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    From The Guardian: Who's the daddy? Paternity mixed up in cities, study finds Illegitimacy more likely over past 500 years among urban poor, say geneticists Ian Sample Science editor Thu 14 Nov 2019 12.15 The Romans had a phrase that summed it up nicely: mater semper certa est, pater semper incertus est. The mother is...
  • Here are some good numbers from recent studies:

    Contemporary Germany: 1% From checking for HLA type in medical cases.

    contemporary Switzerland: 0.83%

    Contemporary Iceland 1.49% (from DeCode)

    Contemporary Dogon, in Mali. Mildly polygynous. : 1.8%

    The caveat about past numbers, which I was foolishly waiting for someone else to mention, is that in the old days, bastards died like flies.

    • Replies: @J
    @gcochran

    Everybody in this conversation assumes that non-paternity means adultery. In fact, about 15% of couples these days are infertile, and "adopt" a good-looking friend's sperm. Presumably, before pennicilin, infertility rates were higher, there were even "pockets" of sterility in Africa mostly. Men are secretly obsessed by potential non-paternity and spend time wondering if the child looks like them. I have many maternity-ward hours in my CV and the first thing the family comments is how the baby has the exact looks of the father! to reassure the happy father of his paternity. In such a paranoid atmosphere, Jewish women (and men) are most careful. Uniquely, in Israel the Rabbinate has mashgihim = religious supervisors in every IVF process. Conclusion: In stable middle-class societies, there may be LESS than 1% cheating. East Asian, North European villages were closeknit and stable. Yet I may be too naive and everybody was/is having great fun outside.

  • @AnotherDad
    Another--i'll grant obvious--point here, is that most women historically had much less opportunity and motivation for ex-martial relations.

    Oppotunity:
    -- Most work was in the household, on the farm, in the shop. Husbands were not away at work during the day, much less away for business trips.
    -- And even if your husband was out in the fields or working at a neighbors all day, children were around. You weren't alone as in the 1.5 kids off at the local public school of today.
    -- Women did not have the mobility they have. No automobiles. No easy way--and certainly not anonymous way--to shoot over to a hotel or someone's home.
    -- There was no anonymity in rural or small town environment--the norm for most people. Walking over to some neighbor's house or some neighbor man coming to your house would be seen.
    -- Your prospective lover will be worried about the consequences of getting caught, which could easily be death. And even if not, would be severe in rural/small town community.

    Motivation:
    -- Most people had religious faith, and adultery was a mortal sin.
    -- As noted above in any rural or small town environment--the norm for most people--there was no anonymity. So extra-martial relations--of any extent--will likely be found out. And social shame and its impact on your life and happiness would be profound in this environment.
    --There were no government benies to support you, no divorce rape and no soft jobs sitting at a desk with heat and AC. Furthermore there was often father custody. So adultery potentially pulls the economic rug out from under oneself, plus potentially loses one's kids. Very, very different than today.
    -- The media wasn't a constant source promoting entitlement, self-accualization, partner fault-finding and "greener pastures".

    The only powerful motivator i know of that would work against that for many women would be to have children--if a woman was not having children and suspected that her husband was to blame. Divorce might be possible in Protestant nations, but would still be scandalous. And would not leave her as a great marriage prospect--especially as her own fertility would be the usual cause. Lack of children might be enough to motivate some women to find out if there husband was the cause.

    But overall, the opportunities were much less and the consequences much greater. So i would surmise that cuckoldry was considerably less common in the past than today. So whatever rate you believe is common now--it was a fraction of that then.

    Replies: @gcochran

    since we have done both this-generation and long-term, many-generations studies, we know that the numbers are about the same.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad
    @gcochran


    since we have done both this-generation and long-term, many-generations studies, we know that the numbers are about the same.
     
    Greg, do you have a good current study in mind? The only one i saw referenced here in the comments was the French one Emila referenced with the 2.8% figure. (Which is high relative to the past study and strikes me as high for actual US marriages.)

    It strikes me that the contemporary environment is much more like the "urban poor" environment of the past--with the modestly higher cuckholdry values in this study--in terms of annonimity/opportunity.

    But at the same time, i think there are some modern factors that suppress both cuckholdry and even more so cuckholdry leading to bastardry.

    I think there are a few big factors that keep the modern cuckhold bastardy rate low:
    -- Divorce. If a women is tired of her husband and wants excitment she can dump him.
    -- Birth control. Women don't have many kids and those are planned and usual occur early in the marriage by mutual plan when the couple still has a lot of the feelings that led to marriage. Women generally aren't going to have a kid when they are screwing around unless they decide to do so ... in which case ... why not divorce?
    -- Selection. With social breakdown, marriage has become ever more the preserve of the "ducks in a row" people, who are more conscientious and committed to the project. I think in the just-shacking-up category you'd find a higher figure.
    -- DNA testing. Women really aren't going to get away with it today. You're basically going to blow up your marriage and *not* have the guy paying child support. (Although some state laws are very abusive, put on time limits, etc. etc.)


    My overall take:
    -- In terms of anonymity/opportunity the modern environment is much more like the "urban poor" environment of the past (that had high bastardry rate.
    -- In terms of motivation, the modern environment with the decline of religion and modern media is much more encouraging to women to cheat.

    But
    -- Divorce is much more common, socially acceptable and economically non-disastrous so women who are unhappy with their spouse can just ... leave.
    -- Marriage is much more the province of those who want to be in it both because of ease of divorce and because it is now optional and becoming the preserve of more conscientious middle class people.
    -- Birth control allows cuckholding women to suppress the chance of bastardry. (Which would be caught by DNA tests.)

    My guess is that these roughly balance out. I would guess that there is more modern cuckholdry--certainly if you include cheating in "partner" relationships and not just marriages. But that there is still very little actual bastardry--again especially inside actual legal marriages.

    Replies: @Emilia

  • @Reg Cæsar
    @gcochran


    So show me – but you can’t.

     

    But you can show me. I'm sure there has been more than one study of paternity, and they would differ, even if only marginally, and there must be a range of figures. So what is the high figure? And if we discount the highest and lowest result, as they do in the Olympics, what do we have left for a range?

    American Renaissance once worked out that a black male teenager in Chicago was 777 times as likely to be murdered as was an elderly woman in rural Austria. But we're supposed to believe that the boy's baby-momma is no more likely to cheat on him than die alte Frau is on her husband? That's counterintuitive.

    If one population can have a murder conviction rate 20 times that of an adjacent population, as was the case in 2011 with blacks and Asians in Chicago, why is it incredible that one population's cuckoldry rate might also be a large multiple of another's?

    It's those who claim they're the same who should be asked to present evidence.

    Replies: @gcochran

    The last one of blacks, that I’m aware of, was in 1957. 10%, like I said. Highly dated – old techniques.

    For Europeans, less than 2%.

    I couod swear that I already said all this. Something about this topic clouds men’s minds.

    • Replies: @Neil Templeton
    @gcochran

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qbtdqmcz8hY

    Many topics cloud the mind of a man. One wonders why we spend time on the topic of behavioral differences of whites and blacks at all. Almost certainly minds are matched on the topic. Dozens of television serials and Hollywood pics have mined the ore. Maybe we should move on to pressing matters.

    , @TWS
    @gcochran

    You remind them regularly. I suspect some aspect of this triggers the readership here. Guys like Whiskey, he can't help himself but others should know better. Perhaps it fills in some boxes that confirm their secret world view.

  • @Reg Cæsar
    @gcochran


    The study he referred to does not exist. It is an urban legend.

     

    Well, it got past a major publisher thirty or so years ago.

    And do you really believe adulterine bastardy, or cuckoldry, is below one percent even in the worst American ghettoes?

    Now that's an extraordinary claim!

    Replies: @Emilia, @gcochran

    So show me – but you can’t.

    Baker & Bellis built careers around another similar (but even more dramatic) imaginary study.

    Is nonpaternity a lot higher in slum blacks? I know of only one half-decent publication on that , a long time ago, and there the number was indeed 10%. Needs to be redone: won’t be.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @gcochran


    So show me – but you can’t.

     

    But you can show me. I'm sure there has been more than one study of paternity, and they would differ, even if only marginally, and there must be a range of figures. So what is the high figure? And if we discount the highest and lowest result, as they do in the Olympics, what do we have left for a range?

    American Renaissance once worked out that a black male teenager in Chicago was 777 times as likely to be murdered as was an elderly woman in rural Austria. But we're supposed to believe that the boy's baby-momma is no more likely to cheat on him than die alte Frau is on her husband? That's counterintuitive.

    If one population can have a murder conviction rate 20 times that of an adjacent population, as was the case in 2011 with blacks and Asians in Chicago, why is it incredible that one population's cuckoldry rate might also be a large multiple of another's?

    It's those who claim they're the same who should be asked to present evidence.

    Replies: @gcochran

  • @Alden
    @Reg Cæsar

    About 20 years ago the French national health service did the same study with new borns and their parents but with DNA. Results were kept completely confidential. Parents weren’t told the real purpose of the study was to verify paternity Parents were told the purpose was to test for genetic diseases. 10% of the babies were not the children of the man who thought he was their father.

    Replies: @Anon, @Emilia, @gcochran

    Not true, never happened.

  • @Emilia
    @gcochran

    What did he do?

    Replies: @gcochran

    The study he referred to does not exist. It is an urban legend.

    I think it’s interesting how so many people are still sure that cuckoldry was far more common than 1% – even though they are provably wrong.

    There is actually an interesting caveat, but no one here is mentioning it.

    • Replies: @Emilia
    @gcochran

    I suspected as much. Let's see if Anonymous can provide the source for the French study that purportedly found that 10% of French newborns had "fathers" not biologically related to them. We shall see.

    , @Emilia
    @gcochran

    There are always these tales of some researcher doing a study and finding that 10% of individuals involved couldn't be related to the man they call (or called) father, but somehow these studies never manage to get published. Wonder why...

    , @Bardon Kaldian
    @gcochran

    I remember reading about legendary British soap "Coronation street". There, the authors calculated, false paternity/cuckoldry was about 10%.

    While in reality, it was c. 1-2%.

    I don't count cases where husband, for some reasons, knows the child is not his- but, he doesn't care. Judging by looks alone, I would say this is the case with Bill & Chelsea Clinton.

    Replies: @Anonymous

    , @AnotherDad
    @gcochran


    I think it’s interesting how so many people are still sure that cuckoldry was far more common than 1% – even though they are provably wrong.
     
    And 10% of people are homosexuals. "Studies have shown".
    , @Reg Cæsar
    @gcochran


    The study he referred to does not exist. It is an urban legend.

     

    Well, it got past a major publisher thirty or so years ago.

    And do you really believe adulterine bastardy, or cuckoldry, is below one percent even in the worst American ghettoes?

    Now that's an extraordinary claim!

    Replies: @Emilia, @gcochran

    , @Unladen Swallow
    @gcochran

    Jared Diamond referenced it in his book " The Third Chimpanzee ". Going on memory it came across like he knew or met the physician that did the study, I assumed he might be referencing his father, who was a professor at Harvard Medical School. I remember thinking the explanation as to how the doctor knew this seemed a bit murky, but I would have to go back and re-read it to be sure.

    Replies: @Emilia, @Anonymous

    , @anon
    @gcochran

    >There is actually an interesting caveat, but no one here is mentioning it.

    Assume you're speaking of a non-paternity event where the other guy has the same Y-DNA (brother/cousin) and thus isn't counted in these studies.

    What makes it interesting? Do you believe that happens at a high enough frequency to be material to anything? Or is it interesting more in the theoretical sense-- the battle the selfish genes are engaging in. Which wins the push/pull: higher trust with male kin or heavy mate guard/keep 'em at healthy distance.

    , @Emilia
    @gcochran

    Do you actually believe this caveat (here "bastard" having the same meaning as the word "mamzer" for the Jews, not a child born to an unmarried woman but to a married woman and a man other than her husband)?

  • @Anon
    @John Henry


    back six or seven generations
     
    I haven't done the math, but isn't everyone a "cousin" of everyone else in the world at that remove? Except for Andaman Islanders, and Keven Bacon, who isn't related to anyone.

    Replies: @gcochran

    2^7 = 128.

    • LOL: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @Anon
    @gcochran

    Thanks. Calling Dr. Evil.

    You computed the maximum number of great g g g g grandparents, each of whom could have a spouse, children and children-in-law, grandchildren, and so on down and across. Assuming no duplicates, 90 percent marriage, one spouse each, and an average of three children, how many cousins from cousin german through seventh cousins? Extra credit for the number through seventh cousins third removed.

    (This was on the GRE last year.)

  • @Reg Cæsar
    Don't confuse three different issues-- unwed father, unknown father, and false father. Even with the last, the stepfather may know the child isn't his, especially if he marries her quickly to give the child a name, but the neighbors, children, and descendants may not.

    (I was told by a genealogist of French-Canadian that this was common in his community, with a couple's first child. I hope not; my Scottish 3rd-great-grandfather ran off 30 miles to Detroit with his teenage bride.I hope he's still mine.)

    It's reassuring to know that adulterine bastardy-- in which the wife actually cheats and cuckolds her husband-- is that rare. But just 11 generations back, everyone has 1,024 ancestral couples (some repeated). That means around ten of them will have this-- pardon the expression-- issue.

    Someone researching blood tests in a major US city in the 1950s discovered to his horror that 10% of the children in his study could not have been the children of their putative fathers. (Which means that even more would not, in cases where there was no blood-group conflict.) He decided to bury his study.

    But my guess is that these data came from the sketchier precincts of that city. And not long after the war.

    Replies: @Lot, @gcochran, @Anonymous, @Alden, @Bardon Kaldian

    No, he didn’t.

    • Replies: @Emilia
    @gcochran

    What did he do?

    Replies: @gcochran

  • There were small bands of uncontacted Aboriginals wandering the wastelands of Australia into the 1980s. Here's the interesting story of the Pintupi 9 from the BBC: The day the Pintupi Nine entered the modern world By Alana Mahony Kiwirrkurra 23 December 2014 In 1984 a group of Australian Aboriginal people living a traditional nomadic life...
  • @AnotherDad
    @Kratoklastes


    I’ve never been genuinely fat, but it’s a very ‘American’ thing to reach for the idiot’s simple “they must be lazy and gluttonous” explanation.
     
    Except it's correct.

    Look, all the genetic and metabolic differences are a given. It isn't CICO. People's metabolisms adjust. And people's metabolisms and reactions to various foods are not identical. (We all know the guy who can eat like a horse and stay thin.) All granted.

    But bottom line: your weight and fitness is under your control.

    You can't just make yourself grow taller. You can't fix that bald spot. You can't turn your brown eyes blue. But your weight is entirely up to you.

    Sure it's way *easier* for some people to maintain a healthy weight than it is for other people. Being thin is not a sign of virtue. But being fat is a sign that that person does--for whatever reason--not want to make the effort to not be fat. (I've been carrying an extra 10 since my early 50s. Why? Because i haven't made it priority to not be carrying an extra 10. I've chosen to live looking like this rather than working to be more fit and attractive.)

    I remember what people looked like in the 60s. Americans have become ridiculously fatter during the last 50 years. Their genetics didn't radically change. They aren't "supposed" to look like they do. What's changed: Lots of cheap carbs, ubiquitously available, huge portions and more sedentary lifestyles, less work, more sitting on the ass in front of screens. (Like i'm doing now.) This is all "environment". And all controllable by individual will. The food doesn't leap into our mouths. We aren't tied down in from of the screen.

    Replies: @gcochran, @Neil Templeton, @obwandiyag, @Stealth

    Lab animals have also been getting fatter. “What’s more, the increased body weights and increased likelihood of obesity were found even in animals whose diets and physical activity levels were known to be the same throughout the study period.”

    https://www.the-scientist.com/daily-news/animals-are-getting-fatter-too-42960

    • Replies: @JMcG
    @gcochran

    A very quick search looks like hormonal birth control might be a contender. A very quick search, mind you.

  • 100 years ago in the New York Times: In Einstein's General Theory of Relativity, he said he couldn't prove his theory was true, but ... here were some experiments that other scientists could do that potentially could disprove his theory. The first such experiment was carried out by Arthur Eddington during the 1919 solar eclipse:...
  • General relativity is an exact, deterministic theory. Equating it with philosophical relativism is like equating lightning and lightning bugs, only dumber.

