Australia might as well be England with a better climate. Depending on how you want to date it Australia wasn't even sovereign until 1986.

There's a lot more of a distance between America and Great Britain, but if hypothetically the UK had a "based and redpilled" government that was seeking to reassert sovereignty over the USA, the right choice would be to drop the stars and stripes for the union jack. I don't think driving on the wrong side of the road and sipping tea would be the end of the world if it meant a restoration of sanity.

And of course you didn't bring up New Zealand or Canada, which are much better equivalents to the Ukraine in terms of fakeness.

The basic problem is that fundamentally the Ukrainians are fighting for the "right" to be objectively wrong. Or more precisely, for the right to join the GAE (Gay American Empire). The only way in which this wouldn't be true is if the Ukrainian hard right has some kind of secret yet credible plan to seize the Ukrainian state after somehow kicking the Russians out.

Returning to your original point, what exactly makes the Ukraine a nation? To just about everyone outside of Ukraine itself, no one can figure out what distinguishes Ukrainians from Russians. I'm not a Slavic language speaker, but I frequently hear about Ukrainian simply being a dialect of Russian or at least mutually intelligible. It should also be pointed out that English-language transliterations of Ukrainian words consistently look much worse than their Russian equivalents, and this is now ruining maps all over the world. Just from the standpoint of not wanting to ever see the cringe term "Kyiv" again one should avoid supporting the Ukrainians.

Now, it's true that any LARP sustained long enough eventually becomes real. The Netherlands for instance was once German, and there's even a parallel there with how Dutch consistently looks and sounds worse than German. So an independent Ukraine could, over time, become a real country. But to what end? Do we really need another mediocre Slavic country? It reminds me of Latin America, where you have dozens of barely distinguishable nonentity countries serving no real purpose. The entire region should be consolidated into maybe five states at most. Russia, Poland, and Serbia are the only Slavic states needed by the world.

The most "natural" way to organize states is around nationality, especially since the rise of mass communication. Where a state departs from this, it should be to realize some kind of interesting, cool, and distinct concept. Switzerland for instance is a confederation made up of pieces of three other nations, but the Swiss have created a highly interesting and distinct polity based on extreme decentralization, direct democracy, neutrality, and universal militia. For Switzerland to disappear would impoverish the world. But what is the objective in Ukraine? It is to become just another gay western democracy.

AP has the take that Visegrad shows the way. Integrating with the West to enjoy its security guarantees and material benefits, but developing your own civilization instead of destroying it. Press X for doubt. Viktor Orban might go down in the next election, and Polish conservatives appear to be doubling down on all of the dumbest mistakes of American Republicans.

So at the end of the day the Ukraine is fighting for the right to be objectively wrong, whereas Russia might be fighting to (re)establish a distinct civilizational space.

Note that none of this indicates that Russia made a wise decision (too soon to say), nor do I wish to denigrate current Ukrainian resistance. Most people do not choose their beliefs anymore than they choose where they were born, and in the event of an invasion the natural response is to fight. Even assuming that some Ukrainians were able to reach correct conclusions about the many reasons why their country should not exist, it would be very personally unwise for them to share these opinions or act on them at this time.

Replies: @sudden death, @Anatoly Karlin, @Blinky Bill, @Mr. Hack, @Wielgus, @AP, @sb

Germany and Qatar have agreed upon a long-term energy partnership to help cut reliance on Russian gas over the invasion of Ukraine, German Economic Minister Robert Habeck said Sunday.

Habeck, who is on a two-nation visit to the Arabian Gulf, met with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani in Doha.

"The day has developed a strong dynamic," Habeck said, adding that the emir had pledged more support than Germany had expected.

"Although we might still need Russian gas this year, in the future it won't be so anymore. And this is only the start," Habeck said.
 

Replies: @German_reader, @Blinky Bill

The whole "hypersonic" concept has been oversold. Anything going faster than the speed of sound can be tracked by the hole it leaves in the air.

There is an incremental gain for "hypersonic" over ballistic. The supercarrier task force will have to operate further from the cost to obtain the time necessary to intercept one. However, the idea that such weapons make carriers easy to kill is simply bogus.

