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The United Nations’ Population Division has posted its World Population Prospects 2022, the first in three years.
So I created the latest version of my World’s Most Important Graph comparing sub-Saharan Africa’s expected population to Europe’s.
The web page is marked “Embargoed until 11 Jul 2022.” If you send me something under embargo until a particular release date so I can get ready ahead of time, I always respect your request. However, if you don’t ask me personally and just post on an open website ahead of your planned release date, I don’t feel obligated to wait.
As we’ve discussed many times, it’s hard to predict the future, so it’s unlikely for these projections to turn out exactly right. The projections themselves bounce around, rising in the 2000s as the UN discovered that the current population of Africa was higher than it thought, and then easing off lately.
Not a big downward revision in population by the UN's projections for SubSaharan Africa 28 years from now: from 2.12 billion to 2.09 billion.
— Steve Sailer (@Steve_Sailer) July 9, 2022
The revision downward for 2050 was 1.1% since 2019. The downshift for distant 2100 was a more substantial 9.0%.
How accurate the latest release is, I couldn’t tell you. The last couple of years have been pretty slovenly for record-keeping in the developed world, so who know how accurate vital statistics have been since covid in sub-Saharan Africa?
The UN projections tend to expect current trends to continue onward without a major phase shift: e.g., no Malthusian famines, mass exoduses, religious revivals, wars, or unknown pandemics. That’s unlikely to happen, but it’s also hard to predict what exactly will change, and by how much.
The point is, of course, that this is a respectable source doing its best to estimate the future and the numbers it comes up with are eye-opening. In 1950, there were three Europeans for every sub-Saharan African. By 2005 the ratio was one to one. In 2022, there are 1.55 Africans for every European, and by 2050 there should be three Africans for every European. And out in the mists of 2100, the UN is projecting almost six sub-Saharans for each European.
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Africans are bad news, always. Even when they’re funny …
Not only are the projections absurd, but the current population estimates are inflated beyond all reason and are totally unbelievable. There is no way that Sub-Saharan Africa is currently supporting over 1 billion people. Supporting them how?
Look at places like China and India, with 1.4 and 1.2 billion people, respectively. China and India are at least participants in the developed world. They have modern economies and infrastructure. In the best places, the level of development to be found there is the equal of any place in the Western world. And yet each of these countries still has hundreds of millions of poor people who subsist on a few dollars per day.
Africa has none of the infrastructure, none of the development, none of the wealth that China and India have. If Sub-Saharan Africa tried to support 1 billion people, at least half of them would immediately starve to death.
The population of Africa, and therefore of the world, is much less than is currently being reported.
So the UN believes the best way to embargo information is to post it on the WWW? No wonder people do not want to give them any money.
Intelligent Dasein’s complete confidence in his own opinions is a sight to behold.
The situation is even more grim if one considers population growth in the Mahgreb and the Levant. On the other hand, migrants from those areas may have the political will to repel the waves of sub-Saharan Africans.
Intelligent Dasein’s skepticism about Africa’s population size is based not only in sheer stupidity and racism, but also his own lack of faith in himself.
… As someone with lifetime major depression, it’s unthinkable to him that black people could be thriving in the materially richest continent in the world, a vast expanse of living space that is incomprehensibly more capacious than any other continent on Earth, with wildlife comparable to what North America had 200 years ago.
When you consider that his central nervous system activity is 90% lesser than the average human, it’s a small miracle that Intelligent Dasein can summon the energy to post his diatribes on this website so frequently. You would think his HVAC would blow the last remnants of positive electrons out of his body, and we would never hear from him again.
A big standout to me is Pakistan. Their TFR in 2010 was 3.6 and was expected to decline. Instead it has increased to 2.7 in 2020. As a result, their population projections were upwardly revised from ~400m to nearly ~500m by year 2100.
Of course, fertility changes can happen very rapidly but given deep religiosity in Pakistan (many Arabs comment how Pakistani diaspora are much more fundamentalist than Arab moslem diaspora tend to be), I suspect the final number may be even higher come the day.
It doesn’t help that Pakistan is suffering a economic stagnation, which decreases the economic capability of poorer parents to educate their kids (and thus bring down TFR).
Along with Nigeria, Pakistan is the other Big Country Hotspot that we should look at in the years to come.
Steve Sailer wrote:
Well… yeah.
But he does raise a serious question: there are huge cities in sub-Saharan Africa and other parts of the Third World. Where does their food come from? Does the Bush produce enough surplus to feed the cities? And what do the cities produce to exchange with the Bush?
I have tried to look into this but have not been able to find any concrete answers.
Anyone know?
And the Bantu expansion rolls on. Who’s to say they won’t take over the whole planet? We like to think that intelligent life is the apex of evolution, but the fact is that in the half billion years that large animals have been around they’ve evolved in a dizzying variety of weird and wonderful directions and yet intelligence has only evolved once. So maybe intelligence isn’t as adaptive as we like to think.
When the US/UN aid runs out, what happens next in Africa will be the most horrific event of mass starvation and disease in human existence.
They live in a paradise with six or seven growing seasons plus abundant natural food.
Looks like we will have an Indian Subcontinental as our Prime Minister soon, our embittered appendage Eire has already had one in the form of Leo Vardaukar, no relation at all to the Imperial Sardaukar.
I personally welcome our new Indian overlords and look forward to toiling in their curry mines!
Dolphins, cuttlefish, crows?
“The last couple of years have been pretty slovenly for record-keeping in the developed world, so who know how accurate vital statistics have been since covid in sub-Saharan Africa”
And how do you know this for certain?
I didn’t have time early this morning to write a long and detailed post on this subject, so I had to settle for a few bald assertions. That’s why what I wrote seems a little brazen. But yes, I am confident in the overall point.
There are a lot of numbers out there that just don’t make sense. For instance, global oil consumption has remained fairly steady since about the year 2000, but we’ve supposedly added 1.5 billion people to the global population since then. That simply isn’t possible. One of these numbers has to be wrong, and global oil consumption is pretty transparent—a lot more transparent than African census figures.
