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  • @Dmitry
    Here's how Moscow is going faster with electric buses than even London, let alone New York.

    New York has 25 electric buses, London has 485 electric buses, (Mosgortrans) Moscow alone has over 600 now and will have over 1000 electric buses by end of this year.

    All these cities have become less cities than networks of highways that some buildings attached to, and extremely fast need to find ways to improve their air quality (reduction of traffic noise from electric motors will be a side benefit).


    Moscow goes green: Russian capital eyes fully electric bus fleet by 2030

    Moscow plans to nearly quadruple the number of electric buses it operates in coming years and replace all petrol or diesel-powered public transport vehicles with greener alternatives by 2030, a senior city transport official has said.

    Mosgortrans, which runs Moscow’s vast bus and tram network, said its fleet of around 600 electric buses would be expanded by 400 vehicles by the year-end, by another 420 the following year, and then by 855, bringing the fleet to more than 2,000 e-buses.

    “Every year the plan will be to replace all wheeled public transport vehicles with electric buses,” said Artyom Burlakov, deputy head of the innovative projects department at Mosgortrans.

    Environmental activists have welcomed the initiative.
     

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-environment-electric-buses-idUSKBN2AJ1J5

    Replies: @g2k, @Svevlad

    Given that they already have a trolleybubus infrastructure and manufacturing capacity, it’s not that hard. Just put batteries in the trolleybusses and they can charge whilst on the wires.

  • Yesterday the Levada Center released a new poll on vaccines that tends to confirm my contention that Russia's tawdry pace of vaccinations is not a result of supply constraints, but the banal fact that many Russians (including in older age groups) would simply rather catch Corona than get vaccinated. The first observation is that the...
  • @g2k
    Given that Italy's Mote-Carlo, San Marino, one of the richest, most "civilized-European" places on earth bagged enough Sputnik in the spring to snuff out it's second wave, and didn't turn it's nose up at it, you've thought it would be the prestige option for the Jean Jaques crowd. Maybe they should use that fact in pro-sputnik propaganda.

    theguardian.com/world/2021/may/19/we-booked-straight-away-first-covid-vaccine-tourists-arrive-in-san-marino

    Replies: @g2k

  • g2k says:

    Given that Italy’s Mote-Carlo, San Marino, one of the richest, most “civilized-European” places on earth bagged enough Sputnik in the spring to snuff out it’s second wave, and didn’t turn it’s nose up at it, you’ve thought it would be the prestige option for the Jean Jaques crowd. Maybe they should use that fact in pro-sputnik propaganda.

    theguardian.com/world/2021/may/19/we-booked-straight-away-first-covid-vaccine-tourists-arrive-in-san-marino

  • I don't have the reputation of someone who stans for Russia's record on dealing with Corona. I was writing about how Russian official statistics were massively understating Corona mortality more than a year ago, before Western journalists generally noticed it, and followed that theme up in the subsequent months. Ironically, Russia's development of one of...
  • @Anatoly Karlin
    @utu

    For the umpteenth time (though you seem to be dead-set on not getting it), Sputnik V has been accessible to everyone for more than a couple of months now. In Jan-Feb it was rationed for the elderly and critical workers, then opened up to everyone else once the non-covidiot pensioners had had their shots.

    The only result of your proposals would have been millions of the first Sputnik V dose (the easier to produce component that is actually exported) thrown away. The vaccination rate would still be the 13% or so that it is today.

    Replies: @g2k

    Hate to be devil’s advocate here, but, whilst anyone can get it relatively easily now, there’s obviously low demand, if everybody suddenly started becoming good citizens, would supply shortages not then start to be an issue? (That’s meant as a question, not a statement)

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @g2k

    Correct. But in that case, it is exports that are going to be squeezed. The demand surge will need to be 2x+ for supply constraints to kick in. A surge on that scale seems unlikely.

  • g2k says:
    @Triteleia Laxa
    @g2k

    Do you know any 20 somethings? Ask them about their friends and Covid right now.

    Replies: @g2k

    If you’re a twenty something with a health condition that makes you more susceptible to a nasty case of corona then you’d have been offered both jabs months ago.

    The interesting thing about WFH is that a few of my colleagues caught this and continued to work through it. One was completely asymptomatic, the other had flu-like symptoms for a week with anosmia that took about six weeks to resolve. Both caught it (if they were being honest) from their spouses who caught it at work.

    That’s anecdotal of course. It’s been known for months that a healthy 20-something has a very low chance of dying of this thing and a low but non-trivial chance of getting very sick. Anosmia dragging on for weeks is probably very unpleasant, but then so are endless restrictions. I’ve said this many times before, but it just highlights how nuts things were for Yanks: going on a date was a criminal offense from October to May in most of the UK and our health Taliban was screaming to prevent that stupid rule being relaxed then.

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
  • g2k says:
    @The Big Red Scary
    I got COVID the old-fashioned way, but am considering getting vaxxed anyway, and my options are Sputnik or EpiVacCorona.

    What’s with EpiVacCorona? Supposedly, there is some Telegram of trial participants complaining about lack of effectivity and illness after the second shot. Legit, or more black PR?

    Replies: @g2k, @melanf

    If Sputnik is the Russian equivalent of AstraZeneca and EpiVac akin to Phizer/Modena then the latter will probably have fewer or no side effects. Anecdotally, everyone I know who took the AZ one had mild flu-like symptoms the following day (I think AK said he had that from Sputnik, can’t remember), everyone (including myself) who took the Phizer one had a mildly sore arm the following day, about half as bad as from a flu shot.

    • Replies: @Vishnugupta
    @g2k

    Epivac corona is not an mRNA vaccine but a peptide based vaccine.

    Its efficacy data is iffy and has been cleared for use in Turkmenistan besides Russia.

    Sputnik is similar to AZ but uses two different human viruses as carriers instead of a Chimpanzee virus in the case of AstraZeneca.

    Astra Zeneca has proved very effective in preventing hospitalization during the second covid wave in India. 100% of the people covered by my company insurance who took one dose of it(i.e. a sample of 1000 people all above 45 years of age) either did not get Covid or had mild symptoms and none required hospitalization or supplemental oxygen.

    There are similar anecdotal evidence of its effectiveness across the country.

    Sputnik should be even better after two doses.

    Replies: @sher singh

    , @melanf
    @g2k


    If Sputnik is the Russian equivalent of AstraZeneca and EpiVac akin to Phizer/Modena then the latter will probably have fewer or no side effects.
     
    Sputnik is NOT an analog of Astrazeneca, but rather a combination of the Covidence and Johnson &Johnson vaccines. In terms of side effects and effectiveness, the Sputnik roughly corresponds to mRNA vaccines (judging by the information that is known). EpiVacCorona is apparently a non-working vaccine.

    no side effects.
     
    These vaccines have side effects

    https://ic.pics.livejournal.com/prof_afv/86528370/48828/48828_original.png

    Replies: @Ultrafart the Brave

  • g2k says:
    @Triteleia Laxa
    @g2k

    Paragraphs!


    They can get away with such brazen dishonesty because a large majority of the country is still hysterical about this
     
    1. Changing your plans according to changes in the situation is not "brazen dishonesty".

    2. The country wants an ultra low risk approach to opening up; so it makes sense for the democratically elected government to give it to them.

    I also hate lockdowns, but the above two facts remain true.

    Replies: @g2k, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    2. The country wants an ultra low risk approach to opening up; so it makes sense for the democratically elected government to give it to them.

    Ultra low risk is taking precautions until they’ve had the vaccine, this is more like zero hypothetical risk at extreme cost to themselves and others, without any acceptable end. Plus, there’s also the fact that any country that does achieve “Zero Covid” can then look forward to the very real risk of east German style exit visas for years like Australia.

    If people, after having two doses of a vaccine which prevents transmission by well over ninety percent, and serious illness/death by considerably more, for a disease with a not hideously high fatality rate to start with, in a largely vaccinated population with very low circulation anyway are still demanding others wear rags across their faces and social distance with the full force of the law, then the non-hysterical 30% or so of the population are quite morally correct to tell them to go and do one.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @g2k

    Do you know any 20 somethings? Ask them about their friends and Covid right now.

    Replies: @g2k

    , @Dmitry
    @g2k


    non-hysterical 30%

     

    Wearing masks adequately (especially ffp2 or ffp3) and following anti-epidemic guidelines like ventilation of indoor spaces, would have saved millions of lives in the world, saved millions of hours of illness, reduced the need for lockdowns, and also reduced the need for vaccine.

    non-hysterical 30%

     

    Responsible behaviour and even lockdowns (which were required to a greater extent, due to irresponsible behaviour of many individuals), was also for most citizens, not very inconvenient.

    So you have to see a film at home, instead of cinema. Or go to takeaway instead of eating in a restaurant. Or meet with 3 friends instead of 6. Or to spend time with your children at home.

    That any people (excluding of owners of small businesses, who have their economic self-interest) was complaining about this during a pandemic in which risks were not fully known and would be solved easier early than late, shows how spoilt many citizens of first world countries have become.

    We see effects of historically unprecedented levels of luxury and comfort on an animal, who was designed for, and for most of its history, not one thousandth of the convenience experienced in daily life of average people living in 21st century developed countries. Psychologically, many people are not adapted for the levels of comfort and luxury they have experienced all their lives, and the result is people complaining about wearing a mask when they go to a shop.

    Replies: @Coconuts

  • g2k says:

    It looks like the uk government is about to move the goalposts, yet again, on ending the UK’s quasi-lockdown. They initially promised to end this by Easter once the very vulnerable had been vaccinated, but extended it by four months and set a ridiculously long time for reopening in order to appease the committee of mini-Fauchis they’ve delegated all of their authority to; who, surprise surprise, have asked for yet another extension. Almost all olds are fully vaccinated and a majority of the rest of the adult population has had at least one shot. There’s a combination of variant hysteria and a small uptick in cases among unvaccinated pockets and people in their teens/early 20s that’s the excuse this time. The daily deaths are in single figures. They can get away with such brazen dishonesty because a large majority of the country is still hysterical about this, regardless of their vaccination status, and will support unlimited restrictions for an unlimited amount of time. If Lemoine is telling the truth, then most of Europe is even worse. It’s ironic, that Brezhneving Russia’s not-that-great corona figures has actually resulted in the vast majority of Russians having a higher quality of life than the vast majority of Europeans probably for the first time in history.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @g2k

    Paragraphs!


    They can get away with such brazen dishonesty because a large majority of the country is still hysterical about this
     
    1. Changing your plans according to changes in the situation is not "brazen dishonesty".

    2. The country wants an ultra low risk approach to opening up; so it makes sense for the democratically elected government to give it to them.

    I also hate lockdowns, but the above two facts remain true.

    Replies: @g2k, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @g2k

    The lockdowns in the UK have clearly degenerated into some weird kind of virtue signaling spectacle a long time ago.

    Overall, Russia did well to avoid that, ergo for much of the US and East-Central Europe (my position has always been that if you're not fundamentally serious about suppressing Corona, lockdowns shouldn't be pursued). China did best overall, of course.

    , @Dmitry
    @g2k

    Boris Johnson is an incompetent leader in the pandemic - UK's weak and late lockdowns, insufficient travel restrictions, and release of coronavirus patients to elderly homes, has resulted in tens of thousands of additional deaths.

    Johnson was not insightful enough to predict the small and temporary economic impact of lockdowns*, and in early months had also seemed confused by a misunderstood concept of "herd immunity".

    However, by comparison with in Russia, UK's management of the pandemic has been competent and successful. In Russia, there have been around 550,000 deaths already from coronavirus, if excess deaths are an indicator. There has been lack of transparency in the medical statistics. And I'm not sure why people would try to excuse the blame of the authorities for the slow vaccination rate (which I had been posting about in December) or to blame citizens for this, as if vaccination rollout is not part of state capacity.


    -

    * There has been instant economic boom in response to stopping of lockdown. In other words, consumption was just temporarily delayed for a few months by lockdowns (I wrote in March 2020 https://www.unz.com/akarlin/accelerated-sinotriumph/#comment-3808161 ), without any serious economic effects - although governments' financial positions has been eroded.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Passer by

  • The YouGov poll on which animal Americans could take in a fight (covered by Sailer) was complemented by another poll asking Brits those same questions. American women sure are confident. The Brits are... realistic? (On the large animals, at any rate). Anyhow, for what little opinion (never having fought any of these animals) is worth:...
  • g2k says:
    @Joe Stalin

    Aren’t the “brown” bears in California actually black bears but with brown coloured fur, they’re smaller and a lot less apt to become aggessive.

    The definition of “win” has a lot of room for interpretation, are we talking about a theoretical fight to the death or until one gives up and runs off? Big cats are more likely to do the latter if it’s prey aggression and they encounter resistance, brown bears and boars are especially dangerous because once they’ve decided to attack, they hardly ever back down.

    • Replies: @Ultrafart the Brave
    @g2k


    Aren’t the “brown” bears in California actually black bears but with brown coloured fur, they’re smaller and a lot less apt to become aggessive.
     
    A few years back we had a news report about a Japanese tourist in California who went up to a wild black bear to feed it - so it ate him.

    He should have read the signs - "Don't feed the bears".
  • This is Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's assessment of global excess mortality from COVID-19 from the beginning until May 3, 2021. (h/t Ron Unz) You can read about the methodology here. All in all, this sadly comports with the "millions" prediction I made in February 24, 2020. While at the end of last year...
  • g2k says:

    Serbia is conspicuous by its absence. Vucic has handled things extremely well. Its politicians might be more rational than in most of Europe

    That’s interesting, because Serbia was one of the few countries to actually suffer a popular backlash against multiple lockdowns: In early summer Vucic lifted the first lockdown early, got himself reelected then reimposed it a day later. The ensuing riots, forced him to back down. Guess this might’ve made him actually take smart choices wrt corona policy unlike most of Europe whose publics still have blind trust in a lot of very incompetent health bureaucrats even now.

  • It strikes me that most of life's most exquisite comforts can be had with ~$10M or so. Apartment in the center of a world class city (luxury condo if in the Second World). Holiday home. Nice vacations and gourmet restaurants. Model-tier gf. The virgin financial docs sleuthing to suggest Bad Orange Man isn't a billionaire...
  • @Philip Owen
    20 years ago, I did a study of owner managed businesses in a particular industry ranging from 0.5m GBP to 30m GBP a year in turnover seeking potential acquisitions. It was noticeable that the owners of the smallest businesses drew out no less than the owners of the largest. The range of salaries for the owner managers was 90k to 0k GBP a year. Only the very largest paid dividends. Most cash was reinvested. The law has changed a little since then, forcing some payouts.

    Thus I conclude that "enough" at the turn of the century was about 100k GBP. This bought a 5-6 bedroom mansion with a paddock for the daughters' (wife's) ponies at the the edge of a village. Two big cars and a smaller one to pop into town. School fees and foreign holidays (sun/ski) and 2nd home somewhere in Bulgaria, definitely not Spain. Around London add 20k for higher property costs. That probably isn't more than 150k now. 200k at the outside.

    Going beyond this and buying a Ferrari instead of a Jag and a country estate rather than the former squire's mansion would seen to be a demonstration of insecurity, certainly in the UK. Even at the level described your children are in danger of losing touch with the rest of society. In Russia, the dekamillionaires I know show off more - a church on their island, houses in London, several expensive german cars with more than one chaffeur. Rich Russians send their children away to school for fear of kidnap so they send them abroad.

    That said, near me, is Atlantic College. A school for the children of the world's elite. Their father's names are on or behind brand names everywhere. It is of course, a secure clifftop location (a castle, previously occupied by Randolph Hearst). There, they have a course in charitable giving. I assume that the local children there on scholarships to introduce some social diversity are trained on how to run the charities for the paying pupils. :-)

    Replies: @g2k

    The range of salaries for the owner managers was 90k to 0k GBP a year. Only the very largest paid dividends.

    If you’re running an owner managed company, why wouldn’t you pay yourself 8k as a salary and the rest in dividends to avoid employer’s national insurance (the stupid name the uk gives to payroll tax)?

  • This week's Open Thread. Philippe Lemoine - The Case against Lockdowns. I don't agree with all of it (e.g., Ctrl-F for "centralized quarantine" shows zero hits and in retrospect, that and masks really seem to be key). But I have long since started to oppose lockdowns. If you're not fundamentally serious about or incapable of...
  • @Yellowface Anon
    @A123

    I have heard of a good number of adverse reactions (which may or may not related to vaccination) from even Sinovac's inactivated COVID vaccine, like deep pain, dizziness and even a few deaths that can be attributed to chronic conditions. Most of the dead are 60+ who should have been excluded from any sane mass vaccination regime. This means something in line with flu vaccines, but reported case by case to stoke fear. (Granted, mass vaccination means lots of normal chronic conditions become lumped to the whole vaccine thing). This gives fuel to hardline antivaxxers who thinks no COVID vaccines are acceptable since COVID is fake/all vaccines are funded by Bill Gates/the vaccination regime underpins the Great Reset...

    I doubt Russia will reach even 25% vaccinated other than introducing some form of vaccination propiska. Shamir would be surprised and griefed over how he's been supporting the fake resistance if that ever came to pass.

    Replies: @g2k

    Most of the dead are 60+ who should have been excluded from any sane mass vaccination regime.

    They’re the people who absolutely should’ve been vaccinated, after which restrictions should’ve been abandoned. Millions have now been given the various jabs available and none of them have grown two heads. Having said that, in england, over the past few days, we’ve had a parade of scientific advisors, who have our useless government by the balls, appear in the media to tell us that in three months time, when the lockdown is due to end (UK has been in quasi-lockdown since October and full lockdown since new year), it won’t actually end and masks, distancing and exit visas will be in place for years. This is with a ‘rona death rate of about 20 per day now and almost everyone likely to be fully vaccinated by then. Those “subhuman” Russians and stupid rednecks weren’t that stupid after all.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @g2k

    I have here a late reply: at least you understand now there's no clear end to all the clampdowns done in the name of COVID, since their real purpose (according to "conspiracy theorists") is to build a new society and economy under the mandate of the Great Reset.

