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Israeli Military Analysts Admits: “Israel Can’t Win the Next War.”
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Ynet’s headline yesterday acknowledged what has been obvious to many Middle East commentators: Israel can’t win the next war. The most respected Israeli military correspondent Ron Ben Yishai’s headline reads as follows: “Why won’t we win the next war?” Though most of Ben Yishai’s Hebrew articles are reprinted in Ynet’s English edition, this article is yet to be translated and for obvious reasons. It is probably too upsetting for Diaspora Jews.

Ben Yishai’s rationale is clear and sound: Israel can’t deal with military casualties. Israeli security matters have been politicised. Field commanders are regularly subject to legal proceedings that lead to heavy penalties including suspensions. Consequently, many of them have lost their motivation. Israeli society is too sensitive to kidnappings and hijackings and finally, parents are too involved in IDF matters.

Ben Yishai concludes that Israel is too weak “whether it is a war against Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria or all of them, we will not win!”

Ben Yishai is honest enough to admit publicly that Israel’s enemies understand the psychological, spiritual, cultural and political fabric of Israeli society. They are aware of Israel’s weaknesses and the IDF’s paralysis and they act upon these. According to Ben Yishai, the Shiite axis, Hamas and the Salafi-Jihadists all understood that they “could not destroy Israel with one or two violent military moves, therefore they went on to wage a war of strategic attrition against us.” Any violent round or war whose results are inconclusive in favour of Israel, Ben Yishai says, are going to be seen as another nail in the Zionist’s coffin.

“They see the public hysteria over losses on our side. They notice the media frenzy that weakens the confidence of Israeli citizens, they see the national probing committees punishing Israeli commanders after each round of violence which leads to mistrust in the political class and its decision-making process.” Ben Yishai correctly suggests that all of this is happening when “Iran has a credible capability to threaten Israel with nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.” Ben Yishai predicts that Israeli society will collapse into itself, and the Jews who seek a better life and are ‘spoiled enough’ to act upon it will be scattered over the world to look for a quieter and safer place under the sun.


None of these observations are new to me. Already in the 1980s, in the wake of the first Intifada, I heard Israeli generals admitting in the open that ‘for the Palestinians to win all they need is to survive.’ Palestinian analysts have been commenting for years that ‘Israel may have many lethal bombs but the Palestinians have one bomb, the demographic bomb.’ I have repeatedly argued in my writings that Israel hasn’t won a single war since 1967. Even when it won on the battlefield (like in 1973), it failed to achieve its military objectives. Bizarrely enough, Israel’s greatest military victory in 1967 inflicted on the country some political, strategic and demographic problems that have made the future survival of the Jewish State in its current form an unrealistic scenario. Like Ron Ben Yishai (yet way ahead of him), I have been arguing that Israel lives on borrowed time.

But Israel and the IDF are not alone. The American, British and French armies, alongside NATO in general, are also incapable of winning wars. The Soviet army was literally defeated in Afghanistan for the same reasons. Modern armies do not win wars, they are good in spreading collateral damage. It may even be possible that modern armies are not supposed to win wars. Their real task is to sustain the military-industrial complex by means of constant conflict.

A clash with Hamas, for instance, leads to a growing demand for the Israeli Iron Dome. Britain, America and France launch one criminal war after the other, they never win but they clearly sustain the production of killing machines. Russia actually won a war recently together with Iran. This translated immediately into weapon-buying.

But it goes further. Western armies are set to follow military objectives that are defined by democratically elected governments. In the post-political era, the entire political class is disturbingly dysfunctional and totally unique in its inability to produce educated decisions, let alone set military objectives.

President Trump’s belligerent rants against Syria, Iran and North Korea are perfect examples of the above. Trump threatens to launch wars as often as he changes his socks, but he never provides his generals with an adequate set of objectives. Obama, Cameron and Sarkozy weren’t any better. They didn’t manage to set the objectives for Libya’s invasion or any other criminal Neocon conflict they launched.

Interestingly enough, I allow myself to suggest that one of the only state leaders who is fully aware of the inability of modern armies to win wars is Benjamin Netanyahu. The Israeli PM is aware of the fact that his army is weak and the Israelis are even weaker. Unlike his predecessors, Netanyahu actually tries to avoid large-scale conflicts with Gaza, Syria or Hezbollah as much as he can. Netanyahu is not a ‘lover of peace’ or a ‘humanist.’ He is happy to deploy snipers against civilians and ‘lets them’ shoot kids who get too close to the border. Netanyahu sends drones to attack Iranian targets in Syria . But he is very careful not to pull the region into a total war. Benjamin Netanyahu didn’t really need Ron Ben Yishai, he gathered many years ago that the IDF and Israeli society can’t win wars. He is buying time instead.

(Republished from Gilad Atzmon by permission of author or representative)
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  1. You win all wars (or The War, if all wars are viewed as patches forming one bigger, whole war) by ceasing to war.
    No other victory is as genuine, and definitive.

  2. Anonymous[774] • Disclaimer says:

    Genuine modern wars are waged for territory. The object of aggressive war is to take territory, eject and/or pacify natives, put a new power-base in place, and to change the culture. These wars are fought with demographic and economic technique. They can be successful with the right PR campaign.

    Witness Texas/Arizona/Chicago/California.

    Oh, yeah, we were talking about Israel. Well, they are teetering on a demographic knife edge, and Atzmon is correct in that the general populace of the place wonders if it is adequately safe. If they can be frightened so that if a reverse diaspora ever happens…..

    The Samson option is always present, but that would present a completely different face to the world. A very tricky option, indeed.

    • Replies: @Curmudgeon
    , @Anon
  3. A123 says:

    Ben Yishai concludes that Israel is too weak “whether it is a war against Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria or all of them, we will not win!”

    Ben Dhimmi Yishai of the perpetually losing Labour party. Really? No one with any degree of seriousness trusts him an analyst.

    All recent history shows that Israel can act freely and successfully against violent Iranian militias masquerading as local forces such as Iran/Hamas and Iran/Hezbollah. 10-12 more members of Iran/Hezbollah died yesterday as they launched a rocket into Israel from Syria.