    Falsification? Kepler was trying to figure out the orbit of Mars – but his attempt didn’t fit Tycho’s observations, which Kepler knew to be accurate. So, false, and back to the drawing board.

    • Agree: Coag, Buzz Mohawk
    • Replies: @nebulafox
    @gcochran

    Einstein didn't like quantum mechanics precisely because it went against his orderly, deterministic view of the universe.

    He wasn't the only scientific genius to not accept later inventions.

    Replies: @Charon, @Gerhard Grasruck

  • A curious question is: Why did selective breeding in agriculture show enormous successes here and there -- e.g., corn in prehistoric Mexico, the breeding of much larger horses from the chariot ponies of the Bronze Age to the huge horses that could carry medieval knights in shining armor -- but ... nobody seemed to have...
  • @prime noticer
    important to note that this horse system probably reached theoretical maximum in the 70s, with only very small and incremental improvements since then. the horse field today is probably slightly faster horse for horse than the horses from the 70s, but the fastest few horses are not.

    thus it's probably fair to extrapolate this process to any other mammal, including humans. such that you could say, if you deliberately control who has sex with who, you could probably max out humans for whatever traits you wanted, within a known number of generations.

    horse generations are shorter, so it would take longer with people, but you could probably get there in 200 years at most, 10 generations, as long as you were more efficient than the horse breeder guys.

    this seems to happen faster than with plants. you can read all the work that agriculture guys have been doing for over 100 years in their farm labs, and the grains they produce are still slowly getting better, after many more generations than with animals. with farm animals, there's lots of incentive and pressure to make cows and hogs and chickens better, but i'm less clear on how much effect drugs are having on them versus breeding better animals in the first place. although it's true agriculture yields are also improved by chemicals. crop yield per acre depends a lot on chemicals.

    Replies: @gcochran

    Progress in thoroughbreds was limited, in part, by small effective population size. You don’t have to do that.

  • Here's a new paper in Nature on inbreeding depression: it's bad. Don't marry your first cousin. (Here's my 2003 article "Cousin Marriage Conundrum.") A sample size of > 1.4 million ... James Lee et al's 2018 GWAS on educational attainment was the first genetic study I can remember with a 7 digit sample size. Now...
  • @Morton's toes
    With hindsight we know the inbreeding of the Hapsburgs, Romanavs, et al was a horrible idea. Does anybody know the first time a biologist or biologist-adjacent scientist floated the idea that they might be doing themselves in with this bloodline preoccupation? Obviously it was not obvious to them in 1500.

    How soon after 6 November 1661 did people realize that this was going to get ugly?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_II_of_Spain

    Replies: @gcochran

    Every animal breeder knew.

  • This essay by 4 academics is supposed to be a thorough debunking of the reality of human biodiversity: Race, genetics and pseudoscience: an explainer Ewan Birney, Jennifer Raff, Adam Rutherford, Aylwyn Scally Human genetics tells us about the similarities and differences between people – in our physical and psychological traits, and in our susceptibility to...
  • @Jack Armstrong
    Dr. Raff has the article posted on her blog — comments are disabled.

    Dr. Raff’s Vita

    CURRICULUM VITAE

    Jennifer A. (Kedzie) Raff

    Department of Anthropology

    University of Kansas



    Education

    2008 Ph.D., Anthropology and Genetics (dual degree), Indiana University,
    Bloomington, IN.

    Dissertation: An Ancient DNA Perspective on the Prehistory of the Lower Illinois Valley

    2008 M.A., Anthropology, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN.

    2001 B.A., Biology and Anthropology (double major): Indiana University, Bloomington, IN.

    Professional Positions

    2015-present Assistant Professor, Department of Anthropology, University of Kansas.

    2013-2015 Research Fellow: Department of Anthropology, University of Texas at Austin

    2011-2013 Postdoctoral Fellow: Division of Endocrinology, Metabolism, and Molecular Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University at Chicago

    2008-2011 Postdoctoral Associate: Department of Anthropology, University of Utah at Salt Lake City

    2002-2008 Graduate Researcher: Departments of Biology and Anthropology, Indiana University at Bloomington

    2001-2002 Research Assistant: Department of Biology, Indiana University at Bloomington

    1997-2001 Undergraduate Research Assistant: Department of Biology, Indiana University at Bloomington
     
    She and her co-articlists are busy on twitter congratulating themselves, and being congratulated by others, on this “explainer”.

    Replies: @gcochran

    I knew people that knew her when she had that postdoc at Utah. She’s not bright.

    • Replies: @Anti-HBD
    @gcochran

    Why does HBD never bother with the claim that races or populations are not coherent genetic entities?
    There is no such thing as Europeans, too much gene flow and admixture, differences are superficial.
    Hence, how can there be systematic differences in such a polygenic trait as intelligence?

    Replies: @syonredux, @MEH 0910, @Neil Templeton, @anon, @MEH 0910, @Spangel

    , @Anti-HBD
    @gcochran

    https://twitter.com/dbweissman/status/1189000014045024256



    Once again, a few examples of local adaptation do not invalidate high gene flow. Nor is lineage sorting an issue for Templeton's analysis.


    Gene flow was always high and did inhibit the kind of selection you are talking about.

    Misrepresenting Fst and writing about traits under selection (as well as thinking the gene genealogies vs population splits is an argument against NCPA) do not change any of that.

    Replies: @res

  • A big chunk of American society has gone nuts over "gender" ideology, which wouldn't be so bad if they weren't trying to do terrible things to children. What kind of new laws do we need to protect children? Perhaps it should be a crime to harm the potential fertility of minors? These days, we strongly...
  • @Jake
    @Dan Hayes

    You could ask the same thing about Jews.

    Queer was very much in among 19th century Prussian (and then united German) military officers. The Nazi Party was founded in a gay bar. Ernst Rohm, Brownshirt leader, was a pederast.

    Satan needs brutal queers and rewards them in this world.

    Replies: @Eric Novak, @gcochran

    Not really.

  • Here's the abstract to a paper that hasn't been released yet: Do Romans today look different from Italians from, say, mountain villages where there was presumably less tu
  • @Alexander Turok
    Cities in antiquity and the Middle Ages were population sinks, Rome's population declined from ~250,000 to ~75,000 after the fall of the Empire, and that population suffered attrition and replacement from the countryside. Cochran has talked about this:

    https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2016/07/22/still-italian/

    Replies: @gcochran

    At the low point, probably << 30,000. I've seen estimates under 10,000.

  • Whereas there are many very well funded projects which study national and international scholastic ability without mentioning intelligence, there is one database for the national intelligence of the countries of the world, and that was put together by one person, unfunded, working in his study. Prof Richard Lynn gathered together the very disparate studies which...
  • @dearieme
    Here's a proposition that could be easily tested in the context of mixed race marriages.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/children-intelligence-iq-mother-inherit-inheritance-genetics-genes-a7345596.html

    Replies: @gcochran

    It’s just false.

  • The three hard science Nobel Prizes -- Physics, Chemistry, and Medicine/Physiology -- have been impressively resistant to the demands of the cult of diversity. Women have made up only 20 of the 607 winners, and I don't believe there's ever been a black winner in the hard sciences. But all good things must come to...
  • @Anatoly Karlin
    Come to think of it #NobelsSoWhite would be like the ultimate racialist humblebrag.

    Another thought: Rate of fundamental scientific discoveries seems to be plummeting (like during Classical to Hellenistic transition in Greece). With fewer unambiguous breakthroughs being made, it should become easier to increase political component of Nobel Prize distribution.

    Replies: @gcochran

    You have the Classical-> Hellenistic trend backwards.

    • Replies: @anonymous
    @gcochran

    not just a trend but a documented and indisputable progression, unless one believes that, say, the Antikythera mechanism (Hellenistic) was not based on then-up-to-date technology but was a one-off reproduction of what would then be centuries old classical technologies - sort of as if we in 2019 were to rebuild the Saturn rockets and millennia hence only the 2019 versions were to survive in memory ..... .
    A similar theme was used by the screenwriters of that movie where Alan Rickman played some poor actor who had been stuck forever in a cheesy science fiction role - Galaxy Quest .... .
    On the other hand, Classical pottery - and not just Classical pottery , in general, but early Classical pottery, specifically ( if I remember correctly a conversation at the Met in 1988 - in front of the then newly acquired masterpiece depicting Thanatos and Hypnos with the body of Sarpedon) - Classical pottery in all its technical details took longer to figure out by the great pottery historians of the 20th and 21st century than Hellenistic pottery did. I could be wrong about that, I don't really know any pottery historians and the journals and scholarly literature are not that reliable. And I forget who it was I was talking to that day in 1988.

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @gcochran

    How so, exactly? Most of the great scientific breakthroughs happened during the Classical period, or the early Hellenistic.

    I just checked with Murray's Human Accomplishment database to make sure. There are 93 eminent Ancient Greeks who turned 40 and/or died before 300 BC, i.e. could no longer be ascribed to the Classical period; of these, 70 are during the Classical period proper, i.e. after 500 BC. Between 300 BC and 1 AD (i.e. who primarily worked in Hellenistic period) there were just 31 eminent figures; moreover, of these, more than half (16) accrued to the the 3rd century BC alone.

    Note that I am talking of scientific breakthroughs - not technological mastery, economic complexity, literacy rates, etc. (All of which were higher during both the Hellenistic period, and for a long time under the Roman Empire as well).

    Replies: @Douglas Knight

  • As I wrote in National Review in 1996 in "How Jackie Robinson Desegregated America," it's easy to track in baseball history the payoff enjoyed by the teams that enthusiastically broke the color line in the 1940s and 1950s and the costs paid by those who didn't, just like economist Gary Becker would have predicted: By...
  • • Replies: @Jack D
    @gcochran

    The problem is that reality is gender (and racially ) biased when it comes to technical skills so if you build an AI that reflects reality (i.e. picks out the better candidates) it is going to be racially biased too. There is no way to build an AI that both ranks candidates effectively and is not race and gender biased - you can have one or the other but not both. Probably the best hope is just to give the AI race and gender quotas or explicit extra AA bonus points. But that's probably illegal and would be bad publicity if it came out too. The SJW warriors won't be happy unless you can train the AI to spot the invisible merit in women and NAMs. If you can't expressly use race or gender maybe you can give the AA candidates extra points for proxy measures such as "adversity" where "adversity" is defined as something that is strongly correlated with race or gender.

    Replies: @AnotherDad

    , @TWS
    @gcochran

    Too bad reality can't match their models. But they can keep modeling real hard, maybe they'll direct that square peg in someday.

  • At West Hunter, Greg Cochran sums up the recent gay genes study: Gay genes Posted on September 23, 2019 by gcochran9 ... The fraction of the variance influenced by these few SNPs is low, less than 1%. The contribution of all common SNPs is larger, estimated to be between 8% and 25%. Still small compared...
  • @Mike1
    It is baffling that people do not know that gay men usually do actually breed. When they have kids they have them young. They are far more sexually active at a young age than heterosexual males. For anyone capable of statistical math having one child early equals having a standard number of children later in life.

    Cochran's explanation doesn't pass the laugh test. The guy is clearly on the spectrum he "knows" the absolute answer to everything.

    Replies: @gcochran

    “For anyone capable of statistical math having one child early equals having a standard number of children later in life.”

    Nope.

    • Replies: @Mike1
    @gcochran

    I'll dumb it down for you:

    Heterosexual female, first child at 15, second at 17, third at 18, fourth at 20 and fifth at 21.

    Risk taking behavior is passed on. Ratio stays the same. By year 36 from birth of subject there are 25 descendants.

    At year 36 many women still are looking for "Mr Right".

    Gay men are often the father of child one (gay men experiment early and often in general). Again, following the behavior pattern, at year 21 this guy can have 5 descendants.

  • Here's a brand new study of racial admixture and IQ scores. From Psych: Global Ancestry and Cognitive Ability Jordan Lasker, Bryan J. Pesta, John G. R. Fuerst and Emil O. W. Kirkegaard * Correspondence: [email protected] Received: 8 June 2019; Accepted: 28 August 2019; Published: 30 August 2019 Abstract: Using data from the Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort,...
  • @res
    @Sam Coulton


    No, you said that “at best”. As if to imply there were good odds that a Jefferson male waan’t the father.
     
    Interesting interpretation, but what I meant was that the most that could be said was that a Jefferson male was the father (and there is some tiny doubt there, but not worth worrying about). And that one could not go beyond that to say Thomas Jefferson in particular was the father.

    And this was AFTER you had previously eliminated Thomas Jefferson as a potential father, based on no evidence of any kind, but an Ann Coulter-tier book.
     
    Where exactly did I do that? At least now I understand why you reacted so strongly to my comments, but I don't see where I ever eliminated Thomas Jefferson as the potential father.

    What? Yes they can, Y-STR can distinguish between even father and son.
     
    In some cases. Which was what my mutation caveats were about. But that appears to happen at a higher rate than I realized (still low though, see below). Here is one paper. BTW, comments like this indicate you do know something. It would be helpful if you would back up your assertions though.

    This looks like a good paper on the topic and actually discusses the Jefferson/Hemings case. Although I think it errs in excluding Randolph's sons from the candidates.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5418305/

    In the paternity dispute of former US President Thomas Jefferson (1743–1826), Y-STR and Y-SNP analysis demonstrated that several currently living male relatives of Thomas Jefferson share the same Y haplotype as a living descendent of Eston Hemings Jefferson, son of Sally Hemings—the President’s African American female slave (except for one repeat difference at one Y-STR, which could be easily explained by a mutation) (Foster et al. 1998). This indicates that President Jefferson had sired Eston Hemings Jefferson, or alternatively, his brother Randolph did; two scenarios such Y-chromosome analysis cannot differentiate. However, living male descendent of Thomas Corbin Woodson, the previously assumed full brother of Eston Hemings Jefferson, showed a very different Y haplotype, indicating that his biological father was a different man (Foster et al. 1998).
     
    Note that only 1 Y-STR mutation was seen across multiple people and all of those generations. So in only one of all of those father-son relationships would it have been possible to differentiate them using the data in the 1998 paper.

    Back to you.

    It then went on to dispell the notion that they visited regularly and that anyone but Jefferson is the father.
     
    Yes. The first report is clearly in the TJ is the father camp. I note that you did not engage with the second report which presents the not-TJ arguments.

    Incorrect; the same standard of proof is used daily in the United States to establish paternity. Thomas Jefferson is the father of Eston, it’s 100% proven.
     
    No. Let me repeat part of the quote from the 2017 paper I linked above titled: Forensic use of Y-chromosome DNA: a general overview
    Emphasis mine.

    This indicates that President Jefferson had sired Eston Hemings Jefferson, or alternatively, his brother Randolph did; two scenarios such Y-chromosome analysis cannot differentiate.
     
    I am assuming Manfred Kayser (author of that paper) knows rather more than either of us about what can and cannot be done with Y chromosome data. But feel free to present different opinions from actual experts on the topic. Until then consider your "100% proven" statement decisively refuted.

    Your entire post relies on long quotes of no relevance and whimpy cries of “ad hominem”, as if to camouflage a mere two points of your own: that Thomas Jefferson was 65 when Eston was born and that another Hemmijgs descendant’s family refuses DNA testing: hardly evidence of any kind against his paternity.
     
    OK. You completely ignored the meatiest part of my comment (why doesn't that surprise me?) so let's be very explicit about it. The following reference presents the best case arguing the not-TJ position. I have already disproven your "100% proven" statement, but if you want to continue arguing a weaker version of that then please read this and address its points.

    Here is the full excerpt from my earlier comment. You can hardly call this 'long quotes of no relevance and whimpy cries of “ad hominem”'. Well, I suppose, with the standards of proof you operate by, maybe you could, but you'd be wrong.

    The second (and most recent) report was released as a book in 2011: https://www.amazon.com/Jefferson-Hemings-Controversy-Report-Scholars-Commission/dp/0890890854
    Here are the first 15 pages: https://cap-press.com/pdf/1179.pdf
    An overview from Amazon:

    In 2000, the newly formed Thomas Jefferson Heritage Society asked a group of more than a dozen senior scholars from across the country to carefully examine all of the evidence for and against the allegations that Thomas Jefferson fathered one or more children by Sally Hemings, one of his slaves, and to issue a public report. In April 2001, after a year of study, the Scholars Commission issued the most detailed report to date on the issue. With but a single mild dissent, the views of the distinguished panel ranged from ”serious skepticism” to a conviction that the allegation was ”almost certainly false.” This volume, edited by Scholars Commission Chairman Robert F. Turner, includes the ”Final Report”–essentially a summary of arguments and conclusions–as it was released to the press on April 12, 2001. However, several of the statements of individual views–which collectively total several hundred carefully footnoted pages and constitute the bulk of the book–have been updated and expanded to reflect new insights or evidence since the report was initially released.
     
