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From 538:

CONSPIRACY THEORIES

The Twisted Logic Behind The Right’s ‘Great Replacement’ Arguments

By Kaleigh Rogers

Kaleigh Rogers is FiveThirtyEight’s technology and politics reporter.

MAY 26, 2022, AT 6:00 AM

Days after a white gunman shot 13 people, killing 10, at a grocery store in a majority-Black neighborhood in Buffalo, New York, Fox News host Tucker Carlson aired a segment about the “great replacement theory.” … It’s a narrative so prevalent on the right that nearly half of Republicans believe that immigrants are being brought to the country for political gains. According to a poll conducted in December by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, 47 percent of Republicans agreed with the statement that “there is a group of people in this country who are trying to replace native-born Americans with immigrants who agree with their political views.”

What would Foucault say about such a cynical view? Obviously, he’d agree that it’s sheerly a coincidence that Democrats favor letting in lots of Democratic-leaning immigrants.

… The theory’s first inaccurate assumption is that white Americans will soon become a minority population. But using any nuanced reading of the data, that’s not true. Yes, in 2015, the U.S. Census Bureau published a population projection that by the year 2044, non-Hispanic white Americans would no longer be a numerical majority in the country. But not being the majority is not the same as being a minority:

Yes, it is.

Even in that projection, non-Hispanic white Americans would still make up a plurality of the population compared with any other race.

The definition of a “plurality” is the largest minority.

… That nuance affects how Americans think about the future. The same research showed that presenting the demographic-shifts story as “majority-minority by 2044” prompts white Americans to say they feel more anxious and less hopeful. But when you present the same demographic changes in a more nuanced (and accurate) narrative around a rise in multiculturalism and Americans who identify as more than one race, white Americans’ self-reported anxiety was lower, even compared with a control group presented with basic facts about demographic changes with no narrative framing, according to the same study.

In other words, when we monopolize The Narrative, we can talk white people into believing our Narrative.

… Another plot hole in the mainstream replacement narrative is the assumption that immigrants will solely support the Democratic party. …

In fact, the GOP attracts voters from every racial group, and while white voters may be its base, not all nonwhite or immigrant voters are Democrats. That’s to say nothing of the fact that not all immigrants are naturalized and able to vote (take it from this immigrant, who has lived and worked in the U.S. for eight years and still can’t vote).

Another flawed assumption baked into the mainstream presentation of replacement theory is that losing a numerical majority means losing power, but in America, that’s not the case. The reality is that the demographic makeup of the U.S. has been shifting for decades, yet those in positions of power have not fully shifted to match. White men made up about 35 percent of the U.S. population yet held 85.8 percent of Fortune 500 CEO positions in 2020, according to a report from Richard Zweigenhaft, a professor emeritus of psychology who studies diversity at Guilford College in North Carolina. The handful of those seats not occupied by white men are held almost exclusively by white women: Just 1 percent of the Fortune 500 CEOs are Black, 2.4 percent are East Asians or South Asians and 3.4 percent are Latino, per Zweigenhaft’s 2021 report.

Our elected leaders remain out of step with the U.S. population as well. While the current Congress is the most racially diverse we’ve had, it’s still whiter than the general population. People who identify as non-Hispanic white made up 61.6 percent of the U.S. population in 2020, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, but accounted for 77 percent of the voting members in Congress.

To even engage with these incorrect assumptions feels a bit like legitimizing their baseless premise, but when about a third of Americans believe a conspiracy theory based on misleading presumptions, there’s value in carefully deconstructing the false narrative. And when the toothpick scaffolding that holds up the theory is exposed, it’s clear what’s really supporting this narrative: racism and fear.

 
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  1. Since the demographic composition of immigrants has nothing to do with anything important, the Dems must be totally cool with limiting immigration to only white Europeans. Right?

    • Thanks: Right_On, bomag
  2. Anonymous[389] • Disclaimer says:

    ” … Not being the majority is not the same as being the minority ….”

    In other news, a journalist has just declared that 1 plus 1 equals 3 because she says so.

    • Replies: @Bill Jones
  3. Altai says:

    Whether it’s the West Bank, East Jerusalem or Eastern Ukraine, the most important people in the MSM media in the US know full well demography is destiny.

  4. it’s clear what’s really supporting this narrative: racism and fear.

    Translation: Ukraine should welcome the Russians.

    • Agree: Almost Missouri
    • LOL: YetAnotherAnon
    • Replies: @Hangnail Hans
  5. Anonymous[100] • Disclaimer says:

    But not being the majority is not the same as being a minority

    Which is why we need to have the white/”people of colour” bifurcation drilled into us, to synthesize a majority that isn’t white.

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    , @AKAHorace
  6. @Hypnotoad666

    Gotta love her logic. Over and over, her argument reduces to: “Since the wreckage isn’t yet complete, it can’t possibly be in progress.”

    Trouble is, the S4B merkin populace will be persuaded by this. Not because the ‘argument’ is cogent or persuasive, but because it’s repeated a thousand times a day while any arguments to the contrary are silenced, caricaturized, or both.

  7. I like how the HBD crowd has a ho-hum attitude toward the destruction of their own people. Now, if it was a flu bug that hurt elderly gay folk singers, they’d be demanding a two year shutdown!

    That’s how you keep your Chase account, gang.

    But I’ve been told a lot of HBD’ers don’t identify with White people anyway, so I guess to them it all just some abstract puzzle with no personal meaning.

    • Agree: Travis
    • Replies: @Pixo
  8. As a non-American, it’s my impression that most racial conflict in the US is between whites, blacks and Jews. The exact alliances between these groups can shift depending on the issue and even on the day.

    By contrast, Hispanics and Asians seem to be mostly non-political and neutral. Most Asian-American activists are detested by their own kin and it bears repeating that they don’t represent anyone except a small, urbanite activist class of marginal ideologues.

    The vast majority of growth in the non-white population will be Latinx and Asian. I wouldn’t be surprised if the US had less racial strife 20 years from now than it does today.

