RSSSeems to be working. Farage has had unprecedented success with a party founded six weeks ago, run on the internet and with no political representation whatsoever. UKIP decided to become an explicitly anti-Islam party. Their leader Gerard Batten lost his European parliament seat, they did very poorly in these elections and they lost about 80% of their seats in the local elections four weeks ago. Tommy Robinson who they brought in as an adviser did so badly he lost his candidate deposit.
I had a ride in my cousin’s Model X a few weeks ago. Acceleration is very fast, software and self-driving (and self-parking) features are impressive. The lack of an engine means you don’t need to have it annually serviced, there is a lot more space available compared to petrol cars and you have a very quiet ride. I am not sure about the build quality though and the self-driving appeared to fail at one point when we were headed towards a wall.
West Hampstead is cheaper because it is right by Kilburn High Road which is rather grimy and crime-prone. West Kensington is about the same price-wise, quite central and much safer.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/street-in-west-hampstead-is-hit-by-20-smash-and-grab-attacks-in-just-six-weeks-a3892221.html
I own a family home in Wimbledon that is rented out and prices don’t seem to have declined much for properties on the same street. Although that mostly may be because there is an outstanding CofE primary a five minute walk away. Not sure how prices in places like Colliers Wood have done recently or how SW prices will fare if Heathrow expansion means a lot more aircraft noise. Kew Gardens seems to have a plane flying over every two minutes as it is.
The best British show of this decade is Line of Duty, a police procedural available on Netflix. Most recent season was a bit weaker than preceding ones.
https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/features/line-of-duty-series-4-is-the-saviour-of-british-tv-bbc-thandie-newton-jed-mercurio-martin-compston-a7648506.html
I’d call the fifth episode the best of the series. A nice change from the relentlessly average, idiotic fan service the Marvel movies have become. It’s a shame George RR Martin wasted his time on various nonsense and left the writers to essentially wing it.
Some of the Dothraki made it back from the charge, others could have been left at Dragonstone which is why Euron didn’t try occupying it. Same for the Unsullied, not all may have arrived in the north. They would have been short on ships after S7.
The overall trends are clear, every new Star Wars movie will produce less profits. The novelty has worn off and even the normie Star Wars fans will grow wary of the Star Wars sausage factory that Disney has gone for. Add to this the fact the jews have also decide to use Stars Wars as a SJW propaganda tool, this will turn off a lot of more dedicated fans, it will also produce less toy sales as blue haired feminists and gay black men are not big into Star Wars toys.The (((D&D))) movie will struggle to make more than $500 million, and this movie will no doubt have a huge marketing and production budget, which will not be a success for a Star Wars movie.Replies: @Ali Choudhury
If you are so certain, put your skin and your prestige to the game and predict the box office results of D&D Star Wars movie
Maybe, the Disney Star Wars movies have been hurt by developing too many in too short a timeframe without having an overall plan for the new trilogy. Hence the overreliance on the old movies. After the last movie is out, they will be slowing development down. TLJ looked like a movie which needed six months more of development to address weaker areas of the story.
Istanbul is a port city, 200 miles from Bulgaria and 350 miles from Athens and built on both sides of the Bosphorus strait. The average summer temperature highs are in the 80s, winters can get close to freezing.
Huh? Using scents and perfumes is encouraged in Islam. Huge trade in them outside the Kabah in Mecca. The very religious may abstain from using perfumes with alcohol content on the grounds that any contact with alcohol should be avoided.
This did well in the UK although it’s Broadway run only lasted for a month due to a poor review by the NYT.
Well, it was somewhat overshadowed by the invasion of Iraq four years later.
There seems to be a lot of resentment of Meghan Markle based on her being an American actress parvenu who has bagged a prize that many hopeful potential mother-in-laws had set their hearts on.
The comments by Steve are rather braying and tin-eared. Was Goins complaining somewhere that he was underpaid and could get a lot more on Wall Street? Believe it or not, plenty of able people have no desire to work the harsh hours or endure the brutal work environment of places like Goldman Sachs. They like imparting knowledge and working on problems which interest them and having the autonomy to structure their working week as they see fit i.e. having a professional life in academia. In elite universities, undergrads are usually seen as an unwelcome distraction from research and helping them is work palmed off to TAs while the professors work on their next paper or jet off to their next conference. If his real passion was motivating more talented black students to see academia as something they could pursue, good for him and it is good to see him in a college that fits him better. The tone of Steve’s response is bizarre given how he often expresses he wishes Jews would show more noblesse oblige and not just chase money/promote Israel.
The Rock voted for George W Bush, very unlikely he voted for Trump based on his public statements.
Huh? Have you been to the centre of Leeds recently? It is like another London. Outlying suburbs and smaller towns in Airedake like Bingley, Ilkley and Otley is where the white share of the population is highest.
There are few routes to meaningful recourse (i.e. $$$) in the vast majority of countries. On balance, that’s probably a reasonable price to pay for the occasional story of a woman suing McDonald’s for spilling her own coffee.
Indeed. My father-in-law may have had the eyesight in one of his eyes permanently damaged when a rookie surgeon in Pakistan operated on his cataracts and gave up halfway due to not feeling up to it. No means of recourse unless you are connected and one of the elite.
I asked my wife the academic economist why women were a rarity in her field of work. Her politically incorrect response was that women are generally bored and unenthused by math. I don’t believe her sex has ever led to her being discriminated against in her work, it seems pretty meritocratic as far as I can tell. A fair number of academics have pretty flaky personalities across both sexes and those who rise to the top have a tendency to actively dump boring and time-intensive admin work on junior staff who are all competing with each other to publish well and also deal with the headache of teaching. Women being more eager to please, more conscientious and less willing to upset people thus become prime dumpees. I wouldn’t be surprised if that is driving the angst.
Your wife has hit the nail on the head. It's the math. Great math-free contributions to economics have been made, are being made and will be made. Unfortunately, if you're not pretty good at math (engineer-good, not physicist-good, though that won't hurt at all) you just won't survive year 1 at a top-ten PhD program. You have to take the triple-whammy of macro, micro and econometrics, and they're laden heavy with math.The economics profession loses a lot of potentially great female and male contributors for this reason. Conversely, the profession is top-heavy with high-powered math weenies who aren't all that interested in real economic problems. (Alas I was one of those weenies... So I'm guilty, but at least I know what I'm talking about.)Replies: @Anon
Her politically incorrect response was that women are generally bored and unenthused by math.
If you work for a private company with a lot of government contracts, you are going to be pretty screwed.
Not really. Diana was beautiful but also a needy headcase who had nothing in common with Charles. They had no shared interests other than their children. And Bezos is unlikely to commit to marrying anyone else any time soon.
What is partially responsible for this is the mass-advertising of prescription pharmaceuticals to the general American public which is thankfully banned in Europe. Opioid abuse is much lower here as consumers are not bombarded with ads telling them the cure to their woes lies at the bottom of a pill bottle.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2002/oct/23/advertising.marketingandpr
If you do a search for United States scientists Google comes back with Einstein, Fermi, Bell, Witten, Watson, von Braun and Sagan in that order. After Sagan you see the black American astronaut Mae Jemison and then George Washington Carver followed by William Shockley and another series of white men till you get to Geraldine Richmond. Maybe the “American” bit gets picked up as African-American.
I think Meade was in charge of the Army of the Potomac from Gettysburg to the end of the war. McClellan had a spell as general-in-chief before Halleck replaced him. And then Grant replaced him after Vicksburg.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-11/melbourne-sudanese-crime-statistics-victoria/10065402
According to the article above, the combined number of criminal offenders who were born in Somalia and Sudan numbered 1,086 in 2017-18. That was out of a total offender number of 80,000. No other African country made an appearance in the Top 10.
The 2011 Australian census said there were about 19k people of Sudanese ancestry in the country, about the same number as in 2006. Somalian were about half that. So an Australian equivalent of the takeover of Austin, IL (population 98,000) is pretty unlikely.
Australia has had a pretty sane immigration policy for years now so not many problem cases make their way in.