    Don't forget you can't practically achieve mass vaccination since there will be "vaccine hesitant" people and their ranks are swelling. This feeds back into them moving the goalposts again.

  • @g2k
    @Svevlad

    Someone who's infected gets detained in an, otherwise closed down, hotel for a few weeks. If it's caught quickly enough you can prevent people from infecting everyone they live with which would be an almost certainty otherwise. You can get cases down very quickly that way as not that many people live truly a look one. Less objectionable than closing businesses and enforcing worse than sharia social distancing for months on end, but no European country has actually implemented it. I suspect that the current restrictions in Europe reflect what's tolerable to the bug-people who're responsible for them: Sitting on their asses, eating Uber-eats and watching Netflix is something they would choose to do if Corona had never existed which is why they're mystified that anyone objects, being hauled off to a 2 star hotel is not.

    Need to seriously think about emigration though if the nonsense is reimposed next winter or never properly repealed in the summer.

    Replies: @g2k

    “a look one” should be “alone”, can’t seem to edit here anymore

  • @Europe Europa
    It seems to me that many if not most anti-vaxxers are just manifesting anti-Anglo sentiment, as in they do not trust the products of the US and UK.

    I've noticed many of them do not attack Sputnik and the Chinese vaccines in the same way, many of them even have a positive view of the latter. There's a few true anti-vaxxers who wouldn't take a vaccine from anywhere, but most of it is geo-political. The EU has now even resorted to ordering Sputnik to encourage their population to get vaccinated, presumably because they think that many Europeans have a more positive view of Russia?

    Replies: @g2k, @AnonFromTN

    If there is antivaxx sentiment in Europe then most of it is due to their medical establishments intermittently banning and stoking fears over the AstraZeneca jab. The uk has jabbed around 40% of it’s population, but it’s still a criminal offense to go on a date so, from the point of view of a healthy young adult, the vaccines are the difference between neverending lockdowns with boomer removal and neverending lockdowns without.

  • @Svevlad
    I went out of the rona loop. Truly can't handle all the idiocy on all sides in the media without getting the compulsion to bathe in the blood of my enemies, so I avoid it.

    What is centralized quarantine and how is it different than a lockdown again?

    Replies: @g2k

    Someone who’s infected gets detained in an, otherwise closed down, hotel for a few weeks. If it’s caught quickly enough you can prevent people from infecting everyone they live with which would be an almost certainty otherwise. You can get cases down very quickly that way as not that many people live truly a look one. Less objectionable than closing businesses and enforcing worse than sharia social distancing for months on end, but no European country has actually implemented it. I suspect that the current restrictions in Europe reflect what’s tolerable to the bug-people who’re responsible for them: Sitting on their asses, eating Uber-eats and watching Netflix is something they would choose to do if Corona had never existed which is why they’re mystified that anyone objects, being hauled off to a 2 star hotel is not.

    Need to seriously think about emigration though if the nonsense is reimposed next winter or never properly repealed in the summer.

    • Replies: @g2k
    @g2k

    "a look one" should be "alone", can't seem to edit here anymore

  • This week's Open Thread. Some interesting posts of note: Glenn Greenwald - Journalists Start Demanding Substack Censor its Writers: to Bar Critiques of Journalists Patrick Armstrong - Lab Rats to the Front. Written at about the same time as my own Woke Mil, so I'm not the only one noticing this phenomenon. [twitter] @TheDailyMao -...
  • @Thulean Friend
    Some open threads ago, I got tremendous pushback from the usual quarter of reactionaries about how it would be impossible to make bicycling in Moscow a serious - or even primary - transportation alternative because muh snow, basically.

    This excuse about the weather needs a good debunking.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uhx-26GfCBU


    A basic rule of transportation is that induced demand need to be taken seriously. Just building more highway monstrocities won't help:

    https://i.redd.it/tjnc51aq5km61.jpg

    This kind of devastation should rightfully be called a crime against humanity.

    Yet, Moscow is still among the single worst cities in the world in car congestion & delays. Building out metros is not enough. The solution lies in shifting as many of the population onto bicycles as humanly possible. It would also solve the eye cancer of people parking on the sidewalks (so prevalent in EE countries), as cars would be relegated to a distant third or fourth among the choices people can have. It's not about asking people nicely, but to make car-usage so inconvenient and penalised so as to shift preference and behaviour. Incentives matter, after all.

    The only real constraint is political, as car cucks are the ultimate NIMBY:s here. They are the ones around who urban policy was designed for this past century and they will not let go of that privilege until you pry it from their cold, dead hands. And you should.

    Replies: @g2k

    I cycle to and from places as often as possible and enjoy it greatly. I like cycling just the way it is and the one of the big positives for me, apart from the fresh air, exercise and convenience, is the lack of the kind of bs overregulation that’s made diving miserable. I do appreciate cycle infrastructure where it exists, but personally, I’d prefer it to remain a niche form of transport and office plankton to continue to think it’s dangerous so they don’t take it up in large numbers and ruin it. If you want to cycle in Moscow, buy a bike and ride it.

  • I didn't take any good photos recently, so here's a video with creepy music instead - the better to with this scifi horror short story that I read recently, "Lena" on ems by qntm. Much darker vision than Hanson's. Though I suppose if there are trillions of ems, only a small percentage of them will...
  • @Anatoly Karlin
    @melanf

    Well there's various health rumors about Putin, but I have generally dismissed them all as ill-wishing conspiracy theories, considering they never panned out and that Putin's relatives seem to have consistently lived very long lives (esp. by 20C Russian standards). In any case, basic point that catching Corona is worse than getting a vaccine stands, esp. if you DO have preexisting health problems.

    It doesn't necessarily need to have religious motivations, vaccine skepticism is high amongst Soviet-style people too. (Decades of pushing atheism created a population highly susceptible to conspiracy theories and mystical thinking of all sorts as seen in the 1990s).

    Replies: @melanf, @Mikhail, @g2k

    Suspect it’s probably just a personal habit he seems to have where he’s extremely private with all things to do with his health; machismo, presidential image, personal preference, who knows. He’s probably had a few minor operations that nobody but a small clique knew about.

    Russia seems to have avoided the kind of hysteria which has paralysed Europe, so, as long as the vaccines are readily available and everybody who wants one can have one I don’t see the need to get upset over a few refuseniks though I’m not going to die on a hill to defend them if the hysteria gets refocused on them instead of…..people sitting in parks drinking coffee (or whatever it is this week).

    Fwiw I’ll take the vaccine at the first opportunity, and my stock argument in dealing with antivaxers is that they ought to go pet a dog… that’s got rabies then we can continue the argument six months later. Advocates of zero-covid and forever lockdowns have a certain implicit antivaxx sentiment which you need to acknowledge: “Take the vaccine by all means, but lockdowns and social distancing need to continue for months anyway” is essentially saying that they don’t work and it’s as as antivaxx as some fool saying it’ll alter your dna or let Bill Gates chip you or whatever. The difference is that the former have significantly more influence on policy.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @g2k

    Sure, I don't think any reasonable person would support lockdowns now.

  • @g2k
    @Shortsword

    I know, but maybe they were just unlucky, there's lots of other small island nations that were able to lockdown long and hard enough to get covid cases to 0 and then completely cut themselves off from the rest of the world, so that they'd never have to lockdown again:

    https://jerseyeveningpost.com/news/2020/11/07/islanders-warned-that-jersey-could-be-heading-for-another-lockdown-as-active-cases-top-100/

    https://www.itv.com/news/channel/2021-01-23/guernsey-to-enter-lockdown

    https://www.itv.com/news/granada/2021-01-05/isle-of-man-re-enters-lockdown-after-fears-of-covid-spread-in-the-community

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-australia-56035668


    only a covidiot would oppose such a strategy, what's stopping the USA and Russia? The uk has just extended lockdown by another 4 months despite vaccinating nearly a third of the population.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @g2k

    Double post, please delete

  • @That Would Be Telling
    @g2k


    only a covidiot would oppose such a [total isolation, lockdown till it's died out, then normal life except for the isolation] strategy, what’s stopping the USA and Russia? The uk has just extended lockdown by another 4 months despite vaccinating nearly a third of the population.
     
    Indeed, but for the West's ruling trash globalism and importing hordes of low IQ Third Worlders is a religion you might say; I don't know about Russia. As for the U.K., they're trying an experiment where they give everyone a single jab ASAP, with the booster at many as 12 weeks from them. Not supported by the mRNA companies which simply didn't test that regimen, but there's a good chance this is mostly harmless, and could be much better for the AZ/Oxford disappointment. Which means a large fraction of that nearly one third aren't yet properly vaccinated.

    Replies: @g2k

    Oh dear, perhaps you ought to have clicked the links. All those examples are countries that have attempted such a thing, declared success only to have outbreaks and subsequent lockdowns again,… and again……and again. They’ve also painted themselves into a corner as the likely endgame of all of this for most of the world is that corona will become endemic, defanged by vaccines quite soon in developed countries, a few years away in the rest; it’s going to be politically very difficult for them to open. Quite frankly, any benefit from reduced immigration to developed countries in such a scenario is more than counted by citizens of those countries having less freedom to travel than a medieval peasant (Australia actually has commie exit visas).

  • @Shortsword
    @g2k

    The rest of the world consists of more than small island nations.

    Replies: @g2k

    I know, but maybe they were just unlucky, there’s lots of other small island nations that were able to lockdown long and hard enough to get covid cases to 0 and then completely cut themselves off from the rest of the world, so that they’d never have to lockdown again:

    https://jerseyeveningpost.com/news/2020/11/07/islanders-warned-that-jersey-could-be-heading-for-another-lockdown-as-active-cases-top-100/

    https://www.itv.com/news/channel/2021-01-23/guernsey-to-enter-lockdown

    https://www.itv.com/news/granada/2021-01-05/isle-of-man-re-enters-lockdown-after-fears-of-covid-spread-in-the-community

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-australia-56035668

    only a covidiot would oppose such a strategy, what’s stopping the USA and Russia? The uk has just extended lockdown by another 4 months despite vaccinating nearly a third of the population.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @g2k


    only a covidiot would oppose such a [total isolation, lockdown till it's died out, then normal life except for the isolation] strategy, what’s stopping the USA and Russia? The uk has just extended lockdown by another 4 months despite vaccinating nearly a third of the population.
     
    Indeed, but for the West's ruling trash globalism and importing hordes of low IQ Third Worlders is a religion you might say; I don't know about Russia. As for the U.K., they're trying an experiment where they give everyone a single jab ASAP, with the booster at many as 12 weeks from them. Not supported by the mRNA companies which simply didn't test that regimen, but there's a good chance this is mostly harmless, and could be much better for the AZ/Oxford disappointment. Which means a large fraction of that nearly one third aren't yet properly vaccinated.

    Replies: @g2k

    , @g2k
    @g2k

    Double post, please delete

  • If only the rest of the world had copied New Zealand, then we’d have eliminated covid and there’d be no more lockdowns:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/27/new-zealand-auckland-to-go-into-seven-day-covid-lockdown

    • Replies: @Shortsword
    @g2k

    The rest of the world consists of more than small island nations.

    Replies: @g2k

    , @Abelard Lindsey
    @g2k

    Lockdowns are based on fake science.

    https://www.bworldonline.com/its-final-lockdowns-dont-work/

    Consider also that most "science" cannot be replicated and, therefor, cannot be considered legitimate science.

    https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=241683

    Replies: @reiner Tor

  • There has been a large leak of documents from the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) showing that the UK is sponsoring and providing editorial guidance to anti-Kremlin journalists, media organizations, and YouTubers as part of a £100 million plan to "tackle Kremlin disinformation" during 2018-22. Their aim, forthrightly stated, is to "[weaken] the Russian...
  • @216
    @El Dato


    The UK still hasn’t really accepted that they don’t have an overseas Empire anymore and that big dreadnoughts under the Union Jack aren’t plying the seas. So the are attackdogging where they can, namely in the general direction of Russia.

     

    The UK still has the BBC, and London is third in cultural influence after NYC and LA.

    The US Right has nowhere near the cultural influence.

    Replies: @g2k, @YetAnotherAnon

    London, at the minute, might as well have been hit by a Neutron bomb. A place where it’s illegal to sit on a park bench or go on a date will not exert much cultural influence unless this situation ends very very quickly (It won’t). I suppose this, for anyone who’s dabbled in populism,is akin to being made to smoke the whole pack; we saved “R NHS”. This will take time to filter through in peoples’ minds though.

    • Replies: @216
    @g2k

    While it's plausible to argue that London is declining in cultural influence, I don't foresee that the financial power of the City will be displaced by an Asian market until mid-century. Nor does it seem that Oxbridge will be fall in stature, indeed they may be less partisan than the US universities.

    The UK has proven welcoming to Russian, Indian and other foreign oligarchs to set up residence, and now they want to give immigration to every HKer. Unless we start to see elities staying at home, I'm not prepared to call the goose cooked.

    For example, at one point Detroit Michigan was quite influential not just industrially, but also culturally. London has a long way to fall to hit Detroit levels, or even Chicago for that matter.

  • This week's Open Thread.
  • Cryptos, in 2021 have gone beserk. Have been trading the things in an ultra conservative manner and I’m getting stupid roi.

  • @Malenfant
    @Shortsword

    https://imgur.com/pAb8gVW

    Replies: @g2k, @Shortsword

    Yanks should be grateful that their NPCs have gone down the road of mask fetishism. The official narrative from their counterparts in most of Europe is that the vaccines won’t change anything and that lockdowns and ridiculous criminally enforced social distancing will continue into 2022.

    In the UK, it might be possible,in six weeks time, to……. sit on a park bench without committing a criminal offense. This is with most over 60s vaxxed.

  • Sorry for the lack of new posts recently, have been occupied with a few other matters. Will resume very soon.
  • @Shortsword
    Is there any national numbers of vaccinations in Russia? Anyway, a quick search at least gives some up to date regional news:

    170k vaccinated in Saint Petersburg, 55k last week.

    42k vaccinated in Stavropol Krai, pace of vaccination supposedly started at 250 per day and has increased to 2.5k per day. Supposed to increase to 6k per day (no specifics of when).

    25k vaccinated in Kaluga Oblast.

    37k vaccinated in Tula Oblast. Supposed to vaccinate 10k this week.

    43k vaccinated in Saratov Oblast.

    One article seemed to indicate these numbers doesn't include military personnel and another one said that it didn't include medical personal. Perhaps it varies from region to region. These numbers are all for the first dose I think, some of the articles weren't entirely clear about it. In total it seems at most 3% of the population is vaccinated with the first dose but the pace of vaccination is continually increasing.

    Hardly numbers to brag about. At best it's about as good as the EU countries that are doing the worst. Still a big win compared to buying Western vaccine of course and buying Western vaccine probably would have end up being even slower anyway. Plenty of countries are buying Sputnik V and a few are supposed to produce it themselves so in the end it will end up being a widely used vaccine.

    Replies: @g2k, @Gerard1234

    It’s not that great, but the sense of urgency is not that great as the government and wider society there seem to have taken this on the chin and life is pretty much normal-ish. It’s probably much easier to do this when you don’t have a hysterical mass media blaming you for every single covid death, but it’s still an achievement.

    In the uk I was pleasantly surprised by the speed of the vaccine rollout, but unpleasantly unsurprised to find out that it hasn’t made any difference to the government’s policy on restrictions which will continue until July and most probably much longer because… reasons.

    It’s also worth re-assessing the how successful the “successful”(lucky) countries who’ve supposedly eliminated this actually are as almost all of them are now/were back in lockdowns again (NZ, China, Australia, UK channel islands) and probably will be, on and off, for the foreseeable future, with East German style borders on top of that.

  •   That columnist is sure covering all his bases: "Kharkiv Tractor Plant in Russia", something sure to trigger both Russian nationalists and Ukrainian svidomy and I am sure without even being aware of it. Based. Anyhow, these are pretty large-scale - one Twitter accounts talks of 250,000 participating in Delhi. I am hardly an expert...
  • @g2k
    @reiner Tor

    I'm sure if you wanted to emigrate to North Korea it would be possible.

    Replies: @g2k

    closed borders forever

    N.B, delete previous comment,it timed out for an edit.

    I’m sure if you wanted to emigrate to North Korea it would be possible. In all seriousness, on what planet would that lead to anything other than total immiseration? Ensure the peasants don’t leave their parish. Yarvin said something along those lines in an article last year and people seem to have been regurgitating it in these circles ever since, and it’s just lunatic. Would prefer to side with the critical theory and pronouns crowd than that.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    @g2k


    I’m sure if you wanted to emigrate to North Korea it would be possible.
     
    Now that’s an original argument. I have never heard it from liberals. Jk, of course they use it all the time.

    In all seriousness
     
    In all seriousness, international travel needs to be restricted if you are to restrict third world immigration. You are not a serious person if you don’t think it’s necessary. Also, the “peasants” need to spend their lives where they were born. No way around that.

    Would prefer to side with the critical theory and pronouns crowd
     
    Good to know.
  • @reiner Tor
    @Europe Europa

    There are also people who consider the protests dumb and are saddened by the fact that the right dumbly chose to engage in Covid-denial instead of using it to argue for closed borders forever.

    Replies: @g2k

    I’m sure if you wanted to emigrate to North Korea it would be possible.