If supercarriers are obsolete, why is China developing its own Type-004 nuclear powered flat top? The U.S. will have "hypersonic" weapons long before the Type-004 goes to sea.

PEACE 😇

Replies: @songbird, @Emil Nikola Richard

That building looks any ordinary new building, but it will in fact be entirely made out of wood except for the exterior glass. Too much of the discussion on climate change has focused on transportation but there are huge challenges in areas like industry or heating. Trees are much better for the climate and the stigma ("it can all burn up so easily!") is mostly misguided and based on a number of fallacies.

Unsurprisingly, this is being built in Scandinavia and in Denmark to be exact. Berlingske has written up a good background article on the matter.

Replies: @Dacian Julien Soros, @Barbarossa

Can you read Romanian? I find current-year Romanian literature as formulaic as current-year world literature or current-year pop music. I think Marin Preda and Camil Petrescu were the best novel writers, but neither was translated to English AFAIK. Both are half-realistic writers, reflecting the Romanian life in the first half of the 20th century.

Replies: @Yevardian

That being said, I do get the impression that there’s substantial sympathy for Russia/antipathy to NATO in non-Western countries.... Karlin is probably right that many see it through the lens of putting down the hated West
 

https://twitter.com/razibkhan/status/1501254010048815104?s=20&t=21igLJ4klqCUykYt-2Xj6g

Palestinians have their reasons too:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cj3-JydZQ2I&ab_channel=CoreyGil-Shuster

I'd say roughly 40% support Russia, 20% support Ukraine, and 40% neither. Reasons are all over the place. One person did mention "sticking it to America" (but not the West at large) as a reason for supporting Russia, but most gave other reasons such as "Ukraine government is Jewish" or "Ukraine didn't stand with Palestine when we needed help". Support for Ukraine was mostly on humanitarian basis ("don't want to see them suffer" or "they are the little guy"). The rest didn't support Ukraine nor Russia because neither support Palestine. Others said they would like to remain neutral on the issue.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XUETRzPJ5Y&ab_channel=CoreyGil-Shuster

By contrast, Israelis seem more supportive of Ukraine. Most of them cited humanitarian reasons such as "the unjust differences of force" or "they don't deserve what's happening to them" (ironic). But there were two Lithuanian Jews who supported Russia because "Ukrainians killed us, while Russians saved Jews during WW2".

Replies: @German_reader, @Blinky Bill

South Africa’s pro-Russian stance really shows what a disastrous mistake it was to throw the Afrikaners under the bus in a futile attempt to curry favour with useless black Africans.
 

Replies: @Blinky Bill, @German_reader

Could anybody here who reads recommend some books (fiction, essays or history), also in Russian, Spanish or even Romanian? I'm pretty familiar with Russian and English authors, but I almost know nothing about Spanish literature (read Borges and Paz, didn't like either very much, actually I enjoyed reading Eduardo Galeano's leftist tracts better).

I'm thinking to finally read one Hillgruber's main works, although it seems most of his output has never been translated, in general if someone (utu?) might recommend some 'powerful' accounts of Europe 1918-1945 (anything like e.g. Lothrop Stoddard's 'Into the Darkness'), that aren't wally-tier revisionist garbage, I'd be thankful.

I've also been looking (admittedly not very hard) for a detailed general history of France, something broad that isn't also just a shallow survey. It feels like an absolutely overwhelming proportion of books in English (or Russian) are about the Revolution, its background, or Napoleon, it's actually not that easy to find a balanced history that doesn't treat all French history as a leadup or aftermath of those events.

Also wondering if there's been any major books dealing with Israel, China (last thing I read was Fenby's 'Fall and Rise of a Great Power: 1850-2009, obviously a lot changed since then), Turkey (I've only read Zürcher's book on modern Turkey), Greece (Roderick Beaton has an excellent survey, but it ends in 2007) or Russia in the past 20-30 years that avoid being hyper-partisan, or at least attempt emotional distance and objectivity? I'm close to finishing a recent (and quite acid) account of Gorbachev's presidency, Vladislav Zubok's 'Collapse', which just came out last year. So a good detailed work on the Yeltsin years to the present I'm looking for.
Probably now would also be a good time to read a modern history of Ukraine too, I read two recently but one was a brief summary and the other was just a partisan travel account of the country post-Maidan.

