurants can reopen. Even outdoors coughing is going to have to be forbidden. Spitting too. Laughter is a difficult one

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGbe5qy5274

    Flying Circus. Never ceases to amaze, what they were capable of with a threadbare budget and a few days’ weekly schedule.

    • Replies: @Ganderson
    Still amusing after all these years....
  24. @PiltdownMan
    Air conditioning is not the norm in India, which is a poor country. Homes with electricity usually have electric ceiling fans, which are worse.

    But that's the issue with identifying and singling out this particular mode of transmission. Indoor spaces need air flow, otherwise they are stiflingly still and uncomfortable to be in. It seems to me there's not much you can do about it.

    Those mini-splits are increasingly common in the third world, even in places where electric service is sporadic.

    They’re all over Kolkata now, in Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Africa. I’ve asked shop owners and it turns out they cost only about $350 to $400 installed, which is a lot of money to them but it can mean the difference between having customers and not having customers. Some are leased which makes them more affordable.

    They cost four or five times that amount in the USA.

  25. @danand

    “It doesn’t make sense that airflow created those results.”
     
    Education realist, I don’t know if the airflow was a significant contributing factor or not. Does seem like a fair possibility that the known infected diner at table A was hacking; as he soon after distributing SARS went to the hospital.

    What I can almost guarantee is that “communal sharing” of food was occurring. That is, the diners at each table we’re picking food off common plates with their individual utensils/chopsticks (the same utensils they were placing their mouths). This is common practice in China, even what I would call, for lack of a better term, “good manners”. Anyone who has dined in China knows this.

    “Hot pot” restaurant meals, in while diners dangle their food in a communal bowl of broth to cook it, are very popular in Asia. There was a confirmed case of transmission from a hot pot meal in Hong Kong, which caused the shares of hotpot restaurant companies to slide.

    https://www.dimsumdaily.hk/hotpot-stocks-slide-after-hong-kong-family-confirmed-to-have-coronavirus/

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    But 5 people got infected at other tables.
    , @peterike

    “Hot pot” restaurant meals, in while diners dangle their food in a communal bowl of broth to cook it, are very popular in Asia.

     

    They opened one of those near me (closed now of course). I had no interest to begin with since I don't really care about Chinese food. But when I looked at the menu and saw that it included both live frogs and live eels -- presumably to be tossed into the boiling broth -- I was never going to give them a dime.
    , @Corn
    It’s hard to see how things will shake out but I wonder if this epidemic will change eating habits in any way.

    I’ve heard it suggested that after the shutdowns end buffets will either sharply reduce in number or go the way of the dinosaur. I think I’ll believe it when I see it here in modern Weimerica.

    Going along with Steve’s original post I remember seeing things on Twitter early on in this epidemic that suggested sharing meal tables/food was a particularly virulent way to spread CV.

    Maybe stricter table manners would be a good way to combat CV? Eat off your own plate, no more taking a bite or sharing of others’ food etc?

    I have a cousin on the pushy, overbearing side. When the extended family meets for a meal she’ll often take her fork and spear something off someone else’s plate without asking if she wants to try it. I hate this, I think it’s terrible manners, but my family just thinks I’m being peevish if I gripe about it. Maybe I should just tell her it’s a damn hazard.
  26. A family of 10 in China? Must have been the extended family.

  27. Highlights: Hospitals rather than hospitality were the superspreader institution in Italy, which has the oldest doctors and medical staff in the world. The official advice should be don’t go to hospital unless you have something other that COVID-19. The true infection to death ratio for COVID-19 and the risk related to time spent driving. About NYC it is bad news.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    84% of the U.S. population lives in urban centers with multiple hospitals within 50 miles.

    In the future, instead of having Baptist, Methodist and Catholic hospitals offering almost the exact same services like McDonalds, Wendy's and Burger King within the same city, they should have infectious hospitals and noninfectious hospitals.

    Because of ER's some overlap could exist- as in if a coronary patient was in distress and happened to choose the infectious hospital, he would be treated because there would be no time to transfer him. However if a person came to the noninfectious ER with the sniffles- sorry, go down the road.
  28. Baby Boomers get obsessed over every little detail that affects their lives. So, we get endless discussions like this about a little virus that didn’t lill as many as the flu. Meanwhile, White children are now minority status in their own country.

    If Boomers, as a generation, had any honor, they would save the passion helping future Whites. They would lead the charge to make changes, like getting rid of “civil rights” and Nixon’s affirmative action.

    But that would take moral courage. And the Drama Queen Boomers would rather bleat about how their pathetic ass might be affected by a bug.

    My advice to young White people: You don’t owe these people anything.

    • Replies: @botazefa

    If Boomers, as a generation, had any honor, they would save the passion helping future Whites. They would lead the charge to make changes, like getting rid of “civil rights” and Nixon’s affirmative action.
     
    Support the ERA! It's the stealth way to achieve the results you are advocating.
    , @moshe
    I disagree completely. They don't owe you or your theoretical white great great grandchildren anything.

    They exoected sxience to solve dying for them and now they're told that they may nit even make it to 80. So they use the power that they have (which is a plurality of it) to enforce draconian measures for their own protection.

    Why shouldn't they?

    What the hell do they owe YOU?
    , @Mr. Anon
    Boomers are not covering themselves in glory. I think this will cement the contempt that younger generations have for them and usher in the Boomerdaemmerung.
    , @Anonymous
    When the Boomers hit middle age, Western society freaked out about cholesterol, stress and smoking. Now they've hit old age, it's freaking out over the flu.

    Everything revolves around these people.
  29. @utu
    OT: Strange periodic pattern in Swedish daily deaths

    https://i.ibb.co/5BhnjdM/graph3.png

    The minima happen on weekends around Saturdays or Sundays or Mondays? How does this periodicity can be explained?

    (1) Are people who die on weekends more likely to get assigned to the "death with virus" rather than to the "death of virus" category? Why?

    (2) What if on weekends they do the push down of stats to keep the deaths rate low to fulfill the assurance of their Chief Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell (*) that they wills slash the death rate to lower than seasonal flu?

    (3) Or is it possible there are less deaths on weekends? Perhaps they do not have the chief physician who decides whose plug to pull so some people live few days longer until the chief physician returns from his weekend and do his job of pulling the plug?

    (*) Sweden’s Chief Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell
    https://archive.fo/seBhv#selection-981.0-981.230
    April 3
    The Swedes believe that changing how the figures are reported will cut the number of people dying from coronavirus by as much as four fifths, and slash the death rate to well below 1 per cent, perhaps even lower than seasonal flu

     

    For Sweden the reputation stake is so high that I won't be surprised that they are cooking the books. The pressure to keep down the death rates must be tremendous.

    It’s not uncommon in places in the U.S. for fewer deaths to be reported on Mondays, which is probably due to bureaucrats having Sunday off.

    • Replies: @utu
    Yes, I can see it but I would expect that in the time of the epidemic emergency they would be reporting cases daily when everybody is asking how many people died today. Furthermore you need accurate time of death to keep updating the models. The peak-to-peak amplitude is pretty high.
  30. @utu
    "The Chinese quarantined all 73 diners in that room"- This is how to do it. Trace all contacts with the infected and locate them up.

    How do you propose to deal with people who were shedding virus before they showed any symptoms, or indeed were shedding virus and never did show any symptoms? I doubt that anything much can be done about the latter, who may be about 50% of those infected. About the former; who the devil knows who he shared a bus with five days earlier? Who can remember exactly which bus he caught? Who else who might have been aboard a candidate bus can remember? “Test and quarantine” might well be helpful. It might delay problems by a useful amount. But otherwise it’s a panacea, in the ironic sense of that term.

    It seems to me that the successful nations – S Korea, Taiwan, Singapore (at least until a few days ago) – used a powerful clue; they started with people who had just arrived from China and specifically from Wuhan. (Observe: those are unwoke countries and presumably give not a stuff about bogus accusations of racism.)

    But as the example of Singapore may show – and the resurgence of cases in China may show – there may be no stopping this ruddy thing for long.

    It might be wise to apply some calm, critical thought to how best to protect the people who are unusually vulnerable. It might be wise to try to buy time by practising social distancing, hand-washing, quarantining, and whatnot. But unless someone stumbles across a successful treatment, or a useful vaccine is developed, it might be wise to accept that long term we are in the soup. Just like the bats.

    • Agree: Kyle
    • Replies: @utu
    “Test and quarantine” might well be helpful. It might delay problems by a useful amount. But otherwise it’s a panacea, in the ironic sense of that term. - No, it is not a panacea. The average probabilities over the whole population must reach a critical point to extinguish the epidemic. It is like the masks that do not protect you 100% and do not prevent you form infecting others 100% but they lower the probabilities and in combination with lower number of average contacts the reproduction number R0 is pushed below 1. So when some asymptomatic spreaders are missed it does not mean that a local flare up will turn into the full blown outbreak.

    I think many people fall into the trap of false dichotomy that either we have a herd immunity or we will have to be in the lockdown forever. The epidemic can be contained and extinguished on lower than herd immunity prevalence. For example SARS in 2002-2003 was extinguished w/o reaching herd immunity prevalence in Ontario or Toronto.

    It is unfortunate that the false dichotomy narrative is being pushed by various internet gurus like Kurt Wittkowski who cater to people who are fed up with the lockdown and would like to get over with it by letting the epidemic to burn through whatever the human life cost.
    , @Erik L
    People are over-reacting to the asymptomatic spreader idea. Influenza patients are known to shed virus for days before developing symptoms and I read a review article from 2009 that showed we still don't know if this is a significant source of transmission. Just because you can detect RNA on a surface or in a throat doesn't mean is will be a significant source of transmission.
    , @Don't Look at Me
    Many people live their life by routine. They take the same bus to work every day. These people would know exactly which bus they used. Others would have a general idea of when they used a bus, which could be used by investigators to come up with a short list of buses he might have used.

    This has got me thinking about New York though. Like many parts of Asia, New York has a robust, widely used public transportation system. Most of the US is not like that at all. We like our cars. You can't pass on the virus to strangers while you are driving to work by yourself in your car, but you can certainly do so when you take a bus or subway back and forth each day.

    Thing is, South Korea also has a strong public transportation system, especially Seoul where about half the population lives. It is testament to their efficiency that they were able to get on top of this.
  31. Contact tracing must be a real hoot in China…

    INVESTIGATOR: So, you say you were eating lunch in a crowded restaurant, and a man at the next table was coughing? Can you describe him?

    WITNESS: Yes, his name was Chang. He was short and slender, with straight black hair and brown eyes with epicanthic folds. He wore glasses.

    INVESTIGATOR: Hmm, short, black hair, brown eyes, glasses, named Chang… We’ll be able to track him down in, oh, I’d say, about eleven thousand years.

    • LOL: Tusk
    • Replies: @Elli
    Chang paid with a phone app, so the Chinese government knows he was there. They could ask Chang who his guests were, but they probably took that info at the door when they did the temperature check.
    , @Cortes
    Fantastic!

    Thanks. That’s given me the best laugh for ages.
  32. @PiltdownMan
    Air conditioning is not the norm in India, which is a poor country. Homes with electricity usually have electric ceiling fans, which are worse.

    But that's the issue with identifying and singling out this particular mode of transmission. Indoor spaces need air flow, otherwise they are stiflingly still and uncomfortable to be in. It seems to me there's not much you can do about it.

    While the A/C directional airflow/floorplan diagram is instructive, it is important to note that there are eddies and nuances to airflow patterns within a room due to multiple variables.

  33. @PiltdownMan
    I wonder if people have developed a permanent innate aversion to eating in relatively small and crowded, but convivial, spaces indoors. Perhaps not, and things will go back to normal after all this. But if they have, that will change the economics of the restaurant business.

    https://media-cdn.tripadvisor.com/media/photo-s/06/fc/51/95/round-table.jpg

    The economics of the restaurant business are by nature shaky in the best of economic and epidemiological times. The economics of the restaurant business from 2006 up to Covid 19 can only be described like the economics of so many other businesses– a house of cards.

    Very little will ever be the same.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    The economics of the restaurant business are by nature shaky in the best of economic and epidemiological times. The economics of the restaurant business from 2006 up to Covid 19 can only be described like the economics of so many other businesses– a house of cards.

    Very little will ever be the same.
     
    What do you predict is going to happen?
  34. @Steve Sailer
    It's not uncommon in places in the U.S. for fewer deaths to be reported on Mondays, which is probably due to bureaucrats having Sunday off.

    Yes, I can see it but I would expect that in the time of the epidemic emergency they would be reporting cases daily when everybody is asking how many people died today. Furthermore you need accurate time of death to keep updating the models. The peak-to-peak amplitude is pretty high.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Sweden is getting notorious for not reporting weekend deaths until maybe the following Tuesday.

    I write my Taki's column Monday night. I've discovered that the Monday day stats tend to look pretty encouraging. But as I'm finishing up, the Tuesday in Europe stats start to come in and they look discouraging because they are getting a lot of Sunday numbers that got delayed.

    , @128
    Why is there so much implicit criticism here of cultures that have multigenerational households, my two cents is that having the grandparents in the same house with the grandkids and parents is socially healthier than what you see in the West, and having the grandparents in the same house has a stabilizing and conservative effect on society and depozzing effect on the parents and kids, which you can see in that Italy is a lot more based and still less pozzed than say, Sweden. So the tradeoffs in terms of having to lockdown for 6 weeks just so the grandparents can live under the same roof as the parents and grandkids are well worth it. Basically have more conservative granparents living under the same house as their chidren and grandchidren can also influence their children to take more conservative and based views than they otherwise would.
  35. @Inverness
    Flying Circus. Never ceases to amaze, what they were capable of with a threadbare budget and a few days' weekly schedule.

    Still amusing after all these years….

  36. @utu
    Yes, I can see it but I would expect that in the time of the epidemic emergency they would be reporting cases daily when everybody is asking how many people died today. Furthermore you need accurate time of death to keep updating the models. The peak-to-peak amplitude is pretty high.

    Sweden is getting notorious for not reporting weekend deaths until maybe the following Tuesday.

    I write my Taki’s column Monday night. I’ve discovered that the Monday day stats tend to look pretty encouraging. But as I’m finishing up, the Tuesday in Europe stats start to come in and they look discouraging because they are getting a lot of Sunday numbers that got delayed.

    • Replies: @anon
    You have autocorrelation. The simple solution is to take a moving average. Another approach would be to take the statistic, deaths or confirmed cases or whatever, and apply use the date when symptoms first appeared or date when hospitalized or some earlier date associated with the the process.

    I saw some Chinese data where they plotted date the case was confirmed and then plotted the same data against first symptoms. The latter was nicely smoothed.

    But basically, with a time series and periodicity, you just have less information.
  37. @utu
    Yes, I can see it but I would expect that in the time of the epidemic emergency they would be reporting cases daily when everybody is asking how many people died today. Furthermore you need accurate time of death to keep updating the models. The peak-to-peak amplitude is pretty high.

    Why is there so much implicit criticism here of cultures that have multigenerational households, my two cents is that having the grandparents in the same house with the grandkids and parents is socially healthier than what you see in the West, and having the grandparents in the same house has a stabilizing and conservative effect on society and depozzing effect on the parents and kids, which you can see in that Italy is a lot more based and still less pozzed than say, Sweden. So the tradeoffs in terms of having to lockdown for 6 weeks just so the grandparents can live under the same roof as the parents and grandkids are well worth it. Basically have more conservative granparents living under the same house as their chidren and grandchidren can also influence their children to take more conservative and based views than they otherwise would.

  38. @PiltdownMan
    "Hot pot" restaurant meals, in while diners dangle their food in a communal bowl of broth to cook it, are very popular in Asia. There was a confirmed case of transmission from a hot pot meal in Hong Kong, which caused the shares of hotpot restaurant companies to slide.

    https://haiguitalk.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/e781abe99485-e59083e781abe994851.jpg

    https://www.dimsumdaily.hk/hotpot-stocks-slide-after-hong-kong-family-confirmed-to-have-coronavirus/

    But 5 people got infected at other tables.

    • Replies: @PiltdownMan
    I should have clarified and expanded.

    I didn't mean that that was the alternative explanation in this case. The field study seems to have been done as carefully as possible and pinpointed the airconditioning airflow around the tables as the culprit.

    I meant that, quite separately from the issue of airconditioning in restaurants, the Chinese do eat a lot of hot pot dinners in restaurants, and I'm surprised we've not heard of more dinner table groups getting infected.

    Perhaps they have been, and with so much going on, it hasn't been noticed and reported on—especially since the transmission could plausibly have been airborne over the dinner table, instead.

    But people repeatedly dipping their chopsticks in communal broth—after every single time they put their chopsticks in their mouths and eat a morsel—does seem like a foolproof way to spread a respiratory virus.
  39. @danand

    “It doesn’t make sense that airflow created those results.”
     
    Education realist, I don’t know if the airflow was a significant contributing factor or not. Does seem like a fair possibility that the known infected diner at table A was hacking; as he soon after distributing SARS went to the hospital.

    What I can almost guarantee is that “communal sharing” of food was occurring. That is, the diners at each table we’re picking food off common plates with their individual utensils/chopsticks (the same utensils they were placing their mouths). This is common practice in China, even what I would call, for lack of a better term, “good manners”. Anyone who has dined in China knows this.

    But 5 of 11 people at other tables were also infected.

    That’s what’s really scary for the restaurant business. Lots of people aren’t going to go back to restaurants if they fear getting infected by some stranger at a different table.

    • Replies: @education realist
    So air could go backwards and forwards and infect only one side of a room.

    Meanwhile, it's not even remotely possible that there was an aysmptomatic waiter in the room? Or perhaps the restaurant's bathroom played a part? Maybe the sick guy was friends with the people in those tables, got up and shook hands?

    But no, a magic current of air goes up one side of the room, back the same way, and never reaches the people on the other side of the room?

    I don't know how anyone looks at C1 and C2 getting infected, but no one at much closer table E and says hmm, must be air.

    And I can't imagine Americans who aren't already scared of the virus being scared by this picture.
  40. @anon
    The focus of this incident is on the direction of the "wind," meaning that the virus is carried through the air. A month ago everyone was focused on transmission by physical contact: "masks are useless, but whatever you do, don't touch your face!"

    Turns out that was a lot of hogwash and probably made the pandemic worse.

    Walls don't work. Masks don't work. What else "doesn't work" that obviously does? I suppose immigration restriction doesn't work (they seem to work in Israel) because replacement level immigration is "inevitable." Or is it "not happening?" I forget. It's either inevitable or not happening, and they keep going back and forth depending on their audience. Either way, they both converge on one policy: don't do anything to limit immigration, because it's both "inevitable as the tides" and "not happening."

    I’m not saying masks are useless, they’re definitely effective. But washing your hands, not picking your nose, and not touching your face is at the very least as important as wearing a mask. Viruses are passed on though bodily fluids. Saliva, mucus, blood, urine & waste. If somebody else gets that on their hands, then touches something that you touch, then you transfer it to your eyes nose or mouth, then you can get it.

  41. @RichardTaylor
    Baby Boomers get obsessed over every little detail that affects their lives. So, we get endless discussions like this about a little virus that didn't lill as many as the flu. Meanwhile, White children are now minority status in their own country.

    If Boomers, as a generation, had any honor, they would save the passion helping future Whites. They would lead the charge to make changes, like getting rid of "civil rights" and Nixon's affirmative action.

    But that would take moral courage. And the Drama Queen Boomers would rather bleat about how their pathetic ass might be affected by a bug.

    My advice to young White people: You don't owe these people anything.

    If Boomers, as a generation, had any honor, they would save the passion helping future Whites. They would lead the charge to make changes, like getting rid of “civil rights” and Nixon’s affirmative action.

    Support the ERA! It’s the stealth way to achieve the results you are advocating.

  42. @PiltdownMan
    "Hot pot" restaurant meals, in while diners dangle their food in a communal bowl of broth to cook it, are very popular in Asia. There was a confirmed case of transmission from a hot pot meal in Hong Kong, which caused the shares of hotpot restaurant companies to slide.

    https://haiguitalk.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/e781abe99485-e59083e781abe994851.jpg

    https://www.dimsumdaily.hk/hotpot-stocks-slide-after-hong-kong-family-confirmed-to-have-coronavirus/

    “Hot pot” restaurant meals, in while diners dangle their food in a communal bowl of broth to cook it, are very popular in Asia.

    They opened one of those near me (closed now of course). I had no interest to begin with since I don’t really care about Chinese food. But when I looked at the menu and saw that it included both live frogs and live eels — presumably to be tossed into the boiling broth — I was never going to give them a dime.

    • Replies: @Paco Wové
    "live frogs and live eels — presumably to be tossed into the boiling broth"

    Where in God's name do you live?
    , @moshe
    I partied in dark spaces packed to the walls and windows where the aerosal myst of the revelers was almost as thick as the sweat and drinks and weed smoke, and I also ate at a Chinese buffet, the very night before the workd decided to SHUT IT DOWN.

    The terror had been building for 6 weeks already but while I did what I could to make known to the oriental eacapees in my hostel that they were unwanted here sufficiently that they left. I had no proboem with joining all of the Orientals at the Chinese Buffet on account of the logical assumption that they all more or less lived here and were not recent refugees with buggies.

    As for partying, I gave up Eat-The-Mic karakoe a full two nights before the shutdown but was less concerned about parts-per-billion of Covid Saliva among the party people.

    I have no ethnic animosity towards Chinese restaurants that abide by the white man's health standards, and only have a problem being around the chinese themselves when they are running from / carrying a plague.

    Part of the reason Covid spread is because we gave it attention.

    Telling everyone in Wuhan, and then Lombardy, and then Spain and then New York City -- "ALL WHO REMAIN HERE WILL DIE!!!!" will encourage mwny of them to leave, no?

    If this disease arrived in 1977 q lot of people would have died in China and that would pretty much be it. There wouldn't have been enough carries with major viral loads to make it here, and if it did make it here it probably wouldn't even have gotten any publicity at all beyond "bad cold season, especially for old people, so don't kiss your grandkids until Spring".
  43. @education realist
    It doesn't make sense that airflow created those results. There were eight restaurant employees. They didn't get sick, but that doesn't mean they didn't transmit the virus from one customer to another. Maybe they are asymptomatic carriers. Or maybe it's the bathroom.

    But I can't see any reasonable person looking at the diagram and thinking hey, it's the air conditioner!

    In the image, there are fourteen people to the right of the suspected source and four of them got the virus. There are six to the left (if only slightly), and five of them got infected. I’m ignoring tables E and F. Not conclusive but not unreasonable to suspect the AC is behind that distinct pattern.

    • Replies: @education realist
    Ignoring tables E and F, where no one got infected, is what makes the whole exercise ridiculous.
  44. @PiltdownMan
    "Hot pot" restaurant meals, in while diners dangle their food in a communal bowl of broth to cook it, are very popular in Asia. There was a confirmed case of transmission from a hot pot meal in Hong Kong, which caused the shares of hotpot restaurant companies to slide.

    https://haiguitalk.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/e781abe99485-e59083e781abe994851.jpg

    https://www.dimsumdaily.hk/hotpot-stocks-slide-after-hong-kong-family-confirmed-to-have-coronavirus/

    It’s hard to see how things will shake out but I wonder if this epidemic will change eating habits in any way.