Steve is a Ben Franklin-ist who wants close to zero immigration (legal or otherwise) into the US so folk like his family (and maybe existing US citizens) don’t have to worry about crime, terrorism, subsidising foreign indigents, diversity nonsense or having to compete for top jobs, excellent housing, premier golf course memberships and elite college places with hyper-competitive people who are not his kin.
Good article but a more accurate headline would be Trump Is A Good President For The Rest Of The World And An Appalling Clown as per the first paragraph.
Exactly. You are not going to get the political impetus to build a wall along the southern border since illegal central American infiltrators aren’t perceived to be a serious security threat. Or at least not worth the cost a typical government construction project incurs. The Sinai insurgency was likely one of the top two reasons Israel built the border wall with Egypt.
It would probably be a lot more cost-effective and quicker to just enforce the law and hand out large fines and business license forfeitures for employers who can’t verify their employees are legally allowed to work. Happens all the time in the UK. Until Mexicans start lobbing large amounts of rockets across the border, a wall will never go up so there is no use pining for one.
Doesn’t track with religion, would be interesting to know what drives the different occurrence rates. Niger is 97% Muslim and has a 2% occurrence of FGM while Somalia has a 91% rate. Ethiopia is 66% Christian/33% Muslim, has a high rate at 74%. Kenya is 11% Muslim and has a FGM rate of 27%. Uganda is similarly 12% Muslim and has a rate of 2%. Cameroon is 21% Muslim and has a Niger-like rate of 2%.
And total spousal visas issued (that is for all nationalities) have been averaging 16,000 annually over the past five years since the income restrictions were introduced. About 50% of those in a year are for South Asians.
In comparison, Polish-born residents of the UK went from 95,000 in 2004 to 922,000 in 2017 per Migration Watch. For the EU-8 as a whole (Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia) it went from 167K in 2004 to 1.44m in 2017. So if there was an invasion\population replacement in the offing it was being driven by white European Christians whose offspring would be indistinguishable from the native British.
Well when you put it that way!
if there was an invasion\population replacement in the offing it was being driven by white European Christians whose offspring would be indistinguishable from the native British
According to the stats on MigrationWatch, total U.K. spousal visas issued were 20,000 in 1996 and then went up to 25,000 in 1997. Up to 2004 they averaged 30,000 per year. That is not really a huge flood.
From looking at the migration stats available on gov.uk (these cover 2004 to 2017 Q1), spousal visas for Pakistanis were running at an average of 7,000 or so from 2004 to 2010. For Bangladeshis it was about 2,300 per year. Those figures have more than halved since 2012 when the government brought in minimum earnings thresholds for those looking to import a spouse from outside the EU.
That is 20,000 spousal visas in 1996, 25,000 in 1997 and 30,000 per year too many.
total U.K. spousal visas issued were 20,000 in 1996 and then went up to 25,000 in 1997. Up to 2004 they averaged 30,000 per year. That is not really a huge flood.
:)My home constituency was Bradford West, the occurrence of postal vote fraud doesn’t particularly have an impact there since it is has been a safe Labour seat going back for eons. Which is what happened in 2015 when the female Labour candidate Naz Shah beat George Galloway and Imran Hussain beat the Liberal Democrat candidate in neighbouring Bradford East.
Not sure where dearieme gets the idea “Moslem” immigration rocketed in the Tony Blair years, most of the incomers in the early years of New Labour were South Indian Hindus and then Poles and Eastern Europeans from 2004 onwards when free movement from there was permitted. The increase in the Muslim population was mostly from new births.
A column on golf courses please, been a while since we had one. Plus please review Vice here when it is released.
Everyone knows,when the moon is supposed to appear, the variable is whether it is visible to the naked eye. In any case you don’t need to take time off for that holiday, you just go pray early in the morning and go to work as normal.
Imran Khan is a bit of an idiot. Mark Wahlberg would have been a much better pick as prime minister. Still there are entertaining stories about Khan from his playboy days back before he became a weird religious scold.
https://www.news.com.au/sport/cricket/imran-khan-and-the-sydney-university-maiden/news-story/314f27bd6d69b7cdd34210c881228f30
Excerpted below:
Khan was considered a notorious playboy during his legendary career and O’Keeffe recalls how the Pakistani great had caught the attention of one glamorous blonde watching on at University Oval.
“She only had eyes for one player and it wasn’t happily married Uni captain Mick O’Sullivan with five daughters — it was the Pakistan all-rounder,” O’Keeffe explains.
Khan was staying at the up market apartment complex The Connaught, overlooking Sydney’s Hyde Park and would zoom around Sydney in a red sports car provided by a sponsor.
Sydney University were defending just 180 on a flat deck and North Sydney was making easy work of the run chase as the lunch break was called.
While Sydney University players were “nibbling nervously on some Sao’s”, Khan had other things on his mind.
“He was waltzing out of the carpark with the blonde into the red sports car and back to The Connaught,” O’Keeffe
North Sydney was well poised for victory. At 3/130, chasing 180, things looked bleak, and University were now without their strike man.
Imran Khan had not returned. Captain O’Sullivan was livid. North Sydney’s score was mounting, in lots of 10 towards the small target. The visitors knew that without the star bowler on the ground, they were a huge chance of victory.
“20 minutes after the break, Imran Khan with the blonde and the red sports car returned, and casually strolls onto the field at fine-leg,” recalled O’Keeffe.
Imran Khan would walk up to his captain Mick O’Sullivan and simply said “I will bowl now,” says O’Keeffe – Khan offering no explanation as to why he was late.
“He bowled the most withering spell of reverse swing ever seen at Sydney University Oval,” O’Keeffe said (and fired his team to a thorough victory).
RIP to a great American, a truly nice man and easily one of the greatest post-war American presidents. He dealt with a multitude of difficult issues that had been left undecided at the end of the Reagan Administration and did a superb job in closing them out such as the S&L crisis and the mess in Nicaragua. He broke his pledge to not raise taxes but the deficit deal he made got US finances under control and was the basis of the future prosperity in the 90s and mid 00s.
The masterful closing out of the Cold War and dealing with the Soviet coup, not to mention the stunning prosecution of the Gulf War probably rank as the high point of American statecraft in the 20th century. It was a huge shame he lost to the sleazebag Clinton in 1992. What It Takes, the book by Richard Ben Cramer is an excellent look at the man. He was very underrated while President, hopefully the passage of time and the mixed record of his successors will lead to a proper appreciation of his talents.
A good article by Jonathan Rauch on his many successes.
https://www.jonathanrauch.com/jrauch_articles/bush_41_father_superior/
This is what happens to your brain on Forbes and the Wall Street Journal. In reality, China is the world's largest creditor. In fact, it's the US which is the largest debtor in the world.
Chinese progress has been most impressive but the country is sitting on an enormous pile of private and SOE debt.. There has not been a country in recorded history that has accumulated debt at the rate China did post the 2008 crash.
The sheer amount of shadow debt outstanding is huge. 250 to 300% of GDP by some estimates. You reckon the Chinese government have this covered and can rescue failing institutions. They probably don’t even know how many bad loans need to be written off and how badly it will cause a squeeze on normal lending.
The amount of shadow debt is probably exaggerated: all that extra cash would either increase China's inflation rate or else greatly boost the import of goods. The Chinese inflation rate is reasonable, as is the quantity of imports (nowhere near GDP).
The sheer amount of shadow debt outstanding is huge. 250 to 300% of GDP by some estimates.
The Cold War and threat of nuclear annihilation is gone, so why not elect entertaining charlatans, dunces, fools and outright crooks?
Eh?
The Cold War and threat of nuclear annihilation is gone
Chinese progress has been most impressive but the country is sitting on an enormous pile of private and SOE debt.. There has not been a country in recorded history that has accumulated debt at the rate China did post the 2008 crash.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/21/china-debt-small-firms-have-difficulty-getting-loans-amid-trade-war.html
https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2018/11/24/debt-not-trade-war-is-chinas-biggest-problem/#4b4b014a4c4d
When the chickens come home to roost it will not be pretty.
This is what happens to your brain on Forbes and the Wall Street Journal. In reality, China is the world's largest creditor. In fact, it's the US which is the largest debtor in the world.