    Nasrallah makes bold claims but does nothing as Iran/Hezbollah troops die. Why does Nasrallah do nothing while boasting he has thousands of rockets? Could it be that he understands Iran/Hezbollah will lose badly in any fight?

    Would tens or hundreds of Israelis die? Probably.

    Would thousands or tens of thousands die in Iranian controlled Lebanon? Highly likely.

    Would infrastructure in Beruit and points south be destroyed? And, would this destruction result in hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing into Syria? Certainly.

    Remember. Israel doesn’t have to take land to beat Iran. All they have to do is deny Iranian funded militias the ability to operate freely.


    • LOL: Alfred
    • Troll: Bill Jones
    • Replies: @WHAT
  4. Israel is obviously already a failing colonial enterprise, even though, like the Frankish Kingdom of Jerusalem it may linger for another century or so. The real question is how much damage to the world will Israel do before it ceases to exist and how much further damage will the inevitable, resulting
    Jewish diaspora inflict on recipient countries.

  5. J says: • Website

    Israeli society is very robust. During the last intifada, a thousand Israelis were murdered by terror acts. There was no mass emigration, on the contrary. Sensational terror acts are futile: the mass killings in New York (2011) and Madrid and other places, had no political or other after-effects.

    The demographic menace has been dismantled: Our neighbors (Lebanon, Palestinians, etc. – even Iran) have completed their demographic transition and they are not replacing their numbers. In Israel, a national and religious revival has reversed the trend and the population is growing.

    The Arabs should reconcile themselves with the fact that they lost the 1948 war and the best they can do is to cooperate with the Jewish State, and live long and prosper as Herzl promised them in Altneuland.

  6. Republic says:

    parents are too involved in IDF matters.

    Is it true that Israeli soldiers take personal cell phones with them,even into combat?

    • Replies: @hamtok
    , @hamtok
    , @Alden
  7. @Jus' Sayin'...

    I’ve often wondered whether Israel will end up as a 20th Century Crusader Kingdom.

  8. renfro says:

    rotflmao……Israelis have high anxiety during fighting…..”the NSA noted that Israeli officials were experiencing “high anxiety” during the fighting and were heavily reliant on the NSA for support.”

    Israel relied heavily on NSA during 2006 Lebanon War, new Snowden documents show
    US intelligence liaison report shows conflict with Hezbollah pushed Unit 8200 to its ‘technical and resource limits’; repeated Israeli requests led to new intel-sharing mechanism

    Israel heavily relied on US intelligence during the 2006 Lebanon War, and made repeated requests for help in locating Hezbollah operatives for targeted assassinations, according to the latest classified documents leaked by American whistleblower Edward Snowden.
    The two documents released on Wednesday revealed that even though the National Security Agency was legally prohibited from sharing surveillance data for targeted killings, Israeli pressure led to the creation of a new framework to facilitate intelligence-sharing between the two countries.
    It said the 2006 war pushed ISNU to its “technical and resource limits,” and Israeli officials turned to their American counterparts at the NSA for a great deal of support and information on Hezbollah targets.
    “ISNU’s reliance on NSA was equally demanding and centered on requests for time sensitive tasking, threat warning, including tactical [electronic intelligence] and receipt of geo-location information on Hezbollah elements,” the US officer wrote in October 2006.
    On one of the slides, the NSA noted that Israeli officials were experiencing “high anxiety” during the fighting and were heavily reliant on the NSA for support.

    • Replies: @A123
    , @Cloak And Dagger
  9. @Anonymous

    All wars are economic wars. Whether that involves territory for what is on or in the territory, or access through the territory may vary, but at the end of the day, it is economic. Since Israel is a Rothschild project, take a look at Eretz Israel and understand how controlling that territory is an economic gold mine.

  10. A123 says:

    In 2006, there was still (probably foolish) hope of preventing Lebanon from becoming a vassal proxy of Iran. So, there was a great deal of Intel work trying to separate Iran/Hezbollah targets from the general pool.

    In 2019, Lebanon is an owner-operated entity that is 100% Iranian. Thus, there is much less need for specific intelligence. The bulk of the targets are easily identified infrastructure such as water, sewer, and electrical stations.

    Israel will still take military intelligence where available, such as rocket warehouse locations. However, the environment is so ‘target rich’ that there is more to do than available delivery methods.


    • Troll: L.K
    • Replies: @anonymous
  11. Israel always started the wars and then dragged big brother America in to fight and die for them. Ironically, Israel is a society that hates Christians, yet has no problem having Christian America fight and die for them. The line has been drawn with Iran, or has the American military come to realize that it has been victimized by Israel and our corrupt politicians. Iran is not of any threat to America, nor is Iran an enemy, in any way, to America. Neither has been Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Yugoslavia, etc. These were perceived threats by Israel, but, in actual fact, they were were attacked and destroyed so that Israeli interests could take control of their countries, their economy, their banks, their natural resources. Of course, we mustn’t forget the role of the defense contractors in pushing for wars and we know who owns the defense contractors The world, including America, has come to realize this, and none too soon. I had a Jewish person tell me that he and his Ukrainian wife hate Russians. Why? ????. So why is that an American problem? Russia and America are White Christian Nations with substantial, peaceful minorities. We should be allies, not enemies solely because the defense contractors need more profit. We need to invest our tax dollars into the infrastructure which has fallen apart, into our country and its’ citizens, not into the war machine which profits few at the expense of the many.

  12. anonymous[151] • Disclaimer says:

    Nah, none of that matters. Jooscum can bomb all they want, but those Lebanese know how to exact retribution. Jooscum will be pissing in their pants… Mommy!!!

    In Jooscum’s unbridled quest to spread evil around the world, those lowlifes will overreach sooner or later, and when the world realises that the cursed entity of israhell will lead everyone into WWIII, it will begin to act and clip the wings of you evil mofers.

    As far as the “Samson Option” goes, you pussy wimps wouldn’t dare. Lol!

    Jooscum like you(?) should and will be eliminated… eventually.