    I looked harder and found this page which links to a 40 page summary from the book: https://www.tjheritage.org/the-scholars-commission
    It’s not possible to cut and paste from that, but I suggest at minimum looking at the final paragraph on page 18.
     
    In short, the best evidence is in
    https://www.tjheritage.org/scholars-commission-pdf
    If you want to continue this conversation please go read it and engage with the arguments presented there.

    Replies: @Sam Coulton, @gcochran

    Topday, one could probably resolve the issue.

    Step 2: sequence the Y chromosomes ( entire sequence, not just STRs)

    Step 1: dig up Thomas Jefferson

    • Replies: @mikemikev
    @gcochran

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/14/lock-of-hair-taken-from-thomas-jeffersons-the-third-us-president/

    Replies: @res

    , @res
    @gcochran

    Wouldn't you need to dig up Randolph Jefferson (and perhaps his sons) as well? Being 5 generations away from the paternity question makes things complicated. How much full sequence Y variation is typically seen between brothers or between father/son?

    Being able to analyze DNA from William Hemings (grandson of Sally Hemings) would make things easier: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madison_Hemings#Jefferson%E2%80%93Hemings_controversy
    and provide evidence from another child of Sally Hemings (Madison has no living male line descendants).

    Relevant quote from that page:


    There are no living male-line descendants of Madison Hemings. Beverley Hemings' descendants have been lost to history, as he apparently changed his name after moving to Washington, DC and passing into white society. Descendants of Madison Hemings declined to have the remains of his son William Hemings disturbed to extract DNA for testing (he was buried in a VA cemetery), just as Wayles-Jefferson descendants declined to have Thomas Jefferson's remains disturbed.[23]
     
    I know you are knowledgeable about things like this so would enjoy hearing your thoughts in more detail.

    P.S. This link appears above, but since Figure 1 contains some relevant pedigrees I think it is worth repeating.
    https://www.mcdb.ucla.edu/Research/Goldberg/HC70A_W04/pdf/Foster_Nature_1998.pdf
  • Recently Bret Stephens in the New York Times melted down over a little joke on Twitter about bed bugs. Meanwhile, in the Washington Post, Max Boot wonders if all his hard work will go for nought: Will no one rid me of this turbulent President? Look, it wasn't this hard to start the Iraq War,...
  • @Jack D
    @AnotherDad

    I really don't think that you, as a Founding Stock type person, fully appreciate how grave an insult "go back to where you came from" is to a non-Founding Stock person. It's not the same as saying "go to Hell". It is an attempt to negate the person's entire life in this country, in effect to label them an n-word or a 2nd class citizen.

    This is what the Left is getting at when they talk about "white privilege" - it is exactly that lack of ability to understand the full implications of your words or deeds because your birth puts you in a situation where it can never apply to you - "Hey, what's the big deal?" that enrages non-whites so much. In the past, people used to have the same attitude toward calling people the n-word or a fag, etc. - why it's no different than calling someone an idiot - no harm is intended.

    While it is sometimes useful to be able to push people's hot buttons like when I joke about certain white ethnic groups perhaps loving the bottle a little too much, you have to know when you are going too far. Our beloved Buffalo Joe apparently reached his tipping point over just such an issue.

    Replies: @William Badwhite, @peterike, @black sea, @LoutishAngloQuebecker, @gcochran, @Art Deco, @anon

    Split the difference: Boot should go half-way back to where he came from.

  • Here's a brand new study of racial admixture and IQ scores. From Psych: Global Ancestry and Cognitive Ability Jordan Lasker, Bryan J. Pesta, John G. R. Fuerst and Emil O. W. Kirkegaard * Correspondence: [email protected] Received: 8 June 2019; Accepted: 28 August 2019; Published: 30 August 2019 Abstract: Using data from the Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort,...
  • @The Alarmist
    @Counterinsurgency

    The hacks use a 0.8°C change over 150 years to determine the planet will be doomed if we don't do something.

    Never mind that 0.8°C is not statistically significant in a fair sample. In @Peter Johnson world, you just get a lot of data points so you can have a very low but "statistically significant" correlation coefficient.

    Yeah, I'm old... I can still use a slide rule to calculate an orbit. I didn't have the luxury of false precision.

    Replies: @gcochran

    Sure it’s significant.

    • Replies: @Wizard of Oz
    @gcochran

    Interesting that you may be seriously interested in the AGW arguments. Or are you just saying that it is worth looking for the causes of that 0.8 degrees (or more?) because it clearly isn't a random phenomenon like most weather? Have you had a look at the IPCCs many models? Do you regard any of them as scarily good?

  • @The Alarmist

    The correlation within the self-identified blacks between IQ and European ancestry is positive but quite small (r = 0.09)
     
    When you look at things like this, you need to test whether or not this is statistically significant from zero; it likely is not.

    When r<= 0.3, a linear correlation is generally considered to not exist. There may be a nonlinear correlation, or there may by a confounding variable that needs to be taken into account. In any case, correlation cannot safely be assumed to imply causation.

    Replies: @gcochran, @Counterinsurgency, @Peter Johnson

    Nonsense. Go read many books.

    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    @gcochran

    Your comment has less signal-to-noise than a correlation with r=0.09.

  • iSteve commenter Lot looks ahead: 2044: Mayor Dante de Blasio announced at to
  • @Buzz Mohawk
    @SunBakedSuburb

    In Dan Brown's novel, Inferno, someone creates a virus that randomly sterilizes one-third of humanity to reign in population growth.

    It must have been the zeitgeist, because I had the same idea months before the book was published -- but the virus was designed to be choosy in what kinds of humans it would sterilize. Many other people must have thought of the same thing. It's probably appeared in lots of science fiction stories over the years.

    One wonders if this is possible, and shudders to think of the consequences if anyone were to have such power.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @Hunsdon, @gcochran, @dux.ie, @Kronos

    It’s possible.

  • News about America's rapidly growing Slavery Crisis was more than four times Fitter to Print in 2018 than in 2012, according to the New York Times.
  • @Jack D
    @anonymous


    Blacks should be repatriated back to Africa.
     
    This was the solution that was proposed virtually from Day 1 and it was never workable even then and it sure isn't now after 400 years. You can't send American Blacks "back" to Africa because they have never been there. Most of them are 30%+ white - should you send 70% of their bodies to Africa and the rest to Europe? Africa is vast and American blacks are all mixed up now. If we decided to send the Irish back to "Europe" would it make sense to send them to Greece? What if you are a typical American Irish-Italian-German hybrid - where do they send you?

    For better or for worse, we are stuck with black people. It was America's original sin to drag them over here, but we're stuck with them now.

    Any solution to any problem has to start with an accurate diagnosis before you can apply the cure. Unfortunately, we live in an age where the opposite is true. Society and government start from the premise that all racial gaps are due to racism (and in fact race doesn't even exist and has no genetic basis at all). This is like believing that disease is caused by an excess of bad humors in the blood - the "cure" that then follows (bleeding the patient) is of course wrong too. As is the case with many failing causes, lack of empirical proof or success only causes the proponents to double down even more. E. German academic journals were expounding on the validity of Marxist-Leninist economic theory right up until the day that the Berlin Wall fell. As the doubts grew, any dissenting voices were repressed all the more. But if you attempt to posit a different or genetic cause then you are a "racist" and beyond the pale of polite society. As long as this situation prevails, there's really no hope for a solution.

    What would a realistic solution look like? It would start with a realistic appraisal of black strengths (and weaknesses) and propensity toward violence. There is a small % of black people who are intelligent and calm enough (Obama, although not actually African American is their poster boy) to thrive in white society on equal terms. The rest need a much more structured environment than what is currently being offered (until they end up in prison, where things are REALLY structured). Ideally this structure would come from within the black community itself, since people hate taking orders from outsiders. Black education (for those who do not show mainstream intellectual talent at an early age) would be aimed more at blacks strengths in the kinetic, improvisational, musical, athletic and visio-spatial realm because they are never going to learn material with a high level of abstraction anyway. How you could get jobs for 13% of the population out of this, I can't say, but what we are doing now is just throwing $ down the drain for the 1/2 or more of blacks who just don't have the intellectual HP to benefit from an education in abstract concepts.

    Replies: @gcochran, @frankie p, @AnotherDad

    On visuospatial tasks, blacks do about a standard deviation worse than whites.

  • Is it to have lots of new farmland in case of massive Global Warming? Trump Greenland Greens Golf Club? My brother-in-law played in an annual Fourth of July Air Force golf tournament at Thule Air Force Base that is played over the rocks on Mount Dundas. Is it to terrify the Russians by being able...
  • @Cato
    @Peter Frost

    Back in the 1970s, when I spent a summer in Newfoundland, I met plenty of people who had hoped that the former colony would join the US, rather than Canada.

    Replies: @gcochran

    There’s a suspicion that the referendum on joining Canada was rigged, in order to prevent that.

  • From the New York Times oped page: By the way, today is the 49th anniversary of the August 7, 1970 Marin County Courthouse Massacre in which Angela Davis' boyfriend George Jackson tried to shoot his way out of jail, murdering a judge, apparently with firearms supplied by Professor Davis: From Wikipedia: Here's the judge with...
  • @Sean
    @Daniel H

    Davis did nothing for Jackson except get him killed by indulging his kid brothers comic book ideas. His lawyer Fay Stender (who edited Jackson's gibberish into Soledad Brother book) then quit as Jackson's lawyer after getting into a shouting match with him when he demanded she bring him in
    guns and explosives had realised that he was a lot less well endowed in the mental department. Davis could not see past his physical appeal but according to Stender his plans after a break ohe was violent anti white terrorism


    Jackson ordered Rubico to open all the cells and along with several other inmates he overpowered the remaining correction officers and took them, along with two inmates, hostage. Five other hostages, officers Jere Graham, Frank DeLeon and Paul Krasnes, along with two white prisoners, were killed and found in Jackson's cell. Three other officers, Rubico, Kenneth McCray, and Charles Breckenridge, were also shot and stabbed, but survived.[17] After finding the keys for the Adjustment Center's exit, Jackson along with fellow inmate and close friend Johnny Spain escaped to the yard where Jackson was shot dead from a tower and Spain surrendered.[18][19] Jackson was killed just three days prior to the start of his murder trial for the 1970 killing of officer John Mills.[19]
     
    Eddie Bunker, who was inside along with Jackson, said was responsible for starting purely racially targeted killings inside prison, and that as a good looking man draped in chains he must have stirred powerful emotions in Davis.

    Stender committed suicide after being left incapacitated and in constant pain from a murder attempt years later that a lot of her friends suspected was set up by a Hispanic female paralegal with links to the Johnson's Black Guerilla family gang.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @njguy73, @gcochran

    Fay Stender made me laugh.

  • Greg Cochran has a very funny review of Angela Saini's review in Nature of a book about race and sports. Her piece is in response to my derisive review of Saini's Science Denialist book Superior: The Return of Race Science: My impression is that Saini is a ladylike Indian lady with a husband and a...
  • @BengaliCanadianDude
    @istevefan

    No different from other Lebanese Shia or Sunni Muslims. Or Druze. Their genetic makeup is pretty uniform, and not dependent on religion. Muslims in Lebanon have the same amount of Phoneician in them. Similar can be said about many Palestinians, Jordanians and Syrians

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-phoenicians-dna/in-lebanon-dna-may-yet-heal-rifts-idUSL0559096520070910

    https://stepfeed.com/dna-tests-prove-lebanese-are-direct-descendants-of-ancient-phoenicians-8777

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @gcochran

    It _is_ dependent upon religion. ” Lebanese Christians and all Druze cluster together, and Lebanese Muslims are extended towards Syrians, Palestinians, and Jordanians, which are close to Saudis and Bedouins. ” The Moslems also have more, and more recent, sub-saharan African admixture.

    • Replies: @BengaliCanadianDude
    @gcochran

    I mean even the Lebanese scientist disagrees with you. Muslim Lebanese don't look different from their Christian counterparts. It literally says in the articles that the difference between them is linguistic, and/or cultural

  • From Nature: I don't actually know what this headline means other than: Angela Saini No Like! Angela Saini assesses a book examining how bad science lingers. Angela Saini 23 JULY 2019 Kenyan athletes are often subject to debate over their supposed genetic advantage at distance running. Skin Deep: Journeys in the Divisive Science of Race...
  • @Corvinus
    There have been studies that have NOTICED the biological angle regarding the differences in black and white athletes.

    https://www.livescience.com/10716-scientists-theorize-black-athletes-run-fastest.html

    We also know that environment plays an integral role as well. Kenya has won an astonishing 63 medals at the Olympic Games in races of 800m and above (21 gold!), since 1968. It turns out it is not Kenya as a whole that usually emerged victorious, but individuals from a region in the Rift Valley called Nandi. So context matters here, since an argument could be made that distance running is a Nandi phenomenon. The success of “black” distance running is concentrated in a decidedly small area, with the vast majority of the continent under-represented.

    
When it comes to the sprints, why has Africa not dominated? The combined forces of several nations (e.g. Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Ivory Coast, Togo, Niger, Benin, Mali, the Gambia, Ghana, Gabon, Senegal) have not won a single sprinting medal (to my knowledge) at the Olympics or World Championships; rather, it has been the Jamaicans and the Americans.

    Just because some black people are good (or bad) at something does not imply that black people in general will be good (or bad) at something. Training, funding, and past success ALL play a role here.

    Is there not far more genetic variation WITHIN than BETWEEN racial groups?

    Replies: @MarkinLA, @gcochran

    When the average of some trait differs between two groups, the fraction of the higher group exceeding a high threshold can be very much larger. This can go so far that single families from the high-average group can, at the highest level, out-compete whole nations.

    • Agree: BB753
  • From the Babylon Bee:
  • @anonymous
    there is zero chance we went to the moon because neither we nor the russians can do it 50 years later. not only can we not do it we are not CLOSE to even beginning to think up a way to do it. it is not a question of money. we have no feasible theoretical plan regardless of budget, full stop.


    hilarious how enraging this obvious fact is to the eternal child boomer.

    moronic child boomers like gregory cochran will jump in and say some irrelevant bullshit like ancient greek math/science was beyond that of 5th century dutchmen or whatever. complete non-sequitur unless greg would like to say a 1969 chevy is more technically advanced than a 2019 tesla.

    we haven't lost shit; all of the tech is better and we aren't close *to knowing how to do it*. stop the lies about "not wanting to spend the money."

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @gcochran, @Anonymous

    My uncle was the CFO for Boeing Aerospace: earlier ran the Michoud plant for a while,where they built the first stage of the Saturn V.

    There’s not much to the Moon landing, technically: get a big enough rocket, have the third stage push the capsule into a lunar orbit. Landing and returning to lunar orbit is easy with 1/6th gravity.

    Hardest part was the hydrogen-oxygen second stage. Very nice specific impulse, but tricky to work with.

    • Replies: @PhysicistDave
    @gcochran

    gcochran wrote:


    There’s not much to the Moon landing, technically: get a big enough rocket, have the third stage push the capsule into a lunar orbit. Landing and returning to lunar orbit is easy with 1/6th gravity.
     
    Yeah, except you are sitting on top of a controlled explosion. A little thing goes awry, and you're dead.

    Despite being fascinated by the space program, as a second-grader in 1962 I wrote an essay on why I did not want to be an astronaut: basically, I mentioned all the ways you could die.