  9. @Henry's Cat

    Has Matty Iglesias offered to go over and tell the Ukrainians that they should leave their country in order to make room for more immigrants? Maybe someone from the New York Times could go? Immigrants are more Ukrainian than Ukrainians are. Anyone can see that, jeez.

  10. This narrative war is 100 % communicative action territory.***

    ***See: Theory of Communicative Action by and The Philosophical Dicsouse On Modernity both by Jürgen Habermas. – On a less abstract level, see Paul Watzlawick’s claim, that nobody can escape the fact, that every kind of communication has an emotional side to it (for example the quite frequently posed question: Is x** rather good for us, or is it more in our opponents interest? x** can be anything people look upon as being of that us-or-them nature (= lots & lots of subjects – at times more, other times less).
    Bottom line: That’s why free speech (and blogs like this one) are so important.

  11. Right now, whites are an openly hated and resented majority in our society, envied for their relative success and blamed for all the discrimination non-whites feel they suffer. When whites become a minority, will they enjoy the preferential treatment and immunity from criticism that non-whites now enjoy?

    Not that Kaleigh Rogers would dignify that question with a response, but it is a matter of great significance to many of us.

    • Replies: @Poirot
    , @mc23
  12. @Anonymous

    Which is why we need to have the white/”people of colour” bifurcation drilled into us, to synthesize a majority that isn’t white.

    Nice side effect of that strategy: Huge problems disappear by pure magic***!

    ***Black Magic – as produced in Silly-CON-Valley (Twitter, Google, YouTube…)

  13. Somsel says:

    To summarize her article…

    “Shut up.”

  14. FiveThirtyEight :

    CONSPIRACY THEORIES

    Fox News host Tucker Carlson aired a segment about the “great replacement theory.” “We’re still not sure exactly what it is,” Carlson claimed about the racist, white-supremacist conspiracy theory that the population of white Americans is being systematically and intentionally “replaced” by nonwhite immigrants and their children, something the suspected shooter espoused prior to the attack.

    Really? Did Carlson show these videos?

    Maria Hinojosa:

    Frankly, given the demographics in our country, that’s what we want to see over and over again, in these immigrant communities and Latino communities, people owning the power to vote.

    Well, so, I like to talk about Clarkston, Georgia like the future of America on steroids. This was a community that was essentially over ninety percent White and American born, you know, thirty years ago, and in the past couple of decades have been transformed from being majority White to being now a majority not White, and what does that mean for this particular community? It’s happening everywhere. It’s happening here in San Diego, it’s happening in Tennessee, it’s happening in Alabama, it’s happening everywhere.

    • Replies: @Inquiring Mind
  15. First she says, “Republicans believe that immigrants are being brought to the country for political gains.” And derides them for their delusional thinking.

    Later she says, “Our elected leaders remain out of step with the U.S. population as well.”

    “out of step”?

    So she is pissed off that immigrants aren’t getting the political gains they feel entitled to by virtue of their numbers.

  16. Anonymous[142] • Disclaimer says:
    @Thulean Friend

    Doubt it.

    When American blacks realise the true nature and character of subcon Indians, they will turn in them with great viciousness, as they unfailingly always do, when both ethnicities are forced to rub shoulders.

  17. @Thulean Friend

    I wouldn’t be surprised if the US had less racial strife 20 years from now than it does today.

    They’re working on fixing that.

    • Agree: Twinkie, HammerJack
    • Replies: @nebulafox
  18. Coemgen says:

    One way or another the end goal is: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainable_population

    I would trust population modeling before I would trust climate modeling.

    But, of course, no respectable thinker is publicly discussing this now.

  19. One of the big pieces of “narrative framing”, aka, lying, that Kaleigh Rogers, and others in the Lyin’ Press are doing is saying that those who are onto the Great Replacement theory believe it’s a conspiracy.

    It’s not a conspiracy. There are no secret meetings about it. That wouldn’t be necessary. It’s been open policy for 57 years! It’s just taken the majority of American that freaking long to realize what’s going on AND to get the courage to start speaking up about it.

    • Replies: @Bill
    , @Travis
  20. mousey says:

    take it from this immigrant, who has lived and worked in the U.S. for eight years and still can’t vote

    Kind of proving the point. Maybe she can’t believe how cynical the party she is supporting really is. She is just another vote to them but if she signals her bona fides, maybe she will be something more than that.

  21. MEH 0910 says:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tony_Blair#Immigration

    Immigration

    Non-European immigration rose significantly during the period from 1997, not least because of the government’s abolition of the primary purpose rule in June 1997.[123] This change made it easier for UK residents to bring foreign spouses into the country. The former government advisor Andrew Neather in the Evening Standard stated that the deliberate policy of ministers from late 2000 until early 2008 was to open up the UK to mass migration.[124][125] Neather later stated that his words had been twisted, saying: “The main goal was to allow in more migrant workers at a point when – hard as it is to imagine now – the booming economy was running up against skills shortages…. Somehow this has become distorted by excitable Right-wing newspaper columnists into being a “plot” to make Britain multicultural. There was no plot.”[126]

    [MORE]

    https://web.archive.org/web/20091202101114/http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23760073-dont-listen-to-the-whingers---london-needs-immigrants.do

    Don’t listen to the whingers – London needs immigrants
    Andrew Neather
    23.10.09

    Yesterday MPs Frank Field and Nicholas Soames called for a 75 per cent cut in immigration and accused the Government of “clamping down” on any debate.

    What’s missing is not only a sense of the benefits of immigration but also of where it came from.

    It didn’t just happen: the deliberate policy of ministers from late 2000 until at least February last year, when the Government introduced a points-based system, was to open up the UK to mass migration.

    Even now, most graduates with good English and a salary of £40,000 or the local equivalent abroad are more or less guaranteed enough points to settle here.

    The results in London, and especially for middle-class Londoners, have been highly positive. It’s not simply a question of foreign nannies, cleaners and gardeners – although frankly it’s hard to see how the capital could function without them.

