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    Google and Facebook are immensely powerful, and are immensely rich because they sell huge amounts of advertising. Obviously, their ad revenue can't be due in any substantial amount to a mass delusion that advertising on Google and Facebook works. It just can't. Here's part of the immensely long transcript of a Freakonomics podcast with Dubner...
  • Second sentence is unfinished.

  • From the New York Times sports section: I reviewed Kahneman's bestseller in 2012. Thinking, Fast and Slow’s basic idea is helpful, if not terribly startling: Acts of human cognition can be pictured as falling along a continuum from intuition (which is fast and fun) to logic (which is slow and tiring). Snap judgments work well...
  • The principle referred to here as “Chekhov’s gun” is known to philosophers of language as Grice’s Maxim of Relevance, one of four basic rules for normal conversation.

    https://effectiviology.com/principles-of-effective-communication/#Maxim_of_Relation_be_relevant

    People have the right to expect obedience to it. Its violation or evasion is cheating.

    • Agree: El Dato
    • Thanks: vhrm
    • Replies: @Cortes
    @MSG

    Sometimes that cigar is, guess what, just a prop.

    Or product placement.

    Like the bottle of J&B in centre of the gantry.

  • In response to a reader's question about differences in average cognitive test scores between blacks and whites, commenter Maven points us toward the PIAAC test of adults. PIAAC is done by the OECD who also do the famous international PISA test of 15-year-olds. PIAAC in 2017 found that men average very slightly better than females...
  • How much of the difference in outcomes is due to differences in what the IQ tests measure and how much is due to “systemic racism” (presumably everything else)? What is the average per capita income of black people with scores of 85 and what is the average per capita income of white people with scores of 85? Same comparisons with scores of 100, 115, 130. I am surely not the first person to imagine such comparisons but I have not seen reports that they have been done. This will be a crude inquiry, and will be subject to various objections, some circular (e.g., attributing the scores themselves to “systemic racism”) but it will still tell us more than what we know now.

  • The 250th anniversary of Beethoven's birth in 1770 is this December 16, more or less (he was baptized on December 17, so born on December 16 is the best guess). But this being 2020, when Black Is Best and White Is Worst, the nicest thing anybody can think to say about Ludwig van is that...
  • There was a black 18th Century composer, Saint-Georges. He was from the Caribbean and worked in France. Some of his violin concertos have been recorded. They are decent enough but not masterpieces.

  • Here's the abstract to a paper that hasn't been released yet: Do Romans today look different from Italians from, say, mountain villages where there was presumably less tu
  • The body of Julius Caesar and others of his time and class would not be findable because they were cremated.

    I also understand that a large percentage of slaves and other lower class people in the city died off before they could leave descendants — it was an unhealthful environment, with the population replenished with importation and immigration.

    • Agree: Alden
  • When I look around for places to cut the federal budget, military spending looks like one pretty obvious place. The U.S. accounts for close to half of the world's military budget, and the world seems to be getting more peaceful. Cross-border military invasions seem to be declining in number decade by decade (not counting the...
  • MSG says: • Website

    Why should one infer an inconsistency between the fact that the U.S. accounts for almost half the world's military spending, and the increasingly peaceful state of the world? The overwhelming power of the U.S. and the absence of global rivals presumably has at least some effect on deterring the adventurousness of the various dictators. I am thinking of the complaints about how horrible it is that the U.S. imprisons so many people, even while its crime rate declines.

  • Surgeon Atul Gawande writes frequently in The New Yorker about how he uses statistics on national norms for various surgeries to monitor his own performance.Maybe this is what happens when you turn forty-five. Surgery is, at least, a relatively late-peaking career. It’s not like mathematics or baseball or pop music, where your best work is...
  • By sampling, one could compile good statistics on surgery in general without in fact collecting data on most individual surgeons. In any event, if this "batting average" idea were taken seriously, surgeons would have a nasty incentive to avoid operating on the riskier categories of patients.

  • A perennial controversy is over who really wrote Shakespeare's plays. Rather than get into the endless details, I got to wondering whether there are any other controversies over who really wrote something. For example, 1984 was actually written by a man named Eric Blair, but we know that. What I'm wondering is whether there are any other...
  • The Bible seems to be full of mistaken attributions (books of Moses, the four gospels) and forgeries (some of "Paul's" letters). Some people think that Samuel Clemens helped write Grant's Memoirs. But unlike the Shakespeare allegation, these cases do not involve a high status person ashamed to write under his own name, using a lower status person as a front, though the Grant case has some similarity. This would have been one Clemens book that probably would not have sold better under the Mark Twain name. The profits in any event went to Mrs. Grant.

  • So asks a commenter below in relation to the question above. First, why would one even presume that they were red-haired, see my 2007 post, or the paper in Science: A Melanocortin 1 Receptor Allele Suggests Varying Pigmentation Among Neanderthals. In humans loss of pigmentation can usually be thought of as loss of function on...
  • He’s no oil painting, but you wouldn’t call to have him arrested.

  • During my adult lifetime, there has been some improvement in how potential jurors are treated by court systems. When I was first summoned for jury duty by Cook County in the 1980s, potential jurors were treated like cannon fodder. They're basically free to the court system, so their time was wasted by stupid inefficiencies. By...
  • MSG says: • Website

    The standard reason given for the traditional system is that subtle cues revealing dishonesty or unreliability are more obvious when the witness appears live before the jury. This value is considered so high as to outweigh the advantages of the videotaping alternative. In fact, I think most lawyers would feel queasy even about subjecting the traditional system to such cost-benefit analysis — the value of live witnesses appearing before the finder of fact is considered quasi-sacred, perhaps even constitutionally protected, as under the confrontation clause in the federal constitution. Compare this with the admission of other forms of evidence. A photocopy, for example, is usually not admitted when the original document is still available.

