The Unz Review • An Alternative Media Selection$
A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media
 BlogviewGuillaume Durocher Archive
Le Pen vs. Macron: Is France On the Move?
Email This Page to Someone

 Remember My Information



=>

Bookmark Toggle AllToCAdd to LibraryRemove from Library • B
Show CommentNext New CommentNext New ReplyRead More
ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
AgreeDisagreeThanksLOLTroll
These buttons register your public Agreement, Disagreement, Thanks, LOL, or Troll with the selected comment. They are ONLY available to recent, frequent commenters who have saved their Name+Email using the 'Remember My Information' checkbox, and may also ONLY be used three times during any eight hour period.
Ignore Commenter Follow Commenter
Search Text Case Sensitive  Exact Words  Include Comments
List of Bookmarks

Three years after Paris’ Notre Dame burned on April 15, 2019, with needless to say still no word on the culprit, France must again, as in 2017 have to choose between flawed immigration patriot Marine Le Pen and Establishment globalist Emmanuel Macron. Their much-anticipated debate is on Wednesday April 20. The Brussels bureaucracy’s sudden allegation against her of campaign finance irregularities has been widely derided

and there are some Establishment media worries about a Brexit/ Trump-style upset [Macron’s struggles with young voters leave an opening for Le Pen by Ivana Saric, Axios, April 18, 2022]

Perhaps Le Pen won’t make it, this time. But, compared to 20 years ago, France is clearly on the move.

There was much to parse in these first-round election results. There is no question that radical immigration patriot Eric Zemmour’s final result, 7% of the vote, was deeply disappointing, at least to me. Le Pen received 23.15 %. There are a number of reasons for this score, not least the “strategic voting” (vote utile in French) of perhaps one third of Le Pen voters, who voted for her to prevent a Leftist candidate from reaching the second round.

But perhaps more significant: the collapse of the mainstream Socialist and conservative (UMP or LR) parties that had governed France for decades until the last-minute invention of Emmanuel Macron. The Socialist and conservative candidates received 55.8% of the vote as recently as 2012. But they reached less than 7% this time.

Bruno Gollnisch, Le Pen père’s former right-hand man, could not hide his schadenfreude:

“seeing the candidates of the two parties, … who have governed France for 60 years and co-managed the coutry’s decline, getting less than 7% of the vote gives me, I admit, some perverse pleasure.”[Twitter, April 15, 2022, my translation]

The Socialist candidate was already a non-entity in the 2017 election. This year, however, the Establishment Conservatives candidate, Valierie Pecresse also received less than 5% of the vote—which crucially means that the government will not reimburse her campaign spending! Pécresse was reduced to pleading for donations to make up the 7 million Euro loss, 5 million Euro of which she had obtained through personal loans.

Thus the two traditional parties of France (= Democrats and Republicans), while still powerful in local and regional politics, are irrelevant so far as national politics are concerned.

Macron rules on the basis of a hegemonic center while all opposition has concentrated around two irreconcilable “extremes”—the Left around Mélenchon; the Right around Le Pen.

Mélenchon’s triumph on the Left is suggestive of the racialization of French politics. in the major cities, white neighborhoods voted Macron while black/Muslim ones voted Mélenchon:

Damien Rieu, a social media maven who has joined Zemmour’s Reconquest party, declared the election had seen “the eruption of the ethnopolitical [and] electoral communitarianism, the first step towards [becoming] Lebanon.”

Indeed, it seems that around 70% of Muslims voted Mélenchon and 40% of his voters were Muslim. Tellingly, 45.8% of prisoners who voted cast for Mélenchon, twice the national average. This is highly suggestive of the ethnic composition of French prisons.

(The Government of the French Republic generally declines, on principle, to collect demographic date—see David Orland’s Connerly’s Racial Privacy Initiative: The Unhappy French Connection published on VDARE in 2003.)