    Their place certainly wouldn’t be taken by unemployed BNP voters from Barking or Burnley – fascist au pair, anyone? Immigrants are everywhere and in all sorts of jobs, many of them skilled.

    My family’s east European former nannies, for example, are model migrants, going on to be a social worker and an accountant. They have integrated into London society.

    But this wave of immigration has enriched us much more than that. A large part of London’s attraction is its cosmopolitan nature.

    It is so much more international now than, say, 15 years ago, and so much more heterogeneous than most of the provinces, that it’s pretty much unimaginable for us to go back either to the past or the sticks.

    Field and Soames complain about schools where English is not the first language for many pupils.

    But in my children’s south London primary school, the international influence is primarily the large numbers of (mostly middle-class) bilingual children, usually with one parent married to a Brit.

    My children have half- or wholly Spanish, Italian, Swiss, Austrian, Croatian, Bulgarian, Congolese, Chinese and Turkish classmates.

    London’s role as a magnet for immigration busted wide open the stale 1990s clichés about multiculturalism: it’s a question of genuine diversity now, not just tacking a few Afro-Caribbean and Bengali events on to a white British mainstream. It’s one of the reasons Paris now tends to look parochial to us.

    So why is it that ministers have been so very bad at communicating this? I wonder because I wrote the landmark speech given by then immigration minister Barbara Roche in September 2000, calling for a loosening of controls. It marked a major shift from the policy of previous governments: from 1971 onwards, only foreigners joining relatives already in the UK had been permitted to settle here.

    That speech was based largely on a report by the Performance and Innovation Unit, Tony Blair’s Cabinet Office think-tank.

    The PIU’s reports were legendarily tedious within Whitehall but their big immigration report was surrounded by an unusual air of both anticipation and secrecy.

    Drafts were handed out in summer 2000 only with extreme reluctance: there was a paranoia about it reaching the media.

    Eventually published in January 2001, the innocuously labelled “RDS Occasional Paper no. 67”, “Migration: an economic and social analysis” focused heavily on the labour market case.

    But the earlier drafts I saw also included a driving political purpose: that mass immigration was the way that the Government was going to make the UK truly multicultural.

    I remember coming away from some discussions with the clear sense that the policy was intended – even if this wasn’t its main purpose – to rub the Right’s nose in diversity and render their arguments out of date. That seemed to me to be a manoeuvre too far.

    • Replies: @MEH 0910
  22. J.Ross says:

    A person upset about Great Replacement would target immigrants, not ADOS. ADOS are getting replaced more visibly and viciously. PG didn’t understand any of the so-called “radicalization” which the ignorant elites still place at the heart of the whole process, he was just chanting slogans like a new cult member.

  23. Mike Tre says:

    Kaleigh Rogers is a typical daft bimbo who presents how she feels about a subject as fact instead of actually taking the time to find out what the facts are:

    https://lookaheadamerica.org/rogersresponse/

    538 is up there with snopes when it comes to honestly and legitimacy.

  24. BB753 says:
    @Thulean Friend

    Twenty years from now, one of the major social conflicts will be between trans-Americans and cisgendered Americans. At this rate, 10 percent of the population will be transgendered and a further 10 % gay. And I’m not even joking. Look at the zoomers. Remember: Millennials will run this country in 20 years.

  25. Waiting for 538 to publish “Don’t worry, Darkies will know their place, White People.”

  26. @Jenner Ickham Errican

    In the video of Mr. Biden, who is the guy with the wan “gay” smile and the moony gaze sitting next to him — Mayorkas? Someone else?

    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican
  27. BB753 says:

    This how gaslighting works:
    A. There’s no mass immigration, you conspiracy nut!
    B. There’s massive immigration but it’s good for everybody, you bigot!
    C. Thanks to massive immigration, we changed society so that bigots like you have no say. We fooled you, you racist idiot!

    • Agree: HammerJack, AceDeuce
  28. Nodwink says:

    This is the classic divide-and-conquer strategy that the British Empire perfected. If the USA not a nation-state, but rather the taxation base for a global empire, then it is perfectly logical to use this technique on the imperial core.

    The elites (of any ethnic background) must see race war as beneficial to their interests. The same thing with transgenderism – foment as much trouble as possible between groups and subgroups of the citizenry, while you and your mates loot the country.

  29. Pixo says:
    @Loyalty Over IQ Worship

    “ But I’ve been told a lot of HBD’ers don’t identify with White people anyway”

    Sure, they are high-IQ Asians, married to Asians, or just like them.

    The Dems hate both white kinship and race-blind IQ meritocracy. Their top goal is to admit as many low IQ Central Americas, Arabs, and Africans as possible.

    If you want to have purity test that excludes Charles Murray and Sailer, you aren’t helping.

  30. @Anonymous

    ” … Not being the majority is not the same as being the minority ….”

    In other news, a journalist has just declared that 1 plus 1 equals 3 because she says so.

    Ah, you are discounting knowledge of which only the Wokels are cognoscenti.

    “Minority” is a sacred sect that comes with special rights and privileges than can never accrue to Whites.

  31. And in news that should be news to few.

    12 Groups Behind Protest Of Musk’s Twitter Takeover Have Ties With Gates Foundation, Soros

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/12-groups-behind-protest-musks-twitter-takeover-have-ties-gates-foundation-soros

    Say what you will of Musk, it’s hard not to like him when you see who hates him.

  32. Anon7 says:

    The Great Replacement – what can we do about it?

    At this point, I’d say we should encourage the Coming Collapse of America and if possible speed it up. Few people will want to come to America the Shithole, when they can stay in their own shithole. Who will want welfare payments in worthless American dollars?

    When it’s all over, we can pick ourselves up and make something worthwhile here if we haven’t been demographically overwhelmed and replaced.

  33. Pixo says:
    @Thulean Friend

    “ By contrast, Hispanics and Asians seem to be mostly non-political and neutral.”