I’m not sure people understand that the UN does not take a census of its own. It relies on local African governments to provide it with demographic information. With that being said, it’s not unreasonable to ask a few questions.
1. Have local African governments established a good track record of competence and reliability? No.
2. Do local African governments have the money, the will, and the apparatus to physically go out into the bush and count rural African populations? No.
3. Do local African governments have an incentive to inflate their reported population figures? Yes, they can attract more aid and investment that way.
4. Does the UN have an incentive to believe, or at least look the other way when it receives, these inflated census figures? Yes, because “overpopulation” plays directly into many of Globohomo’s preferred narrative structures such as climate change, the need for global wealth redistribution, and the inevitability of mass immigration.
When you put this all together, it seems reasonable to believe that reported African population numbers are not accurate. We have actually seen just this very process play out in full view when, in 2006, the City of Lagos effectively decided to double its population by fiat:
If this can happen in Lagos, which is probably the most developed and sophisticated city of which Sub-Saharan blacks can boast, then what is going on in Mozambique, Cameroon, and Chad?
And for the record, when most governments, international bodies, news media organizations, and a certain Mr. Steve Sailer were all in favor of ending normalcy over Covid-19, I made a series of predictions about the course of the pandemic, the deadliness of the disease, the inefficacy of lockdowns and social distancing, and the horrible mRNA shots, all of which were later proven correct. When all of these same entities, along with a certain Mr. Steve Sailer, said that Ukraine was “Russia’s ass,” I said that Russia would win this war handily and that it was but Step 1 of a 100 step plan that would eventually result in Russia becoming the hegemon over all of Europe, an opinion that was just more or less validated by Putin himself.
I have a heck of a lot more right to be confident in my opinions than Sailer does. The truly astonishing thing is why anyone still listens to Sailer.
Yup. I was shocked when Audacious Epigone published one of ID’s rambling rants on his blog.
This is the solution to the Fermi Paradox.
Fermi paradox is the question, posed by Enrico Fermi at lunch one day: The universe is billions of years old. There are billions and billions of stars in the galaxy. There’s been plenty of time and space for countless star-faring civilizations to have arisen and colonized the galaxy. “Where IS everybody?”
Many of the proposed solutions involve something called a “Great Filter”: the idea that at some point, something causes development to stop and reverse. Maybe the Great Filter “gets you” early on. Maybe, the development of eukaryotic life is difficult; or maybe intelligence only occurs rarely; etc.. Which would be great! Would mean that the Great Filter is behind us, Homo Sapiens passed it, we’re the first, and we’ll go on to fill the galaxy with our descendants.
But the scarier possibility is, the Great Filter is still to come, and it’s gonna “get” us, too. If so, it must be coming soon, because we’re on the verge of expanding into space, ourselves.
So, most all the proposed Great Filters still to come put out there by scientists blinded to HBD by political commitment to egalitarianism, such as Carl Sagan and Neil Armstrong (“Once small step for man, one small step for mankind”), generally fit the category of, tech will kill us: The atomic bomb; the rise of artificial intelligence; mass transit causing spread of some horrific virus, whatever.
NOPE. The answer to the Fermi Paradox is dysgenics. It works this way: As soon as the superior race of an intelligent species creates the rockets to escape its planet’s gravity well and stands on another world, that gobsmackingly profound achievement gives that race such a sense of God-like power, that the seeds for its own destruction are sown.
Once its first high of self-congratulation from walking on the moon wears off, that superior race then looks around to see what other previously unimaginable acts it can bring about.. And the thought inevitably is:
“I know! Let’s uplift the lesser races! We’re all the same, we all bleed the same, let’s stop hunger so no children need die!” etc., etc.
With the inevitable effect: The simplest of the races does the biological imperative of maximizing reproduction. And, being fed by the Ubermenschen, their numbers explode. Starvation soon returns but the superior race, feeling guilt, tries its level best to keep up with providing for the all the new billions and billions. Harder, and harder yet, they work to provide, more and more they invent ways to increase food production, provide clean water, decent housing, etc.. With only the inevitable consequence of yet ever more sad little faces holding out begging bowls clamoring for something to eat…
Sadly, in the end the Uber race, for all their whiz-bang tech, is NOT God. Eventually the burden of struggling to provide for all the billions of useless eaters so depletes the energies of that superior race that, instead of building starships, they, along with all the billions of dependent untermenschen, all sink back into the primordial ooze.
I suspect the answer is …
… from us, the white first world. For reasons that seem to have obscure roots in Kant’s categorical imperative, it wasn’t enough for the white first world to create welfare states within their own national borders, they (we) also had to create a welfare continent in Africa.
Historically, most Africans lived on various forms of subsistence agriculture. The thing about subsistence agriculture is, as the name suggests, you can subsist on it, so long as there is sufficient land. And Africa has sufficient land, and appears that it will have sufficient for a long time to come.
But according to Official Sources, sub-Saharan Africa’s population is now about half urban, or to put it another way: onto the already growing and spreading subsistence population, there is now an additional “urban”* population of about the same size.
The new large cities of China are obviously very productive, and even the newly enlarged cities of India provide call centres and regional services, but no one outside an African city buys anything from an African city, so how are they supporting themselves? Well, you know all those first world aid programs, the cynical governmental ones and the Sally Struthers do-gooders alike? It is inefficient and expensive to fan out across Africa to spread all that aid around to every substance agriculturalist, so they just dump it by the boatload in the cities. The elites get straight cash, the middle class get patronage jobs, and the poor get food aid. The aid need not spread out to the countryside where people can already subsist just fine. The cities are essentially unintentional Western colonies, but not peopled with Westerners, only fed and subsidized with Western surplus value.
Ironically, it is not so different from the headline first world big cities. New York, London, Washington DC, et al. hardly produce anything anymore, they mostly live by extracting value parasitically from the productive parts of the country or the world. They are just at the high end, while Africa is at the low end, but they both feed off the fat of the exploited middle. Less ironically, when the global parasite grift stops working for DC, it will also stop working for Lagos, so their fates are intertwined, a fact they do seem vaguely aware of.
———
*Perhaps mostly living in squalid shantytowns ringing urban cores, rather than anything that First Worlders would recognize as “urban”.