    I did, as an adult, work in the aerospace industry, on satellite-communication systems. Fascinating work technically, and much safer than being exploded into outer space.
    , @Anonymous
    @gcochran

    steve says the problem is the one BILLION dollars it would take.


    did i miss something? or have we given boeing and nasa and tons of other people a lot more than one billion dollars in the last 50 years of never leaving low earth orbit?


    this argument is literally insane. "nobody cares about space, we could do it if we wanted." i might believe that russia doesnt care about space or have the budget or whatever in some alternate universe where russia doesn't have a space program. but in this universe russia apparently *does* care and they have simply repeatedly sent rockets into space for the last 50 years, built space stations, etc. they are the space leader as elon musk will remind people: we have to hitch rides on russian rockets. which we do, in fact.

    in this universe its not possible to argue we just don't "care" or "spend money" on space. we do go to space--just not all the way to the moon.


    if the problem is we've "already done it" then what is russia's problem? surely it's not "they don't care." that country is certainly a piece of shit with budget problems but nonetheless they go out of their way to build rockets to go to space. i'm pretty sure they would love to put a russian flag on the moon since they haven't done it yet. they would make the budgetary sacrifice. i'm not really speculating here since, again, in this universe we know that russia has cared enough to spend a shitload of time and money on its space program over the last 70 years. why not go to the moon once if youre russia and you haven't done it? a billion dollars is not the issue.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

  • From the Daily Beast: Jeffrey Epstein’s Sick Story Played Out for Years in Plain Sight How did the New York financier stay nearly untouchable for decades? Vicky Ward—who has reported extensively on Epstein, and on efforts to rehabilitate him—finds out what’s changed.Vicky Ward Updated 07.09.19 1:52PM ET Published 07.09.19 4:35AM ET For almost two decades,...
  • @Mr. Anon
    There are copies of Epstein's "little black book" floating around on the internet.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-08/shtf-lets-revisit-jeffrey-epsteins-little-black-book

    https://www.bleedingcool.com/2019/07/09/former-marvel-comics-jeffrey-epstein-little-black-book/

    It was stolen in 2009 by the Alfredo Rodriguez, the butler at one of Epstein's properties. Rodriguez hoped to sell it to a media outlet, but was caught and convicted of obstruction of justice and sent to prison where he died after a "long illness". Interestingly, the lead police detective who investigated Epstein in Palm Beach died last year, at the age of 50, after a short illness. Proximity to Epstein seems to cause illness.

    The book contains a lot of names, as you would expect for a well-connected New York billionaire, or even "billionaire". Kennedys (lots of em', including Ted), Shrivers, Pritzkers, Edgar Bronfman Jr., John Kerry, George Mitchell, Henry Kissinger, Mick Jagger, Murray Gell-Mann, Alan Dershowitz, Courtney Love, Ehud Barak, Tony Blair, David Koch, Candace Bushnell, Michael Bloomberg, plus a bunch of actors like Ralph Fiennes, John Cleese, and Minnie Driver, and others. A "Paul Allan" is listed - maybe that's the "Paul Allen" (other names in the book are mispelled) or maybe not. No Clintons are in the book, but Cheryl Mills - Hillary's consigliere over the last few years - is.

    Epstein ostensibly had a variety of interests outside of his sybaritic pursuits, science reputedly being one of them, so that might explain some of the egg-heads on the list. And it's not that strange that a billionaire living in New York City would have the mayor's personal number. Many people on the list - perhaps most of them - were probably not involved in his kink and perhaps didn't even know about it.

    But I reckon some of them did.

    His story is rather odd too. He dropped out of college, yet got a job teaching calculus and physics at The Dalton School, which I gather is a prestigious prep school in New York City. He was hired into that job by Donald Barr, the father of the current US Attorney General, William Barr. Epstein was then hired by the father of one of his pupils to work at Bear Stearns, and eventually impressed Leslie Wexner enough to become his financial guru, or something.

    Perhaps Epstein is one of those spies in the entrepreneurial style, like Maxwell or Sidney Reilly, who was a spy, conman, war profiteer, and probably a murderer.

    Replies: @Sean, @gcochran, @anon, @backup

    “He was hired into that job by Donald Barr, the father of the current US Attorney General, William Barr.”

    !

    • Replies: @Dave Pinsen
    @gcochran

    https://twitter.com/thespandrell/status/1148964885595906049?s=21

  • Perhaps the biggest hot potato question that will likely soon be answerable due to rapid advances in doing DNA scans on ancient skeletons is: Who is more closely related genetically to the Hebrews of the Old Testament: Israeli Jews or Palestinians? Geneticist David Reich of Harvard is a wise man, so he has made clear...
  • @Charles Erwin Wilson
    @Jack D

    Might makes right Jack? Really? If you are right, what do we need civilization for?

    Replies: @gcochran

    If the Israelis lost to some Arab state or coalition, that would be right too. Right?

    • Replies: @frankie p
    @gcochran

    "When" the Israelis lose to some Arab state or coalition,...

    Not "If" the Israelis lose to some Arab state or coalition...

  • @Dave Pinsen
    @gcochran

    Wikipedia:


    An Arabic compendium of Meteorology, called al-'Athar al-`Ulwiyyah (Arabic: الآثار العلوية‎) and produced c. 800 CE by the Antiochene scholar Yahya ibn al-Bitriq, was widely circulated among Muslim scholars over the following centuries.[1] This was translated into Latin by Gerard of Cremona in the 12th century – and by this means, during the Twelfth-century Renaissance, entered the Western European world of medieval scholasticism.[2] Gerard's "old translation" (vetus translatio) was superseded by an improved text by William of Moerbeke, the nova translatio, which was widely read, as it survives in numerous manuscripts; it received commentary by Thomas Aquinas and was often printed during the Renaissance.[3]
     
    Is it possible “Palestine” was an anachronistic term used by this Yahya ibn al-Bitriq fellow?

    Replies: @gcochran

    Used plenty in Hellenistic times. Earlier too; Herodotus

    • Replies: @Logan
    @gcochran

    Even earlier. A similar and probably ancestral term from Egypt around 1170 BC.

  • @nebulafox
    From what I recall, Hadrian named the place Palestine after the Philistines, precisely to add insult to injury. This was right after crushing the Bar Kokhba revolt, so perhaps it fit with the general plans for cultural extermination.

    Replies: @gcochran

    c. 340 BC: Aristotle, Meteorology, “Again if, as is fabled, there is a lake in Palestine, such that if you bind a man or beast and throw it in it floats and does not sink, this would bear out what we have said. They say that this lake is so bitter and salt that no fish live in it and that if you soak clothes in it and shake them it cleans them.”

    • Replies: @Dave Pinsen
    @gcochran

    Wikipedia:


    An Arabic compendium of Meteorology, called al-'Athar al-`Ulwiyyah (Arabic: الآثار العلوية‎) and produced c. 800 CE by the Antiochene scholar Yahya ibn al-Bitriq, was widely circulated among Muslim scholars over the following centuries.[1] This was translated into Latin by Gerard of Cremona in the 12th century – and by this means, during the Twelfth-century Renaissance, entered the Western European world of medieval scholasticism.[2] Gerard's "old translation" (vetus translatio) was superseded by an improved text by William of Moerbeke, the nova translatio, which was widely read, as it survives in numerous manuscripts; it received commentary by Thomas Aquinas and was often printed during the Renaissance.[3]
     
    Is it possible “Palestine” was an anachronistic term used by this Yahya ibn al-Bitriq fellow?

    Replies: @gcochran

    , @nebulafox
    @gcochran

    Hmm... interesting. So the Greek speaking world did call it Palestine instead of Judea.

    But this doesn't necessarily mean I'm wrong when it came to Roman motivations for picking that particular name to replace Judea. It is too much of a match with Hadrian's dream of a Hellenized east, free of those irritating, forever rebelling monotheists who stood in the way: and after the bloodshed of the revolt, with his plans disrupted, he was probably in the mood to kick the Jews when they were down. Showily renaming the province with the Greek name, if it was derived from the Philistines, would have been perfect. Jerusalem was also renamed: Aelia Capitolina.

    Replies: @Jack D, @kaganovitch

    , @Crawfurdmuir
    @gcochran


    c. 340 BC: Aristotle, Meteorology, “Again if, as is fabled, there is a lake in Palestine (...)
     
    The above is of course an English translation. What word was used for "Palestine" in Aristotle's original Greek?

    Replies: @Jack D

    , @Philip Neal
    @gcochran

    Herodotus, Histories, i 105 (5th century BC):


    From there they marched against Egypt: and when they were in the part of Syria called Palestine [ ἐν τῇ Παλαιστίνῃ Συρίῃ], Psammetichus king of Egypt met them and persuaded them with gifts and prayers to come no further. So they turned back, and when they came on their way to the city of Ascalon in Syria, most of the Scythians passed by and did no harm, but a few remained behind and plundered the temple of Heavenly Aphrodite.
     
  • With Corporate American stridently celebrating Stonewall Pride on the 50th Anniversary of Gay Lib, it's interesting to check whether anybody remembers anymore that Gay Liberation caused AIDS, an epidemic which was not centered in backwaters of homophobia, but instead spread from exactly where Gay Lib triumphed: Castro Street, Santa Monica Boulevard, and Christopher Street. Or...
  • @Jasper Been
    @gcochran

    I will interpret that remark as you cannot refute any of his arguments.

    Replies: @Bubba, @gcochran

    I followed Duesberg from when he started talking about his: he never made any sense, and every one of his predictions was falsified Part of his schtick was that there are only one or two ways that a virus can cause illness. I thought it odd to hear that from a virologist, since I knew more ways: infected cells being killed by the immune system,for example, as happens in LCMV.

    The bit about HIV not really being the cause was probably news to Isaac Asimov and Paul Gann. There were plenty of transfusion cases. In my favorite example, there was a magazine whose raison d’etre was that AIDs wasn’t really caused by HIV. Coincidentally, all the editors happened to have HIV, and even more coincidentally, the magazine ceased publication when every one of them died of AIDs. Definitive end of an argument: if only it were always thus.

    Duesberg used a mix of lies, lawyerism, making up special new and unsupported theories to paper over every falsified prediction – should sound familiar !

    • Replies: @Precious
    @gcochran

    I followed Duesberg from when he started talking about his: he never made any sense, and every one of his predictions was falsified

    I can't argue with much of what you are saying because I stopped paying much attention to news on HIV/AIDS around the year 2000. But I do recall that this isn't entirely true, that Duesberg pointed out that the early drugs used to treat HIV positive people were extremely deadly and were killing people and those treatments needed to be abandoned. This prediction did turn out true, once the treatment program switched to less toxic medications people are now living with their condition much longer and people acknowledge being HIV positive is no longer a death sentence.

    Coincidentally, all the editors happened to have HIV, and even more coincidentally, the magazine ceased publication when every one of them died of AIDs.

    This statement is utterly meaningless. I watched the CDC just keep adding and adding lists of diseases and conditions to AIDS as more people who were HIV positive died from various diseases and conditions. About the only way you could be HIV positive and not die of AIDS is if you were run over by a car.

    Replies: @Lot

    , @Colin Wright
    @gcochran

    '...In my favorite example, there was a magazine whose raison d’etre was that AIDs wasn’t really caused by HIV. Coincidentally, all the editors happened to have HIV, and even more coincidentally, the magazine ceased publication when every one of them died of AIDs...'

    I remember seeing some magazine whose cover article urged those diagnosed with HIV to not trust on big medicine, but rely on 'natural' cures instead.

    My thought was, 'well, there's a chance to make a second big mistake.'

  • @peterike
    This Tom Bethell article from 2000 is pretty definitive about how the AIDS "crisis" in Africa was invented by that old Leftist standby: moving the goal posts. Short version: they defined a simple cluster of common African symptoms -- "prolonged fevers (for a month or more), weight loss of 10 percent or greater, and prolonged diarrhea" -- as "AIDS," without actually giving an HIV test.

    Add some laughable extrapolations to the mix, and you've got your "crisis," delivered on demand, just like they wanted it. Really, read this:

    https://www.virusmyth.com/aids/hiv/tbafrica.htm

    Replies: @gcochran

    Nonsense.

  • @Bubba
    @Paleo Liberal

    Dr. Peter Duesberg, a modern day Galileo, is a professor of molecular biology at UC Berkeley and an expert on retroviruses.

    https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1991-05-21-vw-2451-story,amp.html

    He authored an excellent book in 1996 called Inventing the AIDS Virus. Prior to that he wrote a paper in ‘91 or ‘92 that was published in The Heritage Foundation magazine (which I can no longer find the link to) that argued the AIDS retrovirus was just a marker and could not be responsible for the the death of anyone who had it. Here is a link to a similar article in ‘95.

    https://www.the-scientist.com/opinion-old/duesberg-on-aids-causation-the-culprit-is-noncontagious-risk-factors-58592/amp

    If I recall Dr. Duesberg correctly, one thing he stated was that the AIDS virus violates Koch’s Postulates on infectious diseases. Here is his old website that is still (miraculously) online. https://www.duesberg.com/

    Anyway, Dr. Duesberg’s lab was defunded and he no longer studies retroviruses for his sins against the High Church of Globohomoism.

    Replies: @Gordo, @gcochran, @Coag

    Duesberg was, and is, a loon.

    • Replies: @Jasper Been
    @gcochran

    I will interpret that remark as you cannot refute any of his arguments.

    Replies: @Bubba, @gcochran

  • @Half Canadian
    @TheMediumIsTheMassage

    Men-who-have-sex-with-men are vastly over represented in HIV infections. Given that they are <3% of the population, it would be surprising if they were the majority.

    Replies: @gcochran, @ben tillman, @Anonymous

    They are, though. In the US, ~55% of cases

    • Replies: @South Texas Guy
    @gcochran


    In the US, ~55% of cases
     
    I don't believe that for a second. No ... freaking ... way. Even now, there are still a lot of closeted gays who won't cop to having taken it up the poop chute (looking at you, Magic).

    Basically, the suspension of disbelief is similar to this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMt7C3COiVM

  • From Slate: Interesting. I think this is for homosexual males, not females. J. Michael Bailey's study of Australian twins in the 1990s found about 20-25% concordance, which is both higher than random chance but not really all that high either. It will be interesting what other traits male homosexuality's gene patterns will be similar to.
  • @Lot
    @gcochran

    http://drugdiscoveryopinion.com/2009/06/toxoplasmosis-linked-to-traffic-accidents/

    Replies: @gcochran

    That was sarcasm: rabies affects behavior, so does syphilis. Far more solidly established than toxo effect in humans.

    And many interesting examples are known in other species.

    • Replies: @Lot
    @gcochran

    And the chicken pox virus makes you scratch your skin.

    But the hypothetical gay virus destroys sexual attraction to women and replaces it with sexual attraction to men. Or less often only the latter effect.

    It also sometimes but not always makes men’s aesthetic, vocational and recreational interests more like women’s.

    What germ is known to do anything remotely like that, while not otherwise having a strong ill effect?

    Replies: @e, @TWS

  • @adreadline
    Where is G. Cochran when you need him?

    Also, do not believe Athenian propaganda. Spartans were very macho.

    Replies: @gcochran

    When my beard has grown around the table three times, I will awaken.

  • @Anon
    @Lot


    I think this is part of it, but another large part is multicausal/rare random mutation as with schizophrenia.
     
    Schizophrenia is not caused by random mutations, but has been pinned down in GWAS studies. Plomin talks about it in his book, chapter 6, "Generalist Genes." Schizophrenia is in a cluster of mental ilnesses that are almost indistinguishable from each other at the genetic level, schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and major depression (which is a completely different condition than depression itself, which is clustered with anxiety disorders).

    Because genetics has an aroma of badthink in academia, and because psychologists are siloed away from biology research, this stuff has not filtered down into standard psychological knowledge and practice, but the research is quite solid.

    Replies: @gcochran

    Random mutations are almost certainly a big part of it, but GWAS does not detect them. The bit about the GWAS risk genes for schiz also being risk genes for other mental illnesses is correct and interesting. In terms of causation, at least, our categorization of mental illness was not right.

  • @Lot
    @Art Deco

    I think this is part of it, but another large part is multicausal/rare random mutation as with schizophrenia.

    I don’t find Cochran’s germ theory convincing. We have exactly one example of a germ having complex behavioral effects in human beings, and its effects are subtle (e.g. slightly worse driving) and nothing as dramatic, complicated or consistent as completely inverting sexual desire.

    Homosexuality has two distinct parts: removing desire for one sex and creating it for another. Otherwise you’d have a asexual or bisexual.

    Replies: @Valentino, @Anon, @gcochran

    tertiary syphilis affects your driving? Or was that rabies?