    • Replies: @g2k
    @g2k


    closed borders forever
     
    N.B, delete previous comment,it timed out for an edit.

    I’m sure if you wanted to emigrate to North Korea it would be possible. In all seriousness, on what planet would that lead to anything other than total immiseration? Ensure the peasants don't leave their parish. Yarvin said something along those lines in an article last year and people seem to have been regurgitating it in these circles ever since, and it's just lunatic. Would prefer to side with the critical theory and pronouns crowd than that.

    Replies: @reiner Tor

  • @Thulean Friend
    Absolute STATE of jattoid sikhs

    https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1353975938812317698?s=20

    Notice that they are supplanting the Indian flag with their own sectarian one: Nishan Sahib.

    https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1353984535084470272?s=20

    Remember these things when our resident budcel crawl all up the asses of the sikhs. They aren't heroes and most of them are thugs.

    Replies: @TheTotallyAnonymous, @sher singh, @RadicalCenter, @g2k, @ivan

    What’s with the anti Sikh sentiment? As a group they’re perhaps more compatible with european culture than any other from the Indian subcontinent. Before the Corona cult lobotomised them, the French used to do this kind of thing every few months.

    • Replies: @Shortsword
    @g2k


    As a group they’re perhaps more compatible with european culture than any other from the Indian subcontinent.
     
    Why is that? I don't know much about Sikhs but I almost get the impression there is a dedicated PR team working for Sikhs. It seems like every time I read about Sikhs they are described in a positive way.

    Replies: @Europe Europa

  • Plus ça change... Just like three years ago on March 26, 2017, the protest "Freedom to Navalny!" tomorrow is to start on Pushkin Square (see above) and march down the central Tverskaya Boulevard down to Manezh Square, which is right next to the Kremlin. I attended that prior protest (as an informal observer, not a...
  • most notably, TikTok.

    Is tiktok really a hotbed of insurrection? I’m not even sure how it could be, the videos seem to have a time limit of about 30seconds and 99% of the content appears to be dancing, and lip syncing to music and lines in films. I’d have thought it’d breed apathy and insularity more than anything else. Is this just a case of politically indifferent people giving an opinion when prompted for one without really caring?

    The other odd thing about tiktok is that it’s a Chinese app, but mainlanders are the only nationality not on it in large numbers.

    • Replies: @Hyperborean
    @g2k


    The other odd thing about tiktok is that it’s a Chinese app, but mainlanders are the only nationality not on it in large numbers.
     
    The domestic version of TikTok (Douyin) is kept separate from the international version, this is the reason.
  • @Europe Europa
    @g2k

    It seems to me that it's pretty much only the UK doing this ridiculous never ending lock down thing. Most of the US and mainland Europe seem to be taking a more pragmatic and less oppressive approach not that different to Russia.

    The UK has just gone completely insane under Boris Johnson, what is happening here is not reflective of "the West" as a whole.

    Replies: @g2k, @RadicalCenter

    I think you’re right about the US, with a few exceptions, but there rest of Europe is considerably more draconian, though the duration might eventually be less. In England, there’s no 18:00 curfews, outdoor mask mandates or exercise bans, and, at least here, if you’re ever harassed by the police for being outside “I am going to get food” will get rid of them. Russia, by contrast, has delagated the response to regional governors with “Anna Popova”, their equivalent of Fauci, strongly suggesting to them what it ought to be; afaik this is mainly cancelled mass events, indoor mask mandates and nightclub closures. They’ve been reporting 27(+/-2)k cases a day since November which is implausible and means someone high up, who knows the true figure, has decided to release BS ones and browbeat the media into compliance in order to keep things open at a cost of more deaths. The Russian youth have considerably more freedom than anywhere else in Europe at the minute and the government have gone out on a limb to make it so, so having a “23rdJanuaryForFreedom” is a textbook example of them biting the hand that feeds them. If that clown was still in Germany he’d be under house arrest anyway, along with all other Germans, so I don’t know what they’re complaining about.

  • What exactly are they protesting for, to be more like Europe, where they could expect 18 months of on and off house arrest and wrecked earning potential in order to save boomers? A good proportion of Russians in my social circle who were sort-of pro Navalny have been utterly turned by this and learned to stop worrying and love the bald one, some living in Europe and the UK have ripped up their residence cards, packed their bags and gone home permanently (A few have gone the opposite way, a ratio of about 2:1).

    • Replies: @Europe Europa
    @g2k

    It seems to me that it's pretty much only the UK doing this ridiculous never ending lock down thing. Most of the US and mainland Europe seem to be taking a more pragmatic and less oppressive approach not that different to Russia.

    The UK has just gone completely insane under Boris Johnson, what is happening here is not reflective of "the West" as a whole.

    Replies: @g2k, @RadicalCenter

  • But let's move on to a far more important discussion: Raz of Chaz or MAGA Viking, who did the techno-barbarian warlord aesthetic better during their occupations of Capitol Hill and the Capitol, respectively? Both are very strong competitors to be sure. *** Points in favor of MAGA Viking: (1) Storming one of the key power...
  • @Anatoly Karlin
    @g2k

    Metaculus has a question on this: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/

    Went up from 10% to 14% in the past 24 hours. I'd say that's quite accurate, I don't think anything really cardinally changed so far as Trump's legal situation is concerned.

    Replies: @g2k

    Smarkets is giving 8% on him not serving a full term (being booted before the 20th Jan), that’s probably worth a $50-100 gamble at this stage.

    https://smarkets.com/politics

  • A big consequence of this is that the chances of “the orange one” himself going to jail have now gone from unlikely to quite likely. Anybody know what odds betting markets are giving at the minute, is it still worth putting money on, anyone place any bets beforehand?

    • Replies: @ivan
    @g2k

    If you make a martyr of him 40% of the country will come to its own conclusions.

    Replies: @Uncle Remus

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @g2k

    Metaculus has a question on this: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/

    Went up from 10% to 14% in the past 24 hours. I'd say that's quite accurate, I don't think anything really cardinally changed so far as Trump's legal situation is concerned.

    Replies: @g2k

  • I wish my readers the best of spirits and great success in 2021!
  • @Anatoly Karlin
    @Mr. Hack

    True, though "higher castes" can mean both Brahmins and Kshatriyas - the former are more intelligent, but I found I got along better with the latter, they're the closest to Europeans in mentality. But a disproportionate share of Indian intellectual accomplishment accrues to Brahmins, I would guess they're genotypically smarter than any European nation.

    The scummy stereotypes I think mostly accrue to Vaisya (merchants).

    I imagine the semi-literate comments polluting many India related threats on the Internet are mostly generated by Shudras. But you can't expect much from peasants.

    The US is special in that indeed a large percentage of Indian immigrants there are Brahmins and Kshatriyas. The Indians have a lower reputation in Britain, and indeed more of them there are from lower castes.

    Geographic origin as well as subcastes are also very important considerations. But I'm not well informed on such specifics.

    Replies: @g2k, @AltanBakshi, @The Spirit of Enoch Powell

    A lot of the the UK’s long term Indian population originated in Africa; they were brought there in the nineteenth century to staff the colonel bureaucracies then expelled by Idi Amin types in the mid c20.

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    @g2k

    Indians and perhaps Pakistanis were a significant part of the commercial class in Uganda, especially the capital Kampala, and Amin scapegoated them. He gave their businesses to cronies, which contributed to economic collapse.

  • Why is Israel vaccinating its population so fast relative to everyone else? I am seeing some smol brain takes on this. Sure, Israel might be a "small" country, but so is Belgium. Or US states like Massachusetts. But in the US it is those famous dense metropolitan centers of the Dakotas, Wyoming, and Alaska that...
  • @German_reader
    @g2k


    AK has documented the FSU and red-srate America’s ability to stay open
     
    At the cost of pretty significant excess mortality (so not just people who would have soon died anyway).

    who’ve been displaced by stupid American wars for which German society is at least somewhat complicit
     
    Britain is more complicit, so it would be nice if you offered to take a few hundred thousand of "our" Syrians and Iraqis.
    And long-lasting demographic changes are a lot more reason for "whining" than temporary restrictions which will hopefully be relaxed during the course of this year.

    Replies: @AP, @g2k

    Britain is more complicit,

    Will not disagree

    temporary restrictions which will hopefully be relaxed during the course of this year

    Hopefully they will be, though it’s now obvious that the overton window in liberal democracies has shifted to allow this kind of thing in the future so they’ll still be hanging over peoples’ heads. Fergusson pretty much said that explicitly in a times article. The double digit economic contraction will not be gone in a year though and, I’ll be willing to bet that if and when this is under control, the government niceties to stave off poverty and immiseration will abruptly stop.

    • Agree: Wielgus
    • Replies: @German_reader
    @g2k


    Fergusson pretty much said that explicitly in a times article.
     
    There are likely to be other pandemics during this century, and possibly ones considerably worse than Covid-19 (think of something like the Spanish flu which was deadly for children and young people)...how exactly do you intend to deal with them? Right-wingers should make an argument that in future restricting international travel and closing borders at the earliest sign of a possible pandemic (like Taiwan did) need to be part of the package, to minimise the risks of damaging lockdowns lasting months. But instead many right-wingers are in total denial mode and drifting into bizarre conspiracy theories or are showing themselves to be pretty callous wannabe eugenicists who think the old and sick should just die anyway. imo that's incredibly self-defeating behaviour.

    Replies: @utu

  • @German_reader
    @g2k

    I really wonder how people like you imagine a solution...just let it run through completely unimpeded (which will also kill lots of people in the 60-79 age range who aren't yet with one foot in the grave), no matter the immense strain it will put on the health care system, with all its secondary effects? What exactly don't you get about the fact that intensive care units in many European countries are already under great pressure, when we're in mid-winter, with a new more infectious variant spreading and 2-3 months to go until spring and vaccination should improve the situation. Or are you one of those idiots who think it's all made up anyway?
    imo you're childish, it's pathetic how much whining there is from many right-wingers.

    Replies: @g2k

    I really wonder how people like you imagine a solution…just let it run through completely unimpeded (which will also kill lots of people in the 60-79 age range who aren’t yet with one foot in the grave), no matter the immense strain it will put on the health care system, with all its secondary effects?

    What exactly don’t you get about the fact that intensive care units in many European countries are already under great pressure, when we’re in mid-winter, with a new more infectious variant spreading

    You’re wanting other people to pay a price for the dysfunctionality of the healthcare systems and failure to prepare.

    AK has documented the FSU and red-srate America’s ability to stay open despite completely failing to contain this disiese with considerably milder, though not non-existent restrictions and seems to have grudgingly come to terms with the fact that this is a better course than endless lockdowns. No doubt western Europe would certainly find that harder politically, nevertheless, it is certainly not an impossible feat if the political will is there to balance life years lost due to Corona Vs life years made miserable by lockdowns and utter economic devastation.

    Nobody lives forever, death rates in Germany increasing by 50% would give them the same death rates as the Baltics pre corona. You’d then probably have several years of below average death rates. Once again, not one mention of people who’s lives have been ruined by the restrictions, totally one sided. People can of course take their own percautions.

    and 2-3 months to go until spring and vaccination should improve the situation.

    Just three more months, so that now makes it a year, how much longer would you consider it appropriate for people to accept this level of disruption to their lives? One more year, three years, indefinitely? It’s as valid a question as you asking about death rates, name a timeframe!

    Germany has vaccinated 0.3 percent of its population, the UK slightly better, the speed of the rollout has been pathetic, and there’s plenty of scope for the goalposts to be moved and governments insisting on the whole population be vaccinated, not just the vulnerable before opening up; that would take the best part of 2021. If the vaccine stops serious disiese but doesn’t prevent infection then there’s scope for restrictions to drag on considerably longer.

    Or are you one of those idiots who think it’s all made up anyway?
    imo you’re childish, it’s pathetic how much whining there is from many right-wingers.

    I’ve tried to keep any comments made here civil and if you’d read properly what I wrote it would’ve been obvious that’s not the case. If you want examples of childish
    right wing whinging then incessant complaining about Merkel allowing Arabs into the fatherland who’ve been displaced by stupid American wars for which German society is at least somewhat complicit would Probably be a better example than a reasoned objection to this dystopian nonsense coming inside the overton window in liberal democracies.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @g2k


    AK has documented the FSU and red-srate America’s ability to stay open
     
    At the cost of pretty significant excess mortality (so not just people who would have soon died anyway).

    who’ve been displaced by stupid American wars for which German society is at least somewhat complicit
     
    Britain is more complicit, so it would be nice if you offered to take a few hundred thousand of "our" Syrians and Iraqis.
    And long-lasting demographic changes are a lot more reason for "whining" than temporary restrictions which will hopefully be relaxed during the course of this year.

    Replies: @AP, @g2k

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @g2k


    AK has documented the FSU and red-srate America’s ability to stay open despite completely failing to contain this disiese with considerably milder, though not non-existent restrictions and seems to have grudgingly come to terms with the fact that this is a better course than endless lockdowns.
     
    Why I adjusted my opinion (on a slider, not flip flopped):

    * More certainty over Corona's IFR - diminishing a previously large "unknown risk" factor - and which in turn has declined by a third to a half relative to spring.
    * Realization that Europeans are fundamentally unserious about containing Corona.

    That said, the faster than anticipated arrival of vaccines does dial the ideal response back in the direction of harder lockdowns - but only if we were fundamentally serious about a rapid vaccine rollout so that we can be finally done with it. But early signs not encouraging, in Europe even less so than in the US (as e.g. pointed out by German_reader, Philippe Lemoine on Twitter, etc). But either way, politically appropriate response - whatever it takes to avoid cameras videoing overflowing hospitals. BTW, that's the actual policy that most Western governments have adopted anyway, LOL.

    Some commenters perhaps an inflated view of what any of their barking on the Internet (mine included) can accomplish, and "care" far too much than is good for them.

    Replies: @AaronB, @utu

  • @German_reader
    @The Spirit of Enoch Powell


    Better question is why many are so obsessed with prolonging the lives of those with one foot already in the grave?
     
    lol, and then you wonder why people think right-wingers are heartless Social Darwinists who'd gas the sick and disabled if given the chance.

    Replies: @The Spirit of Enoch Powell, @g2k, @Pericles

    It’s a legitimate debate which you’re refusing to acknowledge and resorting to emotional blackmail. A good proportion of deaths are in care homes; in order to go into one of those places (not assisted living or something similar) you generally need to have dementia advanced to such an extent as to have very little executive function left and practically no sort term memory. This will only get worse and worse until you generally die of… pneumonia if something else doesn’t get you first. The older generation not in such a poor state owns a majority of the decent housing stock, have generous pensions and can self isolate in comparatively greater comfort. Saying that the lives of such people ought to be weighed up against the absolutely ruined life years of the vast majority of the population who won’t die from this thing, including children in their formative years who’s development will very likely be stunted, is rational and utilitarian once the epidemic has advanced to this stage.

    The fact that European governments were criminally negligent between mid-January and mid-March is history at this stage, we are where we are and the young should not be scapegoated for their failure.

    That European publics so comprehensively reject even considering such tradeoffs is a mixture of knee jerk sentimentality of the same type that argues for the right of people from every extremely poor and dysfunctional county to live and work here, the same selfishness they accuse others of and pure cowardice.

    You rant on in most threads about Muslims in Europe (a permanent double-digit GDP drop and horrific unemployment will probably dissuade a good proportion of then mind) but defend Taliban level social distancing rules (that’s not an exaggeration; brutally of enforcement notwithstanding, in the UK, going on a date has been a criminal offence for the past four months with no indication of when that will change).

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @g2k

    I really wonder how people like you imagine a solution...just let it run through completely unimpeded (which will also kill lots of people in the 60-79 age range who aren't yet with one foot in the grave), no matter the immense strain it will put on the health care system, with all its secondary effects? What exactly don't you get about the fact that intensive care units in many European countries are already under great pressure, when we're in mid-winter, with a new more infectious variant spreading and 2-3 months to go until spring and vaccination should improve the situation. Or are you one of those idiots who think it's all made up anyway?
    imo you're childish, it's pathetic how much whining there is from many right-wingers.

    Replies: @g2k

    , @utu
    @g2k


    "...the absolutely ruined life years of the vast majority of the population who won’t die from this thing, including children in their formative years who’s development will very likely be stunted..."
     
    Geronticide fetishists are getting hysterical. Vivid imagery: "ruined life years", "stunted children".

    Replies: @German_reader, @dfordoom

    , @128
    @g2k

    Someone needs to take your location and out a bullet to your head when you turn 80 or get on a wheelchair.

    , @AP
    @g2k


    A good proportion of deaths are in care homes; in order to go into one of those places (not assisted living or something similar) you generally need to have dementia advanced
     
    I wonder if you will volunteer to be euthanised if you turn 80 or somehow end up in a wheelchair.

    While long term care homes do house people with advanced dementia (as if letting them die is acceptable) they also house people who do not have dementia but who can no longer live alone due to, for example, partial paralysis, or injury. I guess you are okay with grandfather suffocating to death from Covid because he had a stroke or fell on the ice and broke his hip. I know, it’s “for the children.”

    Replies: @128, @The Spirit of Enoch Powell

    , @dfordoom
    @g2k


    Saying that the lives of such people ought to be weighed up against the absolutely ruined life years of the vast majority of the population who won’t die from this thing
     
    I think "absolutely ruined life years" is a bit of an exaggeration. In fact a wild exaggeration.

    Unfortunately that's the way debates on COVID always seem to go - both sides resorting to wild exaggeration.
    , @Autists Anonymous Rehab Camp Fugitive
    @g2k

    Don't necessarily agree with this position. But I have to point out that all replies to this argument have been kneejerk and emotional. They follow the same pattern of moral outrage that anybody who proposes "hawkish" policies to a leftist is subjected to. In the same vein as various "how about we deport YOU instead". My prediction is that the 3rd person to defend this view will be accused of having a small penis.