Here’s where we are*
https://www.theafricareport.com/123719/whats-behind-africas-skyrocketing-imports-yet-increased-production-growth/
Here’s the plan.
https://www.africaportal.org/features/africa-can-feed-itself-heres-how/
try not to laugh.
* No-one seemed to collect much data during the covid scam, I think they were all working on vaccines.
Africa exports are considerable: minerals, oil, migrant manpower, tropical products etc. as well as a massive foreign assistance. Africa can easily maintain its population growth for the next century. But it will not. In my youth, Africa’s problem was sterility, depopulation of entire areas due to sexual diseases, etc. The current population bomb is entirely based on foreign medical assistance.
I propose we LET THE CHINESE HAVE IT!
Even the Nigerian oil. Let them have the entire continent. No contest. Be my guest good sirs and that one token madam they have on the inner inner inner circle.
(As a corollary we could let them have the moon and Mars too. There is no way to make money there before the year 3535.)
The UNDP and World Bank country and regional reports are not a bad place to start. Development economists and economic planners often have pretty detailed input/output models and sectoral data, in every country, and report it to the UN (which often does the data collection.)
I won’t try to predict exactly how it will happen or when.
But I will insist (unless I live to see it) that 3.5 billion in sub-Saharan Africans is impossible. And so is a magnitude migration on the order of billions.
There will be a massive die off in Africa, any effects the rest of the world notwithstanding.
All I have got to say on the matter is this:
All that stands between the white world and utter demographic saturation – leading to an inevitable extinction – by the third world is the political class of the white world, as lousy and Economist-whipped as it is.
For they alone hold the monopoly of power – political, judicial, executive and military.
Let me state here for all you to read, I have exactly *ZERO* (0) faith in the white political class of the present or in any possible future to do anything at all to restrict the enormous immigration which will occur.
Of this I am certain.
An increase of -ve 0.9?
You can fit a lot of poor people into a small area.
It’s estimated that Ireland in the 1830’s before the potatoe famine supported a population of 8 million people. Sub-Sharan Africa is considerably more fertile than Ireland and covers an area over 400 times as large.
As my father would have said to my sainted mother , there’s not a lot of Roman Catholics in Africa but if the Irish could do it then… One billion is a low number .
Regardless of the accuracy of current measures, Africa’s population will not be growing because of the coming food shortages and energy problems…No country in Africa can feed itself now, and the problem will worsen rapidly as the WEF’s insane nitrogen restrictions, combined with the shortage of fertilizer, hit…In 100 years, Africa’s population will be much less than today, perhaps returning to historic levels of 20 million….
Steve’s reply is good.
Analysing the graph and its effects, even if the peak is a little lower would take several thousand words.
Having had a tiring day working on docs for advanced Japanese tech., anything like that will collapse if the African population explosion is allowed to go everywhere.
Since most of western Europe, except perhaps Denmark and Switzerland, and most of the U.S.A. and Canada are dedicated to self-destruction, if the morons in those places want to continue the process, let them. Too bad.
East Asian tourists already avoid most of western Europe unless in a large and protected group.
I think what the commenter is really getting at is that the world’s most important graph needs more granularity. It needs 3 lines:
* Europe
* Sub-Saharan Africa, other
* Elon Musk
https://nypost.com/2022/07/07/elon-musk-confirms-twins-with-neuralink-exec-shivon-zilis/
Sub-Saharan Africa doesn’t need to “support” anyone, when people want to live, and they need to find food and water, they find food and water.
Thus us only the most important graph in the world whimpy whites. It’s not an issue for China, Japan or, even, Israel, which is next door to Africa.
Steve “White Man’s Burden” Sailer may feel that it’s our responsibility to deal with a billion Africans, but I can assure you that other races do not, nor can Africans make it their problem. Protect your border, enforce immigration laws – or, better yet, don’t allow immigration – and that graph is an afterthought.
The WFP has had to cut its aid rations to South Sudan in half. They just don’t have the money and donors are having their own financial problems. Cooking oil has gotten very expensive as have grains. Cracking down on carbon emissions is essentially a tax on farmers and meat producers. Takes a lot fuel to make some grain into a loaf of bread or turn a cow into a lbs of hamburger in a suburban grocery
If you think this is just a temporary problem and that world trade will return to pre-covid levels and that drought is not a permanent condition in the American West, Brazil and Argentina then the WFP and NGO’s might be able to continue to support African populations for a few more years but there is just not going to be enough agricultural output to support an additional billion or two Sub Saharan Africans who cannot afford to pay for it.
Pakistan and Afghanistan both have high Tfrs, but they are the way they are because of fanatic and backward religiosity. Their inbreeding doesn’t help their iq, but even generations of inbreeding only takes one generation of outbreeding to fix. And by outbreeding, I mean someone who is not their first cousin.
There could be 1 billion pakis and afghans one day, and that would be a lot of smiting and stoning for the west to shake their heads at, but one billion Pakis are still one billion people which can be integrated into advanced civilization, even if they are not now. This can’t be said for one billion Bantus.
For how can one die better, than facing fearful odds…
presumably the numbers were calculated before anybody realized it was Russia and Ukraine feeding a large chunk of the third worlders. those calories might take a dip over the next year.
still on track for sheer madness later in the century though. young people alive today will be astounded by what’s happening in 2050 and will be living in a different world by then, with a lot less energy, and a LOT more africans everywhere all of a sudden.
think gas prices and violent crime are bad now? you ain’t seen nothing yet. the future sucks. the past was much better. imagine a world with 10 dollar gasoline, and a 1500 square foot house costs 2 million dollars in a average city (not a ‘good’ one with ‘good’ schools), and wages for the average guy are stalled at 50,000 a year, as you try to flee the endless third world hordes. EV prices are going UP, not down, so probably no escape there for very expensive energy in the future.
I can tell you one big problem that will throw everything in this projection into a cocked hat, so to speak.
Seemingly, everyone assumes that Africans will wait in Africa until 2100. However, I’m guessing that the sub-Saharan exodus will start this decade, and lots of those 9.8 children that African women want to have will be born right here in the US of A.