    SE Asians are very apolitical. NE Asian women are conformist leftists.

    South Asians are very political and anti-white. The migrants themselves are not interested in US politics and have views that are often right wing, but US-born South Asians generally despise white Americans like no other group and get involved in anti-white activism at a high rate.

    Canada had a lot higher share of South Asians than the USA, and you can see the trend more clearly there, where anti-white politics is heavily South Asian. For example:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jagmeet_Singh

  34. Arclight says:

    These articles always cite the % of white CEOs, Congresscritters, etc. which is just yelling “squirrel” at the reader. The ratios of those things don’t really affect ordinary people too much, what does matter is the composition of your city, neighborhood, schools, local politicians, school boards, etc. The competing interests/behavior at a local level are what affect your quality of life the most.

    The demographics of my city have changed a lot in the last 30 years, and the white share of the population has declined by 1/3. Along with that so have the politics, and although our council is not as deranged as many in cities of comparable size, it still has thrown loads of money at violence interrupters, BS non-profits, and painting Black Lives Matter on a major street, not to mention the school system has gone all in on BLM/1619 while whites make up maybe half of their proportion of the city because parents have all fled to private schools.

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman
  35. “U.S. Census Bureau published a population projection that by the year 2044, non-Hispanic white Americans would no longer be a numerical majority in the country.”

    From the current year (2022), 2044 is as far in the future as 2000 is in the past. Does 2000 feel like long ago?

    • Replies: @EddieSpaghetti
  36. Australian Aboriginals also were concerned about the Great Replacement Dreamtime, out of a mistaken belief that the white fellas would not be Aboriginal themselves.

  37. OK, nobody seemed to believe me last time when I wrote this, but I’ll try again. It’s not just about the votes. If it were just about the D-votes, then “Conservatives” could feel consoled by those Hispanic Trump voters in south Texas and try harder in “reaching out” to the “naturally conservative” minorities.

    That’s another fallacy that seems to be going along with the Great Replacement Theory Policy. Of course the D’s love the votes. However, what the elites really want (and it’s no conspiracy, just fact) is to rule over a bunch of compliant peons.

    White America, from the ancestry of the British Isles, had a long, long history of belief in Liberty, due process, and limited government, going back to the Magna Carta. Over a century, many of the other White immigrants finally assimilated to these ideas (to a degree, at least). Now, the idea has been since 1965 to import people who have no such history and background. The Globalist elites are all jealous of the elites of Latin America, China, etc, with populations that have no such ideas such as a John Birch Society, a Reform Party (going back nearly 30 years here), the Tea Party, MAGA, etc.

    Compliant, 3rd-Worldy peons, even the bright H-1B visa holders, THAT’S what they want. It’s not just the votes, but it’s the mentality they are after.

    • Agree: Spud Boy, Mr. Anon, mc23, fish
    • Thanks: Coemgen
    • Replies: @Corn
    , @Moses
    , @Dmon
    , @Spud Boy
    , @Travis
  38. Bill says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    A conspiracy is a plan to do something illicit or immoral. So, it is a conspiracy. It’s not a secret conspiracy.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  39. AKAHorace says:
    @Anonymous

    Which is why we need to have the white/”people of colour” bifurcation drilled into us, to synthesize a majority that isn’t white.

    A lot of diversity training is the process of teaching non whites that they are all BIPOC or people of colour and so a single group that should unite against whites. This is not how Latinos or Asians usually see themselves in their own countries.

  40. Corn says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    You’re absolutely right. I can’t find it now but back in the mid ‘00s I read a paper online published by the Center for Immigration Studies. The author noted the corrosive effects of immigration on the US and noted that American politicians sometimes go on diplomatic trips or trade missions to Mexico, and possibly elsewhere in Latin America. Some of these politicians have been heard telling their hosts they enjoy the perks and deference they see the local politicians and officials getting.

    Our society is not infallible of course (slavery, etc.) but for most of our history we’ve had a white majority that held an Anglo-Saxon view: the yeomanry/smallholders are sovereign, the politicians are our chosen servants. Our Beltway class would love very much for our society to have a patron-client dynamic, with they themselves as the patrons.

    Our midwit useful idiots (Nation of immigrants! Diversity is our strength!) are carrying the water of neofeudalists.

    • Thanks: Bill Jones
    • Replies: @mc23
    , @JohnnyWalker123
  41. To even engage with these incorrect assumptions feels a bit like legitimizing their baseless premise, but when about a third of Americans believe a conspiracy theory based on misleading presumptions, there’s value in carefully deconstructing the false narrative.

    Language matters.

    The assumptions are “incorrect, baseless, misleading, and false” and actually amount to a “conspiracy theory,” so no respectable person should believe in them. It’s like “false” claims of election fraud. They’re false because I inserted the word “false” into the Wikipedia entry.

    Of course, she backed up her claim that demographic replacement is “false” and a “conspiracy theory” by informing us that “not being in the majority is not the same as being a minority.” Brilliant!

  42. Moses says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Compliant, 3rd-Worldy peons, even the bright H-1B visa holders, THAT’S what they want. It’s not just the votes, but it’s the mentality they are after.

    Yes. I think so too. Being elite in a 3rd world country is a pretty good life. And the votes ensure they stay on top forever.

  43. @Thulean Friend

    Your co-ethnics, South Asians, is probably the most disproportionately represented ethnic group in politics in the US:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Indian_Americans#Politics

    Much more impressive compared to this list, which includes of all things, a Chinese Jew convicted of bribery,

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese_Americans#Politics_and_government

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_Jew

    Good for you and I have nothing against my loquacious brown bros. But its probably better for South and East Asians to have separate groupings.