Chinese progress has been most impressive but the country is sitting on an enormous pile of private and SOE debt.. There has not been a country in recorded history that has accumulated debt at the rate China did post the 2008 crash.
Don’t think this Sailer theory holds water. A lot of the protest outrage you see is driven by young, white leftists of fairly comfortable backgrounds. The dumb and diverse aren’t that organised and don’t care that much.SJWs have rediscovered the original American religion of Puritanism mixed with universalism. Like Huey Long said when fascism comes to America it will be called anti-fascism.
I doubt the Soviets cared about a Middle East skirmish. It is unlikely they thought the Israelis would have a chance against a serious European military. Gorbachev came in because they wanted a young dynamo who could go toe to toe with Reagan, not some tired geriatric who would die in office.
The Israelis destroying Soviet-made Syrian air defenses would have been a wake-up call to the Soviets because the Israelis would have done so with American technology and weapons systems. (Even if the Israelis developed this on their own, it would still be available to the U.S./NATO.) It was basically a proof of concept to the Soviets. If Israel could use American-made weapons/technology to destroy Syria's Soviet-made air defenses, then America could presumably have destroyed the Soviet Union's air defenses had the need arisen. It wasn't so much that it Israel destroyed Syria's air defenses. It was that American-made weapons destroyed Soviet-made air defenses.Replies: @Steve Sailer, @istevefan
I doubt the Soviets cared about a Middle East skirmish. It is unlikely they thought the Israelis would have a chance against a serious European military.
Trump is not a dummy. He is likely a genius on matters he is very interested in like high rise construction in Manhattan. Like Bush the 2nd though he is bored and profoundly uninterested in things which he does not care about.
Probably because before the DVD and VHS era you would only really be able to see a movie in a theatre. The target audience of sequels were those who had made the effort to go watch the first one in the US. Now movies have box office releases plus home video, streaming, aaairplane much bigger international market, pirated and airplane showings and about two to three years to build an audience and word of mouth. Batman Begins in 2005 had an OK theatrical run, did very well with DVD sales and saw the sequel do about three times the business when it was released in theaters.
Australia? The country which had Julia Gillard in power for 3 years and voted out John Howard?
Britain’s mistake was to completely misjudge it’s power over Ireland. They thought they could browbeat Ireland into accepting whatever the choose for us and that the EU would help them. This was foolish for a number of reasons.
Firstly Britain vastly over-estimated its economic power in Ireland. Irish exports to the UK can be neatly divided into two categories, food-stuffs which, push come to shove can be exported anywhere and higher end goods and services that serve the whole of Europe and that Britain would be buying anyway. Irish imports from Britain by contrast are largely the same plus specialty products that can be found in a country of 65 million but not 4.75m which we could source on the continent if wer had to.
Secondly the British don’t seem to understand that when they leave the EU, they will have left the EU. The can’t seem to understand that the EU would never side with a non-EU country against an EU country because it wouldn’t last 10 years if it did.
Thirdly, we know the British better than they know themselves. We know that this whole Brexit nonsense is nothing more than nostalgia for empire and the status that came with it. We know that sooner or later fantasy would collide with reality and because of the ticking clock of article 50 they would be forced to see sense. All their puffery ultimately achieved was to force them to choose whatever the EU was prepared to give them of a 2008 style financial crisis. Britain is a country with a chronic trade and balance of payments deficits. They ultimately have no choice.
Finally there is just an asymmetry of importance between the UK and Ireland when it comes to northern Ireland. NI is the UK’s Puerto Rico, It is Ireland’s Mid-West. Any Irish politician who caved would have committed career suicide. Irish voters would be willing to endure far more pain for NI than UK ones would.
Brexit is a con. It is a product of libertarian activists who think they can manipulate nationalist voters. The only consequence of Britain leaving is that its economy’s growth potential will permanently decline and immigrants to the UK will become browner.
There will be no UK trade agreement with the US either. The US won’t allow the UK access to public procurement(this is why TTIP collapsed) and the British won’t allow access to their NHS for US healthcare companies.
Scotland is going nowhere because Brexit makes Scottish independence redundant(The SNP case was that Scotland could like any other another EU country. Now it can’t unless if exits the British single market, and there’s no point in independence while staying in the British single market). Northern Ireland politics is such a mess right now I don’t know where it is going.
The EU is a necessity. Without it Europeans would never be able to compete because of lack of scale. And the US, Russia and into the future China would play divide and conquer. Yes it is the source of a lot of liberals BS but don’t see that reducing at all in any world where the EU doesn’t exist.
Brexit is a nation making a fool of itself.
Why do Europeans need to "compete" anyways?Replies: @Charles Pewitt
The EU is a necessity. Without it Europeans would never be able to compete because of lack of scale.
A massive and bloated bureaucracy issuing truckloads of arcane rules does not help Europe "compete". The EU is a brake on European economic competitiveness.Replies: @Philip Owen
The EU is a necessity. Without it Europeans would never be able to compete because of lack of scale.
You think you do.
Thirdly, we know the British better than they know themselves.
Perhaps this nostalgia existed in the 1960s, but the economic humiliations of the 1970s put and end to such delusions of grandeur.
We know that this whole Brexit nonsense is nothing more than nostalgia for empire and the status that came with it.
Common standards for goods and services are a Good Thing. However, when it comes to "competing", the sort of competition that EU politicians have in mind is geopolitical and financial competition with the USA. They are genuinely peeved that when they climb to the top of the greasy pole in their own countries, they then find that they are not the equals of the POTUS. On the whole I think we are far better off if no one in Europe has such awesome power.
The EU is a necessity. Without it Europeans would never be able to compete because of lack of scale.
On the contrary, it happened because the EU has passed the point of maximum usefulness. We passed "peak EU" some time between the Maastricht and Schengen Treaties.The Euro has driven Greece into grave poverty, and has seriously harmed the economies of Cyprus, Spain, Portugal, and Italy. It is not impossible that one of these countries will decide to leave the EU in order to prosper.Yet while Britain is the first country to leave (if Greenland and Algeria are not counted), the countries that still want to join the EU will be very hard to integrate, both economically and culturally: the Orthodox and Muslim countries of the Balkans; and Turkey, Ukraine and Georgia. It should be a cause for concern that some EU countries wish to encourage Ukrainian membership, at least in part because they want to "sock it" to the Russians.
Brexit is a nation making a fool of itself.
Is this really true? I don't have a handle on the figures involved, but it seems like an assertion that needs some backup (It was definitely untrue, for instance, in the middle of the last century).
Irish exports to the UK can be neatly divided into two categories, food-stuffs which, push come to shove can be exported anywhere
If you had said "The EEC is a necessity" I might have bought it. This seems going just a bit far.
The EU is a necessity.
It is a pity it is happening but was inevitable thanks to Merkel. By letting in a million unvetted people into Germany and simultaneously refusing to grant the UK any options on limiting EU migrants who had cascaded into the country after 2008, she did all the Leave side’s work for them.
His French audience probably knew he was riffing on the earlier De Gaulle quote:
Patriotism is when love of your own people comes first; nationalism, when hate for people other than your own comes first – Charles de Gaulle.
Above is the full George Orwell. He probably ripped it off other writers, too.Replies: @Pericles
“Nationalism is not to be confused with patriotism. Both words are normally used in so vague a way that any definition is liable to be challenged, but one must draw a distinction between them, since two different and even opposing ideas are involved. By ‘patriotism’ I mean devotion to a particular place and a particular way of life, which one believes to be the best in the world but has no wish to force on other people. Patriotism is of its nature defensive, both militarily and culturally. Nationalism, on the other hand, is inseparable from the desire for power. The abiding purpose of every nationalist is to secure more power and more prestige, not for himself but for the nation or other unit in which he has chosen to sink his own individuality.”
That's not a common view held by any serious historian (even those who assign primary responsibility to Germany), but myth-making nonsense.Replies: @Ali Choudhury
He takes the common view that the primarily culpable party was Germany which wanted its hands on White Russia in order to expand eastwards and become a genuine global superpower.