Oh, didn’t you know? African women only have about six children per woman, but if you ask them, they want ten. They just need more resources.
Project that.
human thought leaders need to start thinking more like biologists and geologists who study geological time periods on earth. the current human lifestyle situation is VERY tenuous and will necessarily end in 100 years or so. current thinking uses a default background assumption of single human lifetimes as it’s time scale. boomers are mainly our thought leaders today, so their world of 1960, is their mental model for how things will be for hundreds of years.
when you’re living in it an era, it seems like it will last forever. if you were born in 1950, it seemed like rock and roll would last forever. if you were born in 2010, it’s already over. rock and roll did indeed die. music fans need only think about how life was in 1980 versus 2020. if you were born in 1900, it seemed like there will be electricity and power plants forever. you’d live your entire life with a background default assumption of cheap electricity everywhere all the time, indeed, 99% of people would never even think about it. if you’re born in 2100 though, it will be something you read about in a history book.
it’s possible we enter the 2050 time frame with not enough fossil fuel reserves and human capability level to make the transition to an electrical grid EV system. we’ll have burned too much of the fossil fuels by then, and now the next generation infrastructure is permanently too expensive to build out at scale. coupled with too many smart people having died off and replaced with dumb third worlders. think about how hard it is to build big nuclear reactors NOW, then make everything TWICE as expensive, and cut the number of smart people in half.
this is an upcoming technology trap. due to fossil fuels, the human population will have a short explosive peak of 200 years, then, if technology does not transition, that’s it. it will be back to riding horses and farm animals plowing fields, FOREVER. the door to fission, fusion, robots, AI, space travel will be PERMANENTLY closed.
120 years: power plants, electricity, cars, gasoline, diesel, fertilizer, industrial calorie production
150 years: railroads
200 years: way, way less humans
1000 years: life sucks
12,000 years: last ice age
200,000 years: humans
2 to 3 million – our primate ancestors
35 million – rocky mountains
66 million – dinosaurs exit
83 million – tyrannosaur assumes he will rule planet forever, like stadium rock bands in the 1980s
99 million – continents detach from pangaea
531 million – cambrian explosion. when multi cell lifeforms begin to live and die in volume, and START to stack up in the ground and form the fossil fuel deposits that we are now burning thru in about 200 years
quadrillions of free man-hours worth of labor sitting in the ground, like a mcdonalds employee stumbling on a flash drive in the parking lot with all the bitcoins on earth. “this might be helpful to my life situation”. but only to his, and a few generations of his descendants. it will all be gone nearly instantly on just the human time scale (200,000 years), let alone any other time scale.
the human population explosion is 100% dependent on a gigantic treasure chest of gold coins just sitting the ground. a dumb third worlder working at walmart doesn’t have any problem at all blowing thru that gold like water, and that’s what they’ll do, too. there won’t be a single thought about transitioning to fusion reactors, robots, and space craft. Idiocracy will be order of the day until they burn every last watt. it will be up to the smart people over the next 50 years to save all humans, and not from climate change, but from man-hours of work change.
Along with Nigeria, Pakistan is the other Big Country Hotspot that we should look at in the years to come.
And unlike Nigeria, they have nukes; lots of them, and they are not loathe to trading them for the right price. You think Nigerian scams are nasty? Wait until you find one of those A. Q. Khan babies in a suitcase or truck nearby.
The land area of sub-Saharan Africa is about 9.4 million square miles, compared to China (3.7 million) and India (1.2 million). Fifty percent of the world’s remaining potentially arable land is in sub-Saharan Africa.
Interestingly
Also, Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? (Hint: maybe)
They don’t seem to be able to resist killing the host, though. Things are getting worse for that exploited middle. They had a decreasing life expectancy here in the U.S. for three straight years, 2015 to 2017, and then another two, 2020 and 2021. This is completely unprecedented in American history. That middle is now almost certainly shrinking in size.
The Democrat party is now mainly just a party of parasitic elites, mostly white, at the top and a parasitic underclass, mostly black, at the bottom. On the surface it doesn’t look like rich white liberals and poor blacks have much in common but if you understand their common bond is their parasitism it makes sense. The current system is coming apart, though, and we will be entering a long economic crisis much worse than people imagine. The current system will have to lose all credibility, as happened to Marxism in the Soviet Union, before we can move to a better system.
We are now getting numerous “reports” drenched with tears about starving Somalians.
A few years back it was “Darfur” in the middle of nowhere, desert Africa.
Ethiopia has been at war with large segments of it’s population as well as neighbors. It is second only to Nigeria in population, supposedly. People die rapidly in such conflicts.
Northeastern Nigeria and neighboring northern Sahara nations are fighting numerous ISIS offshoots and killing/kidnapping a lot of people. Sometimes hundreds at a time.
The Congo and adjacent, especially to the east, is rife with bandits, would be revolutionaries, armed factions supported by neighboring countries, etc. Lots of raids, killings, massacres, but the NYT and related Narrative Bringers don’t like to report grim news from Africa. Racist, you know…
There is very little publicized news about Africa, the violence.
How could population counts be accurate there? Africans for the most part aren’t known for their meticulous recording keeping or accounting. Governments are rife with corruption and make work “jobs” for sitting around doing as little as possible. “Honesty” isn’t a core value, like in Denmark.
Sure we have busy-body NGO Europeans (mainly) collecting fat checks for drinking in big city African bars, but they aren’t in the villages checking on the numbers or their accuracy.
Census folks, to the extent they exist, probably get paid by how many the count. Could that inflate the count?
Death tolls and causes often go unreported.
So I would take their population guesstimates with the same degree of confidence as I would their government budget/spending records or their accounting data.
All incentives, internal and external (by NGOs) are to inflate population numbers. Zero incentives to minimize those unless some “dire crisis” is being sold to Americans/Euros to crank out more “aid” to NGOs and local political looters.
So you do the math, if you can…
Sorry @iSteve I cant go macro today. Out here searching for the last woman the Tills attacked. She wants to tell her truth.
Good question.