    • Replies: @Eustace Tilley (not)
  13. Kirt says:

    Iran is no threat to Israel in the military sphere. It’s an easy target for Israeli nuclear missiles and has none of its own to respond. Hezbollah, however, sits right on the border of Israel. Hence nuclear missiles can’t be used against it due to the fallout problem nor can the Israelis defeat it on its own turf by conventional means. But neither can Hezbollah conquer Israel. In the event of another war, this means Hezbollah rockets against Israeli rockets and bombs until Hezbollah runs out. Israel won’t run out because they have the US to resupply them. They will suffer few civilian casualties due to their excellent civil defense system. They’ll suffer short term severe economic loss, but the US will make that up to them as well. They’ll suffer few military casualties because they won’t be foolish enough to actually invade Lebanon as they did last time.

    What Bibi would like is for the US to attack Iran, creating a major distraction to cover the Israeli expulsion of almost all Palestinians from Israel and the West Bank. It’s true that they are winning the demographic war by a combination of immigration and an above replacement level and rising fertility rate. The latter is a truly remarkable accomplishment in the contemporary world. But there are still millions of Palestinians in the way. The Israelis may not be strong enough to beat neighboring armies as they once did, but they can still beat civilians armed only with rocks.

    • Agree: Tsigantes
    • Replies: @Wally
  14. Art says:

    The Israelis will lose the next major war because their army is soft and the world hates them. In Israel everyone is in the army. But there are very few regular units – even less battle tested units. All the other units are ill-trained together. In 2006 those units fell apart.

    Israel has more generals then battle tested sergeants. One must take ground to win a war. Israel will win the air war, but not the ground war. Hezbollah and Syria know how to fight. Israel will have to fight both. Israel will take a lot of damage before it is over and will gain very little.

    Iraq and Iran will side with Lebanon and Syria. The world will know that the war will be Israeli instituted.

    Win lose or draw, world sympathy will side against Israel. The world has had a belly full of Israel.

    Think Peace — Do No Harm — Art

    • Agree: Wally
  15. @J

    Believe as you wish, but as far back as 2006, when Israel was defeated for the second time at the hands of Hizbollah, the American ambassador to Lebanon testified in front of congress that in his assessment, Israel could not win any future wars against the Shia militia. I admire Mr. Atzmon a great deal, but there is nothing new here other than the fact that it is finally acknowledged and publicized by one whining Israeli analyst.

  16. tomfcreo says:

    “The Transformation of War” by Israeli author Martin van Creveld, written in 1990 is a wonderful book analysing these very trends and the realities of the modern state’s inability to win conventional war. It is an important book for all who follow and study our current geopolitical environment and are concerned with such things at both the macro and micro level. Looking at events over the last 30 years and articles like this in-particular, makes Creveld seem damn well prophetic.

    The book provides a history of war, the why-how-who of war fighting, difficulties of conventional forces fighting in such low-intensity conflicts, the intimate relationship to the modern state, the philosophy or war, human nature and predictable responses to conventional and low-intensity war, and the transformation of war – and the nature of the state – into the future.

    In sum, the only way for a conventional modern state to win such “wars” against low-intensity, attritious opponents is rapidly, with a massive destructive force, innocents be damned. Else, to play the same game, to fight such opponents on their terms, is to eventually become them. As Nietzsche said, “He who fights with monsters should be careful lest he thereby become a monster. And if thou gaze long into an abyss, the abyss will also gaze into thee.” Low-intensity opponents have free, morally righteous license, to be monsters. Conventional opponents do not, but slowly, eventually mimic them, and thus violate the rules and expectations of their civilian backers who withdraw support and impose controls and regulations guaranteed to lead to defeat. Thus conventional states are damned if they do, and damned if they don’t; they lose if they win, and they lose more when they lose. Our dysfunctional democracies, promoters of faux-virtue signalling as they are, panderers to mediocrity that they are, are simply incapable of making the hard decisions and doing what needs to be done to ensure their long-term survival.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
    , @anon
  17. AaronB says:

    These articles, saying the exact same thing, appear periodically in the Israeli press. There is always some gung ho Israeli warlord ruing the fact that Israeli society isn’t willing to sacrifice more for his pet military projects. And he’s not exactly wrong.

    Its probably correct to say that Israel is not at present willing to tolerate the level of casualties needed to decisively win the next non-existential conflict.

    Of course, the moment the conflict even seems to get existential or even more serious than what Israelis have grown comfortable with, much higher casualties will be tolerated in a moment and Israel will end up conquering more territory, as it has in past wars.

    Hezbollah of course understands this, and is very careful on calibrating its level of violence. There is a reason they have remained quiet the past 13 years, and Israel periodically bombs Hezbollah positions in Syria with no response.

    So there is a sort of tacit understanding that makes everything into more or less a farce. The game is for the Arabs to push their luck every now and then and see if they can broaden the parameters of what Israel will tolerate – and if they miscalculate, the consequences can be dire even if the Israeli response is fumbling, as Hezbollah discovered in Lebanon 2006.

    However, there are signs that Israel is becoming more accepting of casualties even in non-existential wars. The recent war in Gaza saw a higher than usual casualty count with no loss of morale and with wounded soldiers eager to return to the battle, and civilian society supportive of the conflict throughout.

    Anyways, it will be interesting to see how the next war develops. If Hezbollah were able to conquer an Israeli town by surprise, for instance, as they state is their intention, this might cause dramatic shift in the Israeli psyche.

    The silly notion that modern Western armies can’t win wars, which one hears so stupidly bruited about, obviously only applies to half hearted political campaigns with one eye on world opinion and the other on the “hearts and minds” of the local people.

    Wars of savage and wholesale destruction, where the aim is simple annihilation, obviously are winnable with the overwhelming superiority in firepower any modern army has.

    Most people simply do not grasp the true destructive power of a modern army.