    • Replies: @Lot
    @gcochran

    http://drugdiscoveryopinion.com/2009/06/toxoplasmosis-linked-to-traffic-accidents/

    Replies: @gcochran

  • From The Atlantic: Less so than the reviewer imagines. Though it’s been known for centuries that every person has one biological father, the notion that this biological father could be determined by science first broke through in the early 20th century. Milanich’s book illustrates in detail how paternity testing became both a useful tool and...
  • @TheJester
    @theMann

    I've run across these statistics across a number of Western countries from a number of sources. Years ago the studies started with blood tests and, naturally, have moved to DNA testing.

    On average, 10% of fathers on birth certificates are not the biological fathers. The breakdown by social class:

    30% for lower class births
    12.6 % for middle-class births
    1% for upper-class births

    I speculate that the upper-class versus lower-class disparity is due to the relative risks and costs of exposure to the female perpetrators. Women with husbands who have high place and status on the male Dominance Matrix have much more to lose with respect to wealth and social status than lower class women. There is also the expectation that upper-class women live more disciplined lives, which put and/or keep them in the upper-class in the place.

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon, @Wency, @gcochran, @Old Prude, @AnotherDad

    False. We know the real rates of false paternity, from the genetics: much lower, < 2% in every Western country. And it has been that way for hundreds of years, minimum.

    • Replies: @ladderff
    @gcochran

    Depending on how you define false paternity, two percent is not that low.

    , @L Woods
    @gcochran

    Good thing nothing’s changed in hundreds of years.

  • From The Guardian: I don't know why Teh Grauniad doesn't capitalize "Jewish"... "intramarriage" slowly narrowed the gene pool, which now gives modern Jews of European descent, like my family, a set of identifiable genetic variations that set them apart from other European populations at a microscopic level. ... But still, there was something disconcerting about...
  • @Colin Wright
    @Kevin Brook

    'The article in The Guardian is problematic due to its leftist ideological biases and for taking Professor Shlomo Sand seriously. According to his April 14, 2019 interview with Mediapart.fr, Sand is currently writing a French novel that argues against the notion of genetic Jewishness. He is still in denial of the significant indigenous roots of Western Jews in Israel.'

    I notice that you don't rebut Sand's actual arguments.

    1. The probable Jewish population of Roman Palestine simply couldn't have expanded enough quickly enough to account for the Jewish population of the Roman Empire. 100,000 cannot equal 2,000,000 -- not in six generations or so. More generous figures assume that all the inhabitants of Palestine were Jews, and they all fled Palestine to settle elsewhere -- and both parts of that are demonstrable nonsense.

    2. In the Jewish cemeteries of the Roman Empire, half the names of each successive generation indicate that the deceased was a convert. Do the math on what percentage of a population will remain genetically 'Jewish' if half of each generation are converts.

    Replies: @Kevin Brook, @Kevin Brook, @Not Raul, @gcochran

    Schlomo Sand is wrong. So are you: not least in thinking that there were only 100,000 Jews in Roman Palestine.

    There are a number of factual comments about Jewish ancestry and genetics on this thread: most are wrong.

    • Replies: @Lot
    @gcochran

    “thinking that there were only 100,000 Jews in Roman Palestine.”

    The many Roman legions that defeated the Bar Kokhba revolt of Palestinian Jews consisted of 120,000 soldiers because smaller forces were unable to defeat them.

    It still took many years for the Romans to do so, even though this was around the Roman Empire’s geographic peak, and led by the extremely competent Hadrian.

    Modern estimates of the population of Italy from that period are about 10 million, one sixth the modern count. Applied to Israel, this implies a population of about one million.

    , @Colin Wright
    @gcochran

    '...Schlomo Sand is wrong. So are you: not least in thinking that there were only 100,000 Jews in Roman Palestine...'

    And how many were there? And if they all left, who wrote the Palestinian Talmud?

    And however many left, how did they miraculously multiply to become the millions of Jews recorded in the Roman Empire of the Second Century?

    And why did so many keep taking names indicating they were converts?

    Your fantasies didn't happen. Get that through your head, and then start thinking rationally, and stop inflicting your lies on yourselves and on an innocent world.

    , @Colin Wright
    @gcochran

    '...So are you: not least in thinking that there were only 100,000 Jews in Roman Palestine...'

    I didn't say there were necessarily only one hundred thousand Jews in Roman Palestine. I merely implied it's improbable more than that emigrated. What I said was:

    'More generous figures assume that all the inhabitants of Palestine were Jews, and they all fled Palestine to settle elsewhere...'

    Learn to read.

  • That's classic. The only thing better would have been if Will had announced:
  • @Paleo Liberal
    @Thea

    Two problems with that.

    1. Many military minds at the time felt that whichever side attacked first would have a large advantage. The Nazis believed the Soviets were planning to attack. The Soviets believed the Nazis were planning to attack. As long as both sides firmly believed they had an advantage by attacking first, someone was going to stage a preemptive strike.

    Especially since the Nazis uses the blitzkrieg style of attack, which depends on the first strike.

    2. The Nazis believed time was of the essence. If they struck quickly, they could strike before the Soviet troops were all in position. More important, they could strike before the weather got too bad.

    Where that failed: The Nazis, like Napoleon before them, got bogged down and were stuck in Russia during the winter.
    Add to that the fact that it was the most severe winter in 30 years.


    To be fair, we have no idea what would’ve happened had the Nazis avoided attacking the USSR. Suppose the Soviet Army had plenty of time to get into position. Consider the level of paranoia of Stalin. At some point the Red Army would be ready to fight an offensive battle. At that point they would attack the Nazis.

    Replies: @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Thea, @gcochran, @Anonymous

    “The Nazis believed the Soviets were planning to attack. ” no. Maybe someday.

  • Maybe I don't remember much history, but I do know that, judging from this picture, D-Day must have failed, what with the crippling lack of diversity among the generals planning it. After all, #DiversityIsOurStrength. So, I presume, the D in D-Day stood for Diversity? And yet, where's the drag queen chief of staff? Who is...
  • @International Jew
    @Wilkey

    The Indo-European Hittites of Anatolia and the Canaanite Hittites were not the same people. The similar names are a coincidence.

    The Indo-Europeans in the Hebrew Bible are the Persians! And probably the Philistines too; they're believed to have arrived by sea around 900BC, and "by sea" suggests Greece or its islands.

    Replies: @Wilkey, @gcochran, @Dr Van Nostrand

    Neo-Hitties state were outliers of the original Hittite Empire, continued to be culturally influenced by the Hittites after the fall of the original Hittite Empire. Inscriptions in Anatolian hieroglyphs continued, some in Luwian. Some dynastic continuity, in the north.

  • @PiltdownMan
    @Autochthon

    Coincidentally, I saw the movie for the first time just last night, and agree with your characterization. The movie is cartoonish and absurd.

    I learned a bit about Turing when I was an undergrad math major in the 1970s and read an article about the breaking of the Enigma code, decades later.

    It looks like the Royal Navy commander, Dennison, depicted in the movie as a buffoon, was a highly skilled cryptanalyst himself, and had an accurate understanding of the broad strategy needed to break the code. He also had a keen sense of the kinds of people he needed, and Turing was only one of them.

    A group of Polish cryptographers had already broken the Enigma code in 1932, and had been hired by Dennison. Turing took on the sub-task of analyzing the German naval (Kreigsmarine) Enigma, which had enhancements built into it, and his innovation, along with Tommy Flowers, was to build a computer to automate the task. US Navy cryptographic bombes (computers) proved to be much faster at the task, and the German naval code was broken.

    Replies: @gcochran

    The Brits never hired the Poles. Tommy Flowers designed Colossus, first electronic computer, used to break the Lorenz cipher – which was used for high-level communicationns between OKW and army commands. You’re thinking of the 4-rotor Enigma versions used by the Kriegsmarine.

    • Replies: @syonredux
    @gcochran


    The Brits never hired the Poles. Tommy Flowers designed Colossus, first electronic computer, used to break the Lorenz cipher – which was used for high-level communicationns between OKW and army commands. You’re thinking of the 4-rotor Enigma versions used by the Kriegsmarine.
     
    I guess that Tommy Flowers is just too hetero to get a movie of his own....
    , @PiltdownMan
    @gcochran

    Thanks for the corrections.

  • From the New York Times: The mayor’s proposal would replace the exam — currently the sole means of gaining admission to the schools — with a system that offers seats to the top-performing students from every city middle school. If his plan is approved by the State Legislature — an increasingly dim possibility — the...
  • @Bliss
    @Jack D


    What causes the Asian % to be so much higher than everyone else’s, especially their demographic twins the Hispanics? According to the article, it’s access to test prep. There are a lot of test prep academies where the Asians live and not very many in el Bronx. Apparently this explains everything.
     
    It explains a lot. It would be extremely foolish to deny that test prep does not increase test scores. There would be no reason for test prep academies to exist if that was the case.

    A simple solution would be to make test prep an integral part of the curriculum in every school. It would help to make it fun as well.

    Replies: @gcochran

    There were doctors in 1800, but they shortened your life, on average.

  • From the Journal of Experimental Social Psychology: Racial stereotyping of gay men: Can a minority sexual orientation erase race? Christopher D.Petsko Galen V.Bodenhausen Abstract Decades of research indicate that the traits we ascribe to people often depend on their race. Yet, the bulk of this research has not considered how racial stereotypes might also depend...
  • @BB753
    @Anonymous

    "Gays network. They have gay mafias in white collar organizations through which they promote each other. Also, gays sleep their way to the top, which straight men generally cannot do because women at the top of organizations are either lesbians or straight women who look down on lower ranking males."

    This. Gays network like crazy all the while sleeping with each other. In contrast, straight males are losers because they tend to promote women they sleep with but these will promote women when they reach seniority. So gays and women help each other out, and straight men are going the way of the dodo because they tend to be individualistic.

    Replies: @gcochran, @SFG

    Stonecutters!

    • LOL: BB753
    • Replies: @Unladen Swallow
    @gcochran

    Who controls the British pound, Who keeps the metric system down, We do! We do! Who leaves Atlantis off the maps, Who keeps the Martians under wraps, We do! We do!

  • It's okay to be white (in India). The only countries that don't believe in the aesthetic validity of white supremacy are white countries. In one of my reviews of Harvard geneticist David Reich's 2018 book Who We Are and How We Got Here, I wrote: Reich’s DNA studies find Indians to be as wildly diverse...
  • @Redneck farmer
    @Steve Richter

    There were white sharecroppers, especially north of the Mason-Dixon line.

    Replies: @gcochran

    One of my grandfathers was a sharecropper.

  • For a long time I've been pointing out that a lot of the bad blood in the human sciences traces to a little-remarked but natural rivalry between the two heavyweight champion ethnicities of the intellectual world: Askhenazis versus Anglo-Americans. What Einstein is to Jews, the Darwin-Galton-Fisher tradition ought to be to WASPs. Therefore, ethnocentrists such...
  • @ben tillman
    @Anonymous


    Ed Wilson is an entomologist and popularizer, not a serious theorist.
     
    He is indeed a serious theorist.

    Replies: @gcochran

    No, he’s not. Can’t do math.

  • From the New York Times: The link claiming "Africans and other nonwhite people were present in medieval Europe" leads to an endless series of posts at a website called The Public Medievalist on "Race, Racism and the Middle Ages." For over two centuries, American slaveholders, the Knights of the Ku Klux Klan, Nazi Germany, and...
  • @res
    @gcochran

    I assume this is the paper (in case anyone else wants to read it)?
    Ancient Egyptian mummy genomes suggest an increase of Sub-Saharan African ancestry in post-Roman periods
    https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15694

    Popular article about it: https://www.shh.mpg.de/423779/mummy-genomes

    Greg, do you think it is reasonable to speculate that the average Egyptian had more sub-Saharan African ancestry than the mummified elite? If so, any thoughts about magnitude?

    Do present day Egyptians vary in sub-Saharan African ancestry by social class?

    This excerpt from the paper is a counterargument to my point.


    Although we only analysed mummified remains, there is little reason to believe that the burials Rubensohn excavated belonged exclusively to a group of prosperous inhabitants on the basis of the far published references to excavation diaries and Rubensohn’s preliminary reports that permit a basic reconstruction. Rather it seems arguable that the complete spectrum of society is represented, ranging from Late Period priests’ burials that stand out by virtue of their size and contents to simple inhumations that are buried with little to no grave goods2. The widespread mummification treatments in the Ptolemaic and Roman Periods in particular, leading to a decline in standards and costs48 and the generally modest appearance of many burials further supports this assessment.
     

    Replies: @gcochran

    Differences in ancestry between elites and average in ancient Egypt: I wouldn’t really expect much difference. Over time things tend to homogenize. At the very top, dynastic marriages may made a difference.

    Do present-day Egyptians vary in SSA ancestry by social class? I don’t know. Copts have less, I think.

    Given enough time, skin color alleles are no longer tightly associated with ancestry fractions.

    • Replies: @res
    @gcochran

    OK. Thanks.

  • @Travis
    @william munny

    it seems their term "people of color" includes Egyptians and Syrians, North Africans and middle eastern people were always considered caucasian , even by the racist anthropologists who defined the races into 3 categories, Negroid , Mongoloid and Caucasoid. "people of color" is more of a social construct than race and is an almost meaningless term when the NY times considers Ted Cruz to be a person of color. Last year Ted Cruz was listed as one of the few non-white senators.

    They conflate being from Africa as being a person of Color despite Northern Africans being considered caucasian, even the United States government still classifies them as white today, even as Egyptians have become less caucasian due to the slave trade. It seems the leftists are trying to confuse the issue of race by implying non-europeans are now "people of color".

    They cannot even find Negroid remains in Egypt 1,200 years ago. Scientists took 166 bone samples from 151 mummies, dating from 1200 B.C. to A.D. 425, extracting DNA from 90 individuals. They found that ancient Egyptians share almost no DNA with sub-Saharan Africans. Instead, their closest relatives were people living the Levant. Strikingly, the mummies were more closely related to Europeans and Anatolians than to modern Egyptians. "The genetics of Egyptians did not undergo any major shifts during the 1,300-year timespan we studied," said Wolfgang Haak, group leader at the Max Planck Institute. So as late as 425 AD the Egyptians were still genetically not very different from Southern Europeans. If the presence of Blacks cannot be found in Egypt , it is doubtful they will find any Negroid presence in medieval Europe.

    Replies: @gcochran, @The Wild Geese Howard

    Egyptians in Roman times had ~10% sub-Saharan African ancestry. mostly from Nubia. Today it’s about 20%, roughly equally from Nubia and West Africa.

    I read the paper.

    • Replies: @res
    @gcochran

    I assume this is the paper (in case anyone else wants to read it)?
    Ancient Egyptian mummy genomes suggest an increase of Sub-Saharan African ancestry in post-Roman periods
    https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15694

    Popular article about it: https://www.shh.mpg.de/423779/mummy-genomes

    Greg, do you think it is reasonable to speculate that the average Egyptian had more sub-Saharan African ancestry than the mummified elite? If so, any thoughts about magnitude?

    Do present day Egyptians vary in sub-Saharan African ancestry by social class?

    This excerpt from the paper is a counterargument to my point.


    Although we only analysed mummified remains, there is little reason to believe that the burials Rubensohn excavated belonged exclusively to a group of prosperous inhabitants on the basis of the far published references to excavation diaries and Rubensohn’s preliminary reports that permit a basic reconstruction. Rather it seems arguable that the complete spectrum of society is represented, ranging from Late Period priests’ burials that stand out by virtue of their size and contents to simple inhumations that are buried with little to no grave goods2. The widespread mummification treatments in the Ptolemaic and Roman Periods in particular, leading to a decline in standards and costs48 and the generally modest appearance of many burials further supports this assessment.
     

    Replies: @gcochran

  • We are constantly lectured that eugenics is anti-Semitic pseudo-science. So even I was kind of surprised to read this article from the Times of Israel about how successful the seeming eugenic campaign against Tay-Sachs disease has been: Generally speaking, I've always been more or less
  • @Reg Cæsar
    @TelfoedJohn

    The Sierra Leoneans are stupid, but healthy. Down Syndrome kids are similar. They have a cognitive condition, but are pretty well-rounded otherwise.

    Compare them with Prader-Willi people, who are at a similar mental level, and a horrendous appetite and weight problem.

    Replies: @gcochran

    Down Syndrome kids have lots of medical problems. 40% have congenital heart disease. Leukemia is way more common. etc/

  • @Kratoklastes
    @Anonymous

    No, it suggests a predictable outcome in cultures of deliberate isolation with abundant cousin-fucking... the inevitable genetic shitstorm that incest entails.