Also maybe German_Reader (did you read Barnes work on Ammianus?) could recommend any particularly interesting papers or books on Antiquity? I finished Anson's work on Eumenes, 'A Greek Among Macedonians', recently that was absolutely excellent, I'd recommend for anyone who has an interest in that period.

Replies: @German_reader, @Beckow, @Dacian Julien Soros, @Agathoklis, @Blinky Bill, @Dmitry, @Sasu, @AP

No, you cannot destroy military base thousands of kilometres away, with conventional missiles.

Ballistic missiles with that range would have most of their weight being fuel, so warheads themselves would be comparatively weak, relative to the missile size.

Cruise missiles with that range, the same issue, and they are very slow and can be easily intercepted from such ranges.

US or Japan would also have air-superiority as well, so China cannot use much aviation against them.

These bases are designed to repair damaged runways almost immediately. They have been installed with modern radar systems, air-defense systems, etc.

would be sheer insanity on the part of the PRC.
 

Compared to China, US and Japanese airforces have more advanced aircraft, higher levels of technology, etc.

e best hope for the PRC in any kind of attempt to take over Taiwan is a highly limited military campaign
 

But to invade Taiwan in conventional way, would require more than a millions soldiers, to be transported by boat.

Taiwan's Western beaches are next to mountains, where Taiwan has artillery. So China would be invading beaches, where Taiwan's army would be firing above them from the mountains.

All China's logistics and ammunition transported by boat, so they would have less firepower available than Taiwan from the landpower view.

Amphibious invasion is also almost considered geographically almost impossible in Taiwan strait, with strong current, changing depth of coast, little space for ships to land soldiers.

Considering this, academics are writing that conversation of invasion seems to be a kind of unrealistic threat.

American wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and now the Russian campaign in Ukraine have demonstrated
 

It should have been one of the easiest invasions, from logistical and geographical point of view.

Taiwan is a fortified island, separate from China, with a first world economy.

Taiwan would even have air superiority during the amphibious attack, as they have a very large airforce, with more advanced planes than China, including the F-16s. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_Air_Force#Current_inventory

Replies: @Blinky Bill, @nebulafox

Replies: @Blinky Bill

But is not a war between European countries, but between Ukraine and Russia.

Ukraine claims to be "part of Europe", but let's be serious.

This is what postsoviet military* looks like after the 30 years of asset stripping and rule by mafia and oligarchs.

Everything far more chaotic, incompetent and disorganized than I could have even imagine.

-

*Azerbaijan in 2020 was now like a strange exception to postsoviet life, as their military operation had appeared organized and technologically advanced, able to use new strategies and combined arms. Somehow their military budget had not all been used to fund Cristal bottles in Monaco.

Replies: @silviosilver

According to Wikipedia, there are now Chengdu J-20 This is the most modern project, which is described as "world's third operational fifth-generation ". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chengdu_J-20

Its engine which allows its designated performance is not introduced yet. So, no planes with the modern engine yet though.

Other planes in this will surely be unlikely comparable to Taiwan's new F-16V planes. A lot of Soviet originated planes still and some attempts for modernizing of them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army_Air_Force#Current_inventory

Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Blinky Bill

According to Wikipedia, there are now Chengdu J-20 This is the most modern project, which is described as "world's third operational fifth-generation ". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chengdu_J-20

Its engine which allows its designated performance is not introduced yet. So, no planes with the modern engine yet though.

Other planes in this will surely be unlikely comparable to Taiwan's new F-16V planes. A lot of Soviet originated planes still and some attempts for modernizing of them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army_Air_Force#Current_inventory

Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Blinky Bill

Taiwan would even have air superiority during the amphibious attack, as they have a very large airforce, with more advanced planes than China, including the F-16s.
 

Replies: @Dmitry, @Blinky Bill

No, you cannot destroy military base thousands of kilometres away, with conventional missiles.