Mélenchon, who had spent his whole career as a die-hard secularist, is now embracing his increasingly colorful electorate. While denouncing the very idea of a “Great Replacement,” he tells his activist supporters—who are still mostly elderly white boomers—about the glories of “creolization” in the mixed-race France of the future. [Qu’est-ce que la créolisation, nouvel étendard de Jean-Luc Mélenchon? by Vincent Bresson, Slate.fr, October 1, 2021] He no longer opposes the wearing of Islamic headscarves by university students, something he used to condemn as a sign of archaic patriarchal culture. His laïcité now basically boils down to a rabid hostility towards Christianity.

But curiously, Le Pen and Mélenchon both did well in France’s majority-black and mixed-race overseas territories (French Guiana and several islands in the Caribbean and the Indian Ocean). This was essentially motivated by a desire for handouts (Le Pen and Zemmour both have voiced strong emotional attachment to these territories as the last vestiges of France as an intercontinental empire) and, significantly. the fact that some of these territories face huge amounts of illegal immigration from Latin America and Africa.

Indeed, there have been amusing cases of local black women protesting against pro-migrant NGOs run by well-thinking white women. NazBol Françafrique when?

In Le Pen’s speech reacting to her qualifying for the second round,, she declared France would have to choose between Macron’s vision of “division, injustice, and disorder” for the benefit of “the few,” and her own vision:

The unity of the French around social justice, protection, guaranteed by the fraternal framework around the millennia-old idea of the nation and of the people

Patriots like me regret that Le Pen has soft-pedaled nationalist themes, especially immigration, to focus on essentially statist protectionist economics. Large swathes of her discourse are scarcely distinguishable from that of a Social-democrat.

But identitarian thinkers like Julien Rochedy [Tweet him]and François Bousquet have conceded that, in purely electoral terms, Le Pen may well have been right to focus on bread and butter issues. Macron is an embattled president whom vast swathes of the electorate loathe for his failure to bring positive change, his authoritarian reaction to the yellow-vest protests, and his totalitarian management of the COVID crisis[Macron declares his Covid strategy is to ‘piss off’ the unvaccinated, by Jon Henley, Guardian, January 4, 2022].

While Le Pen’s (relatively) pro-Russian stance has proven embarrassing in light to the general emotional reaction to the war in Ukraine, the spikes in the cost of fuel, energy bills, and inflation in general may strengthen her position in the long run. Remember that the massive Yellow-Vest protests were sparked by a fuel tax hike.

Francois Bousquet, the editor of the high-brow identarian magazine Éléments, sums up Le Pen’s triumph over Zemmour:

While Zemmour knows France, Marine knows the French. And they’re the ones who vote.” [Marine qui rit, Zemmour qui pleure (Marine Laughs, Zemmour Cries), Éléments, April 14, 2022

Significantly, Zemmour’s supporters were more educated, often in white-collar and management positions, and were more motivated. They are concentrated in the prosperous southeast of France, where there are many retirees and a few descendants of the European settlers who fled Algeria. But he even had a few supporters within some of the wealthier neighborhoods of Paris.

Le Pen, however, has her ear attuned to déclassé whites in peripheral France, who have despite themselves adopted a rather atomized way of life, defined indeed by their automobiles, suburban sprawl, and the sparsification of public services (particularly in rural areas).

Bousquet concludes on these atomized lower-class whites: “Do they still form a people? I do not know, but they are our people. We shouldn’t forget it.”

There is now a strange situation in which many activists moved to Zemmour, while Le Pen retains—essentially through her carefully honed TV appearances—appeal to a critical mass of largely depoliticized voters.

I remain skeptical of Le Pen’s ability to win the second round. (But I must acknowledge that some polls have her neck-and-neck with Macron).