    Replies: @utu

    , @EldnahYm
    @g2k


    A good proportion of deaths are in care homes; in order to go into one of those places (not assisted living or something similar) you generally need to have dementia advanced to such an extent as to have very little executive function left and practically no sort term memory. This will only get worse and worse until you generally die of… pneumonia if something else doesn’t get you first.
     
    People in care homes are easier to isolate. There really isn't much of a relation, much less trade-off, between large scale lockdowns and protecting people in care homes. In some places, governments have actually instituted lockdowns and increased risks for care home patients at the same time, which is (take your pick) stupid/crazy/evil.
  • I suspect, in the UK, it’s a case of priorities; with such high percentages of people not really caring about being locked down for god knows how long, the government isn’t under that much pressure to speed things up and end the situation. Oxford vaccinations didn’t start until 4 days after approval as the healthare workers were off for the new year. Any deaths can be successfully blamed on “those pesky kids”; it’s a winning formula, so why do anything more.

  • I wish my readers the best of spirits and great success in 2021!
  • @Thulean Friend
    @Dmitry


    Instead of having any significant Jews in the UK (except a lot of Haredim in London) – United Kingdom has Indians playing the stereotypical roles of Jews, or “good minority”.
     
    The Chinese outperform all other ethnic groups on A-levels.

    https://i.imgur.com/TWlwCfq.png

    It would be interesting to see the Jewish fraction broken out. My understanding is that UK Jewry is significantly more Orthodox than in America or Sweden, and thus there is less intermarriage, so you probably get a clearer picture of underlying capability.


    It’s clear that the problem of their countries is not some “intractable” racial inability to study – rather much more complicated and contingent result of the many factors which historians had traditionally studied.
     
    That is too sophisticated for most pol-memers here to accept. I've long battled perceptions that Indians are stupid. It's not just the elite Brahmin class that is capable of being successful. Most Indians in Singapore came from a lowly background up until 1990, yet were earning close to ethnic Chinese levels. If you look at TIMSS scores for places like Mauritius, it has a huge range, with their 90th percentile on par with OECD and their 10th percentile on par with sub-Saharan Africa. Mauritius has a very large Indian population.

    By the same token, white sub-standard achievement in many areas today, meth addictions etc are self-inflicted wounds. But racists are too proud to admit that so they seek external targets or engage in futile attempts to downplay their predicament. You see the same reflex in attacking China to deflect from a poor Western response. Sad!

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Europe Europa, @g2k, @EldnahYm

    Class stratification amongst native English is absolutely massive, almost at Indian levels though less formal. GCSEs are not hard; you don’t don’t need to be all that smart to get a respectable grade, just to pay at least some attention to the teacher in most lessons and do at least some work. The white underclass does not do that naturally, schools have become increasingly spineless about coercing them to and parents less supportive when, on rate occasions, they do.

    • Replies: @The Spirit of Enoch Powell
    @g2k

    If I remember correctly, GCSEs are not standardised like A-levels and pupils have the option of taking an easier level, one which involves more coursework, hence why we see blacks outperforming whites in GCSE but not in A-levels.

    The problem with the white underclass is not lack of intelligence, but lack of discipline. It is actually very similar to those all-black schools in America where there are regular fights and acts of insolence towards the teachers, not to mention the rampant drug use (albeit outside of school).

    What makes it worse is how the authority of teachers has been eroded away in favour of authority of the parents. I personally witnessed beefy dads coming into school to shout about how their son has been mistreated by the teachers ("mistreatment" actually meant being disciplined)

    Abolishing grammar schools was a huge mistake, another one of Labour's legacies of pushing this nation towards mediocrity, not that the Tories are any better.

  • @Dmitry
    @Thulean Friend

    Great Britain is going with building the largest offshore wind farms in the world.

    Perhaps perceptions of these projects, are coloured by romanticism - as they seem like the most unrealistic childhood dreams, not least in terms of scale.

    The newest propeller turbines are each going to the size of an Eiffel Tower, and hundreds are placed over the sea.
    https://i.imgur.com/bT60VXn.jpg

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kyNKRjfrzA

    Replies: @Europe Europa, @g2k, @A123

    There’s no nimbys in the middle of the sea, probably makes it cheaper and quicker than to build them on land one delays and legal bills are factored in.
    Edit: looks like someone else beat me to it to make the point.

  • In this "summary" post on Corona 2020, I will cover some of the following. Recap what we know about Corona, what we have learned in the past year, and what policies should have been undertaken; The big picture of global excess mortality that is emerging for 2020; Discuss the vaccines, "vaccine geopolitics", and Corona's impact...
  • @dfordoom
    @128


    As for Amazon, I simply do not like a single company dominating a sector. And I also enjoy going to main street and seeing various retail shops and watching shoppers buy things there, instead of it all being online, it is healthier for the community in normal situations if people can get to interact face to face, instead of online only.
     
    I remember the good old days before online shopping. The good old days were crap. A very limited range of over-priced products. We should not sentimentalise the past too much. Online shopping is popular because it is much much better than the good old days of bricks-and-mortar stores.

    We need to accept the unpalatable truth that people like globalism because globalism is very very good for consumers. Globalism has made life better in many ways. It really is more efficient.

    Of course it has come at a price. That's the way life works.

    Economic globalism makes a lot of sense. Other types of globalism (political and cultural globalism for instance) are clearly dangerous and damaging.

    Rather than having a knee-jerk response that globalism is an evil conspiracy we need to find ways to try to get the benefits of globalism whilst minimising the deleterious effects.

    Replies: @g2k

    I remember the good old days before online shopping. The good old days were crap. A very limited range of over-priced products. We should not sentimentalise the past too much. Online shopping is popular because it is much much better than the good old days of bricks-and-mortar stores.

    Can’t disagree with this statement but there’s a certain danger to all of this. It’s enabled the Corona restrictions to be sustainable for far longer than would’ve been the case 20-30 years ago. If most internet connections were still 56k office workers would never have been sent home and the Corona deaths would have been simply accepted as fact of life. The lack of discontent and defiance from the young has been the most shocking thing about this; If you actually obey the UK’s Corona nonsense, going on a date has been a criminal offence since September ffs and will probably be so until July. There’s a sentiment amongst nerdy millennials and zoomers, who are very well represented here and our author has a streak of this, that the physical world is passe and that sitting on your ass staring at a screen all day in a tiny flat isn’t dystopian nor represents gigantic fall in living standards, but is simply the future.

    • Agree: Wielgus
    • Replies: @Wielgus
    @g2k

    In the 1990s, Sandra Bullock starred in a film called The Net in which her character is like that - she has virtually no social interactions. It makes her very vulnerable.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Net_(1995_film)

    , @dfordoom
    @g2k


    There’s a sentiment amongst nerdy millennials and zoomers, who are very well represented here and our author has a streak of this, that the physical world is passe and that sitting on your ass staring at a screen all day in a tiny flat isn’t dystopian nor represents gigantic fall in living standards, but is simply the future.
     
    It is possible to take a more nuanced view. The internet is neither all bad nor all good. It's a mixture. Online shopping has been overwhelmingly a net positive. Social media has been overwhelmingly a net negative.

    The problem isn't people buying stuff online. The problem is people wasting their lives on social media.

    It's possible to choose to embrace the good things about the online world and reject the bad side of it.

    As a shopping mall the internet is superb and has made people's lives much better. As a substitute for an actual social life it's a disaster and has devastated people's lives.
  • @dfordoom
    @showmethereal



    “That having been said, democratic New Zealand handled this crisis brilliantly.”
     
    Being a separate land mass also helps.
     
    It didn't help Britain.

    Maybe the difference is that New Zealand didn't have a clown like Boris Johnson in charge.

    Replies: @g2k

    I don’t want to defend the clown for one second, but that’s probably unfair. UK Corona policy has been de-facto in the hands of a cabal of scientists who flipped from “let it rip” to ” forever lockdown” in mid-March.

  • @Beckow
    @AaronB


    ...declaring that anyone who disagrees with you is “coping”
    ...whole “cope” way of arguing is emotive, defensive, and low IQ.
     
    Unfortunately true. AK has staked his ground back in February and won't move.

    His own numbers show that for people under 50 the increase in fatalities compared to flu is a factor of 2 to 5, with those in their 20's close to equal outcomes. That is Flu 4.0 - in other words about as deadly as 4 years of flu for non-elderly.

    I can see the emotional attachment to prolonging the lives of older people - and a few other groups with similar health profiles. By all means, keep them live as long as we can. But let's be open about it and adjust our societies accordingly: compensate the young for lost income and missed opportunities.

    This common sense argument has been pushed out from allowable discussion - and AK is doing the same here with his 'coping' canard. We have a capitalist world, if you take something away from me that you benefit from, you need to pay.

    What AK's argument boils down to is a tyranny by the old - their longevity is sacred, their assets pumped up, their comfort not disturbed. In the meantime, the young stare in isolation at blinking screens, forgo education, mating ritual, and an ability to make a living. The weak elderly are protected in the 'Zoom' jobs, watch their investments skyrocket while governments issues debt that the young will be expected to pay.

    As long as this reality is avoided we are not having a real discussion. The endless belly-aching about 'excess deaths' (almost all for people in their 70's, 80's or really ill younger ones) and complete silence about he impact on everyone else is a form of mental tyranny. It is not something that AK with his 'coping' routine should do.

    Replies: @g2k, @RadicalCenter

    To be fair he advocated lockdown in march, but not the forever lockdown that Western Europe and Blue America have adopted, but he really ought to have had more foursight. Authoritarian regimes can turn draconian policies on and off like a lightbulb, when democracies enact similar measures an entire bureaucratic eco system is created around them which makes them very difficult to repeal which was the primary reason I was against these from the start, once it has become endemic.

    I’ve said before that I agree with you mostly on this but with some caveats. The hysteria cuts across generations and is only slightly worse for those in older age groups for whom Corona is extremely dangerous to. Far too many Zoomers and millennials already spend unhealthy amounts of time staring and screens and are already indifferent and/or scared of the physical world. A large number in that age cohort who’ve got secure office jobs are quite happy to sit at home all day, a lot of the rest are extremely supine. There’s certainly going to be a generation of seriously messed up kids coming through the pipeline though, there was even before this, and it’s going to be very bad once they start getting into decision making positions. My own opinion is that the western response has fast forwarded by about 20 years a lot of unpleasant and dystopian tends.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @g2k

    Advocating for a lockdown without an exit is in effect a 'forever lockdown'. As we have seen, the goalposts move very easily.

    I agree that the hysteria is a cross-generational phenomenon and that many of the designated victims (mostly the young and healthier) have been supine. It still doesn't justify dismissing any discussion as 'coping' by 'hoaxsters', or whatever is the narrative of the day.

    The situation is very clear: we have a massive health epidemic that impacts one part of the population dramatically more than the rest. That part of the population also happens to be the main asset owning generation around. It benefits them to freeze the situation, close everything and protect themselves. It doesn't benefit the rest of the people, au contraire, most are foregoing huge opportunities, income, experiences, etc...

    There is a concerted effort to muddy up this clear situation: vague age-group statistics, alluding to 'long corona', an outright lying. The 'coping' meme is simply a part of the defense by the corona beneficiaries. All I say is that we need to discuss it in its full context, winners and losers, and policies need to take that into account. So come on, geezers, are you going to pay?

  • @AP
    @rebel yell

    Thulean Friend has a good point that the Asian countries had recent experiences with epidemics and were more ready for this one. The real comparison will be if God forbid another one comes in a few years.

    That having been said, democratic New Zealand handled this crisis brilliantly.

    Replies: @g2k, @Astuteobservor II, @showmethereal

    The British Isles crown dependencies did similarly, (maybe not jersey) and have the benefit of being run by vestigial aristocrats and financiers rather than an irritating harpie.

  • 72% of Britons support Boris Johnson’s recent decision to return to a lockdown.

    I don’t doubt this for a second, the figure, if anything, is probably higher but so what? A similar percentage probably believe that Crimea is Ukraine; you can’t have your cake and eat it. In the UK, as part of the emergency measures, ofcom has effectively prohibited the broadcast media from any dissent with respect to lockdowns, a mirror image to the situation in Russia where the broadcast media had almost certainly been “asked nicely” not to stir up panic regardless of what Putin has said. This is why most Russians, yourself and others notwithstanding, are remarkably relaxed about this and most western office plankton have gone Howard Hughes. Obviously containment would’ve been by far the best outcome, but once that fails you’re in trade-off land and European governments don’t seem to care about anyone besides wealthy pensioners*, so ruining the lives of kids, teens and young adults for months on end and wrecking their prospects to protect the former was always going to happen. The latter are too servile to seriously object anyway even when they were aggressively blamed for the second wave starting in September when anyone with half a brain could see it was seasonality.

    *The UK’s boomer gibs have a “triple lock”, this means that out of the three metrics that the government can use to increase them, the one that increases them the most is chosen. Due to the sheer number of, generally low paid, service workers losing their jobs, the average employee’s pay in the uk has gone up, so that has caused considerable increases in state pension payments (the dole for over 65s).

    • Thanks: Mark G.
  • Krasnaya Presnya Park, Moscow. This week's Open Thread.
  • @Thulean Friend
    A few writers I find worthy of keeping an eye on.

    https://lukecapital.substack.com/ - VC living in Taiwan of Chinese-American background. Focuses a lot on China.

    https://jack-clark.net/ - OpenAI's comms director who does a useful news sweep of AI-related news.

    ---

    Studio Ghibli’s Toshio Suzuki on four decades of anime magic

    Vinay Sitapati on Vajpayee, Advani and the success of the Hindu nationalist movement

    ---

    From Steve Sailer's blog: New York City Will Change Many Selective Schools to Address Segregation. The war on meritocracy strikes me as a uniquely American obsession. Michael's Sandel recent book The Tyranny of Merit is an excellent example of that.

    Given the huge cultural influence that the US has over its subcolonial entities in Europe, I expect this to come to here sooner rather than later.

    There's already a raging debate about our school choice system. Sweden has the most liberal school choice system of all OECD countries - even Chile. Some of the criticisms are fair, such as "skimming the cream" and leaving the public schools saddled with the worst students despite all schools getting the same funding. This means that the best students cost less for privately-owned schools and the extra differential can be taken out as net profit and distributed to shareholders. Almost all private schools are run as corporations with a few mega-rich owners but the funding is mostly coming from the tax-payers.

    Still, nobody is really questioning the basic purpose of the system. Nor is there any debate on abolishing the importance of test scores or grades. The NYC method of a simple lottery is pure lunacy. The fastest way to enrich private corporations is making sure the public school system cannot accomodate and grow the most gifted. Nobody wants to be stuck with the rabble.

    Replies: @128, @128, @AltanBakshi, @g2k

    The war on meritocracy strikes me as a uniquely American obsession.

    I think it’s probably an Anglo thing. The grammar school debate in the UK mirrors this, only there’s no racial aspect to it, or there wasn’t in the 1970s when most of the damage was done (by Shirley Williams; a minor aristocrat turned liberal politician). Any time any suggestion is made that public money should be spent on educating talented kids above a very low minimum standard, these types will complain that it doesn’t help the “most disadvantaged”.

    • Replies: @Europe Europa
    @g2k

    The grammar school debate was originally a "class war" issue, but if it was going on today grammar schools would be seen as representing "white privilege" and the "disadvantaged" would be blacks and Muslims, not working class people generally.

    Although this just reflects how the lefts' position has shifted generally, class war is obsolete, it's now a race war. All white British people are seen as equally privileged relative to non-whites whether they're aristocrats or live on a Northern council estate.

  • @Anatoly Karlin
    @Europe Europa

    It's almost as if centralized quarantine and universal mask wearing work.

    Replies: @g2k

    The centralised quarantine will certainly massively magnify other measures, but it was never allowed to become endemic there which seems to have made all the difference; nowhere where cases were absolutely out of control in March had successfully controlled it. As for masks; most of Europe has had the most Draconian mask laws for months and they’ve not stopped cases ballooning in wintertime. I wouldn’t use anything less than an FFP3 (n99) to sand old paint or cut up drywall with power tools etc and, given that most of the winter spread is from aerosols, not droplets, those blue things are likely to be worse than useless. Look at this guide for spray painting safety; they’re recommending an air-fed helmet to deal with dangerous aerosol particles you can’t smell.

    https://www.mig-welding.co.uk/paint-safety.htm

    They could’ve dispensed with nonsense like outdoor mask mandates and focussed on supplying at least n95/ffp3 level masks to people inside, but that would require a level of imagination they lack. Or, once it was obvious how widespread this had become, they could’ve (like most other places outside Europe and blue America) focused on striking a balance between protecting lives of the vulnerable and ruining everyone elses’ for months on end.

  • @The Spirit of Enoch Powell
    Russia banned from Tokyo Olympics and 2022 World Cup after Cas ruling

    Most Russophobic act since Operation Barbarossa.

    Westerners cannot handle doped Russian men of steel.

    https://pyxis.nymag.com/v1/imgs/308/04d/d596f4c0693744cca6d05cf9665fa59d11-16-dolph-lundgren-rocky.h467.w700.jpg

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @g2k, @Mikhail

    Given that most of the west will probably still be under covid lockdowns by then, I wouldn’t get too upset about it, or even count on them going ahead at all.