Ballistic missiles with that range would have most of their weight being fuel, so warheads themselves would be comparatively weak, relative to the missile size.

Cruise missiles with that range, the same issue, and they are very slow and can be easily intercepted from such ranges.

US or Japan would also have air-superiority as well, so China cannot use much aviation against them.

These bases are designed to repair damaged runways almost immediately. They have been installed with modern radar systems, air-defense systems, etc.

would be sheer insanity on the part of the PRC.
 

Compared to China, US and Japanese airforces have more advanced aircraft, higher levels of technology, etc.

e best hope for the PRC in any kind of attempt to take over Taiwan is a highly limited military campaign
 

But to invade Taiwan in conventional way, would require more than a millions soldiers, to be transported by boat.

Taiwan's Western beaches are next to mountains, where Taiwan has artillery. So China would be invading beaches, where Taiwan's army would be firing above them from the mountains.

All China's logistics and ammunition transported by boat, so they would have less firepower available than Taiwan from the landpower view.

Amphibious invasion is also almost considered geographically almost impossible in Taiwan strait, with strong current, changing depth of coast, little space for ships to land soldiers.

Considering this, academics are writing that conversation of invasion seems to be a kind of unrealistic threat.

American wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and now the Russian campaign in Ukraine have demonstrated
 

It should have been one of the easiest invasions, from logistical and geographical point of view.

Taiwan is a fortified island, separate from China, with a first world economy.

Taiwan would even have air superiority during the amphibious attack, as they have a very large airforce, with more advanced planes than China, including the F-16s. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_Air_Force#Current_inventory

Replies: @Blinky Bill, @nebulafox

Destroy or no, firing on US bases in Guam and Japan would be sheer insanity on the part of the PRC.

In my view, the best hope for the PRC in any kind of attempt to take over Taiwan is a highly limited military campaign that results in a swift decapitation and occupation. If PRC starts IJN-like with surprise attacks on US military bases around the Pacific, the former is going to get a lot more than it bargained for, even if it can swiftly defeat and occupy Taiwan. It would an American war-party's wet dream.

Contrary to Karlin's take, I think that Russia's failure to defeat and occupy Ukraine quickly lowered the chance of a prospective Chinese attempt on Taiwan in the near future, rather than raise it.

What the American wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and now the Russian campaign in Ukraine have demonstrated is that it is a quite the tightrope act these days for a great power to engage in a military campaign of invasion and total control of large territories, all without incurring large casualties or inflaming the locals with significant collateral damage. They certainly strengthen the argument that post-modern military operations should be limited in scope and short in duration.

Replies: @Blinky Bill, @utu, @Dmitry

Well they want to fight, why not let them, they will not be as gentle as Russians (they will likely just shoot civilians throwing Molotov cocktails at their vehicles instead of exercising Christ-like restraint) but that is on the Ukrainians for their irrational fanaticism.

Certainly all kinds of far more dubious characters are fighting on Ukraine's side, and for that matter historical personages such as, say, Franco were not above using Moroccans in their conflicts.

Replies: @Blinky Bill

Here some videos from the crazy Chinese guy.

https://twitter.com/vicktop55/status/1502175213563219969

Replies: @Blinky Bill

19.6K Followers

Do you think the ban hammer will soon fall?

ASBMilitary was eliminated at 200K Followers.

Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

Replies: @Blinky Bill, @sudden death, @Barbarossa, @Commentator Mike

Above the level of pop culture, Cold War America tended to be highly respectful of Russian higher culture
 

I remember as a kid some comedy tv show's skit in Australia just prior to the collapse of communism, which did a Soviet "The Price Is Right" parody, with the announcer saying "It's a new....cow!" (Ie Russians are poor.)

Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Blinky Bill, @Almost Missouri, @Currahee

In the end, the Sword rules.
 

