RSSI think China sees an eventual benefit if and when the Kim’s go by the wayside. China needs Southern port access to the Pacific for its growing industrial centers in Manchuria and North Korea provides three existing sites on it’s East Coast. Of course they can’t use them now because of Kim’s mistrust of their intentions.
We don’t want a swift collapse of the regime, that’s a nightmare. There’s no way South Korea could financialy or materially support a sudden overnight absorbtion of the impoverished North.
Perhaps there’s behind the scenes planning we don’t know about?
Studies have shown that North Korea will cease to be a viable state by 2020, it’s military so decreped by that time that any invasion of the ROK would be laughable suicide. But here’s the danger…Kim’s most die hard military generals may opt that suicide is worth it and may go all for broke with invasion.
To be honest right now? The United States lacks the rapid capability to stop a full on North Korean invasion. We have 50 percent less the marintime capability that we had in 1950 and with so many world wide committments we couldn’t get enough in theater on the ground to be no better than speed bumps. Any resistance to a NKPA onvasion will depend on the ROK’s ability to fight and on hand American airpower.
As one who served in Japan for 15 years with the USN, we were well aware that the North had agents in country for years and that they were always ready to mount operations against our bases should the flag go up. The NKSOF were trained to go after concentrated soft targets on then lightly defended bases like Atsugi and Yokosuka, kill the crews who support the ships and aircraft and do as much damage as possible. The NKSOF’s best prize would be to catch a carrier in port Yokosuka for a suicide assault.
You can’t leave that possibility out of any war scenario.