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There ought to be enough variation around the First World to figure this out statistically. As I pointed out more than two months ago:

The Japanese, in their own way, are evidently doing something right. In Japan a few school districts even decided to reopen on Monday after a couple of weeks of shutdown. I don’t know whether that is wise or not, but this variation within Japan will prove useful in seeing what works.

I was a big fan of school shutdowns back in February, but who knows whether that was necessary? Normally, if you have an epidemic, you shut the schools. But this is a weirdly age-related disease so the usual response to an epidemic of shutting schools may or may not have been the right decision in this particular case.

Anyway, the important question is: What to do in the future?

The question of when to reopen the schools is, due to the shift over the last 40 years toward an August to May school year, is one on which, for once, we have some time, so let’s try to get it right.

A second huge question that needs to be studied and very quickly is how many people have died and or are going to die due to not going to the emergency room or other side-effects (e.g., lockdown-induced suicides or drug overdoses) that are because of the social-political response to the disease rather than to the disease itself?

Nobody has much of a clue, although lots of folks have a strong opinion about what the answer ought to be due to their opinion of the policy implications of whatever the answer is. But I’d like to know the answer.

 
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  1. Anyway, the important question is: What to do in the future?

    What you do is go back to normal because you can’t stay shut down forever. Maybe you would like to ask how long we can go on like this?

    Children have to go back to school when the next school year begins. People have to go back to work certainly by then or sooner. Life has to go on.

    A huge question that needs to be studied very quickly is how many people have died and or are going to die due to not going to the emergency room or other side-effects (e.g., lockdown-induced suicides or drug overdoses) that are because of the social-political response to the disease rather than to the disease itself?

    Ya think? Many of us have been asking this huge question for a very long time now.

    … other side-effects… that are because of the social-political response to the disease rather than to the disease itself?

    Including economic. Putting people out of work, destroying their business and sources of income. Those are big. We can’t just look at this as a medical problem.

    Duh.

  2. epebble says:

    At least here in the U.S. (and likely also in many other countries), schools serve both as educational institutions and de facto child care for ages 5-18. Hence, parent(s) can’t go (out of home) to work if schools are not open. That has to be factored in too. And for younger children (ages 5-10 or so), availability of child care is also a factor. If there is no child care outside of school hours, parents have difficulty going out for work. The system is lot more intricate than in the days of two parents at home and only one parent working outside.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    , @AnotherDad
  3. varsicule says:

    how many people have died and or are going to die due to not going to the emergency room or other side-effects (e.g., lockdown-induced suicides or drug overdoses) that are because of the social-political response to the disease rather than to the disease itself?

    Hot off the presses: Is the Pandemic Sparking Suicide?. A big thumb-suck from the NYT. I love this quote:

    In fact, doctors won’t know for many months if suicide is spiking in 2020; each death must be carefully investigated to determine its cause.

    We know every Covid death within seconds of flatline, but it’s going to take months to figure out how many suicides have occurred. I’m guessing Google won’t have a link to a beautiful analytics dashboard on their homepage.

  4. Younger people who take up serious boozing or drugs under lockdown won’t die for a long time, but their quality of life will be reduced and they’ll die earlier than they would have otherwise.

    So in a way, the Coronavirus does kill young people!

    • Replies: @dr kill
  5. Hail says: • Website

    Anyway, the important question is: What to do in the future?

    The answer is simple: Do not allow insane escalation-spirals that end in unnecessary, months-long shutdowns lockdowns. This was a catastrophe, an entirely self-inflicted policy catastrophe.

    There should have been no general shutdowns. Definitely never any school closure. If it was politically necessary to close schools for a time, they should have reopened in April, allowing an at-most several-week Spring Break instead of a “lockdown forever” nightmare quagmire, dictated by the Corona juntas in power and continued on by demagogic governors. Even better would have been simply never closing schools, which Sweden did.

    A huge question that needs to be studied very quickly is how many people have died and or are going to die due to not going to the emergency room or other side-effects (e.g., lockdown-induced suicides or drug overdoses) […]

    Nobody has much of a clue

    We do have a clue (more than just a clue), though of course the pro-Panic media doesn’t care to report it.

    The answer we see in the numbers, out of many places, suggests already more Panic-deaths than Virus-deaths, going to up to at least three times as many Panic deaths in peak areas. Aggregate-Life-Years-Lost from the Panic-deaths is many times as large as that lost to the Wuhan Flu Virus.

    Do not mistake “the media has not reported this” with “we do not have a clue.”

    The UK reports almost as many excess corona-negative deaths as corona-positive deaths, which is already an unambiguous lower-bound. This has been reported in scattered form, but because it is so against-Narrative, it got no general traction. The rest of the excess deaths are to various causes and conditions, with only a minority attributed directly to COVID. This has been known for over a month. The idea that “we don’t have a clue” is just wrong.

    And this is all before the severe recession and its effects.

    • Disagree: Peter Frost
  6. A123 says:

    The tie is to preexisting conditions, not directly to age.

    Children without preexisting conditions should return to school on a normal schedule. Kids with conditions such as diabetes need to be looked at in a case by case basis.

    The hard part will be deciding what to do for children where a family member has a preexisting condition.

    PEACE 😷

    • Replies: @Polynikes
  7. I don’t know if this will be helpful, but according to Sweden’s chief epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell:

    “On whether children are ‘super spreaders’ of the virus

    “There is no such evidence whatsoever [that children are spreading the virus at high levels]. We see extremely few cases among children. Among the 15,000-16,000 [COVID-19] cases in Sweden, only 200 were among people less than 20 years of age. So we don’t see much disease in those age groups.”

    “And then people say, ‘OK, children still have the disease but don’t get very sick.’ Children do have the virus now and then. But there is very little evidence that this spreads the virus from children to adults.”
    https://ijnet.org/en/story/key-quotes-sweden%E2%80%99s-top-epidemiologist-challenges-conventional-wisdom-covid-19

  8. Well, there was this from a 2006 paper discussing lockdown policy:

    In previous influenza epidemics, the impact of school closings on illness rates has been mixed.2 A study from Israel reported a decrease in respiratory infections after a 2-week teacher strike, but the decrease was only evident for a single day.51 On the other hand, when schools closed for a winter holiday during the 1918 pandemic in Chicago, “more influenza cases developed among pupils . . . than when schools were in session.”2,52

    Source: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.552.1109&rep=rep1&type=pdf

    An overriding principle. Experience has shown that communities faced with epidemics or other adverse events respond best and with the least anxiety when the normal social functioning of the community is least disrupted. Strong political and public health leadership to provide reassurance and to ensure that needed medical care services are provided are critical elements. If either is seen to be less than optimal, a manageable epidemic could move toward catastrophe.

    • Replies: @ThatsNotAll
  9. Hail says: • Website

    Experts have written repeatedly of the need to re-open schools ASAP and keep them open, no exceptions.

    As of early April, the German Academy of Science recommended “opening schools as soon as possible,” but as usual with Corona the experts were sidelined and forced to seek alternative-media outlets. The process of school reopening is finally underway there. German policymakers are beginning to admit they made a mistake, just as the Dane health officials’ April admission that they were wrong to close schools.

    Knut Wittkowski has written many times on the need to re-open schools and keep them open, as here (April 30):

    Children get no or only very mild symptoms. Old people need intensive care an often die. We should have kept the schools open and close the nursing homes. Doing it the other way round caused the vast majority of deaths.

    In response to someone saying, “What about children with serious health conditions,” Wittkowski says:

    You don’t need to close schools, just allow children with preexisting conditions to stay home. It’s called common sense.

    Writing April 21, with immediate-term policy recommendations:

    What to do now? We need to open schools […] We should start with children, because they and young adults (teachers and parents) rarely end up in hospitals. At the same time or shortly thereafter we should start opening up businesses. This economy has suffered a lot.

    While we let the epidemic run, we should offer the elderly and vulnerable help with isolating themselves for a few weeks. Let the government pay for delivery of prescription drugs, meals, laundry, …

    Knut Wittkowski is a German epidemiologist active in the US since the mid-1990s. (See A Hero of the Hour, Dr. Knut Wittkowski). In one bizarre Corona-Panic incident, worthy of a historical footnote, he was sued by a German state-funded tv station for his anti-Corona views. A criminal case was opened against him.

    This was during the height of the Panic. Naturally, this lawsuit about someone allegedly promoting illegal behavior is absurd (even by German Federal Republic standards), and I can’t imagine he would be convicted of this supposed crime in absentia and banned from Europe else risking prison. Not after the Panic cloud passes; that’s too much to imagine. The act of suing the man itself does have the desired effect of keeping some timid fence-sitter experts quiet, though.

    “Keep the experts quiet; the Holy Media is in charge here.”

    • Agree: Alice
  10. A huge question that needs to be studied very quickly is how many people have died and or are going to die due to not going to the emergency room or other side-effects (e.g., lockdown-induced suicides or drug overdoses) that are because of the social-political response to the disease rather than to the disease itself?

    The evidence, at least in Europe, is that there has been a massive DROP in deaths because of the lock down. A decrease in car accidents, bar fights and work accidents obviously makes intuitive sense (and sort of underlines how much risk we take for granted when it is just part of our life style). What has puzzled doctors is that heart attacks and strokes seem to have dropped dramatically as well, possibly because a lot of people just find life more stressful than they realize.

    There seems to be little evidence of “lockdown induced suicides” or drug overdoses. Indeed – drug overdoses have also dropped because drug use is in large part social.

    Over the short term lock downs reduce mortality, that is pretty clear. Obviously there may well be longer term social and economic impacts that will result in an uptick in mortality in the future. There is a also a massive psychic difference between a 6 week lockdown and a 6 month lockdown. No doubt you would see an upsurge in suicides, domestic violence, etc. the longer you keep people confined, but we haven’t got to that point yet.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    , @moshe
  11. @Hail

    “Keep the experts quiet; the Holy Media is in charge here.”

    There are Holy Experts too, in corporate, academic and governmental roles in this. Plus dilettantes like Bill Gates.

    And why are Steve Sailer and Ron Unz among the Holy Ones now? After all their commendable writings about the MSM, American Pravda, and other things like this, their facilitation of this panic narrative just doesn’t make sense. This is the big question for me now.

    What I write is of no consequence, but what they write does matter to a lot of people, some in key places — and they know it.

    They are pushing this thing.

    (Though to Ron’s credit, he is publishing dissenting opinions. That is the beauty of his Unz Review. Many thanks to him, as usual.)

    And don’t fall for their implicit demands for numbers, numbers, numbers. Math is a wonderful thing, and they are using it as a weapon. (“Show yer work!” “If ya don’t eat yer meat, ya can’t have any pudding!)

    My wife can kick their ass at math. My wife. LOL. Just sayin’. This is not just a math problem, but they make it one every.single.time.

  12. peterike says:

    There’s a ton of good links in this Twitter feed dedicated to the Trump Juice.

    Short version: it works. It always worked. The perfidy behind the deliberate propaganda campaign against it will likely never see the light of day.

    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666
  13. @The Alarmist

    Given the prevalence of death among the “nearly dead” and the absence of death among the “mostly alive” I see no reason not to believe this is a man-made hysteria. The virus is real and it is deadly to a certain slice of the population. But if government wasn’t trying to beat the virus, or whatever the government thinks it is doing, and we went about our lives as usual, I don’t think we would have noted anything other than we had a bad flu season.

    In particular, if schools and colleges had never closed, we would not be worried now about reopening them.

    Same with the lockdowns. It is only because the government locked down that it is afraid to open up. That is the biggest reason NOT TO LOCK DOWN.

    The last paragraph of that 2006 paper is the advice we should have followed, but didn’t.

    “Experience has shown that communities … respond best and with the least anxiety when the normal social functioning of the community is least disrupted.”

    • Agree: Old Prude, Alice, Buffalo Joe
  14. Sean says:

    An Overview of the Thymus The Gland that Protects You Long after It’s Gone
    The thymus is special in that, unlike most organs, it is at its largest in children. Once you reach puberty, the thymus starts to slowly shrink and become replaced by fat. By age 75, the thymus is little more than fatty tissue. Fortunately, the thymus produces all of your T cells by the time you reach puberty

    THE immune preparedness of children to any novel pathogens, including, SARS-CoV-2 might be based on several factors. First, in the early phases of infection, natural antibodies play a most important role. Natural antibodies, mostly of IgM isotype and generated independently of previous antigen encounters, have a broad reactivity and a variable affinity. They contain the infection during the 2 weeks necessary for production of high-affinity antibodies and MBCs that will clear the virus and prevent reinfection. High-affinity antibodies are expressed by switched MBCs. […] Evolution has endowed a survival advantage to children to combat known and unknown pathogens. The adult is also well protected by the balance of cells with high and low specificity. With ageing, malnutrition, immunosuppression, and co-morbid states, our immune system loses the ability to adapt to novelty.

    The ability to produce the ” natural” (general purpose) antibodies and other antibodies is gone by 70 years old. Old folk having lost their antibody producing part of the immune system (adaptive immune system) rely on the nonspecific inflammatory machinery of the innate immune system. Prolly why we get more inflamed as we get older. There is a connection between adaptive and innate because the adaptive immune system cells have now been shown to modulate hasty and excessive innate response to pathogens. In other words, after 70 or so you tend to immediately go nuclear with inflammation when infected. And that is where the ‘cytokine storm’ comes in.

    (Influeza B can hit children hard though Why is the flu killing so many American children?.)

    [W]hether children transmit the virus

    Children are immunological giants. Like bats. I think they almost certainly will be able to have it with no signs in a great many cases, and pass it on in those weeks before they clear it.I f children are going to school then their grandparents homes will have to become total no-go areas and that might extend to gardens too.

  15. there’s no more important question to economy or society right now than whether children transmit the virus . . .

    I would assume that they do, but how hard could this possibly be to figure out? Just expose one kid to the virus, then expose that kid to other kids, and see if it is transmitted. Do that experiment a few times and the data will give you the answer.

    I am sure that experiment is considered “unethical” or something, even though we know children are in no danger. We are just institutionally dumb about everything.

    • Replies: @The Alarmist
  16. If the schools don’t re-open in September, they’re certainly not going to be re-opened in January, during cold and flu season. So then you’re looking at Sept. 2021. Or maybe kids should just find a tradesman or contractor in their neighborhood and serve an apprenticeship.

    At any rate, don’t spend too much effort parsing children’s health stats — the major question could be whether teachers’ unions will agree to come back.

    • Agree: PennTothal
    • Replies: @education realist
  17. Correct my recollection here but didn’t Warren Wilhelm delay in closing schools in the epicenter of the Bat Flu Boogaloo due to the effects of racial inequality or somesuch where the primary concern was the schools discharging their function in providing no fewer than two meals per day to “underserved” populations?

    My surmise is that the Cynthia Nixon cohort of public school parents probably auto-quarantined their precious Austins and Penelopes well before this, but there should be some sort of useful data that could be derived from school attendance records and contact tracing, no?

    If the kids at ground zero of the outbreak in the U.S. didn’t spread the virus to their parents and grandparents in clusters – particularly if parents of kids who attended schools were infected – could we not postulate that kids don’t really contract/get sick and/or don’t spread the virus at a significant enough rate to justify school closings? (Or, the opposite which justifies continued school closings?)

    • Replies: @Farenheit
  18. @peterike

    Short version: it works. It always worked. The perfidy behind the deliberate propaganda campaign against it will likely never see the light of day.

    The morons at the New York Times are still omitting the dozens of positive case studies, telling people there is “no evidence” it works, and claiming that it’s dangerous because a Democrat activist used fishtank cleaner to kill her husband (probably).

    • Replies: @BenKenobi
    , @Known Fact
  19. Anon[845] • Disclaimer says:

    It’s not the kids that will cause problems for schools. It’s the teachers. The kids likely won’t get sick, but their teachers will because they’re older. If all the teachers are out sick at the rate of the medical personel in a hospital that’s getting slammed, schools will not be able to function. This will kill some teachers, especially those who are older with pre-existing conditions, like being fat or diabetic, or those with high blood pressure (I would think 100% of all teachers would have high blood pressure just from trying to deal with the little monsters.) Older teachers are in a high enough risk bracket that they’re not going to be able to teach.

    • Replies: @Polynikes
    , @Western
  20. BenKenobi says:

    British Colombia is reopening schools on June 1 on a strictly voluntary basis with all sorts of schedule staggering to keep various age cohorts as separate as possible. This is basically a test for what is hoped to be a full reopening for September.

    Stay tuned!

  21. @Buzz Mohawk

    Buzz, we allowed public education to become Big Business. The BPS District’s budget this year topped one billion dollars. Teachers unions are some of the biggest contributors to politicians. Politicians, for the most part, never ran a business, and yet politicians and teachers have secured their income. Berkeley is talking about opening up next year with 12 students to a class. That works, but of course you will need more teachers. One of the biggest components of education is the socialization of students. They have lost half a year of that in the schools, but I see them biking and roller blading by all day. I know of no child who has died from this, but a close aquaintant’s son took his own life a few weeks back. Tough when you have no job to absorb time, no girl friend and no place to socialize.

  22. Mr. Anon says:

    A huge question that needs to be studied very quickly is how many people have died and or are going to die due to not going to the emergency room or other side-effects (e.g., lockdown-induced suicides or drug overdoses) that are because of the social-political response to the disease rather than to the disease itself?

    And who is going to study that? The CDC? The state governments of California or New York? Do you think the NIH is going to be quick to hand out grants to people who want to find out just how badly the government over-reacted? Do you think Donald Trump, Gavin Newsome, Mario Cuomo, Gretchen Whitmer, Phil Murphy, or Anthony Fauci want to know?

    Another question that ought to be asked is why a radical, never-before-used policy was implemented and what the actual origins of that policy were. Had you heard the term “social distancing” before three months ago? Had almost anyone?

    Fauci routine pooh-poohs HCL because it was never subjected to controlled, double-blind clinical trials. Were society-wide lockdowns every submitted to controlled, double-blind clinical trials?

    • Replies: @botazefa
  23. BenKenobi says:
    @Hypnotoad666

    That broad is a pretty shrewd operator: get rid of hubby with plausible deniability while striking a righteous blow against the Bad Orange Man.

    Never let a crisis go to waste.

    • Replies: @NOTA
  24. JimB says:

    Let the governors decide whether to open schools and see what happens. Like Amazon, states can give teachers an additional $2 an hour danger pay.

  25. Thoughts says:

    You can’t know the answer to that question. You can have instinct towards the answer only.

    Here’s the bottom line…we signed up for 2 weeks of lockdown for 1 reason…to flatten the curve.

    We did that. We succeeded. That’s it. That’s all that should have been done.

    Now it’s political. There’s nothing going on past politics here and anyone who pretends we are still worried about ‘health’ is stupid.

    And for the HBD chicks and Steve Sailers…I recommend reading Cambria Will Not Yield…cuz you are in that territory now.

    Furthermore, this is a big wake-up call about how our Government has gotten way too much power over our lives to the point of madness and hostility.

    Open the schools, stop destroying lives. And tell the British teachers in the UK they need to man-up and go back to work instead of demanding insanely unreasonable PPE.

    We are still arguing about Hydroxycholoroquine and Trump. All media outlets should be quickly and rapidly burned to the ground.