Replies: @Blinky Bill, @sher singh

Thank you. You are by far the most knowledgeable military expert writing around here (perhaps the only military expert), your comment is much appreciated.

even if Russia were to win (which is not in any way guaranteed), what will a Russian occupation look like? Israeli military theorist Martin van Creveld once wrote that, in a post-modern world, when the strong fights the weak in a long war, the strong loses. Having failed to topple Ukraine in a lightning attack, Russia will have to use much more destructive means to achieve victory, which will only embitter the population it was supposed to “liberate,” even setting aside the enormous international opprobrium. Although hardly assured one way or another, the prospect of a Russian victory being Pyrrhic and the conquest of Ukraine being a poisoned pill cannot be dismissed easily.
 

Replies: @sudden death, @utu, @Anatoly Karlin, @Pharmakon, @Twinkie

Replies: @Blinky Bill

It’s a damn shame that Rand Paul didn’t have the data so he could ask Fauci about this when he had him there under oath. I imagine we might maybe never see Fauci ever again.
 

Replies: @Wokechoke, @A123, @Emil Nikola Richard, @Blinky Bill

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNdds9BacAEurOU.jpg

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRBZjzn4BQ4BNsT-sjGh8f0vm1mEFen1-1kXw&usqp.jpg

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcS1p3hKrh3h29vr-FviofQ31xs-1KDAbzO50Q&usqp.jpg

Replies: @Blinky Bill

quite the tightrope act these days for a great power to engage in a military campaign of invasion and total control of

large territories
 

 

Replies: @Blinky Bill

Destroy or no, firing on US bases in Guam and Japan would be sheer insanity on the part of the PRC.

In my view, the best hope for the PRC in any kind of attempt to take over Taiwan is a highly limited military campaign that results in a swift decapitation and occupation. If PRC starts IJN-like with surprise attacks on US military bases around the Pacific, the former is going to get a lot more than it bargained for, even if it can swiftly defeat and occupy Taiwan. It would an American war-party's wet dream.

Contrary to Karlin's take, I think that Russia's failure to defeat and occupy Ukraine quickly lowered the chance of a prospective Chinese attempt on Taiwan in the near future, rather than raise it.

What the American wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and now the Russian campaign in Ukraine have demonstrated is that it is a quite the tightrope act these days for a great power to engage in a military campaign of invasion and total control of large territories, all without incurring large casualties or inflaming the locals with significant collateral damage. They certainly strengthen the argument that post-modern military operations should be limited in scope and short in duration.

Replies: @Blinky Bill, @utu, @Dmitry

https://www.johnderbyshire.com/Opinions/NationalQuestion/occupation.html

Replies: @Blinky Bill

Replies: @Blinky Bill

Karate Kid could well be my favorite ever movie. I've lost count of how times I've seen it. The bottles on the truck scene, I only noticed the gratuitous anti-racism message aspect of it as an adult. Also, virtually all the bad guys are a blond.

But that's small potatoes compared to the crap Hollywood pulls in other movies. My main complaint about Karate Kid is the plot near the beginning. Daniel's cool and fun, the sort of guy who'd make friends easily. Indeed, he gets invited to a beach party right away. And when he's there he takes part in the soccer game (apparently doing well), he not only accepts the challenge to approach the babe but wins her over, and then he stands up for her when her ex is giving her a hard time.

So he loses a fight with Mr Karate Champ, big deal. At least he was man enough to fight (not only threw a punch, but connected). No shame in that. Yet somehow, everyone there immediately starts treating him as some massive loser whom it'd be insulting to be to associated with. That doesn't even begin to make sense, not even by high school logic.

I never watched the remake with the black kid. But I watched five or six episodes into the Kobra Kai tv series, which was better than I expected it to be. I should actually finish watching that.

Replies: @songbird, @Blinky Bill

Re utu's ethnicity, from the other open thread.

Ok, I see where you're coming from, but I think I'd need better evidence than that to feel so confident, given the enormous disparity in base rates (there are way more Poles and Czechs than Silesians).

Replies: @AP

February 8, 1861, to May 9, 1865 compared with December 1, 1991, to ????, 2022.

Replies: @Blinky Bill

https://youtu.be/1YWGuwtsskU

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSftft2sKS6IQCxFQKzks5e9_PxeIFbMxbQWQ&usqp.jpg

https://youtu.be/z0mNYcSqQns

Replies: @Blinky Bill

What do you guess the likely outcome will be?
 