    Once the Ashkenazim moved out of the hovels of the Pale and into a gene pool with larger numbers of more-distantly-related potential partners, Tay-Sachs would be expected to wash out of the system over the course of a few generations. Screening simply made the process more rapid.

    Replies: @gcochran

    It’s recessive. Takes a long time.

  • @sabril
    @YetAnotherAnon


    Our systems are set up to do the exact opposite – bright women are encouraged to value career/qualifications over motherhood, less bright are subsidised via welfare to have babies.
     
    Yes, if the current system continued for another 500 or 1000 years, one could reasonably expect that the intelligence gap between men and women would get substantially wider.

    That said, on a 500 year time frame, with everything continuing on the current track, the only thing that matters is subcultures that put a high value on reproduction -- Amish people; Ultra-Orthodox Jews; FLDS; etc.

    Among these groups, are smart women having more children than stupid women? I don't know for sure, but I am pretty confident that the answer is "yes." Because in general, smart people are better than stupid people at obtaining what they value.

    Replies: @gcochran, @AnotherDad

    Longer than that: it is hard to select for trait differences between the sexes.

    • Replies: @sabril
    @gcochran


    Longer than that: it is hard to select for trait differences between the sexes.
     
    Obviously you know far more about this subject than me, and I agree that from an intuitive viewpoint it would be easier to breed an entire species for some trait rather than just the male or female members. On the other hand, men are already smarter than women so it would seem there are already genes for intelligence that already affect men and women differently.

    So I guess my question for you is what your evidence is? And if it takes one generation of breeding to raise the IQ of a subpopulation by 1 point, how many generations does it take to widen the difference between men and women by 1 point?
  • @Anonymous

    Some research indicates, for example, that Louisiana Cajuns, French Canadians and individuals with Irish lineage may also have an elevated incidence of Tay-Sachs.
     
    Does this suggests these groups may have Jewish ancestry? Sephardic perhaps?

    Replies: @Lot, @gcochran, @Federalist, @Sean, @Ed, @Kratoklastes

    No: different mutations of the same gene.

  • From the New York Times: Women Did Everything Right. Then Work Got ‘Greedy.’ How America’s obsession with long hours has widened the gender gap. By Claire Cain Miller April 26, 2019 Daniela Jampel and Matthew Schneid met in college at Cornell, and both later earned law degrees. They both got jobs at big law firms,...
  • @Spangel
    @AnotherDad

    It’s true that gestation and nursing time and the extreme physical immaturity of small children also limit a woman’s ability to hunt big game. If women hunt giraffe, who will mind the toddlers?

    But even with slower speed and wider pelvises, full grown women can probably hunt big game since humans were historically persistence hunters who hunted by running down their prey to the point of exhaustion, sometimes running for 10 hours at a time after the same animal.

    Women are physically capable of ultra long distance running and could probably hunt this way if they had to. They don’t because they dont have to in order to live and because they need to carry their children around or mind their troublesome toddlers.

    Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson, @gcochran, @Forbes

    Jesus, how insane. Have you ever even arm-wrestled a girl?

    • Replies: @Dave Pinsen
    @gcochran

    Persistence hunting sounds like something invented by modern, paleo distance runners. Is there any evidence it was a common form of hunting in prehistory (other than it being possible)? It seems like a very costly way of adding calories to your diet.

  • The figure shows standardized polygenic scores by population for Education GWAS, in descending order (1000 Genomes Populations, EA MTAG, N= 3,257 SNPs). One function of a blog is to let people shoot down ideas. Conjectures have a short half-life. Refutations always snap at their heels. David Becker, whose latest version of country IQs received trenchant...
  • Ashenazi: 60% European, almost all maternal ancestry, most of that Italian. ~40% Middle eastern.

    • Replies: @James Thompson
    @gcochran

    Thanks. Badly remembered on my part.

    , @Wizard of Oz
    @gcochran

    Remind us Greg. Is that based on the most recent DNA based studies? Can you please give some guidance as to best evidence, including understanding it, even though I have been content on UR threads to cite you, from memory, as authority enough. Actually memory tells me one of your posts had 58 per cent where you now say c. 60.

  • @t
    @t

    I doubt on Protestant in a thousand knows what the Edict of Fontainebleau was but Jews can talk about 1260 without looking it up.

    Replies: @Desiderius, @gcochran, @Known Fact

    In my experience, Jews don’t know much about Jewish medieval history.

  • From Scott McConnell: My initial reaction would be that authors would migrate to fantasy or sci-fi, but those fields seem to have even nuttier Thought Policemen than realistic fiction.
  • @KunioKun
    I know nothing of book publishing, but I too wonder why there needs to be middlemen in that business anymore. Do publisher's promote the book for the author in some super clever way that an author could not do?

    According to a quick internet search book publishing in the U.S. is around 26 billion dollars a year, recently. Video games were around 138 billion in 2018.

    Replies: @gcochran

    In the US, in 2016, video games pulled in around 18 billion.

  • A paleontology grad student named Robert DePalma has made perhaps the most important find of a trove of fossils ever. His Tanis site in North Dakota shows the remains of huge numbers of creatures killed within an hour of the comet or asteroid that struck the earth 66 million years ago, rendering dinosaurs extinct: This...
  • @Another physicist
    @res

    They argued that the fossil record showed the extinction took place over 100's of thousands or millions of years. There were substantive arguments back and forth between Alvarez and the nay-sayers.

    Replies: @gcochran

    I’ve read a few books by those guys. Not smart people.

    • Replies: @PhysicistDave
    @gcochran

    gcochran wrote:


    I’ve read a few books by those guys [who doubted the Alvarez explanation of the extinction of the dinosaurs]. Not smart people.
     
    Well... ever since I heard Luis' talk, I have remained convinced that he and his son were right. It seems to me that their opponents, after the initial issues were hashed out, were just people who wanted some additional nuance: there is some evidence that the dinos had been in decline for some time, and the asteroid was merely the coup de grace.

    Still, the coup de grace is sort of the end. I think the Alvarez view is now, rightly, the dominant view.

  • @Buzz Mohawk
    @PiltdownMan

    Excellent. Thank you. I've been exposed to ideas like his on this subject, and I may have read him but can't remember. He gets it that there are basic, physical rules that any living organism must follow, and, um, "size matters."

    I'm just simple-minded enough to look at the sheer size of some of the dinosaurs, and to listen to men like Haldane and some engineers and biologists of today, and to agree that there is no way the big ones could have lived in 1 G.

    There are plenty of other example of gigantism from that era too. Some of the large, winged creatures could not fly in present day gravity and atmosphere, so you need either an air of syrup, or a smaller planet, or both.

    I think noticing things and thinking about their implications should be allowed for laymen.

    Replies: @gcochran, @Jack D

    Assuming that dinosaur bone was the same strength as other reptilian bone – no problem.

  • @res
    @Another physicist


    the intensity of the opposition by the paleontologist and geologists who showed up made quite an impression on me. They *really* didn’t like the idea of a sudden catastrophic event.
     
    Can you (or Dave) give an idea of how much of their opposition was presented in a reasoned way and how much was pointing and sputtering (or equivalent)?

    Replies: @gcochran, @Another physicist

    Pretty much all foolishness.

  • @Candide III
    @res

    > On what basis do you say “K-Pg extinction was fast but not simultaneous.”?
    As I wrote above, I'm following the Russian paleontological/evolutionary-biologist school centering on Dr. Markov. I trust them on paleontology, and as an (ex-)physicist I make a judgment on the general systems principles involved.
    > How long do you think the last dinosaur survived after the meteor impact? An event dragging out years (or decades/centuries even) is nothing on a millions of years timescale. How do you think the dinosaur population at the moment of impact compared to the maximum?
    I don't know. See Intelligent Dasein's comment #5 above, he quotes somebody that dinosaur fossils have been found 0,7 million years past K-Pg.
    > One can make either of two extreme arguments:
    The modern definition of "extinction" matches your (2), but I don't see the value of making such extreme arguments. Yes'kov (apparently he uses the spelling 'Eskov', my bad) quite reasonably (in my opinion) says that fixating on the last few species of a group that had been in bad shape and steadily losing ground for many millions of years prior to K-Pg is a red herring. It does appeal to journalists and the general sensationally-minded public, and it may well be the case that the asteroid impact helped to finish it off quickly rather than lingering on in diminishing numbers for several millions of years more, or even survive in some African river caves like the coelacanth did in the Indian ocean. The important thing is that the group would have become ecologically marginal and nugatory, and this means that the important changes were those that had undermined the group's position in the first place. I'm sure Steve's readers can come up with any number of topical political analogies.

    Replies: @res, @RickinJax, @gcochran

    There’s no evidence that dinosaurs were in decline before the impact.

    As for later fossil dinosaurs, you have to worry about erosion and redeposition.

  • A couple of weeks ago, there was an amusing Carl Zimmer article in the New York Times about how the extinction of indigenous male DNA lines in the Iberian peninsula after the arrival of the Yamnaya (a.k.a., Aryans) around 4,500 years ago couldn't have had anything to do with wars or massacres or the lamentations...
  • @Wilkey
    @Travis

    My contention was with this statement: "There is no remnants of their DNA in the genome of modern people."

    That implies no remnants whatsoever, male or female. Total annihilation. It's the kind of blanket statement I find hard to believe, and which already seems to contradict earlier studies showing that a sizeable % of British DNA traces back to several thousand years before the Yamnaya.

    I'll follow the evidence wherever it leads, but this strikes me as either bad science, or bad reporting about science, or both.

    Where the hell is Greg Cochran when we need him?

    Replies: @Carol, @gcochran

    Bell Beakers, upon invading England, replaced > 93% of the population. Some of the remaining hunter-gatherer alleles you see in the British Isles are actually from somewhat similar hunter-gatherers absorbed earlier on the Continent.

  • @Bardon Kaldian

    Forty per cent of all males had a Y chromosome linked to Yumnaya, indicating after the cultures met, only Yumnaya men were procreating.
     
    I am not attentive reader on these topics, but- what about 60%? It seems these findings confirm that others, too, had procreated.

    Or I'm missing something.....

    Replies: @gcochran

    40% of autosomal ancestry ended up Yamnya, ~100% of Y chromosomes,

  • @Anon
    @obwandiyag


    Buried the lede as usual. Read closely: “Decimated by disease.”
     
    I hadn't realized until a few years ago that the Peruvians were in the midst of an epidemic when Pizzaro arrived. That's really the single thing about the Incas that William H. Prescott didn't catch in the 19th century.

    It's amazing how fast disease spread from native to native, without the help of the Europeans. In fact, I read in one book that a pig that escaped and went feral in Florida in the 16th century may well have been responsible for a disease that spread throughout the New World.

    So sure these big strong blonde men who you so strangely seem to admire to excess
     
    In either 1491 or 1493 Charles Mann observed that the Europeans who arrived on the Eastern United States coast were not exactly guaranteed to prevail over the natives (although, long term, Newton and all, the Indians were doomed):

    -- The natives were taller, more muscular, and (pre-epidemics) healthier than the Europeans.

    -- The natives had more climate- and terrain-appropriate clothing and footwear.

    -- The natives had weapons (bows and arrows) that, in their hands, had greater range and accuracy and shorter repeat intervals, and were lighter weight and more portable than the weapons (rifles) of the Europeans, and they were at least as leathal.

    -- The natives knew the territory.

    -- The natives were more numerous.

    Although I shed no tears for North American native peoples, who were the trailer trash of the New World, it's too bad that the Aztec and Incan civilizations were wiped out. I sometimes wonder what would have happened if shiploads of conquistadors and their armies of cousin relatives and on-the-lam Spanish criminals had shown up in Japan. Who would have won? How did Japan rank versus the Aztecs, Mayans, and Inca? Writing and literature was more advanced. In the 16th century, the late Muromachi era, Japan had formidable castles and the warlike shogunate, so I don't think it would have been a cakewalk for invaders.

    Replies: @wren, @guest, @Desiderius, @gcochran, @Pericles, @obwandiyag

    “The natives had weapons (bows and arrows) that, in their hands, had greater range and accuracy and shorter repeat intervals, and were lighter weight and more portable than the weapons (rifles) of the Europeans, and they were at least as leathal.”

    which is why the Spaniards would routinely win against enormous odds: they were outnumbered 45 to 1 at Cajamarca.

    • Replies: @obwandiyag
    @gcochran

    Because they had allies and disease on their side idiot.

    Replies: @Saxon

  • This month's implosion of the Southern Poverty Law Center (last week, SPLC president Richard Cohen fired the SPLC's legendary co-founder Morris Dees; on Friday, Cohen suddenly resigned) has been not unexpected by close observers of the SPLC for as long as a quarter of a century. So the meltdown's potential causes, although still murky, seem...
  • @Reg Cæsar
    @Paleo Liberal

    Reagan saw through the contradiction in traditional anti-Communism: they can't run a fruit stand, but they'll take over the world. How someone who couldn't run a fruit stand could do so was a question no one asked.

    It's similar to discovering hypocrisy-- don't expose it, leverage it.

    Replies: @Paleo Liberal, @Almost Missouri, @gcochran

    Yeah – how could someone that couldn’t run a fruit stand beat the Wehrmacht?

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @gcochran

    Infinite seconds chances and the United States as its supplier, plus the Wehrmacht failing to properly exploit local allies and pinning everything on an unnecessary symbolic contest.

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @gcochran


    Yeah – how could someone that couldn’t run a fruit stand beat the Wehrmacht?
     
    Home court advantage, and sheer numbers. Didn't work in Afghanistan!

    Replies: @Anonymous

    , @AnotherDad
    @gcochran

    T-34?

    Replies: @J.Ross

  • In the early 20th Century, New York City had an enormous population of German gentiles, such as Babe Ruth's popular sidekick on the New York Yankees baseball team, Lou Gehrig, who was a Manhattanite born and bred: What happened to them? One half-German New Yorker moved to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and another changed his name...
  • @Lot
    @Ron Unz

    Germans and other distinct white ethnic groups in the United States gradually assimilated and intermarried. There is no evidence that a large fraction of Eastern European Jews did this between 1940 and 1945.

    You and your holohoax crew are simply deranged.

    Replies: @gcochran

    Yep.

  • From the New York Times: Carl Zimmer starts off with a lot of talk about migrations and comings and goings and how they've happened again and again. So why are you nativists worried about a few newcomers showing up in your country? Look at prehistory! The same thing happened then. It worked out fine, just...
  • @Anon
    Somewhat OT: Mexicans different from each other in DNA as much as Europeans and East Asians differ from each other.

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2014/06/people-mexico-show-stunning-amount-genetic-diversity?rss=1

    Replies: @gcochran

    They don’t, though.

    • Replies: @res
    @gcochran

    Could you elaborate, Greg? The paper's actual claim seems at least possible to me.
    http://science.sciencemag.org/content/344/6189/1280

    Abstract (emphasis mine):


    Mexico harbors great cultural and ethnic diversity, yet fine-scale patterns of human genome-wide variation from this region remain largely uncharacterized. We studied genomic variation within Mexico from over 1000 individuals representing 20 indigenous and 11 mestizo populations. We found striking genetic stratification among indigenous populations within Mexico at varying degrees of geographic isolation. Some groups were as differentiated as Europeans are from East Asians. Pre-Columbian genetic substructure is recapitulated in the indigenous ancestry of admixed mestizo individuals across the country. Furthermore, two independently phenotyped cohorts of Mexicans and Mexican Americans showed a significant association between subcontinental ancestry and lung function. Thus, accounting for fine-scale ancestry patterns is critical for medical and population genetic studies within Mexico, in Mexican-descent populations, and likely in many other populations worldwide.
     
    Looking at the paper itself, it looks like there is one extreme outlier population. Labeled SER in NW Mexico in Figure 1. I think this is the Seri: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seri_people

    But the paper is odd in that it provides YRI and CEU comparisons, but no hard data for Asian populations (that I see).

    Looking at Panel A of Figure 1 (which should really have at least one Asian population to make a comparison possible) and observing that the PC3 axis containing most of the Mexican variation only explains 0.9% of variance makes me skeptical of their claim.

    Based on this excerpt for the Figure 1 caption:

    TreeMix graph representing population splitting patterns of the 20 Native Mexican groups studied. The length of the branch is proportional to the drift of each population. African, European, and Asian samples were used as outgroups to root the tree (fig. S9).
     