    I’ve heard it suggested that after the shutdowns end buffets will either sharply reduce in number or go the way of the dinosaur. I think I’ll believe it when I see it here in modern Weimerica.

    Going along with Steve’s original post I remember seeing things on Twitter early on in this epidemic that suggested sharing meal tables/food was a particularly virulent way to spread CV.

    Maybe stricter table manners would be a good way to combat CV? Eat off your own plate, no more taking a bite or sharing of others’ food etc?

    I have a cousin on the pushy, overbearing side. When the extended family meets for a meal she’ll often take her fork and spear something off someone else’s plate without asking if she wants to try it. I hate this, I think it’s terrible manners, but my family just thinks I’m being peevish if I gripe about it. Maybe I should just tell her it’s a damn hazard.

  45. @dearieme
    How do you propose to deal with people who were shedding virus before they showed any symptoms, or indeed were shedding virus and never did show any symptoms? I doubt that anything much can be done about the latter, who may be about 50% of those infected. About the former; who the devil knows who he shared a bus with five days earlier? Who can remember exactly which bus he caught? Who else who might have been aboard a candidate bus can remember? "Test and quarantine" might well be helpful. It might delay problems by a useful amount. But otherwise it's a panacea, in the ironic sense of that term.

    It seems to me that the successful nations - S Korea, Taiwan, Singapore (at least until a few days ago) - used a powerful clue; they started with people who had just arrived from China and specifically from Wuhan. (Observe: those are unwoke countries and presumably give not a stuff about bogus accusations of racism.)

    But as the example of Singapore may show - and the resurgence of cases in China may show - there may be no stopping this ruddy thing for long.

    It might be wise to apply some calm, critical thought to how best to protect the people who are unusually vulnerable. It might be wise to try to buy time by practising social distancing, hand-washing, quarantining, and whatnot. But unless someone stumbles across a successful treatment, or a useful vaccine is developed, it might be wise to accept that long term we are in the soup. Just like the bats.

    “Test and quarantine” might well be helpful. It might delay problems by a useful amount. But otherwise it’s a panacea, in the ironic sense of that term. – No, it is not a panacea. The average probabilities over the whole population must reach a critical point to extinguish the epidemic. It is like the masks that do not protect you 100% and do not prevent you form infecting others 100% but they lower the probabilities and in combination with lower number of average contacts the reproduction number R0 is pushed below 1. So when some asymptomatic spreaders are missed it does not mean that a local flare up will turn into the full blown outbreak.

    I think many people fall into the trap of false dichotomy that either we have a herd immunity or we will have to be in the lockdown forever. The epidemic can be contained and extinguished on lower than herd immunity prevalence. For example SARS in 2002-2003 was extinguished w/o reaching herd immunity prevalence in Ontario or Toronto.

    It is unfortunate that the false dichotomy narrative is being pushed by various internet gurus like Kurt Wittkowski who cater to people who are fed up with the lockdown and would like to get over with it by letting the epidemic to burn through whatever the human life cost.

  46. Most New Yorkers did not contract the virus in restaurants. About half the deaths are among elderly nursing home residents. In New Jersey , Connecticut , Pennsylvania we now know that half the fatalities occurred in Nursing homes and long-term care facilities. These people have not eaten in a restaurant in years , nor have they taken a subway or gone to work in decades.

    The media hides the data , failing to report honestly because they started the panic and seek to extend the panic and economic catastrophe. Nobody caught the Coronavirus in our parks or playing golf , yet these outdoor places are shutdown here while liquor stores remain open. Thousand of New Yorkers died in nursing homes this week , yet the press ignores reality to pump up the panic narrative.

    To save lives we need to close all the nursing homes and get these elderly people to the parks… yet in New Jersey the governor forces the nursing homes to accept CV positive patients while keeping the parks closed.

    • Replies: @Travis
    at least 25% of CV deaths are linked to nursing home facilities...They need to shut them all down to stop the spread....but instead they are sending COVID 19 patients into the nursing homes to infect the elderly...almost seems like part of the plan to increase deaths and further the panic.

    New York’s health commissioner on Monday defended a directive that requires nursing homes to readmit residents who’ve tested positive for the coronavirus

    The largest states are ordering nursing homes to accept infected patients who are still recovering from COVID-19. "The question is, should we be forced to introduce a disease with such deadly potential into a population that has been sheltered?"

    Also, it won't even help overcrowded hospitals, says Dr. Wasserman "If you push folks out of the hospitals to make space and you push them into nursing homes a couple weeks later,....for every one of those you send to the nursing home, you may get 20 back in the hospital." https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/20/832034662/discharging-covid-19-patients-to-nursing-homes-called-a-recipe-for-disaster

    Inside nursing homes, coronavirus brings isolation and over 7,300 deaths. The actual count is far higher, advocates for seniors believe, because the available data only covers 19 states where governors' offices and state departments of health have kept track. Most states do not yet report this data and did not reply to requests for this information. https://abcnews.go.com/Health/inside-nursing-homes-coronavirus-brings-isolation-7300-deaths/story?id=70225836
    , @anonymous

    Nobody caught the Coronavirus in our parks or playing golf , yet these outdoor places are shutdown here while liquor stores remain open.
     
    I would LOVE to see liquor stores closed, because I like the idea of a ginormous number of people realizing their alcoholics, all at the same fucking time. And then acting out like animals in public. All the screaming, crying, and the beatings! Wow. All the senseless beating across America by and for america's elite. Imagine the Kardashians beating the holy shit out of each other.

    It would be the greatest event of my lifetime, aside from Trump getting elected.
    , @JMcG
    Subways open and parks closed are all you need to know about this. Every jumped up little Stalin in public office is living the dream right now. Look at the smacked asses driving around by themselves while wearing face masks.
    , @Keypusher

    Thousand of New Yorkers died in nursing homes this week , yet the press ignores reality to pump up the panic narrative.
     
    The press/media is screaming about nursing homes nonstop. What planet are you on?
  47. @J.Ross
    https://www.twitter.com/tariqnasheed/status/1252442488238833667

    The difference? The poor downtrodden black bodies acquiesced immediately and without incident. Nary a peep was heard but those racist cops just kicked them and beat them down.

    Those Hasidic fellas got super violent for sure. But the cops let them off because….YT (just don’t ask the Jews if they’re white).

    Nailed it!

  48. @PiltdownMan
    One of the striking aspects of office culture in Asia is that almost every office-worker eats out at lunchtime, every working day of the week. I observed it to be a near universal custom in Hong Kong, Tokyo, and Singapore. Nobody eats at their desk. That's a habit that's likely not going to change.

    Another thing that's not going to change is ventilation and airflow in modern buildings. There's only so much you can do about diseases borne by miasmas, so to speak. What is true for a restaurant is equally true for an office, a schoolroom, public transportation, or any place where people congregate for any purpose and stay still for a period of time.

    I’d be wary of high-rise elevators right now as well

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    Is there an existing machine we can tack onto an elevator roof to make it significantly safer, like an air curtain dividing the elevator cabin into slots?
  49. @ScarletNumber
    I believe this was how Legionnaire's Disease was spread.

    This probably should be taken with a grain of salt (or for this particular post some MSG), but I read one fascinating comment drawing a slew of superficial comparisons between COVID and Legionnaire’s — e.g. how it spreads and who it kills

    • Replies: @Jack D
    They both cause pneumonia but other than that, they could not be more different. Legionnaire's is bacterial, Covid is viral. Covid spreads mostly by person to person contact, Legionnaire's is mostly waterborne. Pretty much all infectious diseases, especially those that cause pneumonia, affect the most vulnerable members of the herd the most. Pneumonia used to be called "the old man's friend" because it would take old geezers out of their misery.

    That was in the days when death was considered to be something that came to all men. Now we know better and expect to live forever so it's a great tragedy even when incontinent Alzheimer's patients, who literally no longer know their ass from their elbow, die.
  50. @Hebrew National
    Other than that, how was the food?

    And what did the fortune cookies say?

    • Replies: @BenKenobi
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Boq8M9H9M4
  51. @Steve Sailer
    But 5 of 11 people at other tables were also infected.

    That's what's really scary for the restaurant business. Lots of people aren't going to go back to restaurants if they fear getting infected by some stranger at a different table.

    So air could go backwards and forwards and infect only one side of a room.

    Meanwhile, it’s not even remotely possible that there was an aysmptomatic waiter in the room? Or perhaps the restaurant’s bathroom played a part? Maybe the sick guy was friends with the people in those tables, got up and shook hands?

    But no, a magic current of air goes up one side of the room, back the same way, and never reaches the people on the other side of the room?

    I don’t know how anyone looks at C1 and C2 getting infected, but no one at much closer table E and says hmm, must be air.

    And I can’t imagine Americans who aren’t already scared of the virus being scared by this picture.

  52. @David
    In the image, there are fourteen people to the right of the suspected source and four of them got the virus. There are six to the left (if only slightly), and five of them got infected. I'm ignoring tables E and F. Not conclusive but not unreasonable to suspect the AC is behind that distinct pattern.

    Ignoring tables E and F, where no one got infected, is what makes the whole exercise ridiculous.

    • Replies: @David
    It's good that your career doesn't rely on your gleaning information from real world data.

    No one is saying this is clear evidence of anything. It's suggestive. Half a dozen cases like this could demonstrate some relationship. We don't know.

  53. @The Alarmist
    https://youtu.be/bfN2JWifLCY


    Bullets from UnHerd:


    UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based

    The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only

    This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”

    The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better

    The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact

    The paper was very much too pessimistic

    Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway

    The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown

    The results will eventually be similar for all countries

    Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.

    The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%

    At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available


     

    Sweden has done quite badly in comparison to its neighbors Denmark, Norway and Finland. Look at the deaths per capita (175 vs 64, 34 and 25). The cases per capita also look bad but less so since the Swedes tried to hid the disease by doing few tests.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    Like the Prof. said, let's look at the numbers this time next year. All we've done is dragged out our misery.
  54. @utu
    "The Chinese quarantined all 73 diners in that room"- This is how to do it. Trace all contacts with the infected and locate them up.

    The Contact tracing ship sailed in the USA a long time ago. Maybe with the enormously expensive and disruptive lockdown we have arrived at the point that it can again be pursued. Even in NYC in pretty short order.

    Of course, even if we extinguish the virus in the USA entirely (and I doubt that, though universal masking ought to get us closer to there), we will remain vulnerable to any place in the world that it still exists. If we do manage to extinguish it, then we will need the contact tracers for future inmigrants who have it.

    • Replies: @GermanReader2
    Not even just immigrants. I see tourists and illegal aliens as the much bigger problem.
  55. @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    Most New Yorkers did not contract the virus in restaurants. About half the deaths are among elderly nursing home residents. In New Jersey , Connecticut , Pennsylvania we now know that half the fatalities occurred in Nursing homes and long-term care facilities. These people have not eaten in a restaurant in years , nor have they taken a subway or gone to work in decades.

    The media hides the data , failing to report honestly because they started the panic and seek to extend the panic and economic catastrophe. Nobody caught the Coronavirus in our parks or playing golf , yet these outdoor places are shutdown here while liquor stores remain open. Thousand of New Yorkers died in nursing homes this week , yet the press ignores reality to pump up the panic narrative.

    To save lives we need to close all the nursing homes and get these elderly people to the parks... yet in New Jersey the governor forces the nursing homes to accept CV positive patients while keeping the parks closed.

    at least 25% of CV deaths are linked to nursing home facilities…They need to shut them all down to stop the spread….but instead they are sending COVID 19 patients into the nursing homes to infect the elderly…almost seems like part of the plan to increase deaths and further the panic.

    New York’s health commissioner on Monday defended a directive that requires nursing homes to readmit residents who’ve tested positive for the coronavirus

    The largest states are ordering nursing homes to accept infected patients who are still recovering from COVID-19. “The question is, should we be forced to introduce a disease with such deadly potential into a population that has been sheltered?”

    Also, it won’t even help overcrowded hospitals, says Dr. Wasserman “If you push folks out of the hospitals to make space and you push them into nursing homes a couple weeks later,….for every one of those you send to the nursing home, you may get 20 back in the hospital.” https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/20/832034662/discharging-covid-19-patients-to-nursing-homes-called-a-recipe-for-disaster

    Inside nursing homes, coronavirus brings isolation and over 7,300 deaths. The actual count is far higher, advocates for seniors believe, because the available data only covers 19 states where governors’ offices and state departments of health have kept track. Most states do not yet report this data and did not reply to requests for this information. https://abcnews.go.com/Health/inside-nursing-homes-coronavirus-brings-isolation-7300-deaths/story?id=70225836

    • Replies: @moshe
    +1

    What percentage of cases and deaths actually were from nursing homes?

    If a quarter of them were then HOLY F, the point I've been making for months is even truer than I could have ever imagined:

    Quarantine the elderly and sick AND THEIR CARERS as air-tight from contagion as possible and let everyone else who isn't remotely ill go about their day (though quarantine the remotely ill of any age).

    Where do you quarantine the elderly with carers - incluring a couple of full time doctors, nurses, receptionists and people who know how to order groceries online??? Uh, isn't that what nursing homes are supposed to be?

    The problem isn't nursing homes. Nursing homes are the solution. Those nursing homes that offered up half of their residents to the angel of death ought to be investigated and brought up on criminal charges.

    They had a community of people who were the LEAST LIKELY to catch the bug and yet,,,, -- that's a sign if Gross Negligence.

    And locking up billions of normal folk if so so many of the dead were due only to this exact form of Gross Negligence would have been okay if we were told the truth but they lied to us.

    Or did they?

    Even at this late hour in the game I still don't know the true answer to the questions I posed at the opening of this comment:

    What percentage of the Covid Dead came from Nursing Homes?
    , @Mr. Anon
    NYC also hasn't shut down its subways.

    It's almost as if the City and State of New York wanted to kill off a lot of its citizens.
  56. @Hebrew National
    Other than that, how was the food?

    Did they integrated the Bat Soup variable into the equation? How many had Kung Pow Pangolin?

  57. @Buzz Mohawk

    In general, we are going to need a lot more case studies like this.
     
    No. In general, we are going to have to stop freaking out about this.

    The same diagram could probably apply for a cold, another flu, or when somebody farts. And the consequences would be about the same.

    The mortality rate is low, and what we need is a cost-benefit analysis of how we are destroying our world for this. Why don't we see that here?

    Wuhan Virus is (for the time being, until we achieve herd immunity) significantly worse than the flu . If it is possible thru contact tracing to isolate the disease and have it die off, that’s the preferred option. Many other contagious diseases have been stopped in their tracks this way. It is a standard public health measure that has been practiced for over a century. Remember Typhoid Mary? It has been met with great success in NZ and in S. Korea.

    The problem is that we waited far too long and so the stuff is out in “the community”. Once a disease is in the community contact tracing becomes difficult or impossible, especially in such a liberty loving/mobile/disorganized country such as the US. Good luck doing contact tracing on mentally ill homeless people.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    As I said,

    ... what we need is a cost-benefit analysis of how we are destroying our world for this. Why don’t we see that here?

    Aren't MBAs supposed to be good at this stuff?
  58. anonymous[186] • Disclaimer says:
    @anon
    The focus of this incident is on the direction of the "wind," meaning that the virus is carried through the air. A month ago everyone was focused on transmission by physical contact: "masks are useless, but whatever you do, don't touch your face!"

    Turns out that was a lot of hogwash and probably made the pandemic worse.

    Walls don't work. Masks don't work. What else "doesn't work" that obviously does? I suppose immigration restriction doesn't work (they seem to work in Israel) because replacement level immigration is "inevitable." Or is it "not happening?" I forget. It's either inevitable or not happening, and they keep going back and forth depending on their audience. Either way, they both converge on one policy: don't do anything to limit immigration, because it's both "inevitable as the tides" and "not happening."

    The focus of this incident is on the direction of the “wind,” meaning that the virus is carried through the air. A month ago everyone was focused on transmission by physical contact: “masks are useless, but whatever you do, don’t touch your face!”

    Turns out that was a lot of hogwash and probably made the pandemic worse.

    Pandemics allow for entrepreneurial opportunities that didn’t exist before.
    Quit complaining, put your entrepreneurial hat on, and play to win, old sport!

    I was just over at Costco, and it’s getting pretty dicey over there:

  59. Here is a low cost solution that could scale up quickly with only moderate inconvenience:

    Some version of each customer having their own compartment should cut down a lot on infections across rooms. For even more effect those compartments could be washed between customers. The version in the video looks a little too small. But floor to ceiling variants shouldn’t be much more expensive

    For group interaction there could be microphones and speakers in each compartment around a table.

    Same solution could work for any kind of business where face to face interaction is necessary or at least useful. For instance, if you go to the dentist there could be a ventilated glass box around your head and the dentist puts his hands through holes in the side.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    I'd like to see how this would work out at the Modern Toilet:


    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=VAT9RH8EpiA
  60. One way to think about air-flows in a room like this is the ‘lake’ analogy. A creek flowing into a small lake causes waves and ripples on the surface. Creek flowing out of a lake doesn’t. Here the inflow is almost certainly turbulent. With the air conditioner probably high on the wall – it’s difficult to say who is downwind from whom at any given moment.

    How the infection spread is also difficult to say, perhaps the staff took care of that. I think the only thing we can take away from this is how to do contact tracing. One infected person resulted in removal of several others from the infectious pool.

    There is no doubt contact tracing is powerful tool, and can replace other -more economically devastating – means to drive down Ro.

  61. anonymous[186] • Disclaimer says:
    @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    Most New Yorkers did not contract the virus in restaurants. About half the deaths are among elderly nursing home residents. In New Jersey , Connecticut , Pennsylvania we now know that half the fatalities occurred in Nursing homes and long-term care facilities. These people have not eaten in a restaurant in years , nor have they taken a subway or gone to work in decades.

    The media hides the data , failing to report honestly because they started the panic and seek to extend the panic and economic catastrophe. Nobody caught the Coronavirus in our parks or playing golf , yet these outdoor places are shutdown here while liquor stores remain open. Thousand of New Yorkers died in nursing homes this week , yet the press ignores reality to pump up the panic narrative.

    To save lives we need to close all the nursing homes and get these elderly people to the parks... yet in New Jersey the governor forces the nursing homes to accept CV positive patients while keeping the parks closed.

    Nobody caught the Coronavirus in our parks or playing golf , yet these outdoor places are shutdown here while liquor stores remain open.

    I would LOVE to see liquor stores closed, because I like the idea of a ginormous number of people realizing their alcoholics, all at the same fucking time. And then acting out like animals in public. All the screaming, crying, and the beatings! Wow. All the senseless beating across America by and for america’s elite. Imagine the Kardashians beating the holy shit out of each other.

    It would be the greatest event of my lifetime, aside from Trump getting elected.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad

    I would LOVE to see liquor stores closed, because I like the idea of a ginormous number of people realizing their alcoholics ...
     
    You close the liquor stores, you'll suddenly have a real issue with the lockdown!

    Heck, my bottle of SouthernComfort covid-19 gargle is running low.

    I'd go stock up ... but even our politicians aren't that stupid.

    One thing it would do is give the good ol' boys some employment.
  62. @Known Fact
    This probably should be taken with a grain of salt (or for this particular post some MSG), but I read one fascinating comment drawing a slew of superficial comparisons between COVID and Legionnaire's -- e.g. how it spreads and who it kills

    They both cause pneumonia but other than that, they could not be more different. Legionnaire’s is bacterial, Covid is viral. Covid spreads mostly by person to person contact, Legionnaire’s is mostly waterborne. Pretty much all infectious diseases, especially those that cause pneumonia, affect the most vulnerable members of the herd the most. Pneumonia used to be called “the old man’s friend” because it would take old geezers out of their misery.

    That was in the days when death was considered to be something that came to all men. Now we know better and expect to live forever so it’s a great tragedy even when incontinent Alzheimer’s patients, who literally no longer know their ass from their elbow, die.

    • Agree: 3g4me
    • Replies: @Known Fact
    Of course bacteria vs. virus but the list of symptoms does sound similar. Legionnaire spread is not person-to-person but waterborne as you say, but the tainted water could spread through AC systems. It was a real puzzle for a while and then in NYC I seem to recall the problem being traced to those old rooftop water tanks.
  63. @Steve Sailer
    But 5 people got infected at other tables.

    I should have clarified and expanded.

    I didn’t mean that that was the alternative explanation in this case. The field study seems to have been done as carefully as possible and pinpointed the airconditioning airflow around the tables as the culprit.

    I meant that, quite separately from the issue of airconditioning in restaurants, the Chinese do eat a lot of hot pot dinners in restaurants, and I’m surprised we’ve not heard of more dinner table groups getting infected.

    Perhaps they have been, and with so much going on, it hasn’t been noticed and reported on—especially since the transmission could plausibly have been airborne over the dinner table, instead.

    But people repeatedly dipping their chopsticks in communal broth—after every single time they put their chopsticks in their mouths and eat a morsel—does seem like a foolproof way to spread a respiratory virus.

  64. @utu
    "The Chinese quarantined all 73 diners in that room"- This is how to do it. Trace all contacts with the infected and locate them up.

    Yep, we need a way to track everyone. I reccommend the “undocumented” people here first, they have had the lowest access to health care for the longest time. Once we isolate them – for their own safety – we can turn them over to ICE to send them home. Don’t tell the democrats though, they need the votes. Don’t tell the RINOs, they need the cheap labor. Good luck!

  65. @Known Fact
    I'd be wary of high-rise elevators right now as well

    Is there an existing machine we can tack onto an elevator roof to make it significantly safer, like an air curtain dividing the elevator cabin into slots?

    • Replies: @Known Fact
    I'd already been thinking about every building entrance someday having some kind of decontamination zone or chamber, perhaps with potent UV light or some imperceptible but miraculous misting. Elevators would be perfect for this too if it could be perfected. Or do we just add plexiglass compartments, or make every elevator ride single-occupancy?
  66. @dearieme
    How do you propose to deal with people who were shedding virus before they showed any symptoms, or indeed were shedding virus and never did show any symptoms? I doubt that anything much can be done about the latter, who may be about 50% of those infected. About the former; who the devil knows who he shared a bus with five days earlier? Who can remember exactly which bus he caught? Who else who might have been aboard a candidate bus can remember? "Test and quarantine" might well be helpful. It might delay problems by a useful amount. But otherwise it's a panacea, in the ironic sense of that term.

    It seems to me that the successful nations - S Korea, Taiwan, Singapore (at least until a few days ago) - used a powerful clue; they started with people who had just arrived from China and specifically from Wuhan. (Observe: those are unwoke countries and presumably give not a stuff about bogus accusations of racism.)

    But as the example of Singapore may show - and the resurgence of cases in China may show - there may be no stopping this ruddy thing for long.

    It might be wise to apply some calm, critical thought to how best to protect the people who are unusually vulnerable. It might be wise to try to buy time by practising social distancing, hand-washing, quarantining, and whatnot. But unless someone stumbles across a successful treatment, or a useful vaccine is developed, it might be wise to accept that long term we are in the soup. Just like the bats.

    People are over-reacting to the asymptomatic spreader idea. Influenza patients are known to shed virus for days before developing symptoms and I read a review article from 2009 that showed we still don’t know if this is a significant source of transmission. Just because you can detect RNA on a surface or in a throat doesn’t mean is will be a significant source of transmission.