It is the view taken by Fritz Fischer at the University of Hamburg, David Stevenson at the LSE, David Fromkin at Boston University and Sir Michael Howard at Oxford and Yale. Weltmacht oder Niedergang was firmly official German policy before 1914 and relaunched by Hitler in the 30s.
In other words, Imperialism.
It is the view taken by Fritz Fischer at the University of Hamburg, David Stevenson at the LSE, David Fromkin at Boston University and Sir Michael Howard at Oxford and Yale. Weltmacht oder Niedergang was firmly official German policy before 1914 and relaunched by Hitler in the 30s.
This book was published in 1920 and was the fruit of 14 years the author spent working in the Austro-Hungarian diplomatic service at the level of Consul General.
As such, it's a firsthand account of events leading up to WWI which is interesting as this reviewer hasn't seen it referred to in the current confusing debate. Revisionist author McMeekin says that the Russians and French were at fault, others say the Germans and Austro-Hungarians and still others say that Serbian radicals started it or everyone was "sleepwalking towards war" or perhaps railway timetables and mobilizations took on a life of their own.
Goricar pins the blame directly on Germany/ Austria-Hungary. Basically this alliance wanted war and Russia and France didn't, and he provides a good deal of first hand evidence:
He shows for instance that 30 years before WWI, the ideas of "Lebensraum (living space)" and the "Drang nach Osten (drive to the East)" were well established as where ideas of German racial superiority.
After Von Moltke's 1871 victory over the French he wanted a direct attack on Russia. A voluminous Pan-German literature supported these ideas with one example among many being Karl Jentsch's 1893 book, "Neither Communism nor Capitalism" saying, "The German colonists, spread over these wide areas, would be under the protection of the German Kaiser. In this manner, the whole European East, as well as Asia Minor, would form one mighty German Empire, a rampart for European culture against Russian and Mongol hordes, Germany becoming the Empire of empires."
Slavs (i.e. Russians, Poles, Slovenes, Slovaks, Czechs, Serbians, Ruthenes and Ukrainians) were constantly referred to as so-called inferior races and on P.86 he quotes from the address of German publicist Maximilian Harden to an audience which included the foreign minister, Count Berchtold and a dozen leading army generals, "Every war is justified, even against a small people, if it is for the purpose of guarding national prestige and if it brings advantage to your country."
Or Hugo Witte, the German consul in Mukden, Manchuria, replying to the author's question, "Why should Germany proceed aggressively against Russia?". Answer, "...that Russia has immense, undeveloped and uncultivated territories in her empire. These territories must be opened to human activity. ....Russia must be partitioned among Austria-Hungary, Germany, Sweden, Rumania, Turkey and Japan. .... We must give Russian such a blow that we may take away from her not only the Baltic provinces but also Petrograd, and make Finland independent or give it to Sweden. etc.
The obvious question is whether these bellicose words were matched by action and the answer is surely yes.
The Treaty of Berlin 1878 allowed the temporary occupation and administration of Bosnia-Herzegovina by Austria-Hungary under the suzerainty of the Sultan of Turkey, however on the 7th October 1908 the territory was formally annexed to Austria-Hungary, much to the consternation of neighbouring Serbia.
They logically assumed that they were next, and 6 months later they did in fact face an ultimatum from the Austro-Hungarian Council of Ministers requiring the "Unconditional recognition of the annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and renunciation of agitation against the Hapsburg monarchy" so under threat of invasion, Serbia accepted the terms on the 31st of March 1909.
The book doesn't say it, but from the Austro-Hungarian point of view, they were worried by the example of Serbian nationalism animating nationalist feeling among the many Slavonic peoples within the Empire, threatening its collapse (which eventually happened - but after WWI) or the idea of Pan-Slavism in general.
The German answer was seen in a pre-emptive strike against Serbia-Russia in a combined Austro-Hungarian and German action especially considering 1) the German view of the invincibility of its army 2) the perceived current weakness of Russian forces.
Goricar goes at some length into the cynical German-Austrian attempts to hide their strategy but the basic facts still remained. After the assassination of Grand Duke Ferdinand, Austria-Hungary didn't have to give an ultimatum to Serbia but they did. Germany didn't have to give the ultimatum unquestioned support but they did, and an international call for a Peace Conference was sidelined and ignored as they headed towards war.
I would recommend Catastrophe by Max Hastings whose books on WW2, Vietnam and the Korean War are magnificent. Great on the military history, the battles, the high politics, the great personalities and also the ordinary soldiers and citizens involved. He takes the common view that the primarily culpable party was Germany which wanted its hands on White Russia in order to expand eastwards and become a genuine global superpower. Hitler’s war aims were essentially similar but with more genocide and outright slavery.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/books/historybookreviews/10382547/Catastrophe-by-Max-Hastings-review.html
In this enormously impressive new book, Hastings effortlessly masters the complex lead-up to and opening weeks of the First World War. As a historian, his objective is twofold: to pin the principal blame for launching the catastrophic conflict where it rightly belongs: on Austria and Germany; and to argue unashamedly that Britain was right – politically and morally – to fight it.
In advancing these arguments, Hastings takes on two foes: first, revisionist historians such as Cambridge’s Prof Christopher Clark who have recently sought to exculpate Germany and put tiny Serbia in the dock as the chief villain, for organising or conniving in the assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand at Sarajevo – the spark that gave Vienna and Berlin a perfect excuse to set off the conflagration.
Hastings’s second adversary is more amorphous: what he calls “the poets’ view” of the war as a futile struggle for a few blood-drenched yards of mud, which wasted a whole generation, solved nothing and which Britain should have steered clear of, allowing those funny foreign fellows to slaughter each other without compromising its splendid isolation.
This view, propounded by various powerful voices from the great economist John Maynard Keynes in 1919 down to the scriptwriters of the television comedy Blackadder Goes Forth, has been hammered so relentlessly into our heads that it is now the received opinion on the war. So much so that the government seems unsure how to mark next year’s centenary of the conflict, both for fear of upsetting the Germans and because British public opinion generally regards it as a senseless, unmitigated tragedy.
Hastings, who received a knighthood in 2002, will have none of this. He shows how the Austrians coldly set out to destroy Serbia; how Berlin gave Vienna a “blank cheque”, assuring it of German support; how both countries ignored the certainty that Russia would pitch in on the side of its Slav protégé Serbia; and how Germany’s autocracy, under its mentally unstable Kaiser, deliberately pushed Europe over the edge. Germany recklessly gambled that Britain would stay out of the war, and that even if it did not, they could, anyhow, win it within weeks by knocking out France, before turning to deal with Russia at leisure: the same pipedream pursued by Hitler a quarter of a century later.
That's not a common view held by any serious historian (even those who assign primary responsibility to Germany), but myth-making nonsense.Replies: @Ali Choudhury
He takes the common view that the primarily culpable party was Germany which wanted its hands on White Russia in order to expand eastwards and become a genuine global superpower.
I don’t see how this is a great result for Trump. He already had a Senate majority and had no issues getting his appointees through. His behaviour has been a big turn-off to moderate suburban women, they don’t seem to care about the economy being in the best shape it has been for decades. Reagan, Clinton and Obama all lost House seats two years in when job conditions were far less benign.
Did he?
He already had a Senate majority
I'm currently reading James McPherson's Battle cry of freedom, which partly motivated my comment above; and the way he represents it, much of the Republican leadership actually despised the Know-nothings and made only some meaningless gestures towards their nativism for purely tactical reasons, without the intention of ever adopting any of their proposals on immigration and naturalization issues,
The Republican Party was able to jump-start itself into relevance so quickly in the 1850s largely because it took within its ranks many of the “Know-Nothings” who had strongly opposed crazy idealists like Emerson.
There also many similar quotes by other Republicans, e.g. Joshua Giddings called the Know-nothings "unjust, illiberal, and un-American."
"Of their principles," Lincoln said of the Know Nothings, "I think little better than I do of the slavery extensionists. . . . Our progress in degeneracy appears to me to be pretty rapid. As a nation, we began by declaring that 'all men are created equal.' We now practically read it 'all men are created equal, except negroes.' When the Know-Nothings get control, it will read 'all men are created equal, except negroes, and foreigners, and catholics.' When it comes to this I should prefer emigrating to some country where they make no pretence of loving liberty—to Russia, for instance, where despotism can be taken pure, and without the base alloy of hypocrisy."