Productive search term is “food security”. Opinions vary on this topic, see:
https://www.mapsofworld.com/answers/food/countries-highest-food-security/#
https://www.lanereport.com/123290/2020/03/the-state-of-global-food-security/
African countries now produce much of their own food. They also import significant mass of fertilizer. Interruptions in world trade, whatever their causes, would thus tend to decrease African food supply significantly enough to kill part of their population.
China is ordinarily listed as food secure, but is significantly degrading its grain producing soil in the North.
I have no information on India.
Obviously, the North Africa areas are dependent on Ukrainian/Russian grain supplies.
I’ve seen claims that the withdrawal of the US from policing sea lanes and generally suppressing local wars (not to mention its role in the Ukraine/Russia conflict) will roughly halve the world calorie production/year. That would lead to between 3 billion deaths (if the world descends to general wars that are regional and civil wars) and 1 billion deaths (if the world cooperates to minimize starvation deaths). Mean predictions are at 2 billion deaths, assuming a WW II level of military/political effort and ability to govern by warring nations.
Here’s a video from an amateur historian who generally plays with history and sociology. He’s a bit pessimistic by most standards:
Food starts around: 08:34 on the above video.
And here’s Zeihan:
So — the sky is falling and a piece of it hit me on the head, no? [1] Anybody want to be optimistic?
*********************************************************************
1] https://www.dltk-teach.com/fairy-tales/chicken-little/story.htm
“Arm chair warriors”
The data seem to be poisoned in the case of many other “things”. Ukraine, C19, His Majesty Unz referring to Geoffrey Sachs (biodiversity in opinion incorporated, agency ascertained).
Thus why not at least consider that building on census data of Africa, by something as the UN (salaried functionaries) could be biased, and at the core flawed, with little reference to the how and the why, the interpretation. Everything in the public domain must adapt to the narrative of lies in other domains. Comes with the systemics of our societies (the West).
I would say let them cough up their raw data, and do a Steve from there.
Another prophecy – rather than prediction – of which I am certain, is that by the this century’s end, the gap between the living standards and general prosperity between China and what was once the white world will be more or less equal to the magnitude of the gulf between the present white world and the present third world – but in China’s favour!
Also, for certain, China will not permit any degree of racially heterodox mass immigration – despite having all of the world’s money and most lucrative and buoyant labor market – and will be racially indistinguishable from the China of 2022.
Yeah right.
Just *look* what happened to overpopulated subsistence living Ireland.
What about Bangladesh? It has 170 million people crammed in a comparatively small country, with an above replacement fertility and 35 % percent of the population is below 15 years of age. Virtually all are piss poor and muslim.
I think it’s the ho-hum. Green revolution. Agriculture productivity continues to head up. And remember Africa is a really, really big place.
What the cities do, of course, is extract taxes and provide “services”–producing basic stuff and shipping world traded industrial stuff on through to the countryside.
A quick binging brings up this Brookings article on the SSA food import/export situation:
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2020/12/14/unpacking-the-misconceptions-about-africas-food-imports/
Terrific fun–and explanatory, truth telling–paragraph.
And then there’s this………
https://www.studyfinds.org/charles-darwin-natural-selection-society-unequal/
Mark, terrific paragraph on top of Almost’s terrific paragraph.
Glad to see other people using the P-word. It’s just incredible how bad Republicans are at propaganda–specifically at raising the core issues. Particularly pointing out the essential logic of the Democrats positions in screwing ordinary productive Americans. Most importantly immigration, but increasingly other aspects of minoritarianism like attacks on the rule-of-law for blacks, the tranny crap, etc.
I want to see some “conservatives” who actually will just say the obvious–the Democrats are the “parasite party”. They represent the interest of parasites in looting America and Americans. Once a prominent Republican says it, repeats it, runs on it … politics in America will become a lot clearer and better.
The high-low alliance is a pretty weighty theme in civilizational collapse and it has been discussed in great detail by traditionalists like Spengler, Pareto, and Burnham, if you’re interested.
Nah, the graph showing de-population in 2021 (and 2022) vs. 2020 (plandemic), thanks to the kill shots. Population Projections in graph above doesn’t take into account the millions dying and going to die from the vaccines, plus infertility and miscarriages. Low birth rates for indefinite future.
We are building a new tower of Babel, attempting to conjoin what God or the god of Nature separated, in a doomed project to reach utopia– heaven. It’s a towering edifice of lies, dysgenics, envy, and existentially dangerous ideology.
Protestors in Sri Lanka angered by shortages and high prices occupied the presidential palace (British-built, of course) and burned down his private residence this week, forcing his resignation. Probably needless to add: We’ll be seeing more of this, not less, in the future.
If anyone will pull off the technological leap past peak oil and declining IQ, it will be the East Asians. Yes, their TFR is falling and Japan is starting to get cucked, but maybe Chinese hegemony will turn that around and they’ll find a way to fertilize and incubate fetuses in tanks, Brave New World style.
Sink the ships.
Bangladesh is doing relatively well for a non-oil exporting Muslim country. They are not cursed by Islamic terrorism like the countries West of India. Hopefully they will eventually join Indonesia and Malaysia and become a middle-income country. And they aren’t into nukes like Pakistan and Iran to show off their cojones.
Bangladesh has a still declining fertility of 2.01, according to the world bank. 2.1 is replacement so Bangladesh is actually below it already if that data is correct. It’s actually an admirable feat for a nation that poor.
Right. The single most likely global-warming induced cataclysm is more hurricanes drowning huge numbers in the low-lying fertile deltas of Bangladesh, so it’s all-around good thing that Bangladesh has made a lot of progress toward not growing in population forever.
Pakistan, in contrast …
WIND-AM (560) radio commentator Shaun Thompson openly calls them “Democrat roaches” so that’s another one for you to use in conversation.
https://560theanswer.com/radioshow/shaun-thompson
Bangladesh has a lot of problems, but they seem pretty mild and more likely to come up with reasonable solutions than the Pakistanis.