    • Replies: @anon
    , @Art
    , @Twodees Partain
  18. Consider that sloppy, lumbering way Israel went about invading southern Lebanon in 2006. Their forces got stuck and bottlenecked in the mountain passes there. A small group of 3000 Hizbollah fighters were able to play havoc with the Israelis’ invasion plan and hold off the the IDF units for 34 days. In many instances, Israeli shelling of civilian areas caused death and injury to just the ordinary Lebanese that included children and which did a lot of damage to the IDF’s reputation as the “most moral” army. In the end, the IDF retreated back into Israel, taking scores of dead and wounded IDF soldiers with them. The whole campaign was a bust and Israel’s reputation for military prowess got a big black eye. Since then, Hizbollah has honed its own military abilities by fighting and defeating the crazed ISIS fighters in Syria, while Israeli forces have mostly fought against the weaker Hamas units.

    • Replies: @AaronB
  19. peterAUS says:

    You could be onto something here.
    But, then again, maybe you are making a simple mistake as most of “old school” people around, me included. “We” see war as Clausewitz. Wrong.

    TPTBs see war as…opportunity. Business (money), power, whatever.
    Wouldn’t be important if they weren’t those making wars, or at least ordering them.

    War is NOT anymore “extension of politics by other means”. There is no “center of gravity”, “mission”, “objective”. There is no need to crush the enemy’s armed forces and…whatever.

    TPTBs manage, they don’t solve, resolve. And while they “manage”, well, they are on top and most of us on the bottom.

    So…if we redefine the role of war to keep us at the bottom, all good from their point of view.

    And, more importantly, if both parties in a war continue to keep their lower strata of society in their place they both, with ease, can claim victory.

    Say, this (possible) conflict:
    IDF starts hammering Lebanon, Hezbollah, whatever. Hezbollah retaliates. That lasts for…say…a month. Two? And…?
    Hezbollah stays there, weakened but with their structure in place.
    Israel the same.
    Both parties use the conflict to homogenize own people, get rid of (internal) troublemakers, get lots of help (MONEY) from abroad…..etc..etc…
    Top people of both players stay in place.

    They both won.

    What’s not to like if you were a power broker of either of participant?

    • Agree: Kratoklastes
  20. AaronB says:
    @Orest Slepokura

    There were never more than 500 Israeli soldiers in Lebanon during that war at one time, I believe, iirc.

    And they were fighting an enemy on home ground who was dug in and fortified in complex urban terrain they had heavily prepared before hand and were intimately familiar with.

    It was also an intelligence failure for Israel – they were shocked to discover the extent of the mazelike fortifications and the way they were integrated to form lethal “killboxes”.

    Interestingly, before that war Israell had just adopted a new general military plan that emphasized airpower, technology, and used postmodern jargon that impeded clarity and confused everyone. It was social engineering experimentation.

    It was the height of retardation, and the result of an army grown too complacent by far. The resulting fiasco refocused the Israeli military on the hard cold realities of real warfare. The plan was scrapped, and ground forces were emphasized again, and simple, clear language was substituted for the postmodern idiocy that had crept in.

    Nevertheless, Israeli forces triumphed in every single engagement, even if it took longer than expected and the triumph was never the decisive blow they were known for.

    But yes, definitely a blow to the IDFs image and Hezbollah fought well.

    All this is highly academic though…the moment Hezbollah actually poses a real existential threat, villages won’t be invaded by ground troops fighting hand to hand and house to house, as dramatic and heroic as that is – they will simply be reduced to rubble by artillery or air.

    But in the meantime, the game goes on…

    • Replies: @2stateshmustate
    , @NYMOM
  21. Technomad says:

    One question I would ask, were I Israeli, would be “How much longer will the US be willing to support us as unconditionally as we’ve been accustomed to?” Under the surface, I’ve noticed a greater willingness in the US to question whether our support of Israel is in our interest. The mainstream news media will not cover it (heresy! Thoughtcrime! Hate speech! EEEK!) but it’s there.

    If the Israelis got caught with their hands undeniably in the cookie jar, a lot of Americans would be willing to kiss “our Middle Eastern ally” goodbye and wash our hands of the whole pestiferous mess.

  22. TG says:

    “Western armies are set to follow military objectives that are defined by democratically elected governments.” – oh hogwash. Since when has public opinion or a democratic vote changed anything in the west? Donald Trump ran on a strong platform of not wasting trillions of dollars on pointless endless foreign wars and spending that money on ourselves – and what happened to the status quo? Nada.

    Israel doesn’t need to win the next war. They just need the United States to lose wars – and drag the arab states aligned against Israel into chaos.

    As far as the Palestinian’s ‘demographic bomb,’ much over-rated. People can try to breed like crazy, but if they don’t have access to food and resources it won’t matter. And Israel is going to make sure that they don’t have access to food and resources. You can’t have seven kids if you can only feed one.

    Love them or hate them, I’d say the Israelis have a clear and workable strategy. They may still fail, of course, but so far, I’d say they are doing pretty well.

    The real existential threat to Israel is what happens if the United States collapses? Nancy Pelosi swore fealty and said that the United States would still send aid to Israel even if our own country was in ruins ‘because that’s who we are’ (and people swallow this? Really?). And perhaps so. But you can’t get blood out of a stone. Israel’s relationship with the United States is entirely parasitical, and no amount of geopolitical strategy will work if the money runs out. You can’t sustain a densely populated, high-standard-of-living society on a small desolate rock without external supplies.

    • Agree: anonymous1963
  23. anon[867] • Disclaimer says:

    “e silly notion that modern Western armies can’t win wars, which one hears so stupidly bruited about, obviously only applies to half hearted political campaigns with one eye on world opinion and the other on the “hearts and minds” of the local people.”

    It is not about world opinion. Neither it is about local people ,nor hearts or minds .

    19 yrs wars have shown that those don’t matter .

    What matters is how to hide the deaths of the US UK Canadian soldiers from the family of the dead soldiers .
    That is not a problem for the rogue government . It becomes a problem for the thuggish government because another thuggish wing wants to use it against the prosecution of the war and entered White House.
    That is the problem of the psychopaths . They mix things up.