There was the idea though that the union had to be preserved at all costs, even at the price of hundreds of thousands maimed and killed, because of America's global role as a shining exemple of republican self-government...which is just insanely ideological imo and in a line with today's ideology of global democracy promotion.
For the majority of fighting men, it was about the Union, not about slavery.
Pat Buchanan is a great man, it's unfortunate that Trump doesn't seem to be interested in listening to him.Replies: @Ali Choudhury
You’d probably be better off talking to Pat Buchanan than me.
Trump ran against Pat Buchanan for the Reform Party nomination in 2000 and lost, then denounced him for being anti-black and anti-gay. It probably galls Buchanan that Trump became President by basically stealing his clothes and calling him a racist. Back then Trump’s choice of VP would have been Oprah Winfrey.
Battle Cry of Freedom is an excellent book probably my favourite work of non-fiction. I would recommend the Shelby Foote civil war trilogy series as a follow-up. The chapters on Gettysburg are epic. Also John Keegan’s essay on Ulysses Grant from his book Mask of Command.
The Oxford history of the United states volumes seem to be pretty good in general, at least those for the 18th and 19th centuries. I read the volume about 1815-1848 by Daniel Walker Howe (What hath God wrought) a few years ago and enjoyed it a lot...even if I disliked almost all of its protagonists (apart from Henry Clay who came across like a sensible moderate, compared both with deranged Southerners dreaming of a perpetual slave empire and with sanctimonious New England Yankees). Battle cry of freedom is indeed excellent, a very gripping narrative.
Battle Cry of Freedom is an excellent book probably my favourite work of non-fiction.
Yes, no one in Germany asked Greek governments to boost public salaries by 90% in the ten years after they joined the Euro. They were only able to join by submitting fraudulent economic data. I am surprised by German bankers. You would have thought they’d have been more wary. They were also full-on participants in the US mortgage disaster. West LB is out of business and Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank have been crippled since then.
Hi Colin, see my response to A Citizen Of A Silly Country when it appears.
No, I don’t. See my response to A Citizen Of A Silly Country when it appears, thanks.
I am not blaming anyone but the Nazis for the Holocaust. I was responding to Tyrion2’s post which appeared to be asking why recent murders of whites by black racists did not attract more attention. Well, my point was the biggest episode of racial murder in the world was by a white supremacist political organisation which believed Jews were treacherous (among other things) and had to be eliminated for the good of the volk. So if another white supremacist who hates Jews comes along and racks up a double-digit death toll in a synagogue that is going to be a bigger story. I doubt anyone believes American blacks are going to embark on a program of targeted killings of whites. Up to the day of the shooting most anti-Jewish animus in the US consisted of keyboard venting. Hopefully this was a one-off and won’t inspire copycat killers looking to become celebrities.
Well, I don’t have much personal knowledge of the 60z white flight but wasn’t that driven by black crime or the fear of black crime as opposed to a spate of targeted anti-white murders plotted by political figures? Add the trend of suburbanisation and the administrative incompetence of black politicians and it’s not an ethnic cleansing that happened by wilful design.
I used to think that the antisemitic commentary around here was relatively harmless and within American First Amendment traditions but now I wonder – is such talk dangerous because it may inspire less stable individuals to violent actions?
We see the same phenomenon on Islamic forums. If you say that the West must be destroyed or the Jews must go often enough then some people are going to take it literally.
This logic could be applied to just about every category of political criticism. In practice, legal sanctions will be applied only to right-wing critiques of left-wingery.
I used to think that the antisemitic commentary around here was relatively harmless and within American First Amendment traditions but now I wonder – is such talk dangerous because it may inspire less stable individuals to violent actions?
This is why Whites need our own country. We are effectively not allowed to criticize other groups, however detrimental their behavior maybe, lest someone go out and do something stupid and counterproductive. Multiculturalism is just not working out.Replies: @War for Blair Mountain, @Cagey Beast, @Lot, @Jefferson, @Iberiano, @Dissident, @ben tillman
I used to think that the antisemitic commentary around here was relatively harmless and within American First Amendment traditions but now I wonder – is such talk dangerous because it may inspire less stable individuals to violent actions?
What does that mean - "within American First Amendment traditions"? Is that some subtle way of saying you favor suppressing speech that you consider to be anti-semitic? Or is it an unsubtle way of saying it?
I used to think that the antisemitic commentary around here was relatively harmless and within American First Amendment traditions but now I wonder – is such talk dangerous because it may inspire less stable individuals to violent actions?
What were this guy's grievances? One tweet I saw indicated he was upset about mass immigration and Jewish support of it.
I used to think that the antisemitic commentary around here was relatively harmless and within American First Amendment traditions but now I wonder – is such talk dangerous because it may inspire less stable individuals to violent actions?
Well, it's *mostly* relatively harmless, if only because guys like Wally are such caricatures that they only inspire a bit of a giggle - and it's definitely within American first Amendment traditions - but, yes, such talk is potentially dangerous. I wish we could get a little more moderation, at whim, especially on RKU's & Giraldi's posts.Replies: @L Woods, @Jack D
I used to think that the antisemitic commentary around here was relatively harmless and within American First Amendment traditions but now I wonder – is such talk dangerous because it may inspire less stable individuals to violent actions?
Totally irrelevant.
… within American First Amendment traditions but now I wonder — is such talk dangerous because it may inspire less stable individuals to violent actions?
LOL. You are an entertaining one.
They were banned from owning land and multiple occupations. Of course they were going to practice usury, would you have preferred them to be destitute?
Believed in the superiority of whites, angry at “filthy” Jews for enabling “filthy” Muslims and highly violent central Americans to invade the US. Looks to be have been specifically triggered by the migrant caravan. Sounds pretty typical apart from thinking Trump was too soft.
Those attacks don’t particularly register since there has not been a historically recent event where blacks liquidated six million whites in death camps and mass executions etc.
You picked a great week to riff on the lunatic libs. Do we know if this guy saw Django??
To read the press, this guy is the White-Right Django, but in the old context where Django was a bad guy and not a folk-hero.
"Do we know if this guy saw Django?"
Jews are opposed to European ethnonationalism since that automatically casts them as the Other instead of being fully-fledged citizens. Therefore it is easier for them to be persecuted, denied jobs, expelled and forced to seek refuge elsewhere as happened in central Europe in the 30s, Spain in 1492, England in 1290 etc. It is not unusual for descendants of refugees to be sympathetic to others who are fleeing terrible conditions for a better life. Trump’s rhetoric is anathema to them as it directly conflicts with their conception of the US as a safe harbour for refugees.
Attacks like this will probably become more frequent as the Hispanic demographic transformation of the US becomes more apparent to the marginal cases and social media use ramps up mental illness.
I agree, the euro has been a big drag on those economies, but it cannot be blamed for the major issues they face, Nobody asked Greece to accumulate a debt mountain, Spain’s economy has managed to grow by 50% since 1997 compared to 10% in Italy, Spaniards now are richer than Italians in PPP terms which few would have predicted in the 1990s. The euro was an idiotic idea that really should only have been adopted by Germany and the Benelux countries, But it doesn’t look like there is much of a constituency for trying to exit it.
Kazakhastan is 63% Kazakh. Azerbaijan is 92% Azeri, Russia is 81% ethnic Russian and Poland is 97% Polish . Makes more sense to compare Russia to another large historically Christian, Slavic former communist country no? Russia’s industrial base was probably in much better shape than Poland’s at the end of WW2 so it was probably starting from a healthier position although that’s just a guess on my part.
Greece is highly corrupt, tax evasion and bribery are baked into economic life there. After they joined the euro in 2001 by lying about their economic performance, they raised public sector salaries by 90% over the next ten years. Thst wss thanks to bankers assuming it was as safe to lend to them as any other European country. Now they cry over the austerity that was a self-created disaster. By rights they shoukd have been thrown out of the euro and left to fend for themselves. Other than shipping and tourism I doubt they were competitive at anything.