    I think Figure S9 (and perhaps other parts of the Supplementary Materials) would clarify this. But I do not see any source for the Supplementary Materials.

    In brief, I suspect you are right to call BS, but would like to see more decisive evidence.

    P.S. I found the Supplementary Material at https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4156478/
    Why on Earth would they choose a 3 population model (YRI, CEU, NAT-Native American) and leave out Asians given the likely migration path for Native Americans?!

    The text "Asia" does not appear in that file. Figure S9 does include the CHB (Han Chinese) population, but only in panel A. They also reference JPT (Japanese in Tokyo) in Figure S18 and both CHB and JPT in the text.

    Figure S9A seems like the basis of their claim, but I am skeptical given what looks like a very selective presentation of evidence. I would very much like to see a PCA plot including CEU, CHB, and NAT groups.
  • As I've long argued, Israel is an extremely relevant role model for the U.S. Judging from current Israeli politics, the future will be, for those of us who enjoy obnoxious arguments, fun. From the Times of Israel: Israeli lawmaker proclaims supremacy of ‘Jewish race’ Likud’s MK Miki Zohar says Jews are the smartest in the...
  • Not north: east. slavic.

    • Replies: @Lot
    @gcochran

    Sure, but those Slavs were proto-Poles, Wends, Belorusians, and Ukrainians, not Serbs and Croats.

    Thus North Euro I think is a reasonable discription of the non-Med/Levantine ancestry.

    Also, there’s certainly some Germanic/Baltic there too. And a lot of the people who were Slavs 1000-1700 were themselves Germanized and now are simply German.

    Replies: @Anonymous

  • From the Washington Post: To be precise, ethnicity in Miami is a good predictor of where most of your recent ancestors came from (e.g., Cuba or Brooklyn), while race is a good predictor of where most of your distant ancestors came from (e.g., Europe/Mediterranean or West Africa). The latter, race, turns out to correlate more...
  • @Seth Largo
    Building interstates through black neighborhoods was indeed a travesty, and as explanations go, it's one I buy as having had long-term effects on black wealth. Redlining is a bad explanation, or, at best, it's an implicitly racist one because it assumes that blacks living among blacks = economic degradation.

    When I lived in Syracuse, I would look at pre-interstate pictures of working class black neighborhoods. Not wealthy but not poor and certainly not Compton circa 1990. The interstate did have a negative effect.

    Replies: @gcochran, @Hans, @Jack D, @J.Ross

    I don’t know about 1990, but I used to visit Compton circa 1984. It looked fine.

  • From The American Conservative: Hate Hoax Fake a race crime, get a pep rally. By Steve Sailer May 10, 2004, pp. 14-15 I AM PERHAPS the world’s most easily amused person. As an old marketing researcher who enjoys looking for patterns in daily life, I’m almost never bored. Yet, while wandering the flowery campuses of...
  • Your numbers are wrong. “New research on the growth in the scope and scale of felony convictions finds that, as of 2010, 3 percent of the total US population and 15 percent of the African-American male population have served time in prison. People with felony convictions more broadly account for 8 percent of the overall population and 33 percent of the African-American male population. ”

    • Replies: @EliteCommInc.
    @gcochran

    You have no idea what my numbers are based on. If you want to review how and why I get to those numbers there are available. But for now, let's take you numbers at face value. So 77% of black men will not be involved in criminal activity. And those that do, your 33% are largely confined to certain urban environments. And said environments are known across cultures to have said criminal activities. As I indicated previously, blacks occupy the in larger numbers than some of worst environments in which criminal activity occurs.
    __________________

    Let's take the number of black males over 19, that's roughly 11,000,000 of that number there are 487,000 blacks in prison and jail - that is about 4.5%. Now suppose I include black males (older than 13) some 18,000,000 of any age against all men in prison black or white that is roughly about 1,000,000 that's about 5.7%. I do that because I am keenly aware that crime stats are more than mere prison populations. And I think I am being generous in my assessments. But suppose I was even more generous and only accounted for the males over 18, that number would be roughly 9-10%.

    Ignoring issues such as revolving door/criminal manufacture -- I am comfortable with my numbers. Now here's a hint, crime overall is rare, regardless of skin color. Most people obey the law in general, and serious crimes as a staple of US life.


    ----- So according to you, 15% of the black male population have been in prison, that is roughly 3,200,000 over the course of some time frame unknown. But it does not reflect an annual reference because currently there are 487,000 black men in state and federal prisons. You are missing some variable in that assessment. But in either case, based on your own assessments 85 % of the black male population is not associated with criminal behavior -- hardly a case for genetic disposition.

    I stand where I came. Excuse my poking fun at your plantation work being a picnic compared to white labor -- it has to be one of the most peculiar descriptions of slave dynamics i have ever heard. Students don't believe me when I share that story.

    Replies: @Alden

  • Originally published in Academic Questions, October, 2018 (click here for original) reposted by permission When Charles Murray's book Human Accomplishment: The Pursuit of Excellence in the Arts and Sciences, 800 B.C. to 1950 was published in 2003, I was assigned to review it. Forming my thoughts after reading the book, I recalled an earlier exchange...
  • @Wizard of Oz
    @Colin Wright

    That is consistent with my speculative contribution to discussion many years ago on how the Ashkenazi IQ rose. While all the emphasis of Greg Cochran at al. was on the rabbit's many children marrying the successful businessman's many children I suggested that dim Jews, especially males, failed to reproduce as Jews. I think my calculation was that 500 years of no reproduction by those whose IQ was 2 or more SDs below average would raise average IQ from 100 to 115. Now the 115 is not accepted as the Ashkenazi average as it was 20 years ago.

    Replies: @gcochran

    Not what I said.

    • Replies: @Wizard of Oz
    @gcochran

    Apologies. It wasn't a fair summary of your thesis. But I wanted a contrast with my left side of Bell Curve hypothesis (not an exclusive contrast of course) and I suppose it seemed a bit less belligerent than noting that you had summarily dismissed my speculations about the elimination of the dim from the breeding pool..

  • At West Hunter, Greg Cochran unloads on the New York Times: Primitive tribesmen complain about technologically superior invaders Posted on January 18, 2019 by gcochran9 There is a new article in the New York Times Magazine (Is Ancient DNA Research Revealing New Truths — or Falling Into Old Traps?) , in which some pinhead repeats...
  • @Anonymous
    @anonymous


    Most of his blog follows a simple but ass backwards template: he suggests he knows something while flagrantly avoiding actually demonstrating what he insistently implies he knows.
     
    You're not the only one who has noticed that.

    Replies: @gcochran

    For example?

  • In 1995 leftist anthropologist Jonathan Marks coined the term "human biodiversity" in his book of that name. I came up with the phrase independently but second in history, as I immediately discovered by entering the phrase into the early Alta Vista search engine. In the later 1990s, Dr. Marks and I agreed to propose to...
  • @AndrewR
    IDK about you guys, but I, for one, will keep clinging to my saccharine delusion that this can be solved peacefully.

    Replies: @gcochran

    Thanos.

  • At West Hunter, Greg Cochran unloads on the New York Times: Primitive tribesmen complain about technologically superior invaders Posted on January 18, 2019 by gcochran9 There is a new article in the New York Times Magazine (Is Ancient DNA Research Revealing New Truths — or Falling Into Old Traps?) , in which some pinhead repeats...
  • @Colin Wright
    I'm all for genetic research, but I'm not sure it should be taken as the key to absolute truth.

    Sometimes, it produces results that are definitely improbable. For example, one study of Chinese DNA 'revealed' that there were only something like a thousand Han Chinese in 500 BC. It also determined that modern Tibetans had only diverged from the rest of Chinese around two thousand years ago or something -- i.e., that's when they emigrated to Tibet. Conventional archeologists objected that all the evidence indicated that the movement occurred more like about ten thousand years ago.

    All figures are from memory, and subject to correction. The point is that genetics research sometimes comes up with results that are at odds with the rest of the evidence or even simply improbable even taken in isolation. So should we be so unhesitating in draping the mantle of absolute certainty about its shoulders?

    Another aspect of it all is that the 'research' may be subject to abuse. Here I'm thinking of the reality of Jewish racial identity. Obviously, 'Jews' are not all the same people. Netanyahu looks a lot like many gentile Poles; he doesn't bear the least resemblance to Yemeni Jews. And so on. Historical evidence supports this as well; Jewish populations exploded at a rate and in a manner that could only have occurred if the main engine of expansion was conversion rather than natural increase. And so on.

    And indeed, the first genetic studies of Jewry supported this. While the DNA of the descendants of the various Jewish communities were related to the DNA of the descendants of other nearby Jewish communities, it was still more closely related to the DNA of their immediate gentile neighbors. I.e., a German Jew might be a distant cousin to an Italian Jew, but his really close relatives tended to be German gentiles.

    ...but now all that appears to have been mysteriously reversed. Somehow -- the visual evidence, the historical evidence, and the earlier genetic evidence all notwithstanding -- Jews are a race after all, most closely related to each other, be they from Tunisia or the Ukraine.

    Moreover, the studies 'establishing' this all seem to be done by Jews themselves.

    Theoretically, it's possible -- but isn't it also possible that one can make the genetic data say whatever one pleases? Again, if so, can we really place so much unqualified credence in the results?

    Personally, I'm kind of a blood and thunder guy myself, and I'm perfectly happy to accept that the ancient Indo-Europeans carried out mass slaughter on a scale that dwarfs Genghis Khan and everyone since -- but should we really take that as proven?

    Replies: @Flip, @Lot, @gcochran, @Kevin Brook, @Hippopotamusdrome

    “Jewish populations exploded at a rate and in a manner that could only have occurred if the main engine of expansion was conversion rather than natural increase. ”

    Slower than the Amish, though. I want to hear more about all those converts ripping off their buttons.

  • @Toño Bungay
    A tad oversimple, no? The archaeologists cooperated with Reich but dispute his extrapolations from the very few samples he used. Are they really just guarding their comfy notions? Time will tell.

    Replies: @gcochran, @utu

    A single genome tells you a lot about the whole population it comes from. It’s not like finding one more arrowhead. And there have been more sequenced: they confirm the original results.

    Reporters don’t know much.

  • A stunning article in the January 16, 2019 New York Times reveals that geneticist James D. Watson not only has never seen Black Panther, he hasn't even heard of Wakanda, so it's no surprise at all that Watson is ignorant about genetics. Plus, Watson only watched Hidden Figures on one of those little screens on...
  • @WowJustWow
    A recent Chateau Heartiste post ( https://heartiste.wordpress.com/2019/01/13/is-the-cuckoldry-rate-rising/ ) got me thinking: if studies of intelligence, academic achievement, lifetime income, etc. are misidentifying the biological fathers of many of their subjects, are we underestimating the amount of variation explainable by genetics?

    Replies: @gcochran

    All bullshit.

  • From my new column in Taki's Magazine: With the perennial race-IQ controversy back in the news, due to The New York Times attempting to put the boot in on 90-year-old Nobelist James D. Watson from the left and Nassim Nicholas Taleb thundering on against IQ
  • @Stick
    Two things to consider when dealing with different tribes; one is mean IQ, and the other is Operating System. Clearly West Europeans and East Asians have similar mean IQs but they function on two very different cultural operating systems. It is this operating system difference that defines Asian versus European. More focus on operating system differences between alternative civilizations should be the focus of discussion since there is not much anyone can do about mean IQ other than breed with really smart chicks (and that's no fun).

    Replies: @gcochran, @sensitive

    “(and that’s no fun)”

    !

  • From StatNews, veteran science reporter Sharon Begley writes: You can watch the documentary online here. As everybody knows, there is a firm reason to anticipate that the intellectual capacities of peoples geographically separated in their evolution should prove to have evolved identically. And that reason is ... TK. “Our wanting to reserve equal powers of...
  • @Crawfurdmuir
    @syonredux

    To be sure, but how many people really understood at the time (or understand even now) what the theory of relativity is, or how it relates to the phenomena manifested in thermonuclear weapons?

    How many knew or know that David Hilbert is owed at least as much acknowledgment for the theory of relativity as is Einstein? Newton and Leibniz today are both credited for the development of the calculus, but more than a hundred years on, Hilbert gets little or none for relativity.

    Replies: @gcochran, @Jack D

    Because he had nothing to do with the development of SR. If you wanted to sound as if you knew what you were talking about, which you don’t, you’d have said Poincare.

  • @Anonymous
    @Ibound1


    What? He didn’t continuously make Nobel Prize winning discoveries? No wonder he is so bitter. He only won a single Nobel Prize!
     
    Didn't Watson and Crick steal the credit from Rosalind Franklin?

    Replies: @gcochran

    Franklin got the X-ray crystallography data. Watson and Crick figured out what it meant.

  • @gda
    @nsa

    Well....horses for courses, surely.

    Shockley made his eugenic proposal in 1974, long before political correctness, intersectionality, post-modernism et al was an established THING. There simply wasn't the tidal wave of progressivism in science then that there was in 2007, when Watson made his (much more modest) comments.

    Sure Shockley got shit, but I doubt he was buried to under tons of it from all sides like Watson has been.

    Methinks you need to cut Watson a break.

    Replies: @gcochran

    ” I doubt he was buried to under tons of it from all sides”

    You’d be wrong.

  • @Anonymous
    @gcochran

    Whoah. No wonder he was Watsoned.

    Replies: @gcochran

    I doubt it had anything to do with it.

    • Replies: @syonredux
    @gcochran


    I doubt it had anything to do with it.
     
    No racial angle to rile the great and the good.
  • @Chrisnonymous

    Check back tomorrow for “Yogi Berra and N.N. Taleb Debate IQ.”
     
    Steve,

    While I am disposed to think you are correct on IQ, you and Pinker and Murray and Cochran and Razib and the other usual suspects I encounter talking about IQ have not done anything like a knock-down of Taleb. For example, you re-Tweeted Pinker on IQ research replicability, but Pinker's Tweet links to a conference announcement, not to any evidence of replicability. So far, I have seen the "pro-IQ" side basically say, "hey, trust us." Again, I am disposed to, but it bothers me when people can't say, look, Taleb's objection X is wrong because Y, or is wrong and is addressed at Z.

    James Thompson on Unz is doing that a little. He directs us to Lubinski and Benbow on high-IQ correlations with success. Lubinski writes:

    The likelihood of exceptional achievement is markedly enhanced as a function of general ability. There does not appear to be an ‘‘ability threshold’’ (i.e., a point at which, say, beyond an IQ of 115 or 120, more ability does not matter). Although other things like ambition and opportunity clearly matter, more ability is better. The data also suggest the importance of going beyond general ability level when characterizing exceptional phenotypes, because specific abilities add nuance to predictions across different domains of talent development.
     
    Taleb doesn't say that IQ doesn't measure anything, he says it measures something that is not useful in making predictions in the right tail, and I don't see that this is necessarily false. Does the army use IQ to pick its generals?

    As far as I can see, Taleb is offering new challenges in the IQ debate in the public square. This is a good opportunity to remind people about the actual research behind claims on iSteve, not just be Alt-Right Colbert.

    Replies: @jbwilson24, @gcochran

    “Does the army use IQ to pick its generals?”

    If they did, you’d end up with shmucks like Hannibal, Nathanael Green, Sherman, or Von Manstein.

  • From my new movie review in Taki's Magazine: Read the whole thing there.
  • @Diversity Heretic
    @anon

    Herbert Hoover's book, Freedom Betrayed, has, inter alia, a fairly detailed exposition of the steps that FDR took to provoke the Japanese into an attack.

    Replies: @anon, @gcochran

    The key provocation was the German conquest of France & Holland and the defeat of the BEF – putting East Asia up for grabs.

  • From StatNews, veteran science reporter Sharon Begley writes: You can watch the documentary online here. As everybody knows, there is a firm reason to anticipate that the intellectual capacities of peoples geographically separated in their evolution should prove to have evolved identically. And that reason is ... TK. “Our wanting to reserve equal powers of...
  • @Dmon
    @Anonymous

    Watson made his one and only important scientific discovery when he was only 25.

    As opposed to Einstein, who was 26 when he published the special theory of relativity, and pretty much lived off that the rest of his life. Take that, Watson-Hitler!

    Replies: @gcochran

    General relativity, photoelectric effect,Brownian motion, and the equivalence of mass and energy.
    Bose-Einstein statistics, stimulated emission.