  26. Anon[845] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jedi Night

    The whole idea that kids can’t spread a disease is nonsense. They can spread any disease the same way adults can spread any disease. Kids are not a separate species. Kids may not show symptoms, but they can still spread illness.

  27. peterike says:

    This just in!

    Annie Glenn, widow of astronaut John Glenn, dead at 100 from coronavirus

    Chalk it up as another ‘Rona death!

    https://nypost.com/2020/05/19/john-glenns-widow-annie-glenn-dead-at-100-from-coronavirus/

    • Replies: @fish
    , @YetAnotherAnon
  28. @epebble

    epebble, I have one new grand daughter and my daughter and her husband have been basically prisoners at home, as he now works from home. Not good. Have three other grand children whose schools are providing in home online schooling. Online is two hours per day or less, after all the glitches and for my grand daughter in Bucks County,Pa., just four days a week, Mon.through Thursday. Full pay checks and benefits for the teachers of course. And, because I need my daily California agita, the Berkeley teachers have already said their are not paid to develop a new system during the summer. They have a contract you know.

  29. @Hypnotoad666

    WOR’s Mark Simone has long been NYC’s ultimate man-about-town, and when he says he knows a lot of Manhattan doctors I believe it. Upscale white doctors, not the imported variety. And they tell him they’re not only using HCQ with great success but are taking it themselves. Could the NYT be bothered to make the same phone calls?

    Simone does caution listeners that a doctor must check your heart and survey your other meds before putting you on the stuff. But as he put it, if Fauci God forbid got sick today he’d be on HCQ tomorrow.

    • Agree: Travis
  30. Mr. Anon says:
    @Peter Akuleyev

    The evidence, at least in Europe, is that there has been a massive DROP in deaths because of the lock down. A decrease in car accidents, bar fights and work accidents obviously makes intuitive sense (and sort of underlines how much risk we take for granted when it is just part of our life style).

    So obviously we should make these lockdowns permanent to lock in those beneficial effects. I mean, after all, if it saves just one life…………. Or are the lives of people who die in car accidents, bar fights, and work accidents not as important as the lives of people who die in nursing homes?

    What has puzzled doctors is that heart attacks and strokes seem to have dropped dramatically as well, possibly because a lot of people just find life more stressful than they realize.

    Or because a lot of heart attacks and strokes are now registered as COVID-19 deaths. We’ve heard a lot recently about thrombosis being a COVID-19 symptom – mostly in the US and the UK. Funny that we didn’t hear much about it, if anything, when COVID was raging in Italy and Spain. Here’s an alternate theory: the US and the UK have unhealthier populations with a lot of people who don’t exercise and get little physical acitivity apart from going to work. So what happens to them when they aren’t going to work, but are confined at home for eight weeks, sitting on their couch, perhaps getting dehydrated, and eating too much and drinking too much booze?

    • Replies: @Peter Frost
    , @Anon
  31. In this season of lockdown and shutdown,
    Put that rock down and sit your big butt down …

    Thousands get lacerations and fractures
    Triggered by Dookypuss’es contracture*;
    In layman’s terms, people are shitfaced
    And git violent whenever they git ’faced.

    *“Dookypuss’es contracture” is a pun on Dupuytren’s contracture, or John Elway’s disease.

    • Replies: @Coemgen
  32. res says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Children have to go back to school when the next school year begins.

    I think it would be much better to send them back now and learn what happens. If things start to blow up then it means we need to be very careful in the fall. Much better to find that out now with warm weather upon us and schools due to shut in a month anyway than at the beginning of a new school year heading into flu season.

    • Agree: YetAnotherAnon
    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
  33. Paul Rise says:

    Open schools August 15 for any student who doesn’t live with high risk people.

    If there aren’t significant outbreaks, two weeks later allow kids who have lower risk high risk people – for example, people who are aged 50 – 60 with no serious underlying health issues, back to school.

    If everything is good after 4 weeks, let the vast majority of kids back, unless they are in a house with high risk high risk people – currently in chemo, HIV+, super elderly – 85+ etc.

    Throughout this, the kids not back in school just do whatever they did the last 2 months.

    I don’t even think this is workable – most of the parents in our school district are too dumb to understand this stuff – but something like this is how you would at least ensure most students get some sort of education.

    • Replies: @Thatgirl
  34. res says:

    Paleo Liberal posted something I thought very relevant in this comment:
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-umpteenth-telephoto-lens-shot-of-a-packed-beach-that-is-also-not-at-all-packed/#comment-3904147

    Here is my response.

    Thanks for that link. Here is the paper.
    https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/full/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00608

    It is interesting that they got such different results than what the Kinsa data seemed to show. I am not sure what to make of that. Anyone have any thoughts?

    Most of the details are in the Supplemental Materials. I thought this graphic on page 22 was useful for getting a sense of the overall timing of the countermeasures:
    SUPPLEMENTAL EXHIBIT 1
    Fraction of US Population Covered by Social Distancing Measures

    Paper abstract:

    State and local governments imposed social distancing measures in March and April of 2020 to contain the spread of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). These included large event bans, school closures, closures of entertainment venues, gyms, bars, and restaurant dining areas, and shelter-in-place orders (SIPOs). We evaluated the impact of these measures on the growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases across US counties between March 1, 2020 and April 27, 2020. An event-study design allowed each policy’s impact on COVID-19 case growth to evolve over time. Adoption of government-imposed social distancing measures reduced the daily growth rate by 5.4 percentage points after 1–5 days, 6.8 after 6–10 days, 8.2 after 11–15 days, and 9.1 after 16–20 days. Holding the amount of voluntary social distancing constant, these results imply 10 times greater spread by April 27 without SIPOs (10 million cases) and more than 35 times greater spread without any of the four measures (35 million). Our paper illustrates the potential danger of exponential spread in the absence of interventions, providing relevant information to strategies for restarting economic activity.

    • Replies: @Sean
  35. Farenheit says:

    The social security administration is very very good at recording births/deaths, and they basically have the master database of all Americans on their servers.

    I’d be interested to know what the death statistics look like over the last two months, broken down by age, of course.

    • Replies: @Lars Porsena
  36. @Buffalo Joe

    the Berkeley teachers have already said their are not paid to develop a new system during the summer. They have a contract you know.

    Probably just as well. It’s doubtful that any of them are capable of developing a usable system. Not to worry. This is a great opportunity to expand and develop home schooling. Socialization can be subcontracted to modern churches. They are available now that they have given up on Christianity and it’s outdated rules and regulations.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
  37. @res

    Okay fine, very practical. My point is that this cannot go on. Children MUST go back to school, sooner or later. The question is how soon. We cannot stop life for this.

    This is crazy, and it is not being said enough here. The new school year is the absolute limit. Sorry I can’t “show my work for this,” but I don’t need to. It would be insanity to continue this longer, to essentially end life, no matter what the numerators and denominators are.

    • Replies: @res
    , @Alice
  38. @Buzz Mohawk

    Sailer’s got some problems. But he’s not “pushing” an agenda when it comes to the virus. He’s engaged in an open discussion. It’s a bit tedious.

    “My wife. LOL. Just sayin’.”

    Is she a financial parasite like you?

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
  39. “A huge question that needs to be studied very quickly is how many people have died and or are going to die due to not going to the emergency room or other side-effects (e.g., lockdown-induced suicides or drug overdoses) that are because of the social-political response to the disease rather than to the disease itself?”

    It will be very hard to get that kind of data, at least for US hospitals, since creating such data would be tantamount to admitting responsibility in those non-COVID deaths and affixing a target on your back for tort lawyers.

    Last month, a Canadian hospital group admitted that they had probably caused a few dozen extra cardiac deaths by postponing all non-COVID treatment. As far as I can tell, whatever data underlay that was never released, so it’s hard to know how to prorate that up for all of North America, but it clearly ain’t zero.

    Anyhow, this is all subsumed within the real Big Question, IMHO, is the one you once touched on:

    How many years of life are being sacrificed, and how many years of life are being saved?

  40. OT:

    A great boomer icon dead at 76: Ken Osmond.

  41. @Hail

    “Keep the experts quiet; the Holy Media is in charge here.”

    The official 80,000 death toll is at least 25% inflated. So the more realistic toll is maybe 60,000, which is officially just a bad seasonal flu year. The median age of fatality is probably around 75, so the actual years of life lost (YLL), are probably less than a seasonal flu.

    It’s like when we invaded Iraq in search of phantom WMDs. Except this time, it was our own country that we devastated. The loss of GDP plus the multi-trillion in government debt that will have to be repaid will be dragging us down long into the future.

    It’s too late to prevent the Coronahoax debacle. But the real questions is what lessons, if any, will our society take from the hoax after the fog of disinformation and panic has started to dissipated. The axis of the Media/Academy/Bureaucracy will continue to control the Narrative at that point as well. They will try at that point to spin a new narrative of either: (a) “Our panicky fascistic takeover was the right thing to do because things would have been worse without it;” or (b) “Mistakes were made,” and “hey, look, a squirrel.”

    But the people who silenced level-headed dissent, spread disinformation and panic, and seized control at the first opportunity will need to be held fully accountable. They will do everything to avoid accountability and stay in power. And they will probably succeed. But the battle to frame the post-hoax narrative will be immensely important as well.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    , @Polynikes
    , @Hail
  42. @SunBakedSuburb

    My wife is a mathematician.

    I am your local guy who can help you: save money, get a loan, put your money in a good place. I work for an honest fee, lower than the big guys, and I don’t have their shit to sell. I am a red-pilled financial advisor. You need me.

    There are too many of us in the financial biz (though few like me) and I stumbled into this line of work. I was once a “writer,” believe it or not, working like Steve for a sales and marketing company. (Though I was much sexier and far more interesting, because I did TV and media work.)

    If I were high enough on the totem pole, I would say your insult was legitimate, but it is not. I am like George Bailey, only in a rich, celebrity-filled neighborhood.

  43. Anon[587] • Disclaimer says:

    OT

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/toilet-paper-hand-sanitzer-golf-pushcart-shortage-coronavirus-11589735390

    We’re Out of Toilet Paper, Hand Sanitizer—and Golf Pushcarts?

    Once-disparaged device is an item everybody wants after courses ban caddies and motorized carts to fight coronavirus

    By Andrew Beaton

    Robbie Gould, the San Francisco 49ers’ kicker, couldn’t believe his luck when a local store told him it had a line on a product he desperately wanted. The NFL star finally had his very own golf pushcart.

    Mr. Gould never had a pushcart because he never needed one. It is essentially a piece of metal with a few wheels attached that makes lugging a bag of clubs around a golf course slightly easier. It’s a device historically associated with grandparents who sign up for 6 a.m. tee times at local municipal courses….

    This is only the latest in an increasingly long list of things that it seems the whole country or world suddenly wants at the same time, starting with toilet paper and baking supplies (flour, vanilla) way back, progressing though pulse oximeters and infrared thermometer guns to rechargeable hair clippers, and now golf pushcarts.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
  44. Hail says: • Website
    @varsicule

    We know every Covid death within seconds of flatline, but it’s going to take months to figure out how many suicides have occurred. I’m guessing Google won’t have a link to a beautiful analytics dashboard on their homepage.

    A late-April New York Daily News independent investigation on Corona-Lockdown-era suicides in Queens implies that suicides spiked to 3x their 2019 level in the first six weeks of the ‘Lockdown’ in Queens. (Thanks to peterike for this).

    Has it held for the seventh, eighth, ninth, and tenth weeks?

    How many more weeks will the extremists hold the whip hand over us? “Suicides will increase until morale improves, you gaggle of Corona-losers. We in charge now.”

    There were 47,500 suicides in the US in 2019, up from 2012’s 39k (calculated from this).

    If several months of higher suicides pushes the full-year-2020 figure up to 2x the 2019 rate, you already are pushing towards a Corona ballpark-figure in total-body-count, from marginal suicides alone, before the recession hits in earnest.

    Measured in aggregate-life-years lost, these Lockdown-suicides alone could really easily just swamp the Corona Deaths the media loves so much, around which the media centers the bizarre religious rituals of its Corona Cult. And these Lockdown-suicides are a small part of the excess-mortality caused by the Corona-Response.

    Should have listened to Ioannidis in March.

    • Agree: moshe, Mike Tre
    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    , @Hypnotoad666
  45. Corvinus says:
    @Hypnotoad666

    “The official 80,000 death toll is at least 25% inflated.”

    Sources?

    “It’s too late to prevent the Coronahoax debacle.”

    It wasn’t a hoax. It was a debacle that Trump did not take it as seriously as he needed to.

    “But the real questions is what lessons, if any, will our society take from the hoax after the fog of disinformation and panic has started to dissipated.”

    Not disinformation, just differences in opinion regarding available information and data.

    “But the people who silenced level-headed dissent, spread disinformation and panic, and seized control at the first opportunity will need to be held fully accountable.”

    So how do you propose to hold those individuals “fully accountable”?

    • Replies: @Coemgen
  46. Hail says: • Website
    @varsicule

    each death must be carefully investigated to determine its cause

    Blasphemy!!

    How dare you. I mean, I —

    Oh. He’s talking about suicides. By those corona-negative losers.

    Carry on.

    • Replies: @Sam Malone
  47. Elsewhere says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Yeah, it’s a bit weird that Steve wrote a whole article recommending Bill Gates to be the corona czar, and now that’s what he is.

    Hopefully, America is full of obscure but hugely competent experts on epidemiology and management who will come to the forefront in the coming weeks. But I can’t think of any celebrity epidemiologists. So, if I try to think of the American who has the highest combination of: Name recognition Proven organization track record Knowledge of epidemiology I come up with Bill Gates.

    More spooky, I can no longer access this article on UR.
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/which-american-would-make-the-best-corona-czar/
    The link above should go to the article mentioned, but it redirects to this Pat Buchanan article instead: “Reining in the Rogue Royal of Arabia”.

    • Replies: @Elsewhere
  48. @Buzz Mohawk

    Actually, we have a pretty good idea of how many people will die from suicides. Steve just doesn’t like to talk about it – though he’s at least acknowledging some of the lockdown damage now.

    https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/acquainted-the-night/202003/will-covid-19-make-the-suicide-crisis-worse

    Regardless, not being able to bring up the economic damage as though that’s just too horribly insensitive is insane. People’s lives are being derailed, damage that will take years to fix, if ever. (Workers in the Depression never fully recovered economically.)

    Where did the Steve Sailer we all loved and respected go? He’s seems to be coming out of the Covid coma, which is great, but we need more from him.

    • Replies: @HA
  49. res says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Sorry. You are getting it from all sides and I know how that feels (the curse of trying to find a moderate and sensible position). FWIW I agree with much of what you are saying and am glad you are speaking up.

    • Thanks: Buzz Mohawk, A123
    • Replies: @A123
  50. Hail says: • Website
    @Mike Whitney

    Closing schools also blunts the herd immunity mechanism.

    Closing schools is therefore not only unnecessary, it is demonstrably a bad thing in terms of disease prevention here.

    __________

    You know, we ought not need by now, months into the epidemic, to take any particular person’s word for it. We have good, large-sample-size data in hand:

    Share of total corona-positive deaths by birth cohort, Sweden
    (n=3,678 at time of calculation, two days ago)

    b.1920s, about 24.5% of deaths (incl. a small few b.1910s centenarians)
    b.1930s, about 41.5% of deaths
    b.1940s, about 22.5%
    b.1950s, about 7%
    b.1960s, about 3%
    b.1970s, about 1%
    b.1980s, about 0.3%
    b.1990s, 2000s, 2010s, 0%.

    That’s right, amazingly there are zero deaths so far to anyone born in 1990 or later.

    Practically zero deaths to anyone of early to mid working age, few deaths to those of older working age. 91% of the corona-positive deaths were to those of retirement age.

    As for the school children, not even close to a threat. And these are Swedes, so all have been attending school during this time.

    • Agree: Alice
  51. Coemgen says:
    @Corvinus

    It was a debacle that Trump did not take it as seriously as he needed to.

    Prove this statement. Provide original sources. Contrast and compare with someone who did “take it seriously.”

    Remember when President Donald Trump referenced the pandemic, apparently originating in Wuhan China, during his 2020 State of the Union speech – a speech that Nancy Pelosi unceremoniously tore in half?

    Why wasn’t Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer and, the “Intelligence Community,” demanding that Trump close the borders in January to slow down the spread of the pandemic? Oh, yeah don’t forget to add “the Media” – where was “the Media” – don’t they have any sources in Wuhan China?

    Coemgenus

  52. A huge question that needs to be studied very quickly is how many people have died and or are going to die due to not going to the emergency room or other side-effects (e.g., lockdown-induced suicides or drug overdoses) that are because of the social-political response to the disease rather than to the disease itself?

    Steve, did you just now think of this? That’s pretty damn obvious stuff that the “hoaxers” have been noting and pointing out since this LOCKDOWN stuff started. I’m sorry, man, but didn’t you read some of your more illustrious commenters here … plus me? Do you believe those entrenched, special-interest lyin’-sacks-o-shit in the US Feral Gov’t over your own commenters?

    I really want to know something about your strange blind trust this time in governments and media of all sorts. I will write another comment that should have been under your last telephoto lens post, but that one was getting old.

  53. @Buzz Mohawk

    Switzerland and Austria have opened their schools this week. In order to see what happens, just as res writes.

    A Swiss school teacher is a writer too, Alain Pichard. On the German Die Achse des Guten he wrote he wrote: I’m a school teacher, and I want to go back to my kids and do my work. That’s who I am. I’m 65 years old now. If I really would have to suffer from CO-19 while doing my job, and even if I would have to die: Then this would be it (I’m paraphrasing from memory). – He concluded that he’d be happy to go back to work and yes, his motto always was: A Working Class Hero is something to be.

    But then he added that in his region, the bilingual Biel (German/French, ca. 100 000 inhabitants) there were three new infections during the last two weeks.
     
    https://www.achgut.com/artikel/an_alle_lehrer_kolleginnen_und_kollegen_jetzt_sind_wir_dran

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  54. Steve,

    The Atlanta Fed’s current Nowcast for annualized GDP growth for the 2nd quarter is -41.9%. Let that sink in for a minute. Small businesses are burning whatever cash they have, will barely make it into the summer and have no ability to tap lines of liquidity. Major corporations would face the same thing except the Fed has intervened. (And even they are grabbing whatever liquidity they can get in case the bond market freezes up again.)

    Businesses are getting tapped out. They simply can’t handle another shut down of this magnitude for this long. It. Won’t. Happen.

    The gov’t won’t impose a second lockdown in the fall outside of a true Black Death situation, which this most definitely is not, because they simply can’t. You risk destroying the system. We’re tapping out businesses and the credit markets now. They won’t hold up to this again. They’re out of gas.

    There will be school in the fall because parents need to go to work.

    • Replies: @Whiskey
  55. @Buzz Mohawk

    “I am like George Bailey”

    Yeah, you’re right. Local guys like you can serve a purpose. When I think of finance my mind leaps to Goldman Sachs and the other titans.

    “TV and media work”

    Scribes make good money off the scripted network shows. But then there’s the reality of the writer’s room, and the looming shadow of the black lesbian showrunner.