Italy had four recessions between 2000 and 2010 and an annual growth rate of 0.25%, up there with Haiti and Zimbabwe. That is not because of the euro but because the domestic economy is riddled with regulations designed to protect special interests. Up until last year it was illegal for an Italian pharmacist to own more than one pharmacy. Unless a bonfire is made of those of all of those backward socialistic measures the country will continue to slowly circle around the plughole.
In the last ten years the US has mostly avoided committing major foreign policy errors like engaging in costly shooting wars. The economy continues to fire on all cylinders. All they need to do is continue as they are.
Well, Europe is already rich. Russia not so much and should at least be trying to match Polish growth rates – Polish GDP rose by 5.2% in H1 and this in a country with no energy resources to export. Long-term China will be a genuine global superpower. Before then there will be a good decade or two where growth will be nowhere near as strong due to the catastrophic debt built up. The US will remain dominant for at least that period.
The US is far richer and much more economically powerful than its competitors and its economy is vigorously surging ahead while China stagnates thanks to its debt load. Russia has a one-horse economy that is about as large as the Benelux region while having five times the population. Outside of corrupt basket-cases like Greece and Italy the rest of Europe is doing fine.
Nice - do you still remember the first time you guys laid eyes on the Kaaba? I think it hits everyone the same - you can barely see past all the tears.
My wife and I went to Mecca after our honeymoon for Umrah
Well worth it - if you do, convey my salaam to him. I'll do the same on your behalf if I get a chance to go; my wife has really been wanting to plan a trip (we have to wait a few years to be able to leave my son in someone else's care due to his Type 1 diabetes).
I wouldn’t mind making a separate trip there if getting a tourism visa just for that is straightforward
Definitely. Sometimes Shaykh Hamza Yusuf or others do like a week-long trip along with immersion in one or other Islamic subject - I'd love to do something like that.
If you come to Europe, I would really recommend a trip to Cordoba, Granada and Seville.
Yeah, seeing the Kaabah up close is pretty awesome. I was a bit surprised by how casually some people were taking the experience, one guy was doing his tawaaf while trying to sort out his travel itinerary on his phone. Very humbling to see the physically infirm there and those for whom this would likely be their one and only foreign trip.
I don’t see that happening. The Chi-Coms are very concerned about potential internal threats and spend more money on state security than they do on their armed forces. What Muslims do outside of China’s borders is of no concern to them.
My wife and I went to Mecca after our honeymoon for Umrah at her suggestion. That’s the only time we have been to Saudi Arabia. Given the limited time we weren’t able to go to Madinah. If we don’t go for hajj any time soon, I wouldn’t mind making a separate trip there if getting a tourism visa just for that is straightforward. Cairo, Samarkand and Isfahan are places I am more keen on seeing though. If you come to Europe, I would really recommend a trip to Cordoba, Granada and Seville. We listened to the Atif Aslam Coke Studios cover continuously in that period.
Nice - do you still remember the first time you guys laid eyes on the Kaaba? I think it hits everyone the same - you can barely see past all the tears.
My wife and I went to Mecca after our honeymoon for Umrah
Well worth it - if you do, convey my salaam to him. I'll do the same on your behalf if I get a chance to go; my wife has really been wanting to plan a trip (we have to wait a few years to be able to leave my son in someone else's care due to his Type 1 diabetes).
I wouldn’t mind making a separate trip there if getting a tourism visa just for that is straightforward
Definitely. Sometimes Shaykh Hamza Yusuf or others do like a week-long trip along with immersion in one or other Islamic subject - I'd love to do something like that.
If you come to Europe, I would really recommend a trip to Cordoba, Granada and Seville.
I thought America was in the midst of a civil war where both sides were too lazy to shoot each other. Looks like that is changing. Still doesn’t look like there is a cause like slavery that would generate major bloodshed.
Well, country having a "mental/emotional breakdown" is not the same as civil war. Mental problems can happen when a country doesn't have enough real problems. A lot of the crazy behaviour in American politics, particularly in the liberal side, is probably simple symptoms of "affluenza".
America was in the midst of a civil war where both sides were too lazy to shoot each other
Try to read this all the way through without vomiting.
Because the two key inputs needed for a high-functioning education system are smart students and capable teachers. Large class sizes are distinctly less important.
The ECHR is,surprisingly conservative on issues of freedom of expression as they relate to religion.
On 25 November 1996, the European Rights decided in the Wingrove case that the refusal to certificate in respect of a video work considered blasphemous, was not in breach of Article 10 of the European Convention of Human Rights ( see also the decision by the European Court of Human Rights in the Case of Otto Preminger vs. Austria of 20 September 1994, Series A vol. 295, IRIS 1995-1:3).
Nigel Wingrove, a film director residing in London, was refused a certificate by the British Board of Film Classification, because his videofilm “Visions of Ecstasy” was considered as blasphemous. The film evocates the erotic fantasies of a sixteenth century Carmelite nun, St Teresa of Avila, her sexual passions in the film being focused inter alia on the figure of the crucified Christ. As a result of the Board’s determination, Wingrove would have committed an offence under the Video Recordings Act 1984 if he were to supply the video in any manner, whether or not for reward. The director’s appeal was rejected by the Video Appeals Committee. Wingrove applied to the European Commission of Human Rights, relying on Article 10 of the European Convention for the protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms.
Although the Commission in its report of 10 January 1995 ( see IRIS 1995-5:4) expressed the opinion that there had been a violation of Article 10 of the Convention, the Court comes to the conclusion, by seven votes to two, that there had been no violation of the applicant’s freedom of (artistic) expression, the British authorities being fully entitled to consider that the impugned measure was justified as being necessary in a democratic society for the protection of the rights of others. The Court underlined that whereas there is little scope for restrictions on political speech or on debate of questions of public interest, a wider margin of appreciation is available to the national authorities restricting freedom of expression in relation to matters within the sphere of morals or especially, religion.
Ethiopian Airlines is doing well and set to become Africa’s largest airline by 2025.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-airlines/ethiopian-airlines-to-step-up-expansion-with-more-deals-and-jets-idUKKBN1I81N5
Fantastic review, great writing.
As long as they have the Holy Cities, that tourism will never dry up.
foreign investment and tourism
Let's pray that it is clean if it does indeed happen, because the situation in the ME could go from bad to very, very bad.
I look forward to the inevitable coup.
Not the religious tourism, their attempts to attract Western leisure travel with Sharm-el-Sheik and Dubai type resorts.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/saudi-arabia-issue-tourist-visa/
The Iranians have probably ruptured both lungs with their laughter. The sequence of disintegrating cover stories by the Saudis has been hilarious. MBS’ dream of foreign investment and tourism has probably bitten the dust forever. Couldn’t have happened to a nicer person. I look forward to the inevitable coup.
As long as they have the Holy Cities, that tourism will never dry up.
foreign investment and tourism
Let's pray that it is clean if it does indeed happen, because the situation in the ME could go from bad to very, very bad.
I look forward to the inevitable coup.
I would guess most German emigration is to other German-speaking countries, the Benlux region and Spain and Portugal for retirees. The Anglosphere is too chaotic and informal except for those expressly wishing to escape the formality and coldness of German society, Few Germans could abide the British transport system and NHS. Central and Eastern Europe with the exception of maybe Prague would be too backward for the west Germans. I think the Netherlands has a large German diaspora which makes sense as it is a halfway house between the UK and Germany plus it is pretty close to home.
Which Englishman is being referred to here? The typical English genotype has close to nil DNA from eastern Poland..
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/generation-zyklon-in-sweden/?highlight=Grandfather#comment-2347371
Anyway about half of Germany’s population of foreigners is from Europe, Ukraine, Russia, the US etc. so the 42% of children under six are unlikely to be all Syrians, Afghans and Iraqis. A little surprised Germany managed to avoid having Somali migration.
No, we have them (even if in "limited" numbers so far):
A little surprised Germany managed to avoid having Somali migration.
All the Pakistanis and Bangladeshis I know have had nothing but positive interaction with Indian Hindus. My brother in law roomed with several in a house-share while he was doing his masters in a European university and had a great time. That being said my wife’s Indian Muslim acquaintances have said discrimination in India is quite evident and especially pronounced if you known to be religious.