  67. @PiltdownMan
    I wonder if people have developed a permanent innate aversion to eating in relatively small and crowded, but convivial, spaces indoors. Perhaps not, and things will go back to normal after all this. But if they have, that will change the economics of the restaurant business.

    https://media-cdn.tripadvisor.com/media/photo-s/06/fc/51/95/round-table.jpg

    No loss.

    Personal taste, i know. But Americans waste a huge amount of money “going out”–especially for a nation of people that on average have next to no savings.

    We almost never go out and have zero desire to do so. We have our friends and family over. Winter–fire up the fireplace. Nice weather–deck/patio.

    — the company is better; you can listen and talk to your friends without the din from all the nitwits
    — the food–if AnotherMom is cooking–is better; but even with simple fare, plenty good enough
    — the seating is more comfortable; i’ve got those $17 plastic aidrondacks from HomeDepot with lumber support (and some cushions for those who like ’em).
    — you can get up and move around as you like; talk to this person, then some other person
    — you want another cold beer or margarita or glass of wine or whatever … just go grab it–without getting robbed
    — and when the tank is full … the bathroom is nicer

    Blow off this twitchy nonsense and just invite your neighbors, friends, family over and enjoy life. Everything about it is better than “going out”.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    the seating is more comfortable; i’ve got those $17 plastic aidrondacks from HomeDepot with lumber support (and some cushions for those who like ’em).
     
    The plastic has to be reinforced with wood? I'm not buying from Home Depot! IKEA's are all wood, and their cafeteria is better.

    Oh, speaking and as an appleknocker, I suggest Adirondack be capitalized and spelled correctly.
    , @Jack D
    I (used to) enjoy going out on weekends. It's a form of entertainment. It helps that due to our ridiculous liquor laws many place in Philly are BYOB so you don't get robbed. I understand why restaurants have to mark up food (more below) but it's ridiculous if they charge you $36 for a $12 bottle of wine - all they do is open it.

    But I read that Americans BC (before Covid) ate 50% of their meals out of the home which was excessive and speaks of laziness. Generally speaking, in order for a restaurant to stay in business the menu prices must average out to 400% of the food cost (some items more, some less - e.g. McDonalds makes more on french fries and soda, less on hamburgers, fine dining restaurants make less on fish than they do on chicken) because they need the other 300% to pay for rent, labor, utilities, supplies, etc. When you eat at home, your rent/mortgage is paid anyway, your labor is free, etc. so aside from a few pennies worth of electricity or gas to cook the meal, your cost for the meal is going to be the food cost only, or less than 1/4 of what you would have spent in a restaurant (you don't have tax and tip on top of the grocery cost to pay at home either).
    , @MBlanc46
    I guess that Mme B and I will just have to continue to go out until we get an invite to one of your does.
  68. @PiltdownMan
    I wonder if people have developed a permanent innate aversion to eating in relatively small and crowded, but convivial, spaces indoors. Perhaps not, and things will go back to normal after all this. But if they have, that will change the economics of the restaurant business.

    https://media-cdn.tripadvisor.com/media/photo-s/06/fc/51/95/round-table.jpg

    I wonder if people have developed a permanent innate aversion to eating in relatively small and crowded, but convivial, spaces indoors. Perhaps not, and things will go back to normal after all this. But if they have, that will change the economics of the restaurant business.

    The Spanish flu was followed by a decade and a half of crowded speakeasies. Memories are short!

  69. @AnotherDad
    No loss.

    Personal taste, i know. But Americans waste a huge amount of money "going out"--especially for a nation of people that on average have next to no savings.

    We almost never go out and have zero desire to do so. We have our friends and family over. Winter--fire up the fireplace. Nice weather--deck/patio.

    -- the company is better; you can listen and talk to your friends without the din from all the nitwits
    -- the food--if AnotherMom is cooking--is better; but even with simple fare, plenty good enough
    -- the seating is more comfortable; i've got those $17 plastic aidrondacks from HomeDepot with lumber support (and some cushions for those who like 'em).
    -- you can get up and move around as you like; talk to this person, then some other person
    -- you want another cold beer or margarita or glass of wine or whatever ... just go grab it--without getting robbed
    -- and when the tank is full ... the bathroom is nicer

    Blow off this twitchy nonsense and just invite your neighbors, friends, family over and enjoy life. Everything about it is better than "going out".

    the seating is more comfortable; i’ve got those $17 plastic aidrondacks from HomeDepot with lumber support (and some cushions for those who like ’em).

    The plastic has to be reinforced with wood? I’m not buying from Home Depot! IKEA’s are all wood, and their cafeteria is better.

    Oh, speaking and as an appleknocker, I suggest Adirondack be capitalized and spelled correctly.

    • LOL: Coemgen
    • Replies: @AnotherDad

    The plastic has to be reinforced with wood?
     

    Edit fail! (My fingers often don't write what my brain orders up. I need to get better with the edit.)

    But yeah, i like these Adirondacks with lumbar support. Sitting in one now in my living room. (AnotherMom made a nice muted color cushion for it and i've got some of those furniture moving coasters so it's not digging into the carpet.)

    Cheap, light, comfortable. Winner!

  70. A Case Study from a Chinese Restaurant

    The past two months have been a case study from a Chinese fire drill. Everywhere. Nobody seems to know anything, but is quick to blame others.

    I vaguely remember some Russian insult comparing chaotic events to a Chinese restaurant. Anyone recognize this?

  71. From A Case Study from a Chinese Restaurant, we move swiftly to

    Scenes from an Italian Restaurant:

  72. @Jack D
    Wuhan Virus is (for the time being, until we achieve herd immunity) significantly worse than the flu . If it is possible thru contact tracing to isolate the disease and have it die off, that's the preferred option. Many other contagious diseases have been stopped in their tracks this way. It is a standard public health measure that has been practiced for over a century. Remember Typhoid Mary? It has been met with great success in NZ and in S. Korea.

    The problem is that we waited far too long and so the stuff is out in "the community". Once a disease is in the community contact tracing becomes difficult or impossible, especially in such a liberty loving/mobile/disorganized country such as the US. Good luck doing contact tracing on mentally ill homeless people.

    As I said,

    what we need is a cost-benefit analysis of how we are destroying our world for this. Why don’t we see that here?

    Aren’t MBAs supposed to be good at this stuff?

    • Replies: @jbwilson24
    "… what we need is a cost-benefit analysis of how we are destroying our world for this. Why don’t we see that here?"

    Yep, there is no cost/benefit at all. We are basically destroying the economy, enriching the 1% and impoverishing the middle class for the sake of a virus that has yet to show that it is a bigger threat than preventable medical error.

    In WW1, millions of people died for the sake of empires. We had no problem sacrificing generations of young men to die for no good reason whatsoever, and now we are willing to burn the economy to prevent a few fatties and old fogies from dying.

    No one that I am aware of has modeled the impact of impoverishment, isolation, lack of access to social services (etc etc) and balanced it out with the deaths from this overblown viral threat. None. It's a shameful display of complete and utter incompetence on the part of policy makers.

    The health care system trades off lives for dollars all the time. Canada and the UK, for instance, have limited health care budgets so health care administrators have to draft policies that allocate resources wisely. Sparing no expense to save 103 year olds is a really really bad policy for obvious reasons. Killing an economy to keep fatties and fogies alive is likewise stupid.

    The fact that governments are so lax and unprepared to model these scenarios is shocking. Utterly shocking. One of my research fields is critical infrastructure protection, and I am appalled that the idiots in power don't have better decision support.
  73. @utu
    OT: Strange periodic pattern in Swedish daily deaths

    https://i.ibb.co/5BhnjdM/graph3.png

    The minima happen on weekends around Saturdays or Sundays or Mondays? How does this periodicity can be explained?

    (1) Are people who die on weekends more likely to get assigned to the "death with virus" rather than to the "death of virus" category? Why?

    (2) What if on weekends they do the push down of stats to keep the deaths rate low to fulfill the assurance of their Chief Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell (*) that they wills slash the death rate to lower than seasonal flu?

    (3) Or is it possible there are less deaths on weekends? Perhaps they do not have the chief physician who decides whose plug to pull so some people live few days longer until the chief physician returns from his weekend and do his job of pulling the plug?

    (*) Sweden’s Chief Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell
    https://archive.fo/seBhv#selection-981.0-981.230
    April 3
    The Swedes believe that changing how the figures are reported will cut the number of people dying from coronavirus by as much as four fifths, and slash the death rate to well below 1 per cent, perhaps even lower than seasonal flu

     

    For Sweden the reputation stake is so high that I won't be surprised that they are cooking the books. The pressure to keep down the death rates must be tremendous.

    The Swedish experiment has been exceedingly ho-hum.

    The cyclic aspect is just bureaucracy, getting deaths reported during office hours.

    Overall Sweden has pretty much tracked the US experience. Same deaths per thousand. With actually fewer “cases”–but that’s likely just less testing. Quite a bit worse than their Scandi neighbors.

    https://coronavirusgraphs.com/?c=ddm&y=linear&t=line&f=0&ct=&co=2,67,221

    If Sweden is held up by lockdown opponents, i don’t think it makes the case they hope. The government hasn’t bossed people around as much. But people make their own decisions to be more circumspect.

    If your concern is “tyranny!”–and some of the abject stupidity we’ve had here, like closing parks and beaches–then fine. (And i agree.)

    But if it’s the claim that everything would be just fine if the politicians hadn’t started preening? Then no. People in Sweden made their own decisions to dial it back. So it is not “life goes on”.

    ~~

    The nation that looks good on this whole thing is Czechia where they–wisely–masked up. They are doing much better than their Western neighbors and their curve really has been squashed. (A respiratory disease and masks help? Who could imagine that?)

    Patriotic Hungary and Poland are doing well too, but they had a much later start, so it’s hard to make a direct comparison.

    • Replies: @leterip
    I disagree that the Swedish experience is "ho-hum". In a very short while, they will have achieved herd immunity with remarkably low IFR. Their secret sauce is not their not social distancing policies or their compliant population as much as Sweden's very early priority on protecting the most vulnerable especially those in nursing homes. I

    t is pretty clear that they will eventually be recognized as the model to how to have responded to Covid. There is a video someone else posted, on this thread, that helps a bit in understanding Sweden's approach. It is quite impressive that they figured all this out at the beginning. And had the guts to stick with it. Their approach was the only one that made ever made any sense considering the knowledge of this virus a few months ago.
  74. @Reg Cæsar

    the seating is more comfortable; i’ve got those $17 plastic aidrondacks from HomeDepot with lumber support (and some cushions for those who like ’em).
     
    The plastic has to be reinforced with wood? I'm not buying from Home Depot! IKEA's are all wood, and their cafeteria is better.

    Oh, speaking and as an appleknocker, I suggest Adirondack be capitalized and spelled correctly.

    The plastic has to be reinforced with wood?

    Edit fail! (My fingers often don’t write what my brain orders up. I need to get better with the edit.)

    But yeah, i like these Adirondacks with lumbar support. Sitting in one now in my living room. (AnotherMom made a nice muted color cushion for it and i’ve got some of those furniture moving coasters so it’s not digging into the carpet.)

    Cheap, light, comfortable. Winner!

  75. In general, we are going to need a lot more case studies like this.

    No, we are not.

    More case studies like this will only result in unbearable costs, bureaucratic paralysis, and a whole lot of spurious conclusions based on the illusory degree of precision and accuracy they foster, meanwhile more businesses tank, more livelihoods are lost, and more power accrues to an objectionable species of apparatchiks and busybodies.

    Is it your objective to replace the gender studies of the Left with your own equally useless cargo cult of meaningless data manipulation? Did the hierophants of intersectionality draw your ire not because they were wrong but because they were competing with you in the limited market of occultic nonsense peddling?

    In the real world, the airflow through a restaurant is just one among ten thousand other daily incidental nuances that no one either can or desires to control. Ordinary human life is not measured by such things; it’s just background noise. The needless exaggeration of the importance of such trivialities is a symptom of overdeveloped nerves and jaded intellects with nothing to apply themselves to. It is very much a symptom of First World decline.

    • Thanks: moshe
    • Replies: @MikeatMikedotMike
    Well said.
  76. @anonymous

    Nobody caught the Coronavirus in our parks or playing golf , yet these outdoor places are shutdown here while liquor stores remain open.
     
    I would LOVE to see liquor stores closed, because I like the idea of a ginormous number of people realizing their alcoholics, all at the same fucking time. And then acting out like animals in public. All the screaming, crying, and the beatings! Wow. All the senseless beating across America by and for america's elite. Imagine the Kardashians beating the holy shit out of each other.

    It would be the greatest event of my lifetime, aside from Trump getting elected.

    I would LOVE to see liquor stores closed, because I like the idea of a ginormous number of people realizing their alcoholics …

    You close the liquor stores, you’ll suddenly have a real issue with the lockdown!

    Heck, my bottle of SouthernComfort covid-19 gargle is running low.

    I’d go stock up … but even our politicians aren’t that stupid.

    One thing it would do is give the good ol’ boys some employment.

    • Replies: @anon
    yes, SC is at least drinkable-- Listerine undrinkable.
  77. @J.Ross
    Is there an existing machine we can tack onto an elevator roof to make it significantly safer, like an air curtain dividing the elevator cabin into slots?

    I’d already been thinking about every building entrance someday having some kind of decontamination zone or chamber, perhaps with potent UV light or some imperceptible but miraculous misting. Elevators would be perfect for this too if it could be perfected. Or do we just add plexiglass compartments, or make every elevator ride single-occupancy?

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    [animated gif from the ballcupping scene in Andromena Strain]
    "Dammit. Forgot my glasses."
  78. @Sean
    To get it upwind of him I think he must have coughed at least once. Public coughing is going to be have to be outlawed before shops, bars and restaurants can reopen. Even outdoors coughing is going to have to be forbidden. Spitting too. Laughter is a difficult one

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGbe5qy5274

    Did they really get it “upwind”, or did the A/C unit intake suck it up downwind and then recirculate it immediately in front of their table?

  79. @Buzz Mohawk
    As I said,

    ... what we need is a cost-benefit analysis of how we are destroying our world for this. Why don’t we see that here?

    Aren't MBAs supposed to be good at this stuff?

    “… what we need is a cost-benefit analysis of how we are destroying our world for this. Why don’t we see that here?”

    Yep, there is no cost/benefit at all. We are basically destroying the economy, enriching the 1% and impoverishing the middle class for the sake of a virus that has yet to show that it is a bigger threat than preventable medical error.

    In WW1, millions of people died for the sake of empires. We had no problem sacrificing generations of young men to die for no good reason whatsoever, and now we are willing to burn the economy to prevent a few fatties and old fogies from dying.

    No one that I am aware of has modeled the impact of impoverishment, isolation, lack of access to social services (etc etc) and balanced it out with the deaths from this overblown viral threat. None. It’s a shameful display of complete and utter incompetence on the part of policy makers.

    The health care system trades off lives for dollars all the time. Canada and the UK, for instance, have limited health care budgets so health care administrators have to draft policies that allocate resources wisely. Sparing no expense to save 103 year olds is a really really bad policy for obvious reasons. Killing an economy to keep fatties and fogies alive is likewise stupid.

    The fact that governments are so lax and unprepared to model these scenarios is shocking. Utterly shocking. One of my research fields is critical infrastructure protection, and I am appalled that the idiots in power don’t have better decision support.

    • Agree: leterip
    • Replies: @Anonymous

    One of my research fields is critical infrastructure protection, and I am appalled that the idiots in power don’t have better decision support.
     
    What exactly is “decision support”?
    , @Jack D

    Sparing no expense to save 103 year olds is a really really bad policy for obvious reasons.
     
    And yet this is done in the US all the time. Doctors are not permitted to refuse any treatment just because you are "too old". Both the Left and the religious Right consider human life to be literally "priceless" each for its own reasons so any attempt to balance cost with benefit in health care spending is seen as something that only a Nazi would do.

    What we have in the US is the feminization of of decision making. Cost/benefit spreadsheets are cold and masculine - they reduce human beings to numbers. A photo of a sick child in the hospital with Covid-19 (never mind that there are only a few and they already have some pre-existing fatal condition) is warm. Warm beats cold. Will you really let Johnny (or better yet, Tamiqua) die to save your 4o1(k), you heartless monster?
  80. @The Alarmist
    Does this mean the Indians are screwed?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4BQ5BwrOFc

    What do Indians have to do with this ad?

  81. anon[370] • Disclaimer says:
    @Steve Sailer
    Sweden is getting notorious for not reporting weekend deaths until maybe the following Tuesday.

    I write my Taki's column Monday night. I've discovered that the Monday day stats tend to look pretty encouraging. But as I'm finishing up, the Tuesday in Europe stats start to come in and they look discouraging because they are getting a lot of Sunday numbers that got delayed.

    You have autocorrelation. The simple solution is to take a moving average. Another approach would be to take the statistic, deaths or confirmed cases or whatever, and apply use the date when symptoms first appeared or date when hospitalized or some earlier date associated with the the process.

    I saw some Chinese data where they plotted date the case was confirmed and then plotted the same data against first symptoms. The latter was nicely smoothed.

    But basically, with a time series and periodicity, you just have less information.

  82. Two thoughts:

    A. While it is uncertain as to the long-term effect on the restaurant business, post Wuhan flu, the reason many people eat out at restaurants isn’t simply due to convenience. You can nearly always get takeout or frozen/thawed food if you want to eat at home.

    But most people live in cities in smallish apartments, or even fairly crowded houses. When you live in close quarters sooner or later, especially on non working days/weekends, you need to “get out of the house.” As with bars (where you mainly drink, much more expensive than at home) you go out to create a new and larger space away from annoying family members/roommates, etc. Which is why there are so many more eateries/bars in densely populated big cities and in Europe, where living spaces are much smaller. Likewise nearly all of Asia. There in warm climes “street food” is also ubiquitous. In warm climates you eat outdoors at stalls or open air places.

    None of these psychological factors will disappear, a after a cooling down period, post flu pandemic.

    B. People are in nursing homes because they are normally old, frail and in need of regular medical attention of some kind. There is always a pretty high death rate, because other than hospices, it is where old, frail, sick people live (if not home). Many such people can’t live under home care by relatives. Nor can you merely shove them into parks with tents as someone suggested. You could do that, but they’d die quickly. Also, unless weather is ideal (sun, temperate, calm, insect free) outdoors is not often where you can live comfortably, park or not. Those who suggest this have never been camping outdoors, evidently. Or they merely want to kill off the elderly.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    They may be in need of regular medical attention, but that's not why they're in nursing homes. They are usually in nursing homes because they're not ambulatory beyond a limited level and they cannot take care of themselves - needing assistance with cooking, bathing, the toilet, or something else. Other problems include being too addled to remember a complicated medication regimen. Others get around OK, but don't know what year it is and do not recognize their family members. The business of nursing homes is nursing. There are physicians and physical therapists on staff, but they are a small corps next to the various levels of nursing.
  83. @Buzz Mohawk

    In general, we are going to need a lot more case studies like this.
     
    No. In general, we are going to have to stop freaking out about this.

    The same diagram could probably apply for a cold, another flu, or when somebody farts. And the consequences would be about the same.

    The mortality rate is low, and what we need is a cost-benefit analysis of how we are destroying our world for this. Why don't we see that here?

    So, did the tracing establish that the infected guy sneezed? Once. A lot? Coughed? Once, a lot? Or are we to assume he just spread the virus by breathing?

  84. @Hypnotoad666
    The problem is that when you infect someone at a Chinese restaurant, you feel like doing it again an hour later.

    Thanks. That’s the first time I’ve laughed hard at a comment on this subject in a few days. I needed that.

  85. @Jack D
    They both cause pneumonia but other than that, they could not be more different. Legionnaire's is bacterial, Covid is viral. Covid spreads mostly by person to person contact, Legionnaire's is mostly waterborne. Pretty much all infectious diseases, especially those that cause pneumonia, affect the most vulnerable members of the herd the most. Pneumonia used to be called "the old man's friend" because it would take old geezers out of their misery.

    That was in the days when death was considered to be something that came to all men. Now we know better and expect to live forever so it's a great tragedy even when incontinent Alzheimer's patients, who literally no longer know their ass from their elbow, die.

    Of course bacteria vs. virus but the list of symptoms does sound similar. Legionnaire spread is not person-to-person but waterborne as you say, but the tainted water could spread through AC systems. It was a real puzzle for a while and then in NYC I seem to recall the problem being traced to those old rooftop water tanks.

    • LOL: botazefa
    • Replies: @Kibernetika
    Somehow I have a very vivid, detailed memory of first hearing about the first known Legionnaires' disease outbreak back in 1976. We were driving to Jones Beach on Long Island, and WOR AM was reporting really wild stuff, such as victims' heads swelling enormously (perhaps that was the national network, not local news).

    In other words, wild claims because no one yet understood what was happening, and the media reporting trended hyperbolic. Visions of gargantuan, melon-like heads. First time I saw a picture of Jack Ma, I flashed back to 1976 and the Legionnaires' stuff.

    I escaped New York long ago, praise be to whomever, but am I the only dummy who found Steve's post title reminded of the Billy Joel song:

    https://youtu.be/okyI2MAe6Sc

    My family and I have a generations-long issue with Joel (full disclosure), but some of his music was catchy ;)

  86. @Muggles
    Two thoughts:

    A. While it is uncertain as to the long-term effect on the restaurant business, post Wuhan flu, the reason many people eat out at restaurants isn't simply due to convenience. You can nearly always get takeout or frozen/thawed food if you want to eat at home.

    But most people live in cities in smallish apartments, or even fairly crowded houses. When you live in close quarters sooner or later, especially on non working days/weekends, you need to "get out of the house." As with bars (where you mainly drink, much more expensive than at home) you go out to create a new and larger space away from annoying family members/roommates, etc. Which is why there are so many more eateries/bars in densely populated big cities and in Europe, where living spaces are much smaller. Likewise nearly all of Asia. There in warm climes "street food" is also ubiquitous. In warm climates you eat outdoors at stalls or open air places.

    None of these psychological factors will disappear, a after a cooling down period, post flu pandemic.

    B. People are in nursing homes because they are normally old, frail and in need of regular medical attention of some kind. There is always a pretty high death rate, because other than hospices, it is where old, frail, sick people live (if not home). Many such people can't live under home care by relatives. Nor can you merely shove them into parks with tents as someone suggested. You could do that, but they'd die quickly. Also, unless weather is ideal (sun, temperate, calm, insect free) outdoors is not often where you can live comfortably, park or not. Those who suggest this have never been camping outdoors, evidently. Or they merely want to kill off the elderly.

    They may be in need of regular medical attention, but that’s not why they’re in nursing homes. They are usually in nursing homes because they’re not ambulatory beyond a limited level and they cannot take care of themselves – needing assistance with cooking, bathing, the toilet, or something else. Other problems include being too addled to remember a complicated medication regimen. Others get around OK, but don’t know what year it is and do not recognize their family members. The business of nursing homes is nursing. There are physicians and physical therapists on staff, but they are a small corps next to the various levels of nursing.

    • Agree: Muggles
  87. Anonymous[403] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jim Bob Lassiter
    The economics of the restaurant business are by nature shaky in the best of economic and epidemiological times. The economics of the restaurant business from 2006 up to Covid 19 can only be described like the economics of so many other businesses-- a house of cards.

    Very little will ever be the same.