  44. anonymous[357] • Disclaimer says:

    OFF TOPIC:

    For African Americans tired of U.S. hostility, Ghana is still calling

    By [iSteve content generatrix] Karen Attiah

    Accra, Ghana — In 1961, 93-year-old Black scholar and historian W.E.B. Du Bois moved to Ghana, and soon after he was granted Ghanaian citizenship. He had endured Jim Crow racism, FBI surveillance and the confiscation of his passport by the United States, and decided it was enough. He handed White America a scathing resignation notice, in the form of a poem, “Ghana Calls,” which in part reads:

    [MORE]

    “From reeking West whose day is done,
    Who stink and stagger in their dung
    Toward Africa…
    Come with us, dark America:
    The scum of Europe battened here
    And drowned a dream
    Made fetid swamp a refuge seem …”

    Nearly 60 years after Du Bois’s death, America is still trying to perfume itself to the world as a haven of freedom and progress. But the past weekend has been a reminder that America is all too content to tolerate the stench of Black death.

    On Saturday, a White 18-year-old allegedly traveled 200 miles to Buffalo with a genocidal mission to kill as many Black people as he could. Donning body armor and armed with an assault weapon, he managed to slaughter 10 people, all of them Black, before he was taken alive by police. His chilling manifesto made explicit references to the great replacement theory and anxieties about immigrants, Jews and nonwhites taking power from Whites.
    Two days after the Buffalo massacre, I went to Du Bois’s house, which is now a museum. The full text of “Ghana Calls” is painted on a small portion of a hallway. There, I pondered what Black asylum from white supremacy truly looks like.

    It’s hard to find refuge in the political back and forth over the massacre, and over who is responsible for mainstream racism in general. Since the shooting, much liberal commentary has been devoted to blaming Fox News, Tucker Carlson and other race-baiting GOP apparatchiks for promoting racism and the great replacement theory.

    But when it comes to white supremacy, White liberals have long held on to dangerously naive replacement theories of their own — that increasing populations of nonwhites will automatically dent anti-Blackness, for instance, and that younger generations are automatically less racist than their forebears. If President Biden’s reactions are anything to go by, the temptation is to believe that the salve for America’s racist spasms is a good ol’ dose of national unity. This liberal complacency puts us all at risk.

    With these domestic options, it’s no wonder that in the past several years, there are more stories of Black people yearning for elsewhere. The rise of social media communities such as Nomadness Travel Tribe, Travel Noire and Blaxit Global are a testament to a growing awareness that Black people don’t have to feel trapped in America. “I don’t have to freeze and worry for my life every time I see a police officer,” a Ghanaian American friend who moved back told me in Accra.

    There is an American exceptionalist idea that the country is so great that Black people should be willing to endure its ills. We hear all the time “stay and fight” from elected leaders, who do little with their power to protect Black people when we vote for them. Josephine Baker, James Baldwin, Richard Wright, Maya Angelou and Nina Simone all left America for Europe and Africa to feel mentally and spiritually free from White America’s psychic violence. Sometimes, leaving is the most powerful form of resistance.

    For the past several years, Ghana has been trying to capitalize off the desire of African Americans to return to Ghana and escape their country’s brutalities. “You do not have to stay where you are not wanted forever,” said Ghana’s tourism minister, Barbara Oteng Gyasi, in 2020, at a ceremony in Accra marking George Floyd’s murder. “You have a choice, and Africa is waiting for you.” Ghanaian President Nana Akufo-Addo’s “Year of Return” initiatives have attracted celebrities and social media influencers. In 2019, he gave Ghanaian citizenship to 126 foreign nationals who had been living in the country for many years. Chance the Rapper has tweeted that he wants to take a group with him to Ghana this summer. Stevie Wonder has plans to relocate to Ghana. According to reports, about 5,000 African Americans have relocated to Ghana since 2020.

    As open racism becomes more mainstream in major Western countries, will “Blaxit” become a bigger movement? It’s … complicated. The feeling of having to leave home for a better life comes with grief, guilt and moving costs. Cultural differences, and ignorance on both sides about African and African American history and culture, are not easy to overcome. Black people from the Americas will be confronted with the ugly truth that Africans participated in selling captured Africans to the Europeans. And immigration brings a fear of increased gentrification, and that investment and tourism dollars will not benefit average Ghanaians.

    Still, the truth remains that Black people in the diaspora no longer have to be chained to countries that jail them, kill them and subject them to horrific hate crimes. To borrow from Maya Angelou, God gave us traveling shoes, and if Black people choose to use them, so be it.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  45. Travis says:

    One important finding from the 2020 census is the fact that America’s under-age-18 white population declined by 5 million since 2010. While the total number of whites declined ~8 million , the number of whites over the age of 60 actually increased while the number of whites under the age of 40 decreased by 10 million. So while the total number of whites declined by 8 million the the number of whites under the age of 40 declined by over 10 million as the non-white population under 40 increased.


    The most important graph for America. The number of whites under the age of 40 is declining rapidly.. Whites over the age of 40 are no longer fertile and have almost no influence over our culture and future.

    [MORE]

    The future of white America depends on the 40 million straight white males under the age of 40. They are being attacked, maligned and blamed for all the problems of America. Discriminated against in our schools, institutions and businesses. Straight White males and their allies (married white females) are a minority in America today. In a population of 331 million, only 90 million white males left. Maybe 80 million straight white males, ~50 million christian white males with families left in America, so along with their wives they represent just 33% of the US population. We are a minority…the coalition of the fringes includes most of the feminists, non-Christians, non-whites. This is why the Democrats have a lock on the presidency, with their coalition of the woke and the non-whites they are over 60% of the current US population.

  46. Poirot says:
    @Harry Baldwin

    Steve’s written about this before. See: https://www.takimag.com/article/the_ultimate_minority_right_steve_sailer/
    “You might think that when the old majority becomes a minority, it would then get minority rights. But that’s not how it works.”€

  47. nebulafox says:
    @Almost Missouri

    I am convinced that part of the motive behind everything from dystopian immigration policy to DIE policies mixed with economic precariousness to encouraging general social rot is to ensure that 50 years down the road, we don’t end up with a revived “castizo” version of the Cold War era American Majority that these people so hated when young and successfully destroyed when old. Since when has irresponsibility and an indifference to the fate of others stopped them before? Luckily for them, their globalist buddies also really don’t want that.