  24. anon[867] • Disclaimer says:

    At least the Afgahn war has shown that US either didn’t want to rout Taliban and claim the country for consolidation and stabilization or they didn’t know how to conduct a war. A nuclear bomb in the hands of the moron is still just a nuclear bomb about to explode on the face of the moron.

    Your argument could have applied to the Spanidh Muslim kings who decided not to take the fight to heart of France because the human cost was not worth for the mature civilized moorish Spain.

  25. @J

    ‘…Israeli society is very robust. During the last intifada, a thousand Israelis were murdered by terror acts…”

    The overwhelming majority of the individuals you describe as ‘murdered by terrorist acts’ were either settlers engaged to taking the land of other people or soldiers in an occupying army.

    You might as well describe the Germans the Polish Home Army killed between 1939 and 1945 as ‘murdered by terrorist acts.’

    But then, that generation’s Nazi state probably did describe them that way as well.

  26. hamtok says:
    @Boris M Garsky

    Well said. The sooner the dummies in Washington grow a spine, the better off the US will be.

    • Replies: @Tom Verso
  27. hamtok says:

    Well said. The sooner the dummies in Washington grow a spine, the better off the US will be.

  28. anonymous1963 [AKA "anon19"] says:

    With a “friend” like Israel, America doesn’t need any enemies.

  29. hamtok says:

    Just like Amerikkkans in their A/C tents swilling Buds, having McDonald’s on base, internet, and daily calls home, Canadians having a Tim Horton’s in their Afghan compound, the IDF is not much different in that they need the comfort of home and to be in touch with their loved ones. The West is soft and their soldiers are the same. This decadence is the way of all empires. When you’re not fighting at home defending it for survival you don’t need to be pampered; when fighting for the empire or, the delirium of your leaders in someone else’s country, you need the creature comforts to swallow the lies.

  30. Art says:

    Its probably correct to say that Israel is not at present willing to tolerate the level of casualties needed to decisively win the next non-existential conflict.

    Oh ya — Israel can do this and Israel can do that – what confidence you have.

    Get real — Israel can not even hold an election and have it stick.

    Trumpy is crying – you Jew guys are screwing up his timing on the “Deal of a Century”.

    Naughty naughty!

    Is Trumpy going to take back the Golan?

    Do No Harm — Art

  31. @J

    A thousand “Israelis” were killed by the victims of their illegal ocupation they cannot actually be seen as murder victims. Especially on a society which celebrates baby killings and exists on the basis of the brutal occupation and oppression of another people.

    The Intifada itself was justified. You forget the occupation of everything beyond the UN mandated borders PRE 1967 are illegal occupied territory and the affected people have rights there that no occupier has.

    More to the point though. In the next war will be by more than Arabs, Iranians are not Arabs such comments only emphasise you are strangers in the Middle East. The next war will result in far more than a thousand dead Jews. There will be tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands you can be assured. It is a divided and fragile society, how can it be anything else it is a mixture of races and cultures with not even the same version of the religion which is the only unifying feature and it is less than 70 years old. Don’t be a clown making such ridiculous statements.

    In the next war the rain of missiles and the drones and special forces far more capable and motivated than the silly teenagers that “Israel” will be relying on will swarm all over. All whilst the stolen sliver of land is plowed up end for end (and sideways for what that is worth) by Iranian and Lebanese missiles. The next war will involve Syria and their air defenses too. All hell will be unleashed on the nasty little mistake of history you delusional and you can count on it.

    The bulk of other Arab nations will get involved only once they see Rothschildlandia in flames but then many will join in for a piece of it. The USA will be reeling from losing the Fifth Fleet and whatever ships they have will be evacuating the elite of “Israel” anyway not defending a lost cause.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  32. @anonymous

    anonymous found a safe space
    For his ill-tempered rant about race.
    So “hats off” to this site
    For protecting his right,
    Though he’s prudent to cover his face.

  33. @Technomad

    “Our” media sneer at Omar
    When she speaks of just why these things are.
    Turd Worlders just mind
    About their own kind:
    From AnneFrankism ever so far.

  34. WHAT says:

    Gay standoff is all the kike has left, lol. IDF will not go toe to toe with any kind of competent arab force after 2006, and iranian proxies and regulars have gotten a lot of new experience in Syria.

    • Replies: @Wally
  35. notanon says:

    Israel Can’t Win the Next War.

    using methods currently considered acceptable by certain currently powerful countries who are in the process of destroying themselves.

    i think what will happen is they’ll wait till there’s a big enough international crisis and then use gas and mass drones.

    it’s a shame Fukuyama was so wrong about the end of history – we’re heading into a very dark age imo.

  36. Tom Verso says:

    The sooner the dummies in America’s electorate get a brain and stop voting for the dummies in Washington the better off the US will be.

    • Replies: @Old Prude
    , @anon
  37. Israel is depending on their Janissary U S Military to fight their wars. I hope they realize the U S Military is as casualty averse as they are. One of many problems.

  38. @Jus' Sayin'...

    Israel is obviously already a failing colonial enterprise…

    Keep in mind the portion of the population that fled homes all across the MENA in 1948 and 1949 in response to mob violence (often government sanctioned). Some of these communities had existed since the Babylonian exile, and their descendants are among the hardest right of the Israeli polity – they feel their backs are to the wall.

    When it comes to driving them elsewhere we should be careful what we wish for.

    • Replies: @Alfred
  39. Muggles says:

    The Israeli government for reasons as noted in this essay have instead moved to the policy of using other nations to do their fighting for them. Now allied with the Saudis, they encourage the Arab states to create havoc in Syria and Iraq and now, probably Yemen (though the Saudis need little prompting to do that.)

    That is a smart strategy, to get others to do your dirty work. They have decent intelligence assets so probably do contribute that. Keeping your neighbors fighting among themselves is always a great strategy for a small nation. Muslims hate each other (over minor, ancient differences in meaningless doctrinal matters) more than they hate Jews or others. Israelis know this. Jews would act the same way if there were enough of them to have separate nations for each sect. Some already want that.