  • Some Berlin-based organization called the Global Public Policy Institute (GPPi) has compiled a global "Academic Freedom Index." It reminds one of that ranking showing the US best prepared for a pandemic, and indeed, to confirm my point, the GPPi proceeded to Block me when I made that point to them on Twitter. Evolutionary psychologist Lee...
  • I got out of academia a few years ago, there was no woke nonsense pushed on hard scientists researching uncontroversial topics then. People more senior than myself were made to do what they used to call “endless stupid courses”, on admin and teaching styles fire extinguishers etc. They were introducing an “unconscious bias” one as I was leaving; it’s probably much worse now.

  • Statue of Islam Karimov in Moscow.
  • Zurab Tsereteli?

    • Replies: @Ano4
    @g2k

    No, some British sculptor.

    Replies: @Europe Europa

  • So it emerges that I was justified in posting this graph so often. At the end of the day, the blunt and banal facts of the matter were as follows: In 1992-94, Azerbaijan was a disorganized, demoralized, and dysfunctional state with a <50% advantage in comprehensive military power (CMP) over Armenia. In 2020, Azerbaijan was...
  • The reason that Shusha fell so quickly is that Azeri spetsnats infiltrated it through by scaling the cliffs

    If that’s true then the complacency on the Armenian side was simply jaw dropping as, according to this, that’s how they captured Shusha/i in the first war.

    The Armenians weren’t as soft. Under artillery cover, they launched a surprise attack by climbing a 90 degree slope to storm Shushi in 1992 by foot. It was the same slope from which Armenian girls jumped to their deaths to avoid being raped by Azeris. With that kind of motivation, the Armenians had no qualms about turning Shushi into a mini Sarajevo.

    The entire article is worth a re-read in the aftermath of this, in particular

    “So what if they spend more money on their military than we do, it doesn’t mean anything. Let them spend ten times more, it won’t matter. The Turks don’t have a mind for machinery. They don’t know how to operate it and when they break it, they don’t know how to fix it. They’re horrible mechanics and engineers. Right now, all of their machinery is rusting out,” he said coolly.

    “So you call Azeris Turks?” I asked.

    He smiled. “No, not Turks. Defective Turks.”

    At least the level of civilian atrocities is, and will be, less this time around.

    http://exiledonline.com/feature-story-hot-afternoons-in-armenias-frozen-zone/

    • Thanks: Anatoly Karlin
  • In May 2018, Navalny wrote: Here are the latest "developments": The poor guy even had his perfume stolen. *** It is generally America's vassal states that have been tripping over themselves to recognize Biden as President-Elect before the courts or the electors have made their positions known. As did their puppets: But considering Navalny's record,...
  • @Dmitry
    @TheTotallyAnonymous


    status of Karbakh is still up

     

    Armenia is surrendering control of all of Nagorno Karabakh in this peace plan - I don't see there is much question about its status if the plan is implemented in the next months. Armenia loses control over it, and it will become a territory mostly controlled by Azerbaijan, with a smaller extent of Russian control.
    (Area around Stepanakert - Russian guarded ghetto provided for Armenian civilians and their safe passage.)

    Azerbaijan is allowing Armenian civilians of the region to apply for an Azerbaijani passport, so there is some "outward show of generosity" from Aliev in terms of the Armenian civilians and their status. But Aliev has said he won't provide any political autonomy for the region. So politically it will governed from Baku.

    Question whether the Armenian civilians in Stepanakert will accept Azerbaijani citizenship? It's possible a lot of them are expected emigrate to Armenia. If there is such an internal migration, then it will at least be useful for Armenia in boosting the demographics in its core economic centre - i.e. Yerevan.


    arrangement is not very good for Russia at all, let alone Armenians.
     
    This agreement is good for Russian power. Russian power is increasing in concrete ways over both Armenia and Azerbaijan, compared to the pre-war situation.

    Obviously, if you compare to the situation in September, then this is not good for Armenia - they are doing a military surrender of all of Nagorno Karabakh.

    However, relative to the situation of a few days ago, this is surely good for Armenia, as their soldiers were defenseless human target practice for the aerial attacks and drones. If the war had continued, there would have been a worse loss of life and equipment.

    Pashinyan has made the correct choice for Armenia, finally. But it would have been better dif he had made a peace deal earlier in the year, or even in the beginning of October after the first week of the war (they might have been able to maintain some territory a month ago, and without the loss of so much military equipment and soldiers).

    The drone situation was clear in the first days of the war. Videos uploaded by Azerbaijan in the first day of the war, showed that their defenses were technologically obsolete, and reminiscent of a past century. Once the technological disparity was clea, Pashinyan should have negotiated an earlier surrender on better terms than now.

    From the first day of war, it was clear to military experts that Azerbaijan had an absurd advantage. Pashinyan should have begun process to surrender immediately, and the outcome would have been better for Armenia.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @4Dchessmaster, @g2k

    Most of they territory lost was undisputedly Azerbaijani and depopulated, ruined; look at YouTube footage of Agdam. All of those districts go to Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan gets to occupy the bits of katabakh it took by force, Shusha/i was the big gain here, though before the first war it was mainly Azerbaijani, I think about 4k people will be displaced. If you look at AP’s map above, you’ll see that they went straight for that town and signed the deal onnce they took it, they didn’t take that much of krabakh proper. My interpretation of what happens there is that the Russian forces essentially replace the Armenian ones, but life, for the civilians remaining, can continue. Not sure what will happen with civilian government. That’s not an awful deal given how crushing the defeat was.

    It’s a massive humiliation for Armenia though, the outcome of the first war formed a key part of their national identity and allowed them some self-respect. They’re also in serious danger of a civil war as Pashinyan seems more sticky than he appeared a few days ago.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @g2k


    Russian forces essentially replace the Armenian
     
    Although it was a polite way in which Armenia has surrendered all of Nagorno Karabakh, de facto and de jure.

    In terms of de facto - Russia is the power on ground in Stepanakert and Martuni. However, in this new agreement, Russian power is dependent on Azerbaijan who surround the access points and highland on both sides. So the military control is somehow divided between Russian and Azerbaijan.

    In terms of de jure - Russia says that (today), all Nagorno Karabakh is Azerbaijan.

    It seems like it is possible that Armenian civilians there might now self-govern to some extent - although with a limited kind of Bantustan's sovereignty.

    I imagine that a lot of the population in Stepanakert will voluntarily emigrate, if they can sell their apartments at an acceptable price.

    As new Azerbaijanis are not flowing in, it might be difficult for Armenians in Stepanakert to find anyone who wants to buy their apartments. So older civilians might be financially tied to their properties there, unable to sell them even if they want to emigrate to Armenia.


    massive humiliation for Armenia though, the outcome of the first war formed a key part of their national identity and allowed them some self-respect
     
    This kind of self-respect, based on a previous but now obsolete past situation, which results in overestimating of your military abilities, or underestimation of the opponent - is not a useful one though, and Armenia should not regret the loss of such a self-respect. It wasn't useful for them, but created a trap for a future defeat.
  • Just like the Balkan Wars before World War I, there are interesting lessons to be drawn from the conflict, and as such I find it rather fascinating - if not surprising, given the quality of our chattering class - that it has receiving such scant journalistic and analytical attention. This is not just an insurgency...
  • @Mr. Hack
    @g2k

    I'm surprised that nobody here has mentioned the video clip of the impressive Botanical Garden in Batumi, and are instead disputing temperature data?

    It appears that you've been to Batumi, did you venture inside this interesting park?

    Replies: @g2k

    I’ve not been to Batumi, so these are accounts from people I know. I think the climate is such that it’s cold enough in the winter to make beach holidays unfeasible, but not sufficiently cold to kill the plants. There’s quite a few botanic gardens on the south coast of England that have subtropical plants, but I wouldn’t want to sit on a beach there all day in January. It’s also quite wet, as the prevailing wind blows in from the West off the black sea and dumps all of the rain when it hits the mountains which is why the West off the Caucasus is quite lush, but the east is Arid.

  • @Mr. Hack
    @Dmitry

    I can see your point of view. At this angle the cityscape appears to suffer from a preponderance of horizontal and vertical lines, and definitely too much clutter too. In the first clip, driving down the wide boulevard, the buildings were more spaced apart and a lot of them seemed, at least to my eye, to incorporate some nice aesthetics into their design.

    Any nice homeowner neighborhoods that you've been able to find? Once you have acquired enough funds to invest outside of Russia, you can build one of your dream homes there - I'd certainly be interested in visiting with you (not more than say a week). Anon4 seems to have just the right amount of hipster left within to make it an interesting get together too. :-)

    Hopefully, all of these silly wars will be over soon enough.

    Replies: @g2k

    It’s gone a bit seedy as of late. It’s unique selling point is the liberal visa regime. There’s legal gambling and quasi-legal prostitution, so it attracts a lot of people from the middle East who want to go there to “misbehave”. Gudauri is worth looking at, the mountains are comparable to Val Thorens if not the infrastructure; they recently extended the ski lifts down to the other side of the mountain, connecting another village to the network, (can’t remember the name, but the peasants there
    with freeholds must’ve hit the jackpot) see if there’s still any low hanging fruit. Prices might’ve gone bubble-level stupid though, I’ve not checked for ages.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @g2k

    I'm surprised that nobody here has mentioned the video clip of the impressive Botanical Garden in Batumi, and are instead disputing temperature data?

    It appears that you've been to Batumi, did you venture inside this interesting park?

    Replies: @g2k

  • @AP
    @Daniel Chieh

    Despite the very positive downward trend, Russia remains by far the world’s abortion leader:

    https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/abortion-rates-by-country

    Replies: @g2k, @Blinky Bill, @Shortsword

    It’s there any data on how early/late these abortions are? I’m off the “lesser of two evils in some circumstances” mindset with respect to this, but, without any religious preconceptions; very early abortion is pretty similar to contraception, late abortion is pretty similar to infanticide. If most are the former, it’s not something to worry about too much.

  • @AP
    @Ano4

    Medieval mindset, especially in the context of that part of the world, would be strongly religious. Taliban can be considered of that type. Azerbaijan is rather secular, it’s nationalism is probably more early 20th century in nature.

    Replies: @Ano4, @AnonFromTN, @g2k

    Have you read Ali and Nino, now might be the time if you haven’t. The book predates the Soviet Union, but, with the exception of religion, attitudes don’t seem to have changed that much. The main character swaps between using Azerbaijani and Tatar to describe himself, though that might be down to translation. It’s a good read; every character in it is hateful. Not sure if they ever found out who wrote it.

    • Thanks: AP
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @g2k

    The author of the book that you're seeking is Lev Nussimbaum. His colorful, if
    not checkered career began with his childhood in Baku. He was born a Russian Jew, became a Moslem sultan of sorts named Esam Bey, lived in Nazi Germany and even spent a good stint in Hollywood, hobnobbing with the local hoi polloi and royalty too. He wrote several books and ended his exotic career, if memory serves me correctly, taken to the pipe filled with opium somewhere on the Adriatic Coast of Italy . His colorful biography won several awards and was written by Tom Reiss, and is appropriately titled: "The Orientalist: Solving the Mystery of a Strange and Dangerous Life." A highly entertaining read, and very recommended.

    https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-zVHTdr95EJg/XJUObEAiE-I/AAAAAAAAjdA/4SJDGjW-n5o6QPjnpHnYFRjHBNuL5CmfwCLcBGAs/s1600/51f8OvUshwL._SX334_BO1%252C204%252C203%252C200_.jpg

    "Kurban Said" was one of several pseudonyms that Lev Nussimbaum wrote under.

    , @AaronB
    @g2k


    every character in it is hateful. N
     
    A beautiful book. Amazing how people can have such different responses.
  • With the beginning of the trial of 11 Muslims accused in the 2015 Charle Hebdo massacre, the notorious French newspaper is republishing the cartoons of Mohammed which got 12 of their colleagues murdered. Bernard-Henri Lévy and secularist establishment are celebrating this brave expression of free speech as a triumph of the Values of the Republic....
  • Yawn, this whole debate is very “old-normal”. Given that in a decent number of municipalities in France you now have to wear a Niqab (mask but it has the same effect) on an otherwise empty street, because of Corona and not Islam, it kind of begs the question, who cares? France is probably a couple of years behind Anglo-land on this, but “woke-capital” will now take care of any blasphemers, with the exception of a few old, indepently wealthy cranks (who’ll be gone in a decade anyway), long before any stabbings.

    • LOL: Iris
  • Along with Sputnik and some others. Which is fair enough, except that the following don't also get the same treatment: BBC Voice of America RFERL France 24 Deutsche Welle Al Jazeera (!) Al Arabiya TRT The @Russia account is labeled, but not the @Ukraine one. However, it does include a bunch of Chinese media outlets:...
  • YouTube is a bit more even handed. RT et al. get the “— is funded in part or in whole by the — government” caption. The BBC and company get “— is a British/French etc. public service broadcaster”

  • The wages of relying on hostile foreigners for your IT infrastructure: Tsargrad TV has been permanently kicked off YouTube. This isn't just some random blogger or streamer - it's an accredited Russian media organization with its own TV channel, a central office in central Moscow, and as of yesterday, around a million subscribers on YouTube....
  • Whatever happened to Rutube, from memory, in the mid 00s it had a decent fraction of YouTube’s market share even in the West?

  • These SJWs started cropping up on the Internet around 2010. By the mid 2010s, a phenomenon I had previously thought was confined to the Internet exploded onto university campuses. Since then, many of them have graduated and have began their march through the rest of the institutions. This dynamic of Old Libs getting challenged -...
  • O.T. but it looks like ak’s Twitter account has just been wiped

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @g2k

    AK is just too woke for his own good. #RussianLivesMatter.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    , @Dmitry
    @g2k

    Presumably Karlin had retweeted something from the Chinese government bots, about coronavirus, and so account is noticed by Twitter's program when they delete over 170000 accounts related to Chinese content today.

    Someone needs to contact Jack and explain he is not a Chinese bot. (Although really anyone who uses Twitter deserves to have their account deleted for the stupidity of using such a idiotic and low culture website).

    Twitter deletes over 170,000 accounts, some of which tried to spin Covid-19 in China's favor

    Twitter announced Thursday that it had shut down more than 170,000 accounts tied to the Chinese government. Experts working with Twitter who reviewed the accounts said they pushed deceptive narratives around the Hong Kong protests, Covid-19, and other topics.

    The company said the accounts were "spreading geopolitical narratives favorable to the Communist Party of China" and were removed for violating its platform manipulation policies..

    Twitter said it had identified 23,750 accounts it described as a "highly engaged core network" that were used to tweet content favorable to Beijing and a further 150,000 accounts that were used to amplify the content, for example, by retweeting content posted by core accounts.


     

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/11/tech/twitter-manipulation-account-removal/index.html

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    , @Felix Keverich
    @g2k

    This is reaching absurd levels of persecution. I'm not joking: Soviet communists for the most part were more tolerant of criticism and satire.

    , @Swedish Family
    @g2k


    O.T. but it looks like ak’s Twitter account has just been wiped
     
    COVID-19 looking more and more like the Reichstag fire.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    , @WHAT
    @g2k

    https://vz.ru/news/2020/6/12/1044685.html

    Anatoly in the news lol.

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @g2k

    Thanks, but reality is a bit more prosaic - I got shadowbanned, I was told that a temporary account deactivation sometimes gets rid of it, but it didn't work in my case.

    Link to full thread in one image: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EaP9ZsyWkAkn1z5?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

    https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/1271138164124631046

  • What you have in #BlackLivesMatter is an emerging religion, complete with its own pantheon of saints and martyrs and the latest iteration of what some have called negrolatry, or the Cult of the Magical Negro.. The latest "saint" in this religion was a highly flawed human being, to put it charitably. Career criminal, drug dealer,...
  • g2k says:

    It is a bit silly I’ll admit, though I do have some sympathy with Americans on this issue, the police there do seem quite thuggish. Nevertheless, the personal cost to myself, with my “white privilege” from all of this has been…. absolutely nothing, so for the time being, as far as I’m concerned, they can protest all they like. There were some scuffles in London, but no arson or looting. The rain here might’ve stopped it escalating. Meanwhile the Corona cult had cost me 1/4 life years and counting and is particularly keen to ensure my “young, healthy, non-obese privilege” is checked. If the former helps bring a swift end to the latter then good.

  • Just released PEW poll: America: 95,000 deaths, epidemic still raging - just as "reopening" gathers steam. China: 4,500 deaths, epidemic contained, economy humming along to the extent it can in the midst of a global depression. Like, even if those crematorium calculations were legitimate and China's deaths were an order of magnitude higher, this still...
  • g2k says:
    @sudden death
    @UK

    Such cases with all kinds of serious health complications under 60 are not that relatively freakishly rare at all among infected, considering that infection overall spread rate in population is still quite low and those cases received wider media attention, cause affected were kinda celebrities, while more ordinary people under 60 being alive, but with similar fates are not getting in the news anymore, as just deaths are already counted in hundreds of thousands worldwide, e.g. somewhat similar kinda celebrity case in UK too:


    Kate Garraway says husband Derek's COVID-19 battle is 'far from over' while praising her kids for 'staying strong' as they lead weekly Clap for Carers
    Author Derek, 52, has been in a coma for seven weeks after contracting coronavirus in March
    Before the pandemic, the TV veteran revealed the couple were set to renew their vows later this year after 15 years of marriage
    Kate's supportive husband is best known for his career as a lobbyist before retraining as a psychotherapist.
     
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-8345569/Kate-Garraway-joins-kids-weekly-salute-husband-Derek-remains-ICU.html

    Replies: @g2k

    The guy was morbidly obese so not a great example. I don’t wish him ill and I don’t disagree that for every death there’ll be several people who get very sick from this thing, but what’s the alternative? Supposing it’s eradicated from a country, then what? It’s endemic throughout the world now which means several months at least cutoff from the rest of the world until there’s vaccine. I’m not even opposed to lockdowns that much, but this “new normal” crap is beyond the pale. A 1/10 chance of hospitalisation is preferable to an impoverished police state. Our idiot government seems to want social distancing to continue for months; individuals will (and are already starting to) disobey this with impunity, but businesses and organizations will have to comply, so there’ll be no economic rebound for years. On top of that they want all incoming foreign travelers to quarantine, three months late to do any good and just as mass testing is becoming available.

