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Kashmir: Three Minutes from Nuclear War
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OpenAI Text Summary
The Kashmir conflict, often regarded as one of the world's longest-running and most dangerous international disputes, has once again reignited, drawing global attention due to escalating violence and unrest. Over the past three months, at least 100 Muslim Kashmiris demonstrating against Indian governance have been killed, with military curfews imposed in the capital, Srinagar. The situation has led to increased military presence and heightened tensions between Indian and Pakistani forces, both of which maintain nuclear arsenals. Historian Sir Halford Mackinder previously identified Kashmir as a strategic pivot, and the current crisis highlights the ongoing risks of nuclear engagement between India and Pakistan, both of which have a history of conflict over this contested region.

The roots of the Kashmir conflict can be traced back to the partition of British India in 1947, which led to the creation of India and Pakistan and a brutal communal violence that claimed millions of lives. At the heart of the dispute lies Kashmir, a princely state whose Hindu ruler opted to join India despite a Muslim-majority population. As a result, India and Pakistan have fought three wars over Kashmir, with India currently controlling two-thirds of the territory. The United Nations had called for a plebiscite to allow Kashmiris to decide their political future, but India has consistently rejected this, framing the situation as an internal matter while Pakistan supports calls for self-determination among Kashmiris.

The ongoing unrest has roots in a broader historical context, where anti-Indian sentiment has simmered since the late 1980s, culminating in a violent insurgency that India has struggled to suppress. Human rights violations have been reported on both sides, contributing to a cycle of violence that has claimed tens of thousands of lives. The situation has been further complicated by external influences, notably Pakistan's intelligence support for insurgents and China's strategic interests in the region. China, having annexed parts of Kashmir, has expanded its military presence and infrastructure in neighboring areas, leading to fears in India of encirclement and potential conflict.

As the Kashmir issue continues to fester, it has implications for broader regional stability, especially concerning U.S. foreign policy. The United States has historically allied with India while attempting to stabilize Pakistan, complicating its diplomatic efforts. The intertwining of conflicts in Kashmir, Afghanistan, and the interests of China create a precarious geopolitical landscape that could have significant repercussions for the entire South and West Asian region. The ongoing violence in Kashmir underscores the urgent need for a resolution that acknowledges the aspirations of Kashmiri people while addressing the strategic concerns of neighboring countries.
OpenAI Outline Summary
# Outline of Kashmir Conflict and Its Geopolitical Implications

## I. Introduction to the Kashmir Conflict
A. Overview of American ignorance regarding global ethnic and religious differences
B. Introduction to Kashmir as a long-standing and dangerous international conflict
C. Recent escalation of violence in Kashmir, highlighting ongoing unrest

## II. Current Situation in Kashmir
A. Protests against Indian rule
1. Recent deaths of over 100 Muslim Kashmiris by Indian police
2. Military curfews and lockdowns in Srinagar
B. Increased military presence and tensions
1. Indian Army and paramilitary forces suppressing protests
2. Heightened alert among Indian and Pakistani military forces

## III. Historical Context of Kashmir
A. Importance of Kashmir in geopolitical terms
1. Sir Halford Mackinder's description of Kashmir as a strategic pivot
B. Historical conflicts between India and Pakistan over Kashmir
1. Three major wars fought over the region
2. Nuclear capabilities of both nations and the risks of escalation

## IV. Kashmir’s Geographical and Demographic Overview
A. Size and population of Kashmir
1. Comparison to Great Britain in size
2. Breakdown of the population between Indian-administered and Pakistani-administered regions
B. Historical governance of Kashmir
1. Kashmir as an independent princely state in British India
2. Religious demographics influencing political affiliations

## V. The Role of International Powers
A. China’s involvement in Kashmir
1. Occupation of Aksai Chin region for military purposes
2. Claims over Ladakh and implications for Tibetan culture
B. United States' geopolitical interests
1. Support for India's nuclear arsenal as a counterbalance to China
2. Historical context of U.S. relations with Pakistan and India

## VI. The Dynamics of the Conflict
A. The 1947 partition and its consequences
1. Violence and mass displacement during partition
2. Establishment of territorial divisions by the UN
B. The ongoing insurgency in Kashmir
1. Revitalization of Kashmiri Muslim rebellion in 1989
2. Brutal tactics employed by Indian forces and the human rights issues arising
C. Cross-border terrorism claims by India
1. Pakistan's alleged support for Kashmiri militants
2. Impacts of international terrorism on regional stability

## VII. Recent Developments and Tensions
A. Continued violence and military actions
1. Escalation of protests and crackdown by Indian military
2. The cycle of violence affecting civilian populations
B. Geopolitical ramifications of the conflict
1. The connection between Kashmir and broader regional instability
2. Chinese military presence and infrastructure developments in Pakistan

