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Ton Jacobs
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    My dear fellow citizens, I am the virologist, specialist in coronaviruses and respiratory diseases, whose views differ significantly from the experts who advise the government on the management of the COVID-19 pandemic. The situation is dire and I would like to offer you a clear plan for getting out of the health, economic and social...
  • COVID-19, the Kaasschaaf (cheese slicer) approach versus Vulnerability approach.

    Wathelet puts up some really good points, but then fails to avoid the trap of the Kaasschaaf approach, the Cheese Slicer approach.

    If governments have to reorganize they usually apply the Kaasschaaf approach. Meaning all the resources of the involved departments are cut with relatively the same amount. An easy approach, because everybody suffers the same. It prevents the governement from having to look for the real problems and then to provide the right solutions. As said easy to do, but dumb. If a company would do the same it would go bankrupt in a short time. Allso the big multinationals although this takes much longer.

    The Lockdown approach is typical a Kaasschaaf approach. Locking up everybody without distinction. Easy decided, doesn’t need a thorough distinctive approach. So less trouble and politicians are not vulnerable to mistakes, while purposely ignoring the Vulnerability phenomenons.

    All these kind of politicians, the MSM and the so called experts don’t show true care of people. A general Lockdown bankrupts the country’s economy and their citizens and doesn’t solve the infection problem fast enough, see Italy. Dumb again and disastrous.

    The Vulnerability approach doesn’t ignore the multiple distinctive phenomenons like age, pre-existing medical conditions, asymptomatic infected, lung vulnerabilities by polluted air and/or smoking, obesity, polluted job location, distinctions between persons in contact with, suspected of, mild symptoms, severe symptoms and in need of hospitalization.
    The Vulnerability approach is focused on these phenomenons. Thus separating and/or monitoring and medical conditioning these distinctive groups in order to save their lives. With everybody wearing a FFP2 face mask, provided by the government. Not vulnerable people work and social normally. Everybody is tested. Those who enter the country are put in quarantine, temporarily.

    China, South Korea and some others executed the Vulnerability approach mostly and with great success. Like separating different groups in different locations. Both China and South Korea tested vigorously and stimulated and relied on shared responsibility, apps and punished those who ignored their instructions.
    In both countries the government demanded people to wear masks and everybody did this, included every politician, since example behavior stimulates following. Something that Western politicians obviously don’t understand.

    China has hardly any new domestic infection arising. South Korea did the same as China but without locking down a major thing, except forbidding big gatherings. Resulting in a huge success.
    China locked down Wuhan and then only 50 other cities. Mainly because China was trying to understand what was going on. The rest of this immense country continued its economic activities nearly as normal. So people kept their jobs.

    Italy shows that the Kaasschaaf Lockdown approach only results in more and not less infected persons especially the Vulnerable ones. Wathelet finds that locking up the family and infecting all is an acceptable risk factor. To me it is playing Russian roulette, irresponsible.

    Moreover, it is clear by now that that every “corona-death” implies 1000 to 1500 infected persons. So with 1000 deaths there are over one million people infected. For Italy with nearly 11,000 deaths it means that 11 to 16 million people are infected. A general lockdown can impossible contain millions of symptomatic and asymptomatic people and still growing.

    On top of this, the COVID-19 virus will return one way or the other, mutated or not. So it is only wise to develop a herd community while protecting and medical conditioning the vulnerable ones.

    • Replies: @Alfred
    @Ton Jacobs

    I agree completely.

    All these "experts" assume that they know what the "essential" jobs are. They have no idea how complex modern society is. What is the point of "saving" people from a transitory infection if they are unable to earn a living?

    The reality is that only a certain segment of the population is at risk of dying - those who have health problems such diabetes, obesity, cancers, the immunosuppressed, the infirm elderly and so on. The other 80% of the population should be allowed to get on with its life - without obligatorily wearing masks.

    The one-size-fits-all approach is profoundly damaging to the economic structure of the country. The 20% that is at risk are generally not economically active.