Replies: @Blinky Bill, @AP

Nigh impossible because of Israel.

Replies: @Blinky Bill

2. Is South Korea a bellweather? It has refused to participate in energy sanctions (import ban) but will institute a tech embargo. I think this will be the model that survives going forward once/when the war settles down. Russian energy/commodities are too important to ban. Question is if Putin will use them as bargaining chips to get access to silicon chips, and wether it will be successful.

3. https://twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1501290394067341316

4. Remember this when you hear about "Russia's global isolation".

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1501411215263862784

Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Blinky Bill, @LondonBob

Replies: @Dmitry, @Anatoly Karlin, @Blinky Bill

Replies: @Blinky Bill

https://twitter.com/MEMRIReports/status/1461337297811656713?s=20&t=DKw7m8nffn-uu4wDQwu3IA

Replies: @Blinky Bill

Replies: @Blinky Bill, @AnotherDad, @showmethereal

it would be interesting to see how AK explains his failed predictions of a cakewalk, mass surrenders, serious resistance ending in less than a week and the fall of Kiev a few days after the start of hostilities.
 

This is the pattern we've already seen.

Replies: @Blinky Bill

Chinese have long time horizons. They can see that the American Imperium is in a long-term decline.
 

Replies: @ic1000, @Blinky Bill, @nebulafox, @JimDandy

going too far when you’re trying to argue that US diplomatic actions in the run-up to the Iraq war were somehow a model of sophisticated statecraft
 

I would say description of a difference I wanted to talk about, would be something like "attempt to manufacture casus belli to present to international community in 2003" vs "no presentation casus belli to international community, with surprise attack in 2022".

If you read the comments above, I have only used Aliev in any sentence, that could imply sophistication (and even there is probably rhetorical exaggeration of Aliev in my comment, but he is the most recent example of starting such a war, without international reaction).

I do not write anyone should emulate 2003 invasion of Iraq, whether invasion itself, or diplomatic activity before. But if you choose between presentation of manufactured pretext to international community before war of aggression, vs no presentation of pretext and then surprise attack. Then the former will be a less diplomatically noneffective strategy than the latter.

WMDs were widely regarded as a pretext, or at the very least there was a sense that the US didn’t really want to give the UN inspectors around Hans Blix the chance to continue their work, but was itching to resort to military
 

I'm not talking about "having pretext" vs "not having pretext". This is about "creating pretext".

It's not "just war" vs "unjust war". "Just war" would require "having pretext", not "creating pretext".

My impression of the historical consensus, is that people do not argue that Iraq 2003 is "just war" according to its manufactured pretext. It is viewed as a "unjust war with manufactured pretext".

But one of many differences you can see between 2003 and 2022, is attempt to add a manufactured pretext to present to the international community, before the invasion in 2003. If you do not manufacture pretext, the international reaction will be likely much worse, than if you present manufactured pretext (if if only some will believe it).

Replies: @German_reader, @Blinky Bill, @Mikel

Germany also publicly opposed Ukraine's entrance into the EU today. Berlin is the last capital in Europe where there is any geopolitical sanity.

What we need is realpolitik - which the US tries its best to sabotage at every turn.

Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Wielgus, @A123, @Blinky Bill

I did a google search for the quote you cite, and found nothing to attribute it to Mearsheimer, but rather to someone on Twitter.

If you know better, please enlighten me.

Replies: @Blinky Bill

Don’t forget India. Oddly both Pakistan and India are currying favour with Russia.

Replies: @Blinky Bill

Replies: @Twinkie

Putin is not the main problem, we are lucky indeed that we are dealing with him and his clique of incompetent computer illiterate corrupt Soviet boomers. There is quite a big chance that younger RF generation would do the same what he is doing now, just with way more quality in action, so Putin needs to stay until his natural end. This ongoing mugabization of putinism so far has been spectacular.

Replies: @Blinky Bill

During last June’s Biden-Putin summit, our president told the Russian leader that we fully understood the terrible pressure he was facing from the Chinese, and his fear of their military threat.
 

Replies: @Blinky Bill

Shock and disbelief.