If you think his strategy was evil, you should hear about the guy he was up against.
The discrimination goes beyond simple class-based differences and has the same connotations of certain castes and ethnic groupings being unclean, inferior and not fit to enter your home or eat from the same table. Which is from the influence of Hinduism on Indo-Islam.
https://tribune.com.pk/story/357765/pakistans-caste-system-the-untouchables-struggle/
Jinnah was probably the most remarkable Muslim of the 20th century. A thorough constitutionalist who believed strongly in secular government and rule by law, who created a new nation state by force of personality. If he had lived an additional 20 years, South Asia would have been much better off. Pakistan has had one idiot after another since with the current prime minister being a moronic cricketer trying to crowd-fund a dam that the country cannot afford, does not need and would be sited in an earthquake-prone zone. Compared to what we have had, someone who liked whiskey and ham sandwiches and had a non-Muslim teenage wife with a penchant for revealing saris were very minor flaws.
The only person I know who has expressed the same opinion on how Pakistan was an own-goal for India’s Muslims is my father who reckons Hindus were thoroughly cowed by a thousand years of conquest and would have stayed under the Muslim thumb in an undivided sub-continent. That is a complete pipe-dream. Hindus were in thorough control of the professions, bureaucracy, academia and commercial classes. They were going to be in complete control. Pakistan was a necessity for freedom from eternal Hindu domination.
I can’t think of any Muslim prayer sermon I have heard where the benefits of enjoying 72 virgins has been given as a reason for being a good Muslim. The emphasis is pretty much always on how terrible the fires of hell are for those who do wrong.
I don’t believe that is correct. The leadership elite of major oil-producing Muslim states don’t particularly care about the fate of Muslims elsewhere. They need the rest of the world, particularly the industrialised non-Muslims, buying their energy resources far more than they need the approval of co-religionists. There is nothing to stop mass deportations now if the impetus existed. No one has threatened to stop fuel sales to Myanmar and Aramco will keep on building its refinery in Maharashtra even if the Bangladeshi illegal immigrants in Assam are deported en masse.
Bullshit, historically speaking. You made two errors:
Constantinople would have probably remained in Christian hands had the Greek Orthodox church accepted the supremacy of the Church of Rome and been able to call on Western aid.
Did the Council of Florence make much difference? I thought the attempt at resolving the Great Schism didn’t come to anything in the end and the anti-unionist Orthodox won out.
It destroyed what was left of Byzantine morale when morale was needed most, and alienated the people who conceivably could have helped Byzantium.
I thought the attempt at resolving the Great Schism didn’t come to anything
Yes, the treatment of arzal Muslims is pretty disgusting. Pakistani society is one where the poor are ruthlessly exploited and whipped by the upper classes, an unfortunate legacy of the long exposure to Hinduism. That was retained while the positive Hindu influences such as the preference for Sufism has been lost with disastrous consequences. At least conditions for lower class Muslims have improved substantially in Bangladesh, the true heir of Jinnah’s legacy. Only 9% of the population is below the extreme poverty line compared to 82% in 1972.
It would be nice if the Indian government and BJP could say they have no intention of absorbing Pakistan. That might inhibit the power of the kleptocratic generals and their idiotic attempts to wage jihadist war on India. The country is likely headed to ruin in any case.
Hagia Sophia has been a museum for the past eighty years or so. I would have thought a Hellenophile would have visited it. Constantinople would have probably remained in Christian hands had the Greek Orthodox church accepted the supremacy of the Church of Rome and been able to call on Western aid. It might have been conquered by Russia in the late nineteenth century if Britain had not made a concerted effort to keep them away from control of the sea of Marnara. Now who would conquer it? The broke Greeks? The post-Christian West?
Anyway, interesting to note the centres of the anti-Erdogan vote are areas where there was a heavy Greek presence pre-Ww1.
Bullshit, historically speaking. You made two errors:
Constantinople would have probably remained in Christian hands had the Greek Orthodox church accepted the supremacy of the Church of Rome and been able to call on Western aid.
I am not sure why you are so downbeat. The Irish diaspora is huge. Now that Ireland itself is a prospering country it may well see a substantial rise in population, it has already grown by 40% since 1990. It is very scarcely peopled given the size of the landmass and temperate climate.
The losses that occurred were in large part due to the supreme unattractiveness of Hinduism for those unfortunate to be born in the wrong sort of caste.
Europe already had its homogenisation when Germans were pushed out of every non-German European country at the end of WW2. That was partially responsible for the long European peace as Germany’s impetus to create Magna Germania out of Eastern and Central Europe was abolished.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_and_expulsion_of_Germans_(1944–50)
Unlikely to be replicable as it ultimately took ten combined years of vicious land warfare to harden attitudes sufficiently such that expulsions went off without a murmur.
That industrial policy would work out well for the high-IQ minority but not for the mass of the country which is poor, unskilled and not capable of working in knowledge-intensive industries. They need uplifting before they can progress. I would invite you to read the book below by Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets at Morgan Stanley. It is from here I have been cribbing the points on the importance of manufacturing for generating widespread prosperity and why India is weak in this department.
https://www.dhakatribune.com/opinion/op-ed/2018/10/17/bangladesh-is-better-off-than-india
Another good article on Bangladeshi progress. It already has lower infant mortality and higher life expectancy than India. Growth for 2018-19 projected at 7.5% compared to 7.3% for India per the ADB. If this keeps up, it will surpass India’s per capita income by 2020. Bangladeshi per capita income grey by 39% between 2013-16 compared to 14% for India per the UN. Article states a key advantage is Bangladeshi labour law makes it much easier for cheap labour operations to prosper.
India may well outperform China over the next ten to fifteen years due to the titanic amount of unpayable debt that has built up in the PRC financial system. Beyond that the future of Asia is still likely to be China’s. India’s highly onerous labour laws severely discourage the formation of large, efficient manufacturers. Small-scale, informal one-man operations account for close to 40% of the Indian manufacturing workforce, it was 19% in 1989. It does not appear the government has prioritised investing in ports, railways, roads power stations etc. unlike China where the highways are world-class. Even agarbatti is mostly manufactured now in Vietnam.
Manufacturing will probably keep bumping along at 15% of GDP where it has been for decades (40% in China, 28% in Bangladesh) while Vietnam and Thailand also continue to advance and develop quickly. Modi seems more interested in developing high skill, low employment industries like solar power and defence equipment rather than basic low-end factories doing things like garment manufacturing, toy assembly, furniture assembly which is the path China followed and the rest of Asia is emulating. That catapulted their poor into the middle class.
That’s a rather weird question. Why would they want their co-religionists and fellow citizens to become extinct?
Anecdotes never beats data. The data quite clearly states that India's share of manufacturing as a percentage of its GDP has not moved much. Modi promised 25% by 2022. It has largely remained flat in the 15-17% range. In fact, according to World Bank data, the latest figure is only 14.9% in 2017. India peaked back in 1995 with only 18.5%. China managed to achieve over 30% consistently for decades. Modi also promised 100 million jobs by 2022 and to double farmer incomes. The RBI - the central bank of India - recently came out with a report stating that there has been no inflation-adjusted growth in rural wages for three years. The employment problems of India are now well-known, with its economists now engaged in a vicious back-and-forth debate on methodology. The government's statisticians are constantly moving from one target to Another in a manic search of jobs being created out of thin air, the latest being the EPFO thesis, which has already been debunked. But that is for another debate.
