I must say I did expect a small natural population growth in 2012 (1.905-1.915k births vs. 1895-1.900 deaths) but I'm not really disappointed. The mortality rate for december was the 2nd best (after 2011) in almost 2 decades - despite the cold wave. Unfortunately the births were a bit running out of steam but they are almost identical to those of the last 3 years.

I also hope the births are returning to their high level for most of 2012. Some very early data for January is very promising - so for Kirov, Nizhnyi Novgorod and Ulyanovsk (all in the Volga Federal district btw). It seems the birth spike is even
more impressive than those in feb/may/oct 2012.

It is a good article and it has already provoked an angry response from the strongly anti Russian ex Labour MP Denis MacShane on its comment thread, who however (together with the other critics of the article in the comment thread) make no specific point in refutation of it.

There are three observations I would make about the article

1. It does take a perhaps rather uncritical view of Abkhaz actions. For example it all but denies that there was any ethnic cleansing of Georgians from Abkhazia after the war that happened there in the 1990s. I find that difficult to believe.

2. Though the article says quite of lot of complimentary (and true) things about Russia its overall stance is to support Abkhaz independence. There is I know a minority view within the British foreign policy establishment that dogmatic support for Georgia's maximalist position is undermining efforts to draw Abkhazia away from Russia. I suspect that the purpose of this article is to lend support to this view.

3. The article does nonetheless give a fair and objective account of the origins of the 2008 war and shows that Russia was in no sense the aggressor in that war but acted at all times in conformity with its legal obligations and with international law.

I'd really love to read it, but 10,000 words... have to call tl;dr on it for now.

Replies: @PvMikhail

It's all part of the grand conspiracy you see! LOL. Remember the Polish Military Prosecutor's Office is in on the conspiracy so of course they would deny it and put pressure on Rzeczpospolita to fire that editor and two other members of staff for daring to expose the truth!

Or rather, that is about the only plank on which the conspiracy theorists can rest their case because it is the only one which can make sense in a weird, far out way.

Already covered that in response to a Russian commentator posting that info a couple of days ago.

"I don't personally think that Russia hand a hand in the plane coming down but as I said at the time ather forces could have set up the plane to be bombed and implicate it on Russia to kick start this lnog awaited war with Russia.

The circumstances for this is perfect given that it happen in Katyn where the WW2 massacre happened and all the top government officials were on board as a precursor for Russian entry into WW2 and the time suits Britain/US/NATO geo-political asperations in installing the missile shield amongst other things.

As for the prosecuter he does not want to urk the Russians without finalised tesing and prooof to get the EU and US on the side of Poland in a murder investigation in the case."

Independent American scientists have found traces of TNT.

"The information has been earlier confirmed by leading American experts. The goverment news agency PAP said on Wednesday that Mr. Stanislaw Zagrodzki, a cousin of Ms Eva Bankowski, a victim of Russian terrorist attack on Polish presidential at Smolensk on April 10, 2010, had brought from Russia parts of her cloths. Among them was a safety belt from the attacked Polish plane. Mr. Zagrodzki sent the belt to a research center in the U.S. Traces of TNT have been found on it in 3 separate tests. The belt is now being investigated in another, more detailed test in America.

Meanwhile, a leading American scientist, Prof. Wislaw Bineda, who is now on a visit to Poland, said in an interview to a popular Warsaw newspaper, Super Ekspres, on Wednesday:

- Independent results of my studies demonstrate that the aircraft has been broken apart in the air. Everything testifies to the fact that it has been blown up. There is no doubt that traces of exposives were found on the fragments of the plane. I am convinced that it were the explosives".

http://www.network54.com/Forum/84302/thread/1351621460/last-1352008577/Bye+Bye+Russia%21%21+Polish+presidential+plane+wreckage+contains+%27high-energy+materials%27

Replies: @Hunter

Why should those who level the criticism care if Russia cares? Everyone has a position and a status, and might criticise others either for their ideals or their status. I am unwilling to accept a nation as being fully civilised if it protects religions from being offended.

That said, I'm not hostile to Russia, I'd just like it to improve along those lines, and ideally remain free of American control. Other nations have flaws too, from Germany to the US, and I'd like them to improve as well. I'm not rooting for a team (anywhere; patriotism of any sort is despicable), I'm rooting for a goal.