## VIII. Future Implications and the Need for Resolution
A. The U.S. approach towards Kashmir
1. Efforts to mediate the conflict for regional stability
2. Complications arising from U.S. alliances with India and Pakistan
B. Importance of the Kashmir conflict in addressing broader South and West Asian instability
1. Pakistan's persistent focus on Kashmir as a national issue
2. Consequences of unresolved tensions for regional peace and security

## IX. Conclusion
A. The entangled nature of the Kashmir conflict with global geopolitics
B. Recognition of the need for a comprehensive approach to resolve the crisis
C. The potential for a new Great Game as powers vie for influence in South Asia

## Additional Notes
A. The significance of ongoing developments in Kashmir for international relations
B. The historical context as a lens through which to understand current events
C. The importance of informed public discourse on complex international conflicts
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Most Americans still have not figured out the difference between Shia and Sunni or Kurds. Or, for that matter, Bosnians and Kosovars. But the insatiable demands of our imperium keep plunging us into new, mysterious places and murky conflicts.

Welcome to Kashmir, the divided Himalayan state that is world’s longest-running and certainly most dangerous international conflict. It has burst once more into flames.

At least 100 Muslim Kashmiris protesting Indian rule have been shot down in the street by Indian paramilitary police over the past three months. Six more were killed this past Sunday.

Scores more have been wounded as unrest spreads across the Himalayan mountain state. Kashmir’s capital, Srinagar, is locked down under military curfew. Indian Army units have joined paramilitary forces to suppress the protests with gunfire.

Indian and Pakistani military forces are on heightened alert as a result of the growing tensions.

A century ago, the great British geopolitician, Sir Halford Mackinder, called Kashmir one of the world’s primary strategic pivots — the nexus of continents, empires, and civilizations.

In my first book, War at the Top of the World, which explores the Afghanistan and Kashmir conflicts, I described Kashmir as “the world’s most dangerous crisis” and warned of the manifest risks of an all-out war between India and Pakistan that could quickly go nuclear.

This awesome danger remains. India and Pakistan, both with large nuclear arsenals, have fought three major wars over Kashmir. They remain at scimitars drawn over the divided state. The United States is actively helping India build its nuclear arsenal as a counterweight to China.

India keeps 500,000 troops and paramilitary police in Kashmir.

In 1999, Pakistani troops moved into the Indian-ruled Ladakh region of Kashmir, nearly provoking another war between the two old foes. Both sides put their nuclear forces in high alert. India and Pakistan have only a hair-trigger three-minute alert window once they get warnings of enemy attack. This is almost launch on warning; the potential for an accidental war is enormous.

A nuclear war between Indian and Pakistan would kill and injure tens of millions — and produce clouds of radioactive dust that would pollute all of Asia’s major rivers and, eventually, the entire globe.

I have been under fire on the tense Pakistani-Indian cease-fire line, known as the Line of Control, that divided Kashmir into Indian and Pakistani-ruled portions. Border clashes between Indian and Pakistani troops have frequently threatened to escalate into a wider conflict in the south on the broad plains of Punjab.

Kashmir, some 92,000 sq. miles (239,000 sq. km), is roughly the size of Great Britain. It has 11 million people, which makes it larger than half the world’s nations. Eight million Kashmiris live in the Indian-ruled portion; 3 million in the Pakistani part. Another million people of Kashmiri origin live in Pakistan’s Gilgit-Baltistan region, which is part of historic Kashmir.

Like so many of our world’s problems, the Kashmir conflict harks back to the British Empire. In 1947, Imperial Britain divided the Indian subcontinent into India, and the Muslim state of Pakistan. Millions of Hindus and Muslims died in the ensuing carnage of partition.

Violence erupted. Pakistan and India went to war over Kashmir. By the time the UN imposed a cease-fire, India held two-thirds, including the beautiful Vale of Kashmir; Pakistan got the poor western third of the mountain state. Delhi and Islamabad have sparred and warred over Kashmir ever since.Kashmir was an independent princely state under the British Raj ruled by a Hindu maharajah. Seventy-seven percent of Kashmiris were Muslim; 20% Hindu; and the rest Sikhs and Buddhists. The Hindu prince wanted to join India, but most of his people wanted union with neighboring Pakistan.

Further complicating matters, during the 1950’s, China quietly occupied and annexed Kashmir’s 15,000-ft Aksai Chin region in order to build a military road linking its westernmost Xinjang province (the scene of the recent uprising by Muslim Uighurs) with Tibet.

China also claims the 12,000-ft-high Indian-held Ladakh region of Kashmir as part of Chinese-ruled Tibet. Ladakh is also called “Little Tibet.” Tibetan culture has been well preserved in Ladakh while it is fast being swamped by Han Chinese immigration into neighboring Tibet.