    The economics of the restaurant business are by nature shaky in the best of economic and epidemiological times. The economics of the restaurant business from 2006 up to Covid 19 can only be described like the economics of so many other businesses– a house of cards.

    Very little will ever be the same.

    What do you predict is going to happen?

    • Replies: @Jim Bob Lassiter
    That would require me to write a novel and I'm just not up to the task.
  88. @dearieme
    How do you propose to deal with people who were shedding virus before they showed any symptoms, or indeed were shedding virus and never did show any symptoms? I doubt that anything much can be done about the latter, who may be about 50% of those infected. About the former; who the devil knows who he shared a bus with five days earlier? Who can remember exactly which bus he caught? Who else who might have been aboard a candidate bus can remember? "Test and quarantine" might well be helpful. It might delay problems by a useful amount. But otherwise it's a panacea, in the ironic sense of that term.

    It seems to me that the successful nations - S Korea, Taiwan, Singapore (at least until a few days ago) - used a powerful clue; they started with people who had just arrived from China and specifically from Wuhan. (Observe: those are unwoke countries and presumably give not a stuff about bogus accusations of racism.)

    But as the example of Singapore may show - and the resurgence of cases in China may show - there may be no stopping this ruddy thing for long.

    It might be wise to apply some calm, critical thought to how best to protect the people who are unusually vulnerable. It might be wise to try to buy time by practising social distancing, hand-washing, quarantining, and whatnot. But unless someone stumbles across a successful treatment, or a useful vaccine is developed, it might be wise to accept that long term we are in the soup. Just like the bats.

    Many people live their life by routine. They take the same bus to work every day. These people would know exactly which bus they used. Others would have a general idea of when they used a bus, which could be used by investigators to come up with a short list of buses he might have used.

    This has got me thinking about New York though. Like many parts of Asia, New York has a robust, widely used public transportation system. Most of the US is not like that at all. We like our cars. You can’t pass on the virus to strangers while you are driving to work by yourself in your car, but you can certainly do so when you take a bus or subway back and forth each day.

    Thing is, South Korea also has a strong public transportation system, especially Seoul where about half the population lives. It is testament to their efficiency that they were able to get on top of this.

  89. Anonymous[403] • Disclaimer says:
    @jbwilson24
    "… what we need is a cost-benefit analysis of how we are destroying our world for this. Why don’t we see that here?"

    Yep, there is no cost/benefit at all. We are basically destroying the economy, enriching the 1% and impoverishing the middle class for the sake of a virus that has yet to show that it is a bigger threat than preventable medical error.

    In WW1, millions of people died for the sake of empires. We had no problem sacrificing generations of young men to die for no good reason whatsoever, and now we are willing to burn the economy to prevent a few fatties and old fogies from dying.

    No one that I am aware of has modeled the impact of impoverishment, isolation, lack of access to social services (etc etc) and balanced it out with the deaths from this overblown viral threat. None. It's a shameful display of complete and utter incompetence on the part of policy makers.

    The health care system trades off lives for dollars all the time. Canada and the UK, for instance, have limited health care budgets so health care administrators have to draft policies that allocate resources wisely. Sparing no expense to save 103 year olds is a really really bad policy for obvious reasons. Killing an economy to keep fatties and fogies alive is likewise stupid.

    The fact that governments are so lax and unprepared to model these scenarios is shocking. Utterly shocking. One of my research fields is critical infrastructure protection, and I am appalled that the idiots in power don't have better decision support.

    One of my research fields is critical infrastructure protection, and I am appalled that the idiots in power don’t have better decision support.

    What exactly is “decision support”?

  90. @peterike

    “Hot pot” restaurant meals, in while diners dangle their food in a communal bowl of broth to cook it, are very popular in Asia.

     

    They opened one of those near me (closed now of course). I had no interest to begin with since I don't really care about Chinese food. But when I looked at the menu and saw that it included both live frogs and live eels -- presumably to be tossed into the boiling broth -- I was never going to give them a dime.

    “live frogs and live eels — presumably to be tossed into the boiling broth”

    Where in God’s name do you live?

    • Replies: @peterike

    Where in God’s name do you live?

     

    New York City. There's an awful lot of China here.

    Speaking of, my normally very Chinese high-rise feels very empty. There are still young Chinese living here, but clearly many have decamped. I wonder how many empty apartments there are?

    Also, at the street level, I'd say mask compliance is about 90%+. Everybody is wearing masks. Well, they are required to get into the grocery store, but people are wearing them just walking around outdoors. The exception? Blacks, of course.
  91. @AnotherDad

    I would LOVE to see liquor stores closed, because I like the idea of a ginormous number of people realizing their alcoholics ...
     
    You close the liquor stores, you'll suddenly have a real issue with the lockdown!

    Heck, my bottle of SouthernComfort covid-19 gargle is running low.

    I'd go stock up ... but even our politicians aren't that stupid.

    One thing it would do is give the good ol' boys some employment.

    yes, SC is at least drinkable– Listerine undrinkable.

  92. @The Alarmist
    https://youtu.be/bfN2JWifLCY


    Bullets from UnHerd:


    UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based

    The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only

    This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”

    The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better

    The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact

    The paper was very much too pessimistic

    Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway

    The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown

    The results will eventually be similar for all countries

    Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.

    The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%

    At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available


     

    Very good podcast. Very highly recommended. Sweden has the secret sauce. Which is focusing on on isolating/protecting the vulnerable and let everybody else get sick and therefore not unduly damage the economy. One part, perhaps most significant, mentioned in the video is how much focus Sweden has on keeping nursing homes safe. There is new Massachusetts data that their nursing homes are astoundingly infected and account for well over 50% of Covid deaths.

    https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-dashboard-april-20-2020/download

    • Replies: @Jack D
    This is the sad thing about our Wuhan Virus response. Not only have we needlessly destroyed the entire economy and educational system in a futile effort to stem the virus, we haven't done those simple things that would ACTUALLY stem the virus such as properly managing our nursing homes (which are barely under control on a good day) and forcing non-compliant groups like blacks and Hasidic Jews to modify their behavior. Not to mention putting the whole goddamn country on a diet so that obesity and diabetes is no longer rampant. This is not impossible - all we need to do is to get body masses back to 1960 levels. This was not so long ago. Instead we SUBSIDIZE obesity with food stamps. We pay billions to fatten the bottom line of ADM and destroy the public health and everyone is totally cool with it.

    Basically, our society is to far gone to mount an effective campaign to do ANYTHING. Everything gets mired in the race/class/gender/ affirmative action/regulatory capture by billionaires morass. It would be sad if this disease is really the tipping point for our society but I guess it had to come sooner or later on the path that we were on.
  93. @utu
    "The Chinese quarantined all 73 diners in that room"- This is how to do it. Trace all contacts with the infected and locate them up.

    Coming soon to a “free” country near you!

  94. @Known Fact
    I'd already been thinking about every building entrance someday having some kind of decontamination zone or chamber, perhaps with potent UV light or some imperceptible but miraculous misting. Elevators would be perfect for this too if it could be perfected. Or do we just add plexiglass compartments, or make every elevator ride single-occupancy?

    [animated gif from the ballcupping scene in Andromena Strain]
    “Dammit. Forgot my glasses.”

  95. So, basically, you need a machine that would remove virus particles at each table by circulating air at that particular location.

    https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/JO-8201-Electrostatic-Precipitator-Clean-Air_1261456021.html?spm=a2700.7724857.normalList.28.2bf0c0c9usLn08

  96. @J.Ross
    https://www.twitter.com/tariqnasheed/status/1252442488238833667

    You don’t seem like a bad guy but you did catch a bad case of Da Jooz. I doubt there’s any rememdy for someone whose been on the missionizing end of this for so long but maybe a new diagram from Chinese Resteraunts can illuminate fir you where the germs are coming from.

    Good luck, I’m sorry that you’re sick and wish you a speedy recovery.

  97. @Paco Wové
    "live frogs and live eels — presumably to be tossed into the boiling broth"

    Where in God's name do you live?

    Where in God’s name do you live?

    New York City. There’s an awful lot of China here.

    Speaking of, my normally very Chinese high-rise feels very empty. There are still young Chinese living here, but clearly many have decamped. I wonder how many empty apartments there are?

    Also, at the street level, I’d say mask compliance is about 90%+. Everybody is wearing masks. Well, they are required to get into the grocery store, but people are wearing them just walking around outdoors. The exception? Blacks, of course.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    The exception? Blacks, of course.
     
    I see a lot of blacks wearing masks. But they seem to be have a disproportionately high number of violators of social distancing etiquette.
  98. @Andy
    Sweden has done quite badly in comparison to its neighbors Denmark, Norway and Finland. Look at the deaths per capita (175 vs 64, 34 and 25). The cases per capita also look bad but less so since the Swedes tried to hid the disease by doing few tests.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Like the Prof. said, let’s look at the numbers this time next year. All we’ve done is dragged out our misery.

    • Replies: @Andy
    Fine, but it seems Sweden will end up with a lot of unnecessary deaths in regards to its neighbors, and the professor will have a lot of explaining to do to Swedish citizens. By the way, in the interview he seems either incredibly arrogant or incredibly deluded - for example, against all evidence, he insists restrictions on travel have no impact on the spread of the virus
  99. @AnotherDad
    The Swedish experiment has been exceedingly ho-hum.

    The cyclic aspect is just bureaucracy, getting deaths reported during office hours.

    Overall Sweden has pretty much tracked the US experience. Same deaths per thousand. With actually fewer "cases"--but that's likely just less testing. Quite a bit worse than their Scandi neighbors.

    https://coronavirusgraphs.com/?c=ddm&y=linear&t=line&f=0&ct=&co=2,67,221

    If Sweden is held up by lockdown opponents, i don't think it makes the case they hope. The government hasn't bossed people around as much. But people make their own decisions to be more circumspect.

    If your concern is "tyranny!"--and some of the abject stupidity we've had here, like closing parks and beaches--then fine. (And i agree.)

    But if it's the claim that everything would be just fine if the politicians hadn't started preening? Then no. People in Sweden made their own decisions to dial it back. So it is not "life goes on".

    ~~

    The nation that looks good on this whole thing is Czechia where they--wisely--masked up. They are doing much better than their Western neighbors and their curve really has been squashed. (A respiratory disease and masks help? Who could imagine that?)

    Patriotic Hungary and Poland are doing well too, but they had a much later start, so it's hard to make a direct comparison.

    I disagree that the Swedish experience is “ho-hum”. In a very short while, they will have achieved herd immunity with remarkably low IFR. Their secret sauce is not their not social distancing policies or their compliant population as much as Sweden’s very early priority on protecting the most vulnerable especially those in nursing homes. I

    t is pretty clear that they will eventually be recognized as the model to how to have responded to Covid. There is a video someone else posted, on this thread, that helps a bit in understanding Sweden’s approach. It is quite impressive that they figured all this out at the beginning. And had the guts to stick with it. Their approach was the only one that made ever made any sense considering the knowledge of this virus a few months ago.

    • Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    New York and New Jersey have taken the opposite approach , forcing nursing homes to accept CV patients.... and doing nothing to protect the elderly in long term care facilities. 40% of the deaths in NJ are nursing home residents.
  100. @B36
    And what did the fortune cookies say?

  101. @RichardTaylor
    Baby Boomers get obsessed over every little detail that affects their lives. So, we get endless discussions like this about a little virus that didn't lill as many as the flu. Meanwhile, White children are now minority status in their own country.

    If Boomers, as a generation, had any honor, they would save the passion helping future Whites. They would lead the charge to make changes, like getting rid of "civil rights" and Nixon's affirmative action.

    But that would take moral courage. And the Drama Queen Boomers would rather bleat about how their pathetic ass might be affected by a bug.

    My advice to young White people: You don't owe these people anything.

    I disagree completely. They don’t owe you or your theoretical white great great grandchildren anything.

    They exoected sxience to solve dying for them and now they’re told that they may nit even make it to 80. So they use the power that they have (which is a plurality of it) to enforce draconian measures for their own protection.

    Why shouldn’t they?

    What the hell do they owe YOU?

  102. @Anonymous

    The economics of the restaurant business are by nature shaky in the best of economic and epidemiological times. The economics of the restaurant business from 2006 up to Covid 19 can only be described like the economics of so many other businesses– a house of cards.

    Very little will ever be the same.
     
    What do you predict is going to happen?

    That would require me to write a novel and I’m just not up to the task.

  103. GermanReader2 [AKA "GermanReader2_new"] says:
    @TomSchmidt
    The Contact tracing ship sailed in the USA a long time ago. Maybe with the enormously expensive and disruptive lockdown we have arrived at the point that it can again be pursued. Even in NYC in pretty short order.

    Of course, even if we extinguish the virus in the USA entirely (and I doubt that, though universal masking ought to get us closer to there), we will remain vulnerable to any place in the world that it still exists. If we do manage to extinguish it, then we will need the contact tracers for future inmigrants who have it.

    Not even just immigrants. I see tourists and illegal aliens as the much bigger problem.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    I had tried to use the too-cute-by-half word "in migrants" to coverall. But given that the virus has escaped and established itself around the world, what is the only realistic possibility? You either shut down all cross-border travel until it's cured everywhere, or you bite the bullet and let the virus run through the people.
  104. @Buzz Mohawk

    In general, we are going to need a lot more case studies like this.
     
    No. In general, we are going to have to stop freaking out about this.

    The same diagram could probably apply for a cold, another flu, or when somebody farts. And the consequences would be about the same.

    The mortality rate is low, and what we need is a cost-benefit analysis of how we are destroying our world for this. Why don't we see that here?

    A cost-benefit analysis in every single post about COVID-19 isn’t “what we need”, it’s what you want in order to feel better about your inability to cope with temporary lifestyle changes and incessant demands that all controls be immediately lifted so you can go return to your routine of hollow overconsumption fueled by Chinese slave labor. Morbidly obese people cry about the same theoretical-but-not-actual cost-benefit analysis when they’re told they need to lose weight to even be able to get life-saving surgery. Cut down on French fries and Pepsi? The cure is worse than the disease! It’s the same damn thing.

    To you and to others like you, even getting the information needed to do a cost-benefit analysis requires a cost-benefit analysis. Bro, you need a CBA for that CBA! It’s no different from the usual leftist tactic of derailing discussions and invoking bureaucracy to impede any serious efforts to solve the problem. And like the typical SJW, you couch your arguments in rhetoric that is supposed to sound like it’s serving the common good (“destroying our world!”) but doesn’t represent the opinions or beliefs of most of those you claim to represent.

    People aren’t going to go to work if they perceive a significant risk of dying from this thing, and they definitely aren’t going to go to work if they’re sick – nor should they. If you actually understood the concept of a cost-benefit analysis, as opposed to merely using the phrase as a tool to bludgeon anyone who thinks the disease should be contained, you’d realize that most of the “cost” comes from individuals and families making rational decisions to protect themselves and their families, not the hamfisted government lockdowns that aren’t even being enforced and certainly not the scientific studies that useful people are trying to do.

    • Replies: @Semperluctor
    This argument does not address the assertion made by Buzz M., and it is not internally consistent. People who want the country to reopen, on the well founded suspicion that the mortality data were wrong from the start, are not pathetic consumers who want to go back to consuming Chinese junk. They just want to work. The employees at my firm make more than combined State and Fed emergency UI, so they have a rational interest in going back to work. Most of them have young families, I am the oldest there by far, and they have zero interest in dying for the Dow.
    But, and here is the kicker: 650,000 Americans keel over every year from heart disease, and nobody bans Cheetos, giant slurpies, triple Big Macs, etc. If herd immunity = 160m infected, and that takes two waves, and mortality rate is, as the data now increasingly support, about 0.1%, that’s 160,000 deaths in both waves. Waves 1 and 2 combined will be about one quarter of a normal year of heart disease and stroke carnage. We will have destroyed the employment prospects of perhaps 10 million people for a decade... 22 million new unemployed, about 40 percent of whom will struggle to get their full time jobs back. The total death rate over 10 years, from suicides, opioid accidents, and reduced health care availability (courtesy of shuttered hospitals) will dwarf waves 1 and 2 of Covid 19. This is simply madness. I have noticed that the most strident voices arguing for continued lockdowns are not receptive to reasoned arguments; they engage in ad hominem attacks and take counter factuals as attacks on their identity. Unfortunately, on a different scale, our elites, on both sides of the aisle, are doing the same thing. I think that the only thing that will save us are 200 million antibody tests. Those will settle the questions of total death rates and ‘Did Sweden get it right or wrong?’. Until then, could we please have reasoned arguments, and not emotive and unsupported assertions?
  105. @education realist
    Ignoring tables E and F, where no one got infected, is what makes the whole exercise ridiculous.

    It’s good that your career doesn’t rely on your gleaning information from real world data.

    No one is saying this is clear evidence of anything. It’s suggestive. Half a dozen cases like this could demonstrate some relationship. We don’t know.

    • Replies: @education realist
    First off, I didn't say anything about "clear evidence". I was, however, observing that what Steve said: "Lessons: it’s somewhat more dangerous to be downwind than upwind, but spread can happen in both directions."

    Seemed rather accepting.

    Sorry you couldn't understand the obvious.
    , @Anonymous

    No one is saying this is clear evidence of anything. It’s suggestive. Half a dozen cases like this could demonstrate some relationship. We don’t know.
     
    Steve treated a very questionable model, argument, and conclusion in a way that was credulous, or at least lacking in appropriate qualification.

    Why did the individual seated upwind at C2 get sick just three days after the meal and before any of the table mates of A1 got sick?

    It’s all very suspect.
  106. @peterike

    “Hot pot” restaurant meals, in while diners dangle their food in a communal bowl of broth to cook it, are very popular in Asia.

     

    They opened one of those near me (closed now of course). I had no interest to begin with since I don't really care about Chinese food. But when I looked at the menu and saw that it included both live frogs and live eels -- presumably to be tossed into the boiling broth -- I was never going to give them a dime.

    I partied in dark spaces packed to the walls and windows where the aerosal myst of the revelers was almost as thick as the sweat and drinks and weed smoke, and I also ate at a Chinese buffet, the very night before the workd decided to SHUT IT DOWN.

    The terror had been building for 6 weeks already but while I did what I could to make known to the oriental eacapees in my hostel that they were unwanted here sufficiently that they left. I had no proboem with joining all of the Orientals at the Chinese Buffet on account of the logical assumption that they all more or less lived here and were not recent refugees with buggies.

    As for partying, I gave up Eat-The-Mic karakoe a full two nights before the shutdown but was less concerned about parts-per-billion of Covid Saliva among the party people.

    I have no ethnic animosity towards Chinese restaurants that abide by the white man’s health standards, and only have a problem being around the chinese themselves when they are running from / carrying a plague.

    Part of the reason Covid spread is because we gave it attention.

    Telling everyone in Wuhan, and then Lombardy, and then Spain and then New York City — “ALL WHO REMAIN HERE WILL DIE!!!!” will encourage mwny of them to leave, no?

    If this disease arrived in 1977 q lot of people would have died in China and that would pretty much be it. There wouldn’t have been enough carries with major viral loads to make it here, and if it did make it here it probably wouldn’t even have gotten any publicity at all beyond “bad cold season, especially for old people, so don’t kiss your grandkids until Spring”.

  107. @Travis
    at least 25% of CV deaths are linked to nursing home facilities...They need to shut them all down to stop the spread....but instead they are sending COVID 19 patients into the nursing homes to infect the elderly...almost seems like part of the plan to increase deaths and further the panic.

    New York’s health commissioner on Monday defended a directive that requires nursing homes to readmit residents who’ve tested positive for the coronavirus

    The largest states are ordering nursing homes to accept infected patients who are still recovering from COVID-19. "The question is, should we be forced to introduce a disease with such deadly potential into a population that has been sheltered?"

    Also, it won't even help overcrowded hospitals, says Dr. Wasserman "If you push folks out of the hospitals to make space and you push them into nursing homes a couple weeks later,....for every one of those you send to the nursing home, you may get 20 back in the hospital." https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/20/832034662/discharging-covid-19-patients-to-nursing-homes-called-a-recipe-for-disaster

    Inside nursing homes, coronavirus brings isolation and over 7,300 deaths. The actual count is far higher, advocates for seniors believe, because the available data only covers 19 states where governors' offices and state departments of health have kept track. Most states do not yet report this data and did not reply to requests for this information. https://abcnews.go.com/Health/inside-nursing-homes-coronavirus-brings-isolation-7300-deaths/story?id=70225836

    +1

    What percentage of cases and deaths actually were from nursing homes?

    If a quarter of them were then HOLY F, the point I’ve been making for months is even truer than I could have ever imagined:

    Quarantine the elderly and sick AND THEIR CARERS as air-tight from contagion as possible and let everyone else who isn’t remotely ill go about their day (though quarantine the remotely ill of any age).

    Where do you quarantine the elderly with carers – incluring a couple of full time doctors, nurses, receptionists and people who know how to order groceries online??? Uh, isn’t that what nursing homes are supposed to be?

    The problem isn’t nursing homes. Nursing homes are the solution. Those nursing homes that offered up half of their residents to the angel of death ought to be investigated and brought up on criminal charges.

    They had a community of people who were the LEAST LIKELY to catch the bug and yet,,,, — that’s a sign if Gross Negligence.

    And locking up billions of normal folk if so so many of the dead were due only to this exact form of Gross Negligence would have been okay if we were told the truth but they lied to us.

    Or did they?

    Even at this late hour in the game I still don’t know the true answer to the questions I posed at the opening of this comment:

    What percentage of the Covid Dead came from Nursing Homes?

  108. @The Germ Theory of Disease
    Contact tracing must be a real hoot in China...

    INVESTIGATOR: So, you say you were eating lunch in a crowded restaurant, and a man at the next table was coughing? Can you describe him?

    WITNESS: Yes, his name was Chang. He was short and slender, with straight black hair and brown eyes with epicanthic folds. He wore glasses.

    INVESTIGATOR: Hmm, short, black hair, brown eyes, glasses, named Chang... We'll be able to track him down in, oh, I'd say, about eleven thousand years.

    Chang paid with a phone app, so the Chinese government knows he was there. They could ask Chang who his guests were, but they probably took that info at the door when they did the temperature check.

  109. @jbwilson24
    "… what we need is a cost-benefit analysis of how we are destroying our world for this. Why don’t we see that here?"

    Yep, there is no cost/benefit at all. We are basically destroying the economy, enriching the 1% and impoverishing the middle class for the sake of a virus that has yet to show that it is a bigger threat than preventable medical error.

    In WW1, millions of people died for the sake of empires. We had no problem sacrificing generations of young men to die for no good reason whatsoever, and now we are willing to burn the economy to prevent a few fatties and old fogies from dying.

    No one that I am aware of has modeled the impact of impoverishment, isolation, lack of access to social services (etc etc) and balanced it out with the deaths from this overblown viral threat. None. It's a shameful display of complete and utter incompetence on the part of policy makers.

    The health care system trades off lives for dollars all the time. Canada and the UK, for instance, have limited health care budgets so health care administrators have to draft policies that allocate resources wisely. Sparing no expense to save 103 year olds is a really really bad policy for obvious reasons. Killing an economy to keep fatties and fogies alive is likewise stupid.

    The fact that governments are so lax and unprepared to model these scenarios is shocking. Utterly shocking. One of my research fields is critical infrastructure protection, and I am appalled that the idiots in power don't have better decision support.