That "Is a deeply conservative society" thing cannot be an excuse. It's a fault. Deeply conservative societies can improve by becoming less so.

I did not use the word "colonial" pejoratively but as a factual expression. The Russian population in Ukraine has been there for centuries and in certain regions is nearly indigenous; in this, it can be compared to the centuries-old Afrikaner population in South Africa. (AFAIK Donbass had some Ukrainian villages before industrialization brought in waves of Russian settlers).

My point was that unlike Poland Ukraine has a large non--"native" (I am using quotation marks because these people have been there for centuries) population that is the same ethnicity as a powerful neighboring country. This is naturally destabilising. But outside Crimea, Donbaa, and the south Ukraine (that is, in Galicia, Volhynia, Transcarpathia, Kiev and Chernihiv regions, comprising about 55% of the country's population) Ukraine is relatively stable in spite of some historical differences.

The entire South Eastern Ukraine was conquered by the Russian Empire, settled by Slavs under its aegis, and only included in a polity called Ukraine by the Bolsheviks upon the creation of that polity by the latter. Hence the Russian speaking population in that area. Yeah, this was a result of Imperialism and colonialism but the victims here are the Ottomans not Ukraine which did not even exist.

Replies: @AP

The Orange block was corrupt and due to infighting not very competent (you are correct that Ukraine has not had statesmen, such as Putin) but the perception, at least in Kiev, is that it was not a bunch of thugs. Donbass contributes much to the country's GDP because the steel and coal is there. But on nearly every measure other than GDP - birth rate, death rate, HIV rate, abortion rate, etc. - it is near the bottom. Here is a chart of natural population growth in Ukraine:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ukraine_natural_population_growth_rates.png

And HIV rates:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Registered_HIV_prevalence_in_Ukraine.jpg

In this thesis, is a description of crime rates by region in Ukraine:

http://kse.org.ua/uploads/file/library/MAThesis2011/Iavorskiy.pdf

Rates of rape are about the same throughout the country; murder, robbery and drug-related crimes are much more common in the East and least common in the West, with the central part of the country between the two in terms of crime rates.

The perception or stereotype in Kiev - which may be an exaggeration but which is probably based on some reality - is that Donbass is crime-ridden, uneducated and corrupt and that Yanukovich is a Donbas-like person. Prior to Yanukovich's coming to power people didn't mind Donbas that much but now there is more resentment towards it because, in Kievens' perception, a horde of violent thugs has descended on the capital and they are shaking down local businesses and stealing everything.

Replies: @kirill, @Branko Stojanovic

@PvMikhail

That is a very brief article and only barely scratches the surface in fact nearly all the major events of the post Soviet period and even earlier since 79 with the war on terror and 9/11 is directly linked to our policy of control of the Caspian basin and alternative pipeline route supplies that bypass Russia through Turkey and the Balkans.

Ever wondered how the 9/11 hijackers were so easily allowed to travel across Europe and the US despite being monitored and flagged by various intelligence services both domestic and foreign?

What is the 9/11 missing link that apparently no one has actually bothered to read what the pre-9/11 intelligence warnings actually said?

http://www.vaed.uscourts.gov/notablecases/moussaoui/exhibits/defense/792.pdf

Something I have been talking and warning about for years to fall on deaf ears including Mr Karlin.

Guess who worked on Ukraines independence

http://www.voltairenet.org/The-outrageous-strategy-to-destroy

Ukraine should be an independent state at least the western region but the problem is it is mearly being used as a regional weapon against Russia hence its rapid de-industrialisation and Oligrachical control especially of transit oil pipelines that was not an issue during the USSR to weaken Russian European economic influence just like Belarus and Georgia.

Replies: @PvMikhail

While Galicia and Kiev are different politically and culturally these differences are comparable to those between, for example, Krakow and Warsaw in Poland: the people see themselves as one nation and despite their differences have sympathy for each other. While Donbas has nothing in common with Galcia, central Ukraine (Kiev) has served as a bridge between those regions. Yanukovich's presidency is undermining that, as Kievens have gotten fed up with what they perceive as Donbas gangster rule. A humorous Kieven song about this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=HUxT5ZF3pwg

Replies: @PvMikhail