Replies: @Blinky Bill

Germany also publicly opposed Ukraine's entrance into the EU today. Berlin is the last capital in Europe where there is any geopolitical sanity.

What we need is realpolitik - which the US tries its best to sabotage at every turn.

Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Wielgus, @A123, @Blinky Bill

Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Emil Nikola Richard

They’ve already essentially abandoned us…only useful as to how much damage can be inflicted to Russia
 

During the previous post-Soviet conflict, 2020's Artaskh War (one with real possibility of genocide) as US interests weren't involved you barely heard a blip, nothing, nada, anywhere in media of a single Western country.
Of course the global stakes are far higher with this Ukrainian War, but do you really think US planners or Western governments in general give a shit about Ukrainians? Probably a calculation was made long ago that Ukraine was more more useful as an open bleeding (now, literally) sore than as a functional country, the only goal from this point from the 'Western' point of view is to bleed the population out as long as possible, more photo-ops of dead children and destroyed playgrounds from Russian invaders, keeping horrified Europeans under US thumb and further crusade of modern agendas like gender-assignment surgery for young children, replacement of the native European populations and so on it goes.

But again, I don't see how Putin thought mounting a full-scale invasion of the whole Ukraine was a good idea, the optics alone are disastrous, let alone the material and human costs of war between two nations that are practically the same.
I don't to sound like a mirror defeatist of German_Reader, but it feels like Russia may have fallen hard into the Thucydides Trap, like so many other grim examples in history.

Replies: @German_reader, @sher singh, @silviosilver, @Svidomyatheart

Is that from Our Benevolent Overlord's "The Spartan Naval Empire"?
I feel I would have remembered such a powerful take, but I did read it years ago, between many other papers.. though it was just background, as I was working on the revolution of Kleomenes III anyway.

Replies: @Blinky Bill

but it feels like Russia may have fallen hard into the Thucydides Trap
 

Replies: @Blinky Bill

I agree with every point you make in this post and goes further with the entire Novorossiya given local autonomy on the oblast level.

But as AK understands it, Putin is going for wholesale annexation and the negation of Ukrainian national identity, which I reject and hopefully you won't approve of.

Banderites can be a party like the far-right in France and Germany, and even a part of the ruling coalition, but not having a militia on the Hezbollah model. Leave the use of force to the (reduced) armed or security apparatus of Ukraine. Ukrainian politicians need to (re)learn the balancing act that allowed Finland to thrive in Cold War.

Replies: @Blinky Bill

https://twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1500615240505085952

China, India, Africa and all the important players in Latinx America have unequivocally stated that they will not sanction Russia. The so-called "devastating SWIFT sanctions" have more holes than Swiss cheese. The biggest and most systemically important bank in Russia, Sberbank, has been spared because it is critical in facilitating oil and gas trade.

This should not surprise us. Germany and Italy made these demands and are not backing off. The US is now trying to pursue an oil embargo alone on Russia, which is mostly just optics as America was never an important client. It's also an admission of defeat that it can't get Europe to sign on.

Russia's export structure is ideally suited to the moment, with commodity prices going on a rampage. The contrast with the 2014 crisis couldn't have been more stark, when the bottom fell out and forced Russia to play defensive. In addition, the economy was less prepared for a radical shift. MIR didn't exist then. China's own technological sovereignty progress was far behind what it is now.

I am now seeing estimates of up to a 20% GDP collapse. This is wishful thinking. Not even half that will happen, and most of the GDP fall this year will be one-off transition costs as Russians cut ties with the West in a range of sectors.

The biggest long-term challenge is to guarantee a smooth transition to Chinese alternatives once/when commodity prices calm down. Russia is too weak to go it alone and pride may prevent many Russians from accepting that. Current elevated commodity prices are giving Russia a giant umbrella to work under. Better prepare for the rain when the umbrella is gone.

Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Barbarossa, @mal

By misery you presumably mean joy, vigor, and national rejuvenation. The past weeklist has seen most of Russian nationalists' remaining goals accomplished turbo.