This story has a somewhat happy ending India produces well over 100 million mobile handsets today
I would argue that China's problems were in fact greater than India's in the 50s, 60s and early 70s due to the unique insanities of Maoism. When China liberalised their economy, they didn't do it in a shock doctrine type of approach; instead they took a very pragmatic route. They kept the old statist institutions intact but allowed any surplus production to be sold at a profit. Only gradually did they (partially) dismantle these institutions. Their SEZ strategy followed a similar pattern. Select a few areas in the country and do reform experiments there. If it works, keep it and roll it out and if it doesn't, scrap it. Very sensible in stark contrast to blind shock doctrine idiocy. Even today they have a large SOE sector. In South Korea, the chaebols continued getting very heavy discounts and subsidies from the state (but there were still some strings attached to performance targets). The Keiretsu in Japan had a similar function.This is "state-led capitalism", and it worked wonders for East Asia. I don't really buy the argument, often advanced by Indian liberal economists, that it was too much state involvement that held India back in the 50s, 60s and 70s even as East Asia advanced. The Licence Raj was backwards and needed to be dismantled, but India still had a system far less insane than China up to the mid-80s. India should have grown far faster for the first 35 years of its independence. The primary failures were in factor markets. The excuse that India's diversity is to blame is not convincing either. Europe has similar kinds of diversity, as you noted, and Europe has gone to two bloody world wars against itself, yet it is a very rich continent today. Even the poorest countries (Serbia, Albania) are rapidly reaching the median LatAm-level of prosperity, and will likely surpass it soon. I've also heard the argument that democracy is to blame, but if democracy was the problem then why is the US so rich? The US also had a very bloody civil war and the slavery question nearly destroyed the country. The caste system excuse is more plausible to me, and I've hinted at it when explaining the failed educational choices made. However, I do think there were some general policy failures in India which could not be explained by sociological factors but simply by rank incompetence. Nehru chose the Soviet heavy industrialisation model in the 1950s and this didn't really change that much for decades. We tend to forget this now but it was not at all clear that the SU would fail if you were a developing country in the 1950s. They had a very strong growth record and they had created a series of impressive industries. The Maddison database confirms that the SU would continue to rack up strong growth at least until the early 1970s before its inherent contradictions could no longer be ignored. So why was it so wrong? Because by the 1950s, the SU had already solved many basic issues of literacy and health (even if AK likes to remind us, that the Russian Empire had begun this process). Therefore the SU model was already quite advanced, because it was capital intensive. If you're a poor country you have lots of cheap labour but very little capital. So it stands to reason that you shouldn't select a model which requires a lot of capital but relatively little labour. But that's what India did.Incidentially, even today most of India's manufacturing is concentrated in capital intensive industries. China and East Asia focused on light and basic manufacturing first (textiles, toys, furniture and low-end assembly) precisely in order to make the farm-to-factory structural transformation as smooth and rapid as possible. Only later did it focus more significantly on heavy industries.Should we be harsh on India's rulers for betting on the wrong model? In my view, yes. While we today often talk of an 'East Asian' model, in reality, much of that was already invented in the West in earlier centuries. Germany's List wrote a very influential book on the topic and the manufacturing-led growth model was one in which basically all major Western economies followed. India's failure to understand that it needed to adapt its economic model to its factor endowments continues to haunt it until this day and all the excuses (diversity, democracy etc) are unconvincing to me. I also think that the "legacy of colonialism" excuse is largely bogus. It was simply a policy failure. A policy failure which India eventually corrected and has enjoyed 40 years of solid growth as a result, but it never grew as fast as China and it has failed to give adequate employment to its masses, and even those who do find work are often in contract and informal work, which hinders productivity growth and skill development. India will contnue to grow reasonably rapidly because it is still very poor, but we shouldn't forget that it's nominal income per capita is lower than Nigeria's. It could quadruple its income and still be poorer than Brazil. That's also where it is likely to end up, in terms of economic development.Replies: @Talha, @Talha, @Vishnugupta, @Ali Choudhury, @Thorfinnsson, @Lin
India and China are two completely different political animals.China is the worlds largest unitary state which is for all practical purposes uniracial.
India is a United States of Europe type political entity with 18 major linguistic groups with none in a position to dominate the Indian state like say Russians dominated the USSR or the Prusssians dominated the German Empire and hundreds of other minor groups allied to one or more of these groups.
Exactly, they have built an educational system and economy that works well for the high IQ minority but not for the rest. Some Indians will do exceptionally well in the globalised economy, India as a whole will continue to amble along.
As for Bangladesh, not only is it dependent on one low end industry, i.e garment manufacturing. Unlike other countries it competes with, it has no capability in basic manufacturing
The background story on how Samsung went about looking for a location to build their big smartphone ecosystem back in 2010 is interesting. They were initially thinking about Bangladesh but there wasn’t enough space and the transport infrastructure was too poor, as well as intermittent power supply. So they went for Vietnam. The rest is history. Today, Samsung accounts for a quarter of Vietnam’s exports and they have acted as a magnet for other manufacturing companies, first from Korea but increasingly from Taiwan and mainland China.
That story is a microcosm of why China did better than India. While India has a much more diversified export basket than Bangladesh, it simply failed to boom as much as China for similar reasons (poor infrastructure, intermittent and expensive energy, a lot of bureaucracy etc). All those factors are now getting better, but the competition has gotten better, too.
Furthermore, India’s advanced export basket is on account for a cardinal first-order mistake it committed in the 40s and 50s. Unlike China, it did not build out a large primary and secondary school system first, instead it heavily invested in IITs and IIMs and other prestige instituions. In large part because it was elite Brahims who set policy and they were thinking mostly of their own progeny.The result was that the Indian space program was far ahead of China’s, but the Chinese built a much stronger industrial base and have since easily surpassed India’s space program.
I disagree with your ranking of Pakistan over Bangladesh. Bangladesh isn’t going begging to the IMF the way Pakistan just did last week. Next year, Bangladesh will have a substantially higher per capita income than Pakistan in current $, in part because the pakistani rupee has been systematically devalued due to a bloated CAD. Pakistan actually exports less today in inflation-adjusted terms than it did five years ago, even as imports have zoomed. They just asked for their 18th(!) IMF bailout since 1980. It’s like Greece but with 200 million population, islamic fundamentalism and nukes.
This is an interesting point and I would generally agree. However, India has to be given credit as she is trying to do all this; a) as a multi-ethnic, multi-cultural, multi-lingual, multi-religious country (sub-continent really) and b) without a massive amount of bloodshed.If she did this the China way, the Brahmins would have been dragged out and shot by the lower castes or driven out into Sri Lanka or something and millions would have starved due to sudden and drastic land reforms to undo remnants of the feudal past. Give India the space of about 30 years and allow her to kill off around 100 million people and you'll be surprised where she can get to. Otherwise, well...democracy is quite messy.
In large part because it was elite Brahims who set policy and they were thinking mostly of their own progeny.The result was that the Indian space program was far ahead of China’s, but the Chinese built a much stronger industrial base and have since easily surpassed India’s space program.
Yeah, kind of scary.Peace.
It’s like Greece but with 200 million population, islamic fundamentalism and nukes.
The screwed up hindu caste system has been a huge handicap for India.
Brahims who set policy.....were thinking mostly of their own progeny.
Bangladesh, now, has a population density higher than any other large country, and similar to that of Bermuda. However, it is only about a sixth as densely populated as city states such as Singapore or Hong Kong.
The population density in South Asia is simply horrifying to me.
This is correct however one needs to correct for livable land area.
Belgium and Netherlands is almost completely livable.
Pakistan OTOH 60% of its area is arid Balochistan or North West Pakhtoon tribal land.Only Punjab and a part of Sindh are capable of dense habitation.
Egypt is also an example of exceptional population density you basically have a population of Germany on a livable area along the Nile river the size of Netherlands.The rest of the country is desert.
Persian script not Bengali script. You are being a little dismissive of Bangladesh, it is quite an achievement to have gone from having 60% of Pakistan’s GDP per capita roughly forty years ago to surpassing it last year. Somewhat sensibly they have not wasted their money on armaments or an ego-boosting space program.
Interesting that AK posted this article, I sent Zaigham Khan a link to the Ethiopia comment here at Unz a few days ago.
I think he meant that Bengalis have kept the Bengali script in lieu of the Persian/Arabic script. Which is pretty cool, when I come across those Qur'ans in the mosque with Bengali translation and it has the funny looking letters (side by side with Arabic) that I have no clue how to read. Many of our educated Bengali brothers however have a leg up since they can often understand and speak Urdu/Hindi fairly well along with Bangla.
Persian script not Bengali script.
The little engine that could!
to surpassing it last year