Anti-Indian sentiment in Indian-ruled Kashmir simmered until 1989 when a spontaneous full-scale rebellion or intifada by Kashmiri Muslims erupted. India battled for a decade to crush the uprising, often using tactics that Indian human rights groups and foreign rights groups condemned as brutal and violations of human rights. Massacres, torture, collective reprisals and gang rape became common. So did massacres of Hindus and Sikhs by Muslim insurgents.

After 40,000—80,000 deaths, most of them Muslims, India seemed in recent years to have extinguished the uprising. But it has sprung once more to life, sharpening Indian-Pakistani tensions and drawing China into the dispute.Pakistan’s intelligence service, ISI, armed and aided Kashmiri mujahidin, and helped sustain the popular uprising, until 9/11 2001 when Washington forced Pakistan to mostly end its intervention in Kashmir. I accompanied Kashmiri mujahidin fighters across the dangerous Kashmir inner border.

In 1948, the UN Security Council ordered a plebiscite to determine if Kashmiris wanted to remain in India, or join Pakistan. India has adamantly rejected the UN resolution and insists Kashmir is a purely internal matter. Deft Indian diplomacy has managed to thwart the Kashmir dispute becoming internationalized.

The uprising, asserts Delhi, is all due to “cross-border terrorism” from Pakistan. Israel has been aiding India in its fight with Kashmir mujahidin.

So the conflict has festered for 62 years — even longer than the dispute over Palestine. Further complicating matters, numerous Kashmiri Muslims are calling for an independent state and demand Pakistan return Gilgit-Baltistan (“Northern Territories” to Pakistan).

Now, the Kashmir conflict can no longer be avoided. It has become part of the arc of crisis that includes Afghanistan, Pakistan and India’s violence-plagued western regions.

The 2008 murderous attacks on Mumbai, India, by Pakistan-based extremists of the Lashkar-e-Taiba group were motivated by the ongoing conflict in Kashmir. Other Pakistan-based militants (“terrorists,” according to India) are punishing India for its Kashmir policies.

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Equally worrying, there are recent reports that Chinese troops have entered northern Pakistan, adjacent to Kashmir. Beijing says these troops are helping repair the fabled Karakoram Highway (KKH), the only land link between close allies China and Pakistan’s Gilgit region. I have been over this 15,000 ft-high marvel carved from the ever-shifting mountains, one of my most hair-raising, thrilling adventures.

Marco Polo followed this same route to reach western China from India.

China is just finishing a deepwater port and naval base on Pakistan’s western Arabian Sea coast at Gwadar. I first wrote about this highly strategic port in a 1980’s New York Times op-ed piece, predicting it would become a major strategic issue.

Gwadar will afford China’s expanding navy a supply base, safe haven, and new commercial container port that gives access onto the Indian Ocean and Gulf. Today, 55% of China’s oil comes from the Gulf; in a few years, some 80% will come from there. Gwadar lies right on China’s vital oil artery.

New roads, a railroad, and a gas pipeline are building northeast from Gwadar up to the KKH, then into China’s western metropolis, Kashgar.

India is increasingly alarmed by this strategic development, which it claims is part of China’s growing “encirclement” of India. Furthermore, India also warns that Chinese troops along the KKH are ready to intervene in Kashmir in the event of a new conflict between Delhi and Islamabad. China insists its intent is purely peaceful.

In spite of great reluctance, Washington is slowly being drawn into the vexatious Kashmir dispute. The US wants India and Pakistan to resolve their bitter Kashmir conflict so that the bulk of Pakistan’s army, now deployed against an attack from India, can be sent into action in Afghanistan and the Northwest Frontier (recently miserably renamed, Pakhtunkhwa). But this cannot happen so long as Kashmir burns, so Washington is tiptoeing into a new diplomatic mess in the Himalayas.

What a tangled web we weave…. Afghanistan can’t now be solved without stabilizing Pakistan. But Pakistan will remain unstable and angry so long as the Kashmir conflict continues.

For Pakistanis, “liberating” Kashmir remains their primary national issue.

But the Bush administration allied the US with India, infuriating old ally Pakistan which sees India and now the US as its principal enemies.

Enter the dragon, China, Pakistan’s closet current ally, expanding its power westward towards the oil-rich Gulf on which it now relies for energy. So, increasingly, does India.

Keep your eyes on South and West Asia, as these regions are called. A new Great Game is afoot.

Eric Margolis [send him mail] is the author of War at the Top of the World and the new book, American Raj: Liberation or Domination?: Resolving the Conflict Between the West and the Muslim World. See his website.

(Republished from LewRockwell by permission of author or representative)
 
• Category: Foreign Policy • Tags: India, Pakistan 
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