We will have \$10 gasoline before Biden is out of office…by 2050 gasoline will be closer to \$75 but only the wealthy (top 1%) will actually own cars. But the worst part about 2050 will be the lack of white people. Today there are 185 million white Americans, but in 30 years there will be just 150 million white Americans. The white population has been decreasing for decades. Over the past decade the white population has declined by 10 million. 100% of the decline was among Whites under the age of 45, the elderly white population actually grew over the last decade. but the most important demographic for the future is the number of whites under the age of 40. Since 1990 we have lost 32% of the white population under the age of 40.
I’m confused.
Is Klaus Schwab’s plan to kill us all off a good thing or a bad thing?
2.1 is significantly below replacement for Bangladesh. “Replacement fertility” is not a number written in stone by Zeus’s penis. It’s also a function of child mortality, which in Banladesh is rather high. The replacement for the entire globe is about 2.3 children per woman. For developing countries it can be as high as 3.5, and it is about 2.4 for Bangladesh.
Europe is such a Dumpster fire right now you never hear much about Sub-Saharan stuff
Public Enemy called it in 1989:
You cucks deserve it, good and hard.
One country has a corner on the phosphate and fertilizer market. That country is in Africa:
The world’s most important pie chart?
Is this the real reason Trump recognized their seizure of Western Sahara, the place data go to die?
They seek to help (or to profit from) their southern neighbors:
Your 2nd prediction seems pretty much a lock.
The first part though
is highly, highly contingent. These are dark days–very dark days–in the West. But it is not impossible for the West to wake up. Also there are bullets–automation, genetic manipulation–zipping toward us that may sort of shake us awake.
But yeah, if nothing changes the West of 2100 will be dump and the Chinese settlers could be eating Kung Pao African.
Whee! Must be fun to just declare oneself more knowledgeable of all things than anyone else…
Is this the real reason Trump recognized their seizure of Western Sahara, the place data go to die?
It might have been a good reason, but I would say not the real reason – I would just go with the standard theory that it was to help Israel.
Will we see waves of refugees to Europe if famine hits Africa this year?
So which parts of the country do you think keep our country afloat?
I said that Russia would win this war handily
Thanks, with that statement you have completely discredited yourself. No need to read further.
Look at how big sub-Saharan Africa is on a globe (not on a map: the Mercator projection diminishes its true vastness).
Reading articles about how inept the 2020 US Census was.
it is about 2.4 for Bangladesh.
Considering how crowded Bangladesh is, and how low laying most of the country is (Bangladesh is just an estuary of two major river systems, the Ganga and Brahmaputra, very similar to what Louisiana is), much of Bangladesh may be underwater by 2100. Unless someone else wishes to relocate them, their ideal replacement level would be less than or equal to 1.0
Of course, the basic fertilizer is NPK, nitrogen, phosphorous, potassium [0]. China has banned exports of its phosphorous rock, but from your pie chart that doesn’t seem significant. Nitrogen (N in NPK), of course, is in very short supply just now thanks to various embargoes, and PK alone won’t grow plants.
The pie chart in your message has no label, and the areas are consistent with actual world geological abundance, not a share of the world’s exports. Morocco now has about 5.9 billion USD of a world wide 59 billion USD phosphate rock market, a bit under 10%, and about 12 million tonnes mass [1]. Hard to say how much Morocco could expand its output. Present output involves a conveyer belt so long it can be seen from space [2].
There might also be some difficulty in getting the phosphate rock from Morocco to other places should the international shipping situation worsen.
***************************************
0] https://feeco.com/npk-fertilizer-what-is-it-and-how-does-it-work/
1] https://theconversation.com/morocco-a-top-fertiliser-producer-could-hold-a-key-to-the-worlds-food-supply-180797
2] https://energyskeptic.com/2020/phosphate-production-and-depletion/
Keep your eye on the “Vaxx Trough” in Western birthrates (and in all countries which pushed the mRNA vaxx).
For example, Taiwan’s June birthrate for 2022 cratered by 27.66%.
‘Tis said to be “an unthinkable 26-sigma event of enormous magnitude.”
https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/taiwan-birth-rate-cratered-2766-in
Also see Ivan Chudov’s other posts on cratering birthrates in Sweden, Hungary, and Germany, linked in the above post.
These trends began to show nine months after the big vaxx push in each country.
Will birthrates rebound after a certain number of months? Will they rebound to pre-vaxx levels?
BTW, how many Africans took the mRNA vaxx? And for that matter how many Africans died of COVID?
Will you ever “notice”?
The Lagos newspaper has a well done English website. It is hilarious when you are in the mood. They have articles like the sanitation department is a week behind in picking up the corpses off the city streets.
“Reading articles about how inept the 2020 US Census was.”
OK, you are offering value statements such as “slovenly” and “inept” to describe an action (record keeping). An opinion, not fact. Who exactly is making the charges that the industrialized world, specifically the United States, have been keeping sloppy records? Assumptions are not evidence.
Speaking of the Census…
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/2020-census-estimates-of-undercount-and-overcount.html
Of course, the pandemic disrupted door knocking for the census, thus delaying in-person interviews follow-up surveys the bureau relies on to determine overcounting and undercounting rates.
And, had you NOTICED, the Commerce Department from 2016-2020 demonstrated an “unusually” high level of “engagement in technical matters, which is unprecedented relative to the previous censuses,” according to a September 2020 email by Ron Jarmin, the bureau’s deputy director. Take into account that there was also a last-minute decision by White House officials to cut the census counting short, which to my recollection was never done before.
I wonder why according to who/whom…
That does not meant that we ought not to question the accuracy of census collection and reporting, but context as always matters.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-12/data-scientists-ask-can-we-trust-the-2020-census
I would guess it’s a combination of factors that props up African cities. Firstly, just because half of africa lives in cities doesn’t mean that half of Africans in each nation live in cities. The top highly populated cities probably accounts for most of this.
In the most populated cities there are usually pockets of non Africans (whites, Arabs and south Asians) who manage large commercial operations such as the import and distribution of electronics or large goods like automobiles. Then you have the fact that western govts and China manage civil engineering and city planning operations to make the cities feasible (damming rivers and planning electric grids). Then you have foreign entities that spearhead and oversee mining. They arrange for resource scouting and mine planning. Then African miners get paid wages which allow them not to do any subsistence agriculture. Instead the male miners send remittances back to an assortment of female relations. The miners themselves also dont live on the mines. They can live in cities or suburbs. Raw material mining wages probably create that seed money for African cities. Then there is a local economy there of women doing hairdressing, club owners, local grocers etc. Africa has a lot of raw material mining to fund this kind of trickle down.