    Sparing no expense to save 103 year olds is a really really bad policy for obvious reasons.

    And yet this is done in the US all the time. Doctors are not permitted to refuse any treatment just because you are “too old”. Both the Left and the religious Right consider human life to be literally “priceless” each for its own reasons so any attempt to balance cost with benefit in health care spending is seen as something that only a Nazi would do.

    What we have in the US is the feminization of of decision making. Cost/benefit spreadsheets are cold and masculine – they reduce human beings to numbers. A photo of a sick child in the hospital with Covid-19 (never mind that there are only a few and they already have some pre-existing fatal condition) is warm. Warm beats cold. Will you really let Johnny (or better yet, Tamiqua) die to save your 4o1(k), you heartless monster?

    • LOL: Johann Ricke
    • Replies: @Art Deco
    And yet this is done in the US all the time.

    What do you fancy your spreadsheet jockeys do, recommend tossing nursing home residents off the roof?

    Per capita expenditure on medical care hits its peak around age 70. Your octogenarians are champion consumers not of medical care but of nursing services.
    , @moshe
    What are you talking about?

    If the old person still wants to live then why should they be refused the treatment? Who says your blood is rather than his?

  110. @leterip
    Very good podcast. Very highly recommended. Sweden has the secret sauce. Which is focusing on on isolating/protecting the vulnerable and let everybody else get sick and therefore not unduly damage the economy. One part, perhaps most significant, mentioned in the video is how much focus Sweden has on keeping nursing homes safe. There is new Massachusetts data that their nursing homes are astoundingly infected and account for well over 50% of Covid deaths.

    https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-dashboard-april-20-2020/download

    This is the sad thing about our Wuhan Virus response. Not only have we needlessly destroyed the entire economy and educational system in a futile effort to stem the virus, we haven’t done those simple things that would ACTUALLY stem the virus such as properly managing our nursing homes (which are barely under control on a good day) and forcing non-compliant groups like blacks and Hasidic Jews to modify their behavior. Not to mention putting the whole goddamn country on a diet so that obesity and diabetes is no longer rampant. This is not impossible – all we need to do is to get body masses back to 1960 levels. This was not so long ago. Instead we SUBSIDIZE obesity with food stamps. We pay billions to fatten the bottom line of ADM and destroy the public health and everyone is totally cool with it.

    Basically, our society is to far gone to mount an effective campaign to do ANYTHING. Everything gets mired in the race/class/gender/ affirmative action/regulatory capture by billionaires morass. It would be sad if this disease is really the tipping point for our society but I guess it had to come sooner or later on the path that we were on.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    forcing non-compliant groups like blacks and Hasidic Jews

    I'm currently living in a town with 30,000 black residents. My estimate is that about 90% of them out on the street are in masks.
    , @Johann Ricke

    Instead we SUBSIDIZE obesity with food stamps.
     
    If food stamps were transitioned to cash payments, farmers would scream, as the indigent ate less, but our Medicaid expense would gradually shrink. But kids would really go hungry. Which is why we have food stamps in the first place - to make it difficult for morons to not buy food for their kids. The moron element has to be accounted for.
  111. @Jack D
    This is the sad thing about our Wuhan Virus response. Not only have we needlessly destroyed the entire economy and educational system in a futile effort to stem the virus, we haven't done those simple things that would ACTUALLY stem the virus such as properly managing our nursing homes (which are barely under control on a good day) and forcing non-compliant groups like blacks and Hasidic Jews to modify their behavior. Not to mention putting the whole goddamn country on a diet so that obesity and diabetes is no longer rampant. This is not impossible - all we need to do is to get body masses back to 1960 levels. This was not so long ago. Instead we SUBSIDIZE obesity with food stamps. We pay billions to fatten the bottom line of ADM and destroy the public health and everyone is totally cool with it.

    Basically, our society is to far gone to mount an effective campaign to do ANYTHING. Everything gets mired in the race/class/gender/ affirmative action/regulatory capture by billionaires morass. It would be sad if this disease is really the tipping point for our society but I guess it had to come sooner or later on the path that we were on.

    forcing non-compliant groups like blacks and Hasidic Jews

    I’m currently living in a town with 30,000 black residents. My estimate is that about 90% of them out on the street are in masks.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    What about the other 10%? Has any attempt been made to fine or arrest them? Do we have to let them go if they attempt to resist arrest because Black Lives Matter?
    , @Anonymous

    I’m currently living in a town with 30,000 black residents. My estimate is that about 90% of them out on the street are in masks.
     
    But do they social distance?
  112. @Jack D

    Sparing no expense to save 103 year olds is a really really bad policy for obvious reasons.
     
    And yet this is done in the US all the time. Doctors are not permitted to refuse any treatment just because you are "too old". Both the Left and the religious Right consider human life to be literally "priceless" each for its own reasons so any attempt to balance cost with benefit in health care spending is seen as something that only a Nazi would do.

    What we have in the US is the feminization of of decision making. Cost/benefit spreadsheets are cold and masculine - they reduce human beings to numbers. A photo of a sick child in the hospital with Covid-19 (never mind that there are only a few and they already have some pre-existing fatal condition) is warm. Warm beats cold. Will you really let Johnny (or better yet, Tamiqua) die to save your 4o1(k), you heartless monster?

    And yet this is done in the US all the time.

    What do you fancy your spreadsheet jockeys do, recommend tossing nursing home residents off the roof?

    Per capita expenditure on medical care hits its peak around age 70. Your octogenarians are champion consumers not of medical care but of nursing services.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    See, right away any mention of cost control is the same as murder.

    I recommend doing what they do in countries where they have decided not to devote their entire GDP to health care. Maybe if you are 95 we shouldn't give you that knee replacement even if the surgeon is in the market for a new boat.
  113. @Jack D

    Sparing no expense to save 103 year olds is a really really bad policy for obvious reasons.
     
    And yet this is done in the US all the time. Doctors are not permitted to refuse any treatment just because you are "too old". Both the Left and the religious Right consider human life to be literally "priceless" each for its own reasons so any attempt to balance cost with benefit in health care spending is seen as something that only a Nazi would do.

    What we have in the US is the feminization of of decision making. Cost/benefit spreadsheets are cold and masculine - they reduce human beings to numbers. A photo of a sick child in the hospital with Covid-19 (never mind that there are only a few and they already have some pre-existing fatal condition) is warm. Warm beats cold. Will you really let Johnny (or better yet, Tamiqua) die to save your 4o1(k), you heartless monster?

    What are you talking about?

    If the old person still wants to live then why should they be refused the treatment? Who says your blood is rather than his?

    • Replies: @Jack D
    It's not really a question of treatment, it's a question of whether others will PAY for your treatment. If you are 95 and want a knee replacement in the UK, the doctors from the NHS will tell you that you won't benefit and they won't perform it. Or they will put you on a list to get it in 5 years. If you have private insurance that covers this or want to pay out of pocket you can get any treatment you want right away but the taxpayers are not going to pay for your all you can eat unlimited health care.

    The problem in the US is that there is no one to say no. Everyone has a financial incentive to spend more and more - the patient doesn't care how much it will cost because he's not paying, the doctor makes money, the hospital makes money, the company that makes the knee replacements makes money, the insurance company just adds it to the premiums and raises everyone's rates next year or the government just adds it to our infinite budget deficit.
  114. @Art Deco
    And yet this is done in the US all the time.

    What do you fancy your spreadsheet jockeys do, recommend tossing nursing home residents off the roof?

    Per capita expenditure on medical care hits its peak around age 70. Your octogenarians are champion consumers not of medical care but of nursing services.

    See, right away any mention of cost control is the same as murder.

    I recommend doing what they do in countries where they have decided not to devote their entire GDP to health care. Maybe if you are 95 we shouldn’t give you that knee replacement even if the surgeon is in the market for a new boat.

    • Agree: 3g4me
    • Replies: @Art Deco
    See, right away any mention of cost control is the same as murder.

    You might try answering my question rather than striking attitudes.
  115. @The Germ Theory of Disease
    Contact tracing must be a real hoot in China...

    INVESTIGATOR: So, you say you were eating lunch in a crowded restaurant, and a man at the next table was coughing? Can you describe him?

    WITNESS: Yes, his name was Chang. He was short and slender, with straight black hair and brown eyes with epicanthic folds. He wore glasses.

    INVESTIGATOR: Hmm, short, black hair, brown eyes, glasses, named Chang... We'll be able to track him down in, oh, I'd say, about eleven thousand years.

    Fantastic!

    Thanks. That’s given me the best laugh for ages.

  116. @Art Deco
    forcing non-compliant groups like blacks and Hasidic Jews

    I'm currently living in a town with 30,000 black residents. My estimate is that about 90% of them out on the street are in masks.

    What about the other 10%? Has any attempt been made to fine or arrest them? Do we have to let them go if they attempt to resist arrest because Black Lives Matter?

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    It's amusing watch you dance around on the checkerboard.
  117. @Intelligent Dasein

    In general, we are going to need a lot more case studies like this.
     
    No, we are not.

    More case studies like this will only result in unbearable costs, bureaucratic paralysis, and a whole lot of spurious conclusions based on the illusory degree of precision and accuracy they foster, meanwhile more businesses tank, more livelihoods are lost, and more power accrues to an objectionable species of apparatchiks and busybodies.

    Is it your objective to replace the gender studies of the Left with your own equally useless cargo cult of meaningless data manipulation? Did the hierophants of intersectionality draw your ire not because they were wrong but because they were competing with you in the limited market of occultic nonsense peddling?

    In the real world, the airflow through a restaurant is just one among ten thousand other daily incidental nuances that no one either can or desires to control. Ordinary human life is not measured by such things; it's just background noise. The needless exaggeration of the importance of such trivialities is a symptom of overdeveloped nerves and jaded intellects with nothing to apply themselves to. It is very much a symptom of First World decline.

    Well said.

  118. @Art Deco
    forcing non-compliant groups like blacks and Hasidic Jews

    I'm currently living in a town with 30,000 black residents. My estimate is that about 90% of them out on the street are in masks.

    I’m currently living in a town with 30,000 black residents. My estimate is that about 90% of them out on the street are in masks.

    But do they social distance?

  119. @Jack D
    See, right away any mention of cost control is the same as murder.

    I recommend doing what they do in countries where they have decided not to devote their entire GDP to health care. Maybe if you are 95 we shouldn't give you that knee replacement even if the surgeon is in the market for a new boat.

    See, right away any mention of cost control is the same as murder.

    You might try answering my question rather than striking attitudes.

  120. @Jack D
    What about the other 10%? Has any attempt been made to fine or arrest them? Do we have to let them go if they attempt to resist arrest because Black Lives Matter?

    It’s amusing watch you dance around on the checkerboard.

  121. Chinese restaurants are bad for you! With or without covid-19!

  122. @David
    It's good that your career doesn't rely on your gleaning information from real world data.

    No one is saying this is clear evidence of anything. It's suggestive. Half a dozen cases like this could demonstrate some relationship. We don't know.

    First off, I didn’t say anything about “clear evidence”. I was, however, observing that what Steve said: “Lessons: it’s somewhat more dangerous to be downwind than upwind, but spread can happen in both directions.”

    Seemed rather accepting.

    Sorry you couldn’t understand the obvious.

  123. @leterip
    I disagree that the Swedish experience is "ho-hum". In a very short while, they will have achieved herd immunity with remarkably low IFR. Their secret sauce is not their not social distancing policies or their compliant population as much as Sweden's very early priority on protecting the most vulnerable especially those in nursing homes. I

    t is pretty clear that they will eventually be recognized as the model to how to have responded to Covid. There is a video someone else posted, on this thread, that helps a bit in understanding Sweden's approach. It is quite impressive that they figured all this out at the beginning. And had the guts to stick with it. Their approach was the only one that made ever made any sense considering the knowledge of this virus a few months ago.

    New York and New Jersey have taken the opposite approach , forcing nursing homes to accept CV patients…. and doing nothing to protect the elderly in long term care facilities. 40% of the deaths in NJ are nursing home residents.

  124. @GermanReader2
    Not even just immigrants. I see tourists and illegal aliens as the much bigger problem.

    I had tried to use the too-cute-by-half word “in migrants” to coverall. But given that the virus has escaped and established itself around the world, what is the only realistic possibility? You either shut down all cross-border travel until it’s cured everywhere, or you bite the bullet and let the virus run through the people.

  125. There are two diagrams in this NY Times article about the Chinese restaurant, the first of which shows the purported air flow. The dotted lines show the airflow which goes mostly back toward the air conditioners. I assume that the two, presumably separate, air conditioners are standard wall air conditioners, which have a grid below sucking in the hot air to be cooled down and blown across the room. If that’s so, then the air being sucked in has to come from somewhere, and it seems pretty reasonable to think it would come at least in part from the middle table.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/health/airflow-coronavirus-restaurants.html

    • Replies: @Jack D

    I assume that the two, presumably separate, air conditioners are standard wall air conditioners,
     
    Depends what you mean by "wall" air conditioner. American type THROUGH the wall (or window) types are not seen in China. Rather they have Japanese type mini split systems where the air handler is mounted (high) on the wall and the condenser is hung from the outside of the building with refrigerant lines connecting the two. They will install these even in high rise apartment buildings (the outside of almost every building is disfigured by dozens of condensers) and the service guys work on the outside units hundreds of feet in the air clinging from a ledge or balcony or lowered by a flimsy rope. OSHA would not approve.

    When I say Japanese type, they are really Chinese now. I haven't looked up the production but the Chinese must make 10x the # of mini splits than the Japanese nowadays. Even some of the Japanese mfrs. have factories in China.

    In any case they take in room air and recirculate it after token filtration.

  126. @candid_observer
    There are two diagrams in this NY Times article about the Chinese restaurant, the first of which shows the purported air flow. The dotted lines show the airflow which goes mostly back toward the air conditioners. I assume that the two, presumably separate, air conditioners are standard wall air conditioners, which have a grid below sucking in the hot air to be cooled down and blown across the room. If that's so, then the air being sucked in has to come from somewhere, and it seems pretty reasonable to think it would come at least in part from the middle table.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/health/airflow-coronavirus-restaurants.html

    I assume that the two, presumably separate, air conditioners are standard wall air conditioners,

    Depends what you mean by “wall” air conditioner. American type THROUGH the wall (or window) types are not seen in China. Rather they have Japanese type mini split systems where the air handler is mounted (high) on the wall and the condenser is hung from the outside of the building with refrigerant lines connecting the two. They will install these even in high rise apartment buildings (the outside of almost every building is disfigured by dozens of condensers) and the service guys work on the outside units hundreds of feet in the air clinging from a ledge or balcony or lowered by a flimsy rope. OSHA would not approve.

    When I say Japanese type, they are really Chinese now. I haven’t looked up the production but the Chinese must make 10x the # of mini splits than the Japanese nowadays. Even some of the Japanese mfrs. have factories in China.

    In any case they take in room air and recirculate it after token filtration.

  127. Anonymous[403] • Disclaimer says:
    @peterike

    Where in God’s name do you live?

     

    New York City. There's an awful lot of China here.

    Speaking of, my normally very Chinese high-rise feels very empty. There are still young Chinese living here, but clearly many have decamped. I wonder how many empty apartments there are?

    Also, at the street level, I'd say mask compliance is about 90%+. Everybody is wearing masks. Well, they are required to get into the grocery store, but people are wearing them just walking around outdoors. The exception? Blacks, of course.

    The exception? Blacks, of course.

    I see a lot of blacks wearing masks. But they seem to be have a disproportionately high number of violators of social distancing etiquette.

  128. Anonymous[403] • Disclaimer says:
    @David
    It's good that your career doesn't rely on your gleaning information from real world data.

    No one is saying this is clear evidence of anything. It's suggestive. Half a dozen cases like this could demonstrate some relationship. We don't know.

    No one is saying this is clear evidence of anything. It’s suggestive. Half a dozen cases like this could demonstrate some relationship. We don’t know.

    Steve treated a very questionable model, argument, and conclusion in a way that was credulous, or at least lacking in appropriate qualification.

    Why did the individual seated upwind at C2 get sick just three days after the meal and before any of the table mates of A1 got sick?

    It’s all very suspect.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    That's why, as I said, you need scores of similar case studies to figure out the overall odds for restaurants.

    This one took a lot of work and it's just one data point.

  129. @moshe
    What are you talking about?

    If the old person still wants to live then why should they be refused the treatment? Who says your blood is rather than his?

    It’s not really a question of treatment, it’s a question of whether others will PAY for your treatment. If you are 95 and want a knee replacement in the UK, the doctors from the NHS will tell you that you won’t benefit and they won’t perform it. Or they will put you on a list to get it in 5 years. If you have private insurance that covers this or want to pay out of pocket you can get any treatment you want right away but the taxpayers are not going to pay for your all you can eat unlimited health care.

    The problem in the US is that there is no one to say no. Everyone has a financial incentive to spend more and more – the patient doesn’t care how much it will cost because he’s not paying, the doctor makes money, the hospital makes money, the company that makes the knee replacements makes money, the insurance company just adds it to the premiums and raises everyone’s rates next year or the government just adds it to our infinite budget deficit.

    • Replies: @moshe
    I think we're getting heated over a big nothingburger.

    The US healthcare system exists as it does for the sake of billionaires overseas.

    Let China sell [insert billionaire's name here] the liver of some fellow executed for that purpose. The US healthcare system should cover the medical needs of all Americans as the healthcate system in every civilized nation does.

    Let's not red-herring the subject by discussing some fellow on death row getting genital reassignment or some emotional anecdote about something done badly by the national healthcare system of some other civilized natiob or other.

    We are NOT in any important "slippery slope" situation. We can Copy&Paste the healthcare system of Israel, Britain or Canada and have a better system than the one we have now for 95% of Americans.

    The uber-wealthy, insurance salesmen, malpractice attorneys and some other categories of people will comprise the 5% who are better off under the system we have now.

    This is VERY different from demanding that you stay indoors so that some fellow American somewhere feels better about having to quarentine because he himself is 95 and ought to.

    No country has taxed its citizens into poverty so that every grandpa can get a golden grill.

    The super wealthy of Latin America consider the average middle class European rich because he doesn't need to get from his home to the hospital in an armed convoy.

    The elderly deserve more respect than the the young. Babies are essentially human tadpoles but society not only cares for babies abandoned by parents but half of American society even cares for them still in utero.

    Old people have been out of the uterus for a while and I'm certain we both agree that Gross Gretchen from Sweden has it wrong when she says that they owe her something. She owes them.

    Anyway, like I said, I assume we mainly agree and you just got caught in a mis-speak some threads ago and have been following it down an increasingly narrow trail by accident. It happens to everyone.
  130. @AnotherDad
    No loss.

    Personal taste, i know. But Americans waste a huge amount of money "going out"--especially for a nation of people that on average have next to no savings.

    We almost never go out and have zero desire to do so. We have our friends and family over. Winter--fire up the fireplace. Nice weather--deck/patio.

    -- the company is better; you can listen and talk to your friends without the din from all the nitwits
    -- the food--if AnotherMom is cooking--is better; but even with simple fare, plenty good enough
    -- the seating is more comfortable; i've got those $17 plastic aidrondacks from HomeDepot with lumber support (and some cushions for those who like 'em).
    -- you can get up and move around as you like; talk to this person, then some other person
    -- you want another cold beer or margarita or glass of wine or whatever ... just go grab it--without getting robbed
    -- and when the tank is full ... the bathroom is nicer

    Blow off this twitchy nonsense and just invite your neighbors, friends, family over and enjoy life. Everything about it is better than "going out".

    I (used to) enjoy going out on weekends. It’s a form of entertainment. It helps that due to our ridiculous liquor laws many place in Philly are BYOB so you don’t get robbed. I understand why restaurants have to mark up food (more below) but it’s ridiculous if they charge you $36 for a $12 bottle of wine – all they do is open it.

    But I read that Americans BC (before Covid) ate 50% of their meals out of the home which was excessive and speaks of laziness. Generally speaking, in order for a restaurant to stay in business the menu prices must average out to 400% of the food cost (some items more, some less – e.g. McDonalds makes more on french fries and soda, less on hamburgers, fine dining restaurants make less on fish than they do on chicken) because they need the other 300% to pay for rent, labor, utilities, supplies, etc. When you eat at home, your rent/mortgage is paid anyway, your labor is free, etc. so aside from a few pennies worth of electricity or gas to cook the meal, your cost for the meal is going to be the food cost only, or less than 1/4 of what you would have spent in a restaurant (you don’t have tax and tip on top of the grocery cost to pay at home either).

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    The USDA estimated in 2012 that 34% of the caloric count people in this country consume consists of food-away-from-home. Food-away-from home includes institutional cafeterias.
    , @keuril

    I read that Americans BC (before Covid) ate 50% of their meals out of the home which was excessive and speaks of laziness
     
    What you are referring to is actually just the dollar share of meals (including tips), not the total number of meals or their caloric content. This was presented recently in a pretty striking (due to the fact that presentation was not to scale) graph in the WSJ, showing expenditures on food away from home rising from about 47% in 1995 to 54% in 2019, while expenditures on food at home declined over the same period from 53% to 46%. There is a clear trend toward food away from home, but once you realize it is talking about dollar share, not meal share or calorie share, it is not so shocking, given the huge markup on food away from home. In general I’d say it was a pretty misleading graph since it fooled even a lawyer like yourself.
  131. @Jack D
    It's not really a question of treatment, it's a question of whether others will PAY for your treatment. If you are 95 and want a knee replacement in the UK, the doctors from the NHS will tell you that you won't benefit and they won't perform it. Or they will put you on a list to get it in 5 years. If you have private insurance that covers this or want to pay out of pocket you can get any treatment you want right away but the taxpayers are not going to pay for your all you can eat unlimited health care.

    The problem in the US is that there is no one to say no. Everyone has a financial incentive to spend more and more - the patient doesn't care how much it will cost because he's not paying, the doctor makes money, the hospital makes money, the company that makes the knee replacements makes money, the insurance company just adds it to the premiums and raises everyone's rates next year or the government just adds it to our infinite budget deficit.

    I think we’re getting heated over a big nothingburger.

    The US healthcare system exists as it does for the sake of billionaires overseas.

    Let China sell [insert billionaire’s name here] the liver of some fellow executed for that purpose. The US healthcare system should cover the medical needs of all Americans as the healthcate system in every civilized nation does.

    Let’s not red-herring the subject by discussing some fellow on death row getting genital reassignment or some emotional anecdote about something done badly by the national healthcare system of some other civilized natiob or other.

    We are NOT in any important “slippery slope” situation. We can Copy&Paste the healthcare system of Israel, Britain or Canada and have a better system than the one we have now for 95% of Americans.

    The uber-wealthy, insurance salesmen, malpractice attorneys and some other categories of people will comprise the 5% who are better off under the system we have now.

    This is VERY different from demanding that you stay indoors so that some fellow American somewhere feels better about having to quarentine because he himself is 95 and ought to.

    No country has taxed its citizens into poverty so that every grandpa can get a golden grill.

    The super wealthy of Latin America consider the average middle class European rich because he doesn’t need to get from his home to the hospital in an armed convoy.

    The elderly deserve more respect than the the young. Babies are essentially human tadpoles but society not only cares for babies abandoned by parents but half of American society even cares for them still in utero.

    Old people have been out of the uterus for a while and I’m certain we both agree that Gross Gretchen from Sweden has it wrong when she says that they owe her something. She owes them.