    A long time ago, in Iran, a favourite punishment was to brick people up in their own homes. They could survive for weeks before dying of hunger. We seem to be heading in the same direction.

    , @Anon
    @Ton Jacobs

    I’m in California, one of the biggest population, Asian immigration, international airports, tourism, business travelers states that should be highly infected.

    But we aren’t; due to early school, entertainment, public gathering places bars, restaurants, clubs, libraries, swimming pools parks community centers, country and other clubs, and most of all workplace closings. My kid’s school closed Monday March 1. 2 weeks before we were notified the school was preparing on line curriculum and Skype lectures in case a close by was necessary

    This article is just cherry picking the very worst scenarios and claiming the entire country is affected with patients dying on hospital floors, and bodies stacked up in refrigerated trucks.

    Take all the recommended precautions but don’t believe the media manufactured hysteria. Remember Y2 K whatever the media made up about what would happen at 12:01 am January 1 2000?

    Or Katrina? Thousands of towns from Florida to Texas took care of themselves the way they’ve been doing since the first European settlements 450 years ago and the Indians before that.

    But if you read the media, the only place it hit was New Orleans, not even the suburbs and President Bush personally sent the hurricane to Nee Orleans.

    I haven’t commented much since the site focused on the China virus. I should stop reading till things get back to normal.

  • China suffered through the H1N1 coronavirus epidemic in 2008 largely because the CDC took 6 months to identify it and, as a result, 300,000 died prematurely. SARS (774 deaths) was the clincher. They created a hair-trigger alarm system, mandated post-mortem pneumonia DNA testing nationwide, and promoted the CDC head, Dr. George F. Gao[1], to Demigod....
  • @Tor597
    @Ron Unz

    I pretty much agree with everything you said.

    No matter which view point you take, it is hard to create a unifying theory of anything right now since there is still a lot we don't know yet.

    The main thing that bothers me is why was China, Italy, and Iran hit so hard. I no longer think it was a racially targetted weapon but something has to account for the difference in intensity.

    There are many countries that are pretty much doing nothing and the severity of their outbreak is mild to moderate. Meanwhile the effects on Italy, China, and Iran were truly devastating.

    It was speculated that Chinese smoking was what made their outbreak so bad, but over time that just seems like a minor contributing factor. So what was the main driver that made the outbreak so bad then?

    There being S and L variants with different virulence makes the most sense to me but there are probably other scenarios that make sense too.

    You could take the same virus that is going around everywhere, and then enhance it in a test tube to make it easier to infect people, then release it in countries you want to target.

    This is kind of like how plants are fed fertilizers. You can plant the same species of tree all over the world. But if you fertilize the trees in Italy, China, and Iran what would happen?

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @Ton Jacobs

    Ron,
    The answer is damaged lungs. So very susceptible for pneumonia diseases.

    In Wuhan and the North of Italy the air is heavely polluted. North Italy even more than Wuhan. So the longs of people young and old are damaged. The older the more damage to the lungs due to being longer exposed to air pollution. So also for this reason a higher death rate.
    Iran is different: A lot of men over the age of fifty five suffer from forbidden chemical warfare agents used on them by the Iraqi army during the Iraq-Iran War (1980-1988). All these men have damaged lungs, a known phenomenon in Iran.

    So a population in any area being for a long time exposed to air pollution have likely damaged lungs. Therefore more susceptible for COVID-19. That applies too to people working in a place that is heavily air polluted, for instance by dust.

  • The 2019 Novel Coronavirus, first detected late last year in the hub city of Wuhan, China is a rapidly-spreading viral disease, often characterized by a cluster of acute respiratory symptoms. The virulence of this outbreak has put most of China under a lockdown: over 50 million people have been quarantined in the immediate region; 40,000...
  • Excellent article! Chapeau!

    Everybody should read these facts of the truth, in order to erase the propaganda stored in their mind.
    Put in there by more or less malicious news sites like the New York Times, Asia Times, Washington Post, CNN, NBC and other main US and European news sites. Although, a few of their journalists beg to differ.

    • Agree: Ber