The Media-political demonization machine has started going into overdrive. The University of Nantes for example point-blank told its students to vote for Macron, abandoning all pretense of political neutrality[The president of the University of Nantes calls for a vote for Macron, Paudal.com, April 13, 2022]

The Leftist magazine Le Nouvel Observateur published a deranged article declaring that if Le Pen is elected she would become commander-in-chief of France’s nuclear force de frappe and so would be able to “unleash the equivalent of 48,000 Hiroshimas over a large part of the United States, Russia, China, Africa—and Europe.”[Si Marine Le Pen était élue, voici l’arsenal nucléaire qui se trouverait entre ses mains(If Marine Le Pen were elected, here is the nuclear arsenal that would be in her hands) by Vincent Jauvert, April 13, 2022

But while Le Pen has deemphasized identitarian themes, she has by no means disavowed them. She proposes a referendum against immigration, abolishing Birthright Citizenship and family reunification, deporting foreign criminals, and reserving welfare to French citizens (or to foreigners who have been working and paying into the system for at least five years).

Macron by contrast has issued almost 1.3 million foreign visas (an increase from the previous presidential administration, despite the sharp decline during the COVID years).

A Le Pen presidency, whatever its other faults, would at least slowdown the demographic dispossession of the French—rather like the Trump Administration did.

Like Mélenchon, Le Pen’s proposals of protectionism and give-aways are probably economically ill-advised (in my opinion). While Le Pen wants to replace the EU with an “Alliance of European Nations,” it is not clear what this would mean in practice.

There is a significant risk a Le Pen presidency would face Trumpian ineffectiveness—especially given the inevitable sabotage of huge swathes of the Media-Political establishment—and Brexit-type time-wasting. There is a troubling lack of prioritization.

But perhaps a president Le Pen would be able to focus on popular, actually doable actions—which is what Matteo Salvini did, with great effectiveness, during his short stint as Interior Minister of Italy prior to being ousted in a parliamentary coup.

Guillaume Durocher [Tweet him] is a European historian and political writer.

(Republished from VDare by permission of author or representative)
 
Hide 19 CommentsLeave a Comment
Commenters to Ignore...to FollowEndorsed Only
Trim Comments?
    []
  1. Miro23 says:

    While Le Pen wants to replace the EU with an “Alliance of European Nations,” it is not clear what this would mean in practice.

    She says the words “European Nations” – the exact things that the EU Globalists want to erase. “European Nations” (with implied nationalism) are a potent barrier to their ideal of a frontier free, multicultural, woke, financialized space run by the WEF/Davos elite in the interests of the WEF/Davos elite – so she should get the vote just for that.

    The French working class know full well that French nationalist leaders are the only people who will protect them – and they urgently need them for their survival.

    • Agree: Jack Kennedy
  2. Anonymous[295] • Disclaimer says:

    “Le Pen’s proposals of protectionism …… economically ill advised …”.

    So, you are perfectly happy with the *inevitable* reality of full spectrum Chinese and east Asian full spectrum hegemonic financial, industrial, technical, military, scientific, economic etc etc supremacy and dominance which has been the only tangible result of the past half century’s push towards ‘globalization’?

    It ill behooves me to add, in passing, that the EU has economically – and politically – stagnated for the past half century of globalization. I’m afraid the point of no return has been passed. Long ago.

  3. (…) the wearing of Islamic headscarves —

    shows that the wearers themselves as well as the opponents are ignoramuses, indeed Qur’ân 24, 31 has been translated by Christoph Luxenberg as follows: “Qu’elles s’attachent leur ceinture autour de la taille / that they fix their girdle around the waist”, in “Le voile islamique”, published in Cités, Presses Universitaires de France, Paris 3/2004.

    Knowing that the aforesaid ignoramuses were on the rise (yes, already back then, before 1850), Balzac once wrote that “enfin, quand l’Europe ne sera plus qu’un troupeau d’hommes sans consistance parce qu’elle sera sans chefs, elle sera dévorée par de grossiers conquérants / at last, when Europe will be but a herd of men without consistence because she will be without chiefs, she will be devoured by uncouth conquerors” (in La confidence des Ruggieri).

  4. While a Le Pen presidency is much to be desired, I wonder how she would staff her government? There just aren’t all that many RN supporters who have experience governing, even at the local level. She might find herself forced to rely on persons who do not share her agenda.