    But you know what happens to those that the gods wish to truly punish for their hubris? Through their own actions, the very thing they frantically try to avoid comes about.

    That’s all Zukunftsmusik, of course. It’s pointless to talk about this unless the inflow is stopped and the respite bought: especially across the now tacitly open southern border. And it is pointless to talk about that without power. But don’t underestimate how much our political and bureaucratic classes have managed to shift the Overton Window for Americans in just the last few years. Every visible sign of indifference or even contempt for the welfare of American citizens helps dig the hole that little bit deeper, and they show no signs of stopping.

  48. Dmon says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    This, exactly. I have worked with a number of 1st generation Vietnamese. They are all staunch Republicans, but they are not and never will be Americans. They have no concept of people cooperating to govern themselves, and the idea that there are aspects of life which are beyond the purview of government is totally foreign to them. On a number of occasions, we have discussed issues of major importance to their and their children’s well-being, and their outlook is always some variation of “That’s for the government to deal with. We’re just little people”. They view government as something existing on its’ own plane, periodically rearranging the obstacle course of life and requiring them to continuously come up with new workarounds and avoidance techniques. They express extreme anti-communism, but their world view does not question the idea of all-powerful government, they just think it should tax them less and their enemies more. Outside of the Anglosphere, this is the history of humanity more or less everywhere and any time. Unfortunately, decades of non-stop propaganda from kindergarten on have imbued most natives, particularly the younger ones, with the same attitude.

    • Thanks: JohnnyWalker123
  49. (take it from this immigrant, who has lived and worked in the U.S. for eight years and still can’t vote).

    I smell tedious, hectoring, Canadian good-thinker.

    • Replies: @kaganovitch
    , @bigdicknick
  50. Spud Boy says:

    For proof that the “great replacement” isn’t a theory but rather a fact look no further than California, where a Republican can’t be elected dog catcher anymore.

    • Agree: Farenheit
  51. @Hangnail Hans

    Minoritarian Media Goon:

    You people are done! You won’t be a majority much longer. Immigration is bringing in new people. A new America is dawning with a minority majority! You are finished goy whitey!

    Noticing Normie:

    Hey, these people are trying to replace white people. Suppress our fertility and replace us with foreigners, who vote as they like, taking away our self-government.

    Minoritarian Media Goon:

    “Stop peddling your neo-Nazi Great Replacement Conspiracy theories.”

  52. Spud Boy says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    “It’s not just the votes, but it’s the mentality they are after.”

    I agree. People coming here from shit holes are easier to govern. They’re not going to complain about much of anything, no matter how bad Democratic party policies destroy whatever they control.

  53. Mr. Anon says:

    From her LinkedIn page:

    “I write about the intersection of politics and technology, including online extremism, the role of social media, and voting infrastructure.”

    Another “intersectionist”, who I’m sure is “based in New York”.

    Her job description could be reduced to “Propagandist for the neo-liberal globalist New World Order”.

    She is a bug-woman.

  54. Stogumber says:

    “t’s clear what’s really supporting this narrative: racism and fear. ”
    I remember times when it was the normal expectation that you yourself must do something in order to gain trust and to overcome fear. Nowadays. the left has turned those matter-of-fact emotions into moral standpoints: we are morally obliged to trust our elites (no matter how fishy their behaviour is) and we are obliged not to fear our elites (no matter how many good reasons there are).

  55. Mr. Anon says:

    To even engage with these incorrect assumptions feels a bit like legitimizing their baseless premise, but when about a third of Americans believe a conspiracy theory based on misleading presumptions, there’s value in carefully deconstructing the false narrative. And when the toothpick scaffolding that holds up the theory is exposed, it’s clear what’s really supporting this narrative: racism and fear.

    The gas-lighting has officially reached the Joey Bishop phase.

  56. @Hypnotoad666

    I was thinking of allowing only Afrikaners for a while until the murder spree against them in South Africa ends (due to them all having left there). They are White, conservative, and Christians, by and large. Intelligent people with a good work ethic. Seems like a win-win.

  57. J1234 says:

    That’s to say nothing of the fact that not all immigrants are naturalized and able to vote (take it from this immigrant, who has lived and worked in the U.S. for eight years and still can’t vote).

    Don’t worry, all of those immigrants with dual citizenship who can vote in the US more than make up for your inability to do so. Being able to vote with dual citizenship is like having access to both your ex-wife’s and current wife’s bank accounts.

    It’s my understanding that the Supreme Court ruling in Kawakita vs. United States informs current legal thought on dual citizenship and voting (I’m not a lawyer, so if I’m wrong about that, let me know.) If that’s the case, it should be overturned. Dual citizenship isn’t what the case was essentially about. It was about the US government having the authority to punish a defacto ex-patriot for treason.

  58. From 538:

    Note the number. Why not 535? Or, more democratically, 435?

    Jessica Hagy gets to the core of it, at least for the idealistic crowd. The cynics (i.e., Democrats) are another creature entirely.

  59. @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY)

    Mark Spahn wrote:

    “Does 2000 feel like long ago?”

    Not to me. Time flies faster as you get older, that rule is in all the physics books. However, 1963, the year the greatest pitcher in MLB history, Buffalo, NY native Warren Spahn, went 23-7 at age 42, does seem like a long time ago. Spahn won 363 games and was a 20 game winner 13 times despite missing 3 years due to his military service. Indeed, Casey Stengel referred to Spahn as a war hero. Awesome work Warren Spahn!

  60. mc23 says:
    @Corn

    The Beltway class types see themselves as modern Conquistador Class destined to rule over a politically inert servant class. One way to do that is to import lots of lower class people from Conquistador societies.

    They may have fouled up with the South Asians. Importing a new elite is useful for the current ruling class for a time but the results are unpredictable down the road.