  56. Anon[805] • Disclaimer says:

    My relative, who works in a Newark NJ hospital, reports a large spike in family members accidentally “falling on knives” since the lock down started

    • Replies: @Redneck farmer
  57. @Mike Whitney

    Thank you for the great article of your own, Mr. Whitney. (I commented over there.) You seem to not want to toot your own horn, so here is Mr. Whitney’s post for anyone else interested – https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/is-the-lockdown-is-the-greatest-policy-disaster-in-u-s-history/#comments . Short answer – it’s gotta be in the top 5. (Gotta be lower than the Hart-Cellar Act, the Great Society, and perhaps the legalization of Disco.)

    I write this because most here may very well not know who you are and that you write here (other than the light-yellow background just now). I sure didn’t till about a month back. Also, please avoid the confusion with this guy and one Whitney Webb who’s also been writing about the Kung Flu here on unz.

    PS: Just read from commenter E.H. Hail that Mr. Whitney is a lefty of some sort – strange alliance here indeed.

  58. A123 says:
    @res

    Both you and Buzz are being sensible.

    — Healthy children are at minimal risk, so there is no reason to prevent normal school opening from occurring in the fall.
    — Various contracts and other issues probably prevent widespread completion of the abandoned school year. However, where possible it would be helpful for summer school to pull in children as Proof of Concept.
    — Children with preexisting conditions need specific evaluation. Asthma is a good reason to keep a child out of school. However, what about diabetes?

    The grey area is where other household members have preexisting conditions. Do you hold a healthy child out of school to protect grandma? And if so, for how long?

    PEACE 😷

    • Replies: @Thatgirl
  59. RudyM says:

    There was this short write-up about excess non-COVID-19 deaths in England and Wales: “Covid-19: “Staggering number” of extra deaths in community is not explained by covid-19”:

    https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1931

  60. moshe says:

    OT:

    SSC linked to this:

    https://freebeacon.com/latest-news/woman-who-ingested-fish-tank-cleaner-was-prolific-donor-to-democratic-causes/

    https://www.nationalreview.com/news/woman-who-blamed-trump-after-giving-her-husband-fish-tank-cleaner-now-under-investigation-for-murder/

    Steve, when the media demonstrates every single day that it is SOOOOOO blatantly dishonest for your side shouldn’t you reconsider whether you’re on the right side?

  61. @Farenheit

    Best I can do right now:

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

    2017 and 2018, 2.8M total deaths in the US each year.

    • Replies: @Farenheit
    , @res
  62. Sean says:
    @res

    “Adoption of government-imposed social distancing measures” cannot be separated from prior and contemporaneous self-imposed social distancing under media bombardment of new and mounting deaths from a deadly infection. Surely a substantial proportion (say ’bout a third) of people are intelligent enough to decide to distance off their own bat using media information.

    Distancing started long before the government did anything and went of parallel to the government mandated measures. That is why the two schools’ of thought’s mathematical and theoretical models massively overestimated the extent to which herd immunity had been reached, and the magnitude of deaths without government action respectively.

  63. @HallParvey

    Hall, thank you for the reply. There is still hope for Christianity, but maybe not all churches.Stay safe.

  64. Polynikes says:
    @A123

    The tie is to preexisting conditions, not directly to age.

    This is almost certainly not true. It ties to age quite perfectly. That’s not to say that co-morbidities are not part of the equation, as well. It very much seems they are.

    But there can be little doubt this ties to age. Moreso than the regular flu which kills way more kids than this particular covid.

    • Replies: @res
  65. @Hypnotoad666

    Just expose one kid to the virus, then expose that kid to other kids, and see if it is transmitted…. I am sure that experiment is considered “unethical” or something, even though we know children are in no danger.

    Back in the day, we had Chicken Pox parties, and occasionally the same for measles and mumps. The thinking was to make sure the child caught these while young, because these diseases would be far more dangerous if left unexperienced until a later age. A lot of anti-vaxers are still doing it, much to the consternation of those who want your children to have 35 sum-odd doses of 13 vaccinations before they are five. A pox party was certainly cheaper.

  66. anon[323] • Disclaimer says:

    Churches in Oregon sued to halt their governor’s orders. A state judge ruled in their favor and set aside the entire emergency order. The Oregon governor went to Twidder with “science” stuff and states she will appeal to the Oregon supreme court.

    https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/498392-oregon-judge-halts-statewide-health-restrictions

    This part is very interesting:

    The Oregon judge ruled that Brown needed the state legislature to approve emergency declarations beyond 28 days.

    I did a bit of search and found out that my flyover state has similar language: emergency orders / declarations automatically end after 30 days. This makes sense under the Federal system because after a while it’s time for the legislature to decide policy, not the governor, because an emergency that goes on for months is no longer an emergency, it’s a condition. Sort of how sudden-onset illness is “acute” but when it goes on for months it becomes “chronic”.

    I wonder how many other states have similar language? I mean, aside from one-party diktat-lands like California, New York, Illinois, and so forth. If so, the time is arriving for governors to step back and let their legislatures take up the issue.

  67. Barnard says:
    @Buffalo Joe

    Right, the purpose of public schools is not to educate children, it is a jobs program for a certain class of people and a method of indoctrination. The people in education pushing to keep schools closed are concerned about themselves as school employees, not about the impact this is having on children or their health.

    • Agree: bomag
    • Replies: @Ganderson
    , @Buffalo Joe
  68. @Hail

    The figure of aggregate-life-years lost is an interesting one.

    Hail, if this thing was a trial and one would have to list the anti-lockdown arguments by now – what do you think would be the most important ones?

    My list so far would be:

    1) Don’t overestimate the special occurrences in Bergamo, Mulhouse, and Madrid (these extreme situations will not happen again – not in Europe or the US)

    2) The treatment of CO-19 has improved, thus the threat is not what it used to be.

    3) The death count has not been correct. The distinction between death by CO-19 and with CO-19 has to be made carefully in order to really understand how deadly CO-19 is.

    4) There is not just one virus but different kinds of CO-19 with a different death toll)

    5) The second wave might be milder because lots of the very vulnerable have died by now.

    6) As the really cool Johan Giesecke (former boss of Anders Tegnell in Sweden) pointed out: Care homes for the elderly should have been treated with much more caution – this is a field which can and should be improved greatly (for example: It is still not the case, that the body temperature of care home workers are measured routinely before they start work. And lots of them still don’t wear masks).

    Here is Johan Giesecke:

  69. Polynikes says:
    @Anon

    Quite unlikely. Most teachers can retire pretty generously by age 60. Certainly very few persist past 65 and none really have to. It’s a young persons’s game aided by nice pensions to the ones who make it to retirement age.

    Median age = 41 (avg is 42, so a few older teachers hang on skew it up).

    81% are under the age of 55.

    I’d be willing to be that number jumps to the mid 90’s or higher for teaches under the age of 65. Unless, they are severly unhealthy, you’re not going to see a rash of teachers dropping dead; at least not much moreso than any other particularly bad flu season.

    https://nces.ed.gov/surveys/sass/tables/sass1112_2013314_t1s_002.asp

    • Agree: Ron Mexico
    • Replies: @Ganderson
  70. Anonymous[374] • Disclaimer says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    I am your local guy who can help you: save money, get a loan, put your money in a good place. I work for an honest fee, lower than the big guys, and I don’t have their shit to sell. I am a red-pilled financial advisor. You need me.

    Does financial advice from a red-pilled financial advisor differ from that given out by non-red-pilled ones? In what ways might it differ?

    There are too many of us in the financial biz (though few like me) and I stumbled into this line of work.

    How did you train yourself and acquire the know how to do the job? Do you recommend the CFP exam?

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
  71. Anonymous[374] • Disclaimer says:
    @Dieter Kief

    But then he added that in his region, the bilingual Biel (German/French, ca. 100 000 inhabitants) there were three new infections during the last two weeks.

    Is that a lot? Few?

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
  72. Polynikes says:
    @Hypnotoad666

    The official 80,000 death toll is at least 25% inflated.

    That’s about what Colorado estimated. They revised theirs downwards last week to eliminate the people who died “with” Coronavirus. Good on them for the honest work. That’s the one Dem. lead state that went back to work.

    Although, I don’t know if it was altruistic on Colorado’s part. They were getting beat up a little in the news over the man who was sent to the hospital with a .55 blood alcohol level and somehow beat alcohol poisoning only to die of corona virus that same night. Embarrassingly enough, the coroner caught the fraudulent death certificate and the press found out. https://www.foxnews.com/health/colorado-man-died-alcohol-poisoning-death-classified-coronavirus-report

  73. Farenheit says:
    @Alec Leamas (hard at work)

    “Bat Flu Boogaloo”..that’s good. I’ve taken to calling it the “Wuhan Tiara Flu”.

  74. @Buzz Mohawk

    Duh.

    Collect the relevant data and do a cost-benefit analysis to decide what policy to pursue. It’s so crazy, it just might work.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
  75. Peter Frost says: • Website
    @Mr. Anon

    Here’s an alternate theory: the US and the UK have unhealthier populations with a lot of people who don’t exercise and get little physical acitivity apart from going to work. So what happens to them when they aren’t going to work, but are confined at home for eight weeks, sitting on their couch, perhaps getting dehydrated, and eating too much and drinking too much booze?

    In that case, we would see a time lag between the rise in COVID-19 deaths and the rise in excess mortality. We don’t.

    • Replies: @Cortes
    , @Mr. Anon
  76. Jack D says:

    But I’d like to know the answer.

    Fundamentally these answers are unknowable and therefore more political than scientific. You can never determine how many people died because they did NOT go to the hospital and how many people committed suicide 5 years from now because their careers or businesses were derailed in 2020. You can’t even know how many people died OF coronavirus as opposed to WITH coronavirus. In places like NY they are attributing as many deaths as possible to coronavirus for political purposes. Elsewhere they may be attributing as FEW as possible. Even cause of death is subject to politicization.

    The bottom line is that fascism (either in the guise of socialism or national socialism) is the default form of government in the modern age – “everything within the state, nothing without the state.” Under fascism, EVERYTHING is politicized by the State or in order to influence the State because what the State does (or does not do) is of great importance to every transaction.

  77. @epebble

    “A Big Question”

    — Kids not in school getting PC indoctrination.
    — Kids getting more time with their parents.
    — Mom’s–who were ignorant–learning how to bake cookies and liking it.
    — More moms and dads home together …
    — More kids on the way?

    What’s not to like?

  78. fish says:
    @peterike

    Yeah….without the absolute incompetence of the Tangerine Tornado she might have made it to 15o!

    Tragic, cheated out the best 50 years of her life!

  79. ATCD says:

    Living in Amsterdam. Kids under 12 back in school half time for last 12 days. Waiting to see what happens before older kids do/dont return.
    The fact that you have to live with risk doesn’t seem to phase the Dutch – byproduct of being below sea level?

  80. @Buzz Mohawk

    Children have to go back to school when the next school year begins

    No, no they don’t.

  81. Off topic: Apparently it’s Malcolm X’s birthday today and on Twitter his name is trending as “Malcom”. A fitting tribute to his fanbase, I think.

  82. Corvinus says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    “After all their commendable writings about the MSM, American Pravda, and other things like this, their facilitation of this panic narrative just doesn’t make sense.”

    Probably because they clearly understand Covid-19 is NOT a hoax. They are promoting discussion.

    “And don’t fall for their implicit demands for numbers, numbers, numbers. Math is a wonderful thing, and they are using it as a weapon.”

    As a weapon to make informed decisions, indeed.

    “My wife can kick their ass at math. My wife. LOL. Just sayin’.”

    Anyone can say anything on the Internet. So why not have a contest?

  83. @peterike

    That’s sad news. One of the best parts of The Right Stuff is when LBJ (then VP) wants to visit Annie while Glenn is sat on the launchpad, she says no, they ring Glenn up and put her on the line to persuade her to let LBJ in.

    “Look, if you don’t want the vice president or the TV networks or anyone else to come into the house, then that’s it, as far as I’m concerned, they are not coming in — and I will back you all the way, 100 percent.”

    Here’s to the soul of Annie, The Rock!

  84. moshe says:
    @Peter Akuleyev

    As I have always said, The Lockdown has actual causes DIFFERENT from the claimed ones.

    Society NEEDED a break from the usual.

    This is a different issue than whether masks should be a part of the new normal.

    What the lockdown demonstrates is that we in the west can survive on A LOT less work.

    All we need is:

    1. NO NEW IMMIGRATION

    2. All Social Welfare Projects CANCELLED AND REPLACED

    A. Healthcare for all
    B. UBI of $1,500/mo (+$300 per child)
    C. Nothing Else

    Our economy would quickly start churning again with a happier workforce of people who know they are there by choice.

    The proximate cause for The Lockdown was no more the cause of it than Herschel Greenspan being the cause of the Holocaust or Gavrilo Princip being the cause of World War One.

    Society needed an excuse to Rethink Things and that was coming one way or the other.

    Hopefully this rethinking includes my suggestions rather than universal masking and vaccine passports.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @Lot
  85. I wonder what will happen if the shutdown continues for a few years/decades. A civil war between the young ones and the old-timers ? Children of the corn situation ? Could be a fun movie. Young rebels robbed of their future vs evil octogenarians aided by killer robots and/or middle-aged collaborators ? Certainly more realistic than Wakanda. Can I patent my idea and sell it to Harvey ?

  86. Clyde says:

    This fall we will get thousands of public school teachers who will refuse to enter classrooms but will demand their salaries anyways. They will claim that their students will infect them with Covid 19. They should take HCQ each day and report for work. Trump said he takes zinc with HCQ. Some homeowners nail zinc strips to their roof to kill molds, moss and lichens. This can happen with roofs that have trees shading them. Also in the Pacific NW will all their wet and rainy days.

    You are absolutely right that zinc and copper strips work to prevent and to kill exisiting moss and lichens. Several companies make strips that slip under a shingle course leaving a band exposed. As rainwater runs over the metal strip it washes some of the metal ions over the roof shingles below inhibiting growth.

    • Replies: @education realist
  87. @Hail

    An interview with Wittkowski from four days ago:

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/15/we-could-open-up-again-and-forget-the-whole-thing/

    Please end this endless nonsensical discussion now, and listen to this real expert.

    As Buzz Mohawk asks: why are Sailer and Unz hunkering down with an obviously and utterly failed and disastrous and never justified or sensible “policy”?

    It is a very serious question, and makes one doubt their bona fides from the very start.

    They are with the dark side on this, and by now they must now it.

    And yet they continue.

    • Agree: Alice
    • Thanks: Buzz Mohawk
    • Replies: @James Speaks
    , @Hail
    , @Lot
  88. @Hail

    Here’s a thought experiment: What would happen if the people forcing us to take “Lockdown” as a treatment for coronavirus had to meet the FDA approval process before forcing us to involuntarily take their “medicine?”

    There are no double-blind studies showing that Lockdown even works at all. And there is a lot of data — such as comparisons between lockdown and non-lockdown jurisdictions — suggesting it isn’t efficacious at all.

    Meanwhile, side effects of Lockdown include poverty, death, drug abuse, unemployment, and depression.

    The Lockdowners tell us that there is “no evidence” that Hydrochloroquine works despite massive observational data that it does. They also say it is too dangerous because it might, possibly have some mild side-effects. If they followed their own standards (which, of course, they never do), they would have to concede that Lockdown is bad medicine that should not be prescribed.

  89. Travis says:

    wow.so far sweden's all cause deaths from mid feb to end of april (weeks 10-20) is actually below average for anyone under 65.during peak COVID spike.with no lockdowns…. pic.twitter.com/ijHvs7oVnW— el gato malo (@boriquagato) May 19, 2020

  90. njguy73 says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    No, I won’t suggest that your wife start her own homeschooling co-op over Zoom. I won’t suggest that she buy a copy of the Saxon math curriculum, partner with another smart woman with a copy of the Robinson Curriculum, and educate kids better than public schools.

    Not me. I would never say that.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
  91. peterike says:

    OT: Bye bye Handsy Joe.

    Phone Calls Between Biden And Ukraine’s Poroshenko Leaked; Details $1 Billion “Quid Pro Quo” To Fire Burisma Prosecutor

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/phone-calls-between-quid-pro-joe-biden-and-ukraines-poroshenko-leak-explicitly-details

  92. Anonymous[374] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jack D

    In places like NY they are attributing as many deaths as possible to coronavirus for political purposes.

    Please explain this theory.

  93. J.Ross says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Prediction: the data on lockdown suicides will see attempted memory hole obfuscation far beyond mere white rape and murder victims. Officially there will be none. “In China, there are no murders.” “In Whitmeria, there are no suicides.” A caller to Prager said that her husband has seen or dealt with three in one location.

  94. @AnotherDad

    Kids are so lucky to live through CoronaHoax. A teenage boy I know is absolutely loving it, he hopes it goes on til he’s 18 so he never returns to school.

    Had this happened in my teen years, I woulda got my homework done in less than an hour and spent the rest of my day playing videogames, tennis, and basketball, maybe a little D&D. School’s out forever.

    “Normally, if you have an epidemic, you shut the schools.” – Sailer

    Absolutely false premise. That never happened in your life or mine.

    • Replies: @Coemgen
    , @Anon
  95. “But I’d like to know the answer.”

    We all would. The mental/emotional aspects of the lockdown is one that we don’t hear about too often–in part because it’s too inconvenient to Big Media– but in my opinion the longer the lockdown continues this problem will loom larger and larger. Economically we are fast approaching numbers which resemble the Great Depression. At that time FDR employed the federal government to stave off what could have potentially become a full blown revolution similar to what happened in Russia in 1917 and Germany in 1933 (that was the administration’s greatest fear). The administration had the resources available to them at that time. They may not be available this time around. If so, the Covid virus may turn to be secondary, if one can believe that.

  96. Barnard says:

    A huge question that needs to be studied very quickly is how many people have died and or are going to die due to not going to the emergency room or other side-effects (e.g., lockdown-induced suicides or drug overdoses) that are because of the social-political response to the disease rather than to the disease itself?

    People have been asking these questions from the beginning of the lockdowns. A good first step would be a swift rebuke of the people who have thrown out terms like “virus deniers” “virus hoaxers” and “murderers” in response to these questions. This will allow for a more open discussion of what is appropriate public policy. It is impossible to answer these questions with any certainty as there is no way to know how many years of life these people lost to the virus reaction. Would they have had a heart attack or stroke or committed suicide based on some other trigger if the lockdowns would have never happened? There will never be good data on these questions.

    The error so far has clearly been in the direction of keeping the public afraid. As an example, I read a news report of a private school who conducted their high school graduation for their senior class of 8 over the weekend. Attendance was limited to immediate family only and they were required to social distance. Most of those in attendance wore masks. There have been 3 Covid 19 cases in the county where this small town is located and the active cases have been at zero for over two weeks. Virus hysteria marred a milestone day for these kids.

    The mainstream media would need to walk back a lot of their panic porn in order to reach an effective result here. Governors who continue to promote shutdowns will need to be forced to acknowledge reality and encourage their residents to get regular medical treatment for chronic and serious conditions. I don’t see either group being swayed by data since their response is mostly emotional to begin with. Public pressure for a long term shutdown and social distancing will do far more harm to the public long term than the virus. People need to be encouraged to seek out others and get on with their lives while properly assessing their own vulnerabilities. People who feel they are at higher risk can continue to isolate, wear masks, etc., as they feel it is necessary, which may change from week to week depending on where they live. There is no case for a continued shutdown.