    I wonder too if Macron might contest her legitimacy in a close election. She might not have a “majority” if abstentions and blank ballots are taken into account. Macron might seize on that to suggest non-recognition of her as president by the EU, other European governments and the United States. It may sound far-fetched, but the hostility to Marine Le Pen and the RN is deep and bitter among French and European elites.

  5. FREXIT for freedom!!!

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
  6. Durruti says:

    To be, or not to be!

    A nice informational article by Durocher.

    A vote for Marine Le Pen is a good action. Yes, French Patriots, well armed, well organized, well trained, Restoring the Republic of Charles De Gaulle would be an even better action. But one action is possible in the short term, and the other, unfortunately, not.

    The possible benefits of the successful election of Marine Le Pen to the French Presidency:

    1. A President Marine Le Pen – might free Herve Ryssen, and suspend the fines against Dieudoné & Soral.

    2. She is a great speaker, and might give great speeches.

    3. All those who abandoned her campaign, as she did her father’s, will be unhappy.

    4. The French people will have one more chance to Defend their Country (don’t go there).

    5. Le Pen might act to Free France from the Zio/Rothschild/NATO/United States – Prison.

    6. The French might be more affable to Tourists (a long shot).

    7. Notre Dame might actually be rebuilt (a long shot).

    8. Her government might include Dieudonné as Minister of Culture (a long shot).

    9. Soral might be appointed Ambassador to the USA (a long shot).

    10. Herve Ryssen might be appointed Ambassador to the Entity (a long shot).

    Conclusion:

    Vote for Marine Le Pen! Voting is easier than picking up the gun. Yes, she doesn’t have a chance (of a fair counting of the votes). Annnd, poor Marine Le Pen is being badly beaten around the head and shoulders by the Zionist (er-French) Media. Yes, I have no idea who she really is, or represents. For God sakes! Vote for Marine Le Pen. Then get your shot (of cognac).

    Dr. Peter J. Antonsen – nom de guerre, Durruti

    • Replies: @frankie p
  7. Macron vs. Le Pen

    is same as Clinton vs. Trump:

    ZOGarbage out,

    ZOGarbage in.

    Now here this, White idiots:

    you cannot vote yourself out of a Jew-engineered genocide.

    • Disagree: Rich
    • Replies: @Durruti
  8. Miro23 says:

    And the EU (ZioGlob) are playing dirty in this election the way they usually do:

    https://rmx.news/european-union/the-eu-launches-a-direct-assault-against-marine-le-pens-presidential-bid/

    The EU launches a direct assault against Marine Le Pen’s presidential bid

    In a sign that the European Union has completely abandoned any pretense of respect for the democratic process and the will of a national electorate, OLAF, the EU’s anti-fraud office has accused French presidential hopeful Marine Le Pen of embezzlement only days before the final round of the French presidential elections.

    It seems that OLAF has a switch-on/switch-off button controlled by the European Commission, and it is increasingly used in perfect synchrony with the EU’s ongoing political battles against mostly conservative or Euro-skeptic political foes. Yet the current example, undermining the fairness of the French presidential campaign is probably the most brutal and partisan attack on a sovereign country’s democratic process to date.

  9. A123 says: • Website

    Which groups will turnout for an uninspiring set of choices?

    — I suspect a great many Populists will sit this one out. Le Pen burned bridges in her attempt to shift Leftwards.
    — Macron is also less than compelling to a large portion of France’s potential voters.

    With low votes cast, anything could happen.

    PEACE 😇

    • Agree: Durruti
  10. Durruti says:
    @Haxo Angmark

    Now here this, White idiots:

    you cannot vote yourself out of a Jew-engineered genocide.

    And knowing that!!!

    You plan to do what????? Your alternative? Actions? Suggestions?

    Or, have you surrendered already? Was it in Berlin?

  11. Rich says:

    If Macron wins they might as well change the name of the country to ‘Germany’s bitch’ and be done with it.