    Anyway, like I said, I assume we mainly agree and you just got caught in a mis-speak some threads ago and have been following it down an increasingly narrow trail by accident. It happens to everyone.

  132. @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    Most New Yorkers did not contract the virus in restaurants. About half the deaths are among elderly nursing home residents. In New Jersey , Connecticut , Pennsylvania we now know that half the fatalities occurred in Nursing homes and long-term care facilities. These people have not eaten in a restaurant in years , nor have they taken a subway or gone to work in decades.

    The media hides the data , failing to report honestly because they started the panic and seek to extend the panic and economic catastrophe. Nobody caught the Coronavirus in our parks or playing golf , yet these outdoor places are shutdown here while liquor stores remain open. Thousand of New Yorkers died in nursing homes this week , yet the press ignores reality to pump up the panic narrative.

    To save lives we need to close all the nursing homes and get these elderly people to the parks... yet in New Jersey the governor forces the nursing homes to accept CV positive patients while keeping the parks closed.

    Subways open and parks closed are all you need to know about this. Every jumped up little Stalin in public office is living the dream right now. Look at the smacked asses driving around by themselves while wearing face masks.

  133. @Buzz Mohawk

    In general, we are going to need a lot more case studies like this.
     
    No. In general, we are going to have to stop freaking out about this.

    The same diagram could probably apply for a cold, another flu, or when somebody farts. And the consequences would be about the same.

    The mortality rate is low, and what we need is a cost-benefit analysis of how we are destroying our world for this. Why don't we see that here?

    Some of us do, Buzz, but we’re not the sort of folks who can make things happen.

  134. @Anonymous

    No one is saying this is clear evidence of anything. It’s suggestive. Half a dozen cases like this could demonstrate some relationship. We don’t know.
     
    Steve treated a very questionable model, argument, and conclusion in a way that was credulous, or at least lacking in appropriate qualification.

    Why did the individual seated upwind at C2 get sick just three days after the meal and before any of the table mates of A1 got sick?

    It’s all very suspect.

    That’s why, as I said, you need scores of similar case studies to figure out the overall odds for restaurants.

    This one took a lot of work and it’s just one data point.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Fair enough. Thanks for your reply.

    But I would just observe that the basic facts forming this data point may themselves be unreliable or incomplete. That would be an issue prior to the issues of drawing inferences about the mechanism of transmission in this particular case or about transmission in general.
    , @Anonymous
    By the way, Steve, I think you probably don’t know how important you are to people, and to the country. People sharing your posts outside of this forum, bonding over your sensible and loyal politics, your truth telling, your sense of humor, your inquisitiveness, or your cultural-historical-institutional memory.

    Fathers and sons, relatives, old friends, even new friends.

  135. @AnotherDad
    No loss.

    Personal taste, i know. But Americans waste a huge amount of money "going out"--especially for a nation of people that on average have next to no savings.

    We almost never go out and have zero desire to do so. We have our friends and family over. Winter--fire up the fireplace. Nice weather--deck/patio.

    -- the company is better; you can listen and talk to your friends without the din from all the nitwits
    -- the food--if AnotherMom is cooking--is better; but even with simple fare, plenty good enough
    -- the seating is more comfortable; i've got those $17 plastic aidrondacks from HomeDepot with lumber support (and some cushions for those who like 'em).
    -- you can get up and move around as you like; talk to this person, then some other person
    -- you want another cold beer or margarita or glass of wine or whatever ... just go grab it--without getting robbed
    -- and when the tank is full ... the bathroom is nicer

    Blow off this twitchy nonsense and just invite your neighbors, friends, family over and enjoy life. Everything about it is better than "going out".

    I guess that Mme B and I will just have to continue to go out until we get an invite to one of your does.

  136. @Jack D
    I (used to) enjoy going out on weekends. It's a form of entertainment. It helps that due to our ridiculous liquor laws many place in Philly are BYOB so you don't get robbed. I understand why restaurants have to mark up food (more below) but it's ridiculous if they charge you $36 for a $12 bottle of wine - all they do is open it.

    But I read that Americans BC (before Covid) ate 50% of their meals out of the home which was excessive and speaks of laziness. Generally speaking, in order for a restaurant to stay in business the menu prices must average out to 400% of the food cost (some items more, some less - e.g. McDonalds makes more on french fries and soda, less on hamburgers, fine dining restaurants make less on fish than they do on chicken) because they need the other 300% to pay for rent, labor, utilities, supplies, etc. When you eat at home, your rent/mortgage is paid anyway, your labor is free, etc. so aside from a few pennies worth of electricity or gas to cook the meal, your cost for the meal is going to be the food cost only, or less than 1/4 of what you would have spent in a restaurant (you don't have tax and tip on top of the grocery cost to pay at home either).

    The USDA estimated in 2012 that 34% of the caloric count people in this country consume consists of food-away-from-home. Food-away-from home includes institutional cafeterias.

    • Thanks: Johann Ricke
  137. @Hebrew National
    Other than that, how was the food?

    “Other than that, how was the food?”
    The Bat Wonton was delightful, the Kung Pao Rat splendid, and the Peking Roasted Cat exceptional.

  138. Anonymous[403] • Disclaimer says:
    @Steve Sailer
    That's why, as I said, you need scores of similar case studies to figure out the overall odds for restaurants.

    This one took a lot of work and it's just one data point.

    Fair enough. Thanks for your reply.

    But I would just observe that the basic facts forming this data point may themselves be unreliable or incomplete. That would be an issue prior to the issues of drawing inferences about the mechanism of transmission in this particular case or about transmission in general.

  139. @Michael S
    A cost-benefit analysis in every single post about COVID-19 isn't "what we need", it's what you want in order to feel better about your inability to cope with temporary lifestyle changes and incessant demands that all controls be immediately lifted so you can go return to your routine of hollow overconsumption fueled by Chinese slave labor. Morbidly obese people cry about the same theoretical-but-not-actual cost-benefit analysis when they're told they need to lose weight to even be able to get life-saving surgery. Cut down on French fries and Pepsi? The cure is worse than the disease! It's the same damn thing.

    To you and to others like you, even getting the information needed to do a cost-benefit analysis requires a cost-benefit analysis. Bro, you need a CBA for that CBA! It's no different from the usual leftist tactic of derailing discussions and invoking bureaucracy to impede any serious efforts to solve the problem. And like the typical SJW, you couch your arguments in rhetoric that is supposed to sound like it's serving the common good ("destroying our world!") but doesn't represent the opinions or beliefs of most of those you claim to represent.

    People aren't going to go to work if they perceive a significant risk of dying from this thing, and they definitely aren't going to go to work if they're sick - nor should they. If you actually understood the concept of a cost-benefit analysis, as opposed to merely using the phrase as a tool to bludgeon anyone who thinks the disease should be contained, you'd realize that most of the "cost" comes from individuals and families making rational decisions to protect themselves and their families, not the hamfisted government lockdowns that aren't even being enforced and certainly not the scientific studies that useful people are trying to do.

    This argument does not address the assertion made by Buzz M., and it is not internally consistent. People who want the country to reopen, on the well founded suspicion that the mortality data were wrong from the start, are not pathetic consumers who want to go back to consuming Chinese junk. They just want to work. The employees at my firm make more than combined State and Fed emergency UI, so they have a rational interest in going back to work. Most of them have young families, I am the oldest there by far, and they have zero interest in dying for the Dow.
    But, and here is the kicker: 650,000 Americans keel over every year from heart disease, and nobody bans Cheetos, giant slurpies, triple Big Macs, etc. If herd immunity = 160m infected, and that takes two waves, and mortality rate is, as the data now increasingly support, about 0.1%, that’s 160,000 deaths in both waves. Waves 1 and 2 combined will be about one quarter of a normal year of heart disease and stroke carnage. We will have destroyed the employment prospects of perhaps 10 million people for a decade… 22 million new unemployed, about 40 percent of whom will struggle to get their full time jobs back. The total death rate over 10 years, from suicides, opioid accidents, and reduced health care availability (courtesy of shuttered hospitals) will dwarf waves 1 and 2 of Covid 19. This is simply madness. I have noticed that the most strident voices arguing for continued lockdowns are not receptive to reasoned arguments; they engage in ad hominem attacks and take counter factuals as attacks on their identity. Unfortunately, on a different scale, our elites, on both sides of the aisle, are doing the same thing. I think that the only thing that will save us are 200 million antibody tests. Those will settle the questions of total death rates and ‘Did Sweden get it right or wrong?’. Until then, could we please have reasoned arguments, and not emotive and unsupported assertions?

    • Replies: @gabriel alberton

    Until then, could we please have reasoned arguments, and not emotive and unsupported assertions?
     
    I agree those don't help. Here are some examples of ''emotive, unsupported assertions'':

    If herd immunity = 160m infected, and that takes two waves, and mortality rate is, as the data now increasingly support, about 0.1%, that’s 160,000 deaths in both waves. Waves 1 and 2 combined will be about one quarter of a normal year of heart disease and stroke carnage.
     

    We will have destroyed the employment prospects of perhaps 10 million people for a decade… 22 million new unemployed, about 40 percent of whom will struggle to get their full time jobs back.
     

    The total death rate over 10 years, from suicides, opioid accidents, and reduced health care availability (courtesy of shuttered hospitals) will dwarf waves 1 and 2 of Covid 19.
     
    Also:

    Americans keel over every year from heart disease, and nobody bans Cheetos, giant slurpies, triple Big Macs, etc.
     
    Nobody? You sure? But as I was told, that is a ridiculous, dictatorial infringement on Americans' freedoms.

    Please never stop being internally consistent.

    , @Buzz Mohawk
    Thank you for writing the kind of reply I was too lazy to write. I just don't have the energy to reply to all of this. Maybe I am not getting enough oxygen.

    He missed my point completely, which you grasped.

    This isn't about me, or about anyone's personal inconvenience. My life hasn't changed much from this. My office has been a paneled room (not a closet!) in my house since 2009. I'm still walking four miles up and down hills every other day for exercise, sunshine and fresh air. (It's allowed here!) If I ever find that difficult, maybe then I will worry that I am not getting enough oxygen. My wife continues to do Pilates, yoga and the elliptical in the gym I created for her in another room.

    We're fine. It is the world that must function for all of us that I am worried about.

    I am in fact sitting back and kind of enjoying watching the world stop. My concern is not at all for myself, except for the possible economic destruction of my country, massive inflation-or-deflation, and for everyone and everything you wrote about. The costs of this craziness are incalculable. The future is now very uncertain. Millions may suffer who should not have. Our currency and our country's "full faith and credit" $$$ may explode or implode. Things really, truly might break down for a long time because of this foolishness.

    My comment days ago about my mother-in-law's death, regretfully unfair to Steve Sailer, was just a snapshot of how badly mistaken I think many influential people are right now. They have stopped the motor of the world. Now we know who John Galt is, only this time he is more of an anti-John Galt, and not at all a force for good.

  140. Anonymous[403] • Disclaimer says:
    @Steve Sailer
    That's why, as I said, you need scores of similar case studies to figure out the overall odds for restaurants.

    This one took a lot of work and it's just one data point.

    By the way, Steve, I think you probably don’t know how important you are to people, and to the country. People sharing your posts outside of this forum, bonding over your sensible and loyal politics, your truth telling, your sense of humor, your inquisitiveness, or your cultural-historical-institutional memory.

    Fathers and sons, relatives, old friends, even new friends.

    • Agree: moshe
  141. @Jack D
    I (used to) enjoy going out on weekends. It's a form of entertainment. It helps that due to our ridiculous liquor laws many place in Philly are BYOB so you don't get robbed. I understand why restaurants have to mark up food (more below) but it's ridiculous if they charge you $36 for a $12 bottle of wine - all they do is open it.

    But I read that Americans BC (before Covid) ate 50% of their meals out of the home which was excessive and speaks of laziness. Generally speaking, in order for a restaurant to stay in business the menu prices must average out to 400% of the food cost (some items more, some less - e.g. McDonalds makes more on french fries and soda, less on hamburgers, fine dining restaurants make less on fish than they do on chicken) because they need the other 300% to pay for rent, labor, utilities, supplies, etc. When you eat at home, your rent/mortgage is paid anyway, your labor is free, etc. so aside from a few pennies worth of electricity or gas to cook the meal, your cost for the meal is going to be the food cost only, or less than 1/4 of what you would have spent in a restaurant (you don't have tax and tip on top of the grocery cost to pay at home either).

    I read that Americans BC (before Covid) ate 50% of their meals out of the home which was excessive and speaks of laziness

    What you are referring to is actually just the dollar share of meals (including tips), not the total number of meals or their caloric content. This was presented recently in a pretty striking (due to the fact that presentation was not to scale) graph in the WSJ, showing expenditures on food away from home rising from about 47% in 1995 to 54% in 2019, while expenditures on food at home declined over the same period from 53% to 46%. There is a clear trend toward food away from home, but once you realize it is talking about dollar share, not meal share or calorie share, it is not so shocking, given the huge markup on food away from home. In general I’d say it was a pretty misleading graph since it fooled even a lawyer like yourself.

  142. It’s somewhat more dangerous to be downwind than upwind, but spread can happen in both directions.

    Lesson: Everyone should sit upwind from everyone else.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    It’s somewhat more dangerous to be downwind than upwind, but spread can happen in both directions.

    Lesson: Everyone should sit upwind from everyone else.
     
    This is not an airborne pathogen.
  143. @TiS
    Here is a low cost solution that could scale up quickly with only moderate inconvenience: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-Gn_vTyshE

    Some version of each customer having their own compartment should cut down a lot on infections across rooms. For even more effect those compartments could be washed between customers. The version in the video looks a little too small. But floor to ceiling variants shouldn't be much more expensive

    For group interaction there could be microphones and speakers in each compartment around a table.

    Same solution could work for any kind of business where face to face interaction is necessary or at least useful. For instance, if you go to the dentist there could be a ventilated glass box around your head and the dentist puts his hands through holes in the side.

    I’d like to see how this would work out at the Modern Toilet:

  144. @J.Ross
    https://www.twitter.com/tariqnasheed/status/1252442488238833667

    Whats the difference here?

    Whose lives Mayor DeBlasio thinks are worth saving.

  145. @J.Ross
    https://www.twitter.com/tariqnasheed/status/1252442488238833667

    If you find yourself in agreement with a someone named Tariq Nasheed you should question whether perhaps you might be wrong.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    Is Mr. Nasheed wrong or isn't he?
    , @J.Ross
    Tariq Nasheed is a deep cover friend like Tina Fey, notice how he sets up a huge rebuttal, ie, the National Guard.
  146. @candid_observer
    The airflow goes in two opposite directions with wall air conditioners -- the cool air blows out on top, but the grid below sucks in the hot air to recirculate it.

    So those in the line of such an air conditioner are both upwind and downwind from each other.

    Actually in split systems (what you usually see in China) it’ s usually upside down from this arrangement because they are intended to be mounted high on a wall – they suck warm air from the top and blow cold air out the bottom. But your point remains the same.

  147. @Travis
    at least 25% of CV deaths are linked to nursing home facilities...They need to shut them all down to stop the spread....but instead they are sending COVID 19 patients into the nursing homes to infect the elderly...almost seems like part of the plan to increase deaths and further the panic.

    New York’s health commissioner on Monday defended a directive that requires nursing homes to readmit residents who’ve tested positive for the coronavirus

    The largest states are ordering nursing homes to accept infected patients who are still recovering from COVID-19. "The question is, should we be forced to introduce a disease with such deadly potential into a population that has been sheltered?"

    Also, it won't even help overcrowded hospitals, says Dr. Wasserman "If you push folks out of the hospitals to make space and you push them into nursing homes a couple weeks later,....for every one of those you send to the nursing home, you may get 20 back in the hospital." https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/20/832034662/discharging-covid-19-patients-to-nursing-homes-called-a-recipe-for-disaster

    Inside nursing homes, coronavirus brings isolation and over 7,300 deaths. The actual count is far higher, advocates for seniors believe, because the available data only covers 19 states where governors' offices and state departments of health have kept track. Most states do not yet report this data and did not reply to requests for this information. https://abcnews.go.com/Health/inside-nursing-homes-coronavirus-brings-isolation-7300-deaths/story?id=70225836

    NYC also hasn’t shut down its subways.

    It’s almost as if the City and State of New York wanted to kill off a lot of its citizens.

  148. @Jack D
    If you find yourself in agreement with a someone named Tariq Nasheed you should question whether perhaps you might be wrong.

    Is Mr. Nasheed wrong or isn’t he?

    • Replies: @moshe
    Who knows? Who cares? If you think that Orthodox Jews praying in New York should be treated the same by the police as Blacks partying in New York then...draw tour own conclusion.
  149. @RichardTaylor
    Baby Boomers get obsessed over every little detail that affects their lives. So, we get endless discussions like this about a little virus that didn't lill as many as the flu. Meanwhile, White children are now minority status in their own country.

    If Boomers, as a generation, had any honor, they would save the passion helping future Whites. They would lead the charge to make changes, like getting rid of "civil rights" and Nixon's affirmative action.

    But that would take moral courage. And the Drama Queen Boomers would rather bleat about how their pathetic ass might be affected by a bug.

    My advice to young White people: You don't owe these people anything.

    Boomers are not covering themselves in glory. I think this will cement the contempt that younger generations have for them and usher in the Boomerdaemmerung.

    • Replies: @moshe
    "Younger Generations" may indeed come around to that POV, and not unfairly, but as I posted yesterday, these appear to have been the generational moods from circa February through last Thursday, or whenever the BenDavid study hit the news headlines.


    ✓ Over 75 = “Eh? Sounds dangerous and maybe this’ll be The Big One but I already know santa is fake and I aint afraid of no ghost”

    X 55-75 = “NO! When I was young I was assured that if not for the Cold War science would solve death! Or at least that we’d all live till over 110! I’M TOO YOUNG TO DIE! These punk millennials have been writing excitedly about my upcoming death because I’m supposedly racist? And they even dare laugh me down with their ‘Okay Boomer’ mockery from their circle jerk safe spaces? Go to your rooms! This is MY time for a safe space.”

    $£¥ 40-55 = “Eh? Sounds dangerous. Besides, uh, well this is all kinna confusing and I’m too old to be radical so I guess I’ll go along with the prevailing wisdom and guidelines, but methinks the boomers are acting a little embarassing for their age.”

    @ 30 – 40 = “Men. This is what we’ve been training for. We knew this day would come. Whether it’s information repeating, doomsday prepping or begging to be allowed to stay home until the dragon is vanquished, we are at one with our computer screens and we will fight and kill and many of us shall die in this brave battle like our grandparents did during World War Two.

    !!! 15-30 = “Brought to you by Carl’s Jr. Brought to you by Carl’s Jr. BROUGHT TO YOU BY CARL’S JR!”

    ?¿? 0- 15 = “Well this is different than when I was just a child way back last year. And kind of scary! Just another thing to throw into the complex algebra of dealing with teething, zits and family. I wonder if this is forever? Mom? Is this…eh, she’s not going to give me a syraight answer. Heck, none of the adults told me last year that THIS was even coming!”
  150. Anonymous[127] • Disclaimer says:
    @Sean
    https://youtu.be/cwPqmLoZA4s?t=776


    Highlights: Hospitals rather than hospitality were the superspreader institution in Italy, which has the oldest doctors and medical staff in the world. The official advice should be don't go to hospital unless you have something other that COVID-19. The true infection to death ratio for COVID-19 and the risk related to time spent driving. About NYC it is bad news.

    84% of the U.S. population lives in urban centers with multiple hospitals within 50 miles.

    In the future, instead of having Baptist, Methodist and Catholic hospitals offering almost the exact same services like McDonalds, Wendy’s and Burger King within the same city, they should have infectious hospitals and noninfectious hospitals.

    Because of ER’s some overlap could exist- as in if a coronary patient was in distress and happened to choose the infectious hospital, he would be treated because there would be no time to transfer him. However if a person came to the noninfectious ER with the sniffles- sorry, go down the road.

  151. @Mr. Anon
    Is Mr. Nasheed wrong or isn't he?

    Who knows? Who cares? If you think that Orthodox Jews praying in New York should be treated the same by the police as Blacks partying in New York then…draw tour own conclusion.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    They weren't "praying," the photographs from the calling-in of the National Guard show them partying outdoors. LIKE BLACK FOLK.
    , @Mr. Anon

    If you think that Orthodox Jews praying in New York should be treated the same by the police as Blacks partying in New York then…draw tour own conclusion.
     
    I think they should both be treated the same by the police. I think they should both be left alone.
    , @ploni almoni
    It's not Da Jooz. It's da Shwarzers.
  152. @Semperluctor
    This argument does not address the assertion made by Buzz M., and it is not internally consistent. People who want the country to reopen, on the well founded suspicion that the mortality data were wrong from the start, are not pathetic consumers who want to go back to consuming Chinese junk. They just want to work. The employees at my firm make more than combined State and Fed emergency UI, so they have a rational interest in going back to work. Most of them have young families, I am the oldest there by far, and they have zero interest in dying for the Dow.
    But, and here is the kicker: 650,000 Americans keel over every year from heart disease, and nobody bans Cheetos, giant slurpies, triple Big Macs, etc. If herd immunity = 160m infected, and that takes two waves, and mortality rate is, as the data now increasingly support, about 0.1%, that’s 160,000 deaths in both waves. Waves 1 and 2 combined will be about one quarter of a normal year of heart disease and stroke carnage. We will have destroyed the employment prospects of perhaps 10 million people for a decade... 22 million new unemployed, about 40 percent of whom will struggle to get their full time jobs back. The total death rate over 10 years, from suicides, opioid accidents, and reduced health care availability (courtesy of shuttered hospitals) will dwarf waves 1 and 2 of Covid 19. This is simply madness. I have noticed that the most strident voices arguing for continued lockdowns are not receptive to reasoned arguments; they engage in ad hominem attacks and take counter factuals as attacks on their identity. Unfortunately, on a different scale, our elites, on both sides of the aisle, are doing the same thing. I think that the only thing that will save us are 200 million antibody tests. Those will settle the questions of total death rates and ‘Did Sweden get it right or wrong?’. Until then, could we please have reasoned arguments, and not emotive and unsupported assertions?

    Until then, could we please have reasoned arguments, and not emotive and unsupported assertions?

    I agree those don’t help. Here are some examples of ”emotive, unsupported assertions”:

    If herd immunity = 160m infected, and that takes two waves, and mortality rate is, as the data now increasingly support, about 0.1%, that’s 160,000 deaths in both waves. Waves 1 and 2 combined will be about one quarter of a normal year of heart disease and stroke carnage.

    We will have destroyed the employment prospects of perhaps 10 million people for a decade… 22 million new unemployed, about 40 percent of whom will struggle to get their full time jobs back.

    The total death rate over 10 years, from suicides, opioid accidents, and reduced health care availability (courtesy of shuttered hospitals) will dwarf waves 1 and 2 of Covid 19.

    Also:

    Americans keel over every year from heart disease, and nobody bans Cheetos, giant slurpies, triple Big Macs, etc.

    Nobody? You sure? But as I was told, that is a ridiculous, dictatorial infringement on Americans’ freedoms.

    Please never stop being internally consistent.