  97. J.Ross says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    To this point, “relapses are through the roof.” Federalist is worth a daily look, though in a sense it’s “worse” than Breitbart as it’s pure opinion (Breitnart’s unforgivable sin supposedly is having both news and opinion, like Fox, and not flat out lies, like MSNBC). The thing is, it’s opinion pieces like Heather MacDonald does, far more factual than a CNN “news” piece.
    https://thefederalist.com/2020/05/19/relapses-are-through-the-roof-overdoses-are-through-the-roof-how-the-pandemic-is-upping-substance-abuse/

  98. @Hypnotoad666

    There are people who do that kind of thing all the time, sometimes late into the night here, even. Why don’t they do it?

    We collectively pay $billions (now $trillions) in my country toward budgets that include plenty of people whose full time jobs are to do things like that.

    Great universities too, with $billions in endowments, employ professors who can do these things too. Don’t you think among all that somebody would do exactly what you proposed (and what I have been suggesting here for months!)?

    Balance the costs of fighting this coronavirus against the benefits. That’s all. Just figure that out.

    As with charity, I feel no pressing need to push myself to do or give what others can and should do and give in spades — sheer, multiple magnitudes — beyond anything I can do. I have only my most excellent intuition and my own “noticing” ability to guide me. I am right, and I know it. What disgusts me now it how those with the means to do something, to do exactly what you are describing, are not doing it.

    Though I already know the answer. Their work would only be necessary to convince others less perceptive. The stupid people. Yes, the stupid people. Cows all of them.

    Clown world, indeed.

  99. dr kill says:
    @Daniel Williams

    You’re making assumptions for others about quality of life, Scooter.

    • Replies: @Daniel Williams
  100. New sign today on our local walking/jogging/biking trail — masks now mandatory, order of Gov. Cuomo. This is not Central Park, mind you, we’re two hours north of Manhattan, semi-rural-suburban-small town. Masks mandatory outdoors? Is there any science to this? Next it will be your street, and then your home.

  101. BigTony says:

    Weirdly age related? Is that the case? After 3 months of this clusterf**k I’m under the impression that the known target groups are exactly as expected. You can’t expect a member of the public to know that beforehand, but any senior professional in the cdc should of been reassuring the public from the beginning not fearmongering.

  102. @AnotherDad

    In many primitive cultures, people have this worldview where there are not any naturally-caused misfortunes. Everything has to have a human cause and thus a human or group of humans to blame. So if you’re sick, someone put the evil eye on you. Famine? It’s caused by witchcraft. The theories don’t usually have much logic, it’s not explained how witches gain by causing a famine.

    The corona deniers are facing these lockdowns and it doesn’t occur to them that this might be a natural disaster, with no one to blame. They’ve decided to blame the media. You point out that the lockdowns make it harder to do much of what the media wanted to do, and they aren’t going to listen, because these are fundamentally irrational people.

    • Agree: utu, James Speaks, AKAHorace
    • Replies: @J.Ross
  103. @Old Palo Altan

    Tracking confirmed cases, I see now the US is in a linear growth phase. This is good.

    In three weeks we will see if transition to exponential occurs or not.

    For the young with good immune systems, not a big deal. For the older cohort I wonder. Will the biphasic damage scenario play out. Inquiring minds want to know. For us oldsters with more than one comorbidity, self imposed lockdown is the way forward.

    In a period of one or two Friedmans we will know if I was too cautious or not. I think those who aren’t cautious will not be around.

    Whether Big Brother is using this pandemic to further its own objective, I have no doubt – that it is. One consequence I see and hope for is a reduction in that ethnic segment that throws caution to the wind, because in this case the wind fights back. Prefer to live in a society with more people who think about the future and consequences and stuff.

    Another thing I see is the trend towards stay at home work. As I foresee serious consequences from the oil downslope, it’s good we are making this transition now. As an adjunct, fewer low wage jobs for the perpetually underprivileged, and grievous about it too, Means more opportunity for reckless behavior with the attendant consequences.

  104. @Buzz Mohawk

    Yes, this is a math problem. Your wife may be a genius, but you’re a moron.

  105. @Known Fact

    It actually won’t, in this sense: the teachers unions (as opposed to teachers themselves) may not want to return, but if the *public* wants to return, then the unions will fold. If unions are allowed to refuse to come back, it’s because most parents don’t want to, either.

    I’m not anti-union (not pro union, either), but I’ve been appalled at what my local union is doing, and it’s a bastion of responsibility compared to what others are doing. I’m not talking about working hours; teachers are in front of students about 2o-25 hours/week, and not all of that is teaching. But on every other point, I’m so furious I’ve quit the union.

    • Replies: @Known Fact
  106. @Hypnotoad666

    Meanwhile, side effects of Lockdown include poverty, death, drug abuse, unemployment, and depression.

    If some people are so psychologically broken they can’t stay inside for two months without OD-ing on drugs, that’s their problem, not ours.

    • Troll: Buzz Mohawk, Alice
    • Replies: @Hail
  107. danand says:
    @Hail

    “Knut Wittkowski has written many times on the need to re-open schools and keep them open…”

    Hail, not saying I necessarily disagree, but Knut?

    “Knut Wittkowski had predicted there should only be 10,000 total US deaths with NO MITIGATION efforts at all, it will just come and go in 4 weeks and we are done. And yet, we now have 35,000 deaths (US) right now, with lockdowns, social distancing, masks, school closures, and lots of mitigation efforts.”

    (videos of Kunt’s predictions have vaporized)

    Knut has also stated “About 80% of the people need to have had contact with the virus, and the majority of them won’t even have recognized that they were infected.”

    “The Post reported that Wittkowski is a “German national” who “flouts New York’s coronavirus restrictions, walking around his Upper East Side neighborhood maskless and eating in underground restaurants.””

    • Replies: @Hail
    , @Hail
  108. @Hail

    Hail, I still laugh at one of your lines from maybe a month ago, ending a rant with something like “Thou shalt not doubt the Coronocaust!” Your attitude seemed pretty extreme and aggressively out-there at the time even though I had some sneaking sympathy for it.

    It’s interesting now to watch some prominent people begin to find rationales for climbing down from the hysteria of mid-March as it appears the virus has done its worst and is far less lethal than we were told. It was good to have iconoclasts like you on here during all this.

  109. @Buffalo Joe

    (HallParvey’s response is moronic).

    Most of the restrictions are on behalf of the students, not the teachers. I’m serious. There are likewise restrictions in districts in normal times about how much homework teachers can give. We don’t talk to each other.

    Most of the hourly restrictions are because the students were being overwhelmed with work.

    No teacher is paid to do anything over the summer. They do need to be paid extra if you want them to work. This is also why lengthening the school day or school year is a total nonstarter, as is any bullshit about reduced or hybrid classes. State budgets can’t afford normal school costs, much less increased ones.

    That said, all of this is why unions should not have *any* say in whether or not teachers have to get back to work. They are government employees paid by taxpayers, and if it’s time for schools to open then teachers need to get their asses back to work. Why should they have any more say in this than grocery store clerks?

  110. @Buffalo Joe

    “Berkeley is talking about opening up next year with 12 students to a class. That works, but of course you will need more teachers. ”

    No it doesn’t work, and no there won’t be more teachers.

    @Anon[845]: pretty much everything you said was absurd. First, teachers have to deal with all the various illnesses that kids bring into a school anyway. Second, medical personnel has *not* been slammed by this virus. As of mid-April, 27 had died and 9K of millions had been sick. Third, teachers who are over 65 can retire. Teachers younger than that aren’t at serious risk.

  111. Anon7 says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    The phrase that scares me is “the New Normal“. The progressive lefties have been trying to impose one after another of their set of rules on the rest of us and make it the New Normal.

    This is only the first of the lockdowns. Anytime they think they can scare everyone, it’s another lockdown because, New Normal. Anytime people feel short of money, the government needs to borrow a $trillion because, New Normal.

  112. Hail says: • Website
    @danand

    Wittkowski was active in the Youtube comment sections, writing replies to people’s criticisms and questions.

    Now that Youtube has deleted both the Wittkowski interviews, all that material is gone, but I preserved most of his replies and re-hosted them.

    Naturally a lot of people said he was wrong in his “10,000 deaths” prediction, which was actually a prediction of “usual flu range.”

    Here are some of his replies to that:

    ______________________

    A critic says:

    Wittkowski […] estimated 10k deaths in US but now as of 20th April, 18k just in NYC and 41k in US? What is the problem with the fatality rate of this yet another flu-like respiratory disease?

    Knut Wittkowski (April 20) responds:

    It’s a moving target, because the US have changed the definition of CORVID death from death OF the virus, to death WITH the virus (car accident while infected), to death DURING the spread of the virus (death in somebody who looks as if he might have been had a contact with the virus).

    The message, however, is still the same: The number of “related” deaths is still within the range of what’s normal for a “flu” and, thus, doesn’t require any [more] precautions […] than what’s normal for a “flu”.

    Someone else says the “normal flu range” deaths estimate was wrong:

    In Knuts first video interview he said if the USA did absolutely nothing different to usual, COVID 19 would blow through in about 4 weeks and kill about 10 000 people, within the “range of normal” for the other influenza strains annual lethality and year to year variance. USA is above 70 000 deaths and counting, and that is even WITH all the extra effort, isolating and otherwise.

    Knut Wittkowski responds (May 9, second interview):

    All models are wrong, but some are useful. Both 10,000 and 100,000 are close to the range of a normal flu epidemic. Hence, you don’t need to shut down the schools and the economy. The country was shut down because of a 2,200,000 estimate that was in an entirely different ball park.

    Someone else, writing May 10 (second interview) says Wittkowski’s April 1 “predictions” do not “hold up”:

    Norm Nes

    The stats now do not hold up to his predictions..

    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    They do. The number of hospitalizations in NYC is down from >1500/d to <200/d: nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page .

    “Flattening the curve” prolonged the epidemic to 2 months, but now it’s (essentially) over. The number of new infections (hospitalization – 14 days) peaked around Mar 15 and since Apr 15 there are (almost) no more infections in NYC. Just look at the data.

    • Thanks: Mr McKenna
    • Replies: @HA
  113. Hail says: • Website
    @danand

    The Post reported that Wittkowski is a “German national” who “flouts New York’s coronavirus restrictions, walking around his Upper East Side neighborhood maskless and eating in underground restaurants.”

    Wittkowski was also filmed drinking a beer in a restaurant in the second interview, released April 27, and insisted the footage stay in the final cut.

    He was asked about this in the comments at Youtube, and wrote (April 30):

    Why do you think the 2nd prohibition would be different from the 1st?

  114. Reopen which schools? A great many, maybe a majority of the K-12 public schools in this nation are nothing but a heartbreaking waste of our children’s lives and society’s resources. Nothing at all to do with Coronavirus® transmission, the schools suck. There is no “reforming” them, as thae do exactly what the people and the education administration and labor force want: Transfer money in employment, keep the anklebiters off the street, get the ankle biters OUT of the house (or “crib”), and provide a meal or two or three. Education? The three R’s?? Not even pretending to care abut that.

    So take this opportunity to simply CLOSE most of the public schools in America, probably including the one your kids go to. Since our Treasury is into writing checks with free money, send a check for 8 grand to every student for use at any school of their choice. Any school. Including a madrass, a Roman Catholic or Jewish school, a sports academy, theater, anything. No school at all would be an improvement over every urban and many rural district, so (in the words of DJ Trump) “What the Hell do you have to lose?”

  115. Hail says: • Website
    @Old Palo Altan

    They are with the dark side on this, and by now they must now it.

    And yet they continue.

    I don’t know how to explain it.

    Please end this endless nonsensical discussion now, and listen to this real expert.

    Experts? This is Corona-land!

    Media-filtered reality is now media-dictated reality.
    Corona is King; the Holy Media is its messenger.
    Corona-disrespecting experts should shut up, get in the unemployment line, and if they’re nice, the Holy Media will toss manna at them.
    Experts are unpatriotic.
    If you don’t love it, leave it.
    Or, in this case, don’t leave it. Stay home a few more months until you, too, love Corona and find some respect for our new god.

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
  116. @Buzz Mohawk

    Just to clarify this part of my comment:

    As with charity, I feel no pressing need to push myself to do or give what others can and should do and give in spades — sheer, multiple magnitudes — beyond anything I can do.

    I am talking about doing some kind of cost-benefit analysis of this. (I actually do give money to charitable causes, but my point is that billionaires and others can and do give so much more that my contributions mean peanuts.)

    I have thought about trying to present some kind of analysis, but my effort would be pathetic. There are many others who are well-equipped to do this. It is part of their job, for many of them, so why don’t they do it?

    Why doesn’t Steve Sailer do it, since his full-time job is writing about this now, and he is an experienced user of statistics. Why doesn’t he do it?

    That was the gist of what I said there. Why are we not seeing that kind of analysis? All I can do is cite tens of millions of unemployed, $trillions in new government expenditures, and anecdotes about small businesses shutting down where I live. The cost is real, but won’t somebody better equipped than I try to estimate it and compare it to the benefits of fighting this coronavirus?

    Intuitively I know, but it would be interesting to see somebody try to quantify this. Maybe nobody has because they are no better at it than I am. That says a lot.

  117. Polynikes says:
    @Jack D

    Just saw that NJ is now changing the way it reports covid deaths. This is not great news for the doomers, who have clung to the deaths “with” covid being counted as actual covid caused deaths.

    Typical government. Typical people, really. When the states (i.e. the Gov.’s) were getting credit for gallantly standing up and doing something during the great covid crisis, they were content to shove as many sketchy deaths into the covid category as possible–and hospitals desperate to admit patients and generate revenue were happy to help. After all, the more deaths in your state, the more chance CNN lavishes praise on you for a being brave pandemic warrior, especially if you’re a Dem and can claim Drumpf cast a plague on your house…err, state!

    Now that people are realizing that some of the policy decisions (e.g. excess ventilator use, sending old folks back into nursing homes with a highly contagious disease, etc…) have had negative consequences and resulted in deaths, there is going to be a rush to disavow some of these deaths.

    Funny how incentives work.

    Excess mortality seems like a decent enough ballpark judge, and it is running about 80k and just about all tapped out. All CDC labeled deaths are about 90k, but just 60k if you only take the original more strict coding that includes (but not requires) testing. All states show a decline in percentage of test positives regardless of policy. 70k to 100k deaths would be a good final, ballpark guess. Somewhere between a pretty bad flu year and once a generation flu year.

    And I agree with you–there’s virtually no way to back out the deaths caused by the lock-down. The numbers won’t be precise enough, and that is partly because they were juked nearly from the beginning and the politicization of them will not end.

  118. What about colleges?

    I have kids away at college. They were sent home. One was given 72 hours to leave the dorm and get home. That kid went to college about 1000 miles away, and it was rough. One kid was given a few hours(!) to clear out and go home. That kid went to college a few miles away, so it was easy.

    Here is the problem.

    One of my kids was kicked out of the dorms AFTER spring break. Some students, including members of a Greco-American social organization to which my child belongs, got COVID-19 during spring break and helped spread it to other members of their Greco-American organization. In fact, the night before my kid left, someone who later tested positive came over to visit.

    Then, parents from hundreds of miles away had to go into a city with a COVID-19 outbreak to pick up their kids. Others, like my kid, flew home. My child spent time at two of the busiest airports in the US on the way home.

    Wouldn’t it make a h3ll of a lot more sense to just keep the kids at the college, and isolate anyone who tests positive, do contact tracing and testing? Instead of sending uninfected parents to an infected city, and then sending the diseased kids all over the country?

    Just wondering.

    • Agree: Lot
    • Replies: @jsm
    , @Lugash
  119. Mike Tre says:

    “Normally, if you have an epidemic, you shut the schools. ”

    Citation needed.

  120. @Hail

    Stay home a few more months until you, too, love Corona and find some respect for our new god.

    Corona-chan says hello!

    Coronachan from coronachan

  121. Lot says:
    @Old Palo Altan

    “ Sailer and Unz hunkering down with an obviously and utterly failed and disastrous and never justified or sensible “policy””

    Unz is an admirer of the CCP who thinks Covid is a US or Israeli bioweapon attack on China.

    I haven’t seen Steve defending current lockdowns, and he’s repeatedly noted the absurdity of, eg, the beach and golf corse closures. At most he thinks the initial March orders were prudent based on the information we had at the time. I agree.

    The extremism of the shutdowners shouldn’t cause us to go too far in the opposite direction.

    Steve has also been a steadfast opponent of mass migration, which has made America’s response more disorganized, as well as made the spread worse because of higher population density.

    • Agree: Mr McKenna
  122. Anonymous[337] • Disclaimer says:

    School shutdowns ? I thought you were banned from schools ?

  123. @varsicule

    We know every Covid death within seconds of flatline, but it’s going to take months to figure out how many suicides have occurred. I’m guessing Google won’t have a link to a beautiful analytics dashboard on their homepage.

    Almost as if one of these is contagious and as a result society is putting a lot of effort into tracking and gathering information about it and the other isn’t.

    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666
  124. @Polynikes

    After all, the more deaths in your state, the more chance CNN lavishes praise on you for a being brave pandemic warrior, especially if you’re a Dem and can claim Drumpf cast a plague on your house…err, state!

    Now that people are realizing that some of the policy decisions (e.g. excess ventilator use, sending old folks back into nursing homes with a highly contagious disease, etc…) have had negative consequences and resulted in deaths, there is going to be a rush to disavow some of these deaths.

    Funny how incentives work.

    Whatever happens, you can always make up a story about how it’s incentivized by this or that. You haven’t explained why the incentive to blame Trump for the deaths went away. It seems to me like they’re still blaming him.

  125. utu says:
    @Hypnotoad666

    “Here’s a thought experiment” – Thought and experiment? You should not be allowed either. You haven’t been FDA approved for thinking and experimenting.

  126. Farenheit says:
    @Lars Porsena

    Thanks! Looking at the graph, looks like there’s a good chance this whole thing will be statistical noise…(except in the Federal deficit, that will stand out like a sore thumb)

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna
  127. Western says:
    @Anon

    According to David Stockman in an Ebook by Tom Woods:

    There are 5 deaths of kids 15 and below as of 4-28. There are 44000 deaths each year in that category.

    And how many of those 5 were healthy?

    And for some perspective 17 kids 16 and under were killed by dogs in 2019. 3 under 16 have already been killed this year.

    As Stockman said: “so coronavirus accounts for just 0.011% of the total, and in no sane world would it
    be a reason for shutting down the schools.”

    Do we worry about it killing grocery and warehouse workers that provide our food and essentials?

    Let the teachers with diabetes quit if they are scared. Are we supposed to shut down everything for a few people?

    34 million people have diabetes in the US and few have died with this virus. I’ll bet many with diabetes have been infected and nothing happened to them.

    We are allowing the bubble boy to walk free while the rest of society is put in the bubble.

  128. The rise of the right wing “Corona is a Hoax!” movement in the US is certainly interesting. So Salvini, Orban, Kaczynski, Kurz and Putin turn out to have all been left wingers all along? All of a sudden left-wing Swedes who didn’t want women to have to stay home and take care of their own children are heroes to the American right for keeping public schools open?

    Why did the European populist right wing move quickly to stop the virus and support a lockdown while New World populists like Bolsonaro and Trump dithered around?