    Einstein refrigerator.

    • Agree: MEH 0910, syonredux
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @gcochran

    Einstein earned about 50 patents.

  • @syonredux

    Another factor was at work, friends told STAT. Watson made his one and only important scientific discovery when he was only 25. He discovered nothing of importance afterward, even as colleagues were cracking the genetic code or deciphering how DNA is translated into the molecules that make cells (and life) work.
     
    So, all of you people who didn't peak early, take heart. That just means that you won't turn into an evil racist-sexist-Nazi-Klansman like Watson.Heck, when you think about it, maybe it's best to never have a peak.....I mean, look at me, I've never won a Nobel but I'm clearly a better, wiser human being than nasty old Jim Watson....

    Replies: @gcochran

    I remember when Watson suggested legalizing infanticide up to two weeks after birth.

    • LOL: BB753
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @gcochran

    Whoah. No wonder he was Watsoned.

    Replies: @gcochran

    , @BB753
    @gcochran

    For a scientist who boasted of being worldly and good with PR, Watson is rather blunt. Of course, in this day and age, anything not 100% in line with the Politburo is slandered and "problematic", and has all the snowflakes running in panic for their safe spaces.

    , @syonredux
    @gcochran


    I remember when Watson suggested legalizing infanticide up to two weeks after birth.
     
    What a lunatic! Everybody knows that partial-birth abortion is the morally correct way:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intact_dilation_and_extraction
    , @syonredux
    @gcochran

    Children from the Laboratory (May 1973), An Interview in Prism Magazine
    See Prism, vol. 1, no. 2, p. 13. Prism was the Socio economic Magazine of the American Medical Association. Text at CSHL Archives Repository. [1]


    Watson: But legalities aside, I think we must reevaluate our basic assumptions about the meaning of life. Perhaps, as my former colleague Francis Crick suggested, no one should be thought alive until about three days after birth.
    Prism: But how would society react to such a proposal?
    Watson: Our society just hasn't faced up to this problem. In a primitive society, if you saw that a baby was deformed, you would abandon it on a hillside. Today this isn't permissible, and with our medicine getting better and better in the sense of being able to keep sick people alive longer, we are going to produce more people living wretched lives. I don't know how you get a society to change on such a basic issue; infanticide isn't regarded lightly by anyone. Fortunately, now through such techniques as amniocentesis, parents can often learn in advance whether their child will be normal and healthy or hopelessly deformed. They then can choose either to have the child or opt for a therapeutic abortion. But the cruel fact remains that because of the present limits of such detection methods, most birth defects are not discovered until birth. If the child were not declared alive until three days after birth, then all parents could be allowed the choice that only a few are given under the present system. The doctor could allow the child to die if the parents so chose and save a lot of misery and suffering. I believe this view is the only rational, compassionate attitude to have.
     
    https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/James_D._Watson#Children_from_the_Laboratory_(May_1973),_An_Interview_in_Prism_Magazine
    , @MEH 0910
    @gcochran

    https://izquotes.com/quotes-pictures/quote-if-we-don-t-play-god-who-will-james-watson-276863.jpg

  • From Atlas Obscura: Just keep repe
  • @J.Ross
    @syonredux

    Freud admitted he was not in the same class as Einstein

    Even this is garbage, and probably part of the "Einstein Myth." Both men were beneficiaries of long-run mass media campaigns. Freud legitimized a new science and Einstein corrected powerful, central precepts in an existing science. Freud's "contribution," as mottled as it is, is easily greater.

    Replies: @syonredux, @gcochran

    P. T. Barnum made an even greater contribution.

  • From Quora: This is much like one of Daniel Kahneman's Nobel-winning brain-teasers: According to Kahneman, he has stipulated that the sample is random and the mean is 100, so that’s all you need to know. Hence, the rational answer is 101 and no
  • @Counterinsurgency
    @syonredux

    Leaders IQ has to be somewhere near their follower's IQ, preferably above, so that they can communicate about abstractions. My rule of thumb is that communication becomes very difficult over a gap of more than 20 points. Pick your own from personal experience, but I'll use 20 points here. Example: Linus Pauling was never going to be politician, nor would an of the IQ 80 recruits mentioned in other posts, because their abstractions are not comprehensible to the bulk of political participants.
    So: Hitler has to write a book that appeals to the average reader/opinion leader, who can explain it to those who don't read. Hitler has to give speeches that at least seem to make sense (emotional and rational). If he things in terms of differential equations, he's out of politics.
    Assuming IQ 110 for opinion leaders (lead opinions from IQ 110 to IQ 90, the bulk of the population, including street fighters), that puts a limit of IQ 130 for Hitler. He has to communicate using the same abstractions ("place in the sun", "blood of the Folk", "Welfare of the Folk") the opinion leaders are using, so Hitler wouldn't be at 130, where communication is difficult, maybe at 120, 125, that range. This lets him communicate with his higher IQ planners _and_ the opinion leaders.

    Now, let's take another case, one more like that of the criminals: Southern slave owners, 1840s. _Their IQ is limited by their slaves' IQ_, same reason as Hitler's IQ was limited. For small Plantation owners and standard IQ,, that's an IQ of maybe 90. If the Plantation owner has a supervisor, that puts the plantation's absolute max IQ up to 110 before he lose contact with a supervisor who is near losing contact with the slaves. In a hierarchical upper class of slave owners, some of the owners might be smart -- obviously Washington and Jefferson were, but they would be exceptions.
    Ever wonder why the South didn't support universities, and the Yankees did? Theology and high tech manufacturing industries both reward intelligence to some extent. Slavery, on either side, doesn't.
    For further applications, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_W._Plunkitt, and especially selections from Plunket's method of operation, available at Project Gutenberg and recorded in a political classic book: William L. Riordon; Terrence J. McDonald (15 November 1993). Plunkitt of Tammany Hall. Bedford/St. Martin's. ISBN 978-0-312-08444-8.
    Tammany is credited by many as having passed the initial legislation for our current Welfare state. Once that was done, Tammany was made obsolete by the bureaucracy it had legislatively created.

    Counterinsurgency

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @syonredux, @gcochran, @Sean, @snorlax

    All wrong.

  • From my new column in Taki's Magazine: Read the whole thing there. And here are some Twitter exchanges from after I sent
  • @Rich
    Taleb makes some good points, I'd say anyone with an IQ over 100 has a decent chance of being successful. It's when you got below 95, that things start getting tough in our modern society. Doesn't mean a guy with a 90 can't work hard and outearn everyone, just means he's going to have to be a real grinder.

    My experience with those in the high IQ area, say 130 or better, has also been somewhat varied. I've known super geniuses who could barely hold a conversation, got mixed up in drugs or still haven't finished that novel. If high IQ people get steered the right way, they can be very successful, but those that aren't, have a harder time than the guy with the 90 IQ.

    Replies: @gcochran

    Some people with super-high IQs actually understand what “on average ” means.

    • Replies: @Rich
    @gcochran

    I went to school with a bunch of these high IQ guys, and I understand it's anecdotal, but I d say they fell right into the middle as earners. Maybe it's different in NY, but I don't see these guys doing better financially than the guys I knew who struggled in school. In fact, many of these high IQ guys can't function socially. It's probably over your head, but when you spend a lot of time with high IQ people, you figure out that they might be smart, but they ain't really that smart when it comes to functioning in society.

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

  • From New York Magazine: As far as anybody knows after 17 years of strenuously interviewing prisoners, the Taliban, while criminally negligent in hosting Osama bin Laden in 2001, weren't involved in 9/11. They've been punished plenty for their sin of omission. Neoconservatism, it seems, never dies. It just mutates constantly to find new ways to...
  • @Pincher Martin
    @Lot


    Our involvement in Yemen, as best as I can tell, has resulted in one American KIA over the past two years.
     
    So far. But that's the beauty of endless war - if that number ever changes, it's not like you'll change your mind.

    In the meantime, the war still costs money and without a sane immigration/refugee policy provides the U.S. with endless stream of future Americans we could do without.


    The Saudis overall suck, sure, but MBS is our guy over there.
     
    Why? Because we support each other in meaningless wars we never plan to win? We could use fewer allies like that.

    Replies: @gcochran

    Enemies can be a lot cheaper than allies.

  • From the NYT: Narrower Skulls, Oblong Brains: How Neanderthal DNA Still Shapes Us Two genes inherited from our evolutionary cousins may affect skull shape and brain size even today. What that means for human behavior is a mystery. ... By measuring Neanderthal skull volume, scientists have found that their brains were as big as ours...
  • @Anon
    @gcochran

    "not 50%. Can you count"?

    Thanks for the science fail. I'm sorry that you received the short end of the stick in terms of cognitive ability. Seldom does sarcasm help such people drive home their intended points. My humble suggestion is to abandon it in favor of a tone of appreciative inquiry.

    Yes, by definition, the first inter-breeding event between a pure Neanderthal and a pure human would have resulted in offspring with a rough 50/50 genetic admixture representing the two species. As I before explained in the post to which you responded, that mixed group would have experienced an eventual reduction in Neanderthal admixture to the "2%" commonly cited, with time, due to natural selection (competitive genetic selection).

    Replies: @gcochran

    Out of a human population, a few mated with Neanderthals. The F1 offspring are 50%, but that gets diluted by all the the other humans that never mated with Neanderthals. No natural selection is required for that dilution.
    The original percentage in that human population might have been 3 or 4%. It apparently decreased later, at least partly due to natural selection./ But some Neanderthal alleles have become common.

    • Replies: @Pat Boyle
    @gcochran

    Enough bickering. More simple facts please. I have known that about 2 to 3% of the modern white human genome is from Neanderthal admixture for several years now. It seems to me that someone should know something more about these sequences after all this time.

    I read lots of speculation but it seems to me someone by now should simply know . I've heard about disease immunity, cold adaptation, and the form of the skull. If you don't know, who does? Paabo. Reich, someone else?

    Replies: @Sean

  • @Bucky
    @gcochran

    These percentage stats are likely highly misleading.

    I believe that what separates us from chimpanzees and apes is 1% of DNA, no?

    Humans and apes both have four limbs, are warm blooded vertebrates, two eyes, etc etc.

    99% similarity, when you look at the evolutionary scale.

    But 1% makes all the difference.

    2.4%, and 2%, then is fairly significant.

    Replies: @Unladen Swallow, @gcochran

    You don’t understand.

  • Russia harvested 133 million tons of grain in 2017, beating the all-time RSFSR record set in 1978. It has also been consistently harvesting more grain than in the Soviet years since the mid-2010s. Here it is in a wider historical perspective. Grain production in Russia from 1900-2012: Graph via @burckina-faso, a pro-Soviet blogger, so can...
  • @Vishnugupta
    We would need to adjust for soil quality,average temperature and annual availability of fresh non frozen water.

    Also US yields are in large part due to GM technology which many think is the reason for an explosion of food related allergies.

    Replies: @songbird, @EldnaYm, @gcochran, @Anonymous

    “many think” = morons

  • From the NYT: Narrower Skulls, Oblong Brains: How Neanderthal DNA Still Shapes Us Two genes inherited from our evolutionary cousins may affect skull shape and brain size even today. What that means for human behavior is a mystery. ... By measuring Neanderthal skull volume, scientists have found that their brains were as big as ours...
  • @bucky
    @gcochran

    Actually, yes there is. If East Asians are highly Neanderthal, arguably more so than Europeans, then it stands to reason that the Ameri-Indians who first migrated to North America from across the Bering Strait are also highly Neanderthal.

    Replies: @gcochran

    maybe 2.4%, as opposed to 2%. Highly?

    • Replies: @Bucky
    @gcochran

    These percentage stats are likely highly misleading.

    I believe that what separates us from chimpanzees and apes is 1% of DNA, no?

    Humans and apes both have four limbs, are warm blooded vertebrates, two eyes, etc etc.

    99% similarity, when you look at the evolutionary scale.

    But 1% makes all the difference.

    2.4%, and 2%, then is fairly significant.

    Replies: @Unladen Swallow, @gcochran

  • @Anon

    On the other hand, the survival of some Neanderthal genes in our DNA over all this time suggests that those Neanderthal genes did something net beneficial, at least in the Eurasian environment.
     
    That's not what it suggests at all. Is it possible? Sure. But the mere presence of Neanderthal genetics certainly doesn't "suggest" the conclusion that they are valuable. That's what is called a "hypothesis".

    This type of BS "conclusion" is why you don't have someone with a Bachelor of Arts in English, even if it is from Yale, lecture you on science.

    At only a 1-2% survival, Neanderthal genetics were clearly withered down from 50% when the first humans and Neanderthals mated.

    That could easily mean that, at such a low admixture, a natural selection stalemate was finally reached between mixed and full humans. It doesn't imply something that is worthwhile in the Neanderthal genetics.

    That genetic stalemate could have been helped along by increasingly higher numbers of mixed individuals possibly due to temporary genetic isolation from non-mixed individuals.

    Rhetorical questions: can you fight off ten chimps with a bow and arrow? If not, are you willing to allow that Chimp genetics are valuable enough to enter the human genetic pool? Genetic survival does not "suggest" genetic value.

    It is more likely that a low-point was merely reached in the admixture percentage for which mixed humans weren't easy enough to murder or otherwise out-compete to make it worthwhile or feasible on a large scale.

    By the way, don't fall for the progressive phrasing in this article, and widely used to confusing results in other popular and research articles, which labels every manner of hominid to be "human".

    If it were up to them, they'd have you believing that there were "humans" 2 million years ago (never mind that they would look somewhat like upright chimps to us). You can easily find such phrasing in the popular research.

    Such ridiculous categorization is merely a means of sneaking diversity into science; given that it will be revealed in the future just how out-mixed some races are with archaic non-Neanderthal hominids - think 8-11% admixtures with hominids like Heidelbergensis and others.

    The logic goes like this: if we don't label every hominid to be human insofar as we can get away with it, then humans with high Neanderthal (Central Asian tribes) and Denisovan (East Asian tribes) admixtures are more likely to be considered to be part primate in the future.

    How far are we willing to take the logic in either direction?

    Last rhetorical question: are there unmixed humans?

    Replies: @gcochran

    not 50%. Can you count?

    • Replies: @Anon
    @gcochran

    "not 50%. Can you count"?

    Thanks for the science fail. I'm sorry that you received the short end of the stick in terms of cognitive ability. Seldom does sarcasm help such people drive home their intended points. My humble suggestion is to abandon it in favor of a tone of appreciative inquiry.

    Yes, by definition, the first inter-breeding event between a pure Neanderthal and a pure human would have resulted in offspring with a rough 50/50 genetic admixture representing the two species. As I before explained in the post to which you responded, that mixed group would have experienced an eventual reduction in Neanderthal admixture to the "2%" commonly cited, with time, due to natural selection (competitive genetic selection).

    Replies: @gcochran

  • @Altai
    This study like the previous one is seriously flawed. They took whole genome Neanderthal ancestry (so no real control of if any of it is related to skull morphology) and related that back to 'Neanderthal' skull shapes. But in reality what you're doing is finding that populations with more Neanderthal ancestry have skulls that are more similar in some respects.

    But that needn't be from an expression of Neanderthal introgression but just general skull 'robustness' that takes forms very similar in all hominids. It could simply be a correlation between Neanderthal ancestry and populations that were under less neotenic selection and had less Neanderthal ancestry through bottlenecks.

    Replies: @Neil Templeton, @gcochran, @ben tillman

    Not so, read the article. People with Neanderthal versions of certain alleles have less-globular heads.

  • @fredyetagain aka superhonky
    @Anonymous

    "know nothing but have always suspected the presence of neandrathal DNA in all humans save the sub-Sahrans explained a lot"

    sub-Saharans and also Australian aborigines I believe. And when I see how those two groups function, I'm quite grateful for every darn bit of Neanderthal in my genome.

    Replies: @gcochran

    Abos have Neanderthal admixture, also Denisovan.

    • Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter
    @gcochran

    Except we are not supposed to call them 'abos' any more because it is racist.

    I think we are supposed to call them:

    beautiful, peaceful, technologically advanced indigenous Australian sun-people who were heinously murdered by ebil white debils

    Replies: @dfordoom, @anon

    , @fredyetagain aka superhonky
    @gcochran

    "Abos have Neanderthal admixture, also Denisovan."

    Thank you, I stand corrected.