  61. anonymous[246] • Disclaimer says:

    How about if the border crossers agree to an exchange, where they get US citizenship with voting rights, but for the first 8 years, they physically couldn’t vote for a Democrat or DNC group. If they tried, the vote would just flip to whoever is running against them, all controlled by gov’t computer.

    • Replies: @epebble
  62. @anonymous

    Sometimes, leaving is the most powerful form of resistance.

    Preach it, Brotha!

    Next BLM riot, remember, there are thousands of pairs of traveling shoes at The Gap. The Gap, remember, 2112 Wilshire Blvd. The window glass is the easiest you’ve ever seen too!

  63. gregor says:

    The ethnic composition of the country is far more important than two-party politics. Saying it’s a scheme to boost Democrats rather than a scheme to ensure racial decline of whites is actually soft-pedaling the matter. It’s rather backwards as there’s no reason we should care about the GOP per se. A political party is an instrument to further political interests and it only has value to the extent it’s able to do that.

    • Thanks: HammerJack
    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
  64. Anonymous[206] • Disclaimer says:
    @Pixo

    The thing is, neither Steve Sailer nor Charles Murray want to be included with you or any of us.

    It’s not really a purity spiral, it’s the fact that they have a lack passion for the plight of white people.

  65. epebble says:
    @Thulean Friend

    Your hunch may appear correct; but 20 years from now, the strife will be more economic than racial. In this, the strife on the left of Bell Curve will be competition faced by African Americans and less skilled Whites for lower skill jobs from Hispanics. While on the other side, higher skilled Whites will not like the competition from Asians for high income and prestige opportunities.

  66. @Pixo

    Charles Murray has said the worst thing he can imagine is White people being on their own side, advocating for their own interests. That sounds like an anti-White purity test.

  67. @Corn

    This is the paper that you’re thinking about.

    https://cis.org/Report/Immigration-and-Usurpation

    • Thanks: Corn
  68. @Hangnail Hans

    A terminally stupid white woman. Whiskey,call your office!

  69. epebble says:
    @anonymous

    If your “border crossers” is an illegal immigrant, your “exchange” seems to equate U.S. Citizenship to a free roll of Charmin. If you mean a legal immigrant, they have to already wait 5 years before applying for Citizenship, with many waiting longer (some much longer, as in, never). So, the additional 3 years is largely meaningless.

  70. AceDeuce says:
    @MEH 0910

    Bertolt Brecht from 1953:

    Some party hack decreed that the people
    had lost the government’s confidence
    and could only regain it with redoubled effort.

    If that is the case, would it not be simpler,
    If the government simply dissolved the people
    And elected another?

  71. Larz says:
    @Thulean Friend

    A future demo that doesn’t get talked about much is, mixed race/culture children. People who can’t easily fit into today’s culture war tropes.

  72. Roger says: • Website

    assumption that immigrants will solely support the Democratic party.

    No one assumes that. Blacks do not solely support the Democrat Party. Just 90% of them. The assumption is that immigrants will be mostly Democrat.

    47 percent of Republicans agreed with the statement that “there is a group of people in this country who are trying to replace native-born Americans with immigrants who agree with their political views.”

    Another straw man. Jews are overwhelmingly Democrat and pro-immigrant, and the immigrants are overwhelmingly Democrat, but I would not say that Jews seek immigrants who politically agree with Jews. Jewish motives are somewhat different.

  73. @AnotherDad

    I smell tedious, hectoring, Canadian good-thinker.

    Spot on. She used to write for the Toronto Globe and Mail.

  74. @Hangnail Hans

    Gotta love her logic. Over and over, her argument reduces to: “Since the wreckage isn’t yet complete, it can’t possibly be in progress.”

    Exactly. What are you whining about frog? The water isn’t even boiling yet.

  75. ic1000 says:

    Kayleigh Rogers is that rare Establishment journalist who doesn’t secretly mine iSteve for ideas. At least, not the comments.

    Our elected leaders remain out of step with the U.S. population as well. While the current Congress is the most racially diverse we’ve had, it’s still whiter than the general population. People who identify as non-Hispanic white made up 61.6 percent of the U.S. population in 2020, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, but accounted for 77 percent of the voting members in Congress.

    Comment #257 on a Sailer essay from last November, replying to Reg Caesar:

    By the way, notwithstanding my negativity concerning the open anti-Semitism that rears its head at times in iSteve comments, [Matthew] Yglesias went there by making this assertion in his Substack piece:

    At the end of the day, the electorate is roughly 70% white, and white people are overrepresented above and beyond that in Congress.

    So I will hold my nose and follow his lead.

    At the end of the day, the electorate is 67% Non-Hispanic White Gentile, and Non-Hispanic White Gentiles account for 375 of 535 seats in Congress (375/535 = 70% or 0.04-fold overrepresentation).

    At the end of the day, the electorate is 1.9% Jewish, and Jews account for 37 of 535 seats in Congress (37/535 = 6.9% or 2.63-fold overrepresentation).

    .
    Arithmetic: Pew says 77% of seats (412) are held by Non-Hispanic Whites, who comprise 69% of registered voters. The Jerusalem Post says 37 seats are held by Jews.

    Yes, out-of-step. But not in a way that Kayleigh cares to discuss.

  76. @Travis

    It is easy to replace people who were never born. The low fertility of whites makes it easy to replace us, since there are less and less whites being born each year

    the number of whites under the age of 40 has collapsed from 120 million to under 90 million in just 30 years time. Whites failed to reproduce thus we have been replaced. The future belongs to those who show up.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  77. Travis says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    There has been a conspiracy to import cheap alien labor going back at least 400 years. Back during colonial days a conspiracy of wealthy farmers, African tribes and the slave traders conspired to bring thousands of African slaves into America…..later the wealthy American industrialists conspired with our politicians to bring in low cost laborers to build our railroads cheaply and then to work in our mines and factories at slave wages. Since the 1960s our politicians have conspired to expand immigration and grant amnesty to illegal aliens and expand legal immigration while encouraging illegal immigration to keep wages lower. In 1965 the conspirators lied about the changes to our immigration laws and deceived the public with help from the media to spread the deception about the 1965 Immigration act.