    • Replies: @René Fries
  12. @Rich

    (…) change the name of the country to ‘Germany’s bitch’

    what are the tribes composing Germany? well, Schwaben, Bayern, Hessen, Thüringer, Sachsen, Franken, Friesen —

    and in France? well, “le Quade, le Vandale, le Sarmate, l’Alain, le Gépide, le Hérule, le Saxon, le Burgonde, l’Alaman” and “les Suèves” and “des Teutons, des Bataves (…) et des Taifales”, according to J.J. Hatt’s Histoire de la Gaule romaine, éditions Payot, Paris 1959, pp. 351 sq – – -all these Germanic tribes having formed around AD 500, an ocean in which a very little number of Gallo-Roman isles still remained, none of these “isles” exceeding a 25% Gallo-Roman percentage.

  13. frankie p says:
    @Durruti

    Any French administration with Soral, Ryssen and Diudonne could only result in real benefits for the common citizens of France. F*** the globalists and the Zionists!

  14. Durruti says:

    Ye olde Red Baiting – Media assassination of Le Pen.

    https://news.yahoo.com/important-french-election-approaches-le-092428142.html

    In the debate, Macron Russia-bates Marine Le Pen, & the Media piles on and Russia-bates Marine Le Pen.
    After the debate, the Media insists she lost.

    [In America, Military Veteran Tulsi Gabbard has been called a Traitor by Draft Dodger, Romney, who has been assisted by the Media.] If you are well known, and resist, you will be punished.

    The French election is not a fair fight, but the effort must be made.

    It is not whether you win or lose that is of note, but how you lose! We the People lose!

    But we never surrender!

  15. Marine Le Pen has blown another Presidential Election, this time by opposing the headscarf – a garment that even infidel women sometimes wear. This is much different from banning the niqab and burka.

    Her impending loss may be a good thing. The whole of Western Europe faces economic difficulties, and France is no exception. Neither Le Pen nor Macron has any chance of fulfilling their economic promises. If Le Pen had won, the failure would have been blamed on her immigration policy.

    Better luck next time.

  16. Well, first a little bit of editing :

    radical immigration patriot Eric Zemmour

    You wanted to write : Billionaire propped cartoonish jewish supremacist Eric Zemmour

    There, you stand corrected, no need to thank me.

    Bolloré’s lapdog measly 7% tell me that the french saw through the ruse. For all its flaws they don’t have “l’extrême-droite la plus bête du monde” (yet)

  17. A123 says: • Website

    The incredibly weak and compromised Le Pen cleared 40%.

    Those numbers suggest Zemmour could have won. The real problem with the current Top-2 run off system is that it creates “controlled opposition”. Votes going to the squishiest candidate does not even require a ‘conspiracy’. Simple human nature from swing voters propelled certain loser Le Pen past the much more credible Zemmour.

    Without a genuine ‘U.S. Style MAGA Primary’, the Populists in France have to voluntarily unite around a single, electable candidate early. That is the only way to avoid certain defeat by terrible candidates, like Le Pen.

    PEACE 😇

  18. Laetizia G says: • Website

    Hi Mr. Durocher, you quote the magazine Elements of a good level while addressing the general public. Do you know the journal Eurosynergies? which is aimed at people with a high school education and anyone interested in political philosophy, philosophy, history, etc., which publishes articles by thinkers from all over Europe, which is fascinating. Director of publication: Robert Steuckers. http://euro-synergies.hautetfort.com/

    Translated with http://www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Current Commenter
says:

Leave a Reply - Comments on articles more than two weeks old will be judged much more strictly on quality and tone


 Remember My InformationWhy?
 Email Replies to my Comment
$
Submitted comments have been licensed to The Unz Review and may be republished elsewhere at the sole discretion of the latter
Commenting Disabled While in Translation Mode
Subscribe to This Comment Thread via RSS Subscribe to All Guillaume Durocher Comments via RSS
PastClassics
The Shaping Event of Our Modern World
The Surprising Elements of Talmudic Judaism
Shouldn't they recuse themselves when dealing with the Middle East?