Russia is not in the same weight class as Iran, let alone North Korea, so the effects of Western sanctions (and they are Western; not just China, but BRICS, couldn't care less) will be much more limited. Furthermore, Russia has plenty of leverage of its own, natural gas to Germany has been cut off today, fertilizer exports have been drastically cut (Russia and Ukraine account for 1/3 of the world's wheat exports), etc. The world economy crashing with no survivors will mitigate any public discontent with Putin over the Russian economy's own short-term collapse.

Replies: @A123, @Blinky Bill

Companies that have fled the Russia market:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNCUaJiWQAIULD3.jpg

Entire markets open for Indian & Chinese businesses to enter, the rest pirated/smuggled/VPN-accessed.

Most of those are going ZERO before 2030 - WEF says so.

Replies: @A123, @Mr. Hack, @Blinky Bill

Russia To Build RISC-V Processors for Laptops: 8-core, 2 GHz, 12nm, 2025

Russian outlet Vedomosti.ru today is reporting that the conglomerate Rostec, a Russian state-backed corporation specializing in investment in technology, has penned a deal with server company Yadro and silicon design company Syntacore to develop RISC-V processors for computers, laptops, and servers. Initial reports are suggesting that Syntacore will develop a powerful enough RISC-V design to power government and education systems by 2025.

The cost of the project is reported to be around 30 billion rubles ($400m), with that the organizers of the project plan to sell 60,000 systems based around new processors containing RISC-V cores as the main processing cores. The reports state that the goal is to build an 8-core processor, running at 2 GHz, using a 12-nanometer process, which presumably means GlobalFoundries but at this point it is unclear. Out of the project funding, two-thirds will be provided by ‘anchor customers’ (such as Rostec and subsidiaries), while the final third will come from the federal budget. The systems these processors will go into will operate initially at Russia’s Ministry of Education and Science, as well as the Ministry of Health.
 

That means they have to ditch any plans on self-reliance. There is only one option left:

https://twitter.com/ArtyomLukin/status/1499754937672155137

We all know which country he hints at.

Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Beckow, @Not Raul, @Dmitry, @Blinky Bill

Yes, entering cities will be a dystopian level of violence.

I'm wondering if anyone here has read books about the wars in Grozny, or Battle of Berlin, etc?

We have even a couple of educated people here like German Reader, who can read books.

Also I was expecting Yevardian at least to read some books about Grozny.

-

There was an interesting discussion from YouTube about the war so far by military experts. Exaggeration in the beginning about economic effects so far in Russia.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXEvbVoDiU0

Replies: @Blinky Bill

33 Revolutions per Minute

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQlroADDjDQHdP21Iz8IvVEZHnfT1kXmsU6zA&usqp.jpg






https://youtu.be/48Kk7kobMQY

Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

Putin is attacking perhaps the whitest country in Europe.

Replies: @Blinky Bill, @J.Ross, @Anonymous, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Corvinus, @Paperback Writer, @Brutusale

If you are Xi, does Ukraine make you think Taiwan would be a walk-over?

Replies: @BB753, @Charlotte, @Blinky Bill, @J.Ross, @Inquiring Mind

Replies: @Tono Bungay, @Blinky Bill, @PhysicistDave, @Chrisnonymous, @Hapalong Cassidy, @AndrewR, @Art Deco, @J.Ross, @quewin, @AnotherDad, @Greysquirrell, @Clyde, @JMcG, @Hypnotoad666, @Pop Warner, @Richard of Melbourne, @dindunuffins

https://fortune.com/2022/02/22/india-chip-shortage-semiconductor-manufacturing-crisis-design-solution-rakesh-kumar/

China will help out after they take over TSMC. Will be a great irony when it embargos the West in turn.

Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Blinky Bill

Not just a wagie, but a Russian eurocel (it's all over for you guys, so sorry). One would think after assuring us for so long that this would never happen because all of Russia's elite children study in the West, he'd own his L. Instead, he just keeps digging deeper down the hole, lashing out at people being corrupt, stupid and evil.

Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Dmitry

https://fortune.com/2022/02/22/india-chip-shortage-semiconductor-manufacturing-crisis-design-solution-rakesh-kumar/

China will help out after they take over TSMC. Will be a great irony when it embargos the West in turn.

Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Blinky Bill