    • Replies: @Semperluctor
    Huh?
    How is this an argument? This reply reduces down to “ I don’t understand you, and if I did, I anyhow disagree with you, so nah nah nah, you’re emotive”.
    Sigh.
    Next, Gabriel A. will write back that his Dad was bigger than mine.
    Lastly, the NY ban on giant slushees went nowhere. My points are all valid, which is why Gabriel’s response was ‘nah nah nah’. In general, we do not take harsh Covid type measures to prevent/control a 650k per year killer. For historical, cultural, and business reasons, Govt. stays clear.
    The data support the evolving hypothesis that the actual death rate is about 0.1 % or so. The whole point of reasoned arguments is that competing hypotheses can be examined, and those which do not work in the face of empirical data are abandoned. Someone else here mentioned, and this was very clever, that there seems to be a new religion of Quarantinism. Its adherents don’t take kindly to reason or to argument. Instead, it’s unpleasantness and dogmatism; public policy decisions based on Q. will destroy large swathes of the middle and working classes. Is that what the Quarantiners secretly hope for, an epic economic Gotterdammerung?
    If the data show me that I am wrong, I change my mind, and I am open to changing it.
    We will see in the next 3 to 6 months what the data show on overall mortality numbers, this year compared to last 3 years.
  153. @Mr. Anon
    Boomers are not covering themselves in glory. I think this will cement the contempt that younger generations have for them and usher in the Boomerdaemmerung.

    “Younger Generations” may indeed come around to that POV, and not unfairly, but as I posted yesterday, these appear to have been the generational moods from circa February through last Thursday, or whenever the BenDavid study hit the news headlines.

    ✓ Over 75 = “Eh? Sounds dangerous and maybe this’ll be The Big One but I already know santa is fake and I aint afraid of no ghost”

    X 55-75 = “NO! When I was young I was assured that if not for the Cold War science would solve death! Or at least that we’d all live till over 110! I’M TOO YOUNG TO DIE! These punk millennials have been writing excitedly about my upcoming death because I’m supposedly racist? And they even dare laugh me down with their ‘Okay Boomer’ mockery from their circle jerk safe spaces? Go to your rooms! This is MY time for a safe space.”

    $£¥ 40-55 = “Eh? Sounds dangerous. Besides, uh, well this is all kinna confusing and I’m too old to be radical so I guess I’ll go along with the prevailing wisdom and guidelines, but methinks the boomers are acting a little embarassing for their age.”

    @ 30 – 40 = “Men. This is what we’ve been training for. We knew this day would come. Whether it’s information repeating, doomsday prepping or begging to be allowed to stay home until the dragon is vanquished, we are at one with our computer screens and we will fight and kill and many of us shall die in this brave battle like our grandparents did during World War Two.

    !!! 15-30 = “Brought to you by Carl’s Jr. Brought to you by Carl’s Jr. BROUGHT TO YOU BY CARL’S JR!”

    ?¿? 0- 15 = “Well this is different than when I was just a child way back last year. And kind of scary! Just another thing to throw into the complex algebra of dealing with teething, zits and family. I wonder if this is forever? Mom? Is this…eh, she’s not going to give me a syraight answer. Heck, none of the adults told me last year that THIS was even coming!”

  154. @Jack D
    If you find yourself in agreement with a someone named Tariq Nasheed you should question whether perhaps you might be wrong.

    Tariq Nasheed is a deep cover friend like Tina Fey, notice how he sets up a huge rebuttal, ie, the National Guard.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    Tariq Nasheed is a deep cover friend like Tina Fey, notice how he sets up a huge rebuttal, ie, the National Guard.
     
    A friend of whom? How?

    And how is Tina Fey a friend?

  155. @moshe
    Who knows? Who cares? If you think that Orthodox Jews praying in New York should be treated the same by the police as Blacks partying in New York then...draw tour own conclusion.

    They weren’t “praying,” the photographs from the calling-in of the National Guard show them partying outdoors. LIKE BLACK FOLK.

    • Replies: @moshe
    We saw the same picture. Also, how absolutely ignorant and lacking in common sense do you have to be to think that such a thing is even possible? It's like you know absolutely Zero about either Jews OR Blacks.

    I happen to prefer Blackpartying to Jewishpraying so this isn't about Right/Wrong. It's about how absolutely lacking in common sense you appear to be about people. You obviousoy don't get around too much. Perhaps you should.
  156. @Semperluctor
    This argument does not address the assertion made by Buzz M., and it is not internally consistent. People who want the country to reopen, on the well founded suspicion that the mortality data were wrong from the start, are not pathetic consumers who want to go back to consuming Chinese junk. They just want to work. The employees at my firm make more than combined State and Fed emergency UI, so they have a rational interest in going back to work. Most of them have young families, I am the oldest there by far, and they have zero interest in dying for the Dow.
    But, and here is the kicker: 650,000 Americans keel over every year from heart disease, and nobody bans Cheetos, giant slurpies, triple Big Macs, etc. If herd immunity = 160m infected, and that takes two waves, and mortality rate is, as the data now increasingly support, about 0.1%, that’s 160,000 deaths in both waves. Waves 1 and 2 combined will be about one quarter of a normal year of heart disease and stroke carnage. We will have destroyed the employment prospects of perhaps 10 million people for a decade... 22 million new unemployed, about 40 percent of whom will struggle to get their full time jobs back. The total death rate over 10 years, from suicides, opioid accidents, and reduced health care availability (courtesy of shuttered hospitals) will dwarf waves 1 and 2 of Covid 19. This is simply madness. I have noticed that the most strident voices arguing for continued lockdowns are not receptive to reasoned arguments; they engage in ad hominem attacks and take counter factuals as attacks on their identity. Unfortunately, on a different scale, our elites, on both sides of the aisle, are doing the same thing. I think that the only thing that will save us are 200 million antibody tests. Those will settle the questions of total death rates and ‘Did Sweden get it right or wrong?’. Until then, could we please have reasoned arguments, and not emotive and unsupported assertions?

    Thank you for writing the kind of reply I was too lazy to write. I just don’t have the energy to reply to all of this. Maybe I am not getting enough oxygen.

    He missed my point completely, which you grasped.

    This isn’t about me, or about anyone’s personal inconvenience. My life hasn’t changed much from this. My office has been a paneled room (not a closet!) in my house since 2009. I’m still walking four miles up and down hills every other day for exercise, sunshine and fresh air. (It’s allowed here!) If I ever find that difficult, maybe then I will worry that I am not getting enough oxygen. My wife continues to do Pilates, yoga and the elliptical in the gym I created for her in another room.

    We’re fine. It is the world that must function for all of us that I am worried about.

    I am in fact sitting back and kind of enjoying watching the world stop. My concern is not at all for myself, except for the possible economic destruction of my country, massive inflation-or-deflation, and for everyone and everything you wrote about. The costs of this craziness are incalculable. The future is now very uncertain. Millions may suffer who should not have. Our currency and our country’s “full faith and credit” $$$ may explode or implode. Things really, truly might break down for a long time because of this foolishness.

    My comment days ago about my mother-in-law’s death, regretfully unfair to Steve Sailer, was just a snapshot of how badly mistaken I think many influential people are right now. They have stopped the motor of the world. Now we know who John Galt is, only this time he is more of an anti-John Galt, and not at all a force for good.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    In addition to the many economic ills this manufactured crisis has created, it is also a massive assault on civil liberties. It is normalizing surveillance and repression that is more widespread and thorough than anything done under the auspices of the "War on Terror" after 911. It is also a pscyological assault on simple everyday normal human interactions. They have even gone so far as to say that normal isn't normal anymore. There will be a new normal to which you must conform.

    Is it really just a coincidence that the measures advocated to fight this pandemic just happen to be about every item on some kind of globalist New World Order to-do list.

  157. @Jack D
    This is the sad thing about our Wuhan Virus response. Not only have we needlessly destroyed the entire economy and educational system in a futile effort to stem the virus, we haven't done those simple things that would ACTUALLY stem the virus such as properly managing our nursing homes (which are barely under control on a good day) and forcing non-compliant groups like blacks and Hasidic Jews to modify their behavior. Not to mention putting the whole goddamn country on a diet so that obesity and diabetes is no longer rampant. This is not impossible - all we need to do is to get body masses back to 1960 levels. This was not so long ago. Instead we SUBSIDIZE obesity with food stamps. We pay billions to fatten the bottom line of ADM and destroy the public health and everyone is totally cool with it.

    Basically, our society is to far gone to mount an effective campaign to do ANYTHING. Everything gets mired in the race/class/gender/ affirmative action/regulatory capture by billionaires morass. It would be sad if this disease is really the tipping point for our society but I guess it had to come sooner or later on the path that we were on.

    Instead we SUBSIDIZE obesity with food stamps.

    If food stamps were transitioned to cash payments, farmers would scream, as the indigent ate less, but our Medicaid expense would gradually shrink. But kids would really go hungry. Which is why we have food stamps in the first place – to make it difficult for morons to not buy food for their kids. The moron element has to be accounted for.

    • Disagree: 3g4me
    • Replies: @Jack D
    Don't they already give the kids breakfast and lunch (and sometimes dinner) at school? How many different ways are we supposed to subsidize stuffing more calories into ghetto residents who are already quite evidently fat as sows? I keep hearing about "hunger" but all I see is fat people. I know what hungry people look like and this ain't it.
  158. @gabriel alberton

    Until then, could we please have reasoned arguments, and not emotive and unsupported assertions?
     
    I agree those don't help. Here are some examples of ''emotive, unsupported assertions'':

    If herd immunity = 160m infected, and that takes two waves, and mortality rate is, as the data now increasingly support, about 0.1%, that’s 160,000 deaths in both waves. Waves 1 and 2 combined will be about one quarter of a normal year of heart disease and stroke carnage.
     

    We will have destroyed the employment prospects of perhaps 10 million people for a decade… 22 million new unemployed, about 40 percent of whom will struggle to get their full time jobs back.
     

    The total death rate over 10 years, from suicides, opioid accidents, and reduced health care availability (courtesy of shuttered hospitals) will dwarf waves 1 and 2 of Covid 19.
     
    Also:

    Americans keel over every year from heart disease, and nobody bans Cheetos, giant slurpies, triple Big Macs, etc.
     
    Nobody? You sure? But as I was told, that is a ridiculous, dictatorial infringement on Americans' freedoms.

    Please never stop being internally consistent.

    Huh?
    How is this an argument? This reply reduces down to “ I don’t understand you, and if I did, I anyhow disagree with you, so nah nah nah, you’re emotive”.
    Sigh.
    Next, Gabriel A. will write back that his Dad was bigger than mine.
    Lastly, the NY ban on giant slushees went nowhere. My points are all valid, which is why Gabriel’s response was ‘nah nah nah’. In general, we do not take harsh Covid type measures to prevent/control a 650k per year killer. For historical, cultural, and business reasons, Govt. stays clear.
    The data support the evolving hypothesis that the actual death rate is about 0.1 % or so. The whole point of reasoned arguments is that competing hypotheses can be examined, and those which do not work in the face of empirical data are abandoned. Someone else here mentioned, and this was very clever, that there seems to be a new religion of Quarantinism. Its adherents don’t take kindly to reason or to argument. Instead, it’s unpleasantness and dogmatism; public policy decisions based on Q. will destroy large swathes of the middle and working classes. Is that what the Quarantiners secretly hope for, an epic economic Gotterdammerung?
    If the data show me that I am wrong, I change my mind, and I am open to changing it.
    We will see in the next 3 to 6 months what the data show on overall mortality numbers, this year compared to last 3 years.

    • Replies: @gabriel alberton
    Your points are all unproven. All emotional speculation. You have no data to support anything you said.

    Here's how you can be shown to be wrong:

    If over 160 thousand covid-19 deaths happen before two waves of this thing are over, you'll be wrong, as you declared


    Waves 1 and 2 combined will be about one quarter of a normal year of heart disease and stroke carnage.
     
    If more than two waves happen, causing more deaths, you'll also obviously be wrong.

    If over 40% of the 22 million workers (who you assume to be all full time workers -- funny how that works!) who were laid off EVER find full-time work again (that'd be 9 million former full-time workers), you'll also be wrong, as you decreed


    22 million new unemployed, about 40 percent of whom will struggle to get their full time jobs back
     
    You have no data to support they'll ''struggle'' to do so, of course, whatever you meant by that.

    If the number of unemployed for the next ten years ever dips below 10 million, you'll be wrong, as you asserted


    We will have destroyed the employment prospects of perhaps 10 million people for a decade…
     
    If the number of EXTRA suicides plus opioid overdoses for the next decade doesn't surpass the number of covid-19 deaths, you'll also be wrong, as you proclaimed

    The total death rate over 10 years, from suicides, opioid accidents, and reduced health care availability (courtesy of shuttered hospitals) will dwarf waves 1 and 2 of Covid 19.

     

    As you know, in 2018, before the pandemic, 48,344 suicides took place in the US, along with 67,367 overdoses. That's the baseline. The covid-19 death toll is currently about 40,000 deaths. It is, of course, not going to stop there.

    Once again, if the number of covid-19 fatalities is equal to or larger than the number of EXTRA suicides and overdoses combined that will take place over the 10 next years, you'll be wrong. You said the latter will ''dwarf'' the former. Whatever. If the number of suicide+overdose deaths decreases (on average, over the next decade) compared to 2018 you'll also obviously be wrong. And of course, if hospitals don't shut down, then guess what -- you'll be wrong again.

    I don't particularly care about you being wrong -- a few famous people have been very wrong, by more than an order of magnitude, about this pandemic, people who should've known better than some bullshitter behind an online handle like you. They cause much more harm than you by being wrong. But my bet? You'll be wrong on all counts.

  159. Anonymous[145] • Disclaimer says:
    @PaulT
    It’s somewhat more dangerous to be downwind than upwind, but spread can happen in both directions.

    Lesson: Everyone should sit upwind from everyone else.

    It’s somewhat more dangerous to be downwind than upwind, but spread can happen in both directions.

    Lesson: Everyone should sit upwind from everyone else.

    This is not an airborne pathogen.

  160. Anonymous[145] • Disclaimer says:
    @J.Ross
    Tariq Nasheed is a deep cover friend like Tina Fey, notice how he sets up a huge rebuttal, ie, the National Guard.

    Tariq Nasheed is a deep cover friend like Tina Fey, notice how he sets up a huge rebuttal, ie, the National Guard.

    A friend of whom? How?

    And how is Tina Fey a friend?

  161. @J.Ross
    They weren't "praying," the photographs from the calling-in of the National Guard show them partying outdoors. LIKE BLACK FOLK.

    We saw the same picture. Also, how absolutely ignorant and lacking in common sense do you have to be to think that such a thing is even possible? It’s like you know absolutely Zero about either Jews OR Blacks.

    I happen to prefer Blackpartying to Jewishpraying so this isn’t about Right/Wrong. It’s about how absolutely lacking in common sense you appear to be about people. You obviousoy don’t get around too much. Perhaps you should.

  162. @moshe
    Who knows? Who cares? If you think that Orthodox Jews praying in New York should be treated the same by the police as Blacks partying in New York then...draw tour own conclusion.

    If you think that Orthodox Jews praying in New York should be treated the same by the police as Blacks partying in New York then…draw tour own conclusion.

    I think they should both be treated the same by the police. I think they should both be left alone.

    • Agree: moshe
  163. @Buzz Mohawk
    Thank you for writing the kind of reply I was too lazy to write. I just don't have the energy to reply to all of this. Maybe I am not getting enough oxygen.

    He missed my point completely, which you grasped.

    This isn't about me, or about anyone's personal inconvenience. My life hasn't changed much from this. My office has been a paneled room (not a closet!) in my house since 2009. I'm still walking four miles up and down hills every other day for exercise, sunshine and fresh air. (It's allowed here!) If I ever find that difficult, maybe then I will worry that I am not getting enough oxygen. My wife continues to do Pilates, yoga and the elliptical in the gym I created for her in another room.

    We're fine. It is the world that must function for all of us that I am worried about.

    I am in fact sitting back and kind of enjoying watching the world stop. My concern is not at all for myself, except for the possible economic destruction of my country, massive inflation-or-deflation, and for everyone and everything you wrote about. The costs of this craziness are incalculable. The future is now very uncertain. Millions may suffer who should not have. Our currency and our country's "full faith and credit" $$$ may explode or implode. Things really, truly might break down for a long time because of this foolishness.

    My comment days ago about my mother-in-law's death, regretfully unfair to Steve Sailer, was just a snapshot of how badly mistaken I think many influential people are right now. They have stopped the motor of the world. Now we know who John Galt is, only this time he is more of an anti-John Galt, and not at all a force for good.

    In addition to the many economic ills this manufactured crisis has created, it is also a massive assault on civil liberties. It is normalizing surveillance and repression that is more widespread and thorough than anything done under the auspices of the “War on Terror” after 911. It is also a pscyological assault on simple everyday normal human interactions. They have even gone so far as to say that normal isn’t normal anymore. There will be a new normal to which you must conform.

    Is it really just a coincidence that the measures advocated to fight this pandemic just happen to be about every item on some kind of globalist New World Order to-do list.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    It does dovetail nicely with the post-911 erosion of the Bill of Rights.

    Perhaps we will henceforth have a permanent War on Viruses to go with the permanent War on Terror. The potential for abuse is infinite. Already today the media/TV doctor/CDC message is "get ready for the second wave," and get the flu shot because December is gonna be a double whammy and we don't want you to clog up our hospitals. The terror will continue.

    I'm going to pour myself some Victory Gin and watch the telescreen while it watches me. I'd better stay put; my phone is tracking me.

    https://www.brandwatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/Bigbrother.jpg

    Which reminds me: I've heard that the Chinese are great and smart and good and better at things. I've been reading about it a lot, and about how stupid it is that we aren't doing things here more the way they do over there. There seems to be a strange amount of admiration of them and their government around here...

    Shh! Don't tell anybody I said that.
    , @Keypusher

    Is it really just a coincidence that the measures advocated to fight this pandemic just happen to be about every item on some kind of globalist New World Order to-do list.
     
    What are you babbling about? Globalists wanted to kill international travel and shut down all the restaurants? They wanted to close public schools? They wanted to annihilate M&A and kill the stock market?

    What is wrong with you hysterics?
  164. @The Alarmist
    Like the Prof. said, let's look at the numbers this time next year. All we've done is dragged out our misery.

    Fine, but it seems Sweden will end up with a lot of unnecessary deaths in regards to its neighbors, and the professor will have a lot of explaining to do to Swedish citizens. By the way, in the interview he seems either incredibly arrogant or incredibly deluded – for example, against all evidence, he insists restrictions on travel have no impact on the spread of the virus

    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    Just came across this gem:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8248719/Swedens-coronavirus-cases-grow-slowly-Britains-despite-lack-lockdown.html
  165. @Semperluctor
    Huh?
    How is this an argument? This reply reduces down to “ I don’t understand you, and if I did, I anyhow disagree with you, so nah nah nah, you’re emotive”.
    Sigh.
    Next, Gabriel A. will write back that his Dad was bigger than mine.
    Lastly, the NY ban on giant slushees went nowhere. My points are all valid, which is why Gabriel’s response was ‘nah nah nah’. In general, we do not take harsh Covid type measures to prevent/control a 650k per year killer. For historical, cultural, and business reasons, Govt. stays clear.
    The data support the evolving hypothesis that the actual death rate is about 0.1 % or so. The whole point of reasoned arguments is that competing hypotheses can be examined, and those which do not work in the face of empirical data are abandoned. Someone else here mentioned, and this was very clever, that there seems to be a new religion of Quarantinism. Its adherents don’t take kindly to reason or to argument. Instead, it’s unpleasantness and dogmatism; public policy decisions based on Q. will destroy large swathes of the middle and working classes. Is that what the Quarantiners secretly hope for, an epic economic Gotterdammerung?
    If the data show me that I am wrong, I change my mind, and I am open to changing it.
    We will see in the next 3 to 6 months what the data show on overall mortality numbers, this year compared to last 3 years.

    Your points are all unproven. All emotional speculation. You have no data to support anything you said.

    Here’s how you can be shown to be wrong:

    If over 160 thousand covid-19 deaths happen before two waves of this thing are over, you’ll be wrong, as you declared

    Waves 1 and 2 combined will be about one quarter of a normal year of heart disease and stroke carnage.

    If more than two waves happen, causing more deaths, you’ll also obviously be wrong.

    If over 40% of the 22 million workers (who you assume to be all full time workers — funny how that works!) who were laid off EVER find full-time work again (that’d be 9 million former full-time workers), you’ll also be wrong, as you decreed

    22 million new unemployed, about 40 percent of whom will struggle to get their full time jobs back

    You have no data to support they’ll ”struggle” to do so, of course, whatever you meant by that.

    If the number of unemployed for the next ten years ever dips below 10 million, you’ll be wrong, as you asserted

    We will have destroyed the employment prospects of perhaps 10 million people for a decade…

    If the number of EXTRA suicides plus opioid overdoses for the next decade doesn’t surpass the number of covid-19 deaths, you’ll also be wrong, as you proclaimed

    The total death rate over 10 years, from suicides, opioid accidents, and reduced health care availability (courtesy of shuttered hospitals) will dwarf waves 1 and 2 of Covid 19.

    As you know, in 2018, before the pandemic, 48,344 suicides took place in the US, along with 67,367 overdoses. That’s the baseline. The covid-19 death toll is currently about 40,000 deaths. It is, of course, not going to stop there.

    Once again, if the number of covid-19 fatalities is equal to or larger than the number of EXTRA suicides and overdoses combined that will take place over the 10 next years, you’ll be wrong. You said the latter will ”dwarf” the former. Whatever. If the number of suicide+overdose deaths decreases (on average, over the next decade) compared to 2018 you’ll also obviously be wrong. And of course, if hospitals don’t shut down, then guess what — you’ll be wrong again.

    I don’t particularly care about you being wrong — a few famous people have been very wrong, by more than an order of magnitude, about this pandemic, people who should’ve known better than some bullshitter behind an online handle like you. They cause much more harm than you by being wrong. But my bet? You’ll be wrong on all counts.

    • Replies: @Semperluctor
    Hello GA.

    Well, it took you a few tries to get there, but you are close.
    Look carefully at what you have laid out above.
    You are taking my hypotheses, and are saying “If X condition that you assert will occur does not in fact occur, then you will be wrong”
    Ta Da! Yes, well done, that is quite right.
    Notice then how arguments are formulated, and then rebutted. I make an argument, and your summation of my arguments followed by their post facto nullification, amounts to a rebuttal. Which neatly proves my assertion that my hypotheses are rational. I have dragged you, swearing and cursing, into a rational exposition.

    Turning now to whether data support my hypotheses. By an odd coincidence, more large reports are coming out today showing that IFRs and total death rates are somewhere between 0.2 % and 0.5%. It is not irrational to expect that studies done next month will show a higher still total infection rate, and thus a rate closer to 0.10%. Even if the rate here is 0.50%, that would be about the same as 12 months of heart and stroke deaths, so neither of us would win this unfriendly (on your part) wager.

    Regarding unemployment, no, you are getting confused. You assert that if none of the approx 10 million ever gets his or her job back, I will be wrong. That is illogical. What I wrote is that those 10 million would struggle to get their jobs back, that is to say, that it would take time and effort, not that those 10m would never get their jobs back. A W-shaped recovery would see most of those 22m jobs return, but 35 to 40% oaf those jobs will years to return if the lockdowns continue.