    Given the hellscape this will likely produce (90s Russia with its 30 percent gdp drop wasn’t a healthy place), informing individuals of the risk and letting them decide how much they’re willing to take seems preferable.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @g2k


    Given the hellscape this will likely produce (90s Russia with its 30 percent gdp drop wasn’t a healthy place)...
     
    Life expectancy in 1930s America, a much poorer place than today's America, went up. Lessons of 1990s Russia are irrelevant for capitalist economies. Especially since even in Russia it wasn't the economic collapse as such that did in the life expectancy, as the breakdown in law and order, and above all, the end of Soviet-era restrictions on vodka sales and prices.
  • As data has crept in over the past few months, it has become incontrovertibly clear what we already kind of knew since the Princess Diamond days - that IFR is ~1%. Consequently, unless Corona mortality "hotspots" were a figment of our collective imaginations, the percentage of people who have been infected with the novel coronavirus...
  • g2k says:
    @Beckow
    To summarise: corona infects less than 5-10% of people, more under ideal virus circumstances in cold, dumpy ski resorts or in NY-London tenements. Among infected it kills about 1%, almost all over 65, with those over 80 having a 10-20% chance of dying.

    And they shut down the world, because 'corona'. This is a policy of 'do anything to protect the old' even if it means enslaving the young, a gerontocracy that would be unthinkable in the past.

    It is dawning on even the most fanatical corona fans that the data won't change. Now we hear about a 'second wave' - why only one more? Or that the restrictions stopped a disaster - one of those 'what if' historical speculations. But the best one lately is that 'we didn't know anything, nobody knew'.

    Right, who knew? One can justify anything by embracing ignorance: "I know nothing, but you must do what I say." This is one is better than WMDs, lier loans, or Putin personally flipping votes in Michigan in 2016...West is really growing intellectually. I can't wait for the next one...

    Replies: @Znzn, @g2k, @refl, @Levtraro, @The Germ Theory of Disease, @Herald, @Polymath, @Worm Critic [aka Dick Weed], @Astuteobservor II

    I half agree with you here. It’s certainly the policy, but I’m not sure it’s actually boomers driving it. Sailer notwithstanding, the most hysterical proponents of this house arrest seem to be millenial women. Almost boomers I know have the ability to put this into some kind of perspective. It kind of makes sense as even they’ve got a 90%+ chance of surviving this thing (it’s silents who is deadly to) and, if i were in their shoes, if rather roll the dice on it than spend the 10-20 quality adjusted life years I’d have left in some impoverished socially distanced dystopia.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @g2k

    The problem with the boomers - as always - is that they choose the wrong leaders. They might have individually some perspective, but as a group they have consistently followed any nonsense thrown at them. It is the infantilism that they are so proud of.

    Don't get me started on the millennial women...what the f..k happened there? It is as if a very shallow gene pool met with absurd and dystopian ideas, and it was then enhanced by a deteriorating environment. You are right, they are by far the most hysterical part of the society.

    , @Emily
    @g2k

    the most hysterical proponents of this house arrest seem to be millenial women.

    Excellent point.
    These women are a menace to us all.
    Seemingly intent on destroying our western societies.
    Neo liberalism gone mad.
    Its obvious the psychiatric community is correct in increasingly accepting these women are mentally round the bend.
    Craving the 'feel good' and ticks on their face book pages - the rush of the hormones or whatever in their pea sized brains.
    Without the slightest observation or understanding of the enormous damage their stupidity and 'me' obsession is inflicting on our society and our future.

  • So as you might have heard Facebook has banned The Unz Review from its entire site. You can't link to it on your Wall, in closed groups, or even mention it in private communications. It has become The Website That Must Not Be Named, like South Front just a few days ago - another website...
  • g2k says:
    @UK
    @dfordoom

    A year ago I would have thought your post was too broad a satire, but now I have seen endless shut-ins bemoaning other people's freedom to not be as miserable as them, and I think it underplays the issue.

    Even if it doesn't, I am certain that a lot of people at least want to give the impression that they'd prefer it if everyone in the world was locked in their homes forever.

    Replies: @g2k

    1A couple of years ago i got a new job in a different city to my own and had to rent a room. My live-in landlord had such a sedantry lifestyle I was in disbelief. He would drive about 1.5 miles to work each morning (the city was congested and with awful parking so it actually took longer than waking) before coming home, microwaving a ready-meal and eating it in bed in his underpants (at about 18:00) then watching Netflix until he fell asleep. He’s either been furloughed or is working from home now, so I doubt he’s been out of bed for six weeks. Unsurprisingly, he’s posting “StayTheFuckHome” memes on Facebook nonstop and complaining about “covidiots”. I suspect I’ve massively underestimated how many people just like him exist.

    • Thanks: UK
  • A few days ago, I joked on Twitter: Reality is, it is only boomer genocide that isn't a choice. 74% of Americans support a national quarantine, and that even includes 72% of Republicans. In France, there is a near consensus on lockdown at 96%. In Italy it is 94%. In Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro - the...
  • g2k says:

    Whilst public support for these measures is practically unanimous NOW, I suspect that if this thing drags on for months, as it’s likely to do given the extent to which it’s already spread, those percentages will drop quite fast. Given the very low recovery rate for severe corona cases on ventilators making sure enough are always available seems like a bit of a red herring.

    If Batka does actually pull this off, I wonder whether they’ll be able to close the gdp gap a bit with the west.

    • Agree: unit472
    • Replies: @dfordoom
    @g2k


    Whilst public support for these measures is practically unanimous NOW, I suspect that if this thing drags on for months, as it’s likely to do given the extent to which it’s already spread, those percentages will drop quite fast.
     
    Yep.

    At this stage most people don't realise that they're looking at the prospect of complete economic ruin. They haven't figured out that most of the stores that have shut down won't be reopening. They haven't figured out that job losses are going to be permanent. They haven't figured out that they're likely to be looking not at a short-term recession but at an economic depression from which it might takes years to recover.

    Once they do figure out that the economy is going to be just a blackened burnt-out shell they're going to get real angry.

    Replies: @utu

  • FlightRadar24 is a live map that shows all the world's commercial air flights in real time. The world is at a standstill, with the major exception of the US. Though I hear that many of these flights are empty or near empty. Nonetheless, I do wonder when we last saw such a high North American...
  • @Felix Keverich
    Traffic in Russian cities slowed down on Saturday.

    https://citymapper.com/cmi

    Replies: @g2k

    Moscow is now at the same level as London was last week. Looks like they’re about two weeks behind the uk in terms of the number of cases pp, though might be slightly better if they are testing more people. It’s a Shame they haven’t been able to avoid a lock-down. Singapore and South Korea are much less disrupted.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @g2k

    Moscow should have been sealed by the army a month ago, people prevented from leaving or exiting the city - and imprisonment for any morons leaving the home without full personal protective equipment (which airtight seals the mouth and eyes).

    Of course, nothing like this has happened, and soon it is likely there will be many deaths as a result of government's incompetence.

    Still, on the positive side, the situation is better than the UK. Epidemic's development situation in Russia, is around 2 weeks behind the UK.


    -

    As for why UK is two weeks more advanced into the epidemic than Russia? Mainly, because the UK has far more per capita interconnectivity with Europe, and particularly with Northern Italy, which was the landing point for coronavirus entry into Europe.

    But there is also the "high trust" naivete of British government, and its clown Prime Minister, who it seems now confess they had previously believed Chinese data -


    Scientists have warned Johnson that China could have downplayed its number of confirmed cases of the coronavirus "by a factor of 15 to 40 times." China had reported 81,439 cases at the time of writing...

    The newspaper quoted three UK officials, who all reported fury within Johnson's government.

     

    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-boris-johnsons-government-reportedly-furious-with-china-2020-3

    Compared to the British government - even the Russian government doesn't seem like complete idiots. Boris Johnson is this naive who would apparently "buy the Brooklyn bridge".

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Anatoly Karlin, @Philip Owen, @Ms Karlin-Gerard

  • Broke: Globalism Broke: MAGA Woke: 14 Principles of Xi Jinping Thought *** Xi Jinping has just hurt the feelings of 6 billion world citizens: China is�
  • @Dmitry
    @AP

    China regularly creates these zooneses, and it's because of lack of regulation of the food industry, allowing robber baron capitalism, and - what, from the 21st century European view, we would see as a traditional unhygienic relationship between humans and animals that has been tolerated too much by the authorities.

    This panedemic - created by China, and responded to incompetently by the rest of the world - is one of the most predicted disasters. Here is an article from 2014 about how regularly China is producing epidemics, due to the lack of hygiene regulations in the country, and how such epidemics will continue to be repeated in the future (they write in 2014). https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971214014970

    On one hand, Chinese need sympathy. Although China is having great progess in recent years, in 2020 it still a third world country (China's GDP per capita is lower than Mexico), and this is particularly in their food industry. So resources both of people and government, are not the same to enforce food industry safety, as in countries like EU states.

    For example, hundreds of thousands of Chinese were killed or injured, because Chinese milk manufacturers used melamine as an ingredient in their "milk", to save money - causing mass cyanide poisoning. After this, China made a large effort to secure foreign milk supplies and technology (for example, in response, China bought half of Israel's milk industry, Tnuva, for $2,5 billion) - showing they may learn from past mistakes, but perhaps only after many deaths.

    China's development process in understanding of hygiene and safety, is like watching Europe and America, in the late 19th century to middle 20th century. Although, it relies on importing foreign knowledge. Probably, in some decades, China will be a developed country, and with equivalent safety levels.

    As for the incompetence of the rest of the world's governments in response. Partly, this is also because they believe Chinese government data about the number of deaths and infected people. Deaths in Hubei had likely been orders of magnitude higher than officially reported numbers, and this was what netizens were all talking about already in January - until China arrested journalists reporting on the topic.

    Still, it is quite shocking incompetence form governments of countries of USA, EU, and (to less extent) in Russia as well, to not close down travel in January.

    Replies: @g2k

    Still, it is quite shocking incompetence form governments of countries of USA, EU, and (to less extent) in Russia as well, to not close down travel in January.

    Disagree slightly with this. At least with respect to quarantine, western countries’ early response to this wasn’t all that bad. Incoming travelers from affected regions were isolated and quarantined and travel stopped in reasonable time. Things really went sour when outbreaks became established in Europe; it was inevitable that some would happen and Italy was probably just very unlucky. Nobody had the nerve to cut off eu countries even when it became obvious that they were exporting cases. This, combined with a lack of testing, and denial about the scale of community transmission got us to this point. The fact that so many governments screwed up in exactly the same way will mean that this incompetence will probably go unpunished.

  • The novel coronavirus is a long disease. That's one of the things that makes it so problematic. Apart from having being at least 10x as lethal as the standard flu, and people having no herd immunity against it (so potentially up to 5x as many infectees as during a typical flu season), the average hospital...
  • @Anatoly Karlin
    Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

    Replies: @g2k

    Unsettling but hardly surprising, there’s been data coming out of China for several weeks now suggesting that once someone needs a ventilator, their prognosis is not good. Even in mid January, the recovery rate suggested this.

  • In today's federal address, Putin announced that the referendum on the Constitutional referendum - which nullifies his Presidential terms, and implicitly defines Russians as the "state-forming" people of the Russian Federation - is to be indefinitely postponed from its original date of April 22 because the "absolute priority" is to be the "health, safety and...
  • As someone who’s been renovating a house, thus doing a lot of dusty work, I used to buy these quite often. ffp2/3 (euro standard for n95) makes would cost about £1.50 each before this thing hit. Or is AK referring to the cheap surgical ones?

  • Steve Sailer has been banging the drums on how skiers seem to be extremely overrepresented amongst the ranks of early COVID-19 victims: Why Skiers Instead of Golfers? Once Again, the Skier Menace Rich Skiers Step Up to Say: Let's Get the Data Black Ski Group Hit Hard by Virus Commenting on the rise in Moscow's...
  • @Nemets
    Interestingly, some ski resorts seem exempt. Mono County, California is home to a major ski resort at Mammoth Lakes. During ski season, a sizable fraction of its population is skiers - most from Greater Los Angeles & the San Francisco Bay Area. So far, there are only 4 cases of COVID19 in the county, with 39 tests coming back negative (as of the time of this post): https://coronavirus.monocounty.ca.gov/

    The first case was a patient who turned himself into the hospital on 12 March. The second case was from a test on 16 March, Presumably these patients contracted their infections in early March, over a month after COVID19 was first found in USA.

    Pattern in Moscow seems to resemble that of California, with domestic skiers being relatively harmless compared to the international skiers.

    Replies: @g2k

    Because it spread around the resorts in the the alps specifically. Pattern is similar in the uk; my scruffy prole city has about 10 cases, but the wealthy shires surrounding it have about 150.

  • @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    In fairness, there are plenty of native-born Americans with far more radical views.

    Top voted post at /r/ChapoTrapHouse (probably biggest hard left forum): https://www.reddit.com/r/ChapoTrapHouse/comments/ej7tyn/preemptive_warning_for_all_you_fucking_liberals/

    Some of these people are at institutions like West Point: https://apnews.com/57a1fd1e2df84cfdb2fc51375815444f/Army-splits-with-West-Point-grad-who-touted-communist-revolt

    One nice thing about the Great Awokening is that it will make it harder for the US to effectively fight imperialist wars.

    Replies: @AP, @iffen, @Athletic and Whitesplosive, @g2k, @John Gruskos

    Disagree. The thing about the great awokening is that, the mantra of “invade, invite” remains unscathed by all of this, in some cases strenghthened (“we must invade iran to help out all of the strong independent women”). I suppose it’s not conducive to world dominaion in the very long term, but, in the short term, it’s riding on us’s current status which will take at least a couple of decades to erode. On top of that, European elites are more servile than ever. In the uk, Corbyn, got the le penn/putin/trump treatment from the establishment/media because of his anti-imperialism and economic leftism, despite being (or at least onowtowing to) as woke as it’s possible to be.

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    @g2k

    "In the uk, Corbyn, got the le penn/putin/trump treatment from the establishment/media because of his anti-imperialism and economic leftism, despite being (or at least onowtowing to) as woke as it’s possible to be."

    What really did serious damage was his relative neutrality vis a vis Israel and the Palestinians. This meant a concerted and well-organised stream, from both Jewish groups and the Blairites within his own party, of baseless "anti-semitism" allegations, which damaged him with low-information middle-class voters - working class voters were far more bothered by his 1970s support for Sinn Fein/IRA.

    Naturally "the Tory press" amplified these allegations - the Mail used to run several stories a day - but the usually Labour-supporting Guardian and BBC, stuffed with Blairites, were notably lukewarm in his support, while a large section of his own party sought to undermine him (one shadow minister was secretly recorded saying he was a security risk).

    In 2017, when Corbyn surprised everyone by converting a Tory Parliament to one with no overall majority, his policy was to implement Brexit as decided on in the 2016 referendum. But the Blairites, aided by a politically naive young Remain-voting membership, forced a second referendum into the 2019 Labour manifesto at the annual conference. This lost Labour a swathe of working class, Leave-voting seats in the North and Midlands - the sort of places of which it was said that they weighed Labour votes rather than counting them - including Tony Blair's old constituency. As the Labour chair Ian Lavery said, the mood on the doorstep in working-class areas was "Labour want to stop Brexit".

  • I can't summon any interest in following the Moscow protests. What was interesting in 2011-12 (when I covered the Bolotnaya protests in detail, and produced what is perhaps the most comprehensive popular English language account of Russian electoral fraud), and a novelty for me personally in 2017 (when I personally attended a couple of those...
  • The bbc has now taken to calling Lyubov Sobol ‘opposition leader’ and not Navalny.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-49218726

    Lawyer it seems: a big problem as it suggests that a non trivial chunk of the urban profeasional class subscribes to ‘neoliberalism.txt’. Even if their numbers as a proportion of the population are low, that masks much higher influence. Maybe it would be better for the kremlins to use ‘western’ techniques on these guys (destroy their careers) , if they’re serious about avoiding Yelsin ii in a few years time.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @g2k

    For local election in Moscow. This is a case of "Moscow is not Russia", but some kind of strange, rapidly embourgeozing, political scene attached to Russia.

    -

    However, all over the political conscious, Navalny will be becoming a lot more influential in the last 1,5 years.

    I think it's as trivially simple that he became a YouTuber, and now ordinary people, to the extent they use YouTube and their cookies are not only orientated for makeup tutorials or cat videos, have to watch his videos.

    It's impossible to be interested in politics, and also using YouTube, and avoid his videos now, although probably around 1/3 of the audience the videos are suggested to will click away the moment they see his face.

    Replies: @Gerard1234

    , @AnonFromTN
    @g2k

    If she or Navalni is a “leader”, I am the Emperor of the East.
    If the BBC and other MSM of the same ilk call either of these nonentities “leaders”, they must be scraping the bottom of the barrel. So much money is spent on propaganda, with such a pathetic result.

  • Sweden (Yes!) comes in for a hard time with the Alt Right and the /pol/ crowd on the Internet where it has basically become a meme. However, there's something Sweden - and the Nordics - are doing right. According to Twitter demographer Cicerone's calculations, the Nordics are the only major world region where fertility rates...
  • @Cicerone
    @Hail

    I tried to quantify IQ loss as well. In an earlier version of this table, I named it IQ loss per generation, but realized that this is based on the assumption of perfect stratification and 100% heritability, which is of course impossible, so real IQ loss is much lower than my calculated values. So I for now call it "dysgenic index". The numbers themselves are meaningless, but they are good for a comparison between countries.