    In a small population nation, closely knit with military-civilian ties and economic integration, a long war in Israel would be devastating. Resentment over the ultra Orthodox who exempt themselves from the military draft would erupt if everyone was at risk but yeshiva students. The economy would quickly grind to a halt. So why fight when you can get others to war against each other?

    The Israeli underclass is not drawn to military service like those in Arab nations. So actual war fighting is not appealing as a road to economic advancement. Arabs like fighting, so why not encourage them to do what they like: hating neighbors and engaging in low level endless conflicts?

  40. @AaronB

    Israel could slaughter every Arab they see walking around in Lebanon, but that’s not going to stop the missiles from making Tel Aviv unlivable. The missiles will continue to fly. Oh, and the killing of all these non-combatants by Israel will only increase the hatred towards them, making it less likely the Arabs will settle for a draw.

    • Replies: @A123
  41. If Israel can’t win “the next war” then bring it. The world will be a better place without Israhell.

  42. EoinW says:

    I find it hard to believe Netanyahu is aware of anything, let alone IDF weakness. If this were true he would not continue to tempt fate by bombing Syria. Perhaps he figures he can get away with it until Assad finishes off ISIS. I think it more likely that he sees Syrian/Hizbollah/Iranian restraint as a sign of weakness. Therefore he’ll keep pushing his luck until he goes too far.

    Seems to me that a politician who is aware that Israel cannot win a war would be doing all he could to calm matters in the region. Netanyahu continually does the exact opposite. I’d suggest he believes the exact opposite – that Israel cannot be beaten in the next war. I’d also suggest that what he is aware of -like his neocon buddies – is that time is running out for Israel/USA and with each passing day the chance of a complete military victory is diminished.

  43. A123 says:

    … that’s not going to stop the missiles from making Tel Aviv unlivable

    Nassrallah has rockets based on the antiquated ‘katyusha’ template, not missiles. The Israeli Air Force has been blowing up Iranian missile prep sites in Syria and elsewhere, so there are very few accurate munitions in Hezbollah/Iran’s arms depots. And, many of those depots will be blown up in the first hours of any engagement.

    What will happen in the early days is Iran/Hezbollah will make large numbers of showy but inaccurate launches that mostly land in uninhabited areas. Look at the recent Iran/Hamas rocket launches where 700 rockets killed 4 Israelis and as many as 10 Gazans in including a pregnant mother and her daughter.

    An occasional unaimed warhead will hit an Israeli civilian, but these rare events will not make Tel Aviv or Jerusalem unlivable. Given the fragility and exposed nature of the Dome, it is highly likely that Iran/Hezbollah will damage and possibly destroy it. With incredible luck, Nasrallah could blow up al Aqsa thus ending Muslim claims to the ‘holy site’

    As Lebanon infrastructure is destroyed civilians will flee. Once the deprived of human shields to hide behind, Hezbollah/Iran fighters will either be easily killed or cower in their hidey holes. Either way, the mass evacuation of Southern Lebanon will quickly and permanently eliminate Iran/Hezbollah effectiveness in that theatre.


    • Replies: @peterAUS
  44. Anon[311] • Disclaimer says: • Website

    But but but… what next war?

    Israel has 200 or 300 nukes. Its neighbors are basketcases. Why would any nation fight Israel?

  45. Anon[311] • Disclaimer says: • Website

    All nations don’t want to lose lives in pointless wars.

    Israelis will support any truly defensive war IF Israel were attacked. The problem is wars like the invasion of Lebanon where Israel played offense.

    Look at the US. It was fully supportive of WWII in which US was attacked. But Americans lost taste for war in Vietnam that dragged on and had nothing to do with US security.

    Soviet Union was a totalitarian state, but Soviet citizens got sick of the Afghan War. Again, it was a pointless war fought abroad.

    Israel can win any number of defensive wars if it were attacked and threatened with extinction.
    But if Israelis are not supportive of wars abroad for sake of Zionist hegemony, that is a good thing.

    The negative consequence of this is that Israelis and Zionists may use goyim to do the bidding of Israel. Make goy boys do the dying for Wars for Israel. Jews surely exploited 9/11 for this…. even as the War on Terror morphed into War with Terror, esp against Libya and Syria.

    The way Zionists think, IDF is to be used for defense of Israel while the US and NATO are to be used for the hegemonic interests of Israel and Jewish Globo-Homo Power, esp against Russia.

  46. peterAUS says:

    .. the mass evacuation of Southern Lebanon will quickly and permanently eliminate Iran/Hezbollah effectiveness in that theatre.


    In your opinion, when the conflict there could start? And, any dependencies required?

    My take, re the later:it will revolve around possible conflict with Iran. Those two are, most likely, connected.

    • Replies: @A123
  47. JasonT says:

    “Israeli generals admitting in the open that ‘for the Palestinians to win all they need is to survive.’:

    The FINAL solution of course, is to eradicate all Palestinians. Easier done than said, given the total dominance of Israeli view in mainstream media.

    • Replies: @Anon
  48. @Boris M Garsky

    Right. The Criminal State doesn’t have to “win” a war, it’s got its big dumb clodhopper, Boobus Americanus, to destroy its possible rivals, as it did to Iraq, Libya, Syria, and now it’s fixing to sic its golem on Iran.

  49. A123 says:

    In your opinion, when the conflict there could start? And, any dependencies required?

    IMHO, the biggest dependency is the need to maintain the Russian-Israeli Alliance. Putin does not want large numbers of refugees around their facilities at Tartus. Iran/Hezbollah would love to use Russian personnel as a high value human shields. Russia and Israel will have to coordinate the situation so refugees are channeled East, not North, out of Lebanon.

    I concur that Iran is important. Kohmeni’s desperation controls the timing. Israel can only roll out this strategy as a counter to large scale rocket launches from Lebanon. Khomeini wants something to distract from his (and the EU’s) failure to break U.S. sanctions. If he gives the order for an unprovoked military strike, Nasrallah will likely obey.