    Probably many reasons, but in Europe the connection between the lockdown and stopping immigration was much clearer. That certainly helped gain traction for the lockdown among a lot of European conservatives. It was also clear that in Italy the left had screwed up, whereas Salvini had been arguing very early for a lockdown and a travel ban.

    In short the “Corona is a hoax” movement is yet another desperate attempt to save Trump from his own incompetence, in complete disregard of conservative principles.

    • Agree: Alexander Turok
    • Replies: @utu
    , @Thoughts
    , @Mr. Anon
  129. @Jack D

    The same is true of every major war, every genocide, every famine, but I doubt that would stop you from citing numbers.

    https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/08/14/beware-isolated-demands-for-rigor/

  130. Whiskey says: • Website
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    No there will most definitely be a lockdown starting in September at the latest.

    You forget two things. Our rulers are stupid beyond belief.

    And they hate Trump and the deplorables most of all.

    Lockdown means mail in voting. And a massive depression.

    Both of which equals President Biden. Guaranteed. As predictable as the calendar. None of our rulers works or has worked a day in their lives. They don’t care. Think Whitmer cares? Hell she will suspend all rights for decades and rule by permanent emergency decree. Same with Cuomo and Newsome.

    Done deal. Already planned. A few sneezes and a three month lockdown will finish Trump and deplorables for good. That’s all that matters.

    • Replies: @MKP
    , @MBlanc46
    , @anon
  131. jsm says:
    @Paleo Liberal

    Wouldn’t it make a h3ll of a lot more sense to just keep the kids at the college, and isolate anyone who tests positive, do contact tracing and testing? Instead of sending uninfected parents to an infected city, and then sending the diseased kids all over the country?

    But, see, no.

    Because, omg, that would be, like, implying there are different issues in different places needing different responses. You can’t do that. That would be like, some kind of …individualism.. or something like that. Omg. That would not be showing solidarity!! OMG, no. We have to all do the same thing. Otherwise, that would not be in the spirit of our collective Corona Religion. That would not be showing, “We are all in this together.” That’s not who we are! What ARE you? Some kind of heretic?!!

  132. utu says:
    @Peter Akuleyev

    “Why did the European populist right wing move quickly to stop the virus and support a lockdown while New World populists like Bolsonaro and Trump dithered around?”

    European populist right is nationalistic so they understand cooperation. American populist right is libertarian so they are not really populist. Libertarians are always anti-national, anti-communitarian, anti-cooperation. Libertarians worship liberty and the Chamber of Commerce is their church. Libertarians like most ideologues are very easy subjects of the dis-information campaigns to make them act against their own interest. They are caught in the Prisoner Dilemma game that they are bound to lose every time and they are unable to exit the game:

    The Prisoner’s Dilemma, as played by two very dumb libertarians who keep ending up on defect-defect. There’s a much better outcome available if they could figure out the coordination, but coordination is hard. From a god’s-eye-view, we can agree that cooperate-cooperate is a better outcome than defect-defect, but neither prisoner within the system can make it happen. – Scott Alexander

    Is the “Corona is a hoax” movement being primed by the hostile foreign centers of disinformation. Would China and Russia be interested in seeing more chaos and confusion and lack of coherent and consistent policies in the US? I keep checking Russia Today’s English edition and I see there many articles that are seeding doubt about covid and about countermeasures. I am pretty sure that Putin’s media do not propagandize his own population the same way.

    • Agree: bomag, AP
    • Replies: @Anonymous
  133. Ed says:

    I don’t think any of this was necessary especially the school shutdowns. Shutting down colleges might have even made things worse. Instead of having a group of mostly young people among themselves the schools were shutdown in a snap and they were free to spread it in confined spaces at home.

    What should have occurred was intense focus on nursing homes and a robust public health campaign on hand washing.

  134. @education realist

    I bow to your direct experience here (my wife is a teacher but non-union and is not being paid now). But in a three-way showdown over re-opening I think the unions will hold the ace card vs. public officials and the parents plus other tax-paying residents.

    The parents will be like baseball fans helplessly awaiting some action while the players and owners drag out their Covid-era squabble. And no one will dare cut off the teachers’ pay.

    • Replies: @education realist
  135. res says:
    @Lars Porsena

    The original source of that plot has a rather different take on it.
    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2020/04/correcting-recent-u-s-weekly-death-statistics-for-incomplete-reporting/
    He presents an alternate interpretation.

    Looking at https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html
    (there are your current weekly death stats, Farenheit, just note the late reporting issue)
    we see week 10 deaths reported as 57,184. This is pretty close to the adjusted line above, and data should still be coming in.

    It is hard to know how exactly to adjust for late reporting (anyone up for downloading the data and trying to reproduce Roy Spencer’s approach?), but week 15 (ending April 11th) is currently showing 71,879 deaths (over the top grid line in your graph) with pneumonia and flu deaths as a percentage of total deaths also spiked far above normal. The numbers decline from there, but I think that is likely due to late reporting.

    • Replies: @Lars Porsena
  136. res says:
    @Polynikes

    But there can be little doubt this ties to age.

    Agreed.

    Moreso than the regular flu which kills way more kids than this particular covid.

    Disagree. I see a number of people saying this, but have yet to see any convincing evidence. Do you have any? I have discussed this in other comments, but since you are the one making the assertion here I think the burden of proof is on you.

    • Replies: @A123
    , @Polynikes
    , @Alice
  137. Coemgen says:
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    Normally, if you have an epidemic, you shut the schools.

    “Normal” went “out the window” circa the late 1960s. If we lived in “normal times,” U.S. schools would have been shuttered and international travel to the U.S. would have been stopped in January 2020.

    In the U.S. we would be thinking of sars-cov-2 as we used to think of tuberculosis: it doesn’t occur here.

  138. Anon[144] • Disclaimer says:
    @Mr. Anon

    On the contrary. When you’re at work, you’re sitting at a desk 8 hours a day. At home, you’re free to get up and move around all you want, go outdoors and exercise at whim, do yardwork or work around the house. You’re also more likely to eat home cooking than fast food you grabbed at noon near your worksite. That, more than anything else, is why the heart attack/stroke rate has dropped.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
  139. Thoughts says:
    @Peter Akuleyev

    You’re just playing with Zeros and Ones

    Corona IS a Hoax.

    It’s a really contagious coronavirus but it’s not more than that and maybe not even as bad as the Hong Kong Flu and certainly not as dangerous to the people who catch it as H1N1 (it’s just more contagious)

    However, there are ways to stop it….and those ways are pretty easy.

    Hydroxy, Zinc etc etc etc etc Masks on planes etc etc etc etc etc Isolate nursing homes etc etc etc

    You could sit down in an afternoon and draw up a nice plan to protect people while reopening all aspects of the economy.

    The reason why people cry ‘Coronahoax’ is it’s obvious that the Reaction to the Coronavirus is no longer about Protecting People…

    But hurting them.

    And we all know it, and if you try to deny that, well you are just a liar

  140. Thoughts says:

    I wonder if a shot of Quinine Tea daily is enough to protect the elderly?

    That’s *sorta* what they did a few hundred years ago in Latin America and it worked very well against malaria given it was a couple hundred years ago.

  141. Anon[144] • Disclaimer says:
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    If this had happened during my high school or junior high years, I would have been thrilled to death. 2 extra months of summer vacation would have been far more valuable to me at that age than learning anything I did in class.

    • Replies: @Alice
  142. @Buzz Mohawk

    Balance the costs of fighting this coronavirus against the benefits. That’s all. Just figure that out.

    On one thread awhile ago (it was buried pretty deep), I only half-jokingly proposed that Trump should fire Fauci and hire Bill James as the Virus Czar.

    He could treat each policy as if it were a minor league player and figure out how much it was worth, based on the dollar value of each Year of Life Lost (YLL) that it was likely to save.

    But political decisions are made stupidly, almost by definition. The “costs” are paid by someone else and the “benefits” consist of generating appearances that will avoid blame and help you get reelected.

    • Replies: @Alexander Turok
  143. J.Ross says:
    @Alexander Turok

    >the lockdown is the same thing as the virus
    Nope.
    >the lockdowns make it harder for broadcast and online media to —
    Nope.
    >everyone else is a drooling idiot and the sun shines out of Turok’s arschloch
    Okay.

  144. Anonymous[345] • Disclaimer says:
    @moshe

    What the lockdown demonstrates is that we in the west can survive on A LOT less work.

    All we need is:

    1. NO NEW IMMIGRATION

    How does it follow that we need no new immigration?

    • Replies: @moshe
  145. This paper was covered in the press earlier this month. It evaluates the effectiveness of different lockdown measures by looking at the packages of measures adopted in different European countries and their outcomes, using Bayesian techniques. I am not qualified to assess the methodology but the results, if they are valid, are very interesting.

    The most effective measures were closing schools, banning mass gatherings, and closing businesses such as bars and restaurants where people gather. Less effective (or even counterproductive) measures included wearing masks, closing “non-essential” businesses, and forcing people to stay at home.

    The conclusions seem to have been ignored, possibly because the statistical techniques are opaque to the non-specialist. However, there must be many professional statisticians and actuaries who could assess whether the results are sufficiently robust to guide policy.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.20088260v1.full.pdf

    https://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2020-05-11/uea-research-finds-closing-schools-most-effective-lockdown-measure/

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8294507/New-study-reveals-blueprint-getting-Covid-19-lockdown.html

    • Replies: @res
  146. B36 says:

    So many weird things about this virus. Like…it’s been berry berry good for myocardial infarctions…

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2015630?query=RP

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
  147. @Hypnotoad666

    I only half-jokingly proposed that Trump should fire Fauci and hire Bill James as the Virus Czar

    The morons here would whine about “how dare you base policy on mere mathematical models!”

  148. Alice says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    1000 times yes.

    I tried to do a lit search on academic outcomes of children not in school vs in school. Shocker–there aren’t ANY studies because NO ONE EVER thought it was necessary to test the hypothesis that kids won’t learn to read or do arithmetic if not schooled for long periods of time!

    the best we can do is look at OECD data, which shows that war torn and/or 3rd world countries have kids with the least amount of schooling, and the countries have worse economic development.

    EVEN IF IT WERE TRUE that kids give it to adults, you WOULD STILL freaking need to school our children! WHAT IS THE ALTERNATIVE???

    So man up. tell the folks over 60+ crowd who is afraid to take early retirement from classrooms and get on with it already.

  149. @Alexander Turok

    Almost as if one of these is contagious and as a result society is putting a lot of effort into tracking and gathering information about it and the other isn’t.

    No. You’re exactly wrong. The reason they so quickly “know” that there are 80,000 coronavirus deaths is precisely because they put zero effort into ascertaining the true of cause. They just presume its coronavirus and collect their medicare bounty for listing Covid-19 on the death certificate.

    On the other hand, per the NYT, if a guy puts a shotgun in his mouth it will supposedly take months to investigate whether the coroner made the right call in putting “suicide” on the death certificate.

    You should write for the New York Times, you definitely seem to share their agenda and blind faith in official pronouncements.

    • Agree: Manfred Arcane, Hail
    • Replies: @Alexander Turok
  150. MKP says:
    @Whiskey

    “Lockdown means mail in voting. And a massive depression. Both of which equals President Biden. Guaranteed.”

    Well, five weeks ago you were “guarantee”-ing that Hillary or Kamala would be the next President. Can we surmise that you’ve backed off that?

  151. A123 says:
    @res

    But there can be little doubt this ties to age.

    Given that various reporting regimes it is unlikely that sufficient data quality exists to show wether WUHAN-19 is primarily driven by:

    — Age (which often correlates with comorbidities)
    — Comorbidities (Which often correlate with age)

    On a purely anecdotal basis, I have yet to hear of significant numbers of otherwise 100% elderly deaths.

    Also, note that the prevalence is in nursing homes where comorbidities are common. The lack of outbreaks in more active elderly accommodations & lifestyles makes me suspicious that comorbidities are more important than simple age.

    Either way the answer is mostly of academic interest.
    _____

    We all concur that there is strong evidence that young & healthy individuals with no pre-existing conditions are at very low risk.

    Thus schools both primary &secondary should open as soon as practical.

    PEACE 😷

  152. Lugash says:
    @Paleo Liberal

    I think closing the colleges was the right move. It would have spread through the dorms, dining halls and classrooms until it was time to go home for the summer. A lot of kids would have been down with flu like symptoms or being pulled out of school by worried parents, throwing off end of the year testing.

    Big state schools are crammed like economy class seats on a plane and are nearly always full. You’re going to get a lot of transmission in these places.

    • Replies: @Alice
    , @Paleo Liberal
  153. Polynikes says:
    @res

    Burden of proof is on no one. The stats are the stats. If you want to learn, look it up. But I’ll help. Here’s the first thing that came to when I googled it: https://www.aappublications.org/news/2020/03/13/flu031320

    144 flu deaths through the first three months. Compare that to zero for covid deaths.

    Have you seriously not heard of children dying of the flu before?

    • Replies: @res
  154. Anonymous[345] • Disclaimer says:
    @utu

    They are caught in the Prisoner Dilemma game that they are bound to lose every time and they are unable to exit the game:

    Need specifics here about what the “game” is and how it maps onto the Prisoner’s Dilemma.

  155. Alice says:
    @Lugash

    Why do you think this? Based in what DATA? College kids get the flu, and so what? the number of people 24 or under in the US who died of Wuhan coronavirus is 60. less than 1 in a million!

    They closed the schools, increasing panic. if they’d been open, they’d have had fewer panicked parents. end of year testing has already been thrown off–every darn school went to pass fail! schools offered no on campus labs, studios, hands in anything. Libraries closed! a few kids getting incompletes vs Every Single College closing? Think!

    • Agree: Buzz Mohawk
  156. Anonymous[345] • Disclaimer says:

    O/T

    New video shows Ahmaud Arbery acting aggressively toward police in 2017 encounter.

  157. moshe says:
    @Anonymous

    You cut the quote early. The main reason for part 1 is to allow the possibility of part 2.

  158. res says:
    @James N. Kennett

    Thanks! Here is a link to the paper page. The Supplementary Material has a list of countries and measures taken.
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.20088260v1

    It is interesting that another study in the US found almost the opposite. See this comment:
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/a-big-question/#comment-3905646

  159. @Lugash

    The local state school had an interesting rule for a while:

    If you leave for Spring Break you can’t come back to the dorms. You can’t even leave the county.

    My kid was an RA at a dorm, but the college is in the same city. So my kid could come and go. When it was time to babysit, off to the dorm.

    The dorms were at 20% capacity so they decided to move anyone who couldn’t leave (foreign students mostly) into a few dorms and kick everybody else out. My kid not being foreign was kicked out and no more RA job.

    • Replies: @Inquiring Mind
  160. I think that the coronavirus panic is a hoax.

    I live in a densely populated city (330,000) in Orange County (3.2 million) and we have been kept in a lockdown for 63 days and a total of 88 deaths…out of 3.2 million people!

    So 88 deaths over the course of 63 days was worth destroying everything we hold dear.

    This is political. It’s about keeping people in fear to control them. It’s a hoax of the wildest proportions. Which is why I still go to work everyday since day one. Governor Yoga Pants isn’t going to control me or destroy my livelihood!

    Going to Laguna Beach is illegal, even though it is a right under the state constitution. It’s only a matter of time until I exercise that right and get myself arrested.

    • Agree: Thoughts
    • Replies: @Alexander Turok
  161. Alice says:
    @Anon

    because..you would have done what?

    Gone camping? Closed. Hiking? Closed. Swimming? Closed. The library? Closed. The museum? Closed. Church? Closed. Learned a trade? Closed. Gotten a driver’s license? Closed. Built a ham radio from a kit? Radio kit stores –Even On the Web– Closed.

    Hung out with your friends? CLOSED.

  162. MBlanc46 says:
    @Whiskey

    Postal voting. Coming to an election near you. Soon. Very soon.

  163. res says:
    @Polynikes

    Burden of proof is on no one.

    Disagree strongly. One should be prepared to back up what one says.

    The stats are the stats. If you want to learn, look it up.

    Did you miss the “I have discussed this in other comments” part of my comment? I was hoping you could point me to YOUR stats.

    https://www.aappublications.org/news/2020/03/13/flu031320

    144 flu deaths through the first three months. Compare that to zero for covid deaths.

    Thanks for providing backup. So we see this is a special problem this year. Given this report was from 3/13/20 one has to wonder if there are any COVID-19 deaths in there.

    Deaths among children are higher than during the same period in every other season since reporting started in 2004-’05 with the exception of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. About two-thirds of the deaths were due to influenza B viruses, which are known to cause severe illness in children.

    Hospitalization rates for children also are unusually high. Children ages 4 and under have been hospitalized at a rate of 88.9 per 100,000 children, the highest on record for this point in the season. Rates for children ages 5-17 are 22.6 per 100,000 children, the highest in recent seasons except the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.

    As far as “Compare that to zero for covid deaths”, there are three mentioned in this paper:
    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2766037
    It does seem that the children affected (enough to go to the ICU) tend to have comorbidities.

    This page also mentions three deaths out of 2,572 cases which would be a CFR of 0.1%.
    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6914e4.htm

    This page has weekly deaths from flu/pneumonia/all and supports limiting to under 18:
    https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

    Back to you.

    Have you seriously not heard of children dying of the flu before?

    The question is the relative frequency of children dying from the flu vs. dying from COVID-19.

    All in all I’d say there is support for your claim in the data above. But I think it is too early to have any real confidence. The most compelling evidence I see is comparing the percent pneumonia/influenza deaths for the different age groups in recent weeks at the final link above. There are extreme spikes for both 18-64 and 65+ age groups while the <18 group is actually below trend.

    So provisionally I would say you are right. Thanks for bringing that link to my attention and convincing me to look harder for data.

    • Replies: @Alice
    , @Polynikes
  164. anon[379] • Disclaimer says:
    @Whiskey

    No there will most definitely be a lockdown starting in September at the latest.

    Of all the paid shills who clutter comments up, you’re one of the funniest.

    Is Kamala VP nominee yet?

    LOL @ weak, watery Whiskey!

  165. @Hypnotoad666

    They just presume its coronavirus and collect their medicare bounty for listing Covid-19 on the death certificate.

    Okay, here we have an actual falsifiable claim. Do the coroners receive a bounty from medicare for every COVID-19 death they report? Evidence, please. Put up or shut up.

    On the other hand, per the NYT, if a guy puts a shotgun in his mouth it will supposedly take months to investigate whether the coroner made the right call in putting “suicide” on the death certificate.

    For one, yes it’s sometimes disputed. People still argue about whether or not Alan Turing committed suicide. You should write for InfoWars. Because you don’t know anything about how the world works. You think that the second the coroner’s pen leaves the paper that records the cause of death, that data should just magically be available in the NYTimes data visualization machine, no human effort required. You don’t what SQL is, you know nothing about how to build a database, no clue how any of it works. What sets you apart, and makes you a good fit for a position at InfoWars, is not your ignorance per se. Most Americans don’t know anything about databases. So when people who do know something about the subject speak, they shut up and listen or pretend to listen. You, in contrast, just bloviate with your stupid questions that you think are “deep” but in reality are laughably shallow to anyone who actually knows anything about the subject you’re bloviating about.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  166. @petit bourgeois

    So 88 deaths over the course of 63 days was worth destroying everything we hold dear.