  • The Audacious Epigone has a fun table of average incomes relative to vocabulary skills for a whole bunch of occupations. Not surprisingly, Author is the worst paid relative to size of vocabulary. Next worst is Librarian. When I was in the marketing research business, I always suggested to the Human Resources department that they try...
  • As if flouting His own Mosaic law, God is either too generous or too stingy to everyone in the universe except carpet and tile installers.

  • In Taki's Magazine, Jim Goad explains what Julian Assange of WikiLeaks is in the hoosegow for. Apparently, hell hath no fury like a feminist scorned.My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer
  • The first thing I thought of after learning how ridiculous charges are was Br'er Rabbit and the briar patch. Can we rule out the possibility that this is a collusion and a charade intended to buy time before his eventual extradition to the United States?

  • I hadn't realized before that Eugene Delacroix (1798-1863), the leading French painter of the Romantic Era, was perhaps the illegitimate son of Talleyrand, the most glamorous name in the history of diplomacy. Wikipedia says:There is reason to believe that his father, Charles-François Delacroix, was infertile at the time of Eugène's conception and that his real...
  • There was also speculation, vaguely supported by Plutarch, that Brutus was the natural son of Julius Caesar.

  • The plot of Gore Vidal's novel Burr makes much of the speculation that Martin Van Buren was the illegitimate son of Aaron Burr.

  • I once read a scholarly biography of Shakespeare, which made for an odd experience since we know a fair amount about Shakespeare from property records and the like -- England having enjoyed careful registration of deeds and contracts for many centuries (perhaps more careful, it appears, than in 21st Century America) -- but none of...
  • If Shakespeare was just a front for someone else, it would seem difficult to explain how Shakespeare fooled Ben Jonson, his acquaintance and competitor. Every hostile or skeptical thought that occurred to the later anti-Stratfordians would have occurred to Ben Jonson and would have convinced him, had there been a basis for it.

  • Sometimes I get discouraged when I realize that I've been debunking dumb ideas for many years now, yet dumb ideas remains wildly popular. But think how Nicholas Wade, the genetics correspondent of the New York Times, must feel. He has the top soapbox in the world for educating the public, the New York Times, and he...
  • MSG says:

    Two more Bible incidents:

    In Exodus 32, the Israelites scandalously get drunk and party in celebration of Aaron's crafting of the Golden Calf. In 1 Samuel chapter 1, the priest is worried that Hannah has scandalously entered the temple drunk. Hannah explains that she is not drunk, merely in an emotional state.

    The neighboring Egyptians and Mesopotamians drank beer and wine. In the Gilgamesh story, wine drinking is characterized as a sign of civilized status — Gilgamesh's wild man friend had to be taught to enjoy it.

  • Have you ever noticed how the musical Fiddler of the Roof has the same basic set-up as Jane Austen's Pride and Prejudice: man has five unmarried daughters without doweries? Fiddler is Pride, with Elizabeth's father Mr. Bennett turned into the main character, Tevye.Over the last decade, Pride and Prejudice has become the most cited literary...
  • Deformed or otherwise unwanted children in the Roman Empire were exposed — abandoned to die. See, e,g.:

    http://www.stoa.org/diotima/anthology/wlgr/wlgr-privatelife249.shtml

    But it seems that exposed infants were often taken in by slave traders and sold as slaves. So I suppose a percentage of abandoned daughters ended up as prostitutes.

  • That Justice Ginsburg's dissent in Ricci managed to get four out of nine votes points out major flaws in both American intellectual life and in the Supreme Court.Some of what's wrong with the Supreme Court is structural. Justices used to drop dead of heart attacks before they aged too far into mental decline. By this...
  • MSG says:

    Article III, section 1 of the Constitution is interpreted as giving federal judges life tenure unless properly removed for misconduct ("…shall hold their offices during good behaviour"). The Democrats therefore cannot enact the reforms proposed here, even if they wanted to — a constitutional amendment would be required.

    They could, I believe, do other things, such as dilute the power of senile justices by enlarging the size of the Court. This is because the number of Supreme Court justices is fixed by statute rather than by the text of the Constitution. FDR attempted a maneuver along these lines, to dilute the power of conservative justices, but was blocked by public opinion.

    The last time a glaringly senile justice sat on the Court — William O. Douglas, at the end of his tenure — the other justices worked around the embarrassment by, among other things, agreeing to postpone cases in which Douglas would have cast the deciding vote.

  • In The Nation, art critic Barry Schwabsky, an American living in England, writes:In recent decades the philosophy of art has been much preoccupied with the enigma of why a given object does or doesn't count as a work of art. Since the challenge of Duchamp's Fountain and other readymades, according to the Belgian writer Thierry...
  • When I saw the seascapes that illustrate this post, I did not recognize them as golf courses. Rather, I wondered whether they were exhibits from the laboratory of Komar and Melamid.

    http://www.diacenter.org/km/

    It is not clear whether Komar and Melamid are unintentionally supporting Steve Sailer’s position, or whether Steve Sailer is unintentionally supporting their position, whatever that might be — they are inscrutably quasi-ironic.