It’s not a high functioning cityscape, but it gets you to the bare bones of a city life.
The obvious parts are the energy- and food-producing parts, but most of the country is still productive, if in less grand ways.
Remember the who/whom?
It’s still a lot of people. Would you take in 10 million Bangladeshi immigrants? I guess not.
How about black markets? I believe there’s a lot of money coming in and out of Africa due to arms and human trafficking, drugs, etc.
Yes, there seems to be some basic human instinct to conquer the world. Why? Because!
Maybe this was a good heuristic for when we were all hunter-gatherers. Adding another hunting ground or berry patch to your territory (and denying it to your rival tribe) was a plausible survival strategy.
Rap ‘music’? Why would anyone be or want to be familiar with this reference? You could just as well have linked to a picture of a rotting dog corpse.
All aid from the west to africa must end. They just have more kids and things get worse. These are creatures with an average IQ of 60. They can’t plan ahead. Few africans can read and it’s not about lack of schooling. You can’t teach a dog how to read and while africans are far smarter than dogs, they are not intelligent enough to learn how to read. As for useful skills like engineering, don’t make me laugh.
No doubt there is black market economic activity in black Africa, even leaving aside the double entendre. But I dunno if it is very significant in contributing to maintaining the continent’s burgeoning population.
Arms sales are an obvious one, but then that is money coming out of Africa and arms (which should reduce population, if anything) going in.
Human trafficking? The problem is does anyone really want Africa’s humans? Even Africa doesn’t. Yes, there are many migrants paying their way out, but again that is money coming out or at best intra-African transfers. Ironically, the early 1800s may have been peak demand for Africans. With slavery outré, nobody wants ’em anymore.
Drugs? Is there an African drug industry? Opium/heroin comes from the highlands of Afghanistan or Southeast Asia. Cocaine comes from South America. Fentanyl from China. Maybe there is an African drug industry I haven’t heard of though. Anecdotally, retail drug dealers in Europe are heavily African, but the value chain there is external to Africa (though the expat African drug dealers are an example of the negative value-add of African human capital, as the econfags say.)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/13/young-africans-want-to-move-abroad-survey-suggests
https://www.the-sun.com/news/5625934/worlds-most-fertile-woman-record-number-children/
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/giant-african-land-snail-florida-invasive-species-quarantine/
https://www.fdacs.gov/Agriculture-Industry/Pests-and-Diseases/Plant-Pests-and-Diseases/Invasive-Mollusks/Giant-African-Land-Snail
They came to America.
Nailed it.
I’ve said this before: the UN demographic projections depend critically on how they parameterised the logistic function that they use to generate their projections. And they’re always wrong – in part because the starting numbers are rubbery; second because they don’t do any sensitivity analysis or uncertainty quantification.
I’m surprised that those pearl-clutching about the Africanised version of Erlich’s discredited Population Bomb nonsense, haven’t resorted to their natural, jernalist tendency to view any upward-sloping chart as ZOMFG!!! EXPER-NENSHUL!!!.
You know, like they all did at the start of the recent Chicken-Little episode centred on a generally-mild respiratory bioweapon that was conjured into existence by the US’s Mengele – PuppyKiller Fauci (who has had the coof for almost a month, thanks to 4 jabs plus Pfizer’s paxlovid).
Thanks. You’ve described a likely outcome.
Consider the trillions Whites have flushed down the toilet trying to uplift Blacks.
Now scale that up a couple magnitudes. That’s what’s coming, Camp of the Saints.
As browns and Blacks become a greater % of our nations, the “brown/Black tax” increases and lessens the ability of Whites to deliver exceptional results.
I think you’re entirely right to raise questions about the validity of the UN’s population projections for Africa. You give some solid rationales for caution in accepting the current estimates since, as you say, they’re basing them on current estimates presumably provided by African governments, with god knows what reliability. Maybe there are some Western NGOs or something out in the field also gathering population estimates, though again you’d have to ask with what accuracy, since it can’t be easy or safe for non-Africans to go very far outside the big cities and who knows what financial or ideological incentives those types would have to provide inflated numbers.
Somewhat separately, while I don’t like Steve being attacked, you do have a point that it sometimes seems that outside his pet subjects of racial differences and immigration control he has a willingness to defer to establishment narratives and a comfort with official or approved sources of information which many of us here don’t quite share and find incongruent with the suspicion he otherwise directs at those very same people and organizations due to their well known efforts over the decades to suppress or manipulate or demonize information on topics they deem too sensitive for mass discussion or have some corrupt incentive to obscure.
Getting swept up in the Covid hysteria during 2020 is one thing – most of us did, and hats off I guess to those who didn’t – but if Steve ever made a mea culpa for buying into the impression created by the media and medical authorities that the sky was falling, and therefore resolved to meet with chilly skepticism the next bout of hysterical groupthink from prestige media and the ‘top experts’ and ‘respected authorities’ they selectively platform, I never saw it. And unfortunately I sure don’t see that sort of recognition being displayed in his current acceptance of the media/establishment/Deep State’s simplistic Ukraine narrative and support for the reckless proxy war there against Russia.
Who ever said Africa was supporting itself. How much food is imported into the region from Russia and Ukraine and how dependent is Africa on their imports from the developed world. Having gone there I’ve seen deprivation but I’ve also seen that many people there who are more well off like the luxuries from the developed world. If anything, the current hubris and optimism that Africans and African Americans have should be shown to be lacking in reality given how dependent their more comfortable lives are on outside support (the western world). I don’t see that hubris ending anytime soon as many people there march on to their desires and dreams and can openly admonish white people as the devil incarnate.
There are a lot of good answers to the Fermi paradox, not all of them disastrous. One benign one: interstellar distances are vast, and there’s simply no way to travel fast enough to make exploration/colonization practical.