    Moreover, how about you try keeping a civil tongue in your head. I am not bullshitting, and your personal attacks only weaken what few arguments you make.

    Lastly, think about this for a second. I hope that I am right, whereas a sneaky and nasty part of you is itching for me to be wrong, even if that means the deaths of some 650,000 people here.What a sad little fellow you must be, if you are a real person and not a troll. I am both in an at-risk age group, and I have a dangerous comorbidity condition. I do not want to die for the Dow, and I do not want my colleagues to die for it either. But, the young, the healthy, those who in study after study have something like a 0.001% chance of dying, they should be allowed to work, and the at-risk should make rational decisions about how strictly to shelter in place.

    We will know in about 3 to 6 months’ time if my rationally optimistic ideas are right or wrong. I hope that I am proven right. In the interim, try working on your sense of empathy and compassion and get to the point where you are happy to be proven wrong.
  166. @Mr. Anon
    In addition to the many economic ills this manufactured crisis has created, it is also a massive assault on civil liberties. It is normalizing surveillance and repression that is more widespread and thorough than anything done under the auspices of the "War on Terror" after 911. It is also a pscyological assault on simple everyday normal human interactions. They have even gone so far as to say that normal isn't normal anymore. There will be a new normal to which you must conform.

    Is it really just a coincidence that the measures advocated to fight this pandemic just happen to be about every item on some kind of globalist New World Order to-do list.

    It does dovetail nicely with the post-911 erosion of the Bill of Rights.

    Perhaps we will henceforth have a permanent War on Viruses to go with the permanent War on Terror. The potential for abuse is infinite. Already today the media/TV doctor/CDC message is “get ready for the second wave,” and get the flu shot because December is gonna be a double whammy and we don’t want you to clog up our hospitals. The terror will continue.

    I’m going to pour myself some Victory Gin and watch the telescreen while it watches me. I’d better stay put; my phone is tracking me.

    Which reminds me: I’ve heard that the Chinese are great and smart and good and better at things. I’ve been reading about it a lot, and about how stupid it is that we aren’t doing things here more the way they do over there. There seems to be a strange amount of admiration of them and their government around here…

    Shh! Don’t tell anybody I said that.

  167. @Johann Ricke

    Instead we SUBSIDIZE obesity with food stamps.
     
    If food stamps were transitioned to cash payments, farmers would scream, as the indigent ate less, but our Medicaid expense would gradually shrink. But kids would really go hungry. Which is why we have food stamps in the first place - to make it difficult for morons to not buy food for their kids. The moron element has to be accounted for.

    Don’t they already give the kids breakfast and lunch (and sometimes dinner) at school? How many different ways are we supposed to subsidize stuffing more calories into ghetto residents who are already quite evidently fat as sows? I keep hearing about “hunger” but all I see is fat people. I know what hungry people look like and this ain’t it.

    • LOL: Johann Ricke
  168. @Known Fact
    Of course bacteria vs. virus but the list of symptoms does sound similar. Legionnaire spread is not person-to-person but waterborne as you say, but the tainted water could spread through AC systems. It was a real puzzle for a while and then in NYC I seem to recall the problem being traced to those old rooftop water tanks.

    Somehow I have a very vivid, detailed memory of first hearing about the first known Legionnaires’ disease outbreak back in 1976. We were driving to Jones Beach on Long Island, and WOR AM was reporting really wild stuff, such as victims’ heads swelling enormously (perhaps that was the national network, not local news).

    In other words, wild claims because no one yet understood what was happening, and the media reporting trended hyperbolic. Visions of gargantuan, melon-like heads. First time I saw a picture of Jack Ma, I flashed back to 1976 and the Legionnaires’ stuff.

    I escaped New York long ago, praise be to whomever, but am I the only dummy who found Steve’s post title reminded of the Billy Joel song:

    My family and I have a generations-long issue with Joel (full disclosure), but some of his music was catchy 😉

  169. @moshe
    Who knows? Who cares? If you think that Orthodox Jews praying in New York should be treated the same by the police as Blacks partying in New York then...draw tour own conclusion.

    It’s not Da Jooz. It’s da Shwarzers.

  170. @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    Most New Yorkers did not contract the virus in restaurants. About half the deaths are among elderly nursing home residents. In New Jersey , Connecticut , Pennsylvania we now know that half the fatalities occurred in Nursing homes and long-term care facilities. These people have not eaten in a restaurant in years , nor have they taken a subway or gone to work in decades.

    The media hides the data , failing to report honestly because they started the panic and seek to extend the panic and economic catastrophe. Nobody caught the Coronavirus in our parks or playing golf , yet these outdoor places are shutdown here while liquor stores remain open. Thousand of New Yorkers died in nursing homes this week , yet the press ignores reality to pump up the panic narrative.

    To save lives we need to close all the nursing homes and get these elderly people to the parks... yet in New Jersey the governor forces the nursing homes to accept CV positive patients while keeping the parks closed.

    Thousand of New Yorkers died in nursing homes this week , yet the press ignores reality to pump up the panic narrative.

    The press/media is screaming about nursing homes nonstop. What planet are you on?

  171. @Mr. Anon
    In addition to the many economic ills this manufactured crisis has created, it is also a massive assault on civil liberties. It is normalizing surveillance and repression that is more widespread and thorough than anything done under the auspices of the "War on Terror" after 911. It is also a pscyological assault on simple everyday normal human interactions. They have even gone so far as to say that normal isn't normal anymore. There will be a new normal to which you must conform.

    Is it really just a coincidence that the measures advocated to fight this pandemic just happen to be about every item on some kind of globalist New World Order to-do list.

    Is it really just a coincidence that the measures advocated to fight this pandemic just happen to be about every item on some kind of globalist New World Order to-do list.

    What are you babbling about? Globalists wanted to kill international travel and shut down all the restaurants? They wanted to close public schools? They wanted to annihilate M&A and kill the stock market?

    What is wrong with you hysterics?

  172. What are you babbling about? Globalists wanted to kill international travel and shut down all the restaurants? They wanted to close public schools? They wanted to annihilate M&A and kill the stock market?

    But it won’t kill the international travel they care about – immigration for third-worlders to western countries and private and/or exclusive air-travel for the elite. Public schools won’t go away after this – but the pupils will be encouraged to snitch on thier non-socialp-distancing parents. The lockdown is killing small businesses – a vehicle for economic freedom and private initiative. Walmart, Costco, Home Depot – they can weather the downturn. And Amazon is positively booming.

    Cashless society? Check

    A sea of atomized, isolated consumers, detached from everything but thier food, booze, weed, and TV? Check

    And kill the stock market? Are you crazy? Yes – they want to tank the market. So they can move back in and buy it up cheap. This whole thing represents an enormous asset reallocation.

    You’re just not paying attention.

    What’s wrong with you gullible fools?

  173. Anonymous[248] • Disclaimer says:
    @RichardTaylor
    Baby Boomers get obsessed over every little detail that affects their lives. So, we get endless discussions like this about a little virus that didn't lill as many as the flu. Meanwhile, White children are now minority status in their own country.

    If Boomers, as a generation, had any honor, they would save the passion helping future Whites. They would lead the charge to make changes, like getting rid of "civil rights" and Nixon's affirmative action.

    But that would take moral courage. And the Drama Queen Boomers would rather bleat about how their pathetic ass might be affected by a bug.

    My advice to young White people: You don't owe these people anything.

    When the Boomers hit middle age, Western society freaked out about cholesterol, stress and smoking. Now they’ve hit old age, it’s freaking out over the flu.

    Everything revolves around these people.

  174. @gabriel alberton
    Your points are all unproven. All emotional speculation. You have no data to support anything you said.

    Here's how you can be shown to be wrong:

    If over 160 thousand covid-19 deaths happen before two waves of this thing are over, you'll be wrong, as you declared


    Waves 1 and 2 combined will be about one quarter of a normal year of heart disease and stroke carnage.
     
    If more than two waves happen, causing more deaths, you'll also obviously be wrong.

    If over 40% of the 22 million workers (who you assume to be all full time workers -- funny how that works!) who were laid off EVER find full-time work again (that'd be 9 million former full-time workers), you'll also be wrong, as you decreed


    22 million new unemployed, about 40 percent of whom will struggle to get their full time jobs back
     
    You have no data to support they'll ''struggle'' to do so, of course, whatever you meant by that.

    If the number of unemployed for the next ten years ever dips below 10 million, you'll be wrong, as you asserted


    We will have destroyed the employment prospects of perhaps 10 million people for a decade…
     
    If the number of EXTRA suicides plus opioid overdoses for the next decade doesn't surpass the number of covid-19 deaths, you'll also be wrong, as you proclaimed

    The total death rate over 10 years, from suicides, opioid accidents, and reduced health care availability (courtesy of shuttered hospitals) will dwarf waves 1 and 2 of Covid 19.

     

    As you know, in 2018, before the pandemic, 48,344 suicides took place in the US, along with 67,367 overdoses. That's the baseline. The covid-19 death toll is currently about 40,000 deaths. It is, of course, not going to stop there.

    Once again, if the number of covid-19 fatalities is equal to or larger than the number of EXTRA suicides and overdoses combined that will take place over the 10 next years, you'll be wrong. You said the latter will ''dwarf'' the former. Whatever. If the number of suicide+overdose deaths decreases (on average, over the next decade) compared to 2018 you'll also obviously be wrong. And of course, if hospitals don't shut down, then guess what -- you'll be wrong again.

    I don't particularly care about you being wrong -- a few famous people have been very wrong, by more than an order of magnitude, about this pandemic, people who should've known better than some bullshitter behind an online handle like you. They cause much more harm than you by being wrong. But my bet? You'll be wrong on all counts.

    Hello GA.

    Well, it took you a few tries to get there, but you are close.
    Look carefully at what you have laid out above.
    You are taking my hypotheses, and are saying “If X condition that you assert will occur does not in fact occur, then you will be wrong”
    Ta Da! Yes, well done, that is quite right.
    Notice then how arguments are formulated, and then rebutted. I make an argument, and your summation of my arguments followed by their post facto nullification, amounts to a rebuttal. Which neatly proves my assertion that my hypotheses are rational. I have dragged you, swearing and cursing, into a rational exposition.

    Turning now to whether data support my hypotheses. By an odd coincidence, more large reports are coming out today showing that IFRs and total death rates are somewhere between 0.2 % and 0.5%. It is not irrational to expect that studies done next month will show a higher still total infection rate, and thus a rate closer to 0.10%. Even if the rate here is 0.50%, that would be about the same as 12 months of heart and stroke deaths, so neither of us would win this unfriendly (on your part) wager.

    Regarding unemployment, no, you are getting confused. You assert that if none of the approx 10 million ever gets his or her job back, I will be wrong. That is illogical. What I wrote is that those 10 million would struggle to get their jobs back, that is to say, that it would take time and effort, not that those 10m would never get their jobs back. A W-shaped recovery would see most of those 22m jobs return, but 35 to 40% oaf those jobs will years to return if the lockdowns continue.

    Moreover, how about you try keeping a civil tongue in your head. I am not bullshitting, and your personal attacks only weaken what few arguments you make.

    Lastly, think about this for a second. I hope that I am right, whereas a sneaky and nasty part of you is itching for me to be wrong, even if that means the deaths of some 650,000 people here.What a sad little fellow you must be, if you are a real person and not a troll. I am both in an at-risk age group, and I have a dangerous comorbidity condition. I do not want to die for the Dow, and I do not want my colleagues to die for it either. But, the young, the healthy, those who in study after study have something like a 0.001% chance of dying, they should be allowed to work, and the at-risk should make rational decisions about how strictly to shelter in place.

    We will know in about 3 to 6 months’ time if my rationally optimistic ideas are right or wrong. I hope that I am proven right. In the interim, try working on your sense of empathy and compassion and get to the point where you are happy to be proven wrong.

    • Replies: @gabriel alberton

    Turning now to whether data support my hypotheses. By an odd coincidence, more large reports are coming out today showing that IFRs and total death rates are somewhere between 0.2 % and 0.5%.
     
    Which, by an odd coincidence, go against your assumption that they would be around 0.1%:

    If herd immunity = 160m infected, and that takes two waves, and mortality rate is, as the data now increasingly support, about 0.1%
     

    It is not irrational to expect that studies done next month will show a higher still total infection rate, and thus a rate closer to 0.10%.
     
    It's what you want to happen, for sure. Of course, you have no evidence that will actually go through the process of happening, not in the US. I do have evidence that will likely not happen -- in the US, the case fatality rate has been creeping up slowly but consistently (new deaths rising proportionally more than new cases). This does not translate into evidence the infection fatality rate is going down, as you wish it were.

    Even if the rate here is 0.50%, that would be about the same as 12 months of heart and stroke deaths, so neither of us would win this unfriendly (on your part) wager.
     
    If the number of covid-19 deaths in 2020 is about the same as that of heart and stroke deaths for preceding years (around 650 thousand) then of course you'll be wrong. You asserted both the first and second waves will result in no more than 160 thousand deaths, or a little under a quarter of 650 thousand (assuming, of course, your speculative infection fatality rate of 0.1%):

    that’s 160,000 deaths in both waves. Waves 1 and 2 combined will be about one quarter of a normal year of heart disease and stroke carnage.
     
    You're not only bullshitting, you also seem to think I'm an idiot and will not notice you moving the goalpost from 160 thousand deaths to 650 thousand deaths. I did notice.

    Regarding unemployment, no, you are getting confused. You assert that if none of the approx 10 million ever gets his or her job back, I will be wrong.
     
    That's not what I said. I'm not the one getting confused here. I said that

    If over 40% of the 22 million workers (who you assume to be all full time workers — funny how that works!) who were laid off EVER find full-time work again (that’d be 9 million former full-time workers), you’ll also be wrong
     
    and that

    If the number of unemployed for the next ten years ever dips below 10 million, you’ll be wrong
     
    You're the one getting confused. Now you're saying that what you really mean is that it will take years, plural, for those former workers to find jobs again (and now you add the condition ''if the lockdowns continue''. They likely will). So if they find jobs before April 2022 so that less than 10 million are unemployed by then, you'll be even more wrong.

    Then you try to teach me some morals. You got one thing right: I don't care who you are or what you think of me. I don't wish you any harm. I don't wish you any good either. All I care about regarding you is whether what you spew here is right or wrong. And almost everything else points towards it being wrong and you being a holier-than-you bullshitter.

  175. @Semperluctor
    Hello GA.

    Well, it took you a few tries to get there, but you are close.
    Look carefully at what you have laid out above.
    You are taking my hypotheses, and are saying “If X condition that you assert will occur does not in fact occur, then you will be wrong”
    Ta Da! Yes, well done, that is quite right.
    Notice then how arguments are formulated, and then rebutted. I make an argument, and your summation of my arguments followed by their post facto nullification, amounts to a rebuttal. Which neatly proves my assertion that my hypotheses are rational. I have dragged you, swearing and cursing, into a rational exposition.

    Turning now to whether data support my hypotheses. By an odd coincidence, more large reports are coming out today showing that IFRs and total death rates are somewhere between 0.2 % and 0.5%. It is not irrational to expect that studies done next month will show a higher still total infection rate, and thus a rate closer to 0.10%. Even if the rate here is 0.50%, that would be about the same as 12 months of heart and stroke deaths, so neither of us would win this unfriendly (on your part) wager.

    Regarding unemployment, no, you are getting confused. You assert that if none of the approx 10 million ever gets his or her job back, I will be wrong. That is illogical. What I wrote is that those 10 million would struggle to get their jobs back, that is to say, that it would take time and effort, not that those 10m would never get their jobs back. A W-shaped recovery would see most of those 22m jobs return, but 35 to 40% oaf those jobs will years to return if the lockdowns continue.

    Moreover, how about you try keeping a civil tongue in your head. I am not bullshitting, and your personal attacks only weaken what few arguments you make.

    Lastly, think about this for a second. I hope that I am right, whereas a sneaky and nasty part of you is itching for me to be wrong, even if that means the deaths of some 650,000 people here.What a sad little fellow you must be, if you are a real person and not a troll. I am both in an at-risk age group, and I have a dangerous comorbidity condition. I do not want to die for the Dow, and I do not want my colleagues to die for it either. But, the young, the healthy, those who in study after study have something like a 0.001% chance of dying, they should be allowed to work, and the at-risk should make rational decisions about how strictly to shelter in place.

    We will know in about 3 to 6 months’ time if my rationally optimistic ideas are right or wrong. I hope that I am proven right. In the interim, try working on your sense of empathy and compassion and get to the point where you are happy to be proven wrong.

    Turning now to whether data support my hypotheses. By an odd coincidence, more large reports are coming out today showing that IFRs and total death rates are somewhere between 0.2 % and 0.5%.

    Which, by an odd coincidence, go against your assumption that they would be around 0.1%:

    If herd immunity = 160m infected, and that takes two waves, and mortality rate is, as the data now increasingly support, about 0.1%

    It is not irrational to expect that studies done next month will show a higher still total infection rate, and thus a rate closer to 0.10%.

    It’s what you want to happen, for sure. Of course, you have no evidence that will actually go through the process of happening, not in the US. I do have evidence that will likely not happen — in the US, the case fatality rate has been creeping up slowly but consistently (new deaths rising proportionally more than new cases). This does not translate into evidence the infection fatality rate is going down, as you wish it were.

    Even if the rate here is 0.50%, that would be about the same as 12 months of heart and stroke deaths, so neither of us would win this unfriendly (on your part) wager.

    If the number of covid-19 deaths in 2020 is about the same as that of heart and stroke deaths for preceding years (around 650 thousand) then of course you’ll be wrong. You asserted both the first and second waves will result in no more than 160 thousand deaths, or a little under a quarter of 650 thousand (assuming, of course, your speculative infection fatality rate of 0.1%):

    that’s 160,000 deaths in both waves. Waves 1 and 2 combined will be about one quarter of a normal year of heart disease and stroke carnage.

    You’re not only bullshitting, you also seem to think I’m an idiot and will not notice you moving the goalpost from 160 thousand deaths to 650 thousand deaths. I did notice.

    Regarding unemployment, no, you are getting confused. You assert that if none of the approx 10 million ever gets his or her job back, I will be wrong.

    That’s not what I said. I’m not the one getting confused here. I said that

    If over 40% of the 22 million workers (who you assume to be all full time workers — funny how that works!) who were laid off EVER find full-time work again (that’d be 9 million former full-time workers), you’ll also be wrong

    and that

    If the number of unemployed for the next ten years ever dips below 10 million, you’ll be wrong

    You’re the one getting confused. Now you’re saying that what you really mean is that it will take years, plural, for those former workers to find jobs again (and now you add the condition ”if the lockdowns continue”. They likely will). So if they find jobs before April 2022 so that less than 10 million are unemployed by then, you’ll be even more wrong.

    Then you try to teach me some morals. You got one thing right: I don’t care who you are or what you think of me. I don’t wish you any harm. I don’t wish you any good either. All I care about regarding you is whether what you spew here is right or wrong. And almost everything else points towards it being wrong and you being a holier-than-you bullshitter.

  176. @candid_observer
    The airflow goes in two opposite directions with wall air conditioners -- the cool air blows out on top, but the grid below sucks in the hot air to recirculate it.

    So those in the line of such an air conditioner are both upwind and downwind from each other.

    Finally some basic knowledge of commercial and residential AC systems where there is typically RECIRCULATION of air, supply air going one way, return air going the other! Unless you have something like a Class 100 clean bench where filtered air goes in one direction only with uniform velocity (plug flow) to convey particles away from a work surface. So the result here in the crowded restaurant is for the recirculating air to stir the aerosols in a line in front of the AC unit. Note the lack of COVID cases in the adjacent tables not in front of the AC unit.

  177. @Andy
    Fine, but it seems Sweden will end up with a lot of unnecessary deaths in regards to its neighbors, and the professor will have a lot of explaining to do to Swedish citizens. By the way, in the interview he seems either incredibly arrogant or incredibly deluded - for example, against all evidence, he insists restrictions on travel have no impact on the spread of the virus
  178. Nope.
    You have neatly overlooked the context of this entire exchange, which was my comment that we don’t lock the country down for the 650,000 deaths per year from heart disease and stroke.
    Thus, while I forecast that total deaths will be less than 160,000, even if deaths until vaccine/end of virus were as high as 650k, that would have meant tanking the economy for years for something no worse than the heart disease deaths which we have, as a country, no trouble tolerating. That makes no sense as policy.

    My point about IFR is that the estimates of it keep falling. The estimates were as high as 2% and more at one point, and now are between 0.2% and 0.57%. It’s rational to suppose that 10x more testing will end up with a number closer to 0.10%.

    Regarding employment, read carefully. The 40% of what were at the time 22m new unemployed will struggle to get their jobs back and it will takes years to do so. That is what I wrote. If all 40% (at the time 8.8 m) get their jobs back quickly, in a V-shaped recovery, then you will be right, and I will be wrong, and I will be delighted to be wrong, as my fellow citizens will have jobs. The recovery is more likely not to be V-shaped, and those 8.8m will struggle, just as the unemployed have struggled in prior serious recessions. If they drop off the employment rolls, as they have in the past, those data are still trackable, they will show up in the data regarding % employed vs total number of workers in that particular demographic.

    Laslty, as far as your protestations of personal indifference, your diatribe belies your protestations. I am not holier than you, I just don’t suffer from your frightened nihilism. I am in an older age group, and survived a Stage 3 cancer just a few years ago. If I get this virus, the data suggest that I am likely a goner, but I am neither frightened nor sad. I only have a written DNR instruction re no intubation, which I drafted weeks before the current data emerged about how ineffective intubation is for the very sick. I want the young, the healthy, the already immune, to be free, if they choose to do so, to go back to work, and I will make my own decisions about how long I will shelter in place. I respect the emergency orders, Govts have the right to make those, but there are limits to the powers of Govt., or that’s how it has worked here for 200 + years.

    This last point illuminates how extreme and religiously-dogmatic you are. It is not a binary choice between lockdowns until the virus is fully extinguished and an everyone back to work free for all. I am in favor of a model which balances the risks, somewhere along the lines of the Swedish model, yes. Countries balance risk/rewards all the time, and now is not the time to stop, it is precisely the time to keep doing it rationally. The most critical time to have disspaionate rational arguments is when there is a crisis, whereas what you what to do is to shout the other side down. I also agree with the fellow who proposed the thought experiment of ‘what if the virus only killed toddlers?’, would we lockdown the country, or just lockdown the toddlers? That question answers itself.

    You need, when it is legal to do so, to get away from the basement where you have sequestered yourself, and make new, non nihistic and hotheaded friends. You’ll be much happier, and less afraid. Your anger and your fear make you unpleasant and irrational; it must be hard living such a life. Try a change. This is the time.

  179. I’m really looking forward to our new life where we obsess over sitting downwind of the air conditioner in restaurants to avoid a contagion that kills 1% of people, mostly elderly, sick, and obese.

    This modern world we are building for ourselves is a great one! If only we could also recreate HK-level population density everywhere!

Comments are closed.

Subscribe to All Steve Sailer Comments via RSS
PastClassics
The unspoken statistical reality of urban crime over the last quarter century.
Which superpower is more threatened by its “extractive elites”?
How a Young Syndicate Lawyer from Chicago Earned a Fortune Looting the Property of the Japanese-Americans, then Lived...
Becker update V1.3.2