    You are really stupid, you know that?

    • Replies: @petit bourgeois
  167. This is off topic, sort of like talking about which 1930s baseball players would have been in the hall of fame if not for injuries, but it really is interesting – read on.

    In my life, there has never been a more visibly spectacular failure of so-called eggheads than there has been in the last few months.

    All those preening “statisticians” with their “I too can make epidemiology prediction” arguments and their wicked clever quotes from Bayes or Popper or Taleb screwed up and did not predict anything right.

    6 months ago, who would have said that we had a good chance at a flu season appx. 5 times worse than normal AND appx. 30 million hard working people being (at best) temporarily pauperized?

    And it was not all that hard to figure out the second half if you had a good insight into the first half, but who did it?

    Outside of people living in Hong Kong or Vietnam or Thailand.

    And I got mercilessly mocked for asking Steve to show a little respect to Thailand, a month or two before the coronavirus spill in Wuhan led to the disaster in Italy and the disaster in NYC and the disaster elsewhere.

    And everyone was all like, what do we need to be even a little respectful to Thailand for?

    Well, there are smart people in places like Thailand. And Hong Kong. And Singapore, among a very few other places.

    Some of them have better advice than you will ever get in the expensive pages of Barronz weekly birdcage filler.

    Be politer to intelligent people and don’t suck up so much to famous eggheads, that is my advice to many people.

    • Replies: @Stephen Dodge
    , @anon
  168. @Paleo Liberal

    So are you telling me, that Great Lakes University-Ulyanov, crammed the remaining dorm residents into a few dorms? Kind of like the NYC MTA seeing a virus-driven dropoff in ridership, cramming the remaining passengers and resident homeless persons into many fewer trains?

    Cool!

  169. Mr. Anon says:
    @Peter Frost

    Not if it is wrongly attributed to COVID-19. Your comment is nonsensical.

    • Replies: @Peter Frost
  170. Mr. Anon says:
    @Anon

    When you’re at work, you’re sitting at a desk 8 hours a day.

    Not everybody works at your desk job.

    At home, you’re free to get up and move around all you want, go outdoors and exercise at whim, do yardwork or work around the house.

    But a lot of people don’t. Not before the pandemic. Probably not now.

    You’re also more likely to eat home cooking than fast food you grabbed at noon near your worksite.

    Nonsense. People are probably eating as much junkfood as ever. It’s called take-out.

  171. @Stephen Dodge

    To be clear, some of the famous eggheads should get credit for calling for a stop to international air travel at the right time.
    But, unless I missed something, the famous eggheads I am talking about all had secure jobs and did not predict the economic devastation, and the possibility of tens of millions of deaths from starvation and preventable disease when the USA and similar countries take care of themselves and let the rest of the world that depended on them in many ways to fend for itself.

    I really hope it does not turn out that way —- there are a lot of energetic people who are trying to make sure it does not turn out that way —- but there were many many dangerous imbeciles on the egghead-cheered lockdown side, and it is sad for us now, looking back even just a few months, to see how much more ignorant they were than they thought they were.

    Like conceited ugly people wearing way too much makeup, if you want a visual.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  172. Mr. Anon says:
    @Peter Akuleyev

    The rise of the right wing “Corona is a Hoax!” movement in the US is certainly interesting. So Salvini, Orban, Kaczynski, Kurz and Putin turn out to have all been left wingers all along? All of a sudden left-wing Swedes who didn’t want women to have to stay home and take care of their own children are heroes to the American right for keeping public schools open?

    Why did the European populist right wing move quickly to stop the virus and support a lockdown while New World populists like Bolsonaro and Trump dithered around?

    The AfD seems to be against the lockdown. Salvini was against it before he was before it. And Putin is hardly a “populist”.

  173. Alice says:
    @res

    78 deaths in the US in the 24 and under age brackets per CDC thru 5/9/2020. out of 104M people in the age range.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex

    • Replies: @res
  174. @Clyde

    I….hope not. I don’t think so. Most of the ones I know want to get back to work. I do believe, as I said earlier, that the unions (or teachers) will not make this demand if the public wants to get back to work.

    If there is a huge outcry for restarting the economy, and the only holdup is teachers unions, it’ll get fixed.

    My much bigger fear is that enough of the *public* won’t want to work that they’ll sympathize with any teacher refusal to go to work.

    I hate to think I’m being naive, but I think a minority would refuse. I certainly think the unions are posturing for it, and it infuriates me.

    • Replies: @Stephen Dodge
  175. @Known Fact

    No. Whatever will happen, it won’t be that. If you want to worry, worry that pols and public would rather print money than stop this fucking shutdown.

  176. @education realist

    some of us are tired of paying for child care for other people.

    i personally don’t mind much, but in most places in the USA K-12 public education is a lot closer to welfare for parents who don’t want to pay for child care than it is to real education

    • Replies: @education realist
  177. ‘… Nobody has much of a clue, although lots of folks have a strong opinion about what the answer ought to be due to their opinion of the policy implications of whatever the answer is. But I’d like to know the answer.’

    Don’t you think you’re picking through the physical trivia of what is in essence a psychological phenomenon?

    If your crazy older sister had acquired a total of twenty three cats, would you see whether or not they had all been properly vaccinated as the the central issue?

  178. Lagertha says:

    it will always be Russian Roulette when it comes to pandemics – sorry. FYI my father was stricken with polio…and I had West Nile Virus 20 years later, after my father died, of Post-Polio Syndrome..so, I do not believe: experts of anything! Viruses are ruthless. I don’t trust any politically inclined doctors.

    However, why does China, and, other labs in the USA & EU study this shit!!!!!!!!! Why do they develop this shit!!!!!!!!

    • Replies: @Lagertha
  179. @Farenheit

    Thanks! Looking at the graph, looks like there’s a good chance this whole thing will be statistical noise…(except in the Federal deficit, that will stand out like a sore thumb)

    And guess who’s gonna be blamed for that, forever after?

  180. Lagertha says:
    @Lagertha

    and… Jonas (after Jonas Salk) became the most popular baby name in the late 50’s-early 60’s in Finland. Like I said, my father had polio, and, he was a green-card holding, biggest fan of Republicans, however, JFK stole his heart – he knew there was no one like him – JFK was a comet, he told me, when I was still very young when JFK was murdered. It was the first time I learned what murdered meant.

  181. Lot says:
    @moshe

    “ B. UBI of $1,500/mo”

    Moshe, pick a name from the phone book and start writing checks or Venmos. Be the change you want to see.

    • Agree: Coemgen
  182. Gapeseed says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    The big issue is that nobody (and certainly no politician) wants to sign off on any calculation assigning a monetary value to a human life. People will talk about the economy and freedom and other such abstractions, but the needed green lampshade analysis on cost (human life) vs. benefit (a recovered economy) cowers even the most bloodless accountant.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  183. moshe says:
    @Anonymous

    My default assumption about any “innocent black man killed by racist whites” case is probably the same as most people (over 25) but this video demonstrates the opposite of what you think it does. It demonstrates a police officer attempting to taze a man they had no business tazing.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  184. @Gapeseed

    The federal government actually does regularly assign dollar values to lives and fractions of lives.

  185. Hhsiii says:

    Well I had it. Took antibody test this weekend. Positive. No symptoms.

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna
  186. @Anonymous

    LOL. Pants up, don’t loot.


    I ain’t got sh** on me, what the f*** you you f**ki’n with me fo’?

  187. @Anonymous

    Red pilled, we don’t like the stock market so much and tend to be contrarians. We don’t represent or sell other people’s products. We’ll tell you to buy more gold and other hard assets and fewer stocks, and to index when you do buy stocks. The CFP is very good if you are interested. (CFA is more impressive if you are a better quant person and want a higher-level job.) My training included financial planning and came from banks, plus certification programs like the Series 7, which they paid for while I was selling their stuff.

  188. anon[232] • Disclaimer says:
    @Stephen Dodge

    what do we need to be even a little respectful to Thailand for?

    We don’t. The King of Thighland is a stupid tattooed whoremonger. Have you seen pictures of him?

  189. @Hhsiii

    Congrats–by my reckoning that puts you in the luckiest segment.

    No test here; I don’t even know how to get one.

    • Replies: @hhsiii
  190. @njguy73

    I tap my own maple trees at the end of winter, collect the sap in buckets, boil it down all night long over a fire outside and make maple syrup that lasts the whole year, but I won’t suggest you do that.

    • Replies: @njguy73
  191. Children have to go back to school when the next school year begins. People have to go back to work certainly by then or sooner. Life has to go on.

    There will be school in the fall because parents need to go to work.

    Question: why children need to go to school?
    Answer: because their parents need to go to work.
    Question: wouldn’t it be more effective, then, not to have children at all so to stay at work longer?
    Answer: Fertility rate, total (births per woman) – United States

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
  192. HA says:
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    “People’s lives are being derailed, damage that will take years to fix, if ever.”

    And that’s 100% related to the policies designed to lessen the impact of coronavirus as opposed to fears and anxiety related to the virus itself? There would have been no excess deaths or psychological trauma among suicidally vulnerable people sparked by seeing grandma being suffocated by pneumonia as if she were some waterboarded prisoner, or from wondering why the government is not doing more about that surge of deaths that we’re all trying to ignore so as not to spook the markets, or however it was supposed to work in your ideal corona-response scenario?

    Maybe Sailer is not the one who needs to open his eyes and wake up from his Covid-related coma.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    , @Redman
  193. @adreadline

    There will be school in the fall because parents need to go to work.

    That does not follow from what I wrote. I am as against school-as-daycare as you are.

  194. J.Ross says:
    @HA

    Florida and New York exist. New York not only shut down retardedly but gloried in state power by forcing nursing homes to accept the infected. They not only have grandmas drowning in Xi Jinping Cough, they have about thirty per cent more than they should. Florida did not lock down but did take every possible precaution and care with the major target group, the elderly. Their numbers are fine. This was not a pandemic. This was an enormous temporary danger to elderly people. Elderly people should have been protected along the lines taken by DeSantis.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    , @HA
  195. @Stephen Dodge

    “Most” places? Don’t be absurd. By any measure test scores have increased dramatically from the time when welfare use was high, most particularly among the demographics that used welfare the most.

    “Child care” is what happens when kids *aren’t* in school, so by definition, school is not child care. And fortunately, no one gives a fuck what “some of us” want, particularly when “some of us” think that just because children aren’t smart means that education is nothing more than child caare.

  196. @Buzz Mohawk

    That’s the second time someone said “school is daycare”. It is not daycare. It is certainly a means of keeping kids safe and off the street while their parents work, but back in the halcyon days you people dream of, when women were good little biddies in the home, children went to school and the women stayed home doing nothing.

    What *is* true is that women were able to move into the workplace quite easily with only a few years of additional expense of *actual* daycare, precisely because the practice of sending kids to school for most of the work day was already an expense baked into the social network.

    And back then, kids didn’t learn much either.

    @adreadline :

    “Question: why children need to go to school?
    Answer: because their parents need to go to work.”

    For reasons specified above, this is untrue and really pretty stupid.

    It’s entirely true that we can’t get parents back to work until schools are open. But that’s because *education* is defined in a way that allowed parents to work outside the home, not because education was created to help get parents to work.

    Why are people so dim on this point?

  197. @education realist

    I did not say “school is daycare.” I said I am against school-as-daycare. (As a teacher, you should have better reading comprehension.) Notice that I was arguing against a commenter who did imply that school is daycare.

    It is all a matter of how school is used, what function it serves. I am not your enemy.

    • Replies: @adreadline
  198. @Anonymous

    Three new infections in two weeks on a basis of 100 000 people means – the big threat in Switzerland is over. Hospitals and intensive care beds especially are empty. Time to take a deep breath to relax and be relieved and grateful.

  199. Anonymous[192] • Disclaimer says:
    @Steve Sailer

    We’ve already killed more people from coronavirus panic and lockdown than from the disease proper. It’s going to get worse.
    And the brutal, unpalatable fact is this is a disease that mostly kills people whose actuarial future was not rosy to begin with. We’ve lost some real talents and many families have been impacted, but on the whole we are killing a lot of young and healthy and ruining the future of others in a vain attempt to save old and ill people in a way that isn’t even well thought out to do that.

    Let everyone go back to work, pass a special progressive tax with a specific end date to subsidize special isolation for the five percent at genuine risk, and get on with it. And let’s acknowledge that while coronavirus did deprive a few people who still had some quality time left of that, it also mercifully took a fair number of people in advanced dementia and debilitation, saving them and their loved ones purposeless agony. I’m sorry of that offends people, but it’s the cold hard truth.

  200. Anonymous[192] • Disclaimer says:
    @Steve Sailer

    We’ve already killed more people from coronavirus panic and lockdown than from the disease proper. It’s going to get worse.
    And the brutal, unpalatable fact is this is a disease that mostly kills people whose actuarial future was not rosy to begin with. We’ve lost some real talents and many families have been impacted, but on the whole we are killing a lot of young and healthy and ruining the future of others in a vain attempt to save old and ill people in a way that isn’t even well thought out to do that.

    Let everyone go back to work, pass a special progressive tax with a specific end date to subsidize special isolation for the five percent at genuine risk, and get on with it. And let’s acknowledge that while coronavirus did deprive a few people who still had some quality time left of that, it also mercifully took a fair number of people in advanced dementia and debilitation, saving them and their loved ones purposeless agony. I’m sorry of that offends people, but it’s the cold hard truth.

    • Replies: @adreadline
  201. @Alexander Turok

    History will show, you have no intellectual currency whatsoever, dumbass.

  202. @B36

    So many weird things about this virus. Like…it’s been berry berry good for myocardial infarctions…

    And that means – lots of deaths wrongly attributed to CO-19.

  203. hhsiii says:
    @Mr McKenna

    Pretty easy. Just called local emergent care place in Riverhead. Part of Northwell Health system. Booked a slot two hours later. Drove up and called. They came out in 5 minutes. In and out in 5 minutes. They said it would take 5-7 days for results. Came back in 2 days.

    My wife was negative. This bed must be bigger than I thought.

    We didn’t check the kids. But they’ve had no symptoms. Good lord, they better have school in September.

    • Replies: @Travis
    , @kaganovitch
  204. Thoughts says:
    @education realist

    School is / as / is totally daycare for a large segment of the population.

    Whatja talkin’ about willis?

    • Replies: @education realist
  205. @Anon

    I was going to LOL, but restrained myself.

  206. George says:

    “Normally, if you have an epidemic, you shut the schools. ”

    Did they shut down anything in ’57 or ’69? Did they achieve herd immunity? I suspect this herd immunity jargon is only possible by universal vaccination. Did they achieve herd immunity in 1918? Maybe herd immunity only exists as a talking point for justifying vaccines?

    1969 Hong Kong Flu https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_flu#Mortality

    Currently there is an amusing troll fight fight over whether or not the Woodstock music event occurred during the epidemic or during a lull in the epidemic.

    Misleading claim: Woodstock took place in the middle of a pandemic
    https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-woodstock-pandemic-1968-idUSKBN22J2MJ

    Another pandemic, 1957-1958, the rock n roll pandemic.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1957%E2%80%931958_influenza_pandemic

    Searching on 1957 I see pics of Elvis and cars but no people in masks.

    First recorded by Huey ‘Piano’ Smith in 1957, during the pandemic of ’57, Rockin’ Pneumonia and the Boogie Woogie Flu

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rockin%27_Pneumonia_and_the_Boogie_Woogie_Flu

    Huey Piano Smith – Rockin’ Pneumonia and the Boogie Woogie Flu

  207. @Buzz Mohawk

    I’m not against school-as-daycare. I don’t have an opinion on the matter. But, for many, and sometimes it seems even most parents, school has been daycare for a good while. I’m also not for or against Americans having fewer children, but they are having fewer children, and I believe at least in part due to kids throwing the wrench in one’s career gears, particularly but not solely in the woman’s. Not having them makes everything easier — not having children, that is, not not having careers.

    The quote you pasted on your comment, by the way, is not yours, but from another commenter, which is why my comment isn’t a simple reply to your comment. I do think that quote and your quote share similar views, so I put them together. Not only I find both quotes do imply/acknowledge school is daycare (regardless of one’s opinion on that) but also, more broadly, that children have (need) to go back to school and parents have (need) to go back to work. Question: why? Answer: because that is how it was. (I’m not for or against that view, either)

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
  208. @education realist

    “Question: why children need to go to school?
    Answer: because their parents need to go to work.”

    For reasons specified above, this is untrue and really pretty stupid.

    It’s entirely true that we can’t get parents back to work until schools are open.

    So, at least one good reason for children needing to go (back) to school is so that their parents can go (back) to work, no?

    But that’s because *education* is defined in a way that allowed parents to work outside the home, not because education was created to help get parents to work.

    I didn’t say, or imply, that children’s education was created so that parents could go to work (although I’d not so quickly dismiss that possibility; I don’t know the history well enough). I did imply it is its (unofficial, likely not acknowledged in polite dinner conversations) current purpose: today, parents can go to work in good part due to children’s education existing. Which you agree is true. You seem to strongly disagree with the related view that children’s education exists today at least in part so that parents can go to work. I think it does.

    That’s the second time someone said “school is daycare”. It is not daycare.

    You might disagree that it should, that it ought to be daycare. But it is seen as daycare by many parents today, effectively making it daycare for them. Your opinion might make the strongest, most undeniable argument that school should not serve the same purpose as daycare, and might have many merits and we might do well paying notice to it. But parents all over treat it as daycare (even if they won’t openly admit doing so).

  209. @Buzz Mohawk

    I did not say “school is daycare.” I said I am against school-as-daycare. (As a teacher, you should have better reading comprehension.)

    As with that commenter, you might strongly disagree with school-as-daycare and make the most impeccable argument defending your view, one that could even serve as a modern-day education manifesto, read far and wide. School still is — still serves as — right now, in practice, daycare for many parents.

  210. Kyle says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Your wife may be a math whiz, but apparently she doesn’t give great at home hair cuts.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
  211. Anonymous[118] • Disclaimer says:
    @Alexander Turok

    Do the coroners receive a bounty from medicare for every COVID-19 death they report?

    Are all deaths examined and classified by coroners?

    Must a coroner personally receive a direct “bounty,” or could COVID-19 deaths mean more income to the coroner’s hospital, city, or state?

  212. Anonymous[118] • Disclaimer says:
    @Stephen Dodge

    I really hope it does not turn out that way —- there are a lot of energetic people who are trying to make sure it does not turn out that way —- but there were many many dangerous imbeciles on the egghead-cheered lockdown side, and it is sad for us now, looking back even just a few months, to see how much more ignorant they were than they thought they were.

    What should the United States have done differently?

    • Replies: @Stephen Dodge
  213. Travis says:
    @hhsiii

    Good to hear. Maybe your wife was able to fight off coronavirus with her innate immune system, thus had no need to create antibodies. Over the last few months there have been multiple stories about one spouse getting CV while the other spouse sharing their bed never became infected. Even on the Princess cruise ship when they were forced to stay in a small room for weeks, often one spouse never became infected. Makes me wonder how many people will never contract this illness because they have a strong immune system.

    • Replies: @hhsiii
  214. Ganderson says:
    @Barnard

    I’m a public high school teacher. I never wished to close, always wanted to go back. Remote learning is a joke. Nobody’s learnin’ nuttin!