    In order to calculate them, I sliced the normal distribution in parts according to education levels, so if 40% are low educated, 40% medium and 20% high, I assumed that the lowest 40% of the normal distribution are occupied by the low, the next 40% by the medium and the rightmost 20% by the high educated. I calculated the mean "IQ" value for each slice, and used these to project the next generation. Then I calculated their average again, and compared it to the average of the initial (which is 0 by definition, as we have a normal distribution).

    This index takes into account fertility differences between education levels, but also their distribution. If low educated have a TFR of 4 and highe ducated of 2, then it still depends on the percentages of each level. A country with 99% low educated and 1% high educated in this case has less of a dysgenic effect than a country with 70% low educated and 30% high educated. This is important because generally, education categories are not comparable across countries.

    Based on this, here are the eugneic indices for some countries (the lower the value, the more dysgenic. Positivee values mean eugenic fertility). I only provide the first decimal, because those are not very precise estimates:

    Denmark, Finland, 0.2 (most eugenic trend of all countries)
    Sweden 0.1
    Canada -0,5
    Egypt, Indonesia -0,6
    Japan -0,7
    Australia -0,8
    Germany, Poland -0,9
    France, Netherlands, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, Vietnam -1.0
    Belgium -1,1
    Italy -1,2
    Russia, Spain -1,3
    USA -1,4
    Israel -1,5
    Romania -1,8
    China, South Africa -2,4
    India -2,5
    Iran -2,9
    Turkey -3,0
    Philippines -3,4
    Mexico -3,7
    Brazil, Peru -3,9
    Colombia -4,1
    Ethiopia -4,2
    Haiti -5,6 (most dysgenic trend)

    Replies: @Kent Nationalist, @g2k, @Anatoly Karlin, @Hail, @AP, @Mr. XYZ

    Don’t want to repeat myself here but, as per my point above, the classifications are really really low. The low and middle percentages should be added together and compared with the high for this table to be of much use. “High” here means someone has completed high school, or it’s vocational equivalent, nowhere near ‘smart faction’ level, “medium” means high school dropout and “low” means someone who left school before 16. In the western world that only really happens with juvenile delinquents and people with very serious learning difficulties so, even if some countires do better than others, those numbers are absolutely awful for most.

    • Replies: @Cicerone
    @g2k

    That is rue, which is why I have calculated these "Eugenic index" values, in order to have a measure of what the trend really is. It would be better to have more categories at the higher end of course, but the data is as it is.

  • It says on the table that “High” is defined as post secondary. In England that means sixth form, school for 16-18 year olds; equivalent to American high school. If that definition actually does line up with ours, we’re in big trouble.

    Edit: here’s the definition
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Standard_Classification_of_Education

    In conclusion: were screwed.

  • I do realize that producing three posts a day one week, then one post per week the other, is rather ineffective. But what can one do with the vagaries of life's schedules. For now, here's another Open Thread to relieve the last one. Our ancient car broke down so we will need to get another....
  • g2k says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    @Boswald Bollocksworth

    Getting a car not in the ~top 10 of popularity is not a good idea for people on a budget in principle because whatever marginal benefits in quality you get will be swamped by greater costs in mechanical servicing. But FWIW, I am currently pondering between the Lada Vesta and the Skoda Rapid. I'll go testing tomorrow.

    Replies: @g2k

    Your biggest costs will be purchase, insurance, fuel and whatever anti-car taxes the city authorities impose in the near future (if moscow is becoming as bobo as you claim). Servicing isn’t that expensive. I’m not sure what the parts situation is like in Russia, but in England ‘premium’ marques have only slightly more expensive spares, as long as you’re not dumb enough to go to main dealers for them. You’d need to get something seriously exotic before the premium becomes unaffordable (Ferrari etc, even Porsche parts aren’t that bad) Mechanics’ labor ought to be much cheaper over there as a fraction of a moscow professional’s salary. Ever since mechanical ignition and carburetors were phased out in the early 90s car reliability has been a non-issue and fussing over it is a boomer pathology. If you want to buy a Lada out of patriotism, then go for it, but don’t rationalise. An uaz jeep would be much cooler though.

  • So apparently the US decided to step up its sanctions on the evil mullahs and gas killing animal Assad by banning the popular multiplayer video game League of Legends in those countries. Anyhow, apart from illustrating the schizophrenia of the USG - do they expect gamers to rise up against those regimes and do what...
  • @Thorfinnsson
    @Officegate

    A lot of MSFT licenses end up being invalidated because they were purchased with stolen credit cards or were illegitimately sold volume licenses. You can always cheaply acquire new licenses from Bonanza criminals, and if you simply don't want to worry about it you can pay full retail instead. Office 2019, despite MSFT's antipathy to perpetual licenses, is available for purchase.

    No experience with Matlab, but it can of course be pirated.

    My Adobe CS6 licenses from early in the decade continue to work just fine.

    Replies: @g2k

    No experience with Matlab, but it can of course be pirated.

    Use sage instead, it’s faster.

  • So protesters have stormed the Georgian Parliament in Tbilisi after a protest over Russian MP Sergey Gavrilov being allowed to address an international assembly of Orthodox Christian MPs there. The local svidomy came out with placards demanding that "Russian occupiers" go home. And soon after Georgia's President Salome Zurabishvili has called Russia an "enemy and...
  • g2k says:
    @Dmitry
    @Anatoly Karlin

    This coasting along is also outside Russia.

    Georgian restaurants opened in places like Kensington (in London). And Georgian wine in selling in some British supermarkets.

    It had some good reviews and bad reviews, so difficult to know if it is good.
    https://www.waitrose.com/ecom/products/orovela-saparavi-red-wine/583035-82645-82646

    You can buy the orange wine as well, in UK: the supermarket claim it will be good with Indian food.
    https://www.marksandspencer.com/tblvino-quevris/p/p60053880?&pdpredirect

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Anatoly Karlin, @g2k, @Gerad1234

    You’re massively overestimating the availability here. You can buy it in some of the the larger stores of the chains that stock it, with a limited choice, on the bottom shelf, next to wines from other non-mainstream (for the uk) producers. Outside of the home counties, it’s never available. It’s actually quite reasonably priced, compared to the stuff sold in east European shops, abou £6 per bottle. The last M&S i went to which stocked it had two, the yellow one and a not-terrible, but otherwise quite forgettable white. I liked the yellow one.

  • g2k says:
    @Hyperborean
    Is Georgian wine worth it? I found Georgian wines (incidentally some of them with Dzhugashvili's smiling visage on them) in a upper-scale Japanese-owned supermarket in China once, in the price scale of 350-500 yuan.

    Personally I might be a bit wary of drinking it due to safety concerns, but does it actually taste good or are Chinese consumers ripped off?

    Replies: @g2k, @AnonFromTN

    There’s a few large, trustworthy winehouses where safety shouldn’t be a concern, as long as they’re not fake; Marani, Tblivino, Teliani valley etc. Georgian spices are a different matter entirely (full of lead: either 19th century style adulteration or useing lead-solder to bodge-repair grinding mills). It’s a matter of taste as to whether they’re any good or not; a lot of them are aimed at russians and very sweet, some aren’t. They have some unique and, exotic to westerner, grape varieties though. Georgian wines in Georgia are no cheaper than French wines in France though and very expensive, for what they are, abroad. Saperavi is sold in eastern European shops in Britain for abot $15.

  • @AnonFromTN
    @Anonymoose

    As far as I know (haven’t been there since 1981), the key selling point of Georgia is that it’s cheap. But it’s certainly not France: French women don’t have moustache or sideburns.

    Replies: @Anonymoose, @RadicalCenter, @g2k

    It’s cheap, exotic-ish; more Italian-like than french (pre-khruschev commie architecture looks a bit Italian), Russaphone (if you’re white there, they’ll automatically speak to you in Russian) and has a liberal visa regime.

    • Replies: @Marshall Lentini
    @g2k


    It’s cheap, exotic-ish; more Italian-like than french (pre-khruschev commie architecture looks a bit Italian), Russaphone (if you’re white there, they’ll automatically speak to you in Russian) and has a liberal visa regime.
     
    Also, most beautiful women pretty much anywhere outside Ukraine.

    Replies: @melanf

    , @AnonFromTN
    @g2k

    The funniest thing is, even though Russia and Georgia do not have diplomatic relations since 2008, Georgia started letting Russians in w/o visas. Russia did not reciprocate.

  • @Dmitry
    @AnonFromTN

    But this is just Russian airlines which will not be let fly there, not Russian tourists - so it is a more strange policy, which seems like it will just reduce the revenue for Russian airlines, as same tourists will use foreign airlines if they want to do the same journey.

    You will be able to still fly from Russian cities to Tbilisi, just using foreign airlines.

    However, tourists will use instead the flights of Georgian Airways, Turkish airlines, Air Astana, etc - depending on your city from which you fly.

    Replies: @Anonymoose, @g2k

    A connecting flight doubles the flight time to somewhere like that and makes short breaks impractical. Especially since ukraine can’t be used for this; their choices are minksk or istanbul.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @g2k

    It does not always have to be a connecting flight.

    For example, I can see Georgian Airways with nonstop flights to Tbilisi from Pulkovo, Vnukovo, etc airports.

    So, now Georgian Airways flights will receive all the customers.

    From other airports like Koltsovo, it seems there have not been direct flights anyway, so there will be not many changes to switch to foreign airline.

    -

    For Batumi though, all the direct flights from Moscow are only Russian airlines. So now people will have to go on a long, connecting flight. And it's also Batumi where a lot of people in Moscow, were recently buying holiday apartments. (Russian holiday buyers are apparently, an important part of real estate investment there).

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Dmitry, @AnonFromTN

  • The last Open Thread went rather haywire quick (though it did end up being a very powerful thread), so I'm posting a new one now. @blatnoi - Enjoy your forthcoming trip to Kazan! While it's a city I'd like to visit, I am entirely occupied all of next week. But I'm always happy to meet...
  • It looks as if the establishment in the UK has waited until the race for tory leader was down to one brexiteer and one remainer before giving the former the “Francois Fillion” treatment.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-48727620

  • Discuss the recent Iranian attack (or "attack") on the oil tankers, and the recent Iranian shootdown of the $200 million American drone (allegedly over international airspace - Iran denies it) here. *** I have discussed the consequences of a major US - Iran war in previous posts. I don't have much more to add at...
  • g2k says:
    @neutral
    OT
    Anyone know what this is about?
    https://www.rt.com/news/462386-georgia-speaker-resigns-parliament/
    Are these protests a creation of the CIA or not?

    Replies: @AnonFromTN, @g2k

    They had an election just under a year ago where saakshvili’s party was expecting to return to power, but, instead some obscure woman who was promising to restore the monarchy won. Soros monkeys and other ngo types were spitting feathers at the time, and there were a few protests, but nothing came of them. This comes just after the karacakhy clan were forced out of armenia by mass protests and replaced by closeted atlaticists. Georgians are an odd people and their relationship with Russia is erratic; they’re ultra-conservative and nationalistic by European standards, much more so than Russians or Ukrainians. They were butchered horribly in Abkhazia in the 90s for which they blamed Russia, but then some of their most famous, influential people, even to this day are Russo-Georgeian; Tsereteli, Kandelaki etc

  • As I have blogged before (see "2.c. The Persian Gulf" in this article), Iran's best chance to substantially shut down the Strait of Hormuz is to lay mines, then target US minesweeping vessels. They are far less well defended than its capital ships, and more fragile than the double-hulled, compartmentalized behemoths that constitute modern oil...
  • @AP
    @g2k


    . I suspect that the aids rate and other social ills are a result of urbanization
     
    Lviv has 800,000 people - smaller than Donetsk but a lot bigger than Luhansk. It has a much lower HIV rate.

    Replies: @g2k

    Are there any stats for urbanization in general. I get the impression that in Western Ukraine, with a few exceptions, there are the cities, then deep countryside. In the donbass there’s lots of, probably not very nice, towns with around 50k population where most people in those oblasts live.

    • Replies: @AP
    @g2k


    Are there any stats for urbanization in general. I get the impression that in Western Ukraine, with a few exceptions, there are the cities, then deep countryside. In the donbass there’s lots of, probably not very nice, towns with around 50k population where most people in those oblasts live.
     
    You are correct. Lviv oblast is 61% urban, Luhansk oblast is 87% urban. While Lviv is a lot bigger than Luhansk (800,000 vs. 425,000 people before the war), about 1.5 milli0n people live in cities in Lviv oblast vs. 2 million in Luhansk oblast.

    This alone should not explain a three times higher rate of HIV in Luhansk oblast, 2.5 times higher rate of syphillis, over twice higher rate of out of wedlock births, etc..
  • g2k says:
    @Dmitry
    @g2k

    I don't know Donetsk and was never there, but until 2014 Donetsk was surely one of the most important, wealthy and successful cities in Ukraine, and simply one of the best cities there?

    -

    I discuss Tagil as an example of a city which has deteriorated in postsoviet years. It was remembered as quite attractive in soviet years, and yet now it is unambiguously ungroomed, shabby and creepy. I'm not saying the cultural level of the residents is noticeably low (at least on a visit), or that it is the worst city you can visit - but it is unambiguously less attractive externally, than how old people can remember it was in soviet years.

    But cities which have deteriorated since the end of the USSR, are not something so unusual and unique. Most cities improve on balance, but net declining ones are not particularly unknown at all.


    As someone who cares about air quality, that’s surely an improvement.

     

    Overall ecological situation in Tagil will be still very bad though, and it is a bit known for that as well.

    Replies: @g2k

    I’m not sure about Donetsk: I’ve never visited either. The one thing I’d noticed about it was that in Yerevan and Tbilisi (pre 2014 that is), long distance marshrutkas would advertise it on flyposters as a destination alongside Moscow, Petersburg, and Russian border towns (Volgograd, Stavropol etc), which obviously indicated that there was money to be made there. Wizzair started flying there about three years after kiev. AP will come along and say that this was a vulgar, moneyed upper-middle class able to hire tradesmen to do renovations and build dachas, whilst the rest of the population stagnated. There was, and probably still is, a lot of very unfashionable smokestack industry there; it’s one of the last places in the world that still uses open hearth furnaces for steel making, so the money made has probably been skimmed off and not reinvested. Still, steel has to be made somewhere, and not everywhere can be silicon valley. The poor people who work/worked in those plants prabably get/got about $400 pcm, so still highly profitable, even though antinquated. I suspect that the aids rate and other social ills are a result of urbanization; the population of the donbass probably reside in satellite towns of the major cities, so still urban. I can’t imagine N/Mikoliev or Odessa being much better.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @g2k

    I had never been in Donetsk. However, it is always written that, until 2014, Donetsk was a very successful and beloved city, by its residents. Moreover, the way its former residents write still about it today, reflects its former popularity.

    In terms of statistics, Donetsk region was the second most economically successful region in Ukraine after Kiev, had the second most wealthy people after Kiev, it had the highest quality of life in Ukraine after Kiev, and the most educated population in Ukraine after Kiev. This is how it was before 2014 (obviously nowadays, all this has been lost).

    Replies: @AP

    , @AP
    @g2k


    . I suspect that the aids rate and other social ills are a result of urbanization
     
    Lviv has 800,000 people - smaller than Donetsk but a lot bigger than Luhansk. It has a much lower HIV rate.

    Replies: @g2k

  • g2k says:
    @Jaakko Raipala
    @Beckow


    Decay, poverty, beggars everywhere, impossible to get on a bus, drug addicts everywhere. One can’t stay away from it. It is also quite dangerous, and definitely not very European.
     
    Actually, the West somehow manages to do decay often without visible poverty. You see those jobless immigrants somehow wearing pretty nice clothes, talking with smartphones, hanging out in cafes all day long. I walk past tons of gypsy beggars every day these days but they're surrounded by bourgeois wealth and a neighborhood in repair, not decaying buildings with water damage and collapsing facades that no one plans to repair any time soon like I saw in Estonia and Russia in the 1990s.

    The commie built neighborhoods in Tallinn turned into hellholes very fast as the USSR fell. Here's some retro Lasnamäe from Soviet times (Lasnamäe is the newest commieblock place, it wasn't even finished when the USSR fell):

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4ROZpmOUMU

    Super bleak commie blocks but at that time the USSR still had its jobs going and there's some strange retro commie optimism in that bleak landscape. Then this happened...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZKVhrzhAI8I

    ...and big chunks of the place were left in half finished state. All the Soviet provided jobs disappeared, leaving these neighborhoods full of mostly Russians who no longer had an economic purpose to be there. People with education, intelligence or something else that you can sell escaped, leaving the commie built neighborhoods to complete social collapse in the 1990s. (And it's not just Russians in dysfunction there but it's Russian heavy for the obvious reason that these commie neighborhoods were built to be filled with Russians.) A ton of people there had nothing else to do than drink or do drugs so you get this

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNxV087tQ84

    Older commie block Soviet neighborhoods like Mustamäe were no better, in some ways even more shocking as in that construction everything falls apart when no one is doing any repairs at all and nothing is being maintained. Lots of stuff there still looks like run down poverty scenes, eg.

    https://fi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mustam%C3%A4e#/media/Tiedosto:Mustamae_Sopruse_pst_Busstop.jpeg

    You can't find anything like this in Finland, Sweden etc. You can have much more dysfunction in some Swedish immigrant ghetto but somehow the economy seems to handle maintaining everything in good repair so the dysfunctional immigrant ghettos around Stockholm look much wealthier than the less crime ridden commie block neighborhoods in Tallinn. But it's all improving from the 1990s when it was all run down, much worse than this, and the poverty facades will soon disappear completely.