    There is one glimmer of hope. Nasrallah is a sociopath. He cares about his own life even as he doesn’t care about others. A failed offensive against Israeli and the collapse of Lebanon is signing his own death warrant. He may balk at dying for the greater glory of Kohmeni.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
  50. anonymous[163] • Disclaimer says:

    What next war are we talking about? If we mean a war launched by Israel against it’s neighbors then no, it probably can’t win if by winning we mean they’ll just disappear and no longer block Israeli expansion. On the other hand, none are able to pose a real threat to Israel. Syria can’t invade and threaten the Israeli state even as it tries to retrieve the Golan Heights. Hezbollah can not project outwardly very far and Hamas is under armed occupation. There is no threat to the Israeli state. If Israel can’t win the next war then they shouldn’t start one, something which always seems to get overlooked.

  51. @renfro

    Yeah – look how brave these Israeli soldiers are:

  52. kikz says:
    @Boris M Garsky

    master/blaster, is an apt descriptor…….. correct, brother should not fight brother, especially at the ‘you/him fight’ behest of a mortal enemy.

  53. One Tribe says:

    “...Israel can’t deal with military casualties. Israeli security matters have been politicised. Field commanders are regularly subject to legal proceedings that lead to heavy penalties including suspensions. Consequently, many of them have lost their motivation. Israeli society is too sensitive to kidnappings and hijackings and finally, parents are too involved in IDF matters. …”

    The other side of the blade of the cartoonish overuse of the ‘exceptionalizing method‘ for gaining systemic advantage among the nations.
    And our poor nations, once with sparks of progressive responsible hamanitarianism, now utterly infected and entering a phase a steep regressiveness and repressiveness, in which free-thought, let alone free-speech is severely censored.
    But it needs to be faced, understood, and mitigations put into place, or all will be lost to the insanity.
    The blindspots in the mind, damaged, with intent, by their own previous generation, in order to turn each and every one into a potential weapon, against… everybody else, of course, are predictable, and must be exploited.

  54. Anon[286] • Disclaimer says:

    Any legitimacy of a Samson option (a suicide vest for the world) is de facto justification for their immediate erasure. Implementation of such a planned threat is not a matter of if but when. The only option is for it to not exist, and the only way to achieve that is their dispossession at minimum. We isolate ad harass North Korea for the exact same reason.

  55. Anon[286] • Disclaimer says:

    “Israeli generals admitting in the open that ‘for the Palestinians to win all they need is to survive.’:

    The FINAL solution of course, is to eradicate all Palestinians. Easier done than said, given the total dominance of Israeli view in mainstream media.

    They will plan to do it in the midst of a world war between the West, Islam, and either Iran, China or Russia. They wrote this plan out in their Zohar, complete with the future genocide of the Arabs and the concomitant destruction of all of the nations of the West.

  56. peterAUS says:

    Informative and makes sense.

  57. Tsigantes says:

    Israel’s army is basically a home defence force just as it says.

    Israel’s conventional power lies in (1) its air force, (2) mini-nukes, (3) cyber / Intelligence Services and (4) the fact that not only USA but NATO and the nascent European “Defence” Force [in which Israel has played a big role, not least in training European police into psychosis – witness the treatment of the Gilets Jaunes] will fight for them. Add in USA, Israel and NATO’s mercenary forces….

    This is not bad. The problem right now is if the global balance of power shifts too far too fast i.e. if the Central Banks can keep the zombie economy ticking along.

    In the longer term there is the question of Israel’s viability as a society, at present a walled ghetto in the region (as the author has repeatedly pointed out) and nowadays predominately a cultural outpost of Los Angeles and New York’s Brooklyn / Bronx inside Palestine whose people know nothing of the peoples and cultures surrounding them and don’t care to.

    • Replies: @Alden
  58. Maybe Ben Yishai knows the “Nuclear Option” is no option at all. Maybe he is telling us nuclear weapons are just another scam to keep everyone in a state of constant fear. Call me crazy, another wack job conspiracy theorist. But before you start with the insults perhaps you should read what Akio Nakatani, a Professor of Applied Mathematics and Statistics has to say. His research interests include Stochastic Systems, Parameter Estimation, Stochastic Optimization, Monte Carlo Methods and Simulation, Neural Networks,Statistical Pattern Recognition, Statistical Image Analysis, Nonparametric Bayes and Bayesian Hierarchical Models, Time Series, Graphical Models,
    Nonparametric Bayes and Bayesian Hierarchical Models.

  59. Alden says:

    Is there something not kosher about taking personal cell phones into combat? Is shooting at civilians from a fortified watchtower considered combat? Is bulldozing houses considered combat?

  60. Alden says:

    Motto of the Israeli Army

    Onward Christian Soldiers.

    • Agree: Johnny Walker Read
    • Replies: @Old Prude
  61. Ron T says:

    This is a silly article, like almost anything that comes from Gilad Atzmon. While I detest the settler colony and its massive crimes against humanity, so far it has been winning in every possible aspect, and those who are calling its demise are quite delusional.

    Not only it has won land, evicted its native population and solidified its grip, it has a carte blanche from its western sponsors for establishing an open apartheid regime with an ongoing ethnic cleansing of Palestinians as its raison d’etre. The Arabs on the other hand are completely powerless, divided between themselves and ruled by corrupt dictators who cooperate with Israel, the state that oppresses their brethren and is responsible for region’s domination by colonial powers. As long as Israel exists, it is a guarantee that no Arab state will be able to mount any serious resistance to the ongoing colonization of Palestine, that colonial powers will continue to intervene in its favor, and the cancer in the heart of the Arab world will continue to spread uninhibited.

    Moreover, in one of the greatest feats in modern history, Israel conquered Congress and the American mind, through its dedicated and very successful coreligionists in the United States. It can make any US politician dance to its tune and have the entire Congress on its feet, giving dozens of standing ovations to the Apartheid leader of a seemingly small and insignificant Middle Eastern country.

    One has to be realistic, even if the facts are not in his favor.

  62. Alfred says:
    @another fred

    Keep in mind the portion of the population that fled homes all across the MENA in 1948 and 1949 in response to mob violence (often government sanctioned).

    Let’s get one thing straight. It has always been Israeli government policy to get all Jews in MENA to leave their countries and to preferably move to Israel.