    I’m retiring in 3 weeks. I won’t get to say goodbye in person to my kids and colleagues, and they won’t let me into my room to clean out my stuff.

    All to serve the cult.

    All praise to Corona chan and his high priest Charlie “Tall Deval” Baker.

  215. Redman says:
    @HA

    Care to show the evidence of this “surge of deaths” we’re all supposedly ignoring? Curious.

    • Replies: @HA
  216. Ganderson says:
    @Polynikes

    You are correct. I’m 65, and the third oldest person in our building. Most teachers (not me, though) in their 60’s are women who took time off mid career to raise kids. In my case I didn’t start teaching public school until I was 40.

    I want to go back, although by this point it’s moot. I’ll take my chances.

  217. @adreadline

    I do think that quote and your quote share similar views, so I put them together. Not only I find both quotes do imply/acknowledge school is daycare…

    No. What I wrote was: “Children have to go back to school when the next school year begins. People have to go back to work certainly by then or sooner. Life has to go on.”

    My statement was only meant to say:

    1) Adults need to go back to work.

    2) Children need to go back to school.

    I meant those two things independently, and you interpreted it as me implying that #2 needs to happen so that #1 can happen. I did not mean that.

    Oh well. Thanks for your explanation anyway.

    • Replies: @adreadline
  218. Corvinus says:
    @J.Ross

    “Their numbers are fine.”

    Depends upon how one define’s “fine”.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/20/us/florida-georgia-covid-19-test-data/index.html

    https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/05/19/florida-sees-502-new-cases-of-covid-19-as-turmoil-unfolds-over-states-virus-data-dashboard/

    “This was not a pandemic.”

    Actually, it is a pandemic.

    “This was an enormous temporary danger to elderly people. Elderly people should have been protected along the lines taken by DeSantis.”

    No, it’s a danger to people, in particular the elderly. And DeSantis has his own issues.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/05/20/coronavirus-florida-gov-ron-desantis-disputes-data-manipulation/5226744002

    https://abcnews.go.com/US/florida-begins-reopen-state-businesses-data-shows-significant/story?id=70747130

  219. @Anonymous

    We’ve already killed more people from coronavirus panic and lockdown than from the disease proper. It’s going to get worse.

    And you know this how? You say this very assuredly, anonymous person number 192. Any sources? Please share them. I’m interested.

    And let’s acknowledge that while coronavirus did deprive a few people who still had some quality time left of that, it also mercifully took a fair number of people in advanced dementia and debilitation, saving them and their loved ones purposeless agony. I’m sorry of that offends people, but it’s the cold hard truth.

    In other words, WuFlu killed them (or, like Trump newsaid, affected them very badly). But a fair number of them, in your opinion, were better off dead because they were demented and debilitated. Which might well be true: life must be truly horrible while demented and shitting one’s diapers. Personally I’d possibly prefer to be dead than in such a condition (not that I think the old geezers agree or should agree). But it’s the newspeak that amuses me: they were deprived of some quality time, or badly affected, mind you!

  220. NOTA says:
    @BenKenobi

    Having her attempted poisoning of her husband become national front-page news probably wasnt part of her plan….

    • Replies: @Redman
  221. Polynikes says:
    @res

    One should be prepared to back up what one says.

    At some point it becomes superfluous to provide documentation for well known things. If you earnestly did not know that, then I apologize. I’m assuming you have no children? Or maybe had children a long time ago? It is standard protocol for the nurses and doctors to warn new parents of seasonal flus and colds, because they cause young children are more susceptible than healthy adults.

    Statistically, it is still quite unlikely your child dies from the flu. But it is much more likely than covid19 is to take a young one. Further, I’ve seen you in the comment sections on these posts, so I assume you are well versed in many of the stats. The relative lack of effect on children has been known quite early on and the stats are relatively the same country to country. To the extent that kids are even being counted in the deaths, is most likely deaths “with” coronavirus not due to it–which you aptly noticed.

    • Replies: @res
  222. On Americas tombstone it will say
    WE WERE ALL IN THIS TOGETHER
    DIVERSITY WAS OUR STRENGTH
    that jackass general from the fort hood shooting can preside over the funeral

  223. @hhsiii

    If total infection rate in your area is same as or below false positive rate, your results are as likely to be false positive as real.

    • Replies: @hhsiii
  224. @dr kill

    Yeah, those jaundiced old winos always look so happy in their little tents.

  225. njguy73 says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    I didn’t say I do homeschool anyone. I don’t. I don’t claim to be self-sufficient. I was pointing out that anytime I hear someone complaining about the lousy system, any suggestions I offer about bucking the system fall on deaf ears.

    You seem like the kind of person who could survive outside the system. And your wife sounds like the kind of person who could beat the public schools at their own game.

    • Thanks: Buzz Mohawk
  226. Anonymous[118] • Disclaimer says:
    @moshe

    It demonstrates a police officer attempting to taze a man they had no business tazing.

    The man appeared to be going for something in his pocket after being detained and behaving aggressively toward police who were trying to de-escalate the situation. All of that is evident in the video if you watch the whole thing.

    Moreover, the man had driven his car out onto the grass of a park in an isolated area known for drug trafficking.

    I haven’t heard it suggested anywhere, but was Arbery all there mentally? Was he a little bit crazy? That would help explain his solitary forays into places he didn’t belong (homes, school gyms (with a firearm), park grass (with a car), police officers (walking aggressively at them), other civilians (punching them and trying to grab their gun).

    • Replies: @moshe
  227. @Polynikes

    Excess mortality seems like a decent enough ballpark judge, and it is running about 80k and just about all tapped out. All CDC labeled deaths are about 90k, but just 60k if you only take the original more strict coding that includes (but not requires) testing. All states show a decline in percentage of test positives regardless of policy. 70k to 100k deaths would be a good final, ballpark guess. Somewhere between a pretty bad flu year and once a generation flu year.

    Poly, i’m more or less with you on the incentives and these numbers.

    But then you throw in this absolute nonsensical analogy.

    No “flu year” during my lifetime–even ’57–has been like this.

    It isn’t even a “flu year”, it’s a “flu two-and-half-months”–basically only starting in March, and ramping up rapidly in April when a typical “flu year” is dying and then cratering. Add in next October, November, December and January and February–the peak flu months–then lets see what the numbers look like.

    And … we stepped on this thing very hard, unlike any measures we’ve taken for any epidemic every. (We are only maybe 5% infected.)

    Here’s some more realistic numbers:

    — No action, media blackout on what’s going on–not even possible–so that people as much as possible do “normal life” — today, 150m infected, 1.2m dead (death rate runs hotter because of hospital crowding); eventually 220m infected 1.5m dead.

    — No lockdown, just people/businesses reacting on their own — today, 4om infected, 250,000 dead

    — No lockdown, but intelligent public health advice on masks, nursing homes, zinc, vit A, vit D, etc. — today 20m infected, but similar 60-90k deaths as today (lower death rate)

    — AnotherDad in charge — today 34 deaths; (i would have slammed the border shut and quarantined everyone coming back from China as soon as NSA/CIA gave me reports that the Chinese had cooked up yet another nasty virus)

    • Replies: @Lars Porsena
  228. hhsiii says:
    @kaganovitch

    Good to know. Thanks. But NYC has an antibody rate of 20% as a whole. I haven’t been there since March 23 (except for one day, March 31), but I was taking the subway twice a day through Mid March. I doubt the false positive rate is that high. At least I hope not.

    I think they are using Northwell test, whatever they are using, at faith based institutions in NYC. Which is one reason they are now touting 40% in Morrisania (Bronx), Brownsville (Booklyn), etc. High minority areas.

    But appreciate the word to the wise. I’m not going around giving hugs and acting like I’m immune or can’t spread, or can’t still get it. I still go to the supermarket, but wear a mask, etc.

    • Replies: @hhsiii
  229. @Alice

    In my town here in Northern NJ the high school kids are hanging out with their friends , even when the parks were closed I often saw them walking together in groups of 5 or biking together and some were visiting their friends homes. While there is certainly less activity than typical , social interaction among teenagers is still occurring.

    We have been allowing our kids to play with others in the town. They play outside around the neighborhood and sometimes I get my kids playing soccer with 5 other boys in the school field nearby.

    About 4 weeks ago a neighbor called the police because of the kids playing. Not sure exactly what the cop said to my son , he basically ignored the cop and the boys went back to playing , I was inside watching their activities that day.

  230. HA says:
    @Hail

    “The message, however, is still the same: The number of “related” deaths is still within the range of what’s normal for a “flu” and, thus, doesn’t require any [more] precautions […] than what’s normal for a “flu”.

    Thanks so much — let’s see if I can summarize that squid-shooting-cloud-of-ink defense of Wittkowski to its bare essentials:

    When asked why he predicted that only ten thousand would die, his answer was: “I meant to say a number ‘within the ‘usual flu range’ would die’” and when pressed on the fact that the upper range of normal flu seasons is actually more like 62,000 and at 90K we’re well past that already, he handwaves the usual rigamarole about “dying with COVID” (even though according to excess death rate comparisons — which the corona-truthers seemed to have lost interest in once those weird spikes started showing up — the number of dead would be even higher.)

    Most tellingly, we’re apparently supposed to ignore all the unprecedented social distancing and lockdowns that he said would be unnecessary, which prevented the number of deaths from being even higher (as we can tell from the fact that cultures and groups that disregarded such norms — e.g. Orthodox Jews, Air b-n-b partygoeers, etc. — are taking disproportionate mortality hits).

    So this would be like a guy who tells the neighbors “don’t bother calling the fire trucks and the bucket brigade, it’s just going to be a regular brush fire, trust me” and then, after ignoring him and calling up a never-before-seen number of trucks and ladders and hoses, all of which eventually manages to limit the damage to only a few houses, he says “See? — not that much damage — what’d I tell you?” (And then, when pressed on the matter, goes on to blame the damage that did happen on the fire brigade.)

    If anyone wants to know why the #coronahoaxers are regarded as untrustworthy sleazebags who use their 20/20 hindsight to be able to claim “I told you so” about things they never told anyone (or else told a thousand different things to a thousand different people, using vague and subsequently reshaped language, so that they could later cherry-pick the things that look best and ignore what doesn’t), there’s your answer. No wonder Wittkowski is their go-to guy. Peas in a pod.

  231. @Buzz Mohawk

    Very well, I stand corrected, thanks for your reply. However, if one does not need the other to happen, then why do children need to go back to school? Did I anticipate your (and possibly others’) answer correctly? (i.e. “because they went to school before”, an appeal to tradition) And while we’re at it, why do adults need to go back to work as before? Why do we need to go back to things as they were before? I could elaborate on what I mean — like whether it’s true or not that much of work and education can now be done remotely, and if it’s true, what are the implications and consequences of that — but I wrote too much in this thread already, so I won’t.

  232. @res

    Week 10 is 2 weeks into March, that doesn’t really get you to the start of coronavirus in the US.

    So I agree with the guys take and a I disagree that it even a different take. The graph I posted doesn’t even show April but the numbers in April will continue to be revised for up to a year later. So increasingly better data on April to peak in April 2021. His chart shows no data for April yet.

    • Replies: @res
  233. Hail says: • Website
    @Alexander Turok

    If some people are so psychologically broken they can’t stay inside for two months without OD-ing on drugs, that’s their problem, not ours.

    You will survive Corona (good and hard). Under the full force of the state. Or die trying.

    You can’t make a Corona-Salvation-Omelette without breaking a few eggs.
    Anyway, those suicides are just Corona-Negative Losers. Who cares about those guys

  234. HA says:
    @J.Ross

    “Florida and New York exist.”

    Yeah, thanks so much for the 20/20 hindsight and that profound pearl of wisdom, Captain O., and trying to change the subject, but you’re not as helpful as you seem to think. The point was that blaming everything on the coronavirus response (much of which the coronahoaxers were previously telling us was totally unnecessary, even though — like you — they’re subsequently taking credit for cherry-picked portions of the population that suits them), and nothing on the virus itself is not going to fool anyone who doesn’t want to be fooled.

    Look at the comments I replied to, as opposed to changing the subject. They’re blaming the spike in suicides on the “panic” without as if a deadly virus that is wiping out tens of thousands of grandmas isn’t causing its own surge of suicides among the vulnerable. Just like they want to present the net effect of the coronavirus and the offsetting social distancing as proof that all that social distancing was unnecessary. In both cases, they use 20/20 hindsight to apportion the blame and credit wherever it suits them.

    The coin came up heads, you say? Great — that means I win. Wait, you say it was actually tails? Well, in that case, that means you lose. What a fun game.

  235. @AnotherDad

    Look at actual flu years. Don’t average the past and compare to an un-averaged present. That is a big mistake that always makes the present look extraordinary.

    See the all deaths graph I posted. 2017-2018 all deaths, the peak for the flu that year hits about 14 weeks. 60,000-80,000 dead mainly in 14 weeks.

    If you average 2017-2018 over the whole year, it looks small compared to the 2015 14-week spike unaveraged over the year.

  236. res says:
    @Alice

    Thanks! I wish they had split that 0-24 bucket into 0-4, 5-14, and 15-24. Or something like that.

    Actually, it turns out they did in the data you can download! Also broken out by sex as M/F/All.

    Haven’t decided if I am going to dig into this in detail yet, but taking a quick look at the week I see with peak 0-24 deaths (4/11) for both sexes (23) I see:

    Age Group | Total Deaths | COVID-19 deaths
    Under 1 | 243 | 0
    1-4 | 50 | 1
    5-14 | 89 | 2
    15-24 | 581 | 20
    25-34 | 1,246 | 96
    35-44 | 1,947 | 247
    45-54 | 3,776 | 747
    55-64 | 9,146 | 1,889
    65-74 | 14,508 | 3,198
    75-84 | 18,032 | 3,914
    85 | 22,801 | 4,176

    I think this supports the idea that children (here 14 and under) are minimally impacted (even more so than I thought).

  237. Hail says: • Website
    @Hypnotoad666

    The official 80,000 death toll is at least 25% inflated.

    There is also not a strict conceptual dichotomy of “deaths with” and “deaths from” from which we can make a firm calculation of how much the death toll is inflated. Pro-Panic partisans can fight over the scraps to keep it high if they want (and they do).

    ___________

    I see three relevant umbrella/conceptual categories for corona-positive deaths (and in some cases untested COVID-presumed deaths):

    (1) Healthy people with many years of healthy life left, with no other diseases or conditions than the Wuhan Coronavirus; subdividable into three conceptual subgroups:
    — (1a.) Healthy children or adolescents;
    — (1b.) Healthy working-age people;
    — (1c.) Healthy older people of retired age;

    (2) Ambiguous cases. People with other conditions clearly contributing to a person’s ill health and/or death;

    (3) Deathbed patients expected to die very soon of another cause and/or people who very obviously died of another cause (“gunshot to head victim dies of coronavirus”).

    An epidemic is not a serious matter if (3) dominates the deaths.

    An epidemic is a really serious matter if (1) constitutes a large share or majority and the numbers are demonstrably high without media-fluff or panicked-alarmist-fluff.

    From a society’s self-preservation perspective, it’s especially about the younger end of (1b.) and (1a.). These people are simply not dying from COVID; you’d need a very large sample to find any clear cases of deaths to those groups, and they would always be flukes, just like getting hit by a bus or struck by lightning is a fluke, etc.

    I believe we have seen, from “excellent-record-keeping, no-lockdown Sweden,” now with a large sample size, that the range of the deaths looks like this:

    (1a.) [healthy children] zero deaths (or possibly a fluke death here or there)
    (1b.) [healthy working-age] zero deaths (or possibly a fluke death here or there)
    (1c.) [healthy old age] small number of deaths, maybe 0.01% of this subpopulation (<5% of total cases)

    (2) [ambiguous cases] 25% of total deaths

    (3) [deathbed of obvious-other-cause death] 70%+ of total deaths

    (Sources, my calculations of a close look at Swedish corona-positive causes of death [in line with early reports that “about one-third of the deaths are deaths-from”] and the age-profile of Swedish corona-positive deaths.)

    • Replies: @HA
    , @Hypnotoad666
  238. @Ganderson

    This was going to be my wife’s victory lap too, at her Catholic high school. She’s not a quitter, so it’s just sad.

  239. Hey, this sounds just like what I was predicting — a decon chamber at every building entrance. Add a metal detector and put ’em in schools!

    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/disinfecting-tunnels-are-headed-supermarkets-post-covid-world

  240. res says:
    @Polynikes

    If you earnestly did not know that, then I apologize.

    I earnestly did not know the flu was worse than COVID-19 for children. My mistake was extrapolating the fatality vs. age data for both (they decline exponentially as age decreases) all the way to childhood. I also did not realize the flu was as bad as it is for children.

    No need to apologize. The mistake was mine. I am pretty cranky about COVID-19 misinformation at this point and jumped on you harder than I should have–especially given that you appear to be right (and I am even more convinced of that after looking at the data Alice pointed me to).

    So I apologize for jumping on you like that (especially when you were right, I HATE when people do that to me). I’m just glad we were able to get to the point where I got more data (some excellent data sources which were new to me) and learned something. Thank you for that.

    At some point it becomes superfluous to provide documentation for well known things.

    This can be a hard one. IMHO sometimes the “well known things” are the most important to back up since everyone assumes they are so. But I agree there is a point where you are right. It’s just that if something is both well known and true it should be relatively easy to support.

  241. hhsiii says:
    @Travis

    Actually, anecdotally true. She had a fever a week before I did, very slight, back in March. I forgot. It was only 99.5, which doesn’t even count. She’s 17 years younger, and always been a bit of a germaphobe anyway.

    Her boss had it, wife and kids no.

  242. HA says:
    @Redman

    “Care to show the evidence of this “surge of deaths” we’re all supposedly ignoring?”

    I’m referring to however it was supposed to work in the previous commenter’s “no panic, no lockdown” strategy, so you’d have to ask him or her about that. You can’t just look at excess suicides in this year and assume every single one of them was caused by panic or lockdowns or social distancing, or whatever it is that you don’t happen to like, and pretend there wouldn’t also be that many or more excess deaths under whatever scenario you were previously advocating. That’s not how it works

    If you want to see surge-of-death figures for how things looked even after an unprecedented amount of social distancing that has been brought up numerous times already. And, before anyone chimes in with the inevitable “but those were all caused by lockdowns!” consider the fact that groups who ignored social distancing restrictions (Somali Swedes, Orthodox Jews, Air B-n-B partygoers, etc.) continue to take a disproportionate hit from this virus, which suggests the surge would have been even higher with no social distancing and whatnot, though they’re plenty impressive enough as it is.

  243. res says:
    @Lars Porsena

    The impression I had from the original comment was that the graph was meant to imply COVID-19 was overblown. I think that was the way Farenheit took it in his (?) response so perhaps I should have replied to that comment instead.

    I agree with the take in your current comment. Did you follow the link I gave? Even with the late reporting issue there is a clear spike in total deaths in mid-April and the percentage of pneumonia deaths is almost double the trend. The previous peak for that was in 2017-18 at around 50% over trend.

    https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

    • Replies: @Lars Porsena
  244. hhsiii says:
    @hhsiii

    OK, it’s the Abbott Architect Test. Note, not the one, IDNOW, that’s superfast and now a controversy because NYU found a lot of issues with it (Abbott pushing back, etc).