    Replies: @Beckow, @g2k

    I’m not sure about scandinavia, but urban decay in the late 80s-early 90s in the cities of northen England that had suffered de-industrialisation was absolutely horrific. New-Labour stopped most of the visible rot in the centres and projects/council-estates by hosing these areas with copious amounts of taxpayers’ money. Having said that, they also subjected the, privately owned, inner suburbs of the same cities to Ceaucescu-style demolition in an attempt to replicate the massive house-price inflation seen in the southeast at the time, destroying thousands of cheap, victorian terraces: scumbags.

    • Replies: @216
    @g2k

    We never bothered with that in the US. Neighborhoods are largely left to decay, while considerable amounts of money has went into downtown developments like sports stadiums; and to university campuses.

    The local public university is steeped in debt from its building boom, surrounded by speculative student housing for an enrollment increase that never happened.

  • g2k says:
    @Dmitry
    @Anatoly Karlin


    observations are closer to reality than yours, which however were quite legitimate as late as 5 years ago.
     
    There will not have been improvement in many of cities which were becoming worse. I said some examples above e.g. Asbest, Tagil, Kurgan, since in 2015, but other people can write here others.

    You can laugh about my selection, but my parents remember at the time of their youth (they do not come from there, but they remember), how Tagil was an attractive, groomed city and flourishing. Now it is quite opposite. Of course, compared to middle 1990s, it will be far safer and less collapsing. But this improvement is more like present reduction from its cosmically high rate of decline in the 1990s, than end of decline.


    Volunteers Rebuilding Dozens of Ancient Churches in Russia's North (Pskov)
     
    Well it sounds good in Pskov. But I was not in Pskov.

    having been beautified and SWPLfied.
     
    Where my parents live, there is constant investment and construction. Improvement is not everywhere or generally very beautifying, but overall there is a lot of improvement. And the most impressive and luxurious residential construction is in places where tourists or visitors will not even see (unless maybe they are lost driving on the way to Ikea).

    However, my point - it is not like this in every city.


    I get the impression you spend more time in Israel, London,
     
    When I visited Israel last year, I stay with my Israeli friend in Bat Yam. He immigrated to there from Saratov. I have not been in Saratov personally (maybe someone here knows?). But he says it is shit and deteriorates. So here is probably another example of a deteriorating city, and this is a major city.

    Now, the funny thing is that the city where he lives in Israel (Bat Yam), is shit. And he says Bat Yam is great. So it's possible his rating system of Saratov is even understating its situation.

    London and Israel are socially opposite barometers, when it refers to Russian-speaking people you can generally meet. In Israel, more are arriving (escaping) from declining and less pleasant cities. On the extreme, that's why they receive so many immigrants from Donetsk. On the less extreme, it's why they receive a lot of immigrants from Chelyabinsk.

    -

    As for what we were originally talking about. I am sure AP is correct about Lvov. Lvov will be a city with unusually high potential for the future, for various reasons (beautiful architecture, location). But I doubt, he is representatively sampling.

    Replies: @g2k

    Tagil is the russian city that’s most similar to Donetsk. Russia’s pastiche of ‘little britain’ made fun of it.

    Nevertheless there’s YouTube footage of the reverbaratory furnace chimneys being blown up, and not just left derelict, due to replacement by electric arc furnaces which is evidence that someone reasonably high up the political/economic food chain gives a toss about the place (if you’re a metal bashing town, at least do it well, with the most modern equipment), even if the electric furnaces were most likely sourced from Germany. As someone who cares about air quality, that’s surely an improvement.

    Horrors such as this have probably stopped (bypass the paywall whichever way you please):

    http://www.exile.ru/articles/detail.php?ARTICLE_ID=16405&PAGE=1

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @g2k

    I don't know Donetsk and was never there, but until 2014 Donetsk was surely one of the most important, wealthy and successful cities in Ukraine, and simply one of the best cities there?

    -

    I discuss Tagil as an example of a city which has deteriorated in postsoviet years. It was remembered as quite attractive in soviet years, and yet now it is unambiguously ungroomed, shabby and creepy. I'm not saying the cultural level of the residents is noticeably low (at least on a visit), or that it is the worst city you can visit - but it is unambiguously less attractive externally, than how old people can remember it was in soviet years.

    But cities which have deteriorated since the end of the USSR, are not something so unusual and unique. Most cities improve on balance, but net declining ones are not particularly unknown at all.


    As someone who cares about air quality, that’s surely an improvement.

     

    Overall ecological situation in Tagil will be still very bad though, and it is a bit known for that as well.

    Replies: @g2k

    , @Yevardian
    @g2k

    I'm both too lazy and too much of a brainlet to figure out how, do I just use a site like Scihub.ru or what?

  • Back in December, I wrote in Taki's Magazine: From the New York Times today: Here’s What Being a Witch Really Means By Pam Grossman June 6, 2019 You could say I was primed to be a witch from an early age. ... I’m doing magic when I march in the streets for causes I believe...
  • @Dave Pinsen
    @g2k

    Merkel “got on with life” by welcoming millions of third world men into her country.

    Replies: @g2k

    Are you seriously suggesting that a female American politician, or any politician for that matter, with a realistic chance of nomination and election would’ve done anything different? How’s the wall coming along? What’s more, as unpleasant as merkel is, she doesn’t “treat” us to the kind of incessant tales of woe and adversity that engish speaking female elites do.

  • g2k says:
    @Dave Pinsen
    @S. Anonyia


    European schools don’t waste all their resources on losers and special education students- tracking still exists in most European countries. Europeans don’t entertain various leftist and minority groups” desire to tear historical down monuments…
     
    This is true, but these are sort of lagging indicators - products of Europe’s previous homogeneity. Europe is certainly more feminist than America - more female heads of government, defense ministers, top regulators, etc.

    Replies: @g2k

    Sorry, America is ground zero for this current wave of nonsense. As someone working in tech, on the borderline between gen x and the millenials, i can tell you that wothout exception, the ‘Titania McGrath’ types are from the English speaking world and in their twenties. Foreigners with non-English-speaking accents NEVER engage in this crap. Europe may well have more females in elite positions, but they simply get on with life rather than banging on about the patriarchy or whatever 24/7.

    • Replies: @Dave Pinsen
    @g2k

    Merkel “got on with life” by welcoming millions of third world men into her country.

    Replies: @g2k

  • (1) So yes, basically everyone Alt Right OR Alt Lite is now getting their channels deleted, demonetized, or at least having some of their videos deleted. I don't closely follow the vlogosphere, but here is a Twitter thread that seems to be pretty comprehensive. It's worth pointing out that demonetization is nearly as bad as...
  • g2k says:
    @reiner Tor
    @jeff stryker

    He got killed. He had also hoped to ignite a great Islamist uprising, which failed to materialize. If that’s success, then I guess white nationalist terrorists could also hope to have lots of success.

    Replies: @g2k

    He got killed, in old age, after more than a decade in relative comfort. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia dodged any consequences at all for its complicity in 911, the us and its allies/satraps have effectively sided with aq offshoots in Syria, are closer to war with (shia extremist) Iran than ever before and anyone who criticizes islam in angloland had better be self employed and/or independently wealthy. You could be as rude about Islam/mohammed as you liked in the 80s/90s and still be welcome in polite society, so long as you weren’t abusive to Muslims themselves (If AK is to be believed, things are similar in Russia). What’s more, when ‘orange man’ leaves office, the Chinese will likely go from being ‘trade cheats’ to ‘Xinjiang genociders’, so, all things considered, obl has had a pretty good run.

  • This is a brief update to take pressure off the last Open Thread since its at 700 comments now. I am still in London. Will be flying back to Moscow on Sunday and resuming regular blogging from Tuesday. I was very happy to attend the Psychology Conference. Met many people whom I have long admired...
  • @Thulean Friend
    @LondonBob


    The global real estate boom has popped
     
    More like taken a pause, I'm afraid. Many developing countries are not going to grow very fast in economic terms but are in population. The net result is that while the share of the rich stays relatively stable, the absolute number is rising.

    Any English-speaking country will be a huge magnet for these people this entire century since English is the global lingua franca and will remain so. London is a great city and will BTFO any third world shithole, even if they can live like kings there.


    Furthermore, if you look at the fundamentals, housing prices would need to drop something like 40-50% to be where they were in relation to median incomes back in the 1970s when housing was actually affordable for the vast majority of people. I doubt that will happen as long as the borders are open and as long as the private sector has total control over housing construction, wherein it has an inherent interest in keeping supply lower than demand to boost profits.

    Replies: @g2k

    Yes, especially when you consider the fact that central banks have been cranking up interest rates for the past couple of years. If there’s ever a shock which might harm prices, you can bet they’ll slash them to practically nothing again, first time buyers be dammed.

  • g2k says:
    @Dmitry
    @g2k

    All London is expensive compared to other countries - even bad areas can be the same price as the posh areas in cities of other countries.

    But if you buy for an investment, and with the exchange rate unusually low now - I think West Hampstead is a good compromise. It's still quite nice (without bad demographics or aesthetics) and the price is not insanely high (it seems cheaper than the more famous areas).
    https://www.kfh.co.uk/north-west-london/west-hampstead/nw6/properties-for-sale/

    The thing I don't like is that it is not central enough.


    satellite town is luton

     

    I know the airport there (I have flown the plane from the Luton airport to Tel Aviv, Dublin and Milan) . Without trying to sound like a snob, I am not a fan of that place, of the little I saw. It's a combination of English industrialized dystopia and Muslim people.

    Replies: @g2k

    West hampstead is fine. I can remember being tempted by ‘the ladders’ in harringey as one of the last places where decent terrace houses (not flats) could still be had for less than a million.

    It’s a combination of English industrialized dystopia and Muslim people.

    That was probably a representative sample then. It’s about 20% cheaper than any similar sized town town in a comparable location for a reason.

  • g2k says:
    @Dmitry
    @Kent Nationalist

    What areas of London would you recommend?

    The nicest areas of London have already become rapidly expensive. On the other hand, the cheap areas - are far too undesirable demographically, culturally and aesthetically.

    A medium-price area which is interesting in my opinion, is West Hampstead, which is still not too expensive (for apartments by standards of London prices) and has quite an acceptable atmosphere when you walk around the area, without too bad demographics or aesthetics. Probably the prices will rise in the next decades there. The problem is it is not very central in the city.

    Replies: @g2k, @LondonBob, @Kent Nationalist, @Ali Choudhury, @Pumblechook

    There are no cheap areas in or anywhere within commuting distance to london anymore. It’s a choice of extremely expensive or more expensive still. The only cheap(ish) satellite town is luton which is scruffy and crime ridden, but extremely well connected. Manchester is more like what you described; expensive nice areas and cheap bad areas.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @g2k

    All London is expensive compared to other countries - even bad areas can be the same price as the posh areas in cities of other countries.

    But if you buy for an investment, and with the exchange rate unusually low now - I think West Hampstead is a good compromise. It's still quite nice (without bad demographics or aesthetics) and the price is not insanely high (it seems cheaper than the more famous areas).
    https://www.kfh.co.uk/north-west-london/west-hampstead/nw6/properties-for-sale/

    The thing I don't like is that it is not central enough.


    satellite town is luton

     

    I know the airport there (I have flown the plane from the Luton airport to Tel Aviv, Dublin and Milan) . Without trying to sound like a snob, I am not a fan of that place, of the little I saw. It's a combination of English industrialized dystopia and Muslim people.

    Replies: @g2k

  • Here is the podcast: Robert Stark talks to Anatoly Karlin about Andrew Yang and The War on Normal People Robert Stark is a Yang supporter. You can check out his article "Andrew Yang and the Post-Nationalist Future" at Taki's Mag. Brandon Adamson (website) also participated, but unfortunately he was cut off due to technical problems...
  • g2k says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    @AaronB

    No, on average, it is the less g-loaded jobs tha are more vulnerable, even if plenty of exceptions exist.

    Replies: @g2k, @Mr. XYZ

    Are you really sure about this? Whilst routine, unskilled work is certainly easier to automate, it’s also cheaper which gives less incentive without external factors (The EU’s working time directive has done this for vegetable picking). An anecdotal example: in the 80s and 90s in the UK, car washes were either automatic or coin operated pressure washers, now, thanks to the expansion of the EU, hand car washes are everywhere, staffed by Romanians and automatic ones are rare. Digital Taylorism: previously skilled jobs becoming low, skill, low paid and micromanaged thanks to the proliferation of cheap IT and monitoring software is more likely to be the job killer in the immediate future.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/25/dead-end-jobs-car-wash-regulation-casual-cheap-labour-britain-low-pay-trap

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @g2k

    I can try to locate a source. There was a study a couple of years ago about what percentage of jobs in US regions were estimated to be automatable, places like SF and NYC had the least and rural red regions had the most. There was a map to go with it, IIRC I posted it in "Our Biorealistic Future."

  • *** In approximately 36 hours I will departing for London to debrief with my MI6 handlers attend a certain controversial conference. You can look forwards to copious reporting on the latest in IQ research within the week. International travel is not cheap, especially as I didn't manage to convince my institution to pay for it....
  • g2k says:
    @spandrell
    Thanks for the mention.

    Please let me know of any good Indian restaurants in London; I'll be visiting soon myself.

    I've been to many but I was somewhat underwhelmed.

    Replies: @g2k

    Most Indian restaurants in the uk are run by Bangladeshis pastiching north indian/pakistani dishes for English tastes: lean, tender meat in gravy, no offall etc. The food from them is usually fine, but inauthentic.

    In central london there’s a small collection of reasonably priced, reasonably authentic cafes in the back streets west of Euston Station. Otherwise, Tayabbs used to be authentic north Indian/Pakistani, a short walk away from the tourist trap that brick lane but has now become become a victim of its own success in terms pf value for money, but is still quite good; byob though so very cheap drinks.

    Further afield wembly, southall or tootong are teeming with decent ones,.

  • Personally, I have a feeling that Maduro will make it to the end of the year. PredictIt odds are hovering at 50/50. Worse than 70% a month ago, but better than the 30% they gave this January. The main development since January has been a collapse of oil production, but there is good reason to...
  • @Anatoly Karlin
    @reiner Tor

    U joke, but the crisis really might be petering out.

    https://twitter.com/TheEIU/status/1123602986591240193

    Replies: @g2k, @Dmitry

    The immediate crisis might be petering out but the damage has been so extreme that it’ll be decades before they’re even back to chavez levels of gdp/capita in the most optimistic scenario possible, so a very phyrric victory at best.

  • It seems to be the one *major* country where the more intelligent - on average, and adjusting for the east/west gradient - vote for the "nationalist" candidate, Poroshenko. And just to be clear, he has for all intents and purposes captured the nationalist niche, however unlikely. His slogan: "Army, Language, Faith." Meanwhile, Zelensky talks of...
  • @Curious Person
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Edinburgh also has far more English people than Glasgow (actual Scots voted in favour of independence by a slight margin)

    Replies: @g2k

    Glasgow and Edinburgh are ‘different’. Glasgow is considered to be more authentically Scottish whereas Edinburgh is seen as being pseudo-English. Edinburgh is indeed nicer than glasgow, though the latter isn’t unpleasant (boomers tend to hype up how rough it is). A thing to bear in mind is that whilst the uk might, justifiably, be called ‘meme Island’, Scotland is that on steroids, so voting against independence could be seen as a way of ensuring that the Scottish sjwism is diluted within the british body politic thus avoiding being ruled by syriza in kilts.

    • Replies: @Curious Person
    @g2k


    Glasgow is considered to be more authentically Scottish whereas Edinburgh is seen as being pseudo-English.
     
    Which is strange considering that Glasgow is full of taigs, who are also the most fervent Scottish 'nationalists'
  • @Serrice
    I’ve always found that it comes down to the simple reality that intelligent people will vote for candidates that they perceive will expand their opportunities.

    Smart people know they’ll do well anywhere, and the more connected, liberal, and globalised the world is - the more opportunities to be successful they will have.

    Why vote for someone who harks back to an time of army, farms, smoky pubs, simplicity, and traditional values when you can vote for the guy who’ll continue allowing you to flit between universities, relationships, jobs, countries, etc at will?

    In Ukraine, Poroshenko perhaps represents that global integration and greater opportunity moreso than Zelensky.

    Of course, the same smart people don’t perceive the unsustainabilty of the system they support and the national/cultural decay it is causing, which will ultimately limit their opportunities.

    Replies: @g2k

    If you’re a smart, straight white guy in angloland, then the ‘progressive consensus’, bioleninism, poz, (call it what you want) is most definitely not something which will advance your interests, yet it’s very hard to find millenials who arent true believers. Not sure how many lectures/courses etc. denigrating the ‘pale male and stale’ or banging on about the ‘pay gap’ they need to sit through before they’ll realise this.

  • In another timeline, Julian Assange may have enjoyed long walks with Edward Snowden by the Patriarch Ponds in Moscow. Imagine that you are a dissident at risk of extradition to a jilted superpower, whose secrets you just spilled for the entire world to gawk at, and you happen to be caught up in the capital...
  • They published the Syria files in 2012 which helped discredit the Syrian government just as the civil war was getting started. That was unlikely to have generated much sympathy for him amongst the kremlins.

  • @Art
    Will the UK extradite Assange if he faces the death penalty for espionage?

    Replies: @g2k

    They’re requesting extradition for an offense with a maximum 5 year jail term to dodge this. Once he’s in the us, they’ll start piling on the very serious charges. British judges generally dislike journalists (real ones that is) and can generally be relied upon to make the ‘correct’ decision on matters like this without needing to be told: he’s f***ed.