    The way Israel achieved its aims are manifold. One of the techniques was to get local Jews to get the blame for false flags and terrorist attacks perpetrated by Jews in the pay of Israel. That is how they got the Jews out of Egypt. Many of them had been in Egypt for 2000 years.

    Here is a bit of blatant lying with Jewpedia. This was a highly-successful operation that ensured that a great many Jews had to leave Egypt.

    The Lavon affair was a failed Israeli covert operation

    I hope this puts the lie to the idea that the Jews were in some way a persecuted minority. It was the other Ashkenazi Jews who did it to them.

    Currently, nothing annoys the Israeli Establishment more than the fact that there are Jews in Iran and that they have their own reserved seat in the Iranian parliament – as do other minorities. They offer large sums of money and other incentives to any Jews prepared to leave Iran and move to Israel.

    Despite tension between Iran and Israel, Iran’s Jewish minority feels at home

  63. igor says:
    @Jus' Sayin'...

    Israel might linger around a century…….
    they might.
    but they do not have their own power.
    a critical mass is needed.
    Turkey has 80M people. Iran has 80M people.
    6M jews ???? go away. they use in Ukraine some nazis to fight against Russians. In Syria, they use Turks, ISISa and international islamic mob.
    Fully agree with your final statement. They inflict a huge damage over the whole Europe and Norh America where is the money.

  64. @AaronB

    AaronB, face it; a Mexican drug cartel could wipe out the IDF. Israel’s nuclear arms remain untested if we are to believe that the 1979 incident wasn’t an Israeli nuke, but their ground forces have been tested and found to be shaky.

    Israel likes to project the image of a bully in its region of the world, but the bully is getting long in the tooth and soft. It’s just a matter of time before there is a reckoning.

    • Agree: L.K
  65. Old Prude says:
    @Tom Verso

    Dummies get a brain? We are doomed.

  66. anon[372] • Disclaimer says:
    @Tom Verso

    Florida’s Governor just signed a bill that will censor criticism of Israel throughout the state’s public schools–

    On May 31, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed a bill that prohibits anti-Semitism in public schools and universities throughout the state. However, the legislation also equates criticism of Israel with anti-Semitism, effectively censoring the advocacy of Palestinian rights.
    Two days before DeSantis officially signed HB 741 into law in Florida, he carried out a symbolic signing during a ceremonial state cabinet meeting in Israel. The session featured a variety of Israeli speakers and culminated with Florida lawmakers issuing a declaration of support for the country. “Since we’re in Jerusalem, we may actually get some interest in our Cabinet meetings for a change, which would be great,” joked DeSantis during the meeting. A number of news organizations filed a lawsuit against the state’s government, claiming that the meeting violated Florida’s transparency law, as it took place in a foreign country and wasn’t made publicly accessible to journalists. Although they weren’t officially listed as members of DeSantis’ delegation, he was accompanied by pro-Israel megadonors Sheldon and Miriam Adelson”

    CNN has sued FBI to make the FBI release Mueller file. When will CNN sue Florida to release the donor Florida Governor Israel files .

  67. How easy will it be to fire off the missiles if the US B-52s carpetbomb say a 50 mile wide strip going north starting at the border? Doubt Trump will have no problem issuing the order.

  68. NYMOM says:

    I think you might be right about war returning to its roots if you want to call it that and total destruction being the ultimate result.

    I mean I look at U-tube videos of Syrian cities and these places were reduced to rubble by continual bombing. At some point, hand to hand combat using ground forces goes out the window since why should anyone with access to technology waste its manpower on trying to dislodge the enemy from a city street by street.

    Much easier to just blast them out. Technology kills the whole idea of a just war or chivalry against one’s enemies or even need of war strategy. So I guess as long as Israel just keeps a safety zone around its most populous areas it can just blast everything else outside of that zone to rubble as Syria did…

  69. Wally says:

    “Gay standoff is all the kike has left”

    It’s no wonder that mama’s boys are incapable at soldiering.

    Jews more than twice as likely to be gay, lesbian :

    Israel is the gayest country on earth:

    STUDY: One-Third of Israelis Are Bisexual:

    Welcome to Tel Aviv, the gayest city on earth:

    Israel becoming ‘safe haven for paedophiles’ with laws that allow any Jews to legally return:

  70. Wally says:

    “Iran is no threat to Israel in the military sphere. It’s an easy target for Israeli nuclear missiles and has none of its own to respond.”

    I remind you that Iran has plenty of biological weapons, the sanctioned man’s nukes.

  71. Is that the indestructible Merkava tank? The upgraded American tank with reactive armor?
    Just asking

  72. Anon[330] • Disclaimer says:

    It is not true that all wars are economic. The conflict between Israel and its neighbors is religious.
    The war aim of the islamic countries aligned against Israel is the complete destruction of the Jewish state and the killing (preferably) or eviction of the Jewish people.
    They are far from being able to achieve this aim, a fact of which they, and the people of Israel, are well aware. This allows for a whole of woolly thinking by Israelis, particularly those on the left.
    However, should the islamist forces actually get to the point where they could achieve their genocidal aim, I guarantee that a new attitude will be embraced by the Israeli people. No more Mr. Nice Guy.
    The islamists, Arab or Iranian, will be annihilated. The problem will then be solved.

  73. Anonymous [AKA "S.M. Olaoye"] says:

    Go on rant all you want, what you dream of will never be a reality. Call me whatever you want, but your likes were predicted a long very long time ago. Even if the whole world rose against Israel, and defeat stares them in the face, Israel will triumph in the end. No one claims they are perfect, they have their shortcomings, but none of that will matter, Israel will triumph.

  74. Anonymous [AKA "Kc Biafra"] says:
    @Jus' Sayin'...

    I agree with you, the analyst is not in contact with reality.

  75. @Jus' Sayin'...

    When the oil economy comes to an end – and it will be sooner, rather than later; millions of Arabs – who have been multiplying like rabbits on imported protein for the last century, will be dying of starvation. The last thing on their minds will be the 0.04% of the land of the ME that tiny Israel holds onto.

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