    Architect test per U of Washington study is 99.9% accurate for positves (only 1 false positive in over a thousand), and 100% acurate for negatives.

    So whether that’s reliable or not, pretty high rate of accuracy most likely.

    • Thanks: Meretricious
  245. @hhsiii

    Your information is very interesting. Thank you for sharing it.

    My wife and I know a small number of people who have had it, and they all are fine. We don’t know anybody who knows anybody who has had it who is not fine.

    • Thanks: hhsiii
  246. botazefa says:
    @Mr. Anon

    Another question that ought to be asked is why a radical, never-before-used policy was implemented and what the actual origins of that policy were.

    There was no overarching policy – only CDC ‘guidance.’

    Guidance that was implemented to varying degrees across city, county, and state governments.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
  247. @res

    Yeah, the spike from this thing is going to be worse than 2017-2018 flu season, it already is.

    But it will be interesting to look at that in context when we finally get that graph. It’s going to look like… a pretty bad flu season I bet.

    I would guess: The width of the spike is comparable. The height of the spike, maybe 30%-100% worse than 2017-18.

    Put in that context (if I end up right) it doesn’t exactly explain our response to it. People will no doubt say “It was only that good because we went nuts, it would have been worse!”. But Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Texas are opening up and it is not totally gone yet, so if it made a difference, it should still get a lot worse when they stop making a difference. I am expecting no difference.

    • Replies: @res
  248. HA says:
    @Hail

    “I see three relevant umbrella/conceptual categories for corona-positive deaths…”

    Great. More shifting the goalposts after the fact and then claiming the ball would have gotten in. So let’s dispense for a moment with the claim that coronavirus is “just the flu, bro”, and instead argue — after the fact, mind you — that the deaths it inflicts aren’t deaths we should care about. A variation of “Your honor, my client didn’t kill all those people, but even if he did, they kind of had it coming.”

    Again, if anyone wants to know why the corona-truthers were dismissed as cranks and kooks, look no further than arguments such as these.

  249. Peter Frost says: • Website
    @Mr. Anon

    Not if it is wrongly attributed to COVID-19. Your comment is nonsensical.

    If deaths from other causes are wrongly attributed to COVID-19, we would not see a rise in excess mortality. We do.

    To date, excess mortality in the U.S. is 113,139 deaths.

    If we use the uppermost bound for expected deaths, we get a lower figure: 84,891 deaths.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

    The counterargument is that these people did not die from COVID-19. They died from the social and economic disruption due to the lockdowns. Specifically, the lockdowns drove many Americans to commit suicide or prevented them from getting medical assistance for other illnesses.

    If that argument is true, there should be a time lag between the lockdowns and the rise in excess mortality. There isn’t. The rise in excess mortality coincides with the rise in official COVID-19 deaths, which actually began before the lockdowns.

    I find it hard to believe that tens of thousands of Americans immediately decided to end it all when the lockdowns were imposed. That implies a degree of cold-blooded foresight that most of us don’t have. Wouldn’t they have waited a little while?

    • Thanks: HA
  250. @Barnard

    Barnard, The Agree button doesn’t come with a fireworks display. Nicely stated.

  251. @Ganderson

    Gangerson, enjoy your retirement.

    • Agree: moshe
    • Replies: @Ganderson
  252. @Kyle

    LOL. She wants to! My “Man Groomer” self-haircut tool arrived, and I haven’t used it yet. I’m having too much fun letting my hair grow out. She really wants to do it for me, and I really want to try it for myself. Maybe I will let her do one side and I’ll do the other.

    BTW, I picked out her hair-color-in-a-box, based on an email advice to her from her stylist. Ash blonde, the lightest. My wife used it, and she looks great! And we saved $200 ! She goes to a typically expensive salon, and I don’t think she needs to. Her stylist, however, is one of those tens-of-millions of Americans with no income now.

  253. @Peter Frost

    Your numbers are the truth. What is relevant is the question: How much damage are we willing to cause in order to prevent more deaths?

    The middle ground on this is the answer, and the dialectic, as exemplified on this site, is supposed to help find the answer. Fighting to save lives is a noble endeavor, but it must be measured by its cost. So far, what we have in most places is a great fight but no consideration for “collateral damage.”

    Ask yourself: How much worse are these excess deaths than normal, as compared to how much worse off will we be from our efforts to prevent them? I contend that we are damaging tens of millions of lives for this. Maybe hundred of millions.

    • Replies: @Peter Frost
  254. moshe says:
    @Anonymous

    The man appeared to be going for something in his pocket after being detained

    His hands are nowhere near any pockets when the ratatatat of the police’s taser begins.

    Are you blind or just a reflexive apologist for “our boys in blue”?

    I haven’t watched the jogging video or read anything else about him, including any of Steve’s writeups. It’s just not an issue that interests me much. But my assumption was that the media was lying and your link to this video gave me an easy opportunity to back up my own assumption in 2 minutes.

    But your video failed to do that.

    • Agree: Meretricious
  255. @Anon

    587, Drove through Niagara Falls and then along the escarpment and passed a couple of country clubs. Some golfers walking most riding one to a cart. Never understood the need to hoard TP. One twelve pack lasts a long time.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    , @Jim Don Bob
  256. @varsicule

    varsi, all black suicides have to be investigated as a homicide, especially any that self-lynch themselves.

  257. @Ganderson

    Remote learning is a joke.

    Impromptu remote learning, perhaps. Our son enrolled in a public online school in September. When every other school closed, his carried on as normal.

    What’s all this about a “lockdown”? Is there a shooter on the loose?

    • Replies: @Ganderson
  258. Peter Frost says: • Website
    @Buzz Mohawk

    How much worse are these excess deaths than normal, as compared to how much worse off will we be from our efforts to prevent them? I contend that we are damaging tens of millions of lives for this. Maybe hundred of millions.

    I would contend that far more Americans will die and suffer under the policy of “riding it out.”

    Most pandemics of this nature have a second and third wave. Typically, the first wave is not the worst. So if nothing is done, the final death toll in the U.S. will be over half a million.

    I understand that lockdowns disrupt the economy, but that disruption is going to happen regardless. People will avoid crowds and adjust their economic behavior accordingly. If you wait for herd immunity, you’re going to have three years of economic uncertainty. Wouldn’t it be better for the economy, and more humane for the American people, to push the value of Ro below 1 and let the pandemic die out? Doesn’t that make more sense economically?

    I’m not an American. It’s not for me to tell you how to run your country. From my perspective, however, this seems to be yet another case of the American people being bamboozled by their elites.

    For God’s sake, the elites want things to go on as “normal.” They don’t care if several hundred thousand Americans die in the process. Those lives mean nothing to them. The American economy has become a machine that serves them, the top 1%. If you don’t believe me, just read what they read. They feel no more in common with you than they do with people on the other side of the world.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    , @Desiderius
  259. res says:
    @Lars Porsena

    Put in that context (if I end up right) it doesn’t exactly explain our response to it. People will no doubt say “It was only that good because we went nuts, it would have been worse!”. But Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Texas are opening up and it is not totally gone yet, so if it made a difference, it should still get a lot worse when they stop making a difference. I am expecting no difference.

    I think the following assertions are true.
    – Much of what was done was unnecessary.
    – Some of what was done was helpful. And without that things would have gotten ugly in some places.
    – We will have a much better idea of who was right and who was wrong about many COVID-19 issues by the end of the next flu season.

  260. res says:
    @Peter Frost

    Thanks for that link. And everyone should be aware that reporting delay is going to end up making the recent weeks of that plot look even worse.

    Have you seen any estimates of the number of deaths avoided through decreased traffic and workplace accidents?

  261. @Buffalo Joe

    Never understood the need to hoard TP. One twelve pack lasts a long time.

    Yes it does, Sheryl.

    Rosie to Sheryl Crow: “Have You Seen My Ass?”

    • LOL: Buffalo Joe
  262. @Peter Frost

    I respect your opinion, but this part is backwards:

    From my perspective, however, this seems to be yet another case of the American people being bamboozled by their elites.

    For God’s sake, the elites want things to go on as “normal.”

    Whoever is controlling the narrative in the United States, they do not want things back to normal. They are pushing the fear, encouraging us to shut down. It is as if they want to turn us all into old, European paupers in the old, European feudal system.

    You aren’t an American, so maybe you can’t see it. Your analysis is 180 degrees opposite of what is obvious here.

    I also think you underestimate the costs of this and the changes it is making to our way of life. It is a train wreck unprecedented in our history. It isn’t just about the man who lost his income, but also about everybody who needs his payments, and so on and so on. This is insanity.

    You think it is just to save some lives, while I know it will destroy the lives of millions and wreck my country more than the “great depression” of the 1930s. There is no excuse. A hard decision must be made, and our leaders are cowardly and stupid, while others are taking advantage of this.

    You can’t see that from wherever you are, but certainly the same applies to your country. You just haven’t thought of it.

    • Agree: PiltdownMan, Desiderius
  263. Anonymous[118] • Disclaimer says:
    @hhsiii

    Actually, anecdotally true. She had a fever a week before I did, very slight, back in March. I forgot. It was only 99.5, which doesn’t even count. She’s 17 years younger, and always been a bit of a germaphobe anyway.

    You really had no symptoms? None at all?

    • Replies: @Hhsiii
  264. Redman says:
    @NOTA

    I think it went past attempted.

  265. Hhsiii says:
    @Anonymous

    99.5-100 fever in mid March which I thought was nothing. No other symptoms and felt fine. Called my doctor who said that’s nothing, don’t come in.

    I only checked my temperature because my wife felt off the week before. And the Covid was going around. Otherwise I’d never thought of it. But I normally run low, like 97.5.

  266. @Anonymous

    There are between 500 and 1000 Taleb fanboys working at NSA.
    If the president trusted even a single one of them, flights from Milano would have been stopped the same day flights from China were stopped.

    Wait, it gets worse.
    There are lots of people in Singapore and Thailand or Vietnam or Hong Kong, and about 500 to those smart people know an awful lot about predicting things like …. well, like what has been happening in the last few months.

    I get tired of telling people how the world works, but let me tell you how the world does not work. None of those people in Singapore or Thailand or Vietnam or Hong Kong were contacted by the 10 or 20 people close to our Pacific Rim governors, Not one. And while there are undauntedly and undoubtedly a few people in the Old Executive Office Building who know some of those 500 people, apparently none of those “folks”, as the clown Obama would call them, had access to anyone with any power at the federal level.

    And yes, their advice would have been to shut down travel from countries that had the January version of the Wuhan Bat Plague. And of course they would have had even more advice – can you imagine how the world would be different if Trump had ordered Pence to spend an hour on the phone with Hong Kong intelligence back in late January? Of course you can, you are not a blithering idiot. And you know Trump did not order Pence to do that, and Pence, bless his little mediocre heart, did not do it on his own. Look Trump is doing a great job, but that was a mistake that I would not have made.

    Instead, even brilliant people like Steve were wasting their time mocking the ceremonial leader of Thailand.

    I fell guilty for not calling you all out on that with an even stronger tone of disapproval.

    Oh well, non omnes omnia possum.

  267. Travis says:
    @hhsiii

    Studies have shown that 6% of hospitalized coronavirus patients never developed antibodies. 90% of them were under the age of 40. Younger people with strong innate immune systems can fight off this virus without creating antibodies. The elderly patients create the most antibodies, becuuse their innate immune systems are the weakest.

    Even vaccines do not work well for old people, because they have weaker immune systems. Although the Flu vaccine is somewhat protective in children and adults up to 49 years old, “no statistically significant protection was observed in other age groups,” including people 65 years and older. https://www.mdedge.com/jcomjournal/article/158749/influenza/mmwr-current-flu-vaccine-does-not-protect-elderly

    I wonder if any 70 year-olds are testing any potential CV vaccine ? It may well for younger people, but if the coronavirus vaccine is anything like the flu vaccine we should not expect the vaccine to work well for those over the age of 65
    https://medicalxpress.com/news/2017-06-flu-vaccine-ineffective-people-older.html

  268. Mr. Anon says:
    @Peter Frost

    If deaths from other causes are wrongly attributed to COVID-19, we would not see a rise in excess mortality. We do.

    That isn’t what I said. I said perhaps some of these deaths are caused by the lockdown and so are additional deaths that otherwise wouldn’t have happened.

    The counterargument is that these people did not die from COVID-19. They died from the social and economic disruption due to the lockdowns. Specifically, the lockdowns drove many Americans to commit suicide or prevented them from getting medical assistance for other illnesses.

    No, I said they’re unhealthy people who are dying from cardiac and cirulatory problems from sitting around their homes all day for weeks – now months – on end.

    Next time, change it up – address your argument to the Tin Man or the Cowardly Lion.

    • Replies: @res
  269. Mr. Anon says:
    @botazefa

    It was a CDC policy. They call it a guideline. Governors turned them into edicts enforced by men with guns. When men with guns haul you off to jail for infringing them, they are no longer “guidelines”.

    https://www.abqjournal.com/1450579/social-distancing-born-in-abq-teens-science-project.html

  270. res says:
    @Mr. Anon

    Next time, change it up – address your argument to the Tin Man or the Cowardly Lion.

    I need to remember that one ; )

  271. @Buffalo Joe

    One twelve pack lasts a long time.

    Not in a household with very many females it doesn’t. It goes so fast I sometimes think they are eating it.

  272. Thatgirl says:
    @Paul Rise

    Unfortunately, under our educational regime, if one child can’t get an education, then no child will be allowed to get an education.

    My kids’ school board reduced online instruction from five half-hour sessions per week to one half-hour session per week. The stated reason: anymore instruction would be inequitable to those kids supposedly without internet access.

    My husband was livid when we got the email explaining that policy.

  273. Thatgirl says:
    @A123

    This is exactly the dilemma my husband and I face right now. My kid’s preschool opens back up in a little over a week. I would like to get him back to school as he will have missed ten weeks of preschool by then and he is to start kindergarten in the fall. I also have been trying and failing to work from home while he is here.

    The problem is we live with my 82-year-old mother-in-law and don’t want to expose her to extra risk.

    But do I keep my kid home all summer? And then what about the fall?

    • Replies: @anon
  274. @Thoughts

    No, it’s not. It certainly keeps a small, not large, segment of kids off the streets and ideally forces their criminal record to begin at 18 or so. But it’s not large, and that’s not daycare, and the idea that it’s a waste of time to educate people is pretty damn dumb. They can refuse, sure, but the effort to give them the opportunity is not daycare.

    That’s just fact, and I teach a hell of a lot more burgeoning cfriminals than you do.

  275. @Thatgirl

    It has nothing to do with the educational regime. Some districts are making that decision, but it’s clearly not required by law.

    However, if the districts that *didn’t* do this get sued and lose, you’ll know why your district made that decision.

  276. America cannot come up with any answers, because we are a “diverse” society run under the “principles” of Jim Snow. For learning to occur, data would have to be disaggregated, depending on whether the group under scrutiny submitted to rules and laws or flamboyantly flouted them, but under Jim Snow, you’re not allowed to do that. You must always either dilute black evil by mixing their numbers with whites’ (e.g., crime rates for metropolitan areas), or disaggregate their numbers, while blaming all of their misdeeds on “white supremacy.”

  277. @Thatgirl

    The people in your area–actually, whites and Asians all over America–need to wage a tax strike, to starve the racist public schools, not to mention the racist (i.e., pro-black and Hispanic criminal) police.

    Over the years, many local tax preparers have turned this into a minor art.

    Indeed, the strike has been ongoing, but by the wrong people! My wife’s black and South Asian colleagues have been scamming white taxpayers for a generation. For example, they all make more than us, yet in the years before the city made school breakfasts and lunches “free” for everyone, their kids all “qualified,” because they lied about their income on the forms.

  278. anon[184] • Disclaimer says:
    @Thatgirl

    back up in a little over a week. I would like to get him back to school as he will have missed ten weeks of preschool by then and he is to start kindergarten in the fall. I also have been trying and failing to work from home while he is here.

    What exactly does the preschool do that can’t be done at home? What does the kindergarten do that can’t be done at home? Is this stuff mandatory or optional in your state?

    The problem is we live with my 82-year-old mother-in-law and don’t want to expose her to extra risk.

    Understandable.

    But do I keep my kid home all summer? And then what about the fall?

    You may have to choose between your remote job and actual education of your child.

    Search up John Taylor Gatto for some deeper discussion on “school” in America.

  279. lots of folks have a strong opinion about what the answer ought to be

    I do because I know what kind of care I got in the ICU when my wife was there vs what kind I got when my wife wasn’t.

    Massive.

    You cut off families from patients it’s bad, bad news, especially with this generation of administrators, head nurses and the like. Walk around the ward at 3 a.m. you see things.

    • Replies: @hhsiii
  280. @Peter Frost

    That doesn’t make any sense. If you’re in the hospital and all of a sudden your family is locked out and the nurses forget about you all night and you die there’s no time lag in that shit.

  281. @Peter Frost

    It’s not about the top 1% for God’s sake. Walmart’s doors have been welded open the whole time you utter fool. It’s about everyday people having our way of life decimated.

    What they want to know is when all the experts, including Steve, are coming to terms (Steve, alone, has been) with all the predictions you got massively wrong before you fly in unquestioning into making more and trying to shame us into following them.

  282. hhsiii says:
    @Desiderius

    My father died at a hospice a few years ago. My mother was a patients advocate at a metropolitan hospital in the 80s. She’s polite and too deferential to doctors/authority, but when she was around he got good care. He died over July 4th weekend. I guarantee he died hitting that nurse call button with his oxygen tank low or some such.

    • Agree: Desiderius
    • Replies: @Desiderius
  283. Gapeseed says:
    @Steve Sailer

    Hi Steve!

    No doubt bureaucrats do, but very few politician will want to argue the tradeoff of 6,000 points in the of the Dow Industrials, 20% unemployment, a reduce tax base and knock on deaths of 30,000 versus 100,000 lives taken by Covid, no matter how confident they might be in the model. It’s a minefield ripe for savage editorials, violent and emotional protests, and demagoguery.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
  284. @hhsiii

    I got in trouble one time for walking down six floors and across the hospital to the gift shop to buy some Tylenol after waiting three and a half hours without a response.

  285. @Gapeseed

    Bullshit on a stick.

    The tradeoffs are trivialially easy to quantify, but you have to want to first and the polls have been too strong in favor of lockdowns.

  286. @Hail

    There is also not a strict conceptual dichotomy of “deaths with” and “deaths from”

    That’s true, for sure. But, frankly, the whole concept of “causation” is a philosophical rabbit hole once you start to go down into it. For example, if someone dies from the cumulative effect of ten different conditions and lifestyle choices, it might be perfectly accurate to say that each of the ten was a “but for” cause of the death. In the law, they will sometimes apportion “comparative fault,” such as 30% of liability to X, 60% to Y, and 10% to Z.

    In the absence of something as nuanced as that, it would be nice is at least they should stick to the same methodology they use for determining whether regular influenza is “cause of death.”

  287. Ganderson says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    Reg- I agree that for highly motivated learners online learning works well, but to turn a large school system into a remote learning platform is suboptimal.

    On another note were you able to get any of those discounted TVs and other electronics from the Target on E. Lake St and Minnehaha?

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