    The conspirators helped pass the Amnesty act in 19886. They passed the immigration act of 1990 which was a conspiracy to increase legal immigration by 100% while increasing Asian immigration by 1,000% and increasing African immigration by 5,000% via the diversity visa program. These conspiracies were done behind close doors, but we can observe the results of the conspiracy by looking at the congressional record to see which senators voted to enact legislation to replace Americans with foreign labor. It is clear that big tech firms actively conspired with our legislature and the media to increase legal immigration along with the GOP to help businesses attract low cost labor and maintain higher profit margins.

  78. Travis says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    True, it is not just about the votes….The conspiracy has several groups participating. The business groups which demand more cheap labor, the Democrats who seek more power and the anti-white coalition which wants to ethnically cleanse Whites from America for the reasons you mentioned. The elites fear whites because whites are the only group with the potential to fight against their agenda. they have conspired with the Democrats and Republicans. The GOP wants cheap labor, the Democrats want more political power, the elites want to ethnically cleanse white Christians from America.

    it will be interesting to observe how the anti-white coalition evolves as whites fall below 40% of the US population by the year 2050. Hatred and envy of white Christians is the only agenda holding the coalition together. It is their common enemy. But i suppose they can keep hating on whites until we are less than 5% of the population, by which time most Hispanic whites will be counted as white so they will never run out of whites to target.

  79. xxxeliss says:
    @Thulean Friend

    asian women have a very low tfr (1.2 for american born asians ) , also about a third of children born to asian women have non asian( mostly white) fathers , without immigration the asian popualtion will decline .

  80. Anonymous[206] • Disclaimer says:
    @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    Whites failed to reproduce thus we have been replaced.

    We don’t need to be in a side-by-side breeding contest with other races. The Japanese have a low fertility rate but Japan remains 99% Japanese.

    These things work themselves out naturally if there’s no invasion going on.

    The issue was forced integration combined with mass Third World immigration targeted only at our countries.

    • Thanks: Hangnail Hans
    • Replies: @Travis
  81. @AnotherDad

    canadians are generally good thinkers because their only exposure to blacks is via the fake news media or academia.

  82. @Bill

    Fair enough, Bill. However, I don’t think that much of it is even planned, per se, meaning actual discussion of “we need more low IQ people” and “we want the White Middle class down to this level by ’25”, etc.

    Travis brings up good points on things that are indeed discussed, such as open borders for the sake of the big farmers, the whole F.I.R.E. “industry” that benefits from more people of any kind, the H-1B influx to help the software industry get cheaper labor, the turning of Virginia into a “blue State”, etc.

    Yes, those are concrete plans, so a conspiracy, as you say, between Big Biz, the left, and the hundreds or thousands of traitors in the high places in the US Feral Gov’t. As for the wiping out of the Middle Class (especially White people), it’s more just what all these elites naturally feel and want. It feels good to them when they don’t hear any more of that organized political dissent from the (actual) grass roots or small businesses thriving. (The COVID PanicFest was great in it’s destruction of small businesses of the service industry.)

    They’re all pretty on board with the idea of “you’ll own nothing and be happy”, with an exception for themselves, as the anointed ones.

  83. Travis says:
    @Anonymous

    if fertility remains this low we will see the extinction of whites in North America. Japan is an Island and never had significant immigration into their nation. In Contrast the United States has had significant non-white immigration for 400 years. Even if Immigration into the United was reduced to zero over the next decade the white race will continue to decline, even if fertility increased back to 1.8 as 10% of whites are mating with non-whites thus 10% of the children of whites are non-white….so White fertility would need to be higher than 2.9 to maintain the current white population

    Today we have 23 million fertile white females between the ages of 20-40. They have a fertility rate of 1.6, but 10% of their children are non-white we have an effective white fertility of 1.45. The current fertile white population of ~50 million whites between 20-40 will birth just 32 million white children….

    By decade the number of whites being born each decade is declining
    2001-2010 – 23 million whites born
    2011-2020 – 20 million whites born
    2021-2030 – 18 million whites born
    2031-2040- 15 million whites born
    2041-2050 – 12 million whites born

    While Japans population is declining by 900,000 per year. In The US the population is growing (only the white population is declining) In contrast to Japan we allow in 1.2 million non-white immigrants each year..So while the Japanese people can survive as their population shrinks, in the United States our population is growing, with just the white population shrinking each year. The White population will shrink below 100 million people in America before the Japanese population shrinks below 100 million in Japan.

  84. anonymous[204] • Disclaimer says:

    Looked her up- Kaleigh Rogers is exactly how you’d think she’d look.
    Young, naive female repoterette with Crazy eyes and the aspiring cat lady look.
    Plus can you think of a whiter name than “Kaleigh”? I imagine she had a sheltered upper-middle class upbring in the ‘burbs. I doubt she’s ever lived in an area populated primarily with gen-u-ine, keepin’-it-real American blacks or mestizo chulo squatters, but she glibly thinks flooding the whole country with them wouldn’t matter one bit.

    As for “Asians” there are two types.

    The East Asian variety with high spacial IQs (cue the Chinese math nerd stereotype) who make second-rate politicians who laughably regurgitate Woke talking points like Mazzie Hirono (HI) or Ted Lieu (CA) (have you listened to either of these 2 lightweights talk?).
    Not to be confused with the verbally slick SOUTH Asians who really put their hearts and souls into anti-white, anti-Western leftist politics like that Hideous Hindu from WA state Priiyal Jamipal and “canadian” import Jeet Heer.
    East Asians lean democratic but south Asians bloc vote for the dems at a rate higher than any other group, save American blacks. They’re more leftwing than Askenazis, another verbally adept, traditionally insular group.

    • Agree: BB753

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