The speed of light is of course a hard upper limit. But even a tenth of that may turn out to be impossible; at ¹/₁₀c a stray grain of sand will hit your space ship with the energy of a Mac Truck on the highway.
Correction: the energy of about 1000 Mac Trucks! (I just did the calculation, using 0.0044g for a grain of sand moving at c/10 and 5000kg for the truck moving at 100km/h.)
I liked your answer alot — up to the point where you called me a fag!
Very comprehensive, your expansion. It is obvious (mentioning just that single aspect) that the “looping” of narratives to referencing toxic data keeps journalism (and academia, “science”) as well as “alternative” journalism alive. An economy of it’s own. Hence Chomsky to J(ohn) Unz to Y. Harrari, give or take a Stev(y), in recent memory.
“You are what you eat”, “one farts what one reads” by journos taking readership for a “loop”, “wheel of fortune” ride, intentionally, everlasting and cheap. The trick is propping the data, then journos going along or against nothing the matter, with these data, and the seeding produces …more of a cluttered, polluted, confused public.
On top this is very expensive (as compared to traditional autocratic propaganda) to society. The larger part of the “upper middle class” seems to be maintained that way (out of obsolescence until better comes along). Nihilism with zeal. Opportunism of the “elites”.
Thanks,
Chinese hegemony? The Chinese are even more cucked and less fertile than the Japs. China is fucking finished.
Wrong.
With China’s massive age imbalance, dearth of young people, and high miscegenation rate this is a statistical impossibility. At these stakes all it takes is a bit of race mixing.
I know too many mixed people in China – many of them conceived via IVF with European sperm, to believe that you speak the truth.
That’s what cities used to do, sort of. Historically, cities had a monopoly on shipping (because they were on rivers or seaports), on light manufacturing (because they could buy raw materials (thread, cloth, buttons, uncured hides, livestock, etc.) from shipping company warehouses and employ the city’s large population as a labor force, taking advantage of the low cost of living in cities resulting from their access to cheap transport.
Not true since about 1960, however. Containerization moved shipping out of the cities to cheap land for the sprawling container yards, and ended the shipping company’s warehouses.[1] Goods are now bought by the container, and a container’s worth of goods is too much for a city based (small) light goods manufacturer to buy. That’s why the US cities went bankrupt back in the 1960s, that’s why LBJ Federalized welfare (which largely goes to cities), and why the cities now live (very poorly) from political subsidies. (hence Trump is accused of threatening to destroy the cities’ “Democracy”, in that “democracy” has granted subsidies and “clean graft”,, and Trump would interfere with that.)
Services, also, are moving out of cities thanks in part to Internet supported working from home. Additinally, the need to retain political power by minimizing cost/vote while maintaining threat potential of in urban voting farm inhabitants appears to have led city authorities to authorize “marauding”, that is, “living off the land” by shoplifting, squatting in public space, and robbery.
Some cities worldwide have survived as working/industrial/data processing cities, Singapore being one, Hong King being another, but most cities, worldwide, are dumping grounds for population from the countryside, forming the squalid shantytowns ringing urban cores mentioned by Almost Missouri. In the US and Europe, cities have become dumping grounds for excess population from the worldwide countryside
I’ve seen claims that the Chinese are as short off Han young in China as are the European descended are short of their own young worldwide. That shortage in China has raised wages enough in China that the Chinese are no longer industrially competitive even with the United States (!) [2] for most industrial jobs. That’s one reason that the US is shifting back to autarky, the other reason being that the US has been withdrawing from its guarantee of open sea lanes and free trade for the last two or three decades, having found that it could not include the Middle East or Central Asia in Globalization. Should the Ukraine/Russian conflict cause a rejection of US leadership by Germany [3], the US will probably retreat to AUKUS and the sea lanes will be unprotected – and state sponsored commerce raiding/interdiction will commerce[4].
***********************************************
1] Levinson; The Box: How the Shipping Container Made the World Smaller and the World Economy Bigger; 2016.
2]
3] https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/social-peace-great-danger-germany-quietly-shutting-down-energy-crunch-paralyzes-economy
4] State sponsored commerce raiding has already started in the form of lawfare: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/7/the-battle-for-ukrainian-grain-the-case-of-the-zhibek-zholy
That makes little difference to people in large cities. The vast majority of the food in any major city anywhere is supplied by rural areas. I think the more likely answer is the stunning productive capacity of modern farming methods. If you aren’t too picky about what you’re eating you can get more than enough calories to survive on for a shockingly small amount of money.
It would be interesting to know how much of the African food supply is provided through Western aid, either directly via charity, or indirectly through loans that will never be paid back.
This is incorrect. The money for human smuggling is going to smugglers living mostly in Africa. It is coming from criminal gangs and family members in the destination countries in Europe and America.
LOL, well I wasn’t referring to you personally…
Seriously though, I count myself among the overcredentialed people on earth, so I self-consciously demotify things to offset my tendency to lapse into pedantry. Apologies, IJ!
Okay, so it is a subclass of remittances.
I suspect that as with many third world countries, remittances are probably the largest source of foreign income to SS Africa after Western aid, but didn’t mention it because 1) BB753 was addressing black market transactions while most remittances are legal, and 2) anecdotally Africans are much less generous with remittances to their homelands than are Asians or Latin Americans.
P.S. Do you have any figures for African human trafficking transactions?
No offense taken. One benefit of attaining an advanced degree is you realize how full of shit most holders of such degrees are.
Case in point:
“Mo Farah: I was smuggled into UK and my real name is Hussein”. Olympic hero reveals he was trafficked into Britain from Somalia under another child’s name after his father was killed in civil war.
Sir Mo Farah has said he was illegally trafficked into the UK and spent his early years in domestic servitude
The Olympic champion was forced to be a skivvy for the family of the woman who brought him to Britain.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11003683/Mo-Farah-reveals-true-story-illegal-arrival-Britain-Somalia.html
When the food stops Darwin’s revenge will be biblical.
Let them eat stucco.
Are you saying that men can’t get pregnant?
So after telling everyone his name is Mo(hammed), he owns up that it’s really Hussein. Tell me why I should care…
The U.S. is determined to do what even God could not do: make the races equal.
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