Iowa Predictions vs. Results
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How did I do? First, I got the rank order pretty much down! The only mistake was swapping Richardson and Biden. Second, I didn’t know how the Iowa Democratic Caucus was set up…otherwise, I would have been retarded to not assume it would have taken a “Winner Take All” outcome due to the 15% threshold. Below the fold, with 100% and 96% of precincts for Dems and Repubs respectively. New Hampshire predictions forthcoming!
| Candidate | Real Results | My Prediction | Difference |
| Barack Obama | 37.6 | 30 | 7.6 |
| John Edwards | 29.7 | 28 | 1.7 |
| Hillary Clinton | 29.5 | 27 | 2.5 |
| Bill Richardson | 2.1 | 4 | -1.9 |
| Joe Biden | 0.9 | 5 | -4.1 |
| Chris Dodd | 0.1 | 3 | -2.9 |
| Mike Gravel | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| Dennis J. Kucinich | 0 | 2 | -2 |
| 0 | |||
| Mike Huckabee | 34.3 | 29 | 5.3 |
| Mitt Romney | 25.3 | 27 | -1.7 |
| Fred Thompson | 13.4 | 15 | -1.6 |
| John McCain | 13.1 | 13 | 0.1 |
| Ron Paul | 10 | 10 | 0 |
| Rudy Giuliani | 3.5 | 5 | -1.5 |
| Duncan Hunter | 0.4 | 2 | -1.6 |
| Tom Tancredo | 0 | 1 | -1 |
(Republished from Discover/GNXP by permission of author or representative)
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You said you got your numbers after “reading websites for a few hours.” Which websites were the most helpful?
i just read randomly on google news. all the mainstream stuff (the times, post, etc.), + the corner & tapped, as well as some of the atlantic blogs. that’s about it.
Raz,
It would seem that you have a future as a pollster!
Nicely done! Say … screw the science. Spend “a few hours reading websites” about, say, horse racing!
Cheers,
–Bob
Very Impressive Indeed! I am looking forward to the next prediction! How about one for the winner of the whole deal? Who is going to be the next president? I want to be able to pay all my attention to science. Already knowing who is going to win the whole thing would save a lot of distraction time!
Dave Briggs :~)
Sometime tonight or tomorrow raw vote percentages (as opposed percent delegates captured) will be coming out. You may want to revaluate your predictions with those numbers.
only dems though. but i think that will help me.